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000
FXUS63 KIWX 210955
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
555 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

ONE MORE WARM DAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S AS COOL AND DRY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

PAIR OF PV ANOMALIES CURRENTLY TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA...ONE
WITH A WELL DEFINED "SWIRL" ON MORNING WATER VAPOR...WILL BE THE
MAIN ITEMS TO NOTE FOR TODAY`S SHORT TERM FORECAST. THERE ALSO
EXISTS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...MUDDLED BY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...THAT MAY AID PRECIP
CHANCES SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY AS IT SHEARS NORTHEAST. NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH THOUGH AS A
STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS EXPECTED TO CARVE OUT
A DECENT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE TONIGHT DUE TO
AMPLIFYING PATTERN ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH A CORRESPONDING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR OUR CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BEST
UPPER JET DYNAMICS PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH BUT DECENT MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS AND CORRESPONDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT GIVEN
ADEQUATE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. SOUTHWEST FLOW/THETA-E ADVECTION
FINALLY BEGINS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/RH FIELDS SHOW A HEALTHY REGION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
DOES INCREASE BUT WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG GIVEN LARGELY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL LIKELY
AID THE RESPONSE TO OVERALL MODEST SYNOPTIC FORCING BUT COULD ALSO
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DOUBT
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL
POPS THOUGH AND WILL STICK WITH LIKELY WORDING. ALSO EXPECT PRECIP
TO HOLD OFF FOR MUCH OF THE DAY GIVEN LATE ARRIVAL OF CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AN IDEA SUPPORTED BY
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY AT LEAST
IN THE MID 70S...IF NOT UPPER 70S...GIVEN INCREASING WAA AND MUCH
DEEPER PBL MIXING. NOTE THIS WILL BE IN SPITE OF INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT A SHARP GRADIENT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS DEPENDING ON
EXACT TIMING OF COLD FRONT. AIRMASS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD BUT STEADY CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN COULD ALLOW OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S AROUND 12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

TUESDAY WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. LAKE SHADOW SHOULD SPREAD WELL
INLAND AND KEEP TEMPS ACROSS NW IN AND SW MI IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S AT BEST. REMAINDER OF THE AREA LIKELY TO REBOUND INTO MID
AND UPPER 50S WITH AFTERNOON INSOLATION BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN TUE NIGHT AND
STILL EXPECT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING AND WIDESPREAD FROST LIKELY.

HIGH SLIDES EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING WED AFTN
AND NIGHT. MODELS DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT QPF IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WED NIGHT. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE VERY DRY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AND IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE
LOWER LEVELS. LIKELY SEE VIRGA EVENT WITH SOME POSSIBLE SPRINKLES
OVER THE NW. NOT READY TO INCLUDE THE VERY LOW POPS GIVEN BY
ALLBLEND LOOKING AT THE SIGNIFICANT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN WEST AND IN THE EVENING MOST AREAS. MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENT BY A FEW HOURS BUT STILL WORTHY OF LIKELY POPS WITH
GOOD FORCING ALONG OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA.

SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY FOR
FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCH COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND A STRONG LOW IN
THE WESTERN LAKES WHILE ECMWF IS NOT AS COLD AND FURTHER NORTH. 00Z
GFS IS VERY COLD AT 850MB FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPS AROUND -7C TO
-9C SATURDAY OVER OUR AREA WHILE ECMWF IS IN THE +2C TO +7C RANGE.
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED FOR THE ALLBLEND
WHICH IS STILL QUITE COOL AND SIMILAR TO MEAN MODEL ENSEMBLES.
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE NECESSARY AS DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL THEN DIG OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN A MOIST AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS EVENING. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGESTS PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL AROUND 00Z FOR KSBN AND
03Z FOR KFWA. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR CATEGORY ARE POSSIBLE BUT
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
AIR PUSH BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 210745
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
345 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

ONE MORE WARM DAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S AS COOL AND DRY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

PAIR OF PV ANOMALIES CURRENTLY TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA...ONE
WITH A WELL DEFINED "SWIRL" ON MORNING WATER VAPOR...WILL BE THE
MAIN ITEMS TO NOTE FOR TODAY`S SHORT TERM FORECAST. THERE ALSO
EXISTS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...MUDDLED BY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...THAT MAY AID PRECIP
CHANCES SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY AS IT SHEARS NORTHEAST. NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH THOUGH AS A
STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS EXPECTED TO CARVE OUT
A DECENT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE TONIGHT DUE TO
AMPLIFYING PATTERN ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH A CORRESPONDING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR OUR CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BEST
UPPER JET DYNAMICS PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH BUT DECENT MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS AND CORRESPONDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT GIVEN
ADEQUATE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. SOUTHWEST FLOW/THETA-E ADVECTION
FINALLY BEGINS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/RH FIELDS SHOW A HEALTHY REGION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
DOES INCREASE BUT WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG GIVEN LARGELY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL LIKELY
AID THE RESPONSE TO OVERALL MODEST SYNOPTIC FORCING BUT COULD ALSO
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DOUBT
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL
POPS THOUGH AND WILL STICK WITH LIKELY WORDING. ALSO EXPECT PRECIP
TO HOLD OFF FOR MUCH OF THE DAY GIVEN LATE ARRIVAL OF CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AN IDEA SUPPORTED BY
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY AT LEAST
IN THE MID 70S...IF NOT UPPER 70S...GIVEN INCREASING WAA AND MUCH
DEEPER PBL MIXING. NOTE THIS WILL BE IN SPITE OF INCREASING CLOUD
COVER. EXPECT A SHARP GRADIENT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS DEPENDING ON
EXACT TIMING OF COLD FRONT. AIRMASS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD BUT STEADY CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN COULD ALLOW OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S AROUND 12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

TUESDAY WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. LAKE SHADOW SHOULD SPREAD WELL
INLAND AND KEEP TEMPS ACROSS NW IN AND SW MI IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S AT BEST. REMAINDER OF THE AREA LIKELY TO REBOUND INTO MID
AND UPPER 50S WITH AFTERNOON INSOLATION BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN TUE NIGHT AND
STILL EXPECT A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING AND WIDESPREAD FROST LIKELY.

HIGH SLIDES EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING WED AFTN
AND NIGHT. MODELS DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT QPF IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WED NIGHT. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE VERY DRY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AND IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DIFFICULT TO SATURATE
LOWER LEVELS. LIKELY SEE VIRGA EVENT WITH SOME POSSIBLE SPRINKLES
OVER THE NW. NOT READY TO INCLUDE THE VERY LOW POPS GIVEN BY
ALLBLEND LOOKING AT THE SIGNIFICANT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN WEST AND IN THE EVENING MOST AREAS. MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENT BY A FEW HOURS BUT STILL WORTHY OF LIKELY POPS WITH
GOOD FORCING ALONG OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA.

SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY FOR
FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCH COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND A STRONG LOW IN
THE WESTERN LAKES WHILE ECMWF IS NOT AS COLD AND FURTHER NORTH. 00Z
GFS IS VERY COLD AT 850MB FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPS AROUND -7C TO
-9C SATURDAY OVER OUR AREA WHILE ECMWF IS IN THE +2C TO +7C RANGE.
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED FOR THE ALLBLEND
WHICH IS STILL QUITE COOL AND SIMILAR TO MEAN MODEL ENSEMBLES.
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE NECESSARY AS DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SEND A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COLD FRONT WILL INTERSECT AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ADVECTED NORTH BY SOUTHWEST
FLOW. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY TONIGHT AND BRIEF
REDUCTIONS INTO MVFR CATEGORY ARE POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 210530
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
130 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID 40S EAST TO LOWER
50S WEST BUT REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

SHRTWV MOVG THROUGH SRN SASK/NE MT THIS AFTN WILL MOVE EAST TO
ONTARIO/UPR GRTLKS BY MONDAY EVE AND PHASE WITH SRN PLAINS UPR LOW.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE/LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA OVER
THE NEXT 24HRS WITH SCT SHOWERS DVLPG MON AFTN. WK INSTABILITY AND
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM EXPECTED MONDAY AFTN... SO A FEW
TSTMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MAINLY NW 1/2 OF CWA.

DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS, DRY LOW LEVELS, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT LEAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE M-U40S OVER MOST
OF THE AREA FOLLOWING AFTN HIGHS IN THE L-M70S. WARMER START TO THE
DAY MONDAY COMBINED WITH A LITTLE STRONGER GRADIENT MIXING EXPECTED
TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE M70S DESPITE INCRSG CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ONGOING FCST/GRIDS REFLECT
THE LATEST HANDLING BY THE GFS OF THESE SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP AHEAD OF LATE WEEK SYSTEM...WITH READINGS RISING ABOVE
NORMAL. FOR THIS PACKAGE...FAVORED THE GFS WITH CORRESPONDING MODEL
GUIDANCE TEMPS AND POPS. HOWEVER...THE GFS APPEARS TO BE GENERATING
TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT.
THE GFS HAS HAD GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND APPEARS TO BE
HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS WELL. REJECTED ALLBLEND TEMPS AND RAIN
CHANCES. THE ALLBLEND WAS FINALLY CATCHING UP TO THE GFS AFTER BEING
APPARENTLY TOO WARM EARLIER WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CAN NOT
BUY ALLBLEND RAIN CHANCES THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE ECMWF...ONE OF
THE FEW SUPPORTING WET RUNS HAS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...SO KEPT THIS WEEKEND DRY. THE GFS ADVERTISES A LARGE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WITH A COOL AND DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FETCH OUT OF
CANADA. STILL ON BOARD WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH AREAS OF FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DIP CLOSE TO FREEZING OR BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SEND A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COLD FRONT WILL INTERSECT AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ADVECTED NORTH BY SOUTHWEST
FLOW. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY TONIGHT AND BRIEF
REDUCTIONS INTO MVFR CATEGORY ARE POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 202351
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
751 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID 40S EAST TO LOWER
50S WEST BUT REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

SHRTWV MOVG THROUGH SRN SASK/NE MT THIS AFTN WILL MOVE EAST TO
ONTARIO/UPR GRTLKS BY MONDAY EVE AND PHASE WITH SRN PLAINS UPR LOW.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE/LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA OVER
THE NEXT 24HRS WITH SCT SHOWERS DVLPG MON AFTN. WK INSTABILITY AND
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM EXPECTED MONDAY AFTN... SO A FEW
TSTMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MAINLY NW 1/2 OF CWA.

DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS, DRY LOW LEVELS, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT LEAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE M-U40S OVER MOST
OF THE AREA FOLLOWING AFTN HIGHS IN THE L-M70S. WARMER START TO THE
DAY MONDAY COMBINED WITH A LITTLE STRONGER GRADIENT MIXING EXPECTED
TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE M70S DESPITE INCRSG CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ONGOING FCST/GRIDS REFLECT
THE LATEST HANDLING BY THE GFS OF THESE SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP AHEAD OF LATE WEEK SYSTEM...WITH READINGS RISING ABOVE
NORMAL. FOR THIS PACKAGE...FAVORED THE GFS WITH CORRESPONDING MODEL
GUIDANCE TEMPS AND POPS. HOWEVER...THE GFS APPEARS TO BE GENERATING
TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT.
THE GFS HAS HAD GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND APPEARS TO BE
HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS WELL. REJECTED ALLBLEND TEMPS AND RAIN
CHANCES. THE ALLBLEND WAS FINALLY CATCHING UP TO THE GFS AFTER BEING
APPARENTLY TOO WARM EARLIER WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CAN NOT
BUY ALLBLEND RAIN CHANCES THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE ECMWF...ONE OF
THE FEW SUPPORTING WET RUNS HAS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...SO KEPT THIS WEEKEND DRY. THE GFS ADVERTISES A LARGE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WITH A COOL AND DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FETCH OUT OF
CANADA. STILL ON BOARD WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH AREAS OF FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DIP CLOSE TO FREEZING OR BELOW FREEZING.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PD. SW TROF OVR THE OK
PANHANDLE WILL EJECT NEWD AND SHEAR OUT ON MON AHD OF A MORE
VIGOROUS DIGGING ACRS THE LAKES MON NIGHT. SHALLOW LL MSTR TONGUE
WWD ACRS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL ADVECT EWD YET WKN W/EWD
EXTENT THROUGH TOMORROW. XPC AN INCREASE IN CLD CVR ESP MON AFTN
BUT PER SOLID HIGHRES CONSENSUS WILL HOLD OFF ON A AFTN SHRA
MENTION AT KSBN W/MORE LIKELY TIMING AFT 00Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 202011
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TODAY BUT WILL STILL
SUPPORT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S TODAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

SHRTWV MOVG THROUGH SRN SASK/NE MT THIS AFTN WILL MOVE EAST TO
ONTARIO/UPR GRTLKS BY MONDAY EVE AND PHASE WITH SRN PLAINS UPR LOW.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE/LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA OVER
THE NEXT 24HRS WITH SCT SHOWERS DVLPG MON AFTN. WK INSTABILITY AND
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM EXPECTED MONDAY AFTN... SO A FEW
TSTMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MAINLY NW 1/2 OF CWA.

DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS, DRY LOW LEVELS, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT LEAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE M-U40S OVER MOST
OF THE AREA FOLLOWING AFTN HIGHS IN THE L-M70S. WARMER START TO THE
DAY MONDAY COMBINED WITH A LITTLE STRONGER GRADIENT MIXING EXPECTED
TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE M70S DESPITE INCRSG CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014


A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROFS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER LATE IN THE WEEK. THE ONGOING FCST/GRIDS REFLECT
THE LATEST HANDLING BY THE GFS OF THESE SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP AHEAD OF LATE WEEK SYSTEM...WITH READINGS RISING ABOVE
NORMAL. FOR THIS PACKAGE...FAVORED THE GFS WITH CORRESPONDING MODEL
GUIDANCE TEMPS AND POPS. HOWEVER...THE GFS APPEARS TO BE GENERATING
TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT.
THE GFS HAS HAD GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND APPEARS TO BE
HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS WELL. REJECTED ALLBLEND TEMPS AND RAIN
CHANCES. THE ALLBLEND WAS FINALLY CATCHING UP TO THE GFS AFTER BEING
APPARENTLY TOO WARM EARLIER WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...CAN NOT
BUY ALLBLEND RAIN CHANCES THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE ECMWF...ONE OF
THE FEW SUPPORTING WET RUNS HAS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...SO KEPT THIS WEEKEND DRY. THE GFS ADVERTISES A LARGE SFC
ANTICYCLONE WITH A COOL AND DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FETCH OUT OF
CANADA. STILL ON BOARD WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH AREAS OF FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DIP CLOSE TO FREEZING OR BELOW FREEZING.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL
GRDLY INCREASE ACROSS NRN INDIANA OVER THE NEXT 24HRS AS SHRTWVS
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS MOVE EAST. EXPECT MAINLY BKN
CIRRUS OVERNIGHT WITH SCT-BKN CU MONDAY. SCT SHRA EXPECTED MON
AFTN AS WK INSTABILITY DVLPS AHEAD OF AN APCHG CDFNT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 201702
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
102 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TODAY BUT WILL STILL
SUPPORT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S TODAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

NEARLY PICTURESQUE SPRING DAY ON TAP FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. UPSTREAM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH DRY/STABLE LOW LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING A
SIZABLE INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA. ONLY DETRIMENTAL ASPECT OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS BEING ADVECTED FROM
THE WEST. UPSTREAM CIRRUS DECK LOOKS RATHER THIN/TRANSLUCENT ON
LATEST IR IMAGERY THOUGH AND WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST. LOOSELY FILTERED INSOLATION...VEERING LOW LEVEL
WINDS...AND A WEAKER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
BETTER MIXING DEPTHS AND A MUCH WARMER DAY. MAY NOT BE ABLE TO MIX
ALL THE WAY TO 850MB BUT 875-900MB TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE 11-12C RANGE. THIS YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. INHERITED HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS ALREADY FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH GENERAL MID 70S. HIGH SUN ANGLE...EQUIVALENT TO A
MID AUGUST DAY...AND VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS HAVE ALLOWED FOR DEEPER
THAN EXPECTED MIXING AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS DURING SEVERAL OF
THE PAST FEW DAYS. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE WARM
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MINIMAL CHANGES TO INHERITED GRIDS BUT WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR DIURNAL TEMP TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO TAKE A CORRESPONDING JUMP HIGHER GIVEN WARMER
STARTING TEMPS THIS EVENING. INCREASING CLOUDS AND WEAK WAA MAY
LIMIT DIURNAL LOSSES SOMEWHAT BUT STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DUE TO ONLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND LATE ARRIVAL OF HIGH-BASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE LONG TERM WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED BUT A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. BULK OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH THIS PACKAGE.

