Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KJAN 200908
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
408 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF S/WV RIDGING SUPPRESSION OVER THE REGION TODAY ON
BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER GA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CAROLINAS FORCING DRIER AIR INTO REGION FROM NE WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES NIL. 00Z KJAN SOUNDING OBSERVED A PWAT OF 1.41" WITH
UPSTREAM BMX AT 1.26". THE DRIER AIR TO OUR E/NE WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER IN THROUGH THE DAY AND EVEN BE DIFFICULT TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS BY 2-5F DEGREES EXPECTED
HOWEVER WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR 23-25C SUPPORTING UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE PLAINS WILL HELP FACILITATE A
COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH LITTLE TO NO DYNAMICS, WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AND
ONLY SLIGHT MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONT, CONTINUE TO FEEL RAIN WILL
BE LIMITED IN SCOPE AND QUANTITY WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY AND
WARM AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WHILE THERE IS CONFIDENCE OF SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG A BAND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, FEEL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW AND SPORADIC. THUS,
HAVE PLACED ONLY 15-20% POP FOR FAR NORTH AREAS SUNDAY LATE AFTN
INTO OVERNIGHT MONDAY. /ALLEN/

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COME MONDAY MORNING A SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT WILL BE MID WAY THROUGH OUR CWA. THE NAM IS BY FAR THE
WETTEST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MODEL CONSENSUS IS RATHER
DRY. WL CARRY ISOLATED WORDING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR CWA BY EVENING AND MUCH DRIER AND A LITTLE
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. PWS
WILL DROP BELOW A HALF INCH AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COOLEST MORNING LOWS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S
SOUTH. NORMAL LOWS ARE NEAR 60 DEGREES AT MOST SITES. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WAS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES NORTH INTO CANADA. THIS WILL LEAVE US WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT AND AN EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. NORMAL HIGHS RUN NEAR 85
DEGREES TUESDAY AND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A DRIER
AIRMASS...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL RAPIDLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT
WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
MOST SITES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 60 DEGREES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY RESULTING IN THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. RIDGING ALOFT
WILL AMPLIFY OVER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE TROUGHING ALOFT
DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF OUR CWA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THAT WILL LEAD TO
THE CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR SKC CONDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING MINUS KHBG WITH 4-5SM
VIS DUE TO GROUND FOG. SOME SPORADIC GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 1330Z BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATE THEREAFTER WITH VFR PREVAILING
REST OF DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF E/NE LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY FEW060 CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BEFORE SKC AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  65  91  65 /   4   3   5  14
MERIDIAN      87  64  90  64 /   3   3   5  14
VICKSBURG     91  64  92  65 /   5   3   5  14
HATTIESBURG   89  67  92  67 /   4   2   2  14
NATCHEZ       89  66  90  66 /   5   1   2  14
GREENVILLE    91  66  92  62 /   4   2  12  16
GREENWOOD     90  65  92  61 /   3   2  14  16

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/22






000
FXUS64 KJAN 200908
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
408 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF S/WV RIDGING SUPPRESSION OVER THE REGION TODAY ON
BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER GA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CAROLINAS FORCING DRIER AIR INTO REGION FROM NE WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES NIL. 00Z KJAN SOUNDING OBSERVED A PWAT OF 1.41" WITH
UPSTREAM BMX AT 1.26". THE DRIER AIR TO OUR E/NE WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER IN THROUGH THE DAY AND EVEN BE DIFFICULT TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS BY 2-5F DEGREES EXPECTED
HOWEVER WITH 925MB TEMPS NEAR 23-25C SUPPORTING UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE PLAINS WILL HELP FACILITATE A
COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH LITTLE TO NO DYNAMICS, WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AND
ONLY SLIGHT MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONT, CONTINUE TO FEEL RAIN WILL
BE LIMITED IN SCOPE AND QUANTITY WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY AND
WARM AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WHILE THERE IS CONFIDENCE OF SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG A BAND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, FEEL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW AND SPORADIC. THUS,
HAVE PLACED ONLY 15-20% POP FOR FAR NORTH AREAS SUNDAY LATE AFTN
INTO OVERNIGHT MONDAY. /ALLEN/

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COME MONDAY MORNING A SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT WILL BE MID WAY THROUGH OUR CWA. THE NAM IS BY FAR THE
WETTEST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT MODEL CONSENSUS IS RATHER
DRY. WL CARRY ISOLATED WORDING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR CWA BY EVENING AND MUCH DRIER AND A LITTLE
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. PWS
WILL DROP BELOW A HALF INCH AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COOLEST MORNING LOWS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S
SOUTH. NORMAL LOWS ARE NEAR 60 DEGREES AT MOST SITES. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WAS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES NORTH INTO CANADA. THIS WILL LEAVE US WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT AND AN EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. NORMAL HIGHS RUN NEAR 85
DEGREES TUESDAY AND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A DRIER
AIRMASS...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL RAPIDLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT
WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
MOST SITES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR 60 DEGREES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY RESULTING IN THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. RIDGING ALOFT
WILL AMPLIFY OVER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE TROUGHING ALOFT
DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF OUR CWA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THAT WILL LEAD TO
THE CHANCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR SKC CONDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING MINUS KHBG WITH 4-5SM
VIS DUE TO GROUND FOG. SOME SPORADIC GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 1330Z BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATE THEREAFTER WITH VFR PREVAILING
REST OF DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF E/NE LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY FEW060 CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BEFORE SKC AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  65  91  65 /   4   3   5  14
MERIDIAN      87  64  90  64 /   3   3   5  14
VICKSBURG     91  64  92  65 /   5   3   5  14
HATTIESBURG   89  67  92  67 /   4   2   2  14
NATCHEZ       89  66  90  66 /   5   1   2  14
GREENVILLE    91  66  92  62 /   4   2  12  16
GREENWOOD     90  65  92  61 /   3   2  14  16

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/22







000
FXUS64 KJAN 200116 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
816 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A COUPLE SHOWERS ARE STILL STRAGGLING ALONG DOWN NEAR THE HWY 84
CORRIDOR IN SW MS. EXPECT THESE TO BE GONE BY 03Z OR SO. THE SKY GRIDS
WERE UPDATED FOR OVERNIGHT BUT OTHERWISE SEE NO REASON TO MESS WITH
ANYTHING ELSE. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE MORNING HOURS
AROUND DAWN. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE
HINTS AT BETTER LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG POTENTIAL OVER
EASTERN MS WHERE OCNL IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS APPEAR TO BE MORE
LIKELY...BUT AT LEAST MVFR CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL
SITES. FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO GENERATE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SURFACE ANALYSIS
AND VIS IMAGERY HAS REVEALED A NORTH-SOUTH CONVERGENT AXIS/TROF
BISECTING MS AT THE MOMENT. SPARSE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THIS AXIS AS WELL AS SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE IN THE SOUTH WHERE
BROADER CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING. WESTWARD MOVING CONVECTIVE AREA
OVER AL IS A LITTLE CONCERNING FOR EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...BUT THE HRRR SEEMS TO DECREASE THE COVERAGE AS IT CROSSES
THE STATELINE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS MID LEVEL MOIST LAYER BECOMES
SHALLOWER THE FURTHER WEST IT GETS. CONVECTION LOOKS TO GO TO SLEEP
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT DID DECIDE TO LEAVE SOME SLIGHT POPS IN FOR
THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THAT IS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THE LONGEST.

SATURDAY AND FOR THE MOST PART SUNDAY LOOKS DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS
LOW/MID LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CUT OFF THE GULF AND ALLOW
SOME UPPER 50/LOWER 60 SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO WEDGE IN FROM AL/GA.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO ADD A WEAK SUBSIDENT COMPONENT TO
THE VERTICAL MOTION AS WELL.

MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIGGING OUT OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO PHASE WITH WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
ALONG THE EAST COAST. AS THIS WAVE SWINGS BY TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MS BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. AS COLD FRONT ARRIVAL
TIME WILL BE LATE IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACTIVE
CONVECTION SUNDAY...HOWEVER...POOLING MOISTURE AND THE FRONTAL LIFT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH./26/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL...THE LONG TERM CAN
BE SUMMARIZED A NICE DOWNWARD TREND TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS REINFORCING COOL AIR
INTRUSIONS OCCUR OVER THE ARKLAMISS.

ALL LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH
REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION BUT THE EC IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR INSTABILITY INDUCED SHOWERS
ALONG THE FAR SOUTH. YET, FEEL MOST OF REGION WILL BE DRY MONDAY AS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH CLOUDS CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS WILL SETTLE OVER REGION TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SLIGHT UPWARD MODIFICATION TO END OF WEEK ALLOWING FOR
COMFORTABLE LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH SOME MID 50S
POSSIBLE. WOULD BE MORE CONFIDENT IN MID TO LOW 50S IN THIS SET UP
BUT DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP OVERNIGHT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO FULL LOW
POTENTIAL. HIGHS WILL LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN AS A NICE REX BLOCK TO OUR EAST ALLOWS FOR
CONTINUAL LOW-LEVEL EAST/NE COOL AIR FETCH. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS (AND A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS) THIS
AFTERNOON STRAY AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CATS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GOING
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS DUE TO
LIGHT FOG.

