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000
FXUS64 KJAN 220752
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
252 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE REINFORCING FRONT. DUE TO THIS THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST WILL BE PRIMARILY A TEMP TYPE FORECAST. OVERALL...GUIDANCE
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS AND VALUES WILL BE FOLLOWED. THE
EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE WITH TODAY WHERE A COMBINATION OF THE NAM
OR RAW GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FIT THE SITUATION BETTER. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE SOME 3-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A RANGE ACROSS THE
CWA OF 70-77 DEGREES. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
INTO FRI MORNING WITH LOWS THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS MAINLY IN THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS THU WILL REFLECT THE SAME TREND AND RANGE FROM
70-75. /CME/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY... THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS A FIRM GRIP OVER THE
REGION.  WHILE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...SOME DISCREPANCIES DO CREEP INTO THE MODELS COME NEXT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN REGARDS TO WHETHER A WEAK FRONT WILL
OR WILL NOT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING OUR
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN...ALBEIT A SMALL CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM THE MID 70S TO START THE PERIOD FRIDAY...TO AROUND 80
TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL ALSO FOLLOW
SUIT AS THEY BEGIN THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
TO AROUND 50...AND END THE PERIOD NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE
50S. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF INSTANCE OF MVFR VIS CONDITIONS
AT A SITE OR TWO UNTIL 13Z...BUT THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR TODAY/TONIGHT. LOOK FOR STEADY NNE WINDS TODAY WITH A DECREASE
IN WINDS FOR TONIGHT. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       75  43  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      74  39  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     76  42  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   78  45  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       76  46  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    73  44  70  43 /   0   0   4   0
GREENWOOD     72  41  71  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/19/







000
FXUS64 KJAN 220151 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
851 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
TONIGHT IS A LOT LIKE LAST NIGHT. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND
WHERE THEY WERE THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE. HAD TO INCREASE
THE DEWPOINTS AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS JUST A BIT FOR THIS
UPDATE. PATCHY FOG AROUND LOW-LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN THE HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED AREAS OF GROUND FOG WILL BE LESS LIKELY AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK FRONT.
/DL/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

EVIDENCE OF THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS SEEN IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS WITH STRATOCUMULUS DECK ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
LOWER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS MIXING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH MS.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHTS AND MILD
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS WE GO THROUGH MID WEEK. GIVEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE ARKLAMISS AND CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT
WINDS ALONG WITH DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET DOWN TO NEAR 37F OVER EASTERN MS...BUT
PROBABLY NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT FROST. /EC/

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST IS SET TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S TO START THE PERIOD THURSDAY...TO AROUND 80
TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT TUESDAY. THE SAME GOES FOR
LOWS...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. A BOUNDARY
SWINGING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY COULD BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
REGION. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       48  75  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      45  75  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     48  77  41  74 /   0   0   0   1
HATTIESBURG   50  78  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       51  75  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    50  73  43  70 /   0   0   0   7
GREENWOOD     46  72  41  72 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 212047
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
347 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

EVIDENCE OF THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS SEEN IN VISIBIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS WITH STRATOCUMULUS DECK ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
LOWER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS MIXING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH MS.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHTS AND MILD
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS WE GO THROUGH MID WEEK. GIVEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE ARKLAMISS AND CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT
WINDS ALONG WITH DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET DOWN TO NEAR 37F OVER EASTERN MS...BUT
PROBABLY NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT FROST. /EC/

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST IS SET TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S TO START THE PERIOD THURSDAY...TO AROUND 80
TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT TUESDAY. THE SAME GOES FOR
LOWS...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. A BOUNDARY
SWINGING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY COULD BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
REGION. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED AREAS OF GROUND FOG WILL BE LESS LIKELY AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK FRONT.
/DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       48  75  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      45  75  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     48  77  41  74 /   0   0   0   1
HATTIESBURG   50  78  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       51  75  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    50  73  43  70 /   0   0   0   7
GREENWOOD     46  72  41  72 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

