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000
FXUS63 KIWX 012341
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
741 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PESKY COMPACT MIDLEVEL VORT MAX CONTINUES TO SWIRL ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE FORWARD MOMENTUM. DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING SOME DECENT SBCAPE PER SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS
DESPITE VERY POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT. DPVA IN THE PRESENCE OF THIS
INSTABILITY IS GENERATING SOME SCT CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE IN OUR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE HEIGHT ANOMALY AND ALONG REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING BUT SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION TO OUR W/SW THIS MORNING WAS ACTUALLY BEING
DRIVEN BY FOCUSED 305K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION. SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS (BOTH HI-RES AND
OTHERWISE) SHOW THIS AREA OF ENHANCED ASCENT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITH 20-25 KT LLJ SETTING UP AGAIN OVER AT LEAST OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT...PROMPTING CONTINUED LOW CHANCE
POPS IN OUR EAST THROUGH TOMORROW. COVERAGE HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE
GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY GIVEN LIMITED UPDRAFT POTENTIAL AND VIRTUALLY NO FLOW
ALOFT. COROLLARY TO THIS IS THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES MANAGE TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST WILL MOVE VERY SLOW AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

OTHER MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HIGHS TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...APPROACHING 90F.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ONCE AGAIN...HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR NEEDED
RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ITS PERIPHERY. ONE
OF THESE IS POISED TO MOVE NE OUT OF PLAINS AND THEN DROP SE INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE UNCAPPED WITH AT LEAST LOW TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AROUND. WILD CARD WILL BE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS ABILITY TO SPARK
ISOL TO MAYBE SCT CONVECTION. WILL BE KEEPING POPS SUBDUED FOR THE
TIME BEING IN THE SLGT CHC TO LOW CHC CATEGORY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

BY SATURDAY...MED RANGE MODELS ALL AGREE ON 588 DM OR HIGHER UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS NUDGING INTO THE REGION AND HOLDING TIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 90
WITH HEAT INDICIES INTO THE 90S. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN STATES SATURDAY AND MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF DOES SUGGEST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT COULD BRING AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR STORM TO THE AREA
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AVOIDED BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING
AND THAT TREND APPEARS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S LENDS SOME CONCERN FOR FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...BUT IT
APPEARS SW WINDS WILL BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST RAP AND HRRR WHICH
KEEP VISIBILITIES P6SM ALL NIGHT. DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPO 4SM BR
MENTION IN THE TAF GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED MOIST LOW LEVEL
DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF KFWA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN TODAY...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.



&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...BENTLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 012341
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
741 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PESKY COMPACT MIDLEVEL VORT MAX CONTINUES TO SWIRL ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE FORWARD MOMENTUM. DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING SOME DECENT SBCAPE PER SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS
DESPITE VERY POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT. DPVA IN THE PRESENCE OF THIS
INSTABILITY IS GENERATING SOME SCT CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE IN OUR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE HEIGHT ANOMALY AND ALONG REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING BUT SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION TO OUR W/SW THIS MORNING WAS ACTUALLY BEING
DRIVEN BY FOCUSED 305K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION. SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS (BOTH HI-RES AND
OTHERWISE) SHOW THIS AREA OF ENHANCED ASCENT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITH 20-25 KT LLJ SETTING UP AGAIN OVER AT LEAST OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT...PROMPTING CONTINUED LOW CHANCE
POPS IN OUR EAST THROUGH TOMORROW. COVERAGE HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE
GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY GIVEN LIMITED UPDRAFT POTENTIAL AND VIRTUALLY NO FLOW
ALOFT. COROLLARY TO THIS IS THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES MANAGE TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST WILL MOVE VERY SLOW AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

OTHER MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HIGHS TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...APPROACHING 90F.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ONCE AGAIN...HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR NEEDED
RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ITS PERIPHERY. ONE
OF THESE IS POISED TO MOVE NE OUT OF PLAINS AND THEN DROP SE INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE UNCAPPED WITH AT LEAST LOW TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AROUND. WILD CARD WILL BE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS ABILITY TO SPARK
ISOL TO MAYBE SCT CONVECTION. WILL BE KEEPING POPS SUBDUED FOR THE
TIME BEING IN THE SLGT CHC TO LOW CHC CATEGORY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

BY SATURDAY...MED RANGE MODELS ALL AGREE ON 588 DM OR HIGHER UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS NUDGING INTO THE REGION AND HOLDING TIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 90
WITH HEAT INDICIES INTO THE 90S. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN STATES SATURDAY AND MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF DOES SUGGEST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT COULD BRING AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR STORM TO THE AREA
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AVOIDED BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING
AND THAT TREND APPEARS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S LENDS SOME CONCERN FOR FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...BUT IT
APPEARS SW WINDS WILL BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST RAP AND HRRR WHICH
KEEP VISIBILITIES P6SM ALL NIGHT. DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPO 4SM BR
MENTION IN THE TAF GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED MOIST LOW LEVEL
DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF KFWA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN TODAY...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.



&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...BENTLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 011946
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
346 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PESKY COMPACT MIDLEVEL VORT MAX CONTINUES TO SWIRL ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE FORWARD MOMENTUM. DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING SOME DECENT SBCAPE PER SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS
DESPITE VERY POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT. DPVA IN THE PRESENCE OF THIS
INSTABILITY IS GENERATING SOME SCT CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE IN OUR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE HEIGHT ANOMALY AND ALONG REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING BUT SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION TO OUR W/SW THIS MORNING WAS ACTUALLY BEING
DRIVEN BY FOCUSED 305K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION. SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS (BOTH HI-RES AND
OTHERWISE) SHOW THIS AREA OF ENHANCED ASCENT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITH 20-25 KT LLJ SETTING UP AGAIN OVER AT LEAST OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT...PROMPTING CONTINUED LOW CHANCE
POPS IN OUR EAST THROUGH TOMORROW. COVERAGE HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE
GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY GIVEN LIMITED UPDRAFT POTENTIAL AND VIRTUALLY NO FLOW
ALOFT. COROLLARY TO THIS IS THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES MANAGE TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST WILL MOVE VERY SLOW AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

OTHER MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HIGHS TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...APPROACHING 90F.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ONCE AGAIN...HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR NEEDED
RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ITS PERIPHERY. ONE
OF THESE IS POISED TO MOVE NE OUT OF PLAINS AND THEN DROP SE INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE UNCAPPED WITH AT LEAST LOW TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AROUND. WILD CARD WILL BE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS ABILITY TO SPARK
ISOL TO MAYBE SCT CONVECTION. WILL BE KEEPING POPS SUBDUED FOR THE
TIME BEING IN THE SLGT CHC TO LOW CHC CATEGORY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

BY SATURDAY...MED RANGE MODELS ALL AGREE ON 588 DM OR HIGHER UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS NUDGING INTO THE REGION AND HOLDING TIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 90
WITH HEAT INDICIES INTO THE 90S. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN STATES SATURDAY AND MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF DOES SUGGEST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT COULD BRING AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR STORM TO THE AREA
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY AT KFWA...AS A MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF
THOUGH. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFWA AGAIN TONIGHT AS LLJ
RAMPS BACK UP BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHER CONCERN IS SOME PATCHY BR AROUND SUNRISE
BUT DENSE FOG NOT EXPECTED GIVEN MODEST SW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 011946
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
346 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PESKY COMPACT MIDLEVEL VORT MAX CONTINUES TO SWIRL ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE FORWARD MOMENTUM. DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING SOME DECENT SBCAPE PER SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS
DESPITE VERY POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT. DPVA IN THE PRESENCE OF THIS
INSTABILITY IS GENERATING SOME SCT CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE IN OUR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE HEIGHT ANOMALY AND ALONG REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING BUT SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION TO OUR W/SW THIS MORNING WAS ACTUALLY BEING
DRIVEN BY FOCUSED 305K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION. SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS (BOTH HI-RES AND
OTHERWISE) SHOW THIS AREA OF ENHANCED ASCENT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITH 20-25 KT LLJ SETTING UP AGAIN OVER AT LEAST OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT...PROMPTING CONTINUED LOW CHANCE
POPS IN OUR EAST THROUGH TOMORROW. COVERAGE HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE
GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY GIVEN LIMITED UPDRAFT POTENTIAL AND VIRTUALLY NO FLOW
ALOFT. COROLLARY TO THIS IS THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES MANAGE TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST WILL MOVE VERY SLOW AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

OTHER MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HIGHS TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...APPROACHING 90F.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ONCE AGAIN...HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR NEEDED
RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ITS PERIPHERY. ONE
OF THESE IS POISED TO MOVE NE OUT OF PLAINS AND THEN DROP SE INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE UNCAPPED WITH AT LEAST LOW TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AROUND. WILD CARD WILL BE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS ABILITY TO SPARK
ISOL TO MAYBE SCT CONVECTION. WILL BE KEEPING POPS SUBDUED FOR THE
TIME BEING IN THE SLGT CHC TO LOW CHC CATEGORY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

BY SATURDAY...MED RANGE MODELS ALL AGREE ON 588 DM OR HIGHER UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS NUDGING INTO THE REGION AND HOLDING TIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 90
WITH HEAT INDICIES INTO THE 90S. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN STATES SATURDAY AND MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF DOES SUGGEST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT COULD BRING AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR STORM TO THE AREA
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY AT KFWA...AS A MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF
THOUGH. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFWA AGAIN TONIGHT AS LLJ
RAMPS BACK UP BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHER CONCERN IS SOME PATCHY BR AROUND SUNRISE
BUT DENSE FOG NOT EXPECTED GIVEN MODEST SW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 011946
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
346 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PESKY COMPACT MIDLEVEL VORT MAX CONTINUES TO SWIRL ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE FORWARD MOMENTUM. DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING SOME DECENT SBCAPE PER SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS
DESPITE VERY POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT. DPVA IN THE PRESENCE OF THIS
INSTABILITY IS GENERATING SOME SCT CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE IN OUR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE HEIGHT ANOMALY AND ALONG REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING BUT SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION TO OUR W/SW THIS MORNING WAS ACTUALLY BEING
DRIVEN BY FOCUSED 305K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION. SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS (BOTH HI-RES AND
OTHERWISE) SHOW THIS AREA OF ENHANCED ASCENT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITH 20-25 KT LLJ SETTING UP AGAIN OVER AT LEAST OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT...PROMPTING CONTINUED LOW CHANCE
POPS IN OUR EAST THROUGH TOMORROW. COVERAGE HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE
GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY GIVEN LIMITED UPDRAFT POTENTIAL AND VIRTUALLY NO FLOW
ALOFT. COROLLARY TO THIS IS THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES MANAGE TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST WILL MOVE VERY SLOW AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

OTHER MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HIGHS TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...APPROACHING 90F.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ONCE AGAIN...HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR NEEDED
RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ITS PERIPHERY. ONE
OF THESE IS POISED TO MOVE NE OUT OF PLAINS AND THEN DROP SE INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE UNCAPPED WITH AT LEAST LOW TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AROUND. WILD CARD WILL BE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS ABILITY TO SPARK
ISOL TO MAYBE SCT CONVECTION. WILL BE KEEPING POPS SUBDUED FOR THE
TIME BEING IN THE SLGT CHC TO LOW CHC CATEGORY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

BY SATURDAY...MED RANGE MODELS ALL AGREE ON 588 DM OR HIGHER UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS NUDGING INTO THE REGION AND HOLDING TIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 90
WITH HEAT INDICIES INTO THE 90S. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN STATES SATURDAY AND MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF DOES SUGGEST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT COULD BRING AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR STORM TO THE AREA
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY AT KFWA...AS A MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF
THOUGH. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFWA AGAIN TONIGHT AS LLJ
RAMPS BACK UP BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHER CONCERN IS SOME PATCHY BR AROUND SUNRISE
BUT DENSE FOG NOT EXPECTED GIVEN MODEST SW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 011738
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY AT KFWA...AS A MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF
THOUGH. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFWA AGAIN TONIGHT AS LLJ
RAMPS BACK UP BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHER CONCERN IS SOME PATCHY BR AROUND SUNRISE
BUT DENSE FOG NOT EXPECTED GIVEN MODEST SW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 011738
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY AT KFWA...AS A MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF
THOUGH. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFWA AGAIN TONIGHT AS LLJ
RAMPS BACK UP BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHER CONCERN IS SOME PATCHY BR AROUND SUNRISE
BUT DENSE FOG NOT EXPECTED GIVEN MODEST SW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 011738
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY AT KFWA...AS A MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF
THOUGH. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFWA AGAIN TONIGHT AS LLJ
RAMPS BACK UP BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHER CONCERN IS SOME PATCHY BR AROUND SUNRISE
BUT DENSE FOG NOT EXPECTED GIVEN MODEST SW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 011738
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY AT KFWA...AS A MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF
THOUGH. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFWA AGAIN TONIGHT AS LLJ
RAMPS BACK UP BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHER CONCERN IS SOME PATCHY BR AROUND SUNRISE
BUT DENSE FOG NOT EXPECTED GIVEN MODEST SW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 010951
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
551 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING MAY STILL PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY IFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAINLY AT KSBN THROUGH 13Z...BUT POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS INDICATIONS. MOISTURE DEPTH
APPEARS TO BE MORE LIMITED IN SCOPE THIS MORNING AND THUS
EXPECTING A RAPID BURNOFF OF ANY FOG TOWARD 12Z. OTHERWISE...A
SLOW MOVING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MEANDER
BACK TO THE EAST TODAY AND MAY COMBINE WITH PEAK AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL. POTENTIAL STILL
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW HOWEVER FOR TAF INCLUSION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO REFRAIN FROM MENTION WITH THE 12Z TAFS. WEAK WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION FORCING MAY RESULT IN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL INTO TONIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE/EXPECTED
COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AFTER ANY FOG RELATED VSBY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 010951
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
551 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING MAY STILL PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY IFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAINLY AT KSBN THROUGH 13Z...BUT POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS INDICATIONS. MOISTURE DEPTH
APPEARS TO BE MORE LIMITED IN SCOPE THIS MORNING AND THUS
EXPECTING A RAPID BURNOFF OF ANY FOG TOWARD 12Z. OTHERWISE...A
SLOW MOVING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MEANDER
BACK TO THE EAST TODAY AND MAY COMBINE WITH PEAK AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL. POTENTIAL STILL
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW HOWEVER FOR TAF INCLUSION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO REFRAIN FROM MENTION WITH THE 12Z TAFS. WEAK WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION FORCING MAY RESULT IN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL INTO TONIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE/EXPECTED
COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AFTER ANY FOG RELATED VSBY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 010951
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
551 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING MAY STILL PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY IFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAINLY AT KSBN THROUGH 13Z...BUT POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS INDICATIONS. MOISTURE DEPTH
APPEARS TO BE MORE LIMITED IN SCOPE THIS MORNING AND THUS
EXPECTING A RAPID BURNOFF OF ANY FOG TOWARD 12Z. OTHERWISE...A
SLOW MOVING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MEANDER
BACK TO THE EAST TODAY AND MAY COMBINE WITH PEAK AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL. POTENTIAL STILL
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW HOWEVER FOR TAF INCLUSION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO REFRAIN FROM MENTION WITH THE 12Z TAFS. WEAK WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION FORCING MAY RESULT IN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL INTO TONIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE/EXPECTED
COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AFTER ANY FOG RELATED VSBY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 010951
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
551 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING MAY STILL PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY IFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAINLY AT KSBN THROUGH 13Z...BUT POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS INDICATIONS. MOISTURE DEPTH
APPEARS TO BE MORE LIMITED IN SCOPE THIS MORNING AND THUS
EXPECTING A RAPID BURNOFF OF ANY FOG TOWARD 12Z. OTHERWISE...A
SLOW MOVING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MEANDER
BACK TO THE EAST TODAY AND MAY COMBINE WITH PEAK AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL. POTENTIAL STILL
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW HOWEVER FOR TAF INCLUSION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO REFRAIN FROM MENTION WITH THE 12Z TAFS. WEAK WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION FORCING MAY RESULT IN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL INTO TONIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE/EXPECTED
COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AFTER ANY FOG RELATED VSBY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 010750
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
IMPACTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NEAR TERM CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
IMPACTING TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO DROP
TO IFR/LIFR VSBYS AS OF 0530Z. STILL SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS...WITH LATEST AMDAR DATA STILL
SUGGESTING SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW RAISING SIMILAR QUESTIONS
AS LAST NIGHT IN TERMS OF FOG VS STRATUS. GROUND CONDITIONS DID
DRY OUT SOMEWHAT YESTERDAY WITH BETTER INSOLATION/SFC HEATING
WHICH MAY ALSO PLAY SOME ROLE IN LIMITING EXTENT OF FOG AS
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO IFR
VSBYS AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIFR VSBYS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME PARTICULARLY AT KSBN.

