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000
FXUS64 KJAN 012101
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
401 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SLOW MODERATION OVER
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL.

PER LAPS/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, AN OPEN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE SABIN RIVER ALLOWING FOR WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WHILE
BEING CONNECTED VERTICALLY TO A H7-H5 VORT MAX OVER THE ARKLATEX IS
PROVIDING SUPPORT OF A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER SHIELD OVER THE REGION.
THIS RAIN SHIELD WILL PERSIST AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
EAST TOWARDS AL. LITTLE MOVEMENT OF SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER
NEXT 12 HOURS AND SOME HI-RES/SSEO OUTPUT SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEMI-ORGANIZED SHOWERS OVER LA PARISHES SATURDAY MORNING.

BY SATURDAY AFTN, AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VERTICAL VORTICITY CONNECTION WILL SHIFT SW AND WEAKEN BUT BROAD
H5-H3 TROUGHING WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS TOMORROW THEN TODAY BUT MORE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE RISE /1000-1500 MLCAPE/.
OVERALL COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT
MUCH OF THE SAME EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED TOMORROW AND AGAIN SUNDAY WHICH IS A
SLIGHT CUT FROM MAVMOS TOWARDS ECMOS. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT
TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY AS A MORE POTENT S/WV
TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH AND ACT TO PUSH SOME DRIER AIR /PWATS 1.3"/
INTO N MS. /ALLEN/

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE LINGERING OVER OUR REGION
SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE CENTERED NORTH OF OUR AREA AND HELP FILTER IN A LITTLE DRIER AIR
INTO OUR CWA ON A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND. PWS WILL RANGE FROM AN
INCH AND HALF NORTH TO NEAR TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING
AND DROP BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY MONDAY
MORNING. GREATEST POPS SUNDAY WILL BE CARRIED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. PWS WILL DROP FURTHER BY TUESDAY MORNING AND CHANGE VERY
LITTLE FOR WEDNESDAY. GREATEST POPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE
CARRIED OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN
EXPECTED OVER OUR DELTA REGION. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S AND THEN BE
NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORNING LOWS
WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS WARMER AND DRIER THAN THE GFS. BOTH
MODELS INDICATE THAT SURFACE RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE GFS KEEPS LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER OUR REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF STRENGTHENS MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF STATES. LAST
NIGHT`S MODEL RUN FEATURED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE IS WEAKER AND REMAINS FARTHER NORTH IN THE LATEST RUN. A
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES LOOKS TO
BE THE TREND FOR THE END OF WEEK. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOSTLY PREVAIL AT TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.  A BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES COULD BE OBSERVED
THROUGH THE COURSE WHERE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER RAINFALL IS OBSERVED FROM
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO CALM LATER
THIS EVENING. BKN TO OVC HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  86  69  88 /  24  38  22  40
MERIDIAN      68  87  67  88 /  20  45  27  43
VICKSBURG     67  84  68  87 /  39  33  20  39
HATTIESBURG   69  88  69  89 /  21  51  23  60
NATCHEZ       69  85  68  85 /  38  40  23  47
GREENVILLE    68  86  67  88 /  24  27  11  23
GREENWOOD     67  88  67  87 /  21  35  15  25

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/22/28






000
FXUS64 KJAN 012101
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
401 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SLOW MODERATION OVER
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL.

PER LAPS/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, AN OPEN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE SABIN RIVER ALLOWING FOR WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WHILE
BEING CONNECTED VERTICALLY TO A H7-H5 VORT MAX OVER THE ARKLATEX IS
PROVIDING SUPPORT OF A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER SHIELD OVER THE REGION.
THIS RAIN SHIELD WILL PERSIST AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
EAST TOWARDS AL. LITTLE MOVEMENT OF SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER
NEXT 12 HOURS AND SOME HI-RES/SSEO OUTPUT SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEMI-ORGANIZED SHOWERS OVER LA PARISHES SATURDAY MORNING.

BY SATURDAY AFTN, AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VERTICAL VORTICITY CONNECTION WILL SHIFT SW AND WEAKEN BUT BROAD
H5-H3 TROUGHING WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS TOMORROW THEN TODAY BUT MORE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE RISE /1000-1500 MLCAPE/.
OVERALL COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT
MUCH OF THE SAME EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH CONTINUED UPPER TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED TOMORROW AND AGAIN SUNDAY WHICH IS A
SLIGHT CUT FROM MAVMOS TOWARDS ECMOS. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT
TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY AS A MORE POTENT S/WV
TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH AND ACT TO PUSH SOME DRIER AIR /PWATS 1.3"/
INTO N MS. /ALLEN/

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE LINGERING OVER OUR REGION
SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE CENTERED NORTH OF OUR AREA AND HELP FILTER IN A LITTLE DRIER AIR
INTO OUR CWA ON A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND. PWS WILL RANGE FROM AN
INCH AND HALF NORTH TO NEAR TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING
AND DROP BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY MONDAY
MORNING. GREATEST POPS SUNDAY WILL BE CARRIED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. PWS WILL DROP FURTHER BY TUESDAY MORNING AND CHANGE VERY
LITTLE FOR WEDNESDAY. GREATEST POPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE
CARRIED OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN
EXPECTED OVER OUR DELTA REGION. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S AND THEN BE
NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORNING LOWS
WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS WARMER AND DRIER THAN THE GFS. BOTH
MODELS INDICATE THAT SURFACE RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE GFS KEEPS LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER OUR REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF STRENGTHENS MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF STATES. LAST
NIGHT`S MODEL RUN FEATURED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE IS WEAKER AND REMAINS FARTHER NORTH IN THE LATEST RUN. A
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES LOOKS TO
BE THE TREND FOR THE END OF WEEK. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOSTLY PREVAIL AT TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.  A BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES COULD BE OBSERVED
THROUGH THE COURSE WHERE SLIGHTLY HEAVIER RAINFALL IS OBSERVED FROM
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO CALM LATER
THIS EVENING. BKN TO OVC HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  86  69  88 /  24  38  22  40
MERIDIAN      68  87  67  88 /  20  45  27  43
VICKSBURG     67  84  68  87 /  39  33  20  39
HATTIESBURG   69  88  69  89 /  21  51  23  60
NATCHEZ       69  85  68  85 /  38  40  23  47
GREENVILLE    68  86  67  88 /  24  27  11  23
GREENWOOD     67  88  67  87 /  21  35  15  25

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/22/28







000
FXUS64 KJAN 011502 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1002 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...TWEAKED HIGHS DOWN 1-2F DEGREES FOR W/SW AREAS AND
ADJUSTED HOURLY VALUES AS WELL. POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR SE
MS GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

.DISCUSSION...AN OPEN INVERTED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE
SABINE RIVER VALLEY IS RESULTING IN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE
300-305K LAYER OVER THE MS RIVER AND, IN COMBINATION WITH A 40-50 KT
H3 JET STREAK PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, IS PROVIDING SUPPORT
FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHIELD ACROSS LA AND W MS THIS MORNING.
THIS RAIN SHIELD WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE I-55
CORRIDOR NEXT 2-4 HOURS BUT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO OWNING
TO WEAKER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EAST MS. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN EAST MS THROUGH THE AFTN.

