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000
FXUS63 KIWX 061145
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
645 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING
FOR STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING MILDER AIR NORTHWARD TODAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID 20S. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH NEAR STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF
A LOW AMPLITUDE LOW LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL MARK THE ONSET OF A
PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE LOW
LEVEL WAA...WILL COME LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS TODAY AND MORE
LIMITED MIXING WHICH MAY PARTIALLY OFFSET STRONGER WARM ADVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ONE ITEM OF LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE EXTENT OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. AN UPPER VORT MAX
EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AS EVIDENT IN 00Z KILX RAOB WITH A PWAT OF 0.06
INCHES. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID DECK SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE
WHICH WILL MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS MAY BE
REACHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON (22Z-00Z) GIVEN EFFECTS OF SHALLOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LATE ONSET OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...BUT SHOULD SEE TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS EVEN
UPPER 20S FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOUTH WIND
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TEND TO SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS MORE PRONOUNCED SFC PRESSURE FALLS SHIFT
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINIMAL
TEMP DROPS INTO UPPER TEENS OR AROUND 20 ACROSS THE EAST EARLY
EVENING... BUT EXPECTING THERMAL ADVECTIONS TO BE DOMINANT TO
PROMOTE A STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURE TREND OVERNIGHT.
THE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO REACH WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/THETAE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
SHORT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODERATION IN LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE NW FLOW
ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND. EACH OF THESE WAVES...COMBINED WITH CURRENT
SNOW PACK ACROSS THE AREA...WILL INITIALLY TEMPER ANY FULL
REALIZATION OF THE WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE INCREASING ANGLE OF THE MARCH SUN
HELPS THE WARMING PROCESS THIS WEEKEND AS WAS NOTED LAST WEEK WITH
HIGHS SEVERAL DAYS 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AND LOCAL
FORECASTS. EACH WAVE COULD BRING SOME VERY LGT SNOW OR RAIN WITH
BEST CHANCE SUN...BUT EVEN THIS LOOKS TO COME THROUGH DRY EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY FAR N AREAS.

STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AS WELL AS WHAT SHOULD BE A REDUCED
SNOWPACK...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 40S AND
LIKELY INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SUPERBLEND OF GUIDANCE
SEEMED TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THINGS TO KEPT WITH IT FOR TEMPERATURES.
SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE GULF STATES TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH SUPERBLEND PLACING CHC POPS IN THURSDAY. CAN`T SEE ANY REASON
TO RUN WITH THESE AS EVERYTHING WILL BE WELL REMOVED TO THE
SOUTH...BARELY MAKING IT HERE BY LATE FRIDAY IF AT ALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL SAG SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING ALLOWING FOR STEADILY STRENGTHENING GRADIENT. CORE OF SFC
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALSO
SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AIDING IN SOUTHERLY WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE FROM 06Z
TAFS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS AT KSBN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS A BIT MORE TEMPERED INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AT KFWA.
ONLY SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION FOR TONIGHT
(WARM FRONT) MAY PROMOTE SOME MVFR CIGS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CIGS AT
KSBN...BUT HELD OFF MENTION FOR NOW AT KFWA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
SOMEWHAT LOWER.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 061145
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
645 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING
FOR STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING MILDER AIR NORTHWARD TODAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID 20S. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH NEAR STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF
A LOW AMPLITUDE LOW LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL MARK THE ONSET OF A
PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE LOW
LEVEL WAA...WILL COME LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS TODAY AND MORE
LIMITED MIXING WHICH MAY PARTIALLY OFFSET STRONGER WARM ADVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ONE ITEM OF LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE EXTENT OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. AN UPPER VORT MAX
EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AS EVIDENT IN 00Z KILX RAOB WITH A PWAT OF 0.06
INCHES. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID DECK SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE
WHICH WILL MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS MAY BE
REACHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON (22Z-00Z) GIVEN EFFECTS OF SHALLOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LATE ONSET OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...BUT SHOULD SEE TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS EVEN
UPPER 20S FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOUTH WIND
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TEND TO SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS MORE PRONOUNCED SFC PRESSURE FALLS SHIFT
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINIMAL
TEMP DROPS INTO UPPER TEENS OR AROUND 20 ACROSS THE EAST EARLY
EVENING... BUT EXPECTING THERMAL ADVECTIONS TO BE DOMINANT TO
PROMOTE A STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURE TREND OVERNIGHT.
THE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO REACH WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/THETAE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
SHORT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODERATION IN LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE NW FLOW
ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND. EACH OF THESE WAVES...COMBINED WITH CURRENT
SNOW PACK ACROSS THE AREA...WILL INITIALLY TEMPER ANY FULL
REALIZATION OF THE WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE INCREASING ANGLE OF THE MARCH SUN
HELPS THE WARMING PROCESS THIS WEEKEND AS WAS NOTED LAST WEEK WITH
HIGHS SEVERAL DAYS 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AND LOCAL
FORECASTS. EACH WAVE COULD BRING SOME VERY LGT SNOW OR RAIN WITH
BEST CHANCE SUN...BUT EVEN THIS LOOKS TO COME THROUGH DRY EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY FAR N AREAS.

STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AS WELL AS WHAT SHOULD BE A REDUCED
SNOWPACK...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 40S AND
LIKELY INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SUPERBLEND OF GUIDANCE
SEEMED TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THINGS TO KEPT WITH IT FOR TEMPERATURES.
SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE GULF STATES TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH SUPERBLEND PLACING CHC POPS IN THURSDAY. CAN`T SEE ANY REASON
TO RUN WITH THESE AS EVERYTHING WILL BE WELL REMOVED TO THE
SOUTH...BARELY MAKING IT HERE BY LATE FRIDAY IF AT ALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL SAG SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING ALLOWING FOR STEADILY STRENGTHENING GRADIENT. CORE OF SFC
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALSO
SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AIDING IN SOUTHERLY WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE FROM 06Z
TAFS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS AT KSBN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS A BIT MORE TEMPERED INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AT KFWA.
ONLY SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION FOR TONIGHT
(WARM FRONT) MAY PROMOTE SOME MVFR CIGS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CIGS AT
KSBN...BUT HELD OFF MENTION FOR NOW AT KFWA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
SOMEWHAT LOWER.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 061145
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
645 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING
FOR STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING MILDER AIR NORTHWARD TODAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID 20S. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH NEAR STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF
A LOW AMPLITUDE LOW LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL MARK THE ONSET OF A
PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE LOW
LEVEL WAA...WILL COME LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS TODAY AND MORE
LIMITED MIXING WHICH MAY PARTIALLY OFFSET STRONGER WARM ADVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ONE ITEM OF LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE EXTENT OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. AN UPPER VORT MAX
EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AS EVIDENT IN 00Z KILX RAOB WITH A PWAT OF 0.06
INCHES. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID DECK SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE
WHICH WILL MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS MAY BE
REACHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON (22Z-00Z) GIVEN EFFECTS OF SHALLOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LATE ONSET OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...BUT SHOULD SEE TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS EVEN
UPPER 20S FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOUTH WIND
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TEND TO SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS MORE PRONOUNCED SFC PRESSURE FALLS SHIFT
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINIMAL
TEMP DROPS INTO UPPER TEENS OR AROUND 20 ACROSS THE EAST EARLY
EVENING... BUT EXPECTING THERMAL ADVECTIONS TO BE DOMINANT TO
PROMOTE A STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURE TREND OVERNIGHT.
THE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO REACH WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/THETAE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
SHORT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODERATION IN LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE NW FLOW
ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND. EACH OF THESE WAVES...COMBINED WITH CURRENT
SNOW PACK ACROSS THE AREA...WILL INITIALLY TEMPER ANY FULL
REALIZATION OF THE WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE INCREASING ANGLE OF THE MARCH SUN
HELPS THE WARMING PROCESS THIS WEEKEND AS WAS NOTED LAST WEEK WITH
HIGHS SEVERAL DAYS 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AND LOCAL
FORECASTS. EACH WAVE COULD BRING SOME VERY LGT SNOW OR RAIN WITH
BEST CHANCE SUN...BUT EVEN THIS LOOKS TO COME THROUGH DRY EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY FAR N AREAS.

STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AS WELL AS WHAT SHOULD BE A REDUCED
SNOWPACK...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 40S AND
LIKELY INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SUPERBLEND OF GUIDANCE
SEEMED TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THINGS TO KEPT WITH IT FOR TEMPERATURES.
SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE GULF STATES TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH SUPERBLEND PLACING CHC POPS IN THURSDAY. CAN`T SEE ANY REASON
TO RUN WITH THESE AS EVERYTHING WILL BE WELL REMOVED TO THE
SOUTH...BARELY MAKING IT HERE BY LATE FRIDAY IF AT ALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL SAG SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING ALLOWING FOR STEADILY STRENGTHENING GRADIENT. CORE OF SFC
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALSO
SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AIDING IN SOUTHERLY WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE FROM 06Z
TAFS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS AT KSBN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS A BIT MORE TEMPERED INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AT KFWA.
ONLY SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION FOR TONIGHT
(WARM FRONT) MAY PROMOTE SOME MVFR CIGS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CIGS AT
KSBN...BUT HELD OFF MENTION FOR NOW AT KFWA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
SOMEWHAT LOWER.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 060903
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
403 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING
FOR STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING MILDER AIR NORTHWARD TODAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID 20S. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH NEAR STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF
A LOW AMPLITUDE LOW LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL MARK THE ONSET OF A
PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE LOW
LEVEL WAA...WILL COME LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS TODAY AND MORE
LIMITED MIXING WHICH MAY PARTIALLY OFFSET STRONGER WARM ADVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ONE ITEM OF LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE EXTENT OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. AN UPPER VORT MAX
EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AS EVIDENT IN 00Z KILX RAOB WITH A PWAT OF 0.06
INCHES. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID DECK SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE
WHICH WILL MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS MAY BE
REACHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON (22Z-00Z) GIVEN EFFECTS OF SHALLOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LATE ONSET OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...BUT SHOULD SEE TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS EVEN
UPPER 20S FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOUTH WIND
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TEND TO SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS MORE PRONOUNCED SFC PRESSURE FALLS SHIFT
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINIMAL
TEMP DROPS INTO UPPER TEENS OR AROUND 20 ACROSS THE EAST EARLY
EVENING... BUT EXPECTING THERMAL ADVECTIONS TO BE DOMINANT TO
PROMOTE A STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURE TREND OVERNIGHT.
THE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO REACH WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/THETAE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
SHORT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODERATION IN LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE NW FLOW
ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND. EACH OF THESE WAVES...COMBINED WITH CURRENT
SNOW PACK ACROSS THE AREA...WILL INITIALLY TEMPER ANY FULL
REALIZATION OF THE WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE INCREASING ANGLE OF THE MARCH SUN
HELPS THE WARMING PROCESS THIS WEEKEND AS WAS NOTED LAST WEEK WITH
HIGHS SEVERAL DAYS 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AND LOCAL
FORECASTS. EACH WAVE COULD BRING SOME VERY LGT SNOW OR RAIN WITH
BEST CHANCE SUN...BUT EVEN THIS LOOKS TO COME THROUGH DRY EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY FAR N AREAS.

STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AS WELL AS WHAT SHOULD BE A REDUCED
SNOWPACK...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 40S AND
LIKELY INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SUPERBLEND OF GUIDANCE
SEEMED TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THINGS TO KEPT WITH IT FOR TEMPERATURES.
SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE GULF STATES TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH SUPERBLEND PLACING CHC POPS IN THURSDAY. CAN`T SEE ANY REASON
TO RUN WITH THESE AS EVERYTHING WILL BE WELL REMOVED TO THE
SOUTH...BARELY MAKING IT HERE BY LATE FRIDAY IF AT ALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
THIS OCCURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...WITH STEADILY INCREASING GRADIENT
SUPPORTING GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...BUT MORE LIKELY
OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 060903
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
403 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING
FOR STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING MILDER AIR NORTHWARD TODAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID 20S. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH NEAR STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF
A LOW AMPLITUDE LOW LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL MARK THE ONSET OF A
PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE LOW
LEVEL WAA...WILL COME LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS TODAY AND MORE
LIMITED MIXING WHICH MAY PARTIALLY OFFSET STRONGER WARM ADVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ONE ITEM OF LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE EXTENT OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. AN UPPER VORT MAX
EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED AS EVIDENT IN 00Z KILX RAOB WITH A PWAT OF 0.06
INCHES. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID DECK SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE
WHICH WILL MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS MAY BE
REACHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON (22Z-00Z) GIVEN EFFECTS OF SHALLOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND LATE ONSET OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...BUT SHOULD SEE TEMPS REACH INTO THE MID AND PERHAPS EVEN
UPPER 20S FAR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOUTH WIND
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TEND TO SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS MORE PRONOUNCED SFC PRESSURE FALLS SHIFT
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINIMAL
TEMP DROPS INTO UPPER TEENS OR AROUND 20 ACROSS THE EAST EARLY
EVENING... BUT EXPECTING THERMAL ADVECTIONS TO BE DOMINANT TO
PROMOTE A STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURE TREND OVERNIGHT.
THE NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO REACH WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/THETAE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
SHORT WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODERATION IN LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE NW FLOW
ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND. EACH OF THESE WAVES...COMBINED WITH CURRENT
SNOW PACK ACROSS THE AREA...WILL INITIALLY TEMPER ANY FULL
REALIZATION OF THE WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE INCREASING ANGLE OF THE MARCH SUN
HELPS THE WARMING PROCESS THIS WEEKEND AS WAS NOTED LAST WEEK WITH
HIGHS SEVERAL DAYS 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AND LOCAL
FORECASTS. EACH WAVE COULD BRING SOME VERY LGT SNOW OR RAIN WITH
BEST CHANCE SUN...BUT EVEN THIS LOOKS TO COME THROUGH DRY EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY FAR N AREAS.

STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION AS WELL AS WHAT SHOULD BE A REDUCED
SNOWPACK...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 40S AND
LIKELY INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SUPERBLEND OF GUIDANCE
SEEMED TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THINGS TO KEPT WITH IT FOR TEMPERATURES.
SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE GULF STATES TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH SUPERBLEND PLACING CHC POPS IN THURSDAY. CAN`T SEE ANY REASON
TO RUN WITH THESE AS EVERYTHING WILL BE WELL REMOVED TO THE
SOUTH...BARELY MAKING IT HERE BY LATE FRIDAY IF AT ALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
THIS OCCURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...WITH STEADILY INCREASING GRADIENT
SUPPORTING GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...BUT MORE LIKELY
OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 060542
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1242 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 851 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXTREMELY
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AS LOW AS -10 DEGREES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

RAPID EWD EXODUS OF POS TILTED MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF THROUGH LWR
GRTLKS INTO ERN STATES FOLLOWED BY LESSER AMPLITUDE TROFFING INTO
WRN GRTLKS FRI TO SOLIDIFY DRY CP ARCTIC AIRMASS ACRS REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. INCRS WRLY FLOW UPWIND OF LK MI TO
AFFORD DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH ANY LINGERING FLURRIES SUCCUMBING
TO DEMISE NEAR SUNSET FOLLOWED BY RAPID LONGWAVE RADIATIONAL
LOSSES. AS SFC RIDGELINE SETTLES INTO OH VLY ON FRI AND TWO HIGH
BELTED CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACK WELL N-NW...ONE INTO FAR SRN HUDSON
BAY/NRN JAMES BAY THE OTHER TO LAKE WINNIPEG BY 00 UTC SAT.
EXTREME DRY UPSTREAM AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 20 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PWAT...LTE 0.10 INCHES THROUGHOUT UPR/MID MS VLY. STRONG
WAA SFC-925MB ALONG WITH HIGH EARLY MARCH SUN ANGLE/INSOLATION
WITH NEAR 10C/12 HR RISES AT 925MB BY 21C IN SWRN CWA. AS SUCH
HAVE GONE A BIT HIR WITH TEMPS TMRW...STRONG DIURNAL PLUS...MUTED
ON ERN CWA ALONG TRAILING PERIPHERY OF EXITING COLD POOL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE START OF THE WARMUP BEGINS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF A MAX TEMP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE USED TO MELT SNOW.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND THIS WILL ACT TO TEMPER THE WARM
UP.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MIDWEEK INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. GIVEN THE FROST DEPTH SNOW
MELT WILL CREATE ISOLATED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREA AND POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WATERWAYS FOR
ICE JAMS AS THE RIVERS BEGIN TO SHED ICE AND FLOWS INCREASE.

NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE WARM-UP AND THUS LITTLE CONTRIBUTION
TO THE WATER/FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
THIS OCCURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...WITH STEADILY INCREASING GRADIENT
SUPPORTING GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...BUT MORE LIKELY
OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY/BENTLEY/REHBEIN
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 060542
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1242 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 851 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXTREMELY
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AS LOW AS -10 DEGREES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

RAPID EWD EXODUS OF POS TILTED MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF THROUGH LWR
GRTLKS INTO ERN STATES FOLLOWED BY LESSER AMPLITUDE TROFFING INTO
WRN GRTLKS FRI TO SOLIDIFY DRY CP ARCTIC AIRMASS ACRS REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. INCRS WRLY FLOW UPWIND OF LK MI TO
AFFORD DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH ANY LINGERING FLURRIES SUCCUMBING
TO DEMISE NEAR SUNSET FOLLOWED BY RAPID LONGWAVE RADIATIONAL
LOSSES. AS SFC RIDGELINE SETTLES INTO OH VLY ON FRI AND TWO HIGH
BELTED CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACK WELL N-NW...ONE INTO FAR SRN HUDSON
BAY/NRN JAMES BAY THE OTHER TO LAKE WINNIPEG BY 00 UTC SAT.
EXTREME DRY UPSTREAM AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 20 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PWAT...LTE 0.10 INCHES THROUGHOUT UPR/MID MS VLY. STRONG
WAA SFC-925MB ALONG WITH HIGH EARLY MARCH SUN ANGLE/INSOLATION
WITH NEAR 10C/12 HR RISES AT 925MB BY 21C IN SWRN CWA. AS SUCH
HAVE GONE A BIT HIR WITH TEMPS TMRW...STRONG DIURNAL PLUS...MUTED
ON ERN CWA ALONG TRAILING PERIPHERY OF EXITING COLD POOL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE START OF THE WARMUP BEGINS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF A MAX TEMP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE USED TO MELT SNOW.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND THIS WILL ACT TO TEMPER THE WARM
UP.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MIDWEEK INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. GIVEN THE FROST DEPTH SNOW
MELT WILL CREATE ISOLATED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREA AND POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WATERWAYS FOR
ICE JAMS AS THE RIVERS BEGIN TO SHED ICE AND FLOWS INCREASE.

NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE WARM-UP AND THUS LITTLE CONTRIBUTION
TO THE WATER/FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
THIS OCCURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...WITH STEADILY INCREASING GRADIENT
SUPPORTING GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...BUT MORE LIKELY
OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY/BENTLEY/REHBEIN
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 060542
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1242 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 851 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXTREMELY
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AS LOW AS -10 DEGREES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

RAPID EWD EXODUS OF POS TILTED MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF THROUGH LWR
GRTLKS INTO ERN STATES FOLLOWED BY LESSER AMPLITUDE TROFFING INTO
WRN GRTLKS FRI TO SOLIDIFY DRY CP ARCTIC AIRMASS ACRS REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. INCRS WRLY FLOW UPWIND OF LK MI TO
AFFORD DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH ANY LINGERING FLURRIES SUCCUMBING
TO DEMISE NEAR SUNSET FOLLOWED BY RAPID LONGWAVE RADIATIONAL
LOSSES. AS SFC RIDGELINE SETTLES INTO OH VLY ON FRI AND TWO HIGH
BELTED CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACK WELL N-NW...ONE INTO FAR SRN HUDSON
BAY/NRN JAMES BAY THE OTHER TO LAKE WINNIPEG BY 00 UTC SAT.
EXTREME DRY UPSTREAM AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 20 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PWAT...LTE 0.10 INCHES THROUGHOUT UPR/MID MS VLY. STRONG
WAA SFC-925MB ALONG WITH HIGH EARLY MARCH SUN ANGLE/INSOLATION
WITH NEAR 10C/12 HR RISES AT 925MB BY 21C IN SWRN CWA. AS SUCH
HAVE GONE A BIT HIR WITH TEMPS TMRW...STRONG DIURNAL PLUS...MUTED
ON ERN CWA ALONG TRAILING PERIPHERY OF EXITING COLD POOL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE START OF THE WARMUP BEGINS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF A MAX TEMP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE USED TO MELT SNOW.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND THIS WILL ACT TO TEMPER THE WARM
UP.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MIDWEEK INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. GIVEN THE FROST DEPTH SNOW
MELT WILL CREATE ISOLATED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREA AND POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WATERWAYS FOR
ICE JAMS AS THE RIVERS BEGIN TO SHED ICE AND FLOWS INCREASE.

NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE WARM-UP AND THUS LITTLE CONTRIBUTION
TO THE WATER/FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
THIS OCCURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...WITH STEADILY INCREASING GRADIENT
SUPPORTING GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...BUT MORE LIKELY
OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY/BENTLEY/REHBEIN
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 060542
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1242 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 851 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXTREMELY
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AS LOW AS -10 DEGREES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

RAPID EWD EXODUS OF POS TILTED MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF THROUGH LWR
GRTLKS INTO ERN STATES FOLLOWED BY LESSER AMPLITUDE TROFFING INTO
WRN GRTLKS FRI TO SOLIDIFY DRY CP ARCTIC AIRMASS ACRS REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. INCRS WRLY FLOW UPWIND OF LK MI TO
AFFORD DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH ANY LINGERING FLURRIES SUCCUMBING
TO DEMISE NEAR SUNSET FOLLOWED BY RAPID LONGWAVE RADIATIONAL
LOSSES. AS SFC RIDGELINE SETTLES INTO OH VLY ON FRI AND TWO HIGH
BELTED CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACK WELL N-NW...ONE INTO FAR SRN HUDSON
BAY/NRN JAMES BAY THE OTHER TO LAKE WINNIPEG BY 00 UTC SAT.
EXTREME DRY UPSTREAM AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 20 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PWAT...LTE 0.10 INCHES THROUGHOUT UPR/MID MS VLY. STRONG
WAA SFC-925MB ALONG WITH HIGH EARLY MARCH SUN ANGLE/INSOLATION
WITH NEAR 10C/12 HR RISES AT 925MB BY 21C IN SWRN CWA. AS SUCH
HAVE GONE A BIT HIR WITH TEMPS TMRW...STRONG DIURNAL PLUS...MUTED
ON ERN CWA ALONG TRAILING PERIPHERY OF EXITING COLD POOL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE START OF THE WARMUP BEGINS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF A MAX TEMP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE USED TO MELT SNOW.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND THIS WILL ACT TO TEMPER THE WARM
UP.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MIDWEEK INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. GIVEN THE FROST DEPTH SNOW
MELT WILL CREATE ISOLATED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREA AND POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WATERWAYS FOR
ICE JAMS AS THE RIVERS BEGIN TO SHED ICE AND FLOWS INCREASE.

NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE WARM-UP AND THUS LITTLE CONTRIBUTION
TO THE WATER/FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
THIS OCCURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...WITH STEADILY INCREASING GRADIENT
SUPPORTING GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...BUT MORE LIKELY
OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY/BENTLEY/REHBEIN
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 060151
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
851 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 851 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXTREMELY
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AS LOW AS -10 DEGREES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

RAPID EWD EXODUS OF POS TILTED MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF THROUGH LWR
GRTLKS INTO ERN STATES FOLLOWED BY LESSER AMPLITUDE TROFFING INTO
WRN GRTLKS FRI TO SOLIDIFY DRY CP ARCTIC AIRMASS ACRS REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. INCRS WRLY FLOW UPWIND OF LK MI TO
AFFORD DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH ANY LINGERING FLURRIES SUCCUMBING
TO DEMISE NEAR SUNSET FOLLOWED BY RAPID LONGWAVE RADIATIONAL
LOSSES. AS SFC RIDGELINE SETTLES INTO OH VLY ON FRI AND TWO HIGH
BELTED CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACK WELL N-NW...ONE INTO FAR SRN HUDSON
BAY/NRN JAMES BAY THE OTHER TO LAKE WINNIPEG BY 00 UTC SAT.
EXTREME DRY UPSTREAM AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 20 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PWAT...LTE 0.10 INCHES THROUGHOUT UPR/MID MS VLY. STRONG
WAA SFC-925MB ALONG WITH HIGH EARLY MARCH SUN ANGLE/INSOLATION
WITH NEAR 10C/12 HR RISES AT 925MB BY 21C IN SWRN CWA. AS SUCH
HAVE GONE A BIT HIR WITH TEMPS TMRW...STRONG DIURNAL PLUS...MUTED
ON ERN CWA ALONG TRAILING PERIPHERY OF EXITING COLD POOL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE START OF THE WARMUP BEGINS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF A MAX TEMP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE USED TO MELT SNOW.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND THIS WILL ACT TO TEMPER THE WARM
UP.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MIDWEEK INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. GIVEN THE FROST DEPTH SNOW
MELT WILL CREATE ISOLATED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREA AND POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WATERWAYS FOR
ICE JAMS AS THE RIVERS BEGIN TO SHED ICE AND FLOWS INCREASE.

NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE WARM-UP AND THUS LITTLE CONTRIBUTION
TO THE WATER/FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IL WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN INDIANA
TONIGHT RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AS A
TROF MOVES INTO THE WRN GRTLKS RESULTING IN INCREASING SWLY WINDS
AND PSBLY MVFR CIGS TOWARD EVE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY/BENTLEY/REHBEIN
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 060151
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
851 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 851 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXTREMELY
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AS LOW AS -10 DEGREES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

RAPID EWD EXODUS OF POS TILTED MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF THROUGH LWR
GRTLKS INTO ERN STATES FOLLOWED BY LESSER AMPLITUDE TROFFING INTO
WRN GRTLKS FRI TO SOLIDIFY DRY CP ARCTIC AIRMASS ACRS REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. INCRS WRLY FLOW UPWIND OF LK MI TO
AFFORD DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH ANY LINGERING FLURRIES SUCCUMBING
TO DEMISE NEAR SUNSET FOLLOWED BY RAPID LONGWAVE RADIATIONAL
LOSSES. AS SFC RIDGELINE SETTLES INTO OH VLY ON FRI AND TWO HIGH
BELTED CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACK WELL N-NW...ONE INTO FAR SRN HUDSON
BAY/NRN JAMES BAY THE OTHER TO LAKE WINNIPEG BY 00 UTC SAT.
EXTREME DRY UPSTREAM AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 20 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PWAT...LTE 0.10 INCHES THROUGHOUT UPR/MID MS VLY. STRONG
WAA SFC-925MB ALONG WITH HIGH EARLY MARCH SUN ANGLE/INSOLATION
WITH NEAR 10C/12 HR RISES AT 925MB BY 21C IN SWRN CWA. AS SUCH
HAVE GONE A BIT HIR WITH TEMPS TMRW...STRONG DIURNAL PLUS...MUTED
ON ERN CWA ALONG TRAILING PERIPHERY OF EXITING COLD POOL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE START OF THE WARMUP BEGINS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF A MAX TEMP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE USED TO MELT SNOW.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND THIS WILL ACT TO TEMPER THE WARM
UP.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MIDWEEK INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. GIVEN THE FROST DEPTH SNOW
MELT WILL CREATE ISOLATED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREA AND POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WATERWAYS FOR
ICE JAMS AS THE RIVERS BEGIN TO SHED ICE AND FLOWS INCREASE.

NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE WARM-UP AND THUS LITTLE CONTRIBUTION
TO THE WATER/FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IL WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN INDIANA
TONIGHT RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AS A
TROF MOVES INTO THE WRN GRTLKS RESULTING IN INCREASING SWLY WINDS
AND PSBLY MVFR CIGS TOWARD EVE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY/BENTLEY/REHBEIN
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA











000
FXUS63 KIWX 060151
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
851 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 851 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXTREMELY
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AS LOW AS -10 DEGREES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

RAPID EWD EXODUS OF POS TILTED MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF THROUGH LWR
GRTLKS INTO ERN STATES FOLLOWED BY LESSER AMPLITUDE TROFFING INTO
WRN GRTLKS FRI TO SOLIDIFY DRY CP ARCTIC AIRMASS ACRS REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. INCRS WRLY FLOW UPWIND OF LK MI TO
AFFORD DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH ANY LINGERING FLURRIES SUCCUMBING
TO DEMISE NEAR SUNSET FOLLOWED BY RAPID LONGWAVE RADIATIONAL
LOSSES. AS SFC RIDGELINE SETTLES INTO OH VLY ON FRI AND TWO HIGH
BELTED CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACK WELL N-NW...ONE INTO FAR SRN HUDSON
BAY/NRN JAMES BAY THE OTHER TO LAKE WINNIPEG BY 00 UTC SAT.
EXTREME DRY UPSTREAM AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 20 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PWAT...LTE 0.10 INCHES THROUGHOUT UPR/MID MS VLY. STRONG
WAA SFC-925MB ALONG WITH HIGH EARLY MARCH SUN ANGLE/INSOLATION
WITH NEAR 10C/12 HR RISES AT 925MB BY 21C IN SWRN CWA. AS SUCH
HAVE GONE A BIT HIR WITH TEMPS TMRW...STRONG DIURNAL PLUS...MUTED
ON ERN CWA ALONG TRAILING PERIPHERY OF EXITING COLD POOL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE START OF THE WARMUP BEGINS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF A MAX TEMP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE USED TO MELT SNOW.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND THIS WILL ACT TO TEMPER THE WARM
UP.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MIDWEEK INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. GIVEN THE FROST DEPTH SNOW
MELT WILL CREATE ISOLATED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREA AND POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WATERWAYS FOR
ICE JAMS AS THE RIVERS BEGIN TO SHED ICE AND FLOWS INCREASE.

NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE WARM-UP AND THUS LITTLE CONTRIBUTION
TO THE WATER/FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IL WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN INDIANA
TONIGHT RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AS A
TROF MOVES INTO THE WRN GRTLKS RESULTING IN INCREASING SWLY WINDS
AND PSBLY MVFR CIGS TOWARD EVE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY/BENTLEY/REHBEIN
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA











000
FXUS63 KIWX 060151
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
851 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 851 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXTREMELY
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AS LOW AS -10 DEGREES OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

RAPID EWD EXODUS OF POS TILTED MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF THROUGH LWR
GRTLKS INTO ERN STATES FOLLOWED BY LESSER AMPLITUDE TROFFING INTO
WRN GRTLKS FRI TO SOLIDIFY DRY CP ARCTIC AIRMASS ACRS REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. INCRS WRLY FLOW UPWIND OF LK MI TO
AFFORD DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH ANY LINGERING FLURRIES SUCCUMBING
TO DEMISE NEAR SUNSET FOLLOWED BY RAPID LONGWAVE RADIATIONAL
LOSSES. AS SFC RIDGELINE SETTLES INTO OH VLY ON FRI AND TWO HIGH
BELTED CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACK WELL N-NW...ONE INTO FAR SRN HUDSON
BAY/NRN JAMES BAY THE OTHER TO LAKE WINNIPEG BY 00 UTC SAT.
EXTREME DRY UPSTREAM AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 20 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PWAT...LTE 0.10 INCHES THROUGHOUT UPR/MID MS VLY. STRONG
WAA SFC-925MB ALONG WITH HIGH EARLY MARCH SUN ANGLE/INSOLATION
WITH NEAR 10C/12 HR RISES AT 925MB BY 21C IN SWRN CWA. AS SUCH
HAVE GONE A BIT HIR WITH TEMPS TMRW...STRONG DIURNAL PLUS...MUTED
ON ERN CWA ALONG TRAILING PERIPHERY OF EXITING COLD POOL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE START OF THE WARMUP BEGINS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF A MAX TEMP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE USED TO MELT SNOW.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND THIS WILL ACT TO TEMPER THE WARM
UP.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MIDWEEK INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. GIVEN THE FROST DEPTH SNOW
MELT WILL CREATE ISOLATED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREA AND POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WATERWAYS FOR
ICE JAMS AS THE RIVERS BEGIN TO SHED ICE AND FLOWS INCREASE.

NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE WARM-UP AND THUS LITTLE CONTRIBUTION
TO THE WATER/FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IL WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN INDIANA
TONIGHT RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AS A
TROF MOVES INTO THE WRN GRTLKS RESULTING IN INCREASING SWLY WINDS
AND PSBLY MVFR CIGS TOWARD EVE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY/BENTLEY/REHBEIN
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 052328
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
628 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
FEW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY EVENING.
EXTREMELY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

RAPID EWD EXODUS OF POS TILTED MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF THROUGH LWR
GRTLKS INTO ERN STATES FOLLOWED BY LESSER AMPLITUDE TROFFING INTO
WRN GRTLKS FRI TO SOLIDIFY DRY CP ARCTIC AIRMASS ACRS REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. INCRS WRLY FLOW UPWIND OF LK MI TO
AFFORD DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH ANY LINGERING FLURRIES SUCCUMBING
TO DEMISE NEAR SUNSET FOLLOWED BY RAPID LONGWAVE RADIATIONAL
LOSSES. AS SFC RIDGELINE SETTLES INTO OH VLY ON FRI AND TWO HIGH
BELTED CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACK WELL N-NW...ONE INTO FAR SRN HUDSON
BAY/NRN JAMES BAY THE OTHER TO LAKE WINNIPEG BY 00 UTC SAT.
EXTREME DRY UPSTREAM AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 20 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PWAT...LTE 0.10 INCHES THROUGHOUT UPR/MID MS VLY. STRONG
WAA SFC-925MB ALONG WITH HIGH EARLY MARCH SUN ANGLE/INSOLATION
WITH NEAR 10C/12 HR RISES AT 925MB BY 21C IN SWRN CWA. AS SUCH
HAVE GONE A BIT HIR WITH TEMPS TMRW...STRONG DIURNAL PLUS...MUTED
ON ERN CWA ALONG TRAILING PERIPHERY OF EXITING COLD POOL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE START OF THE WARMUP BEGINS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF A MAX TEMP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE USED TO MELT SNOW.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND THIS WILL ACT TO TEMPER THE WARM
UP.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MIDWEEK INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. GIVEN THE FROST DEPTH SNOW
MELT WILL CREATE ISOLATED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREA AND POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WATERWAYS FOR
ICE JAMS AS THE RIVERS BEGIN TO SHED ICE AND FLOWS INCREASE.

NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE WARM-UP AND THUS LITTLE CONTRIBUTION
TO THE WATER/FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IL WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN INDIANA
TONIGHT RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AS A
TROF MOVES INTO THE WRN GRTLKS RESULTING IN INCREASING SWLY WINDS
AND PSBLY MVFR CIGS TOWARD EVE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY/BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 052117
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
417 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
FEW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY EVENING.
EXTREMELY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

RAPID EWD EXODUS OF POS TILTED MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF THROUGH LWR
GRTLKS INTO ERN STATES FOLLOWED BY LESSER AMPLITUDE TROFFING INTO
WRN GRTLKS FRI TO SOLIDIFY DRY CP ARCTIC AIRMASS ACRS REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. INCRS WRLY FLOW UPWIND OF LK MI TO
AFFORD DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH ANY LINGERING FLURRIES SUCCUMBING
TO DEMISE NEAR SUNSET FOLLOWED BY RAPID LONGWAVE RADIATIONAL
LOSSES. AS SFC RIDGELINE SETTLES INTO OH VLY ON FRI AND TWO HIGH
BELTED CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACK WELL N-NW...ONE INTO FAR SRN HUDSON
BAY/NRN JAMES BAY THE OTHER TO LAKE WINNIPEG BY 00 UTC SAT.
EXTREME DRY UPSTREAM AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 20 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PWAT...LTE 0.10 INCHES THROUGHOUT UPR/MID MS VLY. STRONG
WAA SFC-925MB ALONG WITH HIGH EARLY MARCH SUN ANGLE/INSOLATION
WITH NEAR 10C/12 HR RISES AT 925MB BY 21C IN SWRN CWA. AS SUCH
HAVE GONE A BIT HIR WITH TEMPS TMRW...STRONG DIURNAL PLUS...MUTED
ON ERN CWA ALONG TRAILING PERIPHERY OF EXITING COLD POOL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE START OF THE WARMUP BEGINS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF A MAX TEMP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE USED TO MELT SNOW.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND THIS WILL ACT TO TEMPER THE WARM
UP.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MIDWEEK INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. GIVEN THE FROST DEPTH SNOW
MELT WILL CREATE ISOLATED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREA AND POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WATERWAYS FOR
ICE JAMS AS THE RIVERS BEGIN TO SHED ICE AND FLOWS INCREASE.

NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE WARM-UP AND THUS LITTLE CONTRIBUTION
TO THE WATER/FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR MET CONDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS UPSTREAM RIDGELINE
SETTLES THROUGH SRN GRTLKS AND INTO LWR OH VLY BY DAYBREAK.
RAMPED SRLY SFC FLOW ASSOCD WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF HIGH BELTED CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVG THRU SRN HUDSON BAY
LATE FRI AFTN. ELEVATED ERLY MARCH SUN ANGLE TO LIKELY AFFORD
MIXOUT OF GUSTS INTO LWR/MID 20KTS IN ERLY AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY/BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 052117
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
417 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A
FEW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY EVENING.
EXTREMELY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

RAPID EWD EXODUS OF POS TILTED MID TROPOSPHERIC TROF THROUGH LWR
GRTLKS INTO ERN STATES FOLLOWED BY LESSER AMPLITUDE TROFFING INTO
WRN GRTLKS FRI TO SOLIDIFY DRY CP ARCTIC AIRMASS ACRS REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. INCRS WRLY FLOW UPWIND OF LK MI TO
AFFORD DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH ANY LINGERING FLURRIES SUCCUMBING
TO DEMISE NEAR SUNSET FOLLOWED BY RAPID LONGWAVE RADIATIONAL
LOSSES. AS SFC RIDGELINE SETTLES INTO OH VLY ON FRI AND TWO HIGH
BELTED CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRACK WELL N-NW...ONE INTO FAR SRN HUDSON
BAY/NRN JAMES BAY THE OTHER TO LAKE WINNIPEG BY 00 UTC SAT.
EXTREME DRY UPSTREAM AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 20 PERCENT OF
NORMAL PWAT...LTE 0.10 INCHES THROUGHOUT UPR/MID MS VLY. STRONG
WAA SFC-925MB ALONG WITH HIGH EARLY MARCH SUN ANGLE/INSOLATION
WITH NEAR 10C/12 HR RISES AT 925MB BY 21C IN SWRN CWA. AS SUCH
HAVE GONE A BIT HIR WITH TEMPS TMRW...STRONG DIURNAL PLUS...MUTED
ON ERN CWA ALONG TRAILING PERIPHERY OF EXITING COLD POOL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE START OF THE WARMUP BEGINS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF A MAX TEMP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE USED TO MELT SNOW.
ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND THIS WILL ACT TO TEMPER THE WARM
UP.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MIDWEEK INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. GIVEN THE FROST DEPTH SNOW
MELT WILL CREATE ISOLATED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREA AND POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WATERWAYS FOR
ICE JAMS AS THE RIVERS BEGIN TO SHED ICE AND FLOWS INCREASE.

NO PRECIPITATION DURING THE WARM-UP AND THUS LITTLE CONTRIBUTION
TO THE WATER/FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR MET CONDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS UPSTREAM RIDGELINE
SETTLES THROUGH SRN GRTLKS AND INTO LWR OH VLY BY DAYBREAK.
RAMPED SRLY SFC FLOW ASSOCD WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF HIGH BELTED CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVG THRU SRN HUDSON BAY
LATE FRI AFTN. ELEVATED ERLY MARCH SUN ANGLE TO LIKELY AFFORD
MIXOUT OF GUSTS INTO LWR/MID 20KTS IN ERLY AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY/BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 051812
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
112 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH VERY DRY PROFILES WILL LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES TO ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. SOME EVIDENCE IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN PAST FEW HOURS
OF SOME SHARPENING OF LAND BREEZE/LAKE THERMAL TROUGHING BUT
CONTINUED LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY LARGE
MID LEVEL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO PROVIDE VERY
WEAK LAKE RESPONSE TO THIS POINT. PASSAGE OF AFOREMENTIONED
SYNOPTIC TROUGH IN THE 12Z-18Z TIMEFRAME MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BUT SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS LOW POPS. PASSAGE OF UPPER VORT
MAX LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME FLURRIES FURTHER
INLAND NORTHEAST INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ARCTIC AIRMASS
WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
SIDE WITH THE "WARMER" ENVELOPE OF MOS NUMBERS GIVEN PRESENCE
WELL MIXED NORTHWEST FLOW...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
LOWERING SNOW ALBEDOS. GIVEN ABOVE FACTORS...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 MOST LOCATIONS.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
BACK IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. UPPER
TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LAKE
ENHANCED LOW CLOUDS MAY SUPPORT PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EAST...BUT TRENDING TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. DESPITE CORE
OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING TO MIGRATE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS
IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW ZERO RANGE...WITH WIND CHILLS AS COLD
AS 10 BELOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD TRY TO START TO CLIMB OUT OF THE DEEP FREEZE FRIDAY...BUT
UPSTREAM SNOW COVER AND PROXIMITY OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL STILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FAVOR THE
NAM/MET WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
RISING TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO REBOUND AND CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOWS
MODELED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT HIGHEST OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA WHERE AMOUNTS ARE 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
MELTING SNOW TO CAUSE LOWLAND FLOODING AND RISES ON AREA RIVERS.
VIRTUALLY NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...SO THIS WILL HELP ALLEVIATE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE MAY BE SOME EVENTUAL ICE JAMS
ON THE RIVERS AS THE SNOW MELTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR MET CONDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS UPSTREAM RIDGELINE
SETTLES THROUGH SRN GRTLKS AND INTO LWR OH VLY BY DAYBREAK.
RAMPED SRLY SFC FLOW ASSOCD WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF HIGH BELTED CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVG THRU SRN HUDSON BAY
LATE FRI AFTN. ELEVATED ERLY MARCH SUN ANGLE TO LIKELY AFFORD
MIXOUT OF GUSTS INTO LWR/MID 20KTS IN ERLY AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 051812
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
112 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH VERY DRY PROFILES WILL LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES TO ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. SOME EVIDENCE IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN PAST FEW HOURS
OF SOME SHARPENING OF LAND BREEZE/LAKE THERMAL TROUGHING BUT
CONTINUED LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY LARGE
MID LEVEL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO PROVIDE VERY
WEAK LAKE RESPONSE TO THIS POINT. PASSAGE OF AFOREMENTIONED
SYNOPTIC TROUGH IN THE 12Z-18Z TIMEFRAME MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BUT SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS LOW POPS. PASSAGE OF UPPER VORT
MAX LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME FLURRIES FURTHER
INLAND NORTHEAST INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. ARCTIC AIRMASS
WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
SIDE WITH THE "WARMER" ENVELOPE OF MOS NUMBERS GIVEN PRESENCE
WELL MIXED NORTHWEST FLOW...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
LOWERING SNOW ALBEDOS. GIVEN ABOVE FACTORS...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 MOST LOCATIONS.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
BACK IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. UPPER
TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LAKE
ENHANCED LOW CLOUDS MAY SUPPORT PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EAST...BUT TRENDING TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. DESPITE CORE
OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING TO MIGRATE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS
IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW ZERO RANGE...WITH WIND CHILLS AS COLD
AS 10 BELOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD TRY TO START TO CLIMB OUT OF THE DEEP FREEZE FRIDAY...BUT
UPSTREAM SNOW COVER AND PROXIMITY OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL STILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FAVOR THE
NAM/MET WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
RISING TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO REBOUND AND CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOWS
MODELED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT HIGHEST OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA WHERE AMOUNTS ARE 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
MELTING SNOW TO CAUSE LOWLAND FLOODING AND RISES ON AREA RIVERS.
VIRTUALLY NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...SO THIS WILL HELP ALLEVIATE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE MAY BE SOME EVENTUAL ICE JAMS
ON THE RIVERS AS THE SNOW MELTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR MET CONDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS UPSTREAM RIDGELINE
SETTLES THROUGH SRN GRTLKS AND INTO LWR OH VLY BY DAYBREAK.
RAMPED SRLY SFC FLOW ASSOCD WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF HIGH BELTED CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVG THRU SRN HUDSON BAY
LATE FRI AFTN. ELEVATED ERLY MARCH SUN ANGLE TO LIKELY AFFORD
MIXOUT OF GUSTS INTO LWR/MID 20KTS IN ERLY AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 051152
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
652 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH VERY DRY PROFILES WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES
TO ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
SOME EVIDENCE IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN PAST FEW HOURS OF SOME
SHARPENING OF LAND BREEZE/LAKE THERMAL TROUGHING BUT CONTINUED LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY LARGE MID LEVEL DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO PROVIDE VERY WEAK LAKE RESPONSE TO
THIS POINT. PASSAGE OF AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC TROUGH IN THE 12Z-18Z
TIMEFRAME MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS BUT SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS LOW POPS.
PASSAGE OF UPPER VORT MAX LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME FLURRIES FURTHER INLAND NORTHEAST INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE "WARMER" ENVELOPE OF MOS
NUMBERS GIVEN PRESENCE WELL MIXED NORTHWEST FLOW...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LOWERING SNOW ALBEDOS. GIVEN ABOVE
FACTORS...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND
20 MOST LOCATIONS.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK
IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. UPPER TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LAKE ENHANCED LOW
CLOUDS MAY SUPPORT PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE EAST...BUT TRENDING TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. DESPITE CORE OF LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGHING TO MIGRATE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW ZERO RANGE...WITH WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 10 BELOW EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TRY TO START TO CLIMB OUT OF THE DEEP FREEZE FRIDAY...BUT UPSTREAM
SNOW COVER AND PROXIMITY OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL STILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FAVOR THE NAM/MET
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT RISING TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO REBOUND
AND CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. NATIONAL OPERATIONAL
HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOWS MODELED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
HIGHEST OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO EXTREME NORTHERN
INDIANA WHERE AMOUNTS ARE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MELTING SNOW TO CAUSE LOWLAND FLOODING
AND RISES ON AREA RIVERS. VIRTUALLY NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO THIS WILL HELP ALLEVIATE THE
FLOOD POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE MAY BE
SOME EVENTUAL ICE JAMS ON THE RIVERS AS THE SNOW MELTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE COMBINATION OF ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND A
SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
THROUGH MIDDAY. MVFR CIGS AROUND 3K FT ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT
KSBN...WITH OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD MIX OUT TO WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
EASTWARD MIGRATION OF CENTRAL CONUS ANTICYCLONE SHOULD RESULT IN
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 051152
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
652 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH VERY DRY PROFILES WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES
TO ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
SOME EVIDENCE IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN PAST FEW HOURS OF SOME
SHARPENING OF LAND BREEZE/LAKE THERMAL TROUGHING BUT CONTINUED LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY LARGE MID LEVEL DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO PROVIDE VERY WEAK LAKE RESPONSE TO
THIS POINT. PASSAGE OF AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC TROUGH IN THE 12Z-18Z
TIMEFRAME MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS BUT SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS LOW POPS.
PASSAGE OF UPPER VORT MAX LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME FLURRIES FURTHER INLAND NORTHEAST INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE "WARMER" ENVELOPE OF MOS
NUMBERS GIVEN PRESENCE WELL MIXED NORTHWEST FLOW...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LOWERING SNOW ALBEDOS. GIVEN ABOVE
FACTORS...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND
20 MOST LOCATIONS.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK
IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. UPPER TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LAKE ENHANCED LOW
CLOUDS MAY SUPPORT PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE EAST...BUT TRENDING TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. DESPITE CORE OF LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGHING TO MIGRATE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW ZERO RANGE...WITH WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 10 BELOW EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TRY TO START TO CLIMB OUT OF THE DEEP FREEZE FRIDAY...BUT UPSTREAM
SNOW COVER AND PROXIMITY OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL STILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FAVOR THE NAM/MET
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT RISING TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO REBOUND
AND CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. NATIONAL OPERATIONAL
HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOWS MODELED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
HIGHEST OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO EXTREME NORTHERN
INDIANA WHERE AMOUNTS ARE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MELTING SNOW TO CAUSE LOWLAND FLOODING
AND RISES ON AREA RIVERS. VIRTUALLY NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO THIS WILL HELP ALLEVIATE THE
FLOOD POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE MAY BE
SOME EVENTUAL ICE JAMS ON THE RIVERS AS THE SNOW MELTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE COMBINATION OF ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND A
SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
THROUGH MIDDAY. MVFR CIGS AROUND 3K FT ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT
KSBN...WITH OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD MIX OUT TO WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
EASTWARD MIGRATION OF CENTRAL CONUS ANTICYCLONE SHOULD RESULT IN
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 050941
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
441 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH VERY DRY PROFILES WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES
TO ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
SOME EVIDENCE IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN PAST FEW HOURS OF SOME
SHARPENING OF LAND BREEZE/LAKE THERMAL TROUGHING BUT CONTINUED LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY LARGE MID LEVEL DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO PROVIDE VERY WEAK LAKE RESPONSE TO
THIS POINT. PASSAGE OF AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC TROUGH IN THE 12Z-18Z
TIMEFRAME MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS BUT SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS LOW POPS.
PASSAGE OF UPPER VORT MAX LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME FLURRIES FURTHER INLAND NORTHEAST INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE "WARMER" ENVELOPE OF MOS
NUMBERS GIVEN PRESENCE WELL MIXED NORTHWEST FLOW...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LOWERING SNOW ALBEDOS. GIVEN ABOVE
FACTORS...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND
20 MOST LOCATIONS.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK
IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. UPPER TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LAKE ENHANCED LOW
CLOUDS MAY SUPPORT PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE EAST...BUT TRENDING TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. DESPITE CORE OF LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGHING TO MIGRATE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW ZERO RANGE...WITH WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 10 BELOW EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015


THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TRY TO START TO CLIMB OUT OF THE DEEP FREEZE FRIDAY...BUT UPSTREAM
SNOW COVER AND PROXIMITY OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL STILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FAVOR THE NAM/MET
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT RISING TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO REBOUND
AND CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. NATIONAL OPERATIONAL
HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOWS MODELED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
HIGHEST OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO EXTREME NORTHERN
INDIANA WHERE AMOUNTS ARE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MELTING SNOW TO CAUSE LOWLAND FLOODING
AND RISES ON AREA RIVERS. VIRTUALLY NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO THIS WILL HELP ALLEVIATE THE
FLOOD POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE MAY BE
SOME EVENTUAL ICE JAMS ON THE RIVERS AS THE SNOW MELTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SLIGHT VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
AND APPROACHING POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION
MAY YIELD SOME WEAK LAKE RESPONSE IN THE 10Z-16Z TIMEFRAME. VERY
DRY AIR ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT THIS RESPONSE
HOWEVER...AND HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO HIGHER END MVFR CIGS AROUND
3K FT DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON
THURSDAY...AND THEN EVENTUALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BEINGS TO SHIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 050941
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
441 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH VERY DRY PROFILES WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES
TO ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
SOME EVIDENCE IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN PAST FEW HOURS OF SOME
SHARPENING OF LAND BREEZE/LAKE THERMAL TROUGHING BUT CONTINUED LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY LARGE MID LEVEL DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO PROVIDE VERY WEAK LAKE RESPONSE TO
THIS POINT. PASSAGE OF AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC TROUGH IN THE 12Z-18Z
TIMEFRAME MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS BUT SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS LOW POPS.
PASSAGE OF UPPER VORT MAX LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME FLURRIES FURTHER INLAND NORTHEAST INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE "WARMER" ENVELOPE OF MOS
NUMBERS GIVEN PRESENCE WELL MIXED NORTHWEST FLOW...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LOWERING SNOW ALBEDOS. GIVEN ABOVE
FACTORS...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND
20 MOST LOCATIONS.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK
IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. UPPER TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LAKE ENHANCED LOW
CLOUDS MAY SUPPORT PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE EAST...BUT TRENDING TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. DESPITE CORE OF LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGHING TO MIGRATE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW ZERO RANGE...WITH WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 10 BELOW EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015


THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TRY TO START TO CLIMB OUT OF THE DEEP FREEZE FRIDAY...BUT UPSTREAM
SNOW COVER AND PROXIMITY OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL STILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FAVOR THE NAM/MET
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT RISING TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO REBOUND
AND CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. NATIONAL OPERATIONAL
HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOWS MODELED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
HIGHEST OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO EXTREME NORTHERN
INDIANA WHERE AMOUNTS ARE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MELTING SNOW TO CAUSE LOWLAND FLOODING
AND RISES ON AREA RIVERS. VIRTUALLY NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO THIS WILL HELP ALLEVIATE THE
FLOOD POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE MAY BE
SOME EVENTUAL ICE JAMS ON THE RIVERS AS THE SNOW MELTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SLIGHT VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
AND APPROACHING POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION
MAY YIELD SOME WEAK LAKE RESPONSE IN THE 10Z-16Z TIMEFRAME. VERY
DRY AIR ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT THIS RESPONSE
HOWEVER...AND HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO HIGHER END MVFR CIGS AROUND
3K FT DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON
THURSDAY...AND THEN EVENTUALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BEINGS TO SHIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 050941
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
441 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH VERY DRY PROFILES WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES
TO ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
SOME EVIDENCE IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN PAST FEW HOURS OF SOME
SHARPENING OF LAND BREEZE/LAKE THERMAL TROUGHING BUT CONTINUED LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY LARGE MID LEVEL DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO PROVIDE VERY WEAK LAKE RESPONSE TO
THIS POINT. PASSAGE OF AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC TROUGH IN THE 12Z-18Z
TIMEFRAME MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS BUT SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS LOW POPS.
PASSAGE OF UPPER VORT MAX LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME FLURRIES FURTHER INLAND NORTHEAST INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE "WARMER" ENVELOPE OF MOS
NUMBERS GIVEN PRESENCE WELL MIXED NORTHWEST FLOW...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LOWERING SNOW ALBEDOS. GIVEN ABOVE
FACTORS...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND
20 MOST LOCATIONS.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK
IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. UPPER TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LAKE ENHANCED LOW
CLOUDS MAY SUPPORT PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE EAST...BUT TRENDING TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. DESPITE CORE OF LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGHING TO MIGRATE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW ZERO RANGE...WITH WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 10 BELOW EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015


THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TRY TO START TO CLIMB OUT OF THE DEEP FREEZE FRIDAY...BUT UPSTREAM
SNOW COVER AND PROXIMITY OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL STILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FAVOR THE NAM/MET
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT RISING TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO REBOUND
AND CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. NATIONAL OPERATIONAL
HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOWS MODELED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
HIGHEST OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO EXTREME NORTHERN
INDIANA WHERE AMOUNTS ARE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MELTING SNOW TO CAUSE LOWLAND FLOODING
AND RISES ON AREA RIVERS. VIRTUALLY NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO THIS WILL HELP ALLEVIATE THE
FLOOD POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE MAY BE
SOME EVENTUAL ICE JAMS ON THE RIVERS AS THE SNOW MELTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SLIGHT VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
AND APPROACHING POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION
MAY YIELD SOME WEAK LAKE RESPONSE IN THE 10Z-16Z TIMEFRAME. VERY
DRY AIR ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT THIS RESPONSE
HOWEVER...AND HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO HIGHER END MVFR CIGS AROUND
3K FT DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON
THURSDAY...AND THEN EVENTUALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BEINGS TO SHIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 050941
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
441 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH VERY DRY PROFILES WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES
TO ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
SOME EVIDENCE IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN PAST FEW HOURS OF SOME
SHARPENING OF LAND BREEZE/LAKE THERMAL TROUGHING BUT CONTINUED LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY LARGE MID LEVEL DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO PROVIDE VERY WEAK LAKE RESPONSE TO
THIS POINT. PASSAGE OF AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC TROUGH IN THE 12Z-18Z
TIMEFRAME MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS BUT SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS LOW POPS.
PASSAGE OF UPPER VORT MAX LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME FLURRIES FURTHER INLAND NORTHEAST INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE "WARMER" ENVELOPE OF MOS
NUMBERS GIVEN PRESENCE WELL MIXED NORTHWEST FLOW...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LOWERING SNOW ALBEDOS. GIVEN ABOVE
FACTORS...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND
20 MOST LOCATIONS.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK
IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. UPPER TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LAKE ENHANCED LOW
CLOUDS MAY SUPPORT PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE EAST...BUT TRENDING TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. DESPITE CORE OF LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGHING TO MIGRATE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW ZERO RANGE...WITH WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 10 BELOW EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015


THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TRY TO START TO CLIMB OUT OF THE DEEP FREEZE FRIDAY...BUT UPSTREAM
SNOW COVER AND PROXIMITY OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL STILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FAVOR THE NAM/MET
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING LITTLE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT RISING TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO REBOUND
AND CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. NATIONAL OPERATIONAL
HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING CENTER SHOWS MODELED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
HIGHEST OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO EXTREME NORTHERN
INDIANA WHERE AMOUNTS ARE 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MELTING SNOW TO CAUSE LOWLAND FLOODING
AND RISES ON AREA RIVERS. VIRTUALLY NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO THIS WILL HELP ALLEVIATE THE
FLOOD POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE MAY BE
SOME EVENTUAL ICE JAMS ON THE RIVERS AS THE SNOW MELTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SLIGHT VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
AND APPROACHING POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION
MAY YIELD SOME WEAK LAKE RESPONSE IN THE 10Z-16Z TIMEFRAME. VERY
DRY AIR ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT THIS RESPONSE
HOWEVER...AND HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO HIGHER END MVFR CIGS AROUND
3K FT DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON
THURSDAY...AND THEN EVENTUALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BEINGS TO SHIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 050538
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1238 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER AS HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH OVER 6 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT IN THIS REGION.
ELSEWHERE AROUND THE REGION IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS MICHIGAN AND
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CENTRAL AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE VERY COLD FOR EARLY MARCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ROBUST DEEP LATITUDINAL POSITIVE TILTED LONGWAVE TROF SUPPORTING
EXTREME BAROCLINICITY FM NERN TX TO TN VALLEY. TROF TO REMAIN
POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH POTENT UPSTREAM KICKERS
FIRST ACRS NRN ALBERTA AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TOPPING RIDGE
AXIS INTO FAR NWRN BC. SUPPRESSION OF SRN STREAM TO MAINTAIN
PRIMARY SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS WELL TO SOUTH OF RGN.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE NOMINAL LAKE RESPONSE AS LK/8H
DIFFERENTIALS REACH TO NEAR 20C BY 06 UTC AMID 320-325 DEGREE
FETCH. LOW EQL SHOULD PRECLUDE ALL BUT SCT FLURRIES/NON
MEASURABLE OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT POP/MSRBL MENTION ON THU WITH
SLIGHTLY HIR DIFFERENTIALS AND PEAK LK INDUCED CAPES TO 350 J/KG.
CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY MID LEVEL STREAM PERSISTING SPCLY
SRN/SERN CWA PER WV IMAGERY...AFFORDS DIFFICULT MIN TEMP FCST
WITH BUST POTNL SKEWED STRONGLY TO WARM SIDE SHOULD BRKS FAIL TO
DVLP. BOTTOM TROF/INFLECTION OF ARCTIC AIRMASS EXPECTED THU/THU
NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF AXIS ACRS CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MODIFICATION OF AIRMASS BEGINS ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
FLATTENS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH AMERICA. EASTERN NAM TROF CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE LOWER 48. COLD AIR WILL BE PUSHED DEEPER INTO WESTERN NAM
WITH REAMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF ALONG THE DATELINE.

THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A PRONOUNCED WARMUP BEGINNING DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN MODELS...AS THE SNOW
MELTS.

INCREASED SUN ANGLE AND LESS SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REALLY BEING TO CLIMB MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FORTUNATELY...NO RAIN AND GRADUAL MELTING WILL KEEP FLOODING TO A
MINIMUM. LIKELY TO SEE SOME ICE FLOW/JAM FORMATION BY LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SLIGHT VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
AND APPROACHING POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION
MAY YIELD SOME WEAK LAKE RESPONSE IN THE 10Z-16Z TIMEFRAME. VERY
DRY AIR ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT THIS RESPONSE
HOWEVER...AND HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO HIGHER END MVFR CIGS AROUND
3K FT DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON
THURSDAY...AND THEN EVENTUALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BEINGS TO SHIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 050538
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1238 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER AS HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH OVER 6 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT IN THIS REGION.
ELSEWHERE AROUND THE REGION IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS MICHIGAN AND
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CENTRAL AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE VERY COLD FOR EARLY MARCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ROBUST DEEP LATITUDINAL POSITIVE TILTED LONGWAVE TROF SUPPORTING
EXTREME BAROCLINICITY FM NERN TX TO TN VALLEY. TROF TO REMAIN
POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH POTENT UPSTREAM KICKERS
FIRST ACRS NRN ALBERTA AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TOPPING RIDGE
AXIS INTO FAR NWRN BC. SUPPRESSION OF SRN STREAM TO MAINTAIN
PRIMARY SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS WELL TO SOUTH OF RGN.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE NOMINAL LAKE RESPONSE AS LK/8H
DIFFERENTIALS REACH TO NEAR 20C BY 06 UTC AMID 320-325 DEGREE
FETCH. LOW EQL SHOULD PRECLUDE ALL BUT SCT FLURRIES/NON
MEASURABLE OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT POP/MSRBL MENTION ON THU WITH
SLIGHTLY HIR DIFFERENTIALS AND PEAK LK INDUCED CAPES TO 350 J/KG.
CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY MID LEVEL STREAM PERSISTING SPCLY
SRN/SERN CWA PER WV IMAGERY...AFFORDS DIFFICULT MIN TEMP FCST
WITH BUST POTNL SKEWED STRONGLY TO WARM SIDE SHOULD BRKS FAIL TO
DVLP. BOTTOM TROF/INFLECTION OF ARCTIC AIRMASS EXPECTED THU/THU
NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF AXIS ACRS CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MODIFICATION OF AIRMASS BEGINS ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
FLATTENS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH AMERICA. EASTERN NAM TROF CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE LOWER 48. COLD AIR WILL BE PUSHED DEEPER INTO WESTERN NAM
WITH REAMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF ALONG THE DATELINE.

THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A PRONOUNCED WARMUP BEGINNING DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN MODELS...AS THE SNOW
MELTS.

INCREASED SUN ANGLE AND LESS SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REALLY BEING TO CLIMB MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FORTUNATELY...NO RAIN AND GRADUAL MELTING WILL KEEP FLOODING TO A
MINIMUM. LIKELY TO SEE SOME ICE FLOW/JAM FORMATION BY LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SLIGHT VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
AND APPROACHING POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION
MAY YIELD SOME WEAK LAKE RESPONSE IN THE 10Z-16Z TIMEFRAME. VERY
DRY AIR ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT THIS RESPONSE
HOWEVER...AND HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO HIGHER END MVFR CIGS AROUND
3K FT DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON
THURSDAY...AND THEN EVENTUALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BEINGS TO SHIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 050538
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1238 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER AS HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH OVER 6 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT IN THIS REGION.
ELSEWHERE AROUND THE REGION IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS MICHIGAN AND
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CENTRAL AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE VERY COLD FOR EARLY MARCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ROBUST DEEP LATITUDINAL POSITIVE TILTED LONGWAVE TROF SUPPORTING
EXTREME BAROCLINICITY FM NERN TX TO TN VALLEY. TROF TO REMAIN
POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH POTENT UPSTREAM KICKERS
FIRST ACRS NRN ALBERTA AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TOPPING RIDGE
AXIS INTO FAR NWRN BC. SUPPRESSION OF SRN STREAM TO MAINTAIN
PRIMARY SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS WELL TO SOUTH OF RGN.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE NOMINAL LAKE RESPONSE AS LK/8H
DIFFERENTIALS REACH TO NEAR 20C BY 06 UTC AMID 320-325 DEGREE
FETCH. LOW EQL SHOULD PRECLUDE ALL BUT SCT FLURRIES/NON
MEASURABLE OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT POP/MSRBL MENTION ON THU WITH
SLIGHTLY HIR DIFFERENTIALS AND PEAK LK INDUCED CAPES TO 350 J/KG.
CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY MID LEVEL STREAM PERSISTING SPCLY
SRN/SERN CWA PER WV IMAGERY...AFFORDS DIFFICULT MIN TEMP FCST
WITH BUST POTNL SKEWED STRONGLY TO WARM SIDE SHOULD BRKS FAIL TO
DVLP. BOTTOM TROF/INFLECTION OF ARCTIC AIRMASS EXPECTED THU/THU
NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF AXIS ACRS CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MODIFICATION OF AIRMASS BEGINS ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
FLATTENS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH AMERICA. EASTERN NAM TROF CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE LOWER 48. COLD AIR WILL BE PUSHED DEEPER INTO WESTERN NAM
WITH REAMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF ALONG THE DATELINE.

THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A PRONOUNCED WARMUP BEGINNING DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN MODELS...AS THE SNOW
MELTS.

INCREASED SUN ANGLE AND LESS SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REALLY BEING TO CLIMB MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FORTUNATELY...NO RAIN AND GRADUAL MELTING WILL KEEP FLOODING TO A
MINIMUM. LIKELY TO SEE SOME ICE FLOW/JAM FORMATION BY LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SLIGHT VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
AND APPROACHING POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION
MAY YIELD SOME WEAK LAKE RESPONSE IN THE 10Z-16Z TIMEFRAME. VERY
DRY AIR ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT THIS RESPONSE
HOWEVER...AND HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO HIGHER END MVFR CIGS AROUND
3K FT DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON
THURSDAY...AND THEN EVENTUALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BEINGS TO SHIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 050538
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1238 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER AS HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH OVER 6 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT IN THIS REGION.
ELSEWHERE AROUND THE REGION IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS MICHIGAN AND
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CENTRAL AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE VERY COLD FOR EARLY MARCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ROBUST DEEP LATITUDINAL POSITIVE TILTED LONGWAVE TROF SUPPORTING
EXTREME BAROCLINICITY FM NERN TX TO TN VALLEY. TROF TO REMAIN
POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH POTENT UPSTREAM KICKERS
FIRST ACRS NRN ALBERTA AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TOPPING RIDGE
AXIS INTO FAR NWRN BC. SUPPRESSION OF SRN STREAM TO MAINTAIN
PRIMARY SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS WELL TO SOUTH OF RGN.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE NOMINAL LAKE RESPONSE AS LK/8H
DIFFERENTIALS REACH TO NEAR 20C BY 06 UTC AMID 320-325 DEGREE
FETCH. LOW EQL SHOULD PRECLUDE ALL BUT SCT FLURRIES/NON
MEASURABLE OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT POP/MSRBL MENTION ON THU WITH
SLIGHTLY HIR DIFFERENTIALS AND PEAK LK INDUCED CAPES TO 350 J/KG.
CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY MID LEVEL STREAM PERSISTING SPCLY
SRN/SERN CWA PER WV IMAGERY...AFFORDS DIFFICULT MIN TEMP FCST
WITH BUST POTNL SKEWED STRONGLY TO WARM SIDE SHOULD BRKS FAIL TO
DVLP. BOTTOM TROF/INFLECTION OF ARCTIC AIRMASS EXPECTED THU/THU
NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF AXIS ACRS CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MODIFICATION OF AIRMASS BEGINS ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
FLATTENS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH AMERICA. EASTERN NAM TROF CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE LOWER 48. COLD AIR WILL BE PUSHED DEEPER INTO WESTERN NAM
WITH REAMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF ALONG THE DATELINE.

THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A PRONOUNCED WARMUP BEGINNING DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN MODELS...AS THE SNOW
MELTS.

INCREASED SUN ANGLE AND LESS SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REALLY BEING TO CLIMB MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FORTUNATELY...NO RAIN AND GRADUAL MELTING WILL KEEP FLOODING TO A
MINIMUM. LIKELY TO SEE SOME ICE FLOW/JAM FORMATION BY LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SLIGHT VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
AND APPROACHING POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION
MAY YIELD SOME WEAK LAKE RESPONSE IN THE 10Z-16Z TIMEFRAME. VERY
DRY AIR ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT THIS RESPONSE
HOWEVER...AND HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO HIGHER END MVFR CIGS AROUND
3K FT DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON
THURSDAY...AND THEN EVENTUALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BEINGS TO SHIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 042053
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
353 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER AS HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH OVER 6 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT IN THIS REGION.
ELSEWHERE AROUND THE REGION IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS MICHIGAN AND
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CENTRAL AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE VERY COLD FOR EARLY MARCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ROBUST DEEP LATITUDINAL POSITIVE TILTED LONGWAVE TROF SUPPORTING
EXTREME BAROCLINICITY FM NERN TX TO TN VALLEY. TROF TO REMAIN
POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH POTENT UPSTREAM KICKERS
FIRST ACRS NRN ALBERTA AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TOPPING RIDGE
AXIS INTO FAR NWRN BC. SUPPRESSION OF SRN STREAM TO MAINTAIN
PRIMARY SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS WELL TO SOUTH OF RGN.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE NOMINAL LAKE RESPONSE AS LK/8H
DIFFERENTIALS REACH TO NEAR 20C BY 06 UTC AMID 320-325 DEGREE
FETCH. LOW EQL SHOULD PRECLUDE ALL BUT SCT FLURRIES/NON
MEASURABLE OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT POP/MSRBL MENTION ON THU WITH
SLIGHTLY HIR DIFFERENTIALS AND PEAK LK INDUCED CAPES TO 350 J/KG.
CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY MID LEVEL STREAM PERSISTING SPCLY
SRN/SERN CWA PER WV IMAGERY...AFFORDS DIFFICULT MIN TEMP FCST
WITH BUST POTNL SKEWED STRONGLY TO WARM SIDE SHOULD BRKS FAIL TO
DVLP. BOTTOM TROF/INFLECTION OF ARCTIC AIRMASS EXPECTED THU/THU
NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF AXIS ACRS CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MODIFICATION OF AIRMASS BEGINS ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
FLATTENS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH AMERICA. EASTERN NAM TROF CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE LOWER 48. COLD AIR WILL BE PUSHED DEEPER INTO WESTERN NAM
WITH REAMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF ALONG THE DATELINE.

THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A PRONOUNCED WARMUP BEGINNING DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN MODELS...AS THE SNOW
MELTS.

INCREASED SUN ANGLE AND LESS SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REALLY BEING TO CLIMB MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FORTUNATELY...NO RAIN AND GRAUAL MELTING WILL KEEP FLOODING TO A
MINIMUM. LIKELY TO SEE SOME ICE FLOW/JAM FORMATION BY LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR MET CIGS ANTCIPATED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PD AS CONTD LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTS. NRN
FRINGE OF LESSER/SECONDARY MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS COULD BRING
AFTN/EVE FLURRIES...THOUGH OF NO VSBY IMPACT. BETTER CHC FOR
NOMINAL LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE INVOF KSBN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THU,..THOUGH AGAIN LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT TO VSBY ANTICIPATE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 042053
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
353 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER AS HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH OVER 6 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT IN THIS REGION.
ELSEWHERE AROUND THE REGION IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS MICHIGAN AND
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CENTRAL AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE VERY COLD FOR EARLY MARCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ROBUST DEEP LATITUDINAL POSITIVE TILTED LONGWAVE TROF SUPPORTING
EXTREME BAROCLINICITY FM NERN TX TO TN VALLEY. TROF TO REMAIN
POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH POTENT UPSTREAM KICKERS
FIRST ACRS NRN ALBERTA AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TOPPING RIDGE
AXIS INTO FAR NWRN BC. SUPPRESSION OF SRN STREAM TO MAINTAIN
PRIMARY SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS WELL TO SOUTH OF RGN.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE NOMINAL LAKE RESPONSE AS LK/8H
DIFFERENTIALS REACH TO NEAR 20C BY 06 UTC AMID 320-325 DEGREE
FETCH. LOW EQL SHOULD PRECLUDE ALL BUT SCT FLURRIES/NON
MEASURABLE OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT POP/MSRBL MENTION ON THU WITH
SLIGHTLY HIR DIFFERENTIALS AND PEAK LK INDUCED CAPES TO 350 J/KG.
CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY MID LEVEL STREAM PERSISTING SPCLY
SRN/SERN CWA PER WV IMAGERY...AFFORDS DIFFICULT MIN TEMP FCST
WITH BUST POTNL SKEWED STRONGLY TO WARM SIDE SHOULD BRKS FAIL TO
DVLP. BOTTOM TROF/INFLECTION OF ARCTIC AIRMASS EXPECTED THU/THU
NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF AXIS ACRS CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MODIFICATION OF AIRMASS BEGINS ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
FLATTENS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH AMERICA. EASTERN NAM TROF CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE LOWER 48. COLD AIR WILL BE PUSHED DEEPER INTO WESTERN NAM
WITH REAMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF ALONG THE DATELINE.

THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A PRONOUNCED WARMUP BEGINNING DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN MODELS...AS THE SNOW
MELTS.

INCREASED SUN ANGLE AND LESS SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REALLY BEING TO CLIMB MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FORTUNATELY...NO RAIN AND GRAUAL MELTING WILL KEEP FLOODING TO A
MINIMUM. LIKELY TO SEE SOME ICE FLOW/JAM FORMATION BY LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR MET CIGS ANTCIPATED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PD AS CONTD LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTS. NRN
FRINGE OF LESSER/SECONDARY MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS COULD BRING
AFTN/EVE FLURRIES...THOUGH OF NO VSBY IMPACT. BETTER CHC FOR
NOMINAL LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE INVOF KSBN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THU,..THOUGH AGAIN LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT TO VSBY ANTICIPATE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 042053
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
353 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER AS HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH OVER 6 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT IN THIS REGION.
ELSEWHERE AROUND THE REGION IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS MICHIGAN AND
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CENTRAL AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE VERY COLD FOR EARLY MARCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ROBUST DEEP LATITUDINAL POSITIVE TILTED LONGWAVE TROF SUPPORTING
EXTREME BAROCLINICITY FM NERN TX TO TN VALLEY. TROF TO REMAIN
POSITIVE TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH POTENT UPSTREAM KICKERS
FIRST ACRS NRN ALBERTA AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TOPPING RIDGE
AXIS INTO FAR NWRN BC. SUPPRESSION OF SRN STREAM TO MAINTAIN
PRIMARY SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS WELL TO SOUTH OF RGN.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE NOMINAL LAKE RESPONSE AS LK/8H
DIFFERENTIALS REACH TO NEAR 20C BY 06 UTC AMID 320-325 DEGREE
FETCH. LOW EQL SHOULD PRECLUDE ALL BUT SCT FLURRIES/NON
MEASURABLE OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT POP/MSRBL MENTION ON THU WITH
SLIGHTLY HIR DIFFERENTIALS AND PEAK LK INDUCED CAPES TO 350 J/KG.
CLOUD COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY MID LEVEL STREAM PERSISTING SPCLY
SRN/SERN CWA PER WV IMAGERY...AFFORDS DIFFICULT MIN TEMP FCST
WITH BUST POTNL SKEWED STRONGLY TO WARM SIDE SHOULD BRKS FAIL TO
DVLP. BOTTOM TROF/INFLECTION OF ARCTIC AIRMASS EXPECTED THU/THU
NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF AXIS ACRS CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MODIFICATION OF AIRMASS BEGINS ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
FLATTENS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH AMERICA. EASTERN NAM TROF CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED
OVER THE LOWER 48. COLD AIR WILL BE PUSHED DEEPER INTO WESTERN NAM
WITH REAMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF ALONG THE DATELINE.

THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A PRONOUNCED WARMUP BEGINNING DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN MODELS...AS THE SNOW
MELTS.

INCREASED SUN ANGLE AND LESS SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REALLY BEING TO CLIMB MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FORTUNATELY...NO RAIN AND GRAUAL MELTING WILL KEEP FLOODING TO A
MINIMUM. LIKELY TO SEE SOME ICE FLOW/JAM FORMATION BY LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR MET CIGS ANTCIPATED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PD AS CONTD LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTS. NRN
FRINGE OF LESSER/SECONDARY MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS COULD BRING
AFTN/EVE FLURRIES...THOUGH OF NO VSBY IMPACT. BETTER CHC FOR
NOMINAL LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE INVOF KSBN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THU,..THOUGH AGAIN LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT TO VSBY ANTICIPATE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 041746
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1246 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1133 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SOME SNOW MAY FALL ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD FALL IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO FAR NORTHERN
INDIANA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH
WILL ALSO USHER IN COLDER AIR. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
30S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE POSITIVE
DIGITS IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER TEENS NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURE TRENDS GIVEN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
TODAY AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

AXIS OF DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TRANSLATING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE AT LEAST A TEMPORARY LULL IN LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WATER
VAPOR/RAP ANALYSES DEPICT A LOW AMPLITUDE...HIGHLY SHEARED VORT
MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL FGEN AXIS ALONG
WITH A BRIEF NORTHWARD SURGE OF MORE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. 03Z SREF POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALSO SEEM TO KEY IN ON THIS FEATURE WITH
TEMPORARY UPSWING IN THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
WHILE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WOULD NOT SUPPORT -SN WITH LACK
OF SATURATION ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING
AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK COULD PROVIDE SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM TO
INTRODUCE A LOW END CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW. NOT
MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL FOCUS THESE LOW
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE A CHALLENGE GIVEN SKY COVER AND ADVECTION CONSIDERATIONS. LOW
CLOUDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY LIMITED TEMP DROPS ANTICIPATED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PERHAPS SOME WINDOW OF CLEARING MAY EXIST
TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS THAT COULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTIVE SURGE TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON AS BROADER POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A SHARPER TEMPERATURE DROP LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REACH MAX TEMPS THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUD DECK
AND TIMING OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH TO BECOME ENTRENCHED TONIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME INCREASE OF AT
LEAST SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ABOVE THE INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL THREAT. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST FETCH LAKE EFFECT PRONE
AREAS TONIGHT. LACK OF DECOUPLING AND POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS
PERSISTING SHOULD KEEP MINS IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 12 ABOVE RANGE
TONIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ONE LAST ARCTIC SURGE OF BITTERLY COLD WILL INVADE THE AREA
BEFORE THE THE NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL
AND ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. INHERENT CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROFS THAT MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AND BRIEFLY TAP SOME COOLER AIR. VERY COLD AIR HAS BEEN OVER THE
AREA FOR NEARLY 3 WEEKS WITH THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT FT WAYNE
ONLY 11.5 SINCE FEBRUARY 12TH. DURING THIS PERIOD...NCEP
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS HAVE HAD A MARKED COOL BIAS IN THE
COLD AIR WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE COLDEST RECORD
COLD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...MARCH 5TH IN OVER A HUNDRED YEARS ARE
20 AND 17 FOR SOUTH BEND AND FORT WAYNE RESPECTIVELY.
THEREFORE...WITH ALL OF THIS CONSIDERED...HAVE GONE 4 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NCEP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THURSDAY. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...RECORD LOWS ARE -7 AND -4 AT SOUTH BEND AND FT WAYNE
RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW ZERO. HAVE
LOWERED LOWS 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO COME IN LINE CLOSER TO THESE
RECORD LOWS GIVEN RECENT HUGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN THIS COLD
PATTERN. OTHERWISE...A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE WITH
FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES...BUT LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING
THIS WEEKEND. DEEP SNOW COVER MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT THE WARMUP
OVER NORTHERN AREAS...SO WENT A LITTLE COLDER OVER FAR NORTHERN
INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. KEPT CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT
FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
UPPER TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR MET CIGS ANTCIPATED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PD AS CONTD LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTS. NRN
FRINGE OF LESSER/SECONDARY MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS COULD BRING
AFTN/EVE FLURRIES...THOUGH OF NO VSBY IMPACT. BETTER CHC FOR
NOMINAL LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE INVOF KSBN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THU,..THOUGH AGAIN LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT TO VSBY ANTICIPATE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 041746
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1246 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1133 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SOME SNOW MAY FALL ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD FALL IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO FAR NORTHERN
INDIANA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH
WILL ALSO USHER IN COLDER AIR. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
30S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE POSITIVE
DIGITS IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER TEENS NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURE TRENDS GIVEN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
TODAY AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

AXIS OF DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TRANSLATING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE AT LEAST A TEMPORARY LULL IN LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WATER
VAPOR/RAP ANALYSES DEPICT A LOW AMPLITUDE...HIGHLY SHEARED VORT
MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL FGEN AXIS ALONG
WITH A BRIEF NORTHWARD SURGE OF MORE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. 03Z SREF POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALSO SEEM TO KEY IN ON THIS FEATURE WITH
TEMPORARY UPSWING IN THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
WHILE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WOULD NOT SUPPORT -SN WITH LACK
OF SATURATION ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING
AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK COULD PROVIDE SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM TO
INTRODUCE A LOW END CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW. NOT
MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL FOCUS THESE LOW
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE A CHALLENGE GIVEN SKY COVER AND ADVECTION CONSIDERATIONS. LOW
CLOUDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY LIMITED TEMP DROPS ANTICIPATED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PERHAPS SOME WINDOW OF CLEARING MAY EXIST
TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS THAT COULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTIVE SURGE TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON AS BROADER POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A SHARPER TEMPERATURE DROP LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REACH MAX TEMPS THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUD DECK
AND TIMING OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH TO BECOME ENTRENCHED TONIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME INCREASE OF AT
LEAST SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ABOVE THE INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL THREAT. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST FETCH LAKE EFFECT PRONE
AREAS TONIGHT. LACK OF DECOUPLING AND POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS
PERSISTING SHOULD KEEP MINS IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 12 ABOVE RANGE
TONIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ONE LAST ARCTIC SURGE OF BITTERLY COLD WILL INVADE THE AREA
BEFORE THE THE NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL
AND ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. INHERENT CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROFS THAT MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AND BRIEFLY TAP SOME COOLER AIR. VERY COLD AIR HAS BEEN OVER THE
AREA FOR NEARLY 3 WEEKS WITH THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT FT WAYNE
ONLY 11.5 SINCE FEBRUARY 12TH. DURING THIS PERIOD...NCEP
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS HAVE HAD A MARKED COOL BIAS IN THE
COLD AIR WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE COLDEST RECORD
COLD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...MARCH 5TH IN OVER A HUNDRED YEARS ARE
20 AND 17 FOR SOUTH BEND AND FORT WAYNE RESPECTIVELY.
THEREFORE...WITH ALL OF THIS CONSIDERED...HAVE GONE 4 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NCEP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THURSDAY. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...RECORD LOWS ARE -7 AND -4 AT SOUTH BEND AND FT WAYNE
RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW ZERO. HAVE
LOWERED LOWS 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO COME IN LINE CLOSER TO THESE
RECORD LOWS GIVEN RECENT HUGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN THIS COLD
PATTERN. OTHERWISE...A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE WITH
FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES...BUT LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING
THIS WEEKEND. DEEP SNOW COVER MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT THE WARMUP
OVER NORTHERN AREAS...SO WENT A LITTLE COLDER OVER FAR NORTHERN
INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. KEPT CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT
FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
UPPER TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR MET CIGS ANTCIPATED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PD AS CONTD LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTS. NRN
FRINGE OF LESSER/SECONDARY MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS COULD BRING
AFTN/EVE FLURRIES...THOUGH OF NO VSBY IMPACT. BETTER CHC FOR
NOMINAL LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE INVOF KSBN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THU,..THOUGH AGAIN LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT TO VSBY ANTICIPATE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 041746
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1246 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1133 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SOME SNOW MAY FALL ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD FALL IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO FAR NORTHERN
INDIANA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH
WILL ALSO USHER IN COLDER AIR. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
30S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE POSITIVE
DIGITS IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER TEENS NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURE TRENDS GIVEN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
TODAY AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

AXIS OF DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TRANSLATING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE AT LEAST A TEMPORARY LULL IN LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WATER
VAPOR/RAP ANALYSES DEPICT A LOW AMPLITUDE...HIGHLY SHEARED VORT
MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL FGEN AXIS ALONG
WITH A BRIEF NORTHWARD SURGE OF MORE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. 03Z SREF POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALSO SEEM TO KEY IN ON THIS FEATURE WITH
TEMPORARY UPSWING IN THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
WHILE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WOULD NOT SUPPORT -SN WITH LACK
OF SATURATION ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING
AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK COULD PROVIDE SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM TO
INTRODUCE A LOW END CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW. NOT
MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL FOCUS THESE LOW
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE A CHALLENGE GIVEN SKY COVER AND ADVECTION CONSIDERATIONS. LOW
CLOUDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY LIMITED TEMP DROPS ANTICIPATED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PERHAPS SOME WINDOW OF CLEARING MAY EXIST
TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS THAT COULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTIVE SURGE TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON AS BROADER POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A SHARPER TEMPERATURE DROP LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REACH MAX TEMPS THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUD DECK
AND TIMING OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH TO BECOME ENTRENCHED TONIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME INCREASE OF AT
LEAST SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ABOVE THE INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL THREAT. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST FETCH LAKE EFFECT PRONE
AREAS TONIGHT. LACK OF DECOUPLING AND POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS
PERSISTING SHOULD KEEP MINS IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 12 ABOVE RANGE
TONIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ONE LAST ARCTIC SURGE OF BITTERLY COLD WILL INVADE THE AREA
BEFORE THE THE NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL
AND ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. INHERENT CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROFS THAT MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AND BRIEFLY TAP SOME COOLER AIR. VERY COLD AIR HAS BEEN OVER THE
AREA FOR NEARLY 3 WEEKS WITH THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT FT WAYNE
ONLY 11.5 SINCE FEBRUARY 12TH. DURING THIS PERIOD...NCEP
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS HAVE HAD A MARKED COOL BIAS IN THE
COLD AIR WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE COLDEST RECORD
COLD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...MARCH 5TH IN OVER A HUNDRED YEARS ARE
20 AND 17 FOR SOUTH BEND AND FORT WAYNE RESPECTIVELY.
THEREFORE...WITH ALL OF THIS CONSIDERED...HAVE GONE 4 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NCEP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THURSDAY. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...RECORD LOWS ARE -7 AND -4 AT SOUTH BEND AND FT WAYNE
RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW ZERO. HAVE
LOWERED LOWS 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO COME IN LINE CLOSER TO THESE
RECORD LOWS GIVEN RECENT HUGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN THIS COLD
PATTERN. OTHERWISE...A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE WITH
FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES...BUT LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING
THIS WEEKEND. DEEP SNOW COVER MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT THE WARMUP
OVER NORTHERN AREAS...SO WENT A LITTLE COLDER OVER FAR NORTHERN
INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. KEPT CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT
FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
UPPER TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR MET CIGS ANTCIPATED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PD AS CONTD LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTS. NRN
FRINGE OF LESSER/SECONDARY MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS COULD BRING
AFTN/EVE FLURRIES...THOUGH OF NO VSBY IMPACT. BETTER CHC FOR
NOMINAL LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE INVOF KSBN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THU,..THOUGH AGAIN LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT TO VSBY ANTICIPATE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 041746
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1246 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1133 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SOME SNOW MAY FALL ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD FALL IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO FAR NORTHERN
INDIANA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH
WILL ALSO USHER IN COLDER AIR. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
30S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE POSITIVE
DIGITS IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER TEENS NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURE TRENDS GIVEN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
TODAY AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

AXIS OF DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TRANSLATING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE AT LEAST A TEMPORARY LULL IN LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WATER
VAPOR/RAP ANALYSES DEPICT A LOW AMPLITUDE...HIGHLY SHEARED VORT
MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL FGEN AXIS ALONG
WITH A BRIEF NORTHWARD SURGE OF MORE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. 03Z SREF POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALSO SEEM TO KEY IN ON THIS FEATURE WITH
TEMPORARY UPSWING IN THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
WHILE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WOULD NOT SUPPORT -SN WITH LACK
OF SATURATION ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING
AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK COULD PROVIDE SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM TO
INTRODUCE A LOW END CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW. NOT
MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL FOCUS THESE LOW
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE A CHALLENGE GIVEN SKY COVER AND ADVECTION CONSIDERATIONS. LOW
CLOUDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY LIMITED TEMP DROPS ANTICIPATED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PERHAPS SOME WINDOW OF CLEARING MAY EXIST
TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS THAT COULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTIVE SURGE TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON AS BROADER POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A SHARPER TEMPERATURE DROP LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REACH MAX TEMPS THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUD DECK
AND TIMING OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH TO BECOME ENTRENCHED TONIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME INCREASE OF AT
LEAST SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ABOVE THE INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL THREAT. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST FETCH LAKE EFFECT PRONE
AREAS TONIGHT. LACK OF DECOUPLING AND POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS
PERSISTING SHOULD KEEP MINS IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 12 ABOVE RANGE
TONIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ONE LAST ARCTIC SURGE OF BITTERLY COLD WILL INVADE THE AREA
BEFORE THE THE NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL
AND ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. INHERENT CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROFS THAT MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AND BRIEFLY TAP SOME COOLER AIR. VERY COLD AIR HAS BEEN OVER THE
AREA FOR NEARLY 3 WEEKS WITH THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT FT WAYNE
ONLY 11.5 SINCE FEBRUARY 12TH. DURING THIS PERIOD...NCEP
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS HAVE HAD A MARKED COOL BIAS IN THE
COLD AIR WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE COLDEST RECORD
COLD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...MARCH 5TH IN OVER A HUNDRED YEARS ARE
20 AND 17 FOR SOUTH BEND AND FORT WAYNE RESPECTIVELY.
THEREFORE...WITH ALL OF THIS CONSIDERED...HAVE GONE 4 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NCEP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THURSDAY. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...RECORD LOWS ARE -7 AND -4 AT SOUTH BEND AND FT WAYNE
RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW ZERO. HAVE
LOWERED LOWS 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO COME IN LINE CLOSER TO THESE
RECORD LOWS GIVEN RECENT HUGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN THIS COLD
PATTERN. OTHERWISE...A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE WITH
FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES...BUT LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING
THIS WEEKEND. DEEP SNOW COVER MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT THE WARMUP
OVER NORTHERN AREAS...SO WENT A LITTLE COLDER OVER FAR NORTHERN
INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. KEPT CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT
FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
UPPER TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR MET CIGS ANTCIPATED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PD AS CONTD LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTS. NRN
FRINGE OF LESSER/SECONDARY MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS COULD BRING
AFTN/EVE FLURRIES...THOUGH OF NO VSBY IMPACT. BETTER CHC FOR
NOMINAL LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE INVOF KSBN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THU,..THOUGH AGAIN LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT TO VSBY ANTICIPATE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 041658
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1133 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SOME SNOW MAY FALL ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD FALL IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO FAR NORTHERN
INDIANA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH
WILL ALSO USHER IN COLDER AIR. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
30S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE POSITIVE
DIGITS IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER TEENS NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURE TRENDS GIVEN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
TODAY AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

AXIS OF DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TRANSLATING TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
AT LEAST A TEMPORARY LULL IN LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR/RAP ANALYSES
DEPICT A LOW AMPLITUDE...HIGHLY SHEARED VORT MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL FGEN AXIS ALONG WITH A BRIEF NORTHWARD SURGE
OF MORE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST. 03Z SREF POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALSO SEEM TO KEY IN
ON THIS FEATURE WITH TEMPORARY UPSWING IN THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WOULD NOT SUPPORT
-SN WITH LACK OF SATURATION ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...MID LEVEL FGEN
FORCING AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK COULD PROVIDE SEEDER FEEDER
MECHANISM TO INTRODUCE A LOW END CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL FOCUS
THESE LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
A CHALLENGE GIVEN SKY COVER AND ADVECTION CONSIDERATIONS. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY LIMITED TEMP DROPS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. PERHAPS SOME WINDOW OF CLEARING MAY EXIST TOWARD
DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS THAT COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTIVE SURGE TO
WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AS BROADER
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SHARPER TEMPERATURE DROP
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH MAX TEMPS
THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUD DECK AND TIMING OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH TO BECOME ENTRENCHED TONIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME INCREASE OF AT LEAST
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
ABOVE THE INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL THREAT. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST FETCH LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS
TONIGHT. LACK OF DECOUPLING AND POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING
SHOULD KEEP MINS IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 12 ABOVE RANGE TONIGHT...WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ONE LAST ARCTIC SURGE OF BITTERLY COLD WILL INVADE THE AREA BEFORE
THE THE NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL AND ALLOWS
TEMPERATURES TO  RECOVER TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INHERENT CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS THAT
MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND BRIEFLY TAP SOME
COOLER AIR. VERY COLD AIR HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR NEARLY 3 WEEKS
WITH THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT FT WAYNE ONLY 11.5 SINCE FEBRUARY
12TH. DURING THIS PERIOD...NCEP TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS HAVE
HAD A MARKED COOL BIAS IN THE COLD AIR WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE COLDEST RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...MARCH 5TH IN
OVER A HUNDRED YEARS ARE 20 AND 17 FOR SOUTH BEND AND FORT WAYNE
RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...WITH ALL OF THIS CONSIDERED...HAVE GONE 4
TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NCEP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THURSDAY. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...RECORD LOWS ARE -7 AND -4 AT SOUTH BEND AND FT WAYNE
RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW ZERO. HAVE
LOWERED LOWS 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO COME IN LINE CLOSER TO THESE RECORD
LOWS GIVEN RECENT HUGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN THIS COLD PATTERN.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE WITH FAVORABLE DELTA T
VALUES...BUT LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS WEEKEND. DEEP SNOW
COVER MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT THE WARMUP OVER NORTHERN AREAS...SO WENT
A LITTLE COLDER OVER FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. KEPT CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

POST FRONTAL DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL INVERSION SHOULD SUPPORT
CONTINUED MVFR CIGS HOWEVER...GENERALLY IN THE 2-3K FT RANGE.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF CIGS BLO 2K FT FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE 12Z TAFS. REINFORCING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION
THIS EVENING WITH SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY
NEED TO ASSESS POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT
KSBN...WHICH COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS TONIGHT. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
WEST/NORTHWEST GUSTS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVENING.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 041658
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1133 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SOME SNOW MAY FALL ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD FALL IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO FAR NORTHERN
INDIANA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH
WILL ALSO USHER IN COLDER AIR. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
30S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE POSITIVE
DIGITS IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER TEENS NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURE TRENDS GIVEN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
TODAY AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

AXIS OF DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TRANSLATING TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
AT LEAST A TEMPORARY LULL IN LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR/RAP ANALYSES
DEPICT A LOW AMPLITUDE...HIGHLY SHEARED VORT MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL FGEN AXIS ALONG WITH A BRIEF NORTHWARD SURGE
OF MORE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST. 03Z SREF POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALSO SEEM TO KEY IN
ON THIS FEATURE WITH TEMPORARY UPSWING IN THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WOULD NOT SUPPORT
-SN WITH LACK OF SATURATION ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...MID LEVEL FGEN
FORCING AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK COULD PROVIDE SEEDER FEEDER
MECHANISM TO INTRODUCE A LOW END CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL FOCUS
THESE LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
A CHALLENGE GIVEN SKY COVER AND ADVECTION CONSIDERATIONS. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY LIMITED TEMP DROPS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. PERHAPS SOME WINDOW OF CLEARING MAY EXIST TOWARD
DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS THAT COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTIVE SURGE TO
WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AS BROADER
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SHARPER TEMPERATURE DROP
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH MAX TEMPS
THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUD DECK AND TIMING OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH TO BECOME ENTRENCHED TONIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME INCREASE OF AT LEAST
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
ABOVE THE INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL THREAT. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST FETCH LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS
TONIGHT. LACK OF DECOUPLING AND POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING
SHOULD KEEP MINS IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 12 ABOVE RANGE TONIGHT...WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ONE LAST ARCTIC SURGE OF BITTERLY COLD WILL INVADE THE AREA BEFORE
THE THE NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL AND ALLOWS
TEMPERATURES TO  RECOVER TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INHERENT CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS THAT
MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND BRIEFLY TAP SOME
COOLER AIR. VERY COLD AIR HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR NEARLY 3 WEEKS
WITH THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT FT WAYNE ONLY 11.5 SINCE FEBRUARY
12TH. DURING THIS PERIOD...NCEP TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS HAVE
HAD A MARKED COOL BIAS IN THE COLD AIR WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE COLDEST RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...MARCH 5TH IN
OVER A HUNDRED YEARS ARE 20 AND 17 FOR SOUTH BEND AND FORT WAYNE
RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...WITH ALL OF THIS CONSIDERED...HAVE GONE 4
TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NCEP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THURSDAY. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...RECORD LOWS ARE -7 AND -4 AT SOUTH BEND AND FT WAYNE
RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW ZERO. HAVE
LOWERED LOWS 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO COME IN LINE CLOSER TO THESE RECORD
LOWS GIVEN RECENT HUGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN THIS COLD PATTERN.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE WITH FAVORABLE DELTA T
VALUES...BUT LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS WEEKEND. DEEP SNOW
COVER MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT THE WARMUP OVER NORTHERN AREAS...SO WENT
A LITTLE COLDER OVER FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. KEPT CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

POST FRONTAL DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL INVERSION SHOULD SUPPORT
CONTINUED MVFR CIGS HOWEVER...GENERALLY IN THE 2-3K FT RANGE.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF CIGS BLO 2K FT FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE 12Z TAFS. REINFORCING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION
THIS EVENING WITH SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY
NEED TO ASSESS POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT
KSBN...WHICH COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS TONIGHT. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
WEST/NORTHWEST GUSTS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVENING.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 041658
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1133 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SOME SNOW MAY FALL ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD FALL IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO FAR NORTHERN
INDIANA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH
WILL ALSO USHER IN COLDER AIR. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
30S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE POSITIVE
DIGITS IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER TEENS NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURE TRENDS GIVEN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
TODAY AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

AXIS OF DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TRANSLATING TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
AT LEAST A TEMPORARY LULL IN LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR/RAP ANALYSES
DEPICT A LOW AMPLITUDE...HIGHLY SHEARED VORT MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL FGEN AXIS ALONG WITH A BRIEF NORTHWARD SURGE
OF MORE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST. 03Z SREF POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALSO SEEM TO KEY IN
ON THIS FEATURE WITH TEMPORARY UPSWING IN THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WOULD NOT SUPPORT
-SN WITH LACK OF SATURATION ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...MID LEVEL FGEN
FORCING AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK COULD PROVIDE SEEDER FEEDER
MECHANISM TO INTRODUCE A LOW END CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL FOCUS
THESE LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
A CHALLENGE GIVEN SKY COVER AND ADVECTION CONSIDERATIONS. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY LIMITED TEMP DROPS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. PERHAPS SOME WINDOW OF CLEARING MAY EXIST TOWARD
DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS THAT COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTIVE SURGE TO
WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AS BROADER
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SHARPER TEMPERATURE DROP
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH MAX TEMPS
THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUD DECK AND TIMING OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH TO BECOME ENTRENCHED TONIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME INCREASE OF AT LEAST
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
ABOVE THE INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL THREAT. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST FETCH LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS
TONIGHT. LACK OF DECOUPLING AND POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING
SHOULD KEEP MINS IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 12 ABOVE RANGE TONIGHT...WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ONE LAST ARCTIC SURGE OF BITTERLY COLD WILL INVADE THE AREA BEFORE
THE THE NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL AND ALLOWS
TEMPERATURES TO  RECOVER TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INHERENT CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS THAT
MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND BRIEFLY TAP SOME
COOLER AIR. VERY COLD AIR HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR NEARLY 3 WEEKS
WITH THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT FT WAYNE ONLY 11.5 SINCE FEBRUARY
12TH. DURING THIS PERIOD...NCEP TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS HAVE
HAD A MARKED COOL BIAS IN THE COLD AIR WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE COLDEST RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...MARCH 5TH IN
OVER A HUNDRED YEARS ARE 20 AND 17 FOR SOUTH BEND AND FORT WAYNE
RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...WITH ALL OF THIS CONSIDERED...HAVE GONE 4
TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NCEP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THURSDAY. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...RECORD LOWS ARE -7 AND -4 AT SOUTH BEND AND FT WAYNE
RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW ZERO. HAVE
LOWERED LOWS 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO COME IN LINE CLOSER TO THESE RECORD
LOWS GIVEN RECENT HUGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN THIS COLD PATTERN.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE WITH FAVORABLE DELTA T
VALUES...BUT LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS WEEKEND. DEEP SNOW
COVER MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT THE WARMUP OVER NORTHERN AREAS...SO WENT
A LITTLE COLDER OVER FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. KEPT CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

POST FRONTAL DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL INVERSION SHOULD SUPPORT
CONTINUED MVFR CIGS HOWEVER...GENERALLY IN THE 2-3K FT RANGE.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF CIGS BLO 2K FT FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE 12Z TAFS. REINFORCING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION
THIS EVENING WITH SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY
NEED TO ASSESS POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT
KSBN...WHICH COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS TONIGHT. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
WEST/NORTHWEST GUSTS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVENING.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 041658
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1158 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1133 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SOME SNOW MAY FALL ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD FALL IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO FAR NORTHERN
INDIANA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH
WILL ALSO USHER IN COLDER AIR. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
30S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE POSITIVE
DIGITS IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER TEENS NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURE TRENDS GIVEN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
TODAY AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

AXIS OF DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TRANSLATING TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
AT LEAST A TEMPORARY LULL IN LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR/RAP ANALYSES
DEPICT A LOW AMPLITUDE...HIGHLY SHEARED VORT MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL FGEN AXIS ALONG WITH A BRIEF NORTHWARD SURGE
OF MORE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST. 03Z SREF POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALSO SEEM TO KEY IN
ON THIS FEATURE WITH TEMPORARY UPSWING IN THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WOULD NOT SUPPORT
-SN WITH LACK OF SATURATION ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...MID LEVEL FGEN
FORCING AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK COULD PROVIDE SEEDER FEEDER
MECHANISM TO INTRODUCE A LOW END CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL FOCUS
THESE LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
A CHALLENGE GIVEN SKY COVER AND ADVECTION CONSIDERATIONS. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY LIMITED TEMP DROPS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. PERHAPS SOME WINDOW OF CLEARING MAY EXIST TOWARD
DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS THAT COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTIVE SURGE TO
WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AS BROADER
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SHARPER TEMPERATURE DROP
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH MAX TEMPS
THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUD DECK AND TIMING OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH TO BECOME ENTRENCHED TONIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME INCREASE OF AT LEAST
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
ABOVE THE INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL THREAT. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST FETCH LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS
TONIGHT. LACK OF DECOUPLING AND POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING
SHOULD KEEP MINS IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 12 ABOVE RANGE TONIGHT...WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ONE LAST ARCTIC SURGE OF BITTERLY COLD WILL INVADE THE AREA BEFORE
THE THE NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL AND ALLOWS
TEMPERATURES TO  RECOVER TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INHERENT CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS THAT
MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND BRIEFLY TAP SOME
COOLER AIR. VERY COLD AIR HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR NEARLY 3 WEEKS
WITH THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT FT WAYNE ONLY 11.5 SINCE FEBRUARY
12TH. DURING THIS PERIOD...NCEP TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS HAVE
HAD A MARKED COOL BIAS IN THE COLD AIR WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE COLDEST RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...MARCH 5TH IN
OVER A HUNDRED YEARS ARE 20 AND 17 FOR SOUTH BEND AND FORT WAYNE
RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...WITH ALL OF THIS CONSIDERED...HAVE GONE 4
TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NCEP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THURSDAY. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...RECORD LOWS ARE -7 AND -4 AT SOUTH BEND AND FT WAYNE
RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW ZERO. HAVE
LOWERED LOWS 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO COME IN LINE CLOSER TO THESE RECORD
LOWS GIVEN RECENT HUGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN THIS COLD PATTERN.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE WITH FAVORABLE DELTA T
VALUES...BUT LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS WEEKEND. DEEP SNOW
COVER MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT THE WARMUP OVER NORTHERN AREAS...SO WENT
A LITTLE COLDER OVER FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. KEPT CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

POST FRONTAL DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL INVERSION SHOULD SUPPORT
CONTINUED MVFR CIGS HOWEVER...GENERALLY IN THE 2-3K FT RANGE.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF CIGS BLO 2K FT FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE 12Z TAFS. REINFORCING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION
THIS EVENING WITH SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY
NEED TO ASSESS POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT
KSBN...WHICH COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS TONIGHT. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
WEST/NORTHWEST GUSTS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVENING.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 041146
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
646 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
SNOW FROM CENTRAL INDIANA INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO. ARCTIC
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REACH HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
SUBZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURE TRENDS GIVEN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
TODAY AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

AXIS OF DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TRANSLATING TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
AT LEAST A TEMPORARY LULL IN LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR/RAP ANALYSES
DEPICT A LOW AMPLITUDE...HIGHLY SHEARED VORT MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL FGEN AXIS ALONG WITH A BRIEF NORTHWARD SURGE
OF MORE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST. 03Z SREF POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALSO SEEM TO KEY IN
ON THIS FEATURE WITH TEMPORARY UPSWING IN THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WOULD NOT SUPPORT
-SN WITH LACK OF SATURATION ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...MID LEVEL FGEN
FORCING AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK COULD PROVIDE SEEDER FEEDER
MECHANISM TO INTRODUCE A LOW END CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL FOCUS
THESE LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
A CHALLENGE GIVEN SKY COVER AND ADVECTION CONSIDERATIONS. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY LIMITED TEMP DROPS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. PERHAPS SOME WINDOW OF CLEARING MAY EXIST TOWARD
DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS THAT COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTIVE SURGE TO
WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AS BROADER
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SHARPER TEMPERATURE DROP
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH MAX TEMPS
THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUD DECK AND TIMING OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH TO BECOME ENTRENCHED TONIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME INCREASE OF AT LEAST
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
ABOVE THE INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL THREAT. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST FETCH LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS
TONIGHT. LACK OF DECOUPLING AND POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING
SHOULD KEEP MINS IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 12 ABOVE RANGE TONIGHT...WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ONE LAST ARCTIC SURGE OF BITTERLY COLD WILL INVADE THE AREA BEFORE
THE THE NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL AND ALLOWS
TEMPERATURES TO  RECOVER TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INHERENT CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS THAT
MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND BRIEFLY TAP SOME
COOLER AIR. VERY COLD AIR HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR NEARLY 3 WEEKS
WITH THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT FT WAYNE ONLY 11.5 SINCE FEBRUARY
12TH. DURING THIS PERIOD...NCEP TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS HAVE
HAD A MARKED COOL BIAS IN THE COLD AIR WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE COLDEST RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...MARCH 5TH IN
OVER A HUNDRED YEARS ARE 20 AND 17 FOR SOUTH BEND AND FORT WAYNE
RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...WITH ALL OF THIS CONSIDERED...HAVE GONE 4
TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NCEP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THURSDAY. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...RECORD LOWS ARE -7 AND -4 AT SOUTH BEND AND FT WAYNE
RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW ZERO. HAVE
LOWERED LOWS 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO COME IN LINE CLOSER TO THESE RECORD
LOWS GIVEN RECENT HUGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN THIS COLD PATTERN.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE WITH FAVORABLE DELTA T
VALUES...BUT LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS WEEKEND. DEEP SNOW
COVER MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT THE WARMUP OVER NORTHERN AREAS...SO WENT
A LITTLE COLDER OVER FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. KEPT CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

POST FRONTAL DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL INVERSION SHOULD SUPPORT
CONTINUED MVFR CIGS HOWEVER...GENERALLY IN THE 2-3K FT RANGE.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF CIGS BLO 2K FT FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE 12Z TAFS. REINFORCING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION
THIS EVENING WITH SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY
NEED TO ASSESS POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT
KSBN...WHICH COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS TONIGHT. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
WEST/NORTHWEST GUSTS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVENING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 041146
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
646 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
SNOW FROM CENTRAL INDIANA INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO. ARCTIC
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REACH HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
SUBZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURE TRENDS GIVEN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
TODAY AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

AXIS OF DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TRANSLATING TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
AT LEAST A TEMPORARY LULL IN LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR/RAP ANALYSES
DEPICT A LOW AMPLITUDE...HIGHLY SHEARED VORT MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL FGEN AXIS ALONG WITH A BRIEF NORTHWARD SURGE
OF MORE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST. 03Z SREF POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALSO SEEM TO KEY IN
ON THIS FEATURE WITH TEMPORARY UPSWING IN THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WOULD NOT SUPPORT
-SN WITH LACK OF SATURATION ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...MID LEVEL FGEN
FORCING AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK COULD PROVIDE SEEDER FEEDER
MECHANISM TO INTRODUCE A LOW END CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL FOCUS
THESE LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
A CHALLENGE GIVEN SKY COVER AND ADVECTION CONSIDERATIONS. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY LIMITED TEMP DROPS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. PERHAPS SOME WINDOW OF CLEARING MAY EXIST TOWARD
DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS THAT COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTIVE SURGE TO
WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AS BROADER
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SHARPER TEMPERATURE DROP
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH MAX TEMPS
THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUD DECK AND TIMING OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH TO BECOME ENTRENCHED TONIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME INCREASE OF AT LEAST
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
ABOVE THE INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL THREAT. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST FETCH LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS
TONIGHT. LACK OF DECOUPLING AND POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING
SHOULD KEEP MINS IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 12 ABOVE RANGE TONIGHT...WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ONE LAST ARCTIC SURGE OF BITTERLY COLD WILL INVADE THE AREA BEFORE
THE THE NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL AND ALLOWS
TEMPERATURES TO  RECOVER TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INHERENT CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS THAT
MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND BRIEFLY TAP SOME
COOLER AIR. VERY COLD AIR HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR NEARLY 3 WEEKS
WITH THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT FT WAYNE ONLY 11.5 SINCE FEBRUARY
12TH. DURING THIS PERIOD...NCEP TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS HAVE
HAD A MARKED COOL BIAS IN THE COLD AIR WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE COLDEST RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...MARCH 5TH IN
OVER A HUNDRED YEARS ARE 20 AND 17 FOR SOUTH BEND AND FORT WAYNE
RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...WITH ALL OF THIS CONSIDERED...HAVE GONE 4
TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NCEP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THURSDAY. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...RECORD LOWS ARE -7 AND -4 AT SOUTH BEND AND FT WAYNE
RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW ZERO. HAVE
LOWERED LOWS 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO COME IN LINE CLOSER TO THESE RECORD
LOWS GIVEN RECENT HUGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN THIS COLD PATTERN.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE WITH FAVORABLE DELTA T
VALUES...BUT LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS WEEKEND. DEEP SNOW
COVER MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT THE WARMUP OVER NORTHERN AREAS...SO WENT
A LITTLE COLDER OVER FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. KEPT CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

POST FRONTAL DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL INVERSION SHOULD SUPPORT
CONTINUED MVFR CIGS HOWEVER...GENERALLY IN THE 2-3K FT RANGE.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF CIGS BLO 2K FT FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE 12Z TAFS. REINFORCING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION
THIS EVENING WITH SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY
NEED TO ASSESS POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT
KSBN...WHICH COULD PROVIDE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS TONIGHT. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
WEST/NORTHWEST GUSTS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVENING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 040936
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
436 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
SNOW FROM CENTRAL INDIANA INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO. ARCTIC
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REACH HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
SUBZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURE TRENDS GIVEN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
TODAY AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

AXIS OF DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TRANSLATING TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
AT LEAST A TEMPORARY LULL IN LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR/RAP ANALYSES
DEPICT A LOW AMPLITUDE...HIGHLY SHEARED VORT MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL FGEN AXIS ALONG WITH A BRIEF NORTHWARD SURGE
OF MORE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST. 03Z SREF POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALSO SEEM TO KEY IN
ON THIS FEATURE WITH TEMPORARY UPSWING IN THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WOULD NOT SUPPORT
-SN WITH LACK OF SATURATION ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...MID LEVEL FGEN
FORCING AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK COULD PROVIDE SEEDER FEEDER
MECHANISM TO INTRODUCE A LOW END CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL FOCUS
THESE LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
A CHALLENGE GIVEN SKY COVER AND ADVECTION CONSIDERATIONS. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY LIMITED TEMP DROPS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. PERHAPS SOME WINDOW OF CLEARING MAY EXIST TOWARD
DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS THAT COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTIVE SURGE TO
WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AS BROADER
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SHARPER TEMPERATURE DROP
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH MAX TEMPS
THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUD DECK AND TIMING OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH TO BECOME ENTRENCHED TONIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME INCREASE OF AT LEAST
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
ABOVE THE INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL THREAT. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST FETCH LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS
TONIGHT. LACK OF DECOUPLING AND POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING
SHOULD KEEP MINS IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 12 ABOVE RANGE TONIGHT...WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ONE LAST ARCTIC SURGE OF BITTERLY COLD WILL INVADE THE AREA BEFORE
THE THE NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL AND ALLOWS
TEMPERATURES TO  RECOVER TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INHERENT CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS THAT
MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND BRIEFLY TAP SOME
COOLER AIR. VERY COLD AIR HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR NEARLY 3 WEEKS
WITH THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT FT WAYNE ONLY 11.5 SINCE FEBRUARY
12TH. DURING THIS PERIOD...NCEP TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS HAVE
HAD A MARKED COOL BIAS IN THE COLD AIR WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE COLDEST RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...MARCH 5TH IN
OVER A HUNDRED YEARS ARE 20 AND 17 FOR SOUTH BEND AND FORT WAYNE
RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...WITH ALL OF THIS CONSIDERED...HAVE GONE 4
TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NCEP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THURSDAY. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...RECORD LOWS ARE -7 AND -4 AT SOUTH BEND AND FT WAYNE
RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW ZERO. HAVE
LOWERED LOWS 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO COME IN LINE CLOSER TO THESE RECORD
LOWS GIVEN RECENT HUGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN THIS COLD PATTERN.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE WITH FAVORABLE DELTA T
VALUES...BUT LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS WEEKEND. DEEP SNOW
COVER MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT THE WARMUP OVER NORTHERN AREAS...SO WENT
A LITTLE COLDER OVER FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. KEPT CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN POST FRONTAL COLD
ADVECTION REGIME. SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 040936
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
436 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
SNOW FROM CENTRAL INDIANA INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO. ARCTIC
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REACH HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
SUBZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE TREND IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

TEMPERATURE TRENDS GIVEN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
TODAY AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

AXIS OF DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TRANSLATING TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
AT LEAST A TEMPORARY LULL IN LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR/RAP ANALYSES
DEPICT A LOW AMPLITUDE...HIGHLY SHEARED VORT MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL FGEN AXIS ALONG WITH A BRIEF NORTHWARD SURGE
OF MORE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST. 03Z SREF POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALSO SEEM TO KEY IN
ON THIS FEATURE WITH TEMPORARY UPSWING IN THE 18Z-00Z PERIOD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WOULD NOT SUPPORT
-SN WITH LACK OF SATURATION ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...MID LEVEL FGEN
FORCING AND MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK COULD PROVIDE SEEDER FEEDER
MECHANISM TO INTRODUCE A LOW END CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL FOCUS
THESE LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
A CHALLENGE GIVEN SKY COVER AND ADVECTION CONSIDERATIONS. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT...WITH ONLY LIMITED TEMP DROPS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. PERHAPS SOME WINDOW OF CLEARING MAY EXIST TOWARD
DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS THAT COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTIVE SURGE TO
WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AS BROADER
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SHARPER TEMPERATURE DROP
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH MAX TEMPS
THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUD DECK AND TIMING OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH TO BECOME ENTRENCHED TONIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME INCREASE OF AT LEAST
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
ABOVE THE INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL THREAT. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHWEST FETCH LAKE EFFECT PRONE AREAS
TONIGHT. LACK OF DECOUPLING AND POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING
SHOULD KEEP MINS IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 12 ABOVE RANGE TONIGHT...WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

ONE LAST ARCTIC SURGE OF BITTERLY COLD WILL INVADE THE AREA BEFORE
THE THE NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL AND ALLOWS
TEMPERATURES TO  RECOVER TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INHERENT CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS THAT
MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND BRIEFLY TAP SOME
COOLER AIR. VERY COLD AIR HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR NEARLY 3 WEEKS
WITH THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT FT WAYNE ONLY 11.5 SINCE FEBRUARY
12TH. DURING THIS PERIOD...NCEP TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS HAVE
HAD A MARKED COOL BIAS IN THE COLD AIR WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE COLDEST RECORD COLD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...MARCH 5TH IN
OVER A HUNDRED YEARS ARE 20 AND 17 FOR SOUTH BEND AND FORT WAYNE
RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...WITH ALL OF THIS CONSIDERED...HAVE GONE 4
TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NCEP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS THURSDAY. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...RECORD LOWS ARE -7 AND -4 AT SOUTH BEND AND FT WAYNE
RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW ZERO. HAVE
LOWERED LOWS 3 TO 4 DEGREES TO COME IN LINE CLOSER TO THESE RECORD
LOWS GIVEN RECENT HUGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN THIS COLD PATTERN.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE WITH FAVORABLE DELTA T
VALUES...BUT LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS WEEKEND. DEEP SNOW
COVER MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT THE WARMUP OVER NORTHERN AREAS...SO WENT
A LITTLE COLDER OVER FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. KEPT CONDITIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN POST FRONTAL COLD
ADVECTION REGIME. SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 040646
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
146 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREAS OF FOG...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CHANGE THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING BY
DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA TO THE MIDDLE 20S NEAR LIMA OHIO. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

HIGH SUN ANGLE OF EARLY MARCH ALONG WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WAA
HAVE VASTLY IMPROVED SURFACES ACRS ENTIRE CWA. ANY LINGERING
SHELTERED AREAS IN FAR NERN CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MELT NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. KATAFRONTAL PRECIP SHIELD ON MARKED DOWNTREND LATER
THIS EVENING WITH FROPA WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS BYND 00
UTC. SLIGHT CONCERN WITH SHALLOW SFC BASED UNDERCUT OF COLDER AIR
IN EXTREME FAR SERN CWA COINCIDENT W/FROPA TO PRESENT LIGHT ZR
THERMAL PROFILE BRIEFLY NEAR CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN IN 06-09 UTC
TIMEFRAME. REMOVED RESIDUAL LES AS THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS QUITE
LACKLUSTER INTO WED. STILL DEEPENING CAA TO PROVIDE LITTLE TEMP
RECOVERY FOR WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. OPEN WATERS ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
HOWEVER ACCUMULATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

COLD AIR RETREATS BEGINNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY/MONDAY. GIVEN THE INCREASED SUN ANGLE THIS IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THE MAX TEMPERATURES ARE TOO OPTIMISTIC IN THE LATTER PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN POST FRONTAL COLD
ADVECTION REGIME. SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 040646
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
146 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREAS OF FOG...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CHANGE THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING BY
DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA TO THE MIDDLE 20S NEAR LIMA OHIO. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

HIGH SUN ANGLE OF EARLY MARCH ALONG WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WAA
HAVE VASTLY IMPROVED SURFACES ACRS ENTIRE CWA. ANY LINGERING
SHELTERED AREAS IN FAR NERN CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MELT NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. KATAFRONTAL PRECIP SHIELD ON MARKED DOWNTREND LATER
THIS EVENING WITH FROPA WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS BYND 00
UTC. SLIGHT CONCERN WITH SHALLOW SFC BASED UNDERCUT OF COLDER AIR
IN EXTREME FAR SERN CWA COINCIDENT W/FROPA TO PRESENT LIGHT ZR
THERMAL PROFILE BRIEFLY NEAR CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN IN 06-09 UTC
TIMEFRAME. REMOVED RESIDUAL LES AS THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS QUITE
LACKLUSTER INTO WED. STILL DEEPENING CAA TO PROVIDE LITTLE TEMP
RECOVERY FOR WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. OPEN WATERS ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
HOWEVER ACCUMULATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

COLD AIR RETREATS BEGINNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY/MONDAY. GIVEN THE INCREASED SUN ANGLE THIS IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THE MAX TEMPERATURES ARE TOO OPTIMISTIC IN THE LATTER PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN POST FRONTAL COLD
ADVECTION REGIME. SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 040646
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
146 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREAS OF FOG...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CHANGE THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING BY
DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA TO THE MIDDLE 20S NEAR LIMA OHIO. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

HIGH SUN ANGLE OF EARLY MARCH ALONG WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WAA
HAVE VASTLY IMPROVED SURFACES ACRS ENTIRE CWA. ANY LINGERING
SHELTERED AREAS IN FAR NERN CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MELT NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. KATAFRONTAL PRECIP SHIELD ON MARKED DOWNTREND LATER
THIS EVENING WITH FROPA WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS BYND 00
UTC. SLIGHT CONCERN WITH SHALLOW SFC BASED UNDERCUT OF COLDER AIR
IN EXTREME FAR SERN CWA COINCIDENT W/FROPA TO PRESENT LIGHT ZR
THERMAL PROFILE BRIEFLY NEAR CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN IN 06-09 UTC
TIMEFRAME. REMOVED RESIDUAL LES AS THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS QUITE
LACKLUSTER INTO WED. STILL DEEPENING CAA TO PROVIDE LITTLE TEMP
RECOVERY FOR WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. OPEN WATERS ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
HOWEVER ACCUMULATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

COLD AIR RETREATS BEGINNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY/MONDAY. GIVEN THE INCREASED SUN ANGLE THIS IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THE MAX TEMPERATURES ARE TOO OPTIMISTIC IN THE LATTER PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN POST FRONTAL COLD
ADVECTION REGIME. SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 040646
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
146 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREAS OF FOG...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CHANGE THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING BY
DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA TO THE MIDDLE 20S NEAR LIMA OHIO. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

HIGH SUN ANGLE OF EARLY MARCH ALONG WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WAA
HAVE VASTLY IMPROVED SURFACES ACRS ENTIRE CWA. ANY LINGERING
SHELTERED AREAS IN FAR NERN CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MELT NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. KATAFRONTAL PRECIP SHIELD ON MARKED DOWNTREND LATER
THIS EVENING WITH FROPA WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS BYND 00
UTC. SLIGHT CONCERN WITH SHALLOW SFC BASED UNDERCUT OF COLDER AIR
IN EXTREME FAR SERN CWA COINCIDENT W/FROPA TO PRESENT LIGHT ZR
THERMAL PROFILE BRIEFLY NEAR CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN IN 06-09 UTC
TIMEFRAME. REMOVED RESIDUAL LES AS THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS QUITE
LACKLUSTER INTO WED. STILL DEEPENING CAA TO PROVIDE LITTLE TEMP
RECOVERY FOR WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. OPEN WATERS ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
HOWEVER ACCUMULATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

COLD AIR RETREATS BEGINNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY/MONDAY. GIVEN THE INCREASED SUN ANGLE THIS IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THE MAX TEMPERATURES ARE TOO OPTIMISTIC IN THE LATTER PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN POST FRONTAL COLD
ADVECTION REGIME. SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 040014
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
714 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREAS OF FOG...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CHANGE THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING BY
DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA TO THE MIDDLE 20S NEAR LIMA OHIO. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

HIGH SUN ANGLE OF EARLY MARCH ALONG WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WAA
HAVE VASTLY IMPROVED SURFACES ACRS ENTIRE CWA. ANY LINGERING
SHELTERED AREAS IN FAR NERN CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MELT NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. KATAFRONTAL PRECIP SHIELD ON MARKED DOWNTREND LATER
THIS EVENING WITH FROPA WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS BYND 00
UTC. SLIGHT CONCERN WITH SHALLOW SFC BASED UNDERCUT OF COLDER AIR
IN EXTREME FAR SERN CWA COINCIDENT W/FROPA TO PRESENT LIGHT ZR
THERMAL PROFILE BRIEFLY NEAR CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN IN 06-09 UTC
TIMEFRAME. REMOVED RESIDUAL LES AS THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS QUITE
LACKLUSTER INTO WED. STILL DEEPENING CAA TO PROVIDE LITTLE TEMP
RECOVERY FOR WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. OPEN WATERS ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
HOWEVER ACCUMULATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

COLD AIR RETREATS BEGINNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY/MONDAY. GIVEN THE INCREASED SUN ANGLE THIS IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THE MAX TEMPERATURES ARE TOO OPTIMISTIC IN THE LATTER PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 714 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

POST FNTL AIRMASS SLOWLY DRYING OUT AS LL CAA RATCHETS UP AGAIN.
HWVR MID LVL TROUGH AXIS IS NOW HUNG UP THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
DOWNSTREAM OF EJECTING POTENT SWRN US SW TROUGH AND SHLD AIDE IN
CONTD GENERALLY LWR END MVFR CIGS TO FESTER UNTIL MID MORNING WED
AS SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND MUCH COLDER AIR SWEEPS INTO
THROUGH WED AFTN/EVE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 040014
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
714 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREAS OF FOG...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CHANGE THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING BY
DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA TO THE MIDDLE 20S NEAR LIMA OHIO. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

HIGH SUN ANGLE OF EARLY MARCH ALONG WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WAA
HAVE VASTLY IMPROVED SURFACES ACRS ENTIRE CWA. ANY LINGERING
SHELTERED AREAS IN FAR NERN CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MELT NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. KATAFRONTAL PRECIP SHIELD ON MARKED DOWNTREND LATER
THIS EVENING WITH FROPA WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS BYND 00
UTC. SLIGHT CONCERN WITH SHALLOW SFC BASED UNDERCUT OF COLDER AIR
IN EXTREME FAR SERN CWA COINCIDENT W/FROPA TO PRESENT LIGHT ZR
THERMAL PROFILE BRIEFLY NEAR CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN IN 06-09 UTC
TIMEFRAME. REMOVED RESIDUAL LES AS THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS QUITE
LACKLUSTER INTO WED. STILL DEEPENING CAA TO PROVIDE LITTLE TEMP
RECOVERY FOR WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. OPEN WATERS ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
HOWEVER ACCUMULATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

COLD AIR RETREATS BEGINNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY/MONDAY. GIVEN THE INCREASED SUN ANGLE THIS IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THE MAX TEMPERATURES ARE TOO OPTIMISTIC IN THE LATTER PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 714 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

POST FNTL AIRMASS SLOWLY DRYING OUT AS LL CAA RATCHETS UP AGAIN.
HWVR MID LVL TROUGH AXIS IS NOW HUNG UP THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
DOWNSTREAM OF EJECTING POTENT SWRN US SW TROUGH AND SHLD AIDE IN
CONTD GENERALLY LWR END MVFR CIGS TO FESTER UNTIL MID MORNING WED
AS SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND MUCH COLDER AIR SWEEPS INTO
THROUGH WED AFTN/EVE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 032120
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
420 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREAS OF FOG...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CHANGE THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING BY
DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA TO THE MIDDLE 20S NEAR LIMA OHIO. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

HIGH SUN ANGLE OF EARLY MARCH ALONG WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WAA
HAVE VASTLY IMPROVED SURFACES ACRS ENTIRE CWA. ANY LINGERING
SHELTERED AREAS IN FAR NERN CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MELT NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. KATAFRONTAL PRECIP SHIELD ON MARKED DOWNTREND LATER
THIS EVENING WITH FROPA WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS BYND 00
UTC. SLIGHT CONCERN WITH SHALLOW SFC BASED UNDERCUT OF COLDER AIR
IN EXTREME FAR SERN CWA COINCIDENT W/FROPA TO PRESENT LIGHT ZR
THERMAL PROFILE BRIEFLY NEAR CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN IN 06-09 UTC
TIMEFRAME. REMOVED RESIDUAL LES AS THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS QUITE
LACKLUSTER INTO WED. STILL DEEPENING CAA TO PROVIDE LITTLE TEMP
RECOVERY FOR WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. OPEN WATERS ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
HOWEVER ACCUMULATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

COLD AIR RETREATS BEGINNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY/MONDAY. GIVEN THE INCREASED SUN ANGLE THIS IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THE MAX TEMPERATURES ARE TOO OPTIMISTIC IN THE LATTER PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AMPLE AFTN SUN ANGLE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW PTYPE TO
CHANGE TO ALL LIQUID BY 19 UTC AT KFWA. CONTD MOISTURE FLUX FROM
SLOW MELTING SNOWPACK AND TOP/DOWN SATURATION TO LIKELY LEND LONG
DURATION IFR CIGS ACRS NRN INDIANA THROUGH AT LEAST MID.LATE
EAVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CRTNLY ACRS WI INTO FAR ERN IA TO PUSH
EWD THROUGH REGION IN 01-03 UTC TIMEFRAME AND SHOULD LEAD TO
MIXOUT INVERSION TRAPPED MOISTURE FOR IMPROVED VSBYS/CIGS THROUGH
REMAINDER OF FCST PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 032120
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
420 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREAS OF FOG...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CHANGE THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING BY
DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA TO THE MIDDLE 20S NEAR LIMA OHIO. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

HIGH SUN ANGLE OF EARLY MARCH ALONG WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WAA
HAVE VASTLY IMPROVED SURFACES ACRS ENTIRE CWA. ANY LINGERING
SHELTERED AREAS IN FAR NERN CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MELT NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. KATAFRONTAL PRECIP SHIELD ON MARKED DOWNTREND LATER
THIS EVENING WITH FROPA WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS BYND 00
UTC. SLIGHT CONCERN WITH SHALLOW SFC BASED UNDERCUT OF COLDER AIR
IN EXTREME FAR SERN CWA COINCIDENT W/FROPA TO PRESENT LIGHT ZR
THERMAL PROFILE BRIEFLY NEAR CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN IN 06-09 UTC
TIMEFRAME. REMOVED RESIDUAL LES AS THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS QUITE
LACKLUSTER INTO WED. STILL DEEPENING CAA TO PROVIDE LITTLE TEMP
RECOVERY FOR WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. OPEN WATERS ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
HOWEVER ACCUMULATION WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

COLD AIR RETREATS BEGINNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY/MONDAY. GIVEN THE INCREASED SUN ANGLE THIS IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THE MAX TEMPERATURES ARE TOO OPTIMISTIC IN THE LATTER PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AMPLE AFTN SUN ANGLE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW PTYPE TO
CHANGE TO ALL LIQUID BY 19 UTC AT KFWA. CONTD MOISTURE FLUX FROM
SLOW MELTING SNOWPACK AND TOP/DOWN SATURATION TO LIKELY LEND LONG
DURATION IFR CIGS ACRS NRN INDIANA THROUGH AT LEAST MID.LATE
EAVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CRTNLY ACRS WI INTO FAR ERN IA TO PUSH
EWD THROUGH REGION IN 01-03 UTC TIMEFRAME AND SHOULD LEAD TO
MIXOUT INVERSION TRAPPED MOISTURE FOR IMPROVED VSBYS/CIGS THROUGH
REMAINDER OF FCST PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 031810
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
110 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED
ROADS AND SIDEWALKS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

3 HR EXTENSION OF ADVISORY PRIMARILY FOR FREEZING RAIN PERSISTING
ACRS FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST CWA. SHALLOW INVERSION AFFORDING
SLOWER RECESSION ACRS DEEPER SNOWPACK/MORE DEEPLY ROOTED
ANTECEDENT ARCTIC AIRMASS. HOWEVER...WITH EARLY MARCH SUN PEAKING
HIR ALTITUDES...EXPECT EVENTUAL MIXOUT ACRS ENTIRE CWA TO AOA FZG.
MAR 3 PEAK SOLAR ALTITUDE AT KASW FOR EXAMPLE IS 42 DEGREES WHICH
SHOULD ALSO AFFORD RAPID IMPROVEMENT OF EVEN UNTREATED SFCS IN ALL
BUT INSOLATION SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS JUST
UPSTREAM AND SFC OBS INDICATE LOWER LEVELS SLOWLY SATURATING WITH
MIXED PCPN TYPES BEING REPORTED AT OBSERVING SITES ACROSS IL AND IA
AS EXPECTED. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THOUGH DID REMOVE THE
INEXPLICABLE ANOMALOUS RAIN SHOWERS FROM GRIDS AND FORECAST THIS
MORNING WHERE SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 20S.

PREFERENCE THIS MORNING FOR THERMAL PROFILES LIES WITH NAM12 AND
HIRES RUC GUIDANCE WHICH ARE BOTH SIMILAR THROUGH THE MORNING. ONLY
REAL ISSUE IS WITH SFC TEMPS AT INITIALIZATION THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.
ALL HIRES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COLD WITH FALLING TEMPS EARLY THIS
MORNING...SEEMINGLY TRYING TO FOLLOW SOME TYPE OF CLIMO BASED
DIURNAL CURVE. SFC OBS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OFFSETTING EVAP COOLING
PROCESSES. WHILE TEMPS MY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO...NOT EXPECTING A 3
TO 5 DEGREE DROP BEFORE RISING AS MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING.
THUS HAD TO MANUALLY EDIT HOURLY TEMP GRIDS THROUGH 13Z BEFORE
MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO LATCH ONTO ACTUAL WARMING.

POWT PROCESS ONCE AGAIN USED FOR WEATHER GRID OUTPUT TODAY USING
RUC13 AND NAM12 AS BASE GRIDS. RESULTS GENERALLY AS WE HAVE BEEN
EXPECTING WITH A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET EARLY IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST AND LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY NORTH AND EAST WITH A CHANCE
FOR SLEET. AS MENTIONED...DID REMOVE RAIN SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING
WHERE TEMPS WERE BELOW 32F. TRANSITION ZONE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING AS PCPN BECOMES FREEZING RAIN ALL AREAS
FOR A FEW HOURS. HIRES GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A BREAK IN PCPN MID TO
LATE MORNING BEFORE SECONDARY BATCH MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE LOW IN TRYING TO TIME THIS OUT BUT IS WORTH NOTING AS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A WEAK DRY SLOT BUT THIS COULD EASILY FILL IN
THIS MORNING.

SFC TEMPS PROGGED TO WARM NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SO RAIN SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT AFTER 18Z TO 19Z.
HOWEVER...WE CONTINUE TO WORRY ABOUT ACTUAL SFC TEMPS POSSIBLY
LAGGING 2M MEASURED AIR TEMPS BY A FEW HOURS DUE TO HOW COLD WE HAVE
BEEN AND FROZEN GROUND DOWN TO AROUND 10 INCHES. THIS IS AN UNKNOWN
FACTOR AND ONE THAT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST. THUS THIS
COULD KEEP SOME SECONDARY AND LESS TRAVELED ROADS ICY WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST. ICE ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK
TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH AND NO MORE THAN 0.15. SNOW ACCUMS
DOWN A BIT IN THE NORTH WITH AN INCH STILL POSSIBLE AND ISOLATED 2
INCHES NOT OUT OF QUESTION. THESE AMOUNTS CAN STILL VARY DEPENDING
ON EXACT TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AT DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. STILL WELL
WITHIN GOING ADVISORY WHICH WILL CONTINUE.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON QPF TOTALS WITH THIS ENTIRE
EVENT OVER OUR AREA. IMPRESSIVE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR WILL BE TAKEN SOUTH AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR IMPRESSIVE
WINTER STORM OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. DRY SLOT MAY WORK INTO
OUR AREA QUICKER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH GETS GOING AND STEALS NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOW
END LIKELY FAR SOUTHEAST. SHOULD BE LIGHT RAIN INITIALLY WITH ANY
PCPN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT WITH DRYING ALOFT AND
DIMINISHING ICE. HOWEVER...CHANCES LOOK SMALL AND WILL DEFER TO DAY
SHIFT TO EVALUATE PCPN TRENDS GOING INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY...HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LAKE MICHIGAN
HAS OPENED UP SOME...WITH MOST OF THE ICE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
LAKE PER VISIBLE SATELLITE FROM YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH DELTA T VALUES
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
SHOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS LIGHT. KEPT A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE INVERSION HEIGHTS BECOME TOO LOW
TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT
SNOW ON THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM MARION TO
LIMA. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE TRENDED NORTHWEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SNOW STILL APPEARS MARGINAL
GIVEN QUESTIONABLE SATURATION IN THE MID LEVELS. INTRODUCED A CHANCE
FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTERLY COLD
AIR TO INVADE THE AREA YET AGAIN. WENT ABOVE THE GFS/MEX 13F AND THE
ECMWF 14F HIGHS THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COLD WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES RECENTLY IN ARCTIC
AIRMASSES. SO KEPT HIGHS AROUND 16F THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD BE THE
COLDEST HIGH AT FT WAYNE FOR THE DATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AMPLE AFTN SUN ANGLE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW PTYPE TO
CHANGE TO ALL LIQUID BY 19 UTC AT KFWA. CONTD MOISTURE FLUX FROM
SLOW MELTING SNOWPACK AND TOP/DOWN SATURATION TO LIKELY LEND LONG
DURATION IFR CIGS ACRS NRN INDIANA THROUGH AT LEAST MID.LATE
EAVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CRTNLY ACRS WI INTO FAR ERN IA TO PUSH
EWD THROUGH REGION IN 01-03 UTC TIMEFRAME AND SHOULD LEAD TO
MIXOUT INVERSION TRAPPED MOISTURE FOR IMPROVED VSBYS/CIGS THROUGH
REMAINDER OF FCST PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR INZ003>005-008-009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ006-
     007.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ077.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ078>081.

OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ001-
     002.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MURPHY
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 031810
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
110 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED
ROADS AND SIDEWALKS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

3 HR EXTENSION OF ADVISORY PRIMARILY FOR FREEZING RAIN PERSISTING
ACRS FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST CWA. SHALLOW INVERSION AFFORDING
SLOWER RECESSION ACRS DEEPER SNOWPACK/MORE DEEPLY ROOTED
ANTECEDENT ARCTIC AIRMASS. HOWEVER...WITH EARLY MARCH SUN PEAKING
HIR ALTITUDES...EXPECT EVENTUAL MIXOUT ACRS ENTIRE CWA TO AOA FZG.
MAR 3 PEAK SOLAR ALTITUDE AT KASW FOR EXAMPLE IS 42 DEGREES WHICH
SHOULD ALSO AFFORD RAPID IMPROVEMENT OF EVEN UNTREATED SFCS IN ALL
BUT INSOLATION SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS JUST
UPSTREAM AND SFC OBS INDICATE LOWER LEVELS SLOWLY SATURATING WITH
MIXED PCPN TYPES BEING REPORTED AT OBSERVING SITES ACROSS IL AND IA
AS EXPECTED. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THOUGH DID REMOVE THE
INEXPLICABLE ANOMALOUS RAIN SHOWERS FROM GRIDS AND FORECAST THIS
MORNING WHERE SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 20S.

PREFERENCE THIS MORNING FOR THERMAL PROFILES LIES WITH NAM12 AND
HIRES RUC GUIDANCE WHICH ARE BOTH SIMILAR THROUGH THE MORNING. ONLY
REAL ISSUE IS WITH SFC TEMPS AT INITIALIZATION THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.
ALL HIRES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COLD WITH FALLING TEMPS EARLY THIS
MORNING...SEEMINGLY TRYING TO FOLLOW SOME TYPE OF CLIMO BASED
DIURNAL CURVE. SFC OBS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OFFSETTING EVAP COOLING
PROCESSES. WHILE TEMPS MY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO...NOT EXPECTING A 3
TO 5 DEGREE DROP BEFORE RISING AS MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING.
THUS HAD TO MANUALLY EDIT HOURLY TEMP GRIDS THROUGH 13Z BEFORE
MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO LATCH ONTO ACTUAL WARMING.

POWT PROCESS ONCE AGAIN USED FOR WEATHER GRID OUTPUT TODAY USING
RUC13 AND NAM12 AS BASE GRIDS. RESULTS GENERALLY AS WE HAVE BEEN
EXPECTING WITH A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET EARLY IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST AND LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY NORTH AND EAST WITH A CHANCE
FOR SLEET. AS MENTIONED...DID REMOVE RAIN SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING
WHERE TEMPS WERE BELOW 32F. TRANSITION ZONE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING AS PCPN BECOMES FREEZING RAIN ALL AREAS
FOR A FEW HOURS. HIRES GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A BREAK IN PCPN MID TO
LATE MORNING BEFORE SECONDARY BATCH MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE LOW IN TRYING TO TIME THIS OUT BUT IS WORTH NOTING AS
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A WEAK DRY SLOT BUT THIS COULD EASILY FILL IN
THIS MORNING.

SFC TEMPS PROGGED TO WARM NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SO RAIN SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT AFTER 18Z TO 19Z.
HOWEVER...WE CONTINUE TO WORRY ABOUT ACTUAL SFC TEMPS POSSIBLY
LAGGING 2M MEASURED AIR TEMPS BY A FEW HOURS DUE TO HOW COLD WE HAVE
BEEN AND FROZEN GROUND DOWN TO AROUND 10 INCHES. THIS IS AN UNKNOWN
FACTOR AND ONE THAT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST. THUS THIS
COULD KEEP SOME SECONDARY AND LESS TRAVELED ROADS ICY WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST. ICE ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK
TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH AND NO MORE THAN 0.15. SNOW ACCUMS
DOWN A BIT IN THE NORTH WITH AN INCH STILL POSSIBLE AND ISOLATED 2
INCHES NOT OUT OF QUESTION. THESE AMOUNTS CAN STILL VARY DEPENDING
ON EXACT TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AT DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. STILL WELL
WITHIN GOING ADVISORY WHICH WILL CONTINUE.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON QPF TOTALS WITH THIS ENTIRE
EVENT OVER OUR AREA. IMPRESSIVE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR WILL BE TAKEN SOUTH AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR IMPRESSIVE
WINTER STORM OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. DRY SLOT MAY WORK INTO
OUR AREA QUICKER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH GETS GOING AND STEALS NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOW
END LIKELY FAR SOUTHEAST. SHOULD BE LIGHT RAIN INITIALLY WITH ANY
PCPN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT WITH DRYING ALOFT AND
DIMINISHING ICE. HOWEVER...CHANCES LOOK SMALL AND WILL DEFER TO DAY
SHIFT TO EVALUATE PCPN TRENDS GOING INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY...HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LAKE MICHIGAN
HAS OPENED UP SOME...WITH MOST OF THE ICE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
LAKE PER VISIBLE SATELLITE FROM YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH DELTA T VALUES
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS
SHOULD KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS LIGHT. KEPT A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE INVERSION HEIGHTS BECOME TOO LOW
TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT
SNOW ON THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM MARION TO
LIMA. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE TRENDED NORTHWEST WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SNOW STILL APPEARS MARGINAL
GIVEN QUESTIONABLE SATURATION IN THE MID LEVELS. INTRODUCED A CHANCE
FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTERLY COLD
AIR TO INVADE THE AREA YET AGAIN. WENT ABOVE THE GFS/MEX 13F AND THE
ECMWF 14F HIGHS THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COLD WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES RECENTLY IN ARCTIC
AIRMASSES. SO KEPT HIGHS AROUND 16F THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD BE THE
COLDEST HIGH AT FT WAYNE FOR THE DATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

AMPLE AFTN SUN ANGLE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW PTYPE TO
CHANGE TO ALL LIQUID BY 19 UTC AT KFWA. CONTD MOISTURE FLUX FROM
SLOW MELTING SNOWPACK AND TOP/DOWN SATURATION TO LIKELY LEND LONG
DURATION IFR CIGS ACRS NRN INDIANA THROUGH AT LEAST MID.LATE
EAVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CRTNLY ACRS WI INTO FAR ERN IA TO PUSH
EWD THROUGH REGION IN 01-03 UTC TIMEFRAME AND SHOULD LEAD TO
MIXOUT INVERSION TRAPPED MOISTURE FOR IMPROVED VSBYS/CIGS THROUGH
REMAINDER OF FCST PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR INZ003>005-008-009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ006-
     007.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ077.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ078>081.

OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ001-
     002.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MURPHY
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








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