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000
FXUS63 KIWX 260012
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
812 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID 60S. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX CURRENTLY LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING AN END TO SCT SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST AS PLANNED. MAIN STORY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN GUSTY
WINDS WITH PBL MIXING JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN SOME GUSTS
AROUND 35 KTS...AIDED IN SOME SPOTS BY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS. LLJ IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AS
PARENT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND GRADIENT RELAXES. LATEST SURFACE
OBS INDICATE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN AMBIENT WIND GUSTS AND
EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVERNIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BUT
STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND AND INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK
SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW
AS FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEAST. WAVE WILL BE INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEST CVA DOES PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCED ASCENT TO TOUCH OFF FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN EXPECTATION
FOR ANOTHER SURGE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E WITH INCREASING LLJ.
MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING. MOST OF LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS AT
LEAST SCT CONVECTION WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING AROUND NOON
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. INHERITED LIKELY POPS SEEM
APPROPRIATE AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ADD SOME TEMPORAL
DETAIL. SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE AROUND 30 KTS WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION BUT POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMIT 0-1KM MLCAPE
VALUES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OR LESS. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHEARING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN LAKES WILL FORCE A WEAK/TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
TIME...BUT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WOULD EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
INVOF THIS FEATURE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (BEST CHANCES
SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES REMOVED FROM STABLE LAKE MI PUSH).

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF
FAIR WX LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF THERMAL ADVECTION COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
SUPPORT A MILD THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE A
LITTLE GREATER GIVEN INFILTRATION OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. LATER
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RENEWED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY TRACKING THROUGH SE CANADA
FORCES AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA...WITH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ADVECTION ENHANCED IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING PLAINS UPPER WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONCERN STILL CENTERS ON STRATUS/LOWER CLOUD DECK DEVELOPMENT AND
EXPANSION LATE TONIGHT. MOIST LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS OVERHEAD
AMID MODEST MIXING SHOULD AID FORMATION...THOUGH HELD CONDS HIR
THAN THE IFR CIGS AS SEEN ERLY MON AM ACRS OZARKS...GIVEN DRIER
NEAR SFC ANTECEDENT CONDS ACRS NRN IN. ADDED AFTN SHRA MENTION AT
BOTH SITES TARGETING BEST COVERAGE TIMEFRAME AS SHORTWAVE
/PRESENTLY ACRS RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH/ DAMPENS AS IT
TRACKS NEWD INTO SWRN GRTLKS TUE AFTN. OMITTED TSRA MENTION ATTM
GIVEN LACK OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACRS NRN IN...WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES FURTHER THWARTED BY AM SFC BASED STABLE LYR.
HIR PROB OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LIKELY TO REMAIN S-SW OF
TAF SITES WITHIN COLLOCATED REGION OF 8H CONVERGENT AXIS/GREATER
INSTABILITY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA













000
FXUS63 KIWX 260012
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
812 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID 60S. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX CURRENTLY LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING AN END TO SCT SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST AS PLANNED. MAIN STORY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN GUSTY
WINDS WITH PBL MIXING JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN SOME GUSTS
AROUND 35 KTS...AIDED IN SOME SPOTS BY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS. LLJ IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AS
PARENT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND GRADIENT RELAXES. LATEST SURFACE
OBS INDICATE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN AMBIENT WIND GUSTS AND
EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVERNIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BUT
STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND AND INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK
SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW
AS FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEAST. WAVE WILL BE INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEST CVA DOES PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCED ASCENT TO TOUCH OFF FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN EXPECTATION
FOR ANOTHER SURGE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E WITH INCREASING LLJ.
MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING. MOST OF LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS AT
LEAST SCT CONVECTION WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING AROUND NOON
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. INHERITED LIKELY POPS SEEM
APPROPRIATE AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ADD SOME TEMPORAL
DETAIL. SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE AROUND 30 KTS WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION BUT POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMIT 0-1KM MLCAPE
VALUES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OR LESS. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHEARING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN LAKES WILL FORCE A WEAK/TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
TIME...BUT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WOULD EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
INVOF THIS FEATURE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (BEST CHANCES
SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES REMOVED FROM STABLE LAKE MI PUSH).

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF
FAIR WX LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF THERMAL ADVECTION COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
SUPPORT A MILD THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE A
LITTLE GREATER GIVEN INFILTRATION OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. LATER
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RENEWED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY TRACKING THROUGH SE CANADA
FORCES AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA...WITH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ADVECTION ENHANCED IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING PLAINS UPPER WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONCERN STILL CENTERS ON STRATUS/LOWER CLOUD DECK DEVELOPMENT AND
EXPANSION LATE TONIGHT. MOIST LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS OVERHEAD
AMID MODEST MIXING SHOULD AID FORMATION...THOUGH HELD CONDS HIR
THAN THE IFR CIGS AS SEEN ERLY MON AM ACRS OZARKS...GIVEN DRIER
NEAR SFC ANTECEDENT CONDS ACRS NRN IN. ADDED AFTN SHRA MENTION AT
BOTH SITES TARGETING BEST COVERAGE TIMEFRAME AS SHORTWAVE
/PRESENTLY ACRS RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH/ DAMPENS AS IT
TRACKS NEWD INTO SWRN GRTLKS TUE AFTN. OMITTED TSRA MENTION ATTM
GIVEN LACK OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACRS NRN IN...WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES FURTHER THWARTED BY AM SFC BASED STABLE LYR.
HIR PROB OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LIKELY TO REMAIN S-SW OF
TAF SITES WITHIN COLLOCATED REGION OF 8H CONVERGENT AXIS/GREATER
INSTABILITY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA













000
FXUS63 KIWX 260012
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
812 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID 60S. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX CURRENTLY LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING AN END TO SCT SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST AS PLANNED. MAIN STORY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN GUSTY
WINDS WITH PBL MIXING JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN SOME GUSTS
AROUND 35 KTS...AIDED IN SOME SPOTS BY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS. LLJ IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AS
PARENT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND GRADIENT RELAXES. LATEST SURFACE
OBS INDICATE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN AMBIENT WIND GUSTS AND
EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVERNIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BUT
STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND AND INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK
SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW
AS FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEAST. WAVE WILL BE INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEST CVA DOES PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCED ASCENT TO TOUCH OFF FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN EXPECTATION
FOR ANOTHER SURGE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E WITH INCREASING LLJ.
MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING. MOST OF LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS AT
LEAST SCT CONVECTION WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING AROUND NOON
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. INHERITED LIKELY POPS SEEM
APPROPRIATE AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ADD SOME TEMPORAL
DETAIL. SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE AROUND 30 KTS WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION BUT POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMIT 0-1KM MLCAPE
VALUES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OR LESS. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHEARING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN LAKES WILL FORCE A WEAK/TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
TIME...BUT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WOULD EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
INVOF THIS FEATURE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (BEST CHANCES
SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES REMOVED FROM STABLE LAKE MI PUSH).

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF
FAIR WX LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF THERMAL ADVECTION COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
SUPPORT A MILD THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE A
LITTLE GREATER GIVEN INFILTRATION OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. LATER
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RENEWED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY TRACKING THROUGH SE CANADA
FORCES AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA...WITH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ADVECTION ENHANCED IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING PLAINS UPPER WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONCERN STILL CENTERS ON STRATUS/LOWER CLOUD DECK DEVELOPMENT AND
EXPANSION LATE TONIGHT. MOIST LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS OVERHEAD
AMID MODEST MIXING SHOULD AID FORMATION...THOUGH HELD CONDS HIR
THAN THE IFR CIGS AS SEEN ERLY MON AM ACRS OZARKS...GIVEN DRIER
NEAR SFC ANTECEDENT CONDS ACRS NRN IN. ADDED AFTN SHRA MENTION AT
BOTH SITES TARGETING BEST COVERAGE TIMEFRAME AS SHORTWAVE
/PRESENTLY ACRS RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH/ DAMPENS AS IT
TRACKS NEWD INTO SWRN GRTLKS TUE AFTN. OMITTED TSRA MENTION ATTM
GIVEN LACK OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACRS NRN IN...WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES FURTHER THWARTED BY AM SFC BASED STABLE LYR.
HIR PROB OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LIKELY TO REMAIN S-SW OF
TAF SITES WITHIN COLLOCATED REGION OF 8H CONVERGENT AXIS/GREATER
INSTABILITY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA














000
FXUS63 KIWX 260012
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
812 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID 60S. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX CURRENTLY LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING AN END TO SCT SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST AS PLANNED. MAIN STORY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN GUSTY
WINDS WITH PBL MIXING JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN SOME GUSTS
AROUND 35 KTS...AIDED IN SOME SPOTS BY LINE OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS. LLJ IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AS
PARENT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND GRADIENT RELAXES. LATEST SURFACE
OBS INDICATE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN AMBIENT WIND GUSTS AND
EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVERNIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BUT
STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND AND INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK
SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW
AS FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEAST. WAVE WILL BE INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEST CVA DOES PASS JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCED ASCENT TO TOUCH OFF FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN EXPECTATION
FOR ANOTHER SURGE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E WITH INCREASING LLJ.
MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING. MOST OF LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS AT
LEAST SCT CONVECTION WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING AROUND NOON
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. INHERITED LIKELY POPS SEEM
APPROPRIATE AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ADD SOME TEMPORAL
DETAIL. SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE AROUND 30 KTS WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION BUT POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMIT 0-1KM MLCAPE
VALUES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OR LESS. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHEARING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN LAKES WILL FORCE A WEAK/TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
TIME...BUT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WOULD EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
INVOF THIS FEATURE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (BEST CHANCES
SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES REMOVED FROM STABLE LAKE MI PUSH).

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF
FAIR WX LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF THERMAL ADVECTION COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
SUPPORT A MILD THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE A
LITTLE GREATER GIVEN INFILTRATION OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. LATER
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RENEWED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY TRACKING THROUGH SE CANADA
FORCES AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA...WITH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ADVECTION ENHANCED IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING PLAINS UPPER WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONCERN STILL CENTERS ON STRATUS/LOWER CLOUD DECK DEVELOPMENT AND
EXPANSION LATE TONIGHT. MOIST LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS OVERHEAD
AMID MODEST MIXING SHOULD AID FORMATION...THOUGH HELD CONDS HIR
THAN THE IFR CIGS AS SEEN ERLY MON AM ACRS OZARKS...GIVEN DRIER
NEAR SFC ANTECEDENT CONDS ACRS NRN IN. ADDED AFTN SHRA MENTION AT
BOTH SITES TARGETING BEST COVERAGE TIMEFRAME AS SHORTWAVE
/PRESENTLY ACRS RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH/ DAMPENS AS IT
TRACKS NEWD INTO SWRN GRTLKS TUE AFTN. OMITTED TSRA MENTION ATTM
GIVEN LACK OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACRS NRN IN...WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES FURTHER THWARTED BY AM SFC BASED STABLE LYR.
HIR PROB OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LIKELY TO REMAIN S-SW OF
TAF SITES WITHIN COLLOCATED REGION OF 8H CONVERGENT AXIS/GREATER
INSTABILITY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA














000
FXUS63 KIWX 252015
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
415 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING. SKIES TONIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO THE LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX CURRENTLY LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING AN END TO SCT SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST AS PLANNED. MAIN STORY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN GUSTY WINDS
WITH PBL MIXING JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN SOME GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...AIDED IN SOME SPOTS BY LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. LLJ IS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AS PARENT WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND GRADIENT RELAXES. LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN AMBIENT WIND GUSTS AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY OVERNIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BUT STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND
AND INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEAST. WAVE WILL BE INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEST CVA DOES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCED ASCENT TO TOUCH OFF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN EXPECTATION FOR ANOTHER
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E WITH INCREASING LLJ. MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND DIURNAL HEATING. MOST OF LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING AROUND NOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. INHERITED LIKELY POPS SEEM
APPROPRIATE AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ADD SOME TEMPORAL DETAIL.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND
30 KTS WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT
POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMIT 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000
J/KG OR LESS. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHEARING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN LAKES WILL FORCE A WEAK/TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
TIME...BUT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WOULD EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INVOF
THIS FEATURE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (BEST CHANCES SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES REMOVED FROM STABLE LAKE MI PUSH).

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF
FAIR WX LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF THERMAL ADVECTION COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT A
MILD THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER
GIVEN INFILTRATION OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. LATER FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RENEWED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AS A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY TRACKING THROUGH SE CANADA FORCES AN
ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ADVECTION ENHANCED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING PLAINS
UPPER WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN LOW END VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
SCT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE ALSO CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT DURING THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS BUT UPSTREAM OBS STILL SHOW SPORADIC MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT
SCATTER OUT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT NEXT WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COULD
LEAD TO SOME FUEL ALTERNATE STRATUS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING PER
LATEST GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/MOS GUIDANCE. WILL HOLD WITH
HIGH END MVFR FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE BY THE VERY END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 252015
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
415 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING. SKIES TONIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO THE LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX CURRENTLY LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING AN END TO SCT SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST AS PLANNED. MAIN STORY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN GUSTY WINDS
WITH PBL MIXING JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN SOME GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...AIDED IN SOME SPOTS BY LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. LLJ IS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AS PARENT WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND GRADIENT RELAXES. LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN AMBIENT WIND GUSTS AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY OVERNIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BUT STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND
AND INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEAST. WAVE WILL BE INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEST CVA DOES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCED ASCENT TO TOUCH OFF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN EXPECTATION FOR ANOTHER
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E WITH INCREASING LLJ. MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND DIURNAL HEATING. MOST OF LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING AROUND NOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. INHERITED LIKELY POPS SEEM
APPROPRIATE AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ADD SOME TEMPORAL DETAIL.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND
30 KTS WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT
POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMIT 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000
J/KG OR LESS. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHEARING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN LAKES WILL FORCE A WEAK/TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
TIME...BUT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WOULD EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INVOF
THIS FEATURE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (BEST CHANCES SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES REMOVED FROM STABLE LAKE MI PUSH).