DO NOT FEEL CLOUDS WILL THIN AS MUCH AS THEY DID YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
WITH RAIN COOLED AIR NEARBY AS WELL, HAVE DROPPED HIGHS 1-2F FOR
WESTERN AND SOME CENTRAL LOCATIONS.

TEXT AND GRAPHIC UPDATES ARE OUT AND AN UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
CAN BE FOUND DIRECTLY BELOW. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
TONIGHT.  A BRIEF BOUT OF MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES COULD BE OBSERVED
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD WHERE MORE MODERATE RAINFALL IS
OBSERVED FROM SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS TODAY WILL AGAIN HAVE A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS...AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO
LIGHT TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING. /19/28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN CONTINUED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...IN ADDITION TO AN
INVERTED TROUGH/VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER EAST
CENTRAL TEXAS...WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CULPRITS IN KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.  THE AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY SEEN ON RADAR OVER IN MY
WESTERN ZONES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST AND DEEPER INTO
THE CWA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK-UP THE FURTHER
EAST IT GETS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A SOMEWHAT DRIER/MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE.  MODELS SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION AND THIS TREND IS ALREADY
BEING OBSERVED ON RADAR THIS MORNING. THUS...BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE
FORECAST TODAY TO BE GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55
CORRIDOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.  SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OF THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED VARIETY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55.

AGAIN...NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE IN TERMS OF THE SETUP FOR SATURDAY.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE FEATURE WILL SLIDE A LITTLE FURTHER
EAST INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA SATURDAY.  INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE A
BIT BETTER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.  THEREFORE...SHOWERS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD HANG ON OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MY SOUTHWEST.

ONCE AGAIN...CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN KEEPING HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY.  OBVIOUSLY THIS
WILL BE FURTHERED IN LOCATIONS THAT OBSERVE RAIN.  HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE PEAK IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S BUT WILL BE A TAD WARMER ON
SATURDAY AS THEY GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.  LOWS
BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AND
ONLY SLIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. /19/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE LINGERING OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WEAKENING THROUGH
THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF OUR AREA
AND HELP FILTER IN A LITTLE DRIER AIR INTO OUR CWA ON A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND. PWS WILL RANGE FROM AN INCH AND HALF NORTH TO NEAR
TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING AND DROP BELOW AN INCH AND A
HALF NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY MONDAY MORNING. GREATEST POPS SUNDAY
WILL BE CARRIED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. PWS WILL DROP
FURTHER BY TUESDAY MORNING AND CHANGE VERY LITTLE FOR WEDNESDAY.
GREATEST POPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE CARRIED OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED OVER OUR
DELTA REGION. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S AND THEN BE NEAR NORMAL
IN THE LOWER 90S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL
CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS IN THE UPPER
60S AND BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS WARMER AND DRIER THAN THE GFS. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THAT SURFACE RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE GULF COAST
AND THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE GFS KEEPS LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF
STRENGTHENS MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF STATES. LAST NIGHT`S
MODEL RUN FEATURED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE  DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS
WEAKER AND REMAINS FARTHER NORTH IN THE LATEST RUN. A TREND TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES LOOKS TO BE THE TREND
FOR THE END OF WEEK. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       84  68  88  68 /  55  36  40  31
MERIDIAN      86  67  88  69 /  32  21  47  34
VICKSBURG     82  67  87  67 /  83  38  36  24
HATTIESBURG   87  68  90  71 /  57  19  53  35
NATCHEZ       83  68  86  69 / 100  33  37  26
GREENVILLE    79  67  86  68 /  59  21  26  11
GREENWOOD     81  66  87  67 /  47  20  31  16

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/28/19/22







000
FXUS64 KJAN 011502 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1002 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...TWEAKED HIGHS DOWN 1-2F DEGREES FOR W/SW AREAS AND
ADJUSTED HOURLY VALUES AS WELL. POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR SE
MS GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

.DISCUSSION...AN OPEN INVERTED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE
SABINE RIVER VALLEY IS RESULTING IN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE
300-305K LAYER OVER THE MS RIVER AND, IN COMBINATION WITH A 40-50 KT
H3 JET STREAK PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, IS PROVIDING SUPPORT
FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHIELD ACROSS LA AND W MS THIS MORNING.
THIS RAIN SHIELD WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE I-55
CORRIDOR NEXT 2-4 HOURS BUT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO OWNING
TO WEAKER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EAST MS. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN EAST MS THROUGH THE AFTN.

DO NOT FEEL CLOUDS WILL THIN AS MUCH AS THEY DID YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
WITH RAIN COOLED AIR NEARBY AS WELL, HAVE DROPPED HIGHS 1-2F FOR
WESTERN AND SOME CENTRAL LOCATIONS.

TEXT AND GRAPHIC UPDATES ARE OUT AND AN UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
CAN BE FOUND DIRECTLY BELOW. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
TONIGHT.  A BRIEF BOUT OF MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES COULD BE OBSERVED
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD WHERE MORE MODERATE RAINFALL IS
OBSERVED FROM SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS TODAY WILL AGAIN HAVE A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS...AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO
LIGHT TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING. /19/28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN CONTINUED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...IN ADDITION TO AN
INVERTED TROUGH/VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER EAST
CENTRAL TEXAS...WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CULPRITS IN KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.  THE AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY SEEN ON RADAR OVER IN MY
WESTERN ZONES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST AND DEEPER INTO
THE CWA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK-UP THE FURTHER
EAST IT GETS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A SOMEWHAT DRIER/MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE.  MODELS SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION AND THIS TREND IS ALREADY
BEING OBSERVED ON RADAR THIS MORNING. THUS...BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE
FORECAST TODAY TO BE GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55
CORRIDOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.  SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OF THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED VARIETY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55.

AGAIN...NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE IN TERMS OF THE SETUP FOR SATURDAY.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE FEATURE WILL SLIDE A LITTLE FURTHER
EAST INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA SATURDAY.  INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE A
BIT BETTER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.  THEREFORE...SHOWERS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD HANG ON OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MY SOUTHWEST.

