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000
FXUS63 KIWX 022316
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
716 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 716 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY MID EVENING AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 50S
TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF ON WEDNESDAY A BEAUTIFUL EARLY SEPTEMBER DAY WILL BE IN
STORE WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOWER HUMIDITIES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FORECAST STILL ON TRACK NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SEVERAL BOUNDARIES
(OUTFLOW AND LAKE BREEZE) WERE DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS N INDIANA AND
NW OHIO. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED HERE AND THERE AND EVEN A
STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE A FEW HOURS AGO. TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE
DOWNWARD WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND EVENTUAL TRANSLATION OF
BOUNDARIES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

INFILTRATION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION HAS BEEN SLOW THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AMID WASHED OUT
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO MIX OUT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT LATEST SAT TRENDS SHOWING
MORE SCT LOW LVL CLOUD LAYER...ESPECIALLY NW. ISOLD SHOWERS
CURRENTLY NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS NW/NC IN...GIVEN AMPLE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING YIELDING VERY
MODEST SB CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. HRRR AND EVEN
NAM12 HINTING AT ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNSET. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT AN ISOLD SHOWER
MENTION THROUGH 00Z IN THE FCST. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDER AT THIS
TIME GIVEN LACK OF FORCING AND WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES.

AS RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLEARING SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WITH SLACKENING GRADIENT AND LOW LVL
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY SE W/ THE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...FOG
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKELY LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. KEPT PREVIOUS FCST IN TACT WITH AREAS OF FOG MENTION FROM
09-12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG AT THIS
TIME...GIVEN LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION AND EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD
NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
IF CLOUD COVER IS QUICK TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...W/ LACK OF ANY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...THEN DENSE FOG CHANCES WOULD INCREASE TOWARD
TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY SE. WILL MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY.

RIDGING BUILDS EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. KEPT HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW MAV...ALTHOUGH UPWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT
FCST WITH WAA INTO THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE APPEARED TO INITIALIZE THE UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE WELL AND ALSO SEEM HAVE A REASONABLE TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEK. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE ALSO SHOWN GOOD
CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH THIS SYSTEM THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS.
LOW LEVEL THETA E AND MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. HAVE ADDED A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS THETA E ADVECTION OVER FAR NORTHWEST AREAS...
ESPECIALLY BERRIEN AND LAPORTE COUNTY. KEPT THURSDAY DRY AS THE
PRIMARY LOW LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND AS A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION INCREASES AT THE BASE OF A WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER. THE GFS MAV/MEX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AT
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
APPEAR ON TRACK WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 20C.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK BEST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY BY LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH CAPES AS HIGH AS 2000 TO 3000
J/KG...CONCERN FOR AN UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DROP SOUTHEAST
OR SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS RICH THETA E SPREADS OVER THE
AREA. EXPANDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT IN THIS REGARD.
OTHERWISE...KEPT STORM CHANCES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FINAL SURGE OF DRIER AIR...BEING ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL WEAK
BOUNDARIES...WILL SHIFT THROUGH KFWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER BUT COVERAGE/CHANCE OF IMPACT SO
SMALL NOT WORTHY OF A TAF MENTION. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO FOG
POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT PREVIOUS TAFS INTACT AS BETTER
CHANCE FOR FOG LOOKS TO RESIDE AT KFWA WHERE RECENT RAINFALL WILL
LEAVE MORE RESIDUAL MSTR AS WELL AS SLOWER ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN
THIS AREA. LITTLE MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS TO BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&


IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 021946
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
346 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. EXPECT A
QUIET NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 50S. AREAS
OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING LOCALLY
DENSE AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

INFILTRATION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION HAS BEEN SLOW THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AMID WASHED OUT
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO MIX OUT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT LATEST SAT TRENDS SHOWING
MORE SCT LOW LVL CLOUD LAYER...ESPECIALLY NW. ISOLD SHOWERS
CURRENTLY NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS NW/NC IN...GIVEN AMPLE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING YIELDING VERY
MODEST SB CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. HRRR AND EVEN
NAM12 HINTING AT ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNSET. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT AN ISOLD SHOWER
MENTION THROUGH 00Z IN THE FCST. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDER AT THIS
TIME GIVEN LACK OF FORCING AND WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES.

AS RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLEARING SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WITH SLACKENING GRADIENT AND LOW LVL
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY SE W/ THE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...FOG
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKELY LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. KEPT PREVIOUS FCST IN TACT WITH AREAS OF FOG MENTION FROM
09-12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG AT THIS
TIME...GIVEN LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION AND EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD
NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
IF CLOUD COVER IS QUICK TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...W/ LACK OF ANY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...THEN DENSE FOG CHANCES WOULD INCREASE TOWARD
TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY SE. WILL MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY.

RIDGING BUILDS EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. KEPT HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW MAV...ALTHOUGH UPWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT
FCST WITH WAA INTO THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE APPEARED TO INITIALIZE THE UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE WELL AND ALSO SEEM HAVE A REASONABLE TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEK. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE ALSO SHOWN GOOD
CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH THIS SYSTEM THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS.
LOW LEVEL THETA E AND MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. HAVE ADDED A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS THETA E ADVECTION OVER FAR NORTHWEST AREAS...
ESPECIALLY BERRIEN AND LAPORTE COUNTY. KEPT THURSDAY DRY AS THE
PRIMARY LOW LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND AS A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION INCREASES AT THE BASE OF A WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER. THE GFS MAV/MEX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AT
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
APPEAR ON TRACK WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 20C.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK BEST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY BY LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH CAPES AS HIGH AS 2000 TO 3000
J/KG...CONCERN FOR AN UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DROP SOUTHEAST
OR SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS RICH THETA E SPREADS OVER THE
AREA. EXPANDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT IN THIS REGARD.
OTHERWISE...KEPT STORM CHANCES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD YIELD IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE TAF PD. LINGERING LOW LEVEL STRATUS SLOW TO MIX OUT
THROUGH MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY INVOF KFWA. BUT RECENT SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST RAPID MIXING AND LIFTING/CLEARING OF ANY MVFR CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT WITH CALMING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES. LEFT PREVIOUS FCST IN TACT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR/IFR FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 021946
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
346 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. EXPECT A
QUIET NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 50S. AREAS
OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING LOCALLY
DENSE AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

INFILTRATION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION HAS BEEN SLOW THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AMID WASHED OUT
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO MIX OUT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT LATEST SAT TRENDS SHOWING
MORE SCT LOW LVL CLOUD LAYER...ESPECIALLY NW. ISOLD SHOWERS
CURRENTLY NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS NW/NC IN...GIVEN AMPLE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING YIELDING VERY
MODEST SB CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. HRRR AND EVEN
NAM12 HINTING AT ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNSET. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT AN ISOLD SHOWER
MENTION THROUGH 00Z IN THE FCST. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDER AT THIS
TIME GIVEN LACK OF FORCING AND WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES.

AS RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLEARING SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WITH SLACKENING GRADIENT AND LOW LVL
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY SE W/ THE PRECIP OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...FOG
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKELY LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. KEPT PREVIOUS FCST IN TACT WITH AREAS OF FOG MENTION FROM
09-12Z. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG AT THIS
TIME...GIVEN LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION AND EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD
NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
IF CLOUD COVER IS QUICK TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...W/ LACK OF ANY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...THEN DENSE FOG CHANCES WOULD INCREASE TOWARD
TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY SE. WILL MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND WILL UPDATE AS NECESSARY.

