Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KJAN 110300
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
900 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER TONIGHT AS ANTICIPATED. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

NW FLOW AND SFC RIDGING CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY AS A NEAR
1030MB SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER NW FLOW AS WE ARE SITUATED IN BETWEEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE ERN CONUS AND WRN CONUS RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP NW FLOW OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A S/WV DEVELOPS OVER OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...EXPECT A SFC REFLECTION OF A WEAK SFC DRY FRONT TO DRIFT TO
THE S TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN ADVANCE...SOME LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD
BECOME MORE WRLY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE NW SFC
WINDS/ALOFT PICKS UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER LOW TEMPS TONIGHT...CLOSER TO
NORMAL...COMPARED TO THE MUCH COLDER TEMPS THIS MORNING. OVERALL THIS
FRONT WILL ONLY BRING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME INCREASING LIFT AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

LOW LEVEL COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS SOUTHWARD
MOVING DRY FRONT THURSDAY AS 850MB TEMPS REBOUND SOME 8-10 DEG
C....WHICH WILL WARM THE AREA UP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE N TO LOW
TO MID 70S IN THE S. AREAS ALONG/S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR COULD BE SOME
8-12 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE WARMER IN THE S IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. DUE TO INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVEMENT S OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
NIGHT...ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE WX GRIDS TO THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR
AS SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD BRING
SOME FOG POTENTIAL. LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL MODERATE HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT SOME STILL 5-9 DEG F ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG/S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN THE N/NE WHERE BEST LIFT RESIDES FROM DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S N TO LOW 40S S AS
THE SFC BOUNDARY DRIFTS S. RELEVANT PORTION OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY`S DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL SET UP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...IN ADDITION TO AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIKEWISE BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY... WHILE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN
INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH
COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AS THEY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
LOWS FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY...WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AS LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GFS AND ECMWF`S PLACEMENT OF FEATURES REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE CWA. HOWEVER...BOTH DO AGREE THAT A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS E OVER THE APPALACHIANS...SOME
RESIDUAL COLD COULD STICK AROUND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF THE PRECIP
MOVES IN FAST ENOUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH THERE COULD BE SOME
WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL IN THE FAR N/NE. LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW.
THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING GOOD RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DUE TO
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT WITH HAIL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW HEIGHTS AND
LOWER CONFIDENCE...LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN
END BEHIND THE FRONT BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 50S TO MID 60S...WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. CLEAR QUIET CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. /19/DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       38  68  40  64 /   1   1   0   4
MERIDIAN      31  66  37  64 /   1   1   0   3
VICKSBURG     41  68  40  64 /   1   1   1   4
HATTIESBURG   37  74  47  71 /   2   2   2   2
NATCHEZ       43  72  45  68 /   1   1   1   4
GREENVILLE    37  58  35  55 /   1   1   0   2
GREENWOOD     34  60  34  57 /   1   1   0   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 110300
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
900 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER TONIGHT AS ANTICIPATED. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

NW FLOW AND SFC RIDGING CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY AS A NEAR
1030MB SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER NW FLOW AS WE ARE SITUATED IN BETWEEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE ERN CONUS AND WRN CONUS RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP NW FLOW OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A S/WV DEVELOPS OVER OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...EXPECT A SFC REFLECTION OF A WEAK SFC DRY FRONT TO DRIFT TO
THE S TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN ADVANCE...SOME LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD
BECOME MORE WRLY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE NW SFC
WINDS/ALOFT PICKS UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER LOW TEMPS TONIGHT...CLOSER TO
NORMAL...COMPARED TO THE MUCH COLDER TEMPS THIS MORNING. OVERALL THIS
FRONT WILL ONLY BRING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME INCREASING LIFT AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

LOW LEVEL COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS SOUTHWARD
MOVING DRY FRONT THURSDAY AS 850MB TEMPS REBOUND SOME 8-10 DEG
C....WHICH WILL WARM THE AREA UP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE N TO LOW
TO MID 70S IN THE S. AREAS ALONG/S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR COULD BE SOME
8-12 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE WARMER IN THE S IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. DUE TO INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVEMENT S OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
NIGHT...ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE WX GRIDS TO THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR
AS SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD BRING
SOME FOG POTENTIAL. LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL MODERATE HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT SOME STILL 5-9 DEG F ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG/S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN THE N/NE WHERE BEST LIFT RESIDES FROM DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S N TO LOW 40S S AS
THE SFC BOUNDARY DRIFTS S. RELEVANT PORTION OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY`S DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL SET UP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...IN ADDITION TO AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIKEWISE BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY... WHILE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN
INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH
COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AS THEY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
LOWS FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY...WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AS LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GFS AND ECMWF`S PLACEMENT OF FEATURES REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE CWA. HOWEVER...BOTH DO AGREE THAT A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS E OVER THE APPALACHIANS...SOME
RESIDUAL COLD COULD STICK AROUND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF THE PRECIP
MOVES IN FAST ENOUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH THERE COULD BE SOME
WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL IN THE FAR N/NE. LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW.
THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING GOOD RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DUE TO
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT WITH HAIL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW HEIGHTS AND
LOWER CONFIDENCE...LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN
END BEHIND THE FRONT BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 50S TO MID 60S...WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. CLEAR QUIET CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. /19/DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       38  68  40  64 /   1   1   0   4
MERIDIAN      31  66  37  64 /   1   1   0   3
VICKSBURG     41  68  40  64 /   1   1   1   4
HATTIESBURG   37  74  47  71 /   2   2   2   2
NATCHEZ       43  72  45  68 /   1   1   1   4
GREENVILLE    37  58  35  55 /   1   1   0   2
GREENWOOD     34  60  34  57 /   1   1   0   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 110300
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
900 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER TONIGHT AS ANTICIPATED. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

