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000
FXUS63 KIWX 240935
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
535 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH SATURDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FRACTURED MID LEVEL TROUGH/MOISTURE AXIS WITH LITTLE/NO REFLECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEAK SUPPORT FROM A VORT MAX
(SHOWING UP OVER SRN LAKE MI ON MORNING WATER VAPOR) AND THINNING
CORRIDOR OF 850 MB MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES INTO MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SLOW EWD PROGRESSION
OF A BKN/OVC LOW CLOUD DECK. MODEST HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF THIS WEAK TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO MIX/SCATTER OUT A
BIT LATER TODAY...WITH AFTN HIGHS EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER).

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL EMERGE FROM A
PAC NW/SW CANADA 150+ KT UPPER JET AND TRACK INTO ONTARIO AND THE
NRN LAKES BY LATER TONIGHT. THE FOLD OVER OF A MORE PRONOUNCED
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE OCT STANDARDS. COULD ALSO SEE ISO
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AND STRATUS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT GIVEN MODEST
925-850 MB WAA SURGE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE/PROBABILITY IN ANY
MEASURABLE PCPN REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A MENTIONABLE POP GIVEN LACK OF
HEIGHT FALLS AND UNFAVORABLE POSITION IN RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A SRN
CANADA TO NRN LAKES UPPER JET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SYS OF NOTE FOR THIS PD LIES OUT NR 140W THIS MORNING AND WILL TURN
INLAND ALG THE WEST COAST EARLY SAT. DOWNSTREAM FLW AND PERTURBATION
STREAKING THROUGH JAMES BAY CONTS TO OSCILLATE IN SOME DEGREE AMG
MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH AS YET CONTS TO YIELD SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARD TO TEMPS MAINLY SUNDAY. 00Z SUITE AS A WHOLE MUCH MORE
SUBDUED W/BACKDOOR CDFNT SAT NIGHT AND INDICATE ROBUST LL WAA DVLPG
BY AFTN. THUS IN NOD OF GEFS AGREEMENT AND DECIDED UPWARD TREND SEE
NO REASON TO NOT BUMP SUN TEMPS UP HIGHER AGAIN.

W/PROGRESSIVE PATTN ALOFT IN PLACE WRN SYS QUICKLY AMPLIFIES NEWD
INTO CNTRL ONTARIO TUE AS TRAILING SHARP CDFNT BURSTS EAST. LL
THERMAL RIDGE AHD OF THIS FTR QUITE STG W/CORE OF 16-18C H85 TEMPS
NOSING INTO THE SRN LAKE MON. EVEN A CONSERVATIVE MIX DOWN FM H9
PORTENDS ADDNL UPWARD HEADROOM LIKELY AND SEEMS PRUDENT TO USE
WARMEST GUIDANCE BLEND PSBL. SIG LL MSTR/THETA-E SURGE WITHIN BROAD
LLJ W/WRN GOMEX ORIGINS FOLLOWS MON NIGHT/TUE AHD OF EWD SURGING
CDFNT. GIVEN FVRBL THETA-E RIDGING LT MON NIGHT AND MODEST MASS MSTR
FLUX NW THIRD ADDED A SLGT CHC POP FOR SHRA W/TSRA PSBL AS WHATS
LEFT OF PLAINS EML ADVTS OVERHEAD. OTRWS GIST OF PRIOR TUE FCST
HOLDS W/HIGHER POPS WARRANTED AT LEAST FOR WRN HALF IN PROXIMITY TO
TAIL END OF GREATER GLANCING HGT FALLS.

VIGOROUS DRY SLOT WRAPS EWD TUE NIGHT AND CUT POPS SUBSTANTIALLY
THROUGH EVENING AND ALTOGETHER LATE AS FNTL BNDRY IS CLRG THE EAST
COAST AT THAT TIME. RIDGING AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS XPCD IN WAKE
OF THIS SYS WED-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NARROWING MOISTURE CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH MVFR-LOW VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THIS TROUGH AXIS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING
AND SUBSIDENCE SCATTERS STRATOCU DECK OUT BY LATER IN THE DAY.
VORT MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHEARING TROUGH OVER SRN LAKE MI HAS
ALLOWED A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP WEST OF KFWA AS OF THIS
WRITING. MAY NEED TO ADD A VCSH MENTION AT TAF ISSUANCE...ALTHOUGH
NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACT FROM THIS ACTIVITY REGARDLESS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 240742
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
342 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH SATURDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FRACTURED MID LEVEL TROUGH/MOISTURE AXIS WITH LITTLE/NO REFLECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEAK SUPPORT FROM A VORT MAX
(SHOWING UP OVER SRN LAKE MI ON MORNING WATER VAPOR) AND THINNING
CORRIDOR OF 850 MB MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES INTO MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SLOW EWD PROGRESSION
OF A BKN/OVC LOW CLOUD DECK. MODEST HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF THIS WEAK TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO MIX/SCATTER OUT A
BIT LATER TODAY...WITH AFTN HIGHS EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER).

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL EMERGE FROM A
PAC NW/SW CANADA 150+ KT UPPER JET AND TRACK INTO ONTARIO AND THE
NRN LAKES BY LATER TONIGHT. THE FOLD OVER OF A MORE PRONOUNCED
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE OCT STANDARDS. COULD ALSO SEE ISO
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AND STRATUS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT GIVEN MODEST
925-850 MB WAA SURGE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE/PROBABILITY IN ANY
MEASURABLE PCPN REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A MENTIONABLE POP ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SYS OF NOTE FOR THIS PD LIES OUT NR 140W THIS MORNING AND WILL TURN
INLAND ALG THE WEST COAST EARLY SAT. DOWNSTREAM FLW AND PERTURBATION
STREAKING THROUGH JAMES BAY CONTS TO OSCILLATE IN SOME DEGREE AMG
MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH AS YET CONTS TO YIELD SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARD TO TEMPS MAINLY SUNDAY. 00Z SUITE AS A WHOLE MUCH MORE
SUBDUED W/BACKDOOR CDFNT SAT NIGHT AND INDICATE ROBUST LL WAA DVLPG
BY AFTN. THUS IN NOD OF GEFS AGREEMENT AND DECIDED UPWARD TREND SEE
NO REASON TO NOT BUMP SUN TEMPS UP HIGHER AGAIN.

W/PROGRESSIVE PATTN ALOFT IN PLACE WRN SYS QUICKLY AMPLIFIES NEWD
INTO CNTRL ONTARIO TUE AS TRAILING SHARP CDFNT BURSTS EAST. LL
THERMAL RIDGE AHD OF THIS FTR QUITE STG W/CORE OF 16-18C H85 TEMPS
NOSING INTO THE SRN LAKE MON. EVEN A CONSERVATIVE MIX DOWN FM H9
PORTENDS ADDNL UPWARD HEADROOM LIKELY AND SEEMS PRUDENT TO USE
WARMEST GUIDANCE BLEND PSBL. SIG LL MSTR/THETA-E SURGE WITHIN BROAD
LLJ W/WRN GOMEX ORIGINS FOLLOWS MON NIGHT/TUE AHD OF EWD SURGING
CDFNT. GIVEN FVRBL THETA-E RIDGING LT MON NIGHT AND MODEST MASS MSTR
FLUX NW THIRD ADDED A SLGT CHC POP FOR SHRA W/TSRA PSBL AS WHATS
LEFT OF PLAINS EML ADVTS OVERHEAD. OTRWS GIST OF PRIOR TUE FCST
HOLDS W/HIGHER POPS WARRANTED AT LEAST FOR WRN HALF IN PROXIMITY TO
TAIL END OF GREATER GLANCING HGT FALLS.

VIGOROUS DRY SLOT WRAPS EWD TUE NIGHT AND CUT POPS SUBSTANTIALLY
THROUGH EVENING AND ALTOGETHER LATE AS FNTL BNDRY IS CLRG THE EAST
COAST AT THAT TIME. RIDGING AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS XPCD IN WAKE
OF THIS SYS WED-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WEAK ELEVATED TROUGH/MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS IL WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
EAST INTO NRN IN THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO HIGH
MVFR-LOW VFR AROUND DAYBREAK AT SBN AND LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON AT FWA BEFORE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING LIKELY SCATTERS THIS
STRATOCU DECK OUT BY LATER IN THE DAY. DRY OTHERWISE WITH LIGHT
SSW WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 240456
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1256 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WITH SATURDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MINOR CHANGES... RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS DRY AIRMASS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL OFF THIS EVE DESPITE CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS. LOWERED TONIGHT`S MINS A CATEGORY. BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO THE WEST APPEARS TO BE HEADED NORTH OF OUR CWA BUT A FEW
SHOWERS DVLPG OVER NE IL SO MAINTAINED OUR POPS OVERNIGHT BUT
PUSHED BACK TIMING A FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BUT IN A
WEAKENING STATE. ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO ALSO BE IN A
DECAYING STATE WITH LITTLE TO NO REFLECTION OF IT BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR LOCAL AREA. HIRES GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON DECAYING BAND
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS QPF BEING SHOWN AT
BEST AND CONFINED TO WESTERN AREAS. STAYED WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE CENTRAL WHILE KEEPING POPS OUT OF EASTERN
THIRD OF CWA.

UPSTREAM CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
AREA OVERNIGHT AND LATEST TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THESE MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND EVEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED SKY COVER UP...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH POSSIBILITY OF MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED ONCE AGAIN
UNDERNEATH REMAINING FRONTAL INVERSION.

TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE WARMER WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE 40S
UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS WITH MID
60S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAY SEE HIGHS REMAIN
IN THE 50S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LARGELY ZONAL 150+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SEND A DECENT SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. OUR CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
THIS JET...LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERMAL TROUGH DOESN`T FULLY INFILTRATE
THE CWA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT SO AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY AROUND
60F ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST SYNOPTIC FORCING BYPASSES US TO THE
NORTH AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED...DID INTRODUCE A SILENT 10 POP FOR
THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIOD TO COVER THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE ALONG THE FRONT.

TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LONGWAVE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH. THIS WILL ADVECT A VERY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 16C. MAY NOT MIX QUITE THAT HIGH
GIVEN LOW SUN ANGLE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT LOW 70S
SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY WITH OUR NEXT SHOT OF RAINFALL.
GOOD HEIGHT FALLS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. INSTABILITY FIELDS STILL TOO MEAGER FOR THUNDER INCLUSION
BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TEMPORARILY DEAMPLIFIES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WEAK ELEVATED TROUGH/MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS IL WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
EAST INTO NRN IN THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO HIGH
MVFR-LOW VFR AROUND DAYBREAK AT SBN AND LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON AT FWA BEFORE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING LIKELY SCATTERS THIS
STRATOCU DECK OUT BY LATER IN THE DAY. DRY OTHERWISE WITH LIGHT
SSW WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 240456
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1256 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WITH SATURDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MINOR CHANGES... RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS DRY AIRMASS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL OFF THIS EVE DESPITE CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS. LOWERED TONIGHT`S MINS A CATEGORY. BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO THE WEST APPEARS TO BE HEADED NORTH OF OUR CWA BUT A FEW
SHOWERS DVLPG OVER NE IL SO MAINTAINED OUR POPS OVERNIGHT BUT
PUSHED BACK TIMING A FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BUT IN A
WEAKENING STATE. ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO ALSO BE IN A
DECAYING STATE WITH LITTLE TO NO REFLECTION OF IT BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR LOCAL AREA. HIRES GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON DECAYING BAND
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS QPF BEING SHOWN AT
BEST AND CONFINED TO WESTERN AREAS. STAYED WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE CENTRAL WHILE KEEPING POPS OUT OF EASTERN
THIRD OF CWA.

UPSTREAM CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
AREA OVERNIGHT AND LATEST TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THESE MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND EVEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED SKY COVER UP...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH POSSIBILITY OF MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED ONCE AGAIN
UNDERNEATH REMAINING FRONTAL INVERSION.

TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE WARMER WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE 40S
UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS WITH MID
60S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAY SEE HIGHS REMAIN
IN THE 50S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LARGELY ZONAL 150+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SEND A DECENT SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. OUR CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
THIS JET...LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERMAL TROUGH DOESN`T FULLY INFILTRATE
THE CWA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT SO AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY AROUND
60F ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST SYNOPTIC FORCING BYPASSES US TO THE
NORTH AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED...DID INTRODUCE A SILENT 10 POP FOR
THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIOD TO COVER THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE ALONG THE FRONT.

TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LONGWAVE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH. THIS WILL ADVECT A VERY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 16C. MAY NOT MIX QUITE THAT HIGH
GIVEN LOW SUN ANGLE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT LOW 70S
SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY WITH OUR NEXT SHOT OF RAINFALL.
GOOD HEIGHT FALLS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. INSTABILITY FIELDS STILL TOO MEAGER FOR THUNDER INCLUSION
BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TEMPORARILY DEAMPLIFIES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WEAK ELEVATED TROUGH/MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS IL WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
EAST INTO NRN IN THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO HIGH
MVFR-LOW VFR AROUND DAYBREAK AT SBN AND LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON AT FWA BEFORE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING LIKELY SCATTERS THIS
STRATOCU DECK OUT BY LATER IN THE DAY. DRY OTHERWISE WITH LIGHT
SSW WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 240159
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
959 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...
 BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO
THE 40S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MINOR CHANGES... RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS DRY AIRMASS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL OFF THIS EVE DESPITE CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS. LOWERED TONIGHT`S MINS A CATEGORY. BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO THE WEST APPEARS TO BE HEADED NORTH OF OUR CWA BUT A FEW
SHOWERS DVLPG OVER NE IL SO MAINTAINED OUR POPS OVERNIGHT BUT
PUSHED BACK TIMING A FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BUT IN A
WEAKENING STATE. ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO ALSO BE IN A
DECAYING STATE WITH LITTLE TO NO REFLECTION OF IT BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR LOCAL AREA. HIRES GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON DECAYING BAND
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS QPF BEING SHOWN AT
BEST AND CONFINED TO WESTERN AREAS. STAYED WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE CENTRAL WHILE KEEPING POPS OUT OF EASTERN
THIRD OF CWA.

UPSTREAM CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
AREA OVERNIGHT AND LATEST TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THESE MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND EVEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED SKY COVER UP...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH POSSIBILITY OF MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED ONCE AGAIN
UNDERNEATH REMAINING FRONTAL INVERSION.

TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE WARMER WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE 40S
UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS WITH MID
60S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAY SEE HIGHS REMAIN
IN THE 50S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LARGELY ZONAL 150+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SEND A DECENT SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. OUR CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
THIS JET...LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERMAL TROUGH DOESN`T FULLY INFILTRATE
THE CWA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT SO AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY AROUND
60F ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST SYNOPTIC FORCING BYPASSES US TO THE
NORTH AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED...DID INTRODUCE A SILENT 10 POP FOR
THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIOD TO COVER THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE ALONG THE FRONT.

TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LONGWAVE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH. THIS WILL ADVECT A VERY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 16C. MAY NOT MIX QUITE THAT HIGH
GIVEN LOW SUN ANGLE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT LOW 70S
SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY WITH OUR NEXT SHOT OF RAINFALL.
GOOD HEIGHT FALLS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. INSTABILITY FIELDS STILL TOO MEAGER FOR THUNDER INCLUSION
BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TEMPORARILY DEAMPLIFIES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

BAND OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WKNG TROF TO OUR WEST WAS
OVERSPREADING NRN INDIANA THIS EVE. MODELS SUGGEST A LOWERING
CLOUD TREND OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THIS TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY. LIGHT S-SW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SFC TROF DISSIPATES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 240159
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
959 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...
 BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO
THE 40S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MINOR CHANGES... RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS DRY AIRMASS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL OFF THIS EVE DESPITE CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS. LOWERED TONIGHT`S MINS A CATEGORY. BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO THE WEST APPEARS TO BE HEADED NORTH OF OUR CWA BUT A FEW
SHOWERS DVLPG OVER NE IL SO MAINTAINED OUR POPS OVERNIGHT BUT
PUSHED BACK TIMING A FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BUT IN A
WEAKENING STATE. ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO ALSO BE IN A
DECAYING STATE WITH LITTLE TO NO REFLECTION OF IT BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR LOCAL AREA. HIRES GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON DECAYING BAND
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS QPF BEING SHOWN AT
BEST AND CONFINED TO WESTERN AREAS. STAYED WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE CENTRAL WHILE KEEPING POPS OUT OF EASTERN
THIRD OF CWA.

UPSTREAM CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
AREA OVERNIGHT AND LATEST TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THESE MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND EVEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED SKY COVER UP...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH POSSIBILITY OF MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED ONCE AGAIN
UNDERNEATH REMAINING FRONTAL INVERSION.

TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE WARMER WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE 40S
UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS WITH MID
60S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAY SEE HIGHS REMAIN
IN THE 50S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LARGELY ZONAL 150+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SEND A DECENT SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. OUR CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
THIS JET...LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERMAL TROUGH DOESN`T FULLY INFILTRATE
THE CWA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT SO AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY AROUND
60F ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST SYNOPTIC FORCING BYPASSES US TO THE
NORTH AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED...DID INTRODUCE A SILENT 10 POP FOR
THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIOD TO COVER THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE ALONG THE FRONT.

TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LONGWAVE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH. THIS WILL ADVECT A VERY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 16C. MAY NOT MIX QUITE THAT HIGH
GIVEN LOW SUN ANGLE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT LOW 70S
SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY WITH OUR NEXT SHOT OF RAINFALL.
GOOD HEIGHT FALLS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. INSTABILITY FIELDS STILL TOO MEAGER FOR THUNDER INCLUSION
BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TEMPORARILY DEAMPLIFIES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

BAND OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WKNG TROF TO OUR WEST WAS
OVERSPREADING NRN INDIANA THIS EVE. MODELS SUGGEST A LOWERING
CLOUD TREND OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THIS TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY. LIGHT S-SW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SFC TROF DISSIPATES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 232253
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
653 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...
 BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO
THE 40S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BUT IN A
WEAKENING STATE. ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO ALSO BE IN A
DECAYING STATE WITH LITTLE TO NO REFLECTION OF IT BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR LOCAL AREA. HIRES GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON DECAYING BAND
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS QPF BEING SHOWN AT
BEST AND CONFINED TO WESTERN AREAS. STAYED WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE CENTRAL WHILE KEEPING POPS OUT OF EASTERN
THIRD OF CWA.

UPSTREAM CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
AREA OVERNIGHT AND LATEST TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THESE MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND EVEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED SKY COVER UP...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH POSSIBILITY OF MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED ONCE AGAIN
UNDERNEATH REMAINING FRONTAL INVERSION.

TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE WARMER WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE 40S
UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS WITH MID
60S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAY SEE HIGHS REMAIN
IN THE 50S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LARGELY ZONAL 150+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SEND A DECENT SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. OUR CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
THIS JET...LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERMAL TROUGH DOESN`T FULLY INFILTRATE
THE CWA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT SO AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY AROUND
60F ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST SYNOPTIC FORCING BYPASSES US TO THE
NORTH AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED...DID INTRODUCE A SILENT 10 POP FOR
THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIOD TO COVER THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE ALONG THE FRONT.

TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LONGWAVE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH. THIS WILL ADVECT A VERY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 16C. MAY NOT MIX QUITE THAT HIGH
GIVEN LOW SUN ANGLE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT LOW 70S
SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY WITH OUR NEXT SHOT OF RAINFALL.
GOOD HEIGHT FALLS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. INSTABILITY FIELDS STILL TOO MEAGER FOR THUNDER INCLUSION
BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TEMPORARILY DEAMPLIFIES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

BAND OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WKNG TROF TO OUR WEST WAS
OVERSPREADING NRN INDIANA THIS EVE. MODELS SUGGEST A LOWERING
CLOUD TREND OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THIS TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY. LIGHT S-SW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SFC TROF DISSIPATES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 231901
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
301 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
BRING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE TONIGHT
BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BUT IN A
WEAKENING STATE. ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO ALSO BE IN A
DECAYING STATE WITH LITTLE TO NO REFLECTION OF IT BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR LOCAL AREA. HIRES GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON DECAYING BAND
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS QPF BEING SHOWN AT
BEST AND CONFINED TO WESTERN AREAS. STAYED WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE CENTRAL WHILE KEEPING POPS OUT OF EASTERN
THIRD OF CWA.

UPSTREAM CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
AREA OVERNIGHT AND LATEST TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THESE MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND EVEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED SKY COVER UP...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH POSSIBILITY OF MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED ONCE AGAIN
UNDERNEATH REMAINING FRONTAL INVERSION.

TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE WARMER WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE 40S
UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS WITH MID
60S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAY SEE HIGHS REMAIN
IN THE 50S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LARGELY ZONAL 150+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SEND A DECENT SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. OUR CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
THIS JET...LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERMAL TROUGH DOESN`T FULLY INFILTRATE
THE CWA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT SO AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY AROUND
60F ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST SYNOPTIC FORCING BYPASSES US TO THE
NORTH AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED...DID INTRODUCE A SILENT 10 POP FOR
THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIOD TO COVER THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE ALONG THE FRONT.

TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LONGWAVE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH. THIS WILL ADVECT A VERY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 16C. MAY NOT MIX QUITE THAT HIGH
GIVEN LOW SUN ANGLE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT LOW 70S
SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY WITH OUR NEXT SHOT OF RAINFALL.
GOOD HEIGHT FALLS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. INSTABILITY FIELDS STILL TOO MEAGER FOR THUNDER INCLUSION
BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TEMPORARILY DEAMPLIFIES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE. SATELLITE SHOWS AREA OF
CLOUDS UPSTREAM APPROACHING. THERE IS AN AREA OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CIGS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD. APPROACHING WAVE AND
WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. NOT
CONFIDENT THE LOWER CIGS WILL REACH TAF SITES GIVEN EXPECTED
FRONTOLYSIS. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A MOISTENING IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSBN. TRAPPED CIGS WITH
REMANT BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO FAVORED THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME MVFR CIGS AT KSBN FOR NOW BUT LEFT KFWA VFR. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR MORE DETAIL IN
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 231901
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
301 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
BRING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE TONIGHT
BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BUT IN A
WEAKENING STATE. ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO ALSO BE IN A
DECAYING STATE WITH LITTLE TO NO REFLECTION OF IT BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR LOCAL AREA. HIRES GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON DECAYING BAND
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS QPF BEING SHOWN AT
BEST AND CONFINED TO WESTERN AREAS. STAYED WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE CENTRAL WHILE KEEPING POPS OUT OF EASTERN
THIRD OF CWA.

UPSTREAM CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
AREA OVERNIGHT AND LATEST TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THESE MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND EVEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED SKY COVER UP...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH POSSIBILITY OF MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED ONCE AGAIN
UNDERNEATH REMAINING FRONTAL INVERSION.

TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE WARMER WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE 40S
UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS WITH MID
60S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAY SEE HIGHS REMAIN
IN THE 50S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LARGELY ZONAL 150+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SEND A DECENT SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. OUR CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
THIS JET...LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERMAL TROUGH DOESN`T FULLY INFILTRATE
THE CWA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT SO AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY AROUND
60F ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST SYNOPTIC FORCING BYPASSES US TO THE
NORTH AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED...DID INTRODUCE A SILENT 10 POP FOR
THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY PERIOD TO COVER THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE ALONG THE FRONT.

TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LONGWAVE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH. THIS WILL ADVECT A VERY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 16C. MAY NOT MIX QUITE THAT HIGH
GIVEN LOW SUN ANGLE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT LOW 70S
SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY WITH OUR NEXT SHOT OF RAINFALL.
GOOD HEIGHT FALLS/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. INSTABILITY FIELDS STILL TOO MEAGER FOR THUNDER INCLUSION
BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TEMPORARILY DEAMPLIFIES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE. SATELLITE SHOWS AREA OF
CLOUDS UPSTREAM APPROACHING. THERE IS AN AREA OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CIGS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD. APPROACHING WAVE AND
WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. NOT
CONFIDENT THE LOWER CIGS WILL REACH TAF SITES GIVEN EXPECTED
FRONTOLYSIS. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A MOISTENING IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSBN. TRAPPED CIGS WITH
REMANT BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO FAVORED THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME MVFR CIGS AT KSBN FOR NOW BUT LEFT KFWA VFR. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR MORE DETAIL IN
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 231746
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
146 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
BRING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE TONIGHT
BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOG WAS BECOMING RATHER EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA AS CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WAS ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. ENOUGH LOCATIONS
HAVE DROPPED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN NE QUARTER OR SO TO
WARRANT HOISTING DENSE FOG ADVISORY. MAY NEED TO EXPAND WITH
TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW. ONCE ANY FOG BURNS OFF A
PLEASANT DAY WILL BE ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE MAIN AXIS TO EXTEND FROM ONTARIO TO CENTRAL OHIO
BY 00Z FRI. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WERE
RESPONSIBLE FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXTENDING FROM
THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA SOUTH TO IOWA AND NEBRASKA. MAJORITY OF
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THIS EAST BUT EVENTUALLY SHEAR OUT THE
WAVE AS DEEP UPR LOW OFF THE EAST COAST BRINGS THE FLOW TO A HALT
AND KEEP DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD THIS EVENING AND GAVE MORE TEMPORAL DETAIL.
WAS TEMPTED TO DROP CHANCES TO SLGT CHC IN THE EVENING IN FAR WEST
BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST AT LEAST A SMALL WINDOW OF LIGHT
PRECIP BEING POSSIBLE. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S COURTESY OF
MODEST WAA AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTN OPENS INTO ZONAL FLW REGIME THIS PD ACRS THE CONUS WHICH
RESULTS IN A VIGOROUS MODERATION IN TEMPS ESP IN LTR PDS. TO START
POTENT JET STREAM AND ASSOCD SW DISTURBANCE DRIVING EWD INTO BC OFF
THE NEPAC WILL CREST FLAT WRN US RIDGE FRI AND DIG SEWD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WK CDFNT TO BACKDOOR
INTO THE AREA ON SUN W/MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS XPCD. HWVR LINGERING CP
AIRMASS VOID OF MSTR AND XPC NO SENSIBLE WX TO RESULT AS PARENT WAVE
TRANSLATES THROUGH ONTARIO LT FRI NIGHT/SAT AM.

OTRWS NEW TROUGHING OUT WEST AND INCREASING SWRLY FLW ALOFT LOOKS TO
BRING A SHOT OR RAIN LT TUE. RELIED ON A BLEND OF POP GUIDANCE WHICH
FIT BTR W/BOTH CONTINUITY AND SURROUNDING OFFICES TUE-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE. SATELLITE SHOWS AREA OF
CLOUDS UPSTREAM APPROACHING. THERE IS AN AREA OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CIGS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD. APPROACHING WAVE AND
WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. NOT
CONFIDENT THE LOWER CIGS WILL REACH TAF SITES GIVEN EXPECTED
FRONTOLYSIS. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A MOISTENING IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSBN. TRAPPED CIGS WITH
REMANT BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO FAVORED THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME MVFR CIGS AT KSBN FOR NOW BUT LEFT KFWA VFR. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR MORE DETAIL IN
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 231746
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
146 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
BRING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE TONIGHT
BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOG WAS BECOMING RATHER EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA AS CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WAS ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. ENOUGH LOCATIONS
HAVE DROPPED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN NE QUARTER OR SO TO
WARRANT HOISTING DENSE FOG ADVISORY. MAY NEED TO EXPAND WITH
TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW. ONCE ANY FOG BURNS OFF A
PLEASANT DAY WILL BE ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE MAIN AXIS TO EXTEND FROM ONTARIO TO CENTRAL OHIO
BY 00Z FRI. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WERE
RESPONSIBLE FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXTENDING FROM
THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA SOUTH TO IOWA AND NEBRASKA. MAJORITY OF
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THIS EAST BUT EVENTUALLY SHEAR OUT THE
WAVE AS DEEP UPR LOW OFF THE EAST COAST BRINGS THE FLOW TO A HALT
AND KEEP DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD THIS EVENING AND GAVE MORE TEMPORAL DETAIL.
WAS TEMPTED TO DROP CHANCES TO SLGT CHC IN THE EVENING IN FAR WEST
BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST AT LEAST A SMALL WINDOW OF LIGHT
PRECIP BEING POSSIBLE. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S COURTESY OF
MODEST WAA AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTN OPENS INTO ZONAL FLW REGIME THIS PD ACRS THE CONUS WHICH
RESULTS IN A VIGOROUS MODERATION IN TEMPS ESP IN LTR PDS. TO START
POTENT JET STREAM AND ASSOCD SW DISTURBANCE DRIVING EWD INTO BC OFF
THE NEPAC WILL CREST FLAT WRN US RIDGE FRI AND DIG SEWD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WK CDFNT TO BACKDOOR
INTO THE AREA ON SUN W/MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS XPCD. HWVR LINGERING CP
AIRMASS VOID OF MSTR AND XPC NO SENSIBLE WX TO RESULT AS PARENT WAVE
TRANSLATES THROUGH ONTARIO LT FRI NIGHT/SAT AM.

OTRWS NEW TROUGHING OUT WEST AND INCREASING SWRLY FLW ALOFT LOOKS TO
BRING A SHOT OR RAIN LT TUE. RELIED ON A BLEND OF POP GUIDANCE WHICH
FIT BTR W/BOTH CONTINUITY AND SURROUNDING OFFICES TUE-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE. SATELLITE SHOWS AREA OF
CLOUDS UPSTREAM APPROACHING. THERE IS AN AREA OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CIGS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD. APPROACHING WAVE AND
WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. NOT
CONFIDENT THE LOWER CIGS WILL REACH TAF SITES GIVEN EXPECTED
FRONTOLYSIS. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A MOISTENING IN
THE LOWER LEVELS AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSBN. TRAPPED CIGS WITH
REMANT BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO FAVORED THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME MVFR CIGS AT KSBN FOR NOW BUT LEFT KFWA VFR. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR MORE DETAIL IN
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 230946
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED LONG TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
545 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN INDIANA THIS EVENING. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOG WAS BECOMING RATHER EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA AS CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WAS ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. ENOUGH LOCATIONS
HAVE DROPPED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN NE QUARTER OR SO TO
WARRANT HOISTING DENSE FOG ADVISORY. MAY NEED TO EXPAND WITH
TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW. ONCE ANY FOG BURNS OFF A
PLEASANT DAY WILL BE ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE MAIN AXIS TO EXTEND FROM ONTARIO TO CENTRAL OHIO
BY 00Z FRI. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WERE
RESPONSIBLE FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXTENDING FROM
THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA SOUTH TO IOWA AND NEBRASKA. MAJORITY OF
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THIS EAST BUT EVENTUALLY SHEAR OUT THE
WAVE AS DEEP UPR LOW OFF THE EAST COAST BRINGS THE FLOW TO A HALT
AND KEEP DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD THIS EVENING AND GAVE MORE TEMPORAL DETAIL.
WAS TEMPTED TO DROP CHANCES TO SLGT CHC IN THE EVENING IN FAR WEST
BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST AT LEAST A SMALL WINDOW OF LIGHT
PRECIP BEING POSSIBLE. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S COURTESY OF
MODEST WAA AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTN OPENS INTO ZONAL FLW REGIME THIS PD ACRS THE CONUS WHICH
RESULTS IN A VIGOROUS MODERATION IN TEMPS ESP IN LTR PDS. TO START
POTENT JET STREAM AND ASSOCD SW DISTURBANCE DRIVING EWD INTO BC OFF
THE NEPAC WILL CREST FLAT WRN US RIDGE FRI AND DIG SEWD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WK CDFNT TO BACKDOOR
INTO THE AREA ON SUN W/MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS XPCD. HWVR LINGERING CP
AIRMASS VOID OF MSTR AND XPC NO SENSIBLE WX TO RESULT AS PARENT WAVE
TRANSLATES THROUGH ONTARIO LT FRI NIGHT/SAT AM.

OTRWS NEW TROUGHING OUT WEST AND INCREASING SWRLY FLW ALOFT LOOKS TO
BRING A SHOT OR RAIN LT TUE. RELIED ON A BLEND OF POP GUIDANCE WHICH
FIT BTR W/BOTH CONTINUITY AND SURROUNDING OFFICES TUE-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

STRATOCU DECK HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLEARING
COMBINED WITH MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AROUND KFWA WHICH
HASN`T HAD A CHANCE TO MIX OUT ALL THE MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS
DUE TO CLOUDS. HAVE HELD WITH MVFR FOR NOW AT BOTH SITES...BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME WIDELY VARIABLE VSBYS AT KFWA THAT COULD
IMPINGE ON IFR. WHILE THIS MAY OCCUR...ANY FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW.

SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS
00Z/FRI WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER AT
KSBN. NOT WORTHY OF ANY MENTION AT THIS POINT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ006>009.

MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ079>081.

OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
     004-005.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA











000
FXUS63 KIWX 230946
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED LONG TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
545 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN INDIANA THIS EVENING. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOG WAS BECOMING RATHER EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA AS CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WAS ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. ENOUGH LOCATIONS
HAVE DROPPED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN NE QUARTER OR SO TO
WARRANT HOISTING DENSE FOG ADVISORY. MAY NEED TO EXPAND WITH
TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW. ONCE ANY FOG BURNS OFF A
PLEASANT DAY WILL BE ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE MAIN AXIS TO EXTEND FROM ONTARIO TO CENTRAL OHIO
BY 00Z FRI. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WERE
RESPONSIBLE FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXTENDING FROM
THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA SOUTH TO IOWA AND NEBRASKA. MAJORITY OF
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THIS EAST BUT EVENTUALLY SHEAR OUT THE
WAVE AS DEEP UPR LOW OFF THE EAST COAST BRINGS THE FLOW TO A HALT
AND KEEP DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD THIS EVENING AND GAVE MORE TEMPORAL DETAIL.
WAS TEMPTED TO DROP CHANCES TO SLGT CHC IN THE EVENING IN FAR WEST
BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST AT LEAST A SMALL WINDOW OF LIGHT
PRECIP BEING POSSIBLE. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S COURTESY OF
MODEST WAA AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PATTN OPENS INTO ZONAL FLW REGIME THIS PD ACRS THE CONUS WHICH
RESULTS IN A VIGOROUS MODERATION IN TEMPS ESP IN LTR PDS. TO START
POTENT JET STREAM AND ASSOCD SW DISTURBANCE DRIVING EWD INTO BC OFF
THE NEPAC WILL CREST FLAT WRN US RIDGE FRI AND DIG SEWD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WK CDFNT TO BACKDOOR
INTO THE AREA ON SUN W/MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS XPCD. HWVR LINGERING CP
AIRMASS VOID OF MSTR AND XPC NO SENSIBLE WX TO RESULT AS PARENT WAVE
TRANSLATES THROUGH ONTARIO LT FRI NIGHT/SAT AM.

OTRWS NEW TROUGHING OUT WEST AND INCREASING SWRLY FLW ALOFT LOOKS TO
BRING A SHOT OR RAIN LT TUE. RELIED ON A BLEND OF POP GUIDANCE WHICH
FIT BTR W/BOTH CONTINUITY AND SURROUNDING OFFICES TUE-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

STRATOCU DECK HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLEARING
COMBINED WITH MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AROUND KFWA WHICH
HASN`T HAD A CHANCE TO MIX OUT ALL THE MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS
DUE TO CLOUDS. HAVE HELD WITH MVFR FOR NOW AT BOTH SITES...BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME WIDELY VARIABLE VSBYS AT KFWA THAT COULD
IMPINGE ON IFR. WHILE THIS MAY OCCUR...ANY FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW.

SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS
00Z/FRI WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER AT
KSBN. NOT WORTHY OF ANY MENTION AT THIS POINT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ006>009.

MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ079>081.

OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
     004-005.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA











000
FXUS63 KIWX 230811
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN INDIANA THIS EVENING. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOG WAS BECOMING RATHER EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA AS CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WAS ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. ENOUGH LOCATIONS
HAVE DROPPED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN NE QUARTER OR SO TO
WARRANT HOISTING DENSE FOG ADVISORY. MAY NEED TO EXPAND WITH
TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW. ONCE ANY FOG BURNS OFF A
PLEASANT DAY WILL BE ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE MAIN AXIS TO EXTEND FROM ONTARIO TO CENTRAL OHIO
BY 00Z FRI. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WERE
RESPONSIBLE FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXTENDING FROM
THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA SOUTH TO IOWA AND NEBRASKA. MAJORITY OF
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THIS EAST BUT EVENTUALLY SHEAR OUT THE
WAVE AS DEEP UPR LOW OFF THE EAST COAST BRINGS THE FLOW TO A HALT
AND KEEP DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD THIS EVENING AND GAVE MORE TEMPORAL DETAIL.
WAS TEMPTED TO DROP CHANCES TO SLGT CHC IN THE EVENING IN FAR WEST
BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST AT LEAST A SMALL WINDOW OF LIGHT
PRECIP BEING POSSIBLE. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S COURTESY OF
MODEST WAA AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WAS LAGGING BEHIND LOWER LEVELS...WITH QUESTIONABLE
SATURATION THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER. REFINED THE TIMING OF THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL EXPECTATIONS. VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED  SATURATION...
WEAK LIFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE. A BACK DOOR TYPE OF FRONT SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR OR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND
LIMITED LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. LOWERED HIGHS SUNDAY INTO
THE 50S NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT. THERE WAS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FAVOR THE GFS WHICH HAS
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN ABOUT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

STRATOCU DECK HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLEARING
COMBINED WITH MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AROUND KFWA WHICH
HASN`T HAD A CHANCE TO MIX OUT ALL THE MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS
DUE TO CLOUDS. HAVE HELD WITH MVFR FOR NOW AT BOTH SITES...BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME WIDELY VARIABLE VSBYS AT KFWA THAT COULD
IMPINGE ON IFR. WHILE THIS MAY OCCUR...ANY FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW.

SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS
00Z/FRI WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER AT
KSBN. NOT WORTHY OF ANY MENTION AT THIS POINT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ006>009.

MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ079>081.

OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
     004-005.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 230811
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN INDIANA THIS EVENING. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOG WAS BECOMING RATHER EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA AS CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WAS ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. ENOUGH LOCATIONS
HAVE DROPPED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN NE QUARTER OR SO TO
WARRANT HOISTING DENSE FOG ADVISORY. MAY NEED TO EXPAND WITH
TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW. ONCE ANY FOG BURNS OFF A
PLEASANT DAY WILL BE ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE MAIN AXIS TO EXTEND FROM ONTARIO TO CENTRAL OHIO
BY 00Z FRI. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WERE
RESPONSIBLE FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXTENDING FROM
THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA SOUTH TO IOWA AND NEBRASKA. MAJORITY OF
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THIS EAST BUT EVENTUALLY SHEAR OUT THE
WAVE AS DEEP UPR LOW OFF THE EAST COAST BRINGS THE FLOW TO A HALT
AND KEEP DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD THIS EVENING AND GAVE MORE TEMPORAL DETAIL.
WAS TEMPTED TO DROP CHANCES TO SLGT CHC IN THE EVENING IN FAR WEST
BUT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST AT LEAST A SMALL WINDOW OF LIGHT
PRECIP BEING POSSIBLE. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S COURTESY OF
MODEST WAA AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WAS LAGGING BEHIND LOWER LEVELS...WITH QUESTIONABLE
SATURATION THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER. REFINED THE TIMING OF THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL EXPECTATIONS. VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED  SATURATION...
WEAK LIFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE. A BACK DOOR TYPE OF FRONT SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR OR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND
LIMITED LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. LOWERED HIGHS SUNDAY INTO
THE 50S NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT. THERE WAS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FAVOR THE GFS WHICH HAS
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN ABOUT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

STRATOCU DECK HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLEARING
COMBINED WITH MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AROUND KFWA WHICH
HASN`T HAD A CHANCE TO MIX OUT ALL THE MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS
DUE TO CLOUDS. HAVE HELD WITH MVFR FOR NOW AT BOTH SITES...BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME WIDELY VARIABLE VSBYS AT KFWA THAT COULD
IMPINGE ON IFR. WHILE THIS MAY OCCUR...ANY FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW.

SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS
00Z/FRI WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER AT
KSBN. NOT WORTHY OF ANY MENTION AT THIS POINT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ006>009.

MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ079>081.

OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
     004-005.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 230546
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
146 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. CLOUDS OVER EASTERN AREAS WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THIS EVENING LEAVING BEHIND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS...A FEW WEATHER ISSUES DO PERSIST WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY WITH STRATUS DECK STILL
LINGERING OVER EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 18Z. SOME SLOW
EROSION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER WESTERN EDGE AND SOME CLEARING
APPROACHING FROM NORTHEAST PER LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS.
MODELS REMAIN RATHER PERSISTENT THAT AREA OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING PER HRRR RH AND TOTAL CLOUD COVER
PLOTS ALONG WITH LATEST RAP13 RH FIELDS IN THE 900-850MB LAYERS.
CONCERN THOUGH LIES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
A RATHER STOUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION. 925-850MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS
OVER EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH 500MB
RIDGE AXIS. TYPICALLY STRATUS EROSION DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL PASSAGE
OF THESE FEATURES. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY AIRMASS
SITTING ATOP VERY THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CLOUD DECK
AS ADVERTISED. HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THE EROSION IN THE SKY COVER
GRIDS BUT DID KEEP THE OPTIMISTIC ATTITUDE IN ORDER TO MATCH
SURROUNDING SITES FOR A MORE CONSISTENT LOOKING FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES TO BE IMPACTED SIGNIFICANTLY IF THESE CLOUDS DO HOLD ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR NOW STAYED WITH PERSISTENCE AND OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST
WEEK...15 DAYS AND 30 DAYS SO WILL RIDE WITH THAT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A VERY MOIST SHALLOW LAYER NEAR SURFACE UNDER
STRONG INVERSION WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP COLUMN. THIS USUALLY AN IDEAL SETUP FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SO
ADDED PATCHY FOG TO GRIDS.

EXPECT THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAWBLEND
GUIDANCE PERFORMING BEST WITH MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WAS LAGGING BEHIND LOWER LEVELS...WITH QUESTIONABLE
SATURATION THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER. REFINED THE TIMING OF THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL EXPECTATIONS. VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED  SATURATION...
WEAK LIFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE. A BACK DOOR TYPE OF FRONT SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR OR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND
LIMITED LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. LOWERED HIGHS SUNDAY INTO
THE 50S NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT. THERE WAS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FAVOR THE GFS WHICH HAS
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN ABOUT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

STRATOCU DECK HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLEARING
COMBINED WITH MOIST CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AROND KFWA WHICH
HASN`T HAD A CHANCE TO MIX OUT ALL THE MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS
DUE TO CLOUDS. HAVE HELD WITH MVFR FOR NOW AT BOTH SITES...BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME WIDELY VARIABLE VSBYS AT KFWA THAT COULD
IMPINGE ON IFR. WHILE THIS MAY OCCUR...ANY FOG SHOULD BE SHALLOW.

SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS
00Z/FRI WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER AT
KSBN. NOT WORTHY OF ANY MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 222331
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
731 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. CLOUDS OVER EASTERN AREAS WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THIS EVENING LEAVING BEHIND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS...A FEW WEATHER ISSUES DO PERSIST WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY WITH STRATUS DECK STILL
LINGERING OVER EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 18Z. SOME SLOW
EROSION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER WESTERN EDGE AND SOME CLEARING
APPROACHING FROM NORTHEAST PER LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS.
MODELS REMAIN RATHER PERSISTENT THAT AREA OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING PER HRRR RH AND TOTAL CLOUD COVER
PLOTS ALONG WITH LATEST RAP13 RH FIELDS IN THE 900-850MB LAYERS.
CONCERN THOUGH LIES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
A RATHER STOUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION. 925-850MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS
OVER EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH 500MB
RIDGE AXIS. TYPICALLY STRATUS EROSION DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL PASSAGE
OF THESE FEATURES. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY AIRMASS
SITTING ATOP VERY THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CLOUD DECK
AS ADVERTISED. HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THE EROSION IN THE SKY COVER
GRIDS BUT DID KEEP THE OPTIMISTIC ATTITUDE IN ORDER TO MATCH
SURROUNDING SITES FOR A MORE CONSISTENT LOOKING FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES TO BE IMPACTED SIGNIFICANTLY IF THESE CLOUDS DO HOLD ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR NOW STAYED WITH PERSISTENCE AND OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST
WEEK...15 DAYS AND 30 DAYS SO WILL RIDE WITH THAT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A VERY MOIST SHALLOW LAYER NEAR SURFACE UNDER
STRONG INVERSION WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP COLUMN. THIS USUALLY AN IDEAL SETUP FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SO
ADDED PATCHY FOG TO GRIDS.

EXPECT THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAWBLEND
GUIDANCE PERFORMING BEST WITH MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WAS LAGGING BEHIND LOWER LEVELS...WITH QUESTIONABLE
SATURATION THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER. REFINED THE TIMING OF THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL EXPECTATIONS. VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED  SATURATION...
WEAK LIFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE. A BACK DOOR TYPE OF FRONT SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR OR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND
LIMITED LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. LOWERED HIGHS SUNDAY INTO
THE 50S NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT. THERE WAS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FAVOR THE GFS WHICH HAS
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN ABOUT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOW CLOUD DECK ALONG OH/IN BORDER EXPECTED TO CONT TO ERODE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER MI MOVES SLOWLY SE. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THU MORNING. MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW SO
ONLY MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. LIGHT E-NE
WINDS SHOULD VEER TO S-SW THU AS RIDGE MOVES SE TO THE OH VALLEY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY PERHAPS SUPPORTING SCT FAIR WX CU.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 221955
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
355 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. CLOUDS OVER EASTERN AREAS WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THIS EVENING LEAVING BEHIND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS...A FEW WEATHER ISSUES DO PERSIST WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY WITH STRATUS DECK STILL
LINGERING OVER EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 18Z. SOME SLOW
EROSION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER WESTERN EDGE AND SOME CLEARING
APPROACHING FROM NORTHEAST PER LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS.
MODELS REMAIN RATHER PERSISTENT THAT AREA OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING PER HRRR RH AND TOTAL CLOUD COVER
PLOTS ALONG WITH LATEST RAP13 RH FIELDS IN THE 900-850MB LAYERS.
CONCERN THOUGH LIES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
A RATHER STOUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION. 925-850MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS
OVER EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH 500MB
RIDGE AXIS. TYPICALLY STRATUS EROSION DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL PASSAGE
OF THESE FEATURES. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY AIRMASS
SITTING ATOP VERY THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CLOUD DECK
AS ADVERTISED. HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THE EROSION IN THE SKY COVER
GRIDS BUT DID KEEP THE OPTIMISTIC ATTITUDE IN ORDER TO MATCH
SURROUNDING SITES FOR A MORE CONSISTENT LOOKING FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES TO BE IMPACTED SIGNIFICANTLY IF THESE CLOUDS DO HOLD ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR NOW STAYED WITH PERSISTENCE AND OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST
WEEK...15 DAYS AND 30 DAYS SO WILL RIDE WITH THAT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A VERY MOIST SHALLOW LAYER NEAR SURFACE UNDER
STRONG INVERSION WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP COLUMN. THIS USUALLY AN IDEAL SETUP FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SO
ADDED PATCHY FOG TO GRIDS.

EXPECT THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAWBLEND
GUIDANCE PERFORMING BEST WITH MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WAS LAGGING BEHIND LOWER LEVELS...WITH QUESTIONABLE
SATURATION THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER. REFINED THE TIMING OF THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL EXPECTATIONS. VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED  SATURATION...
WEAK LIFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE. A BACK DOOR TYPE OF FRONT SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR OR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND
LIMITED LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. LOWERED HIGHS SUNDAY INTO
THE 50S NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT. THERE WAS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FAVOR THE GFS WHICH HAS
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN ABOUT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

KSBN EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT SOME MVFR BR
POSSIBLE LATE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CROSS OVER TEMPS BEING REACHED.
KFWA REMAINS ON EDGE OF SLOW ERODING STRATUS. MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW FOG
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTENING LOW LEVELS...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
AIR ALOFT. THIS COULD TURN INTO REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS BUT
EXPECTING THE DRY AIR ALOFT TO LIMIT FORMATION TO NEAR SURFACE AND
THUS FOG.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 220758
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
357 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW...CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA...WILL CONTINUE EAST
SOUTHEAST REACHING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 12Z WEDS AND THEN
FURTHER INTENSIFYING OFF THE EAST COAST. WHILE ANY RAIN WILL STAY
AWAY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS AND ALLOW
WINDS TO CALM. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE
WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

PATTN BREAKDOWN TO ZONAL FLW ALOFT XPCD THIS PD. SHRT AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ACRS THE MS VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL DRIVE EWD AHD OF EWD
EJECTING SW TROUGH ACRS SRN CANADA WHICH WILL RESULT IN STEADILY
MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH TUE. SFC CDFNT IN ASSOCN/W CANADIAN WAVE
WILL ESSENTIALLY WASH OUT W/EWD EXTEND ON THU AS PARENT WAVE SHEARS
OUT THROUGH JAMES BAY. MSTR RTN NON-EXISTENT AS LL ANTICYCLONE
PERSISTS ACRS THE GOMEX AND SUSPECT EVEN SLGT CHC POPS THU NIGHT
WILL BUST.

HWVR NEW SYS ROLLING IN OFF THE EPAC THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO DIG SEWD
THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS EARLY NXT WEEK AND THEN EJECT OUT THROUGH THE
SRN LAKES LT TUE. DVLPMNT OF BROAD SWRLY FLW WITHIN RENEWED CONUS
AMPLIFIED PATTN AND DY7 TIMING WOULD PORTEND A RTN TO EQUILIBRIUM
ACRS THE GOMEX WHICH WOULD FOSTER A MORE SIG LL MSTR/THETA-E RTN
INTO THE OH VALLEY. WILL CAUTIOUSLY INCREMENT POPS A BIT HIGHER.

OTRWS TEMPS RTNG TO ABV NORMAL BY FRI AND CONTG THROUGH TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO KFWA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
RUC MODEL SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS STILL UPSTREAM IN
EASTERN MI TO POSSIBLY ROTATE BACK INTO KFWA OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST OTHERWISE SO WILL KEEP WITH CLEARING. NO
FLIGHT ISSUES AT KSBN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SAME BEING TRUE
AT KFWA FOR SURE AFTER 15Z WEDS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO POSE NO ISSUE. LIGHT NE FLOW WILL PERSIST.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 220539
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
139 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S... WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SECONDARY PUSH OF CAA NOW WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
MORNING`S SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH. REGIONAL
LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY VEERED TO A MORE NNE DIRECTION...
ADVECTING COOL/DRY AIR INTO THE AREA AND LEADING TO AN UNFAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN OUR CWA. MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
ALSO BEGINNING TO RISE AS HIGH AMPLITUDE/SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGE
FOLDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED AVA WILL GENERATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF A DECENT SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
MAY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OFF OF HURON IN OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY SLIM AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.
CAA HAS KEPT A LID ON AFTERNOON TEMPS AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
TAKE A SIMILAR DIP. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH A LIGHT NE WIND ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S. CLOUDS LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE EAST AND WILL
HOLD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THERE. GROWING SEASON HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE CWA SO NO HEADLINES WARRANTED. STRATOCU WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN EVEN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SOME MODERATION OF THERMAL PROFILES DESPITE
WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW. INHERITED FORECAST OF MID 50S IS IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500/300 MB LAYER WILL BE WANING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN LIGHT OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE ONGOING GRIDS/FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER
WEST AREAS GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP SATURATION AND WEAK LIFT PER 305K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN ECMWF AND
GFS 850 MB TEMPS 13C TO 16C...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT
LEAST AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY.  THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. GUT FEELING IS RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TUESDAY GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...FRONTAL LIFT AND UPPER
LEVEL JET SUPPORT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO KFWA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
RUC MODEL SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS STILL UPSTREAM IN
EASTERN MI TO POSSIBLY ROTATE BACK INTO KFWA OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST OTHERWISE SO WILL KEEP WITH CLEARING. NO
FLIGHT ISSUES AT KSBN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SAME BEING TRUE
AT KFWA FOR SURE AFTER 15Z WEDS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO POSE NO ISSUE. LIGHT NE FLOW WILL PERSIST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 220539
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
139 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S... WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SECONDARY PUSH OF CAA NOW WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
MORNING`S SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH. REGIONAL
LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY VEERED TO A MORE NNE DIRECTION...
ADVECTING COOL/DRY AIR INTO THE AREA AND LEADING TO AN UNFAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN OUR CWA. MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
ALSO BEGINNING TO RISE AS HIGH AMPLITUDE/SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGE
FOLDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED AVA WILL GENERATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF A DECENT SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
MAY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OFF OF HURON IN OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY SLIM AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.
CAA HAS KEPT A LID ON AFTERNOON TEMPS AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
TAKE A SIMILAR DIP. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH A LIGHT NE WIND ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S. CLOUDS LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE EAST AND WILL
HOLD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THERE. GROWING SEASON HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE CWA SO NO HEADLINES WARRANTED. STRATOCU WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN EVEN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SOME MODERATION OF THERMAL PROFILES DESPITE
WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW. INHERITED FORECAST OF MID 50S IS IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500/300 MB LAYER WILL BE WANING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN LIGHT OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE ONGOING GRIDS/FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER
WEST AREAS GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP SATURATION AND WEAK LIFT PER 305K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN ECMWF AND
GFS 850 MB TEMPS 13C TO 16C...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT
LEAST AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY.  THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. GUT FEELING IS RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TUESDAY GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...FRONTAL LIFT AND UPPER
LEVEL JET SUPPORT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO KFWA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
RUC MODEL SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS STILL UPSTREAM IN
EASTERN MI TO POSSIBLY ROTATE BACK INTO KFWA OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST OTHERWISE SO WILL KEEP WITH CLEARING. NO
FLIGHT ISSUES AT KSBN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SAME BEING TRUE
AT KFWA FOR SURE AFTER 15Z WEDS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO POSE NO ISSUE. LIGHT NE FLOW WILL PERSIST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 212257
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
657 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S... WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SECONDARY PUSH OF CAA NOW WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
MORNING`S SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH. REGIONAL
LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY VEERED TO A MORE NNE DIRECTION...
ADVECTING COOL/DRY AIR INTO THE AREA AND LEADING TO AN UNFAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN OUR CWA. MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
ALSO BEGINNING TO RISE AS HIGH AMPLITUDE/SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGE
FOLDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED AVA WILL GENERATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF A DECENT SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
MAY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OFF OF HURON IN OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY SLIM AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.
CAA HAS KEPT A LID ON AFTERNOON TEMPS AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
TAKE A SIMILAR DIP. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH A LIGHT NE WIND ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S. CLOUDS LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE EAST AND WILL
HOLD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THERE. GROWING SEASON HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE CWA SO NO HEADLINES WARRANTED. STRATOCU WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN EVEN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SOME MODERATION OF THERMAL PROFILES DESPITE
WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW. INHERITED FORECAST OF MID 50S IS IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500/300 MB LAYER WILL BE WANING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN LIGHT OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE ONGOING GRIDS/FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER
WEST AREAS GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP SATURATION AND WEAK LIFT PER 305K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN ECMWF AND
GFS 850 MB TEMPS 13C TO 16C...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT
LEAST AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY.  THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. GUT FEELING IS RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TUESDAY GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...FRONTAL LIFT AND UPPER
LEVEL JET SUPPORT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NRN EDGE OF STRATO CU DECK MOVG SOUTH/20KT ACROSS SWRN MI SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH KSBN THIS EVE. KFWA WILL REMAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW DROPPING SE THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES A LITTLE LONGER... BUT SHOULD ALSO LOOSE LOW CIGS
OVERNIGHT. THE WRN EDGE OF THIS STRATO CU DECK SHOULD MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS WEDNESDAY AS LOW CONTS TO DEEPEN AND SOME WEAK
LOW LEVEL DIURNAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR FEW-SCT CU AT KFWA BUT DOUBTFUL IF LOW CIGS WILL REDEVELOP
THIS FAR WEST. LIGHT N-NE GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 212257
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
657 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S... WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SECONDARY PUSH OF CAA NOW WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
MORNING`S SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH. REGIONAL
LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY VEERED TO A MORE NNE DIRECTION...
ADVECTING COOL/DRY AIR INTO THE AREA AND LEADING TO AN UNFAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN OUR CWA. MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
ALSO BEGINNING TO RISE AS HIGH AMPLITUDE/SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGE
FOLDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED AVA WILL GENERATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF A DECENT SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
MAY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OFF OF HURON IN OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY SLIM AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.
CAA HAS KEPT A LID ON AFTERNOON TEMPS AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
TAKE A SIMILAR DIP. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH A LIGHT NE WIND ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S. CLOUDS LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE EAST AND WILL
HOLD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THERE. GROWING SEASON HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE CWA SO NO HEADLINES WARRANTED. STRATOCU WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN EVEN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SOME MODERATION OF THERMAL PROFILES DESPITE
WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW. INHERITED FORECAST OF MID 50S IS IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500/300 MB LAYER WILL BE WANING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN LIGHT OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE ONGOING GRIDS/FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER
WEST AREAS GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP SATURATION AND WEAK LIFT PER 305K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN ECMWF AND
GFS 850 MB TEMPS 13C TO 16C...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT
LEAST AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY.  THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. GUT FEELING IS RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TUESDAY GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...FRONTAL LIFT AND UPPER
LEVEL JET SUPPORT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NRN EDGE OF STRATO CU DECK MOVG SOUTH/20KT ACROSS SWRN MI SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH KSBN THIS EVE. KFWA WILL REMAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW DROPPING SE THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES A LITTLE LONGER... BUT SHOULD ALSO LOOSE LOW CIGS
OVERNIGHT. THE WRN EDGE OF THIS STRATO CU DECK SHOULD MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS WEDNESDAY AS LOW CONTS TO DEEPEN AND SOME WEAK
LOW LEVEL DIURNAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR FEW-SCT CU AT KFWA BUT DOUBTFUL IF LOW CIGS WILL REDEVELOP
THIS FAR WEST. LIGHT N-NE GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 211959
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
359 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOWS TONIGHT INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SECONDARY PUSH OF CAA NOW WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
MORNING`S SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH. REGIONAL
LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY VEERED TO A MORE NNE DIRECTION...
ADVECTING COOL/DRY AIR INTO THE AREA AND LEADING TO AN UNFAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN OUR CWA. MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
ALSO BEGINNING TO RISE AS HIGH AMPLITUDE/SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGE
FOLDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED AVA WILL GENERATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF A DECENT SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
MAY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OFF OF HURON IN OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY SLIM AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.
CAA HAS KEPT A LID ON AFTERNOON TEMPS AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
TAKE A SIMILAR DIP. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH A LIGHT NE WIND ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S. CLOUDS LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE EAST AND WILL
HOLD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THERE. GROWING SEASON HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE CWA SO NO HEADLINES WARRANTED. STRATOCU WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN EVEN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SOME MODERATION OF THERMAL PROFILES DESPITE
WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW. INHERITED FORECAST OF MID 50S IS IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500/300 MB LAYER WILL BE WANING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN LIGHT OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE ONGOING GRIDS/FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER
WEST AREAS GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP SATURATION AND WEAK LIFT PER 305K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN ECMWF AND
GFS 850 MB TEMPS 13C TO 16C...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT
LEAST AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY.  THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. GUT FEELING IS RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TUESDAY GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...FRONTAL LIFT AND UPPER
LEVEL JET SUPPORT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E FLUX FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS
SUPPORTING HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA AT PRESS TIME.
EXPECT THIS STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK WILL GRADUALLY ERODE BY LATER
THIS EVENING BUT EXACT TIMING OF TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM OBS
STILL SHOW A LARGE AREA OF 3 KFT CEILINGS YET TO GO AND LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL NOT SCATTER UNTIL AT LEAST
21-00Z. HAVE THEREFORE PUSHED BACK THE TRANSITION TO VFR CATEGORY
BY A FEW HOURS. FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE BUILD OVER THE REGION.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 211959
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
359 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOWS TONIGHT INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SECONDARY PUSH OF CAA NOW WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
MORNING`S SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH. REGIONAL
LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY VEERED TO A MORE NNE DIRECTION...
ADVECTING COOL/DRY AIR INTO THE AREA AND LEADING TO AN UNFAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN OUR CWA. MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
ALSO BEGINNING TO RISE AS HIGH AMPLITUDE/SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGE
FOLDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED AVA WILL GENERATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF A DECENT SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
MAY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OFF OF HURON IN OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY SLIM AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.
CAA HAS KEPT A LID ON AFTERNOON TEMPS AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
TAKE A SIMILAR DIP. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH A LIGHT NE WIND ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S. CLOUDS LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE EAST AND WILL
HOLD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THERE. GROWING SEASON HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE CWA SO NO HEADLINES WARRANTED. STRATOCU WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN EVEN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SOME MODERATION OF THERMAL PROFILES DESPITE
WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW. INHERITED FORECAST OF MID 50S IS IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500/300 MB LAYER WILL BE WANING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN LIGHT OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE ONGOING GRIDS/FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER
WEST AREAS GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP SATURATION AND WEAK LIFT PER 305K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN ECMWF AND
GFS 850 MB TEMPS 13C TO 16C...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT
LEAST AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY.  THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. GUT FEELING IS RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TUESDAY GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...FRONTAL LIFT AND UPPER
LEVEL JET SUPPORT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E FLUX FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS
SUPPORTING HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA AT PRESS TIME.
EXPECT THIS STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK WILL GRADUALLY ERODE BY LATER
THIS EVENING BUT EXACT TIMING OF TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM OBS
STILL SHOW A LARGE AREA OF 3 KFT CEILINGS YET TO GO AND LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL NOT SCATTER UNTIL AT LEAST
21-00Z. HAVE THEREFORE PUSHED BACK THE TRANSITION TO VFR CATEGORY
BY A FEW HOURS. FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE BUILD OVER THE REGION.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 211726
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
126 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MIDLEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS
INDICATE SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE RECEIVING LIGHT...BUT MEASURABLE...
RAINFALL. PRECIP IS BEING FORCED BY MODEST DCVA AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BUT IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY SOME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BY
THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED SOUTH.
LATEST RAP AND HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA SO NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE N AND NE. WHILE SKIES WILL CLEAR
IN WESTERN AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
LONGER AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE HURON. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY IF NOT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ALONG/EAST OF I-69.

AS SKIES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
CLEARING IN THE WEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH NE
FLOW USHERING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN A SIMILAR
RANGE (LOW TO MID 30S). FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH END OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PARTS NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PLACE LOCAL AREA INTO
UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION ZONE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCU
PERSISTING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
BUILDING IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSING OFF SYSTEM ACROSS
MID ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP SHOULD PROVIDE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND A FEW GOOD NIGHTS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S (POSSIBLY LOWER 30S IN
COOL SPOTS). PER PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SENT
YESTERDAY...FROST/FREZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR LOCAL
AREA DUE TO EFFECTIVE ENDING OF THE GROWING SEASON.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THURSDAY WILL BE UPPER PV ANOMALY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
ATTENUATE THIS PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY RESULTING IN WANING UPPER FORCING.
NONETHELESS...ANOTHER NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL PRECEDE
THIS UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. NO CHANGE
NEEDED TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO
WEAKENING NATURE OF UPPER PV ANOMALY.

UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET PINCHED OFF FROM AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORKING INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MARK A MORE DISTINCT WARMING
TREND FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT SHARPER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ALTHOUGH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAR SOUTH STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ABLE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

A SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E FLUX FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS
SUPPORTING HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA AT PRESS TIME.
EXPECT THIS STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK WILL GRADUALLY ERODE BY LATER
THIS EVENING BUT EXACT TIMING OF TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM OBS
STILL SHOW A LARGE AREA OF 3 KFT CEILINGS YET TO GO AND LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL NOT SCATTER UNTIL AT LEAST
21-00Z. HAVE THEREFORE PUSHED BACK THE TRANSITION TO VFR CATEGORY
BY A FEW HOURS. FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE BUILD OVER THE REGION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AGD
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 211250
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
850 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MIDLEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS
INDICATE SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE RECEIVING LIGHT...BUT MEASURABLE...
RAINFALL. PRECIP IS BEING FORCED BY MODEST DCVA AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BUT IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY SOME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BY
THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED SOUTH.
LATEST RAP AND HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA SO NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE N AND NE. WHILE SKIES WILL CLEAR
IN WESTERN AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
LONGER AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE HURON. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY IF NOT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ALONG/EAST OF I-69.

