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000
FXUS63 KIWX 270840
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
440 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY WEATHER AND FAIR SKIES. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 30S. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING SOUTH AND HAS JUST CLEARED
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES HAD TEMPORARILY CLEARED
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM. THIS SECOND
DISTURBANCE WAS STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW AND SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. FAVORED THE 12KM NAM THAT DID AN EXCELLENT JOB WITH
THE INITIALIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SOME CONCERNS THAT THE
NAM DRYS OUT THE LOWER AND MID LAYERS TOO FAST. THE RAIN CHANCE
DIFFERENCE IS NOTICEABLE AT HILLSDALE MICHIGAN WITH A MET RAIN
CHANCE OF 4 PERCENT VS A GFS RAIN CHANCE OF 31 PERCENT. FOR NOW...
HAVE KEPT AN OPTIMISTIC AND DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST SOME SPRINKLES LATER TODAY OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN THIS EVENING AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH WITH ONE LAST NIGHT OF PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE
AS TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE 30S. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF WITH ANY FROST ADVISORY GIVEN A MORE MARGINAL EVENT EXPECTED AND
GIVEN RECENT LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S AT MANY LOCATIONS JUST A
FEW NIGHTS AGO.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

UPR RIDGE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TUE
PROVIDING FAIR WX AND WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
L-M60S. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
MID-WEEK UPR LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS... THOUGH
SOME SGFNT DIFFERENCES REMAIN. WHAT DOES SEEM LIKELY IS THAT THE LOW
OVER TX TODAY WILL MOVE TO TN/KY WED AND BE ABSORBED BY A DEEPENING
SHRTWV DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GRTLKS. 00Z GFS IS CONSIDERABLY
FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM SUGGESTING SOME SHOWERS
COULD REACH THE NE PORTION OF OUR CWA WED... BUT WAS DISREGARDED AS
AN OUTLIER WITH OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES. DID
FCST A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WED NGT AND THU WITH COOLER TEMPS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH... THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS SUGGESTED BY DEEPER
GFS. THE OH VALLEY LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
FRI WITH ROCKIES RIDGE MOVG TO THE GRTLKS AS ZONAL FLOW DVLPS OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES/GREAT PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX WITH
WARMER TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. THIS WARMING
TREND EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RISING TO
ABOVE NORMAL AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREAD
THE AREA. WK SHRTWV`S MOVG EAST THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS/GRTLKS ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING ALBEIT WK
INSTABILITY ALSO SUGGEST A LOW BUT SLOWLY INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF VFR CIGS EXTENDING FROM EAST INDIANA
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW AND SHOULD REACH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. KEPT THE MENTION OF VFR CIGS AT FT WAYNE STARTING AT
15Z. SOME CONCERN FOR MVFR CIGS AT FWA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AS MVFR CIGS AND RAIN WAS NEARING FLINT MICH AT 06Z.
KEPT THE TAFS OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW AND WILL AWAIT LATER GUIDANCE AND
MONITOR RADAR OBS AND TRENDS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 270610
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
210 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY WEATHER AND FAIR SKIES. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 30S. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MAIN
ITEMS OF INTEREST CENTERED ON TEMP/SKY COVER TRENDS TONIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE THROUGH PARENT UPPER CIRCULATION THIS EVENING. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND ONLY JUST AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CU HAS BEEN NOTED
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
COVERAGE OF THIS CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION INTO LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...FORCING WITH APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST/EAST SECTIONS THIS EVENING. A WEAK TO MODERATE GRADIENT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON FROST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN MINS FROM MID 30S WEST TO MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST.

LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPPER WAVE IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST QUEBEC AND SHOULD DROP INTO
NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHERN OHIO MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILES WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
SECOND WAVE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE SOLID LOW CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST/NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED
MIXING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHS TOMORROW FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THAT ARE IN THE BALLPARK TO THAT OBSERVED TODAY. COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN AS ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR MONDAY EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. GREATEST IMPACT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKY COVER
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKER. HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TOUCH AND EXPANDED
MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. FROST HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED WITH EXTENDED
PERIOD OF FROST POSSIBLE. LIMITED RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY WEDS NGT. PHASING OF SYSTEMS STILL EXPECTED BUT MAY END UP
MORE SOUTH OF THE REGION VS SE AS LARGER UPPER LOW SLOWER TO DEPART.
WITH THE AREA STILL GROSSLY LACKING MOISTURE...NOT LOOKING PROMISING
FOR SHOWERS WITH MODELS NOW BACKING OFF WEDS AND SHIFTING SOMEWHAT
TO WEDS NGT. HAVE KEPT WITH SLGT CHC POPS BUT SUSPECT LATER
FORECASTS WILL END UP REMOVING AS WELL.

TROUGHY PATTERN WILL HOLD INTO FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES AND THE AREA FINALLY SEES A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH SOME HINTS OF A MARGINAL SHOWER CHANCE. HAVE TONED DOWN
SUPERBLEND AND WENT WITH GENERAL SLGT CHC FOR AS MSTR WILL RETURN
BUT NOT BE OVERLY DEEP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF VFR CIGS EXTENDING FROM EAST INDIANA
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW AND SHOULD REACH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. KEPT THE MENTION OF VFR CIGS AT FT WAYNE STARTING AT
15Z. SOME CONCERN FOR MVFR CIGS AT FWA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AS MVFR CIGS AND RAIN WAS NEARING FLINT MICH AT 06Z.
KEPT THE TAFS OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW AND WILL AWAIT LATER GUIDANCE AND
MONITOR RADAR OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 270610
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
210 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY WEATHER AND FAIR SKIES. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 30S. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MAIN
ITEMS OF INTEREST CENTERED ON TEMP/SKY COVER TRENDS TONIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE THROUGH PARENT UPPER CIRCULATION THIS EVENING. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND ONLY JUST AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CU HAS BEEN NOTED
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
COVERAGE OF THIS CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION INTO LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...FORCING WITH APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST/EAST SECTIONS THIS EVENING. A WEAK TO MODERATE GRADIENT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON FROST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN MINS FROM MID 30S WEST TO MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST.

LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPPER WAVE IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST QUEBEC AND SHOULD DROP INTO
NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHERN OHIO MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILES WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
SECOND WAVE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE SOLID LOW CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST/NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED
MIXING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHS TOMORROW FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THAT ARE IN THE BALLPARK TO THAT OBSERVED TODAY. COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN AS ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR MONDAY EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. GREATEST IMPACT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKY COVER
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKER. HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TOUCH AND EXPANDED
MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. FROST HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED WITH EXTENDED
PERIOD OF FROST POSSIBLE. LIMITED RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY WEDS NGT. PHASING OF SYSTEMS STILL EXPECTED BUT MAY END UP
MORE SOUTH OF THE REGION VS SE AS LARGER UPPER LOW SLOWER TO DEPART.
WITH THE AREA STILL GROSSLY LACKING MOISTURE...NOT LOOKING PROMISING
FOR SHOWERS WITH MODELS NOW BACKING OFF WEDS AND SHIFTING SOMEWHAT
TO WEDS NGT. HAVE KEPT WITH SLGT CHC POPS BUT SUSPECT LATER
FORECASTS WILL END UP REMOVING AS WELL.

TROUGHY PATTERN WILL HOLD INTO FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES AND THE AREA FINALLY SEES A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH SOME HINTS OF A MARGINAL SHOWER CHANCE. HAVE TONED DOWN
SUPERBLEND AND WENT WITH GENERAL SLGT CHC FOR AS MSTR WILL RETURN
BUT NOT BE OVERLY DEEP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF VFR CIGS EXTENDING FROM EAST INDIANA
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW AND SHOULD REACH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. KEPT THE MENTION OF VFR CIGS AT FT WAYNE STARTING AT
15Z. SOME CONCERN FOR MVFR CIGS AT FWA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AS MVFR CIGS AND RAIN WAS NEARING FLINT MICH AT 06Z.
KEPT THE TAFS OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW AND WILL AWAIT LATER GUIDANCE AND
MONITOR RADAR OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 270610
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
210 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY WEATHER AND FAIR SKIES. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 30S. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MAIN
ITEMS OF INTEREST CENTERED ON TEMP/SKY COVER TRENDS TONIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE THROUGH PARENT UPPER CIRCULATION THIS EVENING. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND ONLY JUST AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CU HAS BEEN NOTED
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
COVERAGE OF THIS CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION INTO LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...FORCING WITH APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST/EAST SECTIONS THIS EVENING. A WEAK TO MODERATE GRADIENT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON FROST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN MINS FROM MID 30S WEST TO MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST.

LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPPER WAVE IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST QUEBEC AND SHOULD DROP INTO
NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHERN OHIO MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILES WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
SECOND WAVE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE SOLID LOW CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST/NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED
MIXING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHS TOMORROW FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THAT ARE IN THE BALLPARK TO THAT OBSERVED TODAY. COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN AS ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR MONDAY EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. GREATEST IMPACT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKY COVER
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKER. HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TOUCH AND EXPANDED
MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. FROST HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED WITH EXTENDED
PERIOD OF FROST POSSIBLE. LIMITED RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY WEDS NGT. PHASING OF SYSTEMS STILL EXPECTED BUT MAY END UP
MORE SOUTH OF THE REGION VS SE AS LARGER UPPER LOW SLOWER TO DEPART.
WITH THE AREA STILL GROSSLY LACKING MOISTURE...NOT LOOKING PROMISING
FOR SHOWERS WITH MODELS NOW BACKING OFF WEDS AND SHIFTING SOMEWHAT
TO WEDS NGT. HAVE KEPT WITH SLGT CHC POPS BUT SUSPECT LATER
FORECASTS WILL END UP REMOVING AS WELL.

TROUGHY PATTERN WILL HOLD INTO FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES AND THE AREA FINALLY SEES A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH SOME HINTS OF A MARGINAL SHOWER CHANCE. HAVE TONED DOWN
SUPERBLEND AND WENT WITH GENERAL SLGT CHC FOR AS MSTR WILL RETURN
BUT NOT BE OVERLY DEEP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF VFR CIGS EXTENDING FROM EAST INDIANA
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW AND SHOULD REACH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. KEPT THE MENTION OF VFR CIGS AT FT WAYNE STARTING AT
15Z. SOME CONCERN FOR MVFR CIGS AT FWA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AS MVFR CIGS AND RAIN WAS NEARING FLINT MICH AT 06Z.
KEPT THE TAFS OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW AND WILL AWAIT LATER GUIDANCE AND
MONITOR RADAR OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 270610
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
210 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY WEATHER AND FAIR SKIES. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 30S. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MAIN
ITEMS OF INTEREST CENTERED ON TEMP/SKY COVER TRENDS TONIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE THROUGH PARENT UPPER CIRCULATION THIS EVENING. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND ONLY JUST AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CU HAS BEEN NOTED
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
COVERAGE OF THIS CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION INTO LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...FORCING WITH APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST/EAST SECTIONS THIS EVENING. A WEAK TO MODERATE GRADIENT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON FROST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN MINS FROM MID 30S WEST TO MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST.

LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPPER WAVE IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST QUEBEC AND SHOULD DROP INTO
NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHERN OHIO MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILES WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
SECOND WAVE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE SOLID LOW CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST/NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED
MIXING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHS TOMORROW FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THAT ARE IN THE BALLPARK TO THAT OBSERVED TODAY. COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN AS ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR MONDAY EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. GREATEST IMPACT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKY COVER
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKER. HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TOUCH AND EXPANDED
MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. FROST HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED WITH EXTENDED
PERIOD OF FROST POSSIBLE. LIMITED RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY WEDS NGT. PHASING OF SYSTEMS STILL EXPECTED BUT MAY END UP
MORE SOUTH OF THE REGION VS SE AS LARGER UPPER LOW SLOWER TO DEPART.
WITH THE AREA STILL GROSSLY LACKING MOISTURE...NOT LOOKING PROMISING
FOR SHOWERS WITH MODELS NOW BACKING OFF WEDS AND SHIFTING SOMEWHAT
TO WEDS NGT. HAVE KEPT WITH SLGT CHC POPS BUT SUSPECT LATER
FORECASTS WILL END UP REMOVING AS WELL.

TROUGHY PATTERN WILL HOLD INTO FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES AND THE AREA FINALLY SEES A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH SOME HINTS OF A MARGINAL SHOWER CHANCE. HAVE TONED DOWN
SUPERBLEND AND WENT WITH GENERAL SLGT CHC FOR AS MSTR WILL RETURN
BUT NOT BE OVERLY DEEP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF VFR CIGS EXTENDING FROM EAST INDIANA
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW AND SHOULD REACH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. KEPT THE MENTION OF VFR CIGS AT FT WAYNE STARTING AT
15Z. SOME CONCERN FOR MVFR CIGS AT FWA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AS MVFR CIGS AND RAIN WAS NEARING FLINT MICH AT 06Z.
KEPT THE TAFS OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW AND WILL AWAIT LATER GUIDANCE AND
MONITOR RADAR OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 262320
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
720 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 550 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 30S
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MIDDLE 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MAIN
ITEMS OF INTEREST CENTERED ON TEMP/SKY COVER TRENDS TONIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE THROUGH PARENT UPPER CIRCULATION THIS EVENING. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND ONLY JUST AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CU HAS BEEN NOTED
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
COVERAGE OF THIS CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION INTO LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...FORCING WITH APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST/EAST SECTIONS THIS EVENING. A WEAK TO MODERATE GRADIENT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON FROST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN MINS FROM MID 30S WEST TO MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST.

LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPPER WAVE IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST QUEBEC AND SHOULD DROP INTO
NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHERN OHIO MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILES WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
SECOND WAVE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE SOLID LOW CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST/NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED
MIXING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHS TOMORROW FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THAT ARE IN THE BALLPARK TO THAT OBSERVED TODAY. COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN AS ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR MONDAY EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. GREATEST IMPACT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKY COVER
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKER. HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TOUCH AND EXPANDED
MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. FROST HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED WITH EXTENDED
PERIOD OF FROST POSSIBLE. LIMITED RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY WEDS NGT. PHASING OF SYSTEMS STILL EXPECTED BUT MAY END UP
MORE SOUTH OF THE REGION VS SE AS LARGER UPPER LOW SLOWER TO DEPART.
WITH THE AREA STILL GROSSLY LACKING MOISTURE...NOT LOOKING PROMISING
FOR SHOWERS WITH MODELS NOW BACKING OFF WEDS AND SHIFTING SOMEWHAT
TO WEDS NGT. HAVE KEPT WITH SLGT CHC POPS BUT SUSPECT LATER
FORECASTS WILL END UP REMOVING AS WELL.

TROUGHY PATTERN WILL HOLD INTO FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES AND THE AREA FINALLY SEES A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH SOME HINTS OF A MARGINAL SHOWER CHANCE. HAVE TONED DOWN
SUPERBLEND AND WENT WITH GENERAL SLGT CHC FOR AS MSTR WILL RETURN
BUT NOT BE OVERLY DEEP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 716 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

DIURNAL CU FIELD WAS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
LAKE BREEZE HAS WORKED WELL INLAND AND ALSO HELPED TO CLEAR SKIES.
TWO SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE INTO THE AREA...ONE LATER THIS EVENING
AND THE SECOND MONDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. FIRST WAVE WILL
BRING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK SOUTH WITH KFWA ON WESTERN FRINGE.
STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. STRONGER WAVE STILL LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BRING SOME MFVR CIGS TO THE REGION BUT
STILL NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS RESTRICTION. WILL SEE HOW CLOUD
BASES BEHAVE UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT AND STAY OPTIMISTIC WITH VFR FOR
NOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 262320
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
720 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 550 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 30S
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MIDDLE 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MAIN
ITEMS OF INTEREST CENTERED ON TEMP/SKY COVER TRENDS TONIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE THROUGH PARENT UPPER CIRCULATION THIS EVENING. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND ONLY JUST AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CU HAS BEEN NOTED
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
COVERAGE OF THIS CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION INTO LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...FORCING WITH APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST/EAST SECTIONS THIS EVENING. A WEAK TO MODERATE GRADIENT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON FROST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN MINS FROM MID 30S WEST TO MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST.

LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPPER WAVE IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST QUEBEC AND SHOULD DROP INTO
NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHERN OHIO MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILES WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
SECOND WAVE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE SOLID LOW CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST/NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED
MIXING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHS TOMORROW FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THAT ARE IN THE BALLPARK TO THAT OBSERVED TODAY. COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN AS ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR MONDAY EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. GREATEST IMPACT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKY COVER
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKER. HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TOUCH AND EXPANDED
MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. FROST HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED WITH EXTENDED
PERIOD OF FROST POSSIBLE. LIMITED RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY WEDS NGT. PHASING OF SYSTEMS STILL EXPECTED BUT MAY END UP
MORE SOUTH OF THE REGION VS SE AS LARGER UPPER LOW SLOWER TO DEPART.
WITH THE AREA STILL GROSSLY LACKING MOISTURE...NOT LOOKING PROMISING
FOR SHOWERS WITH MODELS NOW BACKING OFF WEDS AND SHIFTING SOMEWHAT
TO WEDS NGT. HAVE KEPT WITH SLGT CHC POPS BUT SUSPECT LATER
FORECASTS WILL END UP REMOVING AS WELL.

TROUGHY PATTERN WILL HOLD INTO FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES AND THE AREA FINALLY SEES A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH SOME HINTS OF A MARGINAL SHOWER CHANCE. HAVE TONED DOWN
SUPERBLEND AND WENT WITH GENERAL SLGT CHC FOR AS MSTR WILL RETURN
BUT NOT BE OVERLY DEEP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 716 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

DIURNAL CU FIELD WAS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
LAKE BREEZE HAS WORKED WELL INLAND AND ALSO HELPED TO CLEAR SKIES.
TWO SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE INTO THE AREA...ONE LATER THIS EVENING
AND THE SECOND MONDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. FIRST WAVE WILL
BRING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK SOUTH WITH KFWA ON WESTERN FRINGE.
STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. STRONGER WAVE STILL LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BRING SOME MFVR CIGS TO THE REGION BUT
STILL NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS RESTRICTION. WILL SEE HOW CLOUD
BASES BEHAVE UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT AND STAY OPTIMISTIC WITH VFR FOR
NOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 262320
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
720 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 550 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 30S
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MIDDLE 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MAIN
ITEMS OF INTEREST CENTERED ON TEMP/SKY COVER TRENDS TONIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE THROUGH PARENT UPPER CIRCULATION THIS EVENING. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND ONLY JUST AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CU HAS BEEN NOTED
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
COVERAGE OF THIS CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION INTO LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...FORCING WITH APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST/EAST SECTIONS THIS EVENING. A WEAK TO MODERATE GRADIENT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON FROST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN MINS FROM MID 30S WEST TO MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST.

LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPPER WAVE IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST QUEBEC AND SHOULD DROP INTO
NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHERN OHIO MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILES WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
SECOND WAVE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE SOLID LOW CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST/NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED
MIXING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHS TOMORROW FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THAT ARE IN THE BALLPARK TO THAT OBSERVED TODAY. COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN AS ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR MONDAY EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. GREATEST IMPACT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKY COVER
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKER. HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TOUCH AND EXPANDED
MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. FROST HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED WITH EXTENDED
PERIOD OF FROST POSSIBLE. LIMITED RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY WEDS NGT. PHASING OF SYSTEMS STILL EXPECTED BUT MAY END UP
MORE SOUTH OF THE REGION VS SE AS LARGER UPPER LOW SLOWER TO DEPART.
WITH THE AREA STILL GROSSLY LACKING MOISTURE...NOT LOOKING PROMISING
FOR SHOWERS WITH MODELS NOW BACKING OFF WEDS AND SHIFTING SOMEWHAT
TO WEDS NGT. HAVE KEPT WITH SLGT CHC POPS BUT SUSPECT LATER
FORECASTS WILL END UP REMOVING AS WELL.