RIDGING BUILDS EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. KEPT HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW MAV...ALTHOUGH UPWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT
FCST WITH WAA INTO THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE APPEARED TO INITIALIZE THE UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE WELL AND ALSO SEEM HAVE A REASONABLE TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEK. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE ALSO SHOWN GOOD
CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH THIS SYSTEM THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS.
LOW LEVEL THETA E AND MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. HAVE ADDED A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS THETA E ADVECTION OVER FAR NORTHWEST AREAS...
ESPECIALLY BERRIEN AND LAPORTE COUNTY. KEPT THURSDAY DRY AS THE
PRIMARY LOW LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND AS A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION INCREASES AT THE BASE OF A WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER. THE GFS MAV/MEX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AT
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
APPEAR ON TRACK WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 20C.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK BEST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY BY LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH CAPES AS HIGH AS 2000 TO 3000
J/KG...CONCERN FOR AN UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DROP SOUTHEAST
OR SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS RICH THETA E SPREADS OVER THE
AREA. EXPANDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT IN THIS REGARD.
OTHERWISE...KEPT STORM CHANCES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD YIELD IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE TAF PD. LINGERING LOW LEVEL STRATUS SLOW TO MIX OUT
THROUGH MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY INVOF KFWA. BUT RECENT SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST RAPID MIXING AND LIFTING/CLEARING OF ANY MVFR CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT WITH CALMING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES. LEFT PREVIOUS FCST IN TACT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR/IFR FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 021735
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
135 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. EXPECT A
QUIET NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 50S. AREAS
OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING LOCALLY
DENSE AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WOEFULLY DISHEARTENED BY POORLY MISHANDLED FINER RES MODEL OUTPUT
WITH RESPECT TO SPASTIC PRIMARY/DERIVED FIELDS THIS AM. NAM12 TOO
MOIST IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND LATER AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND
HRRR3KM EGREGIOUSLY OVERLY ASSERTS MINOR MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH HEAVY AMOUNTS IN A STRIPE ACROSS NWRN/NRN CWA THIS AM.
FOLLOWING LESS NOISY/CONCEPTUALLY FAVORED SREF/GFS THROUGH NEAR
TERM. ZONE OF MARKED 7-5H QG FGEN OVER WCNTL MI INTO NERN IL TO
RACE ENEWD INTO MI THUMB/SWRN ONT BY ABOUT 15 UTC. ANTICIPATE
LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT SHRA GIVEN LEADING EDGE 850-700MB MOISTURE
FLUX DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING SUB ALTOCU DECK LAYER.
MEANWHILE TO SOUTH...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH WELL
VEERED 925-8H JETLET NEAR SWRN IN/NCNTL KY ON ORDER OF 45-50KTS.
WELL VEERED JET FOCUS THROUGH REMAINDER OF AM HOURS TO KEEP HEAVY
RAFL WELL SOUTH OF CWA...WITH NORTHERN EDGE /PRIMARILY STRATIFORM
QUALITY RAINSHIELD PASSING THROUGH SRN/SERN CWA WITH STRONG POP
GRADIENT. GIVEN ML CAPE 250 J/KG ISOPLETH TO REMAIN ALONG/SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 WAS TEMPTED TO REMOVE TSRA ALTOGETHER...HOWEVER
MAINTAINED A TOKEN ISOLD/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FAR S/SERN CWA
THROUGH 12 UTC PRIMARILY FOR PSBL ANVIL/PERIPHERAL MCS STRIKE.
OTHERWISE...GRADUAL INFILTRATION OF DRIER AIR AND PROGRESSION OF
LONGWAVE TROF LEAVES LITTLE IMPETUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND SIDED DRY/BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. AMPLE LONGWAVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS BY SUNSET AS CENTRAL PLAINS
SURFACE RIDGING EDGES EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES/MID MS
VLY. GIVEN CLEAR/MCLEAR SKIES AND 925 MB THERMAL TROF POSITIONING
FROM LAKE HURON SW INTO EASTERN THIRD CWA BY DAYBREAK...HAVE
FAVORED ONGOING COOL TEMPS/CLOSER TO MAV GUID. WITH STRONG
SURFACE BASED INVERSION ANTICIPATE POSSIBLE FG
ISSUE...UNCERTAINTY OF COVERAGE...THOUGH WITH WETTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AM...HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE AS AREAS OF FOG
FOR NOW...ALLOWING LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE PROBABILITY OF DENSE
NATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL WORK SLOWLY ESE TOWARD THE
EASTERN OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE AREA WITH DRY/FAIR
WX AND HIGHS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S GIVEN AMPLE INSOLATION AND 850
MB TEMPS NEAR 15C. NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
(SOON TO DROP INTO THE PAC NW) PROPAGATES ENE ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER LATE THIS WEEK. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO
ATTENDANT CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
BRINGS CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THAT SAID CONTINUED WITH INHERITED
DRY/10 POP FCST IN LIGHT OF CONSISTENT ECMWF DRY SIGNAL WITH MORE
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETTING UP NORTHWEST OF THE FA ON
NOSE OF LLJ. THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY
DRY/HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CAPPED WARM SECTOR BECOMING FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED. DEPENDING ON CLOUD/CONVECTIVE TRENDS TEMPS MAY MAKE
A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY IN THE WEST AS SW FLOW DEEPENS AND 850 MB
TEMPS INCREASE TO 20-21C.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SAGGING A TRAILING/WEAKENING
COLD FRONT INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVE.
CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT LIKELY CONSENSUS BLEND POPS FOR STORMS
GIVEN WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING/LAPSE RATES IN PART TO NORTHERLY
TRACK OF MAIN PV ANOMALY THRU ONTARIO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT/POOLING...WITH NOT MUCH OF A SEVERE RISK GIVEN POST-
FRONTAL LAG OF STRONGER MID LVL FLOW. OTHERWISE...THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY (EXCEPT FOR
VERY LOW SHOWER CHC SOUTHEAST SATURDAY IF SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMES TO FRUITION) AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD YIELD IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE TAF PD. LINGERING LOW LEVEL STRATUS SLOW TO MIX OUT
THROUGH MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY INVOF KFWA. BUT RECENT SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST RAPID MIXING AND LIFTING/CLEARING OF ANY MVFR CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT WITH CALMING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES. LEFT PREVIOUS FCST IN TACT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR/IFR FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 021735
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
135 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. EXPECT A
QUIET NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 50S. AREAS
OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING LOCALLY
DENSE AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WOEFULLY DISHEARTENED BY POORLY MISHANDLED FINER RES MODEL OUTPUT
WITH RESPECT TO SPASTIC PRIMARY/DERIVED FIELDS THIS AM. NAM12 TOO
MOIST IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND LATER AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND
HRRR3KM EGREGIOUSLY OVERLY ASSERTS MINOR MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH HEAVY AMOUNTS IN A STRIPE ACROSS NWRN/NRN CWA THIS AM.
FOLLOWING LESS NOISY/CONCEPTUALLY FAVORED SREF/GFS THROUGH NEAR
TERM. ZONE OF MARKED 7-5H QG FGEN OVER WCNTL MI INTO NERN IL TO
RACE ENEWD INTO MI THUMB/SWRN ONT BY ABOUT 15 UTC. ANTICIPATE
LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT SHRA GIVEN LEADING EDGE 850-700MB MOISTURE
FLUX DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING SUB ALTOCU DECK LAYER.
MEANWHILE TO SOUTH...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH WELL
VEERED 925-8H JETLET NEAR SWRN IN/NCNTL KY ON ORDER OF 45-50KTS.
WELL VEERED JET FOCUS THROUGH REMAINDER OF AM HOURS TO KEEP HEAVY
RAFL WELL SOUTH OF CWA...WITH NORTHERN EDGE /PRIMARILY STRATIFORM
QUALITY RAINSHIELD PASSING THROUGH SRN/SERN CWA WITH STRONG POP
GRADIENT. GIVEN ML CAPE 250 J/KG ISOPLETH TO REMAIN ALONG/SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 WAS TEMPTED TO REMOVE TSRA ALTOGETHER...HOWEVER
MAINTAINED A TOKEN ISOLD/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FAR S/SERN CWA
THROUGH 12 UTC PRIMARILY FOR PSBL ANVIL/PERIPHERAL MCS STRIKE.
OTHERWISE...GRADUAL INFILTRATION OF DRIER AIR AND PROGRESSION OF
LONGWAVE TROF LEAVES LITTLE IMPETUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND SIDED DRY/BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. AMPLE LONGWAVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS BY SUNSET AS CENTRAL PLAINS
SURFACE RIDGING EDGES EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES/MID MS
VLY. GIVEN CLEAR/MCLEAR SKIES AND 925 MB THERMAL TROF POSITIONING
FROM LAKE HURON SW INTO EASTERN THIRD CWA BY DAYBREAK...HAVE
FAVORED ONGOING COOL TEMPS/CLOSER TO MAV GUID. WITH STRONG
SURFACE BASED INVERSION ANTICIPATE POSSIBLE FG
ISSUE...UNCERTAINTY OF COVERAGE...THOUGH WITH WETTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AM...HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE AS AREAS OF FOG
FOR NOW...ALLOWING LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE PROBABILITY OF DENSE
NATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL WORK SLOWLY ESE TOWARD THE
EASTERN OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE AREA WITH DRY/FAIR
WX AND HIGHS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S GIVEN AMPLE INSOLATION AND 850
MB TEMPS NEAR 15C. NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
(SOON TO DROP INTO THE PAC NW) PROPAGATES ENE ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER LATE THIS WEEK. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO
ATTENDANT CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
BRINGS CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THAT SAID CONTINUED WITH INHERITED
DRY/10 POP FCST IN LIGHT OF CONSISTENT ECMWF DRY SIGNAL WITH MORE
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETTING UP NORTHWEST OF THE FA ON
NOSE OF LLJ. THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY
DRY/HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CAPPED WARM SECTOR BECOMING FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED. DEPENDING ON CLOUD/CONVECTIVE TRENDS TEMPS MAY MAKE
A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY IN THE WEST AS SW FLOW DEEPENS AND 850 MB
TEMPS INCREASE TO 20-21C.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SAGGING A TRAILING/WEAKENING
COLD FRONT INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVE.
CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT LIKELY CONSENSUS BLEND POPS FOR STORMS
GIVEN WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING/LAPSE RATES IN PART TO NORTHERLY
TRACK OF MAIN PV ANOMALY THRU ONTARIO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT/POOLING...WITH NOT MUCH OF A SEVERE RISK GIVEN POST-
FRONTAL LAG OF STRONGER MID LVL FLOW. OTHERWISE...THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY (EXCEPT FOR
VERY LOW SHOWER CHC SOUTHEAST SATURDAY IF SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMES TO FRUITION) AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD YIELD IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE TAF PD. LINGERING LOW LEVEL STRATUS SLOW TO MIX OUT
THROUGH MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY INVOF KFWA. BUT RECENT SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST RAPID MIXING AND LIFTING/CLEARING OF ANY MVFR CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT WITH CALMING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES. LEFT PREVIOUS FCST IN TACT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR/IFR FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 021459
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1059 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. EXPECT A
QUIET NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 50S. AREAS
OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING LOCALLY
DENSE AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WOEFULLY DISHEARTENED BY POORLY MISHANDLED FINER RES MODEL OUTPUT
WITH RESPECT TO SPASTIC PRIMARY/DERIVED FIELDS THIS AM. NAM12 TOO
MOIST IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND LATER AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND
HRRR3KM EGREGIOUSLY OVERLY ASSERTS MINOR MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH HEAVY AMOUNTS IN A STRIPE ACROSS NWRN/NRN CWA THIS AM.
FOLLOWING LESS NOISY/CONCEPTUALLY FAVORED SREF/GFS THROUGH NEAR
TERM. ZONE OF MARKED 7-5H QG FGEN OVER WCNTL MI INTO NERN IL TO
RACE ENEWD INTO MI THUMB/SWRN ONT BY ABOUT 15 UTC. ANTICIPATE
LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT SHRA GIVEN LEADING EDGE 850-700MB MOISTURE
FLUX DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING SUB ALTOCU DECK LAYER.
MEANWHILE TO SOUTH...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH WELL
VEERED 925-8H JETLET NEAR SWRN IN/NCNTL KY ON ORDER OF 45-50KTS.
WELL VEERED JET FOCUS THROUGH REMAINDER OF AM HOURS TO KEEP HEAVY
RAFL WELL SOUTH OF CWA...WITH NORTHERN EDGE /PRIMARILY STRATIFORM
QUALITY RAINSHIELD PASSING THROUGH SRN/SERN CWA WITH STRONG POP
GRADIENT. GIVEN ML CAPE 250 J/KG ISOPLETH TO REMAIN ALONG/SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 WAS TEMPTED TO REMOVE TSRA ALTOGETHER...HOWEVER
MAINTAINED A TOKEN ISOLD/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FAR S/SERN CWA
THROUGH 12 UTC PRIMARILY FOR PSBL ANVIL/PERIPHERAL MCS STRIKE.
OTHERWISE...GRADUAL INFILTRATION OF DRIER AIR AND PROGRESSION OF
LONGWAVE TROF LEAVES LITTLE IMPETUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND SIDED DRY/BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. AMPLE LONGWAVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS BY SUNSET AS CENTRAL PLAINS
SURFACE RIDGING EDGES EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES/MID MS
VLY. GIVEN CLEAR/MCLEAR SKIES AND 925 MB THERMAL TROF POSITIONING
FROM LAKE HURON SW INTO EASTERN THIRD CWA BY DAYBREAK...HAVE
FAVORED ONGOING COOL TEMPS/CLOSER TO MAV GUID. WITH STRONG
SURFACE BASED INVERSION ANTICIPATE POSSIBLE FG
ISSUE...UNCERTAINTY OF COVERAGE...THOUGH WITH WETTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AM...HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE AS AREAS OF FOG
FOR NOW...ALLOWING LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE PROBABILITY OF DENSE
NATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL WORK SLOWLY ESE TOWARD THE
EASTERN OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE AREA WITH DRY/FAIR
WX AND HIGHS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S GIVEN AMPLE INSOLATION AND 850
MB TEMPS NEAR 15C. NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
(SOON TO DROP INTO THE PAC NW) PROPAGATES ENE ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER LATE THIS WEEK. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO
ATTENDANT CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
BRINGS CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THAT SAID CONTINUED WITH INHERITED
DRY/10 POP FCST IN LIGHT OF CONSISTENT ECMWF DRY SIGNAL WITH MORE
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETTING UP NORTHWEST OF THE FA ON
NOSE OF LLJ. THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY
DRY/HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CAPPED WARM SECTOR BECOMING FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED. DEPENDING ON CLOUD/CONVECTIVE TRENDS TEMPS MAY MAKE
A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY IN THE WEST AS SW FLOW DEEPENS AND 850 MB
TEMPS INCREASE TO 20-21C.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SAGGING A TRAILING/WEAKENING
COLD FRONT INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVE.
CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT LIKELY CONSENSUS BLEND POPS FOR STORMS
GIVEN WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING/LAPSE RATES IN PART TO NORTHERLY
TRACK OF MAIN PV ANOMALY THRU ONTARIO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT/POOLING...WITH NOT MUCH OF A SEVERE RISK GIVEN POST-
FRONTAL LAG OF STRONGER MID LVL FLOW. OTHERWISE...THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY (EXCEPT FOR
VERY LOW SHOWER CHC SOUTHEAST SATURDAY IF SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMES TO FRUITION) AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RAIN SHIELD TO CONTINUE EASTWARD ADVANCE THROUGH NWRN OHIO WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN WITH VFR MET CONDITIONS FOR KFWA. A
FEW SHRA NIVOF KSBN...IMMEDIATELY ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY/COLLOCATED
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. AGAIN DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IF ANY
AVIATION RELATED CONCERN APART FROM WET RY/TEMPO MVFR CIGS...BUT
MAINTAIN OPTIMISM ABOVE FUELING/ALTERNATE CRITERIA. FOCUS THEN
SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL BR/FG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
WETTED GROUND/HIGHER XOVER TEMP AT KFWA SUGGESTS GREATER LIKLIHOOD
FOR DETERIORATING CONDITONS THAN ACROSS NWRN IN/VCNTY KSBN.
ADDRESS POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBSY IN TEMPO PERIOD FOR OUTLOOK/PLANNING
PURPOSES AT KFWA.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 021459
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1059 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. EXPECT A
QUIET NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 50S. AREAS
OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING LOCALLY
DENSE AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WOEFULLY DISHEARTENED BY POORLY MISHANDLED FINER RES MODEL OUTPUT
WITH RESPECT TO SPASTIC PRIMARY/DERIVED FIELDS THIS AM. NAM12 TOO
MOIST IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND LATER AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND
HRRR3KM EGREGIOUSLY OVERLY ASSERTS MINOR MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH HEAVY AMOUNTS IN A STRIPE ACROSS NWRN/NRN CWA THIS AM.
FOLLOWING LESS NOISY/CONCEPTUALLY FAVORED SREF/GFS THROUGH NEAR
TERM. ZONE OF MARKED 7-5H QG FGEN OVER WCNTL MI INTO NERN IL TO
RACE ENEWD INTO MI THUMB/SWRN ONT BY ABOUT 15 UTC. ANTICIPATE
LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT SHRA GIVEN LEADING EDGE 850-700MB MOISTURE
FLUX DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING SUB ALTOCU DECK LAYER.
MEANWHILE TO SOUTH...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH WELL
VEERED 925-8H JETLET NEAR SWRN IN/NCNTL KY ON ORDER OF 45-50KTS.
WELL VEERED JET FOCUS THROUGH REMAINDER OF AM HOURS TO KEEP HEAVY
RAFL WELL SOUTH OF CWA...WITH NORTHERN EDGE /PRIMARILY STRATIFORM
QUALITY RAINSHIELD PASSING THROUGH SRN/SERN CWA WITH STRONG POP
GRADIENT. GIVEN ML CAPE 250 J/KG ISOPLETH TO REMAIN ALONG/SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 WAS TEMPTED TO REMOVE TSRA ALTOGETHER...HOWEVER
MAINTAINED A TOKEN ISOLD/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FAR S/SERN CWA
THROUGH 12 UTC PRIMARILY FOR PSBL ANVIL/PERIPHERAL MCS STRIKE.
OTHERWISE...GRADUAL INFILTRATION OF DRIER AIR AND PROGRESSION OF
LONGWAVE TROF LEAVES LITTLE IMPETUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND SIDED DRY/BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. AMPLE LONGWAVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS BY SUNSET AS CENTRAL PLAINS
SURFACE RIDGING EDGES EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES/MID MS
VLY. GIVEN CLEAR/MCLEAR SKIES AND 925 MB THERMAL TROF POSITIONING
FROM LAKE HURON SW INTO EASTERN THIRD CWA BY DAYBREAK...HAVE
FAVORED ONGOING COOL TEMPS/CLOSER TO MAV GUID. WITH STRONG
SURFACE BASED INVERSION ANTICIPATE POSSIBLE FG
ISSUE...UNCERTAINTY OF COVERAGE...THOUGH WITH WETTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AM...HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE AS AREAS OF FOG
FOR NOW...ALLOWING LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE PROBABILITY OF DENSE
NATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL WORK SLOWLY ESE TOWARD THE
EASTERN OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE AREA WITH DRY/FAIR
WX AND HIGHS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S GIVEN AMPLE INSOLATION AND 850
MB TEMPS NEAR 15C. NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
(SOON TO DROP INTO THE PAC NW) PROPAGATES ENE ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER LATE THIS WEEK. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO
ATTENDANT CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
BRINGS CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THAT SAID CONTINUED WITH INHERITED
DRY/10 POP FCST IN LIGHT OF CONSISTENT ECMWF DRY SIGNAL WITH MORE
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETTING UP NORTHWEST OF THE FA ON
NOSE OF LLJ. THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY
DRY/HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CAPPED WARM SECTOR BECOMING FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED. DEPENDING ON CLOUD/CONVECTIVE TRENDS TEMPS MAY MAKE
A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY IN THE WEST AS SW FLOW DEEPENS AND 850 MB
TEMPS INCREASE TO 20-21C.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SAGGING A TRAILING/WEAKENING
COLD FRONT INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVE.
CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT LIKELY CONSENSUS BLEND POPS FOR STORMS
GIVEN WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING/LAPSE RATES IN PART TO NORTHERLY
TRACK OF MAIN PV ANOMALY THRU ONTARIO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT/POOLING...WITH NOT MUCH OF A SEVERE RISK GIVEN POST-
FRONTAL LAG OF STRONGER MID LVL FLOW. OTHERWISE...THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY (EXCEPT FOR
VERY LOW SHOWER CHC SOUTHEAST SATURDAY IF SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMES TO FRUITION) AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RAIN SHIELD TO CONTINUE EASTWARD ADVANCE THROUGH NWRN OHIO WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN WITH VFR MET CONDITIONS FOR KFWA. A
FEW SHRA NIVOF KSBN...IMMEDIATELY ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY/COLLOCATED
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. AGAIN DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IF ANY
AVIATION RELATED CONCERN APART FROM WET RY/TEMPO MVFR CIGS...BUT
MAINTAIN OPTIMISM ABOVE FUELING/ALTERNATE CRITERIA. FOCUS THEN
SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL BR/FG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
WETTED GROUND/HIGHER XOVER TEMP AT KFWA SUGGESTS GREATER LIKLIHOOD
FOR DETERIORATING CONDITONS THAN ACROSS NWRN IN/VCNTY KSBN.
ADDRESS POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBSY IN TEMPO PERIOD FOR OUTLOOK/PLANNING
PURPOSES AT KFWA.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 021102
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
702 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. UNTIL THEN SOME RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...PRIMARIY SOUTH OF ROUTE 24 THIS MORNING. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...LOOK FOR CLEARING
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES...EXCEPT COOLER
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WOEFULLY DISHEARTENED BY POORLY MISHANDLED FINER RES MODEL OUTPUT
WITH RESPECT TO SPASTIC PRIMARY/DERIVED FIELDS THIS AM. NAM12 TOO
MOIST IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND LATER AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND
HRRR3KM EGREGIOUSLY OVERLY ASSERTS MINOR MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH HEAVY AMOUNTS IN A STRIPE ACROSS NWRN/NRN CWA THIS AM.
FOLLOWING LESS NOISY/CONCEPTUALLY FAVORED SREF/GFS THROUGH NEAR
TERM. ZONE OF MARKED 7-5H QG FGEN OVER WCNTL MI INTO NERN IL TO
RACE ENEWD INTO MI THUMB/SWRN ONT BY ABOUT 15 UTC. ANTICIPATE
LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT SHRA GIVEN LEADING EDGE 850-700MB MOISTURE
FLUX DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING SUB ALTOCU DECK LAYER.
MEANWHILE TO SOUTH...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH WELL
VEERED 925-8H JETLET NEAR SWRN IN/NCNTL KY ON ORDER OF 45-50KTS.
WELL VEERED JET FOCUS THROUGH REMAINDER OF AM HOURS TO KEEP HEAVY
RAFL WELL SOUTH OF CWA...WITH NORTHERN EDGE /PRIMARILY STRATIFORM
QUALITY RAINSHIELD PASSING THROUGH SRN/SERN CWA WITH STRONG POP
GRADIENT. GIVEN ML CAPE 250 J/KG ISOPLETH TO REMAIN ALONG/SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 WAS TEMPTED TO REMOVE TSRA ALTOGETHER...HOWEVER
MAINTAINED A TOKEN ISOLD/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FAR S/SERN CWA
THROUGH 12 UTC PRIMARILY FOR PSBL ANVIL/PERIPHERAL MCS STRIKE.
OTHERWISE...GRADUAL INFILTRATION OF DRIER AIR AND PROGRESSION OF
LONGWAVE TROF LEAVES LITTLE IMPETUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND SIDED DRY/BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. AMPLE LONGWAVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS BY SUNSET AS CENTRAL PLAINS
SURFACE RIDGING EDGES EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES/MID MS
VLY. GIVEN CLEAR/MCLEAR SKIES AND 925 MB THERMAL TROF POSITIONING
FROM LAKE HURON SW INTO EASTERN THIRD CWA BY DAYBREAK...HAVE
FAVORED ONGOING COOL TEMPS/CLOSER TO MAV GUID. WITH STRONG
SURFACE BASED INVERSION ANTICIPATE POSSIBLE FG
ISSUE...UNCERTAINTY OF COVERAGE...THOUGH WITH WETTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AM...HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE AS AREAS OF FOG
FOR NOW...ALLOWING LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE PROBABILITY OF DENSE
NATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL WORK SLOWLY ESE TOWARD THE
EASTERN OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE AREA WITH DRY/FAIR
WX AND HIGHS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S GIVEN AMPLE INSOLATION AND 850
MB TEMPS NEAR 15C. NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
(SOON TO DROP INTO THE PAC NW) PROPAGATES ENE ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER LATE THIS WEEK. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO
ATTENDANT CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
BRINGS CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THAT SAID CONTINUED WITH INHERITED
DRY/10 POP FCST IN LIGHT OF CONSISTENT ECMWF DRY SIGNAL WITH MORE
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETTING UP NORTHWEST OF THE FA ON
NOSE OF LLJ. THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY
DRY/HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CAPPED WARM SECTOR BECOMING FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED. DEPENDING ON CLOUD/CONVECTIVE TRENDS TEMPS MAY MAKE
A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY IN THE WEST AS SW FLOW DEEPENS AND 850 MB
TEMPS INCREASE TO 20-21C.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SAGGING A TRAILING/WEAKENING
COLD FRONT INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVE.
CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT LIKELY CONSENSUS BLEND POPS FOR STORMS
GIVEN WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING/LAPSE RATES IN PART TO NORTHERLY
TRACK OF MAIN PV ANOMALY THRU ONTARIO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT/POOLING...WITH NOT MUCH OF A SEVERE RISK GIVEN POST-
FRONTAL LAG OF STRONGER MID LVL FLOW. OTHERWISE...THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY (EXCEPT FOR
VERY LOW SHOWER CHC SOUTHEAST SATURDAY IF SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMES TO FRUITION) AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RAIN SHIELD TO CONTINUE EASTWARD ADVANCE THROUGH NWRN OHIO WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN WITH VFR MET CONDITIONS FOR KFWA. A
FEW SHRA NIVOF KSBN...IMMEDIATELY ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY/COLLOCATED
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. AGAIN DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IF ANY
AVIATION RELATED CONCERN APART FROM WET RY/TEMPO MVFR CIGS...BUT
MAINTAIN OPTIMISM ABOVE FUELING/ALTERNATE CRITERIA. FOCUS THEN
SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL BR/FG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
WETTED GROUND/HIGHER XOVER TEMP AT KFWA SUGGESTS GREATER LIKLIHOOD
FOR DETERIORATING CONDITONS THAN ACROSS NWRN IN/VCNTY KSBN.
ADDRESS POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBSY IN TEMPO PERIOD FOR OUTLOOK/PLANNING
PURPOSES AT KFWA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 021102
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
702 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. UNTIL THEN SOME RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...PRIMARIY SOUTH OF ROUTE 24 THIS MORNING. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...LOOK FOR CLEARING
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES...EXCEPT COOLER
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WOEFULLY DISHEARTENED BY POORLY MISHANDLED FINER RES MODEL OUTPUT
WITH RESPECT TO SPASTIC PRIMARY/DERIVED FIELDS THIS AM. NAM12 TOO
MOIST IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND LATER AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND
HRRR3KM EGREGIOUSLY OVERLY ASSERTS MINOR MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH HEAVY AMOUNTS IN A STRIPE ACROSS NWRN/NRN CWA THIS AM.
FOLLOWING LESS NOISY/CONCEPTUALLY FAVORED SREF/GFS THROUGH NEAR
TERM. ZONE OF MARKED 7-5H QG FGEN OVER WCNTL MI INTO NERN IL TO
RACE ENEWD INTO MI THUMB/SWRN ONT BY ABOUT 15 UTC. ANTICIPATE
LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT SHRA GIVEN LEADING EDGE 850-700MB MOISTURE
FLUX DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING SUB ALTOCU DECK LAYER.
MEANWHILE TO SOUTH...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH WELL
VEERED 925-8H JETLET NEAR SWRN IN/NCNTL KY ON ORDER OF 45-50KTS.
WELL VEERED JET FOCUS THROUGH REMAINDER OF AM HOURS TO KEEP HEAVY
RAFL WELL SOUTH OF CWA...WITH NORTHERN EDGE /PRIMARILY STRATIFORM
QUALITY RAINSHIELD PASSING THROUGH SRN/SERN CWA WITH STRONG POP
GRADIENT. GIVEN ML CAPE 250 J/KG ISOPLETH TO REMAIN ALONG/SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 WAS TEMPTED TO REMOVE TSRA ALTOGETHER...HOWEVER
MAINTAINED A TOKEN ISOLD/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FAR S/SERN CWA
THROUGH 12 UTC PRIMARILY FOR PSBL ANVIL/PERIPHERAL MCS STRIKE.
OTHERWISE...GRADUAL INFILTRATION OF DRIER AIR AND PROGRESSION OF
LONGWAVE TROF LEAVES LITTLE IMPETUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND SIDED DRY/BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. AMPLE LONGWAVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS BY SUNSET AS CENTRAL PLAINS
SURFACE RIDGING EDGES EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES/MID MS
VLY. GIVEN CLEAR/MCLEAR SKIES AND 925 MB THERMAL TROF POSITIONING
FROM LAKE HURON SW INTO EASTERN THIRD CWA BY DAYBREAK...HAVE
FAVORED ONGOING COOL TEMPS/CLOSER TO MAV GUID. WITH STRONG
SURFACE BASED INVERSION ANTICIPATE POSSIBLE FG
ISSUE...UNCERTAINTY OF COVERAGE...THOUGH WITH WETTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AM...HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE AS AREAS OF FOG
FOR NOW...ALLOWING LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE PROBABILITY OF DENSE
NATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL WORK SLOWLY ESE TOWARD THE
EASTERN OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE AREA WITH DRY/FAIR
WX AND HIGHS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S GIVEN AMPLE INSOLATION AND 850
MB TEMPS NEAR 15C. NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
(SOON TO DROP INTO THE PAC NW) PROPAGATES ENE ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER LATE THIS WEEK. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO
ATTENDANT CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
BRINGS CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THAT SAID CONTINUED WITH INHERITED
DRY/10 POP FCST IN LIGHT OF CONSISTENT ECMWF DRY SIGNAL WITH MORE
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETTING UP NORTHWEST OF THE FA ON
NOSE OF LLJ. THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY
DRY/HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CAPPED WARM SECTOR BECOMING FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED. DEPENDING ON CLOUD/CONVECTIVE TRENDS TEMPS MAY MAKE
A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY IN THE WEST AS SW FLOW DEEPENS AND 850 MB
TEMPS INCREASE TO 20-21C.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SAGGING A TRAILING/WEAKENING
COLD FRONT INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVE.
CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT LIKELY CONSENSUS BLEND POPS FOR STORMS
GIVEN WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING/LAPSE RATES IN PART TO NORTHERLY
TRACK OF MAIN PV ANOMALY THRU ONTARIO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT/POOLING...WITH NOT MUCH OF A SEVERE RISK GIVEN POST-
FRONTAL LAG OF STRONGER MID LVL FLOW. OTHERWISE...THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY (EXCEPT FOR
VERY LOW SHOWER CHC SOUTHEAST SATURDAY IF SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMES TO FRUITION) AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RAIN SHIELD TO CONTINUE EASTWARD ADVANCE THROUGH NWRN OHIO WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN WITH VFR MET CONDITIONS FOR KFWA. A
FEW SHRA NIVOF KSBN...IMMEDIATELY ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY/COLLOCATED
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. AGAIN DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IF ANY
AVIATION RELATED CONCERN APART FROM WET RY/TEMPO MVFR CIGS...BUT
MAINTAIN OPTIMISM ABOVE FUELING/ALTERNATE CRITERIA. FOCUS THEN
SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL BR/FG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
WETTED GROUND/HIGHER XOVER TEMP AT KFWA SUGGESTS GREATER LIKLIHOOD
FOR DETERIORATING CONDITONS THAN ACROSS NWRN IN/VCNTY KSBN.
ADDRESS POTENTIAL FOR IFR VSBSY IN TEMPO PERIOD FOR OUTLOOK/PLANNING
PURPOSES AT KFWA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 020810
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
410 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. UNTIL THEN SOME RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...PRIMARIY SOUTH OF ROUTE 24 THIS MORNING. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...LOOK FOR CLEARING
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES...EXCEPT COOLER
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WOEFULLY DISHEARTENED BY POORLY MISHANDLED FINER RES MODEL OUTPUT
WITH RESPECT TO SPASTIC PRIMARY/DERIVED FIELDS THIS AM. NAM12 TOO
MOIST IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND LATER AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND
HRRR3KM EGREGIOUSLY OVERLY ASSERTS MINOR MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH HEAVY AMOUNTS IN A STRIPE ACROSS NWRN/NRN CWA THIS AM.
FOLLOWING LESS NOISY/CONCEPTUALLY FAVORED SREF/GFS THROUGH NEAR
TERM. ZONE OF MARKED 7-5H QG FGEN OVER WCNTL MI INTO NERN IL TO
RACE ENEWD INTO MI THUMB/SWRN ONT BY ABOUT 15 UTC. ANTICIPATE
LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT SHRA GIVEN LEADING EDGE 850-700MB MOISTURE
FLUX DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING SUB ALTOCU DECK LAYER.
MEANWHILE TO SOUTH...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH WELL
VEERED 925-8H JETLET NEAR SWRN IN/NCNTL KY ON ORDER OF 45-50KTS.
WELL VEERED JET FOCUS THROUGH REMAINDER OF AM HOURS TO KEEP HEAVY
RAFL WELL SOUTH OF CWA...WITH NORTHERN EDGE /PRIMARILY STRATIFORM
QUALITY RAINSHIELD PASSING THROUGH SRN/SERN CWA WITH STRONG POP
GRADIENT. GIVEN ML CAPE 250 J/KG ISOPLETH TO REMAIN ALONG/SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 WAS TEMPTED TO REMOVE TSRA ALTOGETHER...HOWEVER
MAINTAINED A TOKEN ISOLD/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FAR S/SERN CWA
THROUGH 12 UTC PRIMARILY FOR PSBL ANVIL/PERIPHERAL MCS STRIKE.
OTHERWISE...GRADUAL INFILTRATION OF DRIER AIR AND PROGRESSION OF
LONGWAVE TROF LEAVES LITTLE IMPETUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND SIDED DRY/BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. AMPLE LONGWAVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS BY SUNSET AS CENTRAL PLAINS
SURFACE RIDGING EDGES EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES/MID MS
VLY. GIVEN CLEAR/MCLEAR SKIES AND 925 MB THERMAL TROF POSITIONING
FROM LAKE HURON SW INTO EASTERN THIRD CWA BY DAYBREAK...HAVE
FAVORED ONGOING COOL TEMPS/CLOSER TO MAV GUID. WITH STRONG
SURFACE BASED INVERSION ANTICIPATE POSSIBLE FG
ISSUE...UNCERTAINTY OF COVERAGE...THOUGH WITH WETTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AM...HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE AS AREAS OF FOG
FOR NOW...ALLOWING LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE PROBABILITY OF DENSE
NATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL WORK SLOWLY ESE TOWARD THE
EASTERN OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE AREA WITH DRY/FAIR
WX AND HIGHS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S GIVEN AMPLE INSOLATION AND 850
MB TEMPS NEAR 15C. NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
(SOON TO DROP INTO THE PAC NW) PROPAGATES ENE ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER LATE THIS WEEK. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO
ATTENDANT CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
BRINGS CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THAT SAID CONTINUED WITH INHERITED
DRY/10 POP FCST IN LIGHT OF CONSISTENT ECMWF DRY SIGNAL WITH MORE
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETTING UP NORTHWEST OF THE FA ON
NOSE OF LLJ. THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY
DRY/HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CAPPED WARM SECTOR BECOMING FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED. DEPENDING ON CLOUD/CONVECTIVE TRENDS TEMPS MAY MAKE
A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY IN THE WEST AS SW FLOW DEEPENS AND 850 MB
TEMPS INCREASE TO 20-21C.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SAGGING A TRAILING/WEAKENING
COLD FRONT INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVE.
CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT LIKELY CONSENSUS BLEND POPS FOR STORMS
GIVEN WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING/LAPSE RATES IN PART TO NORTHERLY
TRACK OF MAIN PV ANOMALY THRU ONTARIO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT/POOLING...WITH NOT MUCH OF A SEVERE RISK GIVEN POST-
FRONTAL LAG OF STRONGER MID LVL FLOW. OTHERWISE...THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY (EXCEPT FOR
VERY LOW SHOWER CHC SOUTHEAST SATURDAY IF SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMES TO FRUITION) AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

