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000
FXUS63 KIWX 291845
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
245 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN
ONE HALF AND ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM
AROUND 40 NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CLIPPED NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND
GENERATED A BIT MORE PCPN THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THAT WAVE IS
EXITING THIS AFTERNOON AND PCPN HAS ENDED. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
HAS HELPED BREAK UP CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT AND GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN WAVES EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OR BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE SPREAD NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 40 IN NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

STRONG THETA E SURGE SHOWN BY MOST MODELS FOR SATURDAY WITH LARGE
AREA OF PCPN MOVING NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN
THE SOUTH EARLY TO MID MORNING. INITIAL THETA SURGE MAY GENERATE
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS CENTRAL BY MID MORNING BUT BULK OF
MODERATE RAIN WILL ADVANCE INTO THESE AREAS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT NORTHEAST
MOVEMENT BUT DEPTH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT SHOULD OVERWHELM
THIS LOW LEVEL DRY WEDGE AS DAY PROGRESSES. WITH ALL MODELS ON BOARD
AND NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING HAVE BUMPED POPS FURTHER TO
HIGH END CATEGORICAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY LIKELY IN THE
QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. ANOTHER COOL AND RAW DAY FOR LATE APRIL
WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AT BEST AND STIFF EAST
WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT (NOSE OF 1" PWAT
PLUME) AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AROUND A PLAINS
UPPER LOW. ALSO JUST ENOUGH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN
FCST SOUNDINGS FOR A SLIGHT CHC THUNDER MENTION SOUTHERN HALF. THE
PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL THEN SHEAR EASTWARD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES FOCUSING
ALONG ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/DEFORMATION AXIS. OVERALL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
QUALITY/FORCING WANES...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WEAK ML DESTABILIZATION NEAR SFC PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE. TEMPS
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OTHERWISE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MORE DOMINANT EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TROUGHING WILL THEN SETTLE IN
FOR NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BEST PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK (WEDNESDAY) AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CONDITIONS WERE SLOWLY IMPROVING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH KFWA UP
TO LOW END MVFR BUT KSBN STILL AT IFR WITH ISSUANCE. SHOULD SEE
CIGS SLOWLY RISE WITH WARMING AND WEAK MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT
TREND OF HIRES GUIDANCE WITH MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OPTIMISTIC VFR LATER THIS EVENING. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO
INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE AS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST APPROACHES.
RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH ON SATURDAY BUT LOWER CIGS AND VIS WITH
RAIN ONSET EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO OR JUST AFTER 18Z AT KSBN AND
KFWA SO KEPT THESE SITES VFR. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DOWN TURN IN
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON WITH NEXT ISSUANCE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 291845
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
245 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN
ONE HALF AND ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM
AROUND 40 NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CLIPPED NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND
GENERATED A BIT MORE PCPN THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THAT WAVE IS
EXITING THIS AFTERNOON AND PCPN HAS ENDED. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
HAS HELPED BREAK UP CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT AND GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN WAVES EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OR BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE SPREAD NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 40 IN NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

STRONG THETA E SURGE SHOWN BY MOST MODELS FOR SATURDAY WITH LARGE
AREA OF PCPN MOVING NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN
THE SOUTH EARLY TO MID MORNING. INITIAL THETA SURGE MAY GENERATE
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS CENTRAL BY MID MORNING BUT BULK OF
MODERATE RAIN WILL ADVANCE INTO THESE AREAS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT NORTHEAST
MOVEMENT BUT DEPTH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT SHOULD OVERWHELM
THIS LOW LEVEL DRY WEDGE AS DAY PROGRESSES. WITH ALL MODELS ON BOARD
AND NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING HAVE BUMPED POPS FURTHER TO
HIGH END CATEGORICAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY LIKELY IN THE
QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. ANOTHER COOL AND RAW DAY FOR LATE APRIL
WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AT BEST AND STIFF EAST
WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT (NOSE OF 1" PWAT
PLUME) AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AROUND A PLAINS
UPPER LOW. ALSO JUST ENOUGH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN
FCST SOUNDINGS FOR A SLIGHT CHC THUNDER MENTION SOUTHERN HALF. THE
PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL THEN SHEAR EASTWARD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES FOCUSING
ALONG ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/DEFORMATION AXIS. OVERALL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
QUALITY/FORCING WANES...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WEAK ML DESTABILIZATION NEAR SFC PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE. TEMPS
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OTHERWISE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MORE DOMINANT EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TROUGHING WILL THEN SETTLE IN
FOR NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BEST PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK (WEDNESDAY) AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CONDITIONS WERE SLOWLY IMPROVING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH KFWA UP
TO LOW END MVFR BUT KSBN STILL AT IFR WITH ISSUANCE. SHOULD SEE
CIGS SLOWLY RISE WITH WARMING AND WEAK MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT
TREND OF HIRES GUIDANCE WITH MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OPTIMISTIC VFR LATER THIS EVENING. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO
INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE AS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST APPROACHES.
RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH ON SATURDAY BUT LOWER CIGS AND VIS WITH
RAIN ONSET EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO OR JUST AFTER 18Z AT KSBN AND
KFWA SO KEPT THESE SITES VFR. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DOWN TURN IN
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON WITH NEXT ISSUANCE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 291723
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
123 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN
ONE HALF AND ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE
MIDDLE 60S TOWARDS CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

FORECAST ISSUES WILL INVOLVE 1) AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND SUBSEQUENT
TEMPS TODAY 2) TIMING OF LIGHT RAIN INTO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS LATER
TONIGHT

THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY...SOUNDINGS AND PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD GIVEN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. HOWEVER TRENDS
ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA SHOW CLEARING TAKING PLACE WITH
NOTED NORTHWARD PROGRESS. FAR SW AREAS MAY SEE SOME CLEARING TOWARDS
SUNRISE BUT NOT CONVINCED IT WILL MAKE A LOT OF PROGRESS NORTHWARD
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF FILLING UPPER LOW. UPDATE TO SKY COVER MAY
BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS BUT WILL STICK WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY FOR NOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE INTRODUCED (AT
LEAST FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS) AS BAND OF RADAR RETURNS
WORKING NORTHEAST SHOWING SIGNS OF REACHING THE GROUND. LOOKS LIKE
ONLY A FEW HOURS TO DEAL WITH IT SO WILL ATTEMPT TO ADD SOME TIMING
TO THE AREA.

TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...  ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS THE CLOUDS
HOLDING ON STRONG. GIVEN NEAR TERM TRENDS...WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TRENDING TOWARDS MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. WITH THE WARMER AIR TRAPPED TO THE
SOUTH...ANOTHER COLD DAY BY LATE APRIL STANDARDS WILL BE IN STORE
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

OVERNIGHT...STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS RESIDED SOUTH OF THE AREA
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BEGIN TO EDGE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY OUT OF TEXAS INTO NE KANSAS BY 12Z SAT. NAM
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LIGHT RAIN STARTING TO MOVE INTO FAR SW/S AREAS
TOWARDS 12Z WITH ECMWF/GFS MUCH SLOWER (INTO LONG TERM PERIOD).
AFTER IN HOUSE DISCUSSION AND GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MOST SURROUNDING
OFFICES HAVE INTRODUCE SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS IN FAR SOUTH IN THE 9 TO
12Z WINDOW FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

LONG TERM PERIOD TO BEGIN UNSETTLED AS A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
ALLOWS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS PROBABLE BY
AFTERNOON...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT TIMING OF
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE TO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW VORT MAX MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW/MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY FRONTOGENETIC IN NATURE
DUE TO EMERGENCE OF MAIN UPPER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY AND NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE ABOVE FACTORS STILL SUPPORT
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH
EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. NOT MUCH
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW AND
INITIAL EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS WITH PRECIP. WARMEST MINS CLOSE
TO 60 ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WHERE A LATER PRECIP ARRIVAL IS EXPECTED.

LULL IN GREATER RAIN COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS LEAD SHORT WAVE DAMPENS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER.
WITH WEAK FORCING PERSISTING OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISHING MOISTURE
DEPTHS SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FORECAST IS OF RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FINER
DETAILS REGARDING EVOLUTION OF WEAKENING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT BECOMES MORE SHEARED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD ACCOMPANY EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE WITH A POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW/MID
LEVEL FGEN FORCING ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEST
CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON APPEAR TO
BE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST CHANCE POPS DUE
TO ABOVE UNCERTAINTY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS THIS UPPER VORT MAX DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
COOLER LEVEL TEMPS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FEATURE BUT
BETTER INSOLATION ON MONDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT IN RESOLVING
TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY AND THUS HAVE TRIED TO KEEP PERIODS
OF MENTIONABLE POPS TO A MINIMUM. IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH BEST
CHANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE SOME TIME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME WHERE HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS. CONFIDENCE IN TEMP
FORECAST DOES DECREASE SOMEWHAT POST-TUESDAY WITH DEPENDENCE OF
STRENGTH OF THERMAL ADVECTION ON SHORT WAVE TRACK/INTENSITY...BUT
OVERALL...PERIOD SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CONDITIONS WERE SLOWLY IMPROVING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH KFWA UP
TO LOW END MVFR BUT KSBN STILL AT IFR WITH ISSUANCE. SHOULD SEE
CIGS SLOWLY RISE WITH WARMING AND WEAK MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT
TREND OF HIRES GUIDANCE WITH MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OPTIMISTIC VFR LATER THIS EVENING. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO
INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE AS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST APPROACHES.
RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH ON SATURDAY BUT LOWER CIGS AND VIS WITH
RAIN ONSET EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO OR JUST AFTER 18Z AT KSBN AND
KFWA SO KEPT THESE SITES VFR. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DOWN TURN IN
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON WITH NEXT ISSUANCE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 291723
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
123 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN
ONE HALF AND ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE
MIDDLE 60S TOWARDS CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

FORECAST ISSUES WILL INVOLVE 1) AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND SUBSEQUENT
TEMPS TODAY 2) TIMING OF LIGHT RAIN INTO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS LATER
TONIGHT

THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY...SOUNDINGS AND PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD GIVEN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. HOWEVER TRENDS
ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA SHOW CLEARING TAKING PLACE WITH
NOTED NORTHWARD PROGRESS. FAR SW AREAS MAY SEE SOME CLEARING TOWARDS
SUNRISE BUT NOT CONVINCED IT WILL MAKE A LOT OF PROGRESS NORTHWARD
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF FILLING UPPER LOW. UPDATE TO SKY COVER MAY
BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS BUT WILL STICK WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY FOR NOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE INTRODUCED (AT
LEAST FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS) AS BAND OF RADAR RETURNS
WORKING NORTHEAST SHOWING SIGNS OF REACHING THE GROUND. LOOKS LIKE
ONLY A FEW HOURS TO DEAL WITH IT SO WILL ATTEMPT TO ADD SOME TIMING
TO THE AREA.

TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...  ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS THE CLOUDS
HOLDING ON STRONG. GIVEN NEAR TERM TRENDS...WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TRENDING TOWARDS MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. WITH THE WARMER AIR TRAPPED TO THE
SOUTH...ANOTHER COLD DAY BY LATE APRIL STANDARDS WILL BE IN STORE
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

OVERNIGHT...STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS RESIDED SOUTH OF THE AREA
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BEGIN TO EDGE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY OUT OF TEXAS INTO NE KANSAS BY 12Z SAT. NAM
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LIGHT RAIN STARTING TO MOVE INTO FAR SW/S AREAS
TOWARDS 12Z WITH ECMWF/GFS MUCH SLOWER (INTO LONG TERM PERIOD).
AFTER IN HOUSE DISCUSSION AND GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MOST SURROUNDING
OFFICES HAVE INTRODUCE SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS IN FAR SOUTH IN THE 9 TO
12Z WINDOW FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

LONG TERM PERIOD TO BEGIN UNSETTLED AS A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
ALLOWS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS PROBABLE BY
AFTERNOON...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT TIMING OF
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE TO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW VORT MAX MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW/MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY FRONTOGENETIC IN NATURE
DUE TO EMERGENCE OF MAIN UPPER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY AND NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE ABOVE FACTORS STILL SUPPORT
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH
EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. NOT MUCH
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW AND
INITIAL EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS WITH PRECIP. WARMEST MINS CLOSE
TO 60 ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WHERE A LATER PRECIP ARRIVAL IS EXPECTED.

LULL IN GREATER RAIN COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS LEAD SHORT WAVE DAMPENS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER.
WITH WEAK FORCING PERSISTING OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISHING MOISTURE
DEPTHS SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FORECAST IS OF RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FINER
DETAILS REGARDING EVOLUTION OF WEAKENING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT BECOMES MORE SHEARED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD ACCOMPANY EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE WITH A POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW/MID
LEVEL FGEN FORCING ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEST
CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON APPEAR TO
BE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST CHANCE POPS DUE
TO ABOVE UNCERTAINTY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS THIS UPPER VORT MAX DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
COOLER LEVEL TEMPS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FEATURE BUT
BETTER INSOLATION ON MONDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT IN RESOLVING
TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY AND THUS HAVE TRIED TO KEEP PERIODS
OF MENTIONABLE POPS TO A MINIMUM. IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH BEST
CHANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE SOME TIME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME WHERE HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS. CONFIDENCE IN TEMP
FORECAST DOES DECREASE SOMEWHAT POST-TUESDAY WITH DEPENDENCE OF
STRENGTH OF THERMAL ADVECTION ON SHORT WAVE TRACK/INTENSITY...BUT
OVERALL...PERIOD SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CONDITIONS WERE SLOWLY IMPROVING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH KFWA UP
TO LOW END MVFR BUT KSBN STILL AT IFR WITH ISSUANCE. SHOULD SEE
CIGS SLOWLY RISE WITH WARMING AND WEAK MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT
TREND OF HIRES GUIDANCE WITH MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OPTIMISTIC VFR LATER THIS EVENING. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO
INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE AS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST APPROACHES.
RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH ON SATURDAY BUT LOWER CIGS AND VIS WITH
RAIN ONSET EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO OR JUST AFTER 18Z AT KSBN AND
KFWA SO KEPT THESE SITES VFR. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DOWN TURN IN
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON WITH NEXT ISSUANCE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 290938
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
538 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INTO
TONIGHT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD SOUTH OF
ROUTE 30. CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY FILL BACK IN TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY NORTH WITH RAIN ARRIVING MAINLY DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN FAR
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 60S TOWARDS CENTRAL INDIANA.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

FORECAST ISSUES WILL INVOLVE 1) AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND SUBSEQUENT
TEMPS TODAY 2) TIMING OF LIGHT RAIN INTO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS LATER
TONIGHT

THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY...SOUNDINGS AND PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD GIVEN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. HOWEVER TRENDS
ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA SHOW CLEARING TAKING PLACE WITH
NOTED NORTHWARD PROGRESS. FAR SW AREAS MAY SEE SOME CLEARING TOWARDS
SUNRISE BUT NOT CONVINCED IT WILL MAKE A LOT OF PROGRESS NORTHWARD
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF FILLING UPPER LOW. UPDATE TO SKY COVER MAY
BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS BUT WILL STICK WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY FOR NOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE INTRODUCED (AT
LEAST FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS) AS BAND OF RADAR RETURNS
WORKING NORTHEAST SHOWING SIGNS OF REACHING THE GROUND. LOOKS LIKE
ONLY A FEW HOURS TO DEAL WITH IT SO WILL ATTEMPT TO ADD SOME TIMING
TO THE AREA.

TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...  ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS THE CLOUDS
HOLDING ON STRONG. GIVEN NEAR TERM TRENDS...WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TRENDING TOWARDS MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. WITH THE WARMER AIR TRAPPED TO THE
SOUTH...ANOTHER COLD DAY BY LATE APRIL STANDARDS WILL BE IN STORE
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

OVERNIGHT...STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS RESIDED SOUTH OF THE AREA
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BEGIN TO EDGE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY OUT OF TEXAS INTO NE KANSAS BY 12Z SAT. NAM
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LIGHT RAIN STARTING TO MOVE INTO FAR SW/S AREAS
TOWARDS 12Z WITH ECMWF/GFS MUCH SLOWER (INTO LONG TERM PERIOD).
AFTER IN HOUSE DISCUSSION AND GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MOST SURROUNDING
OFFICES HAVE INTRODUCE SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS IN FAR SOUTH IN THE 9 TO
12Z WINDOW FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

LONG TERM PERIOD TO BEGIN UNSETTLED AS A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
ALLOWS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS PROBABLE BY
AFTERNOON...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT TIMING OF
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE TO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW VORT MAX MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW/MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY FRONTOGENETIC IN NATURE
DUE TO EMERGENCE OF MAIN UPPER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY AND NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE ABOVE FACTORS STILL SUPPORT
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH
EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. NOT MUCH
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW AND
INITIAL EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS WITH PRECIP. WARMEST MINS CLOSE
TO 60 ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WHERE A LATER PRECIP ARRIVAL IS EXPECTED.

LULL IN GREATER RAIN COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS LEAD SHORT WAVE DAMPENS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER.
WITH WEAK FORCING PERSISTING OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISHING MOISTURE
DEPTHS SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FORECAST IS OF RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FINER
DETAILS REGARDING EVOLUTION OF WEAKENING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT BECOMES MORE SHEARED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD ACCOMPANY EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE WITH A POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW/MID
LEVEL FGEN FORCING ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEST
CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON APPEAR TO
BE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST CHANCE POPS DUE
TO ABOVE UNCERTAINTY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS THIS UPPER VORT MAX DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
COOLER LEVEL TEMPS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FEATURE BUT
BETTER INSOLATION ON MONDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT IN RESOLVING
TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY AND THUS HAVE TRIED TO KEEP PERIODS
OF MENTIONABLE POPS TO A MINIMUM. IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH BEST
CHANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE SOME TIME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME WHERE HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS. CONFIDENCE IN TEMP
FORECAST DOES DECREASE SOMEWHAT POST-TUESDAY WITH DEPENDENCE OF
STRENGTH OF THERMAL ADVECTION ON SHORT WAVE TRACK/INTENSITY...BUT
OVERALL...PERIOD SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREA OF VFR CIGS MOVED INTO KFWA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BUT HAS SINCE
RETURNED TO MVFR. MVFR CIGS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AT
KSBN. AREA OF CLEARING HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO WORK NORTHEAST AS
LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW BATTLES WITH THE CLEARING. MODELS STILL
SLOWLY RAISE CIG HEIGHTS TO VFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BUT KEEP THINGS BKN TO OVC. WILL TREND UPWARDS SOME WITH PERSISTENCE
IN MODELS. RAIN WILL IMPACT THE AREA BUT NOT UNTIL OUTSIDE THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 290744
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
344 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INTO
TONIGHT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD SOUTH OF
ROUTE 30. CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY FILL BACK IN TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY NORTH WITH RAIN ARRIVING MAINLY DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN FAR
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 60S TOWARDS CENTRAL INDIANA.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

FORECAST ISSUES WILL INVOLVE 1) AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND SUBSEQUENT
TEMPS TODAY 2) TIMING OF LIGHT RAIN INTO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS LATER
TONIGHT

THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY...SOUNDINGS AND PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD GIVEN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. HOWEVER TRENDS
ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA SHOW CLEARING TAKING PLACE WITH
NOTED NORTHWARD PROGRESS. FAR SW AREAS MAY SEE SOME CLEARING TOWARDS
SUNRISE BUT NOT CONVINCED IT WILL MAKE A LOT OF PROGRESS NORTHWARD
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF FILLING UPPER LOW. UPDATE TO SKY COVER MAY
BENEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS BUT WILL STICK WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
TOCLOUDY FOR NOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE INTRODUCED (AT
LEAST FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS) AS BAND OF RADAR RETURNS
WORKING NORTHEAST SHOWING SIGNS OF REACHING THE GROUND. LOOKS LIKE
ONLY A FEW HOURS TO DEAL WITH IT SO WILL ATTEMPT TO ADD SOME TIMING
TO THE AREA.

TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...  ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS THE CLOUDS
HOLDING ON STRONG. GIVEN NEAR TERM TRENDS...WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TRENDING TOWARDS MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. WITH THE WARMER AIR TRAPPED TO THE
SOUTH...ANOTHER COLD DAY BY LATE APRIL STANDARDS WILL BE IN STORE
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

OVERNIGHT...STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS RESIDED SOUTH OF THE AREA
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BEGIN TO EDGE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY OUT OF TEXAS INTO NE KANSAS BY 12Z SAT. NAM
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LIGHT RAIN STARTING TO MOVE INTO FAR SW/S AREAS
TOWARDS 12Z WITH ECMWF/GFS MUCH SLOWER (INTO LONG TERM PERIOD).
AFTER IN HOUSE DISCUSSION AND GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MOST SURROUNDING
OFFICES HAVE INTRODUCE SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS IN FAR SOUTH IN THE 9 TO
12Z WINDOW FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

LONG TERM PERIOD TO BEGIN UNSETTLED AS A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
ALLOWS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS PROBABLE BY
AFTERNOON...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT TIMING OF
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE TO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW VORT MAX MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW/MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY FRONTOGENETIC IN NATURE
DUE TO EMERGENCE OF MAIN UPPER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY AND NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE ABOVE FACTORS STILL SUPPORT
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH
EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. NOT MUCH
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW AND
INITIAL EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS WITH PRECIP. WARMEST MINS CLOSE
TO 60 ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WHERE A LATER PRECIP ARRIVAL IS EXPECTED.

