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000
FXUS63 KIWX 300548
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
148 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED COOL WEATHER IN OUR AREA WITH SCATTERED...PRIMARILY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. BULK OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SHORT WAVE. ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL TRACK INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE
WANING...WEAK FORCING FROM THIS WAVE AND ADDITIONAL UPDRAFT
GENERATION ALONG COMPOSITE OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING CONVECTION...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST NORTHWEST THIRD OF
THE AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND MAY
NEED TO EXTEND POPS FURTHER SOUTHEAST IF UPSTREAM TRENDS PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH JUST SOME MID
CLOUDS. IN ITS WAKE...SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO QUICKLY JUMP
INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE LAKE WHERE LAKE
SHADOW WAS ALREADY INLAND. BAND OF WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AND WILL DRIFT SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY EVENING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
CELLS COULD SEE BORDERLINE ISOLATED NEAR SEVERE HAIL. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID EVENING. COOLER NIGHT STILL ON TAP BUT
NOT AS BAD AS LAST WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S EAST AND NORTH TO MID
50S WEST/SOUTH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AREAS WHICH
WILL MAKE A RUN AT 70 AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR FALL A BIT WITH LAKE
BREEZE. HAVE HELD WITH GENERAL IDEA OF POPS WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN HOW THINGS HAVE
WORKED OUT TODAY AND BETTER SETUP TOMORROW HAVE INCREASED POPS
SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL IN CHC CATEGORY WITH HIGHEST EAST GIVEN BEST
TIMING IN THE EAST IN AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE UPR
GRTLKS BY THU AS DEEP OCCLUDING LOW OVER SERN CANADA GRDLY WEAKENS.
ASSOCIATED UPR LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL ALSO FILL IN THIS TIME FRAME
BUT A LINGERING TROF/COOL POOL ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DIURNAL INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD/SCT AFTN
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK. UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN ON
MONDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK UP TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG. ANOTHER SHRTWV EXPECTED TO TOP STRONG
WRN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE TO SE CANADA ON
TUE. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT AMPLIFICATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENT SOUTHWARD PUSH OF SFC
CDFNT. LEANED TOWARD WEAKER GFS WHICH SUGGESTS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA AS WK CDFNT STAYS TO THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRIMARILY VFR MET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
PRIOR RAINFALL INVOF KFWA ALONG WITH BASIN DRAINAGE WITH ADDITIVE
MOISTURE VIA EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE CROPS HAS ALLOWED SURFACE
DEWPOINT OR UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 TO POOL INTO UPPER WABASH/MAUMEE
BASINS...AND COULD YIELD MVFR VSBSY NEAR DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...SIMILAR SCENARIO AS SEEN YDAY WITH MID TROPOSPHERIC
COLD POOL REMAINING FROM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NWRN OH WITH
SOLD/SCT CONVECTION POTENTIAL INCREASING BY MIDDAY...AND HAVE
ADDED VCSH TO KFWA 16-23 UTC. SUFFICIENT INLAND SCOUR DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD PRECLUDE OCCURRENCE AT KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 300548
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
148 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED COOL WEATHER IN OUR AREA WITH SCATTERED...PRIMARILY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. BULK OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SHORT WAVE. ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL TRACK INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE
WANING...WEAK FORCING FROM THIS WAVE AND ADDITIONAL UPDRAFT
GENERATION ALONG COMPOSITE OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING CONVECTION...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST NORTHWEST THIRD OF
THE AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND MAY
NEED TO EXTEND POPS FURTHER SOUTHEAST IF UPSTREAM TRENDS PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH JUST SOME MID
CLOUDS. IN ITS WAKE...SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO QUICKLY JUMP
INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE LAKE WHERE LAKE
SHADOW WAS ALREADY INLAND. BAND OF WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AND WILL DRIFT SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY EVENING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
CELLS COULD SEE BORDERLINE ISOLATED NEAR SEVERE HAIL. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID EVENING. COOLER NIGHT STILL ON TAP BUT
NOT AS BAD AS LAST WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S EAST AND NORTH TO MID
50S WEST/SOUTH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AREAS WHICH
WILL MAKE A RUN AT 70 AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR FALL A BIT WITH LAKE
BREEZE. HAVE HELD WITH GENERAL IDEA OF POPS WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN HOW THINGS HAVE
WORKED OUT TODAY AND BETTER SETUP TOMORROW HAVE INCREASED POPS
SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL IN CHC CATEGORY WITH HIGHEST EAST GIVEN BEST
TIMING IN THE EAST IN AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE UPR
GRTLKS BY THU AS DEEP OCCLUDING LOW OVER SERN CANADA GRDLY WEAKENS.
ASSOCIATED UPR LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL ALSO FILL IN THIS TIME FRAME
BUT A LINGERING TROF/COOL POOL ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DIURNAL INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD/SCT AFTN
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK. UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN ON
MONDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK UP TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG. ANOTHER SHRTWV EXPECTED TO TOP STRONG
WRN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE TO SE CANADA ON
TUE. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT AMPLIFICATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENT SOUTHWARD PUSH OF SFC
CDFNT. LEANED TOWARD WEAKER GFS WHICH SUGGESTS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA AS WK CDFNT STAYS TO THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRIMARILY VFR MET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
PRIOR RAINFALL INVOF KFWA ALONG WITH BASIN DRAINAGE WITH ADDITIVE
MOISTURE VIA EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE CROPS HAS ALLOWED SURFACE
DEWPOINT OR UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 TO POOL INTO UPPER WABASH/MAUMEE
BASINS...AND COULD YIELD MVFR VSBSY NEAR DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...SIMILAR SCENARIO AS SEEN YDAY WITH MID TROPOSPHERIC
COLD POOL REMAINING FROM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NWRN OH WITH
SOLD/SCT CONVECTION POTENTIAL INCREASING BY MIDDAY...AND HAVE
ADDED VCSH TO KFWA 16-23 UTC. SUFFICIENT INLAND SCOUR DOWNWIND OF
LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD PRECLUDE OCCURRENCE AT KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 300021
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
821 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED COOL WEATHER IN OUR AREA WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. BULK OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SHORT WAVE. ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL TRACK INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE
WANING...WEAK FORCING FROM THIS WAVE AND ADDITIONAL UPDRAFT
GENERATION ALONG COMPOSITE OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING CONVECTION...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST NORTHWEST THIRD OF
THE AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND MAY
NEED TO EXTEND POPS FURTHER SOUTHEAST IF UPSTREAM TRENDS PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH JUST SOME MID
CLOUDS. IN ITS WAKE...SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO QUICKLY JUMP
INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE LAKE WHERE LAKE
SHADOW WAS ALREADY INLAND. BAND OF WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AND WILL DRIFT SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY EVENING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
CELLS COULD SEE BORDERLINE ISOLATED NEAR SEVERE HAIL. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID EVENING. COOLER NIGHT STILL ON TAP BUT
NOT AS BAD AS LAST WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S EAST AND NORTH TO MID
50S WEST/SOUTH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AREAS WHICH
WILL MAKE A RUN AT 70 AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR FALL A BIT WITH LAKE
BREEZE. HAVE HELD WITH GENERAL IDEA OF POPS WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN HOW THINGS HAVE
WORKED OUT TODAY AND BETTER SETUP TOMORROW HAVE INCREASED POPS
SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL IN CHC CATEGORY WITH HIGHEST EAST GIVEN BEST
TIMING IN THE EAST IN AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE UPR
GRTLKS BY THU AS DEEP OCCLUDING LOW OVER SERN CANADA GRDLY WEAKENS.
ASSOCIATED UPR LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL ALSO FILL IN THIS TIME FRAME
BUT A LINGERING TROF/COOL POOL ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DIURNAL INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD/SCT AFTN
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK. UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN ON
MONDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK UP TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG. ANOTHER SHRTWV EXPECTED TO TOP STRONG
WRN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE TO SE CANADA ON
TUE. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT AMPLIFICATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENT SOUTHWARD PUSH OF SFC
CDFNT. LEANED TOWARD WEAKER GFS WHICH SUGGESTS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA AS WK CDFNT STAYS TO THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER NEXT
FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL KEEP TERMINALS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE MID
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS ENHANCED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS TO REACH KSBN LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL MONITOR
UPSTREAM TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED
TO ADD SHRA MENTION AT KSBN. YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH TIMING OF THIS WAVE SUGGESTING BEST AFTERNOON
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO. GIVEN
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE...WILL KEEP
A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR TERMINALS FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH BEST
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS WOULD EXIST AT KFWA. WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT WESTERLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INCREASING FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 KNOTS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 300021
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
821 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED COOL WEATHER IN OUR AREA WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. BULK OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SHORT WAVE. ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL TRACK INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE
WANING...WEAK FORCING FROM THIS WAVE AND ADDITIONAL UPDRAFT
GENERATION ALONG COMPOSITE OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING CONVECTION...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST NORTHWEST THIRD OF
THE AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND MAY
NEED TO EXTEND POPS FURTHER SOUTHEAST IF UPSTREAM TRENDS PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH JUST SOME MID
CLOUDS. IN ITS WAKE...SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO QUICKLY JUMP
INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE LAKE WHERE LAKE
SHADOW WAS ALREADY INLAND. BAND OF WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AND WILL DRIFT SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY EVENING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
CELLS COULD SEE BORDERLINE ISOLATED NEAR SEVERE HAIL. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID EVENING. COOLER NIGHT STILL ON TAP BUT
NOT AS BAD AS LAST WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S EAST AND NORTH TO MID
50S WEST/SOUTH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AREAS WHICH
WILL MAKE A RUN AT 70 AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR FALL A BIT WITH LAKE
BREEZE. HAVE HELD WITH GENERAL IDEA OF POPS WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN HOW THINGS HAVE
WORKED OUT TODAY AND BETTER SETUP TOMORROW HAVE INCREASED POPS
SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL IN CHC CATEGORY WITH HIGHEST EAST GIVEN BEST
TIMING IN THE EAST IN AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE UPR
GRTLKS BY THU AS DEEP OCCLUDING LOW OVER SERN CANADA GRDLY WEAKENS.
ASSOCIATED UPR LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL ALSO FILL IN THIS TIME FRAME
BUT A LINGERING TROF/COOL POOL ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DIURNAL INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD/SCT AFTN
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK. UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN ON
MONDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK UP TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG. ANOTHER SHRTWV EXPECTED TO TOP STRONG
WRN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE TO SE CANADA ON
TUE. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT AMPLIFICATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENT SOUTHWARD PUSH OF SFC
CDFNT. LEANED TOWARD WEAKER GFS WHICH SUGGESTS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA AS WK CDFNT STAYS TO THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER NEXT
FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL KEEP TERMINALS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE MID
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS ENHANCED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS TO REACH KSBN LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL MONITOR
UPSTREAM TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED
TO ADD SHRA MENTION AT KSBN. YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH TIMING OF THIS WAVE SUGGESTING BEST AFTERNOON
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO. GIVEN
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE...WILL KEEP
A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR TERMINALS FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH BEST
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS WOULD EXIST AT KFWA. WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT WESTERLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INCREASING FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 KNOTS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 291955 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
349 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED COOL WEATHER IN OUR AREA WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH JUST SOME MID
CLOUDS. IN ITS WAKE...SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO QUICKLY JUMP
INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE LAKE WHERE LAKE
SHADOW WAS ALREADY INLAND. BAND OF WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AND WILL DRIFT SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY EVENING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
CELLS COULD SEE BORDERLINE ISOLATED NEAR SEVERE HAIL. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID EVENING. COOLER NIGHT STILL ON TAP BUT
NOT AS BAD AS LAST WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S EAST AND NORTH TO MID
50S WEST/SOUTH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AREAS WHICH
WILL MAKE A RUN AT 70 AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR FALL A BIT WITH LAKE
BREEZE. HAVE HELD WITH GENERAL IDEA OF POPS WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN HOW THINGS HAVE
WORKED OUT TODAY AND BETTER SETUP TOMORROW HAVE INCREASED POPS
SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL IN CHC CATEGORY WITH HIGHEST EAST GIVEN BEST
TIMING IN THE EAST IN AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE UPR
GRTLKS BY THU AS DEEP OCCLUDING LOW OVER SERN CANADA GRDLY WEAKENS.
ASSOCIATED UPR LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL ALSO FILL IN THIS TIME FRAME
BUT A LINGERING TROF/COOL POOL ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DIURNAL INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD/SCT AFTN
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK. UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN ON
MONDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK UP TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG. ANOTHER SHRTWV EXPECTED TO TOP STRONG
WRN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE TO SE CANADA ON
TUE. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT AMPLIFICATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENT SOUTHWARD PUSH OF SFC
CDFNT. LEANED TOWARD WEAKER GFS WHICH SUGGESTS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA AS WK CDFNT STAYS TO THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CU HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR WITH BAND OF MID
CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A BIT. AS
THEY LEAVE...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE MET AND SCT TO MAYBE
BROKEN VFR BASED CU SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS KFWA. LAKE
BREEZE/SHADOW WAS ALMOST TO KSBN WITH WIND SHIFT ALREADY
OCCURRING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED AT THE AIRPORT
WITH THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS FROM THIS FEATURE SO HAVE BACKED OFF
ON SKY COVER. BIT OF MIXING ALSO OCCURRING RESULTING IN SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO NEAR 20 KT RANGE AT KSBN. A STRAY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE AT KFWA SO WILL LEAVE VCSH MENTION IN.