SURFACE WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND
LIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  90  65  91 /   5   2   3  13
MERIDIAN      64  88  63  90 /  10   1   3  12
VICKSBURG     64  91  63  91 /   4   2   3  14
HATTIESBURG   67  91  67  91 /  10   3   2  12
NATCHEZ       67  89  66  90 /  10   5   3  11
GREENVILLE    67  91  67  92 /   3   4   6  17
GREENWOOD     66  90  65  91 /   3   4   5  17

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 192051 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
351 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO GENERATE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SURFACE ANALYSIS
AND VIS IMAGERY HAS REVEALED A NORTH-SOUTH CONVERGENT AXIS/TROF
BISECTING MS AT THE MOMENT. SPARSE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THIS AXIS AS WELL AS SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE IN THE SOUTH WHERE
BROADER CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING. WESTWARD MOVING CONVECTIVE AREA
OVER AL IS A LITTLE CONCERNING FOR EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...BUT THE HRRR SEEMS TO DECREASE THE COVERAGE AS IT CROSSES
THE STATELINE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS MID LEVEL MOIST LAYER BECOMES
SHALLOWER THE FURTHER WEST IT GETS. CONVECTION LOOKS TO GO TO SLEEP
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT DID DECIDE TO LEAVE SOME SLIGHT POPS IN FOR
THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THAT IS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THE LONGEST.

SATURDAY AND FOR THE MOST PART SUNDAY LOOKS DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS
LOW/MID LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CUT OFF THE GULF AND ALLOW
SOME UPPER 50/LOWER 60 SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO WEDGE IN FROM AL/GA.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO ADD A WEAK SUBSIDENT COMPONENT TO
THE VERTICAL MOTION AS WELL.

MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIGGING OUT OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO PHASE WITH WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
ALONG THE EAST COAST. AS THIS WAVE SWINGS BY TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MS BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. AS COLD FRONT ARRIVAL
TIME WILL BE LATE IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACTIVE
CONVECTION SUNDAY...HOWEVER...POOLING MOISTURE AND THE FRONTAL LIFT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH./26/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL...THE LONG TERM CAN
BE SUMMARIZED A NICE DOWNWARD TREND TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS REINFORCING COOL AIR
INTRUSIONS OCCUR OVER THE ARKLAMISS.

ALL LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH
REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION BUT THE EC IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR INSTABILITY INDUCED SHOWERS
ALONG THE FAR SOUTH. YET, FEEL MOST OF REGION WILL BE DRY MONDAY AS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH CLOUDS CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS WILL SETTLE OVER REGION TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SLIGHT UPWARD MODIFICATION TO END OF WEEK ALLOWING FOR
COMFORTABLE LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH SOME MID 50S
POSSIBLE. WOULD BE MORE CONFIDENT IN MID TO LOW 50S IN THIS SET UP
BUT DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP OVERNIGHT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO FULL LOW
POTENTIAL. HIGHS WILL LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN AS A NICE REX BLOCK TO OUR EAST ALLOWS FOR
CONTINUAL LOW-LEVEL EAST/NE COOL AIR FETCH. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS (AND A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS) THIS
AFTERNOON STRAY AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CATS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GOING
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS DUE TO
LIGHT FOG.

SURFACE WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND
LIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  90  65  91 /   6   2   3  13
MERIDIAN      64  88  63  90 /  15   1   3  12
VICKSBURG     64  91  63  91 /   4   2   3  14
HATTIESBURG   67  91  67  91 /  17   3   2  12
NATCHEZ       67  89  66  90 /  16   5   3  11
GREENVILLE    67  91  67  92 /   3   4   6  17
GREENWOOD     66  90  65  91 /   3   4   5  17

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 192051 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
351 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS BEEN
SLOW TO GENERATE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SURFACE ANALYSIS
AND VIS IMAGERY HAS REVEALED A NORTH-SOUTH CONVERGENT AXIS/TROF
BISECTING MS AT THE MOMENT. SPARSE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THIS AXIS AS WELL AS SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE IN THE SOUTH WHERE
BROADER CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING. WESTWARD MOVING CONVECTIVE AREA
OVER AL IS A LITTLE CONCERNING FOR EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...BUT THE HRRR SEEMS TO DECREASE THE COVERAGE AS IT CROSSES
THE STATELINE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS MID LEVEL MOIST LAYER BECOMES
SHALLOWER THE FURTHER WEST IT GETS. CONVECTION LOOKS TO GO TO SLEEP
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT DID DECIDE TO LEAVE SOME SLIGHT POPS IN FOR
THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THAT IS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THE LONGEST.

SATURDAY AND FOR THE MOST PART SUNDAY LOOKS DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS
LOW/MID LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CUT OFF THE GULF AND ALLOW
SOME UPPER 50/LOWER 60 SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO WEDGE IN FROM AL/GA.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO ADD A WEAK SUBSIDENT COMPONENT TO
THE VERTICAL MOTION AS WELL.

MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIGGING OUT OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO PHASE WITH WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
ALONG THE EAST COAST. AS THIS WAVE SWINGS BY TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MS BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. AS COLD FRONT ARRIVAL
TIME WILL BE LATE IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACTIVE
CONVECTION SUNDAY...HOWEVER...POOLING MOISTURE AND THE FRONTAL LIFT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH./26/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL...THE LONG TERM CAN
BE SUMMARIZED A NICE DOWNWARD TREND TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL READINGS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS REINFORCING COOL AIR
INTRUSIONS OCCUR OVER THE ARKLAMISS.

ALL LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH
REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION BUT THE EC IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR INSTABILITY INDUCED SHOWERS
ALONG THE FAR SOUTH. YET, FEEL MOST OF REGION WILL BE DRY MONDAY AS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH CLOUDS CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS WILL SETTLE OVER REGION TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SLIGHT UPWARD MODIFICATION TO END OF WEEK ALLOWING FOR
COMFORTABLE LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH SOME MID 50S
POSSIBLE. WOULD BE MORE CONFIDENT IN MID TO LOW 50S IN THIS SET UP
BUT DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP OVERNIGHT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO FULL LOW
POTENTIAL. HIGHS WILL LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN AS A NICE REX BLOCK TO OUR EAST ALLOWS FOR
CONTINUAL LOW-LEVEL EAST/NE COOL AIR FETCH. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS (AND A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS) THIS
AFTERNOON STRAY AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CATS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GOING
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS DUE TO
LIGHT FOG.

SURFACE WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND
LIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  90  65  91 /   6   2   3  13
MERIDIAN      64  88  63  90 /  15   1   3  12
VICKSBURG     64  91  63  91 /   4   2   3  14
HATTIESBURG   67  91  67  91 /  17   3   2  12
NATCHEZ       67  89  66  90 /  16   5   3  11
GREENVILLE    67  91  67  92 /   3   4   6  17
GREENWOOD     66  90  65  91 /   3   4   5  17

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 191459 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
959 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...WV IMAGERY SHOWING WHAT LOOKS LIKE MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING...BUT AREA SOUNDINGS ARE STILL INDICATING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE. HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT LOCAL WRF ARE BOTH
INDICATING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO THE NORTH. FORECAST CELLS HAVE A
MORE WESTERLY MOVEMENT INDICATING THAT THEY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT
SHALLOW AS THE EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. UPPED
POPS IN THE GRIDS TO CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTH WHILE SPREADING THE
SLIGHT CHANCE AREA FURTHER NORTH AND WEST./26/


&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES ARE IMPROVING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS (MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF I-20) STRAY
AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CATS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GOING INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECT
AT LEAST PATCHY MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS DUE TO LIGHT FOG.

SURFACE WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND
LIGHT. /BB/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY OUR REGION WILL SEE THE PATTERN CHANGE SOME AS
WE TRANSITION FROM A NW FLOW REGIME TO ONE OF S/WV RIDGING. THIS
RIDGING LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AS WE SHIFT TO A NW FLOW PATTERN AGAIN
FOR SUNDAY. TODAY LOOK FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AS THE AREA
WILL BE LOCATED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE S/WV TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO
SERVER TO PUSH SOUTHWARD MUCH DRIER UPPER LEVEL AIR. WHAT WAS
THOUGHT TO BE A PRECIP FREE DAY TODAY IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ISO SHOWERS AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOWER TO EXIT THE AREA. STILL...THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGING AND
DRYING ALOFT LOOK TO LIMIT ACTIVITY. WILL GO WITH 10-20% POPS AND
ISO SHRA WORDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT AND BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND REALLY LIMIT
CLOUDS AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.

AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO ON THE WARM SIDE AND ABV NORMS
FOR MID SEP. LOOK FOR HIGHS 88-92 TODAY AND SAT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE A
TAD LOWER THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND
SOME LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ALLOWING FOR MORE READINGS TO REACH THE MID
60S. /CME/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

OVERALL, THE LONG TERM CAN BE SUMMARIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THEN A NICE DOWNWARD TREND TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
READINGS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS REINFORCING COOL AIR INTRUSIONS
OCCUR OVER THE ARKLAMISS.

BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, A SOUTH-BOUND COOL FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ARKLAMISS FROM THE NORTH AS STRONGER TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES DRIVES STRONGER NW FLOW TOWARDS THE REGION. A
MOISTURE RIBBON LOOKS TO BE TRAPPED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
AND THIS WILL ACT TO INCREASE PWATS TO NEAR 1.5" SUNDAY AFTN FOR THE
NORTH 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS
TO BE WEAK IN CONJUNCTION WITH SLIGHTLY DRY LOW LEVELS PER INVERTED
V BUFR SOUNDINGS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT. FEEL A BAND OF SHOWERS
COULD FORM ALONG BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY BUT WHAT
RAIN COVERAGE THERE IS, SHOULD BE CONFINED TOWARDS TN/MS LINE AND
WILL ONLY CARRY MINIMAL 15-20% POPS.

ALL LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH
REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION BUT THE EC IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR INSTABILITY INDUCED SHOWERS
ALONG THE FAR SOUTH. YET, FEEL MOST OF REGION WILL BE DRY MONDAY AS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH CLOUDS CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS WILL SETTLE OVER REGION TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SLIGHT UPWARD MODIFICATION TO END OF WEEK ALLOWING FOR
COMFORTABLE LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH SOME MID 50S
POSSIBLE. WOULD BE MORE CONFIDENT IN MID TO LOW 50S IN THIS SET UP
BUT DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP OVERNIGHT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO FULL LOW
POTENTIAL. HIGHS WILL LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN AS A NICE REX BLOCK TO OUR EAST ALLOWS FOR
CONTINUAL LOW-LEVEL EAST/NE COOL AIR FETCH. /ALLEN/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  67  91  64 /  17   5   2   3
MERIDIAN      91  65  89  62 /  18   6   1   3
VICKSBURG     90  65  92  64 /  17   4   2   3
HATTIESBURG   92  68  91  65 /  26   6   3   2
NATCHEZ       89  67  90  66 /  23   5   5   3
GREENVILLE    90  67  91  66 /  12   2   4   6
GREENWOOD     90  66  91  65 /  15   3   4   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 190819
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
319 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY OUR REGION WILL SEE THE PATTERN CHANGE SOME AS
WE TRANSITION FROM A NW FLOW REGIME TO ONE OF S/WV RIDGING. THIS
RIDGING LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AS WE SHIFT TO A NW FLOW PATTERN AGAIN
FOR SUNDAY. TODAY LOOK FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AS THE AREA
WILL BE LOCATED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE S/WV TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO
SERVER TO PUSH SOUTHWARD MUCH DRIER UPPER LEVEL AIR. WHAT WAS
THOUGHT TO BE A PRECIP FREE DAY TODAY IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ISO SHOWERS AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOWER TO EXIT THE AREA. STILL...THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGING AND
DRYING ALOFT LOOK TO LIMIT ACTIVITY. WILL GO WITH 10-20% POPS AND
ISO SHRA WORDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT AND BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND REALLY LIMIT
CLOUDS AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.

AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO ON THE WARM SIDE AND ABV NORMS
FOR MID SEP. LOOK FOR HIGHS 88-92 TODAY AND SAT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE A
TAD LOWER THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND
SOME LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ALLOWING FOR MORE READINGS TO REACH THE MID
60S. /CME/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

OVERALL, THE LONG TERM CAN BE SUMMARIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THEN A NICE DOWNWARD TREND TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
READINGS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS REINFORCING COOL AIR INTRUSIONS
OCCUR OVER THE ARKLAMISS.

BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, A SOUTH-BOUND COOL FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ARKLAMISS FROM THE NORTH AS STRONGER TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES DRIVES STRONGER NW FLOW TOWARDS THE REGION. A
MOISTURE RIBBON LOOKS TO BE TRAPPED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
AND THIS WILL ACT TO INCREASE PWATS TO NEAR 1.5" SUNDAY AFTN FOR THE
NORTH 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS
TO BE WEAK IN CONJUNCTION WITH SLIGHTLY DRY LOW LEVELS PER INVERTED
V BUFR SOUNDINGS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT. FEEL A BAND OF SHOWERS
COULD FORM ALONG BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY BUT WHAT
RAIN COVERAGE THERE IS, SHOULD BE CONFINED TOWARDS TN/MS LINE AND
WILL ONLY CARRY MINIMAL 15-20% POPS.

ALL LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH
REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION BUT THE EC IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR INSTABILITY INDUCED SHOWERS
ALONG THE FAR SOUTH. YET, FEEL MOST OF REGION WILL BE DRY MONDAY AS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH CLOUDS CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS WILL SETTLE OVER REGION TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SLIGHT UPWARD MODIFICATION TO END OF WEEK ALLOWING FOR
COMFORTABLE LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH SOME MID 50S
POSSIBLE. WOULD BE MORE CONFIDENT IN MID TO LOW 50S IN THIS SET UP
BUT DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP OVERNIGHT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO FULL LOW
POTENTIAL. HIGHS WILL LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN AS A NICE REX BLOCK TO OUR EAST ALLOWS FOR
CONTINUAL LOW-LEVEL EAST/NE COOL AIR FETCH. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...LOOK FOR PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT A FEW
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL DECK EXITS AND ALLOWS FOR
SOME BETTER COOLING BETWEEN 10-12Z. ANY RESTRICTED CONDITIONS LOOK
TO IMPROVE BY 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
/CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  67  91  64 /  12   5   2   3
MERIDIAN      91  65  89  62 /  13   6   1   3
VICKSBURG     90  65  92  64 /  12   4   2   3
HATTIESBURG   92  68  91  65 /  21   6   3   2
NATCHEZ       89  67  90  66 /  18   5   5   3
GREENVILLE    90  67  91  66 /   7   2   4   6
GREENWOOD     90  66  91  65 /  10   3   4   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/ALLEN/







000
FXUS64 KJAN 190819
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
319 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY OUR REGION WILL SEE THE PATTERN CHANGE SOME AS
WE TRANSITION FROM A NW FLOW REGIME TO ONE OF S/WV RIDGING. THIS
RIDGING LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AS WE SHIFT TO A NW FLOW PATTERN AGAIN
FOR SUNDAY. TODAY LOOK FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AS THE AREA
WILL BE LOCATED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE S/WV TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO
SERVER TO PUSH SOUTHWARD MUCH DRIER UPPER LEVEL AIR. WHAT WAS
THOUGHT TO BE A PRECIP FREE DAY TODAY IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ISO SHOWERS AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOWER TO EXIT THE AREA. STILL...THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGING AND
DRYING ALOFT LOOK TO LIMIT ACTIVITY. WILL GO WITH 10-20% POPS AND
ISO SHRA WORDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT AND BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND REALLY LIMIT
CLOUDS AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.

AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO ON THE WARM SIDE AND ABV NORMS
FOR MID SEP. LOOK FOR HIGHS 88-92 TODAY AND SAT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE A
TAD LOWER THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND
SOME LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR ALLOWING FOR MORE READINGS TO REACH THE MID
60S. /CME/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

OVERALL, THE LONG TERM CAN BE SUMMARIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THEN A NICE DOWNWARD TREND TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
READINGS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS REINFORCING COOL AIR INTRUSIONS
OCCUR OVER THE ARKLAMISS.

BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, A SOUTH-BOUND COOL FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ARKLAMISS FROM THE NORTH AS STRONGER TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES DRIVES STRONGER NW FLOW TOWARDS THE REGION. A
MOISTURE RIBBON LOOKS TO BE TRAPPED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
AND THIS WILL ACT TO INCREASE PWATS TO NEAR 1.5" SUNDAY AFTN FOR THE
NORTH 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS
TO BE WEAK IN CONJUNCTION WITH SLIGHTLY DRY LOW LEVELS PER INVERTED
V BUFR SOUNDINGS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT. FEEL A BAND OF SHOWERS
COULD FORM ALONG BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY BUT WHAT
RAIN COVERAGE THERE IS, SHOULD BE CONFINED TOWARDS TN/MS LINE AND
WILL ONLY CARRY MINIMAL 15-20% POPS.

