Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KIWX 252349
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
649 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

PARTIAL CLEARING IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS ILLINOIS. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB TO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATING TO INCREASE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING AS
DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD HELP TRAP LOW CLOUDS BENEATH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT... WITH LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DVLPG
WED PRBLY ADVECTING SAME CLOUD DECK BACK TO THE WEST. CURRENT
TEMPS ABOUT 5F ABOVE FCST MINS AND LEFT IN TACT AS ANY BREAKS
COULD ALLOW FOR THAT MUCH OF A FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER...FLOW SHIFTS MORE SW AND MOISTURE
DIMINISHES FURTHER. SHARE CONCERNS OF PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR INVERSION TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MSTR AND ALLOWING FOR
SLOW DEMISE OR EVEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS IF SKIES DO
MANAGE TO CLEAR SOME. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DOWNWARD TREND INTO
THIS EVENING. AND THEN SLOWLY INCREASE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL
YIELD A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY DAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OUT OF
THE PLAINS INTO NE MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM THE AREA WARRANTING REMOVAL
OF ANY POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A HAIR TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING IN THE EVENING. WEAK SE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIR TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS MAKING A RUN FOR FREEZING
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LONG WAVE PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES HELPING CREATE A ROLLER COASTER
PATTERN WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO
SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC TYPE SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM BUT
SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING.

FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND THUS HAVE REMOVED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WAS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY SOME
FLURRIES POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHERLY AS
THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION. DELTA T VALUES CLIMB INTO MID AND UPPER TEENS THROUGH THE
DAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MICHIGAN COUNTIES AND NW
INDIANA NEAR THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS SOUTH
IN AFTERNOON AND PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD AID IN A BRIEF
WINDOW OF DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE MID
EVENING HOURS. DURING THIS PERIOD...DELTA T VALUES RISE INTO THE 20S
BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT GREAT IN THE 5-7KFT RANGE. SATURATED LAYER
DOES EXTEND TO AROUND 5 OR 6KFT WITH PARTIALLY SATURATED DGZ AND
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW GOOD
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT AND SOME ACCUMS. EXPECTED AMOUNTS CURRENTLY
LOOK TO BE IN THE GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. DURATION SHOULD BE
SHORT AND DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z AS FLOW QUICKLY BACKS TO SOUTHWEST
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.

THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BRING AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH WHERE DEEPER
SATURATION LOOKS MOST LIKELY. MODELS VARY ON AMOUNT OF SATURATION
BUT HAVE KEPT A LOW POP GOING FOR CONSISTENCY AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.
ANOTHER DECENT WARMUP WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THIS
REALLY JUST GETS TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT
WILL FEEL WARM GIVEN RECENT PATTERN. BEYOND THE WEEKEND UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN ZONAL FLOW DICTATING BOUNDARY LOCATION AND HOW FAR WE GET
INTO THE COLD SECTOR AND FOR HOW LONG. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SYSTEMS CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD BUT SEVERAL WEAKER
SHORT WAVES LIKELY KEEPING CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WITH A FEW LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN TO SMALL TO MENTION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

HIGH  PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THIS EVE WILL ALLOW LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS TO BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF STRATUS
DECK CURRENTLY ALONG WK RIDGE AXIS OVER IL BUT HAVE DOUBTS IT
WILL MAKE MUCH EASTWARD HEADWAY OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE WEAKENS. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AS A WK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPS SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS
BACK TO THE WEST SO FCST MVFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 252349
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
649 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

PARTIAL CLEARING IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS ILLINOIS. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB TO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATING TO INCREASE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING AS
DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD HELP TRAP LOW CLOUDS BENEATH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT... WITH LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DVLPG
WED PRBLY ADVECTING SAME CLOUD DECK BACK TO THE WEST. CURRENT
TEMPS ABOUT 5F ABOVE FCST MINS AND LEFT IN TACT AS ANY BREAKS
COULD ALLOW FOR THAT MUCH OF A FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER...FLOW SHIFTS MORE SW AND MOISTURE
DIMINISHES FURTHER. SHARE CONCERNS OF PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR INVERSION TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MSTR AND ALLOWING FOR
SLOW DEMISE OR EVEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS IF SKIES DO
MANAGE TO CLEAR SOME. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DOWNWARD TREND INTO
THIS EVENING. AND THEN SLOWLY INCREASE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL
YIELD A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY DAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OUT OF
THE PLAINS INTO NE MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM THE AREA WARRANTING REMOVAL
OF ANY POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A HAIR TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING IN THE EVENING. WEAK SE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIR TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS MAKING A RUN FOR FREEZING
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LONG WAVE PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES HELPING CREATE A ROLLER COASTER
PATTERN WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO
SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC TYPE SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM BUT
SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING.

FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND THUS HAVE REMOVED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WAS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY SOME
FLURRIES POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHERLY AS
THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION. DELTA T VALUES CLIMB INTO MID AND UPPER TEENS THROUGH THE
DAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MICHIGAN COUNTIES AND NW
INDIANA NEAR THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS SOUTH
IN AFTERNOON AND PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD AID IN A BRIEF
WINDOW OF DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE MID
EVENING HOURS. DURING THIS PERIOD...DELTA T VALUES RISE INTO THE 20S
BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT GREAT IN THE 5-7KFT RANGE. SATURATED LAYER
DOES EXTEND TO AROUND 5 OR 6KFT WITH PARTIALLY SATURATED DGZ AND
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW GOOD
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT AND SOME ACCUMS. EXPECTED AMOUNTS CURRENTLY
LOOK TO BE IN THE GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. DURATION SHOULD BE
SHORT AND DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z AS FLOW QUICKLY BACKS TO SOUTHWEST
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.

THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BRING AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH WHERE DEEPER
SATURATION LOOKS MOST LIKELY. MODELS VARY ON AMOUNT OF SATURATION
BUT HAVE KEPT A LOW POP GOING FOR CONSISTENCY AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.
ANOTHER DECENT WARMUP WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THIS
REALLY JUST GETS TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT
WILL FEEL WARM GIVEN RECENT PATTERN. BEYOND THE WEEKEND UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN ZONAL FLOW DICTATING BOUNDARY LOCATION AND HOW FAR WE GET
INTO THE COLD SECTOR AND FOR HOW LONG. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SYSTEMS CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD BUT SEVERAL WEAKER
SHORT WAVES LIKELY KEEPING CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WITH A FEW LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN TO SMALL TO MENTION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

HIGH  PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THIS EVE WILL ALLOW LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS TO BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF STRATUS
DECK CURRENTLY ALONG WK RIDGE AXIS OVER IL BUT HAVE DOUBTS IT
WILL MAKE MUCH EASTWARD HEADWAY OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE WEAKENS. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AS A WK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPS SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS
BACK TO THE WEST SO FCST MVFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 252017
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
317 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

PARTIAL CLEARING IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS ILLINOIS. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB TO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER...FLOW SHIFTS MORE SW AND MOISTURE
DIMINISHES FURTHER. SHARE CONCERNS OF PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR INVERSION TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MSTR AND ALLOWING FOR
SLOW DEMISE OR EVEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS IF SKIES DO
MANAGE TO CLEAR SOME. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DOWNWARD TREND INTO
THIS EVENING. AND THEN SLOWLY INCREASE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL
YIELD A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY DAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OUT OF
THE PLAINS INTO NE MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM THE AREA WARRANTING REMOVAL
OF ANY POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A HAIR TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING IN THE EVENING. WEAK SE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIR TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS MAKING A RUN FOR FREEZING
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LONG WAVE PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES HELPING CREATE A ROLLER COASTER
PATTERN WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO
SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC TYPE SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM BUT
SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING.

FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND THUS HAVE REMOVED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WAS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY SOME
FLURRIES POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHERLY AS
THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION. DELTA T VALUES CLIMB INTO MID AND UPPER TEENS THROUGH THE
DAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MICHIGAN COUNTIES AND NW
INDIANA NEAR THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS SOUTH
IN AFTERNOON AND PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD AID IN A BRIEF
WINDOW OF DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE MID
EVENING HOURS. DURING THIS PERIOD...DELTA T VALUES RISE INTO THE 20S
BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT GREAT IN THE 5-7KFT RANGE. SATURATED LAYER
DOES EXTEND TO AROUND 5 OR 6KFT WITH PARTIALLY SATURATED DGZ AND
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW GOOD
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT AND SOME ACCUMS. EXPECTED AMOUNTS CURRENTLY
LOOK TO BE IN THE GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. DURATION SHOULD BE
SHORT AND DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z AS FLOW QUICKLY BACKS TO SOUTHWEST
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.

THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BRING AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH WHERE DEEPER
SATURATION LOOKS MOST LIKELY. MODELS VARY ON AMOUNT OF SATURATION
BUT HAVE KEPT A LOW POP GOING FOR CONSISTENCY AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.
ANOTHER DECENT WARMUP WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THIS
REALLY JUST GETS TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT
WILL FEEL WARM GIVEN RECENT PATTERN. BEYOND THE WEEKEND UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN ZONAL FLOW DICTATING BOUNDARY LOCATION AND HOW FAR WE GET
INTO THE COLD SECTOR AND FOR HOW LONG. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SYSTEMS CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD BUT SEVERAL WEAKER
SHORT WAVES LIKELY KEEPING CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WITH A FEW LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN TO SMALL TO MENTION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO DEPART THE AREA. CONDITIONS STILL
LOOK TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REACH VFR
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 252017
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
317 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

PARTIAL CLEARING IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS ILLINOIS. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB TO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER...FLOW SHIFTS MORE SW AND MOISTURE
DIMINISHES FURTHER. SHARE CONCERNS OF PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR INVERSION TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MSTR AND ALLOWING FOR
SLOW DEMISE OR EVEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS IF SKIES DO
MANAGE TO CLEAR SOME. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DOWNWARD TREND INTO
THIS EVENING. AND THEN SLOWLY INCREASE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL
YIELD A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY DAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OUT OF
THE PLAINS INTO NE MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM THE AREA WARRANTING REMOVAL
OF ANY POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A HAIR TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING IN THE EVENING. WEAK SE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIR TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS MAKING A RUN FOR FREEZING
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LONG WAVE PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES HELPING CREATE A ROLLER COASTER
PATTERN WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO
SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC TYPE SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM BUT
SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING.

FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND THUS HAVE REMOVED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WAS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY SOME
FLURRIES POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHERLY AS
THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION. DELTA T VALUES CLIMB INTO MID AND UPPER TEENS THROUGH THE
DAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MICHIGAN COUNTIES AND NW
INDIANA NEAR THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS SOUTH
IN AFTERNOON AND PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD AID IN A BRIEF
WINDOW OF DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE MID
EVENING HOURS. DURING THIS PERIOD...DELTA T VALUES RISE INTO THE 20S
BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT GREAT IN THE 5-7KFT RANGE. SATURATED LAYER
DOES EXTEND TO AROUND 5 OR 6KFT WITH PARTIALLY SATURATED DGZ AND
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW GOOD
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT AND SOME ACCUMS. EXPECTED AMOUNTS CURRENTLY
LOOK TO BE IN THE GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. DURATION SHOULD BE
SHORT AND DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z AS FLOW QUICKLY BACKS TO SOUTHWEST
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.

THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BRING AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH WHERE DEEPER
SATURATION LOOKS MOST LIKELY. MODELS VARY ON AMOUNT OF SATURATION
BUT HAVE KEPT A LOW POP GOING FOR CONSISTENCY AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.
ANOTHER DECENT WARMUP WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THIS
REALLY JUST GETS TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT
WILL FEEL WARM GIVEN RECENT PATTERN. BEYOND THE WEEKEND UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN ZONAL FLOW DICTATING BOUNDARY LOCATION AND HOW FAR WE GET
INTO THE COLD SECTOR AND FOR HOW LONG. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SYSTEMS CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD BUT SEVERAL WEAKER
SHORT WAVES LIKELY KEEPING CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WITH A FEW LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN TO SMALL TO MENTION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO DEPART THE AREA. CONDITIONS STILL
LOOK TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REACH VFR
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 251748
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1248 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. CLEARING
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LAKE RESPONSE INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN HAS BEEN LIMITED TO
CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO SW FLOW AS INVERSION HGTS CONTINUE TO
CRASH AND MSTR REMAINS LIMITED. WILL BE TONING DOWN POPS
CONSIDERABLY REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND LEAVE A MENTION OF
FLURRIES FOR A FEW HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO BE ON
TRACK...GIVE OR TAKE A DEGREE OR 2 SO ONLY MINOR EDITS NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

POTENTIAL OF SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS/SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE PRESENCE OF SHEARED UPPER
LEVEL WAVES ACROSS REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DRY AIR ABOVE
THE INVERSION HAS LIMITED ANY ACCUMULATION JUST TO A TENTH OR TWO
TWO IN SPOTS. NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLIGHTLY BETTER SATURATION IN DGZ THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF THIS
TROUGH HOWEVER. A SECONDARY TIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON ALSO
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WHICH MAY
HELP TO INDUCE SOME LOW LEVEL FGEN RESPONSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS TO MAXIMIZE IN THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME WITH
REINFORCING LOW LEVEL CAA PUSH...BUT STILL QUITE SHALLOW IN NATURE
WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS ONLY TO AROUND 6K FT. WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES WILL ALSO LIMIT FETCH...SO ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT APPEARS
TO BE MINIMAL AND MORE PRONOUNCED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN/FAR NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH MOST OF NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA JUST EXPERIENCING SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES. A VERY
LOW END CONCERN EXISTS FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DGZ BEGINS TO DRY OUT WITH
PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND BEFORE STRONGER SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
MOVES IN...BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT ANY PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE WOULD NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR ANY IMPACTS AND WILL OMIT FROM
ZFP WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE.

LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL CENTER ON
DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. STRENGTH OF SUBSIDENCE AND
EASTWARD ADVECTION OF AN AXIS OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY MAY BE ENOUGH TO CLEAR THINGS OUT THIS EVENING. STILL SOME
HESITATION TO FULLY BUY INTO THIS GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH LOWERING INVERSION...SO HAVE HEDGED SKY GRIDS
TO A BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TREND FOR TONIGHT. IF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CLEARING OCCURS...MINS MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS...BUT FOR THIS CYCLE
WILL STAY WITH INHERITED LOWER TO MID 20S MINS GIVEN ABOVE
UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

COLD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MID-LATE WEEK...WITH MILDER
PACIFIC AIR ADVECTING IN FOR THE WEEKEND...

GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES IN TRACKING A
COMPACT/DIGGING ALBERTA CLIPPER SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID MS/WESTERN
OH VALLEY LATER WED-WED EVE. STRIPE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACCOMPANYING THE LOW-MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE WILL LIKELY PASS SW OF THE
LOCAL AREA RESULTING IN A MAINLY DRY FCST LOCALLY DURING THIS TIME.
SEPARATE ROUND OF WEAK PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE TROPOPAUSE...AND
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVATION ASSOCIATED WITH RENEWED/VEERED CAA SURGE WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCT-NUM SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING
(MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 30). COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS
(1-3"?) IN FAVORED WNW FLOW ZONES AS 700 MB DELTA T`S TANK INTO THE
MID 20S AND INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KFT PER LATEST
FCST SOUNDINGS.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO ZONAL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
SUPPORTING A DECENT MODERATING TREND. THE RESULTING GRADIENT PATTERN
WITH FRONTAL ZONE IN THE VICINITY UNDER PERTURBED WESTERLIES MAKES
THIS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST FRIDAY AND BEYOND. MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO FAVOR WI INTO MI FOR BETTER WARM ADVECTION SNOW CHANCES
FRIDAY...BUT STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ON WHERE
BETTER FGEN/FORCING WILL ALIGN. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A WARMER/MAINLY
DRY SATURDAY AS BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS NORTH ALLOWING MILD AIR TO
OVERSPREAD. LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS THEREAFTER AS SUBTLE BUCKLE IN GREAT LAKES FLOW FORCES FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO DEPART THE AREA. CONDITIONS STILL
LOOK TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REACH VFR
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 251748
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1248 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. CLEARING
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LAKE RESPONSE INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN HAS BEEN LIMITED TO
CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO SW FLOW AS INVERSION HGTS CONTINUE TO
CRASH AND MSTR REMAINS LIMITED. WILL BE TONING DOWN POPS
CONSIDERABLY REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND LEAVE A MENTION OF
FLURRIES FOR A FEW HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO BE ON
TRACK...GIVE OR TAKE A DEGREE OR 2 SO ONLY MINOR EDITS NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

POTENTIAL OF SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS/SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE PRESENCE OF SHEARED UPPER
LEVEL WAVES ACROSS REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DRY AIR ABOVE
THE INVERSION HAS LIMITED ANY ACCUMULATION JUST TO A TENTH OR TWO
TWO IN SPOTS. NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLIGHTLY BETTER SATURATION IN DGZ THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF THIS
TROUGH HOWEVER. A SECONDARY TIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON ALSO
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WHICH MAY
HELP TO INDUCE SOME LOW LEVEL FGEN RESPONSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS TO MAXIMIZE IN THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME WITH
REINFORCING LOW LEVEL CAA PUSH...BUT STILL QUITE SHALLOW IN NATURE
WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS ONLY TO AROUND 6K FT. WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES WILL ALSO LIMIT FETCH...SO ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT APPEARS
TO BE MINIMAL AND MORE PRONOUNCED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN/FAR NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH MOST OF NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA JUST EXPERIENCING SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES. A VERY
LOW END CONCERN EXISTS FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DGZ BEGINS TO DRY OUT WITH
PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND BEFORE STRONGER SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
MOVES IN...BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT ANY PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE WOULD NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR ANY IMPACTS AND WILL OMIT FROM
ZFP WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE.

LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL CENTER ON
DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. STRENGTH OF SUBSIDENCE AND
EASTWARD ADVECTION OF AN AXIS OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY MAY BE ENOUGH TO CLEAR THINGS OUT THIS EVENING. STILL SOME
HESITATION TO FULLY BUY INTO THIS GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH LOWERING INVERSION...SO HAVE HEDGED SKY GRIDS
TO A BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TREND FOR TONIGHT. IF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CLEARING OCCURS...MINS MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS...BUT FOR THIS CYCLE
WILL STAY WITH INHERITED LOWER TO MID 20S MINS GIVEN ABOVE
UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

COLD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MID-LATE WEEK...WITH MILDER
PACIFIC AIR ADVECTING IN FOR THE WEEKEND...

GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES IN TRACKING A
COMPACT/DIGGING ALBERTA CLIPPER SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID MS/WESTERN
OH VALLEY LATER WED-WED EVE. STRIPE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACCOMPANYING THE LOW-MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE WILL LIKELY PASS SW OF THE
LOCAL AREA RESULTING IN A MAINLY DRY FCST LOCALLY DURING THIS TIME.
SEPARATE ROUND OF WEAK PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE TROPOPAUSE...AND
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVATION ASSOCIATED WITH RENEWED/VEERED CAA SURGE WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCT-NUM SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING
(MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 30). COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS
(1-3"?) IN FAVORED WNW FLOW ZONES AS 700 MB DELTA T`S TANK INTO THE
MID 20S AND INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KFT PER LATEST
FCST SOUNDINGS.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO ZONAL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
SUPPORTING A DECENT MODERATING TREND. THE RESULTING GRADIENT PATTERN
WITH FRONTAL ZONE IN THE VICINITY UNDER PERTURBED WESTERLIES MAKES
THIS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST FRIDAY AND BEYOND. MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO FAVOR WI INTO MI FOR BETTER WARM ADVECTION SNOW CHANCES
FRIDAY...BUT STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ON WHERE
BETTER FGEN/FORCING WILL ALIGN. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A WARMER/MAINLY
DRY SATURDAY AS BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS NORTH ALLOWING MILD AIR TO
OVERSPREAD. LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS THEREAFTER AS SUBTLE BUCKLE IN GREAT LAKES FLOW FORCES FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO DEPART THE AREA. CONDITIONS STILL
LOOK TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REACH VFR
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 251158
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
658 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TODAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED DIMINISHING WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

POTENTIAL OF SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS/SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE PRESENCE OF SHEARED UPPER
LEVEL WAVES ACROSS REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DRY AIR ABOVE
THE INVERSION HAS LIMITED ANY ACCUMULATION JUST TO A TENTH OR TWO
TWO IN SPOTS. NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLIGHTLY BETTER SATURATION IN DGZ THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF THIS
TROUGH HOWEVER. A SECONDARY TIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON ALSO
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WHICH MAY
HELP TO INDUCE SOME LOW LEVEL FGEN RESPONSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS TO MAXIMIZE IN THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME WITH
REINFORCING LOW LEVEL CAA PUSH...BUT STILL QUITE SHALLOW IN NATURE
WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS ONLY TO AROUND 6K FT. WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES WILL ALSO LIMIT FETCH...SO ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT APPEARS
TO BE MINIMAL AND MORE PRONOUNCED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN/FAR NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH MOST OF NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA JUST EXPERIENCING SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES. A VERY
LOW END CONCERN EXISTS FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DGZ BEGINS TO DRY OUT WITH
PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND BEFORE STRONGER SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
MOVES IN...BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT ANY PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE WOULD NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR ANY IMPACTS AND WILL OMIT FROM
ZFP WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE.

LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL CENTER ON
DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. STRENGTH OF SUBSIDENCE AND
EASTWARD ADVECTION OF AN AXIS OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY MAY BE ENOUGH TO CLEAR THINGS OUT THIS EVENING. STILL SOME
HESITATION TO FULLY BUY INTO THIS GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH LOWERING INVERSION...SO HAVE HEDGED SKY GRIDS
TO A BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TREND FOR TONIGHT. IF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CLEARING OCCURS...MINS MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS...BUT FOR THIS CYCLE
WILL STAY WITH INHERITED LOWER TO MID 20S MINS GIVEN ABOVE
UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

COLD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MID-LATE WEEK...WITH MILDER
PACIFIC AIR ADVECTING IN FOR THE WEEKEND...

GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES IN TRACKING A
COMPACT/DIGGING ALBERTA CLIPPER SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID MS/WESTERN
OH VALLEY LATER WED-WED EVE. STRIPE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACCOMPANYING THE LOW-MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE WILL LIKELY PASS SW OF THE
LOCAL AREA RESULTING IN A MAINLY DRY FCST LOCALLY DURING THIS TIME.
SEPARATE ROUND OF WEAK PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE TROPOPAUSE...AND
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVATION ASSOCIATED WITH RENEWED/VEERED CAA SURGE WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCT-NUM SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING
(MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 30). COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS
(1-3"?) IN FAVORED WNW FLOW ZONES AS 700 MB DELTA T`S TANK INTO THE
MID 20S AND INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KFT PER LATEST
FCST SOUNDINGS.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO ZONAL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
SUPPORTING A DECENT MODERATING TREND. THE RESULTING GRADIENT PATTERN
WITH FRONTAL ZONE IN THE VICINITY UNDER PERTURBED WESTERLIES MAKES
THIS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST FRIDAY AND BEYOND. MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO FAVOR WI INTO MI FOR BETTER WARM ADVECTION SNOW CHANCES
FRIDAY...BUT STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ON WHERE
BETTER FGEN/FORCING WILL ALIGN. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A WARMER/MAINLY
DRY SATURDAY AS BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS NORTH ALLOWING MILD AIR TO
OVERSPREAD. LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS THEREAFTER AS SUBTLE BUCKLE IN GREAT LAKES FLOW FORCES FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO KSBN...MAINLY THIS MORNING. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS TROUGH
AND DRY MID LEVEL PROFILES WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF LIGHT ACCUMULATION NORTH OF
KSBN. WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AND INCREASING SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD
SCATTER LOW CLOUDS. HOWEVER...SOME CONCERN THAT TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BENEATH INVERSION COULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST A BIT
LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. OTHERWISE...WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 251158
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
658 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TODAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED DIMINISHING WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

POTENTIAL OF SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS/SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE PRESENCE OF SHEARED UPPER
LEVEL WAVES ACROSS REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DRY AIR ABOVE
THE INVERSION HAS LIMITED ANY ACCUMULATION JUST TO A TENTH OR TWO
TWO IN SPOTS. NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLIGHTLY BETTER SATURATION IN DGZ THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF THIS
TROUGH HOWEVER. A SECONDARY TIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON ALSO
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WHICH MAY
HELP TO INDUCE SOME LOW LEVEL FGEN RESPONSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS TO MAXIMIZE IN THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME WITH
REINFORCING LOW LEVEL CAA PUSH...BUT STILL QUITE SHALLOW IN NATURE
WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS ONLY TO AROUND 6K FT. WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES WILL ALSO LIMIT FETCH...SO ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT APPEARS
TO BE MINIMAL AND MORE PRONOUNCED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN/FAR NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH MOST OF NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA JUST EXPERIENCING SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES. A VERY
LOW END CONCERN EXISTS FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DGZ BEGINS TO DRY OUT WITH
PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND BEFORE STRONGER SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
MOVES IN...BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT ANY PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE WOULD NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR ANY IMPACTS AND WILL OMIT FROM
ZFP WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE.

LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL CENTER ON
DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. STRENGTH OF SUBSIDENCE AND
EASTWARD ADVECTION OF AN AXIS OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY MAY BE ENOUGH TO CLEAR THINGS OUT THIS EVENING. STILL SOME
HESITATION TO FULLY BUY INTO THIS GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH LOWERING INVERSION...SO HAVE HEDGED SKY GRIDS
TO A BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TREND FOR TONIGHT. IF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CLEARING OCCURS...MINS MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS...BUT FOR THIS CYCLE
WILL STAY WITH INHERITED LOWER TO MID 20S MINS GIVEN ABOVE
UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

COLD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MID-LATE WEEK...WITH MILDER
PACIFIC AIR ADVECTING IN FOR THE WEEKEND...

GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES IN TRACKING A
COMPACT/DIGGING ALBERTA CLIPPER SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID MS/WESTERN
OH VALLEY LATER WED-WED EVE. STRIPE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACCOMPANYING THE LOW-MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE WILL LIKELY PASS SW OF THE
LOCAL AREA RESULTING IN A MAINLY DRY FCST LOCALLY DURING THIS TIME.
SEPARATE ROUND OF WEAK PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE TROPOPAUSE...AND
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVATION ASSOCIATED WITH RENEWED/VEERED CAA SURGE WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCT-NUM SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING
(MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 30). COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS
(1-3"?) IN FAVORED WNW FLOW ZONES AS 700 MB DELTA T`S TANK INTO THE
MID 20S AND INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KFT PER LATEST
FCST SOUNDINGS.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO ZONAL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
SUPPORTING A DECENT MODERATING TREND. THE RESULTING GRADIENT PATTERN
WITH FRONTAL ZONE IN THE VICINITY UNDER PERTURBED WESTERLIES MAKES
THIS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST FRIDAY AND BEYOND. MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO FAVOR WI INTO MI FOR BETTER WARM ADVECTION SNOW CHANCES
FRIDAY...BUT STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ON WHERE
BETTER FGEN/FORCING WILL ALIGN. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A WARMER/MAINLY
DRY SATURDAY AS BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS NORTH ALLOWING MILD AIR TO
OVERSPREAD. LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS THEREAFTER AS SUBTLE BUCKLE IN GREAT LAKES FLOW FORCES FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO KSBN...MAINLY THIS MORNING. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS TROUGH
AND DRY MID LEVEL PROFILES WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF LIGHT ACCUMULATION NORTH OF
KSBN. WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AND INCREASING SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD
SCATTER LOW CLOUDS. HOWEVER...SOME CONCERN THAT TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BENEATH INVERSION COULD ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST A BIT
LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. OTHERWISE...WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 250902
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
402 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TODAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED DIMINISHING WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

POTENTIAL OF SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS/SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE PRESENCE OF SHEARED UPPER
LEVEL WAVES ACROSS REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DRY AIR ABOVE
THE INVERSION HAS LIMITED ANY ACCUMULATION JUST TO A TENTH OR TWO
TWO IN SPOTS. NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLIGHTLY BETTER SATURATION IN DGZ THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF THIS
TROUGH HOWEVER. A SECONDARY TIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON ALSO
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WHICH MAY
HELP TO INDUCE SOME LOW LEVEL FGEN RESPONSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS TO MAXIMIZE IN THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME WITH
REINFORCING LOW LEVEL CAA PUSH...BUT STILL QUITE SHALLOW IN NATURE
WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS ONLY TO AROUND 6K FT. WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES WILL ALSO LIMIT FETCH...SO ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT APPEARS
TO BE MINIMAL AND MORE PRONOUNCED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN/FAR NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH MOST OF NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA JUST EXPERIENCING SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES. A VERY
LOW END CONCERN EXISTS FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DGZ BEGINS TO DRY OUT WITH
PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND BEFORE STRONGER SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
MOVES IN...BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT ANY PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE WOULD NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR ANY IMPACTS AND WILL OMIT FROM
ZFP WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE.

LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL CENTER ON
DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. STRENGTH OF SUBSIDENCE AND
EASTWARD ADVECTION OF AN AXIS OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY MAY BE ENOUGH TO CLEAR THINGS OUT THIS EVENING. STILL SOME
HESITATION TO FULLY BUY INTO THIS GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH LOWERING INVERSION...SO HAVE HEDGED SKY GRIDS
TO A BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TREND FOR TONIGHT. IF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CLEARING OCCURS...MINS MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS...BUT FOR THIS CYCLE
WILL STAY WITH INHERITED LOWER TO MID 20S MINS GIVEN ABOVE
UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

COLD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MID-LATE WEEK...WITH MILDER
PACIFIC AIR ADVECTING IN FOR THE WEEKEND...

GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES IN TRACKING A
COMPACT/DIGGING ALBERTA CLIPPER SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID MS/WESTERN
OH VALLEY LATER WED-WED EVE. STRIPE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACCOMPANYING THE LOW-MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE WILL LIKELY PASS SW OF THE
LOCAL AREA RESULTING IN A MAINLY DRY FCST LOCALLY DURING THIS TIME.
SEPARATE ROUND OF WEAK PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE TROPOPAUSE...AND
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVATION ASSOCIATED WITH RENEWED/VEERED CAA SURGE WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCT-NUM SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING
(MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 30). COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS
(1-3"?) IN FAVORED WNW FLOW ZONES AS 700 MB DELTA T`S TANK INTO THE
MID 20S AND INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KFT PER LATEST
FCST SOUNDINGS.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO ZONAL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
SUPPORTING A DECENT MODERATING TREND. THE RESULTING GRADIENT PATTERN
WITH FRONTAL ZONE IN THE VICINITY UNDER PERTURBED WESTERLIES MAKES
THIS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST FRIDAY AND BEYOND. MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO FAVOR WI INTO MI FOR BETTER WARM ADVECTION SNOW CHANCES
FRIDAY...BUT STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ON WHERE
BETTER FGEN/FORCING WILL ALIGN. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A WARMER/MAINLY
DRY SATURDAY AS BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS NORTH ALLOWING MILD AIR TO
OVERSPREAD. LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS THEREAFTER AS SUBTLE BUCKLE IN GREAT LAKES FLOW FORCES FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND WEAKEN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. ANOTHER VORT MAX DIGGING ACROSS THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. MVFR CIGS IN THE 1-2K FT RANGE ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO AOA 2K FT
AT KFWA AFTER 10Z...AND AT KSBN TOWARD MIDDAY. WEST WINDS SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE BY MID MORNING TUESDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 250902
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
402 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TODAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED DIMINISHING WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

POTENTIAL OF SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS/SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE PRESENCE OF SHEARED UPPER
LEVEL WAVES ACROSS REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DRY AIR ABOVE
THE INVERSION HAS LIMITED ANY ACCUMULATION JUST TO A TENTH OR TWO
TWO IN SPOTS. NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLIGHTLY BETTER SATURATION IN DGZ THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF THIS
TROUGH HOWEVER. A SECONDARY TIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIBBON ALSO
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WHICH MAY
HELP TO INDUCE SOME LOW LEVEL FGEN RESPONSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS TO MAXIMIZE IN THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME WITH
REINFORCING LOW LEVEL CAA PUSH...BUT STILL QUITE SHALLOW IN NATURE
WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS ONLY TO AROUND 6K FT. WESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES WILL ALSO LIMIT FETCH...SO ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT APPEARS
TO BE MINIMAL AND MORE PRONOUNCED TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN/FAR NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH MOST OF NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA JUST EXPERIENCING SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES. A VERY
LOW END CONCERN EXISTS FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS DGZ BEGINS TO DRY OUT WITH
PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND BEFORE STRONGER SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
MOVES IN...BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT ANY PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE WOULD NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR ANY IMPACTS AND WILL OMIT FROM
ZFP WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE.

LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL CENTER ON
DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. STRENGTH OF SUBSIDENCE AND
EASTWARD ADVECTION OF AN AXIS OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY MAY BE ENOUGH TO CLEAR THINGS OUT THIS EVENING. STILL SOME
HESITATION TO FULLY BUY INTO THIS GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF TRAPPED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH LOWERING INVERSION...SO HAVE HEDGED SKY GRIDS
TO A BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TREND FOR TONIGHT. IF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CLEARING OCCURS...MINS MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS...BUT FOR THIS CYCLE
WILL STAY WITH INHERITED LOWER TO MID 20S MINS GIVEN ABOVE
UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

COLD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MID-LATE WEEK...WITH MILDER
PACIFIC AIR ADVECTING IN FOR THE WEEKEND...

GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES IN TRACKING A
COMPACT/DIGGING ALBERTA CLIPPER SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID MS/WESTERN
OH VALLEY LATER WED-WED EVE. STRIPE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACCOMPANYING THE LOW-MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE WILL LIKELY PASS SW OF THE
LOCAL AREA RESULTING IN A MAINLY DRY FCST LOCALLY DURING THIS TIME.
SEPARATE ROUND OF WEAK PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE TROPOPAUSE...AND
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVATION ASSOCIATED WITH RENEWED/VEERED CAA SURGE WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCT-NUM SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING
(MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 30). COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS
(1-3"?) IN FAVORED WNW FLOW ZONES AS 700 MB DELTA T`S TANK INTO THE
MID 20S AND INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KFT PER LATEST
FCST SOUNDINGS.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO ZONAL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
SUPPORTING A DECENT MODERATING TREND. THE RESULTING GRADIENT PATTERN
WITH FRONTAL ZONE IN THE VICINITY UNDER PERTURBED WESTERLIES MAKES
THIS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST FRIDAY AND BEYOND. MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO FAVOR WI INTO MI FOR BETTER WARM ADVECTION SNOW CHANCES
FRIDAY...BUT STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ON WHERE
BETTER FGEN/FORCING WILL ALIGN. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A WARMER/MAINLY
DRY SATURDAY AS BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS NORTH ALLOWING MILD AIR TO
OVERSPREAD. LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPS THEREAFTER AS SUBTLE BUCKLE IN GREAT LAKES FLOW FORCES FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND WEAKEN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. ANOTHER VORT MAX DIGGING ACROSS THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. MVFR CIGS IN THE 1-2K FT RANGE ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO AOA 2K FT
AT KFWA AFTER 10Z...AND AT KSBN TOWARD MIDDAY. WEST WINDS SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE BY MID MORNING TUESDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 250609
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
109 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 DEGREES. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

LATEST OBS INDICATE WINDS CONTG TO GUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS NRN PORTION OF CWA. BUFR DATA SUGGEST THIS MAY CONT UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT... BUT WITH GUSTS ALREADY BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS SRN PORTION OF CWA... AND INTENSE LOW LIFTING SLOWLY NE
AWAY FROM THE AREA... EXPECT THE DIMINISHING WIND TREND WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE EVE... SO JUST EXTENDED THE WIND
ADVISORY TIL 10PM ACROSS THE NW... AND REPLACED THE HIGH WIND
WARNING WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE NE TIL 10 PM. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