CIRRUS WILL MOVE OVER TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. MAY BE SOME
ADDITIONAL CU AROUND AS YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 291955 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
349 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED COOL WEATHER IN OUR AREA WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH JUST SOME MID
CLOUDS. IN ITS WAKE...SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO QUICKLY JUMP
INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE LAKE WHERE LAKE
SHADOW WAS ALREADY INLAND. BAND OF WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AND WILL DRIFT SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY EVENING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
CELLS COULD SEE BORDERLINE ISOLATED NEAR SEVERE HAIL. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID EVENING. COOLER NIGHT STILL ON TAP BUT
NOT AS BAD AS LAST WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S EAST AND NORTH TO MID
50S WEST/SOUTH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AREAS WHICH
WILL MAKE A RUN AT 70 AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR FALL A BIT WITH LAKE
BREEZE. HAVE HELD WITH GENERAL IDEA OF POPS WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN HOW THINGS HAVE
WORKED OUT TODAY AND BETTER SETUP TOMORROW HAVE INCREASED POPS
SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL IN CHC CATEGORY WITH HIGHEST EAST GIVEN BEST
TIMING IN THE EAST IN AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE UPR
GRTLKS BY THU AS DEEP OCCLUDING LOW OVER SERN CANADA GRDLY WEAKENS.
ASSOCIATED UPR LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL ALSO FILL IN THIS TIME FRAME
BUT A LINGERING TROF/COOL POOL ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DIURNAL INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD/SCT AFTN
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK. UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN ON
MONDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK UP TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG. ANOTHER SHRTWV EXPECTED TO TOP STRONG
WRN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE TO SE CANADA ON
TUE. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT AMPLIFICATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENT SOUTHWARD PUSH OF SFC
CDFNT. LEANED TOWARD WEAKER GFS WHICH SUGGESTS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA AS WK CDFNT STAYS TO THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CU HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR WITH BAND OF MID
CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A BIT. AS
THEY LEAVE...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE MET AND SCT TO MAYBE
BROKEN VFR BASED CU SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS KFWA. LAKE
BREEZE/SHADOW WAS ALMOST TO KSBN WITH WIND SHIFT ALREADY
OCCURRING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED AT THE AIRPORT
WITH THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS FROM THIS FEATURE SO HAVE BACKED OFF
ON SKY COVER. BIT OF MIXING ALSO OCCURRING RESULTING IN SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO NEAR 20 KT RANGE AT KSBN. A STRAY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE AT KFWA SO WILL LEAVE VCSH MENTION IN.

CIRRUS WILL MOVE OVER TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. MAY BE SOME
ADDITIONAL CU AROUND AS YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA











000
FXUS63 KIWX 291949
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
349 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED COOL WEATHER IN OUR AREA WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 50S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MI 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH JUST SOME MID
CLOUDS. IN ITS WAKE...SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO QUICKLY JUMP
INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE LAKE WHERE LAKE
SHADOW WAS ALREADY INLAND. BAND OF WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AND WILL DRIFT SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY EVENING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
CELLS COULD SEE BORDERLINE ISOLATED NEAR SEVERE HAIL. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID EVENING. COOLER NIGHT STILL ON TAP BUT
NOT AS BAD AS LAST WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S EAST AND NORTH TO MID
50S WEST/SOUTH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AREAS WHICH
WILL MAKE A RUN AT 70 AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR FALL A BIT WITH LAKE
BREEZE. HAVE HELD WITH GENERAL IDEA OF POPS WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN HOW THINGS HAVE
WORKED OUT TODAY AND BETTER SETUP TOMORROW HAVE INCREASED POPS
SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL IN CHC CATEGORY WITH HIGHEST EAST GIVEN BEST
TIMING IN THE EAST IN AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE UPR
GRTLKS BY THU AS DEEP OCCLUDING LOW OVER SERN CANADA GRDLY WEAKENS.
ASSOCIATED UPR LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL ALSO FILL IN THIS TIME FRAME
BUT A LINGERING TROF/COOL POOL ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DIURNAL INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD/SCT AFTN
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK. UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN ON
MONDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK UP TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG. ANOTHER SHRTWV EXPECTED TO TOP STRONG
WRN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE TO SE CANADA ON
TUE. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT AMPLIFICATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENT SOUTHWARD PUSH OF SFC
CDFNT. LEANED TOWARD WEAKER GFS WHICH SUGGESTS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA AS WK CDFNT STAYS TO THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CU HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR WITH BAND OF MID
CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A BIT. AS
THEY LEAVE...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE MET AND SCT TO MAYBE
BROKEN VFR BASED CU SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS KFWA. LAKE
BREEZE/SHADOW WAS ALMOST TO KSBN WITH WIND SHIFT ALREADY
OCCURRING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED AT THE AIRPORT
WITH THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS FROM THIS FEATURE SO HAVE BACKED OFF
ON SKY COVER. BIT OF MIXING ALSO OCCURRING RESULTING IN SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO NEAR 20 KT RANGE AT KSBN. A STRAY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE AT KFWA SO WILL LEAVE VCSH MENTION IN.

CIRRUS WILL MOVE OVER TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. MAY BE SOME
ADDITIONAL CU AROUND AS YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 291949
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
349 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED COOL WEATHER IN OUR AREA WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 50S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MI 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH JUST SOME MID
CLOUDS. IN ITS WAKE...SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO QUICKLY JUMP
INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE LAKE WHERE LAKE
SHADOW WAS ALREADY INLAND. BAND OF WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AND WILL DRIFT SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY EVENING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
CELLS COULD SEE BORDERLINE ISOLATED NEAR SEVERE HAIL. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID EVENING. COOLER NIGHT STILL ON TAP BUT
NOT AS BAD AS LAST WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S EAST AND NORTH TO MID
50S WEST/SOUTH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AREAS WHICH
WILL MAKE A RUN AT 70 AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR FALL A BIT WITH LAKE
BREEZE. HAVE HELD WITH GENERAL IDEA OF POPS WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN HOW THINGS HAVE
WORKED OUT TODAY AND BETTER SETUP TOMORROW HAVE INCREASED POPS
SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL IN CHC CATEGORY WITH HIGHEST EAST GIVEN BEST
TIMING IN THE EAST IN AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE UPR
GRTLKS BY THU AS DEEP OCCLUDING LOW OVER SERN CANADA GRDLY WEAKENS.
ASSOCIATED UPR LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL ALSO FILL IN THIS TIME FRAME
BUT A LINGERING TROF/COOL POOL ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DIURNAL INSTABILITY FOR ISOLD/SCT AFTN
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN OUR AREA LATE THIS WEEK. UPR TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN ON
MONDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK UP TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG. ANOTHER SHRTWV EXPECTED TO TOP STRONG
WRN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE TO SE CANADA ON
TUE. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT AMPLIFICATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SUBSEQUENT SOUTHWARD PUSH OF SFC
CDFNT. LEANED TOWARD WEAKER GFS WHICH SUGGESTS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA AS WK CDFNT STAYS TO THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CU HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR WITH BAND OF MID
CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A BIT. AS
THEY LEAVE...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE MET AND SCT TO MAYBE
BROKEN VFR BASED CU SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS KFWA. LAKE
BREEZE/SHADOW WAS ALMOST TO KSBN WITH WIND SHIFT ALREADY
OCCURRING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED AT THE AIRPORT
WITH THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS FROM THIS FEATURE SO HAVE BACKED OFF
ON SKY COVER. BIT OF MIXING ALSO OCCURRING RESULTING IN SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO NEAR 20 KT RANGE AT KSBN. A STRAY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE AT KFWA SO WILL LEAVE VCSH MENTION IN.

CIRRUS WILL MOVE OVER TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. MAY BE SOME
ADDITIONAL CU AROUND AS YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 291713
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
113 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY
GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN WESTERN OHIO TO THE UPPER 70S IN
WESTERN INDIANA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
50S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WV IMAGERY INDICATING COUPLE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP SSEWD
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPULSE TO REACH NWRN CWA ABOUT 18-19 UTC. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
5H COLD POOL SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN CWA WITH M16-17C...PROVIDING
IMPRESSIVE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40C SURFACE/5H DIFFERENTIALS.
MODIFIED NAM12/RUC POINT SOUNDINGS WITH LOWER 70S/ABOUT 53F
CONSISTENTLY YIELDS 500-750 J/KG. NOTABLY SMALL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
LCL TO LFC SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST MODERATE VERTICAL CU
DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY. INITIALLY SOME CONCERN THAT BULK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LACKING...THOUGH AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LAYER
MOISTURE WITHIN 850-740MB. LOW POPS RAMPING BY MIDDAY WITH HIGHEST
NORTHEAST CWA COINCIDENT WITH GREATER INSTABILITY/REMOVED FROM
COOLER LAKE MODIFIED ENVIRONMENT PLUS TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND
CONVERGENT SIGNATURE IN LOWEST 100 MB. ALSO OPTED FOR COVERAGE
TYPE WORDING IN THIS AREA AS WELL. LOW/8.5-9KFT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AND OVERALL COLD PROFILE COULD LEAD TO SMALL HAIL
PRODUCTION ASSOCD WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. CONVECTION HIGHLY TIED
TO DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN DECAYING SHOWERS
TOWARD/AFTER SUNSET...MAINLY INTO NWRN CWA/POSSIBLE SE EXTENSION
OF STRONGER SBCAPE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN WI. SLIGHT DOWNWARD
NUDGE TO TEMPS TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN OHIO MORE PROXIMAL TO
925MB THERMAL TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH
TROFFING DOWNSTREAM FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 500 TO 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE OPTIMUM LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FOR HAIL...SO EXPECT SMALL
HAIL IS VERY POSSIBLE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE GFS AND
CANADIAN ANALOGS BOTH SUPPORT A PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH A NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF 850 MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES FAVOR
THE COOLER GFS/MEAN MEX NUMBERS...SO HAVE FORECAST BELOW THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN. ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
GIVEN GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CU HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR WITH BAND OF MID
CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A BIT. AS
THEY LEAVE...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE MET AND SCT TO MAYBE
BROKEN VFR BASED CU SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS KFWA. LAKE
BREEZE/SHADOW WAS ALMOST TO KSBN WITH WIND SHIFT ALREADY
OCCURRING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED AT THE AIRPORT
WITH THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS FROM THIS FEATURE SO HAVE BACKED OFF
ON SKY COVER. BIT OF MIXING ALSO OCCURRING RESULTING IN SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO NEAR 20 KT RANGE AT KSBN. A STRAY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE AT KFWA SO WILL LEAVE VCSH MENTION IN.

CIRRUS WILL MOVE OVER TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. MAY BE SOME
ADDITIONAL CU AROUND AS YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 291713
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
113 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY
GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN WESTERN OHIO TO THE UPPER 70S IN
WESTERN INDIANA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
50S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WV IMAGERY INDICATING COUPLE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP SSEWD
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPULSE TO REACH NWRN CWA ABOUT 18-19 UTC. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
5H COLD POOL SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN CWA WITH M16-17C...PROVIDING
IMPRESSIVE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40C SURFACE/5H DIFFERENTIALS.
MODIFIED NAM12/RUC POINT SOUNDINGS WITH LOWER 70S/ABOUT 53F
CONSISTENTLY YIELDS 500-750 J/KG. NOTABLY SMALL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
LCL TO LFC SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST MODERATE VERTICAL CU
DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY. INITIALLY SOME CONCERN THAT BULK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LACKING...THOUGH AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LAYER
MOISTURE WITHIN 850-740MB. LOW POPS RAMPING BY MIDDAY WITH HIGHEST
NORTHEAST CWA COINCIDENT WITH GREATER INSTABILITY/REMOVED FROM
COOLER LAKE MODIFIED ENVIRONMENT PLUS TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND
CONVERGENT SIGNATURE IN LOWEST 100 MB. ALSO OPTED FOR COVERAGE
TYPE WORDING IN THIS AREA AS WELL. LOW/8.5-9KFT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AND OVERALL COLD PROFILE COULD LEAD TO SMALL HAIL
PRODUCTION ASSOCD WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. CONVECTION HIGHLY TIED
TO DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN DECAYING SHOWERS
TOWARD/AFTER SUNSET...MAINLY INTO NWRN CWA/POSSIBLE SE EXTENSION
OF STRONGER SBCAPE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN WI. SLIGHT DOWNWARD
NUDGE TO TEMPS TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN OHIO MORE PROXIMAL TO
925MB THERMAL TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH
TROFFING DOWNSTREAM FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 500 TO 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE OPTIMUM LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FOR HAIL...SO EXPECT SMALL
HAIL IS VERY POSSIBLE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE GFS AND
CANADIAN ANALOGS BOTH SUPPORT A PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH A NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF 850 MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES FAVOR
THE COOLER GFS/MEAN MEX NUMBERS...SO HAVE FORECAST BELOW THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN. ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
GIVEN GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CU HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS FAR WITH BAND OF MID
CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A BIT. AS
THEY LEAVE...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE MET AND SCT TO MAYBE
BROKEN VFR BASED CU SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS KFWA. LAKE
BREEZE/SHADOW WAS ALMOST TO KSBN WITH WIND SHIFT ALREADY
OCCURRING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED AT THE AIRPORT
WITH THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS FROM THIS FEATURE SO HAVE BACKED OFF
ON SKY COVER. BIT OF MIXING ALSO OCCURRING RESULTING IN SOME WIND
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO NEAR 20 KT RANGE AT KSBN. A STRAY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE AT KFWA SO WILL LEAVE VCSH MENTION IN.