ALL LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH
REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION BUT THE EC IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR INSTABILITY INDUCED SHOWERS
ALONG THE FAR SOUTH. YET, FEEL MOST OF REGION WILL BE DRY MONDAY AS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH CLOUDS CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS WILL SETTLE OVER REGION TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SLIGHT UPWARD MODIFICATION TO END OF WEEK ALLOWING FOR
COMFORTABLE LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH SOME MID 50S
POSSIBLE. WOULD BE MORE CONFIDENT IN MID TO LOW 50S IN THIS SET UP
BUT DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP OVERNIGHT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MIXING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO FULL LOW
POTENTIAL. HIGHS WILL LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN AS A NICE REX BLOCK TO OUR EAST ALLOWS FOR
CONTINUAL LOW-LEVEL EAST/NE COOL AIR FETCH. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...LOOK FOR PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT A FEW
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL DECK EXITS AND ALLOWS FOR
SOME BETTER COOLING BETWEEN 10-12Z. ANY RESTRICTED CONDITIONS LOOK
TO IMPROVE BY 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
/CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  67  91  64 /  12   5   2   3
MERIDIAN      91  65  89  62 /  13   6   1   3
VICKSBURG     90  65  92  64 /  12   4   2   3
HATTIESBURG   92  68  91  65 /  21   6   3   2
NATCHEZ       89  67  90  66 /  18   5   5   3
GREENVILLE    90  67  91  66 /   7   2   4   6
GREENWOOD     90  66  91  65 /  10   3   4   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/ALLEN/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 190200 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
900 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THIS EVENING`S ACTIVITY...INITIALLY SPURRED BY A COMBINATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE DELTA
EARLIER...EVOLVED INTO OUTFLOWS UPON OUTFLOWS INTERACTING WITH YET
MORE OUTFLOWS. THESE STORMS ARE NOW WINDING DOWN AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DO SO PER THE HI-RES MODELS AND THE CURRENT TREND. SOME LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA STILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO MEET UP WITH THE SEA BREEZE-FORCED STORMS MOVING NORTH
INTO MS FROM LA AT THIS TIME. SEVERE STORMS FROM THIS INTERACTION ARE
NOT LIKELY BUT COULD KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM WANING TOO SOON.
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY THIN OUT AS THE NIGHT GOES WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING HOURS. FIXED SOME OF THE
HOURLY TEMPS ALONG WITH POPS BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR THE UPDATE. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA ARE DIMINISHING OVER THE AREA WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT NIGHTTIME COOLING AND
FOG PRODUCTION...BUT STILL EXPECT MVFR CATEGORY FOG TO BE PREVALENT
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. EXPECT DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...UPPER TROUGHING PREVAILS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE DELTA
AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE BOUNDARY IS THE FOCUS OF SOME AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH INCREASED STABILITY AND FLOW ALOFT
SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. EXPECT THE STORMS
TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BOUNDARY...
BUT MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
ALSO...BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
THIS COMBINED WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PAST
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL ATTACH THE APPLICABLE PORTIONS OF THE
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW./15/

PREVIOUS LONG TERM...BY SUNDAY, A RIBBON OF 1.5-1.6" PWATS WILL
PIVOT INTO NW/W AREAS AHEAD OF A FRONT AIDED BY STRONGER NW FLOW AS
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH IN CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A FEW
WEAKLY INSTABILITY INDUCED SHOWERS.

THE NEW EC IS MORE BULLISH (AND MORE IN LINE WITH GFS) THEN PREVIOUS
RUN ON STRONGER SOUTHWARD FRONTAL MOMENTUM THROUGH REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY, MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LACKING AND WEAK LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE IN
PLAY. YET, FEEL SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO DEVELOP AS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. BEST CONCENTRATION OF RAIN
WITH CURRENT THINKING OF TIMING WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER MONDAY AFTN. AT LEAST LOWER 50F
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INFILTRATE THROUGH MOST OF REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY ALONG WITH SOME CAA IN THE 925/850MB LAYERS. THESE
COMPONENTS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TOWARDS NORMALS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT MODERATION WEDNESDAY AS FRONT MAY WAFFLE BACK NORTH ALONG FAR
SOUTH AREAS. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  91  66  91 /  19   1   1   5
MERIDIAN      64  92  64  90 /  17   1   1   4
VICKSBURG     65  91  64  91 /  17   2   1   5
HATTIESBURG   68  92  68  91 /  33   8   4   3
NATCHEZ       67  89  67  90 /  32   7   4   3
GREENVILLE    67  90  67  92 /  24   1   1   6
GREENWOOD     66  91  66  92 /  28   1   1   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 190200 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
900 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THIS EVENING`S ACTIVITY...INITIALLY SPURRED BY A COMBINATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE DELTA
EARLIER...EVOLVED INTO OUTFLOWS UPON OUTFLOWS INTERACTING WITH YET
MORE OUTFLOWS. THESE STORMS ARE NOW WINDING DOWN AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DO SO PER THE HI-RES MODELS AND THE CURRENT TREND. SOME LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA STILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO MEET UP WITH THE SEA BREEZE-FORCED STORMS MOVING NORTH
INTO MS FROM LA AT THIS TIME. SEVERE STORMS FROM THIS INTERACTION ARE
NOT LIKELY BUT COULD KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM WANING TOO SOON.
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY THIN OUT AS THE NIGHT GOES WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING HOURS. FIXED SOME OF THE
HOURLY TEMPS ALONG WITH POPS BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR THE UPDATE. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA ARE DIMINISHING OVER THE AREA WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT NIGHTTIME COOLING AND
FOG PRODUCTION...BUT STILL EXPECT MVFR CATEGORY FOG TO BE PREVALENT
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. EXPECT DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...UPPER TROUGHING PREVAILS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE DELTA
AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE BOUNDARY IS THE FOCUS OF SOME AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH INCREASED STABILITY AND FLOW ALOFT
SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. EXPECT THE STORMS
TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BOUNDARY...
BUT MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
ALSO...BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
THIS COMBINED WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PAST
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL ATTACH THE APPLICABLE PORTIONS OF THE
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW./15/

PREVIOUS LONG TERM...BY SUNDAY, A RIBBON OF 1.5-1.6" PWATS WILL
PIVOT INTO NW/W AREAS AHEAD OF A FRONT AIDED BY STRONGER NW FLOW AS
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH IN CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A FEW
WEAKLY INSTABILITY INDUCED SHOWERS.

THE NEW EC IS MORE BULLISH (AND MORE IN LINE WITH GFS) THEN PREVIOUS
RUN ON STRONGER SOUTHWARD FRONTAL MOMENTUM THROUGH REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY, MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LACKING AND WEAK LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE IN
PLAY. YET, FEEL SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO DEVELOP AS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. BEST CONCENTRATION OF RAIN
WITH CURRENT THINKING OF TIMING WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER MONDAY AFTN. AT LEAST LOWER 50F
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INFILTRATE THROUGH MOST OF REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY ALONG WITH SOME CAA IN THE 925/850MB LAYERS. THESE
COMPONENTS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TOWARDS NORMALS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT MODERATION WEDNESDAY AS FRONT MAY WAFFLE BACK NORTH ALONG FAR
SOUTH AREAS. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  91  66  91 /  19   1   1   5
MERIDIAN      64  92  64  90 /  17   1   1   4
VICKSBURG     65  91  64  91 /  17   2   1   5
HATTIESBURG   68  92  68  91 /  33   8   4   3
NATCHEZ       67  89  67  90 /  32   7   4   3
GREENVILLE    67  90  67  92 /  24   1   1   6
GREENWOOD     66  91  66  92 /  28   1   1   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KJAN 181937
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
237 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER TROUGHING PREVAILS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE DELTA
AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE BOUNDARY IS THE FOCUS OF SOME AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH INCREASED STABILITY AND FLOW ALOFT
SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. EXPECT THE STORMS
TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BOUNDARY...
BUT MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
ALSO...BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
THIS COMBINED WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PAST
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL ATTACH THE APPLICABLE PORTIONS OF THE
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW./15/

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...BY SUNDAY, A RIBBON OF 1.5-1.6" PWATS WILL
PIVOT INTO NW/W AREAS AHEAD OF A FRONT AIDED BY STRONGER NW FLOW AS
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH IN CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A FEW
WEAKLY INSTABILITY INDUCED SHOWERS.

THE NEW EC IS MORE BULLISH (AND MORE IN LINE WITH GFS) THEN PREVIOUS
RUN ON STRONGER SOUTHWARD FRONTAL MOMENTUM THROUGH REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY, MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LACKING AND WEAK LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE IN
PLAY. YET, FEEL SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO DEVELOP AS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. BEST CONCENTRATION OF RAIN
WITH CURRENT THINKING OF TIMING WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER MONDAY AFTN. AT LEAST LOWER 50F
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INFILTRATE THROUGH MOST OF REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY ALONG WITH SOME CAA IN THE 925/850MB LAYERS. THESE
COMPONENTS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TOWARDS NORMALS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT MODERATION WEDNESDAY AS FRONT MAY WAFFLE BACK NORTH ALONG FAR
SOUTH AREAS. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...FR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR/IFR DUE TO TSRA. SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE CURRENTLY NEAR KGLH/KGWO BETWEEN 18/19-00Z AND WILL MOVE NEAR
KJAN/KHKS AT 18/22-01Z. EXPECT SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDS TONIGHT AT
KMEI/KHBG BETWEEN 19/08-14Z AND KGLH/KGWO BETWEEN 19/10-14Z BEFORE
CLEARING AFTER 19/15Z. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  67  91  66 /  40  20   1   1
MERIDIAN      90  64  92  64 /  31  15   1   1
VICKSBURG     90  65  91  64 /  43  16   2   1
HATTIESBURG   92  68  92  68 /  42  34   8   4
NATCHEZ       88  67  89  67 /  48  33   7   4
GREENVILLE    88  67  90  67 /  50  25   1   1
GREENWOOD     88  66  91  66 /  50  29   1   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

15/DC







000
FXUS64 KJAN 181937
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
237 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER TROUGHING PREVAILS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE DELTA
AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE BOUNDARY IS THE FOCUS OF SOME AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH INCREASED STABILITY AND FLOW ALOFT
SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. EXPECT THE STORMS
TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BOUNDARY...
BUT MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
ALSO...BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
THIS COMBINED WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL MAKE FOR A NICE DAY UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PAST
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL ATTACH THE APPLICABLE PORTIONS OF THE
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW./15/

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...BY SUNDAY, A RIBBON OF 1.5-1.6" PWATS WILL
PIVOT INTO NW/W AREAS AHEAD OF A FRONT AIDED BY STRONGER NW FLOW AS
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH IN CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A FEW
WEAKLY INSTABILITY INDUCED SHOWERS.

