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000
FXUS63 KIWX 222346
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
646 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S... WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE N-NE PORTION OF CWA EARLY THIS
EVE AS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WK
SHRTWV WAS MOVG THROUGH FAR NRN INDIANA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
SRN MI ATTM. BEYOND THIS... EXPECT A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN IN THE PRE-DWAN HOURS AS
ANOTHER WK SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH. HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FCST AND WERE ADJUSTED UP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NO CHANGES TO LOWS ATTM... THOUGH CONCERNED WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTG OVERNIGHT... THAT GOING LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO
COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD AIR WAS OVERRIDING THE
COOLER AIR. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PER 12 KM NAM. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ICE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WRT ONGOING FORECAST. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/PLUME ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
FROM ARKLATEX 12 UTC SUN TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN EVE. 8 G/KG
1000-850 MB LAYER A BIT FARTHER NWD...NOW LAPPING AT SRN CWA SUN
NIGHT WITH PIVOT POINT OVR SERN CWA INADVOF SFC BNDRY MON AM. DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FORTIFIED BY INTENSE 150-200M/12 HR HFC LIFTING NWD
THROUGH CWA SUN NIGHT EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH AREA OF ENHANCED QPF
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA. ALSO GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF SFC FNT AND AVAILABLE MSTR HAVE RAMPED POPS SOMEWHAT INTO MON AM
AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN DY3 AFTN POPS AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
INTO CWA FM SW. EXTREME 25MB/3 HR CROSS FRONTAL FALL/RISE COUPLET
ALONG WITH QUICKLY RAMPING WRLY 60-70 KT 925 GEO FLOW PORTENDS TO
NEEDING HIR GUSTS ESPCLY ALONG LAKESHORE WITH GALE WATCH NEEDED FOR
NSH WATERS...HOLDING GUST BLO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM FOR
BERRIEN/LAPORTE. WHILE SFC FNTL TIMING CONSENSUS NUDGES A BIT
QUICKER...MAINTAINED PRIOR PTYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING GIVEN NEGATIVE
ICE INTRODUCTION WITH DRY SLOT...AND DEEPENING OF COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER STILL APPROPRIATELY LAGGED.
THEREAFTER...MODEST LES RESPONSE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING
NEWD TO CANADIAN WITH BEST FOCUS TUE...WANING INTO TUE NIGHT. LES
PARAMETERS CONT TO PRESENT RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH LK/8H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS...UNIMPRESSIVE SUPERSATURATION
AND DEPTH/COHESION OF DGZ...TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. MODELS DIVERGE
ON MAINTENANCE OF VIGORED SHORTWAVE PER WV IMAGERY NEAR
50N/140W...FAVOR EMCWF WITH MORE RECOGNIZABLE CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
WRN GRTLKS FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WED AFTN/NIGHT. AGAIN MINOR LES
INTO THU WITH PRIMARY FOCUS LEANING TO COASTAL CYCLONGENESIS OFF ERN
COAST OF FLA AS LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS OVR CNTL CONUS...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

GULF MOISTURE FLOWING N-NE AROUND STRONG SFC HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE NC
COAST WAS RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM EAST TX N-NE TO
WI-MI... INCLUDING AT KSBN. SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH WK SHRTWV MOVG
THROUGH THE AREA ATTM SHOULD MAINLY BE EAST OF KSBN AND REMAIN
NORTH OF KFWA THIS EVE. FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT WK SHRTWV
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHORT PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APCHG STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV/SFC WARM FRONT
OVERSPREADS NRN INDIANA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
UPDATE...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 222346
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
646 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S... WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE N-NE PORTION OF CWA EARLY THIS
EVE AS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WK
SHRTWV WAS MOVG THROUGH FAR NRN INDIANA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
SRN MI ATTM. BEYOND THIS... EXPECT A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN IN THE PRE-DWAN HOURS AS
ANOTHER WK SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH. HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FCST AND WERE ADJUSTED UP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NO CHANGES TO LOWS ATTM... THOUGH CONCERNED WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTG OVERNIGHT... THAT GOING LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO
COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD AIR WAS OVERRIDING THE
COOLER AIR. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PER 12 KM NAM. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ICE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WRT ONGOING FORECAST. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/PLUME ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
FROM ARKLATEX 12 UTC SUN TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN EVE. 8 G/KG
1000-850 MB LAYER A BIT FARTHER NWD...NOW LAPPING AT SRN CWA SUN
NIGHT WITH PIVOT POINT OVR SERN CWA INADVOF SFC BNDRY MON AM. DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FORTIFIED BY INTENSE 150-200M/12 HR HFC LIFTING NWD
THROUGH CWA SUN NIGHT EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH AREA OF ENHANCED QPF
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA. ALSO GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF SFC FNT AND AVAILABLE MSTR HAVE RAMPED POPS SOMEWHAT INTO MON AM
AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN DY3 AFTN POPS AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
INTO CWA FM SW. EXTREME 25MB/3 HR CROSS FRONTAL FALL/RISE COUPLET
ALONG WITH QUICKLY RAMPING WRLY 60-70 KT 925 GEO FLOW PORTENDS TO
NEEDING HIR GUSTS ESPCLY ALONG LAKESHORE WITH GALE WATCH NEEDED FOR
NSH WATERS...HOLDING GUST BLO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM FOR
BERRIEN/LAPORTE. WHILE SFC FNTL TIMING CONSENSUS NUDGES A BIT
QUICKER...MAINTAINED PRIOR PTYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING GIVEN NEGATIVE
ICE INTRODUCTION WITH DRY SLOT...AND DEEPENING OF COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER STILL APPROPRIATELY LAGGED.
THEREAFTER...MODEST LES RESPONSE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING
NEWD TO CANADIAN WITH BEST FOCUS TUE...WANING INTO TUE NIGHT. LES
PARAMETERS CONT TO PRESENT RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH LK/8H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS...UNIMPRESSIVE SUPERSATURATION
AND DEPTH/COHESION OF DGZ...TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. MODELS DIVERGE
ON MAINTENANCE OF VIGORED SHORTWAVE PER WV IMAGERY NEAR
50N/140W...FAVOR EMCWF WITH MORE RECOGNIZABLE CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
WRN GRTLKS FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WED AFTN/NIGHT. AGAIN MINOR LES
INTO THU WITH PRIMARY FOCUS LEANING TO COASTAL CYCLONGENESIS OFF ERN
COAST OF FLA AS LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS OVR CNTL CONUS...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

GULF MOISTURE FLOWING N-NE AROUND STRONG SFC HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE NC
COAST WAS RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM EAST TX N-NE TO
WI-MI... INCLUDING AT KSBN. SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH WK SHRTWV MOVG
THROUGH THE AREA ATTM SHOULD MAINLY BE EAST OF KSBN AND REMAIN
NORTH OF KFWA THIS EVE. FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT WK SHRTWV
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHORT PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APCHG STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV/SFC WARM FRONT
OVERSPREADS NRN INDIANA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
UPDATE...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 222111
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN
TODAY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD AIR WAS OVERRIDING THE
COOLER AIR. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PER 12 KM NAM. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ICE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WRT ONGOING FORECAST. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/PLUME ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
FROM ARKLATEX 12 UTC SUN TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN EVE. 8 G/KG
1000-850 MB LAYER A BIT FARTHER NWD...NOW LAPPING AT SRN CWA SUN
NIGHT WITH PIVOT POINT OVR SERN CWA INADVOF SFC BNDRY MON AM. DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FORTIFIED BY INTENSE 150-200M/12 HR HFC LIFTING NWD
THROUGH CWA SUN NIGHT EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH AREA OF ENHANCED QPF
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA. ALSO GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF SFC FNT AND AVAILABLE MSTR HAVE RAMPED POPS SOMEWHAT INTO MON AM
AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN DY3 AFTN POPS AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
INTO CWA FM SW. EXTREME 25MB/3 HR CROSS FRONTAL FALL/RISE COUPLET
ALONG WITH QUICKLY RAMPING WRLY 60-70 KT 925 GEO FLOW PORTENDS TO
NEEDING HIR GUSTS ESPCLY ALONG LAKESHORE WITH GALE WATCH NEEDED FOR
NSH WATERS...HOLDING GUST BLO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM FOR
BERRIEN/LAPORTE. WHILE SFC FNTL TIMING CONSENSUS NUDGES A BIT
QUICKER...MAINTAINED PRIOR PTYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING GIVEN NEGATIVE
ICE INTRODUCTION WITH DRY SLOT...AND DEEPENING OF COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER STILL APPROPRIATELY LAGGED.
THEREAFTER...MODEST LES RESPONSE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING
NEWD TO CANADIAN WITH BEST FOCUS TUE...WANING INTO TUE NIGHT. LES
PARAMETERS CONT TO PRESENT RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH LK/8H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS...UNIMPRESSIVE SUPERSATURATION
AND DEPTH/COHESION OF DGZ...TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. MODELS DIVERGE
ON MAINTENANCE OF VIGORED SHORTWAVE PER WV IMAGERY NEAR
50N/140W...FAVOR EMCWF WITH MORE RECOGNIZABLE CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
WRN GRTLKS FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WED AFTN/NIGHT. AGAIN MINOR LES
INTO THU WITH PRIMARY FOCUS LEANING TO COASTAL CYCLONGENESIS OFF ERN
COAST OF FLA AS LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS OVR CNTL CONUS...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. CIG/VSBYS
HAVE IMPROVED...ESPECIALLY AT FWA WHERE CONDITIONS HAD IMPROVED TO
VFR. SHOWERS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THAT WAS STILL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT SHOWERS OFF AND ON
DURING THE TAF PERIOD AS WARM AIR OVERRIDES COOLER AIR. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 222111
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN
TODAY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD AIR WAS OVERRIDING THE
COOLER AIR. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PER 12 KM NAM. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ICE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WRT ONGOING FORECAST. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/PLUME ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
FROM ARKLATEX 12 UTC SUN TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN EVE. 8 G/KG
1000-850 MB LAYER A BIT FARTHER NWD...NOW LAPPING AT SRN CWA SUN
NIGHT WITH PIVOT POINT OVR SERN CWA INADVOF SFC BNDRY MON AM. DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FORTIFIED BY INTENSE 150-200M/12 HR HFC LIFTING NWD
THROUGH CWA SUN NIGHT EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH AREA OF ENHANCED QPF
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA. ALSO GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF SFC FNT AND AVAILABLE MSTR HAVE RAMPED POPS SOMEWHAT INTO MON AM
AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN DY3 AFTN POPS AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
INTO CWA FM SW. EXTREME 25MB/3 HR CROSS FRONTAL FALL/RISE COUPLET
ALONG WITH QUICKLY RAMPING WRLY 60-70 KT 925 GEO FLOW PORTENDS TO
NEEDING HIR GUSTS ESPCLY ALONG LAKESHORE WITH GALE WATCH NEEDED FOR
NSH WATERS...HOLDING GUST BLO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM FOR
BERRIEN/LAPORTE. WHILE SFC FNTL TIMING CONSENSUS NUDGES A BIT
QUICKER...MAINTAINED PRIOR PTYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING GIVEN NEGATIVE
ICE INTRODUCTION WITH DRY SLOT...AND DEEPENING OF COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER STILL APPROPRIATELY LAGGED.
THEREAFTER...MODEST LES RESPONSE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING
NEWD TO CANADIAN WITH BEST FOCUS TUE...WANING INTO TUE NIGHT. LES
PARAMETERS CONT TO PRESENT RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH LK/8H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS...UNIMPRESSIVE SUPERSATURATION
AND DEPTH/COHESION OF DGZ...TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. MODELS DIVERGE
ON MAINTENANCE OF VIGORED SHORTWAVE PER WV IMAGERY NEAR
50N/140W...FAVOR EMCWF WITH MORE RECOGNIZABLE CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
WRN GRTLKS FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WED AFTN/NIGHT. AGAIN MINOR LES
INTO THU WITH PRIMARY FOCUS LEANING TO COASTAL CYCLONGENESIS OFF ERN
COAST OF FLA AS LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS OVR CNTL CONUS...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. CIG/VSBYS
HAVE IMPROVED...ESPECIALLY AT FWA WHERE CONDITIONS HAD IMPROVED TO
VFR. SHOWERS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THAT WAS STILL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT SHOWERS OFF AND ON
DURING THE TAF PERIOD AS WARM AIR OVERRIDES COOLER AIR. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 221855
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
155 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN
TODAY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. CIG/VSBYS
HAVE IMPROVED...ESPECIALLY AT FWA WHERE CONDITIONS HAD IMPROVED TO
VFR. SHOWERS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THAT WAS STILL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT SHOWERS OFF AND ON
DURING THE TAF PERIOD AS WARM AIR OVERRIDES COOLER AIR. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 221456 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
955 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN
TODAY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
DID INCLUDE TEMPO IFR CIGS AT KSBN THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. BETTER
CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL EXIST AT KSBN.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP TODAY AND WITH BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH RAIN INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AS NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED LLWS
MENTION THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING FOR BOTH TERMINALS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 221456 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
955 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN
TODAY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
DID INCLUDE TEMPO IFR CIGS AT KSBN THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. BETTER
CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL EXIST AT KSBN.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP TODAY AND WITH BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH RAIN INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AS NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED LLWS
MENTION THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING FOR BOTH TERMINALS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 221454
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
954 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN
TODAY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS TODAY TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
DID INCLUDE TEMPO IFR CIGS AT KSBN THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. BETTER
CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL EXIST AT KSBN.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP TODAY AND WITH BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH RAIN INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AS NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED LLWS
MENTION THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING FOR BOTH TERMINALS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 221454
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
954 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN
TODAY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS TODAY TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
DID INCLUDE TEMPO IFR CIGS AT KSBN THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. BETTER
CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL EXIST AT KSBN.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP TODAY AND WITH BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH RAIN INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AS NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED LLWS
MENTION THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING FOR BOTH TERMINALS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 221159
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
659 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER
40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
DID INCLUDE TEMPO IFR CIGS AT KSBN THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. BETTER
CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL EXIST AT KSBN.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP TODAY AND WITH BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH RAIN INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AS NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED LLWS
MENTION THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING FOR BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
     FOR INZ003>009-012-014-016>018.

MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ077>081.

OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 221159
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
659 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER
40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
DID INCLUDE TEMPO IFR CIGS AT KSBN THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. BETTER
CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL EXIST AT KSBN.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP TODAY AND WITH BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH RAIN INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AS NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED LLWS
MENTION THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING FOR BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
     FOR INZ003>009-012-014-016>018.

MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ077>081.

OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 220849
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
349 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER
40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT APPROXIMATELY A 3 HOUR
WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN AT THE TERMINALS...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
DURING THIS PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED TO TOTAL TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TIME PERIOD OF GREATEST THREAT OF FREEZING
RAIN APPEARS TO BE FROM 08Z-12Z...WITH PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF
LIQUID PRECIP TYPE AFTER 12Z. PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
AREA...SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH RAIN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
CARRIED PREVAILING RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LATER FORECAST CYCLES MAY BE ABLE TO NARROW THIS
MENTION...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...SLUG OF DEEPER
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ADVECT BACK NORTHWARD RENEWING RAIN
LIKELIHOOD. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
BEST CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT AT KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
     FOR INZ003>005-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ006>009.

MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077-
     078.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ079>081.

OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ015-
     016-024-025.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 220849
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
349 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER
40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT APPROXIMATELY A 3 HOUR
WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN AT THE TERMINALS...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
DURING THIS PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED TO TOTAL TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TIME PERIOD OF GREATEST THREAT OF FREEZING
RAIN APPEARS TO BE FROM 08Z-12Z...WITH PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF
LIQUID PRECIP TYPE AFTER 12Z. PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
AREA...SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH RAIN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
CARRIED PREVAILING RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LATER FORECAST CYCLES MAY BE ABLE TO NARROW THIS
MENTION...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...SLUG OF DEEPER
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ADVECT BACK NORTHWARD RENEWING RAIN
LIKELIHOOD. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
BEST CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT AT KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
     FOR INZ003>005-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ006>009.

MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077-
     078.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ079>081.

OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ015-
     016-024-025.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 220552
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1252 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO SATURDAY...DRAWING IN WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK SYSTEM...STARTING AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE REACHED EARLY...PRIMARILY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MINOR CHANGES ON EVE UPDATE TO PUSH BACK START OF MENTIONABLE POPS
UNTIL 06Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SHOWERS DVLPG OVER MO WILL TAKE
AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA AND MAY DIMINISH SOME AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER IL/IN. A SHORT FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP AND SFC TEMPS
IN OUR CWA IF AND WHEN PRECIP OCCURS... SO HELD OFF FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL START TO THE SHORT TERM WILL QUICKLY END AS THE FIRST IN
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE REGION AND RETURNS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

LEADING EDGE OF FIRST WAVE WAS ALREADY MOVING INTO MISSOURI AND WILL
ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN THE 6 TO 9Z SAT WINDOW
ALLOWING FOR LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE AND LIGHT RAIN TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS NW PARTS OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST.
CONCERNS STILL LOOM FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET
AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS OVERTOP A SHALLOW COLD DOME IN
PLACE FROM THE RECENT COLD SNAP. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST THIS
COLD DOME IS PUSHED OUT. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED FASTER WITH
ARRIVAL OF WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH ALL BUT NE SECTIONS
LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z SAT. A 2 TO MAYBE 4 HOUR WINDOW WILL
EXIST AT ANY ONE SPOT FOR SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION AS THE COLD
GROUND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO WARM...EVEN AS TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 33 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE...ANY
ICE ACCRETION SHOULD END. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH
CAT POPS IN THE NW TO HIGH CHC IN SE WHERE DEEPER MSTR WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO ARRIVE. WHILE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT MOST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...THIS MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME SLICK
SPOTS. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THE DURATION AND EXTENT OF ICING IS STILL
LOW...WILL FRESHEN UP THE SPS ISSUED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. LOWS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES FROM THAT
POINT.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS PEAK LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA. MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS...HIGHEST NW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW UPPER 40S IN SW
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON WEEKEND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING. FOCUS CONTS ON TWO
PRIMARY/HEIGHTENED RAFL EVENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
LIGHT/PROLONGED QPF EVENT. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NRN STREAM OVR
CNTL MT TIMED INTO UPR GRTLKS SAT NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH FIRST
MOISTURE SLUG PER 1000-850MB MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE/6-7 G/KG
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON HIR LATE NIGHT
POPS/QPF. THEREAFTER...PSBL LULL/LIGHT FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS FORESEEN. SECOND ARDENT FOCUSED
LIFT/MOISTURE SURGE SUNDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
VORTEX OVR GULF OF CAL DROPPING THROUGH EDWARDS PLATEAU THEN
LIFTING FROM NERN TX RAPIDLY NEWD INTO OHIO VALLEY LATE DY3.
PWATS RISE TO 1-1.1 INCHES APPROX 80TH PERCENTILE/ SUN EVE/ERLY
NIGHT AS EVEN GREATER BULK MOISTURE SURGE WITH 8 G/KG NOSING INTO
CNTL IN BY F66. FORCED PARCEL ASCENT ON NOSE OF 60-65 KT LOW
LEVEL JET COULD PORTEND TO ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA...THOUGH WITH NAM
MUCAPE BLO 50 J/KG WILL OMIT FROM FCST ATTM. LESSENED DIURNAL
SWINGS PRIMARILY WITH WARMER LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER RA/SN TO SN...PER CONSENSUS
AS ANTICIPATED WITH SYSTEM BECOMING INCRSNGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT APPROXIMATELY A 3 HOUR
WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN AT THE TERMINALS...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
DURING THIS PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED TO TOTAL TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TIME PERIOD OF GREATEST THREAT OF FREEZING
RAIN APPEARS TO BE FROM 08Z-12Z...WITH PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF
LIQUID PRECIP TYPE AFTER 12Z. PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
AREA...SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH RAIN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
CARRIED PREVAILING RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LATER FORECAST CYCLES MAY BE ABLE TO NARROW THIS
MENTION...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...SLUG OF DEEPER
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ADVECT BACK NORTHWARD RENEWING RAIN
LIKELIHOOD. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
BEST CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT AT KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 212344
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
644 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO SATURDAY...DRAWING IN WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK SYSTEM...STARTING AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE REACHED EARLY...PRIMARILY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MINOR CHANGES ON EVE UPDATE TO PUSH BACK START OF MENTIONABLE POPS
UNTIL 06Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SHOWERS DVLPG OVER MO WILL TAKE
AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA AND MAY DIMINISH SOME AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER IL/IN. A SHORT FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP AND SFC TEMPS
IN OUR CWA IF AND WHEN PRECIP OCCURS... SO HELD OFF FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL START TO THE SHORT TERM WILL QUICKLY END AS THE FIRST IN
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE REGION AND RETURNS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