TROUGHY PATTERN WILL HOLD INTO FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES AND THE AREA FINALLY SEES A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH SOME HINTS OF A MARGINAL SHOWER CHANCE. HAVE TONED DOWN
SUPERBLEND AND WENT WITH GENERAL SLGT CHC FOR AS MSTR WILL RETURN
BUT NOT BE OVERLY DEEP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 716 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

DIURNAL CU FIELD WAS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
LAKE BREEZE HAS WORKED WELL INLAND AND ALSO HELPED TO CLEAR SKIES.
TWO SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE INTO THE AREA...ONE LATER THIS EVENING
AND THE SECOND MONDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. FIRST WAVE WILL
BRING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK SOUTH WITH KFWA ON WESTERN FRINGE.
STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. STRONGER WAVE STILL LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BRING SOME MFVR CIGS TO THE REGION BUT
STILL NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS RESTRICTION. WILL SEE HOW CLOUD
BASES BEHAVE UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT AND STAY OPTIMISTIC WITH VFR FOR
NOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 262320
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
720 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 550 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 30S
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MIDDLE 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MAIN
ITEMS OF INTEREST CENTERED ON TEMP/SKY COVER TRENDS TONIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE THROUGH PARENT UPPER CIRCULATION THIS EVENING. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND ONLY JUST AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CU HAS BEEN NOTED
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
COVERAGE OF THIS CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION INTO LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...FORCING WITH APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST/EAST SECTIONS THIS EVENING. A WEAK TO MODERATE GRADIENT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON FROST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN MINS FROM MID 30S WEST TO MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST.

LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPPER WAVE IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST QUEBEC AND SHOULD DROP INTO
NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHERN OHIO MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILES WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
SECOND WAVE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE SOLID LOW CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST/NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED
MIXING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHS TOMORROW FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THAT ARE IN THE BALLPARK TO THAT OBSERVED TODAY. COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN AS ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR MONDAY EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. GREATEST IMPACT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKY COVER
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKER. HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TOUCH AND EXPANDED
MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. FROST HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED WITH EXTENDED
PERIOD OF FROST POSSIBLE. LIMITED RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY WEDS NGT. PHASING OF SYSTEMS STILL EXPECTED BUT MAY END UP
MORE SOUTH OF THE REGION VS SE AS LARGER UPPER LOW SLOWER TO DEPART.
WITH THE AREA STILL GROSSLY LACKING MOISTURE...NOT LOOKING PROMISING
FOR SHOWERS WITH MODELS NOW BACKING OFF WEDS AND SHIFTING SOMEWHAT
TO WEDS NGT. HAVE KEPT WITH SLGT CHC POPS BUT SUSPECT LATER
FORECASTS WILL END UP REMOVING AS WELL.

TROUGHY PATTERN WILL HOLD INTO FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES AND THE AREA FINALLY SEES A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH SOME HINTS OF A MARGINAL SHOWER CHANCE. HAVE TONED DOWN
SUPERBLEND AND WENT WITH GENERAL SLGT CHC FOR AS MSTR WILL RETURN
BUT NOT BE OVERLY DEEP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 716 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

DIURNAL CU FIELD WAS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
LAKE BREEZE HAS WORKED WELL INLAND AND ALSO HELPED TO CLEAR SKIES.
TWO SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE INTO THE AREA...ONE LATER THIS EVENING
AND THE SECOND MONDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. FIRST WAVE WILL
BRING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK SOUTH WITH KFWA ON WESTERN FRINGE.
STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. STRONGER WAVE STILL LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BRING SOME MFVR CIGS TO THE REGION BUT
STILL NOT READY TO JUMP ON THIS RESTRICTION. WILL SEE HOW CLOUD
BASES BEHAVE UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT AND STAY OPTIMISTIC WITH VFR FOR
NOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 262202
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
602 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 550 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 30S
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MIDDLE 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MAIN
ITEMS OF INTEREST CENTERED ON TEMP/SKY COVER TRENDS TONIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE THROUGH PARENT UPPER CIRCULATION THIS EVENING. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND ONLY JUST AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CU HAS BEEN NOTED
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
COVERAGE OF THIS CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION INTO LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...FORCING WITH APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST/EAST SECTIONS THIS EVENING. A WEAK TO MODERATE GRADIENT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON FROST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN MINS FROM MID 30S WEST TO MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST.

LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPPER WAVE IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST QUEBEC AND SHOULD DROP INTO
NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHERN OHIO MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILES WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
SECOND WAVE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE SOLID LOW CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST/NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED
MIXING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHS TOMORROW FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THAT ARE IN THE BALLPARK TO THAT OBSERVED TODAY. COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN AS ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR MONDAY EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. GREATEST IMPACT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKY COVER
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKER. HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TOUCH AND EXPANDED
MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. FROST HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED WITH EXTENDED
PERIOD OF FROST POSSIBLE. LIMITED RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY WEDS NGT. PHASING OF SYSTEMS STILL EXPECTED BUT MAY END UP
MORE SOUTH OF THE REGION VS SE AS LARGER UPPER LOW SLOWER TO DEPART.
WITH THE AREA STILL GROSSLY LACKING MOISTURE...NOT LOOKING PROMISING
FOR SHOWERS WITH MODELS NOW BACKING OFF WEDS AND SHIFTING SOMEWHAT
TO WEDS NGT. HAVE KEPT WITH SLGT CHC POPS BUT SUSPECT LATER
FORECASTS WILL END UP REMOVING AS WELL.

TROUGHY PATTERN WILL HOLD INTO FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES AND THE AREA FINALLY SEES A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH SOME HINTS OF A MARGINAL SHOWER CHANCE. HAVE TONED DOWN
SUPERBLEND AND WENT WITH GENERAL SLGT CHC FOR AS MSTR WILL RETURN
BUT NOT BE OVERLY DEEP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SERIES OF VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING SOME STRATOCU TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST INDIANA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. AFTER DIURNAL VFR CU THIS
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO STRONGER VORT MAX DROPPING OUT
OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO FOR MONDAY MORNING. MVFR ARE A CIGS LATER
MONDAY MORNING TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD...BUT
WILL HOLD WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 18Z TAFS. IN TERMS OF
WINDS...LAKE ENHANCEMENT HAS LED TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 15-20 KNOTS AT KSBN WITH MIXED LAYER SUPPORTING GUSTS TO AROUND
15 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY EVENING...BUT
MODERATE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT SHOULD MAINTAIN WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 262202
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
602 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 550 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 30S
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MIDDLE 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MAIN
ITEMS OF INTEREST CENTERED ON TEMP/SKY COVER TRENDS TONIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE THROUGH PARENT UPPER CIRCULATION THIS EVENING. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND ONLY JUST AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CU HAS BEEN NOTED
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
COVERAGE OF THIS CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION INTO LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...FORCING WITH APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST/EAST SECTIONS THIS EVENING. A WEAK TO MODERATE GRADIENT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON FROST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN MINS FROM MID 30S WEST TO MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST.

LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPPER WAVE IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST QUEBEC AND SHOULD DROP INTO
NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHERN OHIO MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILES WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
SECOND WAVE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE SOLID LOW CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST/NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED
MIXING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHS TOMORROW FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THAT ARE IN THE BALLPARK TO THAT OBSERVED TODAY. COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN AS ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR MONDAY EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. GREATEST IMPACT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKY COVER
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKER. HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TOUCH AND EXPANDED
MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. FROST HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED WITH EXTENDED
PERIOD OF FROST POSSIBLE. LIMITED RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY WEDS NGT. PHASING OF SYSTEMS STILL EXPECTED BUT MAY END UP
MORE SOUTH OF THE REGION VS SE AS LARGER UPPER LOW SLOWER TO DEPART.
WITH THE AREA STILL GROSSLY LACKING MOISTURE...NOT LOOKING PROMISING
FOR SHOWERS WITH MODELS NOW BACKING OFF WEDS AND SHIFTING SOMEWHAT
TO WEDS NGT. HAVE KEPT WITH SLGT CHC POPS BUT SUSPECT LATER
FORECASTS WILL END UP REMOVING AS WELL.

TROUGHY PATTERN WILL HOLD INTO FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES AND THE AREA FINALLY SEES A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH SOME HINTS OF A MARGINAL SHOWER CHANCE. HAVE TONED DOWN
SUPERBLEND AND WENT WITH GENERAL SLGT CHC FOR AS MSTR WILL RETURN
BUT NOT BE OVERLY DEEP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SERIES OF VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING SOME STRATOCU TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST INDIANA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. AFTER DIURNAL VFR CU THIS
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO STRONGER VORT MAX DROPPING OUT
OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO FOR MONDAY MORNING. MVFR ARE A CIGS LATER
MONDAY MORNING TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD...BUT
WILL HOLD WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 18Z TAFS. IN TERMS OF
WINDS...LAKE ENHANCEMENT HAS LED TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 15-20 KNOTS AT KSBN WITH MIXED LAYER SUPPORTING GUSTS TO AROUND
15 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY EVENING...BUT
MODERATE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT SHOULD MAINTAIN WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 261953
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
353 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE
REGION EARLY THIS WEEK PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PROVIDE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON MONDAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA...AND NORTHWEST OHIO. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER
50S...ALTHOUGH COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MAIN
ITEMS OF INTEREST CENTERED ON TEMP/SKY COVER TRENDS TONIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE THROUGH PARENT UPPER CIRCULATION THIS EVENING. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND ONLY JUST AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CU HAS BEEN NOTED
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
COVERAGE OF THIS CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION INTO LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...FORCING WITH APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST/EAST SECTIONS THIS EVENING. A WEAK TO MODERATE GRADIENT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON FROST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN MINS FROM MID 30S WEST TO MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST.

LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPPER WAVE IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST QUEBEC AND SHOULD DROP INTO
NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHERN OHIO MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILES WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
SECOND WAVE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE SOLID LOW CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST/NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED
MIXING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHS TOMORROW FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THAT ARE IN THE BALLPARK TO THAT OBSERVED TODAY. COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN AS ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR MONDAY EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. GREATEST IMPACT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKY COVER
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKER. HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TOUCH AND EXPANDED
MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. FROST HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED WITH EXTENDED
PERIOD OF FROST POSSIBLE. LIMITED RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY WEDS NGT. PHASING OF SYSTEMS STILL EXPECTED BUT MAY END UP
MORE SOUTH OF THE REGION VS SE AS LARGER UPPER LOW SLOWER TO DEPART.
WITH THE AREA STILL GROSSLY LACKING MOISTURE...NOT LOOKING PROMISING
FOR SHOWERS WITH MODELS NOW BACKING OFF WEDS AND SHIFTING SOMEWHAT
TO WEDS NGT. HAVE KEPT WITH SLGT CHC POPS BUT SUSPECT LATER
FORECASTS WILL END UP REMOVING AS WELL.

TROUGHY PATTERN WILL HOLD INTO FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES AND THE AREA FINALLY SEES A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH SOME HINTS OF A MARGINAL SHOWER CHANCE. HAVE TONED DOWN
SUPERBLEND AND WENT WITH GENERAL SLGT CHC FOR AS MSTR WILL RETURN
BUT NOT BE OVERLY DEEP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SERIES OF VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING SOME STRATOCU TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST INDIANA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. AFTER DIURNAL VFR CU THIS
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO STRONGER VORT MAX DROPPING OUT
OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO FOR MONDAY MORNING. MVFR ARE A CIGS LATER
MONDAY MORNING TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD...BUT
WILL HOLD WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 18Z TAFS. IN TERMS OF
WINDS...LAKE ENHANCEMENT HAS LED TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 15-20 KNOTS AT KSBN WITH MIXED LAYER SUPPORTING GUSTS TO AROUND
15 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY EVENING...BUT
MODERATE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT SHOULD MAINTAIN WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 261953
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
353 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE
REGION EARLY THIS WEEK PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PROVIDE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON MONDAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA...AND NORTHWEST OHIO. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER
50S...ALTHOUGH COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MAIN
ITEMS OF INTEREST CENTERED ON TEMP/SKY COVER TRENDS TONIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE THROUGH PARENT UPPER CIRCULATION THIS EVENING. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND ONLY JUST AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CU HAS BEEN NOTED
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
COVERAGE OF THIS CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION INTO LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...FORCING WITH APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST/EAST SECTIONS THIS EVENING. A WEAK TO MODERATE GRADIENT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON FROST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN MINS FROM MID 30S WEST TO MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST.

LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPPER WAVE IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST QUEBEC AND SHOULD DROP INTO
NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHERN OHIO MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILES WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
SECOND WAVE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE SOLID LOW CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST/NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED
MIXING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHS TOMORROW FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THAT ARE IN THE BALLPARK TO THAT OBSERVED TODAY. COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN AS ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR MONDAY EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. GREATEST IMPACT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKY COVER
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKER. HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TOUCH AND EXPANDED
MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. FROST HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED WITH EXTENDED
PERIOD OF FROST POSSIBLE. LIMITED RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY WEDS NGT. PHASING OF SYSTEMS STILL EXPECTED BUT MAY END UP
MORE SOUTH OF THE REGION VS SE AS LARGER UPPER LOW SLOWER TO DEPART.
WITH THE AREA STILL GROSSLY LACKING MOISTURE...NOT LOOKING PROMISING
FOR SHOWERS WITH MODELS NOW BACKING OFF WEDS AND SHIFTING SOMEWHAT
TO WEDS NGT. HAVE KEPT WITH SLGT CHC POPS BUT SUSPECT LATER
FORECASTS WILL END UP REMOVING AS WELL.

TROUGHY PATTERN WILL HOLD INTO FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES AND THE AREA FINALLY SEES A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH SOME HINTS OF A MARGINAL SHOWER CHANCE. HAVE TONED DOWN
SUPERBLEND AND WENT WITH GENERAL SLGT CHC FOR AS MSTR WILL RETURN
BUT NOT BE OVERLY DEEP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SERIES OF VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING SOME STRATOCU TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST INDIANA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. AFTER DIURNAL VFR CU THIS
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO STRONGER VORT MAX DROPPING OUT
OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO FOR MONDAY MORNING. MVFR ARE A CIGS LATER
MONDAY MORNING TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD...BUT
WILL HOLD WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 18Z TAFS. IN TERMS OF
WINDS...LAKE ENHANCEMENT HAS LED TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 15-20 KNOTS AT KSBN WITH MIXED LAYER SUPPORTING GUSTS TO AROUND
15 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY EVENING...BUT
MODERATE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT SHOULD MAINTAIN WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 261830
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
230 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA.
SOME CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND LINGER OVER EAST
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S. LOWS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH FROST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE BASE OF A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO
ALLOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING... ESPECIALLY OVER EAST AREAS. OTHERWISE...WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING...WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
REACHING UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND BECOME
LIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FROST OVER WEST AREAS WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO WITHIN 1 TO 2
DEGREES OF FREEZING OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INT NORTHWEST
INDIANA. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF A FROST ADVISORY FOR
NOW GIVEN MORE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND GIVEN TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN
INTO THE 20S ON 2 OF THE PAST 3 NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TROF ROTATING AROUND DEEP LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY. SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES... ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA... BUT MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE LACKING FOR ANY SHOWERS. TEMPS
SHOULD MIX OUT INTO THE M50S... EXCEPT ONLY IN THE M-U40S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SOME STRATO CU MAY PERSIST MONDAY
NIGHT... ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CYCLONIC. WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NW AND A COOL START TO THE NIGHT... EXPECT PATCHY FROST OVERNIGHT NW
WITH MINS IN THE L30S... RANGING TO AROUND 40 SE. WK UPR RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TUE PROVIDING CONTD FAIR WX WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONT TO SUGGEST UPR LOW OVER SWRN CONUS TODAY
WILL MOVE EAST TO KY/TN BY WED AND MERGE WITH SECOND SYSTEM DROPPING
S-SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA FORMING A FAIRLY DEEP TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS THU. STILL SGFNT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS TROF
BUT DECENT AGREEMENT THAT BEST MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE E-SE OF OUR
CWA SO MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS IN THIS TIMEFRAME. CAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DROPPING S-SE FROM CANADA SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPS REMAINING A BIT BLO NORMAL WED-THU.

UPR RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE GRTLKS FRIDAY AS ERN CONUS TROF
MOVES TO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FAIR WX WITH HIGHS A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE U60S. WARMUP SHOULD CONT SATURDAY AS A
SHRTWV MOVES EAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST/GRTLKS.
SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT THIS SYSTEM...
BUT APPEARS WORTHY OF LEAVING LOW SUPERBLEND POPS AND ADDING SLIGHT
CHC OF -RW TO FCST FOR FRI NGT-SAT TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SERIES OF VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING SOME STRATOCU TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST INDIANA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. AFTER DIURNAL VFR CU THIS
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO STRONGER VORT MAX DROPPING OUT
OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO FOR MONDAY MORNING. MVFR ARE A CIGS LATER
MONDAY MORNING TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD...BUT
WILL HOLD WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 18Z TAFS. IN TERMS OF
WINDS...LAKE ENHANCEMENT HAS LED TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 15-20 KNOTS AT KSBN WITH MIXED LAYER SUPPORTING GUSTS TO AROUND
15 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY EVENING...BUT
MODERATE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT SHOULD MAINTAIN WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 261830
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
230 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA.
SOME CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND LINGER OVER EAST
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S. LOWS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH FROST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE BASE OF A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO
ALLOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING... ESPECIALLY OVER EAST AREAS. OTHERWISE...WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING...WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
REACHING UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND BECOME
LIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FROST OVER WEST AREAS WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO WITHIN 1 TO 2
DEGREES OF FREEZING OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INT NORTHWEST
INDIANA. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF A FROST ADVISORY FOR
NOW GIVEN MORE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND GIVEN TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN
INTO THE 20S ON 2 OF THE PAST 3 NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TROF ROTATING AROUND DEEP LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY. SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES... ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA... BUT MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE LACKING FOR ANY SHOWERS. TEMPS
SHOULD MIX OUT INTO THE M50S... EXCEPT ONLY IN THE M-U40S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SOME STRATO CU MAY PERSIST MONDAY
NIGHT... ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CYCLONIC. WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NW AND A COOL START TO THE NIGHT... EXPECT PATCHY FROST OVERNIGHT NW
WITH MINS IN THE L30S... RANGING TO AROUND 40 SE. WK UPR RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TUE PROVIDING CONTD FAIR WX WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONT TO SUGGEST UPR LOW OVER SWRN CONUS TODAY
WILL MOVE EAST TO KY/TN BY WED AND MERGE WITH SECOND SYSTEM DROPPING
S-SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA FORMING A FAIRLY DEEP TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS THU. STILL SGFNT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS TROF
BUT DECENT AGREEMENT THAT BEST MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE E-SE OF OUR
CWA SO MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS IN THIS TIMEFRAME. CAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DROPPING S-SE FROM CANADA SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPS REMAINING A BIT BLO NORMAL WED-THU.

UPR RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE GRTLKS FRIDAY AS ERN CONUS TROF
MOVES TO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FAIR WX WITH HIGHS A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE U60S. WARMUP SHOULD CONT SATURDAY AS A
SHRTWV MOVES EAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST/GRTLKS.
SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT THIS SYSTEM...
BUT APPEARS WORTHY OF LEAVING LOW SUPERBLEND POPS AND ADDING SLIGHT
CHC OF -RW TO FCST FOR FRI NGT-SAT TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SERIES OF VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING SOME STRATOCU TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST INDIANA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. AFTER DIURNAL VFR CU THIS
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO STRONGER VORT MAX DROPPING OUT
OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO FOR MONDAY MORNING. MVFR ARE A CIGS LATER
MONDAY MORNING TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD...BUT
WILL HOLD WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 18Z TAFS. IN TERMS OF
WINDS...LAKE ENHANCEMENT HAS LED TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 15-20 KNOTS AT KSBN WITH MIXED LAYER SUPPORTING GUSTS TO AROUND
15 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY EVENING...BUT
MODERATE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT SHOULD MAINTAIN WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 261830
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
230 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA.
SOME CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND LINGER OVER EAST
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S. LOWS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH FROST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE BASE OF A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO
ALLOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING... ESPECIALLY OVER EAST AREAS. OTHERWISE...WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING...WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
REACHING UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND BECOME
LIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FROST OVER WEST AREAS WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO WITHIN 1 TO 2
DEGREES OF FREEZING OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INT NORTHWEST
INDIANA. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF A FROST ADVISORY FOR
NOW GIVEN MORE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND GIVEN TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN
INTO THE 20S ON 2 OF THE PAST 3 NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TROF ROTATING AROUND DEEP LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY. SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES... ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA... BUT MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE LACKING FOR ANY SHOWERS. TEMPS
SHOULD MIX OUT INTO THE M50S... EXCEPT ONLY IN THE M-U40S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SOME STRATO CU MAY PERSIST MONDAY
NIGHT... ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CYCLONIC. WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NW AND A COOL START TO THE NIGHT... EXPECT PATCHY FROST OVERNIGHT NW
WITH MINS IN THE L30S... RANGING TO AROUND 40 SE. WK UPR RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TUE PROVIDING CONTD FAIR WX WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONT TO SUGGEST UPR LOW OVER SWRN CONUS TODAY
WILL MOVE EAST TO KY/TN BY WED AND MERGE WITH SECOND SYSTEM DROPPING
S-SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA FORMING A FAIRLY DEEP TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS THU. STILL SGFNT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS TROF
BUT DECENT AGREEMENT THAT BEST MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE E-SE OF OUR
CWA SO MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS IN THIS TIMEFRAME. CAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DROPPING S-SE FROM CANADA SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPS REMAINING A BIT BLO NORMAL WED-THU.

UPR RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE GRTLKS FRIDAY AS ERN CONUS TROF
MOVES TO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FAIR WX WITH HIGHS A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE U60S. WARMUP SHOULD CONT SATURDAY AS A
SHRTWV MOVES EAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST/GRTLKS.
SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT THIS SYSTEM...
BUT APPEARS WORTHY OF LEAVING LOW SUPERBLEND POPS AND ADDING SLIGHT
CHC OF -RW TO FCST FOR FRI NGT-SAT TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SERIES OF VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING SOME STRATOCU TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST INDIANA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. AFTER DIURNAL VFR CU THIS
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO STRONGER VORT MAX DROPPING OUT
OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO FOR MONDAY MORNING. MVFR ARE A CIGS LATER
MONDAY MORNING TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD...BUT
WILL HOLD WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 18Z TAFS. IN TERMS OF
WINDS...LAKE ENHANCEMENT HAS LED TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 15-20 KNOTS AT KSBN WITH MIXED LAYER SUPPORTING GUSTS TO AROUND
15 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY EVENING...BUT
MODERATE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT SHOULD MAINTAIN WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 261830
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
230 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA.
SOME CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND LINGER OVER EAST
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S. LOWS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH FROST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE BASE OF A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO
ALLOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING... ESPECIALLY OVER EAST AREAS. OTHERWISE...WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING...WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
REACHING UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND BECOME
LIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FROST OVER WEST AREAS WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO WITHIN 1 TO 2
DEGREES OF FREEZING OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INT NORTHWEST
INDIANA. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF A FROST ADVISORY FOR
NOW GIVEN MORE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND GIVEN TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN
INTO THE 20S ON 2 OF THE PAST 3 NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TROF ROTATING AROUND DEEP LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY. SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES... ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA... BUT MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE LACKING FOR ANY SHOWERS. TEMPS
SHOULD MIX OUT INTO THE M50S... EXCEPT ONLY IN THE M-U40S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SOME STRATO CU MAY PERSIST MONDAY
NIGHT... ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CYCLONIC. WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NW AND A COOL START TO THE NIGHT... EXPECT PATCHY FROST OVERNIGHT NW
WITH MINS IN THE L30S... RANGING TO AROUND 40 SE. WK UPR RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TUE PROVIDING CONTD FAIR WX WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONT TO SUGGEST UPR LOW OVER SWRN CONUS TODAY
WILL MOVE EAST TO KY/TN BY WED AND MERGE WITH SECOND SYSTEM DROPPING
S-SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA FORMING A FAIRLY DEEP TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS THU. STILL SGFNT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS TROF
BUT DECENT AGREEMENT THAT BEST MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE E-SE OF OUR
CWA SO MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS IN THIS TIMEFRAME. CAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DROPPING S-SE FROM CANADA SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPS REMAINING A BIT BLO NORMAL WED-THU.

UPR RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE GRTLKS FRIDAY AS ERN CONUS TROF
MOVES TO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FAIR WX WITH HIGHS A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE U60S. WARMUP SHOULD CONT SATURDAY AS A
SHRTWV MOVES EAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST/GRTLKS.
SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT THIS SYSTEM...
BUT APPEARS WORTHY OF LEAVING LOW SUPERBLEND POPS AND ADDING SLIGHT
CHC OF -RW TO FCST FOR FRI NGT-SAT TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SERIES OF VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING SOME STRATOCU TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST INDIANA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. AFTER DIURNAL VFR CU THIS
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO STRONGER VORT MAX DROPPING OUT
OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO FOR MONDAY MORNING. MVFR ARE A CIGS LATER
MONDAY MORNING TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD...BUT
WILL HOLD WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 18Z TAFS. IN TERMS OF
WINDS...LAKE ENHANCEMENT HAS LED TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 15-20 KNOTS AT KSBN WITH MIXED LAYER SUPPORTING GUSTS TO AROUND
15 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY EVENING...BUT
MODERATE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT SHOULD MAINTAIN WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 260944
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
544 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA.
SOME CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND LINGER OVER EAST
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S. LOWS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH FROST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE BASE OF A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO
ALLOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING... ESPECIALLY OVER EAST AREAS. OTHERWISE...WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING...WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
REACHING UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND BECOME
LIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FROST OVER WEST AREAS WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO WITHIN 1 TO 2
DEGREES OF FREEZING OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INT NORTHWEST
INDIANA. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF A FROST ADVISORY FOR
NOW GIVEN MORE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND GIVEN TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN
INTO THE 20S ON 2 OF THE PAST 3 NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TROF ROTATING AROUND DEEP LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY. SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES... ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA... BUT MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE LACKING FOR ANY SHOWERS. TEMPS
SHOULD MIX OUT INTO THE M50S... EXCEPT ONLY IN THE M-U40S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SOME STRATO CU MAY PERSIST MONDAY
NIGHT... ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CYCLONIC. WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NW AND A COOL START TO THE NIGHT... EXPECT PATCHY FROST OVERNIGHT NW
WITH MINS IN THE L30S... RANGING TO AROUND 40 SE. WK UPR RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TUE PROVIDING CONTD FAIR WX WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONT TO SUGGEST UPR LOW OVER SWRN CONUS TODAY
WILL MOVE EAST TO KY/TN BY WED AND MERGE WITH SECOND SYSTEM DROPPING
S-SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA FORMING A FAIRLY DEEP TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS THU. STILL SGFNT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS TROF
BUT DECENT AGREEMENT THAT BEST MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE E-SE OF OUR
CWA SO MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS IN THIS TIMEFRAME. CAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DROPPING S-SE FROM CANADA SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPS REMAINING A BIT BLO NORMAL WED-THU.

UPR RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE GRTLKS FRIDAY AS ERN CONUS TROF
MOVES TO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FAIR WX WITH HIGHS A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE U60S. WARMUP SHOULD CONT SATURDAY AS A
SHRTWV MOVES EAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST/GRTLKS.
SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT THIS SYSTEM...
BUT APPEARS WORTHY OF LEAVING LOW SUPERBLEND POPS AND ADDING SLIGHT
CHC OF -RW TO FCST FOR FRI NGT-SAT TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS PERIOD...WITH COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE BASE OF A WEAK
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO ALLOW VFR CU TO BECOME A CEILING LATER
TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST AREAS
SO HAVE INCLUDED FT WAYNE WITH A VFR BROKEN CEILING.
OTHERWISE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING...WINDS WILL PICK UP
SOME THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS REACHING 17 TO 20 KTS. WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 260944
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
544 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA.
SOME CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND LINGER OVER EAST
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S. LOWS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH FROST
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE BASE OF A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO
ALLOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING... ESPECIALLY OVER EAST AREAS. OTHERWISE...WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING...WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
REACHING UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND BECOME
LIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FROST OVER WEST AREAS WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO WITHIN 1 TO 2
DEGREES OF FREEZING OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INT NORTHWEST
INDIANA. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF A FROST ADVISORY FOR
NOW GIVEN MORE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND GIVEN TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN
INTO THE 20S ON 2 OF THE PAST 3 NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TROF ROTATING AROUND DEEP LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY. SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES... ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA... BUT MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE LACKING FOR ANY SHOWERS. TEMPS
SHOULD MIX OUT INTO THE M50S... EXCEPT ONLY IN THE M-U40S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SOME STRATO CU MAY PERSIST MONDAY
NIGHT... ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CYCLONIC. WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NW AND A COOL START TO THE NIGHT... EXPECT PATCHY FROST OVERNIGHT NW
WITH MINS IN THE L30S... RANGING TO AROUND 40 SE. WK UPR RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TUE PROVIDING CONTD FAIR WX WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONT TO SUGGEST UPR LOW OVER SWRN CONUS TODAY
WILL MOVE EAST TO KY/TN BY WED AND MERGE WITH SECOND SYSTEM DROPPING
S-SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA FORMING A FAIRLY DEEP TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS THU. STILL SGFNT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS TROF
BUT DECENT AGREEMENT THAT BEST MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE E-SE OF OUR
CWA SO MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS IN THIS TIMEFRAME. CAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DROPPING S-SE FROM CANADA SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPS REMAINING A BIT BLO NORMAL WED-THU.

UPR RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE GRTLKS FRIDAY AS ERN CONUS TROF
MOVES TO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FAIR WX WITH HIGHS A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE U60S. WARMUP SHOULD CONT SATURDAY AS A
SHRTWV MOVES EAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST/GRTLKS.
SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT THIS SYSTEM...
BUT APPEARS WORTHY OF LEAVING LOW SUPERBLEND POPS AND ADDING SLIGHT
CHC OF -RW TO FCST FOR FRI NGT-SAT TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS PERIOD...WITH COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE BASE OF A WEAK
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO ALLOW VFR CU TO BECOME A CEILING LATER
TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST AREAS
SO HAVE INCLUDED FT WAYNE WITH A VFR BROKEN CEILING.
OTHERWISE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING...WINDS WILL PICK UP
SOME THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS REACHING 17 TO 20 KTS. WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 260820
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
420 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA.
SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER EAST AREA. HIGH TODAY WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S. LOWS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE BASE OF A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO
ALLOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING... ESPECIALLY OVER EAST AREAS. OTHERWISE...WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING...WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
REACHING UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND BECOME
LIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FROST OVER WEST AREAS WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO WITHIN 1 TO 2
DEGREES OF FREEZING OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INT NORTHWEST
INDIANA. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF A FROST ADVISORY FOR
NOW GIVEN MORE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND GIVEN TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN
INTO THE 20S ON 2 OF THE PAST 3 NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TROF ROTATING AROUND DEEP LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY. SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES... ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA... BUT MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE LACKING FOR ANY SHOWERS. TEMPS
SHOULD MIX OUT INTO THE M50S... EXCEPT ONLY IN THE M-U40S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SOME STRATO CU MAY PERSIST MONDAY
NIGHT... ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CYCLONIC. WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NW AND A COOL START TO THE NIGHT... EXPECT PATCHY FROST OVERNIGHT NW
WITH MINS IN THE L30S... RANGING TO AROUND 40 SE. WK UPR RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TUE PROVIDING CONTD FAIR WX WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONT TO SUGGEST UPR LOW OVER SWRN CONUS TODAY
WILL MOVE EAST TO KY/TN BY WED AND MERGE WITH SECOND SYSTEM DROPPING
S-SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA FORMING A FAIRLY DEEP TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS THU. STILL SGFNT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS TROF
BUT DECENT AGREEMENT THAT BEST MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE E-SE OF OUR
CWA SO MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS IN THIS TIMEFRAME. CAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DROPPING S-SE FROM CANADA SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPS REMAINING A BIT BLO NORMAL WED-THU.

UPR RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE GRTLKS FRIDAY AS ERN CONUS TROF
MOVES TO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FAIR WX WITH HIGHS A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE U60S. WARMUP SHOULD CONT SATURDAY AS A
SHRTWV MOVES EAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST/GRTLKS.
SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT THIS SYSTEM...
BUT APPEARS WORTHY OF LEAVING LOW SUPERBLEND POPS AND ADDING SLIGHT
CHC OF -RW TO FCST FOR FRI NGT-SAT TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS PERIOD...WITH COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE BASE OF A WEAK
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO ALLOW VFR CU TO BECOME A
CEILING LATER TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING...ESPECIALLY OVER
EAST AREAS SO HAVE INCLUDED FT WAYNE WITH A VFR BROKEN CEILING.
OTHERWISE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING...WINDS WILL PICK UP
SOME THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS REACHING 17 TO 20 KTS. WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 260820
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
420 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA.
SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER EAST AREA. HIGH TODAY WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S. LOWS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE BASE OF A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO
ALLOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING... ESPECIALLY OVER EAST AREAS. OTHERWISE...WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING...WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
REACHING UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND BECOME
LIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FROST OVER WEST AREAS WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO WITHIN 1 TO 2
DEGREES OF FREEZING OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INT NORTHWEST
INDIANA. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF A FROST ADVISORY FOR
NOW GIVEN MORE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND GIVEN TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN
INTO THE 20S ON 2 OF THE PAST 3 NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TROF ROTATING AROUND DEEP LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY. SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES... ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA... BUT MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE LACKING FOR ANY SHOWERS. TEMPS
SHOULD MIX OUT INTO THE M50S... EXCEPT ONLY IN THE M-U40S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SOME STRATO CU MAY PERSIST MONDAY
NIGHT... ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CYCLONIC. WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NW AND A COOL START TO THE NIGHT... EXPECT PATCHY FROST OVERNIGHT NW
WITH MINS IN THE L30S... RANGING TO AROUND 40 SE. WK UPR RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TUE PROVIDING CONTD FAIR WX WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONT TO SUGGEST UPR LOW OVER SWRN CONUS TODAY
WILL MOVE EAST TO KY/TN BY WED AND MERGE WITH SECOND SYSTEM DROPPING
S-SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA FORMING A FAIRLY DEEP TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS THU. STILL SGFNT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS TROF
BUT DECENT AGREEMENT THAT BEST MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE E-SE OF OUR
CWA SO MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS IN THIS TIMEFRAME. CAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DROPPING S-SE FROM CANADA SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPS REMAINING A BIT BLO NORMAL WED-THU.

UPR RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE GRTLKS FRIDAY AS ERN CONUS TROF
MOVES TO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FAIR WX WITH HIGHS A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE U60S. WARMUP SHOULD CONT SATURDAY AS A
SHRTWV MOVES EAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST/GRTLKS.
SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT THIS SYSTEM...
BUT APPEARS WORTHY OF LEAVING LOW SUPERBLEND POPS AND ADDING SLIGHT
CHC OF -RW TO FCST FOR FRI NGT-SAT TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS PERIOD...WITH COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE BASE OF A WEAK
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO ALLOW VFR CU TO BECOME A
CEILING LATER TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING...ESPECIALLY OVER
EAST AREAS SO HAVE INCLUDED FT WAYNE WITH A VFR BROKEN CEILING.
OTHERWISE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING...WINDS WILL PICK UP
SOME THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS REACHING 17 TO 20 KTS. WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 260637
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
237 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA.
SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER EAST AREA. HIGH TODAY WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S. LOWS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AFFECTED BY WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. STRONGEST DPVA
WILL WORK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL Q-VEC DIVERGENCE SIGNAL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THE LONGEST
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR WHERE LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
HOLDS ON. BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING DRY AIR ENTERTAINMENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE ADVANCE OF LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO QUICKLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES.

SOME CONCERN WITH LOW LEVEL FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT...THAT TEMPERATURES MAY DROP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
ONCE AGAIN. WITH AT LEAST SOME MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MIXING HOLDING ON
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CAA...HAVE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH ANY
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER
ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE EXPECTED TO ROTATE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK COLD CORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE AFTERNOON CU COVERAGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT OTHERWISE SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL NOT BE DONE WITH THE REGION YET AS 2 SPOKES
OF ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE DEPARTING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD AND THE NEXT MOVING THROUGH MAINLY MONDAY
MORNING. NOT A LOT OF MSTR TO WORK WITH AND TIMING WITH PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE OFF TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL...WARRANTING
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE DAMPENED BY A SERIES
OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND CLOSED SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT WILL
PHASE SE OF THE REGION. STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS JUNCTURE. SUPERBLEND FROM 00Z INTRODUCED SLGT CHC POPS WITH
HIGHEST EAST...NOW 12Z SHOWS SLGT CHC WITH HIGHEST WEST. WILL JUST
GO WITH A GENERAL SLGT CHC POP FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH. MAIN IMPACT FROM THE SYSTEMS WILL BE A SLOW DOWN IN ARRIVAL
OF WARMER AIR. NO REAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR WITH THESE FEATURES TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKING TO WARM UP NICELY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND
SOME 70S BY SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS
TO BRING IN WARMER AIR AND INCREASING MSTR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS PERIOD...WITH COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE BASE OF A WEAK
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO ALLOW VFR CU TO BECOME A
CEILING LATER TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING...ESPECIALLY OVER
EAST AREAS SO HAVE INCLUDED FT WAYNE WITH A VFR BROKEN CEILING.
OTHERWISE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING...WINDS WILL PICK UP
SOME THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS REACHING 17 TO 20 KTS. WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 260637
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
237 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA.
SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER EAST AREA. HIGH TODAY WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S. LOWS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AFFECTED BY WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. STRONGEST DPVA
WILL WORK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL Q-VEC DIVERGENCE SIGNAL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THE LONGEST
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR WHERE LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
HOLDS ON. BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING DRY AIR ENTERTAINMENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE ADVANCE OF LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO QUICKLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES.

SOME CONCERN WITH LOW LEVEL FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT...THAT TEMPERATURES MAY DROP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
ONCE AGAIN. WITH AT LEAST SOME MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MIXING HOLDING ON
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CAA...HAVE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH ANY
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER
ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE EXPECTED TO ROTATE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK COLD CORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE AFTERNOON CU COVERAGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT OTHERWISE SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL NOT BE DONE WITH THE REGION YET AS 2 SPOKES
OF ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE DEPARTING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD AND THE NEXT MOVING THROUGH MAINLY MONDAY
MORNING. NOT A LOT OF MSTR TO WORK WITH AND TIMING WITH PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE OFF TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL...WARRANTING
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE DAMPENED BY A SERIES
OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND CLOSED SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT WILL
PHASE SE OF THE REGION. STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS JUNCTURE. SUPERBLEND FROM 00Z INTRODUCED SLGT CHC POPS WITH
HIGHEST EAST...NOW 12Z SHOWS SLGT CHC WITH HIGHEST WEST. WILL JUST
GO WITH A GENERAL SLGT CHC POP FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH. MAIN IMPACT FROM THE SYSTEMS WILL BE A SLOW DOWN IN ARRIVAL
OF WARMER AIR. NO REAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR WITH THESE FEATURES TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKING TO WARM UP NICELY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND
SOME 70S BY SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS
TO BRING IN WARMER AIR AND INCREASING MSTR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS PERIOD...WITH COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE BASE OF A WEAK
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO ALLOW VFR CU TO BECOME A
CEILING LATER TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING...ESPECIALLY OVER
EAST AREAS SO HAVE INCLUDED FT WAYNE WITH A VFR BROKEN CEILING.
OTHERWISE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING...WINDS WILL PICK UP
SOME THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS REACHING 17 TO 20 KTS. WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 260637
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
237 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA.
SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER EAST AREA. HIGH TODAY WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S. LOWS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AFFECTED BY WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. STRONGEST DPVA
WILL WORK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL Q-VEC DIVERGENCE SIGNAL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THE LONGEST
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR WHERE LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
HOLDS ON. BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING DRY AIR ENTERTAINMENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE ADVANCE OF LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO QUICKLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES.