THE NEW EC IS MORE BULLISH (AND MORE IN LINE WITH GFS) THEN PREVIOUS
RUN ON STRONGER SOUTHWARD FRONTAL MOMENTUM THROUGH REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY, MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LACKING AND WEAK LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE IN
PLAY. YET, FEEL SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO DEVELOP AS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. BEST CONCENTRATION OF RAIN
WITH CURRENT THINKING OF TIMING WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER MONDAY AFTN. AT LEAST LOWER 50F
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INFILTRATE THROUGH MOST OF REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY ALONG WITH SOME CAA IN THE 925/850MB LAYERS. THESE
COMPONENTS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TOWARDS NORMALS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT MODERATION WEDNESDAY AS FRONT MAY WAFFLE BACK NORTH ALONG FAR
SOUTH AREAS. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...FR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR/IFR DUE TO TSRA. SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE CURRENTLY NEAR KGLH/KGWO BETWEEN 18/19-00Z AND WILL MOVE NEAR
KJAN/KHKS AT 18/22-01Z. EXPECT SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDS TONIGHT AT
KMEI/KHBG BETWEEN 19/08-14Z AND KGLH/KGWO BETWEEN 19/10-14Z BEFORE
CLEARING AFTER 19/15Z. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  67  91  66 /  40  20   1   1
MERIDIAN      90  64  92  64 /  31  15   1   1
VICKSBURG     90  65  91  64 /  43  16   2   1
HATTIESBURG   92  68  92  68 /  42  34   8   4
NATCHEZ       88  67  89  67 /  48  33   7   4
GREENVILLE    88  67  90  67 /  50  25   1   1
GREENWOOD     88  66  91  66 /  50  29   1   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

15/DC






000
FXUS64 KJAN 181519 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1019 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWING SOME BUBBLING IN THE CU FIELD
OVER NORTH MS AT THE MOMENT WHILE AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING CONVECTION
INITIATING OVER AR. NEW NAM...HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS ARE INDICATING A
GOOD SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO WITH CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE DELTA
REGION TO THE SW OF A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER NE MS SEEMS
REASONABLE CONSIDERING LI VALUES AROUND -8 AND VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND
27. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASED WINDS
ALOFT. THIS MORNINGS UA SOUNDING WAS SHOWING A DEEP LAYER OF 50+
KNOTS ABOVE 300 MB. THIS VENTING SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS
TO BECOME MORE ROBUST...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG
STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.

BASED ON EXPECTED COVERAGE...INCREASED POPS IN THE GRIDS./26/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. VCTS IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18/19-00Z AT KGLH/KGWO AND
18/22-01Z AT KJAN/KHKS. EXPECT SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDS TONIGHT AT
KGLH/KGWO/KHBG BETWEEN 19/10-14Z BEFORE CLEARING AFTER 19/15Z. /DC/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...THERE WILL EXIST A COUPLE FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR
TODAY INTO THIS EVE. FIRST WILL BE WITH TEMPS AND WHAT EFFECTS OF
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL PLAY ON POSSIBLY KEEPING THEM LOWER THAN
FORECAST. THE OTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH CONVECTION AN HOW MUCH
COVERAGE WILL EXIST. ITS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
RESULT...MAINLY BECAUSE FORECAST GUID HAS DIFFERENCES. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE MORE BEARISH ON PRECIP CHANCES TODAY WHILE A HANDFUL OF
THE HI-RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SHOW MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF
STORMS. ITS TOUGH WHEN MOS GUID IS OFFERING 10-20% AND OTHER RAW
OUTPUT MAKES YOU THINK MORE LIKE 50-60%. ADDITIONALLY...ITS HARD TO
NOT ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS WHICH HAVE SUPPORTED THE SITUATION
WHERE PRECIP HAS BEEN HARDER TO COME BY. OVERALL...THERE WILL BE A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE CWA WHICH SHOULD HELP
PROVIDE SOME FOCUS...BUT THEN AGAIN...FLOW IN THE LOWER 2-3KM IS
QUITE WEAK AND ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE VERY MARGINAL.
THERE WILL BE A DECENT S/WV MOVING SE AND THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY
KICKING OFF STORMS TO OUR NW. BASED ON ALL THIS...HAVE INCREASED
POPS SOME WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH.

BASED OFF CERTAIN THERMO PARAMETERS ALONG WITH INCREASED DEEP LAYER
FLOW...A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NW HALF
LATER TODAY. COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS (ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
S/WV) WILL OFFER STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAN WHAT OUR AREA HAS SEEN
RECENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...SFC MOISTURE (DEWPTS) WILL LIKELY HOLD A
BIT HIGHER ACROSS PARTS OF THE W/NW WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHER
INSTABILITY NEAR 2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE.

AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...HAVE GONE WITH 87-90 DEGREES WITH A DOWNWARD
TWEAK OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH. IF CLOUD COVER LIMITS INSOLATION
MORE...THEN READINGS COULD FALL SHORT OF THOSE VALUES BY 3-5
DEGREES.

ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 9-10 PM THIS EVE. AN
OVERALL MUCH DRIER ATMS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA
IN THE WAKE OF THE S/WV. THIS WILL SUPPORT NEAR ZERO POPS FRI-FRI
NGT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS WELL. /CME/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A COOL
DOWN TOWARD NORMAL READINGS LATE MONDAY INTO MID WEEK AS A COOL AND
SLIGHTLY MOISTURE STARVED FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.

OVERALL, LONG TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SHORT LIVED
RIDGING SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO MORE ROBUST TROUGHING DIVING OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT
A DRY SATURDAY AS RESIDUAL DRIER AIRMASS /PWATS 1.2"/ AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE/H5 RIDGE SUPPRESS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, BY SUNDAY, A
RIBBON OF 1.5-1.6" PWATS WILL PIVOT INTO NW/W AREAS AHEAD OF A FRONT
AIDED BY STRONGER NW FLOW AS EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A FEW WEAKLY INSTABILITY INDUCED SHOWERS.

THE NEW EC IS MORE BULLISH (AND MORE IN LINE WITH GFS) THEN PREVIOUS
RUN ON STRONGER SOUTHWARD FRONTAL MOMENTUM THROUGH REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY, MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LACKING AND WEAK LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE IN
PLAY. YET, FEEL SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO DEVELOP AS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. BEST CONCENTRATION OF RAIN
WITH CURRENT THINKING OF TIMING WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER MONDAY AFTN. AT LEAST LOWER 50F
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INFILTRATE THROUGH MOST OF REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY ALONG WITH SOME CAA IN THE 925/850MB LAYERS. THESE
COMPONENTS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TOWARDS NORMALS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT MODERATION WEDNESDAY AS FRONT MAY WAFFLE BACK NORTH ALONG FAR
SOUTH AREAS. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  66  91  66 /  40  20   2   1
MERIDIAN      90  64  90  64 /  31  12   4   1
VICKSBURG     90  64  91  65 /  43  19   2   1
HATTIESBURG   92  67  92  67 /  42  29   4   4
NATCHEZ       88  66  89  66 /  48  27   3   3
GREENVILLE    88  66  89  66 /  50   5   1   3
GREENWOOD     88  64  90  65 /  50   6   1   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 181519 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1019 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWING SOME BUBBLING IN THE CU FIELD
OVER NORTH MS AT THE MOMENT WHILE AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING CONVECTION
INITIATING OVER AR. NEW NAM...HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS ARE INDICATING A
GOOD SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO WITH CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE DELTA
REGION TO THE SW OF A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER NE MS SEEMS
REASONABLE CONSIDERING LI VALUES AROUND -8 AND VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND
27. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASED WINDS
ALOFT. THIS MORNINGS UA SOUNDING WAS SHOWING A DEEP LAYER OF 50+
KNOTS ABOVE 300 MB. THIS VENTING SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS
TO BECOME MORE ROBUST...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG
STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH.