EC/19/DL/








000
FXUS64 KJAN 211541
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1041 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUD COVER OVER NE LA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR ON THE WAY FOR
TONIGHT. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN AND EVOLUTION OF IMPORTANT FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LINGERING...THIS CONTINUES TO
BE A TEMP TYPE FORECAST. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LOOK FOR LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND A TUE THAT WILL BE OVERALL WARMER THAN THE PREV
SEVERAL. EFFICIENT WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE TRUE ARRIVAL SOME SOME
COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY TO PEAK FROM THE UPPER
70S N TO LOWER 80S S. AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SFC WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP READINGS FROM
FALLING OFF TO MAXIMUM POTENTIAL AND LOOK FOR LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH CAA ONGOING WED...HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
THAN TODAY AND LOOK FOR A RANGE OF 70-77 FOR N/NE TO S. THE GFS MOS
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND MORE OF A NAM/RAW OUTPUT WAS USED. MUCH
BETTER RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WED NGT AND LOWS
BETWEEN 40-45 ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW SELECT COOL SPOTS TOUCHING THE
UPPER 30S BRIEFLY. /CME/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET
FORECAST IS SET TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S TO START THE
PERIOD THURSDAY...TO AROUND 80 TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT
TUESDAY.  THE SAME GOES FOR LOWS...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY
NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.  A BOUNDARY SWINGING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY COULD
BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BRIEF VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT WED MORNING AT MEI AND HBG...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM. /DL/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 211541
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1041 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUD COVER OVER NE LA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR ON THE WAY FOR
TONIGHT. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN AND EVOLUTION OF IMPORTANT FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LINGERING...THIS CONTINUES TO
BE A TEMP TYPE FORECAST. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LOOK FOR LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND A TUE THAT WILL BE OVERALL WARMER THAN THE PREV
SEVERAL. EFFICIENT WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE TRUE ARRIVAL SOME SOME
COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY TO PEAK FROM THE UPPER
70S N TO LOWER 80S S. AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SFC WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP READINGS FROM
FALLING OFF TO MAXIMUM POTENTIAL AND LOOK FOR LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH CAA ONGOING WED...HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
THAN TODAY AND LOOK FOR A RANGE OF 70-77 FOR N/NE TO S. THE GFS MOS
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND MORE OF A NAM/RAW OUTPUT WAS USED. MUCH
BETTER RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WED NGT AND LOWS
BETWEEN 40-45 ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW SELECT COOL SPOTS TOUCHING THE
UPPER 30S BRIEFLY. /CME/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET
FORECAST IS SET TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S TO START THE
PERIOD THURSDAY...TO AROUND 80 TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT
TUESDAY.  THE SAME GOES FOR LOWS...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY
NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.  A BOUNDARY SWINGING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY COULD
BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BRIEF VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT WED MORNING AT MEI AND HBG...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM. /DL/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 211541
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1041 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUD COVER OVER NE LA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR ON THE WAY FOR
TONIGHT. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN AND EVOLUTION OF IMPORTANT FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LINGERING...THIS CONTINUES TO
BE A TEMP TYPE FORECAST. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LOOK FOR LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND A TUE THAT WILL BE OVERALL WARMER THAN THE PREV
SEVERAL. EFFICIENT WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE TRUE ARRIVAL SOME SOME
COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY TO PEAK FROM THE UPPER
70S N TO LOWER 80S S. AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SFC WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP READINGS FROM
FALLING OFF TO MAXIMUM POTENTIAL AND LOOK FOR LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH CAA ONGOING WED...HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
THAN TODAY AND LOOK FOR A RANGE OF 70-77 FOR N/NE TO S. THE GFS MOS
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND MORE OF A NAM/RAW OUTPUT WAS USED. MUCH
BETTER RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WED NGT AND LOWS
BETWEEN 40-45 ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW SELECT COOL SPOTS TOUCHING THE
UPPER 30S BRIEFLY. /CME/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET
FORECAST IS SET TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S TO START THE
PERIOD THURSDAY...TO AROUND 80 TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT
TUESDAY.  THE SAME GOES FOR LOWS...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY
NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.  A BOUNDARY SWINGING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY COULD
BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BRIEF VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT WED MORNING AT MEI AND HBG...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM. /DL/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 210750
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
250 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN AND EVOLUTION OF IMPORTANT FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LINGERING...THIS CONTINUES TO
BE A TEMP TYPE FORECAST. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LOOK FOR LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND A TUE THAT WILL BE OVERALL WARMER THAN THE PREV
SEVERAL. EFFICIENT WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE TRUE ARRIVAL SOME SOME
COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY TO PEAK FROM THE UPPER
70S N TO LOWER 80S S. AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SFC WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP READINGS FROM
FALLING OFF TO MAXIMUM POTENTIAL AND LOOK FOR LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH CAA ONGOING WED...HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
THAN TODAY AND LOOK FOR A RANGE OF 70-77 FOR N/NE TO S. THE GFS MOS
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND MORE OF A NAM/RAW OUTPUT WAS USED. MUCH
BETTER RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WED NGT AND LOWS
BETWEEN 40-45 ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW SELECT COOL SPOTS TOUCHING THE
UPPER 30S BRIEFLY. /CME/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET
FORECAST IS SET TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S TO START THE
PERIOD THURSDAY...TO AROUND 80 TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT
TUESDAY.  THE SAME GOES FOR LOWS...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY
NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.  A BOUNDARY SWINGING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY COULD
BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...WHILE A SITE OR TWO MAY SEE A BRIEF RESTRICTION FROM
SHALLOW/PATCHY GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY WITH LIGHT N TYPE WINDS. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80  49  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      80  46  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     80  48  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   82  52  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       79  52  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    79  52  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     79  47  73  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/19/







