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000
FXUS63 KIWX 250018
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
718 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 DEGREES. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

LATEST OBS INDICATE WINDS CONTG TO GUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS NRN PORTION OF CWA. BUFR DATA SUGGEST THIS MAY CONT UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT... BUT WITH GUSTS ALREADY BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS SRN PORTION OF CWA... AND INTENSE LOW LIFTING SLOWLY NE
AWAY FROM THE AREA... EXPECT THE DIMINISHING WIND TREND WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE EVE... SO JUST EXTENDED THE WIND
ADVISORY TIL 10PM ACROSS THE NW... AND REPLACED THE HIGH WIND
WARNING WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE NE TIL 10 PM. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

EXTREME PRESSURE RISE CENTROID ON ORDER OF 7-8MB/3 HR LIFTING NWD
THROUGH NRN/NERN CWA ATTM. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE /NOTABLY
PROVIDING 12-16F/3 HR TEMP DROP/ AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OF
0-1 KM LYR AS DEEPER COLD AIR PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH CWA...WL
ALLOW WIND HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AT 00 UTC...WITH STILL NMRS 40-55
MPH GUSTS PAST 90 MINUTES...THOUGH CONCEDE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH REMAINING FEW HOURS. HEIGHTENED MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
COINCIDENT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHED WELL NORTH OF CWA...WCNTL
MI TRAILING INTO SRN WI. STILL ANTICIPATE NWRN CWA ALONG LEADING
EDGE AS FEATURE PIVOTS PRIOR TO NE EJECTION FOR SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT OF SHSN...WITH ONLY MINOR LOW POP/COVERAGE ELSEWHERE
PRIMARILY ASSOCD WITH ENHANCED POCKETS OF CAA AS DRY SLOT
PRESENCE TO REMAIN LARGE/MITIGATING FACTOR. TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND
SPCLY 12-15 UTC SOME MINOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUPPORTIVE OF HIR
POPS THOUGH LOW QPF/ACCUMS EXPECTED. LK/8H DELTA T IN 15-17C
RANGE WITH MUTED LK INDUCED CAPE /LTE 250 J/KG/ AND LK INDUCED
EQL CAPPED TO THE 5-6 KFT AGL RANGE...PER BLEND OF KSBN/KLWA 4KM
NAM SOUNDINGS. LACK OF SUPERSATURATION WITHIN SHALLOW/DISJOINTED
DGZ TO FURTHER PROVIDE PUTRID SNOW EFFICIENCIES. MINOR CHANGES TO
TEMPS WITH LITTLE DIURNAL RISE RESPONSE EXPECTED TUE WITH MAX T
SOME 20-27F COLDER OVR MON MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLD AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. THE PATTERN IS FAST MOVING AND THE MODELS VARY IN THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE INCOMING WAVES FOR MIDWEEK.
REGARDLESS THE CONTINUED SURGE OF REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL KEEP
SKIES OVERCAST WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLIPPER SYSTEM EXISTS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY AND THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER FAST WARMUP FRIDAY-SUNDAY. AGAIN...MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT
DIVERGENT IN ABSOLUTE SOLUTIONS FOR THE COMING WEEKEND...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO EJECT A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER RAINFALL EVENT
BEGINNING SATURDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MODERATE RAINFALL. AS
WITH THIS PAST WEEKENDS EVENT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE THERMAL
STRUCTURE WILL SUPPORT ALL RAIN. IN KEEPING WITH
CONSISTENCY...HAVE KEPT A MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REPEATING PATTERN...COLD AIR
WILL CHARGE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WHILE THE TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THE
PATTERN IS TOO SIMILAR TO BE IGNORED AND HAVE KEPT WITH THE MODEL
OUTPUT OF COOLER LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

STRONG SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND VEER TO WEST
OVERNIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH TUE
MORNING. AS FLOW WEAKENS ON TUE SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY REMAIN TRAPPED
BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION... SO MAINTAINED HIGH MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY IN THE LATEST TAF.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>009-012-014-016>018.

MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 250018
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
718 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 DEGREES. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

LATEST OBS INDICATE WINDS CONTG TO GUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS NRN PORTION OF CWA. BUFR DATA SUGGEST THIS MAY CONT UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT... BUT WITH GUSTS ALREADY BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS SRN PORTION OF CWA... AND INTENSE LOW LIFTING SLOWLY NE
AWAY FROM THE AREA... EXPECT THE DIMINISHING WIND TREND WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE EVE... SO JUST EXTENDED THE WIND
ADVISORY TIL 10PM ACROSS THE NW... AND REPLACED THE HIGH WIND
WARNING WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE NE TIL 10 PM. NO OTHER
CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

EXTREME PRESSURE RISE CENTROID ON ORDER OF 7-8MB/3 HR LIFTING NWD
THROUGH NRN/NERN CWA ATTM. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE /NOTABLY
PROVIDING 12-16F/3 HR TEMP DROP/ AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OF
0-1 KM LYR AS DEEPER COLD AIR PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH CWA...WL
ALLOW WIND HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AT 00 UTC...WITH STILL NMRS 40-55
MPH GUSTS PAST 90 MINUTES...THOUGH CONCEDE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH REMAINING FEW HOURS. HEIGHTENED MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
COINCIDENT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHED WELL NORTH OF CWA...WCNTL
MI TRAILING INTO SRN WI. STILL ANTICIPATE NWRN CWA ALONG LEADING
EDGE AS FEATURE PIVOTS PRIOR TO NE EJECTION FOR SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT OF SHSN...WITH ONLY MINOR LOW POP/COVERAGE ELSEWHERE
PRIMARILY ASSOCD WITH ENHANCED POCKETS OF CAA AS DRY SLOT
PRESENCE TO REMAIN LARGE/MITIGATING FACTOR. TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND
SPCLY 12-15 UTC SOME MINOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUPPORTIVE OF HIR
POPS THOUGH LOW QPF/ACCUMS EXPECTED. LK/8H DELTA T IN 15-17C
RANGE WITH MUTED LK INDUCED CAPE /LTE 250 J/KG/ AND LK INDUCED
EQL CAPPED TO THE 5-6 KFT AGL RANGE...PER BLEND OF KSBN/KLWA 4KM
NAM SOUNDINGS. LACK OF SUPERSATURATION WITHIN SHALLOW/DISJOINTED
DGZ TO FURTHER PROVIDE PUTRID SNOW EFFICIENCIES. MINOR CHANGES TO
TEMPS WITH LITTLE DIURNAL RISE RESPONSE EXPECTED TUE WITH MAX T
SOME 20-27F COLDER OVR MON MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLD AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. THE PATTERN IS FAST MOVING AND THE MODELS VARY IN THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE INCOMING WAVES FOR MIDWEEK.
REGARDLESS THE CONTINUED SURGE OF REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL KEEP
SKIES OVERCAST WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLIPPER SYSTEM EXISTS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY AND THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER FAST WARMUP FRIDAY-SUNDAY. AGAIN...MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT
DIVERGENT IN ABSOLUTE SOLUTIONS FOR THE COMING WEEKEND...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO EJECT A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER RAINFALL EVENT
BEGINNING SATURDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MODERATE RAINFALL. AS
WITH THIS PAST WEEKENDS EVENT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE THERMAL
STRUCTURE WILL SUPPORT ALL RAIN. IN KEEPING WITH
CONSISTENCY...HAVE KEPT A MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REPEATING PATTERN...COLD AIR
WILL CHARGE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WHILE THE TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THE
PATTERN IS TOO SIMILAR TO BE IGNORED AND HAVE KEPT WITH THE MODEL
OUTPUT OF COOLER LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

STRONG SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND VEER TO WEST
OVERNIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH TUE
MORNING. AS FLOW WEAKENS ON TUE SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY REMAIN TRAPPED
BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION... SO MAINTAINED HIGH MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY IN THE LATEST TAF.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>009-012-014-016>018.

MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 242103
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
403 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 DEGREES. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

EXTREME PRESSURE RISE CENTROID ON ORDER OF 7-8MB/3 HR LIFTING NWD
THROUGH NRN/NERN CWA ATTM. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE /NOTABLY
PROVIDING 12-16F/3 HR TEMP DROP/ AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OF
0-1 KM LYR AS DEEPER COLD AIR PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH CWA...WL
ALLOW WIND HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AT 00 UTC...WITH STILL NMRS 40-55
MPH GUSTS PAST 90 MINUTES...THOUGH CONCEDE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH REMAINING FEW HOURS. HEIGHTENED MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
COINCIDENT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHED WELL NORTH OF CWA...WCNTL
MI TRAILING INTO SRN WI. STILL ANTICIPATE NWRN CWA ALONG LEADING
EDGE AS FEATURE PIVOTS PRIOR TO NE EJECTION FOR SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT OF SHSN...WITH ONLY MINOR LOW POP/COVERAGE ELSEWHERE
PRIMARILY ASSOCD WITH ENHANCED POCKETS OF CAA AS DRY SLOT
PRESENCE TO REMAIN LARGE/MITIGATING FACTOR. TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND
SPCLY 12-15 UTC SOME MINOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUPPORTIVE OF HIR
POPS THOUGH LOW QPF/ACCUMS EXPECTED. LK/8H DELTA T IN 15-17C
RANGE WITH MUTED LK INDUCED CAPE /LTE 250 J/KG/ AND LK INDUCED
EQL CAPPED TO THE 5-6 KFT AGL RANGE...PER BLEND OF KSBN/KLWA 4KM
NAM SOUNDINGS. LACK OF SUPERSATURATION WITHIN SHALLOW/DISJOINTED
DGZ TO FURTHER PROVIDE PUTRID SNOW EFFICIENCIES. MINOR CHANGES TO
TEMPS WITH LITTLE DIURNAL RISE RESPONSE EXPECTED TUE WITH MAX T
SOME 20-27F COLDER OVR MON MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLD AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. THE PATTERN IS FAST MOVING AND THE MODELS VARY IN THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE INCOMING WAVES FOR MIDWEEK.
REGARDLESS THE CONTINUED SURGE OF REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL KEEP
SKIES OVERCAST WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLIPPER SYSTEM EXISTS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY AND THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER FAST WARMUP FRIDAY-SUNDAY. AGAIN...MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT
DIVERGENT IN ABSOLUTE SOLUTIONS FOR THE COMING WEEKEND...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO EJECT A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER RAINFALL EVENT
BEGINNING SATURDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MODERATE RAINFALL. AS
WITH THIS PAST WEEKENDS EVENT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE THERMAL
STRUCTURE WILL SUPPORT ALL RAIN. IN KEEPING WITH
CONSISTENCY...HAVE KEPT A MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REPEATING PATTERN...COLD AIR
WILL CHARGE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WHILE THE TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THE
PATTERN IS TOO SIMILAR TO BE IGNORED AND HAVE KEPT WITH THE MODEL
OUTPUT OF COOLER LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

PRONOUNCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 01Z WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO OVER 40 KNOTS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL
LINGER THROUGH 04Z BEFORE ABATING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

IN THE NEAR TERM THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SATURATED IN THE
DEFORMATION AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THIS HAS
TURNED...OR WILL TURN LIQUID PRECIP TO FROZEN QUICKLY. LIGHT SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND CIGS WILL REMAIN AT IFR WITH ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS.

AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE...HOWEVER EXPECT TO SEE IFR CIGS PERSISTING
THROUGH END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ007>009-
     016>018-022>027-032>034.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>006-012>015-020.

MI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ081.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>080.

OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 242103
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
403 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 DEGREES. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

EXTREME PRESSURE RISE CENTROID ON ORDER OF 7-8MB/3 HR LIFTING NWD
THROUGH NRN/NERN CWA ATTM. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE /NOTABLY
PROVIDING 12-16F/3 HR TEMP DROP/ AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OF
0-1 KM LYR AS DEEPER COLD AIR PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH CWA...WL
ALLOW WIND HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AT 00 UTC...WITH STILL NMRS 40-55
MPH GUSTS PAST 90 MINUTES...THOUGH CONCEDE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH REMAINING FEW HOURS. HEIGHTENED MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
COINCIDENT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHED WELL NORTH OF CWA...WCNTL
MI TRAILING INTO SRN WI. STILL ANTICIPATE NWRN CWA ALONG LEADING
EDGE AS FEATURE PIVOTS PRIOR TO NE EJECTION FOR SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT OF SHSN...WITH ONLY MINOR LOW POP/COVERAGE ELSEWHERE
PRIMARILY ASSOCD WITH ENHANCED POCKETS OF CAA AS DRY SLOT
PRESENCE TO REMAIN LARGE/MITIGATING FACTOR. TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND
SPCLY 12-15 UTC SOME MINOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUPPORTIVE OF HIR
POPS THOUGH LOW QPF/ACCUMS EXPECTED. LK/8H DELTA T IN 15-17C
RANGE WITH MUTED LK INDUCED CAPE /LTE 250 J/KG/ AND LK INDUCED
EQL CAPPED TO THE 5-6 KFT AGL RANGE...PER BLEND OF KSBN/KLWA 4KM
NAM SOUNDINGS. LACK OF SUPERSATURATION WITHIN SHALLOW/DISJOINTED
DGZ TO FURTHER PROVIDE PUTRID SNOW EFFICIENCIES. MINOR CHANGES TO
TEMPS WITH LITTLE DIURNAL RISE RESPONSE EXPECTED TUE WITH MAX T
SOME 20-27F COLDER OVR MON MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLD AIR IN PLACE THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. THE PATTERN IS FAST MOVING AND THE MODELS VARY IN THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE INCOMING WAVES FOR MIDWEEK.
REGARDLESS THE CONTINUED SURGE OF REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL KEEP
SKIES OVERCAST WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLIPPER SYSTEM EXISTS THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY AND THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER FAST WARMUP FRIDAY-SUNDAY. AGAIN...MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT
DIVERGENT IN ABSOLUTE SOLUTIONS FOR THE COMING WEEKEND...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO EJECT A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER RAINFALL EVENT
BEGINNING SATURDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MODERATE RAINFALL. AS
WITH THIS PAST WEEKENDS EVENT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE THERMAL
STRUCTURE WILL SUPPORT ALL RAIN. IN KEEPING WITH
CONSISTENCY...HAVE KEPT A MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REPEATING PATTERN...COLD AIR
WILL CHARGE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WHILE THE TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THE
PATTERN IS TOO SIMILAR TO BE IGNORED AND HAVE KEPT WITH THE MODEL
OUTPUT OF COOLER LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

PRONOUNCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 01Z WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO OVER 40 KNOTS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL
LINGER THROUGH 04Z BEFORE ABATING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

IN THE NEAR TERM THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SATURATED IN THE
DEFORMATION AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THIS HAS
TURNED...OR WILL TURN LIQUID PRECIP TO FROZEN QUICKLY. LIGHT SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND CIGS WILL REMAIN AT IFR WITH ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS.

AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE...HOWEVER EXPECT TO SEE IFR CIGS PERSISTING
THROUGH END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ007>009-
     016>018-022>027-032>034.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>006-012>015-020.

MI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ081.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>080.

OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 241745
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1245 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

EXTREMELY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA...WITH
A POTENTIAL OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SHARPLY
THROUGH THE 30S AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

INTENSE MESOVORT IN LEADING DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL CWA MOVG RAPIDLY
NWD. MIXDOWN ALREADY BRINGING G50 KTS AT KFWA. POWER OUTAGES
EXPECTED...MORE TREES/BRANCHES/SEMIS OR LARGE VEHICLES BLOWN OFF
ROADWAYS PROBABLE. UPG SERN HALF CWA TO HIGH WIND WARNING WHERE
HIEST /9.5-10.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES TO ENVELOP WARNED REGION BTWN
18-21 UTC TIMEFRAME COINCIDENT WITH MAX MOMENNUM XFER OF 45-60 KT
900-850MB LAYER FLOW ANTICIPATED WITH CROSS ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
ON ORDER OF 10 MB/3HRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER ON VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...AND PRECIP
TYPE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WITH A LULL IN THE GREATER RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS LULL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER VORT MAX
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25
TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO. THESE STRONGER GUSTS APPEAR TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH STRONG
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT MARKING NORTHEAST DEPARTURE OF CORE OF STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE A BIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI VORT MAX. A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH THIS VORT MAX AS WEAK MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA. 00Z NAM STILL DEPICT MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 100-300 J/KG
WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PUSH WITH THE FRONT. EXPECTING A SHARP INCREASE IN SFC
WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN BY THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME AS MAIN LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST
OHIO PROMOTING SOME BETTER MIXING. NAM/GFS/RAP BUFFER SOUNDINGS
ALL POINTING TO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF MIXING DOWN SOME 50+ MPH
WIND GUSTS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES. THIS THREAT
SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN THE 16Z-20Z TIMEFRAME WHEN STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. WITH POTENTIAL OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALSO WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
ENHANCED LOCALIZED MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS INTO THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA...PERHAPS A BIT MORE MARGINAL IN NATURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN GOING WIND ADVISORY...WITH A
MENTION OF 50+ MPH WIND GUSTS AS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT EXTENSION IN TIME FOR
THE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED PAST 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP...BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING TO PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOCATIONS TODAY AS NEXT VORT MAX DIGS ACROSS MID MS VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BETTER
DEFORMATION FORCING BY THIS EVENING STILL APPEARS TO SET UP
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH COMBINATION OF LINGERING
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY SUPPORT MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONLY TWEAK TO WEATHER GRIDS THIS MORNING WAS
FOR JUST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION TO SNOW SHOWER PTYPE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE NATURE OF PREVIOUS GRIDS REMAINS INTACT.
MORNING HIGHS MAY EVEN REACH 60 OR LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SHARP LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SETS IN LATER THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

AN UNWELCOMED RETURN TO COLD TEMP ANOMALIES THE PRIMARY WX STORY
MID-LATE WEEK AS ADDITIONAL EAST PACIFIC JET ENERGY HELPS REINFORCE
A RATHER DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. PIVOT THROUGH OF MID LVL
DEFORMATION AXIS/DEEPER SATURATION TUE AM AND ADDED MOISTURE FLUX
OFF LAKE MI WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER/FLURRIES/CLOUDS AROUND TUESDAY
(MAINLY NORTH). MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD
GIVEN LAKE-8H TEMP DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS/WESTERLY
FLOW...WITH LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 5-6 KFT/SHALLOW DGZ LIMITING
FACTORS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WILL COME LATER WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS SE
IN FLATTENING NW FLOW. LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE MID MS/WESTERN OH VALLEYS PLACING
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES IN A BETTER SPOT FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
RENEWED SHOT OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR IN VEERED WNW FLOW IN WAKE OF
THIS WAVE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP ON THANKSGIVING. COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS IN
FAVORED WNW FLOW ZONES AS 700 MB DELTA T`S PLUMMET INTO THE LOW-MID
20S AND INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KFT PER LATEST FCST
SOUNDINGS.

RELAXATION OF HEIGHT FIELD LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND WITH POLAR
JET/LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE POTENTIALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD ALLOW MILDER/MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO BRIEFLY
ADVECT IN BY AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM ADVECTION SURGE AROUND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST MUCH BETTER CHANCES NORTH
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE....RAISED HIGHS CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY GIVEN
EXCELLENT 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

PRONOUNCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 01Z WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO OVER 40 KNOTS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL
LINGER THROUGH 04Z BEFORE ABATING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD
AND THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

IN THE NEAR TERM THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SATURATED IN THE
DEFORMATION AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THIS HAS
TURNED...OR WILL TURN LIQUID PRECIP TO FROZEN QUICKLY. LIGHT SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND CIGS WILL REMAIN AT IFR WITH ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS.

AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE...HOWEVER EXPECT TO SEE IFR CIGS PERSISTING
THROUGH END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. SOME INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL LEAD TO VERY SMALL PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER AT
TERMINALS. POTENTIAL AT ANY ONE POINT IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION FOR
THE 12Z TAFS. BIGGER STORY CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING WINDS THIS
MORNING. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AT KFWA...WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AT BOTH TERMINALS TOWARD THE 15Z
TIMEFRAME IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO
40 TO 45 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KFWA...WITH AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
KSBN. WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT. THE MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STILL EXPECTED AT
KSBN...WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. MAIN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT COMBINED WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL PROVIDE
CONTINUED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LOCATED NORTH OF KSBN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ007>009-
     016>018-022>027-032>034.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>006-012>015-020.

MI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ081.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>080.

OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MURPHY
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 241745
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1245 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

EXTREMELY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA...WITH
A POTENTIAL OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SHARPLY
THROUGH THE 30S AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

INTENSE MESOVORT IN LEADING DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL CWA MOVG RAPIDLY
NWD. MIXDOWN ALREADY BRINGING G50 KTS AT KFWA. POWER OUTAGES
EXPECTED...MORE TREES/BRANCHES/SEMIS OR LARGE VEHICLES BLOWN OFF
ROADWAYS PROBABLE. UPG SERN HALF CWA TO HIGH WIND WARNING WHERE
HIEST /9.5-10.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES TO ENVELOP WARNED REGION BTWN
18-21 UTC TIMEFRAME COINCIDENT WITH MAX MOMENNUM XFER OF 45-60 KT
900-850MB LAYER FLOW ANTICIPATED WITH CROSS ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
ON ORDER OF 10 MB/3HRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER ON VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...AND PRECIP
TYPE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WITH A LULL IN THE GREATER RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS LULL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER VORT MAX
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25
TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO. THESE STRONGER GUSTS APPEAR TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH STRONG
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT MARKING NORTHEAST DEPARTURE OF CORE OF STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE A BIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI VORT MAX. A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH THIS VORT MAX AS WEAK MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA. 00Z NAM STILL DEPICT MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 100-300 J/KG
WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PUSH WITH THE FRONT. EXPECTING A SHARP INCREASE IN SFC
WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN BY THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME AS MAIN LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST
OHIO PROMOTING SOME BETTER MIXING. NAM/GFS/RAP BUFFER SOUNDINGS
ALL POINTING TO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF MIXING DOWN SOME 50+ MPH
WIND GUSTS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES. THIS THREAT
SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN THE 16Z-20Z TIMEFRAME WHEN STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. WITH POTENTIAL OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALSO WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
ENHANCED LOCALIZED MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS INTO THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA...PERHAPS A BIT MORE MARGINAL IN NATURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN GOING WIND ADVISORY...WITH A
MENTION OF 50+ MPH WIND GUSTS AS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT EXTENSION IN TIME FOR
THE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED PAST 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP...BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING TO PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOCATIONS TODAY AS NEXT VORT MAX DIGS ACROSS MID MS VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BETTER
DEFORMATION FORCING BY THIS EVENING STILL APPEARS TO SET UP
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH COMBINATION OF LINGERING
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY SUPPORT MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONLY TWEAK TO WEATHER GRIDS THIS MORNING WAS
FOR JUST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION TO SNOW SHOWER PTYPE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE NATURE OF PREVIOUS GRIDS REMAINS INTACT.
MORNING HIGHS MAY EVEN REACH 60 OR LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SHARP LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SETS IN LATER THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

AN UNWELCOMED RETURN TO COLD TEMP ANOMALIES THE PRIMARY WX STORY
MID-LATE WEEK AS ADDITIONAL EAST PACIFIC JET ENERGY HELPS REINFORCE
A RATHER DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. PIVOT THROUGH OF MID LVL
DEFORMATION AXIS/DEEPER SATURATION TUE AM AND ADDED MOISTURE FLUX
OFF LAKE MI WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER/FLURRIES/CLOUDS AROUND TUESDAY
(MAINLY NORTH). MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD
GIVEN LAKE-8H TEMP DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS/WESTERLY
FLOW...WITH LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 5-6 KFT/SHALLOW DGZ LIMITING
FACTORS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WILL COME LATER WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS SE
IN FLATTENING NW FLOW. LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE MID MS/WESTERN OH VALLEYS PLACING
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES IN A BETTER SPOT FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
RENEWED SHOT OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR IN VEERED WNW FLOW IN WAKE OF
THIS WAVE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP ON THANKSGIVING. COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS IN
FAVORED WNW FLOW ZONES AS 700 MB DELTA T`S PLUMMET INTO THE LOW-MID
20S AND INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KFT PER LATEST FCST
SOUNDINGS.

RELAXATION OF HEIGHT FIELD LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND WITH POLAR
JET/LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE POTENTIALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD ALLOW MILDER/MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO BRIEFLY
ADVECT IN BY AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM ADVECTION SURGE AROUND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST MUCH BETTER CHANCES NORTH
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE....RAISED HIGHS CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY GIVEN
EXCELLENT 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

PRONOUNCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 01Z WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO OVER 40 KNOTS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL
LINGER THROUGH 04Z BEFORE ABATING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD
AND THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

IN THE NEAR TERM THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SATURATED IN THE
DEFORMATION AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THIS HAS
TURNED...OR WILL TURN LIQUID PRECIP TO FROZEN QUICKLY. LIGHT SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND CIGS WILL REMAIN AT IFR WITH ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS.

AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE...HOWEVER EXPECT TO SEE IFR CIGS PERSISTING
THROUGH END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. SOME INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL LEAD TO VERY SMALL PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER AT
TERMINALS. POTENTIAL AT ANY ONE POINT IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION FOR
THE 12Z TAFS. BIGGER STORY CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING WINDS THIS
MORNING. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AT KFWA...WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AT BOTH TERMINALS TOWARD THE 15Z
TIMEFRAME IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO
40 TO 45 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KFWA...WITH AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
KSBN. WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT. THE MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STILL EXPECTED AT
KSBN...WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. MAIN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT COMBINED WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL PROVIDE
CONTINUED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LOCATED NORTH OF KSBN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ007>009-
     016>018-022>027-032>034.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>006-012>015-020.

MI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ081.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>080.

OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MURPHY
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 241542
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1042 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
EXTREMELY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THIS STORM
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR IS USHERED INTO
THE AREA...WITH A POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG
WITH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP SHARPLY THROUGH THE 40S AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

INTENSE MESOVORT IN LEADING DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL CWA MOVG RAPIDLY
NWD. MIXDOWN ALREADY BRINGING G50 KTS AT KFWA. POWER OUTAGES
EXPECTED...MORE TREES/BRANCHES/SEMIS OR LARGE VEHICLES BLOWN OFF
ROADWAYS PROBABLE. UPG SERN HALF CWA TO HIGH WIND WARNING WHERE
HIEST /9.5-10.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES TO ENVELOP WARNED REGION BTWN
18-21 UTC TIMEFRAME COINCIDENT WITH MAX MOMENNUM XFER OF 45-60 KT
900-850MB LAYER FLOW ANTICIPATED WITH CROSS ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
ON ORDER OF 10 MB/3HRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER ON VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...AND PRECIP
TYPE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WITH A LULL IN THE GREATER RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS LULL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER VORT MAX
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25
TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO. THESE STRONGER GUSTS APPEAR TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH STRONG
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT MARKING NORTHEAST DEPARTURE OF CORE OF STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE A BIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI VORT MAX. A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH THIS VORT MAX AS WEAK MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA. 00Z NAM STILL DEPICT MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 100-300 J/KG
WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PUSH WITH THE FRONT. EXPECTING A SHARP INCREASE IN SFC
WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN BY THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME AS MAIN LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST
OHIO PROMOTING SOME BETTER MIXING. NAM/GFS/RAP BUFFER SOUNDINGS
ALL POINTING TO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF MIXING DOWN SOME 50+ MPH
WIND GUSTS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES. THIS THREAT
SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN THE 16Z-20Z TIMEFRAME WHEN STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. WITH POTENTIAL OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALSO WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
ENHANCED LOCALIZED MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS INTO THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA...PERHAPS A BIT MORE MARGINAL IN NATURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN GOING WIND ADVISORY...WITH A
MENTION OF 50+ MPH WIND GUSTS AS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT EXTENSION IN TIME FOR
THE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED PAST 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP...BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING TO PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOCATIONS TODAY AS NEXT VORT MAX DIGS ACROSS MID MS VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BETTER
DEFORMATION FORCING BY THIS EVENING STILL APPEARS TO SET UP
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH COMBINATION OF LINGERING
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY SUPPORT MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONLY TWEAK TO WEATHER GRIDS THIS MORNING WAS
FOR JUST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION TO SNOW SHOWER PTYPE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE NATURE OF PREVIOUS GRIDS REMAINS INTACT.
MORNING HIGHS MAY EVEN REACH 60 OR LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SHARP LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SETS IN LATER THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

AN UNWELCOMED RETURN TO COLD TEMP ANOMALIES THE PRIMARY WX STORY
MID-LATE WEEK AS ADDITIONAL EAST PACIFIC JET ENERGY HELPS REINFORCE
A RATHER DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. PIVOT THROUGH OF MID LVL
DEFORMATION AXIS/DEEPER SATURATION TUE AM AND ADDED MOISTURE FLUX
OFF LAKE MI WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER/FLURRIES/CLOUDS AROUND TUESDAY
(MAINLY NORTH). MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD
GIVEN LAKE-8H TEMP DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS/WESTERLY
FLOW...WITH LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 5-6 KFT/SHALLOW DGZ LIMITING
FACTORS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WILL COME LATER WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS SE
IN FLATTENING NW FLOW. LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE MID MS/WESTERN OH VALLEYS PLACING
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES IN A BETTER SPOT FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
RENEWED SHOT OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR IN VEERED WNW FLOW IN WAKE OF
THIS WAVE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP ON THANKSGIVING. COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS IN
FAVORED WNW FLOW ZONES AS 700 MB DELTA T`S PLUMMET INTO THE LOW-MID
20S AND INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KFT PER LATEST FCST
SOUNDINGS.

RELAXATION OF HEIGHT FIELD LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND WITH POLAR
JET/LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE POTENTIALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD ALLOW MILDER/MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO BRIEFLY
ADVECT IN BY AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM ADVECTION SURGE AROUND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST MUCH BETTER CHANCES NORTH
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE....RAISED HIGHS CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY GIVEN
EXCELLENT 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. SOME INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL LEAD TO VERY SMALL PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER AT
TERMINALS. POTENTIAL AT ANY ONE POINT IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION FOR
THE 12Z TAFS. BIGGER STORY CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING WINDS THIS
MORNING. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AT KFWA...WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AT BOTH TERMINALS TOWARD THE 15Z
TIMEFRAME IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO
40 TO 45 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KFWA...WITH AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
KSBN. WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT. THE MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STILL EXPECTED AT
KSBN...WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. MAIN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT COMBINED WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL PROVIDE
CONTINUED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LOCATED NORTH OF KSBN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MURPHY
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 241542
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1042 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
EXTREMELY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THIS STORM
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR IS USHERED INTO
THE AREA...WITH A POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG
WITH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP SHARPLY THROUGH THE 40S AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

INTENSE MESOVORT IN LEADING DRY SLOT ACRS CENTRAL CWA MOVG RAPIDLY
NWD. MIXDOWN ALREADY BRINGING G50 KTS AT KFWA. POWER OUTAGES
EXPECTED...MORE TREES/BRANCHES/SEMIS OR LARGE VEHICLES BLOWN OFF
ROADWAYS PROBABLE. UPG SERN HALF CWA TO HIGH WIND WARNING WHERE
HIEST /9.5-10.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES TO ENVELOP WARNED REGION BTWN
18-21 UTC TIMEFRAME COINCIDENT WITH MAX MOMENNUM XFER OF 45-60 KT
900-850MB LAYER FLOW ANTICIPATED WITH CROSS ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
ON ORDER OF 10 MB/3HRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER ON VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...AND PRECIP
TYPE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WITH A LULL IN THE GREATER RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS LULL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER VORT MAX
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25
TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO. THESE STRONGER GUSTS APPEAR TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH STRONG
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT MARKING NORTHEAST DEPARTURE OF CORE OF STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE A BIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI VORT MAX. A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH THIS VORT MAX AS WEAK MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA. 00Z NAM STILL DEPICT MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 100-300 J/KG
WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PUSH WITH THE FRONT. EXPECTING A SHARP INCREASE IN SFC
WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN BY THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME AS MAIN LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST
OHIO PROMOTING SOME BETTER MIXING. NAM/GFS/RAP BUFFER SOUNDINGS
ALL POINTING TO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF MIXING DOWN SOME 50+ MPH
WIND GUSTS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES. THIS THREAT
SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN THE 16Z-20Z TIMEFRAME WHEN STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. WITH POTENTIAL OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALSO WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
ENHANCED LOCALIZED MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS INTO THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA...PERHAPS A BIT MORE MARGINAL IN NATURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN GOING WIND ADVISORY...WITH A
MENTION OF 50+ MPH WIND GUSTS AS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT EXTENSION IN TIME FOR
THE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED PAST 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP...BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING TO PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOCATIONS TODAY AS NEXT VORT MAX DIGS ACROSS MID MS VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BETTER
DEFORMATION FORCING BY THIS EVENING STILL APPEARS TO SET UP
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH COMBINATION OF LINGERING
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY SUPPORT MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONLY TWEAK TO WEATHER GRIDS THIS MORNING WAS
FOR JUST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION TO SNOW SHOWER PTYPE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE NATURE OF PREVIOUS GRIDS REMAINS INTACT.
MORNING HIGHS MAY EVEN REACH 60 OR LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SHARP LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SETS IN LATER THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

AN UNWELCOMED RETURN TO COLD TEMP ANOMALIES THE PRIMARY WX STORY
MID-LATE WEEK AS ADDITIONAL EAST PACIFIC JET ENERGY HELPS REINFORCE
A RATHER DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. PIVOT THROUGH OF MID LVL
DEFORMATION AXIS/DEEPER SATURATION TUE AM AND ADDED MOISTURE FLUX
OFF LAKE MI WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER/FLURRIES/CLOUDS AROUND TUESDAY
(MAINLY NORTH). MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD
GIVEN LAKE-8H TEMP DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS/WESTERLY
FLOW...WITH LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 5-6 KFT/SHALLOW DGZ LIMITING
FACTORS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WILL COME LATER WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS SE
IN FLATTENING NW FLOW. LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE MID MS/WESTERN OH VALLEYS PLACING
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES IN A BETTER SPOT FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
RENEWED SHOT OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR IN VEERED WNW FLOW IN WAKE OF
THIS WAVE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP ON THANKSGIVING. COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS IN
FAVORED WNW FLOW ZONES AS 700 MB DELTA T`S PLUMMET INTO THE LOW-MID
20S AND INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KFT PER LATEST FCST
SOUNDINGS.

