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000
FXUS63 KIWX 311100
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
700 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL DROP
INTO THE REGION ON TODAY...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY
AND COLDER CONDITIONS. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA
TODAY...SOME SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED EXCEPT DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE
1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WHERE A SINGLE BAND SETS UP.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM
SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
INTO EXTREME NORTHERN ILLINOIS. RAIN WAS CHANGING TO SNOW FARTHER
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE COLD AIR
WAS DEEPER AND THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTED ALL SNOW. A VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THE ONGOING TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WIND
ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED EARLIER APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND IN GOOD
SHAPE...NO CHANGES MADE. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
RAPIDLY TODAY AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST. AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE TO HELP PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE ADDED
A MENTION OF SLEET ALONG WITH THUNDER TODAY DOWN STREAM OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS HARDLY OFF THE GROUND WITH
EXTREMELY COLD AIR ALOFT. CONCERN FOR A FASTER CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN/SNOW OR JUST SNOW WITH VERY COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...-16C
AT 700 MB BY LATE MORNING WITH NEARLY THE ENTIRE PROFILE BELOW
FREEZING. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WAS ALSO VERY FAVORABLE FOR SNOW
GROWTH IN THE CLOUD LAYER FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SO THERE MAY BE AN EVEN FASTER CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW. KEPT THE MENTION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER FAR WEST AREAS FROM
LAPORTE COUNTY SOUTH AS A SINGLE SNOW BAND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN LAPORTE COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

STRONG SHRTWV DROPPING SE ACROSS NRN WI THIS MORNING WILL ROUND BASE
OF ERN CONUS LONGWAVE SATURDAY MORNING WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW MOVG
NNE OFF THE NE U.S. COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. STRONG RIDGE
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY. LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD GRDLY DISSIPATE DURING THE
DAY. THERMAL TROF OVER OUR AREA IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY...BUT LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS MUCH BLO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U30S/L40S. SFC HIGH EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SAT NGT RESULTING IN DRY AIRMASS... MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... AND LIGHT WINDS. THESE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE M20S OVER ALL OF THE CWA. LATEST
MOS GUIDANCE A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FCST AND DID LOWER MINS
SLIGHTLY BUT MODELS SUGGEST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER FAR WRN
AND ERN PORTION OF CWA FOR PART OF THE NGT AND A WK VORT LOBE
TOPPING UPR RIDGE OVER PLAINS MAY SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE...
SO GENERALLY STAYED ON HIGH END OF MOS ENVELOPE. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH MOVES SE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.
MODELS CONT TO SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE AFTN WHICH COMBINED WITH COLD START TO
THE DAY WILL LIMIT THE WARMUP WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
M-U40S. WAA WILL CONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING MID CLOUDS.
GOING MINS IN M-U30S A LITTLE ABOVE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE BUT SEEM
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED MIXING/CLOUDINESS.

FOR THE EXTENDED FCST... UPR FLOW EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY MON-TUE AS
DEEP TROF CURRENTLY OVER ERN PACIFIC MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS/UPR GRTLKS AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY POSITIVELY TILTED AND
FRACTURED WITH CUT-OFF LOW EVENTUALLY FORMING ALONG SWRN U.S./NWRN
MEXICO BORDER BY WED. COUPLE OF DAYS OF S-SW FLOW OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LWR MS VALLEY BEHIND STRONG DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND AHEAD OF
APCHG TROF/CDFNT SHOULD ALLOW A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE TO ADVECT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH PRECIP WATER>1" AND SFC
DWPTS IN THE L50S TUE. THIS MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR
RATHER WK FORCING ALONG TROF/CDFNT SUPPORTING LIKELY SHOWER FCST AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CWA AROUND TUE. FAST MOVG SHRTWV
EXPECTED TO MOVE ESE FROM SWRN CANADA THROUGH THE GRTLKS THU
AMPLIFYING THE FLOW A BIT. MODELS HAVE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
BUT SOME POTENTIAL STILL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND IN ITS WAKE WITH PSBL LAKE EFFECT. TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE L-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

STRONG SHRTWV DROPPING SE ACROSS WI THIS MORNING RESULTING IN AN
AREA OF RAIN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS OVER NRN INDIANA/LWR MI CHANGING
TO SNOW OVER SERN WI. THIS CHANGE IN PRECIP TYPE SHOULD SPREAD SE
ACROSS NRN INDIANA LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTN. FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY MVFR WITH SOME BRIEF IFR PSBL
DURING PERIODS OF SNOW. NW-N WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG TODAY WITH
GUSTS OVER 30KTS. WINDS WILL GRDLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH SKIES
CLEARING AT KSBN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA... ALTHOUGH
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT KFWA UNTIL AROUND 12Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR INZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ004-005-012>015-020-022.

MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ077.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ078-079.

OH...NONE.
LM...STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ046.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ046.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 310906
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
506 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL DROP
INTO THE REGION ON TODAY...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY
AND COLDER CONDITIONS. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA
TODAY...SOME SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED EXCEPT DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE
1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WHERE A SINGLE BAND SETS UP.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM
SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
INTO EXTREME NORTHERN ILLINOIS. RAIN WAS CHANGING TO SNOW FARTHER
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE COLD AIR
WAS DEEPER AND THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTED ALL SNOW. A VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THE ONGOING TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WIND
ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED EARLIER APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND IN GOOD
SHAPE...NO CHANGES MADE. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
RAPIDLY TODAY AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST. AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE TO HELP PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE ADDED
A MENTION OF SLEET ALONG WITH THUNDER TODAY DOWN STREAM OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS HARDLY OFF THE GROUND WITH
EXTREMELY COLD AIR ALOFT. CONCERN FOR A FASTER CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN/SNOW OR JUST SNOW WITH VERY COLD AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...-16C
AT 700 MB BY LATE MORNING WITH NEARLY THE ENTIRE PROFILE BELOW
FREEZING. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WAS ALSO VERY FAVORABLE FOR SNOW
GROWTH IN THE CLOUD LAYER FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SO THERE MAY BE AN EVEN FASTER CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW. KEPT THE MENTION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER FAR WEST AREAS FROM
LAPORTE COUNTY SOUTH AS A SINGLE SNOW BAND IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN LAPORTE COUNTY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

STRONG SHRTWV DROPPING SE ACROSS NRN WI THIS MORNING WILL ROUND BASE
OF ERN CONUS LONGWAVE SATURDAY MORNING WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW MOVG
NNE OFF THE NE U.S. COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. STRONG RIDGE
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY. LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD GRDLY DISSIPATE DURING THE
DAY. THERMAL TROF OVER OUR AREA IN THE MORNING SHOULD SLIDE TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY...BUT LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS MUCH BLO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U30S/L40S. SFC HIGH EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SAT NGT RESULTING IN DRY AIRMASS... MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES... AND LIGHT WINDS. THESE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE M20S OVER ALL OF THE CWA. LATEST
MOS GUIDANCE A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FCST AND DID LOWER MINS
SLIGHTLY BUT MODELS SUGGEST SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER FAR WRN
AND ERN PORTION OF CWA FOR PART OF THE NGT AND A WK VORT LOBE
TOPPING UPR RIDGE OVER PLAINS MAY SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN LATE...
SO GENERALLY STAYED ON HIGH END OF MOS ENVELOPE. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH MOVES SE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.
MODELS CONT TO SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE AFTN WHICH COMBINED WITH COLD START TO
THE DAY WILL LIMIT THE WARMUP WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
M-U40S. WAA WILL CONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING MID CLOUDS.
GOING MINS IN M-U30S A LITTLE ABOVE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE BUT SEEM
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED MIXING/CLOUDINESS.

FOR THE EXTENDED FCST... UPR FLOW EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY MON-TUE AS
DEEP TROF CURRENTLY OVER ERN PACIFIC MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS/UPR GRTLKS AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY POSITIVELY TILTED AND
FRACTURED WITH CUT-OFF LOW EVENTUALLY FORMING ALONG SWRN U.S./NWRN
MEXICO BORDER BY WED. COUPLE OF DAYS OF S-SW FLOW OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LWR MS VALLEY BEHIND STRONG DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND AHEAD OF
APCHG TROF/CDFNT SHOULD ALLOW A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE TO ADVECT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH PRECIP WATER>1" AND SFC
DWPTS IN THE L50S TUE. THIS MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR
RATHER WK FORCING ALONG TROF/CDFNT SUPPORTING LIKELY SHOWER FCST AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CWA AROUND TUE. FAST MOVG SHRTWV
EXPECTED TO MOVE ESE FROM SWRN CANADA THROUGH THE GRTLKS THU
AMPLIFYING THE FLOW A BIT. MODELS HAVE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
BUT SOME POTENTIAL STILL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND IN ITS WAKE WITH PSBL LAKE EFFECT. TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE L-M40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON AT THE START OF THIS
TAF PERIOD WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAIN WAS CHANGING TO SNOW FARTHER NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTED ALL SNOW.
A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE MIDST OF DETERIORATING
AVIATION CONDITIONS. MAY NEED TO RAISE SUSTAINED WINDS AT SBN FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF LOWER
CIGS AND INCLUDED THE MENTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS LOW
LEVEL 1000/850 THICKNESSES DROP BELOW 1300M. CONCERN FOR A FASTER
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR JUST SNOW WITH VERY COLD AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS...-16C AT 700 MB BY LATE MORNING WITH NEARLY THE ENTIRE
PROFILE BELOW FREEZING. THE DENTRITIC GROWTH ZONE VERY FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW GROWTH IN THE CLOUD LAYER FROM 15Z TO 21Z IN SBN AREA.
FOR NOW...WENT WITH A MIX AT SBN STARTING AT 20Z... BUT THIS TIME
MAY NEED TO BE MOVED UP.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR INZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ004-005-012>015-020-022.

MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ077.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ078-079.

OH...NONE.
LM...STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ046.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ046.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 310636
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
236 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL DROP
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY
AND COLDER CONDITIONS. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY...SOME SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...BUT
UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL
BRING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA...ALONG WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A SHORT WAVE ACROSS
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THAT SHOULD TAKE A TRACK PRIMARILY JUST
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. A NARROW ZONE ZONE OF WEAK
WARM ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS MAY ALLOW A FEW SPRINKLES TO
OVERSPREAD MAINLY FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ATTENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WILL FOCUS ON MORE POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY DROPPING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AN INITIAL WEAK SFC TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AFOREMENTIONED
MID MS VALLEY SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PUSH AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY. ISALLOBARIC
COUPLET IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY STRONG WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL
SUPPORT POST FRONTAL WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 50 TO 55 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION CLOSER TO THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. GUSTS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE TEMPERED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL
GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER AND CHARACTERIZED BY MORE
PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR FAR WEST/NORTHWEST LOCATIONS FOR FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. CRITERIA LEVEL GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINTAINED THE LONGEST INTO FRIDAY EVENING CLOSER TO THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. A LAKE SHORE FLOOD ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME BEACH EROSION AND MINOR
SHORELINE FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG WINDS/WAVES AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE LAKE MICHIGAN WATER LEVELS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...A BAND OF FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS PRECEDING MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIMEFRAME...OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE MAY OCCUR BETWEEN
MORE FRONTALLY FORCED PRECIP AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DPVA
ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGER UPPER VORT MAX. LOW LEVEL WET BULBS
SHOULD SUPPORT PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXING IN
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
ALL INDICATIONS STILL POINT TOWARD LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
BECOMING MORE PROMINENT BY LATE MORNING...LIKELY EVOLVING INTO A
DOMINANT SINGLE BAND...ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST
ABOUT 30 DEGREES OF SHEAR IN CLOUD BEARING LAYER. LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY PROFILES STILL LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE PER NAM BUFFER
SOUNDINGS...WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO AROUND 20K FT
BY MIDDAY. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. WITH A LONG RESIDENCE TIME
OF LOW LEVEL PARCELS GIVEN NORTHERLY FETCH...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW IN EXTENT OF SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CONCERN
THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION MAY BE A BIT TOO MUCH TO
OVERCOME. HAVE LARGELY REMAINED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF
INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE...AND MAINLY A
BIT INLAND WHERE INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MAY AID
IN FROZEN PTYPE FOR A TIME. EXACTLY WHERE MORE DOMINANT BANDING
SETS UP IS ALSO OF LOW CONFIDENCE DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK/STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT DROPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND A CLUSTER OF HIGHER RES SOLUTIONS DEPICT MORE
DOMINANT BANDING SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA.

