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000
FXUS64 KJAN 021007
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
507 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS LATE TONIGHT. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO INITIATE A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WEST OF
THE ARKLAMISS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THE LINE OF STORMS IS FORECAST BY MOST HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE
TO APPROACH AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE UPPER ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT PEAK CONVECTIVE INTENSITY WILL OCCUR
BEFORE THIS TIME AS INSTABILITY AND FORCING WANE ARE EXPECTED TO WANE
DURING THE EVENING...BUT WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND WSW 0-3 KM
SHEAR VECTORS NEARLY NORMAL TO THE LINE...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
SEVERE WEATHER GOING IN THE HAZARD PRODUCTS FOR THE DELTA REGION
INCLUDING THE MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
INSTABILITY/FORCING AND THE LCS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FARTHER
EAST ACROSS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
QUICK DECREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DELTA
REGION. THE CAVEAT WILL BE TO WATCH FOR QUICKER SYSTEM SPEED AND
EARLIER APPROACH OF CONVECTION THAT COULD RESULT IN GREATER STORM
INTENSITY.

AHEAD OF THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY...A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM
WITH SOME READINGS APPROACHING 90 DEG F WHILE HEAT INDICES REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH SOME DURING THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
/EC/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...

A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING...HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE MIDDLE 70S ON
SATURDAY...WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80 EXPECTED SUNDAY. CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AS LOWS
FALL INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 40S. THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL
BE A TAD WARMER AS THEY FALL INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS.  A
WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWING EAST INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL BRING SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THAT TIME.  HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CATEGORY CIGS THIS MORNING IN
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD MIX UP TO VFR CATEGORY BY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SQUALL LINE IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH GREATEST IMPACTS EXPECTED AT
GWO/GLH AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THEN A WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND
MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /EC/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  70  84  47 /  51  83  35   0
MERIDIAN      89  68  83  45 /  50  76  60   8
VICKSBURG     92  68  85  46 /  50  87  21   0
HATTIESBURG   89  72  88  55 /  52  52  60   7
NATCHEZ       88  69  80  50 /  52  83  24   0
GREENVILLE    90  67  82  47 /  49  88  16   0
GREENWOOD     90  66  80  44 /  52  90  29   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

EC/19/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 021007
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
507 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS LATE TONIGHT. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO INITIATE A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WEST OF
THE ARKLAMISS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THE LINE OF STORMS IS FORECAST BY MOST HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE
TO APPROACH AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE UPPER ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT PEAK CONVECTIVE INTENSITY WILL OCCUR
BEFORE THIS TIME AS INSTABILITY AND FORCING WANE ARE EXPECTED TO WANE
DURING THE EVENING...BUT WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND WSW 0-3 KM
SHEAR VECTORS NEARLY NORMAL TO THE LINE...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
SEVERE WEATHER GOING IN THE HAZARD PRODUCTS FOR THE DELTA REGION
INCLUDING THE MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
INSTABILITY/FORCING AND THE LCS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FARTHER
EAST ACROSS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
QUICK DECREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DELTA
REGION. THE CAVEAT WILL BE TO WATCH FOR QUICKER SYSTEM SPEED AND
EARLIER APPROACH OF CONVECTION THAT COULD RESULT IN GREATER STORM
INTENSITY.

AHEAD OF THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY...A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM
WITH SOME READINGS APPROACHING 90 DEG F WHILE HEAT INDICES REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH SOME DURING THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
/EC/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...

A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING...HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE MIDDLE 70S ON
SATURDAY...WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80 EXPECTED SUNDAY. CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AS LOWS
FALL INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 40S. THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL
BE A TAD WARMER AS THEY FALL INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS.  A
WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWING EAST INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL BRING SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THAT TIME.  HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CATEGORY CIGS THIS MORNING IN
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD MIX UP TO VFR CATEGORY BY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SQUALL LINE IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH GREATEST IMPACTS EXPECTED AT
GWO/GLH AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THEN A WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND
MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /EC/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  70  84  47 /  51  83  35   0
MERIDIAN      89  68  83  45 /  50  76  60   8
VICKSBURG     92  68  85  46 /  50  87  21   0
HATTIESBURG   89  72  88  55 /  52  52  60   7
NATCHEZ       88  69  80  50 /  52  83  24   0
GREENVILLE    90  67  82  47 /  49  88  16   0
GREENWOOD     90  66  80  44 /  52  90  29   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

EC/19/







000
FXUS64 KJAN 020218
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
918 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CWA...SO REMOVED THE RAIN
FOR TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WAS CONFINED TO THE SOUTH...WITH
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE CWA THAT DIED WHEN THE SUN WENT DOWN.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. WINDS WERE STILL GOING
FROM 5 TO 10 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE SLOWLY
INCREASING...SO TEMPS SHOULD FALL SLOWLY. LOOKING FOR WINDS TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SO ADDED PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.
INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED...SO RAISED LOWS SLIGHTLY. LOWER 70S SEEM
OK BUT COULD BE A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WAS SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE EAST...BUT LOWS SHOULD STILL BE
AROUND 70. OVERALL THE FORECAST WAS GOOD. TWEAKED THE HOURLY VALUES
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WARMER TEMPS IN THE WEST.

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM 10 TO 15
UTC DUE MAINLY TO LOW CEILINGS. IFR CONDITIONS AND SOME FOG WILL BE
MORE LIKELY IN THIS TIME FRAME AT PIB/HBG. A COMPLETE BREAK OUT TO
ALL VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE HARD TO COME BY UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. MORE CONSOLIDATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTH
WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH AND A LITTLE GUSTY AT
TIMES. /BB/



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  89  71  82 /  12  53  60  36
MERIDIAN      69  90  71  83 /  12  53  65  48
VICKSBURG     71  90  68  82 /  12  45  61  26
HATTIESBURG   72  91  72  86 /  12  56  51  44
NATCHEZ       72  90  68  82 /  12  44  61  29
GREENVILLE    70  91  68  79 /  13  42  61  20
GREENWOOD     69  90  68  79 /  15  49  61  31

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7/BB








000
FXUS64 KJAN 012049
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT THANKS TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
MOIST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WHILE WE CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND WARM
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS CONTINUING TO BE ON
THE WARM SIDE...MAINLY IN THE 90S.

LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ON IN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER...LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO REDUCE THE SEVERE
THREAT RISK. LOWER LAPSE RATES AND WARMER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD
GREATLY LIMIT ANY HAIL RISK. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO
ALLOW FOR SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND MAYBE A FEW TORNADOES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN MS FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT THE RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIMINISHED GIVEN WEAKER FORCING AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WHILE
TEMPERATURES MAY STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 SOUTH.

AS FOR GUIDANCE...WENT CLOSE TO A BLEND OF MAV AND GMOS FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...AND WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR POPS EXCEPT FOR
TONIGHT WHICH WERE CUT DUE TO THE LATEST TRENDS. /27/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE IN THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE. HIGHS MAY
NOT REACH 70 DEG F OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MS SATURDAY UNDER
SUNNY SKIES...AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL MS
POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. THE GUIDANCE SEEMS AGGRESSIVE
WITH THESE LOWS...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS/DRY SOILS AND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD...THE GUIDANCE SHOULD BE
CLOSE. QUICK MODERATION OF THE DRY, COOL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL THROUGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MAY BRING SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. /EC/


&&

.AVIATION...AT MIDAFTERNOON VFR CONDITIONS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
REGION. ALL SITES WILL RESUME VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED FOR TONIGHT AND WILL NOT MENTION IN
TAFS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AFTER
10Z...WHICH WILL LIFT BY 14-15Z TO VFR CONDITIONS. /17/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  89  71  82 /  20  53  60  36
MERIDIAN      68  90  71  83 /  20  53  65  48
VICKSBURG     70  90  68  82 /  20  45  61  26
HATTIESBURG   70  91  72  86 /  20  56  51  44
NATCHEZ       72  90  68  82 /  20  44  61  29
GREENVILLE    69  91  68  79 /  20  42  61  20
GREENWOOD     69  90  68  79 /  20  49  61  31

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 012049
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT THANKS TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
MOIST FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WHILE WE CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND WARM
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS CONTINUING TO BE ON
THE WARM SIDE...MAINLY IN THE 90S.

LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ON IN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER...LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO REDUCE THE SEVERE
THREAT RISK. LOWER LAPSE RATES AND WARMER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD
GREATLY LIMIT ANY HAIL RISK. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO
ALLOW FOR SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND MAYBE A FEW TORNADOES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN MS FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT THE RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIMINISHED GIVEN WEAKER FORCING AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WHILE
TEMPERATURES MAY STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 SOUTH.