LEADING EDGE OF FIRST WAVE WAS ALREADY MOVING INTO MISSOURI AND WILL
ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN THE 6 TO 9Z SAT WINDOW
ALLOWING FOR LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE AND LIGHT RAIN TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS NW PARTS OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST.
CONCERNS STILL LOOM FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET
AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS OVERTOP A SHALLOW COLD DOME IN
PLACE FROM THE RECENT COLD SNAP. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST THIS
COLD DOME IS PUSHED OUT. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED FASTER WITH
ARRIVAL OF WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH ALL BUT NE SECTIONS
LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z SAT. A 2 TO MAYBE 4 HOUR WINDOW WILL
EXIST AT ANY ONE SPOT FOR SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION AS THE COLD
GROUND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO WARM...EVEN AS TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 33 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE...ANY
ICE ACCRETION SHOULD END. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH
CAT POPS IN THE NW TO HIGH CHC IN SE WHERE DEEPER MSTR WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO ARRIVE. WHILE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT MOST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...THIS MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME SLICK
SPOTS. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THE DURATION AND EXTENT OF ICING IS STILL
LOW...WILL FRESHEN UP THE SPS ISSUED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. LOWS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES FROM THAT
POINT.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS PEAK LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA. MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS...HIGHEST NW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW UPPER 40S IN SW
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON WEEKEND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING. FOCUS CONTS ON TWO
PRIMARY/HEIGHTENED RAFL EVENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
LIGHT/PROLONGED QPF EVENT. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NRN STREAM OVR
CNTL MT TIMED INTO UPR GRTLKS SAT NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH FIRST
MOISTURE SLUG PER 1000-850MB MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE/6-7 G/KG
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON HIR LATE NIGHT
POPS/QPF. THEREAFTER...PSBL LULL/LIGHT FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS FORESEEN. SECOND ARDENT FOCUSED
LIFT/MOISTURE SURGE SUNDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
VORTEX OVR GULF OF CAL DROPPING THROUGH EDWARDS PLATEAU THEN
LIFTING FROM NERN TX RAPIDLY NEWD INTO OHIO VALLEY LATE DY3.
PWATS RISE TO 1-1.1 INCHES APPROX 80TH PERCENTILE/ SUN EVE/ERLY
NIGHT AS EVEN GREATER BULK MOISTURE SURGE WITH 8 G/KG NOSING INTO
CNTL IN BY F66. FORCED PARCEL ASCENT ON NOSE OF 60-65 KT LOW
LEVEL JET COULD PORTEND TO ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA...THOUGH WITH NAM
MUCAPE BLO 50 J/KG WILL OMIT FROM FCST ATTM. LESSENED DIURNAL
SWINGS PRIMARILY WITH WARMER LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER RA/SN TO SN...PER CONSENSUS
AS ANTICIPATED WITH SYSTEM BECOMING INCRSNGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A WK SHRTWV MOVG EAST
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN AT THE TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z. CONTD LOW LEVEL WAA
AND NEARLY SATURATED LOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN WAKE OF
SHRTWV SATURDAY... CONTINUING TO CAUSE LOW CIGS AND OCNL -RA/BR AT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. CONTD FCST OF MVFR WITH LOWEST
CONDITIONS AT SBN WHERE SOME IFR PSBL... BUT HELD IN LOW MVFR
RANGE FOR NOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 212344
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
644 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO SATURDAY...DRAWING IN WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK SYSTEM...STARTING AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE REACHED EARLY...PRIMARILY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MINOR CHANGES ON EVE UPDATE TO PUSH BACK START OF MENTIONABLE POPS
UNTIL 06Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SHOWERS DVLPG OVER MO WILL TAKE
AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA AND MAY DIMINISH SOME AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER IL/IN. A SHORT FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP AND SFC TEMPS
IN OUR CWA IF AND WHEN PRECIP OCCURS... SO HELD OFF FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL START TO THE SHORT TERM WILL QUICKLY END AS THE FIRST IN
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE REGION AND RETURNS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

LEADING EDGE OF FIRST WAVE WAS ALREADY MOVING INTO MISSOURI AND WILL
ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN THE 6 TO 9Z SAT WINDOW
ALLOWING FOR LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE AND LIGHT RAIN TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS NW PARTS OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST.
CONCERNS STILL LOOM FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET
AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS OVERTOP A SHALLOW COLD DOME IN
PLACE FROM THE RECENT COLD SNAP. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST THIS
COLD DOME IS PUSHED OUT. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED FASTER WITH
ARRIVAL OF WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH ALL BUT NE SECTIONS
LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z SAT. A 2 TO MAYBE 4 HOUR WINDOW WILL
EXIST AT ANY ONE SPOT FOR SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION AS THE COLD
GROUND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO WARM...EVEN AS TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 33 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE...ANY
ICE ACCRETION SHOULD END. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH
CAT POPS IN THE NW TO HIGH CHC IN SE WHERE DEEPER MSTR WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO ARRIVE. WHILE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT MOST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...THIS MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME SLICK
SPOTS. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THE DURATION AND EXTENT OF ICING IS STILL
LOW...WILL FRESHEN UP THE SPS ISSUED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. LOWS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES FROM THAT
POINT.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS PEAK LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA. MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS...HIGHEST NW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW UPPER 40S IN SW
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON WEEKEND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING. FOCUS CONTS ON TWO
PRIMARY/HEIGHTENED RAFL EVENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
LIGHT/PROLONGED QPF EVENT. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NRN STREAM OVR
CNTL MT TIMED INTO UPR GRTLKS SAT NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH FIRST
MOISTURE SLUG PER 1000-850MB MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE/6-7 G/KG
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON HIR LATE NIGHT
POPS/QPF. THEREAFTER...PSBL LULL/LIGHT FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS FORESEEN. SECOND ARDENT FOCUSED
LIFT/MOISTURE SURGE SUNDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
VORTEX OVR GULF OF CAL DROPPING THROUGH EDWARDS PLATEAU THEN
LIFTING FROM NERN TX RAPIDLY NEWD INTO OHIO VALLEY LATE DY3.
PWATS RISE TO 1-1.1 INCHES APPROX 80TH PERCENTILE/ SUN EVE/ERLY
NIGHT AS EVEN GREATER BULK MOISTURE SURGE WITH 8 G/KG NOSING INTO
CNTL IN BY F66. FORCED PARCEL ASCENT ON NOSE OF 60-65 KT LOW
LEVEL JET COULD PORTEND TO ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA...THOUGH WITH NAM
MUCAPE BLO 50 J/KG WILL OMIT FROM FCST ATTM. LESSENED DIURNAL
SWINGS PRIMARILY WITH WARMER LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER RA/SN TO SN...PER CONSENSUS
AS ANTICIPATED WITH SYSTEM BECOMING INCRSNGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A WK SHRTWV MOVG EAST
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN AT THE TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z. CONTD LOW LEVEL WAA
AND NEARLY SATURATED LOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN WAKE OF
SHRTWV SATURDAY... CONTINUING TO CAUSE LOW CIGS AND OCNL -RA/BR AT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. CONTD FCST OF MVFR WITH LOWEST
CONDITIONS AT SBN WHERE SOME IFR PSBL... BUT HELD IN LOW MVFR
RANGE FOR NOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 212111
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO SATURDAY...DRAWING IN WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK SYSTEM...STARTING AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE REACHED EARLY...PRIMARILY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL START TO THE SHORT TERM WILL QUICKLY END AS THE FIRST IN
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE REGION AND RETURNS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

LEADING EDGE OF FIRST WAVE WAS ALREADY MOVING INTO MISSOURI AND WILL
ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN THE 6 TO 9Z SAT WINDOW
ALLOWING FOR LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE AND LIGHT RAIN TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS NW PARTS OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST.
CONCERNS STILL LOOM FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET
AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS OVERTOP A SHALLOW COLD DOME IN
PLACE FROM THE RECENT COLD SNAP. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST THIS
COLD DOME IS PUSHED OUT. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED FASTER WITH
ARRIVAL OF WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH ALL BUT NE SECTIONS
LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z SAT. A 2 TO MAYBE 4 HOUR WINDOW WILL
EXIST AT ANY ONE SPOT FOR SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION AS THE COLD
GROUND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO WARM...EVEN AS TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 33 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE...ANY
ICE ACCRETION SHOULD END. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH
CAT POPS IN THE NW TO HIGH CHC IN SE WHERE DEEPER MSTR WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO ARRIVE. WHILE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT MOST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...THIS MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME SLICK
SPOTS. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THE DURATION AND EXTENT OF ICING IS STILL
LOW...WILL FRESHEN UP THE SPS ISSUED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. LOWS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES FROM THAT
POINT.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS PEAK LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA. MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS...HIGHEST NW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW UPPER 40S IN SW
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON WEEKEND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING. FOCUS CONTS ON TWO
PRIMARY/HEIGHTENED RAFL EVENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
LIGHT/PROLONGED QPF EVENT. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NRN STREAM OVR
CNTL MT TIMED INTO UPR GRTLKS SAT NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH FIRST
MOISTURE SLUG PER 1000-850MB MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE/6-7 G/KG
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON HIR LATE NIGHT
POPS/QPF. THEREAFTER...PSBL LULL/LIGHT FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS FORESEEN. SECOND ARDENT FOCUSED
LIFT/MOISTURE SURGE SUNDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
VORTEX OVR GULF OF CAL DROPPING THROUGH EDWARDS PLATEAU THEN
LIFTING FROM NERN TX RAPIDLY NEWD INTO OHIO VALLEY LATE DY3.
PWATS RISE TO 1-1.1 INCHES APPROX 80TH PERCENTILE/ SUN EVE/ERLY
NIGHT AS EVEN GREATER BULK MOISTURE SURGE WITH 8 G/KG NOSING INTO
CNTL IN BY F66. FORCED PARCEL ASCENT ON NOSE OF 60-65 KT LOW
LEVEL JET COULD PORTEND TO ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA...THOUGH WITH NAM
MUCAPE BLO 50 J/KG WILL OMIT FROM FCST ATTM. LESSENED DIURNAL
SWINGS PRIMARILY WITH WARMER LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER RA/SN TO SN...PER CONSENSUS
AS ANTICIPATED WITH SYSTEM BECOMING INCRSNGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER TO START OUT THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING AFTER 6Z. A
MASSIVE SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE LIQUID VS FROZEN FORM.
HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS AT THE ONSET...WARRANTING A CONTINUATION
OF OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MENTION. HAVE KEPT THIS GOING FOR ABOUT
A 4 HOUR PERIOD AT EACH SITE BUT THIS MAY BE TOO LONG WITH
SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS COMING IN WITH SFC TEMPS RAPIDLY CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL DROP RAPIDLY INTO MVFR RANGE
AS PRECIP STARTS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM IS STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP A STRONG WIND FIELD FROM MIXING TO THE GROUND AS 2000 FT
SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 50 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO BOTH
TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 212111
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO SATURDAY...DRAWING IN WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK SYSTEM...STARTING AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE REACHED EARLY...PRIMARILY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL START TO THE SHORT TERM WILL QUICKLY END AS THE FIRST IN
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE REGION AND RETURNS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

LEADING EDGE OF FIRST WAVE WAS ALREADY MOVING INTO MISSOURI AND WILL
ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN THE 6 TO 9Z SAT WINDOW
ALLOWING FOR LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE AND LIGHT RAIN TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS NW PARTS OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST.
CONCERNS STILL LOOM FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET
AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS OVERTOP A SHALLOW COLD DOME IN
PLACE FROM THE RECENT COLD SNAP. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST THIS
COLD DOME IS PUSHED OUT. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED FASTER WITH
ARRIVAL OF WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH ALL BUT NE SECTIONS
LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z SAT. A 2 TO MAYBE 4 HOUR WINDOW WILL
EXIST AT ANY ONE SPOT FOR SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION AS THE COLD
GROUND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO WARM...EVEN AS TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 33 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE...ANY
ICE ACCRETION SHOULD END. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH
CAT POPS IN THE NW TO HIGH CHC IN SE WHERE DEEPER MSTR WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO ARRIVE. WHILE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT MOST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...THIS MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME SLICK
SPOTS. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THE DURATION AND EXTENT OF ICING IS STILL
LOW...WILL FRESHEN UP THE SPS ISSUED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. LOWS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES FROM THAT
POINT.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS PEAK LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA. MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS...HIGHEST NW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW UPPER 40S IN SW
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON WEEKEND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING. FOCUS CONTS ON TWO
PRIMARY/HEIGHTENED RAFL EVENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
LIGHT/PROLONGED QPF EVENT. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NRN STREAM OVR
CNTL MT TIMED INTO UPR GRTLKS SAT NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH FIRST
MOISTURE SLUG PER 1000-850MB MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE/6-7 G/KG
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON HIR LATE NIGHT
POPS/QPF. THEREAFTER...PSBL LULL/LIGHT FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS FORESEEN. SECOND ARDENT FOCUSED
LIFT/MOISTURE SURGE SUNDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
VORTEX OVR GULF OF CAL DROPPING THROUGH EDWARDS PLATEAU THEN
LIFTING FROM NERN TX RAPIDLY NEWD INTO OHIO VALLEY LATE DY3.
PWATS RISE TO 1-1.1 INCHES APPROX 80TH PERCENTILE/ SUN EVE/ERLY
NIGHT AS EVEN GREATER BULK MOISTURE SURGE WITH 8 G/KG NOSING INTO
CNTL IN BY F66. FORCED PARCEL ASCENT ON NOSE OF 60-65 KT LOW
LEVEL JET COULD PORTEND TO ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA...THOUGH WITH NAM
MUCAPE BLO 50 J/KG WILL OMIT FROM FCST ATTM. LESSENED DIURNAL
SWINGS PRIMARILY WITH WARMER LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER RA/SN TO SN...PER CONSENSUS
AS ANTICIPATED WITH SYSTEM BECOMING INCRSNGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER TO START OUT THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING AFTER 6Z. A
MASSIVE SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE LIQUID VS FROZEN FORM.
HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS AT THE ONSET...WARRANTING A CONTINUATION
OF OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MENTION. HAVE KEPT THIS GOING FOR ABOUT
A 4 HOUR PERIOD AT EACH SITE BUT THIS MAY BE TOO LONG WITH
SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS COMING IN WITH SFC TEMPS RAPIDLY CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL DROP RAPIDLY INTO MVFR RANGE
AS PRECIP STARTS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM IS STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP A STRONG WIND FIELD FROM MIXING TO THE GROUND AS 2000 FT
SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 50 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO BOTH
TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 211758
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1258 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO SATURDAY...DRAWING IN WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SYSTEM...STARTING AS A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE MID 20S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN OHIO. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...TO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM FOR TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ONLY LIMITING
VSBYS IN THE 3-6 MILE RANGE. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH A STRAY TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z. SFC ANTICYCLONE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BACKING LOW WINDS AND REDUCED FETCH. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ALSO
TO STEADILY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CRASH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD SHAPE UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING. ARCTIC DOME
WILL BE SOMEWHAT STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT...AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 30 WEST...TO THE MID 20S
EAST.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS VERY DRY AIR MASS SUBJECT
TO HISTORY OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
INTO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
WAVE...AND THEN WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE 06Z-18Z
TIMEFRAME. MID/UPPER FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
GIVEN BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE TO THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH BUT
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOWARD THE 06Z TIMEFRAME. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS POTENTIAL
OF SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WARM LAYER
ALOFT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER 06Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY ALTHOUGH INITIALLY
THE VERY DRY NATURE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OFFERS SOME LOWER
CONFIDENCE REGARDING ONSET TIME AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. GIVEN STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND AT LEAST WEAK
MID/UPPER FORCING HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TRENDS TO HIGHER POPS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD. PERIOD OF GREATEST
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/AMOUNTS AND BEING A LATE 2ND PERIOD POTENTIAL EVENT...WILL
LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR HEADLINES FURTHER. PLUME OF
RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT IN WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT (GENERALLY
LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH)...MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY
WEAKER CONVECTIVE RESPONSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY FOR ANY
LOCALIZED HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.

PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERWHELMS PROFILES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH EVEN FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS TO LIQUID PRECIP TYPE BY 14 OR 15Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WET/WARMER THIS WEEKEND/MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY COLD WX
THEREAFTER....

ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER JET WORKING EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN ZONAL FLOW MAY KEEP AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AROUND INTO SATURDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SFC WARMS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER RAINFALL
ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SRN STREAM PV ANOMALY (NOW OVER SRN CA)
LIFTS NNE THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO WAVE,
PHASING/STRENGTHENING OF UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING
PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH, AND GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS WITH MODELS AGREEING ON SFC REFLECTION TRACK
NNE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES. AT LEAST THE WESTERLY
TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME.

THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH CONSOLIDATES INTO THE EASTERN US BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THIS NEXT COLD BLAST
(ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS THIS PAST WEEK) WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH
ON MONDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED LATE MORNING-AFTN. FRONTAL
WAVE/MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUES TO SHOW UP IN BULK OF GUIDANCE
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) TO
BLOSSOM/EXPAND NE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CAA/CYCLONIC
FLOW SCT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CAN EXPECTED WITHIN TROUGH AXIS LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ACCUMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS LOWER MI/FAR NRN IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER TO START OUT THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING AFTER 6Z. A
MASSIVE SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE LIQUID VS FROZEN FORM.
HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR A FEW HOURS AT THE ONSET...WARRANTING A CONTINUATION OF OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MENTION. HAVE KEPT THIS GOING FOR ABOUT A 4
HOUR PERIOD AT EACH SITE BUT THIS MAY BE TOO LONG WITH SEVERAL
HIGH RES MODELS COMING IN WITH SFC TEMPS RAPIDLY CLIMBING ABOVE
FREEZING AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL DROP RAPIDLY INTO MVFR RANGE AS
PRECIP STARTS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM IS STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP A STRONG WIND FIELD FROM MIXING TO THE GROUND AS 2000 FT
SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 50 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO BOTH
TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 211758
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1258 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO SATURDAY...DRAWING IN WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SYSTEM...STARTING AS A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE MID 20S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN OHIO. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...TO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM FOR TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ONLY LIMITING
VSBYS IN THE 3-6 MILE RANGE. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH A STRAY TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z. SFC ANTICYCLONE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BACKING LOW WINDS AND REDUCED FETCH. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ALSO
TO STEADILY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CRASH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD SHAPE UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING. ARCTIC DOME
WILL BE SOMEWHAT STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT...AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 30 WEST...TO THE MID 20S
EAST.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS VERY DRY AIR MASS SUBJECT
TO HISTORY OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
INTO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
WAVE...AND THEN WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE 06Z-18Z
TIMEFRAME. MID/UPPER FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
GIVEN BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE TO THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH BUT
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOWARD THE 06Z TIMEFRAME. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS POTENTIAL
OF SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WARM LAYER
ALOFT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER 06Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY ALTHOUGH INITIALLY
THE VERY DRY NATURE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OFFERS SOME LOWER
CONFIDENCE REGARDING ONSET TIME AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. GIVEN STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND AT LEAST WEAK
MID/UPPER FORCING HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TRENDS TO HIGHER POPS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD. PERIOD OF GREATEST
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/AMOUNTS AND BEING A LATE 2ND PERIOD POTENTIAL EVENT...WILL
LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR HEADLINES FURTHER. PLUME OF
RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT IN WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT (GENERALLY
LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH)...MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY
WEAKER CONVECTIVE RESPONSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY FOR ANY
LOCALIZED HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.

PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERWHELMS PROFILES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH EVEN FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS TO LIQUID PRECIP TYPE BY 14 OR 15Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WET/WARMER THIS WEEKEND/MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY COLD WX
THEREAFTER....

ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER JET WORKING EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN ZONAL FLOW MAY KEEP AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AROUND INTO SATURDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SFC WARMS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER RAINFALL
ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SRN STREAM PV ANOMALY (NOW OVER SRN CA)
LIFTS NNE THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO WAVE,
PHASING/STRENGTHENING OF UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING
PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH, AND GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS WITH MODELS AGREEING ON SFC REFLECTION TRACK
NNE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES. AT LEAST THE WESTERLY
TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME.

THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH CONSOLIDATES INTO THE EASTERN US BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THIS NEXT COLD BLAST
(ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS THIS PAST WEEK) WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH
ON MONDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED LATE MORNING-AFTN. FRONTAL
WAVE/MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUES TO SHOW UP IN BULK OF GUIDANCE
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) TO
BLOSSOM/EXPAND NE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CAA/CYCLONIC
FLOW SCT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CAN EXPECTED WITHIN TROUGH AXIS LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ACCUMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS LOWER MI/FAR NRN IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER TO START OUT THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING AFTER 6Z. A
MASSIVE SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE LIQUID VS FROZEN FORM.
HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR A FEW HOURS AT THE ONSET...WARRANTING A CONTINUATION OF OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MENTION. HAVE KEPT THIS GOING FOR ABOUT A 4
HOUR PERIOD AT EACH SITE BUT THIS MAY BE TOO LONG WITH SEVERAL
HIGH RES MODELS COMING IN WITH SFC TEMPS RAPIDLY CLIMBING ABOVE
FREEZING AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL DROP RAPIDLY INTO MVFR RANGE AS
PRECIP STARTS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM IS STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP A STRONG WIND FIELD FROM MIXING TO THE GROUND AS 2000 FT
SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 50 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO BOTH
TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 211132
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
632 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END. WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
ROCKIES TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE MID 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN OHIO. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM FOR TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ONLY LIMITING
VSBYS IN THE 3-6 MILE RANGE. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH A STRAY TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z. SFC ANTICYCLONE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BACKING LOW WINDS AND REDUCED FETCH. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ALSO
TO STEADILY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CRASH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD SHAPE UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING. ARCTIC DOME
WILL BE SOMEWHAT STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT...AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 30 WEST...TO THE MID 20S
EAST.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS VERY DRY AIR MASS SUBJECT
TO HISTORY OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
INTO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
WAVE...AND THEN WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE 06Z-18Z
TIMEFRAME. MID/UPPER FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
GIVEN BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE TO THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH BUT
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOWARD THE 06Z TIMEFRAME. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS POTENTIAL
OF SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WARM LAYER
ALOFT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER 06Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY ALTHOUGH INITIALLY
THE VERY DRY NATURE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OFFERS SOME LOWER
CONFIDENCE REGARDING ONSET TIME AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. GIVEN STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND AT LEAST WEAK
MID/UPPER FORCING HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TRENDS TO HIGHER POPS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD. PERIOD OF GREATEST
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/AMOUNTS AND BEING A LATE 2ND PERIOD POTENTIAL EVENT...WILL
LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR HEADLINES FURTHER. PLUME OF
RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT IN WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT (GENERALLY
LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH)...MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY
WEAKER CONVECTIVE RESPONSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY FOR ANY
LOCALIZED HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.

PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERWHELMS PROFILES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH EVEN FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS TO LIQUID PRECIP TYPE BY 14 OR 15Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WET/WARMER THIS WEEKEND/MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY COLD WX
THEREAFTER....

ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER JET WORKING EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN ZONAL FLOW MAY KEEP AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AROUND INTO SATURDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SFC WARMS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER RAINFALL
ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SRN STREAM PV ANOMALY (NOW OVER SRN CA)
LIFTS NNE THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO WAVE,
PHASING/STRENGTHENING OF UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING
PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH, AND GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS WITH MODELS AGREEING ON SFC REFLECTION TRACK
NNE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES. AT LEAST THE WESTERLY
TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME.

THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH CONSOLIDATES INTO THE EASTERN US BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THIS NEXT COLD BLAST
(ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS THIS PAST WEEK) WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH
ON MONDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED LATE MORNING-AFTN. FRONTAL
WAVE/MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUES TO SHOW UP IN BULK OF GUIDANCE
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) TO
BLOSSOM/EXPAND NE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CAA/CYCLONIC
FLOW SCT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CAN EXPECTED WITHIN TROUGH AXIS LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ACCUMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS LOWER MI/FAR NRN IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR LAKE EFFECT LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW BACKS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. VFR CONDITIONS TO THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED DUE TO LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO LIFT
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WAVE KICKING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. A BRIEF WINDOW APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL AS WARM AIR ALOFT OVERRIDES SHALLOW COLD AIR. THE TIME
PERIOD OF GREATEST THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE IN THE
08Z-13Z TIMEFRAME EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE TRENDED TAFS TO MVFR
TERMINALS WITH CIGS IN THE 2000-3000 FT RANGE...ALTHOUGH CIGS BELOW
2K FT ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD AND
EXTENDING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 211132
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
632 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END. WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
ROCKIES TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE MID 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN OHIO. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM FOR TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ONLY LIMITING
VSBYS IN THE 3-6 MILE RANGE. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH A STRAY TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z. SFC ANTICYCLONE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BACKING LOW WINDS AND REDUCED FETCH. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ALSO
TO STEADILY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CRASH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD SHAPE UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING. ARCTIC DOME
WILL BE SOMEWHAT STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT...AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 30 WEST...TO THE MID 20S
EAST.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS VERY DRY AIR MASS SUBJECT
TO HISTORY OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
INTO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
WAVE...AND THEN WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE 06Z-18Z
TIMEFRAME. MID/UPPER FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
GIVEN BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE TO THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH BUT
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOWARD THE 06Z TIMEFRAME. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS POTENTIAL
OF SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WARM LAYER
ALOFT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER 06Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY ALTHOUGH INITIALLY
THE VERY DRY NATURE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OFFERS SOME LOWER
CONFIDENCE REGARDING ONSET TIME AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. GIVEN STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND AT LEAST WEAK
MID/UPPER FORCING HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TRENDS TO HIGHER POPS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD. PERIOD OF GREATEST
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/AMOUNTS AND BEING A LATE 2ND PERIOD POTENTIAL EVENT...WILL
LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR HEADLINES FURTHER. PLUME OF
RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT IN WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT (GENERALLY
LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH)...MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY
WEAKER CONVECTIVE RESPONSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY FOR ANY
LOCALIZED HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.

PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERWHELMS PROFILES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH EVEN FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS TO LIQUID PRECIP TYPE BY 14 OR 15Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WET/WARMER THIS WEEKEND/MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY COLD WX
THEREAFTER....

ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER JET WORKING EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN ZONAL FLOW MAY KEEP AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AROUND INTO SATURDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SFC WARMS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER RAINFALL
ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SRN STREAM PV ANOMALY (NOW OVER SRN CA)
LIFTS NNE THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO WAVE,
PHASING/STRENGTHENING OF UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING
PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH, AND GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS WITH MODELS AGREEING ON SFC REFLECTION TRACK
NNE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES. AT LEAST THE WESTERLY
TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME.

THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH CONSOLIDATES INTO THE EASTERN US BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THIS NEXT COLD BLAST
(ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS THIS PAST WEEK) WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH
ON MONDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED LATE MORNING-AFTN. FRONTAL
WAVE/MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUES TO SHOW UP IN BULK OF GUIDANCE
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) TO
BLOSSOM/EXPAND NE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CAA/CYCLONIC
FLOW SCT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CAN EXPECTED WITHIN TROUGH AXIS LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ACCUMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS LOWER MI/FAR NRN IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR LAKE EFFECT LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW BACKS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. VFR CONDITIONS TO THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED DUE TO LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO LIFT
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WAVE KICKING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. A BRIEF WINDOW APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL AS WARM AIR ALOFT OVERRIDES SHALLOW COLD AIR. THE TIME
PERIOD OF GREATEST THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE IN THE
08Z-13Z TIMEFRAME EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE TRENDED TAFS TO MVFR
TERMINALS WITH CIGS IN THE 2000-3000 FT RANGE...ALTHOUGH CIGS BELOW
2K FT ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD AND
EXTENDING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 210908
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
408 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END. WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
ROCKIES TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE MID 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN OHIO. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM FOR TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ONLY LIMITING
VSBYS IN THE 3-6 MILE RANGE. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH A STRAY TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z. SFC ANTICYCLONE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BACKING LOW WINDS AND REDUCED FETCH. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ALSO
TO STEADILY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CRASH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD SHAPE UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING. ARCTIC DOME
WILL BE SOMEWHAT STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT...AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 30 WEST...TO THE MID 20S
EAST.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS VERY DRY AIR MASS SUBJECT
TO HISTORY OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
INTO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
WAVE...AND THEN WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE 06Z-18Z
TIMEFRAME. MID/UPPER FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
GIVEN BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE TO THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH BUT
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOWARD THE 06Z TIMEFRAME. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS POTENTIAL
OF SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WARM LAYER
ALOFT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER 06Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY ALTHOUGH INITIALLY
THE VERY DRY NATURE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OFFERS SOME LOWER
CONFIDENCE REGARDING ONSET TIME AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. GIVEN STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND AT LEAST WEAK
MID/UPPER FORCING HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TRENDS TO HIGHER POPS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD. PERIOD OF GREATEST
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/AMOUNTS AND BEING A LATE 2ND PERIOD POTENTIAL EVENT...WILL
LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR HEADLINES FURTHER. PLUME OF
RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT IN WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT (GENERALLY
LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH)...MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY
WEAKER CONVECTIVE RESPONSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY FOR ANY
LOCALIZED HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.

PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERWHELMS PROFILES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH EVEN FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS TO LIQUID PRECIP TYPE BY 14 OR 15Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WET/WARMER THIS WEEKEND/MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY COLD WX
THEREAFTER....

ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER JET WORKING EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN ZONAL FLOW MAY KEEP AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AROUND INTO SATURDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SFC WARMS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER RAINFALL
ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SRN STREAM PV ANOMALY (NOW OVER SRN CA)
LIFTS NNE THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO WAVE,
PHASING/STRENGTHENING OF UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING
PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH, AND GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS WITH MODELS AGREEING ON SFC REFLECTION TRACK
NNE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES. AT LEAST THE WESTERLY
TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME.

THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH CONSOLIDATES INTO THE EASTERN US BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THIS NEXT COLD BLAST
(ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS THIS PAST WEEK) WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH
ON MONDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED LATE MORNING-AFTN. FRONTAL
WAVE/MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUES TO SHOW UP IN BULK OF GUIDANCE
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) TO
BLOSSOM/EXPAND NE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CAA/CYCLONIC
FLOW SCT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CAN EXPECTED WITHIN TROUGH AXIS LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ACCUMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS LOWER MI/FAR NRN IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO COME TO AN END. MUCH OF THESE
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KSBN WITH JUST LAKE
EFFECT LOW CLOUD CIGS OF 4-5K FT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SFC ANTICYCLONE FROM THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD...WILL
NEED TO ADDRESS -FZRA POTENTIAL IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME DUE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND SHALLOW COLD AIR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 210908
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
408 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END. WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
ROCKIES TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE MID 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN OHIO. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM FOR TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ONLY LIMITING
VSBYS IN THE 3-6 MILE RANGE. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH A STRAY TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z. SFC ANTICYCLONE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BACKING LOW WINDS AND REDUCED FETCH. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ALSO
TO STEADILY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CRASH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD SHAPE UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING. ARCTIC DOME
WILL BE SOMEWHAT STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT...AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 30 WEST...TO THE MID 20S
EAST.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS VERY DRY AIR MASS SUBJECT
TO HISTORY OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
INTO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
WAVE...AND THEN WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE 06Z-18Z
TIMEFRAME. MID/UPPER FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
GIVEN BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE TO THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH BUT
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOWARD THE 06Z TIMEFRAME. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS POTENTIAL
OF SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WARM LAYER
ALOFT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER 06Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY ALTHOUGH INITIALLY
THE VERY DRY NATURE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OFFERS SOME LOWER
CONFIDENCE REGARDING ONSET TIME AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. GIVEN STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND AT LEAST WEAK
MID/UPPER FORCING HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TRENDS TO HIGHER POPS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD. PERIOD OF GREATEST
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/AMOUNTS AND BEING A LATE 2ND PERIOD POTENTIAL EVENT...WILL
LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR HEADLINES FURTHER. PLUME OF
RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT IN WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT (GENERALLY
LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH)...MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY
WEAKER CONVECTIVE RESPONSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY FOR ANY
LOCALIZED HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.

PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERWHELMS PROFILES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH EVEN FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS TO LIQUID PRECIP TYPE BY 14 OR 15Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WET/WARMER THIS WEEKEND/MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY COLD WX
THEREAFTER....

ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER JET WORKING EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN ZONAL FLOW MAY KEEP AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AROUND INTO SATURDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SFC WARMS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER RAINFALL
ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SRN STREAM PV ANOMALY (NOW OVER SRN CA)
LIFTS NNE THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO WAVE,
PHASING/STRENGTHENING OF UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING
PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH, AND GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS WITH MODELS AGREEING ON SFC REFLECTION TRACK
NNE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES. AT LEAST THE WESTERLY
TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME.

THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH CONSOLIDATES INTO THE EASTERN US BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THIS NEXT COLD BLAST
(ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS THIS PAST WEEK) WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH
ON MONDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED LATE MORNING-AFTN. FRONTAL
WAVE/MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUES TO SHOW UP IN BULK OF GUIDANCE
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) TO
BLOSSOM/EXPAND NE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CAA/CYCLONIC
FLOW SCT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CAN EXPECTED WITHIN TROUGH AXIS LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ACCUMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS LOWER MI/FAR NRN IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO COME TO AN END. MUCH OF THESE
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KSBN WITH JUST LAKE
EFFECT LOW CLOUD CIGS OF 4-5K FT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SFC ANTICYCLONE FROM THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD...WILL
NEED TO ADDRESS -FZRA POTENTIAL IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME DUE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND SHALLOW COLD AIR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 210551
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1251 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. CLEARING
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL YIELD CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

IN LIGHT OF CONTD SEVERE DRY ENTRAINMENT AND GROWING OBSVD SIG SFC TD
DEPRESSIONS NOTED ACRS SW MI HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL ADVISORY EARLY.
IN FACT MUCH OF REMAINING SHSN HAVE DEVOLVED INTO ISOLD FLURRIES
AND W/WKNG SFC GRADIENT BLOWING SNOW SHLD NOT BE AN ISSUE EITHER
GOING FWD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS SEVERELY LIMITED OVERALL INTENSITY AND
ORGANIZATION OF LAKE EFFECT BANDS RESULTING IN ONLY SPORADIC
REPORTS OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE PREVIOUS HEADLINE AREAS. THIS
IS DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY AND A NORMALLY FAVORABLE FETCH.
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS INCREASED AND ANYONE FORTUNATE ENOUGH
TO GET UNDER ONE WILL SEE A RAPID DROP IN VISIBILITY FOR A SHORT
PERIOD BUT LITTLE OVER ALL ACCUMULATION. GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS
WAS CONSIDERING DROPPING ALL HEADLINES. HOWEVER...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO PERSIST
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL OPT TO DOWNGRADE THE WARNING
TO AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH LOCAL 1 TO AT MOST 2 INCH ACCUMS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH MAY EVEN END UP TOO HIGH IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. AWAY FROM THE LAKE...DIURNAL CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
AND LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH READING
AWAY FROM ANY CLOUD COVER DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA ALLOWING WINDS TO FINALLY BECOME MORE SW AND MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTER IN AS WELL AS LOWERING INVERSION HGTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE DEMISE OF ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
SUNSHINE TRIES TO DOMINATE. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
START TO MOVE INTO SW AREAS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR LIQUID PRECIP INTO THE LONG TERM. HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE MID TO
MAYBE UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FEW CHANGES AND CONTINUED FORECAST FOCUS ON WEEKEND PTYPE/AMOUNTS.
CONTINUED CONCERN THAT EMPHATIC WARMING/DEEPENING THERMAL/WET BULB
PROFILES ALOFT TO PRECEDE BULK OF INITIAL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT AM...WITH CONTINUED HIGH 950-900 MB LAYER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO GNAW AT LEADING EDGE...KEEPING
BULK OF LIQUID HYDROMETEORS MOSTLY ALOFT. CANT RULE OUT MINOR ZR
EVENT AT ONSET...THOUGH HAVE LOCKED DOWN TEMPORAL WINDOW TO
PRIMARILY 09-12 UTC SAT WINDOW PER CONSENSUS ARW/NMM FOR WRN HALF
CWA...AS WARM ADVECTION SURGE PER VEERED STRENGTHENING PROFILES
APPEAR SYN OPTICALLY ASSURED. ATTM ANTICIPATE ICING TO BE SPOTTY AND
BRIEF IN NATURE WITH OVERALL PROBABILITIES MUTED OVER EGREGIOUSLY
WET BLEND. BETTER/RENEWED MOISTURE SURGE WITH WRN TRACKED SYSTEM
LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH MS VLY/WRN GRTLKS ESPCLY SUN/SUN NIGHT.
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SUPPORT WITH SLOWING EWD
FRONTAL PROGRESS AS SYSTEM LIFTS FROM NERN TX SUN, AND INTO MID/UPR
OH VLY SUN NIGHT. SLIGHTLY DLAY OF DEEPER POST FRONTAL CAA RESULTING
IN LATER TIMING OF SHIFT TO RASN MIX NOW TO MON AFTN...AND
EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY MON NIGHT. CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
LAGGED LAKE AGGREGATE TROF AND MODERATE THERMAL INSTABILITY
SUPPORT WITH LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS TO UPPER TEENS SUGGEST CONTD HIGH
LES POPS TUE/TUE NIGHT. HEREAFTER GFS LARGELY DISCOUNTED/OUT OF
PHASE WITH GFS WRT LONGWAVE PATTERN. STRONG EPAC RIDGING PER ECMWF
WITH PLAINS TROFFING PORTENDING OF OHIO VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS
FRONTOGENESIS AND POTNL SNOW EVENT WITHIN REALM OF POSSIBILITIES
RAMPING UPWARDS FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AT LEAST SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO COME TO AN END. MUCH OF THESE
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KSBN WITH JUST LAKE
EFFECT LOW CLOUD CIGS OF 4-5K FT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SFC ANTICYCLONE FROM THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD...WILL
NEED TO ADDRESS -FZRA POTENTIAL IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME DUE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND SHALLOW COLD AIR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 210551
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1251 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. CLEARING
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL YIELD CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

IN LIGHT OF CONTD SEVERE DRY ENTRAINMENT AND GROWING OBSVD SIG SFC TD
DEPRESSIONS NOTED ACRS SW MI HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL ADVISORY EARLY.
IN FACT MUCH OF REMAINING SHSN HAVE DEVOLVED INTO ISOLD FLURRIES
AND W/WKNG SFC GRADIENT BLOWING SNOW SHLD NOT BE AN ISSUE EITHER
GOING FWD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS SEVERELY LIMITED OVERALL INTENSITY AND
ORGANIZATION OF LAKE EFFECT BANDS RESULTING IN ONLY SPORADIC
REPORTS OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE PREVIOUS HEADLINE AREAS. THIS
IS DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY AND A NORMALLY FAVORABLE FETCH.
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS INCREASED AND ANYONE FORTUNATE ENOUGH
TO GET UNDER ONE WILL SEE A RAPID DROP IN VISIBILITY FOR A SHORT
PERIOD BUT LITTLE OVER ALL ACCUMULATION. GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS
WAS CONSIDERING DROPPING ALL HEADLINES. HOWEVER...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO PERSIST
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL OPT TO DOWNGRADE THE WARNING
TO AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH LOCAL 1 TO AT MOST 2 INCH ACCUMS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH MAY EVEN END UP TOO HIGH IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. AWAY FROM THE LAKE...DIURNAL CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
AND LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH READING
AWAY FROM ANY CLOUD COVER DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA ALLOWING WINDS TO FINALLY BECOME MORE SW AND MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTER IN AS WELL AS LOWERING INVERSION HGTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE DEMISE OF ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
SUNSHINE TRIES TO DOMINATE. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
START TO MOVE INTO SW AREAS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR LIQUID PRECIP INTO THE LONG TERM. HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE MID TO
MAYBE UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FEW CHANGES AND CONTINUED FORECAST FOCUS ON WEEKEND PTYPE/AMOUNTS.
CONTINUED CONCERN THAT EMPHATIC WARMING/DEEPENING THERMAL/WET BULB
PROFILES ALOFT TO PRECEDE BULK OF INITIAL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT AM...WITH CONTINUED HIGH 950-900 MB LAYER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO GNAW AT LEADING EDGE...KEEPING
BULK OF LIQUID HYDROMETEORS MOSTLY ALOFT. CANT RULE OUT MINOR ZR
EVENT AT ONSET...THOUGH HAVE LOCKED DOWN TEMPORAL WINDOW TO
PRIMARILY 09-12 UTC SAT WINDOW PER CONSENSUS ARW/NMM FOR WRN HALF
CWA...AS WARM ADVECTION SURGE PER VEERED STRENGTHENING PROFILES
APPEAR SYN OPTICALLY ASSURED. ATTM ANTICIPATE ICING TO BE SPOTTY AND
BRIEF IN NATURE WITH OVERALL PROBABILITIES MUTED OVER EGREGIOUSLY
WET BLEND. BETTER/RENEWED MOISTURE SURGE WITH WRN TRACKED SYSTEM
LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH MS VLY/WRN GRTLKS ESPCLY SUN/SUN NIGHT.
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SUPPORT WITH SLOWING EWD
FRONTAL PROGRESS AS SYSTEM LIFTS FROM NERN TX SUN, AND INTO MID/UPR
OH VLY SUN NIGHT. SLIGHTLY DLAY OF DEEPER POST FRONTAL CAA RESULTING
IN LATER TIMING OF SHIFT TO RASN MIX NOW TO MON AFTN...AND
EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY MON NIGHT. CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
LAGGED LAKE AGGREGATE TROF AND MODERATE THERMAL INSTABILITY
SUPPORT WITH LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS TO UPPER TEENS SUGGEST CONTD HIGH
LES POPS TUE/TUE NIGHT. HEREAFTER GFS LARGELY DISCOUNTED/OUT OF
PHASE WITH GFS WRT LONGWAVE PATTERN. STRONG EPAC RIDGING PER ECMWF
WITH PLAINS TROFFING PORTENDING OF OHIO VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS
FRONTOGENESIS AND POTNL SNOW EVENT WITHIN REALM OF POSSIBILITIES
RAMPING UPWARDS FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AT LEAST SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO COME TO AN END. MUCH OF THESE
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KSBN WITH JUST LAKE
EFFECT LOW CLOUD CIGS OF 4-5K FT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SFC ANTICYCLONE FROM THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD...WILL
NEED TO ADDRESS -FZRA POTENTIAL IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME DUE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND SHALLOW COLD AIR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 202332
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
632 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. CLEARING
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL YIELD CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