CIRRUS WILL MOVE OVER TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. MAY BE SOME
ADDITIONAL CU AROUND AS YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 291510
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1110 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY
GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN WESTERN OHIO TO THE UPPER 70S IN
WESTERN INDIANA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
50S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WV IMAGERY INDICATING COUPLE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP SSEWD
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPULSE TO REACH NWRN CWA ABOUT 18-19 UTC. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
5H COLD POOL SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN CWA WITH M16-17C...PROVIDING
IMPRESSIVE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40C SURFACE/5H DIFFERENTIALS.
MODIFIED NAM12/RUC POINT SOUNDINGS WITH LOWER 70S/ABOUT 53F
CONSISTENTLY YIELDS 500-750 J/KG. NOTABLY SMALL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
LCL TO LFC SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST MODERATE VERTICAL CU
DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY. INITIALLY SOME CONCERN THAT BULK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LACKING...THOUGH AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LAYER
MOISTURE WITHIN 850-740MB. LOW POPS RAMPING BY MIDDAY WITH HIGHEST
NORTHEAST CWA COINCIDENT WITH GREATER INSTABILITY/REMOVED FROM
COOLER LAKE MODIFIED ENVIRONMENT PLUS TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND
CONVERGENT SIGNATURE IN LOWEST 100 MB. ALSO OPTED FOR COVERAGE
TYPE WORDING IN THIS AREA AS WELL. LOW/8.5-9KFT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AND OVERALL COLD PROFILE COULD LEAD TO SMALL HAIL
PRODUCTION ASSOCD WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. CONVECTION HIGHLY TIED
TO DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN DECAYING SHOWERS
TOWARD/AFTER SUNSET...MAINLY INTO NWRN CWA/POSSIBLE SE EXTENSION
OF STRONGER SBCAPE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN WI. SLIGHT DOWNWARD
NUDGE TO TEMPS TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN OHIO MORE PROXIMAL TO
925MB THERMAL TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH
TROFFING DOWNSTREAM FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 500 TO 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE OPTIMUM LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FOR HAIL...SO EXPECT SMALL
HAIL IS VERY POSSIBLE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE GFS AND
CANADIAN ANALOGS BOTH SUPPORT A PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH A NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF 850 MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES FAVOR
THE COOLER GFS/MEAN MEX NUMBERS...SO HAVE FORECAST BELOW THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN. ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
GIVEN GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO 12 UTC TAFS FOR NORTHERN INDIANA. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
UPSTREAM IMPULSE COMBINED WITH EXTREMELY COLD MID TROPOSPHERIC
PROFILES TO GENERATE DECENT CU FIELD COINCIDENT WITH LATE
AM/MIDDAY SURFACE HEATING. DEGREE OF SURFACE TO 5H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS SUGGEST EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH
PEAK HEATING. AT PRESENT CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KFWA
PER TIMING OF IMPULSE AND SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SIGNALS PRESENTING WELL INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 291510
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1110 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY
GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN WESTERN OHIO TO THE UPPER 70S IN
WESTERN INDIANA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
50S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WV IMAGERY INDICATING COUPLE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP SSEWD
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPULSE TO REACH NWRN CWA ABOUT 18-19 UTC. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
5H COLD POOL SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN CWA WITH M16-17C...PROVIDING
IMPRESSIVE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40C SURFACE/5H DIFFERENTIALS.
MODIFIED NAM12/RUC POINT SOUNDINGS WITH LOWER 70S/ABOUT 53F
CONSISTENTLY YIELDS 500-750 J/KG. NOTABLY SMALL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
LCL TO LFC SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST MODERATE VERTICAL CU
DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY. INITIALLY SOME CONCERN THAT BULK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LACKING...THOUGH AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LAYER
MOISTURE WITHIN 850-740MB. LOW POPS RAMPING BY MIDDAY WITH HIGHEST
NORTHEAST CWA COINCIDENT WITH GREATER INSTABILITY/REMOVED FROM
COOLER LAKE MODIFIED ENVIRONMENT PLUS TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND
CONVERGENT SIGNATURE IN LOWEST 100 MB. ALSO OPTED FOR COVERAGE
TYPE WORDING IN THIS AREA AS WELL. LOW/8.5-9KFT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AND OVERALL COLD PROFILE COULD LEAD TO SMALL HAIL
PRODUCTION ASSOCD WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. CONVECTION HIGHLY TIED
TO DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN DECAYING SHOWERS
TOWARD/AFTER SUNSET...MAINLY INTO NWRN CWA/POSSIBLE SE EXTENSION
OF STRONGER SBCAPE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN WI. SLIGHT DOWNWARD
NUDGE TO TEMPS TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN OHIO MORE PROXIMAL TO
925MB THERMAL TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH
TROFFING DOWNSTREAM FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 500 TO 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE OPTIMUM LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FOR HAIL...SO EXPECT SMALL
HAIL IS VERY POSSIBLE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE GFS AND
CANADIAN ANALOGS BOTH SUPPORT A PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH A NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF 850 MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES FAVOR
THE COOLER GFS/MEAN MEX NUMBERS...SO HAVE FORECAST BELOW THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN. ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
GIVEN GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO 12 UTC TAFS FOR NORTHERN INDIANA. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
UPSTREAM IMPULSE COMBINED WITH EXTREMELY COLD MID TROPOSPHERIC
PROFILES TO GENERATE DECENT CU FIELD COINCIDENT WITH LATE
AM/MIDDAY SURFACE HEATING. DEGREE OF SURFACE TO 5H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS SUGGEST EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH
PEAK HEATING. AT PRESENT CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KFWA
PER TIMING OF IMPULSE AND SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SIGNALS PRESENTING WELL INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 291055
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
655 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK DISTURBANCES WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON TODAY WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WV IMAGERY INDICATING COUPLE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP SSEWD
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPULSE TO REACH NWRN CWA ABOUT 18-19 UTC. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
5H COLD POOL SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN CWA WITH M16-17C...PROVIDING
IMPRESSIVE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40C SURFACE/5H DIFFERENTIALS.
MODIFIED NAM12/RUC POINT SOUNDINGS WITH LOWER 70S/ABOUT 53F
CONSISTENTLY YIELDS 500-750 J/KG. NOTABLY SMALL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
LCL TO LFC SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST MODERATE VERTICAL CU
DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY. INITIALLY SOME CONCERN THAT BULK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LACKING...THOUGH AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LAYER
MOISTURE WITHIN 850-740MB. LOW POPS RAMPING BY MIDDAY WITH HIGHEST
NORTHEAST CWA COINCIDENT WITH GREATER INSTABILITY/REMOVED FROM
COOLER LAKE MODIFIED ENVIRONMENT PLUS TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND
CONVERGENT SIGNATURE IN LOWEST 100 MB. ALSO OPTED FOR COVERAGE
TYPE WORDING IN THIS AREA AS WELL. LOW/8.5-9KFT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AND OVERALL COLD PROFILE COULD LEAD TO SMALL HAIL
PRODUCTION ASSOCD WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. CONVECTION HIGHLY TIED
TO DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN DECAYING SHOWERS
TOWARD/AFTER SUNSET...MAINLY INTO NWRN CWA/POSSIBLE SE EXTENSION
OF STRONGER SBCAPE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN WI. SLIGHT DOWNWARD
NUDGE TO TEMPS TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN OHIO MORE PROXIMAL TO
925MB THERMAL TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH
TROFFING DOWNSTREAM FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 500 TO 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE OPTIMUM LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FOR HAIL...SO EXPECT SMALL
HAIL IS VERY POSSIBLE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE GFS AND
CANADIAN ANALOGS BOTH SUPPORT A PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH A NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF 850 MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES FAVOR
THE COOLER GFS/MEAN MEX NUMBERS...SO HAVE FORECAST BELOW THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN. ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
GIVEN GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO 12 UTC TAFS FOR NORTHERN INDIANA. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
UPSTREAM IMPULSE COMBINED WITH EXTREMELY COLD MID TROPOSPHERIC
PROFILES TO GENERATE DECENT CU FIELD COINCIDENT WITH LATE
AM/MIDDAY SURFACE HEATING. DEGREE OF SURFACE TO 5H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS SUGGEST EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH
PEAK HEATING. AT PRESENT CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KFWA
PER TIMING OF IMPULSE AND SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SIGNALS PRESENTING WELL INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 291055
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
655 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK DISTURBANCES WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON TODAY WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WV IMAGERY INDICATING COUPLE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP SSEWD
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPULSE TO REACH NWRN CWA ABOUT 18-19 UTC. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
5H COLD POOL SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN CWA WITH M16-17C...PROVIDING
IMPRESSIVE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40C SURFACE/5H DIFFERENTIALS.
MODIFIED NAM12/RUC POINT SOUNDINGS WITH LOWER 70S/ABOUT 53F
CONSISTENTLY YIELDS 500-750 J/KG. NOTABLY SMALL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
LCL TO LFC SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST MODERATE VERTICAL CU
DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY. INITIALLY SOME CONCERN THAT BULK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LACKING...THOUGH AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LAYER
MOISTURE WITHIN 850-740MB. LOW POPS RAMPING BY MIDDAY WITH HIGHEST
NORTHEAST CWA COINCIDENT WITH GREATER INSTABILITY/REMOVED FROM
COOLER LAKE MODIFIED ENVIRONMENT PLUS TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND
CONVERGENT SIGNATURE IN LOWEST 100 MB. ALSO OPTED FOR COVERAGE
TYPE WORDING IN THIS AREA AS WELL. LOW/8.5-9KFT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AND OVERALL COLD PROFILE COULD LEAD TO SMALL HAIL
PRODUCTION ASSOCD WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. CONVECTION HIGHLY TIED
TO DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN DECAYING SHOWERS
TOWARD/AFTER SUNSET...MAINLY INTO NWRN CWA/POSSIBLE SE EXTENSION
OF STRONGER SBCAPE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN WI. SLIGHT DOWNWARD
NUDGE TO TEMPS TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN OHIO MORE PROXIMAL TO
925MB THERMAL TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH
TROFFING DOWNSTREAM FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 500 TO 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE OPTIMUM LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FOR HAIL...SO EXPECT SMALL
HAIL IS VERY POSSIBLE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE GFS AND
CANADIAN ANALOGS BOTH SUPPORT A PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH A NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF 850 MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES FAVOR
THE COOLER GFS/MEAN MEX NUMBERS...SO HAVE FORECAST BELOW THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN. ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
GIVEN GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO 12 UTC TAFS FOR NORTHERN INDIANA. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
UPSTREAM IMPULSE COMBINED WITH EXTREMELY COLD MID TROPOSPHERIC
PROFILES TO GENERATE DECENT CU FIELD COINCIDENT WITH LATE
AM/MIDDAY SURFACE HEATING. DEGREE OF SURFACE TO 5H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS SUGGEST EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH
PEAK HEATING. AT PRESENT CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KFWA
PER TIMING OF IMPULSE AND SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SIGNALS PRESENTING WELL INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 290846
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
446 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK DISTURBANCES WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON TDAY WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WV IMAGERY INDICATING COUPLE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP SSEWD
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPULSE TO REACH NWRN CWA ABOUT 18-19 UTC. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
5H COLD POOL SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN CWA WITH M16-17C...PROVIDING
IMPRESSIVE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40C SURFACE/5H DIFFERENTIALS.
MODIFIED NAM12/RUC POINT SOUNDINGS WITH LOWER 70S/ABOUT 53F
CONSISTENTLY YIELDS 500-750 J/KG. NOTABLY SMALL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
LCL TO LFC SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST MODERATE VERTICAL CU
DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY. INITIALLY SOME CONCERN THAT BULK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LACKING...THOUGH AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LAYER
MOISTURE WITHIN 850-740MB. LOW POPS RAMPING BY MIDDAY WITH HIGHEST
NORTHEAST CWA COINCIDENT WITH GREATER INSTABILITY/REMOVED FROM
COOLER LAKE MODIFIED ENVIRONMENT PLUS TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND
CONVERGENT SIGNATURE IN LOWEST 100 MB. ALSO OPTED FOR COVERAGE
TYPE WORDING IN THIS AREA AS WELL. LOW/8.5-9KFT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AND OVERALL COLD PROFILE COULD LEAD TO SMALL HAIL
PRODUCTION ASSOCD WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. CONVECTION HIGHLY TIED
TO DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN DECAYING SHOWERS
TOWARD/AFTER SUNSET...MAINLY INTO NWRN CWA/POSSIBLE SE EXTENSION
OF STRONGER SBCAPE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN WI. SLIGHT DOWNWARD
NUDGE TO TEMPS TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN OHIO MORE PROXIMAL TO
925MB THERMAL TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH
TROFFING DOWNSTREAM FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 500 TO 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE OPTIMUM LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FOR HAIL...SO EXPECT SMALL
HAIL IS VERY POSSIBLE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE GFS AND
CANADIAN ANALOGS BOTH SUPPORT A PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH A NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF 850 MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES FAVOR
THE COOLER GFS/MEAN MEX NUMBERS...SO HAVE FORECAST BELOW THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN. ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
GIVEN GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
UPSTREAM IMPULSE COMBINED WITH EXTREMELY COLD MID TROPOSPHERIC
PROFILES SHOULD EASILY GENERATE CU FIELD COINCIDENT WITH MID/LATE
AM SURFACE HEATING. PRESENCE OF MOISTURE PER AMDAR SOUNDINGS IN
850-740MB LAYER AS WELL AS DEGREE OF SURFACE TO 5H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS SUGGEST EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH
PEAK HEATING. AT PRESENT HAVE ONLY ADDED MENTION VCSH TO KFWA PER
TIMING OF IMPULSE AND SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SIGNALS PRESENTING WELL INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 290846
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
446 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK DISTURBANCES WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON TDAY WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WV IMAGERY INDICATING COUPLE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP SSEWD
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPULSE TO REACH NWRN CWA ABOUT 18-19 UTC. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
5H COLD POOL SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN CWA WITH M16-17C...PROVIDING
IMPRESSIVE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40C SURFACE/5H DIFFERENTIALS.
MODIFIED NAM12/RUC POINT SOUNDINGS WITH LOWER 70S/ABOUT 53F
CONSISTENTLY YIELDS 500-750 J/KG. NOTABLY SMALL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
LCL TO LFC SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST MODERATE VERTICAL CU
DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY. INITIALLY SOME CONCERN THAT BULK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LACKING...THOUGH AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LAYER
MOISTURE WITHIN 850-740MB. LOW POPS RAMPING BY MIDDAY WITH HIGHEST
NORTHEAST CWA COINCIDENT WITH GREATER INSTABILITY/REMOVED FROM
COOLER LAKE MODIFIED ENVIRONMENT PLUS TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND
CONVERGENT SIGNATURE IN LOWEST 100 MB. ALSO OPTED FOR COVERAGE
TYPE WORDING IN THIS AREA AS WELL. LOW/8.5-9KFT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AND OVERALL COLD PROFILE COULD LEAD TO SMALL HAIL
PRODUCTION ASSOCD WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. CONVECTION HIGHLY TIED
TO DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN DECAYING SHOWERS
TOWARD/AFTER SUNSET...MAINLY INTO NWRN CWA/POSSIBLE SE EXTENSION
OF STRONGER SBCAPE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN WI. SLIGHT DOWNWARD
NUDGE TO TEMPS TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN OHIO MORE PROXIMAL TO
925MB THERMAL TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH
TROFFING DOWNSTREAM FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 500 TO 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE OPTIMUM LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FOR HAIL...SO EXPECT SMALL
HAIL IS VERY POSSIBLE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE GFS AND
CANADIAN ANALOGS BOTH SUPPORT A PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH A NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF 850 MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES FAVOR
THE COOLER GFS/MEAN MEX NUMBERS...SO HAVE FORECAST BELOW THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN. ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
GIVEN GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
UPSTREAM IMPULSE COMBINED WITH EXTREMELY COLD MID TROPOSPHERIC
PROFILES SHOULD EASILY GENERATE CU FIELD COINCIDENT WITH MID/LATE
AM SURFACE HEATING. PRESENCE OF MOISTURE PER AMDAR SOUNDINGS IN
850-740MB LAYER AS WELL AS DEGREE OF SURFACE TO 5H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS SUGGEST EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH
PEAK HEATING. AT PRESENT HAVE ONLY ADDED MENTION VCSH TO KFWA PER
TIMING OF IMPULSE AND SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SIGNALS PRESENTING WELL INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 290555
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THIS EVENING HAS
ALLOWED FOR LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST PAST DIURNAL PEAK HEATING...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS VORT MAX SLIDES INTO
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT MAX ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO BUILD
BACK INTO FAR NORTHWEST LOCATIONS LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HAVE
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. ONLY
OTHER CHANGE THAT MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR EVENING UPDATE IS SLIGHTLY
COOLER MINS...WITH SOME LOCALIZED UPPER 40S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION GIVEN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A PLEASANT BUT COLD PERIOD WILL BE IN STORE AS POCKET OF COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR A RAPID DROP IN TEMPS.
LATER TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. CHALLENGE COMES WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOL THUNDER STARTING MID MORNING TUES INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. 500 MB TEMPS GET TOWARDS -16 C IN THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT
OVERALL LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850 MB RATHER POOR. 1000-850 MB LAPSE
RATES NOT BAD AND ENOUGH TO GET CU POPPING AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
TO AT BEST SCT SHOWERS. MODELS VARY...BUT DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 1KM
MIXED LAYER CAPE BETWEEN 400 J/KG (SREF) AND 1000 J/KG (NAM). THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MENTION OF THUNDER. HAVE LEFT AT
SLGT CHC FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