PV ANOMALY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL HELP DRIVE
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MODEST MOISTURE
FLUX ALONG BOUNDARY WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT BUT MODELS ALL AGREE ON
GENERATING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM AS PWATS POOL TO
AROUND AN INCH AND MAX 0-3KM THETA E INCREASES TO 320K. STILL EXPECT
QUARTER INCH OR LESS AND SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS.

COOLER AIR RETURNS IN WAKE OF THIS WAVE FOR TUESDAY. LAKE SHADOW AND
MARINE LAYER TO MOVE WELL INLAND DURING THE DAY KEEPING TEMPS DOWN
DESPITE SUBSIDENCE AND AFTERNOON INSOLATION. LATEST BLENDED GUIDANCE
CLOSE TO GOING FORECAST WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN 40S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...MID 50S CENTRAL AND MAYBE REACHING 60 IN FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA TUE NIGHT MAKING
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. VERY DRY PROFILES AND LIGHT WINDS
SUGGEST TEMPS WILL RADIATE QUICKLY TUE NIGHT. KEPT TEMPS IN THE 30
TO 34 DEGREE RANGE FOR NOW BUT CONCERNED FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. WITH GROWING SEASON NOT FULLY UNDERWAY...GROWING
DEGREE DAYS GENERALLY UNDER 75 FOR SEASON SO FAR...WE WILL NOT BE
HEADLINING ANY FROST OR FREEZES. HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN HWO FOR NOW AND INCLUDE FROST POSSIBILITY IN GRIDS.

RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WED NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE IN PLAINS ORGANIZES.
BEST FORCING WEST AND NORTH OF AREA SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THIS
PERIOD DRY DESPITE SOME LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED BY MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS AND LOW POP FROM ALLBLEND. THURSDAY COULD ALSO REMAIN DRY
WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM WELL WEST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WARRANT THE CONTINUATION OF LOW CHANCE POPS. MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THU NIGHT AS GULF IS BRIEFLY
TAPPED AND PWATS INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH WITH THETA E SURGE AND
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING NORTH. CLOSED SYSTEM WILL THEN DRIFT OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY KEEPING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
FORECAST. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR COOLER AIR ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT MODELS HAVE SHOWN A TREND TOWARD SOME MODIFICATION OF AIR
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL
GRDLY INCREASE ACROSS NRN INDIANA OVER THE NEXT 24HRS AS SHRTWVS
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS MOVE EAST. EXPECT MAINLY BKN
CIRRUS OVERNIGHT WITH SCT-BKN CU MONDAY. SCT SHRA EXPECTED MON
AFTN AS WK INSTABILITY DVLPS AHEAD OF AN APCHG CDFNT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 201000
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
600 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TODAY BUT WILL STILL
SUPPORT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S TODAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

NEARLY PICTURESQUE SPRING DAY ON TAP FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. UPSTREAM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH DRY/STABLE LOW LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING A
SIZABLE INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA. ONLY DETRIMENTAL ASPECT OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS BEING ADVECTED FROM
THE WEST. UPSTREAM CIRRUS DECK LOOKS RATHER THIN/TRANSLUCENT ON
LATEST IR IMAGERY THOUGH AND WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST. LOOSELY FILTERED INSOLATION...VEERING LOW LEVEL
WINDS...AND A WEAKER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
BETTER MIXING DEPTHS AND A MUCH WARMER DAY. MAY NOT BE ABLE TO MIX
ALL THE WAY TO 850MB BUT 875-900MB TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE 11-12C RANGE. THIS YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. INHERITED HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS ALREADY FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH GENERAL MID 70S. HIGH SUN ANGLE...EQUIVALENT TO A
MID AUGUST DAY...AND VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS HAVE ALLOWED FOR DEEPER
THAN EXPECTED MIXING AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS DURING SEVERAL OF
THE PAST FEW DAYS. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE WARM
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MINIMAL CHANGES TO INHERITED GRIDS BUT WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR DIURNAL TEMP TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO TAKE A CORRESPONDING JUMP HIGHER GIVEN WARMER
STARTING TEMPS THIS EVENING. INCREASING CLOUDS AND WEAK WAA MAY
LIMIT DIURNAL LOSSES SOMEWHAT BUT STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DUE TO ONLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND LATE ARRIVAL OF HIGH-BASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE LONG TERM WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED BUT A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. BULK OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH THIS PACKAGE.

PV ANOMALY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL HELP DRIVE
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MODEST MOISTURE
FLUX ALONG BOUNDARY WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT BUT MODELS ALL AGREE ON
GENERATING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM AS PWATS POOL TO
AROUND AN INCH AND MAX 0-3KM THETA E INCREASES TO 320K. STILL EXPECT
QUARTER INCH OR LESS AND SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS.

COOLER AIR RETURNS IN WAKE OF THIS WAVE FOR TUESDAY. LAKE SHADOW AND
MARINE LAYER TO MOVE WELL INLAND DURING THE DAY KEEPING TEMPS DOWN
DESPITE SUBSIDENCE AND AFTERNOON INSOLATION. LATEST BLENDED GUIDANCE
CLOSE TO GOING FORECAST WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN 40S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...MID 50S CENTRAL AND MAYBE REACHING 60 IN FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA TUE NIGHT MAKING
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. VERY DRY PROFILES AND LIGHT WINDS
SUGGEST TEMPS WILL RADIATE QUICKLY TUE NIGHT. KEPT TEMPS IN THE 30
TO 34 DEGREE RANGE FOR NOW BUT CONCERNED FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. WITH GROWING SEASON NOT FULLY UNDERWAY...GROWING
DEGREE DAYS GENERALLY UNDER 75 FOR SEASON SO FAR...WE WILL NOT BE
HEADLINING ANY FROST OR FREEZES. HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN HWO FOR NOW AND INCLUDE FROST POSSIBILITY IN GRIDS.

RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WED NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE IN PLAINS ORGANIZES.
BEST FORCING WEST AND NORTH OF AREA SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THIS
PERIOD DRY DESPITE SOME LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED BY MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS AND LOW POP FROM ALLBLEND. THURSDAY COULD ALSO REMAIN DRY
WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM WELL WEST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WARRANT THE CONTINUATION OF LOW CHANCE POPS. MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THU NIGHT AS GULF IS BRIEFLY
TAPPED AND PWATS INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH WITH THETA E SURGE AND
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING NORTH. CLOSED SYSTEM WILL THEN DRIFT OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY KEEPING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
FORECAST. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR COOLER AIR ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT MODELS HAVE SHOWN A TREND TOWARD SOME MODIFICATION OF AIR
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVEN PERSISTENT MIDLEVEL
RIDGING AND A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
BUT ANY CHANCE OF RAIN OR LOWER CIGS REMAINS WELL PAST 12Z
MONDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 200815
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
415 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TODAY BUT WILL STILL
SUPPORT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S TODAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

