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000
FXUS63 KIWX 302329
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
729 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY WORK INTO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS RENEWED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS TRIGGERED WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED
EARLIER TODAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO LOWER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROF IN WISCONSIN. FLOW REGIME IS SUCH
THAT THE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN A STRETCHING DEFORMATION
AXIS. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SHOW THE SFC BASED FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS
AXIS...

LAPSE RATES AND WIND PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
LINES AND INDIVIDUAL LINE SEGMENTS. ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING DOES NOT PERSIST MUCH PAST 04Z.

LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN MORE ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE THERE IS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
BETWEEN THE MODELS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE AND WIND PROFILES ARE
VERY SIMILAR AND DO SUPPORT PERSISTENT/LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TAP AND A LONG FETCH OF
ISENTROPIC ASSENT...SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DECREASES AND THE TROF/DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER MORE ROBUST SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF LONG TERM IS ON PRECIP/SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY. TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION BUT STRONG PUSH OF HEIGHT FALLS AND CVA WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SURFACE CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
FURTHER AIDED BY GOOD RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. DEEP AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
EASILY ADVECT HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS BACK INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY.
AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH THE 2-3 KJ/KG RANGE AS
HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID...OR PERHAPS UPPER...80S WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. VERY DYNAMIC WAVE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL TO
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. LATEST 12Z NWP SUITE KEEPS SURFACE BOUNDARY
WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. ISO/SCT CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WEAK PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST NAM12 BUT EXPECT BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
BETTER WIND PROFILES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30+ KNOTS...WILL ALSO BE
TIED CLOSER TO THE FRONT. DESPITE MORE THAN ADEQUATE
SHEAR...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-7 C/KM ARE ONLY WEAKLY SUPPORTIVE
OF A NOCTURNAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY MONDAY NIGHT....PLENTY
FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LESS CLEAR.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS...AND POTENTIAL
ROTATION...WITH ANY SUBSTANTIVE UPDRAFTS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP BUT
LATE ARRIVAL OF FRONT MAY LIMIT CHANCES FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT. PUSHED BACK TIMING OF POPS BUT ALSO INCREASED THEM A
BIT BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS. COULD ALSO BE A THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY MORNING
IF SURFACE BOUNDARY IS SLOW ENOUGH TO EXIT THE CWA.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES NEXT
WEEKEND. SCT CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ONCE AGAIN BUT BEST CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TUES AND WED...HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO A PD OF MVFR/IFR CONDS LT
TONIGHT AS WK SFC TROUGH STALL ACRS THE AREA. FORCING ALG TRAILING
BNDRY ASSOCD/W PARENT SW SHIFTING EWD THROUGH NRN WI HAS SO FAR BEEN
GENERALLY POOR W/FRACTURED...POORLY DVLPD CONVECTIVE LINE EXTENDING
FM ERN IL NEWD THROUGH NW IN/SRN MI. DOUBT THIS WILL IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT AS NR TERM HIGHRES GUIDANCE WEAKENS VEERED LLJ AFT
MIDNIGHT AND W/NO REAL PUSH TO SFC BNDRY DOUBT CONVN MAKES IT OUT OF
NWRN ZONES. THUS WILL KEEP W/PRIOR TEMPO TSRA MENTION AT KSBN WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A BIT FURTHER. HWVR CONVN XPCD TO REMAIN NW
OF KFWA AND DROPPED PREV VCTS MENTION THERE. HIGH BNDRY LYR MSTR
REMAINS IN PLACE AND W/DECAYING SFC GRADIENT AND SOME CLRG OVERNIGHT
XPC SOME FOG TO DVLP.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...T


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 301940
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
340 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY WORK INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT BRINGS RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS TRIGGERED WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED
EARLIER TODAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO LOWER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROF IN WISCONSIN. FLOW REGIME IS SUCH
THAT THE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN A STRETCHING DEFORMATION
AXIS. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SHOW THE SFC BASED FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS
AXIS...

LAPSE RATES AND WIND PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
LINES AND INDIVIDUAL LINE SEGMENTS. ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING DOES NOT PERSIST MUCH PAST 04Z.

LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN MORE ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE THERE IS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
BETWEEN THE MODELS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE AND WIND PROFILES ARE
VERY SIMILAR AND DO SUPPORT PERSISTENT/LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TAP AND A LONG FETCH OF
ISENTROPIC ASSENT...SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DECREASES AND THE TROF/DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER MORE ROBUST SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF LONG TERM IS ON PRECIP/SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY. TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION BUT STRONG PUSH OF HEIGHT FALLS AND CVA WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SURFACE CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
FURTHER AIDED BY GOOD RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. DEEP AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
EASILY ADVECT HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS BACK INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY.
AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH THE 2-3 KJ/KG RANGE AS
HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID...OR PERHAPS UPPER...80S WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. VERY DYNAMIC WAVE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL TO
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. LATEST 12Z NWP SUITE KEEPS SURFACE BOUNDARY
WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. ISO/SCT CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WEAK PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST NAM12 BUT EXPECT BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
BETTER WIND PROFILES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30+ KNOTS...WILL ALSO BE
TIED CLOSER TO THE FRONT. DESPITE MORE THAN ADEQUATE
SHEAR...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-7 C/KM ARE ONLY WEAKLY SUPPORTIVE
OF A NOCTURNAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY MONDAY NIGHT....PLENTY
FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LESS CLEAR.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS...AND POTENTIAL
ROTATION...WITH ANY SUBSTANTIVE UPDRAFTS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP BUT
LATE ARRIVAL OF FRONT MAY LIMIT CHANCES FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT. PUSHED BACK TIMING OF POPS BUT ALSO INCREASED THEM A
BIT BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS. COULD ALSO BE A THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY MORNING
IF SURFACE BOUNDARY IS SLOW ENOUGH TO EXIT THE CWA.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES NEXT
WEEKEND. SCT CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ONCE AGAIN BUT BEST CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TUES AND WED...HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ABUMNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROF HAS
CROSSED THE IL/IN BORDER AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS TRIGGERING
ALONG THE CLEARING / DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY IN ILLINOIS.
GIVEN SURFACE BASED CAPES AND CLEARING THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

LAMINAR FLOW WILL KEEP CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP AFTER SUNSET AND
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY KSBN
AND NORTH.

LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING EXPECT TO SEE FOG FORM...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 301940
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
340 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY WORK INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE
A COLD FRONT BRINGS RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS TRIGGERED WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED
EARLIER TODAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO LOWER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROF IN WISCONSIN. FLOW REGIME IS SUCH
THAT THE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN A STRETCHING DEFORMATION
AXIS. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SHOW THE SFC BASED FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS
AXIS...

LAPSE RATES AND WIND PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
LINES AND INDIVIDUAL LINE SEGMENTS. ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING DOES NOT PERSIST MUCH PAST 04Z.

LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN MORE ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE THERE IS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
BETWEEN THE MODELS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE AND WIND PROFILES ARE
VERY SIMILAR AND DO SUPPORT PERSISTENT/LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TAP AND A LONG FETCH OF
ISENTROPIC ASSENT...SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DECREASES AND THE TROF/DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER MORE ROBUST SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF LONG TERM IS ON PRECIP/SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY. TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION BUT STRONG PUSH OF HEIGHT FALLS AND CVA WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SURFACE CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
FURTHER AIDED BY GOOD RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. DEEP AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
EASILY ADVECT HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS BACK INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY.
AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH THE 2-3 KJ/KG RANGE AS
HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID...OR PERHAPS UPPER...80S WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. VERY DYNAMIC WAVE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL TO
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. LATEST 12Z NWP SUITE KEEPS SURFACE BOUNDARY
WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. ISO/SCT CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WEAK PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST NAM12 BUT EXPECT BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
BETTER WIND PROFILES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30+ KNOTS...WILL ALSO BE
TIED CLOSER TO THE FRONT. DESPITE MORE THAN ADEQUATE
SHEAR...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-7 C/KM ARE ONLY WEAKLY SUPPORTIVE
OF A NOCTURNAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY MONDAY NIGHT....PLENTY
FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LESS CLEAR.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS...AND POTENTIAL
ROTATION...WITH ANY SUBSTANTIVE UPDRAFTS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP BUT
LATE ARRIVAL OF FRONT MAY LIMIT CHANCES FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT. PUSHED BACK TIMING OF POPS BUT ALSO INCREASED THEM A
BIT BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS. COULD ALSO BE A THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY MORNING
IF SURFACE BOUNDARY IS SLOW ENOUGH TO EXIT THE CWA.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES NEXT
WEEKEND. SCT CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ONCE AGAIN BUT BEST CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TUES AND WED...HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ABUMNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROF HAS
CROSSED THE IL/IN BORDER AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS TRIGGERING
ALONG THE CLEARING / DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY IN ILLINOIS.
GIVEN SURFACE BASED CAPES AND CLEARING THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

LAMINAR FLOW WILL KEEP CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP AFTER SUNSET AND
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY KSBN
AND NORTH.

LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING EXPECT TO SEE FOG FORM...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 301751
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
151 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 80S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY WORK
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS RENEWED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SVR/FLOODING THREAT
MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

AN UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION
WILL SHEAR ENE INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE
TROPOSPHERE (ASSOCIATED WITH 40-60 METER 5H HEIGHT FALL CENTROID
TRACK INTO WI/NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY) WILL LIKELY ALLOW WARM SECTOR
TO BECOME FULLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. DID
RETAIN LOW-MID CHANCES FOR ISO-SCT SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER MAINLY
WEST OF I-69 THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LVL
THETA-E ADVECTION WITHIN LLJ, LINGERING MUCAPE, AND NEWD TRACK OF A
SUBTLE WESTERN OH/MID MS VALLEY MID LVL IMPULSE ENE INTO THE AREA.

CLOUD COVER AND MEAGER MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT DEGREE
OF BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION A BIT WITHIN WARM SECTOR.
HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND EXPECTED BREAKS IN OVERCAST
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE QUALITY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT WITH EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SHOWING PLUME OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE (13-14 G/KG WITHIN 925-850MB LAYER) ADVECTING THIS
WAY FROM THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEYS. LOW/MID LVL FORCING NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH NORTHERLY TRACK OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE SENDING A
WEAKENING CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO OUR NW ZONES MID AFTN-EARLY EVE.
THIS FEATURE AND ADDITIONAL VORT ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH BASE OF
TROUGH...COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...WILL LIKELY STILL BE ENOUGH
TO HELP FOCUS SCT SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS TIME. AN ISOLATED
STRONG-SEVERE STORM (DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARY THREAT) APPEARS POSSIBLE
MAINLY WNW OF I-69 LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL DRYING
AND MODEST/UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES TO 30-35
KTS...WITH PALTRY MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND QUESTIONS REGARDING
CLOUD COVER THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
EVENT.

PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY SETTLE SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT
UNDER PREVAILING/WEAKENING WSW FLOW ALOFT. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT,
SKINNY/DWINDLING CAPE, SMALL MBE VECTORS, AND WARM CLOUD LAYER TO 12
KFT ALL HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
OTHERWISE...WARM/HUMID THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FEW CHANGES IN EARLY PART OF LONG TERM FOCUS. ANTICIPATE WELL
SCOURED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH OVERTURNED AIRMASS INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS CWA ALONG WITH INTERLUDE OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF
ENERGY /CURRENTLY ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY/ LIFTING NEWD INTO QUEBEC.
GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE INTERMODEL AGREEMENT AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME...TSRA CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING APPEAR ON
THE INCREASE. DEEP WEST COASTAL WAVE TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO 45-50KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE. SUSPECT STRONG AIRMASS
RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THERMAL RIDGE AXIS POISED FROM CENTRAL IL INTO
MICHIGAN THUMB...CULMINATING WITH PEAK SBCAPES IN 2500-3000 J/KG PER
NAM/WRFARW MODIFIED POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA IN 21-24
UTC TIMEFRAME. SUSPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE MAINTENANCE WITH FAVORABLE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND SUFFICIENT DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY WELL
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO EASTERN CWA. POTENTIAL
ORGANIZATION/COLD POOL CONGEAL WITH PRIMARY WIND RISK
ASSOCIATED...WITH SECONDARY/LESSER HAIL THREAT OWING TO WARM WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS. CONTINUED CHC TSRA /HIGHEST S/ WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POTENTIALLY LYING OUT E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN CWA TO I70 CORRIDOR. WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL WAVE THAT SHOULD SLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARYS S/SEWD
PROGRESS...ESPECIALLY PER ECMWF VS GFS. AMID LACKLUSTER GEFS AVG
POPS VS CLIMO AND GRADUAL MID WEEK RISING HEIGHTS FAVOR TO ESCHEW
DRY PERIOD VS CONSENSUS UPWARD POP CREEP...TUE NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...UNTIL NEXT/MORE SUBSTANTIVE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH UPPER MS
VLY/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO TAKE SOUTHEAST SAG THROUGH CWA TO NEAR OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ABOUT NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ABUMNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROF HAS
CROSSED THE IL/IN BORDER AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS TRIGGERING
ALONG THE CLEARING / DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY IN ILLINOIS.
GIVEN SURFACE BASED CAPES AND CLEARING THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

LAMINAR FLOW WILL KEEP CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP AFTER SUNSET AND
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY KSBN
AND NORTH.

LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING EXPECT TO SEE FOG FORM...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 301751
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
151 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 80S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY WORK
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS RENEWED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SVR/FLOODING THREAT
MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

AN UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION
WILL SHEAR ENE INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE
TROPOSPHERE (ASSOCIATED WITH 40-60 METER 5H HEIGHT FALL CENTROID
TRACK INTO WI/NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY) WILL LIKELY ALLOW WARM SECTOR
TO BECOME FULLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. DID
RETAIN LOW-MID CHANCES FOR ISO-SCT SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER MAINLY
WEST OF I-69 THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LVL
THETA-E ADVECTION WITHIN LLJ, LINGERING MUCAPE, AND NEWD TRACK OF A
SUBTLE WESTERN OH/MID MS VALLEY MID LVL IMPULSE ENE INTO THE AREA.

CLOUD COVER AND MEAGER MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT DEGREE
OF BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION A BIT WITHIN WARM SECTOR.
HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND EXPECTED BREAKS IN OVERCAST
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE QUALITY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT WITH EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SHOWING PLUME OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE (13-14 G/KG WITHIN 925-850MB LAYER) ADVECTING THIS
WAY FROM THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEYS. LOW/MID LVL FORCING NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH NORTHERLY TRACK OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE SENDING A
WEAKENING CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO OUR NW ZONES MID AFTN-EARLY EVE.
THIS FEATURE AND ADDITIONAL VORT ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH BASE OF
TROUGH...COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...WILL LIKELY STILL BE ENOUGH
TO HELP FOCUS SCT SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS TIME. AN ISOLATED
STRONG-SEVERE STORM (DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARY THREAT) APPEARS POSSIBLE
MAINLY WNW OF I-69 LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL DRYING
AND MODEST/UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES TO 30-35
KTS...WITH PALTRY MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND QUESTIONS REGARDING
CLOUD COVER THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
EVENT.

PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY SETTLE SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT
UNDER PREVAILING/WEAKENING WSW FLOW ALOFT. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT,
SKINNY/DWINDLING CAPE, SMALL MBE VECTORS, AND WARM CLOUD LAYER TO 12
KFT ALL HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
OTHERWISE...WARM/HUMID THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FEW CHANGES IN EARLY PART OF LONG TERM FOCUS. ANTICIPATE WELL
SCOURED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH OVERTURNED AIRMASS INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS CWA ALONG WITH INTERLUDE OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF
ENERGY /CURRENTLY ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY/ LIFTING NEWD INTO QUEBEC.
GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE INTERMODEL AGREEMENT AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME...TSRA CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING APPEAR ON
THE INCREASE. DEEP WEST COASTAL WAVE TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO 45-50KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE. SUSPECT STRONG AIRMASS
RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THERMAL RIDGE AXIS POISED FROM CENTRAL IL INTO
MICHIGAN THUMB...CULMINATING WITH PEAK SBCAPES IN 2500-3000 J/KG PER
NAM/WRFARW MODIFIED POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA IN 21-24
UTC TIMEFRAME. SUSPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE MAINTENANCE WITH FAVORABLE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND SUFFICIENT DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY WELL
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO EASTERN CWA. POTENTIAL
ORGANIZATION/COLD POOL CONGEAL WITH PRIMARY WIND RISK
ASSOCIATED...WITH SECONDARY/LESSER HAIL THREAT OWING TO WARM WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS. CONTINUED CHC TSRA /HIGHEST S/ WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POTENTIALLY LYING OUT E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN CWA TO I70 CORRIDOR. WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL WAVE THAT SHOULD SLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARYS S/SEWD
PROGRESS...ESPECIALLY PER ECMWF VS GFS. AMID LACKLUSTER GEFS AVG
POPS VS CLIMO AND GRADUAL MID WEEK RISING HEIGHTS FAVOR TO ESCHEW
DRY PERIOD VS CONSENSUS UPWARD POP CREEP...TUE NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...UNTIL NEXT/MORE SUBSTANTIVE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH UPPER MS
VLY/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO TAKE SOUTHEAST SAG THROUGH CWA TO NEAR OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ABOUT NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ABUMNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROF HAS
CROSSED THE IL/IN BORDER AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS TRIGGERING
ALONG THE CLEARING / DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY IN ILLINOIS.
GIVEN SURFACE BASED CAPES AND CLEARING THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

LAMINAR FLOW WILL KEEP CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP AFTER SUNSET AND
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY KSBN
AND NORTH.

LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING EXPECT TO SEE FOG FORM...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 300941
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
541 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 80S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY WORK
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS RENEWED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SVR/FLOODING THREAT
MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

AN UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION
WILL SHEAR ENE INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE
TROPOSPHERE (ASSOCIATED WITH 40-60 METER 5H HEIGHT FALL CENTROID
TRACK INTO WI/NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY) WILL LIKELY ALLOW WARM SECTOR
TO BECOME FULLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. DID
RETAIN LOW-MID CHANCES FOR ISO-SCT SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER MAINLY
WEST OF I-69 THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LVL
THETA-E ADVECTION WITHIN LLJ, LINGERING MUCAPE, AND NEWD TRACK OF A
SUBTLE WESTERN OH/MID MS VALLEY MID LVL IMPULSE ENE INTO THE AREA.