IN LIGHT OF CONTD SEVERE DRY ENTRAINMENT AND GROWING OBSVD SIG SFC TD
DEPRESSIONS NOTED ACRS SW MI HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL ADVISORY EARLY.
IN FACT MUCH OF REMAINING SHSN HAVE DEVOLVED INTO ISOLD FLURRIES
AND W/WKNG SFC GRADIENT BLOWING SNOW SHLD NOT BE AN ISSUE EITHER
GOING FWD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS SEVERELY LIMITED OVERALL INTENSITY AND
ORGANIZATION OF LAKE EFFECT BANDS RESULTING IN ONLY SPORADIC
REPORTS OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE PREVIOUS HEADLINE AREAS. THIS
IS DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY AND A NORMALLY FAVORABLE FETCH.
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS INCREASED AND ANYONE FORTUNATE ENOUGH
TO GET UNDER ONE WILL SEE A RAPID DROP IN VISIBILITY FOR A SHORT
PERIOD BUT LITTLE OVER ALL ACCUMULATION. GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS
WAS CONSIDERING DROPPING ALL HEADLINES. HOWEVER...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO PERSIST
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL OPT TO DOWNGRADE THE WARNING
TO AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH LOCAL 1 TO AT MOST 2 INCH ACCUMS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH MAY EVEN END UP TOO HIGH IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. AWAY FROM THE LAKE...DIURNAL CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
AND LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH READING
AWAY FROM ANY CLOUD COVER DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA ALLOWING WINDS TO FINALLY BECOME MORE SW AND MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTER IN AS WELL AS LOWERING INVERSION HGTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE DEMISE OF ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
SUNSHINE TRIES TO DOMINATE. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
START TO MOVE INTO SW AREAS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR LIQUID PRECIP INTO THE LONG TERM. HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE MID TO
MAYBE UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FEW CHANGES AND CONTINUED FORECAST FOCUS ON WEEKEND PTYPE/AMOUNTS.
CONTINUED CONCERN THAT EMPHATIC WARMING/DEEPENING THERMAL/WET BULB
PROFILES ALOFT TO PRECEDE BULK OF INITIAL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT AM...WITH CONTINUED HIGH 950-900 MB LAYER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO GNAW AT LEADING EDGE...KEEPING
BULK OF LIQUID HYDROMETEORS MOSTLY ALOFT. CANT RULE OUT MINOR ZR
EVENT AT ONSET...THOUGH HAVE LOCKED DOWN TEMPORAL WINDOW TO
PRIMARILY 09-12 UTC SAT WINDOW PER CONSENSUS ARW/NMM FOR WRN HALF
CWA...AS WARM ADVECTION SURGE PER VEERED STRENGTHENING PROFILES
APPEAR SYN OPTICALLY ASSURED. ATTM ANTICIPATE ICING TO BE SPOTTY AND
BRIEF IN NATURE WITH OVERALL PROBABILITIES MUTED OVER EGREGIOUSLY
WET BLEND. BETTER/RENEWED MOISTURE SURGE WITH WRN TRACKED SYSTEM
LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH MS VLY/WRN GRTLKS ESPCLY SUN/SUN NIGHT.
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SUPPORT WITH SLOWING EWD
FRONTAL PROGRESS AS SYSTEM LIFTS FROM NERN TX SUN, AND INTO MID/UPR
OH VLY SUN NIGHT. SLIGHTLY DLAY OF DEEPER POST FRONTAL CAA RESULTING
IN LATER TIMING OF SHIFT TO RASN MIX NOW TO MON AFTN...AND
EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY MON NIGHT. CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
LAGGED LAKE AGGREGATE TROF AND MODERATE THERMAL INSTABILITY
SUPPORT WITH LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS TO UPPER TEENS SUGGEST CONTD HIGH
LES POPS TUE/TUE NIGHT. HEREAFTER GFS LARGELY DISCOUNTED/OUT OF
PHASE WITH GFS WRT LONGWAVE PATTERN. STRONG EPAC RIDGING PER ECMWF
WITH PLAINS TROFFING PORTENDING OF OHIO VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS
FRONTOGENESIS AND POTNL SNOW EVENT WITHIN REALM OF POSSIBILITIES
RAMPING UPWARDS FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AT LEAST SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD. SRN EDGE OF LK EFFECT HAD ERODED
OUT QUICKLY THIS EVENING DUE TO STG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND SW
DISTURBANCE EJECTING THROUGH WRN QB AND SVR LL DRY ENTRAINMENT IN
ASSOCN/W SFC RIDGE BLDG INTO THE WRN OH VALLEY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 202332
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
632 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. CLEARING
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL YIELD CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

IN LIGHT OF CONTD SEVERE DRY ENTRAINMENT AND GROWING OBSVD SIG SFC TD
DEPRESSIONS NOTED ACRS SW MI HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL ADVISORY EARLY.
IN FACT MUCH OF REMAINING SHSN HAVE DEVOLVED INTO ISOLD FLURRIES
AND W/WKNG SFC GRADIENT BLOWING SNOW SHLD NOT BE AN ISSUE EITHER
GOING FWD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS SEVERELY LIMITED OVERALL INTENSITY AND
ORGANIZATION OF LAKE EFFECT BANDS RESULTING IN ONLY SPORADIC
REPORTS OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE PREVIOUS HEADLINE AREAS. THIS
IS DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY AND A NORMALLY FAVORABLE FETCH.
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS INCREASED AND ANYONE FORTUNATE ENOUGH
TO GET UNDER ONE WILL SEE A RAPID DROP IN VISIBILITY FOR A SHORT
PERIOD BUT LITTLE OVER ALL ACCUMULATION. GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS
WAS CONSIDERING DROPPING ALL HEADLINES. HOWEVER...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO PERSIST
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL OPT TO DOWNGRADE THE WARNING
TO AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH LOCAL 1 TO AT MOST 2 INCH ACCUMS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH MAY EVEN END UP TOO HIGH IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. AWAY FROM THE LAKE...DIURNAL CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
AND LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH READING
AWAY FROM ANY CLOUD COVER DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA ALLOWING WINDS TO FINALLY BECOME MORE SW AND MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTER IN AS WELL AS LOWERING INVERSION HGTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE DEMISE OF ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
SUNSHINE TRIES TO DOMINATE. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
START TO MOVE INTO SW AREAS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR LIQUID PRECIP INTO THE LONG TERM. HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE MID TO
MAYBE UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FEW CHANGES AND CONTINUED FORECAST FOCUS ON WEEKEND PTYPE/AMOUNTS.
CONTINUED CONCERN THAT EMPHATIC WARMING/DEEPENING THERMAL/WET BULB
PROFILES ALOFT TO PRECEDE BULK OF INITIAL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT AM...WITH CONTINUED HIGH 950-900 MB LAYER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO GNAW AT LEADING EDGE...KEEPING
BULK OF LIQUID HYDROMETEORS MOSTLY ALOFT. CANT RULE OUT MINOR ZR
EVENT AT ONSET...THOUGH HAVE LOCKED DOWN TEMPORAL WINDOW TO
PRIMARILY 09-12 UTC SAT WINDOW PER CONSENSUS ARW/NMM FOR WRN HALF
CWA...AS WARM ADVECTION SURGE PER VEERED STRENGTHENING PROFILES
APPEAR SYN OPTICALLY ASSURED. ATTM ANTICIPATE ICING TO BE SPOTTY AND
BRIEF IN NATURE WITH OVERALL PROBABILITIES MUTED OVER EGREGIOUSLY
WET BLEND. BETTER/RENEWED MOISTURE SURGE WITH WRN TRACKED SYSTEM
LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH MS VLY/WRN GRTLKS ESPCLY SUN/SUN NIGHT.
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SUPPORT WITH SLOWING EWD
FRONTAL PROGRESS AS SYSTEM LIFTS FROM NERN TX SUN, AND INTO MID/UPR
OH VLY SUN NIGHT. SLIGHTLY DLAY OF DEEPER POST FRONTAL CAA RESULTING
IN LATER TIMING OF SHIFT TO RASN MIX NOW TO MON AFTN...AND
EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY MON NIGHT. CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
LAGGED LAKE AGGREGATE TROF AND MODERATE THERMAL INSTABILITY
SUPPORT WITH LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS TO UPPER TEENS SUGGEST CONTD HIGH
LES POPS TUE/TUE NIGHT. HEREAFTER GFS LARGELY DISCOUNTED/OUT OF
PHASE WITH GFS WRT LONGWAVE PATTERN. STRONG EPAC RIDGING PER ECMWF
WITH PLAINS TROFFING PORTENDING OF OHIO VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS
FRONTOGENESIS AND POTNL SNOW EVENT WITHIN REALM OF POSSIBILITIES
RAMPING UPWARDS FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AT LEAST SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD. SRN EDGE OF LK EFFECT HAD ERODED
OUT QUICKLY THIS EVENING DUE TO STG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND SW
DISTURBANCE EJECTING THROUGH WRN QB AND SVR LL DRY ENTRAINMENT IN
ASSOCN/W SFC RIDGE BLDG INTO THE WRN OH VALLEY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 202204
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
504 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE THE SUN...HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE THE
MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

IN LIGHT OF CONTD SEVERE DRY ENTRAINMENT AND GROWING OBSVD SIG SFC TD
DEPRESSIONS NOTED ACRS SW MI HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL ADVISORY EARLY.
IN FACT MUCH OF REMAINING SHSN HAVE DEVOLVED INTO ISOLD FLURRIES
AND W/WKNG SFC GRADIENT BLOWING SNOW SHLD NOT BE AN ISSUE EITHER
GOING FWD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS SEVERELY LIMITED OVERALL INTENSITY AND
ORGANIZATION OF LAKE EFFECT BANDS RESULTING IN ONLY SPORADIC
REPORTS OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE PREVIOUS HEADLINE AREAS. THIS
IS DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY AND A NORMALLY FAVORABLE FETCH.
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS INCREASED AND ANYONE FORTUNATE ENOUGH
TO GET UNDER ONE WILL SEE A RAPID DROP IN VISIBILITY FOR A SHORT
PERIOD BUT LITTLE OVER ALL ACCUMULATION. GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS
WAS CONSIDERING DROPPING ALL HEADLINES. HOWEVER...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO PERSIST
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL OPT TO DOWNGRADE THE WARNING
TO AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH LOCAL 1 TO AT MOST 2 INCH ACCUMS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH MAY EVEN END UP TOO HIGH IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. AWAY FROM THE LAKE...DIURNAL CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
AND LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH READING
AWAY FROM ANY CLOUD COVER DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA ALLOWING WINDS TO FINALLY BECOME MORE SW AND MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTER IN AS WELL AS LOWERING INVERSION HGTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE DEMISE OF ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
SUNSHINE TRIES TO DOMINATE. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
START TO MOVE INTO SW AREAS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR LIQUID PRECIP INTO THE LONG TERM. HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE MID TO
MAYBE UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FEW CHANGES AND CONTINUED FORECAST FOCUS ON WEEKEND PTYPE/AMOUNTS.
CONTINUED CONCERN THAT EMPHATIC WARMING/DEEPENING THERMAL/WET BULB
PROFILES ALOFT TO PRECEDE BULK OF INITIAL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT AM...WITH CONTINUED HIGH 950-900 MB LAYER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO GNAW AT LEADING EDGE...KEEPING
BULK OF LIQUID HYDROMETEORS MOSTLY ALOFT. CANT RULE OUT MINOR ZR
EVENT AT ONSET...THOUGH HAVE LOCKED DOWN TEMPORAL WINDOW TO
PRIMARILY 09-12 UTC SAT WINDOW PER CONSENSUS ARW/NMM FOR WRN HALF
CWA...AS WARM ADVECTION SURGE PER VEERED STRENGTHENING PROFILES
APPEAR SYNOPTICALLY ASSURED. ATTM ANTICIPATE ICING TO BE SPOTTY AND
BRIEF IN NATURE WITH OVERALL PROBABILITIES MUTED OVER EGREGIOUSLY
WET BLEND. BETTER/RENEWED MOISTURE SURGE WITH WRN TRACKED SYSTEM
LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH MS VLY/WRN GRTLKS ESPCLY SUN/SUN NIGHT.
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SUPPORT WITH SLOWING EWD
FRONTAL PROGRESS AS SYSTEM LIFTS FROM NERN TX SUN, AND INTO MID/UPR
OH VLY SUN NIGHT. SLIGHTLY DLAY OF DEEPER POST FRONTAL CAA RESULTING
IN LATER TIMING OF SHIFT TO RASN MIX NOW TO MON AFTN...AND
EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY MON NIGHT. CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
LAGGED LAKE AGGREGATE TROF AND MODERATE THERMAL INSTABILITY
SUPPORT WITH LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS TO UPPER TEENS SUGGEST CONTD HIGH
LES POPS TUE/TUE NIGHT. HEREAFTER GFS LARGELY DISCOUNTED/OUT OF
PHASE WITH GFS WRT LONGWAVE PATTERN. STRONG EPAC RIDGING PER ECMWF
WITH PLAINS TROFFING PORTENDING OF OHIO VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS
FRONTOGENESIS AND POTNL SNOW EVENT WITHIN REALM OF POSSIBILITIES
RAMPING UPWARDS FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AT LEAST SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

KSBN STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO MISS THE BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL INTO THIS EVENING AS FLOW GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH INTO MICHIGAN. RADAR/SFC OBS WAS SHOWING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE AIRPORT AT THIS TIME.
TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST COVERAGE MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND MINOR SHIFT IN THE FLOW TO ALLOW PERIODIC
MVFR EXCURSIONS AT THE SITE. KFWA WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

ANY LAKE EFFECT AT KSBN SHOULD WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH NO FLGT
ISSUES EXPECTED BY MORNING.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 202204
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
504 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE THE SUN...HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE THE
MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

IN LIGHT OF CONTD SEVERE DRY ENTRAINMENT AND GROWING OBSVD SIG SFC TD
DEPRESSIONS NOTED ACRS SW MI HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL ADVISORY EARLY.
IN FACT MUCH OF REMAINING SHSN HAVE DEVOLVED INTO ISOLD FLURRIES
AND W/WKNG SFC GRADIENT BLOWING SNOW SHLD NOT BE AN ISSUE EITHER
GOING FWD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS SEVERELY LIMITED OVERALL INTENSITY AND
ORGANIZATION OF LAKE EFFECT BANDS RESULTING IN ONLY SPORADIC
REPORTS OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE PREVIOUS HEADLINE AREAS. THIS
IS DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY AND A NORMALLY FAVORABLE FETCH.
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS INCREASED AND ANYONE FORTUNATE ENOUGH
TO GET UNDER ONE WILL SEE A RAPID DROP IN VISIBILITY FOR A SHORT
PERIOD BUT LITTLE OVER ALL ACCUMULATION. GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS
WAS CONSIDERING DROPPING ALL HEADLINES. HOWEVER...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO PERSIST
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL OPT TO DOWNGRADE THE WARNING
TO AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH LOCAL 1 TO AT MOST 2 INCH ACCUMS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH MAY EVEN END UP TOO HIGH IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. AWAY FROM THE LAKE...DIURNAL CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
AND LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH READING
AWAY FROM ANY CLOUD COVER DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA ALLOWING WINDS TO FINALLY BECOME MORE SW AND MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTER IN AS WELL AS LOWERING INVERSION HGTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE DEMISE OF ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
SUNSHINE TRIES TO DOMINATE. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
START TO MOVE INTO SW AREAS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR LIQUID PRECIP INTO THE LONG TERM. HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE MID TO
MAYBE UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FEW CHANGES AND CONTINUED FORECAST FOCUS ON WEEKEND PTYPE/AMOUNTS.
CONTINUED CONCERN THAT EMPHATIC WARMING/DEEPENING THERMAL/WET BULB
PROFILES ALOFT TO PRECEDE BULK OF INITIAL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT AM...WITH CONTINUED HIGH 950-900 MB LAYER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO GNAW AT LEADING EDGE...KEEPING
BULK OF LIQUID HYDROMETEORS MOSTLY ALOFT. CANT RULE OUT MINOR ZR
EVENT AT ONSET...THOUGH HAVE LOCKED DOWN TEMPORAL WINDOW TO
PRIMARILY 09-12 UTC SAT WINDOW PER CONSENSUS ARW/NMM FOR WRN HALF
CWA...AS WARM ADVECTION SURGE PER VEERED STRENGTHENING PROFILES
APPEAR SYNOPTICALLY ASSURED. ATTM ANTICIPATE ICING TO BE SPOTTY AND
BRIEF IN NATURE WITH OVERALL PROBABILITIES MUTED OVER EGREGIOUSLY
WET BLEND. BETTER/RENEWED MOISTURE SURGE WITH WRN TRACKED SYSTEM
LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH MS VLY/WRN GRTLKS ESPCLY SUN/SUN NIGHT.
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SUPPORT WITH SLOWING EWD
FRONTAL PROGRESS AS SYSTEM LIFTS FROM NERN TX SUN, AND INTO MID/UPR
OH VLY SUN NIGHT. SLIGHTLY DLAY OF DEEPER POST FRONTAL CAA RESULTING
IN LATER TIMING OF SHIFT TO RASN MIX NOW TO MON AFTN...AND
EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY MON NIGHT. CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
LAGGED LAKE AGGREGATE TROF AND MODERATE THERMAL INSTABILITY
SUPPORT WITH LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS TO UPPER TEENS SUGGEST CONTD HIGH
LES POPS TUE/TUE NIGHT. HEREAFTER GFS LARGELY DISCOUNTED/OUT OF
PHASE WITH GFS WRT LONGWAVE PATTERN. STRONG EPAC RIDGING PER ECMWF
WITH PLAINS TROFFING PORTENDING OF OHIO VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS
FRONTOGENESIS AND POTNL SNOW EVENT WITHIN REALM OF POSSIBILITIES
RAMPING UPWARDS FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AT LEAST SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

KSBN STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO MISS THE BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL INTO THIS EVENING AS FLOW GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH INTO MICHIGAN. RADAR/SFC OBS WAS SHOWING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE AIRPORT AT THIS TIME.
TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST COVERAGE MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND MINOR SHIFT IN THE FLOW TO ALLOW PERIODIC
MVFR EXCURSIONS AT THE SITE. KFWA WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

ANY LAKE EFFECT AT KSBN SHOULD WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH NO FLGT
ISSUES EXPECTED BY MORNING.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 202103
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
403 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE THE SUN...HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE THE
MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS SEVERELY LIMITED OVERALL INTENSITY AND
ORGANIZATION OF LAKE EFFECT BANDS RESULTING IN ONLY SPORADIC
REPORTS OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE PREVIOUS HEADLINE AREAS. THIS
IS DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY AND A NORMALLY FAVORABLE FETCH.
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS INCREASED AND ANYONE FORTUNATE ENOUGH
TO GET UNDER ONE WILL SEE A RAPID DROP IN VISIBILITY FOR A SHORT
PERIOD BUT LITTLE OVER ALL ACCUMULATION. GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS
WAS CONSIDERING DROPPING ALL HEADLINES. HOWEVER...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO PERSIST
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL OPT TO DOWNGRADE THE WARNING
TO AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH LOCAL 1 TO AT MOST 2 INCH ACCUMS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH MAY EVEN END UP TOO HIGH IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. AWAY FROM THE LAKE...DIURNAL CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
AND LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH READING
AWAY FROM ANY CLOUD COVER DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA ALLOWING WINDS TO FINALLY BECOME MORE SW AND MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTER IN AS WELL AS LOWERING INVERSION HGTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE DEMISE OF ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
SUNSHINE TRIES TO DOMINATE. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
START TO MOVE INTO SW AREAS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR LIQUID PRECIP INTO THE LONG TERM. HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE MID TO
MAYBE UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FEW CHANGES AND CONTINUED FORECAST FOCUS ON WEEKEND PTYPE/AMOUNTS.
CONTINUED CONCERN THAT EMPHATIC WARMING/DEEPENING THERMAL/WET BULB
PROFILES ALOFT TO PRECEDE BULK OF INITIAL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT AM...WITH CONTINUED HIGH 950-900 MB LAYER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO GNAW AT LEADING EDGE...KEEPING
BULK OF LIQUID HYDROMETEORS MOSTLY ALOFT. CANT RULE OUT MINOR ZR
EVENT AT ONSET...THOUGH HAVE LOCKED DOWN TEMPORAL WINDOW TO
PRIMARILY 09-12 UTC SAT WINDOW PER CONSENSUS ARW/NMM FOR WRN HALF
CWA...AS WARM ADVECTION SURGE PER VEERED STRENGTHENING PROFILES
APPEAR SYNOPTICALLY ASSURED. ATTM ANTICIPATE ICING TO BE SPOTTY AND
BRIEF IN NATURE WITH OVERALL PROBABILITIES MUTED OVER EGREGIOUSLY
WET BLEND. BETTER/RENEWED MOISTURE SURGE WITH WRN TRACKED SYSTEM
LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH MS VLY/WRN GRTLKS ESPCLY SUN/SUN NIGHT.
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SUPPORT WITH SLOWING EWD
FRONTAL PROGRESS AS SYSTEM LIFTS FROM NERN TX SUN, AND INTO MID/UPR
OH VLY SUN NIGHT. SLIGHTLY DLAY OF DEEPER POST FRONTAL CAA RESULTING
IN LATER TIMING OF SHIFT TO RASN MIX NOW TO MON AFTN...AND
EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY MON NIGHT. CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
LAGGED LAKE AGGREGATE TROF AND MODERATE THERMAL INSTABILITY
SUPPORT WITH LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS TO UPPER TEENS SUGGEST CONTD HIGH
LES POPS TUE/TUE NIGHT. HEREAFTER GFS LARGELY DISCOUNTED/OUT OF
PHASE WITH GFS WRT LONGWAVE PATTERN. STRONG EPAC RIDGING PER ECMWF
WITH PLAINS TROFFING PORTENDING OF OHIO VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS
FRONTOGENESIS AND POTNL SNOW EVENT WITHIN REALM OF POSSIBILITIES
RAMPING UPWARDS FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AT LEAST SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

KSBN STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO MISS THE BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL INTO THIS EVENING AS FLOW GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH INTO MICHIGAN. RADAR/SFC OBS WAS SHOWING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE AIRPORT AT THIS TIME.
TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST COVERAGE MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND MINOR SHIFT IN THE FLOW TO ALLOW PERIODIC
MVFR EXCURSIONS AT THE SITE. KFWA WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

ANY LAKE EFFECT AT KSBN SHOULD WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH NO FLGT
ISSUES EXPECTED BY MORNING.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077>080.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 202103
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
403 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE THE SUN...HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE THE
MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS SEVERELY LIMITED OVERALL INTENSITY AND
ORGANIZATION OF LAKE EFFECT BANDS RESULTING IN ONLY SPORADIC
REPORTS OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE PREVIOUS HEADLINE AREAS. THIS
IS DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY AND A NORMALLY FAVORABLE FETCH.
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS INCREASED AND ANYONE FORTUNATE ENOUGH
TO GET UNDER ONE WILL SEE A RAPID DROP IN VISIBILITY FOR A SHORT
PERIOD BUT LITTLE OVER ALL ACCUMULATION. GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS
WAS CONSIDERING DROPPING ALL HEADLINES. HOWEVER...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO PERSIST
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL OPT TO DOWNGRADE THE WARNING
TO AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH LOCAL 1 TO AT MOST 2 INCH ACCUMS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH MAY EVEN END UP TOO HIGH IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. AWAY FROM THE LAKE...DIURNAL CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
AND LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH READING
AWAY FROM ANY CLOUD COVER DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA ALLOWING WINDS TO FINALLY BECOME MORE SW AND MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTER IN AS WELL AS LOWERING INVERSION HGTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE DEMISE OF ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
SUNSHINE TRIES TO DOMINATE. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
START TO MOVE INTO SW AREAS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR LIQUID PRECIP INTO THE LONG TERM. HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE MID TO
MAYBE UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FEW CHANGES AND CONTINUED FORECAST FOCUS ON WEEKEND PTYPE/AMOUNTS.
CONTINUED CONCERN THAT EMPHATIC WARMING/DEEPENING THERMAL/WET BULB
PROFILES ALOFT TO PRECEDE BULK OF INITIAL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT AM...WITH CONTINUED HIGH 950-900 MB LAYER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO GNAW AT LEADING EDGE...KEEPING
BULK OF LIQUID HYDROMETEORS MOSTLY ALOFT. CANT RULE OUT MINOR ZR
EVENT AT ONSET...THOUGH HAVE LOCKED DOWN TEMPORAL WINDOW TO
PRIMARILY 09-12 UTC SAT WINDOW PER CONSENSUS ARW/NMM FOR WRN HALF
CWA...AS WARM ADVECTION SURGE PER VEERED STRENGTHENING PROFILES
APPEAR SYNOPTICALLY ASSURED. ATTM ANTICIPATE ICING TO BE SPOTTY AND
BRIEF IN NATURE WITH OVERALL PROBABILITIES MUTED OVER EGREGIOUSLY
WET BLEND. BETTER/RENEWED MOISTURE SURGE WITH WRN TRACKED SYSTEM
LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH MS VLY/WRN GRTLKS ESPCLY SUN/SUN NIGHT.
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SUPPORT WITH SLOWING EWD
FRONTAL PROGRESS AS SYSTEM LIFTS FROM NERN TX SUN, AND INTO MID/UPR
OH VLY SUN NIGHT. SLIGHTLY DLAY OF DEEPER POST FRONTAL CAA RESULTING
IN LATER TIMING OF SHIFT TO RASN MIX NOW TO MON AFTN...AND
EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY MON NIGHT. CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
LAGGED LAKE AGGREGATE TROF AND MODERATE THERMAL INSTABILITY
SUPPORT WITH LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS TO UPPER TEENS SUGGEST CONTD HIGH
LES POPS TUE/TUE NIGHT. HEREAFTER GFS LARGELY DISCOUNTED/OUT OF
PHASE WITH GFS WRT LONGWAVE PATTERN. STRONG EPAC RIDGING PER ECMWF
WITH PLAINS TROFFING PORTENDING OF OHIO VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS
FRONTOGENESIS AND POTNL SNOW EVENT WITHIN REALM OF POSSIBILITIES
RAMPING UPWARDS FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AT LEAST SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

KSBN STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO MISS THE BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL INTO THIS EVENING AS FLOW GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH INTO MICHIGAN. RADAR/SFC OBS WAS SHOWING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE AIRPORT AT THIS TIME.
TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST COVERAGE MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND MINOR SHIFT IN THE FLOW TO ALLOW PERIODIC
MVFR EXCURSIONS AT THE SITE. KFWA WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

ANY LAKE EFFECT AT KSBN SHOULD WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH NO FLGT
ISSUES EXPECTED BY MORNING.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077>080.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 201745
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1245 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
AND FAR NORTHERN INDIANA. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHUT OFF TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 30 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HAVE DROPPED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR INDIANA COUNTIES...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN MICHIGAN HEADLINES FOR THE TIME BEING.

DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS SEVERELY LIMITED OVERALL STRENGTH AND
ORGANIZATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA. SURFACE FLOW INDICATED FAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE AIMED AT THE LOWER MI COUNTIES BUT THIS HAS SINCE
WEAKENED WITH A GENERAL WSW TO SW FLOW IN PLACE. BY FAR THE BEST
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOSER TO GRAND RAPIDS WHERE A STRONG BAND HAS PERSISTED
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
MAINLY CASS INTO ST JOE COUNTIES IN MI BUT HAVE HAD LITTLE IMPACT.
AS NOTED IN MORNING DISCUSSION...A SECONDARY WAVE WAS DROPPING
SOUTH OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND SHOULD ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING SOME EXPANSION AND ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND
ALSO A MORE SOUTHWARD SHIFT INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND
MAYBE NORTHERN INDIANA. EVEN WITH THIS OCCURRING...MAJOR CONCERNS
SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING FOR THE INDIANA COUNTIES UNDER THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE INDIANA COUNTIES WITH LOCAL ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR
2 POSSIBLE (LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE). ACROSS THE REMAINING
HEADLINE AREAS...COULD BE A CLOSE CALL ON FULL IMPACTS BEING
REALIZED. MAKING ANY FURTHER CHANGES TO HEADLINES DESPITE TRENDS
THUS FAR FOR THE EVENT WOULD BE PREMATURE GIVEN THIS AREA WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS INTO THIS EVENING.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LEFT UNCHANGED AS YET ANOTHER COLD DAY
WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER EVOLUTION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY NO IMMEDIATE PLANS
EARLY THIS MORNING TO CHANGE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/WINTER
STORM WARNING HEADLINES.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO ORGANIZE THROUGH
MUCH OF LAST EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT RISING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER AS LOW/MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AT 07Z DOES DEPICTS A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOSING
INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID MORNING. CHANNELED DPVA WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING DEPTH OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
INCREASING. WITH SOME VERY SUBTLE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...BULK OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MID
MORNING MAY NOT MAKE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESS FROM CURRENT
POSITIONING. MAIN TWEAK TO FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING WAS TO
REDUCE POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY MIDDAY...A SECONDARY UPPER VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING SHOULD DIG ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD YIELD A MORE FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR THE INDIANA PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH FETCH CONSIDERATIONS SHOULD FAVOR
NORTHERN BERRIEN...CASS COUNTY MICHIGAN....AND POSSIBLY INTO ST.
JOSEPH COUNTY MICHIGAN FOR THE GREATER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. SOME
COMPETING FACTORS PERSIST IN TERMS OF ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE EXACT
MAGNITUDES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AND WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST
TODAY. DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DOES APPEAR TO MAINTAIN SATURATION IN
THE 950-850 HPA LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD CO-LOCATION TO
SHALLOW BASED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. LAKE-700 THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS ALSO SHOULD HOVER INTO THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE CELSIUS
RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH MAXIMUM LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS IN THE LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY DRY LAYER ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WOULD
FALL INLINE MORE WITH WEAKER MULTIBAND EVENTS PER LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY
STUDIES. WILDCARD IN THIS SETUP DOES APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL POTENCY
OF SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED CHANNELED
VORTICITY ADVECTION LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
PROLONGED SETUP INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEVIATE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH PERHAPS THE GREATEST
PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS
CENTERED IN THE 18Z-00Z TIMEFRAME GIVEN SYNOPTIC FORCING/IMPROVING
FETCH. WILL CARRY 4 TO 7 INCH/LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMS FOR BERRIEN/CASS
IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING WITH SOME INCREASING CONCERNS OF THE
ROLE OF LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR CUTTING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THE
INDIANA WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES...WILL CARRY 2 TO 4 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS...FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INDIANA TOLL
ROAD...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES/LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR MICHIGAN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AREA (GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUMS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 69).

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS/INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING CONCERNS SLACKENING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FRIDAY AND END
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL AND AS WINDS BACK TO
THE SOUTH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE 925/850 LAYER AND SHOULD
SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST AREAS WHERE THE COLD AIR IS DEEPER. THE
MAX TEMPERATURE IN WARM LAYER SHOULD BE AT LEAST 3C WHERE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS AND SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW. A
RELATIVELY BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN SUBFREEZING GROUND TEMPS AND SURFACE TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. UP TO AN
INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER AN INCH. SOME CONCERN FOR
LOCAL FLOODING GIVEN FROZEN GROUND...MELTING SNOW COVER AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

KSBN STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO MISS THE BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL INTO THIS EVENING AS FLOW GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH INTO MICHIGAN. RADAR/SFC OBS WAS SHOWING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE AIRPORT AT THIS TIME.
TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST COVERAGE MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND MINOR SHIFT IN THE FLOW TO ALLOW PERIODIC
MVFR EXCURSIONS AT THE SITE. KFWA WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

ANY LAKE EFFECT AT KSBN SHOULD WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH NO FLGT
ISSUES EXPECTED BY MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077-078.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ079-080.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
UPDATE...FISHER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 201745
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1245 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
AND FAR NORTHERN INDIANA. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHUT OFF TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 30 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HAVE DROPPED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR INDIANA COUNTIES...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN MICHIGAN HEADLINES FOR THE TIME BEING.

DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS SEVERELY LIMITED OVERALL STRENGTH AND
ORGANIZATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA. SURFACE FLOW INDICATED FAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE AIMED AT THE LOWER MI COUNTIES BUT THIS HAS SINCE
WEAKENED WITH A GENERAL WSW TO SW FLOW IN PLACE. BY FAR THE BEST
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOSER TO GRAND RAPIDS WHERE A STRONG BAND HAS PERSISTED
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
MAINLY CASS INTO ST JOE COUNTIES IN MI BUT HAVE HAD LITTLE IMPACT.
AS NOTED IN MORNING DISCUSSION...A SECONDARY WAVE WAS DROPPING
SOUTH OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND SHOULD ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING SOME EXPANSION AND ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND
ALSO A MORE SOUTHWARD SHIFT INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND
MAYBE NORTHERN INDIANA. EVEN WITH THIS OCCURRING...MAJOR CONCERNS
SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING FOR THE INDIANA COUNTIES UNDER THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE INDIANA COUNTIES WITH LOCAL ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR
2 POSSIBLE (LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE). ACROSS THE REMAINING
HEADLINE AREAS...COULD BE A CLOSE CALL ON FULL IMPACTS BEING
REALIZED. MAKING ANY FURTHER CHANGES TO HEADLINES DESPITE TRENDS
THUS FAR FOR THE EVENT WOULD BE PREMATURE GIVEN THIS AREA WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS INTO THIS EVENING.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LEFT UNCHANGED AS YET ANOTHER COLD DAY
WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER EVOLUTION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY NO IMMEDIATE PLANS
EARLY THIS MORNING TO CHANGE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/WINTER
STORM WARNING HEADLINES.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO ORGANIZE THROUGH
MUCH OF LAST EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT RISING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER AS LOW/MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AT 07Z DOES DEPICTS A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOSING
INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID MORNING. CHANNELED DPVA WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING DEPTH OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
INCREASING. WITH SOME VERY SUBTLE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...BULK OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MID
MORNING MAY NOT MAKE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESS FROM CURRENT
POSITIONING. MAIN TWEAK TO FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING WAS TO
REDUCE POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY MIDDAY...A SECONDARY UPPER VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING SHOULD DIG ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD YIELD A MORE FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR THE INDIANA PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH FETCH CONSIDERATIONS SHOULD FAVOR
NORTHERN BERRIEN...CASS COUNTY MICHIGAN....AND POSSIBLY INTO ST.
JOSEPH COUNTY MICHIGAN FOR THE GREATER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. SOME
COMPETING FACTORS PERSIST IN TERMS OF ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE EXACT
MAGNITUDES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AND WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST
TODAY. DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DOES APPEAR TO MAINTAIN SATURATION IN
THE 950-850 HPA LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD CO-LOCATION TO
SHALLOW BASED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. LAKE-700 THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS ALSO SHOULD HOVER INTO THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE CELSIUS
RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH MAXIMUM LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS IN THE LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY DRY LAYER ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WOULD
FALL INLINE MORE WITH WEAKER MULTIBAND EVENTS PER LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY
STUDIES. WILDCARD IN THIS SETUP DOES APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL POTENCY
OF SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED CHANNELED
VORTICITY ADVECTION LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
PROLONGED SETUP INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEVIATE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH PERHAPS THE GREATEST
PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS
CENTERED IN THE 18Z-00Z TIMEFRAME GIVEN SYNOPTIC FORCING/IMPROVING
FETCH. WILL CARRY 4 TO 7 INCH/LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMS FOR BERRIEN/CASS
IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING WITH SOME INCREASING CONCERNS OF THE
ROLE OF LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR CUTTING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THE
INDIANA WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES...WILL CARRY 2 TO 4 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS...FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INDIANA TOLL
ROAD...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES/LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR MICHIGAN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AREA (GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUMS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 69).

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS/INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING CONCERNS SLACKENING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FRIDAY AND END
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL AND AS WINDS BACK TO
THE SOUTH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE 925/850 LAYER AND SHOULD
SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST AREAS WHERE THE COLD AIR IS DEEPER. THE
MAX TEMPERATURE IN WARM LAYER SHOULD BE AT LEAST 3C WHERE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS AND SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW. A
RELATIVELY BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN SUBFREEZING GROUND TEMPS AND SURFACE TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. UP TO AN
INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER AN INCH. SOME CONCERN FOR
LOCAL FLOODING GIVEN FROZEN GROUND...MELTING SNOW COVER AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

KSBN STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO MISS THE BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL INTO THIS EVENING AS FLOW GENERALLY SUPPORTS THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH INTO MICHIGAN. RADAR/SFC OBS WAS SHOWING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE AIRPORT AT THIS TIME.
TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST COVERAGE MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND MINOR SHIFT IN THE FLOW TO ALLOW PERIODIC
MVFR EXCURSIONS AT THE SITE. KFWA WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

ANY LAKE EFFECT AT KSBN SHOULD WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH NO FLGT
ISSUES EXPECTED BY MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077-078.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ079-080.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
UPDATE...FISHER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 201540
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1040 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
AND FAR NORTHERN INDIANA. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHUT OFF TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 30 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER EVOLUTION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY NO IMMEDIATE PLANS
EARLY THIS MORNING TO CHANGE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/WINTER
STORM WARNING HEADLINES.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO ORGANIZE THROUGH
MUCH OF LAST EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT RISING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER AS LOW/MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AT 07Z DOES DEPICTS A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOSING
INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID MORNING. CHANNELED DPVA WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING DEPTH OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
INCREASING. WITH SOME VERY SUBTLE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...BULK OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MID
MORNING MAY NOT MAKE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESS FROM CURRENT
POSITIONING. MAIN TWEAK TO FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING WAS TO
REDUCE POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY MIDDAY...A SECONDARY UPPER VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING SHOULD DIG ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD YIELD A MORE FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR THE INDIANA PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH FETCH CONSIDERATIONS SHOULD FAVOR
NORTHERN BERRIEN...CASS COUNTY MICHIGAN....AND POSSIBLY INTO ST.
JOSEPH COUNTY MICHIGAN FOR THE GREATER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. SOME
COMPETING FACTORS PERSIST IN TERMS OF ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE EXACT
MAGNITUDES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AND WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST
TODAY. DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DOES APPEAR TO MAINTAIN SATURATION IN
THE 950-850 HPA LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD CO-LOCATION TO
SHALLOW BASED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. LAKE-700 THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS ALSO SHOULD HOVER INTO THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE CELSIUS
RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH MAXIMUM LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS IN THE LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY DRY LAYER ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WOULD
FALL INLINE MORE WITH WEAKER MULTIBAND EVENTS PER LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY
STUDIES. WILDCARD IN THIS SETUP DOES APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL POTENCY
OF SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED CHANNELED
VORTICITY ADVECTION LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
PROLONGED SETUP INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEVIATE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH PERHAPS THE GREATEST
PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS
CENTERED IN THE 18Z-00Z TIMEFRAME GIVEN SYNOPTIC FORCING/IMPROVING
FETCH. WILL CARRY 4 TO 7 INCH/LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMS FOR BERRIEN/CASS
IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING WITH SOME INCREASING CONCERNS OF THE
ROLE OF LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR CUTTING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THE
INDIANA WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES...WILL CARRY 2 TO 4 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS...FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INDIANA TOLL
ROAD...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES/LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR MICHIGAN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AREA (GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUMS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 69).

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS/INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING CONCERNS SLACKENING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FRIDAY AND END
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL AND AS WINDS BACK TO
THE SOUTH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE 925/850 LAYER AND SHOULD
SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST AREAS WHERE THE COLD AIR IS DEEPER. THE
MAX TEMPERATURE IN WARM LAYER SHOULD BE AT LEAST 3C WHERE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS AND SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW. A
RELATIVELY BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN SUBFREEZING GROUND TEMPS AND SURFACE TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. UP TO AN
INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER AN INCH. SOME CONCERN FOR
LOCAL FLOODING GIVEN FROZEN GROUND...MELTING SNOW COVER AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

SOME SLIGHT BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF WESTERN GREAT LAKES UPPER WAVE HAS KEPT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF KSBN. INCREASING SYNOPTIC FORCING LATE
MORNING WITH THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH WINDS VEERING TO WEST
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
AT LEAST SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT KSBN THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO IFR VSBYS AT KSBN THIS AFTERNOON
BUT EXACT DETAILS REGARDING FETCH WILL BE CRITICAL FOR KSBN SNOW
SHOWER POTENTIAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT KFWA. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS BACK
INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077-078.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ079-080.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 201540
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1040 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
AND FAR NORTHERN INDIANA. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHUT OFF TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 30 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER EVOLUTION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY NO IMMEDIATE PLANS
EARLY THIS MORNING TO CHANGE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/WINTER
STORM WARNING HEADLINES.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO ORGANIZE THROUGH
MUCH OF LAST EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT RISING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER AS LOW/MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AT 07Z DOES DEPICTS A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOSING
INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID MORNING. CHANNELED DPVA WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING DEPTH OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
INCREASING. WITH SOME VERY SUBTLE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...BULK OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MID
MORNING MAY NOT MAKE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESS FROM CURRENT
POSITIONING. MAIN TWEAK TO FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING WAS TO
REDUCE POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY MIDDAY...A SECONDARY UPPER VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING SHOULD DIG ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD YIELD A MORE FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR THE INDIANA PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH FETCH CONSIDERATIONS SHOULD FAVOR
NORTHERN BERRIEN...CASS COUNTY MICHIGAN....AND POSSIBLY INTO ST.
JOSEPH COUNTY MICHIGAN FOR THE GREATER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. SOME
COMPETING FACTORS PERSIST IN TERMS OF ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE EXACT
MAGNITUDES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AND WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST
TODAY. DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DOES APPEAR TO MAINTAIN SATURATION IN
THE 950-850 HPA LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD CO-LOCATION TO
SHALLOW BASED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. LAKE-700 THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS ALSO SHOULD HOVER INTO THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE CELSIUS
RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH MAXIMUM LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS IN THE LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY DRY LAYER ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WOULD
FALL INLINE MORE WITH WEAKER MULTIBAND EVENTS PER LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY
STUDIES. WILDCARD IN THIS SETUP DOES APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL POTENCY
OF SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED CHANNELED
VORTICITY ADVECTION LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
PROLONGED SETUP INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEVIATE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH PERHAPS THE GREATEST
PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS
CENTERED IN THE 18Z-00Z TIMEFRAME GIVEN SYNOPTIC FORCING/IMPROVING
FETCH. WILL CARRY 4 TO 7 INCH/LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMS FOR BERRIEN/CASS
IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING WITH SOME INCREASING CONCERNS OF THE
ROLE OF LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR CUTTING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THE
INDIANA WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES...WILL CARRY 2 TO 4 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS...FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INDIANA TOLL
ROAD...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES/LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR MICHIGAN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AREA (GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUMS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 69).

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS/INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING CONCERNS SLACKENING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FRIDAY AND END
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL AND AS WINDS BACK TO
THE SOUTH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE 925/850 LAYER AND SHOULD
SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST AREAS WHERE THE COLD AIR IS DEEPER. THE
MAX TEMPERATURE IN WARM LAYER SHOULD BE AT LEAST 3C WHERE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS AND SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW. A
RELATIVELY BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN SUBFREEZING GROUND TEMPS AND SURFACE TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. UP TO AN
INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER AN INCH. SOME CONCERN FOR
LOCAL FLOODING GIVEN FROZEN GROUND...MELTING SNOW COVER AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

SOME SLIGHT BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF WESTERN GREAT LAKES UPPER WAVE HAS KEPT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF KSBN. INCREASING SYNOPTIC FORCING LATE
MORNING WITH THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH WINDS VEERING TO WEST
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
AT LEAST SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT KSBN THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO IFR VSBYS AT KSBN THIS AFTERNOON
BUT EXACT DETAILS REGARDING FETCH WILL BE CRITICAL FOR KSBN SNOW
SHOWER POTENTIAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT KFWA. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS BACK
INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077-078.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ079-080.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 201535
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1035 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL FAVOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER
TONIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HAVE DROPPED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR INDIANA COUNTIES...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN MICHIGAN HEADLINES FOR THE TIME BEING.

DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS SEVERELY LIMITED OVERALL STRENGTH AND
ORGANIZATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA. SURFACE FLOW INDICATED FAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE AIMED AT THE LOWER MI COUNTIES BUT THIS HAS SINCE
WEAKENED WITH A GENERAL WSW TO SW FLOW IN PLACE. BY FAR THE BEST
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOSER TO GRAND RAPIDS WHERE A STRONG BAND HAS PERSISTED
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
MAINLY CASS INTO ST JOE COUNTIES IN MI BUT HAVE HAD LITTLE IMPACT.
AS NOTED IN MORNING DISCUSSION...A SECONDARY WAVE WAS DROPPING
SOUTH OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND SHOULD ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING SOME EXPANSION AND ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND
ALSO A MORE SOUTHWARD SHIFT INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND
MAYBE NORTHERN INDIANA. EVEN WITH THIS OCCURRING...MAJOR CONCERNS
SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING FOR THE INDIANA COUNTIES UNDER THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE INDIANA COUNTIES WITH LOCAL ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR
2 POSSIBLE (LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE). ACROSS THE REMAINING
HEADLINE AREAS...COULD BE A CLOSE CALL ON FULL IMPACTS BEING
REALIZED. MAKING ANY FURTHER CHANGES TO HEADLINES DESPITE TRENDS
THUS FAR FOR THE EVENT WOULD BE PREMATURE GIVEN THIS AREA WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS INTO THIS EVENING.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LEFT UNCHANGED AS YET ANOTHER COLD DAY
WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER EVOLUTION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY NO IMMEDIATE PLANS
EARLY THIS MORNING TO CHANGE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/WINTER
STORM WARNING HEADLINES.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO ORGANIZE THROUGH
MUCH OF LAST EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT RISING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER AS LOW/MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AT 07Z DOES DEPICTS A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOSING
INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID MORNING. CHANNELED DPVA WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING DEPTH OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
INCREASING. WITH SOME VERY SUBTLE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...BULK OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MID
MORNING MAY NOT MAKE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESS FROM CURRENT
POSITIONING. MAIN TWEAK TO FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING WAS TO
REDUCE POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY MIDDAY...A SECONDARY UPPER VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING SHOULD DIG ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD YIELD A MORE FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR THE INDIANA PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH FETCH CONSIDERATIONS SHOULD FAVOR
NORTHERN BERRIEN...CASS COUNTY MICHIGAN....AND POSSIBLY INTO ST.
JOSEPH COUNTY MICHIGAN FOR THE GREATER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. SOME
COMPETING FACTORS PERSIST IN TERMS OF ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE EXACT
MAGNITUDES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AND WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST
TODAY. DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DOES APPEAR TO MAINTAIN SATURATION IN
THE 950-850 HPA LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD CO-LOCATION TO
SHALLOW BASED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. LAKE-700 THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS ALSO SHOULD HOVER INTO THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE CELSIUS
RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH MAXIMUM LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS IN THE LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY DRY LAYER ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WOULD
FALL INLINE MORE WITH WEAKER MULTIBAND EVENTS PER LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY
STUDIES. WILDCARD IN THIS SETUP DOES APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL POTENCY
OF SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED CHANNELED
VORTICITY ADVECTION LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
PROLONGED SETUP INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEVIATE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH PERHAPS THE GREATEST
PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS
CENTERED IN THE 18Z-00Z TIMEFRAME GIVEN SYNOPTIC FORCING/IMPROVING
FETCH. WILL CARRY 4 TO 7 INCH/LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMS FOR BERRIEN/CASS
IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING WITH SOME INCREASING CONCERNS OF THE
ROLE OF LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR CUTTING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THE
INDIANA WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES...WILL CARRY 2 TO 4 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS...FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INDIANA TOLL
ROAD...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES/LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR MICHIGAN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AREA (GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUMS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 69).

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS/INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING CONCERNS SLACKENING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FRIDAY AND END
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL AND AS WINDS BACK TO
THE SOUTH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE 925/850 LAYER AND SHOULD
SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST AREAS WHERE THE COLD AIR IS DEEPER. THE
MAX TEMPERATURE IN WARM LAYER SHOULD BE AT LEAST 3C WHERE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS AND SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW. A
RELATIVELY BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN SUBFREEZING GROUND TEMPS AND SURFACE TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. UP TO AN
INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER AN INCH. SOME CONCERN FOR
LOCAL FLOODING GIVEN FROZEN GROUND...MELTING SNOW COVER AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

SOME SLIGHT BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF WESTERN GREAT LAKES UPPER WAVE HAS KEPT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF KSBN. INCREASING SYNOPTIC FORCING LATE
MORNING WITH THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH WINDS VEERING TO WEST
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
AT LEAST SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT KSBN THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO IFR VSBYS AT KSBN THIS AFTERNOON
BUT EXACT DETAILS REGARDING FETCH WILL BE CRITICAL FOR KSBN SNOW
SHOWER POTENTIAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT KFWA. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS BACK
INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077-078.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ079-080.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 201535
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1035 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL FAVOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER
TONIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HAVE DROPPED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR INDIANA COUNTIES...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN MICHIGAN HEADLINES FOR THE TIME BEING.

DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS SEVERELY LIMITED OVERALL STRENGTH AND
ORGANIZATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA. SURFACE FLOW INDICATED FAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE AIMED AT THE LOWER MI COUNTIES BUT THIS HAS SINCE
WEAKENED WITH A GENERAL WSW TO SW FLOW IN PLACE. BY FAR THE BEST
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOSER TO GRAND RAPIDS WHERE A STRONG BAND HAS PERSISTED
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
MAINLY CASS INTO ST JOE COUNTIES IN MI BUT HAVE HAD LITTLE IMPACT.
AS NOTED IN MORNING DISCUSSION...A SECONDARY WAVE WAS DROPPING
SOUTH OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND SHOULD ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING SOME EXPANSION AND ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND
ALSO A MORE SOUTHWARD SHIFT INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND
MAYBE NORTHERN INDIANA. EVEN WITH THIS OCCURRING...MAJOR CONCERNS
SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING FOR THE INDIANA COUNTIES UNDER THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE INDIANA COUNTIES WITH LOCAL ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR
2 POSSIBLE (LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE). ACROSS THE REMAINING
HEADLINE AREAS...COULD BE A CLOSE CALL ON FULL IMPACTS BEING
REALIZED. MAKING ANY FURTHER CHANGES TO HEADLINES DESPITE TRENDS
THUS FAR FOR THE EVENT WOULD BE PREMATURE GIVEN THIS AREA WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS INTO THIS EVENING.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LEFT UNCHANGED AS YET ANOTHER COLD DAY
WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER EVOLUTION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY NO IMMEDIATE PLANS
EARLY THIS MORNING TO CHANGE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/WINTER
STORM WARNING HEADLINES.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO ORGANIZE THROUGH
MUCH OF LAST EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT RISING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER AS LOW/MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AT 07Z DOES DEPICTS A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOSING
INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID MORNING. CHANNELED DPVA WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING DEPTH OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
INCREASING. WITH SOME VERY SUBTLE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...BULK OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MID
MORNING MAY NOT MAKE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESS FROM CURRENT
POSITIONING. MAIN TWEAK TO FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING WAS TO
REDUCE POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY MIDDAY...A SECONDARY UPPER VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING SHOULD DIG ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD YIELD A MORE FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR THE INDIANA PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH FETCH CONSIDERATIONS SHOULD FAVOR
NORTHERN BERRIEN...CASS COUNTY MICHIGAN....AND POSSIBLY INTO ST.
JOSEPH COUNTY MICHIGAN FOR THE GREATER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. SOME
COMPETING FACTORS PERSIST IN TERMS OF ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE EXACT
MAGNITUDES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AND WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST
TODAY. DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DOES APPEAR TO MAINTAIN SATURATION IN
THE 950-850 HPA LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD CO-LOCATION TO
SHALLOW BASED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. LAKE-700 THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS ALSO SHOULD HOVER INTO THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE CELSIUS
RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH MAXIMUM LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS IN THE LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY DRY LAYER ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WOULD
FALL INLINE MORE WITH WEAKER MULTIBAND EVENTS PER LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY
STUDIES. WILDCARD IN THIS SETUP DOES APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL POTENCY
OF SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED CHANNELED
VORTICITY ADVECTION LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
PROLONGED SETUP INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEVIATE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH PERHAPS THE GREATEST
PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS
CENTERED IN THE 18Z-00Z TIMEFRAME GIVEN SYNOPTIC FORCING/IMPROVING
FETCH. WILL CARRY 4 TO 7 INCH/LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMS FOR BERRIEN/CASS
IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING WITH SOME INCREASING CONCERNS OF THE
ROLE OF LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR CUTTING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THE
INDIANA WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES...WILL CARRY 2 TO 4 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS...FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INDIANA TOLL
ROAD...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES/LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR MICHIGAN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AREA (GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUMS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 69).

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS/INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING CONCERNS SLACKENING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FRIDAY AND END
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL AND AS WINDS BACK TO
THE SOUTH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE 925/850 LAYER AND SHOULD
SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST AREAS WHERE THE COLD AIR IS DEEPER. THE
MAX TEMPERATURE IN WARM LAYER SHOULD BE AT LEAST 3C WHERE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS AND SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW. A
RELATIVELY BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN SUBFREEZING GROUND TEMPS AND SURFACE TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. UP TO AN
INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER AN INCH. SOME CONCERN FOR
LOCAL FLOODING GIVEN FROZEN GROUND...MELTING SNOW COVER AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

SOME SLIGHT BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF WESTERN GREAT LAKES UPPER WAVE HAS KEPT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF KSBN. INCREASING SYNOPTIC FORCING LATE
MORNING WITH THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH WINDS VEERING TO WEST
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
AT LEAST SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT KSBN THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO IFR VSBYS AT KSBN THIS AFTERNOON
BUT EXACT DETAILS REGARDING FETCH WILL BE CRITICAL FOR KSBN SNOW
SHOWER POTENTIAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT KFWA. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS BACK
INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077-078.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ079-080.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 201147
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
647 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL FAVOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER
TONIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER EVOLUTION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY NO IMMEDIATE PLANS
EARLY THIS MORNING TO CHANGE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/WINTER
STORM WARNING HEADLINES.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO ORGANIZE THROUGH
MUCH OF LAST EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT RISING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER AS LOW/MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AT 07Z DOES DEPICTS A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOSING
INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID MORNING. CHANNELED DPVA WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING DEPTH OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
INCREASING. WITH SOME VERY SUBTLE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...BULK OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MID
MORNING MAY NOT MAKE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESS FROM CURRENT
POSITIONING. MAIN TWEAK TO FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING WAS TO
REDUCE POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY MIDDAY...A SECONDARY UPPER VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING SHOULD DIG ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD YIELD A MORE FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR THE INDIANA PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH FETCH CONSIDERATIONS SHOULD FAVOR
NORTHERN BERRIEN...CASS COUNTY MICHIGAN....AND POSSIBLY INTO ST.
JOSEPH COUNTY MICHIGAN FOR THE GREATER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. SOME
COMPETING FACTORS PERSIST IN TERMS OF ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE EXACT
MAGNITUDES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AND WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST
TODAY. DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DOES APPEAR TO MAINTAIN SATURATION IN
THE 950-850 HPA LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD CO-LOCATION TO
SHALLOW BASED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. LAKE-700 THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS ALSO SHOULD HOVER INTO THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE CELSIUS
RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH MAXIMUM LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS IN THE LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY DRY LAYER ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WOULD
FALL INLINE MORE WITH WEAKER MULTIBAND EVENTS PER LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY
STUDIES. WILDCARD IN THIS SETUP DOES APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL POTENCY
OF SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED CHANNELED
VORTICITY ADVECTION LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
PROLONGED SETUP INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEVIATE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH PERHAPS THE GREATEST
PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS
CENTERED IN THE 18Z-00Z TIMEFRAME GIVEN SYNOPTIC FORCING/IMPROVING
FETCH. WILL CARRY 4 TO 7 INCH/LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMS FOR BERRIEN/CASS
IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING WITH SOME INCREASING CONCERNS OF THE
ROLE OF LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR CUTTING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THE
INDIANA WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES...WILL CARRY 2 TO 4 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS...FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INDIANA TOLL
ROAD...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES/LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR MICHIGAN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AREA (GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUMS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 69).

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS/INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING CONCERNS SLACKENING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FRIDAY AND END
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL AND AS WINDS BACK TO
THE SOUTH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE 925/850 LAYER AND SHOULD
SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST AREAS WHERE THE COLD AIR IS DEEPER. THE
MAX TEMPERATURE IN WARM LAYER SHOULD BE AT LEAST 3C WHERE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS AND SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW. A
RELATIVELY BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN SUBFREEZING GROUND TEMPS AND SURFACE TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. UP TO AN
INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER AN INCH. SOME CONCERN FOR
LOCAL FLOODING GIVEN FROZEN GROUND...MELTING SNOW COVER AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

SOME SLIGHT BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF WESTERN GREAT LAKES UPPER WAVE HAS KEPT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF KSBN. INCREASING SYNOPTIC FORCING LATE
MORNING WITH THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH WINDS VEERING TO WEST
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
AT LEAST SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT KSBN THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO IFR VSBYS AT KSBN THIS AFTERNOON
BUT EXACT DETAILS REGARDING FETCH WILL BE CRITICAL FOR KSBN SNOW
SHOWER POTENTIAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT KFWA. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS BACK
INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR
     INZ003>006.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ079-080.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077-078.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 201147
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
647 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL FAVOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER
TONIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER EVOLUTION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY NO IMMEDIATE PLANS
EARLY THIS MORNING TO CHANGE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/WINTER
STORM WARNING HEADLINES.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO ORGANIZE THROUGH
MUCH OF LAST EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT RISING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER AS LOW/MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AT 07Z DOES DEPICTS A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOSING
INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID MORNING. CHANNELED DPVA WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING DEPTH OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
INCREASING. WITH SOME VERY SUBTLE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...BULK OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MID
MORNING MAY NOT MAKE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESS FROM CURRENT
POSITIONING. MAIN TWEAK TO FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING WAS TO
REDUCE POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY MIDDAY...A SECONDARY UPPER VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING SHOULD DIG ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD YIELD A MORE FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR THE INDIANA PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH FETCH CONSIDERATIONS SHOULD FAVOR
NORTHERN BERRIEN...CASS COUNTY MICHIGAN....AND POSSIBLY INTO ST.
JOSEPH COUNTY MICHIGAN FOR THE GREATER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. SOME
COMPETING FACTORS PERSIST IN TERMS OF ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE EXACT
MAGNITUDES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AND WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST
TODAY. DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DOES APPEAR TO MAINTAIN SATURATION IN
THE 950-850 HPA LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD CO-LOCATION TO
SHALLOW BASED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. LAKE-700 THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS ALSO SHOULD HOVER INTO THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE CELSIUS
RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH MAXIMUM LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS IN THE LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY DRY LAYER ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WOULD
FALL INLINE MORE WITH WEAKER MULTIBAND EVENTS PER LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY
STUDIES. WILDCARD IN THIS SETUP DOES APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL POTENCY
OF SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED CHANNELED
VORTICITY ADVECTION LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
PROLONGED SETUP INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEVIATE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH PERHAPS THE GREATEST
PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS
CENTERED IN THE 18Z-00Z TIMEFRAME GIVEN SYNOPTIC FORCING/IMPROVING
FETCH. WILL CARRY 4 TO 7 INCH/LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMS FOR BERRIEN/CASS
IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING WITH SOME INCREASING CONCERNS OF THE
ROLE OF LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR CUTTING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THE
INDIANA WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES...WILL CARRY 2 TO 4 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS...FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INDIANA TOLL
ROAD...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES/LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR MICHIGAN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AREA (GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUMS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 69).

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS/INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING CONCERNS SLACKENING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FRIDAY AND END
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL AND AS WINDS BACK TO
THE SOUTH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE 925/850 LAYER AND SHOULD
SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST AREAS WHERE THE COLD AIR IS DEEPER. THE
MAX TEMPERATURE IN WARM LAYER SHOULD BE AT LEAST 3C WHERE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS AND SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW. A
RELATIVELY BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN SUBFREEZING GROUND TEMPS AND SURFACE TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. UP TO AN
INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER AN INCH. SOME CONCERN FOR
LOCAL FLOODING GIVEN FROZEN GROUND...MELTING SNOW COVER AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

SOME SLIGHT BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF WESTERN GREAT LAKES UPPER WAVE HAS KEPT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF KSBN. INCREASING SYNOPTIC FORCING LATE
MORNING WITH THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH WINDS VEERING TO WEST
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
AT LEAST SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT KSBN THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO IFR VSBYS AT KSBN THIS AFTERNOON
BUT EXACT DETAILS REGARDING FETCH WILL BE CRITICAL FOR KSBN SNOW
SHOWER POTENTIAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT KFWA. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS BACK
INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR
     INZ003>006.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ079-080.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077-078.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 200937
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL FAVOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER
TONIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER EVOLUTION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY NO IMMEDIATE PLANS
EARLY THIS MORNING TO CHANGE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/WINTER
STORM WARNING HEADLINES.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO ORGANIZE THROUGH
MUCH OF LAST EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT RISING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER AS LOW/MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AT 07Z DOES DEPICTS A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOSING
INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID MORNING. CHANNELED DPVA WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING DEPTH OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
INCREASING. WITH SOME VERY SUBTLE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...BULK OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MID
MORNING MAY NOT MAKE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESS FROM CURRENT
POSITIONING. MAIN TWEAK TO FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING WAS TO
REDUCE POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY MIDDAY...A SECONDARY UPPER VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING SHOULD DIG ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD YIELD A MORE FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR THE INDIANA PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH FETCH CONSIDERATIONS SHOULD FAVOR
NORTHERN BERRIEN...CASS COUNTY MICHIGAN....AND POSSIBLY INTO ST.
JOSEPH COUNTY MICHIGAN FOR THE GREATER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. SOME
COMPETING FACTORS PERSIST IN TERMS OF ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE EXACT
MAGNITUDES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AND WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST
TODAY. DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DOES APPEAR TO MAINTAIN SATURATION IN
THE 950-850 HPA LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD CO-LOCATION TO
SHALLOW BASED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. LAKE-700 THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS ALSO SHOULD HOVER INTO THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE CELSIUS
RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH MAXIMUM LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS IN THE LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY DRY LAYER ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WOULD
FALL INLINE MORE WITH WEAKER MULTIBAND EVENTS PER LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY
STUDIES. WILDCARD IN THIS SETUP DOES APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL POTENCY
OF SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED CHANNELED
VORTICITY ADVECTION LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
PROLONGED SETUP INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEVIATE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH PERHAPS THE GREATEST
PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS
CENTERED IN THE 18Z-00Z TIMEFRAME GIVEN SYNOPTIC FORCING/IMPROVING
FETCH. WILL CARRY 4 TO 7 INCH/LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMS FOR BERRIEN/CASS
IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING WITH SOME INCREASING CONCERNS OF THE
ROLE OF LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR CUTTING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THE
INDIANA WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES...WILL CARRY 2 TO 4 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS...FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INDIANA TOLL
ROAD...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES/LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR MICHIGAN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AREA (GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUMS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 69).

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS/INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING CONCERNS SLACKENING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FRIDAY AND END
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL AND AS WINDS BACK TO
THE SOUTH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE 925/850 LAYER AND SHOULD
SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST AREAS WHERE THE COLD AIR IS DEEPER. THE
MAX TEMPERATURE IN WARM LAYER SHOULD BE AT LEAST 3C WHERE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS AND SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW. A
RELATIVELY BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN SUBFREEZING GROUND TEMPS AND SURFACE TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. UP TO AN
INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER AN INCH. SOME CONCERN FOR
LOCAL FLOODING GIVEN FROZEN GROUND...MELTING SNOW COVER AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW/MID LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHEARED UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL ALSO BE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE REGION AIDING IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WESTERLY FETCH SHOULD KEEP
BULK OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF KSBN...ALTHOUGH TOWARD MIDDAY...SOME
VEERING OF FLOW IS EXPECTED THAT COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT KSBN. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS
TAFS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN IN THE 19Z-23Z TIMEFRAME.
SLOWING BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THREAT. OUTSIDE OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...MVFR CIGS OF 2-3K FT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
KSBN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHILE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT KFWA WHERE ONLY SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED.
WEST WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR
     INZ003>006.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ079-080.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077-078.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 200937
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL FAVOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER
TONIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER EVOLUTION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY NO IMMEDIATE PLANS
EARLY THIS MORNING TO CHANGE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/WINTER
STORM WARNING HEADLINES.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO ORGANIZE THROUGH
MUCH OF LAST EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT RISING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER AS LOW/MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AT 07Z DOES DEPICTS A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOSING
INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID MORNING. CHANNELED DPVA WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING DEPTH OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
INCREASING. WITH SOME VERY SUBTLE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...BULK OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MID
MORNING MAY NOT MAKE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESS FROM CURRENT
POSITIONING. MAIN TWEAK TO FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING WAS TO
REDUCE POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY MIDDAY...A SECONDARY UPPER VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING SHOULD DIG ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD YIELD A MORE FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR THE INDIANA PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH FETCH CONSIDERATIONS SHOULD FAVOR
NORTHERN BERRIEN...CASS COUNTY MICHIGAN....AND POSSIBLY INTO ST.
JOSEPH COUNTY MICHIGAN FOR THE GREATER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. SOME
COMPETING FACTORS PERSIST IN TERMS OF ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE EXACT
MAGNITUDES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AND WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST
TODAY. DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DOES APPEAR TO MAINTAIN SATURATION IN
THE 950-850 HPA LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD CO-LOCATION TO
SHALLOW BASED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. LAKE-700 THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS ALSO SHOULD HOVER INTO THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE CELSIUS
RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH MAXIMUM LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS IN THE LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY DRY LAYER ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WOULD
FALL INLINE MORE WITH WEAKER MULTIBAND EVENTS PER LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY
STUDIES. WILDCARD IN THIS SETUP DOES APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL POTENCY
OF SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED CHANNELED
VORTICITY ADVECTION LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
PROLONGED SETUP INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEVIATE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH PERHAPS THE GREATEST
PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS
CENTERED IN THE 18Z-00Z TIMEFRAME GIVEN SYNOPTIC FORCING/IMPROVING
FETCH. WILL CARRY 4 TO 7 INCH/LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMS FOR BERRIEN/CASS
IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING WITH SOME INCREASING CONCERNS OF THE
ROLE OF LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR CUTTING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THE
INDIANA WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES...WILL CARRY 2 TO 4 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS...FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INDIANA TOLL
ROAD...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES/LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR MICHIGAN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AREA (GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUMS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 69).

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS/INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING CONCERNS SLACKENING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FRIDAY AND END
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL AND AS WINDS BACK TO
THE SOUTH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE 925/850 LAYER AND SHOULD
SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST AREAS WHERE THE COLD AIR IS DEEPER. THE
MAX TEMPERATURE IN WARM LAYER SHOULD BE AT LEAST 3C WHERE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS AND SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW. A
RELATIVELY BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN SUBFREEZING GROUND TEMPS AND SURFACE TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. UP TO AN
INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER AN INCH. SOME CONCERN FOR
LOCAL FLOODING GIVEN FROZEN GROUND...MELTING SNOW COVER AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW/MID LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHEARED UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL ALSO BE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE REGION AIDING IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WESTERLY FETCH SHOULD KEEP
BULK OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF KSBN...ALTHOUGH TOWARD MIDDAY...SOME
VEERING OF FLOW IS EXPECTED THAT COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT KSBN. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS
TAFS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN IN THE 19Z-23Z TIMEFRAME.
SLOWING BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THREAT. OUTSIDE OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...MVFR CIGS OF 2-3K FT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
KSBN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHILE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT KFWA WHERE ONLY SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED.
WEST WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR
     INZ003>006.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ079-080.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077-078.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 200937
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL FAVOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER
TONIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER EVOLUTION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY NO IMMEDIATE PLANS
EARLY THIS MORNING TO CHANGE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/WINTER
STORM WARNING HEADLINES.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO ORGANIZE THROUGH
MUCH OF LAST EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT RISING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER AS LOW/MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AT 07Z DOES DEPICTS A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOSING
INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID MORNING. CHANNELED DPVA WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING DEPTH OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
INCREASING. WITH SOME VERY SUBTLE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...BULK OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MID
MORNING MAY NOT MAKE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESS FROM CURRENT
POSITIONING. MAIN TWEAK TO FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING WAS TO
REDUCE POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY MIDDAY...A SECONDARY UPPER VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING SHOULD DIG ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD YIELD A MORE FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR THE INDIANA PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH FETCH CONSIDERATIONS SHOULD FAVOR
NORTHERN BERRIEN...CASS COUNTY MICHIGAN....AND POSSIBLY INTO ST.
JOSEPH COUNTY MICHIGAN FOR THE GREATER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. SOME
COMPETING FACTORS PERSIST IN TERMS OF ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE EXACT
MAGNITUDES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AND WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST
TODAY. DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DOES APPEAR TO MAINTAIN SATURATION IN
THE 950-850 HPA LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD CO-LOCATION TO
SHALLOW BASED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. LAKE-700 THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS ALSO SHOULD HOVER INTO THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE CELSIUS
RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH MAXIMUM LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS IN THE LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY DRY LAYER ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WOULD
FALL INLINE MORE WITH WEAKER MULTIBAND EVENTS PER LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY
STUDIES. WILDCARD IN THIS SETUP DOES APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL POTENCY
OF SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED CHANNELED
VORTICITY ADVECTION LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
PROLONGED SETUP INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEVIATE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH PERHAPS THE GREATEST
PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS
CENTERED IN THE 18Z-00Z TIMEFRAME GIVEN SYNOPTIC FORCING/IMPROVING
FETCH. WILL CARRY 4 TO 7 INCH/LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMS FOR BERRIEN/CASS
IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING WITH SOME INCREASING CONCERNS OF THE
ROLE OF LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR CUTTING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THE
INDIANA WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES...WILL CARRY 2 TO 4 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS...FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INDIANA TOLL
ROAD...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES/LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR MICHIGAN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AREA (GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUMS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 69).

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS/INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING CONCERNS SLACKENING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FRIDAY AND END
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL AND AS WINDS BACK TO
THE SOUTH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE 925/850 LAYER AND SHOULD
SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST AREAS WHERE THE COLD AIR IS DEEPER. THE
MAX TEMPERATURE IN WARM LAYER SHOULD BE AT LEAST 3C WHERE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS AND SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW. A
RELATIVELY BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN SUBFREEZING GROUND TEMPS AND SURFACE TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. UP TO AN
INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER AN INCH. SOME CONCERN FOR
LOCAL FLOODING GIVEN FROZEN GROUND...MELTING SNOW COVER AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW/MID LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHEARED UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL ALSO BE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE REGION AIDING IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WESTERLY FETCH SHOULD KEEP
BULK OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF KSBN...ALTHOUGH TOWARD MIDDAY...SOME
VEERING OF FLOW IS EXPECTED THAT COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT KSBN. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS
TAFS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN IN THE 19Z-23Z TIMEFRAME.
SLOWING BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THREAT. OUTSIDE OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...MVFR CIGS OF 2-3K FT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
KSBN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHILE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT KFWA WHERE ONLY SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED.
WEST WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR
     INZ003>006.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ079-080.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077-078.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 200937
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL FAVOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER
TONIGHT. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
REACH INTO THE MID 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER EVOLUTION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FORECAST FOCUS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY NO IMMEDIATE PLANS
EARLY THIS MORNING TO CHANGE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY/WINTER
STORM WARNING HEADLINES.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO ORGANIZE THROUGH
MUCH OF LAST EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM NAM/RAP
BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT RISING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER AS LOW/MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AT 07Z DOES DEPICTS A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOSING
INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID MORNING. CHANNELED DPVA WITH
THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING DEPTH OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
INCREASING. WITH SOME VERY SUBTLE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...BULK OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MID
MORNING MAY NOT MAKE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESS FROM CURRENT
POSITIONING. MAIN TWEAK TO FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING WAS TO
REDUCE POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY MIDDAY...A SECONDARY UPPER VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING SHOULD DIG ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD YIELD A MORE FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR THE INDIANA PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH FETCH CONSIDERATIONS SHOULD FAVOR
NORTHERN BERRIEN...CASS COUNTY MICHIGAN....AND POSSIBLY INTO ST.
JOSEPH COUNTY MICHIGAN FOR THE GREATER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. SOME
COMPETING FACTORS PERSIST IN TERMS OF ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE EXACT
MAGNITUDES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AND WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST
TODAY. DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DOES APPEAR TO MAINTAIN SATURATION IN
THE 950-850 HPA LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD CO-LOCATION TO
SHALLOW BASED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. LAKE-700 THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS ALSO SHOULD HOVER INTO THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE CELSIUS
RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...WITH MAXIMUM LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS IN THE LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY DRY LAYER ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WOULD
FALL INLINE MORE WITH WEAKER MULTIBAND EVENTS PER LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY
STUDIES. WILDCARD IN THIS SETUP DOES APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL POTENCY
OF SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED CHANNELED
VORTICITY ADVECTION LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
PROLONGED SETUP INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...HAVE OPTED TO NOT DEVIATE
SUBSTANTIALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH PERHAPS THE GREATEST
PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS
CENTERED IN THE 18Z-00Z TIMEFRAME GIVEN SYNOPTIC FORCING/IMPROVING
FETCH. WILL CARRY 4 TO 7 INCH/LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMS FOR BERRIEN/CASS
IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING WITH SOME INCREASING CONCERNS OF THE
ROLE OF LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR CUTTING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THE
INDIANA WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COUNTIES...WILL CARRY 2 TO 4 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS...FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INDIANA TOLL
ROAD...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES/LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR MICHIGAN WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AREA (GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER ACCUMS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 69).

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
STRENGTHENS/INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING CONCERNS SLACKENING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FRIDAY AND END
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL AND AS WINDS BACK TO
THE SOUTH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE 925/850 LAYER AND SHOULD
SUPPORT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN EARLY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST AREAS WHERE THE COLD AIR IS DEEPER. THE
MAX TEMPERATURE IN WARM LAYER SHOULD BE AT LEAST 3C WHERE
PRECIPITATION OCCURS AND SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW. A
RELATIVELY BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN SUBFREEZING GROUND TEMPS AND SURFACE TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. UP TO AN
INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER AN INCH. SOME CONCERN FOR
LOCAL FLOODING GIVEN FROZEN GROUND...MELTING SNOW COVER AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW/MID LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHEARED UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL ALSO BE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE REGION AIDING IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WESTERLY FETCH SHOULD KEEP
BULK OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF KSBN...ALTHOUGH TOWARD MIDDAY...SOME
VEERING OF FLOW IS EXPECTED THAT COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT KSBN. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS
TAFS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN IN THE 19Z-23Z TIMEFRAME.
SLOWING BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THREAT. OUTSIDE OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...MVFR CIGS OF 2-3K FT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
KSBN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHILE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT KFWA WHERE ONLY SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED.
WEST WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR
     INZ003>006.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ079-080.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077-078.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 200617
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
117 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...ALLOWING
FOR RENEWED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA. WINTER WEATHER
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY STRUGGLING BACK INTO
THE 20S. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...CAUSING AREAS OF BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PLAGUE THE AREA...

WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE TIME BEING AS
EXACT EVOLUTION/POSITION OF HEAVIEST BAND(S) STILL NOT FULLY CLEAR.

COLD FRONT WAS SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
ALONG/AHEAD OF IT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SURGE OF COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WILL ARRIVE IN 2 BATCHES.
THE FIRST WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY WITH LK TO 850 MB DELTA T`S CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. FLOW WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST EVENT
WITH GROWING CONCERNS THAT A PERSISTENT BAND COULD SET UP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE IN/MI STATE LINE TOWARDS THE INDIANA TOLL ROAD AS
STRONGLY SUGGEST BY THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE LOCAL WRF MODEL.
OTHER FINER RESOLUTION MODELS HINTING AT A SIMILAR SETUP WITH NAM
NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH. OVERALL INSTABILITY...MSTR DEPTH AND
INVERSION HGT ARE LESS THAN WITH THE MOST RECENT EVENT BUT STILL
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR EFFICIENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER
PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR MORE
PRODUCTIVE/BETTER ORGANIZED SNOW BANDS. GIVEN THE SIGNALS OF A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRANSITION OF THE HEAVIER BAND HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE STATE LINE AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TOLL ROAD.
AT THIS POINT WILL NOT UPGRADE TO A WARNING ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN NE LA PORTE...FAR NORTHERN ST JOE AND ELKHART
COUNTIES ARE INCREASING. WILL BEEF UP THE WORDING ON THE RESPECTIVE
SEGMENT OF THE ADVISORY TO REFLECT CONCERNS AND DEFER TO EVE SHIFT
TO SEE HOW THE BAND SETS UP. IT SHOULD BE NOTED AS OF WRITING THAT
REGION RADAR LOOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE ALREADY
INDICATING AT LEAST ONE BAND TAKING SHAPE...MATCHING WELL WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE MORE FAVORABLE MODELS. REST OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY
HEADLINES ON TRACK ALTHOUGH WILL NUDGE TOTAL AMOUNTS UP IN THE
ACTUAL WARNING TO BETTER REFLECT TRENDS. AWAY FROM THE LAKE SCT
FLURRIES WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT PER UPSTREAM OBS AND
RADAR TRENDS. IMPACT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NIL BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL
CAUSE SOME LOW DRIFTING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

ON THURSDAY...FLOW TRIES TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO INCREASE. AS A RESULT OF THE
ADJUSTMENT IN FLOW...THE BAND MAY TRANSITION BACK NORTH IN THE
MORNING BEFORE RETURNING SOUTH AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. NO SIG
CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE A GOOD 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASED BACKING/RMS WITHIN STEERING FLOW TO VEX
LES PRODUCTION THROUGH THU NIGHT. WHILE STILL GOOD INITIAL LES EVENT
ONGOING THU EVENING PER LK/8H THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS NEAR 23C WITHIN
A SLIGHTLY MORE VEERED CBL FLOW...290 DEGREES INITIALLY VEERING
FURTHER TO 315 BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WHEN INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER.
FURTHERMORE LESS FAVORABLE UVM WITHIN A DIMINISHED DGZ DEPTH BECOME
INCREASED NEGATIVES THROUGH THE NIGHT. HEREAFTER ATTENTION FOCUSES
ON SRN TRACKED STREAM SYSTEM /CURRENTLY NEAR 40N/140W. THIS SYSTEM
TO DIG ACROSS SOCAL/SRN AZ FRIDAY...THEN EMERGE OFF EDWARDS PLATEAU
MIDDAY SATURDAY/TO MID MS VLY 18 UTC SUN. GOOD CONSENSUS OF SYSTEM
TRACKING WEST OF CWA IN AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION
TOWARDS LAGGED ALEUTIAN/GULF OF AK VORTEX. THIS ALONG WITH COHESION
OF SURFACE RIDGING INTO MID OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...SLIDING OFF MID
ATLANTIC POSITIONED DISFAVORABLY FOR SHALLOW COLD AIR RETENTION ACRS
CWA. NON DIURNAL TRENDS ADDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS REACHED
EARLY WITH INCRSD CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH RAMPING/DEEPENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER PER EXTREME 200-300 MB
925 MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO EFFECTIVELY ERODE LEADING
EDGE SENSIBLE WX THROUGH THE NIGHT. KEPT SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAIL OF
WX BROAD IN LIGHT OF ANTICIPATED FUTURE MODEL TRENDS/VARIANCES AND
GIVEN DY4 TIMEFRAME. SMALL CHC LIGHT ZR EARLY...THOUGH QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO ALL LIQUID PTYPE AS SHALLOW COLD POOL QUICKLY
DISSOLVES/RETREATS NEWD TO A PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT THIS WEEKEND AS
SYSTEM CONTS TO WRAP/DEEPEN ON NWD TRACK INTO NRN GRTLKS MON AM.
AGAIN A NOD TO ATYPICAL DIURNAL/FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPS WITH AGAIN
BROAD RAIN/SNOW...CONCEDING A RAIN TO MIX TO SNOW MOST PROBABLE
SCENARIO...FOLLOWED BY EPISODIC LES WITH AT LEAST MODEST LK/8H
DIFFERENTIALS EXPECTED BEFORE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCD LAKE AGGREGATE
TROF LIFTS OUT NEWD INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW/MID LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHEARED UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL ALSO BE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE REGION AIDING IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WESTERLY FETCH SHOULD KEEP
BULK OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF KSBN...ALTHOUGH TOWARD MIDDAY...SOME
VEERING OF FLOW IS EXPECTED THAT COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT KSBN. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS
TAFS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN IN THE 19Z-23Z TIMEFRAME.
SLOWING BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THREAT. OUTSIDE OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...MVFR CIGS OF 2-3K FT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
KSBN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHILE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT KFWA WHERE ONLY SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED.
WEST WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR
     INZ003>006.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ079-080.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077-078.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 200617
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
117 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...ALLOWING
FOR RENEWED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA. WINTER WEATHER
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY STRUGGLING BACK INTO
THE 20S. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...CAUSING AREAS OF BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PLAGUE THE AREA...

WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE TIME BEING AS
EXACT EVOLUTION/POSITION OF HEAVIEST BAND(S) STILL NOT FULLY CLEAR.

COLD FRONT WAS SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
ALONG/AHEAD OF IT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SURGE OF COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WILL ARRIVE IN 2 BATCHES.
THE FIRST WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY WITH LK TO 850 MB DELTA T`S CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. FLOW WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST EVENT
WITH GROWING CONCERNS THAT A PERSISTENT BAND COULD SET UP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE IN/MI STATE LINE TOWARDS THE INDIANA TOLL ROAD AS
STRONGLY SUGGEST BY THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE LOCAL WRF MODEL.
OTHER FINER RESOLUTION MODELS HINTING AT A SIMILAR SETUP WITH NAM
NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH. OVERALL INSTABILITY...MSTR DEPTH AND
INVERSION HGT ARE LESS THAN WITH THE MOST RECENT EVENT BUT STILL
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR EFFICIENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER
PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR MORE
PRODUCTIVE/BETTER ORGANIZED SNOW BANDS. GIVEN THE SIGNALS OF A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRANSITION OF THE HEAVIER BAND HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE STATE LINE AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TOLL ROAD.
AT THIS POINT WILL NOT UPGRADE TO A WARNING ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN NE LA PORTE...FAR NORTHERN ST JOE AND ELKHART
COUNTIES ARE INCREASING. WILL BEEF UP THE WORDING ON THE RESPECTIVE
SEGMENT OF THE ADVISORY TO REFLECT CONCERNS AND DEFER TO EVE SHIFT
TO SEE HOW THE BAND SETS UP. IT SHOULD BE NOTED AS OF WRITING THAT
REGION RADAR LOOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE ALREADY
INDICATING AT LEAST ONE BAND TAKING SHAPE...MATCHING WELL WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE MORE FAVORABLE MODELS. REST OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY
HEADLINES ON TRACK ALTHOUGH WILL NUDGE TOTAL AMOUNTS UP IN THE
ACTUAL WARNING TO BETTER REFLECT TRENDS. AWAY FROM THE LAKE SCT
FLURRIES WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT PER UPSTREAM OBS AND
RADAR TRENDS. IMPACT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NIL BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL
CAUSE SOME LOW DRIFTING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

ON THURSDAY...FLOW TRIES TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO INCREASE. AS A RESULT OF THE
ADJUSTMENT IN FLOW...THE BAND MAY TRANSITION BACK NORTH IN THE
MORNING BEFORE RETURNING SOUTH AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. NO SIG
CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE A GOOD 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASED BACKING/RMS WITHIN STEERING FLOW TO VEX
LES PRODUCTION THROUGH THU NIGHT. WHILE STILL GOOD INITIAL LES EVENT
ONGOING THU EVENING PER LK/8H THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS NEAR 23C WITHIN
A SLIGHTLY MORE VEERED CBL FLOW...290 DEGREES INITIALLY VEERING
FURTHER TO 315 BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WHEN INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER.
FURTHERMORE LESS FAVORABLE UVM WITHIN A DIMINISHED DGZ DEPTH BECOME
INCREASED NEGATIVES THROUGH THE NIGHT. HEREAFTER ATTENTION FOCUSES
ON SRN TRACKED STREAM SYSTEM /CURRENTLY NEAR 40N/140W. THIS SYSTEM
TO DIG ACROSS SOCAL/SRN AZ FRIDAY...THEN EMERGE OFF EDWARDS PLATEAU
MIDDAY SATURDAY/TO MID MS VLY 18 UTC SUN. GOOD CONSENSUS OF SYSTEM
TRACKING WEST OF CWA IN AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION
TOWARDS LAGGED ALEUTIAN/GULF OF AK VORTEX. THIS ALONG WITH COHESION
OF SURFACE RIDGING INTO MID OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...SLIDING OFF MID
ATLANTIC POSITIONED DISFAVORABLY FOR SHALLOW COLD AIR RETENTION ACRS
CWA. NON DIURNAL TRENDS ADDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS REACHED
EARLY WITH INCRSD CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH RAMPING/DEEPENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER PER EXTREME 200-300 MB
925 MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO EFFECTIVELY ERODE LEADING
EDGE SENSIBLE WX THROUGH THE NIGHT. KEPT SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAIL OF
WX BROAD IN LIGHT OF ANTICIPATED FUTURE MODEL TRENDS/VARIANCES AND
GIVEN DY4 TIMEFRAME. SMALL CHC LIGHT ZR EARLY...THOUGH QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO ALL LIQUID PTYPE AS SHALLOW COLD POOL QUICKLY
DISSOLVES/RETREATS NEWD TO A PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT THIS WEEKEND AS
SYSTEM CONTS TO WRAP/DEEPEN ON NWD TRACK INTO NRN GRTLKS MON AM.
AGAIN A NOD TO ATYPICAL DIURNAL/FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPS WITH AGAIN
BROAD RAIN/SNOW...CONCEDING A RAIN TO MIX TO SNOW MOST PROBABLE
SCENARIO...FOLLOWED BY EPISODIC LES WITH AT LEAST MODEST LK/8H
DIFFERENTIALS EXPECTED BEFORE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCD LAKE AGGREGATE
TROF LIFTS OUT NEWD INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW/MID LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
SHEARED UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL ALSO BE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE REGION AIDING IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WESTERLY FETCH SHOULD KEEP
BULK OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF KSBN...ALTHOUGH TOWARD MIDDAY...SOME
VEERING OF FLOW IS EXPECTED THAT COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT KSBN. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS
TAFS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN IN THE 19Z-23Z TIMEFRAME.
SLOWING BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THREAT. OUTSIDE OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...MVFR CIGS OF 2-3K FT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
KSBN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHILE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT KFWA WHERE ONLY SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED.
WEST WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR
     INZ003>006.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ079-080.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077-078.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 200126
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
826 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...ALLOWING
FOR RENEWED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA. WINTER WEATHER
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY STRUGGLING BACK INTO
THE 20S. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...CAUSING AREAS OF BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PLAGUE THE AREA...

WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE TIME BEING AS
EXACT EVOLUTION/POSITION OF HEAVIEST BAND(S) STILL NOT FULLY CLEAR.

COLD FRONT WAS SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
ALONG/AHEAD OF IT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SURGE OF COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WILL ARRIVE IN 2 BATCHES.
THE FIRST WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY WITH LK TO 850 MB DELTA T`S CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. FLOW WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST EVENT
WITH GROWING CONCERNS THAT A PERSISTENT BAND COULD SET UP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE IN/MI STATE LINE TOWARDS THE INDIANA TOLL ROAD AS
STRONGLY SUGGEST BY THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE LOCAL WRF MODEL.
OTHER FINER RESOLUTION MODELS HINTING AT A SIMILAR SETUP WITH NAM
NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH. OVERALL INSTABILITY...MSTR DEPTH AND
INVERSION HGT ARE LESS THAN WITH THE MOST RECENT EVENT BUT STILL
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR EFFICIENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER
PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR MORE
PRODUCTIVE/BETTER ORGANIZED SNOW BANDS. GIVEN THE SIGNALS OF A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRANSITION OF THE HEAVIER BAND HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE STATE LINE AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TOLL ROAD.
AT THIS POINT WILL NOT UPGRADE TO A WARNING ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN NE LA PORTE...FAR NORTHERN ST JOE AND ELKHART
COUNTIES ARE INCREASING. WILL BEEF UP THE WORDING ON THE RESPECTIVE
SEGMENT OF THE ADVISORY TO REFLECT CONCERNS AND DEFER TO EVE SHIFT
TO SEE HOW THE BAND SETS UP. IT SHOULD BE NOTED AS OF WRITING THAT
REGION RADAR LOOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE ALREADY
INDICATING AT LEAST ONE BAND TAKING SHAPE...MATCHING WELL WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE MORE FAVORABLE MODELS. REST OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY
HEADLINES ON TRACK ALTHOUGH WILL NUDGE TOTAL AMOUNTS UP IN THE
ACTUAL WARNING TO BETTER REFLECT TRENDS. AWAY FROM THE LAKE SCT
FLURRIES WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT PER UPSTREAM OBS AND
RADAR TRENDS. IMPACT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NIL BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL
CAUSE SOME LOW DRIFTING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

ON THURSDAY...FLOW TRIES TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO INCREASE. AS A RESULT OF THE
ADJUSTMENT IN FLOW...THE BAND MAY TRANSITION BACK NORTH IN THE
MORNING BEFORE RETURNING SOUTH AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. NO SIG
CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE A GOOD 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASED BACKING/RMS WITHIN STEERING FLOW TO VEX
LES PRODUCTION THROUGH THU NIGHT. WHILE STILL GOOD INITIAL LES EVENT
ONGOING THU EVENING PER LK/8H THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS NEAR 23C WITHIN
A SLIGHTLY MORE VEERED CBL FLOW...290 DEGREES INITIALLY VEERING
FURTHER TO 315 BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WHEN INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER.
FURTHERMORE LESS FAVORABLE UVM WITHIN A DIMINISHED DGZ DEPTH BECOME
INCREASED NEGATIVES THROUGH THE NIGHT. HEREAFTER ATTENTION FOCUSES
ON SRN TRACKED STREAM SYSTEM /CURRENTLY NEAR 40N/140W. THIS SYSTEM
TO DIG ACROSS SOCAL/SRN AZ FRIDAY...THEN EMERGE OFF EDWARDS PLATEAU
MIDDAY SATURDAY/TO MID MS VLY 18 UTC SUN. GOOD CONSENSUS OF SYSTEM
TRACKING WEST OF CWA IN AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION
TOWARDS LAGGED ALEUTIAN/GULF OF AK VORTEX. THIS ALONG WITH COHESION
OF SURFACE RIDGING INTO MID OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...SLIDING OFF MID
ATLANTIC POSITIONED DISFAVORABLY FOR SHALLOW COLD AIR RETENTION ACRS
CWA. NON DIURNAL TRENDS ADDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS REACHED
EARLY WITH INCRSD CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH RAMPING/DEEPENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER PER EXTREME 200-300 MB
925 MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO EFFECTIVELY ERODE LEADING
EDGE SENSIBLE WX THROUGH THE NIGHT. KEPT SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAIL OF
WX BROAD IN LIGHT OF ANTICIPATED FUTURE MODEL TRENDS/VARIANCES AND
GIVEN DY4 TIMEFRAME. SMALL CHC LIGHT ZR EARLY...THOUGH QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO ALL LIQUID PTYPE AS SHALLOW COLD POOL QUICKLY
DISSOLVES/RETREATS NEWD TO A PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT THIS WEEKEND AS
SYSTEM CONTS TO WRAP/DEEPEN ON NWD TRACK INTO NRN GRTLKS MON AM.
AGAIN A NOD TO ATYPICAL DIURNAL/FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPS WITH AGAIN
BROAD RAIN/SNOW...CONCEDING A RAIN TO MIX TO SNOW MOST PROBABLE
SCENARIO...FOLLOWED BY EPISODIC LES WITH AT LEAST MODEST LK/8H
DIFFERENTIALS EXPECTED BEFORE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCD LAKE AGGREGATE
TROF LIFTS OUT NEWD INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 818 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LK EFFECT DVLPMNT HAS BEEN SLOW THIS EVENING BUT RECENT UPTICK IN
RADAR RTNS NOTABLE IN CONTEXT OF BUILDING LL THERMAL TROUGH. 00Z
TAF FCST FOR KSBN LIKELY TOO OPTIMISTIC AS COMBO OF 18Z HIGHRES
DATA AND LOCAL WRF BOTH SHIFT DVLPG BAND THROUGH SRN BERRIEN/CASS
SWD THROUGH LATE EVENING...AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
WILL CONT TO MONITOR THAT. SUSPECT A PD OF LIFR CONDS PSBL AT KSBN
OVERNIGHT AS PRIMARY BAND CONTS TO BLOSSOM.

OTRWS GENERAL LOW END VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD W/GUSTY WRLY
SFC WINDS AGAIN TOMORROW AOA 25KTS LT MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR
     INZ003>006.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ079-080.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077-078.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 200126
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
826 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...ALLOWING
FOR RENEWED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA. WINTER WEATHER
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY STRUGGLING BACK INTO
THE 20S. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...CAUSING AREAS OF BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PLAGUE THE AREA...

WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE TIME BEING AS
EXACT EVOLUTION/POSITION OF HEAVIEST BAND(S) STILL NOT FULLY CLEAR.

COLD FRONT WAS SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
ALONG/AHEAD OF IT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. SURGE OF COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WILL ARRIVE IN 2 BATCHES.
THE FIRST WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY WITH LK TO 850 MB DELTA T`S CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. FLOW WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST EVENT
WITH GROWING CONCERNS THAT A PERSISTENT BAND COULD SET UP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE IN/MI STATE LINE TOWARDS THE INDIANA TOLL ROAD AS
STRONGLY SUGGEST BY THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE LOCAL WRF MODEL.
OTHER FINER RESOLUTION MODELS HINTING AT A SIMILAR SETUP WITH NAM
NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH. OVERALL INSTABILITY...MSTR DEPTH AND
INVERSION HGT ARE LESS THAN WITH THE MOST RECENT EVENT BUT STILL
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR EFFICIENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER
PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR MORE
PRODUCTIVE/BETTER ORGANIZED SNOW BANDS. GIVEN THE SIGNALS OF A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRANSITION OF THE HEAVIER BAND HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE STATE LINE AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TOLL ROAD.
AT THIS POINT WILL NOT UPGRADE TO A WARNING ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN NE LA PORTE...FAR NORTHERN ST JOE AND ELKHART
COUNTIES ARE INCREASING. WILL BEEF UP THE WORDING ON THE RESPECTIVE
SEGMENT OF THE ADVISORY TO REFLECT CONCERNS AND DEFER TO EVE SHIFT
TO SEE HOW THE BAND SETS UP. IT SHOULD BE NOTED AS OF WRITING THAT
REGION RADAR LOOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE ALREADY
INDICATING AT LEAST ONE BAND TAKING SHAPE...MATCHING WELL WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE MORE FAVORABLE MODELS. REST OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY
HEADLINES ON TRACK ALTHOUGH WILL NUDGE TOTAL AMOUNTS UP IN THE
ACTUAL WARNING TO BETTER REFLECT TRENDS. AWAY FROM THE LAKE SCT
FLURRIES WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT PER UPSTREAM OBS AND
RADAR TRENDS. IMPACT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NIL BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL
CAUSE SOME LOW DRIFTING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

ON THURSDAY...FLOW TRIES TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO INCREASE. AS A RESULT OF THE
ADJUSTMENT IN FLOW...THE BAND MAY TRANSITION BACK NORTH IN THE
MORNING BEFORE RETURNING SOUTH AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. NO SIG
CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE A GOOD 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASED BACKING/RMS WITHIN STEERING FLOW TO VEX
LES PRODUCTION THROUGH THU NIGHT. WHILE STILL GOOD INITIAL LES EVENT
ONGOING THU EVENING PER LK/8H THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS NEAR 23C WITHIN
A SLIGHTLY MORE VEERED CBL FLOW...290 DEGREES INITIALLY VEERING
FURTHER TO 315 BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WHEN INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER.
FURTHERMORE LESS FAVORABLE UVM WITHIN A DIMINISHED DGZ DEPTH BECOME
INCREASED NEGATIVES THROUGH THE NIGHT. HEREAFTER ATTENTION FOCUSES
ON SRN TRACKED STREAM SYSTEM /CURRENTLY NEAR 40N/140W. THIS SYSTEM
TO DIG ACROSS SOCAL/SRN AZ FRIDAY...THEN EMERGE OFF EDWARDS PLATEAU
MIDDAY SATURDAY/TO MID MS VLY 18 UTC SUN. GOOD CONSENSUS OF SYSTEM
TRACKING WEST OF CWA IN AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION
TOWARDS LAGGED ALEUTIAN/GULF OF AK VORTEX. THIS ALONG WITH COHESION
OF SURFACE RIDGING INTO MID OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...SLIDING OFF MID
ATLANTIC POSITIONED DISFAVORABLY FOR SHALLOW COLD AIR RETENTION ACRS
CWA. NON DIURNAL TRENDS ADDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MINS REACHED
EARLY WITH INCRSD CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH RAMPING/DEEPENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER PER EXTREME 200-300 MB
925 MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO EFFECTIVELY ERODE LEADING
EDGE SENSIBLE WX THROUGH THE NIGHT. KEPT SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAIL OF
WX BROAD IN LIGHT OF ANTICIPATED FUTURE MODEL TRENDS/VARIANCES AND
GIVEN DY4 TIMEFRAME. SMALL CHC LIGHT ZR EARLY...THOUGH QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO ALL LIQUID PTYPE AS SHALLOW COLD POOL QUICKLY
DISSOLVES/RETREATS NEWD TO A PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT THIS WEEKEND AS
SYSTEM CONTS TO WRAP/DEEPEN ON NWD TRACK INTO NRN GRTLKS MON AM.
AGAIN A NOD TO ATYPICAL DIURNAL/FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPS WITH AGAIN
BROAD RAIN/SNOW...CONCEDING A RAIN TO MIX TO SNOW MOST PROBABLE
SCENARIO...FOLLOWED BY EPISODIC LES WITH AT LEAST MODEST LK/8H
DIFFERENTIALS EXPECTED BEFORE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCD LAKE AGGREGATE
TROF LIFTS OUT NEWD INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 818 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

LK EFFECT DVLPMNT HAS BEEN SLOW THIS EVENING BUT RECENT UPTICK IN
RADAR RTNS NOTABLE IN CONTEXT OF BUILDING LL THERMAL TROUGH. 00Z
TAF FCST FOR KSBN LIKELY TOO OPTIMISTIC AS COMBO OF 18Z HIGHRES
DATA AND LOCAL WRF BOTH SHIFT DVLPG BAND THROUGH SRN BERRIEN/CASS
SWD THROUGH LATE EVENING...AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
WILL CONT TO MONITOR THAT. SUSPECT A PD OF LIFR CONDS PSBL AT KSBN
OVERNIGHT AS PRIMARY BAND CONTS TO BLOSSOM.

OTRWS GENERAL LOW END VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD W/GUSTY WRLY
SFC WINDS AGAIN TOMORROW AOA 25KTS LT MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR
     INZ003>006.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ079-080.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077-078.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...T


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