000
FXUS64 KJAN 210750
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
250 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN AND EVOLUTION OF IMPORTANT FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LINGERING...THIS CONTINUES TO
BE A TEMP TYPE FORECAST. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LOOK FOR LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND A TUE THAT WILL BE OVERALL WARMER THAN THE PREV
SEVERAL. EFFICIENT WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE TRUE ARRIVAL SOME SOME
COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY TO PEAK FROM THE UPPER
70S N TO LOWER 80S S. AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SFC WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP READINGS FROM
FALLING OFF TO MAXIMUM POTENTIAL AND LOOK FOR LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH CAA ONGOING WED...HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
THAN TODAY AND LOOK FOR A RANGE OF 70-77 FOR N/NE TO S. THE GFS MOS
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND MORE OF A NAM/RAW OUTPUT WAS USED. MUCH
BETTER RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WED NGT AND LOWS
BETWEEN 40-45 ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW SELECT COOL SPOTS TOUCHING THE
UPPER 30S BRIEFLY. /CME/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET
FORECAST IS SET TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S TO START THE
PERIOD THURSDAY...TO AROUND 80 TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT
TUESDAY.  THE SAME GOES FOR LOWS...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY
NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.  A BOUNDARY SWINGING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY COULD
BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...WHILE A SITE OR TWO MAY SEE A BRIEF RESTRICTION FROM
SHALLOW/PATCHY GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY WITH LIGHT N TYPE WINDS. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80  49  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      80  46  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     80  48  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   82  52  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       79  52  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    79  52  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     79  47  73  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/19/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 210216 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
916 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED THE DEWPOINT TEMPS AS THEY WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECASTED. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO SHOW CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW HIGH THIN CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NEAR CALM WINDS TONIGHT WL BECOME NLY
AROUND 6KTS. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CLOUD DECK
OVER AR/TN/N MS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK UP AND DIMINISH AS
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND TROF AXIS PIVOTS INTO THE TN
VALLEY.

WITH ALREADY NORTHERLY WINDS NOT MUCH WILL BE LEFT OF THE ORPHANED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY TONIGHT OTHER THAN A SUBTLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AS DEWPOINTS...STILL IN THE 40S...WILL ONLY TEMPORARILY
RISE INTO THE 50S BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS PIVOTING OUT OF THE TN INTO THE OH VALLEY LOOKS
TO DEEPEN MARKEDLY DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. STRONG CONFLUENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BUILDING
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS/COLD ADVECTION DUE TO INCREASED GRADIENT FROM BUILDING
RIDGE...BUT THE RIDGE SEEMS TO BUILD EVENLY ALL THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY...THUS WITH NO INCREASE IN GRADIENT...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK AND RESULT IN NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION.

WHILE NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE EFFICIENT AND
SOMEWHAT SIMPLE FOR MOS TO GET A HANDLE ON...THE GFS ENSEMBLE DOES
SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE DAYTIME IN THIS SCENARIO. THE
OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE MOS DATA HAD ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF VARIANCE IN MAX
TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN ON THE HIGH
END OF THAT RANGE. WILL...THEREFORE...CUT THESE A COUPLE DEGREES./26/

LONG TERM...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY OVER THE 7 DAYS AS
GENERAL RIDGING WILL EXIST NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. LOOK FOR
SEASONAL TYPE CONDITIONS AS WE FINISH OUT THE WEEK WITH OUR FORECAST
AREA BEING ON THE BACK END OF A REINFORCING COOL/DRY PUSH OF AIR.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND A BIT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF NORMAL DURING
THIS TIME. STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT (HIGHER HEIGHTS) WILL BECOME
SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BETTER AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND ALLOW FOR ABV NORMAL TYPE CONDITIONS
(HIGHS/LOWS) TO DEVELOP FOR SAT-MON WITH SOME 80-85 DEGREE READINGS
MAKING A RETURN. BOTH THE EURO/GFS ADVERTISE ANOTHER COOL FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH AROUND TUE...BUT CHANCES ARE THIS FROPA WILL BE DRY AS
WELL. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       48  80  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      46  80  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     47  81  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   50  82  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       50  79  51  75 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    51  79  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     47  78  46  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KJAN 210216 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
916 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED THE DEWPOINT TEMPS AS THEY WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECASTED. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO SHOW CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW HIGH THIN CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NEAR CALM WINDS TONIGHT WL BECOME NLY
AROUND 6KTS. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CLOUD DECK
OVER AR/TN/N MS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK UP AND DIMINISH AS
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND TROF AXIS PIVOTS INTO THE TN
VALLEY.