CLOUD COVER AND MEAGER MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT DEGREE
OF BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION A BIT WITHIN WARM SECTOR.
HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND EXPECTED BREAKS IN OVERCAST
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE QUALITY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT WITH EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SHOWING PLUME OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE (13-14 G/KG WITHIN 925-850MB LAYER) ADVECTING THIS
WAY FROM THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEYS. LOW/MID LVL FORCING NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH NORTHERLY TRACK OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE SENDING A
WEAKENING CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO OUR NW ZONES MID AFTN-EARLY EVE.
THIS FEATURE AND ADDITIONAL VORT ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH BASE OF
TROUGH...COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...WILL LIKELY STILL BE ENOUGH
TO HELP FOCUS SCT SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS TIME. AN ISOLATED
STRONG-SEVERE STORM (DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARY THREAT) APPEARS POSSIBLE
MAINLY WNW OF I-69 LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL DRYING
AND MODEST/UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES TO 30-35
KTS...WITH PALTRY MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND QUESTIONS REGARDING
CLOUD COVER THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
EVENT.

PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY SETTLE SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT
UNDER PREVAILING/WEAKENING WSW FLOW ALOFT. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT,
SKINNY/DWINDLING CAPE, SMALL MBE VECTORS, AND WARM CLOUD LAYER TO 12
KFT ALL HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
OTHERWISE...WARM/HUMID THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FEW CHANGES IN EARLY PART OF LONG TERM FOCUS. ANTICIPATE WELL
SCOURED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH OVERTURNED AIRMASS INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS CWA ALONG WITH INTERLUDE OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF
ENERGY /CURRENTLY ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY/ LIFTING NEWD INTO QUEBEC.
GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE INTERMODEL AGREEMENT AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME...TSRA CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING APPEAR ON
THE INCREASE. DEEP WEST COASTAL WAVE TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO 45-50KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE. SUSPECT STRONG AIRMASS
RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THERMAL RIDGE AXIS POISED FROM CENTRAL IL INTO
MICHIGAN THUMB...CULMINATING WITH PEAK SBCAPES IN 2500-3000 J/KG PER
NAM/WRFARW MODIFIED POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA IN 21-24
UTC TIMEFRAME. SUSPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE MAINTENANCE WITH FAVORABLE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND SUFFICIENT DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY WELL
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO EASTERN CWA. POTENTIAL
ORGANIZATION/COLD POOL CONGEAL WITH PRIMARY WIND RISK
ASSOCIATED...WITH SECONDARY/LESSER HAIL THREAT OWING TO WARM WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS. CONTINUED CHC TSRA /HIGHEST S/ WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POTENTIALLY LYING OUT E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN CWA TO I70 CORRIDOR. WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL WAVE THAT SHOULD SLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARYS S/SEWD
PROGRESS...ESPECIALLY PER ECMWF VS GFS. AMID LACKLUSTER GEFS AVG
POPS VS CLIMO AND GRADUAL MID WEEK RISING HEIGHTS FAVOR TO ESCHEW
DRY PERIOD VS CONSENSUS UPWARD POP CREEP...TUE NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...UNTIL NEXT/MORE SUBSTANTIVE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH UPPER MS
VLY/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO TAKE SOUTHEAST SAG THROUGH CWA TO NEAR OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ABOUT NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAINLY VFR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCT
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND
APPROACH OF A SUBTLE MID MS/OH VALLEY WAVE MAY WORK ENE THROUGH
NORTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCES
11-15Z AT KSBN AND 14-18Z AT FWA. THIS HIGH BASED ACTIVITY SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS/UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE
NRN LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. A LINE OF BROKEN CONVECTION SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE
AND EDGE ESE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TO NEAR 15 KTS TODAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 300941
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
541 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 80S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY WORK
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS RENEWED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SVR/FLOODING THREAT
MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

AN UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION
WILL SHEAR ENE INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE
TROPOSPHERE (ASSOCIATED WITH 40-60 METER 5H HEIGHT FALL CENTROID
TRACK INTO WI/NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY) WILL LIKELY ALLOW WARM SECTOR
TO BECOME FULLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. DID
RETAIN LOW-MID CHANCES FOR ISO-SCT SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER MAINLY
WEST OF I-69 THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LVL
THETA-E ADVECTION WITHIN LLJ, LINGERING MUCAPE, AND NEWD TRACK OF A
SUBTLE WESTERN OH/MID MS VALLEY MID LVL IMPULSE ENE INTO THE AREA.

CLOUD COVER AND MEAGER MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT DEGREE
OF BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION A BIT WITHIN WARM SECTOR.
HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND EXPECTED BREAKS IN OVERCAST
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE QUALITY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT WITH EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SHOWING PLUME OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE (13-14 G/KG WITHIN 925-850MB LAYER) ADVECTING THIS
WAY FROM THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEYS. LOW/MID LVL FORCING NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH NORTHERLY TRACK OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE SENDING A
WEAKENING CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO OUR NW ZONES MID AFTN-EARLY EVE.
THIS FEATURE AND ADDITIONAL VORT ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH BASE OF
TROUGH...COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...WILL LIKELY STILL BE ENOUGH
TO HELP FOCUS SCT SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS TIME. AN ISOLATED
STRONG-SEVERE STORM (DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARY THREAT) APPEARS POSSIBLE
MAINLY WNW OF I-69 LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL DRYING
AND MODEST/UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES TO 30-35
KTS...WITH PALTRY MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND QUESTIONS REGARDING
CLOUD COVER THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
EVENT.

PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY SETTLE SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT
UNDER PREVAILING/WEAKENING WSW FLOW ALOFT. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT,
SKINNY/DWINDLING CAPE, SMALL MBE VECTORS, AND WARM CLOUD LAYER TO 12
KFT ALL HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
OTHERWISE...WARM/HUMID THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FEW CHANGES IN EARLY PART OF LONG TERM FOCUS. ANTICIPATE WELL
SCOURED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH OVERTURNED AIRMASS INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS CWA ALONG WITH INTERLUDE OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF
ENERGY /CURRENTLY ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY/ LIFTING NEWD INTO QUEBEC.
GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE INTERMODEL AGREEMENT AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME...TSRA CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING APPEAR ON
THE INCREASE. DEEP WEST COASTAL WAVE TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO 45-50KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE. SUSPECT STRONG AIRMASS
RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THERMAL RIDGE AXIS POISED FROM CENTRAL IL INTO
MICHIGAN THUMB...CULMINATING WITH PEAK SBCAPES IN 2500-3000 J/KG PER
NAM/WRFARW MODIFIED POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA IN 21-24
UTC TIMEFRAME. SUSPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE MAINTENANCE WITH FAVORABLE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND SUFFICIENT DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY WELL
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO EASTERN CWA. POTENTIAL
ORGANIZATION/COLD POOL CONGEAL WITH PRIMARY WIND RISK
ASSOCIATED...WITH SECONDARY/LESSER HAIL THREAT OWING TO WARM WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS. CONTINUED CHC TSRA /HIGHEST S/ WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POTENTIALLY LYING OUT E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN CWA TO I70 CORRIDOR. WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL WAVE THAT SHOULD SLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARYS S/SEWD
PROGRESS...ESPECIALLY PER ECMWF VS GFS. AMID LACKLUSTER GEFS AVG
POPS VS CLIMO AND GRADUAL MID WEEK RISING HEIGHTS FAVOR TO ESCHEW
DRY PERIOD VS CONSENSUS UPWARD POP CREEP...TUE NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...UNTIL NEXT/MORE SUBSTANTIVE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH UPPER MS
VLY/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO TAKE SOUTHEAST SAG THROUGH CWA TO NEAR OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ABOUT NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAINLY VFR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCT
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND
APPROACH OF A SUBTLE MID MS/OH VALLEY WAVE MAY WORK ENE THROUGH
NORTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCES
11-15Z AT KSBN AND 14-18Z AT FWA. THIS HIGH BASED ACTIVITY SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS/UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE
NRN LAKES WILL OVERSPREAD AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. A LINE OF BROKEN CONVECTION SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE
AND EDGE ESE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TO NEAR 15 KTS TODAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 300838
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
438 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 80S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY WORK
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS RENEWED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SVR/FLOODING THREAT
MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

AN UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION
WILL SHEAR ENE INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE
TROPOSPHERE (ASSOCIATED WITH 40-60 METER 5H HEIGHT FALL CENTROID
TRACK INTO WI/NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY) WILL LIKELY ALLOW WARM SECTOR
TO BECOME FULLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. DID
RETAIN LOW-MID CHANCES FOR ISO-SCT SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER MAINLY
WEST OF I-69 THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LVL
THETA-E ADVECTION WITHIN LLJ, LINGERING MUCAPE, AND NEWD TRACK OF A
SUBTLE WESTERN OH/MID MS VALLEY MID LVL IMPULSE ENE INTO THE AREA.

CLOUD COVER AND MEAGER MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT DEGREE
OF BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION A BIT WITHIN WARM SECTOR.
HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND EXPECTED BREAKS IN OVERCAST
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE QUALITY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT WITH EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SHOWING PLUME OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE (13-14 G/KG WITHIN 925-850MB LAYER) ADVECTING THIS
WAY FROM THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEYS. LOW/MID LVL FORCING NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH NORTHERLY TRACK OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE SENDING A
WEAKENING CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO OUR NW ZONES MID AFTN-EARLY EVE.
THIS FEATURE AND ADDITIONAL VORT ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH BASE OF
TROUGH...COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...WILL LIKELY STILL BE ENOUGH
TO HELP FOCUS SCT SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS TIME. AN ISOLATED
STRONG-SEVERE STORM (DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARY THREAT) APPEARS POSSIBLE
MAINLY WNW OF I-69 LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL DRYING
AND MODEST/UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES TO 30-35
KTS...WITH PALTRY MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND QUESTIONS REGARDING
CLOUD COVER THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
EVENT.

PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY SETTLE SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT
UNDER PREVAILING/WEAKENING WSW FLOW ALOFT. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT,
SKINNY/DWINDLING CAPE, SMALL MBE VECTORS, AND WARM CLOUD LAYER TO 12
KFT ALL HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
OTHERWISE...WARM/HUMID THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FEW CHANGES IN EARLY PART OF LONG TERM FOCUS. ANTICIPATE WELL
SCOURED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH OVERTURNED AIRMASS INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS CWA ALONG WITH INTERLUDE OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF
ENERGY /CURRENTLY ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY/ LIFTING NEWD INTO QUEBEC.
GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE INTERMODEL AGREEMENT AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME...TSRA CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING APPEAR ON
THE INCREASE. DEEP WEST COASTAL WAVE TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO 45-50KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE. SUSPECT STRONG AIRMASS
RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THERMAL RIDGE AXIS POISED FROM CENTRAL IL INTO
MICHIGAN THUMB...CULMINATING WITH PEAK SBCAPES IN 2500-3000 J/KG PER
NAM/WRFARW MODIFIED POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA IN 21-24
UTC TIMEFRAME. SUSPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE MAINTENANCE WITH FAVORABLE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND SUFFICIENT DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY WELL
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO EASTERN CWA. POTENTIAL
ORGANIZATION/COLD POOL CONGEAL WITH PRIMARY WIND RISK
ASSOCIATED...WITH SECONDARY/LESSER HAIL THREAT OWING TO WARM WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS. CONTINUED CHC TSRA /HIGHEST S/ WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POTENTIALLY LYING OUT E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN CWA TO I70 CORRIDOR. WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL WAVE THAT SHOULD SLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARYS S/SEWD
PROGRESS...ESPECIALLY PER ECMWF VS GFS. AMID LACKLUSTER GEFS AVG
POPS VS CLIMO AND GRADUAL MID WEEK RISING HEIGHTS FAVOR TO ESCHEW
DRY PERIOD VS CONSENSUS UPWARD POP CREEP...TUE NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...UNTIL NEXT/MORE SUBSTANTIVE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH UPPER MS
VLY/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO TAKE SOUTHEAST SAG THROUGH CWA TO NEAR OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ABOUT NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAINLY DRY/VFR THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT MIXES NORTH OF THE
AREA. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION. CHANCES FOR SCT
CONVECTION INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 300838
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
438 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 80S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY WORK
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS RENEWED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SVR/FLOODING THREAT
MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

AN UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION
WILL SHEAR ENE INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE
TROPOSPHERE (ASSOCIATED WITH 40-60 METER 5H HEIGHT FALL CENTROID
TRACK INTO WI/NORTHERN LOWER MI TODAY) WILL LIKELY ALLOW WARM SECTOR
TO BECOME FULLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. DID
RETAIN LOW-MID CHANCES FOR ISO-SCT SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER MAINLY
WEST OF I-69 THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LVL
THETA-E ADVECTION WITHIN LLJ, LINGERING MUCAPE, AND NEWD TRACK OF A
SUBTLE WESTERN OH/MID MS VALLEY MID LVL IMPULSE ENE INTO THE AREA.

CLOUD COVER AND MEAGER MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT DEGREE
OF BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION A BIT WITHIN WARM SECTOR.
HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND EXPECTED BREAKS IN OVERCAST
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE QUALITY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT WITH EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SHOWING PLUME OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE (13-14 G/KG WITHIN 925-850MB LAYER) ADVECTING THIS
WAY FROM THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEYS. LOW/MID LVL FORCING NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH NORTHERLY TRACK OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE SENDING A
WEAKENING CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO OUR NW ZONES MID AFTN-EARLY EVE.
THIS FEATURE AND ADDITIONAL VORT ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH BASE OF
TROUGH...COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...WILL LIKELY STILL BE ENOUGH
TO HELP FOCUS SCT SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS TIME. AN ISOLATED
STRONG-SEVERE STORM (DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARY THREAT) APPEARS POSSIBLE
MAINLY WNW OF I-69 LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN SOME MID LEVEL DRYING
AND MODEST/UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES TO 30-35
KTS...WITH PALTRY MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND QUESTIONS REGARDING
CLOUD COVER THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
EVENT.

PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY SETTLE SE INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT
UNDER PREVAILING/WEAKENING WSW FLOW ALOFT. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT,
SKINNY/DWINDLING CAPE, SMALL MBE VECTORS, AND WARM CLOUD LAYER TO 12
KFT ALL HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
OTHERWISE...WARM/HUMID THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FEW CHANGES IN EARLY PART OF LONG TERM FOCUS. ANTICIPATE WELL
SCOURED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH OVERTURNED AIRMASS INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS CWA ALONG WITH INTERLUDE OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF
ENERGY /CURRENTLY ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY/ LIFTING NEWD INTO QUEBEC.
GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE INTERMODEL AGREEMENT AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME...TSRA CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING APPEAR ON
THE INCREASE. DEEP WEST COASTAL WAVE TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TO 45-50KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE. SUSPECT STRONG AIRMASS
RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THERMAL RIDGE AXIS POISED FROM CENTRAL IL INTO
MICHIGAN THUMB...CULMINATING WITH PEAK SBCAPES IN 2500-3000 J/KG PER
NAM/WRFARW MODIFIED POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA IN 21-24
UTC TIMEFRAME. SUSPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE MAINTENANCE WITH FAVORABLE
UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND SUFFICIENT DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY WELL
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO EASTERN CWA. POTENTIAL
ORGANIZATION/COLD POOL CONGEAL WITH PRIMARY WIND RISK
ASSOCIATED...WITH SECONDARY/LESSER HAIL THREAT OWING TO WARM WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS. CONTINUED CHC TSRA /HIGHEST S/ WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POTENTIALLY LYING OUT E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN CWA TO I70 CORRIDOR. WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL WAVE THAT SHOULD SLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARYS S/SEWD
PROGRESS...ESPECIALLY PER ECMWF VS GFS. AMID LACKLUSTER GEFS AVG
POPS VS CLIMO AND GRADUAL MID WEEK RISING HEIGHTS FAVOR TO ESCHEW
DRY PERIOD VS CONSENSUS UPWARD POP CREEP...TUE NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...UNTIL NEXT/MORE SUBSTANTIVE WAVE TRACKS THROUGH UPPER MS
VLY/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO TAKE SOUTHEAST SAG THROUGH CWA TO NEAR OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ABOUT NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAINLY DRY/VFR THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT MIXES NORTH OF THE
AREA. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION. CHANCES FOR SCT
CONVECTION INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 300507
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
107 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 80S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY WORK
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS RENEWED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WMFNT MAKING QUICK PROGRESS NWD THIS AFTN IN ASSOCN/W SW TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE PLAINS. BROAD BELT OF
LL MSTR FLUX TIED TO LLJ WITHIN THETA-E RIDGE LEADING TO AN
EXPANDING AREA OF SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA ACRS WRN ZONES EXTENDING SWWD
INTO ERN IL/WRN IN AND XPC THIS WILL CONT TO GRAVITATE N/NEWD
THROUGH THIS AFTN. SERN HALF THOUGH XPCD TO REMAIN DRY GIVEN
INFLUENCE OF WRN PERIPHERY OF RETREATING CONTINENTAL RIDGE AND POOR
EWD MSTR FLUX BOUND.