NW FLOW AND SFC RIDGING CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY AS A NEAR
1030MB SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER NW FLOW AS WE ARE SITUATED IN BETWEEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE ERN CONUS AND WRN CONUS RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP NW FLOW OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A S/WV DEVELOPS OVER OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...EXPECT A SFC REFLECTION OF A WEAK SFC DRY FRONT TO DRIFT TO
THE S TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN ADVANCE...SOME LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD
BECOME MORE WRLY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE NW SFC
WINDS/ALOFT PICKS UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER LOW TEMPS TONIGHT...CLOSER TO
NORMAL...COMPARED TO THE MUCH COLDER TEMPS THIS MORNING. OVERALL THIS
FRONT WILL ONLY BRING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME INCREASING LIFT AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

LOW LEVEL COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS SOUTHWARD
MOVING DRY FRONT THURSDAY AS 850MB TEMPS REBOUND SOME 8-10 DEG
C....WHICH WILL WARM THE AREA UP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE N TO LOW
TO MID 70S IN THE S. AREAS ALONG/S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR COULD BE SOME
8-12 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE WARMER IN THE S IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. DUE TO INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVEMENT S OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
NIGHT...ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE WX GRIDS TO THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR
AS SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD BRING
SOME FOG POTENTIAL. LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL MODERATE HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT SOME STILL 5-9 DEG F ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG/S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN THE N/NE WHERE BEST LIFT RESIDES FROM DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S N TO LOW 40S S AS
THE SFC BOUNDARY DRIFTS S. RELEVANT PORTION OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY`S DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL SET UP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...IN ADDITION TO AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIKEWISE BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY... WHILE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN
INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH
COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AS THEY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
LOWS FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY...WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AS LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GFS AND ECMWF`S PLACEMENT OF FEATURES REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE CWA. HOWEVER...BOTH DO AGREE THAT A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS E OVER THE APPALACHIANS...SOME
RESIDUAL COLD COULD STICK AROUND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF THE PRECIP
MOVES IN FAST ENOUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH THERE COULD BE SOME
WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL IN THE FAR N/NE. LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW.
THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING GOOD RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DUE TO
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT WITH HAIL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW HEIGHTS AND
LOWER CONFIDENCE...LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN
END BEHIND THE FRONT BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 50S TO MID 60S...WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. CLEAR QUIET CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. /19/DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       38  68  40  64 /   1   1   0   4
MERIDIAN      31  66  37  64 /   1   1   0   3
VICKSBURG     41  68  40  64 /   1   1   1   4
HATTIESBURG   37  74  47  71 /   2   2   2   2
NATCHEZ       43  72  45  68 /   1   1   1   4
GREENVILLE    37  58  35  55 /   1   1   0   2
GREENWOOD     34  60  34  57 /   1   1   0   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 102144
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
344 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

NW FLOW AND SFC RIDGING CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY AS A NEAR
1030MB SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER NW FLOW AS WE ARE SITUATED IN BETWEEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE ERN CONUS AND WRN CONUS RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP NW FLOW OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A S/WV DEVELOPS OVER OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...EXPECT A SFC REFLECTION OF A WEAK SFC DRY FRONT TO DRIFT TO
THE S TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN ADVANCE...SOME LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD
BECOME MORE WRLY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE NW SFC
WINDS/ALOFT PICKS UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER LOW TEMPS TONIGHT...CLOSER TO
NORMAL...COMPARED TO THE MUCH COLDER TEMPS THIS MORNING. OVERALL THIS
FRONT WILL ONLY BRING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME INCREASING LIFT AND
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

LOW LEVEL COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS SOUTHWARD
MOVING DRY FRONT THURSDAY AS 850MB TEMPS REBOUND SOME 8-10 DEG
C....WHICH WILL WARM THE AREA UP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE N TO LOW
TO MID 70S IN THE S. AREAS ALONG/S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR COULD BE SOME
8-12 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE WARMER IN THE S IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. DUE TO INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVEMENT S OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
NIGHT...ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE WX GRIDS TO THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR
AS SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD BRING
SOME FOG POTENTIAL. LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL MODERATE HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT SOME STILL 5-9 DEG F ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG/S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN THE N/NE WHERE BEST LIFT RESIDES FROM DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 30S N TO LOW 40S S AS
THE SFC BOUNDARY DRIFTS S. RELEVANT PORTION OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY`S DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL SET UP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...IN ADDITION TO AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIKEWISE BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY... WHILE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN
INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH
COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AS THEY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
LOWS FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY...WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AS LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GFS AND ECMWF`S PLACEMENT OF FEATURES REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE CWA. HOWEVER...BOTH DO AGREE THAT A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS E OVER THE APPALACHIANS...SOME
RESIDUAL COLD COULD STICK AROUND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF THE PRECIP
MOVES IN FAST ENOUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH THERE COULD BE SOME
WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL IN THE FAR N/NE. LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW.
THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING GOOD RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. DUE TO
SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT WITH HAIL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW HEIGHTS AND
LOWER CONFIDENCE...LEFT OUT OF HWO FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN
END BEHIND THE FRONT BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. HIGHS MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 50S TO MID 60S...WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. CLEAR QUIET CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. /19/DC/

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT (BUT OCCASIONALLY GUSTY) THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE FLOW GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL TURN MORE DECIDEDLY SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH. TOMORROW THE
WEST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GUSTY. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       38  68  40  64 /   1   1   0   4
MERIDIAN      31  66  37  64 /   1   1   0   3
VICKSBURG     41  68  40  64 /   1   1   1   4
HATTIESBURG   37  74  47  71 /   2   2   2   2
NATCHEZ       43  72  45  68 /   1   1   1   4
GREENVILLE    37  58  35  55 /   1   1   0   2
GREENWOOD     34  60  34  57 /   1   1   0   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/19/BB





000
FXUS64 KJAN 101725 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1125 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
GOING FCST LOOKS GOOD. COULD SEE SOME STRATUS MOVE INTO NE
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BASED ON TRENDS IN
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW FLURRIES AS PRECIP
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.

SNELSON

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING
CONTINUES SHOWING THE LARGE AMPLIFIED TROF IN THE EAST AND RIDGE IN
THE WEST. WHILE RIDGE LOOKS TO HANG ON IN THE WEST...MODELS ARE
INDICATING A DEAMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN AS THE MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS BEGINS SWINGING EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
ITS SURFACE REFLECTION LOW WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. AS THEY MOVE SOUTH...THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO GET PULLED AWAY EAST WITH THE EXITING LONGWAVE
TROF LEAVING THE SURFACE LOW AND ITS WEAK COLD FRONT ADRIFT. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN SLIDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS DRY...BUT SUFFICIENT LIFT
SHOULD PROVIDE AN APPRECIABLE CLOUD DECK IN ADVANCE.

WARM ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. NO NOTICEABLE WARMTH FROM THE WIND SHIFT
TODAY AS TEMPS START OUT IN THE 20S WITH A CONSIDERABLE COLD AIRMASS
TO HAVE TO DISLODGE. WARM ADVECTION AFFECTS WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT
TONIGHT AS MINS ONLY MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE 30S/LOWER 40S. THURSDAY
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AS THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN MANAGES TO
PUSH TEMPS FIRMLY INTO THE 60S/LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE 30S/LOWER 40S AS
COLD AIRMASS QUALITY NOT NEARLY WHAT IS HAS BEEN OF LATE./26/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF
THURSDAY`S DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  COLD ADVECTION WILL SET UP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.  THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...IN ADDITION TO AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS LIKEWISE BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION.  SURFACE FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY... WHILE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN
INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 70.  HOWEVER...WITH COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AS THEY RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT.  CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY...WILL PROMOTE
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S.

DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GFS AND ECMWF`S PLACEMENT OF FEATURES REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE CWA. HOWEVER...BOTH DO AGREE THAT A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
COME TO AN END BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.  HIGHS MONDAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S...WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.  CLEAR QUIET CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AND LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. /19/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       50  37  67  39 /   1   3  12   4
MERIDIAN      48  30  65  37 /   1   3  12   4
VICKSBURG     52  39  67  39 /   1   3  13   4
HATTIESBURG   53  36  73  46 /   2   4   6   6
NATCHEZ       53  42  71  44 /   1   4  11   3
GREENVILLE    47  37  57  35 /   5   3   7   3
GREENWOOD     46  33  59  33 /   5   3   8   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN/JAN




000
FXUS64 KJAN 101725 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1125 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
GOING FCST LOOKS GOOD. COULD SEE SOME STRATUS MOVE INTO NE
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BASED ON TRENDS IN
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW FLURRIES AS PRECIP
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.

SNELSON

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING
CONTINUES SHOWING THE LARGE AMPLIFIED TROF IN THE EAST AND RIDGE IN
THE WEST. WHILE RIDGE LOOKS TO HANG ON IN THE WEST...MODELS ARE
INDICATING A DEAMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN AS THE MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS BEGINS SWINGING EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
ITS SURFACE REFLECTION LOW WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. AS THEY MOVE SOUTH...THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO GET PULLED AWAY EAST WITH THE EXITING LONGWAVE
TROF LEAVING THE SURFACE LOW AND ITS WEAK COLD FRONT ADRIFT. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN SLIDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS DRY...BUT SUFFICIENT LIFT
SHOULD PROVIDE AN APPRECIABLE CLOUD DECK IN ADVANCE.

WARM ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. NO NOTICEABLE WARMTH FROM THE WIND SHIFT
TODAY AS TEMPS START OUT IN THE 20S WITH A CONSIDERABLE COLD AIRMASS
TO HAVE TO DISLODGE. WARM ADVECTION AFFECTS WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT
TONIGHT AS MINS ONLY MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE 30S/LOWER 40S. THURSDAY
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AS THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN MANAGES TO
PUSH TEMPS FIRMLY INTO THE 60S/LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE 30S/LOWER 40S AS
COLD AIRMASS QUALITY NOT NEARLY WHAT IS HAS BEEN OF LATE./26/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF
THURSDAY`S DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  COLD ADVECTION WILL SET UP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.  THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...IN ADDITION TO AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS LIKEWISE BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION.  SURFACE FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY... WHILE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN
INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 70.  HOWEVER...WITH COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AS THEY RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT.  CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY...WILL PROMOTE
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S.

DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GFS AND ECMWF`S PLACEMENT OF FEATURES REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE CWA. HOWEVER...BOTH DO AGREE THAT A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
COME TO AN END BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.  HIGHS MONDAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S...WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.  CLEAR QUIET CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AND LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. /19/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       50  37  67  39 /   1   3  12   4
MERIDIAN      48  30  65  37 /   1   3  12   4
VICKSBURG     52  39  67  39 /   1   3  13   4
HATTIESBURG   53  36  73  46 /   2   4   6   6
NATCHEZ       53  42  71  44 /   1   4  11   3
GREENVILLE    47  37  57  35 /   5   3   7   3
GREENWOOD     46  33  59  33 /   5   3   8   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN/JAN





000
FXUS64 KJAN 101725 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1125 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
GOING FCST LOOKS GOOD. COULD SEE SOME STRATUS MOVE INTO NE
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BASED ON TRENDS IN
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW FLURRIES AS PRECIP
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.

SNELSON

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING
CONTINUES SHOWING THE LARGE AMPLIFIED TROF IN THE EAST AND RIDGE IN
THE WEST. WHILE RIDGE LOOKS TO HANG ON IN THE WEST...MODELS ARE
INDICATING A DEAMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN AS THE MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS BEGINS SWINGING EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
ITS SURFACE REFLECTION LOW WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. AS THEY MOVE SOUTH...THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO GET PULLED AWAY EAST WITH THE EXITING LONGWAVE
TROF LEAVING THE SURFACE LOW AND ITS WEAK COLD FRONT ADRIFT. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN SLIDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS DRY...BUT SUFFICIENT LIFT
SHOULD PROVIDE AN APPRECIABLE CLOUD DECK IN ADVANCE.

WARM ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. NO NOTICEABLE WARMTH FROM THE WIND SHIFT
TODAY AS TEMPS START OUT IN THE 20S WITH A CONSIDERABLE COLD AIRMASS
TO HAVE TO DISLODGE. WARM ADVECTION AFFECTS WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT
TONIGHT AS MINS ONLY MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE 30S/LOWER 40S. THURSDAY
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AS THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN MANAGES TO
PUSH TEMPS FIRMLY INTO THE 60S/LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE 30S/LOWER 40S AS
COLD AIRMASS QUALITY NOT NEARLY WHAT IS HAS BEEN OF LATE./26/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF
THURSDAY`S DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  COLD ADVECTION WILL SET UP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.  THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...IN ADDITION TO AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS LIKEWISE BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION.  SURFACE FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY... WHILE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN
INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 70.  HOWEVER...WITH COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AS THEY RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT.  CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY...WILL PROMOTE
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S.

DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GFS AND ECMWF`S PLACEMENT OF FEATURES REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE CWA. HOWEVER...BOTH DO AGREE THAT A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
COME TO AN END BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.  HIGHS MONDAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S...WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.  CLEAR QUIET CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AND LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. /19/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       50  37  67  39 /   1   3  12   4
MERIDIAN      48  30  65  37 /   1   3  12   4
VICKSBURG     52  39  67  39 /   1   3  13   4
HATTIESBURG   53  36  73  46 /   2   4   6   6
NATCHEZ       53  42  71  44 /   1   4  11   3
GREENVILLE    47  37  57  35 /   5   3   7   3
GREENWOOD     46  33  59  33 /   5   3   8   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN/JAN





000
FXUS64 KJAN 100913
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
313 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING
CONTINUES SHOWING THE LARGE AMPLIFIED TROF IN THE EAST AND RIDGE IN
THE WEST. WHILE RIDGE LOOKS TO HANG ON IN THE WEST...MODELS ARE
INDICATING A DEAMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN AS THE MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS BEGINS SWINGING EAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
ITS SURFACE REFLECTION LOW WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. AS THEY MOVE SOUTH...THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO GET PULLED AWAY EAST WITH THE EXITING LONGWAVE
TROF LEAVING THE SURFACE LOW AND ITS WEAK COLD FRONT ADRIFT. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN SLIDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS DRY...BUT SUFFICIENT LIFT
SHOULD PROVIDE AN APPRECIABLE CLOUD DECK IN ADVANCE.

WARM ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. NO NOTICEABLE WARMTH FROM THE WIND SHIFT
TODAY AS TEMPS START OUT IN THE 20S WITH A CONSIDERABLE COLD AIRMASS
TO HAVE TO DISLODGE. WARM ADVECTION AFFECTS WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT
TONIGHT AS MINS ONLY MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE 30S/LOWER 40S. THURSDAY
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AS THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN MANAGES TO
PUSH TEMPS FIRMLY INTO THE 60S/LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE 30S/LOWER 40S AS
COLD AIRMASS QUALITY NOT NEARLY WHAT IS HAS BEEN OF LATE./26/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF
THURSDAY`S DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  COLD ADVECTION WILL SET UP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.  THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...IN ADDITION TO AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS LIKEWISE BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION.  SURFACE FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY... WHILE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN
INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 70.  HOWEVER...WITH COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AS THEY RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY
NIGHT.  CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT SUNDAY...WILL PROMOTE
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S.

DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GFS AND ECMWF`S PLACEMENT OF FEATURES REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE CWA. HOWEVER...BOTH DO AGREE THAT A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING GOOD RAIN CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
COME TO AN END BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.  HIGHS MONDAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S...WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.  CLEAR QUIET CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AND LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       50  37  67  39 /   1   3  12   4
MERIDIAN      48  30  65  37 /   1   3  12   4
VICKSBURG     52  39  67  39 /   1   3  13   4
HATTIESBURG   53  36  73  46 /   2   4   6   6
NATCHEZ       53  42  71  44 /   1   4  11   3
GREENVILLE    47  37  57  35 /   5   3   7   3
GREENWOOD     46  33  59  33 /   5   3   8   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

26/19/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 100339
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
939 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST WERE NECESSARY IN THIS UPDATE. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS IS ALLOWING COLD FRONTS TO SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS WITH ANOTHER FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS ARE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 PM. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
SURFACE GRADIENT WEAKENS...BECOMING MAINLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
NEAR 20 IN THE EAST TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE WEST. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM A HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE GULF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.

A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL
STRENGTHEN OUR SOUTHERLY FLOW...THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S IN THE
SOUTH...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE NORTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR. /15/

LONG TERM...THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST FORTUNATELY
CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER SUBDUED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A
COUPLE OF REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO AND
THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AGAIN NO RAIN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH
THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTS...AND INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...ARE EXPECTED.

YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...WILL AID IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOKING TO FALL ON MONDAY.  RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. /19/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON (WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KT POSSIBLE) WILL
SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET. NW GUSTS OF 15-20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EAST MS ON WEDNESDAY. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       26  51  36  68 /   3   0   0   4
MERIDIAN      22  50  29  68 /   3   0   5   4
VICKSBURG     28  53  41  67 /   3   0   0   4
HATTIESBURG   27  53  33  74 /   3   0   4   2
NATCHEZ       29  54  42  73 /   3   0   0   3
GREENVILLE    27  49  36  56 /   3   0   0   4
GREENWOOD     23  47  33  57 /   3   0   1   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 092111
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
311 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS IS ALLOWING COLD FRONTS TO SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS ARKLAMISS
WITH ANOTHER FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
ARE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SURFACE
GRADIENT WEAKENS...BECOMING MAINLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
NEAR 20 IN THE EAST TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE WEST. CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM A HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE GULF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.

A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL
STRENGTHEN OUR SOUTHERLY FLOW...THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S IN THE
SOUTH...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE NORTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR. /15/

.LONG TERM...THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST FORTUNATELY
CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER SUBDUED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A
COUPLE OF REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO AND
THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AGAIN NO RAIN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH
THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTS...AND INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...ARE EXPECTED.

YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...WILL AID IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOKING TO FALL ON MONDAY.  RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON (WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KT POSSIBLE) WILL
SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET. NW GUSTS OF 15-20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EAST MS ON WEDNESDAY. /DL/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       48  26  51  36 /   1   3   0   0
MERIDIAN      46  22  50  29 /   2   3   0   5
VICKSBURG     50  28  53  41 /   1   3   0   0
HATTIESBURG   51  27  53  33 /   3   3   0   4
NATCHEZ       52  29  54  42 /   1   3   0   0
GREENVILLE    47  27  49  36 /   2   3   0   0
GREENWOOD     45  23  47  33 /   4   3   0   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

15/DL/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 091606
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1005 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURING JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SHIFT EVEN FURTHER AWAY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND THERE IS A WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 6PM FOR WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MIN RH`S FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 20 PERCENT RANGE COMBINING WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE LIMITED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN HIGHLIGHTED
IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICASTS. MADE A FEW UPDATES TO TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS...BUT OTHER THAN THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK./15/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WV IMAGERY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. IR IMAGERY SHOWING
INTERMEDIATE CLOUD DECK PERSISTING OVER NE SECTIONS. EXPECT THE CLOUD
DECK TO SPREAD BACK OUT TO THE SW SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT NOT AS
EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY.

SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WILL SUPPORT A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. GFS BUFR DATA SHOWING WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER AVERAGING AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE HRRR IS PICKING UP ON
THIS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS AND SLIGHTLY LESS TO THE SOUTH.

DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE TEENS OVER THE SW QUARTER ALONG WITH 20 TO
30 MPH WINDS WILL PROMOTE A LIMITED FIRE DANGER RISK AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE THIS ALONG WITH THE WIND RISK IN THE HWO THIS
MORNING.

MID LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER COOL
DAY TODAY AND COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
HEADING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL TROF/SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY LEADING TO WARMER LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS./26/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST FORTUNATELY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER SUBDUED
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  A COUPLE OF REINFORCING DRY COLD
FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.  AGAIN NO
RAIN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES.
HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTS...
AND INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ARE
EXPECTED.

YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...WILL AID IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOKING TO FALL ON MONDAY.  RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW
WIND WILL BE GUSTY TODAY WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET. /DL/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       48  26  51  36 /   1   3   0   0
MERIDIAN      46  22  50  29 /   2   3   0   5
VICKSBURG     50  28  53  41 /   1   3   0   0
HATTIESBURG   51  27  53  33 /   3   3   0   4
NATCHEZ       52  29  54  42 /   1   3   0   0
GREENVILLE    47  27  49  36 /   2   3   0   0
GREENWOOD     45  23  47  33 /   4   3   0   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

26/19





000
FXUS64 KJAN 090935
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
335 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WV IMAGERY THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. IR IMAGERY SHOWING
INTERMEDIATE CLOUD DECK PERSISTING OVER NE SECTIONS. EXPECT THE CLOUD
DECK TO SPREAD BACK OUT TO THE SW SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNRISE...BUT NOT AS
EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY.

SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WILL SUPPORT A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. GFS BUFR DATA SHOWING WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER AVERAGING AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE HRRR IS PICKING UP ON
THIS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS AND SLIGHTLY LESS TO THE SOUTH.

DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE TEENS OVER THE SW QUARTER ALONG WITH 20 TO
30 MPH WINDS WILL PROMOTE A LIMITED FIRE DANGER RISK AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE THIS ALONG WITH THE WIND RISK IN THE HWO THIS
MORNING.

MID LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER COOL
DAY TODAY AND COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
HEADING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL TROF/SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY LEADING TO WARMER LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS./26/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST FORTUNATELY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER SUBDUED
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  A COUPLE OF REINFORCING DRY COLD
FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.  AGAIN NO
RAIN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES.
HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTS...
AND INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ARE
EXPECTED.

YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...WILL AID IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOKING TO FALL ON MONDAY.  RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END BEHIND THE
FRONT BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. /19/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN TODAY BECOME SOMEWHAT STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON WITH
GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS. THESE SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY 10/00Z./26/


&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       48  26  51  36 /   1   3   0   0
MERIDIAN      46  22  50  29 /   2   3   0   5
VICKSBURG     50  28  53  41 /   1   3   0   0
HATTIESBURG   51  27  53  33 /   3   3   0   4
NATCHEZ       52  29  54  42 /   1   3   0   0
GREENVILLE    47  27  49  36 /   2   3   0   0
GREENWOOD     45  23  47  33 /   4   3   0   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

26/19





000
FXUS64 KJAN 090347
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
947 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

COLD AIR ADVECTION IS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RATHER MIXED OVER
MOST OF THE ARKLAMISS THIS EVENING AND TEMPERATURES ARE STAYING UP A
BIT AS A RESULT...HOWEVER AM SEEING EVIDENCE OF SOME DECOUPLING IN
THE PINE BELT REGION AND TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING MORE QUICKLY THERE
AS WAS EXPECTED. OVERALL...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR
TONIGHT BASED ON THE TRENDS AND FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO THE RAW
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN THE CAA REGIME. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. STRATOCUMULUS CIGS IN THE 4000-6000 FT RANGE WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE GWO-GTR TO PERHAPS MEI AREA. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CLOSED LOW
SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN A VERY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
DROPPING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ALOFT WAS
NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH AND THE COMBINED CAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
AND THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S COLD FRONT WAS RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WL CONTINUE THE WIND
ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM OVER OUR NORTHWEST WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE
BEING OBSERVED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN LAYER OF
STRATOCU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. LOCAL RADARS WERE ONLY
SHOWING A FEW VERY LIGHT RETURNS JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH A FLURRY OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER OUR NORTHEAST MOST ZONES INTO THIS EVENING. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TUESDAY. A RATHER
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINTAINING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
OUR REGION BUT NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
BEYOND THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHEAST. DRY WEATHER AND COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE FRO MOST SITES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE BACK IN THE 20S OVER MOST
OF OUR AREA. DESPITE SUNNY SKIES...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THAT WILL HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE.
MORNING LOWS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING. /22/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO
OVERALL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. A WEEK WARM-UP IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN CAN`T BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WE MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME AS HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID
30S...WITH MID 30S TO MID 40S FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       30  47  28  51 /   3   1   0   0
MERIDIAN      30  45  24  49 /   7   3   0   0
VICKSBURG     31  50  28  52 /   3   1   0   0
HATTIESBURG   30  50  29  55 /   3   1   0   0
NATCHEZ       33  52  30  53 /   2   1   0   0
GREENVILLE    30  47  28  48 /   3   2   0   0
GREENWOOD     28  44  25  46 /   5   2   1   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN/JAN





000
FXUS64 KJAN 082145
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CLOSED LOW
SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN A VERY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
DROPPING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ALOFT WAS
NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH AND THE COMBINED CAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
AND THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S COLD FRONT WAS RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WL CONTINUE THE WIND
ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM OVER OUR NORTHWEST WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE
BEING OBSERVED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN LAYER OF
STRATOCU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. LOCAL RADARS WERE ONLY
SHOWING A FEW VERY LIGHT RETURNS JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH A FLURRY OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER OUR NORTHEAST MOST ZONES INTO THIS EVENING. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TUESDAY. A RATHER
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINTAINING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
OUR REGION BUT NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
BEYOND THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHEAST. DRY WEATHER AND COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE FRO MOST SITES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE BACK IN THE 20S OVER MOST
OF OUR AREA. DESPITE SUNNY SKIES...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THAT WILL HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE.
MORNING LOWS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING. /22/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO
OVERALL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. A WEEK WARM-UP IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN CAN`T BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WE MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME AS HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID
30S...WITH MID 30S TO MID 40S FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND BEEN
BREEZY/GUSTY TODAY. SPEEDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35-40KTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN
AROUND 10KTS BEFORE BECOMING BREEZY YET AGAIN DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       29  49  28  51 /   3   1   0   0
MERIDIAN      26  46  24  49 /   7   3   0   0
VICKSBURG     30  51  28  52 /   3   1   0   0
HATTIESBURG   29  52  29  55 /   3   1   0   0
NATCHEZ       31  51  30  53 /   2   1   0   0
GREENVILLE    30  49  28  48 /   3   2   0   0
GREENWOOD     28  45  25  46 /   5   2   1   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035-040-041-047-053-059>061.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