EXTREME PRESSURE RISE CENTROID ON ORDER OF 7-8MB/3 HR LIFTING NWD
THROUGH NRN/NERN CWA ATTM. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE /NOTABLY
PROVIDING 12-16F/3 HR TEMP DROP/ AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OF
0-1 KM LYR AS DEEPER COLD AIR PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH CWA...WL
ALLOW WIND HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AT 00 UTC...WITH STILL NMRS 40-55
MPH GUSTS PAST 90 MINUTES...THOUGH CONCEDE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH REMAINING FEW HOURS. HEIGHTENED MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
COINCIDENT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHED WELL NORTH OF CWA...WCNTL
MI TRAILING INTO SRN WI. STILL ANTICIPATE NWRN CWA ALONG LEADING
EDGE AS FEATURE PIVOTS PRIOR TO NE EJECTION FOR SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT OF SHSN...WITH ONLY MINOR LOW POP/COVERAGE ELSEWHERE
PRIMARILY ASSOCD WITH ENHANCED POCKETS OF CAA AS DRY SLOT
PRESENCE TO REMAIN LARGE/MITIGATING FACTOR. TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND
SPCLY 12-15 UTC SOME MINOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUPPORTIVE OF HIR
POPS THOUGH LOW QPF/ACCUMS EXPECTED. LK/8H DELTA T IN 15-17C
RANGE WITH MUTED LK INDUCED CAPE /LTE 250 J/KG/ AND LK INDUCED
EQL CAPPED TO THE 5-6 KFT AGL RANGE...PER BLEND OF KSBN/KLWA 4KM
NAM SOUNDINGS. LACK OF SUPERSATURATION WITHIN SHALLOW/DISJOINTED
DGZ TO FURTHER PROVIDE PUTRID SNOW EFFICIENCIES. MINOR CHANGES TO
TEMPS WITH LITTLE DIURNAL RISE RESPONSE EXPECTED TUE WITH MAX T
SOME 20-27F COLDER OVR MON MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLD AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. THE PATTERN IS FAST MOVING AND THE MODELS VARY IN THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE INCOMING WAVES FOR MIDWEEK.
REGARDLESS THE CONTINUED SURGE OF REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL KEEP
SKIES OVERCAST WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLIPPER SYSTEM EXISTS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY AND THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER FAST WARMUP FRIDAY-SUNDAY. AGAIN...MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT
DIVERGENT IN ABSOLUTE SOLUTIONS FOR THE COMING WEEKEND...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO EJECT A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER RAINFALL EVENT
BEGINNING SATURDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MODERATE RAINFALL. AS
WITH THIS PAST WEEKENDS EVENT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE THERMAL
STRUCTURE WILL SUPPORT ALL RAIN. IN KEEPING WITH
CONSISTENCY...HAVE KEPT A MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REPEATING PATTERN...COLD AIR
WILL CHARGE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WHILE THE TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THE
PATTERN IS TOO SIMILAR TO BE IGNORED AND HAVE KEPT WITH THE MODEL
OUTPUT OF COOLER LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND WEAKEN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. ANOTHER VORT MAX DIGGING ACROSS THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. MVFR CIGS IN THE 1-2K FT RANGE ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO AOA 2K FT
AT KFWA AFTER 10Z...AND AT KSBN TOWARD MIDDAY. WEST WINDS SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE BY MID MORNING TUESDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 250018
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
718 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 DEGREES. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

LATEST OBS INDICATE WINDS CONTG TO GUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS NRN PORTION OF CWA. BUFR DATA SUGGEST THIS MAY CONT UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT... BUT WITH GUSTS ALREADY BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS SRN PORTION OF CWA... AND INTENSE LOW LIFTING SLOWLY NE
AWAY FROM THE AREA... EXPECT THE DIMINISHING WIND TREND WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE EVE... SO JUST EXTENDED THE WIND
ADVISORY TIL 10PM ACROSS THE NW... AND REPLACED THE HIGH WIND
WARNING WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE NE TIL 10 PM. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

EXTREME PRESSURE RISE CENTROID ON ORDER OF 7-8MB/3 HR LIFTING NWD
THROUGH NRN/NERN CWA ATTM. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE /NOTABLY
PROVIDING 12-16F/3 HR TEMP DROP/ AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OF
0-1 KM LYR AS DEEPER COLD AIR PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH CWA...WL
ALLOW WIND HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AT 00 UTC...WITH STILL NMRS 40-55
MPH GUSTS PAST 90 MINUTES...THOUGH CONCEDE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH REMAINING FEW HOURS. HEIGHTENED MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
COINCIDENT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHED WELL NORTH OF CWA...WCNTL
MI TRAILING INTO SRN WI. STILL ANTICIPATE NWRN CWA ALONG LEADING
EDGE AS FEATURE PIVOTS PRIOR TO NE EJECTION FOR SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT OF SHSN...WITH ONLY MINOR LOW POP/COVERAGE ELSEWHERE
PRIMARILY ASSOCD WITH ENHANCED POCKETS OF CAA AS DRY SLOT
PRESENCE TO REMAIN LARGE/MITIGATING FACTOR. TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND
SPCLY 12-15 UTC SOME MINOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUPPORTIVE OF HIR
POPS THOUGH LOW QPF/ACCUMS EXPECTED. LK/8H DELTA T IN 15-17C
RANGE WITH MUTED LK INDUCED CAPE /LTE 250 J/KG/ AND LK INDUCED
EQL CAPPED TO THE 5-6 KFT AGL RANGE...PER BLEND OF KSBN/KLWA 4KM
NAM SOUNDINGS. LACK OF SUPERSATURATION WITHIN SHALLOW/DISJOINTED
DGZ TO FURTHER PROVIDE PUTRID SNOW EFFICIENCIES. MINOR CHANGES TO
TEMPS WITH LITTLE DIURNAL RISE RESPONSE EXPECTED TUE WITH MAX T
SOME 20-27F COLDER OVR MON MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLD AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. THE PATTERN IS FAST MOVING AND THE MODELS VARY IN THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE INCOMING WAVES FOR MIDWEEK.
REGARDLESS THE CONTINUED SURGE OF REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL KEEP
SKIES OVERCAST WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLIPPER SYSTEM EXISTS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY AND THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER FAST WARMUP FRIDAY-SUNDAY. AGAIN...MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT
DIVERGENT IN ABSOLUTE SOLUTIONS FOR THE COMING WEEKEND...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO EJECT A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER RAINFALL EVENT
BEGINNING SATURDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MODERATE RAINFALL. AS
WITH THIS PAST WEEKENDS EVENT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE THERMAL
STRUCTURE WILL SUPPORT ALL RAIN. IN KEEPING WITH
CONSISTENCY...HAVE KEPT A MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REPEATING PATTERN...COLD AIR
WILL CHARGE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WHILE THE TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THE
PATTERN IS TOO SIMILAR TO BE IGNORED AND HAVE KEPT WITH THE MODEL
OUTPUT OF COOLER LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

STRONG SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND VEER TO WEST
OVERNIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH TUE
MORNING. AS FLOW WEAKENS ON TUE SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY REMAIN TRAPPED
BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION... SO MAINTAINED HIGH MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY IN THE LATEST TAF.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>009-012-014-016>018.

MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 250018
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
718 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 DEGREES. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

LATEST OBS INDICATE WINDS CONTG TO GUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS NRN PORTION OF CWA. BUFR DATA SUGGEST THIS MAY CONT UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT... BUT WITH GUSTS ALREADY BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS SRN PORTION OF CWA... AND INTENSE LOW LIFTING SLOWLY NE
AWAY FROM THE AREA... EXPECT THE DIMINISHING WIND TREND WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE EVE... SO JUST EXTENDED THE WIND
ADVISORY TIL 10PM ACROSS THE NW... AND REPLACED THE HIGH WIND
WARNING WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE NE TIL 10 PM. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

EXTREME PRESSURE RISE CENTROID ON ORDER OF 7-8MB/3 HR LIFTING NWD
THROUGH NRN/NERN CWA ATTM. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE /NOTABLY
PROVIDING 12-16F/3 HR TEMP DROP/ AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OF
0-1 KM LYR AS DEEPER COLD AIR PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH CWA...WL
ALLOW WIND HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AT 00 UTC...WITH STILL NMRS 40-55
MPH GUSTS PAST 90 MINUTES...THOUGH CONCEDE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH REMAINING FEW HOURS. HEIGHTENED MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
COINCIDENT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHED WELL NORTH OF CWA...WCNTL
MI TRAILING INTO SRN WI. STILL ANTICIPATE NWRN CWA ALONG LEADING
EDGE AS FEATURE PIVOTS PRIOR TO NE EJECTION FOR SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT OF SHSN...WITH ONLY MINOR LOW POP/COVERAGE ELSEWHERE
PRIMARILY ASSOCD WITH ENHANCED POCKETS OF CAA AS DRY SLOT
PRESENCE TO REMAIN LARGE/MITIGATING FACTOR. TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND
SPCLY 12-15 UTC SOME MINOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUPPORTIVE OF HIR
POPS THOUGH LOW QPF/ACCUMS EXPECTED. LK/8H DELTA T IN 15-17C
RANGE WITH MUTED LK INDUCED CAPE /LTE 250 J/KG/ AND LK INDUCED
EQL CAPPED TO THE 5-6 KFT AGL RANGE...PER BLEND OF KSBN/KLWA 4KM
NAM SOUNDINGS. LACK OF SUPERSATURATION WITHIN SHALLOW/DISJOINTED
DGZ TO FURTHER PROVIDE PUTRID SNOW EFFICIENCIES. MINOR CHANGES TO
TEMPS WITH LITTLE DIURNAL RISE RESPONSE EXPECTED TUE WITH MAX T
SOME 20-27F COLDER OVR MON MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLD AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. THE PATTERN IS FAST MOVING AND THE MODELS VARY IN THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE INCOMING WAVES FOR MIDWEEK.
REGARDLESS THE CONTINUED SURGE OF REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL KEEP
SKIES OVERCAST WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLIPPER SYSTEM EXISTS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY AND THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER FAST WARMUP FRIDAY-SUNDAY. AGAIN...MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT
DIVERGENT IN ABSOLUTE SOLUTIONS FOR THE COMING WEEKEND...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO EJECT A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER RAINFALL EVENT
BEGINNING SATURDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MODERATE RAINFALL. AS
WITH THIS PAST WEEKENDS EVENT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE THERMAL
STRUCTURE WILL SUPPORT ALL RAIN. IN KEEPING WITH
CONSISTENCY...HAVE KEPT A MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REPEATING PATTERN...COLD AIR
WILL CHARGE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WHILE THE TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THE
PATTERN IS TOO SIMILAR TO BE IGNORED AND HAVE KEPT WITH THE MODEL
OUTPUT OF COOLER LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

STRONG SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND VEER TO WEST
OVERNIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH TUE
MORNING. AS FLOW WEAKENS ON TUE SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY REMAIN TRAPPED
BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION... SO MAINTAINED HIGH MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY IN THE LATEST TAF.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>009-012-014-016>018.

MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 242103
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
403 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 DEGREES. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

EXTREME PRESSURE RISE CENTROID ON ORDER OF 7-8MB/3 HR LIFTING NWD
THROUGH NRN/NERN CWA ATTM. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE /NOTABLY
PROVIDING 12-16F/3 HR TEMP DROP/ AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OF
0-1 KM LYR AS DEEPER COLD AIR PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH CWA...WL
ALLOW WIND HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AT 00 UTC...WITH STILL NMRS 40-55
MPH GUSTS PAST 90 MINUTES...THOUGH CONCEDE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH REMAINING FEW HOURS. HEIGHTENED MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
COINCIDENT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHED WELL NORTH OF CWA...WCNTL
MI TRAILING INTO SRN WI. STILL ANTICIPATE NWRN CWA ALONG LEADING
EDGE AS FEATURE PIVOTS PRIOR TO NE EJECTION FOR SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT OF SHSN...WITH ONLY MINOR LOW POP/COVERAGE ELSEWHERE
PRIMARILY ASSOCD WITH ENHANCED POCKETS OF CAA AS DRY SLOT
PRESENCE TO REMAIN LARGE/MITIGATING FACTOR. TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND
SPCLY 12-15 UTC SOME MINOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUPPORTIVE OF HIR
POPS THOUGH LOW QPF/ACCUMS EXPECTED. LK/8H DELTA T IN 15-17C
RANGE WITH MUTED LK INDUCED CAPE /LTE 250 J/KG/ AND LK INDUCED
EQL CAPPED TO THE 5-6 KFT AGL RANGE...PER BLEND OF KSBN/KLWA 4KM
NAM SOUNDINGS. LACK OF SUPERSATURATION WITHIN SHALLOW/DISJOINTED
DGZ TO FURTHER PROVIDE PUTRID SNOW EFFICIENCIES. MINOR CHANGES TO
TEMPS WITH LITTLE DIURNAL RISE RESPONSE EXPECTED TUE WITH MAX T
SOME 20-27F COLDER OVR MON MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLD AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. THE PATTERN IS FAST MOVING AND THE MODELS VARY IN THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE INCOMING WAVES FOR MIDWEEK.
REGARDLESS THE CONTINUED SURGE OF REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL KEEP
SKIES OVERCAST WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLIPPER SYSTEM EXISTS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY AND THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER FAST WARMUP FRIDAY-SUNDAY. AGAIN...MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT
DIVERGENT IN ABSOLUTE SOLUTIONS FOR THE COMING WEEKEND...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO EJECT A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER RAINFALL EVENT
BEGINNING SATURDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MODERATE RAINFALL. AS
WITH THIS PAST WEEKENDS EVENT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE THERMAL
STRUCTURE WILL SUPPORT ALL RAIN. IN KEEPING WITH
CONSISTENCY...HAVE KEPT A MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REPEATING PATTERN...COLD AIR
WILL CHARGE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WHILE THE TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THE
PATTERN IS TOO SIMILAR TO BE IGNORED AND HAVE KEPT WITH THE MODEL
OUTPUT OF COOLER LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

PRONOUNCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 01Z WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO OVER 40 KNOTS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL
LINGER THROUGH 04Z BEFORE ABATING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

IN THE NEAR TERM THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SATURATED IN THE
DEFORMATION AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THIS HAS
TURNED...OR WILL TURN LIQUID PRECIP TO FROZEN QUICKLY. LIGHT SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND CIGS WILL REMAIN AT IFR WITH ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS.

AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE...HOWEVER EXPECT TO SEE IFR CIGS PERSISTING
THROUGH END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ007>009-
     016>018-022>027-032>034.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>006-012>015-020.

MI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ081.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>080.

OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 242103
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
403 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 DEGREES. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

EXTREME PRESSURE RISE CENTROID ON ORDER OF 7-8MB/3 HR LIFTING NWD
THROUGH NRN/NERN CWA ATTM. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE /NOTABLY
PROVIDING 12-16F/3 HR TEMP DROP/ AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OF
0-1 KM LYR AS DEEPER COLD AIR PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH CWA...WL
ALLOW WIND HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AT 00 UTC...WITH STILL NMRS 40-55
MPH GUSTS PAST 90 MINUTES...THOUGH CONCEDE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH REMAINING FEW HOURS. HEIGHTENED MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
COINCIDENT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHED WELL NORTH OF CWA...WCNTL
MI TRAILING INTO SRN WI. STILL ANTICIPATE NWRN CWA ALONG LEADING
EDGE AS FEATURE PIVOTS PRIOR TO NE EJECTION FOR SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT OF SHSN...WITH ONLY MINOR LOW POP/COVERAGE ELSEWHERE
PRIMARILY ASSOCD WITH ENHANCED POCKETS OF CAA AS DRY SLOT
PRESENCE TO REMAIN LARGE/MITIGATING FACTOR. TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND
SPCLY 12-15 UTC SOME MINOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUPPORTIVE OF HIR
POPS THOUGH LOW QPF/ACCUMS EXPECTED. LK/8H DELTA T IN 15-17C
RANGE WITH MUTED LK INDUCED CAPE /LTE 250 J/KG/ AND LK INDUCED
EQL CAPPED TO THE 5-6 KFT AGL RANGE...PER BLEND OF KSBN/KLWA 4KM
NAM SOUNDINGS. LACK OF SUPERSATURATION WITHIN SHALLOW/DISJOINTED
DGZ TO FURTHER PROVIDE PUTRID SNOW EFFICIENCIES. MINOR CHANGES TO
TEMPS WITH LITTLE DIURNAL RISE RESPONSE EXPECTED TUE WITH MAX T
SOME 20-27F COLDER OVR MON MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLD AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. THE PATTERN IS FAST MOVING AND THE MODELS VARY IN THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE INCOMING WAVES FOR MIDWEEK.
REGARDLESS THE CONTINUED SURGE OF REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL KEEP
SKIES OVERCAST WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLIPPER SYSTEM EXISTS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY AND THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER FAST WARMUP FRIDAY-SUNDAY. AGAIN...MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT
DIVERGENT IN ABSOLUTE SOLUTIONS FOR THE COMING WEEKEND...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO EJECT A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER RAINFALL EVENT
BEGINNING SATURDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MODERATE RAINFALL. AS
WITH THIS PAST WEEKENDS EVENT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE THERMAL
STRUCTURE WILL SUPPORT ALL RAIN. IN KEEPING WITH
CONSISTENCY...HAVE KEPT A MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REPEATING PATTERN...COLD AIR
WILL CHARGE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WHILE THE TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THE
PATTERN IS TOO SIMILAR TO BE IGNORED AND HAVE KEPT WITH THE MODEL
OUTPUT OF COOLER LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

PRONOUNCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 01Z WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO OVER 40 KNOTS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL
LINGER THROUGH 04Z BEFORE ABATING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

IN THE NEAR TERM THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SATURATED IN THE
DEFORMATION AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THIS HAS
TURNED...OR WILL TURN LIQUID PRECIP TO FROZEN QUICKLY. LIGHT SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND CIGS WILL REMAIN AT IFR WITH ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS.

AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE...HOWEVER EXPECT TO SEE IFR CIGS PERSISTING
THROUGH END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ007>009-
     016>018-022>027-032>034.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>006-012>015-020.

MI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ081.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>080.

OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 241745
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1245 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

EXTREMELY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA...WITH
A POTENTIAL OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SHARPLY
THROUGH THE 30S AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

INTENSE MESOVORT IN LEADING DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL CWA MOVG RAPIDLY
NWD. MIXDOWN ALREADY BRINGING G50 KTS AT KFWA. POWER OUTAGES
EXPECTED...MORE TREES/BRANCHES/SEMIS OR LARGE VEHICLES BLOWN OFF
ROADWAYS PROBABLE. UPG SERN HALF CWA TO HIGH WIND WARNING WHERE
HIEST /9.5-10.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES TO ENVELOP WARNED REGION BTWN
18-21 UTC TIMEFRAME COINCIDENT WITH MAX MOMENNUM XFER OF 45-60 KT
900-850MB LAYER FLOW ANTICIPATED WITH CROSS ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
ON ORDER OF 10 MB/3HRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER ON VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...AND PRECIP
TYPE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WITH A LULL IN THE GREATER RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS LULL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER VORT MAX
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25
TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO. THESE STRONGER GUSTS APPEAR TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH STRONG
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT MARKING NORTHEAST DEPARTURE OF CORE OF STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE A BIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI VORT MAX. A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH THIS VORT MAX AS WEAK MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA. 00Z NAM STILL DEPICT MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 100-300 J/KG
WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PUSH WITH THE FRONT. EXPECTING A SHARP INCREASE IN SFC
WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN BY THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME AS MAIN LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST
OHIO PROMOTING SOME BETTER MIXING. NAM/GFS/RAP BUFFER SOUNDINGS
ALL POINTING TO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF MIXING DOWN SOME 50+ MPH
WIND GUSTS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES. THIS THREAT
SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN THE 16Z-20Z TIMEFRAME WHEN STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. WITH POTENTIAL OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALSO WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
ENHANCED LOCALIZED MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS INTO THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA...PERHAPS A BIT MORE MARGINAL IN NATURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN GOING WIND ADVISORY...WITH A
MENTION OF 50+ MPH WIND GUSTS AS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT EXTENSION IN TIME FOR
THE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED PAST 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP...BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING TO PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOCATIONS TODAY AS NEXT VORT MAX DIGS ACROSS MID MS VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BETTER
DEFORMATION FORCING BY THIS EVENING STILL APPEARS TO SET UP
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH COMBINATION OF LINGERING
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY SUPPORT MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONLY TWEAK TO WEATHER GRIDS THIS MORNING WAS
FOR JUST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION TO SNOW SHOWER PTYPE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE NATURE OF PREVIOUS GRIDS REMAINS INTACT.
MORNING HIGHS MAY EVEN REACH 60 OR LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SHARP LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SETS IN LATER THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

AN UNWELCOMED RETURN TO COLD TEMP ANOMALIES THE PRIMARY WX STORY
MID-LATE WEEK AS ADDITIONAL EAST PACIFIC JET ENERGY HELPS REINFORCE
A RATHER DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. PIVOT THROUGH OF MID LVL
DEFORMATION AXIS/DEEPER SATURATION TUE AM AND ADDED MOISTURE FLUX
OFF LAKE MI WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER/FLURRIES/CLOUDS AROUND TUESDAY
(MAINLY NORTH). MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD
GIVEN LAKE-8H TEMP DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS/WESTERLY
FLOW...WITH LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 5-6 KFT/SHALLOW DGZ LIMITING
FACTORS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WILL COME LATER WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS SE
IN FLATTENING NW FLOW. LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE MID MS/WESTERN OH VALLEYS PLACING
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES IN A BETTER SPOT FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
RENEWED SHOT OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR IN VEERED WNW FLOW IN WAKE OF
THIS WAVE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP ON THANKSGIVING. COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS IN
FAVORED WNW FLOW ZONES AS 700 MB DELTA T`S PLUMMET INTO THE LOW-MID
20S AND INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KFT PER LATEST FCST
SOUNDINGS.

RELAXATION OF HEIGHT FIELD LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND WITH POLAR
JET/LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE POTENTIALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD ALLOW MILDER/MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO BRIEFLY
ADVECT IN BY AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM ADVECTION SURGE AROUND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST MUCH BETTER CHANCES NORTH
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE....RAISED HIGHS CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY GIVEN
EXCELLENT 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

PRONOUNCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 01Z WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO OVER 40 KNOTS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL
LINGER THROUGH 04Z BEFORE ABATING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD
AND THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

IN THE NEAR TERM THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SATURATED IN THE
DEFORMATION AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THIS HAS
TURNED...OR WILL TURN LIQUID PRECIP TO FROZEN QUICKLY. LIGHT SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND CIGS WILL REMAIN AT IFR WITH ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS.

AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE...HOWEVER EXPECT TO SEE IFR CIGS PERSISTING
THROUGH END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. SOME INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL LEAD TO VERY SMALL PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER AT
TERMINALS. POTENTIAL AT ANY ONE POINT IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION FOR
THE 12Z TAFS. BIGGER STORY CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING WINDS THIS
MORNING. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AT KFWA...WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AT BOTH TERMINALS TOWARD THE 15Z
TIMEFRAME IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO
40 TO 45 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KFWA...WITH AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
KSBN. WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT. THE MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STILL EXPECTED AT
KSBN...WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. MAIN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT COMBINED WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL PROVIDE
CONTINUED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LOCATED NORTH OF KSBN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ007>009-
     016>018-022>027-032>034.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>006-012>015-020.

MI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ081.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>080.

OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MURPHY
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 241745
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1245 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

EXTREMELY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA...WITH
A POTENTIAL OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SHARPLY
THROUGH THE 30S AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

INTENSE MESOVORT IN LEADING DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL CWA MOVG RAPIDLY
NWD. MIXDOWN ALREADY BRINGING G50 KTS AT KFWA. POWER OUTAGES
EXPECTED...MORE TREES/BRANCHES/SEMIS OR LARGE VEHICLES BLOWN OFF
ROADWAYS PROBABLE. UPG SERN HALF CWA TO HIGH WIND WARNING WHERE
HIEST /9.5-10.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES TO ENVELOP WARNED REGION BTWN
18-21 UTC TIMEFRAME COINCIDENT WITH MAX MOMENNUM XFER OF 45-60 KT
900-850MB LAYER FLOW ANTICIPATED WITH CROSS ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
ON ORDER OF 10 MB/3HRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER ON VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...AND PRECIP
TYPE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WITH A LULL IN THE GREATER RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS LULL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER VORT MAX
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25
TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO. THESE STRONGER GUSTS APPEAR TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH STRONG
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT MARKING NORTHEAST DEPARTURE OF CORE OF STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE A BIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI VORT MAX. A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH THIS VORT MAX AS WEAK MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA. 00Z NAM STILL DEPICT MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 100-300 J/KG
WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PUSH WITH THE FRONT. EXPECTING A SHARP INCREASE IN SFC
WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN BY THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME AS MAIN LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST
OHIO PROMOTING SOME BETTER MIXING. NAM/GFS/RAP BUFFER SOUNDINGS
ALL POINTING TO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF MIXING DOWN SOME 50+ MPH
WIND GUSTS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES. THIS THREAT
SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN THE 16Z-20Z TIMEFRAME WHEN STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. WITH POTENTIAL OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALSO WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
ENHANCED LOCALIZED MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS INTO THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA...PERHAPS A BIT MORE MARGINAL IN NATURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN GOING WIND ADVISORY...WITH A
MENTION OF 50+ MPH WIND GUSTS AS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT EXTENSION IN TIME FOR
THE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED PAST 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP...BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING TO PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOCATIONS TODAY AS NEXT VORT MAX DIGS ACROSS MID MS VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BETTER
DEFORMATION FORCING BY THIS EVENING STILL APPEARS TO SET UP
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH COMBINATION OF LINGERING
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY SUPPORT MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONLY TWEAK TO WEATHER GRIDS THIS MORNING WAS
FOR JUST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION TO SNOW SHOWER PTYPE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE NATURE OF PREVIOUS GRIDS REMAINS INTACT.
MORNING HIGHS MAY EVEN REACH 60 OR LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SHARP LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SETS IN LATER THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

AN UNWELCOMED RETURN TO COLD TEMP ANOMALIES THE PRIMARY WX STORY
MID-LATE WEEK AS ADDITIONAL EAST PACIFIC JET ENERGY HELPS REINFORCE
A RATHER DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. PIVOT THROUGH OF MID LVL
DEFORMATION AXIS/DEEPER SATURATION TUE AM AND ADDED MOISTURE FLUX
OFF LAKE MI WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER/FLURRIES/CLOUDS AROUND TUESDAY
(MAINLY NORTH). MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD
GIVEN LAKE-8H TEMP DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS/WESTERLY
FLOW...WITH LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 5-6 KFT/SHALLOW DGZ LIMITING
FACTORS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WILL COME LATER WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS SE
IN FLATTENING NW FLOW. LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE MID MS/WESTERN OH VALLEYS PLACING
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES IN A BETTER SPOT FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
RENEWED SHOT OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR IN VEERED WNW FLOW IN WAKE OF
THIS WAVE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP ON THANKSGIVING. COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS IN
FAVORED WNW FLOW ZONES AS 700 MB DELTA T`S PLUMMET INTO THE LOW-MID
20S AND INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KFT PER LATEST FCST
SOUNDINGS.

RELAXATION OF HEIGHT FIELD LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND WITH POLAR
JET/LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE POTENTIALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD ALLOW MILDER/MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO BRIEFLY
ADVECT IN BY AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM ADVECTION SURGE AROUND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST MUCH BETTER CHANCES NORTH
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE....RAISED HIGHS CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY GIVEN
EXCELLENT 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

PRONOUNCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 01Z WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO OVER 40 KNOTS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL
LINGER THROUGH 04Z BEFORE ABATING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD
AND THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

IN THE NEAR TERM THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SATURATED IN THE
DEFORMATION AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THIS HAS
TURNED...OR WILL TURN LIQUID PRECIP TO FROZEN QUICKLY. LIGHT SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND CIGS WILL REMAIN AT IFR WITH ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS.

AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE...HOWEVER EXPECT TO SEE IFR CIGS PERSISTING
THROUGH END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. SOME INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL LEAD TO VERY SMALL PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER AT
TERMINALS. POTENTIAL AT ANY ONE POINT IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION FOR
THE 12Z TAFS. BIGGER STORY CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING WINDS THIS
MORNING. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AT KFWA...WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AT BOTH TERMINALS TOWARD THE 15Z
TIMEFRAME IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO
40 TO 45 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KFWA...WITH AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
KSBN. WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT. THE MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STILL EXPECTED AT
KSBN...WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. MAIN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT COMBINED WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL PROVIDE
CONTINUED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LOCATED NORTH OF KSBN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ007>009-
     016>018-022>027-032>034.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>006-012>015-020.

MI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ081.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>080.

OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MURPHY
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 241542
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1042 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
EXTREMELY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THIS STORM
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR IS USHERED INTO
THE AREA...WITH A POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG
WITH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP SHARPLY THROUGH THE 40S AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

INTENSE MESOVORT IN LEADING DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL CWA MOVG RAPIDLY
NWD. MIXDOWN ALREADY BRINGING G50 KTS AT KFWA. POWER OUTAGES
EXPECTED...MORE TREES/BRANCHES/SEMIS OR LARGE VEHICLES BLOWN OFF
ROADWAYS PROBABLE. UPG SERN HALF CWA TO HIGH WIND WARNING WHERE
HIEST /9.5-10.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES TO ENVELOP WARNED REGION BTWN
18-21 UTC TIMEFRAME COINCIDENT WITH MAX MOMENNUM XFER OF 45-60 KT
900-850MB LAYER FLOW ANTICIPATED WITH CROSS ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
ON ORDER OF 10 MB/3HRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER ON VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...AND PRECIP
TYPE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WITH A LULL IN THE GREATER RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS LULL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER VORT MAX
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25
TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO. THESE STRONGER GUSTS APPEAR TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH STRONG
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT MARKING NORTHEAST DEPARTURE OF CORE OF STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE A BIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI VORT MAX. A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH THIS VORT MAX AS WEAK MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA. 00Z NAM STILL DEPICT MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 100-300 J/KG
WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PUSH WITH THE FRONT. EXPECTING A SHARP INCREASE IN SFC
WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN BY THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME AS MAIN LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST
OHIO PROMOTING SOME BETTER MIXING. NAM/GFS/RAP BUFFER SOUNDINGS
ALL POINTING TO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF MIXING DOWN SOME 50+ MPH
WIND GUSTS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES. THIS THREAT
SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN THE 16Z-20Z TIMEFRAME WHEN STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. WITH POTENTIAL OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALSO WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
ENHANCED LOCALIZED MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS INTO THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA...PERHAPS A BIT MORE MARGINAL IN NATURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN GOING WIND ADVISORY...WITH A
MENTION OF 50+ MPH WIND GUSTS AS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT EXTENSION IN TIME FOR
THE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED PAST 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP...BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING TO PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOCATIONS TODAY AS NEXT VORT MAX DIGS ACROSS MID MS VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BETTER
DEFORMATION FORCING BY THIS EVENING STILL APPEARS TO SET UP
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH COMBINATION OF LINGERING
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY SUPPORT MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONLY TWEAK TO WEATHER GRIDS THIS MORNING WAS
FOR JUST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION TO SNOW SHOWER PTYPE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE NATURE OF PREVIOUS GRIDS REMAINS INTACT.
MORNING HIGHS MAY EVEN REACH 60 OR LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SHARP LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SETS IN LATER THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

AN UNWELCOMED RETURN TO COLD TEMP ANOMALIES THE PRIMARY WX STORY
MID-LATE WEEK AS ADDITIONAL EAST PACIFIC JET ENERGY HELPS REINFORCE
A RATHER DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. PIVOT THROUGH OF MID LVL
DEFORMATION AXIS/DEEPER SATURATION TUE AM AND ADDED MOISTURE FLUX
OFF LAKE MI WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER/FLURRIES/CLOUDS AROUND TUESDAY
(MAINLY NORTH). MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD
GIVEN LAKE-8H TEMP DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS/WESTERLY
FLOW...WITH LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 5-6 KFT/SHALLOW DGZ LIMITING
FACTORS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WILL COME LATER WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS SE
IN FLATTENING NW FLOW. LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE MID MS/WESTERN OH VALLEYS PLACING
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES IN A BETTER SPOT FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
RENEWED SHOT OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR IN VEERED WNW FLOW IN WAKE OF
THIS WAVE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP ON THANKSGIVING. COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS IN
FAVORED WNW FLOW ZONES AS 700 MB DELTA T`S PLUMMET INTO THE LOW-MID
20S AND INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KFT PER LATEST FCST
SOUNDINGS.

RELAXATION OF HEIGHT FIELD LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND WITH POLAR
JET/LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE POTENTIALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD ALLOW MILDER/MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO BRIEFLY
ADVECT IN BY AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM ADVECTION SURGE AROUND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST MUCH BETTER CHANCES NORTH
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE....RAISED HIGHS CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY GIVEN
EXCELLENT 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. SOME INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL LEAD TO VERY SMALL PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER AT
TERMINALS. POTENTIAL AT ANY ONE POINT IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION FOR
THE 12Z TAFS. BIGGER STORY CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING WINDS THIS
MORNING. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AT KFWA...WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AT BOTH TERMINALS TOWARD THE 15Z
TIMEFRAME IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO
40 TO 45 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KFWA...WITH AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
KSBN. WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT. THE MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STILL EXPECTED AT
KSBN...WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. MAIN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT COMBINED WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL PROVIDE
CONTINUED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LOCATED NORTH OF KSBN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MURPHY
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 241542
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1042 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
EXTREMELY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THIS STORM
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR IS USHERED INTO
THE AREA...WITH A POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG
WITH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP SHARPLY THROUGH THE 40S AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

INTENSE MESOVORT IN LEADING DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL CWA MOVG RAPIDLY
NWD. MIXDOWN ALREADY BRINGING G50 KTS AT KFWA. POWER OUTAGES
EXPECTED...MORE TREES/BRANCHES/SEMIS OR LARGE VEHICLES BLOWN OFF
ROADWAYS PROBABLE. UPG SERN HALF CWA TO HIGH WIND WARNING WHERE
HIEST /9.5-10.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES TO ENVELOP WARNED REGION BTWN
18-21 UTC TIMEFRAME COINCIDENT WITH MAX MOMENNUM XFER OF 45-60 KT
900-850MB LAYER FLOW ANTICIPATED WITH CROSS ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
ON ORDER OF 10 MB/3HRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER ON VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...AND PRECIP
TYPE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WITH A LULL IN THE GREATER RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS LULL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER VORT MAX
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25
TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO. THESE STRONGER GUSTS APPEAR TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH STRONG
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT MARKING NORTHEAST DEPARTURE OF CORE OF STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE A BIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI VORT MAX. A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH THIS VORT MAX AS WEAK MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA. 00Z NAM STILL DEPICT MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 100-300 J/KG
WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PUSH WITH THE FRONT. EXPECTING A SHARP INCREASE IN SFC
WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN BY THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME AS MAIN LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST
OHIO PROMOTING SOME BETTER MIXING. NAM/GFS/RAP BUFFER SOUNDINGS
ALL POINTING TO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF MIXING DOWN SOME 50+ MPH
WIND GUSTS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES. THIS THREAT
SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN THE 16Z-20Z TIMEFRAME WHEN STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. WITH POTENTIAL OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALSO WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
ENHANCED LOCALIZED MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS INTO THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA...PERHAPS A BIT MORE MARGINAL IN NATURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN GOING WIND ADVISORY...WITH A
MENTION OF 50+ MPH WIND GUSTS AS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT EXTENSION IN TIME FOR
THE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED PAST 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP...BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING TO PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOCATIONS TODAY AS NEXT VORT MAX DIGS ACROSS MID MS VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BETTER
DEFORMATION FORCING BY THIS EVENING STILL APPEARS TO SET UP
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH COMBINATION OF LINGERING
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY SUPPORT MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONLY TWEAK TO WEATHER GRIDS THIS MORNING WAS
FOR JUST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION TO SNOW SHOWER PTYPE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE NATURE OF PREVIOUS GRIDS REMAINS INTACT.
MORNING HIGHS MAY EVEN REACH 60 OR LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SHARP LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SETS IN LATER THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

AN UNWELCOMED RETURN TO COLD TEMP ANOMALIES THE PRIMARY WX STORY
MID-LATE WEEK AS ADDITIONAL EAST PACIFIC JET ENERGY HELPS REINFORCE
A RATHER DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. PIVOT THROUGH OF MID LVL
DEFORMATION AXIS/DEEPER SATURATION TUE AM AND ADDED MOISTURE FLUX
OFF LAKE MI WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER/FLURRIES/CLOUDS AROUND TUESDAY
(MAINLY NORTH). MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD
GIVEN LAKE-8H TEMP DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS/WESTERLY
FLOW...WITH LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 5-6 KFT/SHALLOW DGZ LIMITING
FACTORS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WILL COME LATER WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS SE
IN FLATTENING NW FLOW. LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE MID MS/WESTERN OH VALLEYS PLACING
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES IN A BETTER SPOT FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
RENEWED SHOT OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR IN VEERED WNW FLOW IN WAKE OF
THIS WAVE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP ON THANKSGIVING. COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS IN
FAVORED WNW FLOW ZONES AS 700 MB DELTA T`S PLUMMET INTO THE LOW-MID
20S AND INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KFT PER LATEST FCST
SOUNDINGS.

RELAXATION OF HEIGHT FIELD LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND WITH POLAR
JET/LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE POTENTIALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD ALLOW MILDER/MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO BRIEFLY
ADVECT IN BY AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM ADVECTION SURGE AROUND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST MUCH BETTER CHANCES NORTH
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE....RAISED HIGHS CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY GIVEN
EXCELLENT 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. SOME INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL LEAD TO VERY SMALL PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER AT
TERMINALS. POTENTIAL AT ANY ONE POINT IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION FOR
THE 12Z TAFS. BIGGER STORY CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING WINDS THIS
MORNING. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AT KFWA...WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AT BOTH TERMINALS TOWARD THE 15Z
TIMEFRAME IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO
40 TO 45 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KFWA...WITH AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
KSBN. WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT. THE MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STILL EXPECTED AT
KSBN...WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. MAIN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT COMBINED WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL PROVIDE
CONTINUED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LOCATED NORTH OF KSBN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MURPHY
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 241145
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
645 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
AREA...WITH A POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP SHARPLY THROUGH THE 40S AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER ON VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...AND PRECIP
TYPE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WITH A LULL IN THE GREATER RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS LULL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER VORT MAX
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25
TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO. THESE STRONGER GUSTS APPEAR TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH STRONG
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT MARKING NORTHEAST DEPARTURE OF CORE OF STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE A BIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI VORT MAX. A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH THIS VORT MAX AS WEAK MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA. 00Z NAM STILL DEPICT MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 100-300 J/KG
WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PUSH WITH THE FRONT. EXPECTING A SHARP INCREASE IN SFC
WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN BY THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME AS MAIN LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST
OHIO PROMOTING SOME BETTER MIXING. NAM/GFS/RAP BUFFER SOUNDINGS
ALL POINTING TO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF MIXING DOWN SOME 50+ MPH
WIND GUSTS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES. THIS THREAT
SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN THE 16Z-20Z TIMEFRAME WHEN STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. WITH POTENTIAL OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALSO WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
ENHANCED LOCALIZED MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS INTO THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA...PERHAPS A BIT MORE MARGINAL IN NATURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN GOING WIND ADVISORY...WITH A
MENTION OF 50+ MPH WIND GUSTS AS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT EXTENSION IN TIME FOR
THE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED PAST 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP...BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING TO PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOCATIONS TODAY AS NEXT VORT MAX DIGS ACROSS MID MS VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BETTER
DEFORMATION FORCING BY THIS EVENING STILL APPEARS TO SET UP
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH COMBINATION OF LINGERING
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY SUPPORT MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONLY TWEAK TO WEATHER GRIDS THIS MORNING WAS
FOR JUST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION TO SNOW SHOWER PTYPE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE NATURE OF PREVIOUS GRIDS REMAINS INTACT.
MORNING HIGHS MAY EVEN REACH 60 OR LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SHARP LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SETS IN LATER THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

AN UNWELCOMED RETURN TO COLD TEMP ANOMALIES THE PRIMARY WX STORY
MID-LATE WEEK AS ADDITIONAL EAST PACIFIC JET ENERGY HELPS REINFORCE
A RATHER DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. PIVOT THROUGH OF MID LVL
DEFORMATION AXIS/DEEPER SATURATION TUE AM AND ADDED MOISTURE FLUX
OFF LAKE MI WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER/FLURRIES/CLOUDS AROUND TUESDAY
(MAINLY NORTH). MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD
GIVEN LAKE-8H TEMP DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS/WESTERLY
FLOW...WITH LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 5-6 KFT/SHALLOW DGZ LIMITING
FACTORS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WILL COME LATER WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS SE
IN FLATTENING NW FLOW. LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE MID MS/WESTERN OH VALLEYS PLACING
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES IN A BETTER SPOT FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
RENEWED SHOT OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR IN VEERED WNW FLOW IN WAKE OF
THIS WAVE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP ON THANKSGIVING. COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS IN
FAVORED WNW FLOW ZONES AS 700 MB DELTA T`S PLUMMET INTO THE LOW-MID
20S AND INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KFT PER LATEST FCST
SOUNDINGS.

RELAXATION OF HEIGHT FIELD LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND WITH POLAR
JET/LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE POTENTIALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD ALLOW MILDER/MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO BRIEFLY
ADVECT IN BY AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM ADVECTION SURGE AROUND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST MUCH BETTER CHANCES NORTH
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE....RAISED HIGHS CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY GIVEN
EXCELLENT 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. SOME INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL LEAD TO VERY SMALL PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER AT
TERMINALS. POTENTIAL AT ANY ONE POINT IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION FOR
THE 12Z TAFS. BIGGER STORY CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING WINDS THIS
MORNING. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AT KFWA...WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AT BOTH TERMINALS TOWARD THE 15Z
TIMEFRAME IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO
40 TO 45 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KFWA...WITH AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
KSBN. WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT. THE MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STILL EXPECTED AT
KSBN...WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. MAIN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT COMBINED WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL PROVIDE
CONTINUED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LOCATED NORTH OF KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ007-009-018-026-
     027-033-034.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>006-008-012>017-020-022>025-032.

MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ081.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>080.

OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 241145
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
645 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
AREA...WITH A POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP SHARPLY THROUGH THE 40S AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER ON VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...AND PRECIP
TYPE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WITH A LULL IN THE GREATER RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS LULL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER VORT MAX
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25
TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO. THESE STRONGER GUSTS APPEAR TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH STRONG
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT MARKING NORTHEAST DEPARTURE OF CORE OF STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE A BIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI VORT MAX. A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH THIS VORT MAX AS WEAK MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA. 00Z NAM STILL DEPICT MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 100-300 J/KG
WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PUSH WITH THE FRONT. EXPECTING A SHARP INCREASE IN SFC
WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN BY THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME AS MAIN LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST
OHIO PROMOTING SOME BETTER MIXING. NAM/GFS/RAP BUFFER SOUNDINGS
ALL POINTING TO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF MIXING DOWN SOME 50+ MPH
WIND GUSTS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES. THIS THREAT
SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN THE 16Z-20Z TIMEFRAME WHEN STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. WITH POTENTIAL OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALSO WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
ENHANCED LOCALIZED MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS INTO THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA...PERHAPS A BIT MORE MARGINAL IN NATURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN GOING WIND ADVISORY...WITH A
MENTION OF 50+ MPH WIND GUSTS AS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT EXTENSION IN TIME FOR
THE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED PAST 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP...BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING TO PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOCATIONS TODAY AS NEXT VORT MAX DIGS ACROSS MID MS VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BETTER
DEFORMATION FORCING BY THIS EVENING STILL APPEARS TO SET UP
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH COMBINATION OF LINGERING
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY SUPPORT MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONLY TWEAK TO WEATHER GRIDS THIS MORNING WAS
FOR JUST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION TO SNOW SHOWER PTYPE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE NATURE OF PREVIOUS GRIDS REMAINS INTACT.
MORNING HIGHS MAY EVEN REACH 60 OR LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SHARP LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SETS IN LATER THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

AN UNWELCOMED RETURN TO COLD TEMP ANOMALIES THE PRIMARY WX STORY
MID-LATE WEEK AS ADDITIONAL EAST PACIFIC JET ENERGY HELPS REINFORCE
A RATHER DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. PIVOT THROUGH OF MID LVL
DEFORMATION AXIS/DEEPER SATURATION TUE AM AND ADDED MOISTURE FLUX
OFF LAKE MI WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER/FLURRIES/CLOUDS AROUND TUESDAY
(MAINLY NORTH). MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD
GIVEN LAKE-8H TEMP DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS/WESTERLY
FLOW...WITH LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 5-6 KFT/SHALLOW DGZ LIMITING
FACTORS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WILL COME LATER WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS SE
IN FLATTENING NW FLOW. LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE MID MS/WESTERN OH VALLEYS PLACING
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES IN A BETTER SPOT FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
RENEWED SHOT OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR IN VEERED WNW FLOW IN WAKE OF
THIS WAVE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP ON THANKSGIVING. COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS IN
FAVORED WNW FLOW ZONES AS 700 MB DELTA T`S PLUMMET INTO THE LOW-MID
20S AND INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KFT PER LATEST FCST
SOUNDINGS.

RELAXATION OF HEIGHT FIELD LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND WITH POLAR
JET/LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE POTENTIALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD ALLOW MILDER/MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO BRIEFLY
ADVECT IN BY AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM ADVECTION SURGE AROUND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST MUCH BETTER CHANCES NORTH
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE....RAISED HIGHS CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY GIVEN
EXCELLENT 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. SOME INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL LEAD TO VERY SMALL PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER AT
TERMINALS. POTENTIAL AT ANY ONE POINT IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION FOR
THE 12Z TAFS. BIGGER STORY CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING WINDS THIS
MORNING. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AT KFWA...WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AT BOTH TERMINALS TOWARD THE 15Z
TIMEFRAME IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO
40 TO 45 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KFWA...WITH AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
KSBN. WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT. THE MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STILL EXPECTED AT
KSBN...WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. MAIN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT COMBINED WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL PROVIDE
CONTINUED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LOCATED NORTH OF KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ007-009-018-026-
     027-033-034.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>006-008-012>017-020-022>025-032.

MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ081.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>080.

OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 240920
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
420 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
AREA...WITH A POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP SHARPLY THROUGH THE 40S AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER ON VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...AND PRECIP
TYPE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WITH A LULL IN THE GREATER RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS LULL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER VORT MAX
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25
TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO. THESE STRONGER GUSTS APPEAR TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH STRONG
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT MARKING NORTHEAST DEPARTURE OF CORE OF STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE A BIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI VORT MAX. A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH THIS VORT MAX AS WEAK MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA. 00Z NAM STILL DEPICT MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 100-300 J/KG
WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PUSH WITH THE FRONT. EXPECTING A SHARP INCREASE IN SFC
WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN BY THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME AS MAIN LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST
OHIO PROMOTING SOME BETTER MIXING. NAM/GFS/RAP BUFFER SOUNDINGS
ALL POINTING TO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF MIXING DOWN SOME 50+ MPH
WIND GUSTS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES. THIS THREAT
SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN THE 16Z-20Z TIMEFRAME WHEN STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. WITH POTENTIAL OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALSO WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
ENHANCED LOCALIZED MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS INTO THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA...PERHAPS A BIT MORE MARGINAL IN NATURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN GOING WIND ADVISORY...WITH A
MENTION OF 50+ MPH WIND GUSTS AS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT EXTENSION IN TIME FOR
THE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED PAST 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP...BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING TO PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOCATIONS TODAY AS NEXT VORT MAX DIGS ACROSS MID MS VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BETTER
DEFORMATION FORCING BY THIS EVENING STILL APPEARS TO SET UP
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH COMBINATION OF LINGERING
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY SUPPORT MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONLY TWEAK TO WEATHER GRIDS THIS MORNING WAS
FOR JUST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION TO SNOW SHOWER PTYPE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE NATURE OF PREVIOUS GRIDS REMAINS INTACT.
MORNING HIGHS MAY EVEN REACH 60 OR LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SHARP LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SETS IN LATER THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

AN UNWELCOMED RETURN TO COLD TEMP ANOMALIES THE PRIMARY WX STORY
MID-LATE WEEK AS ADDITIONAL EAST PACIFIC JET ENERGY HELPS REINFORCE
A RATHER DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. PIVOT THROUGH OF MID LVL
DEFORMATION AXIS/DEEPER SATURATION TUE AM AND ADDED MOISTURE FLUX
OFF LAKE MI WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER/FLURRIES/CLOUDS AROUND TUESDAY
(MAINLY NORTH). MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD
GIVEN LAKE-8H TEMP DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS/WESTERLY
FLOW...WITH LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 5-6 KFT/SHALLOW DGZ LIMITING
FACTORS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WILL COME LATER WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS SE
IN FLATTENING NW FLOW. LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE MID MS/WESTERN OH VALLEYS PLACING
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES IN A BETTER SPOT FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
RENEWED SHOT OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR IN VEERED WNW FLOW IN WAKE OF
THIS WAVE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP ON THANKSGIVING. COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS IN
FAVORED WNW FLOW ZONES AS 700 MB DELTA T`S PLUMMET INTO THE LOW-MID
20S AND INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KFT PER LATEST FCST
SOUNDINGS.

RELAXATION OF HEIGHT FIELD LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND WITH POLAR
JET/LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE POTENTIALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD ALLOW MILDER/MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO BRIEFLY
ADVECT IN BY AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM ADVECTION SURGE AROUND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST MUCH BETTER CHANCES NORTH
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE....RAISED HIGHS CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY GIVEN
EXCELLENT 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR CIGS...WITH SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS TO LOWER END MVFR ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL
WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS STRONGEST LEAD
THETAE ADVECTION FORCING AND INITIAL SHORTWAVE LIFT NORTHWARD.
BREAKS IN PRECIP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. RELATIVELY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND SFC FRONT MAY EVEN YIELD AN ISOLD
THUNDER THREAT BUT WILL HOLD OFF MENTION FOR TERMINAL FORECASTS
WITH EXPECTED VERY ISOLATED NATURE. BIGGER STORY WILL BE VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD...BEGINNING IN THE 14Z TIMEFRAME.
EVEN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...INCREASED MIXING IN THE MORNING MAY
SUPPORT SOUTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS AT KFWA...WITH STRONGER
WINDS AT KSBN PERHAPS MORE DELAYED UNTIL ACTUAL WIND SHIFT AROUND
15Z WHEN GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION AT KSBN. WINDS SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 30
KNOTS AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ007-009-018-026-
     027-033-034.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ003>006-008-012>017-020-
     022>025-032.

MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ081.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ077>080.

OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 240920
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
420 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
AREA...WITH A POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP SHARPLY THROUGH THE 40S AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER ON VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...AND PRECIP
TYPE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WITH A LULL IN THE GREATER RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS LULL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER VORT MAX
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25
TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO. THESE STRONGER GUSTS APPEAR TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH STRONG
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT MARKING NORTHEAST DEPARTURE OF CORE OF STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE A BIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI VORT MAX. A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH THIS VORT MAX AS WEAK MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA. 00Z NAM STILL DEPICT MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 100-300 J/KG
WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PUSH WITH THE FRONT. EXPECTING A SHARP INCREASE IN SFC
WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN BY THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME AS MAIN LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST
OHIO PROMOTING SOME BETTER MIXING. NAM/GFS/RAP BUFFER SOUNDINGS
ALL POINTING TO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF MIXING DOWN SOME 50+ MPH
WIND GUSTS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES. THIS THREAT
SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN THE 16Z-20Z TIMEFRAME WHEN STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. WITH POTENTIAL OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALSO WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
ENHANCED LOCALIZED MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS INTO THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA...PERHAPS A BIT MORE MARGINAL IN NATURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN GOING WIND ADVISORY...WITH A
MENTION OF 50+ MPH WIND GUSTS AS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT EXTENSION IN TIME FOR
THE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED PAST 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP...BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING TO PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOCATIONS TODAY AS NEXT VORT MAX DIGS ACROSS MID MS VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BETTER
DEFORMATION FORCING BY THIS EVENING STILL APPEARS TO SET UP
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH COMBINATION OF LINGERING
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY SUPPORT MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONLY TWEAK TO WEATHER GRIDS THIS MORNING WAS
FOR JUST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION TO SNOW SHOWER PTYPE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE NATURE OF PREVIOUS GRIDS REMAINS INTACT.
MORNING HIGHS MAY EVEN REACH 60 OR LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SHARP LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SETS IN LATER THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

AN UNWELCOMED RETURN TO COLD TEMP ANOMALIES THE PRIMARY WX STORY
MID-LATE WEEK AS ADDITIONAL EAST PACIFIC JET ENERGY HELPS REINFORCE
A RATHER DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. PIVOT THROUGH OF MID LVL
DEFORMATION AXIS/DEEPER SATURATION TUE AM AND ADDED MOISTURE FLUX
OFF LAKE MI WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER/FLURRIES/CLOUDS AROUND TUESDAY
(MAINLY NORTH). MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD
GIVEN LAKE-8H TEMP DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS/WESTERLY
FLOW...WITH LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 5-6 KFT/SHALLOW DGZ LIMITING
FACTORS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WILL COME LATER WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS SE
IN FLATTENING NW FLOW. LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE MID MS/WESTERN OH VALLEYS PLACING
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES IN A BETTER SPOT FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
RENEWED SHOT OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR IN VEERED WNW FLOW IN WAKE OF
THIS WAVE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP ON THANKSGIVING. COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS IN
FAVORED WNW FLOW ZONES AS 700 MB DELTA T`S PLUMMET INTO THE LOW-MID
20S AND INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KFT PER LATEST FCST
SOUNDINGS.

RELAXATION OF HEIGHT FIELD LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND WITH POLAR
JET/LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE POTENTIALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD ALLOW MILDER/MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO BRIEFLY
ADVECT IN BY AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM ADVECTION SURGE AROUND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST MUCH BETTER CHANCES NORTH
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE....RAISED HIGHS CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY GIVEN
EXCELLENT 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR CIGS...WITH SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS TO LOWER END MVFR ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL
WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS STRONGEST LEAD
THETAE ADVECTION FORCING AND INITIAL SHORTWAVE LIFT NORTHWARD.
BREAKS IN PRECIP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. RELATIVELY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND SFC FRONT MAY EVEN YIELD AN ISOLD
THUNDER THREAT BUT WILL HOLD OFF MENTION FOR TERMINAL FORECASTS
WITH EXPECTED VERY ISOLATED NATURE. BIGGER STORY WILL BE VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD...BEGINNING IN THE 14Z TIMEFRAME.
EVEN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...INCREASED MIXING IN THE MORNING MAY
SUPPORT SOUTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS AT KFWA...WITH STRONGER
WINDS AT KSBN PERHAPS MORE DELAYED UNTIL ACTUAL WIND SHIFT AROUND
15Z WHEN GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION AT KSBN. WINDS SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 30
KNOTS AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ007-009-018-026-
     027-033-034.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ003>006-008-012>017-020-
     022>025-032.

MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ081.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ077>080.

OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 240602
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
102 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 621 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT CAUSING WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA ON MONDAY RESULTING IN VERY WINDY AND MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA... WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S... WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 30S ON MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY STRONG LLJ ADVANCING NE ACROSS OH THIS EVE MIXING SOME
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH
SHOULD CONT AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS WORKING OUT WELL
BUT BUMPED UP QPF EARLIER WITH 1-2" RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. LARGE AREA OF RAIN AHEAD OF LEAD NEG TILT SHRTWV
SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT... BUT SHOWERS WILL FILL
IN SHORTLY THEREAFTER...ESPECIALLY WRN PORTIONS AS FRONT AND
SECONDARY CHANNELED VORT MAX CLOSER TO MAIN UPR TROF APPROACH.
TSTMS HAVE BEEN OCRG THIS EVE OVER SRN MO IN AREA OF WK
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE FEATURES ARE FCST
TO LIFT NE ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY MORNING AS CDFNT MOVES
THROUGH... SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE FLUX
INCREASES IN THE LOW LEVELS. RAISED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN
INCH BY EARLY MONDAY. UPSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS HAVE DROPPED TO 8
MB/3HR... INDICATIVE OF A WELL/DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LAYERS AND DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. AS
FOR MONDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A VERY TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...ALTHOUGH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FEW CHANGES WRT LATEST LONG TERM PD. INTENSE SHORTWAVES WITHIN
LONGWAVE TROF FIRST LIFTING NWD FROM NERN MS WITH ADDNL ENERGY
ASSOCD UPSTREAM WITH EXIT REGION OF 140-150 KT ULVL JET TO EJECT
INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION IN NEG TILT FASHION WITH MARKED/RAPID
DEEPENING OF SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NNEWD FM ERN OK TO N OF LK SUPR
BY 18 UTC MON. CONTINUE TO FAVOR TIMING OF CHANGEOVER MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LAGGED WARM TW ALOFT TRAILING WELL BEHIND SFC FNTL ZONE
PASSAGE. HIEST POPS/QPF/SNOWFALL IN NWNR CWA IN LINE WITH STRONGEST
MID LVL DEFORMATION/DEEPER MSTR WRAPPING SFC LOW. FOLLOWED BY MODEST
LES RESPONSE WITH MID/UPPER TEENS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS TONED DOWN BY
ANEMIC SATURATION WITHIN A SHALLOW DGZ LYR. NEXT NRN STREAM WAVE
EMITTED FM ALEUTIAN VORTEX FAVORS WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD
THROUGH NRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WRN GRTLKS WED AFNT/EVE. MODERATE
I285K ISENT UPGLIDE THOUGH WITH INITIAL MSTR SOURCE VOID MAY TAKE A
PROLONGED PD BEFORE TOP/DOWN SATURATION OCCURS WITH ASSOCD
FEATURE...WITH HIEST POPS WED NIGHT. THEREAFTER COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS
RAMPS LENDING TO WHITHER OF GRTLKS SYSTEM...PER MOST MODEL CONSENSUS
SANS GFSX. AGAIN ONLY A MODEST LES RESPONSE ANTICIPATED THU/THU
NIGHT AND PERHAPS AGAIN ABOUT SAT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE/WEAK
TRANSITORY SYSTEM PSBL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR CIGS...WITH SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS TO LOWER END MVFR ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL
WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS STRONGEST LEAD
THETAE ADVECTION FORCING AND INITIAL SHORTWAVE LIFT NORTHWARD.
BREAKS IN PRECIP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. RELATIVELY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND SFC FRONT MAY EVEN YIELD AN ISOLD
THUNDER THREAT BUT WILL HOLD OFF MENTION FOR TERMINAL FORECASTS
WITH EXPECTED VERY ISOLATED NATURE. BIGGER STORY WILL BE VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD...BEGINNING IN THE 14Z TIMEFRAME.
EVEN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...INCREASED MIXING IN THE MORNING MAY
SUPPORT SOUTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS AT KFWA...WITH STRONGER
WINDS AT KSBN PERHAPS MORE DELAYED UNTIL ACTUAL WIND SHIFT AROUND
15Z WHEN GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION AT KSBN. WINDS SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 30
KNOTS AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-
     032>034.

MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/NG/JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 240602
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
102 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 621 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT CAUSING WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA ON MONDAY RESULTING IN VERY WINDY AND MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA... WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S... WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 30S ON MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY STRONG LLJ ADVANCING NE ACROSS OH THIS EVE MIXING SOME
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH
SHOULD CONT AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS WORKING OUT WELL
BUT BUMPED UP QPF EARLIER WITH 1-2" RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. LARGE AREA OF RAIN AHEAD OF LEAD NEG TILT SHRTWV
SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT... BUT SHOWERS WILL FILL
IN SHORTLY THEREAFTER...ESPECIALLY WRN PORTIONS AS FRONT AND
SECONDARY CHANNELED VORT MAX CLOSER TO MAIN UPR TROF APPROACH.
TSTMS HAVE BEEN OCRG THIS EVE OVER SRN MO IN AREA OF WK
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE FEATURES ARE FCST
TO LIFT NE ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY MORNING AS CDFNT MOVES
THROUGH... SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE FLUX
INCREASES IN THE LOW LEVELS. RAISED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN
INCH BY EARLY MONDAY. UPSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS HAVE DROPPED TO 8
MB/3HR... INDICATIVE OF A WELL/DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LAYERS AND DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. AS
FOR MONDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A VERY TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...ALTHOUGH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FEW CHANGES WRT LATEST LONG TERM PD. INTENSE SHORTWAVES WITHIN
LONGWAVE TROF FIRST LIFTING NWD FROM NERN MS WITH ADDNL ENERGY
ASSOCD UPSTREAM WITH EXIT REGION OF 140-150 KT ULVL JET TO EJECT
INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION IN NEG TILT FASHION WITH MARKED/RAPID
DEEPENING OF SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NNEWD FM ERN OK TO N OF LK SUPR
BY 18 UTC MON. CONTINUE TO FAVOR TIMING OF CHANGEOVER MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LAGGED WARM TW ALOFT TRAILING WELL BEHIND SFC FNTL ZONE
PASSAGE. HIEST POPS/QPF/SNOWFALL IN NWNR CWA IN LINE WITH STRONGEST
MID LVL DEFORMATION/DEEPER MSTR WRAPPING SFC LOW. FOLLOWED BY MODEST
LES RESPONSE WITH MID/UPPER TEENS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS TONED DOWN BY
ANEMIC SATURATION WITHIN A SHALLOW DGZ LYR. NEXT NRN STREAM WAVE
EMITTED FM ALEUTIAN VORTEX FAVORS WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD
THROUGH NRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WRN GRTLKS WED AFNT/EVE. MODERATE
I285K ISENT UPGLIDE THOUGH WITH INITIAL MSTR SOURCE VOID MAY TAKE A
PROLONGED PD BEFORE TOP/DOWN SATURATION OCCURS WITH ASSOCD
FEATURE...WITH HIEST POPS WED NIGHT. THEREAFTER COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS
RAMPS LENDING TO WHITHER OF GRTLKS SYSTEM...PER MOST MODEL CONSENSUS
SANS GFSX. AGAIN ONLY A MODEST LES RESPONSE ANTICIPATED THU/THU
NIGHT AND PERHAPS AGAIN ABOUT SAT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE/WEAK
TRANSITORY SYSTEM PSBL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR CIGS...WITH SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS TO LOWER END MVFR ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL
WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS STRONGEST LEAD
THETAE ADVECTION FORCING AND INITIAL SHORTWAVE LIFT NORTHWARD.
BREAKS IN PRECIP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. RELATIVELY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND SFC FRONT MAY EVEN YIELD AN ISOLD
THUNDER THREAT BUT WILL HOLD OFF MENTION FOR TERMINAL FORECASTS
WITH EXPECTED VERY ISOLATED NATURE. BIGGER STORY WILL BE VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD...BEGINNING IN THE 14Z TIMEFRAME.
EVEN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...INCREASED MIXING IN THE MORNING MAY
SUPPORT SOUTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS AT KFWA...WITH STRONGER
WINDS AT KSBN PERHAPS MORE DELAYED UNTIL ACTUAL WIND SHIFT AROUND
15Z WHEN GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION AT KSBN. WINDS SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 30
KNOTS AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-
     032>034.

MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/NG/JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 240247
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
947 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 621 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT CAUSING WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA ON MONDAY RESULTING IN VERY WINDY AND MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA... WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S... WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 30S ON MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY STRONG LLJ ADVANCING NE ACROSS OH THIS EVE MIXING SOME
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH
SHOULD CONT AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS WORKING OUT WELL
BUT BUMPED UP QPF EARLIER WITH 1-2" RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. LARGE AREA OF RAIN AHEAD OF LEAD NEG TILT SHRTWV
SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT... BUT SHOWERS WILL FILL
IN SHORTLY THEREAFTER...ESPECIALLY WRN PORTIONS AS FRONT AND
SECONDARY CHANNELED VORT MAX CLOSER TO MAIN UPR TROF APPROACH.
TSTMS HAVE BEEN OCRG THIS EVE OVER SRN MO IN AREA OF WK
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE FEATURES ARE FCST
TO LIFT NE ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY MORNING AS CDFNT MOVES
THROUGH... SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE FLUX
INCREASES IN THE LOW LEVELS. RAISED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN
INCH BY EARLY MONDAY. UPSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS HAVE DROPPED TO 8
MB/3HR... INDICATIVE OF A WELL/DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LAYERS AND DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. AS
FOR MONDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A VERY TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...ALTHOUGH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FEW CHANGES WRT LATEST LONG TERM PD. INTENSE SHORTWAVES WITHIN
LONGWAVE TROF FIRST LIFTING NWD FROM NERN MS WITH ADDNL ENERGY
ASSOCD UPSTREAM WITH EXIT REGION OF 140-150 KT ULVL JET TO EJECT
INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION IN NEG TILT FASHION WITH MARKED/RAPID
DEEPENING OF SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NNEWD FM ERN OK TO N OF LK SUPR
BY 18 UTC MON. CONTINUE TO FAVOR TIMING OF CHANGEOVER MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LAGGED WARM TW ALOFT TRAILING WELL BEHIND SFC FNTL ZONE
PASSAGE. HIEST POPS/QPF/SNOWFALL IN NWNR CWA IN LINE WITH STRONGEST
MID LVL DEFORMATION/DEEPER MSTR WRAPPING SFC LOW. FOLLOWED BY MODEST
LES RESPONSE WITH MID/UPPER TEENS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS TONED DOWN BY
ANEMIC SATURATION WITHIN A SHALLOW DGZ LYR. NEXT NRN STREAM WAVE
EMITTED FM ALEUTIAN VORTEX FAVORS WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD
THROUGH NRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WRN GRTLKS WED AFNT/EVE. MODERATE
I285K ISENT UPGLIDE THOUGH WITH INITIAL MSTR SOURCE VOID MAY TAKE A
PROLONGED PD BEFORE TOP/DOWN SATURATION OCCURS WITH ASSOCD
FEATURE...WITH HIEST POPS WED NIGHT. THEREAFTER COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS
RAMPS LENDING TO WHITHER OF GRTLKS SYSTEM...PER MOST MODEL CONSENSUS
SANS GFSX. AGAIN ONLY A MODEST LES RESPONSE ANTICIPATED THU/THU
NIGHT AND PERHAPS AGAIN ABOUT SAT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE/WEAK
TRANSITORY SYSTEM PSBL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER MO EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY/DEEPEN TONIGHT AS IT
LIFTS RAPIDLY NE TO NRN LWR MI. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN IN ADVANCE OF
THE LOW SHOULD CONT TO IMPACT NRN INDIANA THIS EVE WITH
PREDOMINANTLY IFR CONDITIONS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS HEAVIEST PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR NORTH... BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS AND SOME -RA CHANGING TO
-SN ON MONDAY. STRONG LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE LOW WILL LIFT NE
ACROSS OH TONIGHT BUT IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO KFWA TO CAUSE
SGFNT LLWS THREAT. SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL VEER SW AS THE
LOW PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
VERY STRONG SW-W WINDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTN. GIVEN FCST CLOUD
COVER WAS CONSERVATIVE WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 38KT... BUT 5-10KT
HIGHER THAN THAT ARE PSBL.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/
     MONDAY FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/NG/JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 232322
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
622 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 621 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT CAUSING WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA ON MONDAY RESULTING IN VERY WINDY AND MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA... WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S... WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 30S ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE FLUX
INCREASES IN THE LOW LEVELS. RAISED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN
INCH BY EARLY MONDAY. UPSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS HAVE DROPPED TO 8
MB/3HR... INDICATIVE OF A WELL/DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LAYERS AND DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. AS
FOR MONDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A VERY TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...ALTHOUGH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FEW CHANGES WRT LATEST LONG TERM PD. INTENSE SHORTWAVES WITHIN
LONGWAVE TROF FIRST LIFTING NWD FROM NERN MS WITH ADDNL ENERGY
ASSOCD UPSTREAM WITH EXIT REGION OF 140-150 KT ULVL JET TO EJECT
INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION IN NEG TILT FASHION WITH MARKED/RAPID
DEEPENING OF SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NNEWD FM ERN OK TO N OF LK SUPR
BY 18 UTC MON. CONTINUE TO FAVOR TIMING OF CHANGEOVER MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LAGGED WARM TW ALOFT TRAILING WELL BEHIND SFC FNTL ZONE
PASSAGE. HIEST POPS/QPF/SNOWFALL IN NWNR CWA IN LINE WITH STRONGEST
MID LVL DEFORMATION/DEEPER MSTR WRAPPING SFC LOW. FOLLOWED BY MODEST
LES RESPONSE WITH MID/UPPER TEENS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS TONED DOWN BY
ANEMIC SATURATION WITHIN A SHALLOW DGZ LYR. NEXT NRN STREAM WAVE
EMITTED FM ALEUTIAN VORTEX FAVORS WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD
THROUGH NRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WRN GRTLKS WED AFNT/EVE. MODERATE
I285K ISENT UPGLIDE THOUGH WITH INITIAL MSTR SOURCE VOID MAY TAKE A
PROLONGED PD BEFORE TOP/DOWN SATURATION OCCURS WITH ASSOCD
FEATURE...WITH HIEST POPS WED NIGHT. THEREAFTER COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS
RAMPS LENDING TO WHITHER OF GRTLKS SYSTEM...PER MOST MODEL CONSENSUS
SANS GFSX. AGAIN ONLY A MODEST LES RESPONSE ANTICIPATED THU/THU
NIGHT AND PERHAPS AGAIN ABOUT SAT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE/WEAK
TRANSITORY SYSTEM PSBL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER MO EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY/DEEPEN TONIGHT AS IT
LIFTS RAPIDLY NE TO NRN LWR MI. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN IN ADVANCE OF
THE LOW SHOULD CONT TO IMPACT NRN INDIANA THIS EVE WITH
PREDOMINANTLY IFR CONDITIONS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS HEAVIEST PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR NORTH... BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS AND SOME -RA CHANGING TO
-SN ON MONDAY. STRONG LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE LOW WILL LIFT NE
ACROSS OH TONIGHT BUT IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO KFWA TO CAUSE
SGFNT LLWS THREAT. SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL VEER SW AS THE
LOW PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
VERY STRONG SW-W WINDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTN. GIVEN FCST CLOUD
COVER WAS CONSERVATIVE WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 38KT... BUT 5-10KT
HIGHER THAN THAT ARE PSBL.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/
     MONDAY FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/NG/JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 232114
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
414 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG
WITH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE FLUX
INCREASES IN THE LOW LEVELS. RAISED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN
INCH BY EARLY MONDAY. UPSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS HAVE DROPPED TO 8
MB/3HR... INDICATIVE OF A WELL/DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LAYERS AND DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. AS
FOR MONDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A VERY TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...ALTHOUGH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FEW CHANGES WRT LATEST LONG TERM PD. INTENSE SHORTWAVES WITHIN
LONGWAVE TROF FIRST LIFTING NWD FROM NERN MS WITH ADDNL ENERGY
ASSOCD UPSTREAM WITH EXIT REGION OF 140-150 KT ULVL JET TO EJECT
INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION IN NEG TILT FASHION WITH MARKED/RAPID
DEEPENING OF SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NNEWD FM ERN OK TO N OF LK SUPR
BY 18 UTC MON. CONTINUE TO FAVOR TIMING OF CHANGEOVER MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LAGGED WARM TW ALOFT TRAILING WELL BEHIND SFC FNTL ZONE
PASSAGE. HIEST POPS/QPF/SNOWFALL IN NWNR CWA IN LINE WITH STRONGEST
MID LVL DEFORMATION/DEEPER MSTR WRAPPING SFC LOW. FOLLOWED BY MODEST
LES RESPONSE WITH MID/UPPER TEENS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS TONED DOWN BY
ANEMIC SATURATION WITHIN A SHALLOW DGZ LYR. NEXT NRN STREAM WAVE
EMITTED FM ALEUTIAN VORTEX FAVORS WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD
THROUGH NRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WRN GRTLKS WED AFNT/EVE. MODERATE
I285K ISENT UPGLIDE THOUGH WITH INITIAL MSTR SOURCE VOID MAY TAKE A
PROLONGED PD BEFORE TOP/DOWN SATURATION OCCURS WITH ASSOCD
FEATURE...WITH HIEST POPS WED NIGHT. THEREAFTER COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS
RAMPS LENDING TO WHITHER OF GRTLKS SYSTEM...PER MOST MODEL CONSENSUS
SANS GFSX. AGAIN ONLY A MODEST LES RESPONSE ANTICIPATED THU/THU
NIGHT AND PERHAPS AGAIN ABOUT SAT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE/WEAK
TRANSITORY SYSTEM PSBL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE EXIT REGION OF A VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES IN THE
LOW LEVELS. ADDED TEMPO HEAVY RAIN AT BOTH SBN AND FWA IN THIS
REGARD. ALSO...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS A VERY
TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/
     MONDAY FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/NG
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 232114
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
414 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG
WITH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE FLUX
INCREASES IN THE LOW LEVELS. RAISED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN
INCH BY EARLY MONDAY. UPSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS HAVE DROPPED TO 8
MB/3HR... INDICATIVE OF A WELL/DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LAYERS AND DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. AS
FOR MONDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A VERY TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...ALTHOUGH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FEW CHANGES WRT LATEST LONG TERM PD. INTENSE SHORTWAVES WITHIN
LONGWAVE TROF FIRST LIFTING NWD FROM NERN MS WITH ADDNL ENERGY
ASSOCD UPSTREAM WITH EXIT REGION OF 140-150 KT ULVL JET TO EJECT
INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION IN NEG TILT FASHION WITH MARKED/RAPID
DEEPENING OF SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NNEWD FM ERN OK TO N OF LK SUPR
BY 18 UTC MON. CONTINUE TO FAVOR TIMING OF CHANGEOVER MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LAGGED WARM TW ALOFT TRAILING WELL BEHIND SFC FNTL ZONE
PASSAGE. HIEST POPS/QPF/SNOWFALL IN NWNR CWA IN LINE WITH STRONGEST
MID LVL DEFORMATION/DEEPER MSTR WRAPPING SFC LOW. FOLLOWED BY MODEST
LES RESPONSE WITH MID/UPPER TEENS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS TONED DOWN BY
ANEMIC SATURATION WITHIN A SHALLOW DGZ LYR. NEXT NRN STREAM WAVE
EMITTED FM ALEUTIAN VORTEX FAVORS WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD
THROUGH NRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WRN GRTLKS WED AFNT/EVE. MODERATE
I285K ISENT UPGLIDE THOUGH WITH INITIAL MSTR SOURCE VOID MAY TAKE A
PROLONGED PD BEFORE TOP/DOWN SATURATION OCCURS WITH ASSOCD
FEATURE...WITH HIEST POPS WED NIGHT. THEREAFTER COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS
RAMPS LENDING TO WHITHER OF GRTLKS SYSTEM...PER MOST MODEL CONSENSUS
SANS GFSX. AGAIN ONLY A MODEST LES RESPONSE ANTICIPATED THU/THU
NIGHT AND PERHAPS AGAIN ABOUT SAT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE/WEAK
TRANSITORY SYSTEM PSBL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE EXIT REGION OF A VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES IN THE
LOW LEVELS. ADDED TEMPO HEAVY RAIN AT BOTH SBN AND FWA IN THIS
REGARD. ALSO...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS A VERY
TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/
     MONDAY FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/NG
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 231941
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
241 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG
WITH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST ITEMS TO ADDRESS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
ONGOING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF 900-750 HPA MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN THAT HAS AFFECTED PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA DURING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
PROGS SUGGEST THAT MAGNITUDE OF THIS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
IDEA IS SUPPORTED WELL IN HIGHER RES ARW/NMM OUTPUT THIS MORNING.
THUS WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH A FAIRLY STEADY DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. DAYBREAK SHOULD ALSO MARK THE APPROXIMATE TIME WEAK VORT
MAX EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THUS...STILL EXPECTING A SIZABLE LULL IN
GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING.

BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. INITIAL HIGHER
POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW
ZONE AND DEPEND ON EXACT POSITIONING OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER...TOWARD EVENING...GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT INCREASING AS SMALLER SCALE
UPPER VORT MAX TRACKS INTO OHIO VALLEY...AND LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH WORKS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ALSO
SHOULD TEND TO AID IN EXPANDING RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO CHANGE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH SOME RESPECTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
22Z-06Z TIMEFRAME AS STRONGER UVM SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE. POCKET OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
LARGER SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

GIVEN STRONG LLJ/UPPER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...REALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD THUNDER ANY TIME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY LOW FOR
ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE VERY LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD SETUP
POCKET OF WEAK INSTABILITY FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES....HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE
TO CONTINUED WAA/LLJ/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON PTYPE/STRONG WINDS/FALLING TEMPS WITH DYNAMIC
PHASED LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY-MONDAY
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY CHILLY/DRIER THEREAFTER...

00Z GUIDANCE OVERALL PICKING UP ON STRONGER SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.
THE RESULT HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST DEFORMATION/FGEN
AXIS LIFTING NE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES MON-MON EVE
AS THIS JET COUPLING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITHIN THIS BURGEONING DEFORMATION AXIS MON
AFTN. FAVORED ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PIVOT INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SW LOWER MI THANKS TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD IMPINGE ON SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
SUPPORTING A DOWNTREND IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...WITH
LATER CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES (LITTLE TO NO ACCUM)
DELAYED TO LATE MON EVE HERE AS PRIMARY HEIGHT FALL AXIS SETTLES IN.
HEADLINE WORTHY WIND GUSTS (>45 MPH) ALSO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATER MON MORNING-AFTN. STILL CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW DEEP SFC REFLECTION WILL
BE ONCE REACHING THE NRN LAKES...RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY.
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF MIXED LAYER IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLD ADVECTION PROCESS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TAP INTO
40-50 KT 900 MB JET CORE (LOW CONFIDENCE).

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES AS 850
MB DELTA T`S DROP INTO THE MID TEENS. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO LOWER
AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW IS EXPECTED WED THRU SAT...BUT EXPECT THE LOCAL
AREA TO MAINLY REMAIN ON COLD SIDE OF A PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY
BAROCLINIC ZONE...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. SEVERAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH IN
THIS FLOW...ONE LATER WED-THU AM AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE TOWARD END OF
PERIOD...BRINGING A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW AND RENEWED
LAKE RESPONSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE EXIT REGION OF A VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES IN THE
LOW LEVELS. ADDED TEMPO HEAVY RAIN AT BOTH SBN AND FWA IN THIS
REGARD. ALSO...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS A VERY
TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE AREA.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/NG
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 231941
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
241 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG
WITH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST ITEMS TO ADDRESS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
ONGOING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF 900-750 HPA MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN THAT HAS AFFECTED PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA DURING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
PROGS SUGGEST THAT MAGNITUDE OF THIS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
IDEA IS SUPPORTED WELL IN HIGHER RES ARW/NMM OUTPUT THIS MORNING.
THUS WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH A FAIRLY STEADY DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. DAYBREAK SHOULD ALSO MARK THE APPROXIMATE TIME WEAK VORT
MAX EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THUS...STILL EXPECTING A SIZABLE LULL IN
GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING.

BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. INITIAL HIGHER
POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW
ZONE AND DEPEND ON EXACT POSITIONING OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER...TOWARD EVENING...GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT INCREASING AS SMALLER SCALE
UPPER VORT MAX TRACKS INTO OHIO VALLEY...AND LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH WORKS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ALSO
SHOULD TEND TO AID IN EXPANDING RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO CHANGE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH SOME RESPECTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
22Z-06Z TIMEFRAME AS STRONGER UVM SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE. POCKET OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
LARGER SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

GIVEN STRONG LLJ/UPPER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...REALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD THUNDER ANY TIME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY LOW FOR
ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE VERY LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD SETUP
POCKET OF WEAK INSTABILITY FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES....HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE
TO CONTINUED WAA/LLJ/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON PTYPE/STRONG WINDS/FALLING TEMPS WITH DYNAMIC
PHASED LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY-MONDAY
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY CHILLY/DRIER THEREAFTER...

00Z GUIDANCE OVERALL PICKING UP ON STRONGER SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.
THE RESULT HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST DEFORMATION/FGEN
AXIS LIFTING NE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES MON-MON EVE
AS THIS JET COUPLING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITHIN THIS BURGEONING DEFORMATION AXIS MON
AFTN. FAVORED ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PIVOT INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SW LOWER MI THANKS TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD IMPINGE ON SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
SUPPORTING A DOWNTREND IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...WITH
LATER CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES (LITTLE TO NO ACCUM)
DELAYED TO LATE MON EVE HERE AS PRIMARY HEIGHT FALL AXIS SETTLES IN.
HEADLINE WORTHY WIND GUSTS (>45 MPH) ALSO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATER MON MORNING-AFTN. STILL CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW DEEP SFC REFLECTION WILL
BE ONCE REACHING THE NRN LAKES...RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY.
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF MIXED LAYER IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLD ADVECTION PROCESS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TAP INTO
40-50 KT 900 MB JET CORE (LOW CONFIDENCE).

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES AS 850
MB DELTA T`S DROP INTO THE MID TEENS. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO LOWER
AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW IS EXPECTED WED THRU SAT...BUT EXPECT THE LOCAL
AREA TO MAINLY REMAIN ON COLD SIDE OF A PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY
BAROCLINIC ZONE...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. SEVERAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH IN
THIS FLOW...ONE LATER WED-THU AM AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE TOWARD END OF
PERIOD...BRINGING A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW AND RENEWED
LAKE RESPONSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE EXIT REGION OF A VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES IN THE
LOW LEVELS. ADDED TEMPO HEAVY RAIN AT BOTH SBN AND FWA IN THIS
REGARD. ALSO...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS A VERY
TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE AREA.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/NG
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 231814
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
114 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY
AND WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH MAINLY INTO THE MID
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST ITEMS TO ADDRESS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
ONGOING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF 900-750 HPA MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN THAT HAS AFFECTED PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA DURING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
PROGS SUGGEST THAT MAGNITUDE OF THIS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
IDEA IS SUPPORTED WELL IN HIGHER RES ARW/NMM OUTPUT THIS MORNING.
THUS WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH A FAIRLY STEADY DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. DAYBREAK SHOULD ALSO MARK THE APPROXIMATE TIME WEAK VORT
MAX EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THUS...STILL EXPECTING A SIZABLE LULL IN
GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING.

BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. INITIAL HIGHER
POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW
ZONE AND DEPEND ON EXACT POSITIONING OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER...TOWARD EVENING...GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT INCREASING AS SMALLER SCALE
UPPER VORT MAX TRACKS INTO OHIO VALLEY...AND LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH WORKS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ALSO
SHOULD TEND TO AID IN EXPANDING RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO CHANGE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH SOME RESPECTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
22Z-06Z TIMEFRAME AS STRONGER UVM SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE. POCKET OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
LARGER SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

GIVEN STRONG LLJ/UPPER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...REALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD THUNDER ANY TIME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY LOW FOR
ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE VERY LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD SETUP
POCKET OF WEAK INSTABILITY FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES....HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE
TO CONTINUED WAA/LLJ/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON PTYPE/STRONG WINDS/FALLING TEMPS WITH DYNAMIC
PHASED LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY-MONDAY
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY CHILLY/DRIER THEREAFTER...

00Z GUIDANCE OVERALL PICKING UP ON STRONGER SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.
THE RESULT HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST DEFORMATION/FGEN
AXIS LIFTING NE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES MON-MON EVE
AS THIS JET COUPLING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITHIN THIS BURGEONING DEFORMATION AXIS MON
AFTN. FAVORED ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PIVOT INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SW LOWER MI THANKS TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD IMPINGE ON SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
SUPPORTING A DOWNTREND IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...WITH
LATER CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES (LITTLE TO NO ACCUM)
DELAYED TO LATE MON EVE HERE AS PRIMARY HEIGHT FALL AXIS SETTLES IN.
HEADLINE WORTHY WIND GUSTS (>45 MPH) ALSO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATER MON MORNING-AFTN. STILL CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW DEEP SFC REFLECTION WILL
BE ONCE REACHING THE NRN LAKES...RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY.
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF MIXED LAYER IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLD ADVECTION PROCESS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TAP INTO
40-50 KT 900 MB JET CORE (LOW CONFIDENCE).

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES AS 850
MB DELTA T`S DROP INTO THE MID TEENS. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO LOWER
AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW IS EXPECTED WED THRU SAT...BUT EXPECT THE LOCAL
AREA TO MAINLY REMAIN ON COLD SIDE OF A PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY
BAROCLINIC ZONE...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. SEVERAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH IN
THIS FLOW...ONE LATER WED-THU AM AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE TOWARD END OF
PERIOD...BRINGING A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW AND RENEWED
LAKE RESPONSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE EXIT REGION OF A VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES IN THE
LOW LEVELS. ADDED TEMPO HEAVY RAIN AT BOTH SBN AND FWA IN THIS
REGARD. ALSO...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS A VERY
TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 231814
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
114 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY
AND WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH MAINLY INTO THE MID
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST ITEMS TO ADDRESS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
ONGOING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF 900-750 HPA MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN THAT HAS AFFECTED PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA DURING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
PROGS SUGGEST THAT MAGNITUDE OF THIS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
IDEA IS SUPPORTED WELL IN HIGHER RES ARW/NMM OUTPUT THIS MORNING.
THUS WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH A FAIRLY STEADY DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. DAYBREAK SHOULD ALSO MARK THE APPROXIMATE TIME WEAK VORT
MAX EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THUS...STILL EXPECTING A SIZABLE LULL IN
GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING.

BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. INITIAL HIGHER
POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW
ZONE AND DEPEND ON EXACT POSITIONING OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER...TOWARD EVENING...GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT INCREASING AS SMALLER SCALE
UPPER VORT MAX TRACKS INTO OHIO VALLEY...AND LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH WORKS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ALSO
SHOULD TEND TO AID IN EXPANDING RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO CHANGE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH SOME RESPECTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
22Z-06Z TIMEFRAME AS STRONGER UVM SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE. POCKET OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
LARGER SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

GIVEN STRONG LLJ/UPPER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...REALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD THUNDER ANY TIME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY LOW FOR
ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE VERY LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD SETUP
POCKET OF WEAK INSTABILITY FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES....HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE
TO CONTINUED WAA/LLJ/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON PTYPE/STRONG WINDS/FALLING TEMPS WITH DYNAMIC
PHASED LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY-MONDAY
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY CHILLY/DRIER THEREAFTER...

00Z GUIDANCE OVERALL PICKING UP ON STRONGER SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.
THE RESULT HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST DEFORMATION/FGEN
AXIS LIFTING NE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES MON-MON EVE
AS THIS JET COUPLING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITHIN THIS BURGEONING DEFORMATION AXIS MON
AFTN. FAVORED ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PIVOT INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SW LOWER MI THANKS TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD IMPINGE ON SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
SUPPORTING A DOWNTREND IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...WITH
LATER CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES (LITTLE TO NO ACCUM)
DELAYED TO LATE MON EVE HERE AS PRIMARY HEIGHT FALL AXIS SETTLES IN.
HEADLINE WORTHY WIND GUSTS (>45 MPH) ALSO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATER MON MORNING-AFTN. STILL CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW DEEP SFC REFLECTION WILL
BE ONCE REACHING THE NRN LAKES...RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY.
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF MIXED LAYER IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLD ADVECTION PROCESS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TAP INTO
40-50 KT 900 MB JET CORE (LOW CONFIDENCE).

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES AS 850
MB DELTA T`S DROP INTO THE MID TEENS. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO LOWER
AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW IS EXPECTED WED THRU SAT...BUT EXPECT THE LOCAL
AREA TO MAINLY REMAIN ON COLD SIDE OF A PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY
BAROCLINIC ZONE...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. SEVERAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH IN
THIS FLOW...ONE LATER WED-THU AM AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE TOWARD END OF
PERIOD...BRINGING A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW AND RENEWED
LAKE RESPONSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE EXIT REGION OF A VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES IN THE
LOW LEVELS. ADDED TEMPO HEAVY RAIN AT BOTH SBN AND FWA IN THIS
REGARD. ALSO...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS A VERY
TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 231150
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
650 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY
AND WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH MAINLY INTO THE MID
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST ITEMS TO ADDRESS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
ONGOING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF 900-750 HPA MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN THAT HAS AFFECTED PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA DURING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
PROGS SUGGEST THAT MAGNITUDE OF THIS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
IDEA IS SUPPORTED WELL IN HIGHER RES ARW/NMM OUTPUT THIS MORNING.
THUS WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH A FAIRLY STEADY DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. DAYBREAK SHOULD ALSO MARK THE APPROXIMATE TIME WEAK VORT
MAX EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THUS...STILL EXPECTING A SIZABLE LULL IN
GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING.

BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. INITIAL HIGHER
POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW
ZONE AND DEPEND ON EXACT POSITIONING OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER...TOWARD EVENING...GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT INCREASING AS SMALLER SCALE
UPPER VORT MAX TRACKS INTO OHIO VALLEY...AND LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH WORKS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ALSO
SHOULD TEND TO AID IN EXPANDING RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO CHANGE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH SOME RESPECTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
22Z-06Z TIMEFRAME AS STRONGER UVM SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE. POCKET OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
LARGER SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

GIVEN STRONG LLJ/UPPER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...REALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD THUNDER ANY TIME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY LOW FOR
ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE VERY LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD SETUP
POCKET OF WEAK INSTABILITY FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES....HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE
TO CONTINUED WAA/LLJ/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON PTYPE/STRONG WINDS/FALLING TEMPS WITH DYNAMIC
PHASED LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY-MONDAY
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY CHILLY/DRIER THEREAFTER...

00Z GUIDANCE OVERALL PICKING UP ON STRONGER SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.
THE RESULT HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST DEFORMATION/FGEN
AXIS LIFTING NE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES MON-MON EVE
AS THIS JET COUPLING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITHIN THIS BURGEONING DEFORMATION AXIS MON
AFTN. FAVORED ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PIVOT INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SW LOWER MI THANKS TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD IMPINGE ON SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
SUPPORTING A DOWNTREND IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...WITH
LATER CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES (LITTLE TO NO ACCUM)
DELAYED TO LATE MON EVE HERE AS PRIMARY HEIGHT FALL AXIS SETTLES IN.
HEADLINE WORTHY WIND GUSTS (>45 MPH) ALSO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATER MON MORNING-AFTN. STILL CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW DEEP SFC REFLECTION WILL
BE ONCE REACHING THE NRN LAKES...RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY.
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF MIXED LAYER IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLD ADVECTION PROCESS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TAP INTO
40-50 KT 900 MB JET CORE (LOW CONFIDENCE).

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES AS 850
MB DELTA T`S DROP INTO THE MID TEENS. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO LOWER
AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW IS EXPECTED WED THRU SAT...BUT EXPECT THE LOCAL
AREA TO MAINLY REMAIN ON COLD SIDE OF A PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY
BAROCLINIC ZONE...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. SEVERAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH IN
THIS FLOW...ONE LATER WED-THU AM AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE TOWARD END OF
PERIOD...BRINGING A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW AND RENEWED
LAKE RESPONSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. AS THIS
OCCURS...STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WHICH AIDED
BETTER RAIN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALSO SHIFT
EASTWARD...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING RAIN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS LULL SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH JUST
SOME ISOLATED OR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED. A MORE POTENT
SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING
NORTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
AFFECTING TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAINS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO REFRAIN FROM ANY MENTION IN TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS
TIME. TREND TO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY TOWARD 00Z. IFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY AT BOTH TERMINALS TONIGHT AS SFC WARM LIFTS INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL COME INCREASED LLWS
POTENTIAL BY 00Z AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS MENTION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 231150
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
650 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY
AND WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH MAINLY INTO THE MID
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST ITEMS TO ADDRESS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
ONGOING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF 900-750 HPA MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN THAT HAS AFFECTED PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA DURING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
PROGS SUGGEST THAT MAGNITUDE OF THIS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
IDEA IS SUPPORTED WELL IN HIGHER RES ARW/NMM OUTPUT THIS MORNING.
THUS WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH A FAIRLY STEADY DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. DAYBREAK SHOULD ALSO MARK THE APPROXIMATE TIME WEAK VORT
MAX EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THUS...STILL EXPECTING A SIZABLE LULL IN
GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING.

BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. INITIAL HIGHER
POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW
ZONE AND DEPEND ON EXACT POSITIONING OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER...TOWARD EVENING...GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT INCREASING AS SMALLER SCALE
UPPER VORT MAX TRACKS INTO OHIO VALLEY...AND LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH WORKS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ALSO
SHOULD TEND TO AID IN EXPANDING RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO CHANGE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH SOME RESPECTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
22Z-06Z TIMEFRAME AS STRONGER UVM SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE. POCKET OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
LARGER SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

GIVEN STRONG LLJ/UPPER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...REALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD THUNDER ANY TIME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY LOW FOR
ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE VERY LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD SETUP
POCKET OF WEAK INSTABILITY FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES....HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE
TO CONTINUED WAA/LLJ/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON PTYPE/STRONG WINDS/FALLING TEMPS WITH DYNAMIC
PHASED LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY-MONDAY
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY CHILLY/DRIER THEREAFTER...

00Z GUIDANCE OVERALL PICKING UP ON STRONGER SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.
THE RESULT HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST DEFORMATION/FGEN
AXIS LIFTING NE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES MON-MON EVE
AS THIS JET COUPLING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITHIN THIS BURGEONING DEFORMATION AXIS MON
AFTN. FAVORED ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PIVOT INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SW LOWER MI THANKS TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD IMPINGE ON SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
SUPPORTING A DOWNTREND IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...WITH
LATER CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES (LITTLE TO NO ACCUM)
DELAYED TO LATE MON EVE HERE AS PRIMARY HEIGHT FALL AXIS SETTLES IN.
HEADLINE WORTHY WIND GUSTS (>45 MPH) ALSO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATER MON MORNING-AFTN. STILL CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW DEEP SFC REFLECTION WILL
BE ONCE REACHING THE NRN LAKES...RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY.
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF MIXED LAYER IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLD ADVECTION PROCESS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TAP INTO
40-50 KT 900 MB JET CORE (LOW CONFIDENCE).

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES AS 850
MB DELTA T`S DROP INTO THE MID TEENS. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO LOWER
AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW IS EXPECTED WED THRU SAT...BUT EXPECT THE LOCAL
AREA TO MAINLY REMAIN ON COLD SIDE OF A PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY
BAROCLINIC ZONE...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. SEVERAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH IN
THIS FLOW...ONE LATER WED-THU AM AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE TOWARD END OF
PERIOD...BRINGING A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW AND RENEWED
LAKE RESPONSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. AS THIS
OCCURS...STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WHICH AIDED
BETTER RAIN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALSO SHIFT
EASTWARD...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING RAIN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS LULL SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH JUST
SOME ISOLATED OR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED. A MORE POTENT
SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING
NORTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
AFFECTING TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAINS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO REFRAIN FROM ANY MENTION IN TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS
TIME. TREND TO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY TOWARD 00Z. IFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY AT BOTH TERMINALS TONIGHT AS SFC WARM LIFTS INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL COME INCREASED LLWS
POTENTIAL BY 00Z AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS MENTION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 230919
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
419 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY
AND WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH MAINLY INTO THE MID
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST ITEMS TO ADDRESS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
ONGOING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF 900-750 HPA MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN THAT HAS AFFECTED PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA DURING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
PROGS SUGGEST THAT MAGNITUDE OF THIS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
IDEA IS SUPPORTED WELL IN HIGHER RES ARW/NMM OUTPUT THIS MORNING.
THUS WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH A FAIRLY STEADY DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. DAYBREAK SHOULD ALSO MARK THE APPROXIMATE TIME WEAK VORT
MAX EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THUS...STILL EXPECTING A SIZABLE LULL IN
GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING.

BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. INITIAL HIGHER
POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW
ZONE AND DEPEND ON EXACT POSITIONING OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER...TOWARD EVENING...GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT INCREASING AS SMALLER SCALE
UPPER VORT MAX TRACKS INTO OHIO VALLEY...AND LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH WORKS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ALSO
SHOULD TEND TO AID IN EXPANDING RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO CHANGE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH SOME RESPECTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
22Z-06Z TIMEFRAME AS STRONGER UVM SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE. POCKET OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
LARGER SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

GIVEN STRONG LLJ/UPPER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...REALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD THUNDER ANY TIME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY LOW FOR
ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE VERY LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD SETUP
POCKET OF WEAK INSTABILITY FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES....HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE
TO CONTINUED WAA/LLJ/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON PTYPE/STRONG WINDS/FALLING TEMPS WITH DYNAMIC
PHASED LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY-MONDAY
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY CHILLY/DRIER THEREAFTER...

00Z GUIDANCE OVERALL PICKING UP ON STRONGER SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.
THE RESULT HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST DEFORMATION/FGEN
AXIS LIFTING NE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES MON-MON EVE
AS THIS JET COUPLING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITHIN THIS BURGEONING DEFORMATION AXIS MON
AFTN. FAVORED ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PIVOT INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SW LOWER MI THANKS TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD IMPINGE ON SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
SUPPORTING A DOWNTREND IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...WITH
LATER CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES (LITTLE TO NO ACCUM)
DELAYED TO LATE MON EVE HERE AS PRIMARY HEIGHT FALL AXIS SETTLES IN.
HEADLINE WORTHY WIND GUSTS (>45 MPH) ALSO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATER MON MORNING-AFTN. STILL CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW DEEP SFC REFLECTION WILL
BE ONCE REACHING THE NRN LAKES...RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY.
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF MIXED LAYER IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLD ADVECTION PROCESS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TAP INTO
40-50 KT 900 MB JET CORE (LOW CONFIDENCE).

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES AS 850
MB DELTA T`S DROP INTO THE MID TEENS. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO LOWER
AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW IS EXPECTED WED THRU SAT...BUT EXPECT THE LOCAL
AREA TO MAINLY REMAIN ON COLD SIDE OF A PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY
BAROCLINIC ZONE...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. SEVERAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH IN
THIS FLOW...ONE LATER WED-THU AM AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE TOWARD END OF
PERIOD...BRINGING A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW AND RENEWED
LAKE RESPONSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE HAS ALLOWED FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST INDIANA. EXPECTING KFWA TO EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HOURS OF
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING. STILL EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO AFFECT KSBN AFTER THE
08Z-09Z PERIOD ALTHOUGH MAY BE MORE OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS NATURE
AS OPPOSED TO WIDESPREAD. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT KSBN THROUGH OF THE NIGHT ALSO. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KNOTS IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADING TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HAVE
OMITTED ANY TS MENTION ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW END PROB MAY EXIST FOR
ISOLD TSRA AFTER 00Z. AFTER A FEW MORE HOURS OF LLWS MENTION TO
BEGIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WILL REINTRODUCE THIS MENTION TO
COVER THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE FURTHER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BEFORE
SFC WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 230919
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
419 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY
AND WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH MAINLY INTO THE MID
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST ITEMS TO ADDRESS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
ONGOING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF 900-750 HPA MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN THAT HAS AFFECTED PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA DURING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
PROGS SUGGEST THAT MAGNITUDE OF THIS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
IDEA IS SUPPORTED WELL IN HIGHER RES ARW/NMM OUTPUT THIS MORNING.
THUS WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH A FAIRLY STEADY DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. DAYBREAK SHOULD ALSO MARK THE APPROXIMATE TIME WEAK VORT
MAX EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THUS...STILL EXPECTING A SIZABLE LULL IN
GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING.

BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. INITIAL HIGHER
POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW
ZONE AND DEPEND ON EXACT POSITIONING OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER...TOWARD EVENING...GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT INCREASING AS SMALLER SCALE
UPPER VORT MAX TRACKS INTO OHIO VALLEY...AND LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH WORKS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ALSO
SHOULD TEND TO AID IN EXPANDING RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO CHANGE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH SOME RESPECTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
22Z-06Z TIMEFRAME AS STRONGER UVM SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE. POCKET OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
LARGER SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

GIVEN STRONG LLJ/UPPER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...REALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD THUNDER ANY TIME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY LOW FOR
ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE VERY LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD SETUP
POCKET OF WEAK INSTABILITY FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES....HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE
TO CONTINUED WAA/LLJ/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON PTYPE/STRONG WINDS/FALLING TEMPS WITH DYNAMIC
PHASED LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY-MONDAY
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY CHILLY/DRIER THEREAFTER...

00Z GUIDANCE OVERALL PICKING UP ON STRONGER SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.
THE RESULT HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST DEFORMATION/FGEN
AXIS LIFTING NE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES MON-MON EVE
AS THIS JET COUPLING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITHIN THIS BURGEONING DEFORMATION AXIS MON
AFTN. FAVORED ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PIVOT INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SW LOWER MI THANKS TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD IMPINGE ON SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
SUPPORTING A DOWNTREND IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...WITH
LATER CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES (LITTLE TO NO ACCUM)
DELAYED TO LATE MON EVE HERE AS PRIMARY HEIGHT FALL AXIS SETTLES IN.
HEADLINE WORTHY WIND GUSTS (>45 MPH) ALSO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATER MON MORNING-AFTN. STILL CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW DEEP SFC REFLECTION WILL
BE ONCE REACHING THE NRN LAKES...RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY.
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF MIXED LAYER IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLD ADVECTION PROCESS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TAP INTO
40-50 KT 900 MB JET CORE (LOW CONFIDENCE).

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES AS 850
MB DELTA T`S DROP INTO THE MID TEENS. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO LOWER
AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW IS EXPECTED WED THRU SAT...BUT EXPECT THE LOCAL
AREA TO MAINLY REMAIN ON COLD SIDE OF A PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY
BAROCLINIC ZONE...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. SEVERAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH IN
THIS FLOW...ONE LATER WED-THU AM AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE TOWARD END OF
PERIOD...BRINGING A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW AND RENEWED
LAKE RESPONSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE HAS ALLOWED FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST INDIANA. EXPECTING KFWA TO EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HOURS OF
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING. STILL EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO AFFECT KSBN AFTER THE
08Z-09Z PERIOD ALTHOUGH MAY BE MORE OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS NATURE
AS OPPOSED TO WIDESPREAD. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT KSBN THROUGH OF THE NIGHT ALSO. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KNOTS IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADING TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HAVE
OMITTED ANY TS MENTION ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW END PROB MAY EXIST FOR
ISOLD TSRA AFTER 00Z. AFTER A FEW MORE HOURS OF LLWS MENTION TO
BEGIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WILL REINTRODUCE THIS MENTION TO
COVER THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE FURTHER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BEFORE
SFC WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 230554
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1254 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S... WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPS OVER OUR AREA HOLDING STEADY THIS EVE AS FAIRLY STRONG WAA
CONTS. AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING ENE TOWARD SWRN PORTION OF CWA IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WK SHRTWV LIFTING ENE THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY. AS THIS MOVES IN TEMPS MAY FALL A BIT... BUT OVERALL GOING
MINS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE TOO LOW. UPDATED TO RAISE A CATEGORY
INTO THE M-U40S WITH SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD AIR WAS OVERRIDING THE
COOLER AIR. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PER 12 KM NAM. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ICE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WRT ONGOING FORECAST. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/PLUME ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
FROM ARKLATEX 12 UTC SUN TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN EVE. 8 G/KG
1000-850 MB LAYER A BIT FARTHER NWD...NOW LAPPING AT SRN CWA SUN
NIGHT WITH PIVOT POINT OVR SERN CWA INADVOF SFC BNDRY MON AM. DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FORTIFIED BY INTENSE 150-200M/12 HR HFC LIFTING NWD
THROUGH CWA SUN NIGHT EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH AREA OF ENHANCED QPF
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA. ALSO GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF SFC FNT AND AVAILABLE MSTR HAVE RAMPED POPS SOMEWHAT INTO MON AM
AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN DY3 AFTN POPS AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
INTO CWA FM SW. EXTREME 25MB/3 HR CROSS FRONTAL FALL/RISE COUPLET
ALONG WITH QUICKLY RAMPING WRLY 60-70 KT 925 GEO FLOW PORTENDS TO
NEEDING HIR GUSTS ESPCLY ALONG LAKESHORE WITH GALE WATCH NEEDED FOR
NSH WATERS...HOLDING GUST BLO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM FOR
BERRIEN/LAPORTE. WHILE SFC FNTL TIMING CONSENSUS NUDGES A BIT
QUICKER...MAINTAINED PRIOR PTYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING GIVEN NEGATIVE
ICE INTRODUCTION WITH DRY SLOT...AND DEEPENING OF COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER STILL APPROPRIATELY LAGGED.
THEREAFTER...MODEST LES RESPONSE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING
NEWD TO CANADIAN WITH BEST FOCUS TUE...WANING INTO TUE NIGHT. LES
PARAMETERS CONT TO PRESENT RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH LK/8H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS...UNIMPRESSIVE SUPERSATURATION
AND DEPTH/COHESION OF DGZ...TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. MODELS DIVERGE
ON MAINTENANCE OF VIGORED SHORTWAVE PER WV IMAGERY NEAR
50N/140W...FAVOR ECMWF WITH MORE RECOGNIZABLE CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
WRN GRTLKS FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WED AFTN/NIGHT. AGAIN MINOR LES
INTO THU WITH PRIMARY FOCUS LEANING TO COASTAL CYCLONGENESIS OFF ERN
COAST OF FLA AS LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS OVR CNTL CONUS...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE HAS ALLOWED FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST INDIANA. EXPECTING KFWA TO EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HOURS OF
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING. STILL EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO AFFECT KSBN AFTER THE
08Z-09Z PERIOD ALTHOUGH MAY BE MORE OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS NATURE
AS OPPOSED TO WIDESPREAD. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT KSBN THROUGH OF THE NIGHT ALSO. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KNOTS IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADING TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HAVE
OMITTED ANY TS MENTION ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW END PROB MAY EXIST FOR
ISOLD TSRA AFTER 00Z. AFTER A FEW MORE HOURS OF LLWS MENTION TO
BEGIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WILL REINTRODUCE THIS MENTION TO
COVER THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE FURTHER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BEFORE
SFC WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 230554
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1254 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S... WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPS OVER OUR AREA HOLDING STEADY THIS EVE AS FAIRLY STRONG WAA
CONTS. AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING ENE TOWARD SWRN PORTION OF CWA IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WK SHRTWV LIFTING ENE THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY. AS THIS MOVES IN TEMPS MAY FALL A BIT... BUT OVERALL GOING
MINS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE TOO LOW. UPDATED TO RAISE A CATEGORY
INTO THE M-U40S WITH SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD AIR WAS OVERRIDING THE
COOLER AIR. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PER 12 KM NAM. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ICE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WRT ONGOING FORECAST. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/PLUME ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
FROM ARKLATEX 12 UTC SUN TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN EVE. 8 G/KG
1000-850 MB LAYER A BIT FARTHER NWD...NOW LAPPING AT SRN CWA SUN
NIGHT WITH PIVOT POINT OVR SERN CWA INADVOF SFC BNDRY MON AM. DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FORTIFIED BY INTENSE 150-200M/12 HR HFC LIFTING NWD
THROUGH CWA SUN NIGHT EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH AREA OF ENHANCED QPF
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA. ALSO GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF SFC FNT AND AVAILABLE MSTR HAVE RAMPED POPS SOMEWHAT INTO MON AM
AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN DY3 AFTN POPS AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
INTO CWA FM SW. EXTREME 25MB/3 HR CROSS FRONTAL FALL/RISE COUPLET
ALONG WITH QUICKLY RAMPING WRLY 60-70 KT 925 GEO FLOW PORTENDS TO
NEEDING HIR GUSTS ESPCLY ALONG LAKESHORE WITH GALE WATCH NEEDED FOR
NSH WATERS...HOLDING GUST BLO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM FOR
BERRIEN/LAPORTE. WHILE SFC FNTL TIMING CONSENSUS NUDGES A BIT
QUICKER...MAINTAINED PRIOR PTYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING GIVEN NEGATIVE
ICE INTRODUCTION WITH DRY SLOT...AND DEEPENING OF COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER STILL APPROPRIATELY LAGGED.
THEREAFTER...MODEST LES RESPONSE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING
NEWD TO CANADIAN WITH BEST FOCUS TUE...WANING INTO TUE NIGHT. LES
PARAMETERS CONT TO PRESENT RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH LK/8H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS...UNIMPRESSIVE SUPERSATURATION
AND DEPTH/COHESION OF DGZ...TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. MODELS DIVERGE
ON MAINTENANCE OF VIGORED SHORTWAVE PER WV IMAGERY NEAR
50N/140W...FAVOR ECMWF WITH MORE RECOGNIZABLE CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
WRN GRTLKS FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WED AFTN/NIGHT. AGAIN MINOR LES
INTO THU WITH PRIMARY FOCUS LEANING TO COASTAL CYCLONGENESIS OFF ERN
COAST OF FLA AS LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS OVR CNTL CONUS...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE HAS ALLOWED FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST INDIANA. EXPECTING KFWA TO EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HOURS OF
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING. STILL EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO AFFECT KSBN AFTER THE
08Z-09Z PERIOD ALTHOUGH MAY BE MORE OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS NATURE
AS OPPOSED TO WIDESPREAD. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT KSBN THROUGH OF THE NIGHT ALSO. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KNOTS IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADING TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HAVE
OMITTED ANY TS MENTION ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW END PROB MAY EXIST FOR
ISOLD TSRA AFTER 00Z. AFTER A FEW MORE HOURS OF LLWS MENTION TO
BEGIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WILL REINTRODUCE THIS MENTION TO
COVER THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE FURTHER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BEFORE
SFC WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities