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000
FXUS63 KIWX 291725 CCA
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
121 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 115 pM EDT SUN May 29 2016

A weak cold front moving across the area may cause scattered
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon...mainly east of
interstate 69. Otherwise fair weather is expected through
Memorial Day as high pressure builds in behind the front.
Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the lower to
middle 80s and lows in the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 356 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016

Weak pre-frontal trough to push through forecast area this morning
and early afternoon effectively scouring most low level moisture as
it does. HiRes guidance seems to be picking up on this with little
indication of convection today except mid to late afternoon in the
far east where moisture looks to pool slightly as theta e maximizes.
Satellite shows clearing already working into far western Indiana at
08z with water vapor showing mid level drying. Thus pcpn chances
appear grim for western and even central areas today. Best chance
for convection will be in the east as mid level lapse rates nearing
7C/km work into NE Indiana and NW Ohio mid afternoon while sfc based
instability maximizes around 2000 j/kg. Severe potential looks low
given 0-6km bulk shear of just 20-25 knots and 0-3km shear of 15-20
knots. However...with any pockets of stronger heating and expected
CAPE, could still see a very isolated stronger updraft and potential
for a strong to severe storm...conditional on convection even
developing in our area. Will maintain low chance pops in the east
this afternoon but western areas will be dry. High temps again
tricky depending on clouds and timing of frontal boundary through
the region. Still expect max temps in the lower to middle 80s with a
run at a few upper 80s in the far east. Lows tonight will be a bit
cooler along with less humid conditions as temps drop into the lower
60s and a few upper 50s possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016

Surface high pressure to build into the area on Monday providing
fair and comfortable weather for Memorial Day. Models have been
hinting at a weak short wave and slight increase in mid level
moisture during the afternoon which has sparked some occasional
light QPF in various model outputs. Given drying low levels and
subsidence with high over the region prefer to keep forecast dry at
this time with maybe a modest increase in cloudiness during the
afternoon.

Surface high to drift east on Tuesday with southwest flow developing
in its wake with increasing moisture feed once again. Subtle short
wave depicted Tuesday afternoon could spark a few showers or
isolated storms went with Superblend pops but confined to central
and western areas given model bias of being too far east with pcpn
associated with lead short waves. Precipitation chances will
increase Wednesday into Wednesday night as northern stream upper low
propagates east along the Canadian border and stronger short wave
lifts through the Great Lakes. Models continue to vary with speed
and timing of this wave along with drying in its wake. Kept a slight
chance in for Friday with a secondary short wave diving through the
region. Expect low levels will be void of moisture but cooling temps
aloft and modest forcing may allow for a few showers with peak
heating if timing is right.

Will see temps transition cooler during the period with highs
trending down into the 70s and lows in the 50s by mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

VFR conditions expected through the taf period. Wk shrtwv will
move across nrn IN this aftn with an attendant diffuse sfc cdfnt.
Moderate instability has developed ahead of the front with a plume
of >2kj/kg sbcape extending from nw OH to central IN. Hires models
in decent agreement suggesting sct shra/tsra will dvlp within this
instability plume this aftn across ne IN and with convective temps
close to being reached in this area, will add vcts for the next few
hrs to the FWA taf. Brisk sw winds will grdly veer west this aftn
with gusts in the 20-25kt range, then quickly diminish this eve as
boundary layer decouples. Drier air movg in behind the front should
be sufficient to prevent any br from forming tonight.
West winds will modestly increase with diurnal heating Monday as
sct fair wx cu develop by midday.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lashley/jt
SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley
AVIATION...JT


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 290759
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
359 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 357 AM EDT SUN May 29 2016

A weak cold front will move across the area today and may spark
an isolated shower or thunderstorm...mainly east of interstate 69
this afternoon. Otherwise fair weather is expected through Memorial
Day as high pressure builds in behind the front. Temperatures will
remain above normal with highs in the lower to middle 80s and lows
in the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 356 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016