AS SKIES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
CLEARING IN THE WEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH NE
FLOW USHERING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN A SIMILAR
RANGE (LOW TO MID 30S). FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH END OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PARTS NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PLACE LOCAL AREA INTO
UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION ZONE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCU
PERSISTING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
BUILDING IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSING OFF SYSTEM ACROSS
MID ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP SHOULD PROVIDE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND A FEW GOOD NIGHTS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S (POSSIBLY LOWER 30S IN
COOL SPOTS). PER PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SENT
YESTERDAY...FROST/FREZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR LOCAL
AREA DUE TO EFFECTIVE ENDING OF THE GROWING SEASON.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THURSDAY WILL BE UPPER PV ANOMALY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
ATTENUATE THIS PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY RESULTING IN WANING UPPER FORCING.
NONETHELESS...ANOTHER NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL PRECEDE
THIS UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. NO CHANGE
NEEDED TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO
WEAKENING NATURE OF UPPER PV ANOMALY.

UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET PINCHED OFF FROM AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORKING INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MARK A MORE DISTINCT WARMING
TREND FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT SHARPER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ALTHOUGH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAR SOUTH STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ABLE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

A SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH MARGINAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. A SHEARED UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PROVIDING
SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT. MAY INCLUDE A TEMPO -SHRA MENTION FOR
KSBN WITH THE 12Z TAFS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORT LIVED
2-3K FT CIGS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR STRATOCU TODAY...AND
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERSPREADS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AGD
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 211250
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
850 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MIDLEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS
INDICATE SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE RECEIVING LIGHT...BUT MEASURABLE...
RAINFALL. PRECIP IS BEING FORCED BY MODEST DCVA AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BUT IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY SOME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BY
THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED SOUTH.
LATEST RAP AND HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA SO NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE N AND NE. WHILE SKIES WILL CLEAR
IN WESTERN AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
LONGER AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE HURON. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY IF NOT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ALONG/EAST OF I-69.

AS SKIES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
CLEARING IN THE WEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH NE
FLOW USHERING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN A SIMILAR
RANGE (LOW TO MID 30S). FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH END OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PARTS NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PLACE LOCAL AREA INTO
UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION ZONE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCU
PERSISTING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
BUILDING IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSING OFF SYSTEM ACROSS
MID ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP SHOULD PROVIDE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND A FEW GOOD NIGHTS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S (POSSIBLY LOWER 30S IN
COOL SPOTS). PER PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SENT
YESTERDAY...FROST/FREZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR LOCAL
AREA DUE TO EFFECTIVE ENDING OF THE GROWING SEASON.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THURSDAY WILL BE UPPER PV ANOMALY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
ATTENUATE THIS PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY RESULTING IN WANING UPPER FORCING.
NONETHELESS...ANOTHER NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL PRECEDE
THIS UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. NO CHANGE
NEEDED TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO
WEAKENING NATURE OF UPPER PV ANOMALY.

UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET PINCHED OFF FROM AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORKING INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MARK A MORE DISTINCT WARMING
TREND FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT SHARPER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ALTHOUGH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAR SOUTH STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ABLE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

A SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH MARGINAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. A SHEARED UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PROVIDING
SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT. MAY INCLUDE A TEMPO -SHRA MENTION FOR
KSBN WITH THE 12Z TAFS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORT LIVED
2-3K FT CIGS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR STRATOCU TODAY...AND
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERSPREADS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AGD
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 211053
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
653 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE N AND NE. WHILE SKIES WILL CLEAR
IN WESTERN AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
LONGER AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE HURON. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY IF NOT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ALONG/EAST OF I-69.

AS SKIES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
CLEARING IN THE WEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH NE
FLOW USHERING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN A SIMILAR
RANGE (LOW TO MID 30S). FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH END OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PARTS NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PLACE LOCAL AREA INTO
UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION ZONE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCU
PERSISTING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
BUILDING IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSING OFF SYSTEM ACROSS
MID ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP SHOULD PROVIDE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND A FEW GOOD NIGHTS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S (POSSIBLY LOWER 30S IN
COOL SPOTS). PER PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SENT
YESTERDAY...FROST/FREZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR LOCAL
AREA DUE TO EFFECTIVE ENDING OF THE GROWING SEASON.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THURSDAY WILL BE UPPER PV ANOMALY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
ATTENUATE THIS PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY RESULTING IN WANING UPPER FORCING.
NONETHELESS...ANOTHER NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL PRECEDE
THIS UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. NO CHANGE
NEEDED TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO
WEAKENING NATURE OF UPPER PV ANOMALY.

UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET PINCHED OFF FROM AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORKING INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MARK A MORE DISTINCT WARMING
TREND FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT SHARPER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ALTHOUGH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAR SOUTH STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ABLE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

A SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH MARGINAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. A SHEARED UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PROVIDING
SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT. MAY INCLUDE A TEMPO -SHRA MENTION FOR
KSBN WITH THE 12Z TAFS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORT LIVED
2-3K FT CIGS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR STRATOCU TODAY...AND
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERSPREADS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 211053
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
653 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE N AND NE. WHILE SKIES WILL CLEAR
IN WESTERN AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
LONGER AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE HURON. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY IF NOT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ALONG/EAST OF I-69.

AS SKIES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
CLEARING IN THE WEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH NE
FLOW USHERING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN A SIMILAR
RANGE (LOW TO MID 30S). FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH END OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PARTS NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PLACE LOCAL AREA INTO
UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION ZONE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCU
PERSISTING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
BUILDING IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSING OFF SYSTEM ACROSS
MID ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP SHOULD PROVIDE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND A FEW GOOD NIGHTS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S (POSSIBLY LOWER 30S IN
COOL SPOTS). PER PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SENT
YESTERDAY...FROST/FREZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR LOCAL
AREA DUE TO EFFECTIVE ENDING OF THE GROWING SEASON.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THURSDAY WILL BE UPPER PV ANOMALY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
ATTENUATE THIS PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY RESULTING IN WANING UPPER FORCING.
NONETHELESS...ANOTHER NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL PRECEDE
THIS UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. NO CHANGE
NEEDED TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO
WEAKENING NATURE OF UPPER PV ANOMALY.

UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET PINCHED OFF FROM AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORKING INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MARK A MORE DISTINCT WARMING
TREND FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT SHARPER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ALTHOUGH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAR SOUTH STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ABLE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

A SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH MARGINAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. A SHEARED UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PROVIDING
SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT. MAY INCLUDE A TEMPO -SHRA MENTION FOR
KSBN WITH THE 12Z TAFS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORT LIVED
2-3K FT CIGS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR STRATOCU TODAY...AND
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERSPREADS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 211053
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
653 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE N AND NE. WHILE SKIES WILL CLEAR
IN WESTERN AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
LONGER AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE HURON. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY IF NOT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ALONG/EAST OF I-69.

AS SKIES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
CLEARING IN THE WEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH NE
FLOW USHERING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN A SIMILAR
RANGE (LOW TO MID 30S). FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH END OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PARTS NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PLACE LOCAL AREA INTO
UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION ZONE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCU
PERSISTING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
BUILDING IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSING OFF SYSTEM ACROSS
MID ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP SHOULD PROVIDE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND A FEW GOOD NIGHTS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S (POSSIBLY LOWER 30S IN
COOL SPOTS). PER PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SENT
YESTERDAY...FROST/FREZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR LOCAL
AREA DUE TO EFFECTIVE ENDING OF THE GROWING SEASON.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THURSDAY WILL BE UPPER PV ANOMALY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
ATTENUATE THIS PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY RESULTING IN WANING UPPER FORCING.
NONETHELESS...ANOTHER NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL PRECEDE
THIS UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. NO CHANGE
NEEDED TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO
WEAKENING NATURE OF UPPER PV ANOMALY.

UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET PINCHED OFF FROM AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORKING INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MARK A MORE DISTINCT WARMING
TREND FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT SHARPER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ALTHOUGH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAR SOUTH STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ABLE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

A SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH MARGINAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. A SHEARED UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PROVIDING
SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT. MAY INCLUDE A TEMPO -SHRA MENTION FOR
KSBN WITH THE 12Z TAFS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORT LIVED
2-3K FT CIGS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR STRATOCU TODAY...AND
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERSPREADS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 211053
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
653 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE N AND NE. WHILE SKIES WILL CLEAR
IN WESTERN AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
LONGER AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE HURON. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY IF NOT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ALONG/EAST OF I-69.

AS SKIES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
CLEARING IN THE WEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH NE
FLOW USHERING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN A SIMILAR
RANGE (LOW TO MID 30S). FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH END OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PARTS NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PLACE LOCAL AREA INTO
UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION ZONE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCU
PERSISTING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
BUILDING IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSING OFF SYSTEM ACROSS
MID ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP SHOULD PROVIDE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND A FEW GOOD NIGHTS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S (POSSIBLY LOWER 30S IN
COOL SPOTS). PER PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SENT
YESTERDAY...FROST/FREZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR LOCAL
AREA DUE TO EFFECTIVE ENDING OF THE GROWING SEASON.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THURSDAY WILL BE UPPER PV ANOMALY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
ATTENUATE THIS PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY RESULTING IN WANING UPPER FORCING.
NONETHELESS...ANOTHER NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL PRECEDE
THIS UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. NO CHANGE
NEEDED TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO
WEAKENING NATURE OF UPPER PV ANOMALY.

UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET PINCHED OFF FROM AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORKING INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MARK A MORE DISTINCT WARMING
TREND FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT SHARPER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ALTHOUGH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAR SOUTH STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ABLE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

A SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH MARGINAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. A SHEARED UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PROVIDING
SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT. MAY INCLUDE A TEMPO -SHRA MENTION FOR
KSBN WITH THE 12Z TAFS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORT LIVED
2-3K FT CIGS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR STRATOCU TODAY...AND
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERSPREADS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








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