WITH ALREADY NORTHERLY WINDS NOT MUCH WILL BE LEFT OF THE ORPHANED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY TONIGHT OTHER THAN A SUBTLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AS DEWPOINTS...STILL IN THE 40S...WILL ONLY TEMPORARILY
RISE INTO THE 50S BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS PIVOTING OUT OF THE TN INTO THE OH VALLEY LOOKS
TO DEEPEN MARKEDLY DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. STRONG CONFLUENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BUILDING
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS/COLD ADVECTION DUE TO INCREASED GRADIENT FROM BUILDING
RIDGE...BUT THE RIDGE SEEMS TO BUILD EVENLY ALL THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY...THUS WITH NO INCREASE IN GRADIENT...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK AND RESULT IN NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION.

WHILE NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE EFFICIENT AND
SOMEWHAT SIMPLE FOR MOS TO GET A HANDLE ON...THE GFS ENSEMBLE DOES
SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE DAYTIME IN THIS SCENARIO. THE
OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE MOS DATA HAD ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF VARIANCE IN MAX
TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN ON THE HIGH
END OF THAT RANGE. WILL...THEREFORE...CUT THESE A COUPLE DEGREES./26/

LONG TERM...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY OVER THE 7 DAYS AS
GENERAL RIDGING WILL EXIST NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. LOOK FOR
SEASONAL TYPE CONDITIONS AS WE FINISH OUT THE WEEK WITH OUR FORECAST
AREA BEING ON THE BACK END OF A REINFORCING COOL/DRY PUSH OF AIR.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND A BIT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF NORMAL DURING
THIS TIME. STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT (HIGHER HEIGHTS) WILL BECOME
SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BETTER AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND ALLOW FOR ABV NORMAL TYPE CONDITIONS
(HIGHS/LOWS) TO DEVELOP FOR SAT-MON WITH SOME 80-85 DEGREE READINGS
MAKING A RETURN. BOTH THE EURO/GFS ADVERTISE ANOTHER COOL FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH AROUND TUE...BUT CHANCES ARE THIS FROPA WILL BE DRY AS
WELL. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       48  80  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      46  80  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     47  81  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   50  82  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       50  79  51  75 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    51  79  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     47  78  46  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 210216 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
916 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED THE DEWPOINT TEMPS AS THEY WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECASTED. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO SHOW CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW HIGH THIN CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NEAR CALM WINDS TONIGHT WL BECOME NLY
AROUND 6KTS. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CLOUD DECK
OVER AR/TN/N MS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK UP AND DIMINISH AS
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND TROF AXIS PIVOTS INTO THE TN
VALLEY.

WITH ALREADY NORTHERLY WINDS NOT MUCH WILL BE LEFT OF THE ORPHANED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY TONIGHT OTHER THAN A SUBTLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AS DEWPOINTS...STILL IN THE 40S...WILL ONLY TEMPORARILY
RISE INTO THE 50S BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS PIVOTING OUT OF THE TN INTO THE OH VALLEY LOOKS
TO DEEPEN MARKEDLY DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. STRONG CONFLUENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BUILDING
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS/COLD ADVECTION DUE TO INCREASED GRADIENT FROM BUILDING
RIDGE...BUT THE RIDGE SEEMS TO BUILD EVENLY ALL THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY...THUS WITH NO INCREASE IN GRADIENT...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK AND RESULT IN NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION.

WHILE NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE EFFICIENT AND
SOMEWHAT SIMPLE FOR MOS TO GET A HANDLE ON...THE GFS ENSEMBLE DOES
SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE DAYTIME IN THIS SCENARIO. THE
OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE MOS DATA HAD ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF VARIANCE IN MAX
TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN ON THE HIGH
END OF THAT RANGE. WILL...THEREFORE...CUT THESE A COUPLE DEGREES./26/

LONG TERM...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY OVER THE 7 DAYS AS
GENERAL RIDGING WILL EXIST NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. LOOK FOR
SEASONAL TYPE CONDITIONS AS WE FINISH OUT THE WEEK WITH OUR FORECAST
AREA BEING ON THE BACK END OF A REINFORCING COOL/DRY PUSH OF AIR.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND A BIT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF NORMAL DURING
THIS TIME. STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT (HIGHER HEIGHTS) WILL BECOME
SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BETTER AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND ALLOW FOR ABV NORMAL TYPE CONDITIONS
(HIGHS/LOWS) TO DEVELOP FOR SAT-MON WITH SOME 80-85 DEGREE READINGS
MAKING A RETURN. BOTH THE EURO/GFS ADVERTISE ANOTHER COOL FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH AROUND TUE...BUT CHANCES ARE THIS FROPA WILL BE DRY AS
WELL. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       48  80  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      46  80  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     47  81  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   50  82  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       50  79  51  75 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    51  79  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     47  78  46  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KJAN 210216 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
916 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED THE DEWPOINT TEMPS AS THEY WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN FORECASTED. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO SHOW CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW HIGH THIN CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NEAR CALM WINDS TONIGHT WL BECOME NLY
AROUND 6KTS. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CLOUD DECK
OVER AR/TN/N MS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK UP AND DIMINISH AS
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND TROF AXIS PIVOTS INTO THE TN
VALLEY.

WITH ALREADY NORTHERLY WINDS NOT MUCH WILL BE LEFT OF THE ORPHANED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY TONIGHT OTHER THAN A SUBTLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AS DEWPOINTS...STILL IN THE 40S...WILL ONLY TEMPORARILY
RISE INTO THE 50S BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS PIVOTING OUT OF THE TN INTO THE OH VALLEY LOOKS
TO DEEPEN MARKEDLY DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. STRONG CONFLUENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BUILDING
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS/COLD ADVECTION DUE TO INCREASED GRADIENT FROM BUILDING
RIDGE...BUT THE RIDGE SEEMS TO BUILD EVENLY ALL THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY...THUS WITH NO INCREASE IN GRADIENT...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK AND RESULT IN NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION.

WHILE NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE EFFICIENT AND
SOMEWHAT SIMPLE FOR MOS TO GET A HANDLE ON...THE GFS ENSEMBLE DOES
SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE DAYTIME IN THIS SCENARIO. THE
OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE MOS DATA HAD ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF VARIANCE IN MAX
TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN ON THE HIGH
END OF THAT RANGE. WILL...THEREFORE...CUT THESE A COUPLE DEGREES./26/

LONG TERM...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY OVER THE 7 DAYS AS
GENERAL RIDGING WILL EXIST NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. LOOK FOR
SEASONAL TYPE CONDITIONS AS WE FINISH OUT THE WEEK WITH OUR FORECAST
AREA BEING ON THE BACK END OF A REINFORCING COOL/DRY PUSH OF AIR.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND A BIT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF NORMAL DURING
THIS TIME. STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT (HIGHER HEIGHTS) WILL BECOME
SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BETTER AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND ALLOW FOR ABV NORMAL TYPE CONDITIONS
(HIGHS/LOWS) TO DEVELOP FOR SAT-MON WITH SOME 80-85 DEGREE READINGS
MAKING A RETURN. BOTH THE EURO/GFS ADVERTISE ANOTHER COOL FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH AROUND TUE...BUT CHANCES ARE THIS FROPA WILL BE DRY AS
WELL. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       48  80  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      46  80  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     47  81  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   50  82  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       50  79  51  75 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    51  79  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     47  78  46  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 201944
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
244 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FEATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CLOUD DECK
OVER AR/TN/N MS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK UP AND DIMINISH AS
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND TROF AXIS PIVOTS INTO THE TN
VALLEY.

WITH ALREADY NORTHERLY WINDS NOT MUCH WILL BE LEFT OF THE ORPHANED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY TONIGHT OTHER THAN A SUBTLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AS DEWPOINTS...STILL IN THE 40S...WILL ONLY TEMPORARILY
RISE INTO THE 50S BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS PIVOTING OUT OF THE TN INTO THE OH VALLEY LOOKS
TO DEEPEN MARKEDLY DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. STRONG CONFLUENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BUILDING
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY. WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS/COLD ADVECTION DUE TO INCREASED GRADIENT FROM BUILDING
RIDGE...BUT THE RIDGE SEEMS TO BUILD EVENLY ALL THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY...THUS WITH NO INCREASE IN GRADIENT...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK AND RESULT IN NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION.