Weak pre-frontal trough to push through forecast area this morning
and early afternoon effectively scouring most low level moisture as
it does. HiRes guidance seems to be picking up on this with little
indication of convection today except mid to late afternoon in the
far east where moisture looks to pool slightly as theta e maximizes.
Satellite shows clearing already working into far western Indiana at
08z with water vapor showing mid level drying. Thus pcpn chances
appear grim for western and even central areas today. Best chance
for convection will be in the east as mid level lapse rates nearing
7C/km work into NE Indiana and NW Ohio mid afternoon while sfc based
instability maximizes around 2000 j/kg. Severe potential looks low
given 0-6km bulk shear of just 20-25 knots and 0-3km shear of 15-20
knots. However...with any pockets of stronger heating and expected
CAPE, could still see a very isolated stronger updraft and potential
for a strong to severe storm...conditional on convection even
developing in our area. Will maintain low chance pops in the east
this afternoon but western areas will be dry. High temps again
tricky depending on clouds and timing of frontal boundary through
the region. Still expect max temps in the lower to middle 80s with a
run at a few upper 80s in the far east. Lows tonight will be a bit
cooler along with less humid conditions as temps drop into the lower
60s and a few upper 50s possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016

Surface high pressure to build into the area on Monday providing
fair and comfortable weather for Memorial Day. Models have been
hinting at a weak short wave and slight increase in mid level
moisture during the afternoon which has sparked some occasional
light QPF in various model outputs. Given drying low levels and
subsidence with high over the region prefer to keep forecast dry at
this time with maybe a modest increase in cloudiness during the
afternoon.

Surface high to drift east on Tuesday with southwest flow developing
in its wake with increasing moisture feed once again. Subtle short
wave depicted Tuesday afternoon could spark a few showers or
isolated storms went with Superblend pops but confined to central
and western areas given model bias of being too far east with pcpn
associated with lead short waves. Precipitation chances will
increase Wednesday into Wednesday night as northern stream upper low
propagates east along the Canadian border and stronger short wave
lifts through the Great Lakes. Models continue to vary with speed
and timing of this wave along with drying in its wake. Kept a slight
chance in for Friday with a secondary short wave diving through the
region. Expect low levels will be void of moisture but cooling temps
aloft and modest forcing may allow for a few showers with peak
heating if timing is right.

Will see temps transition cooler during the period with highs
trending down into the 70s and lows in the 50s by mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 143 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016

VFR met conditions to persist through the forecast period. While
vcsh/vcts chances exist after about 20 UTC timeframe...point
chances remain too low for inclusion at this time...with the most
probable focus for convective initiation to be from north central
Ohio into east central Indiana...well east of northern Indiana
terminals.


&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lashley
SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley
AVIATION...Murphy


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 290602
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
202 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1032 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

A weak cold front will move across the area Sunday afternoon and may
spark an isolated shower or thunderstorm otherwise fair weather is
expected for Memorial Day as high pressure builds in behind the
front. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the lower
to middle 80s and lows in the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 615 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

As was the case yda evening...lack of sfc based instability within
poorly defined theta-e ridge alg w/warm temps aloft and lackluster
forcing curtailing more erstwhile conv dvlpmnt. As such and in
reflection of nr term CAMS guidance will truncate extent of prior
pops overnight. Upstream arc of vigorous convn acrs wrn IL will
decay w/ewd extent yet still poses a isold shra threat aft 03Z far
west. Otrws remainder of fcst on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Warm/moist conditions and low chances for showers/storms will
remain the weather story through Sunday afternoon as the region
remains in warm sector. Low chances (20-40%) for widely scattered
showers/isolated thunder into the early evening mainly confined to
northeast IN and northwest OH where nearly 1000 j/kg of SBCAPE is
available for a weak upper wave lifting northeast within mid-level
theta-e plume/LLJ core downstream of a well defined shortwave
tracking into the Upper Midwest. Mainly dry/mild otherwise into
tonight with expectations for convection that fires late afternoon
across Iowa/western Illinois on eastern fringe of Upper Midwest
low pressure system to weaken/fall apart before reaching Indiana.

The northern stream finally gets involved enough to kick
open/weakening Upper Midwest shortwave east into the Great Lakes on
Sunday. This feature will force a cold front southeast into the area
Sunday afternoon bringing additional low chances for convection.
However, there will once again be substantial limiting factors for
more widespread/organized development along this feature as deeper
moisture, more favorable upper level support, and pre-frontal
trough likely exits east by peak heating. There is the potential
for moderate destabilization pre-frontal, but only around 20-25
knots of 0-6 km bulk shear suggest an isolated strong-severe storm
at best if storms initiate.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

System will exit off to the east in flattened flow leaving weak
boundary over or just south of the local area by Monday
afternoon. Previous model cycles were more aggressive in forcing
cold front south of the area while some of the new 12z guidance
hangs up front/instability gradient over far west/southwest zones.
With lack of any upper level support, drying, and model
differences will not introduce low PoPs for mid-late afternoon
convection Monday. Ridging/drying will likely hang on into early
Tuesday before warm/moist southwest flow becomes reestablished in
advance of the next PV anomaly modeled to drop east-southeast from
the Dakotas-Upper Midwest Wednesday to the Great Lakes by
Thursday-Friday. The best chance for showers/storms per last
several model cycles looks to be later Wednesday into Thursday
with the primary cold frontal passage. Otherwise, temperatures are
expected to remain above normal through Thursday, then trending
closer to normal thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 143 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016