RELAXATION OF HEIGHT FIELD LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND WITH POLAR
JET/LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE POTENTIALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD ALLOW MILDER/MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO BRIEFLY
ADVECT IN BY AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM ADVECTION SURGE AROUND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST MUCH BETTER CHANCES NORTH
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE....RAISED HIGHS CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY GIVEN
EXCELLENT 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. SOME INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL LEAD TO VERY SMALL PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER AT
TERMINALS. POTENTIAL AT ANY ONE POINT IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION FOR
THE 12Z TAFS. BIGGER STORY CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING WINDS THIS
MORNING. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AT KFWA...WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AT BOTH TERMINALS TOWARD THE 15Z
TIMEFRAME IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO
40 TO 45 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KFWA...WITH AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
KSBN. WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT. THE MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STILL EXPECTED AT
KSBN...WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. MAIN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT COMBINED WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL PROVIDE
CONTINUED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LOCATED NORTH OF KSBN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MURPHY
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 241145
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
645 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
AREA...WITH A POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP SHARPLY THROUGH THE 40S AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER ON VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...AND PRECIP
TYPE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WITH A LULL IN THE GREATER RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS LULL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER VORT MAX
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25
TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO. THESE STRONGER GUSTS APPEAR TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH STRONG
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT MARKING NORTHEAST DEPARTURE OF CORE OF STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE A BIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI VORT MAX. A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH THIS VORT MAX AS WEAK MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA. 00Z NAM STILL DEPICT MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 100-300 J/KG
WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PUSH WITH THE FRONT. EXPECTING A SHARP INCREASE IN SFC
WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN BY THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME AS MAIN LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST
OHIO PROMOTING SOME BETTER MIXING. NAM/GFS/RAP BUFFER SOUNDINGS
ALL POINTING TO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF MIXING DOWN SOME 50+ MPH
WIND GUSTS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES. THIS THREAT
SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN THE 16Z-20Z TIMEFRAME WHEN STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. WITH POTENTIAL OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALSO WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
ENHANCED LOCALIZED MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS INTO THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA...PERHAPS A BIT MORE MARGINAL IN NATURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN GOING WIND ADVISORY...WITH A
MENTION OF 50+ MPH WIND GUSTS AS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT EXTENSION IN TIME FOR
THE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED PAST 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP...BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING TO PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOCATIONS TODAY AS NEXT VORT MAX DIGS ACROSS MID MS VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BETTER
DEFORMATION FORCING BY THIS EVENING STILL APPEARS TO SET UP
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH COMBINATION OF LINGERING
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY SUPPORT MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONLY TWEAK TO WEATHER GRIDS THIS MORNING WAS
FOR JUST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION TO SNOW SHOWER PTYPE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE NATURE OF PREVIOUS GRIDS REMAINS INTACT.
MORNING HIGHS MAY EVEN REACH 60 OR LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SHARP LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SETS IN LATER THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

AN UNWELCOMED RETURN TO COLD TEMP ANOMALIES THE PRIMARY WX STORY
MID-LATE WEEK AS ADDITIONAL EAST PACIFIC JET ENERGY HELPS REINFORCE
A RATHER DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. PIVOT THROUGH OF MID LVL
DEFORMATION AXIS/DEEPER SATURATION TUE AM AND ADDED MOISTURE FLUX
OFF LAKE MI WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER/FLURRIES/CLOUDS AROUND TUESDAY
(MAINLY NORTH). MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD
GIVEN LAKE-8H TEMP DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS/WESTERLY
FLOW...WITH LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 5-6 KFT/SHALLOW DGZ LIMITING
FACTORS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WILL COME LATER WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS SE
IN FLATTENING NW FLOW. LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE MID MS/WESTERN OH VALLEYS PLACING
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES IN A BETTER SPOT FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
RENEWED SHOT OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR IN VEERED WNW FLOW IN WAKE OF
THIS WAVE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP ON THANKSGIVING. COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS IN
FAVORED WNW FLOW ZONES AS 700 MB DELTA T`S PLUMMET INTO THE LOW-MID
20S AND INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KFT PER LATEST FCST
SOUNDINGS.

RELAXATION OF HEIGHT FIELD LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND WITH POLAR
JET/LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE POTENTIALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD ALLOW MILDER/MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO BRIEFLY
ADVECT IN BY AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM ADVECTION SURGE AROUND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST MUCH BETTER CHANCES NORTH
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE....RAISED HIGHS CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY GIVEN
EXCELLENT 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. SOME INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL LEAD TO VERY SMALL PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER AT
TERMINALS. POTENTIAL AT ANY ONE POINT IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION FOR
THE 12Z TAFS. BIGGER STORY CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING WINDS THIS
MORNING. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AT KFWA...WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AT BOTH TERMINALS TOWARD THE 15Z
TIMEFRAME IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO
40 TO 45 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KFWA...WITH AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
KSBN. WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT. THE MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STILL EXPECTED AT
KSBN...WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. MAIN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT COMBINED WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL PROVIDE
CONTINUED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LOCATED NORTH OF KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ007-009-018-026-
     027-033-034.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>006-008-012>017-020-022>025-032.

MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ081.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>080.

OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 241145
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
645 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
AREA...WITH A POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP SHARPLY THROUGH THE 40S AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER ON VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...AND PRECIP
TYPE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WITH A LULL IN THE GREATER RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS LULL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER VORT MAX
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25
TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO. THESE STRONGER GUSTS APPEAR TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH STRONG
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT MARKING NORTHEAST DEPARTURE OF CORE OF STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE A BIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI VORT MAX. A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH THIS VORT MAX AS WEAK MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA. 00Z NAM STILL DEPICT MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 100-300 J/KG
WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PUSH WITH THE FRONT. EXPECTING A SHARP INCREASE IN SFC
WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN BY THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME AS MAIN LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST
OHIO PROMOTING SOME BETTER MIXING. NAM/GFS/RAP BUFFER SOUNDINGS
ALL POINTING TO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF MIXING DOWN SOME 50+ MPH
WIND GUSTS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES. THIS THREAT
SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN THE 16Z-20Z TIMEFRAME WHEN STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. WITH POTENTIAL OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALSO WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
ENHANCED LOCALIZED MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS INTO THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA...PERHAPS A BIT MORE MARGINAL IN NATURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN GOING WIND ADVISORY...WITH A
MENTION OF 50+ MPH WIND GUSTS AS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT EXTENSION IN TIME FOR
THE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED PAST 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP...BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING TO PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOCATIONS TODAY AS NEXT VORT MAX DIGS ACROSS MID MS VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BETTER
DEFORMATION FORCING BY THIS EVENING STILL APPEARS TO SET UP
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH COMBINATION OF LINGERING
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY SUPPORT MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONLY TWEAK TO WEATHER GRIDS THIS MORNING WAS
FOR JUST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION TO SNOW SHOWER PTYPE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE NATURE OF PREVIOUS GRIDS REMAINS INTACT.
MORNING HIGHS MAY EVEN REACH 60 OR LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SHARP LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SETS IN LATER THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

AN UNWELCOMED RETURN TO COLD TEMP ANOMALIES THE PRIMARY WX STORY
MID-LATE WEEK AS ADDITIONAL EAST PACIFIC JET ENERGY HELPS REINFORCE
A RATHER DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. PIVOT THROUGH OF MID LVL
DEFORMATION AXIS/DEEPER SATURATION TUE AM AND ADDED MOISTURE FLUX
OFF LAKE MI WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER/FLURRIES/CLOUDS AROUND TUESDAY
(MAINLY NORTH). MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD
GIVEN LAKE-8H TEMP DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS/WESTERLY
FLOW...WITH LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 5-6 KFT/SHALLOW DGZ LIMITING
FACTORS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WILL COME LATER WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS SE
IN FLATTENING NW FLOW. LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE MID MS/WESTERN OH VALLEYS PLACING
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES IN A BETTER SPOT FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
RENEWED SHOT OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR IN VEERED WNW FLOW IN WAKE OF
THIS WAVE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP ON THANKSGIVING. COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS IN
FAVORED WNW FLOW ZONES AS 700 MB DELTA T`S PLUMMET INTO THE LOW-MID
20S AND INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KFT PER LATEST FCST
SOUNDINGS.

RELAXATION OF HEIGHT FIELD LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND WITH POLAR
JET/LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE POTENTIALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD ALLOW MILDER/MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO BRIEFLY
ADVECT IN BY AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM ADVECTION SURGE AROUND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST MUCH BETTER CHANCES NORTH
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE....RAISED HIGHS CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY GIVEN
EXCELLENT 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. SOME INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL LEAD TO VERY SMALL PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER AT
TERMINALS. POTENTIAL AT ANY ONE POINT IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION FOR
THE 12Z TAFS. BIGGER STORY CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING WINDS THIS
MORNING. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AT KFWA...WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AT BOTH TERMINALS TOWARD THE 15Z
TIMEFRAME IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO
40 TO 45 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KFWA...WITH AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
KSBN. WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT. THE MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STILL EXPECTED AT
KSBN...WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. MAIN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT COMBINED WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL PROVIDE
CONTINUED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LOCATED NORTH OF KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ007-009-018-026-
     027-033-034.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>006-008-012>017-020-022>025-032.

MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ081.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>080.

OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 240920
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
420 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
AREA...WITH A POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP SHARPLY THROUGH THE 40S AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER ON VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...AND PRECIP
TYPE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WITH A LULL IN THE GREATER RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS LULL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER VORT MAX
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25
TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO. THESE STRONGER GUSTS APPEAR TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH STRONG
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT MARKING NORTHEAST DEPARTURE OF CORE OF STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE A BIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI VORT MAX. A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH THIS VORT MAX AS WEAK MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA. 00Z NAM STILL DEPICT MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 100-300 J/KG
WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PUSH WITH THE FRONT. EXPECTING A SHARP INCREASE IN SFC
WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN BY THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME AS MAIN LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST
OHIO PROMOTING SOME BETTER MIXING. NAM/GFS/RAP BUFFER SOUNDINGS
ALL POINTING TO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF MIXING DOWN SOME 50+ MPH
WIND GUSTS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES. THIS THREAT
SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN THE 16Z-20Z TIMEFRAME WHEN STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. WITH POTENTIAL OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALSO WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
ENHANCED LOCALIZED MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS INTO THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA...PERHAPS A BIT MORE MARGINAL IN NATURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN GOING WIND ADVISORY...WITH A
MENTION OF 50+ MPH WIND GUSTS AS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT EXTENSION IN TIME FOR
THE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED PAST 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP...BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING TO PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOCATIONS TODAY AS NEXT VORT MAX DIGS ACROSS MID MS VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BETTER
DEFORMATION FORCING BY THIS EVENING STILL APPEARS TO SET UP
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH COMBINATION OF LINGERING
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY SUPPORT MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONLY TWEAK TO WEATHER GRIDS THIS MORNING WAS
FOR JUST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION TO SNOW SHOWER PTYPE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE NATURE OF PREVIOUS GRIDS REMAINS INTACT.
MORNING HIGHS MAY EVEN REACH 60 OR LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SHARP LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SETS IN LATER THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

AN UNWELCOMED RETURN TO COLD TEMP ANOMALIES THE PRIMARY WX STORY
MID-LATE WEEK AS ADDITIONAL EAST PACIFIC JET ENERGY HELPS REINFORCE
A RATHER DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. PIVOT THROUGH OF MID LVL
DEFORMATION AXIS/DEEPER SATURATION TUE AM AND ADDED MOISTURE FLUX
OFF LAKE MI WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER/FLURRIES/CLOUDS AROUND TUESDAY
(MAINLY NORTH). MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD
GIVEN LAKE-8H TEMP DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS/WESTERLY
FLOW...WITH LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 5-6 KFT/SHALLOW DGZ LIMITING
FACTORS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WILL COME LATER WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS SE
IN FLATTENING NW FLOW. LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE MID MS/WESTERN OH VALLEYS PLACING
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES IN A BETTER SPOT FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
RENEWED SHOT OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR IN VEERED WNW FLOW IN WAKE OF
THIS WAVE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP ON THANKSGIVING. COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS IN
FAVORED WNW FLOW ZONES AS 700 MB DELTA T`S PLUMMET INTO THE LOW-MID
20S AND INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KFT PER LATEST FCST
SOUNDINGS.

RELAXATION OF HEIGHT FIELD LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND WITH POLAR
JET/LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE POTENTIALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD ALLOW MILDER/MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO BRIEFLY
ADVECT IN BY AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM ADVECTION SURGE AROUND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST MUCH BETTER CHANCES NORTH
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE....RAISED HIGHS CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY GIVEN
EXCELLENT 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR CIGS...WITH SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS TO LOWER END MVFR ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL
WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS STRONGEST LEAD
THETAE ADVECTION FORCING AND INITIAL SHORTWAVE LIFT NORTHWARD.
BREAKS IN PRECIP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. RELATIVELY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND SFC FRONT MAY EVEN YIELD AN ISOLD
THUNDER THREAT BUT WILL HOLD OFF MENTION FOR TERMINAL FORECASTS
WITH EXPECTED VERY ISOLATED NATURE. BIGGER STORY WILL BE VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD...BEGINNING IN THE 14Z TIMEFRAME.
EVEN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...INCREASED MIXING IN THE MORNING MAY
SUPPORT SOUTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS AT KFWA...WITH STRONGER
WINDS AT KSBN PERHAPS MORE DELAYED UNTIL ACTUAL WIND SHIFT AROUND
15Z WHEN GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION AT KSBN. WINDS SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 30
KNOTS AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ007-009-018-026-
     027-033-034.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ003>006-008-012>017-020-
     022>025-032.

MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ081.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ077>080.

OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 240920
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
420 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
AREA...WITH A POTENTIAL OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP SHARPLY THROUGH THE 40S AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER ON VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...AND PRECIP
TYPE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...WITH A LULL IN THE GREATER RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS LULL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER VORT MAX
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SWINGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25
TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO. THESE STRONGER GUSTS APPEAR TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH STRONG
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT MARKING NORTHEAST DEPARTURE OF CORE OF STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE A BIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS THE STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTHEAST.

AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI VORT MAX. A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH THIS VORT MAX AS WEAK MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA. 00Z NAM STILL DEPICT MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 100-300 J/KG
WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PUSH WITH THE FRONT. EXPECTING A SHARP INCREASE IN SFC
WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN BY THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME AS MAIN LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST
OHIO PROMOTING SOME BETTER MIXING. NAM/GFS/RAP BUFFER SOUNDINGS
ALL POINTING TO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF MIXING DOWN SOME 50+ MPH
WIND GUSTS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES. THIS THREAT
SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN THE 16Z-20Z TIMEFRAME WHEN STRONGER ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT SHIFTS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. WITH POTENTIAL OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALSO WORKING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
ENHANCED LOCALIZED MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. STILL
EXPECTING GUSTS INTO THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA...PERHAPS A BIT MORE MARGINAL IN NATURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN GOING WIND ADVISORY...WITH A
MENTION OF 50+ MPH WIND GUSTS AS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR
EAST THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT EXTENSION IN TIME FOR
THE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED PAST 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP...BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING TO PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOCATIONS TODAY AS NEXT VORT MAX DIGS ACROSS MID MS VALLEY
AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BETTER
DEFORMATION FORCING BY THIS EVENING STILL APPEARS TO SET UP
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH COMBINATION OF LINGERING
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY SUPPORT MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONLY TWEAK TO WEATHER GRIDS THIS MORNING WAS
FOR JUST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION TO SNOW SHOWER PTYPE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE NATURE OF PREVIOUS GRIDS REMAINS INTACT.
MORNING HIGHS MAY EVEN REACH 60 OR LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST BEFORE SHARP LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SETS IN LATER THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

AN UNWELCOMED RETURN TO COLD TEMP ANOMALIES THE PRIMARY WX STORY
MID-LATE WEEK AS ADDITIONAL EAST PACIFIC JET ENERGY HELPS REINFORCE
A RATHER DEEP EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. PIVOT THROUGH OF MID LVL
DEFORMATION AXIS/DEEPER SATURATION TUE AM AND ADDED MOISTURE FLUX
OFF LAKE MI WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER/FLURRIES/CLOUDS AROUND TUESDAY
(MAINLY NORTH). MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD
GIVEN LAKE-8H TEMP DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS/WESTERLY
FLOW...WITH LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS NEAR 5-6 KFT/SHALLOW DGZ LIMITING
FACTORS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WILL COME LATER WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS SE
IN FLATTENING NW FLOW. LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE MID MS/WESTERN OH VALLEYS PLACING
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES IN A BETTER SPOT FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW.
RENEWED SHOT OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR IN VEERED WNW FLOW IN WAKE OF
THIS WAVE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP ON THANKSGIVING. COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS IN
FAVORED WNW FLOW ZONES AS 700 MB DELTA T`S PLUMMET INTO THE LOW-MID
20S AND INVERSION HEIGHTS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KFT PER LATEST FCST
SOUNDINGS.

RELAXATION OF HEIGHT FIELD LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND WITH POLAR
JET/LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE POTENTIALLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD ALLOW MILDER/MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO BRIEFLY
ADVECT IN BY AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM ADVECTION SURGE AROUND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGEST MUCH BETTER CHANCES NORTH
OF THE FA. OTHERWISE....RAISED HIGHS CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY GIVEN
EXCELLENT 00Z MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR CIGS...WITH SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS TO LOWER END MVFR ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL
WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS STRONGEST LEAD
THETAE ADVECTION FORCING AND INITIAL SHORTWAVE LIFT NORTHWARD.
BREAKS IN PRECIP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. RELATIVELY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND SFC FRONT MAY EVEN YIELD AN ISOLD
THUNDER THREAT BUT WILL HOLD OFF MENTION FOR TERMINAL FORECASTS
WITH EXPECTED VERY ISOLATED NATURE. BIGGER STORY WILL BE VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD...BEGINNING IN THE 14Z TIMEFRAME.
EVEN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...INCREASED MIXING IN THE MORNING MAY
SUPPORT SOUTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS AT KFWA...WITH STRONGER
WINDS AT KSBN PERHAPS MORE DELAYED UNTIL ACTUAL WIND SHIFT AROUND
15Z WHEN GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION AT KSBN. WINDS SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 30
KNOTS AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ007-009-018-026-
     027-033-034.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ003>006-008-012>017-020-
     022>025-032.

MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ081.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ077>080.

OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 240602
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
102 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 621 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT CAUSING WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA ON MONDAY RESULTING IN VERY WINDY AND MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA... WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S... WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 30S ON MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY STRONG LLJ ADVANCING NE ACROSS OH THIS EVE MIXING SOME
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH
SHOULD CONT AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS WORKING OUT WELL
BUT BUMPED UP QPF EARLIER WITH 1-2" RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. LARGE AREA OF RAIN AHEAD OF LEAD NEG TILT SHRTWV
SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT... BUT SHOWERS WILL FILL
IN SHORTLY THEREAFTER...ESPECIALLY WRN PORTIONS AS FRONT AND
SECONDARY CHANNELED VORT MAX CLOSER TO MAIN UPR TROF APPROACH.
TSTMS HAVE BEEN OCRG THIS EVE OVER SRN MO IN AREA OF WK
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE FEATURES ARE FCST
TO LIFT NE ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY MORNING AS CDFNT MOVES
THROUGH... SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE FLUX
INCREASES IN THE LOW LEVELS. RAISED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN
INCH BY EARLY MONDAY. UPSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS HAVE DROPPED TO 8
MB/3HR... INDICATIVE OF A WELL/DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LAYERS AND DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. AS
FOR MONDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A VERY TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...ALTHOUGH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FEW CHANGES WRT LATEST LONG TERM PD. INTENSE SHORTWAVES WITHIN
LONGWAVE TROF FIRST LIFTING NWD FROM NERN MS WITH ADDNL ENERGY
ASSOCD UPSTREAM WITH EXIT REGION OF 140-150 KT ULVL JET TO EJECT
INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION IN NEG TILT FASHION WITH MARKED/RAPID
DEEPENING OF SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NNEWD FM ERN OK TO N OF LK SUPR
BY 18 UTC MON. CONTINUE TO FAVOR TIMING OF CHANGEOVER MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LAGGED WARM TW ALOFT TRAILING WELL BEHIND SFC FNTL ZONE
PASSAGE. HIEST POPS/QPF/SNOWFALL IN NWNR CWA IN LINE WITH STRONGEST
MID LVL DEFORMATION/DEEPER MSTR WRAPPING SFC LOW. FOLLOWED BY MODEST
LES RESPONSE WITH MID/UPPER TEENS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS TONED DOWN BY
ANEMIC SATURATION WITHIN A SHALLOW DGZ LYR. NEXT NRN STREAM WAVE
EMITTED FM ALEUTIAN VORTEX FAVORS WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD
THROUGH NRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WRN GRTLKS WED AFNT/EVE. MODERATE
I285K ISENT UPGLIDE THOUGH WITH INITIAL MSTR SOURCE VOID MAY TAKE A
PROLONGED PD BEFORE TOP/DOWN SATURATION OCCURS WITH ASSOCD
FEATURE...WITH HIEST POPS WED NIGHT. THEREAFTER COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS
RAMPS LENDING TO WHITHER OF GRTLKS SYSTEM...PER MOST MODEL CONSENSUS
SANS GFSX. AGAIN ONLY A MODEST LES RESPONSE ANTICIPATED THU/THU
NIGHT AND PERHAPS AGAIN ABOUT SAT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE/WEAK
TRANSITORY SYSTEM PSBL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR CIGS...WITH SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS TO LOWER END MVFR ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL
WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS STRONGEST LEAD
THETAE ADVECTION FORCING AND INITIAL SHORTWAVE LIFT NORTHWARD.
BREAKS IN PRECIP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. RELATIVELY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND SFC FRONT MAY EVEN YIELD AN ISOLD
THUNDER THREAT BUT WILL HOLD OFF MENTION FOR TERMINAL FORECASTS
WITH EXPECTED VERY ISOLATED NATURE. BIGGER STORY WILL BE VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD...BEGINNING IN THE 14Z TIMEFRAME.
EVEN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...INCREASED MIXING IN THE MORNING MAY
SUPPORT SOUTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS AT KFWA...WITH STRONGER
WINDS AT KSBN PERHAPS MORE DELAYED UNTIL ACTUAL WIND SHIFT AROUND
15Z WHEN GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION AT KSBN. WINDS SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 30
KNOTS AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-
     032>034.

MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/NG/JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 240602
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
102 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 621 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT CAUSING WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA ON MONDAY RESULTING IN VERY WINDY AND MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA... WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S... WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 30S ON MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY STRONG LLJ ADVANCING NE ACROSS OH THIS EVE MIXING SOME
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH
SHOULD CONT AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS WORKING OUT WELL
BUT BUMPED UP QPF EARLIER WITH 1-2" RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. LARGE AREA OF RAIN AHEAD OF LEAD NEG TILT SHRTWV
SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT... BUT SHOWERS WILL FILL
IN SHORTLY THEREAFTER...ESPECIALLY WRN PORTIONS AS FRONT AND
SECONDARY CHANNELED VORT MAX CLOSER TO MAIN UPR TROF APPROACH.
TSTMS HAVE BEEN OCRG THIS EVE OVER SRN MO IN AREA OF WK
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE FEATURES ARE FCST
TO LIFT NE ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY MORNING AS CDFNT MOVES
THROUGH... SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE FLUX
INCREASES IN THE LOW LEVELS. RAISED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN
INCH BY EARLY MONDAY. UPSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS HAVE DROPPED TO 8
MB/3HR... INDICATIVE OF A WELL/DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LAYERS AND DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. AS
FOR MONDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A VERY TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...ALTHOUGH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FEW CHANGES WRT LATEST LONG TERM PD. INTENSE SHORTWAVES WITHIN
LONGWAVE TROF FIRST LIFTING NWD FROM NERN MS WITH ADDNL ENERGY
ASSOCD UPSTREAM WITH EXIT REGION OF 140-150 KT ULVL JET TO EJECT
INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION IN NEG TILT FASHION WITH MARKED/RAPID
DEEPENING OF SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NNEWD FM ERN OK TO N OF LK SUPR
BY 18 UTC MON. CONTINUE TO FAVOR TIMING OF CHANGEOVER MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LAGGED WARM TW ALOFT TRAILING WELL BEHIND SFC FNTL ZONE
PASSAGE. HIEST POPS/QPF/SNOWFALL IN NWNR CWA IN LINE WITH STRONGEST
MID LVL DEFORMATION/DEEPER MSTR WRAPPING SFC LOW. FOLLOWED BY MODEST
LES RESPONSE WITH MID/UPPER TEENS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS TONED DOWN BY
ANEMIC SATURATION WITHIN A SHALLOW DGZ LYR. NEXT NRN STREAM WAVE
EMITTED FM ALEUTIAN VORTEX FAVORS WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD
THROUGH NRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WRN GRTLKS WED AFNT/EVE. MODERATE
I285K ISENT UPGLIDE THOUGH WITH INITIAL MSTR SOURCE VOID MAY TAKE A
PROLONGED PD BEFORE TOP/DOWN SATURATION OCCURS WITH ASSOCD
FEATURE...WITH HIEST POPS WED NIGHT. THEREAFTER COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS
RAMPS LENDING TO WHITHER OF GRTLKS SYSTEM...PER MOST MODEL CONSENSUS
SANS GFSX. AGAIN ONLY A MODEST LES RESPONSE ANTICIPATED THU/THU
NIGHT AND PERHAPS AGAIN ABOUT SAT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE/WEAK
TRANSITORY SYSTEM PSBL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

IFR CIGS...WITH SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS TO LOWER END MVFR ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL
WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS STRONGEST LEAD
THETAE ADVECTION FORCING AND INITIAL SHORTWAVE LIFT NORTHWARD.
BREAKS IN PRECIP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. RELATIVELY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND SFC FRONT MAY EVEN YIELD AN ISOLD
THUNDER THREAT BUT WILL HOLD OFF MENTION FOR TERMINAL FORECASTS
WITH EXPECTED VERY ISOLATED NATURE. BIGGER STORY WILL BE VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD...BEGINNING IN THE 14Z TIMEFRAME.
EVEN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...INCREASED MIXING IN THE MORNING MAY
SUPPORT SOUTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS AT KFWA...WITH STRONGER
WINDS AT KSBN PERHAPS MORE DELAYED UNTIL ACTUAL WIND SHIFT AROUND
15Z WHEN GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION AT KSBN. WINDS SHOULD
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO AROUND 30
KNOTS AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-
     032>034.

MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/NG/JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 240247
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
947 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 621 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT CAUSING WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA ON MONDAY RESULTING IN VERY WINDY AND MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA... WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S... WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 30S ON MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

VERY STRONG LLJ ADVANCING NE ACROSS OH THIS EVE MIXING SOME
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH
SHOULD CONT AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. CATEGORICAL POPS WORKING OUT WELL
BUT BUMPED UP QPF EARLIER WITH 1-2" RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. LARGE AREA OF RAIN AHEAD OF LEAD NEG TILT SHRTWV
SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT... BUT SHOWERS WILL FILL
IN SHORTLY THEREAFTER...ESPECIALLY WRN PORTIONS AS FRONT AND
SECONDARY CHANNELED VORT MAX CLOSER TO MAIN UPR TROF APPROACH.
TSTMS HAVE BEEN OCRG THIS EVE OVER SRN MO IN AREA OF WK
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE FEATURES ARE FCST
TO LIFT NE ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY MORNING AS CDFNT MOVES
THROUGH... SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS IN THAT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE FLUX
INCREASES IN THE LOW LEVELS. RAISED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN
INCH BY EARLY MONDAY. UPSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS HAVE DROPPED TO 8
MB/3HR... INDICATIVE OF A WELL/DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LAYERS AND DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. AS
FOR MONDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A VERY TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...ALTHOUGH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FEW CHANGES WRT LATEST LONG TERM PD. INTENSE SHORTWAVES WITHIN
LONGWAVE TROF FIRST LIFTING NWD FROM NERN MS WITH ADDNL ENERGY
ASSOCD UPSTREAM WITH EXIT REGION OF 140-150 KT ULVL JET TO EJECT
INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION IN NEG TILT FASHION WITH MARKED/RAPID
DEEPENING OF SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NNEWD FM ERN OK TO N OF LK SUPR
BY 18 UTC MON. CONTINUE TO FAVOR TIMING OF CHANGEOVER MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LAGGED WARM TW ALOFT TRAILING WELL BEHIND SFC FNTL ZONE
PASSAGE. HIEST POPS/QPF/SNOWFALL IN NWNR CWA IN LINE WITH STRONGEST
MID LVL DEFORMATION/DEEPER MSTR WRAPPING SFC LOW. FOLLOWED BY MODEST
LES RESPONSE WITH MID/UPPER TEENS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS TONED DOWN BY
ANEMIC SATURATION WITHIN A SHALLOW DGZ LYR. NEXT NRN STREAM WAVE
EMITTED FM ALEUTIAN VORTEX FAVORS WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD
THROUGH NRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WRN GRTLKS WED AFNT/EVE. MODERATE
I285K ISENT UPGLIDE THOUGH WITH INITIAL MSTR SOURCE VOID MAY TAKE A
PROLONGED PD BEFORE TOP/DOWN SATURATION OCCURS WITH ASSOCD
FEATURE...WITH HIEST POPS WED NIGHT. THEREAFTER COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS
RAMPS LENDING TO WHITHER OF GRTLKS SYSTEM...PER MOST MODEL CONSENSUS
SANS GFSX. AGAIN ONLY A MODEST LES RESPONSE ANTICIPATED THU/THU
NIGHT AND PERHAPS AGAIN ABOUT SAT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE/WEAK
TRANSITORY SYSTEM PSBL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER MO EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY/DEEPEN TONIGHT AS IT
LIFTS RAPIDLY NE TO NRN LWR MI. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN IN ADVANCE OF
THE LOW SHOULD CONT TO IMPACT NRN INDIANA THIS EVE WITH
PREDOMINANTLY IFR CONDITIONS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS HEAVIEST PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR NORTH... BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS AND SOME -RA CHANGING TO
-SN ON MONDAY. STRONG LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE LOW WILL LIFT NE
ACROSS OH TONIGHT BUT IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO KFWA TO CAUSE
SGFNT LLWS THREAT. SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL VEER SW AS THE
LOW PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
VERY STRONG SW-W WINDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTN. GIVEN FCST CLOUD
COVER WAS CONSERVATIVE WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 38KT... BUT 5-10KT
HIGHER THAN THAT ARE PSBL.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/
     MONDAY FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/NG/JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 232322
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
622 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 621 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT CAUSING WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA ON MONDAY RESULTING IN VERY WINDY AND MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA... WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S... WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 30S ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE FLUX
INCREASES IN THE LOW LEVELS. RAISED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN
INCH BY EARLY MONDAY. UPSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS HAVE DROPPED TO 8
MB/3HR... INDICATIVE OF A WELL/DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LAYERS AND DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. AS
FOR MONDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A VERY TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...ALTHOUGH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FEW CHANGES WRT LATEST LONG TERM PD. INTENSE SHORTWAVES WITHIN
LONGWAVE TROF FIRST LIFTING NWD FROM NERN MS WITH ADDNL ENERGY
ASSOCD UPSTREAM WITH EXIT REGION OF 140-150 KT ULVL JET TO EJECT
INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION IN NEG TILT FASHION WITH MARKED/RAPID
DEEPENING OF SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NNEWD FM ERN OK TO N OF LK SUPR
BY 18 UTC MON. CONTINUE TO FAVOR TIMING OF CHANGEOVER MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LAGGED WARM TW ALOFT TRAILING WELL BEHIND SFC FNTL ZONE
PASSAGE. HIEST POPS/QPF/SNOWFALL IN NWNR CWA IN LINE WITH STRONGEST
MID LVL DEFORMATION/DEEPER MSTR WRAPPING SFC LOW. FOLLOWED BY MODEST
LES RESPONSE WITH MID/UPPER TEENS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS TONED DOWN BY
ANEMIC SATURATION WITHIN A SHALLOW DGZ LYR. NEXT NRN STREAM WAVE
EMITTED FM ALEUTIAN VORTEX FAVORS WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD
THROUGH NRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WRN GRTLKS WED AFNT/EVE. MODERATE
I285K ISENT UPGLIDE THOUGH WITH INITIAL MSTR SOURCE VOID MAY TAKE A
PROLONGED PD BEFORE TOP/DOWN SATURATION OCCURS WITH ASSOCD
FEATURE...WITH HIEST POPS WED NIGHT. THEREAFTER COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS
RAMPS LENDING TO WHITHER OF GRTLKS SYSTEM...PER MOST MODEL CONSENSUS
SANS GFSX. AGAIN ONLY A MODEST LES RESPONSE ANTICIPATED THU/THU
NIGHT AND PERHAPS AGAIN ABOUT SAT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE/WEAK
TRANSITORY SYSTEM PSBL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER MO EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY/DEEPEN TONIGHT AS IT
LIFTS RAPIDLY NE TO NRN LWR MI. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN IN ADVANCE OF
THE LOW SHOULD CONT TO IMPACT NRN INDIANA THIS EVE WITH
PREDOMINANTLY IFR CONDITIONS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS HEAVIEST PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR NORTH... BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS AND SOME -RA CHANGING TO
-SN ON MONDAY. STRONG LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE LOW WILL LIFT NE
ACROSS OH TONIGHT BUT IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO KFWA TO CAUSE
SGFNT LLWS THREAT. SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL VEER SW AS THE
LOW PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
VERY STRONG SW-W WINDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTN. GIVEN FCST CLOUD
COVER WAS CONSERVATIVE WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 38KT... BUT 5-10KT
HIGHER THAN THAT ARE PSBL.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/
     MONDAY FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/NG/JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 232114
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
414 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG
WITH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE FLUX
INCREASES IN THE LOW LEVELS. RAISED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN
INCH BY EARLY MONDAY. UPSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS HAVE DROPPED TO 8
MB/3HR... INDICATIVE OF A WELL/DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LAYERS AND DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. AS
FOR MONDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A VERY TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...ALTHOUGH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FEW CHANGES WRT LATEST LONG TERM PD. INTENSE SHORTWAVES WITHIN
LONGWAVE TROF FIRST LIFTING NWD FROM NERN MS WITH ADDNL ENERGY
ASSOCD UPSTREAM WITH EXIT REGION OF 140-150 KT ULVL JET TO EJECT
INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION IN NEG TILT FASHION WITH MARKED/RAPID
DEEPENING OF SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NNEWD FM ERN OK TO N OF LK SUPR
BY 18 UTC MON. CONTINUE TO FAVOR TIMING OF CHANGEOVER MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LAGGED WARM TW ALOFT TRAILING WELL BEHIND SFC FNTL ZONE
PASSAGE. HIEST POPS/QPF/SNOWFALL IN NWNR CWA IN LINE WITH STRONGEST
MID LVL DEFORMATION/DEEPER MSTR WRAPPING SFC LOW. FOLLOWED BY MODEST
LES RESPONSE WITH MID/UPPER TEENS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS TONED DOWN BY
ANEMIC SATURATION WITHIN A SHALLOW DGZ LYR. NEXT NRN STREAM WAVE
EMITTED FM ALEUTIAN VORTEX FAVORS WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD
THROUGH NRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WRN GRTLKS WED AFNT/EVE. MODERATE
I285K ISENT UPGLIDE THOUGH WITH INITIAL MSTR SOURCE VOID MAY TAKE A
PROLONGED PD BEFORE TOP/DOWN SATURATION OCCURS WITH ASSOCD
FEATURE...WITH HIEST POPS WED NIGHT. THEREAFTER COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS
RAMPS LENDING TO WHITHER OF GRTLKS SYSTEM...PER MOST MODEL CONSENSUS
SANS GFSX. AGAIN ONLY A MODEST LES RESPONSE ANTICIPATED THU/THU
NIGHT AND PERHAPS AGAIN ABOUT SAT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE/WEAK
TRANSITORY SYSTEM PSBL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE EXIT REGION OF A VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES IN THE
LOW LEVELS. ADDED TEMPO HEAVY RAIN AT BOTH SBN AND FWA IN THIS
REGARD. ALSO...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS A VERY
TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/
     MONDAY FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/NG
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 232114
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
414 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG
WITH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE FLUX
INCREASES IN THE LOW LEVELS. RAISED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND AN
INCH BY EARLY MONDAY. UPSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS HAVE DROPPED TO 8
MB/3HR... INDICATIVE OF A WELL/DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LAYERS AND DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. AS
FOR MONDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A VERY TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...ALTHOUGH NO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FEW CHANGES WRT LATEST LONG TERM PD. INTENSE SHORTWAVES WITHIN
LONGWAVE TROF FIRST LIFTING NWD FROM NERN MS WITH ADDNL ENERGY
ASSOCD UPSTREAM WITH EXIT REGION OF 140-150 KT ULVL JET TO EJECT
INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION IN NEG TILT FASHION WITH MARKED/RAPID
DEEPENING OF SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NNEWD FM ERN OK TO N OF LK SUPR
BY 18 UTC MON. CONTINUE TO FAVOR TIMING OF CHANGEOVER MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LAGGED WARM TW ALOFT TRAILING WELL BEHIND SFC FNTL ZONE
PASSAGE. HIEST POPS/QPF/SNOWFALL IN NWNR CWA IN LINE WITH STRONGEST
MID LVL DEFORMATION/DEEPER MSTR WRAPPING SFC LOW. FOLLOWED BY MODEST
LES RESPONSE WITH MID/UPPER TEENS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS TONED DOWN BY
ANEMIC SATURATION WITHIN A SHALLOW DGZ LYR. NEXT NRN STREAM WAVE
EMITTED FM ALEUTIAN VORTEX FAVORS WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD
THROUGH NRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT INTO WRN GRTLKS WED AFNT/EVE. MODERATE
I285K ISENT UPGLIDE THOUGH WITH INITIAL MSTR SOURCE VOID MAY TAKE A
PROLONGED PD BEFORE TOP/DOWN SATURATION OCCURS WITH ASSOCD
FEATURE...WITH HIEST POPS WED NIGHT. THEREAFTER COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS
RAMPS LENDING TO WHITHER OF GRTLKS SYSTEM...PER MOST MODEL CONSENSUS
SANS GFSX. AGAIN ONLY A MODEST LES RESPONSE ANTICIPATED THU/THU
NIGHT AND PERHAPS AGAIN ABOUT SAT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE/WEAK
TRANSITORY SYSTEM PSBL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE EXIT REGION OF A VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES IN THE
LOW LEVELS. ADDED TEMPO HEAVY RAIN AT BOTH SBN AND FWA IN THIS
REGARD. ALSO...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS A VERY
TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/
     MONDAY FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/NG
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 231941
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
241 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG
WITH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST ITEMS TO ADDRESS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
ONGOING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF 900-750 HPA MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN THAT HAS AFFECTED PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA DURING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
PROGS SUGGEST THAT MAGNITUDE OF THIS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
IDEA IS SUPPORTED WELL IN HIGHER RES ARW/NMM OUTPUT THIS MORNING.
THUS WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH A FAIRLY STEADY DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. DAYBREAK SHOULD ALSO MARK THE APPROXIMATE TIME WEAK VORT
MAX EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THUS...STILL EXPECTING A SIZABLE LULL IN
GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING.

BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. INITIAL HIGHER
POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW
ZONE AND DEPEND ON EXACT POSITIONING OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER...TOWARD EVENING...GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT INCREASING AS SMALLER SCALE
UPPER VORT MAX TRACKS INTO OHIO VALLEY...AND LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH WORKS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ALSO
SHOULD TEND TO AID IN EXPANDING RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO CHANGE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH SOME RESPECTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
22Z-06Z TIMEFRAME AS STRONGER UVM SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE. POCKET OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
LARGER SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

GIVEN STRONG LLJ/UPPER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...REALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD THUNDER ANY TIME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY LOW FOR
ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE VERY LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD SETUP
POCKET OF WEAK INSTABILITY FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES....HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE
TO CONTINUED WAA/LLJ/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON PTYPE/STRONG WINDS/FALLING TEMPS WITH DYNAMIC
PHASED LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY-MONDAY
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY CHILLY/DRIER THEREAFTER...

00Z GUIDANCE OVERALL PICKING UP ON STRONGER SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.
THE RESULT HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST DEFORMATION/FGEN
AXIS LIFTING NE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES MON-MON EVE
AS THIS JET COUPLING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITHIN THIS BURGEONING DEFORMATION AXIS MON
AFTN. FAVORED ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PIVOT INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SW LOWER MI THANKS TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD IMPINGE ON SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
SUPPORTING A DOWNTREND IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...WITH
LATER CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES (LITTLE TO NO ACCUM)
DELAYED TO LATE MON EVE HERE AS PRIMARY HEIGHT FALL AXIS SETTLES IN.
HEADLINE WORTHY WIND GUSTS (>45 MPH) ALSO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATER MON MORNING-AFTN. STILL CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW DEEP SFC REFLECTION WILL
BE ONCE REACHING THE NRN LAKES...RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY.
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF MIXED LAYER IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLD ADVECTION PROCESS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TAP INTO
40-50 KT 900 MB JET CORE (LOW CONFIDENCE).

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES AS 850
MB DELTA T`S DROP INTO THE MID TEENS. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO LOWER
AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW IS EXPECTED WED THRU SAT...BUT EXPECT THE LOCAL
AREA TO MAINLY REMAIN ON COLD SIDE OF A PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY
BAROCLINIC ZONE...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. SEVERAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH IN
THIS FLOW...ONE LATER WED-THU AM AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE TOWARD END OF
PERIOD...BRINGING A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW AND RENEWED
LAKE RESPONSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE EXIT REGION OF A VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES IN THE
LOW LEVELS. ADDED TEMPO HEAVY RAIN AT BOTH SBN AND FWA IN THIS
REGARD. ALSO...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS A VERY
TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE AREA.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/NG
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 231941
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
241 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG
WITH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST ITEMS TO ADDRESS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
ONGOING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF 900-750 HPA MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN THAT HAS AFFECTED PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA DURING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
PROGS SUGGEST THAT MAGNITUDE OF THIS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
IDEA IS SUPPORTED WELL IN HIGHER RES ARW/NMM OUTPUT THIS MORNING.
THUS WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH A FAIRLY STEADY DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. DAYBREAK SHOULD ALSO MARK THE APPROXIMATE TIME WEAK VORT
MAX EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THUS...STILL EXPECTING A SIZABLE LULL IN
GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING.

BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. INITIAL HIGHER
POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW
ZONE AND DEPEND ON EXACT POSITIONING OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER...TOWARD EVENING...GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT INCREASING AS SMALLER SCALE
UPPER VORT MAX TRACKS INTO OHIO VALLEY...AND LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH WORKS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ALSO
SHOULD TEND TO AID IN EXPANDING RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO CHANGE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH SOME RESPECTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
22Z-06Z TIMEFRAME AS STRONGER UVM SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE. POCKET OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
LARGER SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

GIVEN STRONG LLJ/UPPER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...REALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD THUNDER ANY TIME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY LOW FOR
ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE VERY LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD SETUP
POCKET OF WEAK INSTABILITY FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES....HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE
TO CONTINUED WAA/LLJ/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON PTYPE/STRONG WINDS/FALLING TEMPS WITH DYNAMIC
PHASED LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY-MONDAY
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY CHILLY/DRIER THEREAFTER...

00Z GUIDANCE OVERALL PICKING UP ON STRONGER SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.
THE RESULT HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST DEFORMATION/FGEN
AXIS LIFTING NE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES MON-MON EVE
AS THIS JET COUPLING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITHIN THIS BURGEONING DEFORMATION AXIS MON
AFTN. FAVORED ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PIVOT INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SW LOWER MI THANKS TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD IMPINGE ON SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
SUPPORTING A DOWNTREND IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...WITH
LATER CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES (LITTLE TO NO ACCUM)
DELAYED TO LATE MON EVE HERE AS PRIMARY HEIGHT FALL AXIS SETTLES IN.
HEADLINE WORTHY WIND GUSTS (>45 MPH) ALSO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATER MON MORNING-AFTN. STILL CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW DEEP SFC REFLECTION WILL
BE ONCE REACHING THE NRN LAKES...RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY.
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF MIXED LAYER IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLD ADVECTION PROCESS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TAP INTO
40-50 KT 900 MB JET CORE (LOW CONFIDENCE).

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES AS 850
MB DELTA T`S DROP INTO THE MID TEENS. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO LOWER
AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW IS EXPECTED WED THRU SAT...BUT EXPECT THE LOCAL
AREA TO MAINLY REMAIN ON COLD SIDE OF A PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY
BAROCLINIC ZONE...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. SEVERAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH IN
THIS FLOW...ONE LATER WED-THU AM AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE TOWARD END OF
PERIOD...BRINGING A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW AND RENEWED
LAKE RESPONSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE EXIT REGION OF A VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES IN THE
LOW LEVELS. ADDED TEMPO HEAVY RAIN AT BOTH SBN AND FWA IN THIS
REGARD. ALSO...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS A VERY
TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE AREA.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/NG
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 231814
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
114 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY
AND WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH MAINLY INTO THE MID
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST ITEMS TO ADDRESS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
ONGOING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF 900-750 HPA MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN THAT HAS AFFECTED PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA DURING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
PROGS SUGGEST THAT MAGNITUDE OF THIS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
IDEA IS SUPPORTED WELL IN HIGHER RES ARW/NMM OUTPUT THIS MORNING.
THUS WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH A FAIRLY STEADY DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. DAYBREAK SHOULD ALSO MARK THE APPROXIMATE TIME WEAK VORT
MAX EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THUS...STILL EXPECTING A SIZABLE LULL IN
GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING.

BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. INITIAL HIGHER
POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW
ZONE AND DEPEND ON EXACT POSITIONING OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER...TOWARD EVENING...GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT INCREASING AS SMALLER SCALE
UPPER VORT MAX TRACKS INTO OHIO VALLEY...AND LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH WORKS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ALSO
SHOULD TEND TO AID IN EXPANDING RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO CHANGE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH SOME RESPECTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
22Z-06Z TIMEFRAME AS STRONGER UVM SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE. POCKET OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
LARGER SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

GIVEN STRONG LLJ/UPPER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...REALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD THUNDER ANY TIME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY LOW FOR
ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE VERY LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD SETUP
POCKET OF WEAK INSTABILITY FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES....HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE
TO CONTINUED WAA/LLJ/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON PTYPE/STRONG WINDS/FALLING TEMPS WITH DYNAMIC
PHASED LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY-MONDAY
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY CHILLY/DRIER THEREAFTER...

00Z GUIDANCE OVERALL PICKING UP ON STRONGER SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.
THE RESULT HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST DEFORMATION/FGEN
AXIS LIFTING NE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES MON-MON EVE
AS THIS JET COUPLING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITHIN THIS BURGEONING DEFORMATION AXIS MON
AFTN. FAVORED ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PIVOT INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SW LOWER MI THANKS TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD IMPINGE ON SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
SUPPORTING A DOWNTREND IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...WITH
LATER CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES (LITTLE TO NO ACCUM)
DELAYED TO LATE MON EVE HERE AS PRIMARY HEIGHT FALL AXIS SETTLES IN.
HEADLINE WORTHY WIND GUSTS (>45 MPH) ALSO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATER MON MORNING-AFTN. STILL CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW DEEP SFC REFLECTION WILL
BE ONCE REACHING THE NRN LAKES...RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY.
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF MIXED LAYER IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLD ADVECTION PROCESS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TAP INTO
40-50 KT 900 MB JET CORE (LOW CONFIDENCE).

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES AS 850
MB DELTA T`S DROP INTO THE MID TEENS. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO LOWER
AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW IS EXPECTED WED THRU SAT...BUT EXPECT THE LOCAL
AREA TO MAINLY REMAIN ON COLD SIDE OF A PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY
BAROCLINIC ZONE...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. SEVERAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH IN
THIS FLOW...ONE LATER WED-THU AM AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE TOWARD END OF
PERIOD...BRINGING A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW AND RENEWED
LAKE RESPONSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE EXIT REGION OF A VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES IN THE
LOW LEVELS. ADDED TEMPO HEAVY RAIN AT BOTH SBN AND FWA IN THIS
REGARD. ALSO...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS A VERY
TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 231814
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
114 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY
AND WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH MAINLY INTO THE MID
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST ITEMS TO ADDRESS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
ONGOING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF 900-750 HPA MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN THAT HAS AFFECTED PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA DURING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
PROGS SUGGEST THAT MAGNITUDE OF THIS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
IDEA IS SUPPORTED WELL IN HIGHER RES ARW/NMM OUTPUT THIS MORNING.
THUS WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH A FAIRLY STEADY DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. DAYBREAK SHOULD ALSO MARK THE APPROXIMATE TIME WEAK VORT
MAX EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THUS...STILL EXPECTING A SIZABLE LULL IN
GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING.

BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. INITIAL HIGHER
POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW
ZONE AND DEPEND ON EXACT POSITIONING OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER...TOWARD EVENING...GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT INCREASING AS SMALLER SCALE
UPPER VORT MAX TRACKS INTO OHIO VALLEY...AND LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH WORKS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ALSO
SHOULD TEND TO AID IN EXPANDING RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO CHANGE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH SOME RESPECTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
22Z-06Z TIMEFRAME AS STRONGER UVM SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE. POCKET OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
LARGER SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

GIVEN STRONG LLJ/UPPER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...REALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD THUNDER ANY TIME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY LOW FOR
ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE VERY LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD SETUP
POCKET OF WEAK INSTABILITY FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES....HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE
TO CONTINUED WAA/LLJ/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON PTYPE/STRONG WINDS/FALLING TEMPS WITH DYNAMIC
PHASED LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY-MONDAY
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY CHILLY/DRIER THEREAFTER...

00Z GUIDANCE OVERALL PICKING UP ON STRONGER SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.
THE RESULT HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST DEFORMATION/FGEN
AXIS LIFTING NE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES MON-MON EVE
AS THIS JET COUPLING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITHIN THIS BURGEONING DEFORMATION AXIS MON
AFTN. FAVORED ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PIVOT INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SW LOWER MI THANKS TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD IMPINGE ON SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
SUPPORTING A DOWNTREND IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...WITH
LATER CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES (LITTLE TO NO ACCUM)
DELAYED TO LATE MON EVE HERE AS PRIMARY HEIGHT FALL AXIS SETTLES IN.
HEADLINE WORTHY WIND GUSTS (>45 MPH) ALSO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATER MON MORNING-AFTN. STILL CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW DEEP SFC REFLECTION WILL
BE ONCE REACHING THE NRN LAKES...RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY.
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF MIXED LAYER IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLD ADVECTION PROCESS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TAP INTO
40-50 KT 900 MB JET CORE (LOW CONFIDENCE).

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES AS 850
MB DELTA T`S DROP INTO THE MID TEENS. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO LOWER
AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW IS EXPECTED WED THRU SAT...BUT EXPECT THE LOCAL
AREA TO MAINLY REMAIN ON COLD SIDE OF A PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY
BAROCLINIC ZONE...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. SEVERAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH IN
THIS FLOW...ONE LATER WED-THU AM AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE TOWARD END OF
PERIOD...BRINGING A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW AND RENEWED
LAKE RESPONSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE EXIT REGION OF A VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A 65 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES IN THE
LOW LEVELS. ADDED TEMPO HEAVY RAIN AT BOTH SBN AND FWA IN THIS
REGARD. ALSO...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z AS A VERY
TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 231150
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
650 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY
AND WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH MAINLY INTO THE MID
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST ITEMS TO ADDRESS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
ONGOING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF 900-750 HPA MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN THAT HAS AFFECTED PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA DURING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
PROGS SUGGEST THAT MAGNITUDE OF THIS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
IDEA IS SUPPORTED WELL IN HIGHER RES ARW/NMM OUTPUT THIS MORNING.
THUS WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH A FAIRLY STEADY DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. DAYBREAK SHOULD ALSO MARK THE APPROXIMATE TIME WEAK VORT
MAX EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THUS...STILL EXPECTING A SIZABLE LULL IN
GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING.

BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. INITIAL HIGHER
POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW
ZONE AND DEPEND ON EXACT POSITIONING OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER...TOWARD EVENING...GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT INCREASING AS SMALLER SCALE
UPPER VORT MAX TRACKS INTO OHIO VALLEY...AND LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH WORKS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ALSO
SHOULD TEND TO AID IN EXPANDING RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO CHANGE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH SOME RESPECTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
22Z-06Z TIMEFRAME AS STRONGER UVM SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE. POCKET OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
LARGER SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

GIVEN STRONG LLJ/UPPER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...REALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD THUNDER ANY TIME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY LOW FOR
ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE VERY LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD SETUP
POCKET OF WEAK INSTABILITY FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES....HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE
TO CONTINUED WAA/LLJ/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON PTYPE/STRONG WINDS/FALLING TEMPS WITH DYNAMIC
PHASED LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY-MONDAY
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY CHILLY/DRIER THEREAFTER...

00Z GUIDANCE OVERALL PICKING UP ON STRONGER SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.
THE RESULT HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST DEFORMATION/FGEN
AXIS LIFTING NE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES MON-MON EVE
AS THIS JET COUPLING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITHIN THIS BURGEONING DEFORMATION AXIS MON
AFTN. FAVORED ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PIVOT INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SW LOWER MI THANKS TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD IMPINGE ON SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
SUPPORTING A DOWNTREND IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...WITH
LATER CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES (LITTLE TO NO ACCUM)
DELAYED TO LATE MON EVE HERE AS PRIMARY HEIGHT FALL AXIS SETTLES IN.
HEADLINE WORTHY WIND GUSTS (>45 MPH) ALSO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATER MON MORNING-AFTN. STILL CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW DEEP SFC REFLECTION WILL
BE ONCE REACHING THE NRN LAKES...RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY.
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF MIXED LAYER IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLD ADVECTION PROCESS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TAP INTO
40-50 KT 900 MB JET CORE (LOW CONFIDENCE).

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES AS 850
MB DELTA T`S DROP INTO THE MID TEENS. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO LOWER
AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW IS EXPECTED WED THRU SAT...BUT EXPECT THE LOCAL
AREA TO MAINLY REMAIN ON COLD SIDE OF A PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY
BAROCLINIC ZONE...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. SEVERAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH IN
THIS FLOW...ONE LATER WED-THU AM AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE TOWARD END OF
PERIOD...BRINGING A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW AND RENEWED
LAKE RESPONSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. AS THIS
OCCURS...STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WHICH AIDED
BETTER RAIN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALSO SHIFT
EASTWARD...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING RAIN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS LULL SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH JUST
SOME ISOLATED OR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED. A MORE POTENT
SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING
NORTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
AFFECTING TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAINS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO REFRAIN FROM ANY MENTION IN TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS
TIME. TREND TO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY TOWARD 00Z. IFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY AT BOTH TERMINALS TONIGHT AS SFC WARM LIFTS INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL COME INCREASED LLWS
POTENTIAL BY 00Z AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS MENTION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 231150
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
650 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY
AND WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH MAINLY INTO THE MID
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST ITEMS TO ADDRESS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
ONGOING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF 900-750 HPA MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN THAT HAS AFFECTED PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA DURING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
PROGS SUGGEST THAT MAGNITUDE OF THIS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
IDEA IS SUPPORTED WELL IN HIGHER RES ARW/NMM OUTPUT THIS MORNING.
THUS WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH A FAIRLY STEADY DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. DAYBREAK SHOULD ALSO MARK THE APPROXIMATE TIME WEAK VORT
MAX EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THUS...STILL EXPECTING A SIZABLE LULL IN
GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING.

BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. INITIAL HIGHER
POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW
ZONE AND DEPEND ON EXACT POSITIONING OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER...TOWARD EVENING...GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT INCREASING AS SMALLER SCALE
UPPER VORT MAX TRACKS INTO OHIO VALLEY...AND LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH WORKS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ALSO
SHOULD TEND TO AID IN EXPANDING RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO CHANGE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH SOME RESPECTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
22Z-06Z TIMEFRAME AS STRONGER UVM SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE. POCKET OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
LARGER SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

GIVEN STRONG LLJ/UPPER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...REALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD THUNDER ANY TIME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY LOW FOR
ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE VERY LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD SETUP
POCKET OF WEAK INSTABILITY FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES....HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE
TO CONTINUED WAA/LLJ/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON PTYPE/STRONG WINDS/FALLING TEMPS WITH DYNAMIC
PHASED LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY-MONDAY
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY CHILLY/DRIER THEREAFTER...

00Z GUIDANCE OVERALL PICKING UP ON STRONGER SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.
THE RESULT HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST DEFORMATION/FGEN
AXIS LIFTING NE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES MON-MON EVE
AS THIS JET COUPLING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITHIN THIS BURGEONING DEFORMATION AXIS MON
AFTN. FAVORED ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PIVOT INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SW LOWER MI THANKS TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD IMPINGE ON SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
SUPPORTING A DOWNTREND IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...WITH
LATER CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES (LITTLE TO NO ACCUM)
DELAYED TO LATE MON EVE HERE AS PRIMARY HEIGHT FALL AXIS SETTLES IN.
HEADLINE WORTHY WIND GUSTS (>45 MPH) ALSO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATER MON MORNING-AFTN. STILL CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW DEEP SFC REFLECTION WILL
BE ONCE REACHING THE NRN LAKES...RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY.
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF MIXED LAYER IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLD ADVECTION PROCESS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TAP INTO
40-50 KT 900 MB JET CORE (LOW CONFIDENCE).

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES AS 850
MB DELTA T`S DROP INTO THE MID TEENS. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO LOWER
AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW IS EXPECTED WED THRU SAT...BUT EXPECT THE LOCAL
AREA TO MAINLY REMAIN ON COLD SIDE OF A PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY
BAROCLINIC ZONE...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. SEVERAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH IN
THIS FLOW...ONE LATER WED-THU AM AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE TOWARD END OF
PERIOD...BRINGING A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW AND RENEWED
LAKE RESPONSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. AS THIS
OCCURS...STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WHICH AIDED
BETTER RAIN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALSO SHIFT
EASTWARD...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING RAIN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS LULL SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH JUST
SOME ISOLATED OR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED. A MORE POTENT
SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING
NORTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
AFFECTING TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAINS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO REFRAIN FROM ANY MENTION IN TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS
TIME. TREND TO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY TOWARD 00Z. IFR CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY AT BOTH TERMINALS TONIGHT AS SFC WARM LIFTS INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL COME INCREASED LLWS
POTENTIAL BY 00Z AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS MENTION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 230919
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
419 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY
AND WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH MAINLY INTO THE MID
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST ITEMS TO ADDRESS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
ONGOING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF 900-750 HPA MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN THAT HAS AFFECTED PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA DURING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
PROGS SUGGEST THAT MAGNITUDE OF THIS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
IDEA IS SUPPORTED WELL IN HIGHER RES ARW/NMM OUTPUT THIS MORNING.
THUS WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH A FAIRLY STEADY DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. DAYBREAK SHOULD ALSO MARK THE APPROXIMATE TIME WEAK VORT
MAX EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THUS...STILL EXPECTING A SIZABLE LULL IN
GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING.

BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. INITIAL HIGHER
POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW
ZONE AND DEPEND ON EXACT POSITIONING OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER...TOWARD EVENING...GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT INCREASING AS SMALLER SCALE
UPPER VORT MAX TRACKS INTO OHIO VALLEY...AND LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH WORKS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ALSO
SHOULD TEND TO AID IN EXPANDING RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO CHANGE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH SOME RESPECTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
22Z-06Z TIMEFRAME AS STRONGER UVM SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE. POCKET OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
LARGER SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

GIVEN STRONG LLJ/UPPER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...REALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD THUNDER ANY TIME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY LOW FOR
ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE VERY LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD SETUP
POCKET OF WEAK INSTABILITY FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES....HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE
TO CONTINUED WAA/LLJ/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON PTYPE/STRONG WINDS/FALLING TEMPS WITH DYNAMIC
PHASED LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY-MONDAY
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY CHILLY/DRIER THEREAFTER...

00Z GUIDANCE OVERALL PICKING UP ON STRONGER SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.
THE RESULT HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST DEFORMATION/FGEN
AXIS LIFTING NE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES MON-MON EVE
AS THIS JET COUPLING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITHIN THIS BURGEONING DEFORMATION AXIS MON
AFTN. FAVORED ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PIVOT INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SW LOWER MI THANKS TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD IMPINGE ON SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
SUPPORTING A DOWNTREND IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...WITH
LATER CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES (LITTLE TO NO ACCUM)
DELAYED TO LATE MON EVE HERE AS PRIMARY HEIGHT FALL AXIS SETTLES IN.
HEADLINE WORTHY WIND GUSTS (>45 MPH) ALSO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATER MON MORNING-AFTN. STILL CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW DEEP SFC REFLECTION WILL
BE ONCE REACHING THE NRN LAKES...RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY.
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF MIXED LAYER IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLD ADVECTION PROCESS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TAP INTO
40-50 KT 900 MB JET CORE (LOW CONFIDENCE).

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES AS 850
MB DELTA T`S DROP INTO THE MID TEENS. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO LOWER
AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW IS EXPECTED WED THRU SAT...BUT EXPECT THE LOCAL
AREA TO MAINLY REMAIN ON COLD SIDE OF A PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY
BAROCLINIC ZONE...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. SEVERAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH IN
THIS FLOW...ONE LATER WED-THU AM AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE TOWARD END OF
PERIOD...BRINGING A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW AND RENEWED
LAKE RESPONSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE HAS ALLOWED FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST INDIANA. EXPECTING KFWA TO EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HOURS OF
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING. STILL EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO AFFECT KSBN AFTER THE
08Z-09Z PERIOD ALTHOUGH MAY BE MORE OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS NATURE
AS OPPOSED TO WIDESPREAD. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT KSBN THROUGH OF THE NIGHT ALSO. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KNOTS IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADING TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HAVE
OMITTED ANY TS MENTION ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW END PROB MAY EXIST FOR
ISOLD TSRA AFTER 00Z. AFTER A FEW MORE HOURS OF LLWS MENTION TO
BEGIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WILL REINTRODUCE THIS MENTION TO
COVER THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE FURTHER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BEFORE
SFC WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 230919
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
419 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

A STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY
AND WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH MAINLY INTO THE MID
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

FORECAST ITEMS TO ADDRESS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE EVOLUTION OF
ONGOING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND THEN A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EVENT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF 900-750 HPA MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN THAT HAS AFFECTED PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE AREA DURING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
PROGS SUGGEST THAT MAGNITUDE OF THIS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
IDEA IS SUPPORTED WELL IN HIGHER RES ARW/NMM OUTPUT THIS MORNING.
THUS WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH A FAIRLY STEADY DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. DAYBREAK SHOULD ALSO MARK THE APPROXIMATE TIME WEAK VORT
MAX EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THUS...STILL EXPECTING A SIZABLE LULL IN
GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING.

BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. INITIAL HIGHER
POPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW
ZONE AND DEPEND ON EXACT POSITIONING OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. HOWEVER...TOWARD EVENING...GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT INCREASING AS SMALLER SCALE
UPPER VORT MAX TRACKS INTO OHIO VALLEY...AND LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH WORKS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE ALSO
SHOULD TEND TO AID IN EXPANDING RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. NO CHANGE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH SOME RESPECTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH
POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
22Z-06Z TIMEFRAME AS STRONGER UVM SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE. POCKET OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
LARGER SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

GIVEN STRONG LLJ/UPPER DYNAMICS/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...REALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD THUNDER ANY TIME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY LOW FOR
ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLD THUNDER WILL BE VERY LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD SETUP
POCKET OF WEAK INSTABILITY FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES....HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE
TO CONTINUED WAA/LLJ/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON PTYPE/STRONG WINDS/FALLING TEMPS WITH DYNAMIC
PHASED LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY-MONDAY
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY CHILLY/DRIER THEREAFTER...

00Z GUIDANCE OVERALL PICKING UP ON STRONGER SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140 KT UPPER JET.
THE RESULT HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD A MORE ROBUST DEFORMATION/FGEN
AXIS LIFTING NE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES MON-MON EVE
AS THIS JET COUPLING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITHIN THIS BURGEONING DEFORMATION AXIS MON
AFTN. FAVORED ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PIVOT INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SW LOWER MI THANKS TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD IMPINGE ON SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
SUPPORTING A DOWNTREND IN RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...WITH
LATER CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES (LITTLE TO NO ACCUM)
DELAYED TO LATE MON EVE HERE AS PRIMARY HEIGHT FALL AXIS SETTLES IN.
HEADLINE WORTHY WIND GUSTS (>45 MPH) ALSO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA BY LATER MON MORNING-AFTN. STILL CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW DEEP SFC REFLECTION WILL
BE ONCE REACHING THE NRN LAKES...RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY.
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES AND SLIGHT DEEPENING OF MIXED LAYER IN
RESPONSE TO THE COLD ADVECTION PROCESS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TAP INTO
40-50 KT 900 MB JET CORE (LOW CONFIDENCE).

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES AS 850
MB DELTA T`S DROP INTO THE MID TEENS. A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO LOWER
AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW IS EXPECTED WED THRU SAT...BUT EXPECT THE LOCAL
AREA TO MAINLY REMAIN ON COLD SIDE OF A PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY
BAROCLINIC ZONE...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. SEVERAL MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH IN
THIS FLOW...ONE LATER WED-THU AM AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE TOWARD END OF
PERIOD...BRINGING A COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW AND RENEWED
LAKE RESPONSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE HAS ALLOWED FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST INDIANA. EXPECTING KFWA TO EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HOURS OF
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING. STILL EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO AFFECT KSBN AFTER THE
08Z-09Z PERIOD ALTHOUGH MAY BE MORE OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS NATURE
AS OPPOSED TO WIDESPREAD. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT KSBN THROUGH OF THE NIGHT ALSO. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KNOTS IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADING TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HAVE
OMITTED ANY TS MENTION ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW END PROB MAY EXIST FOR
ISOLD TSRA AFTER 00Z. AFTER A FEW MORE HOURS OF LLWS MENTION TO
BEGIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WILL REINTRODUCE THIS MENTION TO
COVER THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE FURTHER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BEFORE
SFC WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 230554
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1254 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S... WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPS OVER OUR AREA HOLDING STEADY THIS EVE AS FAIRLY STRONG WAA
CONTS. AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING ENE TOWARD SWRN PORTION OF CWA IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WK SHRTWV LIFTING ENE THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY. AS THIS MOVES IN TEMPS MAY FALL A BIT... BUT OVERALL GOING
MINS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE TOO LOW. UPDATED TO RAISE A CATEGORY
INTO THE M-U40S WITH SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD AIR WAS OVERRIDING THE
COOLER AIR. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PER 12 KM NAM. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ICE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WRT ONGOING FORECAST. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/PLUME ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
FROM ARKLATEX 12 UTC SUN TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN EVE. 8 G/KG
1000-850 MB LAYER A BIT FARTHER NWD...NOW LAPPING AT SRN CWA SUN
NIGHT WITH PIVOT POINT OVR SERN CWA INADVOF SFC BNDRY MON AM. DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FORTIFIED BY INTENSE 150-200M/12 HR HFC LIFTING NWD
THROUGH CWA SUN NIGHT EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH AREA OF ENHANCED QPF
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA. ALSO GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF SFC FNT AND AVAILABLE MSTR HAVE RAMPED POPS SOMEWHAT INTO MON AM
AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN DY3 AFTN POPS AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
INTO CWA FM SW. EXTREME 25MB/3 HR CROSS FRONTAL FALL/RISE COUPLET
ALONG WITH QUICKLY RAMPING WRLY 60-70 KT 925 GEO FLOW PORTENDS TO
NEEDING HIR GUSTS ESPCLY ALONG LAKESHORE WITH GALE WATCH NEEDED FOR
NSH WATERS...HOLDING GUST BLO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM FOR
BERRIEN/LAPORTE. WHILE SFC FNTL TIMING CONSENSUS NUDGES A BIT
QUICKER...MAINTAINED PRIOR PTYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING GIVEN NEGATIVE
ICE INTRODUCTION WITH DRY SLOT...AND DEEPENING OF COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER STILL APPROPRIATELY LAGGED.
THEREAFTER...MODEST LES RESPONSE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING
NEWD TO CANADIAN WITH BEST FOCUS TUE...WANING INTO TUE NIGHT. LES
PARAMETERS CONT TO PRESENT RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH LK/8H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS...UNIMPRESSIVE SUPERSATURATION
AND DEPTH/COHESION OF DGZ...TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. MODELS DIVERGE
ON MAINTENANCE OF VIGORED SHORTWAVE PER WV IMAGERY NEAR
50N/140W...FAVOR ECMWF WITH MORE RECOGNIZABLE CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
WRN GRTLKS FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WED AFTN/NIGHT. AGAIN MINOR LES
INTO THU WITH PRIMARY FOCUS LEANING TO COASTAL CYCLONGENESIS OFF ERN
COAST OF FLA AS LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS OVR CNTL CONUS...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE HAS ALLOWED FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST INDIANA. EXPECTING KFWA TO EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HOURS OF
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING. STILL EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO AFFECT KSBN AFTER THE
08Z-09Z PERIOD ALTHOUGH MAY BE MORE OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS NATURE
AS OPPOSED TO WIDESPREAD. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT KSBN THROUGH OF THE NIGHT ALSO. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KNOTS IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADING TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HAVE
OMITTED ANY TS MENTION ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW END PROB MAY EXIST FOR
ISOLD TSRA AFTER 00Z. AFTER A FEW MORE HOURS OF LLWS MENTION TO
BEGIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WILL REINTRODUCE THIS MENTION TO
COVER THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE FURTHER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BEFORE
SFC WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 230554
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1254 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S... WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPS OVER OUR AREA HOLDING STEADY THIS EVE AS FAIRLY STRONG WAA
CONTS. AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING ENE TOWARD SWRN PORTION OF CWA IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WK SHRTWV LIFTING ENE THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY. AS THIS MOVES IN TEMPS MAY FALL A BIT... BUT OVERALL GOING
MINS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE TOO LOW. UPDATED TO RAISE A CATEGORY
INTO THE M-U40S WITH SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD AIR WAS OVERRIDING THE
COOLER AIR. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PER 12 KM NAM. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ICE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WRT ONGOING FORECAST. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/PLUME ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
FROM ARKLATEX 12 UTC SUN TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN EVE. 8 G/KG
1000-850 MB LAYER A BIT FARTHER NWD...NOW LAPPING AT SRN CWA SUN
NIGHT WITH PIVOT POINT OVR SERN CWA INADVOF SFC BNDRY MON AM. DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FORTIFIED BY INTENSE 150-200M/12 HR HFC LIFTING NWD
THROUGH CWA SUN NIGHT EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH AREA OF ENHANCED QPF
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA. ALSO GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF SFC FNT AND AVAILABLE MSTR HAVE RAMPED POPS SOMEWHAT INTO MON AM
AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN DY3 AFTN POPS AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
INTO CWA FM SW. EXTREME 25MB/3 HR CROSS FRONTAL FALL/RISE COUPLET
ALONG WITH QUICKLY RAMPING WRLY 60-70 KT 925 GEO FLOW PORTENDS TO
NEEDING HIR GUSTS ESPCLY ALONG LAKESHORE WITH GALE WATCH NEEDED FOR
NSH WATERS...HOLDING GUST BLO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM FOR
BERRIEN/LAPORTE. WHILE SFC FNTL TIMING CONSENSUS NUDGES A BIT
QUICKER...MAINTAINED PRIOR PTYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING GIVEN NEGATIVE
ICE INTRODUCTION WITH DRY SLOT...AND DEEPENING OF COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER STILL APPROPRIATELY LAGGED.
THEREAFTER...MODEST LES RESPONSE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING
NEWD TO CANADIAN WITH BEST FOCUS TUE...WANING INTO TUE NIGHT. LES
PARAMETERS CONT TO PRESENT RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH LK/8H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS...UNIMPRESSIVE SUPERSATURATION
AND DEPTH/COHESION OF DGZ...TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. MODELS DIVERGE
ON MAINTENANCE OF VIGORED SHORTWAVE PER WV IMAGERY NEAR
50N/140W...FAVOR ECMWF WITH MORE RECOGNIZABLE CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
WRN GRTLKS FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WED AFTN/NIGHT. AGAIN MINOR LES
INTO THU WITH PRIMARY FOCUS LEANING TO COASTAL CYCLONGENESIS OFF ERN
COAST OF FLA AS LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS OVR CNTL CONUS...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE HAS ALLOWED FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST INDIANA. EXPECTING KFWA TO EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HOURS OF
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING. STILL EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO AFFECT KSBN AFTER THE
08Z-09Z PERIOD ALTHOUGH MAY BE MORE OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS NATURE
AS OPPOSED TO WIDESPREAD. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT KSBN THROUGH OF THE NIGHT ALSO. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KNOTS IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERSPREADING TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HAVE
OMITTED ANY TS MENTION ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW END PROB MAY EXIST FOR
ISOLD TSRA AFTER 00Z. AFTER A FEW MORE HOURS OF LLWS MENTION TO
BEGIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WILL REINTRODUCE THIS MENTION TO
COVER THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE FURTHER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BEFORE
SFC WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 230159
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
859 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S... WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPS OVER OUR AREA HOLDING STEADY THIS EVE AS FAIRLY STRONG WAA
CONTS. AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING ENE TOWARD SWRN PORTION OF CWA IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WK SHRTWV LIFTING ENE THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY. AS THIS MOVES IN TEMPS MAY FALL A BIT... BUT OVERALL GOING
MINS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE TOO LOW. UPDATED TO RAISE A CATEGORY
INTO THE M-U40S WITH SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD AIR WAS OVERRIDING THE
COOLER AIR. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PER 12 KM NAM. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ICE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WRT ONGOING FORECAST. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/PLUME ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
FROM ARKLATEX 12 UTC SUN TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN EVE. 8 G/KG
1000-850 MB LAYER A BIT FARTHER NWD...NOW LAPPING AT SRN CWA SUN
NIGHT WITH PIVOT POINT OVR SERN CWA INADVOF SFC BNDRY MON AM. DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FORTIFIED BY INTENSE 150-200M/12 HR HFC LIFTING NWD
THROUGH CWA SUN NIGHT EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH AREA OF ENHANCED QPF
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA. ALSO GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF SFC FNT AND AVAILABLE MSTR HAVE RAMPED POPS SOMEWHAT INTO MON AM
AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN DY3 AFTN POPS AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
INTO CWA FM SW. EXTREME 25MB/3 HR CROSS FRONTAL FALL/RISE COUPLET
ALONG WITH QUICKLY RAMPING WRLY 60-70 KT 925 GEO FLOW PORTENDS TO
NEEDING HIR GUSTS ESPCLY ALONG LAKESHORE WITH GALE WATCH NEEDED FOR
NSH WATERS...HOLDING GUST BLO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM FOR
BERRIEN/LAPORTE. WHILE SFC FNTL TIMING CONSENSUS NUDGES A BIT
QUICKER...MAINTAINED PRIOR PTYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING GIVEN NEGATIVE
ICE INTRODUCTION WITH DRY SLOT...AND DEEPENING OF COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER STILL APPROPRIATELY LAGGED.
THEREAFTER...MODEST LES RESPONSE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING
NEWD TO CANADIAN WITH BEST FOCUS TUE...WANING INTO TUE NIGHT. LES
PARAMETERS CONT TO PRESENT RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH LK/8H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS...UNIMPRESSIVE SUPERSATURATION
AND DEPTH/COHESION OF DGZ...TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. MODELS DIVERGE
ON MAINTENANCE OF VIGORED SHORTWAVE PER WV IMAGERY NEAR
50N/140W...FAVOR EMCWF WITH MORE RECOGNIZABLE CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
WRN GRTLKS FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WED AFTN/NIGHT. AGAIN MINOR LES
INTO THU WITH PRIMARY FOCUS LEANING TO COASTAL CYCLONGENESIS OFF ERN
COAST OF FLA AS LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS OVR CNTL CONUS...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

GULF MOISTURE FLOWING N-NE AROUND STRONG SFC HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE NC
COAST WAS RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM EAST TX N-NE TO
WI-MI... INCLUDING AT KSBN. SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH WK SHRTWV MOVG
THROUGH THE AREA ATTM SHOULD MAINLY BE EAST OF KSBN AND REMAIN
NORTH OF KFWA THIS EVE. FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT WK SHRTWV
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHORT PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APCHG STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV/SFC WARM FRONT
OVERSPREADS NRN INDIANA.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 230159
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
859 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S... WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPS OVER OUR AREA HOLDING STEADY THIS EVE AS FAIRLY STRONG WAA
CONTS. AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING ENE TOWARD SWRN PORTION OF CWA IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WK SHRTWV LIFTING ENE THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY. AS THIS MOVES IN TEMPS MAY FALL A BIT... BUT OVERALL GOING
MINS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE TOO LOW. UPDATED TO RAISE A CATEGORY
INTO THE M-U40S WITH SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD AIR WAS OVERRIDING THE
COOLER AIR. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PER 12 KM NAM. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ICE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WRT ONGOING FORECAST. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/PLUME ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
FROM ARKLATEX 12 UTC SUN TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN EVE. 8 G/KG
1000-850 MB LAYER A BIT FARTHER NWD...NOW LAPPING AT SRN CWA SUN
NIGHT WITH PIVOT POINT OVR SERN CWA INADVOF SFC BNDRY MON AM. DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FORTIFIED BY INTENSE 150-200M/12 HR HFC LIFTING NWD
THROUGH CWA SUN NIGHT EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH AREA OF ENHANCED QPF
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA. ALSO GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF SFC FNT AND AVAILABLE MSTR HAVE RAMPED POPS SOMEWHAT INTO MON AM
AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN DY3 AFTN POPS AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
INTO CWA FM SW. EXTREME 25MB/3 HR CROSS FRONTAL FALL/RISE COUPLET
ALONG WITH QUICKLY RAMPING WRLY 60-70 KT 925 GEO FLOW PORTENDS TO
NEEDING HIR GUSTS ESPCLY ALONG LAKESHORE WITH GALE WATCH NEEDED FOR
NSH WATERS...HOLDING GUST BLO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM FOR
BERRIEN/LAPORTE. WHILE SFC FNTL TIMING CONSENSUS NUDGES A BIT
QUICKER...MAINTAINED PRIOR PTYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING GIVEN NEGATIVE
ICE INTRODUCTION WITH DRY SLOT...AND DEEPENING OF COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER STILL APPROPRIATELY LAGGED.
THEREAFTER...MODEST LES RESPONSE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING
NEWD TO CANADIAN WITH BEST FOCUS TUE...WANING INTO TUE NIGHT. LES
PARAMETERS CONT TO PRESENT RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH LK/8H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS...UNIMPRESSIVE SUPERSATURATION
AND DEPTH/COHESION OF DGZ...TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. MODELS DIVERGE
ON MAINTENANCE OF VIGORED SHORTWAVE PER WV IMAGERY NEAR
50N/140W...FAVOR EMCWF WITH MORE RECOGNIZABLE CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
WRN GRTLKS FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WED AFTN/NIGHT. AGAIN MINOR LES
INTO THU WITH PRIMARY FOCUS LEANING TO COASTAL CYCLONGENESIS OFF ERN
COAST OF FLA AS LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS OVR CNTL CONUS...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

GULF MOISTURE FLOWING N-NE AROUND STRONG SFC HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE NC
COAST WAS RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM EAST TX N-NE TO
WI-MI... INCLUDING AT KSBN. SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH WK SHRTWV MOVG
THROUGH THE AREA ATTM SHOULD MAINLY BE EAST OF KSBN AND REMAIN
NORTH OF KFWA THIS EVE. FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT WK SHRTWV
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHORT PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APCHG STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV/SFC WARM FRONT
OVERSPREADS NRN INDIANA.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 222346
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
646 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S... WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE N-NE PORTION OF CWA EARLY THIS
EVE AS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WK
SHRTWV WAS MOVG THROUGH FAR NRN INDIANA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
SRN MI ATTM. BEYOND THIS... EXPECT A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN IN THE PRE-DWAN HOURS AS
ANOTHER WK SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH. HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FCST AND WERE ADJUSTED UP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NO CHANGES TO LOWS ATTM... THOUGH CONCERNED WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTG OVERNIGHT... THAT GOING LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO
COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD AIR WAS OVERRIDING THE
COOLER AIR. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PER 12 KM NAM. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ICE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WRT ONGOING FORECAST. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/PLUME ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
FROM ARKLATEX 12 UTC SUN TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN EVE. 8 G/KG
1000-850 MB LAYER A BIT FARTHER NWD...NOW LAPPING AT SRN CWA SUN
NIGHT WITH PIVOT POINT OVR SERN CWA INADVOF SFC BNDRY MON AM. DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FORTIFIED BY INTENSE 150-200M/12 HR HFC LIFTING NWD
THROUGH CWA SUN NIGHT EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH AREA OF ENHANCED QPF
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA. ALSO GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF SFC FNT AND AVAILABLE MSTR HAVE RAMPED POPS SOMEWHAT INTO MON AM
AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN DY3 AFTN POPS AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
INTO CWA FM SW. EXTREME 25MB/3 HR CROSS FRONTAL FALL/RISE COUPLET
ALONG WITH QUICKLY RAMPING WRLY 60-70 KT 925 GEO FLOW PORTENDS TO
NEEDING HIR GUSTS ESPCLY ALONG LAKESHORE WITH GALE WATCH NEEDED FOR
NSH WATERS...HOLDING GUST BLO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM FOR
BERRIEN/LAPORTE. WHILE SFC FNTL TIMING CONSENSUS NUDGES A BIT
QUICKER...MAINTAINED PRIOR PTYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING GIVEN NEGATIVE
ICE INTRODUCTION WITH DRY SLOT...AND DEEPENING OF COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER STILL APPROPRIATELY LAGGED.
THEREAFTER...MODEST LES RESPONSE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING
NEWD TO CANADIAN WITH BEST FOCUS TUE...WANING INTO TUE NIGHT. LES
PARAMETERS CONT TO PRESENT RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH LK/8H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS...UNIMPRESSIVE SUPERSATURATION
AND DEPTH/COHESION OF DGZ...TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. MODELS DIVERGE
ON MAINTENANCE OF VIGORED SHORTWAVE PER WV IMAGERY NEAR
50N/140W...FAVOR EMCWF WITH MORE RECOGNIZABLE CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
WRN GRTLKS FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WED AFTN/NIGHT. AGAIN MINOR LES
INTO THU WITH PRIMARY FOCUS LEANING TO COASTAL CYCLONGENESIS OFF ERN
COAST OF FLA AS LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS OVR CNTL CONUS...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

GULF MOISTURE FLOWING N-NE AROUND STRONG SFC HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE NC
COAST WAS RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM EAST TX N-NE TO
WI-MI... INCLUDING AT KSBN. SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH WK SHRTWV MOVG
THROUGH THE AREA ATTM SHOULD MAINLY BE EAST OF KSBN AND REMAIN
NORTH OF KFWA THIS EVE. FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT WK SHRTWV
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHORT PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APCHG STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV/SFC WARM FRONT
OVERSPREADS NRN INDIANA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
UPDATE...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 222346
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
646 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S... WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE N-NE PORTION OF CWA EARLY THIS
EVE AS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WK
SHRTWV WAS MOVG THROUGH FAR NRN INDIANA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
SRN MI ATTM. BEYOND THIS... EXPECT A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN IN THE PRE-DWAN HOURS AS
ANOTHER WK SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH. HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FCST AND WERE ADJUSTED UP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NO CHANGES TO LOWS ATTM... THOUGH CONCERNED WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTG OVERNIGHT... THAT GOING LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO
COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD AIR WAS OVERRIDING THE
COOLER AIR. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PER 12 KM NAM. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ICE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WRT ONGOING FORECAST. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/PLUME ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
FROM ARKLATEX 12 UTC SUN TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN EVE. 8 G/KG
1000-850 MB LAYER A BIT FARTHER NWD...NOW LAPPING AT SRN CWA SUN
NIGHT WITH PIVOT POINT OVR SERN CWA INADVOF SFC BNDRY MON AM. DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FORTIFIED BY INTENSE 150-200M/12 HR HFC LIFTING NWD
THROUGH CWA SUN NIGHT EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH AREA OF ENHANCED QPF
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA. ALSO GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF SFC FNT AND AVAILABLE MSTR HAVE RAMPED POPS SOMEWHAT INTO MON AM
AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN DY3 AFTN POPS AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
INTO CWA FM SW. EXTREME 25MB/3 HR CROSS FRONTAL FALL/RISE COUPLET
ALONG WITH QUICKLY RAMPING WRLY 60-70 KT 925 GEO FLOW PORTENDS TO
NEEDING HIR GUSTS ESPCLY ALONG LAKESHORE WITH GALE WATCH NEEDED FOR
NSH WATERS...HOLDING GUST BLO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM FOR
BERRIEN/LAPORTE. WHILE SFC FNTL TIMING CONSENSUS NUDGES A BIT
QUICKER...MAINTAINED PRIOR PTYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING GIVEN NEGATIVE
ICE INTRODUCTION WITH DRY SLOT...AND DEEPENING OF COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER STILL APPROPRIATELY LAGGED.
THEREAFTER...MODEST LES RESPONSE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING
NEWD TO CANADIAN WITH BEST FOCUS TUE...WANING INTO TUE NIGHT. LES
PARAMETERS CONT TO PRESENT RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH LK/8H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS...UNIMPRESSIVE SUPERSATURATION
AND DEPTH/COHESION OF DGZ...TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. MODELS DIVERGE
ON MAINTENANCE OF VIGORED SHORTWAVE PER WV IMAGERY NEAR
50N/140W...FAVOR EMCWF WITH MORE RECOGNIZABLE CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
WRN GRTLKS FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WED AFTN/NIGHT. AGAIN MINOR LES
INTO THU WITH PRIMARY FOCUS LEANING TO COASTAL CYCLONGENESIS OFF ERN
COAST OF FLA AS LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS OVR CNTL CONUS...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

GULF MOISTURE FLOWING N-NE AROUND STRONG SFC HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE NC
COAST WAS RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM EAST TX N-NE TO
WI-MI... INCLUDING AT KSBN. SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH WK SHRTWV MOVG
THROUGH THE AREA ATTM SHOULD MAINLY BE EAST OF KSBN AND REMAIN
NORTH OF KFWA THIS EVE. FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT WK SHRTWV
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHORT PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APCHG STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV/SFC WARM FRONT
OVERSPREADS NRN INDIANA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
UPDATE...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 222111
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN
TODAY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD AIR WAS OVERRIDING THE
COOLER AIR. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PER 12 KM NAM. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ICE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WRT ONGOING FORECAST. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/PLUME ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
FROM ARKLATEX 12 UTC SUN TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN EVE. 8 G/KG
1000-850 MB LAYER A BIT FARTHER NWD...NOW LAPPING AT SRN CWA SUN
NIGHT WITH PIVOT POINT OVR SERN CWA INADVOF SFC BNDRY MON AM. DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FORTIFIED BY INTENSE 150-200M/12 HR HFC LIFTING NWD
THROUGH CWA SUN NIGHT EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH AREA OF ENHANCED QPF
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA. ALSO GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF SFC FNT AND AVAILABLE MSTR HAVE RAMPED POPS SOMEWHAT INTO MON AM
AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN DY3 AFTN POPS AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
INTO CWA FM SW. EXTREME 25MB/3 HR CROSS FRONTAL FALL/RISE COUPLET
ALONG WITH QUICKLY RAMPING WRLY 60-70 KT 925 GEO FLOW PORTENDS TO
NEEDING HIR GUSTS ESPCLY ALONG LAKESHORE WITH GALE WATCH NEEDED FOR
NSH WATERS...HOLDING GUST BLO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM FOR
BERRIEN/LAPORTE. WHILE SFC FNTL TIMING CONSENSUS NUDGES A BIT
QUICKER...MAINTAINED PRIOR PTYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING GIVEN NEGATIVE
ICE INTRODUCTION WITH DRY SLOT...AND DEEPENING OF COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER STILL APPROPRIATELY LAGGED.
THEREAFTER...MODEST LES RESPONSE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING
NEWD TO CANADIAN WITH BEST FOCUS TUE...WANING INTO TUE NIGHT. LES
PARAMETERS CONT TO PRESENT RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH LK/8H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS...UNIMPRESSIVE SUPERSATURATION
AND DEPTH/COHESION OF DGZ...TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. MODELS DIVERGE
ON MAINTENANCE OF VIGORED SHORTWAVE PER WV IMAGERY NEAR
50N/140W...FAVOR EMCWF WITH MORE RECOGNIZABLE CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
WRN GRTLKS FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WED AFTN/NIGHT. AGAIN MINOR LES
INTO THU WITH PRIMARY FOCUS LEANING TO COASTAL CYCLONGENESIS OFF ERN
COAST OF FLA AS LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS OVR CNTL CONUS...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. CIG/VSBYS
HAVE IMPROVED...ESPECIALLY AT FWA WHERE CONDITIONS HAD IMPROVED TO
VFR. SHOWERS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THAT WAS STILL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT SHOWERS OFF AND ON
DURING THE TAF PERIOD AS WARM AIR OVERRIDES COOLER AIR. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 222111
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN
TODAY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD AIR WAS OVERRIDING THE
COOLER AIR. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PER 12 KM NAM. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ICE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WRT ONGOING FORECAST. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/PLUME ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
FROM ARKLATEX 12 UTC SUN TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN EVE. 8 G/KG
1000-850 MB LAYER A BIT FARTHER NWD...NOW LAPPING AT SRN CWA SUN
NIGHT WITH PIVOT POINT OVR SERN CWA INADVOF SFC BNDRY MON AM. DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FORTIFIED BY INTENSE 150-200M/12 HR HFC LIFTING NWD
THROUGH CWA SUN NIGHT EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH AREA OF ENHANCED QPF
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA. ALSO GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF SFC FNT AND AVAILABLE MSTR HAVE RAMPED POPS SOMEWHAT INTO MON AM
AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN DY3 AFTN POPS AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
INTO CWA FM SW. EXTREME 25MB/3 HR CROSS FRONTAL FALL/RISE COUPLET
ALONG WITH QUICKLY RAMPING WRLY 60-70 KT 925 GEO FLOW PORTENDS TO
NEEDING HIR GUSTS ESPCLY ALONG LAKESHORE WITH GALE WATCH NEEDED FOR
NSH WATERS...HOLDING GUST BLO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM FOR
BERRIEN/LAPORTE. WHILE SFC FNTL TIMING CONSENSUS NUDGES A BIT
QUICKER...MAINTAINED PRIOR PTYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING GIVEN NEGATIVE
ICE INTRODUCTION WITH DRY SLOT...AND DEEPENING OF COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER STILL APPROPRIATELY LAGGED.
THEREAFTER...MODEST LES RESPONSE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING
NEWD TO CANADIAN WITH BEST FOCUS TUE...WANING INTO TUE NIGHT. LES
PARAMETERS CONT TO PRESENT RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH LK/8H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS...UNIMPRESSIVE SUPERSATURATION
AND DEPTH/COHESION OF DGZ...TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. MODELS DIVERGE
ON MAINTENANCE OF VIGORED SHORTWAVE PER WV IMAGERY NEAR
50N/140W...FAVOR EMCWF WITH MORE RECOGNIZABLE CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
WRN GRTLKS FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WED AFTN/NIGHT. AGAIN MINOR LES
INTO THU WITH PRIMARY FOCUS LEANING TO COASTAL CYCLONGENESIS OFF ERN
COAST OF FLA AS LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS OVR CNTL CONUS...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. CIG/VSBYS
HAVE IMPROVED...ESPECIALLY AT FWA WHERE CONDITIONS HAD IMPROVED TO
VFR. SHOWERS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THAT WAS STILL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT SHOWERS OFF AND ON
DURING THE TAF PERIOD AS WARM AIR OVERRIDES COOLER AIR. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 221855
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
155 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN
TODAY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. CIG/VSBYS
HAVE IMPROVED...ESPECIALLY AT FWA WHERE CONDITIONS HAD IMPROVED TO
VFR. SHOWERS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THAT WAS STILL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT SHOWERS OFF AND ON
DURING THE TAF PERIOD AS WARM AIR OVERRIDES COOLER AIR. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 221456 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
955 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN
TODAY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
DID INCLUDE TEMPO IFR CIGS AT KSBN THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. BETTER
CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL EXIST AT KSBN.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP TODAY AND WITH BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH RAIN INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AS NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED LLWS
MENTION THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING FOR BOTH TERMINALS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 221456 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
955 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN
TODAY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
DID INCLUDE TEMPO IFR CIGS AT KSBN THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. BETTER
CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL EXIST AT KSBN.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP TODAY AND WITH BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH RAIN INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AS NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED LLWS
MENTION THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING FOR BOTH TERMINALS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 221454
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
954 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN
TODAY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS TODAY TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
DID INCLUDE TEMPO IFR CIGS AT KSBN THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. BETTER
CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL EXIST AT KSBN.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP TODAY AND WITH BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH RAIN INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AS NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED LLWS
MENTION THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING FOR BOTH TERMINALS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 221454
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
954 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN
TODAY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS TODAY TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
DID INCLUDE TEMPO IFR CIGS AT KSBN THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. BETTER
CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL EXIST AT KSBN.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP TODAY AND WITH BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH RAIN INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AS NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED LLWS
MENTION THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING FOR BOTH TERMINALS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 221159
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
659 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER
40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
DID INCLUDE TEMPO IFR CIGS AT KSBN THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. BETTER
CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL EXIST AT KSBN.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP TODAY AND WITH BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH RAIN INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AS NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED LLWS
MENTION THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING FOR BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
     FOR INZ003>009-012-014-016>018.

MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ077>081.

OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 221159
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
659 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER
40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
DID INCLUDE TEMPO IFR CIGS AT KSBN THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. BETTER
CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL EXIST AT KSBN.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP TODAY AND WITH BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH RAIN INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AS NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED LLWS
MENTION THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING FOR BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
     FOR INZ003>009-012-014-016>018.

MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ077>081.

OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 220849
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
349 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER
40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT APPROXIMATELY A 3 HOUR
WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN AT THE TERMINALS...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
DURING THIS PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED TO TOTAL TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TIME PERIOD OF GREATEST THREAT OF FREEZING
RAIN APPEARS TO BE FROM 08Z-12Z...WITH PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF
LIQUID PRECIP TYPE AFTER 12Z. PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
AREA...SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH RAIN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
CARRIED PREVAILING RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LATER FORECAST CYCLES MAY BE ABLE TO NARROW THIS
MENTION...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...SLUG OF DEEPER
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ADVECT BACK NORTHWARD RENEWING RAIN
LIKELIHOOD. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
BEST CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT AT KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
     FOR INZ003>005-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ006>009.

MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077-
     078.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ079>081.

OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ015-
     016-024-025.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 220849
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
349 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER
40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT APPROXIMATELY A 3 HOUR
WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN AT THE TERMINALS...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
DURING THIS PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED TO TOTAL TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TIME PERIOD OF GREATEST THREAT OF FREEZING
RAIN APPEARS TO BE FROM 08Z-12Z...WITH PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF
LIQUID PRECIP TYPE AFTER 12Z. PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
AREA...SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH RAIN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
CARRIED PREVAILING RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LATER FORECAST CYCLES MAY BE ABLE TO NARROW THIS
MENTION...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...SLUG OF DEEPER
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ADVECT BACK NORTHWARD RENEWING RAIN
LIKELIHOOD. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
BEST CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT AT KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
     FOR INZ003>005-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ006>009.

MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077-
     078.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ079>081.

OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ015-
     016-024-025.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 220552
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1252 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO SATURDAY...DRAWING IN WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK SYSTEM...STARTING AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE REACHED EARLY...PRIMARILY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MINOR CHANGES ON EVE UPDATE TO PUSH BACK START OF MENTIONABLE POPS
UNTIL 06Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SHOWERS DVLPG OVER MO WILL TAKE
AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA AND MAY DIMINISH SOME AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER IL/IN. A SHORT FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP AND SFC TEMPS
IN OUR CWA IF AND WHEN PRECIP OCCURS... SO HELD OFF FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL START TO THE SHORT TERM WILL QUICKLY END AS THE FIRST IN
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE REGION AND RETURNS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

LEADING EDGE OF FIRST WAVE WAS ALREADY MOVING INTO MISSOURI AND WILL
ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN THE 6 TO 9Z SAT WINDOW
ALLOWING FOR LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE AND LIGHT RAIN TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS NW PARTS OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST.
CONCERNS STILL LOOM FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET
AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS OVERTOP A SHALLOW COLD DOME IN
PLACE FROM THE RECENT COLD SNAP. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST THIS
COLD DOME IS PUSHED OUT. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED FASTER WITH
ARRIVAL OF WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH ALL BUT NE SECTIONS
LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z SAT. A 2 TO MAYBE 4 HOUR WINDOW WILL
EXIST AT ANY ONE SPOT FOR SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION AS THE COLD
GROUND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO WARM...EVEN AS TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 33 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE...ANY
ICE ACCRETION SHOULD END. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH
CAT POPS IN THE NW TO HIGH CHC IN SE WHERE DEEPER MSTR WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO ARRIVE. WHILE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT MOST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...THIS MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME SLICK
SPOTS. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THE DURATION AND EXTENT OF ICING IS STILL
LOW...WILL FRESHEN UP THE SPS ISSUED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. LOWS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES FROM THAT
POINT.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS PEAK LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA. MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS...HIGHEST NW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW UPPER 40S IN SW
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON WEEKEND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING. FOCUS CONTS ON TWO
PRIMARY/HEIGHTENED RAFL EVENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
LIGHT/PROLONGED QPF EVENT. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NRN STREAM OVR
CNTL MT TIMED INTO UPR GRTLKS SAT NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH FIRST
MOISTURE SLUG PER 1000-850MB MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE/6-7 G/KG
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON HIR LATE NIGHT
POPS/QPF. THEREAFTER...PSBL LULL/LIGHT FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS FORESEEN. SECOND ARDENT FOCUSED
LIFT/MOISTURE SURGE SUNDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
VORTEX OVR GULF OF CAL DROPPING THROUGH EDWARDS PLATEAU THEN
LIFTING FROM NERN TX RAPIDLY NEWD INTO OHIO VALLEY LATE DY3.
PWATS RISE TO 1-1.1 INCHES APPROX 80TH PERCENTILE/ SUN EVE/ERLY
NIGHT AS EVEN GREATER BULK MOISTURE SURGE WITH 8 G/KG NOSING INTO
CNTL IN BY F66. FORCED PARCEL ASCENT ON NOSE OF 60-65 KT LOW
LEVEL JET COULD PORTEND TO ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA...THOUGH WITH NAM
MUCAPE BLO 50 J/KG WILL OMIT FROM FCST ATTM. LESSENED DIURNAL
SWINGS PRIMARILY WITH WARMER LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER RA/SN TO SN...PER CONSENSUS
AS ANTICIPATED WITH SYSTEM BECOMING INCRSNGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT APPROXIMATELY A 3 HOUR
WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN AT THE TERMINALS...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
DURING THIS PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED TO TOTAL TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TIME PERIOD OF GREATEST THREAT OF FREEZING
RAIN APPEARS TO BE FROM 08Z-12Z...WITH PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF
LIQUID PRECIP TYPE AFTER 12Z. PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
AREA...SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH RAIN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
CARRIED PREVAILING RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LATER FORECAST CYCLES MAY BE ABLE TO NARROW THIS
MENTION...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...SLUG OF DEEPER
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ADVECT BACK NORTHWARD RENEWING RAIN
LIKELIHOOD. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
BEST CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT AT KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...MARSILI


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