IN LIGHT OF CONSENSUS POSITIONING OF MID LVL TROUGH AND DRY AIRMASS
RESIDING OVR THE LAKES THREW OUT ALLBLEND POP GUIDANCE AS
UNSEASONABLE COOL LAKE COMPOSITE THETA-E SINK CONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
UPSTREAM IMPULSE COMBINED WITH EXTREMELY COLD MID TROPOSPHERIC
PROFILES SHOULD EASILY GENERATE CU FIELD COINCIDENT WITH MID/LATE
AM SURFACE HEATING. PRESENCE OF MOISTURE PER AMDAR SOUNDINGS IN
850-740MB LAYER AS WELL AS DEGREE OF SURFACE TO 5H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS SUGGEST EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH
PEAK HEATING. AT PRESENT HAVE ONLY ADDED MENTION VCSH TO KFWA PER
TIMING OF IMPULSE AND SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SIGNALS PRESENTING WELL INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 290555
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THIS EVENING HAS
ALLOWED FOR LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST PAST DIURNAL PEAK HEATING...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS VORT MAX SLIDES INTO
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT MAX ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO BUILD
BACK INTO FAR NORTHWEST LOCATIONS LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HAVE
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. ONLY
OTHER CHANGE THAT MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR EVENING UPDATE IS SLIGHTLY
COOLER MINS...WITH SOME LOCALIZED UPPER 40S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION GIVEN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A PLEASANT BUT COLD PERIOD WILL BE IN STORE AS POCKET OF COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR A RAPID DROP IN TEMPS.
LATER TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. CHALLENGE COMES WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOL THUNDER STARTING MID MORNING TUES INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. 500 MB TEMPS GET TOWARDS -16 C IN THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT
OVERALL LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850 MB RATHER POOR. 1000-850 MB LAPSE
RATES NOT BAD AND ENOUGH TO GET CU POPPING AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
TO AT BEST SCT SHOWERS. MODELS VARY...BUT DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 1KM
MIXED LAYER CAPE BETWEEN 400 J/KG (SREF) AND 1000 J/KG (NAM). THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MENTION OF THUNDER. HAVE LEFT AT
SLGT CHC FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

IN LIGHT OF CONSENSUS POSITIONING OF MID LVL TROUGH AND DRY AIRMASS
RESIDING OVR THE LAKES THREW OUT ALLBLEND POP GUIDANCE AS
UNSEASONABLE COOL LAKE COMPOSITE THETA-E SINK CONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
UPSTREAM IMPULSE COMBINED WITH EXTREMELY COLD MID TROPOSPHERIC
PROFILES SHOULD EASILY GENERATE CU FIELD COINCIDENT WITH MID/LATE
AM SURFACE HEATING. PRESENCE OF MOISTURE PER AMDAR SOUNDINGS IN
850-740MB LAYER AS WELL AS DEGREE OF SURFACE TO 5H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS SUGGEST EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH
PEAK HEATING. AT PRESENT HAVE ONLY ADDED MENTION VCSH TO KFWA PER
TIMING OF IMPULSE AND SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SIGNALS PRESENTING WELL INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 290053
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
853 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.T HERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THIS EVENING HAS
ALLOWED FOR LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST PAST DIURNAL PEAK HEATING...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS VORT MAX SLIDES INTO
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT MAX ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO BUILD
BACK INTO FAR NORTHWEST LOCATIONS LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HAVE
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. ONLY
OTHER CHANGE THAT MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR EVENING UPDATE IS SLIGHTLY
COOLER MINS...WITH SOME LOCALIZED UPPER 40S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION GIVEN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A PLEASANT BUT COLD PERIOD WILL BE IN STORE AS POCKET OF COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR A RAPID DROP IN TEMPS.
LATER TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. CHALLENGE COMES WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOL THUNDER STARTING MID MORNING TUES INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. 500 MB TEMPS GET TOWARDS -16 C IN THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT
OVERALL LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850 MB RATHER POOR. 1000-850 MB LAPSE
RATES NOT BAD AND ENOUGH TO GET CU POPPING AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
TO AT BEST SCT SHOWERS. MODELS VARY...BUT DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 1KM
MIXED LAYER CAPE BETWEEN 400 J/KG (SREF) AND 1000 J/KG (NAM). THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MENTION OF THUNDER. HAVE LEFT AT
SLGT CHC FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

IN LIGHT OF CONSENSUS POSITIONING OF MID LVL TROUGH AND DRY AIRMASS
RESIDING OVR THE LAKES THREW OUT ALLBLEND POP GUIDANCE AS
UNSEASONABLE COOL LAKE COMPOSITE THETA-E SINK CONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL MIXING...WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF VFR LOW CLOUDS WORKING
INTO KSBN OVERNIGHT. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT MAX TO DROP INTO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING DURING PEAK HEATING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. HIGHER STABILITY WITH LAKE MICHIGAN SHADOW SHOULD LIMIT
SHOWER POTENTIAL AT KSBN. WILL OMIT ANY PRECIP MENTION FROM BOTH
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...WITH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. WEST WINDS EARLY
TUESDAY SHOULD VEER NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS NEXT SFC TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 290053
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
853 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.T HERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THIS EVENING HAS
ALLOWED FOR LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST PAST DIURNAL PEAK HEATING...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS VORT MAX SLIDES INTO
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT MAX ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO BUILD
BACK INTO FAR NORTHWEST LOCATIONS LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HAVE
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. ONLY
OTHER CHANGE THAT MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR EVENING UPDATE IS SLIGHTLY
COOLER MINS...WITH SOME LOCALIZED UPPER 40S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION GIVEN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A PLEASANT BUT COLD PERIOD WILL BE IN STORE AS POCKET OF COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR A RAPID DROP IN TEMPS.
LATER TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. CHALLENGE COMES WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOL THUNDER STARTING MID MORNING TUES INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. 500 MB TEMPS GET TOWARDS -16 C IN THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT
OVERALL LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850 MB RATHER POOR. 1000-850 MB LAPSE
RATES NOT BAD AND ENOUGH TO GET CU POPPING AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
TO AT BEST SCT SHOWERS. MODELS VARY...BUT DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 1KM
MIXED LAYER CAPE BETWEEN 400 J/KG (SREF) AND 1000 J/KG (NAM). THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MENTION OF THUNDER. HAVE LEFT AT
SLGT CHC FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

IN LIGHT OF CONSENSUS POSITIONING OF MID LVL TROUGH AND DRY AIRMASS
RESIDING OVR THE LAKES THREW OUT ALLBLEND POP GUIDANCE AS
UNSEASONABLE COOL LAKE COMPOSITE THETA-E SINK CONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL MIXING...WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF VFR LOW CLOUDS WORKING
INTO KSBN OVERNIGHT. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT MAX TO DROP INTO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING DURING PEAK HEATING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. HIGHER STABILITY WITH LAKE MICHIGAN SHADOW SHOULD LIMIT
SHOWER POTENTIAL AT KSBN. WILL OMIT ANY PRECIP MENTION FROM BOTH
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...WITH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. WEST WINDS EARLY
TUESDAY SHOULD VEER NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS NEXT SFC TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 281939
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
339 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.T HERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A PLEASANT BUT COLD PERIOD WILL BE IN STORE AS POCKET OF COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR A RAPID DROP IN TEMPS.
LATER TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. CHALLENGE COMES WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOL THUNDER STARTING MID MORNING TUES INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. 500 MB TEMPS GET TOWARDS -16 C IN THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT
OVERALL LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850 MB RATHER POOR. 1000-850 MB LAPSE
RATES NOT BAD AND ENOUGH TO GET CU POPPING AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
TO AT BEST SCT SHOWERS. MODELS VARY...BUT DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 1KM
MIXED LAYER CAPE BETWEEN 400 J/KG (SREF) AND 1000 J/KG (NAM). THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MENTION OF THUNDER. HAVE LEFT AT
SLGT CHC FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

IN LIGHT OF CONSENSUS POSITIONING OF MID LVL TROUGH AND DRY AIRMASS
RESIDING OVR THE LAKES THREW OUT ALLBLEND POP GUIDANCE AS
UNSEASONABLE COOL LAKE COMPOSITE THETA-E SINK CONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BUT NOT WORTHY OF ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 281939
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
339 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.T HERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A PLEASANT BUT COLD PERIOD WILL BE IN STORE AS POCKET OF COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR A RAPID DROP IN TEMPS.
LATER TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. CHALLENGE COMES WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOL THUNDER STARTING MID MORNING TUES INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. 500 MB TEMPS GET TOWARDS -16 C IN THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT
OVERALL LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850 MB RATHER POOR. 1000-850 MB LAPSE
RATES NOT BAD AND ENOUGH TO GET CU POPPING AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
TO AT BEST SCT SHOWERS. MODELS VARY...BUT DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 1KM
MIXED LAYER CAPE BETWEEN 400 J/KG (SREF) AND 1000 J/KG (NAM). THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MENTION OF THUNDER. HAVE LEFT AT
SLGT CHC FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

IN LIGHT OF CONSENSUS POSITIONING OF MID LVL TROUGH AND DRY AIRMASS
RESIDING OVR THE LAKES THREW OUT ALLBLEND POP GUIDANCE AS
UNSEASONABLE COOL LAKE COMPOSITE THETA-E SINK CONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BUT NOT WORTHY OF ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 281811
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
211 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED STORMS ON SUNDAY. LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S...EXCEPT UPPER 60S CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

BENIGN NEAR TERM WITH EXPUNGEMENT OF WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE VORTEX PRESENTLY OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD TRACK INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY. WHEREUPON VORTEX IS
SHUNTED NORTHWARD BY STALWART BLOCKING REGIME OVER NORTHERN/WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND RIDGING FROM TEXAS PLATEAU NORTHWARD INTO FAR NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA. PRIMARY NORTHERN QUEBEC LONGWAVE TO GRADUALLY
RETROGRADE TO JAMES BAY BY 12 UTC TUE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS TYPICALLY
10-15F COOLER OVER 24 HOURS PRIOR...PRIMARILY IN MID/UPPER 50S.
NAM12 AND TO LESSER EXTENT HRRR3KM ATTEMPT TO GENERATE LIGHT SHRA BY
MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS SERN CWA. MODIFIED POINT
SOUNDINGS OF 79/56 YIELD ONLY LTE 200 J/KG AND SUSPECT DEGREE OF DRY
AIR AOA 750 MB TO PROVIDE AMPLE DRY ENVIRONMENTAL AIR ENTRAINMENT TO
HINDER CU FIELDS VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND LEAN TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST. 925MB THERMAL TROF UPSTREAM THIS AM FROM LAKE HURON SWD
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MI TO SOUTHERN WI...AND PROGGED OVERHEAD BY
00 UTC TUE. THIS ALONG WITH EASTWARD EXTENSION OF NORTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE INTO NORTHERN IL/NWRN IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID
DECOUPLE/STRONG LONGWAVE LOSSES FOR LOWS GENERALLY ABOUT 10F BELOW
CLIMO TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN THAT HIGH BASED STRATOCU DECK MAY IN
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER
PRESENCE UNCERTAIN AND TIMING SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH TO HAVE ALREADY
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO LWR 50S BY THE EARLY AM HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. ON TUESDAY...COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG PER MODIFIED NAM/WRF SOUNDING. THE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSTREAM ENERGY SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...GFS AND ECMWF
850 MB FORECAST TEMPS WERE VERY UNIFORM FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 11C AND 13C. FAVOR THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE
TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BUT NOT WORTHY OF ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 281811
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
211 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED STORMS ON SUNDAY. LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S...EXCEPT UPPER 60S CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

BENIGN NEAR TERM WITH EXPUNGEMENT OF WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE VORTEX PRESENTLY OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD TRACK INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY. WHEREUPON VORTEX IS
SHUNTED NORTHWARD BY STALWART BLOCKING REGIME OVER NORTHERN/WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND RIDGING FROM TEXAS PLATEAU NORTHWARD INTO FAR NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA. PRIMARY NORTHERN QUEBEC LONGWAVE TO GRADUALLY
RETROGRADE TO JAMES BAY BY 12 UTC TUE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS TYPICALLY
10-15F COOLER OVER 24 HOURS PRIOR...PRIMARILY IN MID/UPPER 50S.
NAM12 AND TO LESSER EXTENT HRRR3KM ATTEMPT TO GENERATE LIGHT SHRA BY
MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS SERN CWA. MODIFIED POINT
SOUNDINGS OF 79/56 YIELD ONLY LTE 200 J/KG AND SUSPECT DEGREE OF DRY
AIR AOA 750 MB TO PROVIDE AMPLE DRY ENVIRONMENTAL AIR ENTRAINMENT TO
HINDER CU FIELDS VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND LEAN TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST. 925MB THERMAL TROF UPSTREAM THIS AM FROM LAKE HURON SWD
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MI TO SOUTHERN WI...AND PROGGED OVERHEAD BY
00 UTC TUE. THIS ALONG WITH EASTWARD EXTENSION OF NORTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE INTO NORTHERN IL/NWRN IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID
DECOUPLE/STRONG LONGWAVE LOSSES FOR LOWS GENERALLY ABOUT 10F BELOW
CLIMO TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN THAT HIGH BASED STRATOCU DECK MAY IN
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER
PRESENCE UNCERTAIN AND TIMING SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH TO HAVE ALREADY
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO LWR 50S BY THE EARLY AM HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. ON TUESDAY...COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG PER MODIFIED NAM/WRF SOUNDING. THE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSTREAM ENERGY SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...GFS AND ECMWF
850 MB FORECAST TEMPS WERE VERY UNIFORM FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 11C AND 13C. FAVOR THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE
TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BUT NOT WORTHY OF ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 281057
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
657 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED STORMS ON SUNDAY. LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S...EXCEPT UPPER 60S CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

BENIGN NEAR TERM WITH EXPUNGEMENT OF WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE VORTEX PRESENTLY OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD TRACK INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY. WHEREUPON VORTEX IS
SHUNTED NORTHWARD BY STALWART BLOCKING REGIME OVER NORTHERN/WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND RIDGING FROM TEXAS PLATEAU NORTHWARD INTO FAR NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA. PRIMARY NORTHERN QUEBEC LONGWAVE TO GRADUALLY
RETROGRADE TO JAMES BAY BY 12 UTC TUE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS TYPICALLY
10-15F COOLER OVER 24 HOURS PRIOR...PRIMARILY IN MID/UPPER 50S.
NAM12 AND TO LESSER EXTENT HRRR3KM ATTEMPT TO GENERATE LIGHT SHRA BY
MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS SERN CWA. MODIFIED POINT
SOUNDINGS OF 79/56 YIELD ONLY LTE 200 J/KG AND SUSPECT DEGREE OF DRY
AIR AOA 750 MB TO PROVIDE AMPLE DRY ENVIRONMENTAL AIR ENTRAINMENT TO
HINDER CU FIELDS VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND LEAN TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST. 925MB THERMAL TROF UPSTREAM THIS AM FROM LAKE HURON SWD
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MI TO SOUTHERN WI...AND PROGGED OVERHEAD BY
00 UTC TUE. THIS ALONG WITH EASTWARD EXTENSION OF NORTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE INTO NORTHERN IL/NWRN IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID
DECOUPLE/STRONG LONGWAVE LOSSES FOR LOWS GENERALLY ABOUT 10F BELOW
CLIMO TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN THAT HIGH BASED STRATOCU DECK MAY IN
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER
PRESENCE UNCERTAIN AND TIMING SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH TO HAVE ALREADY
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO LWR 50S BY THE EARLY AM HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. ON TUESDAY...COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG PER MODIFIED NAM/WRF SOUNDING. THE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSTREAM ENERGY SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...GFS AND ECMWF
850 MB FORECAST TEMPS WERE VERY UNIFORM FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 11C AND 13C. FAVOR THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE
TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

WELL MIXED/MOIST RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AM WITH GENERALLY
MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF
FUELING/ALTERNATE CONDITIONS AT KFWA IN HEART OF RICHER MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE BKN HIGH END MVFR CU FIELD THROUGH MID/LATE
AM IN RESIDUAL MOISTURE/RELATIVE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THEREAFTER VFR MET CONDITIONS AS CU FIELD TO RAPIDLY LIFTS/
DISINTEGRATE WITH RISING CONDENSATION LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR ENTRAINS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 281057
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
657 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED STORMS ON SUNDAY. LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S...EXCEPT UPPER 60S CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

BENIGN NEAR TERM WITH EXPUNGEMENT OF WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE VORTEX PRESENTLY OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD TRACK INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY. WHEREUPON VORTEX IS
SHUNTED NORTHWARD BY STALWART BLOCKING REGIME OVER NORTHERN/WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND RIDGING FROM TEXAS PLATEAU NORTHWARD INTO FAR NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA. PRIMARY NORTHERN QUEBEC LONGWAVE TO GRADUALLY
RETROGRADE TO JAMES BAY BY 12 UTC TUE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS TYPICALLY
10-15F COOLER OVER 24 HOURS PRIOR...PRIMARILY IN MID/UPPER 50S.
NAM12 AND TO LESSER EXTENT HRRR3KM ATTEMPT TO GENERATE LIGHT SHRA BY
MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS SERN CWA. MODIFIED POINT
SOUNDINGS OF 79/56 YIELD ONLY LTE 200 J/KG AND SUSPECT DEGREE OF DRY
AIR AOA 750 MB TO PROVIDE AMPLE DRY ENVIRONMENTAL AIR ENTRAINMENT TO
HINDER CU FIELDS VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND LEAN TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST. 925MB THERMAL TROF UPSTREAM THIS AM FROM LAKE HURON SWD
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MI TO SOUTHERN WI...AND PROGGED OVERHEAD BY
00 UTC TUE. THIS ALONG WITH EASTWARD EXTENSION OF NORTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE INTO NORTHERN IL/NWRN IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID
DECOUPLE/STRONG LONGWAVE LOSSES FOR LOWS GENERALLY ABOUT 10F BELOW
CLIMO TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN THAT HIGH BASED STRATOCU DECK MAY IN
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER
PRESENCE UNCERTAIN AND TIMING SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH TO HAVE ALREADY
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO LWR 50S BY THE EARLY AM HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. ON TUESDAY...COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG PER MODIFIED NAM/WRF SOUNDING. THE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSTREAM ENERGY SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...GFS AND ECMWF
850 MB FORECAST TEMPS WERE VERY UNIFORM FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 11C AND 13C. FAVOR THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE
TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

WELL MIXED/MOIST RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AM WITH GENERALLY
MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF
FUELING/ALTERNATE CONDITIONS AT KFWA IN HEART OF RICHER MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE BKN HIGH END MVFR CU FIELD THROUGH MID/LATE
AM IN RESIDUAL MOISTURE/RELATIVE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THEREAFTER VFR MET CONDITIONS AS CU FIELD TO RAPIDLY LIFTS/
DISINTEGRATE WITH RISING CONDENSATION LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR ENTRAINS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 280834
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
434 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED STORMS ON SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S...EXCEPT UPPER 60S CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

BENIGN NEAR TERM WITH EXPUNGEMENT OF WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE VORTEX PRESENTLY OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD TRACK INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY. WHEREUPON VORTEX IS
SHUNTED NORTHWARD BY STALWART BLOCKING REGIME OVER NORTHERN/WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND RIDGING FROM TEXAS PLATEAU NORTHWARD INTO FAR NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA. PRIMARY NORTHERN QUEBEC LONGWAVE TO GRADUALLY
RETROGRADE TO JAMES BAY BY 12 UTC TUE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS TYPICALLY
10-15F COOLER OVER 24 HOURS PRIOR...PRIMARILY IN MID/UPPER 50S.
NAM12 AND TO LESSER EXTENT HRRR3KM ATTEMPT TO GENERATE LIGHT SHRA BY
MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS SERN CWA. MODIFIED POINT
SOUNDINGS OF 79/56 YIELD ONLY LTE 200 J/KG AND SUSPECT DEGREE OF DRY
AIR AOA 750 MB TO PROVIDE AMPLE DRY ENVIRONMENTAL AIR ENTRAINMENT TO
HINDER CU FIELDS VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND LEAN TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST. 925MB THERMAL TROF UPSTREAM THIS AM FROM LAKE HURON SWD
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MI TO SOUTHERN WI...AND PROGGED OVERHEAD BY
00 UTC TUE. THIS ALONG WITH EASTWARD EXTENSION OF NORTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE INTO NORTHERN IL/NWRN IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID
DECOUPLE/STRONG LONGWAVE LOSSES FOR LOWS GENERALLY ABOUT 10F BELOW
CLIMO TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN THAT HIGH BASED STRATOCU DECK MAY IN
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER
PRESENCE UNCERTAIN AND TIMING SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH TO HAVE ALREADY
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO LWR 50S BY THE EARLY AM HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. ON TUESDAY...COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG PER MODIFIED NAM/WRF SOUNDING. THE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSTREAM ENERGY SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...GFS AND ECMWF
850 MB FORECAST TEMPS WERE VERY UNIFORM FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 11C AND 13C. FAVOR THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE
TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STRONG 20-25KT NWRLY FLOW THROUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR
STRATUS DECK TO COVER NORTHERN IN/LOWER MI PENINSULA. ADDITIVE
LAKE MI MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS ACROSS SW LWR MI
THAT COULD EFFECT KSBN AND COVER WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY
AM HOURS. MORE OPTIMISTIC AT KFWA FARTHER REMOVED FROM LAKE
ENVIRONMENT AND LET PREDOMINANT FUELING/ALTERNATE REQUIREMENTS
SUFFICE UNTIL 14 UTC. THEREAFTER...GREATER MIXING AND EXTREMELY
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL AID IN RISING CU BASES WITH RELATIVELY RAPID
CLOUD COVERAGE DECAY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 280834
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
434 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED STORMS ON SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S...EXCEPT UPPER 60S CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