AS FOR GUIDANCE...WENT CLOSE TO A BLEND OF MAV AND GMOS FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...AND WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR POPS EXCEPT FOR
TONIGHT WHICH WERE CUT DUE TO THE LATEST TRENDS. /27/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE IN THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE. HIGHS MAY
NOT REACH 70 DEG F OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MS SATURDAY UNDER
SUNNY SKIES...AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL MS
POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. THE GUIDANCE SEEMS AGGRESSIVE
WITH THESE LOWS...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS/DRY SOILS AND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD...THE GUIDANCE SHOULD BE
CLOSE. QUICK MODERATION OF THE DRY, COOL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL THROUGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MAY BRING SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. /EC/


&&

.AVIATION...AT MIDAFTERNOON VFR CONDITIONS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
REGION. ALL SITES WILL RESUME VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED FOR TONIGHT AND WILL NOT MENTION IN
TAFS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AFTER
10Z...WHICH WILL LIFT BY 14-15Z TO VFR CONDITIONS. /17/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  89  71  82 /  20  53  60  36
MERIDIAN      68  90  71  83 /  20  53  65  48
VICKSBURG     70  90  68  82 /  20  45  61  26
HATTIESBURG   70  91  72  86 /  20  56  51  44
NATCHEZ       72  90  68  82 /  20  44  61  29
GREENVILLE    69  91  68  79 /  20  42  61  20
GREENWOOD     69  90  68  79 /  20  49  61  31

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 011734 AAD
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1234 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVERAGE...AND REDUCED POPS AFTER LOOKING
AT LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. /27/17/


&&

.AVIATION...LATE THIS MORNING WE WERE HAVING SOME IFR-MVFR STRATUS ACROSS
A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY THE
17Z. ALL SITES WILL RESUME VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE I-55 AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD REDUCE CATEGORIES BRIEFLY. /17/28/


&&

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...448 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ZONAL TODAY BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LATEST 00Z RAOB SHOWS
DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH 1.37 INCH PW VALUES ON
KJAN...AND JUST UNDER AN INCH ON KLZK. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS JUST TO
OUR SOUTH WITH 1.68 INCH PW VALUES NOTED ON KLIX 00Z SOUNDING AND
1.84 INCHES ON KLCH. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE LOWER
60S/UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS REMAIN ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE MID
TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT SHOULD SHIFT MORE
OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL
MAKE A RETURN BACK TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH...NEAR 1.8
INCHES ALONG I-20 AND EVEN AROUND 1.5-1.6 INCHES IN THE DELTA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING(WITH HIGHS
AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S) WILL COMBINE
WITH THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO CREATE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST.

GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY MOIST
FLOW...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS TO THE EAST...BEING LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WHILE OUR REGION CONTINUES TO MOISTEN
AND WARM AHEAD OF THIS AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 90S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY. WE WILL SEE MORE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN ACTIVITY TOO AS HEATING COMBINES WITH THIS MOIST AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

AS THE FRONT NEARS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DELTA. MODELS SHOW THAT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE INCREASING IN THIS AREA.
30-40KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH ML CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000-1300 J/KG. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED
JUST A LITTLE SINCE LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS AND THIS COULD BE COMING
THROUGH MORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT THAN THE EVENING. EITHER
WAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN
THE HWO AND GRAPHICS. /28/

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN MS
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE DIMINISHED GIVEN WEAKER FORCING AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WHILE
TEMPERATURES MAY STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL FOR THE ARKLAMISS.

THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CONTINUES TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE IN THE MOST
RECENT GUIDANCE. HIGHS MAY NOT REACH 70 DEG F OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL MS SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES...AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL MS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
THE GUIDANCE SEEMS AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE LOWS...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS/DRY SOILS AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD...THE GUIDANCE SHOULD BE CLOSE. QUICK MODERATION OF THE DRY,
COOL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL THROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING SHOWERS MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  71  89  69 /  17  27  45  81
MERIDIAN      89  68  92  72 /   3  21  39  67
VICKSBURG     91  71  89  69 /  28  20  43  83
HATTIESBURG   89  69  90  73 /  19  26  48  52
NATCHEZ       89  73  87  70 /  29  20  48  81
GREENVILLE    92  69  90  71 /  16  23  37  91
GREENWOOD     91  69  91  70 /  12  27  42  91

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 011734 AAD
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1234 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVERAGE...AND REDUCED POPS AFTER LOOKING
AT LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. /27/17/


&&

.AVIATION...LATE THIS MORNING WE WERE HAVING SOME IFR-MVFR STRATUS ACROSS
A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY THE
17Z. ALL SITES WILL RESUME VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE I-55 AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD REDUCE CATEGORIES BRIEFLY. /17/28/


&&

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...448 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ZONAL TODAY BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LATEST 00Z RAOB SHOWS
DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH 1.37 INCH PW VALUES ON
KJAN...AND JUST UNDER AN INCH ON KLZK. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS JUST TO
OUR SOUTH WITH 1.68 INCH PW VALUES NOTED ON KLIX 00Z SOUNDING AND
1.84 INCHES ON KLCH. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE LOWER
60S/UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS REMAIN ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE MID
TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT SHOULD SHIFT MORE
OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL
MAKE A RETURN BACK TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH...NEAR 1.8
INCHES ALONG I-20 AND EVEN AROUND 1.5-1.6 INCHES IN THE DELTA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING(WITH HIGHS
AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S) WILL COMBINE
WITH THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO CREATE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST.

GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY MOIST
FLOW...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS TO THE EAST...BEING LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WHILE OUR REGION CONTINUES TO MOISTEN
AND WARM AHEAD OF THIS AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 90S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY. WE WILL SEE MORE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN ACTIVITY TOO AS HEATING COMBINES WITH THIS MOIST AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

AS THE FRONT NEARS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DELTA. MODELS SHOW THAT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE INCREASING IN THIS AREA.
30-40KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH ML CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000-1300 J/KG. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED
JUST A LITTLE SINCE LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS AND THIS COULD BE COMING
THROUGH MORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT THAN THE EVENING. EITHER
WAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN
THE HWO AND GRAPHICS. /28/

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN MS
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE DIMINISHED GIVEN WEAKER FORCING AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WHILE
TEMPERATURES MAY STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL FOR THE ARKLAMISS.

THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CONTINUES TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE IN THE MOST
RECENT GUIDANCE. HIGHS MAY NOT REACH 70 DEG F OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL MS SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES...AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL MS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
THE GUIDANCE SEEMS AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE LOWS...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS/DRY SOILS AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD...THE GUIDANCE SHOULD BE CLOSE. QUICK MODERATION OF THE DRY,
COOL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL THROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING SHOWERS MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  71  89  69 /  17  27  45  81
MERIDIAN      89  68  92  72 /   3  21  39  67
VICKSBURG     91  71  89  69 /  28  20  43  83
HATTIESBURG   89  69  90  73 /  19  26  48  52
NATCHEZ       89  73  87  70 /  29  20  48  81
GREENVILLE    92  69  90  71 /  16  23  37  91
GREENWOOD     91  69  91  70 /  12  27  42  91

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 011718 AAB
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1218 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVERAGE...AND REDUCED POPS AFTER LOOKING
AT LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. /27/17/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  89  69  82 /  27  45  81  36
MERIDIAN      68  92  72  82 /  21  39  67  51
VICKSBURG     71  89  69  84 /  20  43  83  21
HATTIESBURG   69  90  73  86 /  26  48  52  52
NATCHEZ       73  87  70  80 /  20  48  81  25
GREENVILLE    69  90  71  81 /  23  37  91  16
GREENWOOD     69  91  70  79 /  27  42  91  29

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 011718 AAB
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1218 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVERAGE...AND REDUCED POPS AFTER LOOKING
AT LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. /27/17/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  89  69  82 /  27  45  81  36
MERIDIAN      68  92  72  82 /  21  39  67  51
VICKSBURG     71  89  69  84 /  20  43  83  21
HATTIESBURG   69  90  73  86 /  26  48  52  52
NATCHEZ       73  87  70  80 /  20  48  81  25
GREENVILLE    69  90  71  81 /  23  37  91  16
GREENWOOD     69  91  70  79 /  27  42  91  29

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 011527 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1027 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING WAS SHOWING MEAN
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WAS A MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS A WARM FRONT WAS APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
THERE WAS DEEP MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITH LCH HAVING PWATS
OF 2.26 INCHES. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST.

WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. LATEST WRF SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT MAINLY THE WESTERN AREAS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT. HIGHS
TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AS FOR CURRENT FCST
CHANGES...SCALED BACK THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND
AFTERNOON HEATING. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...LATE THIS MORNING WE WERE HAVING SOME IFR-MVFR STRATUS ACROSS
A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY THE
17Z. ALL SITES WILL RESUME VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE I-55 AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD REDUCE CATEGORIES BRIEFLY. /17/28/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 AM OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF UNDER THE
STRATUS. SO HAVE ADDED THIS FEATURE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
FORECAST./17/

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...448 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ZONAL TODAY BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LATEST 00Z RAOB SHOWS
DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH 1.37 INCH PW VALUES ON
KJAN...AND JUST UNDER AN INCH ON KLZK. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS JUST TO
OUR SOUTH WITH 1.68 INCH PW VALUES NOTED ON KLIX 00Z SOUNDING AND
1.84 INCHES ON KLCH. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE LOWER
60S/UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS REMAIN ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE MID
TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT SHOULD SHIFT MORE
OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL
MAKE A RETURN BACK TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH...NEAR 1.8
INCHES ALONG I-20 AND EVEN AROUND 1.5-1.6 INCHES IN THE DELTA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING(WITH HIGHS
AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S) WILL COMBINE
WITH THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO CREATE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST.

GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY MOIST
FLOW...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS TO THE EAST...BEING LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WHILE OUR REGION CONTINUES TO MOISTEN
AND WARM AHEAD OF THIS AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 90S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY. WE WILL SEE MORE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN ACTIVITY TOO AS HEATING COMBINES WITH THIS MOIST AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

AS THE FRONT NEARS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DELTA. MODELS SHOW THAT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE INCREASING IN THIS AREA.
30-40KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH ML CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000-1300 J/KG. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED
JUST A LITTLE SINCE LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS AND THIS COULD BE COMING
THROUGH MORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT THAN THE EVENING. EITHER
WAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN
THE HWO AND GRAPHICS. /28/

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN MS
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE DIMINISHED GIVEN WEAKER FORCING AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WHILE
TEMPERATURES MAY STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL FOR THE ARKLAMISS.

THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CONTINUES TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE IN THE MOST
RECENT GUIDANCE. HIGHS MAY NOT REACH 70 DEG F OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL MS SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES...AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL MS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
THE GUIDANCE SEEMS AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE LOWS...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS/DRY SOILS AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD...THE GUIDANCE SHOULD BE CLOSE. QUICK MODERATION OF THE DRY,
COOL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL THROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING SHOWERS MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  71  89  69 /  33  27  45  81
MERIDIAN      86  68  92  72 /  10  21  39  67
VICKSBURG     87  71  89  69 /  46  20  43  83
HATTIESBURG   87  69  90  73 /  30  26  48  52
NATCHEZ       85  73  87  70 /  57  20  48  81
GREENVILLE    89  69  90  71 /  33  23  37  91
GREENWOOD     89  69  91  70 /  20  27  42  91

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 011527 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1027 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING WAS SHOWING MEAN
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WAS A MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS A WARM FRONT WAS APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
THERE WAS DEEP MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITH LCH HAVING PWATS
OF 2.26 INCHES. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST.

WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. LATEST WRF SHOWS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT MAINLY THE WESTERN AREAS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT. HIGHS
TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AS FOR CURRENT FCST
CHANGES...SCALED BACK THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND
AFTERNOON HEATING. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...LATE THIS MORNING WE WERE HAVING SOME IFR-MVFR STRATUS ACROSS
A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY THE
17Z. ALL SITES WILL RESUME VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE I-55 AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD REDUCE CATEGORIES BRIEFLY. /17/28/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 AM OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF UNDER THE
STRATUS. SO HAVE ADDED THIS FEATURE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
FORECAST./17/

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...448 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ZONAL TODAY BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LATEST 00Z RAOB SHOWS
DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH 1.37 INCH PW VALUES ON
KJAN...AND JUST UNDER AN INCH ON KLZK. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS JUST TO
OUR SOUTH WITH 1.68 INCH PW VALUES NOTED ON KLIX 00Z SOUNDING AND
1.84 INCHES ON KLCH. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE LOWER
60S/UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS REMAIN ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE MID
TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT SHOULD SHIFT MORE
OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL
MAKE A RETURN BACK TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH...NEAR 1.8
INCHES ALONG I-20 AND EVEN AROUND 1.5-1.6 INCHES IN THE DELTA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING(WITH HIGHS
AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S) WILL COMBINE
WITH THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO CREATE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST.

GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY MOIST
FLOW...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS TO THE EAST...BEING LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WHILE OUR REGION CONTINUES TO MOISTEN
AND WARM AHEAD OF THIS AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 90S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY. WE WILL SEE MORE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN ACTIVITY TOO AS HEATING COMBINES WITH THIS MOIST AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

AS THE FRONT NEARS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DELTA. MODELS SHOW THAT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE INCREASING IN THIS AREA.
30-40KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH ML CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000-1300 J/KG. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED
JUST A LITTLE SINCE LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS AND THIS COULD BE COMING
THROUGH MORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT THAN THE EVENING. EITHER
WAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN
THE HWO AND GRAPHICS. /28/

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN MS
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE DIMINISHED GIVEN WEAKER FORCING AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WHILE
TEMPERATURES MAY STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL FOR THE ARKLAMISS.

THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CONTINUES TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE IN THE MOST
RECENT GUIDANCE. HIGHS MAY NOT REACH 70 DEG F OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL MS SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES...AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL MS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
THE GUIDANCE SEEMS AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE LOWS...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS/DRY SOILS AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD...THE GUIDANCE SHOULD BE CLOSE. QUICK MODERATION OF THE DRY,
COOL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL THROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING SHOWERS MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  71  89  69 /  33  27  45  81
MERIDIAN      86  68  92  72 /  10  21  39  67
VICKSBURG     87  71  89  69 /  46  20  43  83
HATTIESBURG   87  69  90  73 /  30  26  48  52
NATCHEZ       85  73  87  70 /  57  20  48  81
GREENVILLE    89  69  90  71 /  33  23  37  91
GREENWOOD     89  69  91  70 /  20  27  42  91

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 011216 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
715 AM OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF UNDER THE
STRATUS. SO HAVE ADDED THIS FEATURE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
FORECAST./17/


./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...448 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ZONAL TODAY BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LATEST 00Z RAOB SHOWS
DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH 1.37 INCH PW VALUES ON
KJAN...AND JUST UNDER AN INCH ON KLZK. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS JUST TO
OUR SOUTH WITH 1.68 INCH PW VALUES NOTED ON KLIX 00Z SOUNDING AND
1.84 INCHES ON KLCH. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE LOWER
60S/UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS REMAIN ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE MID
TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT SHOULD SHIFT MORE
OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL
MAKE A RETURN BACK TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH...NEAR 1.8
INCHES ALONG I-20 AND EVEN AROUND 1.5-1.6 INCHES IN THE DELTA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING(WITH HIGHS
AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S) WILL COMBINE
WITH THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO CREATE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST.

GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY MOIST
FLOW...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS TO THE EAST...BEING LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WHILE OUR REGION CONTINUES TO MOISTEN
AND WARM AHEAD OF THIS AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 90S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY. WE WILL SEE MORE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN ACTIVITY TOO AS HEATING COMBINES WITH THIS MOIST AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

AS THE FRONT NEARS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DELTA. MODELS SHOW THAT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE INCREASING IN THIS AREA.
30-40KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH ML CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000-1300 J/KG. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED
JUST A LITTLE SINCE LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS AND THIS COULD BE COMING
THROUGH MORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT THAN THE EVENING. EITHER
WAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN
THE HWO AND GRAPHICS. /28/

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN MS
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE DIMINISHED GIVEN WEAKER FORCING AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WHILE
TEMPERATURES MAY STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL FOR THE ARKLAMISS.

THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CONTINUES TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE IN THE MOST
RECENT GUIDANCE. HIGHS MAY NOT REACH 70 DEG F OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL MS SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES...AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL MS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
THE GUIDANCE SEEMS AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE LOWS...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS/DRY SOILS AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD...THE GUIDANCE SHOULD BE CLOSE. QUICK MODERATION OF THE DRY,
COOL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL THROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING SHOWERS MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE
STILL CAN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILING/VIS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
AT KMEI/KHBG 10-14Z. FOLLOWING THIS...ALL SITES WILL RESUME VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISO TO SCT TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
I-55 AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD REDUCE CATEGORIES BRIEFLY.
/28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  71  89  69 /  33  27  45  81
MERIDIAN      90  68  92  72 /  10  21  39  67
VICKSBURG     92  71  89  69 /  46  20  43  83
HATTIESBURG   90  69  90  73 /  30  26  48  52
NATCHEZ       88  73  87  70 /  57  20  48  81
GREENVILLE    92  69  90  71 /  33  23  37  91
GREENWOOD     91  69  91  70 /  20  27  42  91

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

28/EC/










000
FXUS64 KJAN 011216 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
715 AM OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF UNDER THE
STRATUS. SO HAVE ADDED THIS FEATURE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
FORECAST./17/


./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...448 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ZONAL TODAY BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LATEST 00Z RAOB SHOWS
DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH 1.37 INCH PW VALUES ON
KJAN...AND JUST UNDER AN INCH ON KLZK. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS JUST TO
OUR SOUTH WITH 1.68 INCH PW VALUES NOTED ON KLIX 00Z SOUNDING AND
1.84 INCHES ON KLCH. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE LOWER
60S/UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS REMAIN ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE MID
TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT SHOULD SHIFT MORE
OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL
MAKE A RETURN BACK TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH...NEAR 1.8
INCHES ALONG I-20 AND EVEN AROUND 1.5-1.6 INCHES IN THE DELTA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING(WITH HIGHS
AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S) WILL COMBINE
WITH THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO CREATE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST.

GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY MOIST
FLOW...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS TO THE EAST...BEING LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WHILE OUR REGION CONTINUES TO MOISTEN
AND WARM AHEAD OF THIS AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 90S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY. WE WILL SEE MORE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN ACTIVITY TOO AS HEATING COMBINES WITH THIS MOIST AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

AS THE FRONT NEARS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DELTA. MODELS SHOW THAT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE INCREASING IN THIS AREA.
30-40KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH ML CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000-1300 J/KG. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED
JUST A LITTLE SINCE LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS AND THIS COULD BE COMING
THROUGH MORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT THAN THE EVENING. EITHER
WAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN
THE HWO AND GRAPHICS. /28/

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN MS
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE DIMINISHED GIVEN WEAKER FORCING AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WHILE
TEMPERATURES MAY STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL FOR THE ARKLAMISS.

THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CONTINUES TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE IN THE MOST
RECENT GUIDANCE. HIGHS MAY NOT REACH 70 DEG F OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL MS SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES...AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL MS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
THE GUIDANCE SEEMS AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE LOWS...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS/DRY SOILS AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD...THE GUIDANCE SHOULD BE CLOSE. QUICK MODERATION OF THE DRY,
COOL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL THROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING SHOWERS MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE
STILL CAN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILING/VIS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
AT KMEI/KHBG 10-14Z. FOLLOWING THIS...ALL SITES WILL RESUME VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISO TO SCT TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
I-55 AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD REDUCE CATEGORIES BRIEFLY.
/28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  71  89  69 /  33  27  45  81
MERIDIAN      90  68  92  72 /  10  21  39  67
VICKSBURG     92  71  89  69 /  46  20  43  83
HATTIESBURG   90  69  90  73 /  30  26  48  52
NATCHEZ       88  73  87  70 /  57  20  48  81
GREENVILLE    92  69  90  71 /  33  23  37  91
GREENWOOD     91  69  91  70 /  20  27  42  91

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

28/EC/









000
FXUS64 KJAN 010948
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
448 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ZONAL TODAY BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LATEST 00Z RAOB SHOWS
DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH 1.37 INCH PW VALUES ON
KJAN...AND JUST UNDER AN INCH ON KLZK. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS JUST TO
OUR SOUTH WITH 1.68 INCH PW VALUES NOTED ON KLIX 00Z SOUNDING AND
1.84 INCHES ON KLCH. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE LOWER
60S/UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS REMAIN ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE MID
TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT SHOULD SHIFT MORE
OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL
MAKE A RETURN BACK TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH...NEAR 1.8
INCHES ALONG I-20 AND EVEN AROUND 1.5-1.6 INCHES IN THE DELTA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING(WITH HIGHS
AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S) WILL COMBINE
WITH THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO CREATE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST.

GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY MOIST
FLOW...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS TO THE EAST...BEING LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WHILE OUR REGION CONTINUES TO MOISTEN
AND WARM AHEAD OF THIS AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 90S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY. WE WILL SEE MORE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN ACTIVITY TOO AS HEATING COMBINES WITH THIS MOIST AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

AS THE FRONT NEARS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DELTA. MODELS SHOW THAT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE INCREASING IN THIS AREA.
30-40KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH ML CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000-1300 J/KG. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED
JUST A LITTLE SINCE LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS AND THIS COULD BE COMING
THROUGH MORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT THAN THE EVENING. EITHER
WAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN
THE HWO AND GRAPHICS. /28/

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN MS
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THE RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE DIMINISHED GIVEN WEAKER FORCING AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WHILE
TEMPERATURES MAY STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL FOR THE ARKLAMISS.

THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CONTINUES TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE IN THE MOST
RECENT GUIDANCE. HIGHS MAY NOT REACH 70 DEG F OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL MS SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES...AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL MS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
THE GUIDANCE SEEMS AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE LOWS...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS/DRY SOILS AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD...THE GUIDANCE SHOULD BE CLOSE. QUICK MODERATION OF THE DRY,
COOL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL THROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING SHOWERS MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE
STILL CAN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILING/VIS RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
AT KMEI/KHBG 10-14Z. FOLLOWING THIS...ALL SITES WILL RESUME VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISO TO SCT TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
I-55 AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD REDUCE CATEGORIES BRIEFLY.
/28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  71  89  69 /  33  27  45  81
MERIDIAN      90  68  92  72 /  10  21  39  67
VICKSBURG     92  71  89  69 /  46  20  43  83
HATTIESBURG   90  69  90  73 /  30  26  48  52
NATCHEZ       88  73  87  70 /  57  20  48  81
GREENVILLE    92  69  90  71 /  33  23  37  91
GREENWOOD     91  69  91  70 /  20  27  42  91

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

28/EC/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 010154 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
854 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
TONIGHT WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA SLOWLY BUILDS EAST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. 00Z SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY WITH
~1.3-1.5 INCHES IN THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE S.
SOME LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE
E/SE BUT NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH COVERAGE OR ANY DENSE FOG TO MENTION IN
THE GRIDS. MADE VERY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO INCREASE LOWS IN THE DELTA
AND HWY 84 CORRIDOR DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS AND LAV GUIDANCE. ADJUSTED
SKY GRIDS TO CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AREAWIDE AT 02Z. MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WL BE PSBL MEI-HBG 10-14Z WEDNESDAY BUT ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDS WL CONT TO PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVNG. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE/UPPER RIDGING PREVAIL. THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LITTLE WILL CHANGE TONIGHT...BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY THAN SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PWATS WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 2.0 INCHES IN
THE SOUTH TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN THE NORTH. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY
IN THE DELTA. THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE 35-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND ML
CAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING IN THE DELTA.
WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING/INSTABILITY/SHEAR BEING IN THE
DELTA WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE AREAS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICASTS.

THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST DELTA DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL EXTEND JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL ATTACH THE
APPLICABLE PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. /15/

LONG TERM...BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO
MOVE IN BRINGING THE FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL TO THE ARKLAMISS THIS
WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS LOOKING STRONGER IN THE MOST
RECENT GUIDANCE AND THIS IS SUPPORTING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD NOT RISE ABOVE THE MID 70S
SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND MANY LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR
SKIES OVERHEAD. THESE READINGS WOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
DAILY CLIMATE NORMALS. SOME MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE THERMAL THROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  91  70  88 /  10  16  21  49
MERIDIAN      60  91  67  89 /  10   5  15  46
VICKSBURG     65  92  70  87 /  11  22  22  44
HATTIESBURG   67  91  71  90 /   8  19  17  57
NATCHEZ       69  89  71  89 /   9  28  26  56
GREENVILLE    65  91  70  89 /   7  11  13  37
GREENWOOD     64  92  70  89 /   7   8  12  43

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/22/15/EC






000
FXUS64 KJAN 010154 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
854 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
TONIGHT WILL BE QUIET AS WEAK UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA SLOWLY BUILDS EAST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION. 00Z SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY WITH
~1.3-1.5 INCHES IN THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE S.
SOME LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE
E/SE BUT NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH COVERAGE OR ANY DENSE FOG TO MENTION IN
THE GRIDS. MADE VERY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO INCREASE LOWS IN THE DELTA
AND HWY 84 CORRIDOR DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS AND LAV GUIDANCE. ADJUSTED
SKY GRIDS TO CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AREAWIDE AT 02Z. MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS WL BE PSBL MEI-HBG 10-14Z WEDNESDAY BUT ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDS WL CONT TO PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVNG. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE/UPPER RIDGING PREVAIL. THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LITTLE WILL CHANGE TONIGHT...BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY THAN SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PWATS WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 2.0 INCHES IN
THE SOUTH TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN THE NORTH. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY
IN THE DELTA. THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE 35-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND ML
CAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING IN THE DELTA.
WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING/INSTABILITY/SHEAR BEING IN THE
DELTA WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE AREAS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICASTS.

THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST DELTA DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL EXTEND JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL ATTACH THE
APPLICABLE PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. /15/

LONG TERM...BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO
MOVE IN BRINGING THE FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL TO THE ARKLAMISS THIS
WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS LOOKING STRONGER IN THE MOST
RECENT GUIDANCE AND THIS IS SUPPORTING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD NOT RISE ABOVE THE MID 70S
SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND MANY LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR
SKIES OVERHEAD. THESE READINGS WOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
DAILY CLIMATE NORMALS. SOME MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE THERMAL THROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  91  70  88 /  10  16  21  49
MERIDIAN      60  91  67  89 /  10   5  15  46
VICKSBURG     65  92  70  87 /  11  22  22  44
HATTIESBURG   67  91  71  90 /   8  19  17  57
NATCHEZ       69  89  71  89 /   9  28  26  56
GREENVILLE    65  91  70  89 /   7  11  13  37
GREENWOOD     64  92  70  89 /   7   8  12  43

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/22/15/EC







000
FXUS64 KJAN 302122 CCA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
404 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE/UPPER RIDGING PREVAIL. THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LITTLE WILL CHANGE TONIGHT...BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY THAN SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PWATS WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 2.0 INCHES IN
THE SOUTH TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN THE NORTH. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY
IN THE DELTA. THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE 35-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND ML
CAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING IN THE DELTA.
WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING/INSTABILITY/SHEAR BEING IN THE
DELTA WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE AREAS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICASTS.

THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST DELTA DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL EXTEND JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL ATTACH THE
APPLICABLE PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. /15/

.LONG TERM...BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO
MOVE IN BRINGING THE FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL TO THE ARKLAMISS THIS
WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS LOOKING STRONGER IN THE MOST
RECENT GUIDANCE AND THIS IS SUPPORTING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD NOT RISE ABOVE THE MID 70S
SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND MANY LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR
SKIES OVERHEAD. THESE READINGS WOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
DAILY CLIMATE NORMALS. SOME MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE THERMAL THROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. AS FAR AS TAF SITES
ARE CONCERN PATCHY FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AT MEI AND HBG BY 10Z
TUESDAY. ALSO SOME STRATUS MAY COME FROM THE EAST AROUND HBG. EXPECT
THE STRATUS AND FOG TO LIFT BY AROUND 14Z. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  91  70  88 /  10  16  21  49
MERIDIAN      60  91  67  89 /  10   5  15  46
VICKSBURG     65  92  70  87 /  11  22  22  44
HATTIESBURG   66  91  71  90 /   8  19  17  57
NATCHEZ       68  89  71  89 /   9  28  26  56
GREENVILLE    64  91  70  89 /   7  11  13  37
GREENWOOD     62  92  70  89 /   7   8  12  43

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

15/EC/17










000
FXUS64 KJAN 302122 CCA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
404 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE/UPPER RIDGING PREVAIL. THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LITTLE WILL CHANGE TONIGHT...BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY THAN SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PWATS WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 2.0 INCHES IN
THE SOUTH TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN THE NORTH. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY
IN THE DELTA. THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE 35-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND ML
CAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING IN THE DELTA.
WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING/INSTABILITY/SHEAR BEING IN THE
DELTA WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE AREAS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICASTS.

THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST DELTA DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL EXTEND JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL ATTACH THE
APPLICABLE PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. /15/

.LONG TERM...BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO
MOVE IN BRINGING THE FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL TO THE ARKLAMISS THIS
WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS LOOKING STRONGER IN THE MOST
RECENT GUIDANCE AND THIS IS SUPPORTING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD NOT RISE ABOVE THE MID 70S
SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND MANY LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR
SKIES OVERHEAD. THESE READINGS WOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
DAILY CLIMATE NORMALS. SOME MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE THERMAL THROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. AS FAR AS TAF SITES
ARE CONCERN PATCHY FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AT MEI AND HBG BY 10Z
TUESDAY. ALSO SOME STRATUS MAY COME FROM THE EAST AROUND HBG. EXPECT
THE STRATUS AND FOG TO LIFT BY AROUND 14Z. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  91  70  88 /  10  16  21  49
MERIDIAN      60  91  67  89 /  10   5  15  46
VICKSBURG     65  92  70  87 /  11  22  22  44
HATTIESBURG   66  91  71  90 /   8  19  17  57
NATCHEZ       68  89  71  89 /   9  28  26  56
GREENVILLE    64  91  70  89 /   7  11  13  37
GREENWOOD     62  92  70  89 /   7   8  12  43

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

15/EC/17









000
FXUS64 KJAN 302033
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
333 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE/UPPER RIDGING PREVAIL. THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LITTLE WILL CHANGE TONIGHT...BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY THAN SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PWATS WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 2.0 INCHES IN
THE SOUTH TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN THE NORTH. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY
IN THE DELTA. THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE 35-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND ML
CAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING IN THE DELTA.
WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING/INSTABILITY/SHEAR BEING IN THE
DELTA WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE AREAS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICASTS.

THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST DELTA DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL EXTEND JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL ATTACH THE
APPLICABLE PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. /15/

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN BRINGING THE FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL TO THE
ARKLAMISS THIS WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS LOOKING
STRONGER IN THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE AND THIS IS SUPPORTING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD NOT RISE ABOVE
THE MID 70S SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND MANY LOCATIONS COULD DIP
INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. THESE READINGS WOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
DAILY CLIMATE NORMALS. SOME MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE THERMAL THROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. AS FAR AS TAF SITES ARE
CONCERN PATCHY FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AT MEI AND HBG BY 10Z TUESDAY.
ALSO SOME STRATUS MAY COME FROM THE EAST AROUND HBG. EXPECT THE
STRATUS AND FOG TO LIFT BY AROUND 14Z./17/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  66  91  70 /   1  10  16  21
MERIDIAN      89  60  91  67 /   1  10   5  15
VICKSBURG     90  65  92  70 /   2  11  22  22
HATTIESBURG   89  66  91  71 /   6   8  19  17
NATCHEZ       89  68  89  71 /  15   9  28  26
GREENVILLE    89  64  91  70 /   1   7  11  13
GREENWOOD     89  62  92  70 /   1   7   8  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

15/







000
FXUS64 KJAN 302033
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
333 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE/UPPER RIDGING PREVAIL. THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LITTLE WILL CHANGE TONIGHT...BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY THAN SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PWATS WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 2.0 INCHES IN
THE SOUTH TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN THE NORTH. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY
IN THE DELTA. THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE 35-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND ML
CAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING IN THE DELTA.
WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING/INSTABILITY/SHEAR BEING IN THE
DELTA WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THESE AREAS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICASTS.

THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST DELTA DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL EXTEND JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL ATTACH THE
APPLICABLE PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. /15/

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN BRINGING THE FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL TO THE
ARKLAMISS THIS WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS LOOKING
STRONGER IN THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE AND THIS IS SUPPORTING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD NOT RISE ABOVE
THE MID 70S SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND MANY LOCATIONS COULD DIP
INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD. THESE READINGS WOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
DAILY CLIMATE NORMALS. SOME MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE THERMAL THROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. AS FAR AS TAF SITES ARE
CONCERN PATCHY FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AT MEI AND HBG BY 10Z TUESDAY.
ALSO SOME STRATUS MAY COME FROM THE EAST AROUND HBG. EXPECT THE
STRATUS AND FOG TO LIFT BY AROUND 14Z./17/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  66  91  70 /   1  10  16  21
MERIDIAN      89  60  91  67 /   1  10   5  15
VICKSBURG     90  65  92  70 /   2  11  22  22
HATTIESBURG   89  66  91  71 /   6   8  19  17
NATCHEZ       89  68  89  71 /  15   9  28  26
GREENVILLE    89  64  91  70 /   1   7  11  13
GREENWOOD     89  62  92  70 /   1   7   8  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

15/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 301512
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1007 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS
THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MOST OF THE
AREA IS CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRATUS IN THE EAST...BUT
EXPECT THE STRATUS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...BUT
HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVER THESE AREAS WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6-1.7 INCHES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER THAN THAT THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME./15/

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR IS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
PER 00Z KJAN SOUNDING WITH A PW VALUE OF 1.56 INCHES. EVEN DRIER AIR
IS LOCATED FURTHER NORTH WITH 0.94 INCH PW VALUE ON KLZK 00Z
SOUNDING. THE MOISTURE STILL REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS OVER 2
INCHES IS STILL OBSERVED ON KLIX SOUNDING. OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING
SHOW LOWER 60S AND UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE THIS
DRIER AIR IS SITUATED AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LITTLE CONVECTION.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S ONCE
AGAIN. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE MAY RESIDE.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SHOWN VERY WELL ON HI-RES MODELS. IN
ADDITION...MODELS THIS MORNING SHOW THE DRIER AIR PUSHING FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS...ALONG WITH NO DISCERNIBLE
FORCING OTHER THAN HEATING...WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THAT ALL BEING SAID...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY POPS FOR TODAY
IN THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE
MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER IN THE WEST AND STILL A LITTLE COOLER IN THE EAST WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL KEEP SOME HOLD. FOR WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE 90S ONCE AGAIN.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AS THE BETTER MOISTURE COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OUTSIDE OF
CHANCES FOR RAIN...CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM. /28/

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE IS INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING A POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
REGION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ON SHORE IN THE PAC NW AND THE ECMWF HAS COME INTO
BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WE EXPECT FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR (0-1KM SRH 150-200
M2/S2 AND 0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KTS) COMBINED WITH ML CAPE >
1000 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE DELTA. GIVEN FAIRLY
STRONG FORCING AND THE SHEAR...EXPECT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP WITH A MIXTURE OF STORM MODES GIVEN THE WESTERLY SHEAR
VECTORS ALOFT. THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE A FEW SEVERE STORMS IF THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS CLOSE AND EXPECT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OVER THE
DELTA REGION WHERE TIMING/INSTABILITY AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE
BEST...AND LATEST CIPS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING. THIS COULD
INCLUDE A POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES DURING THE EVENING IF
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STAYS BACKED LONGER. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF
THIS POTENTIAL EVENT IN THE HAZARD PRODUCTS...KEEPING IT FOCUSED
OVER NORTHWESTERN AREAS AT THIS POINT WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN
BRINGING THE FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL TO THE ARKLAMISS THIS WEEKEND.
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS LOOKING STRONGER IN THE MOST RECENT
GUIDANCE AND THIS IS SUPPORTING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD NOT RISE ABOVE THE MID 70S SATURDAY UNDER
SUNNY SKIES AND MANY LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD.
THESE READINGS WOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW DAILY CLIMATE
NORMALS. SOME MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS THE THERMAL THROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.  /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AT
MEI AND HBG AS A STUBBORN DECK OF STRATUS SPREADS IN FROM THE EAST.
THOSE CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE TO VFR LEVELS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  67  91  70 /   1  10  10  20
MERIDIAN      89  62  90  67 /   1  10   5  17
VICKSBURG     90  66  91  70 /   2  11  14  17
HATTIESBURG   89  67  92  71 /   6   8  15  17
NATCHEZ       89  68  90  72 /   6   9  30  20
GREENVILLE    89  66  91  70 /   1   7   7  14
GREENWOOD     89  64  91  70 /   1   7   6  15

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

/28/EC/









000
FXUS64 KJAN 301512
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1007 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS
THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. MOST OF THE
AREA IS CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRATUS IN THE EAST...BUT
EXPECT THE STRATUS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...BUT
HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVER THESE AREAS WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6-1.7 INCHES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER THAN THAT THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME./15/

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR IS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
PER 00Z KJAN SOUNDING WITH A PW VALUE OF 1.56 INCHES. EVEN DRIER AIR
IS LOCATED FURTHER NORTH WITH 0.94 INCH PW VALUE ON KLZK 00Z
SOUNDING. THE MOISTURE STILL REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS OVER 2
INCHES IS STILL OBSERVED ON KLIX SOUNDING. OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING
SHOW LOWER 60S AND UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE THIS
DRIER AIR IS SITUATED AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LITTLE CONVECTION.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S ONCE
AGAIN. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE MAY RESIDE.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SHOWN VERY WELL ON HI-RES MODELS. IN
ADDITION...MODELS THIS MORNING SHOW THE DRIER AIR PUSHING FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS...ALONG WITH NO DISCERNIBLE
FORCING OTHER THAN HEATING...WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THAT ALL BEING SAID...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY POPS FOR TODAY
IN THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE
MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER IN THE WEST AND STILL A LITTLE COOLER IN THE EAST WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL KEEP SOME HOLD. FOR WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE 90S ONCE AGAIN.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AS THE BETTER MOISTURE COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OUTSIDE OF
CHANCES FOR RAIN...CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM. /28/

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE IS INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING A POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
REGION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ON SHORE IN THE PAC NW AND THE ECMWF HAS COME INTO
BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WE EXPECT FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR (0-1KM SRH 150-200
M2/S2 AND 0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KTS) COMBINED WITH ML CAPE >
1000 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE DELTA. GIVEN FAIRLY
STRONG FORCING AND THE SHEAR...EXPECT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP WITH A MIXTURE OF STORM MODES GIVEN THE WESTERLY SHEAR
VECTORS ALOFT. THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE A FEW SEVERE STORMS IF THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS CLOSE AND EXPECT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OVER THE
DELTA REGION WHERE TIMING/INSTABILITY AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE
BEST...AND LATEST CIPS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING. THIS COULD
INCLUDE A POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES DURING THE EVENING IF
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STAYS BACKED LONGER. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF
THIS POTENTIAL EVENT IN THE HAZARD PRODUCTS...KEEPING IT FOCUSED
OVER NORTHWESTERN AREAS AT THIS POINT WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN
BRINGING THE FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL TO THE ARKLAMISS THIS WEEKEND.
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS LOOKING STRONGER IN THE MOST RECENT
GUIDANCE AND THIS IS SUPPORTING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD NOT RISE ABOVE THE MID 70S SATURDAY UNDER
SUNNY SKIES AND MANY LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD.
THESE READINGS WOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW DAILY CLIMATE
NORMALS. SOME MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS THE THERMAL THROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.  /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AT
MEI AND HBG AS A STUBBORN DECK OF STRATUS SPREADS IN FROM THE EAST.
THOSE CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE TO VFR LEVELS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  67  91  70 /   1  10  10  20
MERIDIAN      89  62  90  67 /   1  10   5  17
VICKSBURG     90  66  91  70 /   2  11  14  17
HATTIESBURG   89  67  92  71 /   6   8  15  17
NATCHEZ       89  68  90  72 /   6   9  30  20
GREENVILLE    89  66  91  70 /   1   7   7  14
GREENWOOD     89  64  91  70 /   1   7   6  15

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

/28/EC/










000
FXUS64 KJAN 300959
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
459 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR IS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING PER
00Z KJAN SOUNDING WITH A PW VALUE OF 1.56 INCHES. EVEN DRIER AIR IS
LOCATED FURTHER NORTH WITH 0.94 INCH PW VALUE ON KLZK 00Z SOUNDING.
THE MOISTURE STILL REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS OVER 2 INCHES IS
STILL OBSERVED ON KLIX SOUNDING. OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW
LOWER 60S AND UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE THIS
DRIER AIR IS SITUATED AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LITTLE CONVECTION.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S ONCE
AGAIN. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE MAY RESIDE.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SHOWN VERY WELL ON HI-RES MODELS. IN
ADDITION...MODELS THIS MORNING SHOW THE DRIER AIR PUSHING FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS...ALONG WITH NO DISCERNIBLE
FORCING OTHER THAN HEATING...WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THAT ALL BEING SAID...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY POPS FOR TODAY
IN THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE
MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER IN THE WEST AND STILL A LITTLE COOLER IN THE EAST WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL KEEP SOME HOLD. FOR WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE 90S ONCE AGAIN.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AS THE BETTER MOISTURE COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OUTSIDE OF
CHANCES FOR RAIN...CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM. /28/

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE IS INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING A POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ON SHORE IN THE PAC NW AND THE ECMWF HAS COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WE EXPECT FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR (0-1KM SRH 150-200
M2/S2 AND 0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KTS) COMBINED WITH ML CAPE >
1000 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE DELTA. GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG
FORCING AND THE SHEAR...EXPECT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH A
MIXTURE OF STORM MODES GIVEN THE WESTERLY SHEAR VECTORS ALOFT. THERE
SHOULD AT LEAST BE A FEW SEVERE STORMS IF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE IS
CLOSE AND EXPECT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OVER THE DELTA REGION WHERE
TIMING/INSTABILITY AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE BEST...AND LATEST CIPS
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING. THIS COULD INCLUDE A POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES DURING THE EVENING IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STAYS
BACKED LONGER. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL EVENT IN THE
HAZARD PRODUCTS...KEEPING IT FOCUSED OVER NORTHWESTERN AREAS AT THIS
POINT WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN
BRINGING THE FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL TO THE ARKLAMISS THIS WEEKEND.
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS LOOKING STRONGER IN THE MOST RECENT
GUIDANCE AND THIS IS SUPPORTING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD NOT RISE ABOVE THE MID 70S SATURDAY UNDER
SUNNY SKIES AND MANY LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD.
THESE READINGS WOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW DAILY CLIMATE
NORMALS. SOME MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS THE THERMAL THROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.  /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KMEI AND KHBG BUT THESE SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY ALONG WITH EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
LATE THIS EVENING. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  67  91  70 /   1  10  10  20
MERIDIAN      89  62  90  67 /   1  10   5  17
VICKSBURG     90  66  91  70 /   2  11  14  17
HATTIESBURG   89  67  92  71 /   6   8  15  17
NATCHEZ       89  68  90  72 /   6   9  30  20
GREENVILLE    89  66  91  70 /   1   7   7  14
GREENWOOD     89  64  91  70 /   1   7   6  15

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

/28/EC/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 300959
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
459 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR IS IN
PLACE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING PER
00Z KJAN SOUNDING WITH A PW VALUE OF 1.56 INCHES. EVEN DRIER AIR IS
LOCATED FURTHER NORTH WITH 0.94 INCH PW VALUE ON KLZK 00Z SOUNDING.
THE MOISTURE STILL REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS OVER 2 INCHES IS
STILL OBSERVED ON KLIX SOUNDING. OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW
LOWER 60S AND UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE THIS
DRIER AIR IS SITUATED AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LITTLE CONVECTION.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S ONCE
AGAIN. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE MAY RESIDE.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SHOWN VERY WELL ON HI-RES MODELS. IN
ADDITION...MODELS THIS MORNING SHOW THE DRIER AIR PUSHING FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS...ALONG WITH NO DISCERNIBLE
FORCING OTHER THAN HEATING...WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THAT ALL BEING SAID...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY POPS FOR TODAY
IN THE SOUTH.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE
MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER IN THE WEST AND STILL A LITTLE COOLER IN THE EAST WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL KEEP SOME HOLD. FOR WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE THE 90S ONCE AGAIN.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AS THE BETTER MOISTURE COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. OUTSIDE OF
CHANCES FOR RAIN...CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM. /28/

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE IS INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING A POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ON SHORE IN THE PAC NW AND THE ECMWF HAS COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WE EXPECT FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR (0-1KM SRH 150-200
M2/S2 AND 0-6KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KTS) COMBINED WITH ML CAPE >
1000 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE DELTA. GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG
FORCING AND THE SHEAR...EXPECT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH A
MIXTURE OF STORM MODES GIVEN THE WESTERLY SHEAR VECTORS ALOFT. THERE
SHOULD AT LEAST BE A FEW SEVERE STORMS IF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE IS
CLOSE AND EXPECT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OVER THE DELTA REGION WHERE
TIMING/INSTABILITY AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE BEST...AND LATEST CIPS
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING. THIS COULD INCLUDE A POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES DURING THE EVENING IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STAYS
BACKED LONGER. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL EVENT IN THE
HAZARD PRODUCTS...KEEPING IT FOCUSED OVER NORTHWESTERN AREAS AT THIS
POINT WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO MOVE IN
BRINGING THE FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL TO THE ARKLAMISS THIS WEEKEND.
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS LOOKING STRONGER IN THE MOST RECENT
GUIDANCE AND THIS IS SUPPORTING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD NOT RISE ABOVE THE MID 70S SATURDAY UNDER
SUNNY SKIES AND MANY LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD.
THESE READINGS WOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW DAILY CLIMATE
NORMALS. SOME MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS THE THERMAL THROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.  /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KMEI AND KHBG BUT THESE SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY ALONG WITH EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
LATE THIS EVENING. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  67  91  70 /   1  10  10  20
MERIDIAN      89  62  90  67 /   1  10   5  17
VICKSBURG     90  66  91  70 /   2  11  14  17
HATTIESBURG   89  67  92  71 /   6   8  15  17
NATCHEZ       89  68  90  72 /   6   9  30  20
GREENVILLE    89  66  91  70 /   1   7   7  14
GREENWOOD     89  64  91  70 /   1   7   6  15

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

/28/EC/







000
FXUS64 KJAN 300136 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
836 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR HAS
BEGUN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WEAK
GULF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES IN 00Z KJAN
SOUNDING AND NEAR 1 INCH AT 00Z KLZK SOUNDING. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR
OUT FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT BUT LAV INDICATES SOME LOW
STRATUS/PATCHY FOG COULD MOVE BACK INTO THE S/SE TONIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED LOWS UP TOWARDS EUROMOS DUE TO DEWPOINT TRENDS.
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...THE ISOLD SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTN OVER THE
SOUTH HAVE DISSIPATED AND VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT 01Z.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WL BE PSBL 10-13Z TUE AT MEI AND HBG...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL ARAEWIDE THROUGH TUESDAY. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
HAVE INDEED DEVELOPED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS AFTERNOON.  MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING AS SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH.  FOR
TONIGHT...LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 60S.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EAST THROUGH AND
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS...HIGHS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT AROUND 90.  THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE 60S.

THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. /19/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN FLUX
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST
BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO BE REPLACED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH. IN THE PROCESS
OF THIS TRANSITION...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS REGION DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND
MUGGY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED WITH HEIGHT FALLS
AND FRONTAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT
THE BULK OF GUIDANCE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND SUGGEST THAT ANY STRONG/SVR STORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AT WORST. FOR NOW WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
GUIDANCE TRENDS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AND LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION IN
THE HAZARD PRODUCTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO USHER IN MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE
70S SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD DIP
INTO THE UPPER 40S AT A FEW LOCATIONS. THOSE READINGS WOULD BE SOME 5
TO 10 DEG F BELOW DAILY CLIMATE NORMALS. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  88  66  90 /   8   3   5  12
MERIDIAN      63  87  63  90 /  11   2   5   9
VICKSBURG     64  90  65  90 /   6   3   5  13
HATTIESBURG   68  89  69  91 /  14   8   5  23
NATCHEZ       67  88  68  90 /  10  10   5  28
GREENVILLE    62  88  65  91 /   4   2   5  11
GREENWOOD     62  89  65  91 /   5   2   5  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/22/19/EC






000
FXUS64 KJAN 300136 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
836 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR HAS
BEGUN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WEAK
GULF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES IN 00Z KJAN
SOUNDING AND NEAR 1 INCH AT 00Z KLZK SOUNDING. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR
OUT FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT BUT LAV INDICATES SOME LOW
STRATUS/PATCHY FOG COULD MOVE BACK INTO THE S/SE TONIGHT. NOT
EXPECTING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED LOWS UP TOWARDS EUROMOS DUE TO DEWPOINT TRENDS.
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...THE ISOLD SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTN OVER THE
SOUTH HAVE DISSIPATED AND VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT 01Z.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WL BE PSBL 10-13Z TUE AT MEI AND HBG...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL ARAEWIDE THROUGH TUESDAY. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
HAVE INDEED DEVELOPED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS AFTERNOON.  MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING AS SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH.  FOR
TONIGHT...LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 60S.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EAST THROUGH AND
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS...HIGHS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT AROUND 90.  THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE 60S.

THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. /19/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN FLUX
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST
BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO BE REPLACED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH. IN THE PROCESS
OF THIS TRANSITION...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS REGION DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND
MUGGY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED WITH HEIGHT FALLS
AND FRONTAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT
THE BULK OF GUIDANCE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND SUGGEST THAT ANY STRONG/SVR STORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AT WORST. FOR NOW WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
GUIDANCE TRENDS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AND LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION IN
THE HAZARD PRODUCTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO USHER IN MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE
70S SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD DIP
INTO THE UPPER 40S AT A FEW LOCATIONS. THOSE READINGS WOULD BE SOME 5
TO 10 DEG F BELOW DAILY CLIMATE NORMALS. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  88  66  90 /   8   3   5  12
MERIDIAN      63  87  63  90 /  11   2   5   9
VICKSBURG     64  90  65  90 /   6   3   5  13
HATTIESBURG   68  89  69  91 /  14   8   5  23
NATCHEZ       67  88  68  90 /  10  10   5  28
GREENVILLE    62  88  65  91 /   4   2   5  11
GREENWOOD     62  89  65  91 /   5   2   5  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/22/19/EC







000
FXUS64 KJAN 291954
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
254 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
HAVE INDEED DEVELOPED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS AFTERNOON.  MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING AS SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH.  FOR
TONIGHT...LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 60S.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EAST THROUGH AND
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS...HIGHS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT AROUND 90.  THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE 60S.

THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. /19/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN FLUX
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST
BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO BE REPLACED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH. IN THE PROCESS
OF THIS TRANSITION...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS REGION DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND
MUGGY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED WITH HEIGHT FALLS
AND FRONTAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT
THE BULK OF GUIDANCE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND SUGGEST THAT ANY STRONG/SVR STORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AT WORST. FOR NOW WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
GUIDANCE TRENDS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AND LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION IN
THE HAZARD PRODUCTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO USHER IN MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE
70S SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD DIP
INTO THE UPPER 40S AT A FEW LOCATIONS. THOSE READINGS WOULD BE SOME 5
TO 10 DEG F BELOW DAILY CLIMATE NORMALS. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITE TONIGHT...
HOWEVER MEI/HBG LOOK TO DEVELOP FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES UNTIL AROUND 30/14Z./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  88  66  90 /   8   3   5  12
MERIDIAN      63  87  63  90 /  11   2   5   9
VICKSBURG     62  90  65  90 /   6   3   5  13
HATTIESBURG   68  89  69  91 /  14   8   5  23
NATCHEZ       66  88  68  90 /  10  10   5  28
GREENVILLE    61  88  65  91 /   4   2   5  11
GREENWOOD     61  89  65  91 /   5   2   5  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/26







000
FXUS64 KJAN 291954
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
254 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
HAVE INDEED DEVELOPED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS AFTERNOON.  MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING AS SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SLIPS IN FROM THE NORTH.  FOR
TONIGHT...LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 60S.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EAST THROUGH AND
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS...HIGHS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT AROUND 90.  THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE 60S.

THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. /19/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN FLUX
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST
BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO BE REPLACED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH. IN THE PROCESS
OF THIS TRANSITION...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS REGION DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND
MUGGY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED WITH HEIGHT FALLS
AND FRONTAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT
THE BULK OF GUIDANCE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND SUGGEST THAT ANY STRONG/SVR STORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AT WORST. FOR NOW WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
GUIDANCE TRENDS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AND LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION IN
THE HAZARD PRODUCTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO USHER IN MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE
70S SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD DIP
INTO THE UPPER 40S AT A FEW LOCATIONS. THOSE READINGS WOULD BE SOME 5
TO 10 DEG F BELOW DAILY CLIMATE NORMALS. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITE TONIGHT...
HOWEVER MEI/HBG LOOK TO DEVELOP FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES UNTIL AROUND 30/14Z./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  88  66  90 /   8   3   5  12
MERIDIAN      63  87  63  90 /  11   2   5   9
VICKSBURG     62  90  65  90 /   6   3   5  13
HATTIESBURG   68  89  69  91 /  14   8   5  23
NATCHEZ       66  88  68  90 /  10  10   5  28
GREENVILLE    61  88  65  91 /   4   2   5  11
GREENWOOD     61  89  65  91 /   5   2   5  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/26






000
FXUS64 KJAN 291549 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1049 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ARKLAMISS...WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT SPILLING INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...SHOWERS OVER MY FAR SOUTHWEST
ZONES CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST OUT OF THE CWA WHILE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING.

WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...AND THE
LACK OF A GOOD LOW LEVEL/SURFACE FORCING MECHANISM THERE...I CUT
POPS IN LOCALES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.  HOWEVER ACROSS MY
SOUTH...THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST
AIRMASS...AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT.  THUS...I`LL
MAINTAIN SMALL RAIN CHANCES THERE THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-RES MODELS
SUPPORT THIS.

OTHER THAN THE ABOVE MENTIONED CHANGE...ALONG WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY COVER AND A COUPLE HOURLY GRID ELEMENTS TO BETTER FIT CURRENT
TRENDS...NO FURTHER CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST ON THIS
UPDATE. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND DIMINISH FROM THE
NORTH AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY IN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT MOST SITE TONIGHT...HOWEVER MEI/HBG LOOK TO DEVELOP FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNTIL AROUND
30/14Z. /26/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS
OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION THIS MORNING AS THE 00Z KJAN SOUNDING
DEPICTED 1.8 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER PRESENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
THE ARKLAMISS REGION CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SFC
HIGH SPRAWLED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. TO THE WEST...HIGHER HEIGHTS ARE
SNEAKING INTO THE REGION. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 595DM UPPER
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS WEST TEXAS/OLD MEXICO. IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND DICTATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL MOVE INTO THE
DELTA REGION TODAY...LIMITING CONVECTION IN THAT AREA. AFTERNOON
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST AND EAST PARTICULARLY TODAY AS THIS REGION WILL BE LESS
INFLUENCED BY THE INCOMING RIDGE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH BACK INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S EVERYWHERE...WITH 90S RETURNING TO THE DELTA.

THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT A LITTLE MORE INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS...THUS HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE ARKLAMISS
WEDNESDAY. DRY...BUT WARMER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS A
RESULT. HIGHS WILL REACH 90 ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S IN THE DELTA. DESPITE PW VALUES DECREASING WEDNESDAY FROM
1.8-1.9 INCHES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES DUE TO THE INCOMING RIDGE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO BE IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. THESE DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL SOIL
MOISTURE AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE HEAT INDICES
INTO THE 90S AREAWIDE. THE WORST OF THE HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL BE
IN THE DELTA...WHICH SHOULD SEE MID 90S AND HIGHER(EVEN CLOSE TO 100
DEGREES) DURING THE PEAK OF THE AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL
KEEP WITH THE LIMITED RISK OF HEAT INDICES ON WEDNESDAY IN THIS
AREA. RESIDENTS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN BEING OUTSIDE DURING THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WONT PROVIDE
MUCH RELIEF AS READINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
SUMMER SEEMS TO BE SETTLING IN. /28/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN FLUX
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST
BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO BE REPLACED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH. IN THE PROCESS
OF THIS TRANSITION...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS REGION DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND
MUGGY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED WITH HEIGHT FALLS
AND FRONTAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT
THE BULK OF GUIDANCE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND SUGGEST THAT ANY STRONG/SVR STORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AT WORST. FOR NOW WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
GUIDANCE TRENDS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AND LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION IN
THE HAZARD PRODUCTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO USHER IN MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE
70S SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD DIP
INTO THE UPPER 40S AT A FEW LOCATIONS. THOSE READINGS WOULD BE SOME 5
TO 10 DEG F BELOW DAILY CLIMATE NORMALS. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       87  65  89  67 /  13   8  11   9
MERIDIAN      85  64  88  65 /  13  10   5   8
VICKSBURG     88  63  89  67 /  12   7  12  10
HATTIESBURG   88  68  91  68 /  24  13  14  11
NATCHEZ       86  66  89  69 /  16   8  15  12
GREENVILLE    87  62  89  66 /   9   4   4   8
GREENWOOD     86  61  90  65 /  10   4   4   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/26






000
FXUS64 KJAN 291549 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1049 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ARKLAMISS...WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT SPILLING INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...SHOWERS OVER MY FAR SOUTHWEST
ZONES CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST OUT OF THE CWA WHILE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING.

WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...AND THE
LACK OF A GOOD LOW LEVEL/SURFACE FORCING MECHANISM THERE...I CUT
POPS IN LOCALES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.  HOWEVER ACROSS MY
SOUTH...THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST
AIRMASS...AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT.  THUS...I`LL
MAINTAIN SMALL RAIN CHANCES THERE THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH-RES MODELS
SUPPORT THIS.

OTHER THAN THE ABOVE MENTIONED CHANGE...ALONG WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY COVER AND A COUPLE HOURLY GRID ELEMENTS TO BETTER FIT CURRENT
TRENDS...NO FURTHER CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST ON THIS
UPDATE. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND DIMINISH FROM THE
NORTH AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY IN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT MOST SITE TONIGHT...HOWEVER MEI/HBG LOOK TO DEVELOP FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNTIL AROUND
30/14Z. /26/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS
OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION THIS MORNING AS THE 00Z KJAN SOUNDING
DEPICTED 1.8 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER PRESENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
THE ARKLAMISS REGION CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SFC
HIGH SPRAWLED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. TO THE WEST...HIGHER HEIGHTS ARE
SNEAKING INTO THE REGION. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 595DM UPPER
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS WEST TEXAS/OLD MEXICO. IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AND DICTATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL MOVE INTO THE
DELTA REGION TODAY...LIMITING CONVECTION IN THAT AREA. AFTERNOON
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST AND EAST PARTICULARLY TODAY AS THIS REGION WILL BE LESS
INFLUENCED BY THE INCOMING RIDGE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH BACK INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S EVERYWHERE...WITH 90S RETURNING TO THE DELTA.

THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT A LITTLE MORE INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS...THUS HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE ARKLAMISS
WEDNESDAY. DRY...BUT WARMER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS A
RESULT. HIGHS WILL REACH 90 ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S IN THE DELTA. DESPITE PW VALUES DECREASING WEDNESDAY FROM
1.8-1.9 INCHES TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES DUE TO THE INCOMING RIDGE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO BE IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. THESE DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL SOIL
MOISTURE AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE HEAT INDICES
INTO THE 90S AREAWIDE. THE WORST OF THE HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL BE
IN THE DELTA...WHICH SHOULD SEE MID 90S AND HIGHER(EVEN CLOSE TO 100
DEGREES) DURING THE PEAK OF THE AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL
KEEP WITH THE LIMITED RISK OF HEAT INDICES ON WEDNESDAY IN THIS
AREA. RESIDENTS SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN BEING OUTSIDE DURING THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WONT PROVIDE
MUCH RELIEF AS READINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
SUMMER SEEMS TO BE SETTLING IN. /28/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN FLUX
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST
BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO BE REPLACED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH. IN THE PROCESS
OF THIS TRANSITION...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS REGION DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM AND
MUGGY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED WITH HEIGHT FALLS
AND FRONTAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT
THE BULK OF GUIDANCE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES AND SUGGEST THAT ANY STRONG/SVR STORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AT WORST. FOR NOW WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
GUIDANCE TRENDS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AND LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION IN
THE HAZARD PRODUCTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO USHER IN MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE
70S SATURDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD DIP
INTO THE UPPER 40S AT A FEW LOCATIONS. THOSE READINGS WOULD BE SOME 5
TO 10 DEG F BELOW DAILY CLIMATE NORMALS. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       87  65  89  67 /  13   8  11   9
MERIDIAN      85  64  88  65 /  13  10   5   8
VICKSBURG     88  63  89  67 /  12   7  12  10
HATTIESBURG   88  68  91  68 /  24  13  14  11
NATCHEZ       86  66  89  69 /  16   8  15  12
GREENVILLE    87  62  89  66 /   9   4   4   8
GREENWOOD     86  61  90  65 /  10   4   4   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/26







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