22/19/28





000
FXUS64 KJAN 082145
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CLOSED LOW
SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN A VERY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
DROPPING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ALOFT WAS
NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH AND THE COMBINED CAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
AND THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S COLD FRONT WAS RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WL CONTINUE THE WIND
ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM OVER OUR NORTHWEST WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE
BEING OBSERVED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN LAYER OF
STRATOCU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. LOCAL RADARS WERE ONLY
SHOWING A FEW VERY LIGHT RETURNS JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH A FLURRY OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER OUR NORTHEAST MOST ZONES INTO THIS EVENING. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TUESDAY. A RATHER
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINTAINING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
OUR REGION BUT NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
BEYOND THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHEAST. DRY WEATHER AND COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE FRO MOST SITES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE BACK IN THE 20S OVER MOST
OF OUR AREA. DESPITE SUNNY SKIES...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THAT WILL HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE.
MORNING LOWS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING. /22/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO
OVERALL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. A WEEK WARM-UP IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT
RAIN CAN`T BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WE MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME AS HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID
30S...WITH MID 30S TO MID 40S FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND BEEN
BREEZY/GUSTY TODAY. SPEEDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35-40KTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN
AROUND 10KTS BEFORE BECOMING BREEZY YET AGAIN DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       29  49  28  51 /   3   1   0   0
MERIDIAN      26  46  24  49 /   7   3   0   0
VICKSBURG     30  51  28  52 /   3   1   0   0
HATTIESBURG   29  52  29  55 /   3   1   0   0
NATCHEZ       31  51  30  53 /   2   1   0   0
GREENVILLE    30  49  28  48 /   3   2   0   0
GREENWOOD     28  45  25  46 /   5   2   1   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035-040-041-047-053-059>061.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

22/19/28




000
FXUS64 KJAN 081642 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1042 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF OUR CWA AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN ITS WAKE. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH HAVE ALREADY
BEEN OBSERVED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER OUR NORTHWEST. THE WIND
WILL MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER OUR NORTHEAST SO THE CURRENT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ONLY SHOWED A FEW CU STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER OUR CWA AT 10 AM. THE
ISOLATION TODAY WL BE OFFSET BY THE CAA BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
TO FORECAST HIGHS ALREADY. HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE
DEGREES AND ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVES TO MATCH THE TREND.
HI-RES MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE PCPN OVER OUR NORTHEAST UNTIL THIS
EVENING. HAVE REMOVED POPS UNTIL MID AFTERNOON OVER OUR NORTHEAST
MOST ZONES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. A
COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WHICH IS RESULTING IN A WIND
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25KTS
SUSTAINED WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KGLH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
30KTS. ELSEWHERE....SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20KTS ARE MORE LIKELY. /28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWING IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF AXIS DIVING RAPIDLY SE INTO
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTEND WITH DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

TWO FORECAST PROBLEMS TO DEAL WITH TODAY AS TEMPS BEGIN COOLING OFF.
FIRST...BLUSTERY WINDS WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE UPPER DELTA AS OF 09Z. THESE WINDS OVER THE
OPEN TERRAIN...LAKES...AND RIVERS OF THE DELTA REGION WILL LIKELY
EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL...THEREFORE...POST A WIND
ADVISORY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTIES/PARISHES IN THE DELTA
REGION.

SENCOND FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE NE TODAY AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST POCKETS OF SHALLOW CAPE WILL SUPPORT
A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE. HRRR/ARW AND NMM HINT AT THIS SCENARIO
IN THEIR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING WITH FURTHER COOLING IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. WITH THE QUICK AND LIGHT
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIP
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE LOWER
LEVELS./26/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO
OVERALL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  A COOL START TO THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LATE WEEK WARM-UP THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT SOME
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN CAN`T BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WE MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME AS HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID
30S...WITH MID 30S TO MID 40S FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       53  29  47  27 /   3   3   0   0
MERIDIAN      52  27  46  24 /   8   7   1   0
VICKSBURG     52  30  50  29 /   2   3   0   0
HATTIESBURG   55  29  49  29 /   2   8   1   1
NATCHEZ       54  30  51  31 /   2   3   0   0
GREENVILLE    50  29  47  28 /   4   3   1   0
GREENWOOD     50  27  45  25 /   9   5   2   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035-040-041-047-053-059>061.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

22/28/26/19





000
FXUS64 KJAN 080908
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
308 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWING IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF AXIS DIVING RAPIDLY SE INTO
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTEND WITH DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

TWO FORECAST PROBLEMS TO DEAL WITH TODAY AS TEMPS BEGIN COOLING OFF.
FIRST...BLUSTERY WINDS WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE UPPER DELTA AS OF 09Z. THESE WINDS OVER THE
OPEN TERRAIN...LAKES...AND RIVERS OF THE DELTA REGION WILL LIKELY
EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL...THEREFORE...POST A WIND
ADVISORY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTIES/PARISHES IN THE DELTA
REGION.