BENIGN NEAR TERM WITH EXPUNGEMENT OF WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE VORTEX PRESENTLY OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD TRACK INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY. WHEREUPON VORTEX IS
SHUNTED NORTHWARD BY STALWART BLOCKING REGIME OVER NORTHERN/WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND RIDGING FROM TEXAS PLATEAU NORTHWARD INTO FAR NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA. PRIMARY NORTHERN QUEBEC LONGWAVE TO GRADUALLY
RETROGRADE TO JAMES BAY BY 12 UTC TUE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS TYPICALLY
10-15F COOLER OVER 24 HOURS PRIOR...PRIMARILY IN MID/UPPER 50S.
NAM12 AND TO LESSER EXTENT HRRR3KM ATTEMPT TO GENERATE LIGHT SHRA BY
MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS SERN CWA. MODIFIED POINT
SOUNDINGS OF 79/56 YIELD ONLY LTE 200 J/KG AND SUSPECT DEGREE OF DRY
AIR AOA 750 MB TO PROVIDE AMPLE DRY ENVIRONMENTAL AIR ENTRAINMENT TO
HINDER CU FIELDS VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND LEAN TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST. 925MB THERMAL TROF UPSTREAM THIS AM FROM LAKE HURON SWD
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MI TO SOUTHERN WI...AND PROGGED OVERHEAD BY
00 UTC TUE. THIS ALONG WITH EASTWARD EXTENSION OF NORTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE INTO NORTHERN IL/NWRN IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID
DECOUPLE/STRONG LONGWAVE LOSSES FOR LOWS GENERALLY ABOUT 10F BELOW
CLIMO TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN THAT HIGH BASED STRATOCU DECK MAY IN
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER
PRESENCE UNCERTAIN AND TIMING SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH TO HAVE ALREADY
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO LWR 50S BY THE EARLY AM HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. ON TUESDAY...COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG PER MODIFIED NAM/WRF SOUNDING. THE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSTREAM ENERGY SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...GFS AND ECMWF
850 MB FORECAST TEMPS WERE VERY UNIFORM FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 11C AND 13C. FAVOR THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE
TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STRONG 20-25KT NWRLY FLOW THROUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR
STRATUS DECK TO COVER NORTHERN IN/LOWER MI PENINSULA. ADDITIVE
LAKE MI MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS ACROSS SW LWR MI
THAT COULD EFFECT KSBN AND COVER WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY
AM HOURS. MORE OPTIMISTIC AT KFWA FARTHER REMOVED FROM LAKE
ENVIRONMENT AND LET PREDOMINANT FUELING/ALTERNATE REQUIREMENTS
SUFFICE UNTIL 14 UTC. THEREAFTER...GREATER MIXING AND EXTREMELY
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL AID IN RISING CU BASES WITH RELATIVELY RAPID
CLOUD COVERAGE DECAY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 280551
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
151 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED STORMS ON SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 69 AND FOCUSED ALONG DISTINCT
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE LINKED
TO SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN SHARPENED BY
MARINE INFLUENCE AND SEVERAL RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AXIS OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA...AND WHILE
MAINTENANCE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO...STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SUBSEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. SOME SMALL TWEAKS MADE TO POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS POTENTIALLY CONTAINING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT ON LEADING EDGE OF COLD POCKET ALOFT EDGES
EAST OVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. SVR WATCH 446 HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FA WITH CONVECTIVE LINE ALREADY INTO NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI AS OF 1830Z GIVEN MLCAPE EROSION WITH TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES. RESULTING
SBCAPE RESERVOIR NEAR 3000 J/KG AMID 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FAVORS ORGANIZATION AND THIS HAIL/WIND THREAT. THE TORNADO
RISK REMAINS LOW GIVEN MEAGER 0-1 KM HELICITY/SHEAR VALUES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER TO LINGER
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO THIS EVENING UNDER
A COMPACT CLOSED LOW FCST TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES FROM CENTRAL WI.

CAA REGIME IN DEEPENING NNW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE/CDFNT SHOULD ENSURE DRY/MUCH COOLER WEATHER LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

SOME CONVOLUTED SUGGESTION IN SOME MED RANGE GUIDANCE OF TERTIARY
DISTURBANCES WRAPPING THROUGH THE BASE OF MID LVL THROUGH CNTRD
THROUGH THE ERN LAKES...PARTICULARLY THE OP GFS DEPICTION ON TUE/
WED. HWVR IT STANDS ALONE IN DROPPING A SW DISTURBANCE WELL SWD OF
ANY OTHER GUIDANCE. AS SUCH WILL HOLD W/DRY WX THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STRONG 20-25KT NWRLY FLOW THROUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR
STRATUS DECK TO COVER NORTHERN IN/LOWER MI PENINSULA. ADDITIVE
LAKE MI MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS ACROSS SW LWR MI
THAT COULD EFFECT KSBN AND COVER WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY
AM HOURS. MORE OPTIMISTIC AT KFWA FARTHER REMOVED FROM LAKE
ENVIRONMENT AND LET PREDOMINANT FUELING/ALTERNATE REQUIREMENTS
SUFFICE UNTIL 14 UTC. THEREAFTER...GREATER MIXING AND EXTREMELY
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL AID IN RISING CU BASES WITH RELATIVELY RAPID
CLOUD COVERAGE DECAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 280551
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
151 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED STORMS ON SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 69 AND FOCUSED ALONG DISTINCT
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE LINKED
TO SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN SHARPENED BY
MARINE INFLUENCE AND SEVERAL RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AXIS OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA...AND WHILE
MAINTENANCE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO...STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SUBSEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. SOME SMALL TWEAKS MADE TO POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS POTENTIALLY CONTAINING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT ON LEADING EDGE OF COLD POCKET ALOFT EDGES
EAST OVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. SVR WATCH 446 HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FA WITH CONVECTIVE LINE ALREADY INTO NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI AS OF 1830Z GIVEN MLCAPE EROSION WITH TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES. RESULTING
SBCAPE RESERVOIR NEAR 3000 J/KG AMID 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FAVORS ORGANIZATION AND THIS HAIL/WIND THREAT. THE TORNADO
RISK REMAINS LOW GIVEN MEAGER 0-1 KM HELICITY/SHEAR VALUES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER TO LINGER
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO THIS EVENING UNDER
A COMPACT CLOSED LOW FCST TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES FROM CENTRAL WI.

CAA REGIME IN DEEPENING NNW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE/CDFNT SHOULD ENSURE DRY/MUCH COOLER WEATHER LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

SOME CONVOLUTED SUGGESTION IN SOME MED RANGE GUIDANCE OF TERTIARY
DISTURBANCES WRAPPING THROUGH THE BASE OF MID LVL THROUGH CNTRD
THROUGH THE ERN LAKES...PARTICULARLY THE OP GFS DEPICTION ON TUE/
WED. HWVR IT STANDS ALONE IN DROPPING A SW DISTURBANCE WELL SWD OF
ANY OTHER GUIDANCE. AS SUCH WILL HOLD W/DRY WX THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STRONG 20-25KT NWRLY FLOW THROUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR
STRATUS DECK TO COVER NORTHERN IN/LOWER MI PENINSULA. ADDITIVE
LAKE MI MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS ACROSS SW LWR MI
THAT COULD EFFECT KSBN AND COVER WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY
AM HOURS. MORE OPTIMISTIC AT KFWA FARTHER REMOVED FROM LAKE
ENVIRONMENT AND LET PREDOMINANT FUELING/ALTERNATE REQUIREMENTS
SUFFICE UNTIL 14 UTC. THEREAFTER...GREATER MIXING AND EXTREMELY
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL AID IN RISING CU BASES WITH RELATIVELY RAPID
CLOUD COVERAGE DECAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 280043
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
843 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 69 AND FOCUSED ALONG DISTINCT
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE LINKED
TO SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN SHARPENED BY
MARINE INFLUENCE AND SEVERAL RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AXIS OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA...AND WHILE
MAINTENANCE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO...STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SUBSEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. SOME SMALL TWEAKS MADE TO POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS POTENTIALLY CONTAINING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT ON LEADING EDGE OF COLD POCKET ALOFT EDGES
EAST OVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. SVR WATCH 446 HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FA WITH CONVECTIVE LINE ALREADY INTO NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI AS OF 1830Z GIVEN MLCAPE EROSION WITH TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES. RESULTING
SBCAPE RESERVOIR NEAR 3000 J/KG AMID 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FAVORS ORGANIZATION AND THIS HAIL/WIND THREAT. THE TORNADO
RISK REMAINS LOW GIVEN MEAGER 0-1 KM HELICITY/SHEAR VALUES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER TO LINGER
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO THIS EVENING UNDER
A COMPACT CLOSED LOW FCST TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES FROM CENTRAL WI.

CAA REGIME IN DEEPENING NNW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE/CDFNT SHOULD ENSURE DRY/MUCH COOLER WEATHER LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

SOME CONVOLUTED SUGGESTION IN SOME MED RANGE GUIDANCE OF TERTIARY
DISTURBANCES WRAPPING THROUGH THE BASE OF MID LVL THROUGH CNTRD
THROUGH THE ERN LAKES...PARTICULARLY THE OP GFS DEPICTION ON TUE/
WED. HWVR IT STANDS ALONE IN DROPPING A SW DISTURBANCE WELL SWD OF
ANY OTHER GUIDANCE. AS SUCH WILL HOLD W/DRY WX THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SECONDARY SFC TROUGH HAS CLEARED TERMINALS AT 00Z...AND POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED FOR THE
EVENING. AN AREA OF MODERATE STRONG PRESSURE RISES OF 3-4 MB/3 HR
IS WORKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND WILL PROVIDE BRIEF
ENHANCEMENT TO STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH 01Z OR 02Z. COLD
AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND PARENT SYSTEM
WILL YIELD POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHWEST GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS ON MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 271905
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
DROP INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS POTENTIALLY CONTAINING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT ON LEADING EDGE OF COLD POCKET ALOFT EDGES
EAST OVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. SVR WATCH 446 HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FA WITH CONVECTIVE LINE ALREADY INTO NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI AS OF 1830Z GIVEN MLCAPE EROSION WITH TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES. RESULTING
SBCAPE RESERVOIR NEAR 3000 J/KG AMID 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FAVORS ORGANIZATION AND THIS HAIL/WIND THREAT. THE TORNADO
RISK REMAINS LOW GIVEN MEAGER 0-1 KM HELICITY/SHEAR VALUES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER TO LINGER
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO THIS EVENING UNDER
A COMPACT CLOSED LOW FCST TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES FROM CENTRAL WI.

CAA REGIME IN DEEPENING NNW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE/CDFNT SHOULD ENSURE DRY/MUCH COOLER WEATHER LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

SOME CONVOLUTED SUGGESTION IN SOME MED RANGE GUIDANCE OF TERTIARY
DISTURBANCES WRAPPING THROUGH THE BASE OF MID LVL THROUGH CNTRD
THROUGH THE ERN LAKES...PARTICULARLY THE OP GFS DEPICTION ON TUE/
WED. HWVR IT STANDS ALONE IN DROPPING A SW DISTURBANCE WELL SWD OF
ANY OTHER GUIDANCE. AS SUCH WILL HOLD W/DRY WX THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AT FWA ALONG LEFTOVER CONVERGENT MOISTURE
BOUNDARY SHOULD MIX OUT TO A HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCU DECK
SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. SBN ALREADY WELL MIXED IN ADVANCE OF
IMPRESSIVE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON
LEADING EDGE OF COLD POCKET ALOFT WITH TEMPO TSRA TIMING BASED
LARGELY ON LAST FEW HRRR ITERATIONS. STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL/STRONG GUSTS...BETTER CHANCES AT FWA. A PERIOD OF
MAINLY VFR/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS IN CAA/WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
REGIME SINK IN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 271905
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
DROP INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS POTENTIALLY CONTAINING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT ON LEADING EDGE OF COLD POCKET ALOFT EDGES
EAST OVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. SVR WATCH 446 HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FA WITH CONVECTIVE LINE ALREADY INTO NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI AS OF 1830Z GIVEN MLCAPE EROSION WITH TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES. RESULTING
SBCAPE RESERVOIR NEAR 3000 J/KG AMID 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FAVORS ORGANIZATION AND THIS HAIL/WIND THREAT. THE TORNADO
RISK REMAINS LOW GIVEN MEAGER 0-1 KM HELICITY/SHEAR VALUES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER TO LINGER
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO THIS EVENING UNDER
A COMPACT CLOSED LOW FCST TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES FROM CENTRAL WI.