NEARLY PICTURESQUE SPRING DAY ON TAP FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
TODAY. UPSTREAM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH DRY/STABLE LOW LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING A
SIZABLE INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA. ONLY DETRIMENTAL ASPECT OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS BEING ADVECTED FROM
THE WEST. UPSTREAM CIRRUS DECK LOOKS RATHER THIN/TRANSLUCENT ON
LATEST IR IMAGERY THOUGH AND WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A MOSTLY
SUNNY FORECAST. LOOSELY FILTERED INSOLATION...VEERING LOW LEVEL
WINDS...AND A WEAKER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
BETTER MIXING DEPTHS AND A MUCH WARMER DAY. MAY NOT BE ABLE TO MIX
ALL THE WAY TO 850MB BUT 875-900MB TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE 11-12C RANGE. THIS YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. INHERITED HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS ALREADY FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH GENERAL MID 70S. HIGH SUN ANGLE...EQUIVALENT TO A
MID AUGUST DAY...AND VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS HAVE ALLOWED FOR DEEPER
THAN EXPECTED MIXING AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS DURING SEVERAL OF
THE PAST FEW DAYS. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE WARM
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MINIMAL CHANGES TO INHERITED GRIDS BUT WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR DIURNAL TEMP TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO TAKE A CORRESPONDING JUMP HIGHER GIVEN WARMER
STARTING TEMPS THIS EVENING. INCREASING CLOUDS AND WEAK WAA MAY
LIMIT DIURNAL LOSSES SOMEWHAT BUT STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DUE TO ONLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND LATE ARRIVAL OF HIGH-BASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE LONG TERM WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPERATURES. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED BUT A COUPLE
SHORT WAVES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. BULK OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH THIS PACKAGE.

PV ANOMALY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WILL HELP DRIVE
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MODEST MOISTURE
FLUX ALONG BOUNDARY WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT BUT MODELS ALL AGREE ON
GENERATING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM AS PWATS POOL TO
AROUND AN INCH AND MAX 0-3KM THETA E INCREASES TO 320K. STILL EXPECT
QUARTER INCH OR LESS AND SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS.

COOLER AIR RETURNS IN WAKE OF THIS WAVE FOR TUESDAY. LAKE SHADOW AND
MARINE LAYER TO MOVE WELL INLAND DURING THE DAY KEEPING TEMPS DOWN
DESPITE SUBSIDENCE AND AFTERNOON INSOLATION. LATEST BLENDED GUIDANCE
CLOSE TO GOING FORECAST WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN 40S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...MID 50S CENTRAL AND MAYBE REACHING 60 IN FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA TUE NIGHT MAKING
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. VERY DRY PROFILES AND LIGHT WINDS
SUGGEST TEMPS WILL RADIATE QUICKLY TUE NIGHT. KEPT TEMPS IN THE 30
TO 34 DEGREE RANGE FOR NOW BUT CONCERNED FOR SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. WITH GROWING SEASON NOT FULLY UNDERWAY...GROWING
DEGREE DAYS GENERALLY UNDER 75 FOR SEASON SO FAR...WE WILL NOT BE
HEADLINING ANY FROST OR FREEZES. HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN HWO FOR NOW AND INCLUDE FROST POSSIBILITY IN GRIDS.

RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS WED NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE IN PLAINS ORGANIZES.
BEST FORCING WEST AND NORTH OF AREA SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THIS
PERIOD DRY DESPITE SOME LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED BY MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS AND LOW POP FROM ALLBLEND. THURSDAY COULD ALSO REMAIN DRY
WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM WELL WEST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WARRANT THE CONTINUATION OF LOW CHANCE POPS. MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THU NIGHT AS GULF IS BRIEFLY
TAPPED AND PWATS INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH WITH THETA E SURGE AND
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING NORTH. CLOSED SYSTEM WILL THEN DRIFT OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY KEEPING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
FORECAST. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR COOLER AIR ON SATURDAY IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT MODELS HAVE SHOWN A TREND TOWARD SOME MODIFICATION OF AIR
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS A DRY AND STABLE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT JUST A SCT CIRRUS DECK THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT E/SE WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING SOUTH.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 200523
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
123 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
MID 30S EAST TO THE MID 40S WEST. SUNDAY WILL TURN MUCH WARMER
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

TEMP FORECAST ONLY REAL CONCERN WITH NIL SENSIBLE WEATHER IN
NEAR/SHORT TERM TIMEFRAME GIVEN DEEP DRY/SUBSIDENT REGIME
ENTRENCHED ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION. EASTERLY FLOW WITHIN MIXED
LAYER PER OBS/VWP TO REINFORCE THERMAL TROFFING ACROSS EASTERN
FORECAST AREA FOR MORE SEVERE LONGWAVE NOCTURNAL LOSSES OVERNIGHT.
FAR WESTERN CWA MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN AT LEAST QUASI-MIXED ON
SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF RETREATING RIDGE...AND WHILE OVERALL CHANGES
MINUTE...HAVE STRENGTHENED E/W MIN TEMP GRADIENT. FOR SUNDAY...NEAR
FULL INSOLATION AND RIDGE CENTROID OFF NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE
ANTICIPATE DEEPER MIXING TO ABOUT 850MB/5KFT AGL. DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE MIXING SUGGESTS TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER THAN
CURRENT FORECAST. ALSO SAVE FOR FAR NORTHERN BERRIEN  COUNTY...
BACKGROUND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HOLD LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION TO
JUST OFFSHORE. UNIFORMITY OF NEAR 9.5C 8H TEMPERATURES SHOULD ASSURE
MAX TEMPS IN MID/UPR 70S AS SEEN TODAY ACROSS WESTERN MO.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE ONGOING FORECAST/GRIDS APPEAR TO BE REASONABLY ON TRACK THIS
UPCOMING WEEK GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF TWO SHORT WAVE TROFS AND
ASSOCIATED WEATHER. FAVORED THE GFS THIS PACKAGE WITH GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY...ALTHOUGH THE GFS WAS TRENDING MOST TEMPS DOWN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED THIS COOLER TREND...AND THE
ONGOING TREND TO LOWER LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE LOW TEMPS ARE
SUPPORTED BY THE GFS/MEX...WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 20S SHOWING UP OVER
FAR SW LOWER MICH. CONCERN PERSISTS FOR FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN LARGE
DIURNAL SWINGS EXPECTED WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
LAYERS. AS FOR THUNDER...KEPT SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDER LATE MONDAY
AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE
LIMITED...SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
COMBINED WITH SOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE EMLS/ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS
MAY BE ENOUGH GENERATE A FEW STORMS. A SECOND SHORT WAVE SHOULD
ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS A DRY AND STABLE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT JUST A SCT CIRRUS DECK THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT E/SE WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING SOUTH.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEO/T
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 192315
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
715 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
MID 30S EAST TO THE MID 40S WEST. SUNDAY WILL TURN MUCH WARMER
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