PRIMARILY VFR MET CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AREA OF ELEVATED -RA ACRS NRN IL MAY PROVIDE KSBN SOME
SPRINKLES TOWARD DAYBREAK/COVERED WITH VCSH. ONLY NORTHERN FRINGE
OF LARGELY STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD INTO KFWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH BULK OF CONVECTION RIDING EWD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. MORE STEADY PRECIP COULD BRING PD OF HIGH END MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND/FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE INCREASING
DRY AIR ADVECTION LEADING TO ONLY SCT CU FIELD BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS TO ADDRESS BR/FG
POTENTIAL NEAR SUNRISE WED.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 020810
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
410 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. UNTIL THEN SOME RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...PRIMARIY SOUTH OF ROUTE 24 THIS MORNING. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...LOOK FOR CLEARING
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES...EXCEPT COOLER
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WOEFULLY DISHEARTENED BY POORLY MISHANDLED FINER RES MODEL OUTPUT
WITH RESPECT TO SPASTIC PRIMARY/DERIVED FIELDS THIS AM. NAM12 TOO
MOIST IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND LATER AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND
HRRR3KM EGREGIOUSLY OVERLY ASSERTS MINOR MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH HEAVY AMOUNTS IN A STRIPE ACROSS NWRN/NRN CWA THIS AM.
FOLLOWING LESS NOISY/CONCEPTUALLY FAVORED SREF/GFS THROUGH NEAR
TERM. ZONE OF MARKED 7-5H QG FGEN OVER WCNTL MI INTO NERN IL TO
RACE ENEWD INTO MI THUMB/SWRN ONT BY ABOUT 15 UTC. ANTICIPATE
LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT SHRA GIVEN LEADING EDGE 850-700MB MOISTURE
FLUX DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING SUB ALTOCU DECK LAYER.
MEANWHILE TO SOUTH...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH WELL
VEERED 925-8H JETLET NEAR SWRN IN/NCNTL KY ON ORDER OF 45-50KTS.
WELL VEERED JET FOCUS THROUGH REMAINDER OF AM HOURS TO KEEP HEAVY
RAFL WELL SOUTH OF CWA...WITH NORTHERN EDGE /PRIMARILY STRATIFORM
QUALITY RAINSHIELD PASSING THROUGH SRN/SERN CWA WITH STRONG POP
GRADIENT. GIVEN ML CAPE 250 J/KG ISOPLETH TO REMAIN ALONG/SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 WAS TEMPTED TO REMOVE TSRA ALTOGETHER...HOWEVER
MAINTAINED A TOKEN ISOLD/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FAR S/SERN CWA
THROUGH 12 UTC PRIMARILY FOR PSBL ANVIL/PERIPHERAL MCS STRIKE.
OTHERWISE...GRADUAL INFILTRATION OF DRIER AIR AND PROGRESSION OF
LONGWAVE TROF LEAVES LITTLE IMPETUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND SIDED DRY/BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. AMPLE LONGWAVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS BY SUNSET AS CENTRAL PLAINS
SURFACE RIDGING EDGES EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES/MID MS
VLY. GIVEN CLEAR/MCLEAR SKIES AND 925 MB THERMAL TROF POSITIONING
FROM LAKE HURON SW INTO EASTERN THIRD CWA BY DAYBREAK...HAVE
FAVORED ONGOING COOL TEMPS/CLOSER TO MAV GUID. WITH STRONG
SURFACE BASED INVERSION ANTICIPATE POSSIBLE FG
ISSUE...UNCERTAINTY OF COVERAGE...THOUGH WITH WETTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AM...HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE AS AREAS OF FOG
FOR NOW...ALLOWING LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE PROBABILITY OF DENSE
NATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL WORK SLOWLY ESE TOWARD THE
EASTERN OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE AREA WITH DRY/FAIR
WX AND HIGHS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S GIVEN AMPLE INSOLATION AND 850
MB TEMPS NEAR 15C. NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
(SOON TO DROP INTO THE PAC NW) PROPAGATES ENE ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER LATE THIS WEEK. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO
ATTENDANT CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
BRINGS CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THAT SAID CONTINUED WITH INHERITED
DRY/10 POP FCST IN LIGHT OF CONSISTENT ECMWF DRY SIGNAL WITH MORE
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETTING UP NORTHWEST OF THE FA ON
NOSE OF LLJ. THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE MAINLY
DRY/HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WITH CAPPED WARM SECTOR BECOMING FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED. DEPENDING ON CLOUD/CONVECTIVE TRENDS TEMPS MAY MAKE
A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY IN THE WEST AS SW FLOW DEEPENS AND 850 MB
TEMPS INCREASE TO 20-21C.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SAGGING A TRAILING/WEAKENING
COLD FRONT INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVE.
CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT LIKELY CONSENSUS BLEND POPS FOR STORMS
GIVEN WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING/LAPSE RATES IN PART TO NORTHERLY
TRACK OF MAIN PV ANOMALY THRU ONTARIO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT/POOLING...WITH NOT MUCH OF A SEVERE RISK GIVEN POST-
FRONTAL LAG OF STRONGER MID LVL FLOW. OTHERWISE...THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY (EXCEPT FOR
VERY LOW SHOWER CHC SOUTHEAST SATURDAY IF SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE
COMES TO FRUITION) AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

PRIMARILY VFR MET CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AREA OF ELEVATED -RA ACRS NRN IL MAY PROVIDE KSBN SOME
SPRINKLES TOWARD DAYBREAK/COVERED WITH VCSH. ONLY NORTHERN FRINGE
OF LARGELY STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD INTO KFWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH BULK OF CONVECTION RIDING EWD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. MORE STEADY PRECIP COULD BRING PD OF HIGH END MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND/FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE INCREASING
DRY AIR ADVECTION LEADING TO ONLY SCT CU FIELD BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS TO ADDRESS BR/FG
POTENTIAL NEAR SUNRISE WED.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 020536
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
136 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...KEEPING
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIAN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER...LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF CWA AS OF
1845Z AS REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF LARGER SCALE FORCING. SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FROM
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT A
RELATIVELY STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THROUGH 00Z...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT...AS LATE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION YIELDING
1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE EAST OF U.S. 31 AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
30-40 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION.
COVERAGE WORDING REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS LARGE SCALE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS TROF SLIDES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND SFC
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WIDE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE WRT LOCATION/AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL. AS SFC BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTHEAST INTO THE FCST
AREA...S/W ENERGY EJECTING THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE TROF AND 120
KT UPPER JET EJECTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE STRONG FORCING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHER RES GUIDANCE
SUCH AS THE ARW-EAST...NMM-EAST AND 4KM SPC WRF...SUGGEST
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION REINFORCING THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY FROM AN
EVANSVILLE TO COLUMBUS OH LINE. LOWER RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF PUTS THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC SFC FORCING...WITH THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAINFALL FROM
KIND TO KCLE. THIS SOLUTION WOULD PUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...FROM A MARION TO PAULDING LINE AND SOUTHWARD...AT RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR HEAVIER
RAINFALL EVENT GIVEN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK
OVERHEAD...PWAT VALUES IN TH 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE...WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS AROUND 12KFT...LITTLE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND CLOUD LAYER
FLOW PARALLEL TO THE SFC BOUNDARY...UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE RAINFALL WILL PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS OR
HEADLINES OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ROUGHLY ALONG AND SE OF THE U.S. 24
CORRIDOR. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS TONIGHT AND ADJUST FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY.

AS FRONTAL WAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
SFC BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL
WANE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. POP TRENDS FOR THE TUESDAY
PERIOD STILL IN LINE FROM PREVIOUS FCST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH
THIS ISSUANCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

PERTURBED NRN STREAM FLW ACRS SRN CANADA OVERTOP FLAT CONUS
RIDGING WILL CONT THIS PD. HIGH PRES BLDS EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS
TO START THE PD TUE NIGHT IN WAKE OF LEAD SW LIFTING UP THROUGH
NRN QB. HWVR SHALLOW CAA WING GIVES WAY QUICKLY AS FLW BACKS
DURING THE DAY WED IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPSTREAM VIGOROUS SYS
EJECTING EWD THROUGH SRN AB. THIS SYS WILL CONT TO STREAK EWD
THROUGH FRI AS ATTENDANT SFC BNDRY SAGS SWD INTO THE LWR LAKES/OH
VALLEY. HWVR AS HAS BEEN THE CASE W/MOST OF THESE SYS/S...HGT
FALLS ARE CONFINED WELL NORTH W/TRAILING SFC FNTL BNDRY WKNG
THROUGH TIME. AS SUCH AND IN REFLECTION OF MOST 12Z MED RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE...NOTHING MORE THAN A LOW CHC POP WARRANTED LATE
WEEK.

BEYOND THAT SERN US/WRN ATL UPR RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN FURTHER
W/SECONDARY SW AMPLIFYING THROUGH JAMES BAY NXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW A BIT COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS TO DRIVE SEWD ACRS THE
LAKES/NEW ENGLAND W/SEASONABLY PLEASANT AND DRY WX XPCD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

PRIMARILY VFR MET CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AREA OF ELEVATED -RA ACRS NRN IL MAY PROVIDE KSBN SOME
SPRINKLES TOWARD DAYBREAK/COVERED WITH VCSH. ONLY NORTHERN FRINGE
OF LARGELY STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD INTO KFWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH BULK OF CONVECTION RIDING EWD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. MORE STEADY PRECIP COULD BRING PD OF HIGH END MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND/FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE INCREASING
DRY AIR ADVECTION LEADING TO ONLY SCT CU FIELD BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS TO ADDRESS BR/FG
POTENTIAL NEAR SUNRISE WED.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 020536
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
136 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...KEEPING
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIAN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER...LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF CWA AS OF
1845Z AS REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF LARGER SCALE FORCING. SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FROM
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT A
RELATIVELY STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THROUGH 00Z...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT...AS LATE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION YIELDING
1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE EAST OF U.S. 31 AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
30-40 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION.
COVERAGE WORDING REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS LARGE SCALE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS TROF SLIDES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND SFC
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WIDE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE WRT LOCATION/AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL. AS SFC BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTHEAST INTO THE FCST
AREA...S/W ENERGY EJECTING THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE TROF AND 120
KT UPPER JET EJECTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE STRONG FORCING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHER RES GUIDANCE
SUCH AS THE ARW-EAST...NMM-EAST AND 4KM SPC WRF...SUGGEST
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION REINFORCING THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY FROM AN
EVANSVILLE TO COLUMBUS OH LINE. LOWER RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF PUTS THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC SFC FORCING...WITH THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAINFALL FROM
KIND TO KCLE. THIS SOLUTION WOULD PUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...FROM A MARION TO PAULDING LINE AND SOUTHWARD...AT RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR HEAVIER
RAINFALL EVENT GIVEN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK
OVERHEAD...PWAT VALUES IN TH 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE...WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS AROUND 12KFT...LITTLE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND CLOUD LAYER
FLOW PARALLEL TO THE SFC BOUNDARY...UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE RAINFALL WILL PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS OR
HEADLINES OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ROUGHLY ALONG AND SE OF THE U.S. 24
CORRIDOR. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS TONIGHT AND ADJUST FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY.

AS FRONTAL WAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
SFC BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL
WANE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. POP TRENDS FOR THE TUESDAY
PERIOD STILL IN LINE FROM PREVIOUS FCST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH
THIS ISSUANCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

PERTURBED NRN STREAM FLW ACRS SRN CANADA OVERTOP FLAT CONUS
RIDGING WILL CONT THIS PD. HIGH PRES BLDS EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS
TO START THE PD TUE NIGHT IN WAKE OF LEAD SW LIFTING UP THROUGH
NRN QB. HWVR SHALLOW CAA WING GIVES WAY QUICKLY AS FLW BACKS
DURING THE DAY WED IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPSTREAM VIGOROUS SYS
EJECTING EWD THROUGH SRN AB. THIS SYS WILL CONT TO STREAK EWD
THROUGH FRI AS ATTENDANT SFC BNDRY SAGS SWD INTO THE LWR LAKES/OH
VALLEY. HWVR AS HAS BEEN THE CASE W/MOST OF THESE SYS/S...HGT
FALLS ARE CONFINED WELL NORTH W/TRAILING SFC FNTL BNDRY WKNG
THROUGH TIME. AS SUCH AND IN REFLECTION OF MOST 12Z MED RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE...NOTHING MORE THAN A LOW CHC POP WARRANTED LATE
WEEK.

BEYOND THAT SERN US/WRN ATL UPR RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN FURTHER
W/SECONDARY SW AMPLIFYING THROUGH JAMES BAY NXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW A BIT COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS TO DRIVE SEWD ACRS THE
LAKES/NEW ENGLAND W/SEASONABLY PLEASANT AND DRY WX XPCD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

PRIMARILY VFR MET CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AREA OF ELEVATED -RA ACRS NRN IL MAY PROVIDE KSBN SOME
SPRINKLES TOWARD DAYBREAK/COVERED WITH VCSH. ONLY NORTHERN FRINGE
OF LARGELY STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD INTO KFWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH BULK OF CONVECTION RIDING EWD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. MORE STEADY PRECIP COULD BRING PD OF HIGH END MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND/FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE INCREASING
DRY AIR ADVECTION LEADING TO ONLY SCT CU FIELD BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS TO ADDRESS BR/FG
POTENTIAL NEAR SUNRISE WED.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 012330
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
730 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF CWA AS OF
1845Z AS REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF LARGER SCALE FORCING. SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FROM THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT A RELATIVELY
STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM THROUGH 00Z...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...AS
LATE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION YIELDING 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE EAST OF
U.S. 31 AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL ORGANIZATION. COVERAGE WORDING REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH 00Z.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS LARGE SCALE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
TROF SLIDES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE WRT LOCATION/AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. AS SFC BOUNDARY
SETTLES SOUTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA...S/W ENERGY EJECTING THROUGH
THE LARGE SCALE TROF AND 120 KT UPPER JET EJECTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE STRONG FORCING ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE ARW-EAST...NMM-EAST AND 4KM SPC
WRF...SUGGEST AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION REINFORCING THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY
FROM AN EVANSVILLE TO COLUMBUS OH LINE. LOWER RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF PUTS THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC SFC FORCING...WITH THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAINFALL FROM
KIND TO KCLE. THIS SOLUTION WOULD PUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...FROM A MARION TO PAULDING LINE AND SOUTHWARD...AT RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL
EVENT GIVEN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK OVERHEAD...PWAT
VALUES IN TH 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND
12KFT...LITTLE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND CLOUD LAYER FLOW PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY...UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RAINFALL
WILL PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS OR HEADLINES OVERNIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SE OF THE U.S. 24 CORRIDOR. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS TONIGHT AND ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

AS FRONTAL WAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND SFC
BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL WANE
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. POP TRENDS FOR THE TUESDAY PERIOD
STILL IN LINE FROM PREVIOUS FCST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

PERTURBED NRN STREAM FLW ACRS SRN CANADA OVERTOP FLAT CONUS RIDGING
WILL CONT THIS PD. HIGH PRES BLDS EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS TO START THE
PD TUE NIGHT IN WAKE OF LEAD SW LIFTING UP THROUGH NRN QB. HWVR
SHALLOW CAA WING GIVES WAY QUICKLY AS FLW BACKS DURING THE DAY WED
IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPSTREAM VIGOROUS SYS EJECTING EWD THROUGH
SRN AB. THIS SYS WILL CONT TO STREAK EWD THROUGH FRI AS ATTENDANT
SFC BNDRY SAGS SWD INTO THE LWR LAKES/OH VALLEY. HWVR AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE W/MOST OF THESE SYS/S...HGT FALLS ARE CONFINED WELL NORTH
W/TRAILING SFC FNTL BNDRY WKNG THROUGH TIME. AS SUCH AND IN
REFLECTION OF MOST 12Z MED RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...NOTHING MORE THAN
A LOW CHC POP WARRANTED LATE WEEK.

BEYOND THAT SERN US/WRN ATL UPR RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN FURTHER
W/SECONDARY SW AMPLIFYING THROUGH JAMES BAY NXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A BIT COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS TO DRIVE SEWD ACRS THE LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND W/SEASONABLY PLEASANT AND DRY WX XPCD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS CURRENTLY
EXITED THE AREA. MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL TO OUR WEST THOUGH
AND WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AROUND KSBN BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND HAVE
THEREFORE REMOVED THUNDER MENTION. SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
AT KFWA. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET. STILL SOME QUESTION
AS TO EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THIS PRECIP WILL REACH BUT CURRENT HI-
RES MODELS SUGGEST KFWA WILL GET CLIPPED AROUND 09-12Z TOMORROW
MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN CEILING HEIGHTS TO GO WITH FUEL
ALTERNATE CONDITIONS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KFWA BY
LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 012330
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
730 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF CWA AS OF
1845Z AS REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF LARGER SCALE FORCING. SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FROM THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT A RELATIVELY
STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM THROUGH 00Z...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...AS
LATE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION YIELDING 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE EAST OF
U.S. 31 AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL ORGANIZATION. COVERAGE WORDING REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH 00Z.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS LARGE SCALE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
TROF SLIDES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE WRT LOCATION/AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. AS SFC BOUNDARY
SETTLES SOUTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA...S/W ENERGY EJECTING THROUGH
THE LARGE SCALE TROF AND 120 KT UPPER JET EJECTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE STRONG FORCING ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE ARW-EAST...NMM-EAST AND 4KM SPC
WRF...SUGGEST AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION REINFORCING THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY
FROM AN EVANSVILLE TO COLUMBUS OH LINE. LOWER RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF PUTS THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC SFC FORCING...WITH THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAINFALL FROM
KIND TO KCLE. THIS SOLUTION WOULD PUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...FROM A MARION TO PAULDING LINE AND SOUTHWARD...AT RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL
EVENT GIVEN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK OVERHEAD...PWAT
VALUES IN TH 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND
12KFT...LITTLE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND CLOUD LAYER FLOW PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY...UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RAINFALL
WILL PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS OR HEADLINES OVERNIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SE OF THE U.S. 24 CORRIDOR. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS TONIGHT AND ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

AS FRONTAL WAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND SFC
BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL WANE
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. POP TRENDS FOR THE TUESDAY PERIOD
STILL IN LINE FROM PREVIOUS FCST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

PERTURBED NRN STREAM FLW ACRS SRN CANADA OVERTOP FLAT CONUS RIDGING
WILL CONT THIS PD. HIGH PRES BLDS EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS TO START THE
PD TUE NIGHT IN WAKE OF LEAD SW LIFTING UP THROUGH NRN QB. HWVR
SHALLOW CAA WING GIVES WAY QUICKLY AS FLW BACKS DURING THE DAY WED
IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPSTREAM VIGOROUS SYS EJECTING EWD THROUGH
SRN AB. THIS SYS WILL CONT TO STREAK EWD THROUGH FRI AS ATTENDANT
SFC BNDRY SAGS SWD INTO THE LWR LAKES/OH VALLEY. HWVR AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE W/MOST OF THESE SYS/S...HGT FALLS ARE CONFINED WELL NORTH
W/TRAILING SFC FNTL BNDRY WKNG THROUGH TIME. AS SUCH AND IN
REFLECTION OF MOST 12Z MED RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...NOTHING MORE THAN
A LOW CHC POP WARRANTED LATE WEEK.

BEYOND THAT SERN US/WRN ATL UPR RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN FURTHER
W/SECONDARY SW AMPLIFYING THROUGH JAMES BAY NXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A BIT COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS TO DRIVE SEWD ACRS THE LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND W/SEASONABLY PLEASANT AND DRY WX XPCD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS CURRENTLY
EXITED THE AREA. MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL TO OUR WEST THOUGH
AND WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AROUND KSBN BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND HAVE
THEREFORE REMOVED THUNDER MENTION. SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
AT KFWA. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET. STILL SOME QUESTION
AS TO EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THIS PRECIP WILL REACH BUT CURRENT HI-
RES MODELS SUGGEST KFWA WILL GET CLIPPED AROUND 09-12Z TOMORROW
MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN CEILING HEIGHTS TO GO WITH FUEL
ALTERNATE CONDITIONS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KFWA BY
LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 011921
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF CWA AS OF
1845Z AS REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF LARGER SCALE FORCING. SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FROM THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT A RELATIVELY
STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM THROUGH 00Z...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...AS
LATE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION YIELDING 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE EAST OF
U.S. 31 AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL ORGANIZATION. COVERAGE WORDING REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH 00Z.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS LARGE SCALE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
TROF SLIDES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE WRT LOCATION/AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. AS SFC BOUNDARY
SETTLES SOUTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA...S/W ENERGY EJECTING THROUGH
THE LARGE SCALE TROF AND 120 KT UPPER JET EJECTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE STRONG FORCING ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE ARW-EAST...NMM-EAST AND 4KM SPC
WRF...SUGGEST AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION REINFORCING THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY
FROM AN EVANSVILLE TO COLUMBUS OH LINE. LOWER RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF PUTS THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC SFC FORCING...WITH THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAINFALL FROM
KIND TO KCLE. THIS SOLUTION WOULD PUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...FROM A MARION TO PAULDING LINE AND SOUTHWARD...AT RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL
EVENT GIVEN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK OVERHEAD...PWAT
VALUES IN TH 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND
12KFT...LITTLE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND CLOUD LAYER FLOW PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY...UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RAINFALL
WILL PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS OR HEADLINES OVERNIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SE OF THE U.S. 24 CORRIDOR. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS TONIGHT AND ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

AS FRONTAL WAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND SFC
BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL WANE
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. POP TRENDS FOR THE TUESDAY PERIOD
STILL IN LINE FROM PREVIOUS FCST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

PERTURBED NRN STREAM FLW ACRS SRN CANADA OVERTOP FLAT CONUS RIDGING
WILL CONT THIS PD. HIGH PRES BLDS EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS TO START THE
PD TUE NIGHT IN WAKE OF LEAD SW LIFTING UP THROUGH NRN QB. HWVR
SHALLOW CAA WING GIVES WAY QUICKLY AS FLW BACKS DURING THE DAY WED
IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPSTREAM VIGOROUS SYS EJECTING EWD THROUGH
SRN AB. THIS SYS WILL CONT TO STREAK EWD THROUGH FRI AS ATTENDANT
SFC BNDRY SAGS SWD INTO THE LWR LAKES/OH VALLEY. HWVR AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE W/MOST OF THESE SYS/S...HGT FALLS ARE CONFINED WELL NORTH
W/TRAILING SFC FNTL BNDRY WKNG THROUGH TIME. AS SUCH AND IN
REFLECTION OF MOST 12Z MED RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...NOTHING MORE THAN
A LOW CHC POP WARRANTED LATE WEEK.

BEYOND THAT SERN US/WRN ATL UPR RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN FURTHER
W/SECONDARY SW AMPLIFYING THROUGH JAMES BAY NXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A BIT COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS TO DRIVE SEWD ACRS THE LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND W/SEASONABLY PLEASANT AND DRY WX XPCD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE ON REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY JUST UPSTREAM OF KSBN. THIS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH OVER THE
FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PD...AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE OUTFLOW THROUGH 00Z AT KSBN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE INVOF KFWA AFTER 21Z W/
THE BOUNDARY...PROMPTING TEMPO TSRA IN KFWA TAF DURING THIS
PERIOD. SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z...W/ BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR AND SOUTH OF
KFWA. STILL A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE PD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 011921
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF CWA AS OF
1845Z AS REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF LARGER SCALE FORCING. SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FROM THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT A RELATIVELY
STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM THROUGH 00Z...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...AS
LATE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION YIELDING 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE EAST OF
U.S. 31 AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL ORGANIZATION. COVERAGE WORDING REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH 00Z.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS LARGE SCALE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
TROF SLIDES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE WRT LOCATION/AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. AS SFC BOUNDARY
SETTLES SOUTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA...S/W ENERGY EJECTING THROUGH
THE LARGE SCALE TROF AND 120 KT UPPER JET EJECTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE STRONG FORCING ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE ARW-EAST...NMM-EAST AND 4KM SPC
WRF...SUGGEST AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION REINFORCING THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY
FROM AN EVANSVILLE TO COLUMBUS OH LINE. LOWER RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF PUTS THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC SFC FORCING...WITH THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAINFALL FROM
KIND TO KCLE. THIS SOLUTION WOULD PUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...FROM A MARION TO PAULDING LINE AND SOUTHWARD...AT RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL
EVENT GIVEN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK OVERHEAD...PWAT
VALUES IN TH 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND
12KFT...LITTLE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND CLOUD LAYER FLOW PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY...UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RAINFALL
WILL PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS OR HEADLINES OVERNIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SE OF THE U.S. 24 CORRIDOR. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS TONIGHT AND ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

AS FRONTAL WAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND SFC
BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL WANE
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. POP TRENDS FOR THE TUESDAY PERIOD
STILL IN LINE FROM PREVIOUS FCST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

PERTURBED NRN STREAM FLW ACRS SRN CANADA OVERTOP FLAT CONUS RIDGING
WILL CONT THIS PD. HIGH PRES BLDS EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS TO START THE
PD TUE NIGHT IN WAKE OF LEAD SW LIFTING UP THROUGH NRN QB. HWVR
SHALLOW CAA WING GIVES WAY QUICKLY AS FLW BACKS DURING THE DAY WED
IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPSTREAM VIGOROUS SYS EJECTING EWD THROUGH
SRN AB. THIS SYS WILL CONT TO STREAK EWD THROUGH FRI AS ATTENDANT
SFC BNDRY SAGS SWD INTO THE LWR LAKES/OH VALLEY. HWVR AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE W/MOST OF THESE SYS/S...HGT FALLS ARE CONFINED WELL NORTH
W/TRAILING SFC FNTL BNDRY WKNG THROUGH TIME. AS SUCH AND IN
REFLECTION OF MOST 12Z MED RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...NOTHING MORE THAN
A LOW CHC POP WARRANTED LATE WEEK.

BEYOND THAT SERN US/WRN ATL UPR RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN FURTHER
W/SECONDARY SW AMPLIFYING THROUGH JAMES BAY NXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A BIT COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS TO DRIVE SEWD ACRS THE LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND W/SEASONABLY PLEASANT AND DRY WX XPCD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE ON REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY JUST UPSTREAM OF KSBN. THIS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH OVER THE
FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PD...AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE OUTFLOW THROUGH 00Z AT KSBN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE INVOF KFWA AFTER 21Z W/
THE BOUNDARY...PROMPTING TEMPO TSRA IN KFWA TAF DURING THIS
PERIOD. SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z...W/ BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR AND SOUTH OF
KFWA. STILL A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE PD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 011732
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
132 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FEW ISOLD SHRA LIFTING NNEWD WITHIN DEEP LAYER WAA INTO SRN CWA
FOR PRE DAYBREAK MENTION. OTHERWISE FOCUS ALL ONTO UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IA CROSSING INTO NWRN IL ATTM.
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE PARAMETERS APPEAR POOR...WITH
BEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING LIFTING NWD THROUGH LONGWAVE TROF INTO
FAR NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES BY MID/LATE AM...WITH NWRN GREAT LAKES
CONVECTION PREFERRED COINCIDENT WITH BETTER KINEMATICS COLLOCATED
WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALL CENTROID. WELL DEVELOPED COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS/ERN KS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ESEWD
PROGRESSION AND LIKELY DECAY AS WELL AS IT IMPINGES ONTO HIR
LEADING EDGE MLCIN. THIS CONVECTIVE SPLIT WILL RENDER A
LESSENED/VEERED 8H FLOW ACROSS IA/MO/IL REGION THROUGH LATE
AM...WITH ANTICIPATED RAPID CONVECTIVE DECAY AS REMAINING
CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS 150-250 J/KG MLCIN ROOTED FROM NERN IL TO
ECNTL MO. WHILE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO INITIALLY PROVIDE
SOME RESTRAINT OF DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION...BY LATE AFTERNOON
EVEN CONSERVATIVELY MODIFIED LOWER 80S/71F YIELD 2500-3000 J/KG
SBCAPES. DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH RAMPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JETLET OVER MID MS VLY NOSING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH LEESIDE LAKE MICHIGAN
CONVERGENCE WITHIN LOWEST 100 MB AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HEIGHT
FALLS STILL PROVIDING 20-40M/12 HR FALLS INTO SW LWR MICHIGAN...OR
/AND MORE PROBABLE/ THE EJECTION OF NORTHERN MO MESOVORT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES HAVE KEPT POPS RESTRAINED...THOUGH
OPT FOR COVERAGE WORDING NW IN 21-24 UTC TIMEFRAME. WILL COVER
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL WITHIN HWO FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS
CONVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD ENHANCEMENT ANTICIPATED AS UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK RAMPS TO 120 KTS AS IT LIFTS FROM SRN WI TO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...LEAVING CWA WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF LONGWAVE TROF AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA BY 12 UTC TUE TO FAVORS PERSISTENT UPDRAFT
GENERATION. HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCIES WITH NEARLY 2.0 INCHES PWAT
LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AMID DEEP 12-13KFT WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND PERIOD OF LOW AOB 5 KTS MESOBETA ELEMENT VELOCITIES...HERE
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...LENDS CONTINUE HWO MENTION
OF POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAFL RATES/LOCALIZED FLOODING POTNL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND ON TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
SOUTHEAST. FAIR/SEASONABLE WX WILL THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREAD IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW. AN OPEN/POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL WAVE WILL TRANSLATE EAST
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NORTH-CENTRAL US THURSDAY...AND INTO
ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT PER LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO ATTENDANT
CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT BRINGS
CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF/GEM OUTPUT AS MORE
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETS UP NORTHWEST OF THE FA ON
NOSE OF LLJ. CAPPED WARM SECTOR LIKELY BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO
20-21C IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS TO MAKE A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY...WITH THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS TRENDS.

BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WEAK MID LVL FORCING/LAPSE RATES WELL REMOVED FROM PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES/ONTARIO...AND SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE...SUGGEST 30-40 TYPE POPS THE WAY TO GO AT THIS FCST
RANGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION
FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT/POOLING AS BOUNDARY LAYS OUT
MORE W-E ON SRN FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS. THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW FRIDAY AFTN-EVE AS STRONGER MID LEVEL
FLOW LIKELY LAGS BEHIND FRONT. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A
NOTEWORTHY COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE ON REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY JUST UPSTREAM OF KSBN. THIS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH OVER THE
FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PD...AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE OUTFLOW THROUGH 00Z AT KSBN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE INVOF KFWA AFTER 21Z W/
THE BOUNDARY...PROMPTING TEMPO TSRA IN KFWA TAF DURING THIS
PERIOD. SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z...W/ BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR AND SOUTH OF
KFWA. STILL A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 011732
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
132 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FEW ISOLD SHRA LIFTING NNEWD WITHIN DEEP LAYER WAA INTO SRN CWA
FOR PRE DAYBREAK MENTION. OTHERWISE FOCUS ALL ONTO UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IA CROSSING INTO NWRN IL ATTM.
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE PARAMETERS APPEAR POOR...WITH
BEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING LIFTING NWD THROUGH LONGWAVE TROF INTO
FAR NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES BY MID/LATE AM...WITH NWRN GREAT LAKES
CONVECTION PREFERRED COINCIDENT WITH BETTER KINEMATICS COLLOCATED
WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALL CENTROID. WELL DEVELOPED COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS/ERN KS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ESEWD
PROGRESSION AND LIKELY DECAY AS WELL AS IT IMPINGES ONTO HIR
LEADING EDGE MLCIN. THIS CONVECTIVE SPLIT WILL RENDER A
LESSENED/VEERED 8H FLOW ACROSS IA/MO/IL REGION THROUGH LATE
AM...WITH ANTICIPATED RAPID CONVECTIVE DECAY AS REMAINING
CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS 150-250 J/KG MLCIN ROOTED FROM NERN IL TO
ECNTL MO. WHILE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO INITIALLY PROVIDE
SOME RESTRAINT OF DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION...BY LATE AFTERNOON
EVEN CONSERVATIVELY MODIFIED LOWER 80S/71F YIELD 2500-3000 J/KG
SBCAPES. DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH RAMPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JETLET OVER MID MS VLY NOSING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH LEESIDE LAKE MICHIGAN
CONVERGENCE WITHIN LOWEST 100 MB AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HEIGHT
FALLS STILL PROVIDING 20-40M/12 HR FALLS INTO SW LWR MICHIGAN...OR
/AND MORE PROBABLE/ THE EJECTION OF NORTHERN MO MESOVORT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES HAVE KEPT POPS RESTRAINED...THOUGH
OPT FOR COVERAGE WORDING NW IN 21-24 UTC TIMEFRAME. WILL COVER
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL WITHIN HWO FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS
CONVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD ENHANCEMENT ANTICIPATED AS UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK RAMPS TO 120 KTS AS IT LIFTS FROM SRN WI TO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...LEAVING CWA WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF LONGWAVE TROF AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA BY 12 UTC TUE TO FAVORS PERSISTENT UPDRAFT
GENERATION. HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCIES WITH NEARLY 2.0 INCHES PWAT
LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AMID DEEP 12-13KFT WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND PERIOD OF LOW AOB 5 KTS MESOBETA ELEMENT VELOCITIES...HERE
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...LENDS CONTINUE HWO MENTION
OF POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAFL RATES/LOCALIZED FLOODING POTNL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND ON TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
SOUTHEAST. FAIR/SEASONABLE WX WILL THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREAD IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW. AN OPEN/POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL WAVE WILL TRANSLATE EAST
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NORTH-CENTRAL US THURSDAY...AND INTO
ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT PER LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO ATTENDANT
CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT BRINGS
CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF/GEM OUTPUT AS MORE
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETS UP NORTHWEST OF THE FA ON
NOSE OF LLJ. CAPPED WARM SECTOR LIKELY BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO
20-21C IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS TO MAKE A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY...WITH THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS TRENDS.

BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WEAK MID LVL FORCING/LAPSE RATES WELL REMOVED FROM PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES/ONTARIO...AND SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE...SUGGEST 30-40 TYPE POPS THE WAY TO GO AT THIS FCST
RANGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION
FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT/POOLING AS BOUNDARY LAYS OUT
MORE W-E ON SRN FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS. THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW FRIDAY AFTN-EVE AS STRONGER MID LEVEL
FLOW LIKELY LAGS BEHIND FRONT. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A
NOTEWORTHY COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE ON REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY JUST UPSTREAM OF KSBN. THIS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH OVER THE
FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PD...AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE OUTFLOW THROUGH 00Z AT KSBN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE INVOF KFWA AFTER 21Z W/
THE BOUNDARY...PROMPTING TEMPO TSRA IN KFWA TAF DURING THIS
PERIOD. SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z...W/ BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR AND SOUTH OF
KFWA. STILL A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 011149
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
749 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FEW ISOLD SHRA LIFTING NNEWD WITHIN DEEP LAYER WAA INTO SRN CWA
FOR PRE DAYBREAK MENTION. OTHERWISE FOCUS ALL ONTO UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IA CROSSING INTO NWRN IL ATTM.
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE PARAMETERS APPEAR POOR...WITH
BEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING LIFTING NWD THROUGH LONGWAVE TROF INTO
FAR NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES BY MID/LATE AM...WITH NWRN GREAT LAKES
CONVECTION PREFERRED COINCIDENT WITH BETTER KINEMATICS COLLOCATED
WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALL CENTROID. WELL DEVELOPED COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS/ERN KS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ESEWD
PROGRESSION AND LIKELY DECAY AS WELL AS IT IMPINGES ONTO HIR
LEADING EDGE MLCIN. THIS CONVECTIVE SPLIT WILL RENDER A
LESSENED/VEERED 8H FLOW ACROSS IA/MO/IL REGION THROUGH LATE
AM...WITH ANTICIPATED RAPID CONVECTIVE DECAY AS REMAINING
CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS 150-250 J/KG MLCIN ROOTED FROM NERN IL TO
ECNTL MO. WHILE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO INITIALLY PROVIDE
SOME RESTRAINT OF DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION...BY LATE AFTERNOON
EVEN CONSERVATIVELY MODIFIED LOWER 80S/71F YIELD 2500-3000 J/KG
SBCAPES. DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH RAMPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JETLET OVER MID MS VLY NOSING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH LEESIDE LAKE MICHIGAN
CONVERGENCE WITHIN LOWEST 100 MB AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HEIGHT
FALLS STILL PROVIDING 20-40M/12 HR FALLS INTO SW LWR MICHIGAN...OR
/AND MORE PROBABLE/ THE EJECTION OF NORTHERN MO MESOVORT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES HAVE KEPT POPS RESTRAINED...THOUGH
OPT FOR COVERAGE WORDING NW IN 21-24 UTC TIMEFRAME. WILL COVER
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL WITHIN HWO FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS
CONVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD ENHANCEMENT ANTICIPATED AS UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK RAMPS TO 120 KTS AS IT LIFTS FROM SRN WI TO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...LEAVING CWA WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF LONGWAVE TROF AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA BY 12 UTC TUE TO FAVORS PERSISTENT UPDRAFT
GENERATION. HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCIES WITH NEARLY 2.0 INCHES PWAT
LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AMID DEEP 12-13KFT WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND PERIOD OF LOW AOB 5 KTS MESOBETA ELEMENT VELOCITIES...HERE
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...LENDS CONTINUE HWO MENTION
OF POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAFL RATES/LOCALIZED FLOODING POTNL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND ON TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
SOUTHEAST. FAIR/SEASONABLE WX WILL THEN PERIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREAD IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW. AN OPEN/POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL WAVE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NORTH-CENTRAL US
THURSDAY...AND INTO ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT PER
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO
ATTENDANT CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
BRINGS CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF/GEM
OUTPUT AS MORE PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETS UP NORTHWEST
OF THE FA ON NOSE OF LLJ. CAPPED WARM SECTOR LIKELY BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING TO 20-21C IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW
HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO MAKE A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY...WITH
THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS TRENDS.

BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WEAK MID LVL FORCING/LAPSE RATES WELL REMOVED FROM PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES/ONTARIO...AND SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE...SUGGEST 30-40 TYPE POPS THE WAY TO GO AT THIS FCST
RANGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION
FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT/POOLING AS BOUNDARY LAYS OUT
MORE W-E ON SRN FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS. THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW FRIDAY AFTN-EVE AS STRONGER MID LEVEL
FLOW LIKELY LAGS BEHIND FRONT. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A
NOTEWORTHY COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FEW HOURS OF FUELING/ALTERNATE IMPACT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
THIS MORNING WITH HIGH END IFR CIGS DEVELOPING WITH STRONGLY
MIXED/MOIST NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER. KIWX VWP SHOWING 25 KTS
OFF FIRST GATE. GREATER MIXED DEPTH BY LATE MORNING AND INTO
AFTERNOON PORTENDS TO HIR SSWLY GUSTS. ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NERN IL/NWRN IN AS AIRMASS REACHES NEAR PEAK
DESTABILIZATION AND APPROACH OF MESOVORT...PRESENTLY OVER NERN MO.
CONVECTION SPREADING EWD TO KFWA TOWARD SUNSET. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ASSOCIATED NEAR
COLD FRONT AND FRONTAL WAVE SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. ONLY MENTION VCTS FOR NOW GIVEN LATTER
PORTION OF TAF PERIOD AND TEMPORAL/SPATIAL UNCERTAINTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 011149
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
749 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FEW ISOLD SHRA LIFTING NNEWD WITHIN DEEP LAYER WAA INTO SRN CWA
FOR PRE DAYBREAK MENTION. OTHERWISE FOCUS ALL ONTO UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IA CROSSING INTO NWRN IL ATTM.
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE PARAMETERS APPEAR POOR...WITH
BEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING LIFTING NWD THROUGH LONGWAVE TROF INTO
FAR NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES BY MID/LATE AM...WITH NWRN GREAT LAKES
CONVECTION PREFERRED COINCIDENT WITH BETTER KINEMATICS COLLOCATED
WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALL CENTROID. WELL DEVELOPED COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS/ERN KS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ESEWD
PROGRESSION AND LIKELY DECAY AS WELL AS IT IMPINGES ONTO HIR
LEADING EDGE MLCIN. THIS CONVECTIVE SPLIT WILL RENDER A
LESSENED/VEERED 8H FLOW ACROSS IA/MO/IL REGION THROUGH LATE
AM...WITH ANTICIPATED RAPID CONVECTIVE DECAY AS REMAINING
CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS 150-250 J/KG MLCIN ROOTED FROM NERN IL TO
ECNTL MO. WHILE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO INITIALLY PROVIDE
SOME RESTRAINT OF DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION...BY LATE AFTERNOON
EVEN CONSERVATIVELY MODIFIED LOWER 80S/71F YIELD 2500-3000 J/KG
SBCAPES. DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH RAMPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JETLET OVER MID MS VLY NOSING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH LEESIDE LAKE MICHIGAN
CONVERGENCE WITHIN LOWEST 100 MB AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HEIGHT
FALLS STILL PROVIDING 20-40M/12 HR FALLS INTO SW LWR MICHIGAN...OR
/AND MORE PROBABLE/ THE EJECTION OF NORTHERN MO MESOVORT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES HAVE KEPT POPS RESTRAINED...THOUGH
OPT FOR COVERAGE WORDING NW IN 21-24 UTC TIMEFRAME. WILL COVER
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL WITHIN HWO FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS
CONVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD ENHANCEMENT ANTICIPATED AS UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK RAMPS TO 120 KTS AS IT LIFTS FROM SRN WI TO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...LEAVING CWA WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF LONGWAVE TROF AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA BY 12 UTC TUE TO FAVORS PERSISTENT UPDRAFT
GENERATION. HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCIES WITH NEARLY 2.0 INCHES PWAT
LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AMID DEEP 12-13KFT WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND PERIOD OF LOW AOB 5 KTS MESOBETA ELEMENT VELOCITIES...HERE
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...LENDS CONTINUE HWO MENTION
OF POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAFL RATES/LOCALIZED FLOODING POTNL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND ON TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
SOUTHEAST. FAIR/SEASONABLE WX WILL THEN PERIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREAD IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW. AN OPEN/POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL WAVE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NORTH-CENTRAL US
THURSDAY...AND INTO ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT PER
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO
ATTENDANT CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
BRINGS CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF/GEM
OUTPUT AS MORE PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETS UP NORTHWEST
OF THE FA ON NOSE OF LLJ. CAPPED WARM SECTOR LIKELY BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING TO 20-21C IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW
HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO MAKE A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY...WITH
THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS TRENDS.

BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WEAK MID LVL FORCING/LAPSE RATES WELL REMOVED FROM PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES/ONTARIO...AND SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE...SUGGEST 30-40 TYPE POPS THE WAY TO GO AT THIS FCST
RANGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION
FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT/POOLING AS BOUNDARY LAYS OUT
MORE W-E ON SRN FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS. THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW FRIDAY AFTN-EVE AS STRONGER MID LEVEL
FLOW LIKELY LAGS BEHIND FRONT. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A
NOTEWORTHY COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FEW HOURS OF FUELING/ALTERNATE IMPACT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
THIS MORNING WITH HIGH END IFR CIGS DEVELOPING WITH STRONGLY
MIXED/MOIST NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER. KIWX VWP SHOWING 25 KTS
OFF FIRST GATE. GREATER MIXED DEPTH BY LATE MORNING AND INTO
AFTERNOON PORTENDS TO HIR SSWLY GUSTS. ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NERN IL/NWRN IN AS AIRMASS REACHES NEAR PEAK
DESTABILIZATION AND APPROACH OF MESOVORT...PRESENTLY OVER NERN MO.
CONVECTION SPREADING EWD TO KFWA TOWARD SUNSET. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ASSOCIATED NEAR
COLD FRONT AND FRONTAL WAVE SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. ONLY MENTION VCTS FOR NOW GIVEN LATTER
PORTION OF TAF PERIOD AND TEMPORAL/SPATIAL UNCERTAINTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 010844
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
444 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FEW ISOLD SHRA LIFTING NNEWD WITHIN DEEP LAYER WAA INTO SRN CWA
FOR PRE DAYBREAK MENTION. OTHERWISE FOCUS ALL ONTO UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IA CROSSING INTO NWRN IL ATTM.
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE PARAMETERS APPEAR POOR...WITH
BEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING LIFTING NWD THROUGH LONGWAVE TROF INTO
FAR NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES BY MID/LATE AM...WITH NWRN GREAT LAKES
CONVECTION PREFERRED COINCIDENT WITH BETTER KINEMATICS COLLOCATED
WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALL CENTROID. WELL DEVELOPED COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS/ERN KS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ESEWD
PROGRESSION AND LIKELY DECAY AS WELL AS IT IMPINGES ONTO HIR
LEADING EDGE MLCIN. THIS CONVECTIVE SPLIT WILL RENDER A
LESSENED/VEERED 8H FLOW ACROSS IA/MO/IL REGION THROUGH LATE
AM...WITH ANTICIPATED RAPID CONVECTIVE DECAY AS REMAINING
CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS 150-250 J/KG MLCIN ROOTED FROM NERN IL TO
ECNTL MO. WHILE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO INITIALLY PROVIDE
SOME RESTRAINT OF DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION...BY LATE AFTERNOON
EVEN CONSERVATIVELY MODIFIED LOWER 80S/71F YIELD 2500-3000 J/KG
SBCAPES. DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH RAMPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JETLET OVER MID MS VLY NOSING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH LEESIDE LAKE MICHIGAN
CONVERGENCE WITHIN LOWEST 100 MB AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HEIGHT
FALLS STILL PROVIDING 20-40M/12 HR FALLS INTO SW LWR MICHIGAN...OR
/AND MORE PROBABLE/ THE EJECTION OF NORTHERN MO MESOVORT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES HAVE KEPT POPS RESTRAINED...THOUGH
OPT FOR COVERAGE WORDING NW IN 21-24 UTC TIMEFRAME. WILL COVER
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL WITHIN HWO FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS
CONVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD ENHANCEMENT ANTICIPATED AS UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK RAMPS TO 120 KTS AS IT LIFTS FROM SRN WI TO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...LEAVING CWA WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF LONGWAVE TROF AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA BY 12 UTC TUE TO FAVORS PERSISTENT UPDRAFT
GENERATION. HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCIES WITH NEARLY 2.0 INCHES PWAT
LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AMID DEEP 12-13KFT WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND PERIOD OF LOW AOB 5 KTS MESOBETA ELEMENT VELOCITIES...HERE
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...LENDS CONTINUE HWO MENTION
OF POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAFL RATES/LOCALIZED FLOODING POTNL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND ON TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
SOUTHEAST. FAIR/SEASONABLE WX WILL THEN PERIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREAD IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW. AN OPEN/POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL WAVE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NORTH-CENTRAL US
THURSDAY...AND INTO ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT PER
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO
ATTENDANT CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
BRINGS CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF/GEM
OUTPUT AS MORE PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETS UP NORTHWEST
OF THE FA ON NOSE OF LLJ. CAPPED WARM SECTOR LIKELY BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING TO 20-21C IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW
HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO MAKE A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY...WITH
THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS TRENDS.

BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WEAK MID LVL FORCING/LAPSE RATES WELL REMOVED FROM PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES/ONTARIO...AND SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE...SUGGEST 30-40 TYPE POPS THE WAY TO GO AT THIS FCST
RANGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION
FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT/POOLING AS BOUNDARY LAYS OUT
MORE W-E ON SRN FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS. THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW FRIDAY AFTN-EVE AS STRONGER MID LEVEL
FLOW LIKELY LAGS BEHIND FRONT. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A
NOTEWORTHY COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

INCREASED OPTIMISM WITH RESPECT TO EARLY MORNING STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. MUCH LESS DURATION GIVEN CURRENT TAMDAR/NAM12 POINT
SOUNDINGS WITH ONLY BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY LIKELY AND MUCH
CLOSER TO SUNUP. ADDITIONALLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE HIGHLY ELEVATED DECK WITHIN ELEVATED/MOIST INVERSION
LAYER. THEREFORE ONLY HAVE BRIEF MENTION OF FUEL ALT CONDITIONS AT
KFWA PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY PROVIDE
A BRIEF LATE AM/MIDDAY SHRA INVOF KSBN...THOUGH COVERAGE/PROB OF
OCCURRENCE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ONLY VCSH MENTION GIVEN LITTLE
AVIATION IMPACT. FOCUS LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD SHIFTS TO
RENEWAL OF CONVECTION FOCUS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE
PROVIDED TEMPO GROUP WITHIN BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SEEN AT
PRESENT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 010844
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
444 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FEW ISOLD SHRA LIFTING NNEWD WITHIN DEEP LAYER WAA INTO SRN CWA
FOR PRE DAYBREAK MENTION. OTHERWISE FOCUS ALL ONTO UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IA CROSSING INTO NWRN IL ATTM.
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE PARAMETERS APPEAR POOR...WITH
BEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING LIFTING NWD THROUGH LONGWAVE TROF INTO
FAR NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES BY MID/LATE AM...WITH NWRN GREAT LAKES
CONVECTION PREFERRED COINCIDENT WITH BETTER KINEMATICS COLLOCATED
WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALL CENTROID. WELL DEVELOPED COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS/ERN KS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ESEWD
PROGRESSION AND LIKELY DECAY AS WELL AS IT IMPINGES ONTO HIR
LEADING EDGE MLCIN. THIS CONVECTIVE SPLIT WILL RENDER A
LESSENED/VEERED 8H FLOW ACROSS IA/MO/IL REGION THROUGH LATE
AM...WITH ANTICIPATED RAPID CONVECTIVE DECAY AS REMAINING
CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS 150-250 J/KG MLCIN ROOTED FROM NERN IL TO
ECNTL MO. WHILE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO INITIALLY PROVIDE
SOME RESTRAINT OF DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION...BY LATE AFTERNOON
EVEN CONSERVATIVELY MODIFIED LOWER 80S/71F YIELD 2500-3000 J/KG
SBCAPES. DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH RAMPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JETLET OVER MID MS VLY NOSING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH LEESIDE LAKE MICHIGAN
CONVERGENCE WITHIN LOWEST 100 MB AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HEIGHT
FALLS STILL PROVIDING 20-40M/12 HR FALLS INTO SW LWR MICHIGAN...OR
/AND MORE PROBABLE/ THE EJECTION OF NORTHERN MO MESOVORT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES HAVE KEPT POPS RESTRAINED...THOUGH
OPT FOR COVERAGE WORDING NW IN 21-24 UTC TIMEFRAME. WILL COVER
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL WITHIN HWO FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS
CONVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD ENHANCEMENT ANTICIPATED AS UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK RAMPS TO 120 KTS AS IT LIFTS FROM SRN WI TO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...LEAVING CWA WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF LONGWAVE TROF AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA BY 12 UTC TUE TO FAVORS PERSISTENT UPDRAFT
GENERATION. HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCIES WITH NEARLY 2.0 INCHES PWAT
LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AMID DEEP 12-13KFT WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND PERIOD OF LOW AOB 5 KTS MESOBETA ELEMENT VELOCITIES...HERE
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...LENDS CONTINUE HWO MENTION
OF POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAFL RATES/LOCALIZED FLOODING POTNL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND ON TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
SOUTHEAST. FAIR/SEASONABLE WX WILL THEN PERIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREAD IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW. AN OPEN/POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL WAVE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NORTH-CENTRAL US
THURSDAY...AND INTO ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT PER
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO
ATTENDANT CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
BRINGS CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF/GEM
OUTPUT AS MORE PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETS UP NORTHWEST
OF THE FA ON NOSE OF LLJ. CAPPED WARM SECTOR LIKELY BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING TO 20-21C IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW
HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO MAKE A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY...WITH
THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS TRENDS.

BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WEAK MID LVL FORCING/LAPSE RATES WELL REMOVED FROM PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES/ONTARIO...AND SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE...SUGGEST 30-40 TYPE POPS THE WAY TO GO AT THIS FCST
RANGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION
FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT/POOLING AS BOUNDARY LAYS OUT
MORE W-E ON SRN FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS. THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW FRIDAY AFTN-EVE AS STRONGER MID LEVEL
FLOW LIKELY LAGS BEHIND FRONT. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A
NOTEWORTHY COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

INCREASED OPTIMISM WITH RESPECT TO EARLY MORNING STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. MUCH LESS DURATION GIVEN CURRENT TAMDAR/NAM12 POINT
SOUNDINGS WITH ONLY BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY LIKELY AND MUCH
CLOSER TO SUNUP. ADDITIONALLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE HIGHLY ELEVATED DECK WITHIN ELEVATED/MOIST INVERSION
LAYER. THEREFORE ONLY HAVE BRIEF MENTION OF FUEL ALT CONDITIONS AT
KFWA PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY PROVIDE
A BRIEF LATE AM/MIDDAY SHRA INVOF KSBN...THOUGH COVERAGE/PROB OF
OCCURRENCE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ONLY VCSH MENTION GIVEN LITTLE
AVIATION IMPACT. FOCUS LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD SHIFTS TO
RENEWAL OF CONVECTION FOCUS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE
PROVIDED TEMPO GROUP WITHIN BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SEEN AT
PRESENT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 010556
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
156 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PESKY STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SHALLOW POST FNTL INVERSION WAS SLW
TO BREAKUP THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WELL UNDERWAY NOW W/CONCURRENT
UPTICK IN POST FNTL MIXING. SUFFICIENT AFTN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
HAS OCCURRED WITHIN CONTD WEAKLY CONFLUENT SFC FLW TO YIELD A FEW
ISOLD SHRA ACRS THE CWA AND WILL RIDE A LOW CHC POP MENTION
THROUGH THIS AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. OTRWS CONTD WK BUT MOIST
SWRLY FLW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BFR STRENGTHENING
ON MON AHD OF NXT POTENT UPSTREAM SW EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES. CLRG COMBINED W/WK GRADIENT FLW PORTENDS A LIKELY
REDVLPMNT OF LOW STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG AFT MIDNIGHT YET
BELIEVE SFC GRADIENT AND INCREASING HIGH CLDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CURTAIL DENSE FOG DVLPMNT.

UPSTREAM ROCKIES SW EJECTS OUT IN SIMILAR FASHION TO LAST TWO
SYS/S...UP THROUGH THE NRN LAKES MON AFTN W/TRAILING SFC TROUGH
STALLING OUT AGAIN DOWN NEAR THE OH RVR ON TUE. SYNOPTIC PATTN
REMAINS PERSISTENT W/A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOCKED
IN ACRS THE SRN LAKES/OH VALLEY COUNTERED BY POOR MID LVL LAPSE
RATES AND GENERALLY POOR PREFNTL BASED FORCING AS LARGER SCALE HGT
FALLS SHIFT WELL NW OF AREA. THUS BELIEVE POPS ON MON ARE OVERDONE
ESP IN LIGHT OF NEW 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON PRIOR TWO
GENERALLY MISHANDLED SYSTEMS HAVE CUT THINGS BACK ESP SE THIRD.
RENEWED DEEP MIXING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION SHLD YIELD CLOSE
TO GOING FCST MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS LIES WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT.

SFC COLD FRONT FROM ATTENDANT NRN ONTARIO SFC CYCLONE PROGGED TO BE
JUST WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ONGOING CONVECTION LIKELY AFTER
00Z ACROSS THE AREA...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES E/SE THROUGH THE
AREA. POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT AS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC DY2 OUTLOOK INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...GIVEN 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR...MAY BE IN THE LINEAR FROM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AT THIS
POINT...SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER 00Z WILL BE CONTINGENT ON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...DIURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD YIELD A WANING
SEVERE THREAT HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AFTER 03Z. AS SFC
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND ORIENT WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS BROAD NORTH CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...PWAT
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...WARM CLOUD LAYER GREATER THAN
11KFT...MODEST MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG W/ LONG AND
SKINNY CAPE SOUNDING PROFILE...SHOULD YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILE ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...SMALL SPEED
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB...ALONG WITH REGION UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES UPPER JET...SHOULD ALLOW THE
FOCUS OF TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS COULD BE ENHANCED IF LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER FOCUS OF THE JET WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONTEMPLATED ADDING HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION INTO
FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTIES WILL
THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL PRECLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME...AS FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IF 00Z-06Z CONVECTION REINFORCES A
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE PRECIPITATION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AS UPPER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS AND SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL AS NORTHERN TIER SHORTWAVE/ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE
PUSHES A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS PROVIDED BY ALLBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

INCREASED OPTIMISM WITH RESPECT TO EARLY MORNING STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. MUCH LESS DURATION GIVEN CURRENT TAMDAR/NAM12 POINT
SOUNDINGS WITH ONLY BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY LIKELY AND MUCH
CLOSER TO SUNUP. ADDITIONALLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE HIGHLY ELEVATED DECK WITHIN ELEVATED/MOIST INVERSION
LAYER. THEREFORE ONLY HAVE BRIEF MENTION OF FUEL ALT CONDITIONS AT
KFWA PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY PROVIDE
A BRIEF LATE AM/MIDDAY SHRA INVOF KSBN...THOUGH COVERAGE/PROB OF
OCCURRENCE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ONLY VCSH MENTION GIVEN LITTLE
AVIATION IMPACT. FOCUS LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD SHIFTS TO
RENEWAL OF CONVECTION FOCUS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE
PROVIDED TEMPO GROUP WITHIN BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SEEN AT
PRESENT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...NG
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA













000
FXUS63 KIWX 010556
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
156 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PESKY STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SHALLOW POST FNTL INVERSION WAS SLW
TO BREAKUP THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WELL UNDERWAY NOW W/CONCURRENT
UPTICK IN POST FNTL MIXING. SUFFICIENT AFTN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
HAS OCCURRED WITHIN CONTD WEAKLY CONFLUENT SFC FLW TO YIELD A FEW
ISOLD SHRA ACRS THE CWA AND WILL RIDE A LOW CHC POP MENTION
THROUGH THIS AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. OTRWS CONTD WK BUT MOIST
SWRLY FLW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BFR STRENGTHENING
ON MON AHD OF NXT POTENT UPSTREAM SW EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES. CLRG COMBINED W/WK GRADIENT FLW PORTENDS A LIKELY
REDVLPMNT OF LOW STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG AFT MIDNIGHT YET
BELIEVE SFC GRADIENT AND INCREASING HIGH CLDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CURTAIL DENSE FOG DVLPMNT.

UPSTREAM ROCKIES SW EJECTS OUT IN SIMILAR FASHION TO LAST TWO
SYS/S...UP THROUGH THE NRN LAKES MON AFTN W/TRAILING SFC TROUGH
STALLING OUT AGAIN DOWN NEAR THE OH RVR ON TUE. SYNOPTIC PATTN
REMAINS PERSISTENT W/A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOCKED
IN ACRS THE SRN LAKES/OH VALLEY COUNTERED BY POOR MID LVL LAPSE
RATES AND GENERALLY POOR PREFNTL BASED FORCING AS LARGER SCALE HGT
FALLS SHIFT WELL NW OF AREA. THUS BELIEVE POPS ON MON ARE OVERDONE
ESP IN LIGHT OF NEW 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON PRIOR TWO
GENERALLY MISHANDLED SYSTEMS HAVE CUT THINGS BACK ESP SE THIRD.
RENEWED DEEP MIXING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION SHLD YIELD CLOSE
TO GOING FCST MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS LIES WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT.

SFC COLD FRONT FROM ATTENDANT NRN ONTARIO SFC CYCLONE PROGGED TO BE
JUST WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ONGOING CONVECTION LIKELY AFTER
00Z ACROSS THE AREA...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES E/SE THROUGH THE
AREA. POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT AS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC DY2 OUTLOOK INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...GIVEN 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR...MAY BE IN THE LINEAR FROM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AT THIS
POINT...SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER 00Z WILL BE CONTINGENT ON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...DIURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD YIELD A WANING
SEVERE THREAT HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AFTER 03Z. AS SFC
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND ORIENT WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS BROAD NORTH CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...PWAT
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...WARM CLOUD LAYER GREATER THAN
11KFT...MODEST MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG W/ LONG AND
SKINNY CAPE SOUNDING PROFILE...SHOULD YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILE ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...SMALL SPEED
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB...ALONG WITH REGION UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES UPPER JET...SHOULD ALLOW THE
FOCUS OF TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS COULD BE ENHANCED IF LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER FOCUS OF THE JET WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONTEMPLATED ADDING HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION INTO
FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTIES WILL
THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL PRECLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME...AS FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IF 00Z-06Z CONVECTION REINFORCES A
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE PRECIPITATION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AS UPPER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS AND SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL AS NORTHERN TIER SHORTWAVE/ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE
PUSHES A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS PROVIDED BY ALLBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

INCREASED OPTIMISM WITH RESPECT TO EARLY MORNING STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. MUCH LESS DURATION GIVEN CURRENT TAMDAR/NAM12 POINT
SOUNDINGS WITH ONLY BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY LIKELY AND MUCH
CLOSER TO SUNUP. ADDITIONALLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE HIGHLY ELEVATED DECK WITHIN ELEVATED/MOIST INVERSION
LAYER. THEREFORE ONLY HAVE BRIEF MENTION OF FUEL ALT CONDITIONS AT
KFWA PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY PROVIDE
A BRIEF LATE AM/MIDDAY SHRA INVOF KSBN...THOUGH COVERAGE/PROB OF
OCCURRENCE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ONLY VCSH MENTION GIVEN LITTLE
AVIATION IMPACT. FOCUS LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD SHIFTS TO
RENEWAL OF CONVECTION FOCUS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE
PROVIDED TEMPO GROUP WITHIN BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SEEN AT
PRESENT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...NG
AVIATION...MURPHY


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 312312
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
712 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PESKY STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SHALLOW POST FNTL INVERSION WAS SLW
TO BREAKUP THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WELL UNDERWAY NOW W/CONCURRENT
UPTICK IN POST FNTL MIXING. SUFFICIENT AFTN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
HAS OCCURRED WITHIN CONTD WEAKLY CONFLUENT SFC FLW TO YIELD A FEW
ISOLD SHRA ACRS THE CWA AND WILL RIDE A LOW CHC POP MENTION
THROUGH THIS AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. OTRWS CONTD WK BUT MOIST
SWRLY FLW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BFR STRENGTHENING
ON MON AHD OF NXT POTENT UPSTREAM SW EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES. CLRG COMBINED W/WK GRADIENT FLW PORTENDS A LIKELY
REDVLPMNT OF LOW STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG AFT MIDNIGHT YET
BELIEVE SFC GRADIENT AND INCREASING HIGH CLDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CURTAIL DENSE FOG DVLPMNT.

UPSTREAM ROCKIES SW EJECTS OUT IN SIMILAR FASHION TO LAST TWO
SYS/S...UP THROUGH THE NRN LAKES MON AFTN W/TRAILING SFC TROUGH
STALLING OUT AGAIN DOWN NEAR THE OH RVR ON TUE. SYNOPTIC PATTN
REMAINS PERSISTENT W/A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOCKED
IN ACRS THE SRN LAKES/OH VALLEY COUNTERED BY POOR MID LVL LAPSE
RATES AND GENERALLY POOR PREFNTL BASED FORCING AS LARGER SCALE HGT
FALLS SHIFT WELL NW OF AREA. THUS BELIEVE POPS ON MON ARE OVERDONE
ESP IN LIGHT OF NEW 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON PRIOR TWO
GENERALLY MISHANDLED SYSTEMS HAVE CUT THINGS BACK ESP SE THIRD.
RENEWED DEEP MIXING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION SHLD YIELD CLOSE
TO GOING FCST MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS LIES WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT.

SFC COLD FRONT FROM ATTENDANT NRN ONTARIO SFC CYCLONE PROGGED TO BE
JUST WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ONGOING CONVECTION LIKELY AFTER
00Z ACROSS THE AREA...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES E/SE THROUGH THE
AREA. POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT AS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC DY2 OUTLOOK INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...GIVEN 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR...MAY BE IN THE LINEAR FROM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AT THIS
POINT...SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER 00Z WILL BE CONTINGENT ON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...DIURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD YIELD A WANING
SEVERE THREAT HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AFTER 03Z. AS SFC
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND ORIENT WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS BROAD NORTH CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...PWAT
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...WARM CLOUD LAYER GREATER THAN
11KFT...MODEST MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG W/ LONG AND
SKINNY CAPE SOUNDING PROFILE...SHOULD YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILE ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...SMALL SPEED
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB...ALONG WITH REGION UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES UPPER JET...SHOULD ALLOW THE
FOCUS OF TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS COULD BE ENHANCED IF LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER FOCUS OF THE JET WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONTEMPLATED ADDING HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION INTO
FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTIES WILL
THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL PRECLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME...AS FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IF 00Z-06Z CONVECTION REINFORCES A
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE PRECIPITATION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AS UPPER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS AND SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL AS NORTHERN TIER SHORTWAVE/ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE
PUSHES A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS PROVIDED BY ALLBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 712 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. BOUNDARY
LAYER IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY AROUND 70F.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...TO THE POINT OF SATURATION. STILL THINK LOW
STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS GRADIENT WIND DOES NOT GO
COMPLETELY CALM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE DO NOT SHOW A
CLEAR SIGNAL FOR IFR STRATUS THOUGH. CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
IFR CONDITIONS IS LOW. WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. GIVEN EXPECTED LATE DAY TIMING...WILL HOLD
OFF ON INCLUSION IN THE TAF FOR THIS CYCLE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...NG
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 311941
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
341 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PESKY STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SHALLOW POST FNTL INVERSION WAS SLW
TO BREAKUP THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WELL UNDERWAY NOW W/CONCURRENT
UPTICK IN POST FNTL MIXING. SUFFICIENT AFTN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
HAS OCCURRED WITHIN CONTD WEAKLY CONFLUENT SFC FLW TO YIELD A FEW
ISOLD SHRA ACRS THE CWA AND WILL RIDE A LOW CHC POP MENTION
THROUGH THIS AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. OTRWS CONTD WK BUT MOIST
SWRLY FLW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BFR STRENGTHENING
ON MON AHD OF NXT POTENT UPSTREAM SW EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES. CLRG COMBINED W/WK GRADIENT FLW PORTENDS A LIKELY
REDVLPMNT OF LOW STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG AFT MIDNIGHT YET
BELIEVE SFC GRADIENT AND INCREASING HIGH CLDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CURTAIL DENSE FOG DVLPMNT.

UPSTREAM ROCKIES SW EJECTS OUT IN SIMILAR FASHION TO LAST TWO
SYS/S...UP THROUGH THE NRN LAKES MON AFTN W/TRAILING SFC TROUGH
STALLING OUT AGAIN DOWN NEAR THE OH RVR ON TUE. SYNOPTIC PATTN
REMAINS PERSISTENT W/A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOCKED
IN ACRS THE SRN LAKES/OH VALLEY COUNTERED BY POOR MID LVL LAPSE
RATES AND GENERALLY POOR PREFNTL BASED FORCING AS LARGER SCALE HGT
FALLS SHIFT WELL NW OF AREA. THUS BELIEVE POPS ON MON ARE OVERDONE
ESP IN LIGHT OF NEW 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON PRIOR TWO
GENERALLY MISHANDLED SYSTEMS HAVE CUT THINGS BACK ESP SE THIRD.
RENEWED DEEP MIXING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION SHLD YIELD CLOSE
TO GOING FCST MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS LIES WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT.

SFC COLD FRONT FROM ATTENDANT NRN ONTARIO SFC CYCLONE PROGGED TO BE
JUST WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ONGOING CONVECTION LIKELY AFTER
00Z ACROSS THE AREA...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES E/SE THROUGH THE
AREA. POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT AS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC DY2 OUTLOOK INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...GIVEN 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR...MAY BE IN THE LINEAR FROM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AT THIS
POINT...SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER 00Z WILL BE CONTINGENT ON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...DIURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD YIELD A WANING
SEVERE THREAT HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AFTER 03Z. AS SFC
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND ORIENT WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS BROAD NORTH CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...PWAT
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...WARM CLOUD LAYER GREATER THAN
11KFT...MODEST MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG W/ LONG AND
SKINNY CAPE SOUNDING PROFILE...SHOULD YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILE ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...SMALL SPEED
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB...ALONG WITH REGION UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES UPPER JET...SHOULD ALLOW THE
FOCUS OF TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS COULD BE ENHANCED IF LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER FOCUS OF THE JET WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONTEMPLATED ADDING HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION INTO
FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTIES WILL
THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL PRECLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME...AS FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IF 00Z-06Z CONVECTION REINFORCES A
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE PRECIPITATION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AS UPPER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS AND SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL AS NORTHERN TIER SHORTWAVE/ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE
PUSHES A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS PROVIDED BY ALLBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PESKY STRATUS FINALLY BREAKING UP EARLY THIS AFTN W/RECENT UPTICK
IN LL MIXING AND XPC THIS TREND WILL CONT THROUGH LT AFTN. AN
ISOLD SHRA INBTWN THE TERMINALS REMAINS PSBL YET THIS AFTN WITHIN
WEAK SFC CONFLUENCE BUT TAF MENTION OMITTED FROM THE TERMINALS FOR
18Z ISSUANCE. PRIMARY PROB LIES W/LIKELY RENEWED STRATUS/FOG
REDVLPMNT OVERNIGHT W/PERSISTENT SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE. PER
GENERALLY WK GRADIENT FLW AND AT LEAST EARLY CLRG MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AFT MIDNIGHT LIKELY YET BELIEVE MORE SIG ISSUE WILL
BE IFR CIGS DVLPMNT AS STRATUS REFORMS. REGARDLESS THIS WILL BURN
OFF/MIX OUT MON MORNING AS LLJ FLW RAMPS SIGLY AHD OF SW TROUGH
EJECTING THROUGH THE PLAINS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...NG
AVIATION...T


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 311941
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
341 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PESKY STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SHALLOW POST FNTL INVERSION WAS SLW
TO BREAKUP THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WELL UNDERWAY NOW W/CONCURRENT
UPTICK IN POST FNTL MIXING. SUFFICIENT AFTN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
HAS OCCURRED WITHIN CONTD WEAKLY CONFLUENT SFC FLW TO YIELD A FEW
ISOLD SHRA ACRS THE CWA AND WILL RIDE A LOW CHC POP MENTION
THROUGH THIS AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. OTRWS CONTD WK BUT MOIST
SWRLY FLW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BFR STRENGTHENING
ON MON AHD OF NXT POTENT UPSTREAM SW EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES. CLRG COMBINED W/WK GRADIENT FLW PORTENDS A LIKELY
REDVLPMNT OF LOW STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG AFT MIDNIGHT YET
BELIEVE SFC GRADIENT AND INCREASING HIGH CLDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CURTAIL DENSE FOG DVLPMNT.

UPSTREAM ROCKIES SW EJECTS OUT IN SIMILAR FASHION TO LAST TWO
SYS/S...UP THROUGH THE NRN LAKES MON AFTN W/TRAILING SFC TROUGH
STALLING OUT AGAIN DOWN NEAR THE OH RVR ON TUE. SYNOPTIC PATTN
REMAINS PERSISTENT W/A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOCKED
IN ACRS THE SRN LAKES/OH VALLEY COUNTERED BY POOR MID LVL LAPSE
RATES AND GENERALLY POOR PREFNTL BASED FORCING AS LARGER SCALE HGT
FALLS SHIFT WELL NW OF AREA. THUS BELIEVE POPS ON MON ARE OVERDONE
ESP IN LIGHT OF NEW 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON PRIOR TWO
GENERALLY MISHANDLED SYSTEMS HAVE CUT THINGS BACK ESP SE THIRD.
RENEWED DEEP MIXING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION SHLD YIELD CLOSE
TO GOING FCST MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS LIES WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT.

SFC COLD FRONT FROM ATTENDANT NRN ONTARIO SFC CYCLONE PROGGED TO BE
JUST WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ONGOING CONVECTION LIKELY AFTER
00Z ACROSS THE AREA...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES E/SE THROUGH THE
AREA. POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT AS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC DY2 OUTLOOK INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...GIVEN 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR...MAY BE IN THE LINEAR FROM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AT THIS
POINT...SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER 00Z WILL BE CONTINGENT ON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...DIURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD YIELD A WANING
SEVERE THREAT HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AFTER 03Z. AS SFC
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND ORIENT WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS BROAD NORTH CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...PWAT
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...WARM CLOUD LAYER GREATER THAN
11KFT...MODEST MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG W/ LONG AND
SKINNY CAPE SOUNDING PROFILE...SHOULD YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILE ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...SMALL SPEED
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB...ALONG WITH REGION UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES UPPER JET...SHOULD ALLOW THE
FOCUS OF TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS COULD BE ENHANCED IF LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER FOCUS OF THE JET WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONTEMPLATED ADDING HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION INTO
FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTIES WILL
THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL PRECLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME...AS FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IF 00Z-06Z CONVECTION REINFORCES A
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE PRECIPITATION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AS UPPER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS AND SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL AS NORTHERN TIER SHORTWAVE/ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE
PUSHES A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS PROVIDED BY ALLBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PESKY STRATUS FINALLY BREAKING UP EARLY THIS AFTN W/RECENT UPTICK
IN LL MIXING AND XPC THIS TREND WILL CONT THROUGH LT AFTN. AN
ISOLD SHRA INBTWN THE TERMINALS REMAINS PSBL YET THIS AFTN WITHIN
WEAK SFC CONFLUENCE BUT TAF MENTION OMITTED FROM THE TERMINALS FOR
18Z ISSUANCE. PRIMARY PROB LIES W/LIKELY RENEWED STRATUS/FOG
REDVLPMNT OVERNIGHT W/PERSISTENT SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE. PER
GENERALLY WK GRADIENT FLW AND AT LEAST EARLY CLRG MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AFT MIDNIGHT LIKELY YET BELIEVE MORE SIG ISSUE WILL
BE IFR CIGS DVLPMNT AS STRATUS REFORMS. REGARDLESS THIS WILL BURN
OFF/MIX OUT MON MORNING AS LLJ FLW RAMPS SIGLY AHD OF SW TROUGH
EJECTING THROUGH THE PLAINS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...NG
AVIATION...T


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 311755
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEAK TRAILING SFC TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS FROM POTENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SINK SLOWLY SE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THIS WEAK
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE/BUILDING INSTABILITY (850 MB DEWPOINTS TO 13-14C AND PWATS
1.7-1.8 INCHES)...AND WEAK DEFORMATION TIED TO AN APPROACHING MID MS
VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. PRONOUNCED MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN WAKE OF
THE NRN LAKES WAVE SHOULD KEEP NORTHWEST ZONES DRY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY TRENDING PARTLY CLOUDY. ANTICIPATE STUBBORN
BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ELSEWHERE...WITH MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER, DECAYING PRES GRADIENT NEAR SFC TROUGH, AND SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
INTO NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORKING EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES SHOULD ENSURE A DRY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF NONZERO CHC FOR AN
ISO SHOWER EARLY EVENING EASTERN HALF. OTHERWISE...PATTERN FAVORS
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
BL UNDER SUBSIDENCE/NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS ON MONDAY HOLIDAY. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME...ENTERING UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE ANY ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY TO DECAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES IN AM HOURS...AND PROVIDED SOME GREATER
TIME/SPACE DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO POP/WX...WITH EARLIEST
POTENTIAL/LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION NOT UNTIL
MIDDAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING THROUGH WARM
SECTOR TO YIELD MODERATE 2500-3500 J/KG SBCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA. SYNCHRONICITY OF MAX DESTABILIZATION WITH
ROBUST 50-60KT 7-6H JET SEGMENT PUSHING EWD THROUGH NORTHERN IL/SRN
WI INTO NWRN CWA LENDS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SEVERE EVENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON ORDER OF 35-40 KTS WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING COULD LEND SOME PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLULAR
ORGANIZATION WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREAT.....WITH NOTABLE
600-850 J/KG PER NAM IN HAIL GROWTH REGION...DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH
WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 13-13.5 KFT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WIND
CONCERN TIED TO LINEAR/FRONTAL FOCUSED CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF FRONTAL WAVE FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD ECNTL MO/CNTL IL. CWA COLLOCATED WITH DIVERGENT
QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT RAMPING TO 120 KTS FROM CNTL
LAKE MI TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. HIGHEST PRECIP EFFICIENCY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA...THOUGH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE
DAY2/EARLY DAY 3 MESOSCALE DETAILS PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
GENERALIZED MENTION IN HWO ATTM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY LIE
SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY WITH SLOW SCOUR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TUESDAY WARRANTS LINGERING MENTION ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER MIDWEEK WITH
MODERATION THEREAFTER. FAVOR DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANY WARM
FRONTAL FOCUS WELL S-W OF CWA. SLOWED MOISTURE RETURN SLIGHTLY OVER
EAGER CONSENSUS BLEND WITH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THU ACROSS
CWA. THEREAFTER CIRCUITOUS GOMEX FEED AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING ESEWD FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES...THEN STALLING
E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...HAVE LOW CHC/LONG DURATION TSRA
MENTION THU NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PESKY STRATUS FINALLY BREAKING UP EARLY THIS AFTN W/RECENT UPTICK
IN LL MIXING AND XPC THIS TREND WILL CONT THROUGH LT AFTN. AN
ISOLD SHRA INBTWN THE TERMINALS REMAINS PSBL YET THIS AFTN WITHIN
WEAK SFC CONFLUENCE BUT TAF MENTION OMITTED FROM THE TERMINALS FOR
18Z ISSUANCE. PRIMARY PROB LIES W/LIKELY RENEWED STRATUS/FOG
REDVLPMNT OVERNIGHT W/PERSISTENT SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE. PER
GENERALLY WK GRADIENT FLW AND AT LEAST EARLY CLRG MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AFT MIDNIGHT LIKELY YET BELIEVE MORE SIG ISSUE WILL
BE IFR CIGS DVLPMNT AS STRATUS REFORMS. REGARDLESS THIS WILL BURN
OFF/MIX OUT MON MORNING AS LLJ FLW RAMPS SIGLY AHD OF SW TROUGH
EJECTING THROUGH THE PLAINS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 311755
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEAK TRAILING SFC TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS FROM POTENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SINK SLOWLY SE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THIS WEAK
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE/BUILDING INSTABILITY (850 MB DEWPOINTS TO 13-14C AND PWATS
1.7-1.8 INCHES)...AND WEAK DEFORMATION TIED TO AN APPROACHING MID MS
VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. PRONOUNCED MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN WAKE OF
THE NRN LAKES WAVE SHOULD KEEP NORTHWEST ZONES DRY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY TRENDING PARTLY CLOUDY. ANTICIPATE STUBBORN
BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ELSEWHERE...WITH MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER, DECAYING PRES GRADIENT NEAR SFC TROUGH, AND SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
INTO NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORKING EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES SHOULD ENSURE A DRY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF NONZERO CHC FOR AN
ISO SHOWER EARLY EVENING EASTERN HALF. OTHERWISE...PATTERN FAVORS
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
BL UNDER SUBSIDENCE/NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS ON MONDAY HOLIDAY. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME...ENTERING UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE ANY ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY TO DECAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES IN AM HOURS...AND PROVIDED SOME GREATER
TIME/SPACE DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO POP/WX...WITH EARLIEST
POTENTIAL/LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION NOT UNTIL
MIDDAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING THROUGH WARM
SECTOR TO YIELD MODERATE 2500-3500 J/KG SBCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA. SYNCHRONICITY OF MAX DESTABILIZATION WITH
ROBUST 50-60KT 7-6H JET SEGMENT PUSHING EWD THROUGH NORTHERN IL/SRN
WI INTO NWRN CWA LENDS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SEVERE EVENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON ORDER OF 35-40 KTS WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING COULD LEND SOME PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLULAR
ORGANIZATION WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREAT.....WITH NOTABLE
600-850 J/KG PER NAM IN HAIL GROWTH REGION...DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH
WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 13-13.5 KFT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WIND
CONCERN TIED TO LINEAR/FRONTAL FOCUSED CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF FRONTAL WAVE FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD ECNTL MO/CNTL IL. CWA COLLOCATED WITH DIVERGENT
QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT RAMPING TO 120 KTS FROM CNTL
LAKE MI TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. HIGHEST PRECIP EFFICIENCY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA...THOUGH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE
DAY2/EARLY DAY 3 MESOSCALE DETAILS PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
GENERALIZED MENTION IN HWO ATTM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY LIE
SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY WITH SLOW SCOUR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TUESDAY WARRANTS LINGERING MENTION ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER MIDWEEK WITH
MODERATION THEREAFTER. FAVOR DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANY WARM
FRONTAL FOCUS WELL S-W OF CWA. SLOWED MOISTURE RETURN SLIGHTLY OVER
EAGER CONSENSUS BLEND WITH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THU ACROSS
CWA. THEREAFTER CIRCUITOUS GOMEX FEED AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING ESEWD FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES...THEN STALLING
E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...HAVE LOW CHC/LONG DURATION TSRA
MENTION THU NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PESKY STRATUS FINALLY BREAKING UP EARLY THIS AFTN W/RECENT UPTICK
IN LL MIXING AND XPC THIS TREND WILL CONT THROUGH LT AFTN. AN
ISOLD SHRA INBTWN THE TERMINALS REMAINS PSBL YET THIS AFTN WITHIN
WEAK SFC CONFLUENCE BUT TAF MENTION OMITTED FROM THE TERMINALS FOR
18Z ISSUANCE. PRIMARY PROB LIES W/LIKELY RENEWED STRATUS/FOG
REDVLPMNT OVERNIGHT W/PERSISTENT SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE. PER
GENERALLY WK GRADIENT FLW AND AT LEAST EARLY CLRG MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AFT MIDNIGHT LIKELY YET BELIEVE MORE SIG ISSUE WILL
BE IFR CIGS DVLPMNT AS STRATUS REFORMS. REGARDLESS THIS WILL BURN
OFF/MIX OUT MON MORNING AS LLJ FLW RAMPS SIGLY AHD OF SW TROUGH
EJECTING THROUGH THE PLAINS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 311452
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1052 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEAK TRAILING SFC TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS FROM POTENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SINK SLOWLY SE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THIS WEAK
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE/BUILDING INSTABILITY (850 MB DEWPOINTS TO 13-14C AND PWATS
1.7-1.8 INCHES)...AND WEAK DEFORMATION TIED TO AN APPROACHING MID MS
VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. PRONOUNCED MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN WAKE OF
THE NRN LAKES WAVE SHOULD KEEP NORTHWEST ZONES DRY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY TRENDING PARTLY CLOUDY. ANTICIPATE STUBBORN
BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ELSEWHERE...WITH MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER, DECAYING PRES GRADIENT NEAR SFC TROUGH, AND SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
INTO NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORKING EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES SHOULD ENSURE A DRY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF NONZERO CHC FOR AN
ISO SHOWER EARLY EVENING EASTERN HALF. OTHERWISE...PATTERN FAVORS
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
BL UNDER SUBSIDENCE/NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS ON MONDAY HOLIDAY. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME...ENTERING UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE ANY ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY TO DECAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES IN AM HOURS...AND PROVIDED SOME GREATER
TIME/SPACE DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO POP/WX...WITH EARLIEST
POTENTIAL/LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION NOT UNTIL
MIDDAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING THROUGH WARM
SECTOR TO YIELD MODERATE 2500-3500 J/KG SBCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA. SYNCHRONICITY OF MAX DESTABILIZATION WITH
ROBUST 50-60KT 7-6H JET SEGMENT PUSHING EWD THROUGH NORTHERN IL/SRN
WI INTO NWRN CWA LENDS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SEVERE EVENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON ORDER OF 35-40 KTS WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING COULD LEND SOME PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLULAR
ORGANIZATION WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREAT.....WITH NOTABLE
600-850 J/KG PER NAM IN HAIL GROWTH REGION...DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH
WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 13-13.5 KFT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WIND
CONCERN TIED TO LINEAR/FRONTAL FOCUSED CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF FRONTAL WAVE FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD ECNTL MO/CNTL IL. CWA COLLOCATED WITH DIVERGENT
QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT RAMPING TO 120 KTS FROM CNTL
LAKE MI TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. HIGHEST PRECIP EFFICIENCY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA...THOUGH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE
DAY2/EARLY DAY 3 MESOSCALE DETAILS PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
GENERALIZED MENTION IN HWO ATTM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY LIE
SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY WITH SLOW SCOUR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TUESDAY WARRANTS LINGERING MENTION ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER MIDWEEK WITH
MODERATION THEREAFTER. FAVOR DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANY WARM
FRONTAL FOCUS WELL S-W OF CWA. SLOWED MOISTURE RETURN SLIGHTLY OVER
EAGER CONSENSUS BLEND WITH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THU ACROSS
CWA. THEREAFTER CIRCUITOUS GOMEX FEED AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING ESEWD FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES...THEN STALLING
E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...HAVE LOW CHC/LONG DURATION TSRA
MENTION THU NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF OF A SFC TROUGH
WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER INTO MAINLY IFR-LOW MVFR THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS ALONG THIS SFC TROUGH SHOULD SINK SOUTH OF KFWA BY TAF
ISSUANCE LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 311452
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1052 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEAK TRAILING SFC TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS FROM POTENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SINK SLOWLY SE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THIS WEAK
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE/BUILDING INSTABILITY (850 MB DEWPOINTS TO 13-14C AND PWATS
1.7-1.8 INCHES)...AND WEAK DEFORMATION TIED TO AN APPROACHING MID MS
VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. PRONOUNCED MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN WAKE OF
THE NRN LAKES WAVE SHOULD KEEP NORTHWEST ZONES DRY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY TRENDING PARTLY CLOUDY. ANTICIPATE STUBBORN
BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ELSEWHERE...WITH MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER, DECAYING PRES GRADIENT NEAR SFC TROUGH, AND SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
INTO NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORKING EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES SHOULD ENSURE A DRY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF NONZERO CHC FOR AN
ISO SHOWER EARLY EVENING EASTERN HALF. OTHERWISE...PATTERN FAVORS
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
BL UNDER SUBSIDENCE/NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS ON MONDAY HOLIDAY. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME...ENTERING UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE ANY ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY TO DECAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES IN AM HOURS...AND PROVIDED SOME GREATER
TIME/SPACE DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO POP/WX...WITH EARLIEST
POTENTIAL/LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION NOT UNTIL
MIDDAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING THROUGH WARM
SECTOR TO YIELD MODERATE 2500-3500 J/KG SBCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA. SYNCHRONICITY OF MAX DESTABILIZATION WITH
ROBUST 50-60KT 7-6H JET SEGMENT PUSHING EWD THROUGH NORTHERN IL/SRN
WI INTO NWRN CWA LENDS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SEVERE EVENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON ORDER OF 35-40 KTS WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING COULD LEND SOME PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLULAR
ORGANIZATION WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREAT.....WITH NOTABLE
600-850 J/KG PER NAM IN HAIL GROWTH REGION...DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH
WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 13-13.5 KFT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WIND
CONCERN TIED TO LINEAR/FRONTAL FOCUSED CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF FRONTAL WAVE FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD ECNTL MO/CNTL IL. CWA COLLOCATED WITH DIVERGENT
QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT RAMPING TO 120 KTS FROM CNTL
LAKE MI TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. HIGHEST PRECIP EFFICIENCY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA...THOUGH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE
DAY2/EARLY DAY 3 MESOSCALE DETAILS PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
GENERALIZED MENTION IN HWO ATTM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY LIE
SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY WITH SLOW SCOUR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TUESDAY WARRANTS LINGERING MENTION ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER MIDWEEK WITH
MODERATION THEREAFTER. FAVOR DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANY WARM
FRONTAL FOCUS WELL S-W OF CWA. SLOWED MOISTURE RETURN SLIGHTLY OVER
EAGER CONSENSUS BLEND WITH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THU ACROSS
CWA. THEREAFTER CIRCUITOUS GOMEX FEED AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING ESEWD FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES...THEN STALLING
E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...HAVE LOW CHC/LONG DURATION TSRA
MENTION THU NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF OF A SFC TROUGH
WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER INTO MAINLY IFR-LOW MVFR THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS ALONG THIS SFC TROUGH SHOULD SINK SOUTH OF KFWA BY TAF
ISSUANCE LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 310937
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
537 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 24 IN INDIANA AND OHIO THIS MORNING
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TODAY AND THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEAK TRAILING SFC TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS FROM POTENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SINK SLOWLY SE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THIS WEAK
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE/BUILDING INSTABILITY (850 MB DEWPOINTS TO 13-14C AND PWATS
1.7-1.8 INCHES)...AND WEAK DEFORMATION TIED TO AN APPROACHING MID MS
VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. PRONOUNCED MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN WAKE OF
THE NRN LAKES WAVE SHOULD KEEP NORTHWEST ZONES DRY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY TRENDING PARTLY CLOUDY. ANTICIPATE STUBBORN
BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ELSEWHERE...WITH MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER, DECAYING PRES GRADIENT NEAR SFC TROUGH, AND SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
INTO NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORKING EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES SHOULD ENSURE A DRY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF NONZERO CHC FOR AN
ISO SHOWER EARLY EVENING EASTERN HALF. OTHERWISE...PATTERN FAVORS
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
BL UNDER SUBSIDENCE/NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS ON MONDAY HOLIDAY. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME...ENTERING UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE ANY ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY TO DECAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES IN AM HOURS...AND PROVIDED SOME GREATER
TIME/SPACE DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO POP/WX...WITH EARLIEST
POTENTIAL/LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION NOT UNTIL
MIDDAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING THROUGH WARM
SECTOR TO YIELD MODERATE 2500-3500 J/KG SBCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA. SYNCHRONICITY OF MAX DESTABILIZATION WITH
ROBUST 50-60KT 7-6H JET SEGMENT PUSHING EWD THROUGH NORTHERN IL/SRN
WI INTO NWRN CWA LENDS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SEVERE EVENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON ORDER OF 35-40 KTS WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING COULD LEND SOME PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLULAR
ORGANIZATION WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREAT.....WITH NOTABLE
600-850 J/KG PER NAM IN HAIL GROWTH REGION...DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH
WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 13-13.5 KFT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WIND
CONCERN TIED TO LINEAR/FRONTAL FOCUSED CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF FRONTAL WAVE FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD ECNTL MO/CNTL IL. CWA COLLOCATED WITH DIVERGENT
QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT RAMPING TO 120 KTS FROM CNTL
LAKE MI TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. HIGHEST PRECIP EFFICIENCY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA...THOUGH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE
DAY2/EARLY DAY 3 MESOSCALE DETAILS PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
GENERALIZED MENTION IN HWO ATTM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY LIE
SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY WITH SLOW SCOUR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TUESDAY WARRANTS LINGERING MENTION ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER MIDWEEK WITH
MODERATION THEREAFTER. FAVOR DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANY WARM
FRONTAL FOCUS WELL S-W OF CWA. SLOWED MOISTURE RETURN SLIGHTLY OVER
EAGER CONSENSUS BLEND WITH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THU ACROSS
CWA. THEREAFTER CIRCUITOUS GOMEX FEED AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING ESEWD FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES...THEN STALLING
E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...HAVE LOW CHC/LONG DURATION TSRA
MENTION THU NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF OF A SFC TROUGH
WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER INTO MAINLY IFR-LOW MVFR THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS ALONG THIS SFC TROUGH SHOULD SINK SOUTH OF KFWA BY TAF
ISSUANCE LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 310937
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
537 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 24 IN INDIANA AND OHIO THIS MORNING
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TODAY AND THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEAK TRAILING SFC TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS FROM POTENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SINK SLOWLY SE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THIS WEAK
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE/BUILDING INSTABILITY (850 MB DEWPOINTS TO 13-14C AND PWATS
1.7-1.8 INCHES)...AND WEAK DEFORMATION TIED TO AN APPROACHING MID MS
VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. PRONOUNCED MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN WAKE OF
THE NRN LAKES WAVE SHOULD KEEP NORTHWEST ZONES DRY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY TRENDING PARTLY CLOUDY. ANTICIPATE STUBBORN
BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ELSEWHERE...WITH MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER, DECAYING PRES GRADIENT NEAR SFC TROUGH, AND SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
INTO NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORKING EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES SHOULD ENSURE A DRY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF NONZERO CHC FOR AN
ISO SHOWER EARLY EVENING EASTERN HALF. OTHERWISE...PATTERN FAVORS
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
BL UNDER SUBSIDENCE/NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS ON MONDAY HOLIDAY. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME...ENTERING UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE ANY ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY TO DECAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES IN AM HOURS...AND PROVIDED SOME GREATER
TIME/SPACE DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO POP/WX...WITH EARLIEST
POTENTIAL/LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION NOT UNTIL
MIDDAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING THROUGH WARM
SECTOR TO YIELD MODERATE 2500-3500 J/KG SBCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA. SYNCHRONICITY OF MAX DESTABILIZATION WITH
ROBUST 50-60KT 7-6H JET SEGMENT PUSHING EWD THROUGH NORTHERN IL/SRN
WI INTO NWRN CWA LENDS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SEVERE EVENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON ORDER OF 35-40 KTS WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING COULD LEND SOME PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLULAR
ORGANIZATION WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREAT.....WITH NOTABLE
600-850 J/KG PER NAM IN HAIL GROWTH REGION...DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH
WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 13-13.5 KFT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WIND
CONCERN TIED TO LINEAR/FRONTAL FOCUSED CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF FRONTAL WAVE FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD ECNTL MO/CNTL IL. CWA COLLOCATED WITH DIVERGENT
QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT RAMPING TO 120 KTS FROM CNTL
LAKE MI TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. HIGHEST PRECIP EFFICIENCY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA...THOUGH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE
DAY2/EARLY DAY 3 MESOSCALE DETAILS PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
GENERALIZED MENTION IN HWO ATTM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY LIE
SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY WITH SLOW SCOUR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TUESDAY WARRANTS LINGERING MENTION ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER MIDWEEK WITH
MODERATION THEREAFTER. FAVOR DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANY WARM
FRONTAL FOCUS WELL S-W OF CWA. SLOWED MOISTURE RETURN SLIGHTLY OVER
EAGER CONSENSUS BLEND WITH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THU ACROSS
CWA. THEREAFTER CIRCUITOUS GOMEX FEED AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING ESEWD FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES...THEN STALLING
E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...HAVE LOW CHC/LONG DURATION TSRA
MENTION THU NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF OF A SFC TROUGH
WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER INTO MAINLY IFR-LOW MVFR THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS ALONG THIS SFC TROUGH SHOULD SINK SOUTH OF KFWA BY TAF
ISSUANCE LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 310850
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
449 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 24 IN INDIANA AND OHIO THIS MORNING
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TODAY AND THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEAK TRAILING SFC TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS FROM POTENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SINK SLOWLY SE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THIS WEAK
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE/BUILDING INSTABILITY (850 MB DEWPOINTS TO 13-14C AND PWATS
1.7-1.8 INCHES)...AND WEAK DEFORMATION TIED TO AN APPROACHING MID MS
VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. PRONOUNCED MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN WAKE OF
THE NRN LAKES WAVE SHOULD KEEP NORTHWEST ZONES DRY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY TRENDING PARTLY CLOUDY. ANTICIPATE STUBBORN
BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ELSEWHERE...WITH MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER, DECAYING PRES GRADIENT NEAR SFC TROUGH, AND SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
INTO NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORKING EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES SHOULD ENSURE A DRY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF NONZERO CHC FOR AN
ISO SHOWER EARLY EVENING EASTERN HALF. OTHERWISE...PATTERN FAVORS
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
BL UNDER SUBSIDENCE/NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS ON MONDAY HOLIDAY. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME...ENTERING UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE ANY ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY TO DECAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES IN AM HOURS...AND PROVIDED SOME GREATER
TIME/SPACE DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO POP/WX...WITH EARLIEST
POTENTIAL/LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION NOT UNTIL
MIDDAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING THROUGH WARM
SECTOR TO YIELD MODERATE 2500-3500 J/KG SBCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA. SYNCHRONICITY OF MAX DESTABILIZATION WITH
ROBUST 50-60KT 7-6H JET SEGMENT PUSHING EWD THROUGH NORTHERN IL/SRN
WI INTO NWRN CWA LENDS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SEVERE EVENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON ORDER OF 35-40 KTS WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING COULD LEND SOME PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLULAR
ORGANIZATION WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREAT.....WITH NOTABLE
600-850 J/KG PER NAM IN HAIL GROWTH REGION...DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH
WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 13-13.5 KFT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WIND
CONCERN TIED TO LINEAR/FRONTAL FOCUSED CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF FRONTAL WAVE FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD ECNTL MO/CNTL IL. CWA COLLOCATED WITH DIVERGENT
QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT RAMPING TO 120 KTS FROM CNTL
LAKE MI TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. HIGHEST PRECIP EFFICIENCY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA...THOUGH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE
DAY2/EARLY DAY 3 MESOSCALE DETAILS PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
GENERALIZED MENTION IN HWO ATTM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY LIE
SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY WITH SLOW SCOUR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TUESDAY WARRANTS LINGERING MENTION ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER MIDWEEK WITH
MODERATION THEREAFTER. FAVOR DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANY WARM
FRONTAL FOCUS WELL S-W OF CWA. SLOWED MOISTURE RETURN SLIGHTLY OVER
EAGER CONSENSUS BLEND WITH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THU ACROSS
CWA. THEREAFTER CIRCUITOUS GOMEX FEED AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING ESEWD FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES...THEN STALLING
E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...HAVE LOW CHC/LONG DURATION TSRA
MENTION THU NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF OF A SFC
TROUGH WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER INTO MAINLY IFR-LOW MVFR THIS
MORNING. BROKEN/POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THIS SFC
TROUGH WILL SAG SLOWLY SSE INTO THE KFWA AREA THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. OPTED FOR A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY/WEAK
FORCING. PCPN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF KSBN WITH POTENTIAL FOR
FOG/LIFR CONDITIONS TO FILL IN TOWARD DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 310846
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
446 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 24 IN INDIANA AND OHIO THIS MORNING
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWS 80
TODAY AND THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEAK TRAILING SFC TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS FROM POTENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SINK SLOWLY SE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THIS WEAK
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE/BUILDING INSTABILITY (850 MB DEWPOINTS TO 13-14C AND PWATS
1.7-1.8 INCHES)...AND WEAK DEFORMATION TIED TO AN APPROACHING MID MS
VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. PRONOUNCED MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN WAKE OF
THE NRN LAKES WAVE SHOULD KEEP NORTHWEST ZONES DRY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY TRENDING PARTLY CLOUDY. ANTICIPATE STUBBORN
BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ELSEWHERE...WITH MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER, DECAYING PRES GRADIENT NEAR SFC TROUGH, AND SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
INTO NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORKING EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES SHOULD ENSURE A DRY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF NONZERO CHC FOR AN
ISO SHOWER EARLY EVENING EASTERN HALF. OTHERWISE...PATTERN FAVORS
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
BL UNDER SUBSIDENCE/NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS ON MONDAY HOLIDAY. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME...ENTERING UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE ANY ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY TO DECAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES IN AM HOURS...AND PROVIDED SOME GREATER
TIME/SPACE DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO POP/WX...WITH EARLIEST
POTENTIAL/LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION NOT UNTIL
MIDDAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING THROUGH WARM
SECTOR TO YIELD MODERATE 2500-3500 J/KG SBCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA. SYNCHRONICITY OF MAX DESTABILIZATION WITH
ROBUST 50-60KT 7-6H JET SEGMENT PUSHING EWD THROUGH NORTHERN IL/SRN
WI INTO NWRN CWA LENDS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SEVERE EVENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON ORDER OF 35-40 KTS WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING COULD LEND SOME PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLULAR
ORGANIZATION WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREAT.....WITH NOTABLE
600-850 J/KG PER NAM IN HAIL GROWTH REGION...DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH
WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 13-13.5 KFT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WIND
CONCERN TIED TO LINEAR/FRONTAL FOCUSED CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF FRONTAL WAVE FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD ECNTL MO/CNTL IL. CWA COLLOCATED WITH DIVERGENT
QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT RAMPING TO 120 KTS FROM CNTL
LAKE MI TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. HIGHEST PRECIP EFFICIENCY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA...THOUGH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE
DAY2/EARLY DAY 3 MESOSCALE DETAILS PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
GENERALIZED MENTION IN HWO ATTM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY LIE
SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY WITH SLOW SCOUR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TUESDAY WARRANTS LINGERING MENTION ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER MIDWEEK WITH
MODERATION THEREAFTER. FAVOR DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANY WARM
FRONTAL FOCUS WELL S-W OF CWA. SLOWED MOISTURE RETURN SLIGHTLY OVER
EAGER CONSENSUS BLEND WITH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THU ACROSS
CWA. THEREAFTER CIRCUITOUS GOMEX FEED AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING ESEWD FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES...THEN STALLING
E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...HAVE LOW CHC/LONG DURATION TSRA
MENTION THU NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF OF A SFC
TROUGH WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER INTO MAINLY IFR-LOW MVFR THIS
MORNING. BROKEN/POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THIS SFC
TROUGH WILL SAG SLOWLY SSE INTO THE KFWA AREA THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. OPTED FOR A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY/WEAK
FORCING. PCPN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF KSBN WITH POTENTIAL FOR
FOG/LIFR CONDITIONS TO FILL IN TOWARD DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 310846
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
446 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 24 IN INDIANA AND OHIO THIS MORNING
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWS 80
TODAY AND THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEAK TRAILING SFC TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS FROM POTENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SINK SLOWLY SE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THIS WEAK
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE/BUILDING INSTABILITY (850 MB DEWPOINTS TO 13-14C AND PWATS
1.7-1.8 INCHES)...AND WEAK DEFORMATION TIED TO AN APPROACHING MID MS
VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. PRONOUNCED MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN WAKE OF
THE NRN LAKES WAVE SHOULD KEEP NORTHWEST ZONES DRY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY TRENDING PARTLY CLOUDY. ANTICIPATE STUBBORN
BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ELSEWHERE...WITH MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER, DECAYING PRES GRADIENT NEAR SFC TROUGH, AND SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
INTO NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORKING EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES SHOULD ENSURE A DRY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF NONZERO CHC FOR AN
ISO SHOWER EARLY EVENING EASTERN HALF. OTHERWISE...PATTERN FAVORS
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
BL UNDER SUBSIDENCE/NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS ON MONDAY HOLIDAY. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME...ENTERING UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE ANY ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY TO DECAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES IN AM HOURS...AND PROVIDED SOME GREATER
TIME/SPACE DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO POP/WX...WITH EARLIEST
POTENTIAL/LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION NOT UNTIL
MIDDAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING THROUGH WARM
SECTOR TO YIELD MODERATE 2500-3500 J/KG SBCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA. SYNCHRONICITY OF MAX DESTABILIZATION WITH
ROBUST 50-60KT 7-6H JET SEGMENT PUSHING EWD THROUGH NORTHERN IL/SRN
WI INTO NWRN CWA LENDS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SEVERE EVENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON ORDER OF 35-40 KTS WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING COULD LEND SOME PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLULAR
ORGANIZATION WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREAT.....WITH NOTABLE
600-850 J/KG PER NAM IN HAIL GROWTH REGION...DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH
WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 13-13.5 KFT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WIND
CONCERN TIED TO LINEAR/FRONTAL FOCUSED CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF FRONTAL WAVE FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD ECNTL MO/CNTL IL. CWA COLLOCATED WITH DIVERGENT
QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT RAMPING TO 120 KTS FROM CNTL
LAKE MI TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. HIGHEST PRECIP EFFICIENCY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA...THOUGH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE
DAY2/EARLY DAY 3 MESOSCALE DETAILS PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
GENERALIZED MENTION IN HWO ATTM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY LIE
SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY WITH SLOW SCOUR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TUESDAY WARRANTS LINGERING MENTION ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER MIDWEEK WITH
MODERATION THEREAFTER. FAVOR DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANY WARM
FRONTAL FOCUS WELL S-W OF CWA. SLOWED MOISTURE RETURN SLIGHTLY OVER
EAGER CONSENSUS BLEND WITH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THU ACROSS
CWA. THEREAFTER CIRCUITOUS GOMEX FEED AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING ESEWD FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES...THEN STALLING
E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...HAVE LOW CHC/LONG DURATION TSRA
MENTION THU NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF OF A SFC
TROUGH WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER INTO MAINLY IFR-LOW MVFR THIS
MORNING. BROKEN/POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THIS SFC
TROUGH WILL SAG SLOWLY SSE INTO THE KFWA AREA THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. OPTED FOR A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY/WEAK
FORCING. PCPN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF KSBN WITH POTENTIAL FOR
FOG/LIFR CONDITIONS TO FILL IN TOWARD DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 310451
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1251 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM
THE WEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWS 80 TODAY AND THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS TRIGGERED WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED
EARLIER TODAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO LOWER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROF IN WISCONSIN. FLOW REGIME IS SUCH
THAT THE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN A STRETCHING DEFORMATION
AXIS. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SHOW THE SFC BASED FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS
AXIS...

LAPSE RATES AND WIND PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
LINES AND INDIVIDUAL LINE SEGMENTS. ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING DOES NOT PERSIST MUCH PAST 04Z.

LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN MORE ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE THERE IS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
BETWEEN THE MODELS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE AND WIND PROFILES ARE
VERY SIMILAR AND DO SUPPORT PERSISTENT/LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TAP AND A LONG FETCH OF
ISENTROPIC ASSENT...SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DECREASES AND THE TROF/DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER MORE ROBUST SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF LONG TERM IS ON PRECIP/SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY. TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION BUT STRONG PUSH OF HEIGHT FALLS AND CVA WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SURFACE CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
FURTHER AIDED BY GOOD RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. DEEP AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
EASILY ADVECT HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS BACK INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY.
AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH THE 2-3 KJ/KG RANGE AS
HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID...OR PERHAPS UPPER...80S WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. VERY DYNAMIC WAVE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL TO
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. LATEST 12Z NWP SUITE KEEPS SURFACE BOUNDARY
WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. ISO/SCT CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WEAK PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST NAM12 BUT EXPECT BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
BETTER WIND PROFILES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30+ KNOTS...WILL ALSO BE
TIED CLOSER TO THE FRONT. DESPITE MORE THAN ADEQUATE
SHEAR...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-7 C/KM ARE ONLY WEAKLY SUPPORTIVE
OF A NOCTURNAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY MONDAY NIGHT....PLENTY
FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LESS CLEAR.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS...AND POTENTIAL
ROTATION...WITH ANY SUBSTANTIVE UPDRAFTS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP BUT
LATE ARRIVAL OF FRONT MAY LIMIT CHANCES FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT. PUSHED BACK TIMING OF POPS BUT ALSO INCREASED THEM A
BIT BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS. COULD ALSO BE A THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY MORNING
IF SURFACE BOUNDARY IS SLOW ENOUGH TO EXIT THE CWA.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES NEXT
WEEKEND. SCT CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ONCE AGAIN BUT BEST CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TUES AND WED...HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF OF A SFC
TROUGH WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER INTO MAINLY IFR-LOW MVFR THIS
MORNING. BROKEN/POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THIS SFC
TROUGH WILL SAG SLOWLY SSE INTO THE KFWA AREA THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. OPTED FOR A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY/WEAK
FORCING. PCPN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF KSBN WITH POTENTIAL FOR
FOG/LIFR CONDITIONS TO FILL IN TOWARD DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 310451
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1251 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM
THE WEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWS 80 TODAY AND THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS TRIGGERED WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED
EARLIER TODAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO LOWER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROF IN WISCONSIN. FLOW REGIME IS SUCH
THAT THE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN A STRETCHING DEFORMATION
AXIS. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SHOW THE SFC BASED FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS
AXIS...

LAPSE RATES AND WIND PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
LINES AND INDIVIDUAL LINE SEGMENTS. ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING DOES NOT PERSIST MUCH PAST 04Z.

LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN MORE ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE THERE IS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
BETWEEN THE MODELS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE AND WIND PROFILES ARE
VERY SIMILAR AND DO SUPPORT PERSISTENT/LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TAP AND A LONG FETCH OF
ISENTROPIC ASSENT...SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DECREASES AND THE TROF/DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER MORE ROBUST SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF LONG TERM IS ON PRECIP/SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY. TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION BUT STRONG PUSH OF HEIGHT FALLS AND CVA WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SURFACE CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
FURTHER AIDED BY GOOD RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. DEEP AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
EASILY ADVECT HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS BACK INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY.
AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH THE 2-3 KJ/KG RANGE AS
HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID...OR PERHAPS UPPER...80S WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. VERY DYNAMIC WAVE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL TO
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. LATEST 12Z NWP SUITE KEEPS SURFACE BOUNDARY
WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. ISO/SCT CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WEAK PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST NAM12 BUT EXPECT BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
BETTER WIND PROFILES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30+ KNOTS...WILL ALSO BE
TIED CLOSER TO THE FRONT. DESPITE MORE THAN ADEQUATE
SHEAR...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-7 C/KM ARE ONLY WEAKLY SUPPORTIVE
OF A NOCTURNAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY MONDAY NIGHT....PLENTY
FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LESS CLEAR.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS...AND POTENTIAL
ROTATION...WITH ANY SUBSTANTIVE UPDRAFTS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP BUT
LATE ARRIVAL OF FRONT MAY LIMIT CHANCES FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT. PUSHED BACK TIMING OF POPS BUT ALSO INCREASED THEM A
BIT BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS. COULD ALSO BE A THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY MORNING
IF SURFACE BOUNDARY IS SLOW ENOUGH TO EXIT THE CWA.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES NEXT
WEEKEND. SCT CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ONCE AGAIN BUT BEST CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TUES AND WED...HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF OF A SFC
TROUGH WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER INTO MAINLY IFR-LOW MVFR THIS
MORNING. BROKEN/POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THIS SFC
TROUGH WILL SAG SLOWLY SSE INTO THE KFWA AREA THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. OPTED FOR A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY/WEAK
FORCING. PCPN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF KSBN WITH POTENTIAL FOR
FOG/LIFR CONDITIONS TO FILL IN TOWARD DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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