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000
FXUS63 KIWX 041036
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
636 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 80 WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY... WITH SHOWERS LIKELY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN OH WERE MOVG
EAST THIS MORNING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE W-NW
IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH CROSS-OVER TEMPS IN THE U50S
BEING EXCEEDED FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM SO HAVE ADDED TO FCST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.

RIDGE ALOFT OVER MN/IA EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY
AND MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX TODAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE CONTS TO MOVE
IN. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY YDAY BUT WAS THICKER TO THE NW JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS... AND THIS THICKER SMOKE LAYER COULD MOVE
OVER OUR AREA TODAY LIMITING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND WARMING ALOFT FOR HIGHS AROUND 80.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL CONT TONIGHT AS UPR RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH BLO NORMAL LOWS IN
THE U50S/L60S. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN BUT
QUESTIONABLE AFTER A DAY OF NEARLY FULL SUN IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DECENT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID-LATE WEEK THE
HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD...

RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ENSURE A MAINLY
DRY/WARM SUNDAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE INTERFACE IN NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH LACKING
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUGGEST HOLDING WITH A DRY FCST THE
WAY TO GO ATTM. MONDAY VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS.

A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOLD OVER OF
MODEST/NARROW THETA-E RIDGE (PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG
BOUNDARY PER LATEST GUIDANCE) SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. THIS IN TANDEM WITH POOR DIURNAL
TIMING AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SFC OBS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN INDIANA
ATTM... BUT STILL VFR AT SBN/FWA TERMINALS. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT MOISTURE IS A LITTLE DEPER AT FWA THAN SBN... BUT EVEN THIS
TERMINAL IS CURRENTLY VFR SO DON`T PLAN TO EXTEND TEMPO BR MENTION
INTO THIS TAF PERIOD. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS A RATHER DRY/STABLE AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGGED TO STILL BE A LITTLE GREATER
AT FWA THAN SBN... BUT HELD OFF INTRODUCING BR TO EITHER TAF ATTM
IN ORDER TO SEE HOW THIS MORNING`S FOG/VSBYS PLAY OUT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 041036
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
636 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 80 WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY... WITH SHOWERS LIKELY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN OH WERE MOVG
EAST THIS MORNING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE W-NW
IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH CROSS-OVER TEMPS IN THE U50S
BEING EXCEEDED FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM SO HAVE ADDED TO FCST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.

RIDGE ALOFT OVER MN/IA EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY
AND MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX TODAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE CONTS TO MOVE
IN. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY YDAY BUT WAS THICKER TO THE NW JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS... AND THIS THICKER SMOKE LAYER COULD MOVE
OVER OUR AREA TODAY LIMITING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND WARMING ALOFT FOR HIGHS AROUND 80.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL CONT TONIGHT AS UPR RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH BLO NORMAL LOWS IN
THE U50S/L60S. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN BUT
QUESTIONABLE AFTER A DAY OF NEARLY FULL SUN IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DECENT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID-LATE WEEK THE
HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD...

RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ENSURE A MAINLY
DRY/WARM SUNDAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE INTERFACE IN NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH LACKING
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUGGEST HOLDING WITH A DRY FCST THE
WAY TO GO ATTM. MONDAY VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS.

A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOLD OVER OF
MODEST/NARROW THETA-E RIDGE (PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG
BOUNDARY PER LATEST GUIDANCE) SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. THIS IN TANDEM WITH POOR DIURNAL
TIMING AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SFC OBS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN INDIANA
ATTM... BUT STILL VFR AT SBN/FWA TERMINALS. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT MOISTURE IS A LITTLE DEPER AT FWA THAN SBN... BUT EVEN THIS
TERMINAL IS CURRENTLY VFR SO DON`T PLAN TO EXTEND TEMPO BR MENTION
INTO THIS TAF PERIOD. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS A RATHER DRY/STABLE AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGGED TO STILL BE A LITTLE GREATER
AT FWA THAN SBN... BUT HELD OFF INTRODUCING BR TO EITHER TAF ATTM
IN ORDER TO SEE HOW THIS MORNING`S FOG/VSBYS PLAY OUT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 040749
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
349 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 80 WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY... WITH SHOWERS LIKELY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN OH WERE MOVG
EAST THIS MORNING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE W-NW
IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH CROSS-OVER TEMPS IN THE U50S
BEING EXCEEDED FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM SO HAVE ADDED TO FCST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.

RIDGE ALOFT OVER MN/IA EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY
AND MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX TODAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE CONTS TO MOVE
IN. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY YDAY BUT WAS THICKER TO THE NW JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS... AND THIS THICKER SMOKE LAYER COULD MOVE
OVER OUR AREA TODAY LIMITING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND WARMING ALOFT FOR HIGHS AROUND 80.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL CONT TONIGHT AS UPR RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH BLO NORMAL LOWS IN
THE U50S/L60S. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN BUT
QUESTIONABLE AFTER A DAY OF NEARLY FULL SUN IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DECENT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID-LATE WEEK THE
HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD...

RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ENSURE A MAINLY
DRY/WARM SUNDAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE INTERFACE IN NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH LACKING
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUGGEST HOLDING WITH A DRY FCST THE
WAY TO GO ATTM. MONDAY VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS.

A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOLD OVER OF
MODEST/NARROW THETA-E RIDGE (PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG
BOUNDARY PER LATEST GUIDANCE) SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. THIS IN TANDEM WITH POOR DIURNAL
TIMING AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 1246 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NRN INDIANA THIS MORNING AS
SFC LOW OVER SRN OH MOVES TO THE EAST. PATCHY RADIATIONAL COOLING
BR EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BEST CHC OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS
AT FWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A BIT HIGHER. SFC
HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD MIX
DOWN TO THE SFC BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT. RIDGING/WARMING
ALOFT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO CLOUD
COVER. SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM INDIANA TO OHIO TONIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR WITH GRADIENT WK ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG/BR PSBL
OVERNIGHT BUT NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 040749
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
349 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 80 WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY... WITH SHOWERS LIKELY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN OH WERE MOVG
EAST THIS MORNING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE W-NW
IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH CROSS-OVER TEMPS IN THE U50S
BEING EXCEEDED FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM SO HAVE ADDED TO FCST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.

RIDGE ALOFT OVER MN/IA EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY
AND MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX TODAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE CONTS TO MOVE
IN. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY YDAY BUT WAS THICKER TO THE NW JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS... AND THIS THICKER SMOKE LAYER COULD MOVE
OVER OUR AREA TODAY LIMITING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND WARMING ALOFT FOR HIGHS AROUND 80.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL CONT TONIGHT AS UPR RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH BLO NORMAL LOWS IN
THE U50S/L60S. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN BUT
QUESTIONABLE AFTER A DAY OF NEARLY FULL SUN IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DECENT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID-LATE WEEK THE
HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD...

RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ENSURE A MAINLY
DRY/WARM SUNDAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE INTERFACE IN NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH LACKING
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUGGEST HOLDING WITH A DRY FCST THE
WAY TO GO ATTM. MONDAY VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS.

A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOLD OVER OF
MODEST/NARROW THETA-E RIDGE (PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG
BOUNDARY PER LATEST GUIDANCE) SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. THIS IN TANDEM WITH POOR DIURNAL
TIMING AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 1246 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NRN INDIANA THIS MORNING AS
SFC LOW OVER SRN OH MOVES TO THE EAST. PATCHY RADIATIONAL COOLING
BR EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BEST CHC OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS
AT FWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A BIT HIGHER. SFC
HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD MIX
DOWN TO THE SFC BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT. RIDGING/WARMING
ALOFT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO CLOUD
COVER. SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM INDIANA TO OHIO TONIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR WITH GRADIENT WK ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG/BR PSBL
OVERNIGHT BUT NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 040749
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
349 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 80 WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY... WITH SHOWERS LIKELY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN OH WERE MOVG
EAST THIS MORNING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE W-NW
IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH CROSS-OVER TEMPS IN THE U50S
BEING EXCEEDED FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM SO HAVE ADDED TO FCST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.

RIDGE ALOFT OVER MN/IA EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY
AND MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX TODAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE CONTS TO MOVE
IN. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY YDAY BUT WAS THICKER TO THE NW JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS... AND THIS THICKER SMOKE LAYER COULD MOVE
OVER OUR AREA TODAY LIMITING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND WARMING ALOFT FOR HIGHS AROUND 80.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL CONT TONIGHT AS UPR RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH BLO NORMAL LOWS IN
THE U50S/L60S. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN BUT
QUESTIONABLE AFTER A DAY OF NEARLY FULL SUN IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DECENT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID-LATE WEEK THE
HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD...

RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ENSURE A MAINLY
DRY/WARM SUNDAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE INTERFACE IN NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH LACKING
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUGGEST HOLDING WITH A DRY FCST THE
WAY TO GO ATTM. MONDAY VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS.

A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOLD OVER OF
MODEST/NARROW THETA-E RIDGE (PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG
BOUNDARY PER LATEST GUIDANCE) SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. THIS IN TANDEM WITH POOR DIURNAL
TIMING AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 1246 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NRN INDIANA THIS MORNING AS
SFC LOW OVER SRN OH MOVES TO THE EAST. PATCHY RADIATIONAL COOLING
BR EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BEST CHC OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS
AT FWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A BIT HIGHER. SFC
HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD MIX
DOWN TO THE SFC BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT. RIDGING/WARMING
ALOFT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO CLOUD
COVER. SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM INDIANA TO OHIO TONIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR WITH GRADIENT WK ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG/BR PSBL
OVERNIGHT BUT NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 040454
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1254 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 50S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 80S... EXCEPT ONLY IN
THE MID 70S CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BELOW. AS
A RESULT...HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE EAST ACROSS
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BROUGHT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTHERN CWA AND A BKN-OVC DECK OF HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT TO MUCH OF THE AREA. NAM AND HOST OF OTHER
MODELS ARE OVERDOING POPS/QPF THUS FAR...SO HAVE STUCK TO USING THE
HRRR AS IT HAS DONE WELL WITH THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF SHOWERS
TODAY. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IT SEEMS PCP HAS FAILED TO
MAKE IT FAR NORTHWARD THUS FAR...AND EXPECT IT TO STAY THAT WAY THIS
EVENING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...SKIES CLEARING...AND
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED WAS HESITANT TO ADD
ANYTHING INTO FCST. IF ANYTHING...THINKING IT WILL BE MORE OF A BR
SITUATION WITH VIS 3-5 MILES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHERE THERE IS A
BIT MORE MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

DISJOINTED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX SHOULD WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHILE FORCING WITH SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND WITH LOCAL AREA LIKELY SPLIT BY FORCING ONCE AGAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY. SOME VERY LOW PROBABILITY MAY
EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA...BUT NOT OF LARGE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INSERT MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME.

CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MAY TRY TO GET
INGESTED BACK INTO NORTHERN STREAM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS LIKELY POPS FOR
THIS PERIOD. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE
GIVEN EXPECTED UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND LOCAL AREA REMAINING ON EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
STRONGER FORCING WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST HALF.
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS A WEAK MID
LEVEL TROUGH MAY INDUCE WEAK DOWNSTREAM LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH BOUNDARY IN VICINITY. MAINTAINED IDEA OF
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MAKES A MORE AGGRESSIVE
NORTHWARD SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NRN INDIANA THIS MORNING AS
SFC LOW OVER SRN OH MOVES TO THE EAST. PATCHY RADIATIONAL COOLING
BR EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BEST CHC OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS
AT FWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A BIT HIGHER. SFC
HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD MIX
DOWN TO THE SFC BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT. RIDGING/WARMING
ALOFT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO CLOUD
COVER. SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM INDIANA TO OHIO TONIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR WITH GRADIENT WK ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG/BR PSBL
OVERNIGHT BUT NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 032339
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
739 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. OTHERWISE..CLEARING SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION. THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL REACH AROUND 80...EXCEPT IN THE MID 70S CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BELOW. AS
A RESULT...HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE EAST ACROSS
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BROUGHT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTHERN CWA AND A BKN-OVC DECK OF HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT TO MUCH OF THE AREA. NAM AND HOST OF OTHER
MODELS ARE OVERDOING POPS/QPF THUS FAR...SO HAVE STUCK TO USING THE
HRRR AS IT HAS DONE WELL WITH THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF SHOWERS
TODAY. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IT SEEMS PCP HAS FAILED TO
MAKE IT FAR NORTHWARD THUS FAR...AND EXPECT IT TO STAY THAT WAY THIS
EVENING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...SKIES CLEARING...AND
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED WAS HESITANT TO ADD
ANYTHING INTO FCST. IF ANYTHING...THINKING IT WILL BE MORE OF A BR
SITUATION WITH VIS 3-5 MILES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHERE THERE IS A
BIT MORE MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

DISJOINTED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX SHOULD WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHILE FORCING WITH SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND WITH LOCAL AREA LIKELY SPLIT BY FORCING ONCE AGAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY. SOME VERY LOW PROBABILITY MAY
EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA...BUT NOT OF LARGE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INSERT MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME.

CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MAY TRY TO GET
INGESTED BACK INTO NORTHERN STREAM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS LIKELY POPS FOR
THIS PERIOD. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE
GIVEN EXPECTED UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND LOCAL AREA REMAINING ON EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
STRONGER FORCING WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST HALF.
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS A WEAK MID
LEVEL TROUGH MAY INDUCE WEAK DOWNSTREAM LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH BOUNDARY IN VICINITY. MAINTAINED IDEA OF
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MAKES A MORE AGGRESSIVE
NORTHWARD SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF BR OVERNIGHT AT
KFWA SO LEFT THAT IN THIS ISSUANCE WITH A TEMPO GROUP. VIS
SATELLITE DOES SHOW LARGE AMOUNT OF SMOKE/HAZE FROM CANADIAN WILD
FIRES APPROACHING OUR AREA. WHILE LITTLE IMPACT TO AVIATION
OPERATIONS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE A HAZE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW KEEPING SFC VIS VFR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 032339
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
739 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. OTHERWISE..CLEARING SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION. THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL REACH AROUND 80...EXCEPT IN THE MID 70S CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BELOW. AS
A RESULT...HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE EAST ACROSS
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BROUGHT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTHERN CWA AND A BKN-OVC DECK OF HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT TO MUCH OF THE AREA. NAM AND HOST OF OTHER
MODELS ARE OVERDOING POPS/QPF THUS FAR...SO HAVE STUCK TO USING THE
HRRR AS IT HAS DONE WELL WITH THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF SHOWERS
TODAY. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IT SEEMS PCP HAS FAILED TO
MAKE IT FAR NORTHWARD THUS FAR...AND EXPECT IT TO STAY THAT WAY THIS
EVENING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...SKIES CLEARING...AND
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED WAS HESITANT TO ADD
ANYTHING INTO FCST. IF ANYTHING...THINKING IT WILL BE MORE OF A BR
SITUATION WITH VIS 3-5 MILES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHERE THERE IS A
BIT MORE MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

DISJOINTED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX SHOULD WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHILE FORCING WITH SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND WITH LOCAL AREA LIKELY SPLIT BY FORCING ONCE AGAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY. SOME VERY LOW PROBABILITY MAY
EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA...BUT NOT OF LARGE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INSERT MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME.

CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MAY TRY TO GET
INGESTED BACK INTO NORTHERN STREAM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS LIKELY POPS FOR
THIS PERIOD. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE
GIVEN EXPECTED UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND LOCAL AREA REMAINING ON EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
STRONGER FORCING WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST HALF.
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS A WEAK MID
LEVEL TROUGH MAY INDUCE WEAK DOWNSTREAM LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH BOUNDARY IN VICINITY. MAINTAINED IDEA OF
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MAKES A MORE AGGRESSIVE
NORTHWARD SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF BR OVERNIGHT AT
KFWA SO LEFT THAT IN THIS ISSUANCE WITH A TEMPO GROUP. VIS
SATELLITE DOES SHOW LARGE AMOUNT OF SMOKE/HAZE FROM CANADIAN WILD
FIRES APPROACHING OUR AREA. WHILE LITTLE IMPACT TO AVIATION
OPERATIONS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE A HAZE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW KEEPING SFC VIS VFR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 031944
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
344 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. OTHERWISE..CLEARING SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION. THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL REACH AROUND 80...EXCEPT IN THE MID 70S CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BELOW. AS
A RESULT...HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE EAST ACROSS
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BROUGHT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTHERN CWA AND A BKN-OVC DECK OF HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT TO MUCH OF THE AREA. NAM AND HOST OF OTHER
MODELS ARE OVERDOING POPS/QPF THUS FAR...SO HAVE STUCK TO USING THE
HRRR AS IT HAS DONE WELL WITH THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF SHOWERS
TODAY. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IT SEEMS PCP HAS FAILED TO
MAKE IT FAR NORTHWARD THUS FAR...AND EXPECT IT TO STAY THAT WAY THIS
EVENING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...SKIES CLEARING...AND
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED WAS HESITANT TO ADD
ANYTHING INTO FCST. IF ANYTHING...THINKING IT WILL BE MORE OF A BR
SITUATION WITH VIS 3-5 MILES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHERE THERE IS A
BIT MORE MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

DISJOINTED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX SHOULD WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHILE FORCING WITH SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND WITH LOCAL AREA LIKELY SPLIT BY FORCING ONCE AGAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY. SOME VERY LOW PROBABILITY MAY
EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA...BUT NOT OF LARGE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INSERT MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME.

CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MAY TRY TO GET
INGESTED BACK INTO NORTHERN STREAM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS LIKELY POPS FOR
THIS PERIOD. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE
GIVEN EXPECTED UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND LOCAL AREA REMAINING ON EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
STRONGER FORCING WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST HALF.
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS A WEAK MID
LEVEL TROUGH MAY INDUCE WEAK DOWNSTREAM LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH BOUNDARY IN VICINITY. MAINTAINED IDEA OF
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MAKES A MORE AGGRESSIVE
NORTHWARD SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY IS CAUSING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON SEEING
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3-4KFT AND A BROKEN-OVERCAST DECK AROUND
15KFT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST...EXPECT A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY LATE EVENING...AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING KFWA HAS THE BEST CHANCE BUT DO NOT SEE
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 3-4 MILES GIVEN INCOMING DRIER AIR.
FOR NOW KEPT 4SM BR IN FOR KFWA STARTING AT 9Z. QUIET WEATHER/VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MCD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 031752
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
150 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING
MOST OF THE AREA DRY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
KENTUCKY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTN/EVE. AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATTM...
HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE NOT TOO FAR REMOVED AS EVIDENCED BY SCT
SHOWERS DVLPG OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING IN AREA OF WK
LOW LEVEL ISENT LIFT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE RECENTLY ALL TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH WITH TRACK OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED
COOL POOL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME WK INSTABILITY TO DVLP ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY AND WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM LATEST HIGH-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS... HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
TO SRN TIER OF COUNTIES...MAINLY THIS AFTN. SLOW WARMING TREND
SHOULD CONT ACROSS NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY AS RATHER STAGNANT
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH OVER MI CONTS TO MODIFY... HWVR
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT WARMUP ACROSS SRN AREAS...
EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M70S ACROSS THE AREA.

AS SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...SFC HIGH OVER MI
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY S-SE INTO OUR CWA PROVIDING CLEARING SKIES AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE M50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A QUIET/WARMER HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HELPS MAINTAIN
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A WESTERN
CANADA UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN/BUILDING INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE SUPPORT HIGHER 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POPS DURING THIS TIME.
LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN WAKE OF
UPPER TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORCED SOUTH INTO THE
OH VALLEY MAY SUPPORT A DRY/COOLER WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK AS FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT BACK
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CONVECTIVELY AIDED SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY IS CAUSING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON SEEING
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3-4KFT AND A BROKEN-OVERCAST DECK AROUND
15KFT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST...EXPECT A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY LATE EVENING...AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING KFWA HAS THE BEST CHANCE BUT DO NOT SEE
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 3-4 MILES GIVEN INCOMING DRIER AIR.
FOR NOW KEPT 4SM BR IN FOR KFWA STARTING AT 9Z. QUIET WEATHER/VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MCD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 031752
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
150 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING
MOST OF THE AREA DRY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
KENTUCKY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTN/EVE. AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATTM...
HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE NOT TOO FAR REMOVED AS EVIDENCED BY SCT
SHOWERS DVLPG OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING IN AREA OF WK
LOW LEVEL ISENT LIFT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE RECENTLY ALL TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH WITH TRACK OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED
COOL POOL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME WK INSTABILITY TO DVLP ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY AND WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM LATEST HIGH-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS... HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
TO SRN TIER OF COUNTIES...MAINLY THIS AFTN. SLOW WARMING TREND
SHOULD CONT ACROSS NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY AS RATHER STAGNANT
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH OVER MI CONTS TO MODIFY... HWVR
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT WARMUP ACROSS SRN AREAS...
EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M70S ACROSS THE AREA.

AS SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...SFC HIGH OVER MI
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY S-SE INTO OUR CWA PROVIDING CLEARING SKIES AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE M50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A QUIET/WARMER HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HELPS MAINTAIN
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A WESTERN
CANADA UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN/BUILDING INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE SUPPORT HIGHER 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POPS DURING THIS TIME.
LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN WAKE OF
UPPER TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORCED SOUTH INTO THE
OH VALLEY MAY SUPPORT A DRY/COOLER WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK AS FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT BACK
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CONVECTIVELY AIDED SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY IS CAUSING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON SEEING
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3-4KFT AND A BROKEN-OVERCAST DECK AROUND
15KFT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST...EXPECT A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY LATE EVENING...AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING KFWA HAS THE BEST CHANCE BUT DO NOT SEE
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 3-4 MILES GIVEN INCOMING DRIER AIR.
FOR NOW KEPT 4SM BR IN FOR KFWA STARTING AT 9Z. QUIET WEATHER/VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MCD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 031752
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
150 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING
MOST OF THE AREA DRY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
KENTUCKY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTN/EVE. AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATTM...
HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE NOT TOO FAR REMOVED AS EVIDENCED BY SCT
SHOWERS DVLPG OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING IN AREA OF WK
LOW LEVEL ISENT LIFT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE RECENTLY ALL TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH WITH TRACK OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED
COOL POOL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME WK INSTABILITY TO DVLP ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY AND WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM LATEST HIGH-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS... HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
TO SRN TIER OF COUNTIES...MAINLY THIS AFTN. SLOW WARMING TREND
SHOULD CONT ACROSS NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY AS RATHER STAGNANT
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH OVER MI CONTS TO MODIFY... HWVR
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT WARMUP ACROSS SRN AREAS...
EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M70S ACROSS THE AREA.

AS SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...SFC HIGH OVER MI
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY S-SE INTO OUR CWA PROVIDING CLEARING SKIES AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE M50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A QUIET/WARMER HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HELPS MAINTAIN
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A WESTERN
CANADA UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN/BUILDING INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE SUPPORT HIGHER 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POPS DURING THIS TIME.
LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN WAKE OF
UPPER TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORCED SOUTH INTO THE
OH VALLEY MAY SUPPORT A DRY/COOLER WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK AS FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT BACK
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CONVECTIVELY AIDED SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY IS CAUSING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON SEEING
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3-4KFT AND A BROKEN-OVERCAST DECK AROUND
15KFT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST...EXPECT A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY LATE EVENING...AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING KFWA HAS THE BEST CHANCE BUT DO NOT SEE
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 3-4 MILES GIVEN INCOMING DRIER AIR.
FOR NOW KEPT 4SM BR IN FOR KFWA STARTING AT 9Z. QUIET WEATHER/VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MCD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 031752
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
150 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING
MOST OF THE AREA DRY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
KENTUCKY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTN/EVE. AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATTM...
HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE NOT TOO FAR REMOVED AS EVIDENCED BY SCT
SHOWERS DVLPG OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING IN AREA OF WK
LOW LEVEL ISENT LIFT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE RECENTLY ALL TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH WITH TRACK OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED
COOL POOL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME WK INSTABILITY TO DVLP ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY AND WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM LATEST HIGH-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS... HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
TO SRN TIER OF COUNTIES...MAINLY THIS AFTN. SLOW WARMING TREND
SHOULD CONT ACROSS NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY AS RATHER STAGNANT
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH OVER MI CONTS TO MODIFY... HWVR
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT WARMUP ACROSS SRN AREAS...
EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M70S ACROSS THE AREA.

AS SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...SFC HIGH OVER MI
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY S-SE INTO OUR CWA PROVIDING CLEARING SKIES AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE M50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A QUIET/WARMER HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HELPS MAINTAIN
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A WESTERN
CANADA UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN/BUILDING INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE SUPPORT HIGHER 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POPS DURING THIS TIME.
LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN WAKE OF
UPPER TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORCED SOUTH INTO THE
OH VALLEY MAY SUPPORT A DRY/COOLER WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK AS FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT BACK
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CONVECTIVELY AIDED SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY IS CAUSING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON SEEING
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3-4KFT AND A BROKEN-OVERCAST DECK AROUND
15KFT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST...EXPECT A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY LATE EVENING...AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING KFWA HAS THE BEST CHANCE BUT DO NOT SEE
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 3-4 MILES GIVEN INCOMING DRIER AIR.
FOR NOW KEPT 4SM BR IN FOR KFWA STARTING AT 9Z. QUIET WEATHER/VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MCD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 031750
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
150 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING
MOST OF THE AREA DRY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
KENTUCKY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTN/EVE. AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATTM...
HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE NOT TOO FAR REMOVED AS EVIDENCED BY SCT
SHOWERS DVLPG OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING IN AREA OF WK
LOW LEVEL ISENT LIFT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE RECENTLY ALL TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH WITH TRACK OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED
COOL POOL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME WK INSTABILITY TO DVLP ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY AND WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM LATEST HIGH-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS... HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
TO SRN TIER OF COUNTIES...MAINLY THIS AFTN. SLOW WARMING TREND
SHOULD CONT ACROSS NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY AS RATHER STAGNANT
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH OVER MI CONTS TO MODIFY... HWVR
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT WARMUP ACROSS SRN AREAS...
EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M70S ACROSS THE AREA.

AS SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...SFC HIGH OVER MI
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY S-SE INTO OUR CWA PROVIDING CLEARING SKIES AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE M50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A QUIET/WARMER HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HELPS MAINTAIN
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A WESTERN
CANADA UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN/BUILDING INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE SUPPORT HIGHER 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POPS DURING THIS TIME.
LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN WAKE OF
UPPER TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORCED SOUTH INTO THE
OH VALLEY MAY SUPPORT A DRY/COOLER WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK AS FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT BACK
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CONVECTIVELY AIDED SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY IS CAUSING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON SEEING
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3-4KFT AND A BROKEN-OVERCAST DECK AROUND
15KFT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST...EXPECT A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY LATE EVENING...AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING KFWA HAS THE BEST CHANCE BUT DO NOT SEE
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 3-4 MILES GIVEN INCOMING DRIER AIR.
FOR NOW KEPT 4SM BR IN FOR KFWA STARTING AT 9Z. QUIET WEATHER/VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MCD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 031750
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
150 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING
MOST OF THE AREA DRY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
KENTUCKY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTN/EVE. AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATTM...
HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE NOT TOO FAR REMOVED AS EVIDENCED BY SCT
SHOWERS DVLPG OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING IN AREA OF WK
LOW LEVEL ISENT LIFT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE RECENTLY ALL TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH WITH TRACK OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED
COOL POOL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME WK INSTABILITY TO DVLP ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY AND WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM LATEST HIGH-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS... HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
TO SRN TIER OF COUNTIES...MAINLY THIS AFTN. SLOW WARMING TREND
SHOULD CONT ACROSS NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY AS RATHER STAGNANT
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH OVER MI CONTS TO MODIFY... HWVR
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT WARMUP ACROSS SRN AREAS...
EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M70S ACROSS THE AREA.

AS SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...SFC HIGH OVER MI
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY S-SE INTO OUR CWA PROVIDING CLEARING SKIES AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE M50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A QUIET/WARMER HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HELPS MAINTAIN
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A WESTERN
CANADA UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN/BUILDING INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE SUPPORT HIGHER 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POPS DURING THIS TIME.
LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN WAKE OF
UPPER TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORCED SOUTH INTO THE
OH VALLEY MAY SUPPORT A DRY/COOLER WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK AS FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT BACK
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CONVECTIVELY AIDED SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY IS CAUSING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON SEEING
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3-4KFT AND A BROKEN-OVERCAST DECK AROUND
15KFT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST...EXPECT A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY LATE EVENING...AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING KFWA HAS THE BEST CHANCE BUT DO NOT SEE
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 3-4 MILES GIVEN INCOMING DRIER AIR.
FOR NOW KEPT 4SM BR IN FOR KFWA STARTING AT 9Z. QUIET WEATHER/VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MCD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 031556
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1156 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
REGION WILL BE DRY TODAY. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO A FRONT IN KENTUCKY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING THROUGHOUT TONIGHT RESULTING IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE SOUTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTN/EVE. AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATTM...
HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE NOT TOO FAR REMOVED AS EVIDENCED BY SCT
SHOWERS DVLPG OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING IN AREA OF WK
LOW LEVEL ISENT LIFT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE RECENTLY ALL TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH WITH TRACK OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED
COOL POOL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME WK INSTABILITY TO DVLP ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY AND WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM LATEST HIGH-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS... HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
TO SRN TIER OF COUNTIES...MAINLY THIS AFTN. SLOW WARMING TREND
SHOULD CONT ACROSS NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY AS RATHER STAGNANT
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH OVER MI CONTS TO MODIFY... HWVR
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT WARMUP ACROSS SRN AREAS...
EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M70S ACROSS THE AREA.

AS SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...SFC HIGH OVER MI
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY S-SE INTO OUR CWA PROVIDING CLEARING SKIES AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE M50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A QUIET/WARMER HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HELPS MAINTAIN
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A WESTERN
CANADA UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN/BUILDING INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE SUPPORT HIGHER 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POPS DURING THIS TIME.
LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN WAKE OF
UPPER TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORCED SOUTH INTO THE
OH VALLEY MAY SUPPORT A DRY/COOLER WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK AS FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT BACK
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CONVECTIVELY AIDED SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

RECENT AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND SFC OBS FROM FWA SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS SUFFICIENTLY MIXED ATTM TO REMOVE THREAT OF LLWS FROM
TAF. DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER MI
SHOULD KEEP SCT SHRA SOUTH OF TERMINALS THIS TAF PERIOD AS IA
SHRTWV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SFC HIGH EXPECTED TO MOVE S-SE
TONIGHT PROVIDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG TOWARD DAWN BUT GFS CONSIDERABLY
DRIER IN LOW LEVELS SO FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF TAFS WITH VFR FCST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 031556
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1156 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
REGION WILL BE DRY TODAY. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO A FRONT IN KENTUCKY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING THROUGHOUT TONIGHT RESULTING IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE SOUTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTN/EVE. AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATTM...
HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE NOT TOO FAR REMOVED AS EVIDENCED BY SCT
SHOWERS DVLPG OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING IN AREA OF WK
LOW LEVEL ISENT LIFT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE RECENTLY ALL TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH WITH TRACK OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED
COOL POOL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME WK INSTABILITY TO DVLP ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY AND WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM LATEST HIGH-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS... HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
TO SRN TIER OF COUNTIES...MAINLY THIS AFTN. SLOW WARMING TREND
SHOULD CONT ACROSS NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY AS RATHER STAGNANT
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH OVER MI CONTS TO MODIFY... HWVR
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT WARMUP ACROSS SRN AREAS...
EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M70S ACROSS THE AREA.

AS SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...SFC HIGH OVER MI
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY S-SE INTO OUR CWA PROVIDING CLEARING SKIES AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE M50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A QUIET/WARMER HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HELPS MAINTAIN
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A WESTERN
CANADA UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN/BUILDING INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE SUPPORT HIGHER 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POPS DURING THIS TIME.
LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN WAKE OF
UPPER TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORCED SOUTH INTO THE
OH VALLEY MAY SUPPORT A DRY/COOLER WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK AS FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT BACK
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CONVECTIVELY AIDED SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

RECENT AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND SFC OBS FROM FWA SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS SUFFICIENTLY MIXED ATTM TO REMOVE THREAT OF LLWS FROM
TAF. DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER MI
SHOULD KEEP SCT SHRA SOUTH OF TERMINALS THIS TAF PERIOD AS IA
SHRTWV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SFC HIGH EXPECTED TO MOVE S-SE
TONIGHT PROVIDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG TOWARD DAWN BUT GFS CONSIDERABLY
DRIER IN LOW LEVELS SO FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF TAFS WITH VFR FCST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 031556
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1156 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
REGION WILL BE DRY TODAY. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO A FRONT IN KENTUCKY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING THROUGHOUT TONIGHT RESULTING IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE SOUTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTN/EVE. AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATTM...
HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE NOT TOO FAR REMOVED AS EVIDENCED BY SCT
SHOWERS DVLPG OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING IN AREA OF WK
LOW LEVEL ISENT LIFT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE RECENTLY ALL TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH WITH TRACK OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED
COOL POOL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME WK INSTABILITY TO DVLP ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY AND WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM LATEST HIGH-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS... HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
TO SRN TIER OF COUNTIES...MAINLY THIS AFTN. SLOW WARMING TREND
SHOULD CONT ACROSS NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY AS RATHER STAGNANT
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH OVER MI CONTS TO MODIFY... HWVR
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT WARMUP ACROSS SRN AREAS...
EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M70S ACROSS THE AREA.

AS SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...SFC HIGH OVER MI
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY S-SE INTO OUR CWA PROVIDING CLEARING SKIES AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE M50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A QUIET/WARMER HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HELPS MAINTAIN
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A WESTERN
CANADA UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN/BUILDING INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE SUPPORT HIGHER 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POPS DURING THIS TIME.
LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN WAKE OF
UPPER TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORCED SOUTH INTO THE
OH VALLEY MAY SUPPORT A DRY/COOLER WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK AS FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT BACK
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CONVECTIVELY AIDED SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

RECENT AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND SFC OBS FROM FWA SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS SUFFICIENTLY MIXED ATTM TO REMOVE THREAT OF LLWS FROM
TAF. DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER MI
SHOULD KEEP SCT SHRA SOUTH OF TERMINALS THIS TAF PERIOD AS IA
SHRTWV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SFC HIGH EXPECTED TO MOVE S-SE
TONIGHT PROVIDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG TOWARD DAWN BUT GFS CONSIDERABLY
DRIER IN LOW LEVELS SO FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF TAFS WITH VFR FCST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 031105
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
705 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
AND OHIO TODAY... OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 70S. THE OHIO VALLEY LOW WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH
THE LOWER MICHIGAN HIGH SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...
RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES... LIGHT WINDS... AND COOL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTN/EVE. AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATTM...
HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE NOT TOO FAR REMOVED AS EVIDENCED BY SCT
SHOWERS DVLPG OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING IN AREA OF WK
LOW LEVEL ISENT LIFT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE RECENTLY ALL TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH WITH TRACK OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED
COOL POOL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME WK INSTABILITY TO DVLP ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY AND WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM LATEST HIGH-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS... HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
TO SRN TIER OF COUNTIES...MAINLY THIS AFTN. SLOW WARMING TREND
SHOULD CONT ACROSS NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY AS RATHER STAGNANT
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH OVER MI CONTS TO MODIFY... HWVR
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT WARMUP ACROSS SRN AREAS...
EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M70S ACROSS THE AREA.

AS SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...SFC HIGH OVER MI
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY S-SE INTO OUR CWA PROVIDING CLEARING SKIES AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE M50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A QUIET/WARMER HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HELPS MAINTAIN
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A WESTERN
CANADA UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN/BUILDING INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE SUPPORT HIGHER 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POPS DURING THIS TIME.
LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN WAKE OF
UPPER TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORCED SOUTH INTO THE
OH VALLEY MAY SUPPORT A DRY/COOLER WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK AS FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT BACK
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CONVECTIVELY AIDED SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

RECENT AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND SFC OBS FROM FWA SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS SUFFICIENTLY MIXED ATTM TO REMOVE THREAT OF LLWS FROM
TAF. DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER MI
SHOULD KEEP SCT SHRA SOUTH OF TERMINALS THIS TAF PERIOD AS IA
SHRTWV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SFC HIGH EXPECTED TO MOVE S-SE
TONIGHT PROVIDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG TOWARD DAWN BUT GFS CONSIDERABLY
DRIER IN LOW LEVELS SO FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF TAFS WITH VFR FCST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 031105
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
705 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
AND OHIO TODAY... OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 70S. THE OHIO VALLEY LOW WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH
THE LOWER MICHIGAN HIGH SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...
RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES... LIGHT WINDS... AND COOL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTN/EVE. AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATTM...
HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE NOT TOO FAR REMOVED AS EVIDENCED BY SCT
SHOWERS DVLPG OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING IN AREA OF WK
LOW LEVEL ISENT LIFT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE RECENTLY ALL TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH WITH TRACK OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED
COOL POOL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME WK INSTABILITY TO DVLP ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY AND WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM LATEST HIGH-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS... HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
TO SRN TIER OF COUNTIES...MAINLY THIS AFTN. SLOW WARMING TREND
SHOULD CONT ACROSS NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY AS RATHER STAGNANT
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH OVER MI CONTS TO MODIFY... HWVR
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT WARMUP ACROSS SRN AREAS...
EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M70S ACROSS THE AREA.

AS SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...SFC HIGH OVER MI
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY S-SE INTO OUR CWA PROVIDING CLEARING SKIES AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE M50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A QUIET/WARMER HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HELPS MAINTAIN
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A WESTERN
CANADA UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN/BUILDING INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE SUPPORT HIGHER 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POPS DURING THIS TIME.
LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN WAKE OF
UPPER TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORCED SOUTH INTO THE
OH VALLEY MAY SUPPORT A DRY/COOLER WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK AS FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT BACK
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CONVECTIVELY AIDED SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

RECENT AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND SFC OBS FROM FWA SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS SUFFICIENTLY MIXED ATTM TO REMOVE THREAT OF LLWS FROM
TAF. DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER MI
SHOULD KEEP SCT SHRA SOUTH OF TERMINALS THIS TAF PERIOD AS IA
SHRTWV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SFC HIGH EXPECTED TO MOVE S-SE
TONIGHT PROVIDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG TOWARD DAWN BUT GFS CONSIDERABLY
DRIER IN LOW LEVELS SO FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF TAFS WITH VFR FCST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 031105
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
705 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
AND OHIO TODAY... OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 70S. THE OHIO VALLEY LOW WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH
THE LOWER MICHIGAN HIGH SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...
RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES... LIGHT WINDS... AND COOL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTN/EVE. AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATTM...
HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE NOT TOO FAR REMOVED AS EVIDENCED BY SCT
SHOWERS DVLPG OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING IN AREA OF WK
LOW LEVEL ISENT LIFT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE RECENTLY ALL TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH WITH TRACK OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED
COOL POOL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME WK INSTABILITY TO DVLP ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY AND WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM LATEST HIGH-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS... HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
TO SRN TIER OF COUNTIES...MAINLY THIS AFTN. SLOW WARMING TREND
SHOULD CONT ACROSS NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY AS RATHER STAGNANT
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH OVER MI CONTS TO MODIFY... HWVR
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT WARMUP ACROSS SRN AREAS...
EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M70S ACROSS THE AREA.

AS SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...SFC HIGH OVER MI
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY S-SE INTO OUR CWA PROVIDING CLEARING SKIES AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE M50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A QUIET/WARMER HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HELPS MAINTAIN
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A WESTERN
CANADA UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN/BUILDING INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE SUPPORT HIGHER 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POPS DURING THIS TIME.
LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN WAKE OF
UPPER TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORCED SOUTH INTO THE
OH VALLEY MAY SUPPORT A DRY/COOLER WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK AS FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT BACK
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CONVECTIVELY AIDED SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

RECENT AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND SFC OBS FROM FWA SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS SUFFICIENTLY MIXED ATTM TO REMOVE THREAT OF LLWS FROM
TAF. DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER MI
SHOULD KEEP SCT SHRA SOUTH OF TERMINALS THIS TAF PERIOD AS IA
SHRTWV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SFC HIGH EXPECTED TO MOVE S-SE
TONIGHT PROVIDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG TOWARD DAWN BUT GFS CONSIDERABLY
DRIER IN LOW LEVELS SO FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF TAFS WITH VFR FCST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 031105
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
705 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
AND OHIO TODAY... OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 70S. THE OHIO VALLEY LOW WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH
THE LOWER MICHIGAN HIGH SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...
RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES... LIGHT WINDS... AND COOL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTN/EVE. AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATTM...
HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE NOT TOO FAR REMOVED AS EVIDENCED BY SCT
SHOWERS DVLPG OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING IN AREA OF WK
LOW LEVEL ISENT LIFT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE RECENTLY ALL TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH WITH TRACK OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED
COOL POOL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME WK INSTABILITY TO DVLP ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY AND WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM LATEST HIGH-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS... HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
TO SRN TIER OF COUNTIES...MAINLY THIS AFTN. SLOW WARMING TREND
SHOULD CONT ACROSS NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY AS RATHER STAGNANT
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH OVER MI CONTS TO MODIFY... HWVR
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT WARMUP ACROSS SRN AREAS...
EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M70S ACROSS THE AREA.

AS SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...SFC HIGH OVER MI
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY S-SE INTO OUR CWA PROVIDING CLEARING SKIES AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE M50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A QUIET/WARMER HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HELPS MAINTAIN
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A WESTERN
CANADA UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN/BUILDING INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE SUPPORT HIGHER 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POPS DURING THIS TIME.
LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN WAKE OF
UPPER TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORCED SOUTH INTO THE
OH VALLEY MAY SUPPORT A DRY/COOLER WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK AS FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT BACK
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CONVECTIVELY AIDED SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

RECENT AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND SFC OBS FROM FWA SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS SUFFICIENTLY MIXED ATTM TO REMOVE THREAT OF LLWS FROM
TAF. DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER MI
SHOULD KEEP SCT SHRA SOUTH OF TERMINALS THIS TAF PERIOD AS IA
SHRTWV MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SFC HIGH EXPECTED TO MOVE S-SE
TONIGHT PROVIDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG TOWARD DAWN BUT GFS CONSIDERABLY
DRIER IN LOW LEVELS SO FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF TAFS WITH VFR FCST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 030737
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
337 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
AND OHIO TODAY... OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 70S. THE OHIO VALLEY LOW WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH
THE LOWER MICHIGAN HIGH SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OUR AREA...
RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES... LIGHT WINDS... AND COOL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTN/EVE. AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATTM...
HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE NOT TOO FAR REMOVED AS EVIDENCED BY SCT
SHOWERS DVLPG OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING IN AREA OF WK
LOW LEVEL ISENT LIFT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE RECENTLY ALL TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH WITH TRACK OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED
COOL POOL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME WK INSTABILITY TO DVLP ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
DURING THE DAY AND WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM LATEST HIGH-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS... HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
TO SRN TIER OF COUNTIES...MAINLY THIS AFTN. SLOW WARMING TREND
SHOULD CONT ACROSS NRN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY AS RATHER STAGNANT
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH OVER MI CONTS TO MODIFY... HWVR
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT WARMUP ACROSS SRN AREAS...
EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M70S ACROSS THE AREA.