VFR met conditions to persist through the forecast period. While
vcsh/vcts chances exist after about 20 UTC timeframe...point
chances remain too low for inclusion at this time...with the most
probable focus for convective initiation to be from north central
Ohio into east central Indiana...well east of northern Indiana
terminals.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Murphy


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 290233
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1032 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1032 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

A weak cold front will move across the area Sunday afternoon and may
spark an isolated shower or thunderstorm otherwise fair weather is
expected for Memorial Day as high pressure builds in behind the
front. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the lower
to middle 80s and lows in the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 615 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

As was the case yda evening...lack of sfc based instability within
poorly defined theta-e ridge alg w/warm temps aloft and lackluster
forcing curtailing more erstwhile conv dvlpmnt. As such and in
reflection of nr term CAMS guidance will truncate extent of prior
pops overnight. Upstream arc of vigorous convn acrs wrn IL will
decay w/ewd extent yet still poses a isold shra threat aft 03Z far
west. Otrws remainder of fcst on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Warm/moist conditions and low chances for showers/storms will
remain the weather story through Sunday afternoon as the region
remains in warm sector. Low chances (20-40%) for widely scattered
showers/isolated thunder into the early evening mainly confined to
northeast IN and northwest OH where nearly 1000 j/kg of SBCAPE is
available for a weak upper wave lifting northeast within mid-level
theta-e plume/LLJ core downstream of a well defined shortwave
tracking into the Upper Midwest. Mainly dry/mild otherwise into
tonight with expectations for convection that fires late afternoon
across Iowa/western Illinois on eastern fringe of Upper Midwest
low pressure system to weaken/fall apart before reaching Indiana.

The northern stream finally gets involved enough to kick
open/weakening Upper Midwest shortwave east into the Great Lakes on
Sunday. This feature will force a cold front southeast into the area
Sunday afternoon bringing additional low chances for convection.
However, there will once again be substantial limiting factors for
more widespread/organized development along this feature as deeper
moisture, more favorable upper level support, and pre-frontal
trough likely exits east by peak heating. There is the potential
for moderate destabilization pre-frontal, but only around 20-25
knots of 0-6 km bulk shear suggest an isolated strong-severe storm
at best if storms initiate.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

System will exit off to the east in flattened flow leaving weak
boundary over or just south of the local area by Monday
afternoon. Previous model cycles were more aggressive in forcing
cold front south of the area while some of the new 12z guidance
hangs up front/instability gradient over far west/southwest zones.
With lack of any upper level support, drying, and model
differences will not introduce low PoPs for mid-late afternoon
convection Monday. Ridging/drying will likely hang on into early
Tuesday before warm/moist southwest flow becomes reestablished in
advance of the next PV anomaly modeled to drop east-southeast from
the Dakotas-Upper Midwest Wednesday to the Great Lakes by
Thursday-Friday. The best chance for showers/storms per last
several model cycles looks to be later Wednesday into Thursday
with the primary cold frontal passage. Otherwise, temperatures are
expected to remain above normal through Thursday, then trending
closer to normal thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Sct shra and a few ts expected to develop this aftn as a wk
shrtwv moves rapidly ne from the lwr/mid MS Valley across IN. A
little strong shrtwv expected to move fm w-e across the area
Sunday, but decreasing moisture in advance of the system supports
not adding shra/ts mention to tafs attm. Otrws, vfr conditions
should cont with moderately strong southerly flow grdly veering to
west on Sunday.


&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...JT


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 281740
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
140 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected in the
area this afternoon as a weak upper air disturbance moves through.
The shower activity will diminish tonight. A weak cold front will
move across the area Sunday bringing a renewed chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Fair weather is expected for Memorial Day as
high pressure builds in behind the front. Temperatures will remain
above normal with highs in the lower to middle 80s and lows in the
lower to middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 401 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