BASED ON EXPECTED COVERAGE...INCREASED POPS IN THE GRIDS./26/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. VCTS IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18/19-00Z AT KGLH/KGWO AND
18/22-01Z AT KJAN/KHKS. EXPECT SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDS TONIGHT AT
KGLH/KGWO/KHBG BETWEEN 19/10-14Z BEFORE CLEARING AFTER 19/15Z. /DC/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...THERE WILL EXIST A COUPLE FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR
TODAY INTO THIS EVE. FIRST WILL BE WITH TEMPS AND WHAT EFFECTS OF
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL PLAY ON POSSIBLY KEEPING THEM LOWER THAN
FORECAST. THE OTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH CONVECTION AN HOW MUCH
COVERAGE WILL EXIST. ITS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
RESULT...MAINLY BECAUSE FORECAST GUID HAS DIFFERENCES. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE MORE BEARISH ON PRECIP CHANCES TODAY WHILE A HANDFUL OF
THE HI-RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SHOW MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF
STORMS. ITS TOUGH WHEN MOS GUID IS OFFERING 10-20% AND OTHER RAW
OUTPUT MAKES YOU THINK MORE LIKE 50-60%. ADDITIONALLY...ITS HARD TO
NOT ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS WHICH HAVE SUPPORTED THE SITUATION
WHERE PRECIP HAS BEEN HARDER TO COME BY. OVERALL...THERE WILL BE A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE CWA WHICH SHOULD HELP
PROVIDE SOME FOCUS...BUT THEN AGAIN...FLOW IN THE LOWER 2-3KM IS
QUITE WEAK AND ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE VERY MARGINAL.
THERE WILL BE A DECENT S/WV MOVING SE AND THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY
KICKING OFF STORMS TO OUR NW. BASED ON ALL THIS...HAVE INCREASED
POPS SOME WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH.

BASED OFF CERTAIN THERMO PARAMETERS ALONG WITH INCREASED DEEP LAYER
FLOW...A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NW HALF
LATER TODAY. COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS (ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
S/WV) WILL OFFER STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAN WHAT OUR AREA HAS SEEN
RECENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...SFC MOISTURE (DEWPTS) WILL LIKELY HOLD A
BIT HIGHER ACROSS PARTS OF THE W/NW WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHER
INSTABILITY NEAR 2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE.

AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...HAVE GONE WITH 87-90 DEGREES WITH A DOWNWARD
TWEAK OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH. IF CLOUD COVER LIMITS INSOLATION
MORE...THEN READINGS COULD FALL SHORT OF THOSE VALUES BY 3-5
DEGREES.

ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 9-10 PM THIS EVE. AN
OVERALL MUCH DRIER ATMS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA
IN THE WAKE OF THE S/WV. THIS WILL SUPPORT NEAR ZERO POPS FRI-FRI
NGT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS WELL. /CME/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A COOL
DOWN TOWARD NORMAL READINGS LATE MONDAY INTO MID WEEK AS A COOL AND
SLIGHTLY MOISTURE STARVED FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.

OVERALL, LONG TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SHORT LIVED
RIDGING SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO MORE ROBUST TROUGHING DIVING OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT
A DRY SATURDAY AS RESIDUAL DRIER AIRMASS /PWATS 1.2"/ AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE/H5 RIDGE SUPPRESS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, BY SUNDAY, A
RIBBON OF 1.5-1.6" PWATS WILL PIVOT INTO NW/W AREAS AHEAD OF A FRONT
AIDED BY STRONGER NW FLOW AS EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A FEW WEAKLY INSTABILITY INDUCED SHOWERS.

THE NEW EC IS MORE BULLISH (AND MORE IN LINE WITH GFS) THEN PREVIOUS
RUN ON STRONGER SOUTHWARD FRONTAL MOMENTUM THROUGH REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY, MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LACKING AND WEAK LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE IN
PLAY. YET, FEEL SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO DEVELOP AS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. BEST CONCENTRATION OF RAIN
WITH CURRENT THINKING OF TIMING WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER MONDAY AFTN. AT LEAST LOWER 50F
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INFILTRATE THROUGH MOST OF REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY ALONG WITH SOME CAA IN THE 925/850MB LAYERS. THESE
COMPONENTS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TOWARDS NORMALS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT MODERATION WEDNESDAY AS FRONT MAY WAFFLE BACK NORTH ALONG FAR
SOUTH AREAS. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  66  91  66 /  40  20   2   1
MERIDIAN      90  64  90  64 /  31  12   4   1
VICKSBURG     90  64  91  65 /  43  19   2   1
HATTIESBURG   92  67  92  67 /  42  29   4   4
NATCHEZ       88  66  89  66 /  48  27   3   3
GREENVILLE    88  66  89  66 /  50   5   1   3
GREENWOOD     88  64  90  65 /  50   6   1   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 180836
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
336 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...THERE WILL EXIST A COUPLE FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR
TODAY INTO THIS EVE. FIRST WILL BE WITH TEMPS AND WHAT EFFECTS OF
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL PLAY ON POSSIBLY KEEPING THEM LOWER THAN
FORECAST. THE OTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH CONVECTION AN HOW MUCH
COVERAGE WILL EXIST. ITS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS A
RESULT...MAINLY BECAUSE FORECAST GUID HAS DIFFERENCES. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE MORE BEARISH ON PRECIP CHANCES TODAY WHILE A HANDFUL OF
THE HI-RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SHOW MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF
STORMS. ITS TOUGH WHEN MOS GUID IS OFFERING 10-20% AND OTHER RAW
OUTPUT MAKES YOU THINK MORE LIKE 50-60%. ADDITIONALLY...ITS HARD TO
NOT ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS WHICH HAVE SUPPORTED THE SITUATION
WHERE PRECIP HAS BEEN HARDER TO COME BY. OVERALL...THERE WILL BE A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE CWA WHICH SHOULD HELP
PROVIDE SOME FOCUS...BUT THEN AGAIN...FLOW IN THE LOWER 2-3KM IS
QUITE WEAK AND ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE VERY MARGINAL.
THERE WILL BE A DECENT S/WV MOVING SE AND THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY
KICKING OFF STORMS TO OUR NW. BASED ON ALL THIS...HAVE INCREASED
POPS SOME WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH.

BASED OFF CERTAIN THERMO PARAMETERS ALONG WITH INCREASED DEEP LAYER
FLOW...A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NW HALF
LATER TODAY. COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS (ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
S/WV) WILL OFFER STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAN WHAT OUR AREA HAS SEEN
RECENTLY. ADDITIONALLY...SFC MOISTURE (DEWPTS) WILL LIKELY HOLD A
BIT HIGHER ACROSS PARTS OF THE W/NW WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHER
INSTABILITY NEAR 2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE.

AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...HAVE GONE WITH 87-90 DEGREES WITH A DOWNWARD
TWEAK OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH. IF CLOUD COVER LIMITS INSOLATION
MORE...THEN READINGS COULD FALL SHORT OF THOSE VALUES BY 3-5
DEGREES.

ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 9-10 PM THIS EVE. AN
OVERALL MUCH DRIER ATMS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA
IN THE WAKE OF THE S/WV. THIS WILL SUPPORT NEAR ZERO POPS FRI-FRI
NGT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS WELL. /CME/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A COOL
DOWN TOWARD NORMAL READINGS LATE MONDAY INTO MID WEEK AS A COOL AND
SLIGHTLY MOISTURE STARVED FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.

OVERALL, LONG TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SHORT LIVED
RIDGING SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO MORE ROBUST TROUGHING DIVING OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT
A DRY SATURDAY AS RESIDUAL DRIER AIRMASS /PWATS 1.2"/ AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE/H5 RIDGE SUPPRESS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, BY SUNDAY, A
RIBBON OF 1.5-1.6" PWATS WILL PIVOT INTO NW/W AREAS AHEAD OF A FRONT
AIDED BY STRONGER NW FLOW AS EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A FEW WEAKLY INSTABILITY INDUCED SHOWERS.