TEMP FORECAST ONLY REAL CONCERN WITH NIL SENSIBLE WEATHER IN
NEAR/SHORT TERM TIMEFRAME GIVEN DEEP DRY/SUBSIDENT REGIME
ENTRENCHED ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION. EASTERLY FLOW WITHIN MIXED
LAYER PER OBS/VWP TO REINFORCE THERMAL TROFFING ACROSS EASTERN
FORECAST AREA FOR MORE SEVERE LONGWAVE NOCTURNAL LOSSES OVERNIGHT.
FAR WESTERN CWA MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN AT LEAST QUASI-MIXED ON
SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF RETREATING RIDGE...AND WHILE OVERALL CHANGES
MINUTE...HAVE STRENGTHENED E/W MIN TEMP GRADIENT. FOR SUNDAY...NEAR
FULL INSOLATION AND RIDGE CENTROID OFF NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE
ANTICIPATE DEEPER MIXING TO ABOUT 850MB/5KFT AGL. DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE MIXING SUGGESTS TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER THAN
CURRENT FORECAST. ALSO SAVE FOR FAR NORTHERN BERRIEN  COUNTY...
BACKGROUND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HOLD LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION TO
JUST OFFSHORE. UNIFORMITY OF NEAR 9.5C 8H TEMPERATURES SHOULD ASSURE
MAX TEMPS IN MID/UPR 70S AS SEEN TODAY ACROSS WESTERN MO.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE ONGOING FORECAST/GRIDS APPEAR TO BE REASONABLY ON TRACK THIS
UPCOMING WEEK GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF TWO SHORT WAVE TROFS AND
ASSOCIATED WEATHER. FAVORED THE GFS THIS PACKAGE WITH GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY...ALTHOUGH THE GFS WAS TRENDING MOST TEMPS DOWN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED THIS COOLER TREND...AND THE
ONGOING TREND TO LOWER LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE LOW TEMPS ARE
SUPPORTED BY THE GFS/MEX...WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 20S SHOWING UP OVER
FAR SW LOWER MICH. CONCERN PERSISTS FOR FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN LARGE
DIURNAL SWINGS EXPECTED WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
LAYERS. AS FOR THUNDER...KEPT SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDER LATE MONDAY
AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE
LIMITED...SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
COMBINED WITH SOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE EMLS/ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS
MAY BE ENOUGH GENERATE A FEW STORMS. A SECOND SHORT WAVE SHOULD
ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PD AS BROAD RIDGING REMAINS OVR
THE ERN LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEO/T
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 192033
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
433 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S BUT WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

TEMP FORECAST ONLY REAL CONCERN WITH NIL SENSIBLE WEATHER IN
NEAR/SHORT TERM TIMEFRAME GIVEN DEEP DRY/SUBSIDENT REGIME
ENTRENCHED ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION. EASTERLY FLOW WITHIN MIXED
LAYER PER OBS/VWP TO REINFORCE THERMAL TROFFING ACROSS EASTERN
FORECAST AREA FOR MORE SEVERE LONGWAVE NOCTURNAL LOSSES OVERNIGHT.
FAR WESTERN CWA MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN AT LEAST QUASI-MIXED ON
SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF RETREATING RIDGE...AND WHILE OVERALL CHANGES
MINUTE...HAVE STRENGTHENED E/W MIN TEMP GRADIENT. FOR SUNDAY...NEAR
FULL INSOLATION AND RIDGE CENTROID OFF NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE
ANTICIPATE DEEPER MIXING TO ABOUT 850MB/5KFT AGL. DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATE MIXING SUGGESTS TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER THAN
CURRENT FORECAST. ALSO SAVE FOR FAR NORTHERN BERRIEN  COUNTY...
BACKGROUND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HOLD LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION TO
JUST OFFSHORE. UNIFORMITY OF NEAR 9.5C 8H TEMPERATURES SHOULD ASSURE
MAX TEMPS IN MID/UPR 70S AS SEEN TODAY ACROSS WESTERN MO.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE ONGOING FORECAST/GRIDS APPEAR TO BE REASONABLY ON TRACK THIS
UPCOMING WEEK GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF TWO SHORT WAVE TROFS AND
ASSOCIATED WEATHER. FAVORED THE GFS THIS PACKAGE WITH GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY...ALTHOUGH THE GFS WAS TRENDING MOST TEMPS DOWN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED THIS COOLER TREND...AND THE
ONGOING TREND TO LOWER LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE LOW TEMPS ARE
SUPPORTED BY THE GFS/MEX...WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 20S SHOWING UP OVER
FAR SW LOWER MICH. CONCERN PERSISTS FOR FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN LARGE
DIURNAL SWINGS EXPECTED WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
LAYERS. AS FOR THUNDER...KEPT SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDER LATE MONDAY
AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE
LIMITED...SUPPORT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
COMBINED WITH SOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE EMLS/ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS
MAY BE ENOUGH GENERATE A FEW STORMS. A SECOND SHORT WAVE SHOULD
ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

DEARTH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO ASSURE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PD AND BEYOND...LIKELY INTO AT LEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT OR ABOVE CROSSOVER MARK NOT FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF BR
FORMATION NEAR SUNUP.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 191737
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
137 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S BUT WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS TO DISCUSS THIS SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN SPLIT BETWEEN PV
ANOMALIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES. MIDLEVEL
RIDGING IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES AND ASSOCIATED AVA
WILL MAINTAIN A HIGHLY SUBSIDENT/DRY ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY TONIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
WILL BE HOW WARM DO WE GET...MADE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT BY RECENT
OVERPERFORMANCE OF MAX TEMPS THE PAST TWO DAYS. THERMAL TROUGH
WILL ONLY SLOWLY EXIT THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATER TODAY.
925MB TEMPS ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND 5C IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST WITH AN
EASTERLY SURFACE WIND MAINTAINING COOL FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL ALSO BE CAPPED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
TODAY. LATEST NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING TO ONLY
ABOUT 900MB. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR FAR NORTHEAST CONFINED TO AROUND
60F WHILE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD APPROACH 70F. INHERITED
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS REASONABLY WELL AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN CURRENT VALUES BUT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS COULD STILL PROMOTE DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. DRY AIRMASS AND SLOW GREEN-UP HAVE ALLOWED
FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE DIURNAL SWINGS LATELY AND EXPECT SIMILAR STORY
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATEST 00Z MOS GUIDANCE ALSO CAME IN A
LITTLE COOLER. THEREFORE LOWERED MIN TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES WITH
MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE EAST AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

A NEARLY PICTURE PERFECT SPRING DAY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY TO START
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY LOWER AND
MID LEVELS WITH HINT AT SOME INCREASING CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LARGE DIURNAL SPREADS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN AND AS WE HAVE SEEN LAST
COUPLE DAYS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD EXCEED GUIDANCE IN DRY ATMOSPHERE.
MIX DOWN PROCEDURES STILL YIELD LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY AND FORECAST
ON TRACK WITH THESE HIGHS.

NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES ON MONDAY WITH SOME SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH. GIVEN LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND ONLY A WEAK TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PREFER THE
SLOWER MODELS WITH LESS QPF. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER MILD DAY FOR
MOST AREAS ON MONDAY WITH SOUNDINGS AGAIN SUPPORTING MID 70S
SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE A FACTOR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE NEARS. BEST FORCING
STILL LOOKS TO BE LATE AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE EVENING EAST.
ALLBLEND GIVING LOW END LIKELY AND CANNOT ARGUE WITH THIS. QPF OF
QUARTER INCH OR LESS GENERALLY EXPECTED.

MUCH COOLER AIR INVADES BEHIND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE 850MB TEMPS DROPPING
BELOW 0C TUE NIGHT AND MUCH OF DAY WED BEFORE LATE RECOVERY. WITH
GFS CLOSE AND MEX MOS NUMBERS DROPPING...HAVE LOWERED ALLBLEND TEMPS
TUE NIGHT INTO LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. FROST AND EVEN SOME FREEZING
TEMPS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. HIGHS ON WED ONLY EXPECTED
TO REBOUND INTO THE 50S.

WARM UP RETURNS THU AND FRI AS RELATIVELY STRONG SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
IN THE PLAINS AS POTENT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF ROCKIES.
HEIGHT RISES INITIALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO AT LEAST THE 60S IF NOT WARMER.
POPS INCREASE TO MID AND HIGH CHANCE RANGE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH WARM FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE. GIVEN STRENGTH OF SYSTEM
AND INDICATED NEGATIVE TILT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LATER
MODEL RUNS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS AND DELAY OUR PCPN CHANCES EVEN
MORE. HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM ALLBLEND WED NIGHT AND
KEPT THU POPS IN LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

DEARTH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO ASSURE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PD AND BEYOND...LIKELY INTO AT LEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AT OR ABOVE CROSSOVER MARK NOT FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF BR
FORMATION NEAR SUNUP.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 191403
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1003 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S BUT WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS TO DISCUSS THIS SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN SPLIT BETWEEN PV
ANOMALIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES. MIDLEVEL
RIDGING IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES AND ASSOCIATED AVA
WILL MAINTAIN A HIGHLY SUBSIDENT/DRY ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY TONIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
WILL BE HOW WARM DO WE GET...MADE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT BY RECENT
OVERPERFORMANCE OF MAX TEMPS THE PAST TWO DAYS. THERMAL TROUGH
WILL ONLY SLOWLY EXIT THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATER TODAY.
925MB TEMPS ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND 5C IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST WITH AN
EASTERLY SURFACE WIND MAINTAINING COOL FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL ALSO BE CAPPED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
TODAY. LATEST NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING TO ONLY
ABOUT 900MB. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR FAR NORTHEAST CONFINED TO AROUND
60F WHILE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD APPROACH 70F. INHERITED
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS REASONABLY WELL AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN CURRENT VALUES BUT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS COULD STILL PROMOTE DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. DRY AIRMASS AND SLOW GREEN-UP HAVE ALLOWED
FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE DIURNAL SWINGS LATELY AND EXPECT SIMILAR STORY
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATEST 00Z MOS GUIDANCE ALSO CAME IN A
LITTLE COOLER. THEREFORE LOWERED MIN TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES WITH
MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE EAST AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

A NEARLY PICTURE PERFECT SPRING DAY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY TO START
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY LOWER AND
MID LEVELS WITH HINT AT SOME INCREASING CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LARGE DIURNAL SPREADS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN AND AS WE HAVE SEEN LAST
COUPLE DAYS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD EXCEED GUIDANCE IN DRY ATMOSPHERE.
MIX DOWN PROCEDURES STILL YIELD LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY AND FORECAST
ON TRACK WITH THESE HIGHS.

NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES ON MONDAY WITH SOME SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH. GIVEN LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND ONLY A WEAK TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PREFER THE
SLOWER MODELS WITH LESS QPF. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER MILD DAY FOR
MOST AREAS ON MONDAY WITH SOUNDINGS AGAIN SUPPORTING MID 70S
SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE A FACTOR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE NEARS. BEST FORCING
STILL LOOKS TO BE LATE AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE EVENING EAST.
ALLBLEND GIVING LOW END LIKELY AND CANNOT ARGUE WITH THIS. QPF OF
QUARTER INCH OR LESS GENERALLY EXPECTED.

MUCH COOLER AIR INVADES BEHIND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE 850MB TEMPS DROPPING
BELOW 0C TUE NIGHT AND MUCH OF DAY WED BEFORE LATE RECOVERY. WITH
GFS CLOSE AND MEX MOS NUMBERS DROPPING...HAVE LOWERED ALLBLEND TEMPS
TUE NIGHT INTO LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. FROST AND EVEN SOME FREEZING
TEMPS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. HIGHS ON WED ONLY EXPECTED
TO REBOUND INTO THE 50S.

WARM UP RETURNS THU AND FRI AS RELATIVELY STRONG SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
IN THE PLAINS AS POTENT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF ROCKIES.
HEIGHT RISES INITIALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO AT LEAST THE 60S IF NOT WARMER.
POPS INCREASE TO MID AND HIGH CHANCE RANGE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH WARM FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE. GIVEN STRENGTH OF SYSTEM
AND INDICATED NEGATIVE TILT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LATER
MODEL RUNS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS AND DELAY OUR PCPN CHANCES EVEN
MORE. HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM ALLBLEND WED NIGHT AND
KEPT THU POPS IN LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ASSURED AS MIDLEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
HIGH DRIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE TROPOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT NE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE E/SE THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES INTO QUEBEC.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 190947
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
547 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S BUT WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS TO DISCUSS THIS SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN SPLIT BETWEEN PV
ANOMALIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES. MIDLEVEL
RIDGING IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES AND ASSOCIATED AVA
WILL MAINTAIN A HIGHLY SUBSIDENT/DRY ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY TONIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
WILL BE HOW WARM DO WE GET...MADE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT BY RECENT
OVERPERFORMANCE OF MAX TEMPS THE PAST TWO DAYS. THERMAL TROUGH
WILL ONLY SLOWLY EXIT THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATER TODAY.
925MB TEMPS ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND 5C IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST WITH AN
EASTERLY SURFACE WIND MAINTAINING COOL FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL ALSO BE CAPPED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
TODAY. LATEST NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING TO ONLY
ABOUT 900MB. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR FAR NORTHEAST CONFINED TO AROUND
60F WHILE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD APPROACH 70F. INHERITED
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS REASONABLY WELL AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN CURRENT VALUES BUT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS COULD STILL PROMOTE DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. DRY AIRMASS AND SLOW GREEN-UP HAVE ALLOWED
FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE DIURNAL SWINGS LATELY AND EXPECT SIMILAR STORY
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATEST 00Z MOS GUIDANCE ALSO CAME IN A
LITTLE COOLER. THEREFORE LOWERED MIN TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES WITH
MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE EAST AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

A NEARLY PICTURE PERFECT SPRING DAY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY TO START
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY LOWER AND
MID LEVELS WITH HINT AT SOME INCREASING CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LARGE DIURNAL SPREADS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN AND AS WE HAVE SEEN LAST
COUPLE DAYS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD EXCEED GUIDANCE IN DRY ATMOSPHERE.
MIX DOWN PROCEDURES STILL YIELD LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY AND FORECAST
ON TRACK WITH THESE HIGHS.

NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES ON MONDAY WITH SOME SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH. GIVEN LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND ONLY A WEAK TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PREFER THE
SLOWER MODELS WITH LESS QPF. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER MILD DAY FOR
MOST AREAS ON MONDAY WITH SOUNDINGS AGAIN SUPPORTING MID 70S
SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE A FACTOR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE NEARS. BEST FORCING
STILL LOOKS TO BE LATE AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE EVENING EAST.
ALLBLEND GIVING LOW END LIKELY AND CANNOT ARGUE WITH THIS. QPF OF
QUARTER INCH OR LESS GENERALLY EXPECTED.

MUCH COOLER AIR INVADES BEHIND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE 850MB TEMPS DROPPING
BELOW 0C TUE NIGHT AND MUCH OF DAY WED BEFORE LATE RECOVERY. WITH
GFS CLOSE AND MEX MOS NUMBERS DROPPING...HAVE LOWERED ALLBLEND TEMPS
TUE NIGHT INTO LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. FROST AND EVEN SOME FREEZING
TEMPS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. HIGHS ON WED ONLY EXPECTED
TO REBOUND INTO THE 50S.

WARM UP RETURNS THU AND FRI AS RELATIVELY STRONG SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
IN THE PLAINS AS POTENT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF ROCKIES.
HEIGHT RISES INITIALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO AT LEAST THE 60S IF NOT WARMER.
POPS INCREASE TO MID AND HIGH CHANCE RANGE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH WARM FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE. GIVEN STRENGTH OF SYSTEM
AND INDICATED NEGATIVE TILT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LATER
MODEL RUNS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS AND DELAY OUR PCPN CHANCES EVEN
MORE. HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM ALLBLEND WED NIGHT AND
KEPT THU POPS IN LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ASSURED AS MIDLEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
HIGH DRIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE TROPOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT NE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE E/SE THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES INTO QUEBEC.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 190755
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
355 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S BUT WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS TO DISCUSS THIS SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN SPLIT BETWEEN PV
ANOMALIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES. MIDLEVEL
RIDGING IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES AND ASSOCIATED AVA
WILL MAINTAIN A HIGHLY SUBSIDENT/DRY ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY TONIGHT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
WILL BE HOW WARM DO WE GET...MADE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT BY RECENT
OVERPERFORMANCE OF MAX TEMPS THE PAST TWO DAYS. THERMAL TROUGH
WILL ONLY SLOWLY EXIT THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATER TODAY.
925MB TEMPS ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND 5C IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST WITH AN
EASTERLY SURFACE WIND MAINTAINING COOL FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE.
MIXING DEPTHS WILL ALSO BE CAPPED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
TODAY. LATEST NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING TO ONLY
ABOUT 900MB. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR FAR NORTHEAST CONFINED TO AROUND
60F WHILE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD APPROACH 70F. INHERITED
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS REASONABLY WELL AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN CURRENT VALUES BUT
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT E-SE WINDS COULD STILL PROMOTE DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. DRY AIRMASS AND SLOW GREEN-UP HAVE ALLOWED
FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE DIURNAL SWINGS LATELY AND EXPECT SIMILAR STORY
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATEST 00Z MOS GUIDANCE ALSO CAME IN A
LITTLE COOLER. THEREFORE LOWERED MIN TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES WITH
MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE EAST AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE
WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

A NEARLY PICTURE PERFECT SPRING DAY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY TO START
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY LOWER AND
MID LEVELS WITH HINT AT SOME INCREASING CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LARGE DIURNAL SPREADS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN AND AS WE HAVE SEEN LAST
COUPLE DAYS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD EXCEED GUIDANCE IN DRY ATMOSPHERE.
MIX DOWN PROCEDURES STILL YIELD LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY AND FORECAST
ON TRACK WITH THESE HIGHS.

NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES ON MONDAY WITH SOME SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH. GIVEN LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND ONLY A WEAK TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PREFER THE
SLOWER MODELS WITH LESS QPF. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER MILD DAY FOR
MOST AREAS ON MONDAY WITH SOUNDINGS AGAIN SUPPORTING MID 70S
SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE A FACTOR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE NEARS. BEST FORCING
STILL LOOKS TO BE LATE AFTERNOON WEST AND MID TO LATE EVENING EAST.
ALLBLEND GIVING LOW END LIKELY AND CANNOT ARGUE WITH THIS. QPF OF
QUARTER INCH OR LESS GENERALLY EXPECTED.

MUCH COOLER AIR INVADES BEHIND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE 850MB TEMPS DROPPING
BELOW 0C TUE NIGHT AND MUCH OF DAY WED BEFORE LATE RECOVERY. WITH
GFS CLOSE AND MEX MOS NUMBERS DROPPING...HAVE LOWERED ALLBLEND TEMPS
TUE NIGHT INTO LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. FROST AND EVEN SOME FREEZING
TEMPS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. HIGHS ON WED ONLY EXPECTED
TO REBOUND INTO THE 50S.

WARM UP RETURNS THU AND FRI AS RELATIVELY STRONG SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
IN THE PLAINS AS POTENT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF ROCKIES.
HEIGHT RISES INITIALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO AT LEAST THE 60S IF NOT WARMER.
POPS INCREASE TO MID AND HIGH CHANCE RANGE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH WARM FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE. GIVEN STRENGTH OF SYSTEM
AND INDICATED NEGATIVE TILT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LATER
MODEL RUNS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS AND DELAY OUR PCPN CHANCES EVEN
MORE. HAVE REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM ALLBLEND WED NIGHT AND
KEPT THU POPS IN LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

IDEAL AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
MIDLEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS GRADUALLY
VEERING TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 190525
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
125 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPR GRTLKS/ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PROVIDING FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA. DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT... THOUGH GRADIENT ACROSS AT
LEAST THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA PRBLY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. LOWS EXPECTED TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 30S. IN FAR NW PORTION OF CWA WHERE LAKE BREEZE HAS
KEPT TEMPS IN THE 40S TODAY AND GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD VEER TO EAST
AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... EXPECT MINS BLO FREEZING. WHILE OUR
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY/WARNING SEASON WON`T BEGIN TIL MAY 1ST...
ADDED FROST TO FCST FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NW SINCE SOME
COMMERCIAL/HOME GROWERS/GARDENERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED OUTDOOR
GROWING OPERATIONS. ONLY FCST FROST TO BE PATCHY WHERE MINS <=32F
SINCE SOME WIND AND DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FROST COVERAGE.

DRY AIRMASS WILL CONT TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY WITH H85 THERMAL
TROF MOVG EAST FROM THE LWR GRTLKS TO NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND DECENT GRADIENT MIXING EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO... GENERALLY LEANED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS WHICH ARE FCST TO RANGE FROM THE U50S NE TO THE U60S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
PERIOD...THE FIRST BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN THE SECOND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING
ABOUT THURSDAY. BRIEF WARMUPS WILL PRECEDE THESE SYSTEMS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN
THURSDAY. THE GFS OPERATIONAL MEX TEMPS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...ALTHOUGH HAVE TRENDED COOLER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THIS TREND WHICH MIRRORS THE LATEST
ALLBLEND TEMPS. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
GREATEST LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK OF MOISTURE REACHING THE FCST AREA
FROM THE GULF...WHICH WILL SEVERELY LIMIT CAPE VALUES.  GFS/BUFKIT
CAPE VALUES ESSENTIALLY ZERO OR NEAR ZERO OVER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. FOR SPECIFICS...MASSIVE DIURNAL RANGES CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS/MAV RISES OF
30 TO 40 REASONABLE. KEPT HIGHS OPTIMISTIC INTO THE 70S SUNDAY GIVEN
NEARLY FULL LATE APRIL SUN AND 850/925 MB TEMPS RISING TO BETWEEN
11C AND 14C. RAIN SHOULD HOLD OF UNTIL SOME TIME MONDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE COLDEST NIGHT
SHOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO MID TO UPPER 30S.
FROST MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO SOME AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

IDEAL AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
MIDLEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS GRADUALLY
VEERING TO E/SE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT/T
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 190041
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
841 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPR GRTLKS/ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PROVIDING FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA. DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT... THOUGH GRADIENT ACROSS AT
LEAST THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA PRBLY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. LOWS EXPECTED TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 30S. IN FAR NW PORTION OF CWA WHERE LAKE BREEZE HAS
KEPT TEMPS IN THE 40S TODAY AND GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD VEER TO EAST
AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... EXPECT MINS BLO FREEZING. WHILE OUR
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY/WARNING SEASON WON`T BEGIN TIL MAY 1ST...
ADDED FROST TO FCST FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NW SINCE SOME
COMMERCIAL/HOME GROWERS/GARDENERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED OUTDOOR
GROWING OPERATIONS. ONLY FCST FROST TO BE PATCHY WHERE MINS <=32F
SINCE SOME WIND AND DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FROST COVERAGE.

DRY AIRMASS WILL CONT TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY WITH H85 THERMAL
TROF MOVG EAST FROM THE LWR GRTLKS TO NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND DECENT GRADIENT MIXING EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO... GENERALLY LEANED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS WHICH ARE FCST TO RANGE FROM THE U50S NE TO THE U60S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
PERIOD...THE FIRST BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN THE SECOND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING
ABOUT THURSDAY. BRIEF WARMUPS WILL PRECEDE THESE SYSTEMS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN
THURSDAY. THE GFS OPERATIONAL MEX TEMPS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...ALTHOUGH HAVE TRENDED COOLER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THIS TREND WHICH MIRRORS THE LATEST
ALLBLEND TEMPS. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
GREATEST LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK OF MOISTURE REACHING THE FCST AREA
FROM THE GULF...WHICH WILL SEVERELY LIMIT CAPE VALUES.  GFS/BUFKIT
CAPE VALUES ESSENTIALLY ZERO OR NEAR ZERO OVER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. FOR SPECIFICS...MASSIVE DIURNAL RANGES CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS/MAV RISES OF
30 TO 40 REASONABLE. KEPT HIGHS OPTIMISTIC INTO THE 70S SUNDAY GIVEN
NEARLY FULL LATE APRIL SUN AND 850/925 MB TEMPS RISING TO BETWEEN
11C AND 14C. RAIN SHOULD HOLD OF UNTIL SOME TIME MONDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE COLDEST NIGHT
SHOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO MID TO UPPER 30S.
FROST MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO SOME AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD AS SFC RIDGING MOVES SLOWLY EAST
THIS PD. N/NE WINDS EARLY WILL VEER E/SE BY SAT AFTN AND REMAIN
AOB 10KTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT/T
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 181948
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
348 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE WINDS OFF THE LAKE WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S... WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE
60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPR GRTLKS/ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PROVIDING FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA. DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT... THOUGH GRADIENT ACROSS AT
LEAST THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA PRBLY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. LOWS EXPECTED TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 30S. IN FAR NW PORTION OF CWA WHERE LAKE BREEZE HAS
KEPT TEMPS IN THE 40S TODAY AND GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD VEER TO EAST
AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... EXPECT MINS BLO FREEZING. WHILE OUR
FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY/WARNING SEASON WON`T BEGIN TIL MAY 1ST...
ADDED FROST TO FCST FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NW SINCE SOME
COMMERCIAL/HOME GROWERS/GARDENERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED OUTDOOR
GROWING OPERATIONS. ONLY FCST FROST TO BE PATCHY WHERE MINS <=32F
SINCE SOME WIND AND DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FROST COVERAGE.