SOME CONCERN WITH LOW LEVEL FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT...THAT TEMPERATURES MAY DROP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
ONCE AGAIN. WITH AT LEAST SOME MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MIXING HOLDING ON
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CAA...HAVE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH ANY
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER
ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE EXPECTED TO ROTATE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK COLD CORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE AFTERNOON CU COVERAGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT OTHERWISE SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL NOT BE DONE WITH THE REGION YET AS 2 SPOKES
OF ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE DEPARTING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD AND THE NEXT MOVING THROUGH MAINLY MONDAY
MORNING. NOT A LOT OF MSTR TO WORK WITH AND TIMING WITH PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE OFF TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL...WARRANTING
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE DAMPENED BY A SERIES
OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND CLOSED SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT WILL
PHASE SE OF THE REGION. STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS JUNCTURE. SUPERBLEND FROM 00Z INTRODUCED SLGT CHC POPS WITH
HIGHEST EAST...NOW 12Z SHOWS SLGT CHC WITH HIGHEST WEST. WILL JUST
GO WITH A GENERAL SLGT CHC POP FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH. MAIN IMPACT FROM THE SYSTEMS WILL BE A SLOW DOWN IN ARRIVAL
OF WARMER AIR. NO REAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR WITH THESE FEATURES TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKING TO WARM UP NICELY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND
SOME 70S BY SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS
TO BRING IN WARMER AIR AND INCREASING MSTR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS PERIOD...WITH COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE BASE OF A WEAK
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO ALLOW VFR CU TO BECOME A
CEILING LATER TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING...ESPECIALLY OVER
EAST AREAS SO HAVE INCLUDED FT WAYNE WITH A VFR BROKEN CEILING.
OTHERWISE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING...WINDS WILL PICK UP
SOME THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS REACHING 17 TO 20 KTS. WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 252325
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
725 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 546 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN TODAY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDINESS TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO
THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO
AROUND 60 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AFFECTED BY WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. STRONGEST DPVA
WILL WORK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL Q-VEC DIVERGENCE SIGNAL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THE LONGEST
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR WHERE LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
HOLDS ON. BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING DRY AIR ENTERTAINMENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE ADVANCE OF LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO QUICKLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES.

SOME CONCERN WITH LOW LEVEL FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT...THAT TEMPERATURES MAY DROP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
ONCE AGAIN. WITH AT LEAST SOME MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MIXING HOLDING ON
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CAA...HAVE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH ANY
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER
ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE EXPECTED TO ROTATE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK COLD CORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE AFTERNOON CU COVERAGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT OTHERWISE SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL NOT BE DONE WITH THE REGION YET AS 2 SPOKES
OF ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE DEPARTING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD AND THE NEXT MOVING THROUGH MAINLY MONDAY
MORNING. NOT A LOT OF MSTR TO WORK WITH AND TIMING WITH PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE OFF TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL...WARRANTING
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE DAMPENED BY A SERIES
OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND CLOSED SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT WILL
PHASE SE OF THE REGION. STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS JUNCTURE. SUPERBLEND FROM 00Z INTRODUCED SLGT CHC POPS WITH
HIGHEST EAST...NOW 12Z SHOWS SLGT CHC WITH HIGHEST WEST. WILL JUST
GO WITH A GENERAL SLGT CHC POP FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH. MAIN IMPACT FROM THE SYSTEMS WILL BE A SLOW DOWN IN ARRIVAL
OF WARMER AIR. NO REAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR WITH THESE FEATURES TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKING TO WARM UP NICELY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND
SOME 70S BY SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS
TO BRING IN WARMER AIR AND INCREASING MSTR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL WAVE
DEPARTS THE AREA. RADAR SHOWING ONE LAST AREA OF RAIN STRETCHED
FROM NEAR KFWA TO KSBN AT ISSUANCE TIME. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH BEST CHANCES OF REMAINING SHOWERS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KFWA THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. SKIES WILL THEN SLOWLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. SHOULD SEE VFR AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY MORNING BUT EXPECT A DECENT CU FIELD TO
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING THIS TO BE
ABOVE 3 KFT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 252325
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
725 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 546 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN TODAY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDINESS TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO
THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO
AROUND 60 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AFFECTED BY WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. STRONGEST DPVA
WILL WORK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL Q-VEC DIVERGENCE SIGNAL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THE LONGEST
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR WHERE LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
HOLDS ON. BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING DRY AIR ENTERTAINMENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE ADVANCE OF LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO QUICKLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES.

SOME CONCERN WITH LOW LEVEL FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT...THAT TEMPERATURES MAY DROP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
ONCE AGAIN. WITH AT LEAST SOME MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MIXING HOLDING ON
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CAA...HAVE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH ANY
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER
ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE EXPECTED TO ROTATE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK COLD CORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE AFTERNOON CU COVERAGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT OTHERWISE SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL NOT BE DONE WITH THE REGION YET AS 2 SPOKES
OF ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE DEPARTING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD AND THE NEXT MOVING THROUGH MAINLY MONDAY
MORNING. NOT A LOT OF MSTR TO WORK WITH AND TIMING WITH PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE OFF TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL...WARRANTING
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE DAMPENED BY A SERIES
OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND CLOSED SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT WILL
PHASE SE OF THE REGION. STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS JUNCTURE. SUPERBLEND FROM 00Z INTRODUCED SLGT CHC POPS WITH
HIGHEST EAST...NOW 12Z SHOWS SLGT CHC WITH HIGHEST WEST. WILL JUST
GO WITH A GENERAL SLGT CHC POP FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH. MAIN IMPACT FROM THE SYSTEMS WILL BE A SLOW DOWN IN ARRIVAL
OF WARMER AIR. NO REAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR WITH THESE FEATURES TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKING TO WARM UP NICELY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND
SOME 70S BY SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS
TO BRING IN WARMER AIR AND INCREASING MSTR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL WAVE
DEPARTS THE AREA. RADAR SHOWING ONE LAST AREA OF RAIN STRETCHED
FROM NEAR KFWA TO KSBN AT ISSUANCE TIME. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH BEST CHANCES OF REMAINING SHOWERS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KFWA THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. SKIES WILL THEN SLOWLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. SHOULD SEE VFR AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY MORNING BUT EXPECT A DECENT CU FIELD TO
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING THIS TO BE
ABOVE 3 KFT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 252325
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
725 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 546 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN TODAY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDINESS TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO
THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO
AROUND 60 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AFFECTED BY WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. STRONGEST DPVA
WILL WORK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL Q-VEC DIVERGENCE SIGNAL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THE LONGEST
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR WHERE LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
HOLDS ON. BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING DRY AIR ENTERTAINMENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE ADVANCE OF LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO QUICKLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES.

SOME CONCERN WITH LOW LEVEL FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT...THAT TEMPERATURES MAY DROP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
ONCE AGAIN. WITH AT LEAST SOME MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MIXING HOLDING ON
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CAA...HAVE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH ANY
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER
ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE EXPECTED TO ROTATE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK COLD CORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE AFTERNOON CU COVERAGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT OTHERWISE SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL NOT BE DONE WITH THE REGION YET AS 2 SPOKES
OF ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE DEPARTING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD AND THE NEXT MOVING THROUGH MAINLY MONDAY
MORNING. NOT A LOT OF MSTR TO WORK WITH AND TIMING WITH PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE OFF TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL...WARRANTING
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE DAMPENED BY A SERIES
OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND CLOSED SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT WILL
PHASE SE OF THE REGION. STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS JUNCTURE. SUPERBLEND FROM 00Z INTRODUCED SLGT CHC POPS WITH
HIGHEST EAST...NOW 12Z SHOWS SLGT CHC WITH HIGHEST WEST. WILL JUST
GO WITH A GENERAL SLGT CHC POP FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH. MAIN IMPACT FROM THE SYSTEMS WILL BE A SLOW DOWN IN ARRIVAL
OF WARMER AIR. NO REAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR WITH THESE FEATURES TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKING TO WARM UP NICELY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND
SOME 70S BY SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS
TO BRING IN WARMER AIR AND INCREASING MSTR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL WAVE
DEPARTS THE AREA. RADAR SHOWING ONE LAST AREA OF RAIN STRETCHED
FROM NEAR KFWA TO KSBN AT ISSUANCE TIME. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH BEST CHANCES OF REMAINING SHOWERS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KFWA THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. SKIES WILL THEN SLOWLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. SHOULD SEE VFR AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY MORNING BUT EXPECT A DECENT CU FIELD TO
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING THIS TO BE
ABOVE 3 KFT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 252212
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
612 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 546 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN TODAY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDINESS TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO
THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO
AROUND 60 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AFFECTED BY WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. STRONGEST DPVA
WILL WORK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL Q-VEC DIVERGENCE SIGNAL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THE LONGEST
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR WHERE LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
HOLDS ON. BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING DRY AIR ENTERTAINMENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE ADVANCE OF LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO QUICKLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES.

SOME CONCERN WITH LOW LEVEL FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT...THAT TEMPERATURES MAY DROP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
ONCE AGAIN. WITH AT LEAST SOME MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MIXING HOLDING ON
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CAA...HAVE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH ANY
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER
ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE EXPECTED TO ROTATE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK COLD CORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE AFTERNOON CU COVERAGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT OTHERWISE SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL NOT BE DONE WITH THE REGION YET AS 2 SPOKES
OF ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE DEPARTING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD AND THE NEXT MOVING THROUGH MAINLY MONDAY
MORNING. NOT A LOT OF MSTR TO WORK WITH AND TIMING WITH PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE OFF TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL...WARRANTING
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE DAMPENED BY A SERIES
OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND CLOSED SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT WILL
PHASE SE OF THE REGION. STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS JUNCTURE. SUPERBLEND FROM 00Z INTRODUCED SLGT CHC POPS WITH
HIGHEST EAST...NOW 12Z SHOWS SLGT CHC WITH HIGHEST WEST. WILL JUST
GO WITH A GENERAL SLGT CHC POP FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH. MAIN IMPACT FROM THE SYSTEMS WILL BE A SLOW DOWN IN ARRIVAL
OF WARMER AIR. NO REAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR WITH THESE FEATURES TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKING TO WARM UP NICELY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND
SOME 70S BY SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS
TO BRING IN WARMER AIR AND INCREASING MSTR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL FRONT HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS
APPROXIMATE MAXIMUM NORTHWARD POSITION...AND SHOULD START TO SEE
FRONT SAG BACK SOUTHWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS BACK MORE NORTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED TREND TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KFWA FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KFWA THIS EVENING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD. VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 252212
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
612 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 546 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN TODAY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDINESS TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO
THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO
AROUND 60 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AFFECTED BY WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. STRONGEST DPVA
WILL WORK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL Q-VEC DIVERGENCE SIGNAL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THE LONGEST
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR WHERE LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
HOLDS ON. BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING DRY AIR ENTERTAINMENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE ADVANCE OF LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO QUICKLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES.

SOME CONCERN WITH LOW LEVEL FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT...THAT TEMPERATURES MAY DROP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
ONCE AGAIN. WITH AT LEAST SOME MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MIXING HOLDING ON
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CAA...HAVE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH ANY
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER
ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE EXPECTED TO ROTATE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK COLD CORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE AFTERNOON CU COVERAGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT OTHERWISE SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL NOT BE DONE WITH THE REGION YET AS 2 SPOKES
OF ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE DEPARTING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD AND THE NEXT MOVING THROUGH MAINLY MONDAY
MORNING. NOT A LOT OF MSTR TO WORK WITH AND TIMING WITH PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE OFF TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL...WARRANTING
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE DAMPENED BY A SERIES
OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND CLOSED SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT WILL
PHASE SE OF THE REGION. STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS JUNCTURE. SUPERBLEND FROM 00Z INTRODUCED SLGT CHC POPS WITH
HIGHEST EAST...NOW 12Z SHOWS SLGT CHC WITH HIGHEST WEST. WILL JUST
GO WITH A GENERAL SLGT CHC POP FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH. MAIN IMPACT FROM THE SYSTEMS WILL BE A SLOW DOWN IN ARRIVAL
OF WARMER AIR. NO REAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR WITH THESE FEATURES TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKING TO WARM UP NICELY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND
SOME 70S BY SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS
TO BRING IN WARMER AIR AND INCREASING MSTR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL FRONT HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS
APPROXIMATE MAXIMUM NORTHWARD POSITION...AND SHOULD START TO SEE
FRONT SAG BACK SOUTHWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS BACK MORE NORTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED TREND TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KFWA FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KFWA THIS EVENING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD. VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 252212
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
612 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 546 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN TODAY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDINESS TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO
THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO
AROUND 60 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AFFECTED BY WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. STRONGEST DPVA
WILL WORK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL Q-VEC DIVERGENCE SIGNAL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THE LONGEST
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR WHERE LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
HOLDS ON. BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING DRY AIR ENTERTAINMENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE ADVANCE OF LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO QUICKLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES.

SOME CONCERN WITH LOW LEVEL FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT...THAT TEMPERATURES MAY DROP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
ONCE AGAIN. WITH AT LEAST SOME MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MIXING HOLDING ON
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CAA...HAVE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH ANY
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER
ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE EXPECTED TO ROTATE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK COLD CORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE AFTERNOON CU COVERAGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT OTHERWISE SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL NOT BE DONE WITH THE REGION YET AS 2 SPOKES
OF ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE DEPARTING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD AND THE NEXT MOVING THROUGH MAINLY MONDAY
MORNING. NOT A LOT OF MSTR TO WORK WITH AND TIMING WITH PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE OFF TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL...WARRANTING
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE DAMPENED BY A SERIES
OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND CLOSED SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT WILL
PHASE SE OF THE REGION. STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS JUNCTURE. SUPERBLEND FROM 00Z INTRODUCED SLGT CHC POPS WITH
HIGHEST EAST...NOW 12Z SHOWS SLGT CHC WITH HIGHEST WEST. WILL JUST
GO WITH A GENERAL SLGT CHC POP FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH. MAIN IMPACT FROM THE SYSTEMS WILL BE A SLOW DOWN IN ARRIVAL
OF WARMER AIR. NO REAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR WITH THESE FEATURES TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKING TO WARM UP NICELY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND
SOME 70S BY SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS
TO BRING IN WARMER AIR AND INCREASING MSTR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL FRONT HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS
APPROXIMATE MAXIMUM NORTHWARD POSITION...AND SHOULD START TO SEE
FRONT SAG BACK SOUTHWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS BACK MORE NORTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED TREND TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KFWA FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KFWA THIS EVENING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD. VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 252212
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
612 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 546 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN TODAY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDINESS TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO
THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO
AROUND 60 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AFFECTED BY WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. STRONGEST DPVA
WILL WORK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL Q-VEC DIVERGENCE SIGNAL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THE LONGEST
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR WHERE LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
HOLDS ON. BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING DRY AIR ENTERTAINMENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE ADVANCE OF LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO QUICKLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES.

SOME CONCERN WITH LOW LEVEL FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT...THAT TEMPERATURES MAY DROP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
ONCE AGAIN. WITH AT LEAST SOME MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MIXING HOLDING ON
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CAA...HAVE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH ANY
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER
ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE EXPECTED TO ROTATE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK COLD CORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE AFTERNOON CU COVERAGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT OTHERWISE SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL NOT BE DONE WITH THE REGION YET AS 2 SPOKES
OF ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE DEPARTING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD AND THE NEXT MOVING THROUGH MAINLY MONDAY
MORNING. NOT A LOT OF MSTR TO WORK WITH AND TIMING WITH PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE OFF TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL...WARRANTING
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE DAMPENED BY A SERIES
OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND CLOSED SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT WILL
PHASE SE OF THE REGION. STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS JUNCTURE. SUPERBLEND FROM 00Z INTRODUCED SLGT CHC POPS WITH
HIGHEST EAST...NOW 12Z SHOWS SLGT CHC WITH HIGHEST WEST. WILL JUST
GO WITH A GENERAL SLGT CHC POP FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH. MAIN IMPACT FROM THE SYSTEMS WILL BE A SLOW DOWN IN ARRIVAL
OF WARMER AIR. NO REAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR WITH THESE FEATURES TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKING TO WARM UP NICELY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND
SOME 70S BY SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS
TO BRING IN WARMER AIR AND INCREASING MSTR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL FRONT HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS
APPROXIMATE MAXIMUM NORTHWARD POSITION...AND SHOULD START TO SEE
FRONT SAG BACK SOUTHWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS BACK MORE NORTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED TREND TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KFWA FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KFWA THIS EVENING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD. VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 252001
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
401 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AS A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. QUIET WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AFFECTED BY WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. STRONGEST DPVA
WILL WORK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL Q-VEC DIVERGENCE SIGNAL
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THE LONGEST
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR WHERE LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
HOLDS ON. BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING DRY AIR ENTERTAINMENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE ADVANCE OF LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR ADVECTION
TO QUICKLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO
THE PRECIP CHANCES.

SOME CONCERN WITH LOW LEVEL FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT...THAT TEMPERATURES MAY DROP NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
ONCE AGAIN. WITH AT LEAST SOME MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MIXING HOLDING ON
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CAA...HAVE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH ANY
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER
ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE EXPECTED TO ROTATE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WEAK COLD CORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE AFTERNOON CU COVERAGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT OTHERWISE SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL NOT BE DONE WITH THE REGION YET AS 2 SPOKES
OF ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE DEPARTING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD AND THE NEXT MOVING THROUGH MAINLY MONDAY
MORNING. NOT A LOT OF MSTR TO WORK WITH AND TIMING WITH PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE OFF TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL...WARRANTING
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE DAMPENED BY A SERIES
OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND CLOSED SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT WILL
PHASE SE OF THE REGION. STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS JUNCTURE. SUPERBLEND FROM 00Z INTRODUCED SLGT CHC POPS WITH
HIGHEST EAST...NOW 12Z SHOWS SLGT CHC WITH HIGHEST WEST. WILL JUST
GO WITH A GENERAL SLGT CHC POP FOR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH. MAIN IMPACT FROM THE SYSTEMS WILL BE A SLOW DOWN IN ARRIVAL
OF WARMER AIR. NO REAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR WITH THESE FEATURES TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LOOKING TO WARM UP NICELY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND
SOME 70S BY SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS
TO BRING IN WARMER AIR AND INCREASING MSTR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL FRONT HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS
APPROXIMATE MAXIMUM NORTHWARD POSITION...AND SHOULD START TO SEE
FRONT SAG BACK SOUTHWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS BACK MORE NORTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED TREND TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KFWA FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KFWA THIS EVENING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD. VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 251821
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
221 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AS RAIN ENDS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...AND LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. LOW
LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR AXIS OF BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR EXTENSIVE RAIN. SOME
THUNDER HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
INDIANA/EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF DRY SLOT.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THUNDER GIVEN MORE
LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. UPPER
FORCING SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN A
BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE BLOCKING NORTHERN STREAM BEGINS TO SUPPRESS
FORCING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THUS...STILL EXPECTING SOME
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
OVER NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO
TRANSPORT DRIER AIR BACK SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...MAYBE JUST A BIT
WARM IN SPOTS WHICH RECEIVE STEADIER RAINFALL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION ADVANCES SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. AN AREA OF RAIN HAS BEEN
TRANSLATING SOUTH AND WAS BEING SUPPORTED AND ENHANCED BY THE
COMBINATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET ALONG WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY. FOR LATER TODAY...THE
GFS...ECMWF AND NAM HAVE INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM VERY WELL AND ARE
SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE MASS FIELDS OF THIS EJECTING SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH AND AN OUTLIER AMONG THESE
MODELS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. FAVOR A MORE
INTERMEDIATE ECMWF/NEW 06Z NAM SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA....BUT
MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH. A TROWAL SHOULD TRANSLATE OVER THE
AREA WITH ABOUT A 9 HOUR DURATION AND WITH A TIGHT NORTHERN GRADIENT
IN THE RAINFALL...AS BEST DEPICTED ON THE NEW 06Z NAM. THE LATEST
COMPOSITE RADAR WAS ALREADY SHOWING THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ENTERTAINMENT AND THE LOSS
OF UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT WAS VAPORIZING THE NORTHERN RETURNS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK RAINFALL AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER FAR NORTH
AREAS...WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO
0.75 OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN
ENDING AND SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE. FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE...BUT
FOR NOW HAS LEFT FROST OUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF CLEARING TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

COUPLE OF SHRTWVS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND CLOSED LOW OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND MOVE S-SE ACROSS THE GRTLKS AND OH VALLEY
SUNDAY-MONDAY. MOISTURE LACKING FOR PRECIP WITH MAIN IMPACT JUST TO
SUSTAIN COOL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. UPR LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TUE PROVIDING CONTD FAIR WX AND WARMER
TEMPS... HWVR WK N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE WARMUP. RATHER
DEEP TROF EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER THE ERN CONUS MID/LATE WEEK AS A
CLOSED LOW MOVG EAST FROM THE SRN PLAINS PHASES WITH AN UPR LEVEL
LOW/TROF DIGGING S-SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA.  00Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONT TO HAVE SGFNT DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS
DEVELOPMENT WITH ECMWF MOVG UPR LOW ACROSS OUR AREA WED WHILE GEM
MOVES ONE LOW SOUTH THROUGH THE MS VALLEY WED WITH A SECOND LOW
DROPPING THROUGH THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY THU... AND GFS INDICATES AN
OPEN WAVE MOVG SE THROUGH THE LWR GRTLKS THU. GIVEN THE LARGE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS... FOLLOWED A HIGHLY SMOOTHED MODEL
BLEND WHICH YIELDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WED... WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK AS
THE DEEP TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL FRONT HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS
APPROXIMATE MAXIMUM NORTHWARD POSITION...AND SHOULD START TO SEE
FRONT SAG BACK SOUTHWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS BACK MORE NORTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED TREND TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KFWA FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KFWA THIS EVENING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD. VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 251821
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
221 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AS RAIN ENDS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...AND LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. LOW
LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR AXIS OF BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR EXTENSIVE RAIN. SOME
THUNDER HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
INDIANA/EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF DRY SLOT.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THUNDER GIVEN MORE
LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. UPPER
FORCING SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN A
BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE BLOCKING NORTHERN STREAM BEGINS TO SUPPRESS
FORCING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THUS...STILL EXPECTING SOME
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
OVER NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO
TRANSPORT DRIER AIR BACK SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...MAYBE JUST A BIT
WARM IN SPOTS WHICH RECEIVE STEADIER RAINFALL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION ADVANCES SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. AN AREA OF RAIN HAS BEEN
TRANSLATING SOUTH AND WAS BEING SUPPORTED AND ENHANCED BY THE
COMBINATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET ALONG WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY. FOR LATER TODAY...THE
GFS...ECMWF AND NAM HAVE INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM VERY WELL AND ARE
SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE MASS FIELDS OF THIS EJECTING SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH AND AN OUTLIER AMONG THESE
MODELS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. FAVOR A MORE
INTERMEDIATE ECMWF/NEW 06Z NAM SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA....BUT
MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH. A TROWAL SHOULD TRANSLATE OVER THE
AREA WITH ABOUT A 9 HOUR DURATION AND WITH A TIGHT NORTHERN GRADIENT
IN THE RAINFALL...AS BEST DEPICTED ON THE NEW 06Z NAM. THE LATEST
COMPOSITE RADAR WAS ALREADY SHOWING THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ENTERTAINMENT AND THE LOSS
OF UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT WAS VAPORIZING THE NORTHERN RETURNS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK RAINFALL AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER FAR NORTH
AREAS...WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO
0.75 OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN
ENDING AND SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE. FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE...BUT
FOR NOW HAS LEFT FROST OUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF CLEARING TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

COUPLE OF SHRTWVS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND CLOSED LOW OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND MOVE S-SE ACROSS THE GRTLKS AND OH VALLEY
SUNDAY-MONDAY. MOISTURE LACKING FOR PRECIP WITH MAIN IMPACT JUST TO
SUSTAIN COOL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. UPR LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TUE PROVIDING CONTD FAIR WX AND WARMER
TEMPS... HWVR WK N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE WARMUP. RATHER
DEEP TROF EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER THE ERN CONUS MID/LATE WEEK AS A
CLOSED LOW MOVG EAST FROM THE SRN PLAINS PHASES WITH AN UPR LEVEL
LOW/TROF DIGGING S-SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA.  00Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONT TO HAVE SGFNT DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS
DEVELOPMENT WITH ECMWF MOVG UPR LOW ACROSS OUR AREA WED WHILE GEM
MOVES ONE LOW SOUTH THROUGH THE MS VALLEY WED WITH A SECOND LOW
DROPPING THROUGH THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY THU... AND GFS INDICATES AN
OPEN WAVE MOVG SE THROUGH THE LWR GRTLKS THU. GIVEN THE LARGE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS... FOLLOWED A HIGHLY SMOOTHED MODEL
BLEND WHICH YIELDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WED... WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK AS
THE DEEP TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL FRONT HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS
APPROXIMATE MAXIMUM NORTHWARD POSITION...AND SHOULD START TO SEE
FRONT SAG BACK SOUTHWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS BACK MORE NORTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED TREND TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KFWA FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KFWA THIS EVENING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD. VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 251821
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
221 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AS RAIN ENDS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...AND LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. LOW
LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR AXIS OF BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR EXTENSIVE RAIN. SOME
THUNDER HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
INDIANA/EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF DRY SLOT.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THUNDER GIVEN MORE
LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. UPPER
FORCING SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN A
BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE BLOCKING NORTHERN STREAM BEGINS TO SUPPRESS
FORCING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THUS...STILL EXPECTING SOME
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
OVER NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO
TRANSPORT DRIER AIR BACK SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...MAYBE JUST A BIT
WARM IN SPOTS WHICH RECEIVE STEADIER RAINFALL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION ADVANCES SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. AN AREA OF RAIN HAS BEEN
TRANSLATING SOUTH AND WAS BEING SUPPORTED AND ENHANCED BY THE
COMBINATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET ALONG WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY. FOR LATER TODAY...THE
GFS...ECMWF AND NAM HAVE INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM VERY WELL AND ARE
SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE MASS FIELDS OF THIS EJECTING SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH AND AN OUTLIER AMONG THESE
MODELS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. FAVOR A MORE
INTERMEDIATE ECMWF/NEW 06Z NAM SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA....BUT
MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH. A TROWAL SHOULD TRANSLATE OVER THE
AREA WITH ABOUT A 9 HOUR DURATION AND WITH A TIGHT NORTHERN GRADIENT
IN THE RAINFALL...AS BEST DEPICTED ON THE NEW 06Z NAM. THE LATEST
COMPOSITE RADAR WAS ALREADY SHOWING THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ENTERTAINMENT AND THE LOSS
OF UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT WAS VAPORIZING THE NORTHERN RETURNS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK RAINFALL AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER FAR NORTH
AREAS...WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO
0.75 OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN
ENDING AND SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE. FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE...BUT
FOR NOW HAS LEFT FROST OUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF CLEARING TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

COUPLE OF SHRTWVS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND CLOSED LOW OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND MOVE S-SE ACROSS THE GRTLKS AND OH VALLEY
SUNDAY-MONDAY. MOISTURE LACKING FOR PRECIP WITH MAIN IMPACT JUST TO
SUSTAIN COOL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. UPR LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TUE PROVIDING CONTD FAIR WX AND WARMER
TEMPS... HWVR WK N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE WARMUP. RATHER
DEEP TROF EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER THE ERN CONUS MID/LATE WEEK AS A
CLOSED LOW MOVG EAST FROM THE SRN PLAINS PHASES WITH AN UPR LEVEL
LOW/TROF DIGGING S-SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA.  00Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONT TO HAVE SGFNT DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS
DEVELOPMENT WITH ECMWF MOVG UPR LOW ACROSS OUR AREA WED WHILE GEM
MOVES ONE LOW SOUTH THROUGH THE MS VALLEY WED WITH A SECOND LOW
DROPPING THROUGH THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY THU... AND GFS INDICATES AN
OPEN WAVE MOVG SE THROUGH THE LWR GRTLKS THU. GIVEN THE LARGE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS... FOLLOWED A HIGHLY SMOOTHED MODEL
BLEND WHICH YIELDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WED... WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK AS
THE DEEP TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL FRONT HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS
APPROXIMATE MAXIMUM NORTHWARD POSITION...AND SHOULD START TO SEE
FRONT SAG BACK SOUTHWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS BACK MORE NORTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED TREND TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KFWA FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KFWA THIS EVENING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD. VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 251617
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1217 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AS RAIN ENDS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...AND LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. LOW
LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR AXIS OF BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR EXTENSIVE RAIN. SOME
THUNDER HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
INDIANA/EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF DRY SLOT.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THUNDER GIVEN MORE
LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. UPPER
FORCING SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN A
BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE BLOCKING NORTHERN STREAM BEGINS TO SUPPRESS
FORCING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THUS...STILL EXPECTING SOME
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
OVER NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO
TRANSPORT DRIER AIR BACK SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...MAYBE JUST A BIT
WARM IN SPOTS WHICH RECEIVE STEADIER RAINFALL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION ADVANCES SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. AN AREA OF RAIN HAS BEEN
TRANSLATING SOUTH AND WAS BEING SUPPORTED AND ENHANCED BY THE
COMBINATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET ALONG WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY. FOR LATER TODAY...THE
GFS...ECMWF AND NAM HAVE INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM VERY WELL AND ARE
SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE MASS FIELDS OF THIS EJECTING SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH AND AN OUTLIER AMONG THESE
MODELS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. FAVOR A MORE
INTERMEDIATE ECMWF/NEW 06Z NAM SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA....BUT
MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH. A TROWAL SHOULD TRANSLATE OVER THE
AREA WITH ABOUT A 9 HOUR DURATION AND WITH A TIGHT NORTHERN GRADIENT
IN THE RAINFALL...AS BEST DEPICTED ON THE NEW 06Z NAM. THE LATEST
COMPOSITE RADAR WAS ALREADY SHOWING THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND THE LOSS
OF UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT WAS VAPORIZING THE NORTHERN RETURNS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK RAINFALL AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER FAR NORTH
AREAS...WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO
0.75 OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN
ENDING AND SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE. FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE...BUT
FOR NOW HAS LEFT FROST OUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF CLEARING TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

COUPLE OF SHRTWVS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND CLOSED LOW OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND MOVE S-SE ACROSS THE GRTLKS AND OH VALLEY
SUNDAY-MONDAY. MOISTURE LACKING FOR PRECIP WITH MAIN IMPACT JUST TO
SUSTAIN COOL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. UPR LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TUE PROVIDING CONTD FAIR WX AND WARMER
TEMPS... HWVR WK N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE WARMUP. RATHER
DEEP TROF EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER THE ERN CONUS MID/LATE WEEK AS A
CLOSED LOW MOVG EAST FROM THE SRN PLAINS PHASES WITH AN UPR LEVEL
LOW/TROF DIGGING S-SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA.  00Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONT TO HAVE SGFNT DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS
DEVELOPMENT WITH ECMWF MOVG UPR LOW ACROSS OUR AREA WED WHILE GEM
MOVES ONE LOW SOUTH THROUGH THE MS VALLEY WED WITH A SECOND LOW
DROPPING THROUGH THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY THU... AND GFS INDICATES AN
OPEN WAVE MOVG SE THROUGH THE LWR GRTLKS THU. GIVEN THE LARGE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS... FOLLOWED A HIGHLY SMOOTHED MODEL
BLEND WHICH YIELDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WED... WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK AS
THE DEEP TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BAND OF RAIN MOVG EAST ACROSS NWRN EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINALS
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING MUCH OF THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NE KS MOVES ESE INTO THE LWR OH
VALLEY. AS LOW PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING... WINDS WILL
BACK FROM EAST TO NE ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO NRN
INDIANA BRINGING THE RAIN TO AN END AND IMPROVING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR AFTER LOWERING TO MVFR DURING THE RAIN
TODAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTS OF
20-25KT TODAY... WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS GRADIENT
WEAKENS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 251617
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1217 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AS RAIN ENDS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...AND LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. LOW
LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR AXIS OF BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR EXTENSIVE RAIN. SOME
THUNDER HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
INDIANA/EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF DRY SLOT.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THUNDER GIVEN MORE
LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. UPPER
FORCING SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN A
BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE BLOCKING NORTHERN STREAM BEGINS TO SUPPRESS
FORCING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THUS...STILL EXPECTING SOME
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
OVER NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO
TRANSPORT DRIER AIR BACK SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...MAYBE JUST A BIT
WARM IN SPOTS WHICH RECEIVE STEADIER RAINFALL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION ADVANCES SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. AN AREA OF RAIN HAS BEEN
TRANSLATING SOUTH AND WAS BEING SUPPORTED AND ENHANCED BY THE
COMBINATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET ALONG WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY. FOR LATER TODAY...THE
GFS...ECMWF AND NAM HAVE INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM VERY WELL AND ARE
SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE MASS FIELDS OF THIS EJECTING SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH AND AN OUTLIER AMONG THESE
MODELS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. FAVOR A MORE
INTERMEDIATE ECMWF/NEW 06Z NAM SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA....BUT
MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH. A TROWAL SHOULD TRANSLATE OVER THE
AREA WITH ABOUT A 9 HOUR DURATION AND WITH A TIGHT NORTHERN GRADIENT
IN THE RAINFALL...AS BEST DEPICTED ON THE NEW 06Z NAM. THE LATEST
COMPOSITE RADAR WAS ALREADY SHOWING THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND THE LOSS
OF UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT WAS VAPORIZING THE NORTHERN RETURNS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK RAINFALL AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER FAR NORTH
AREAS...WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO
0.75 OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN
ENDING AND SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE. FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE...BUT
FOR NOW HAS LEFT FROST OUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF CLEARING TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

COUPLE OF SHRTWVS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND CLOSED LOW OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND MOVE S-SE ACROSS THE GRTLKS AND OH VALLEY
SUNDAY-MONDAY. MOISTURE LACKING FOR PRECIP WITH MAIN IMPACT JUST TO
SUSTAIN COOL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. UPR LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TUE PROVIDING CONTD FAIR WX AND WARMER
TEMPS... HWVR WK N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE WARMUP. RATHER
DEEP TROF EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER THE ERN CONUS MID/LATE WEEK AS A
CLOSED LOW MOVG EAST FROM THE SRN PLAINS PHASES WITH AN UPR LEVEL
LOW/TROF DIGGING S-SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA.  00Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONT TO HAVE SGFNT DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS
DEVELOPMENT WITH ECMWF MOVG UPR LOW ACROSS OUR AREA WED WHILE GEM
MOVES ONE LOW SOUTH THROUGH THE MS VALLEY WED WITH A SECOND LOW
DROPPING THROUGH THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY THU... AND GFS INDICATES AN
OPEN WAVE MOVG SE THROUGH THE LWR GRTLKS THU. GIVEN THE LARGE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS... FOLLOWED A HIGHLY SMOOTHED MODEL
BLEND WHICH YIELDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WED... WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK AS
THE DEEP TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BAND OF RAIN MOVG EAST ACROSS NWRN EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINALS
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING MUCH OF THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NE KS MOVES ESE INTO THE LWR OH
VALLEY. AS LOW PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING... WINDS WILL
BACK FROM EAST TO NE ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO NRN
INDIANA BRINGING THE RAIN TO AN END AND IMPROVING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR AFTER LOWERING TO MVFR DURING THE RAIN
TODAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTS OF
20-25KT TODAY... WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS GRADIENT
WEAKENS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 251617
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1217 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AS RAIN ENDS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...AND LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. LOW
LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR AXIS OF BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR EXTENSIVE RAIN. SOME
THUNDER HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
INDIANA/EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF DRY SLOT.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THUNDER GIVEN MORE
LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. UPPER
FORCING SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN A
BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE BLOCKING NORTHERN STREAM BEGINS TO SUPPRESS
FORCING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THUS...STILL EXPECTING SOME
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
OVER NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO
TRANSPORT DRIER AIR BACK SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...MAYBE JUST A BIT
WARM IN SPOTS WHICH RECEIVE STEADIER RAINFALL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION ADVANCES SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. AN AREA OF RAIN HAS BEEN
TRANSLATING SOUTH AND WAS BEING SUPPORTED AND ENHANCED BY THE
COMBINATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET ALONG WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY. FOR LATER TODAY...THE
GFS...ECMWF AND NAM HAVE INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM VERY WELL AND ARE
SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE MASS FIELDS OF THIS EJECTING SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH AND AN OUTLIER AMONG THESE
MODELS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. FAVOR A MORE
INTERMEDIATE ECMWF/NEW 06Z NAM SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA....BUT
MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH. A TROWAL SHOULD TRANSLATE OVER THE
AREA WITH ABOUT A 9 HOUR DURATION AND WITH A TIGHT NORTHERN GRADIENT
IN THE RAINFALL...AS BEST DEPICTED ON THE NEW 06Z NAM. THE LATEST
COMPOSITE RADAR WAS ALREADY SHOWING THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND THE LOSS
OF UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT WAS VAPORIZING THE NORTHERN RETURNS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK RAINFALL AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER FAR NORTH
AREAS...WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO
0.75 OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN
ENDING AND SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE. FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE...BUT
FOR NOW HAS LEFT FROST OUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF CLEARING TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

COUPLE OF SHRTWVS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND CLOSED LOW OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND MOVE S-SE ACROSS THE GRTLKS AND OH VALLEY
SUNDAY-MONDAY. MOISTURE LACKING FOR PRECIP WITH MAIN IMPACT JUST TO
SUSTAIN COOL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. UPR LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TUE PROVIDING CONTD FAIR WX AND WARMER
TEMPS... HWVR WK N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE WARMUP. RATHER
DEEP TROF EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER THE ERN CONUS MID/LATE WEEK AS A
CLOSED LOW MOVG EAST FROM THE SRN PLAINS PHASES WITH AN UPR LEVEL
LOW/TROF DIGGING S-SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA.  00Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONT TO HAVE SGFNT DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS
DEVELOPMENT WITH ECMWF MOVG UPR LOW ACROSS OUR AREA WED WHILE GEM
MOVES ONE LOW SOUTH THROUGH THE MS VALLEY WED WITH A SECOND LOW
DROPPING THROUGH THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY THU... AND GFS INDICATES AN
OPEN WAVE MOVG SE THROUGH THE LWR GRTLKS THU. GIVEN THE LARGE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS... FOLLOWED A HIGHLY SMOOTHED MODEL
BLEND WHICH YIELDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WED... WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK AS
THE DEEP TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BAND OF RAIN MOVG EAST ACROSS NWRN EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINALS
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING MUCH OF THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NE KS MOVES ESE INTO THE LWR OH
VALLEY. AS LOW PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING... WINDS WILL
BACK FROM EAST TO NE ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO NRN
INDIANA BRINGING THE RAIN TO AN END AND IMPROVING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR AFTER LOWERING TO MVFR DURING THE RAIN
TODAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTS OF
20-25KT TODAY... WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS GRADIENT
WEAKENS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 251044
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
644 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TONIGHT AS RAIN ENDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 46 TO 50. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. AN AREA OF RAIN HAS BEEN
TRANSLATING SOUTH AND WAS BEING SUPPORTED AND ENHANCED BY THE
COMBINATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET ALONG WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY. FOR LATER TODAY...THE
GFS...ECMWF AND NAM HAVE INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM VERY WELL AND ARE
SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE MASS FIELDS OF THIS EJECTING SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH AND AN OUTLIER AMONG THESE
MODELS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. FAVOR A MORE
INTERMEDIATE ECMWF/NEW 06Z NAM SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA....BUT
MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH. A TROWAL SHOULD TRANSLATE OVER THE
AREA WITH ABOUT A 9 HOUR DURATION AND WITH A TIGHT NORTHERN GRADIENT
IN THE RAINFALL...AS BEST DEPICTED ON THE NEW 06Z NAM. THE LATEST
COMPOSITE RADAR WAS ALREADY SHOWING THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND THE LOSS
OF UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT WAS VAPORIZING THE NORTHERN RETURNS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK RAINFALL AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER FAR NORTH
AREAS...WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO
0.75 OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN
ENDING AND SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE. FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE...BUT
FOR NOW HAS LEFT FROST OUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF CLEARING TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

COUPLE OF SHRTWVS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND CLOSED LOW OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND MOVE S-SE ACROSS THE GRTLKS AND OH VALLEY
SUNDAY-MONDAY. MOISTURE LACKING FOR PRECIP WITH MAIN IMPACT JUST TO
SUSTAIN COOL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. UPR LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TUE PROVIDING CONTD FAIR WX AND WARMER
TEMPS... HWVR WK N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE WARMUP. RATHER
DEEP TROF EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER THE ERN CONUS MID/LATE WEEK AS A
CLOSED LOW MOVG EAST FROM THE SRN PLAINS PHASES WITH AN UPR LEVEL
LOW/TROF DIGGING S-SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA.  00Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONT TO HAVE SGFNT DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS
DEVELOPMENT WITH ECMWF MOVG UPR LOW ACROSS OUR AREA WED WHILE GEM
MOVES ONE LOW SOUTH THROUGH THE MS VALLEY WED WITH A SECOND LOW
DROPPING THROUGH THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY THU... AND GFS INDICATES AN
OPEN WAVE MOVG SE THROUGH THE LWR GRTLKS THU. GIVEN THE LARGE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS... FOLLOWED A HIGHLY SMOOTHED MODEL
BLEND WHICH YIELDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WED... WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK AS
THE DEEP TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BAND OF RAIN MOVG EAST ACROSS NWRN EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINALS
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING MUCH OF THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NE KS MOVES ESE INTO THE LWR OH
VALLEY. AS LOW PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING... WINDS WILL
BACK FROM EAST TO NE ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO NRN
INDIANA BRINGING THE RAIN TO AN END AND IMPROVING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR AFTER LOWERING TO MVFR DURING THE RAIN
TODAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTS OF
20-25KT TODAY... WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS GRADIENT
WEAKENS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 251044
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
644 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TONIGHT AS RAIN ENDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 46 TO 50. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. AN AREA OF RAIN HAS BEEN
TRANSLATING SOUTH AND WAS BEING SUPPORTED AND ENHANCED BY THE
COMBINATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET ALONG WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY. FOR LATER TODAY...THE
GFS...ECMWF AND NAM HAVE INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM VERY WELL AND ARE
SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE MASS FIELDS OF THIS EJECTING SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH AND AN OUTLIER AMONG THESE
MODELS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. FAVOR A MORE
INTERMEDIATE ECMWF/NEW 06Z NAM SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA....BUT
MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH. A TROWAL SHOULD TRANSLATE OVER THE
AREA WITH ABOUT A 9 HOUR DURATION AND WITH A TIGHT NORTHERN GRADIENT
IN THE RAINFALL...AS BEST DEPICTED ON THE NEW 06Z NAM. THE LATEST
COMPOSITE RADAR WAS ALREADY SHOWING THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND THE LOSS
OF UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT WAS VAPORIZING THE NORTHERN RETURNS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK RAINFALL AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER FAR NORTH
AREAS...WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO
0.75 OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN
ENDING AND SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE. FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE...BUT
FOR NOW HAS LEFT FROST OUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF CLEARING TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

COUPLE OF SHRTWVS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND CLOSED LOW OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND MOVE S-SE ACROSS THE GRTLKS AND OH VALLEY
SUNDAY-MONDAY. MOISTURE LACKING FOR PRECIP WITH MAIN IMPACT JUST TO
SUSTAIN COOL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. UPR LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TUE PROVIDING CONTD FAIR WX AND WARMER
TEMPS... HWVR WK N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE WARMUP. RATHER
DEEP TROF EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER THE ERN CONUS MID/LATE WEEK AS A
CLOSED LOW MOVG EAST FROM THE SRN PLAINS PHASES WITH AN UPR LEVEL
LOW/TROF DIGGING S-SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA.  00Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONT TO HAVE SGFNT DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS
DEVELOPMENT WITH ECMWF MOVG UPR LOW ACROSS OUR AREA WED WHILE GEM
MOVES ONE LOW SOUTH THROUGH THE MS VALLEY WED WITH A SECOND LOW
DROPPING THROUGH THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY THU... AND GFS INDICATES AN
OPEN WAVE MOVG SE THROUGH THE LWR GRTLKS THU. GIVEN THE LARGE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS... FOLLOWED A HIGHLY SMOOTHED MODEL
BLEND WHICH YIELDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WED... WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK AS
THE DEEP TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BAND OF RAIN MOVG EAST ACROSS NWRN EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINALS
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH RAIN LIKELY LINGERING MUCH OF THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NE KS MOVES ESE INTO THE LWR OH
VALLEY. AS LOW PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING... WINDS WILL
BACK FROM EAST TO NE ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO NRN
INDIANA BRINGING THE RAIN TO AN END AND IMPROVING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR AFTER LOWERING TO MVFR DURING THE RAIN
TODAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTS OF
20-25KT TODAY... WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS GRADIENT
WEAKENS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 250907
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
507 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TONIGHT AS RAIN ENDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 46 TO 50. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. AN AREA OF RAIN HAS BEEN
TRANSLATING SOUTH AND WAS BEING SUPPORTED AND ENHANCED BY THE
COMBINATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET ALONG WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY. FOR LATER TODAY...THE
GFS...ECMWF AND NAM HAVE INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM VERY WELL AND ARE
SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE MASS FIELDS OF THIS EJECTING SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH AND AN OUTLIER AMONG THESE
MODELS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. FAVOR A MORE
INTERMEDIATE ECMWF/NEW 06Z NAM SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA....BUT
MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH. A TROWAL SHOULD TRANSLATE OVER THE
AREA WITH ABOUT A 9 HOUR DURATION AND WITH A TIGHT NORTHERN GRADIENT
IN THE RAINFALL...AS BEST DEPICTED ON THE NEW 06Z NAM. THE LATEST
COMPOSITE RADAR WAS ALREADY SHOWING THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND THE LOSS
OF UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT WAS VAPORIZING THE NORTHERN RETURNS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK RAINFALL AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER FAR NORTH
AREAS...WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO
0.75 OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN
ENDING AND SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE. FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE...BUT
FOR NOW HAS LEFT FROST OUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF CLEARING TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

COUPLE OF SHRTWVS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND CLOSED LOW OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND MOVE S-SE ACROSS THE GRTLKS AND OH VALLEY
SUNDAY-MONDAY. MOISTURE LACKING FOR PRECIP WITH MAIN IMPACT JUST TO
SUSTAIN COOL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. UPR LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TUE PROVIDING CONTD FAIR WX AND WARMER
TEMPS... HWVR WK N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE WARMUP. RATHER
DEEP TROF EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER THE ERN CONUS MID/LATE WEEK AS A
CLOSED LOW MOVG EAST FROM THE SRN PLAINS PHASES WITH AN UPR LEVEL
LOW/TROF DIGGING S-SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA.  00Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONT TO HAVE SGFNT DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS
DEVELOPMENT WITH ECMWF MOVG UPR LOW ACROSS OUR AREA WED WHILE GEM
MOVES ONE LOW SOUTH THROUGH THE MS VALLEY WED WITH A SECOND LOW
DROPPING THROUGH THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY THU... AND GFS INDICATES AN
OPEN WAVE MOVG SE THROUGH THE LWR GRTLKS THU. GIVEN THE LARGE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS... FOLLOWED A HIGHLY SMOOTHED MODEL
BLEND WHICH YIELDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WED... WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK AS
THE DEEP TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN AREA OF RAIN HAS BEEN TRANSLATING SOUTH AND WAS BEING SUPPORTED
AND ENHANCED BY THE COMBINATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN
UPPER JET ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE RAIN AT FT WAYNE GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE OBS. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD LATER TODAY...
WITH MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODELS VERY INHIBITED/SUPPRESS WHEREAS
THE SPECTRAL MODELS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WET. FOR NOW...
LEFT CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD...AND THEN
BECOMING VFR AGAIN AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 250907
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
507 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TONIGHT AS RAIN ENDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 46 TO 50. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. AN AREA OF RAIN HAS BEEN
TRANSLATING SOUTH AND WAS BEING SUPPORTED AND ENHANCED BY THE
COMBINATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET ALONG WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY. FOR LATER TODAY...THE
GFS...ECMWF AND NAM HAVE INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM VERY WELL AND ARE
SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE MASS FIELDS OF THIS EJECTING SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...THE GFS WAS FARTHER NORTH AND AN OUTLIER AMONG THESE
MODELS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. FAVOR A MORE
INTERMEDIATE ECMWF/NEW 06Z NAM SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA....BUT
MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH. A TROWAL SHOULD TRANSLATE OVER THE
AREA WITH ABOUT A 9 HOUR DURATION AND WITH A TIGHT NORTHERN GRADIENT
IN THE RAINFALL...AS BEST DEPICTED ON THE NEW 06Z NAM. THE LATEST
COMPOSITE RADAR WAS ALREADY SHOWING THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND THE LOSS
OF UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT WAS VAPORIZING THE NORTHERN RETURNS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK RAINFALL AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER FAR NORTH
AREAS...WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO
0.75 OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH RAIN
ENDING AND SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE. FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE...BUT
FOR NOW HAS LEFT FROST OUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF CLEARING TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

COUPLE OF SHRTWVS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND CLOSED LOW OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND MOVE S-SE ACROSS THE GRTLKS AND OH VALLEY
SUNDAY-MONDAY. MOISTURE LACKING FOR PRECIP WITH MAIN IMPACT JUST TO
SUSTAIN COOL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. UPR LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA TUE PROVIDING CONTD FAIR WX AND WARMER
TEMPS... HWVR WK N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE WARMUP. RATHER
DEEP TROF EXPECTED TO DVLP OVER THE ERN CONUS MID/LATE WEEK AS A
CLOSED LOW MOVG EAST FROM THE SRN PLAINS PHASES WITH AN UPR LEVEL
LOW/TROF DIGGING S-SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA.  00Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONT TO HAVE SGFNT DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS
DEVELOPMENT WITH ECMWF MOVG UPR LOW ACROSS OUR AREA WED WHILE GEM
MOVES ONE LOW SOUTH THROUGH THE MS VALLEY WED WITH A SECOND LOW
DROPPING THROUGH THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY THU... AND GFS INDICATES AN
OPEN WAVE MOVG SE THROUGH THE LWR GRTLKS THU. GIVEN THE LARGE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS... FOLLOWED A HIGHLY SMOOTHED MODEL
BLEND WHICH YIELDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WED... WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LATE WEEK AS
THE DEEP TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
EAST FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN AREA OF RAIN HAS BEEN TRANSLATING SOUTH AND WAS BEING SUPPORTED
AND ENHANCED BY THE COMBINATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN
UPPER JET ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE RAIN AT FT WAYNE GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE OBS. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD LATER TODAY...
WITH MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODELS VERY INHIBITED/SUPPRESS WHEREAS
THE SPECTRAL MODELS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WET. FOR NOW...
LEFT CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD...AND THEN
BECOMING VFR AGAIN AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 250633
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
233 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TONIGHT AS RAIN ENDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE
UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...WITH NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA.

A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DUE
TO A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
PAST 36 HOURS. SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CURRENTLY ARE RUNNING
ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO 45 DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MID
LEVEL WINDS BACK AND MID LEVEL WAA BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. A
SMALL SCALE...BUT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING/LOW LEVEL FGEN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA THIS EVENING.
GIVEN VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MEASURABLE PRECIP
AND ANY CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO NARROW MOISTURE
POOLING/FGEN AXIS ACROSS THE NORTH. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH THIS EVENING.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETAE SURGE STILL APPEARS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL
WELL AFTER 12Z FOLLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. GUIDANCE STILL
DEPICTS 1 INCH PWATS WORKING ACROSS APPROXIMATELY SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH STILL SOME LESSER
CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS MORE
ROBUST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY. WILL MAINTAIN A GRADIENT TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST...WITH EXPECTATION OF AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND FAVORABLE
PROXIMITY TO LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK. PIVOTING LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COULD LEND TO SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF ONE HALF INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA.
OTHERWISE...SATURDAY STILL IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RAW DAY WITH BRISK
EASTERLY WINDS AND INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP KEEPING TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S...OR PERHAPS LOWER 50S IF A SLOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST
EVOLUTION MATERIALIZES IN REGARDS TO SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPRESS THIS UPPER WAVE SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH ONSET OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND AN END TO
PRECIP CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WILL BE MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT STILL AT
LEAST ONE FEATURE OF INTEREST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

RIDGING WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH NO
CHANCE OF RAIN AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL IN THE
MID 60S. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP SE OUT OF CANADA IN THE
TUES/TUES NGT TIME FRAME. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...BUT CONCERNED THAT TOO MUCH DRY AIR WILL RESIDE OVER THE
REGION AND LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT WILL BE EVENTUAL PHASING
WITH A CLOSED SW UPPER LEVEL LOW...RESULTING IN DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION BACK INTO RIDGING ALOFT AND
TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY TRENDING WARMER IF EVERYTHING
COMES TOGETHER CORRECTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN AREA OF RAIN HAS BEEN TRANSLATING SOUTH AND WAS BEING SUPPORTED
AND ENHANCED BY THE COMBINATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN
UPPER JET ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE RAIN AT FT WAYNE GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE OBS. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD LATER TODAY...
WITH MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODELS VERY INHIBITED/SUPPRESS WHEREAS
THE SPECTRAL MODELS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WET. FOR NOW...
LEFT CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD...AND THEN
BECOMING VFR AGAIN AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 250633
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
233 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TONIGHT AS RAIN ENDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE
UPPER 50S IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...WITH NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA.

A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DUE
TO A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
PAST 36 HOURS. SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CURRENTLY ARE RUNNING
ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO 45 DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MID
LEVEL WINDS BACK AND MID LEVEL WAA BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. A
SMALL SCALE...BUT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING/LOW LEVEL FGEN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA THIS EVENING.
GIVEN VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MEASURABLE PRECIP
AND ANY CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO NARROW MOISTURE
POOLING/FGEN AXIS ACROSS THE NORTH. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH THIS EVENING.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETAE SURGE STILL APPEARS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL
WELL AFTER 12Z FOLLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. GUIDANCE STILL
DEPICTS 1 INCH PWATS WORKING ACROSS APPROXIMATELY SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH STILL SOME LESSER
CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS MORE
ROBUST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY. WILL MAINTAIN A GRADIENT TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST...WITH EXPECTATION OF AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND FAVORABLE
PROXIMITY TO LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK. PIVOTING LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COULD LEND TO SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF ONE HALF INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA.
OTHERWISE...SATURDAY STILL IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RAW DAY WITH BRISK
EASTERLY WINDS AND INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP KEEPING TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S...OR PERHAPS LOWER 50S IF A SLOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST
EVOLUTION MATERIALIZES IN REGARDS TO SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPRESS THIS UPPER WAVE SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH ONSET OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND AN END TO
PRECIP CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WILL BE MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT STILL AT
LEAST ONE FEATURE OF INTEREST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

RIDGING WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH NO
CHANCE OF RAIN AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL IN THE
MID 60S. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP SE OUT OF CANADA IN THE
TUES/TUES NGT TIME FRAME. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...BUT CONCERNED THAT TOO MUCH DRY AIR WILL RESIDE OVER THE
REGION AND LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT WILL BE EVENTUAL PHASING
WITH A CLOSED SW UPPER LEVEL LOW...RESULTING IN DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION BACK INTO RIDGING ALOFT AND
TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY TRENDING WARMER IF EVERYTHING
COMES TOGETHER CORRECTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN AREA OF RAIN HAS BEEN TRANSLATING SOUTH AND WAS BEING SUPPORTED
AND ENHANCED BY THE COMBINATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN
UPPER JET ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE RAIN AT FT WAYNE GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE OBS. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD LATER TODAY...
WITH MOST OF THE HIGH RES MODELS VERY INHIBITED/SUPPRESS WHEREAS
THE SPECTRAL MODELS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WET. FOR NOW...
LEFT CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD...AND THEN
BECOMING VFR AGAIN AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 242336
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
736 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 542 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION TONIGHT
INTRODUCING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW INCREASING THE REGIONS RAIN CHANCES. THEN
THIS LOW WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE
UPPER 40S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 50S IN
SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...WITH NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA.

A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DUE
TO A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
PAST 36 HOURS. SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CURRENTLY ARE RUNNING
ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO 45 DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MID
LEVEL WINDS BACK AND MID LEVEL WAA BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. A
SMALL SCALE...BUT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING/LOW LEVEL FGEN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA THIS EVENING.
GIVEN VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MEASURABLE PRECIP
AND ANY CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO NARROW MOISTURE
POOLING/FGEN AXIS ACROSS THE NORTH. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH THIS EVENING.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETAE SURGE STILL APPEARS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL
WELL AFTER 12Z FOLLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. GUIDANCE STILL
DEPICTS 1 INCH PWATS WORKING ACROSS APPROXIMATELY SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH STILL SOME LESSER
CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS MORE
ROBUST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY. WILL MAINTAIN A GRADIENT TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST...WITH EXPECTATION OF AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND FAVORABLE
PROXIMITY TO LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK. PIVOTING LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COULD LEND TO SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF ONE HALF INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA.
OTHERWISE...SATURDAY STILL IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RAW DAY WITH BRISK
EASTERLY WINDS AND INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP KEEPING TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S...OR PERHAPS LOWER 50S IF A SLOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST
EVOLUTION MATERIALIZES IN REGARDS TO SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPRESS THIS UPPER WAVE SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH ONSET OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND AN END TO
PRECIP CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WILL BE MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT STILL AT
LEAST ONE FEATURE OF INTEREST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

RIDGING WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH NO
CHANCE OF RAIN AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL IN THE
MID 60S. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP SE OUT OF CANADA IN THE
TUES/TUES NGT TIME FRAME. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...BUT CONCERNED THAT TOO MUCH DRY AIR WILL RESIDE OVER THE
REGION AND LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT WILL BE EVENTUAL PHASING
WITH A CLOSED SW UPPER LEVEL LOW...RESULTING IN DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION BACK INTO RIDGING ALOFT AND
TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY TRENDING WARMER IF EVERYTHING
COMES TOGETHER CORRECTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TERMINAL SITES. VFR TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY LOWERING.
QUESTION REMAINS TIMING ONSET OF PCPN AND HOW INFLUENTIAL/DETRIMENTAL LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE TO PCPN. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...HRRR AND RUC...ARE SHOWING ONLY LIGHT QPF FROM 12-15Z
OVER THE AREA WITH HEAVIER PCPN REMAINING SOUTH. OTHER GUIDANCE
SUCH AS NAM12...LOCAL WRF AND HIRES ARW MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PCPN
ADVANCEMENT NORTHWARD MID TO LATE MORNING. HAVE STAYED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING WITH LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING MID MORNING. INTRODUCED MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES ALONG WITH
TOP/DOWN SATURATION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 242336
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
736 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 542 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION TONIGHT
INTRODUCING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW INCREASING THE REGIONS RAIN CHANCES. THEN
THIS LOW WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE
UPPER 40S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 50S IN
SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...WITH NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA.