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF
FAIR WX LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF THERMAL ADVECTION COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT A
MILD THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER
GIVEN INFILTRATION OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. LATER FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RENEWED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AS A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY TRACKING THROUGH SE CANADA FORCES AN
ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ADVECTION ENHANCED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING PLAINS
UPPER WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN LOW END VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
SCT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE ALSO CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT DURING THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS BUT UPSTREAM OBS STILL SHOW SPORADIC MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT
SCATTER OUT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT NEXT WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COULD
LEAD TO SOME FUEL ALTERNATE STRATUS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING PER
LATEST GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/MOS GUIDANCE. WILL HOLD WITH
HIGH END MVFR FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE BY THE VERY END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 251938
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWEEPS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
THIS WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX CURRENTLY LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING AN END TO SCT SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST AS PLANNED. MAIN STORY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN GUSTY WINDS
WITH PBL MIXING JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN SOME GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...AIDED IN SOME SPOTS BY LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. LLJ IS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AS PARENT WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND GRADIENT RELAXES. LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN AMBIENT WIND GUSTS AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY OVERNIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BUT STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND
AND INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEAST. WAVE WILL BE INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEST CVA DOES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCED ASCENT TO TOUCH OFF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN EXPECTATION FOR ANOTHER
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E WITH INCREASING LLJ. MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND DIURNAL HEATING. MOST OF LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING AROUND NOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. INHERITED LIKELY POPS SEEM
APPROPRIATE AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ADD SOME TEMPORAL DETAIL.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND
30 KTS WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT
POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMIT 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000
J/KG OR LESS. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHEARING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN LAKES WILL FORCE A WEAK/TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
TIME...BUT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WOULD EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INVOF
THIS FEATURE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (BEST CHANCES SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES REMOVED FROM STABLE LAKE MI PUSH).

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF
FAIR WX LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF THERMAL ADVECTION COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT A
MILD THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER
GIVEN INFILTRATION OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. LATER FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RENEWED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AS A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY TRACKING THROUGH SE CANADA FORCES AN
ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ADVECTION ENHANCED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING PLAINS
UPPER WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN LOW END VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
SCT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE ALSO CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT DURING THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS BUT UPSTREAM OBS STILL SHOW SPORADIC MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT
SCATTER OUT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT NEXT WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COULD
LEAD TO SOME FUEL ALTERNATE STRATUS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING PER
LATEST GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/MOS GUIDANCE. WILL HOLD WITH
HIGH END MVFR FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE BY THE VERY END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 251938
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWEEPS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
THIS WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX CURRENTLY LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING AN END TO SCT SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST AS PLANNED. MAIN STORY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN GUSTY WINDS
WITH PBL MIXING JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN SOME GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...AIDED IN SOME SPOTS BY LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. LLJ IS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AS PARENT WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND GRADIENT RELAXES. LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN AMBIENT WIND GUSTS AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY OVERNIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BUT STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND
AND INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEAST. WAVE WILL BE INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEST CVA DOES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCED ASCENT TO TOUCH OFF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN EXPECTATION FOR ANOTHER
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E WITH INCREASING LLJ. MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND DIURNAL HEATING. MOST OF LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING AROUND NOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. INHERITED LIKELY POPS SEEM
APPROPRIATE AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ADD SOME TEMPORAL DETAIL.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND
30 KTS WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT
POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMIT 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000
J/KG OR LESS. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHEARING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN LAKES WILL FORCE A WEAK/TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
TIME...BUT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WOULD EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INVOF
THIS FEATURE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (BEST CHANCES SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES REMOVED FROM STABLE LAKE MI PUSH).

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF
FAIR WX LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF THERMAL ADVECTION COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT A
MILD THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER
GIVEN INFILTRATION OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. LATER FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RENEWED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AS A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY TRACKING THROUGH SE CANADA FORCES AN
ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ADVECTION ENHANCED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING PLAINS
UPPER WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN LOW END VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
SCT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE ALSO CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT DURING THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS BUT UPSTREAM OBS STILL SHOW SPORADIC MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT
SCATTER OUT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT NEXT WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COULD
LEAD TO SOME FUEL ALTERNATE STRATUS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING PER
LATEST GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/MOS GUIDANCE. WILL HOLD WITH
HIGH END MVFR FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE BY THE VERY END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 251721
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
121 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWEEPS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
THIS WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SW OVR SE KS THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR NEWD THROUGH WI THIS AFTN WHILE
SIG MIDLVL DRYSLOT ADVTS NEWD UP ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. INBTWN LL
THETA-E BURST ALG NOSE OF LLJ ABT THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM OF NOTE
NR TERM YET RUNS COUNTER TO WWD DISPLACEMENT OF ATTENDANT UPR JET
STREAK NOT TO MENTION BTR SFC BASED MSTR TRANSPORT. HWVR POCKET OF
MORE VIGOROUS SHRA OVR WRN KY ERLY THIS MORNING XPCD TO CARRY NWD
THROUGH NW CWA THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE CONFINED.
OTRWS TRUNCATED POPS FURTHER THIS AFTN AND DROPPED ENTIRELY
OVERNIGHT.

PRIMARY ITEM OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE ESCALATION OF GRADIENT WINDS
LTR THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTN. INCOHERENT UPSTREAM CLD MASS
STEMMING FM GENERAL DECAYING/BKN BAND OF SHRA THROUGH CNTRL/SRN IL
SUGGESTS POCKETS OF INSOLATION WILL DVLP BY MID MORNING PRIOR TO
ARRIVAL OF STG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD/W DRYSLOT THIS AFT. GIVEN SLOW
EXIT/DISSIPATION OF LLJ SOME CONCERN EXISTS W/POTENTIAL MOMENTUM
TRANSFER THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED AND DEEPENING BNDRY LYR.
00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS PORTENTS SFC GUSTS TO 35KTS THIS AFTN
W/VARIOUS MIX DOWN TOOLS INDICATING 40KT GUSTS PSBL. HWVR MORE
RECENT UPSTREAM SHRA DVLPMNT THROUGH FAR WRN KY AND MORE VIGOROUS
CLD DVLPMNT THERE MAY SEDATE MORE RAPID HEATING THROUGH MORNING TIED
TO STGR FLW ALOFT AND CURTAIL THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL JUST BUMP
WINDS HIGHER YET HOLD BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PASS ON TO NXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY. NCEP MODELS AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROF EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES
INDICATE STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...FACTORS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDE FAIRLY STABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH GENERALLY TALL BUT THIN CAPES PER 00Z GFS
BUFKIT AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL COME CLOSE TO
PHASING WITH A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SHORT WAVE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. FOR NOW...GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY...KEPT MAINLY MID/CHANCE RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COULD REALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE GFS FCST MEX HIGH OF 90 DEGREES FOR LIMA ON
FRIDAY SO RAISED HIGHS TO 82 TO 86 FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR 17C. HIGHS SHOULD BY ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 80 DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN LOW END VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
SCT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE ALSO CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT DURING THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS BUT UPSTREAM OBS STILL SHOW SPORADIC MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT
SCATTER OUT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT NEXT WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COULD
LEAD TO SOME FUEL ALTERNATE STRATUS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING PER
LATEST GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/MOS GUIDANCE. WILL HOLD WITH
HIGH END MVFR FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE BY THE VERY END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 251721
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
121 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWEEPS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
THIS WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SW OVR SE KS THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR NEWD THROUGH WI THIS AFTN WHILE
SIG MIDLVL DRYSLOT ADVTS NEWD UP ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. INBTWN LL
THETA-E BURST ALG NOSE OF LLJ ABT THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM OF NOTE
NR TERM YET RUNS COUNTER TO WWD DISPLACEMENT OF ATTENDANT UPR JET
STREAK NOT TO MENTION BTR SFC BASED MSTR TRANSPORT. HWVR POCKET OF
MORE VIGOROUS SHRA OVR WRN KY ERLY THIS MORNING XPCD TO CARRY NWD
THROUGH NW CWA THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE CONFINED.
OTRWS TRUNCATED POPS FURTHER THIS AFTN AND DROPPED ENTIRELY
OVERNIGHT.

PRIMARY ITEM OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE ESCALATION OF GRADIENT WINDS
LTR THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTN. INCOHERENT UPSTREAM CLD MASS
STEMMING FM GENERAL DECAYING/BKN BAND OF SHRA THROUGH CNTRL/SRN IL
SUGGESTS POCKETS OF INSOLATION WILL DVLP BY MID MORNING PRIOR TO
ARRIVAL OF STG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD/W DRYSLOT THIS AFT. GIVEN SLOW
EXIT/DISSIPATION OF LLJ SOME CONCERN EXISTS W/POTENTIAL MOMENTUM
TRANSFER THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED AND DEEPENING BNDRY LYR.
00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS PORTENTS SFC GUSTS TO 35KTS THIS AFTN
W/VARIOUS MIX DOWN TOOLS INDICATING 40KT GUSTS PSBL. HWVR MORE
RECENT UPSTREAM SHRA DVLPMNT THROUGH FAR WRN KY AND MORE VIGOROUS
CLD DVLPMNT THERE MAY SEDATE MORE RAPID HEATING THROUGH MORNING TIED
TO STGR FLW ALOFT AND CURTAIL THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL JUST BUMP
WINDS HIGHER YET HOLD BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PASS ON TO NXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY. NCEP MODELS AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROF EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES
INDICATE STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...FACTORS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDE FAIRLY STABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH GENERALLY TALL BUT THIN CAPES PER 00Z GFS
BUFKIT AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL COME CLOSE TO
PHASING WITH A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SHORT WAVE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. FOR NOW...GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY...KEPT MAINLY MID/CHANCE RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COULD REALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE GFS FCST MEX HIGH OF 90 DEGREES FOR LIMA ON
FRIDAY SO RAISED HIGHS TO 82 TO 86 FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR 17C. HIGHS SHOULD BY ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 80 DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN LOW END VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
SCT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE ALSO CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT DURING THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS BUT UPSTREAM OBS STILL SHOW SPORADIC MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT
SCATTER OUT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT NEXT WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COULD
LEAD TO SOME FUEL ALTERNATE STRATUS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING PER
LATEST GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/MOS GUIDANCE. WILL HOLD WITH
HIGH END MVFR FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE BY THE VERY END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 251721
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
121 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWEEPS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
THIS WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SW OVR SE KS THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR NEWD THROUGH WI THIS AFTN WHILE
SIG MIDLVL DRYSLOT ADVTS NEWD UP ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. INBTWN LL
THETA-E BURST ALG NOSE OF LLJ ABT THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM OF NOTE
NR TERM YET RUNS COUNTER TO WWD DISPLACEMENT OF ATTENDANT UPR JET
STREAK NOT TO MENTION BTR SFC BASED MSTR TRANSPORT. HWVR POCKET OF
MORE VIGOROUS SHRA OVR WRN KY ERLY THIS MORNING XPCD TO CARRY NWD
THROUGH NW CWA THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE CONFINED.
OTRWS TRUNCATED POPS FURTHER THIS AFTN AND DROPPED ENTIRELY
OVERNIGHT.

PRIMARY ITEM OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE ESCALATION OF GRADIENT WINDS
LTR THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTN. INCOHERENT UPSTREAM CLD MASS
STEMMING FM GENERAL DECAYING/BKN BAND OF SHRA THROUGH CNTRL/SRN IL
SUGGESTS POCKETS OF INSOLATION WILL DVLP BY MID MORNING PRIOR TO
ARRIVAL OF STG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD/W DRYSLOT THIS AFT. GIVEN SLOW
EXIT/DISSIPATION OF LLJ SOME CONCERN EXISTS W/POTENTIAL MOMENTUM
TRANSFER THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED AND DEEPENING BNDRY LYR.
00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS PORTENTS SFC GUSTS TO 35KTS THIS AFTN
W/VARIOUS MIX DOWN TOOLS INDICATING 40KT GUSTS PSBL. HWVR MORE
RECENT UPSTREAM SHRA DVLPMNT THROUGH FAR WRN KY AND MORE VIGOROUS
CLD DVLPMNT THERE MAY SEDATE MORE RAPID HEATING THROUGH MORNING TIED
TO STGR FLW ALOFT AND CURTAIL THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL JUST BUMP
WINDS HIGHER YET HOLD BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PASS ON TO NXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY. NCEP MODELS AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROF EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES
INDICATE STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...FACTORS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDE FAIRLY STABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH GENERALLY TALL BUT THIN CAPES PER 00Z GFS
BUFKIT AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL COME CLOSE TO
PHASING WITH A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SHORT WAVE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. FOR NOW...GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY...KEPT MAINLY MID/CHANCE RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COULD REALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE GFS FCST MEX HIGH OF 90 DEGREES FOR LIMA ON
FRIDAY SO RAISED HIGHS TO 82 TO 86 FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR 17C. HIGHS SHOULD BY ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 80 DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN LOW END VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
SCT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE ALSO CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT DURING THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS BUT UPSTREAM OBS STILL SHOW SPORADIC MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT
SCATTER OUT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT NEXT WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COULD
LEAD TO SOME FUEL ALTERNATE STRATUS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING PER
LATEST GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/MOS GUIDANCE. WILL HOLD WITH
HIGH END MVFR FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE BY THE VERY END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 251539
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1139 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWEEPS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
THIS WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SW OVR SE KS THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR NEWD THROUGH WI THIS AFTN WHILE
SIG MIDLVL DRYSLOT ADVTS NEWD UP ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. INBTWN LL
THETA-E BURST ALG NOSE OF LLJ ABT THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM OF NOTE
NR TERM YET RUNS COUNTER TO WWD DISPLACEMENT OF ATTENDANT UPR JET
STREAK NOT TO MENTION BTR SFC BASED MSTR TRANSPORT. HWVR POCKET OF
MORE VIGOROUS SHRA OVR WRN KY ERLY THIS MORNING XPCD TO CARRY NWD
THROUGH NW CWA THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE CONFINED.
OTRWS TRUNCATED POPS FURTHER THIS AFTN AND DROPPED ENTIRELY
OVERNIGHT.

PRIMARY ITEM OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE ESCALATION OF GRADIENT WINDS
LTR THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTN. INCOHERENT UPSTREAM CLD MASS
STEMMING FM GENERAL DECAYING/BKN BAND OF SHRA THROUGH CNTRL/SRN IL
SUGGESTS POCKETS OF INSOLATION WILL DVLP BY MID MORNING PRIOR TO
ARRIVAL OF STG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD/W DRYSLOT THIS AFT. GIVEN SLOW
EXIT/DISSIPATION OF LLJ SOME CONCERN EXISTS W/POTENTIAL MOMENTUM
TRANSFER THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED AND DEEPENING BNDRY LYR.
00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS PORTENTS SFC GUSTS TO 35KTS THIS AFTN
W/VARIOUS MIX DOWN TOOLS INDICATING 40KT GUSTS PSBL. HWVR MORE
RECENT UPSTREAM SHRA DVLPMNT THROUGH FAR WRN KY AND MORE VIGOROUS
CLD DVLPMNT THERE MAY SEDATE MORE RAPID HEATING THROUGH MORNING TIED
TO STGR FLW ALOFT AND CURTAIL THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL JUST BUMP
WINDS HIGHER YET HOLD BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PASS ON TO NXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY. NCEP MODELS AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROF EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES
INDICATE STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...FACTORS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDE FAIRLY STABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH GENERALLY TALL BUT THIN CAPES PER 00Z GFS
BUFKIT AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL COME CLOSE TO
PHASING WITH A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SHORT WAVE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. FOR NOW...GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY...KEPT MAINLY MID/CHANCE RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COULD REALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE GFS FCST MEX HIGH OF 90 DEGREES FOR LIMA ON
FRIDAY SO RAISED HIGHS TO 82 TO 86 FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR 17C. HIGHS SHOULD BY ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 80 DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDS THIS PD. NOTABLE CHGS FM 06Z BASED ON UPSTREAM
RADAR DVLPMNT...NAMELY SHIFTING VCSH MENTION TO KFWA EARLY ON AND
ADDING TEMPO GROUP FOR ADDNL SCT SHRA DVLPMNT TWD THE NOON HOUR
BASED ON FVRBLY IMPLIED BUT LIMITED DESTABILIZATION TRENDS THROUGH
THIS MORNING SEEN IN LATEST HIGHRES GUIDANCE. HWVR PRIMARY
DIFFICULTY WILL AGAIN BE STG SFC GRADIENT WINDS W/MIXED LYR ALREADY
BEGINNING TO RESPOND SOUTH FM CNTRL IL EWD THROUGH CNTRL IN. SLWR
EWD DEPARTURE OF LL WIND MAX INVOF OF KFWA SUGGEST BTR POTENTIAL FOR
35KT GUSTS THERE EARLY THIS AFTN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 251539
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1139 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWEEPS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
THIS WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SW OVR SE KS THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR NEWD THROUGH WI THIS AFTN WHILE
SIG MIDLVL DRYSLOT ADVTS NEWD UP ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. INBTWN LL
THETA-E BURST ALG NOSE OF LLJ ABT THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM OF NOTE
NR TERM YET RUNS COUNTER TO WWD DISPLACEMENT OF ATTENDANT UPR JET
STREAK NOT TO MENTION BTR SFC BASED MSTR TRANSPORT. HWVR POCKET OF
MORE VIGOROUS SHRA OVR WRN KY ERLY THIS MORNING XPCD TO CARRY NWD
THROUGH NW CWA THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE CONFINED.
OTRWS TRUNCATED POPS FURTHER THIS AFTN AND DROPPED ENTIRELY
OVERNIGHT.

PRIMARY ITEM OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE ESCALATION OF GRADIENT WINDS
LTR THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTN. INCOHERENT UPSTREAM CLD MASS
STEMMING FM GENERAL DECAYING/BKN BAND OF SHRA THROUGH CNTRL/SRN IL
SUGGESTS POCKETS OF INSOLATION WILL DVLP BY MID MORNING PRIOR TO
ARRIVAL OF STG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD/W DRYSLOT THIS AFT. GIVEN SLOW
EXIT/DISSIPATION OF LLJ SOME CONCERN EXISTS W/POTENTIAL MOMENTUM
TRANSFER THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED AND DEEPENING BNDRY LYR.
00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS PORTENTS SFC GUSTS TO 35KTS THIS AFTN
W/VARIOUS MIX DOWN TOOLS INDICATING 40KT GUSTS PSBL. HWVR MORE
RECENT UPSTREAM SHRA DVLPMNT THROUGH FAR WRN KY AND MORE VIGOROUS
CLD DVLPMNT THERE MAY SEDATE MORE RAPID HEATING THROUGH MORNING TIED
TO STGR FLW ALOFT AND CURTAIL THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL JUST BUMP
WINDS HIGHER YET HOLD BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PASS ON TO NXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY. NCEP MODELS AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROF EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES
INDICATE STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...FACTORS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDE FAIRLY STABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH GENERALLY TALL BUT THIN CAPES PER 00Z GFS
BUFKIT AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL COME CLOSE TO
PHASING WITH A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SHORT WAVE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. FOR NOW...GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY...KEPT MAINLY MID/CHANCE RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COULD REALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE GFS FCST MEX HIGH OF 90 DEGREES FOR LIMA ON
FRIDAY SO RAISED HIGHS TO 82 TO 86 FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR 17C. HIGHS SHOULD BY ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 80 DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDS THIS PD. NOTABLE CHGS FM 06Z BASED ON UPSTREAM
RADAR DVLPMNT...NAMELY SHIFTING VCSH MENTION TO KFWA EARLY ON AND
ADDING TEMPO GROUP FOR ADDNL SCT SHRA DVLPMNT TWD THE NOON HOUR
BASED ON FVRBLY IMPLIED BUT LIMITED DESTABILIZATION TRENDS THROUGH
THIS MORNING SEEN IN LATEST HIGHRES GUIDANCE. HWVR PRIMARY
DIFFICULTY WILL AGAIN BE STG SFC GRADIENT WINDS W/MIXED LYR ALREADY
BEGINNING TO RESPOND SOUTH FM CNTRL IL EWD THROUGH CNTRL IN. SLWR
EWD DEPARTURE OF LL WIND MAX INVOF OF KFWA SUGGEST BTR POTENTIAL FOR
35KT GUSTS THERE EARLY THIS AFTN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 251116
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
716 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS
COMING WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST. HIGHS THIS
WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS AROUND
60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SW OVR SE KS THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR NEWD THROUGH WI THIS AFTN WHILE
SIG MIDLVL DRYSLOT ADVTS NEWD UP ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. INBTWN LL
THETA-E BURST ALG NOSE OF LLJ ABT THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM OF NOTE
NR TERM YET RUNS COUNTER TO WWD DISPLACEMENT OF ATTENDANT UPR JET
STREAK NOT TO MENTION BTR SFC BASED MSTR TRANSPORT. HWVR POCKET OF
MORE VIGOROUS SHRA OVR WRN KY ERLY THIS MORNING XPCD TO CARRY NWD
THROUGH NW CWA THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE CONFINED.
OTRWS TRUNCATED POPS FURTHER THIS AFTN AND DROPPED ENTIRELY
OVERNIGHT.

PRIMARY ITEM OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE ESCALATION OF GRADIENT WINDS
LTR THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTN. INCOHERENT UPSTREAM CLD MASS
STEMMING FM GENERAL DECAYING/BKN BAND OF SHRA THROUGH CNTRL/SRN IL
SUGGESTS POCKETS OF INSOLATION WILL DVLP BY MID MORNING PRIOR TO
ARRIVAL OF STG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD/W DRYSLOT THIS AFT. GIVEN SLOW
EXIT/DISSIPATION OF LLJ SOME CONCERN EXISTS W/POTENTIAL MOMENTUM
TRANSFER THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED AND DEEPENING BNDRY LYR.
00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS PORTENTS SFC GUSTS TO 35KTS THIS AFTN
W/VARIOUS MIX DOWN TOOLS INDICATING 40KT GUSTS PSBL. HWVR MORE
RECENT UPSTREAM SHRA DVLPMNT THROUGH FAR WRN KY AND MORE VIGOROUS
CLD DVLPMNT THERE MAY SEDATE MORE RAPID HEATING THROUGH MORNING TIED
TO STGR FLW ALOFT AND CURTAIL THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL JUST BUMP
WINDS HIGHER YET HOLD BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PASS ON TO NXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY. NCEP MODELS AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROF EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES
INDICATE STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...FACTORS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDE FAIRLY STABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH GENERALLY TALL BUT THIN CAPES PER 00Z GFS
BUFKIT AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL COME CLOSE TO
PHASING WITH A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SHORT WAVE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. FOR NOW...GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY...KEPT MAINLY MID/CHANCE RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COULD REALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE GFS FCST MEX HIGH OF 90 DEGREES FOR LIMA ON
FRIDAY SO RAISED HIGHS TO 82 TO 86 FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR 17C. HIGHS SHOULD BY ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 80 DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDS THIS PD. NOTABLE CHGS FM 06Z BASED ON UPSTREAM
RADAR DVLPMNT...NAMELY SHIFTING VCSH MENTION TO KFWA EARLY ON AND
ADDING TEMPO GROUP FOR ADDNL SCT SHRA DVLPMNT TWD THE NOON HOUR
BASED ON FVRBLY IMPLIED BUT LIMITED DESTABILIZATION TRENDS THROUGH
THIS MORNING SEEN IN LATEST HIGHRES GUIDANCE. HWVR PRIMARY
DIFFICULTY WILL AGAIN BE STG SFC GRADIENT WINDS W/MIXED LYR ALREADY
BEGINNING TO RESPOND SOUTH FM CNTRL IL EWD THROUGH CNTRL IN. SLWR
EWD DEPARTURE OF LL WIND MAX INVOF OF KFWA SUGGEST BTR POTENTIAL FOR
35KT GUSTS THERE EARLY THIS AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 251116
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
716 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS
COMING WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST. HIGHS THIS
WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS AROUND
60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SW OVR SE KS THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR NEWD THROUGH WI THIS AFTN WHILE
SIG MIDLVL DRYSLOT ADVTS NEWD UP ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. INBTWN LL
THETA-E BURST ALG NOSE OF LLJ ABT THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM OF NOTE
NR TERM YET RUNS COUNTER TO WWD DISPLACEMENT OF ATTENDANT UPR JET
STREAK NOT TO MENTION BTR SFC BASED MSTR TRANSPORT. HWVR POCKET OF
MORE VIGOROUS SHRA OVR WRN KY ERLY THIS MORNING XPCD TO CARRY NWD
THROUGH NW CWA THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE CONFINED.
OTRWS TRUNCATED POPS FURTHER THIS AFTN AND DROPPED ENTIRELY
OVERNIGHT.

PRIMARY ITEM OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE ESCALATION OF GRADIENT WINDS
LTR THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTN. INCOHERENT UPSTREAM CLD MASS
STEMMING FM GENERAL DECAYING/BKN BAND OF SHRA THROUGH CNTRL/SRN IL
SUGGESTS POCKETS OF INSOLATION WILL DVLP BY MID MORNING PRIOR TO
ARRIVAL OF STG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD/W DRYSLOT THIS AFT. GIVEN SLOW
EXIT/DISSIPATION OF LLJ SOME CONCERN EXISTS W/POTENTIAL MOMENTUM
TRANSFER THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED AND DEEPENING BNDRY LYR.
00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS PORTENTS SFC GUSTS TO 35KTS THIS AFTN
W/VARIOUS MIX DOWN TOOLS INDICATING 40KT GUSTS PSBL. HWVR MORE
RECENT UPSTREAM SHRA DVLPMNT THROUGH FAR WRN KY AND MORE VIGOROUS
CLD DVLPMNT THERE MAY SEDATE MORE RAPID HEATING THROUGH MORNING TIED
TO STGR FLW ALOFT AND CURTAIL THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL JUST BUMP
WINDS HIGHER YET HOLD BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PASS ON TO NXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY. NCEP MODELS AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROF EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES
INDICATE STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...FACTORS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDE FAIRLY STABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH GENERALLY TALL BUT THIN CAPES PER 00Z GFS
BUFKIT AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL COME CLOSE TO
PHASING WITH A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SHORT WAVE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. FOR NOW...GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY...KEPT MAINLY MID/CHANCE RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COULD REALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE GFS FCST MEX HIGH OF 90 DEGREES FOR LIMA ON
FRIDAY SO RAISED HIGHS TO 82 TO 86 FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR 17C. HIGHS SHOULD BY ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 80 DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDS THIS PD. NOTABLE CHGS FM 06Z BASED ON UPSTREAM
RADAR DVLPMNT...NAMELY SHIFTING VCSH MENTION TO KFWA EARLY ON AND
ADDING TEMPO GROUP FOR ADDNL SCT SHRA DVLPMNT TWD THE NOON HOUR
BASED ON FVRBLY IMPLIED BUT LIMITED DESTABILIZATION TRENDS THROUGH
THIS MORNING SEEN IN LATEST HIGHRES GUIDANCE. HWVR PRIMARY
DIFFICULTY WILL AGAIN BE STG SFC GRADIENT WINDS W/MIXED LYR ALREADY
BEGINNING TO RESPOND SOUTH FM CNTRL IL EWD THROUGH CNTRL IN. SLWR
EWD DEPARTURE OF LL WIND MAX INVOF OF KFWA SUGGEST BTR POTENTIAL FOR
35KT GUSTS THERE EARLY THIS AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 250819
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
419 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS
COMING WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST. HIGHS THIS
WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS AROUND
60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SW OVR SE KS THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR NEWD THROUGH WI THIS AFTN WHILE
SIG MIDLVL DRYSLOT ADVTS NEWD UP ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. INBTWN LL
THETA-E BURST ALG NOSE OF LLJ ABT THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM OF NOTE
NR TERM YET RUNS COUNTER TO WWD DISPLACEMENT OF ATTENDANT UPR JET
STREAK NOT TO MENTION BTR SFC BASED MSTR TRANSPORT. HWVR POCKET OF
MORE VIGOROUS SHRA OVR WRN KY ERLY THIS MORNING XPCD TO CARRY NWD
THROUGH NW CWA THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE CONFINED.
OTRWS TRUNCATED POPS FURTHER THIS AFTN AND DROPPED ENTIRELY
OVERNIGHT.

PRIMARY ITEM OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE ESCALATION OF GRADIENT WINDS
LTR THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTN. INCOHERENT UPSTREAM CLD MASS
STEMMING FM GENERAL DECAYING/BKN BAND OF SHRA THROUGH CNTRL/SRN IL
SUGGESTS POCKETS OF INSOLATION WILL DVLP BY MID MORNING PRIOR TO
ARRIVAL OF STG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD/W DRYSLOT THIS AFT. GIVEN SLOW
EXIT/DISSIPATION OF LLJ SOME CONCERN EXISTS W/POTENTIAL MOMENTUM
TRANSFER THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED AND DEEPENING BNDRY LYR.
00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS PORTENTS SFC GUSTS TO 35KTS THIS AFTN
W/VARIOUS MIX DOWN TOOLS INDICATING 40KT GUSTS PSBL. HWVR MORE
RECENT UPSTREAM SHRA DVLPMNT THROUGH FAR WRN KY AND MORE VIGOROUS
CLD DVLPMNT THERE MAY SEDATE MORE RAPID HEATING THROUGH MORNING TIED
TO STGR FLW ALOFT AND CURTAIL THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL JUST BUMP
WINDS HIGHER YET HOLD BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PASS ON TO NXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY. NCEP MODELS AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROF EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES
INDICATE STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...FACTORS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDE FAIRLY STABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH GENERALLY TALL BUT THIN CAPES PER 00Z GFS
BUFKIT AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL COME CLOSE TO
PHASING WITH A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SHORT WAVE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. FOR NOW...GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY...KEPT MAINLY MID/CHANCE RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COULD REALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE GFS FCST MEX HIGH OF 90 DEGREES FOR LIMA ON
FRIDAY SO RAISED HIGHS TO 82 TO 86 FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR 17C. HIGHS SHOULD BY ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 80 DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDS THIS PD. LLWS CONCERN REMAINS INTACT IN
DEFERENCE TO LLJ IN PLACE THIS MORNING. OTRWS KEPT VCSH
MENTION/TIMING INVOF KSBN LTR THIS MORNING UNDER THE ASSUMPTION
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ACRS ERN IL HOLDS TOGETHER. OTRWS POOR LL MSTR RTN
UNDERNEATH ENCROCHING DRYSLOT THIS AFTN OBVIATES ANY FURTHER
SENSIBLE WX MENTION FOR THE VALID TAF PD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 250819
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
419 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS
COMING WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST. HIGHS THIS
WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS AROUND
60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SW OVR SE KS THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR NEWD THROUGH WI THIS AFTN WHILE
SIG MIDLVL DRYSLOT ADVTS NEWD UP ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. INBTWN LL
THETA-E BURST ALG NOSE OF LLJ ABT THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM OF NOTE
NR TERM YET RUNS COUNTER TO WWD DISPLACEMENT OF ATTENDANT UPR JET
STREAK NOT TO MENTION BTR SFC BASED MSTR TRANSPORT. HWVR POCKET OF
MORE VIGOROUS SHRA OVR WRN KY ERLY THIS MORNING XPCD TO CARRY NWD
THROUGH NW CWA THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE CONFINED.
OTRWS TRUNCATED POPS FURTHER THIS AFTN AND DROPPED ENTIRELY
OVERNIGHT.