DRY AIRMASS WILL CONT TO IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY WITH H85 THERMAL
TROF MOVG EAST FROM THE LWR GRTLKS TO NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND DECENT GRADIENT MIXING EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO... GENERALLY LEANED TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS WHICH ARE FCST TO RANGE FROM THE U50S NE TO THE U60S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
PERIOD...THE FIRST BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN THE SECOND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING
ABOUT THURSDAY. BRIEF WARMUPS WILL PRECEDE THESE SYSTEMS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN
THURSDAY. THE GFS OPERATIONAL MEX TEMPS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...ALTHOUGH HAVE TRENDED COOLER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THIS TREND WHICH MIRRORS THE LATEST
ALLBLEND TEMPS. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. THE
GREATEST LIMITING FACTOR IS LACK OF MOISTURE REACHING THE FCST AREA
FROM THE GULF...WHICH WILL SEVERELY LIMIT CAPE VALUES.  GFS/BUFKIT
CAPE VALUES ESSENTIALLY ZERO OR NEAR ZERO OVER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. FOR SPECIFICS...MASSIVE DIURNAL RANGES CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS/MAV RISES OF
30 TO 40 REASONABLE. KEPT HIGHS OPTIMISTIC INTO THE 70S SUNDAY GIVEN
NEARLY FULL LATE APRIL SUN AND 850/925 MB TEMPS RISING TO BETWEEN
11C AND 14C. RAIN SHOULD HOLD OF UNTIL SOME TIME MONDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE COLDEST NIGHT
SHOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO MID TO UPPER 30S.
FROST MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO SOME AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

CDFNT MOVG ACROSS NRN INDIANA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FWA EARLY THIS
AFTN SHIFTING WINDS FROM SW TO NW. VFR CU DECK OVER NE INDIANA WILL
GRADUALLY MIX OUT THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. VFR/CLR EXPECTED
THIS EVE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE UPR GRTLKS CAUSING NW WINDS TO VEER TO EASTERLY IN THIS
TIMEFRAME.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 181728
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
128 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE WINDS OFF THE LAKE WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S... WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE
60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA WITH VERY LITTLE
FANFARE. IN FACT...NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE FRONT AT ALL IN
LATEST TEMP/PRESSURE/WIND REPORTS. BETTER EVIDENCE OF FRONTAL
FEATURE RESIDES AROUND 850MB WITH INCREASED BAROCLINICITY AND
CONVERGENCE SEEN THERE. IT IS WITHIN THIS ELEVATED REGION OF WEAK
BUT SUBTLY INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS THAT OUR CHANCES OF PRECIP
REMAIN. REGIONAL REFLECTIVITIES HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN THE PAST
FEW HOURS AS EXPECTED. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST FINALLY APPROACHING THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONFIGURATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AND THE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES HAS ALSO LEFT THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
IN A FAVORABLE POSITION WITH RESPECT TO CORRESPONDING JET STREAKS.
ASSOCIATED UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL FGEN AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAS ALLOWED
SHOWERS TO INCREASE BUT DRY AIR BELOW 6 KFT...AS SEEN ON 00Z KILX
SOUNDING...IS STILL TAKING ITS TOLL AMID ONLY MODEST FORCING. ONLY
TRACE REPORTS SEEN SO FAR. MORE IMPORTANT ASPECT TO NOTE FOR TODAY`S
FORECAST IS THE TRANSIENT NATURE OF AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAKS.
POSITIONING FAVORABLE TO OUR CWA WILL ONLY LAST A SHORT TIME THIS
MORNING WITH LEFT ENTRANCE FRONTOLYSIS NOTED BY MIDDAY. THIS
SUGGESTS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN ALREADY HANDICAPPED PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. LATEST HI-RES/RAPID
UPDATE MODELS REFLECT THIS EXPECTATION WELL WITH LITTLE TO NO QPF
AFTER ROUGHLY 13Z. WILL THEREFORE PARE BACK LATE MORNING POPS AND
REMOVE ANY MENTION POST 18Z. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY PLEASANT
AFTERNOON. WEAK CAA WILL SEND 925MB TEMPS TO AROUND 5C IN THE
NORTHWEST BUT STILL HOLDING ABOVE 10C IN THE SOUTHEAST. MIXING
DEPTHS APPEAR MUCH GREATER IN THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL BASED ON LATEST
NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF MID TO
UPPER 60S IN OUR SOUTHEAST BUT ONLY UPPER 50S AROUND KSBN. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
FOR MANY AREAS TONIGHT. LOWERED INHERITED MINS JUST A TOUCH TO BE
MORE IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST MOS AND RAW GUIDANCE BUT
OVERALL CHANGES MINIMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

ANOTHER MILD WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH PCPN LIKELY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
LAKES THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL SEE SURFACE WINDS FROM THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE EASTERN LAKES WILL LIKELY
KEEP FAR NORTHEAST CWA IN A COOL MARINE LAYER WITH TEMPS REMAINING
IN THE 50S. FULL SUN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AND NAM12 SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MIXING TO ABOUT 900MB WHICH YIELDS TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S
CENTRAL AND MID 60S SOUTHWEST. DRY ATMOSPHERE YESTERDAY ALLOWED
FOR A LARGE DIURNAL SWING WITH SUPERADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NEAR THE
SURFACE AND THINK THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY OUTSIDE OF
AFOREMENTIONED LAKE INFLUENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR
WARMER RETURN FLOW AND DEEPER MIXING HEIGHTS TO 850MB. MIXING TOOLS
SUGGEST TEMPS COULD EASILY APPROACH MID 70S IF THESE PROFILES
VERIFY. HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF BUMPING TEMPS UP AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES. MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON CIRRUS DRIFT OVER AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM WHICH MAY IMPACT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.

NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. DEEP
MOISTURE IS LACKING BUT A LITTLE BETTER THAN CURRENT SYSTEM WHICH IS
STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PCPN. GULF REMAINS CUT OFF BUT
MODELS ARE A BIT STRONGER WITH DYNAMICS. GFS PLACES RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF MID LEVEL JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WOULD AID LIFT.
ECMWF NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS JET. KEPT THE ALLBLEND POPS IN THE MID
CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THESE FACTORS.

MID WEEK LOOKING COOLER IN WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER WITH 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO -5C WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEX MOS HAS ALSO TRENDED COOLER
WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S...ABOUT 6 TO 8 DEGREES
COOLER THAN 17/00Z RUN. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS WEDNESDAY SEVERAL DEGREES
FROM ALLBLEND GIVEN THESE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS.

ANOTHER HIGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS THURSDAY AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE STILL EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE IN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP
INCREASE LOW LEVEL JET AND ALLOW WARMER AIR TO SURGE NORTH. SHOULD
SEE TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO 60S AND LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

CDFNT MOVG ACROSS NRN INDIANA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FWA EARLY THIS
AFTN SHIFTING WINDS FROM SW TO NW. VFR CU DECK OVER NE INDIANA WILL
GRADUALLY MIX OUT THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. VFR/CLR EXPECTED
THIS EVE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE UPR GRTLKS CAUSING NW WINDS TO VEER TO EASTERLY IN THIS
TIMEFRAME.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT


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