LULL IN GREATER RAIN COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS LEAD SHORT WAVE DAMPENS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER.
WITH WEAK FORCING PERSISTING OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISHING MOISTURE
DEPTHS SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FORECAST IS OF RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FINER
DETAILS REGARDING EVOLUTION OF WEAKENING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT BECOMES MORE SHEARED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD ACCOMPANY EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE WITH A POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW/MID
LEVEL FGEN FORCING ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEST
CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON APPEAR TO
BE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST CHANCE POPS DUE
TO ABOVE UNCERTAINTY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS THIS UPPER VORT MAX DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
COOLER LEVEL TEMPS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FEATURE BUT
BETTER INSOLATION ON MONDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT IN RESOLVING
TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY AND THUS HAVE TRIED TO KEEP PERIODS
OF MENTIONABLE POPS TO A MINIMUM. IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH BEST
CHANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE SOME TIME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME WHERE HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS. CONFIDENCE IN TEMP
FORECAST DOES DECREASE SOMEWHAT POST-TUESDAY WITH DEPENDENCE OF
STRENGTH OF THERMAL ADVECTION ON SHORT WAVE TRACK/INTENSITY...BUT
OVERALL...PERIOD SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENT STRATUS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD AS EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT (BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE) TO SCOUR OUT TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. IF ANY BREAKS OR CLEARING OCCURS...IT WOULD BE LATE
MORNING FRIDAY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. WILL BE INTRODUCING AT LEAST SOME REDUCTION IN VSBY AT
KSBN GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS OF 3 TO 5 SM IN BR AND CONTINUE WITH
SIMILAR TAFS AT KFWA.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 290450
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING AS A COOL EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ON THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE
AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN TO THE MID 60S INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FILLING MID LVL SYSTEM OVER SERN MN TO BEGIN EWD ACCELERATION WITH
PROMPT OF TWO STRONGER UPSTREAM SYSTEMS IN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN.
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MINOR AS IT MOVES THROUGH SRN MI FRIDAY
MORNING. SUBTLE DCVA PRESSING INTO NWRN/WCNTL IN AT THIS TIME MAY
AFFORD A FEW REDEVELOPING SHRA THIS EVENING...ESPCLY ACROSS SRN CWA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MINOR INSTABILITY POOL CNTL/SERN IN. DEPTH OF
COLD AIR ACRS CWA TOO GREAT TO AFFORD ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SHALLOW/BRIEF SHRA. ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COLD SIDE OF
OCCLUSAL TO LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT INTO FRI AM...WITH
SOME LOWERING OF CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND SOME MINOR CONCERN
THAT MID LVL VORTICITY AND PERHAPS WEAK INVERTED SFC TROF EXTNDG
WEST OF FILLING UPPER OHIO VALLEY SURFACE LOW COULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME EARLY MORNING/DAYBREAK LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE AND DISPARATE COLOCATION PRECLUDES LITTLE MORE THAN
BRIEF MENTION HERE AND TOKEN LOW POPS ACRS NRN TIER. RAISED TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERNIGHT WITH ANTICIPATED THICK CLOUD COVER.
INCREASED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MIDDAY/AFTN INSOLATION FRI WITH SURFACE
TEMPS MODERATING INTO UPPER 50S/LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE NEXT SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW WILL EJECT NE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN DAMPEN EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY ON SUNDAY
IN TANDEM WITH WEAK NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WORKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. A BAND OF RAIN WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE AS STRONG MID LEVEL THETA-E ADV/CONVERGENCE
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF WAVE...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE INTO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AS MOISTURE PROFILES
BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND FORCING WANES WITH MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING INTO LINGERING BLOCKY/CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PROCESS WILL UNFORTUNATELY
KEEP SYSTEM WARM FRONT AND TRACK OF WEAK SFC REFLECTION SOUTH
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...RESULTING IN MORE COOL/RAW EASTERLY FLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND.

WESTERN NOAM REX BLOCK/WESTERN CANADA POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO MORE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATED
NW FLOW/TROUGHING LOCALLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH TIMING OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW BY
TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY. OPTED FOR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIME GIVEN LACKING MOISTURE RETURN/MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL LIKELY REBOUND A LITTLE MONDAY-TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MODELED TO PIVOT THROUGH SOMETIME LATER
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENT STRATUS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD AS EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT (BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE) TO SCOUR OUT TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. IF ANY BREAKS OR CLEARING OCCURS...IT WOULD BE LATE
MORNING FRIDAY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. WILL BE INTRODUCING AT LEAST SOME REDUCTION IN VSBY AT
KSBN GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS OF 3 TO 5 SM IN BR AND CONTINUE WITH
SIMILAR TAFS AT KFWA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY/FISHER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 290036
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
836 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE MID 60S INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FILLING MID LVL SYSTEM OVER SERN MN TO BEGIN EWD ACCELERATION WITH
PROMPT OF TWO STRONGER UPSTREAM SYSTEMS IN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN.
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MINOR AS IT MOVES THROUGH SRN MI FRIDAY
MORNING. SUBTLE DCVA PRESSING INTO NWRN/WCNTL IN AT THIS TIME MAY
AFFORD A FEW REDEVELOPING SHRA THIS EVENING...ESPCLY ACROSS SRN CWA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MINOR INSTABILITY POOL CNTL/SERN IN. DEPTH OF
COLD AIR ACRS CWA TOO GREAT TO AFFORD ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SHALLOW/BRIEF SHRA. ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COLD SIDE OF
OCCLUSAL TO LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT INTO FRI AM...WITH
SOME LOWERING OF CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND SOME MINOR CONCERN
THAT MID LVL VORTICITY AND PERHAPS WEAK INVERTED SFC TROF EXTNDG
WEST OF FILLING UPPER OHIO VALLEY SURFACE LOW COULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME EARLY MORNING/DAYBREAK LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE AND DISPARATE COLOCATION PRECLUDES LITTLE MORE THAN
BRIEF MENTION HERE AND TOKEN LOW POPS ACRS NRN TIER. RAISED TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERNIGHT WITH ANTICIPATED THICK CLOUD COVER.
INCREASED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MIDDAY/AFTN INSOLATION FRI WITH SURFACE
TEMPS MODERATING INTO UPPER 50S/LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE NEXT SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW WILL EJECT NE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN DAMPEN EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY ON SUNDAY
IN TANDEM WITH WEAK NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WORKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. A BAND OF RAIN WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE AS STRONG MID LEVEL THETA-E ADV/CONVERGENCE
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF WAVE...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE INTO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AS MOISTURE PROFILES
BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND FORCING WANES WITH MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING INTO LINGERING BLOCKY/CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PROCESS WILL UNFORTUNATELY
KEEP SYSTEM WARM FRONT AND TRACK OF WEAK SFC REFLECTION SOUTH
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...RESULTING IN MORE COOL/RAW EASTERLY FLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND.

WESTERN NOAM REX BLOCK/WESTERN CANADA POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO MORE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATED
NW FLOW/TROUGHING LOCALLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH TIMING OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW BY
TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY. OPTED FOR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIME GIVEN LACKING MOISTURE RETURN/MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL LIKELY REBOUND A LITTLE MONDAY-TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MODELED TO PIVOT THROUGH SOMETIME LATER
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

LL MSTR TRAPPED BENEATH SHALLOW POST FNTL INVERSION WILL AIDE IN
PERSISTENCE OF LOW STRATUS THIS PD. PREVAILING MVFR CONDS XPCD
ALTHOUGH SOME DECAY IN CIG HGTS XPCD TO OCCUR LT TONIGHT IN
CONJUNCTION W/NORMAL DIURNAL CYCLE. OTRWS HIGHLY CONDL CHC FOR A
PD OF LIFR TWD DAYBREAK AS WHATS LEFTOVR OF YDA PLAINS CYCLONE
SHEARS EWD ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 290036
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
836 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE MID 60S INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FILLING MID LVL SYSTEM OVER SERN MN TO BEGIN EWD ACCELERATION WITH
PROMPT OF TWO STRONGER UPSTREAM SYSTEMS IN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN.
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MINOR AS IT MOVES THROUGH SRN MI FRIDAY
MORNING. SUBTLE DCVA PRESSING INTO NWRN/WCNTL IN AT THIS TIME MAY
AFFORD A FEW REDEVELOPING SHRA THIS EVENING...ESPCLY ACROSS SRN CWA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MINOR INSTABILITY POOL CNTL/SERN IN. DEPTH OF
COLD AIR ACRS CWA TOO GREAT TO AFFORD ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SHALLOW/BRIEF SHRA. ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COLD SIDE OF
OCCLUSAL TO LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT INTO FRI AM...WITH
SOME LOWERING OF CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND SOME MINOR CONCERN
THAT MID LVL VORTICITY AND PERHAPS WEAK INVERTED SFC TROF EXTNDG
WEST OF FILLING UPPER OHIO VALLEY SURFACE LOW COULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME EARLY MORNING/DAYBREAK LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE AND DISPARATE COLOCATION PRECLUDES LITTLE MORE THAN
BRIEF MENTION HERE AND TOKEN LOW POPS ACRS NRN TIER. RAISED TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERNIGHT WITH ANTICIPATED THICK CLOUD COVER.
INCREASED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MIDDAY/AFTN INSOLATION FRI WITH SURFACE
TEMPS MODERATING INTO UPPER 50S/LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE NEXT SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW WILL EJECT NE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN DAMPEN EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY ON SUNDAY
IN TANDEM WITH WEAK NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WORKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. A BAND OF RAIN WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE AS STRONG MID LEVEL THETA-E ADV/CONVERGENCE
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF WAVE...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE INTO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AS MOISTURE PROFILES
BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND FORCING WANES WITH MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING INTO LINGERING BLOCKY/CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PROCESS WILL UNFORTUNATELY
KEEP SYSTEM WARM FRONT AND TRACK OF WEAK SFC REFLECTION SOUTH
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...RESULTING IN MORE COOL/RAW EASTERLY FLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND.

WESTERN NOAM REX BLOCK/WESTERN CANADA POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO MORE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATED
NW FLOW/TROUGHING LOCALLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH TIMING OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW BY
TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY. OPTED FOR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIME GIVEN LACKING MOISTURE RETURN/MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL LIKELY REBOUND A LITTLE MONDAY-TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MODELED TO PIVOT THROUGH SOMETIME LATER
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

LL MSTR TRAPPED BENEATH SHALLOW POST FNTL INVERSION WILL AIDE IN
PERSISTENCE OF LOW STRATUS THIS PD. PREVAILING MVFR CONDS XPCD
ALTHOUGH SOME DECAY IN CIG HGTS XPCD TO OCCUR LT TONIGHT IN
CONJUNCTION W/NORMAL DIURNAL CYCLE. OTRWS HIGHLY CONDL CHC FOR A
PD OF LIFR TWD DAYBREAK AS WHATS LEFTOVR OF YDA PLAINS CYCLONE
SHEARS EWD ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 281942
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
342 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE MID 60S INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FILLING MID LVL SYSTEM OVER SERN MN TO BEGIN EWD ACCELERATION WITH
PROMPT OF TWO STRONGER UPSTREAM SYSTEMS IN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN.
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MINOR AS IT MOVES THROUGH SRN MI FRIDAY
MORNING. SUBTLE DCVA PRESSING INTO NWRN/WCNTL IN AT THIS TIME MAY
AFFORD A FEW REDEVELOPING SHRA THIS EVENING...ESPCLY ACROSS SRN CWA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MINOR INSTABILITY POOL CNTL/SERN IN. DEPTH OF
COLD AIR ACRS CWA TOO GREAT TO AFFORD ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SHALLOW/BRIEF SHRA. ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COLD SIDE OF
OCCLUSAL TO LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT INTO FRI AM...WITH
SOME LOWERING OF CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND SOME MINOR CONCERN
THAT MID LVL VORTICITY AND PERHAPS WEAK INVERTED SFC TROF EXTNDG
WEST OF FILLING UPPER OHIO VALLEY SURFACE LOW COULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME EARLY MORNING/DAYBREAK LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE AND DISPARATE COLOCATION PRECLUDES LITTLE MORE THAN
BRIEF MENTION HERE AND TOKEN LOW POPS ACRS NRN TIER. RAISED TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERNIGHT WITH ANTICIPATED THICK CLOUD COVER.
INCREASED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MIDDAY/AFTN INSOLATION FRI WITH SURFACE
TEMPS MODERATING INTO UPPER 50S/LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE NEXT SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW WILL EJECT NE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN DAMPEN EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY ON SUNDAY
IN TANDEM WITH WEAK NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WORKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. A BAND OF RAIN WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE AS STRONG MID LEVEL THETA-E ADV/CONVERGENCE
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF WAVE...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE INTO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AS MOISTURE PROFILES
BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND FORCING WANES WITH MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING INTO LINGERING BLOCKY/CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PROCESS WILL UNFORTUNATELY
KEEP SYSTEM WARM FRONT AND TRACK OF WEAK SFC REFLECTION SOUTH
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...RESULTING IN MORE COOL/RAW EASTERLY FLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND.