OTHERWISE...DEPARTING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT EVEN KSBN COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS A CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF
THIS VORT MAX. POINT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR PRECIP MENTION
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AND WILL CARRY DRY/VFR FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS FOG ERODES AFTER 12Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 010750
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
IMPACTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NEAR TERM CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
IMPACTING TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO DROP
TO IFR/LIFR VSBYS AS OF 0530Z. STILL SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS...WITH LATEST AMDAR DATA STILL
SUGGESTING SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW RAISING SIMILAR QUESTIONS
AS LAST NIGHT IN TERMS OF FOG VS STRATUS. GROUND CONDITIONS DID
DRY OUT SOMEWHAT YESTERDAY WITH BETTER INSOLATION/SFC HEATING
WHICH MAY ALSO PLAY SOME ROLE IN LIMITING EXTENT OF FOG AS
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO IFR
VSBYS AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIFR VSBYS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME PARTICULARLY AT KSBN.

OTHERWISE...DEPARTING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT EVEN KSBN COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS A CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF
THIS VORT MAX. POINT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR PRECIP MENTION
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AND WILL CARRY DRY/VFR FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS FOG ERODES AFTER 12Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 010750
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
IMPACTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NEAR TERM CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
IMPACTING TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO DROP
TO IFR/LIFR VSBYS AS OF 0530Z. STILL SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS...WITH LATEST AMDAR DATA STILL
SUGGESTING SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW RAISING SIMILAR QUESTIONS
AS LAST NIGHT IN TERMS OF FOG VS STRATUS. GROUND CONDITIONS DID
DRY OUT SOMEWHAT YESTERDAY WITH BETTER INSOLATION/SFC HEATING
WHICH MAY ALSO PLAY SOME ROLE IN LIMITING EXTENT OF FOG AS
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO IFR
VSBYS AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIFR VSBYS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME PARTICULARLY AT KSBN.

OTHERWISE...DEPARTING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT EVEN KSBN COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS A CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF
THIS VORT MAX. POINT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR PRECIP MENTION
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AND WILL CARRY DRY/VFR FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS FOG ERODES AFTER 12Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 010750
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
IMPACTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NEAR TERM CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
IMPACTING TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO DROP
TO IFR/LIFR VSBYS AS OF 0530Z. STILL SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS...WITH LATEST AMDAR DATA STILL
SUGGESTING SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW RAISING SIMILAR QUESTIONS
AS LAST NIGHT IN TERMS OF FOG VS STRATUS. GROUND CONDITIONS DID
DRY OUT SOMEWHAT YESTERDAY WITH BETTER INSOLATION/SFC HEATING
WHICH MAY ALSO PLAY SOME ROLE IN LIMITING EXTENT OF FOG AS
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO IFR
VSBYS AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIFR VSBYS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME PARTICULARLY AT KSBN.

OTHERWISE...DEPARTING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT EVEN KSBN COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS A CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF
THIS VORT MAX. POINT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR PRECIP MENTION
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AND WILL CARRY DRY/VFR FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS FOG ERODES AFTER 12Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 010750 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NEAR TERM CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
IMPACTING TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO DROP
TO IFR/LIFR VSBYS AS OF 0530Z. STILL SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS...WITH LATEST AMDAR DATA STILL
SUGGESTING SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW RAISING SIMILAR QUESTIONS
AS LAST NIGHT IN TERMS OF FOG VS STRATUS. GROUND CONDITIONS DID
DRY OUT SOMEWHAT YESTERDAY WITH BETTER INSOLATION/SFC HEATING
WHICH MAY ALSO PLAY SOME ROLE IN LIMITING EXTENT OF FOG AS
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO IFR
VSBYS AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIFR VSBYS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME PARTICULARLY AT KSBN.

OTHERWISE...DEPARTING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT EVEN KSBN COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS A CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF
THIS VORT MAX. POINT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR PRECIP MENTION
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AND WILL CARRY DRY/VFR FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS FOG ERODES AFTER 12Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 010750 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NEAR TERM CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
IMPACTING TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO DROP
TO IFR/LIFR VSBYS AS OF 0530Z. STILL SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS...WITH LATEST AMDAR DATA STILL
SUGGESTING SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW RAISING SIMILAR QUESTIONS
AS LAST NIGHT IN TERMS OF FOG VS STRATUS. GROUND CONDITIONS DID
DRY OUT SOMEWHAT YESTERDAY WITH BETTER INSOLATION/SFC HEATING
WHICH MAY ALSO PLAY SOME ROLE IN LIMITING EXTENT OF FOG AS
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO IFR
VSBYS AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIFR VSBYS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME PARTICULARLY AT KSBN.

OTHERWISE...DEPARTING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT EVEN KSBN COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS A CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF
THIS VORT MAX. POINT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR PRECIP MENTION
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AND WILL CARRY DRY/VFR FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS FOG ERODES AFTER 12Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 010558
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
158 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SBCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST 20-25 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION KMZZ INTO WEST
CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG LATENT/DIFFUSE
SFC BOUNDARY AND MODICUM OF DPVA FROM ORPHANED MID LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH LACK OF SIG FORCING FEATURE/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATE CONVECTION AGAIN TO BE LARGELY TIED TO
DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE/DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. LOSS OF CU/WEAK
GRADIENT TO SET STAGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP EARLY AM INVERSION
AND BR/FG POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN LOOMS. DRIER RH CROSS SECTIONS LESS
SUGGESTIVE OF STRATUS AS SEEN PAST TWO DAYS. XOVER TEMPS ACRS CWA
IN UPR 60S SUGGEST AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. OPT FOR AREAS
OF FOG MENTION ACRS NWRN/NRN WHERE MARKEDLY SLOWER MIXING OBSERVED
TODAY. MIGRATION OF VORT MAX TO FAR WCNTL INDIANA BY
DAYBREAK...THEN FEATURE CATCHES INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
NORTHERN STREAM AS NRN RIDGE OF REX IS WEAKENS. THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY GREATER SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION POINT
TO LOW CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WED
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE...WE DEAL WITH THESE
PESKY WEAKER SHORT WAVES RIDING THE RIDGE THAT THREATEN TO FIRE
OFF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND THE
SUBTLENESS OF THE PASSING WAVES...OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WED-FRI...BUT LIMITED IT TO MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THAT
WILL BE WHEN MOST INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WAVE TUE/WED...AND EVEN SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TUE NIGHT/WED AM. BUT GIVEN THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NEAR TERM CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
IMPACTING TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO DROP
TO IFR/LIFR VSBYS AS OF 0530Z. STILL SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS...WITH LATEST AMDAR DATA STILL
SUGGESTING SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW RAISING SIMILAR QUESTIONS
AS LAST NIGHT IN TERMS OF FOG VS STRATUS. GROUND CONDITIONS DID
DRY OUT SOMEWHAT YESTERDAY WITH BETTER INSOLATION/SFC HEATING
WHICH MAY ALSO PLAY SOME ROLE IN LIMITING EXTENT OF FOG AS
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO IFR
VSBYS AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIFR VSBYS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME PARTICULARLY AT KSBN.

OTHERWISE...DEPARTING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT EVEN KSBN COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS A CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF
THIS VORT MAX. POINT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR PRECIP MENTION
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AND WILL CARRY DRY/VFR FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS FOG ERODES AFTER 12Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 010558
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
158 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SBCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST 20-25 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION KMZZ INTO WEST
CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG LATENT/DIFFUSE
SFC BOUNDARY AND MODICUM OF DPVA FROM ORPHANED MID LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH LACK OF SIG FORCING FEATURE/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATE CONVECTION AGAIN TO BE LARGELY TIED TO
DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE/DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. LOSS OF CU/WEAK
GRADIENT TO SET STAGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP EARLY AM INVERSION
AND BR/FG POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN LOOMS. DRIER RH CROSS SECTIONS LESS
SUGGESTIVE OF STRATUS AS SEEN PAST TWO DAYS. XOVER TEMPS ACRS CWA
IN UPR 60S SUGGEST AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. OPT FOR AREAS
OF FOG MENTION ACRS NWRN/NRN WHERE MARKEDLY SLOWER MIXING OBSERVED
TODAY. MIGRATION OF VORT MAX TO FAR WCNTL INDIANA BY
DAYBREAK...THEN FEATURE CATCHES INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
NORTHERN STREAM AS NRN RIDGE OF REX IS WEAKENS. THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY GREATER SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION POINT
TO LOW CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WED
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE...WE DEAL WITH THESE
PESKY WEAKER SHORT WAVES RIDING THE RIDGE THAT THREATEN TO FIRE
OFF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND THE
SUBTLENESS OF THE PASSING WAVES...OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WED-FRI...BUT LIMITED IT TO MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THAT
WILL BE WHEN MOST INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WAVE TUE/WED...AND EVEN SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TUE NIGHT/WED AM. BUT GIVEN THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NEAR TERM CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
IMPACTING TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO DROP
TO IFR/LIFR VSBYS AS OF 0530Z. STILL SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS...WITH LATEST AMDAR DATA STILL
SUGGESTING SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW RAISING SIMILAR QUESTIONS
AS LAST NIGHT IN TERMS OF FOG VS STRATUS. GROUND CONDITIONS DID
DRY OUT SOMEWHAT YESTERDAY WITH BETTER INSOLATION/SFC HEATING
WHICH MAY ALSO PLAY SOME ROLE IN LIMITING EXTENT OF FOG AS
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO IFR
VSBYS AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIFR VSBYS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME PARTICULARLY AT KSBN.

OTHERWISE...DEPARTING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT EVEN KSBN COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS A CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF
THIS VORT MAX. POINT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR PRECIP MENTION
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AND WILL CARRY DRY/VFR FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS FOG ERODES AFTER 12Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 010558
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
158 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SBCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST 20-25 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION KMZZ INTO WEST
CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG LATENT/DIFFUSE
SFC BOUNDARY AND MODICUM OF DPVA FROM ORPHANED MID LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH LACK OF SIG FORCING FEATURE/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATE CONVECTION AGAIN TO BE LARGELY TIED TO
DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE/DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. LOSS OF CU/WEAK
GRADIENT TO SET STAGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP EARLY AM INVERSION
AND BR/FG POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN LOOMS. DRIER RH CROSS SECTIONS LESS
SUGGESTIVE OF STRATUS AS SEEN PAST TWO DAYS. XOVER TEMPS ACRS CWA
IN UPR 60S SUGGEST AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. OPT FOR AREAS
OF FOG MENTION ACRS NWRN/NRN WHERE MARKEDLY SLOWER MIXING OBSERVED
TODAY. MIGRATION OF VORT MAX TO FAR WCNTL INDIANA BY
DAYBREAK...THEN FEATURE CATCHES INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
NORTHERN STREAM AS NRN RIDGE OF REX IS WEAKENS. THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY GREATER SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION POINT
TO LOW CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WED
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE...WE DEAL WITH THESE
PESKY WEAKER SHORT WAVES RIDING THE RIDGE THAT THREATEN TO FIRE
OFF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND THE
SUBTLENESS OF THE PASSING WAVES...OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WED-FRI...BUT LIMITED IT TO MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THAT
WILL BE WHEN MOST INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WAVE TUE/WED...AND EVEN SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TUE NIGHT/WED AM. BUT GIVEN THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NEAR TERM CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
IMPACTING TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO DROP
TO IFR/LIFR VSBYS AS OF 0530Z. STILL SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS...WITH LATEST AMDAR DATA STILL
SUGGESTING SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW RAISING SIMILAR QUESTIONS
AS LAST NIGHT IN TERMS OF FOG VS STRATUS. GROUND CONDITIONS DID
DRY OUT SOMEWHAT YESTERDAY WITH BETTER INSOLATION/SFC HEATING
WHICH MAY ALSO PLAY SOME ROLE IN LIMITING EXTENT OF FOG AS
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO IFR
VSBYS AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIFR VSBYS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME PARTICULARLY AT KSBN.

OTHERWISE...DEPARTING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT EVEN KSBN COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS A CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF
THIS VORT MAX. POINT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR PRECIP MENTION
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AND WILL CARRY DRY/VFR FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS FOG ERODES AFTER 12Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 010558
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
158 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SBCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST 20-25 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION KMZZ INTO WEST
CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG LATENT/DIFFUSE
SFC BOUNDARY AND MODICUM OF DPVA FROM ORPHANED MID LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH LACK OF SIG FORCING FEATURE/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATE CONVECTION AGAIN TO BE LARGELY TIED TO
DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE/DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. LOSS OF CU/WEAK
GRADIENT TO SET STAGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP EARLY AM INVERSION
AND BR/FG POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN LOOMS. DRIER RH CROSS SECTIONS LESS
SUGGESTIVE OF STRATUS AS SEEN PAST TWO DAYS. XOVER TEMPS ACRS CWA
IN UPR 60S SUGGEST AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. OPT FOR AREAS
OF FOG MENTION ACRS NWRN/NRN WHERE MARKEDLY SLOWER MIXING OBSERVED
TODAY. MIGRATION OF VORT MAX TO FAR WCNTL INDIANA BY
DAYBREAK...THEN FEATURE CATCHES INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
NORTHERN STREAM AS NRN RIDGE OF REX IS WEAKENS. THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY GREATER SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION POINT
TO LOW CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WED
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE...WE DEAL WITH THESE
PESKY WEAKER SHORT WAVES RIDING THE RIDGE THAT THREATEN TO FIRE
OFF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND THE
SUBTLENESS OF THE PASSING WAVES...OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WED-FRI...BUT LIMITED IT TO MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THAT
WILL BE WHEN MOST INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WAVE TUE/WED...AND EVEN SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TUE NIGHT/WED AM. BUT GIVEN THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NEAR TERM CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
IMPACTING TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO DROP
TO IFR/LIFR VSBYS AS OF 0530Z. STILL SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS...WITH LATEST AMDAR DATA STILL
SUGGESTING SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW RAISING SIMILAR QUESTIONS
AS LAST NIGHT IN TERMS OF FOG VS STRATUS. GROUND CONDITIONS DID
DRY OUT SOMEWHAT YESTERDAY WITH BETTER INSOLATION/SFC HEATING
WHICH MAY ALSO PLAY SOME ROLE IN LIMITING EXTENT OF FOG AS
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO IFR
VSBYS AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIFR VSBYS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME PARTICULARLY AT KSBN.

OTHERWISE...DEPARTING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT EVEN KSBN COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS A CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF
THIS VORT MAX. POINT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR PRECIP MENTION
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AND WILL CARRY DRY/VFR FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS FOG ERODES AFTER 12Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 312334
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
734 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND THIS
MAY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SBCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST 20-25 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION KMZZ INTO WEST
CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG LATENT/DIFFUSE
SFC BOUNDARY AND MODICUM OF DPVA FROM ORPHANED MID LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH LACK OF SIG FORCING FEATURE/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATE CONVECTION AGAIN TO BE LARGELY TIED TO
DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE/DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. LOSS OF CU/WEAK
GRADIENT TO SET STAGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP EARLY AM INVERSION
AND BR/FG POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN LOOMS. DRIER RH CROSS SECTIONS LESS
SUGGESTIVE OF STRATUS AS SEEN PAST TWO DAYS. XOVER TEMPS ACRS CWA
IN UPR 60S SUGGEST AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. OPT FOR AREAS
OF FOG MENTION ACRS NWRN/NRN WHERE MARKEDLY SLOWER MIXING OBSERVED
TODAY. MIGRATION OF VORT MAX TO FAR WCNTL INDIANA BY
DAYBREAK...THEN FEATURE CATCHES INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
NORTHERN STREAM AS NRN RIDGE OF REX IS WEAKENS. THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY GREATER SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION POINT
TO LOW CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WED
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE...WE DEAL WITH THESE
PESKY WEAKER SHORT WAVES RIDING THE RIDGE THAT THREATEN TO FIRE
OFF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND THE
SUBTLENESS OF THE PASSING WAVES...OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WED-FRI...BUT LIMITED IT TO MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THAT
WILL BE WHEN MOST INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WAVE TUE/WED...AND EVEN SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TUE NIGHT/WED AM. BUT GIVEN THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. WITH A LITTLE DEEPER
MIXING ACROSS NW/NC INDIANA TODAY... DOUBT THERE WILL BE A REPEAT OF
THE LIFR VSBYS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS AT KSBN. FOG WILL
BURN OFF QUICKLY ON TUE MORNING WITH JUST SCT CU AND VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY. WK CUT-OFF UPR LOW OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE AREA
TUESDAY BUT PRBLY WONT IMPACT KSBN/KFWA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 312334
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
734 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND THIS
MAY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SBCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST 20-25 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION KMZZ INTO WEST
CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG LATENT/DIFFUSE
SFC BOUNDARY AND MODICUM OF DPVA FROM ORPHANED MID LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH LACK OF SIG FORCING FEATURE/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATE CONVECTION AGAIN TO BE LARGELY TIED TO
DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE/DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. LOSS OF CU/WEAK
GRADIENT TO SET STAGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP EARLY AM INVERSION
AND BR/FG POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN LOOMS. DRIER RH CROSS SECTIONS LESS
SUGGESTIVE OF STRATUS AS SEEN PAST TWO DAYS. XOVER TEMPS ACRS CWA
IN UPR 60S SUGGEST AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. OPT FOR AREAS
OF FOG MENTION ACRS NWRN/NRN WHERE MARKEDLY SLOWER MIXING OBSERVED
TODAY. MIGRATION OF VORT MAX TO FAR WCNTL INDIANA BY
DAYBREAK...THEN FEATURE CATCHES INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
NORTHERN STREAM AS NRN RIDGE OF REX IS WEAKENS. THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY GREATER SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION POINT
TO LOW CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WED
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE...WE DEAL WITH THESE
PESKY WEAKER SHORT WAVES RIDING THE RIDGE THAT THREATEN TO FIRE
OFF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND THE
SUBTLENESS OF THE PASSING WAVES...OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WED-FRI...BUT LIMITED IT TO MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THAT
WILL BE WHEN MOST INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WAVE TUE/WED...AND EVEN SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TUE NIGHT/WED AM. BUT GIVEN THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. WITH A LITTLE DEEPER
MIXING ACROSS NW/NC INDIANA TODAY... DOUBT THERE WILL BE A REPEAT OF
THE LIFR VSBYS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS AT KSBN. FOG WILL
BURN OFF QUICKLY ON TUE MORNING WITH JUST SCT CU AND VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY. WK CUT-OFF UPR LOW OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE AREA
TUESDAY BUT PRBLY WONT IMPACT KSBN/KFWA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 311958
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
358 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND THIS
MAY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SBCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST 20-25 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION KMZZ INTO WEST
CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG LATENT/DIFFUSE
SFC BOUNDARY AND MODICUM OF DPVA FROM ORPHANED MID LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH LACK OF SIG FORCING FEATURE/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATE CONVECTION AGAIN TO BE LARGELY TIED TO
DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE/DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. LOSS OF CU/WEAK
GRADIENT TO SET STAGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP EARLY AM INVERSION
AND BR/FG POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN LOOMS. DRIER RH CROSS SECTIONS LESS
SUGGESTIVE OF STRATUS AS SEEN PAST TWO DAYS. XOVER TEMPS ACRS CWA
IN UPR 60S SUGGEST AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. OPT FOR AREAS
OF FOG MENTION ACRS NWRN/NRN WHERE MARKEDLY SLOWER MIXING OBSERVED
TODAY. MIGRATION OF VORT MAX TO FAR WCNTL INDIANA BY
DAYBREAK...THEN FEATURE CATCHES INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
NORTHERN STREAM AS NRN RIDGE OF REX IS WEAKENS. THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY GREATER SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION POINT
TO LOW CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WED
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE...WE DEAL WITH THESE
PESKY WEAKER SHORT WAVES RIDING THE RIDGE THAT THREATEN TO FIRE
OFF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND THE
SUBTLENESS OF THE PASSING WAVES...OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WED-FRI...BUT LIMITED IT TO MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THAT
WILL BE WHEN MOST INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WAVE TUE/WED...AND EVEN SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TUE NIGHT/WED AM. BUT GIVEN THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF FORECAST PD. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL
EXISTS YET AGAIN FOR PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS IN BR/FG ACROSS NRN IN.
RELATIVELY LACKLUSTER MIXOUT TODAY/HIGH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS BODE
WELL FOR BR FORMATION TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SHARP SFC BASED INVERSION
PEAKS 10-12 UTC.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 311958
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
358 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND THIS
MAY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SBCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST 20-25 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION KMZZ INTO WEST
CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG LATENT/DIFFUSE
SFC BOUNDARY AND MODICUM OF DPVA FROM ORPHANED MID LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH LACK OF SIG FORCING FEATURE/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATE CONVECTION AGAIN TO BE LARGELY TIED TO
DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE/DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. LOSS OF CU/WEAK
GRADIENT TO SET STAGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP EARLY AM INVERSION
AND BR/FG POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN LOOMS. DRIER RH CROSS SECTIONS LESS
SUGGESTIVE OF STRATUS AS SEEN PAST TWO DAYS. XOVER TEMPS ACRS CWA
IN UPR 60S SUGGEST AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. OPT FOR AREAS
OF FOG MENTION ACRS NWRN/NRN WHERE MARKEDLY SLOWER MIXING OBSERVED
TODAY. MIGRATION OF VORT MAX TO FAR WCNTL INDIANA BY
DAYBREAK...THEN FEATURE CATCHES INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
NORTHERN STREAM AS NRN RIDGE OF REX IS WEAKENS. THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY GREATER SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION POINT
TO LOW CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WED
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE...WE DEAL WITH THESE
PESKY WEAKER SHORT WAVES RIDING THE RIDGE THAT THREATEN TO FIRE
OFF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND THE
SUBTLENESS OF THE PASSING WAVES...OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WED-FRI...BUT LIMITED IT TO MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THAT
WILL BE WHEN MOST INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WAVE TUE/WED...AND EVEN SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TUE NIGHT/WED AM. BUT GIVEN THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF FORECAST PD. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL
EXISTS YET AGAIN FOR PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS IN BR/FG ACROSS NRN IN.
RELATIVELY LACKLUSTER MIXOUT TODAY/HIGH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS BODE
WELL FOR BR FORMATION TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SHARP SFC BASED INVERSION
PEAKS 10-12 UTC.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 311737
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
137 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MUGGY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP ONLY TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AS A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP
UP STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC
TROUGH...LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF
THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP.
DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
RESIDUAL VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME
DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD
BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK
HEATING ON TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN
THE AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED
WITH VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK
PACIFIC ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
AT THIS TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE
QUESTIONABLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO
ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING
TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF FORECAST PD. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL
EXISTS YET AGAIN FOR PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS IN BR/FG ACROSS NRN IN.
RELATIVELY LACKLUSTER MIXOUT TODAY/HIGH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS BODE
WELL FOR BR FORMATION TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SHARP SFC BASED INVERSION
PEAKS 10-12 UTC.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 311725
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1158 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MUGGY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP ONLY TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AS A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP UP
STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC TROUGH...LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN
INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP. DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH
FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE RESIDUAL
VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME DISCERNIBLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK PACIFIC
ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE QUESTIONABLE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 311725
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1158 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MUGGY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP ONLY TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AS A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP UP
STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC TROUGH...LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN
INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP. DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH
FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE RESIDUAL
VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME DISCERNIBLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK PACIFIC
ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE QUESTIONABLE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 311725
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1158 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MUGGY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP ONLY TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AS A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP UP
STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC TROUGH...LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN
INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP. DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH
FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE RESIDUAL
VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME DISCERNIBLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK PACIFIC
ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE QUESTIONABLE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 311725
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1158 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MUGGY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP ONLY TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AS A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP UP
STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC TROUGH...LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN
INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP. DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH
FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE RESIDUAL
VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME DISCERNIBLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK PACIFIC
ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE QUESTIONABLE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 311558
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1158 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MUGGY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP ONLY TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AS A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP UP
STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC TROUGH...LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN
INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP. DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH
FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE RESIDUAL
VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME DISCERNIBLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK PACIFIC
ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE QUESTIONABLE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 311558
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1158 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MUGGY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP ONLY TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AS A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP UP
STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC TROUGH...LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN
INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP. DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH
FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE RESIDUAL
VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME DISCERNIBLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK PACIFIC
ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE QUESTIONABLE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 311041
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
641 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM AND PARTLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE MID 80S. THIS WARM AND MUGGY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP UP
STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC TROUGH...LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN
INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP. DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH
FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE RESIDUAL
VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME DISCERNIBLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK PACIFIC
ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE QUESTIONABLE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

IFR-LIFR STRATUS/FOG AT THE TERMINALS (ESPECIALLY KSBN) SHOULD
RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS
ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. VSBYS/CIGS HAVE IMPROVED OVER
PAST HOUR AT KSBN...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME CONCERN THAT LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SLIGHT
CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED STORM AT KFWA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH
A WEAK SFC FRONT IN THE VICINITY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE/PROBABILITY
REMAINS TO LOW FOR A VCTS MENTION. BR/FG FORMATION MAY ONCE AGAIN
BECOME AN ISSUE BY LATER TONIGHT GIVEN RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE AND LACKING FLOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003>009-012>017.

MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
     004-005.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 311041
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
641 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM AND PARTLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE MID 80S. THIS WARM AND MUGGY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP UP
STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC TROUGH...LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN
INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP. DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH
FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE RESIDUAL
VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME DISCERNIBLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK PACIFIC
ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE QUESTIONABLE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

IFR-LIFR STRATUS/FOG AT THE TERMINALS (ESPECIALLY KSBN) SHOULD
RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS
ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. VSBYS/CIGS HAVE IMPROVED OVER
PAST HOUR AT KSBN...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME CONCERN THAT LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SLIGHT
CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED STORM AT KFWA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH
A WEAK SFC FRONT IN THE VICINITY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE/PROBABILITY
REMAINS TO LOW FOR A VCTS MENTION. BR/FG FORMATION MAY ONCE AGAIN
BECOME AN ISSUE BY LATER TONIGHT GIVEN RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE AND LACKING FLOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003>009-012>017.

MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
     004-005.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 311041
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
641 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM AND PARTLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE MID 80S. THIS WARM AND MUGGY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP UP
STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC TROUGH...LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN
INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP. DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH
FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE RESIDUAL
VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME DISCERNIBLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK PACIFIC
ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE QUESTIONABLE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

IFR-LIFR STRATUS/FOG AT THE TERMINALS (ESPECIALLY KSBN) SHOULD
RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS
ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. VSBYS/CIGS HAVE IMPROVED OVER
PAST HOUR AT KSBN...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME CONCERN THAT LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SLIGHT
CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED STORM AT KFWA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH
A WEAK SFC FRONT IN THE VICINITY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE/PROBABILITY
REMAINS TO LOW FOR A VCTS MENTION. BR/FG FORMATION MAY ONCE AGAIN
BECOME AN ISSUE BY LATER TONIGHT GIVEN RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE AND LACKING FLOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003>009-012>017.

MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
     004-005.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 311041
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
641 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM AND PARTLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE MID 80S. THIS WARM AND MUGGY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP UP
STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC TROUGH...LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN
INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP. DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH
FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE RESIDUAL
VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME DISCERNIBLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK PACIFIC
ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE QUESTIONABLE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

IFR-LIFR STRATUS/FOG AT THE TERMINALS (ESPECIALLY KSBN) SHOULD
RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS
ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. VSBYS/CIGS HAVE IMPROVED OVER
PAST HOUR AT KSBN...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME CONCERN THAT LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SLIGHT
CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED STORM AT KFWA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH
A WEAK SFC FRONT IN THE VICINITY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE/PROBABILITY
REMAINS TO LOW FOR A VCTS MENTION. BR/FG FORMATION MAY ONCE AGAIN
BECOME AN ISSUE BY LATER TONIGHT GIVEN RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE AND LACKING FLOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003>009-012>017.

MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
     004-005.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 310736
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
336 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM AND PARTLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE MID 80S. THIS WARM AND MUGGY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP UP
STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC TROUGH...LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN
INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP. DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH
FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE RESIDUAL
VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME DISCERNIBLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK PACIFIC
ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE QUESTIONABLE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003>009-012>017.

MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
     004-005.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 310736
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
336 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM AND PARTLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE MID 80S. THIS WARM AND MUGGY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP UP
STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC TROUGH...LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN
INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP. DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH
FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE RESIDUAL
VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME DISCERNIBLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK PACIFIC
ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE QUESTIONABLE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003>009-012>017.

MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
     004-005.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 310509
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM AND PARTLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE MID 80S. THIS WARM AND MUGGY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN CWA WITH SBCAPES TO 2000-2500
J/KG AS SFC T/TD REACH THE MID 80S/UPR 60S...HIEST ACRS FAR SERN
CWA. FOCUS FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROF PASSING THROUGH SERN
HALF OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AID IN CONTINUED UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MEAGER
COVERAGE GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY SWD MOVG MID
TROP VORTICY OVR SERN MI PER WV IMAGERY TO AID IN GENERAL ASCENT
THI AFTN/EVE. CONVECTION STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE WITH
MARKED DOWNTREND IN CHCS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

CONCERN FOR BR/FG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. EXPANSIVE
STRATUS/VSBY REDUCTIONS NEATH UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE/NWRN CWA QUITE SLOW
IN MIXING TODAY. GIVEN WEAK/NIL SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH
925MB RH FIELDS...STRATUS/BR TO LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AGAIN OVER
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. 10-15 KT FLOW AT 925MB SHOULD SERVE TO
SUFFICIENTLY MIX BLYR FOR STRATUS BLOSSOM. ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS FAR
SRN/SERN CWA ASSOCD WITH SFC DPS POOLED TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ALONG
DIFFUSE SFC FEATURE AND POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL VORTICITY /CURRENTLY
ACRS FAR WRN KY/ SWEPT INTO VORT CHANNEL/INTO CNTL IN. LITTLE CHANGE
WRT TEMPERATURES...SAVE FOR A COOLER/DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT ALONG
BERRIEN CO SHORELINE/KBEH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ITS LOOKING TO BE A TOASTY WEEK. THE 500MB RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 17-
20C...WHICH PUTS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HOWEVER ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEK. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES ALOFT THAT MODELS GENERATE CONVECTION FOR TUE-FRI. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY MENTIONABLE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES...I
AM HESITANT TO INCLUDE ANY POPS AT ALL...EXCEPT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES MOVES THROUGH. HAVE LIMITED THESE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP...EXPECT IT TO BE ISOLATED AND NON-SEVERE. OTHERWISE...KEPT
CONDITIONS DRY THU THROUGH SUN...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-
STORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL.

ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003>009-012-014-016-017.

MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
     004-005.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...DODSON
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 310509
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM AND PARTLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE MID 80S. THIS WARM AND MUGGY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN CWA WITH SBCAPES TO 2000-2500
J/KG AS SFC T/TD REACH THE MID 80S/UPR 60S...HIEST ACRS FAR SERN
CWA. FOCUS FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROF PASSING THROUGH SERN
HALF OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AID IN CONTINUED UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MEAGER
COVERAGE GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY SWD MOVG MID
TROP VORTICY OVR SERN MI PER WV IMAGERY TO AID IN GENERAL ASCENT
THI AFTN/EVE. CONVECTION STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE WITH
MARKED DOWNTREND IN CHCS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

CONCERN FOR BR/FG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. EXPANSIVE
STRATUS/VSBY REDUCTIONS NEATH UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE/NWRN CWA QUITE SLOW
IN MIXING TODAY. GIVEN WEAK/NIL SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH
925MB RH FIELDS...STRATUS/BR TO LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AGAIN OVER
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. 10-15 KT FLOW AT 925MB SHOULD SERVE TO
SUFFICIENTLY MIX BLYR FOR STRATUS BLOSSOM. ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS FAR
SRN/SERN CWA ASSOCD WITH SFC DPS POOLED TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ALONG
DIFFUSE SFC FEATURE AND POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL VORTICITY /CURRENTLY
ACRS FAR WRN KY/ SWEPT INTO VORT CHANNEL/INTO CNTL IN. LITTLE CHANGE
WRT TEMPERATURES...SAVE FOR A COOLER/DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT ALONG
BERRIEN CO SHORELINE/KBEH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ITS LOOKING TO BE A TOASTY WEEK. THE 500MB RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 17-
20C...WHICH PUTS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HOWEVER ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEK. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES ALOFT THAT MODELS GENERATE CONVECTION FOR TUE-FRI. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY MENTIONABLE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES...I
AM HESITANT TO INCLUDE ANY POPS AT ALL...EXCEPT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES MOVES THROUGH. HAVE LIMITED THESE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP...EXPECT IT TO BE ISOLATED AND NON-SEVERE. OTHERWISE...KEPT
CONDITIONS DRY THU THROUGH SUN...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-
STORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL.

ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003>009-012-014-016-017.

MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
     004-005.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...DODSON
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 310509
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM AND PARTLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE MID 80S. THIS WARM AND MUGGY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN CWA WITH SBCAPES TO 2000-2500
J/KG AS SFC T/TD REACH THE MID 80S/UPR 60S...HIEST ACRS FAR SERN
CWA. FOCUS FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROF PASSING THROUGH SERN
HALF OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AID IN CONTINUED UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MEAGER
COVERAGE GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY SWD MOVG MID
TROP VORTICY OVR SERN MI PER WV IMAGERY TO AID IN GENERAL ASCENT
THI AFTN/EVE. CONVECTION STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE WITH
MARKED DOWNTREND IN CHCS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

CONCERN FOR BR/FG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. EXPANSIVE
STRATUS/VSBY REDUCTIONS NEATH UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE/NWRN CWA QUITE SLOW
IN MIXING TODAY. GIVEN WEAK/NIL SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH
925MB RH FIELDS...STRATUS/BR TO LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AGAIN OVER
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. 10-15 KT FLOW AT 925MB SHOULD SERVE TO
SUFFICIENTLY MIX BLYR FOR STRATUS BLOSSOM. ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS FAR
SRN/SERN CWA ASSOCD WITH SFC DPS POOLED TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ALONG
DIFFUSE SFC FEATURE AND POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL VORTICITY /CURRENTLY
ACRS FAR WRN KY/ SWEPT INTO VORT CHANNEL/INTO CNTL IN. LITTLE CHANGE
WRT TEMPERATURES...SAVE FOR A COOLER/DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT ALONG
BERRIEN CO SHORELINE/KBEH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ITS LOOKING TO BE A TOASTY WEEK. THE 500MB RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 17-
20C...WHICH PUTS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HOWEVER ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEK. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES ALOFT THAT MODELS GENERATE CONVECTION FOR TUE-FRI. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY MENTIONABLE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES...I
AM HESITANT TO INCLUDE ANY POPS AT ALL...EXCEPT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES MOVES THROUGH. HAVE LIMITED THESE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP...EXPECT IT TO BE ISOLATED AND NON-SEVERE. OTHERWISE...KEPT
CONDITIONS DRY THU THROUGH SUN...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-
STORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL.

ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003>009-012-014-016-017.

MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
     004-005.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...DODSON
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 310509
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM AND PARTLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE MID 80S. THIS WARM AND MUGGY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN CWA WITH SBCAPES TO 2000-2500
J/KG AS SFC T/TD REACH THE MID 80S/UPR 60S...HIEST ACRS FAR SERN
CWA. FOCUS FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROF PASSING THROUGH SERN
HALF OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AID IN CONTINUED UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MEAGER
COVERAGE GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY SWD MOVG MID
TROP VORTICY OVR SERN MI PER WV IMAGERY TO AID IN GENERAL ASCENT
THI AFTN/EVE. CONVECTION STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE WITH
MARKED DOWNTREND IN CHCS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

CONCERN FOR BR/FG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. EXPANSIVE
STRATUS/VSBY REDUCTIONS NEATH UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE/NWRN CWA QUITE SLOW
IN MIXING TODAY. GIVEN WEAK/NIL SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH
925MB RH FIELDS...STRATUS/BR TO LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AGAIN OVER
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. 10-15 KT FLOW AT 925MB SHOULD SERVE TO
SUFFICIENTLY MIX BLYR FOR STRATUS BLOSSOM. ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS FAR
SRN/SERN CWA ASSOCD WITH SFC DPS POOLED TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ALONG
DIFFUSE SFC FEATURE AND POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL VORTICITY /CURRENTLY
ACRS FAR WRN KY/ SWEPT INTO VORT CHANNEL/INTO CNTL IN. LITTLE CHANGE
WRT TEMPERATURES...SAVE FOR A COOLER/DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT ALONG
BERRIEN CO SHORELINE/KBEH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ITS LOOKING TO BE A TOASTY WEEK. THE 500MB RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 17-
20C...WHICH PUTS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HOWEVER ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEK. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES ALOFT THAT MODELS GENERATE CONVECTION FOR TUE-FRI. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY MENTIONABLE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES...I
AM HESITANT TO INCLUDE ANY POPS AT ALL...EXCEPT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES MOVES THROUGH. HAVE LIMITED THESE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP...EXPECT IT TO BE ISOLATED AND NON-SEVERE. OTHERWISE...KEPT
CONDITIONS DRY THU THROUGH SUN...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-
STORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL.

ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003>009-012-014-016-017.

MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
     004-005.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...DODSON
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 302351
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
751 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND OHIO MONDAY
AFTERNOON... OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH AREAS OF FOG LIKELY LATE.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN CWA WITH SBCAPES TO 2000-2500
J/KG AS SFC T/TD REACH THE MID 80S/UPR 60S...HIEST ACRS FAR SERN
CWA. FOCUS FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROF PASSING THROUGH SERN
HALF OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AID IN CONTINUED UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MEAGER
COVERAGE GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY SWD MOVG MID
TROP VORTICY OVR SERN MI PER WV IMAGERY TO AID IN GENERAL ASCENT
THI AFTN/EVE. CONVECTION STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE WITH
MARKED DOWNTREND IN CHCS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

CONCERN FOR BR/FG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. EXPANSIVE
STRATUS/VSBY REDUCTIONS NEATH UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE/NWRN CWA QUITE SLOW
IN MIXING TODAY. GIVEN WEAK/NIL SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH
925MB RH FIELDS...STRATUS/BR TO LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AGAIN OVER
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. 10-15 KT FLOW AT 925MB SHOULD SERVE TO
SUFFICIENTLY MIX BLYR FOR STRATUS BLOSSOM. ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS FAR
SRN/SERN CWA ASSOCD WITH SFC DPS POOLED TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ALONG
DIFFUSE SFC FEATURE AND POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL VORTICITY /CURRENTLY
ACRS FAR WRN KY/ SWEPT INTO VORT CHANNEL/INTO CNTL IN. LITTLE CHANGE
WRT TEMPERATURES...SAVE FOR A COOLER/DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT ALONG
BERRIEN CO SHORELINE/KBEH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ITS LOOKING TO BE A TOASTY WEEK. THE 500MB RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 17-
20C...WHICH PUTS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HOWEVER ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEK. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES ALOFT THAT MODELS GENERATE CONVECTION FOR TUE-FRI. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY MENTIONABLE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES...I
AM HESITANT TO INCLUDE ANY POPS AT ALL...EXCEPT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES MOVES THROUGH. HAVE LIMITED THESE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP...EXPECT IT TO BE ISOLATED AND NON-SEVERE. OTHERWISE...KEPT
CONDITIONS DRY THU THROUGH SUN...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-
STORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL.

ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CU OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO FOG/STRATUS WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DVLPG LATE TONIGHT... THEN BURNING OFF BY
LATE MORNING WITH PREDOMINANTLY SCT CU AND VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...DODSON
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 302351
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
751 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND OHIO MONDAY
AFTERNOON... OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH AREAS OF FOG LIKELY LATE.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN CWA WITH SBCAPES TO 2000-2500
J/KG AS SFC T/TD REACH THE MID 80S/UPR 60S...HIEST ACRS FAR SERN
CWA. FOCUS FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROF PASSING THROUGH SERN
HALF OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AID IN CONTINUED UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MEAGER
COVERAGE GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY SWD MOVG MID
TROP VORTICY OVR SERN MI PER WV IMAGERY TO AID IN GENERAL ASCENT
THI AFTN/EVE. CONVECTION STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE WITH
MARKED DOWNTREND IN CHCS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

CONCERN FOR BR/FG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. EXPANSIVE
STRATUS/VSBY REDUCTIONS NEATH UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE/NWRN CWA QUITE SLOW
IN MIXING TODAY. GIVEN WEAK/NIL SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH
925MB RH FIELDS...STRATUS/BR TO LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AGAIN OVER
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. 10-15 KT FLOW AT 925MB SHOULD SERVE TO
SUFFICIENTLY MIX BLYR FOR STRATUS BLOSSOM. ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS FAR
SRN/SERN CWA ASSOCD WITH SFC DPS POOLED TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ALONG
DIFFUSE SFC FEATURE AND POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL VORTICITY /CURRENTLY
ACRS FAR WRN KY/ SWEPT INTO VORT CHANNEL/INTO CNTL IN. LITTLE CHANGE
WRT TEMPERATURES...SAVE FOR A COOLER/DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT ALONG
BERRIEN CO SHORELINE/KBEH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ITS LOOKING TO BE A TOASTY WEEK. THE 500MB RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 17-
20C...WHICH PUTS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HOWEVER ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEK. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES ALOFT THAT MODELS GENERATE CONVECTION FOR TUE-FRI. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY MENTIONABLE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES...I
AM HESITANT TO INCLUDE ANY POPS AT ALL...EXCEPT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES MOVES THROUGH. HAVE LIMITED THESE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP...EXPECT IT TO BE ISOLATED AND NON-SEVERE. OTHERWISE...KEPT
CONDITIONS DRY THU THROUGH SUN...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-
STORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL.

ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CU OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO FOG/STRATUS WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DVLPG LATE TONIGHT... THEN BURNING OFF BY
LATE MORNING WITH PREDOMINANTLY SCT CU AND VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...DODSON
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 302351
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
751 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND OHIO MONDAY
AFTERNOON... OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH AREAS OF FOG LIKELY LATE.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN CWA WITH SBCAPES TO 2000-2500
J/KG AS SFC T/TD REACH THE MID 80S/UPR 60S...HIEST ACRS FAR SERN
CWA. FOCUS FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROF PASSING THROUGH SERN
HALF OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AID IN CONTINUED UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MEAGER
COVERAGE GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY SWD MOVG MID
TROP VORTICY OVR SERN MI PER WV IMAGERY TO AID IN GENERAL ASCENT
THI AFTN/EVE. CONVECTION STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE WITH
MARKED DOWNTREND IN CHCS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

CONCERN FOR BR/FG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. EXPANSIVE
STRATUS/VSBY REDUCTIONS NEATH UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE/NWRN CWA QUITE SLOW
IN MIXING TODAY. GIVEN WEAK/NIL SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH
925MB RH FIELDS...STRATUS/BR TO LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AGAIN OVER
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. 10-15 KT FLOW AT 925MB SHOULD SERVE TO
SUFFICIENTLY MIX BLYR FOR STRATUS BLOSSOM. ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS FAR
SRN/SERN CWA ASSOCD WITH SFC DPS POOLED TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ALONG
DIFFUSE SFC FEATURE AND POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL VORTICITY /CURRENTLY
ACRS FAR WRN KY/ SWEPT INTO VORT CHANNEL/INTO CNTL IN. LITTLE CHANGE
WRT TEMPERATURES...SAVE FOR A COOLER/DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT ALONG
BERRIEN CO SHORELINE/KBEH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ITS LOOKING TO BE A TOASTY WEEK. THE 500MB RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 17-
20C...WHICH PUTS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HOWEVER ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEK. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES ALOFT THAT MODELS GENERATE CONVECTION FOR TUE-FRI. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY MENTIONABLE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES...I
AM HESITANT TO INCLUDE ANY POPS AT ALL...EXCEPT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES MOVES THROUGH. HAVE LIMITED THESE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP...EXPECT IT TO BE ISOLATED AND NON-SEVERE. OTHERWISE...KEPT
CONDITIONS DRY THU THROUGH SUN...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-
STORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL.

ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CU OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO FOG/STRATUS WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DVLPG LATE TONIGHT... THEN BURNING OFF BY
LATE MORNING WITH PREDOMINANTLY SCT CU AND VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...DODSON
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 302351
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
751 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND OHIO MONDAY
AFTERNOON... OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH AREAS OF FOG LIKELY LATE.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN CWA WITH SBCAPES TO 2000-2500
J/KG AS SFC T/TD REACH THE MID 80S/UPR 60S...HIEST ACRS FAR SERN
CWA. FOCUS FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROF PASSING THROUGH SERN
HALF OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AID IN CONTINUED UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MEAGER
COVERAGE GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY SWD MOVG MID
TROP VORTICY OVR SERN MI PER WV IMAGERY TO AID IN GENERAL ASCENT
THI AFTN/EVE. CONVECTION STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE WITH
MARKED DOWNTREND IN CHCS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

CONCERN FOR BR/FG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. EXPANSIVE
STRATUS/VSBY REDUCTIONS NEATH UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE/NWRN CWA QUITE SLOW
IN MIXING TODAY. GIVEN WEAK/NIL SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH
925MB RH FIELDS...STRATUS/BR TO LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AGAIN OVER
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. 10-15 KT FLOW AT 925MB SHOULD SERVE TO
SUFFICIENTLY MIX BLYR FOR STRATUS BLOSSOM. ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS FAR
SRN/SERN CWA ASSOCD WITH SFC DPS POOLED TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ALONG
DIFFUSE SFC FEATURE AND POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL VORTICITY /CURRENTLY
ACRS FAR WRN KY/ SWEPT INTO VORT CHANNEL/INTO CNTL IN. LITTLE CHANGE
WRT TEMPERATURES...SAVE FOR A COOLER/DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT ALONG
BERRIEN CO SHORELINE/KBEH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ITS LOOKING TO BE A TOASTY WEEK. THE 500MB RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 17-
20C...WHICH PUTS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HOWEVER ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEK. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES ALOFT THAT MODELS GENERATE CONVECTION FOR TUE-FRI. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY MENTIONABLE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES...I
AM HESITANT TO INCLUDE ANY POPS AT ALL...EXCEPT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES MOVES THROUGH. HAVE LIMITED THESE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP...EXPECT IT TO BE ISOLATED AND NON-SEVERE. OTHERWISE...KEPT
CONDITIONS DRY THU THROUGH SUN...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-
STORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL.

ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CU OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO FOG/STRATUS WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DVLPG LATE TONIGHT... THEN BURNING OFF BY
LATE MORNING WITH PREDOMINANTLY SCT CU AND VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...DODSON
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 301959
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
359 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EAST CENTRAL INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...AND
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FOG TO REDEVELOP. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN CWA WITH SBCAPES TO 2000-2500
J/KG AS SFC T/TD REACH THE MID 80S/UPR 60S...HIEST ACRS FAR SERN
CWA. FOCUS FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROF PASSING THROUGH SERN
HALF OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AID IN CONTINUED UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MEAGER
COVERAGE GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY SWD MOVG MID
TROP VORTICY OVR SERN MI PER WV IMAGERY TO AID IN GENERAL ASCENT
THI AFTN/EVE. CONVECTION STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE WITH
MARKED DOWNTREND IN CHCS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

CONCERN FOR BR/FG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. EXPANSIVE
STRATUS/VSBY REDUCTIONS NEATH UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE/NWRN CWA QUITE SLOW
IN MIXING TODAY. GIVEN WEAK/NIL SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH
925MB RH FIELDS...STRATUS/BR TO LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AGAIN OVER
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. 10-15 KT FLOW AT 925MB SHOULD SERVE TO
SUFFICIENTLY MIX BLYR FOR STRATUS BLOSSOM. ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS FAR
SRN/SERN CWA ASSOCD WITH SFC DPS POOLED TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ALONG
DIFFUSE SFC FEATURE AND POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL VORTICITY /CURRENTLY
ACRS FAR WRN KY/ SWEPT INTO VORT CHANNEL/INTO CNTL IN. LITTLE CHANGE
WRT TEMPERATURES...SAVE FOR A COOLER/DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT ALONG
BERRIEN CO SHORELINE/KBEH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ITS LOOKING TO BE A TOASTY WEEK. THE 500MB RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 17-
20C...WHICH PUTS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HOWEVER ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEK. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES ALOFT THAT MODELS GENERATE CONVECTION FOR TUE-FRI. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY MENTIONABLE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES...I
AM HESITANT TO INCLUDE ANY POPS AT ALL...EXCEPT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES MOVES THROUGH. HAVE LIMITED THESE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP...EXPECT IT TO BE ISOLATED AND NON-SEVERE. OTHERWISE...KEPT
CONDITIONS DRY THU THROUGH SUN...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-
STORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL.

ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH SLOW MIXOUT ACROSS NRN IL/NWRN IN
LENDS DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO BR/STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT
LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD. BY DAYBREAK 10-15 KTS COINCIDENT WITH
HIGH 925MB RH SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS TO LIKELY REFORM AROUND
08-10 UTC...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF SLOW IMPROVEMENT SEEN UPSTREAM
TODAY. BR/FG ALSO A CONCERN AS WELL...ESPCLY AT KSBN WITH HIGHER
XOVER TEMP.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...DODSON
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 301959
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
359 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EAST CENTRAL INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...AND
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FOG TO REDEVELOP. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN CWA WITH SBCAPES TO 2000-2500
J/KG AS SFC T/TD REACH THE MID 80S/UPR 60S...HIEST ACRS FAR SERN
CWA. FOCUS FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROF PASSING THROUGH SERN
HALF OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AID IN CONTINUED UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MEAGER
COVERAGE GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY SWD MOVG MID
TROP VORTICY OVR SERN MI PER WV IMAGERY TO AID IN GENERAL ASCENT
THI AFTN/EVE. CONVECTION STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE WITH
MARKED DOWNTREND IN CHCS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

CONCERN FOR BR/FG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. EXPANSIVE
STRATUS/VSBY REDUCTIONS NEATH UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE/NWRN CWA QUITE SLOW
IN MIXING TODAY. GIVEN WEAK/NIL SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH
925MB RH FIELDS...STRATUS/BR TO LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AGAIN OVER
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. 10-15 KT FLOW AT 925MB SHOULD SERVE TO
SUFFICIENTLY MIX BLYR FOR STRATUS BLOSSOM. ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS FAR
SRN/SERN CWA ASSOCD WITH SFC DPS POOLED TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ALONG
DIFFUSE SFC FEATURE AND POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL VORTICITY /CURRENTLY
ACRS FAR WRN KY/ SWEPT INTO VORT CHANNEL/INTO CNTL IN. LITTLE CHANGE
WRT TEMPERATURES...SAVE FOR A COOLER/DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT ALONG
BERRIEN CO SHORELINE/KBEH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ITS LOOKING TO BE A TOASTY WEEK. THE 500MB RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 17-
20C...WHICH PUTS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HOWEVER ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEK. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES ALOFT THAT MODELS GENERATE CONVECTION FOR TUE-FRI. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY MENTIONABLE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES...I
AM HESITANT TO INCLUDE ANY POPS AT ALL...EXCEPT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES MOVES THROUGH. HAVE LIMITED THESE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP...EXPECT IT TO BE ISOLATED AND NON-SEVERE. OTHERWISE...KEPT
CONDITIONS DRY THU THROUGH SUN...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-
STORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL.

ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH SLOW MIXOUT ACROSS NRN IL/NWRN IN
LENDS DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO BR/STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT
LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD. BY DAYBREAK 10-15 KTS COINCIDENT WITH
HIGH 925MB RH SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS TO LIKELY REFORM AROUND
08-10 UTC...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF SLOW IMPROVEMENT SEEN UPSTREAM
TODAY. BR/FG ALSO A CONCERN AS WELL...ESPCLY AT KSBN WITH HIGHER
XOVER TEMP.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...DODSON
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 301959
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
359 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EAST CENTRAL INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S...AND
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FOG TO REDEVELOP. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN CWA WITH SBCAPES TO 2000-2500
J/KG AS SFC T/TD REACH THE MID 80S/UPR 60S...HIEST ACRS FAR SERN
CWA. FOCUS FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROF PASSING THROUGH SERN
HALF OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AID IN CONTINUED UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MEAGER
COVERAGE GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY SWD MOVG MID
TROP VORTICY OVR SERN MI PER WV IMAGERY TO AID IN GENERAL ASCENT
THI AFTN/EVE. CONVECTION STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE WITH
MARKED DOWNTREND IN CHCS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

CONCERN FOR BR/FG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. EXPANSIVE
STRATUS/VSBY REDUCTIONS NEATH UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE/NWRN CWA QUITE SLOW
IN MIXING TODAY. GIVEN WEAK/NIL SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH
925MB RH FIELDS...STRATUS/BR TO LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AGAIN OVER
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. 10-15 KT FLOW AT 925MB SHOULD SERVE TO
SUFFICIENTLY MIX BLYR FOR STRATUS BLOSSOM. ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS FAR
SRN/SERN CWA ASSOCD WITH SFC DPS POOLED TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ALONG
DIFFUSE SFC FEATURE AND POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL VORTICITY /CURRENTLY
ACRS FAR WRN KY/ SWEPT INTO VORT CHANNEL/INTO CNTL IN. LITTLE CHANGE
WRT TEMPERATURES...SAVE FOR A COOLER/DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT ALONG
BERRIEN CO SHORELINE/KBEH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ITS LOOKING TO BE A TOASTY WEEK. THE 500MB RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 17-
20C...WHICH PUTS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HOWEVER ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEK. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES ALOFT THAT MODELS GENERATE CONVECTION FOR TUE-FRI. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY MENTIONABLE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES...I
AM HESITANT TO INCLUDE ANY POPS AT ALL...EXCEPT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES MOVES THROUGH. HAVE LIMITED THESE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP...EXPECT IT TO BE ISOLATED AND NON-SEVERE. OTHERWISE...KEPT
CONDITIONS DRY THU THROUGH SUN...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-
STORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL.

ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH SLOW MIXOUT ACROSS NRN IL/NWRN IN
LENDS DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO BR/STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT
LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD. BY DAYBREAK 10-15 KTS COINCIDENT WITH
HIGH 925MB RH SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS TO LIKELY REFORM AROUND
08-10 UTC...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF SLOW IMPROVEMENT SEEN UPSTREAM
TODAY. BR/FG ALSO A CONCERN AS WELL...ESPCLY AT KSBN WITH HIGHER
XOVER TEMP.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...DODSON
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 301748
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
148 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S. NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE/DECAY SLOWLY
EAST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WHILE AT
THE SFC A SUBTLE/DIFFUSE TROUGH (ENHANCED BY LAKE MICHIGAN OVER
NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI AS OF THIS WRITING) SINKS INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA. DRYING ALOFT OVER VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING
ACROSS NW IN/SW LOWER MI IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGESTING THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MI
SHORELINE.

CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS (ISOLATED AT BEST) APPEAR RATHER LOW
(5-15%) THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND WANING
LIFT/MOISTURE QUALITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID-
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE (DRIER AIR ALOFT DEFINITELY MAKING INROADS
PER MORNING WATER VAPOR). SCT SHOWER/ISO THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE
A BIT (15-35 PERCENT...HIGHEST ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR) MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING GIVEN EXPECTATIONS
FOR WEAK SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION/HEATING (NEAR 1000 J/KG
POSSIBLE IF AFTN HIGHS REACH THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS LINGER IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S) AND WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS MENTIONED ABOVE. AS
FOR LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT/CALM WINDS, CLEARING SKIES, AND RESIDUAL
NEAR SFC MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL DECAY ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SPRAWLED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. THIS VERY WEAK FORCING COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT
THIS POINT WITH EXPECTATION THAT ANY BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF LOCAL AREA.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH THIS UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY FOLDING
OVER THE WEAK SHEARED UPPER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW LEVEL
TEMPS WILL PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEAK UPPER
WAVE...BETTER INSOLATION ON MONDAY SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

BY TUESDAY...REMNANTS OF THIS WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH SUFFICIENT NEAR SFC BASED
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR AT LEAST WEAK AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA POPS FOR TUESDAY DUE TO COMBINATION OF
THIS WEAK UPPER FORCING DURING PEAK HEATING. DID CONTEMPLATE
REMOVING WX MENTION FOR WED/THU...BUT HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED ISOLD
DAYTIME POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC
PERTURBATIONS TEMPORARILY SUPPRESS BUILDING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING...
WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EACH DAY. CONTINUED TEMP MODERATION SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED
TUE/WED BY SOME WAA INDUCED CLOUDINESS...BUT STILL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR BOTH DAYS.

REAMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS ANY
ADDITIONAL LOW END PRECIP CHANCES BY FRI/SAT WITH SOME INDICATIONS
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TO KEEP FURTHER TEMP MODERATION IN CHECK
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN MID 80S AND LOWS IN MID 60S FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH SLOW MIXOUT ACROSS NRN IL/NWRN IN
LENDS DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO BR/STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT
LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD. BY DAYBREAK 10-15 KTS COINCIDENT WITH
HIGH 925MB RH SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS TO LIKELY REFORM AROUND
08-10 UTC...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF SLOW IMPROVEMENT SEEN UPSTREAM
TODAY. BR/FG ALSO A CONCERN AS WELL...ESPCLY AT KSBN WITH HIGHER
XOVER TEMP.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 301748
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
148 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S. NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE/DECAY SLOWLY
EAST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WHILE AT
THE SFC A SUBTLE/DIFFUSE TROUGH (ENHANCED BY LAKE MICHIGAN OVER
NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI AS OF THIS WRITING) SINKS INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA. DRYING ALOFT OVER VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING
ACROSS NW IN/SW LOWER MI IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGESTING THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MI
SHORELINE.

CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS (ISOLATED AT BEST) APPEAR RATHER LOW
(5-15%) THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND WANING
LIFT/MOISTURE QUALITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID-
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE (DRIER AIR ALOFT DEFINITELY MAKING INROADS
PER MORNING WATER VAPOR). SCT SHOWER/ISO THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE
A BIT (15-35 PERCENT...HIGHEST ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR) MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING GIVEN EXPECTATIONS
FOR WEAK SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION/HEATING (NEAR 1000 J/KG
POSSIBLE IF AFTN HIGHS REACH THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS LINGER IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S) AND WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS MENTIONED ABOVE. AS
FOR LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT/CALM WINDS, CLEARING SKIES, AND RESIDUAL
NEAR SFC MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL DECAY ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SPRAWLED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. THIS VERY WEAK FORCING COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT
THIS POINT WITH EXPECTATION THAT ANY BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF LOCAL AREA.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH THIS UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY FOLDING
OVER THE WEAK SHEARED UPPER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW LEVEL
TEMPS WILL PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEAK UPPER
WAVE...BETTER INSOLATION ON MONDAY SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

BY TUESDAY...REMNANTS OF THIS WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH SUFFICIENT NEAR SFC BASED
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR AT LEAST WEAK AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA POPS FOR TUESDAY DUE TO COMBINATION OF
THIS WEAK UPPER FORCING DURING PEAK HEATING. DID CONTEMPLATE
REMOVING WX MENTION FOR WED/THU...BUT HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED ISOLD
DAYTIME POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC
PERTURBATIONS TEMPORARILY SUPPRESS BUILDING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING...
WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EACH DAY. CONTINUED TEMP MODERATION SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED
TUE/WED BY SOME WAA INDUCED CLOUDINESS...BUT STILL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR BOTH DAYS.

REAMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS ANY
ADDITIONAL LOW END PRECIP CHANCES BY FRI/SAT WITH SOME INDICATIONS
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TO KEEP FURTHER TEMP MODERATION IN CHECK
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN MID 80S AND LOWS IN MID 60S FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH SLOW MIXOUT ACROSS NRN IL/NWRN IN
LENDS DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO BR/STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT
LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD. BY DAYBREAK 10-15 KTS COINCIDENT WITH
HIGH 925MB RH SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS TO LIKELY REFORM AROUND
08-10 UTC...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF SLOW IMPROVEMENT SEEN UPSTREAM
TODAY. BR/FG ALSO A CONCERN AS WELL...ESPCLY AT KSBN WITH HIGHER
XOVER TEMP.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 301748
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
148 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S. NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE/DECAY SLOWLY
EAST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WHILE AT
THE SFC A SUBTLE/DIFFUSE TROUGH (ENHANCED BY LAKE MICHIGAN OVER
NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI AS OF THIS WRITING) SINKS INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA. DRYING ALOFT OVER VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING
ACROSS NW IN/SW LOWER MI IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGESTING THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MI
SHORELINE.

CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS (ISOLATED AT BEST) APPEAR RATHER LOW
(5-15%) THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND WANING
LIFT/MOISTURE QUALITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID-
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE (DRIER AIR ALOFT DEFINITELY MAKING INROADS
PER MORNING WATER VAPOR). SCT SHOWER/ISO THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE
A BIT (15-35 PERCENT...HIGHEST ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR) MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING GIVEN EXPECTATIONS
FOR WEAK SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION/HEATING (NEAR 1000 J/KG
POSSIBLE IF AFTN HIGHS REACH THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS LINGER IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S) AND WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS MENTIONED ABOVE. AS
FOR LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT/CALM WINDS, CLEARING SKIES, AND RESIDUAL
NEAR SFC MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL DECAY ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SPRAWLED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. THIS VERY WEAK FORCING COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT
THIS POINT WITH EXPECTATION THAT ANY BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF LOCAL AREA.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH THIS UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY FOLDING
OVER THE WEAK SHEARED UPPER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW LEVEL
TEMPS WILL PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEAK UPPER
WAVE...BETTER INSOLATION ON MONDAY SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

BY TUESDAY...REMNANTS OF THIS WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH SUFFICIENT NEAR SFC BASED
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR AT LEAST WEAK AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA POPS FOR TUESDAY DUE TO COMBINATION OF
THIS WEAK UPPER FORCING DURING PEAK HEATING. DID CONTEMPLATE
REMOVING WX MENTION FOR WED/THU...BUT HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED ISOLD
DAYTIME POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC
PERTURBATIONS TEMPORARILY SUPPRESS BUILDING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING...
WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EACH DAY. CONTINUED TEMP MODERATION SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED
TUE/WED BY SOME WAA INDUCED CLOUDINESS...BUT STILL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR BOTH DAYS.

REAMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS ANY
ADDITIONAL LOW END PRECIP CHANCES BY FRI/SAT WITH SOME INDICATIONS
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TO KEEP FURTHER TEMP MODERATION IN CHECK
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN MID 80S AND LOWS IN MID 60S FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH SLOW MIXOUT ACROSS NRN IL/NWRN IN
LENDS DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO BR/STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT
LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD. BY DAYBREAK 10-15 KTS COINCIDENT WITH
HIGH 925MB RH SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS TO LIKELY REFORM AROUND
08-10 UTC...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF SLOW IMPROVEMENT SEEN UPSTREAM
TODAY. BR/FG ALSO A CONCERN AS WELL...ESPCLY AT KSBN WITH HIGHER
XOVER TEMP.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 301748
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
148 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S. NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE/DECAY SLOWLY
EAST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WHILE AT
THE SFC A SUBTLE/DIFFUSE TROUGH (ENHANCED BY LAKE MICHIGAN OVER
NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI AS OF THIS WRITING) SINKS INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA. DRYING ALOFT OVER VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING
ACROSS NW IN/SW LOWER MI IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGESTING THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MI
SHORELINE.

CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS (ISOLATED AT BEST) APPEAR RATHER LOW
(5-15%) THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND WANING
LIFT/MOISTURE QUALITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID-
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE (DRIER AIR ALOFT DEFINITELY MAKING INROADS
PER MORNING WATER VAPOR). SCT SHOWER/ISO THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE
A BIT (15-35 PERCENT...HIGHEST ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR) MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING GIVEN EXPECTATIONS
FOR WEAK SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION/HEATING (NEAR 1000 J/KG
POSSIBLE IF AFTN HIGHS REACH THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS LINGER IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S) AND WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS MENTIONED ABOVE. AS
FOR LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT/CALM WINDS, CLEARING SKIES, AND RESIDUAL
NEAR SFC MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL DECAY ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SPRAWLED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. THIS VERY WEAK FORCING COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT
THIS POINT WITH EXPECTATION THAT ANY BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF LOCAL AREA.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH THIS UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY FOLDING
OVER THE WEAK SHEARED UPPER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW LEVEL
TEMPS WILL PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEAK UPPER
WAVE...BETTER INSOLATION ON MONDAY SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

BY TUESDAY...REMNANTS OF THIS WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH SUFFICIENT NEAR SFC BASED
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR AT LEAST WEAK AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA POPS FOR TUESDAY DUE TO COMBINATION OF
THIS WEAK UPPER FORCING DURING PEAK HEATING. DID CONTEMPLATE
REMOVING WX MENTION FOR WED/THU...BUT HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED ISOLD
DAYTIME POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC
PERTURBATIONS TEMPORARILY SUPPRESS BUILDING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING...
WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EACH DAY. CONTINUED TEMP MODERATION SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED
TUE/WED BY SOME WAA INDUCED CLOUDINESS...BUT STILL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR BOTH DAYS.

REAMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS ANY
ADDITIONAL LOW END PRECIP CHANCES BY FRI/SAT WITH SOME INDICATIONS
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TO KEEP FURTHER TEMP MODERATION IN CHECK
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN MID 80S AND LOWS IN MID 60S FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH SLOW MIXOUT ACROSS NRN IL/NWRN IN
LENDS DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO BR/STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT
LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD. BY DAYBREAK 10-15 KTS COINCIDENT WITH
HIGH 925MB RH SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS TO LIKELY REFORM AROUND
08-10 UTC...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF SLOW IMPROVEMENT SEEN UPSTREAM
TODAY. BR/FG ALSO A CONCERN AS WELL...ESPCLY AT KSBN WITH HIGHER
XOVER TEMP.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 301047
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
647 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POTENTIALLY SOME SUNSHINE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S. NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE/DECAY SLOWLY
EAST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WHILE AT
THE SFC A SUBTLE/DIFFUSE TROUGH (ENHANCED BY LAKE MICHIGAN OVER
NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI AS OF THIS WRITING) SINKS INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA. DRYING ALOFT OVER VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING
ACROSS NW IN/SW LOWER MI IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGESTING THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MI
SHORELINE.

CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS (ISOLATED AT BEST) APPEAR RATHER LOW
(5-15%) THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND WANING
LIFT/MOISTURE QUALITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID-
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE (DRIER AIR ALOFT DEFINITELY MAKING INROADS
PER MORNING WATER VAPOR). SCT SHOWER/ISO THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE
A BIT (15-35 PERCENT...HIGHEST ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR) MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING GIVEN EXPECTATIONS
FOR WEAK SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION/HEATING (NEAR 1000 J/KG
POSSIBLE IF AFTN HIGHS REACH THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS LINGER IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S) AND WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS MENTIONED ABOVE. AS
FOR LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT/CALM WINDS, CLEARING SKIES, AND RESIDUAL
NEAR SFC MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL DECAY ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SPRAWLED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. THIS VERY WEAK FORCING COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT
THIS POINT WITH EXPECTATION THAT ANY BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF LOCAL AREA.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH THIS UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY FOLDING
OVER THE WEAK SHEARED UPPER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW LEVEL
TEMPS WILL PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEAK UPPER
WAVE...BETTER INSOLATION ON MONDAY SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

BY TUESDAY...REMNANTS OF THIS WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH SUFFICIENT NEAR SFC BASED
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR AT LEAST WEAK AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA POPS FOR TUESDAY DUE TO COMBINATION OF
THIS WEAK UPPER FORCING DURING PEAK HEATING. DID CONTEMPLATE
REMOVING WX MENTION FOR WED/THU...BUT HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED ISOLD
DAYTIME POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC
PERTURBATIONS TEMPORARILY SUPPRESS BUILDING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING...
WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EACH DAY. CONTINUED TEMP MODERATION SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED
TUE/WED BY SOME WAA INDUCED CLOUDINESS...BUT STILL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR BOTH DAYS.

REAMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS ANY
ADDITIONAL LOW END PRECIP CHANCES BY FRI/SAT WITH SOME INDICATIONS
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TO KEEP FURTHER TEMP MODERATION IN CHECK
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN MID 80S AND LOWS IN MID 60S FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIGHT/CALM WINDS...DRYING ALOFT...AND MOIST LOW LEVELS IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS ALLOWED LIFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG TO
SETTLE INTO KSBN THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX UP/OUT
LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND CONTINUED
DRYING. LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR SHORTLY
AFTER 13Z...AND THEN TO MVFR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 14Z. LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT KFWA WHERE BR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
VARIABLE FARTHER REMOVED FROM SFC TROUGH...WITH SCT-BKN CU FIELD
TODAY EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR RANGE. SFC
HEATING AND LINGERING MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE ALONG SHEAR AXIS DOES
BRING INTO QUESTION ISOLATED STORM CHANCES BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE/CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOO LOW FOR A VCTS MENTION
ATTM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 301047
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
647 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POTENTIALLY SOME SUNSHINE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S. NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE/DECAY SLOWLY
EAST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WHILE AT
THE SFC A SUBTLE/DIFFUSE TROUGH (ENHANCED BY LAKE MICHIGAN OVER
NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI AS OF THIS WRITING) SINKS INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA. DRYING ALOFT OVER VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING
ACROSS NW IN/SW LOWER MI IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGESTING THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MI
SHORELINE.

CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS (ISOLATED AT BEST) APPEAR RATHER LOW
(5-15%) THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND WANING
LIFT/MOISTURE QUALITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID-
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE (DRIER AIR ALOFT DEFINITELY MAKING INROADS
PER MORNING WATER VAPOR). SCT SHOWER/ISO THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE
A BIT (15-35 PERCENT...HIGHEST ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR) MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING GIVEN EXPECTATIONS
FOR WEAK SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION/HEATING (NEAR 1000 J/KG
POSSIBLE IF AFTN HIGHS REACH THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS LINGER IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S) AND WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS MENTIONED ABOVE. AS
FOR LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT/CALM WINDS, CLEARING SKIES, AND RESIDUAL
NEAR SFC MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL DECAY ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SPRAWLED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. THIS VERY WEAK FORCING COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT
THIS POINT WITH EXPECTATION THAT ANY BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF LOCAL AREA.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH THIS UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY FOLDING
OVER THE WEAK SHEARED UPPER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW LEVEL
TEMPS WILL PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEAK UPPER
WAVE...BETTER INSOLATION ON MONDAY SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

BY TUESDAY...REMNANTS OF THIS WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH SUFFICIENT NEAR SFC BASED
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR AT LEAST WEAK AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA POPS FOR TUESDAY DUE TO COMBINATION OF
THIS WEAK UPPER FORCING DURING PEAK HEATING. DID CONTEMPLATE
REMOVING WX MENTION FOR WED/THU...BUT HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED ISOLD
DAYTIME POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC
PERTURBATIONS TEMPORARILY SUPPRESS BUILDING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING...
WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EACH DAY. CONTINUED TEMP MODERATION SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED
TUE/WED BY SOME WAA INDUCED CLOUDINESS...BUT STILL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR BOTH DAYS.

REAMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS ANY
ADDITIONAL LOW END PRECIP CHANCES BY FRI/SAT WITH SOME INDICATIONS
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TO KEEP FURTHER TEMP MODERATION IN CHECK
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN MID 80S AND LOWS IN MID 60S FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIGHT/CALM WINDS...DRYING ALOFT...AND MOIST LOW LEVELS IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS ALLOWED LIFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG TO
SETTLE INTO KSBN THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX UP/OUT
LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND CONTINUED
DRYING. LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR SHORTLY
AFTER 13Z...AND THEN TO MVFR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 14Z. LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT KFWA WHERE BR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
VARIABLE FARTHER REMOVED FROM SFC TROUGH...WITH SCT-BKN CU FIELD
TODAY EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR RANGE. SFC
HEATING AND LINGERING MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE ALONG SHEAR AXIS DOES
BRING INTO QUESTION ISOLATED STORM CHANCES BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE/CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOO LOW FOR A VCTS MENTION
ATTM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 301047
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
647 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POTENTIALLY SOME SUNSHINE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S. NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE/DECAY SLOWLY
EAST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WHILE AT
THE SFC A SUBTLE/DIFFUSE TROUGH (ENHANCED BY LAKE MICHIGAN OVER
NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI AS OF THIS WRITING) SINKS INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA. DRYING ALOFT OVER VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING
ACROSS NW IN/SW LOWER MI IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGESTING THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MI
SHORELINE.

CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS (ISOLATED AT BEST) APPEAR RATHER LOW
(5-15%) THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND WANING
LIFT/MOISTURE QUALITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID-
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE (DRIER AIR ALOFT DEFINITELY MAKING INROADS
PER MORNING WATER VAPOR). SCT SHOWER/ISO THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE
A BIT (15-35 PERCENT...HIGHEST ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR) MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING GIVEN EXPECTATIONS
FOR WEAK SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION/HEATING (NEAR 1000 J/KG
POSSIBLE IF AFTN HIGHS REACH THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS LINGER IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S) AND WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS MENTIONED ABOVE. AS
FOR LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT/CALM WINDS, CLEARING SKIES, AND RESIDUAL
NEAR SFC MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL DECAY ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SPRAWLED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. THIS VERY WEAK FORCING COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT
THIS POINT WITH EXPECTATION THAT ANY BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF LOCAL AREA.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH THIS UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY FOLDING
OVER THE WEAK SHEARED UPPER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW LEVEL
TEMPS WILL PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEAK UPPER
WAVE...BETTER INSOLATION ON MONDAY SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

BY TUESDAY...REMNANTS OF THIS WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH SUFFICIENT NEAR SFC BASED
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR AT LEAST WEAK AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA POPS FOR TUESDAY DUE TO COMBINATION OF
THIS WEAK UPPER FORCING DURING PEAK HEATING. DID CONTEMPLATE
REMOVING WX MENTION FOR WED/THU...BUT HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED ISOLD
DAYTIME POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC
PERTURBATIONS TEMPORARILY SUPPRESS BUILDING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING...
WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EACH DAY. CONTINUED TEMP MODERATION SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED
TUE/WED BY SOME WAA INDUCED CLOUDINESS...BUT STILL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR BOTH DAYS.

REAMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS ANY
ADDITIONAL LOW END PRECIP CHANCES BY FRI/SAT WITH SOME INDICATIONS
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TO KEEP FURTHER TEMP MODERATION IN CHECK
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN MID 80S AND LOWS IN MID 60S FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIGHT/CALM WINDS...DRYING ALOFT...AND MOIST LOW LEVELS IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS ALLOWED LIFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG TO
SETTLE INTO KSBN THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX UP/OUT
LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND CONTINUED
DRYING. LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR SHORTLY
AFTER 13Z...AND THEN TO MVFR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 14Z. LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT KFWA WHERE BR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
VARIABLE FARTHER REMOVED FROM SFC TROUGH...WITH SCT-BKN CU FIELD
TODAY EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR RANGE. SFC
HEATING AND LINGERING MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE ALONG SHEAR AXIS DOES
BRING INTO QUESTION ISOLATED STORM CHANCES BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE/CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOO LOW FOR A VCTS MENTION
ATTM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 301047
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
647 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POTENTIALLY SOME SUNSHINE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S. NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE/DECAY SLOWLY
EAST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WHILE AT
THE SFC A SUBTLE/DIFFUSE TROUGH (ENHANCED BY LAKE MICHIGAN OVER
NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI AS OF THIS WRITING) SINKS INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA. DRYING ALOFT OVER VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING
ACROSS NW IN/SW LOWER MI IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGESTING THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MI
SHORELINE.

CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS (ISOLATED AT BEST) APPEAR RATHER LOW
(5-15%) THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND WANING
LIFT/MOISTURE QUALITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID-
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE (DRIER AIR ALOFT DEFINITELY MAKING INROADS
PER MORNING WATER VAPOR). SCT SHOWER/ISO THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE
A BIT (15-35 PERCENT...HIGHEST ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR) MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING GIVEN EXPECTATIONS
FOR WEAK SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION/HEATING (NEAR 1000 J/KG
POSSIBLE IF AFTN HIGHS REACH THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS LINGER IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S) AND WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS MENTIONED ABOVE. AS
FOR LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT/CALM WINDS, CLEARING SKIES, AND RESIDUAL
NEAR SFC MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL DECAY ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SPRAWLED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. THIS VERY WEAK FORCING COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT
THIS POINT WITH EXPECTATION THAT ANY BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF LOCAL AREA.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH THIS UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY FOLDING
OVER THE WEAK SHEARED UPPER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW LEVEL
TEMPS WILL PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEAK UPPER
WAVE...BETTER INSOLATION ON MONDAY SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

BY TUESDAY...REMNANTS OF THIS WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH SUFFICIENT NEAR SFC BASED
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR AT LEAST WEAK AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA POPS FOR TUESDAY DUE TO COMBINATION OF
THIS WEAK UPPER FORCING DURING PEAK HEATING. DID CONTEMPLATE
REMOVING WX MENTION FOR WED/THU...BUT HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED ISOLD
DAYTIME POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC
PERTURBATIONS TEMPORARILY SUPPRESS BUILDING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING...
WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EACH DAY. CONTINUED TEMP MODERATION SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED
TUE/WED BY SOME WAA INDUCED CLOUDINESS...BUT STILL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR BOTH DAYS.

REAMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS ANY
ADDITIONAL LOW END PRECIP CHANCES BY FRI/SAT WITH SOME INDICATIONS
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TO KEEP FURTHER TEMP MODERATION IN CHECK
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN MID 80S AND LOWS IN MID 60S FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIGHT/CALM WINDS...DRYING ALOFT...AND MOIST LOW LEVELS IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS ALLOWED LIFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG TO
SETTLE INTO KSBN THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX UP/OUT
LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND CONTINUED
DRYING. LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR SHORTLY
AFTER 13Z...AND THEN TO MVFR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 14Z. LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT KFWA WHERE BR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
VARIABLE FARTHER REMOVED FROM SFC TROUGH...WITH SCT-BKN CU FIELD
TODAY EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR RANGE. SFC
HEATING AND LINGERING MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE ALONG SHEAR AXIS DOES
BRING INTO QUESTION ISOLATED STORM CHANCES BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE/CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOO LOW FOR A VCTS MENTION
ATTM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 300753
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
353 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POTENTIALLY SOME SUNSHINE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S. NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE/DECAY SLOWLY
EAST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WHILE AT
THE SFC A SUBTLE/DIFFUSE TROUGH (ENHANCED BY LAKE MICHIGAN OVER
NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI AS OF THIS WRITING) SINKS INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA. DRYING ALOFT OVER VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING
ACROSS NW IN/SW LOWER MI IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGESTING THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MI
SHORELINE.

CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS (ISOLATED AT BEST) APPEAR RATHER LOW
(5-15%) THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND WANING
LIFT/MOISTURE QUALITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID-
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE (DRIER AIR ALOFT DEFINITELY MAKING INROADS
PER MORNING WATER VAPOR). SCT SHOWER/ISO THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE
A BIT (15-35 PERCENT...HIGHEST ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR) MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING GIVEN EXPECTATIONS
FOR WEAK SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION/HEATING (NEAR 1000 J/KG
POSSIBLE IF AFTN HIGHS REACH THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS LINGER IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S) AND WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS MENTIONED ABOVE. AS
FOR LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT/CALM WINDS, CLEARING SKIES, AND RESIDUAL
NEAR SFC MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL DECAY ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SPRAWLED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. THIS VERY WEAK FORCING COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT
THIS POINT WITH EXPECTATION THAT ANY BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF LOCAL AREA.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH THIS UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY FOLDING
OVER THE WEAK SHEARED UPPER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW LEVEL
TEMPS WILL PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEAK UPPER
WAVE...BETTER INSOLATION ON MONDAY SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

BY TUESDAY...REMNANTS OF THIS WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH SUFFICIENT NEAR SFC BASED
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR AT LEAST WEAK AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA POPS FOR TUESDAY DUE TO COMBINATION OF
THIS WEAK UPPER FORCING DURING PEAK HEATING. DID CONTEMPLATE
REMOVING WX MENTION FOR WED/THU...BUT HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED ISOLD
DAYTIME POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC
PERTURBATIONS TEMPORARILY SUPPRESS BUILDING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING...
WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EACH DAY. CONTINUED TEMP MODERATION SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED
TUE/WED BY SOME WAA INDUCED CLOUDINESS...BUT STILL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR BOTH DAYS.

REAMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS ANY
ADDITIONAL LOW END PRECIP CHANCES BY FRI/SAT WITH SOME INDICATIONS
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TO KEEP FURTHER TEMP MODERATION IN CHECK
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN MID 80S AND LOWS IN MID 60S FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY DETERIORATE EARLY THIS
MORNING AT KSBN NEAR DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY. LIGHT WINDS/MOIST LOW
LEVELS NEAR THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH SOME DRYING ALOFT...SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS/FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK...WITH
IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS (POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER) WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KFWA THROUGH APPROXIMATELY  08-09Z AS SUBTLE
VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PROPAGATES
THROUGH. OTHERWISE...COULD SEE TIMES OF MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING
HERE...WITH A SCT/BKN CLOUD DECK MOST LIKELY BTW 3-7 KFT FOR MOST
OF THE TAF CYCLE.

COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA ALONG WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS...BUT
COVERAGE/CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW ATTM FOR A SHRA/VCTS MENTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 300753
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
353 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POTENTIALLY SOME SUNSHINE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S. NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE/DECAY SLOWLY
EAST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WHILE AT
THE SFC A SUBTLE/DIFFUSE TROUGH (ENHANCED BY LAKE MICHIGAN OVER
NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI AS OF THIS WRITING) SINKS INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA. DRYING ALOFT OVER VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING
ACROSS NW IN/SW LOWER MI IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH...WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGESTING THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MI
SHORELINE.

CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS (ISOLATED AT BEST) APPEAR RATHER LOW
(5-15%) THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND WANING
LIFT/MOISTURE QUALITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID-
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE (DRIER AIR ALOFT DEFINITELY MAKING INROADS
PER MORNING WATER VAPOR). SCT SHOWER/ISO THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE
A BIT (15-35 PERCENT...HIGHEST ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR) MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING GIVEN EXPECTATIONS
FOR WEAK SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION/HEATING (NEAR 1000 J/KG
POSSIBLE IF AFTN HIGHS REACH THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS LINGER IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S) AND WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS MENTIONED ABOVE. AS
FOR LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT/CALM WINDS, CLEARING SKIES, AND RESIDUAL
NEAR SFC MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL DECAY ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SPRAWLED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. THIS VERY WEAK FORCING COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT
THIS POINT WITH EXPECTATION THAT ANY BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF LOCAL AREA.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH THIS UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY FOLDING
OVER THE WEAK SHEARED UPPER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW LEVEL
TEMPS WILL PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEAK UPPER
WAVE...BETTER INSOLATION ON MONDAY SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

BY TUESDAY...REMNANTS OF THIS WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH SUFFICIENT NEAR SFC BASED
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR AT LEAST WEAK AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA POPS FOR TUESDAY DUE TO COMBINATION OF
THIS WEAK UPPER FORCING DURING PEAK HEATING. DID CONTEMPLATE
REMOVING WX MENTION FOR WED/THU...BUT HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED ISOLD
DAYTIME POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC
PERTURBATIONS TEMPORARILY SUPPRESS BUILDING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING...
WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD AFTERNOON CONVECTION
EACH DAY. CONTINUED TEMP MODERATION SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED
TUE/WED BY SOME WAA INDUCED CLOUDINESS...BUT STILL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR BOTH DAYS.

REAMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS ANY
ADDITIONAL LOW END PRECIP CHANCES BY FRI/SAT WITH SOME INDICATIONS
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TO KEEP FURTHER TEMP MODERATION IN CHECK
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN MID 80S AND LOWS IN MID 60S FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY DETERIORATE EARLY THIS
MORNING AT KSBN NEAR DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY. LIGHT WINDS/MOIST LOW
LEVELS NEAR THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH SOME DRYING ALOFT...SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS/FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK...WITH
IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS (POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER) WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KFWA THROUGH APPROXIMATELY  08-09Z AS SUBTLE
VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PROPAGATES
THROUGH. OTHERWISE...COULD SEE TIMES OF MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING
HERE...WITH A SCT/BKN CLOUD DECK MOST LIKELY BTW 3-7 KFT FOR MOST
OF THE TAF CYCLE.

COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA ALONG WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS...BUT
COVERAGE/CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW ATTM FOR A SHRA/VCTS MENTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 300503
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
103 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POTENTIALLY SOME SUNSHINE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S. NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 300MB JET STREAK THAT
HELPED SUSTAIN PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH/NORTHWEST EARLIER TODAY
WILL MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA THIS EVENING....THOUGH IT
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE
500MB TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER OUR NORTHWEST NOW...AND WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES SUNDAY MORNING. DEEPEST MOISTURE
ALSO DIMINISHES GRADUALLY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IA SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE PER PWATS OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES
AND 500-700MB RH COLLOCATED WITH BEST RADAR RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHIFTING EASTWARD
AND DIMINISHING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS BETTER FORCING/DEEPER MOISTURE
EXIT THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...RECENT/ONGOING RAINFALL...AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...ADDED IN PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY MORNING JUST PRIOR TO THE
DEPARTURE OF THE DIMINISHING 500MB TROUGH. EXPECT PATCHY/AREAS OF
FOG TO DIMINISH BY MID-LATE MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH
TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF FORCING. DESPITE THIS...SOME MODELS SUGGEST SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
KEPT LOWER END-CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 70S AND LOW
80S...COOLEST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT
OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS SITUATED OVER THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
WEAKENS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE OH
VALLEY. BY TUE AN UPPER SHORT WAVE LIFTS NEWD INTO THE GTLKS REGION
CAUSING THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE GTLKS REGION BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TUE/WED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING BEING THE MORE
PRONOUNCED PERIODS FOR PRECIP CHANCES. THU THE RIDGE AXIS REDEVELOPS
WEST OF INDIANA ALLOWING FOR IMPULSES TO DROP SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER
GTLKS. THIS WILL CONT AFTN PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK ASCENT PRESENT
THROUGH FRI. STRONG INSTABILITY ISN`T EXPECTED SO GENERAL AFTN
SCATTERED TSTMS AGAIN. THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIP
SHOULD PRECLUDE TEMPS BREAKING 90 SO CONT MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY DETERIORATE EARLY THIS
MORNING AT KSBN NEAR DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY. LIGHT WINDS/MOIST LOW
LEVELS NEAR THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH SOME DRYING ALOFT...SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS/FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK...WITH
IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS (POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER) WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KFWA THROUGH APPROXIMATELY  08-09Z AS SUBTLE
VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PROPAGATES
THROUGH. OTHERWISE...COULD SEE TIMES OF MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING
HERE...WITH A SCT/BKN CLOUD DECK MOST LIKELY BTW 3-7 KFT FOR MOST
OF THE TAF CYCLE.

COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA ALONG WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS...BUT
COVERAGE/CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW ATTM FOR A SHRA/VCTS MENTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 300503
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
103 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POTENTIALLY SOME SUNSHINE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S. NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 300MB JET STREAK THAT
HELPED SUSTAIN PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH/NORTHWEST EARLIER TODAY
WILL MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA THIS EVENING....THOUGH IT
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE
500MB TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER OUR NORTHWEST NOW...AND WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES SUNDAY MORNING. DEEPEST MOISTURE
ALSO DIMINISHES GRADUALLY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IA SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE PER PWATS OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES
AND 500-700MB RH COLLOCATED WITH BEST RADAR RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHIFTING EASTWARD
AND DIMINISHING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS BETTER FORCING/DEEPER MOISTURE
EXIT THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...RECENT/ONGOING RAINFALL...AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...ADDED IN PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY MORNING JUST PRIOR TO THE
DEPARTURE OF THE DIMINISHING 500MB TROUGH. EXPECT PATCHY/AREAS OF
FOG TO DIMINISH BY MID-LATE MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH
TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF FORCING. DESPITE THIS...SOME MODELS SUGGEST SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
KEPT LOWER END-CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 70S AND LOW
80S...COOLEST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT
OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS SITUATED OVER THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
WEAKENS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE OH
VALLEY. BY TUE AN UPPER SHORT WAVE LIFTS NEWD INTO THE GTLKS REGION
CAUSING THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE GTLKS REGION BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TUE/WED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING BEING THE MORE
PRONOUNCED PERIODS FOR PRECIP CHANCES. THU THE RIDGE AXIS REDEVELOPS
WEST OF INDIANA ALLOWING FOR IMPULSES TO DROP SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER
GTLKS. THIS WILL CONT AFTN PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK ASCENT PRESENT
THROUGH FRI. STRONG INSTABILITY ISN`T EXPECTED SO GENERAL AFTN
SCATTERED TSTMS AGAIN. THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIP
SHOULD PRECLUDE TEMPS BREAKING 90 SO CONT MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY DETERIORATE EARLY THIS
MORNING AT KSBN NEAR DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY. LIGHT WINDS/MOIST LOW
LEVELS NEAR THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH SOME DRYING ALOFT...SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS/FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK...WITH
IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS (POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER) WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KFWA THROUGH APPROXIMATELY  08-09Z AS SUBTLE
VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PROPAGATES
THROUGH. OTHERWISE...COULD SEE TIMES OF MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING
HERE...WITH A SCT/BKN CLOUD DECK MOST LIKELY BTW 3-7 KFT FOR MOST
OF THE TAF CYCLE.

COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA ALONG WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS...BUT
COVERAGE/CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW ATTM FOR A SHRA/VCTS MENTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 300503
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
103 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POTENTIALLY SOME SUNSHINE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S. NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 300MB JET STREAK THAT
HELPED SUSTAIN PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH/NORTHWEST EARLIER TODAY
WILL MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA THIS EVENING....THOUGH IT
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE
500MB TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER OUR NORTHWEST NOW...AND WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES SUNDAY MORNING. DEEPEST MOISTURE
ALSO DIMINISHES GRADUALLY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IA SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE PER PWATS OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES
AND 500-700MB RH COLLOCATED WITH BEST RADAR RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHIFTING EASTWARD
AND DIMINISHING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS BETTER FORCING/DEEPER MOISTURE
EXIT THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...RECENT/ONGOING RAINFALL...AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...ADDED IN PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY MORNING JUST PRIOR TO THE
DEPARTURE OF THE DIMINISHING 500MB TROUGH. EXPECT PATCHY/AREAS OF
FOG TO DIMINISH BY MID-LATE MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH
TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF FORCING. DESPITE THIS...SOME MODELS SUGGEST SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
KEPT LOWER END-CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 70S AND LOW
80S...COOLEST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT
OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS SITUATED OVER THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
WEAKENS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE OH
VALLEY. BY TUE AN UPPER SHORT WAVE LIFTS NEWD INTO THE GTLKS REGION
CAUSING THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE GTLKS REGION BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TUE/WED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING BEING THE MORE
PRONOUNCED PERIODS FOR PRECIP CHANCES. THU THE RIDGE AXIS REDEVELOPS
WEST OF INDIANA ALLOWING FOR IMPULSES TO DROP SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER
GTLKS. THIS WILL CONT AFTN PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK ASCENT PRESENT
THROUGH FRI. STRONG INSTABILITY ISN`T EXPECTED SO GENERAL AFTN
SCATTERED TSTMS AGAIN. THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIP
SHOULD PRECLUDE TEMPS BREAKING 90 SO CONT MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY DETERIORATE EARLY THIS
MORNING AT KSBN NEAR DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY. LIGHT WINDS/MOIST LOW
LEVELS NEAR THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH SOME DRYING ALOFT...SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS/FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK...WITH
IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS (POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER) WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KFWA THROUGH APPROXIMATELY  08-09Z AS SUBTLE
VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PROPAGATES
THROUGH. OTHERWISE...COULD SEE TIMES OF MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING
HERE...WITH A SCT/BKN CLOUD DECK MOST LIKELY BTW 3-7 KFT FOR MOST
OF THE TAF CYCLE.

COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA ALONG WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS...BUT
COVERAGE/CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW ATTM FOR A SHRA/VCTS MENTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 300503
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
103 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POTENTIALLY SOME SUNSHINE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S. NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 300MB JET STREAK THAT
HELPED SUSTAIN PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH/NORTHWEST EARLIER TODAY
WILL MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN/CENTRAL CWA THIS EVENING....THOUGH IT
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE
500MB TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER OUR NORTHWEST NOW...AND WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES SUNDAY MORNING. DEEPEST MOISTURE
ALSO DIMINISHES GRADUALLY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IA SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE PER PWATS OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES
AND 500-700MB RH COLLOCATED WITH BEST RADAR RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHIFTING EASTWARD
AND DIMINISHING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS BETTER FORCING/DEEPER MOISTURE
EXIT THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S OVERNIGHT. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...RECENT/ONGOING RAINFALL...AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...ADDED IN PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY MORNING JUST PRIOR TO THE
DEPARTURE OF THE DIMINISHING 500MB TROUGH. EXPECT PATCHY/AREAS OF
FOG TO DIMINISH BY MID-LATE MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH
TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF FORCING. DESPITE THIS...SOME MODELS SUGGEST SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
KEPT LOWER END-CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 70S AND LOW
80S...COOLEST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT
OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS SITUATED OVER THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
WEAKENS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE OH
VALLEY. BY TUE AN UPPER SHORT WAVE LIFTS NEWD INTO THE GTLKS REGION
CAUSING THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT. ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE GTLKS REGION BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TUE/WED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING BEING THE MORE
PRONOUNCED PERIODS FOR PRECIP CHANCES. THU THE RIDGE AXIS REDEVELOPS
WEST OF INDIANA ALLOWING FOR IMPULSES TO DROP SEWD TOWARD THE LOWER
GTLKS. THIS WILL CONT AFTN PRECIP CHANCES WITH WEAK ASCENT PRESENT
THROUGH FRI. STRONG INSTABILITY ISN`T EXPECTED SO GENERAL AFTN
SCATTERED TSTMS AGAIN. THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIP
SHOULD PRECLUDE TEMPS BREAKING 90 SO CONT MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY DETERIORATE EARLY THIS
MORNING AT KSBN NEAR DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY. LIGHT WINDS/MOIST LOW
LEVELS NEAR THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH SOME DRYING ALOFT...SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS/FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK...WITH
IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS (POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER) WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KFWA THROUGH APPROXIMATELY  08-09Z AS SUBTLE
VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PROPAGATES
THROUGH. OTHERWISE...COULD SEE TIMES OF MVFR THROUGH MID MORNING
HERE...WITH A SCT/BKN CLOUD DECK MOST LIKELY BTW 3-7 KFT FOR MOST
OF THE TAF CYCLE.

COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA ALONG WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS...BUT
COVERAGE/CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW ATTM FOR A SHRA/VCTS MENTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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