WHILE NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE EFFICIENT AND
SOMEWHAT SIMPLE FOR MOS TO GET A HANDLE ON...THE GFS ENSEMBLE DOES
SEEM TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE DAYTIME IN THIS SCENARIO. THE
OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE MOS DATA HAD ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF VARIANCE IN MAX
TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUN ON THE HIGH
END OF THAT RANGE. WILL...THEREFORE...CUT THESE A COUPLE DEGREES./26/

.LONG TERM...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY OVER THE 7 DAYS AS
GENERAL RIDGING WILL EXIST NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. LOOK FOR
SEASONAL TYPE CONDITIONS AS WE FINISH OUT THE WEEK WITH OUR FORECAST
AREA BEING ON THE BACK END OF A REINFORCING COOL/DRY PUSH OF AIR.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND A BIT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF NORMAL DURING
THIS TIME. STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT (HIGHER HEIGHTS) WILL BECOME
SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BETTER AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND ALLOW FOR ABV NORMAL TYPE CONDITIONS
(HIGHS/LOWS) TO DEVELOP FOR SAT-MON WITH SOME 80-85 DEGREE READINGS
MAKING A RETURN. BOTH THE EURO/GFS ADVERTISE ANOTHER COOL FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH AROUND TUE...BUT CHANCES ARE THIS FROPA WILL BE DRY AS
WELL. /CME/



&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT INTO
TONIGHT FROM THE N/NW AROUND 4-6KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING AROUND 09Z NEAR WATER SOURCES AND LOW LYING
AREAS...WHICH WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z. /17/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       48  80  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      45  80  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     46  81  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   49  82  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       50  79  51  75 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    51  79  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     47  78  46  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 201545 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1045 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED SKY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH AS CLOUD DECK MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH AR/TN HAS BEEN ERODING ON ITS LEADING EDGE. THIS CLOUD
DECK ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IN NE
OK...BUT IT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE DRY BY THE TIME
IT MAKES IT THIS FAR SOUTH./26/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY
INTO TONIGHT FROM THE N/NW AROUND 4-6KTS. /17/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
IN STORE AS 1020MB SURFACE HIGH IS PARKED OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY DIG AND DEEPEN
TODAY...SWINGING A WEAK DRY FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BUT LIKELY ONLY SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT AND WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE N/NW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONAL ON MONDAY IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S. EVEN WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS...CHILLY NIGHT IN
STORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. MEXMOS IS
FINE FOR BOTH PERIODS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
WINDS MORE FROM THE N/NE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE H900 TEMPS
WARMING SLIGHTLY...WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS
THE AREA. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR HIGHS TUESDAY THAN
MEXMOS...CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE EURO MOS/METMOS. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN THE
SW TO LOW 40S IN THE NE AND PWATS WILL FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW
0.5 INCHES. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN THE AREA. WENT NEAR MEXMOS FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE N/NE. /DC/

LONG TERM...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY OVER THE 7 DAYS AS
GENERAL RIDGING WILL EXIST NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. LOOK FOR
SEASONAL TYPE CONDITIONS AS WE FINISH OUT THE WEEK (WED-FRI) WITH
OUR FORECAST AREA BEING ON THE BACK END OF A REINFORCING COOL/DRY
PUSH OF AIR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND A BIT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
NORMAL DURING THIS TIME. STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT (HIGHER HEIGHTS)
WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BETTER AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND ALLOW FOR ABV NORMAL
TYPE CONDITIONS (HIGHS/LOWS) TO DEVELOP FOR SAT-MON WITH SOME 80-85
DEGREE READINGS MAKING A RETURN. BOTH THE EURO/GFS ADVERTISE ANOTHER
COOL FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH AROUND TUE...BUT CHANCES ARE THIS FROPA
WILL BE DRY AS WELL. /CME/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  50  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      77  47  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     76  48  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   78  51  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       76  51  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    76  52  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     75  50  77  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 200850
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
350 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
IN STORE AS 1020MB SURFACE HIGH IS PARKED OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY DIG AND DEEPEN
TODAY...SWINGING A WEAK DRY FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BUT LIKELY ONLY SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT AND WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE N/NW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONAL ON MONDAY IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S. EVEN WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS...CHILLY NIGHT IN
STORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. MEXMOS IS
FINE FOR BOTH PERIODS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
WINDS MORE FROM THE N/NE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE H900 TEMPS
WARMING SLIGHTLY...WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS
THE AREA. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR HIGHS TUESDAY THAN
MEXMOS...CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE EURO MOS/METMOS. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN THE
SW TO LOW 40S IN THE NE AND PWATS WILL FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW
0.5 INCHES. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN THE AREA. WENT NEAR MEXMOS FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE N/NE. /DC/

.LONG TERM...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY OVER THE 7 DAYS AS
GENERAL RIDGING WILL EXIST NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. LOOK FOR
SEASONAL TYPE CONDITIONS AS WE FINISH OUT THE WEEK (WED-FRI) WITH
OUR FORECAST AREA BEING ON THE BACK END OF A REINFORCING COOL/DRY
PUSH OF AIR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND A BIT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
NORMAL DURING THIS TIME. STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT (HIGHER HEIGHTS)
WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BETTER AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND ALLOW FOR ABV NORMAL
TYPE CONDITIONS (HIGHS/LOWS) TO DEVELOP FOR SAT-MON WITH SOME 80-85
DEGREE READINGS MAKING A RETURN. BOTH THE EURO/GFS ADVERTISE ANOTHER
COOL FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH AROUND TUE...BUT CHANCES ARE THIS FROPA
WILL BE DRY AS WELL. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES WITH KGTR/KGLH VIS/CIG
CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO IFR/LIFR CONDS. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE AT
KGTR/KGLH BY 20/14-16Z. SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE ALSO PSBL AT KMEI
BETWEEN 20/11-14Z. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY AND WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TODAY FROM THE N/NW AROUND 4-6KTS. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  50  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      77  47  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     76  48  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   78  51  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       76  51  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    76  52  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     75  50  77  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/CME







000
FXUS64 KJAN 200850
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
350 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
IN STORE AS 1020MB SURFACE HIGH IS PARKED OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY DIG AND DEEPEN
TODAY...SWINGING A WEAK DRY FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BUT LIKELY ONLY SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT AND WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE N/NW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONAL ON MONDAY IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S. EVEN WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS...CHILLY NIGHT IN
STORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. MEXMOS IS
FINE FOR BOTH PERIODS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
WINDS MORE FROM THE N/NE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE H900 TEMPS
WARMING SLIGHTLY...WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS
THE AREA. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR HIGHS TUESDAY THAN
MEXMOS...CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE EURO MOS/METMOS. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN THE
SW TO LOW 40S IN THE NE AND PWATS WILL FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW
0.5 INCHES. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN THE AREA. WENT NEAR MEXMOS FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE N/NE. /DC/

.LONG TERM...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY OVER THE 7 DAYS AS
GENERAL RIDGING WILL EXIST NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. LOOK FOR
SEASONAL TYPE CONDITIONS AS WE FINISH OUT THE WEEK (WED-FRI) WITH
OUR FORECAST AREA BEING ON THE BACK END OF A REINFORCING COOL/DRY
PUSH OF AIR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND A BIT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
NORMAL DURING THIS TIME. STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT (HIGHER HEIGHTS)
WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BETTER AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND ALLOW FOR ABV NORMAL
TYPE CONDITIONS (HIGHS/LOWS) TO DEVELOP FOR SAT-MON WITH SOME 80-85
DEGREE READINGS MAKING A RETURN. BOTH THE EURO/GFS ADVERTISE ANOTHER
COOL FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH AROUND TUE...BUT CHANCES ARE THIS FROPA
WILL BE DRY AS WELL. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES WITH KGTR/KGLH VIS/CIG
CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO IFR/LIFR CONDS. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE AT
KGTR/KGLH BY 20/14-16Z. SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE ALSO PSBL AT KMEI
BETWEEN 20/11-14Z. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY AND WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TODAY FROM THE N/NW AROUND 4-6KTS. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  50  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      77  47  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     76  48  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   78  51  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       76  51  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    76  52  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     75  50  77  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/CME






000
FXUS64 KJAN 200202 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
902 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...ANOTHER DRY NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE ARKLAMISS WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 40S. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NEAR
CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW AND N ON MONDAY.
/DL/22/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS TROF OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY DIGS
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL MOVE OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND BECOME SEMI-
ANCHORED OVER THE MS VALLEY.

AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS SE...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MAKE A RUN FOR THE CWA TUESDAY. WITH PRESENT SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING
WEDGED OVER THE CWA...RETURN FLOW WILL NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO SET
UP. THUS...OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDS RESULTING FROM CONVERGENCE ALONG
ITS LEADING EDGE...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OR OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

AFTER ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT...A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL COOL
BACK DOWN AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT./26/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A SLIGHT
WARMUP AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. A MID LEVEL TROF WILL DROP INTO
THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY SHOWER CHANCES
FRI-SAT. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       44  77  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      41  76  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     42  77  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   46  80  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       47  75  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    46  76  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     43  75  48  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 200202 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
902 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...ANOTHER DRY NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE ARKLAMISS WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 40S. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NEAR
CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW AND N ON MONDAY.
/DL/22/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS TROF OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY DIGS
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL MOVE OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND BECOME SEMI-
ANCHORED OVER THE MS VALLEY.

AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS SE...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MAKE A RUN FOR THE CWA TUESDAY. WITH PRESENT SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING
WEDGED OVER THE CWA...RETURN FLOW WILL NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO SET
UP. THUS...OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDS RESULTING FROM CONVERGENCE ALONG
ITS LEADING EDGE...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OR OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

AFTER ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT...A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL COOL
BACK DOWN AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT./26/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A SLIGHT
WARMUP AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. A MID LEVEL TROF WILL DROP INTO
THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY SHOWER CHANCES
FRI-SAT. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       44  77  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      41  76  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     42  77  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   46  80  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       47  75  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    46  76  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     43  75  48  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 191925 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS TROF OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY DIGS
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL MOVE OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND BECOME SEMI-
ANCHORED OVER THE MS VALLEY.

AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS SE...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MAKE A RUN FOR THE CWA TUESDAY. WITH PRESENT SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING
WEDGED OVER THE CWA...RETURN FLOW WILL NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO SET
UP. THUS...OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDS RESULTING FROM CONVERGENCE ALONG
ITS LEADING EDGE...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OR OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

AFTER ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT...A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL COOL
BACK DOWN AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT./26/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A SLIGHT
WARMUP AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. A MID LEVEL TROF WILL DROP INTO
THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY SHOWER CHANCES
FRI-SAT. /SW/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW AND N ON MONDAY.
/DL/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       44  77  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      41  76  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     42  77  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   46  80  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       47  75  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    46  76  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     43  75  48  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 191925 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS TROF OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY DIGS
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL MOVE OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND BECOME SEMI-
ANCHORED OVER THE MS VALLEY.

AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS SE...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MAKE A RUN FOR THE CWA TUESDAY. WITH PRESENT SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING
WEDGED OVER THE CWA...RETURN FLOW WILL NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO SET
UP. THUS...OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDS RESULTING FROM CONVERGENCE ALONG
ITS LEADING EDGE...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OR OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

AFTER ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT...A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL COOL
BACK DOWN AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT./26/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A SLIGHT
WARMUP AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. A MID LEVEL TROF WILL DROP INTO
THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY SHOWER CHANCES
FRI-SAT. /SW/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW AND N ON MONDAY.
/DL/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       44  77  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      41  76  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     42  77  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   46  80  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       47  75  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    46  76  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     43  75  48  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 191536 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1036 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. FLAT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSING
OVER THE REGION AT THE MOMENT WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY CLEAR WEATHER
TODAY. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH WILL DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DESCENDS OVER THE CWA./26/


&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. /DL/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...QUIET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND RIDGING
OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUT WEATHER DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN TODAY.
READINGS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL RETURN...ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE WARMER CONDITIONS MONDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A SFC LOW. THIS WILL DROP ANOTHER
FRONT DOWN TOWARDS OUR REGION LATER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THIS
AGAIN WILL BE A DRY FRONT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE OVER OUR
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S...THOUGH AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. /28/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ONLY
CAUSE A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHT DROP IN THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.
MID LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK LEADING TO A SLIGHT WARMUP AND DRY CONDITIONS. A MID LEVEL
TROF WILL DROP INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ANY SHOWER CHANCES FRI-SAT. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AROUND 5-7KTS BEFORE GOING LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  44  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      75  40  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     74  42  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   76  46  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       73  47  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    70  46  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     71  44  76  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 191536 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1036 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. FLAT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSING
OVER THE REGION AT THE MOMENT WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY CLEAR WEATHER
TODAY. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH WILL DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DESCENDS OVER THE CWA./26/


&&


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. /DL/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...QUIET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND RIDGING
OVERHEAD WILL KEEP OUT WEATHER DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUN TODAY.
READINGS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL RETURN...ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE WARMER CONDITIONS MONDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A SFC LOW. THIS WILL DROP ANOTHER
FRONT DOWN TOWARDS OUR REGION LATER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THIS
AGAIN WILL BE A DRY FRONT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE OVER OUR
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S...THOUGH AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. /28/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ONLY
CAUSE A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHT DROP IN THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.
MID LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK LEADING TO A SLIGHT WARMUP AND DRY CONDITIONS. A MID LEVEL
TROF WILL DROP INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ANY SHOWER CHANCES FRI-SAT. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AROUND 5-7KTS BEFORE GOING LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  44  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      75  40  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     74  42  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   76  46  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       73  47  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    70  46  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     71  44  76  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








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