AS SHRTWV MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...SFC HIGH OVER MI
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY S-SE INTO OUR CWA PROVIDING CLEARING SKIES AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE M50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A QUIET/WARMER HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES HELPS MAINTAIN
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A WESTERN
CANADA UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN/BUILDING INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE SUPPORT HIGHER 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POPS DURING THIS TIME.
LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY IN WAKE OF
UPPER TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORCED SOUTH INTO THE
OH VALLEY MAY SUPPORT A DRY/COOLER WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK AS FRONT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT BACK
NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CONVECTIVELY AIDED SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 105 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHRTWV OVER IA WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS INDIANA DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD CONFINE ANY SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO AREAS SOUTH
OF THE TERMINALS THOUGH SOME LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT FWA.
STILL SOME CONCERN FOR LLWS BLO 1KFT AT FWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING RESULTING IN LIGHT SFC WINDS WITH FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC. NO MENTION OF LLWS AT SBN
WITH LIGHTER FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 030516
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
116 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DIP TO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LAKE ERIE MARINE LAYER THAT MOVED IN ON NE FLOW ALONG WITH
DIURNAL CU FIELD HAS A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...BUT ALL IN ALL A VERY PLEASANT SHORT TERM AS THE
FORECAST AREA FINDS ITSELF NICELY POSITIONED BETWEEN A SPLIT IN
THE MID-UPPER FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SANDWICHED IN
BETWEEN OVER OUR AREA. NORTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ONTARIO
WHILE SOUTHERN WAVE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO TN/OH VALLEY AND
RE- INVIGORATE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS MAY PUSH SOME MID-
HIGH CLOUDS UP INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY BUT OTHERWISE COOL
DRY NE/E FLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH TEMPS
5-10F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOCAL AREA SHOULD BE POSITIONED BETWEEN SOUTHERN
AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD KEEP DRY AIR MASS ANCHORED IN PLACE...WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
NORTH. MID LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED NATURE OF PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINTENANCE
OF WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING THROUGH SUNDAY. A DRY AIR MASS
WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND VIA EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE EVOLUTION OF UPPER
FORCING AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MONDAY-TUESDAY. FAIRLY ROBUST
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PRECEDING THIS TROUGH...AND DAMPENING NATURE
OF THE UPPER WAVE AS IT REACHES SOUTHERN ONTARIO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SLOWING MODEL TREND OF PAST SEVERAL CYCLES. MORE VEERED LOW LEVEL
FLOW BY LATER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY PRECEDING THE FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BEST MOISTURE PROFILES OF THE PERIOD AND NOTICEABLY
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS
CENTERED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SLOWING NATURE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH FLOW DEAMPLIFICATION WILL KEEP AT LEAST A THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY GET A REINFORCING PUSH SOUTHWARD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS POINT TO ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM VORT MAX PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHRTWV OVER IA WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS INDIANA DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD CONFINE ANY SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO AREAS SOUTH
OF THE TERMINALS THOUGH SOME LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT FWA.
STILL SOME CONCERN FOR LLWS BLO 1KFT AT FWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING RESULTING IN LIGHT SFC WINDS WITH FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC. NO MENTION OF LLWS AT SBN
WITH LIGHTER FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 030516
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
116 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DIP TO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LAKE ERIE MARINE LAYER THAT MOVED IN ON NE FLOW ALONG WITH
DIURNAL CU FIELD HAS A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...BUT ALL IN ALL A VERY PLEASANT SHORT TERM AS THE
FORECAST AREA FINDS ITSELF NICELY POSITIONED BETWEEN A SPLIT IN
THE MID-UPPER FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SANDWICHED IN
BETWEEN OVER OUR AREA. NORTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ONTARIO
WHILE SOUTHERN WAVE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO TN/OH VALLEY AND
RE- INVIGORATE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS MAY PUSH SOME MID-
HIGH CLOUDS UP INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY BUT OTHERWISE COOL
DRY NE/E FLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH TEMPS
5-10F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOCAL AREA SHOULD BE POSITIONED BETWEEN SOUTHERN
AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD KEEP DRY AIR MASS ANCHORED IN PLACE...WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
NORTH. MID LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED NATURE OF PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINTENANCE
OF WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING THROUGH SUNDAY. A DRY AIR MASS
WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND VIA EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE EVOLUTION OF UPPER
FORCING AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MONDAY-TUESDAY. FAIRLY ROBUST
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PRECEDING THIS TROUGH...AND DAMPENING NATURE
OF THE UPPER WAVE AS IT REACHES SOUTHERN ONTARIO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SLOWING MODEL TREND OF PAST SEVERAL CYCLES. MORE VEERED LOW LEVEL
FLOW BY LATER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY PRECEDING THE FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BEST MOISTURE PROFILES OF THE PERIOD AND NOTICEABLY
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS
CENTERED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SLOWING NATURE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH FLOW DEAMPLIFICATION WILL KEEP AT LEAST A THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY GET A REINFORCING PUSH SOUTHWARD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS POINT TO ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM VORT MAX PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHRTWV OVER IA WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS INDIANA DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD CONFINE ANY SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO AREAS SOUTH
OF THE TERMINALS THOUGH SOME LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT FWA.
STILL SOME CONCERN FOR LLWS BLO 1KFT AT FWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING RESULTING IN LIGHT SFC WINDS WITH FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC. NO MENTION OF LLWS AT SBN
WITH LIGHTER FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 030516
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
116 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DIP TO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LAKE ERIE MARINE LAYER THAT MOVED IN ON NE FLOW ALONG WITH
DIURNAL CU FIELD HAS A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...BUT ALL IN ALL A VERY PLEASANT SHORT TERM AS THE
FORECAST AREA FINDS ITSELF NICELY POSITIONED BETWEEN A SPLIT IN
THE MID-UPPER FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SANDWICHED IN
BETWEEN OVER OUR AREA. NORTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ONTARIO
WHILE SOUTHERN WAVE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO TN/OH VALLEY AND
RE- INVIGORATE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS MAY PUSH SOME MID-
HIGH CLOUDS UP INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY BUT OTHERWISE COOL
DRY NE/E FLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH TEMPS
5-10F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOCAL AREA SHOULD BE POSITIONED BETWEEN SOUTHERN
AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD KEEP DRY AIR MASS ANCHORED IN PLACE...WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
NORTH. MID LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED NATURE OF PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINTENANCE
OF WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING THROUGH SUNDAY. A DRY AIR MASS
WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND VIA EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE EVOLUTION OF UPPER
FORCING AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MONDAY-TUESDAY. FAIRLY ROBUST
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PRECEDING THIS TROUGH...AND DAMPENING NATURE
OF THE UPPER WAVE AS IT REACHES SOUTHERN ONTARIO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SLOWING MODEL TREND OF PAST SEVERAL CYCLES. MORE VEERED LOW LEVEL
FLOW BY LATER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY PRECEDING THE FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BEST MOISTURE PROFILES OF THE PERIOD AND NOTICEABLY
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS
CENTERED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SLOWING NATURE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH FLOW DEAMPLIFICATION WILL KEEP AT LEAST A THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY GET A REINFORCING PUSH SOUTHWARD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS POINT TO ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM VORT MAX PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHRTWV OVER IA WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS INDIANA DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD CONFINE ANY SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO AREAS SOUTH
OF THE TERMINALS THOUGH SOME LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT FWA.
STILL SOME CONCERN FOR LLWS BLO 1KFT AT FWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING RESULTING IN LIGHT SFC WINDS WITH FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC. NO MENTION OF LLWS AT SBN
WITH LIGHTER FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 030516
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
116 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DIP TO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LAKE ERIE MARINE LAYER THAT MOVED IN ON NE FLOW ALONG WITH
DIURNAL CU FIELD HAS A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...BUT ALL IN ALL A VERY PLEASANT SHORT TERM AS THE
FORECAST AREA FINDS ITSELF NICELY POSITIONED BETWEEN A SPLIT IN
THE MID-UPPER FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SANDWICHED IN
BETWEEN OVER OUR AREA. NORTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ONTARIO
WHILE SOUTHERN WAVE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO TN/OH VALLEY AND
RE- INVIGORATE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS MAY PUSH SOME MID-
HIGH CLOUDS UP INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY BUT OTHERWISE COOL
DRY NE/E FLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH TEMPS
5-10F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOCAL AREA SHOULD BE POSITIONED BETWEEN SOUTHERN
AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD KEEP DRY AIR MASS ANCHORED IN PLACE...WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
NORTH. MID LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED NATURE OF PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINTENANCE
OF WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING THROUGH SUNDAY. A DRY AIR MASS
WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND VIA EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE EVOLUTION OF UPPER
FORCING AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MONDAY-TUESDAY. FAIRLY ROBUST
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PRECEDING THIS TROUGH...AND DAMPENING NATURE
OF THE UPPER WAVE AS IT REACHES SOUTHERN ONTARIO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SLOWING MODEL TREND OF PAST SEVERAL CYCLES. MORE VEERED LOW LEVEL
FLOW BY LATER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY PRECEDING THE FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BEST MOISTURE PROFILES OF THE PERIOD AND NOTICEABLY
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS
CENTERED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SLOWING NATURE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH FLOW DEAMPLIFICATION WILL KEEP AT LEAST A THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY GET A REINFORCING PUSH SOUTHWARD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS POINT TO ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM VORT MAX PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHRTWV OVER IA WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS INDIANA DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD CONFINE ANY SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO AREAS SOUTH
OF THE TERMINALS THOUGH SOME LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT FWA.
STILL SOME CONCERN FOR LLWS BLO 1KFT AT FWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING RESULTING IN LIGHT SFC WINDS WITH FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC. NO MENTION OF LLWS AT SBN
WITH LIGHTER FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 022359
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
759 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DIP TO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LAKE ERIE MARINE LAYER THAT MOVED IN ON NE FLOW ALONG WITH
DIURNAL CU FIELD HAS A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...BUT ALL IN ALL A VERY PLEASANT SHORT TERM AS THE
FORECAST AREA FINDS ITSELF NICELY POSITIONED BETWEEN A SPLIT IN
THE MID-UPPER FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SANDWICHED IN
BETWEEN OVER OUR AREA. NORTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ONTARIO
WHILE SOUTHERN WAVE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO TN/OH VALLEY AND
RE- INVIGORATE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS MAY PUSH SOME MID-
HIGH CLOUDS UP INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY BUT OTHERWISE COOL
DRY NE/E FLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH TEMPS
5-10F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOCAL AREA SHOULD BE POSITIONED BETWEEN SOUTHERN
AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD KEEP DRY AIR MASS ANCHORED IN PLACE...WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
NORTH. MID LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED NATURE OF PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINTENANCE
OF WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING THROUGH SUNDAY. A DRY AIR MASS
WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND VIA EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE EVOLUTION OF UPPER
FORCING AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MONDAY-TUESDAY. FAIRLY ROBUST
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PRECEDING THIS TROUGH...AND DAMPENING NATURE
OF THE UPPER WAVE AS IT REACHES SOUTHERN ONTARIO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SLOWING MODEL TREND OF PAST SEVERAL CYCLES. MORE VEERED LOW LEVEL
FLOW BY LATER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY PRECEDING THE FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BEST MOISTURE PROFILES OF THE PERIOD AND NOTICEABLY
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS
CENTERED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SLOWING NATURE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH FLOW DEAMPLIFICATION WILL KEEP AT LEAST A THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY GET A REINFORCING PUSH SOUTHWARD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS POINT TO ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM VORT MAX PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

RELATIVELY MUNDANE VFR MET CONDS TO CONT THROUGH THE FORECAST PD
AND BYND. SOME CONCERN WITH LLWS/BLO 1KFT AGL AS EASTERLY FLOW
BEGINS TO RAMP AT BASE OF SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACRS SRN/CNTL IN
OVERNIGHT...WITH KFWA ON NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE. DEGREE OF
PRESENCE/IMPACT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF SFC LYR
DECOUPLING. HAVE ADDED FOR NOW GIVEN SHORT TIME DURATION FOR POTNL
ONSET...AND WL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS SHOULD NEED FOR DELETION
BECOME EVIDENT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 022359
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
759 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DIP TO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LAKE ERIE MARINE LAYER THAT MOVED IN ON NE FLOW ALONG WITH
DIURNAL CU FIELD HAS A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...BUT ALL IN ALL A VERY PLEASANT SHORT TERM AS THE
FORECAST AREA FINDS ITSELF NICELY POSITIONED BETWEEN A SPLIT IN
THE MID-UPPER FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SANDWICHED IN
BETWEEN OVER OUR AREA. NORTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ONTARIO
WHILE SOUTHERN WAVE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO TN/OH VALLEY AND
RE- INVIGORATE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS MAY PUSH SOME MID-
HIGH CLOUDS UP INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY BUT OTHERWISE COOL
DRY NE/E FLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH TEMPS
5-10F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOCAL AREA SHOULD BE POSITIONED BETWEEN SOUTHERN
AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD KEEP DRY AIR MASS ANCHORED IN PLACE...WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
NORTH. MID LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED NATURE OF PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINTENANCE
OF WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING THROUGH SUNDAY. A DRY AIR MASS
WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND VIA EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE EVOLUTION OF UPPER
FORCING AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MONDAY-TUESDAY. FAIRLY ROBUST
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PRECEDING THIS TROUGH...AND DAMPENING NATURE
OF THE UPPER WAVE AS IT REACHES SOUTHERN ONTARIO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SLOWING MODEL TREND OF PAST SEVERAL CYCLES. MORE VEERED LOW LEVEL
FLOW BY LATER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY PRECEDING THE FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BEST MOISTURE PROFILES OF THE PERIOD AND NOTICEABLY
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS
CENTERED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SLOWING NATURE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH FLOW DEAMPLIFICATION WILL KEEP AT LEAST A THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY GET A REINFORCING PUSH SOUTHWARD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS POINT TO ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM VORT MAX PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

RELATIVELY MUNDANE VFR MET CONDS TO CONT THROUGH THE FORECAST PD
AND BYND. SOME CONCERN WITH LLWS/BLO 1KFT AGL AS EASTERLY FLOW
BEGINS TO RAMP AT BASE OF SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACRS SRN/CNTL IN
OVERNIGHT...WITH KFWA ON NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE. DEGREE OF
PRESENCE/IMPACT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF SFC LYR
DECOUPLING. HAVE ADDED FOR NOW GIVEN SHORT TIME DURATION FOR POTNL
ONSET...AND WL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS SHOULD NEED FOR DELETION
BECOME EVIDENT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 021905
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
305 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE SEEN BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LAKE ERIE MARINE LAYER THAT MOVED IN ON NE FLOW ALONG WITH
DIURNAL CU FIELD HAS A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...BUT ALL IN ALL A VERY PLEASANT SHORT TERM AS THE
FORECAST AREA FINDS ITSELF NICELY POSITIONED BETWEEN A SPLIT IN
THE MID-UPPER FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SANDWICHED IN
BETWEEN OVER OUR AREA. NORTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ONTARIO
WHILE SOUTHERN WAVE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO TN/OH VALLEY AND
RE- INVIGORATE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS MAY PUSH SOME MID-
HIGH CLOUDS UP INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY BUT OTHERWISE COOL
DRY NE/E FLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH TEMPS
5-10F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015


BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOCAL AREA SHOULD BE POSITIONED BETWEEN SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP
DRY AIR MASS ANCHORED IN PLACE...WITH ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. MID LEVEL
RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUING. SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED NATURE
OF PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINTENANCE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGHING THROUGH SUNDAY. A DRY AIR MASS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND VIA EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND BROAD SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE EVOLUTION OF UPPER
FORCING AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MONDAY-TUESDAY. FAIRLY ROBUST
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PRECEDING THIS TROUGH...AND DAMPENING NATURE
OF THE UPPER WAVE AS IT REACHES SOUTHERN ONTARIO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SLOWING MODEL TREND OF PAST SEVERAL CYCLES. MORE VEERED LOW LEVEL
FLOW BY LATER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY PRECEDING THE FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BEST MOISTURE PROFILES OF THE PERIOD AND NOTICEABLY
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS
CENTERED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SLOWING NATURE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH FLOW DEAMPLIFICATION WILL KEEP AT LEAST A THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY GET A REINFORCING PUSH SOUTHWARD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS POINT TO ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM VORT MAX PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 115 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

STUBBORN MVFR CLOUD DECK OVER KFWA RESULTING FROM NE FLOW BRINGING
LK ERIE MARINE LAYER INTO THE AREA TRAPPED UNDER 850MB INVERSION.
LATEST LAPS SOUNDING AT KFWA INDICATING INVERSION FINALLY ERODING
AND VIS SAT BEARS TRENDS INDICATING THE SAME AS CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
BREAK UP WHILE DIURNAL CU FIELD FILLING IN OVER KSBN AREA. EXPECT
BOTH LOCATIONS TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH LIGHT NE WINDS LT
10KTS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...JAL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 021905
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
305 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE SEEN BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LAKE ERIE MARINE LAYER THAT MOVED IN ON NE FLOW ALONG WITH
DIURNAL CU FIELD HAS A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...BUT ALL IN ALL A VERY PLEASANT SHORT TERM AS THE
FORECAST AREA FINDS ITSELF NICELY POSITIONED BETWEEN A SPLIT IN
THE MID-UPPER FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SANDWICHED IN
BETWEEN OVER OUR AREA. NORTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ONTARIO
WHILE SOUTHERN WAVE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO TN/OH VALLEY AND
RE- INVIGORATE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS MAY PUSH SOME MID-
HIGH CLOUDS UP INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY BUT OTHERWISE COOL
DRY NE/E FLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH TEMPS
5-10F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015


BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOCAL AREA SHOULD BE POSITIONED BETWEEN SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP
DRY AIR MASS ANCHORED IN PLACE...WITH ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. MID LEVEL
RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUING. SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED NATURE
OF PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINTENANCE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGHING THROUGH SUNDAY. A DRY AIR MASS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND VIA EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND BROAD SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE EVOLUTION OF UPPER
FORCING AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MONDAY-TUESDAY. FAIRLY ROBUST
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PRECEDING THIS TROUGH...AND DAMPENING NATURE
OF THE UPPER WAVE AS IT REACHES SOUTHERN ONTARIO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SLOWING MODEL TREND OF PAST SEVERAL CYCLES. MORE VEERED LOW LEVEL
FLOW BY LATER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY PRECEDING THE FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BEST MOISTURE PROFILES OF THE PERIOD AND NOTICEABLY
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS
CENTERED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SLOWING NATURE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH FLOW DEAMPLIFICATION WILL KEEP AT LEAST A THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY GET A REINFORCING PUSH SOUTHWARD AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS POINT TO ANOTHER NORTHERN
STREAM VORT MAX PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 115 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

STUBBORN MVFR CLOUD DECK OVER KFWA RESULTING FROM NE FLOW BRINGING
LK ERIE MARINE LAYER INTO THE AREA TRAPPED UNDER 850MB INVERSION.
LATEST LAPS SOUNDING AT KFWA INDICATING INVERSION FINALLY ERODING
AND VIS SAT BEARS TRENDS INDICATING THE SAME AS CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
BREAK UP WHILE DIURNAL CU FIELD FILLING IN OVER KSBN AREA. EXPECT
BOTH LOCATIONS TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH LIGHT NE WINDS LT
10KTS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...JAL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 021715
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
115 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE SEEN BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AT PRESS TIME WITH
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING IT. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVED OUT OF NE ILLINOIS BUT HAS SINCE FALLEN APART. KIWX RADAR
DOES SHOW SOME SPORADIC RETURNS SOUTH OF US-30 BUT HIGH BASES
PREVENTING ANYTHING FROM REACHING THE GROUND. NORTHERN EDGE OF
CLOUD COVER SHOULD EXIT THIS MORNING AND MAY LEAD TO MORE IN THE
WAY OF SUNSHINE. STILL MAINTAINING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCT CU
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR IF NOT WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS. NE
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND ALLOW LAKE SHORE
AREAS TO WARM MORESO THAN YESTERDAY.

DTX 00Z SOUNDING GIVE FORESIGHT INTO WHAT ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH VERY
DRY AIRMASS SET TO DRIFT S AND SW INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES. YET ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE...ESPECIALLY NE AREAS WHERE LOWS MAY
DIP INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

BROAD/DISJOINTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO OUR
NORTHEAST...COMBINED WITH STILL COOL/STABLE GREAT LAKES...WILL
MAINTAIN DECENT SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOUTHERN TRACK OF MAIN CVA BULLSEYE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL ENSURE A STEADY FEED OF COOL/DRY/STABLE
AIR IN NE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING WAVE. THIS WILL SHUNT
THE MAIN THETA- E GRADIENT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH AND MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA. A STRAY SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN OUR
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR MENTIONABLE POP. COOL START TO THE MORNING AND
CONTINUED (ALBEIT LIGHT) COOL AIR ADVECTION IN NE FLOW WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

PLEASANT WEATHER THEN SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
OUR CWA REMAINS IN THE DOLDRUMS OF SPLIT FLOW. ANOTHER MIDLEVEL WAVE
DOES RIPPLE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY BUT TOTAL
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF FORCING
SUGGEST ZERO IMPACT ON OUR AREA. IN FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS/RH
FIELDS SUGGEST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DO
EXPECT A STEADY WARMING TREND THOUGH...LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY AND STEADY AIRMASS MODIFICATION UNDER
NEARLY FULL SUN SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE LOW 80S BY THEN.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN DOESNT REALLY LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN
A MORE FORMIDABLE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. STILL A LOT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES TO WORK OUT BUT DO EXPECT
RAIN SOMETIME IN THE MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 115 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

STUBBORN MVFR CLOUD DECK OVER KFWA RESULTING FROM NE FLOW BRINGING
LK ERIE MARINE LAYER INTO THE AREA TRAPPED UNDER 850MB INVERSION.
LATEST LAPS SOUNDING AT KFWA INDICATING INVERSION FINALLY ERODING
AND VIS SAT BEARS TRENDS INDICATING THE SAME AS CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
BREAK UP WHILE DIURNAL CU FIELD FILLING IN OVER KSBN AREA. EXPECT
BOTH LOCATIONS TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH LIGHT NE WINDS LT
10KTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...JAL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 021715
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
115 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE SEEN BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AT PRESS TIME WITH
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING IT. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVED OUT OF NE ILLINOIS BUT HAS SINCE FALLEN APART. KIWX RADAR
DOES SHOW SOME SPORADIC RETURNS SOUTH OF US-30 BUT HIGH BASES
PREVENTING ANYTHING FROM REACHING THE GROUND. NORTHERN EDGE OF
CLOUD COVER SHOULD EXIT THIS MORNING AND MAY LEAD TO MORE IN THE
WAY OF SUNSHINE. STILL MAINTAINING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCT CU
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR IF NOT WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS. NE
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND ALLOW LAKE SHORE
AREAS TO WARM MORESO THAN YESTERDAY.

DTX 00Z SOUNDING GIVE FORESIGHT INTO WHAT ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH VERY
DRY AIRMASS SET TO DRIFT S AND SW INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES. YET ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE...ESPECIALLY NE AREAS WHERE LOWS MAY
DIP INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

BROAD/DISJOINTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO OUR
NORTHEAST...COMBINED WITH STILL COOL/STABLE GREAT LAKES...WILL
MAINTAIN DECENT SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOUTHERN TRACK OF MAIN CVA BULLSEYE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL ENSURE A STEADY FEED OF COOL/DRY/STABLE
AIR IN NE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING WAVE. THIS WILL SHUNT
THE MAIN THETA- E GRADIENT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH AND MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA. A STRAY SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN OUR
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR MENTIONABLE POP. COOL START TO THE MORNING AND
CONTINUED (ALBEIT LIGHT) COOL AIR ADVECTION IN NE FLOW WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

PLEASANT WEATHER THEN SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
OUR CWA REMAINS IN THE DOLDRUMS OF SPLIT FLOW. ANOTHER MIDLEVEL WAVE
DOES RIPPLE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY BUT TOTAL
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF FORCING
SUGGEST ZERO IMPACT ON OUR AREA. IN FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS/RH
FIELDS SUGGEST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DO
EXPECT A STEADY WARMING TREND THOUGH...LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY AND STEADY AIRMASS MODIFICATION UNDER
NEARLY FULL SUN SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE LOW 80S BY THEN.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN DOESNT REALLY LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN
A MORE FORMIDABLE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. STILL A LOT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES TO WORK OUT BUT DO EXPECT
RAIN SOMETIME IN THE MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 115 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

STUBBORN MVFR CLOUD DECK OVER KFWA RESULTING FROM NE FLOW BRINGING
LK ERIE MARINE LAYER INTO THE AREA TRAPPED UNDER 850MB INVERSION.
LATEST LAPS SOUNDING AT KFWA INDICATING INVERSION FINALLY ERODING
AND VIS SAT BEARS TRENDS INDICATING THE SAME AS CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
BREAK UP WHILE DIURNAL CU FIELD FILLING IN OVER KSBN AREA. EXPECT
BOTH LOCATIONS TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH LIGHT NE WINDS LT
10KTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...JAL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 021146
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
746 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE SEEN BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AT PRESS TIME WITH
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING IT. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVED OUT OF NE ILLINOIS BUT HAS SINCE FALLEN APART. KIWX RADAR
DOES SHOW SOME SPORADIC RETURNS SOUTH OF US-30 BUT HIGH BASES
PREVENTING ANYTHING FROM REACHING THE GROUND. NORTHERN EDGE OF
CLOUD COVER SHOULD EXIT THIS MORNING AND MAY LEAD TO MORE IN THE
WAY OF SUNSHINE. STILL MAINTAINING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCT CU
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR IF NOT WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS. NE
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND ALLOW LAKE SHORE
AREAS TO WARM MORESO THAN YESTERDAY.

DTX 00Z SOUNDING GIVE FORESIGHT INTO WHAT ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH VERY
DRY AIRMASS SET TO DRIFT S AND SW INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES. YET ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE...ESPECIALLY NE AREAS WHERE LOWS MAY
DIP INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

BROAD/DISJOINTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO OUR
NORTHEAST...COMBINED WITH STILL COOL/STABLE GREAT LAKES...WILL
MAINTAIN DECENT SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOUTHERN TRACK OF MAIN CVA BULLSEYE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL ENSURE A STEADY FEED OF COOL/DRY/STABLE
AIR IN NE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING WAVE. THIS WILL SHUNT
THE MAIN THETA- E GRADIENT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH AND MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA. A STRAY SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN OUR
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR MENTIONABLE POP. COOL START TO THE MORNING AND
CONTINUED (ALBEIT LIGHT) COOL AIR ADVECTION IN NE FLOW WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

PLEASANT WEATHER THEN SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
OUR CWA REMAINS IN THE DOLDRUMS OF SPLIT FLOW. ANOTHER MIDLEVEL WAVE
DOES RIPPLE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY BUT TOTAL
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF FORCING
SUGGEST ZERO IMPACT ON OUR AREA. IN FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS/RH
FIELDS SUGGEST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DO
EXPECT A STEADY WARMING TREND THOUGH...LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY AND STEADY AIRMASS MODIFICATION UNDER
NEARLY FULL SUN SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE LOW 80S BY THEN.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN DOESNT REALLY LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN
A MORE FORMIDABLE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. STILL A LOT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES TO WORK OUT BUT DO EXPECT
RAIN SOMETIME IN THE MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN DRIER AIR. REMOVED MENTION OF MVFR CIGS AT
KSBN AND KFWA WITH TRENDS FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU AND CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 021146
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
746 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE SEEN BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AT PRESS TIME WITH
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING IT. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVED OUT OF NE ILLINOIS BUT HAS SINCE FALLEN APART. KIWX RADAR
DOES SHOW SOME SPORADIC RETURNS SOUTH OF US-30 BUT HIGH BASES
PREVENTING ANYTHING FROM REACHING THE GROUND. NORTHERN EDGE OF
CLOUD COVER SHOULD EXIT THIS MORNING AND MAY LEAD TO MORE IN THE
WAY OF SUNSHINE. STILL MAINTAINING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCT CU
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR IF NOT WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS. NE
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND ALLOW LAKE SHORE
AREAS TO WARM MORESO THAN YESTERDAY.

DTX 00Z SOUNDING GIVE FORESIGHT INTO WHAT ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH VERY
DRY AIRMASS SET TO DRIFT S AND SW INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES. YET ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE...ESPECIALLY NE AREAS WHERE LOWS MAY
DIP INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

BROAD/DISJOINTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO OUR
NORTHEAST...COMBINED WITH STILL COOL/STABLE GREAT LAKES...WILL
MAINTAIN DECENT SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOUTHERN TRACK OF MAIN CVA BULLSEYE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL ENSURE A STEADY FEED OF COOL/DRY/STABLE
AIR IN NE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING WAVE. THIS WILL SHUNT
THE MAIN THETA- E GRADIENT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH AND MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA. A STRAY SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN OUR
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR MENTIONABLE POP. COOL START TO THE MORNING AND
CONTINUED (ALBEIT LIGHT) COOL AIR ADVECTION IN NE FLOW WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

PLEASANT WEATHER THEN SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
OUR CWA REMAINS IN THE DOLDRUMS OF SPLIT FLOW. ANOTHER MIDLEVEL WAVE
DOES RIPPLE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY BUT TOTAL
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF FORCING
SUGGEST ZERO IMPACT ON OUR AREA. IN FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS/RH
FIELDS SUGGEST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DO
EXPECT A STEADY WARMING TREND THOUGH...LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY AND STEADY AIRMASS MODIFICATION UNDER
NEARLY FULL SUN SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE LOW 80S BY THEN.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN DOESNT REALLY LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN
A MORE FORMIDABLE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. STILL A LOT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES TO WORK OUT BUT DO EXPECT
RAIN SOMETIME IN THE MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN DRIER AIR. REMOVED MENTION OF MVFR CIGS AT
KSBN AND KFWA WITH TRENDS FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU AND CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 021146
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
746 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE SEEN BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AT PRESS TIME WITH
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING IT. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVED OUT OF NE ILLINOIS BUT HAS SINCE FALLEN APART. KIWX RADAR
DOES SHOW SOME SPORADIC RETURNS SOUTH OF US-30 BUT HIGH BASES
PREVENTING ANYTHING FROM REACHING THE GROUND. NORTHERN EDGE OF
CLOUD COVER SHOULD EXIT THIS MORNING AND MAY LEAD TO MORE IN THE
WAY OF SUNSHINE. STILL MAINTAINING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCT CU
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR IF NOT WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS. NE
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND ALLOW LAKE SHORE
AREAS TO WARM MORESO THAN YESTERDAY.

DTX 00Z SOUNDING GIVE FORESIGHT INTO WHAT ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH VERY
DRY AIRMASS SET TO DRIFT S AND SW INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES. YET ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE...ESPECIALLY NE AREAS WHERE LOWS MAY
DIP INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

BROAD/DISJOINTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO OUR
NORTHEAST...COMBINED WITH STILL COOL/STABLE GREAT LAKES...WILL
MAINTAIN DECENT SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOUTHERN TRACK OF MAIN CVA BULLSEYE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL ENSURE A STEADY FEED OF COOL/DRY/STABLE
AIR IN NE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING WAVE. THIS WILL SHUNT
THE MAIN THETA- E GRADIENT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH AND MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA. A STRAY SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN OUR
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR MENTIONABLE POP. COOL START TO THE MORNING AND
CONTINUED (ALBEIT LIGHT) COOL AIR ADVECTION IN NE FLOW WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

PLEASANT WEATHER THEN SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
OUR CWA REMAINS IN THE DOLDRUMS OF SPLIT FLOW. ANOTHER MIDLEVEL WAVE
DOES RIPPLE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY BUT TOTAL
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF FORCING
SUGGEST ZERO IMPACT ON OUR AREA. IN FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS/RH
FIELDS SUGGEST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DO
EXPECT A STEADY WARMING TREND THOUGH...LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY AND STEADY AIRMASS MODIFICATION UNDER
NEARLY FULL SUN SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE LOW 80S BY THEN.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN DOESNT REALLY LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN
A MORE FORMIDABLE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. STILL A LOT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES TO WORK OUT BUT DO EXPECT
RAIN SOMETIME IN THE MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN DRIER AIR. REMOVED MENTION OF MVFR CIGS AT
KSBN AND KFWA WITH TRENDS FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU AND CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 021146
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
746 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE SEEN BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AT PRESS TIME WITH
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING IT. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVED OUT OF NE ILLINOIS BUT HAS SINCE FALLEN APART. KIWX RADAR
DOES SHOW SOME SPORADIC RETURNS SOUTH OF US-30 BUT HIGH BASES
PREVENTING ANYTHING FROM REACHING THE GROUND. NORTHERN EDGE OF
CLOUD COVER SHOULD EXIT THIS MORNING AND MAY LEAD TO MORE IN THE
WAY OF SUNSHINE. STILL MAINTAINING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCT CU
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR IF NOT WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS. NE
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND ALLOW LAKE SHORE
AREAS TO WARM MORESO THAN YESTERDAY.

DTX 00Z SOUNDING GIVE FORESIGHT INTO WHAT ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH VERY
DRY AIRMASS SET TO DRIFT S AND SW INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES. YET ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE...ESPECIALLY NE AREAS WHERE LOWS MAY
DIP INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

BROAD/DISJOINTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO OUR
NORTHEAST...COMBINED WITH STILL COOL/STABLE GREAT LAKES...WILL
MAINTAIN DECENT SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOUTHERN TRACK OF MAIN CVA BULLSEYE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL ENSURE A STEADY FEED OF COOL/DRY/STABLE
AIR IN NE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING WAVE. THIS WILL SHUNT
THE MAIN THETA- E GRADIENT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH AND MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA. A STRAY SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN OUR
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR MENTIONABLE POP. COOL START TO THE MORNING AND
CONTINUED (ALBEIT LIGHT) COOL AIR ADVECTION IN NE FLOW WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

PLEASANT WEATHER THEN SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
OUR CWA REMAINS IN THE DOLDRUMS OF SPLIT FLOW. ANOTHER MIDLEVEL WAVE
DOES RIPPLE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY BUT TOTAL
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF FORCING
SUGGEST ZERO IMPACT ON OUR AREA. IN FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS/RH
FIELDS SUGGEST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DO
EXPECT A STEADY WARMING TREND THOUGH...LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY AND STEADY AIRMASS MODIFICATION UNDER
NEARLY FULL SUN SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE LOW 80S BY THEN.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN DOESNT REALLY LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN
A MORE FORMIDABLE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. STILL A LOT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES TO WORK OUT BUT DO EXPECT
RAIN SOMETIME IN THE MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN DRIER AIR. REMOVED MENTION OF MVFR CIGS AT
KSBN AND KFWA WITH TRENDS FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU AND CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 020747
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
347 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE SEEN BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AT PRESS TIME WITH
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING IT. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVED OUT OF NE ILLINOIS BUT HAS SINCE FALLEN APART. KIWX RADAR
DOES SHOW SOME SPORADIC RETURNS SOUTH OF US-30 BUT HIGH BASES
PREVENTING ANYTHING FROM REACHING THE GROUND. NORTHERN EDGE OF
CLOUD COVER SHOULD EXIT THIS MORNING AND MAY LEAD TO MORE IN THE
WAY OF SUNSHINE. STILL MAINTAINING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCT CU
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR IF NOT WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS. NE
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND ALLOW LAKE SHORE
AREAS TO WARM MORESO THAN YESTERDAY.

DTX 00Z SOUNDING GIVE FORESIGHT INTO WHAT ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH VERY
DRY AIRMASS SET TO DRIFT S AND SW INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES. YET ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE...ESPECIALLY NE AREAS WHERE LOWS MAY
DIP INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015


BROAD/DISJOINTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO OUR
NORTHEAST...COMBINED WITH STILL COOL/STABLE GREAT LAKES...WILL
MAINTAIN DECENT SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SOUTHERN
TRACK OF MAIN CVA BULLSEYE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WILL ENSURE A STEADY FEED OF COOL/DRY/STABLE AIR IN NE
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING WAVE. THIS WILL SHUNT THE MAIN THETA-
E GRADIENT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH AND MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS FOR OUR
AREA. A STRAY SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR MENTIONABLE POP.
COOL START TO THE MORNING AND CONTINUED (ALBEIT LIGHT) COOL AIR
ADVECTION IN NE FLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

PLEASANT WEATHER THEN SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
OUR CWA REMAINS IN THE DOLDRUMS OF SPLIT FLOW. ANOTHER MIDLEVEL WAVE
DOES RIPPLE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY BUT TOTAL
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF FORCING
SUGGEST ZERO IMPACT ON OUR AREA. IN FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS/RH
FIELDS SUGGEST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DO
EXPECT A STEADY WARMING TREND THOUGH...LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY AND STEADY AIRMASS MODIFICATION UNDER
NEARLY FULL SUN SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE LOW 80S BY THEN.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN DOESNT REALLY LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN
A MORE FORMIDABLE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. STILL A LOT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES TO WORK OUT BUT DO EXPECT
RAIN SOMETIME IN THE MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS TOWARDS 12Z GIVEN LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MSTR. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONTINUATION OF
TEMPO GROUP IN KFWA SO HAVE CONFINED TO 6SM BR FOR A FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE SCT CU/SC WILL BE AROUND INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE A
STRONGER PUSH OF DRY AIR COMES IN FROM THE N AND NE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 020747
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
347 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE SEEN BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AT PRESS TIME WITH
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING IT. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVED OUT OF NE ILLINOIS BUT HAS SINCE FALLEN APART. KIWX RADAR
DOES SHOW SOME SPORADIC RETURNS SOUTH OF US-30 BUT HIGH BASES
PREVENTING ANYTHING FROM REACHING THE GROUND. NORTHERN EDGE OF
CLOUD COVER SHOULD EXIT THIS MORNING AND MAY LEAD TO MORE IN THE
WAY OF SUNSHINE. STILL MAINTAINING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCT CU
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR IF NOT WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS. NE
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND ALLOW LAKE SHORE
AREAS TO WARM MORESO THAN YESTERDAY.

DTX 00Z SOUNDING GIVE FORESIGHT INTO WHAT ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH VERY
DRY AIRMASS SET TO DRIFT S AND SW INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES. YET ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE...ESPECIALLY NE AREAS WHERE LOWS MAY
DIP INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015


BROAD/DISJOINTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO OUR
NORTHEAST...COMBINED WITH STILL COOL/STABLE GREAT LAKES...WILL
MAINTAIN DECENT SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SOUTHERN
TRACK OF MAIN CVA BULLSEYE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WILL ENSURE A STEADY FEED OF COOL/DRY/STABLE AIR IN NE
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING WAVE. THIS WILL SHUNT THE MAIN THETA-
E GRADIENT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH AND MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS FOR OUR
AREA. A STRAY SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR MENTIONABLE POP.
COOL START TO THE MORNING AND CONTINUED (ALBEIT LIGHT) COOL AIR
ADVECTION IN NE FLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

PLEASANT WEATHER THEN SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
OUR CWA REMAINS IN THE DOLDRUMS OF SPLIT FLOW. ANOTHER MIDLEVEL WAVE
DOES RIPPLE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY BUT TOTAL
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF FORCING
SUGGEST ZERO IMPACT ON OUR AREA. IN FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS/RH
FIELDS SUGGEST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DO
EXPECT A STEADY WARMING TREND THOUGH...LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY AND STEADY AIRMASS MODIFICATION UNDER
NEARLY FULL SUN SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE LOW 80S BY THEN.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN DOESNT REALLY LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN
A MORE FORMIDABLE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. STILL A LOT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES TO WORK OUT BUT DO EXPECT
RAIN SOMETIME IN THE MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS TOWARDS 12Z GIVEN LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MSTR. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONTINUATION OF
TEMPO GROUP IN KFWA SO HAVE CONFINED TO 6SM BR FOR A FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE SCT CU/SC WILL BE AROUND INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE A
STRONGER PUSH OF DRY AIR COMES IN FROM THE N AND NE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 020542
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
142 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF
OUR AREA DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG AWAITED QUIET...DRY PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TRACKING...HAS SETTLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THIS DRY PERIOD WILL BE
CRUCIAL TO DRYING OUR LOCAL SOILS AFTER RECORD SETTING JUNE RAINS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL IN THE MID
70S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. ONLY TWEAK TO FRIDAY POPS WAS TO SHAVE A BIT
OFF NORTHERN EXTENT GIVEN LATEST TRENDS...AND JUST TO MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH. A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON THE HEELS OF THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT WILL
HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE TO ALLOW FOR
MAINTENANCE OF A BROAD WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH LIKELY APPROACHING THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR
HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PASSAGE OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK
ANTICYCLONE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO RAMP UP A BIT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS...BUT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORIES WILL NOT BE OVERLY EFFICIENT IN TERMS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF INTEREST FOR THE LONG TERM STILL APPEARS TO
BE THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TRACKS ALONG NORTHERN TIER CONUS/SOUTHERN CANADA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
ZONE...BUT CONTINUED TIMING UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANYTHING MORE
THAN A LOW TO MID CHANCE POP TSRA MENTION FOR ANY 12 HOUR PERIOD
MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS CONTINUES TO BE
THE EXPECTATION OF SEVERAL DRY DAYS BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPROVEMENT IN RIVER FLOODING STATUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S BY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AN UPSWING IN HUMIDITY
ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS TOWARDS 12Z GIVEN LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MSTR. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONTINUATION OF
TEMPO GROUP IN KFWA SO HAVE CONFINED TO 6SM BR FOR A FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE SCT CU/SC WILL BE AROUND INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE A
STRONGER PUSH OF DRY AIR COMES IN FROM THE N AND NE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 020542
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
142 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF
OUR AREA DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG AWAITED QUIET...DRY PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TRACKING...HAS SETTLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THIS DRY PERIOD WILL BE
CRUCIAL TO DRYING OUR LOCAL SOILS AFTER RECORD SETTING JUNE RAINS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL IN THE MID
70S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. ONLY TWEAK TO FRIDAY POPS WAS TO SHAVE A BIT
OFF NORTHERN EXTENT GIVEN LATEST TRENDS...AND JUST TO MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH. A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON THE HEELS OF THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT WILL
HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE TO ALLOW FOR
MAINTENANCE OF A BROAD WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH LIKELY APPROACHING THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR
HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PASSAGE OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK
ANTICYCLONE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO RAMP UP A BIT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS...BUT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORIES WILL NOT BE OVERLY EFFICIENT IN TERMS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF INTEREST FOR THE LONG TERM STILL APPEARS TO
BE THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TRACKS ALONG NORTHERN TIER CONUS/SOUTHERN CANADA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
ZONE...BUT CONTINUED TIMING UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANYTHING MORE
THAN A LOW TO MID CHANCE POP TSRA MENTION FOR ANY 12 HOUR PERIOD
MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS CONTINUES TO BE
THE EXPECTATION OF SEVERAL DRY DAYS BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPROVEMENT IN RIVER FLOODING STATUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S BY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AN UPSWING IN HUMIDITY
ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS TOWARDS 12Z GIVEN LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MSTR. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONTINUATION OF
TEMPO GROUP IN KFWA SO HAVE CONFINED TO 6SM BR FOR A FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE SCT CU/SC WILL BE AROUND INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE A
STRONGER PUSH OF DRY AIR COMES IN FROM THE N AND NE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 012355
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
755 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF
OUR AREA DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG AWAITED QUIET...DRY PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TRACKING...HAS SETTLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THIS DRY PERIOD WILL BE
CRUCIAL TO DRYING OUR LOCAL SOILS AFTER RECORD SETTING JUNE RAINS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL IN THE MID
70S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. ONLY TWEAK TO FRIDAY POPS WAS TO SHAVE A BIT
OFF NORTHERN EXTENT GIVEN LATEST TRENDS...AND JUST TO MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH. A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON THE HEELS OF THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT WILL
HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE TO ALLOW FOR
MAINTENANCE OF A BROAD WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH LIKELY APPROACHING THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR
HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PASSAGE OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK
ANTICYCLONE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO RAMP UP A BIT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS...BUT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORIES WILL NOT BE OVERLY EFFICIENT IN TERMS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF INTEREST FOR THE LONG TERM STILL APPEARS TO
BE THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TRACKS ALONG NORTHERN TIER CONUS/SOUTHERN CANADA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
ZONE...BUT CONTINUED TIMING UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANYTHING MORE
THAN A LOW TO MID CHANCE POP TSRA MENTION FOR ANY 12 HOUR PERIOD
MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS CONTINUES TO BE
THE EXPECTATION OF SEVERAL DRY DAYS BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPROVEMENT IN RIVER FLOODING STATUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S BY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AN UPSWING IN HUMIDITY
ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

BY AND LARGE ANTICIPATE VFR MET CONDS TO CONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PD ACRS NRN IN. LITTLE MORE THAN MID/UPR LEVEL
CLOUDS/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVERNIGHT. RELATIVELY HIGH XOVER TEMP/59F
AT KFWA PORTENDS TO BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION POTNL NEAR SUNUP.
THEREAFTER...BRIEF PD OF STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT WITH CIGS AROUND
2KFT AS MIXING ENSUES ALONG INITIALLY LOW LCL HGHTS. WITH TIME
MIXING OUT TO SCT HIR CU FIELD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 012355
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
755 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF
OUR AREA DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG AWAITED QUIET...DRY PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TRACKING...HAS SETTLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THIS DRY PERIOD WILL BE
CRUCIAL TO DRYING OUR LOCAL SOILS AFTER RECORD SETTING JUNE RAINS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL IN THE MID
70S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. ONLY TWEAK TO FRIDAY POPS WAS TO SHAVE A BIT
OFF NORTHERN EXTENT GIVEN LATEST TRENDS...AND JUST TO MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH. A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON THE HEELS OF THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT WILL
HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE TO ALLOW FOR
MAINTENANCE OF A BROAD WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH LIKELY APPROACHING THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR
HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PASSAGE OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK
ANTICYCLONE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO RAMP UP A BIT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS...BUT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORIES WILL NOT BE OVERLY EFFICIENT IN TERMS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF INTEREST FOR THE LONG TERM STILL APPEARS TO
BE THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TRACKS ALONG NORTHERN TIER CONUS/SOUTHERN CANADA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
ZONE...BUT CONTINUED TIMING UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANYTHING MORE
THAN A LOW TO MID CHANCE POP TSRA MENTION FOR ANY 12 HOUR PERIOD
MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS CONTINUES TO BE
THE EXPECTATION OF SEVERAL DRY DAYS BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPROVEMENT IN RIVER FLOODING STATUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S BY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AN UPSWING IN HUMIDITY
ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

BY AND LARGE ANTICIPATE VFR MET CONDS TO CONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PD ACRS NRN IN. LITTLE MORE THAN MID/UPR LEVEL
CLOUDS/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVERNIGHT. RELATIVELY HIGH XOVER TEMP/59F
AT KFWA PORTENDS TO BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION POTNL NEAR SUNUP.
THEREAFTER...BRIEF PD OF STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT WITH CIGS AROUND
2KFT AS MIXING ENSUES ALONG INITIALLY LOW LCL HGHTS. WITH TIME
MIXING OUT TO SCT HIR CU FIELD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 012355
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
755 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF
OUR AREA DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG AWAITED QUIET...DRY PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TRACKING...HAS SETTLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THIS DRY PERIOD WILL BE
CRUCIAL TO DRYING OUR LOCAL SOILS AFTER RECORD SETTING JUNE RAINS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL IN THE MID
70S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. ONLY TWEAK TO FRIDAY POPS WAS TO SHAVE A BIT
OFF NORTHERN EXTENT GIVEN LATEST TRENDS...AND JUST TO MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH. A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON THE HEELS OF THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT WILL
HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE TO ALLOW FOR
MAINTENANCE OF A BROAD WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH LIKELY APPROACHING THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR
HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PASSAGE OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK
ANTICYCLONE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO RAMP UP A BIT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS...BUT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORIES WILL NOT BE OVERLY EFFICIENT IN TERMS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF INTEREST FOR THE LONG TERM STILL APPEARS TO
BE THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TRACKS ALONG NORTHERN TIER CONUS/SOUTHERN CANADA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
ZONE...BUT CONTINUED TIMING UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANYTHING MORE
THAN A LOW TO MID CHANCE POP TSRA MENTION FOR ANY 12 HOUR PERIOD
MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS CONTINUES TO BE
THE EXPECTATION OF SEVERAL DRY DAYS BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPROVEMENT IN RIVER FLOODING STATUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S BY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AN UPSWING IN HUMIDITY
ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

BY AND LARGE ANTICIPATE VFR MET CONDS TO CONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PD ACRS NRN IN. LITTLE MORE THAN MID/UPR LEVEL
CLOUDS/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVERNIGHT. RELATIVELY HIGH XOVER TEMP/59F
AT KFWA PORTENDS TO BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION POTNL NEAR SUNUP.
THEREAFTER...BRIEF PD OF STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT WITH CIGS AROUND
2KFT AS MIXING ENSUES ALONG INITIALLY LOW LCL HGHTS. WITH TIME
MIXING OUT TO SCT HIR CU FIELD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 012355
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
755 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF
OUR AREA DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG AWAITED QUIET...DRY PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TRACKING...HAS SETTLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THIS DRY PERIOD WILL BE
CRUCIAL TO DRYING OUR LOCAL SOILS AFTER RECORD SETTING JUNE RAINS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL IN THE MID
70S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. ONLY TWEAK TO FRIDAY POPS WAS TO SHAVE A BIT
OFF NORTHERN EXTENT GIVEN LATEST TRENDS...AND JUST TO MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH. A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON THE HEELS OF THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT WILL
HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE TO ALLOW FOR
MAINTENANCE OF A BROAD WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH LIKELY APPROACHING THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR
HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PASSAGE OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK
ANTICYCLONE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO RAMP UP A BIT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS...BUT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORIES WILL NOT BE OVERLY EFFICIENT IN TERMS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF INTEREST FOR THE LONG TERM STILL APPEARS TO
BE THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TRACKS ALONG NORTHERN TIER CONUS/SOUTHERN CANADA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
ZONE...BUT CONTINUED TIMING UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANYTHING MORE
THAN A LOW TO MID CHANCE POP TSRA MENTION FOR ANY 12 HOUR PERIOD
MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS CONTINUES TO BE
THE EXPECTATION OF SEVERAL DRY DAYS BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPROVEMENT IN RIVER FLOODING STATUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S BY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH AN UPSWING IN HUMIDITY
ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

BY AND LARGE ANTICIPATE VFR MET CONDS TO CONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PD ACRS NRN IN. LITTLE MORE THAN MID/UPR LEVEL
CLOUDS/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVERNIGHT. RELATIVELY HIGH XOVER TEMP/59F
AT KFWA PORTENDS TO BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION POTNL NEAR SUNUP.
THEREAFTER...BRIEF PD OF STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT WITH CIGS AROUND
2KFT AS MIXING ENSUES ALONG INITIALLY LOW LCL HGHTS. WITH TIME
MIXING OUT TO SCT HIR CU FIELD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 011921
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
321 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF
OUR AREA DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
50S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG AWAITED QUIET...DRY PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TRACKING...HAS SETTLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THIS DRY PERIOD WILL BE
CRUCIAL TO DRYING OUR LOCAL SOILS AFTER RECORD SETTING JUNE RAINS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL IN THE MID
70S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. ONLY TWEAK TO FRIDAY POPS WAS TO SHAVE A BIT
OFF NORTHERN EXTENT GIVEN LATEST TRENDS...AND JUST TO MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH. A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON THE HEELS OF THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT WILL
HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE TO ALLOW FOR
MAINTENANCE OF A BROAD WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH LIKELY APPROACHING THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR
HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PASSAGE OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK ANTICYCLONE
TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED
QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RAMP UP A BIT
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS...BUT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TRAJECTORIES WILL NOT BE OVERLY EFFICIENT IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF INTEREST FOR THE LONG TERM STILL APPEARS TO BE
THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL WAVE
TRACKS ALONG NORTHERN TIER CONUS/SOUTHERN CANADA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD LOOK TO BE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE...BUT CONTINUED
TIMING UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANYTHING MORE THAN A LOW TO MID CHANCE
POP TSRA MENTION FOR ANY 12 HOUR PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY
EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTATION OF SEVERAL
DRY DAYS BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
IMPROVEMENT IN RIVER FLOODING STATUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH AN UPSWING IN HUMIDITY ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT EXPECT THOSE LOWER CIGS TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF BOTH KSBN AND KFWA. WINDS WILL VEER FROM
NW TO NNE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...BENTLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 011921
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
321 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF
OUR AREA DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
50S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG AWAITED QUIET...DRY PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TRACKING...HAS SETTLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THIS DRY PERIOD WILL BE
CRUCIAL TO DRYING OUR LOCAL SOILS AFTER RECORD SETTING JUNE RAINS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL IN THE MID
70S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. ONLY TWEAK TO FRIDAY POPS WAS TO SHAVE A BIT
OFF NORTHERN EXTENT GIVEN LATEST TRENDS...AND JUST TO MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH. A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON THE HEELS OF THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT WILL
HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE TO ALLOW FOR
MAINTENANCE OF A BROAD WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH LIKELY APPROACHING THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR
HIGHS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PASSAGE OF THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK ANTICYCLONE
TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED
QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RAMP UP A BIT
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS...BUT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TRAJECTORIES WILL NOT BE OVERLY EFFICIENT IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF INTEREST FOR THE LONG TERM STILL APPEARS TO BE
THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL WAVE
TRACKS ALONG NORTHERN TIER CONUS/SOUTHERN CANADA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD LOOK TO BE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH OF ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE...BUT CONTINUED
TIMING UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANYTHING MORE THAN A LOW TO MID CHANCE
POP TSRA MENTION FOR ANY 12 HOUR PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY
EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS CONTINUES TO BE THE EXPECTATION OF SEVERAL
DRY DAYS BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
IMPROVEMENT IN RIVER FLOODING STATUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH AN UPSWING IN HUMIDITY ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT EXPECT THOSE LOWER CIGS TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF BOTH KSBN AND KFWA. WINDS WILL VEER FROM
NW TO NNE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...BENTLEY
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...BENTLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 011756 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
153 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF
OUR AREA DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
50S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MOTHER NATURE LOOKS TO HAVE FINALLY TURNED OFF THE FAUCET ON THE
AREA AS THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFTS WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNTIL IT FULLY SETTLES INTO THE
REGION...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MSTR AND A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
CAUSE CLOUD COVER ISSUES...FIRST IN THE FORM OF STRATUS...WHICH CAN
BE SEEN SLOWLY EXPANDING SOUTHWARD FROM LWR MI/LK MI/WI. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR ALL AREAS...BUT BACKED OFF "AREAS" WORDING
FOR NOW. SOME MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AS TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CU/STRATOCU THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON INLAND EXTENT FOR THE TIME
BEING GIVEN SEVERAL HI RES MODELS SHOWING CLOUDS STICKING THROUGH
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON AMOUNT OF LEFT OVER MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER. KEPT WITH MIDDLE OF THE ROAD PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR AS DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN. LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A MUCH WELCOMED SIGH OF RELIEF WHEN PERUSING THE 00Z NWP SUITE.
EARLIER NOTED DRYING TREND CONTINUES WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
AND ASSOCIATED BELT OF ACTIVE WEATHER PUSHING JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO GIVE OUR CWA A BREATHER FROM WET WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND. MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL
DIG INTO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
THURSDAY...TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY PER LATEST
GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVER ONTARIO WITH
SPLIT FLOW/WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NESTLED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
PATTERN ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP
THETA-E TROUGH IN PLACE LOCALLY WITH NO INSTABILITY BENEATH A
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED AROUND 800MB. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST EVERYWHERE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING WITH
JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS A PLEASANT MID TO UPPER 70S.
00Z GFS DOES TRY TO GLANCE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH QPF
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IS AN OUTLIER IN THIS RESPECT AND WILL BE IGNORED.

SPLIT FLOW THEN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
SLOWLY MODERATING BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. DID MAINTAIN SOME TOKEN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST MIDLEVEL VORT MAX MAY PASS JUST FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO DRAG SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA
WITH MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND WEAK CVA TOUCHING OFF A
FEW SHOWERS. HAVE SERIOUS DOUBTS PRECIP WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH
THOUGH GIVEN PRIMARILY DRY EASTERLY FLOW IN BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AS
WELL AS WEAK FORCING AND LOW INSTABILITY. EVEN IF IT DOES...SHOULD
BE LIGHT...SCATTERED...AND OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE TO FLOODING
CONCERNS. ANOTHER RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS WEEKEND AND HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS BASED ON CONSENSUS OF LATEST
GLOBAL GUIDANCE. EVEN MONDAY COULD BE DRY AS LATEST GFS AND GEM
(EVEN ECMWF TO A LESSER EXTENT) ARE ALL MUCH SLOWER WITH NEXT COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY BUT THESE TOO
COULD BE CUT IF SLOWER/DRIER TREND CONTINUES. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
DONT LOOK TO RETURN UNTIL TUESDAY...ALLOWING PLENTY OF TIME FOR
FLOODING TO ABATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT EXPECT THOSE LOWER CIGS TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF BOTH KSBN AND KFWA. WINDS WILL VEER FROM
NW TO NNE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...BENTLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 011756 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
153 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF
OUR AREA DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
50S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MOTHER NATURE LOOKS TO HAVE FINALLY TURNED OFF THE FAUCET ON THE
AREA AS THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFTS WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNTIL IT FULLY SETTLES INTO THE
REGION...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MSTR AND A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
CAUSE CLOUD COVER ISSUES...FIRST IN THE FORM OF STRATUS...WHICH CAN
BE SEEN SLOWLY EXPANDING SOUTHWARD FROM LWR MI/LK MI/WI. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR ALL AREAS...BUT BACKED OFF "AREAS" WORDING
FOR NOW. SOME MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AS TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CU/STRATOCU THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON INLAND EXTENT FOR THE TIME
BEING GIVEN SEVERAL HI RES MODELS SHOWING CLOUDS STICKING THROUGH
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON AMOUNT OF LEFT OVER MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER. KEPT WITH MIDDLE OF THE ROAD PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR AS DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN. LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A MUCH WELCOMED SIGH OF RELIEF WHEN PERUSING THE 00Z NWP SUITE.
EARLIER NOTED DRYING TREND CONTINUES WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
AND ASSOCIATED BELT OF ACTIVE WEATHER PUSHING JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO GIVE OUR CWA A BREATHER FROM WET WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND. MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL
DIG INTO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
THURSDAY...TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY PER LATEST
GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVER ONTARIO WITH
SPLIT FLOW/WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NESTLED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
PATTERN ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP
THETA-E TROUGH IN PLACE LOCALLY WITH NO INSTABILITY BENEATH A
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED AROUND 800MB. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST EVERYWHERE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING WITH
JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS A PLEASANT MID TO UPPER 70S.
00Z GFS DOES TRY TO GLANCE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH QPF
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IS AN OUTLIER IN THIS RESPECT AND WILL BE IGNORED.

SPLIT FLOW THEN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
SLOWLY MODERATING BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. DID MAINTAIN SOME TOKEN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST MIDLEVEL VORT MAX MAY PASS JUST FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO DRAG SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA
WITH MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND WEAK CVA TOUCHING OFF A
FEW SHOWERS. HAVE SERIOUS DOUBTS PRECIP WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH
THOUGH GIVEN PRIMARILY DRY EASTERLY FLOW IN BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AS
WELL AS WEAK FORCING AND LOW INSTABILITY. EVEN IF IT DOES...SHOULD
BE LIGHT...SCATTERED...AND OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE TO FLOODING
CONCERNS. ANOTHER RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS WEEKEND AND HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS BASED ON CONSENSUS OF LATEST
GLOBAL GUIDANCE. EVEN MONDAY COULD BE DRY AS LATEST GFS AND GEM
(EVEN ECMWF TO A LESSER EXTENT) ARE ALL MUCH SLOWER WITH NEXT COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY BUT THESE TOO
COULD BE CUT IF SLOWER/DRIER TREND CONTINUES. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
DONT LOOK TO RETURN UNTIL TUESDAY...ALLOWING PLENTY OF TIME FOR
FLOODING TO ABATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT EXPECT THOSE LOWER CIGS TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF BOTH KSBN AND KFWA. WINDS WILL VEER FROM
NW TO NNE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...BENTLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 011756 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
153 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF
OUR AREA DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
50S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MOTHER NATURE LOOKS TO HAVE FINALLY TURNED OFF THE FAUCET ON THE
AREA AS THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFTS WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNTIL IT FULLY SETTLES INTO THE
REGION...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MSTR AND A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
CAUSE CLOUD COVER ISSUES...FIRST IN THE FORM OF STRATUS...WHICH CAN
BE SEEN SLOWLY EXPANDING SOUTHWARD FROM LWR MI/LK MI/WI. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR ALL AREAS...BUT BACKED OFF "AREAS" WORDING
FOR NOW. SOME MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AS TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CU/STRATOCU THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON INLAND EXTENT FOR THE TIME
BEING GIVEN SEVERAL HI RES MODELS SHOWING CLOUDS STICKING THROUGH
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON AMOUNT OF LEFT OVER MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER. KEPT WITH MIDDLE OF THE ROAD PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR AS DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN. LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A MUCH WELCOMED SIGH OF RELIEF WHEN PERUSING THE 00Z NWP SUITE.
EARLIER NOTED DRYING TREND CONTINUES WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
AND ASSOCIATED BELT OF ACTIVE WEATHER PUSHING JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO GIVE OUR CWA A BREATHER FROM WET WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND. MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL
DIG INTO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
THURSDAY...TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY PER LATEST
GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVER ONTARIO WITH
SPLIT FLOW/WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NESTLED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
PATTERN ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP
THETA-E TROUGH IN PLACE LOCALLY WITH NO INSTABILITY BENEATH A
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED AROUND 800MB. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST EVERYWHERE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING WITH
JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS A PLEASANT MID TO UPPER 70S.
00Z GFS DOES TRY TO GLANCE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH QPF
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IS AN OUTLIER IN THIS RESPECT AND WILL BE IGNORED.

SPLIT FLOW THEN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
SLOWLY MODERATING BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. DID MAINTAIN SOME TOKEN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST MIDLEVEL VORT MAX MAY PASS JUST FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO DRAG SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA
WITH MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND WEAK CVA TOUCHING OFF A
FEW SHOWERS. HAVE SERIOUS DOUBTS PRECIP WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH
THOUGH GIVEN PRIMARILY DRY EASTERLY FLOW IN BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AS
WELL AS WEAK FORCING AND LOW INSTABILITY. EVEN IF IT DOES...SHOULD
BE LIGHT...SCATTERED...AND OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE TO FLOODING
CONCERNS. ANOTHER RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS WEEKEND AND HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS BASED ON CONSENSUS OF LATEST
GLOBAL GUIDANCE. EVEN MONDAY COULD BE DRY AS LATEST GFS AND GEM
(EVEN ECMWF TO A LESSER EXTENT) ARE ALL MUCH SLOWER WITH NEXT COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY BUT THESE TOO
COULD BE CUT IF SLOWER/DRIER TREND CONTINUES. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
DONT LOOK TO RETURN UNTIL TUESDAY...ALLOWING PLENTY OF TIME FOR
FLOODING TO ABATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT EXPECT THOSE LOWER CIGS TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF BOTH KSBN AND KFWA. WINDS WILL VEER FROM
NW TO NNE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...BENTLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 011756 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
153 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF
OUR AREA DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
50S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MOTHER NATURE LOOKS TO HAVE FINALLY TURNED OFF THE FAUCET ON THE
AREA AS THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFTS WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNTIL IT FULLY SETTLES INTO THE
REGION...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MSTR AND A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
CAUSE CLOUD COVER ISSUES...FIRST IN THE FORM OF STRATUS...WHICH CAN
BE SEEN SLOWLY EXPANDING SOUTHWARD FROM LWR MI/LK MI/WI. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR ALL AREAS...BUT BACKED OFF "AREAS" WORDING
FOR NOW. SOME MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AS TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CU/STRATOCU THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON INLAND EXTENT FOR THE TIME
BEING GIVEN SEVERAL HI RES MODELS SHOWING CLOUDS STICKING THROUGH
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON AMOUNT OF LEFT OVER MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER. KEPT WITH MIDDLE OF THE ROAD PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR AS DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN. LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A MUCH WELCOMED SIGH OF RELIEF WHEN PERUSING THE 00Z NWP SUITE.
EARLIER NOTED DRYING TREND CONTINUES WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
AND ASSOCIATED BELT OF ACTIVE WEATHER PUSHING JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO GIVE OUR CWA A BREATHER FROM WET WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND. MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL
DIG INTO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
THURSDAY...TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY PER LATEST
GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVER ONTARIO WITH
SPLIT FLOW/WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NESTLED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
PATTERN ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP
THETA-E TROUGH IN PLACE LOCALLY WITH NO INSTABILITY BENEATH A
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED AROUND 800MB. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST EVERYWHERE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING WITH
JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS A PLEASANT MID TO UPPER 70S.
00Z GFS DOES TRY TO GLANCE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH QPF
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IS AN OUTLIER IN THIS RESPECT AND WILL BE IGNORED.

SPLIT FLOW THEN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
SLOWLY MODERATING BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. DID MAINTAIN SOME TOKEN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST MIDLEVEL VORT MAX MAY PASS JUST FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO DRAG SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA
WITH MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND WEAK CVA TOUCHING OFF A
FEW SHOWERS. HAVE SERIOUS DOUBTS PRECIP WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH
THOUGH GIVEN PRIMARILY DRY EASTERLY FLOW IN BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AS
WELL AS WEAK FORCING AND LOW INSTABILITY. EVEN IF IT DOES...SHOULD
BE LIGHT...SCATTERED...AND OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE TO FLOODING
CONCERNS. ANOTHER RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS WEEKEND AND HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS BASED ON CONSENSUS OF LATEST
GLOBAL GUIDANCE. EVEN MONDAY COULD BE DRY AS LATEST GFS AND GEM
(EVEN ECMWF TO A LESSER EXTENT) ARE ALL MUCH SLOWER WITH NEXT COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY BUT THESE TOO
COULD BE CUT IF SLOWER/DRIER TREND CONTINUES. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
DONT LOOK TO RETURN UNTIL TUESDAY...ALLOWING PLENTY OF TIME FOR
FLOODING TO ABATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT EXPECT THOSE LOWER CIGS TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF BOTH KSBN AND KFWA. WINDS WILL VEER FROM
NW TO NNE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...BENTLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 011753
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
153 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF
OUR AREA DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
50S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MOTHER NATURE LOOKS TO HAVE FINALLY TURNED OFF THE FAUCET ON THE
AREA AS THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFTS WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNTIL IT FULLY SETTLES INTO THE
REGION...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MSTR AND A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
CAUSE CLOUD COVER ISSUES...FIRST IN THE FORM OF STRATUS...WHICH CAN
BE SEEN SLOWLY EXPANDING SOUTHWARD FROM LWR MI/LK MI/WI. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR ALL AREAS...BUT BACKED OFF "AREAS" WORDING
FOR NOW. SOME MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AS TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CU/STRATOCU THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON INLAND EXTENT FOR THE TIME
BEING GIVEN SEVERAL HI RES MODELS SHOWING CLOUDS STICKING THROUGH
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON AMOUNT OF LEFT OVER MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER. KEPT WITH MIDDLE OF THE ROAD PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR AS DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN. LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A MUCH WELCOMED SIGH OF RELIEF WHEN PERUSING THE 00Z NWP SUITE.
EARLIER NOTED DRYING TREND CONTINUES WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
AND ASSOCIATED BELT OF ACTIVE WEATHER PUSHING JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO GIVE OUR CWA A BREATHER FROM WET WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND. MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL
DIG INTO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
THURSDAY...TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY PER LATEST
GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVER ONTARIO WITH
SPLIT FLOW/WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NESTLED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
PATTERN ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP
THETA-E TROUGH IN PLACE LOCALLY WITH NO INSTABILITY BENEATH A
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED AROUND 800MB. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST EVERYWHERE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING WITH
JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS A PLEASANT MID TO UPPER 70S.
00Z GFS DOES TRY TO GLANCE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH QPF
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IS AN OUTLIER IN THIS RESPECT AND WILL BE IGNORED.

SPLIT FLOW THEN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
SLOWLY MODERATING BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. DID MAINTAIN SOME TOKEN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST MIDLEVEL VORT MAX MAY PASS JUST FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO DRAG SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA
WITH MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND WEAK CVA TOUCHING OFF A
FEW SHOWERS. HAVE SERIOUS DOUBTS PRECIP WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH
THOUGH GIVEN PRIMARILY DRY EASTERLY FLOW IN BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AS
WELL AS WEAK FORCING AND LOW INSTABILITY. EVEN IF IT DOES...SHOULD
BE LIGHT...SCATTERED...AND OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE TO FLOODING
CONCERNS. ANOTHER RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS WEEKEND AND HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS BASED ON CONSENSUS OF LATEST
GLOBAL GUIDANCE. EVEN MONDAY COULD BE DRY AS LATEST GFS AND GEM
(EVEN ECMWF TO A LESSER EXTENT) ARE ALL MUCH SLOWER WITH NEXT COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY BUT THESE TOO
COULD BE CUT IF SLOWER/DRIER TREND CONTINUES. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
DONT LOOK TO RETURN UNTIL TUESDAY...ALLOWING PLENTY OF TIME FOR
FLOODING TO ABATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT EXPECT THOSE LOWER CIGS TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF BOTH KSBN AND KFWA. WINDS WILL VEER FROM
NW TO NNE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...BENTLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 011753
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
153 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF
OUR AREA DRY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
50S AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

MOTHER NATURE LOOKS TO HAVE FINALLY TURNED OFF THE FAUCET ON THE
AREA AS THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFTS WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNTIL IT FULLY SETTLES INTO THE
REGION...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MSTR AND A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
CAUSE CLOUD COVER ISSUES...FIRST IN THE FORM OF STRATUS...WHICH CAN
BE SEEN SLOWLY EXPANDING SOUTHWARD FROM LWR MI/LK MI/WI. HAVE KEPT
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR ALL AREAS...BUT BACKED OFF "AREAS" WORDING
FOR NOW. SOME MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AS TEMPS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CU/STRATOCU THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON INLAND EXTENT FOR THE TIME
BEING GIVEN SEVERAL HI RES MODELS SHOWING CLOUDS STICKING THROUGH
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON AMOUNT OF LEFT OVER MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER. KEPT WITH MIDDLE OF THE ROAD PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR AS DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN. LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

A MUCH WELCOMED SIGH OF RELIEF WHEN PERUSING THE 00Z NWP SUITE.
EARLIER NOTED DRYING TREND CONTINUES WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT
AND ASSOCIATED BELT OF ACTIVE WEATHER PUSHING JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO GIVE OUR CWA A BREATHER FROM WET WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND. MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL
DIG INTO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON
THURSDAY...TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY PER LATEST
GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVER ONTARIO WITH
SPLIT FLOW/WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NESTLED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
PATTERN ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP
THETA-E TROUGH IN PLACE LOCALLY WITH NO INSTABILITY BENEATH A
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED AROUND 800MB. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST EVERYWHERE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING WITH
JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS A PLEASANT MID TO UPPER 70S.
00Z GFS DOES TRY TO GLANCE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH QPF
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IS AN OUTLIER IN THIS RESPECT AND WILL BE IGNORED.

SPLIT FLOW THEN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
SLOWLY MODERATING BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. DID MAINTAIN SOME TOKEN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST MIDLEVEL VORT MAX MAY PASS JUST FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO DRAG SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA
WITH MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND WEAK CVA TOUCHING OFF A
FEW SHOWERS. HAVE SERIOUS DOUBTS PRECIP WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH
THOUGH GIVEN PRIMARILY DRY EASTERLY FLOW IN BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AS
WELL AS WEAK FORCING AND LOW INSTABILITY. EVEN IF IT DOES...SHOULD
BE LIGHT...SCATTERED...AND OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE TO FLOODING
CONCERNS. ANOTHER RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS WEEKEND AND HAVE REMOVED ALL POPS BASED ON CONSENSUS OF LATEST
GLOBAL GUIDANCE. EVEN MONDAY COULD BE DRY AS LATEST GFS AND GEM
(EVEN ECMWF TO A LESSER EXTENT) ARE ALL MUCH SLOWER WITH NEXT COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY BUT THESE TOO
COULD BE CUT IF SLOWER/DRIER TREND CONTINUES. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
DONT LOOK TO RETURN UNTIL TUESDAY...ALLOWING PLENTY OF TIME FOR
FLOODING TO ABATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT EXPECT THOSE LOWER CIGS TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF BOTH KSBN AND KFWA. WINDS WILL VEER FROM
NW TO NNE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...BENTLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




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