ONCE AGAIN...CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN KEEPING HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY.  OBVIOUSLY THIS
WILL BE FURTHERED IN LOCATIONS THAT OBSERVE RAIN.  HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE PEAK IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S BUT WILL BE A TAD WARMER ON
SATURDAY AS THEY GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.  LOWS
BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AND
ONLY SLIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. /19/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE LINGERING OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WEAKENING THROUGH
THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF OUR AREA
AND HELP FILTER IN A LITTLE DRIER AIR INTO OUR CWA ON A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND. PWS WILL RANGE FROM AN INCH AND HALF NORTH TO NEAR
TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING AND DROP BELOW AN INCH AND A
HALF NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY MONDAY MORNING. GREATEST POPS SUNDAY
WILL BE CARRIED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. PWS WILL DROP
FURTHER BY TUESDAY MORNING AND CHANGE VERY LITTLE FOR WEDNESDAY.
GREATEST POPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE CARRIED OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED OVER OUR
DELTA REGION. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S AND THEN BE NEAR NORMAL
IN THE LOWER 90S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL
CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS IN THE UPPER
60S AND BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS WARMER AND DRIER THAN THE GFS. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THAT SURFACE RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE GULF COAST
AND THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE GFS KEEPS LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF
STRENGTHENS MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF STATES. LAST NIGHT`S
MODEL RUN FEATURED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE  DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS
WEAKER AND REMAINS FARTHER NORTH IN THE LATEST RUN. A TREND TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES LOOKS TO BE THE TREND
FOR THE END OF WEEK. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       84  68  88  68 /  55  36  40  31
MERIDIAN      86  67  88  69 /  32  21  47  34
VICKSBURG     82  67  87  67 /  83  38  36  24
HATTIESBURG   87  68  90  71 /  57  19  53  35
NATCHEZ       83  68  86  69 / 100  33  37  26
GREENVILLE    79  67  86  68 /  59  21  26  11
GREENWOOD     81  66  87  67 /  47  20  31  16

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/28/19/22








000
FXUS64 KJAN 010900
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN CONTINUED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...IN ADDITION TO AN
INVERTED TROUGH/VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER EAST
CENTRAL TEXAS...WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CULPRITS IN KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.  THE AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY SEEN ON RADAR OVER IN MY
WESTERN ZONES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST AND DEEPER INTO
THE CWA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK-UP THE FURTHER
EAST IT GETS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A SOMEWHAT DRIER/MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE.  MODELS SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION AND THIS TREND IS ALREADY
BEING OBSERVED ON RADAR THIS MORNING. THUS...BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE
FORECAST TODAY TO BE GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55
CORRIDOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.  SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OF THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED VARIETY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55.

AGAIN...NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE IN TERMS OF THE SETUP FOR SATURDAY.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE FEATURE WILL SLIDE A LITTLE FURTHER
EAST INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA SATURDAY.  INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE A
BIT BETTER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.  THEREFORE...SHOWERS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD HANG ON OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MY SOUTHWEST.

ONCE AGAIN...CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN KEEPING HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY.  OBVIOUSLY THIS
WILL BE FURTHERED IN LOCATIONS THAT OBSERVE RAIN.  HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE PEAK IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S BUT WILL BE A TAD WARMER ON
SATURDAY AS THEY GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.  LOWS
BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AND
ONLY SLIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. /19/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE LINGERING OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WEAKENING THROUGH
THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF OUR AREA
AND HELP FILTER IN A LITTLE DRIER AIR INTO OUR CWA ON A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND. PWS WILL RANGE FROM AN INCH AND HALF NORTH TO NEAR
TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING AND DROP BELOW AN INCH AND A
HALF NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY MONDAY MORNING. GREATEST POPS SUNDAY
WILL BE CARRIED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. PWS WILL DROP
FURTHER BY TUESDAY MORNING AND CHANGE VERY LITTLE FOR WEDNESDAY.
GREATEST POPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE CARRIED OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED OVER OUR
DELTA REGION. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S AND THEN BE NEAR NORMAL
IN THE LOWER 90S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL
CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS IN THE UPPER
60S AND BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS WARMER AND DRIER THAN THE GFS. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THAT SURFACE RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE GULF COAST
AND THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE GFS KEEPS LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF
STRENGTHENS MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF STATES. LAST NIGHT`S
MODEL RUN FEATURED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE  DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS
WEAKER AND REMAINS FARTHER NORTH IN THE LATEST RUN. A TREND TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES LOOKS TO BE THE TREND
FOR THE END OF WEEK. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
THE COURSE OF FRIDAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  A BRIEF BOUT OF
MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES COULD BE OBSERVED THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
PERIOD WHERE MORE MODERATE RAINFALL IS OBSERVED FROM ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY.  WINDS TODAY WILL AGAIN HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT BETWEEN
5-8 KNOTS...AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO CALM LATER THIS
EVENING. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  68  88  68 /  55  36  40  31
MERIDIAN      87  67  88  69 /  32  21  47  34
VICKSBURG     84  67  87  67 /  68  38  36  24
HATTIESBURG   87  68  90  71 /  44  19  53  35
NATCHEZ       84  68  86  69 / 100  33  37  26
GREENVILLE    80  67  86  68 /  59  21  26  11
GREENWOOD     83  66  87  67 /  47  20  31  16

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/22/19









000
FXUS64 KJAN 010900
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN CONTINUED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...IN ADDITION TO AN
INVERTED TROUGH/VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER EAST
CENTRAL TEXAS...WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CULPRITS IN KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.  THE AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY SEEN ON RADAR OVER IN MY
WESTERN ZONES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST AND DEEPER INTO
THE CWA THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK-UP THE FURTHER
EAST IT GETS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A SOMEWHAT DRIER/MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE.  MODELS SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION AND THIS TREND IS ALREADY
BEING OBSERVED ON RADAR THIS MORNING. THUS...BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE
FORECAST TODAY TO BE GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55
CORRIDOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.  SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OF THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED VARIETY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55.

AGAIN...NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE IN TERMS OF THE SETUP FOR SATURDAY.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE FEATURE WILL SLIDE A LITTLE FURTHER
EAST INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA SATURDAY.  INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE A
BIT BETTER COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.  THEREFORE...SHOWERS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD HANG ON OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MY SOUTHWEST.