CAA REGIME IN DEEPENING NNW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE/CDFNT SHOULD ENSURE DRY/MUCH COOLER WEATHER LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

SOME CONVOLUTED SUGGESTION IN SOME MED RANGE GUIDANCE OF TERTIARY
DISTURBANCES WRAPPING THROUGH THE BASE OF MID LVL THROUGH CNTRD
THROUGH THE ERN LAKES...PARTICULARLY THE OP GFS DEPICTION ON TUE/
WED. HWVR IT STANDS ALONE IN DROPPING A SW DISTURBANCE WELL SWD OF
ANY OTHER GUIDANCE. AS SUCH WILL HOLD W/DRY WX THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AT FWA ALONG LEFTOVER CONVERGENT MOISTURE
BOUNDARY SHOULD MIX OUT TO A HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCU DECK
SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. SBN ALREADY WELL MIXED IN ADVANCE OF
IMPRESSIVE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON
LEADING EDGE OF COLD POCKET ALOFT WITH TEMPO TSRA TIMING BASED
LARGELY ON LAST FEW HRRR ITERATIONS. STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL/STRONG GUSTS...BETTER CHANCES AT FWA. A PERIOD OF
MAINLY VFR/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS IN CAA/WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
REGIME SINK IN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 271657
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1257 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA THERE IS AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

RAISED POPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF HWY 24 IN
IN/OH PER RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AS SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER BEGINNING
TO GROW IN COVERAGE ALONG REMNANT CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. A LOW END
THREAT FOR SVR HAIL EXISTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AS
LEADING EDGE OF SIG HEIGHT FALLS/COLD POOL ALOFT OVERSPREADS MOIST
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE. LOW STRATUS DECK LINGERING OVER THE
AREA APPEARS RATHER THIN AND MAY SCATTER OUT ENOUGH TO ERODE MORE
SIGNIFICANT MLCIN IN PLACE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR CONDITIONS WOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP
AND GROW UPSCALE ESE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BTW 19-23Z.
MODERATE INSTABILITY (STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN) AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR (50 KTS...HIGH CONFIDENCE) DEFINITELY SUGGEST A SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THREAT AND POSSIBLY A LOW TORNADO THREAT IF ANY
BOWING/ORGANIZATION OCCURS. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OPTED TO
ADD A SEVERE MENTION TO THE GRIDS AND BUMP POPS INTO LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE GRIDS/HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DIFFICULTY CENTERED UPON CONVECTION POTENTIAL TODAY. LARGE CONGEALED
COLD POOL PUSH SEWD FROM SAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACRS NERN IN/NWRN
OH FOLLOWED BY WAKE OF MID MS VLY TO LWR OH VLY COMPLEX...HAS LEFT
CWA AMID STRONG MLCIN ON ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG. CONVECTION FIRING
ALONG WEAKNESS IN EML THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN HIGHLY
CONVERGENT 925-8H MB FLOW OWING TO WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVR WCNTL IL
AND RAMPING WSWLY LLVL JETLET TO 40-45 KTS ALONG MISSOURI I70
CORRIDOR. PRIMARY CLUSTER TO TRACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...THOUGH
WEAKER CONVECTION FARTHER NORTH/VCNTY KPNT MAY CLIP FAR SWRN/SRN CWA
LATER THIS AM. RAMPING CONVECTIVE CHCS BY LATE MORNING WITH APPROACH
OF SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DROP SEWD ASSOCD WITH INTENSE MID
TROPOSPHERIC VORTEX OVR NRN MN MOVING TO NEAR SAGINAW BAY BY 00 UTC
MON. HIGH NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT POOLED THROUGHOUT HIGHLY
EFFICIENT EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE CORN BELT LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATUS/BR PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS AM. CONCERN THAT LESS
THAN STELLAR MORNING INSOLATION TO LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY ACROSS
PREFRONTAL REGION. STILL BY MIDDAY MODIFIED NAM12 SOUNDINGS OF NEAR
80/LWR 70S SUPPORT NEAR 3000 J/KG SBCAPE. LEADING EDGE OF
SIGNIFICANT 60-80M/12 HR HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH STRONG KINEMATIC
PROFILE WITH SLIGHT VEERING /DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ON ORDER OF
40-50KTS/ COULD PROMOTE UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH IN PREFRONTAL ZONE
MIDDAY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN NW THROUGH SE FASHION. PRESENCE
OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ALONG WITH MDPI AROUND 1.1/WINDEX GTE 50KTS
SUGGEST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. FAVORABLE WETBULB ZERO
HEIGHTS NEAR 11.5 KFT WOULD ALSO SUPPORT HAIL PRODUCTION SHOULD
HIGHER END CAPE VALUES BE REALIZED. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE INTRICACIES...WILL
RELEGATE MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL TO HWO. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY
A FEW DEGREES/CLOSER TO 3 HOURLY TEMPS NUDGED TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY FOR FIRST FEW
DAYS BEFORE EDGING SLOWLY NE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL
BLEND WITH SHORT TERM FOR START OF PERIOD WITH REMOVAL OF SLGT CHC
POPS FAR EAST AS SYSTEM AND DEEPEST MSTR WILL BE GONE BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD. GENERAL NW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS RUNNING 10 DEGREES OR
SO BELOW NORMAL BUT STILL PLEASANT FOR THE END OF JULY.  MODELS DO
ALL AGREE ON A WEAK (578 DM) UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MATERIALIZE
STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDS/WEDS NGT BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY HOPE FOR INCREASE OCCURRING FROM
PACIFIC FLOW THAT MAY RIDE OVER TOP THE RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
500 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE MID NEGATIVE TEENS BUT SHIFT NE OF THE
AREA AS ANY MOISTURE ARRIVES. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS AND QUESTION AS
TO TIMING AND EXACT DYNAMICS WITH EACH WAVE TOUGH TO MUDDLE FORECAST
WITH A BUNCH OF SLGT CHC OR BORDERLINE CHC POPS. 00Z MEN NUMBERS
ALSO COMING IN GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO...GIVING MORE CREDENCE TO DRY
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AT FWA ALONG LEFTOVER CONVERGENT MOISTURE
BOUNDARY SHOULD MIX OUT TO A HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCU DECK
SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. SBN ALREADY WELL MIXED IN ADVANCE OF
IMPRESSIVE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON
LEADING EDGE OF COLD POCKET ALOFT WITH TEMPO TSRA TIMING BASED
LARGELY ON LAST FEW HRRR ITERATIONS. STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL/STRONG GUSTS...BETTER CHANCES AT FWA. A PERIOD OF
MAINLY VFR/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS IN CAA/WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
REGIME SINK IN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG 3-6MB/6 HOUR POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES TO DROP SWD FROM
NRN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO RAMPING NWRLY FLOW WITH GUSTS PEAKING AT OR JUST BELOW
GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHERLY ON
MONDAY...YIELDING LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
AND VERY HIGH RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW BEGINS TO RELAX.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
MARINE...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 271657
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1257 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA THERE IS AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

RAISED POPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF HWY 24 IN
IN/OH PER RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AS SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER BEGINNING
TO GROW IN COVERAGE ALONG REMNANT CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. A LOW END
THREAT FOR SVR HAIL EXISTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AS
LEADING EDGE OF SIG HEIGHT FALLS/COLD POOL ALOFT OVERSPREADS MOIST
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE. LOW STRATUS DECK LINGERING OVER THE
AREA APPEARS RATHER THIN AND MAY SCATTER OUT ENOUGH TO ERODE MORE
SIGNIFICANT MLCIN IN PLACE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR CONDITIONS WOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP
AND GROW UPSCALE ESE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BTW 19-23Z.
MODERATE INSTABILITY (STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN) AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR (50 KTS...HIGH CONFIDENCE) DEFINITELY SUGGEST A SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THREAT AND POSSIBLY A LOW TORNADO THREAT IF ANY
BOWING/ORGANIZATION OCCURS. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OPTED TO
ADD A SEVERE MENTION TO THE GRIDS AND BUMP POPS INTO LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE GRIDS/HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DIFFICULTY CENTERED UPON CONVECTION POTENTIAL TODAY. LARGE CONGEALED
COLD POOL PUSH SEWD FROM SAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACRS NERN IN/NWRN
OH FOLLOWED BY WAKE OF MID MS VLY TO LWR OH VLY COMPLEX...HAS LEFT
CWA AMID STRONG MLCIN ON ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG. CONVECTION FIRING
ALONG WEAKNESS IN EML THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN HIGHLY
CONVERGENT 925-8H MB FLOW OWING TO WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVR WCNTL IL
AND RAMPING WSWLY LLVL JETLET TO 40-45 KTS ALONG MISSOURI I70
CORRIDOR. PRIMARY CLUSTER TO TRACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...THOUGH
WEAKER CONVECTION FARTHER NORTH/VCNTY KPNT MAY CLIP FAR SWRN/SRN CWA
LATER THIS AM. RAMPING CONVECTIVE CHCS BY LATE MORNING WITH APPROACH
OF SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DROP SEWD ASSOCD WITH INTENSE MID
TROPOSPHERIC VORTEX OVR NRN MN MOVING TO NEAR SAGINAW BAY BY 00 UTC
MON. HIGH NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT POOLED THROUGHOUT HIGHLY
EFFICIENT EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE CORN BELT LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATUS/BR PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS AM. CONCERN THAT LESS
THAN STELLAR MORNING INSOLATION TO LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY ACROSS
PREFRONTAL REGION. STILL BY MIDDAY MODIFIED NAM12 SOUNDINGS OF NEAR
80/LWR 70S SUPPORT NEAR 3000 J/KG SBCAPE. LEADING EDGE OF
SIGNIFICANT 60-80M/12 HR HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH STRONG KINEMATIC
PROFILE WITH SLIGHT VEERING /DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ON ORDER OF
40-50KTS/ COULD PROMOTE UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH IN PREFRONTAL ZONE
MIDDAY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN NW THROUGH SE FASHION. PRESENCE
OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ALONG WITH MDPI AROUND 1.1/WINDEX GTE 50KTS
SUGGEST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. FAVORABLE WETBULB ZERO
HEIGHTS NEAR 11.5 KFT WOULD ALSO SUPPORT HAIL PRODUCTION SHOULD
HIGHER END CAPE VALUES BE REALIZED. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE INTRICACIES...WILL
RELEGATE MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL TO HWO. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY
A FEW DEGREES/CLOSER TO 3 HOURLY TEMPS NUDGED TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY FOR FIRST FEW
DAYS BEFORE EDGING SLOWLY NE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL
BLEND WITH SHORT TERM FOR START OF PERIOD WITH REMOVAL OF SLGT CHC
POPS FAR EAST AS SYSTEM AND DEEPEST MSTR WILL BE GONE BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD. GENERAL NW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS RUNNING 10 DEGREES OR
SO BELOW NORMAL BUT STILL PLEASANT FOR THE END OF JULY.  MODELS DO
ALL AGREE ON A WEAK (578 DM) UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MATERIALIZE
STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDS/WEDS NGT BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY HOPE FOR INCREASE OCCURRING FROM
PACIFIC FLOW THAT MAY RIDE OVER TOP THE RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
500 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE MID NEGATIVE TEENS BUT SHIFT NE OF THE
AREA AS ANY MOISTURE ARRIVES. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS AND QUESTION AS
TO TIMING AND EXACT DYNAMICS WITH EACH WAVE TOUGH TO MUDDLE FORECAST
WITH A BUNCH OF SLGT CHC OR BORDERLINE CHC POPS. 00Z MEN NUMBERS
ALSO COMING IN GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO...GIVING MORE CREDENCE TO DRY
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AT FWA ALONG LEFTOVER CONVERGENT MOISTURE
BOUNDARY SHOULD MIX OUT TO A HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCU DECK
SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. SBN ALREADY WELL MIXED IN ADVANCE OF
IMPRESSIVE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON
LEADING EDGE OF COLD POCKET ALOFT WITH TEMPO TSRA TIMING BASED
LARGELY ON LAST FEW HRRR ITERATIONS. STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL/STRONG GUSTS...BETTER CHANCES AT FWA. A PERIOD OF
MAINLY VFR/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS IN CAA/WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
REGIME SINK IN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG 3-6MB/6 HOUR POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES TO DROP SWD FROM
NRN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO RAMPING NWRLY FLOW WITH GUSTS PEAKING AT OR JUST BELOW
GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHERLY ON
MONDAY...YIELDING LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
AND VERY HIGH RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW BEGINS TO RELAX.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
MARINE...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 271424
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1024 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA THERE IS AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

