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000
FXUS63 KIWX 281025
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
625 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY. THIS HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW
INCREASED MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ANOTHER QUIET DAY WEATHER WISE IS IN STORE WITH MAIN STORY IN THE
SHORT TERM ON THE HEAT/HUMIDITY FOLLOWED BY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT.

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN COMPARISON TO PAST
FEW DAYS WITH GREAT LAKES ANTICYCLONE CONTINUING TO PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THIS PATTERN HAS LED TO A SHARP SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD BE THE CASE ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. RATHER STAGNANT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
MID LEVEL RIDGING/SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE FOR TODAY.
CONTINUED MODERATION OF LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WITH HISTORY OF
SUBSIDENCE AND GOOD DEAL OF INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER MAX TEMPS TODAY IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
80S...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOME SPOTS TO HIT THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
WITH EASTERLY FLOW REMAINING WEAK TODAY...HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD
RAP WIND FIELDS CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
A WEAK SYNOPTICALLY MODIFIED N-NE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE...WOULD EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 80S BEFORE SOME COOLING LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE
MODIFIED LAKE BREEZE. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
MOISTURE GRADIENT...HIGHEST AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S
ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST HALF OR SOUTHWEST THIRD...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE. EXTREME SOUTHWEST
LOCATIONS COULD MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 90S FOR HEAT INDICES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEAT HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP POTENTIAL...ONGOING MCS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGESTING THIS CONVECTION DECAYING ACROSS
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.  GIVEN STOUT MID/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...HAVE GENERALLY BOUGHT IN ON THIS SCENARIO. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF COLD
FRONT TO MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. A NARROW
BUT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL ADVECT INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER.  IN ADDITION TO LOW LEVEL THETAE
ADVECTION...SOME RESIDUAL VORT MAX ENHANCED BY NORTHERN PLAINS
CONVECTION THIS MORNING MAY BE SLOWLY PROGRESSING THROUGH MEAN FLOW
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATER TONIGHT...SO HAVE CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE TSRA MENTION ACROSS WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

PERIOD WILL START FOCUSED ON WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY ALREADY EXIST ALONG
THE FRONT...SUPPORTED BY WEAK CONVERGENCE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE.
SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT EML POTENTIAL...BUT
GOOD DEGREE OF WARM AIR LIKELY CAPPING MUCH OF THIS OFF...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL. AT THIS POINT MID TO HIGH END CHC (SCT) POPS STILL
WARRANTED WITH CONTINUED PASSING MENTION OF STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM. TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO FROPA MAY BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS TIMING OF FRONT. WARMEST READINGS
SE STILL LOOK MOST REASONABLE.

SEMI ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL WEAK RIPPLES AND SURFACE REFLECTIONS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO
THE REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIST DURING THE PERIOD
IN MORE SUMMER LIKE...ISOL TO SCT CONVECTIVE PATTERN AT BEST WITH
BEST DYNAMICS REMAINING REMOVED FROM THE REGION. TIMING OF EACH
SYSTEM LIKELY TO VARY IN THE COMING DAYS SO ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

PERSISTENCE OF GREAT LAKES ANTICYCLONE WILL RESULT IN QUIET
AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. NORTHERN INDIANA WILL REMAIN ON
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH WHICH WILL KEEP EAST/SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN PLACE. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF AFTERNOON CU IS EXPECTED...BUT
ANY FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU WILL HAVE BASES GREATER THAN 3K FT. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY
WILL ALLOW FOR EASTWARD ADVECTION OF CENTRAL PLAINS THERMAL
RIDGE/MOISTURE AXIS FOR TONIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWER/ISOLD THUNDER CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL IS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT KSBN REMAINS RELATIVELY
LOW THROUGH 12Z...WILL OMIT ANY PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 281025
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
625 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY. THIS HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW
INCREASED MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ANOTHER QUIET DAY WEATHER WISE IS IN STORE WITH MAIN STORY IN THE
SHORT TERM ON THE HEAT/HUMIDITY FOLLOWED BY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT.

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN COMPARISON TO PAST
FEW DAYS WITH GREAT LAKES ANTICYCLONE CONTINUING TO PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THIS PATTERN HAS LED TO A SHARP SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD BE THE CASE ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. RATHER STAGNANT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
MID LEVEL RIDGING/SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE FOR TODAY.
CONTINUED MODERATION OF LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WITH HISTORY OF
SUBSIDENCE AND GOOD DEAL OF INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER MAX TEMPS TODAY IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
80S...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOME SPOTS TO HIT THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
WITH EASTERLY FLOW REMAINING WEAK TODAY...HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD
RAP WIND FIELDS CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
A WEAK SYNOPTICALLY MODIFIED N-NE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE...WOULD EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 80S BEFORE SOME COOLING LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE
MODIFIED LAKE BREEZE. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
MOISTURE GRADIENT...HIGHEST AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S
ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST HALF OR SOUTHWEST THIRD...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE. EXTREME SOUTHWEST
LOCATIONS COULD MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 90S FOR HEAT INDICES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEAT HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP POTENTIAL...ONGOING MCS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGESTING THIS CONVECTION DECAYING ACROSS
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.  GIVEN STOUT MID/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...HAVE GENERALLY BOUGHT IN ON THIS SCENARIO. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF COLD
FRONT TO MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. A NARROW
BUT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL ADVECT INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER.  IN ADDITION TO LOW LEVEL THETAE
ADVECTION...SOME RESIDUAL VORT MAX ENHANCED BY NORTHERN PLAINS
CONVECTION THIS MORNING MAY BE SLOWLY PROGRESSING THROUGH MEAN FLOW
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATER TONIGHT...SO HAVE CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE TSRA MENTION ACROSS WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

PERIOD WILL START FOCUSED ON WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY ALREADY EXIST ALONG
THE FRONT...SUPPORTED BY WEAK CONVERGENCE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE.
SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT EML POTENTIAL...BUT
GOOD DEGREE OF WARM AIR LIKELY CAPPING MUCH OF THIS OFF...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL. AT THIS POINT MID TO HIGH END CHC (SCT) POPS STILL
WARRANTED WITH CONTINUED PASSING MENTION OF STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM. TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO FROPA MAY BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS TIMING OF FRONT. WARMEST READINGS
SE STILL LOOK MOST REASONABLE.

SEMI ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL WEAK RIPPLES AND SURFACE REFLECTIONS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO
THE REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIST DURING THE PERIOD
IN MORE SUMMER LIKE...ISOL TO SCT CONVECTIVE PATTERN AT BEST WITH
BEST DYNAMICS REMAINING REMOVED FROM THE REGION. TIMING OF EACH
SYSTEM LIKELY TO VARY IN THE COMING DAYS SO ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

PERSISTENCE OF GREAT LAKES ANTICYCLONE WILL RESULT IN QUIET
AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. NORTHERN INDIANA WILL REMAIN ON
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH WHICH WILL KEEP EAST/SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN PLACE. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF AFTERNOON CU IS EXPECTED...BUT
ANY FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU WILL HAVE BASES GREATER THAN 3K FT. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY
WILL ALLOW FOR EASTWARD ADVECTION OF CENTRAL PLAINS THERMAL
RIDGE/MOISTURE AXIS FOR TONIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWER/ISOLD THUNDER CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL IS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT KSBN REMAINS RELATIVELY
LOW THROUGH 12Z...WILL OMIT ANY PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 280747
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
347 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY. THIS HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW
INCREASED MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ANOTHER QUIET DAY WEATHER WISE IS IN STORE WITH MAIN STORY IN THE
SHORT TERM ON THE HEAT/HUMIDITY FOLLOWED BY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT.

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN COMPARISON TO PAST
FEW DAYS WITH GREAT LAKES ANTICYCLONE CONTINUING TO PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THIS PATTERN HAS LED TO A SHARP SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD BE THE CASE ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. RATHER STAGNANT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
MID LEVEL RIDGING/SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE FOR TODAY.
CONTINUED MODERATION OF LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WITH HISTORY OF
SUBSIDENCE AND GOOD DEAL OF INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER MAX TEMPS TODAY IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
80S...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT SOME SPOTS TO HIT THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
WITH EASTERLY FLOW REMAINING WEAK TODAY...HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD
RAP WIND FIELDS CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
A WEAK SYNOPTICALLY MODIFIED N-NE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE...WOULD EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 80S BEFORE SOME COOLING LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE
MODIFIED LAKE BREEZE. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
MOISTURE GRADIENT...HIGHEST AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S
ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST HALF OR SOUTHWEST THIRD...AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE. EXTREME SOUTHWEST
LOCATIONS COULD MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 90S FOR HEAT INDICES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEAT HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP POTENTIAL...ONGOING MCS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGESTING THIS CONVECTION DECAYING ACROSS
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.  GIVEN STOUT MID/UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...HAVE GENERALLY BOUGHT IN ON THIS SCENARIO. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF COLD
FRONT TO MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. A NARROW
BUT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL ADVECT INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER.  IN ADDITION TO LOW LEVEL THETAE
ADVECTION...SOME RESIDUAL VORT MAX ENHANCED BY NORTHERN PLAINS
CONVECTION THIS MORNING MAY BE SLOWLY PROGRESSING THROUGH MEAN FLOW
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATER TONIGHT...SO HAVE CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE TSRA MENTION ACROSS WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

PERIOD WILL START FOCUSED ON WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY ALREADY EXIST ALONG
THE FRONT...SUPPORTED BY WEAK CONVERGENCE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE.
SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS WOULD SUGGEST A DECENT EML POTENTIAL...BUT
GOOD DEGREE OF WARM AIR LIKELY CAPPING MUCH OF THIS OFF...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL. AT THIS POINT MID TO HIGH END CHC (SCT) POPS STILL
WARRANTED WITH CONTINUED PASSING MENTION OF STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM. TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO FROPA MAY BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS TIMING OF FRONT. WARMEST READINGS
SE STILL LOOK MOST REASONABLE.

SEMI ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL WEAK RIPPLES AND SURFACE REFLECTIONS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO
THE REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIST DURING THE PERIOD
IN MORE SUMMER LIKE...ISOL TO SCT CONVECTIVE PATTERN AT BEST WITH
BEST DYNAMICS REMAINING REMOVED FROM THE REGION. TIMING OF EACH
SYSTEM LIKELY TO VARY IN THE COMING DAYS SO ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OVERALL QUIET PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE WITH
GREAT LAKES ANTICYCLONE CONTINUING TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OVERNIGHT
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY FEW-SCT VFR CU DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS SLOWLY BEGIN TO VEER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. PRIMARY LOW
LEVEL MOIST TONGUE WILL ADVECT INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AFTER THIS
FORECAST VALID PERIOD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TO CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO
PERSISTENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 280537
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
137 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HAVE MIXED OUT WELL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SIMILAR PATTERN
SETS UP FOR TUESDAY AND EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP RAPIDLY INTO
THE UPPER 80S BY MID AFTERNOON.

COULD BE PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY FOG IN THE WX GRIDS.

SO IN THE HOT AND NO PRECIP. THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE
INTERESTING HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
LIFT ENE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY...FINALLY TAKING RESIDENCE
OVER HUDSON BAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL FORCE A SHEARING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THIS TRANSITION. LOW
CHANCES FOR WHAT IS LEFT OF UPSTREAM ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
SPILL/SURVIVE SE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER TUESDAY NIGHT-
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITHIN FOLDING THERMAL RIDGE. DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR ISO-SCT THUNDERSTORMS
(NEGLIGIBLE DEEP LAYER FORCING AND MORNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS
LIMITING FACTORS) BY LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD
FRONT AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR/FLOW
LAGGING POST FRONTAL SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM AT BEST (WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH IF STORMS FIRE).

POST-FRONTAL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A DRY/LESS
HUMID THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SEVERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCES WILL DROP THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AS FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT LOWS/HIGHS TO AVERAGE OUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OVERALL QUIET PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE WITH
GREAT LAKES ANTICYCLONE CONTINUING TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OVERNIGHT
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY FEW-SCT VFR CU DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS SLOWLY BEGIN TO VEER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. PRIMARY LOW
LEVEL MOIST TONGUE WILL ADVECT INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AFTER THIS
FORECAST VALID PERIOD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TO CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO
PERSISTENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 280537
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
137 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HAVE MIXED OUT WELL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SIMILAR PATTERN
SETS UP FOR TUESDAY AND EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP RAPIDLY INTO
THE UPPER 80S BY MID AFTERNOON.

COULD BE PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY FOG IN THE WX GRIDS.

SO IN THE HOT AND NO PRECIP. THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE
INTERESTING HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
LIFT ENE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY...FINALLY TAKING RESIDENCE
OVER HUDSON BAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL FORCE A SHEARING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THIS TRANSITION. LOW
CHANCES FOR WHAT IS LEFT OF UPSTREAM ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
SPILL/SURVIVE SE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER TUESDAY NIGHT-
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITHIN FOLDING THERMAL RIDGE. DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR ISO-SCT THUNDERSTORMS
(NEGLIGIBLE DEEP LAYER FORCING AND MORNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS
LIMITING FACTORS) BY LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD
FRONT AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR/FLOW
LAGGING POST FRONTAL SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM AT BEST (WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH IF STORMS FIRE).

POST-FRONTAL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A DRY/LESS
HUMID THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SEVERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCES WILL DROP THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AS FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT LOWS/HIGHS TO AVERAGE OUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OVERALL QUIET PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE WITH
GREAT LAKES ANTICYCLONE CONTINUING TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OVERNIGHT
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY FEW-SCT VFR CU DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS SLOWLY BEGIN TO VEER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. PRIMARY LOW
LEVEL MOIST TONGUE WILL ADVECT INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AFTER THIS
FORECAST VALID PERIOD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TO CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO
PERSISTENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 272253
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
653 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HAVE MIXED OUT WELL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SIMILAR PATTERN
SETS UP FOR TUESDAY AND EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP RAPIDLY INTO
THE UPPER 80S BY MID AFTERNOON.

COULD BE PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY FOG IN THE WX GRIDS.

SO IN THE HOT AND NO PRECIP. THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE
INTERESTING HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
LIFT ENE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY...FINALLY TAKING RESIDENCE
OVER HUDSON BAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL FORCE A SHEARING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THIS TRANSITION. LOW
CHANCES FOR WHAT IS LEFT OF UPSTREAM ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
SPILL/SURVIVE SE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER TUESDAY NIGHT-
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITHIN FOLDING THERMAL RIDGE. DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR ISO-SCT THUNDERSTORMS
(NEGLIGIBLE DEEP LAYER FORCING AND MORNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS
LIMITING FACTORS) BY LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD
FRONT AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR/FLOW
LAGGING POST FRONTAL SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM AT BEST (WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH IF STORMS FIRE).

POST-FRONTAL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A DRY/LESS
HUMID THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SEVERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCES WILL DROP THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AS FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT LOWS/HIGHS TO AVERAGE OUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE GRTLKS WILL RESULT
IN VFR CONDITIONS CONTG AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
CIRRUS FROM TS OVER IA THIS EVE SHOULD ADVECT EAST ACROSS NRN
INDIANA OVERNIGHT BUT PRBLY WILL BE SCT BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE.
SFC HIGH EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST ALLOWING LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW TO VEER SLIGHTLY ON TUE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NRN INDIANA
TUESDAY... BUT QUESTIONABLE IF IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN
MUCH CU... FCST JUST FEW045 FOR TUESDAY AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 272253
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
653 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HAVE MIXED OUT WELL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SIMILAR PATTERN
SETS UP FOR TUESDAY AND EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP RAPIDLY INTO
THE UPPER 80S BY MID AFTERNOON.

COULD BE PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY FOG IN THE WX GRIDS.

SO IN THE HOT AND NO PRECIP. THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE
INTERESTING HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
LIFT ENE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY...FINALLY TAKING RESIDENCE
OVER HUDSON BAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL FORCE A SHEARING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THIS TRANSITION. LOW
CHANCES FOR WHAT IS LEFT OF UPSTREAM ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
SPILL/SURVIVE SE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER TUESDAY NIGHT-
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITHIN FOLDING THERMAL RIDGE. DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR ISO-SCT THUNDERSTORMS
(NEGLIGIBLE DEEP LAYER FORCING AND MORNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS
LIMITING FACTORS) BY LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD
FRONT AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR/FLOW
LAGGING POST FRONTAL SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM AT BEST (WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH IF STORMS FIRE).

POST-FRONTAL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A DRY/LESS
HUMID THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SEVERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCES WILL DROP THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AS FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT LOWS/HIGHS TO AVERAGE OUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE GRTLKS WILL RESULT
IN VFR CONDITIONS CONTG AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
CIRRUS FROM TS OVER IA THIS EVE SHOULD ADVECT EAST ACROSS NRN
INDIANA OVERNIGHT BUT PRBLY WILL BE SCT BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE.
SFC HIGH EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST ALLOWING LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW TO VEER SLIGHTLY ON TUE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NRN INDIANA
TUESDAY... BUT QUESTIONABLE IF IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN
MUCH CU... FCST JUST FEW045 FOR TUESDAY AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 272253
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
653 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HAVE MIXED OUT WELL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SIMILAR PATTERN
SETS UP FOR TUESDAY AND EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP RAPIDLY INTO
THE UPPER 80S BY MID AFTERNOON.

COULD BE PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY FOG IN THE WX GRIDS.

SO IN THE HOT AND NO PRECIP. THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE
INTERESTING HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
LIFT ENE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY...FINALLY TAKING RESIDENCE
OVER HUDSON BAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL FORCE A SHEARING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THIS TRANSITION. LOW
CHANCES FOR WHAT IS LEFT OF UPSTREAM ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
SPILL/SURVIVE SE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER TUESDAY NIGHT-
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITHIN FOLDING THERMAL RIDGE. DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR ISO-SCT THUNDERSTORMS
(NEGLIGIBLE DEEP LAYER FORCING AND MORNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS
LIMITING FACTORS) BY LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD
FRONT AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR/FLOW
LAGGING POST FRONTAL SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM AT BEST (WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH IF STORMS FIRE).

POST-FRONTAL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A DRY/LESS
HUMID THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SEVERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCES WILL DROP THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AS FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT LOWS/HIGHS TO AVERAGE OUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE GRTLKS WILL RESULT
IN VFR CONDITIONS CONTG AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
CIRRUS FROM TS OVER IA THIS EVE SHOULD ADVECT EAST ACROSS NRN
INDIANA OVERNIGHT BUT PRBLY WILL BE SCT BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE.
SFC HIGH EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST ALLOWING LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW TO VEER SLIGHTLY ON TUE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NRN INDIANA
TUESDAY... BUT QUESTIONABLE IF IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN
MUCH CU... FCST JUST FEW045 FOR TUESDAY AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 271939
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
339 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HAVE MIXED OUT WELL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SIMILAR PATTERN
SETS UP FOR TUESDAY AND EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP RAPIDLY INTO
THE UPPER 80S BY MID AFTERNOON.

COULD BE PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY FOG IN THE WX GRIDS.

SO IN THE HOT AND NO PRECIP. THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE
INTERESTING HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
LIFT ENE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY...FINALLY TAKING RESIDENCE
OVER HUDSON BAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL FORCE A SHEARING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THIS TRANSITION. LOW
CHANCES FOR WHAT IS LEFT OF UPSTREAM ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
SPILL/SURVIVE SE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER TUESDAY NIGHT-
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITHIN FOLDING THERMAL RIDGE. DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR ISO-SCT THUNDERSTORMS
(NEGLIGIBLE DEEP LAYER FORCING AND MORNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS
LIMITING FACTORS) BY LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD
FRONT AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR/FLOW
LAGGING POST FRONTAL SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM AT BEST (WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH IF STORMS FIRE).

POST-FRONTAL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A DRY/LESS
HUMID THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SEVERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCES WILL DROP THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AS FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT LOWS/HIGHS TO AVERAGE OUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 122 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 271939
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
339 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HAVE MIXED OUT WELL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SIMILAR PATTERN
SETS UP FOR TUESDAY AND EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP RAPIDLY INTO
THE UPPER 80S BY MID AFTERNOON.

COULD BE PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY FOG IN THE WX GRIDS.

SO IN THE HOT AND NO PRECIP. THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE
INTERESTING HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
LIFT ENE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY...FINALLY TAKING RESIDENCE
OVER HUDSON BAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL FORCE A SHEARING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THIS TRANSITION. LOW
CHANCES FOR WHAT IS LEFT OF UPSTREAM ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
SPILL/SURVIVE SE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER TUESDAY NIGHT-
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITHIN FOLDING THERMAL RIDGE. DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR ISO-SCT THUNDERSTORMS
(NEGLIGIBLE DEEP LAYER FORCING AND MORNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS
LIMITING FACTORS) BY LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD
FRONT AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR/FLOW
LAGGING POST FRONTAL SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM AT BEST (WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH IF STORMS FIRE).

POST-FRONTAL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A DRY/LESS
HUMID THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SEVERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCES WILL DROP THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AS FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT LOWS/HIGHS TO AVERAGE OUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 122 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 271939
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
339 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. HAVE MIXED OUT WELL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SIMILAR PATTERN
SETS UP FOR TUESDAY AND EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP RAPIDLY INTO
THE UPPER 80S BY MID AFTERNOON.

COULD BE PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY FOG IN THE WX GRIDS.

SO IN THE HOT AND NO PRECIP. THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE
INTERESTING HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
LIFT ENE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY...FINALLY TAKING RESIDENCE
OVER HUDSON BAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL FORCE A SHEARING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THIS TRANSITION. LOW
CHANCES FOR WHAT IS LEFT OF UPSTREAM ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
SPILL/SURVIVE SE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER TUESDAY NIGHT-
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITHIN FOLDING THERMAL RIDGE. DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR ISO-SCT THUNDERSTORMS
(NEGLIGIBLE DEEP LAYER FORCING AND MORNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS
LIMITING FACTORS) BY LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD
FRONT AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR/FLOW
LAGGING POST FRONTAL SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM AT BEST (WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH IF STORMS FIRE).

POST-FRONTAL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A DRY/LESS
HUMID THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SEVERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCES WILL DROP THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AS FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT LOWS/HIGHS TO AVERAGE OUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 122 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 271724
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
124 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
DUE TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
PROVIDING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY...WITH MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE RESOLVING ANY LOW END/ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...SHOULD SEE SOMEWHAT OF A REPEAT IN TERMS OF
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM
RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE
HYDROLAPSE PROFILES IN TERMS OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATCHY DENSE
FOG POTENTIAL COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A
FEW SITES HEAD DOWN HOWEVER...WITH VALPARAISO REPORTING 1/2SM AT
07Z. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG MENTION THIS MORNING WITH SIMILAR
RAPID BURNOFF AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF GREAT LAKES ANTICYCLONE WITH PRONOUNCED INSTABILITY GRADIENT
ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. A VERY WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY COMBINED WITH
WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY GIVE RISE TO AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
VERY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING POSSIBLY CLIPPING EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND WEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
(500-1000 J/KG SB CAPES) HAVE CONFINED ANY ISOLATED MENTION JUST
TO EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL. IF ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORMS ARE
ABLE TO FORM AS FAR NORTH AS LOCAL FORECAST AREA...THEY SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE 22Z-00Z TIMEFRAME.

ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHEST HEAT INDICES IN
THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA DUE TO ORIENTATION OF NEAR SFC/LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT WHERE PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY REACH
INTO THE LOWER 90S. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
FOR MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO BETTER INSOLATION WITH POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BE OF A
BIT GREATER COVERAGE. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS MID MS RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT STILL POISED TO IMPACT THE REGION
POSSIBLY AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO A TOUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT STILL LEANING TOWARDS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
BEST UPPER DYNAMICS REMOVED TO THE NORTH AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ALSO EARLY TIMING
OF THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
SWODY3 PLACED EASTERN PORTIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK...WHICH IS
PLAUSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE BACK IN. HOWEVER...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT
WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SET TO MOVE IN EVERY DAY OR 2.
THIS RESULTS IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE PLASTERING THE AREA WITH SLGT
CHC AND CHC POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY PERIOD DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT IN ANY FASHION...BUT WITH
TIMING AND COVERAGE HARD TO PIN DOWN THAT FAR OUT AND SIGNALS AT
LEAST THERE FOR SOME POPS...HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO KEEP GRIDS SIMILAR
TO LAST FORECAST. BEST CHANCE WOULD APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE DOES DROP OUT OF CANADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 271724
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
124 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
DUE TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
PROVIDING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY...WITH MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE RESOLVING ANY LOW END/ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...SHOULD SEE SOMEWHAT OF A REPEAT IN TERMS OF
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM
RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE
HYDROLAPSE PROFILES IN TERMS OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATCHY DENSE
FOG POTENTIAL COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A
FEW SITES HEAD DOWN HOWEVER...WITH VALPARAISO REPORTING 1/2SM AT
07Z. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG MENTION THIS MORNING WITH SIMILAR
RAPID BURNOFF AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF GREAT LAKES ANTICYCLONE WITH PRONOUNCED INSTABILITY GRADIENT
ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. A VERY WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY COMBINED WITH
WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY GIVE RISE TO AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
VERY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING POSSIBLY CLIPPING EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND WEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
(500-1000 J/KG SB CAPES) HAVE CONFINED ANY ISOLATED MENTION JUST
TO EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL. IF ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORMS ARE
ABLE TO FORM AS FAR NORTH AS LOCAL FORECAST AREA...THEY SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE 22Z-00Z TIMEFRAME.

ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHEST HEAT INDICES IN
THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA DUE TO ORIENTATION OF NEAR SFC/LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT WHERE PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY REACH
INTO THE LOWER 90S. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
FOR MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO BETTER INSOLATION WITH POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BE OF A
BIT GREATER COVERAGE. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS MID MS RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT STILL POISED TO IMPACT THE REGION
POSSIBLY AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO A TOUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT STILL LEANING TOWARDS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
BEST UPPER DYNAMICS REMOVED TO THE NORTH AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ALSO EARLY TIMING
OF THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
SWODY3 PLACED EASTERN PORTIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK...WHICH IS
PLAUSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE BACK IN. HOWEVER...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT
WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SET TO MOVE IN EVERY DAY OR 2.
THIS RESULTS IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE PLASTERING THE AREA WITH SLGT
CHC AND CHC POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY PERIOD DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT IN ANY FASHION...BUT WITH
TIMING AND COVERAGE HARD TO PIN DOWN THAT FAR OUT AND SIGNALS AT
LEAST THERE FOR SOME POPS...HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO KEEP GRIDS SIMILAR
TO LAST FORECAST. BEST CHANCE WOULD APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE DOES DROP OUT OF CANADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 271724
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
124 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
DUE TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
PROVIDING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY...WITH MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE RESOLVING ANY LOW END/ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...SHOULD SEE SOMEWHAT OF A REPEAT IN TERMS OF
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM
RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE
HYDROLAPSE PROFILES IN TERMS OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATCHY DENSE
FOG POTENTIAL COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A
FEW SITES HEAD DOWN HOWEVER...WITH VALPARAISO REPORTING 1/2SM AT
07Z. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG MENTION THIS MORNING WITH SIMILAR
RAPID BURNOFF AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF GREAT LAKES ANTICYCLONE WITH PRONOUNCED INSTABILITY GRADIENT
ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. A VERY WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY COMBINED WITH
WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY GIVE RISE TO AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
VERY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING POSSIBLY CLIPPING EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND WEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
(500-1000 J/KG SB CAPES) HAVE CONFINED ANY ISOLATED MENTION JUST
TO EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL. IF ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORMS ARE
ABLE TO FORM AS FAR NORTH AS LOCAL FORECAST AREA...THEY SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE 22Z-00Z TIMEFRAME.

ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHEST HEAT INDICES IN
THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA DUE TO ORIENTATION OF NEAR SFC/LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT WHERE PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY REACH
INTO THE LOWER 90S. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
FOR MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO BETTER INSOLATION WITH POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BE OF A
BIT GREATER COVERAGE. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS MID MS RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT STILL POISED TO IMPACT THE REGION
POSSIBLY AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO A TOUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT STILL LEANING TOWARDS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
BEST UPPER DYNAMICS REMOVED TO THE NORTH AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ALSO EARLY TIMING
OF THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
SWODY3 PLACED EASTERN PORTIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK...WHICH IS
PLAUSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE BACK IN. HOWEVER...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT
WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SET TO MOVE IN EVERY DAY OR 2.
THIS RESULTS IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE PLASTERING THE AREA WITH SLGT
CHC AND CHC POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY PERIOD DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT IN ANY FASHION...BUT WITH
TIMING AND COVERAGE HARD TO PIN DOWN THAT FAR OUT AND SIGNALS AT
LEAST THERE FOR SOME POPS...HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO KEEP GRIDS SIMILAR
TO LAST FORECAST. BEST CHANCE WOULD APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE DOES DROP OUT OF CANADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 271724
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
124 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
DUE TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
PROVIDING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY...WITH MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE RESOLVING ANY LOW END/ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...SHOULD SEE SOMEWHAT OF A REPEAT IN TERMS OF
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM
RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE
HYDROLAPSE PROFILES IN TERMS OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATCHY DENSE
FOG POTENTIAL COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A
FEW SITES HEAD DOWN HOWEVER...WITH VALPARAISO REPORTING 1/2SM AT
07Z. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG MENTION THIS MORNING WITH SIMILAR
RAPID BURNOFF AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF GREAT LAKES ANTICYCLONE WITH PRONOUNCED INSTABILITY GRADIENT
ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. A VERY WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY COMBINED WITH
WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY GIVE RISE TO AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
VERY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING POSSIBLY CLIPPING EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND WEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
(500-1000 J/KG SB CAPES) HAVE CONFINED ANY ISOLATED MENTION JUST
TO EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL. IF ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORMS ARE
ABLE TO FORM AS FAR NORTH AS LOCAL FORECAST AREA...THEY SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE 22Z-00Z TIMEFRAME.

ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHEST HEAT INDICES IN
THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA DUE TO ORIENTATION OF NEAR SFC/LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT WHERE PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY REACH
INTO THE LOWER 90S. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
FOR MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO BETTER INSOLATION WITH POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BE OF A
BIT GREATER COVERAGE. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS MID MS RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT STILL POISED TO IMPACT THE REGION
POSSIBLY AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO A TOUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT STILL LEANING TOWARDS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
BEST UPPER DYNAMICS REMOVED TO THE NORTH AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ALSO EARLY TIMING
OF THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
SWODY3 PLACED EASTERN PORTIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK...WHICH IS
PLAUSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE BACK IN. HOWEVER...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT
WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SET TO MOVE IN EVERY DAY OR 2.
THIS RESULTS IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE PLASTERING THE AREA WITH SLGT
CHC AND CHC POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY PERIOD DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT IN ANY FASHION...BUT WITH
TIMING AND COVERAGE HARD TO PIN DOWN THAT FAR OUT AND SIGNALS AT
LEAST THERE FOR SOME POPS...HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO KEEP GRIDS SIMILAR
TO LAST FORECAST. BEST CHANCE WOULD APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE DOES DROP OUT OF CANADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 271021
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
621 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
DUE TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
PROVIDING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY...WITH MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE RESOLVING ANY LOW END/ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...SHOULD SEE SOMEWHAT OF A REPEAT IN TERMS OF
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM
RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE
HYDROLAPSE PROFILES IN TERMS OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATCHY DENSE
FOG POTENTIAL COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A
FEW SITES HEAD DOWN HOWEVER...WITH VALPARAISO REPORTING 1/2SM AT
07Z. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG MENTION THIS MORNING WITH SIMILAR
RAPID BURNOFF AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF GREAT LAKES ANTICYCLONE WITH PRONOUNCED INSTABILITY GRADIENT
ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. A VERY WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY COMBINED WITH
WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY GIVE RISE TO AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
VERY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING POSSIBLY CLIPPING EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND WEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
(500-1000 J/KG SB CAPES) HAVE CONFINED ANY ISOLATED MENTION JUST
TO EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL. IF ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORMS ARE
ABLE TO FORM AS FAR NORTH AS LOCAL FORECAST AREA...THEY SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE 22Z-00Z TIMEFRAME.

ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHEST HEAT INDICES IN
THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA DUE TO ORIENTATION OF NEAR SFC/LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT WHERE PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY REACH
INTO THE LOWER 90S. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
FOR MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO BETTER INSOLATION WITH POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BE OF A
BIT GREATER COVERAGE. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS MID MS RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT STILL POISED TO IMPACT THE REGION
POSSIBLY AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO A TOUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT STILL LEANING TOWARDS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
BEST UPPER DYNAMICS REMOVED TO THE NORTH AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ALSO EARLY TIMING
OF THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
SWODY3 PLACED EASTERN PORTIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK...WHICH IS
PLAUSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE BACK IN. HOWEVER...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT
WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SET TO MOVE IN EVERY DAY OR 2.
THIS RESULTS IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE PLASTERING THE AREA WITH SLGT
CHC AND CHC POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY PERIOD DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT IN ANY FASHION...BUT WITH
TIMING AND COVERAGE HARD TO PIN DOWN THAT FAR OUT AND SIGNALS AT
LEAST THERE FOR SOME POPS...HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO KEEP GRIDS SIMILAR
TO LAST FORECAST. BEST CHANCE WOULD APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE DOES DROP OUT OF CANADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

WEAK SHEARED UPPER WAVE HAS ALLOWED FOR 5-8K FT CLOUDS TO PERSIST
ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA...AND THUS HAVE LIMITED PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL AT KWFA. TREND THROUGH LATE MORNING SHOULD BE FOR
DECREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS TERMINALS AS THIS WAVE
SLOWLY SINKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH ANY LOW END CHANCE OF ISOLD AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF TERMINALS. PERSISTENT GREAT
LAKES ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE EAST WINDS OF LESS THAN
10 KNOTS TODAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 271021
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
621 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
DUE TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
PROVIDING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY...WITH MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE RESOLVING ANY LOW END/ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...SHOULD SEE SOMEWHAT OF A REPEAT IN TERMS OF
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM
RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE
HYDROLAPSE PROFILES IN TERMS OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATCHY DENSE
FOG POTENTIAL COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A
FEW SITES HEAD DOWN HOWEVER...WITH VALPARAISO REPORTING 1/2SM AT
07Z. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG MENTION THIS MORNING WITH SIMILAR
RAPID BURNOFF AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF GREAT LAKES ANTICYCLONE WITH PRONOUNCED INSTABILITY GRADIENT
ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. A VERY WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY COMBINED WITH
WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY GIVE RISE TO AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
VERY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING POSSIBLY CLIPPING EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND WEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
(500-1000 J/KG SB CAPES) HAVE CONFINED ANY ISOLATED MENTION JUST
TO EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL. IF ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORMS ARE
ABLE TO FORM AS FAR NORTH AS LOCAL FORECAST AREA...THEY SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE 22Z-00Z TIMEFRAME.

ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHEST HEAT INDICES IN
THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA DUE TO ORIENTATION OF NEAR SFC/LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT WHERE PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY REACH
INTO THE LOWER 90S. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
FOR MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO BETTER INSOLATION WITH POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BE OF A
BIT GREATER COVERAGE. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS MID MS RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT STILL POISED TO IMPACT THE REGION
POSSIBLY AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO A TOUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT STILL LEANING TOWARDS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
BEST UPPER DYNAMICS REMOVED TO THE NORTH AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ALSO EARLY TIMING
OF THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
SWODY3 PLACED EASTERN PORTIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK...WHICH IS
PLAUSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE BACK IN. HOWEVER...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT
WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SET TO MOVE IN EVERY DAY OR 2.
THIS RESULTS IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE PLASTERING THE AREA WITH SLGT
CHC AND CHC POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY PERIOD DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT IN ANY FASHION...BUT WITH
TIMING AND COVERAGE HARD TO PIN DOWN THAT FAR OUT AND SIGNALS AT
LEAST THERE FOR SOME POPS...HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO KEEP GRIDS SIMILAR
TO LAST FORECAST. BEST CHANCE WOULD APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE DOES DROP OUT OF CANADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

WEAK SHEARED UPPER WAVE HAS ALLOWED FOR 5-8K FT CLOUDS TO PERSIST
ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA...AND THUS HAVE LIMITED PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL AT KWFA. TREND THROUGH LATE MORNING SHOULD BE FOR
DECREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS TERMINALS AS THIS WAVE
SLOWLY SINKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH ANY LOW END CHANCE OF ISOLD AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF TERMINALS. PERSISTENT GREAT
LAKES ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE EAST WINDS OF LESS THAN
10 KNOTS TODAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 270755
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
355 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS DUE
TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY PROVIDING WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO
THE MID 80S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY...WITH MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE RESOLVING ANY LOW END/ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...SHOULD SEE SOMEWHAT OF A REPEAT IN TERMS OF
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM
RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE
HYDROLAPSE PROFILES IN TERMS OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATCHY DENSE
FOG POTENTIAL COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A
FEW SITES HEAD DOWN HOWEVER...WITH VALPARAISO REPORTING 1/2SM AT
07Z. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG MENTION THIS MORNING WITH SIMILAR
RAPID BURNOFF AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF GREAT LAKES ANTICYCLONE WITH PRONOUNCED INSTABILITY GRADIENT
ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. A VERY WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY COMBINED WITH
WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY GIVE RISE TO AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
VERY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING POSSIBLY CLIPPING EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND WEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
(500-1000 J/KG SB CAPES) HAVE CONFINED ANY ISOLATED MENTION JUST
TO EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL. IF ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORMS ARE
ABLE TO FORM AS FAR NORTH AS LOCAL FORECAST AREA...THEY SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE 22Z-00Z TIMEFRAME.

ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHEST HEAT INDICES IN
THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA DUE TO ORIENTATION OF NEAR SFC/LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT WHERE PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY REACH
INTO THE LOWER 90S. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
FOR MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO BETTER INSOLATION WITH POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BE OF A
BIT GREATER COVERAGE. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS MID MS RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT STILL POISED TO IMPACT THE REGION
POSSIBLY AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO A TOUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT STILL LEANING TOWARDS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
BEST UPPER DYNAMICS REMOVED TO THE NORTH AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ALSO EARLY TIMING
OF THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
SWODY3 PLACED EASTERN PORTIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK...WHICH IS
PLAUSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE BACK IN. HOWEVER...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT
WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SET TO MOVE IN EVERY DAY OR 2.
THIS RESULTS IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE PLASTERING THE AREA WITH SLGT
CHC AND CHC POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY PERIOD DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT IN ANY FASHION...BUT WITH
TIMING AND COVERAGE HARD TO PIN DOWN THAT FAR OUT AND SIGNALS AT
LEAST THERE FOR SOME POPS...HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO KEEP GRIDS SIMILAR
TO LAST FORECAST. BEST CHANCE WOULD APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE DOES DROP OUT OF CANADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG ARE STILL EXPECTED...MAINLY FOR KFWA
EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
TAFS. A VERY SLOW MOVING WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH
PEAK HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST INDIANA...BUT AGAIN BEST POTENTIAL OF ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KFWA BASED ON POSITIONING OF LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT. PERSISTENCE OF LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED LIGHT EAST WINDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 270755
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
355 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS DUE
TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY PROVIDING WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO
THE MID 80S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY...WITH MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE RESOLVING ANY LOW END/ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...SHOULD SEE SOMEWHAT OF A REPEAT IN TERMS OF
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM
RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE
HYDROLAPSE PROFILES IN TERMS OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATCHY DENSE
FOG POTENTIAL COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A
FEW SITES HEAD DOWN HOWEVER...WITH VALPARAISO REPORTING 1/2SM AT
07Z. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG MENTION THIS MORNING WITH SIMILAR
RAPID BURNOFF AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF GREAT LAKES ANTICYCLONE WITH PRONOUNCED INSTABILITY GRADIENT
ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. A VERY WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY COMBINED WITH
WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY GIVE RISE TO AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
VERY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING POSSIBLY CLIPPING EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND WEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
(500-1000 J/KG SB CAPES) HAVE CONFINED ANY ISOLATED MENTION JUST
TO EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL. IF ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORMS ARE
ABLE TO FORM AS FAR NORTH AS LOCAL FORECAST AREA...THEY SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE 22Z-00Z TIMEFRAME.

ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHEST HEAT INDICES IN
THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA DUE TO ORIENTATION OF NEAR SFC/LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT WHERE PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY REACH
INTO THE LOWER 90S. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
FOR MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO BETTER INSOLATION WITH POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BE OF A
BIT GREATER COVERAGE. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS MID MS RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT STILL POISED TO IMPACT THE REGION
POSSIBLY AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO A TOUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT STILL LEANING TOWARDS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
BEST UPPER DYNAMICS REMOVED TO THE NORTH AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ALSO EARLY TIMING
OF THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
SWODY3 PLACED EASTERN PORTIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK...WHICH IS
PLAUSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE BACK IN. HOWEVER...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT
WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SET TO MOVE IN EVERY DAY OR 2.
THIS RESULTS IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE PLASTERING THE AREA WITH SLGT
CHC AND CHC POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY PERIOD DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT IN ANY FASHION...BUT WITH
TIMING AND COVERAGE HARD TO PIN DOWN THAT FAR OUT AND SIGNALS AT
LEAST THERE FOR SOME POPS...HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO KEEP GRIDS SIMILAR
TO LAST FORECAST. BEST CHANCE WOULD APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE DOES DROP OUT OF CANADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG ARE STILL EXPECTED...MAINLY FOR KFWA
EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
TAFS. A VERY SLOW MOVING WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH
PEAK HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST INDIANA...BUT AGAIN BEST POTENTIAL OF ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KFWA BASED ON POSITIONING OF LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT. PERSISTENCE OF LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED LIGHT EAST WINDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 270755
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
355 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS DUE
TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY PROVIDING WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO
THE MID 80S...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY...WITH MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE RESOLVING ANY LOW END/ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...SHOULD SEE SOMEWHAT OF A REPEAT IN TERMS OF
PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM
RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE
HYDROLAPSE PROFILES IN TERMS OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATCHY DENSE
FOG POTENTIAL COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A
FEW SITES HEAD DOWN HOWEVER...WITH VALPARAISO REPORTING 1/2SM AT
07Z. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG MENTION THIS MORNING WITH SIMILAR
RAPID BURNOFF AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF GREAT LAKES ANTICYCLONE WITH PRONOUNCED INSTABILITY GRADIENT
ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. A VERY WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MEANDERING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY COMBINED WITH
WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY GIVE RISE TO AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
VERY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING POSSIBLY CLIPPING EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AND WEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
(500-1000 J/KG SB CAPES) HAVE CONFINED ANY ISOLATED MENTION JUST
TO EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL. IF ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORMS ARE
ABLE TO FORM AS FAR NORTH AS LOCAL FORECAST AREA...THEY SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE 22Z-00Z TIMEFRAME.

ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHEST HEAT INDICES IN
THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA DUE TO ORIENTATION OF NEAR SFC/LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT WHERE PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES MAY REACH
INTO THE LOWER 90S. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
FOR MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO BETTER INSOLATION WITH POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BE OF A
BIT GREATER COVERAGE. QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS MID MS RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY TRANSLATES EASTWARD
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT STILL POISED TO IMPACT THE REGION
POSSIBLY AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO A TOUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT STILL LEANING TOWARDS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
BEST UPPER DYNAMICS REMOVED TO THE NORTH AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ALSO EARLY TIMING
OF THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
SWODY3 PLACED EASTERN PORTIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK...WHICH IS
PLAUSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE BACK IN. HOWEVER...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT
WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SET TO MOVE IN EVERY DAY OR 2.
THIS RESULTS IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE PLASTERING THE AREA WITH SLGT
CHC AND CHC POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY PERIOD DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT IN ANY FASHION...BUT WITH
TIMING AND COVERAGE HARD TO PIN DOWN THAT FAR OUT AND SIGNALS AT
LEAST THERE FOR SOME POPS...HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO KEEP GRIDS SIMILAR
TO LAST FORECAST. BEST CHANCE WOULD APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE DOES DROP OUT OF CANADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG ARE STILL EXPECTED...MAINLY FOR KFWA
EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
TAFS. A VERY SLOW MOVING WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH
PEAK HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST INDIANA...BUT AGAIN BEST POTENTIAL OF ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KFWA BASED ON POSITIONING OF LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT. PERSISTENCE OF LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED LIGHT EAST WINDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 270550
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
150 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MY PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO OVERNIGHT. A VERY LOW CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY PERSIST ON MONDAY BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY.
LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY REACHING BACK INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MINOR CHANGE ON LATE EVE UPDATE WAS TO EXPAND FOG MENTION ACROSS
SRN ZONES. MUCH OF THIS AREA RECEIVED RAIN THIS EVE AND AS
MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MOVES SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT... POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FORECAST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN DRIER E/NE FLOW IN THE NORTH AND
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. REMNANTS OF THE MCS OVER
ILLINOIS IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND SHOWERS ARE STRUGGLING TO
STAY TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHI/GARY ALONG US-30
INTO CENTRAL OHIO - UNSTABLE SOUTH - MORE STABLE NORTH.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION
/ PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUT OF THE AREA...HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POP AND ISOLD SHRA/T IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT LIKE
LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING IT IS NOT TAKING MUCH TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW BEST SHEAR CONTINUES SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
LITTLE TO NO SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS EXPECT THAT ANY
SHOWERS THAT FORM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SLOW MOVING.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG FORMATION
ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS - ALONG AND CLOSE TO US 30. SHOULD DEVELOP A
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
EXPECT TO SEE HEAT INDICES RISE TO NEAR 90 DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS IS WELL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MAINLY
DRY/WARM CONDITIONS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE IN RESPONSE TO A ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HOLD A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE INTO ILLINOIS. CHANCES
FOR MCS REMNANTS (OR ISO-SCT CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN-EVE DIURNAL
CYCLE ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT/THETA-E RIDGE) SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN
FOCUSED WEST OF THE IWX CWA...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF HWY 31 FOR RAIN CHANCES GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
ELEVATED PORTION OF FRONT.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NE INTO ONTARIO AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL FORCE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF FRONT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION...BUT WITH STRONGER DEEPER LAYER FLOW/SHEAR LAGGING
FRONT...AND MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FELT
PRUDENT TO HOLD WITH MID CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

QUIET/LESS HUMID WX EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UNDER
WNW FLOW ALOFT. NON-ZERO PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A FEW LOWER AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG ARE STILL EXPECTED...MAINLY FOR KFWA
EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
TAFS. A VERY SLOW MOVING WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH
PEAK HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST INDIANA...BUT AGAIN BEST POTENTIAL OF ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KFWA BASED ON POSITIONING OF LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT. PERSISTENCE OF LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED LIGHT EAST WINDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 270550
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
150 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MY PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO OVERNIGHT. A VERY LOW CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY PERSIST ON MONDAY BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY.
LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY REACHING BACK INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MINOR CHANGE ON LATE EVE UPDATE WAS TO EXPAND FOG MENTION ACROSS
SRN ZONES. MUCH OF THIS AREA RECEIVED RAIN THIS EVE AND AS
MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MOVES SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT... POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FORECAST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN DRIER E/NE FLOW IN THE NORTH AND
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. REMNANTS OF THE MCS OVER
ILLINOIS IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND SHOWERS ARE STRUGGLING TO
STAY TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHI/GARY ALONG US-30
INTO CENTRAL OHIO - UNSTABLE SOUTH - MORE STABLE NORTH.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION
/ PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUT OF THE AREA...HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POP AND ISOLD SHRA/T IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT LIKE
LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING IT IS NOT TAKING MUCH TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW BEST SHEAR CONTINUES SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
LITTLE TO NO SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS EXPECT THAT ANY
SHOWERS THAT FORM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SLOW MOVING.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG FORMATION
ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS - ALONG AND CLOSE TO US 30. SHOULD DEVELOP A
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
EXPECT TO SEE HEAT INDICES RISE TO NEAR 90 DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS IS WELL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MAINLY
DRY/WARM CONDITIONS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE IN RESPONSE TO A ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HOLD A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE INTO ILLINOIS. CHANCES
FOR MCS REMNANTS (OR ISO-SCT CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN-EVE DIURNAL
CYCLE ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT/THETA-E RIDGE) SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN
FOCUSED WEST OF THE IWX CWA...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF HWY 31 FOR RAIN CHANCES GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
ELEVATED PORTION OF FRONT.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NE INTO ONTARIO AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL FORCE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF FRONT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION...BUT WITH STRONGER DEEPER LAYER FLOW/SHEAR LAGGING
FRONT...AND MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FELT
PRUDENT TO HOLD WITH MID CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

QUIET/LESS HUMID WX EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UNDER
WNW FLOW ALOFT. NON-ZERO PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A FEW LOWER AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG ARE STILL EXPECTED...MAINLY FOR KFWA
EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
TAFS. A VERY SLOW MOVING WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH
PEAK HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST INDIANA...BUT AGAIN BEST POTENTIAL OF ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KFWA BASED ON POSITIONING OF LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT. PERSISTENCE OF LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED LIGHT EAST WINDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 270218
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1018 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 541 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS
EVENING AND FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
60S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MINOR CHANGE ON LATE EVE UPDATE WAS TO EXPAND FOG MENTION ACROSS
SRN ZONES. MUCH OF THIS AREA RECEIVED RAIN THIS EVE AND AS
MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MOVES SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT... POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FORECAST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN DRIER E/NE FLOW IN THE NORTH AND
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. REMNANTS OF THE MCS OVER
ILLINOIS IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND SHOWERS ARE STRUGGLING TO
STAY TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHI/GARY ALONG US-30
INTO CENTRAL OHIO - UNSTABLE SOUTH - MORE STABLE NORTH.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION
/ PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUT OF THE AREA...HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POP AND ISOLD SHRA/T IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT LIKE
LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING IT IS NOT TAKING MUCH TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW BEST SHEAR CONTINUES SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
LITTLE TO NO SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS EXPECT THAT ANY
SHOWERS THAT FORM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SLOW MOVING.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG FORMATION
ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS - ALONG AND CLOSE TO US 30. SHOULD DEVELOP A
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
EXPECT TO SEE HEAT INDICES RISE TO NEAR 90 DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS IS WELL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MAINLY
DRY/WARM CONDITIONS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE IN RESPONSE TO A ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HOLD A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE INTO ILLINOIS. CHANCES
FOR MCS REMNANTS (OR ISO-SCT CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN-EVE DIURNAL
CYCLE ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT/THETA-E RIDGE) SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN
FOCUSED WEST OF THE IWX CWA...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF HWY 31 FOR RAIN CHANCES GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
ELEVATED PORTION OF FRONT.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NE INTO ONTARIO AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL FORCE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF FRONT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION...BUT WITH STRONGER DEEPER LAYER FLOW/SHEAR LAGGING
FRONT...AND MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FELT
PRUDENT TO HOLD WITH MID CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

QUIET/LESS HUMID WX EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UNDER
WNW FLOW ALOFT. NON-ZERO PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A FEW LOWER AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS TAFS. AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVE WITH MAINLY JUST
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST. EASTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT. ALSO WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT, GOING MVFR BR FCST (AS OPPOSED TO SUNDAY
MORNING`S OBSERVED LIFR FG) MAINTAINED AT FWA AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 270218
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1018 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 541 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS
EVENING AND FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
60S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MINOR CHANGE ON LATE EVE UPDATE WAS TO EXPAND FOG MENTION ACROSS
SRN ZONES. MUCH OF THIS AREA RECEIVED RAIN THIS EVE AND AS
MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MOVES SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT... POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FORECAST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN DRIER E/NE FLOW IN THE NORTH AND
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. REMNANTS OF THE MCS OVER
ILLINOIS IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND SHOWERS ARE STRUGGLING TO
STAY TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHI/GARY ALONG US-30
INTO CENTRAL OHIO - UNSTABLE SOUTH - MORE STABLE NORTH.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION
/ PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUT OF THE AREA...HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POP AND ISOLD SHRA/T IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT LIKE
LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING IT IS NOT TAKING MUCH TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW BEST SHEAR CONTINUES SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
LITTLE TO NO SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS EXPECT THAT ANY
SHOWERS THAT FORM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SLOW MOVING.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG FORMATION
ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS - ALONG AND CLOSE TO US 30. SHOULD DEVELOP A
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
EXPECT TO SEE HEAT INDICES RISE TO NEAR 90 DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS IS WELL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MAINLY
DRY/WARM CONDITIONS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE IN RESPONSE TO A ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HOLD A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE INTO ILLINOIS. CHANCES
FOR MCS REMNANTS (OR ISO-SCT CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN-EVE DIURNAL
CYCLE ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT/THETA-E RIDGE) SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN
FOCUSED WEST OF THE IWX CWA...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF HWY 31 FOR RAIN CHANCES GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
ELEVATED PORTION OF FRONT.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NE INTO ONTARIO AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL FORCE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF FRONT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION...BUT WITH STRONGER DEEPER LAYER FLOW/SHEAR LAGGING
FRONT...AND MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FELT
PRUDENT TO HOLD WITH MID CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

QUIET/LESS HUMID WX EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UNDER
WNW FLOW ALOFT. NON-ZERO PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A FEW LOWER AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS TAFS. AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVE WITH MAINLY JUST
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST. EASTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT. ALSO WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT, GOING MVFR BR FCST (AS OPPOSED TO SUNDAY
MORNING`S OBSERVED LIFR FG) MAINTAINED AT FWA AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 270218
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1018 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 541 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS
EVENING AND FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
60S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MINOR CHANGE ON LATE EVE UPDATE WAS TO EXPAND FOG MENTION ACROSS
SRN ZONES. MUCH OF THIS AREA RECEIVED RAIN THIS EVE AND AS
MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MOVES SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT... POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FORECAST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN DRIER E/NE FLOW IN THE NORTH AND
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. REMNANTS OF THE MCS OVER
ILLINOIS IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND SHOWERS ARE STRUGGLING TO
STAY TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHI/GARY ALONG US-30
INTO CENTRAL OHIO - UNSTABLE SOUTH - MORE STABLE NORTH.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION
/ PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUT OF THE AREA...HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POP AND ISOLD SHRA/T IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT LIKE
LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING IT IS NOT TAKING MUCH TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW BEST SHEAR CONTINUES SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
LITTLE TO NO SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS EXPECT THAT ANY
SHOWERS THAT FORM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SLOW MOVING.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG FORMATION
ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS - ALONG AND CLOSE TO US 30. SHOULD DEVELOP A
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
EXPECT TO SEE HEAT INDICES RISE TO NEAR 90 DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS IS WELL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MAINLY
DRY/WARM CONDITIONS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE IN RESPONSE TO A ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HOLD A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE INTO ILLINOIS. CHANCES
FOR MCS REMNANTS (OR ISO-SCT CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN-EVE DIURNAL
CYCLE ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT/THETA-E RIDGE) SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN
FOCUSED WEST OF THE IWX CWA...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF HWY 31 FOR RAIN CHANCES GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
ELEVATED PORTION OF FRONT.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NE INTO ONTARIO AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL FORCE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF FRONT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION...BUT WITH STRONGER DEEPER LAYER FLOW/SHEAR LAGGING
FRONT...AND MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FELT
PRUDENT TO HOLD WITH MID CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

QUIET/LESS HUMID WX EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UNDER
WNW FLOW ALOFT. NON-ZERO PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A FEW LOWER AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS TAFS. AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVE WITH MAINLY JUST
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST. EASTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT. ALSO WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT, GOING MVFR BR FCST (AS OPPOSED TO SUNDAY
MORNING`S OBSERVED LIFR FG) MAINTAINED AT FWA AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 270218
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1018 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 541 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS
EVENING AND FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
60S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MINOR CHANGE ON LATE EVE UPDATE WAS TO EXPAND FOG MENTION ACROSS
SRN ZONES. MUCH OF THIS AREA RECEIVED RAIN THIS EVE AND AS
MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA MOVES SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT... POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FORECAST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN DRIER E/NE FLOW IN THE NORTH AND
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. REMNANTS OF THE MCS OVER
ILLINOIS IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND SHOWERS ARE STRUGGLING TO
STAY TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHI/GARY ALONG US-30
INTO CENTRAL OHIO - UNSTABLE SOUTH - MORE STABLE NORTH.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION
/ PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUT OF THE AREA...HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POP AND ISOLD SHRA/T IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT LIKE
LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING IT IS NOT TAKING MUCH TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW BEST SHEAR CONTINUES SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
LITTLE TO NO SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS EXPECT THAT ANY
SHOWERS THAT FORM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SLOW MOVING.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG FORMATION
ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS - ALONG AND CLOSE TO US 30. SHOULD DEVELOP A
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
EXPECT TO SEE HEAT INDICES RISE TO NEAR 90 DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS IS WELL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MAINLY
DRY/WARM CONDITIONS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE IN RESPONSE TO A ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HOLD A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE INTO ILLINOIS. CHANCES
FOR MCS REMNANTS (OR ISO-SCT CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN-EVE DIURNAL
CYCLE ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT/THETA-E RIDGE) SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN
FOCUSED WEST OF THE IWX CWA...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF HWY 31 FOR RAIN CHANCES GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
ELEVATED PORTION OF FRONT.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NE INTO ONTARIO AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL FORCE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF FRONT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION...BUT WITH STRONGER DEEPER LAYER FLOW/SHEAR LAGGING
FRONT...AND MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FELT
PRUDENT TO HOLD WITH MID CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

QUIET/LESS HUMID WX EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UNDER
WNW FLOW ALOFT. NON-ZERO PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A FEW LOWER AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS TAFS. AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVE WITH MAINLY JUST
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST. EASTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT. ALSO WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT, GOING MVFR BR FCST (AS OPPOSED TO SUNDAY
MORNING`S OBSERVED LIFR FG) MAINTAINED AT FWA AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 270008
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
808 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 541 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS
EVENING AND FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
60S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FORECAST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN DRIER E/NE FLOW IN THE NORTH AND
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. REMNANTS OF THE MCS OVER
ILLINOIS IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND SHOWERS ARE STRUGGLING TO
STAY TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHI/GARY ALONG US-30
INTO CENTRAL OHIO - UNSTABLE SOUTH - MORE STABLE NORTH.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION
/ PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUT OF THE AREA...HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POP AND ISOLD SHRA/T IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT LIKE
LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING IT IS NOT TAKING MUCH TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW BEST SHEAR CONTINUES SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
LITTLE TO NO SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS EXPECT THAT ANY
SHOWERS THAT FORM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SLOW MOVING.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG FORMATION
ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS - ALONG AND CLOSE TO US 30. SHOULD DEVELOP A
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
EXPECT TO SEE HEAT INDICES RISE TO NEAR 90 DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS IS WELL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MAINLY
DRY/WARM CONDITIONS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE IN RESPONSE TO A ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HOLD A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE INTO ILLINOIS. CHANCES
FOR MCS REMNANTS (OR ISO-SCT CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN-EVE DIURNAL
CYCLE ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT/THETA-E RIDGE) SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN
FOCUSED WEST OF THE IWX CWA...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF HWY 31 FOR RAIN CHANCES GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
ELEVATED PORTION OF FRONT.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NE INTO ONTARIO AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL FORCE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF FRONT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION...BUT WITH STRONGER DEEPER LAYER FLOW/SHEAR LAGGING
FRONT...AND MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FELT
PRUDENT TO HOLD WITH MID CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

QUIET/LESS HUMID WX EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UNDER
WNW FLOW ALOFT. NON-ZERO PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A FEW LOWER AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS TAFS. AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVE WITH MAINLY JUST
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST. EASTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT. ALSO WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT, GOING MVFR BR FCST (AS OPPOSED TO SUNDAY
MORNING`S OBSERVED LIFR FG) MAINTAINED AT FWA AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 270008
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
808 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 541 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS
EVENING AND FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
60S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FORECAST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN DRIER E/NE FLOW IN THE NORTH AND
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. REMNANTS OF THE MCS OVER
ILLINOIS IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND SHOWERS ARE STRUGGLING TO
STAY TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHI/GARY ALONG US-30
INTO CENTRAL OHIO - UNSTABLE SOUTH - MORE STABLE NORTH.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION
/ PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUT OF THE AREA...HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POP AND ISOLD SHRA/T IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT LIKE
LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING IT IS NOT TAKING MUCH TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW BEST SHEAR CONTINUES SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
LITTLE TO NO SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS EXPECT THAT ANY
SHOWERS THAT FORM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SLOW MOVING.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG FORMATION
ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS - ALONG AND CLOSE TO US 30. SHOULD DEVELOP A
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
EXPECT TO SEE HEAT INDICES RISE TO NEAR 90 DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS IS WELL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MAINLY
DRY/WARM CONDITIONS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE IN RESPONSE TO A ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HOLD A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE INTO ILLINOIS. CHANCES
FOR MCS REMNANTS (OR ISO-SCT CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN-EVE DIURNAL
CYCLE ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT/THETA-E RIDGE) SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN
FOCUSED WEST OF THE IWX CWA...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF HWY 31 FOR RAIN CHANCES GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
ELEVATED PORTION OF FRONT.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NE INTO ONTARIO AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL FORCE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF FRONT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION...BUT WITH STRONGER DEEPER LAYER FLOW/SHEAR LAGGING
FRONT...AND MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FELT
PRUDENT TO HOLD WITH MID CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

QUIET/LESS HUMID WX EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UNDER
WNW FLOW ALOFT. NON-ZERO PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A FEW LOWER AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS TAFS. AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVE WITH MAINLY JUST
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST. EASTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT. ALSO WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT, GOING MVFR BR FCST (AS OPPOSED TO SUNDAY
MORNING`S OBSERVED LIFR FG) MAINTAINED AT FWA AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 270008
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
808 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 541 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS
EVENING AND FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
60S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FORECAST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN DRIER E/NE FLOW IN THE NORTH AND
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. REMNANTS OF THE MCS OVER
ILLINOIS IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND SHOWERS ARE STRUGGLING TO
STAY TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHI/GARY ALONG US-30
INTO CENTRAL OHIO - UNSTABLE SOUTH - MORE STABLE NORTH.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION
/ PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUT OF THE AREA...HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POP AND ISOLD SHRA/T IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT LIKE
LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING IT IS NOT TAKING MUCH TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW BEST SHEAR CONTINUES SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
LITTLE TO NO SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS EXPECT THAT ANY
SHOWERS THAT FORM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SLOW MOVING.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG FORMATION
ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS - ALONG AND CLOSE TO US 30. SHOULD DEVELOP A
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
EXPECT TO SEE HEAT INDICES RISE TO NEAR 90 DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS IS WELL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MAINLY
DRY/WARM CONDITIONS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE IN RESPONSE TO A ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HOLD A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE INTO ILLINOIS. CHANCES
FOR MCS REMNANTS (OR ISO-SCT CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN-EVE DIURNAL
CYCLE ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT/THETA-E RIDGE) SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN
FOCUSED WEST OF THE IWX CWA...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF HWY 31 FOR RAIN CHANCES GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
ELEVATED PORTION OF FRONT.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NE INTO ONTARIO AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL FORCE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF FRONT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION...BUT WITH STRONGER DEEPER LAYER FLOW/SHEAR LAGGING
FRONT...AND MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FELT
PRUDENT TO HOLD WITH MID CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

QUIET/LESS HUMID WX EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UNDER
WNW FLOW ALOFT. NON-ZERO PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A FEW LOWER AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS TAFS. AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVE WITH MAINLY JUST
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST. EASTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT. ALSO WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT, GOING MVFR BR FCST (AS OPPOSED TO SUNDAY
MORNING`S OBSERVED LIFR FG) MAINTAINED AT FWA AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 270008
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
808 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 541 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS
EVENING AND FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
60S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FORECAST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN DRIER E/NE FLOW IN THE NORTH AND
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. REMNANTS OF THE MCS OVER
ILLINOIS IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND SHOWERS ARE STRUGGLING TO
STAY TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHI/GARY ALONG US-30
INTO CENTRAL OHIO - UNSTABLE SOUTH - MORE STABLE NORTH.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION
/ PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUT OF THE AREA...HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POP AND ISOLD SHRA/T IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT LIKE
LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING IT IS NOT TAKING MUCH TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW BEST SHEAR CONTINUES SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
LITTLE TO NO SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS EXPECT THAT ANY
SHOWERS THAT FORM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SLOW MOVING.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG FORMATION
ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS - ALONG AND CLOSE TO US 30. SHOULD DEVELOP A
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
EXPECT TO SEE HEAT INDICES RISE TO NEAR 90 DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS IS WELL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MAINLY
DRY/WARM CONDITIONS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE IN RESPONSE TO A ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HOLD A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE INTO ILLINOIS. CHANCES
FOR MCS REMNANTS (OR ISO-SCT CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN-EVE DIURNAL
CYCLE ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT/THETA-E RIDGE) SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN
FOCUSED WEST OF THE IWX CWA...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF HWY 31 FOR RAIN CHANCES GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
ELEVATED PORTION OF FRONT.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NE INTO ONTARIO AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL FORCE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF FRONT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION...BUT WITH STRONGER DEEPER LAYER FLOW/SHEAR LAGGING
FRONT...AND MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FELT
PRUDENT TO HOLD WITH MID CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

QUIET/LESS HUMID WX EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UNDER
WNW FLOW ALOFT. NON-ZERO PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A FEW LOWER AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS TAFS. AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVE WITH MAINLY JUST
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST. EASTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT. ALSO WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT, GOING MVFR BR FCST (AS OPPOSED TO SUNDAY
MORNING`S OBSERVED LIFR FG) MAINTAINED AT FWA AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 262215
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
615 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 541 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS
EVENING AND FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
60S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FORECAST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN DRIER E/NE FLOW IN THE NORTH AND
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. REMNANTS OF THE MCS OVER
ILLINOIS IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND SHOWERS ARE STRUGGLING TO
STAY TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHI/GARY ALONG US-30
INTO CENTRAL OHIO - UNSTABLE SOUTH - MORE STABLE NORTH.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION
/ PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUT OF THE AREA...HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POP AND ISOLD SHRA/T IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT LIKE
LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING IT IS NOT TAKING MUCH TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW BEST SHEAR CONTINUES SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
LITTLE TO NO SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS EXPECT THAT ANY
SHOWERS THAT FORM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SLOW MOVING.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG FORMATION
ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS - ALONG AND CLOSE TO US 30. SHOULD DEVELOP A
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
EXPECT TO SEE HEAT INDICES RISE TO NEAR 90 DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS IS WELL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MAINLY
DRY/WARM CONDITIONS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE IN RESPONSE TO A ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HOLD A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE INTO ILLINOIS. CHANCES
FOR MCS REMNANTS (OR ISO-SCT CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN-EVE DIURNAL
CYCLE ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT/THETA-E RIDGE) SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN
FOCUSED WEST OF THE IWX CWA...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF HWY 31 FOR RAIN CHANCES GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
ELEVATED PORTION OF FRONT.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NE INTO ONTARIO AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL FORCE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF FRONT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION...BUT WITH STRONGER DEEPER LAYER FLOW/SHEAR LAGGING
FRONT...AND MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FELT
PRUDENT TO HOLD WITH MID CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

QUIET/LESS HUMID WX EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UNDER
WNW FLOW ALOFT. NON-ZERO PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A FEW LOWER AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 119 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

DRIER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT CU FIELD FROM ADVANCING TO
FAR NORTH TODAY AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW/NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE STILL
TRAPPED...HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER VSBY AT KFWA
AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 262215
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
615 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 541 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS
EVENING AND FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
60S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FORECAST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN DRIER E/NE FLOW IN THE NORTH AND
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. REMNANTS OF THE MCS OVER
ILLINOIS IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND SHOWERS ARE STRUGGLING TO
STAY TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHI/GARY ALONG US-30
INTO CENTRAL OHIO - UNSTABLE SOUTH - MORE STABLE NORTH.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION
/ PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUT OF THE AREA...HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POP AND ISOLD SHRA/T IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT LIKE
LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING IT IS NOT TAKING MUCH TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW BEST SHEAR CONTINUES SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
LITTLE TO NO SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS EXPECT THAT ANY
SHOWERS THAT FORM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SLOW MOVING.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG FORMATION
ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS - ALONG AND CLOSE TO US 30. SHOULD DEVELOP A
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
EXPECT TO SEE HEAT INDICES RISE TO NEAR 90 DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS IS WELL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MAINLY
DRY/WARM CONDITIONS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE IN RESPONSE TO A ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HOLD A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE INTO ILLINOIS. CHANCES
FOR MCS REMNANTS (OR ISO-SCT CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN-EVE DIURNAL
CYCLE ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT/THETA-E RIDGE) SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN
FOCUSED WEST OF THE IWX CWA...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF HWY 31 FOR RAIN CHANCES GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
ELEVATED PORTION OF FRONT.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NE INTO ONTARIO AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL FORCE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF FRONT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION...BUT WITH STRONGER DEEPER LAYER FLOW/SHEAR LAGGING
FRONT...AND MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FELT
PRUDENT TO HOLD WITH MID CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

QUIET/LESS HUMID WX EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UNDER
WNW FLOW ALOFT. NON-ZERO PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A FEW LOWER AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 119 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

DRIER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT CU FIELD FROM ADVANCING TO
FAR NORTH TODAY AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW/NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE STILL
TRAPPED...HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER VSBY AT KFWA
AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 261917
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
317 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND SOUTH OF US
ROUTE 30 THIS EVENING...ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECT TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY TO INCREASE. MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE AREA MID-WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FORECAST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN DRIER E/NE FLOW IN THE NORTH AND
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. REMNANTS OF THE MCS OVER
ILLINOIS IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND SHOWERS ARE STRUGGLING TO
STAY TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHI/GARY ALONG US-30
INTO CENTRAL OHIO - UNSTABLE SOUTH - MORE STABLE NORTH.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION
/ PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUT OF THE AREA...HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POP AND ISOLD SHRA/T IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT LIKE
LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING IT IS NOT TAKING MUCH TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW BEST SHEAR CONTINUES SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
LITTLE TO NO SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS EXPECT THAT ANY
SHOWERS THAT FORM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SLOW MOVING.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG FORMATION
ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS - ALONG AND CLOSE TO US 30. SHOULD DEVELOP A
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
EXPECT TO SEE HEAT INDICES RISE TO NEAR 90 DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS IS WELL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MAINLY
DRY/WARM CONDITIONS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE IN RESPONSE TO A ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HOLD A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE INTO ILLINOIS. CHANCES
FOR MCS REMNANTS (OR ISO-SCT CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN-EVE DIURNAL
CYCLE ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT/THETA-E RIDGE) SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN
FOCUSED WEST OF THE IWX CWA...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF HWY 31 FOR RAIN CHANCES GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
ELEVATED PORTION OF FRONT.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NE INTO ONTARIO AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL FORCE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF FRONT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION...BUT WITH STRONGER DEEPER LAYER FLOW/SHEAR LAGGING
FRONT...AND MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FELT
PRUDENT TO HOLD WITH MID CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

QUIET/LESS HUMID WX EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UNDER
WNW FLOW ALOFT. NON-ZERO PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A FEW LOWER AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 119 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

DRIER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT CU FIELD FROM ADVANCING TO
FAR NORTH TODAY AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW/NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE STILL
TRAPPED...HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER VSBY AT KFWA
AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LEWIS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 261917
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
317 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND SOUTH OF US
ROUTE 30 THIS EVENING...ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECT TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY TO INCREASE. MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE AREA MID-WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FORECAST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN DRIER E/NE FLOW IN THE NORTH AND
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. REMNANTS OF THE MCS OVER
ILLINOIS IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND SHOWERS ARE STRUGGLING TO
STAY TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHI/GARY ALONG US-30
INTO CENTRAL OHIO - UNSTABLE SOUTH - MORE STABLE NORTH.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION
/ PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUT OF THE AREA...HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POP AND ISOLD SHRA/T IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT LIKE
LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING IT IS NOT TAKING MUCH TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW BEST SHEAR CONTINUES SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
LITTLE TO NO SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS EXPECT THAT ANY
SHOWERS THAT FORM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SLOW MOVING.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG FORMATION
ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS - ALONG AND CLOSE TO US 30. SHOULD DEVELOP A
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
EXPECT TO SEE HEAT INDICES RISE TO NEAR 90 DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS IS WELL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MAINLY
DRY/WARM CONDITIONS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE IN RESPONSE TO A ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HOLD A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE INTO ILLINOIS. CHANCES
FOR MCS REMNANTS (OR ISO-SCT CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN-EVE DIURNAL
CYCLE ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT/THETA-E RIDGE) SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN
FOCUSED WEST OF THE IWX CWA...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF HWY 31 FOR RAIN CHANCES GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
ELEVATED PORTION OF FRONT.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NE INTO ONTARIO AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL FORCE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF FRONT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION...BUT WITH STRONGER DEEPER LAYER FLOW/SHEAR LAGGING
FRONT...AND MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FELT
PRUDENT TO HOLD WITH MID CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

QUIET/LESS HUMID WX EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UNDER
WNW FLOW ALOFT. NON-ZERO PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A FEW LOWER AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 119 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

DRIER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT CU FIELD FROM ADVANCING TO
FAR NORTH TODAY AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW/NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE STILL
TRAPPED...HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER VSBY AT KFWA
AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LEWIS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 261917
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
317 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND SOUTH OF US
ROUTE 30 THIS EVENING...ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECT TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY TO INCREASE. MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE AREA MID-WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FORECAST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN DRIER E/NE FLOW IN THE NORTH AND
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. REMNANTS OF THE MCS OVER
ILLINOIS IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND SHOWERS ARE STRUGGLING TO
STAY TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHI/GARY ALONG US-30
INTO CENTRAL OHIO - UNSTABLE SOUTH - MORE STABLE NORTH.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION
/ PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUT OF THE AREA...HAVE INCLUDED LOW
CHANCE POP AND ISOLD SHRA/T IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT LIKE
LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING IT IS NOT TAKING MUCH TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW BEST SHEAR CONTINUES SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
LITTLE TO NO SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS EXPECT THAT ANY
SHOWERS THAT FORM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SLOW MOVING.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG FORMATION
ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS - ALONG AND CLOSE TO US 30. SHOULD DEVELOP A
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
EXPECT TO SEE HEAT INDICES RISE TO NEAR 90 DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THIS IS WELL BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MAINLY
DRY/WARM CONDITIONS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RISE IN RESPONSE TO A ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HOLD A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE INTO ILLINOIS. CHANCES
FOR MCS REMNANTS (OR ISO-SCT CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN-EVE DIURNAL
CYCLE ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT/THETA-E RIDGE) SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN
FOCUSED WEST OF THE IWX CWA...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS
MAINLY WEST OF HWY 31 FOR RAIN CHANCES GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
ELEVATED PORTION OF FRONT.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH/SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NE INTO ONTARIO AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL FORCE A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF FRONT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTION...BUT WITH STRONGER DEEPER LAYER FLOW/SHEAR LAGGING
FRONT...AND MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE...FELT
PRUDENT TO HOLD WITH MID CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

QUIET/LESS HUMID WX EXPECTED POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UNDER
WNW FLOW ALOFT. NON-ZERO PRECIP CHANCES RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A FEW LOWER AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 119 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

DRIER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT CU FIELD FROM ADVANCING TO
FAR NORTH TODAY AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW/NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE STILL
TRAPPED...HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER VSBY AT KFWA
AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LEWIS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 261722
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF US ROUTE 30. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY
RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS WILL DEPART EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS VERY
WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND SUFFICIENT LINGERING NEAR SFC MOISTURE
BEHIND THIS TROUGH HAS LED TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW OBS SITES REPORTING VSBYS DOWN A ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
OR LESS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE AREA
THIS MORNING WHICH MAY LIMIT EXTENT OF LOWER END TYPE
VSBYS...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING THESE MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THIN SOMEWHAT
AS THEY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FOG HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AND WILL INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z.

BROAD SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WILL TAKE BULK OF STRONGER FORCING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A SECONDARY WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AND MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WHICH THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS
ORIENTED ALONG THE US ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD KEEP BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OUT OF LOCAL AREA. CONTINUED WARM NATURE TO 800-600
HPA LAYER SHOULD TEMPER INSTABILITY...WITH BEST AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY SETTING UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES MAY BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE. WHILE CANNOT
COMPLETELY DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF AREA WITH WEAK SECONDARY POOLED
MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE ON THE SCENARIO THAT ENOUGH
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL PERSIST TO SUPPRESS PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WEAK NATURE TO FORCING TODAY AND
SUBTLE MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES COMMENCING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. DESPITE SFC TROUGH PASSAGE...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...AND WITH GOOD DEAL OF INSOLATION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS TO MAKE A
RUN AT THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR TONIGHT...SOME POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR SMALLER SCALE VORT MAX
ENHANCED BY CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
TO TRACK ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BETTER LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY
WEST OF LOCAL AREA ACROSS MID MS RVR VALLEY HOWEVER AND WILL JUST
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT WILL DEFER THIS TO NEXT SHIFT
WITH SOME QUESTIONS AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE IN REGARDS TO EXTENT
OF HIGH CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH MUCH MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR AS HIGH TEMPS MAKE A RUN FOR 90 DEGREES WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT CLOUD COVER FROM MESOSCALE COMPLEXES UPSTREAM COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RESIDE WITH YET
ANOTHER SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SUPERBLEND GETTING SOMEWHAT CARRIED AWAY WITH LIKELY POPS IN MANY
AREAS. WHILE IT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NOW THAT WE ARE BACK
OUT OF THE MUCH WETTER PATTERN...SIGNALS POINT TO MORE OF A SCT
NATURE TO CONVECTION ON FRONTS PASSING THROUGH. CREDENCE TO THIS IS
ESTABLISHED BY MAIN SFC LOW PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...TIMING
FRONT WHICH MAY ARRIVE JUST BEFORE PEAK HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS BEING MAINLY NORTH AS WELL. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN COMING
PERIODS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LESS HUMID AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE WITH
A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

DRIER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT CU FIELD FROM ADVANCING TO
FAR NORTH TODAY AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW/NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE STILL
TRAPPED...HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER VSBY AT KFWA
AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 261722
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF US ROUTE 30. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY
RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS WILL DEPART EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS VERY
WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND SUFFICIENT LINGERING NEAR SFC MOISTURE
BEHIND THIS TROUGH HAS LED TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW OBS SITES REPORTING VSBYS DOWN A ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
OR LESS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE AREA
THIS MORNING WHICH MAY LIMIT EXTENT OF LOWER END TYPE
VSBYS...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING THESE MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THIN SOMEWHAT
AS THEY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FOG HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AND WILL INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z.

BROAD SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WILL TAKE BULK OF STRONGER FORCING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A SECONDARY WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AND MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WHICH THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS
ORIENTED ALONG THE US ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD KEEP BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OUT OF LOCAL AREA. CONTINUED WARM NATURE TO 800-600
HPA LAYER SHOULD TEMPER INSTABILITY...WITH BEST AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY SETTING UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES MAY BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE. WHILE CANNOT
COMPLETELY DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF AREA WITH WEAK SECONDARY POOLED
MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE ON THE SCENARIO THAT ENOUGH
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL PERSIST TO SUPPRESS PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WEAK NATURE TO FORCING TODAY AND
SUBTLE MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES COMMENCING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. DESPITE SFC TROUGH PASSAGE...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...AND WITH GOOD DEAL OF INSOLATION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS TO MAKE A
RUN AT THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR TONIGHT...SOME POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR SMALLER SCALE VORT MAX
ENHANCED BY CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
TO TRACK ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BETTER LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY
WEST OF LOCAL AREA ACROSS MID MS RVR VALLEY HOWEVER AND WILL JUST
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT WILL DEFER THIS TO NEXT SHIFT
WITH SOME QUESTIONS AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE IN REGARDS TO EXTENT
OF HIGH CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH MUCH MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR AS HIGH TEMPS MAKE A RUN FOR 90 DEGREES WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT CLOUD COVER FROM MESOSCALE COMPLEXES UPSTREAM COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RESIDE WITH YET
ANOTHER SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SUPERBLEND GETTING SOMEWHAT CARRIED AWAY WITH LIKELY POPS IN MANY
AREAS. WHILE IT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NOW THAT WE ARE BACK
OUT OF THE MUCH WETTER PATTERN...SIGNALS POINT TO MORE OF A SCT
NATURE TO CONVECTION ON FRONTS PASSING THROUGH. CREDENCE TO THIS IS
ESTABLISHED BY MAIN SFC LOW PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...TIMING
FRONT WHICH MAY ARRIVE JUST BEFORE PEAK HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS BEING MAINLY NORTH AS WELL. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN COMING
PERIODS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LESS HUMID AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE WITH
A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

DRIER LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT CU FIELD FROM ADVANCING TO
FAR NORTH TODAY AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW/NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE STILL
TRAPPED...HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER VSBY AT KFWA
AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 261047
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
647 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF US ROUTE 30. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY
RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS WILL DEPART EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS VERY
WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND SUFFICIENT LINGERING NEAR SFC MOISTURE
BEHIND THIS TROUGH HAS LED TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW OBS SITES REPORTING VSBYS DOWN A ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
OR LESS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE AREA
THIS MORNING WHICH MAY LIMIT EXTENT OF LOWER END TYPE
VSBYS...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING THESE MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THIN SOMEWHAT
AS THEY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FOG HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AND WILL INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z.

BROAD SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WILL TAKE BULK OF STRONGER FORCING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A SECONDARY WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AND MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WHICH THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS
ORIENTED ALONG THE US ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD KEEP BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OUT OF LOCAL AREA. CONTINUED WARM NATURE TO 800-600
HPA LAYER SHOULD TEMPER INSTABILITY...WITH BEST AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY SETTING UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES MAY BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE. WHILE CANNOT
COMPLETELY DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF AREA WITH WEAK SECONDARY POOLED
MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE ON THE SCENARIO THAT ENOUGH
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL PERSIST TO SUPPRESS PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WEAK NATURE TO FORCING TODAY AND
SUBTLE MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES COMMENCING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. DESPITE SFC TROUGH PASSAGE...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...AND WITH GOOD DEAL OF INSOLATION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS TO MAKE A
RUN AT THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR TONIGHT...SOME POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR SMALLER SCALE VORT MAX
ENHANCED BY CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
TO TRACK ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BETTER LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY
WEST OF LOCAL AREA ACROSS MID MS RVR VALLEY HOWEVER AND WILL JUST
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT WILL DEFER THIS TO NEXT SHIFT
WITH SOME QUESTIONS AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE IN REGARDS TO EXTENT
OF HIGH CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH MUCH MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR AS HIGH TEMPS MAKE A RUN FOR 90 DEGREES WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT CLOUD COVER FROM MESOSCALE COMPLEXES UPSTREAM COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RESIDE WITH YET
ANOTHER SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SUPERBLEND GETTING SOMEWHAT CARRIED AWAY WITH LIKELY POPS IN MANY
AREAS. WHILE IT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NOW THAT WE ARE BACK
OUT OF THE MUCH WETTER PATTERN...SIGNALS POINT TO MORE OF A SCT
NATURE TO CONVECTION ON FRONTS PASSING THROUGH. CREDENCE TO THIS IS
ESTABLISHED BY MAIN SFC LOW PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...TIMING
FRONT WHICH MAY ARRIVE JUST BEFORE PEAK HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS BEING MAINLY NORTH AS WELL. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN COMING
PERIODS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LESS HUMID AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE WITH
A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...AND ABUNDANT NEAR SFC MOISTURE
HAS ALLOWED FOR AREAS OF FOG TO FORM ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS
MORNING. THE FOG IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW IN NATURE AND SHOULD
RAPIDLY BEGIN TO BURN OFF AROUND 12Z...WITH IMPROVEMENTS OF LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KFWA EXPECTED AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATEDTODAY
WITH ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM RISK LIKELY REMAINING
WEST AND SOUTH OF TERMINALS. A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING IN ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY SHOULD PROVIDE LIGHT EASTERLY SFC
WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTIES EXISTS REGARDING HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE...SO WILL DEFER
ANY MENTION WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 261047
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
647 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF US ROUTE 30. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY
RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS WILL DEPART EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS VERY
WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND SUFFICIENT LINGERING NEAR SFC MOISTURE
BEHIND THIS TROUGH HAS LED TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW OBS SITES REPORTING VSBYS DOWN A ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
OR LESS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE AREA
THIS MORNING WHICH MAY LIMIT EXTENT OF LOWER END TYPE
VSBYS...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING THESE MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THIN SOMEWHAT
AS THEY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FOG HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AND WILL INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z.

BROAD SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WILL TAKE BULK OF STRONGER FORCING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A SECONDARY WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AND MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WHICH THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS
ORIENTED ALONG THE US ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD KEEP BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OUT OF LOCAL AREA. CONTINUED WARM NATURE TO 800-600
HPA LAYER SHOULD TEMPER INSTABILITY...WITH BEST AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY SETTING UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES MAY BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE. WHILE CANNOT
COMPLETELY DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF AREA WITH WEAK SECONDARY POOLED
MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE ON THE SCENARIO THAT ENOUGH
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL PERSIST TO SUPPRESS PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WEAK NATURE TO FORCING TODAY AND
SUBTLE MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES COMMENCING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. DESPITE SFC TROUGH PASSAGE...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...AND WITH GOOD DEAL OF INSOLATION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS TO MAKE A
RUN AT THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR TONIGHT...SOME POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR SMALLER SCALE VORT MAX
ENHANCED BY CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
TO TRACK ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BETTER LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY
WEST OF LOCAL AREA ACROSS MID MS RVR VALLEY HOWEVER AND WILL JUST
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT WILL DEFER THIS TO NEXT SHIFT
WITH SOME QUESTIONS AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE IN REGARDS TO EXTENT
OF HIGH CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH MUCH MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR AS HIGH TEMPS MAKE A RUN FOR 90 DEGREES WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT CLOUD COVER FROM MESOSCALE COMPLEXES UPSTREAM COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RESIDE WITH YET
ANOTHER SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SUPERBLEND GETTING SOMEWHAT CARRIED AWAY WITH LIKELY POPS IN MANY
AREAS. WHILE IT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NOW THAT WE ARE BACK
OUT OF THE MUCH WETTER PATTERN...SIGNALS POINT TO MORE OF A SCT
NATURE TO CONVECTION ON FRONTS PASSING THROUGH. CREDENCE TO THIS IS
ESTABLISHED BY MAIN SFC LOW PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...TIMING
FRONT WHICH MAY ARRIVE JUST BEFORE PEAK HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS BEING MAINLY NORTH AS WELL. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN COMING
PERIODS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LESS HUMID AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE WITH
A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...AND ABUNDANT NEAR SFC MOISTURE
HAS ALLOWED FOR AREAS OF FOG TO FORM ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS
MORNING. THE FOG IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW IN NATURE AND SHOULD
RAPIDLY BEGIN TO BURN OFF AROUND 12Z...WITH IMPROVEMENTS OF LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KFWA EXPECTED AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATEDTODAY
WITH ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM RISK LIKELY REMAINING
WEST AND SOUTH OF TERMINALS. A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING IN ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY SHOULD PROVIDE LIGHT EASTERLY SFC
WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTIES EXISTS REGARDING HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE...SO WILL DEFER
ANY MENTION WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 261047
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
647 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF US ROUTE 30. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY
RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS WILL DEPART EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS VERY
WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND SUFFICIENT LINGERING NEAR SFC MOISTURE
BEHIND THIS TROUGH HAS LED TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW OBS SITES REPORTING VSBYS DOWN A ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
OR LESS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE AREA
THIS MORNING WHICH MAY LIMIT EXTENT OF LOWER END TYPE
VSBYS...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING THESE MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THIN SOMEWHAT
AS THEY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FOG HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AND WILL INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z.

BROAD SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WILL TAKE BULK OF STRONGER FORCING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A SECONDARY WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AND MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WHICH THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS
ORIENTED ALONG THE US ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD KEEP BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OUT OF LOCAL AREA. CONTINUED WARM NATURE TO 800-600
HPA LAYER SHOULD TEMPER INSTABILITY...WITH BEST AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY SETTING UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES MAY BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE. WHILE CANNOT
COMPLETELY DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF AREA WITH WEAK SECONDARY POOLED
MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE ON THE SCENARIO THAT ENOUGH
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL PERSIST TO SUPPRESS PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WEAK NATURE TO FORCING TODAY AND
SUBTLE MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES COMMENCING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. DESPITE SFC TROUGH PASSAGE...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...AND WITH GOOD DEAL OF INSOLATION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS TO MAKE A
RUN AT THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR TONIGHT...SOME POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR SMALLER SCALE VORT MAX
ENHANCED BY CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
TO TRACK ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BETTER LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY
WEST OF LOCAL AREA ACROSS MID MS RVR VALLEY HOWEVER AND WILL JUST
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT WILL DEFER THIS TO NEXT SHIFT
WITH SOME QUESTIONS AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE IN REGARDS TO EXTENT
OF HIGH CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH MUCH MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR AS HIGH TEMPS MAKE A RUN FOR 90 DEGREES WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT CLOUD COVER FROM MESOSCALE COMPLEXES UPSTREAM COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RESIDE WITH YET
ANOTHER SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SUPERBLEND GETTING SOMEWHAT CARRIED AWAY WITH LIKELY POPS IN MANY
AREAS. WHILE IT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NOW THAT WE ARE BACK
OUT OF THE MUCH WETTER PATTERN...SIGNALS POINT TO MORE OF A SCT
NATURE TO CONVECTION ON FRONTS PASSING THROUGH. CREDENCE TO THIS IS
ESTABLISHED BY MAIN SFC LOW PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...TIMING
FRONT WHICH MAY ARRIVE JUST BEFORE PEAK HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS BEING MAINLY NORTH AS WELL. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN COMING
PERIODS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LESS HUMID AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE WITH
A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...AND ABUNDANT NEAR SFC MOISTURE
HAS ALLOWED FOR AREAS OF FOG TO FORM ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS
MORNING. THE FOG IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW IN NATURE AND SHOULD
RAPIDLY BEGIN TO BURN OFF AROUND 12Z...WITH IMPROVEMENTS OF LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KFWA EXPECTED AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATEDTODAY
WITH ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM RISK LIKELY REMAINING
WEST AND SOUTH OF TERMINALS. A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING IN ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY SHOULD PROVIDE LIGHT EASTERLY SFC
WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTIES EXISTS REGARDING HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE...SO WILL DEFER
ANY MENTION WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 261047
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
647 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF US ROUTE 30. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY
RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS WILL DEPART EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS VERY
WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND SUFFICIENT LINGERING NEAR SFC MOISTURE
BEHIND THIS TROUGH HAS LED TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW OBS SITES REPORTING VSBYS DOWN A ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
OR LESS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE AREA
THIS MORNING WHICH MAY LIMIT EXTENT OF LOWER END TYPE
VSBYS...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING THESE MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THIN SOMEWHAT
AS THEY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FOG HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AND WILL INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z.

BROAD SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WILL TAKE BULK OF STRONGER FORCING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A SECONDARY WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AND MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WHICH THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS
ORIENTED ALONG THE US ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD KEEP BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OUT OF LOCAL AREA. CONTINUED WARM NATURE TO 800-600
HPA LAYER SHOULD TEMPER INSTABILITY...WITH BEST AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY SETTING UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES MAY BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE. WHILE CANNOT
COMPLETELY DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF AREA WITH WEAK SECONDARY POOLED
MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE ON THE SCENARIO THAT ENOUGH
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL PERSIST TO SUPPRESS PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WEAK NATURE TO FORCING TODAY AND
SUBTLE MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES COMMENCING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. DESPITE SFC TROUGH PASSAGE...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...AND WITH GOOD DEAL OF INSOLATION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS TO MAKE A
RUN AT THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR TONIGHT...SOME POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR SMALLER SCALE VORT MAX
ENHANCED BY CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
TO TRACK ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BETTER LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY
WEST OF LOCAL AREA ACROSS MID MS RVR VALLEY HOWEVER AND WILL JUST
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT WILL DEFER THIS TO NEXT SHIFT
WITH SOME QUESTIONS AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE IN REGARDS TO EXTENT
OF HIGH CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH MUCH MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR AS HIGH TEMPS MAKE A RUN FOR 90 DEGREES WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT CLOUD COVER FROM MESOSCALE COMPLEXES UPSTREAM COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RESIDE WITH YET
ANOTHER SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SUPERBLEND GETTING SOMEWHAT CARRIED AWAY WITH LIKELY POPS IN MANY
AREAS. WHILE IT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NOW THAT WE ARE BACK
OUT OF THE MUCH WETTER PATTERN...SIGNALS POINT TO MORE OF A SCT
NATURE TO CONVECTION ON FRONTS PASSING THROUGH. CREDENCE TO THIS IS
ESTABLISHED BY MAIN SFC LOW PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...TIMING
FRONT WHICH MAY ARRIVE JUST BEFORE PEAK HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS BEING MAINLY NORTH AS WELL. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN COMING
PERIODS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LESS HUMID AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE WITH
A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...AND ABUNDANT NEAR SFC MOISTURE
HAS ALLOWED FOR AREAS OF FOG TO FORM ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS
MORNING. THE FOG IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW IN NATURE AND SHOULD
RAPIDLY BEGIN TO BURN OFF AROUND 12Z...WITH IMPROVEMENTS OF LIFR
CONDITIONS AT KFWA EXPECTED AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATEDTODAY
WITH ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM RISK LIKELY REMAINING
WEST AND SOUTH OF TERMINALS. A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING IN ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY SHOULD PROVIDE LIGHT EASTERLY SFC
WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTIES EXISTS REGARDING HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE...SO WILL DEFER
ANY MENTION WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 260800
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF US
ROUTE 30. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS. THE NEXT GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID WEEK
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS WILL DEPART EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS VERY
WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND SUFFICIENT LINGERING NEAR SFC MOISTURE
BEHIND THIS TROUGH HAS LED TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW OBS SITES REPORTING VSBYS DOWN A ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
OR LESS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE AREA
THIS MORNING WHICH MAY LIMIT EXTENT OF LOWER END TYPE
VSBYS...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING THESE MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THIN SOMEWHAT
AS THEY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FOG HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AND WILL INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z.

BROAD SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WILL TAKE BULK OF STRONGER FORCING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A SECONDARY WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AND MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WHICH THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS
ORIENTED ALONG THE US ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD KEEP BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OUT OF LOCAL AREA. CONTINUED WARM NATURE TO 800-600
HPA LAYER SHOULD TEMPER INSTABILITY...WITH BEST AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY SETTING UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES MAY BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE. WHILE CANNOT
COMPLETELY DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF AREA WITH WEAK SECONDARY POOLED
MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE ON THE SCENARIO THAT ENOUGH
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL PERSIST TO SUPPRESS PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WEAK NATURE TO FORCING TODAY AND
SUBTLE MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES COMMENCING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. DESPITE SFC TROUGH PASSAGE...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...AND WITH GOOD DEAL OF INSOLATION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS TO MAKE A
RUN AT THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR TONIGHT...SOME POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR SMALLER SCALE VORT MAX
ENHANCED BY CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
TO TRACK ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BETTER LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY
WEST OF LOCAL AREA ACROSS MID MS RVR VALLEY HOWEVER AND WILL JUST
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT WILL DEFER THIS TO NEXT SHIFT
WITH SOME QUESTIONS AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE IN REGARDS TO EXTENT
OF HIGH CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH MUCH MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR AS HIGH TEMPS MAKE A RUN FOR 90 DEGREES WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT CLOUD COVER FROM MESOSCALE COMPLEXES UPSTREAM COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RESIDE WITH YET
ANOTHER SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SUPERBLEND GETTING SOMEWHAT CARRIED AWAY WITH LIKELY POPS IN MANY
AREAS. WHILE IT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NOW THAT WE ARE BACK
OUT OF THE MUCH WETTER PATTERN...SIGNALS POINT TO MORE OF A SCT
NATURE TO CONVECTION ON FRONTS PASSING THROUGH. CREDENCE TO THIS IS
ESTABLISHED BY MAIN SFC LOW PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...TIMING
FRONT WHICH MAY ARRIVE JUST BEFORE PEAK HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS BEING MAINLY NORTH AS WELL. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN COMING
PERIODS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LESS HUMID AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE WITH
A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WAVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERY WEAK
NATURE TO THIS FRONT...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CALM WINDS
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FOG FORMATION AT TERMINALS. SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MAY MOVE BACK INTO NORTHERN INDIANA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WHICH MAY LIMIT EXTENT OF FOG...BUT FOR NOW WILL AT LEAST
CONTINUE TO CARRY MVFR VSBYS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY
WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TAFS DRY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 260800
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF US
ROUTE 30. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS. THE NEXT GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID WEEK
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS WILL DEPART EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS VERY
WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND SUFFICIENT LINGERING NEAR SFC MOISTURE
BEHIND THIS TROUGH HAS LED TO PATCHY FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW OBS SITES REPORTING VSBYS DOWN A ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
OR LESS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE AREA
THIS MORNING WHICH MAY LIMIT EXTENT OF LOWER END TYPE
VSBYS...ALTHOUGH EXPECTING THESE MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THIN SOMEWHAT
AS THEY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FOG HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AND WILL INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 12Z.

BROAD SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING WILL TAKE BULK OF STRONGER FORCING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A SECONDARY WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AND MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WHICH THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS
ORIENTED ALONG THE US ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY LOW
LEVEL THETAE GRADIENT WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD KEEP BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OUT OF LOCAL AREA. CONTINUED WARM NATURE TO 800-600
HPA LAYER SHOULD TEMPER INSTABILITY...WITH BEST AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY SETTING UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES MAY BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE. WHILE CANNOT
COMPLETELY DISCOUNT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF AREA WITH WEAK SECONDARY POOLED
MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE ON THE SCENARIO THAT ENOUGH
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL PERSIST TO SUPPRESS PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WEAK NATURE TO FORCING TODAY AND
SUBTLE MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES COMMENCING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. DESPITE SFC TROUGH PASSAGE...LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY...AND WITH GOOD DEAL OF INSOLATION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS TO MAKE A
RUN AT THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR TONIGHT...SOME POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR SMALLER SCALE VORT MAX
ENHANCED BY CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
TO TRACK ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BETTER LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY
WEST OF LOCAL AREA ACROSS MID MS RVR VALLEY HOWEVER AND WILL JUST
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT WILL DEFER THIS TO NEXT SHIFT
WITH SOME QUESTIONS AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE IN REGARDS TO EXTENT
OF HIGH CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH MUCH MORE SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR AS HIGH TEMPS MAKE A RUN FOR 90 DEGREES WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT CLOUD COVER FROM MESOSCALE COMPLEXES UPSTREAM COULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RESIDE WITH YET
ANOTHER SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SUPERBLEND GETTING SOMEWHAT CARRIED AWAY WITH LIKELY POPS IN MANY
AREAS. WHILE IT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NOW THAT WE ARE BACK
OUT OF THE MUCH WETTER PATTERN...SIGNALS POINT TO MORE OF A SCT
NATURE TO CONVECTION ON FRONTS PASSING THROUGH. CREDENCE TO THIS IS
ESTABLISHED BY MAIN SFC LOW PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...TIMING
FRONT WHICH MAY ARRIVE JUST BEFORE PEAK HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS BEING MAINLY NORTH AS WELL. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN COMING
PERIODS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...LESS HUMID AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE WITH
A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WAVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERY WEAK
NATURE TO THIS FRONT...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CALM WINDS
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FOG FORMATION AT TERMINALS. SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MAY MOVE BACK INTO NORTHERN INDIANA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WHICH MAY LIMIT EXTENT OF FOG...BUT FOR NOW WILL AT LEAST
CONTINUE TO CARRY MVFR VSBYS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY
WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TAFS DRY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 260553
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
153 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF US ROUTE 30 SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S
IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SURFACE BASED TROF/FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LAKE MI/MI WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS IT PASSES THROUGH
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LOWER. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED AND EXPECT THAT
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 30.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF TONIGHT THE PATTERN QUICKLY SETTLES
INTO PRONOUNCED RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE US. MOST OF
THE STORM SYSTEMS AND SHORTWAVES ARE SHUNTED FURTHER NORTH AND THE
GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER SUBTLE CYCLONIC FLOW AND A RELATIVELY
QUIET PATTERN.

HAVE CONTINUED TO TRIM AND LOWER POPS THROUGOUT THE DAY AND WILL
KEEP THAT TREND GOING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE
TONIGHT EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING AREAS WHERE WATER HAS BEEN POOLING/PONDING FOR THE PAST COUPLE
OF MONTHS. FOG WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A TREND TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIODS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE
OF AN EXPANDING SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. CHANCES FOR MCS
REMNANTS OR CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN/EARLY EVE DIURNAL CYCLE
APPEAR VERY LOW LOCALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVEN WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND PLACEMENT OF PRIMARY LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT WEST FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE THROUGH ILLINOIS.

A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT ENE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
SE INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/MOIST AIRMASS BY LATER WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RENEWED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. COOLER (CLOSER TO
NORMAL) AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WAVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERY WEAK
NATURE TO THIS FRONT...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CALM WINDS
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FOG FORMATION AT TERMINALS. SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MAY MOVE BACK INTO NORTHERN INDIANA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WHICH MAY LIMIT EXTENT OF FOG...BUT FOR NOW WILL AT LEAST
CONTINUE TO CARRY MVFR VSBYS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY
WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TAFS DRY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 260553
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
153 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF US ROUTE 30 SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S
IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SURFACE BASED TROF/FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LAKE MI/MI WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS IT PASSES THROUGH
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LOWER. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED AND EXPECT THAT
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 30.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF TONIGHT THE PATTERN QUICKLY SETTLES
INTO PRONOUNCED RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE US. MOST OF
THE STORM SYSTEMS AND SHORTWAVES ARE SHUNTED FURTHER NORTH AND THE
GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER SUBTLE CYCLONIC FLOW AND A RELATIVELY
QUIET PATTERN.

HAVE CONTINUED TO TRIM AND LOWER POPS THROUGOUT THE DAY AND WILL
KEEP THAT TREND GOING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE
TONIGHT EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING AREAS WHERE WATER HAS BEEN POOLING/PONDING FOR THE PAST COUPLE
OF MONTHS. FOG WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A TREND TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIODS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE
OF AN EXPANDING SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. CHANCES FOR MCS
REMNANTS OR CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN/EARLY EVE DIURNAL CYCLE
APPEAR VERY LOW LOCALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVEN WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND PLACEMENT OF PRIMARY LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT WEST FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE THROUGH ILLINOIS.

A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT ENE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
SE INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/MOIST AIRMASS BY LATER WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RENEWED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. COOLER (CLOSER TO
NORMAL) AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WAVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERY WEAK
NATURE TO THIS FRONT...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CALM WINDS
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FOG FORMATION AT TERMINALS. SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MAY MOVE BACK INTO NORTHERN INDIANA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WHICH MAY LIMIT EXTENT OF FOG...BUT FOR NOW WILL AT LEAST
CONTINUE TO CARRY MVFR VSBYS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY
WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TAFS DRY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 252311
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
711 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 617 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
INTO SUNDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SURFACE BASED TROF/FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LAKE MI/MI WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS IT PASSES THROUGH
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LOWER. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED AND EXPECT THAT
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 30.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF TONIGHT THE PATTERN QUICKLY SETTLES
INTO PRONOUNCED RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE US. MOST OF
THE STORM SYSTEMS AND SHORTWAVES ARE SHUNTED FURTHER NORTH AND THE
GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER SUBTLE CYCLONIC FLOW AND A RELATIVELY
QUIET PATTERN.

HAVE CONTINUED TO TRIM AND LOWER POPS THROUGOUT THE DAY AND WILL
KEEP THAT TREND GOING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE
TONIGHT EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING AREAS WHERE WATER HAS BEEN POOLING/PONDING FOR THE PAST COUPLE
OF MONTHS. FOG WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A TREND TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIODS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE
OF AN EXPANDING SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. CHANCES FOR MCS
REMNANTS OR CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN/EARLY EVE DIURNAL CYCLE
APPEAR VERY LOW LOCALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVEN WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND PLACEMENT OF PRIMARY LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT WEST FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE THROUGH ILLINOIS.

A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT ENE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
SE INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/MOIST AIRMASS BY LATER WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RENEWED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. COOLER (CLOSER TO
NORMAL) AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

WEAK SFC FRONT SINKING THROUGH AREA THIS EVENING AND HAS CLEARED
KSBN. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HERE. PATCHY
MVFR BR POSSIBLE LATE SO ALLOWED THAT TO CONTINUE. KFWA WILL SEE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 02-03Z WITH WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST. WINDS
WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AND BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED TSRA ALONG FRONT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND LIKELY WEST OF KFWA TERMINAL SO NO INCLUSION IN TAF THIS
EVENING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 252311
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
711 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 617 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
INTO SUNDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SURFACE BASED TROF/FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LAKE MI/MI WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS IT PASSES THROUGH
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LOWER. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED AND EXPECT THAT
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 30.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF TONIGHT THE PATTERN QUICKLY SETTLES
INTO PRONOUNCED RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE US. MOST OF
THE STORM SYSTEMS AND SHORTWAVES ARE SHUNTED FURTHER NORTH AND THE
GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER SUBTLE CYCLONIC FLOW AND A RELATIVELY
QUIET PATTERN.

HAVE CONTINUED TO TRIM AND LOWER POPS THROUGOUT THE DAY AND WILL
KEEP THAT TREND GOING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE
TONIGHT EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING AREAS WHERE WATER HAS BEEN POOLING/PONDING FOR THE PAST COUPLE
OF MONTHS. FOG WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A TREND TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIODS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE
OF AN EXPANDING SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. CHANCES FOR MCS
REMNANTS OR CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN/EARLY EVE DIURNAL CYCLE
APPEAR VERY LOW LOCALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVEN WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND PLACEMENT OF PRIMARY LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT WEST FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE THROUGH ILLINOIS.

A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT ENE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
SE INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/MOIST AIRMASS BY LATER WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RENEWED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. COOLER (CLOSER TO
NORMAL) AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

WEAK SFC FRONT SINKING THROUGH AREA THIS EVENING AND HAS CLEARED
KSBN. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HERE. PATCHY
MVFR BR POSSIBLE LATE SO ALLOWED THAT TO CONTINUE. KFWA WILL SEE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 02-03Z WITH WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST. WINDS
WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AND BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED TSRA ALONG FRONT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND LIKELY WEST OF KFWA TERMINAL SO NO INCLUSION IN TAF THIS
EVENING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 252311
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
711 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 617 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
INTO SUNDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SURFACE BASED TROF/FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LAKE MI/MI WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS IT PASSES THROUGH
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LOWER. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED AND EXPECT THAT
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 30.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF TONIGHT THE PATTERN QUICKLY SETTLES
INTO PRONOUNCED RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE US. MOST OF
THE STORM SYSTEMS AND SHORTWAVES ARE SHUNTED FURTHER NORTH AND THE
GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER SUBTLE CYCLONIC FLOW AND A RELATIVELY
QUIET PATTERN.

HAVE CONTINUED TO TRIM AND LOWER POPS THROUGOUT THE DAY AND WILL
KEEP THAT TREND GOING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE
TONIGHT EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING AREAS WHERE WATER HAS BEEN POOLING/PONDING FOR THE PAST COUPLE
OF MONTHS. FOG WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A TREND TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIODS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE
OF AN EXPANDING SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. CHANCES FOR MCS
REMNANTS OR CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN/EARLY EVE DIURNAL CYCLE
APPEAR VERY LOW LOCALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVEN WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND PLACEMENT OF PRIMARY LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT WEST FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE THROUGH ILLINOIS.

A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT ENE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
SE INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/MOIST AIRMASS BY LATER WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RENEWED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. COOLER (CLOSER TO
NORMAL) AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

WEAK SFC FRONT SINKING THROUGH AREA THIS EVENING AND HAS CLEARED
KSBN. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HERE. PATCHY
MVFR BR POSSIBLE LATE SO ALLOWED THAT TO CONTINUE. KFWA WILL SEE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 02-03Z WITH WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST. WINDS
WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AND BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED TSRA ALONG FRONT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND LIKELY WEST OF KFWA TERMINAL SO NO INCLUSION IN TAF THIS
EVENING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 252311
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
711 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 617 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
INTO SUNDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SURFACE BASED TROF/FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LAKE MI/MI WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS IT PASSES THROUGH
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LOWER. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED AND EXPECT THAT
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 30.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF TONIGHT THE PATTERN QUICKLY SETTLES
INTO PRONOUNCED RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE US. MOST OF
THE STORM SYSTEMS AND SHORTWAVES ARE SHUNTED FURTHER NORTH AND THE
GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER SUBTLE CYCLONIC FLOW AND A RELATIVELY
QUIET PATTERN.

HAVE CONTINUED TO TRIM AND LOWER POPS THROUGOUT THE DAY AND WILL
KEEP THAT TREND GOING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE
TONIGHT EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING AREAS WHERE WATER HAS BEEN POOLING/PONDING FOR THE PAST COUPLE
OF MONTHS. FOG WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A TREND TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIODS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE
OF AN EXPANDING SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. CHANCES FOR MCS
REMNANTS OR CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN/EARLY EVE DIURNAL CYCLE
APPEAR VERY LOW LOCALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVEN WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND PLACEMENT OF PRIMARY LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT WEST FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE THROUGH ILLINOIS.

A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT ENE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
SE INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/MOIST AIRMASS BY LATER WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RENEWED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. COOLER (CLOSER TO
NORMAL) AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

WEAK SFC FRONT SINKING THROUGH AREA THIS EVENING AND HAS CLEARED
KSBN. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HERE. PATCHY
MVFR BR POSSIBLE LATE SO ALLOWED THAT TO CONTINUE. KFWA WILL SEE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 02-03Z WITH WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST. WINDS
WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AND BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED TSRA ALONG FRONT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND LIKELY WEST OF KFWA TERMINAL SO NO INCLUSION IN TAF THIS
EVENING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 252224
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
624 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 617 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
INTO SUNDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SURFACE BASED TROF/FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LAKE MI/MI WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS IT PASSES THROUGH
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LOWER. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED AND EXPECT THAT
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 30.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF TONIGHT THE PATTERN QUICKLY SETTLES
INTO PRONOUNCED RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE US. MOST OF
THE STORM SYSTEMS AND SHORTWAVES ARE SHUNTED FURTHER NORTH AND THE
GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER SUBTLE CYCLONIC FLOW AND A RELATIVELY
QUIET PATTERN.

HAVE CONTINUED TO TRIM AND LOWER POPS THROUGOUT THE DAY AND WILL
KEEP THAT TREND GOING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE
TONIGHT EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING AREAS WHERE WATER HAS BEEN POOLING/PONDING FOR THE PAST COUPLE
OF MONTHS. FOG WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A TREND TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIODS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE
OF AN EXPANDING SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. CHANCES FOR MCS
REMNANTS OR CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN/EARLY EVE DIURNAL CYCLE
APPEAR VERY LOW LOCALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVEN WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND PLACEMENT OF PRIMARY LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT WEST FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE THROUGH ILLINOIS.

A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT ENE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
SE INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/MOIST AIRMASS BY LATER WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RENEWED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. COOLER (CLOSER TO
NORMAL) AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA EXPECT TO SEE
CLOUDS THICKEN AND CIGS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO STAY FOCUSED
GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-30. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER TROF WILL WEAKEN AND
BECOME STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECT TO SEE
PATCHES OF FOG FORM...GENERALLY SHALLOW AND PATCHY BEFORE SUNRISE.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 252224
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
624 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 617 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
INTO SUNDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SURFACE BASED TROF/FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LAKE MI/MI WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS IT PASSES THROUGH
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LOWER. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED AND EXPECT THAT
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 30.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF TONIGHT THE PATTERN QUICKLY SETTLES
INTO PRONOUNCED RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE US. MOST OF
THE STORM SYSTEMS AND SHORTWAVES ARE SHUNTED FURTHER NORTH AND THE
GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER SUBTLE CYCLONIC FLOW AND A RELATIVELY
QUIET PATTERN.

HAVE CONTINUED TO TRIM AND LOWER POPS THROUGOUT THE DAY AND WILL
KEEP THAT TREND GOING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE
TONIGHT EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING AREAS WHERE WATER HAS BEEN POOLING/PONDING FOR THE PAST COUPLE
OF MONTHS. FOG WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A TREND TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIODS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE
OF AN EXPANDING SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. CHANCES FOR MCS
REMNANTS OR CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN/EARLY EVE DIURNAL CYCLE
APPEAR VERY LOW LOCALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVEN WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND PLACEMENT OF PRIMARY LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT WEST FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE THROUGH ILLINOIS.

A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT ENE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
SE INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/MOIST AIRMASS BY LATER WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RENEWED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. COOLER (CLOSER TO
NORMAL) AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA EXPECT TO SEE
CLOUDS THICKEN AND CIGS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO STAY FOCUSED
GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-30. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER TROF WILL WEAKEN AND
BECOME STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECT TO SEE
PATCHES OF FOG FORM...GENERALLY SHALLOW AND PATCHY BEFORE SUNRISE.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 252224
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
624 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 617 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
INTO SUNDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SURFACE BASED TROF/FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LAKE MI/MI WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS IT PASSES THROUGH
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LOWER. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED AND EXPECT THAT
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 30.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF TONIGHT THE PATTERN QUICKLY SETTLES
INTO PRONOUNCED RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE US. MOST OF
THE STORM SYSTEMS AND SHORTWAVES ARE SHUNTED FURTHER NORTH AND THE
GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER SUBTLE CYCLONIC FLOW AND A RELATIVELY
QUIET PATTERN.

HAVE CONTINUED TO TRIM AND LOWER POPS THROUGOUT THE DAY AND WILL
KEEP THAT TREND GOING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE
TONIGHT EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING AREAS WHERE WATER HAS BEEN POOLING/PONDING FOR THE PAST COUPLE
OF MONTHS. FOG WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A TREND TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIODS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE
OF AN EXPANDING SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. CHANCES FOR MCS
REMNANTS OR CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN/EARLY EVE DIURNAL CYCLE
APPEAR VERY LOW LOCALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVEN WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND PLACEMENT OF PRIMARY LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT WEST FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE THROUGH ILLINOIS.

A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT ENE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
SE INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/MOIST AIRMASS BY LATER WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RENEWED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. COOLER (CLOSER TO
NORMAL) AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA EXPECT TO SEE
CLOUDS THICKEN AND CIGS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO STAY FOCUSED
GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-30. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER TROF WILL WEAKEN AND
BECOME STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECT TO SEE
PATCHES OF FOG FORM...GENERALLY SHALLOW AND PATCHY BEFORE SUNRISE.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 251900
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
300 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US ROUTE 30. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID 80S. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SURFACE BASED TROF/FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LAKE MI/MI WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS IT PASSES THROUGH
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LOWER. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED AND EXPECT THAT
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 30.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF TONIGHT THE PATTERN QUICKLY SETTLES
INTO PRONOUNCED RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE US. MOST OF
THE STORM SYSTEMS AND SHORTWAVES ARE SHUNTED FURTHER NORTH AND THE
GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER SUBTLE CYCLONIC FLOW AND A RELATIVELY
QUIET PATTERN.

HAVE CONTINUED TO TRIM AND LOWER POPS THROUGOUT THE DAY AND WILL
KEEP THAT TREND GOING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE
TONIGHT EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING AREAS WHERE WATER HAS BEEN POOLING/PONDING FOR THE PAST COUPLE
OF MONTHS. FOG WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A TREND TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIODS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE
OF AN EXPANDING SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. CHANCES FOR MCS
REMNANTS OR CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN/EARLY EVE DIURNAL CYCLE
APPEAR VERY LOW LOCALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVEN WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND PLACEMENT OF PRIMARY LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT WEST FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE THROUGH ILLINOIS.

A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT ENE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
SE INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/MOIST AIRMASS BY LATER WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RENEWED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. COOLER (CLOSER TO
NORMAL) AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA EXPECT TO SEE
CLOUDS THICKEN AND CIGS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO STAY FOCUSED
GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-30. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER TROF WILL WEAKEN AND
BECOME STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECT TO SEE
PATCHES OF FOG FORM...GENERALLY SHALLOW AND PATCHY BEFORE SUNRISE.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS/STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 251900
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
300 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US ROUTE 30. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID 80S. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SURFACE BASED TROF/FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LAKE MI/MI WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS IT PASSES THROUGH
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LOWER. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED AND EXPECT THAT
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 30.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF TONIGHT THE PATTERN QUICKLY SETTLES
INTO PRONOUNCED RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE US. MOST OF
THE STORM SYSTEMS AND SHORTWAVES ARE SHUNTED FURTHER NORTH AND THE
GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER SUBTLE CYCLONIC FLOW AND A RELATIVELY
QUIET PATTERN.

HAVE CONTINUED TO TRIM AND LOWER POPS THROUGOUT THE DAY AND WILL
KEEP THAT TREND GOING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE
TONIGHT EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING AREAS WHERE WATER HAS BEEN POOLING/PONDING FOR THE PAST COUPLE
OF MONTHS. FOG WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A TREND TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIODS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE
OF AN EXPANDING SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. CHANCES FOR MCS
REMNANTS OR CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN/EARLY EVE DIURNAL CYCLE
APPEAR VERY LOW LOCALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVEN WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND PLACEMENT OF PRIMARY LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT WEST FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE THROUGH ILLINOIS.

A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT ENE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
SE INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/MOIST AIRMASS BY LATER WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RENEWED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. COOLER (CLOSER TO
NORMAL) AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA EXPECT TO SEE
CLOUDS THICKEN AND CIGS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO STAY FOCUSED
GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-30. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER TROF WILL WEAKEN AND
BECOME STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECT TO SEE
PATCHES OF FOG FORM...GENERALLY SHALLOW AND PATCHY BEFORE SUNRISE.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS/STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 251900
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
300 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US ROUTE 30. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID 80S. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SURFACE BASED TROF/FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LAKE MI/MI WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS IT PASSES THROUGH
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LOWER. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED AND EXPECT THAT
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 30.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF TONIGHT THE PATTERN QUICKLY SETTLES
INTO PRONOUNCED RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE US. MOST OF
THE STORM SYSTEMS AND SHORTWAVES ARE SHUNTED FURTHER NORTH AND THE
GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER SUBTLE CYCLONIC FLOW AND A RELATIVELY
QUIET PATTERN.

HAVE CONTINUED TO TRIM AND LOWER POPS THROUGOUT THE DAY AND WILL
KEEP THAT TREND GOING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE
TONIGHT EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING AREAS WHERE WATER HAS BEEN POOLING/PONDING FOR THE PAST COUPLE
OF MONTHS. FOG WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A TREND TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIODS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE
OF AN EXPANDING SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. CHANCES FOR MCS
REMNANTS OR CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN/EARLY EVE DIURNAL CYCLE
APPEAR VERY LOW LOCALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVEN WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND PLACEMENT OF PRIMARY LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT WEST FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE THROUGH ILLINOIS.

A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT ENE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
SE INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/MOIST AIRMASS BY LATER WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RENEWED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. COOLER (CLOSER TO
NORMAL) AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA EXPECT TO SEE
CLOUDS THICKEN AND CIGS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO STAY FOCUSED
GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-30. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER TROF WILL WEAKEN AND
BECOME STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECT TO SEE
PATCHES OF FOG FORM...GENERALLY SHALLOW AND PATCHY BEFORE SUNRISE.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS/STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 251900
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
300 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US ROUTE 30. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID 80S. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SURFACE BASED TROF/FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LAKE MI/MI WILL
GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS IT PASSES THROUGH
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LOWER. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED AND EXPECT THAT
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 30.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF TONIGHT THE PATTERN QUICKLY SETTLES
INTO PRONOUNCED RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE US. MOST OF
THE STORM SYSTEMS AND SHORTWAVES ARE SHUNTED FURTHER NORTH AND THE
GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNDER SUBTLE CYCLONIC FLOW AND A RELATIVELY
QUIET PATTERN.

HAVE CONTINUED TO TRIM AND LOWER POPS THROUGOUT THE DAY AND WILL
KEEP THAT TREND GOING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE
TONIGHT EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LYING AREAS WHERE WATER HAS BEEN POOLING/PONDING FOR THE PAST COUPLE
OF MONTHS. FOG WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A TREND TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIODS AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE
OF AN EXPANDING SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE. CHANCES FOR MCS
REMNANTS OR CONVECTION TIED TO THE AFTN/EARLY EVE DIURNAL CYCLE
APPEAR VERY LOW LOCALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVEN WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND PLACEMENT OF PRIMARY LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT WEST FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST SSE THROUGH ILLINOIS.

A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL LIFT ENE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
SE INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/MOIST AIRMASS BY LATER WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RENEWED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. COOLER (CLOSER TO
NORMAL) AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA EXPECT TO SEE
CLOUDS THICKEN AND CIGS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO STAY FOCUSED
GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-30. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER TROF WILL WEAKEN AND
BECOME STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECT TO SEE
PATCHES OF FOG FORM...GENERALLY SHALLOW AND PATCHY BEFORE SUNRISE.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS/STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 251732
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
132 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US ROUTE 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR TODAY/TONIGHT
WITH APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF
INTEREST.  SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTING 5-6K FT
CLOUD DECK WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS LIKELY MARKING THE
LEADING EDGE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL WORK FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION TO THIS POINT
HAS BEEN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER FORCING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...AT LEAST SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED CIN SHOULD PERSIST INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING
TO ACCOUNT FOR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF FORCING WITH GREAT LAKES SHORT
WAVE AND SOME INCREASE IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW THIS
AFTERNOON. GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST
WHILE PREFRONTAL-TROUGH TYPE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. RATHER WARMISH 800-600 HPA PROFILES MAY EVEN
ARGUE FOR SOME SURFACE BASED CIN LINGERING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN
TERMS OF INSTABILITY PROFILES...NAM MAY BE EXHIBITING A TYPICAL
MOIST BIAS AND A BIT OVERDONE WITH INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE.
NONETHELESS WOULD EXPECT MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500-3000 J/KG
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM CORNBELT CONVECTION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
BROKEN STRATOCU FIELD FORMING MAY TEMPER THIS INSTABILITY A BIT
HOWEVER. WITH SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW INSTABILITY WILL EVOLVE AND
WEAK FORCING THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ONLY MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL
SHEAR PROFILES MAY SUPPORT SOME MULTICELL ORGANIZATION IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR
TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS THIS EVENING
WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF SLIGHTLY BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT MAX FROM CENTRAL PLAINS MORNING
CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE FLOW THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH STEERING FLOW WOULD SUGGEST BETTER CHANCE JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON CLOSED LOW DIGGING INTO
THE PAC NW SUNDAY... THEN LIFTING NE TO WRN ONTARIO WED AND TO NRN
QUEBEC FRIDAY. EXPECT AMPLIFICATION OF PLAINS RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY WITH SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE WRN GRTLKS MON-TUE. CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MIGRATORY CLOSED LOW MOVG ACROSS ERN CANADA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR
AREA WED BRINGING A GOOD CHC OF TSTMS. POST-FRONTAL COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEEK WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

MAIN DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS THIS FCST PERIOD COMES EARLY ON WITH
ECMWF INDICATING WEAKER SFC HIGH OVER THE GRTLKS SUNDAY-MONDAY
ALLOWING WK SHRTWV`S MOVG OVER TOP OF PLAINS RIDGE TO IMPACT OUR CWA
WITH POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IN DEFERENCE TO THIS SOLUTION AND PREV
FCST LEFT LOW CHC POPS IN SW PORTION OF CWA THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY AS UPR RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH... HWVR WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN THE AREA
STAYED CLOSE TO COOLER MODEL CONSENSUS IN THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPS
SHOULD DROP BACK TO A BIT BLO NORMAL LATE WEEK FOLLOWING FROPA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA EXPECT TO SEE
CLOUDS THICKEN AND CIGS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO STAY FOCUSED
GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-30. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER TROF WILL WEAKEN AND
BECOME STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECT TO SEE
PATCHES OF FOG FORM...GENERALLY SHALLOW AND PATCHY BEFORE SUNRISE.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 251732
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
132 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US ROUTE 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR TODAY/TONIGHT
WITH APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF
INTEREST.  SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTING 5-6K FT
CLOUD DECK WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS LIKELY MARKING THE
LEADING EDGE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL WORK FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION TO THIS POINT
HAS BEEN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER FORCING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...AT LEAST SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED CIN SHOULD PERSIST INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING
TO ACCOUNT FOR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF FORCING WITH GREAT LAKES SHORT
WAVE AND SOME INCREASE IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW THIS
AFTERNOON. GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST
WHILE PREFRONTAL-TROUGH TYPE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. RATHER WARMISH 800-600 HPA PROFILES MAY EVEN
ARGUE FOR SOME SURFACE BASED CIN LINGERING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN
TERMS OF INSTABILITY PROFILES...NAM MAY BE EXHIBITING A TYPICAL
MOIST BIAS AND A BIT OVERDONE WITH INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE.
NONETHELESS WOULD EXPECT MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500-3000 J/KG
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM CORNBELT CONVECTION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
BROKEN STRATOCU FIELD FORMING MAY TEMPER THIS INSTABILITY A BIT
HOWEVER. WITH SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW INSTABILITY WILL EVOLVE AND
WEAK FORCING THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ONLY MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL
SHEAR PROFILES MAY SUPPORT SOME MULTICELL ORGANIZATION IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR
TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS THIS EVENING
WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF SLIGHTLY BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT MAX FROM CENTRAL PLAINS MORNING
CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE FLOW THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH STEERING FLOW WOULD SUGGEST BETTER CHANCE JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON CLOSED LOW DIGGING INTO
THE PAC NW SUNDAY... THEN LIFTING NE TO WRN ONTARIO WED AND TO NRN
QUEBEC FRIDAY. EXPECT AMPLIFICATION OF PLAINS RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY WITH SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE WRN GRTLKS MON-TUE. CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MIGRATORY CLOSED LOW MOVG ACROSS ERN CANADA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR
AREA WED BRINGING A GOOD CHC OF TSTMS. POST-FRONTAL COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEEK WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

MAIN DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS THIS FCST PERIOD COMES EARLY ON WITH
ECMWF INDICATING WEAKER SFC HIGH OVER THE GRTLKS SUNDAY-MONDAY
ALLOWING WK SHRTWV`S MOVG OVER TOP OF PLAINS RIDGE TO IMPACT OUR CWA
WITH POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IN DEFERENCE TO THIS SOLUTION AND PREV
FCST LEFT LOW CHC POPS IN SW PORTION OF CWA THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY AS UPR RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH... HWVR WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN THE AREA
STAYED CLOSE TO COOLER MODEL CONSENSUS IN THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPS
SHOULD DROP BACK TO A BIT BLO NORMAL LATE WEEK FOLLOWING FROPA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA EXPECT TO SEE
CLOUDS THICKEN AND CIGS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO STAY FOCUSED
GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-30. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER TROF WILL WEAKEN AND
BECOME STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECT TO SEE
PATCHES OF FOG FORM...GENERALLY SHALLOW AND PATCHY BEFORE SUNRISE.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 251732
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
132 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US ROUTE 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR TODAY/TONIGHT
WITH APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF
INTEREST.  SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTING 5-6K FT
CLOUD DECK WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS LIKELY MARKING THE
LEADING EDGE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL WORK FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION TO THIS POINT
HAS BEEN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER FORCING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...AT LEAST SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED CIN SHOULD PERSIST INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING
TO ACCOUNT FOR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF FORCING WITH GREAT LAKES SHORT
WAVE AND SOME INCREASE IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW THIS
AFTERNOON. GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST
WHILE PREFRONTAL-TROUGH TYPE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. RATHER WARMISH 800-600 HPA PROFILES MAY EVEN
ARGUE FOR SOME SURFACE BASED CIN LINGERING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN
TERMS OF INSTABILITY PROFILES...NAM MAY BE EXHIBITING A TYPICAL
MOIST BIAS AND A BIT OVERDONE WITH INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE.
NONETHELESS WOULD EXPECT MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500-3000 J/KG
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM CORNBELT CONVECTION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
BROKEN STRATOCU FIELD FORMING MAY TEMPER THIS INSTABILITY A BIT
HOWEVER. WITH SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW INSTABILITY WILL EVOLVE AND
WEAK FORCING THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ONLY MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL
SHEAR PROFILES MAY SUPPORT SOME MULTICELL ORGANIZATION IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR
TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS THIS EVENING
WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF SLIGHTLY BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT MAX FROM CENTRAL PLAINS MORNING
CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE FLOW THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH STEERING FLOW WOULD SUGGEST BETTER CHANCE JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON CLOSED LOW DIGGING INTO
THE PAC NW SUNDAY... THEN LIFTING NE TO WRN ONTARIO WED AND TO NRN
QUEBEC FRIDAY. EXPECT AMPLIFICATION OF PLAINS RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY WITH SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE WRN GRTLKS MON-TUE. CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MIGRATORY CLOSED LOW MOVG ACROSS ERN CANADA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR
AREA WED BRINGING A GOOD CHC OF TSTMS. POST-FRONTAL COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEEK WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

MAIN DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS THIS FCST PERIOD COMES EARLY ON WITH
ECMWF INDICATING WEAKER SFC HIGH OVER THE GRTLKS SUNDAY-MONDAY
ALLOWING WK SHRTWV`S MOVG OVER TOP OF PLAINS RIDGE TO IMPACT OUR CWA
WITH POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IN DEFERENCE TO THIS SOLUTION AND PREV
FCST LEFT LOW CHC POPS IN SW PORTION OF CWA THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY AS UPR RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH... HWVR WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN THE AREA
STAYED CLOSE TO COOLER MODEL CONSENSUS IN THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPS
SHOULD DROP BACK TO A BIT BLO NORMAL LATE WEEK FOLLOWING FROPA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA EXPECT TO SEE
CLOUDS THICKEN AND CIGS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO STAY FOCUSED
GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-30. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER TROF WILL WEAKEN AND
BECOME STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECT TO SEE
PATCHES OF FOG FORM...GENERALLY SHALLOW AND PATCHY BEFORE SUNRISE.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 251732
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
132 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US ROUTE 30. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR TODAY/TONIGHT
WITH APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF
INTEREST.  SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTING 5-6K FT
CLOUD DECK WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS LIKELY MARKING THE
LEADING EDGE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL WORK FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION TO THIS POINT
HAS BEEN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER FORCING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...AT LEAST SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED CIN SHOULD PERSIST INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING
TO ACCOUNT FOR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF FORCING WITH GREAT LAKES SHORT
WAVE AND SOME INCREASE IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW THIS
AFTERNOON. GREAT LAKES SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST
WHILE PREFRONTAL-TROUGH TYPE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. RATHER WARMISH 800-600 HPA PROFILES MAY EVEN
ARGUE FOR SOME SURFACE BASED CIN LINGERING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN
TERMS OF INSTABILITY PROFILES...NAM MAY BE EXHIBITING A TYPICAL
MOIST BIAS AND A BIT OVERDONE WITH INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE.
NONETHELESS WOULD EXPECT MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500-3000 J/KG
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST MAGNITUDES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM CORNBELT CONVECTION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
BROKEN STRATOCU FIELD FORMING MAY TEMPER THIS INSTABILITY A BIT
HOWEVER. WITH SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW INSTABILITY WILL EVOLVE AND
WEAK FORCING THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ONLY MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL
SHEAR PROFILES MAY SUPPORT SOME MULTICELL ORGANIZATION IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR
TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS THIS EVENING
WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF SLIGHTLY BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT MAX FROM CENTRAL PLAINS MORNING
CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE FLOW THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH STEERING FLOW WOULD SUGGEST BETTER CHANCE JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON CLOSED LOW DIGGING INTO
THE PAC NW SUNDAY... THEN LIFTING NE TO WRN ONTARIO WED AND TO NRN
QUEBEC FRIDAY. EXPECT AMPLIFICATION OF PLAINS RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY WITH SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE WRN GRTLKS MON-TUE. CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MIGRATORY CLOSED LOW MOVG ACROSS ERN CANADA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR
AREA WED BRINGING A GOOD CHC OF TSTMS. POST-FRONTAL COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEEK WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH
BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

MAIN DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS THIS FCST PERIOD COMES EARLY ON WITH
ECMWF INDICATING WEAKER SFC HIGH OVER THE GRTLKS SUNDAY-MONDAY
ALLOWING WK SHRTWV`S MOVG OVER TOP OF PLAINS RIDGE TO IMPACT OUR CWA
WITH POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION. IN DEFERENCE TO THIS SOLUTION AND PREV
FCST LEFT LOW CHC POPS IN SW PORTION OF CWA THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY AS UPR RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH... HWVR WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN THE AREA
STAYED CLOSE TO COOLER MODEL CONSENSUS IN THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPS
SHOULD DROP BACK TO A BIT BLO NORMAL LATE WEEK FOLLOWING FROPA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM ILLINOIS INTO INDIANA EXPECT TO SEE
CLOUDS THICKEN AND CIGS LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO STAY FOCUSED
GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-30. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER TROF WILL WEAKEN AND
BECOME STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECT TO SEE
PATCHES OF FOG FORM...GENERALLY SHALLOW AND PATCHY BEFORE SUNRISE.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




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