THE NEW EC IS MORE BULLISH (AND MORE IN LINE WITH GFS) THEN PREVIOUS
RUN ON STRONGER SOUTHWARD FRONTAL MOMENTUM THROUGH REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY, MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LACKING AND WEAK LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE IN
PLAY. YET, FEEL SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO DEVELOP AS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. BEST CONCENTRATION OF RAIN
WITH CURRENT THINKING OF TIMING WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER MONDAY AFTN. AT LEAST LOWER 50F
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INFILTRATE THROUGH MOST OF REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY ALONG WITH SOME CAA IN THE 925/850MB LAYERS. THESE
COMPONENTS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TOWARDS NORMALS
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHT MODERATION WEDNESDAY AS FRONT MAY WAFFLE BACK NORTH ALONG FAR
SOUTH AREAS. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE
FORECAST. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IF ANY SITE IS IMPACTED BY
CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION PRECIP
AT ALL SITES. HOWEVER...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO INCLUDE A VCTS
FOR GLH/GWO. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  66  91  66 /  20  20   2   1
MERIDIAN      90  64  90  64 /  11  12   4   1
VICKSBURG     90  64  91  65 /  23  19   2   1
HATTIESBURG   92  67  92  67 /  22  29   4   4
NATCHEZ       88  66  89  66 /  28  27   3   3
GREENVILLE    88  66  89  66 /  30   5   1   3
GREENWOOD     88  64  90  65 /  30   6   1   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/ALLEN/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 180127 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
827 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...MOST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON
HAS DIED OUT SAVE FOR TINY SHOWERS NORTH OF PRENTISS AND NEAR
EASTABUCHIE. SHOWERS WERE RATHER SPARSE TODAY THANKS TO A LOBE OF
DRIER AIR EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN
THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT AND ALSO WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE DELTA
AROUND DAYBREAK AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...SO WE WILL LEAVE IN MINOR RAIN CHANCES EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING IN THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE...POPS WILL BE REMOVED FOR THIS
EVENING. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...BUT SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
DAY BREAK THURSDAY MORNING. THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS
THE AREA AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. /17/

&&


.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
SHORT TERM...A SECOND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OFF TO OUR WEST TOMORROW
WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND COULD TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION IN OUR
MOST WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. ANY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THAT DOES
FORM WILL BEGIN TO WANE WITH SUNSET TOMORROW.

AFTER THURSDAY`S DAYTIME ACTIVITY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD UP INTO THE SOUTH AGAIN AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY
OUT. POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WHILE TEMPS GO BACK UP INTO THE LOW
90S WIDESPREAD FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. /10/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT DO OFFER A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT. BEFORE WE GET TO NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR THE FRI-SAT PERIOD BEING PRECIP FREE. DURING THIS
TIME THE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO ONE WITH A S/WV RIDGE WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A BACKDOOR SFC FRONT TO MOVE IN FROM THE NE/E. THIS
WILL PROVIDE DRIER LOW LEVEL TO MOVE ALONG WITH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR
TO BUILD IN AS WELL.

TO START NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A E CONUS TROUGH TAKING SHAPE. WHAT IS MORE
IN PLAY WITH THE FORECAST NOW IS HOW BOTH THE GFS/EURO HAVE THE
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE S PLAINS AND
INTO THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION. THE EURO IS MORE BULLISH WITH THIS
SOLUTION AND HAS BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR MON/MON NGT. THE GFS
HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT SEEMS TO USE UP THE MOISTURE TOO QUICKLY
OVER THE PLAINS...THUS LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL WHEN MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION. WILL FOLLOW THE EURO SOLUTION. FOR TUE INTO
WED...THE SFC FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA AND ALLOW FOR
COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS TO BE IN PLACE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST INTO EARLY MON
BEFORE WE SHIFT TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS FOR TUE. GUID TEMPS WERE
OK...BUT SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE. FIRST...DUE TO SOME
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY...OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS/EURO MAX TEMPS. WITH A WETTER/MORE CLOUDY SOLUTION EXPECTED ON
MON...FOLLOWED MORE OF THE EURO TEMPS WITH A TREND BACK TO THE GFS
BY WED. /CME/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/17/10/CME






000
FXUS64 KJAN 180127 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
827 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...MOST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON
HAS DIED OUT SAVE FOR TINY SHOWERS NORTH OF PRENTISS AND NEAR
EASTABUCHIE. SHOWERS WERE RATHER SPARSE TODAY THANKS TO A LOBE OF
DRIER AIR EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN
THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT AND ALSO WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE DELTA
AROUND DAYBREAK AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...SO WE WILL LEAVE IN MINOR RAIN CHANCES EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING IN THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE...POPS WILL BE REMOVED FOR THIS
EVENING. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...BUT SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
DAY BREAK THURSDAY MORNING. THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS
THE AREA AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. /17/

&&


.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
SHORT TERM...A SECOND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OFF TO OUR WEST TOMORROW
WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND COULD TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION IN OUR
MOST WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. ANY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THAT DOES
FORM WILL BEGIN TO WANE WITH SUNSET TOMORROW.

AFTER THURSDAY`S DAYTIME ACTIVITY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD UP INTO THE SOUTH AGAIN AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY
OUT. POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WHILE TEMPS GO BACK UP INTO THE LOW
90S WIDESPREAD FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. /10/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT DO OFFER A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT. BEFORE WE GET TO NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR THE FRI-SAT PERIOD BEING PRECIP FREE. DURING THIS
TIME THE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO ONE WITH A S/WV RIDGE WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A BACKDOOR SFC FRONT TO MOVE IN FROM THE NE/E. THIS
WILL PROVIDE DRIER LOW LEVEL TO MOVE ALONG WITH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR
TO BUILD IN AS WELL.

TO START NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A E CONUS TROUGH TAKING SHAPE. WHAT IS MORE
IN PLAY WITH THE FORECAST NOW IS HOW BOTH THE GFS/EURO HAVE THE
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE S PLAINS AND
INTO THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION. THE EURO IS MORE BULLISH WITH THIS
SOLUTION AND HAS BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR MON/MON NGT. THE GFS
HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT SEEMS TO USE UP THE MOISTURE TOO QUICKLY
OVER THE PLAINS...THUS LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL WHEN MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION. WILL FOLLOW THE EURO SOLUTION. FOR TUE INTO
WED...THE SFC FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA AND ALLOW FOR
COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS TO BE IN PLACE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST INTO EARLY MON
BEFORE WE SHIFT TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS FOR TUE. GUID TEMPS WERE
OK...BUT SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE. FIRST...DUE TO SOME
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY...OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS/EURO MAX TEMPS. WITH A WETTER/MORE CLOUDY SOLUTION EXPECTED ON
MON...FOLLOWED MORE OF THE EURO TEMPS WITH A TREND BACK TO THE GFS
BY WED. /CME/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/17/10/CME







000
FXUS64 KJAN 172017
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
317 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE FRONT NOW HANGS JUST TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION NOW
HAS HALTED WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE DEEP SOUTH THIS EVENING. TRIGGERED BY AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EARLIER THIS MORNING...THIS COMPLEX WILL
APPROACH THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE DRY
AIR MASS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE THE CLOSER IT
GETS TO OUR CWA. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON OUR
AREA BUT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS STILL EXIST IN THE DELTA FOR
TOMORROW. A SECOND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OFF TO OUR WEST TOMORROW
WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND COULD TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION IN OUR
MOST WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. ANY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THAT DOES
FORM WILL BEGIN TO WANE WITH SUNSET TOMORROW.

AFTER THURSDAY`S DAYTIME ACTIVITY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD UP INTO THE SOUTH AGAIN AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY
OUT. POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WHILE TEMPS GO BACK UP INTO THE LOW
90S WIDESPREAD FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. /10/

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT DO OFFER A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT.
BEFORE WE GET TO NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE FRI-SAT
PERIOD BEING PRECIP FREE. DURING THIS TIME THE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL
SHIFT TO ONE WITH A S/WV RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A BACKDOOR SFC
FRONT TO MOVE IN FROM THE NE/E. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRIER LOW LEVEL TO
MOVE ALONG WITH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR TO BUILD IN AS WELL.

TO START NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A E CONUS TROUGH TAKING SHAPE. WHAT IS MORE
IN PLAY WITH THE FORECAST NOW IS HOW BOTH THE GFS/EURO HAVE THE
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE S PLAINS AND
INTO THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION. THE EURO IS MORE BULLISH WITH THIS
SOLUTION AND HAS BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR MON/MON NGT. THE GFS
HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT SEEMS TO USE UP THE MOISTURE TOO QUICKLY
OVER THE PLAINS...THUS LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL WHEN MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION. WILL FOLLOW THE EURO SOLUTION. FOR TUE INTO
WED...THE SFC FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA AND ALLOW FOR
COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS TO BE IN PLACE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST INTO EARLY MON
BEFORE WE SHIFT TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS FOR TUE. GUID TEMPS WERE
OK...BUT SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE. FIRST...DUE TO SOME
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY...OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS/EURO MAX TEMPS. WITH A WETTER/MORE CLOUDY SOLUTION EXPECTED ON
MON...FOLLOWED MORE OF THE EURO TEMPS WITH A TREND BACK TO THE GFS
BY WED. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...BUT SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
DAY BREAK THURSDAY MORNING. THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS
THE AREA AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  90  64  91 /   8  18  10   4
MERIDIAN      65  89  63  90 /   6  11  11   4
VICKSBURG     66  91  62  91 /   7  20   9   4
HATTIESBURG   68  90  68  91 /   6  26  17   8
NATCHEZ       69  88  66  88 /   9  29  13   5
GREENVILLE    68  89  66  90 /  12  18   9   3
GREENWOOD     66  90  64  90 /  12  17  10   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

/10/CME/15/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 172017
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
317 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE FRONT NOW HANGS JUST TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION NOW
HAS HALTED WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE DEEP SOUTH THIS EVENING. TRIGGERED BY AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EARLIER THIS MORNING...THIS COMPLEX WILL
APPROACH THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE DRY
AIR MASS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE THE CLOSER IT
GETS TO OUR CWA. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON OUR
AREA BUT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS STILL EXIST IN THE DELTA FOR
TOMORROW. A SECOND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OFF TO OUR WEST TOMORROW
WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND COULD TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION IN OUR
MOST WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. ANY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THAT DOES
FORM WILL BEGIN TO WANE WITH SUNSET TOMORROW.