OTRWS W/WMFNT LIFTING THROUGH THIS EVENING DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN
APPRECIABLE FOCUS SANS FAR NW ZONES FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A
THRESHOLD LWR BOUND SLGT CHC POP MENTION. ON SAT WARM SECTOR IS
FULLY ENTRENCHED ACRS CWA ALG W/A VRY MOIST AIRMASS. DIURNAL HEATING
SHLD FOSTER SIG INSTABILITY BY AFTN AND W/SRN EDGE OF HGT FALLS IN
ASSOCN/W EJECTING PLAINS SW AND APCHG SFC FNTL ZONE WILL KEEP
W/PRIOR LIKELY POPS ALTHOUGH DID ADD SOME TEMPORAL DETAIL TO SAT
MORNING. SOME LOW RISK FOR SEVERE (DAMAGING WINDS) PER MODEST 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR NR 30-35KTS WHICH COMBINED W/PWATS NR 2 INCHES SUGGESTIVE
OF LOCAL MASS LOADING AND A PULSE SVR THREAT. MUCH WARMER W/LOW TO
MID 80S W-E ACRS CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN LONG TERM REMAINS ON TIMING OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. UPPER TROF AND ASSOC SFC
BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED BY SEVERAL
PREVIOUS SHIFTS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A THREAT AS
IMPRESSIVE GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES INTO THE AREA (PWATS IN
THE 1.7 TO 2 INCH RANGE WHICH IS NEAR 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR). SYSTEM WILL EXIT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH PRECIP
TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE. LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS IN AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING AND SUSPECT MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...ESP IN NW SO HAVE
CUT POPS FURTHER ESP DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. BRIEF DRY PERIOD
LIKELY INTO THE START OF LABOR DAY AS FORCING DIMINISHES AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE EAST FROM N PLAINS/S CANADA
AND SWING A COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LATEST NAM12 HAS SPED UP TIMING A FEW HOURS FROM
PREVIOUS RUN WITH FRONT MOVING THRU IN THE 21Z TIMEFRAME DURING PEAK
HEATING WITH MID LEVEL JET RAMPING UP. 12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF REMAIN
SLOWER WITH FROPA IN THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. SVR THREAT REMAINS
CONDITIONAL AND WILL HINGE ON TIMING OF FROPA WHICH CAN BE FURTHER
NAILED DOWN AS LABOR DAY APPROACHES. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MEAGER
WITH MARGINAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS BUT IF DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
A FEW STRONGER STORMS. AGAIN HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE BIGGEST THREAT
AS BOUNTIFUL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES IN WARM SECTOR. PRECIP
WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS FRONT DEPARTS AND STALLS
E-W INVOF OH VALLEY. MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN DETAILS AND PLACEMENT OF
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG BOUNDARY IN ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THRU END OF PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT WITH GOING DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDS THRU THURS AFTERNOON UNTIL DETAILS ARE BETTER RESOLVED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE RAMPING UP BY END OF THE WEEK WITH MORE MUGGY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 80S THRU WEDS WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLE BY END OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAINLY DRY/VFR THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT MIXES NORTH OF THE
AREA. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION. CHANCES FOR SCT
CONVECTION INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...CEO
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 300507
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
107 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TODAY WILL FEATURE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING THE 80S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY WORK
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS RENEWED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WMFNT MAKING QUICK PROGRESS NWD THIS AFTN IN ASSOCN/W SW TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE PLAINS. BROAD BELT OF
LL MSTR FLUX TIED TO LLJ WITHIN THETA-E RIDGE LEADING TO AN
EXPANDING AREA OF SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA ACRS WRN ZONES EXTENDING SWWD
INTO ERN IL/WRN IN AND XPC THIS WILL CONT TO GRAVITATE N/NEWD
THROUGH THIS AFTN. SERN HALF THOUGH XPCD TO REMAIN DRY GIVEN
INFLUENCE OF WRN PERIPHERY OF RETREATING CONTINENTAL RIDGE AND POOR
EWD MSTR FLUX BOUND.

OTRWS W/WMFNT LIFTING THROUGH THIS EVENING DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN
APPRECIABLE FOCUS SANS FAR NW ZONES FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A
THRESHOLD LWR BOUND SLGT CHC POP MENTION. ON SAT WARM SECTOR IS
FULLY ENTRENCHED ACRS CWA ALG W/A VRY MOIST AIRMASS. DIURNAL HEATING
SHLD FOSTER SIG INSTABILITY BY AFTN AND W/SRN EDGE OF HGT FALLS IN
ASSOCN/W EJECTING PLAINS SW AND APCHG SFC FNTL ZONE WILL KEEP
W/PRIOR LIKELY POPS ALTHOUGH DID ADD SOME TEMPORAL DETAIL TO SAT
MORNING. SOME LOW RISK FOR SEVERE (DAMAGING WINDS) PER MODEST 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR NR 30-35KTS WHICH COMBINED W/PWATS NR 2 INCHES SUGGESTIVE
OF LOCAL MASS LOADING AND A PULSE SVR THREAT. MUCH WARMER W/LOW TO
MID 80S W-E ACRS CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN LONG TERM REMAINS ON TIMING OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. UPPER TROF AND ASSOC SFC
BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED BY SEVERAL
PREVIOUS SHIFTS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A THREAT AS
IMPRESSIVE GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES INTO THE AREA (PWATS IN
THE 1.7 TO 2 INCH RANGE WHICH IS NEAR 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR). SYSTEM WILL EXIT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH PRECIP
TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE. LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS IN AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING AND SUSPECT MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...ESP IN NW SO HAVE
CUT POPS FURTHER ESP DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. BRIEF DRY PERIOD
LIKELY INTO THE START OF LABOR DAY AS FORCING DIMINISHES AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE EAST FROM N PLAINS/S CANADA
AND SWING A COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LATEST NAM12 HAS SPED UP TIMING A FEW HOURS FROM
PREVIOUS RUN WITH FRONT MOVING THRU IN THE 21Z TIMEFRAME DURING PEAK
HEATING WITH MID LEVEL JET RAMPING UP. 12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF REMAIN
SLOWER WITH FROPA IN THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. SVR THREAT REMAINS
CONDITIONAL AND WILL HINGE ON TIMING OF FROPA WHICH CAN BE FURTHER
NAILED DOWN AS LABOR DAY APPROACHES. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MEAGER
WITH MARGINAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS BUT IF DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
A FEW STRONGER STORMS. AGAIN HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE BIGGEST THREAT
AS BOUNTIFUL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES IN WARM SECTOR. PRECIP
WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS FRONT DEPARTS AND STALLS
E-W INVOF OH VALLEY. MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN DETAILS AND PLACEMENT OF
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG BOUNDARY IN ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THRU END OF PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT WITH GOING DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDS THRU THURS AFTERNOON UNTIL DETAILS ARE BETTER RESOLVED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE RAMPING UP BY END OF THE WEEK WITH MORE MUGGY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 80S THRU WEDS WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLE BY END OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAINLY DRY/VFR THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT MIXES NORTH OF THE
AREA. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION. CHANCES FOR SCT
CONVECTION INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...CEO
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 292339
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
739 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 60S.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WMFNT MAKING QUICK PROGRESS NWD THIS AFTN IN ASSOCN/W SW TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE PLAINS. BROAD BELT OF
LL MSTR FLUX TIED TO LLJ WITHIN THETA-E RIDGE LEADING TO AN
EXPANDING AREA OF SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA ACRS WRN ZONES EXTENDING SWWD
INTO ERN IL/WRN IN AND XPC THIS WILL CONT TO GRAVITATE N/NEWD
THROUGH THIS AFTN. SERN HALF THOUGH XPCD TO REMAIN DRY GIVEN
INFLUENCE OF WRN PERIPHERY OF RETREATING CONTINENTAL RIDGE AND POOR
EWD MSTR FLUX BOUND.

OTRWS W/WMFNT LIFTING THROUGH THIS EVENING DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN
APPRECIABLE FOCUS SANS FAR NW ZONES FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A
THRESHOLD LWR BOUND SLGT CHC POP MENTION. ON SAT WARM SECTOR IS
FULLY ENTRENCHED ACRS CWA ALG W/A VRY MOIST AIRMASS. DIURNAL HEATING
SHLD FOSTER SIG INSTABILITY BY AFTN AND W/SRN EDGE OF HGT FALLS IN
ASSOCN/W EJECTING PLAINS SW AND APCHG SFC FNTL ZONE WILL KEEP
W/PRIOR LIKELY POPS ALTHOUGH DID ADD SOME TEMPORAL DETAIL TO SAT
MORNING. SOME LOW RISK FOR SEVERE (DAMAGING WINDS) PER MODEST 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR NR 30-35KTS WHICH COMBINED W/PWATS NR 2 INCHES SUGGESTIVE
OF LOCAL MASS LOADING AND A PULSE SVR THREAT. MUCH WARMER W/LOW TO
MID 80S W-E ACRS CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN LONG TERM REMAINS ON TIMING OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. UPPER TROF AND ASSOC SFC
BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED BY SEVERAL
PREVIOUS SHIFTS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A THREAT AS
IMPRESSIVE GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES INTO THE AREA (PWATS IN
THE 1.7 TO 2 INCH RANGE WHICH IS NEAR 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR). SYSTEM WILL EXIT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH PRECIP
TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE. LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS IN AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING AND SUSPECT MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...ESP IN NW SO HAVE
CUT POPS FURTHER ESP DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. BRIEF DRY PERIOD
LIKELY INTO THE START OF LABOR DAY AS FORCING DIMINISHES AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE EAST FROM N PLAINS/S CANADA
AND SWING A COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LATEST NAM12 HAS SPED UP TIMING A FEW HOURS FROM
PREVIOUS RUN WITH FRONT MOVING THRU IN THE 21Z TIMEFRAME DURING PEAK
HEATING WITH MID LEVEL JET RAMPING UP. 12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF REMAIN
SLOWER WITH FROPA IN THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. SVR THREAT REMAINS
CONDITIONAL AND WILL HINGE ON TIMING OF FROPA WHICH CAN BE FURTHER
NAILED DOWN AS LABOR DAY APPROACHES. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MEAGER
WITH MARGINAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS BUT IF DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
A FEW STRONGER STORMS. AGAIN HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE BIGGEST THREAT
AS BOUNTIFUL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES IN WARM SECTOR. PRECIP
WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS FRONT DEPARTS AND STALLS
E-W INVOF OH VALLEY. MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN DETAILS AND PLACEMENT OF
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG BOUNDARY IN ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THRU END OF PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT WITH GOING DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDS THRU THURS AFTERNOON UNTIL DETAILS ARE BETTER RESOLVED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE RAMPING UP BY END OF THE WEEK WITH MORE MUGGY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 80S THRU WEDS WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLE BY END OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH WITH ASSOCIATED
LLJ/THETA-E SURGE GENERATING SCT CONVECTION OVER EXTREME WESTERN
INDIANA. SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS INDICATES AROUND 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
IN THIS AREA WITH MUCH LESS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AROUND KFWA.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS AROUND KSBN TONIGHT BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...THOUGH EXACT TIMING IS SUBJECT TO REVISION. SOME
CONCERN FOR LLWS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT CURRENT FORECAST
WIND PROFILES ARE TOO MARGINAL FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...CEO
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 292339
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
739 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 60S.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WMFNT MAKING QUICK PROGRESS NWD THIS AFTN IN ASSOCN/W SW TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE PLAINS. BROAD BELT OF
LL MSTR FLUX TIED TO LLJ WITHIN THETA-E RIDGE LEADING TO AN
EXPANDING AREA OF SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA ACRS WRN ZONES EXTENDING SWWD
INTO ERN IL/WRN IN AND XPC THIS WILL CONT TO GRAVITATE N/NEWD
THROUGH THIS AFTN. SERN HALF THOUGH XPCD TO REMAIN DRY GIVEN
INFLUENCE OF WRN PERIPHERY OF RETREATING CONTINENTAL RIDGE AND POOR
EWD MSTR FLUX BOUND.

OTRWS W/WMFNT LIFTING THROUGH THIS EVENING DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN
APPRECIABLE FOCUS SANS FAR NW ZONES FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A
THRESHOLD LWR BOUND SLGT CHC POP MENTION. ON SAT WARM SECTOR IS
FULLY ENTRENCHED ACRS CWA ALG W/A VRY MOIST AIRMASS. DIURNAL HEATING
SHLD FOSTER SIG INSTABILITY BY AFTN AND W/SRN EDGE OF HGT FALLS IN
ASSOCN/W EJECTING PLAINS SW AND APCHG SFC FNTL ZONE WILL KEEP
W/PRIOR LIKELY POPS ALTHOUGH DID ADD SOME TEMPORAL DETAIL TO SAT
MORNING. SOME LOW RISK FOR SEVERE (DAMAGING WINDS) PER MODEST 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR NR 30-35KTS WHICH COMBINED W/PWATS NR 2 INCHES SUGGESTIVE
OF LOCAL MASS LOADING AND A PULSE SVR THREAT. MUCH WARMER W/LOW TO
MID 80S W-E ACRS CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN LONG TERM REMAINS ON TIMING OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. UPPER TROF AND ASSOC SFC
BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED BY SEVERAL
PREVIOUS SHIFTS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A THREAT AS
IMPRESSIVE GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES INTO THE AREA (PWATS IN
THE 1.7 TO 2 INCH RANGE WHICH IS NEAR 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR). SYSTEM WILL EXIT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH PRECIP
TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE. LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS IN AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING AND SUSPECT MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...ESP IN NW SO HAVE
CUT POPS FURTHER ESP DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. BRIEF DRY PERIOD
LIKELY INTO THE START OF LABOR DAY AS FORCING DIMINISHES AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE EAST FROM N PLAINS/S CANADA
AND SWING A COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LATEST NAM12 HAS SPED UP TIMING A FEW HOURS FROM
PREVIOUS RUN WITH FRONT MOVING THRU IN THE 21Z TIMEFRAME DURING PEAK
HEATING WITH MID LEVEL JET RAMPING UP. 12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF REMAIN
SLOWER WITH FROPA IN THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. SVR THREAT REMAINS
CONDITIONAL AND WILL HINGE ON TIMING OF FROPA WHICH CAN BE FURTHER
NAILED DOWN AS LABOR DAY APPROACHES. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MEAGER
WITH MARGINAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS BUT IF DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
A FEW STRONGER STORMS. AGAIN HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE BIGGEST THREAT
AS BOUNTIFUL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES IN WARM SECTOR. PRECIP
WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS FRONT DEPARTS AND STALLS
E-W INVOF OH VALLEY. MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN DETAILS AND PLACEMENT OF
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG BOUNDARY IN ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THRU END OF PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT WITH GOING DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDS THRU THURS AFTERNOON UNTIL DETAILS ARE BETTER RESOLVED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE RAMPING UP BY END OF THE WEEK WITH MORE MUGGY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 80S THRU WEDS WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLE BY END OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH WITH ASSOCIATED
LLJ/THETA-E SURGE GENERATING SCT CONVECTION OVER EXTREME WESTERN
INDIANA. SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS INDICATES AROUND 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
IN THIS AREA WITH MUCH LESS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AROUND KFWA.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS AROUND KSBN TONIGHT BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...THOUGH EXACT TIMING IS SUBJECT TO REVISION. SOME
CONCERN FOR LLWS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT CURRENT FORECAST
WIND PROFILES ARE TOO MARGINAL FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...CEO
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 291924
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
324 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 60S.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WMFNT MAKING QUICK PROGRESS NWD THIS AFTN IN ASSOCN/W SW TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE PLAINS. BROAD BELT OF
LL MSTR FLUX TIED TO LLJ WITHIN THETA-E RIDGE LEADING TO AN
EXPANDING AREA OF SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA ACRS WRN ZONES EXTENDING SWWD
INTO ERN IL/WRN IN AND XPC THIS WILL CONT TO GRAVITATE N/NEWD
THROUGH THIS AFTN. SERN HALF THOUGH XPCD TO REMAIN DRY GIVEN
INFLUENCE OF WRN PERIPHERY OF RETREATING CONTINENTAL RIDGE AND POOR
EWD MSTR FLUX BOUND.

OTRWS W/WMFNT LIFTING THROUGH THIS EVENING DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN
APPRECIABLE FOCUS SANS FAR NW ZONES FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A
THRESHOLD LWR BOUND SLGT CHC POP MENTION. ON SAT WARM SECTOR IS
FULLY ENTRENCHED ACRS CWA ALG W/A VRY MOIST AIRMASS. DIURNAL HEATING
SHLD FOSTER SIG INSTABILITY BY AFTN AND W/SRN EDGE OF HGT FALLS IN
ASSOCN/W EJECTING PLAINS SW AND APCHG SFC FNTL ZONE WILL KEEP
W/PRIOR LIKELY POPS ALTHOUGH DID ADD SOME TEMPORAL DETAIL TO SAT
MORNING. SOME LOW RISK FOR SEVERE (DAMAGING WINDS) PER MODEST 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR NR 30-35KTS WHICH COMBINED W/PWATS NR 2 INCHES SUGGESTIVE
OF LOCAL MASS LOADING AND A PULSE SVR THREAT. MUCH WARMER W/LOW TO
MID 80S W-E ACRS CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN LONG TERM REMAINS ON TIMING OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. UPPER TROF AND ASSOC SFC
BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED BY SEVERAL
PREVIOUS SHIFTS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A THREAT AS
IMPRESSIVE GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES INTO THE AREA (PWATS IN
THE 1.7 TO 2 INCH RANGE WHICH IS NEAR 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR). SYSTEM WILL EXIT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH PRECIP
TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE. LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS IN AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING AND SUSPECT MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...ESP IN NW SO HAVE
CUT POPS FURTHER ESP DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. BRIEF DRY PERIOD
LIKELY INTO THE START OF LABOR DAY AS FORCING DIMINISHES AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE EAST FROM N PLAINS/S CANADA
AND SWING A COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LATEST NAM12 HAS SPED UP TIMING A FEW HOURS FROM
PREVIOUS RUN WITH FRONT MOVING THRU IN THE 21Z TIMEFRAME DURING PEAK
HEATING WITH MID LEVEL JET RAMPING UP. 12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF REMAIN
SLOWER WITH FROPA IN THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. SVR THREAT REMAINS
CONDITIONAL AND WILL HINGE ON TIMING OF FROPA WHICH CAN BE FURTHER
NAILED DOWN AS LABOR DAY APPROACHES. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MEAGER
WITH MARGINAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS BUT IF DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
A FEW STRONGER STORMS. AGAIN HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE BIGGEST THREAT
AS BOUNTIFUL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES IN WARM SECTOR. PRECIP
WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS FRONT DEPARTS AND STALLS
E-W INVOF OH VALLEY. MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN DETAILS AND PLACEMENT OF
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG BOUNDARY IN ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THRU END OF PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT WITH GOING DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDS THRU THURS AFTERNOON UNTIL DETAILS ARE BETTER RESOLVED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE RAMPING UP BY END OF THE WEEK WITH MORE MUGGY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 80S THRU WEDS WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLE BY END OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THE PD. HWVR LEADING EDGE OF MOD LL
THETA-E RIDGE WORKING EWD OUT OF IL ALG W/FVRBL LLJ LEADING TO A
RECENT UPTICK IN CONVN ACRS NW IN AND SUSPECT THIS WILL CONT THROUGH
MID AFTN NWD OF WMFNTL BNDRY MIXING NORTH THROUGH CNTRL IN/IL ATTM.
PREV AMENDMENT FOR KSBN COVERS THIS BUT WILL KEEP W/PRIOR DRY TAF
FCST AT KFWA WHICH LOOKS TO STILL RESIDE WITHIN LESS FVRBL WRN
PERIPHERY OF LL RIDGE AXIS AND W/MUCH WEAKER MASS FLUX XPCD THERE.
CANT ENTIRELY RULE AN ISOLD STORM THERE LTR THIS AFTN BUT ODDS ARE
AGAINST IT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...CEO
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 291924
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
324 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 60S.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WMFNT MAKING QUICK PROGRESS NWD THIS AFTN IN ASSOCN/W SW TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE PLAINS. BROAD BELT OF
LL MSTR FLUX TIED TO LLJ WITHIN THETA-E RIDGE LEADING TO AN
EXPANDING AREA OF SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA ACRS WRN ZONES EXTENDING SWWD
INTO ERN IL/WRN IN AND XPC THIS WILL CONT TO GRAVITATE N/NEWD
THROUGH THIS AFTN. SERN HALF THOUGH XPCD TO REMAIN DRY GIVEN
INFLUENCE OF WRN PERIPHERY OF RETREATING CONTINENTAL RIDGE AND POOR
EWD MSTR FLUX BOUND.

OTRWS W/WMFNT LIFTING THROUGH THIS EVENING DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN
APPRECIABLE FOCUS SANS FAR NW ZONES FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A
THRESHOLD LWR BOUND SLGT CHC POP MENTION. ON SAT WARM SECTOR IS
FULLY ENTRENCHED ACRS CWA ALG W/A VRY MOIST AIRMASS. DIURNAL HEATING
SHLD FOSTER SIG INSTABILITY BY AFTN AND W/SRN EDGE OF HGT FALLS IN
ASSOCN/W EJECTING PLAINS SW AND APCHG SFC FNTL ZONE WILL KEEP
W/PRIOR LIKELY POPS ALTHOUGH DID ADD SOME TEMPORAL DETAIL TO SAT
MORNING. SOME LOW RISK FOR SEVERE (DAMAGING WINDS) PER MODEST 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR NR 30-35KTS WHICH COMBINED W/PWATS NR 2 INCHES SUGGESTIVE
OF LOCAL MASS LOADING AND A PULSE SVR THREAT. MUCH WARMER W/LOW TO
MID 80S W-E ACRS CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN LONG TERM REMAINS ON TIMING OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. UPPER TROF AND ASSOC SFC
BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED BY SEVERAL
PREVIOUS SHIFTS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A THREAT AS
IMPRESSIVE GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES INTO THE AREA (PWATS IN
THE 1.7 TO 2 INCH RANGE WHICH IS NEAR 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR). SYSTEM WILL EXIT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH PRECIP
TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE. LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS IN AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING AND SUSPECT MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY...ESP IN NW SO HAVE
CUT POPS FURTHER ESP DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS. BRIEF DRY PERIOD
LIKELY INTO THE START OF LABOR DAY AS FORCING DIMINISHES AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE EAST FROM N PLAINS/S CANADA
AND SWING A COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LATEST NAM12 HAS SPED UP TIMING A FEW HOURS FROM
PREVIOUS RUN WITH FRONT MOVING THRU IN THE 21Z TIMEFRAME DURING PEAK
HEATING WITH MID LEVEL JET RAMPING UP. 12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF REMAIN
SLOWER WITH FROPA IN THE 00-06Z TIMEFRAME. SVR THREAT REMAINS
CONDITIONAL AND WILL HINGE ON TIMING OF FROPA WHICH CAN BE FURTHER
NAILED DOWN AS LABOR DAY APPROACHES. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MEAGER
WITH MARGINAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KTS BUT IF DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
A FEW STRONGER STORMS. AGAIN HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE BIGGEST THREAT
AS BOUNTIFUL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES IN WARM SECTOR. PRECIP
WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS FRONT DEPARTS AND STALLS
E-W INVOF OH VALLEY. MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN DETAILS AND PLACEMENT OF
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG BOUNDARY IN ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THRU END OF PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT WITH GOING DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDS THRU THURS AFTERNOON UNTIL DETAILS ARE BETTER RESOLVED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE RAMPING UP BY END OF THE WEEK WITH MORE MUGGY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 80S THRU WEDS WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLE BY END OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THE PD. HWVR LEADING EDGE OF MOD LL
THETA-E RIDGE WORKING EWD OUT OF IL ALG W/FVRBL LLJ LEADING TO A
RECENT UPTICK IN CONVN ACRS NW IN AND SUSPECT THIS WILL CONT THROUGH
MID AFTN NWD OF WMFNTL BNDRY MIXING NORTH THROUGH CNTRL IN/IL ATTM.
PREV AMENDMENT FOR KSBN COVERS THIS BUT WILL KEEP W/PRIOR DRY TAF
FCST AT KFWA WHICH LOOKS TO STILL RESIDE WITHIN LESS FVRBL WRN
PERIPHERY OF LL RIDGE AXIS AND W/MUCH WEAKER MASS FLUX XPCD THERE.
CANT ENTIRELY RULE AN ISOLD STORM THERE LTR THIS AFTN BUT ODDS ARE
AGAINST IT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...CEO
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 291720
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
120 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RAPID DESTABILIZATION ONGOING SOUTH OF WMFNTL BNDRY POSITIONED FM
CNTRL IL ESEWD THROUGH SRN IN AND AIDING RECENT NWD DVLPMNT OF
SHRA/EMBEDDED THUNDER ALG A KAAA TO KIND LINE LATE THIS MORNING.
GIVEN SAT DEPICTION OF LARGE ACCAS PLUME IN THIS SAME AREA XPC
ADDNL DVLPMNT COMMENSURATE W/CONTD SWD DESTABILIZATION AND EWD
OVERSPREAD OF LLJ CORE CURRENTLY ALIGNED THROUGH CNTRL IL. THUS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXPAND POPS EWD A BIT MORE AND NOTABLY ADJUST
WRN AREAS HIGHER. OTRWS LL MSTR FLUX IS CONSIDERABLE W/345K NOTED
ON H85 SFC AND MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN DVLP IN NW AREAS
AFT 18Z. WILL CONT TO MONITOR BUT EARLY AFTN UPDATES FORTHCOMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OPEN NORTHEAST INTO IA/SRN MN/WI
BY LATER TODAY-TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF
ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION/TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT NE MIX OF SFC
WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO MAINLY IN/MI ZONES BY LATER
TODAY-TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED
WITH LEADING WAA ARM CLIP OUR NW IN/SW LOWER MI COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. KEPT POPS LOW (15-25%) AS MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE WELL NNW OF THE LOCAL AREA.
STABLE/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ON WNW PERIPHERY OF LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
OTHERWISE...WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUD CANOPY AND SE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK (UPPER 70S TO MID
80S).

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR AS HEIGHT
FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM FRONT AND WHAT SHOULD BE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG IT. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS PWATS
APPROACH 2". CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT BEHIND
PRIMARY THETA-E SURGE...WITH MOISTURE CHANNEL/SFC TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINING WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 12Z SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RELUCTANT TO MAKE SIG CHANGES IN LIGHT OF MISSED KILX 00UTC RAOB AND
NAM SPACICITY WRT PWAT/FGEN/DIV FIELDS...INSTEAD FAVORING
CONSISTENCY WITH STRONG NOD TO A CONCEPTUAL FOCUSED FCST. DEEP GOMEX
FEED WITH MONSOONAL TAP AS WESTERN KS VORTEX LIFTS/OPENS NEWD INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD AFFORD WIDE PWAT STREAM
OF NEAR 2 INCHES FROM OZARKS NEWD THROUGH CWA INTO MI THUMB.
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID STILL
AFFORDS 20-40M/12 HR TO CWA. RICH THETA-E PLUME AFFORDING TALL/THIN
CAPE PROFILES AMID DEEP PARALLEL FLOW PROFILE WITH MBE VELOCITIES
TYPICALLY AOB 8 KTS STILL RAISES FLAG FOR HEAVY RAFL POTENTIAL
SAT/SAT NIGHT DESPITE MEAGER MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS/QPF.
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WITH LLJ FEATURE TO TRACK UP OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NIGHT MAY ALSO FACTOR INTO MCS MAINTENANCE AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL INJECTION OF OVERTAKING NORTHERN STREAM PRESENTLY MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH NERN MT MAY ALSO FOSTER REGENERATIVE CONVECTION.
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING/REPETITIVE TRACK COMPLEXES
REMAINS A CONCERN...ALBEIT QUITE NEBULOUS IN ANY SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
DETAIL AND ANY FURTHER STRESS THAN HWO/HVY RAFL MENTION WOULD BE
PREMATURE. REMOVED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALL/LYSIS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING LENDING NO APPRECIABLE FOCUS.
REMAINING CONCERN LIES WITH MONDAY AS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL APPEARING
LESS ATTRACTIVE WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTOUT THROUGH BROAD WRN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. ENERGY LIFTS WELL NW OF CWA IN LIGHT
OF DEEP NEGATIVE TROF AXIS TILTING IN DEFERENCE TO DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING FOSTERED BY STRENGTH OF SERN STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WILL
SIDE WITH CONSISTENCY BUT FOCUS HIEST POPS NWRN CWA WITH GREATER
GRADIENT TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS EAST. BY TUESDAY EVE EXPECT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY AND BEST KINEMATICS
RACING WELL NEWD INTO ONT/QUE AND AGAIN SIDE WITH NO SENSIBLE WX FOR
REMAINDER OF FCST. GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND STARTING MID
WEEK AMID GRADUAL HEIGHT REBOUND SURFACE/ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THE PD. HWVR LEADING EDGE OF MOD LL
THETA-E RIDGE WORKING EWD OUT OF IL ALG W/FVRBL LLJ LEADING TO A
RECENT UPTICK IN CONVN ACRS NW IN AND SUSPECT THIS WILL CONT THROUGH
MID AFTN NWD OF WMFNTL BNDRY MIXING NORTH THROUGH CNTRL IN/IL ATTM.
PREV AMENDMENT FOR KSBN COVERS THIS BUT WILL KEEP W/PRIOR DRY TAF
FCST AT KFWA WHICH LOOKS TO STILL RESIDE WITHIN LESS FVRBL WRN
PERIPHERY OF LL RIDGE AXIS AND W/MUCH WEAKER MASS FLUX XPCD THERE.
CANT ENTIRELY RULE AN ISOLD STORM THERE LTR THIS AFTN BUT ODDS ARE
AGAINST IT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 291720
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
120 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RAPID DESTABILIZATION ONGOING SOUTH OF WMFNTL BNDRY POSITIONED FM
CNTRL IL ESEWD THROUGH SRN IN AND AIDING RECENT NWD DVLPMNT OF
SHRA/EMBEDDED THUNDER ALG A KAAA TO KIND LINE LATE THIS MORNING.
GIVEN SAT DEPICTION OF LARGE ACCAS PLUME IN THIS SAME AREA XPC
ADDNL DVLPMNT COMMENSURATE W/CONTD SWD DESTABILIZATION AND EWD
OVERSPREAD OF LLJ CORE CURRENTLY ALIGNED THROUGH CNTRL IL. THUS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXPAND POPS EWD A BIT MORE AND NOTABLY ADJUST
WRN AREAS HIGHER. OTRWS LL MSTR FLUX IS CONSIDERABLE W/345K NOTED
ON H85 SFC AND MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN DVLP IN NW AREAS
AFT 18Z. WILL CONT TO MONITOR BUT EARLY AFTN UPDATES FORTHCOMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OPEN NORTHEAST INTO IA/SRN MN/WI
BY LATER TODAY-TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF
ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION/TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT NE MIX OF SFC
WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO MAINLY IN/MI ZONES BY LATER
TODAY-TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED
WITH LEADING WAA ARM CLIP OUR NW IN/SW LOWER MI COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. KEPT POPS LOW (15-25%) AS MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE WELL NNW OF THE LOCAL AREA.
STABLE/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ON WNW PERIPHERY OF LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
OTHERWISE...WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUD CANOPY AND SE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK (UPPER 70S TO MID
80S).

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR AS HEIGHT
FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM FRONT AND WHAT SHOULD BE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG IT. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS PWATS
APPROACH 2". CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT BEHIND
PRIMARY THETA-E SURGE...WITH MOISTURE CHANNEL/SFC TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINING WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 12Z SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RELUCTANT TO MAKE SIG CHANGES IN LIGHT OF MISSED KILX 00UTC RAOB AND
NAM SPACICITY WRT PWAT/FGEN/DIV FIELDS...INSTEAD FAVORING
CONSISTENCY WITH STRONG NOD TO A CONCEPTUAL FOCUSED FCST. DEEP GOMEX
FEED WITH MONSOONAL TAP AS WESTERN KS VORTEX LIFTS/OPENS NEWD INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD AFFORD WIDE PWAT STREAM
OF NEAR 2 INCHES FROM OZARKS NEWD THROUGH CWA INTO MI THUMB.
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID STILL
AFFORDS 20-40M/12 HR TO CWA. RICH THETA-E PLUME AFFORDING TALL/THIN
CAPE PROFILES AMID DEEP PARALLEL FLOW PROFILE WITH MBE VELOCITIES
TYPICALLY AOB 8 KTS STILL RAISES FLAG FOR HEAVY RAFL POTENTIAL
SAT/SAT NIGHT DESPITE MEAGER MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS/QPF.
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WITH LLJ FEATURE TO TRACK UP OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NIGHT MAY ALSO FACTOR INTO MCS MAINTENANCE AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL INJECTION OF OVERTAKING NORTHERN STREAM PRESENTLY MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH NERN MT MAY ALSO FOSTER REGENERATIVE CONVECTION.
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING/REPETITIVE TRACK COMPLEXES
REMAINS A CONCERN...ALBEIT QUITE NEBULOUS IN ANY SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
DETAIL AND ANY FURTHER STRESS THAN HWO/HVY RAFL MENTION WOULD BE
PREMATURE. REMOVED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALL/LYSIS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING LENDING NO APPRECIABLE FOCUS.
REMAINING CONCERN LIES WITH MONDAY AS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL APPEARING
LESS ATTRACTIVE WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTOUT THROUGH BROAD WRN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. ENERGY LIFTS WELL NW OF CWA IN LIGHT
OF DEEP NEGATIVE TROF AXIS TILTING IN DEFERENCE TO DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING FOSTERED BY STRENGTH OF SERN STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WILL
SIDE WITH CONSISTENCY BUT FOCUS HIEST POPS NWRN CWA WITH GREATER
GRADIENT TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS EAST. BY TUESDAY EVE EXPECT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY AND BEST KINEMATICS
RACING WELL NEWD INTO ONT/QUE AND AGAIN SIDE WITH NO SENSIBLE WX FOR
REMAINDER OF FCST. GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND STARTING MID
WEEK AMID GRADUAL HEIGHT REBOUND SURFACE/ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THE PD. HWVR LEADING EDGE OF MOD LL
THETA-E RIDGE WORKING EWD OUT OF IL ALG W/FVRBL LLJ LEADING TO A
RECENT UPTICK IN CONVN ACRS NW IN AND SUSPECT THIS WILL CONT THROUGH
MID AFTN NWD OF WMFNTL BNDRY MIXING NORTH THROUGH CNTRL IN/IL ATTM.
PREV AMENDMENT FOR KSBN COVERS THIS BUT WILL KEEP W/PRIOR DRY TAF
FCST AT KFWA WHICH LOOKS TO STILL RESIDE WITHIN LESS FVRBL WRN
PERIPHERY OF LL RIDGE AXIS AND W/MUCH WEAKER MASS FLUX XPCD THERE.
CANT ENTIRELY RULE AN ISOLD STORM THERE LTR THIS AFTN BUT ODDS ARE
AGAINST IT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 291503
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1103 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RAPID DESTABILIZATION ONGOING SOUTH OF WMFNTL BNDRY POSITIONED FM
CNTRL IL ESEWD THROUGH SRN IN AND AIDING RECENT NWD DVLPMNT OF
SHRA/EMBEDDED THUNDER ALG A KAAA TO KIND LINE LATE THIS MORNING.
GIVEN SAT DEPICTION OF LARGE ACCAS PLUME IN THIS SAME AREA XPC
ADDNL DVLPMNT COMMENSURATE W/CONTD SWD DESTABILIZATION AND EWD
OVERSPREAD OF LLJ CORE CURRENTLY ALIGNED THROUGH CNTRL IL. THUS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXPAND POPS EWD A BIT MORE AND NOTABLY ADJUST
WRN AREAS HIGHER. OTRWS LL MSTR FLUX IS CONSIDERABLE W/345K NOTED
ON H85 SFC AND MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN DVLP IN NW AREAS
AFT 18Z. WILL CONT TO MONITOR BUT EARLY AFTN UPDATES FORTHCOMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OPEN NORTHEAST INTO IA/SRN MN/WI
BY LATER TODAY-TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF
ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION/TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT NE MIX OF SFC
WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO MAINLY IN/MI ZONES BY LATER
TODAY-TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED
WITH LEADING WAA ARM CLIP OUR NW IN/SW LOWER MI COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. KEPT POPS LOW (15-25%) AS MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE WELL NNW OF THE LOCAL AREA.
STABLE/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ON WNW PERIPHERY OF LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
OTHERWISE...WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUD CANOPY AND SE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK (UPPER 70S TO MID
80S).

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR AS HEIGHT
FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM FRONT AND WHAT SHOULD BE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG IT. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS PWATS
APPROACH 2". CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT BEHIND
PRIMARY THETA-E SURGE...WITH MOISTURE CHANNEL/SFC TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINING WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 12Z SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RELUCTANT TO MAKE SIG CHANGES IN LIGHT OF MISSED KILX 00UTC RAOB AND
NAM SPACICITY WRT PWAT/FGEN/DIV FIELDS...INSTEAD FAVORING
CONSISTENCY WITH STRONG NOD TO A CONCEPTUAL FOCUSED FCST. DEEP GOMEX
FEED WITH MONSOONAL TAP AS WESTERN KS VORTEX LIFTS/OPENS NEWD INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD AFFORD WIDE PWAT STREAM
OF NEAR 2 INCHES FROM OZARKS NEWD THROUGH CWA INTO MI THUMB.
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID STILL
AFFORDS 20-40M/12 HR TO CWA. RICH THETA-E PLUME AFFORDING TALL/THIN
CAPE PROFILES AMID DEEP PARALLEL FLOW PROFILE WITH MBE VELOCITIES
TYPICALLY AOB 8 KTS STILL RAISES FLAG FOR HEAVY RAFL POTENTIAL
SAT/SAT NIGHT DESPITE MEAGER MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS/QPF.
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WITH LLJ FEATURE TO TRACK UP OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NIGHT MAY ALSO FACTOR INTO MCS MAINTENANCE AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL INJECTION OF OVERTAKING NORTHERN STREAM PRESENTLY MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH NERN MT MAY ALSO FOSTER REGENERATIVE CONVECTION.
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING/REPETITIVE TRACK COMPLEXES
REMAINS A CONCERN...ALBEIT QUITE NEBULOUS IN ANY SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
DETAIL AND ANY FURTHER STRESS THAN HWO/HVY RAFL MENTION WOULD BE
PREMATURE. REMOVED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALL/LYSIS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING LENDING NO APPRECIABLE FOCUS.
REMAINING CONCERN LIES WITH MONDAY AS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL APPEARING
LESS ATTRACTIVE WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTOUT THROUGH BROAD WRN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. ENERGY LIFTS WELL NW OF CWA IN LIGHT
OF DEEP NEGATIVE TROF AXIS TILTING IN DEFERENCE TO DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING FOSTERED BY STRENGTH OF SERN STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WILL
SIDE WITH CONSISTENCY BUT FOCUS HIEST POPS NWRN CWA WITH GREATER
GRADIENT TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS EAST. BY TUESDAY EVE EXPECT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY AND BEST KINEMATICS
RACING WELL NEWD INTO ONT/QUE AND AGAIN SIDE WITH NO SENSIBLE WX FOR
REMAINDER OF FCST. GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND STARTING MID
WEEK AMID GRADUAL HEIGHT REBOUND SURFACE/ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. HIGH BASED/VFR ISO
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT KSBN AS
INITIAL 850 MB THETA-E PUSH LIFT THROUGH. DRIER LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP
KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTN. SHORTWAVE OPENING
NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY SFC WARM
FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE
REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS FCST RANGE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 291503
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1103 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RAPID DESTABILIZATION ONGOING SOUTH OF WMFNTL BNDRY POSITIONED FM
CNTRL IL ESEWD THROUGH SRN IN AND AIDING RECENT NWD DVLPMNT OF
SHRA/EMBEDDED THUNDER ALG A KAAA TO KIND LINE LATE THIS MORNING.
GIVEN SAT DEPICTION OF LARGE ACCAS PLUME IN THIS SAME AREA XPC
ADDNL DVLPMNT COMMENSURATE W/CONTD SWD DESTABILIZATION AND EWD
OVERSPREAD OF LLJ CORE CURRENTLY ALIGNED THROUGH CNTRL IL. THUS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXPAND POPS EWD A BIT MORE AND NOTABLY ADJUST
WRN AREAS HIGHER. OTRWS LL MSTR FLUX IS CONSIDERABLE W/345K NOTED
ON H85 SFC AND MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN DVLP IN NW AREAS
AFT 18Z. WILL CONT TO MONITOR BUT EARLY AFTN UPDATES FORTHCOMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OPEN NORTHEAST INTO IA/SRN MN/WI
BY LATER TODAY-TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF
ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION/TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT NE MIX OF SFC
WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO MAINLY IN/MI ZONES BY LATER
TODAY-TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED
WITH LEADING WAA ARM CLIP OUR NW IN/SW LOWER MI COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. KEPT POPS LOW (15-25%) AS MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE WELL NNW OF THE LOCAL AREA.
STABLE/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ON WNW PERIPHERY OF LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
OTHERWISE...WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUD CANOPY AND SE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK (UPPER 70S TO MID
80S).

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR AS HEIGHT
FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM FRONT AND WHAT SHOULD BE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG IT. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS PWATS
APPROACH 2". CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT BEHIND
PRIMARY THETA-E SURGE...WITH MOISTURE CHANNEL/SFC TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINING WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 12Z SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RELUCTANT TO MAKE SIG CHANGES IN LIGHT OF MISSED KILX 00UTC RAOB AND
NAM SPACICITY WRT PWAT/FGEN/DIV FIELDS...INSTEAD FAVORING
CONSISTENCY WITH STRONG NOD TO A CONCEPTUAL FOCUSED FCST. DEEP GOMEX
FEED WITH MONSOONAL TAP AS WESTERN KS VORTEX LIFTS/OPENS NEWD INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD AFFORD WIDE PWAT STREAM
OF NEAR 2 INCHES FROM OZARKS NEWD THROUGH CWA INTO MI THUMB.
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID STILL
AFFORDS 20-40M/12 HR TO CWA. RICH THETA-E PLUME AFFORDING TALL/THIN
CAPE PROFILES AMID DEEP PARALLEL FLOW PROFILE WITH MBE VELOCITIES
TYPICALLY AOB 8 KTS STILL RAISES FLAG FOR HEAVY RAFL POTENTIAL
SAT/SAT NIGHT DESPITE MEAGER MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS/QPF.
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WITH LLJ FEATURE TO TRACK UP OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NIGHT MAY ALSO FACTOR INTO MCS MAINTENANCE AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL INJECTION OF OVERTAKING NORTHERN STREAM PRESENTLY MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH NERN MT MAY ALSO FOSTER REGENERATIVE CONVECTION.
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING/REPETITIVE TRACK COMPLEXES
REMAINS A CONCERN...ALBEIT QUITE NEBULOUS IN ANY SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
DETAIL AND ANY FURTHER STRESS THAN HWO/HVY RAFL MENTION WOULD BE
PREMATURE. REMOVED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALL/LYSIS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING LENDING NO APPRECIABLE FOCUS.
REMAINING CONCERN LIES WITH MONDAY AS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL APPEARING
LESS ATTRACTIVE WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTOUT THROUGH BROAD WRN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. ENERGY LIFTS WELL NW OF CWA IN LIGHT
OF DEEP NEGATIVE TROF AXIS TILTING IN DEFERENCE TO DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING FOSTERED BY STRENGTH OF SERN STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WILL
SIDE WITH CONSISTENCY BUT FOCUS HIEST POPS NWRN CWA WITH GREATER
GRADIENT TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS EAST. BY TUESDAY EVE EXPECT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY AND BEST KINEMATICS
RACING WELL NEWD INTO ONT/QUE AND AGAIN SIDE WITH NO SENSIBLE WX FOR
REMAINDER OF FCST. GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND STARTING MID
WEEK AMID GRADUAL HEIGHT REBOUND SURFACE/ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. HIGH BASED/VFR ISO
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT KSBN AS
INITIAL 850 MB THETA-E PUSH LIFT THROUGH. DRIER LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP
KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTN. SHORTWAVE OPENING
NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY SFC WARM
FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE
REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS FCST RANGE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 290943
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
543 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OPEN NORTHEAST INTO IA/SRN MN/WI
BY LATER TODAY-TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF
ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION/TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT NE MIX OF SFC
WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO MAINLY IN/MI ZONES BY LATER
TODAY-TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED
WITH LEADING WAA ARM CLIP OUR NW IN/SW LOWER MI COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. KEPT POPS LOW (15-25%) AS MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE WELL NNW OF THE LOCAL AREA.
STABLE/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ON WNW PERIPHERY OF LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
OTHERWISE...WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUD CANOPY AND SE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK (UPPER 70S TO MID
80S).

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR AS HEIGHT
FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM FRONT AND WHAT SHOULD BE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG IT. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS PWATS
APPROACH 2". CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT BEHIND
PRIMARY THETA-E SURGE...WITH MOISTURE CHANNEL/SFC TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINING WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 12Z SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RELUCTANT TO MAKE SIG CHANGES IN LIGHT OF MISSED KILX 00UTC RAOB AND
NAM SPACICITY WRT PWAT/FGEN/DIV FIELDS...INSTEAD FAVORING
CONSISTENCY WITH STRONG NOD TO A CONCEPTUAL FOCUSED FCST. DEEP GOMEX
FEED WITH MONSOONAL TAP AS WESTERN KS VORTEX LIFTS/OPENS NEWD INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD AFFORD WIDE PWAT STREAM
OF NEAR 2 INCHES FROM OZARKS NEWD THROUGH CWA INTO MI THUMB.
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID STILL
AFFORDS 20-40M/12 HR TO CWA. RICH THETA-E PLUME AFFORDING TALL/THIN
CAPE PROFILES AMID DEEP PARALLEL FLOW PROFILE WITH MBE VELOCITIES
TYPICALLY AOB 8 KTS STILL RAISES FLAG FOR HEAVY RAFL POTENTIAL
SAT/SAT NIGHT DESPITE MEAGER MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS/QPF.
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WITH LLJ FEATURE TO TRACK UP OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NIGHT MAY ALSO FACTOR INTO MCS MAINTENANCE AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL INJECTION OF OVERTAKING NORTHERN STREAM PRESENTLY MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH NERN MT MAY ALSO FOSTER REGENERATIVE CONVECTION.
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING/REPETITIVE TRACK COMPLEXES
REMAINS A CONCERN...ALBEIT QUITE NEBULOUS IN ANY SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
DETAIL AND ANY FURTHER STRESS THAN HWO/HVY RAFL MENTION WOULD BE
PREMATURE. REMOVED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALL/LYSIS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING LENDING NO APPRECIABLE FOCUS.
REMAINING CONCERN LIES WITH MONDAY AS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL APPEARING
LESS ATTRACTIVE WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTOUT THROUGH BROAD WRN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. ENERGY LIFTS WELL NW OF CWA IN LIGHT
OF DEEP NEGATIVE TROF AXIS TILTING IN DEFERENCE TO DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING FOSTERED BY STRENGTH OF SERN STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WILL
SIDE WITH CONSISTENCY BUT FOCUS HIEST POPS NWRN CWA WITH GREATER
GRADIENT TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS EAST. BY TUESDAY EVE EXPECT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY AND BEST KINEMATICS
RACING WELL NEWD INTO ONT/QUE AND AGAIN SIDE WITH NO SENSIBLE WX FOR
REMAINDER OF FCST. GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND STARTING MID
WEEK AMID GRADUAL HEIGHT REBOUND SURFACE/ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. HIGH BASED/VFR ISO
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT KSBN AS
INITIAL 850 MB THETA-E PUSH LIFT THROUGH. DRIER LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP
KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTN. SHORTWAVE OPENING
NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY SFC WARM
FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE
REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS FCST RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 290943
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
543 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OPEN NORTHEAST INTO IA/SRN MN/WI
BY LATER TODAY-TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF
ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION/TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT NE MIX OF SFC
WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO MAINLY IN/MI ZONES BY LATER
TODAY-TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED
WITH LEADING WAA ARM CLIP OUR NW IN/SW LOWER MI COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. KEPT POPS LOW (15-25%) AS MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE WELL NNW OF THE LOCAL AREA.
STABLE/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ON WNW PERIPHERY OF LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
OTHERWISE...WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUD CANOPY AND SE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK (UPPER 70S TO MID
80S).

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR AS HEIGHT
FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM FRONT AND WHAT SHOULD BE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG IT. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS PWATS
APPROACH 2". CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT BEHIND
PRIMARY THETA-E SURGE...WITH MOISTURE CHANNEL/SFC TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINING WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 12Z SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RELUCTANT TO MAKE SIG CHANGES IN LIGHT OF MISSED KILX 00UTC RAOB AND
NAM SPACICITY WRT PWAT/FGEN/DIV FIELDS...INSTEAD FAVORING
CONSISTENCY WITH STRONG NOD TO A CONCEPTUAL FOCUSED FCST. DEEP GOMEX
FEED WITH MONSOONAL TAP AS WESTERN KS VORTEX LIFTS/OPENS NEWD INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD AFFORD WIDE PWAT STREAM
OF NEAR 2 INCHES FROM OZARKS NEWD THROUGH CWA INTO MI THUMB.
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID STILL
AFFORDS 20-40M/12 HR TO CWA. RICH THETA-E PLUME AFFORDING TALL/THIN
CAPE PROFILES AMID DEEP PARALLEL FLOW PROFILE WITH MBE VELOCITIES
TYPICALLY AOB 8 KTS STILL RAISES FLAG FOR HEAVY RAFL POTENTIAL
SAT/SAT NIGHT DESPITE MEAGER MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS/QPF.
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WITH LLJ FEATURE TO TRACK UP OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NIGHT MAY ALSO FACTOR INTO MCS MAINTENANCE AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL INJECTION OF OVERTAKING NORTHERN STREAM PRESENTLY MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH NERN MT MAY ALSO FOSTER REGENERATIVE CONVECTION.
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING/REPETITIVE TRACK COMPLEXES
REMAINS A CONCERN...ALBEIT QUITE NEBULOUS IN ANY SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
DETAIL AND ANY FURTHER STRESS THAN HWO/HVY RAFL MENTION WOULD BE
PREMATURE. REMOVED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALL/LYSIS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING LENDING NO APPRECIABLE FOCUS.
REMAINING CONCERN LIES WITH MONDAY AS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL APPEARING
LESS ATTRACTIVE WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTOUT THROUGH BROAD WRN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. ENERGY LIFTS WELL NW OF CWA IN LIGHT
OF DEEP NEGATIVE TROF AXIS TILTING IN DEFERENCE TO DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING FOSTERED BY STRENGTH OF SERN STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WILL
SIDE WITH CONSISTENCY BUT FOCUS HIEST POPS NWRN CWA WITH GREATER
GRADIENT TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS EAST. BY TUESDAY EVE EXPECT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY AND BEST KINEMATICS
RACING WELL NEWD INTO ONT/QUE AND AGAIN SIDE WITH NO SENSIBLE WX FOR
REMAINDER OF FCST. GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND STARTING MID
WEEK AMID GRADUAL HEIGHT REBOUND SURFACE/ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. HIGH BASED/VFR ISO
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT KSBN AS
INITIAL 850 MB THETA-E PUSH LIFT THROUGH. DRIER LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP
KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTN. SHORTWAVE OPENING
NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY SFC WARM
FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE
REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS FCST RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 290911
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
511 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OPEN NORTHEAST INTO IA/SRN MN/WI
BY LATER TODAY-TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF
ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION/TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT NE MIX OF SFC
WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO MAINLY IN/MI ZONES BY LATER
TODAY-TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED
WITH LEADING WAA ARM CLIP OUR NW IN/SW LOWER MI COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. KEPT POPS LOW (15-25%) AS MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE WELL NNW OF THE LOCAL AREA.
STABLE/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ON WNW PERIPHERY OF LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
OTHERWISE...WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUD CANOPY AND SE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK (UPPER 70S TO MID
80S).

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR AS HEIGHT
FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM FRONT AND WHAT SHOULD BE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG IT. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS PWATS
APPROACH 2". CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT BEHIND
PRIMARY THETA-E SURGE...WITH MOISTURE CHANNEL/SFC TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINING WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 12Z SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RELUCTANT TO MAKE SIG CHANGES IN LIGHT OF MISSED KILX 00UTC RAOB AND
NAM SPACICITY WRT PWAT/FGEN/DIV FIELDS...INSTEAD FAVORING
CONSISTENCY WITH STRONG NOD TO A CONCEPTUAL FOCUSED FCST. DEEP GOMEX
FEED WITH MONSOONAL TAP AS WESTERN KS VORTEX LIFTS/OPENS NEWD INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD AFFORD WIDE PWAT STREAM
OF NEAR 2 INCHES FROM OZARKS NEWD THROUGH CWA INTO MI THUMB.
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID STILL
AFFORDS 20-40M/12 HR TO CWA. RICH THETA-E PLUME AFFORDING TALL/THIN
CAPE PROFILES AMID DEEP PARALLEL FLOW PROFILE WITH MBE VELOCITIES
TYPICALLY AOB 8 KTS STILL RAISES FLAG FOR HEAVY RAFL POTENTIAL
SAT/SAT NIGHT DESPITE MEAGER MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS/QPF.
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WITH LLJ FEATURE TO TRACK UP OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NIGHT MAY ALSO FACTOR INTO MCS MAINTENANCE AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL INJECTION OF OVERTAKING NORTHERN STREAM PRESENTLY MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH NERN MT MAY ALSO FOSTER REGENERATIVE CONVECTION.
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING/REPETITIVE TRACK COMPLEXES
REMAINS A CONCERN...ALBEIT QUITE NEBULOUS IN ANY SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
DETAIL AND ANY FURTHER STRESS THAN HWO/HVY RAFL MENTION WOULD BE
PREMATURE. REMOVED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALL/LYSIS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING LENDING NO APPRECIABLE FOCUS.
REMAINING CONCERN LIES WITH MONDAY AS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL APPEARING
LESS ATTRACTIVE WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTOUT THROUGH BROAD WRN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. ENERGY LIFTS WELL NW OF CWA IN LIGHT
OF DEEP NEGATIVE TROF AXIS TILTING IN DEFERENCE TO DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING FOSTERED BY STRENGTH OF SERN STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WILL
SIDE WITH CONSISTENCY BUT FOCUS HIEST POPS NWRN CWA WITH GREATER
GRADIENT TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS EAST. BY TUESDAY EVE EXPECT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY AND BEST KINEMATICS
RACING WELL NEWD INTO ONT/QUE AND AGAIN SIDE WITH NO SENSIBLE WX FOR
REMAINDER OF FCST. GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND STARTING MID
WEEK AMID GRADUAL HEIGHT REBOUND SURFACE/ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME HIGH BASED/VFR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO KSBN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING AT KSBN TIMED WITH INITIAL 850 MB
THETA-E PUSH. DRIER LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM
WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH MID AFTN.
SHORTWAVE OPENING NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY
SFC WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS
FCST RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 290911
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
511 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OPEN NORTHEAST INTO IA/SRN MN/WI
BY LATER TODAY-TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF
ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION/TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT NE MIX OF SFC
WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO MAINLY IN/MI ZONES BY LATER
TODAY-TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED
WITH LEADING WAA ARM CLIP OUR NW IN/SW LOWER MI COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. KEPT POPS LOW (15-25%) AS MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE WELL NNW OF THE LOCAL AREA.
STABLE/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ON WNW PERIPHERY OF LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
OTHERWISE...WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUD CANOPY AND SE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK (UPPER 70S TO MID
80S).

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR AS HEIGHT
FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM FRONT AND WHAT SHOULD BE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG IT. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS PWATS
APPROACH 2". CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT BEHIND
PRIMARY THETA-E SURGE...WITH MOISTURE CHANNEL/SFC TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINING WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 12Z SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RELUCTANT TO MAKE SIG CHANGES IN LIGHT OF MISSED KILX 00UTC RAOB AND
NAM SPACICITY WRT PWAT/FGEN/DIV FIELDS...INSTEAD FAVORING
CONSISTENCY WITH STRONG NOD TO A CONCEPTUAL FOCUSED FCST. DEEP GOMEX
FEED WITH MONSOONAL TAP AS WESTERN KS VORTEX LIFTS/OPENS NEWD INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD AFFORD WIDE PWAT STREAM
OF NEAR 2 INCHES FROM OZARKS NEWD THROUGH CWA INTO MI THUMB.
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID STILL
AFFORDS 20-40M/12 HR TO CWA. RICH THETA-E PLUME AFFORDING TALL/THIN
CAPE PROFILES AMID DEEP PARALLEL FLOW PROFILE WITH MBE VELOCITIES
TYPICALLY AOB 8 KTS STILL RAISES FLAG FOR HEAVY RAFL POTENTIAL
SAT/SAT NIGHT DESPITE MEAGER MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS/QPF.
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WITH LLJ FEATURE TO TRACK UP OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NIGHT MAY ALSO FACTOR INTO MCS MAINTENANCE AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL INJECTION OF OVERTAKING NORTHERN STREAM PRESENTLY MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH NERN MT MAY ALSO FOSTER REGENERATIVE CONVECTION.
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING/REPETITIVE TRACK COMPLEXES
REMAINS A CONCERN...ALBEIT QUITE NEBULOUS IN ANY SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
DETAIL AND ANY FURTHER STRESS THAN HWO/HVY RAFL MENTION WOULD BE
PREMATURE. REMOVED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALL/LYSIS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING LENDING NO APPRECIABLE FOCUS.
REMAINING CONCERN LIES WITH MONDAY AS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL APPEARING
LESS ATTRACTIVE WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTOUT THROUGH BROAD WRN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. ENERGY LIFTS WELL NW OF CWA IN LIGHT
OF DEEP NEGATIVE TROF AXIS TILTING IN DEFERENCE TO DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING FOSTERED BY STRENGTH OF SERN STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WILL
SIDE WITH CONSISTENCY BUT FOCUS HIEST POPS NWRN CWA WITH GREATER
GRADIENT TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS EAST. BY TUESDAY EVE EXPECT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY AND BEST KINEMATICS
RACING WELL NEWD INTO ONT/QUE AND AGAIN SIDE WITH NO SENSIBLE WX FOR
REMAINDER OF FCST. GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND STARTING MID
WEEK AMID GRADUAL HEIGHT REBOUND SURFACE/ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME HIGH BASED/VFR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO KSBN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING AT KSBN TIMED WITH INITIAL 850 MB
THETA-E PUSH. DRIER LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM
WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH MID AFTN.
SHORTWAVE OPENING NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY
SFC WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS
FCST RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 290453 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1253 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S...AND RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING ALONG THETA E SURGE AND NOSE OF WEAK 20 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE. THETA E ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NOSE OF THIS WEAK LLJ FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
DRY FLOW TO HELP ERODE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION BUT CONCERN SOME
ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA COULD RIDE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST CWA. HAVE ADDED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW TO A LINE ROUGHLY WEST OF LOGANSPORT TO
COLDWATER AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE
UPTICK IN POPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SFC RIDGE DRAPED THROUGH THE ERN LAKES THIS AFTN WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOW PRES ADVG NEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC OLD FNTL BNDRY
DRAPED THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MIX RAPIDLY NWD ON FRI AS
PARENT SW TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO WRN WI BY EVENING.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SIMILAR ALOFT YET GENERALLY SLWR W/DEEMED
ADEQUATE LL MSTR FLUX AND HAVE DAMPENED BOTH POP/WX EXTENT DURING
THE DAY AS MOST FVRBL THETA-E SURGE ALG NOSE OF NWD INTENSIFYING LLJ
DVLPS TWD 00Z. OTRWS TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY VS THIS AFTN
YET KEPT W/A SPLIT BASED MOS BLEND IN LIGHT OF COPIOUS MID-HIGH CLD
SHIELD UPSTREAM RETARDING A MORE SIG DIURNAL AND SUSPECT THIS MAY BE
THE CASE HERE ON FRI ESP W/SFC TRAJECTORIES REMAINING MORE SELY
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK...

QUITE AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE CWA...

THE FIRST SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA DEVELOPS OVER
WI/MN/IA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS DEEPENING THE EXISTING
500MB TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL REACH
LAKE HURON AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
LOWER MI. THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850-500MB QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI/EASTERN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC PUMPING
MOISTURE/WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF INTO THE REGION THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OVER
ILLINOIS/LOWER MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT. PWATS OVER THE
CWA INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...KEPT GOING HIGH POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. STILL FEELING CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF 12-14KFT AND ROUGHLY
FRONT PARALLEL FLOW. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...THOUGH IT HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS TO ROUGHLY
15 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY GIVEN MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS FOR THE WEEKEND CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NW TO SE AS A
RIDGE ALOFT FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR A BRIEF TIME.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WHEN A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE MN/WI/IA
AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING FIRMLY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SITUATED IN THE MID
WEST STATES MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EASILY TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. PWATS MONDAY GENERALLY BUMP UP TOWARDS 1.5-1.8 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE IN/SOUTHERN MI/WESTERN OH REGION. THE PATH OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/UL TROUGH IS IMPACTED BY THE EXITING SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE HOWEVER...MOVING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN THIS WEEKENDS LOW
TRACK. IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WI/MN/IA AREA MONDAY
MORNING...INTO UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND JAMES BAY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SMALL PERTURBATIONS. AT THE SURFACE...WE DEAL WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGHER INSTABILITY/SHEAR MATERIALIZES.
MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO IL/LAKE MI BY 18Z MON. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER...BRINGING IT INTO THE SAME AREA BY 00Z TUE. IF THE FRONT
ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING...THINK SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500-2500
J/KG. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES
FORECASTED YESTERDAY...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 30-35 KNOTS. 0-3 KM SRH
VALUES REACH AROUND 150-170 M2/S2...SO WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST WHEN
SHEAR IS AT A MAXIMUM AND FRONT IS APPROACHING WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.

MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE MID-LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST STILL
IN PLACE...THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR BUSY WEATHER MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT STALLS OUT. GFS/ECWMF DISAGREE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
STALLED FRONT...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA...AND THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY BRUSHING
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO
THE AREA. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE AREA. KEPT CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME HIGH BASED/VFR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO KSBN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING AT KSBN TIMED WITH INITIAL 850 MB
THETA-E PUSH. DRIER LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM
WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH MID AFTN.
SHORTWAVE OPENING NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY
SFC WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS
FCST RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA











000
FXUS63 KIWX 290453 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1253 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S...AND RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING ALONG THETA E SURGE AND NOSE OF WEAK 20 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE. THETA E ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NOSE OF THIS WEAK LLJ FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
DRY FLOW TO HELP ERODE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION BUT CONCERN SOME
ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA COULD RIDE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST CWA. HAVE ADDED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW TO A LINE ROUGHLY WEST OF LOGANSPORT TO
COLDWATER AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE
UPTICK IN POPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SFC RIDGE DRAPED THROUGH THE ERN LAKES THIS AFTN WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOW PRES ADVG NEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC OLD FNTL BNDRY
DRAPED THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MIX RAPIDLY NWD ON FRI AS
PARENT SW TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO WRN WI BY EVENING.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SIMILAR ALOFT YET GENERALLY SLWR W/DEEMED
ADEQUATE LL MSTR FLUX AND HAVE DAMPENED BOTH POP/WX EXTENT DURING
THE DAY AS MOST FVRBL THETA-E SURGE ALG NOSE OF NWD INTENSIFYING LLJ
DVLPS TWD 00Z. OTRWS TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY VS THIS AFTN
YET KEPT W/A SPLIT BASED MOS BLEND IN LIGHT OF COPIOUS MID-HIGH CLD
SHIELD UPSTREAM RETARDING A MORE SIG DIURNAL AND SUSPECT THIS MAY BE
THE CASE HERE ON FRI ESP W/SFC TRAJECTORIES REMAINING MORE SELY
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK...

QUITE AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE CWA...

THE FIRST SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA DEVELOPS OVER
WI/MN/IA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS DEEPENING THE EXISTING
500MB TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL REACH
LAKE HURON AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
LOWER MI. THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850-500MB QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI/EASTERN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC PUMPING
MOISTURE/WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF INTO THE REGION THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OVER
ILLINOIS/LOWER MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT. PWATS OVER THE
CWA INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...KEPT GOING HIGH POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. STILL FEELING CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF 12-14KFT AND ROUGHLY
FRONT PARALLEL FLOW. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...THOUGH IT HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS TO ROUGHLY
15 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY GIVEN MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS FOR THE WEEKEND CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NW TO SE AS A
RIDGE ALOFT FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR A BRIEF TIME.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WHEN A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE MN/WI/IA
AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING FIRMLY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SITUATED IN THE MID
WEST STATES MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EASILY TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. PWATS MONDAY GENERALLY BUMP UP TOWARDS 1.5-1.8 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE IN/SOUTHERN MI/WESTERN OH REGION. THE PATH OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/UL TROUGH IS IMPACTED BY THE EXITING SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE HOWEVER...MOVING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN THIS WEEKENDS LOW
TRACK. IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WI/MN/IA AREA MONDAY
MORNING...INTO UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND JAMES BAY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SMALL PERTURBATIONS. AT THE SURFACE...WE DEAL WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGHER INSTABILITY/SHEAR MATERIALIZES.
MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO IL/LAKE MI BY 18Z MON. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER...BRINGING IT INTO THE SAME AREA BY 00Z TUE. IF THE FRONT
ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING...THINK SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500-2500
J/KG. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES
FORECASTED YESTERDAY...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 30-35 KNOTS. 0-3 KM SRH
VALUES REACH AROUND 150-170 M2/S2...SO WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST WHEN
SHEAR IS AT A MAXIMUM AND FRONT IS APPROACHING WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.

MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE MID-LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST STILL
IN PLACE...THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR BUSY WEATHER MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT STALLS OUT. GFS/ECWMF DISAGREE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
STALLED FRONT...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA...AND THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY BRUSHING
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO
THE AREA. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE AREA. KEPT CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME HIGH BASED/VFR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO KSBN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING AT KSBN TIMED WITH INITIAL 850 MB
THETA-E PUSH. DRIER LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM
WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH MID AFTN.
SHORTWAVE OPENING NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY
SFC WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS
FCST RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 290450
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S...AND RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING ALONG THETA E SURGE AND NOSE OF WEAK 20 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE. THETA E ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NOSE OF THIS WEAK LLJ FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
DRY FLOW TO HELP ERODE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION BUT CONCERN SOME
ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA COULD RIDE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST CWA. HAVE ADDED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW TO A LINE ROUGHLY WEST OF LOGANSPORT TO
COLDWATER AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE
UPTICK IN POPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SFC RIDGE DRAPED THROUGH THE ERN LAKES THIS AFTN WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOW PRES ADVG NEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC OLD FNTL BNDRY
DRAPED THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MIX RAPIDLY NWD ON FRI AS
PARENT SW TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO WRN WI BY EVENING.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SIMILAR ALOFT YET GENERALLY SLWR W/DEEMED
ADEQUATE LL MSTR FLUX AND HAVE DAMPENED BOTH POP/WX EXTENT DURING
THE DAY AS MOST FVRBL THETA-E SURGE ALG NOSE OF NWD INTENSIFYING LLJ
DVLPS TWD 00Z. OTRWS TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY VS THIS AFTN
YET KEPT W/A SPLIT BASED MOS BLEND IN LIGHT OF COPIOUS MID-HIGH CLD
SHIELD UPSTREAM RETARDING A MORE SIG DIURNAL AND SUSPECT THIS MAY BE
THE CASE HERE ON FRI ESP W/SFC TRAJECTORIES REMAINING MORE SELY
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK...

QUITE AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE CWA...

THE FIRST SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA DEVELOPS OVER
WI/MN/IA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS DEEPENING THE EXISTING
500MB TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL REACH
LAKE HURON AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
LOWER MI. THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850-500MB QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI/EASTERN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC PUMPING
MOISTURE/WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF INTO THE REGION THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OVER
ILLINOIS/LOWER MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT. PWATS OVER THE
CWA INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...KEPT GOING HIGH POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. STILL FEELING CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF 12-14KFT AND ROUGHLY
FRONT PARALLEL FLOW. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...THOUGH IT HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS TO ROUGHLY
15 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY GIVEN MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS FOR THE WEEKEND CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NW TO SE AS A
RIDGE ALOFT FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR A BRIEF TIME.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WHEN A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE MN/WI/IA
AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING FIRMLY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SITUATED IN THE MID
WEST STATES MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EASILY TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. PWATS MONDAY GENERALLY BUMP UP TOWARDS 1.5-1.8 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE IN/SOUTHERN MI/WESTERN OH REGION. THE PATH OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/UL TROUGH IS IMPACTED BY THE EXITING SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE HOWEVER...MOVING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN THIS WEEKENDS LOW
TRACK. IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WI/MN/IA AREA MONDAY
MORNING...INTO UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND JAMES BAY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SMALL PERTURBATIONS. AT THE SURFACE...WE DEAL WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGHER INSTABILITY/SHEAR MATERIALIZES.
MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO IL/LAKE MI BY 18Z MON. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER...BRINGING IT INTO THE SAME AREA BY 00Z TUE. IF THE FRONT
ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING...THINK SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500-2500
J/KG. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES
FORECASTED YESTERDAY...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 30-35 KNOTS. 0-3 KM SRH
VALUES REACH AROUND 150-170 M2/S2...SO WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST WHEN
SHEAR IS AT A MAXIMUM AND FRONT IS APPROACHING WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.

MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE MID-LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST STILL
IN PLACE...THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR BUSY WEATHER MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT STALLS OUT. GFS/ECWMF DISAGREE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
STALLED FRONT...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA...AND THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY BRUSHING
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO
THE AREA. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE AREA. KEPT CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME HIGH BASED/VFR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO KSBN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING AT KSBN TIMIED WITH INITIAL 850 MB
THETA-E PUSH. DRIER LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM
WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH MID AFTN.
SHORTWAVE OPENING NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY
SFC WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS
FCST RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 290450
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S...AND RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING ALONG THETA E SURGE AND NOSE OF WEAK 20 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE. THETA E ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NOSE OF THIS WEAK LLJ FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
DRY FLOW TO HELP ERODE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION BUT CONCERN SOME
ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA COULD RIDE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST CWA. HAVE ADDED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW TO A LINE ROUGHLY WEST OF LOGANSPORT TO
COLDWATER AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE
UPTICK IN POPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SFC RIDGE DRAPED THROUGH THE ERN LAKES THIS AFTN WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOW PRES ADVG NEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC OLD FNTL BNDRY
DRAPED THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MIX RAPIDLY NWD ON FRI AS
PARENT SW TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO WRN WI BY EVENING.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SIMILAR ALOFT YET GENERALLY SLWR W/DEEMED
ADEQUATE LL MSTR FLUX AND HAVE DAMPENED BOTH POP/WX EXTENT DURING
THE DAY AS MOST FVRBL THETA-E SURGE ALG NOSE OF NWD INTENSIFYING LLJ
DVLPS TWD 00Z. OTRWS TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY VS THIS AFTN
YET KEPT W/A SPLIT BASED MOS BLEND IN LIGHT OF COPIOUS MID-HIGH CLD
SHIELD UPSTREAM RETARDING A MORE SIG DIURNAL AND SUSPECT THIS MAY BE
THE CASE HERE ON FRI ESP W/SFC TRAJECTORIES REMAINING MORE SELY
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK...

QUITE AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE CWA...

THE FIRST SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA DEVELOPS OVER
WI/MN/IA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS DEEPENING THE EXISTING
500MB TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL REACH
LAKE HURON AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
LOWER MI. THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850-500MB QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI/EASTERN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC PUMPING
MOISTURE/WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF INTO THE REGION THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OVER
ILLINOIS/LOWER MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT. PWATS OVER THE
CWA INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...KEPT GOING HIGH POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. STILL FEELING CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF 12-14KFT AND ROUGHLY
FRONT PARALLEL FLOW. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...THOUGH IT HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS TO ROUGHLY
15 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY GIVEN MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS FOR THE WEEKEND CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NW TO SE AS A
RIDGE ALOFT FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR A BRIEF TIME.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WHEN A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE MN/WI/IA
AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING FIRMLY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SITUATED IN THE MID
WEST STATES MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EASILY TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. PWATS MONDAY GENERALLY BUMP UP TOWARDS 1.5-1.8 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE IN/SOUTHERN MI/WESTERN OH REGION. THE PATH OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/UL TROUGH IS IMPACTED BY THE EXITING SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE HOWEVER...MOVING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN THIS WEEKENDS LOW
TRACK. IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WI/MN/IA AREA MONDAY
MORNING...INTO UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND JAMES BAY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SMALL PERTURBATIONS. AT THE SURFACE...WE DEAL WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGHER INSTABILITY/SHEAR MATERIALIZES.
MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO IL/LAKE MI BY 18Z MON. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER...BRINGING IT INTO THE SAME AREA BY 00Z TUE. IF THE FRONT
ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING...THINK SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500-2500
J/KG. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES
FORECASTED YESTERDAY...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 30-35 KNOTS. 0-3 KM SRH
VALUES REACH AROUND 150-170 M2/S2...SO WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST WHEN
SHEAR IS AT A MAXIMUM AND FRONT IS APPROACHING WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.

MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE MID-LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST STILL
IN PLACE...THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR BUSY WEATHER MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT STALLS OUT. GFS/ECWMF DISAGREE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
STALLED FRONT...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA...AND THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY BRUSHING
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO
THE AREA. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE AREA. KEPT CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME HIGH BASED/VFR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO KSBN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING AT KSBN TIMIED WITH INITIAL 850 MB
THETA-E PUSH. DRIER LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM
WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH MID AFTN.
SHORTWAVE OPENING NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY
SFC WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS
FCST RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 282321
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
721 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESECIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE
MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING ALONG THETA E SURGE AND NOSE OF WEAK 20 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE. THETA E ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NOSE OF THIS WEAK LLJ FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
DRY FLOW TO HELP ERODE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION BUT CONCERN SOME
ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA COULD RIDE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST CWA. HAVE ADDED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW TO A LINE ROUGHLY WEST OF LOGANSPORT TO
COLDWATER AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE
UPTICK IN POPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SFC RIDGE DRAPED THROUGH THE ERN LAKES THIS AFTN WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOW PRES ADVG NEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC OLD FNTL BNDRY
DRAPED THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MIX RAPIDLY NWD ON FRI AS
PARENT SW TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO WRN WI BY EVENING.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SIMILAR ALOFT YET GENERALLY SLWR W/DEEMED
ADEQUATE LL MSTR FLUX AND HAVE DAMPENED BOTH POP/WX EXTENT DURING
THE DAY AS MOST FVRBL THETA-E SURGE ALG NOSE OF NWD INTENSIFYING LLJ
DVLPS TWD 00Z. OTRWS TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY VS THIS AFTN
YET KEPT W/A SPLIT BASED MOS BLEND IN LIGHT OF COPIOUS MID-HIGH CLD
SHIELD UPSTREAM RETARDING A MORE SIG DIURNAL AND SUSPECT THIS MAY BE
THE CASE HERE ON FRI ESP W/SFC TRAJECTORIES REMAINING MORE SELY
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK...

QUITE AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE CWA...

THE FIRST SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA DEVELOPS OVER
WI/MN/IA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS DEEPENING THE EXISTING
500MB TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL REACH
LAKE HURON AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
LOWER MI. THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850-500MB QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI/EASTERN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC PUMPING
MOISTURE/WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF INTO THE REGION THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OVER
ILLINOIS/LOWER MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT. PWATS OVER THE
CWA INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...KEPT GOING HIGH POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. STILL FEELING CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF 12-14KFT AND ROUGHLY
FRONT PARALLEL FLOW. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...THOUGH IT HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS TO ROUGHLY
15 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY GIVEN MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS FOR THE WEEKEND CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NW TO SE AS A
RIDGE ALOFT FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR A BRIEF TIME.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WHEN A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE MN/WI/IA
AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING FIRMLY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SITUATED IN THE MID
WEST STATES MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EASILY TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. PWATS MONDAY GENERALLY BUMP UP TOWARDS 1.5-1.8 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE IN/SOUTHERN MI/WESTERN OH REGION. THE PATH OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/UL TROUGH IS IMPACTED BY THE EXITING SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE HOWEVER...MOVING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN THIS WEEKENDS LOW
TRACK. IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WI/MN/IA AREA MONDAY
MORNING...INTO UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND JAMES BAY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SMALL PERTURBATIONS. AT THE SURFACE...WE DEAL WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGHER INSTABILITY/SHEAR MATERIALIZES.
MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO IL/LAKE MI BY 18Z MON. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER...BRINGING IT INTO THE SAME AREA BY 00Z TUE. IF THE FRONT
ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING...THINK SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500-2500
J/KG. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES
FORECASTED YESTERDAY...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 30-35 KNOTS. 0-3 KM SRH
VALUES REACH AROUND 150-170 M2/S2...SO WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST WHEN
SHEAR IS AT A MAXIMUM AND FRONT IS APPROACHING WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.

MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE MID-LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST STILL
IN PLACE...THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR BUSY WEATHER MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT STALLS OUT. GFS/ECWMF DISAGREE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
STALLED FRONT...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA...AND THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY BRUSHING
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO
THE AREA. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE AREA. KEPT CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MOISTURE ADVECTION UPSTREAM AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS
SPAWNED A SMALL COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOT HANDLED
WELL BY HIRES GUIDANCE. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGEST SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD GET INTO KSBN LATER THIS EVENING BUT IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND LOSS OF ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OF 20KTS IS FOCUSED
INTO NW INDIANA AND THIS MAY ALLOW SOME PCPN TO MAKE IT. FOR NOW
WILL ADD A VCTS BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY FURTHER RESTRICTIONS FOR A FEW
HOURS AS WE MONITOR TRENDS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. KFWA LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST WITHIN DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR SO VFR PLANNED THERE. VFR FRIDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE TOO
LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION NOW IN THE LATER PORTIONS OF TAF.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 282321
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
721 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESECIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE
MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING ALONG THETA E SURGE AND NOSE OF WEAK 20 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE. THETA E ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NOSE OF THIS WEAK LLJ FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
DRY FLOW TO HELP ERODE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION BUT CONCERN SOME
ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA COULD RIDE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST CWA. HAVE ADDED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW TO A LINE ROUGHLY WEST OF LOGANSPORT TO
COLDWATER AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE
UPTICK IN POPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SFC RIDGE DRAPED THROUGH THE ERN LAKES THIS AFTN WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOW PRES ADVG NEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC OLD FNTL BNDRY
DRAPED THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MIX RAPIDLY NWD ON FRI AS
PARENT SW TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO WRN WI BY EVENING.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SIMILAR ALOFT YET GENERALLY SLWR W/DEEMED
ADEQUATE LL MSTR FLUX AND HAVE DAMPENED BOTH POP/WX EXTENT DURING
THE DAY AS MOST FVRBL THETA-E SURGE ALG NOSE OF NWD INTENSIFYING LLJ
DVLPS TWD 00Z. OTRWS TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY VS THIS AFTN
YET KEPT W/A SPLIT BASED MOS BLEND IN LIGHT OF COPIOUS MID-HIGH CLD
SHIELD UPSTREAM RETARDING A MORE SIG DIURNAL AND SUSPECT THIS MAY BE
THE CASE HERE ON FRI ESP W/SFC TRAJECTORIES REMAINING MORE SELY
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK...

QUITE AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE CWA...

THE FIRST SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA DEVELOPS OVER
WI/MN/IA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS DEEPENING THE EXISTING
500MB TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL REACH
LAKE HURON AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
LOWER MI. THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850-500MB QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI/EASTERN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC PUMPING
MOISTURE/WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF INTO THE REGION THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OVER
ILLINOIS/LOWER MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT. PWATS OVER THE
CWA INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...KEPT GOING HIGH POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. STILL FEELING CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF 12-14KFT AND ROUGHLY
FRONT PARALLEL FLOW. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...THOUGH IT HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS TO ROUGHLY
15 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY GIVEN MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS FOR THE WEEKEND CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NW TO SE AS A
RIDGE ALOFT FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR A BRIEF TIME.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WHEN A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE MN/WI/IA
AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING FIRMLY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SITUATED IN THE MID
WEST STATES MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EASILY TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. PWATS MONDAY GENERALLY BUMP UP TOWARDS 1.5-1.8 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE IN/SOUTHERN MI/WESTERN OH REGION. THE PATH OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/UL TROUGH IS IMPACTED BY THE EXITING SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE HOWEVER...MOVING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN THIS WEEKENDS LOW
TRACK. IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WI/MN/IA AREA MONDAY
MORNING...INTO UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND JAMES BAY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SMALL PERTURBATIONS. AT THE SURFACE...WE DEAL WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGHER INSTABILITY/SHEAR MATERIALIZES.
MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO IL/LAKE MI BY 18Z MON. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER...BRINGING IT INTO THE SAME AREA BY 00Z TUE. IF THE FRONT
ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING...THINK SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500-2500
J/KG. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES
FORECASTED YESTERDAY...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 30-35 KNOTS. 0-3 KM SRH
VALUES REACH AROUND 150-170 M2/S2...SO WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST WHEN
SHEAR IS AT A MAXIMUM AND FRONT IS APPROACHING WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.

MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE MID-LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST STILL
IN PLACE...THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR BUSY WEATHER MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT STALLS OUT. GFS/ECWMF DISAGREE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
STALLED FRONT...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA...AND THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY BRUSHING
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO
THE AREA. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE AREA. KEPT CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MOISTURE ADVECTION UPSTREAM AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS
SPAWNED A SMALL COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOT HANDLED
WELL BY HIRES GUIDANCE. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGEST SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD GET INTO KSBN LATER THIS EVENING BUT IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND LOSS OF ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OF 20KTS IS FOCUSED
INTO NW INDIANA AND THIS MAY ALLOW SOME PCPN TO MAKE IT. FOR NOW
WILL ADD A VCTS BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY FURTHER RESTRICTIONS FOR A FEW
HOURS AS WE MONITOR TRENDS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. KFWA LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST WITHIN DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR SO VFR PLANNED THERE. VFR FRIDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE TOO
LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION NOW IN THE LATER PORTIONS OF TAF.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 281934
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
334 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESECIALLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
IN NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SFC RIDGE DRAPED THROUGH THE ERN LAKES THIS AFTN WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOW PRES ADVG NEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC OLD FNTL BNDRY
DRAPED THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MIX RAPIDLY NWD ON FRI AS
PARENT SW TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO WRN WI BY EVENING.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SIMILAR ALOFT YET GENERALLY SLWR W/DEEMED
ADEQUATE LL MSTR FLUX AND HAVE DAMPENED BOTH POP/WX EXTENT DURING
THE DAY AS MOST FVRBL THETA-E SURGE ALG NOSE OF NWD INTENSIFYING LLJ
DVLPS TWD 00Z. OTRWS TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY VS THIS AFTN
YET KEPT W/A SPLIT BASED MOS BLEND IN LIGHT OF COPIOUS MID-HIGH CLD
SHIELD UPSTREAM RETARDING A MORE SIG DIURNAL AND SUSPECT THIS MAY BE
THE CASE HERE ON FRI ESP W/SFC TRAJECTORIES REMAINING MORE SELY
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK...

QUITE AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE CWA...

THE FIRST SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA DEVELOPS OVER
WI/MN/IA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS DEEPENING THE EXISTING
500MB TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL REACH
LAKE HURON AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
LOWER MI. THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850-500MB QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI/EASTERN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC PUMPING
MOISTURE/WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF INTO THE REGION THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OVER
ILLINOIS/LOWER MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT. PWATS OVER THE
CWA INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...KEPT GOING HIGH POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. STILL FEELING CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF 12-14KFT AND ROUGHLY
FRONT PARALLEL FLOW. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...THOUGH IT HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS TO ROUGHLY
15 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY GIVEN MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS FOR THE WEEKEND CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NW TO SE AS A
RIDGE ALOFT FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR A BRIEF TIME.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WHEN A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE MN/WI/IA
AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING FIRMLY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SITUATED IN THE MID
WEST STATES MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EASILY TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. PWATS MONDAY GENERALLY BUMP UP TOWARDS 1.5-1.8 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE IN/SOUTHERN MI/WESTERN OH REGION. THE PATH OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/UL TROUGH IS IMPACTED BY THE EXITING SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE HOWEVER...MOVING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN THIS WEEKENDS LOW
TRACK. IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WI/MN/IA AREA MONDAY
MORNING...INTO UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND JAMES BAY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SMALL PERTURBATIONS. AT THE SURFACE...WE DEAL WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGHER INSTABILITY/SHEAR MATERIALIZES.
MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO IL/LAKE MI BY 18Z MON. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER...BRINGING IT INTO THE SAME AREA BY 00Z TUE. IF THE FRONT
ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING...THINK SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500-2500
J/KG. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES
FORECASTED YESTERDAY...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 30-35 KNOTS. 0-3 KM SRH
VALUES REACH AROUND 150-170 M2/S2...SO WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST WHEN
SHEAR IS AT A MAXIMUM AND FRONT IS APPROACHING WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.

MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE MID-LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST STILL
IN PLACE...THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR BUSY WEATHER MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT STALLS OUT. GFS/ECWMF DISAGREE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
STALLED FRONT...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA...AND THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY BRUSHING
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO
THE AREA. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE AREA. KEPT CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THE PD W/GRADIENT FLW BLO 10KTS.
WMFNTL BNDRY XPCD TO MIX QUICKLY NWD ON FRI AS POTENT PV ANOMALY
ACRS THE PLAINS EJECTS NEWD THROUGH MN IN THE AFTN. WHILE THIS TAF
FCST PD IS XPCD TO REMAIN DRY...INCREASING CHCS FOR TSRA AND
ASSOCD/MVFR CONDS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS LT FRI AFTN WHICH WILL
BE ADDRESSED IN LTR ISSUANCES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 281454
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1054 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL PASS THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH IT. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE
MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY DRY/FAIR WX EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH STABLE/LESS
HUMID AIR IN PLACE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING ESE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
IN ADVANCE OF A ROCKIES PV ANOMALY THAT WILL SLOWLY EJECT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA OF DEEPER
MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS WNW OF THE FA BY
TONIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO SURVIVE INTO FAR NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA
REGIME ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF DEEPENING SW FLOW.
OTHERWISE...DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE PER WELL TRACKED RUN TO RUN FEATURES. CONTINUED
TO FOCUS ON GREATEST POP/QPF POTENTIAL SAT-SUN. CONTINUE TO CARVE
OUT LESSENED CHANCES ON FRI GIVEN SEQUESTER OF HIGH THETA-E RIBBON
WELL S-W OF REGION...INITIALLY FROM EASTERN NE TO EASTERN KY EARLY
FRI. BETTER KINEMATIC PROFILE ATOP NEWD RETREATING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS HELD WELL UPSTREAM WITH ONLY FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA
ON SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WORTHY OF MID RANGE POPS...TAPERING DRY INTO
NORTHWESTERN OH. MINIMIZED THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN
INITIAL POOR MUCAPE PROFILES. POPS RAMP INTO SATURDAY AS DEEP
CENTRAL ROCKIES CYCLONE WITH STRONG MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAW LIFTS
OUT THROUGH NORTHERN MS VALLEY/WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED
BY OVERTAKING NORTHERN TIER CONUS SHORTWAVE. SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF
ASSOCIATED MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID /ON ORDER OF
20-40M/12 HRS/ ALONG WITH FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
READILY FOSTER DEEP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AMID MODEST SBCAPE IN
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. HIGH/NEAR 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS REGION SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH CONTINUAL
MOISTURE RESUPPLY PER DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST PROFILE.
MULTIPLE/REPETITIVE CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE WITH DEEP 12-14KFT
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WARRANT CONTINUED MENTION OF FLOODING/HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HWO AS WELL AS INTRODUCING TSRA HEAVY RAINFALL
ATTRIBUTE MENTION TO NDFD WEATHER.  SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE
FRONT LIKELY STALLS/BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
SOUTHEAST CWA ON DY4...WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS WITH NW-SE
GRADIENT. PRIOR DISCUSSION ADDRESSED POTENTIAL SEVERE FOR MONDAY AND
CONCUR WITH HEIGHTENED CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT DY5/MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
THROUGH DEVELOPING BROAD LONGWAVE TROF THAT SPREADS THROUGHOUT
WESTERN CANADA/NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS CONUS AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FLATTENS/RETREATS SOUTHWARD. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL/PROBLEMATIC BUT
APPEARS DECENT AT THIS MOMENT AS SHORTWAVE ARTICULATES THROUGH
WI/NORTHERN IL TO WESTERN LOWER PENINSULA AT PEAK HEATING...LEAVING
CWA POISED IN STRONG RIGHT/REAR UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT WITH STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW AFFORDING 40-50 KTS DEEP/0-6KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES.
COLD POOL CONGEALMENT INTO ORGANIZED LINEAR SEGMENTS PER PARALLEL
SHEAR/STORM MOTION VECTORING SUGGESTS HEIGHTENED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. GRADUAL REBUILD OF HEIGHTS SURFACE/ALOFT LENDS STRONG
FAVOR TO PRIOR ESCHEWAL OF CONSENSUS POPS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS AS OF 09Z UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...THANKS TO SOME ADDED MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON/ERIE
IN WEAK NNE FLOW. SATELLITE/HRRR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THIS CLOUD
DECK MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SW INTO FWA THIS MORNING BEFORE MIXING
OUT THANKS TO CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION/DAYTIME HEATING. VFR
OTHERWISE AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEER MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 281454
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1054 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL PASS THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH IT. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE
MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY DRY/FAIR WX EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH STABLE/LESS
HUMID AIR IN PLACE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING ESE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
IN ADVANCE OF A ROCKIES PV ANOMALY THAT WILL SLOWLY EJECT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA OF DEEPER
MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS WNW OF THE FA BY
TONIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO SURVIVE INTO FAR NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA
REGIME ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF DEEPENING SW FLOW.
OTHERWISE...DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE PER WELL TRACKED RUN TO RUN FEATURES. CONTINUED
TO FOCUS ON GREATEST POP/QPF POTENTIAL SAT-SUN. CONTINUE TO CARVE
OUT LESSENED CHANCES ON FRI GIVEN SEQUESTER OF HIGH THETA-E RIBBON
WELL S-W OF REGION...INITIALLY FROM EASTERN NE TO EASTERN KY EARLY
FRI. BETTER KINEMATIC PROFILE ATOP NEWD RETREATING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS HELD WELL UPSTREAM WITH ONLY FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA
ON SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WORTHY OF MID RANGE POPS...TAPERING DRY INTO
NORTHWESTERN OH. MINIMIZED THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN
INITIAL POOR MUCAPE PROFILES. POPS RAMP INTO SATURDAY AS DEEP
CENTRAL ROCKIES CYCLONE WITH STRONG MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAW LIFTS
OUT THROUGH NORTHERN MS VALLEY/WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED
BY OVERTAKING NORTHERN TIER CONUS SHORTWAVE. SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF
ASSOCIATED MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID /ON ORDER OF
20-40M/12 HRS/ ALONG WITH FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
READILY FOSTER DEEP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AMID MODEST SBCAPE IN
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. HIGH/NEAR 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS REGION SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH CONTINUAL
MOISTURE RESUPPLY PER DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST PROFILE.
MULTIPLE/REPETITIVE CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE WITH DEEP 12-14KFT
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WARRANT CONTINUED MENTION OF FLOODING/HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HWO AS WELL AS INTRODUCING TSRA HEAVY RAINFALL
ATTRIBUTE MENTION TO NDFD WEATHER.  SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE
FRONT LIKELY STALLS/BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
SOUTHEAST CWA ON DY4...WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS WITH NW-SE
GRADIENT. PRIOR DISCUSSION ADDRESSED POTENTIAL SEVERE FOR MONDAY AND
CONCUR WITH HEIGHTENED CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT DY5/MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
THROUGH DEVELOPING BROAD LONGWAVE TROF THAT SPREADS THROUGHOUT
WESTERN CANADA/NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS CONUS AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FLATTENS/RETREATS SOUTHWARD. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL/PROBLEMATIC BUT
APPEARS DECENT AT THIS MOMENT AS SHORTWAVE ARTICULATES THROUGH
WI/NORTHERN IL TO WESTERN LOWER PENINSULA AT PEAK HEATING...LEAVING
CWA POISED IN STRONG RIGHT/REAR UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT WITH STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW AFFORDING 40-50 KTS DEEP/0-6KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES.
COLD POOL CONGEALMENT INTO ORGANIZED LINEAR SEGMENTS PER PARALLEL
SHEAR/STORM MOTION VECTORING SUGGESTS HEIGHTENED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. GRADUAL REBUILD OF HEIGHTS SURFACE/ALOFT LENDS STRONG
FAVOR TO PRIOR ESCHEWAL OF CONSENSUS POPS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS AS OF 09Z UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...THANKS TO SOME ADDED MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON/ERIE
IN WEAK NNE FLOW. SATELLITE/HRRR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THIS CLOUD
DECK MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SW INTO FWA THIS MORNING BEFORE MIXING
OUT THANKS TO CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION/DAYTIME HEATING. VFR
OTHERWISE AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEER MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 280929
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
529 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...AND THE
MID 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY DRY/FAIR WX EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH STABLE/LESS
HUMID AIR IN PLACE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING ESE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
IN ADVANCE OF A ROCKIES PV ANOMALY THAT WILL SLOWLY EJECT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA OF DEEPER
MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS WNW OF THE FA BY
TONIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO SURVIVE INTO FAR NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA
REGIME ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF DEEPENING SW FLOW.
OTHERWISE...DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE PER WELL TRACKED RUN TO RUN FEATURES. CONTINUED
TO FOCUS ON GREATEST POP/QPF POTENTIAL SAT-SUN. CONTINUE TO CARVE
OUT LESSENED CHANCES ON FRI GIVEN SEQUESTER OF HIGH THETA-E RIBBON
WELL S-W OF REGION...INITIALLY FROM EASTERN NE TO EASTERN KY EARLY
FRI. BETTER KINEMATIC PROFILE ATOP NEWD RETREATING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS HELD WELL UPSTREAM WITH ONLY FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA
ON SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WORTHY OF MID RANGE POPS...TAPERING DRY INTO
NORTHWESTERN OH. MINIMIZED THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN
INITIAL POOR MUCAPE PROFILES. POPS RAMP INTO SATURDAY AS DEEP
CENTRAL ROCKIES CYCLONE WITH STRONG MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAW LIFTS
OUT THROUGH NORTHERN MS VALLEY/WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED
BY OVERTAKING NORTHERN TIER CONUS SHORTWAVE. SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF
ASSOCIATED MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID /ON ORDER OF
20-40M/12 HRS/ ALONG WITH FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
READILY FOSTER DEEP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AMID MODEST SBCAPE IN
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. HIGH/NEAR 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS REGION SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH CONTINUAL
MOISTURE RESUPPLY PER DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST PROFILE.
MULTIPLE/REPETITIVE CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE WITH DEEP 12-14KFT
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WARRANT CONTINUED MENTION OF FLOODING/HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HWO AS WELL AS INTRODUCING TSRA HEAVY RAINFALL
ATTRIBUTE MENTION TO NDFD WEATHER.  SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE
FRONT LIKELY STALLS/BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
SOUTHEAST CWA ON DY4...WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS WITH NW-SE
GRADIENT. PRIOR DISCUSSION ADDRESSED POTENTIAL SEVERE FOR MONDAY AND
CONCUR WITH HEIGHTENED CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT DY5/MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
THROUGH DEVELOPING BROAD LONGWAVE TROF THAT SPREADS THROUGHOUT
WESTERN CANADA/NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS CONUS AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FLATTENS/RETREATS SOUTHWARD. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL/PROBLEMATIC BUT
APPEARS DECENT AT THIS MOMENT AS SHORTWAVE ARTICULATES THROUGH
WI/NORTHERN IL TO WESTERN LOWER PENINSULA AT PEAK HEATING...LEAVING
CWA POISED IN STRONG RIGHT/REAR UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT WITH STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW AFFORDING 40-50 KTS DEEP/0-6KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES.
COLD POOL CONGEALMENT INTO ORGANIZED LINEAR SEGMENTS PER PARALLEL
SHEAR/STORM MOTION VECTORING SUGGESTS HEIGHTENED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. GRADUAL REBUILD OF HEIGHTS SURFACE/ALOFT LENDS STRONG
FAVOR TO PRIOR ESCHEWAL OF CONSENSUS POPS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS AS OF 09Z UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...THANKS TO SOME ADDED MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON/ERIE
IN WEAK NNE FLOW. SATELLITE/HRRR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THIS CLOUD
DECK MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SW INTO FWA THIS MORNING BEFORE MIXING
OUT THANKS TO CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION/DAYTIME HEATING. VFR
OTHERWISE AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEER MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 280929
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
529 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...AND THE
MID 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY DRY/FAIR WX EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH STABLE/LESS
HUMID AIR IN PLACE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING ESE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
IN ADVANCE OF A ROCKIES PV ANOMALY THAT WILL SLOWLY EJECT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA OF DEEPER
MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS WNW OF THE FA BY
TONIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO SURVIVE INTO FAR NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA
REGIME ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF DEEPENING SW FLOW.
OTHERWISE...DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE PER WELL TRACKED RUN TO RUN FEATURES. CONTINUED
TO FOCUS ON GREATEST POP/QPF POTENTIAL SAT-SUN. CONTINUE TO CARVE
OUT LESSENED CHANCES ON FRI GIVEN SEQUESTER OF HIGH THETA-E RIBBON
WELL S-W OF REGION...INITIALLY FROM EASTERN NE TO EASTERN KY EARLY
FRI. BETTER KINEMATIC PROFILE ATOP NEWD RETREATING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS HELD WELL UPSTREAM WITH ONLY FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA
ON SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WORTHY OF MID RANGE POPS...TAPERING DRY INTO
NORTHWESTERN OH. MINIMIZED THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN
INITIAL POOR MUCAPE PROFILES. POPS RAMP INTO SATURDAY AS DEEP
CENTRAL ROCKIES CYCLONE WITH STRONG MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAW LIFTS
OUT THROUGH NORTHERN MS VALLEY/WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED
BY OVERTAKING NORTHERN TIER CONUS SHORTWAVE. SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF
ASSOCIATED MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID /ON ORDER OF
20-40M/12 HRS/ ALONG WITH FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
READILY FOSTER DEEP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AMID MODEST SBCAPE IN
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. HIGH/NEAR 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS REGION SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH CONTINUAL
MOISTURE RESUPPLY PER DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST PROFILE.
MULTIPLE/REPETITIVE CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE WITH DEEP 12-14KFT
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WARRANT CONTINUED MENTION OF FLOODING/HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HWO AS WELL AS INTRODUCING TSRA HEAVY RAINFALL
ATTRIBUTE MENTION TO NDFD WEATHER.  SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE
FRONT LIKELY STALLS/BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
SOUTHEAST CWA ON DY4...WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS WITH NW-SE
GRADIENT. PRIOR DISCUSSION ADDRESSED POTENTIAL SEVERE FOR MONDAY AND
CONCUR WITH HEIGHTENED CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT DY5/MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
THROUGH DEVELOPING BROAD LONGWAVE TROF THAT SPREADS THROUGHOUT
WESTERN CANADA/NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS CONUS AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FLATTENS/RETREATS SOUTHWARD. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL/PROBLEMATIC BUT
APPEARS DECENT AT THIS MOMENT AS SHORTWAVE ARTICULATES THROUGH
WI/NORTHERN IL TO WESTERN LOWER PENINSULA AT PEAK HEATING...LEAVING
CWA POISED IN STRONG RIGHT/REAR UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT WITH STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW AFFORDING 40-50 KTS DEEP/0-6KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES.
COLD POOL CONGEALMENT INTO ORGANIZED LINEAR SEGMENTS PER PARALLEL
SHEAR/STORM MOTION VECTORING SUGGESTS HEIGHTENED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. GRADUAL REBUILD OF HEIGHTS SURFACE/ALOFT LENDS STRONG
FAVOR TO PRIOR ESCHEWAL OF CONSENSUS POPS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS AS OF 09Z UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...THANKS TO SOME ADDED MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON/ERIE
IN WEAK NNE FLOW. SATELLITE/HRRR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THIS CLOUD
DECK MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SW INTO FWA THIS MORNING BEFORE MIXING
OUT THANKS TO CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION/DAYTIME HEATING. VFR
OTHERWISE AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEER MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 280836
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
436 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...AND THE
MID 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY DRY/FAIR WX EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH STABLE/LESS
HUMID AIR IN PLACE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING ESE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
IN ADVANCE OF A ROCKIES PV ANOMALY THAT WILL SLOWLY EJECT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA OF DEEPER
MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS WNW OF THE FA BY
TONIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO SURVIVE INTO FAR NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA
REGIME ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF DEEPENING SW FLOW.
OTHERWISE...DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE PER WELL TRACKED RUN TO RUN FEATURES. CONTINUED
TO FOCUS ON GREATEST POP/QPF POTENTIAL SAT-SUN. CONTINUE TO CARVE
OUT LESSENED CHANCES ON FRI GIVEN SEQUESTER OF HIGH THETA-E RIBBON
WELL S-W OF REGION...INITIALLY FROM EASTERN NE TO EASTERN KY EARLY
FRI. BETTER KINEMATIC PROFILE ATOP NEWD RETREATING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS HELD WELL UPSTREAM WITH ONLY FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA
ON SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WORTHY OF MID RANGE POPS...TAPERING DRY INTO
NORTHWESTERN OH. MINIMIZED THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN
INITIAL POOR MUCAPE PROFILES. POPS RAMP INTO SATURDAY AS DEEP
CENTRAL ROCKIES CYCLONE WITH STRONG MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAW LIFTS
OUT THROUGH NORTHERN MS VALLEY/WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED
BY OVERTAKING NORTHERN TIER CONUS SHORTWAVE. SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF
ASSOCIATED MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID /ON ORDER OF
20-40M/12 HRS/ ALONG WITH FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
READILY FOSTER DEEP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AMID MODEST SBCAPE IN
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. HIGH/NEAR 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS REGION SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH CONTINUAL
MOISTURE RESUPPLY PER DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST PROFILE.
MULTIPLE/REPETITIVE CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE WITH DEEP 12-14KFT
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WARRANT CONTINUED MENTION OF FLOODING/HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HWO AS WELL AS INTRODUCING TSRA HEAVY RAINFALL
ATTRIBUTE MENTION TO NDFD WEATHER.  SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE
FRONT LIKELY STALLS/BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
SOUTHEAST CWA ON DY4...WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS WITH NW-SE
GRADIENT. PRIOR DISCUSSION ADDRESSED POTENTIAL SEVERE FOR MONDAY AND
CONCUR WITH HEIGHTENED CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT DY5/MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
THROUGH DEVELOPING BROAD LONGWAVE TROF THAT SPREADS THROUGHOUT
WESTERN CANADA/NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS CONUS AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FLATTENS/RETREATS SOUTHWARD. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL/PROBLEMATIC BUT
APPEARS DECENT AT THIS MOMENT AS SHORTWAVE ARTICULATES THROUGH
WI/NORTHERN IL TO WESTERN LOWER PENINSULA AT PEAK HEATING...LEAVING
CWA POISED IN STRONG RIGHT/REAR UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT WITH STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW AFFORDING 40-50 KTS DEEP/0-6KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES.
COLD POOL CONGEALMENT INTO ORGANIZED LINEAR SEGMENTS PER PARALLEL
SHEAR/STORM MOTION VECTORING SUGGESTS HEIGHTENED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. GRADUAL REBUILD OF HEIGHTS SURFACE/ALOFT LENDS STRONG
FAVOR TO PRIOR ESCHEWAL OF CONSENSUS POPS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER LAKES. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
NEAR DAYBREAK AT FWA WHERE MVFR STRATUS/FOG MAY DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CIRRUS CANOPY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BKN-
OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 280836
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
436 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...AND THE
MID 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY DRY/FAIR WX EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH STABLE/LESS
HUMID AIR IN PLACE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING ESE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
IN ADVANCE OF A ROCKIES PV ANOMALY THAT WILL SLOWLY EJECT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA OF DEEPER
MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS WNW OF THE FA BY
TONIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO SURVIVE INTO FAR NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA
REGIME ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF DEEPENING SW FLOW.
OTHERWISE...DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE PER WELL TRACKED RUN TO RUN FEATURES. CONTINUED
TO FOCUS ON GREATEST POP/QPF POTENTIAL SAT-SUN. CONTINUE TO CARVE
OUT LESSENED CHANCES ON FRI GIVEN SEQUESTER OF HIGH THETA-E RIBBON
WELL S-W OF REGION...INITIALLY FROM EASTERN NE TO EASTERN KY EARLY
FRI. BETTER KINEMATIC PROFILE ATOP NEWD RETREATING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS HELD WELL UPSTREAM WITH ONLY FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA
ON SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WORTHY OF MID RANGE POPS...TAPERING DRY INTO
NORTHWESTERN OH. MINIMIZED THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN
INITIAL POOR MUCAPE PROFILES. POPS RAMP INTO SATURDAY AS DEEP
CENTRAL ROCKIES CYCLONE WITH STRONG MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAW LIFTS
OUT THROUGH NORTHERN MS VALLEY/WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED
BY OVERTAKING NORTHERN TIER CONUS SHORTWAVE. SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF
ASSOCIATED MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID /ON ORDER OF
20-40M/12 HRS/ ALONG WITH FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
READILY FOSTER DEEP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AMID MODEST SBCAPE IN
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. HIGH/NEAR 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS REGION SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH CONTINUAL
MOISTURE RESUPPLY PER DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST PROFILE.
MULTIPLE/REPETITIVE CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE WITH DEEP 12-14KFT
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WARRANT CONTINUED MENTION OF FLOODING/HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HWO AS WELL AS INTRODUCING TSRA HEAVY RAINFALL
ATTRIBUTE MENTION TO NDFD WEATHER.  SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE
FRONT LIKELY STALLS/BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
SOUTHEAST CWA ON DY4...WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS WITH NW-SE
GRADIENT. PRIOR DISCUSSION ADDRESSED POTENTIAL SEVERE FOR MONDAY AND
CONCUR WITH HEIGHTENED CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT DY5/MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
THROUGH DEVELOPING BROAD LONGWAVE TROF THAT SPREADS THROUGHOUT
WESTERN CANADA/NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS CONUS AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FLATTENS/RETREATS SOUTHWARD. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL/PROBLEMATIC BUT
APPEARS DECENT AT THIS MOMENT AS SHORTWAVE ARTICULATES THROUGH
WI/NORTHERN IL TO WESTERN LOWER PENINSULA AT PEAK HEATING...LEAVING
CWA POISED IN STRONG RIGHT/REAR UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT WITH STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW AFFORDING 40-50 KTS DEEP/0-6KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES.
COLD POOL CONGEALMENT INTO ORGANIZED LINEAR SEGMENTS PER PARALLEL
SHEAR/STORM MOTION VECTORING SUGGESTS HEIGHTENED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. GRADUAL REBUILD OF HEIGHTS SURFACE/ALOFT LENDS STRONG
FAVOR TO PRIOR ESCHEWAL OF CONSENSUS POPS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER LAKES. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
NEAR DAYBREAK AT FWA WHERE MVFR STRATUS/FOG MAY DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CIRRUS CANOPY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BKN-
OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 280450
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...AND THE
MID 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

TRANQUIL WX XPCD THIS PD AS HIGH PRES BLDS THROUGH THE ERN LAKES.
N/NERLY LL FLW WILL CONT TO ADVT IN MUCH DRIER AIR W/SFC TDS FALLING
IN THE 50S TONIGHT. WILL TWEAK TEMPS OVERNIGHT A BIT HWVR IN LIGHT
OF UPSTREAM EWD SPILLAGE OF MID/HIGH CLDS. OTRWS PLEASANT WX XPCD TO
CONT ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A 500MB RIDGE EXPANDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER
LOWER MI AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE
DRIFTING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.

MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TODAY WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING A SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY...THE CWA REMAINS UNDER THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE FOCUSES ALONG AN AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
AS THE CENTER OF WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER MN/WI/IOWA FRIDAY
MORNING. THINK THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SFC LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 310K SFC AND 1-2K J/KG OF MUCAPE EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWER/T STORM DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO ONTARIO. BEST FORCING/PER
850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 305K/
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME. KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS IN AS WELL GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS SUGGEST UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS FAR AS
SEVERE CHANCES THINKING THEY WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN WEAK 0-6
KM SHEAR...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS MORE SIGNIFICANT.
WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...AND CORFIDI VECTORS ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT AFT/SAT EVE COULD
SEE FLOODING PROBLEMS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA.

SUNDAY NIGHT A BRIEF RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...A MORE POTENT
TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER MINNESOTA.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 305-310K ARE IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING...SO HAVE KEPT THE GOING
HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. STORMS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE
AND 30-50 KTS 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. KEPT CONSENSUS
CHANCE POPS IN FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING
WITH THE EXITING FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY TUESDAY EVENING UNDER RELATIVELY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT...AND WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STRONG...SO
PULLED CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER LAKES. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
NEAR DAYBREAK AT FWA WHERE MVFR STRATUS/FOG MAY DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CIRRUS CANOPY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BKN-
OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 280450
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...AND THE
MID 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

TRANQUIL WX XPCD THIS PD AS HIGH PRES BLDS THROUGH THE ERN LAKES.
N/NERLY LL FLW WILL CONT TO ADVT IN MUCH DRIER AIR W/SFC TDS FALLING
IN THE 50S TONIGHT. WILL TWEAK TEMPS OVERNIGHT A BIT HWVR IN LIGHT
OF UPSTREAM EWD SPILLAGE OF MID/HIGH CLDS. OTRWS PLEASANT WX XPCD TO
CONT ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A 500MB RIDGE EXPANDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER
LOWER MI AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE
DRIFTING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.

MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TODAY WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING A SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY...THE CWA REMAINS UNDER THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE FOCUSES ALONG AN AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
AS THE CENTER OF WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER MN/WI/IOWA FRIDAY
MORNING. THINK THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SFC LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 310K SFC AND 1-2K J/KG OF MUCAPE EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWER/T STORM DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO ONTARIO. BEST FORCING/PER
850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 305K/
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME. KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS IN AS WELL GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS SUGGEST UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS FAR AS
SEVERE CHANCES THINKING THEY WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN WEAK 0-6
KM SHEAR...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS MORE SIGNIFICANT.
WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...AND CORFIDI VECTORS ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT AFT/SAT EVE COULD
SEE FLOODING PROBLEMS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA.

SUNDAY NIGHT A BRIEF RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...A MORE POTENT
TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER MINNESOTA.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 305-310K ARE IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING...SO HAVE KEPT THE GOING
HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. STORMS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE
AND 30-50 KTS 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. KEPT CONSENSUS
CHANCE POPS IN FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING
WITH THE EXITING FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY TUESDAY EVENING UNDER RELATIVELY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT...AND WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STRONG...SO
PULLED CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER LAKES. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
NEAR DAYBREAK AT FWA WHERE MVFR STRATUS/FOG MAY DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CIRRUS CANOPY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BKN-
OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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