RAISED POPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF HWY 24 IN
IN/OH PER RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AS SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER BEGINNING
TO GROW IN COVERAGE ALONG REMNANT CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. A LOW END
THREAT FOR SVR HAIL EXISTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AS
LEADING EDGE OF SIG HEIGHT FALLS/COLD POOL ALOFT OVERSPREADS MOIST
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE. LOW STRATUS DECK LINGERING OVER THE
AREA APPEARS RATHER THIN AND MAY SCATTER OUT ENOUGH TO ERODE MORE
SIGNIFICANT MLCIN IN PLACE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR CONDITIONS WOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP
AND GROW UPSCALE ESE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BTW 19-23Z.
MODERATE INSTABILITY (STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN) AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR (50 KTS...HIGH CONFIDENCE) DEFINITELY SUGGEST A SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THREAT AND POSSIBLY A LOW TORNADO THREAT IF ANY
BOWING/ORGANIZATION OCCURS. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OPTED TO
ADD A SEVERE MENTION TO THE GRIDS AND BUMP POPS INTO LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE GRIDS/HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DIFFICULTY CENTERED UPON CONVECTION POTENTIAL TODAY. LARGE CONGEALED
COLD POOL PUSH SEWD FROM SAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACRS NERN IN/NWRN
OH FOLLOWED BY WAKE OF MID MS VLY TO LWR OH VLY COMPLEX...HAS LEFT
CWA AMID STRONG MLCIN ON ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG. CONVECTION FIRING
ALONG WEAKNESS IN EML THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN HIGHLY
CONVERGENT 925-8H MB FLOW OWING TO WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVR WCNTL IL
AND RAMPING WSWLY LLVL JETLET TO 40-45 KTS ALONG MISSOURI I70
CORRIDOR. PRIMARY CLUSTER TO TRACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...THOUGH
WEAKER CONVECTION FARTHER NORTH/VCNTY KPNT MAY CLIP FAR SWRN/SRN CWA
LATER THIS AM. RAMPING CONVECTIVE CHCS BY LATE MORNING WITH APPROACH
OF SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DROP SEWD ASSOCD WITH INTENSE MID
TROPOSPHERIC VORTEX OVR NRN MN MOVING TO NEAR SAGINAW BAY BY 00 UTC
MON. HIGH NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT POOLED THROUGHOUT HIGHLY
EFFICIENT EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE CORN BELT LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATUS/BR PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS AM. CONCERN THAT LESS
THAN STELLAR MORNING INSOLATION TO LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY ACROSS
PREFRONTAL REGION. STILL BY MIDDAY MODIFIED NAM12 SOUNDINGS OF NEAR
80/LWR 70S SUPPORT NEAR 3000 J/KG SBCAPE. LEADING EDGE OF
SIGNIFICANT 60-80M/12 HR HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH STRONG KINEMATIC
PROFILE WITH SLIGHT VEERING /DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ON ORDER OF
40-50KTS/ COULD PROMOTE UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH IN PREFRONTAL ZONE
MIDDAY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN NW THROUGH SE FASHION. PRESENCE
OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ALONG WITH MDPI AROUND 1.1/WINDEX GTE 50KTS
SUGGEST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. FAVORABLE WETBULB ZERO
HEIGHTS NEAR 11.5 KFT WOULD ALSO SUPPORT HAIL PRODUCTION SHOULD
HIGHER END CAPE VALUES BE REALIZED. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE INTRICACIES...WILL
RELEGATE MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL TO HWO. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY
A FEW DEGREES/CLOSER TO 3 HOURLY TEMPS NUDGED TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY FOR FIRST FEW
DAYS BEFORE EDGING SLOWLY NE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL
BLEND WITH SHORT TERM FOR START OF PERIOD WITH REMOVAL OF SLGT CHC
POPS FAR EAST AS SYSTEM AND DEEPEST MSTR WILL BE GONE BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD. GENERAL NW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS RUNNING 10 DEGREES OR
SO BELOW NORMAL BUT STILL PLEASANT FOR THE END OF JULY.  MODELS DO
ALL AGREE ON A WEAK (578 DM) UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MATERIALIZE
STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDS/WEDS NGT BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY HOPE FOR INCREASE OCCURRING FROM
PACIFIC FLOW THAT MAY RIDE OVER TOP THE RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
500 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE MID NEGATIVE TEENS BUT SHIFT NE OF THE
AREA AS ANY MOISTURE ARRIVES. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS AND QUESTION AS
TO TIMING AND EXACT DYNAMICS WITH EACH WAVE TOUGH TO MUDDLE FORECAST
WITH A BUNCH OF SLGT CHC OR BORDERLINE CHC POPS. 00Z MEN NUMBERS
ALSO COMING IN GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO...GIVING MORE CREDENCE TO DRY
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TRANSIENT BR/FG WITHIN STABLE/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA TO RESULT IN AT LEAST TEMPO FUEL ALT CONDITIONS THIS AM.
TIMING OF CONVECTION UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS VORTEX
ACROSS NORTHERN MN WARRANTS AT MINIMUM VCTS MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON. LATER FORECAST ITERATIONS TO FURTHER ASSESS
TIMING/PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE FOR POSSIBLE TEMPO INCLUSION.
LATE DAY FROPA TO AFFORD MOIST/WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUN
NIGHT...FOR AT LEAST LIGHT BR AND MORE LIKELY LOW STRATUS DECK
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG 3-6MB/6 HOUR POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES TO DROP SWD FROM
NRN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO RAMPING NWRLY FLOW WITH GUSTS PEAKING AT OR JUST BELOW
GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHERLY ON
MONDAY...YIELDING LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
AND VERY HIGH RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW BEGINS TO RELAX.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MURPHY
MARINE...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 270838
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
438 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA THERE IS AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DIFFICULTY CENTERED UPON CONVECTION POTENTIAL TODAY. LARGE CONGEALED
COLD POOL PUSH SEWD FROM SAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACRS NERN IN/NWRN
OH FOLLOWED BY WAKE OF MID MS VLY TO LWR OH VLY COMPLEX...HAS LEFT
CWA AMID STRONG MLCIN ON ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG. CONVECTION FIRING
ALONG WEAKNESS IN EML THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN HIGHLY
CONVERGENT 925-8H MB FLOW OWING TO WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVR WCNTL IL
AND RAMPING WSWLY LLVL JETLET TO 40-45 KTS ALONG MISSOURI I70
CORRIDOR. PRIMARY CLUSTER TO TRACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...THOUGH
WEAKER CONVECTION FARTHER NORTH/VCNTY KPNT MAY CLIP FAR SWRN/SRN CWA
LATER THIS AM. RAMPING CONVECTIVE CHCS BY LATE MORNING WITH APPROACH
OF SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DROP SEWD ASSOCD WITH INTENSE MID
TROPOSPHERIC VORTEX OVR NRN MN MOVING TO NEAR SAGINAW BAY BY 00 UTC
MON. HIGH NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT POOLED THROUGHOUT HIGHLY
EFFICIENT EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE CORN BELT LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATUS/BR PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS AM. CONCERN THAT LESS
THAN STELLAR MORNING INSOLATION TO LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY ACROSS
PREFRONTAL REGION. STILL BY MIDDAY MODIFIED NAM12 SOUNDINGS OF NEAR
80/LWR 70S SUPPORT NEAR 3000 J/KG SBCAPE. LEADING EDGE OF
SIGNIFICANT 60-80M/12 HR HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH STRONG KINEMATIC
PROFILE WITH SLIGHT VEERING /DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ON ORDER OF
40-50KTS/ COULD PROMOTE UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH IN PREFRONTAL ZONE
MIDDAY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN NW THROUGH SE FASHION. PRESENCE
OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ALONG WITH MDPI AROUND 1.1/WINDEX GTE 50KTS
SUGGEST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. FAVORABLE WETBULB ZERO
HEIGHTS NEAR 11.5 KFT WOULD ALSO SUPPORT HAIL PRODUCTION SHOULD
HIGHER END CAPE VALUES BE REALIZED. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE INTRICACIES...WILL
RELEGATE MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL TO HWO. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY
A FEW DEGREES/CLOSER TO 3 HOURLY TEMPS NUDGED TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY FOR FIRST FEW
DAYS BEFORE EDGING SLOWLY NE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL
BLEND WITH SHORT TERM FOR START OF PERIOD WITH REMOVAL OF SLGT CHC
POPS FAR EAST AS SYSTEM AND DEEPEST MSTR WILL BE GONE BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD. GENERAL NW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS RUNNING 10 DEGREES OR
SO BELOW NORMAL BUT STILL PLEASANT FOR THE END OF JULY.  MODELS DO
ALL AGREE ON A WEAK (578 DM) UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MATERIALIZE
STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDS/WEDS NGT BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY HOPE FOR INCREASE OCCURRING FROM
PACIFIC FLOW THAT MAY RIDE OVER TOP THE RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
500 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE MID NEGATIVE TEENS BUT SHIFT NE OF THE
AREA AS ANY MOISTURE ARRIVES. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS AND QUESTION AS
TO TIMING AND EXACT DYNAMICS WITH EACH WAVE TOUGH TO MUDDLE FORECAST
WITH A BUNCH OF SLGT CHC OR BORDERLINE CHC POPS. 00Z MEN NUMBERS
ALSO COMING IN GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO...GIVING MORE CREDENCE TO DRY
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TRANSIENT BR/FG WITHIN STABLE/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA TO RESULT IN AT LEAST TEMPO FUEL ALT CONDITIONS THIS AM.
TIMING OF CONVECTION UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS VORTEX
ACROSS NORTHERN MN WARRANTS AT MINIMUM VCTS MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON. LATER FORECAST ITERATIONS TO FURTHER ASSESS
TIMING/PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE FOR POSSIBLE TEMPO INCLUSION.
LATE DAY FROPA TO AFFORD MOIST/WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUN
NIGHT...FOR AT LEAST LIGHT BR AND MORE LIKELY LOW STRATUS DECK
DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG 3-6MB/6 HOUR POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES TO DROP SWD FROM
NRN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO RAMPING NWRLY FLOW WITH GUSTS PEAKING AT OR JUST BELOW
GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHERLY ON
MONDAY...YIELDING LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
AND VERY HIGH RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW BEGINS TO RELAX.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MURPHY
MARINE...MURPHY


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 270838
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
438 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA THERE IS AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DIFFICULTY CENTERED UPON CONVECTION POTENTIAL TODAY. LARGE CONGEALED
COLD POOL PUSH SEWD FROM SAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACRS NERN IN/NWRN
OH FOLLOWED BY WAKE OF MID MS VLY TO LWR OH VLY COMPLEX...HAS LEFT
CWA AMID STRONG MLCIN ON ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG. CONVECTION FIRING
ALONG WEAKNESS IN EML THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN HIGHLY
CONVERGENT 925-8H MB FLOW OWING TO WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVR WCNTL IL
AND RAMPING WSWLY LLVL JETLET TO 40-45 KTS ALONG MISSOURI I70
CORRIDOR. PRIMARY CLUSTER TO TRACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...THOUGH
WEAKER CONVECTION FARTHER NORTH/VCNTY KPNT MAY CLIP FAR SWRN/SRN CWA
LATER THIS AM. RAMPING CONVECTIVE CHCS BY LATE MORNING WITH APPROACH
OF SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DROP SEWD ASSOCD WITH INTENSE MID
TROPOSPHERIC VORTEX OVR NRN MN MOVING TO NEAR SAGINAW BAY BY 00 UTC
MON. HIGH NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT POOLED THROUGHOUT HIGHLY
EFFICIENT EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE CORN BELT LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATUS/BR PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS AM. CONCERN THAT LESS
THAN STELLAR MORNING INSOLATION TO LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY ACROSS
PREFRONTAL REGION. STILL BY MIDDAY MODIFIED NAM12 SOUNDINGS OF NEAR
80/LWR 70S SUPPORT NEAR 3000 J/KG SBCAPE. LEADING EDGE OF
SIGNIFICANT 60-80M/12 HR HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH STRONG KINEMATIC
PROFILE WITH SLIGHT VEERING /DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ON ORDER OF
40-50KTS/ COULD PROMOTE UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH IN PREFRONTAL ZONE
MIDDAY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN NW THROUGH SE FASHION. PRESENCE
OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ALONG WITH MDPI AROUND 1.1/WINDEX GTE 50KTS
SUGGEST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. FAVORABLE WETBULB ZERO
HEIGHTS NEAR 11.5 KFT WOULD ALSO SUPPORT HAIL PRODUCTION SHOULD
HIGHER END CAPE VALUES BE REALIZED. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE INTRICACIES...WILL
RELEGATE MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL TO HWO. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY
A FEW DEGREES/CLOSER TO 3 HOURLY TEMPS NUDGED TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY FOR FIRST FEW
DAYS BEFORE EDGING SLOWLY NE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL
BLEND WITH SHORT TERM FOR START OF PERIOD WITH REMOVAL OF SLGT CHC
POPS FAR EAST AS SYSTEM AND DEEPEST MSTR WILL BE GONE BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD. GENERAL NW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS RUNNING 10 DEGREES OR
SO BELOW NORMAL BUT STILL PLEASANT FOR THE END OF JULY.  MODELS DO
ALL AGREE ON A WEAK (578 DM) UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MATERIALIZE
STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDS/WEDS NGT BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY HOPE FOR INCREASE OCCURRING FROM
PACIFIC FLOW THAT MAY RIDE OVER TOP THE RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
500 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE MID NEGATIVE TEENS BUT SHIFT NE OF THE
AREA AS ANY MOISTURE ARRIVES. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS AND QUESTION AS
TO TIMING AND EXACT DYNAMICS WITH EACH WAVE TOUGH TO MUDDLE FORECAST
WITH A BUNCH OF SLGT CHC OR BORDERLINE CHC POPS. 00Z MEN NUMBERS
ALSO COMING IN GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO...GIVING MORE CREDENCE TO DRY
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TRANSIENT BR/FG WITHIN STABLE/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA TO RESULT IN AT LEAST TEMPO FUEL ALT CONDITIONS THIS AM.
TIMING OF CONVECTION UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS VORTEX
ACROSS NORTHERN MN WARRANTS AT MINIMUM VCTS MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON. LATER FORECAST ITERATIONS TO FURTHER ASSESS
TIMING/PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE FOR POSSIBLE TEMPO INCLUSION.
LATE DAY FROPA TO AFFORD MOIST/WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUN
NIGHT...FOR AT LEAST LIGHT BR AND MORE LIKELY LOW STRATUS DECK
DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG 3-6MB/6 HOUR POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES TO DROP SWD FROM
NRN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO RAMPING NWRLY FLOW WITH GUSTS PEAKING AT OR JUST BELOW
GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHERLY ON
MONDAY...YIELDING LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
AND VERY HIGH RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW BEGINS TO RELAX.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MURPHY
MARINE...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









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