PRIMARY ITEM OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE ESCALATION OF GRADIENT WINDS
LTR THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTN. INCOHERENT UPSTREAM CLD MASS
STEMMING FM GENERAL DECAYING/BKN BAND OF SHRA THROUGH CNTRL/SRN IL
SUGGESTS POCKETS OF INSOLATION WILL DVLP BY MID MORNING PRIOR TO
ARRIVAL OF STG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD/W DRYSLOT THIS AFT. GIVEN SLOW
EXIT/DISSIPATION OF LLJ SOME CONCERN EXISTS W/POTENTIAL MOMENTUM
TRANSFER THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED AND DEEPENING BNDRY LYR.
00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS PORTENTS SFC GUSTS TO 35KTS THIS AFTN
W/VARIOUS MIX DOWN TOOLS INDICATING 40KT GUSTS PSBL. HWVR MORE
RECENT UPSTREAM SHRA DVLPMNT THROUGH FAR WRN KY AND MORE VIGOROUS
CLD DVLPMNT THERE MAY SEDATE MORE RAPID HEATING THROUGH MORNING TIED
TO STGR FLW ALOFT AND CURTAIL THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL JUST BUMP
WINDS HIGHER YET HOLD BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PASS ON TO NXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY. NCEP MODELS AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROF EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES
INDICATE STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...FACTORS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDE FAIRLY STABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH GENERALLY TALL BUT THIN CAPES PER 00Z GFS
BUFKIT AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL COME CLOSE TO
PHASING WITH A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SHORT WAVE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. FOR NOW...GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY...KEPT MAINLY MID/CHANCE RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COULD REALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE GFS FCST MEX HIGH OF 90 DEGREES FOR LIMA ON
FRIDAY SO RAISED HIGHS TO 82 TO 86 FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR 17C. HIGHS SHOULD BY ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 80 DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDS THIS PD. LLWS CONCERN REMAINS INTACT IN
DEFERENCE TO LLJ IN PLACE THIS MORNING. OTRWS KEPT VCSH
MENTION/TIMING INVOF KSBN LTR THIS MORNING UNDER THE ASSUMPTION
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ACRS ERN IL HOLDS TOGETHER. OTRWS POOR LL MSTR RTN
UNDERNEATH ENCROCHING DRYSLOT THIS AFTN OBVIATES ANY FURTHER
SENSIBLE WX MENTION FOR THE VALID TAF PD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 250556
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
156 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER EXISTS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. SHARP S/W WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF BROAD WESTERN
CONUS TROF LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN
DRY...HOWEVER KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NW...AS HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 00Z
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT W/ RIDGING HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE TOMORROW AS SIGNS POINT AGAINST
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. MID/UPPER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WEST/NW OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH 925-700MB MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...MASSIVE DRY SLOT AT 700MB AND ABOVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION WITH S/W PASSAGE. SLIGHT EML ADVECTION W/ WARM
NOSE/CAPPING CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB PER MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS/CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD. ONCE THIS MIXES OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...LOW
LVL JET AND UPPER FORCING WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION...AND MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE RATHER DRY. FOR WX TYPE...KEPT THUNDER OUT
OF THE FCST UNTIL AFTER 15Z...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FROM 15Z THROUGH 18Z. POPS RAMP DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z WITH DRY SLOT ROTATING THROUGH. KEPT
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BRING
PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN MOIST AND
MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHEN MOST OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MORE FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE VORT WAX WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND DECENT MIDLEVEL CVA/HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE FOCUS FOR SCT-NUM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST. FAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING WILL ALSO ALLOW THIS WAVE TO CAPITALIZE ON SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
12Z MODEL SUITE...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED AFTERNOON POPS INTO
LIKELY CATEGORY. SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE BUT PALTRY MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6 C/KM OR LESS ONLY GENERATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF
0-1KM MLCAPE DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF WE CAN GET A LITTLE BETTER
SURFACE HEATING AND/OR MOISTURE POOLING BUT CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR LOW AT THIS POINT.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING LEADS TO A MORE SUSTAINED PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
AND NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. DECENT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT MOST OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL BE STRIPPED AWAY BY THIS POINT. HELD WITH JUST HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. MARGINAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANOTHER
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO...CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK ON THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO SENDS A WEAK FRONT
INTO THE REGION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS FRONT TO STALL
SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUT DETAILS HIGHLY VARIABLE AT
THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD WITH JUST BLANKET CHANCE POPS. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE LOWER ONCE THIS BOUNDARY
PASSES BUT EXACT TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION IS UNCERTAIN AND STAYED
CLOSE TO INITIALIZED CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDS THIS PD. LLWS CONCERN REMAINS INTACT IN
DEFERENCE TO LLJ IN PLACE THIS MORNING. OTRWS KEPT VCSH
MENTION/TIMING INVOF KSBN LTR THIS MORNING UNDER THE ASSUMPTION
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ACRS ERN IL HOLDS TOGETHER. OTRWS POOR LL MSTR RTN
UNDERNEATH ENCROCHING DRYSLOT THIS AFTN OBVIATES ANY FURTHER
SENSIBLE WX MENTION FOR THE VALID TAF PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 250556
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
156 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER EXISTS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. SHARP S/W WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF BROAD WESTERN
CONUS TROF LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN
DRY...HOWEVER KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NW...AS HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 00Z
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT W/ RIDGING HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE TOMORROW AS SIGNS POINT AGAINST
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. MID/UPPER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WEST/NW OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH 925-700MB MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...MASSIVE DRY SLOT AT 700MB AND ABOVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION WITH S/W PASSAGE. SLIGHT EML ADVECTION W/ WARM
NOSE/CAPPING CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB PER MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS/CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD. ONCE THIS MIXES OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...LOW
LVL JET AND UPPER FORCING WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION...AND MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE RATHER DRY. FOR WX TYPE...KEPT THUNDER OUT
OF THE FCST UNTIL AFTER 15Z...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FROM 15Z THROUGH 18Z. POPS RAMP DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z WITH DRY SLOT ROTATING THROUGH. KEPT
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BRING
PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN MOIST AND
MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHEN MOST OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MORE FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE VORT WAX WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND DECENT MIDLEVEL CVA/HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE FOCUS FOR SCT-NUM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST. FAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING WILL ALSO ALLOW THIS WAVE TO CAPITALIZE ON SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
12Z MODEL SUITE...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED AFTERNOON POPS INTO
LIKELY CATEGORY. SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE BUT PALTRY MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6 C/KM OR LESS ONLY GENERATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF
0-1KM MLCAPE DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF WE CAN GET A LITTLE BETTER
SURFACE HEATING AND/OR MOISTURE POOLING BUT CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR LOW AT THIS POINT.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING LEADS TO A MORE SUSTAINED PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
AND NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. DECENT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT MOST OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL BE STRIPPED AWAY BY THIS POINT. HELD WITH JUST HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. MARGINAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANOTHER
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO...CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK ON THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO SENDS A WEAK FRONT
INTO THE REGION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS FRONT TO STALL
SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUT DETAILS HIGHLY VARIABLE AT
THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD WITH JUST BLANKET CHANCE POPS. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE LOWER ONCE THIS BOUNDARY
PASSES BUT EXACT TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION IS UNCERTAIN AND STAYED
CLOSE TO INITIALIZED CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDS THIS PD. LLWS CONCERN REMAINS INTACT IN
DEFERENCE TO LLJ IN PLACE THIS MORNING. OTRWS KEPT VCSH
MENTION/TIMING INVOF KSBN LTR THIS MORNING UNDER THE ASSUMPTION
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ACRS ERN IL HOLDS TOGETHER. OTRWS POOR LL MSTR RTN
UNDERNEATH ENCROCHING DRYSLOT THIS AFTN OBVIATES ANY FURTHER
SENSIBLE WX MENTION FOR THE VALID TAF PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 250556
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
156 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER EXISTS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. SHARP S/W WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF BROAD WESTERN
CONUS TROF LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN
DRY...HOWEVER KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NW...AS HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 00Z
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT W/ RIDGING HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE TOMORROW AS SIGNS POINT AGAINST
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. MID/UPPER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WEST/NW OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH 925-700MB MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...MASSIVE DRY SLOT AT 700MB AND ABOVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION WITH S/W PASSAGE. SLIGHT EML ADVECTION W/ WARM
NOSE/CAPPING CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB PER MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS/CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD. ONCE THIS MIXES OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...LOW
LVL JET AND UPPER FORCING WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION...AND MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE RATHER DRY. FOR WX TYPE...KEPT THUNDER OUT
OF THE FCST UNTIL AFTER 15Z...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FROM 15Z THROUGH 18Z. POPS RAMP DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z WITH DRY SLOT ROTATING THROUGH. KEPT
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BRING
PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN MOIST AND
MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHEN MOST OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MORE FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE VORT WAX WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND DECENT MIDLEVEL CVA/HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE FOCUS FOR SCT-NUM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST. FAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING WILL ALSO ALLOW THIS WAVE TO CAPITALIZE ON SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
12Z MODEL SUITE...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED AFTERNOON POPS INTO
LIKELY CATEGORY. SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE BUT PALTRY MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6 C/KM OR LESS ONLY GENERATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF
0-1KM MLCAPE DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF WE CAN GET A LITTLE BETTER
SURFACE HEATING AND/OR MOISTURE POOLING BUT CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR LOW AT THIS POINT.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING LEADS TO A MORE SUSTAINED PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
AND NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. DECENT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT MOST OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL BE STRIPPED AWAY BY THIS POINT. HELD WITH JUST HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. MARGINAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANOTHER
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO...CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK ON THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO SENDS A WEAK FRONT
INTO THE REGION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS FRONT TO STALL
SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUT DETAILS HIGHLY VARIABLE AT
THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD WITH JUST BLANKET CHANCE POPS. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE LOWER ONCE THIS BOUNDARY
PASSES BUT EXACT TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION IS UNCERTAIN AND STAYED
CLOSE TO INITIALIZED CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDS THIS PD. LLWS CONCERN REMAINS INTACT IN
DEFERENCE TO LLJ IN PLACE THIS MORNING. OTRWS KEPT VCSH
MENTION/TIMING INVOF KSBN LTR THIS MORNING UNDER THE ASSUMPTION
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ACRS ERN IL HOLDS TOGETHER. OTRWS POOR LL MSTR RTN
UNDERNEATH ENCROCHING DRYSLOT THIS AFTN OBVIATES ANY FURTHER
SENSIBLE WX MENTION FOR THE VALID TAF PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 242355
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER EXISTS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. SHARP S/W WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF BROAD WESTERN
CONUS TROF LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN
DRY...HOWEVER KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NW...AS HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 00Z
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT W/ RIDGING HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE TOMORROW AS SIGNS POINT AGAINST
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. MID/UPPER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WEST/NW OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH 925-700MB MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...MASSIVE DRY SLOT AT 700MB AND ABOVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION WITH S/W PASSAGE. SLIGHT EML ADVECTION W/ WARM
NOSE/CAPPING CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB PER MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS/CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD. ONCE THIS MIXES OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...LOW
LVL JET AND UPPER FORCING WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION...AND MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE RATHER DRY. FOR WX TYPE...KEPT THUNDER OUT
OF THE FCST UNTIL AFTER 15Z...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FROM 15Z THROUGH 18Z. POPS RAMP DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z WITH DRY SLOT ROTATING THROUGH. KEPT
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BRING
PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN MOIST AND
MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHEN MOST OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MORE FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE VORT WAX WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND DECENT MIDLEVEL CVA/HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE FOCUS FOR SCT-NUM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST. FAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING WILL ALSO ALLOW THIS WAVE TO CAPITALIZE ON SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
12Z MODEL SUITE...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED AFTERNOON POPS INTO
LIKELY CATEGORY. SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE BUT PALTRY MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6 C/KM OR LESS ONLY GENERATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF
0-1KM MLCAPE DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF WE CAN GET A LITTLE BETTER
SURFACE HEATING AND/OR MOISTURE POOLING BUT CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR LOW AT THIS POINT.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING LEADS TO A MORE SUSTAINED PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
AND NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. DECENT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT MOST OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL BE STRIPPED AWAY BY THIS POINT. HELD WITH JUST HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. MARGINAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANOTHER
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO...CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK ON THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO SENDS A WEAK FRONT
INTO THE REGION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS FRONT TO STALL
SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUT DETAILS HIGHLY VARIABLE AT
THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD WITH JUST BLANKET CHANCE POPS. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE LOWER ONCE THIS BOUNDARY
PASSES BUT EXACT TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION IS UNCERTAIN AND STAYED
CLOSE TO INITIALIZED CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. CONTD
CONCERN WITH RESPECT TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATER OVERNIGHT AS
DECOUPLED LOW LEVEL SSWRLY JET RAMPS TO 45-50KTS. TIMING OF PSBL
HIGH END MVFR CIGS AND SMALL CHC SHRA MON AM INVOF KSBN
ASSOCIATED WITH TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY ACRS SRN MO
LIFTING NNEWD INTO NERN IL WARRANT ONLY VCSH MENTION ATTM. MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACRS NRN IN PRECLUDE NEED FOR MENTION OF
ANY FURTHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MURPHY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 242355
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER EXISTS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. SHARP S/W WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF BROAD WESTERN
CONUS TROF LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN
DRY...HOWEVER KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NW...AS HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 00Z
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT W/ RIDGING HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE TOMORROW AS SIGNS POINT AGAINST
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. MID/UPPER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WEST/NW OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH 925-700MB MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...MASSIVE DRY SLOT AT 700MB AND ABOVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION WITH S/W PASSAGE. SLIGHT EML ADVECTION W/ WARM
NOSE/CAPPING CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB PER MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS/CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD. ONCE THIS MIXES OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...LOW
LVL JET AND UPPER FORCING WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION...AND MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE RATHER DRY. FOR WX TYPE...KEPT THUNDER OUT
OF THE FCST UNTIL AFTER 15Z...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FROM 15Z THROUGH 18Z. POPS RAMP DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z WITH DRY SLOT ROTATING THROUGH. KEPT
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BRING
PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN MOIST AND
MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHEN MOST OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MORE FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE VORT WAX WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND DECENT MIDLEVEL CVA/HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE FOCUS FOR SCT-NUM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST. FAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING WILL ALSO ALLOW THIS WAVE TO CAPITALIZE ON SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
12Z MODEL SUITE...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED AFTERNOON POPS INTO
LIKELY CATEGORY. SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE BUT PALTRY MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6 C/KM OR LESS ONLY GENERATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF
0-1KM MLCAPE DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF WE CAN GET A LITTLE BETTER
SURFACE HEATING AND/OR MOISTURE POOLING BUT CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR LOW AT THIS POINT.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING LEADS TO A MORE SUSTAINED PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
AND NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. DECENT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT MOST OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL BE STRIPPED AWAY BY THIS POINT. HELD WITH JUST HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. MARGINAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANOTHER
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO...CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK ON THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO SENDS A WEAK FRONT
INTO THE REGION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS FRONT TO STALL
SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUT DETAILS HIGHLY VARIABLE AT
THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD WITH JUST BLANKET CHANCE POPS. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE LOWER ONCE THIS BOUNDARY
PASSES BUT EXACT TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION IS UNCERTAIN AND STAYED
CLOSE TO INITIALIZED CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. CONTD
CONCERN WITH RESPECT TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATER OVERNIGHT AS
DECOUPLED LOW LEVEL SSWRLY JET RAMPS TO 45-50KTS. TIMING OF PSBL
HIGH END MVFR CIGS AND SMALL CHC SHRA MON AM INVOF KSBN
ASSOCIATED WITH TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY ACRS SRN MO
LIFTING NNEWD INTO NERN IL WARRANT ONLY VCSH MENTION ATTM. MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACRS NRN IN PRECLUDE NEED FOR MENTION OF
ANY FURTHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MURPHY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 242355
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER EXISTS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. SHARP S/W WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF BROAD WESTERN
CONUS TROF LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN
DRY...HOWEVER KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NW...AS HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 00Z
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT W/ RIDGING HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE TOMORROW AS SIGNS POINT AGAINST
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. MID/UPPER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WEST/NW OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH 925-700MB MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...MASSIVE DRY SLOT AT 700MB AND ABOVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION WITH S/W PASSAGE. SLIGHT EML ADVECTION W/ WARM
NOSE/CAPPING CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB PER MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS/CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD. ONCE THIS MIXES OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...LOW
LVL JET AND UPPER FORCING WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION...AND MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE RATHER DRY. FOR WX TYPE...KEPT THUNDER OUT
OF THE FCST UNTIL AFTER 15Z...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FROM 15Z THROUGH 18Z. POPS RAMP DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z WITH DRY SLOT ROTATING THROUGH. KEPT
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BRING
PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN MOIST AND
MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHEN MOST OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MORE FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE VORT WAX WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND DECENT MIDLEVEL CVA/HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE FOCUS FOR SCT-NUM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST. FAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING WILL ALSO ALLOW THIS WAVE TO CAPITALIZE ON SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
12Z MODEL SUITE...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED AFTERNOON POPS INTO
LIKELY CATEGORY. SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE BUT PALTRY MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6 C/KM OR LESS ONLY GENERATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF
0-1KM MLCAPE DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF WE CAN GET A LITTLE BETTER
SURFACE HEATING AND/OR MOISTURE POOLING BUT CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR LOW AT THIS POINT.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING LEADS TO A MORE SUSTAINED PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
AND NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. DECENT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT MOST OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL BE STRIPPED AWAY BY THIS POINT. HELD WITH JUST HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. MARGINAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANOTHER
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO...CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK ON THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO SENDS A WEAK FRONT
INTO THE REGION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS FRONT TO STALL
SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUT DETAILS HIGHLY VARIABLE AT
THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD WITH JUST BLANKET CHANCE POPS. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE LOWER ONCE THIS BOUNDARY
PASSES BUT EXACT TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION IS UNCERTAIN AND STAYED
CLOSE TO INITIALIZED CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. CONTD
CONCERN WITH RESPECT TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATER OVERNIGHT AS
DECOUPLED LOW LEVEL SSWRLY JET RAMPS TO 45-50KTS. TIMING OF PSBL
HIGH END MVFR CIGS AND SMALL CHC SHRA MON AM INVOF KSBN
ASSOCIATED WITH TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY ACRS SRN MO
LIFTING NNEWD INTO NERN IL WARRANT ONLY VCSH MENTION ATTM. MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACRS NRN IN PRECLUDE NEED FOR MENTION OF
ANY FURTHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MURPHY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 241950
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
SHARP S/W WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF BROAD WESTERN CONUS TROF
LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN
DRY...HOWEVER KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NW...AS HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 00Z
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT W/ RIDGING HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE TOMORROW AS SIGNS POINT AGAINST MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. MID/UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN
WEST/NW OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH
925-700MB MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...MASSIVE DRY SLOT AT 700MB AND ABOVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION WITH S/W PASSAGE. SLIGHT EML ADVECTION W/ WARM NOSE/CAPPING
CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB PER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP
SHOWERS/CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD. ONCE THIS MIXES OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...LOW LVL JET
AND UPPER FORCING WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION...AND MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE RATHER DRY. FOR WX TYPE...KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST
UNTIL AFTER 15Z...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM 15Z
THROUGH 18Z. POPS RAMP DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
18Z WITH DRY SLOT ROTATING THROUGH. KEPT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LATE IN
THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHEN MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MORE
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE VORT WAX WILL LIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LLJ
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND
DECENT MIDLEVEL CVA/HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE FOCUS FOR
SCT-NUM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST.
FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING WILL ALSO ALLOW THIS WAVE TO CAPITALIZE ON
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN 12Z MODEL SUITE...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED AFTERNOON POPS
INTO LIKELY CATEGORY. SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE BUT PALTRY MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 6 C/KM OR LESS ONLY GENERATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF 0-1KM
MLCAPE DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A FEW
STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF WE CAN GET A LITTLE BETTER SURFACE
HEATING AND/OR MOISTURE POOLING BUT CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER APPEAR LOW AT THIS POINT.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING LEADS TO A MORE SUSTAINED PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE AND
NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. DECENT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT MOST OF THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
STRIPPED AWAY BY THIS POINT. HELD WITH JUST HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW. MARGINAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW...BUT NOT
ZERO...CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON
THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS A
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO SENDS A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS FRONT TO STALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY BUT DETAILS HIGHLY VARIABLE AT THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD WITH
JUST BLANKET CHANCE POPS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE
LOWER ONCE THIS BOUNDARY PASSES BUT EXACT TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION
IS UNCERTAIN AND STAYED CLOSE TO INITIALIZED CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. MAIN CONCERN FOR TAF
PD IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM 06Z-12Z. ADDED WIND SHEAR
MENTION IN TAF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SHRA
NEAR 00Z AT KSBN AND AT BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH NEXT FCST ISSUANCE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 241950
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
SHARP S/W WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF BROAD WESTERN CONUS TROF
LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN
DRY...HOWEVER KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NW...AS HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 00Z
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT W/ RIDGING HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE TOMORROW AS SIGNS POINT AGAINST MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. MID/UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN
WEST/NW OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH
925-700MB MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...MASSIVE DRY SLOT AT 700MB AND ABOVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION WITH S/W PASSAGE. SLIGHT EML ADVECTION W/ WARM NOSE/CAPPING
CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB PER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP
SHOWERS/CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD. ONCE THIS MIXES OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...LOW LVL JET
AND UPPER FORCING WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION...AND MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE RATHER DRY. FOR WX TYPE...KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST
UNTIL AFTER 15Z...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM 15Z
THROUGH 18Z. POPS RAMP DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
18Z WITH DRY SLOT ROTATING THROUGH. KEPT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LATE IN
THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHEN MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MORE
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE VORT WAX WILL LIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LLJ
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND
DECENT MIDLEVEL CVA/HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE FOCUS FOR
SCT-NUM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST.
FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING WILL ALSO ALLOW THIS WAVE TO CAPITALIZE ON
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN 12Z MODEL SUITE...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED AFTERNOON POPS
INTO LIKELY CATEGORY. SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE BUT PALTRY MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 6 C/KM OR LESS ONLY GENERATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF 0-1KM
MLCAPE DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A FEW
STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF WE CAN GET A LITTLE BETTER SURFACE
HEATING AND/OR MOISTURE POOLING BUT CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER APPEAR LOW AT THIS POINT.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING LEADS TO A MORE SUSTAINED PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE AND
NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. DECENT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT MOST OF THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
STRIPPED AWAY BY THIS POINT. HELD WITH JUST HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW. MARGINAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW...BUT NOT
ZERO...CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON
THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS A
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO SENDS A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS FRONT TO STALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY BUT DETAILS HIGHLY VARIABLE AT THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD WITH
JUST BLANKET CHANCE POPS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE
LOWER ONCE THIS BOUNDARY PASSES BUT EXACT TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION
IS UNCERTAIN AND STAYED CLOSE TO INITIALIZED CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. MAIN CONCERN FOR TAF
PD IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM 06Z-12Z. ADDED WIND SHEAR
MENTION IN TAF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SHRA
NEAR 00Z AT KSBN AND AT BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH NEXT FCST ISSUANCE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 241722
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

RATHER SIG HGT RISES ALOFT XPCD THIS PD DOWNSTREAM OF EJECTING
INTENSE SRN STREAM SW. GIVEN 00Z CONSENSUS PLACEMENT OF MID LVL
RIDGE AXIS AND WWD TRENDING EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH...ADMITTED
LACK OF FORCING LOCALLY AND POOR MSTR ADVTN SUGGESTS POPS CAN BE
SCRAPPED FOR THE MOST PART AGAIN THROUGH THE PD IN FVR OF A
PERSISTENCE DRY FCST. HWVR WILL RETAIN MINIMIZED POP MENTION FAR
NW FOR LT THIS AFTN/ERLY EVENING IN REF TO LL THETA-E BURST THAT
CLIPS NW IN/SRN LK MI ALG NOSE OF LLJ.

OTRWS LL THERMAL RIDGE BLDS FURTHER...ON THE ORDER OF 2C AT H85
WHICH EVEN W/AN INCREASE IN MID LVL CLDS TDA SHLD EQUATE TO HIGH
TEMPS SIMILAR TO YDA...W/LOW 80S XPCD IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS WEEK AND WILL
EJECT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
MONDAY. HAVE LIMITED THE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO MONDAY MORNING
GIVEN THE LATEST EXPECTED TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE ALSO ADDED
MORE DETAIL LATER THIS WEEK AS SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROFS MOVE TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THIS WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVE STABLE AND LIMIT
CONVECTION. HAVE REMOVED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. FOR LATE THIS WEEK...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ECMWF FAVORS MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WHEREAS THE GFS IS FARTHER
SOUTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND THE SURFACE PRESSURES
NORTH OF THE FRONT...FAVOR AT LEAST A BLEND OF THE EC AND
GFS...WHICH WOULD PLACE THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT
NEXT WEEKEND...AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
FOR NOW...KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY VERY LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
KEPT HIGH MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS NEAR 65 MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. MAIN CONCERN FOR TAF
PD IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM 06Z-12Z. ADDED WIND SHEAR
MENTION IN TAF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SHRA
NEAR 00Z AT KSBN AND AT BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH NEXT FCST ISSUANCE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 241722
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

RATHER SIG HGT RISES ALOFT XPCD THIS PD DOWNSTREAM OF EJECTING
INTENSE SRN STREAM SW. GIVEN 00Z CONSENSUS PLACEMENT OF MID LVL
RIDGE AXIS AND WWD TRENDING EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH...ADMITTED
LACK OF FORCING LOCALLY AND POOR MSTR ADVTN SUGGESTS POPS CAN BE
SCRAPPED FOR THE MOST PART AGAIN THROUGH THE PD IN FVR OF A
PERSISTENCE DRY FCST. HWVR WILL RETAIN MINIMIZED POP MENTION FAR
NW FOR LT THIS AFTN/ERLY EVENING IN REF TO LL THETA-E BURST THAT
CLIPS NW IN/SRN LK MI ALG NOSE OF LLJ.

OTRWS LL THERMAL RIDGE BLDS FURTHER...ON THE ORDER OF 2C AT H85
WHICH EVEN W/AN INCREASE IN MID LVL CLDS TDA SHLD EQUATE TO HIGH
TEMPS SIMILAR TO YDA...W/LOW 80S XPCD IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS WEEK AND WILL
EJECT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
MONDAY. HAVE LIMITED THE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO MONDAY MORNING
GIVEN THE LATEST EXPECTED TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE ALSO ADDED
MORE DETAIL LATER THIS WEEK AS SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROFS MOVE TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THIS WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVE STABLE AND LIMIT
CONVECTION. HAVE REMOVED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. FOR LATE THIS WEEK...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ECMWF FAVORS MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WHEREAS THE GFS IS FARTHER
SOUTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND THE SURFACE PRESSURES
NORTH OF THE FRONT...FAVOR AT LEAST A BLEND OF THE EC AND
GFS...WHICH WOULD PLACE THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT
NEXT WEEKEND...AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
FOR NOW...KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY VERY LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
KEPT HIGH MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS NEAR 65 MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. MAIN CONCERN FOR TAF
PD IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM 06Z-12Z. ADDED WIND SHEAR
MENTION IN TAF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SHRA
NEAR 00Z AT KSBN AND AT BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH NEXT FCST ISSUANCE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 241722
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

RATHER SIG HGT RISES ALOFT XPCD THIS PD DOWNSTREAM OF EJECTING
INTENSE SRN STREAM SW. GIVEN 00Z CONSENSUS PLACEMENT OF MID LVL
RIDGE AXIS AND WWD TRENDING EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH...ADMITTED
LACK OF FORCING LOCALLY AND POOR MSTR ADVTN SUGGESTS POPS CAN BE
SCRAPPED FOR THE MOST PART AGAIN THROUGH THE PD IN FVR OF A
PERSISTENCE DRY FCST. HWVR WILL RETAIN MINIMIZED POP MENTION FAR
NW FOR LT THIS AFTN/ERLY EVENING IN REF TO LL THETA-E BURST THAT
CLIPS NW IN/SRN LK MI ALG NOSE OF LLJ.

OTRWS LL THERMAL RIDGE BLDS FURTHER...ON THE ORDER OF 2C AT H85
WHICH EVEN W/AN INCREASE IN MID LVL CLDS TDA SHLD EQUATE TO HIGH
TEMPS SIMILAR TO YDA...W/LOW 80S XPCD IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS WEEK AND WILL
EJECT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
MONDAY. HAVE LIMITED THE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO MONDAY MORNING
GIVEN THE LATEST EXPECTED TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE ALSO ADDED
MORE DETAIL LATER THIS WEEK AS SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROFS MOVE TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THIS WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVE STABLE AND LIMIT
CONVECTION. HAVE REMOVED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. FOR LATE THIS WEEK...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ECMWF FAVORS MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WHEREAS THE GFS IS FARTHER
SOUTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND THE SURFACE PRESSURES
NORTH OF THE FRONT...FAVOR AT LEAST A BLEND OF THE EC AND
GFS...WHICH WOULD PLACE THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT
NEXT WEEKEND...AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
FOR NOW...KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY VERY LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
KEPT HIGH MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS NEAR 65 MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. MAIN CONCERN FOR TAF
PD IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM 06Z-12Z. ADDED WIND SHEAR
MENTION IN TAF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SHRA
NEAR 00Z AT KSBN AND AT BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH NEXT FCST ISSUANCE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 240823
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
423 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONDITIONS DRY
AND WARM TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AND
THEN LATER THIS WEEK AS HUMIDITY INCREASES AND AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS AROUND 65.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

RATHER SIG HGT RISES ALOFT XPCD THIS PD DOWNSTREAM OF EJECTING
INTENSE SRN STREAM SW. GIVEN 00Z CONSENSUS PLACEMENT OF MID LVL
RIDGE AXIS AND WWD TRENDING EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH...ADMITTED
LACK OF FORCING LOCALLY AND POOR MSTR ADVTN SUGGESTS POPS CAN BE
SCRAPPED FOR THE MOST PART AGAIN THROUGH THE PD IN FVR OF A
PERSISTENCE DRY FCST. HWVR WILL RETAIN MINIMIZED POP MENTION FAR
NW FOR LT THIS AFTN/ERLY EVENING IN REF TO LL THETA-E BURST THAT
CLIPS NW IN/SRN LK MI ALG NOSE OF LLJ.

OTRWS LL THERMAL RIDGE BLDS FURTHER...ON THE ORDER OF 2C AT H85
WHICH EVEN W/AN INCREASE IN MID LVL CLDS TDA SHLD EQUATE TO HIGH
TEMPS SIMILAR TO YDA...W/LOW 80S XPCD IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS WEEK AND WILL
EJECT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
MONDAY. HAVE LIMITED THE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO MONDAY MORNING
GIVEN THE LATEST EXPECTED TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE ALSO ADDED
MORE DETAIL LATER THIS WEEK AS SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROFS MOVE TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THIS WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVE STABLE AND LIMIT
CONVECTION. HAVE REMOVED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. FOR LATE THIS WEEK...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ECMWF FAVORS MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WHEREAS THE GFS IS FARTHER
SOUTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND THE SURFACE PRESSURES
NORTH OF THE FRONT...FAVOR AT LEAST A BLEND OF THE EC AND
GFS...WHICH WOULD PLACE THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT
NEXT WEEKEND...AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
FOR NOW...KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY VERY LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
KEPT HIGH MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS NEAR 65 MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 420
AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDS WILL CONT THIS PD AS RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT HOLDS FIRM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 240823
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
423 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONDITIONS DRY
AND WARM TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AND
THEN LATER THIS WEEK AS HUMIDITY INCREASES AND AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS AROUND 65.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

RATHER SIG HGT RISES ALOFT XPCD THIS PD DOWNSTREAM OF EJECTING
INTENSE SRN STREAM SW. GIVEN 00Z CONSENSUS PLACEMENT OF MID LVL
RIDGE AXIS AND WWD TRENDING EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH...ADMITTED
LACK OF FORCING LOCALLY AND POOR MSTR ADVTN SUGGESTS POPS CAN BE
SCRAPPED FOR THE MOST PART AGAIN THROUGH THE PD IN FVR OF A
PERSISTENCE DRY FCST. HWVR WILL RETAIN MINIMIZED POP MENTION FAR
NW FOR LT THIS AFTN/ERLY EVENING IN REF TO LL THETA-E BURST THAT
CLIPS NW IN/SRN LK MI ALG NOSE OF LLJ.

OTRWS LL THERMAL RIDGE BLDS FURTHER...ON THE ORDER OF 2C AT H85
WHICH EVEN W/AN INCREASE IN MID LVL CLDS TDA SHLD EQUATE TO HIGH
TEMPS SIMILAR TO YDA...W/LOW 80S XPCD IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS WEEK AND WILL
EJECT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
MONDAY. HAVE LIMITED THE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO MONDAY MORNING
GIVEN THE LATEST EXPECTED TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE ALSO ADDED
MORE DETAIL LATER THIS WEEK AS SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROFS MOVE TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THIS WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVE STABLE AND LIMIT
CONVECTION. HAVE REMOVED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. FOR LATE THIS WEEK...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ECMWF FAVORS MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WHEREAS THE GFS IS FARTHER
SOUTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND THE SURFACE PRESSURES
NORTH OF THE FRONT...FAVOR AT LEAST A BLEND OF THE EC AND
GFS...WHICH WOULD PLACE THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT
NEXT WEEKEND...AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
FOR NOW...KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY VERY LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
KEPT HIGH MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS NEAR 65 MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 420
AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDS WILL CONT THIS PD AS RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT HOLDS FIRM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 232341
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
741 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONDITIONS DRY
AND WARM OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RELATIVELY BENIGN SHORT TERM PERIOD WX WISE...AS SFC RIDGING
CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BERMUDA UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY...W/ RETURN FLOW INCREASING INTO
THE REGION. BROAD WRN CONUS TROF ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NE
THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTN AS SUBTLE
925/850MB MOISTURE GRADIENT/TROF LIFTS INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS PALTRY ALONG THIS FEATURE...AND
ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE
700-500MB LAYER...MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND DRIER SUB CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM THE 18Z-00Z SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME....SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SUFFICE ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LEAD SHORT WAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW/MID LEVEL THETAE SURGE. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING MOISTURE IN LOWEST 5K FT FOR SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH NAM/GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGESTING SOME
RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF
FORCING HAVE MAINTAINED JUST LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE...AND MENTIONED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TS
GIVEN HIGHLY ELEVATED AND WEAK NATURE TO INSTABILITY. BREAK IN
PRECIP CHANCES MAY EVOLVE LATER SUNDAY EVENING AS THIS WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORT WAVE TO EJECT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THAT COULD SPREAD RAIN
CHANCES BACK ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING.

HAVE ALSO CONTINUED LOW TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AS
THIS SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THE BULK OF THIS FORCING MAY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING EASTWARD SHIFT
TO DEEPER MOISTURE. HAVE NOT ADDED MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMPORAL
DETAIL TO POPS MONDAY...WITH STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE. EXTENT OF
THUNDER ON MONDAY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY CONTINUED MEAGER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED MONDAY
EVENING...BEFORE A STRONGER SYNOPTIC WAVE SHEARS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION FOR TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE A RENEWED LOW
LEVEL THETAE ADVECTIVE SURGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY. SOME
MODEST INCREASE IN MID/UPPER FLOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
WAVE...BUT CONTINUED MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL ARGUES
FOR LOW SEVERE THREAT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE FOR MONDAY-
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

PREDICTABILITY DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT FROM MID WEEK AND BEYOND AS
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...DIFFICULT TO
COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIODS. THUS...HAVE
MAINTAINED BROADBRUSH LOW POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY 5-7 PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR MET CONDS AGAIN TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PD. LITTLE MORE
THAN DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTION LOCATED WELL UPSTREAM...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH BASED CU FIELD DVLPG MIDDAY INTO SUN AFTN. SRLY
FLOW CONTS AND STRENGTHENS SUN AS PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS/DEEPENING
MID LVL HGHT FALLS EMERGE/LIFT NNEWD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 232341
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
741 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONDITIONS DRY
AND WARM OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RELATIVELY BENIGN SHORT TERM PERIOD WX WISE...AS SFC RIDGING
CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BERMUDA UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY...W/ RETURN FLOW INCREASING INTO
THE REGION. BROAD WRN CONUS TROF ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NE
THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTN AS SUBTLE
925/850MB MOISTURE GRADIENT/TROF LIFTS INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS PALTRY ALONG THIS FEATURE...AND
ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE
700-500MB LAYER...MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND DRIER SUB CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM THE 18Z-00Z SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME....SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SUFFICE ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LEAD SHORT WAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW/MID LEVEL THETAE SURGE. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING MOISTURE IN LOWEST 5K FT FOR SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH NAM/GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGESTING SOME
RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF
FORCING HAVE MAINTAINED JUST LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE...AND MENTIONED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TS
GIVEN HIGHLY ELEVATED AND WEAK NATURE TO INSTABILITY. BREAK IN
PRECIP CHANCES MAY EVOLVE LATER SUNDAY EVENING AS THIS WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORT WAVE TO EJECT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THAT COULD SPREAD RAIN
CHANCES BACK ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING.

HAVE ALSO CONTINUED LOW TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AS
THIS SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THE BULK OF THIS FORCING MAY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING EASTWARD SHIFT
TO DEEPER MOISTURE. HAVE NOT ADDED MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMPORAL
DETAIL TO POPS MONDAY...WITH STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE. EXTENT OF
THUNDER ON MONDAY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY CONTINUED MEAGER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED MONDAY
EVENING...BEFORE A STRONGER SYNOPTIC WAVE SHEARS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION FOR TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE A RENEWED LOW
LEVEL THETAE ADVECTIVE SURGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY. SOME
MODEST INCREASE IN MID/UPPER FLOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
WAVE...BUT CONTINUED MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL ARGUES
FOR LOW SEVERE THREAT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE FOR MONDAY-
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

PREDICTABILITY DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT FROM MID WEEK AND BEYOND AS
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...DIFFICULT TO
COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIODS. THUS...HAVE
MAINTAINED BROADBRUSH LOW POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY 5-7 PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR MET CONDS AGAIN TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PD. LITTLE MORE
THAN DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTION LOCATED WELL UPSTREAM...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH BASED CU FIELD DVLPG MIDDAY INTO SUN AFTN. SRLY
FLOW CONTS AND STRENGTHENS SUN AS PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS/DEEPENING
MID LVL HGHT FALLS EMERGE/LIFT NNEWD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 232341
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
741 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONDITIONS DRY
AND WARM OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RELATIVELY BENIGN SHORT TERM PERIOD WX WISE...AS SFC RIDGING
CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BERMUDA UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY...W/ RETURN FLOW INCREASING INTO
THE REGION. BROAD WRN CONUS TROF ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NE
THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTN AS SUBTLE
925/850MB MOISTURE GRADIENT/TROF LIFTS INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS PALTRY ALONG THIS FEATURE...AND
ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE
700-500MB LAYER...MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND DRIER SUB CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM THE 18Z-00Z SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME....SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SUFFICE ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LEAD SHORT WAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW/MID LEVEL THETAE SURGE. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING MOISTURE IN LOWEST 5K FT FOR SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH NAM/GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGESTING SOME
RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF
FORCING HAVE MAINTAINED JUST LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE...AND MENTIONED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TS
GIVEN HIGHLY ELEVATED AND WEAK NATURE TO INSTABILITY. BREAK IN
PRECIP CHANCES MAY EVOLVE LATER SUNDAY EVENING AS THIS WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORT WAVE TO EJECT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THAT COULD SPREAD RAIN
CHANCES BACK ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING.

HAVE ALSO CONTINUED LOW TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AS
THIS SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THE BULK OF THIS FORCING MAY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING EASTWARD SHIFT
TO DEEPER MOISTURE. HAVE NOT ADDED MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMPORAL
DETAIL TO POPS MONDAY...WITH STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE. EXTENT OF
THUNDER ON MONDAY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY CONTINUED MEAGER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED MONDAY
EVENING...BEFORE A STRONGER SYNOPTIC WAVE SHEARS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION FOR TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE A RENEWED LOW
LEVEL THETAE ADVECTIVE SURGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY. SOME
MODEST INCREASE IN MID/UPPER FLOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
WAVE...BUT CONTINUED MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL ARGUES
FOR LOW SEVERE THREAT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE FOR MONDAY-
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

PREDICTABILITY DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT FROM MID WEEK AND BEYOND AS
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...DIFFICULT TO
COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIODS. THUS...HAVE
MAINTAINED BROADBRUSH LOW POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY 5-7 PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR MET CONDS AGAIN TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PD. LITTLE MORE
THAN DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTION LOCATED WELL UPSTREAM...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH BASED CU FIELD DVLPG MIDDAY INTO SUN AFTN. SRLY
FLOW CONTS AND STRENGTHENS SUN AS PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS/DEEPENING
MID LVL HGHT FALLS EMERGE/LIFT NNEWD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 232341
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
741 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONDITIONS DRY
AND WARM OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RELATIVELY BENIGN SHORT TERM PERIOD WX WISE...AS SFC RIDGING
CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BERMUDA UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY...W/ RETURN FLOW INCREASING INTO
THE REGION. BROAD WRN CONUS TROF ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NE
THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTN AS SUBTLE
925/850MB MOISTURE GRADIENT/TROF LIFTS INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS PALTRY ALONG THIS FEATURE...AND
ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE
700-500MB LAYER...MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND DRIER SUB CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM THE 18Z-00Z SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME....SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SUFFICE ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LEAD SHORT WAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW/MID LEVEL THETAE SURGE. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING MOISTURE IN LOWEST 5K FT FOR SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH NAM/GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGESTING SOME
RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF
FORCING HAVE MAINTAINED JUST LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS WARM FRONTAL FEATURE...AND MENTIONED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TS
GIVEN HIGHLY ELEVATED AND WEAK NATURE TO INSTABILITY. BREAK IN
PRECIP CHANCES MAY EVOLVE LATER SUNDAY EVENING AS THIS WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORT WAVE TO EJECT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THAT COULD SPREAD RAIN
CHANCES BACK ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING.

HAVE ALSO CONTINUED LOW TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AS
THIS SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THE BULK OF THIS FORCING MAY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING EASTWARD SHIFT
TO DEEPER MOISTURE. HAVE NOT ADDED MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMPORAL
DETAIL TO POPS MONDAY...WITH STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE. EXTENT OF
THUNDER ON MONDAY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY CONTINUED MEAGER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED MONDAY
EVENING...BEFORE A STRONGER SYNOPTIC WAVE SHEARS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION FOR TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE A RENEWED LOW
LEVEL THETAE ADVECTIVE SURGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY. SOME
MODEST INCREASE IN MID/UPPER FLOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
WAVE...BUT CONTINUED MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL ARGUES
FOR LOW SEVERE THREAT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE FOR MONDAY-
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

PREDICTABILITY DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT FROM MID WEEK AND BEYOND AS
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...DIFFICULT TO
COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIODS. THUS...HAVE
MAINTAINED BROADBRUSH LOW POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY 5-7 PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR MET CONDS AGAIN TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PD. LITTLE MORE
THAN DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTION LOCATED WELL UPSTREAM...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH BASED CU FIELD DVLPG MIDDAY INTO SUN AFTN. SRLY
FLOW CONTS AND STRENGTHENS SUN AS PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS/DEEPENING
MID LVL HGHT FALLS EMERGE/LIFT NNEWD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 231943
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
343 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES EACH
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RELATIVELY BENIGN SHORT TERM PERIOD WX WISE...AS SFC RIDGING
CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BERMUDA UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY...W/ RETURN FLOW INCREASING INTO THE
REGION. BROAD WRN CONUS TROF ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NE THROUGH
THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTN AS SUBTLE 925/850MB MOISTURE
GRADIENT/TROF LIFTS INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS PALTRY ALONG THIS FEATURE...AND ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS
HINT AT VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE 700-500MB LAYER...MEAGER LAPSE
RATES AND DRIER SUB CLOUD LAYER SHOULD LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL FROM THE 18Z-00Z SUNDAY TIMEFRAME....SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WILL SUFFICE ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LEAD SHORT WAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW/MID LEVEL THETAE SURGE. STILL SOME
QUESTIONS REGARDING MOISTURE IN LOWEST 5K FT FOR SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH NAM/GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGESTING SOME
RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF
FORCING HAVE MAINTAINED JUST LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS
WARM FRONTAL FEATURE...AND MENTIONED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TS GIVEN
HIGHLY ELEVATED AND WEAK NATURE TO INSTABILITY. BREAK IN PRECIP
CHANCES MAY EVOLVE LATER SUNDAY EVENING AS THIS WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORT WAVE TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THAT COULD SPREAD RAIN CHANCES BACK
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.

HAVE ALSO CONTINUED LOW TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AS THIS
SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE BULK
OF THIS FORCING MAY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING EASTWARD SHIFT TO
DEEPER MOISTURE. HAVE NOT ADDED MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMPORAL DETAIL
TO POPS MONDAY...WITH STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE. EXTENT OF THUNDER ON
MONDAY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY CONTINUED MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE
A STRONGER SYNOPTIC WAVE SHEARS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE A RENEWED LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTIVE
SURGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE BY TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE MAINTAINED
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY. SOME MODEST INCREASE IN MID/UPPER FLOW
SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...BUT CONTINUED MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STILL ARGUES FOR LOW SEVERE THREAT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO
CONTINUE FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

PREDICTABILITY DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT FROM MID WEEK AND BEYOND AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING SHORT WAVE.
HOWEVER WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE
FLOW AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS
FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIODS. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED BROADBRUSH LOW POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY 5-7 PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD W/ SFC RIDGING EAST OF
THE REGION. MID LVL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 231943
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
343 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES EACH
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RELATIVELY BENIGN SHORT TERM PERIOD WX WISE...AS SFC RIDGING
CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BERMUDA UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY...W/ RETURN FLOW INCREASING INTO THE
REGION. BROAD WRN CONUS TROF ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NE THROUGH
THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTN AS SUBTLE 925/850MB MOISTURE
GRADIENT/TROF LIFTS INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS PALTRY ALONG THIS FEATURE...AND ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS
HINT AT VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE 700-500MB LAYER...MEAGER LAPSE
RATES AND DRIER SUB CLOUD LAYER SHOULD LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL FROM THE 18Z-00Z SUNDAY TIMEFRAME....SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WILL SUFFICE ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LEAD SHORT WAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW/MID LEVEL THETAE SURGE. STILL SOME
QUESTIONS REGARDING MOISTURE IN LOWEST 5K FT FOR SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH NAM/GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGESTING SOME
RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF
FORCING HAVE MAINTAINED JUST LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS
WARM FRONTAL FEATURE...AND MENTIONED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TS GIVEN
HIGHLY ELEVATED AND WEAK NATURE TO INSTABILITY. BREAK IN PRECIP
CHANCES MAY EVOLVE LATER SUNDAY EVENING AS THIS WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORT WAVE TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THAT COULD SPREAD RAIN CHANCES BACK
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.