SENCOND FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE NE TODAY AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST POCKETS OF SHALLOW CAPE WILL SUPPORT
A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE. HRRR/ARW AND NMM HINT AT THIS SCENARIO
IN THEIR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING WITH FURTHER COOLING IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. WITH THE QUICK AND LIGHT
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIP
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE LOWER
LEVELS./26/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO
OVERALL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  A COOL START TO THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LATE WEEK WARM-UP THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT SOME
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN CAN`T BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WE MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME AS HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID
30S...WITH MID 30S TO MID 40S FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. /19/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY OUT OF THE NW THROUGH 00Z.
SUSTAINED 15-20 KNOTS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR GLH. A GRADUAL RELAXATION IN THE WIND WILL
GET UNDERWAY AFTER 00Z./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       51  29  47  27 /   7   3   0   0
MERIDIAN      52  27  46  24 /  10   7   1   0
VICKSBURG     52  30  50  29 /   6   3   0   0
HATTIESBURG   55  29  49  29 /   4   8   1   1
NATCHEZ       54  30  51  31 /   3   3   0   0
GREENVILLE    48  29  47  28 /   6   3   1   0
GREENWOOD     48  27  45  25 /  10   5   2   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-047-053-059>061.

LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

26/19





000
FXUS64 KJAN 080908
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
308 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWING IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF AXIS DIVING RAPIDLY SE INTO
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTEND WITH DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

TWO FORECAST PROBLEMS TO DEAL WITH TODAY AS TEMPS BEGIN COOLING OFF.
FIRST...BLUSTERY WINDS WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE UPPER DELTA AS OF 09Z. THESE WINDS OVER THE
OPEN TERRAIN...LAKES...AND RIVERS OF THE DELTA REGION WILL LIKELY
EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL...THEREFORE...POST A WIND
ADVISORY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTIES/PARISHES IN THE DELTA
REGION.

SENCOND FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE NE TODAY AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST POCKETS OF SHALLOW CAPE WILL SUPPORT
A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE. HRRR/ARW AND NMM HINT AT THIS SCENARIO
IN THEIR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING WITH FURTHER COOLING IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. WITH THE QUICK AND LIGHT
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIP
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE LOWER
LEVELS./26/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO
OVERALL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  A COOL START TO THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LATE WEEK WARM-UP THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT SOME
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN CAN`T BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WE MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME AS HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID
30S...WITH MID 30S TO MID 40S FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. /19/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY OUT OF THE NW THROUGH 00Z.
SUSTAINED 15-20 KNOTS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR GLH. A GRADUAL RELAXATION IN THE WIND WILL
GET UNDERWAY AFTER 00Z./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       51  29  47  27 /   7   3   0   0
MERIDIAN      52  27  46  24 /  10   7   1   0
VICKSBURG     52  30  50  29 /   6   3   0   0
HATTIESBURG   55  29  49  29 /   4   8   1   1
NATCHEZ       54  30  51  31 /   3   3   0   0
GREENVILLE    48  29  47  28 /   6   3   1   0
GREENWOOD     48  27  45  25 /  10   5   2   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-047-053-059>061.

LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

26/19




000
FXUS64 KJAN 080908
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
308 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWING IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF AXIS DIVING RAPIDLY SE INTO
THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTEND WITH DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

TWO FORECAST PROBLEMS TO DEAL WITH TODAY AS TEMPS BEGIN COOLING OFF.
FIRST...BLUSTERY WINDS WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE UPPER DELTA AS OF 09Z. THESE WINDS OVER THE
OPEN TERRAIN...LAKES...AND RIVERS OF THE DELTA REGION WILL LIKELY
EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL...THEREFORE...POST A WIND
ADVISORY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTIES/PARISHES IN THE DELTA
REGION.

SENCOND FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER
THE NE TODAY AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST POCKETS OF SHALLOW CAPE WILL SUPPORT
A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE. HRRR/ARW AND NMM HINT AT THIS SCENARIO
IN THEIR REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING WITH FURTHER COOLING IN THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. WITH THE QUICK AND LIGHT
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIP
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE LOWER
LEVELS./26/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO
OVERALL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.  A COOL START TO THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LATE WEEK WARM-UP THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT SOME
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN CAN`T BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO THE CWA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WE MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME AS HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID
30S...WITH MID 30S TO MID 40S FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. /19/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY OUT OF THE NW THROUGH 00Z.
SUSTAINED 15-20 KNOTS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR GLH. A GRADUAL RELAXATION IN THE WIND WILL
GET UNDERWAY AFTER 00Z./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       51  29  47  27 /   7   3   0   0
MERIDIAN      52  27  46  24 /  10   7   1   0
VICKSBURG     52  30  50  29 /   6   3   0   0
HATTIESBURG   55  29  49  29 /   4   8   1   1
NATCHEZ       54  30  51  31 /   3   3   0   0
GREENVILLE    48  29  47  28 /   6   3   1   0
GREENWOOD     48  27  45  25 /  10   5   2   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-047-053-059>061.

LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

26/19





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities