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000
FXUS63 KIWX 202321
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
721 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY FORECAST TO
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR LINE OF SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER
EXITING OUR OH COUNTIES BY 20/21Z...AND A 90KT UPPER JET DROPPING
SE THROUGH WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER MID LEVEL
TROUGH...WILL AID IN TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WITH A CLOSED 5H LOW
EVENTUALLY EMERGING OVER WESTERN PA BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TRAILING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW/SHEARED VORTICITY WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH BECOMING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPS AND LIKELY ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU
CLOUD DECK TO TAKE RESIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. VEERING
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LAKE-8H TEMP DIFFERENTIALS PUSHING THE MID
TEENS (LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS BRIEFLY TO 6-7 KFT) WARRANT
LOW-MID CHC POPS FOR SCT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TONIGHT-TUESDAY
MORNING. MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS MAINLY OH/SC LOWER MI GIVEN SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL WEAKER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO SHEAR THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AS A CUT
OFF LOW DIGS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND KEEPS THE EASTERN CONUS
UNDER MEAN TROUGHING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK BUT WILL
LIKELY BE A DRY PASSAGE BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR CWA AS THE BETTER
ENERGY REMAINS IN CANADA AND NORTHERLY WINDS FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRIOR
KEEP A DRY CP AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH
SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN REACH INTO THE 70S
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF 14C TO 16C ARE ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ONE TO WATCH IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS ITS ORIGINS CAN BE TRACED BACK TO BOTH SUPER
TYPHOON VONGFONG AND TROPICAL CYCLONE HUDHUD. A HEMISPHERIC WATER
VAPOR LOOP OVER THE PAST DAY SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF HUDHUD PHASING
WITH THE NE PACIFIC LOW WHICH CONTAINS THE REMNANTS OF VONGFONG.

WHILE TYPING THIS DISCUSSION...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS DECIDED TO
COMPLICATE THINGS BY COMING IN WITH A SPLIT FLOW PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. ATTM WILL IGNORE THIS SOLUTION DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED
WESTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL ACTIVITY AND ITS PROPENSITY TO AMPLIFY THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SE FROM LAKE HURON ACROSS THE LWR GRTLKS
TONIGHT WITH RIDGE FROM ONTARIO TO THE NRN PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE
UPR GRTLKS BEHIND IT. EXTENSIVE STRATO CU DECK ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NE WAS COVERING NRN INDIANA AND AREAS UPSTREAM
ATTM. CIGS WERE MAINLY VFR BUT LOWER MVFR DECK APPEARS TO BE
EXPANDING DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN AREA OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE AT KSBN OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF TUE... WITH
SCT LAKE EFFECT SHRA IMPACTING THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING BEFORE
LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM NW TO NORTH. CAA SHOULD CAUSE VFR
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AT KFWA OVERNIGHT AND THEN PERSIST
UNTIL LATE TUE AFTN WHEN DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
APCHG RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW STRATO CU DECK TO ERODE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...BENTLEY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 202321
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
721 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY FORECAST TO
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR LINE OF SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER
EXITING OUR OH COUNTIES BY 20/21Z...AND A 90KT UPPER JET DROPPING
SE THROUGH WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER MID LEVEL
TROUGH...WILL AID IN TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WITH A CLOSED 5H LOW
EVENTUALLY EMERGING OVER WESTERN PA BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TRAILING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW/SHEARED VORTICITY WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH BECOMING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPS AND LIKELY ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU
CLOUD DECK TO TAKE RESIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. VEERING
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LAKE-8H TEMP DIFFERENTIALS PUSHING THE MID
TEENS (LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS BRIEFLY TO 6-7 KFT) WARRANT
LOW-MID CHC POPS FOR SCT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TONIGHT-TUESDAY
MORNING. MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS MAINLY OH/SC LOWER MI GIVEN SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL WEAKER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO SHEAR THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AS A CUT
OFF LOW DIGS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND KEEPS THE EASTERN CONUS
UNDER MEAN TROUGHING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK BUT WILL
LIKELY BE A DRY PASSAGE BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR CWA AS THE BETTER
ENERGY REMAINS IN CANADA AND NORTHERLY WINDS FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRIOR
KEEP A DRY CP AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH
SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN REACH INTO THE 70S
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF 14C TO 16C ARE ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ONE TO WATCH IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS ITS ORIGINS CAN BE TRACED BACK TO BOTH SUPER
TYPHOON VONGFONG AND TROPICAL CYCLONE HUDHUD. A HEMISPHERIC WATER
VAPOR LOOP OVER THE PAST DAY SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF HUDHUD PHASING
WITH THE NE PACIFIC LOW WHICH CONTAINS THE REMNANTS OF VONGFONG.

WHILE TYPING THIS DISCUSSION...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS DECIDED TO
COMPLICATE THINGS BY COMING IN WITH A SPLIT FLOW PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. ATTM WILL IGNORE THIS SOLUTION DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED
WESTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL ACTIVITY AND ITS PROPENSITY TO AMPLIFY THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SE FROM LAKE HURON ACROSS THE LWR GRTLKS
TONIGHT WITH RIDGE FROM ONTARIO TO THE NRN PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE
UPR GRTLKS BEHIND IT. EXTENSIVE STRATO CU DECK ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NE WAS COVERING NRN INDIANA AND AREAS UPSTREAM
ATTM. CIGS WERE MAINLY VFR BUT LOWER MVFR DECK APPEARS TO BE
EXPANDING DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN AREA OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE AT KSBN OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF TUE... WITH
SCT LAKE EFFECT SHRA IMPACTING THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING BEFORE
LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM NW TO NORTH. CAA SHOULD CAUSE VFR
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AT KFWA OVERNIGHT AND THEN PERSIST
UNTIL LATE TUE AFTN WHEN DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
APCHG RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW STRATO CU DECK TO ERODE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...BENTLEY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 201935
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
335 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY FORECAST TO
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR LINE OF SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER
EXITING OUR OH COUNTIES BY 20/21Z...AND A 90KT UPPER JET DROPPING
SE THROUGH WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER MID LEVEL
TROUGH...WILL AID IN TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WITH A CLOSED 5H LOW
EVENTUALLY EMERGING OVER WESTERN PA BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TRAILING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW/SHEARED VORTICITY WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH BECOMING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPS AND LIKELY ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU
CLOUD DECK TO TAKE RESIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. VEERING
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LAKE-8H TEMP DIFFERENTIALS PUSHING THE MID
TEENS (LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS BRIEFLY TO 6-7 KFT) WARRANT
LOW-MID CHC POPS FOR SCT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TONIGHT-TUESDAY
MORNING. MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS MAINLY OH/SC LOWER MI GIVEN SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL WEAKER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO SHEAR THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AS A CUT
OFF LOW DIGS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND KEEPS THE EASTERN CONUS
UNDER MEAN TROUGHING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK BUT WILL
LIKELY BE A DRY PASSAGE BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR CWA AS THE BETTER
ENERGY REMAINS IN CANADA AND NORTHERLY WINDS FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRIOR
KEEP A DRY CP AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH
SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN REACH INTO THE 70S
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF 14C TO 16C ARE ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ONE TO WATCH IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS ITS ORIGINS CAN BE TRACED BACK TO BOTH SUPER
TYPHOON VONGFONG AND TROPICAL CYCLONE HUDHUD. A HEMISPHERIC WATER
VAPOR LOOP OVER THE PAST DAY SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF HUDHUD PHASING
WITH THE NE PACIFIC LOW WHICH CONTAINS THE REMNANTS OF VONGFONG.

WHILE TYPING THIS DISCUSSION...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS DECIDED TO
COMPLICATE THINGS BY COMING IN WITH A SPLIT FLOW PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. ATTM WILL IGNORE THIS SOLUTION DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED
WESTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL ACTIVITY AND ITS PROPENSITY TO AMPLIFY THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER WITH POTENT VORT MAX/COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH
EAST OF KFWA BY OR JUST SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE LEAVING MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS IN STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW THEREAFTER. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KSBN WHERE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING WEST
OF THE TERMINAL. VARIABLE MVFR-VFR CIGS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A SOLID
POST-FRONTAL MVFR STRATO CU DECK NEAR 2 KFT BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON-TONIGHT IN LINGERING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WSW WINDS AT
ISSUANCE TO VEER NORTHERLY BY TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...BENTLEY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 201935
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
335 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY FORECAST TO
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR LINE OF SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER
EXITING OUR OH COUNTIES BY 20/21Z...AND A 90KT UPPER JET DROPPING
SE THROUGH WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER MID LEVEL
TROUGH...WILL AID IN TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WITH A CLOSED 5H LOW
EVENTUALLY EMERGING OVER WESTERN PA BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TRAILING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW/SHEARED VORTICITY WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH BECOMING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPS AND LIKELY ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU
CLOUD DECK TO TAKE RESIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. VEERING
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LAKE-8H TEMP DIFFERENTIALS PUSHING THE MID
TEENS (LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS BRIEFLY TO 6-7 KFT) WARRANT
LOW-MID CHC POPS FOR SCT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TONIGHT-TUESDAY
MORNING. MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS MAINLY OH/SC LOWER MI GIVEN SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL WEAKER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO SHEAR THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AS A CUT
OFF LOW DIGS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND KEEPS THE EASTERN CONUS
UNDER MEAN TROUGHING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK BUT WILL
LIKELY BE A DRY PASSAGE BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR CWA AS THE BETTER
ENERGY REMAINS IN CANADA AND NORTHERLY WINDS FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRIOR
KEEP A DRY CP AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH
SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN REACH INTO THE 70S
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF 14C TO 16C ARE ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ONE TO WATCH IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS ITS ORIGINS CAN BE TRACED BACK TO BOTH SUPER
TYPHOON VONGFONG AND TROPICAL CYCLONE HUDHUD. A HEMISPHERIC WATER
VAPOR LOOP OVER THE PAST DAY SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF HUDHUD PHASING
WITH THE NE PACIFIC LOW WHICH CONTAINS THE REMNANTS OF VONGFONG.

WHILE TYPING THIS DISCUSSION...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS DECIDED TO
COMPLICATE THINGS BY COMING IN WITH A SPLIT FLOW PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. ATTM WILL IGNORE THIS SOLUTION DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED
WESTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL ACTIVITY AND ITS PROPENSITY TO AMPLIFY THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER WITH POTENT VORT MAX/COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH
EAST OF KFWA BY OR JUST SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE LEAVING MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS IN STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW THEREAFTER. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KSBN WHERE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING WEST
OF THE TERMINAL. VARIABLE MVFR-VFR CIGS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A SOLID
POST-FRONTAL MVFR STRATO CU DECK NEAR 2 KFT BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON-TONIGHT IN LINGERING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WSW WINDS AT
ISSUANCE TO VEER NORTHERLY BY TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...BENTLEY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 201644
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1244 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
TO EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHWESTERN OHIO AND EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

STRONG DCVA AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE NOW DROPPING INTO NRN IL HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER ACROSS NW INDIANA/SW LOWER
MI THIS MORNING. THIS FORCING ALONG THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL
TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL ZONES MID-LATE MORNING WHERE POPS WERE
INCREASED A BIT AND A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS ADDED. FCST ON
TRACK OTHERWISE WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NOSE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS WORKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM HILLSDALE SW TO
NEAR SYRACUSE. OVERALL COVERAGE HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR. EXPECT THE LINE TO
SHIFT EAST AND EXIT BY 12Z.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN TO
CENTRAL IOWA AS OF 8Z. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWS A RATHER STOUT SHORT
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST WITH TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE FRONT
RATHER FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS LATE AM IN THE WEST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS EAST. QUICK SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE NE INTO
MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RAMPS UP SOMEWHAT IN
RESPONSE TO THE WAVE. SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN EASTERN AREAS WITH SURFACE BASED LI`S 0 TO -2
C AND CAPE IN THE 200 TO AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG RANGE. ALSO CORE OF
COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPS (500 MB -20 TO -22 C) WILL ALSO ENHANCE LAPSE
RATES. GIVEN FAVORABLE TIMING AND THE NOTED PARAMETERS...WILL ADD
SLGT CHC MENTION OF THUNDER...ALSO MATCHING SWODY1 OUTLOOK. WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. CLOUDS WERE CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A
PERIOD OF HEATING AND TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR OR INTO THE 60S MAINLY
EAST.

COLDER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES IN LOWER LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE DEPARTS AND FLOW BECOMES NW AND THEN N OVERNIGHT.
LAKE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TEENS WITH DELTA T`S EXPECTED TO
PEAK OUT AROUND 14 C WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS 5000 TO 6000 FT.
PREVIOUS GRIDS ALREADY CAPTURES POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS IN FAR WESTERN AREAS LATE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST ITEMS TO ADDRESS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES OF ADDITIONAL SYNOPTICALLY FORCED SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY MORNING...A 100 KNOT UPPER SPEED MAX WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF EASTERN GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW.
UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHEAR ZONE WILL DIG ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. TRACK OF THIS VORT MAX SHOULD FAVOR FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC FORCING WHILE SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODERATE LOW LEVEL DELTA TEMPS AND STEEP LAKE INDUCED LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING MID LEVEL PROFILES AFTER 12Z SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. SLIGHT VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORT WAVE COULD ALSO
TAKE FOCUS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS JUST
WEST OF IWX CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. REINFORCING LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PUSH ON TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
MAIN UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME REGARDING EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER INTO
THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD TEND TO SHARPEN LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND WITH LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING...EXPECTING
LOW CLOUDS TO WIN OUT. THUS...HAVE GONE TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S MOST
LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM IN SPOTS.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AND SHIFT WEST OF
THE AREA WITH MORE VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING
LINGERING STRATOCU TO SCATTER OR CLEAR OUT SETTING UP BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST WHERE LOWS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE
30S.

REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS LARGE SCALE
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ONE NOTABLE TREND
IN GUIDANCE OVER PAST SEVERAL RUNS HAS BEEN TOWARD A DE-EMPHASIS ON
SOUTHERN STREAM CUT-OFF AND A MORE CONSOLIDATED UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. LATEST TRENDS WOULD
SUPPORT A STEADIER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS INTO THE REGION SOME TIME IN THE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY PERIOD.
WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THIS PERIOD...AND MODELS TENDING
TO STRUGGLE WITH THESE SYSTEMS IN RELATIVELY WEAKER STEERING
FLOW...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY POPS FOR THIS PERIOD BUT MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED TO ADD SOME MENTION IN THE THU/FRI TIMEFRAME.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...UPPER SYSTEM CLOSING OFF ACROSS EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF ANY MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. PROSPECTS FOR MORE NOTABLE
MODERATION SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES PUSH INTO THE REGION. SOME INDICATIONS THAT
SOUTHERN CANADIAN SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COOL FRONT SOUTH
LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY
COOLING AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE IN THIS PATTERN REMAINS LOW.
CURRENT INDICATIONS WOULD SUGGEST STRONGER LOW LEVEL CAA REMAINING
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER WITH POTENT VORT MAX/COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH
EAST OF KFWA BY OR JUST SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE LEAVING MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS IN STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW THEREAFTER. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KSBN WHERE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING WEST
OF THE TERMINAL. VARIABLE MVFR-VFR CIGS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A SOLID
POST-FRONTAL MVFR STRATO CU DECK NEAR 2 KFT BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON-TONIGHT IN LINGERING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WSW WINDS AT
ISSUANCE TO VEER NORTHERLY BY TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 201644
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1244 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
TO EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHWESTERN OHIO AND EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

STRONG DCVA AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE NOW DROPPING INTO NRN IL HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER ACROSS NW INDIANA/SW LOWER
MI THIS MORNING. THIS FORCING ALONG THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL
TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL ZONES MID-LATE MORNING WHERE POPS WERE
INCREASED A BIT AND A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS ADDED. FCST ON
TRACK OTHERWISE WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NOSE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS WORKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM HILLSDALE SW TO
NEAR SYRACUSE. OVERALL COVERAGE HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR. EXPECT THE LINE TO
SHIFT EAST AND EXIT BY 12Z.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN TO
CENTRAL IOWA AS OF 8Z. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWS A RATHER STOUT SHORT
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST WITH TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE FRONT
RATHER FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS LATE AM IN THE WEST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS EAST. QUICK SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE NE INTO
MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RAMPS UP SOMEWHAT IN
RESPONSE TO THE WAVE. SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN EASTERN AREAS WITH SURFACE BASED LI`S 0 TO -2
C AND CAPE IN THE 200 TO AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG RANGE. ALSO CORE OF
COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPS (500 MB -20 TO -22 C) WILL ALSO ENHANCE LAPSE
RATES. GIVEN FAVORABLE TIMING AND THE NOTED PARAMETERS...WILL ADD
SLGT CHC MENTION OF THUNDER...ALSO MATCHING SWODY1 OUTLOOK. WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. CLOUDS WERE CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A
PERIOD OF HEATING AND TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR OR INTO THE 60S MAINLY
EAST.

COLDER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES IN LOWER LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE DEPARTS AND FLOW BECOMES NW AND THEN N OVERNIGHT.
LAKE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TEENS WITH DELTA T`S EXPECTED TO
PEAK OUT AROUND 14 C WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS 5000 TO 6000 FT.
PREVIOUS GRIDS ALREADY CAPTURES POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS IN FAR WESTERN AREAS LATE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST ITEMS TO ADDRESS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES OF ADDITIONAL SYNOPTICALLY FORCED SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY MORNING...A 100 KNOT UPPER SPEED MAX WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF EASTERN GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW.
UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHEAR ZONE WILL DIG ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. TRACK OF THIS VORT MAX SHOULD FAVOR FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC FORCING WHILE SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODERATE LOW LEVEL DELTA TEMPS AND STEEP LAKE INDUCED LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING MID LEVEL PROFILES AFTER 12Z SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. SLIGHT VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORT WAVE COULD ALSO
TAKE FOCUS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS JUST
WEST OF IWX CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. REINFORCING LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PUSH ON TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
MAIN UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME REGARDING EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER INTO
THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD TEND TO SHARPEN LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND WITH LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING...EXPECTING
LOW CLOUDS TO WIN OUT. THUS...HAVE GONE TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S MOST
LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM IN SPOTS.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AND SHIFT WEST OF
THE AREA WITH MORE VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING
LINGERING STRATOCU TO SCATTER OR CLEAR OUT SETTING UP BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST WHERE LOWS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE
30S.

REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS LARGE SCALE
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ONE NOTABLE TREND
IN GUIDANCE OVER PAST SEVERAL RUNS HAS BEEN TOWARD A DE-EMPHASIS ON
SOUTHERN STREAM CUT-OFF AND A MORE CONSOLIDATED UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. LATEST TRENDS WOULD
SUPPORT A STEADIER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS INTO THE REGION SOME TIME IN THE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY PERIOD.
WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THIS PERIOD...AND MODELS TENDING
TO STRUGGLE WITH THESE SYSTEMS IN RELATIVELY WEAKER STEERING
FLOW...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY POPS FOR THIS PERIOD BUT MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED TO ADD SOME MENTION IN THE THU/FRI TIMEFRAME.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...UPPER SYSTEM CLOSING OFF ACROSS EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF ANY MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. PROSPECTS FOR MORE NOTABLE
MODERATION SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES PUSH INTO THE REGION. SOME INDICATIONS THAT
SOUTHERN CANADIAN SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COOL FRONT SOUTH
LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY
COOLING AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE IN THIS PATTERN REMAINS LOW.
CURRENT INDICATIONS WOULD SUGGEST STRONGER LOW LEVEL CAA REMAINING
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER WITH POTENT VORT MAX/COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH
EAST OF KFWA BY OR JUST SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE LEAVING MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS IN STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW THEREAFTER. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KSBN WHERE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING WEST
OF THE TERMINAL. VARIABLE MVFR-VFR CIGS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A SOLID
POST-FRONTAL MVFR STRATO CU DECK NEAR 2 KFT BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON-TONIGHT IN LINGERING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WSW WINDS AT
ISSUANCE TO VEER NORTHERLY BY TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 201300
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
900 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
TO EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHWESTERN OHIO AND EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

STRONG DCVA AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE NOW DROPPING INTO NRN IL HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER ACROSS NW INDIANA/SW LOWER
MI THIS MORNING. THIS FORCING ALONG THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL
TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL ZONES MID-LATE MORNING WHERE POPS WERE
INCREASED A BIT AND A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS ADDED. FCST ON
TRACK OTHERWISE WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NOSE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS WORKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM HILLSDALE SW TO
NEAR SYRACUSE. OVERALL COVERAGE HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR. EXPECT THE LINE TO
SHIFT EAST AND EXIT BY 12Z.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN TO
CENTRAL IOWA AS OF 8Z. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWS A RATHER STOUT SHORT
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST WITH TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE FRONT
RATHER FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS LATE AM IN THE WEST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS EAST. QUICK SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE NE INTO
MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RAMPS UP SOMEWHAT IN
RESPONSE TO THE WAVE. SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN EASTERN AREAS WITH SURFACE BASED LI`S 0 TO -2
C AND CAPE IN THE 200 TO AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG RANGE. ALSO CORE OF
COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPS (500 MB -20 TO -22 C) WILL ALSO ENHANCE LAPSE
RATES. GIVEN FAVORABLE TIMING AND THE NOTED PARAMETERS...WILL ADD
SLGT CHC MENTION OF THUNDER...ALSO MATCHING SWODY1 OUTLOOK. WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. CLOUDS WERE CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A
PERIOD OF HEATING AND TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR OR INTO THE 60S MAINLY
EAST.

COLDER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES IN LOWER LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE DEPARTS AND FLOW BECOMES NW AND THEN N OVERNIGHT.
LAKE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TEENS WITH DELTA T`S EXPECTED TO
PEAK OUT AROUND 14 C WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS 5000 TO 6000 FT.
PREVIOUS GRIDS ALREADY CAPTURES POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS IN FAR WESTERN AREAS LATE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST ITEMS TO ADDRESS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES OF ADDITIONAL SYNOPTICALLY FORCED SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY MORNING...A 100 KNOT UPPER SPEED MAX WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF EASTERN GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW.
UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHEAR ZONE WILL DIG ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. TRACK OF THIS VORT MAX SHOULD FAVOR FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC FORCING WHILE SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODERATE LOW LEVEL DELTA TEMPS AND STEEP LAKE INDUCED LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING MID LEVEL PROFILES AFTER 12Z SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. SLIGHT VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORT WAVE COULD ALSO
TAKE FOCUS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS JUST
WEST OF IWX CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. REINFORCING LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PUSH ON TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
MAIN UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME REGARDING EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER INTO
THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD TEND TO SHARPEN LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND WITH LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING...EXPECTING
LOW CLOUDS TO WIN OUT. THUS...HAVE GONE TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S MOST
LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM IN SPOTS.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AND SHIFT WEST OF
THE AREA WITH MORE VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING
LINGERING STRATOCU TO SCATTER OR CLEAR OUT SETTING UP BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST WHERE LOWS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE
30S.

REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS LARGE SCALE
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ONE NOTABLE TREND
IN GUIDANCE OVER PAST SEVERAL RUNS HAS BEEN TOWARD A DE-EMPHASIS ON
SOUTHERN STREAM CUT-OFF AND A MORE CONSOLIDATED UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. LATEST TRENDS WOULD
SUPPORT A STEADIER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS INTO THE REGION SOME TIME IN THE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY PERIOD.
WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THIS PERIOD...AND MODELS TENDING
TO STRUGGLE WITH THESE SYSTEMS IN RELATIVELY WEAKER STEERING
FLOW...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY POPS FOR THIS PERIOD BUT MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED TO ADD SOME MENTION IN THE THU/FRI TIMEFRAME.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...UPPER SYSTEM CLOSING OFF ACROSS EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF ANY MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. PROSPECTS FOR MORE NOTABLE
MODERATION SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES PUSH INTO THE REGION. SOME INDICATIONS THAT
SOUTHERN CANADIAN SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COOL FRONT SOUTH
LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY
COOLING AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE IN THIS PATTERN REMAINS LOW.
CURRENT INDICATIONS WOULD SUGGEST STRONGER LOW LEVEL CAA REMAINING
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION HAVE ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP. THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THIS ZONE OF FAVORED FORCING
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA WITH A FEW HOURS OF
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 14Z. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL BE TRACKING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA
TOWARD LATE MORNING...AND INTO NORTHWEST OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WAVE WILL HAVE A WEAK AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
WHICH COULD GIVE RISE TO ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM EXISTS...BUT WILL OMIT ANY MENTION FOR 12Z TAFS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 201300
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
900 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
TO EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHWESTERN OHIO AND EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

STRONG DCVA AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE NOW DROPPING INTO NRN IL HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER ACROSS NW INDIANA/SW LOWER
MI THIS MORNING. THIS FORCING ALONG THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL
TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL ZONES MID-LATE MORNING WHERE POPS WERE
INCREASED A BIT AND A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS ADDED. FCST ON
TRACK OTHERWISE WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NOSE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS WORKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM HILLSDALE SW TO
NEAR SYRACUSE. OVERALL COVERAGE HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR. EXPECT THE LINE TO
SHIFT EAST AND EXIT BY 12Z.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN TO
CENTRAL IOWA AS OF 8Z. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWS A RATHER STOUT SHORT
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST WITH TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE FRONT
RATHER FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS LATE AM IN THE WEST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS EAST. QUICK SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE NE INTO
MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RAMPS UP SOMEWHAT IN
RESPONSE TO THE WAVE. SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN EASTERN AREAS WITH SURFACE BASED LI`S 0 TO -2
C AND CAPE IN THE 200 TO AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG RANGE. ALSO CORE OF
COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPS (500 MB -20 TO -22 C) WILL ALSO ENHANCE LAPSE
RATES. GIVEN FAVORABLE TIMING AND THE NOTED PARAMETERS...WILL ADD
SLGT CHC MENTION OF THUNDER...ALSO MATCHING SWODY1 OUTLOOK. WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. CLOUDS WERE CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A
PERIOD OF HEATING AND TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR OR INTO THE 60S MAINLY
EAST.

COLDER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES IN LOWER LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE DEPARTS AND FLOW BECOMES NW AND THEN N OVERNIGHT.
LAKE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TEENS WITH DELTA T`S EXPECTED TO
PEAK OUT AROUND 14 C WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS 5000 TO 6000 FT.
PREVIOUS GRIDS ALREADY CAPTURES POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS IN FAR WESTERN AREAS LATE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST ITEMS TO ADDRESS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES OF ADDITIONAL SYNOPTICALLY FORCED SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY MORNING...A 100 KNOT UPPER SPEED MAX WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF EASTERN GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW.
UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHEAR ZONE WILL DIG ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. TRACK OF THIS VORT MAX SHOULD FAVOR FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC FORCING WHILE SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODERATE LOW LEVEL DELTA TEMPS AND STEEP LAKE INDUCED LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING MID LEVEL PROFILES AFTER 12Z SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. SLIGHT VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORT WAVE COULD ALSO
TAKE FOCUS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS JUST
WEST OF IWX CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. REINFORCING LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PUSH ON TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
MAIN UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME REGARDING EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER INTO
THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD TEND TO SHARPEN LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND WITH LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING...EXPECTING
LOW CLOUDS TO WIN OUT. THUS...HAVE GONE TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S MOST
LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM IN SPOTS.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AND SHIFT WEST OF
THE AREA WITH MORE VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING
LINGERING STRATOCU TO SCATTER OR CLEAR OUT SETTING UP BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST WHERE LOWS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE
30S.

REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS LARGE SCALE
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ONE NOTABLE TREND
IN GUIDANCE OVER PAST SEVERAL RUNS HAS BEEN TOWARD A DE-EMPHASIS ON
SOUTHERN STREAM CUT-OFF AND A MORE CONSOLIDATED UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. LATEST TRENDS WOULD
SUPPORT A STEADIER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS INTO THE REGION SOME TIME IN THE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY PERIOD.
WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THIS PERIOD...AND MODELS TENDING
TO STRUGGLE WITH THESE SYSTEMS IN RELATIVELY WEAKER STEERING
FLOW...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY POPS FOR THIS PERIOD BUT MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED TO ADD SOME MENTION IN THE THU/FRI TIMEFRAME.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...UPPER SYSTEM CLOSING OFF ACROSS EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF ANY MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. PROSPECTS FOR MORE NOTABLE
MODERATION SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES PUSH INTO THE REGION. SOME INDICATIONS THAT
SOUTHERN CANADIAN SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COOL FRONT SOUTH
LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY
COOLING AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE IN THIS PATTERN REMAINS LOW.
CURRENT INDICATIONS WOULD SUGGEST STRONGER LOW LEVEL CAA REMAINING
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION HAVE ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP. THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THIS ZONE OF FAVORED FORCING
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA WITH A FEW HOURS OF
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 14Z. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL BE TRACKING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA
TOWARD LATE MORNING...AND INTO NORTHWEST OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WAVE WILL HAVE A WEAK AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
WHICH COULD GIVE RISE TO ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM EXISTS...BUT WILL OMIT ANY MENTION FOR 12Z TAFS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 201041
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
641 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
TO EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHWESTERN OHIO AND EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NOSE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS WORKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM HILLSDALE SW TO
NEAR SYRACUSE. OVERALL COVERAGE HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR. EXPECT THE LINE TO
SHIFT EAST AND EXIT BY 12Z.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN TO
CENTRAL IOWA AS OF 8Z. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWS A RATHER STOUT SHORT
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST WITH TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE FRONT
RATHER FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS LATE AM IN THE WEST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS EAST. QUICK SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE NE INTO
MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RAMPS UP SOMEWHAT IN
RESPONSE TO THE WAVE. SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN EASTERN AREAS WITH SURFACE BASED LI`S 0 TO -2
C AND CAPE IN THE 200 TO AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG RANGE. ALSO CORE OF
COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPS (500 MB -20 TO -22 C) WILL ALSO ENHANCE LAPSE
RATES. GIVEN FAVORABLE TIMING AND THE NOTED PARAMETERS...WILL ADD
SLGT CHC MENTION OF THUNDER...ALSO MATCHING SWODY1 OUTLOOK. WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. CLOUDS WERE CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A
PERIOD OF HEATING AND TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR OR INTO THE 60S MAINLY
EAST.

COLDER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES IN LOWER LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE DEPARTS AND FLOW BECOMES NW AND THEN N OVERNIGHT.
LAKE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TEENS WITH DELTA T`S EXPECTED TO
PEAK OUT AROUND 14 C WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS 5000 TO 6000 FT.
PREVIOUS GRIDS ALREADY CAPTURES POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS IN FAR WESTERN AREAS LATE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST ITEMS TO ADDRESS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES OF ADDITIONAL SYNOPTICALLY FORCED SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY MORNING...A 100 KNOT UPPER SPEED MAX WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF EASTERN GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW.
UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHEAR ZONE WILL DIG ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. TRACK OF THIS VORT MAX SHOULD FAVOR FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC FORCING WHILE SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODERATE LOW LEVEL DELTA TEMPS AND STEEP LAKE INDUCED LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING MID LEVEL PROFILES AFTER 12Z SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. SLIGHT VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORT WAVE COULD ALSO
TAKE FOCUS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS JUST
WEST OF IWX CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. REINFORCING LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PUSH ON TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
MAIN UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME REGARDING EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER INTO
THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD TEND TO SHARPEN LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND WITH LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING...EXPECTING
LOW CLOUDS TO WIN OUT. THUS...HAVE GONE TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S MOST
LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM IN SPOTS.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AND SHIFT WEST OF
THE AREA WITH MORE VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING
LINGERING STRATOCU TO SCATTER OR CLEAR OUT SETTING UP BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST WHERE LOWS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE
30S.

REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS LARGE SCALE
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ONE NOTABLE TREND
IN GUIDANCE OVER PAST SEVERAL RUNS HAS BEEN TOWARD A DE-EMPHASIS ON
SOUTHERN STREAM CUT-OFF AND A MORE CONSOLIDATED UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. LATEST TRENDS WOULD
SUPPORT A STEADIER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS INTO THE REGION SOME TIME IN THE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY PERIOD.
WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THIS PERIOD...AND MODELS TENDING
TO STRUGGLE WITH THESE SYSTEMS IN RELATIVELY WEAKER STEERING
FLOW...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY POPS FOR THIS PERIOD BUT MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED TO ADD SOME MENTION IN THE THU/FRI TIMEFRAME.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...UPPER SYSTEM CLOSING OFF ACROSS EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF ANY MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. PROSPECTS FOR MORE NOTABLE
MODERATION SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES PUSH INTO THE REGION. SOME INDICATIONS THAT
SOUTHERN CANADIAN SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COOL FRONT SOUTH
LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY
COOLING AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE IN THIS PATTERN REMAINS LOW.
CURRENT INDICATIONS WOULD SUGGEST STRONGER LOW LEVEL CAA REMAINING
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION HAVE ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP. THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THIS ZONE OF FAVORED FORCING
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA WITH A FEW HOURS OF
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 14Z. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL BE TRACKING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA
TOWARD LATE MORNING...AND INTO NORTHWEST OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WAVE WILL HAVE A WEAK AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
WHICH COULD GIVE RISE TO ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM EXISTS...BUT WILL OMIT ANY MENTION FOR 12Z TAFS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 201041
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
641 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
TO EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHWESTERN OHIO AND EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NOSE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS WORKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM HILLSDALE SW TO
NEAR SYRACUSE. OVERALL COVERAGE HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR. EXPECT THE LINE TO
SHIFT EAST AND EXIT BY 12Z.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN TO
CENTRAL IOWA AS OF 8Z. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWS A RATHER STOUT SHORT
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST WITH TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE FRONT
RATHER FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS LATE AM IN THE WEST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS EAST. QUICK SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE NE INTO
MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RAMPS UP SOMEWHAT IN
RESPONSE TO THE WAVE. SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN EASTERN AREAS WITH SURFACE BASED LI`S 0 TO -2
C AND CAPE IN THE 200 TO AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG RANGE. ALSO CORE OF
COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPS (500 MB -20 TO -22 C) WILL ALSO ENHANCE LAPSE
RATES. GIVEN FAVORABLE TIMING AND THE NOTED PARAMETERS...WILL ADD
SLGT CHC MENTION OF THUNDER...ALSO MATCHING SWODY1 OUTLOOK. WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. CLOUDS WERE CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A
PERIOD OF HEATING AND TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR OR INTO THE 60S MAINLY
EAST.

COLDER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES IN LOWER LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE DEPARTS AND FLOW BECOMES NW AND THEN N OVERNIGHT.
LAKE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TEENS WITH DELTA T`S EXPECTED TO
PEAK OUT AROUND 14 C WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS 5000 TO 6000 FT.
PREVIOUS GRIDS ALREADY CAPTURES POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS IN FAR WESTERN AREAS LATE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST ITEMS TO ADDRESS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES OF ADDITIONAL SYNOPTICALLY FORCED SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY MORNING...A 100 KNOT UPPER SPEED MAX WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF EASTERN GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW.
UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHEAR ZONE WILL DIG ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. TRACK OF THIS VORT MAX SHOULD FAVOR FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC FORCING WHILE SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODERATE LOW LEVEL DELTA TEMPS AND STEEP LAKE INDUCED LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING MID LEVEL PROFILES AFTER 12Z SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. SLIGHT VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORT WAVE COULD ALSO
TAKE FOCUS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS JUST
WEST OF IWX CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. REINFORCING LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PUSH ON TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
MAIN UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME REGARDING EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER INTO
THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD TEND TO SHARPEN LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND WITH LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING...EXPECTING
LOW CLOUDS TO WIN OUT. THUS...HAVE GONE TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S MOST
LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM IN SPOTS.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AND SHIFT WEST OF
THE AREA WITH MORE VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING
LINGERING STRATOCU TO SCATTER OR CLEAR OUT SETTING UP BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST WHERE LOWS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE
30S.

REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS LARGE SCALE
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ONE NOTABLE TREND
IN GUIDANCE OVER PAST SEVERAL RUNS HAS BEEN TOWARD A DE-EMPHASIS ON
SOUTHERN STREAM CUT-OFF AND A MORE CONSOLIDATED UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. LATEST TRENDS WOULD
SUPPORT A STEADIER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS INTO THE REGION SOME TIME IN THE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY PERIOD.
WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THIS PERIOD...AND MODELS TENDING
TO STRUGGLE WITH THESE SYSTEMS IN RELATIVELY WEAKER STEERING
FLOW...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY POPS FOR THIS PERIOD BUT MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED TO ADD SOME MENTION IN THE THU/FRI TIMEFRAME.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...UPPER SYSTEM CLOSING OFF ACROSS EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF ANY MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. PROSPECTS FOR MORE NOTABLE
MODERATION SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES PUSH INTO THE REGION. SOME INDICATIONS THAT
SOUTHERN CANADIAN SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COOL FRONT SOUTH
LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY
COOLING AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE IN THIS PATTERN REMAINS LOW.
CURRENT INDICATIONS WOULD SUGGEST STRONGER LOW LEVEL CAA REMAINING
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION HAVE ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP. THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THIS ZONE OF FAVORED FORCING
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA WITH A FEW HOURS OF
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND 14Z. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL BE TRACKING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA
TOWARD LATE MORNING...AND INTO NORTHWEST OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WAVE WILL HAVE A WEAK AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
WHICH COULD GIVE RISE TO ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS MID MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM EXISTS...BUT WILL OMIT ANY MENTION FOR 12Z TAFS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 200827
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
427 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
TO EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHWESTERN OHIO AND EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NOSE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS WORKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM HILLSDALE SW TO
NEAR SYRACUSE. OVERALL COVERAGE HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR. EXPECT THE LINE TO
SHIFT EAST AND EXIT BY 12Z.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN TO
CENTRAL IOWA AS OF 8Z. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWS A RATHER STOUT SHORT
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST WITH TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE FRONT
RATHER FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS LATE AM IN THE WEST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS EAST. QUICK SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE NE INTO
MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RAMPS UP SOMEWHAT IN
RESPONSE TO THE WAVE. SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN EASTERN AREAS WITH SURFACE BASED LI`S 0 TO -2
C AND CAPE IN THE 200 TO AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG RANGE. ALSO CORE OF
COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPS (500 MB -20 TO -22 C) WILL ALSO ENHANCE LAPSE
RATES. GIVEN FAVORABLE TIMING AND THE NOTED PARAMETERS...WILL ADD
SLGT CHC MENTION OF THUNDER...ALSO MATCHING SWODY1 OUTLOOK. WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. CLOUDS WERE CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A
PERIOD OF HEATING AND TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR OR INTO THE 60S MAINLY
EAST.

COLDER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES IN LOWER LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE DEPARTS AND FLOW BECOMES NW AND THEN N OVERNIGHT.
LAKE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TEENS WITH DELTA T`S EXPECTED TO
PEAK OUT AROUND 14 C WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS 5000 TO 6000 FT.
PREVIOUS GRIDS ALREADY CAPTURES POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS IN FAR WESTERN AREAS LATE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST ITEMS TO ADDRESS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES OF ADDITIONAL SYNOPTICALLY FORCED SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY MORNING...A 100 KNOT UPPER SPEED MAX WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF EASTERN GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW.
UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHEAR ZONE WILL DIG ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. TRACK OF THIS VORT MAX SHOULD FAVOR FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC FORCING WHILE SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODERATE LOW LEVEL DELTA TEMPS AND STEEP LAKE INDUCED LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING MID LEVEL PROFILES AFTER 12Z SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. SLIGHT VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORT WAVE COULD ALSO
TAKE FOCUS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS JUST
WEST OF IWX CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. REINFORCING LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PUSH ON TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
MAIN UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME REGARDING EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER INTO
THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD TEND TO SHARPEN LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND WITH LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING...EXPECTING
LOW CLOUDS TO WIN OUT. THUS...HAVE GONE TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S MOST
LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM IN SPOTS.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AND SHIFT WEST OF
THE AREA WITH MORE VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING
LINGERING STRATOCU TO SCATTER OR CLEAR OUT SETTING UP BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST WHERE LOWS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE
30S.

REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS LARGE SCALE
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ONE NOTABLE TREND
IN GUIDANCE OVER PAST SEVERAL RUNS HAS BEEN TOWARD A DE-EMPHASIS ON
SOUTHERN STREAM CUT-OFF AND A MORE CONSOLIDATED UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. LATEST TRENDS WOULD
SUPPORT A STEADIER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS INTO THE REGION SOME TIME IN THE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY PERIOD.
WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THIS PERIOD...AND MODELS TENDING
TO STRUGGLE WITH THESE SYSTEMS IN RELATIVELY WEAKER STEERING
FLOW...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY POPS FOR THIS PERIOD BUT MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED TO ADD SOME MENTION IN THE THU/FRI TIMEFRAME.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...UPPER SYSTEM CLOSING OFF ACROSS EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF ANY MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. PROSPECTS FOR MORE NOTABLE
MODERATION SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES PUSH INTO THE REGION. SOME INDICATIONS THAT
SOUTHERN CANADIAN SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COOL FRONT SOUTH
LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY
COOLING AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE IN THIS PATTERN REMAINS LOW.
CURRENT INDICATIONS WOULD SUGGEST STRONGER LOW LEVEL CAA REMAINING
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MID LEVEL FORCING HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AT KFWA AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT MEASURABLE
PRECIP ARRIVING AT KSBN SHORTLY. DRY AIRMASS WAS EVIDENT WITH
RAINFALL FALLING OUT A CLOUD BASE OF 7000 TO 10000 FT. EXPECT THE
THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE DURING THE DAY BUT STILL ONLY
WORTHY OF INHERITED VCSH MENTION.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 200827
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
427 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
TO EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHWESTERN OHIO AND EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NOSE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS WORKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM HILLSDALE SW TO
NEAR SYRACUSE. OVERALL COVERAGE HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR. EXPECT THE LINE TO
SHIFT EAST AND EXIT BY 12Z.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN TO
CENTRAL IOWA AS OF 8Z. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWS A RATHER STOUT SHORT
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST WITH TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE FRONT
RATHER FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS LATE AM IN THE WEST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS EAST. QUICK SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE NE INTO
MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RAMPS UP SOMEWHAT IN
RESPONSE TO THE WAVE. SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN EASTERN AREAS WITH SURFACE BASED LI`S 0 TO -2
C AND CAPE IN THE 200 TO AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG RANGE. ALSO CORE OF
COLD UPPER LEVEL TEMPS (500 MB -20 TO -22 C) WILL ALSO ENHANCE LAPSE
RATES. GIVEN FAVORABLE TIMING AND THE NOTED PARAMETERS...WILL ADD
SLGT CHC MENTION OF THUNDER...ALSO MATCHING SWODY1 OUTLOOK. WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. CLOUDS WERE CLEARING ACROSS THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A
PERIOD OF HEATING AND TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR OR INTO THE 60S MAINLY
EAST.

COLDER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES IN LOWER LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS WAVE DEPARTS AND FLOW BECOMES NW AND THEN N OVERNIGHT.
LAKE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TEENS WITH DELTA T`S EXPECTED TO
PEAK OUT AROUND 14 C WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS 5000 TO 6000 FT.
PREVIOUS GRIDS ALREADY CAPTURES POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS IN FAR WESTERN AREAS LATE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST ITEMS TO ADDRESS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES OF ADDITIONAL SYNOPTICALLY FORCED SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY MORNING...A 100 KNOT UPPER SPEED MAX WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF EASTERN GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW.
UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHEAR ZONE WILL DIG ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. TRACK OF THIS VORT MAX SHOULD FAVOR FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC FORCING WHILE SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODERATE LOW LEVEL DELTA TEMPS AND STEEP LAKE INDUCED LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING MID LEVEL PROFILES AFTER 12Z SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. SLIGHT VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SECONDARY SFC TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORT WAVE COULD ALSO
TAKE FOCUS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS JUST
WEST OF IWX CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. REINFORCING LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PUSH ON TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER COOL DAY...WITH
MAIN UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIME REGARDING EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER INTO
THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD TEND TO SHARPEN LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND WITH LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING...EXPECTING
LOW CLOUDS TO WIN OUT. THUS...HAVE GONE TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S MOST
LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM IN SPOTS.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AND SHIFT WEST OF
THE AREA WITH MORE VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING
LINGERING STRATOCU TO SCATTER OR CLEAR OUT SETTING UP BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST WHERE LOWS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE
30S.

REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS LARGE SCALE
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ONE NOTABLE TREND
IN GUIDANCE OVER PAST SEVERAL RUNS HAS BEEN TOWARD A DE-EMPHASIS ON
SOUTHERN STREAM CUT-OFF AND A MORE CONSOLIDATED UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. LATEST TRENDS WOULD
SUPPORT A STEADIER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS INTO THE REGION SOME TIME IN THE THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY PERIOD.
WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THIS PERIOD...AND MODELS TENDING
TO STRUGGLE WITH THESE SYSTEMS IN RELATIVELY WEAKER STEERING
FLOW...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY POPS FOR THIS PERIOD BUT MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED TO ADD SOME MENTION IN THE THU/FRI TIMEFRAME.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...UPPER SYSTEM CLOSING OFF ACROSS EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF ANY MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. PROSPECTS FOR MORE NOTABLE
MODERATION SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES PUSH INTO THE REGION. SOME INDICATIONS THAT
SOUTHERN CANADIAN SHORT WAVE WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COOL FRONT SOUTH
LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY
COOLING AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE IN THIS PATTERN REMAINS LOW.
CURRENT INDICATIONS WOULD SUGGEST STRONGER LOW LEVEL CAA REMAINING
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MID LEVEL FORCING HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AT KFWA AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT MEASURABLE
PRECIP ARRIVING AT KSBN SHORTLY. DRY AIRMASS WAS EVIDENT WITH
RAINFALL FALLING OUT A CLOUD BASE OF 7000 TO 10000 FT. EXPECT THE
THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE DURING THE DAY BUT STILL ONLY
WORTHY OF INHERITED VCSH MENTION.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 200544
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
144 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 628 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BE MOVING ON AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH TOMORROW BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. AFTER THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.UPDATE...

OF NOTE: WEATHER OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT BEING TRANSMITTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES...REFERENCE THE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT FROM THIS OFFICE FOR DETAILS.

WILL BE MAKING SOME MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS IN NW AND SE AREAS
WHERE FORCING HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN TO MAKE IT
TO THE GROUND DESPITE HIGH CLOUD BASES AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.
BENTON HARBOR ASOS MEASURED AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH OF PRECIP WITH
KSBN LOOKING TO SEE SOME AS WELL SHORTLY. FORT WAYNE HAD TRACE
AMOUNTS. WILL SPEED UP TIMING OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS IN GRIDS
TO COVER BUT NO SIG CHANGES.




&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MULIPLEXED SHORTWAVES WITHIN UPSTREAM TROF FROM WRN HUDSON BAY
SOUTHWARD INTO SERN SD TO PHASE/SHARPEN AS IT SWINGS EWD INTO
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MON MORNING. DEARTH OF MOISTURE WITHIN 900-600
MB LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RENDER MSRBL RAFL
CHANCES CONSIDERABLE AND HAVE DROPPED ALL MENTION...SAVE FOR CHC
SPRINKLES NWRN/NRN CWA BYND 09 UTC. BETTER /ALBEIT MODEST/ CHANCES
FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN COLLOCATED 1000-850MB THETA-E
RIDGING NOSING THROUGH SERN CWA WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE WITHIN
LOWEST 100 MB AND LARGE SCALE UVM ACCENTUATED BY STRONG/INCREASING
MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID ON ORDER OF 70-80M/12 HRS
TRAVERSING SEWD THROUGH CWA. SECONDARY HEIGHTENED CHANCES IN NWRN
CWA AS POST FRONTAL CAA WITH MEDIOCRE THERMAL INSTABILITY LK/8H
DIFFERENTIALS APPROACHING MID TEENS IN THE NWRN CWA. MODIFIED 3
HOURLY CURVE WITH NON-DIURNAL CURVE TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE
BLEND...IN ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH SHARP FALLS WITH SUNSET
TONIGHT/POTENTIAL MIDDLE NIGHT LOWS AND FOR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CAA
TO BRING FALLING TEMPS IN MONDAY AFTERNOON ACRS NWRN/NRN CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL
SUSTAIN COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH/FLUX OFF OF LAKE MI MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SIG DRYING/SUBSIDENCE
SQUASHES EQL. MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS MAINLY OH/SC LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN TRAILING
CYCLONIC FLOW TO SHEAR THROUGH.

DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A NARROWING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND A MID-ATLANTIC CUT-OFF LOW. THIS
STRETCH OF QUIET WX AND MODERATING TEMPS SHOULD EXTEND INTO
FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS DOMINATES
UNDER FLATTER/HIGHER LAT WNW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MID LEVEL FORCING HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AT KFWA AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT MEASURABLE
PRECIP ARRIVING AT KSBN SHORTLY. DRY AIRMASS WAS EVIDENT WITH
RAINFALL FALLING OUT A CLOUD BASE OF 7000 TO 10000 FT. EXPECT THE
THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE DURING THE DAY BUT STILL ONLY
WORTHY OF INHERITED VCSH MENTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER
UPDATE...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 200544
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
144 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 628 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BE MOVING ON AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH TOMORROW BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. AFTER THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.UPDATE...

OF NOTE: WEATHER OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT BEING TRANSMITTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES...REFERENCE THE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT FROM THIS OFFICE FOR DETAILS.

WILL BE MAKING SOME MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS IN NW AND SE AREAS
WHERE FORCING HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN TO MAKE IT
TO THE GROUND DESPITE HIGH CLOUD BASES AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS.
BENTON HARBOR ASOS MEASURED AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH OF PRECIP WITH
KSBN LOOKING TO SEE SOME AS WELL SHORTLY. FORT WAYNE HAD TRACE
AMOUNTS. WILL SPEED UP TIMING OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS IN GRIDS
TO COVER BUT NO SIG CHANGES.




&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MULIPLEXED SHORTWAVES WITHIN UPSTREAM TROF FROM WRN HUDSON BAY
SOUTHWARD INTO SERN SD TO PHASE/SHARPEN AS IT SWINGS EWD INTO
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MON MORNING. DEARTH OF MOISTURE WITHIN 900-600
MB LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RENDER MSRBL RAFL
CHANCES CONSIDERABLE AND HAVE DROPPED ALL MENTION...SAVE FOR CHC
SPRINKLES NWRN/NRN CWA BYND 09 UTC. BETTER /ALBEIT MODEST/ CHANCES
FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN COLLOCATED 1000-850MB THETA-E
RIDGING NOSING THROUGH SERN CWA WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE WITHIN
LOWEST 100 MB AND LARGE SCALE UVM ACCENTUATED BY STRONG/INCREASING
MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID ON ORDER OF 70-80M/12 HRS
TRAVERSING SEWD THROUGH CWA. SECONDARY HEIGHTENED CHANCES IN NWRN
CWA AS POST FRONTAL CAA WITH MEDIOCRE THERMAL INSTABILITY LK/8H
DIFFERENTIALS APPROACHING MID TEENS IN THE NWRN CWA. MODIFIED 3
HOURLY CURVE WITH NON-DIURNAL CURVE TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE
BLEND...IN ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH SHARP FALLS WITH SUNSET
TONIGHT/POTENTIAL MIDDLE NIGHT LOWS AND FOR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CAA
TO BRING FALLING TEMPS IN MONDAY AFTERNOON ACRS NWRN/NRN CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL
SUSTAIN COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH/FLUX OFF OF LAKE MI MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SIG DRYING/SUBSIDENCE
SQUASHES EQL. MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS MAINLY OH/SC LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN TRAILING
CYCLONIC FLOW TO SHEAR THROUGH.

DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A NARROWING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND A MID-ATLANTIC CUT-OFF LOW. THIS
STRETCH OF QUIET WX AND MODERATING TEMPS SHOULD EXTEND INTO
FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS DOMINATES
UNDER FLATTER/HIGHER LAT WNW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MID LEVEL FORCING HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AT KFWA AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT MEASURABLE
PRECIP ARRIVING AT KSBN SHORTLY. DRY AIRMASS WAS EVIDENT WITH
RAINFALL FALLING OUT A CLOUD BASE OF 7000 TO 10000 FT. EXPECT THE
THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE DURING THE DAY BUT STILL ONLY
WORTHY OF INHERITED VCSH MENTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER
UPDATE...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 192333
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
733 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 628 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BE MOVING ON AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH TOMORROW BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. AFTER THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MULIPLEXED SHORTWAVES WITHIN UPSTREAM TROF FROM WRN HUDSON BAY
SOUTHWARD INTO SERN SD TO PHASE/SHARPEN AS IT SWINGS EWD INTO
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MON MORNING. DEARTH OF MOISTURE WITHIN 900-600
MB LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RENDER MSRBL RAFL
CHANCES CONSIDERABLE AND HAVE DROPPED ALL MENTION...SAVE FOR CHC
SPRINKLES NWRN/NRN CWA BYND 09 UTC. BETTER /ALBEIT MODEST/ CHANCES
FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN COLLOCATED 1000-850MB THETA-E
RIDGING NOSING THROUGH SERN CWA WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE WITHIN
LOWEST 100 MB AND LARGE SCALE UVM ACCENTUATED BY STRONG/INCREASING
MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID ON ORDER OF 70-80M/12 HRS
TRAVERSING SEWD THROUGH CWA. SECONDARY HEIGHTENED CHANCES IN NWRN
CWA AS POST FRONTAL CAA WITH MEDIOCRE THERMAL INSTABILITY LK/8H
DIFFERENTIALS APPROACHING MID TEENS IN THE NWRN CWA. MODIFIED 3
HOURLY CURVE WITH NON-DIURNAL CURVE TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE
BLEND...IN ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH SHARP FALLS WITH SUNSET
TONIGHT/POTENTIAL MIDDLE NIGHT LOWS AND FOR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CAA
TO BRING FALLING TEMPS IN MONDAY AFTERNOON ACRS NWRN/NRN CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL
SUSTAIN COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH/FLUX OFF OF LAKE MI MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SIG DRYING/SUBSIDENCE
SQUASHES EQL. MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS MAINLY OH/SC LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN TRAILING
CYCLONIC FLOW TO SHEAR THROUGH.

DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A NARROWING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND A MID-ATLANTIC CUT-OFF LOW. THIS
STRETCH OF QUIET WX AND MODERATING TEMPS SHOULD EXTEND INTO
FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS DOMINATES
UNDER FLATTER/HIGHER LAT WNW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN MN WILL MOVE SE AND DEEPEN THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVG ACROSS NRN INDIANA ON MONDAY. DEEP
MOISTURE LACKING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SO ONLY SCT -SHRA
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY IT... STILL WARRANTING JUST A VCSH IN TAFS.
CIGS EXPECTED TO GRDLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM A HIGH
CIRROSTRATUS DECK TO A LOW VFR OR HIGH END MVFR STRATO CU DECK ON
MONDAY. MODEST SWLY FLOW WILL VEER NW WITH FROPA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 192333
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
733 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 628 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BE MOVING ON AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH TOMORROW BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. AFTER THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MULIPLEXED SHORTWAVES WITHIN UPSTREAM TROF FROM WRN HUDSON BAY
SOUTHWARD INTO SERN SD TO PHASE/SHARPEN AS IT SWINGS EWD INTO
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MON MORNING. DEARTH OF MOISTURE WITHIN 900-600
MB LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RENDER MSRBL RAFL
CHANCES CONSIDERABLE AND HAVE DROPPED ALL MENTION...SAVE FOR CHC
SPRINKLES NWRN/NRN CWA BYND 09 UTC. BETTER /ALBEIT MODEST/ CHANCES
FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN COLLOCATED 1000-850MB THETA-E
RIDGING NOSING THROUGH SERN CWA WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE WITHIN
LOWEST 100 MB AND LARGE SCALE UVM ACCENTUATED BY STRONG/INCREASING
MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID ON ORDER OF 70-80M/12 HRS
TRAVERSING SEWD THROUGH CWA. SECONDARY HEIGHTENED CHANCES IN NWRN
CWA AS POST FRONTAL CAA WITH MEDIOCRE THERMAL INSTABILITY LK/8H
DIFFERENTIALS APPROACHING MID TEENS IN THE NWRN CWA. MODIFIED 3
HOURLY CURVE WITH NON-DIURNAL CURVE TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE
BLEND...IN ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH SHARP FALLS WITH SUNSET
TONIGHT/POTENTIAL MIDDLE NIGHT LOWS AND FOR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CAA
TO BRING FALLING TEMPS IN MONDAY AFTERNOON ACRS NWRN/NRN CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL
SUSTAIN COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH/FLUX OFF OF LAKE MI MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SIG DRYING/SUBSIDENCE
SQUASHES EQL. MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS MAINLY OH/SC LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN TRAILING
CYCLONIC FLOW TO SHEAR THROUGH.

DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A NARROWING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND A MID-ATLANTIC CUT-OFF LOW. THIS
STRETCH OF QUIET WX AND MODERATING TEMPS SHOULD EXTEND INTO
FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS DOMINATES
UNDER FLATTER/HIGHER LAT WNW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN MN WILL MOVE SE AND DEEPEN THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVG ACROSS NRN INDIANA ON MONDAY. DEEP
MOISTURE LACKING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SO ONLY SCT -SHRA
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY IT... STILL WARRANTING JUST A VCSH IN TAFS.
CIGS EXPECTED TO GRDLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM A HIGH
CIRROSTRATUS DECK TO A LOW VFR OR HIGH END MVFR STRATO CU DECK ON
MONDAY. MODEST SWLY FLOW WILL VEER NW WITH FROPA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 192333
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
733 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 628 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BE MOVING ON AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH TOMORROW BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. AFTER THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MULIPLEXED SHORTWAVES WITHIN UPSTREAM TROF FROM WRN HUDSON BAY
SOUTHWARD INTO SERN SD TO PHASE/SHARPEN AS IT SWINGS EWD INTO
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MON MORNING. DEARTH OF MOISTURE WITHIN 900-600
MB LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RENDER MSRBL RAFL
CHANCES CONSIDERABLE AND HAVE DROPPED ALL MENTION...SAVE FOR CHC
SPRINKLES NWRN/NRN CWA BYND 09 UTC. BETTER /ALBEIT MODEST/ CHANCES
FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN COLLOCATED 1000-850MB THETA-E
RIDGING NOSING THROUGH SERN CWA WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE WITHIN
LOWEST 100 MB AND LARGE SCALE UVM ACCENTUATED BY STRONG/INCREASING
MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID ON ORDER OF 70-80M/12 HRS
TRAVERSING SEWD THROUGH CWA. SECONDARY HEIGHTENED CHANCES IN NWRN
CWA AS POST FRONTAL CAA WITH MEDIOCRE THERMAL INSTABILITY LK/8H
DIFFERENTIALS APPROACHING MID TEENS IN THE NWRN CWA. MODIFIED 3
HOURLY CURVE WITH NON-DIURNAL CURVE TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE
BLEND...IN ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH SHARP FALLS WITH SUNSET
TONIGHT/POTENTIAL MIDDLE NIGHT LOWS AND FOR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CAA
TO BRING FALLING TEMPS IN MONDAY AFTERNOON ACRS NWRN/NRN CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL
SUSTAIN COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH/FLUX OFF OF LAKE MI MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SIG DRYING/SUBSIDENCE
SQUASHES EQL. MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS MAINLY OH/SC LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN TRAILING
CYCLONIC FLOW TO SHEAR THROUGH.

DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A NARROWING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND A MID-ATLANTIC CUT-OFF LOW. THIS
STRETCH OF QUIET WX AND MODERATING TEMPS SHOULD EXTEND INTO
FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS DOMINATES
UNDER FLATTER/HIGHER LAT WNW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN MN WILL MOVE SE AND DEEPEN THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVG ACROSS NRN INDIANA ON MONDAY. DEEP
MOISTURE LACKING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SO ONLY SCT -SHRA
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY IT... STILL WARRANTING JUST A VCSH IN TAFS.
CIGS EXPECTED TO GRDLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM A HIGH
CIRROSTRATUS DECK TO A LOW VFR OR HIGH END MVFR STRATO CU DECK ON
MONDAY. MODEST SWLY FLOW WILL VEER NW WITH FROPA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 192333
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
733 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 628 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BE MOVING ON AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH TOMORROW BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. AFTER THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MULIPLEXED SHORTWAVES WITHIN UPSTREAM TROF FROM WRN HUDSON BAY
SOUTHWARD INTO SERN SD TO PHASE/SHARPEN AS IT SWINGS EWD INTO
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MON MORNING. DEARTH OF MOISTURE WITHIN 900-600
MB LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RENDER MSRBL RAFL
CHANCES CONSIDERABLE AND HAVE DROPPED ALL MENTION...SAVE FOR CHC
SPRINKLES NWRN/NRN CWA BYND 09 UTC. BETTER /ALBEIT MODEST/ CHANCES
FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN COLLOCATED 1000-850MB THETA-E
RIDGING NOSING THROUGH SERN CWA WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE WITHIN
LOWEST 100 MB AND LARGE SCALE UVM ACCENTUATED BY STRONG/INCREASING
MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID ON ORDER OF 70-80M/12 HRS
TRAVERSING SEWD THROUGH CWA. SECONDARY HEIGHTENED CHANCES IN NWRN
CWA AS POST FRONTAL CAA WITH MEDIOCRE THERMAL INSTABILITY LK/8H
DIFFERENTIALS APPROACHING MID TEENS IN THE NWRN CWA. MODIFIED 3
HOURLY CURVE WITH NON-DIURNAL CURVE TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE
BLEND...IN ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH SHARP FALLS WITH SUNSET
TONIGHT/POTENTIAL MIDDLE NIGHT LOWS AND FOR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CAA
TO BRING FALLING TEMPS IN MONDAY AFTERNOON ACRS NWRN/NRN CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL
SUSTAIN COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH/FLUX OFF OF LAKE MI MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SIG DRYING/SUBSIDENCE
SQUASHES EQL. MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS MAINLY OH/SC LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN TRAILING
CYCLONIC FLOW TO SHEAR THROUGH.

DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A NARROWING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND A MID-ATLANTIC CUT-OFF LOW. THIS
STRETCH OF QUIET WX AND MODERATING TEMPS SHOULD EXTEND INTO
FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS DOMINATES
UNDER FLATTER/HIGHER LAT WNW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN MN WILL MOVE SE AND DEEPEN THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVG ACROSS NRN INDIANA ON MONDAY. DEEP
MOISTURE LACKING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SO ONLY SCT -SHRA
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY IT... STILL WARRANTING JUST A VCSH IN TAFS.
CIGS EXPECTED TO GRDLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM A HIGH
CIRROSTRATUS DECK TO A LOW VFR OR HIGH END MVFR STRATO CU DECK ON
MONDAY. MODEST SWLY FLOW WILL VEER NW WITH FROPA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 192237
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
637 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 628 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BE MOVING ON AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH TOMORROW BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. AFTER THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MULIPLEXED SHORTWAVES WITHIN UPSTREAM TROF FROM WRN HUDSON BAY
SOUTHWARD INTO SERN SD TO PHASE/SHARPEN AS IT SWINGS EWD INTO
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUN MORNING. DEARTH OF MOISTURE WITHIN
900-600 MB LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RENDER MSRBL
RAFL CHANCES CONSIDERABLE AND HAVE DROPPED ALL MENTION...SAVE FOR
CHC SPRINKLES NWRN/NRN CWA BYND 09 UTC. BETTER /ALBEIT MODEST/
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN COLLOCATED 1000-850MB
THETA-E RIDGING NOSING THROUGH SERN CWA WITH INCREASING
CONVERGENCE WITHIN LOWEST 100 MB AND LARGE SCALE UVM ACCENTUATED
BY STRONG/INCREASING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID ON
ORDER OF 70-80M/12 HRS TRAVERSING SEWD THROUGH CWA. SECONDARY
HEIGHTENED CHANCES IN NWRN CWA AS POST FRONTAL CAA WITH MEDIOCRE
THERMAL INSTABILITY LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS APPROACHING MID TEENS IN
THE NWRN CWA. MODIFIED 3 HOURLY CURVE WITH NON-DIURNAL CURVE
TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE BLEND...IN ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH
SHARP FALLS WITH SUNSET TONIGHT/POTENTIAL MIDDLE NIGHT LOWS AND
FOR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CAA TO BRING FALLING TEMPS IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACRS NWRN/NRN CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL
SUSTAIN COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH/FLUX OFF OF LAKE MI MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SIG DRYING/SUBSIDENCE
SQUASHES EQL. MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS MAINLY OH/SC LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN TRAILING
CYCLONIC FLOW TO SHEAR THROUGH.

DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A NARROWING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND A MID-ATLANTIC CUT-OFF LOW. THIS
STRETCH OF QUIET WX AND MODERATING TEMPS SHOULD EXTEND INTO
FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS DOMINATES
UNDER FLATTER/HIGHER LAT WNW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BY AND LARGE VFR MET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR
GOOD POTENTIAL TO LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR CIGS ACROSS NWRN IN IN
WAKE OF MIDDAY FROPA. KFWA BEST MOISTURE POOLING AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION PROFILE AFFORDED BY SHARPENING TROF...STILL VCSH
SHOULD COVER GIVEN OVERALL MODEST MOISTURE PROFILE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 192237
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
637 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 628 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BE MOVING ON AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH TOMORROW BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. AFTER THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MULIPLEXED SHORTWAVES WITHIN UPSTREAM TROF FROM WRN HUDSON BAY
SOUTHWARD INTO SERN SD TO PHASE/SHARPEN AS IT SWINGS EWD INTO
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUN MORNING. DEARTH OF MOISTURE WITHIN
900-600 MB LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RENDER MSRBL
RAFL CHANCES CONSIDERABLE AND HAVE DROPPED ALL MENTION...SAVE FOR
CHC SPRINKLES NWRN/NRN CWA BYND 09 UTC. BETTER /ALBEIT MODEST/
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN COLLOCATED 1000-850MB
THETA-E RIDGING NOSING THROUGH SERN CWA WITH INCREASING
CONVERGENCE WITHIN LOWEST 100 MB AND LARGE SCALE UVM ACCENTUATED
BY STRONG/INCREASING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID ON
ORDER OF 70-80M/12 HRS TRAVERSING SEWD THROUGH CWA. SECONDARY
HEIGHTENED CHANCES IN NWRN CWA AS POST FRONTAL CAA WITH MEDIOCRE
THERMAL INSTABILITY LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS APPROACHING MID TEENS IN
THE NWRN CWA. MODIFIED 3 HOURLY CURVE WITH NON-DIURNAL CURVE
TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE BLEND...IN ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH
SHARP FALLS WITH SUNSET TONIGHT/POTENTIAL MIDDLE NIGHT LOWS AND
FOR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CAA TO BRING FALLING TEMPS IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACRS NWRN/NRN CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL
SUSTAIN COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH/FLUX OFF OF LAKE MI MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SIG DRYING/SUBSIDENCE
SQUASHES EQL. MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS MAINLY OH/SC LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN TRAILING
CYCLONIC FLOW TO SHEAR THROUGH.

DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A NARROWING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND A MID-ATLANTIC CUT-OFF LOW. THIS
STRETCH OF QUIET WX AND MODERATING TEMPS SHOULD EXTEND INTO
FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS DOMINATES
UNDER FLATTER/HIGHER LAT WNW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BY AND LARGE VFR MET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR
GOOD POTENTIAL TO LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR CIGS ACROSS NWRN IN IN
WAKE OF MIDDAY FROPA. KFWA BEST MOISTURE POOLING AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION PROFILE AFFORDED BY SHARPENING TROF...STILL VCSH
SHOULD COVER GIVEN OVERALL MODEST MOISTURE PROFILE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 192000
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
400 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED AS THE WORK WEEK BEGINS.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL
REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MULIPLEXED SHORTWAVES WITHIN UPSTREAM TROF FROM WRN HUDSON BAY
SOUTHWARD INTO SERN SD TO PHASE/SHARPEN AS IT SWINGS EWD INTO
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUN MORNING. DEARTH OF MOISTURE WITHIN
900-600 MB LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RENDER MSRBL
RAFL CHANCES CONSIDERABLE AND HAVE DROPPED ALL MENTION...SAVE FOR
CHC SPRINKLES NWRN/NRN CWA BYND 09 UTC. BETTER /ALBEIT MODEST/
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN COLLOCATED 1000-850MB
THETA-E RIDGING NOSING THROUGH SERN CWA WITH INCREASING
CONVERGENCE WITHIN LOWEST 100 MB AND LARGE SCALE UVM ACCENTUATED
BY STRONG/INCREASING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID ON
ORDER OF 70-80M/12 HRS TRAVERSING SEWD THROUGH CWA. SECONDARY
HEIGHTENED CHANCES IN NWRN CWA AS POST FRONTAL CAA WITH MEDIOCRE
THERMAL INSTABILITY LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS APPROACHING MID TEENS IN
THE NWRN CWA. MODIFIED 3 HOURLY CURVE WITH NON-DIURNAL CURVE
TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE BLEND...IN ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH
SHARP FALLS WITH SUNSET TONIGHT/POTENTIAL MIDDLE NIGHT LOWS AND
FOR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CAA TO BRING FALLING TEMPS IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACRS NWRN/NRN CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL
SUSTAIN COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH/FLUX OFF OF LAKE MI MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SIG DRYING/SUBSIDENCE
SQUASHES EQL. MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS MAINLY OH/SC LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN TRAILING
CYCLONIC FLOW TO SHEAR THROUGH.

DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A NARROWING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND A MID-ATLANTIC CUT-OFF LOW. THIS
STRETCH OF QUIET WX AND MODERATING TEMPS SHOULD EXTEND INTO
FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS DOMINATES
UNDER FLATTER/HIGHER LAT WNW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BY AND LARGE VFR MET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR
GOOD POTENTIAL TO LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR CIGS ACROSS NWRN IN IN
WAKE OF MIDDAY FROPA. KFWA BEST MOISTURE POOLING AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION PROFILE AFFORDED BY SHARPENING TROF...STILL VCSH
SHOULD COVER GIVEN OVERALL MODEST MOISTURE PROFILE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 191732
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
132 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED AS THE WORK WEEK BEGINS.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL
REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CLEARING CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY SOUTH WITH WINDS
DECOUPLING...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO ALREADY DROP IN TO THE LOWER
30S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND THE IN/MI BORDER. EXPECT THIS
DOWNWARD TREND TO CONTINUE WITH COLDEST READINGS NE AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED.

FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SEEN IN MOST AREAS TODAY AS MODEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION TRIES TO ALLOW FOR WARMER HIGHS.
HOWEVER...LOWERING SUN ANGLE...LIMITED MIXING TO 900 MB OR SO AND
COLD START TO THE DAY WILL ALL HELP KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH
WARMEST READINGS SW.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DROP RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
RAINFALL CHANCES AS MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL AND LOWER LEVELS
TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE...IF AT ALL ESPECIALLY NW.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS BARELY DROP TO 30 MB. LOCAL WRF
GIVES SOME GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR A BIT OF RAINFALL BUT ONLY IN A
NARROW STRIPE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ALSO...ONLY 1 MODEL HOLDS
ONTO FORMATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SE AREAS DESPITE
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE SETUP. AS A RESULT...AND IN
AGREEMENT WITH MOST SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE LOWERED POPS IN
ALL AREAS AND PLACED HIGHEST EMPHASIS ON 9 TO 12Z MON TIME FRAME.
BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO RESIDE JUST OUTSIDE THIS FORECAST PERIOD
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD TO BEGIN WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. TREND OVER PAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES HAS
BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE DELAYED AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WITH
LESS RESIDENCE TIME ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SHOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH STRONGEST UPPER FORCING...GENERALLY
SUPPORTED IN THE 12Z-18Z TIMEFRAME MONDAY PER NAM/GFS UPPER LEVEL
Q-VEC PROGS. NARROW/WEAK SCOPE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE/DURATION OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO WEST-EAST POP
GRADIENT ON MONDAY...WITH BEST AFTERNOON CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST
WHERE SOME VERY WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND
JUST IN ADVANCE OF SFC TROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PASSAGE OF MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ONSET OF LOW LEVEL DRY/COLD
ADVECTION. SOME WEAK LAKE RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BUT DRYING MID LEVEL PROFILES AND
SHALLOW/MARGINAL NATURE TO LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY SHOULD
MINIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SHOULD
BE IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH PERHAPS
SOME LOWER 60S EXTREME SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...AND
WHERE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME INSOLATION SHOULD EXIST LATER IN THE
DAY.

UPPER SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY CLOSE OFF EAST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. THIS MID/UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING TO
LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SLOW MODERATION
IN TEMPS FOR THE THU-SAT PERIOD. AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
REACHING WESTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY REACH CENTRAL
CONUS THURSDAY WITH BULK OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTING CUT-
OFF SOLUTION TAKING SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS TYPE OF SETUP...AND DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODERATING LOW LEVELS
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BY AND LARGE VFR MET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR
GOOD POTENTIAL TO LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR CIGS ACROSS NWRN IN IN
WAKE OF MIDDAY FROPA. KFWA BEST MOISTURE POOLING AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION PROFILE AFFORDED BY SHARPENING TROF...STILL VCSH
SHOULD COVER GIVEN OVERALL MODEST MOISTURE PROFILE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 191033
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
633 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION AFTER
A FROSTY MORNING IN MANY SPOTS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CLEARING CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY SOUTH WITH WINDS
DECOUPLING...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO ALREADY DROP IN TO THE LOWER 30S
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND THE IN/MI BORDER. EXPECT THIS DOWNWARD
TREND TO CONTINUE WITH COLDEST READINGS NE AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SEEN IN MOST AREAS TODAY AS MODEST WARM
AIR ADVECTION TRIES TO ALLOW FOR WARMER HIGHS. HOWEVER...LOWERING
SUN ANGLE...LIMITED MIXING TO 900 MB OR SO AND COLD START TO THE DAY
WILL ALL HELP KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH WARMEST READINGS SW.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DROP RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAINFALL
CHANCES AS MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL AND LOWER LEVELS TAKE SOME TIME
TO SATURATE...IF AT ALL ESPECIALLY NW. CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BARELY DROP TO 30 MB. LOCAL WRF GIVES SOME GLIMMER OF HOPE
FOR A BIT OF RAINFALL BUT ONLY IN A NARROW STRIPE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. ALSO...ONLY 1 MODEL HOLDS ONTO FORMATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS SE AREAS DESPITE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE SETUP. AS A
RESULT...AND IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE
LOWERED POPS IN ALL AREAS AND PLACED HIGHEST EMPHASIS ON 9 TO 12Z
MON TIME FRAME. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO RESIDE JUST OUTSIDE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD TO BEGIN WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. TREND OVER PAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES HAS BEEN
FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE DELAYED AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WITH
LESS RESIDENCE TIME ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD
BE COINCIDENT WITH STRONGEST UPPER FORCING...GENERALLY SUPPORTED IN
THE 12Z-18Z TIMEFRAME MONDAY PER NAM/GFS UPPER LEVEL Q-VEC PROGS.
NARROW/WEAK SCOPE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE/DURATION OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
CHANCES. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO WEST-EAST POP GRADIENT ON
MONDAY...WITH BEST AFTERNOON CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST WHERE SOME VERY
WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF
SFC TROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF MID/UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND ONSET OF LOW LEVEL DRY/COLD ADVECTION. SOME WEAK
LAKE RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT
BUT DRYING MID LEVEL PROFILES AND SHALLOW/MARGINAL NATURE TO LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY SHOULD MINIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 60S EXTREME SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD
BE LOCATED ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION...AND WHERE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME INSOLATION SHOULD EXIST
LATER IN THE DAY.

UPPER SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY CLOSE OFF EAST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING TO LINGER THROUGH MID
WEEK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS FOR THE
THU-SAT PERIOD. AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH REACHING WESTERN CONUS ON
TUESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY REACH CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY WITH BULK OF
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTING CUT-OFF SOLUTION TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ANTICIPATED WITH THIS TYPE OF SETUP...AND
DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MODERATING LOW LEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SFC ANTICYCLONE TO TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...ALLOWING
FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONGEST GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT KSBN WHERE 10
TO 15 KNOT SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
PATCHY SCT-BKN 2500-3500 FT LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS MORNING AND WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ESTABLISHED...SOME LOW END CHANCE EXISTS FOR BRIEF MVFR
CIGS AT KSBN IN THE 13Z-16Z TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THICKENING MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT
TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTH WIND SPEEDS TO BE MAINTAINED AROUND
10 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ005>009-
     016>018-024>027-032>034.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR INZ003-
     004-012>015-020-022-023.

MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ078>081.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077.

OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 191033
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
633 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION AFTER
A FROSTY MORNING IN MANY SPOTS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CLEARING CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY SOUTH WITH WINDS
DECOUPLING...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO ALREADY DROP IN TO THE LOWER 30S
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND THE IN/MI BORDER. EXPECT THIS DOWNWARD
TREND TO CONTINUE WITH COLDEST READINGS NE AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SEEN IN MOST AREAS TODAY AS MODEST WARM
AIR ADVECTION TRIES TO ALLOW FOR WARMER HIGHS. HOWEVER...LOWERING
SUN ANGLE...LIMITED MIXING TO 900 MB OR SO AND COLD START TO THE DAY
WILL ALL HELP KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH WARMEST READINGS SW.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DROP RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAINFALL
CHANCES AS MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL AND LOWER LEVELS TAKE SOME TIME
TO SATURATE...IF AT ALL ESPECIALLY NW. CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BARELY DROP TO 30 MB. LOCAL WRF GIVES SOME GLIMMER OF HOPE
FOR A BIT OF RAINFALL BUT ONLY IN A NARROW STRIPE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. ALSO...ONLY 1 MODEL HOLDS ONTO FORMATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS SE AREAS DESPITE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE SETUP. AS A
RESULT...AND IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE
LOWERED POPS IN ALL AREAS AND PLACED HIGHEST EMPHASIS ON 9 TO 12Z
MON TIME FRAME. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO RESIDE JUST OUTSIDE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD TO BEGIN WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. TREND OVER PAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES HAS BEEN
FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE DELAYED AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WITH
LESS RESIDENCE TIME ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD
BE COINCIDENT WITH STRONGEST UPPER FORCING...GENERALLY SUPPORTED IN
THE 12Z-18Z TIMEFRAME MONDAY PER NAM/GFS UPPER LEVEL Q-VEC PROGS.
NARROW/WEAK SCOPE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE/DURATION OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
CHANCES. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO WEST-EAST POP GRADIENT ON
MONDAY...WITH BEST AFTERNOON CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST WHERE SOME VERY
WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF
SFC TROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF MID/UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND ONSET OF LOW LEVEL DRY/COLD ADVECTION. SOME WEAK
LAKE RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT
BUT DRYING MID LEVEL PROFILES AND SHALLOW/MARGINAL NATURE TO LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY SHOULD MINIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 60S EXTREME SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD
BE LOCATED ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION...AND WHERE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME INSOLATION SHOULD EXIST
LATER IN THE DAY.

UPPER SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY CLOSE OFF EAST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING TO LINGER THROUGH MID
WEEK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS FOR THE
THU-SAT PERIOD. AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH REACHING WESTERN CONUS ON
TUESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY REACH CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY WITH BULK OF
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTING CUT-OFF SOLUTION TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ANTICIPATED WITH THIS TYPE OF SETUP...AND
DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MODERATING LOW LEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SFC ANTICYCLONE TO TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...ALLOWING
FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONGEST GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT KSBN WHERE 10
TO 15 KNOT SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
PATCHY SCT-BKN 2500-3500 FT LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS MORNING AND WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ESTABLISHED...SOME LOW END CHANCE EXISTS FOR BRIEF MVFR
CIGS AT KSBN IN THE 13Z-16Z TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THICKENING MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT
TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOUTH WIND SPEEDS TO BE MAINTAINED AROUND
10 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ005>009-
     016>018-024>027-032>034.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR INZ003-
     004-012>015-020-022-023.

MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ078>081.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077.

OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 190805
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
405 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION AFTER
A FROSTY MORNING IN MANY SPOTS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014


CLEARING CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY SOUTH WITH WINDS
DECOUPLING...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO ALREADY DROP IN TO THE LOWER 30S
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND THE IN/MI BORDER. EXPECT THIS DOWNWARD
TREND TO CONTINUE WITH COLDEST READINGS NE AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SEEN IN MOST AREAS TODAY AS MODEST WARM
AIR ADVECTION TRIES TO ALLOW FOR WARMER HIGHS. HOWEVER...LOWERING
SUN ANGLE...LIMITED MIXING TO 900 MB OR SO AND COLD START TO THE DAY
WILL ALL HELP KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH WARMEST READINGS SW.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DROP RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAINFALL
CHANCES AS MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL AND LOWER LEVELS TAKE SOME TIME
TO SATURATE...IF AT ALL ESPECIALLY NW. CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BARELY DROP TO 30 MB. LOCAL WRF GIVES SOME GLIMMER OF HOPE
FOR A BIT OF RAINFALL BUT ONLY IN A NARROW STRIPE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. ALSO...ONLY 1 MODEL HOLDS ONTO FORMATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS SE AREAS DESPITE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE SETUP. AS A
RESULT...AND IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE
LOWERED POPS IN ALL AREAS AND PLACED HIGHEST EMPHASIS ON 9 TO 12Z
MON TIME FRAME. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO RESIDE JUST OUTSIDE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD TO BEGIN WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. TREND OVER PAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES HAS BEEN
FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE DELAYED AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WITH
LESS RESIDENCE TIME ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD
BE COINCIDENT WITH STRONGEST UPPER FORCING...GENERALLY SUPPORTED IN
THE 12Z-18Z TIMEFRAME MONDAY PER NAM/GFS UPPER LEVEL Q-VEC PROGS.
NARROW/WEAK SCOPE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE/DURATION OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
CHANCES. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO WEST-EAST POP GRADIENT ON
MONDAY...WITH BEST AFTERNOON CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST WHERE SOME VERY
WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF
SFC TROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF MID/UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND ONSET OF LOW LEVEL DRY/COLD ADVECTION. SOME WEAK
LAKE RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT
BUT DRYING MID LEVEL PROFILES AND SHALLOW/MARGINAL NATURE TO LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY SHOULD MINIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 60S EXTREME SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD
BE LOCATED ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION...AND WHERE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME INSOLATION SHOULD EXIST
LATER IN THE DAY.

UPPER SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY CLOSE OFF EAST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING TO LINGER THROUGH MID
WEEK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS FOR THE
THU-SAT PERIOD. AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH REACHING WESTERN CONUS ON
TUESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY REACH CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY WITH BULK OF
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTING CUT-OFF SOLUTION TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ANTICIPATED WITH THIS TYPE OF SETUP...AND
DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MODERATING LOW LEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CLOUD COVER SLOWLY CONTINUING TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
KSBN NOW ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF BKN STRATUS DECK. AT
KFWA...PROGRESS OF MIXING OF STRATUS HAS BEEN MORE STUBBORN
RESULTING IN NEED TO EXTEND MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER. AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN STILL EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TOWARDS MORNING.

DAYLIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WITH WINDS
INCREASING SOMEWHAT AS FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING TONIGHT. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY STREAM IN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AT KSBN BUT HAVE LEFT OUT FOR THE
TIME BEING.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ005>009-
     016>018-024>027-032>034.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR INZ003-
     004-012>015-020-022-023.

MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ078>081.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077.

OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 190805
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
405 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION AFTER
A FROSTY MORNING IN MANY SPOTS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014


CLEARING CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY SOUTH WITH WINDS
DECOUPLING...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO ALREADY DROP IN TO THE LOWER 30S
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND THE IN/MI BORDER. EXPECT THIS DOWNWARD
TREND TO CONTINUE WITH COLDEST READINGS NE AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.

FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SEEN IN MOST AREAS TODAY AS MODEST WARM
AIR ADVECTION TRIES TO ALLOW FOR WARMER HIGHS. HOWEVER...LOWERING
SUN ANGLE...LIMITED MIXING TO 900 MB OR SO AND COLD START TO THE DAY
WILL ALL HELP KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH WARMEST READINGS SW.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DROP RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON RAINFALL
CHANCES AS MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL AND LOWER LEVELS TAKE SOME TIME
TO SATURATE...IF AT ALL ESPECIALLY NW. CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BARELY DROP TO 30 MB. LOCAL WRF GIVES SOME GLIMMER OF HOPE
FOR A BIT OF RAINFALL BUT ONLY IN A NARROW STRIPE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. ALSO...ONLY 1 MODEL HOLDS ONTO FORMATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS SE AREAS DESPITE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE SETUP. AS A
RESULT...AND IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE
LOWERED POPS IN ALL AREAS AND PLACED HIGHEST EMPHASIS ON 9 TO 12Z
MON TIME FRAME. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO RESIDE JUST OUTSIDE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD TO BEGIN WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. TREND OVER PAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES HAS BEEN
FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE DELAYED AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WITH
LESS RESIDENCE TIME ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD
BE COINCIDENT WITH STRONGEST UPPER FORCING...GENERALLY SUPPORTED IN
THE 12Z-18Z TIMEFRAME MONDAY PER NAM/GFS UPPER LEVEL Q-VEC PROGS.
NARROW/WEAK SCOPE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE/DURATION OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
CHANCES. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO WEST-EAST POP GRADIENT ON
MONDAY...WITH BEST AFTERNOON CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST WHERE SOME VERY
WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF
SFC TROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF MID/UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND ONSET OF LOW LEVEL DRY/COLD ADVECTION. SOME WEAK
LAKE RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT
BUT DRYING MID LEVEL PROFILES AND SHALLOW/MARGINAL NATURE TO LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY SHOULD MINIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 60S EXTREME SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD
BE LOCATED ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION...AND WHERE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME INSOLATION SHOULD EXIST
LATER IN THE DAY.

UPPER SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY CLOSE OFF EAST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING TO LINGER THROUGH MID
WEEK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS FOR THE
THU-SAT PERIOD. AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH REACHING WESTERN CONUS ON
TUESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY REACH CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY WITH BULK OF
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTING CUT-OFF SOLUTION TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ANTICIPATED WITH THIS TYPE OF SETUP...AND
DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MODERATING LOW LEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CLOUD COVER SLOWLY CONTINUING TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
KSBN NOW ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF BKN STRATUS DECK. AT
KFWA...PROGRESS OF MIXING OF STRATUS HAS BEEN MORE STUBBORN
RESULTING IN NEED TO EXTEND MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER. AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN STILL EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TOWARDS MORNING.

DAYLIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WITH WINDS
INCREASING SOMEWHAT AS FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING TONIGHT. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY STREAM IN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AT KSBN BUT HAVE LEFT OUT FOR THE
TIME BEING.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ005>009-
     016>018-024>027-032>034.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR INZ003-
     004-012>015-020-022-023.

MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ078>081.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077.

OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 190552
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
152 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 614 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
USHERING IN COLD DRY AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM, CLOUDS DECREASE, AND TEMPERATURES DROP
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN AFFECT FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION AND A FROST ADVISORY IS IN
AFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION. TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EVENING WORDING TO COVER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE/PUSH SEWD THROUGH CWA...IN WAKE OF POTENT
TROF AXIS /CURRENTLY WRN LK ERIE TO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS DRIVING
RAPIDLY THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AND
PHASING TO NEUTRAL AXIS LONGWAVE TROF CENTERED ACROSS QUEBEC/EAST
OF JAMES BAY. RAPID SOUTHEASTWARD ROTATION AIDED BY LIFTOUT OF
POST TROPICAL GONZALO THROUGH NORTHERN ATL. NEXT ISSUE REVOLVES
AROUND TEMPERATURES/FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. RAPID CLEARING NOTED
THROUGHOUT UPPER MS VALLEY REGION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
80-100M/12 HR HEIGHT RISE CENTROID OVER NERN MN TO INTENSIFYING TO
120-140M RISES OVR FAR SRN IN BY 09 UTC. WHILE LESSER RISES FOR
CWA...INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOTION AND LESSENING OF LAKE INFLUENCE PER LIGHTENING/BACKING
FLOW WITH THERMAL LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS BECOMING MODEST/AT BEST
LOWER TEENS BY 03 UTC SUSPECT NAM CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS NWRN/WRN
CWA A BIT PESSIMISTIC...WITH COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM HIGH END MVFR TO
LIKELY BECOMES INCREASINGLY RIDDLED WITH HOLES AND EVENTUAL
SCATTERING OUT IN THIS AREA BY DAYBREAK. A MORE EASILY ATTAINABLE
CLEARING LIKELY REMAINDER OF CWA OUTSIDE OF LAKE INFLUENCE AND
DRY/COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM INTERIOR LOWER MICHIGAN. PRESENCE OF
925MB THERMAL TROF /ON ORDER OF M2-M4C/ THROUGH EASTERN CWA
SUGGESTS LOWEST TEMPS HERE...AND HAVE UNDERCUT EVEN LOWEST OF MOS
TEMPS. DECENT INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL RETURN FLOW BY AFTERNOON
SUGGESTS DIURNAL PLUS RISES ATTAINABLE WITH MINOR GRADIENT
MODIFICATION PER NEWD THERMAL TROF LIFTOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ONE MORE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH IN
NW FLOW WAVE TRAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO
LOOK DECENT GIVEN AMPLIFYING 60-80 METER HEIGHT FALL CENTROID
TRACK SE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MOISTURE RETURN HOWEVER REMAINS
LESS IMPRESSIVE AND LIKELY MORE FOCUSED/CONVERGENT OVER OR JUST
EAST OF OUR EASTERN ZONES. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED MORE BROADBRUSH
LOW-MID CHANCE POPS (HIGHEST EAST) DURING THIS TIME. RENEWED
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IN VEERED POST-FRONTAL CAA REGIME
MAY SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/SPRINKLES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN MID-LATE WEEK IN TANDEM
WITH SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF A CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF QUIET WX AND MODERATING
TEMPS BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CLOUD COVER SLOWLY CONTINUING TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
KSBN NOW ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF BKN STRATUS DECK. AT
KFWA...PROGRESS OF MIXING OF STRATUS HAS BEEN MORE STUBBORN
RESULTING IN NEED TO EXTEND MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER. AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN STILL EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TOWARDS MORNING.

DAYLIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WITH WINDS
INCREASING SOMEWHAT AS FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING TONIGHT. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY STREAM IN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AT KSBN BUT HAVE LEFT OUT FOR THE
TIME BEING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ005>009-
     016>018-024>027-032>034.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR INZ003-
     004-012>015-020-022-023.

MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ078>081.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077.

OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 190552
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
152 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 614 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
USHERING IN COLD DRY AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM, CLOUDS DECREASE, AND TEMPERATURES DROP
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN AFFECT FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION AND A FROST ADVISORY IS IN
AFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION. TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EVENING WORDING TO COVER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE/PUSH SEWD THROUGH CWA...IN WAKE OF POTENT
TROF AXIS /CURRENTLY WRN LK ERIE TO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS DRIVING
RAPIDLY THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AND
PHASING TO NEUTRAL AXIS LONGWAVE TROF CENTERED ACROSS QUEBEC/EAST
OF JAMES BAY. RAPID SOUTHEASTWARD ROTATION AIDED BY LIFTOUT OF
POST TROPICAL GONZALO THROUGH NORTHERN ATL. NEXT ISSUE REVOLVES
AROUND TEMPERATURES/FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. RAPID CLEARING NOTED
THROUGHOUT UPPER MS VALLEY REGION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
80-100M/12 HR HEIGHT RISE CENTROID OVER NERN MN TO INTENSIFYING TO
120-140M RISES OVR FAR SRN IN BY 09 UTC. WHILE LESSER RISES FOR
CWA...INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOTION AND LESSENING OF LAKE INFLUENCE PER LIGHTENING/BACKING
FLOW WITH THERMAL LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS BECOMING MODEST/AT BEST
LOWER TEENS BY 03 UTC SUSPECT NAM CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS NWRN/WRN
CWA A BIT PESSIMISTIC...WITH COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM HIGH END MVFR TO
LIKELY BECOMES INCREASINGLY RIDDLED WITH HOLES AND EVENTUAL
SCATTERING OUT IN THIS AREA BY DAYBREAK. A MORE EASILY ATTAINABLE
CLEARING LIKELY REMAINDER OF CWA OUTSIDE OF LAKE INFLUENCE AND
DRY/COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM INTERIOR LOWER MICHIGAN. PRESENCE OF
925MB THERMAL TROF /ON ORDER OF M2-M4C/ THROUGH EASTERN CWA
SUGGESTS LOWEST TEMPS HERE...AND HAVE UNDERCUT EVEN LOWEST OF MOS
TEMPS. DECENT INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL RETURN FLOW BY AFTERNOON
SUGGESTS DIURNAL PLUS RISES ATTAINABLE WITH MINOR GRADIENT
MODIFICATION PER NEWD THERMAL TROF LIFTOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ONE MORE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH IN
NW FLOW WAVE TRAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO
LOOK DECENT GIVEN AMPLIFYING 60-80 METER HEIGHT FALL CENTROID
TRACK SE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MOISTURE RETURN HOWEVER REMAINS
LESS IMPRESSIVE AND LIKELY MORE FOCUSED/CONVERGENT OVER OR JUST
EAST OF OUR EASTERN ZONES. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED MORE BROADBRUSH
LOW-MID CHANCE POPS (HIGHEST EAST) DURING THIS TIME. RENEWED
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IN VEERED POST-FRONTAL CAA REGIME
MAY SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/SPRINKLES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN MID-LATE WEEK IN TANDEM
WITH SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF A CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF QUIET WX AND MODERATING
TEMPS BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CLOUD COVER SLOWLY CONTINUING TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
KSBN NOW ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF BKN STRATUS DECK. AT
KFWA...PROGRESS OF MIXING OF STRATUS HAS BEEN MORE STUBBORN
RESULTING IN NEED TO EXTEND MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER. AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN STILL EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TOWARDS MORNING.

DAYLIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WITH WINDS
INCREASING SOMEWHAT AS FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING TONIGHT. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY STREAM IN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AT KSBN BUT HAVE LEFT OUT FOR THE
TIME BEING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ005>009-
     016>018-024>027-032>034.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR INZ003-
     004-012>015-020-022-023.

MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ078>081.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077.

OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 182312
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
712 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 614 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
USHERING IN COLD DRY AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM, CLOUDS DECREASE, AND TEMPERATURES DROP
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN AFFECT FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION AND A FROST ADVISORY IS IN
AFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION. TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EVENING WORDING TO COVER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE/PUSH SEWD THROUGH CWA...IN WAKE OF POTENT
TROF AXIS /CURRENTLY WRN LK ERIE TO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS DRIVING
RAPIDLY THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AND
PHASING TO NEUTRAL AXIS LONGWAVE TROF CENTERED ACROSS QUEBEC/EAST
OF JAMES BAY. RAPID SOUTHEASTWARD ROTATION AIDED BY LIFTOUT OF
POST TROPICAL GONZALO THROUGH NORTHERN ATL. NEXT ISSUE REVOLVES
AROUND TEMPERATURES/FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. RAPID CLEARING NOTED
THROUGHOUT UPPER MS VALLEY REGION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
80-100M/12 HR HEIGHT RISE CENTROID OVER NERN MN TO INTENSIFYING TO
120-140M RISES OVR FAR SRN IN BY 09 UTC. WHILE LESSER RISES FOR
CWA...INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOTION AND LESSENING OF LAKE INFLUENCE PER LIGHTENING/BACKING
FLOW WITH THERMAL LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS BECOMING MODEST/AT BEST
LOWER TEENS BY 03 UTC SUSPECT NAM CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS NWRN/WRN
CWA A BIT PESSIMISTIC...WITH COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM HIGH END MVFR TO
LIKELY BECOMES INCREASINGLY RIDDLED WITH HOLES AND EVENTUAL
SCATTERING OUT IN THIS AREA BY DAYBREAK. A MORE EASILY ATTAINABLE
CLEARING LIKELY REMAINDER OF CWA OUTSIDE OF LAKE INFLUENCE AND
DRY/COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM INTERIOR LOWER MICHIGAN. PRESENCE OF
925MB THERMAL TROF /ON ORDER OF M2-M4C/ THROUGH EASTERN CWA
SUGGESTS LOWEST TEMPS HERE...AND HAVE UNDERCUT EVEN LOWEST OF MOS
TEMPS. DECENT INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL RETURN FLOW BY AFTERNOON
SUGGESTS DIURNAL PLUS RISES ATTAINABLE WITH MINOR GRADIENT
MODIFICATION PER NEWD THERMAL TROF LIFTOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ONE MORE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH IN
NW FLOW WAVE TRAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO
LOOK DECENT GIVEN AMPLIFYING 60-80 METER HEIGHT FALL CENTROID
TRACK SE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MOISTURE RETURN HOWEVER REMAINS
LESS IMPRESSIVE AND LIKELY MORE FOCUSED/CONVERGENT OVER OR JUST
EAST OF OUR EASTERN ZONES. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED MORE BROADBRUSH
LOW-MID CHANCE POPS (HIGHEST EAST) DURING THIS TIME. RENEWED
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IN VEERED POST-FRONTAL CAA REGIME
MAY SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/SPRINKLES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN MID-LATE WEEK IN TANDEM
WITH SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF A CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF QUIET WX AND MODERATING
TEMPS BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUD DECK MOVG INTO NE IL/SRN MI EARLY THIS
EVE... THOUGH BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT STRATO CU PERSISTING OVER ERN
LAKE MICHIGAN. ARW BUFR SOUNDINGS LOOK MORE IN LINE WITH THE
CLEARING TRENDS AND PREFERRED OVER NAM/HRRR/LOCAL WRF WHICH LEAVE LOW
LEVELS SATURATED OVER OUR AREA MUCH LONGER. THUS... CONTD PREVIOUS
FCST OF LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RIDGE
OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO INDIANA TONIGHT ALLOWING NW WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SWLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE SE AND ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE UPR
MIDWEST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ005>009-
     016>018-024>027-032>034.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     SUNDAY FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020-022-023.

MI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ078>081.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ077.

OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 182312
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
712 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 614 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
USHERING IN COLD DRY AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM, CLOUDS DECREASE, AND TEMPERATURES DROP
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN AFFECT FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION AND A FROST ADVISORY IS IN
AFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION. TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EVENING WORDING TO COVER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE/PUSH SEWD THROUGH CWA...IN WAKE OF POTENT
TROF AXIS /CURRENTLY WRN LK ERIE TO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS DRIVING
RAPIDLY THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AND
PHASING TO NEUTRAL AXIS LONGWAVE TROF CENTERED ACROSS QUEBEC/EAST
OF JAMES BAY. RAPID SOUTHEASTWARD ROTATION AIDED BY LIFTOUT OF
POST TROPICAL GONZALO THROUGH NORTHERN ATL. NEXT ISSUE REVOLVES
AROUND TEMPERATURES/FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. RAPID CLEARING NOTED
THROUGHOUT UPPER MS VALLEY REGION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
80-100M/12 HR HEIGHT RISE CENTROID OVER NERN MN TO INTENSIFYING TO
120-140M RISES OVR FAR SRN IN BY 09 UTC. WHILE LESSER RISES FOR
CWA...INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOTION AND LESSENING OF LAKE INFLUENCE PER LIGHTENING/BACKING
FLOW WITH THERMAL LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS BECOMING MODEST/AT BEST
LOWER TEENS BY 03 UTC SUSPECT NAM CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS NWRN/WRN
CWA A BIT PESSIMISTIC...WITH COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM HIGH END MVFR TO
LIKELY BECOMES INCREASINGLY RIDDLED WITH HOLES AND EVENTUAL
SCATTERING OUT IN THIS AREA BY DAYBREAK. A MORE EASILY ATTAINABLE
CLEARING LIKELY REMAINDER OF CWA OUTSIDE OF LAKE INFLUENCE AND
DRY/COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM INTERIOR LOWER MICHIGAN. PRESENCE OF
925MB THERMAL TROF /ON ORDER OF M2-M4C/ THROUGH EASTERN CWA
SUGGESTS LOWEST TEMPS HERE...AND HAVE UNDERCUT EVEN LOWEST OF MOS
TEMPS. DECENT INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL RETURN FLOW BY AFTERNOON
SUGGESTS DIURNAL PLUS RISES ATTAINABLE WITH MINOR GRADIENT
MODIFICATION PER NEWD THERMAL TROF LIFTOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ONE MORE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH IN
NW FLOW WAVE TRAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO
LOOK DECENT GIVEN AMPLIFYING 60-80 METER HEIGHT FALL CENTROID
TRACK SE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MOISTURE RETURN HOWEVER REMAINS
LESS IMPRESSIVE AND LIKELY MORE FOCUSED/CONVERGENT OVER OR JUST
EAST OF OUR EASTERN ZONES. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED MORE BROADBRUSH
LOW-MID CHANCE POPS (HIGHEST EAST) DURING THIS TIME. RENEWED
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IN VEERED POST-FRONTAL CAA REGIME
MAY SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/SPRINKLES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN MID-LATE WEEK IN TANDEM
WITH SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF A CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF QUIET WX AND MODERATING
TEMPS BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUD DECK MOVG INTO NE IL/SRN MI EARLY THIS
EVE... THOUGH BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT STRATO CU PERSISTING OVER ERN
LAKE MICHIGAN. ARW BUFR SOUNDINGS LOOK MORE IN LINE WITH THE
CLEARING TRENDS AND PREFERRED OVER NAM/HRRR/LOCAL WRF WHICH LEAVE LOW
LEVELS SATURATED OVER OUR AREA MUCH LONGER. THUS... CONTD PREVIOUS
FCST OF LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RIDGE
OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO INDIANA TONIGHT ALLOWING NW WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SWLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE SE AND ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE UPR
MIDWEST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ005>009-
     016>018-024>027-032>034.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     SUNDAY FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020-022-023.

MI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ078>081.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ077.

OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 182222
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
622 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 614 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
USHERING IN COLD DRY AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM, CLOUDS DECREASE, AND TEMPERATURES DROP
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN AFFECT FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION AND A FROST ADVISORY IS IN
AFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION. TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EVENING WORDING TO COVER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE/PUSH SEWD THROUGH CWA...IN WAKE OF POTENT
TROF AXIS /CURRENTLY WRN LK ERIE TO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS DRIVING
RAPIDLY THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AND
PHASING TO NEUTRAL AXIS LONGWAVE TROF CENTERED ACROSS QUEBEC/EAST
OF JAMES BAY. RAPID SOUTHEASTWARD ROTATION AIDED BY LIFTOUT OF
POST TROPICAL GONZALO THROUGH NORTHERN ATL. NEXT ISSUE REVOLVES
AROUND TEMPERATURES/FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. RAPID CLEARING NOTED
THROUGHOUT UPPER MS VALLEY REGION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
80-100M/12 HR HEIGHT RISE CENTROID OVER NERN MN TO INTENSIFYING TO
120-140M RISES OVR FAR SRN IN BY 09 UTC. WHILE LESSER RISES FOR
CWA...INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOITION AND LESSENING OF LAKE INFLUENCE PER LIGHTENING/BACKING
FLOW WITH THERMAL LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS BECOMING MODEST/AT BEST
LOWER TEENS BY 03 UTC SUSPECT NAM CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS NWRN/WRN
CWA A BIT PESSIMISTIC...WITH COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM HIGH END MVFR TO
LIKELY BECOMES INCRESINGLY RIDDLED WITH HOLES AND EVENTUAL
SCATTERING OUT IN THIS AREA BY DAYBREAK. A MORE EASILY ATTAINABLE
CLEARING LIKELY REMAINDER OF CWA OUTSIDE OF LAKE INFLUENCE AND
DRY/COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM INTERIOR LOWER MICHIGAN. PRESENCE OF
925MB THERMAL TROF /ON ORDER OF M2-M4C/ THROUGH EASTERN CWA
SUGGESTS LOWEST TEMPS HERE...AND HAVE UNDERCUCT EVEN LOWEST OF MOS
TEMPS. DECENT INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL RETURN FLOW BY AFTERNOON
SUGGESTS DIURNAL PLUS RISES ATTAINABLE WITH MINOR GRADIENT
MODIFICATION PER NEWD THERMAL TROF LIFTOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ONE MORE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH IN
NW FLOW WAVE TRAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO
LOOK DECENT GIVEN AMPLIFYING 60-80 METER HEIGHT FALL CENTROID
TRACK SE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MOISTURE RETURN HOWEVER REMAINS
LESS IMPRESSIVE AND LIKELY MORE FOCUSED/CONVERGENT OVER OR JUST
EAST OF OUR EASTERN ZONES. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED MORE BROADBRUSH
LOW-MID CHANCE POPS (HIGHEST EAST) DURING THIS TIME. RENEWED
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IN VEERED POST-FRONTAL CAA REGIME
MAY SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/SPRINKLES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN MID-LATE WEEK IN TANDEM
WITH SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF A CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF QUIET WX AND MODERATING
TEMPS BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

PRIMARILY HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO DROP SEWD INTO OHIO VALLEY BY
THIS EVENING. LAKE ENHANCED SHRA MOST LIKELY INVOF KSBN...ALBEIT
MOSTLY LIGHT INTENSITY. SHRA COVERAGE/INTENSITY TO RAPIDLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD INTO SWRN
GRTLKS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ005>009-
     016>018-024>027-032>034.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     SUNDAY FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020-022-023.

MI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ078>081.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ077.

OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 182222
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
622 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 614 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
USHERING IN COLD DRY AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM, CLOUDS DECREASE, AND TEMPERATURES DROP
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN AFFECT FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION AND A FROST ADVISORY IS IN
AFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION. TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EVENING WORDING TO COVER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE/PUSH SEWD THROUGH CWA...IN WAKE OF POTENT
TROF AXIS /CURRENTLY WRN LK ERIE TO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS DRIVING
RAPIDLY THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AND
PHASING TO NEUTRAL AXIS LONGWAVE TROF CENTERED ACROSS QUEBEC/EAST
OF JAMES BAY. RAPID SOUTHEASTWARD ROTATION AIDED BY LIFTOUT OF
POST TROPICAL GONZALO THROUGH NORTHERN ATL. NEXT ISSUE REVOLVES
AROUND TEMPERATURES/FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. RAPID CLEARING NOTED
THROUGHOUT UPPER MS VALLEY REGION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
80-100M/12 HR HEIGHT RISE CENTROID OVER NERN MN TO INTENSIFYING TO
120-140M RISES OVR FAR SRN IN BY 09 UTC. WHILE LESSER RISES FOR
CWA...INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOITION AND LESSENING OF LAKE INFLUENCE PER LIGHTENING/BACKING
FLOW WITH THERMAL LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS BECOMING MODEST/AT BEST
LOWER TEENS BY 03 UTC SUSPECT NAM CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS NWRN/WRN
CWA A BIT PESSIMISTIC...WITH COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM HIGH END MVFR TO
LIKELY BECOMES INCRESINGLY RIDDLED WITH HOLES AND EVENTUAL
SCATTERING OUT IN THIS AREA BY DAYBREAK. A MORE EASILY ATTAINABLE
CLEARING LIKELY REMAINDER OF CWA OUTSIDE OF LAKE INFLUENCE AND
DRY/COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM INTERIOR LOWER MICHIGAN. PRESENCE OF
925MB THERMAL TROF /ON ORDER OF M2-M4C/ THROUGH EASTERN CWA
SUGGESTS LOWEST TEMPS HERE...AND HAVE UNDERCUCT EVEN LOWEST OF MOS
TEMPS. DECENT INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL RETURN FLOW BY AFTERNOON
SUGGESTS DIURNAL PLUS RISES ATTAINABLE WITH MINOR GRADIENT
MODIFICATION PER NEWD THERMAL TROF LIFTOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ONE MORE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH IN
NW FLOW WAVE TRAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO
LOOK DECENT GIVEN AMPLIFYING 60-80 METER HEIGHT FALL CENTROID
TRACK SE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MOISTURE RETURN HOWEVER REMAINS
LESS IMPRESSIVE AND LIKELY MORE FOCUSED/CONVERGENT OVER OR JUST
EAST OF OUR EASTERN ZONES. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED MORE BROADBRUSH
LOW-MID CHANCE POPS (HIGHEST EAST) DURING THIS TIME. RENEWED
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IN VEERED POST-FRONTAL CAA REGIME
MAY SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/SPRINKLES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN MID-LATE WEEK IN TANDEM
WITH SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF A CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF QUIET WX AND MODERATING
TEMPS BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

PRIMARILY HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO DROP SEWD INTO OHIO VALLEY BY
THIS EVENING. LAKE ENHANCED SHRA MOST LIKELY INVOF KSBN...ALBEIT
MOSTLY LIGHT INTENSITY. SHRA COVERAGE/INTENSITY TO RAPIDLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD INTO SWRN
GRTLKS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ005>009-
     016>018-024>027-032>034.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     SUNDAY FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020-022-023.

MI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ078>081.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ077.

OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 182005
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
405 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

RAIN SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS...SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS MAY KEEP LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EVENING WORDING TO COVER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE/PUSH SEWD THROUGH CWA...IN WAKE OF POTENT
TROF AXIS /CURRENTLY WRN LK ERIE TO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS DRIVING
RAPIDLY THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AND
PHASING TO NEUTRAL AXIS LONGWAVE TROF CENTERED ACROSS QUEBEC/EAST
OF JAMES BAY. RAPID SOUTHEASTWARD ROTATION AIDED BY LIFTOUT OF
POST TROPICAL GONZALO THROUGH NORTHERN ATL. NEXT ISSUE REVOLVES
AROUND TEMPERATURES/FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. RAPID CLEARING NOTED
THROUGHOUT UPPER MS VALLEY REGION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
80-100M/12 HR HEIGHT RISE CENTROID OVER NERN MN TO INTENSIFYING TO
120-140M RISES OVR FAR SRN IN BY 09 UTC. WHILE LESSER RISES FOR
CWA...INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOITION AND LESSENING OF LAKE INFLUENCE PER LIGHTENING/BACKING
FLOW WITH THERMAL LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS BECOMING MODEST/AT BEST
LOWER TEENS BY 03 UTC SUSPECT NAM CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS NWRN/WRN
CWA A BIT PESSIMISTIC...WITH COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM HIGH END MVFR TO
LIKELY BECOMES INCRESINGLY RIDDLED WITH HOLES AND EVENTUAL
SCATTERING OUT IN THIS AREA BY DAYBREAK. A MORE EASILY ATTAINABLE
CLEARING LIKELY REMAINDER OF CWA OUTSIDE OF LAKE INFLUENCE AND
DRY/COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM INTERIOR LOWER MICHIGAN. PRESENCE OF
925MB THERMAL TROF /ON ORDER OF M2-M4C/ THROUGH EASTERN CWA
SUGGESTS LOWEST TEMPS HERE...AND HAVE UNDERCUCT EVEN LOWEST OF MOS
TEMPS. DECENT INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL RETURN FLOW BY AFTERNOON
SUGGESTS DIURNAL PLUS RISES ATTAINABLE WITH MINOR GRADIENT
MODIFICATION PER NEWD THERMAL TROF LIFTOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ONE MORE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH IN
NW FLOW WAVE TRAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO
LOOK DECENT GIVEN AMPLIFYING 60-80 METER HEIGHT FALL CENTROID
TRACK SE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MOISTURE RETURN HOWEVER REMAINS
LESS IMPRESSIVE AND LIKELY MORE FOCUSED/CONVERGENT OVER OR JUST
EAST OF OUR EASTERN ZONES. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED MORE BROADBRUSH
LOW-MID CHANCE POPS (HIGHEST EAST) DURING THIS TIME. RENEWED
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IN VEERED POST-FRONTAL CAA REGIME
MAY SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/SPRINKLES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN MID-LATE WEEK IN TANDEM
WITH SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF A CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF QUIET WX AND MODERATING
TEMPS BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

PRIMARILY HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO DROP SEWD INTO OHIO VALLEY BY
THIS EVENING. LAKE ENHANCED SHRA MOST LIKELY INVOF KSBN...ALBEIT
MOSTLY LIGHT INTENSITY. SHRA COVERAGE/INTENSITY TO RAPIDLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD INTO SWRN
GRTLKS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ005>009-
     016>018-024>027-032>034.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     SUNDAY FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020-022-023.

MI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ078>081.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ077.

OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 182005
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
405 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

RAIN SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS...SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS MAY KEEP LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

EVENING WORDING TO COVER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE/PUSH SEWD THROUGH CWA...IN WAKE OF POTENT
TROF AXIS /CURRENTLY WRN LK ERIE TO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS DRIVING
RAPIDLY THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AND
PHASING TO NEUTRAL AXIS LONGWAVE TROF CENTERED ACROSS QUEBEC/EAST
OF JAMES BAY. RAPID SOUTHEASTWARD ROTATION AIDED BY LIFTOUT OF
POST TROPICAL GONZALO THROUGH NORTHERN ATL. NEXT ISSUE REVOLVES
AROUND TEMPERATURES/FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. RAPID CLEARING NOTED
THROUGHOUT UPPER MS VALLEY REGION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
80-100M/12 HR HEIGHT RISE CENTROID OVER NERN MN TO INTENSIFYING TO
120-140M RISES OVR FAR SRN IN BY 09 UTC. WHILE LESSER RISES FOR
CWA...INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOITION AND LESSENING OF LAKE INFLUENCE PER LIGHTENING/BACKING
FLOW WITH THERMAL LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS BECOMING MODEST/AT BEST
LOWER TEENS BY 03 UTC SUSPECT NAM CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS NWRN/WRN
CWA A BIT PESSIMISTIC...WITH COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM HIGH END MVFR TO
LIKELY BECOMES INCRESINGLY RIDDLED WITH HOLES AND EVENTUAL
SCATTERING OUT IN THIS AREA BY DAYBREAK. A MORE EASILY ATTAINABLE
CLEARING LIKELY REMAINDER OF CWA OUTSIDE OF LAKE INFLUENCE AND
DRY/COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM INTERIOR LOWER MICHIGAN. PRESENCE OF
925MB THERMAL TROF /ON ORDER OF M2-M4C/ THROUGH EASTERN CWA
SUGGESTS LOWEST TEMPS HERE...AND HAVE UNDERCUCT EVEN LOWEST OF MOS
TEMPS. DECENT INSOLATION AND EVENTUAL RETURN FLOW BY AFTERNOON
SUGGESTS DIURNAL PLUS RISES ATTAINABLE WITH MINOR GRADIENT
MODIFICATION PER NEWD THERMAL TROF LIFTOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

ONE MORE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH IN
NW FLOW WAVE TRAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO
LOOK DECENT GIVEN AMPLIFYING 60-80 METER HEIGHT FALL CENTROID
TRACK SE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MOISTURE RETURN HOWEVER REMAINS
LESS IMPRESSIVE AND LIKELY MORE FOCUSED/CONVERGENT OVER OR JUST
EAST OF OUR EASTERN ZONES. AS A RESULT MAINTAINED MORE BROADBRUSH
LOW-MID CHANCE POPS (HIGHEST EAST) DURING THIS TIME. RENEWED
MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IN VEERED POST-FRONTAL CAA REGIME
MAY SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/SPRINKLES INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN MID-LATE WEEK IN TANDEM
WITH SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF A CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF QUIET WX AND MODERATING
TEMPS BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

PRIMARILY HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO DROP SEWD INTO OHIO VALLEY BY
THIS EVENING. LAKE ENHANCED SHRA MOST LIKELY INVOF KSBN...ALBEIT
MOSTLY LIGHT INTENSITY. SHRA COVERAGE/INTENSITY TO RAPIDLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD INTO SWRN
GRTLKS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR INZ005>009-
     016>018-024>027-032>034.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     SUNDAY FOR INZ003-004-012>015-020-022-023.

MI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ078>081.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ077.

OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 181747
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
147 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

RAIN SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS...SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS MAY KEEP LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

STRENGTH OF DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER
FOCUSED ACROSS NERN IL ATTM...ALONG WITH COLLOCATED DEEPER
MOISTURE PER WV IMAGERY...SUGGESTS ARDENT RAMP OF POPS FOR
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON IN ORDER. NEAR STEADY TEMPS AS WELL WITH
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS DOWNARD LEANING TOWARDS NEAR TERM MODEL
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TWO FOLD CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT
BEING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT/INITIAL SHORTWAVE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
COLDER AIR CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. NEXT PIECE OF
ENERGY WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS ALONG WITH 850
MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW ZERO WILL ALLOW FOR A UPTICK IN LAKE
EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARDS 12Z. UPSTREAM
RADARS SHOWING A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS TAKING SHAPE NOW AND
THIS SHOULD EXPAND FURTHER WITH PEAK TIME FRAME IN THE 12 TO 18Z
PERIOD. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET OF HIGHEST POPS CLOSER TO THE 12Z
TIME FRAME AND EXPANDED INLAND A BIT WITH SUBSEQUENT EXPANSION OF
ALL POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE IN MOST LOCATIONS. VERY LITTLE DIURNAL SWING IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM NE.

NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKE INTO THIS EVENING WITH 925 MB RH
PLUMES SHOWING GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT RH VALUES DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THIS AREA
SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LOOK QUITE LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS ALL POINTING TOWARDS
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IN AREAS TO WIDESPREAD
FROST AND AFTER MUCH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL
HOIST FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DROP TO 33
DEGREES OR LOWER FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCALLY COOLER
POTENTIAL (28 TO 32 DEGREE RANGE) IN BOUNDARY LAYER VS SENSOR
LEVEL MEASUREMENT. MOST IF NOT ENTIRE CWA WILL LIKELY WARRANT
SOME SORT OF HEADLINE BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AMOUNT AND TIMING
STILL A HUGE ISSUE...DON`T WANT TO LOCK DAY SHIFT INTO
ADVISORY/WARNING SITUATION DESPITE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE SETUP IN
PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK PROVIDING
FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ON SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH DEPTH OF LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SHALLOW WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. SOME BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING WITH APPROACH OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH SHOULD YIELD
SOME EASTWARD ADVECTION OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS. OUTSIDE OF
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING...BUT STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD ALLOW FOR MID
LEVEL DECK TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS ON SUNDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN MIXING HEIGHTS LIMITED TO AROUND 900 HPA WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT HIGHS FROM LOWER 50S FAR NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHWEST.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW
WAVE SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD COMMENCE ON SUNDAY
ALONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE...WITH THIS
WEAK MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL BAROCLINICITY SHOULD ALSO
EXIST WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH
MAY INDUCE SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE MARGINAL
ACROSS AREAS PRONE TO THIS ELEVATED FORCING HOWEVER. GIVEN
COMBINATION OF ABOVE FACTORS HAVE MAINTAINED BROADBRUSH LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO INCREASE BY EARLY MONDAY AS UPSTREAM WAVE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ALTHOUGH LATEST
ITERATIONS OF THE EC SEEM TO BE A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE AND MORE
DELAYED IN THIS REGARD. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS THAN PREVIOUS
INDICATIONS...SO HAVE HELD TO INHERITED HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS
THE EAST IN NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF
UPPER TROUGH. PRECIP MAY END AS A PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA. STILL SOME INDICATIONS OF BETTER PHASING OF UPPER
SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEND TO ISOLD
SHOWER POTENTIAL LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST...SO NO CHANGES MADE
IN THIS REGARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MORE
PHASED UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATES ACROSS EASTERN CONUS LATER IN THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF CENTRAL
CONUS UPPER RIDGING. MORE PRONOUNCED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

PRIMARILY HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO DROP SEWD INTO OHIO VALLEY BY
THIS EVENING. LAKE ENHANCED SHRA MOST LIKELY INVOF KSBN...ALBEIT
MOSTLY LIGHT INTENSITY. SHRA COVERAGE/INTENSITY TO RAPIDLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD INTO SWRN
GRTLKS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     INZ005>009-016>018-024>027-032>034.

MI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MIZ078>081.

OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MURPHY
SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 181747
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
147 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

RAIN SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS...SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS MAY KEEP LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

STRENGTH OF DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER
FOCUSED ACROSS NERN IL ATTM...ALONG WITH COLLOCATED DEEPER
MOISTURE PER WV IMAGERY...SUGGESTS ARDENT RAMP OF POPS FOR
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON IN ORDER. NEAR STEADY TEMPS AS WELL WITH
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS DOWNARD LEANING TOWARDS NEAR TERM MODEL
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TWO FOLD CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT
BEING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT/INITIAL SHORTWAVE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
COLDER AIR CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. NEXT PIECE OF
ENERGY WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS ALONG WITH 850
MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW ZERO WILL ALLOW FOR A UPTICK IN LAKE
EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARDS 12Z. UPSTREAM
RADARS SHOWING A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS TAKING SHAPE NOW AND
THIS SHOULD EXPAND FURTHER WITH PEAK TIME FRAME IN THE 12 TO 18Z
PERIOD. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET OF HIGHEST POPS CLOSER TO THE 12Z
TIME FRAME AND EXPANDED INLAND A BIT WITH SUBSEQUENT EXPANSION OF
ALL POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE IN MOST LOCATIONS. VERY LITTLE DIURNAL SWING IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM NE.

NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKE INTO THIS EVENING WITH 925 MB RH
PLUMES SHOWING GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT RH VALUES DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THIS AREA
SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LOOK QUITE LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS ALL POINTING TOWARDS
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IN AREAS TO WIDESPREAD
FROST AND AFTER MUCH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL
HOIST FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DROP TO 33
DEGREES OR LOWER FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCALLY COOLER
POTENTIAL (28 TO 32 DEGREE RANGE) IN BOUNDARY LAYER VS SENSOR
LEVEL MEASUREMENT. MOST IF NOT ENTIRE CWA WILL LIKELY WARRANT
SOME SORT OF HEADLINE BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AMOUNT AND TIMING
STILL A HUGE ISSUE...DON`T WANT TO LOCK DAY SHIFT INTO
ADVISORY/WARNING SITUATION DESPITE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE SETUP IN
PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK PROVIDING
FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ON SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH DEPTH OF LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SHALLOW WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. SOME BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING WITH APPROACH OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH SHOULD YIELD
SOME EASTWARD ADVECTION OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS. OUTSIDE OF
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING...BUT STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD ALLOW FOR MID
LEVEL DECK TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS ON SUNDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN MIXING HEIGHTS LIMITED TO AROUND 900 HPA WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT HIGHS FROM LOWER 50S FAR NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHWEST.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW
WAVE SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD COMMENCE ON SUNDAY
ALONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE...WITH THIS
WEAK MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL BAROCLINICITY SHOULD ALSO
EXIST WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH
MAY INDUCE SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE MARGINAL
ACROSS AREAS PRONE TO THIS ELEVATED FORCING HOWEVER. GIVEN
COMBINATION OF ABOVE FACTORS HAVE MAINTAINED BROADBRUSH LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO INCREASE BY EARLY MONDAY AS UPSTREAM WAVE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ALTHOUGH LATEST
ITERATIONS OF THE EC SEEM TO BE A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE AND MORE
DELAYED IN THIS REGARD. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS THAN PREVIOUS
INDICATIONS...SO HAVE HELD TO INHERITED HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS
THE EAST IN NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF
UPPER TROUGH. PRECIP MAY END AS A PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA. STILL SOME INDICATIONS OF BETTER PHASING OF UPPER
SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEND TO ISOLD
SHOWER POTENTIAL LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST...SO NO CHANGES MADE
IN THIS REGARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MORE
PHASED UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATES ACROSS EASTERN CONUS LATER IN THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF CENTRAL
CONUS UPPER RIDGING. MORE PRONOUNCED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

PRIMARILY HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO DROP SEWD INTO OHIO VALLEY BY
THIS EVENING. LAKE ENHANCED SHRA MOST LIKELY INVOF KSBN...ALBEIT
MOSTLY LIGHT INTENSITY. SHRA COVERAGE/INTENSITY TO RAPIDLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD INTO SWRN
GRTLKS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     INZ005>009-016>018-024>027-032>034.

MI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MIZ078>081.

OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MURPHY
SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 181747
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
147 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

RAIN SHOWERS AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS...SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS MAY KEEP LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

STRENGTH OF DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER
FOCUSED ACROSS NERN IL ATTM...ALONG WITH COLLOCATED DEEPER
MOISTURE PER WV IMAGERY...SUGGESTS ARDENT RAMP OF POPS FOR
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON IN ORDER. NEAR STEADY TEMPS AS WELL WITH
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS DOWNARD LEANING TOWARDS NEAR TERM MODEL
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TWO FOLD CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT
BEING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT/INITIAL SHORTWAVE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
COLDER AIR CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. NEXT PIECE OF
ENERGY WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS ALONG WITH 850
MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW ZERO WILL ALLOW FOR A UPTICK IN LAKE
EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARDS 12Z. UPSTREAM
RADARS SHOWING A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS TAKING SHAPE NOW AND
THIS SHOULD EXPAND FURTHER WITH PEAK TIME FRAME IN THE 12 TO 18Z
PERIOD. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET OF HIGHEST POPS CLOSER TO THE 12Z
TIME FRAME AND EXPANDED INLAND A BIT WITH SUBSEQUENT EXPANSION OF
ALL POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE IN MOST LOCATIONS. VERY LITTLE DIURNAL SWING IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM NE.

NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKE INTO THIS EVENING WITH 925 MB RH
PLUMES SHOWING GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT RH VALUES DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THIS AREA
SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LOOK QUITE LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS ALL POINTING TOWARDS
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IN AREAS TO WIDESPREAD
FROST AND AFTER MUCH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL
HOIST FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DROP TO 33
DEGREES OR LOWER FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCALLY COOLER
POTENTIAL (28 TO 32 DEGREE RANGE) IN BOUNDARY LAYER VS SENSOR
LEVEL MEASUREMENT. MOST IF NOT ENTIRE CWA WILL LIKELY WARRANT
SOME SORT OF HEADLINE BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AMOUNT AND TIMING
STILL A HUGE ISSUE...DON`T WANT TO LOCK DAY SHIFT INTO
ADVISORY/WARNING SITUATION DESPITE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE SETUP IN
PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK PROVIDING
FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ON SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH DEPTH OF LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SHALLOW WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. SOME BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING WITH APPROACH OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH SHOULD YIELD
SOME EASTWARD ADVECTION OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS. OUTSIDE OF
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING...BUT STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD ALLOW FOR MID
LEVEL DECK TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS ON SUNDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN MIXING HEIGHTS LIMITED TO AROUND 900 HPA WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT HIGHS FROM LOWER 50S FAR NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHWEST.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW
WAVE SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD COMMENCE ON SUNDAY
ALONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE...WITH THIS
WEAK MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL BAROCLINICITY SHOULD ALSO
EXIST WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH
MAY INDUCE SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE MARGINAL
ACROSS AREAS PRONE TO THIS ELEVATED FORCING HOWEVER. GIVEN
COMBINATION OF ABOVE FACTORS HAVE MAINTAINED BROADBRUSH LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO INCREASE BY EARLY MONDAY AS UPSTREAM WAVE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ALTHOUGH LATEST
ITERATIONS OF THE EC SEEM TO BE A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE AND MORE
DELAYED IN THIS REGARD. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS THAN PREVIOUS
INDICATIONS...SO HAVE HELD TO INHERITED HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS
THE EAST IN NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF
UPPER TROUGH. PRECIP MAY END AS A PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA. STILL SOME INDICATIONS OF BETTER PHASING OF UPPER
SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEND TO ISOLD
SHOWER POTENTIAL LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST...SO NO CHANGES MADE
IN THIS REGARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MORE
PHASED UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATES ACROSS EASTERN CONUS LATER IN THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF CENTRAL
CONUS UPPER RIDGING. MORE PRONOUNCED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

PRIMARILY HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO DROP SEWD INTO OHIO VALLEY BY
THIS EVENING. LAKE ENHANCED SHRA MOST LIKELY INVOF KSBN...ALBEIT
MOSTLY LIGHT INTENSITY. SHRA COVERAGE/INTENSITY TO RAPIDLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD INTO SWRN
GRTLKS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     INZ005>009-016>018-024>027-032>034.

MI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MIZ078>081.

OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MURPHY
SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 181448
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1048 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS...SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALLOWING FOR COLD TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY
KEEP LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA
AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

STRENGTH OF DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER
FOCUSED ACROSS NERN IL ATTM...ALONG WITH COLLOCATED DEEPER
MOISTURE PER WV IMAGERY...SUGGESTS ARDENT RAMP OF POPS FOR
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON IN ORDER. NEAR STEADY TEMPS AS WELL WITH
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS DOWNARD LEANING TOWARDS NEAR TERM MODEL
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TWO FOLD CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT
BEING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT/INITIAL SHORTWAVE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
COLDER AIR CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. NEXT PIECE OF
ENERGY WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS ALONG WITH 850
MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW ZERO WILL ALLOW FOR A UPTICK IN LAKE
EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARDS 12Z. UPSTREAM
RADARS SHOWING A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS TAKING SHAPE NOW AND
THIS SHOULD EXPAND FURTHER WITH PEAK TIME FRAME IN THE 12 TO 18Z
PERIOD. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET OF HIGHEST POPS CLOSER TO THE 12Z
TIME FRAME AND EXPANDED INLAND A BIT WITH SUBSEQUENT EXPANSION OF
ALL POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE IN MOST LOCATIONS. VERY LITTLE DIURNAL SWING IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM NE.

NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKE INTO THIS EVENING WITH 925 MB RH
PLUMES SHOWING GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT RH VALUES DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THIS AREA
SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LOOK QUITE LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS ALL POINTING TOWARDS
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IN AREAS TO WIDESPREAD
FROST AND AFTER MUCH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL
HOIST FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DROP TO 33
DEGREES OR LOWER FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCALLY COOLER
POTENTIAL (28 TO 32 DEGREE RANGE) IN BOUNDARY LAYER VS SENSOR
LEVEL MEASUREMENT. MOST IF NOT ENTIRE CWA WILL LIKELY WARRANT
SOME SORT OF HEADLINE BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AMOUNT AND TIMING
STILL A HUGE ISSUE...DON`T WANT TO LOCK DAY SHIFT INTO
ADVISORY/WARNING SITUATION DESPITE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE SETUP IN
PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK PROVIDING
FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ON SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH DEPTH OF LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SHALLOW WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. SOME BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING WITH APPROACH OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH SHOULD YIELD
SOME EASTWARD ADVECTION OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS. OUTSIDE OF
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING...BUT STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD ALLOW FOR MID
LEVEL DECK TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS ON SUNDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN MIXING HEIGHTS LIMITED TO AROUND 900 HPA WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT HIGHS FROM LOWER 50S FAR NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHWEST.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW
WAVE SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD COMMENCE ON SUNDAY
ALONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE...WITH THIS
WEAK MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL BAROCLINICITY SHOULD ALSO
EXIST WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH
MAY INDUCE SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE MARGINAL
ACROSS AREAS PRONE TO THIS ELEVATED FORCING HOWEVER. GIVEN
COMBINATION OF ABOVE FACTORS HAVE MAINTAINED BROADBRUSH LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO INCREASE BY EARLY MONDAY AS UPSTREAM WAVE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ALTHOUGH LATEST
ITERATIONS OF THE EC SEEM TO BE A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE AND MORE
DELAYED IN THIS REGARD. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS THAN PREVIOUS
INDICATIONS...SO HAVE HELD TO INHERITED HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS
THE EAST IN NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF
UPPER TROUGH. PRECIP MAY END AS A PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA. STILL SOME INDICATIONS OF BETTER PHASING OF UPPER
SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEND TO ISOLD
SHOWER POTENTIAL LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST...SO NO CHANGES MADE
IN THIS REGARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MORE
PHASED UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATES ACROSS EASTERN CONUS LATER IN THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF CENTRAL
CONUS UPPER RIDGING. MORE PRONOUNCED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS
NORTHERN INDIANA IS SITUATED BETWEEN TWO STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVES. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE OF INTEREST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY PROGRESSION OF THIS VORT
MAX FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY TRENDING
TO VFR AT KFWA. STEEP LOW LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SUBSIDING
THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
STRENGTHENING SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING
SECONDARY WAVE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
OUTSIDE OF LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS THAT MAY AFFECT KSBN
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     INZ005>009-016>018-024>027-032>034.

MI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MIZ078>081.

OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MURPHY
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 181448
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1048 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS...SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALLOWING FOR COLD TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY
KEEP LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA
AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

STRENGTH OF DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER
FOCUSED ACROSS NERN IL ATTM...ALONG WITH COLLOCATED DEEPER
MOISTURE PER WV IMAGERY...SUGGESTS ARDENT RAMP OF POPS FOR
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON IN ORDER. NEAR STEADY TEMPS AS WELL WITH
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS DOWNARD LEANING TOWARDS NEAR TERM MODEL
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TWO FOLD CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT
BEING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT/INITIAL SHORTWAVE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
COLDER AIR CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. NEXT PIECE OF
ENERGY WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS ALONG WITH 850
MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW ZERO WILL ALLOW FOR A UPTICK IN LAKE
EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARDS 12Z. UPSTREAM
RADARS SHOWING A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS TAKING SHAPE NOW AND
THIS SHOULD EXPAND FURTHER WITH PEAK TIME FRAME IN THE 12 TO 18Z
PERIOD. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET OF HIGHEST POPS CLOSER TO THE 12Z
TIME FRAME AND EXPANDED INLAND A BIT WITH SUBSEQUENT EXPANSION OF
ALL POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE IN MOST LOCATIONS. VERY LITTLE DIURNAL SWING IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM NE.

NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKE INTO THIS EVENING WITH 925 MB RH
PLUMES SHOWING GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT RH VALUES DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THIS AREA
SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LOOK QUITE LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS ALL POINTING TOWARDS
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IN AREAS TO WIDESPREAD
FROST AND AFTER MUCH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL
HOIST FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DROP TO 33
DEGREES OR LOWER FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCALLY COOLER
POTENTIAL (28 TO 32 DEGREE RANGE) IN BOUNDARY LAYER VS SENSOR
LEVEL MEASUREMENT. MOST IF NOT ENTIRE CWA WILL LIKELY WARRANT
SOME SORT OF HEADLINE BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AMOUNT AND TIMING
STILL A HUGE ISSUE...DON`T WANT TO LOCK DAY SHIFT INTO
ADVISORY/WARNING SITUATION DESPITE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE SETUP IN
PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK PROVIDING
FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ON SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH DEPTH OF LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SHALLOW WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. SOME BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING WITH APPROACH OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH SHOULD YIELD
SOME EASTWARD ADVECTION OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS. OUTSIDE OF
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING...BUT STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD ALLOW FOR MID
LEVEL DECK TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS ON SUNDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN MIXING HEIGHTS LIMITED TO AROUND 900 HPA WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT HIGHS FROM LOWER 50S FAR NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHWEST.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW
WAVE SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD COMMENCE ON SUNDAY
ALONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE...WITH THIS
WEAK MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL BAROCLINICITY SHOULD ALSO
EXIST WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH
MAY INDUCE SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE MARGINAL
ACROSS AREAS PRONE TO THIS ELEVATED FORCING HOWEVER. GIVEN
COMBINATION OF ABOVE FACTORS HAVE MAINTAINED BROADBRUSH LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO INCREASE BY EARLY MONDAY AS UPSTREAM WAVE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ALTHOUGH LATEST
ITERATIONS OF THE EC SEEM TO BE A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE AND MORE
DELAYED IN THIS REGARD. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS THAN PREVIOUS
INDICATIONS...SO HAVE HELD TO INHERITED HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS
THE EAST IN NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF
UPPER TROUGH. PRECIP MAY END AS A PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA. STILL SOME INDICATIONS OF BETTER PHASING OF UPPER
SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEND TO ISOLD
SHOWER POTENTIAL LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST...SO NO CHANGES MADE
IN THIS REGARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MORE
PHASED UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATES ACROSS EASTERN CONUS LATER IN THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF CENTRAL
CONUS UPPER RIDGING. MORE PRONOUNCED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS
NORTHERN INDIANA IS SITUATED BETWEEN TWO STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVES. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE OF INTEREST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY PROGRESSION OF THIS VORT
MAX FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY TRENDING
TO VFR AT KFWA. STEEP LOW LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SUBSIDING
THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
STRENGTHENING SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING
SECONDARY WAVE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
OUTSIDE OF LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS THAT MAY AFFECT KSBN
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     INZ005>009-016>018-024>027-032>034.

MI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MIZ078>081.

OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MURPHY
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 181448
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1048 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS...SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALLOWING FOR COLD TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY
KEEP LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA
AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

STRENGTH OF DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER
FOCUSED ACROSS NERN IL ATTM...ALONG WITH COLLOCATED DEEPER
MOISTURE PER WV IMAGERY...SUGGESTS ARDENT RAMP OF POPS FOR
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON IN ORDER. NEAR STEADY TEMPS AS WELL WITH
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS DOWNARD LEANING TOWARDS NEAR TERM MODEL
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TWO FOLD CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT
BEING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT/INITIAL SHORTWAVE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
COLDER AIR CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. NEXT PIECE OF
ENERGY WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS ALONG WITH 850
MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW ZERO WILL ALLOW FOR A UPTICK IN LAKE
EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARDS 12Z. UPSTREAM
RADARS SHOWING A FEW NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS TAKING SHAPE NOW AND
THIS SHOULD EXPAND FURTHER WITH PEAK TIME FRAME IN THE 12 TO 18Z
PERIOD. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET OF HIGHEST POPS CLOSER TO THE 12Z
TIME FRAME AND EXPANDED INLAND A BIT WITH SUBSEQUENT EXPANSION OF
ALL POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE IN MOST LOCATIONS. VERY LITTLE DIURNAL SWING IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM NE.

NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKE INTO THIS EVENING WITH 925 MB RH
PLUMES SHOWING GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT RH VALUES DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THIS AREA
SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LOOK QUITE LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS ALL POINTING TOWARDS
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IN AREAS TO WIDESPREAD
FROST AND AFTER MUCH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL
HOIST FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DROP TO 33
DEGREES OR LOWER FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCALLY COOLER
POTENTIAL (28 TO 32 DEGREE RANGE) IN BOUNDARY LAYER VS SENSOR
LEVEL MEASUREMENT. MOST IF NOT ENTIRE CWA WILL LIKELY WARRANT
SOME SORT OF HEADLINE BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AMOUNT AND TIMING
STILL A HUGE ISSUE...DON`T WANT TO LOCK DAY SHIFT INTO
ADVISORY/WARNING SITUATION DESPITE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE SETUP IN
PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK PROVIDING
FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ON SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH DEPTH OF LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SHALLOW WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. SOME BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING WITH APPROACH OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH SHOULD YIELD
SOME EASTWARD ADVECTION OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS. OUTSIDE OF
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING...BUT STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD ALLOW FOR MID
LEVEL DECK TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS ON SUNDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN MIXING HEIGHTS LIMITED TO AROUND 900 HPA WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT HIGHS FROM LOWER 50S FAR NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S
SOUTHWEST.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW
WAVE SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD COMMENCE ON SUNDAY
ALONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE...WITH THIS
WEAK MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL BAROCLINICITY SHOULD ALSO
EXIST WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH
MAY INDUCE SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE MARGINAL
ACROSS AREAS PRONE TO THIS ELEVATED FORCING HOWEVER. GIVEN
COMBINATION OF ABOVE FACTORS HAVE MAINTAINED BROADBRUSH LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO INCREASE BY EARLY MONDAY AS UPSTREAM WAVE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ALTHOUGH LATEST
ITERATIONS OF THE EC SEEM TO BE A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE AND MORE
DELAYED IN THIS REGARD. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS THAN PREVIOUS
INDICATIONS...SO HAVE HELD TO INHERITED HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS
THE EAST IN NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF
UPPER TROUGH. PRECIP MAY END AS A PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA. STILL SOME INDICATIONS OF BETTER PHASING OF UPPER
SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEND TO ISOLD
SHOWER POTENTIAL LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST...SO NO CHANGES MADE
IN THIS REGARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MORE
PHASED UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATES ACROSS EASTERN CONUS LATER IN THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF CENTRAL
CONUS UPPER RIDGING. MORE PRONOUNCED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS
NORTHERN INDIANA IS SITUATED BETWEEN TWO STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVES. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE OF INTEREST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY PROGRESSION OF THIS VORT
MAX FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY TRENDING
TO VFR AT KFWA. STEEP LOW LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SUBSIDING
THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
STRENGTHENING SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING
SECONDARY WAVE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
OUTSIDE OF LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS THAT MAY AFFECT KSBN
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     INZ005>009-016>018-024>027-032>034.

MI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MIZ078>081.

OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MURPHY
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 181033
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
633 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS...SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALLOWING FOR COLD TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY
KEEP LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA
AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TWO FOLD CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT
BEING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT/INITIAL SHORTWAVE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
COLDER AIR CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY
WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPS
DROPPING BELOW ZERO WILL ALLOW FOR A UPTICK IN LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARDS 12Z. UPSTREAM RADARS SHOWING A FEW
NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS TAKING SHAPE NOW AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND
FURTHER WITH PEAK TIME FRAME IN THE 12 TO 18Z PERIOD. HAVE ADJUSTED
ONSET OF HIGHEST POPS CLOSER TO THE 12Z TIME FRAME AND EXPANDED
INLAND A BIT WITH SUBSEQUENT EXPANSION OF ALL POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE IN MOST LOCATIONS.
VERY LITTLE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM
NE.

NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKE INTO THIS EVENING WITH 925 MB RH
PLUMES SHOWING GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT RH VALUES DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THIS AREA SHIFTING
EAST TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS LOOK QUITE LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS ALL POINTING TOWARDS LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IN AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST AND AFTER
MUCH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOIST FREEZE WATCH
FOR AREAS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DROP TO 33 DEGREES OR LOWER FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCALLY COOLER POTENTIAL (28 TO 32
DEGREE RANGE) IN BOUNDARY LAYER VS SENSOR LEVEL MEASUREMENT. MOST IF
NOT ENTIRE CWA WILL LIKELY WARRANT SOME SORT OF HEADLINE BUT WITH
CLOUD COVER AMOUNT AND TIMING STILL A HUGE ISSUE...DON`T WANT TO
LOCK DAY SHIFT INTO ADVISORY/WARNING SITUATION DESPITE CURRENTLY
FAVORABLE SETUP IN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK PROVIDING
FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ON SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH DEPTH OF LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SHALLOW WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE.
SOME BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH
APPROACH OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH SHOULD YIELD SOME EASTWARD
ADVECTION OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING...BUT
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL DECK TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MIXING HEIGHTS
LIMITED TO AROUND 900 HPA WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS FROM LOWER 50S
FAR NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S SOUTHWEST.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SOME WEAK
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD COMMENCE ON SUNDAY ALONG LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE...WITH THIS WEAK MOISTURE AXIS
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL BAROCLINICITY SHOULD ALSO EXIST WELL DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH MAY INDUCE SOME WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE MARGINAL ACROSS AREAS PRONE TO THIS
ELEVATED FORCING HOWEVER. GIVEN COMBINATION OF ABOVE FACTORS HAVE
MAINTAINED BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO INCREASE BY EARLY MONDAY AS UPSTREAM WAVE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ALTHOUGH LATEST ITERATIONS
OF THE EC SEEM TO BE A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE AND MORE DELAYED IN
THIS REGARD. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS THAN PREVIOUS INDICATIONS...SO HAVE HELD TO
INHERITED HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE POPS WILL
NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS THE EAST IN NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES
DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH. PRECIP MAY END AS A PERIOD
OF PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. STILL SOME INDICATIONS OF BETTER
PHASING OF UPPER SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEND
TO ISOLD SHOWER POTENTIAL LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST...SO NO CHANGES
MADE IN THIS REGARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MORE
PHASED UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATES ACROSS EASTERN CONUS LATER IN THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF CENTRAL CONUS
UPPER RIDGING. MORE PRONOUNCED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS NORTHERN
INDIANA IS SITUATED BETWEEN TWO STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE OF INTEREST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY PROGRESSION OF THIS VORT MAX FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY TRENDING TO VFR AT KFWA. STEEP
LOW LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SUBSIDING THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING SECONDARY WAVE TONIGHT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING OUTSIDE OF LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS THAT MAY AFFECT KSBN THROUGH THE END OF THIS
FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     INZ005>009-016>018-024>027-032>034.

MI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MIZ078>081.

OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 180755
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
355 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS...SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALLOWING FOR COLD TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY
KEEP LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA
AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TWO FOLD CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT
BEING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT/INITIAL SHORTWAVE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
COLDER AIR CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY
WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPS
DROPPING BELOW ZERO WILL ALLOW FOR A UPTICK IN LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARDS 12Z. UPSTREAM RADARS SHOWING A FEW
NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS TAKING SHAPE NOW AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND
FURTHER WITH PEAK TIME FRAME IN THE 12 TO 18Z PERIOD. HAVE ADJUSTED
ONSET OF HIGHEST POPS CLOSER TO THE 12Z TIME FRAME AND EXPANDED
INLAND A BIT WITH SUBSEQUENT EXPANSION OF ALL POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE IN MOST LOCATIONS.
VERY LITTLE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM
NE.

NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKE INTO THIS EVENING WITH 925 MB RH
PLUMES SHOWING GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT RH VALUES DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THIS AREA SHIFTING
EAST TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS LOOK QUITE LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS ALL POINTING TOWARDS LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IN AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST AND AFTER
MUCH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOIST FREEZE WATCH
FOR AREAS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DROP TO 33 DEGREES OR LOWER FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCALLY COOLER POTENTIAL (28 TO 32
DEGREE RANGE) IN BOUNDARY LAYER VS SENSOR LEVEL MEASUREMENT. MOST IF
NOT ENTIRE CWA WILL LIKELY WARRANT SOME SORT OF HEADLINE BUT WITH
CLOUD COVER AMOUNT AND TIMING STILL A HUGE ISSUE...DON`T WANT TO
LOCK DAY SHIFT INTO ADVISORY/WARNING SITUATION DESPITE CURRENTLY
FAVORABLE SETUP IN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK PROVIDING
FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ON SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH DEPTH OF LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SHALLOW WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE.
SOME BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH
APPROACH OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH SHOULD YIELD SOME EASTWARD
ADVECTION OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING...BUT
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL DECK TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MIXING HEIGHTS
LIMITED TO AROUND 900 HPA WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS FROM LOWER 50S
FAR NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S SOUTHWEST.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SOME WEAK
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD COMMENCE ON SUNDAY ALONG LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE...WITH THIS WEAK MOISTURE AXIS
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL BAROCLINICITY SHOULD ALSO EXIST WELL DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH MAY INDUCE SOME WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE MARGINAL ACROSS AREAS PRONE TO THIS
ELEVATED FORCING HOWEVER. GIVEN COMBINATION OF ABOVE FACTORS HAVE
MAINTAINED BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO INCREASE BY EARLY MONDAY AS UPSTREAM WAVE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ALTHOUGH LATEST ITERATIONS
OF THE EC SEEM TO BE A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE AND MORE DELAYED IN
THIS REGARD. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS THAN PREVIOUS INDICATIONS...SO HAVE HELD TO
INHERITED HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE POPS WILL
NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS THE EAST IN NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES
DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH. PRECIP MAY END AS A PERIOD
OF PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. STILL SOME INDICATIONS OF BETTER
PHASING OF UPPER SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEND
TO ISOLD SHOWER POTENTIAL LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST...SO NO CHANGES
MADE IN THIS REGARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MORE
PHASED UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATES ACROSS EASTERN CONUS LATER IN THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF CENTRAL CONUS
UPPER RIDGING. MORE PRONOUNCED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPAND OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS WILL REMAIN LONGEST AT KSBN WITH VFR CIGS EVENTUALLY
TAKING SHAPE AT KFWA AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     INZ005>009-016>018-024>027-032>034.

MI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MIZ078>081.

OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 180755
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
355 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS...SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALLOWING FOR COLD TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY
KEEP LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA
AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TWO FOLD CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT
BEING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT/INITIAL SHORTWAVE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
COLDER AIR CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY
WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPS
DROPPING BELOW ZERO WILL ALLOW FOR A UPTICK IN LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARDS 12Z. UPSTREAM RADARS SHOWING A FEW
NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS TAKING SHAPE NOW AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND
FURTHER WITH PEAK TIME FRAME IN THE 12 TO 18Z PERIOD. HAVE ADJUSTED
ONSET OF HIGHEST POPS CLOSER TO THE 12Z TIME FRAME AND EXPANDED
INLAND A BIT WITH SUBSEQUENT EXPANSION OF ALL POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE IN MOST LOCATIONS.
VERY LITTLE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM
NE.

NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKE INTO THIS EVENING WITH 925 MB RH
PLUMES SHOWING GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT RH VALUES DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THIS AREA SHIFTING
EAST TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS LOOK QUITE LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS ALL POINTING TOWARDS LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IN AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST AND AFTER
MUCH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOIST FREEZE WATCH
FOR AREAS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DROP TO 33 DEGREES OR LOWER FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCALLY COOLER POTENTIAL (28 TO 32
DEGREE RANGE) IN BOUNDARY LAYER VS SENSOR LEVEL MEASUREMENT. MOST IF
NOT ENTIRE CWA WILL LIKELY WARRANT SOME SORT OF HEADLINE BUT WITH
CLOUD COVER AMOUNT AND TIMING STILL A HUGE ISSUE...DON`T WANT TO
LOCK DAY SHIFT INTO ADVISORY/WARNING SITUATION DESPITE CURRENTLY
FAVORABLE SETUP IN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK PROVIDING
FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ON SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH DEPTH OF LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SHALLOW WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE.
SOME BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH
APPROACH OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH SHOULD YIELD SOME EASTWARD
ADVECTION OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING...BUT
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL DECK TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MIXING HEIGHTS
LIMITED TO AROUND 900 HPA WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS FROM LOWER 50S
FAR NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S SOUTHWEST.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SOME WEAK
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD COMMENCE ON SUNDAY ALONG LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE...WITH THIS WEAK MOISTURE AXIS
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL BAROCLINICITY SHOULD ALSO EXIST WELL DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH MAY INDUCE SOME WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE MARGINAL ACROSS AREAS PRONE TO THIS
ELEVATED FORCING HOWEVER. GIVEN COMBINATION OF ABOVE FACTORS HAVE
MAINTAINED BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO INCREASE BY EARLY MONDAY AS UPSTREAM WAVE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ALTHOUGH LATEST ITERATIONS
OF THE EC SEEM TO BE A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE AND MORE DELAYED IN
THIS REGARD. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS THAN PREVIOUS INDICATIONS...SO HAVE HELD TO
INHERITED HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE POPS WILL
NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS THE EAST IN NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES
DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH. PRECIP MAY END AS A PERIOD
OF PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. STILL SOME INDICATIONS OF BETTER
PHASING OF UPPER SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEND
TO ISOLD SHOWER POTENTIAL LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST...SO NO CHANGES
MADE IN THIS REGARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MORE
PHASED UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATES ACROSS EASTERN CONUS LATER IN THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF CENTRAL CONUS
UPPER RIDGING. MORE PRONOUNCED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPAND OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS WILL REMAIN LONGEST AT KSBN WITH VFR CIGS EVENTUALLY
TAKING SHAPE AT KFWA AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     INZ005>009-016>018-024>027-032>034.

MI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MIZ078>081.

OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 180755
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
355 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS...SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALLOWING FOR COLD TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY
KEEP LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA
AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TWO FOLD CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT
BEING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT/INITIAL SHORTWAVE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
COLDER AIR CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY
WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPS
DROPPING BELOW ZERO WILL ALLOW FOR A UPTICK IN LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARDS 12Z. UPSTREAM RADARS SHOWING A FEW
NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS TAKING SHAPE NOW AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND
FURTHER WITH PEAK TIME FRAME IN THE 12 TO 18Z PERIOD. HAVE ADJUSTED
ONSET OF HIGHEST POPS CLOSER TO THE 12Z TIME FRAME AND EXPANDED
INLAND A BIT WITH SUBSEQUENT EXPANSION OF ALL POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE IN MOST LOCATIONS.
VERY LITTLE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM
NE.

NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKE INTO THIS EVENING WITH 925 MB RH
PLUMES SHOWING GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT RH VALUES DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THIS AREA SHIFTING
EAST TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS LOOK QUITE LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS ALL POINTING TOWARDS LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IN AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST AND AFTER
MUCH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOIST FREEZE WATCH
FOR AREAS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DROP TO 33 DEGREES OR LOWER FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCALLY COOLER POTENTIAL (28 TO 32
DEGREE RANGE) IN BOUNDARY LAYER VS SENSOR LEVEL MEASUREMENT. MOST IF
NOT ENTIRE CWA WILL LIKELY WARRANT SOME SORT OF HEADLINE BUT WITH
CLOUD COVER AMOUNT AND TIMING STILL A HUGE ISSUE...DON`T WANT TO
LOCK DAY SHIFT INTO ADVISORY/WARNING SITUATION DESPITE CURRENTLY
FAVORABLE SETUP IN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK PROVIDING
FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ON SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH DEPTH OF LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SHALLOW WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE.
SOME BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH
APPROACH OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH SHOULD YIELD SOME EASTWARD
ADVECTION OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING...BUT
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL DECK TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MIXING HEIGHTS
LIMITED TO AROUND 900 HPA WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS FROM LOWER 50S
FAR NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S SOUTHWEST.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SOME WEAK
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD COMMENCE ON SUNDAY ALONG LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE...WITH THIS WEAK MOISTURE AXIS
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL BAROCLINICITY SHOULD ALSO EXIST WELL DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH MAY INDUCE SOME WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE MARGINAL ACROSS AREAS PRONE TO THIS
ELEVATED FORCING HOWEVER. GIVEN COMBINATION OF ABOVE FACTORS HAVE
MAINTAINED BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO INCREASE BY EARLY MONDAY AS UPSTREAM WAVE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ALTHOUGH LATEST ITERATIONS
OF THE EC SEEM TO BE A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE AND MORE DELAYED IN
THIS REGARD. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS THAN PREVIOUS INDICATIONS...SO HAVE HELD TO
INHERITED HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE POPS WILL
NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS THE EAST IN NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES
DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH. PRECIP MAY END AS A PERIOD
OF PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. STILL SOME INDICATIONS OF BETTER
PHASING OF UPPER SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEND
TO ISOLD SHOWER POTENTIAL LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST...SO NO CHANGES
MADE IN THIS REGARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MORE
PHASED UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATES ACROSS EASTERN CONUS LATER IN THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF CENTRAL CONUS
UPPER RIDGING. MORE PRONOUNCED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPAND OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS WILL REMAIN LONGEST AT KSBN WITH VFR CIGS EVENTUALLY
TAKING SHAPE AT KFWA AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     INZ005>009-016>018-024>027-032>034.

MI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MIZ078>081.

OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 180755
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
355 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TODAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS...SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALLOWING FOR COLD TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY
KEEP LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA
AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN HOWEVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TWO FOLD CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT
BEING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT/INITIAL SHORTWAVE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
COLDER AIR CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY
WAS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPS
DROPPING BELOW ZERO WILL ALLOW FOR A UPTICK IN LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TOWARDS 12Z. UPSTREAM RADARS SHOWING A FEW
NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS TAKING SHAPE NOW AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND
FURTHER WITH PEAK TIME FRAME IN THE 12 TO 18Z PERIOD. HAVE ADJUSTED
ONSET OF HIGHEST POPS CLOSER TO THE 12Z TIME FRAME AND EXPANDED
INLAND A BIT WITH SUBSEQUENT EXPANSION OF ALL POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE IN MOST LOCATIONS.
VERY LITTLE DIURNAL SWING IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM
NE.

NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKE INTO THIS EVENING WITH 925 MB RH
PLUMES SHOWING GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT RH VALUES DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE WHICH PERSISTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THIS AREA SHIFTING
EAST TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS LOOK QUITE LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS ALL POINTING TOWARDS LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IN AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST AND AFTER
MUCH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOIST FREEZE WATCH
FOR AREAS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DROP TO 33 DEGREES OR LOWER FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCALLY COOLER POTENTIAL (28 TO 32
DEGREE RANGE) IN BOUNDARY LAYER VS SENSOR LEVEL MEASUREMENT. MOST IF
NOT ENTIRE CWA WILL LIKELY WARRANT SOME SORT OF HEADLINE BUT WITH
CLOUD COVER AMOUNT AND TIMING STILL A HUGE ISSUE...DON`T WANT TO
LOCK DAY SHIFT INTO ADVISORY/WARNING SITUATION DESPITE CURRENTLY
FAVORABLE SETUP IN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER LIKE
SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK PROVIDING
FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ON SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH DEPTH OF LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SHALLOW WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE.
SOME BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH
APPROACH OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH SHOULD YIELD SOME EASTWARD
ADVECTION OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING...BUT
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD ALLOW FOR MID LEVEL DECK TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MIXING HEIGHTS
LIMITED TO AROUND 900 HPA WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS FROM LOWER 50S
FAR NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S SOUTHWEST.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SOME WEAK
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD COMMENCE ON SUNDAY ALONG LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE...WITH THIS WEAK MOISTURE AXIS
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL BAROCLINICITY SHOULD ALSO EXIST WELL DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH MAY INDUCE SOME WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE MARGINAL ACROSS AREAS PRONE TO THIS
ELEVATED FORCING HOWEVER. GIVEN COMBINATION OF ABOVE FACTORS HAVE
MAINTAINED BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO INCREASE BY EARLY MONDAY AS UPSTREAM WAVE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ALTHOUGH LATEST ITERATIONS
OF THE EC SEEM TO BE A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE AND MORE DELAYED IN
THIS REGARD. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS THAN PREVIOUS INDICATIONS...SO HAVE HELD TO
INHERITED HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST. IT IS POSSIBLE POPS WILL
NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS THE EAST IN NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES
DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH. PRECIP MAY END AS A PERIOD
OF PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. STILL SOME INDICATIONS OF BETTER
PHASING OF UPPER SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEND
TO ISOLD SHOWER POTENTIAL LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST...SO NO CHANGES
MADE IN THIS REGARD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MORE
PHASED UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATES ACROSS EASTERN CONUS LATER IN THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF CENTRAL CONUS
UPPER RIDGING. MORE PRONOUNCED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPAND OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS WILL REMAIN LONGEST AT KSBN WITH VFR CIGS EVENTUALLY
TAKING SHAPE AT KFWA AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     INZ005>009-016>018-024>027-032>034.

MI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MIZ078>081.

OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 180542
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
142 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO
TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN HALF HAS A CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT WITH THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS HAVING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TOMORROW.
THE WIND WILL ALSO BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 50
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SPREAD OVER THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PROVIDING DRY COOL WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

SUCCINCT POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM LOW CENTER JUST SOUTH OF JAMES
BAY...ENHANCED BY LAKE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH FAR WESTERN MICHIGAN
INTO FAR NWRN IN. SATURATION WELL LAGGED WELL UPSTREAM OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH NARROW POST FRONTAL DRY SLOT WHICH EVENTUALLY
PINCHES OFF LATE EVENING THROUGH SERN CWA ALLOWING RAPID INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVERAGE. UPTICK IN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY BY LATE
NIGHT/06-12 UTC TIMEFRAME AS LAKE INDUCED CAPE RISES TO 200-250
J/KG...AND EVEN FURTHER EARLY SATURDAY TO NEAR 300 J/KG WITH LK
EQL RISING TO 9-10KFT. LESSER PVU ANOMALY /CURRENTLY ENTERING FAR
WRN SD/ TO BEGIN TO PHASE INTO LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WELL EAST OF
CWA...AFFORDING NEWD ACCELERATION OF GONZALO REMNANTS INTO
NORTHERN ATL. GIVEN MODEST DEGREE OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH CYCLONIC SFC-8H FLOW AND DOMINANT/SUFFICIENTLY DEEP
CAA CONTINUING INTO MIDDAY WILL OPT FOR COVERAGE TYPE WORDING
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MI FOR POPS GTE 30 PERCENT LATE TONIGHT INTO
MIDDAY SAT...TIERED TO LOW CHANCE WORDING FARTHER INLAND. QUICK
EASTWARD SHIFT OF HEIGHT FALL CENTROID THROUGH LOWER GREAT LAKES
SHOULD KEEP OVERALL SYSTEM RATHER LACKLUSTER/VOID OF
COHESIVENESS. RELAXATION OF LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING ALONG WITH APPROACH OF STRONG 80-100M/12HR MOVING INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES/NRN WI BY 00 UTC SUN...AFFORDING START OF
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING COMMENCING OUTSIDE OF LAKE
INFLUENCE REGION. THICK STRATOCU COVERAGE AND RAINFALL
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CWA ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF COLD UPSTREAM TROF
NORTH OF CWA ELONGATED E-W TO STYMIE DIURNAL RISE ON
SAT...LOWERING A SKOSH ESPECIALLY NWRN/NRN INTO CENTRAL INTERIOR
CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD GENERALLY QUIET WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS
ONE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND
ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

INITIAL SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. GRADUAL CLEARING
AND DRYING EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTION IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. DELTA T VALUES NOT THAT GREAT BUT LIKELY LARGE ENOUGH
TO AID IN CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OFF THE WARM LAKE. THIS IS RATHER
IMPORTANT WITH RESPECT TO FROST AND FREEZE POTENTIAL BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THOSE LOCATIONS WHICH CLEAR EARLY WILL LIKELY DIP
INTO THE LOWER 30S OR EVEN UPPER 20S IN RURAL LOCATIONS WHILE
AREAS REMAINING UNDER ANY LAKE CLOUDS WILL SEE READINGS REMAIN IN
THE MID TO EVEN UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE LAKE. HAVE KEPT WITH
PREVIOUS IDEA OF COLDEST TEMPERATURES FAR NORTHEAST AND WARMEST
ACROSS THE WEST. TIMING OF THESE FREEZING TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE
TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL AND TYPICAL END OF OUR FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES IS USUALLY AROUND OCTOBER 20TH.

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND MODEST THETA E INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH ATMOSPHERE
INITIALLY DRY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION NOT CONSIDERABLE OPTED TO
KEEP THE 00-06Z TIME PERIOD DRY AND INTRODUCE POPS AFTER 06Z.
THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAVERSE THE AREA. LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW
AND NUMEROUS SUBTLE SHORT WAVES WARRANT LOW POPS MONDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE EAST. DID INCLUDE A LOW POP TO RIDE
OVER EASTERN HALF OF AREA TUESDAY WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
PHASING OF UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES MAY SLOW ITS EXIT.
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE PCPN FREE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS
EAST...STACKING UP THE PATTERN.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NO
STRONG COLD AIR INTRUSION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S BUT TRENDING TOWARD UPPER 50S AND EVEN LOWER 60S BY END OF
THE PERIOD. A FEW NIGHTS INTO THE 30S UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BUT
MODERATING TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPAND OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS WILL REMAIN LONGEST AT KSBN WITH VFR CIGS EVENTUALLY
TAKING SHAPE AT KFWA AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 180542
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
142 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO
TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN HALF HAS A CHANCE FOR RAIN TONIGHT WITH THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS HAVING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TOMORROW.
THE WIND WILL ALSO BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 50
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SPREAD OVER THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PROVIDING DRY COOL WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

SUCCINCT POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM LOW CENTER JUST SOUTH OF JAMES
BAY...ENHANCED BY LAKE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH FAR WESTERN MICHIGAN
INTO FAR NWRN IN. SATURATION WELL LAGGED WELL UPSTREAM OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH NARROW POST FRONTAL DRY SLOT WHICH EVENTUALLY
PINCHES OFF LATE EVENING THROUGH SERN CWA ALLOWING RAPID INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVERAGE. UPTICK IN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY BY LATE
NIGHT/06-12 UTC TIMEFRAME AS LAKE INDUCED CAPE RISES TO 200-250
J/KG...AND EVEN FURTHER EARLY SATURDAY TO NEAR 300 J/KG WITH LK
EQL RISING TO 9-10KFT. LESSER PVU ANOMALY /CURRENTLY ENTERING FAR
WRN SD/ TO BEGIN TO PHASE INTO LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WELL EAST OF
CWA...AFFORDING NEWD ACCELERATION OF GONZALO REMNANTS INTO
NORTHERN ATL. GIVEN MODEST DEGREE OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH CYCLONIC SFC-8H FLOW AND DOMINANT/SUFFICIENTLY DEEP
CAA CONTINUING INTO MIDDAY WILL OPT FOR COVERAGE TYPE WORDING
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MI FOR POPS GTE 30 PERCENT LATE TONIGHT INTO
MIDDAY SAT...TIERED TO LOW CHANCE WORDING FARTHER INLAND. QUICK
EASTWARD SHIFT OF HEIGHT FALL CENTROID THROUGH LOWER GREAT LAKES
SHOULD KEEP OVERALL SYSTEM RATHER LACKLUSTER/VOID OF
COHESIVENESS. RELAXATION OF LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING ALONG WITH APPROACH OF STRONG 80-100M/12HR MOVING INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES/NRN WI BY 00 UTC SUN...AFFORDING START OF
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING COMMENCING OUTSIDE OF LAKE
INFLUENCE REGION. THICK STRATOCU COVERAGE AND RAINFALL
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CWA ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF COLD UPSTREAM TROF
NORTH OF CWA ELONGATED E-W TO STYMIE DIURNAL RISE ON
SAT...LOWERING A SKOSH ESPECIALLY NWRN/NRN INTO CENTRAL INTERIOR
CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD GENERALLY QUIET WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS
ONE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND
ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

INITIAL SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. GRADUAL CLEARING
AND DRYING EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTION IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. DELTA T VALUES NOT THAT GREAT BUT LIKELY LARGE ENOUGH
TO AID IN CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OFF THE WARM LAKE. THIS IS RATHER
IMPORTANT WITH RESPECT TO FROST AND FREEZE POTENTIAL BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THOSE LOCATIONS WHICH CLEAR EARLY WILL LIKELY DIP
INTO THE LOWER 30S OR EVEN UPPER 20S IN RURAL LOCATIONS WHILE
AREAS REMAINING UNDER ANY LAKE CLOUDS WILL SEE READINGS REMAIN IN
THE MID TO EVEN UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE LAKE. HAVE KEPT WITH
PREVIOUS IDEA OF COLDEST TEMPERATURES FAR NORTHEAST AND WARMEST
ACROSS THE WEST. TIMING OF THESE FREEZING TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE
TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL AND TYPICAL END OF OUR FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES IS USUALLY AROUND OCTOBER 20TH.

NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND MODEST THETA E INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH ATMOSPHERE
INITIALLY DRY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION NOT CONSIDERABLE OPTED TO
KEEP THE 00-06Z TIME PERIOD DRY AND INTRODUCE POPS AFTER 06Z.
THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAVERSE THE AREA. LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW
AND NUMEROUS SUBTLE SHORT WAVES WARRANT LOW POPS MONDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE EAST. DID INCLUDE A LOW POP TO RIDE
OVER EASTERN HALF OF AREA TUESDAY WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
PHASING OF UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES MAY SLOW ITS EXIT.
REMAINDER OF LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE PCPN FREE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS
EAST...STACKING UP THE PATTERN.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT NO
STRONG COLD AIR INTRUSION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S BUT TRENDING TOWARD UPPER 50S AND EVEN LOWER 60S BY END OF
THE PERIOD. A FEW NIGHTS INTO THE 30S UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BUT
MODERATING TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPAND OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS WILL REMAIN LONGEST AT KSBN WITH VFR CIGS EVENTUALLY
TAKING SHAPE AT KFWA AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...FISHER


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