HAVE ALSO CONTINUED LOW TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AS THIS
SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE BULK
OF THIS FORCING MAY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING EASTWARD SHIFT TO
DEEPER MOISTURE. HAVE NOT ADDED MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMPORAL DETAIL
TO POPS MONDAY...WITH STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE. EXTENT OF THUNDER ON
MONDAY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY CONTINUED MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE
A STRONGER SYNOPTIC WAVE SHEARS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE A RENEWED LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTIVE
SURGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE BY TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE MAINTAINED
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY. SOME MODEST INCREASE IN MID/UPPER FLOW
SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...BUT CONTINUED MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STILL ARGUES FOR LOW SEVERE THREAT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO
CONTINUE FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

PREDICTABILITY DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT FROM MID WEEK AND BEYOND AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING SHORT WAVE.
HOWEVER WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE
FLOW AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS
FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIODS. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED BROADBRUSH LOW POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY 5-7 PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD W/ SFC RIDGING EAST OF
THE REGION. MID LVL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 231943
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
343 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES EACH
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RELATIVELY BENIGN SHORT TERM PERIOD WX WISE...AS SFC RIDGING
CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BERMUDA UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY...W/ RETURN FLOW INCREASING INTO THE
REGION. BROAD WRN CONUS TROF ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NE THROUGH
THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTN AS SUBTLE 925/850MB MOISTURE
GRADIENT/TROF LIFTS INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS PALTRY ALONG THIS FEATURE...AND ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS
HINT AT VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE 700-500MB LAYER...MEAGER LAPSE
RATES AND DRIER SUB CLOUD LAYER SHOULD LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL FROM THE 18Z-00Z SUNDAY TIMEFRAME....SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WILL SUFFICE ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LEAD SHORT WAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW/MID LEVEL THETAE SURGE. STILL SOME
QUESTIONS REGARDING MOISTURE IN LOWEST 5K FT FOR SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH NAM/GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGESTING SOME
RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF
FORCING HAVE MAINTAINED JUST LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS
WARM FRONTAL FEATURE...AND MENTIONED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TS GIVEN
HIGHLY ELEVATED AND WEAK NATURE TO INSTABILITY. BREAK IN PRECIP
CHANCES MAY EVOLVE LATER SUNDAY EVENING AS THIS WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORT WAVE TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THAT COULD SPREAD RAIN CHANCES BACK
ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.

HAVE ALSO CONTINUED LOW TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AS THIS
SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE BULK
OF THIS FORCING MAY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING EASTWARD SHIFT TO
DEEPER MOISTURE. HAVE NOT ADDED MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMPORAL DETAIL
TO POPS MONDAY...WITH STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE. EXTENT OF THUNDER ON
MONDAY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY CONTINUED MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE
A STRONGER SYNOPTIC WAVE SHEARS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE A RENEWED LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTIVE
SURGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE BY TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE MAINTAINED
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY. SOME MODEST INCREASE IN MID/UPPER FLOW
SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...BUT CONTINUED MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STILL ARGUES FOR LOW SEVERE THREAT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO
CONTINUE FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

PREDICTABILITY DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT FROM MID WEEK AND BEYOND AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ONCE AGAIN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING SHORT WAVE.
HOWEVER WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE
FLOW AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS
FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIODS. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED BROADBRUSH LOW POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY 5-7 PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD W/ SFC RIDGING EAST OF
THE REGION. MID LVL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 231723
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
123 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES EACH
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LTL OF NOTE AGAIN THIS PD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EWD RECENTERING SFC
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE WRN ATL. HWVR BACKSIDE RTN FLW AND INCREASING
THERMAL RIDGING WILL BRING ABT WARMING TEMPS. WILL AGAIN NOTCH TEMPS
HIGHER THIS AFTN IN REF TO MIXED LYR PROGS AND ABUNDANT INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO EVOLVE NEXT WEEK...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. FOR THIS PACKAGE...FAVOR A SLOWER OVERALL TREND WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLES. HAVE LOWERED RAIN/STORM
CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN NOW
FAVOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO
EJECT NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW. KEPT
TEMPERATURES WARM THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO
82 AND LOWS NEAR 65.  SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR LOW THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS BUFKIT INDICATES SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN A RELATIVELY DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER...THIN CAPES WITH VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG... AND
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AT TIMES.
SOME CONCERN THAT RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 4.5 TO 6.0
C/KM. FOR THIS REASON...LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO LESS THAN 55 PERCENT
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD W/ SFC RIDGING EAST OF
THE REGION. MID LVL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 231723
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
123 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES EACH
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LTL OF NOTE AGAIN THIS PD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EWD RECENTERING SFC
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE WRN ATL. HWVR BACKSIDE RTN FLW AND INCREASING
THERMAL RIDGING WILL BRING ABT WARMING TEMPS. WILL AGAIN NOTCH TEMPS
HIGHER THIS AFTN IN REF TO MIXED LYR PROGS AND ABUNDANT INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO EVOLVE NEXT WEEK...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. FOR THIS PACKAGE...FAVOR A SLOWER OVERALL TREND WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLES. HAVE LOWERED RAIN/STORM
CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN NOW
FAVOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO
EJECT NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW. KEPT
TEMPERATURES WARM THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO
82 AND LOWS NEAR 65.  SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR LOW THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS BUFKIT INDICATES SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN A RELATIVELY DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER...THIN CAPES WITH VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG... AND
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AT TIMES.
SOME CONCERN THAT RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 4.5 TO 6.0
C/KM. FOR THIS REASON...LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO LESS THAN 55 PERCENT
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD W/ SFC RIDGING EAST OF
THE REGION. MID LVL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 231723
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
123 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES EACH
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LTL OF NOTE AGAIN THIS PD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EWD RECENTERING SFC
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE WRN ATL. HWVR BACKSIDE RTN FLW AND INCREASING
THERMAL RIDGING WILL BRING ABT WARMING TEMPS. WILL AGAIN NOTCH TEMPS
HIGHER THIS AFTN IN REF TO MIXED LYR PROGS AND ABUNDANT INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO EVOLVE NEXT WEEK...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. FOR THIS PACKAGE...FAVOR A SLOWER OVERALL TREND WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLES. HAVE LOWERED RAIN/STORM
CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN NOW
FAVOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO
EJECT NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW. KEPT
TEMPERATURES WARM THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO
82 AND LOWS NEAR 65.  SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR LOW THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS BUFKIT INDICATES SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN A RELATIVELY DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER...THIN CAPES WITH VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG... AND
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AT TIMES.
SOME CONCERN THAT RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 4.5 TO 6.0
C/KM. FOR THIS REASON...LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO LESS THAN 55 PERCENT
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD W/ SFC RIDGING EAST OF
THE REGION. MID LVL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 231723
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
123 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES EACH
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LTL OF NOTE AGAIN THIS PD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EWD RECENTERING SFC
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE WRN ATL. HWVR BACKSIDE RTN FLW AND INCREASING
THERMAL RIDGING WILL BRING ABT WARMING TEMPS. WILL AGAIN NOTCH TEMPS
HIGHER THIS AFTN IN REF TO MIXED LYR PROGS AND ABUNDANT INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO EVOLVE NEXT WEEK...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. FOR THIS PACKAGE...FAVOR A SLOWER OVERALL TREND WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLES. HAVE LOWERED RAIN/STORM
CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN NOW
FAVOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO
EJECT NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW. KEPT
TEMPERATURES WARM THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO
82 AND LOWS NEAR 65.  SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR LOW THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS BUFKIT INDICATES SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN A RELATIVELY DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER...THIN CAPES WITH VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG... AND
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AT TIMES.
SOME CONCERN THAT RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 4.5 TO 6.0
C/KM. FOR THIS REASON...LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO LESS THAN 55 PERCENT
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD W/ SFC RIDGING EAST OF
THE REGION. MID LVL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 230819
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
419 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A WARM WEATHER PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS NEAR 65.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LTL OF NOTE AGAIN THIS PD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EWD RECENTERING SFC
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE WRN ATL. HWVR BACKSIDE RTN FLW AND INCREASING
THERMAL RIDGING WILL BRING ABT WARMING TEMPS. WILL AGAIN NOTCH TEMPS
HIGHER THIS AFTN IN REF TO MIXED LYR PROGS AND ABUNDANT INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO EVOLVE NEXT WEEK...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. FOR THIS PACKAGE...FAVOR A SLOWER OVERALL TREND WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLES. HAVE LOWERED RAIN/STORM
CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN NOW
FAVOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO
EJECT NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW. KEPT
TEMPERATURES WARM THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO
82 AND LOWS NEAR 65.  SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR LOW THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS BUFKIT INDICATES SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN A RELATIVELY DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER...THIN CAPES WITH VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG... AND
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AT TIMES.
SOME CONCERN THAT RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 4.5 TO 6.0
C/KM. FOR THIS REASON...LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO LESS THAN 55 PERCENT
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDS WILL CONT THIS PD AS SFC RIDGE HOLDS FIRM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 230819
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
419 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A WARM WEATHER PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS NEAR 65.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LTL OF NOTE AGAIN THIS PD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EWD RECENTERING SFC
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE WRN ATL. HWVR BACKSIDE RTN FLW AND INCREASING
THERMAL RIDGING WILL BRING ABT WARMING TEMPS. WILL AGAIN NOTCH TEMPS
HIGHER THIS AFTN IN REF TO MIXED LYR PROGS AND ABUNDANT INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO EVOLVE NEXT WEEK...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. FOR THIS PACKAGE...FAVOR A SLOWER OVERALL TREND WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLES. HAVE LOWERED RAIN/STORM
CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN NOW
FAVOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO
EJECT NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW. KEPT
TEMPERATURES WARM THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO
82 AND LOWS NEAR 65.  SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR LOW THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS BUFKIT INDICATES SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN GIVEN A RELATIVELY DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER...THIN CAPES WITH VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG... AND
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AT TIMES.
SOME CONCERN THAT RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 4.5 TO 6.0
C/KM. FOR THIS REASON...LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO LESS THAN 55 PERCENT
FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDS WILL CONT THIS PD AS SFC RIDGE HOLDS FIRM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 230639
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
239 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START SATURDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S REACH THE LOWER 70S WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. A NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES
SUNDAY EVENING AND PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TROF SWEPT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPED 15 TO 18 DEGREES. THIS IS NOTED ON SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWA BORDER...WHILE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE IN THE LOWER 30S. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...WITH A SLIT EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
IN THE COOLER/DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FROST IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
HRRR AND WRF BOTH SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PATCHY FROST
OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLOW APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR LATE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. UPPER LOW HAS MOVED ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN
CA AND WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...BERMUDA HIGH OVER
ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHEN AND BUILD TOWARD SOUTHEAST COAST. RESULT
WILL BE RISING HEIGHTS OVER MIDWEST WITH BUILDING SHORT WAVE
RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER AND MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT BY
LATE WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR
WIDESPREAD PCPN DEVELOPMENT BUT ANY SUBTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORT
WAVES OR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE COULD EASILY GENERATE ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BEGINNING SUNDAY GIVEN HIGH
PWATS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SMALL SCALE DETAILS REMAIN
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN WITH QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND
DISAGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERAL ENSEMBLE BLEND APPROACH
USED FOR POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
SUPERBLEND PREFERRED. DID LOWER SUPERBLEND POPS SEVERAL PERIODS
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY BUT LEFT LOW END LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY IN
THE WEST. STAYED MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH TEMPS GIVEN POSSIBILITY
OF COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN OR WARMER WITH LACK OF PCPN AND
POTENTIAL MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR MET CONDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. LITTLE MORE
THAN HIGH ALTOCU/CIRRUS CLOUD COVER ASSOCD WITH IA/WCNTL IL
SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS THROUGH/DAMPENS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACRS UPR
GRTLKS. SFC FLOW TO DECOUPLE/VEER AS CENTROID OF SFC HIGH OVHD
SHIFTS SEWD. BY LATE AM SLIGHTLY HIR SUSTAINED SRLY FLOW AS BLYR
MIXES/RIDGE PUSHES OFF MIDATL COAST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 230639
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
239 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START SATURDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S REACH THE LOWER 70S WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. A NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES
SUNDAY EVENING AND PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TROF SWEPT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND DEWPOINTS
DROPPED 15 TO 18 DEGREES. THIS IS NOTED ON SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ALONG THE SOUTHERN CWA BORDER...WHILE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE IN THE LOWER 30S. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...WITH A SLIT EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
IN THE COOLER/DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FROST IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
HRRR AND WRF BOTH SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP PATCHY FROST
OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLOW APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR LATE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. UPPER LOW HAS MOVED ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN
CA AND WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...BERMUDA HIGH OVER
ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHEN AND BUILD TOWARD SOUTHEAST COAST. RESULT
WILL BE RISING HEIGHTS OVER MIDWEST WITH BUILDING SHORT WAVE
RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER AND MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT BY
LATE WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR
WIDESPREAD PCPN DEVELOPMENT BUT ANY SUBTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORT
WAVES OR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE COULD EASILY GENERATE ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BEGINNING SUNDAY GIVEN HIGH
PWATS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SMALL SCALE DETAILS REMAIN
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN WITH QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND
DISAGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERAL ENSEMBLE BLEND APPROACH
USED FOR POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
SUPERBLEND PREFERRED. DID LOWER SUPERBLEND POPS SEVERAL PERIODS
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY BUT LEFT LOW END LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY IN
THE WEST. STAYED MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH TEMPS GIVEN POSSIBILITY
OF COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN OR WARMER WITH LACK OF PCPN AND
POTENTIAL MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR MET CONDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. LITTLE MORE
THAN HIGH ALTOCU/CIRRUS CLOUD COVER ASSOCD WITH IA/WCNTL IL
SHORTWAVE AS IT LIFTS THROUGH/DAMPENS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACRS UPR
GRTLKS. SFC FLOW TO DECOUPLE/VEER AS CENTROID OF SFC HIGH OVHD
SHIFTS SEWD. BY LATE AM SLIGHTLY HIR SUSTAINED SRLY FLOW AS BLYR
MIXES/RIDGE PUSHES OFF MIDATL COAST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








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