WESTERN NOAM REX BLOCK/WESTERN CANADA POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO MORE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATED
NW FLOW/TROUGHING LOCALLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH TIMING OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW BY
TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY. OPTED FOR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIME GIVEN LACKING MOISTURE RETURN/MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL LIKELY REBOUND A LITTLE MONDAY-TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MODELED TO PIVOT THROUGH SOMETIME LATER
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
TO ALLOW LOW CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. CIGS LIKELY
TO LOWER LATE TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
LOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR LIFR CIGS NEAR DAYBREAK AS SATURATION
LEVELS DEEPEN ALONG WITH POTENTIAL DZ/BR DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED AS
MIDLVL VORTEX /CURRENTLY STAGNATED OVER IA/MN BORDER/ SHIFTS EWD
INTO SRN LAKE MI/SRN MI TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 281747
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
147 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO
RE-DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A SHOWER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF COMBINED WITH A GRAVITY WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS TO THE AREA. A COOL LAYER JUST ABOVE THE GROUND WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT SO THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COOL TODAY GIVEN PRECIPITATION WITH A COOL
EAST FLOW. THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING WILL BE
DAMPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY. WHILE BULK
OF THE FORCING WITH THIS DAMPENING SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE AREA BY THIS TIME...SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY BE ONGOING EARLY
FRIDAY ACROSS PARTICULARLY FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MOISTURE PROFILES BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. HOWEVER
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS DRY LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN TO
DISSIPATE FRIDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL INVERSION/TRAPPED MOISTURE WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WHILE NEXT SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO KICK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LOW LEVEL
JET AND AXIS OF STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE POSITIONED WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW/MID
LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION BEGINNING TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INCREASE IN POPS FOR SATURDAY DUE TO THIS
STRONG ADVECTIVE FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT THUNDER MENTION
DURING DAY SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY DEEP/STABLE EASTERLY FLOW. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE SHAPING UP AS RATHER RAW GIVEN RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA
AND EASTERLY FLOW/EVAPORATIVE COOLING KEEPING TEMPS LOCKED IN PLACE.
UPON COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE NUDGED HIGHS DOWN
SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE ABOVE.

IN A VERY SIMILAR FASHION TO THE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA THIS
MORNING...LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEEKEND SYSTEM SHOULD
STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA WITH PROLONGED PRECIP
CHANCES AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DAMPENS IN A SIMILAR FASHION AND MEANDERS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. INSTABILITY MAY BECOME BASED
SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A BRIEF LULL IN SHORT WAVES IMPACTING THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS WEAK
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING BECOMES ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
COOLER LOW LEVEL PROFILES FOR MONDAY SHOULD BE LARGELY OFFSET BY
BETTER INSOLATION WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONABLE NORMS
FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STARTING
TO CONVERGE A BIT BETTER ON A PAIR OF COMPACT VORTS DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TIMING THESE WAVES DROPPING DOWN
THE RIDGE IS OF LOW RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS FORECAST
DISTANCE BUT DID MAINTAIN BROADBRUSHED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. DAY TO DAY TEMP VARIATIONS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT
SIGNIFICANT ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOT OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD ADVECTION
IS POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF STRONGER MID WEEK SHORT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
TO ALLOW LOW CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. CIGS LIKELY
TO LOWER LATE TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
LOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR LIFR CIGS NEAR DAYBREAK AS SATURATION
LEVELS DEEPEN ALONG WITH POTENTIAL DZ/BR DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED
AS MIDLVL VORTEX /CURRENTLY STAGNATED OVER IA/MN BORDER/
SHIFTS EWD INTO SRN LAKE MI/SRN MI TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOGSDON
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 281607
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1210 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO
RE-DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A SHOWER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF COMBINED WITH A GRAVITY WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS TO THE AREA. A COOL LAYER JUST ABOVE THE GROUND WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT SO THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COOL TODAY GIVEN PRECIPITATION WITH A COOL
EAST FLOW. THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING WILL BE
DAMPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY. WHILE BULK
OF THE FORCING WITH THIS DAMPENING SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE AREA BY THIS TIME...SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY BE ONGOING EARLY
FRIDAY ACROSS PARTICULARLY FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MOISTURE PROFILES BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. HOWEVER
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS DRY LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN TO
DISSIPATE FRIDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL INVERSION/TRAPPED MOISTURE WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WHILE NEXT SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO KICK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LOW LEVEL
JET AND AXIS OF STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE POSITIONED WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW/MID
LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION BEGINNING TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INCREASE IN POPS FOR SATURDAY DUE TO THIS
STRONG ADVECTIVE FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT THUNDER MENTION
DURING DAY SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY DEEP/STABLE EASTERLY FLOW. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE SHAPING UP AS RATHER RAW GIVEN RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA
AND EASTERLY FLOW/EVAPORATIVE COOLING KEEPING TEMPS LOCKED IN PLACE.
UPON COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE NUDGED HIGHS DOWN
SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE ABOVE.

IN A VERY SIMILAR FASHION TO THE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA THIS
MORNING...LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEEKEND SYSTEM SHOULD
STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA WITH PROLONGED PRECIP
CHANCES AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DAMPENS IN A SIMILAR FASHION AND MEANDERS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. INSTABILITY MAY BECOME BASED
SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A BRIEF LULL IN SHORT WAVES IMPACTING THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS WEAK
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING BECOMES ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
COOLER LOW LEVEL PROFILES FOR MONDAY SHOULD BE LARGELY OFFSET BY
BETTER INSOLATION WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONABLE NORMS
FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STARTING
TO CONVERGE A BIT BETTER ON A PAIR OF COMPACT VORTS DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TIMING THESE WAVES DROPPING DOWN
THE RIDGE IS OF LOW RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS FORECAST
DISTANCE BUT DID MAINTAIN BROADBRUSHED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. DAY TO DAY TEMP VARIATIONS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT
SIGNIFICANT ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOT OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD ADVECTION
IS POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF STRONGER MID WEEK SHORT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING WILL SLOW ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION TODAY AS IT BEGINS TO APPROACH NORTHERN
INDIANA. BROAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS AFFECTING
TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING. PROBABILITY OF THUNDER AT TERMINALS
APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN WEAKENING INSTABILITY AXIS
ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA. MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY AT KFWA. A BRIEF LULL IN GREATER SHOWER
COVERAGE MAY MATERIALIZE LATER THIS MORNING BUT INCREASING FORCING
FROM UPSTREAM VORT MAX THIS AFTERNOON AND SHARPENING LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AXIS SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AFFECTING TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY DETERIORATE
TO IFR AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK SFC REFLECTION
BEGINS TO DEPART ACROSS OHIO WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOGSDON
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 281607
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1210 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO
RE-DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A SHOWER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF COMBINED WITH A GRAVITY WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS TO THE AREA. A COOL LAYER JUST ABOVE THE GROUND WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT SO THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COOL TODAY GIVEN PRECIPITATION WITH A COOL
EAST FLOW. THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING WILL BE
DAMPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY. WHILE BULK
OF THE FORCING WITH THIS DAMPENING SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE AREA BY THIS TIME...SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY BE ONGOING EARLY
FRIDAY ACROSS PARTICULARLY FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MOISTURE PROFILES BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. HOWEVER
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS DRY LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN TO
DISSIPATE FRIDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL INVERSION/TRAPPED MOISTURE WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WHILE NEXT SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO KICK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LOW LEVEL
JET AND AXIS OF STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE POSITIONED WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW/MID
LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION BEGINNING TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INCREASE IN POPS FOR SATURDAY DUE TO THIS
STRONG ADVECTIVE FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT THUNDER MENTION
DURING DAY SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY DEEP/STABLE EASTERLY FLOW. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE SHAPING UP AS RATHER RAW GIVEN RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA
AND EASTERLY FLOW/EVAPORATIVE COOLING KEEPING TEMPS LOCKED IN PLACE.
UPON COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE NUDGED HIGHS DOWN
SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE ABOVE.

IN A VERY SIMILAR FASHION TO THE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA THIS
MORNING...LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEEKEND SYSTEM SHOULD
STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA WITH PROLONGED PRECIP
CHANCES AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DAMPENS IN A SIMILAR FASHION AND MEANDERS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. INSTABILITY MAY BECOME BASED
SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A BRIEF LULL IN SHORT WAVES IMPACTING THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS WEAK
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING BECOMES ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
COOLER LOW LEVEL PROFILES FOR MONDAY SHOULD BE LARGELY OFFSET BY
BETTER INSOLATION WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONABLE NORMS
FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STARTING
TO CONVERGE A BIT BETTER ON A PAIR OF COMPACT VORTS DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TIMING THESE WAVES DROPPING DOWN
THE RIDGE IS OF LOW RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS FORECAST
DISTANCE BUT DID MAINTAIN BROADBRUSHED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. DAY TO DAY TEMP VARIATIONS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT
SIGNIFICANT ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOT OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD ADVECTION
IS POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF STRONGER MID WEEK SHORT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING WILL SLOW ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION TODAY AS IT BEGINS TO APPROACH NORTHERN
INDIANA. BROAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS AFFECTING
TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING. PROBABILITY OF THUNDER AT TERMINALS
APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN WEAKENING INSTABILITY AXIS
ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA. MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY AT KFWA. A BRIEF LULL IN GREATER SHOWER
COVERAGE MAY MATERIALIZE LATER THIS MORNING BUT INCREASING FORCING
FROM UPSTREAM VORT MAX THIS AFTERNOON AND SHARPENING LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AXIS SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AFFECTING TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY DETERIORATE
TO IFR AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK SFC REFLECTION
BEGINS TO DEPART ACROSS OHIO WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOGSDON
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 281037
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
637 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S...AND THEN RISE
TO THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF COMBINED WITH A GRAVITY WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS TO THE AREA. A COOL LAYER JUST ABOVE THE GROUND WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT SO THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COOL TODAY GIVEN PRECIPITATION WITH A COOL
EAST FLOW. THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING WILL BE
DAMPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY. WHILE BULK
OF THE FORCING WITH THIS DAMPENING SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE AREA BY THIS TIME...SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY BE ONGOING EARLY
FRIDAY ACROSS PARTICULARLY FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MOISTURE PROFILES BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. HOWEVER
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS DRY LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN TO
DISSIPATE FRIDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL INVERSION/TRAPPED MOISTURE WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WHILE NEXT SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO KICK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LOW LEVEL
JET AND AXIS OF STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE POSITIONED WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW/MID
LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION BEGINNING TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INCREASE IN POPS FOR SATURDAY DUE TO THIS
STRONG ADVECTIVE FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT THUNDER MENTION
DURING DAY SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY DEEP/STABLE EASTERLY FLOW. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE SHAPING UP AS RATHER RAW GIVEN RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA
AND EASTERLY FLOW/EVAPORATIVE COOLING KEEPING TEMPS LOCKED IN PLACE.
UPON COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE NUDGED HIGHS DOWN
SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE ABOVE.

IN A VERY SIMILAR FASHION TO THE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA THIS
MORNING...LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEEKEND SYSTEM SHOULD
STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA WITH PROLONGED PRECIP
CHANCES AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DAMPENS IN A SIMILAR FASHION AND MEANDERS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. INSTABILITY MAY BECOME BASED
SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A BRIEF LULL IN SHORT WAVES IMPACTING THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS WEAK
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING BECOMES ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
COOLER LOW LEVEL PROFILES FOR MONDAY SHOULD BE LARGELY OFFSET BY
BETTER INSOLATION WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONABLE NORMS
FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STARTING
TO CONVERGE A BIT BETTER ON A PAIR OF COMPACT VORTS DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TIMING THESE WAVES DROPPING DOWN
THE RIDGE IS OF LOW RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS FORECAST
DISTANCE BUT DID MAINTAIN BROADBRUSHED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. DAY TO DAY TEMP VARIATIONS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT
SIGNIFICANT ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOT OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD ADVECTION
IS POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF STRONGER MID WEEK SHORT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING WILL SLOW ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION TODAY AS IT BEGINS TO APPROACH NORTHERN
INDIANA. BROAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS AFFECTING
TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING. PROBABILITY OF THUNDER AT TERMINALS
APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN WEAKENING INSTABILITY AXIS
ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA. MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY AT KFWA. A BRIEF LULL IN GREATER SHOWER
COVERAGE MAY MATERIALIZE LATER THIS MORNING BUT INCREASING FORCING
FROM UPSTREAM VORT MAX THIS AFTERNOON AND SHARPENING LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AXIS SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AFFECTING TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY DETERIORATE
TO IFR AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK SFC REFLECTION
BEGINS TO DEPART ACROSS OHIO WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 280835
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
435 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S...AND THEN RISE
TO THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF COMBINED WITH A GRAVITY WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS TO THE AREA. A COOL LAYER JUST ABOVE THE GROUND WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT SO THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COOL TODAY GIVEN PRECIPITATION WITH A COOL
EAST FLOW. THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING WILL BE
DAMPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY. WHILE BULK
OF THE FORCING WITH THIS DAMPENING SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE AREA BY THIS TIME...SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY BE ONGOING EARLY
FRIDAY ACROSS PARTICULARLY FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MOISTURE PROFILES BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. HOWEVER
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS DRY LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN TO
DISSIPATE FRIDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL INVERSION/TRAPPED MOISTURE WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WHILE NEXT SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO KICK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LOW LEVEL
JET AND AXIS OF STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE POSITIONED WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW/MID
LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION BEGINNING TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INCREASE IN POPS FOR SATURDAY DUE TO THIS
STRONG ADVECTIVE FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT THUNDER MENTION
DURING DAY SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY DEEP/STABLE EASTERLY FLOW. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE SHAPING UP AS RATHER RAW GIVEN RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA
AND EASTERLY FLOW/EVAPORATIVE COOLING KEEPING TEMPS LOCKED IN PLACE.
UPON COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE NUDGED HIGHS DOWN
SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE ABOVE.

IN A VERY SIMILAR FASHION TO THE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA THIS
MORNING...LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEEKEND SYSTEM SHOULD
STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA WITH PROLONGED PRECIP
CHANCES AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DAMPENS IN A SIMILAR FASHION AND MEANDERS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. INSTABILITY MAY BECOME BASED
SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A BRIEF LULL IN SHORT WAVES IMPACTING THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS WEAK
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING BECOMES ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
COOLER LOW LEVEL PROFILES FOR MONDAY SHOULD BE LARGELY OFFSET BY
BETTER INSOLATION WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONABLE NORMS
FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STARTING
TO CONVERGE A BIT BETTER ON A PAIR OF COMPACT VORTS DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TIMING THESE WAVES DROPPING DOWN
THE RIDGE IS OF LOW RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS FORECAST
DISTANCE BUT DID MAINTAIN BROADBRUSHED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. DAY TO DAY TEMP VARIATIONS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT
SIGNIFICANT ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOT OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD ADVECTION
IS POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF STRONGER MID WEEK SHORT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO NORTHERN INDIANA.
EXTENDED THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS BASED ON THE LATEST
RADAR OBS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS AN EAST FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 280627
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
227 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S...AND THEN RISE
TO THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

RAW NIGHT COMING UP AS INTERESTING NR TERM TAKING SHAPE
DOWNSTREAM OF INTENSE DEEP CYCLONE OVR ERN NE. WHILE SFC OCCLUSION
RELEGATED WELL SOUTH FM NE MO SEWD INTO NRN KY...SIG LL THETA-E
BULDGE NOTED UP THROUGH H7 OVERNIGHT INADV OF THIS SYS OPENING EWD
THROUGH THE UPR MIDWEST. ROBUST MSTR CVRG CNTRD NR 850MB WOULD
SUGGEST THUNDER PROBABLE PARTICULARLY WRN PORTIONS OF CWA ALG NOSE
OF 30KT LLJ TWD MIDNIGHT. ADDNLY WK FLW ALOFT SUGGESTS SOME
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AMTS LIKELY SW HALF ESP WITHIN CONV CORES. ERLY
SFC GRADIENT ALREADY ON THE UPSWING AND WILL CONT TO INTENSIFY AS
UPSTREAM SYS APCHS W/GUSTY EAST WINDS XPCD AFT MIDNIGHT. GENERAL POP
TRANSITION/EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT LOOKS GOOD FOR THE MOST PART BUT WILL
EXPAND CAT MENTION TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRETY OF WRN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

WIDE BREADTH OF MOISTURE LAID OUT ALONG/S OF I70 CORRIDOR WITH
8-10 G/KG MIXING RATIOS TAPPED BY WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF NEGATIVELY
TILTED CENTRAL PLAINS VORTEX. NARROWING WARM SECTOR PINCHED OFF
SOUTH OF CWA AS SURFACE OCCLUSAL PROCESS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.
STILL 200-400 J/KG MUCAPE SUFFICIENT FOR TOKEN SLIGHT CHC TSRA AS
BANDED SHRA LIFTS/FILLS ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CONTS TO FILL ON THU AS IT LIFTS NEWD THEN EWD TO UPR MS VLY/INTO
WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES. SUSPECT ORPHANED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /AFTER
MID LVL DRY SLOT WRAPS INTO IN/IL THU AM/ TO MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND NOMINAL SHRA CHCS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS ESPCLY NORTHERN CWA ON THU ANTICIPATING
THICK CLOUD COVER/E-NERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

PARADE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. REX BLOCK WILL BE SET UP TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER
RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PROVINCES OF CANADA WHILE PARADE OF UPPER
LOWS MIGRATE OUT OF SOUTHWEST CONUS UNDERCUTTING THIS RIDGING.

FIRST WAVE WILL BE WEAKENING AND OPENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS WAVE AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AS A FEW HUNDREDTHS COULD BE SQUEEZED OUT
OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN ITS WAKE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO
CLEAR FRIDAY AND WILL STICK WITH TRANSITION FROM CLOUDY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY. STILL A RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SATURDAY AS SECOND UPPER
LOW IN SOUTHWEST CONUS GETS EJECTED AND REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW
UNDER BLOCKING RIDGE. IN THIS OFTEN REPEATED PATTERN A THETA E
SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET WHICH SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY EASTERLY FLOW
SATURDAY TO INITIALLY EAT AWAY AT PCPN SHIELD BUT STRONGER SURGE
LATER IN THE DAY SHOULD OVERCOME THE DRY LOWER LEVELS. REMNANT
WEAKENING UPPER LOW TO THEN CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASES NEXT WEEK WITH ECMWF DROPPING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE STRAIGHT OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON EASTERN SIDE OF LARGE RIDGE. THIS CLOSES OFF OVER WESTERN
LAKES LEADING TO COOL AND WET PATTERN. GFS HAS LESS ENERGY COMING
SOUTH AND BRINGS A WEAKER LOW OUT OF THE WEST INTO THE REGION. FOR
NOW WILL STAY WITH SUPERBLEND ENSEMBLE APPROACH UNTIL BETTER
AGREEMENT IS SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO NORTHERN INDIANA.
EXTENDED THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS BASED ON THE LATEST
RADAR OBS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS AN EAST FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 272349
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
749 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN DRYING OUT ON THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE 40S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN WEST CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

RAW NIGHT COMING UP AS INTERESTING NR TERM TAKING SHAPE
DOWNSTREAM OF INTENSE DEEP CYCLONE OVR ERN NE. WHILE SFC OCCLUSION
RELEGATED WELL SOUTH FM NE MO SEWD INTO NRN KY...SIG LL THETA-E
BULDGE NOTED UP THROUGH H7 OVERNIGHT INADV OF THIS SYS OPENING EWD
THROUGH THE UPR MIDWEST. ROBUST MSTR CVRG CNTRD NR 850MB WOULD
SUGGEST THUNDER PROBABLE PARTICULARLY WRN PORTIONS OF CWA ALG NOSE
OF 30KT LLJ TWD MIDNIGHT. ADDNLY WK FLW ALOFT SUGGESTS SOME
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AMTS LIKELY SW HALF ESP WITHIN CONV CORES. ERLY
SFC GRADIENT ALREADY ON THE UPSWING AND WILL CONT TO INTENSIFY AS
UPSTREAM SYS APCHS W/GUSTY EAST WINDS XPCD AFT MIDNIGHT. GENERAL POP
TRANSITION/EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT LOOKS GOOD FOR THE MOST PART BUT WILL
EXPAND CAT MENTION TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRETY OF WRN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

WIDE BREADTH OF MOISTURE LAID OUT ALONG/S OF I70 CORRIDOR WITH
8-10 G/KG MIXING RATIOS TAPPED BY WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF NEGATIVELY
TILTED CENTRAL PLAINS VORTEX. NARROWING WARM SECTOR PINCHED OFF
SOUTH OF CWA AS SURFACE OCCLUSAL PROCESS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.
STILL 200-400 J/KG MUCAPE SUFFICIENT FOR TOKEN SLIGHT CHC TSRA AS
BANDED SHRA LIFTS/FILLS ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CONTS TO FILL ON THU AS IT LIFTS NEWD THEN EWD TO UPR MS VLY/INTO
WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES. SUSPECT ORPHANED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /AFTER
MID LVL DRY SLOT WRAPS INTO IN/IL THU AM/ TO MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND NOMINAL SHRA CHCS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS ESPCLY NORTHERN CWA ON THU ANTICIPATING
THICK CLOUD COVER/E-NERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

PARADE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. REX BLOCK WILL BE SET UP TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER
RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PROVINCES OF CANADA WHILE PARADE OF UPPER
LOWS MIGRATE OUT OF SOUTHWEST CONUS UNDERCUTTING THIS RIDGING.

FIRST WAVE WILL BE WEAKENING AND OPENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS WAVE AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AS A FEW HUNDREDTHS COULD BE SQUEEZED OUT
OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN ITS WAKE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO
CLEAR FRIDAY AND WILL STICK WITH TRANSITION FROM CLOUDY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY. STILL A RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SATURDAY AS SECOND UPPER
LOW IN SOUTHWEST CONUS GETS EJECTED AND REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW
UNDER BLOCKING RIDGE. IN THIS OFTEN REPEATED PATTERN A THETA E
SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET WHICH SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY EASTERLY FLOW
SATURDAY TO INITIALLY EAT AWAY AT PCPN SHIELD BUT STRONGER SURGE
LATER IN THE DAY SHOULD OVERCOME THE DRY LOWER LEVELS. REMNANT
WEAKENING UPPER LOW TO THEN CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASES NEXT WEEK WITH ECMWF DROPPING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE STRAIGHT OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON EASTERN SIDE OF LARGE RIDGE. THIS CLOSES OFF OVER WESTERN
LAKES LEADING TO COOL AND WET PATTERN. GFS HAS LESS ENERGY COMING
SOUTH AND BRINGS A WEAKER LOW OUT OF THE WEST INTO THE REGION. FOR
NOW WILL STAY WITH SUPERBLEND ENSEMBLE APPROACH UNTIL BETTER
AGREEMENT IS SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR CONDS TO START WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AFT MID
EVENING IN CONJUNCTION W/NWD SPREAD/DVLPMNT OF SHRA/ISOLD THUNDER
OUT OF THE MID MS VALLEY. XPC MVFR CONDS DVLPG TWD MIDNIGHT AND
PERSISTING THEREAFTER AS PCPN SHIELD EXPANDS ACRS THE TERMINALS.
RAMPING ERLY GRADIENT WILL YIELD GUSTS AOA 20KTS AFT MIDNIGHT
THROUGH LT THU AM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 272349
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
749 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN DRYING OUT ON THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE 40S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN WEST CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

RAW NIGHT COMING UP AS INTERESTING NR TERM TAKING SHAPE
DOWNSTREAM OF INTENSE DEEP CYCLONE OVR ERN NE. WHILE SFC OCCLUSION
RELEGATED WELL SOUTH FM NE MO SEWD INTO NRN KY...SIG LL THETA-E
BULDGE NOTED UP THROUGH H7 OVERNIGHT INADV OF THIS SYS OPENING EWD
THROUGH THE UPR MIDWEST. ROBUST MSTR CVRG CNTRD NR 850MB WOULD
SUGGEST THUNDER PROBABLE PARTICULARLY WRN PORTIONS OF CWA ALG NOSE
OF 30KT LLJ TWD MIDNIGHT. ADDNLY WK FLW ALOFT SUGGESTS SOME
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AMTS LIKELY SW HALF ESP WITHIN CONV CORES. ERLY
SFC GRADIENT ALREADY ON THE UPSWING AND WILL CONT TO INTENSIFY AS
UPSTREAM SYS APCHS W/GUSTY EAST WINDS XPCD AFT MIDNIGHT. GENERAL POP
TRANSITION/EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT LOOKS GOOD FOR THE MOST PART BUT WILL
EXPAND CAT MENTION TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRETY OF WRN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

WIDE BREADTH OF MOISTURE LAID OUT ALONG/S OF I70 CORRIDOR WITH
8-10 G/KG MIXING RATIOS TAPPED BY WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF NEGATIVELY
TILTED CENTRAL PLAINS VORTEX. NARROWING WARM SECTOR PINCHED OFF
SOUTH OF CWA AS SURFACE OCCLUSAL PROCESS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.
STILL 200-400 J/KG MUCAPE SUFFICIENT FOR TOKEN SLIGHT CHC TSRA AS
BANDED SHRA LIFTS/FILLS ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CONTS TO FILL ON THU AS IT LIFTS NEWD THEN EWD TO UPR MS VLY/INTO
WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES. SUSPECT ORPHANED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /AFTER
MID LVL DRY SLOT WRAPS INTO IN/IL THU AM/ TO MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND NOMINAL SHRA CHCS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS ESPCLY NORTHERN CWA ON THU ANTICIPATING
THICK CLOUD COVER/E-NERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

PARADE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. REX BLOCK WILL BE SET UP TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER
RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PROVINCES OF CANADA WHILE PARADE OF UPPER
LOWS MIGRATE OUT OF SOUTHWEST CONUS UNDERCUTTING THIS RIDGING.

FIRST WAVE WILL BE WEAKENING AND OPENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS WAVE AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AS A FEW HUNDREDTHS COULD BE SQUEEZED OUT
OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN ITS WAKE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO
CLEAR FRIDAY AND WILL STICK WITH TRANSITION FROM CLOUDY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY. STILL A RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SATURDAY AS SECOND UPPER
LOW IN SOUTHWEST CONUS GETS EJECTED AND REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW
UNDER BLOCKING RIDGE. IN THIS OFTEN REPEATED PATTERN A THETA E
SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET WHICH SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY EASTERLY FLOW
SATURDAY TO INITIALLY EAT AWAY AT PCPN SHIELD BUT STRONGER SURGE
LATER IN THE DAY SHOULD OVERCOME THE DRY LOWER LEVELS. REMNANT
WEAKENING UPPER LOW TO THEN CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASES NEXT WEEK WITH ECMWF DROPPING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE STRAIGHT OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON EASTERN SIDE OF LARGE RIDGE. THIS CLOSES OFF OVER WESTERN
LAKES LEADING TO COOL AND WET PATTERN. GFS HAS LESS ENERGY COMING
SOUTH AND BRINGS A WEAKER LOW OUT OF THE WEST INTO THE REGION. FOR
NOW WILL STAY WITH SUPERBLEND ENSEMBLE APPROACH UNTIL BETTER
AGREEMENT IS SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR CONDS TO START WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AFT MID
EVENING IN CONJUNCTION W/NWD SPREAD/DVLPMNT OF SHRA/ISOLD THUNDER
OUT OF THE MID MS VALLEY. XPC MVFR CONDS DVLPG TWD MIDNIGHT AND
PERSISTING THEREAFTER AS PCPN SHIELD EXPANDS ACRS THE TERMINALS.
RAMPING ERLY GRADIENT WILL YIELD GUSTS AOA 20KTS AFT MIDNIGHT
THROUGH LT THU AM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 271944
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
344 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN DRYING OUT ON THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE 40S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN WEST CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

WIDE BREADTH OF MOISTURE LAID OUT ALONG/S OF I70 CORRIDOR WITH
8-10 G/KG MIXING RATIOS TAPPED BY WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF NEGATIVELY
TILTED CENTRAL PLAINS VORTEX. NARROWING WARM SECTOR PINCHED OFF
SOUTH OF CWA AS SURFACE OCCLUSAL PROCESS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.
STILL 200-400 J/KG MUCAPE SUFFICIENT FOR TOKEN SLIGHT CHC TSRA AS
BANDED SHRA LIFTS/FILLS ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CONTS TO FILL ON THU AS IT LIFTS NEWD THEN EWD TO UPR MS VLY/INTO
WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES. SUSPECT ORPHANED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /AFTER
MID LVL DRY SLOT WRAPS INTO IN/IL THU AM/ TO MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND NOMINAL SHRA CHCS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS ESPCLY NORTHERN CWA ON THU ANTICIPATING
THICK CLOUD COVER/E-NERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

PARADE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. REX BLOCK WILL BE SET UP TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER
RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PROVINCES OF CANADA WHILE PARADE OF UPPER
LOWS MIGRATE OUT OF SOUTHWEST CONUS UNDERCUTTING THIS RIDGING.

FIRST WAVE WILL BE WEAKENING AND OPENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS WAVE AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AS A FEW HUNDREDTHS COULD BE SQUEEZED OUT
OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN ITS WAKE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO
CLEAR FRIDAY AND WILL STICK WITH TRANSITION FROM CLOUDY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY. STILL A RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SATURDAY AS SECOND UPPER
LOW IN SOUTHWEST CONUS GETS EJECTED AND REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW
UNDER BLOCKING RIDGE. IN THIS OFTEN REPEATED PATTERN A THETA E
SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET WHICH SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY EASTERLY FLOW
SATURDAY TO INITIALLY EAT AWAY AT PCPN SHIELD BUT STRONGER SURGE
LATER IN THE DAY SHOULD OVERCOME THE DRY LOWER LEVELS. REMNANT
WEAKENING UPPER LOW TO THEN CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASES NEXT WEEK WITH ECMWF DROPPING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE STRAIGHT OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON EASTERN SIDE OF LARGE RIDGE. THIS CLOSES OFF OVER WESTERN
LAKES LEADING TO COOL AND WET PATTERN. GFS HAS LESS ENERGY COMING
SOUTH AND BRINGS A WEAKER LOW OUT OF THE WEST INTO THE REGION. FOR
NOW WILL STAY WITH SUPERBLEND ENSEMBLE APPROACH UNTIL BETTER
AGREEMENT IS SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

MID LEVEL VORTEX TO LIFT NE IN TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
WITH BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA LIFTING INTO NRN INDIANA ALONG WITH
CIGS DETERIORATING TO IFR RANGE. LINGERING MOISTURE ONCE PRECIP
HAS CLEARED WILL LIKELY AFFORD AT LEAST FUELING/ALTERNATE CIGS
INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 271758
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
158 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN DRYING OUT ON THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE 40S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS HELPING TO SPREAD CHILLY AIR
INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO DEEPEN A
SHALLOW WEDGE OF COLD AIR NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVE. HOWEVER...A
DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM UPSTREAM WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER EAST AND
LIMIT FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE COLD AIR. THIS COOL AND DRY AIR WILL
BE PROMINENT IN HOLDING BACK THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TODAY
GIVEN SLOWER NORTHEAST ADVANCEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. THE LATEST NAM/BUFKIT APPEARS ON TRACK HOLDING BACK
RAIN UNTIL AFTER THIS EVENING OVER MOST AREAS. IN THIS REGARD...HAVE
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST.
ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE MID MS
RVR VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS PV ANOMALY SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE ATTENUATED ACROSS THE AREA. SFC
REFLECTION/OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD BE WORKING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THURSDAY. A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY TAPERING THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER WAVE
CONTINUES TO DAMPEN/SHIFT EASTWARD. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN BETTER POTENTIAL OF LARGER SCALE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH BOUNDARY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SFC OR
NEAR SFC BASED INSTABILITY. CONSIDERED REMOVING THUNDER ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN THE THUNDER MENTION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. A BRIEF WINDOW MAY EXIST ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR A STRONG STORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN MIXING HEIGHTS/INSTABILITY PERSISTS...AND GREATER
POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA...A FAIRLY SIZABLE NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO MID-
UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.

UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS NEXT
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS. NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN CANADA ANTICYCLONE WILL LIMIT
RECOVERY IN TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY FROM UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...BUT A LITTLE COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHWEST CONUS
TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY...BUT LARGE SCALE
BLOCKING PATTERN SHOULD LIMIT PROGRESSION/INTEGRITY OF THIS TROUGH
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS LOCAL AREA. NONETHELESS...AN IMPRESSIVE
LOW/MID LEVEL THETAE SURGE SHOULD WORK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
SUPPORTING INCREASING RAIN SHOWER CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. 00Z GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT GEFS MEANS REMAIN A BIT MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH THIS FEATURE. HARD TO TOTALLY DISCOUNT THE SLIGHTLY
MORE SUPPRESSED IDEA OF GFS GIVEN BLOCKING NATURE TO THIS PATTERN
BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST CONTINUITY OF BLENDED APPROACH TO
POPS FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH/HIGH CHANCE NORTH.

REX BLOCK DEVELOPING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS NORTHWEST
CONUS/SOUTHWEST CANADA SHOULD RESULT IN A PRIMARILY NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND
SEASONABLE NORMS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP
POTENTIAL POST-SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

MID LEVEL VORTEX TO LIFT NE IN TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
WITH BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA LIFTING INTO NRN INDIANA ALONG WITH
CIGS DETERIORATING TO IFR RANGE. LINGERING MOISTURE ONCE PRECIP
HAS CLEARED WILL LIKELY AFFORD AT LEAST FUELING/ALTERNATE CIGS
INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 271758
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
158 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN DRYING OUT ON THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE 40S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS HELPING TO SPREAD CHILLY AIR
INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO DEEPEN A
SHALLOW WEDGE OF COLD AIR NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVE. HOWEVER...A
DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM UPSTREAM WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER EAST AND
LIMIT FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE COLD AIR. THIS COOL AND DRY AIR WILL
BE PROMINENT IN HOLDING BACK THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TODAY
GIVEN SLOWER NORTHEAST ADVANCEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. THE LATEST NAM/BUFKIT APPEARS ON TRACK HOLDING BACK
RAIN UNTIL AFTER THIS EVENING OVER MOST AREAS. IN THIS REGARD...HAVE
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST.
ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE MID MS
RVR VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS PV ANOMALY SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE ATTENUATED ACROSS THE AREA. SFC
REFLECTION/OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD BE WORKING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THURSDAY. A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY TAPERING THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER WAVE
CONTINUES TO DAMPEN/SHIFT EASTWARD. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN BETTER POTENTIAL OF LARGER SCALE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH BOUNDARY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SFC OR
NEAR SFC BASED INSTABILITY. CONSIDERED REMOVING THUNDER ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN THE THUNDER MENTION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. A BRIEF WINDOW MAY EXIST ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR A STRONG STORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN MIXING HEIGHTS/INSTABILITY PERSISTS...AND GREATER
POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA...A FAIRLY SIZABLE NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO MID-
UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.

UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS NEXT
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS. NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN CANADA ANTICYCLONE WILL LIMIT
RECOVERY IN TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY FROM UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...BUT A LITTLE COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHWEST CONUS
TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY...BUT LARGE SCALE
BLOCKING PATTERN SHOULD LIMIT PROGRESSION/INTEGRITY OF THIS TROUGH
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS LOCAL AREA. NONETHELESS...AN IMPRESSIVE
LOW/MID LEVEL THETAE SURGE SHOULD WORK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
SUPPORTING INCREASING RAIN SHOWER CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. 00Z GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT GEFS MEANS REMAIN A BIT MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH THIS FEATURE. HARD TO TOTALLY DISCOUNT THE SLIGHTLY
MORE SUPPRESSED IDEA OF GFS GIVEN BLOCKING NATURE TO THIS PATTERN
BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST CONTINUITY OF BLENDED APPROACH TO
POPS FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH/HIGH CHANCE NORTH.

REX BLOCK DEVELOPING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS NORTHWEST
CONUS/SOUTHWEST CANADA SHOULD RESULT IN A PRIMARILY NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND
SEASONABLE NORMS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP
POTENTIAL POST-SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

MID LEVEL VORTEX TO LIFT NE IN TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
WITH BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA LIFTING INTO NRN INDIANA ALONG WITH
CIGS DETERIORATING TO IFR RANGE. LINGERING MOISTURE ONCE PRECIP
HAS CLEARED WILL LIKELY AFFORD AT LEAST FUELING/ALTERNATE CIGS
INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 271040
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
640 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

DRY AND COOL AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DIP INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME SUN LATER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO AROUND 60. RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS HELPING TO SPREAD CHILLY AIR
INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO DEEPEN A
SHALLOW WEDGE OF COLD AIR NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVE. HOWEVER...A
DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM UPSTREAM WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER EAST AND
LIMIT FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE COLD AIR. THIS COOL AND DRY AIR WILL
BE PROMINENT IN HOLDING BACK THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TODAY
GIVEN SLOWER NORTHEAST ADVANCEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. THE LATEST NAM/BUFKIT APPEARS ON TRACK HOLDING BACK
RAIN UNTIL AFTER THIS EVENING OVER MOST AREAS. IN THIS REGARD...HAVE
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST.
ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE MID MS
RVR VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS PV ANOMALY SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE ATTENUATED ACROSS THE AREA. SFC
REFLECTION/OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD BE WORKING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THURSDAY. A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY TAPERING THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER WAVE
CONTINUES TO DAMPEN/SHIFT EASTWARD. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN BETTER POTENTIAL OF LARGER SCALE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH BOUNDARY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SFC OR
NEAR SFC BASED INSTABILITY. CONSIDERED REMOVING THUNDER ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN THE THUNDER MENTION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. A BRIEF WINDOW MAY EXIST ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR A STRONG STORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN MIXING HEIGHTS/INSTABILITY PERSISTS...AND GREATER
POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA...A FAIRLY SIZABLE NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO MID-
UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.

UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS NEXT
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS. NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN CANADA ANTICYCLONE WILL LIMIT
RECOVERY IN TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY FROM UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...BUT A LITTLE COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHWEST CONUS
TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY...BUT LARGE SCALE
BLOCKING PATTERN SHOULD LIMIT PROGRESSION/INTEGRITY OF THIS TROUGH
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS LOCAL AREA. NONETHELESS...AN IMPRESSIVE
LOW/MID LEVEL THETAE SURGE SHOULD WORK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
SUPPORTING INCREASING RAIN SHOWER CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. 00Z GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT GEFS MEANS REMAIN A BIT MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH THIS FEATURE. HARD TO TOTALLY DISCOUNT THE SLIGHTLY
MORE SUPPRESSED IDEA OF GFS GIVEN BLOCKING NATURE TO THIS PATTERN
BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST CONTINUITY OF BLENDED APPROACH TO
POPS FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH/HIGH CHANCE NORTH.

REX BLOCK DEVELOPING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS NORTHWEST
CONUS/SOUTHWEST CANADA SHOULD RESULT IN A PRIMARILY NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND
SEASONABLE NORMS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP
POTENTIAL POST-SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

IFR AND LOWER END MVFR CIGS PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAKE FOR POOR MIXING
THROUGH MIDDAY AND MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY THE 14Z-15Z
TIMEFRAME. DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS NEAR FUEL ALTERNATE
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH EVENTUAL
TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MIXING
INCREASES. EAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 20
KNOTS. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS
STRONGER THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION WORKS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE
BACK TO IFR TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL MAINTAIN TREND
BACK TO MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...SKIPPER/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 271040
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
640 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

DRY AND COOL AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DIP INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME SUN LATER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO AROUND 60. RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS HELPING TO SPREAD CHILLY AIR
INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO DEEPEN A
SHALLOW WEDGE OF COLD AIR NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVE. HOWEVER...A
DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM UPSTREAM WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER EAST AND
LIMIT FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE COLD AIR. THIS COOL AND DRY AIR WILL
BE PROMINENT IN HOLDING BACK THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TODAY
GIVEN SLOWER NORTHEAST ADVANCEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. THE LATEST NAM/BUFKIT APPEARS ON TRACK HOLDING BACK
RAIN UNTIL AFTER THIS EVENING OVER MOST AREAS. IN THIS REGARD...HAVE
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST.
ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE MID MS
RVR VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS PV ANOMALY SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE ATTENUATED ACROSS THE AREA. SFC
REFLECTION/OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD BE WORKING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THURSDAY. A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY TAPERING THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER WAVE
CONTINUES TO DAMPEN/SHIFT EASTWARD. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN BETTER POTENTIAL OF LARGER SCALE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH BOUNDARY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SFC OR
NEAR SFC BASED INSTABILITY. CONSIDERED REMOVING THUNDER ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN THE THUNDER MENTION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. A BRIEF WINDOW MAY EXIST ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR A STRONG STORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN MIXING HEIGHTS/INSTABILITY PERSISTS...AND GREATER
POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA...A FAIRLY SIZABLE NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO MID-
UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.

UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS NEXT
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS. NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN CANADA ANTICYCLONE WILL LIMIT
RECOVERY IN TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY FROM UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...BUT A LITTLE COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHWEST CONUS
TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY...BUT LARGE SCALE
BLOCKING PATTERN SHOULD LIMIT PROGRESSION/INTEGRITY OF THIS TROUGH
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS LOCAL AREA. NONETHELESS...AN IMPRESSIVE
LOW/MID LEVEL THETAE SURGE SHOULD WORK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
SUPPORTING INCREASING RAIN SHOWER CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. 00Z GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT GEFS MEANS REMAIN A BIT MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH THIS FEATURE. HARD TO TOTALLY DISCOUNT THE SLIGHTLY
MORE SUPPRESSED IDEA OF GFS GIVEN BLOCKING NATURE TO THIS PATTERN
BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST CONTINUITY OF BLENDED APPROACH TO
POPS FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH/HIGH CHANCE NORTH.

REX BLOCK DEVELOPING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS NORTHWEST
CONUS/SOUTHWEST CANADA SHOULD RESULT IN A PRIMARILY NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND
SEASONABLE NORMS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP
POTENTIAL POST-SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

IFR AND LOWER END MVFR CIGS PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAKE FOR POOR MIXING
THROUGH MIDDAY AND MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY THE 14Z-15Z
TIMEFRAME. DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS NEAR FUEL ALTERNATE
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH EVENTUAL
TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MIXING
INCREASES. EAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 20
KNOTS. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS
STRONGER THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION WORKS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE
BACK TO IFR TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL MAINTAIN TREND
BACK TO MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...SKIPPER/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 270838
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
438 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

DRY AND COOL AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DIP INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME SUN LATER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO AROUND 60. RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS HELPING TO SPREAD CHILLY AIR
INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO DEEPEN A
SHALLOW WEDGE OF COLD AIR NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVE. HOWEVER...A
DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM UPSTREAM WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER EAST AND
LIMIT FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE COLD AIR. THIS COOL AND DRY AIR WILL
BE PROMINENT IN HOLDING BACK THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TODAY
GIVEN SLOWER NORTHEAST ADVANCEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. THE LATEST NAM/BUFKIT APPEARS ON TRACK HOLDING BACK
RAIN UNTIL AFTER THIS EVENING OVER MOST AREAS. IN THIS REGARD...HAVE
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST.
ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE MID MS
RVR VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS PV ANOMALY SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE ATTENUATED ACROSS THE AREA. SFC
REFLECTION/OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD BE WORKING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THURSDAY. A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY TAPERING THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER WAVE
CONTINUES TO DAMPEN/SHIFT EASTWARD. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN BETTER POTENTIAL OF LARGER SCALE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH BOUNDARY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SFC OR
NEAR SFC BASED INSTABILITY. CONSIDERED REMOVING THUNDER ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN THE THUNDER MENTION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. A BRIEF WINDOW MAY EXIST ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR A STRONG STORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN MIXING HEIGHTS/INSTABILITY PERSISTS...AND GREATER
POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA...A FAIRLY SIZABLE NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO MID-
UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.

UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS NEXT
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS. NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN CANADA ANTICYCLONE WILL LIMIT
RECOVERY IN TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY FROM UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...BUT A LITTLE COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHWEST CONUS
TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY...BUT LARGE SCALE
BLOCKING PATTERN SHOULD LIMIT PROGRESSION/INTEGRITY OF THIS TROUGH
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS LOCAL AREA. NONETHELESS...AN IMPRESSIVE
LOW/MID LEVEL THETAE SURGE SHOULD WORK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
SUPPORTING INCREASING RAIN SHOWER CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. 00Z GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT GEFS MEANS REMAIN A BIT MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH THIS FEATURE. HARD TO TOTALLY DISCOUNT THE SLIGHTLY
MORE SUPPRESSED IDEA OF GFS GIVEN BLOCKING NATURE TO THIS PATTERN
BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST CONTINUITY OF BLENDED APPROACH TO
POPS FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH/HIGH CHANCE NORTH.

REX BLOCK DEVELOPING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS NORTHWEST
CONUS/SOUTHWEST CANADA SHOULD RESULT IN A PRIMARILY NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND
SEASONABLE NORMS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP
POTENTIAL POST-SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

LINGERING MVFR CIGS WERE OVER NRN INDIANA INCLUDING BOTH THE SBN
AND FWA TERMINALS. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WAS RECEIVED AT OUR OFFICE
WITH THE HOUR...BUT APPEARED TO BE VERY LOCAL AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PERSIST. INITIALLY... A VERY DRY WEDGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR
WILL ATTEMPT TO DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA...HOWEVER...A
DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM UPSTREAM WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER
FURTHER EAST AND LIMIT FURTHER DEEPENING OF THIS WEDGE. HOWEVER...
HAVE CONTINUED TO HOLD OF INTRODUCING PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO SLOWER NORTHEAST ADVANCEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AND SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE LATEST NAM/BUFKIT HOLDS
OFF PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 04...SO FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WENT OPTIMIST
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 270838
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
438 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

DRY AND COOL AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DIP INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME SUN LATER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO AROUND 60. RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS HELPING TO SPREAD CHILLY AIR
INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO DEEPEN A
SHALLOW WEDGE OF COLD AIR NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVE. HOWEVER...A
DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM UPSTREAM WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER EAST AND
LIMIT FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE COLD AIR. THIS COOL AND DRY AIR WILL
BE PROMINENT IN HOLDING BACK THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION TODAY
GIVEN SLOWER NORTHEAST ADVANCEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. THE LATEST NAM/BUFKIT APPEARS ON TRACK HOLDING BACK
RAIN UNTIL AFTER THIS EVENING OVER MOST AREAS. IN THIS REGARD...HAVE
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST.
ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE MID MS
RVR VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS PV ANOMALY SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE ATTENUATED ACROSS THE AREA. SFC
REFLECTION/OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD BE WORKING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THURSDAY. A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY TAPERING THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER WAVE
CONTINUES TO DAMPEN/SHIFT EASTWARD. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN BETTER POTENTIAL OF LARGER SCALE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH BOUNDARY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SFC OR
NEAR SFC BASED INSTABILITY. CONSIDERED REMOVING THUNDER ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN THE THUNDER MENTION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH. A BRIEF WINDOW MAY EXIST ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR A STRONG STORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN MIXING HEIGHTS/INSTABILITY PERSISTS...AND GREATER
POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA...A FAIRLY SIZABLE NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS IS
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO MID-
UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.

UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS NEXT
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS. NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN CANADA ANTICYCLONE WILL LIMIT
RECOVERY IN TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY FROM UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S...BUT A LITTLE COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHWEST CONUS
TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY...BUT LARGE SCALE
BLOCKING PATTERN SHOULD LIMIT PROGRESSION/INTEGRITY OF THIS TROUGH
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS LOCAL AREA. NONETHELESS...AN IMPRESSIVE
LOW/MID LEVEL THETAE SURGE SHOULD WORK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
SUPPORTING INCREASING RAIN SHOWER CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. 00Z GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT GEFS MEANS REMAIN A BIT MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH THIS FEATURE. HARD TO TOTALLY DISCOUNT THE SLIGHTLY
MORE SUPPRESSED IDEA OF GFS GIVEN BLOCKING NATURE TO THIS PATTERN
BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST CONTINUITY OF BLENDED APPROACH TO
POPS FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH/HIGH CHANCE NORTH.

REX BLOCK DEVELOPING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS NORTHWEST
CONUS/SOUTHWEST CANADA SHOULD RESULT IN A PRIMARILY NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPS RIGHT AROUND
SEASONABLE NORMS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS. PRECIP
POTENTIAL POST-SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

LINGERING MVFR CIGS WERE OVER NRN INDIANA INCLUDING BOTH THE SBN
AND FWA TERMINALS. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WAS RECEIVED AT OUR OFFICE
WITH THE HOUR...BUT APPEARED TO BE VERY LOCAL AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PERSIST. INITIALLY... A VERY DRY WEDGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR
WILL ATTEMPT TO DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA...HOWEVER...A
DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM UPSTREAM WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER
FURTHER EAST AND LIMIT FURTHER DEEPENING OF THIS WEDGE. HOWEVER...
HAVE CONTINUED TO HOLD OF INTRODUCING PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO SLOWER NORTHEAST ADVANCEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AND SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE LATEST NAM/BUFKIT HOLDS
OFF PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 04...SO FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WENT OPTIMIST
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 270606
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
206 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

DRY AND COOL AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DIP INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME SUN LATER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE 60S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN SPREADING
NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST LATE TODAY AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF CWA WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E
SUPPRESSION TO MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WITH E/W ORIENTED SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION ALONG/S I70 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SUSPECT
LATENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/SHALLOW NATURE OF POST FRONTAL MOISTURE
SCOUR AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME FOCUS FOR STRATUS
REFORMATION/SWD EXPANSION LATE TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER
SFC TEMPS/CLOSER TO BLEND. ALSO HAVE RELEGATED POPS MUCH LATER TO
PRIMARILY LATE AFTERNOON GIVEN TEMPORARY MID LEVEL LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING AS COMPLEX CENTRAL ROCKIES/SWRN STATES VORTEX LIFTS THROUGH
PLAINS/TOWARDS MID MS VLY IN HIGHLY NEG TILT FASHION. HIEST POPS IN
SWRN CWA LATE AFTERNOON IN PROXIMITY TO STRONGEST 1000-850MB
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE...THOUGH CONVECTION TO REMAIN QUITE
ELEVATED/NON SEVERE OWING TO COOL BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

BEST SURGE OF 295-300K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ALSO SUPPORTED BY LOW-MIDLEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION WEDNESDAY EVENING AS MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
AND BETTER S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. EMBEDDED VORTICITY LOBE WILL
ALSO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND COMBINATION OF
THESE FACTORS SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN DESPITE DRY
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN OUR W/SW
COUNTIES WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS MAINTAINED. CHANCES NOT AS HIGH IN
OUR NE WHERE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY EAT
INTO PRECIP AMOUNTS A BIT. SCT SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS MAIN PV ANOMALY OPENS UP AND SHEARS
EASTWARD. FORCING BECOMES RATHER MUDDLED DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
STILL EXPECT PERIODIC LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG
EVENTUAL TRACK OF DECAYING VORT MAX. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE
GIVEN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE BUT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD
AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE FRONT DRAPED OVER OUR AREA.
MICHIGAN REMAINS LOCKED UNDER INVERSION WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOW
50S WHILE OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES MIX OUT TO LOW 70S. HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL EITHER WAY DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY FRONT SETS UP.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SECOND
TROUGH...CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL EJECT
EASTWARD IN ALMOST IDENTICAL FASHION TO MIDWEEK SYSTEM. ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS MIDLEVEL VORT MAX SHEARS EAST.
12Z MODEL SUITE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BUT EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS
OUT AND STILL CURRENTLY OVER THE DATA-SPARSE NORTH PACIFIC. RAISED
POPS A BIT BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE POSSIBLE. ALSO SIMILAR TO
MIDWEEK...SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES LOW GIVEN CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK/POSITION OF SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN JUST
SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMO AND NO FROST CONCERNS AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

LINGERING MVFR CIGS WERE OVER NRN INDIANA INCLUDING BOTH THE SBN
AND FWA TERMINALS. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WAS RECEIVED AT OUR OFFICE
WITH THE HOUR...BUT APPEARED TO BE VERY LOCAL AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PERSIST. INITIALLY... A VERY DRY WEDGE OF COOL CANADIAN AIR
WILL ATTEMPT TO DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA...HOWEVER...A
DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM UPSTREAM WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER
FURTHER EAST AND LIMIT FURTHER DEEPENING OF THIS WEDGE. HOWEVER...
HAVE CONTINUED TO HOLD OF INTRODUCING PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO SLOWER NORTHEAST ADVANCEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AND SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE LATEST NAM/BUFKIT HOLDS
OFF PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 04...SO FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WENT OPTIMIST
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 262348
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
748 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

DRY AND COOL AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DIP INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME SUN ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE 60S. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN INDIANA. MOST AREAS WILL THEN HAVE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF CWA WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E
SUPPRESSION TO MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WITH E/W ORIENTED SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION ALONG/S I70 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SUSPECT
LATENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/SHALLOW NATURE OF POST FRONTAL MOISTURE
SCOUR AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME FOCUS FOR STRATUS
REFORMATION/SWD EXPANSION LATE TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER
SFC TEMPS/CLOSER TO BLEND. ALSO HAVE RELEGATED POPS MUCH LATER TO
PRIMARILY LATE AFTERNOON GIVEN TEMPORARY MID LEVEL LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING AS COMPLEX CENTRAL ROCKIES/SWRN STATES VORTEX LIFTS THROUGH
PLAINS/TOWARDS MID MS VLY IN HIGHLY NEG TILT FASHION. HIEST POPS IN
SWRN CWA LATE AFTERNOON IN PROXIMITY TO STRONGEST 1000-850MB
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE...THOUGH CONVECTION TO REMAIN QUITE
ELEVATED/NON SEVERE OWING TO COOL BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

BEST SURGE OF 295-300K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ALSO SUPPORTED BY LOW-MIDLEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION WEDNESDAY EVENING AS MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
AND BETTER S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. EMBEDDED VORTICITY LOBE WILL
ALSO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND COMBINATION OF
THESE FACTORS SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN DESPITE DRY
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN OUR W/SW
COUNTIES WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS MAINTAINED. CHANCES NOT AS HIGH IN
OUR NE WHERE LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY EAT
INTO PRECIP AMOUNTS A BIT. SCT SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS MAIN PV ANOMALY OPENS UP AND SHEARS
EASTWARD. FORCING BECOMES RATHER MUDDLED DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
STILL EXPECT PERIODIC LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG
EVENTUAL TRACK OF DECAYING VORT MAX. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE
GIVEN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE BUT WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD
AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE FRONT DRAPED OVER OUR AREA.
MICHIGAN REMAINS LOCKED UNDER INVERSION WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOW
50S WHILE OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES MIX OUT TO LOW 70S. HIGH BUST
POTENTIAL EITHER WAY DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY FRONT SETS UP.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SECOND
TROUGH...CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL EJECT
EASTWARD IN ALMOST IDENTICAL FASHION TO MIDWEEK SYSTEM. ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AS MIDLEVEL VORT MAX SHEARS EAST.
12Z MODEL SUITE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BUT EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS
OUT AND STILL CURRENTLY OVER THE DATA-SPARSE NORTH PACIFIC. RAISED
POPS A BIT BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE POSSIBLE. ALSO SIMILAR TO
MIDWEEK...SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES LOW GIVEN CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK/POSITION OF SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH TEMPS REMAIN JUST
SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMO AND NO FROST CONCERNS AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

MOIST BNDRY LYR UNDERNEATH STOUT POST FNTL THERMAL INVERSION WILL
ALLOW LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND XPC IT WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD SOUTH INTO KFWA TERMINAL THIS EVENING. OTRWS LL FLW XPCD TO
VEER SERLY ON WED W/LOW CIGS MIXING OUT THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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