AFTER THURSDAY`S DAYTIME ACTIVITY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD UP INTO THE SOUTH AGAIN AND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY
OUT. POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WHILE TEMPS GO BACK UP INTO THE LOW
90S WIDESPREAD FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. /10/

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT DO OFFER A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT.
BEFORE WE GET TO NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE FRI-SAT
PERIOD BEING PRECIP FREE. DURING THIS TIME THE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL
SHIFT TO ONE WITH A S/WV RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A BACKDOOR SFC
FRONT TO MOVE IN FROM THE NE/E. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRIER LOW LEVEL TO
MOVE ALONG WITH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR TO BUILD IN AS WELL.

TO START NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A E CONUS TROUGH TAKING SHAPE. WHAT IS MORE
IN PLAY WITH THE FORECAST NOW IS HOW BOTH THE GFS/EURO HAVE THE
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE S PLAINS AND
INTO THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION. THE EURO IS MORE BULLISH WITH THIS
SOLUTION AND HAS BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR MON/MON NGT. THE GFS
HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT SEEMS TO USE UP THE MOISTURE TOO QUICKLY
OVER THE PLAINS...THUS LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL WHEN MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION. WILL FOLLOW THE EURO SOLUTION. FOR TUE INTO
WED...THE SFC FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA AND ALLOW FOR
COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS TO BE IN PLACE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST INTO EARLY MON
BEFORE WE SHIFT TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS FOR TUE. GUID TEMPS WERE
OK...BUT SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE. FIRST...DUE TO SOME
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY...OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS/EURO MAX TEMPS. WITH A WETTER/MORE CLOUDY SOLUTION EXPECTED ON
MON...FOLLOWED MORE OF THE EURO TEMPS WITH A TREND BACK TO THE GFS
BY WED. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...BUT SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
DAY BREAK THURSDAY MORNING. THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS
THE AREA AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  90  64  91 /   8  18  10   4
MERIDIAN      65  89  63  90 /   6  11  11   4
VICKSBURG     66  91  62  91 /   7  20   9   4
HATTIESBURG   68  90  68  91 /   6  26  17   8
NATCHEZ       69  88  66  88 /   9  29  13   5
GREENVILLE    68  89  66  90 /  12  18   9   3
GREENWOOD     66  90  64  90 /  12  17  10   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

/10/CME/15/







000
FXUS64 KJAN 171503 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1003 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED SOUTH OF MOST OF THE CWA. IT ONLY PERSISTS
IN OUR THREE MOST SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES/PARISHES CURRENTLY AND THIS
IS WHERE OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF TODAY. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS BUT OTHERWISE NO REAL UPDATES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
MOST SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GTR WHERE IFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN STRATUS/FOG. ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR AFTER
15-16Z AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOME
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAY BREAK
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KNOTS...BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM LATER TONIGHT. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MEANDER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY AS THE
REGION SITS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  RAIN CHANCES TODAY AGAIN
LOOK CONFINED TO LOCALES ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH...MAINLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE 84 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTHWARD.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE
AGAIN A SLIGHTLY AIRMASS WILL NOW RESIDE.  EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO THE LOWER
90S SOUTH.  MEANWHILE LOWS TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS INCREASE...WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AS ANOTHER COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION.  THESE DISTURBANCES WILL SPARK SOME CONVECTION WEST OF
THE CWA THAT COULD MAKE ITS WAY EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MY
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE MORE SOUTH TRACKING DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH THE STILL STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THAT AREA.  HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL TOP OUT AROUND 90...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT FALLING
INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. /19/

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT DO OFFER A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT.
BEFORE WE GET TO NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE FRI-SAT
PERIOD BEING PRECIP FREE. DURING THIS TIME THE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL
SHIFT TO ONE WITH A S/WV RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A BACKDOOR SFC
FRONT TO MOVE IN FROM THE NE/E. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRIER LOW LEVEL TO
MOVE ALONG WITH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR TO BUILD IN AS WELL.

TO START NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A E CONUS TROUGH TAKING SHAPE. WHAT IS MORE
IN PLAY WITH THE FORECAST NOW IS HOW BOTH THE GFS/EURO HAVE THE
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE S PLAINS AND
INTO THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION. THE EURO IS MORE BULLISH WITH THIS
SOLUTION AND HAS BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR MON/MON NGT. THE GFS
HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT SEEMS TO USE UP THE MOISTURE TOO QUICKLY
OVER THE PLAINS...THUS LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL WHEN MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION. WILL FOLLOW THE EURO SOLUTION. FOR TUE INTO
WED...THE SFC FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA AND ALLOW FOR
COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS TO BE IN PLACE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST INTO EARLY MON
BEFORE WE SHIFT TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS FOR TUE. GUID TEMPS WERE
OK...BUT SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE. FIRST...DUE TO SOME
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY...OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS/EURO MAX TEMPS. WITH A WETTER/MORE CLOUDY SOLUTION EXPECTED ON
MON...FOLLOWED MORE OF THE EURO TEMPS WITH A TREND BACK TO THE GFS
BY WED. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  68  91  65 /   6   4  10   3
MERIDIAN      91  64  91  63 /   6   4   5   4
VICKSBURG     91  66  91  65 /   7   5  15   2
HATTIESBURG   93  70  92  67 /  12   9  15  14
NATCHEZ       90  69  88  66 /  13  15  27  12
GREENVILLE    88  66  89  67 /   1   7  20   2
GREENWOOD     88  65  89  65 /   2   6  13   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KJAN 171503 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1003 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED SOUTH OF MOST OF THE CWA. IT ONLY PERSISTS
IN OUR THREE MOST SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES/PARISHES CURRENTLY AND THIS
IS WHERE OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF TODAY. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS BUT OTHERWISE NO REAL UPDATES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
MOST SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GTR WHERE IFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN STRATUS/FOG. ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR AFTER
15-16Z AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOME
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAY BREAK
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KNOTS...BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM LATER TONIGHT. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MEANDER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY AS THE
REGION SITS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  RAIN CHANCES TODAY AGAIN
LOOK CONFINED TO LOCALES ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH...MAINLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE 84 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTHWARD.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE
AGAIN A SLIGHTLY AIRMASS WILL NOW RESIDE.  EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE TODAY AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO THE LOWER
90S SOUTH.  MEANWHILE LOWS TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS INCREASE...WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AS ANOTHER COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
THE REGION.  THESE DISTURBANCES WILL SPARK SOME CONVECTION WEST OF
THE CWA THAT COULD MAKE ITS WAY EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MY
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE MORE SOUTH TRACKING DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH THE STILL STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THAT AREA.  HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL TOP OUT AROUND 90...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT FALLING
INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. /19/

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT DO OFFER A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT.
BEFORE WE GET TO NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE FRI-SAT
PERIOD BEING PRECIP FREE. DURING THIS TIME THE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL
SHIFT TO ONE WITH A S/WV RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A BACKDOOR SFC
FRONT TO MOVE IN FROM THE NE/E. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRIER LOW LEVEL TO
MOVE ALONG WITH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR TO BUILD IN AS WELL.

TO START NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A E CONUS TROUGH TAKING SHAPE. WHAT IS MORE
IN PLAY WITH THE FORECAST NOW IS HOW BOTH THE GFS/EURO HAVE THE
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE S PLAINS AND
INTO THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION. THE EURO IS MORE BULLISH WITH THIS
SOLUTION AND HAS BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR MON/MON NGT. THE GFS
HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT SEEMS TO USE UP THE MOISTURE TOO QUICKLY
OVER THE PLAINS...THUS LIMITING THE PRECIP POTENTIAL WHEN MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION. WILL FOLLOW THE EURO SOLUTION. FOR TUE INTO
WED...THE SFC FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA AND ALLOW FOR
COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS TO BE IN PLACE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST INTO EARLY MON
BEFORE WE SHIFT TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS FOR TUE. GUID TEMPS WERE
OK...BUT SOME MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE. FIRST...DUE TO SOME
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY...OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS/EURO MAX TEMPS. WITH A WETTER/MORE CLOUDY SOLUTION EXPECTED ON
MON...FOLLOWED MORE OF THE EURO TEMPS WITH A TREND BACK TO THE GFS
BY WED. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  68  91  65 /   6   4  10   3
MERIDIAN      91  64  91  63 /   6   4   5   4
VICKSBURG     91  66  91  65 /   7   5  15   2
HATTIESBURG   93  70  92  67 /  12   9  15  14
NATCHEZ       90  69  88  66 /  13  15  27  12
GREENVILLE    88  66  89  67 /   1   7  20   2
GREENWOOD     88  65  89  65 /   2   6  13   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities