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000
FXUS63 KIWX 112039
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
339 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
GENERALLY DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY, LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE NEAR 10 WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVG SE INTO THE OH VALLEY TODAY PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AND BACKING WINDS WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH THE SCT
LAKE EFFECT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES EARLY THIS
EVENING. WK SHRTWV TOPPING WRN RIDGE TODAY WILL DIVE RAPIDLY SE TO
THE LWR OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY EVE. EXPECT INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES WHICH COMBINED WITH WK WAA SHOULD LIMIT TEMP
FALLS OVERNIGHT.

SECOND STRONGER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC CDFNT WILL DROP SSE
ACROSS THE GRTLKS FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SNOW SHOWERS WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE NW WHERE THERE WILL BE
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE, PRBLY LEADING TO
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW WHERE CURRENT SNOW
PACK IS DEEPER AND MORE NEW SNOWFALL EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE L20S WITH TEMPS PSBLY FALLING OFF A BIT DURING THE AFTN AS CAA
STRENGTHENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

ANOTHER ARCTIC ONSLAUGHT AS STRONG SWD DROP FM POLAR EXTENSION OVER
CENTRAL HUDSON REACHES FAR SWRN QUEBEC/LK ONT/UPSTATE NY BY 12 UTC
SAT. RAPID LES RESPONSE ANTICIPATED AND LIKELY PEAKING 00-06 UTC SAT
AS LK INDUCED PARAMETERS PEAK WITH EQL TOPPING 10KFT AND CAPE VALUES
TO 600-650 J/KG WITH LWR 20C LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS. WITH TIME PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES TRANSFER TO NEW ENGLAND COASTAL SYSTEM BY 12
UTC SAT...LARGELY SHEARING OUT WRN EXTENSION OF LAKE AGGREGATE TROF.
THIS ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LOW CP BULK MOISTURE AND COMMENSURATE
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH AND SHALLOW DGZ WITH POOR LEVEL OF
SUPERSATURATION AND MAJORITY OF DEPTH IN SFC TO CLOUD BASE WITH
SUPERSATURATION ABOVE DGZ FOR INTRODUCTIONS OF COLUMNS AND SMALL
HEXAGONAL PLATES TO LEND INCREASINGLY LOWER SLR WITH TIME THROUGH
END OF ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT. STILL AMOUNT OF NEW SNOW ATOP
SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK TO AFFORD BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL AND COLD
AIRMASS SUPPORTING MIN WIND CHILLS -5 TO -10 DURING LATTER PART OF
LES SNOW EVENT FOR A MULTI HAZARD ADVISORY. UNLIKE THE LAST
SUBSTANTIAL LONG DURATION LES EVENT HEIGHTS REBUILD AS ARCTIC
SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY ENVELOPES UPPER GREAT LAKES SQUELCHING
RESPONSE LATE SAT AFTN/EVE. THEREAFTER MINOR WAVES FOR LOW POPS
ASSOCCD WITH POSSIBLE WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS DYS4-6 FOLLOWED BY
EXPECTED MINOR LES TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS ERN CONUS TROF DEEPENS AND
DRIVES APPALACHIAN TO NEW ENGLAND OR A NEAR COASTAL SYSTEM AROUND
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN INTENSIFICATION OF LAKE EFFECT -SHSN
EARLY THIS AFTN. OCNL BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO IFR AT SBN AND
MVFR AT FWA EXPECTED TO CONT THROUGH LATE AFTN. -SHSN SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AS A RESULT OF
LOWERING INVERSION ALOFT AND BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT SHRTWV DROPPING SE FM THE NRN
PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRDLY LOWERING HIGH/MID CLOUD DECK.
ANOTHER SHRTWV DROPPING SSE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SFC ARCTIC CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WRN GRTLKS FRIDAY, LIKELY
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT SNOW AND INCRSG WINDS WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS
LOWERING AT LEAST TO MVFR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY TO 4 PM
     EST /3 PM CST/ SATURDAY FOR INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 112039
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
339 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
GENERALLY DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY, LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE NEAR 10 WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVG SE INTO THE OH VALLEY TODAY PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AND BACKING WINDS WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH THE SCT
LAKE EFFECT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES EARLY THIS
EVENING. WK SHRTWV TOPPING WRN RIDGE TODAY WILL DIVE RAPIDLY SE TO
THE LWR OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY EVE. EXPECT INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES WHICH COMBINED WITH WK WAA SHOULD LIMIT TEMP
FALLS OVERNIGHT.

SECOND STRONGER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC CDFNT WILL DROP SSE
ACROSS THE GRTLKS FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SNOW SHOWERS WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE NW WHERE THERE WILL BE
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE, PRBLY LEADING TO
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW WHERE CURRENT SNOW
PACK IS DEEPER AND MORE NEW SNOWFALL EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE L20S WITH TEMPS PSBLY FALLING OFF A BIT DURING THE AFTN AS CAA
STRENGTHENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

ANOTHER ARCTIC ONSLAUGHT AS STRONG SWD DROP FM POLAR EXTENSION OVER
CENTRAL HUDSON REACHES FAR SWRN QUEBEC/LK ONT/UPSTATE NY BY 12 UTC
SAT. RAPID LES RESPONSE ANTICIPATED AND LIKELY PEAKING 00-06 UTC SAT
AS LK INDUCED PARAMETERS PEAK WITH EQL TOPPING 10KFT AND CAPE VALUES
TO 600-650 J/KG WITH LWR 20C LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS. WITH TIME PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES TRANSFER TO NEW ENGLAND COASTAL SYSTEM BY 12
UTC SAT...LARGELY SHEARING OUT WRN EXTENSION OF LAKE AGGREGATE TROF.
THIS ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LOW CP BULK MOISTURE AND COMMENSURATE
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH AND SHALLOW DGZ WITH POOR LEVEL OF
SUPERSATURATION AND MAJORITY OF DEPTH IN SFC TO CLOUD BASE WITH
SUPERSATURATION ABOVE DGZ FOR INTRODUCTIONS OF COLUMNS AND SMALL
HEXAGONAL PLATES TO LEND INCREASINGLY LOWER SLR WITH TIME THROUGH
END OF ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT. STILL AMOUNT OF NEW SNOW ATOP
SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK TO AFFORD BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL AND COLD
AIRMASS SUPPORTING MIN WIND CHILLS -5 TO -10 DURING LATTER PART OF
LES SNOW EVENT FOR A MULTI HAZARD ADVISORY. UNLIKE THE LAST
SUBSTANTIAL LONG DURATION LES EVENT HEIGHTS REBUILD AS ARCTIC
SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY ENVELOPES UPPER GREAT LAKES SQUELCHING
RESPONSE LATE SAT AFTN/EVE. THEREAFTER MINOR WAVES FOR LOW POPS
ASSOCCD WITH POSSIBLE WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS DYS4-6 FOLLOWED BY
EXPECTED MINOR LES TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS ERN CONUS TROF DEEPENS AND
DRIVES APPALACHIAN TO NEW ENGLAND OR A NEAR COASTAL SYSTEM AROUND
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN INTENSIFICATION OF LAKE EFFECT -SHSN
EARLY THIS AFTN. OCNL BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO IFR AT SBN AND
MVFR AT FWA EXPECTED TO CONT THROUGH LATE AFTN. -SHSN SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AS A RESULT OF
LOWERING INVERSION ALOFT AND BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT SHRTWV DROPPING SE FM THE NRN
PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRDLY LOWERING HIGH/MID CLOUD DECK.
ANOTHER SHRTWV DROPPING SSE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SFC ARCTIC CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WRN GRTLKS FRIDAY, LIKELY
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT SNOW AND INCRSG WINDS WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS
LOWERING AT LEAST TO MVFR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY TO 4 PM
     EST /3 PM CST/ SATURDAY FOR INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 112039
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
339 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
GENERALLY DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY, LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE NEAR 10 WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVG SE INTO THE OH VALLEY TODAY PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AND BACKING WINDS WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH THE SCT
LAKE EFFECT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES EARLY THIS
EVENING. WK SHRTWV TOPPING WRN RIDGE TODAY WILL DIVE RAPIDLY SE TO
THE LWR OH VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY EVE. EXPECT INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES WHICH COMBINED WITH WK WAA SHOULD LIMIT TEMP
FALLS OVERNIGHT.

SECOND STRONGER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC CDFNT WILL DROP SSE
ACROSS THE GRTLKS FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SNOW SHOWERS WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE NW WHERE THERE WILL BE
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE, PRBLY LEADING TO
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW WHERE CURRENT SNOW
PACK IS DEEPER AND MORE NEW SNOWFALL EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE L20S WITH TEMPS PSBLY FALLING OFF A BIT DURING THE AFTN AS CAA
STRENGTHENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

ANOTHER ARCTIC ONSLAUGHT AS STRONG SWD DROP FM POLAR EXTENSION OVER
CENTRAL HUDSON REACHES FAR SWRN QUEBEC/LK ONT/UPSTATE NY BY 12 UTC
SAT. RAPID LES RESPONSE ANTICIPATED AND LIKELY PEAKING 00-06 UTC SAT
AS LK INDUCED PARAMETERS PEAK WITH EQL TOPPING 10KFT AND CAPE VALUES
TO 600-650 J/KG WITH LWR 20C LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS. WITH TIME PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW UNDERGOES TRANSFER TO NEW ENGLAND COASTAL SYSTEM BY 12
UTC SAT...LARGELY SHEARING OUT WRN EXTENSION OF LAKE AGGREGATE TROF.
THIS ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LOW CP BULK MOISTURE AND COMMENSURATE
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH AND SHALLOW DGZ WITH POOR LEVEL OF
SUPERSATURATION AND MAJORITY OF DEPTH IN SFC TO CLOUD BASE WITH
SUPERSATURATION ABOVE DGZ FOR INTRODUCTIONS OF COLUMNS AND SMALL
HEXAGONAL PLATES TO LEND INCREASINGLY LOWER SLR WITH TIME THROUGH
END OF ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT. STILL AMOUNT OF NEW SNOW ATOP
SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK TO AFFORD BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL AND COLD
AIRMASS SUPPORTING MIN WIND CHILLS -5 TO -10 DURING LATTER PART OF
LES SNOW EVENT FOR A MULTI HAZARD ADVISORY. UNLIKE THE LAST
SUBSTANTIAL LONG DURATION LES EVENT HEIGHTS REBUILD AS ARCTIC
SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY ENVELOPES UPPER GREAT LAKES SQUELCHING
RESPONSE LATE SAT AFTN/EVE. THEREAFTER MINOR WAVES FOR LOW POPS
ASSOCCD WITH POSSIBLE WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS DYS4-6 FOLLOWED BY
EXPECTED MINOR LES TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS ERN CONUS TROF DEEPENS AND
DRIVES APPALACHIAN TO NEW ENGLAND OR A NEAR COASTAL SYSTEM AROUND
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN INTENSIFICATION OF LAKE EFFECT -SHSN
EARLY THIS AFTN. OCNL BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO IFR AT SBN AND
MVFR AT FWA EXPECTED TO CONT THROUGH LATE AFTN. -SHSN SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AS A RESULT OF
LOWERING INVERSION ALOFT AND BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT SHRTWV DROPPING SE FM THE NRN
PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRDLY LOWERING HIGH/MID CLOUD DECK.
ANOTHER SHRTWV DROPPING SSE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SFC ARCTIC CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WRN GRTLKS FRIDAY, LIKELY
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT SNOW AND INCRSG WINDS WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS
LOWERING AT LEAST TO MVFR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ FRIDAY TO 4 PM
     EST /3 PM CST/ SATURDAY FOR INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 111744
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1244 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF ROUTE 30. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

WNW FLOW LE MULTIBANDS WILL PERSIST FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF US 30
IN IN/MI TODAY GIVEN MODERATE LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE WITH TIME AS
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND BACKING FLOW LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS TO
NEAR 4 KFT BY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RANGE
BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND 2 INCHES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH ROADS
LIKELY SNOW COVERED/SLICK IN THE ADVISORY AREA THIS MORNING.
SHOULD ACTUALLY SEE A DIURNAL RAMP UP (LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON) IN
SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FARTHER INLAND AS LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN INTO CLOUD LAYER/DGZ. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS. COLD OTHERWISE WITH TEMPS 10-15F
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND 5-10F BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING A
RENEWED VIGOR TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENSION OF POLAR
VORTEX WILL DIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON PERIPHERY OF VERY COLD AIR WITH SIBERIAN
ORIGINS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LOCALLY FRIDAY ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR. POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH
QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH MEASURABLE PCPN WILL ACTUALLY FALL.
BETTER CHANCES NEAR THE BIG LAKE WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP RATHER QUICKLY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AND COLD WEDGE
DEEPENS WILL SEE EXPANSION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUME INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
DGZ WILL LOWER CONSIDERABLY WITH VERY COLD AIRMASS AS 850MB TEMPS
APPROACH -25C. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER PART OF DGZ SATURATED
WITH GOOD LIFT BUT LOTS OF PLATES AND NEEDLE FLAKES SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL FLAKE SIZE AND ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY DESPITE EXTREME
INSTABILITY WITH LARGE DELTA T VALUES. POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS
FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH.

REMAINDER OF LONG TERM FORECAST BASICALLY UNTOUCHED FROM SUPERBLEND
INIT WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH TIMING
AND LOCATION OF WAVES AND DETAILS FROM RUN TO RUN SO BROAD BRUSH LOW
CHANCE POPS. WILL SEE GRADUAL WARM UP AS ARCTIC AIR RETREATS AND
PCPN TYPE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN INTENSIFICATION OF LAKE EFFECT -SHSN
EARLY THIS AFTN. OCNL BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO IFR AT SBN AND
MVFR AT FWA EXPECTED TO CONT THROUGH LATE AFTN. -SHSN SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AS A RESULT OF
LOWERING INVERSION ALOFT AND BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT SHRTWV DROPPING SE FM THE NRN
PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRDLY LOWERING HIGH/MID CLOUD DECK.
ANOTHER SHRTWV DROPPING SSE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SFC ARCTIC CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WRN GRTLKS FRIDAY, LIKELY
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT SNOW AND INCRSG WINDS WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS
LOWERING AT LEAST TO MVFR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 111744
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1244 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF ROUTE 30. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

WNW FLOW LE MULTIBANDS WILL PERSIST FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF US 30
IN IN/MI TODAY GIVEN MODERATE LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE WITH TIME AS
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND BACKING FLOW LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS TO
NEAR 4 KFT BY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RANGE
BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND 2 INCHES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH ROADS
LIKELY SNOW COVERED/SLICK IN THE ADVISORY AREA THIS MORNING.
SHOULD ACTUALLY SEE A DIURNAL RAMP UP (LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON) IN
SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FARTHER INLAND AS LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN INTO CLOUD LAYER/DGZ. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS. COLD OTHERWISE WITH TEMPS 10-15F
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND 5-10F BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING A
RENEWED VIGOR TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENSION OF POLAR
VORTEX WILL DIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON PERIPHERY OF VERY COLD AIR WITH SIBERIAN
ORIGINS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LOCALLY FRIDAY ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR. POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH
QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH MEASURABLE PCPN WILL ACTUALLY FALL.
BETTER CHANCES NEAR THE BIG LAKE WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP RATHER QUICKLY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AND COLD WEDGE
DEEPENS WILL SEE EXPANSION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUME INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
DGZ WILL LOWER CONSIDERABLY WITH VERY COLD AIRMASS AS 850MB TEMPS
APPROACH -25C. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER PART OF DGZ SATURATED
WITH GOOD LIFT BUT LOTS OF PLATES AND NEEDLE FLAKES SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL FLAKE SIZE AND ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY DESPITE EXTREME
INSTABILITY WITH LARGE DELTA T VALUES. POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS
FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH.

REMAINDER OF LONG TERM FORECAST BASICALLY UNTOUCHED FROM SUPERBLEND
INIT WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH TIMING
AND LOCATION OF WAVES AND DETAILS FROM RUN TO RUN SO BROAD BRUSH LOW
CHANCE POPS. WILL SEE GRADUAL WARM UP AS ARCTIC AIR RETREATS AND
PCPN TYPE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN INTENSIFICATION OF LAKE EFFECT -SHSN
EARLY THIS AFTN. OCNL BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO IFR AT SBN AND
MVFR AT FWA EXPECTED TO CONT THROUGH LATE AFTN. -SHSN SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AS A RESULT OF
LOWERING INVERSION ALOFT AND BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT SHRTWV DROPPING SE FM THE NRN
PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRDLY LOWERING HIGH/MID CLOUD DECK.
ANOTHER SHRTWV DROPPING SSE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SFC ARCTIC CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WRN GRTLKS FRIDAY, LIKELY
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT SNOW AND INCRSG WINDS WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS
LOWERING AT LEAST TO MVFR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 111744
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1244 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF ROUTE 30. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

WNW FLOW LE MULTIBANDS WILL PERSIST FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF US 30
IN IN/MI TODAY GIVEN MODERATE LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE WITH TIME AS
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND BACKING FLOW LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS TO
NEAR 4 KFT BY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RANGE
BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND 2 INCHES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH ROADS
LIKELY SNOW COVERED/SLICK IN THE ADVISORY AREA THIS MORNING.
SHOULD ACTUALLY SEE A DIURNAL RAMP UP (LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON) IN
SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FARTHER INLAND AS LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN INTO CLOUD LAYER/DGZ. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS. COLD OTHERWISE WITH TEMPS 10-15F
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND 5-10F BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING A
RENEWED VIGOR TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENSION OF POLAR
VORTEX WILL DIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON PERIPHERY OF VERY COLD AIR WITH SIBERIAN
ORIGINS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LOCALLY FRIDAY ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR. POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH
QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH MEASURABLE PCPN WILL ACTUALLY FALL.
BETTER CHANCES NEAR THE BIG LAKE WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP RATHER QUICKLY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AND COLD WEDGE
DEEPENS WILL SEE EXPANSION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUME INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
DGZ WILL LOWER CONSIDERABLY WITH VERY COLD AIRMASS AS 850MB TEMPS
APPROACH -25C. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER PART OF DGZ SATURATED
WITH GOOD LIFT BUT LOTS OF PLATES AND NEEDLE FLAKES SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL FLAKE SIZE AND ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY DESPITE EXTREME
INSTABILITY WITH LARGE DELTA T VALUES. POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS
FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH.

REMAINDER OF LONG TERM FORECAST BASICALLY UNTOUCHED FROM SUPERBLEND
INIT WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH TIMING
AND LOCATION OF WAVES AND DETAILS FROM RUN TO RUN SO BROAD BRUSH LOW
CHANCE POPS. WILL SEE GRADUAL WARM UP AS ARCTIC AIR RETREATS AND
PCPN TYPE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN INTENSIFICATION OF LAKE EFFECT -SHSN
EARLY THIS AFTN. OCNL BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO IFR AT SBN AND
MVFR AT FWA EXPECTED TO CONT THROUGH LATE AFTN. -SHSN SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AS A RESULT OF
LOWERING INVERSION ALOFT AND BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT SHRTWV DROPPING SE FM THE NRN
PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRDLY LOWERING HIGH/MID CLOUD DECK.
ANOTHER SHRTWV DROPPING SSE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SFC ARCTIC CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WRN GRTLKS FRIDAY, LIKELY
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT SNOW AND INCRSG WINDS WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS
LOWERING AT LEAST TO MVFR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 111019
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
519 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF US 30. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

WNW FLOW LE MULTIBANDS WILL PERSIST FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF US 30
IN IN/MI TODAY GIVEN MODERATE LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE WITH TIME AS
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND BACKING FLOW LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS TO
NEAR 4 KFT BY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RANGE
BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND 2 INCHES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH ROADS
LIKELY SNOW COVERED/SLICK IN THE ADVISORY AREA THIS MORNING.
SHOULD ACTUALLY SEE A DIURNAL RAMP UP (LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON) IN
SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FARTHER INLAND AS LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN INTO CLOUD LAYER/DGZ. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS. COLD OTHERWISE WITH TEMPS 10-15F
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND 5-10F BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING A
RENEWED VIGOR TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENSION OF POLAR
VORTEX WILL DIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON PERIPHERY OF VERY COLD AIR WITH SIBERIAN
ORIGINS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LOCALLY FRIDAY ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR. POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH
QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH MEASURABLE PCPN WILL ACTUALLY FALL.
BETTER CHANCES NEAR THE BIG LAKE WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP RATHER QUICKLY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AND COLD WEDGE
DEEPENS WILL SEE EXPANSION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUME INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
DGZ WILL LOWER CONSIDERABLY WITH VERY COLD AIRMASS AS 850MB TEMPS
APPROACH -25C. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER PART OF DGZ SATURATED
WITH GOOD LIFT BUT LOTS OF PLATES AND NEEDLE FLAKES SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL FLAKE SIZE AND ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY DESPITE EXTREME
INSTABILITY WITH LARGE DELTA T VALUES. POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS
FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH.

REMAINDER OF LONG TERM FORECAST BASICALLY UNTOUCHED FROM SUPERBLEND
INIT WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH TIMING
AND LOCATION OF WAVES AND DETAILS FROM RUN TO RUN SO BROAD BRUSH LOW
CHANCE POPS. WILL SEE GRADUAL WARM UP AS ARCTIC AIR RETREATS AND
PCPN TYPE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY KSBN WITH
VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS (VIS RANGING VFR TO IFR) THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LESSER IMPACTS EXPECTED AT KFWA BUT
COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH ANY SHSN THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. BACKING/WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW ANY LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
     FOR INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 110830
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF US 30. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

WNW FLOW LE MULTIBANDS WILL PERSIST FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF US 30
IN IN/MI TODAY GIVEN MODERATE LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE WITH TIME AS
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND BACKING FLOW LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS TO
NEAR 4 KFT BY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RANGE
BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND 2 INCHES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH ROADS
LIKELY SNOW COVERED/SLICK IN THE ADVISORY AREA THIS MORNING.
SHOULD ACTUALLY SEE A DIURNAL RAMP UP (LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON) IN
SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FARTHER INLAND AS LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN INTO CLOUD LAYER/DGZ. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS. COLD OTHERWISE WITH TEMPS 10-15F
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND 5-10F BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING A
RENEWED VIGOR TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENSION OF POLAR
VORTEX WILL DIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON PERIPHERY OF VERY COLD AIR WITH SIBERIAN
ORIGINS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LOCALLY FRIDAY ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR. POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH
QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH MEASURABLE PCPN WILL ACTUALLY FALL.
BETTER CHANCES NEAR THE BIG LAKE WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP RATHER QUICKLY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AND COLD WEDGE
DEEPENS WILL SEE EXPANSION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUME INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
DGZ WILL LOWER CONSIDERABLY WITH VERY COLD AIRMASS AS 850MB TEMPS
APPROACH -25C. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER PART OF DGZ SATURATED
WITH GOOD LIFT BUT LOTS OF PLATES AND NEEDLE FLAKES SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL FLAKE SIZE AND ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY DESPITE EXTREME
INSTABILITY WITH LARGE DELTA T VALUES. POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS
FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH.

REMAINDER OF LONG TERM FORECAST BASICALLY UNTOUCHED FROM SUPERBLEND
INIT WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH TIMING
AND LOCATION OF WAVES AND DETAILS FROM RUN TO RUN SO BROAD BRUSH LOW
CHANCE POPS. WILL SEE GRADUAL WARM UP AS ARCTIC AIR RETREATS AND
PCPN TYPE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY KSBN WITH VARIABLE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS (VIS RANGING MVFR TO LIFR) THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LESSER IMPACTS EXPECTED AT KFWA BUT COULD SEE
BRIEF IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH ANY SHSN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
BACKING/WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
     FOR INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 110830
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF US 30. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

WNW FLOW LE MULTIBANDS WILL PERSIST FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF US 30
IN IN/MI TODAY GIVEN MODERATE LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE WITH TIME AS
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND BACKING FLOW LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS TO
NEAR 4 KFT BY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RANGE
BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND 2 INCHES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH ROADS
LIKELY SNOW COVERED/SLICK IN THE ADVISORY AREA THIS MORNING.
SHOULD ACTUALLY SEE A DIURNAL RAMP UP (LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON) IN
SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FARTHER INLAND AS LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN INTO CLOUD LAYER/DGZ. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS. COLD OTHERWISE WITH TEMPS 10-15F
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND 5-10F BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING A
RENEWED VIGOR TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENSION OF POLAR
VORTEX WILL DIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON PERIPHERY OF VERY COLD AIR WITH SIBERIAN
ORIGINS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LOCALLY FRIDAY ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR. POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH
QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH MEASURABLE PCPN WILL ACTUALLY FALL.
BETTER CHANCES NEAR THE BIG LAKE WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP RATHER QUICKLY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AND COLD WEDGE
DEEPENS WILL SEE EXPANSION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUME INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
DGZ WILL LOWER CONSIDERABLY WITH VERY COLD AIRMASS AS 850MB TEMPS
APPROACH -25C. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER PART OF DGZ SATURATED
WITH GOOD LIFT BUT LOTS OF PLATES AND NEEDLE FLAKES SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL FLAKE SIZE AND ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY DESPITE EXTREME
INSTABILITY WITH LARGE DELTA T VALUES. POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS
FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH.

REMAINDER OF LONG TERM FORECAST BASICALLY UNTOUCHED FROM SUPERBLEND
INIT WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH TIMING
AND LOCATION OF WAVES AND DETAILS FROM RUN TO RUN SO BROAD BRUSH LOW
CHANCE POPS. WILL SEE GRADUAL WARM UP AS ARCTIC AIR RETREATS AND
PCPN TYPE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY KSBN WITH VARIABLE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS (VIS RANGING MVFR TO LIFR) THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LESSER IMPACTS EXPECTED AT KFWA BUT COULD SEE
BRIEF IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH ANY SHSN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
BACKING/WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
     FOR INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 110830
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF US 30. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

WNW FLOW LE MULTIBANDS WILL PERSIST FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF US 30
IN IN/MI TODAY GIVEN MODERATE LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE WITH TIME AS
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND BACKING FLOW LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS TO
NEAR 4 KFT BY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RANGE
BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND 2 INCHES IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH ROADS
LIKELY SNOW COVERED/SLICK IN THE ADVISORY AREA THIS MORNING.
SHOULD ACTUALLY SEE A DIURNAL RAMP UP (LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON) IN
SCATTERED FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FARTHER INLAND AS LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN INTO CLOUD LAYER/DGZ. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS. COLD OTHERWISE WITH TEMPS 10-15F
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND 5-10F BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING A
RENEWED VIGOR TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. EXTENSION OF POLAR
VORTEX WILL DIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL BE ON PERIPHERY OF VERY COLD AIR WITH SIBERIAN
ORIGINS. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LOCALLY FRIDAY ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR. POPS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH
QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH MEASURABLE PCPN WILL ACTUALLY FALL.
BETTER CHANCES NEAR THE BIG LAKE WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP RATHER QUICKLY. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AND COLD WEDGE
DEEPENS WILL SEE EXPANSION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUME INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
DGZ WILL LOWER CONSIDERABLY WITH VERY COLD AIRMASS AS 850MB TEMPS
APPROACH -25C. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER PART OF DGZ SATURATED
WITH GOOD LIFT BUT LOTS OF PLATES AND NEEDLE FLAKES SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL FLAKE SIZE AND ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY DESPITE EXTREME
INSTABILITY WITH LARGE DELTA T VALUES. POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS
FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH.

REMAINDER OF LONG TERM FORECAST BASICALLY UNTOUCHED FROM SUPERBLEND
INIT WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH TIMING
AND LOCATION OF WAVES AND DETAILS FROM RUN TO RUN SO BROAD BRUSH LOW
CHANCE POPS. WILL SEE GRADUAL WARM UP AS ARCTIC AIR RETREATS AND
PCPN TYPE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY KSBN WITH VARIABLE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS (VIS RANGING MVFR TO LIFR) THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LESSER IMPACTS EXPECTED AT KFWA BUT COULD SEE
BRIEF IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH ANY SHSN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
BACKING/WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
     FOR INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 110513
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1213 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF US 30. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MODERATE
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY PERSISTING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
HAVE ALLOWED FOR CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT INLAND PENETRATION WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THESE BANDS AT 0130Z FROM THREE RIVERS MI TO
NORTHWEST OF DEFIANCE. THIS BAND ALSO APPEARS TO BE ALIGNED WITH
BETTER LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION. MAIN TWEAK FOR EVENING UPDATE WAS
TO INCREASE ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING MORE PRONOUNCED BANDING. OTHERWISE...WILL
CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE OVERNIGHT.
GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE 06-12Z
TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL DRY AIR MAY ALSO BECOME AN INCREASING FACTOR
TO CONSIDER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS
FORECAST THOUGHTS STILL APPEAR TO BE VALID WITH ABOVE FACTORS
SUPPORTING GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER MORE
SHARPLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NW FLOW AND LAKE INDUCED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DELTA T`S NEAR
20C AND 300-400J/KG CAPE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. LOWERING
INVERSION, DRY AIR ADVECTION, AND BACKING WINDS SHOULD CAUSE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTG THROUGH THE DAY THU. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS TONIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, IN THE 1-3" RANGE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF
THE CWA AND GENERALLY <1" FARTHER INLAND, WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR LESS IN THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA ON THU. THIS SHOULD BRING
THE STORM TOTAL FOR THIS PROLONGED EVENT UP TO AROUND A FOOT IN
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

GRADIENT MIXING AND SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS SW AND NE WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED, AND IN THE 10-15
RANGE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WHICH SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. WK
WAA AND A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THU SHOULD RESULT IN A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

BACKING FLOW AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO STIFFLE LES
PRODUCTION ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY LATE THU/THU NIGHT...
RETREATING NWD INTO MI. WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES TOWARD OHIO
VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY IN TEMPORARY RELAXATION IN SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER AS A STRONG 65N ORIGINATING VORTEX PLUNGES
SSEWD INTO RESPONSE TO HIGH AMPLITUDE CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGING.
MORE ARCTIC FRONTAL FORCED SHSN INTO FRI AFTN FOLLOWED BY RETURN
OF LES. HAVE RAMPED LES POPS SUBSTANTIALLY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH
NEAR 20/LWR 20S DELTA T. LESS REMARKABLE MOISTURE DEPTH AND
THIN/MOSTLY SUB CLOUD DGZ TO AFFORD TO LIKELY KEEP OVERALL
QPF/ACCUMS/SLR IN CHECK...THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR
TARGETED ADV. COLDEST TEMPS SAT NIGHT IN HEART OF 925MB THERMAL
TROF WITH LES RESPONSE QUICKLY WANING AMID DESCENDING INVERSION
HEIGHTS/NRLY VEERING FLOW LIKELY PUSHING LES INTO NWRN IN/NERN IL.
FLATTER MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW INTO MID WEEK TO EMBARQ OF THERMAL
MODERATION ALONG WITH EPISODIC LOW CHC PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY KSBN WITH VARIABLE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS (VIS RANGING MVFR TO LIFR) THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LESSER IMPACTS EXPECTED AT KFWA BUT COULD SEE
BRIEF IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH ANY SHSN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
BACKING/WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 110513
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1213 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF US 30. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MODERATE
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY PERSISTING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
HAVE ALLOWED FOR CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT INLAND PENETRATION WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THESE BANDS AT 0130Z FROM THREE RIVERS MI TO
NORTHWEST OF DEFIANCE. THIS BAND ALSO APPEARS TO BE ALIGNED WITH
BETTER LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION. MAIN TWEAK FOR EVENING UPDATE WAS
TO INCREASE ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING MORE PRONOUNCED BANDING. OTHERWISE...WILL
CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE OVERNIGHT.
GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE 06-12Z
TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL DRY AIR MAY ALSO BECOME AN INCREASING FACTOR
TO CONSIDER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS
FORECAST THOUGHTS STILL APPEAR TO BE VALID WITH ABOVE FACTORS
SUPPORTING GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER MORE
SHARPLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NW FLOW AND LAKE INDUCED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DELTA T`S NEAR
20C AND 300-400J/KG CAPE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. LOWERING
INVERSION, DRY AIR ADVECTION, AND BACKING WINDS SHOULD CAUSE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTG THROUGH THE DAY THU. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS TONIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, IN THE 1-3" RANGE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF
THE CWA AND GENERALLY <1" FARTHER INLAND, WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR LESS IN THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA ON THU. THIS SHOULD BRING
THE STORM TOTAL FOR THIS PROLONGED EVENT UP TO AROUND A FOOT IN
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

GRADIENT MIXING AND SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS SW AND NE WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED, AND IN THE 10-15
RANGE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WHICH SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. WK
WAA AND A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THU SHOULD RESULT IN A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

BACKING FLOW AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO STIFFLE LES
PRODUCTION ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY LATE THU/THU NIGHT...
RETREATING NWD INTO MI. WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES TOWARD OHIO
VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY IN TEMPORARY RELAXATION IN SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER AS A STRONG 65N ORIGINATING VORTEX PLUNGES
SSEWD INTO RESPONSE TO HIGH AMPLITUDE CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGING.
MORE ARCTIC FRONTAL FORCED SHSN INTO FRI AFTN FOLLOWED BY RETURN
OF LES. HAVE RAMPED LES POPS SUBSTANTIALLY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH
NEAR 20/LWR 20S DELTA T. LESS REMARKABLE MOISTURE DEPTH AND
THIN/MOSTLY SUB CLOUD DGZ TO AFFORD TO LIKELY KEEP OVERALL
QPF/ACCUMS/SLR IN CHECK...THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR
TARGETED ADV. COLDEST TEMPS SAT NIGHT IN HEART OF 925MB THERMAL
TROF WITH LES RESPONSE QUICKLY WANING AMID DESCENDING INVERSION
HEIGHTS/NRLY VEERING FLOW LIKELY PUSHING LES INTO NWRN IN/NERN IL.
FLATTER MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW INTO MID WEEK TO EMBARQ OF THERMAL
MODERATION ALONG WITH EPISODIC LOW CHC PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY KSBN WITH VARIABLE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS (VIS RANGING MVFR TO LIFR) THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LESSER IMPACTS EXPECTED AT KFWA BUT COULD SEE
BRIEF IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH ANY SHSN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
BACKING/WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 110513
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1213 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF US 30. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MODERATE
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY PERSISTING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
HAVE ALLOWED FOR CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT INLAND PENETRATION WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THESE BANDS AT 0130Z FROM THREE RIVERS MI TO
NORTHWEST OF DEFIANCE. THIS BAND ALSO APPEARS TO BE ALIGNED WITH
BETTER LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION. MAIN TWEAK FOR EVENING UPDATE WAS
TO INCREASE ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING MORE PRONOUNCED BANDING. OTHERWISE...WILL
CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE OVERNIGHT.
GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE 06-12Z
TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL DRY AIR MAY ALSO BECOME AN INCREASING FACTOR
TO CONSIDER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS
FORECAST THOUGHTS STILL APPEAR TO BE VALID WITH ABOVE FACTORS
SUPPORTING GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER MORE
SHARPLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NW FLOW AND LAKE INDUCED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DELTA T`S NEAR
20C AND 300-400J/KG CAPE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. LOWERING
INVERSION, DRY AIR ADVECTION, AND BACKING WINDS SHOULD CAUSE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTG THROUGH THE DAY THU. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS TONIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, IN THE 1-3" RANGE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF
THE CWA AND GENERALLY <1" FARTHER INLAND, WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR LESS IN THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA ON THU. THIS SHOULD BRING
THE STORM TOTAL FOR THIS PROLONGED EVENT UP TO AROUND A FOOT IN
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

GRADIENT MIXING AND SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS SW AND NE WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED, AND IN THE 10-15
RANGE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WHICH SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. WK
WAA AND A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THU SHOULD RESULT IN A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

BACKING FLOW AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO STIFFLE LES
PRODUCTION ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY LATE THU/THU NIGHT...
RETREATING NWD INTO MI. WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES TOWARD OHIO
VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY IN TEMPORARY RELAXATION IN SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER AS A STRONG 65N ORIGINATING VORTEX PLUNGES
SSEWD INTO RESPONSE TO HIGH AMPLITUDE CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGING.
MORE ARCTIC FRONTAL FORCED SHSN INTO FRI AFTN FOLLOWED BY RETURN
OF LES. HAVE RAMPED LES POPS SUBSTANTIALLY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH
NEAR 20/LWR 20S DELTA T. LESS REMARKABLE MOISTURE DEPTH AND
THIN/MOSTLY SUB CLOUD DGZ TO AFFORD TO LIKELY KEEP OVERALL
QPF/ACCUMS/SLR IN CHECK...THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR
TARGETED ADV. COLDEST TEMPS SAT NIGHT IN HEART OF 925MB THERMAL
TROF WITH LES RESPONSE QUICKLY WANING AMID DESCENDING INVERSION
HEIGHTS/NRLY VEERING FLOW LIKELY PUSHING LES INTO NWRN IN/NERN IL.
FLATTER MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW INTO MID WEEK TO EMBARQ OF THERMAL
MODERATION ALONG WITH EPISODIC LOW CHC PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY KSBN WITH VARIABLE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS (VIS RANGING MVFR TO LIFR) THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LESSER IMPACTS EXPECTED AT KFWA BUT COULD SEE
BRIEF IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH ANY SHSN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
BACKING/WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 110151
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
851 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A COUPLE MORE
INCHES IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS WELL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS NEAR THE
LAKE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
20S. ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MODERATE
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY PERSISTING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
HAVE ALLOWED FOR CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT INLAND PENETRATION WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THESE BANDS AT 0130Z FROM THREE RIVERS MI TO
NORTHWEST OF DEFIANCE. THIS BAND ALSO APPEARS TO BE ALIGNED WITH
BETTER LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION. MAIN TWEAK FOR EVENING UPDATE WAS
TO INCREASE ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING MORE PRONOUNCED BANDING. OTHERWISE...WILL
CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE OVERNIGHT.
GREAT LAKES MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE 06-12Z
TIMEFRAME. MID LEVEL DRY AIR MAY ALSO BECOME AN INCREASING FACTOR
TO CONSIDER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS
FORECAST THOUGHTS STILL APPEAR TO BE VALID WITH ABOVE FACTORS
SUPPORTING GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AS INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER MORE
SHARPLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NW FLOW AND LAKE INDUCED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DELTA T`S NEAR
20C AND 300-400J/KG CAPE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. LOWERING
INVERSION, DRY AIR ADVECTION, AND BACKING WINDS SHOULD CAUSE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTG THROUGH THE DAY THU. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS TONIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, IN THE 1-3" RANGE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF
THE CWA AND GENERALLY <1" FARTHER INLAND, WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR LESS IN THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA ON THU. THIS SHOULD BRING
THE STORM TOTAL FOR THIS PROLONGED EVENT UP TO AROUND A FOOT IN
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

GRADIENT MIXING AND SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS SW AND NE WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED, AND IN THE 10-15
RANGE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WHICH SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. WK
WAA AND A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THU SHOULD RESULT IN A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

BACKING FLOW AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO STIFFLE LES
PRODUCTION ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY LATE THU/THU NIGHT...
RETREATING NWD INTO MI. WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES TOWARD OHIO
VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY IN TEMPORARY RELAXATION IN SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER AS A STRONG 65N ORIGINATING VORTEX PLUNGES
SSEWD INTO RESPONSE TO HIGH AMPLITUDE CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGING.
MORE ARCTIC FRONTAL FORCED SHSN INTO FRI AFTN FOLLOWED BY RETURN
OF LES. HAVE RAMPED LES POPS SUBSTANTIALLY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH
NEAR 20/LWR 20S DELTA T. LESS REMARKABLE MOISTURE DEPTH AND
THIN/MOSTLY SUB CLOUD DGZ TO AFFORD TO LIKELY KEEP OVERALL
QPF/ACCUMS/SLR IN CHECK...THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR
TARGETED ADV. COLDEST TEMPS SAT NIGHT IN HEART OF 925MB THERMAL
TROF WITH LES RESPONSE QUICKLY WANING AMID DESCENDING INVERSION
HEIGHTS/NRLY VEERING FLOW LIKELY PUSHING LES INTO NWRN IN/NERN IL.
FLATTER MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW INTO MID WEEK TO EMBARQ OF THERMAL
MODERATION ALONG WITH EPISODIC LOW CHC PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING AS THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGE. MODERATE LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST THIS FORECAST PERIOD. NOT
EXPECTING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT AS IN THE
PREVIOUS 24 HOUR PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SHEARED VORT MAX SHOULD REACH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT KSBN WITH FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN IFR
AND MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED. MVFR VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT
KFWA EARLY EVENING...WITH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KFWA
LOWER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS BULK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AT TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE AT KSBN. WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD SETTLE
AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 110013
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
713 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A COUPLE MORE
INCHES IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS WELL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS NEAR THE
LAKE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
20S. ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NW FLOW AND LAKE INDUCED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DELTA T`S NEAR
20C AND 300-400J/KG CAPE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. LOWERING
INVERSION, DRY AIR ADVECTION, AND BACKING WINDS SHOULD CAUSE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTG THROUGH THE DAY THU. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS TONIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, IN THE 1-3" RANGE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF
THE CWA AND GENERALLY <1" FARTHER INLAND, WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR LESS IN THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA ON THU. THIS SHOULD BRING
THE STORM TOTAL FOR THIS PROLONGED EVENT UP TO AROUND A FOOT IN
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

GRADIENT MIXING AND SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS SW AND NE WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED, AND IN THE 10-15
RANGE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WHICH SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. WK
WAA AND A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THU SHOULD RESULT IN A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

BACKING FLOW AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO STIFFLE LES
PRODUCTION ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY LATE THU/THU NIGHT...
RETREATING NWD INTO MI. WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES TOWARD OHIO
VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY IN TEMPORARY RELAXATION IN SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER AS A STRONG 65N ORIGINATING VORTEX PLUNGES
SSEWD INTO RESPONSE TO HIGH AMPLITUDE CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGING.
MORE ARCTIC FRONTAL FORCED SHSN INTO FRI AFTN FOLLOWED BY RETURN
OF LES. HAVE RAMPED LES POPS SUBSTANTIALLY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH
NEAR 20/LWR 20S DELTA T. LESS REMARKABLE MOISTURE DEPTH AND
THIN/MOSTLY SUB CLOUD DGZ TO AFFORD TO LIKELY KEEP OVERALL
QPF/ACCUMS/SLR IN CHECK...THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR
TARGETED ADV. COLDEST TEMPS SAT NIGHT IN HEART OF 925MB THERMAL
TROF WITH LES RESPONSE QUICKLY WANING AMID DESCENDING INVERSION
HEIGHTS/NRLY VEERING FLOW LIKELY PUSHING LES INTO NWRN IN/NERN IL.
FLATTER MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW INTO MID WEEK TO EMBARQ OF THERMAL
MODERATION ALONG WITH EPISODIC LOW CHC PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING AS THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGE. MODERATE LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST THIS FORECAST PERIOD. NOT
EXPECTING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT AS IN THE
PREVIOUS 24 HOUR PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SHEARED VORT MAX SHOULD REACH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT KSBN WITH FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN IFR
AND MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED. MVFR VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT
KFWA EARLY EVENING...WITH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KFWA
LOWER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS BULK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AT TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE AT KSBN. WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD SETTLE
AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 110013
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
713 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A COUPLE MORE
INCHES IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS WELL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS NEAR THE
LAKE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
20S. ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NW FLOW AND LAKE INDUCED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DELTA T`S NEAR
20C AND 300-400J/KG CAPE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. LOWERING
INVERSION, DRY AIR ADVECTION, AND BACKING WINDS SHOULD CAUSE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTG THROUGH THE DAY THU. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS TONIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, IN THE 1-3" RANGE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF
THE CWA AND GENERALLY <1" FARTHER INLAND, WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR LESS IN THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA ON THU. THIS SHOULD BRING
THE STORM TOTAL FOR THIS PROLONGED EVENT UP TO AROUND A FOOT IN
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

GRADIENT MIXING AND SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS SW AND NE WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED, AND IN THE 10-15
RANGE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WHICH SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. WK
WAA AND A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THU SHOULD RESULT IN A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

BACKING FLOW AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO STIFFLE LES
PRODUCTION ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY LATE THU/THU NIGHT...
RETREATING NWD INTO MI. WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES TOWARD OHIO
VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY IN TEMPORARY RELAXATION IN SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER AS A STRONG 65N ORIGINATING VORTEX PLUNGES
SSEWD INTO RESPONSE TO HIGH AMPLITUDE CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGING.
MORE ARCTIC FRONTAL FORCED SHSN INTO FRI AFTN FOLLOWED BY RETURN
OF LES. HAVE RAMPED LES POPS SUBSTANTIALLY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH
NEAR 20/LWR 20S DELTA T. LESS REMARKABLE MOISTURE DEPTH AND
THIN/MOSTLY SUB CLOUD DGZ TO AFFORD TO LIKELY KEEP OVERALL
QPF/ACCUMS/SLR IN CHECK...THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR
TARGETED ADV. COLDEST TEMPS SAT NIGHT IN HEART OF 925MB THERMAL
TROF WITH LES RESPONSE QUICKLY WANING AMID DESCENDING INVERSION
HEIGHTS/NRLY VEERING FLOW LIKELY PUSHING LES INTO NWRN IN/NERN IL.
FLATTER MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW INTO MID WEEK TO EMBARQ OF THERMAL
MODERATION ALONG WITH EPISODIC LOW CHC PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING AS THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGE. MODERATE LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST THIS FORECAST PERIOD. NOT
EXPECTING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT AS IN THE
PREVIOUS 24 HOUR PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SHEARED VORT MAX SHOULD REACH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT KSBN WITH FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN IFR
AND MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED. MVFR VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT
KFWA EARLY EVENING...WITH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KFWA
LOWER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS BULK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AT TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE AT KSBN. WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD SETTLE
AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 102047
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
347 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A COUPLE MORE
INCHES IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS WELL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS NEAR THE
LAKE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
20S. ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NW FLOW AND LAKE INDUCED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DELTA T`S NEAR
20C AND 300-400J/KG CAPE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. LOWERING
INVERSION, DRY AIR ADVECTION, AND BACKING WINDS SHOULD CAUSE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTG THROUGH THE DAY THU. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS TONIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, IN THE 1-3" RANGE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF
THE CWA AND GENERALLY <1" FARTHER INLAND, WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR LESS IN THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA ON THU. THIS SHOULD BRING
THE STORM TOTAL FOR THIS PROLONGED EVENT UP TO AROUND A FOOT IN
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

GRADIENT MIXING AND SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS SW AND NE WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED, AND IN THE 10-15
RANGE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WHICH SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. WK
WAA AND A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THU SHOULD RESULT IN A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

BACKING FLOW AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO STIFFLE LES
PRODUCTION ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY LATE THU/THU NIGHT...
RETREATING NWD INTO MI. WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES TOWARD OHIO
VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY IN TEMPORARY RELAXATION IN SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER AS A STRONG 65N ORIGINATING VORTEX PLUNGES
SSEWD INTO RESPONSE TO HIGH AMPLITUDE CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGING.
MORE ARCTIC FRONTAL FORCED SHSN INTO FRI AFTN FOLLOWED BY RETURN
OF LES. HAVE RAMPED LES POPS SUBSTANTIALLY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH
NEAR 20/LWR 20S DELTA T. LESS REMARKABLE MOISTURE DEPTH AND
THIN/MOSTLY SUB CLOUD DGZ TO AFFORD TO LIKELY KEEP OVERALL
QPF/ACCUMS/SLR IN CHECK...THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR
TARGETED ADV. COLDEST TEMPS SAT NIGHT IN HEART OF 925MB THERMAL
TROF WITH LES RESPONSE QUICKLY WANING AMID DESCENDING INVERSION
HEIGHTS/NRLY VEERING FLOW LIKELY PUSHING LES INTO NWRN IN/NERN IL.
FLATTER MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW INTO MID WEEK TO EMBARQ OF THERMAL
MODERATION ALONG WITH EPISODIC LOW CHC PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SHSN ACROSS
NRN INDIANA THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SBN
THIS AFTN/EVE IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS INVERSION LOWERS
WHILE AT FWA PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 101639
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1139 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT
STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS WELL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS NEAR THE
LAKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...

WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WERE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EXTENSIVE LAKE RESPONSE CONTINUES. THAT BEING SAID...ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO 1 OR 2 DOMINANT SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE
GENERALLY REMAINED TRANSITORY. THE FIRST BAND...WAS LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY SE ACROSS MUCH OF ST. JOE COUNTY IN INDIANA
AND INTO PORTIONS OF MARSHALL AND KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES. A SECOND
BAND HAS  SET UP FROM THREE RIVERS MI SE TO NW OF ALBION. LOCAL
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED BRIEFLY TO AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES
WITH LOCATIONS UNDER THE BANDS LIKELY SEEING A QUICK FEW TENTHS TO
ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW.

ARW HAS GENERALLY HANDLED EVOLUTION OF SNOW BANDS THE BEST SO WILL
LEAN SOMEWHAT TOWARDS IT WITH PARTIAL NOD TO NAM. CHALLENGES LIE
TODAY WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF SNOW BANDS...COVERAGE AND EFFECTS OF
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARRIVING FROM WISCONSIN WHERE SFC DEWPTS WERE
DROPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS HAS CUT DOWN THE EXTENT OF SNOW BAND
PRODUCTION WELL OUT INTO THE LAKE BUT OTHER PARAMETERS AND EFFECTS
OF SOON TO DEPART SHORT WAVE ALL HELPING KEEP THINGS GOING. THINK
THAT MANY AREAS WILL STILL SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS IN CURRENT ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING DURING THE DAY BUT
LOCALIZE AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS.

INVERSION HEIGHTS...FETCH AND ALIGNMENT OF DGZ AND BEST OMEGA WILL
ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCTION ONGOING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AS YOU MOVE
FURTHER INLAND. THE NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIKELY
HELP LIMIT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS BUT STILL SHOULD YIELD 1 TO 4
INCHES LOCALLY ACROSS MAINLY THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE W AND SW AS BRIEF
RIDGING SHIFTS THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST. UPPER LEVELS WILL FLATTEN SUBTLY DURING THIS LONG
TERM PERIOD AS NORTH PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN TEMPORARILY FLATTENS WESTERN
RIDGING. HOWEVER...WEAKENING POLAR VORTEX WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LOW
AND A SHOT OF VERY COLD SIBERIAN AIR TO PENETRATE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS BY THIS WEEKEND...SKIMMING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PACIFIC ENERGY TRAILING THIS ARCTIC COLD WILL REINFORCE GREAT LAKES
TROUGHINESS BUT ALSO ALLOW A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MAIN COLD CORE EXITS.

NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES AND PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION OF LAKE EFFECT
REMAIN DIFFICULT AT THESE TIME PERIODS SO CONTINUED WITH BROAD BRUSH
POPS. DID FAVOR ECMWF SLIGHTLY BUT STAYED CLOSE TO OVERALL
SUPERBLEND INIT. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGIONS GIVEN SFC-850MB DELTA T
VALUES IN MID 20S. LITTLE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH ARCTIC AIR AND DGZ
NEAR GROUND LEVEL WILL LIKELY INHIBIT BIG SNOWFALL BUT LONG FETCH
AND PRE-CONDITIONING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING NEXT
FEW DAYS. ECMWF ALSO RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH A SHORT WAVE MONDAY
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SWATH OF SNOW INTO EASTERN AREAS. KEPT
POPS IN THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SHSN ACROSS
NRN INDIANA THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SBN
THIS AFTN/EVE IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS INVERSION LOWERS
WHILE AT FWA PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 101639
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1139 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT
STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS WELL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS NEAR THE
LAKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...

WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WERE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EXTENSIVE LAKE RESPONSE CONTINUES. THAT BEING SAID...ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO 1 OR 2 DOMINANT SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE
GENERALLY REMAINED TRANSITORY. THE FIRST BAND...WAS LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY SE ACROSS MUCH OF ST. JOE COUNTY IN INDIANA
AND INTO PORTIONS OF MARSHALL AND KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES. A SECOND
BAND HAS  SET UP FROM THREE RIVERS MI SE TO NW OF ALBION. LOCAL
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED BRIEFLY TO AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES
WITH LOCATIONS UNDER THE BANDS LIKELY SEEING A QUICK FEW TENTHS TO
ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW.

ARW HAS GENERALLY HANDLED EVOLUTION OF SNOW BANDS THE BEST SO WILL
LEAN SOMEWHAT TOWARDS IT WITH PARTIAL NOD TO NAM. CHALLENGES LIE
TODAY WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF SNOW BANDS...COVERAGE AND EFFECTS OF
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARRIVING FROM WISCONSIN WHERE SFC DEWPTS WERE
DROPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS HAS CUT DOWN THE EXTENT OF SNOW BAND
PRODUCTION WELL OUT INTO THE LAKE BUT OTHER PARAMETERS AND EFFECTS
OF SOON TO DEPART SHORT WAVE ALL HELPING KEEP THINGS GOING. THINK
THAT MANY AREAS WILL STILL SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS IN CURRENT ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING DURING THE DAY BUT
LOCALIZE AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS.

INVERSION HEIGHTS...FETCH AND ALIGNMENT OF DGZ AND BEST OMEGA WILL
ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCTION ONGOING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AS YOU MOVE
FURTHER INLAND. THE NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIKELY
HELP LIMIT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS BUT STILL SHOULD YIELD 1 TO 4
INCHES LOCALLY ACROSS MAINLY THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE W AND SW AS BRIEF
RIDGING SHIFTS THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST. UPPER LEVELS WILL FLATTEN SUBTLY DURING THIS LONG
TERM PERIOD AS NORTH PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN TEMPORARILY FLATTENS WESTERN
RIDGING. HOWEVER...WEAKENING POLAR VORTEX WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LOW
AND A SHOT OF VERY COLD SIBERIAN AIR TO PENETRATE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS BY THIS WEEKEND...SKIMMING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PACIFIC ENERGY TRAILING THIS ARCTIC COLD WILL REINFORCE GREAT LAKES
TROUGHINESS BUT ALSO ALLOW A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MAIN COLD CORE EXITS.

NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES AND PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION OF LAKE EFFECT
REMAIN DIFFICULT AT THESE TIME PERIODS SO CONTINUED WITH BROAD BRUSH
POPS. DID FAVOR ECMWF SLIGHTLY BUT STAYED CLOSE TO OVERALL
SUPERBLEND INIT. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGIONS GIVEN SFC-850MB DELTA T
VALUES IN MID 20S. LITTLE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH ARCTIC AIR AND DGZ
NEAR GROUND LEVEL WILL LIKELY INHIBIT BIG SNOWFALL BUT LONG FETCH
AND PRE-CONDITIONING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING NEXT
FEW DAYS. ECMWF ALSO RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH A SHORT WAVE MONDAY
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SWATH OF SNOW INTO EASTERN AREAS. KEPT
POPS IN THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SHSN ACROSS
NRN INDIANA THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SBN
THIS AFTN/EVE IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS INVERSION LOWERS
WHILE AT FWA PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 101639
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1139 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT
STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS WELL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS NEAR THE
LAKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...

WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WERE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EXTENSIVE LAKE RESPONSE CONTINUES. THAT BEING SAID...ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO 1 OR 2 DOMINANT SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE
GENERALLY REMAINED TRANSITORY. THE FIRST BAND...WAS LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY SE ACROSS MUCH OF ST. JOE COUNTY IN INDIANA
AND INTO PORTIONS OF MARSHALL AND KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES. A SECOND
BAND HAS  SET UP FROM THREE RIVERS MI SE TO NW OF ALBION. LOCAL
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED BRIEFLY TO AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES
WITH LOCATIONS UNDER THE BANDS LIKELY SEEING A QUICK FEW TENTHS TO
ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW.

ARW HAS GENERALLY HANDLED EVOLUTION OF SNOW BANDS THE BEST SO WILL
LEAN SOMEWHAT TOWARDS IT WITH PARTIAL NOD TO NAM. CHALLENGES LIE
TODAY WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF SNOW BANDS...COVERAGE AND EFFECTS OF
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARRIVING FROM WISCONSIN WHERE SFC DEWPTS WERE
DROPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS HAS CUT DOWN THE EXTENT OF SNOW BAND
PRODUCTION WELL OUT INTO THE LAKE BUT OTHER PARAMETERS AND EFFECTS
OF SOON TO DEPART SHORT WAVE ALL HELPING KEEP THINGS GOING. THINK
THAT MANY AREAS WILL STILL SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS IN CURRENT ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING DURING THE DAY BUT
LOCALIZE AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS.

INVERSION HEIGHTS...FETCH AND ALIGNMENT OF DGZ AND BEST OMEGA WILL
ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCTION ONGOING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AS YOU MOVE
FURTHER INLAND. THE NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIKELY
HELP LIMIT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS BUT STILL SHOULD YIELD 1 TO 4
INCHES LOCALLY ACROSS MAINLY THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE W AND SW AS BRIEF
RIDGING SHIFTS THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST. UPPER LEVELS WILL FLATTEN SUBTLY DURING THIS LONG
TERM PERIOD AS NORTH PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN TEMPORARILY FLATTENS WESTERN
RIDGING. HOWEVER...WEAKENING POLAR VORTEX WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LOW
AND A SHOT OF VERY COLD SIBERIAN AIR TO PENETRATE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS BY THIS WEEKEND...SKIMMING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PACIFIC ENERGY TRAILING THIS ARCTIC COLD WILL REINFORCE GREAT LAKES
TROUGHINESS BUT ALSO ALLOW A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MAIN COLD CORE EXITS.

NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES AND PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION OF LAKE EFFECT
REMAIN DIFFICULT AT THESE TIME PERIODS SO CONTINUED WITH BROAD BRUSH
POPS. DID FAVOR ECMWF SLIGHTLY BUT STAYED CLOSE TO OVERALL
SUPERBLEND INIT. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGIONS GIVEN SFC-850MB DELTA T
VALUES IN MID 20S. LITTLE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH ARCTIC AIR AND DGZ
NEAR GROUND LEVEL WILL LIKELY INHIBIT BIG SNOWFALL BUT LONG FETCH
AND PRE-CONDITIONING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING NEXT
FEW DAYS. ECMWF ALSO RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH A SHORT WAVE MONDAY
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SWATH OF SNOW INTO EASTERN AREAS. KEPT
POPS IN THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SHSN ACROSS
NRN INDIANA THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SBN
THIS AFTN/EVE IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS INVERSION LOWERS
WHILE AT FWA PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 101138
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
638 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT
STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS WELL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS
NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...

WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WERE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EXTENSIVE LAKE RESPONSE CONTINUES. THAT BEING SAID...ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO 1 OR 2 DOMINANT SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE
GENERALLY REMAINED TRANSITORY. THE FIRST BAND...WAS LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY SE ACROSS MUCH OF ST. JOE COUNTY IN INDIANA
AND INTO PORTIONS OF MARSHALL AND KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES. A SECOND
BAND HAS  SET UP FROM THREE RIVERS MI SE TO NW OF ALBION. LOCAL
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED BRIEFLY TO AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES
WITH LOCATIONS UNDER THE BANDS LIKELY SEEING A QUICK FEW TENTHS TO
ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW.

ARW HAS GENERALLY HANDLED EVOLUTION OF SNOW BANDS THE BEST SO WILL
LEAN SOMEWHAT TOWARDS IT WITH PARTIAL NOD TO NAM. CHALLENGES LIE
TODAY WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF SNOW BANDS...COVERAGE AND EFFECTS OF
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARRIVING FROM WISCONSIN WHERE SFC DEWPTS WERE
DROPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS HAS CUT DOWN THE EXTENT OF SNOW BAND
PRODUCTION WELL OUT INTO THE LAKE BUT OTHER PARAMETERS AND EFFECTS
OF SOON TO DEPART SHORT WAVE ALL HELPING KEEP THINGS GOING. THINK
THAT MANY AREAS WILL STILL SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS IN CURRENT ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING DURING THE DAY BUT
LOCALIZE AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS.

INVERSION HEIGHTS...FETCH AND ALIGNMENT OF DGZ AND BEST OMEGA WILL
ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCTION ONGOING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AS YOU MOVE
FURTHER INLAND. THE NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIKELY
HELP LIMIT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS BUT STILL SHOULD YIELD 1 TO 4
INCHES LOCALLY ACROSS MAINLY THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE W AND SW AS BRIEF
RIDGING SHIFTS THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST. UPPER LEVELS WILL FLATTEN SUBTLY DURING THIS LONG
TERM PERIOD AS NORTH PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN TEMPORARILY FLATTENS WESTERN
RIDGING. HOWEVER...WEAKENING POLAR VORTEX WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LOW
AND A SHOT OF VERY COLD SIBERIAN AIR TO PENETRATE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS BY THIS WEEKEND...SKIMMING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PACIFIC ENERGY TRAILING THIS ARCTIC COLD WILL REINFORCE GREAT LAKES
TROUGHINESS BUT ALSO ALLOW A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MAIN COLD CORE EXITS.

NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES AND PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION OF LAKE EFFECT
REMAIN DIFFICULT AT THESE TIME PERIODS SO CONTINUED WITH BROAD BRUSH
POPS. DID FAVOR ECMWF SLIGHTLY BUT STAYED CLOSE TO OVERALL
SUPERBLEND INIT. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGIONS GIVEN SFC-850MB DELTA T
VALUES IN MID 20S. LITTLE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH ARCTIC AIR AND DGZ
NEAR GROUND LEVEL WILL LIKELY INHIBIT BIG SNOWFALL BUT LONG FETCH
AND PRE-CONDITIONING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING NEXT
FEW DAYS. ECMWF ALSO RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH A SHORT WAVE MONDAY
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SWATH OF SNOW INTO EASTERN AREAS. KEPT
POPS IN THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST WITH TRANSITORY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
AND CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR OUTSIDE OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
IFR AND LIFR WITHIN HEAVIER BURSTS. PRIMARY FOCUS ON NEXT 6 HOURS
OF TERMINALS WITH WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD. DRIER
AIR UPSTREAM SHOULD HELP LIMIT MOISTURE DEPTH LATER TODAY BUT
TRAJECTORIES AND COLD AIR WILL SUSTAIN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS IN A RATHER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. TRIED TO IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR LATE TODAY AT BOTH TERMINALS BUT WILL
TOTALLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE STRONGER BANDS END UP THROUGH THE
PERIOD. COULD CERTAINLY SEE VFR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY KFWA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 101138
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
638 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT
STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS WELL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS
NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...

WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WERE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EXTENSIVE LAKE RESPONSE CONTINUES. THAT BEING SAID...ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO 1 OR 2 DOMINANT SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE
GENERALLY REMAINED TRANSITORY. THE FIRST BAND...WAS LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY SE ACROSS MUCH OF ST. JOE COUNTY IN INDIANA
AND INTO PORTIONS OF MARSHALL AND KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES. A SECOND
BAND HAS  SET UP FROM THREE RIVERS MI SE TO NW OF ALBION. LOCAL
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED BRIEFLY TO AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES
WITH LOCATIONS UNDER THE BANDS LIKELY SEEING A QUICK FEW TENTHS TO
ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW.

ARW HAS GENERALLY HANDLED EVOLUTION OF SNOW BANDS THE BEST SO WILL
LEAN SOMEWHAT TOWARDS IT WITH PARTIAL NOD TO NAM. CHALLENGES LIE
TODAY WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF SNOW BANDS...COVERAGE AND EFFECTS OF
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARRIVING FROM WISCONSIN WHERE SFC DEWPTS WERE
DROPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS HAS CUT DOWN THE EXTENT OF SNOW BAND
PRODUCTION WELL OUT INTO THE LAKE BUT OTHER PARAMETERS AND EFFECTS
OF SOON TO DEPART SHORT WAVE ALL HELPING KEEP THINGS GOING. THINK
THAT MANY AREAS WILL STILL SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS IN CURRENT ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING DURING THE DAY BUT
LOCALIZE AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS.

INVERSION HEIGHTS...FETCH AND ALIGNMENT OF DGZ AND BEST OMEGA WILL
ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCTION ONGOING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AS YOU MOVE
FURTHER INLAND. THE NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIKELY
HELP LIMIT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS BUT STILL SHOULD YIELD 1 TO 4
INCHES LOCALLY ACROSS MAINLY THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE W AND SW AS BRIEF
RIDGING SHIFTS THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST. UPPER LEVELS WILL FLATTEN SUBTLY DURING THIS LONG
TERM PERIOD AS NORTH PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN TEMPORARILY FLATTENS WESTERN
RIDGING. HOWEVER...WEAKENING POLAR VORTEX WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LOW
AND A SHOT OF VERY COLD SIBERIAN AIR TO PENETRATE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS BY THIS WEEKEND...SKIMMING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PACIFIC ENERGY TRAILING THIS ARCTIC COLD WILL REINFORCE GREAT LAKES
TROUGHINESS BUT ALSO ALLOW A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MAIN COLD CORE EXITS.

NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES AND PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION OF LAKE EFFECT
REMAIN DIFFICULT AT THESE TIME PERIODS SO CONTINUED WITH BROAD BRUSH
POPS. DID FAVOR ECMWF SLIGHTLY BUT STAYED CLOSE TO OVERALL
SUPERBLEND INIT. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGIONS GIVEN SFC-850MB DELTA T
VALUES IN MID 20S. LITTLE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH ARCTIC AIR AND DGZ
NEAR GROUND LEVEL WILL LIKELY INHIBIT BIG SNOWFALL BUT LONG FETCH
AND PRE-CONDITIONING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING NEXT
FEW DAYS. ECMWF ALSO RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH A SHORT WAVE MONDAY
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SWATH OF SNOW INTO EASTERN AREAS. KEPT
POPS IN THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST WITH TRANSITORY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
AND CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR OUTSIDE OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
IFR AND LIFR WITHIN HEAVIER BURSTS. PRIMARY FOCUS ON NEXT 6 HOURS
OF TERMINALS WITH WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD. DRIER
AIR UPSTREAM SHOULD HELP LIMIT MOISTURE DEPTH LATER TODAY BUT
TRAJECTORIES AND COLD AIR WILL SUSTAIN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS IN A RATHER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. TRIED TO IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR LATE TODAY AT BOTH TERMINALS BUT WILL
TOTALLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE STRONGER BANDS END UP THROUGH THE
PERIOD. COULD CERTAINLY SEE VFR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY KFWA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 101138
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
638 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT
STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS WELL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS
NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...

WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WERE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EXTENSIVE LAKE RESPONSE CONTINUES. THAT BEING SAID...ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO 1 OR 2 DOMINANT SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE
GENERALLY REMAINED TRANSITORY. THE FIRST BAND...WAS LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY SE ACROSS MUCH OF ST. JOE COUNTY IN INDIANA
AND INTO PORTIONS OF MARSHALL AND KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES. A SECOND
BAND HAS  SET UP FROM THREE RIVERS MI SE TO NW OF ALBION. LOCAL
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED BRIEFLY TO AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES
WITH LOCATIONS UNDER THE BANDS LIKELY SEEING A QUICK FEW TENTHS TO
ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW.

ARW HAS GENERALLY HANDLED EVOLUTION OF SNOW BANDS THE BEST SO WILL
LEAN SOMEWHAT TOWARDS IT WITH PARTIAL NOD TO NAM. CHALLENGES LIE
TODAY WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF SNOW BANDS...COVERAGE AND EFFECTS OF
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARRIVING FROM WISCONSIN WHERE SFC DEWPTS WERE
DROPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS HAS CUT DOWN THE EXTENT OF SNOW BAND
PRODUCTION WELL OUT INTO THE LAKE BUT OTHER PARAMETERS AND EFFECTS
OF SOON TO DEPART SHORT WAVE ALL HELPING KEEP THINGS GOING. THINK
THAT MANY AREAS WILL STILL SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS IN CURRENT ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING DURING THE DAY BUT
LOCALIZE AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS.

INVERSION HEIGHTS...FETCH AND ALIGNMENT OF DGZ AND BEST OMEGA WILL
ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCTION ONGOING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AS YOU MOVE
FURTHER INLAND. THE NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIKELY
HELP LIMIT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS BUT STILL SHOULD YIELD 1 TO 4
INCHES LOCALLY ACROSS MAINLY THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE W AND SW AS BRIEF
RIDGING SHIFTS THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST. UPPER LEVELS WILL FLATTEN SUBTLY DURING THIS LONG
TERM PERIOD AS NORTH PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN TEMPORARILY FLATTENS WESTERN
RIDGING. HOWEVER...WEAKENING POLAR VORTEX WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LOW
AND A SHOT OF VERY COLD SIBERIAN AIR TO PENETRATE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS BY THIS WEEKEND...SKIMMING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PACIFIC ENERGY TRAILING THIS ARCTIC COLD WILL REINFORCE GREAT LAKES
TROUGHINESS BUT ALSO ALLOW A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MAIN COLD CORE EXITS.

NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES AND PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION OF LAKE EFFECT
REMAIN DIFFICULT AT THESE TIME PERIODS SO CONTINUED WITH BROAD BRUSH
POPS. DID FAVOR ECMWF SLIGHTLY BUT STAYED CLOSE TO OVERALL
SUPERBLEND INIT. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGIONS GIVEN SFC-850MB DELTA T
VALUES IN MID 20S. LITTLE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH ARCTIC AIR AND DGZ
NEAR GROUND LEVEL WILL LIKELY INHIBIT BIG SNOWFALL BUT LONG FETCH
AND PRE-CONDITIONING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING NEXT
FEW DAYS. ECMWF ALSO RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH A SHORT WAVE MONDAY
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SWATH OF SNOW INTO EASTERN AREAS. KEPT
POPS IN THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST WITH TRANSITORY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
AND CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR OUTSIDE OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
IFR AND LIFR WITHIN HEAVIER BURSTS. PRIMARY FOCUS ON NEXT 6 HOURS
OF TERMINALS WITH WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD. DRIER
AIR UPSTREAM SHOULD HELP LIMIT MOISTURE DEPTH LATER TODAY BUT
TRAJECTORIES AND COLD AIR WILL SUSTAIN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS IN A RATHER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. TRIED TO IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR LATE TODAY AT BOTH TERMINALS BUT WILL
TOTALLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE STRONGER BANDS END UP THROUGH THE
PERIOD. COULD CERTAINLY SEE VFR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY KFWA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 100940
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
440 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN
IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL DURING THIS
PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT REGION. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AWAY WELL AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...

WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WERE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EXTENSIVE LAKE RESPONSE CONTINUES. THAT BEING SAID...ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO 1 OR 2 DOMINANT SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE
GENERALLY REMAINED TRANSITORY. THE FIRST BAND...WAS LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY SE ACROSS MUCH OF ST. JOE COUNTY IN INDIANA
AND INTO PORTIONS OF MARSHALL AND KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES. A SECOND
BAND HAS  SET UP FROM THREE RIVERS MI SE TO NW OF ALBION. LOCAL
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED BRIEFLY TO AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES
WITH LOCATIONS UNDER THE BANDS LIKELY SEEING A QUICK FEW TENTHS TO
ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW.

ARW HAS GENERALLY HANDLED EVOLUTION OF SNOW BANDS THE BEST SO WILL
LEAN SOMEWHAT TOWARDS IT WITH PARTIAL NOD TO NAM. CHALLENGES LIE
TODAY WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF SNOW BANDS...COVERAGE AND EFFECTS OF
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARRIVING FROM WISCONSIN WHERE SFC DEWPTS WERE
DROPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS HAS CUT DOWN THE EXTENT OF SNOW BAND
PRODUCTION WELL OUT INTO THE LAKE BUT OTHER PARAMETERS AND EFFECTS
OF SOON TO DEPART SHORT WAVE ALL HELPING KEEP THINGS GOING. THINK
THAT MANY AREAS WILL STILL SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS IN CURRENT ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING DURING THE DAY BUT
LOCALIZE AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS.

INVERSION HEIGHTS...FETCH AND ALIGNMENT OF DGZ AND BEST OMEGA WILL
ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCTION ONGOING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AS YOU MOVE
FURTHER INLAND. THE NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIKELY
HELP LIMIT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS BUT STILL SHOULD YIELD 1 TO 4
INCHES LOCALLY ACROSS MAINLY THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE W AND SW AS BRIEF
RIDGING SHIFTS THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST. UPPER LEVELS WILL FLATTEN SUBTLY DURING THIS LONG
TERM PERIOD AS NORTH PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN TEMPORARILY FLATTENS WESTERN
RIDGING. HOWEVER...WEAKENING POLAR VORTEX WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LOW
AND A SHOT OF VERY COLD SIBERIAN AIR TO PENETRATE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS BY THIS WEEKEND...SKIMMING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PACIFIC ENERGY TRAILING THIS ARCTIC COLD WILL REINFORCE GREAT LAKES
TROUGHINESS BUT ALSO ALLOW A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MAIN COLD CORE EXITS.

NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES AND PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION OF LAKE EFFECT
REMAIN DIFFICULT AT THESE TIME PERIODS SO CONTINUED WITH BROAD BRUSH
POPS. DID FAVOR ECMWF SLIGHTLY BUT STAYED CLOSE TO OVERALL
SUPERBLEND INIT. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGIONS GIVEN SFC-850MB DELTA T
VALUES IN MID 20S. LITTLE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH ARCTIC AIR AND DGZ
NEAR GROUND LEVEL WILL LIKELY INHIBIT BIG SNOWFALL BUT LONG FETCH
AND PRE-CONDITIONING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING NEXT
FEW DAYS. ECMWF ALSO RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH A SHORT WAVE MONDAY
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SWATH OF SNOW INTO EASTERN AREAS. KEPT
POPS IN THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPACTS AT TERMINALS MAIN FOCUS THIS
PACKAGE. KIWX 88D SHOWS STRONG BAND JUST NORTH OF KSBN AT ISSUANCE
TIME AND SINKING SOUTH. SHOULD SEE LIFR AND VLIFR CONDITIONS NEXT
FEW HOURS AS A FEW SFC REPORTS UNDER THIS BAND INDICATED NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. HIRES MODELS INDICATE
THIS BAND TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT OR AT LEAST TRANSLATE AWAY FROM
KSBN SO SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS AFTER 09-10Z. PERSISTENT NW
FLOW AND COLD AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD AT KSBN. KFWA REMAINS ON
EASTERN EDGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EXPECT VARIED CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR NOT OUT OF QUESTION
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS THAT REMAIN
INTACT WELL INLAND.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 100940
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
440 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN
IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL DURING THIS
PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT REGION. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AWAY WELL AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...

WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WERE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EXTENSIVE LAKE RESPONSE CONTINUES. THAT BEING SAID...ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO 1 OR 2 DOMINANT SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE
GENERALLY REMAINED TRANSITORY. THE FIRST BAND...WAS LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY SE ACROSS MUCH OF ST. JOE COUNTY IN INDIANA
AND INTO PORTIONS OF MARSHALL AND KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES. A SECOND
BAND HAS  SET UP FROM THREE RIVERS MI SE TO NW OF ALBION. LOCAL
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED BRIEFLY TO AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES
WITH LOCATIONS UNDER THE BANDS LIKELY SEEING A QUICK FEW TENTHS TO
ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW.

ARW HAS GENERALLY HANDLED EVOLUTION OF SNOW BANDS THE BEST SO WILL
LEAN SOMEWHAT TOWARDS IT WITH PARTIAL NOD TO NAM. CHALLENGES LIE
TODAY WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF SNOW BANDS...COVERAGE AND EFFECTS OF
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARRIVING FROM WISCONSIN WHERE SFC DEWPTS WERE
DROPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS HAS CUT DOWN THE EXTENT OF SNOW BAND
PRODUCTION WELL OUT INTO THE LAKE BUT OTHER PARAMETERS AND EFFECTS
OF SOON TO DEPART SHORT WAVE ALL HELPING KEEP THINGS GOING. THINK
THAT MANY AREAS WILL STILL SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS IN CURRENT ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING DURING THE DAY BUT
LOCALIZE AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS.

INVERSION HEIGHTS...FETCH AND ALIGNMENT OF DGZ AND BEST OMEGA WILL
ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCTION ONGOING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AS YOU MOVE
FURTHER INLAND. THE NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIKELY
HELP LIMIT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS BUT STILL SHOULD YIELD 1 TO 4
INCHES LOCALLY ACROSS MAINLY THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE W AND SW AS BRIEF
RIDGING SHIFTS THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST. UPPER LEVELS WILL FLATTEN SUBTLY DURING THIS LONG
TERM PERIOD AS NORTH PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN TEMPORARILY FLATTENS WESTERN
RIDGING. HOWEVER...WEAKENING POLAR VORTEX WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LOW
AND A SHOT OF VERY COLD SIBERIAN AIR TO PENETRATE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS BY THIS WEEKEND...SKIMMING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PACIFIC ENERGY TRAILING THIS ARCTIC COLD WILL REINFORCE GREAT LAKES
TROUGHINESS BUT ALSO ALLOW A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MAIN COLD CORE EXITS.

NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES AND PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION OF LAKE EFFECT
REMAIN DIFFICULT AT THESE TIME PERIODS SO CONTINUED WITH BROAD BRUSH
POPS. DID FAVOR ECMWF SLIGHTLY BUT STAYED CLOSE TO OVERALL
SUPERBLEND INIT. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGIONS GIVEN SFC-850MB DELTA T
VALUES IN MID 20S. LITTLE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH ARCTIC AIR AND DGZ
NEAR GROUND LEVEL WILL LIKELY INHIBIT BIG SNOWFALL BUT LONG FETCH
AND PRE-CONDITIONING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING NEXT
FEW DAYS. ECMWF ALSO RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH A SHORT WAVE MONDAY
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SWATH OF SNOW INTO EASTERN AREAS. KEPT
POPS IN THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPACTS AT TERMINALS MAIN FOCUS THIS
PACKAGE. KIWX 88D SHOWS STRONG BAND JUST NORTH OF KSBN AT ISSUANCE
TIME AND SINKING SOUTH. SHOULD SEE LIFR AND VLIFR CONDITIONS NEXT
FEW HOURS AS A FEW SFC REPORTS UNDER THIS BAND INDICATED NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. HIRES MODELS INDICATE
THIS BAND TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT OR AT LEAST TRANSLATE AWAY FROM
KSBN SO SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS AFTER 09-10Z. PERSISTENT NW
FLOW AND COLD AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD AT KSBN. KFWA REMAINS ON
EASTERN EDGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EXPECT VARIED CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR NOT OUT OF QUESTION
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS THAT REMAIN
INTACT WELL INLAND.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 100550
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST
IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LAKE RESPONSE STARTING TO BECOME MORE
APPARENT VIA OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH
AROUND 09Z. NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN CELLULAR MULTIBAND
THIS EVENING AND WOULD SUSPECT INTENSITY TO PICK UP LATE EVENING
AS SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR IN
CLOUD BEARING LAYER MAY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MORE OF A MULTIBAND
SETUP THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONCERN THAT A MORE DOMINANT BAND MAY SETUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PER RECENT HRRR TRENDS AS WEAK SYNOPTIC
TROUGH DEPARTS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
WIND FIELD ALONG WITH A PEAK IN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY.
CURRENTLY HAVE NO PLANS FOR HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN POTENTIAL MORE DOMINANT PLACEMENT/INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FORECASTED SNOW ACCUMS. ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY HAS
STRUGGLED AWAY FROM THE LAKE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
MORE FAVORABLE THERMO PROFILES FOR SNOW GROWTH SHOULD BEGIN TO
COME INTO PLAY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND THUS HESITANT TO
LOWER AMOUNTS TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPACTS AT TERMINALS MAIN FOCUS THIS
PACKAGE. KIWX 88D SHOWS STRONG BAND JUST NORTH OF KSBN AT ISSUANCE
TIME AND SINKING SOUTH. SHOULD SEE LIFR AND VLIFR CONDITIONS NEXT
FEW HOURS AS A FEW SFC REPORTS UNDER THIS BAND INDICATED NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. HIRES MODELS INDICATE
THIS BAND TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT OR AT LEAST TRANSLATE AWAY FROM
KSBN SO SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS AFTER 09-10Z. PERSISTENT NW
FLOW AND COLD AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD AT KSBN. KFWA REMAINS ON
EASTERN EDGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EXPECT VARIED CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR NOT OUT OF QUESTION
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS THAT REMAIN
INTACT WELL INLAND.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...JT/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 100550
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST
IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LAKE RESPONSE STARTING TO BECOME MORE
APPARENT VIA OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH
AROUND 09Z. NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN CELLULAR MULTIBAND
THIS EVENING AND WOULD SUSPECT INTENSITY TO PICK UP LATE EVENING
AS SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR IN
CLOUD BEARING LAYER MAY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MORE OF A MULTIBAND
SETUP THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONCERN THAT A MORE DOMINANT BAND MAY SETUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PER RECENT HRRR TRENDS AS WEAK SYNOPTIC
TROUGH DEPARTS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
WIND FIELD ALONG WITH A PEAK IN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY.
CURRENTLY HAVE NO PLANS FOR HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN POTENTIAL MORE DOMINANT PLACEMENT/INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FORECASTED SNOW ACCUMS. ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY HAS
STRUGGLED AWAY FROM THE LAKE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
MORE FAVORABLE THERMO PROFILES FOR SNOW GROWTH SHOULD BEGIN TO
COME INTO PLAY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND THUS HESITANT TO
LOWER AMOUNTS TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPACTS AT TERMINALS MAIN FOCUS THIS
PACKAGE. KIWX 88D SHOWS STRONG BAND JUST NORTH OF KSBN AT ISSUANCE
TIME AND SINKING SOUTH. SHOULD SEE LIFR AND VLIFR CONDITIONS NEXT
FEW HOURS AS A FEW SFC REPORTS UNDER THIS BAND INDICATED NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. HIRES MODELS INDICATE
THIS BAND TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT OR AT LEAST TRANSLATE AWAY FROM
KSBN SO SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS AFTER 09-10Z. PERSISTENT NW
FLOW AND COLD AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD AT KSBN. KFWA REMAINS ON
EASTERN EDGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EXPECT VARIED CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR NOT OUT OF QUESTION
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS THAT REMAIN
INTACT WELL INLAND.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...JT/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 100550
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST
IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LAKE RESPONSE STARTING TO BECOME MORE
APPARENT VIA OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH
AROUND 09Z. NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN CELLULAR MULTIBAND
THIS EVENING AND WOULD SUSPECT INTENSITY TO PICK UP LATE EVENING
AS SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR IN
CLOUD BEARING LAYER MAY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MORE OF A MULTIBAND
SETUP THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONCERN THAT A MORE DOMINANT BAND MAY SETUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PER RECENT HRRR TRENDS AS WEAK SYNOPTIC
TROUGH DEPARTS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
WIND FIELD ALONG WITH A PEAK IN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY.
CURRENTLY HAVE NO PLANS FOR HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN POTENTIAL MORE DOMINANT PLACEMENT/INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FORECASTED SNOW ACCUMS. ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY HAS
STRUGGLED AWAY FROM THE LAKE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
MORE FAVORABLE THERMO PROFILES FOR SNOW GROWTH SHOULD BEGIN TO
COME INTO PLAY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND THUS HESITANT TO
LOWER AMOUNTS TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPACTS AT TERMINALS MAIN FOCUS THIS
PACKAGE. KIWX 88D SHOWS STRONG BAND JUST NORTH OF KSBN AT ISSUANCE
TIME AND SINKING SOUTH. SHOULD SEE LIFR AND VLIFR CONDITIONS NEXT
FEW HOURS AS A FEW SFC REPORTS UNDER THIS BAND INDICATED NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. HIRES MODELS INDICATE
THIS BAND TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT OR AT LEAST TRANSLATE AWAY FROM
KSBN SO SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS AFTER 09-10Z. PERSISTENT NW
FLOW AND COLD AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD AT KSBN. KFWA REMAINS ON
EASTERN EDGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EXPECT VARIED CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR NOT OUT OF QUESTION
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS THAT REMAIN
INTACT WELL INLAND.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...JT/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 100216
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
916 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND
GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
REGION SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
NORTHERN INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LAKE RESPONSE STARTING TO BECOME MORE
APPARENT VIA OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH
AROUND 09Z. NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN CELLULAR MULTIBAND
THIS EVENING AND WOULD SUSPECT INTENSITY TO PICK UP LATE EVENING
AS SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR IN
CLOUD BEARING LAYER MAY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MORE OF A MULTIBAND
SETUP THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONCERN THAT A MORE DOMINANT BAND MAY SETUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PER RECENT HRRR TRENDS AS WEAK SYNOPTIC
TROUGH DEPARTS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
WIND FIELD ALONG WITH A PEAK IN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY.
CURRENTLY HAVE NO PLANS FOR HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN POTENTIAL MORE DOMINANT PLACEMENT/INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FORECASTED SNOW ACCUMS. ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY HAS
STRUGGLED AWAY FROM THE LAKE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
MORE FAVORABLE THERMO PROFILES FOR SNOW GROWTH SHOULD BEGIN TO
COME INTO PLAY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND THUS HESITANT TO
LOWER AMOUNTS TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD. EXPECTING IFR VSBYS IN THE 1-2
MILE RANGE TO CONTINUE AT KSBN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH
SOME LOWER END PROBABILITY OF LIFR VSBYS. NEXT SYNOPTIC TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH MORE ORGANIZED BANDING POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF THIS WEAK
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID MAINTAIN TEMPO
LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN AFTER 07Z GIVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL LAKE
EFFECT PARAMETERS BY THIS TIME. AT LEAST IFR VSBYS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD AT
KSBN...ALTHOUGH GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE CONFINED TO THE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LESS AT KFWA WHERE IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH
CONTRIBUTION OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SOME BETTER INLAND PENETRATION OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED TO
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY WESTERLY IN THE 15G20-25 KNOT
RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 100216
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
916 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND
GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
REGION SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
NORTHERN INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LAKE RESPONSE STARTING TO BECOME MORE
APPARENT VIA OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH
AROUND 09Z. NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN CELLULAR MULTIBAND
THIS EVENING AND WOULD SUSPECT INTENSITY TO PICK UP LATE EVENING
AS SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR IN
CLOUD BEARING LAYER MAY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MORE OF A MULTIBAND
SETUP THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONCERN THAT A MORE DOMINANT BAND MAY SETUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PER RECENT HRRR TRENDS AS WEAK SYNOPTIC
TROUGH DEPARTS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
WIND FIELD ALONG WITH A PEAK IN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY.
CURRENTLY HAVE NO PLANS FOR HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN POTENTIAL MORE DOMINANT PLACEMENT/INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FORECASTED SNOW ACCUMS. ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY HAS
STRUGGLED AWAY FROM THE LAKE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
MORE FAVORABLE THERMO PROFILES FOR SNOW GROWTH SHOULD BEGIN TO
COME INTO PLAY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND THUS HESITANT TO
LOWER AMOUNTS TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD. EXPECTING IFR VSBYS IN THE 1-2
MILE RANGE TO CONTINUE AT KSBN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH
SOME LOWER END PROBABILITY OF LIFR VSBYS. NEXT SYNOPTIC TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH MORE ORGANIZED BANDING POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF THIS WEAK
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID MAINTAIN TEMPO
LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN AFTER 07Z GIVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL LAKE
EFFECT PARAMETERS BY THIS TIME. AT LEAST IFR VSBYS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD AT
KSBN...ALTHOUGH GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE CONFINED TO THE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LESS AT KFWA WHERE IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH
CONTRIBUTION OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SOME BETTER INLAND PENETRATION OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED TO
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY WESTERLY IN THE 15G20-25 KNOT
RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 100216
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
916 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND
GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
REGION SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
NORTHERN INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LAKE RESPONSE STARTING TO BECOME MORE
APPARENT VIA OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH
AROUND 09Z. NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN CELLULAR MULTIBAND
THIS EVENING AND WOULD SUSPECT INTENSITY TO PICK UP LATE EVENING
AS SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR IN
CLOUD BEARING LAYER MAY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MORE OF A MULTIBAND
SETUP THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONCERN THAT A MORE DOMINANT BAND MAY SETUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PER RECENT HRRR TRENDS AS WEAK SYNOPTIC
TROUGH DEPARTS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
WIND FIELD ALONG WITH A PEAK IN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY.
CURRENTLY HAVE NO PLANS FOR HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN POTENTIAL MORE DOMINANT PLACEMENT/INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FORECASTED SNOW ACCUMS. ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY HAS
STRUGGLED AWAY FROM THE LAKE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
MORE FAVORABLE THERMO PROFILES FOR SNOW GROWTH SHOULD BEGIN TO
COME INTO PLAY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND THUS HESITANT TO
LOWER AMOUNTS TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD. EXPECTING IFR VSBYS IN THE 1-2
MILE RANGE TO CONTINUE AT KSBN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH
SOME LOWER END PROBABILITY OF LIFR VSBYS. NEXT SYNOPTIC TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH MORE ORGANIZED BANDING POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF THIS WEAK
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID MAINTAIN TEMPO
LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN AFTER 07Z GIVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL LAKE
EFFECT PARAMETERS BY THIS TIME. AT LEAST IFR VSBYS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD AT
KSBN...ALTHOUGH GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE CONFINED TO THE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LESS AT KFWA WHERE IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH
CONTRIBUTION OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SOME BETTER INLAND PENETRATION OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED TO
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY WESTERLY IN THE 15G20-25 KNOT
RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 100004
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
704 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND
GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
REGION SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
NORTHERN INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD. EXPECTING IFR VSBYS IN THE 1-2
MILE RANGE TO CONTINUE AT KSBN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH
SOME LOWER END PROBABILITY OF LIFR VSBYS. NEXT SYNOPTIC TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH MORE ORGANIZED BANDING POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF THIS WEAK
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID MAINTAIN TEMPO
LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN AFTER 07Z GIVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL LAKE
EFFECT PARAMETERS BY THIS TIME. AT LEAST IFR VSBYS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD AT
KSBN...ALTHOUGH GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE CONFINED TO THE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LESS AT KFWA WHERE IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH
CONTRIBUTION OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SOME BETTER INLAND PENETRATION OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED TO
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY WESTERLY IN THE 15G20-25 KNOT
RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 100004
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
704 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND
GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
REGION SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
NORTHERN INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD. EXPECTING IFR VSBYS IN THE 1-2
MILE RANGE TO CONTINUE AT KSBN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH
SOME LOWER END PROBABILITY OF LIFR VSBYS. NEXT SYNOPTIC TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH MORE ORGANIZED BANDING POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF THIS WEAK
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID MAINTAIN TEMPO
LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN AFTER 07Z GIVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL LAKE
EFFECT PARAMETERS BY THIS TIME. AT LEAST IFR VSBYS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD AT
KSBN...ALTHOUGH GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE CONFINED TO THE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LESS AT KFWA WHERE IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH
CONTRIBUTION OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SOME BETTER INLAND PENETRATION OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED TO
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY WESTERLY IN THE 15G20-25 KNOT
RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 100004
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
704 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND
GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
REGION SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
NORTHERN INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD. EXPECTING IFR VSBYS IN THE 1-2
MILE RANGE TO CONTINUE AT KSBN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH
SOME LOWER END PROBABILITY OF LIFR VSBYS. NEXT SYNOPTIC TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH MORE ORGANIZED BANDING POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF THIS WEAK
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID MAINTAIN TEMPO
LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN AFTER 07Z GIVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL LAKE
EFFECT PARAMETERS BY THIS TIME. AT LEAST IFR VSBYS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD AT
KSBN...ALTHOUGH GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE CONFINED TO THE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LESS AT KFWA WHERE IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH
CONTRIBUTION OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SOME BETTER INLAND PENETRATION OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED TO
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY WESTERLY IN THE 15G20-25 KNOT
RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 092046
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
346 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND
GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
REGION SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
NORTHERN INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

-SHSN DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING AS VORT MAX WHICH MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT DIVES SSE INTO THE OH VALLEY, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST BLO FUEL ALTERNATE THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL
CAA WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVE WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT SBN AND OCNL IFR AT FWA. LITTLE
OR NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS NW
FLOW CONTS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 092046
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
346 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND
GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
REGION SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
NORTHERN INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

-SHSN DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING AS VORT MAX WHICH MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT DIVES SSE INTO THE OH VALLEY, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST BLO FUEL ALTERNATE THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL
CAA WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVE WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT SBN AND OCNL IFR AT FWA. LITTLE
OR NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS NW
FLOW CONTS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 092046
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
346 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND
GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
REGION SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
NORTHERN INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

-SHSN DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING AS VORT MAX WHICH MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT DIVES SSE INTO THE OH VALLEY, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST BLO FUEL ALTERNATE THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL
CAA WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVE WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT SBN AND OCNL IFR AT FWA. LITTLE
OR NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS NW
FLOW CONTS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 092007
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
307 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND
GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
REGION SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
NORTHERN INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
LOWER AND WINDS BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT WAVE RAPIDLY MOVING
SE TOWARDS THE REGION. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE IN STORE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH TRANSITION BACK TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MORE PRONOUNCED LAKE RESPONSE WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC LOW DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
AND SENDS TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS NOW SEEM
TO BE IN AGREEMENT ON BULK OF COLDEST AIR STAYING EAST OF HERE,
BUT STILL PLENTY LOW ENOUGH TO END UP WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS FOR SATURDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT GIVEN CONCERNS AS TO EXACTLY HOW
MOISTURE PROFILES AND TRAJECTORIES WILL SET UP...LITTLE MORE THAN
CHC POPS WARRANTED.

WITH TRENDS BEING FURTHER EAST WITH THE COLDER AIR...MOS GUIDANCE
HAS TRIED TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. HAVE WENT WITH
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEW SUPERBLEND DATA TO HOLD DOWN
MASSIVE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

-SHSN DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING AS VORT MAX WHICH MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT DIVES SSE INTO THE OH VALLEY, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST BLO FUEL ALTERNATE THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL
CAA WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVE WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT SBN AND OCNL IFR AT FWA. LITTLE
OR NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS NW
FLOW CONTS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 091717
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1217 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE TODAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES IN
THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN
INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST
IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGION OF FAR
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S, WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MULTIPLEX MID/ULVL VORTEX HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART WITH STRONG
NOAM BLOCK AND MULTITUDE OF STRONG DIGS OF UPSTREAM ENERGY. UNTIL
OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTS NNEWD INTO MARITIMES AND
FINAL 160KT UPSTREAM 3H JETLET OVER SASK DIVES DIVES SWD INTO IA
THIS EVENING THE OVERALL STACKED SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS TO PROVE
DISFAVORABLE FOR LES. STILL MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN SHSN WITH
DEEP MOISTURE TO 15KFT TO CONTINUE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO COVER
SUBADVISORY HAZARDS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS/GROUND ICE WITH SPS
PRODUCT AS NEEDED. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE RAPID
ARRIVAL OF 8H COLD POOL CURRENTLY IN HOLDING PATTERN ACROSS NWRN
WI/FAR WRN LK SUPR WITHIN CONGESTED FLOW. OUTPUT FROM 1.33KM/HIGH
IMPACT NAM NEST FURTHER CONFIRMS MORE GENERAL CONCEPTUAL AND OTHER
NAM/MULTICOBB MODEL SUGGESTIONS AND POINT TO 21 UTC TUE FOR START
OF A MORE COHESIVE LES EVENT AND START TIME FOR WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR LES. PER HIGH RES OUTPUT...INITIAL PRIMARY BAND FORMATION ACRS
SRN LAKE MI INTO BERRIEN/NERN LAPORTE LATE AFTERNOON/EVE.
THEREAFTER A SECONDARY MORE NORTHWARD CONVECTIVE ROLL/LES BAND
FORMS WHILE A THIRD BAND FORMS CLOSER TO EAST CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND DROPS SOUTH TAKING ON A KLUD TO NRN ST. JOE
MI COUNTY TARGET. REGARDLESS OF ACTUAL EVOLUTION INTENSITY
OF/CONVECTIVE DEPTH/SUPERSATURATION WITHIN 3KFT DGZ SHOULD LEAD TO
BRIEFLY PEAKED SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH BEST INGREDIENTS OVERLAP AND DELTA T
TO 20C. THEREAFTER AS LOWER PART OF DGZ GOES SUBCLOUD RATES TO
DIMINISH. STILL SLOW DISINTEGRATION OF LES AGGREGATE TROF AND NEAR
STEADY STATE LAKE INDUCED PARAMETERS OF 350-400 J/KG AND 6-7KFT
EQL TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED EVENT FOR REMAINDER OF WED INTO THU
AM. TARGETED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN HEART OF HIGHEST EXPECT ACCUMS
TONIGHT AND WED. THEREAFTER RATES AND SFC WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GREATLY LESSEN OCCURRENCE. LARGELY OWING TO THE LACK OF A DEEPER
DGZ AND DOWNTREND IN MULTIMODEL AVERAGED COBB METHOD SNOW AMOUNTS
HAVE TEMPERED AMOUNTS OVER PRIOR SOMEWHAT. LONGEVITY OF EVENT
SHOULD LEAD TO 6 TO 12 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN BERRIEN/WRN CASS
COUNTIES MICHIGAN AND ST. JOE AND EXTREME NERN LAPORTE COUNTIES
INDIANA. MIN WIND CHILLS 5 BLO TO 5 ABV TONIGHT THROUGH END OF
ADVISORY ADDS ADDITIONAL HAZARD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
LOWER AND WINDS BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT WAVE RAPIDLY MOVING
SE TOWARDS THE REGION. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE IN STORE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH TRANSITION BACK TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MORE PRONOUNCED LAKE RESPONSE WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC LOW DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
AND SENDS TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS NOW SEEM
TO BE IN AGREEMENT ON BULK OF COLDEST AIR STAYING EAST OF HERE,
BUT STILL PLENTY LOW ENOUGH TO END UP WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS FOR SATURDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT GIVEN CONCERNS AS TO EXACTLY HOW
MOISTURE PROFILES AND TRAJECTORIES WILL SET UP...LITTLE MORE THAN
CHC POPS WARRANTED.

WITH TRENDS BEING FURTHER EAST WITH THE COLDER AIR...MOS GUIDANCE
HAS TRIED TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. HAVE WENT WITH
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEW SUPERBLEND DATA TO HOLD DOWN
MASSIVE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

-SHSN DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING AS VORT MAX WHICH MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT DIVES SSE INTO THE OH VALLEY, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST BLO FUEL ALTERNATE THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL
CAA WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVE WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT SBN AND OCNL IFR AT FWA. LITTLE
OR NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS NW
FLOW CONTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 091717
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1217 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE TODAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES IN
THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN
INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST
IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGION OF FAR
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S, WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MULTIPLEX MID/ULVL VORTEX HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART WITH STRONG
NOAM BLOCK AND MULTITUDE OF STRONG DIGS OF UPSTREAM ENERGY. UNTIL
OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTS NNEWD INTO MARITIMES AND
FINAL 160KT UPSTREAM 3H JETLET OVER SASK DIVES DIVES SWD INTO IA
THIS EVENING THE OVERALL STACKED SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS TO PROVE
DISFAVORABLE FOR LES. STILL MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN SHSN WITH
DEEP MOISTURE TO 15KFT TO CONTINUE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO COVER
SUBADVISORY HAZARDS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS/GROUND ICE WITH SPS
PRODUCT AS NEEDED. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE RAPID
ARRIVAL OF 8H COLD POOL CURRENTLY IN HOLDING PATTERN ACROSS NWRN
WI/FAR WRN LK SUPR WITHIN CONGESTED FLOW. OUTPUT FROM 1.33KM/HIGH
IMPACT NAM NEST FURTHER CONFIRMS MORE GENERAL CONCEPTUAL AND OTHER
NAM/MULTICOBB MODEL SUGGESTIONS AND POINT TO 21 UTC TUE FOR START
OF A MORE COHESIVE LES EVENT AND START TIME FOR WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR LES. PER HIGH RES OUTPUT...INITIAL PRIMARY BAND FORMATION ACRS
SRN LAKE MI INTO BERRIEN/NERN LAPORTE LATE AFTERNOON/EVE.
THEREAFTER A SECONDARY MORE NORTHWARD CONVECTIVE ROLL/LES BAND
FORMS WHILE A THIRD BAND FORMS CLOSER TO EAST CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND DROPS SOUTH TAKING ON A KLUD TO NRN ST. JOE
MI COUNTY TARGET. REGARDLESS OF ACTUAL EVOLUTION INTENSITY
OF/CONVECTIVE DEPTH/SUPERSATURATION WITHIN 3KFT DGZ SHOULD LEAD TO
BRIEFLY PEAKED SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH BEST INGREDIENTS OVERLAP AND DELTA T
TO 20C. THEREAFTER AS LOWER PART OF DGZ GOES SUBCLOUD RATES TO
DIMINISH. STILL SLOW DISINTEGRATION OF LES AGGREGATE TROF AND NEAR
STEADY STATE LAKE INDUCED PARAMETERS OF 350-400 J/KG AND 6-7KFT
EQL TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED EVENT FOR REMAINDER OF WED INTO THU
AM. TARGETED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN HEART OF HIGHEST EXPECT ACCUMS
TONIGHT AND WED. THEREAFTER RATES AND SFC WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GREATLY LESSEN OCCURRENCE. LARGELY OWING TO THE LACK OF A DEEPER
DGZ AND DOWNTREND IN MULTIMODEL AVERAGED COBB METHOD SNOW AMOUNTS
HAVE TEMPERED AMOUNTS OVER PRIOR SOMEWHAT. LONGEVITY OF EVENT
SHOULD LEAD TO 6 TO 12 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN BERRIEN/WRN CASS
COUNTIES MICHIGAN AND ST. JOE AND EXTREME NERN LAPORTE COUNTIES
INDIANA. MIN WIND CHILLS 5 BLO TO 5 ABV TONIGHT THROUGH END OF
ADVISORY ADDS ADDITIONAL HAZARD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
LOWER AND WINDS BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT WAVE RAPIDLY MOVING
SE TOWARDS THE REGION. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE IN STORE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH TRANSITION BACK TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MORE PRONOUNCED LAKE RESPONSE WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC LOW DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
AND SENDS TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS NOW SEEM
TO BE IN AGREEMENT ON BULK OF COLDEST AIR STAYING EAST OF HERE,
BUT STILL PLENTY LOW ENOUGH TO END UP WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS FOR SATURDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT GIVEN CONCERNS AS TO EXACTLY HOW
MOISTURE PROFILES AND TRAJECTORIES WILL SET UP...LITTLE MORE THAN
CHC POPS WARRANTED.

WITH TRENDS BEING FURTHER EAST WITH THE COLDER AIR...MOS GUIDANCE
HAS TRIED TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. HAVE WENT WITH
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEW SUPERBLEND DATA TO HOLD DOWN
MASSIVE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

-SHSN DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING AS VORT MAX WHICH MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT DIVES SSE INTO THE OH VALLEY, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST BLO FUEL ALTERNATE THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL
CAA WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVE WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT SBN AND OCNL IFR AT FWA. LITTLE
OR NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS NW
FLOW CONTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 091717
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1217 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE TODAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES IN
THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN
INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST
IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGION OF FAR
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S, WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MULTIPLEX MID/ULVL VORTEX HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART WITH STRONG
NOAM BLOCK AND MULTITUDE OF STRONG DIGS OF UPSTREAM ENERGY. UNTIL
OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTS NNEWD INTO MARITIMES AND
FINAL 160KT UPSTREAM 3H JETLET OVER SASK DIVES DIVES SWD INTO IA
THIS EVENING THE OVERALL STACKED SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS TO PROVE
DISFAVORABLE FOR LES. STILL MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN SHSN WITH
DEEP MOISTURE TO 15KFT TO CONTINUE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO COVER
SUBADVISORY HAZARDS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS/GROUND ICE WITH SPS
PRODUCT AS NEEDED. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE RAPID
ARRIVAL OF 8H COLD POOL CURRENTLY IN HOLDING PATTERN ACROSS NWRN
WI/FAR WRN LK SUPR WITHIN CONGESTED FLOW. OUTPUT FROM 1.33KM/HIGH
IMPACT NAM NEST FURTHER CONFIRMS MORE GENERAL CONCEPTUAL AND OTHER
NAM/MULTICOBB MODEL SUGGESTIONS AND POINT TO 21 UTC TUE FOR START
OF A MORE COHESIVE LES EVENT AND START TIME FOR WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR LES. PER HIGH RES OUTPUT...INITIAL PRIMARY BAND FORMATION ACRS
SRN LAKE MI INTO BERRIEN/NERN LAPORTE LATE AFTERNOON/EVE.
THEREAFTER A SECONDARY MORE NORTHWARD CONVECTIVE ROLL/LES BAND
FORMS WHILE A THIRD BAND FORMS CLOSER TO EAST CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND DROPS SOUTH TAKING ON A KLUD TO NRN ST. JOE
MI COUNTY TARGET. REGARDLESS OF ACTUAL EVOLUTION INTENSITY
OF/CONVECTIVE DEPTH/SUPERSATURATION WITHIN 3KFT DGZ SHOULD LEAD TO
BRIEFLY PEAKED SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH BEST INGREDIENTS OVERLAP AND DELTA T
TO 20C. THEREAFTER AS LOWER PART OF DGZ GOES SUBCLOUD RATES TO
DIMINISH. STILL SLOW DISINTEGRATION OF LES AGGREGATE TROF AND NEAR
STEADY STATE LAKE INDUCED PARAMETERS OF 350-400 J/KG AND 6-7KFT
EQL TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED EVENT FOR REMAINDER OF WED INTO THU
AM. TARGETED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN HEART OF HIGHEST EXPECT ACCUMS
TONIGHT AND WED. THEREAFTER RATES AND SFC WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GREATLY LESSEN OCCURRENCE. LARGELY OWING TO THE LACK OF A DEEPER
DGZ AND DOWNTREND IN MULTIMODEL AVERAGED COBB METHOD SNOW AMOUNTS
HAVE TEMPERED AMOUNTS OVER PRIOR SOMEWHAT. LONGEVITY OF EVENT
SHOULD LEAD TO 6 TO 12 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN BERRIEN/WRN CASS
COUNTIES MICHIGAN AND ST. JOE AND EXTREME NERN LAPORTE COUNTIES
INDIANA. MIN WIND CHILLS 5 BLO TO 5 ABV TONIGHT THROUGH END OF
ADVISORY ADDS ADDITIONAL HAZARD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
LOWER AND WINDS BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT WAVE RAPIDLY MOVING
SE TOWARDS THE REGION. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE IN STORE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH TRANSITION BACK TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MORE PRONOUNCED LAKE RESPONSE WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC LOW DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
AND SENDS TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS NOW SEEM
TO BE IN AGREEMENT ON BULK OF COLDEST AIR STAYING EAST OF HERE,
BUT STILL PLENTY LOW ENOUGH TO END UP WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS FOR SATURDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT GIVEN CONCERNS AS TO EXACTLY HOW
MOISTURE PROFILES AND TRAJECTORIES WILL SET UP...LITTLE MORE THAN
CHC POPS WARRANTED.

WITH TRENDS BEING FURTHER EAST WITH THE COLDER AIR...MOS GUIDANCE
HAS TRIED TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. HAVE WENT WITH
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEW SUPERBLEND DATA TO HOLD DOWN
MASSIVE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

-SHSN DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING AS VORT MAX WHICH MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT DIVES SSE INTO THE OH VALLEY, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST BLO FUEL ALTERNATE THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL
CAA WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVE WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT SBN AND OCNL IFR AT FWA. LITTLE
OR NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS NW
FLOW CONTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 091146
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
646 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE TODAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES IN
THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN
INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST
IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGION OF FAR
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MULTIPLEX MID/ULVL VORTEX HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART WITH STRONG
NOAM BLOCK AND MULTITUDE OF STRONG DIGS OF UPSTREAM ENERGY. UNTIL
OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTS NNEWD INTO MARITIMES AND
FINAL 160KT UPSTREAM 3H JETLET OVER SASK DIVES DIVES SWD INTO IA
THIS EVENING THE OVERALL STACKED SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS TO PROVE
DISFAVORABLE FOR LES. STILL MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN SHSN WITH
DEEP MOISTURE TO 15KFT TO CONTINUE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO COVER
SUBADVISORY HAZARDS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS/GROUND ICE WITH SPS
PRODUCT AS NEEDED. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE RAPID
ARRIVAL OF 8H COLD POOL CURRENTLY IN HOLDING PATTERN ACROSS NWRN
WI/FAR WRN LK SUPR WITHIN CONGESTED FLOW. OUTPUT FROM 1.33KM/HIGH
IMPACT NAM NEST FURTHER CONFIRMS MORE GENERAL CONCEPTUAL AND OTHER
NAM/MULTICOBB MODEL SUGGESTIONS AND POINT TO 21 UTC TUE FOR START
OF A MORE COHESIVE LES EVENT AND START TIME FOR WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR LES. PER HIGH RES OUTPUT...INITIAL PRIMARY BAND FORMATION ACRS
SRN LAKE MI INTO BERRIEN/NERN LAPORTE LATE AFTERNOON/EVE.
THEREAFTER A SECONDARY MORE NORTHWARD CONVECTIVE ROLL/LES BAND
FORMS WHILE A THIRD BAND FORMS CLOSER TO EAST CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND DROPS SOUTH TAKING ON A KLUD TO NRN ST. JOE
MI COUNTY TARGET. REGARDLESS OF ACTUAL EVOLUTION INTENSITY
OF/CONVECTIVE DEPTH/SUPERSATURATION WITHIN 3KFT DGZ SHOULD LEAD TO
BRIEFLY PEAKED SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH BEST INGREDIENTS OVERLAP AND DELTA T
TO 20C. THEREAFTER AS LOWER PART OF DGZ GOES SUBCLOUD RATES TO
DIMINISH. STILL SLOW DISINTEGRATION OF LES AGGREGATE TROF AND NEAR
STEADY STATE LAKE INDUCED PARAMETERS OF 350-400 J/KG AND 6-7KFT
EQL TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED EVENT FOR REMAINDER OF WED INTO THU
AM. TARGETED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN HEART OF HIGHEST EXPECT ACCUMS
TONIGHT AND WED. THEREAFTER RATES AND SFC WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GREATLY LESSEN OCCURRENCE. LARGELY OWING TO THE LACK OF A DEEPER
DGZ AND DOWNTREND IN MULTIMODEL AVERAGED COBB METHOD SNOW AMOUNTS
HAVE TEMPERED AMOUNTS OVER PRIOR SOMEWHAT. LONGEVITY OF EVENT
SHOULD LEAD TO 6 TO 12 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN BERRIEN/WRN CASS
COUNTIES MICHIGAN AND ST. JOE AND EXTREME NERN LAPORTE COUNTIES
INDIANA. MIN WIND CHILLS 5 BLO TO 5 ABV TONIGHT THROUGH END OF
ADVISORY ADDS ADDITIONAL HAZARD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
LOWER AND WINDS BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT WAVE RAPIDLY MOVING
SE TOWARDS THE REGION. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE IN STORE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH TRANSITION BACK TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MORE PRONOUNCED LAKE RESPONSE WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC LOW DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
AND SENDS TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS NOW SEEM
TO BE IN AGREEMENT ON BULK OF COLDEST AIR STAYING EAST OF HERE,
BUT STILL PLENTY LOW ENOUGH TO END UP WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS FOR SATURDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT GIVEN CONCERNS AS TO EXACTLY HOW
MOISTURE PROFILES AND TRAJECTORIES WILL SET UP...LITTLE MORE THAN
CHC POPS WARRANTED.

WITH TRENDS BEING FURTHER EAST WITH THE COLDER AIR...MOS GUIDANCE
HAS TRIED TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. HAVE WENT WITH
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEW SUPERBLEND DATA TO HOLD DOWN
MASSIVE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

BRIEF SNYOPTICALLY DRIVEN SHSN CONTINUE THIS AM WITH PRIMARILY
FUEL/ALT CRITERIA TO OCNLY LOWER IFR VSBY/CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
INCREASINGLY MORE DEVELOPED LAKE EFFET BANDS FORM AND PRIMARILY
AFFECT KSBN. BY DAYBREAK ANTICIPATE LAKE BANDS TO BE AT/NEAR
PINACLE WITH OCNL LIFR WITHIN HEART OF BANDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 091006
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
506 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AND GREATEST
IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGION
OF FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MULTIPLEX MID/ULVL VORTEX HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART WITH STRONG NOAM
BLOCK AND MULTITUDE OF STRONG DIGS OF UPSTREAM ENERGY. UNTIL
OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTS NNEWD INTO MARITIMES AND
FINAL 160KT UPSTREAM 3H JETLET OVER SASK DIVES DIVES SWD INTO IA
THIS EVENING THE OVERALL STACKED SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS TO PROVE
DISFAVORABLE FOR LES. STILL MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN SHSN WITH DEEP
MOISTURE TO 15KFT TO CONTINUE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO COVER
SUBADVISORY HAZARDS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS/GROUND ICE WITH SPS
PRODUCT AS NEEDED. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE RAPID ARRIVAL
OF 8H COLD POOL CURRENTLY IN HOLDING PATTERN ACROSS NWRN WI/FAR WRN
LK SUPR WITHIN CONGESTED FLOW. OUTPUT FROM 1.33KM/HIGH IMPACT NAM
NEST FURTHER CONFIRMS MORE GENERAL CONCEPTUAL AND OTHER
NAM/MULTICOBB MODEL SUGGESTIONS AND POINT TO 21 UTC TUE FOR START OF
A MORE COHESIVE LES EVENT AND START TIME FOR WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
LES. PER HIGH RES OUTPUT...INITIAL PRIMARY BAND FORMATION ACRS SRN
LAKE MI INTO BERRIEN/NERN LAPORTE LATE AFTERNOON/EVE. THEREAFTER A
SECONDARY MORE NORTHWARD CONVECTIVE ROLL/LES BAND FORMS WHILE A
THIRD BAND FORMS CLOSER TO EAST CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND
DROPS SOUTH TAKING ON A KLUD TO NRN ST. JOE MI COUNTY TARGET.
REGARDLESS OF ACTUAL EVOLUTION INTENSITY OF/CONVECTIVE
DEPTH/SUPERSATURATION WITHIN 3KFT DGZ SHOULD LEAD TO BRIEFLY PEAKED
SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WED WITH BEST INGREDIENTS OVERLAP AND DELTA T TO 20C. THEREAFTER AS
LOWER PART OF DGZ GOES SUBCLOUD RATES TO DIMINISH. STILL SLOW
DISINTEGRATION OF LES AGGREGATE TROF AND NEAR STEADY STATE LAKE
INDUCED PARAMETERS OF 350-400 J/KG AND 6-7KFT EQL TO MAINTAIN A
PROLONGED EVENT FOR REMAINDER OF WED INTO THU AM. TARGETED PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW IN HEART OF HIGHEST EXPECT ACCUMS TONIGHT AND WED.
THEREAFTER RATES AND SFC WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GREATLY LESSEN
OCCURRENCE. LARGELY OWING TO THE LACK OF A DEEPER DGZ AND DOWNTREND
IN MULTIMODEL AVERAGED COBB METHOD SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE TEMPERED
AMOUNTS OVER PRIOR SOMEWHAT. LONGEVITY OF EVENT SHOULD LEAD TO 6 TO
12 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN BERRIEN/WRN CASS COUNTIES MICHIGAN AND ST.
JOE AND EXTREME NERN LAPORTE COUNTIES INDIANA. MIN WIND CHILLS 5 BLO
TO 5 ABV TONIGHT THROUGH END OF ADVISORY ADDS ADDITIONAL HAZARD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWER AND WINDS BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT WAVE
RAPIDLY MOVING SE TOWARDS THE REGION. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE IN
STORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH TRANSITION BACK TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.

MORE PRONOUNCED LAKE RESPONSE WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY AS ARCTIC LOW DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND AND
SENDS TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS NOW SEEM TO BE
IN AGREEMENT ON BULK OF COLDEST AIR STAYING EAST OF HERE, BUT STILL
PLENTY LOW ENOUGH TO END UP WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS FOR
SATURDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AGAIN ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT GIVEN CONCERNS AS TO EXACTLY HOW MOISTURE PROFILES
AND TRAJECTORIES WILL SET UP...LITTLE MORE THAN CHC POPS WARRANTED.

WITH TRENDS BEING FURTHER EAST WITH THE COLDER AIR...MOS GUIDANCE
HAS TRIED TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. HAVE WENT WITH
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEW SUPERBLEND DATA TO HOLD DOWN
MASSIVE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

DIFFICULT TAFS THROUGH THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY AT KSBN AS EXACT
LAYOUT OF FORECASTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL CAUSE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE HIGH IN SNOW
SHOWERS OCCURRING WITH IMPACTS BUT CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM ON
PLACEMENT OF BANDS WITH RELATION TO TAF SITES.

ONE BAND WAS MOVING EAST OF KBEH AND BASED ON ESE TRAJECTORY MAY
BYPASS KSBN ENTIRELY. HOWEVER HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SOME
EXPANSION IN COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TUES. HAVE
TONED DOWN TAFS IN THAT PERIOD AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS. KFWA
SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
MAINLY MVFR CIGS TO DEAL WITH.

A LULL IN SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY AFTER 14Z TUES THROUGH AT
LEAST 00Z WEDS AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT BRIEFLY WANE.
HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT SHOULD KICK IN FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 00Z WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS BEING SEEN AT KSBN AFTER 2Z AND PERSISTING WELL
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. AT KFWA...HAVE KEPT LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRY MENTION AFTER 14Z WITH TEMPO GROUP TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD TO HANDLE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING
TO MOVE SE TOWARDS THE SITE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 090550
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AMOUNTS
DURING ANY ONE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT BUT THE LONG
DURATION OF THE EVENT MAY ALLOW AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO SEE
BETWEEN 6 AND 12 INCHES OF SNOW BY THE TIME THURSDAY MORNING ROLLS
AROUND. ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK
DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN
SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

SEVERAL VORT LOBES ROTATING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY UPPER TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN ONLY VERY SLOW EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW.
AN ELONGATED VORT MAX ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
VERY LITTLE BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED IN NATURE AS IT
APPEARS TO TRY AND PHASE WITH VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS BEING SLOWED
SOMEWHAT BY LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGING EXTENDING BACK NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
EXPANDED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...LARGELY IN RESPONSE
TO THIS AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND SOME CONVECTIVE
CONTRIBUTION/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WEAK
LOW LEVEL TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
BETTER ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST SHEAR IN CLOUD
BEARING LAYER. SNOW RATIOS ALSO DO NOT APPEAR TO BE OPTIMAL
OVERNIGHT GIVEN POTENTIAL OF SOME RIMING TO LESSEN RATIOS. 1 TO 3
INCH ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AND NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO GOING GRIDS. SPS ISSUED
EARLIER TO HIGHLIGHT SLICK ROADS THAT HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO SOME RE-FREEZING OF EARLIER MELTED
PRECIP AND NEW LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

H5 LOW CNTR OVR CNTRL LK MI THIS AFTN WILL ROUND SEWD
INTO WRN LK ER BY TUE AFTN. HWVR ERN EXTENT OF INCOMING LL CAA WING
IS DELAYED UNTIL LT PD COINCIDENT W/EVENTUAL UPSTREAM BACK OF LL
FLW. THUS OVERALL LK RESPONSE TONIGHT XPCD TO BE TEPID UNTIL AFT 06Z
WHEN MOST VIGOROUS MSTR FLUX/VERTICAL ASCENT DVLPS ACRS NW CWA.
REGARDLESS INHERENT SNOW BAND DVLPMNT LT TONIGHT LOOKS TO REMAIN
TRANSITORY WHICH SHLD LIMIT POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY ONE
LOCALE OUTSIDE PERHAPS NE LAPORTE/WRN ST JOE. AT ANY RATE WILL FOREGO
SHRT DURATIONS HEADLINE NEED LT TONIGHT/ERLY TUE AM TO EVENING SHIFT.

OTRWS UPSTREAM MID LVL MSTR PLUME HOLDS WEST ON TUE WHILE LL THERMAL
TROUGH STEADILY GROWS. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP LIGHT SHSN GOING
THROUGH THE DAY FAR NW HWVR INLAND REACH MUCH IN DOUBT GIVEN DEGREE
OF MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WITHIN MID LVL DRYSLOT AND WILL TEMPER PRIOR
GRIDDED POPS CONSIDERABLY EAST HALF. AS SUCH WILL AGAIN CONT TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS THIS PD AS MORE COMPELLING PERIOD
LIES BEYOND TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
BE ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE INCREASING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. MANY FAVORABLE FACTORS WILL COME
TOGETHER FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INCLUDING
A LONG FETCH OVER OPEN WATERS INCLUDING PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WHICH WAS ONLY 4 PERCENT ICE COVERED. THIS LONG FETCH
COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT/UPPER SUPPORT AND VERY LARGE DELTA T
VALUES FROM 20C TO 25C IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FAVOR HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM NORTHERN LAPORTE COUNTY AND NORTHERN ST
JOSEPH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN INCLUDING BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES. A
WINTER HEADLINE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT FOR THIS SNOW.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BRIEFLY WITH BACKING WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND STRONG COLD FRONT... ALLOWING
ONLY A SHORT BREAK IN THE SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AS A SECOND SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES COLDER FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND ZERO OR
JUST ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

DIFFICULT TAFS THROUGH THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY AT KSBN AS EXACT
LAYOUT OF FORECASTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL CAUSE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE HIGH IN SNOW
SHOWERS OCCURRING WITH IMPACTS BUT CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM ON
PLACEMENT OF BANDS WITH RELATION TO TAF SITES.

ONE BAND WAS MOVING EAST OF KBEH AND BASED ON ESE TRAJECTORY MAY
BYPASS KSBN ENTIRELY. HOWEVER HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SOME
EXPANSION IN COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TUES. HAVE
TONED DOWN TAFS IN THAT PERIOD AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS. KFWA
SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
MAINLY MVFR CIGS TO DEAL WITH.

A LULL IN SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY AFTER 14Z TUES THROUGH AT
LEAST 00Z WEDS AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT BRIEFLY WANE.
HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT SHOULD KICK IN FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 00Z WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS BEING SEEN AT KSBN AFTER 2Z AND PERSISTING WELL
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. AT KFWA...HAVE KEPT LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRY MENTION AFTER 14Z WITH TEMPO GROUP TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD TO HANDLE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING
TO MOVE SE TOWARDS THE SITE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 090149
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
849 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AMOUNTS
DURING ANY ONE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT BUT THE LONG
DURATION OF THE EVENT MAY ALLOW AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO SEE
BETWEEN 6 AND 12 INCHES OF SNOW BY THE TIME THURSDAY MORNING ROLLS
AROUND. ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK
DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN
SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

SEVERAL VORT LOBES ROTATING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY UPPER TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN ONLY VERY SLOW EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW.
AN ELONGATED VORT MAX ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
VERY LITTLE BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED IN NATURE AS IT
APPEARS TO TRY AND PHASE WITH VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS BEING SLOWED
SOMEWHAT BY LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGING EXTENDING BACK NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
EXPANDED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...LARGELY IN RESPONSE
TO THIS AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND SOME CONVECTIVE
CONTRIBUTION/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WEAK
LOW LEVEL TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
BETTER ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST SHEAR IN CLOUD
BEARING LAYER. SNOW RATIOS ALSO DO NOT APPEAR TO BE OPTIMAL
OVERNIGHT GIVEN POTENTIAL OF SOME RIMING TO LESSEN RATIOS. 1 TO 3
INCH ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AND NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO GOING GRIDS. SPS ISSUED
EARLIER TO HIGHLIGHT SLICK ROADS THAT HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO SOME RE-FREEZING OF EARLIER MELTED
PRECIP AND NEW LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

H5 LOW CNTR OVR CNTRL LK MI THIS AFTN WILL ROUND SEWD
INTO WRN LK ER BY TUE AFTN. HWVR ERN EXTENT OF INCOMING LL CAA WING
IS DELAYED UNTIL LT PD COINCIDENT W/EVENTUAL UPSTREAM BACK OF LL
FLW. THUS OVERALL LK RESPONSE TONIGHT XPCD TO BE TEPID UNTIL AFT 06Z
WHEN MOST VIGOROUS MSTR FLUX/VERTICAL ASCENT DVLPS ACRS NW CWA.
REGARDLESS INHERENT SNOW BAND DVLPMNT LT TONIGHT LOOKS TO REMAIN
TRANSITORY WHICH SHLD LIMIT POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY ONE
LOCALE OUTSIDE PERHAPS NE LAPORTE/WRN ST JOE. AT ANY RATE WILL FOREGO
SHRT DURATIONS HEADLINE NEED LT TONIGHT/ERLY TUE AM TO EVENING SHIFT.

OTRWS UPSTREAM MID LVL MSTR PLUME HOLDS WEST ON TUE WHILE LL THERMAL
TROUGH STEADILY GROWS. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP LIGHT SHSN GOING
THROUGH THE DAY FAR NW HWVR INLAND REACH MUCH IN DOUBT GIVEN DEGREE
OF MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WITHIN MID LVL DRYSLOT AND WILL TEMPER PRIOR
GRIDDED POPS CONSIDERABLY EAST HALF. AS SUCH WILL AGAIN CONT TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS THIS PD AS MORE COMPELLING PERIOD
LIES BEYOND TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
BE ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE INCREASING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. MANY FAVORABLE FACTORS WILL COME
TOGETHER FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INCLUDING
A LONG FETCH OVER OPEN WATERS INCLUDING PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WHICH WAS ONLY 4 PERCENT ICE COVERED. THIS LONG FETCH
COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT/UPPER SUPPORT AND VERY LARGE DELTA T
VALUES FROM 20C TO 25C IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FAVOR HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM NORTHERN LAPORTE COUNTY AND NORTHERN ST
JOSEPH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN INCLUDING BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES. A
WINTER HEADLINE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT FOR THIS SNOW.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BRIEFLY WITH BACKING WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND STRONG COLD FRONT... ALLOWING
ONLY A SHORT BREAK IN THE SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AS A SECOND SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES COLDER FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND ZERO OR
JUST ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH NEGATIVE UPPER
HEIGHT ANOMALY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. ELONGATED VORT
MAX EXTENDING NORTH OF THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED FOCUS FOR SYNOPTIC FORCING THROUGH
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE GREATER LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME BUILDING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT GIVEN LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING WRAPPING BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/SOME CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION WILL ALLOW FOR
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODIC IFR
VSBYS AT KSBN. AFTER EARLY-MID MORNING TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN
IMPACTS FROM SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHES SOME WITH WEAKER FORCING AND
STILL MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS. GREATER IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL FRONT/TROUGH
DROP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING GREATER POTENTIAL OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





000
FXUS63 KIWX 090012
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
712 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AMOUNTS
DURING ANY ONE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT BUT THE LONG
DURATION OF THE EVENT MAY ALLOW AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO SEE
BETWEEN 6 AND 12 INCHES OF SNOW BY THE TIME THURSDAY MORNING ROLLS
AROUND. ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK
DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN
SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

H5 LOW CNTR OVR CNTRL LK MI THIS AFTN WILL ROUND SEWD
INTO WRN LK ER BY TUE AFTN. HWVR ERN EXTENT OF INCOMING LL CAA WING
IS DELAYED UNTIL LT PD COINCIDENT W/EVENTUAL UPSTREAM BACK OF LL
FLW. THUS OVERALL LK RESPONSE TONIGHT XPCD TO BE TEPID UNTIL AFT 06Z
WHEN MOST VIGOROUS MSTR FLUX/VERTICAL ASCENT DVLPS ACRS NW CWA.
REGARDLESS INHERENT SNOW BAND DVLPMNT LT TONIGHT LOOKS TO REMAIN
TRANSITORY WHICH SHLD LIMIT POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY ONE
LOCALE OUTSIDE PERHAPS NE LAPORTE/WRN ST JOE. AT ANY RATE WILL FOREGO
SHRT DURATIONS HEADLINE NEED LT TONIGHT/ERLY TUE AM TO EVENING SHIFT.

OTRWS UPSTREAM MID LVL MSTR PLUME HOLDS WEST ON TUE WHILE LL THERMAL
TROUGH STEADILY GROWS. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP LIGHT SHSN GOING
THROUGH THE DAY FAR NW HWVR INLAND REACH MUCH IN DOUBT GIVEN DEGREE
OF MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WITHIN MID LVL DRYSLOT AND WILL TEMPER PRIOR
GRIDDED POPS CONSIDERABLY EAST HALF. AS SUCH WILL AGAIN CONT TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS THIS PD AS MORE COMPELLING PERIOD
LIES BEYOND TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
BE ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE INCREASING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. MANY FAVORABLE FACTORS WILL COME
TOGETHER FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INCLUDING
A LONG FETCH OVER OPEN WATERS INCLUDING PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WHICH WAS ONLY 4 PERCENT ICE COVERED. THIS LONG FETCH
COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT/UPPER SUPPORT AND VERY LARGE DELTA T
VALUES FROM 20C TO 25C IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FAVOR HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM NORTHERN LAPORTE COUNTY AND NORTHERN ST
JOSEPH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN INCLUDING BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES. A
WINTER HEADLINE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT FOR THIS SNOW.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BRIEFLY WITH BACKING WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND STRONG COLD FRONT... ALLOWING
ONLY A SHORT BREAK IN THE SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AS A SECOND SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES COLDER FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND ZERO OR
JUST ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH NEGATIVE UPPER
HEIGHT ANOMALY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. ELONGATED VORT
MAX EXTENDING NORTH OF THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED FOCUS FOR SYNOPTIC FORCING THROUGH
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE GREATER LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME BUILDING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT GIVEN LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING WRAPPING BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/SOME CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION WILL ALLOW FOR
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODIC IFR
VSBYS AT KSBN. AFTER EARLY-MID MORNING TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN
IMPACTS FROM SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHES SOME WITH WEAKER FORCING AND
STILL MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS. GREATER IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL FRONT/TROUGH
DROP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING GREATER POTENTIAL OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


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