ONCE AGAIN...CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN KEEPING HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY.  OBVIOUSLY THIS
WILL BE FURTHERED IN LOCATIONS THAT OBSERVE RAIN.  HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE PEAK IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S BUT WILL BE A TAD WARMER ON
SATURDAY AS THEY GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.  LOWS
BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AND
ONLY SLIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. /19/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STILL BE LINGERING OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WEAKENING THROUGH
THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF OUR AREA
AND HELP FILTER IN A LITTLE DRIER AIR INTO OUR CWA ON A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND. PWS WILL RANGE FROM AN INCH AND HALF NORTH TO NEAR
TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING AND DROP BELOW AN INCH AND A
HALF NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY MONDAY MORNING. GREATEST POPS SUNDAY
WILL BE CARRIED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. PWS WILL DROP
FURTHER BY TUESDAY MORNING AND CHANGE VERY LITTLE FOR WEDNESDAY.
GREATEST POPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE CARRIED OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED OVER OUR
DELTA REGION. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S AND THEN BE NEAR NORMAL
IN THE LOWER 90S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL
CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS IN THE UPPER
60S AND BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS WARMER AND DRIER THAN THE GFS. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE THAT SURFACE RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE GULF COAST
AND THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE GFS KEEPS LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER OUR REGION WHILE THE ECMWF
STRENGTHENS MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF STATES. LAST NIGHT`S
MODEL RUN FEATURED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE  DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS
WEAKER AND REMAINS FARTHER NORTH IN THE LATEST RUN. A TREND TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES LOOKS TO BE THE TREND
FOR THE END OF WEEK. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
THE COURSE OF FRIDAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  A BRIEF BOUT OF
MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES COULD BE OBSERVED THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
PERIOD WHERE MORE MODERATE RAINFALL IS OBSERVED FROM ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY.  WINDS TODAY WILL AGAIN HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT BETWEEN
5-8 KNOTS...AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO CALM LATER THIS
EVENING. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  68  88  68 /  55  36  40  31
MERIDIAN      87  67  88  69 /  32  21  47  34
VICKSBURG     84  67  87  67 /  68  38  36  24
HATTIESBURG   87  68  90  71 /  44  19  53  35
NATCHEZ       84  68  86  69 / 100  33  37  26
GREENVILLE    80  67  86  68 /  59  21  26  11
GREENWOOD     83  66  87  67 /  47  20  31  16

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/22/19










000
FXUS64 KJAN 010233
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
933 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS. MOST
LOCATIONS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS WERE ON
THE RISE. RAISED LOWS ABOUT 2 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. MID TO UPPER
60S SEEMED GOOD. LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER MAY STAY IN THE LOWER 70S
OVERNIGHT. NOT MUCH RAIN WAS REACHING THE GROUND...BUT THE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. WITH
LITTLE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...FEEL COMFORTABLE KEEPING THUNDER
OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED THE POPS SLIGHTLY.
KEPT VALUES GENERALLY THE SAME JUST EXPANDED THE CHANCE AREA INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND KEPT ALL AREAS WEST OF THE RIVER LIKELY. WHILE THE RUC
SHOWS SEVERAL WAVES MOVIING ACROSS THE REGION AT 500 MB...THE BEST
CONVECTION WAS HEADED TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST AND WIILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA...AT LEAST FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE..THE FORECAST WAS
GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AN ABUNDANCE OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING
DISTURBANCE. LIGHT SHRA ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MS RIVER...BUT EXPECT REGENERATION OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH EFFECTS MAINLY FELT AT
KGLH/KGWO/KHKS/KJAN. THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT IFR/LIFR
FOG PRODUCTION MOST PLACES...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CATEGORY VSBY UNTIL
ABOUT 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. /EC/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  85  69  88 /  28  38  28  49
MERIDIAN      67  86  67  89 /  18  27  26  55
VICKSBURG     70  84  67  88 /  47  44  32  42
HATTIESBURG   70  89  70  90 /  17  33  29  53
NATCHEZ       70  85  69  89 /  43  44  29  44
GREENVILLE    69  82  69  86 /  43  38  26  35
GREENWOOD     69  83  67  87 /  31  30  27  41

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7/EC






000
FXUS64 KJAN 010233
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
933 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS. MOST
LOCATIONS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS WERE ON
THE RISE. RAISED LOWS ABOUT 2 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. MID TO UPPER
60S SEEMED GOOD. LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER MAY STAY IN THE LOWER 70S
OVERNIGHT. NOT MUCH RAIN WAS REACHING THE GROUND...BUT THE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. WITH
LITTLE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...FEEL COMFORTABLE KEEPING THUNDER
OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED THE POPS SLIGHTLY.
KEPT VALUES GENERALLY THE SAME JUST EXPANDED THE CHANCE AREA INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND KEPT ALL AREAS WEST OF THE RIVER LIKELY. WHILE THE RUC
SHOWS SEVERAL WAVES MOVIING ACROSS THE REGION AT 500 MB...THE BEST
CONVECTION WAS HEADED TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST AND WIILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA...AT LEAST FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE..THE FORECAST WAS
GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AN ABUNDANCE OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING
DISTURBANCE. LIGHT SHRA ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MS RIVER...BUT EXPECT REGENERATION OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH EFFECTS MAINLY FELT AT
KGLH/KGWO/KHKS/KJAN. THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT IFR/LIFR
FOG PRODUCTION MOST PLACES...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CATEGORY VSBY UNTIL
ABOUT 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. /EC/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  85  69  88 /  28  38  28  49
MERIDIAN      67  86  67  89 /  18  27  26  55
VICKSBURG     70  84  67  88 /  47  44  32  42
HATTIESBURG   70  89  70  90 /  17  33  29  53
NATCHEZ       70  85  69  89 /  43  44  29  44
GREENVILLE    69  82  69  86 /  43  38  26  35
GREENWOOD     69  83  67  87 /  31  30  27  41

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7/EC







000
FXUS64 KJAN 312024
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
324 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CONTINUED SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE REMAINS NEARBY.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER
ASSOCIATED WITH A INVERTED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE ARKLATEX
BUT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST MS AS
ONE PIECE OF A H7-H5 S/WV TROUGH EXITS EAST OF THE REGION. THIS
THINNING HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 80S
THIS AFTN FOR SOME AREAS. THESE BELOW NORMAL READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BUT WITH SLOW MODERATION INTO SATURDAY WITH UPPER 80S
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

FOR TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY...MAIN DRIVER OF WEATHER WILL BE
COMBINATION OF INVERTED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER
SABINE RIVER AND EMBEDDED NW FLOW S/WV TROUGHS CROSSING REGION.
GREATEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ACROSS W/SW AREAS SUPPORTING
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOCATIONS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING AND HAVE INCLUDED
CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. MOST ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER GIVEN PASSING
S/WV TROUGH ENERGY. /ALLEN/

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A MUCH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER OUR CWA COME MONDAY. A
1020MB HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MAINTAINING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW THAT WILL LIMIT MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHILE PWS AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER HOLD ON OVER OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
START OUT NEARLY ZONAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY MORNING. GREATEST POPS THURSDAY
WILL BE CARRIED IN THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY DUE TO SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY BUT SHIFT TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. A BRIEF BOUT OF MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES COULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THE MORE MODERATE RAINFALL.  WINDS FOR TODAY WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS...AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO
LIGHT TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  85  69  88 /  23  38  28  49
MERIDIAN      64  86  67  89 /  17  27  26  55
VICKSBURG     66  84  67  88 /  47  44  32  42
HATTIESBURG   65  89  70  90 /  17  33  29  53
NATCHEZ       67  85  69  89 /  43  44  29  44
GREENVILLE    66  82  69  86 /  43  38  26  35
GREENWOOD     66  83  67  87 /  31  30  27  41

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/22/28






000
FXUS64 KJAN 312024
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
324 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CONTINUED SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE REMAINS NEARBY.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER
ASSOCIATED WITH A INVERTED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE ARKLATEX
BUT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST MS AS
ONE PIECE OF A H7-H5 S/WV TROUGH EXITS EAST OF THE REGION. THIS
THINNING HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 80S
THIS AFTN FOR SOME AREAS. THESE BELOW NORMAL READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BUT WITH SLOW MODERATION INTO SATURDAY WITH UPPER 80S
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

FOR TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY...MAIN DRIVER OF WEATHER WILL BE
COMBINATION OF INVERTED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER
SABINE RIVER AND EMBEDDED NW FLOW S/WV TROUGHS CROSSING REGION.
GREATEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ACROSS W/SW AREAS SUPPORTING
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOCATIONS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING AND HAVE INCLUDED
CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. MOST ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER GIVEN PASSING
S/WV TROUGH ENERGY. /ALLEN/

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A MUCH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER OUR CWA COME MONDAY. A
1020MB HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MAINTAINING A DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW THAT WILL LIMIT MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WHILE PWS AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER HOLD ON OVER OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
START OUT NEARLY ZONAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY MORNING. GREATEST POPS THURSDAY
WILL BE CARRIED IN THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY DUE TO SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY BUT SHIFT TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. A BRIEF BOUT OF MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES COULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THE MORE MODERATE RAINFALL.  WINDS FOR TODAY WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS...AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO
LIGHT TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  85  69  88 /  23  38  28  49
MERIDIAN      64  86  67  89 /  17  27  26  55
VICKSBURG     66  84  67  88 /  47  44  32  42
HATTIESBURG   65  89  70  90 /  17  33  29  53
NATCHEZ       67  85  69  89 /  43  44  29  44
GREENVILLE    66  82  69  86 /  43  38  26  35
GREENWOOD     66  83  67  87 /  31  30  27  41

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/22/28







000
FXUS64 KJAN 311431 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
931 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY 3-5F DEGREES DUE TO ONGOING
AND EXPECTED CLOUD AND RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE. HOURLY TEMPERATURES
WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

.DISCUSSION...A S/WV TROUGH OVER AR AND N MS EMBEDDED IN THE H5 NW
FLOW IS RESULTING IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IT
APPEARS THERE ARE SEVERAL SEPARATE S/WV TROUGHS WITH ONE PUSHING
EAST OF REGION THROUGH AFTN BUT ANOTHER REMAINING OVER THE ARKLATEX
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECTING CONTINUED SCATTERED LIGHT TO AT TIMES
MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH AFTN WITH SOME LINGERING OVERNIGHT.
NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND POSITIVE SHOWALTERS STILL LOOK
TO PRECLUDE ANY THUNDER POSSIBILITIES TODAY.

TEXT UPDATES ARE OUT AND GRAPHICS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. AN UPDATED
AVIATION DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND DIRECTLY BELOW. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. A BRIEF BOUT OF MAINLY MVFR
VISIBILITIES COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE MORE MODERATE
RAINFALL. WINDS FOR TODAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5-8
KNOTS...AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING.
/19/28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.  DURING THIS TIME...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EAST INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH TIME THEY
MOVE THROUGH.  ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME GRADUAL MOISTENING AT THE
SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO KEEP ANY CHANCES FOR STORMS
DURING THE SHORT TERM ON THE LOW END.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...BOTH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN CHECK BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY.  HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE DELTA TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.  THEN FOR FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO UPPER 80S.  THEN FOR LOWS...CLOUDS WILL AGAIN AID IN KEEPING
LOWS A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS THEY RANGE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S BOTH NIGHTS. /19/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. PWS WILL START OUT AROUND TWO INCHES SATURDAY AREAWIDE BUT
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL KNOCK PWS DOWN TO AROUND ONE INCH
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR BY SUNDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THROUGH SHIFTING MUCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST. GFSMOS
POPS WERE GOOD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT SATURDAY MAX TEMPERATURES
WERE AMONG THE HIGHEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND A COUPLE DEGREES TOO
WARM FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AREAWIDE. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
NAM WHICH WERE CLOSE. A MUCH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER
OUR CWA COME MONDAY. A 1020MB HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MAINTAINING A DRY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL LIMIT MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHILE PWS AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER
HOLD ON OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
LOWER 90S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL START OFF
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START OUT NEARLY ZONAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY MORNING.
GREATEST POPS THURSDAY WILL BE CARRIED IN THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY
DUE TO SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY BUT SHIFT TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80  65  85  69 /  39  21  39  28
MERIDIAN      81  64  86  67 /  25  19  27  17
VICKSBURG     78  66  84  67 /  53  34  53  35
HATTIESBURG   83  66  89  70 /  26  10  36  21
NATCHEZ       80  64  85  68 /  42  28  52  35
GREENVILLE    77  66  83  69 /  70  34  37  22
GREENWOOD     79  65  83  67 /  58  25  26  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/19/28/22








000
FXUS64 KJAN 311431 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
931 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY 3-5F DEGREES DUE TO ONGOING
AND EXPECTED CLOUD AND RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE. HOURLY TEMPERATURES
WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

.DISCUSSION...A S/WV TROUGH OVER AR AND N MS EMBEDDED IN THE H5 NW
FLOW IS RESULTING IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IT
APPEARS THERE ARE SEVERAL SEPARATE S/WV TROUGHS WITH ONE PUSHING
EAST OF REGION THROUGH AFTN BUT ANOTHER REMAINING OVER THE ARKLATEX
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECTING CONTINUED SCATTERED LIGHT TO AT TIMES
MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH AFTN WITH SOME LINGERING OVERNIGHT.
NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND POSITIVE SHOWALTERS STILL LOOK
TO PRECLUDE ANY THUNDER POSSIBILITIES TODAY.

TEXT UPDATES ARE OUT AND GRAPHICS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. AN UPDATED
AVIATION DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND DIRECTLY BELOW. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. A BRIEF BOUT OF MAINLY MVFR
VISIBILITIES COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE MORE MODERATE
RAINFALL. WINDS FOR TODAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5-8
KNOTS...AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING.
/19/28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.  DURING THIS TIME...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EAST INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH TIME THEY
MOVE THROUGH.  ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME GRADUAL MOISTENING AT THE
SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO KEEP ANY CHANCES FOR STORMS
DURING THE SHORT TERM ON THE LOW END.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...BOTH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN CHECK BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY.  HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE DELTA TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.  THEN FOR FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO UPPER 80S.  THEN FOR LOWS...CLOUDS WILL AGAIN AID IN KEEPING
LOWS A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS THEY RANGE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S BOTH NIGHTS. /19/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. PWS WILL START OUT AROUND TWO INCHES SATURDAY AREAWIDE BUT
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL KNOCK PWS DOWN TO AROUND ONE INCH
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR BY SUNDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THROUGH SHIFTING MUCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST. GFSMOS
POPS WERE GOOD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT SATURDAY MAX TEMPERATURES
WERE AMONG THE HIGHEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND A COUPLE DEGREES TOO
WARM FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AREAWIDE. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
NAM WHICH WERE CLOSE. A MUCH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER
OUR CWA COME MONDAY. A 1020MB HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MAINTAINING A DRY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL LIMIT MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHILE PWS AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER
HOLD ON OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
LOWER 90S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL START OFF
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START OUT NEARLY ZONAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY MORNING.
GREATEST POPS THURSDAY WILL BE CARRIED IN THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY
DUE TO SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY BUT SHIFT TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80  65  85  69 /  39  21  39  28
MERIDIAN      81  64  86  67 /  25  19  27  17
VICKSBURG     78  66  84  67 /  53  34  53  35
HATTIESBURG   83  66  89  70 /  26  10  36  21
NATCHEZ       80  64  85  68 /  42  28  52  35
GREENVILLE    77  66  83  69 /  70  34  37  22
GREENWOOD     79  65  83  67 /  58  25  26  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/19/28/22







000
FXUS64 KJAN 310846
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.  DURING THIS TIME...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EAST INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH TIME THEY
MOVE THROUGH.  ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME GRADUAL MOISTENING AT THE
SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO KEEP ANY CHANCES FOR STORMS
DURING THE SHORT TERM ON THE LOW END.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...BOTH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN CHECK BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY.  HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE DELTA TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.  THEN FOR FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO UPPER 80S.  THEN FOR LOWS...CLOUDS WILL AGAIN AID IN KEEPING
LOWS A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS THEY RANGE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S BOTH NIGHTS. /19/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. PWS WILL START OUT AROUND TWO INCHES SATURDAY AREAWIDE BUT
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL KNOCK PWS DOWN TO AROUND ONE INCH
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR BY SUNDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THROUGH SHIFTING MUCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST. GFSMOS
POPS WERE GOOD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT SATURDAY MAX TEMPERATURES
WERE AMONG THE HIGHEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND A COUPLE DEGREES TOO
WARM FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AREAWIDE. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
NAM WHICH WERE CLOSE. A MUCH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER
OUR CWA COME MONDAY. A 1020MB HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MAINTAINING A DRY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL LIMIT MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHILE PWS AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER
HOLD ON OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
LOWER 90S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL START OFF
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START OUT NEARLY ZONAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY MORNING.
GREATEST POPS THURSDAY WILL BE CARRIED IN THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY
DUE TO SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY BUT SHIFT TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT
SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY BRINGING
RAIN ALONG WITH IT.  A BRIEF BOUT OF MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES COULD
BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE MORE MODERATE RAINFALL.  WINDS FOR
TODAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS...AND GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       84  65  85  69 /  39  21  39  28
MERIDIAN      85  64  86  67 /  25  19  27  17
VICKSBURG     83  66  84  67 /  53  34  53  35
HATTIESBURG   89  66  89  70 /  26  10  36  21
NATCHEZ       84  64  85  68 /  42  28  52  35
GREENVILLE    78  66  83  69 /  70  34  37  22
GREENWOOD     79  65  83  67 /  58  25  26  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/22/19









000
FXUS64 KJAN 310846
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING IN WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.  DURING THIS TIME...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EAST INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH TIME THEY
MOVE THROUGH.  ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME GRADUAL MOISTENING AT THE
SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO KEEP ANY CHANCES FOR STORMS
DURING THE SHORT TERM ON THE LOW END.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...BOTH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN CHECK BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY.  HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE DELTA TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.  THEN FOR FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO UPPER 80S.  THEN FOR LOWS...CLOUDS WILL AGAIN AID IN KEEPING
LOWS A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS THEY RANGE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S BOTH NIGHTS. /19/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. PWS WILL START OUT AROUND TWO INCHES SATURDAY AREAWIDE BUT
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL KNOCK PWS DOWN TO AROUND ONE INCH
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR BY SUNDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THROUGH SHIFTING MUCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST. GFSMOS
POPS WERE GOOD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT SATURDAY MAX TEMPERATURES
WERE AMONG THE HIGHEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND A COUPLE DEGREES TOO
WARM FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AREAWIDE. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
NAM WHICH WERE CLOSE. A MUCH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER
OUR CWA COME MONDAY. A 1020MB HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MAINTAINING A DRY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL LIMIT MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHILE PWS AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER
HOLD ON OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
LOWER 90S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL START OFF
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START OUT NEARLY ZONAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY MORNING.
GREATEST POPS THURSDAY WILL BE CARRIED IN THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY
DUE TO SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY BUT SHIFT TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT
SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY BRINGING
RAIN ALONG WITH IT.  A BRIEF BOUT OF MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES COULD
BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE MORE MODERATE RAINFALL.  WINDS FOR
TODAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS...AND GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO CALM LATER THIS EVENING. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       84  65  85  69 /  39  21  39  28
MERIDIAN      85  64  86  67 /  25  19  27  17
VICKSBURG     83  66  84  67 /  53  34  53  35
HATTIESBURG   89  66  89  70 /  26  10  36  21
NATCHEZ       84  64  85  68 /  42  28  52  35
GREENVILLE    78  66  83  69 /  70  34  37  22
GREENWOOD     79  65  83  67 /  58  25  26  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/22/19










000
FXUS64 KJAN 310226
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
926 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE RAIN WAS
APPROACHING THE AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS. GLH HAS SOME LIGHT RAIN...NOT SURE IT`S REAL. CLOUDS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND AT MOST
LOCATIONS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND A POSSIBLE LIGHT WIND...NOT SURE
ABOUT NEAR RECORD LOWS FOR TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME COLD AIR DRAINAGE
IN THE EAST ZONES...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. THE DEWPOINTS WERE ALREADY
INCREASING IN THE WEST AND TEMPS WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
FOR THIS TIME. MAY MAKE SOME SMALL TWEAKS. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATER AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SURFACE FEATURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY...KICKING OFF THE RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED A DISTURBANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  DESPITE SOME SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE DELTA...KGLH & KGWO...LATER THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /17/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       64  85  67  85 /   8  28  32  38
MERIDIAN      60  86  65  86 /   5  20  21  35
VICKSBURG     64  84  67  84 /  12  34  45  40
HATTIESBURG   61  89  68  89 /   3  20   9  22
NATCHEZ       63  87  69  85 /   7  38  24  44
GREENVILLE    66  78  65  82 /  28  57  50  37
GREENWOOD     63  79  64  83 /  19  46  40  39

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7/17






000
FXUS64 KJAN 310226
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
926 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE RAIN WAS
APPROACHING THE AREA...WITH LIGHT RAIN BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS. GLH HAS SOME LIGHT RAIN...NOT SURE IT`S REAL. CLOUDS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND AT MOST
LOCATIONS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND A POSSIBLE LIGHT WIND...NOT SURE
ABOUT NEAR RECORD LOWS FOR TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME COLD AIR DRAINAGE
IN THE EAST ZONES...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. THE DEWPOINTS WERE ALREADY
INCREASING IN THE WEST AND TEMPS WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
FOR THIS TIME. MAY MAKE SOME SMALL TWEAKS. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATER AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SURFACE FEATURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY...KICKING OFF THE RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED A DISTURBANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  DESPITE SOME SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE DELTA...KGLH & KGWO...LATER THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /17/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       64  85  67  85 /   8  28  32  38
MERIDIAN      60  86  65  86 /   5  20  21  35
VICKSBURG     64  84  67  84 /  12  34  45  40
HATTIESBURG   61  89  68  89 /   3  20   9  22
NATCHEZ       63  87  69  85 /   7  38  24  44
GREENVILLE    66  78  65  82 /  28  57  50  37
GREENWOOD     63  79  64  83 /  19  46  40  39

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7/17







000
FXUS64 KJAN 302035
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
335 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES.  MOISTURE ALOFT IN THE FORM OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES WEST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  THIS WILL BRING SOME
SUBTLE RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO DELTA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST AREAWIDE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  WITH NO
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED AND FORCING AND INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MEAGER THROUGH THE PERIOD...ANY RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...IF ANY...SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT AND HANGING AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...LOWS BOTH
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE RECORD
BREAKING LOWS OBSERVED EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  AS A RESULT...LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S AND RANGE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.  THEN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
BOTH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA...I NUDGED HIGHS DOWN
A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO GUIDANCE...THUS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
OVER THE DELTA TO THE UPPER 80S OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. /19/

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY AND NIGHT WITH A
SLOW MODERATING TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SUGGEST SOME DRYING LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR...BUT OTHERWISE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE EACH DAY. WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH WILL ACT TO FOCUS AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING THESE FEATURES...HAVE KEPT ALL POPS IN THE
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED A DISTURBANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  DESPITE SOME SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE DELTA...KGLH & KGWO...LATER THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       64  85  67  85 /   8  28  32  38
MERIDIAN      60  86  65  86 /   5  20  21  35
VICKSBURG     64  84  67  84 /  12  34  45  40
HATTIESBURG   61  89  68  89 /   3  20   9  22
NATCHEZ       63  87  69  85 /   7  38  24  44
GREENVILLE    66  78  65  82 /  28  57  50  37
GREENWOOD     63  79  64  83 /  19  46  40  39

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/SW






000
FXUS64 KJAN 302035
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
335 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES.  MOISTURE ALOFT IN THE FORM OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES WEST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  THIS WILL BRING SOME
SUBTLE RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO DELTA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST AREAWIDE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  WITH NO
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED AND FORCING AND INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MEAGER THROUGH THE PERIOD...ANY RUMBLES OF
THUNDER...IF ANY...SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT AND HANGING AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...LOWS BOTH
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE RECORD
BREAKING LOWS OBSERVED EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  AS A RESULT...LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S AND RANGE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.  THEN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
BOTH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA...I NUDGED HIGHS DOWN
A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO GUIDANCE...THUS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
OVER THE DELTA TO THE UPPER 80S OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. /19/

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY AND NIGHT WITH A
SLOW MODERATING TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SUGGEST SOME DRYING LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR...BUT OTHERWISE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE EACH DAY. WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH WILL ACT TO FOCUS AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING THESE FEATURES...HAVE KEPT ALL POPS IN THE
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED A DISTURBANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  DESPITE SOME SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE DELTA...KGLH & KGWO...LATER THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       64  85  67  85 /   8  28  32  38
MERIDIAN      60  86  65  86 /   5  20  21  35
VICKSBURG     64  84  67  84 /  12  34  45  40
HATTIESBURG   61  89  68  89 /   3  20   9  22
NATCHEZ       63  87  69  85 /   7  38  24  44
GREENVILLE    66  78  65  82 /  28  57  50  37
GREENWOOD     63  79  64  83 /  19  46  40  39

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/SW







000
FXUS64 KJAN 301534 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1034 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SPILL INTO THE ARKLAMISS
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A
CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL LATE-JULY/MID-SUMMER CONDITIONS AS
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 80S WITH A NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS
RESIDING ACROSS THE REGION.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR TODAY.  THUS...NO MAJOR CHANGES
WILL BE MADE IN THE FORECAST ON THIS UPDATE. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED A DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE DAY.  DESPITE SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
DELTA...KGLH & KGWO...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VERY PLEASANT MORNING BEING
FELT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 60S SOUTHWEST. WHILE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN FALLING OVER THE REGION...ELSEWHERE
LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT GONE CALM AND ALLOWED FOR OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO OCCUR JUST YET. STILL...DO EXPECT CALMING TO OCCUR WITH
ENOUGH TIME FOR MOST AREAS TO BREAK RECORDS BY DAWN.

SKIES FOR THE MOAST PART HAVE BEEN CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CIRRUS HAS BEEN ON
THE INCREASE IN AR AND THE MS DELTA REGION OF LATE. THIS WILL BE THE
TREND TODAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM OVER IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE 305K THETA GETS
UNDERWAY OVER NW PORTIONS IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...LOOKS AS THOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
NOT ALLOW ANY PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SHOWERY PRECIP LOOKS TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY MORNING THEN WANE SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE
PASSES. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT AS ELEVATED LAPSE
RATES ONLY LOOK MOIST ADIABATIC AT BEST.

ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEING FOCUSED IN A SHALLOWER LAYER (305-310K THETA).
WHILE DRIER AIR ABOVE WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE
RATES...STILL NOT LOOKING FOR THUNDER DUE TO LESSER FORCING AND STILL
MEAGER LAPSE RATES./26/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY AND NIGHT
WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SUGGEST SOME DRYING LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR...BUT OTHERWISE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE EACH DAY. WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH WILL ACT TO FOCUS AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING THESE FEATURES...HAVE KEPT ALL POPS IN THE
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY./SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  63  84  66 /   1  11  43  22
MERIDIAN      87  59  87  64 /   1   6  31  19
VICKSBURG     86  63  84  65 /   2  15  50  34
HATTIESBURG   88  62  90  67 /   1   5  27  15
NATCHEZ       85  63  87  66 /   3  10  39  24
GREENVILLE    85  66  78  65 /  12  28  71  35
GREENWOOD     86  63  80  62 /   5  19  62  27

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KJAN 300852
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
352 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VERY PLEASANT MORNING BEING
FELT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 60S SOUTHWEST. WHILE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN FALLING OVER THE REGION...ELSEWHERE
LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT GONE CALM AND ALLOWED FOR OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO OCCUR JUST YET. STILL...DO EXPECT CALMING TO OCCUR WITH
ENOUGH TIME FOR MOST AREAS TO BREAK RECORDS BY DAWN.