A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DUE
TO A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
PAST 36 HOURS. SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CURRENTLY ARE RUNNING
ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO 45 DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MID
LEVEL WINDS BACK AND MID LEVEL WAA BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. A
SMALL SCALE...BUT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING/LOW LEVEL FGEN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA THIS EVENING.
GIVEN VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MEASURABLE PRECIP
AND ANY CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO NARROW MOISTURE
POOLING/FGEN AXIS ACROSS THE NORTH. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH THIS EVENING.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETAE SURGE STILL APPEARS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL
WELL AFTER 12Z FOLLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. GUIDANCE STILL
DEPICTS 1 INCH PWATS WORKING ACROSS APPROXIMATELY SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH STILL SOME LESSER
CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS MORE
ROBUST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY. WILL MAINTAIN A GRADIENT TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST...WITH EXPECTATION OF AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND FAVORABLE
PROXIMITY TO LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK. PIVOTING LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COULD LEND TO SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF ONE HALF INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA.
OTHERWISE...SATURDAY STILL IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RAW DAY WITH BRISK
EASTERLY WINDS AND INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP KEEPING TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S...OR PERHAPS LOWER 50S IF A SLOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST
EVOLUTION MATERIALIZES IN REGARDS TO SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPRESS THIS UPPER WAVE SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH ONSET OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND AN END TO
PRECIP CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WILL BE MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT STILL AT
LEAST ONE FEATURE OF INTEREST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

RIDGING WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH NO
CHANCE OF RAIN AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL IN THE
MID 60S. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP SE OUT OF CANADA IN THE
TUES/TUES NGT TIME FRAME. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...BUT CONCERNED THAT TOO MUCH DRY AIR WILL RESIDE OVER THE
REGION AND LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT WILL BE EVENTUAL PHASING
WITH A CLOSED SW UPPER LEVEL LOW...RESULTING IN DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION BACK INTO RIDGING ALOFT AND
TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY TRENDING WARMER IF EVERYTHING
COMES TOGETHER CORRECTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TERMINAL SITES. VFR TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY LOWERING.
QUESTION REMAINS TIMING ONSET OF PCPN AND HOW INFLUENTIAL/DETRIMENTAL LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE TO PCPN. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...HRRR AND RUC...ARE SHOWING ONLY LIGHT QPF FROM 12-15Z
OVER THE AREA WITH HEAVIER PCPN REMAINING SOUTH. OTHER GUIDANCE
SUCH AS NAM12...LOCAL WRF AND HIRES ARW MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PCPN
ADVANCEMENT NORTHWARD MID TO LATE MORNING. HAVE STAYED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING WITH LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING MID MORNING. INTRODUCED MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES ALONG WITH
TOP/DOWN SATURATION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 242159
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
559 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 542 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION TONIGHT
INTRODUCING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW INCREASING THE REGIONS RAIN CHANCES. THEN
THIS LOW WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE
UPPER 40S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 50S IN
SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...WITH NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA.

A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DUE
TO A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
PAST 36 HOURS. SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CURRENTLY ARE RUNNING
ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO 45 DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MID
LEVEL WINDS BACK AND MID LEVEL WAA BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. A
SMALL SCALE...BUT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING/LOW LEVEL FGEN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA THIS EVENING.
GIVEN VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MEASURABLE PRECIP
AND ANY CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO NARROW MOISTURE
POOLING/FGEN AXIS ACROSS THE NORTH. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH THIS EVENING.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETAE SURGE STILL APPEARS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL
WELL AFTER 12Z FOLLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. GUIDANCE STILL
DEPICTS 1 INCH PWATS WORKING ACROSS APPROXIMATELY SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH STILL SOME LESSER
CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS MORE
ROBUST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY. WILL MAINTAIN A GRADIENT TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST...WITH EXPECTATION OF AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND FAVORABLE
PROXIMITY TO LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK. PIVOTING LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COULD LEND TO SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF ONE HALF INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA.
OTHERWISE...SATURDAY STILL IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RAW DAY WITH BRISK
EASTERLY WINDS AND INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP KEEPING TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S...OR PERHAPS LOWER 50S IF A SLOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST
EVOLUTION MATERIALIZES IN REGARDS TO SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPRESS THIS UPPER WAVE SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH ONSET OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND AN END TO
PRECIP CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WILL BE MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT STILL AT
LEAST ONE FEATURE OF INTEREST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

RIDGING WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH NO
CHANCE OF RAIN AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL IN THE
MID 60S. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP SE OUT OF CANADA IN THE
TUES/TUES NGT TIME FRAME. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...BUT CONCERNED THAT TOO MUCH DRY AIR WILL RESIDE OVER THE
REGION AND LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT WILL BE EVENTUAL PHASING
WITH A CLOSED SW UPPER LEVEL LOW...RESULTING IN DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION BACK INTO RIDGING ALOFT AND
TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY TRENDING WARMER IF EVERYTHING
COMES TOGETHER CORRECTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE KICKING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES HAS ALLOWED FOR QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS
IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A ZONE OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WITH THIS WAVE MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO EXTREME NORTHERN
INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...GREATEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS PERIOD WILL BE TOWARD MID MORNING SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY. A TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TOWARD
THE END...OR JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A SHORT
TIME...AND THEN EASTERLY TONIGHT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 242159
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
559 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 542 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION TONIGHT
INTRODUCING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW INCREASING THE REGIONS RAIN CHANCES. THEN
THIS LOW WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE
UPPER 40S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 50S IN
SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...WITH NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA.

A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DUE
TO A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
PAST 36 HOURS. SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CURRENTLY ARE RUNNING
ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO 45 DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MID
LEVEL WINDS BACK AND MID LEVEL WAA BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. A
SMALL SCALE...BUT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING/LOW LEVEL FGEN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA THIS EVENING.
GIVEN VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MEASURABLE PRECIP
AND ANY CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO NARROW MOISTURE
POOLING/FGEN AXIS ACROSS THE NORTH. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH THIS EVENING.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETAE SURGE STILL APPEARS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL
WELL AFTER 12Z FOLLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. GUIDANCE STILL
DEPICTS 1 INCH PWATS WORKING ACROSS APPROXIMATELY SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH STILL SOME LESSER
CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS MORE
ROBUST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY. WILL MAINTAIN A GRADIENT TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST...WITH EXPECTATION OF AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND FAVORABLE
PROXIMITY TO LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK. PIVOTING LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COULD LEND TO SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF ONE HALF INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA.
OTHERWISE...SATURDAY STILL IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RAW DAY WITH BRISK
EASTERLY WINDS AND INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP KEEPING TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S...OR PERHAPS LOWER 50S IF A SLOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST
EVOLUTION MATERIALIZES IN REGARDS TO SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPRESS THIS UPPER WAVE SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH ONSET OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND AN END TO
PRECIP CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WILL BE MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT STILL AT
LEAST ONE FEATURE OF INTEREST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

RIDGING WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH NO
CHANCE OF RAIN AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL IN THE
MID 60S. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP SE OUT OF CANADA IN THE
TUES/TUES NGT TIME FRAME. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...BUT CONCERNED THAT TOO MUCH DRY AIR WILL RESIDE OVER THE
REGION AND LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT WILL BE EVENTUAL PHASING
WITH A CLOSED SW UPPER LEVEL LOW...RESULTING IN DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION BACK INTO RIDGING ALOFT AND
TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY TRENDING WARMER IF EVERYTHING
COMES TOGETHER CORRECTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE KICKING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES HAS ALLOWED FOR QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS
IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A ZONE OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WITH THIS WAVE MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO EXTREME NORTHERN
INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...GREATEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS PERIOD WILL BE TOWARD MID MORNING SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY. A TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TOWARD
THE END...OR JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A SHORT
TIME...AND THEN EASTERLY TONIGHT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 242159
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
559 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 542 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION TONIGHT
INTRODUCING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW INCREASING THE REGIONS RAIN CHANCES. THEN
THIS LOW WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE
UPPER 40S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 50S IN
SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...WITH NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA.

A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DUE
TO A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
PAST 36 HOURS. SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CURRENTLY ARE RUNNING
ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO 45 DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MID
LEVEL WINDS BACK AND MID LEVEL WAA BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. A
SMALL SCALE...BUT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING/LOW LEVEL FGEN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA THIS EVENING.
GIVEN VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MEASURABLE PRECIP
AND ANY CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO NARROW MOISTURE
POOLING/FGEN AXIS ACROSS THE NORTH. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH THIS EVENING.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETAE SURGE STILL APPEARS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL
WELL AFTER 12Z FOLLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. GUIDANCE STILL
DEPICTS 1 INCH PWATS WORKING ACROSS APPROXIMATELY SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH STILL SOME LESSER
CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS MORE
ROBUST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY. WILL MAINTAIN A GRADIENT TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST...WITH EXPECTATION OF AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND FAVORABLE
PROXIMITY TO LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK. PIVOTING LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COULD LEND TO SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF ONE HALF INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA.
OTHERWISE...SATURDAY STILL IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RAW DAY WITH BRISK
EASTERLY WINDS AND INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP KEEPING TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S...OR PERHAPS LOWER 50S IF A SLOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST
EVOLUTION MATERIALIZES IN REGARDS TO SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPRESS THIS UPPER WAVE SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH ONSET OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND AN END TO
PRECIP CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WILL BE MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT STILL AT
LEAST ONE FEATURE OF INTEREST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

RIDGING WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH NO
CHANCE OF RAIN AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL IN THE
MID 60S. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP SE OUT OF CANADA IN THE
TUES/TUES NGT TIME FRAME. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...BUT CONCERNED THAT TOO MUCH DRY AIR WILL RESIDE OVER THE
REGION AND LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT WILL BE EVENTUAL PHASING
WITH A CLOSED SW UPPER LEVEL LOW...RESULTING IN DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION BACK INTO RIDGING ALOFT AND
TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY TRENDING WARMER IF EVERYTHING
COMES TOGETHER CORRECTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE KICKING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES HAS ALLOWED FOR QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS
IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A ZONE OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WITH THIS WAVE MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO EXTREME NORTHERN
INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...GREATEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS PERIOD WILL BE TOWARD MID MORNING SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY. A TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TOWARD
THE END...OR JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A SHORT
TIME...AND THEN EASTERLY TONIGHT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 242006
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
406 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...BRINGING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND RAIN
ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES REACHING ONLY INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...WITH NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA.

A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DUE
TO A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
PAST 36 HOURS. SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CURRENTLY ARE RUNNING
ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO 45 DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MID
LEVEL WINDS BACK AND MID LEVEL WAA BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. A
SMALL SCALE...BUT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING/LOW LEVEL FGEN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA THIS EVENING.
GIVEN VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MEASURABLE PRECIP
AND ANY CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO NARROW MOISTURE
POOLING/FGEN AXIS ACROSS THE NORTH. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH THIS EVENING.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETAE SURGE STILL APPEARS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL
WELL AFTER 12Z FOLLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. GUIDANCE STILL
DEPICTS 1 INCH PWATS WORKING ACROSS APPROXIMATELY SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH STILL SOME LESSER
CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS MORE
ROBUST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY. WILL MAINTAIN A GRADIENT TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST...WITH EXPECTATION OF AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND FAVORABLE
PROXIMITY TO LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK. PIVOTING LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COULD LEND TO SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF ONE HALF INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA.
OTHERWISE...SATURDAY STILL IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RAW DAY WITH BRISK
EASTERLY WINDS AND INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP KEEPING TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S...OR PERHAPS LOWER 50S IF A SLOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST
EVOLUTION MATERIALIZES IN REGARDS TO SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPRESS THIS UPPER WAVE SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH ONSET OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND AN END TO
PRECIP CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WILL BE MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT STILL AT
LEAST ONE FEATURE OF INTEREST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

RIDGING WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH NO
CHANCE OF RAIN AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL IN THE
MID 60S. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP SE OUT OF CANADA IN THE
TUES/TUES NGT TIME FRAME. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...BUT CONCERNED THAT TOO MUCH DRY AIR WILL RESIDE OVER THE
REGION AND LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT WILL BE EVENTUAL PHASING
WITH A CLOSED SW UPPER LEVEL LOW...RESULTING IN DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION BACK INTO RIDGING ALOFT AND
TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY TRENDING WARMER IF EVERYTHING
COMES TOGETHER CORRECTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE KICKING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES HAS ALLOWED FOR QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS
IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A ZONE OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WITH THIS WAVE MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO EXTREME NORTHERN
INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...GREATEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS PERIOD WILL BE TOWARD MID MORNING SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY. A TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TOWARD
THE END...OR JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A SHORT
TIME...AND THEN EASTERLY TONIGHT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 242006
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
406 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...BRINGING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND RAIN
ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES REACHING ONLY INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY...WITH NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA.

A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DUE
TO A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
PAST 36 HOURS. SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CURRENTLY ARE RUNNING
ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO 45 DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MID
LEVEL WINDS BACK AND MID LEVEL WAA BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. A
SMALL SCALE...BUT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING/LOW LEVEL FGEN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA THIS EVENING.
GIVEN VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MEASURABLE PRECIP
AND ANY CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO NARROW MOISTURE
POOLING/FGEN AXIS ACROSS THE NORTH. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH THIS EVENING.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETAE SURGE STILL APPEARS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL
WELL AFTER 12Z FOLLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. GUIDANCE STILL
DEPICTS 1 INCH PWATS WORKING ACROSS APPROXIMATELY SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH STILL SOME LESSER
CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS MORE
ROBUST EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY. WILL MAINTAIN A GRADIENT TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST...WITH EXPECTATION OF AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND FAVORABLE
PROXIMITY TO LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK. PIVOTING LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COULD LEND TO SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF ONE HALF INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA.
OTHERWISE...SATURDAY STILL IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RAW DAY WITH BRISK
EASTERLY WINDS AND INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP KEEPING TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S...OR PERHAPS LOWER 50S IF A SLOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST
EVOLUTION MATERIALIZES IN REGARDS TO SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH.

NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPRESS THIS UPPER WAVE SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH ONSET OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND AN END TO
PRECIP CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

WILL BE MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT STILL AT
LEAST ONE FEATURE OF INTEREST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