More of the same in the short term period as warm and moist airmass
remains in place with only subtle short waves providing any
mechanism for ascent. Satellite shows a subtle short wave lifting
north through central Indiana early this morning within modest theta
E axis. This has led to a few showers over central Indiana. Hires
models lift this area of pcpn north again today similar to
yesterday. Isolated showers and maybe an isolated tsra this morning
with these features. Atmosphere then becomes unstable again this
afternoon with CAPEs in the 2-3K J/kg range. Models continue to
develop afternoon convection and must once again include low chance
pops given instability and potential for weak short wave. Slightly
better moisture axis shifts eastward today and models indicating
best potential for convection to be in the east. Loss of diurnal
heating tonight will diminish most convection. Focus will shift back
west late as slightly stronger short wave and surface cold front
begin to approach. High temps today will again be in the 80s
with mid 80s possible again depending on amount of clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 401 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Upper low expected to lift northeast into the western Great Lakes on
Sunday while dampening. Associated weak surface cold front will move
across the area. Weak low level convergence coupled with afternoon
CAPE values of 2-3K j/kg and 0-6km bulk shear around 30 knots could
allow for a few strong to severe storms. Timing suggest eastern
areas but models not overly aggressive with convective development.
Maintained low to mid chance pops with highest in the east during
the afternoon. Drying and subsidence then work in and should see a
nice Memorial Day with lower dew points...though a few models
bringing some additional moisture back in later Monday.

Another upper low expected to drop into northern plains next week
with a similar setup of broad moisture plume and weak forcing
ahead of it. This low looks a bit more progressive across the
northern tier of states. Stronger short wave moves through
Thursday with cooler and drier air possible by friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Sct shra and a few ts expected to develop this aftn as a wk
shrtwv moves rapidly ne from the lwr/mid MS Valley across IN. A
little strong shrtwv expected to move fm w-e across the area
Sunday, but decreasing moisture in advance of the system supports
not adding shra/ts mention to tafs attm. Otrws, vfr conditions
should cont with moderately strong southerly flow grdly veering to
west on Sunday.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley
AVIATION...JT


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 271704
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
105 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 403 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016

High pressure will remain nearly stationary over the southeastern
U.S. causing warm moist conditions across our area through the
Memorial Day weekend. Temperatures will remain well above normal
with highs in the lower or middle 80s and lows in the 60s. A low
chance of mainly afternoon through early evening thunderstorms
will continue into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 403 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Deep southerly flow to continue over the region today with abundant
moisture but a lack of strong forcing for ascent. Water vapor and IR
imagery showing numerous weak MCVs embedded within widespread
convection and debris cloudiness across the Midwest. Spectral models
continue to struggle with convective details given more coarse
resolution and convective models remain overdone at times. Weak flow
and lack of strong short wave makes for difficult forecast with
respect to when and where thunderstorms will develop.

Regional radar mosaic showing area of showers moving northeast from
southern IL and IN at 08z. HRRR has a decent handle on this area and
brings it into far southwest around 12z with decaying/weakening
trends as it lifts north. Have middle range chance pops for this
area. Instability again shown by models to be in the 1500-2500 j/kg
range this afternoon. concern that debris cloudiness may be more
extensive today and may not see as much afternoon sun as on
Thursday. Continued with a low to mid chance pop this afternoon with
convective models again showing some development. Highs today should
still reach lower 80s with muggy conditions as sfc dewpoints remain
in the mid 60s. Lingering low chance pops tonight in the west with
deep moisture feed and any weak MCV could easily set off a few
storms. Lows will remain in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 403 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Thunderstorm chances continue Saturday and Sunday as deep southwest
flow continues to pump moisture into the region. A few weak short
waves Saturday but stronger wave appears in the models for Sunday as
upper low lifts through the western Great Lakes and stronger short
wave lifts northeast over our area. 0-6km shear increases and
potential CAPES of 2k j/kg or greater if we partially clear. Will
see how this plays out as models have yet to impress in this regime.

Brief period of drying and subsidence appears likely for Memorial
Day behind departing short wave and building heights. This in part
to blocky pattern with tropical/subtropical low meandering over the
Carolinas as downstream ridging develops. Thunderstorm chances
return mid week as moisture plume returns in southwest flow as
another low moves across the northern CONUS.

Highs generally in the lower 80s during the period with lows in the
60s. Temps will trend a few degrees cooler by mid to end of week
with dew points also back into the 50s making it a bit more
comfortable.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Band of light showers resulting from weak disturbance lifting
northward through the area continues to weaken and is now north of
both TAF sites. Another wave moving up through central Illinois this
afternoon may have showers redeveloping in the KSBN vicinity so
will include a 3 hour window of VCSH to account for this. Otherwise
VFR through the period on south/southwest winds generally 10kts
or less.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lashley
SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley
AVIATION...Logsdon


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