SKIES FOR THE MOAST PART HAVE BEEN CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CIRRUS HAS BEEN ON
THE INCREASE IN AR AND THE MS DELTA REGION OF LATE. THIS WILL BE THE
TREND TODAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM OVER IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE 305K THETA GETS
UNDERWAY OVER NW PORTIONS IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...LOOKS AS THOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
NOT ALLOW ANY PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SHOWERY PRECIP LOOKS TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY MORNING THEN WANE SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE
PASSES. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT AS ELEVATED LAPSE
RATES ONLY LOOK MOIST ADIABATIC AT BEST.

ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEING FOCUSED IN A SHALLOWER LAYER (305-310K THETA).
WHILE DRIER AIR ABOVE WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE
RATES...STILL NOT LOOKING FOR THUNDER DUE TO LESSER FORCING AND STILL
MEAGER LAPSE RATES./26/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY AND NIGHT
WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SUGGEST SOME DRYING LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR...BUT OTHERWISE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE EACH DAY. WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH WILL ACT TO FOCUS AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING THESE FEATURES...HAVE KEPT ALL POPS IN THE
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY./SW/

&&

.AVIATION...ALTHOUGH CIRRUS AND EVENTUALLY AC WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE NW...FLIGHT RULES WILL REMAIN VISUAL THROUGH THE PERIOD./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  63  84  66 /   1  11  43  22
MERIDIAN      87  59  87  64 /   1   6  31  19
VICKSBURG     86  63  84  65 /   2  15  50  34
HATTIESBURG   88  62  90  67 /   1   5  27  15
NATCHEZ       85  63  87  66 /   3  10  39  24
GREENVILLE    85  66  78  65 /  12  28  71  35
GREENWOOD     86  63  80  62 /   5  19  62  27

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 300852
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
352 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VERY PLEASANT MORNING BEING
FELT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 60S SOUTHWEST. WHILE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN FALLING OVER THE REGION...ELSEWHERE
LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT GONE CALM AND ALLOWED FOR OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO OCCUR JUST YET. STILL...DO EXPECT CALMING TO OCCUR WITH
ENOUGH TIME FOR MOST AREAS TO BREAK RECORDS BY DAWN.

SKIES FOR THE MOAST PART HAVE BEEN CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CIRRUS HAS BEEN ON
THE INCREASE IN AR AND THE MS DELTA REGION OF LATE. THIS WILL BE THE
TREND TODAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM OVER IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE 305K THETA GETS
UNDERWAY OVER NW PORTIONS IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...LOOKS AS THOUGH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
NOT ALLOW ANY PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SHOWERY PRECIP LOOKS TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY MORNING THEN WANE SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE
PASSES. NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT AS ELEVATED LAPSE
RATES ONLY LOOK MOIST ADIABATIC AT BEST.

ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEING FOCUSED IN A SHALLOWER LAYER (305-310K THETA).
WHILE DRIER AIR ABOVE WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE
RATES...STILL NOT LOOKING FOR THUNDER DUE TO LESSER FORCING AND STILL
MEAGER LAPSE RATES./26/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY AND NIGHT
WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SUGGEST SOME DRYING LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR...BUT OTHERWISE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE EACH DAY. WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH WILL ACT TO FOCUS AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING THESE FEATURES...HAVE KEPT ALL POPS IN THE
CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY./SW/

&&

.AVIATION...ALTHOUGH CIRRUS AND EVENTUALLY AC WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE NW...FLIGHT RULES WILL REMAIN VISUAL THROUGH THE PERIOD./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  63  84  66 /   1  11  43  22
MERIDIAN      87  59  87  64 /   1   6  31  19
VICKSBURG     86  63  84  65 /   2  15  50  34
HATTIESBURG   88  62  90  67 /   1   5  27  15
NATCHEZ       85  63  87  66 /   3  10  39  24
GREENVILLE    85  66  78  65 /  12  28  71  35
GREENWOOD     86  63  80  62 /   5  19  62  27

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 300232
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
932 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY SOME BLOW OFF FROM
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH
MOSTLY STREAKS OF CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST AND LOWER TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST. LOOKS LIKE
DRIER AIR WAS ALREADY DRAINING INTO THE AREA WITH VALUES IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S FOR MANY AREAS NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-55.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO A LITTLE COOLER...SO ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
VALUES. OVERALL THE FORECAST WAS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...QUIET CONDITIONS FOR 95 PERCENT OF THE TAF PERIOD AS VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE ONLY ISSUES THAT MAY ARISE WILL BE IN
THE MORNING WHERE SOME MVFR VIS CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN
10-13Z. /CME/



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       60  87  64  85 /   0   2  10  36
MERIDIAN      56  86  61  87 /   0   0  10  31
VICKSBURG     59  87  64  85 /   0   5  15  47
HATTIESBURG   60  88  64  90 /   0   0   4  25
NATCHEZ       60  86  64  87 /   0   7   9  28
GREENVILLE    62  85  66  79 /   0  10  24  58
GREENWOOD     58  85  62  79 /   0   5  16  51

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7






000
FXUS64 KJAN 300232
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
932 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY SOME BLOW OFF FROM
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH
MOSTLY STREAKS OF CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST AND LOWER TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST. LOOKS LIKE
DRIER AIR WAS ALREADY DRAINING INTO THE AREA WITH VALUES IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S FOR MANY AREAS NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-55.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO A LITTLE COOLER...SO ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
VALUES. OVERALL THE FORECAST WAS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...QUIET CONDITIONS FOR 95 PERCENT OF THE TAF PERIOD AS VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE ONLY ISSUES THAT MAY ARISE WILL BE IN
THE MORNING WHERE SOME MVFR VIS CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN
10-13Z. /CME/



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       60  87  64  85 /   0   2  10  36
MERIDIAN      56  86  61  87 /   0   0  10  31
VICKSBURG     59  87  64  85 /   0   5  15  47
HATTIESBURG   60  88  64  90 /   0   0   4  25
NATCHEZ       60  86  64  87 /   0   7   9  28
GREENVILLE    62  85  66  79 /   0  10  24  58
GREENWOOD     58  85  62  79 /   0   5  16  51

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7







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