RIDGING WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH NO
CHANCE OF RAIN AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL IN THE
MID 60S. A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP SE OUT OF CANADA IN THE
TUES/TUES NGT TIME FRAME. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP...BUT CONCERNED THAT TOO MUCH DRY AIR WILL RESIDE OVER THE
REGION AND LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT WILL BE EVENTUAL PHASING
WITH A CLOSED SW UPPER LEVEL LOW...RESULTING IN DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION BACK INTO RIDGING ALOFT AND
TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 60S...POSSIBLY TRENDING WARMER IF EVERYTHING
COMES TOGETHER CORRECTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE KICKING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES HAS ALLOWED FOR QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS
IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A ZONE OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WITH THIS WAVE MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO EXTREME NORTHERN
INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...GREATEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS PERIOD WILL BE TOWARD MID MORNING SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY. A TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TOWARD
THE END...OR JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A SHORT
TIME...AND THEN EASTERLY TONIGHT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 241823
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
223 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...REACHING
55 TO 60 DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 40 TO 45 DEGREES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGH/MID CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW/MID LEVEL WAA CONTINUES TO RAMP UP. SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL REMAIN
VERY DRY HOWEVER THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BULK OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST NARROW LOW LEVEL FGEN INDUCED BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT
OF SOUTHERN IOWA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN MEASURABLE PRECIP THIS
EVENING GIVEN MOISTURE CONSIDERATIONS. PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED TEMPS
STILL APPEAR REASONABLE AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME FOR THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIRMASS WAS OVER THE REGION ALLOWING EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S AT MANY LOCATIONS. HAVE
KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING OUT UNTIL 9AM. THE SHALLOW BUT STEEP
RADIATION INVERSION SHOULD MIX OUT RATHER QUICKLY AND WITH FULL
SUN...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND
60 DEGREES. TRENDED HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER TODAY FAVORING THE GFS
WHICH HAS VERIFIED BETTER THAN THE NAM/MET WITH RETREATING COLD
AIRMASSES. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATER TODAY...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLOUDY BY EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA. KEPT CHANCES OR RAIN OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
GFS/BUFKIT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES RAPIDLY BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS LIKELY TO TAKE SOME TIME UNTIL LIFT IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPR LOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE INTO THE MID
MS/LWR OH VALLEY SATURDAY. SYSTEM SHOULD UNDERGO SOME WKNG SATURDAY
IN RESPONSE TO SHEARING AS IT ENCOUNTERS NW WINDS ON WRN PERIPHERY
OF DEEP NRLY STNRY LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA. MODELS CONT TO
SUGGEST DECENT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE MOVG INTO OUR
AREA SATURDAY ON THE NOSE OF A 50KT S-SW LLJ IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW... WITH LIFT FURTHER ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL SHRTWV LIFTING NE
ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF MAIN CIRCULATION. DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE
FACTORS... SUSPECT NAM/GFS QPF ARE OVERDONE AS BULK OF INSTABILITY
REMAINS OVER SRN IN/OH... THUS LEANED TOWARD LOWER ECMWF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH STORM TOTALS RANGING FROM UNDER A QUARTER INCH FAR NE
TO NEAR 3/4" SW. RAIN/CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S
SATURDAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA SAT EVE
AS THE WKNG LOW MOVES EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WK CAA IN
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.
LOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SUN-MON
DEEPENING CLOSED UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND IT TO BUILD VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WRN
GRTLKS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME PROVIDING FAIR BUT COOL WX IN OUR AREA
WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U50S AND LOWS IN THE M-U30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONT TO SUGGEST TROF MOVG INTO THE PAC NW TODAY
WILL DIG INTO THE SWRN U.S. AND CUT-OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONT TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LWR MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN
CONUS MID-WEEK...MERGING WITH A SHRTWV DROPPING SE FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CARVING A DEEP TROF AGAIN OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK.
HWVR MODELS CONT TO HAVE SGFNT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/LOCATION OF
THIS TROF AND POOR RUN-RUN CONTINUITY WITH LATEST GFS CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER WEST WITH THE UPR TROF WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPS THAN
INDICATED BY THE ECMWF. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY... STAYED CLOSE TO 00Z
MODEL BLEND  WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FCST FOR
WED-THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE KICKING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES HAS ALLOWED FOR QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS
IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A ZONE OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WITH THIS WAVE MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO EXTREME NORTHERN
INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...GREATEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS PERIOD WILL BE TOWARD MID MORNING SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY. A TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TOWARD
THE END...OR JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A SHORT
TIME...AND THEN EASTERLY TONIGHT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 241823
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
223 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...REACHING
55 TO 60 DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 40 TO 45 DEGREES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGH/MID CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW/MID LEVEL WAA CONTINUES TO RAMP UP. SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL REMAIN
VERY DRY HOWEVER THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BULK OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST NARROW LOW LEVEL FGEN INDUCED BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT
OF SOUTHERN IOWA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN MEASURABLE PRECIP THIS
EVENING GIVEN MOISTURE CONSIDERATIONS. PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED TEMPS
STILL APPEAR REASONABLE AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME FOR THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIRMASS WAS OVER THE REGION ALLOWING EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S AT MANY LOCATIONS. HAVE
KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING OUT UNTIL 9AM. THE SHALLOW BUT STEEP
RADIATION INVERSION SHOULD MIX OUT RATHER QUICKLY AND WITH FULL
SUN...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND
60 DEGREES. TRENDED HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER TODAY FAVORING THE GFS
WHICH HAS VERIFIED BETTER THAN THE NAM/MET WITH RETREATING COLD
AIRMASSES. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATER TODAY...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLOUDY BY EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA. KEPT CHANCES OR RAIN OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
GFS/BUFKIT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES RAPIDLY BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS LIKELY TO TAKE SOME TIME UNTIL LIFT IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPR LOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE INTO THE MID
MS/LWR OH VALLEY SATURDAY. SYSTEM SHOULD UNDERGO SOME WKNG SATURDAY
IN RESPONSE TO SHEARING AS IT ENCOUNTERS NW WINDS ON WRN PERIPHERY
OF DEEP NRLY STNRY LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA. MODELS CONT TO
SUGGEST DECENT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE MOVG INTO OUR
AREA SATURDAY ON THE NOSE OF A 50KT S-SW LLJ IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW... WITH LIFT FURTHER ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL SHRTWV LIFTING NE
ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF MAIN CIRCULATION. DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE
FACTORS... SUSPECT NAM/GFS QPF ARE OVERDONE AS BULK OF INSTABILITY
REMAINS OVER SRN IN/OH... THUS LEANED TOWARD LOWER ECMWF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH STORM TOTALS RANGING FROM UNDER A QUARTER INCH FAR NE
TO NEAR 3/4" SW. RAIN/CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S
SATURDAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA SAT EVE
AS THE WKNG LOW MOVES EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WK CAA IN
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.
LOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SUN-MON
DEEPENING CLOSED UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND IT TO BUILD VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WRN
GRTLKS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME PROVIDING FAIR BUT COOL WX IN OUR AREA
WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U50S AND LOWS IN THE M-U30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONT TO SUGGEST TROF MOVG INTO THE PAC NW TODAY
WILL DIG INTO THE SWRN U.S. AND CUT-OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONT TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LWR MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN
CONUS MID-WEEK...MERGING WITH A SHRTWV DROPPING SE FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CARVING A DEEP TROF AGAIN OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK.
HWVR MODELS CONT TO HAVE SGFNT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/LOCATION OF
THIS TROF AND POOR RUN-RUN CONTINUITY WITH LATEST GFS CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER WEST WITH THE UPR TROF WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPS THAN
INDICATED BY THE ECMWF. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY... STAYED CLOSE TO 00Z
MODEL BLEND  WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FCST FOR
WED-THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE KICKING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES HAS ALLOWED FOR QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS
IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A ZONE OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WITH THIS WAVE MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO EXTREME NORTHERN
INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...GREATEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS PERIOD WILL BE TOWARD MID MORNING SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY. A TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TOWARD
THE END...OR JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A SHORT
TIME...AND THEN EASTERLY TONIGHT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 241823
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
223 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...REACHING
55 TO 60 DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 40 TO 45 DEGREES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGH/MID CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW/MID LEVEL WAA CONTINUES TO RAMP UP. SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL REMAIN
VERY DRY HOWEVER THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BULK OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST NARROW LOW LEVEL FGEN INDUCED BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT
OF SOUTHERN IOWA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN MEASURABLE PRECIP THIS
EVENING GIVEN MOISTURE CONSIDERATIONS. PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED TEMPS
STILL APPEAR REASONABLE AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME FOR THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIRMASS WAS OVER THE REGION ALLOWING EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S AT MANY LOCATIONS. HAVE
KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING OUT UNTIL 9AM. THE SHALLOW BUT STEEP
RADIATION INVERSION SHOULD MIX OUT RATHER QUICKLY AND WITH FULL
SUN...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND
60 DEGREES. TRENDED HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER TODAY FAVORING THE GFS
WHICH HAS VERIFIED BETTER THAN THE NAM/MET WITH RETREATING COLD
AIRMASSES. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATER TODAY...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLOUDY BY EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA. KEPT CHANCES OR RAIN OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
GFS/BUFKIT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES RAPIDLY BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS LIKELY TO TAKE SOME TIME UNTIL LIFT IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPR LOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE INTO THE MID
MS/LWR OH VALLEY SATURDAY. SYSTEM SHOULD UNDERGO SOME WKNG SATURDAY
IN RESPONSE TO SHEARING AS IT ENCOUNTERS NW WINDS ON WRN PERIPHERY
OF DEEP NRLY STNRY LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA. MODELS CONT TO
SUGGEST DECENT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE MOVG INTO OUR
AREA SATURDAY ON THE NOSE OF A 50KT S-SW LLJ IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW... WITH LIFT FURTHER ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL SHRTWV LIFTING NE
ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF MAIN CIRCULATION. DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE
FACTORS... SUSPECT NAM/GFS QPF ARE OVERDONE AS BULK OF INSTABILITY
REMAINS OVER SRN IN/OH... THUS LEANED TOWARD LOWER ECMWF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH STORM TOTALS RANGING FROM UNDER A QUARTER INCH FAR NE
TO NEAR 3/4" SW. RAIN/CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S
SATURDAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA SAT EVE
AS THE WKNG LOW MOVES EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WK CAA IN
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.
LOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SUN-MON
DEEPENING CLOSED UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND IT TO BUILD VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WRN
GRTLKS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME PROVIDING FAIR BUT COOL WX IN OUR AREA
WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U50S AND LOWS IN THE M-U30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONT TO SUGGEST TROF MOVG INTO THE PAC NW TODAY
WILL DIG INTO THE SWRN U.S. AND CUT-OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONT TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LWR MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN
CONUS MID-WEEK...MERGING WITH A SHRTWV DROPPING SE FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CARVING A DEEP TROF AGAIN OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK.
HWVR MODELS CONT TO HAVE SGFNT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/LOCATION OF
THIS TROF AND POOR RUN-RUN CONTINUITY WITH LATEST GFS CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER WEST WITH THE UPR TROF WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPS THAN
INDICATED BY THE ECMWF. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY... STAYED CLOSE TO 00Z
MODEL BLEND  WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FCST FOR
WED-THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE KICKING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES HAS ALLOWED FOR QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS
IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A ZONE OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WITH THIS WAVE MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO EXTREME NORTHERN
INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...GREATEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS PERIOD WILL BE TOWARD MID MORNING SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY. A TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TOWARD
THE END...OR JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A SHORT
TIME...AND THEN EASTERLY TONIGHT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 241823
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
223 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...REACHING
55 TO 60 DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 40 TO 45 DEGREES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGH/MID CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW/MID LEVEL WAA CONTINUES TO RAMP UP. SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL REMAIN
VERY DRY HOWEVER THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BULK OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST NARROW LOW LEVEL FGEN INDUCED BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT
OF SOUTHERN IOWA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN MEASURABLE PRECIP THIS
EVENING GIVEN MOISTURE CONSIDERATIONS. PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED TEMPS
STILL APPEAR REASONABLE AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME FOR THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIRMASS WAS OVER THE REGION ALLOWING EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S AT MANY LOCATIONS. HAVE
KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING OUT UNTIL 9AM. THE SHALLOW BUT STEEP
RADIATION INVERSION SHOULD MIX OUT RATHER QUICKLY AND WITH FULL
SUN...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND
60 DEGREES. TRENDED HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER TODAY FAVORING THE GFS
WHICH HAS VERIFIED BETTER THAN THE NAM/MET WITH RETREATING COLD
AIRMASSES. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATER TODAY...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLOUDY BY EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA. KEPT CHANCES OR RAIN OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
GFS/BUFKIT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES RAPIDLY BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS LIKELY TO TAKE SOME TIME UNTIL LIFT IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPR LOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE INTO THE MID
MS/LWR OH VALLEY SATURDAY. SYSTEM SHOULD UNDERGO SOME WKNG SATURDAY
IN RESPONSE TO SHEARING AS IT ENCOUNTERS NW WINDS ON WRN PERIPHERY
OF DEEP NRLY STNRY LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA. MODELS CONT TO
SUGGEST DECENT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE MOVG INTO OUR
AREA SATURDAY ON THE NOSE OF A 50KT S-SW LLJ IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW... WITH LIFT FURTHER ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL SHRTWV LIFTING NE
ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF MAIN CIRCULATION. DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE
FACTORS... SUSPECT NAM/GFS QPF ARE OVERDONE AS BULK OF INSTABILITY
REMAINS OVER SRN IN/OH... THUS LEANED TOWARD LOWER ECMWF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH STORM TOTALS RANGING FROM UNDER A QUARTER INCH FAR NE
TO NEAR 3/4" SW. RAIN/CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S
SATURDAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA SAT EVE
AS THE WKNG LOW MOVES EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WK CAA IN
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.
LOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SUN-MON
DEEPENING CLOSED UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND IT TO BUILD VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WRN
GRTLKS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME PROVIDING FAIR BUT COOL WX IN OUR AREA
WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U50S AND LOWS IN THE M-U30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONT TO SUGGEST TROF MOVG INTO THE PAC NW TODAY
WILL DIG INTO THE SWRN U.S. AND CUT-OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONT TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LWR MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN
CONUS MID-WEEK...MERGING WITH A SHRTWV DROPPING SE FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CARVING A DEEP TROF AGAIN OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK.
HWVR MODELS CONT TO HAVE SGFNT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/LOCATION OF
THIS TROF AND POOR RUN-RUN CONTINUITY WITH LATEST GFS CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER WEST WITH THE UPR TROF WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPS THAN
INDICATED BY THE ECMWF. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY... STAYED CLOSE TO 00Z
MODEL BLEND  WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FCST FOR
WED-THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVE KICKING OUT
OF THE ROCKIES HAS ALLOWED FOR QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS
IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A ZONE OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WITH THIS WAVE MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO EXTREME NORTHERN
INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...GREATEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS PERIOD WILL BE TOWARD MID MORNING SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY. A TREND TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TOWARD
THE END...OR JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A SHORT
TIME...AND THEN EASTERLY TONIGHT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 241616
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1216 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...REACHING
55 TO 60 DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 40 TO 45 DEGREES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGH/MID CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW/MID LEVEL WAA CONTINUES TO RAMP UP. SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL REMAIN
VERY DRY HOWEVER THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BULK OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST NARROW LOW LEVEL FGEN INDUCED BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING OUT
OF SOUTHERN IOWA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN MEASURABLE PRECIP THIS
EVENING GIVEN MOISTURE CONSIDERATIONS. PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED TEMPS
STILL APPEAR REASONABLE AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME FOR THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIRMASS WAS OVER THE REGION ALLOWING EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S AT MANY LOCATIONS. HAVE
KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING OUT UNTIL 9AM. THE SHALLOW BUT STEEP
RADIATION INVERSION SHOULD MIX OUT RATHER QUICKLY AND WITH FULL
SUN...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND
60 DEGREES. TRENDED HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER TODAY FAVORING THE GFS
WHICH HAS VERIFIED BETTER THAN THE NAM/MET WITH RETREATING COLD
AIRMASSES. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATER TODAY...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLOUDY BY EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA. KEPT CHANCES OR RAIN OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
GFS/BUFKIT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES RAPIDLY BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS LIKELY TO TAKE SOME TIME UNTIL LIFT IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPR LOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE INTO THE MID
MS/LWR OH VALLEY SATURDAY. SYSTEM SHOULD UNDERGO SOME WKNG SATURDAY
IN RESPONSE TO SHEARING AS IT ENCOUNTERS NW WINDS ON WRN PERIPHERY
OF DEEP NRLY STNRY LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA. MODELS CONT TO
SUGGEST DECENT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE MOVG INTO OUR
AREA SATURDAY ON THE NOSE OF A 50KT S-SW LLJ IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW... WITH LIFT FURTHER ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL SHRTWV LIFTING NE
ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF MAIN CIRCULATION. DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE
FACTORS... SUSPECT NAM/GFS QPF ARE OVERDONE AS BULK OF INSTABILITY
REMAINS OVER SRN IN/OH... THUS LEANED TOWARD LOWER ECMWF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH STORM TOTALS RANGING FROM UNDER A QUARTER INCH FAR NE
TO NEAR 3/4" SW. RAIN/CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S
SATURDAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA SAT EVE
AS THE WKNG LOW MOVES EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WK CAA IN
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.
LOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SUN-MON
DEEPENING CLOSED UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND IT TO BUILD VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WRN
GRTLKS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME PROVIDING FAIR BUT COOL WX IN OUR AREA
WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U50S AND LOWS IN THE M-U30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONT TO SUGGEST TROF MOVG INTO THE PAC NW TODAY
WILL DIG INTO THE SWRN U.S. AND CUT-OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONT TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LWR MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN
CONUS MID-WEEK...MERGING WITH A SHRTWV DROPPING SE FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CARVING A DEEP TROF AGAIN OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK.
HWVR MODELS CONT TO HAVE SGFNT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/LOCATION OF
THIS TROF AND POOR RUN-RUN CONTINUITY WITH LATEST GFS CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER WEST WITH THE UPR TROF WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPS THAN
INDICATED BY THE ECMWF. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY... STAYED CLOSE TO 00Z
MODEL BLEND  WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FCST FOR
WED-THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS ENTIRE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES TOWARD THE REGION.
AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIRMASS TO START OUT WITH WILL BEGIN TO
SATURATE WITH SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY...HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 241334
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
934 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...REACHING
55 TO 60 DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 40 TO 45 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIRMASS WAS OVER THE REGION ALLOWING EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S AT MANY LOCATIONS. HAVE
KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING OUT UNTIL 9AM. THE SHALLOW BUT STEEP
RADIATION INVERSION SHOULD MIX OUT RATHER QUICKLY AND WITH FULL
SUN...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND
60 DEGREES. TRENDED HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER TODAY FAVORING THE GFS
WHICH HAS VERIFIED BETTER THAN THE NAM/MET WITH RETREATING COLD
AIRMASSES. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATER TODAY...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLOUDY BY EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA. KEPT CHANCES OR RAIN OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
GFS/BUFKIT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES RAPIDLY BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS LIKELY TO TAKE SOME TIME UNTIL LIFT IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPR LOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE INTO THE MID
MS/LWR OH VALLEY SATURDAY. SYSTEM SHOULD UNDERGO SOME WKNG SATURDAY
IN RESPONSE TO SHEARING AS IT ENCOUNTERS NW WINDS ON WRN PERIPHERY
OF DEEP NRLY STNRY LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA. MODELS CONT TO
SUGGEST DECENT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE MOVG INTO OUR
AREA SATURDAY ON THE NOSE OF A 50KT S-SW LLJ IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW... WITH LIFT FURTHER ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL SHRTWV LIFTING NE
ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF MAIN CIRCULATION. DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE
FACTORS... SUSPECT NAM/GFS QPF ARE OVERDONE AS BULK OF INSTABILITY
REMAINS OVER SRN IN/OH... THUS LEANED TOWARD LOWER ECMWF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH STORM TOTALS RANGING FROM UNDER A QUARTER INCH FAR NE
TO NEAR 3/4" SW. RAIN/CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S
SATURDAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA SAT EVE
AS THE WKNG LOW MOVES EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WK CAA IN
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.
LOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SUN-MON
DEEPENING CLOSED UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND IT TO BUILD VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WRN
GRTLKS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME PROVIDING FAIR BUT COOL WX IN OUR AREA
WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U50S AND LOWS IN THE M-U30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONT TO SUGGEST TROF MOVG INTO THE PAC NW TODAY
WILL DIG INTO THE SWRN U.S. AND CUT-OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONT TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LWR MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN
CONUS MID-WEEK...MERGING WITH A SHRTWV DROPPING SE FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CARVING A DEEP TROF AGAIN OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK.
HWVR MODELS CONT TO HAVE SGFNT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/LOCATION OF
THIS TROF AND POOR RUN-RUN CONTINUITY WITH LATEST GFS CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER WEST WITH THE UPR TROF WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPS THAN
INDICATED BY THE ECMWF. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY... STAYED CLOSE TO 00Z
MODEL BLEND  WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FCST FOR
WED-THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS ENTIRE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES TOWARD THE REGION.
AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIRMASS TO START OUT WITH WILL BEGIN TO
SATURATE WITH SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY...HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 241334
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
934 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...REACHING
55 TO 60 DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 40 TO 45 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIRMASS WAS OVER THE REGION ALLOWING EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S AT MANY LOCATIONS. HAVE
KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING OUT UNTIL 9AM. THE SHALLOW BUT STEEP
RADIATION INVERSION SHOULD MIX OUT RATHER QUICKLY AND WITH FULL
SUN...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND
60 DEGREES. TRENDED HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER TODAY FAVORING THE GFS
WHICH HAS VERIFIED BETTER THAN THE NAM/MET WITH RETREATING COLD
AIRMASSES. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATER TODAY...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLOUDY BY EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA. KEPT CHANCES OR RAIN OVERNIGHT LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
GFS/BUFKIT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES RAPIDLY BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS LIKELY TO TAKE SOME TIME UNTIL LIFT IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPR LOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE INTO THE MID
MS/LWR OH VALLEY SATURDAY. SYSTEM SHOULD UNDERGO SOME WKNG SATURDAY
IN RESPONSE TO SHEARING AS IT ENCOUNTERS NW WINDS ON WRN PERIPHERY
OF DEEP NRLY STNRY LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA. MODELS CONT TO
SUGGEST DECENT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE MOVG INTO OUR
AREA SATURDAY ON THE NOSE OF A 50KT S-SW LLJ IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW... WITH LIFT FURTHER ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL SHRTWV LIFTING NE
ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF MAIN CIRCULATION. DESPITE THESE FAVORABLE
FACTORS... SUSPECT NAM/GFS QPF ARE OVERDONE AS BULK OF INSTABILITY
REMAINS OVER SRN IN/OH... THUS LEANED TOWARD LOWER ECMWF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH STORM TOTALS RANGING FROM UNDER A QUARTER INCH FAR NE
TO NEAR 3/4" SW. RAIN/CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S
SATURDAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA SAT EVE
AS THE WKNG LOW MOVES EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WK CAA IN
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S.
LOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SUN-MON
DEEPENING CLOSED UPR LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND IT TO BUILD VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WRN
GRTLKS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME PROVIDING FAIR BUT COOL WX IN OUR AREA
WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U50S AND LOWS IN THE M-U30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONT TO SUGGEST TROF MOVG INTO THE PAC NW TODAY
WILL DIG INTO THE SWRN U.S. AND CUT-OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONT TO
PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LWR MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN
CONUS MID-WEEK...MERGING WITH A SHRTWV DROPPING SE FROM CENTRAL
CANADA CARVING A DEEP TROF AGAIN OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK.
HWVR MODELS CONT TO HAVE SGFNT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/LOCATION OF
THIS TROF AND POOR RUN-RUN CONTINUITY WITH LATEST GFS CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER WEST WITH THE UPR TROF WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPS THAN
INDICATED BY THE ECMWF. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY... STAYED CLOSE TO 00Z
MODEL BLEND  WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FCST FOR
WED-THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS ENTIRE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES TOWARD THE REGION.
AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIRMASS TO START OUT WITH WILL BEGIN TO
SATURATE WITH SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY...HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








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