FOR TEMPS...HAVE UTILIZED NON-DIURNAL CURVE FOR FRIDAY WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG COLD
ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

INITIAL FOCUS WILL BE ON EXPECTED LAKE EFFECT BAND WHICH MAY BE
RESIDING NEAR OR JUST OVER FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BEST WINDOW FOR ANY PRECIP (LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SOME WET
SNOW) WILL BE IN THE 00Z TO 03Z WINDOW BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE NNE AND MOVES INTO FAR NW INDIANA. MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN GRASSY AREAS BUT ROADS
SHOULD HOPEFULLY REMAIN ONLY WET EXCEPT FOR ELEVATED SURFACES. IN
THE EAST...SFC LOW WILL BE RAPIDLY REFORMING OVER THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY EVENING AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. INVERTED
TROUGH FROM THE LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. HIGHEST POPS WILL PERSIST
IN THE EVENING WITH TAPERING OVERNIGHT. PRECIP BY THIS POINT
SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE FORM OF WET SNOW WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AREAS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GREATEST HEADLINE WORTHY AREA BEING ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE WITH TIGHTEST GRADIENT EARLY EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S (THINK MANY AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 EVEN
WITH SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TRACKS INTO CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FRONT WITH AT
LEAST SOME MOISTURE RETURN BY THE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT
PERIOD. LIKELY POPS WERE INTRODUCED IN LAST FORECAST AND WHILE
NOT OVERLY WILD THIS FAR OUT WITH POPS THIS HIGH WILL STICK WITH
SIGNALS AND KEEP GENERAL IDEA IN PLACE. YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH WEDS NGT WARRANTING SLGT CHC POPS MAINLY NE
WHERE BETTER MSTR AND LIFT WILL EXIST AS MAIN TROUGH IMPACT
CENTRAL/NORTH GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON AT THE START OF THIS
TAF PERIOD WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAIN WAS CHANGING TO SNOW FARTHER NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTED ALL SNOW.
A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE MIDST OF DETERIORATING
AVIATION CONDITIONS. MAY NEED TO RAISE SUSTAINED WINDS AT SBN FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF LOWER
CIGS AND INCLUDED THE MENTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS LOW
LEVEL 1000/850 THICKNESSES DROP BELOW 1300M. CONCERN FOR A FASTER
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR JUST SNOW WITH VERY COLD AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS...-16C AT 700 MB BY LATE MORNING WITH NEARLY THE ENTIRE
PROFILE BELOW FREEZING. THE DENTRITIC GROWTH ZONE VERY FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW GROWTH IN THE CLOUD LAYER FROM 15Z TO 21Z IN SBN AREA.
FOR NOW...WENT WITH A MIX AT SBN STARTING AT 20Z... BUT THIS TIME
MAY NEED TO BE MOVED UP.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR INZ003.

     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR INZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ004-005-012>015-020-022.

MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ077.

     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR MIZ077.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MIZ078-079.

OH...NONE.
LM...STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LMZ046.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ046.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 310023
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
823 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL DROP
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY
AND COLDER CONDITIONS. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY...SOME SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...BUT
UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL
BRING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA...ALONG WITH A
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A SHORT WAVE ACROSS
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THAT SHOULD TAKE A TRACK PRIMARILY JUST
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. A NARROW ZONE ZONE OF WEAK
WARM ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS MAY ALLOW A FEW SPRINKLES TO
OVERSPREAD MAINLY FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ATTENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WILL FOCUS ON MORE POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY DROPPING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AN INITIAL WEAK SFC TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AFOREMENTIONED
MID MS VALLEY SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PUSH AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY. ISALLOBARIC
COUPLET IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY STRONG WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL
SUPPORT POST FRONTAL WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 50 TO 55 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION CLOSER TO THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. GUSTS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE TEMPERED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL
GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER AND CHARACTERIZED BY MORE
PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR FAR WEST/NORTHWEST LOCATIONS FOR FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. CRITERIA LEVEL GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINTAINED THE LONGEST INTO FRIDAY EVENING CLOSER TO THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. A LAKE SHORE FLOOD ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME BEACH EROSION AND MINOR
SHORELINE FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG WINDS/WAVES AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE LAKE MICHIGAN WATER LEVELS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...A BAND OF FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS PRECEDING MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIMEFRAME...OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE MAY OCCUR BETWEEN
MORE FRONTALLY FORCED PRECIP AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DPVA
ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGER UPPER VORT MAX. LOW LEVEL WET BULBS
SHOULD SUPPORT PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXING IN
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
ALL INDICATIONS STILL POINT TOWARD LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
BECOMING MORE PROMINENT BY LATE MORNING...LIKELY EVOLVING INTO A
DOMINANT SINGLE BAND...ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST
ABOUT 30 DEGREES OF SHEAR IN CLOUD BEARING LAYER. LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY PROFILES STILL LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE PER NAM BUFFER
SOUNDINGS...WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO AROUND 20K FT
BY MIDDAY. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. WITH A LONG RESIDENCE TIME
OF LOW LEVEL PARCELS GIVEN NORTHERLY FETCH...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW IN EXTENT OF SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CONCERN
THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION MAY BE A BIT TOO MUCH TO
OVERCOME. HAVE LARGELY REMAINED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF
INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE...AND MAINLY A
BIT INLAND WHERE INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MAY AID
IN FROZEN PTYPE FOR A TIME. EXACTLY WHERE MORE DOMINANT BANDING
SETS UP IS ALSO OF LOW CONFIDENCE DEPENDING ON EXACT
TRACK/STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT DROPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND A CLUSTER OF HIGHER RES SOLUTIONS DEPICT MORE
DOMINANT BANDING SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA.

FOR TEMPS...HAVE UTILIZED NON-DIURNAL CURVE FOR FRIDAY WITH
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG COLD
ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

INITIAL FOCUS WILL BE ON EXPECTED LAKE EFFECT BAND WHICH MAY BE
RESIDING NEAR OR JUST OVER FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BEST WINDOW FOR ANY PRECIP (LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SOME WET
SNOW) WILL BE IN THE 00Z TO 03Z WINDOW BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE NNE AND MOVES INTO FAR NW INDIANA. MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN GRASSY AREAS BUT ROADS
SHOULD HOPEFULLY REMAIN ONLY WET EXCEPT FOR ELEVATED SURFACES. IN
THE EAST...SFC LOW WILL BE RAPIDLY REFORMING OVER THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY EVENING AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. INVERTED
TROUGH FROM THE LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. HIGHEST POPS WILL PERSIST
IN THE EVENING WITH TAPERING OVERNIGHT. PRECIP BY THIS POINT
SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE FORM OF WET SNOW WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AREAS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GREATEST HEADLINE WORTHY AREA BEING ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE WITH TIGHTEST GRADIENT EARLY EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S (THINK MANY AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 EVEN
WITH SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TRACKS INTO CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FRONT WITH AT
LEAST SOME MOISTURE RETURN BY THE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT
PERIOD. LIKELY POPS WERE INTRODUCED IN LAST FORECAST AND WHILE
NOT OVERLY WILD THIS FAR OUT WITH POPS THIS HIGH WILL STICK WITH
SIGNALS AND KEEP GENERAL IDEA IN PLACE. YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH WEDS NGT WARRANTING SLGT CHC POPS MAINLY NE
WHERE BETTER MSTR AND LIFT WILL EXIST AS MAIN TROUGH IMPACT
CENTRAL/NORTH GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES CYCLONE
INTENSIFIES AS 120-150M/12HR FALLS CONGEAL ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA. FRONTAL WIND SHIFT DETAIL PUSHED AN HOUR BACK FOLLOWED
BY SHRA POTENTIAL EARLY FRI AM AS CIGS LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR
FOLLOWED BY POTNL LAKE ENHANCED PERIOD OF HEAVIER SHRA INVOF KSBN
LATE AM INTO MIDDAY...WITH EPISODIC IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SIG
BUMP IN WIND SPEED/GUSTS AS DEEPER CAA INVADES FRI AFTN...HIEST
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN/KSBN. CONTINUE GREATER OPTIMISM AT
KFWA...REMOVED FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ADDITIVE MOISTURE...WITH
CONDITIONS ABOVE FUELING/ALTERNATE REQUIREMENTS. COOLING OF SFC-
2KFT LAYER WETBULB TEMPS COULD SUPPORT MIX TO RASN...THOUGH MORE
LIKELY JUST BEYOND CURRENT FCST PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR INZ003.

     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY
     FOR INZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
     FRIDAY FOR INZ004-005-012>015-020-022.

MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ077.

     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ077.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ078-079.

OH...NONE.
LM...STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ046.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ046.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 302026
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
426 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL DROP
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY
AND COLDER CONDITIONS. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY...SOME SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...BUT
UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL BRING
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA...ALONG WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY THAT SHOULD TAKE A TRACK PRIMARILY JUST SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. A NARROW ZONE ZONE OF WEAK WARM
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS MAY ALLOW A FEW SPRINKLES TO OVERSPREAD
MAINLY FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ATTENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL FOCUS ON MORE
POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. AN INITIAL WEAK SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF AFOREMENTIONED MID MS VALLEY SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY THE MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PUSH AFTER DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. ISALLOBARIC COUPLET IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY STRONG
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPENING MIXED
LAYER WILL SUPPORT POST FRONTAL WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH
ACROSS ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 50 TO 55 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. GUSTS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MORE
TEMPERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW
LEVEL GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER AND CHARACTERIZED BY MORE
PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
FAR WEST/NORTHWEST LOCATIONS FOR FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. CRITERIA LEVEL GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED THE
LONGEST INTO FRIDAY EVENING CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.
A LAKE SHORE FLOOD ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME BEACH EROSION AND MINOR SHORELINE
FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG WINDS/WAVES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE LAKE MICHIGAN WATER LEVELS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...A BAND OF FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS PRECEDING MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIMEFRAME...OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE MAY OCCUR BETWEEN MORE
FRONTALLY FORCED PRECIP AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DPVA ACCOMPANYING
THE STRONGER UPPER VORT MAX. LOW LEVEL WET BULBS SHOULD SUPPORT
PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXING IN FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ALL INDICATIONS
STILL POINT TOWARD LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING MORE PROMINENT
BY LATE MORNING...LIKELY EVOLVING INTO A DOMINANT SINGLE
BAND...ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST ABOUT 30 DEGREES OF
SHEAR IN CLOUD BEARING LAYER. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY PROFILES
STILL LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE PER NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS...WITH LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO AROUND 20K FT BY MIDDAY. THUS...HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHWEST. WITH A LONG RESIDENCE TIME OF LOW LEVEL PARCELS GIVEN
NORTHERLY FETCH...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN EXTENT OF SNOW SHOWERS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CONCERN THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION
MAY BE A BIT TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. HAVE LARGELY REMAINED WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEA OF INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE...AND MAINLY A BIT INLAND WHERE INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR MAY AID IN FROZEN PTYPE FOR A TIME. EXACTLY WHERE MORE
DOMINANT BANDING SETS UP IS ALSO OF LOW CONFIDENCE DEPENDING ON
EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AND A CLUSTER OF HIGHER RES SOLUTIONS DEPICT
MORE DOMINANT BANDING SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA.

FOR TEMPS...HAVE UTILIZED NON-DIURNAL CURVE FOR FRIDAY WITH STEADY
OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY UNDER STRONG COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

INITIAL FOCUS WILL BE ON EXPECTED LAKE EFFECT BAND WHICH MAY BE
RESIDING NEAR OR JUST OVER FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BEST WINDOW FOR ANY PRECIP (LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SOME WET SNOW)
WILL BE IN THE 00Z TO 03Z WINDOW BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NNE
AND MOVES INTO FAR NW INDIANA. MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN GRASSY AREAS BUT ROADS SHOULD
HOPEFULLY REMAIN ONLY WET EXCEPT FOR ELEVATED SURFACES. IN THE
EAST...SFC LOW WILL BE RAPIDLY REFORMING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
EVENING AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. INVERTED TROUGH
FROM THE LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. HIGHEST POPS WILL PERSIST IN THE
EVENING WITH TAPERING OVERNIGHT. PRECIP BY THIS POINT SHOULD ALSO BE
IN THE FORM OF WET SNOW WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON GRASSY
AREAS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
GREATEST HEADLINE WORTHY AREA BEING ALONG THE LAKE SHORE WITH
TIGHTEST GRADIENT EARLY EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S (THINK MANY AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 EVEN WITH
SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY). TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND TRACKS INTO CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FRONT WITH AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE RETURN
BY THE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. LIKELY POPS WERE
INTRODUCED IN LAST FORECAST AND WHILE NOT OVERLY WILD THIS FAR OUT
WITH POPS THIS HIGH WILL STICK WITH SIGNALS AND KEEP GENERAL IDEA IN
PLACE. YET ANOTHER WAVE WILL QUICKLY APPROACH WEDS NGT WARRANTING
SLGT CHC POPS MAINLY NE WHERE BETTER MSTR AND LIFT WILL EXIST AS
MAIN TROUGH IMPACT CENTRAL/NORTH GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
FORECAST VALID PERIOD...WITH ATTENTION TURNING TO A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND GUSTY WINDS/SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT PASSAGE OF
INITIAL SFC TROUGH/COOL FRONT TOWARD 09Z SHOULD ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO
SPREAD BACK INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS INITIAL SFC TROUGH PASSAGE...WITH STRONGER SFC TROUGH POISED
TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA TOWARD 15Z. PASSAGE OF THIS
SECONDARY TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
STRENGTHENING INTO THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT KSBN. BASED ON SFC FEATURES WITH THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE...STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY BE A BIT MORE DELAYED AT
KFWA UNTIL AFTER 18Z WHEN NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. APPROACH OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND LOW LEVEL
FRONT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE...WITH PERHAPS
SOME SNOW MIXING IN...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST VALID
PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR INZ003.

     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY
     FOR INZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
     FRIDAY FOR INZ004-005-012>015-020-022.

MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ077.

     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ077.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ078-079.

OH...NONE.
LM...STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ046.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ046.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 301835
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
235 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY TODAY. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO RETURN...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE
FORM OF SOME SNOWFALL FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY AND
WET CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR HALLOWEEN AND EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY CONDITIONS
BACK TO THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT EASTWARD LATE THIS
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK DUE TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED. DEPARTURE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR LATER TONIGHT/FRIDAY. STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT AND WILL BE CONTEMPLATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR FRIDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST BEST CHANCE OF
MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
WHERE SOME GUSTS TO 50 TO 55 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT LOWER FURTHER INLAND...BUT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW LEVEL
FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM...COULD NUDGE UP AGAINST WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. MORE TO COME ON THIS FOR THE AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION. FORECAST ELEMENTS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
SKY COVER TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
VERY STRONG COLD FRONT. THE COLD AIR INITIALLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WAS NEARLY 5000 FT DEEP...AND WILL BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR
MIXING DOWN OF WARMER AIR ABOVE THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...ESPECIALLY WITH LINGERING CLOUDS JUST UNDER THE BASE OF
THE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL WITH DIURNAL
RISES LESS THAN 10 DEGREES OVER MOST AREAS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR
AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE FRONT OVER
NORTHWEST AREAS. PLACED MUCH MORE DETAIL IN THE TIMING AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SUGGESTING A STRONG SHRTWV WILL DROP
SE ACROSS THE WRN GRTLKS AND CLOSE OFF OVER OUR CWA FRIDAY. AT THE
SFC A CDFNT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY DEFORMATION
ZONE/WRAP AROUND PRECIP IN THE AFTN. BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN INITIALLY BUT PRECIP SHOULD MIX WITH IF NOT
COMPLETELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING SO GENERALLY LITTLE OR NO ACCUM EXPECTED. LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE PRECIP RATES DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN...
BUT WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER OVER/DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE SHOULD KEEP THE
PRECIP A MIX DURING THE DAY DESPITE CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT. SYNOPTIC
SCALE MOISTURE/FORCING WILL MOVE SLOWLY E-SE ACROSS THE CWA AND AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FRI AFTN/NIGHT... HOWEVER SOME LAKE INDUCED CAPE
WILL PERSIST DESPITE GRDLY LOWERING INVERSION. NAM AND LCL WRF
SUGGEST A SINGLE BAND WILL SET UP OVER NW INDIANA IMPACTING OUR WRN
TIER OF COUNTIES FRI AFTN... SHIFTING WEST OUT OF OUR AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE L-M40S...FALLING TO THE U20S/L30S FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL ALSO BE VERY WINDY IN THIS TIMEFRAME WITH GUSTS 35-45MPH WHICH
SHOULD GENERALLY BE JUST BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA... THOUGH SOME GUSTS
ABOVE 45MPH ARE LIKELY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS SUGGESTING 50KT NORTH WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC OVER THE
LAKE... SO HAVE UPGRADED MICHIGAN CITY TO NEW BUFFALO NSH ZONE TO A
STORM WARNING FOR FRIDAY... WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FARTHER NE
STILL JUST WARRANTING A HIGH END GALE FROM NEW BUFFALO TO ST.
JOSEPH.  HIGH WAVES COMBINED WITH LAKE LEVELS THAT ARE NOW SLIGHTLY
ABOVE LONG TERM AVERAGES SHOULD RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION AND
MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE SHORELINE SO ALSO ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR LAPORTE/BERRIEN COUNTIES.

CYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED TO GRDLY WANE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS OVER ERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO GRDLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA...
RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PRBLY PROVIDING THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE OF THE FALL WITH LOWS IN THE M20S OVER MOST
OF THE CWA.

FOR THE EXTENDED FCST... UPR TROF OVER THE ERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS MONDAY AND THE UPR
GRTLKS TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUE AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ONLY A MODEST COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL RECOMMENCING WAA BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
FORECAST VALID PERIOD...WITH ATTENTION TURNING TO A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND GUSTY WINDS/SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT PASSAGE OF
INITIAL SFC TROUGH/COOL FRONT TOWARD 09Z SHOULD ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO
SPREAD BACK INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS INITIAL SFC TROUGH PASSAGE...WITH STRONGER SFC TROUGH POISED
TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA TOWARD 15Z. PASSAGE OF THIS
SECONDARY TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
STRENGTHENING INTO THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT KSBN. BASED ON SFC FEATURES WITH THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE...STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY BE A BIT MORE DELAYED AT
KFWA UNTIL AFTER 18Z WHEN NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. APPROACH OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND LOW LEVEL
FRONT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE...WITH PERHAPS
SOME SNOW MIXING IN...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST VALID
PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY
     FOR INZ003.

MI...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043.

     STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ046.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 301602
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1202 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY TODAY. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO RETURN...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE
FORM OF SOME SNOWFALL FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY AND
WET CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR HALLOWEEN AND EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY CONDITIONS
BACK TO THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT EASTWARD LATE THIS
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK DUE TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED. DEPARTURE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGH WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR LATER TONIGHT/FRIDAY. STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT AND WILL BE CONTEMPLATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR FRIDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST BEST CHANCE OF
MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
WHERE SOME GUSTS TO 50 TO 55 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CONFIDENCE
IS SOMEWHAT LOWER FURTHER INLAND...BUT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW LEVEL
FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM...COULD NUDGE UP AGAINST WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. MORE TO COME ON THIS FOR THE AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION. FORECAST ELEMENTS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
SKY COVER TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
VERY STRONG COLD FRONT. THE COLD AIR INITIALLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WAS NEARLY 5000 FT DEEP...AND WILL BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR
MIXING DOWN OF WARMER AIR ABOVE THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...ESPECIALLY WITH LINGERING CLOUDS JUST UNDER THE BASE OF
THE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL WITH DIURNAL
RISES LESS THAN 10 DEGREES OVER MOST AREAS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR
AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE FRONT OVER
NORTHWEST AREAS. PLACED MUCH MORE DETAIL IN THE TIMING AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SUGGESTING A STRONG SHRTWV WILL DROP
SE ACROSS THE WRN GRTLKS AND CLOSE OFF OVER OUR CWA FRIDAY. AT THE
SFC A CDFNT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY DEFORMATION
ZONE/WRAP AROUND PRECIP IN THE AFTN. BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN INITIALLY BUT PRECIP SHOULD MIX WITH IF NOT
COMPLETELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING SO GENERALLY LITTLE OR NO ACCUM EXPECTED. LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE PRECIP RATES DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN...
BUT WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER OVER/DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE SHOULD KEEP THE
PRECIP A MIX DURING THE DAY DESPITE CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT. SYNOPTIC
SCALE MOISTURE/FORCING WILL MOVE SLOWLY E-SE ACROSS THE CWA AND AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FRI AFTN/NIGHT... HOWEVER SOME LAKE INDUCED CAPE
WILL PERSIST DESPITE GRDLY LOWERING INVERSION. NAM AND LCL WRF
SUGGEST A SINGLE BAND WILL SET UP OVER NW INDIANA IMPACTING OUR WRN
TIER OF COUNTIES FRI AFTN... SHIFTING WEST OUT OF OUR AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE L-M40S...FALLING TO THE U20S/L30S FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL ALSO BE VERY WINDY IN THIS TIMEFRAME WITH GUSTS 35-45MPH WHICH
SHOULD GENERALLY BE JUST BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA... THOUGH SOME GUSTS
ABOVE 45MPH ARE LIKELY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS SUGGESTING 50KT NORTH WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC OVER THE
LAKE... SO HAVE UPGRADED MICHIGAN CITY TO NEW BUFFALO NSH ZONE TO A
STORM WARNING FOR FRIDAY... WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FARTHER NE
STILL JUST WARRANTING A HIGH END GALE FROM NEW BUFFALO TO ST.
JOSEPH.  HIGH WAVES COMBINED WITH LAKE LEVELS THAT ARE NOW SLIGHTLY
ABOVE LONG TERM AVERAGES SHOULD RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION AND
MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE SHORELINE SO ALSO ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR LAPORTE/BERRIEN COUNTIES.

CYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED TO GRDLY WANE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS OVER ERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO GRDLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA...
RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PRBLY PROVIDING THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE OF THE FALL WITH LOWS IN THE M20S OVER MOST
OF THE CWA.

FOR THE EXTENDED FCST... UPR TROF OVER THE ERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS MONDAY AND THE UPR
GRTLKS TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUE AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ONLY A MODEST COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL RECOMMENCING WAA BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
VERY STRONG COLD FRONT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AND BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT SBN NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AMDAR DATA SUPPORTED A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION ABOUT 4000
WITH CLOUDS AT AND JUST BELOW THE BOTTOM OF THE INVERSION...SO VFR
CLOUDS SHOULD BE SLOW TO CLEAR.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY
     FOR INZ003.

MI...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043.

     STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ046.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 300955
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
555 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY TODAY. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO RETURN...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE
FORM OF SOME SNOWFALL FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY AND
WET CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR HALLOWEEN AND EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY CONDITIONS
BACK TO THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
VERY STRONG COLD FRONT. THE COLD AIR INITIALLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WAS NEARLY 5000 FT DEEP...AND WILL BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR
MIXING DOWN OF WARMER AIR ABOVE THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...ESPECIALLY WITH LINGERING CLOUDS JUST UNDER THE BASE OF
THE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL WITH DIURNAL
RISES LESS THAN 10 DEGREES OVER MOST AREAS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR
AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE FRONT OVER
NORTHWEST AREAS. PLACED MUCH MORE DETAIL IN THE TIMING AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SUGGESTING A STRONG SHRTWV WILL DROP
SE ACROSS THE WRN GRTLKS AND CLOSE OFF OVER OUR CWA FRIDAY. AT THE
SFC A CDFNT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY DEFORMATION
ZONE/WRAP AROUND PRECIP IN THE AFTN. BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN INITIALLY BUT PRECIP SHOULD MIX WITH IF NOT
COMPLETELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING SO GENERALLY LITTLE OR NO ACCUM EXPECTED. LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE PRECIP RATES DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN...
BUT WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER OVER/DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE SHOULD KEEP THE
PRECIP A MIX DURING THE DAY DESPITE CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT. SYNOPTIC
SCALE MOISTURE/FORCING WILL MOVE SLOWLY E-SE ACROSS THE CWA AND AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FRI AFTN/NIGHT... HOWEVER SOME LAKE INDUCED CAPE
WILL PERSIST DESPITE GRDLY LOWERING INVERSION. NAM AND LCL WRF
SUGGEST A SINGLE BAND WILL SET UP OVER NW INDIANA IMPACTING OUR WRN
TIER OF COUNTIES FRI AFTN... SHIFTING WEST OUT OF OUR AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE L-M40S...FALLING TO THE U20S/L30S FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL ALSO BE VERY WINDY IN THIS TIMEFRAME WITH GUSTS 35-45MPH WHICH
SHOULD GENERALLY BE JUST BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA... THOUGH SOME GUSTS
ABOVE 45MPH ARE LIKELY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS SUGGESTING 50KT NORTH WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC OVER THE
LAKE... SO HAVE UPGRADED MICHIGAN CITY TO NEW BUFFALO NSH ZONE TO A
STORM WARNING FOR FRIDAY... WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FARTHER NE
STILL JUST WARRANTING A HIGH END GALE FROM NEW BUFFALO TO ST.
JOSEPH.  HIGH WAVES COMBINED WITH LAKE LEVELS THAT ARE NOW SLIGHTLY
ABOVE LONG TERM AVERAGES SHOULD RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION AND
MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE SHORELINE SO ALSO ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR LAPORTE/BERRIEN COUNTIES.

CYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED TO GRDLY WANE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS OVER ERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO GRDLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA...
RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PRBLY PROVIDING THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE OF THE FALL WITH LOWS IN THE M20S OVER MOST
OF THE CWA.

FOR THE EXTENDED FCST... UPR TROF OVER THE ERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS MONDAY AND THE UPR
GRTLKS TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUE AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ONLY A MODEST COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL RECOMMENCING WAA BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
VERY STRONG COLD FRONT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AND BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT SBN NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AMDAR DATA SUPPORTED A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION ABOUT 4000
WITH CLOUDS AT AND JUST BELOW THE BOTTOM OF THE INVERSION...SO VFR
CLOUDS SHOULD BE SLOW TO CLEAR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY
     FOR INZ003.

MI...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043.

     STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ046.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 300911
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
418 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY TODAY. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO RETURN...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE
FORM OF SOME SNOWFALL FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY AND
WET CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR HALLOWEEN AND EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY CONDITIONS
BACK TO THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
VERY STRONG COLD FRONT. THE COLD AIR INITIALLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WAS NEARLY 5000 FT DEEP...AND WILL BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR
MIXING DOWN OF WARMER AIR ABOVE THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...ESPECIALLY WITH LINGERING CLOUDS JUST UNDER THE BASE OF
THE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL WITH DIURNAL
RISES LESS THAN 10 DEGREES OVER MOST AREAS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR
AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE FRONT OVER
NORTHWEST AREAS. PLACED MUCH MORE DETAIL IN THE TIMING AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SUGGESTING A STRONG SHRTWV WILL DROP
SE ACROSS THE WRN GRTLKS AND CLOSE OFF OVER OUR CWA FRIDAY. AT THE
SFC A CDFNT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY DEFORMATION
ZONE/WRAP AROUND PRECIP IN THE AFTN. BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN INITIALLY BUT PRECIP SHOULD MIX WITH IF NOT
COMPLETELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING SO GENERALLY LITTLE OR NO ACCUM EXPECTED. LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE PRECIP RATES DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN...
BUT WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER OVER/DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE SHOULD KEEP THE
PRECIP A MIX DURING THE DAY DESPITE CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT. SYNOPTIC
SCALE MOISTURE/FORCING WILL MOVE SLOWLY E-SE ACROSS THE CWA AND AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FRI AFTN/NIGHT... HOWEVER SOME LAKE INDUCED CAPE
WILL PERSIST DESPITE GRDLY LOWERING INVERSION. NAM AND LCL WRF
SUGGEST A SINGLE BAND WILL SET UP OVER NW INDIANA IMPACTING OUR WRN
TIER OF COUNTIES FRI AFTN... SHIFTING WEST OUT OF OUR AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE L-M40S...FALLING TO THE U20S/L30S FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL ALSO BE VERY WINDY IN THIS TIMEFRAME WITH GUSTS 35-45MPH WHICH
SHOULD GENERALLY BE JUST BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA... THOUGH SOME GUSTS
ABOVE 45MPH ARE LIKELY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS SUGGESTING 50KT NORTH WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC OVER THE
LAKE... SO HAVE UPGRADED MICHIGAN CITY TO NEW BUFFALO NSH ZONE TO A
STORM WARNING FOR FRIDAY... WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FARTHER NE
STILL JUST WARRANTING A HIGH END GALE FROM NEW BUFFALO TO ST.
JOSEPH.  HIGH WAVES COMBINED WITH LAKE LEVELS THAT ARE NOW SLIGHTLY
ABOVE LONG TERM AVERAGES SHOULD RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION AND
MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE SHORELINE SO ALSO ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR LAPORTE/BERRIEN COUNTIES.

CYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED TO GRDLY WANE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS OVER ERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO GRDLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA...
RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PRBLY PROVIDING THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE OF THE FALL WITH LOWS IN THE M20S OVER MOST
OF THE CWA.

FOR THE EXTENDED FCST... UPR TROF OVER THE ERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS MONDAY AND THE UPR
GRTLKS TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUE AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ONLY A MODEST COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL RECOMMENCING WAA BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
VERY STRONG COLD FRONT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AND BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AFTER THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SO FOR THIS 06Z CYCLE...HAVE KEPT TAFS VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY
     FOR INZ003.

MI...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043.

     STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ046.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 300818
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
418 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY TODAY. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO RETURN...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE
FORM OF SOME SNOWFALL FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY AND
WET CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR HALLOWEEN AND EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BRING DRY CONDITIONS
BACK TO THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
VERY STRONG COLD FRONT. THE COLD AIR INITIALLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WAS NEARLY 5000 FT DEEP...AND WILL BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR
MIXING DOWN OF WARMER AIR ABOVE THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...ESPECIALLY WITH LINGERING CLOUDS JUST UNDER THE BASE OF
THE INVERSION. THEREFORE...KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL WITH DIURNAL
RISES LESS THAN 10 DEGREES OVER MOST AREAS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR
AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE FRONT OVER
NORTHWEST AREAS. PLACED MUCH MORE DETAIL IN THE TIMING AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SUGGESTING A STRONG SHRTWV WILL DROP
SE ACROSS THE WRN GRTLKS AND CLOSE OFF OVER OUR CWA FRIDAY. AT THE
SFC A CDFNT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY DEFORMATION
ZONE/WRAP AROUND PRECIP IN THE AFTN. BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN INITIALLY BUT PRECIP SHOULD MIX WITH IF NOT
COMPLETELY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING SO GENERALLY LITTLE OR NO ACCUM EXPECTED. LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE PRECIP RATES DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN...
BUT WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER OVER/DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE SHOULD KEEP THE
PRECIP A MIX DURING THE DAY DESPITE CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT. SYNOPTIC
SCALE MOISTURE/FORCING WILL MOVE SLOWLY E-SE ACROSS THE CWA AND AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FRI AFTN/NIGHT... HOWEVER SOME LAKE INDUCED CAPE
WILL PERSIST DESPITE GRDLY LOWERING INVERSION. NAM AND LCL WRF
SUGGEST A SINGLE BAND WILL SET UP OVER NW INDIANA IMPACTING OUR WRN
TIER OF COUNTIES FRI AFTN... SHIFTING WEST OUT OF OUR AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE L-M40S...FALLING TO THE U20S/L30S FRIDAY NIGHT.
WILL ALSO BE VERY WINDY IN THIS TIMEFRAME WITH GUSTS 35-45MPH WHICH
SHOULD GENERALLY BE JUST BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA... THOUGH SOME GUSTS
ABOVE 45MPH ARE LIKELY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS SUGGESTING 50KT NORTH WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC OVER THE
LAKE... SO HAVE UPGRADED TO FROM MICHIGAN CITY TO NEW BUFFALO NSH
ZONE TO A STORM WARNING FOR FRIDAY... WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS
FARTHER NE STILL JUST WARRANTING A HIGH END GALE FROM NEW BUFFALO TO
ST. JOSEPH.  HIGH WAVES COMBINED WITH LAKE LEVELS THAT ARE NOW
SLIGHTLY ABOVE LONG TERM AVERAGES SHOULD RESULT IN SOME BEACH
EROSION AND MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE SHORELINE SO ALSO ISSUED A
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR LAPORTE/BERRIEN COUNTIES.

CYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED TO GRDLY WANE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS OVER ERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO GRDLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA...
RESULTING IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PRBLY PROVIDING THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE OF THE FALL WITH LOWS IN THE M20S OVER MOST
OF THE CWA.

FOR THE EXTENDED FCST... UPR TROF OVER THE ERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS MONDAY AND THE UPR
GRTLKS TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUE AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ONLY A MODEST COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL RECOMMENCING WAA BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
VERY STRONG COLD FRONT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AND BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AFTER THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SO FOR THIS 06Z CYCLE...HAVE KEPT TAFS VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY
     FOR INZ003.

MI...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043.

     STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ046.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 300541
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
141 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO
RETURN...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE FORM OF SOME SNOWFALL. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING WINDY AND WET CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR HALLOWEEN AND
EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY
BRING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND HEADING INTO THURSDAY. WITH
CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY THINNING OUT OVERNIGHT AND WINDS DROPPING
OFF...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SEEMS REASONABLE...LOW 40S
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT BEFORE THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IMPACTS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS WAVE SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW AVERAGE...WITH READINGS
APPROACHING THE LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION WILL BE NEARING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...THIS WILL PRESENT A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
LOOK LIKELY WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...A WIND ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE A LIKELY BET ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A COLD RAIN WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT MOST
OF THE DAY BEFORE A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD BEGIN MIXING IN BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS ALL SNOW LATER IN THE EVENING AND
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH...IF
ANYTHING...IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AS THE GROUND SHOULD STILL
BE TOO WARM. AS OF RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS A TENTH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION MIGHT BE POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AREAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE
MICHIGAN THAT COULD SEE MAYBE HALF AN INCH...DEPENDENT UPON WHAT
KIND SNOWFALL RATES CAN GET GOING BEFORE THE GREATEST MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING.

BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD BEGIN PEEK THROUGH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE OUT IN
THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
VERY STRONG COLD FRONT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AND BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AFTER THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SO FOR THIS 06Z CYCLE...HAVE KEPT TAFS VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 292347
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
747 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO
RETURN...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE FORM OF SOME SNOWFALL. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING WINDY AND WET CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR HALLOWEEN AND
EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY
BRING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND HEADING INTO THURSDAY. WITH
CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY THINNING OUT OVERNIGHT AND WINDS DROPPING
OFF...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SEEMS REASONABLE...LOW 40S
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT BEFORE THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IMPACTS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS WAVE SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW AVERAGE...WITH READINGS
APPROACHING THE LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION WILL BE NEARING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...THIS WILL PRESENT A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
LOOK LIKELY WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...A WIND ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE A LIKELY BET ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A COLD RAIN WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT MOST
OF THE DAY BEFORE A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD BEGIN MIXING IN BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS ALL SNOW LATER IN THE EVENING AND
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH...IF
ANYTHING...IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AS THE GROUND SHOULD STILL
BE TOO WARM. AS OF RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS A TENTH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION MIGHT BE POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AREAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE
MICHIGAN THAT COULD SEE MAYBE HALF AN INCH...DEPENDENT UPON WHAT
KIND SNOWFALL RATES CAN GET GOING BEFORE THE GREATEST MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING.

BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD BEGIN PEEK THROUGH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE OUT IN
THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

MINOR CONCERN THAT LAKE ENHANCED STRATOCU FIELD TOO DENSE AND
STRENGTH OF 875MB BASED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS TOO STRONG
OVERNIGHT TO YIELD ANY SIGNIFICANT DISSIPATION...FOR MUCH/ALL OF
TONIGHT. REGARDLESS VFR MET CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. PERIOD OF EARLY AM CLEARING POSSIBLE...THOUGH NON
CRITICAL/DOESNT NECESSITATE ADDITIONAL BREAKOUT. MID/LATE MORNING
CU REGENERATION ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGH BASED ALTOCU ASSOCD
WITH UPSTREAM NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 292009
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
409 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY FOR TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN MAKE ITS WAY
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO
RETURN...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE FORM OF SOME SNOWFALL. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING WINDY AND WET CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR HALLOWEEN AND
EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY
BRING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND HEADING INTO THURSDAY. WITH CLOUD
COVER POSSIBLY THINNING OUT OVERNIGHT AND WINDS DROPPING OFF...LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SEEMS REASONABLE...LOW 40S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT BEFORE THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IMPACTS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
WAVE SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...HIGHS SHOULD BE
A BIT HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW AVERAGE...WITH
READINGS APPROACHING THE LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION WILL BE NEARING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THIS WILL
PRESENT A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS OF 20-30 MPH LOOK LIKELY WITH GUSTS OVER
40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE...A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WITH
FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE A LIKELY BET ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A COLD RAIN WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
DAY BEFORE A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD BEGIN MIXING IN BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS ALL SNOW LATER IN THE EVENING AND
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH...IF
ANYTHING...IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION AS THE GROUND SHOULD STILL BE
TOO WARM. AS OF RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS A TENTH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION MIGHT BE POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN THAT
COULD SEE MAYBE HALF AN INCH...DEPENDENT UPON WHAT KIND SNOWFALL
RATES CAN GET GOING BEFORE THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING.

BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD BEGIN PEEK THROUGH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE OUT IN THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET WILL DISSIPATE
BY 06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SITES. AFTER THAT SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY WILL FALL OFF SHARPLY THIS
EVENING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. AFTER THAT...EXPECT WINDS TO
BE TOO LIGHT TO AFFECT OPERATIONS. BECAUSE OF LOW DEWPOINTS...FOG IS
UNLIKELY TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEE
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 291707
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
107 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

COOL AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
TODAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER WITH ONLY
MAYBE A FEW TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL THEN DROP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR...GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND RENEWED CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THERE ALSO IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THIS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

PER RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS...BROUGHT IN THE THICKER CLOUDS
FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS COULD
IMPACT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE
HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF CAPTURING. HOWEVER...WITH HOURLY
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A TAD HIGHER THAN EXPECTED EARLIER THIS
MORNING...ONLY DROPPED HIGHS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN
BORDER BUT DID CHANGE WORDING FROM SPRINKLES TO RAIN SHOWERS AS A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PER
CURRENT RADAR RETURNS.

UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES ALREADY SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND LITTLE RECOVERY IN TEMPS. DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ADDED MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MI IN VEERED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW A BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO OVERSPREAD
MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. COULD
ALSO SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOP
DURING THIS TIME IN MAINLY OUR MICHIGAN COUNTIES AS LAKE-800 MB
TEMP DIFFERENTIALS PUSH THE MID-UPPER TEENS. DRY AIRMASS AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE/MIXING DEPTHS (LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
ONLY 5-7 KFT) SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE/PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN
(10-20%). OTHERWISE...WINDS MAY GUSTS AOA 20 KNOTS WITH SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
SUPPORT QUICK DECOUPLING AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE...
WITH LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 30S AND DEPENDENT ON STRATOCU TRENDS (LOW
CONFIDENCE).

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

STRONG SHRTWV EXPECTED TO DROP SE FROM SASK THU TO INDIANA FRI WHERE
IT WILL CLOSE OFF AND THEN CONT TO DIG SEWD TO THE NC COAST ON
SATURDAY. INITIAL IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL JUST BE INCRSG
CLOUDINESS THU WHICH WILL OFFSET WK LOW LEVEL WAA RESULTING IN HIGHS
ONLY IN THE L50S. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THU NGT
AS MOISTURE/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APCHG SHRTWV OVERSPREADS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW
CLOSES OFF OVER THE AREA. PRECIP AND CAA MAY ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO
COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN OVER THE AREA LATE FRI
AFTN. AIRMASS WILL CONT TO COOL FRI NGT SUPPORTING JUST SNOW...
HWVR DEEP MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE PULLING OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
SO NO ACCUM EXPECTED IN OUR AREA. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD IN
THIS TIMEFRAME WITH TIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT BEHIND THE
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW LEADING TO WINDY CONDITIONS ENHANCING THE
CHILL ACROSS OUR AREA FRI-FRI NGT.

FAIR WX WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV MOVG EAST IN
RENEWED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN U.S./SRN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS MONDAY NGT-TUE AS THE SHRTWV MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE GRTLKS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET WILL DISSIPATE
BY 06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SITES. AFTER THAT SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY WILL FALL OFF SHARPLY THIS
EVENING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. AFTER THAT...EXPECT WINDS TO
BE TOO LIGHT TO AFFECT OPERATIONS. BECAUSE OF LOW DEWPOINTS...FOG IS
UNLIKELY TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LEE
SYNOPSIS...LEE/STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 291545
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1145 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

COOL AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
TODAY AND THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER WITH ONLY
MAYBE A FEW TENTHS OF ACCUMULATION. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL THEN DROP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR...GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND RENEWED CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THERE ALSO IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THIS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

PER RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS...BROUGHT IN THE THICKER CLOUDS
FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS COULD
IMPACT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE
HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF CAPTURING. HOWEVER...WITH HOURLY
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A TAD HIGHER THAN EXPECTED EARLIER THIS
MORNING...ONLY DROPPED HIGHS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN
BORDER BUT DID CHANGE WORDING FROM SPRINKLES TO RAIN SHOWERS AS A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PER
CURRENT RADAR RETURNS.

UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES ALREADY SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND LITTLE RECOVERY IN TEMPS. DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ADDED MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MI IN VEERED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW A BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO OVERSPREAD
MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. COULD
ALSO SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOP
DURING THIS TIME IN MAINLY OUR MICHIGAN COUNTIES AS LAKE-800 MB
TEMP DIFFERENTIALS PUSH THE MID-UPPER TEENS. DRY AIRMASS AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE/MIXING DEPTHS (LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
ONLY 5-7 KFT) SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE/PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN
(10-20%). OTHERWISE...WINDS MAY GUSTS AOA 20 KNOTS WITH SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
SUPPORT QUICK DECOUPLING AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE...
WITH LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 30S AND DEPENDENT ON STRATOCU TRENDS (LOW
CONFIDENCE).

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

STRONG SHRTWV EXPECTED TO DROP SE FROM SASK THU TO INDIANA FRI WHERE
IT WILL CLOSE OFF AND THEN CONT TO DIG SEWD TO THE NC COAST ON
SATURDAY. INITIAL IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL JUST BE INCRSG
CLOUDINESS THU WHICH WILL OFFSET WK LOW LEVEL WAA RESULTING IN HIGHS
ONLY IN THE L50S. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THU NGT
AS MOISTURE/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APCHG SHRTWV OVERSPREADS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW
CLOSES OFF OVER THE AREA. PRECIP AND CAA MAY ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO
COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN OVER THE AREA LATE FRI
AFTN. AIRMASS WILL CONT TO COOL FRI NGT SUPPORTING JUST SNOW...
HWVR DEEP MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE PULLING OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
SO NO ACCUM EXPECTED IN OUR AREA. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD IN
THIS TIMEFRAME WITH TIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT BEHIND THE
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW LEADING TO WINDY CONDITIONS ENHANCING THE
CHILL ACROSS OUR AREA FRI-FRI NGT.

FAIR WX WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV MOVG EAST IN
RENEWED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN U.S./SRN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS MONDAY NGT-TUE AS THE SHRTWV MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE GRTLKS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 291500Z TAF UPDATE)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

COOL AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER
40S AND MID 50S. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...GUSTY NORTH WINDS...AND RENEWED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THERE ALSO IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LEE
SYNOPSIS...LEE/STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JK/STEINWEDEL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 291441
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1041 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

COOL AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER
40S AND MID 50S. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...GUSTY NORTH WINDS...AND RENEWED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THERE ALSO IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND LITTLE RECOVERY IN TEMPS. DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ADDED MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MI IN VEERED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW A BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO OVERSPREAD
MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. COULD
ALSO SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOP
DURING THIS TIME IN MAINLY OUR MICHIGAN COUNTIES AS LAKE-800 MB
TEMP DIFFERENTIALS PUSH THE MID-UPPER TEENS. DRY AIRMASS AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE/MIXING DEPTHS (LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
ONLY 5-7 KFT) SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE/PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN
(10-20%). OTHERWISE...WINDS MAY GUSTS AOA 20 KNOTS WITH SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
SUPPORT QUICK DECOUPLING AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE...
WITH LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 30S AND DEPENDENT ON STRATOCU TRENDS (LOW
CONFIDENCE).

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

STRONG SHRTWV EXPECTED TO DROP SE FROM SASK THU TO INDIANA FRI WHERE
IT WILL CLOSE OFF AND THEN CONT TO DIG SEWD TO THE NC COAST ON
SATURDAY. INITIAL IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL JUST BE INCRSG
CLOUDINESS THU WHICH WILL OFFSET WK LOW LEVEL WAA RESULTING IN HIGHS
ONLY IN THE L50S. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THU NGT
AS MOISTURE/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APCHG SHRTWV OVERSPREADS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW
CLOSES OFF OVER THE AREA. PRECIP AND CAA MAY ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO
COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN OVER THE AREA LATE FRI
AFTN. AIRMASS WILL CONT TO COOL FRI NGT SUPPORTING JUST SNOW...
HWVR DEEP MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE PULLING OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
SO NO ACCUM EXPECTED IN OUR AREA. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD IN
THIS TIMEFRAME WITH TIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT BEHIND THE
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW LEADING TO WINDY CONDITIONS ENHANCING THE
CHILL ACROSS OUR AREA FRI-FRI NGT.

FAIR WX WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV MOVG EAST IN
RENEWED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN U.S./SRN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS MONDAY NGT-TUE AS THE SHRTWV MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE GRTLKS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 291500Z TAF UPDATE)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

COOL AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER
40S AND MID 50S. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...GUSTY NORTH WINDS...AND RENEWED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THERE ALSO IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JK/STEINWEDEL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 291438
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1038 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

COOL AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER
40S AND MID 50S. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...GUSTY NORTH WINDS...AND RENEWED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THERE ALSO IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND LITTLE RECOVERY IN TEMPS. DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ADDED MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MI IN VEERED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW A BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO OVERSPREAD
MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. COULD
ALSO SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOP
DURING THIS TIME IN MAINLY OUR MICHIGAN COUNTIES AS LAKE-800 MB
TEMP DIFFERENTIALS PUSH THE MID-UPPER TEENS. DRY AIRMASS AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE/MIXING DEPTHS (LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
ONLY 5-7 KFT) SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE/PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN
(10-20%). OTHERWISE...WINDS MAY GUSTS AOA 20 KNOTS WITH SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
SUPPORT QUICK DECOUPLING AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE...
WITH LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 30S AND DEPENDENT ON STRATOCU TRENDS (LOW
CONFIDENCE).

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

STRONG SHRTWV EXPECTED TO DROP SE FROM SASK THU TO INDIANA FRI WHERE
IT WILL CLOSE OFF AND THEN CONT TO DIG SEWD TO THE NC COAST ON
SATURDAY. INITIAL IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL JUST BE INCRSG
CLOUDINESS THU WHICH WILL OFFSET WK LOW LEVEL WAA RESULTING IN HIGHS
ONLY IN THE L50S. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THU NGT
AS MOISTURE/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APCHG SHRTWV OVERSPREADS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW
CLOSES OFF OVER THE AREA. PRECIP AND CAA MAY ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO
COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN OVER THE AREA LATE FRI
AFTN. AIRMASS WILL CONT TO COOL FRI NGT SUPPORTING JUST SNOW...
HWVR DEEP MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE PULLING OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
SO NO ACCUM EXPECTED IN OUR AREA. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD IN
THIS TIMEFRAME WITH TIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT BEHIND THE
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW LEADING TO WINDY CONDITIONS ENHANCING THE
CHILL ACROSS OUR AREA FRI-FRI NGT.

FAIR WX WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV MOVG EAST IN
RENEWED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN U.S./SRN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS MONDAY NGT-TUE AS THE SHRTWV MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE GRTLKS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 291500Z TAF UPDATE)
ISSUED AT 1031 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A BKN-OVC STRATOCU DECK IN HIGH END MVFR TO LOW VFR RANGE WILL COVER
NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON IN A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/COLD ADVECTION...WITH SHALLOW MIXING DEPTHS LIKELY HOLDING
GUSTS AOB 20 KTS. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RIDGING BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST WILL THEN SUPPORT A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JK/STEINWEDEL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 291429
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1029 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

COOL AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER
40S AND MID 50S. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...GUSTY NORTH WINDS...AND RENEWED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THERE ALSO IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND LITTLE RECOVERY IN TEMPS. DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ADDED MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MI IN VEERED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW A BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO OVERSPREAD
MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. COULD
ALSO SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOP
DURING THIS TIME IN MAINLY OUR MICHIGAN COUNTIES AS LAKE-800 MB
TEMP DIFFERENTIALS PUSH THE MID-UPPER TEENS. DRY AIRMASS AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE/MIXING DEPTHS (LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
ONLY 5-7 KFT) SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE/PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN
(10-20%). OTHERWISE...WINDS MAY GUSTS AOA 20 KNOTS WITH SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
SUPPORT QUICK DECOUPLING AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE...
WITH LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 30S AND DEPENDENT ON STRATOCU TRENDS (LOW
CONFIDENCE).

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

STRONG SHRTWV EXPECTED TO DROP SE FROM SASK THU TO INDIANA FRI WHERE
IT WILL CLOSE OFF AND THEN CONT TO DIG SEWD TO THE NC COAST ON
SATURDAY. INITIAL IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL JUST BE INCRSG
CLOUDINESS THU WHICH WILL OFFSET WK LOW LEVEL WAA RESULTING IN HIGHS
ONLY IN THE L50S. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THU NGT
AS MOISTURE/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APCHG SHRTWV OVERSPREADS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW
CLOSES OFF OVER THE AREA. PRECIP AND CAA MAY ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO
COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN OVER THE AREA LATE FRI
AFTN. AIRMASS WILL CONT TO COOL FRI NGT SUPPORTING JUST SNOW...
HWVR DEEP MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE PULLING OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
SO NO ACCUM EXPECTED IN OUR AREA. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD IN
THIS TIMEFRAME WITH TIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT BEHIND THE
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW LEADING TO WINDY CONDITIONS ENHANCING THE
CHILL ACROSS OUR AREA FRI-FRI NGT.

FAIR WX WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV MOVG EAST IN
RENEWED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN U.S./SRN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS MONDAY NGT-TUE AS THE SHRTWV MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE GRTLKS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 291500Z TAF UPDATE)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A BKN-OVC STRATOCU DECK IN HIGH END MVFR TO LOW VFR RANGE WILL COVER
NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON IN A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/COLD ADVECTION...WITH SHALLOW MIXING DEPTHS LIKELY HOLDING
GUSTS AOB 20 KTS. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RIDGING BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST WILL THEN SUPPORT A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JK/STEINWEDEL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 291001
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
601 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

COOL AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER
40S AND MID 50S. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...GUSTY NORTH WINDS...AND RENEWED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THERE ALSO IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND LITTLE RECOVERY IN TEMPS. DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ADDED MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MI IN VEERED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW A BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO OVERSPREAD
MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. COULD
ALSO SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOP
DURING THIS TIME IN MAINLY OUR MICHIGAN COUNTIES AS LAKE-800 MB
TEMP DIFFERENTIALS PUSH THE MID-UPPER TEENS. DRY AIRMASS AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE/MIXING DEPTHS (LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
ONLY 5-7 KFT) SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE/PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN
(10-20%). OTHERWISE...WINDS MAY GUSTS AOA 20 KNOTS WITH SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
SUPPORT QUICK DECOUPLING AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE...
WITH LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 30S AND DEPENDENT ON STRATOCU TRENDS (LOW
CONFIDENCE).

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

STRONG SHRTWV EXPECTED TO DROP SE FROM SASK THU TO INDIANA FRI WHERE
IT WILL CLOSE OFF AND THEN CONT TO DIG SEWD TO THE NC COAST ON
SATURDAY. INITIAL IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL JUST BE INCRSG
CLOUDINESS THU WHICH WILL OFFSET WK LOW LEVEL WAA RESULTING IN HIGHS
ONLY IN THE L50S. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THU NGT
AS MOISTURE/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APCHG SHRTWV OVERSPREADS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW
CLOSES OFF OVER THE AREA. PRECIP AND CAA MAY ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO
COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN OVER THE AREA LATE FRI
AFTN. AIRMASS WILL CONT TO COOL FRI NGT SUPPORTING JUST SNOW...
HWVR DEEP MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE PULLING OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
SO NO ACCUM EXPECTED IN OUR AREA. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD IN
THIS TIMEFRAME WITH TIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT BEHIND THE
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW LEADING TO WINDY CONDITIONS ENHANCING THE
CHILL ACROSS OUR AREA FRI-FRI NGT.

FAIR WX WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV MOVG EAST IN
RENEWED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN U.S./SRN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS MONDAY NGT-TUE AS THE SHRTWV MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE GRTLKS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A BKN-OVC STRATOCU DECK IN HIGH END MVFR TO LOW VFR RANGE WILL
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH
AXIS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT WITH DAYTIME HEATING/COLD
ADVECTION...WITH SHALLOW MIXING DEPTHS LIKELY HOLDING GUSTS AOB 20
KTS. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL THEN SUPPORT A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 290745
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
345 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

COOL AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER
40S AND MID 50S. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...GUSTY NORTH WINDS...AND RENEWED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THERE ALSO IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND LITTLE RECOVERY IN TEMPS. DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ADDED MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MI IN VEERED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW A BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO OVERSPREAD
MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. COULD
ALSO SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOP
DURING THIS TIME IN MAINLY OUR MICHIGAN COUNTIES AS LAKE-800 MB
TEMP DIFFERENTIALS PUSH THE MID-UPPER TEENS. DRY AIRMASS AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE/MIXING DEPTHS (LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
ONLY 5-7 KFT) SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE/PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN
(10-20%). OTHERWISE...WINDS MAY GUSTS AOA 20 KNOTS WITH SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
SUPPORT QUICK DECOUPLING AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE...
WITH LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 30S AND DEPENDENT ON STRATOCU TRENDS (LOW
CONFIDENCE).

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

STRONG SHRTWV EXPECTED TO DROP SE FROM SASK THU TO INDIANA FRI WHERE
IT WILL CLOSE OFF AND THEN CONT TO DIG SEWD TO THE NC COAST ON
SATURDAY. INITIAL IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL JUST BE INCRSG
CLOUDINESS THU WHICH WILL OFFSET WK LOW LEVEL WAA RESULTING IN HIGHS
ONLY IN THE L50S. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THU NGT
AS MOISTURE/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APCHG SHRTWV OVERSPREADS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW
CLOSES OFF OVER THE AREA. PRECIP AND CAA MAY ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO
COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN OVER THE AREA LATE FRI
AFTN. AIRMASS WILL CONT TO COOL FRI NGT SUPPORTING JUST SNOW...
HWVR DEEP MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE PULLING OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
SO NO ACCUM EXPECTED IN OUR AREA. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD IN
THIS TIMEFRAME WITH TIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT BEHIND THE
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW LEADING TO WINDY CONDITIONS ENHANCING THE
CHILL ACROSS OUR AREA FRI-FRI NGT.

FAIR WX WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV MOVG EAST IN
RENEWED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN U.S./SRN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS MONDAY NGT-TUE AS THE SHRTWV MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE GRTLKS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A BKN-OVC STRATOCU DECK IN HIGH END MVFR TO LOW VFR RANGE SHOULD
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN INDIANA LATER THIS MORNING BEHIND A SECONDARY
TROUGH AXIS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/COLD ADVECTION WITH SHALLOW MIXING DEPTHS LIKELY HOLDING
GUSTS AOB 20 KTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 290456
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1256 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

COOL AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER
40S AND MID 50S. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...GUSTY NORTH WINDS...AND RENEWED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THERE ALSO IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

COLD FRONT HAS EXITED NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WITH POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. INITIAL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH ONLY A GLANCING BLOW OF STRONGER
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
STRATOCU HAS FILLED IN SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SCT-
BKN LOW CLOUDS MAY SHIFT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT BEGINNING TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD
TEND TO SEE THESE LOW CLOUDS DIMINISH AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
BY LATE TONIGHT...SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL ROUND LARGE SCALE
UPPER CIRCULATION...PROVIDING REINFORCING LOW/MID LEVEL CAA.
PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH LATE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW A MORE
SOLID STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF. HOWEVER...THE
MAGNITUDE OF AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS
FROM UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND PERHAPS LOWER TO MID 40S IN
VICINITY OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

A QUIET DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH AFOREMENTIONED
SECONDARY TROUGH THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST AS IT SWINGS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAINTENANCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT BROKEN-OVERCAST STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE
NORTH...ESPECIALLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SHALLOW...BUT COULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH
WEAK BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC FORCING. IF SOLID LOW CLOUD DECK DOES
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50
AND NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. GOOD LOW
LEVEL MIXING WILL SUPPORT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SLACKENING GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
RESULT IN RAPID DECOUPLING TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS TO START THE PERIOD OFF WITH WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SET TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PERSISTENT NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY WARM (MID 50S THURSDAY).
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS APPROACH OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WHICH WAS OVER WESTERN CANADA (PARTIALLY MADE UP OF REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL SYSTEM ANA). A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS BUT MORE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. ECMWF/GEM ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE/DEEP WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW TRACKING IT FROM WEST OF
HUDSON BAY WEDNESDAY EVENING WEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR (STILL AN OPEN
WAVE) TO VICINITY OF SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF
SUGGESTS TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD LEND MORE CREDENCE TO
INTRODUCING MENTION OF SNOW IN NE AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
CRITICAL WITH READINGS AROUND 40 OR LOWER 40S EARLY. DO EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT DEEPEST MOISTURE QUICKLY DEPARTS
AT THE SAME TIME. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY IN NE AREAS GIVEN
LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES.

MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS FEATURES SLOWING DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
LOW WRAPS UP AND DEEPENS FURTHER. THUS AN INTRODUCTION IN POPS IN
EASTERN AREAS IS WARRANTED (CHC). IN TERMS OF LAKE EFFECT...FLOW
WILL QUICKLY BECOME NORTH OR NNW WHICH WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA INTO WESTERN PARTS OF LAPORTE
STARKE AND PULASKI COUNTIES. GIVEN TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
30S...HAVE WENT ALL SNOW FRI NGT.

MUCH LIKE THE LAST SYSTEM THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A A STRONG NE FLOW ACROSS
MAINLY EASTERN AREAS TO POSSIBLY MAKE FOR A BLUSTERY DAY SATURDAY.
ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH WEAKER WAVE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND RAPIDLY
DEEPEN AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FRI AND SAT NGT BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
LOCATIONS AND HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S SATURDAY. SOME
MODERATION BEGINS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH DEPARTS.
ANOTHER DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TAKE SHAPE...BUT THIS TIME MUCH
FURTHER NORTH IN SOUTHERN CANADA. A FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN INTO THE
AREA WITH SOME RETURN IN MOISTURE EXPECTED. SUPERBLEND OF GUIDANCE
WANTS TO PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THIS PERIOD BUT WITH AREA SO REMOVED
FROM MAIN DYNAMICS THIS IS TOO PREMATURE AT THIS POINT TO GO THAT
HIGH. HAVE WENT CHC POPS MON NGT INTO TUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A BKN-OVC STRATOCU DECK IN HIGH END MVFR TO LOW VFR RANGE SHOULD
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN INDIANA LATER THIS MORNING BEHIND A SECONDARY
TROUGH AXIS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/COLD ADVECTION WITH SHALLOW MIXING DEPTHS LIKELY HOLDING
GUSTS AOB 20 KTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 290003
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
803 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

COOL AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK...
WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

COLD FRONT HAS EXITED NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WITH POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. INITIAL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH ONLY A GLANCING BLOW OF STRONGER
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
STRATOCU HAS FILLED IN SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SCT-
BKN LOW CLOUDS MAY SHIFT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT BEGINNING TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD
TEND TO SEE THESE LOW CLOUDS DIMINISH AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
BY LATE TONIGHT...SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL ROUND LARGE SCALE
UPPER CIRCULATION...PROVIDING REINFORCING LOW/MID LEVEL CAA.
PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH LATE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW A MORE
SOLID STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF. HOWEVER...THE
MAGNITUDE OF AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS
FROM UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND PERHAPS LOWER TO MID 40S IN
VICINITY OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

A QUIET DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH AFOREMENTIONED
SECONDARY TROUGH THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST AS IT SWINGS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAINTENANCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT BROKEN-OVERCAST STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE
NORTH...ESPECIALLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SHALLOW...BUT COULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH
WEAK BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC FORCING. IF SOLID LOW CLOUD DECK DOES
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50
AND NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. GOOD LOW
LEVEL MIXING WILL SUPPORT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SLACKENING GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
RESULT IN RAPID DECOUPLING TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS TO START THE PERIOD OFF WITH WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SET TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PERSISTENT NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY WARM (MID 50S THURSDAY).
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS APPROACH OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WHICH WAS OVER WESTERN CANADA (PARTIALLY MADE UP OF REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL SYSTEM ANA). A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS BUT MORE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. ECMWF/GEM ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE/DEEP WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW TRACKING IT FROM WEST OF
HUDSON BAY WEDNESDAY EVENING WEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR (STILL AN OPEN
WAVE) TO VICINITY OF SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF
SUGGESTS TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD LEND MORE CREDENCE TO
INTRODUCING MENTION OF SNOW IN NE AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
CRITICAL WITH READINGS AROUND 40 OR LOWER 40S EARLY. DO EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT DEEPEST MOISTURE QUICKLY DEPARTS
AT THE SAME TIME. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY IN NE AREAS GIVEN
LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES.

MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS FEATURES SLOWING DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
LOW WRAPS UP AND DEEPENS FURTHER. THUS AN INTRODUCTION IN POPS IN
EASTERN AREAS IS WARRANTED (CHC). IN TERMS OF LAKE EFFECT...FLOW
WILL QUICKLY BECOME NORTH OR NNW WHICH WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA INTO WESTERN PARTS OF LAPORTE
STARKE AND PULASKI COUNTIES. GIVEN TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
30S...HAVE WENT ALL SNOW FRI NGT.

MUCH LIKE THE LAST SYSTEM THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A A STRONG NE FLOW ACROSS
MAINLY EASTERN AREAS TO POSSIBLY MAKE FOR A BLUSTERY DAY SATURDAY.
ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH WEAKER WAVE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND RAPIDLY
DEEPEN AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FRI AND SAT NGT BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
LOCATIONS AND HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S SATURDAY. SOME
MODERATION BEGINS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH DEPARTS.
ANOTHER DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TAKE SHAPE...BUT THIS TIME MUCH
FURTHER NORTH IN SOUTHERN CANADA. A FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN INTO THE
AREA WITH SOME RETURN IN MOISTURE EXPECTED. SUPERBLEND OF GUIDANCE
WANTS TO PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THIS PERIOD BUT WITH AREA SO REMOVED
FROM MAIN DYNAMICS THIS IS TOO PREMATURE AT THIS POINT TO GO THAT
HIGH. HAVE WENT CHC POPS MON NGT INTO TUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS NWRN GREAT LAKES /YOOP INTO NRN MN/ TO
ROTATE THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES WED AM AS PRIMARY VORTEX LIFTS
OUT INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. SECONDARY LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
PUSH WED AM...ALONG WITH CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL 925-850MB LAYER
FLOW...APPEARS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HIGH END MVFR BKN
STRATOCU DECK ACROSS NRN IN...IN LINE WITH LATEST 4KM NAM BUFKIT
PROFILES. IRREGARDLESS...CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT DETERIORATE BELOW
FUELING/ALTERNATE LEVELS AND SHALLOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOULD
KEEP DAYTIME GUSTS GENERALLY AOB 20KTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 281954
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
354 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. COOL AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...TO THE MID 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

COLD FRONT HAS EXITED NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WITH POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. INITIAL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH ONLY A GLANCING BLOW OF STRONGER
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
STRATOCU HAS FILLED IN SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SCT-
BKN LOW CLOUDS MAY SHIFT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH COLD POOL ALOFT BEGINNING TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD
TEND TO SEE THESE LOW CLOUDS DIMINISH AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
BY LATE TONIGHT...SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL ROUND LARGE SCALE
UPPER CIRCULATION...PROVIDING REINFORCING LOW/MID LEVEL CAA.
PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH LATE TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW A MORE
SOLID STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF. HOWEVER...THE
MAGNITUDE OF AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS
FROM UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND PERHAPS LOWER TO MID 40S IN
VICINITY OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

A QUIET DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH AFOREMENTIONED
SECONDARY TROUGH THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST AS IT SWINGS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAINTENANCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW/STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT BROKEN-OVERCAST STRATOCU DECK ACROSS THE
NORTH...ESPECIALLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SHALLOW...BUT COULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH
WEAK BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC FORCING. IF SOLID LOW CLOUD DECK DOES
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTH...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50
AND NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. GOOD LOW
LEVEL MIXING WILL SUPPORT GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SLACKENING GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
RESULT IN RAPID DECOUPLING TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS TO START THE PERIOD OFF WITH WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SET TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PERSISTENT NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY WARM (MID 50S THURSDAY).
MAIN FOCUS REMAINS APPROACH OF STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WHICH WAS OVER WESTERN CANADA (PARTIALLY MADE UP OF REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL SYSTEM ANA). A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS BUT MORE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. ECMWF/GEM ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE/DEEP WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW TRACKING IT FROM WEST OF
HUDSON BAY WEDNESDAY EVENING WEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR (STILL AN OPEN
WAVE) TO VICINITY OF SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF
SUGGESTS TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD LEND MORE CREDENCE TO
INTRODUCING MENTION OF SNOW IN NE AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
CRITICAL WITH READINGS AROUND 40 OR LOWER 40S EARLY. DO EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT DEEPEST MOISTURE QUICKLY DEPARTS
AT THE SAME TIME. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY IN NE AREAS GIVEN
LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES.

MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS FEATURES SLOWING DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
LOW WRAPS UP AND DEEPENS FURTHER. THUS AN INTRODUCTION IN POPS IN
EASTERN AREAS IS WARRANTED (CHC). IN TERMS OF LAKE EFFECT...FLOW
WILL QUICKLY BECOME NORTH OR NNW WHICH WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA INTO WESTERN PARTS OF LAPORTE
STARKE AND PULASKI COUNTIES. GIVEN TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
30S...HAVE WENT ALL SNOW FRI NGT.

MUCH LIKE THE LAST SYSTEM THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A A STRONG NE FLOW ACROSS
MAINLY EASTERN AREAS TO POSSIBLY MAKE FOR A BLUSTERY DAY SATURDAY.
ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH WEAKER WAVE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND RAPIDLY
DEEPEN AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FRI AND SAT NGT BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
LOCATIONS AND HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S SATURDAY. SOME
MODERATION BEGINS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH DEPARTS.
ANOTHER DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TAKE SHAPE...BUT THIS TIME MUCH
FURTHER NORTH IN SOUTHERN CANADA. A FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN INTO THE
AREA WITH SOME RETURN IN MOISTURE EXPECTED. SUPERBLEND OF GUIDANCE
WANTS TO PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THIS PERIOD BUT WITH AREA SO REMOVED
FROM MAIN DYNAMICS THIS IS TOO PREMATURE AT THIS POINT TO GO THAT
HIGH. HAVE WENT CHC POPS MON NGT INTO TUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROGRESSING ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO WILL BE
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS EAST OF THE TERMINALS TO BEGIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. A DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE AREA AND INCREASING
SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL LOW/MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTION THIS EVENING
WITH EXPECTATION THAT STRATOCU WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN INDIANA. GREATER CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR CIGS IS NORTH OF KSBN...SO HAVE KEPT CIGS IN THE 3-4K FT
LEVEL TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH TO BECOME FULLY ENTRENCHED
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE AT SOME 2-3K FT CIGS AT
KSBN. WESTERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL SETTLE AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING. DECENT
MIXING BUT SLACKENING GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT WESTERLY GUSTS BACK
INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 281747
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
147 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

RAIN SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S BY THIS
EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FRONTALLY FORCED SHOWERS HAVE QUICKLY SHIFTED ACROSS EASTERN THIRD
OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUES TO
PUSH ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS DRY SLOT WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON EFFECTIVELY
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN COUNTIES THROUGH AROUND 2 PM...ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...AND WHERE DPVA IS MAXIMIZED WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. ONSET OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
ACROSS THE WEST RESULTED IN FALLING SFC TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECTING TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF AND THEN PERHAPS RISE A
FEW DEGREES DUE TO GREATER INSOLATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND A
DEEPENING MIXED LAYER. WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CLOSED UPPER LOW/DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE ADVANCING ENE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE (PWATS
EXCEEDING AN INCH) AND DEEPER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS PV ANOMALY AND CONSOLIDATING 110-120 KT UPPER JET ROUNDING
BASE OF TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES. ALSO CANNOT RULE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SEEN IN
00Z AREA RAOBS AND UPSTREAM TRENDS.

QUICK CLEARING/DRYING ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AS PRONOUNCED MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT/SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS. TEMP TRENDS SOMEWHAT TRICKY
GIVEN TREND TOWARD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DEEPER MIXING WITHIN
POST-FRONTAL CAA WEDGE. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER LAV TRENDS FOR NOW
WITH TEMPS LIKELY LEVELING OUT/DROPPING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. OTHERWISE...FLOW OF COLD ADVECTION PERSIST
INTO TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRATOCUMULUS TO FILL IN ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

POTENT SW TROUGH (REMNANTS OF TC ANA) JUST WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND
WILL RAPIDLY PHASE W/STG SW DIGGING SWD THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS THIS
MORNING AND YIELD A RATHER DRAMATIC HGT AMPLIFICATION EVENT ACRS NOAM
THIS PD. SW OF NOTE TO AMPLIFY SEWD EARLY PD SEEN UP NR GREAT BEAR
LAKE NWT AND WILL BRING W/IT A SIG CHUNK OF COLD AIR.

TO START...SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THROUGH
THU AS LL POST FNTL THERMAL TROUGH MODIFIES A BIT W/NR NORMAL TEMPS
XPCD. NWT WAVE FOLLOWS ON FRI THROUGH THE WRN LAKES PER WELL ALIGNED
00Z CONSENSUS AND FITTING W/UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION ALG COAST OF WRN
CANADA. PRIOR FCST WELL IN HAND ALTHOUGH A FEW TWEAKS MADE...MOST
NOTABLE WAS TO MAKE AN APPRECIABLE POP BUMP FRI IN ANTICIPATION OF A
PD OF LK ENHANCEMENT AS DECENT SYNOPTIC MSTR PLUME WRAPS UP WITHIN
RAPIDLY DEEPENING H7-5 LOW CNTR. OTRWS LL THERMAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO BREAKDOWN LT SAT AS UPR TROUGH SWINGS OUT INTO THE MID ATL AND
SIG HGT RISES PROGRESS EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS AS PIECE OF NEPAC
ENERGY DIGS THROUGH THE SWRN US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROGRESSING ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO WILL BE
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS EAST OF THE TERMINALS TO BEGIN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. A DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE AREA AND INCREASING
SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL LOW/MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTION THIS EVENING
WITH EXPECTATION THAT STRATOCU WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHERN INDIANA. GREATER CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR CIGS IS NORTH OF KSBN...SO HAVE KEPT CIGS IN THE 3-4K FT
LEVEL TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH TO BECOME FULLY ENTRENCHED
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE AT SOME 2-3K FT CIGS AT
KSBN. WESTERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL SETTLE AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING. DECENT
MIXING BUT SLACKENING GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT WESTERLY GUSTS BACK
INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 281538
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1138 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

RAIN SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER AND DRYER CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S BY THIS
EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FRONTALLY FORCED SHOWERS HAVE QUICKLY SHIFTED ACROSS EASTERN THIRD
OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CONTINUES TO
PUSH ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS DRY SLOT WILL
OVERSPEAD THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON EFFECTIVELY
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN COUNTIES THROUGH AROUND 2 PM...ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...AND WHERE DPVA IS MAXIMIZED WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. ONSET OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
ACROSS THE WEST RESULTED IN FALLING SFC TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECTING TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF AND THEN PERHAPS RISE A
FEW DEGREES DUE TO GREATER INSOLATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND A
DEEPENING MIXED LAYER. WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CLOSED UPPER LOW/DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE ADVANCING ENE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE (PWATS
EXCEEDING AN INCH) AND DEEPER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS PV ANOMALY AND CONSOLIDATING 110-120 KT UPPER JET ROUNDING
BASE OF TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES. ALSO CANNOT RULE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SEEN IN
00Z AREA RAOBS AND UPSTREAM TRENDS.

QUICK CLEARING/DRYING ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AS PRONOUNCED MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT/SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS. TEMP TRENDS SOMEWHAT TRICKY
GIVEN TREND TOWARD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DEEPER MIXING WITHIN
POST-FRONTAL CAA WEDGE. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER LAV TRENDS FOR NOW
WITH TEMPS LIKELY LEVELING OUT/DROPPING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. OTHERWISE...FLOW OF COLD ADVECTION PERSIST
INTO TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRATOCUMULUS TO FILL IN ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

POTENT SW TROUGH (REMNANTS OF TC ANA) JUST WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND
WILL RAPIDLY PHASE W/STG SW DIGGING SWD THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS THIS
MORNING AND YIELD A RATHER DRAMATIC HGT AMPLIFICATION EVENT ACRS NOAM
THIS PD. SW OF NOTE TO AMPLIFY SEWD EARLY PD SEEN UP NR GREAT BEAR
LAKE NWT AND WILL BRING W/IT A SIG CHUNK OF COLD AIR.

TO START...SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THROUGH
THU AS LL POST FNTL THERMAL TROUGH MODIFIES A BIT W/NR NORMAL TEMPS
XPCD. NWT WAVE FOLLOWS ON FRI THROUGH THE WRN LAKES PER WELL ALIGNED
00Z CONSENSUS AND FITTING W/UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION ALG COAST OF WRN
CANADA. PRIOR FCST WELL IN HAND ALTHOUGH A FEW TWEAKS MADE...MOST
NOTABLE WAS TO MAKE AN APPRECIABLE POP BUMP FRI IN ANTICIPATION OF A
PD OF LK ENHANCEMENT AS DECENT SYNOPTIC MSTR PLUME WRAPS UP WITHIN
RAPIDLY DEEPENING H7-5 LOW CNTR. OTRWS LL THERMAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO BREAKDOWN LT SAT AS UPR TROUGH SWINGS OUT INTO THE MID ATL AND
SIG HGT RISES PROGRESS EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS AS PIECE OF NEPAC
ENERGY DIGS THROUGH THE SWRN US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

LINE OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD
CLEAR KSBN SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE AND KFWA BY LATE MORNING.
A SOMEWHAT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE/RAIN...ESPECIALLY AT FWA. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY IN
WAKE OF FRONT LATER THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE/DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY AND FRONT AND
GUST TO 25 KTS IN DEEPENING CAA WEDGE THIS AFTN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 281535
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1135 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

RAIN SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER AND DRYER CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S BY THIS
EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CLOSED UPPER LOW/DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE ADVANCING ENE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE (PWATS
EXCEEDING AN INCH) AND DEEPER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A CENTRAL
PLAINS PV ANOMALY AND CONSOLIDATING 110-120 KT UPPER JET ROUNDING
BASE OF TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES. ALSO CANNOT RULE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SEEN IN
00Z AREA RAOBS AND UPSTREAM TRENDS.

QUICK CLEARING/DRYING ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AS PRONOUNCED MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT/SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS. TEMP TRENDS SOMEWHAT TRICKY
GIVEN TREND TOWARD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DEEPER MIXING WITHIN
POST-FRONTAL CAA WEDGE. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER LAV TRENDS FOR NOW
WITH TEMPS LIKELY LEVELING OUT/DROPPING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. OTHERWISE...FLOW OF COLD ADVECTION PERSIST
INTO TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRATOCUMULUS TO FILL IN ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

POTENT SW TROUGH (REMNANTS OF TC ANA) JUST WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND
WILL RAPIDLY PHASE W/STG SW DIGGING SWD THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS THIS
MORNING AND YIELD A RATHER DRAMATIC HGT AMPLIFICATION EVENT ACRS NOAM
THIS PD. SW OF NOTE TO AMPLIFY SEWD EARLY PD SEEN UP NR GREAT BEAR
LAKE NWT AND WILL BRING W/IT A SIG CHUNK OF COLD AIR.

TO START...SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY THROUGH
THU AS LL POST FNTL THERMAL TROUGH MODIFIES A BIT W/NR NORMAL TEMPS
XPCD. NWT WAVE FOLLOWS ON FRI THROUGH THE WRN LAKES PER WELL ALIGNED
00Z CONSENSUS AND FITTING W/UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION ALG COAST OF WRN
CANADA. PRIOR FCST WELL IN HAND ALTHOUGH A FEW TWEAKS MADE...MOST
NOTABLE WAS TO MAKE AN APPRECIABLE POP BUMP FRI IN ANTICIPATION OF A
PD OF LK ENHANCEMENT AS DECENT SYNOPTIC MSTR PLUME WRAPS UP WITHIN
RAPIDLY DEEPENING H7-5 LOW CNTR. OTRWS LL THERMAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO BREAKDOWN LT SAT AS UPR TROUGH SWINGS OUT INTO THE MID ATL AND
SIG HGT RISES PROGRESS EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS AS PIECE OF NEPAC
ENERGY DIGS THROUGH THE SWRN US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

LINE OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD
CLEAR KSBN SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE AND KFWA BY LATE MORNING.
A SOMEWHAT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE/RAIN...ESPECIALLY AT FWA. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY IN
WAKE OF FRONT LATER THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE/DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY AND FRONT AND
GUST TO 25 KTS IN DEEPENING CAA WEDGE THIS AFTN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








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