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000
FXUS64 KJAN 311456
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
955 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH DRIER AIR IN THE REGION
WITH LESS HUMIDITY. MORNING SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER TO
UPPER 60S...WHICH WILL MAKE THE HEAT OF THE DAY A LITTLE LESS
INTENSE. AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE LIMITED
RISK OF FIRE DANGER FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. RH VALUES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.
925 WINDS WILL BE AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH
WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT 20 TO 25 MPH GUST. HOWEVER WILL
MONITOR MINIMUM RH VALUES JUST IN CASE DEWPOINTS MIX OUT TO LOWER
VALUES FOR LOWER HUMIDITY READINGS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE FIRE DANGER
SOME. OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE 91 TO 94 RANGE LOOK GOOD FOR THIS
AFTERNOON./17/

&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC.
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS AND GUSTS 17=25KTS. /28/
&&

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...353 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DRIER AIR
AND LOWER RH VALUES. WHILE LESS HUMIDITY WILL BE WELCOME...THIS MAY
HAVE AN IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (MORE ON THAT BELOW).

DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE AREA AS OF 3AM. SFC DEWPTS
IN THE MID/LOWER 60S EXIST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
FOR SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT
WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS AND HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH 91-
95 RANGE. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
AND PWATS WILL RUN 1.0 TO 1.3 TODAY AND TREND TO 0.75 TO 1.0 TONIGHT
INTO SAT NIGHT. THAT IS SUBSTANTIALLY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
THE RESULT WILL BE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS INTO THE
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED FROM THE DRY AIR AND
LOOKS TO YIELD MID/UPPER 60S FOR LOW TEMPS THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS.
ADDITIONALLY...AS WE WARM TODAY...LOOK FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM THE
NNE AND LIKELY PEAKING NEAR 20-25 MPH.

WITH THE DRIER AIR AND LOWISH RH VALUES (30-40%)...THE FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. COMBINE THAT WITH THE LACK OF PRECIP OVER
THE PAST 3 WEEKS...SOME BURN BANS IN EFFECT AND INCREASED WINDS
TODAY...WILL INTRODUCE A LIMITED THREAT TO BRING ATTENTION TO THIS
RISK AND MENTION BURNING IS DISCOURAGED. /CME/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING IN THE WESTERN US AND A GENERAL TROFFINESS
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NATION. IN THE
LOWER LEVEL...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S.

SHIFTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND BEGIN TAPPING INTO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS MOVE BACK IN. TUESDAY WILL HAVE
SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH ISOLATED STORMS IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND OCCURRING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN MONDAY.

BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN
THE 70S OVERSPREADING THE REGION...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING
SE IN THE NW FLOW WILL KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED DURING MAX HEATING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS CONVECTION WILL SERVE TO MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS AS
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 70S FOR THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WELL FOR AIRMASS TYPE
CONVECTION AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST IN
PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  68  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      92  64  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     93  66  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   95  69  95  69 /   8   5   4   4
NATCHEZ       92  67  93  68 /   1   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    92  67  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     92  66  93  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/26/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 311456
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
955 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH DRIER AIR IN THE REGION
WITH LESS HUMIDITY. MORNING SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER TO
UPPER 60S...WHICH WILL MAKE THE HEAT OF THE DAY A LITTLE LESS
INTENSE. AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE LIMITED
RISK OF FIRE DANGER FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. RH VALUES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.
925 WINDS WILL BE AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH
WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT 20 TO 25 MPH GUST. HOWEVER WILL
MONITOR MINIMUM RH VALUES JUST IN CASE DEWPOINTS MIX OUT TO LOWER
VALUES FOR LOWER HUMIDITY READINGS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE FIRE DANGER
SOME. OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE 91 TO 94 RANGE LOOK GOOD FOR THIS
AFTERNOON./17/

&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC.
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS AND GUSTS 17=25KTS. /28/
&&

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...353 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DRIER AIR
AND LOWER RH VALUES. WHILE LESS HUMIDITY WILL BE WELCOME...THIS MAY
HAVE AN IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (MORE ON THAT BELOW).

DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE AREA AS OF 3AM. SFC DEWPTS
IN THE MID/LOWER 60S EXIST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
FOR SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT
WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS AND HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH 91-
95 RANGE. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
AND PWATS WILL RUN 1.0 TO 1.3 TODAY AND TREND TO 0.75 TO 1.0 TONIGHT
INTO SAT NIGHT. THAT IS SUBSTANTIALLY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
THE RESULT WILL BE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS INTO THE
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED FROM THE DRY AIR AND
LOOKS TO YIELD MID/UPPER 60S FOR LOW TEMPS THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS.
ADDITIONALLY...AS WE WARM TODAY...LOOK FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM THE
NNE AND LIKELY PEAKING NEAR 20-25 MPH.

WITH THE DRIER AIR AND LOWISH RH VALUES (30-40%)...THE FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. COMBINE THAT WITH THE LACK OF PRECIP OVER
THE PAST 3 WEEKS...SOME BURN BANS IN EFFECT AND INCREASED WINDS
TODAY...WILL INTRODUCE A LIMITED THREAT TO BRING ATTENTION TO THIS
RISK AND MENTION BURNING IS DISCOURAGED. /CME/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING IN THE WESTERN US AND A GENERAL TROFFINESS
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NATION. IN THE
LOWER LEVEL...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S.

SHIFTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND BEGIN TAPPING INTO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS MOVE BACK IN. TUESDAY WILL HAVE
SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH ISOLATED STORMS IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND OCCURRING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN MONDAY.

BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN
THE 70S OVERSPREADING THE REGION...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING
SE IN THE NW FLOW WILL KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED DURING MAX HEATING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS CONVECTION WILL SERVE TO MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS AS
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 70S FOR THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WELL FOR AIRMASS TYPE
CONVECTION AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST IN
PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  68  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      92  64  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     93  66  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   95  69  95  69 /   8   5   4   4
NATCHEZ       92  67  93  68 /   1   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    92  67  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     92  66  93  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/26/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 311456
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
955 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH DRIER AIR IN THE REGION
WITH LESS HUMIDITY. MORNING SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER TO
UPPER 60S...WHICH WILL MAKE THE HEAT OF THE DAY A LITTLE LESS
INTENSE. AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE LIMITED
RISK OF FIRE DANGER FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. RH VALUES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.
925 WINDS WILL BE AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH
WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT 20 TO 25 MPH GUST. HOWEVER WILL
MONITOR MINIMUM RH VALUES JUST IN CASE DEWPOINTS MIX OUT TO LOWER
VALUES FOR LOWER HUMIDITY READINGS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE FIRE DANGER
SOME. OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE 91 TO 94 RANGE LOOK GOOD FOR THIS
AFTERNOON./17/

&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC.
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS AND GUSTS 17=25KTS. /28/
&&

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...353 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DRIER AIR
AND LOWER RH VALUES. WHILE LESS HUMIDITY WILL BE WELCOME...THIS MAY
HAVE AN IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (MORE ON THAT BELOW).

DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE AREA AS OF 3AM. SFC DEWPTS
IN THE MID/LOWER 60S EXIST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
FOR SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT
WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS AND HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH 91-
95 RANGE. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
AND PWATS WILL RUN 1.0 TO 1.3 TODAY AND TREND TO 0.75 TO 1.0 TONIGHT
INTO SAT NIGHT. THAT IS SUBSTANTIALLY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
THE RESULT WILL BE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS INTO THE
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED FROM THE DRY AIR AND
LOOKS TO YIELD MID/UPPER 60S FOR LOW TEMPS THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS.
ADDITIONALLY...AS WE WARM TODAY...LOOK FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM THE
NNE AND LIKELY PEAKING NEAR 20-25 MPH.

WITH THE DRIER AIR AND LOWISH RH VALUES (30-40%)...THE FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. COMBINE THAT WITH THE LACK OF PRECIP OVER
THE PAST 3 WEEKS...SOME BURN BANS IN EFFECT AND INCREASED WINDS
TODAY...WILL INTRODUCE A LIMITED THREAT TO BRING ATTENTION TO THIS
RISK AND MENTION BURNING IS DISCOURAGED. /CME/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING IN THE WESTERN US AND A GENERAL TROFFINESS
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NATION. IN THE
LOWER LEVEL...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S.

SHIFTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND BEGIN TAPPING INTO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS MOVE BACK IN. TUESDAY WILL HAVE
SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH ISOLATED STORMS IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND OCCURRING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN MONDAY.

BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN
THE 70S OVERSPREADING THE REGION...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING
SE IN THE NW FLOW WILL KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED DURING MAX HEATING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS CONVECTION WILL SERVE TO MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS AS
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 70S FOR THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WELL FOR AIRMASS TYPE
CONVECTION AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST IN
PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  68  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      92  64  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     93  66  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   95  69  95  69 /   8   5   4   4
NATCHEZ       92  67  93  68 /   1   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    92  67  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     92  66  93  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/26/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 310853
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
353 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DRIER AIR
AND LOWER RH VALUES. WHILE LESS HUMIDITY WILL BE WELCOME...THIS MAY
HAVE AN IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (MORE ON THAT BELOW).

DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE AREA AS OF 3AM. SFC DEWPTS
IN THE MID/LOWER 60S EXIST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
FOR SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT
WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS AND HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH 91-
95 RANGE. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
AND PWATS WILL RUN 1.0 TO 1.3 TODAY AND TREND TO 0.75 TO 1.0 TONIGHT
INTO SAT NIGHT. THAT IS SUBSTANTIALLY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
THE RESULT WILL BE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS INTO THE
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED FROM THE DRY AIR AND
LOOKS TO YIELD MID/UPPER 60S FOR LOW TEMPS THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS.
ADDITIONALLY...AS WE WARM TODAY...LOOK FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM THE
NNE AND LIKELY PEAKING NEAR 20-25 MPH.

WITH THE DRIER AIR AND LOWISH RH VALUES (30-40%)...THE FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. COMBINE THAT WITH THE LACK OF PRECIP OVER
THE PAST 3 WEEKS...SOME BURN BANS IN EFFECT AND INCREASED WINDS
TODAY...WILL INTRODUCE A LIMITED THREAT TO BRING ATTENTION TO THIS
RISK AND MENTION BURNING IS DISCOURAGED. /CME/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING IN THE WESTERN US AND A GENERAL TROFFINESS
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NATION. IN THE
LOWER LEVEL...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S.

SHIFTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND BEGIN TAPPING INTO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS MOVE BACK IN. TUESDAY WILL HAVE
SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH ISOLATED STORMS IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND OCCURRING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN MONDAY.

BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN
THE 70S OVERSPREADING THE REGION...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING
SE IN THE NW FLOW WILL KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED DURING MAX HEATING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS CONVECTION WILL SERVE TO MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS AS
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 70S FOR THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WELL FOR AIRMASS TYPE
CONVECTION AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST IN
PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE./26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY NNE WINDS TODAY. LOOK FOR GUSTS TO PEAK
BETWEEN 18-25KTS. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  68  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      92  64  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     93  66  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   95  69  95  69 /   8   5   4   4
NATCHEZ       92  67  93  68 /   1   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    92  67  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     92  66  93  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/26/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 310853
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
353 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DRIER AIR
AND LOWER RH VALUES. WHILE LESS HUMIDITY WILL BE WELCOME...THIS MAY
HAVE AN IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (MORE ON THAT BELOW).

DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE AREA AS OF 3AM. SFC DEWPTS
IN THE MID/LOWER 60S EXIST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
FOR SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT
WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS AND HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH 91-
95 RANGE. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
AND PWATS WILL RUN 1.0 TO 1.3 TODAY AND TREND TO 0.75 TO 1.0 TONIGHT
INTO SAT NIGHT. THAT IS SUBSTANTIALLY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
THE RESULT WILL BE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS INTO THE
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED FROM THE DRY AIR AND
LOOKS TO YIELD MID/UPPER 60S FOR LOW TEMPS THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS.
ADDITIONALLY...AS WE WARM TODAY...LOOK FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM THE
NNE AND LIKELY PEAKING NEAR 20-25 MPH.

WITH THE DRIER AIR AND LOWISH RH VALUES (30-40%)...THE FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. COMBINE THAT WITH THE LACK OF PRECIP OVER
THE PAST 3 WEEKS...SOME BURN BANS IN EFFECT AND INCREASED WINDS
TODAY...WILL INTRODUCE A LIMITED THREAT TO BRING ATTENTION TO THIS
RISK AND MENTION BURNING IS DISCOURAGED. /CME/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING IN THE WESTERN US AND A GENERAL TROFFINESS
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NATION. IN THE
LOWER LEVEL...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S.

SHIFTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND BEGIN TAPPING INTO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS MOVE BACK IN. TUESDAY WILL HAVE
SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH ISOLATED STORMS IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND OCCURRING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN MONDAY.

BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN
THE 70S OVERSPREADING THE REGION...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING
SE IN THE NW FLOW WILL KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED DURING MAX HEATING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS CONVECTION WILL SERVE TO MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS AS
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 70S FOR THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WELL FOR AIRMASS TYPE
CONVECTION AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST IN
PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE./26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY NNE WINDS TODAY. LOOK FOR GUSTS TO PEAK
BETWEEN 18-25KTS. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  68  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      92  64  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     93  66  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   95  69  95  69 /   8   5   4   4
NATCHEZ       92  67  93  68 /   1   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    92  67  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     92  66  93  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/26/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 310853
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
353 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DRIER AIR
AND LOWER RH VALUES. WHILE LESS HUMIDITY WILL BE WELCOME...THIS MAY
HAVE AN IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (MORE ON THAT BELOW).

DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE AREA AS OF 3AM. SFC DEWPTS
IN THE MID/LOWER 60S EXIST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
FOR SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT
WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS AND HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH 91-
95 RANGE. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
AND PWATS WILL RUN 1.0 TO 1.3 TODAY AND TREND TO 0.75 TO 1.0 TONIGHT
INTO SAT NIGHT. THAT IS SUBSTANTIALLY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
THE RESULT WILL BE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS INTO THE
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED FROM THE DRY AIR AND
LOOKS TO YIELD MID/UPPER 60S FOR LOW TEMPS THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS.
ADDITIONALLY...AS WE WARM TODAY...LOOK FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM THE
NNE AND LIKELY PEAKING NEAR 20-25 MPH.

WITH THE DRIER AIR AND LOWISH RH VALUES (30-40%)...THE FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. COMBINE THAT WITH THE LACK OF PRECIP OVER
THE PAST 3 WEEKS...SOME BURN BANS IN EFFECT AND INCREASED WINDS
TODAY...WILL INTRODUCE A LIMITED THREAT TO BRING ATTENTION TO THIS
RISK AND MENTION BURNING IS DISCOURAGED. /CME/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING IN THE WESTERN US AND A GENERAL TROFFINESS
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NATION. IN THE
LOWER LEVEL...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S.

SHIFTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND BEGIN TAPPING INTO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS MOVE BACK IN. TUESDAY WILL HAVE
SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH ISOLATED STORMS IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND OCCURRING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN MONDAY.

BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN
THE 70S OVERSPREADING THE REGION...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING
SE IN THE NW FLOW WILL KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED DURING MAX HEATING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS CONVECTION WILL SERVE TO MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS AS
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 70S FOR THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WELL FOR AIRMASS TYPE
CONVECTION AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST IN
PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE./26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY NNE WINDS TODAY. LOOK FOR GUSTS TO PEAK
BETWEEN 18-25KTS. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  68  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      92  64  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     93  66  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   95  69  95  69 /   8   5   4   4
NATCHEZ       92  67  93  68 /   1   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    92  67  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     92  66  93  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/26/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 310103 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
805 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE... A WELCOMED COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE HEART
OF THE REGION CURRENTLY...WITH STILL A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STRAY
STORM POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-20 THROUGH THE EVENING. ALL THE POTENT AND
GUSTY STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
WEAKENED WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING DOWN TOWARD THE
COAST. THE GENERAL TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE
DRYING WITH CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH CLEARING. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
AIR FILTERING SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL BE EVIDENT COME
DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ACTUALLY HAVING A CHANCE TO
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR. THE CURRENT INCOMING DRIER AIR WILL THANKFULLY STICK
AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT AROUND
PIB/HBG...BUT OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT ALL
SITES WITH NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. BECAUSE OF THESE WINDS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR DAYBREAK CONDITIONS IS PRETTY LOW. TOMORROW
WILL BE DRY WITH MORE VFR CONDITIONS AND ACTUALLY RELATIVELY FEW
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND A LITTLE
GUSTY AT TIMES. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO LINGER IN THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING PAST 23-00Z. BUT SOME OF THESE STORMS
ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO S/SE MS WITH SOME AREAS IN NE LA STORMS
DEVELOPING FROM SOME AMBIENT LIFT/HIGH INSTABILITY. AREAS IN THE
S/SE WHERE HOT TEMPS/BETTER FLOW ALOFT...SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. DUE TO DEWPOINTS NOT REALLY
MIXING MUCH THIS AFTERNOON AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...WE WERE ABLE
TO REACH NEAR 105-110 DEGREES HEAT INDICES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
DUE TO THE FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING/HEAT ADVISORY WILL ONLY CONTINUE
UNTIL 00Z.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE S TONIGHT...BRINGING MUCH
NEEDED RELIEF ACROSS THE REGION. ANOMALOUS DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT...JUST AROUND 1-1.25 INCHES BY 12Z
FRIDAY. DUE TO DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
AREAWIDE WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING TONIGHT. TOMORROW PW`S WILL
ONLY BE AROUND AN INCH AND WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVING IN...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 3-6 DEGREES COOLER MAINLY IN LOW/MID 90S.

AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS GRADUALLY DEEPENS AND NRLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THE DRIEST AIR SEEN IN AWHILE. PW`S
WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY LOW TO NEAR RECORD LOW MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...WHICH WILL BRING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S. THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FOR SUCH WARM TEMPS
THE AREA HAS SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK. AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL SOMEWHAT
AND THE RIDGE FLATTENS..HIGHS WILL STILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 90S.
SOME MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP BACK IN THE REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING
BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. RELEVANT PORTION OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS
ATTACHED. /DC/

LONG TERM...THROUGH NEXT WEEK...LIGHT MID LEVEL NW FLOW REGIME WILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AS RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED AND BROAD
TROFFINESS MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
FROM THE AIRMASS CHANGE THAT OCCURRED ON FRIDAY.

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BRING DRY
SLUGS OF DRY AIR SOUTHWARD. WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE EASILY ATTAINED...BUT WITH IT BEING MORE OF
A DRY HEAT...HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE AIR TEMP.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR
SE...HOWEVER...IN BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. /26/

FIRE WEATHER... COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL DROP MOISTURE
VALUES THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT RH`S TO FALL NEAR 30%
RANGE WITH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20MPH. DUE TO LITTLE RAINFALL
AND DRY CONDITIONS OVERALL...EXPECT SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER TO BE
POSSIBLE THE NEXT TWO DAYS. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  94  68  95 /  11   0   0   3
MERIDIAN      69  93  65  94 /  10   1   0   3
VICKSBURG     69  95  67  96 /  14   0   0   2
HATTIESBURG   74  95  70  96 /  21  11   4   6
NATCHEZ       71  93  69  94 /  18   4   0   3
GREENVILLE    69  94  68  95 /   4   0   0   3
GREENWOOD     68  93  66  94 /   5   0   0   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/DC/26





000
FXUS64 KJAN 310103 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
805 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE... A WELCOMED COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE HEART
OF THE REGION CURRENTLY...WITH STILL A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STRAY
STORM POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-20 THROUGH THE EVENING. ALL THE POTENT AND
GUSTY STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
WEAKENED WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING DOWN TOWARD THE
COAST. THE GENERAL TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE
DRYING WITH CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH CLEARING. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
AIR FILTERING SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL BE EVIDENT COME
DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ACTUALLY HAVING A CHANCE TO
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR. THE CURRENT INCOMING DRIER AIR WILL THANKFULLY STICK
AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT AROUND
PIB/HBG...BUT OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT ALL
SITES WITH NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. BECAUSE OF THESE WINDS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR DAYBREAK CONDITIONS IS PRETTY LOW. TOMORROW
WILL BE DRY WITH MORE VFR CONDITIONS AND ACTUALLY RELATIVELY FEW
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND A LITTLE
GUSTY AT TIMES. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO LINGER IN THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING PAST 23-00Z. BUT SOME OF THESE STORMS
ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO S/SE MS WITH SOME AREAS IN NE LA STORMS
DEVELOPING FROM SOME AMBIENT LIFT/HIGH INSTABILITY. AREAS IN THE
S/SE WHERE HOT TEMPS/BETTER FLOW ALOFT...SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. DUE TO DEWPOINTS NOT REALLY
MIXING MUCH THIS AFTERNOON AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...WE WERE ABLE
TO REACH NEAR 105-110 DEGREES HEAT INDICES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
DUE TO THE FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING/HEAT ADVISORY WILL ONLY CONTINUE
UNTIL 00Z.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE S TONIGHT...BRINGING MUCH
NEEDED RELIEF ACROSS THE REGION. ANOMALOUS DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT...JUST AROUND 1-1.25 INCHES BY 12Z
FRIDAY. DUE TO DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
AREAWIDE WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING TONIGHT. TOMORROW PW`S WILL
ONLY BE AROUND AN INCH AND WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVING IN...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 3-6 DEGREES COOLER MAINLY IN LOW/MID 90S.

AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS GRADUALLY DEEPENS AND NRLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THE DRIEST AIR SEEN IN AWHILE. PW`S
WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY LOW TO NEAR RECORD LOW MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...WHICH WILL BRING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S. THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FOR SUCH WARM TEMPS
THE AREA HAS SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK. AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL SOMEWHAT
AND THE RIDGE FLATTENS..HIGHS WILL STILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 90S.
SOME MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP BACK IN THE REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING
BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. RELEVANT PORTION OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS
ATTACHED. /DC/

LONG TERM...THROUGH NEXT WEEK...LIGHT MID LEVEL NW FLOW REGIME WILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AS RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED AND BROAD
TROFFINESS MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
FROM THE AIRMASS CHANGE THAT OCCURRED ON FRIDAY.

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BRING DRY
SLUGS OF DRY AIR SOUTHWARD. WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE EASILY ATTAINED...BUT WITH IT BEING MORE OF
A DRY HEAT...HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE AIR TEMP.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR
SE...HOWEVER...IN BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. /26/

FIRE WEATHER... COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL DROP MOISTURE
VALUES THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT RH`S TO FALL NEAR 30%
RANGE WITH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20MPH. DUE TO LITTLE RAINFALL
AND DRY CONDITIONS OVERALL...EXPECT SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER TO BE
POSSIBLE THE NEXT TWO DAYS. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  94  68  95 /  11   0   0   3
MERIDIAN      69  93  65  94 /  10   1   0   3
VICKSBURG     69  95  67  96 /  14   0   0   2
HATTIESBURG   74  95  70  96 /  21  11   4   6
NATCHEZ       71  93  69  94 /  18   4   0   3
GREENVILLE    69  94  68  95 /   4   0   0   3
GREENWOOD     68  93  66  94 /   5   0   0   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/DC/26




000
FXUS64 KJAN 310103 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
805 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE... A WELCOMED COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE HEART
OF THE REGION CURRENTLY...WITH STILL A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STRAY
STORM POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-20 THROUGH THE EVENING. ALL THE POTENT AND
GUSTY STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
WEAKENED WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING DOWN TOWARD THE
COAST. THE GENERAL TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE
DRYING WITH CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH CLEARING. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
AIR FILTERING SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL BE EVIDENT COME
DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ACTUALLY HAVING A CHANCE TO
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR. THE CURRENT INCOMING DRIER AIR WILL THANKFULLY STICK
AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT AROUND
PIB/HBG...BUT OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT ALL
SITES WITH NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. BECAUSE OF THESE WINDS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR DAYBREAK CONDITIONS IS PRETTY LOW. TOMORROW
WILL BE DRY WITH MORE VFR CONDITIONS AND ACTUALLY RELATIVELY FEW
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND A LITTLE
GUSTY AT TIMES. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO LINGER IN THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING PAST 23-00Z. BUT SOME OF THESE STORMS
ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO S/SE MS WITH SOME AREAS IN NE LA STORMS
DEVELOPING FROM SOME AMBIENT LIFT/HIGH INSTABILITY. AREAS IN THE
S/SE WHERE HOT TEMPS/BETTER FLOW ALOFT...SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. DUE TO DEWPOINTS NOT REALLY
MIXING MUCH THIS AFTERNOON AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...WE WERE ABLE
TO REACH NEAR 105-110 DEGREES HEAT INDICES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
DUE TO THE FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING/HEAT ADVISORY WILL ONLY CONTINUE
UNTIL 00Z.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE S TONIGHT...BRINGING MUCH
NEEDED RELIEF ACROSS THE REGION. ANOMALOUS DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT...JUST AROUND 1-1.25 INCHES BY 12Z
FRIDAY. DUE TO DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
AREAWIDE WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING TONIGHT. TOMORROW PW`S WILL
ONLY BE AROUND AN INCH AND WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVING IN...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 3-6 DEGREES COOLER MAINLY IN LOW/MID 90S.

AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS GRADUALLY DEEPENS AND NRLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THE DRIEST AIR SEEN IN AWHILE. PW`S
WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY LOW TO NEAR RECORD LOW MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...WHICH WILL BRING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S. THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FOR SUCH WARM TEMPS
THE AREA HAS SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK. AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL SOMEWHAT
AND THE RIDGE FLATTENS..HIGHS WILL STILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 90S.
SOME MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP BACK IN THE REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING
BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. RELEVANT PORTION OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS
ATTACHED. /DC/

LONG TERM...THROUGH NEXT WEEK...LIGHT MID LEVEL NW FLOW REGIME WILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AS RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED AND BROAD
TROFFINESS MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
FROM THE AIRMASS CHANGE THAT OCCURRED ON FRIDAY.

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BRING DRY
SLUGS OF DRY AIR SOUTHWARD. WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE EASILY ATTAINED...BUT WITH IT BEING MORE OF
A DRY HEAT...HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE AIR TEMP.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR
SE...HOWEVER...IN BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. /26/

FIRE WEATHER... COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL DROP MOISTURE
VALUES THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT RH`S TO FALL NEAR 30%
RANGE WITH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20MPH. DUE TO LITTLE RAINFALL
AND DRY CONDITIONS OVERALL...EXPECT SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER TO BE
POSSIBLE THE NEXT TWO DAYS. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  94  68  95 /  11   0   0   3
MERIDIAN      69  93  65  94 /  10   1   0   3
VICKSBURG     69  95  67  96 /  14   0   0   2
HATTIESBURG   74  95  70  96 /  21  11   4   6
NATCHEZ       71  93  69  94 /  18   4   0   3
GREENVILLE    69  94  68  95 /   4   0   0   3
GREENWOOD     68  93  66  94 /   5   0   0   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/DC/26





000
FXUS64 KJAN 302122
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
422 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...HEAT CONTINUES TODAY BEFORE COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...

FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO LINGER IN THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING PAST 23-00Z. BUT
SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO S/SE MS WITH SOME AREAS
IN NE LA STORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOME AMBIENT LIFT/HIGH INSTABILITY.
AREAS IN THE S/SE WHERE HOT TEMPS/BETTER FLOW ALOFT...SOME STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. DUE TO DEWPOINTS NOT
REALLY MIXING MUCH THIS AFTERNOON AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...WE WERE
ABLE TO REACH NEAR 105-110 DEGREES HEAT INDICES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. DUE TO THE FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING/HEAT ADVISORY WILL ONLY CONTINUE
UNTIL 00Z.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE S TONIGHT...BRINGING MUCH
NEEDED RELIEF ACROSS THE REGION. ANOMALOUS DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT...JUST AROUND 1-1.25 INCHES BY 12Z
FRIDAY. DUE TO DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
AREAWIDE WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING TONIGHT. TOMORROW PW`S WILL
ONLY BE AROUND AN INCH AND WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVING IN...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 3-6 DEGREES COOLER MAINLY IN LOW/MID 90S.

AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS GRADUALLY DEEPENS AND NRLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THE DRIEST AIR SEEN IN AWHILE. PW`S
WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY LOW TO NEAR RECORD LOW MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...WHICH WILL BRING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S. THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FOR SUCH WARM TEMPS
THE AREA HAS SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK. AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL SOMEWHAT
AND THE RIDGE FLATTENS..HIGHS WILL STILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 90S.
SOME MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP BACK IN THE REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING
BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. RELEVANT PORTION OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS
ATTACHED. /DC/

.LONG TERM...THROUGH NEXT WEEK...LIGHT MID LEVEL NW FLOW REGIME WILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AS RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED AND BROAD
TROFFINESS MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
FROM THE AIRMASS CHANGE THAT OCCURRED ON FRIDAY.

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BRING DRY
SLUGS OF DRY AIR SOUTHWARD. WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE EASILY ATTAINED...BUT WITH IT BEING MORE OF
A DRY HEAT...HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE AIR TEMP.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR
SE...HOWEVER...IN BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITH THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS
COMING FROM SCT TSRA. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD HAVE SOME
DAMAGING WINDS. WILL FOCUS THE TIMING OF THE VCTS ENDING BY 23Z WITH
BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF. WINDS
WILL BE N/NE TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 20KTS. THERE MAY BE
SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY IN SPOTS THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL EARLY IN THE MORNING. /17/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL DROP MOISTURE VALUES THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT RH`S TO FALL NEAR 30% RANGE WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20MPH. DUE TO LITTLE RAINFALL AND DRY
CONDITIONS OVERALL...EXPECT SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER TO BE POSSIBLE
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  94  68  95 /  11   0   0   3
MERIDIAN      69  93  65  94 /  10   1   0   3
VICKSBURG     69  95  67  96 /  14   0   0   2
HATTIESBURG   74  95  70  96 /  21  11   4   6
NATCHEZ       71  93  69  94 /  18   4   0   3
GREENVILLE    69  94  68  95 /   4   0   0   3
GREENWOOD     68  93  66  94 /   5   0   0   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ034>039-042>046-
     048>066-072>074.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ040-
     041-047.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ026.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DC/26/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 302122
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
422 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...HEAT CONTINUES TODAY BEFORE COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...

FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO LINGER IN THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING PAST 23-00Z. BUT
SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO S/SE MS WITH SOME AREAS
IN NE LA STORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOME AMBIENT LIFT/HIGH INSTABILITY.
AREAS IN THE S/SE WHERE HOT TEMPS/BETTER FLOW ALOFT...SOME STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. DUE TO DEWPOINTS NOT
REALLY MIXING MUCH THIS AFTERNOON AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...WE WERE
ABLE TO REACH NEAR 105-110 DEGREES HEAT INDICES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. DUE TO THE FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING/HEAT ADVISORY WILL ONLY CONTINUE
UNTIL 00Z.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE S TONIGHT...BRINGING MUCH
NEEDED RELIEF ACROSS THE REGION. ANOMALOUS DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT...JUST AROUND 1-1.25 INCHES BY 12Z
FRIDAY. DUE TO DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
AREAWIDE WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING TONIGHT. TOMORROW PW`S WILL
ONLY BE AROUND AN INCH AND WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVING IN...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 3-6 DEGREES COOLER MAINLY IN LOW/MID 90S.

AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS GRADUALLY DEEPENS AND NRLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THE DRIEST AIR SEEN IN AWHILE. PW`S
WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY LOW TO NEAR RECORD LOW MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...WHICH WILL BRING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S. THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FOR SUCH WARM TEMPS
THE AREA HAS SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK. AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL SOMEWHAT
AND THE RIDGE FLATTENS..HIGHS WILL STILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 90S.
SOME MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP BACK IN THE REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING
BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. RELEVANT PORTION OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS
ATTACHED. /DC/

.LONG TERM...THROUGH NEXT WEEK...LIGHT MID LEVEL NW FLOW REGIME WILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AS RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED AND BROAD
TROFFINESS MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
FROM THE AIRMASS CHANGE THAT OCCURRED ON FRIDAY.

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BRING DRY
SLUGS OF DRY AIR SOUTHWARD. WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE EASILY ATTAINED...BUT WITH IT BEING MORE OF
A DRY HEAT...HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE AIR TEMP.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR
SE...HOWEVER...IN BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITH THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS
COMING FROM SCT TSRA. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD HAVE SOME
DAMAGING WINDS. WILL FOCUS THE TIMING OF THE VCTS ENDING BY 23Z WITH
BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF. WINDS
WILL BE N/NE TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 20KTS. THERE MAY BE
SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY IN SPOTS THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL EARLY IN THE MORNING. /17/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL DROP MOISTURE VALUES THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT RH`S TO FALL NEAR 30% RANGE WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20MPH. DUE TO LITTLE RAINFALL AND DRY
CONDITIONS OVERALL...EXPECT SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER TO BE POSSIBLE
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  94  68  95 /  11   0   0   3
MERIDIAN      69  93  65  94 /  10   1   0   3
VICKSBURG     69  95  67  96 /  14   0   0   2
HATTIESBURG   74  95  70  96 /  21  11   4   6
NATCHEZ       71  93  69  94 /  18   4   0   3
GREENVILLE    69  94  68  95 /   4   0   0   3
GREENWOOD     68  93  66  94 /   5   0   0   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ034>039-042>046-
     048>066-072>074.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ040-
     041-047.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ026.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DC/26/17





000
FXUS64 KJAN 302122
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
422 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...HEAT CONTINUES TODAY BEFORE COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...

FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO LINGER IN THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING PAST 23-00Z. BUT
SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO S/SE MS WITH SOME AREAS
IN NE LA STORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOME AMBIENT LIFT/HIGH INSTABILITY.
AREAS IN THE S/SE WHERE HOT TEMPS/BETTER FLOW ALOFT...SOME STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. DUE TO DEWPOINTS NOT
REALLY MIXING MUCH THIS AFTERNOON AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...WE WERE
ABLE TO REACH NEAR 105-110 DEGREES HEAT INDICES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. DUE TO THE FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING/HEAT ADVISORY WILL ONLY CONTINUE
UNTIL 00Z.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE S TONIGHT...BRINGING MUCH
NEEDED RELIEF ACROSS THE REGION. ANOMALOUS DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT...JUST AROUND 1-1.25 INCHES BY 12Z
FRIDAY. DUE TO DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
AREAWIDE WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING TONIGHT. TOMORROW PW`S WILL
ONLY BE AROUND AN INCH AND WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVING IN...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 3-6 DEGREES COOLER MAINLY IN LOW/MID 90S.

AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS GRADUALLY DEEPENS AND NRLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THE DRIEST AIR SEEN IN AWHILE. PW`S
WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY LOW TO NEAR RECORD LOW MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...WHICH WILL BRING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S. THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FOR SUCH WARM TEMPS
THE AREA HAS SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK. AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL SOMEWHAT
AND THE RIDGE FLATTENS..HIGHS WILL STILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 90S.
SOME MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP BACK IN THE REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING
BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. RELEVANT PORTION OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS
ATTACHED. /DC/

.LONG TERM...THROUGH NEXT WEEK...LIGHT MID LEVEL NW FLOW REGIME WILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AS RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED AND BROAD
TROFFINESS MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
FROM THE AIRMASS CHANGE THAT OCCURRED ON FRIDAY.

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BRING DRY
SLUGS OF DRY AIR SOUTHWARD. WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE EASILY ATTAINED...BUT WITH IT BEING MORE OF
A DRY HEAT...HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE AIR TEMP.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR
SE...HOWEVER...IN BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITH THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS
COMING FROM SCT TSRA. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD HAVE SOME
DAMAGING WINDS. WILL FOCUS THE TIMING OF THE VCTS ENDING BY 23Z WITH
BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF. WINDS
WILL BE N/NE TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 20KTS. THERE MAY BE
SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY IN SPOTS THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL EARLY IN THE MORNING. /17/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL DROP MOISTURE VALUES THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT RH`S TO FALL NEAR 30% RANGE WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20MPH. DUE TO LITTLE RAINFALL AND DRY
CONDITIONS OVERALL...EXPECT SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER TO BE POSSIBLE
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  94  68  95 /  11   0   0   3
MERIDIAN      69  93  65  94 /  10   1   0   3
VICKSBURG     69  95  67  96 /  14   0   0   2
HATTIESBURG   74  95  70  96 /  21  11   4   6
NATCHEZ       71  93  69  94 /  18   4   0   3
GREENVILLE    69  94  68  95 /   4   0   0   3
GREENWOOD     68  93  66  94 /   5   0   0   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ034>039-042>046-
     048>066-072>074.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ040-
     041-047.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ026.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DC/26/17





000
FXUS64 KJAN 302122
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
422 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...HEAT CONTINUES TODAY BEFORE COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...

FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO LINGER IN THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING PAST 23-00Z. BUT
SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO S/SE MS WITH SOME AREAS
IN NE LA STORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOME AMBIENT LIFT/HIGH INSTABILITY.
AREAS IN THE S/SE WHERE HOT TEMPS/BETTER FLOW ALOFT...SOME STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. DUE TO DEWPOINTS NOT
REALLY MIXING MUCH THIS AFTERNOON AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...WE WERE
ABLE TO REACH NEAR 105-110 DEGREES HEAT INDICES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. DUE TO THE FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING/HEAT ADVISORY WILL ONLY CONTINUE
UNTIL 00Z.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE S TONIGHT...BRINGING MUCH
NEEDED RELIEF ACROSS THE REGION. ANOMALOUS DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT...JUST AROUND 1-1.25 INCHES BY 12Z
FRIDAY. DUE TO DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
AREAWIDE WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING TONIGHT. TOMORROW PW`S WILL
ONLY BE AROUND AN INCH AND WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVING IN...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 3-6 DEGREES COOLER MAINLY IN LOW/MID 90S.

AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS GRADUALLY DEEPENS AND NRLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THE DRIEST AIR SEEN IN AWHILE. PW`S
WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY LOW TO NEAR RECORD LOW MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...WHICH WILL BRING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S. THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FOR SUCH WARM TEMPS
THE AREA HAS SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK. AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL SOMEWHAT
AND THE RIDGE FLATTENS..HIGHS WILL STILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 90S.
SOME MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP BACK IN THE REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING
BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. RELEVANT PORTION OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS
ATTACHED. /DC/

.LONG TERM...THROUGH NEXT WEEK...LIGHT MID LEVEL NW FLOW REGIME WILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AS RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED AND BROAD
TROFFINESS MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
FROM THE AIRMASS CHANGE THAT OCCURRED ON FRIDAY.

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BRING DRY
SLUGS OF DRY AIR SOUTHWARD. WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE EASILY ATTAINED...BUT WITH IT BEING MORE OF
A DRY HEAT...HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE AIR TEMP.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR
SE...HOWEVER...IN BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITH THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS
COMING FROM SCT TSRA. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD HAVE SOME
DAMAGING WINDS. WILL FOCUS THE TIMING OF THE VCTS ENDING BY 23Z WITH
BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF. WINDS
WILL BE N/NE TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 20KTS. THERE MAY BE
SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY IN SPOTS THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL EARLY IN THE MORNING. /17/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL DROP MOISTURE VALUES THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT RH`S TO FALL NEAR 30% RANGE WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20MPH. DUE TO LITTLE RAINFALL AND DRY
CONDITIONS OVERALL...EXPECT SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER TO BE POSSIBLE
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  94  68  95 /  11   0   0   3
MERIDIAN      69  93  65  94 /  10   1   0   3
VICKSBURG     69  95  67  96 /  14   0   0   2
HATTIESBURG   74  95  70  96 /  21  11   4   6
NATCHEZ       71  93  69  94 /  18   4   0   3
GREENVILLE    69  94  68  95 /   4   0   0   3
GREENWOOD     68  93  66  94 /   5   0   0   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ034>039-042>046-
     048>066-072>074.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ040-
     041-047.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ026.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DC/26/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 301440 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
940 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
EXPECT ALONG/S OF THE BOUNDARY TO WARM EFFICIENTLY AS COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING AND POOLING OF MOISTURE AID IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER
90S AND HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB ABOVE 105 DEGREES...WITH AREAS IN THE W
MS DELTA AND NE LA TO CLIMB BETWEEN 111-115 DEGREES. EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING FOR W MS/NE LA AND HEAT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL 7PM TONIGHT. HWO/GRAPHICS LOOK GOOD AND NPW IS SHIPPED
OUT.

ALSO AS THE S/WV ALOFT MOVES IN PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PW`S IN
REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 1.7-2 INCH RANGE...HI-RES GUIDANCE
INCLUDING ARW/NMM AND SSEO INDICATE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE E/SE
MS. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 16-17Z AND LASTING
THROUGH 23-01Z. DUE TO SOME INVERTED V SOUNDING...STEEP 850-700MB
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6-7 DEG C/KM...0-3KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9 DEG C
AND VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND 27-29 DEG C...EXPECT MODERATE TO HIGH
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. WITH SOME NRLY FLOW ALOFT
AROUND 15-20KT ESPECIALLY IN E/SE MS...SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. TIMING IN GRAPHICS LOOKS GOOD
OVERALL BUT SOME STORMS COULD POSSIBLY LINGER PAST 6-7PM.

FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...ADJUSTED CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO
BLEND INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT SEEMS ON TRACK. REST LOOKS GOOD
OVERALL. REST OF THE PRODUCTS ARE SHIPPED OUT. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITH THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS
COMING FROM SCT TSRA. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD HAVE SOME
DAMAGING WINDS. WILL FOCUS THE TIMING OF THE VCTS IN THE 18-23Z
RANGE WITH BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF. WINDS WILL BE N/NE TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 20KTS.
/17/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...FOCUS AGAIN TODAY WILL BE THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME STORMS AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON...FEELING IS
THAT COVERAGE MAY BE LESS THAN PREV EXPECTED WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST HI-RES TRENDS AS WELL AS THE NAM/GFS. AS FOR THE
HEAT...THE AREA WILL BE LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT AND IN THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS. WHILE YESTERDAY OFFERED THE MOST OPTIMAL
ZONE TO REALLY HEAT UP...TODAY WILL BE QUITE GOOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE S HALF. MORE MID/UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. THE
DIFFERING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE REALLY HIGH DEW PTS. THESE WILL
HOLD IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL SERVE TO SUPPORT HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110 FOR NEARLY
ALL OF THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS (MAINLY W-CENTRAL) EXCEEDING
110. DUE TO THIS...WILL ADD AN AREA OF THE CWA TO A EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING.

AS FOR STORMS...SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREME TODAY WITH ALL
THE HIGH SFC DEW PTS. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO BE
VERY LIMITED DESPITE THE SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MID LEVEL S/WV WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND THE
MID LEVELS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MORE OF A FLAT RIDGE AXIS. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR A MORE HOSTILE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT DESPITE A
CONDUCIVE THERMO ENVIRONMENT. DUE TO THIS...HAVE LOWER POPS FROM THE
PREV FORECAST...BUT THEY STILL REMAIN IN THE 30-40% RANGE FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE CWA (S HALF). DESPITE SOME OF THE PRO/CONS...ENOUGH
INGREDIENTS WILL LIKELY EXIST TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE LIMITED THREAT FOR TODAY. TIMING WILL
MAINLY BE 2-6PM. LOOK FOR STORM ACTIVITY TO MOVE OFF TO THE SW.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUPPORT COOLER
TEMPS FOR FRI MORNING AS WELL AS SAT MORNING. NEARLY ALL GUID IS
OFFERING LOWER DEWPTS THAN THE PREV RUNS WHICH WILL SUPPORT MORE OF
AN OPPORTUNITY TO COOL DURING THE OVERNIGHTS. DUE TO THIS...HAVE
LEANED MORE ON THE LATEST MOS OUTPUT WHICH AS MORE OF THE CWA IN THE
UPPER 60S FOR LOW WITH A FEW MID 60 READINGS. HIGHS ON FRI WILL
AGAIN BE WARM...BUT MORE IN THE 92-95 DEGREE RANGE WHICH IS SOME 5
DEGREES LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING.

MOST OF TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRI-FRI NGT WILL BE PRECIP FREE AS
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR MOVES IN. LOOK FOR VERY ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR WITH
VALUES OF 1.0 IN OR LESS BY FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT. /CME/

LONG TERM...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...LIGHT MID LEVEL NW FLOW
REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AS RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED AND
BROAD TROFFINESS MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE... MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA FROM THE AIRMASS CHANGE THAT OCCURRED ON FRIDAY.

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BRING DRY
SLUGS OF DRY AIR SOUTHWARD. WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE EASILY ATTAINED...BUT WITH IT BEING MORE OF
A DRY HEAT...HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE AIR TEMP.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR
SE...HOWEVER...IN BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       97  71  94  69 /  34  10   0   0
MERIDIAN      95  69  93  66 /  42  10   1   0
VICKSBURG     99  70  95  66 /  29   6   0   0
HATTIESBURG   97  74  95  69 /  43  21  11   4
NATCHEZ       97  71  93  68 /  34  16   4   0
GREENVILLE    96  70  94  68 /  17   4   0   0
GREENWOOD     95  68  93  66 /  18   5   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ034>039-042>046-
     048>066-072>074.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ040-
     041-047.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ026.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DC/17/CME/26





000
FXUS64 KJAN 301440 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
940 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
EXPECT ALONG/S OF THE BOUNDARY TO WARM EFFICIENTLY AS COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING AND POOLING OF MOISTURE AID IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER
90S AND HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB ABOVE 105 DEGREES...WITH AREAS IN THE W
MS DELTA AND NE LA TO CLIMB BETWEEN 111-115 DEGREES. EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING FOR W MS/NE LA AND HEAT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL 7PM TONIGHT. HWO/GRAPHICS LOOK GOOD AND NPW IS SHIPPED
OUT.

ALSO AS THE S/WV ALOFT MOVES IN PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PW`S IN
REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 1.7-2 INCH RANGE...HI-RES GUIDANCE
INCLUDING ARW/NMM AND SSEO INDICATE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE E/SE
MS. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 16-17Z AND LASTING
THROUGH 23-01Z. DUE TO SOME INVERTED V SOUNDING...STEEP 850-700MB
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6-7 DEG C/KM...0-3KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9 DEG C
AND VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND 27-29 DEG C...EXPECT MODERATE TO HIGH
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. WITH SOME NRLY FLOW ALOFT
AROUND 15-20KT ESPECIALLY IN E/SE MS...SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. TIMING IN GRAPHICS LOOKS GOOD
OVERALL BUT SOME STORMS COULD POSSIBLY LINGER PAST 6-7PM.

FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...ADJUSTED CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO
BLEND INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT SEEMS ON TRACK. REST LOOKS GOOD
OVERALL. REST OF THE PRODUCTS ARE SHIPPED OUT. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITH THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS
COMING FROM SCT TSRA. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD HAVE SOME
DAMAGING WINDS. WILL FOCUS THE TIMING OF THE VCTS IN THE 18-23Z
RANGE WITH BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF. WINDS WILL BE N/NE TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 20KTS.
/17/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...FOCUS AGAIN TODAY WILL BE THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME STORMS AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON...FEELING IS
THAT COVERAGE MAY BE LESS THAN PREV EXPECTED WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST HI-RES TRENDS AS WELL AS THE NAM/GFS. AS FOR THE
HEAT...THE AREA WILL BE LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT AND IN THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS. WHILE YESTERDAY OFFERED THE MOST OPTIMAL
ZONE TO REALLY HEAT UP...TODAY WILL BE QUITE GOOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE S HALF. MORE MID/UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. THE
DIFFERING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE REALLY HIGH DEW PTS. THESE WILL
HOLD IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL SERVE TO SUPPORT HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110 FOR NEARLY
ALL OF THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS (MAINLY W-CENTRAL) EXCEEDING
110. DUE TO THIS...WILL ADD AN AREA OF THE CWA TO A EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING.

AS FOR STORMS...SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREME TODAY WITH ALL
THE HIGH SFC DEW PTS. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO BE
VERY LIMITED DESPITE THE SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MID LEVEL S/WV WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND THE
MID LEVELS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MORE OF A FLAT RIDGE AXIS. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR A MORE HOSTILE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT DESPITE A
CONDUCIVE THERMO ENVIRONMENT. DUE TO THIS...HAVE LOWER POPS FROM THE
PREV FORECAST...BUT THEY STILL REMAIN IN THE 30-40% RANGE FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE CWA (S HALF). DESPITE SOME OF THE PRO/CONS...ENOUGH
INGREDIENTS WILL LIKELY EXIST TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE LIMITED THREAT FOR TODAY. TIMING WILL
MAINLY BE 2-6PM. LOOK FOR STORM ACTIVITY TO MOVE OFF TO THE SW.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUPPORT COOLER
TEMPS FOR FRI MORNING AS WELL AS SAT MORNING. NEARLY ALL GUID IS
OFFERING LOWER DEWPTS THAN THE PREV RUNS WHICH WILL SUPPORT MORE OF
AN OPPORTUNITY TO COOL DURING THE OVERNIGHTS. DUE TO THIS...HAVE
LEANED MORE ON THE LATEST MOS OUTPUT WHICH AS MORE OF THE CWA IN THE
UPPER 60S FOR LOW WITH A FEW MID 60 READINGS. HIGHS ON FRI WILL
AGAIN BE WARM...BUT MORE IN THE 92-95 DEGREE RANGE WHICH IS SOME 5
DEGREES LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING.

MOST OF TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRI-FRI NGT WILL BE PRECIP FREE AS
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR MOVES IN. LOOK FOR VERY ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR WITH
VALUES OF 1.0 IN OR LESS BY FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT. /CME/

LONG TERM...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...LIGHT MID LEVEL NW FLOW
REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AS RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED AND
BROAD TROFFINESS MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE... MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA FROM THE AIRMASS CHANGE THAT OCCURRED ON FRIDAY.

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BRING DRY
SLUGS OF DRY AIR SOUTHWARD. WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE EASILY ATTAINED...BUT WITH IT BEING MORE OF
A DRY HEAT...HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE AIR TEMP.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR
SE...HOWEVER...IN BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       97  71  94  69 /  34  10   0   0
MERIDIAN      95  69  93  66 /  42  10   1   0
VICKSBURG     99  70  95  66 /  29   6   0   0
HATTIESBURG   97  74  95  69 /  43  21  11   4
NATCHEZ       97  71  93  68 /  34  16   4   0
GREENVILLE    96  70  94  68 /  17   4   0   0
GREENWOOD     95  68  93  66 /  18   5   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ034>039-042>046-
     048>066-072>074.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ040-
     041-047.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ026.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DC/17/CME/26





000
FXUS64 KJAN 301440 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
940 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
EXPECT ALONG/S OF THE BOUNDARY TO WARM EFFICIENTLY AS COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING AND POOLING OF MOISTURE AID IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER
90S AND HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB ABOVE 105 DEGREES...WITH AREAS IN THE W
MS DELTA AND NE LA TO CLIMB BETWEEN 111-115 DEGREES. EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING FOR W MS/NE LA AND HEAT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL 7PM TONIGHT. HWO/GRAPHICS LOOK GOOD AND NPW IS SHIPPED
OUT.

ALSO AS THE S/WV ALOFT MOVES IN PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PW`S IN
REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 1.7-2 INCH RANGE...HI-RES GUIDANCE
INCLUDING ARW/NMM AND SSEO INDICATE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE E/SE
MS. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 16-17Z AND LASTING
THROUGH 23-01Z. DUE TO SOME INVERTED V SOUNDING...STEEP 850-700MB
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6-7 DEG C/KM...0-3KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9 DEG C
AND VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND 27-29 DEG C...EXPECT MODERATE TO HIGH
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. WITH SOME NRLY FLOW ALOFT
AROUND 15-20KT ESPECIALLY IN E/SE MS...SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. TIMING IN GRAPHICS LOOKS GOOD
OVERALL BUT SOME STORMS COULD POSSIBLY LINGER PAST 6-7PM.

FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...ADJUSTED CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO
BLEND INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT SEEMS ON TRACK. REST LOOKS GOOD
OVERALL. REST OF THE PRODUCTS ARE SHIPPED OUT. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITH THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS
COMING FROM SCT TSRA. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD HAVE SOME
DAMAGING WINDS. WILL FOCUS THE TIMING OF THE VCTS IN THE 18-23Z
RANGE WITH BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH
HALF. WINDS WILL BE N/NE TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 20KTS.
/17/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...FOCUS AGAIN TODAY WILL BE THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME STORMS AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON...FEELING IS
THAT COVERAGE MAY BE LESS THAN PREV EXPECTED WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST HI-RES TRENDS AS WELL AS THE NAM/GFS. AS FOR THE
HEAT...THE AREA WILL BE LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT AND IN THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS. WHILE YESTERDAY OFFERED THE MOST OPTIMAL
ZONE TO REALLY HEAT UP...TODAY WILL BE QUITE GOOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE S HALF. MORE MID/UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. THE
DIFFERING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE REALLY HIGH DEW PTS. THESE WILL
HOLD IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL SERVE TO SUPPORT HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110 FOR NEARLY
ALL OF THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS (MAINLY W-CENTRAL) EXCEEDING
110. DUE TO THIS...WILL ADD AN AREA OF THE CWA TO A EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING.

AS FOR STORMS...SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREME TODAY WITH ALL
THE HIGH SFC DEW PTS. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO BE
VERY LIMITED DESPITE THE SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MID LEVEL S/WV WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND THE
MID LEVELS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MORE OF A FLAT RIDGE AXIS. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR A MORE HOSTILE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT DESPITE A
CONDUCIVE THERMO ENVIRONMENT. DUE TO THIS...HAVE LOWER POPS FROM THE
PREV FORECAST...BUT THEY STILL REMAIN IN THE 30-40% RANGE FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE CWA (S HALF). DESPITE SOME OF THE PRO/CONS...ENOUGH
INGREDIENTS WILL LIKELY EXIST TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE LIMITED THREAT FOR TODAY. TIMING WILL
MAINLY BE 2-6PM. LOOK FOR STORM ACTIVITY TO MOVE OFF TO THE SW.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUPPORT COOLER
TEMPS FOR FRI MORNING AS WELL AS SAT MORNING. NEARLY ALL GUID IS
OFFERING LOWER DEWPTS THAN THE PREV RUNS WHICH WILL SUPPORT MORE OF
AN OPPORTUNITY TO COOL DURING THE OVERNIGHTS. DUE TO THIS...HAVE
LEANED MORE ON THE LATEST MOS OUTPUT WHICH AS MORE OF THE CWA IN THE
UPPER 60S FOR LOW WITH A FEW MID 60 READINGS. HIGHS ON FRI WILL
AGAIN BE WARM...BUT MORE IN THE 92-95 DEGREE RANGE WHICH IS SOME 5
DEGREES LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING.

MOST OF TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRI-FRI NGT WILL BE PRECIP FREE AS
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR MOVES IN. LOOK FOR VERY ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR WITH
VALUES OF 1.0 IN OR LESS BY FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT. /CME/

LONG TERM...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...LIGHT MID LEVEL NW FLOW
REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AS RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED AND
BROAD TROFFINESS MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE... MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA FROM THE AIRMASS CHANGE THAT OCCURRED ON FRIDAY.

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BRING DRY
SLUGS OF DRY AIR SOUTHWARD. WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE EASILY ATTAINED...BUT WITH IT BEING MORE OF
A DRY HEAT...HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE AIR TEMP.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR
SE...HOWEVER...IN BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       97  71  94  69 /  34  10   0   0
MERIDIAN      95  69  93  66 /  42  10   1   0
VICKSBURG     99  70  95  66 /  29   6   0   0
HATTIESBURG   97  74  95  69 /  43  21  11   4
NATCHEZ       97  71  93  68 /  34  16   4   0
GREENVILLE    96  70  94  68 /  17   4   0   0
GREENWOOD     95  68  93  66 /  18   5   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ034>039-042>046-
     048>066-072>074.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ040-
     041-047.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ026.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DC/17/CME/26




000
FXUS64 KJAN 300907
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
407 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOCUS AGAIN TODAY WILL BE THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME STORMS AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON...FEELING IS
THAT COVERAGE MAY BE LESS THAN PREV EXPECTED WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST HI-RES TRENDS AS WELL AS THE NAM/GFS. AS FOR THE
HEAT...THE AREA WILL BE LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT AND IN THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS. WHILE YESTERDAY OFFERED THE MOST OPTIMAL
ZONE TO REALLY HEAT UP...TODAY WILL BE QUITE GOOD...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE S HALF. MORE MID/UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. THE
DIFFERING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE REALLY HIGH DEW PTS. THESE WILL
HOLD IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL SERVE TO SUPPORT HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110 FOR NEARLY
ALL OF THE AREA WITH SOME LOCATIONS (MAINLY W-CENTRAL) EXCEEDING
110. DUE TO THIS...WILL ADD AN AREA OF THE CWA TO A EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING.

AS FOR STORMS...SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREME TODAY WITH ALL
THE HIGH SFC DEW PTS. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO BE
VERY LIMITED DESPITE THE SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MID LEVEL S/WV WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND THE
MID LEVELS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MORE OF A FLAT RIDGE AXIS. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR A MORE HOSTILE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT DESPITE A
CONDUCIVE THERMO ENVIRONMENT. DUE TO THIS...HAVE LOWER POPS FROM THE
PREV FORECAST...BUT THEY STILL REMAIN IN THE 30-40% RANGE FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE CWA (S HALF). DESPITE SOME OF THE PRO/CONS...ENOUGH
INGREDIENTS WILL LIKELY EXIST TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE LIMITED THREAT FOR TODAY. TIMING WILL
MAINLY BE 2-6PM. LOOK FOR STORM ACTIVITY TO MOVE OFF TO THE SW.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUPPORT COOLER
TEMPS FOR FRI MORNING AS WELL AS SAT MORNING. NEARLY ALL GUID IS
OFFERING LOWER DEWPTS THAN THE PREV RUNS WHICH WILL SUPPORT MORE OF
AN OPPORTUNITY TO COOL DURING THE OVERNIGHTS. DUE TO THIS...HAVE
LEANED MORE ON THE LATEST MOS OUTPUT WHICH AS MORE OF THE CWA IN THE
UPPER 60S FOR LOW WITH A FEW MID 60 READINGS. HIGHS ON FRI WILL
AGAIN BE WARM...BUT MORE IN THE 92-95 DEGREE RANGE WHICH IS SOME 5
DEGREES LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING.

MOST OF TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRI-FRI NGT WILL BE PRECIP FREE AS
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR MOVES IN. LOOK FOR VERY ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR WITH
VALUES OF 1.0 IN OR LESS BY FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT. /CME/

.LONG TERM...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...LIGHT MID LEVEL NW FLOW REGIME WILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AS RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED AND BROAD
TROFFINESS MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
FROM THE AIRMASS CHANGE THAT OCCURRED ON FRIDAY.

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME. THE DRY AIR WILLCONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BRING DRY
SLUGS OF DIRY AIR SOUTHWARD. WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE EASILY ATTAINED...BUT WITH IT BEING MORE
OF A DRY HEAT...HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE AIR
TEMP.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR
SE...HOWEVER...IN BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITH THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS
COMING FROM SCT TSRA. WILL FOCUS THE TIMING OF THE VCTS IN THE 18-
22Z RANGE WITH BETTER POTENTIAL TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTH HALF. WINDS WILL BE N/NE TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING
20KTS. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       97  71  94  69 /  34  10   0   0
MERIDIAN      95  69  93  66 /  42  10   1   0
VICKSBURG     99  70  95  66 /  29   6   0   0
HATTIESBURG   97  74  95  69 /  43  21  11   4
NATCHEZ       97  71  93  68 /  34  16   4   0
GREENVILLE    96  70  94  68 /  17   4   0   0
GREENWOOD     95  68  93  66 /  18   5   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ034>039-042>046-
     048>066-072>074.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ040-
     041-047.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ026.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

CME/26/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 300153 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
853 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE... ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS OCCURRED ACROSS EASTERN MS WHILE MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-55 WERE SCARCELY THREATENED BY RAIN. MORE UBIQUITOUS WAS
THE HEAT...BUT WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE MANY
PEOPLE ACROSS THE REGION COULD BE SOMEWHAT ACCUSTOMED TO THAT.

THE DISTURBANCE FLOWING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE DASTARDLY
UPPER RIDGE HELPED FUEL THE STORMS RUNNING AMOK THROUGH THE EASTERN
HALF OF MS TODAY...BUT MOST OF THOSE STORMS ARE NOW SHIFTING DOWN
TOWARD THE COAST.  A COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING DOWN TOWARD THE
REGION IS KICKING UP SOME SCATTERED STORMS RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY...AND THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF
THIS ACTIVITY TO PIVOT SOUTH INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...I THINK THIS SOLUTION IS OVERLY OPTIMISTIC GIVEN
PREDOMINATE RIDGING ALOFT...ALTHOUGH I DID LEAVE SOME 20 POPS LATE
TONIGHT IN AT LEAST EASTERN MS WHERE IT IS PLAUSIBLE FESTERING
INSTABILITY AND A VERY WEAK RIDGE-ROUNDING DISTURBANCE COULD
CATALYZE INTO A SMALL BIT OF PRECIP.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
INCOMING FRONT WILL COME TOMORROW...AND THIS IS REPRESENTED WELL
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALTHOUGH NEAR-
DAWN BRIEF MVFR CATS OR A LATE NIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
GWO/CBM/GTR/NMM/MEI/PIB/HBG. TOMORROW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MS AND SOUTH OF
I-20. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND PERHAPS EVEN A
LITTLE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY UP AROUND THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF HOT TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GREATER THAN 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING FOR QUITE SOME TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE
THAT TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
HOT...WITH HEAT INDICES CLIMBING FROM 106-110 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BUILD SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLENTIFUL ON THURSDAY WITH PWATS
UP CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. WILL INTRODUCE A
LIMITED AREA FOR SEVERE FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR.

THE BOUNDARY WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
..USHERING SOME DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH PWATS
FALLING TO AROUND 1.0-1.2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A COUPLE
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE RAIN FREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. /15/

LONG TERM...LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO OFFER A STEADY SOLUTION FOR THE MED RANGE/LONG TERM. BY
FRI...THE PATTERN WILL HAVE ADJUSTED SOME WITH THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND OUR CWA WILL BE SITUATED MORE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. WHAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT IN THE PREV DAYS FORECASTS IS A
WEAK SFC FRONT PUSHING WELL INTO THE CWA BY FRI AND BRINGING DRIER
AIR TO THE REGION REMAINS ON TRACK. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWER HUMIDITY
FRI-MON WITH SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS (UPPER 60S FOR N HALF). THE
DEEP DRY AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL AND ONLY LOW END CHANCES
10-20% ARE BEING ADVERTISED OVER THE FAR SE. WITH RELIEF FROM THE
HUMIDITY...ONE MIGHT THINK TEMPS WILL BE COOLER. THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE. INITIALLY HIGHS MAY BE 2-3 LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...BUT MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD MORE UPPER
90S FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY ARISE DUE TO
THE LOWER RH VALUES...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  97  75  94 /  14  47  14   6
MERIDIAN      72  96  73  92 /  16  57  25  13
VICKSBURG     75  99  73  95 /  12  39  12   4
HATTIESBURG   74  97  76  94 /  15  62  41  26
NATCHEZ       76  98  74  93 /  16  46  22  12
GREENVILLE    78  96  71  93 /  14  19   7   0
GREENWOOD     76  96  70  93 /  17  21   8   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ034>066-072>074.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

BB/15/CME




000
FXUS64 KJAN 300153 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
853 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE... ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS OCCURRED ACROSS EASTERN MS WHILE MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-55 WERE SCARCELY THREATENED BY RAIN. MORE UBIQUITOUS WAS
THE HEAT...BUT WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE MANY
PEOPLE ACROSS THE REGION COULD BE SOMEWHAT ACCUSTOMED TO THAT.

THE DISTURBANCE FLOWING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE DASTARDLY
UPPER RIDGE HELPED FUEL THE STORMS RUNNING AMOK THROUGH THE EASTERN
HALF OF MS TODAY...BUT MOST OF THOSE STORMS ARE NOW SHIFTING DOWN
TOWARD THE COAST.  A COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING DOWN TOWARD THE
REGION IS KICKING UP SOME SCATTERED STORMS RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY...AND THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF
THIS ACTIVITY TO PIVOT SOUTH INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...I THINK THIS SOLUTION IS OVERLY OPTIMISTIC GIVEN
PREDOMINATE RIDGING ALOFT...ALTHOUGH I DID LEAVE SOME 20 POPS LATE
TONIGHT IN AT LEAST EASTERN MS WHERE IT IS PLAUSIBLE FESTERING
INSTABILITY AND A VERY WEAK RIDGE-ROUNDING DISTURBANCE COULD
CATALYZE INTO A SMALL BIT OF PRECIP.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
INCOMING FRONT WILL COME TOMORROW...AND THIS IS REPRESENTED WELL
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALTHOUGH NEAR-
DAWN BRIEF MVFR CATS OR A LATE NIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
GWO/CBM/GTR/NMM/MEI/PIB/HBG. TOMORROW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MS AND SOUTH OF
I-20. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND PERHAPS EVEN A
LITTLE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY UP AROUND THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF HOT TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GREATER THAN 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING FOR QUITE SOME TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE
THAT TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
HOT...WITH HEAT INDICES CLIMBING FROM 106-110 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BUILD SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLENTIFUL ON THURSDAY WITH PWATS
UP CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. WILL INTRODUCE A
LIMITED AREA FOR SEVERE FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR.

THE BOUNDARY WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
..USHERING SOME DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH PWATS
FALLING TO AROUND 1.0-1.2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A COUPLE
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE RAIN FREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. /15/

LONG TERM...LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO OFFER A STEADY SOLUTION FOR THE MED RANGE/LONG TERM. BY
FRI...THE PATTERN WILL HAVE ADJUSTED SOME WITH THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND OUR CWA WILL BE SITUATED MORE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. WHAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT IN THE PREV DAYS FORECASTS IS A
WEAK SFC FRONT PUSHING WELL INTO THE CWA BY FRI AND BRINGING DRIER
AIR TO THE REGION REMAINS ON TRACK. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWER HUMIDITY
FRI-MON WITH SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS (UPPER 60S FOR N HALF). THE
DEEP DRY AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL AND ONLY LOW END CHANCES
10-20% ARE BEING ADVERTISED OVER THE FAR SE. WITH RELIEF FROM THE
HUMIDITY...ONE MIGHT THINK TEMPS WILL BE COOLER. THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE. INITIALLY HIGHS MAY BE 2-3 LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...BUT MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD MORE UPPER
90S FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY ARISE DUE TO
THE LOWER RH VALUES...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  97  75  94 /  14  47  14   6
MERIDIAN      72  96  73  92 /  16  57  25  13
VICKSBURG     75  99  73  95 /  12  39  12   4
HATTIESBURG   74  97  76  94 /  15  62  41  26
NATCHEZ       76  98  74  93 /  16  46  22  12
GREENVILLE    78  96  71  93 /  14  19   7   0
GREENWOOD     76  96  70  93 /  17  21   8   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ034>066-072>074.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

BB/15/CME





000
FXUS64 KJAN 292032
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF HOT TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GREATER THAN 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING FOR QUITE SOME TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE
THAT TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
HOT...WITH HEAT INDICES CLIMBING FROM 106-110 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BUILD SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLENTIFUL ON THURSDAY WITH PWATS
UP CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. WILL INTRODUCE A
LIMITED AREA FOR SEVERE FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR.

THE BOUNDARY WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
...USHERING SOME DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH PWATS
FALLING TO AROUND 1.0-1.2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A COUPLE
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE RAIN FREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. /15/

.LONG TERM...LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO OFFER A STEADY SOLUTION FOR THE MED RANGE/LONG TERM. BY
FRI...THE PATTERN WILL HAVE ADJUSTED SOME WITH THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND OUR CWA WILL BE SITUATED MORE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. WHAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT IN THE PREV DAYS FORECASTS IS A
WEAK SFC FRONT PUSHING WELL INTO THE CWA BY FRI AND BRINGING DRIER
AIR TO THE REGION REMAINS ON TRACK. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWER HUMIDITY
FRI-MON WITH SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS (UPPER 60S FOR N HALF). THE
DEEP DRY AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL AND ONLY LOW END CHANCES
10-20% ARE BEING ADVERTISED OVER THE FAR SE. WITH RELIEF FROM THE
HUMIDITY...ONE MIGHT THINK TEMPS WILL BE COOLER. THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE. INITIALLY HIGHS MAY BE 2-3 LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...BUT MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD MORE UPPER
90S FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY ARISE DUE TO
THE LOWER RH VALUES...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT DAYS AT TERMINALS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-55. THIS ACTIVITY COULD BRING QUICK CIG/VISBY
REDUCTIONS AND POTENTIALLY A STRONG GUST OF WIND. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 01Z. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER 09Z IN THE EAST BEFORE LIFTING BY 12Z.
/17/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       75  97  75  94 /  26  47  14   6
MERIDIAN      73  96  73  92 /  33  57  25  13
VICKSBURG     75  99  73  95 /  21  39  12   4
HATTIESBURG   74  97  76  94 /  36  62  41  26
NATCHEZ       76  98  74  93 /  25  46  22  12
GREENVILLE    78  96  71  93 /  16  24   7   0
GREENWOOD     75  96  70  93 /  18  29   8   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ036>039-042>066-
     072>074.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ025>033.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-
     019-034-035-040-041.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     MSZ034-035-040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ016-023>026.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     LAZ007>009-015.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-
     075.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

15/JAN/19




000
FXUS64 KJAN 292032
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF HOT TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GREATER THAN 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING FOR QUITE SOME TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE
THAT TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
HOT...WITH HEAT INDICES CLIMBING FROM 106-110 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BUILD SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLENTIFUL ON THURSDAY WITH PWATS
UP CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. WILL INTRODUCE A
LIMITED AREA FOR SEVERE FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR.

THE BOUNDARY WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
...USHERING SOME DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH PWATS
FALLING TO AROUND 1.0-1.2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A COUPLE
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE RAIN FREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. /15/

.LONG TERM...LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO OFFER A STEADY SOLUTION FOR THE MED RANGE/LONG TERM. BY
FRI...THE PATTERN WILL HAVE ADJUSTED SOME WITH THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND OUR CWA WILL BE SITUATED MORE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. WHAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT IN THE PREV DAYS FORECASTS IS A
WEAK SFC FRONT PUSHING WELL INTO THE CWA BY FRI AND BRINGING DRIER
AIR TO THE REGION REMAINS ON TRACK. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWER HUMIDITY
FRI-MON WITH SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS (UPPER 60S FOR N HALF). THE
DEEP DRY AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL AND ONLY LOW END CHANCES
10-20% ARE BEING ADVERTISED OVER THE FAR SE. WITH RELIEF FROM THE
HUMIDITY...ONE MIGHT THINK TEMPS WILL BE COOLER. THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE. INITIALLY HIGHS MAY BE 2-3 LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...BUT MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD MORE UPPER
90S FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY ARISE DUE TO
THE LOWER RH VALUES...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT DAYS AT TERMINALS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-55. THIS ACTIVITY COULD BRING QUICK CIG/VISBY
REDUCTIONS AND POTENTIALLY A STRONG GUST OF WIND. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 01Z. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER 09Z IN THE EAST BEFORE LIFTING BY 12Z.
/17/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       75  97  75  94 /  26  47  14   6
MERIDIAN      73  96  73  92 /  33  57  25  13
VICKSBURG     75  99  73  95 /  21  39  12   4
HATTIESBURG   74  97  76  94 /  36  62  41  26
NATCHEZ       76  98  74  93 /  25  46  22  12
GREENVILLE    78  96  71  93 /  16  24   7   0
GREENWOOD     75  96  70  93 /  18  29   8   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ036>039-042>066-
     072>074.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ025>033.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-
     019-034-035-040-041.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     MSZ034-035-040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ016-023>026.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     LAZ007>009-015.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-
     075.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

15/JAN/19





000
FXUS64 KJAN 291445
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
945 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING AND HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ALONG AND TO THE EAST
OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR TODAY. OUR MORNING MICROBURST CHECKLIST
INDICATES CHANCE FOR SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE AREAS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE
GRAPHICASTS AND HWO. EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DELTA AND A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER MAY HELP COOL THINGS OFF AT
LEAST IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK
AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME./15/

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...FINALLY THE STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND A COLD FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. WE`RE OFF TO ANOTHER WARM START THIS MORNING, WITH
DEWPOINTS HANGING UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT, A SMALL
TSTORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED FROM AROUND THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY QUICKLY WEAKENED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER NORTH AL AT THIS POINT.

HEADING THROUGH THE DAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMED FOR INCREASED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE THERE`S AN AXIS OF INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE
BIGGEST FORECAST QUANDARY IS HOW EARLY CONVECTION WILL INITIATE.
SEVERAL HIGH RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS CAN BE DISCOUNTED, AS THEY DEPICTED
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING, BIASING THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. GUIDANCE THAT HANDLED THIS
ACTIVITY MORE CORRECTLY TENDED TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER
NORTH AL MID/LATE MORNING, SPREADING SOUTH/WESTWARD INTO THE CWA
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH IMPROVING NORTH-SOUTH FLOW AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY, WE STILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE POTENT
CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OUTLOOK FOR LIMITED SEVERE STORM THREAT FOR TODAY.

THURSDAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST ACROSS THE REGION AS
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PW`S ARE FORECAST
TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
ADDITIONAL WEAK UPPER WAVES PASSING BY. GIVEN THIS, WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE POPS WHICH SEEMED RATHER LOW, INCLUDING LIKELY POPS IN SOME
SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE COULD AGAIN BE A FEW POTENT STORMS IN THE AREA,
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON OUTLINING A SEVERE RISK PENDING QUESTIONS AROUND
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE CWA WILL BEGIN TO
EXPERIENCE THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE 60S IN THE NORTH, WITH LOW TEMPS ALSO
TRENDING DOWNWARD CLOSER TO 70.

IN SPITE OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AN ISSUE TODAY. IN FACT, THE POOLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONLY
ESCALATE CONCERNS AS IT WILL KEEP UP DEWPOINTS LEADING TO HIGHER
HEAT INDICES DURING THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
CONVECTION TO DISRUPT HEATING AROUND THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND HWY 45
CORRIDOR EARLIER IN THE DAY, BUT CURRENTLY WE EXPECT MOST RAIN/
CLOUDS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THESE FACTORS,
THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA,
AND THE EXISTING EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE KEPT IN TACT.
CURRENT FORECASTS FOR THURSDAY WOULD WARRANT AN EXPANSION OF
ADVISORIES IN TIME, BUT AS QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE TIMING OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP, WILL DEFER ANY SUCH EXTENSION TO LATER SHIFTS.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION BMX/SHV/LZK/MEG. /DL/

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO OFFER A STEADY SOLUTION FOR THE MED RANGE/LONG TERM. BY FRI...THE
PATTERN WILL HAVE ADJUSTED SOME WITH THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
TO OUR WEST AND OUR CWA WILL BE SITUATED MORE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. WHAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT IN THE PREV DAYS FORECASTS IS A
WEAK SFC FRONT PUSHING WELL INTO THE CWA BY FRI AND BRINGING DRIER
AIR TO THE REGION REMAINS ON TRACK. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWER HUMIDITY
FRI-MON WITH SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS (UPPER 60S FOR N HALF). THE
DEEP DRY AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL AND ONLY LOW END CHANCES
10-20% ARE BEING ADVERTISED OVER THE FAR SE. WITH RELIEF FROM THE
HUMIDITY...ONE MIGHT THINK TEMPS WILL BE COOLER. THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE. INITIALLY HIGHS MAY BE 2-3 LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...BUT MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD MORE UPPER
90S FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY ARISE DUE TO
THE LOWER RH VALUES...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE PREVALENT THAN IN
RECENT DAYS AT TERMINALS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-55. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD BRING QUICK CIG/VISBY REDUCTIONS AND POTENTIALLY A
STRONG GUST OF WIND. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
AFTER 01Z./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       98  75  97  75 /  30  26  47  14
MERIDIAN      96  73  95  73 /  44  33  57  25
VICKSBURG     98  75  97  73 /  19  21  39  12
HATTIESBURG   96  74  96  76 /  44  36  62  41
NATCHEZ       95  76  96  74 /  21  25  46  22
GREENVILLE    98  78  95  71 /  16  16  24   7
GREENWOOD     98  75  95  70 /  28  18  29   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ025>033-036>039-
     042>066-072>074.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-
     019-034-035-040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ016-023>026.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-
     075.

&&

$$

DL/CME




000
FXUS64 KJAN 291445
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
945 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING AND HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ALONG AND TO THE EAST
OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR TODAY. OUR MORNING MICROBURST CHECKLIST
INDICATES CHANCE FOR SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE AREAS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE
GRAPHICASTS AND HWO. EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DELTA AND A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER MAY HELP COOL THINGS OFF AT
LEAST IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK
AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME./15/

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...FINALLY THE STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND A COLD FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. WE`RE OFF TO ANOTHER WARM START THIS MORNING, WITH
DEWPOINTS HANGING UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT, A SMALL
TSTORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED FROM AROUND THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY QUICKLY WEAKENED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER NORTH AL AT THIS POINT.

HEADING THROUGH THE DAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMED FOR INCREASED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE THERE`S AN AXIS OF INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE
BIGGEST FORECAST QUANDARY IS HOW EARLY CONVECTION WILL INITIATE.
SEVERAL HIGH RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS CAN BE DISCOUNTED, AS THEY DEPICTED
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING, BIASING THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. GUIDANCE THAT HANDLED THIS
ACTIVITY MORE CORRECTLY TENDED TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER
NORTH AL MID/LATE MORNING, SPREADING SOUTH/WESTWARD INTO THE CWA
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH IMPROVING NORTH-SOUTH FLOW AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY, WE STILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE POTENT
CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OUTLOOK FOR LIMITED SEVERE STORM THREAT FOR TODAY.

THURSDAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST ACROSS THE REGION AS
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PW`S ARE FORECAST
TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
ADDITIONAL WEAK UPPER WAVES PASSING BY. GIVEN THIS, WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE POPS WHICH SEEMED RATHER LOW, INCLUDING LIKELY POPS IN SOME
SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE COULD AGAIN BE A FEW POTENT STORMS IN THE AREA,
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON OUTLINING A SEVERE RISK PENDING QUESTIONS AROUND
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE CWA WILL BEGIN TO
EXPERIENCE THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE 60S IN THE NORTH, WITH LOW TEMPS ALSO
TRENDING DOWNWARD CLOSER TO 70.

IN SPITE OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AN ISSUE TODAY. IN FACT, THE POOLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONLY
ESCALATE CONCERNS AS IT WILL KEEP UP DEWPOINTS LEADING TO HIGHER
HEAT INDICES DURING THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
CONVECTION TO DISRUPT HEATING AROUND THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND HWY 45
CORRIDOR EARLIER IN THE DAY, BUT CURRENTLY WE EXPECT MOST RAIN/
CLOUDS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THESE FACTORS,
THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA,
AND THE EXISTING EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE KEPT IN TACT.
CURRENT FORECASTS FOR THURSDAY WOULD WARRANT AN EXPANSION OF
ADVISORIES IN TIME, BUT AS QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE TIMING OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP, WILL DEFER ANY SUCH EXTENSION TO LATER SHIFTS.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION BMX/SHV/LZK/MEG. /DL/

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO OFFER A STEADY SOLUTION FOR THE MED RANGE/LONG TERM. BY FRI...THE
PATTERN WILL HAVE ADJUSTED SOME WITH THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
TO OUR WEST AND OUR CWA WILL BE SITUATED MORE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. WHAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT IN THE PREV DAYS FORECASTS IS A
WEAK SFC FRONT PUSHING WELL INTO THE CWA BY FRI AND BRINGING DRIER
AIR TO THE REGION REMAINS ON TRACK. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWER HUMIDITY
FRI-MON WITH SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS (UPPER 60S FOR N HALF). THE
DEEP DRY AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL AND ONLY LOW END CHANCES
10-20% ARE BEING ADVERTISED OVER THE FAR SE. WITH RELIEF FROM THE
HUMIDITY...ONE MIGHT THINK TEMPS WILL BE COOLER. THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE. INITIALLY HIGHS MAY BE 2-3 LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...BUT MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD MORE UPPER
90S FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY ARISE DUE TO
THE LOWER RH VALUES...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE PREVALENT THAN IN
RECENT DAYS AT TERMINALS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-55. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD BRING QUICK CIG/VISBY REDUCTIONS AND POTENTIALLY A
STRONG GUST OF WIND. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
AFTER 01Z./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       98  75  97  75 /  30  26  47  14
MERIDIAN      96  73  95  73 /  44  33  57  25
VICKSBURG     98  75  97  73 /  19  21  39  12
HATTIESBURG   96  74  96  76 /  44  36  62  41
NATCHEZ       95  76  96  74 /  21  25  46  22
GREENVILLE    98  78  95  71 /  16  16  24   7
GREENWOOD     98  75  95  70 /  28  18  29   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ025>033-036>039-
     042>066-072>074.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-
     019-034-035-040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ016-023>026.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-
     075.

&&

$$

DL/CME





000
FXUS64 KJAN 291445
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
945 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING AND HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ALONG AND TO THE EAST
OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR TODAY. OUR MORNING MICROBURST CHECKLIST
INDICATES CHANCE FOR SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE AREAS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE
GRAPHICASTS AND HWO. EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DELTA AND A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER MAY HELP COOL THINGS OFF AT
LEAST IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK
AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME./15/

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...FINALLY THE STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND A COLD FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. WE`RE OFF TO ANOTHER WARM START THIS MORNING, WITH
DEWPOINTS HANGING UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT, A SMALL
TSTORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED FROM AROUND THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY QUICKLY WEAKENED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER NORTH AL AT THIS POINT.

HEADING THROUGH THE DAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMED FOR INCREASED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE THERE`S AN AXIS OF INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE
BIGGEST FORECAST QUANDARY IS HOW EARLY CONVECTION WILL INITIATE.
SEVERAL HIGH RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS CAN BE DISCOUNTED, AS THEY DEPICTED
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING, BIASING THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. GUIDANCE THAT HANDLED THIS
ACTIVITY MORE CORRECTLY TENDED TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER
NORTH AL MID/LATE MORNING, SPREADING SOUTH/WESTWARD INTO THE CWA
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH IMPROVING NORTH-SOUTH FLOW AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY, WE STILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE POTENT
CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OUTLOOK FOR LIMITED SEVERE STORM THREAT FOR TODAY.

THURSDAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST ACROSS THE REGION AS
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PW`S ARE FORECAST
TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
ADDITIONAL WEAK UPPER WAVES PASSING BY. GIVEN THIS, WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE POPS WHICH SEEMED RATHER LOW, INCLUDING LIKELY POPS IN SOME
SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE COULD AGAIN BE A FEW POTENT STORMS IN THE AREA,
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON OUTLINING A SEVERE RISK PENDING QUESTIONS AROUND
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE CWA WILL BEGIN TO
EXPERIENCE THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE 60S IN THE NORTH, WITH LOW TEMPS ALSO
TRENDING DOWNWARD CLOSER TO 70.

IN SPITE OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AN ISSUE TODAY. IN FACT, THE POOLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONLY
ESCALATE CONCERNS AS IT WILL KEEP UP DEWPOINTS LEADING TO HIGHER
HEAT INDICES DURING THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
CONVECTION TO DISRUPT HEATING AROUND THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND HWY 45
CORRIDOR EARLIER IN THE DAY, BUT CURRENTLY WE EXPECT MOST RAIN/
CLOUDS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THESE FACTORS,
THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA,
AND THE EXISTING EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE KEPT IN TACT.
CURRENT FORECASTS FOR THURSDAY WOULD WARRANT AN EXPANSION OF
ADVISORIES IN TIME, BUT AS QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE TIMING OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP, WILL DEFER ANY SUCH EXTENSION TO LATER SHIFTS.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION BMX/SHV/LZK/MEG. /DL/

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO OFFER A STEADY SOLUTION FOR THE MED RANGE/LONG TERM. BY FRI...THE
PATTERN WILL HAVE ADJUSTED SOME WITH THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
TO OUR WEST AND OUR CWA WILL BE SITUATED MORE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. WHAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT IN THE PREV DAYS FORECASTS IS A
WEAK SFC FRONT PUSHING WELL INTO THE CWA BY FRI AND BRINGING DRIER
AIR TO THE REGION REMAINS ON TRACK. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWER HUMIDITY
FRI-MON WITH SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS (UPPER 60S FOR N HALF). THE
DEEP DRY AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL AND ONLY LOW END CHANCES
10-20% ARE BEING ADVERTISED OVER THE FAR SE. WITH RELIEF FROM THE
HUMIDITY...ONE MIGHT THINK TEMPS WILL BE COOLER. THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE. INITIALLY HIGHS MAY BE 2-3 LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...BUT MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD MORE UPPER
90S FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY ARISE DUE TO
THE LOWER RH VALUES...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE PREVALENT THAN IN
RECENT DAYS AT TERMINALS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-55. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD BRING QUICK CIG/VISBY REDUCTIONS AND POTENTIALLY A
STRONG GUST OF WIND. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
AFTER 01Z./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       98  75  97  75 /  30  26  47  14
MERIDIAN      96  73  95  73 /  44  33  57  25
VICKSBURG     98  75  97  73 /  19  21  39  12
HATTIESBURG   96  74  96  76 /  44  36  62  41
NATCHEZ       95  76  96  74 /  21  25  46  22
GREENVILLE    98  78  95  71 /  16  16  24   7
GREENWOOD     98  75  95  70 /  28  18  29   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ025>033-036>039-
     042>066-072>074.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-
     019-034-035-040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ016-023>026.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-
     075.

&&

$$

DL/CME




000
FXUS64 KJAN 291445
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
945 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING AND HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ALONG AND TO THE EAST
OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR TODAY. OUR MORNING MICROBURST CHECKLIST
INDICATES CHANCE FOR SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE AREAS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE
GRAPHICASTS AND HWO. EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DELTA AND A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER MAY HELP COOL THINGS OFF AT
LEAST IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK
AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME./15/

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...FINALLY THE STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND A COLD FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. WE`RE OFF TO ANOTHER WARM START THIS MORNING, WITH
DEWPOINTS HANGING UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT, A SMALL
TSTORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED FROM AROUND THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY QUICKLY WEAKENED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER NORTH AL AT THIS POINT.

HEADING THROUGH THE DAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMED FOR INCREASED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE THERE`S AN AXIS OF INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE
BIGGEST FORECAST QUANDARY IS HOW EARLY CONVECTION WILL INITIATE.
SEVERAL HIGH RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS CAN BE DISCOUNTED, AS THEY DEPICTED
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING, BIASING THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. GUIDANCE THAT HANDLED THIS
ACTIVITY MORE CORRECTLY TENDED TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER
NORTH AL MID/LATE MORNING, SPREADING SOUTH/WESTWARD INTO THE CWA
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH IMPROVING NORTH-SOUTH FLOW AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY, WE STILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE POTENT
CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OUTLOOK FOR LIMITED SEVERE STORM THREAT FOR TODAY.

THURSDAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST ACROSS THE REGION AS
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PW`S ARE FORECAST
TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
ADDITIONAL WEAK UPPER WAVES PASSING BY. GIVEN THIS, WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE POPS WHICH SEEMED RATHER LOW, INCLUDING LIKELY POPS IN SOME
SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE COULD AGAIN BE A FEW POTENT STORMS IN THE AREA,
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON OUTLINING A SEVERE RISK PENDING QUESTIONS AROUND
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE CWA WILL BEGIN TO
EXPERIENCE THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE 60S IN THE NORTH, WITH LOW TEMPS ALSO
TRENDING DOWNWARD CLOSER TO 70.

IN SPITE OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AN ISSUE TODAY. IN FACT, THE POOLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONLY
ESCALATE CONCERNS AS IT WILL KEEP UP DEWPOINTS LEADING TO HIGHER
HEAT INDICES DURING THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
CONVECTION TO DISRUPT HEATING AROUND THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND HWY 45
CORRIDOR EARLIER IN THE DAY, BUT CURRENTLY WE EXPECT MOST RAIN/
CLOUDS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THESE FACTORS,
THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA,
AND THE EXISTING EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE KEPT IN TACT.
CURRENT FORECASTS FOR THURSDAY WOULD WARRANT AN EXPANSION OF
ADVISORIES IN TIME, BUT AS QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE TIMING OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP, WILL DEFER ANY SUCH EXTENSION TO LATER SHIFTS.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION BMX/SHV/LZK/MEG. /DL/

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO OFFER A STEADY SOLUTION FOR THE MED RANGE/LONG TERM. BY FRI...THE
PATTERN WILL HAVE ADJUSTED SOME WITH THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
TO OUR WEST AND OUR CWA WILL BE SITUATED MORE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. WHAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT IN THE PREV DAYS FORECASTS IS A
WEAK SFC FRONT PUSHING WELL INTO THE CWA BY FRI AND BRINGING DRIER
AIR TO THE REGION REMAINS ON TRACK. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWER HUMIDITY
FRI-MON WITH SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS (UPPER 60S FOR N HALF). THE
DEEP DRY AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL AND ONLY LOW END CHANCES
10-20% ARE BEING ADVERTISED OVER THE FAR SE. WITH RELIEF FROM THE
HUMIDITY...ONE MIGHT THINK TEMPS WILL BE COOLER. THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE. INITIALLY HIGHS MAY BE 2-3 LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...BUT MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD MORE UPPER
90S FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY ARISE DUE TO
THE LOWER RH VALUES...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE PREVALENT THAN IN
RECENT DAYS AT TERMINALS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-55. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD BRING QUICK CIG/VISBY REDUCTIONS AND POTENTIALLY A
STRONG GUST OF WIND. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
AFTER 01Z./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       98  75  97  75 /  30  26  47  14
MERIDIAN      96  73  95  73 /  44  33  57  25
VICKSBURG     98  75  97  73 /  19  21  39  12
HATTIESBURG   96  74  96  76 /  44  36  62  41
NATCHEZ       95  76  96  74 /  21  25  46  22
GREENVILLE    98  78  95  71 /  16  16  24   7
GREENWOOD     98  75  95  70 /  28  18  29   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ025>033-036>039-
     042>066-072>074.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-
     019-034-035-040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ016-023>026.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-
     075.

&&

$$

DL/CME





000
FXUS64 KJAN 290923
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
423 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...FINALLY THE STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND A COLD FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. WE`RE OFF TO ANOTHER WARM START THIS MORNING, WITH
DEWPOINTS HANGING UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT, A SMALL
TSTORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED FROM AROUND THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY QUICKLY WEAKENED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER NORTH AL AT THIS POINT.

HEADING THROUGH THE DAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMED FOR INCREASED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE THERE`S AN AXIS OF INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE
BIGGEST FORECAST QUANDARY IS HOW EARLY CONVECTION WILL INITIATE.
SEVERAL HIGH RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS CAN BE DISCOUNTED, AS THEY DEPICTED
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING, BIASING THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. GUIDANCE THAT HANDLED THIS
ACTIVITY MORE CORRECTLY TENDED TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER
NORTH AL MID/LATE MORNING, SPREADING SOUTH/WESTWARD INTO THE CWA
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH IMPROVING NORTH-SOUTH FLOW AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY, WE STILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE POTENT
CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OUTLOOK FOR LIMITED SEVERE STORM THREAT FOR TODAY.

THURSDAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST ACROSS THE REGION AS
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PW`S ARE FORECAST
TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
ADDITIONAL WEAK UPPER WAVES PASSING BY. GIVEN THIS, WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE POPS WHICH SEEMED RATHER LOW, INCLUDING LIKELY POPS IN SOME
SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE COULD AGAIN BE A FEW POTENT STORMS IN THE AREA,
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON OUTLINING A SEVERE RISK PENDING QUESTIONS AROUND
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE CWA WILL BEGIN TO
EXPERIENCE THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE 60S IN THE NORTH, WITH LOW TEMPS ALSO
TRENDING DOWNWARD CLOSER TO 70.

IN SPITE OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AN ISSUE TODAY. IN FACT, THE POOLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONLY
ESCALATE CONCERNS AS IT WILL KEEP UP DEWPOINTS LEADING TO HIGHER
HEAT INDICES DURING THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
CONVECTION TO DISRUPT HEATING AROUND THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND HWY 45
CORRIDOR EARLIER IN THE DAY, BUT CURRENTLY WE EXPECT MOST RAIN/
CLOUDS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THESE FACTORS,
THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA,
AND THE EXISTING EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE KEPT IN TACT.
CURRENT FORECASTS FOR THURSDAY WOULD WARRANT AN EXPANSION OF
ADVISORIES IN TIME, BUT AS QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE TIMING OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP, WILL DEFER ANY SUCH EXTENSION TO LATER SHIFTS.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION BMX/SHV/LZK/MEG. /DL/

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO OFFER A STEADY SOLUTION FOR THE MED RANGE/LONG TERM. BY FRI...THE
PATTERN WILL HAVE ADJUSTED SOME WITH THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
TO OUR WEST AND OUR CWA WILL BE SITUATED MORE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. WHAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT IN THE PREV DAYS FORECASTS IS A
WEAK SFC FRONT PUSHING WELL INTO THE CWA BY FRI AND BRINGING DRIER
AIR TO THE REGION REMAINS ON TRACK. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWER HUMIDITY
FRI-MON WITH SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS (UPPER 60S FOR N HALF). THE
DEEP DRY AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL AND ONLY LOW END CHANCES
10-20% ARE BEING ADVERTISED OVER THE FAR SE. WITH RELIEF FROM THE
HUMIDITY...ONE MIGHT THINK TEMPS WILL BE COOLER. THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE. INITIALLY HIGHS MAY BE 2-3 LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...BUT MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD MORE UPPER
90S FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY ARISE DUE TO
THE LOWER RH VALUES...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA, WITH LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK MAINLY AT GWO,
HBG. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE PREVALENT THAN IN RECENT DAYS
AT TERMINALS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-55. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
BRING QUICK CIG/VISBY REDUCTIONS AND POTENTIALLY A STRONG GUST OF
WIND. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNSET.
/DL/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       98  75  97  75 /  30  26  47  14
MERIDIAN      96  73  95  73 /  44  33  57  25
VICKSBURG     98  75  97  73 /  19  21  39  12
HATTIESBURG   96  74  96  76 /  44  36  62  41
NATCHEZ       95  76  96  74 /  21  25  46  22
GREENVILLE    98  78  95  71 /  16  16  24   7
GREENWOOD     98  75  95  70 /  28  18  29   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ025>033-036>039-
     042>066-072>074.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-
     019-034-035-040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ016-023>026.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-
     075.

&&

$$

DL/CME




000
FXUS64 KJAN 290923
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
423 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...FINALLY THE STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND A COLD FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. WE`RE OFF TO ANOTHER WARM START THIS MORNING, WITH
DEWPOINTS HANGING UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT, A SMALL
TSTORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED FROM AROUND THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY QUICKLY WEAKENED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER NORTH AL AT THIS POINT.

HEADING THROUGH THE DAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMED FOR INCREASED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE THERE`S AN AXIS OF INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE
BIGGEST FORECAST QUANDARY IS HOW EARLY CONVECTION WILL INITIATE.
SEVERAL HIGH RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS CAN BE DISCOUNTED, AS THEY DEPICTED
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING, BIASING THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. GUIDANCE THAT HANDLED THIS
ACTIVITY MORE CORRECTLY TENDED TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER
NORTH AL MID/LATE MORNING, SPREADING SOUTH/WESTWARD INTO THE CWA
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH IMPROVING NORTH-SOUTH FLOW AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY, WE STILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE POTENT
CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OUTLOOK FOR LIMITED SEVERE STORM THREAT FOR TODAY.

THURSDAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST ACROSS THE REGION AS
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PW`S ARE FORECAST
TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
ADDITIONAL WEAK UPPER WAVES PASSING BY. GIVEN THIS, WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE POPS WHICH SEEMED RATHER LOW, INCLUDING LIKELY POPS IN SOME
SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE COULD AGAIN BE A FEW POTENT STORMS IN THE AREA,
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON OUTLINING A SEVERE RISK PENDING QUESTIONS AROUND
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE CWA WILL BEGIN TO
EXPERIENCE THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE 60S IN THE NORTH, WITH LOW TEMPS ALSO
TRENDING DOWNWARD CLOSER TO 70.

IN SPITE OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AN ISSUE TODAY. IN FACT, THE POOLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONLY
ESCALATE CONCERNS AS IT WILL KEEP UP DEWPOINTS LEADING TO HIGHER
HEAT INDICES DURING THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
CONVECTION TO DISRUPT HEATING AROUND THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND HWY 45
CORRIDOR EARLIER IN THE DAY, BUT CURRENTLY WE EXPECT MOST RAIN/
CLOUDS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THESE FACTORS,
THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA,
AND THE EXISTING EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE KEPT IN TACT.
CURRENT FORECASTS FOR THURSDAY WOULD WARRANT AN EXPANSION OF
ADVISORIES IN TIME, BUT AS QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE TIMING OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP, WILL DEFER ANY SUCH EXTENSION TO LATER SHIFTS.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION BMX/SHV/LZK/MEG. /DL/

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO OFFER A STEADY SOLUTION FOR THE MED RANGE/LONG TERM. BY FRI...THE
PATTERN WILL HAVE ADJUSTED SOME WITH THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
TO OUR WEST AND OUR CWA WILL BE SITUATED MORE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. WHAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT IN THE PREV DAYS FORECASTS IS A
WEAK SFC FRONT PUSHING WELL INTO THE CWA BY FRI AND BRINGING DRIER
AIR TO THE REGION REMAINS ON TRACK. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWER HUMIDITY
FRI-MON WITH SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS (UPPER 60S FOR N HALF). THE
DEEP DRY AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL AND ONLY LOW END CHANCES
10-20% ARE BEING ADVERTISED OVER THE FAR SE. WITH RELIEF FROM THE
HUMIDITY...ONE MIGHT THINK TEMPS WILL BE COOLER. THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE. INITIALLY HIGHS MAY BE 2-3 LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...BUT MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD MORE UPPER
90S FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY ARISE DUE TO
THE LOWER RH VALUES...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA, WITH LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK MAINLY AT GWO,
HBG. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE PREVALENT THAN IN RECENT DAYS
AT TERMINALS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-55. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
BRING QUICK CIG/VISBY REDUCTIONS AND POTENTIALLY A STRONG GUST OF
WIND. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNSET.
/DL/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       98  75  97  75 /  30  26  47  14
MERIDIAN      96  73  95  73 /  44  33  57  25
VICKSBURG     98  75  97  73 /  19  21  39  12
HATTIESBURG   96  74  96  76 /  44  36  62  41
NATCHEZ       95  76  96  74 /  21  25  46  22
GREENVILLE    98  78  95  71 /  16  16  24   7
GREENWOOD     98  75  95  70 /  28  18  29   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ025>033-036>039-
     042>066-072>074.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-
     019-034-035-040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ016-023>026.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-
     075.

&&

$$

DL/CME





000
FXUS64 KJAN 290923
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
423 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...FINALLY THE STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND A COLD FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. WE`RE OFF TO ANOTHER WARM START THIS MORNING, WITH
DEWPOINTS HANGING UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT, A SMALL
TSTORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED FROM AROUND THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY QUICKLY WEAKENED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER NORTH AL AT THIS POINT.

HEADING THROUGH THE DAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMED FOR INCREASED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE THERE`S AN AXIS OF INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE
BIGGEST FORECAST QUANDARY IS HOW EARLY CONVECTION WILL INITIATE.
SEVERAL HIGH RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS CAN BE DISCOUNTED, AS THEY DEPICTED
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING, BIASING THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. GUIDANCE THAT HANDLED THIS
ACTIVITY MORE CORRECTLY TENDED TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER
NORTH AL MID/LATE MORNING, SPREADING SOUTH/WESTWARD INTO THE CWA
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH IMPROVING NORTH-SOUTH FLOW AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY, WE STILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE POTENT
CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OUTLOOK FOR LIMITED SEVERE STORM THREAT FOR TODAY.

THURSDAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST ACROSS THE REGION AS
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PW`S ARE FORECAST
TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
ADDITIONAL WEAK UPPER WAVES PASSING BY. GIVEN THIS, WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE POPS WHICH SEEMED RATHER LOW, INCLUDING LIKELY POPS IN SOME
SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE COULD AGAIN BE A FEW POTENT STORMS IN THE AREA,
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON OUTLINING A SEVERE RISK PENDING QUESTIONS AROUND
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE CWA WILL BEGIN TO
EXPERIENCE THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE 60S IN THE NORTH, WITH LOW TEMPS ALSO
TRENDING DOWNWARD CLOSER TO 70.

IN SPITE OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AN ISSUE TODAY. IN FACT, THE POOLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONLY
ESCALATE CONCERNS AS IT WILL KEEP UP DEWPOINTS LEADING TO HIGHER
HEAT INDICES DURING THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
CONVECTION TO DISRUPT HEATING AROUND THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND HWY 45
CORRIDOR EARLIER IN THE DAY, BUT CURRENTLY WE EXPECT MOST RAIN/
CLOUDS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THESE FACTORS,
THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA,
AND THE EXISTING EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE KEPT IN TACT.
CURRENT FORECASTS FOR THURSDAY WOULD WARRANT AN EXPANSION OF
ADVISORIES IN TIME, BUT AS QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE TIMING OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP, WILL DEFER ANY SUCH EXTENSION TO LATER SHIFTS.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION BMX/SHV/LZK/MEG. /DL/

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO OFFER A STEADY SOLUTION FOR THE MED RANGE/LONG TERM. BY FRI...THE
PATTERN WILL HAVE ADJUSTED SOME WITH THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
TO OUR WEST AND OUR CWA WILL BE SITUATED MORE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. WHAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT IN THE PREV DAYS FORECASTS IS A
WEAK SFC FRONT PUSHING WELL INTO THE CWA BY FRI AND BRINGING DRIER
AIR TO THE REGION REMAINS ON TRACK. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWER HUMIDITY
FRI-MON WITH SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS (UPPER 60S FOR N HALF). THE
DEEP DRY AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL AND ONLY LOW END CHANCES
10-20% ARE BEING ADVERTISED OVER THE FAR SE. WITH RELIEF FROM THE
HUMIDITY...ONE MIGHT THINK TEMPS WILL BE COOLER. THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE. INITIALLY HIGHS MAY BE 2-3 LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...BUT MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD MORE UPPER
90S FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY ARISE DUE TO
THE LOWER RH VALUES...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA, WITH LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK MAINLY AT GWO,
HBG. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE PREVALENT THAN IN RECENT DAYS
AT TERMINALS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-55. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
BRING QUICK CIG/VISBY REDUCTIONS AND POTENTIALLY A STRONG GUST OF
WIND. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNSET.
/DL/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       98  75  97  75 /  30  26  47  14
MERIDIAN      96  73  95  73 /  44  33  57  25
VICKSBURG     98  75  97  73 /  19  21  39  12
HATTIESBURG   96  74  96  76 /  44  36  62  41
NATCHEZ       95  76  96  74 /  21  25  46  22
GREENVILLE    98  78  95  71 /  16  16  24   7
GREENWOOD     98  75  95  70 /  28  18  29   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ025>033-036>039-
     042>066-072>074.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-
     019-034-035-040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ016-023>026.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-
     075.

&&

$$

DL/CME





000
FXUS64 KJAN 290923
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
423 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...FINALLY THE STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND A COLD FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. WE`RE OFF TO ANOTHER WARM START THIS MORNING, WITH
DEWPOINTS HANGING UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT, A SMALL
TSTORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED FROM AROUND THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY QUICKLY WEAKENED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER NORTH AL AT THIS POINT.

HEADING THROUGH THE DAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMED FOR INCREASED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE THERE`S AN AXIS OF INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE
BIGGEST FORECAST QUANDARY IS HOW EARLY CONVECTION WILL INITIATE.
SEVERAL HIGH RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS CAN BE DISCOUNTED, AS THEY DEPICTED
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING, BIASING THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. GUIDANCE THAT HANDLED THIS
ACTIVITY MORE CORRECTLY TENDED TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER
NORTH AL MID/LATE MORNING, SPREADING SOUTH/WESTWARD INTO THE CWA
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH IMPROVING NORTH-SOUTH FLOW AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY, WE STILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE POTENT
CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OUTLOOK FOR LIMITED SEVERE STORM THREAT FOR TODAY.

THURSDAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST ACROSS THE REGION AS
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PW`S ARE FORECAST
TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
ADDITIONAL WEAK UPPER WAVES PASSING BY. GIVEN THIS, WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE POPS WHICH SEEMED RATHER LOW, INCLUDING LIKELY POPS IN SOME
SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE COULD AGAIN BE A FEW POTENT STORMS IN THE AREA,
BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON OUTLINING A SEVERE RISK PENDING QUESTIONS AROUND
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE CWA WILL BEGIN TO
EXPERIENCE THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE 60S IN THE NORTH, WITH LOW TEMPS ALSO
TRENDING DOWNWARD CLOSER TO 70.

IN SPITE OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AN ISSUE TODAY. IN FACT, THE POOLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONLY
ESCALATE CONCERNS AS IT WILL KEEP UP DEWPOINTS LEADING TO HIGHER
HEAT INDICES DURING THE DAYTIME. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
CONVECTION TO DISRUPT HEATING AROUND THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND HWY 45
CORRIDOR EARLIER IN THE DAY, BUT CURRENTLY WE EXPECT MOST RAIN/
CLOUDS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THESE FACTORS,
THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA,
AND THE EXISTING EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE KEPT IN TACT.
CURRENT FORECASTS FOR THURSDAY WOULD WARRANT AN EXPANSION OF
ADVISORIES IN TIME, BUT AS QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE TIMING OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP, WILL DEFER ANY SUCH EXTENSION TO LATER SHIFTS.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION BMX/SHV/LZK/MEG. /DL/

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO OFFER A STEADY SOLUTION FOR THE MED RANGE/LONG TERM. BY FRI...THE
PATTERN WILL HAVE ADJUSTED SOME WITH THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
TO OUR WEST AND OUR CWA WILL BE SITUATED MORE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. WHAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT IN THE PREV DAYS FORECASTS IS A
WEAK SFC FRONT PUSHING WELL INTO THE CWA BY FRI AND BRINGING DRIER
AIR TO THE REGION REMAINS ON TRACK. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWER HUMIDITY
FRI-MON WITH SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS (UPPER 60S FOR N HALF). THE
DEEP DRY AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL AND ONLY LOW END CHANCES
10-20% ARE BEING ADVERTISED OVER THE FAR SE. WITH RELIEF FROM THE
HUMIDITY...ONE MIGHT THINK TEMPS WILL BE COOLER. THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE. INITIALLY HIGHS MAY BE 2-3 LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...BUT MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD MORE UPPER
90S FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY ARISE DUE TO
THE LOWER RH VALUES...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA, WITH LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK MAINLY AT GWO,
HBG. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE PREVALENT THAN IN RECENT DAYS
AT TERMINALS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-55. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
BRING QUICK CIG/VISBY REDUCTIONS AND POTENTIALLY A STRONG GUST OF
WIND. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNSET.
/DL/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       98  75  97  75 /  30  26  47  14
MERIDIAN      96  73  95  73 /  44  33  57  25
VICKSBURG     98  75  97  73 /  19  21  39  12
HATTIESBURG   96  74  96  76 /  44  36  62  41
NATCHEZ       95  76  96  74 /  21  25  46  22
GREENVILLE    98  78  95  71 /  16  16  24   7
GREENWOOD     98  75  95  70 /  28  18  29   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ025>033-036>039-
     042>066-072>074.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-
     019-034-035-040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ016-023>026.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-
     075.

&&

$$

DL/CME




000
FXUS64 KJAN 290211 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
910 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND IS PROGGED BY A
FEW HIRES MODEL RUNS TO HELP INSTIGATE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR BETWEEN GWO AND COLUMBUS BEFORE DAYBREAK.
THIS IS PLAUSIBLE...BUT LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING POPS IN THIS
NECK OF THE WOODS WERE ONLY INCREASED INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE BECAUSE NEGATIVE FACTORS WILL FIGHT AGAINST SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION MAKING IT THAT FAR SOUTH THAT QUICKLY. THOSE NEGATIVE
FACTORS INCLUDE GENERAL LACK OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH NEARBY UPPER
RIDGE CENTER AND 700-500MB THERMAL CAPPING EVIDENT ON 00Z JAN RAOB.

SO WE WILL BE WATCHING CONVECTION COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF THE CURRENT SLOW WEAKENING
TREND CONTINUING. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
NIGHT WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING LAYOUT FOR OUR REGION WAS KEPT
INTACT. LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN MS MAY BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY
OVERNIGHT BUT AT THIS POINT THE QUESTION MARKS OF RELATIVELY EARLY
CONVECTION TOMORROW ACROSS EASTERN MS MAKE IT PRUDENT TO REFRAIN
FROM MAKING CHANGES AT THIS JUNCTURE. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
MOST TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AT GWO/CBM/GTR MAY CAUSE BRIEF CIG/VISBY
REDUCTIONS...BUT THE HIGHER OVERALL RISKS OF IMPACT FROM CONVECTION
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF MS WILL COME TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LIGHT GENERALLY W-SW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT OFF
COURSE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
/BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF HOT
TEMPERATURES. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST. PWATS WILL CLIMB
ABOVE 2.0 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL
ALLOW A SHORT WAVE TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
EXPECT SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. A LIMITED AREA
OF SEVERE HAS ALREADY BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE GRAPHICASTS AND HWO.
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE VERY HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECT HEAT
INDICES TO CLIMB ABOVE 110 IN THE DELTA...SO A HEAT WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED FURTHER TO
THE EAST ALSO.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

A WELCOME SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT WE HAVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING FOR QUIT SOME TIME. THERE COULD BE SOME STORMS IN
THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY. A NICE WEEKEND LOOKS
ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES STILL CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES AS
UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW RETURNS
BY TUESDAY. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  97  77  95 /  12  31  32  40
MERIDIAN      74  96  75  94 /  19  41  29  44
VICKSBURG     76  98  76  96 /   9  20  28  32
HATTIESBURG   75  98  76  94 /  14  38  38  51
NATCHEZ       75  97  76  95 /   8  22  29  39
GREENVILLE    77  99  77  94 /  10  16  23  21
GREENWOOD     76  97  76  94 /  17  25  25  25

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ025>033-036-037-
     042-043-047-048-053-059-060.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
     034-035-040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ016-023>026.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-
     015.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

BB/15





000
FXUS64 KJAN 290211 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
910 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND IS PROGGED BY A
FEW HIRES MODEL RUNS TO HELP INSTIGATE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR BETWEEN GWO AND COLUMBUS BEFORE DAYBREAK.
THIS IS PLAUSIBLE...BUT LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING POPS IN THIS
NECK OF THE WOODS WERE ONLY INCREASED INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE BECAUSE NEGATIVE FACTORS WILL FIGHT AGAINST SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION MAKING IT THAT FAR SOUTH THAT QUICKLY. THOSE NEGATIVE
FACTORS INCLUDE GENERAL LACK OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH NEARBY UPPER
RIDGE CENTER AND 700-500MB THERMAL CAPPING EVIDENT ON 00Z JAN RAOB.

SO WE WILL BE WATCHING CONVECTION COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF THE CURRENT SLOW WEAKENING
TREND CONTINUING. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
NIGHT WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING LAYOUT FOR OUR REGION WAS KEPT
INTACT. LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN MS MAY BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY
OVERNIGHT BUT AT THIS POINT THE QUESTION MARKS OF RELATIVELY EARLY
CONVECTION TOMORROW ACROSS EASTERN MS MAKE IT PRUDENT TO REFRAIN
FROM MAKING CHANGES AT THIS JUNCTURE. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
MOST TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AT GWO/CBM/GTR MAY CAUSE BRIEF CIG/VISBY
REDUCTIONS...BUT THE HIGHER OVERALL RISKS OF IMPACT FROM CONVECTION
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF MS WILL COME TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LIGHT GENERALLY W-SW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT OFF
COURSE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
/BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF HOT
TEMPERATURES. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST. PWATS WILL CLIMB
ABOVE 2.0 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL
ALLOW A SHORT WAVE TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
EXPECT SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. A LIMITED AREA
OF SEVERE HAS ALREADY BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE GRAPHICASTS AND HWO.
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE VERY HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECT HEAT
INDICES TO CLIMB ABOVE 110 IN THE DELTA...SO A HEAT WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED FURTHER TO
THE EAST ALSO.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

A WELCOME SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT WE HAVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING FOR QUIT SOME TIME. THERE COULD BE SOME STORMS IN
THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY. A NICE WEEKEND LOOKS
ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES STILL CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES AS
UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW RETURNS
BY TUESDAY. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  97  77  95 /  12  31  32  40
MERIDIAN      74  96  75  94 /  19  41  29  44
VICKSBURG     76  98  76  96 /   9  20  28  32
HATTIESBURG   75  98  76  94 /  14  38  38  51
NATCHEZ       75  97  76  95 /   8  22  29  39
GREENVILLE    77  99  77  94 /  10  16  23  21
GREENWOOD     76  97  76  94 /  17  25  25  25

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ025>033-036-037-
     042-043-047-048-053-059-060.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
     034-035-040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ016-023>026.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-
     015.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

BB/15




000
FXUS64 KJAN 282013
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
313 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF HOT
TEMPERATURES. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST. PWATS WILL CLIMB
ABOVE 2.0 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL
ALLOW A SHORT WAVE TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
EXPECT SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. A LIMITED AREA
OF SEVERE HAS ALREADY BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE GRAPHICASTS AND HWO.
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE VERY HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECT HEAT
INDICES TO CLIMB ABOVE 110 IN THE DELTA...SO A HEAT WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED FURTHER TO
THE EAST ALSO.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

A WELCOME SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT WE HAVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING FOR QUIT SOME TIME. THERE COULD BE SOME STORMS IN
THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY. A NICE WEEKEND LOOKS
ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES STILL CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES AS
UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW RETURNS
BY TUESDAY. /15/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
MOST TERMINALS. VERY ISOLATED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE BRIEF
CIG/VISBY REDUCTIONS IN A FEW SPOTS. LIGHT GENERALLY W-SW WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  /AEG/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  97  77  95 /  12  31  32  40
MERIDIAN      73  96  75  94 /  18  41  29  44
VICKSBURG     74  98  76  96 /   9  20  28  32
HATTIESBURG   75  98  76  94 /  18  38  38  51
NATCHEZ       75  97  76  95 /   8  22  29  39
GREENVILLE    76  99  77  94 /   9  16  23  21
GREENWOOD     75  97  76  94 /  11  25  25  25

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ025>033-036-037-
     042-043-047-048-053-059-060.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
     034-035-040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ016-023>026.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-
     015.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

15/AEG




000
FXUS64 KJAN 282013
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
313 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF HOT
TEMPERATURES. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST. PWATS WILL CLIMB
ABOVE 2.0 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL
ALLOW A SHORT WAVE TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
EXPECT SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. A LIMITED AREA
OF SEVERE HAS ALREADY BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE GRAPHICASTS AND HWO.
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE VERY HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECT HEAT
INDICES TO CLIMB ABOVE 110 IN THE DELTA...SO A HEAT WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED FURTHER TO
THE EAST ALSO.

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

A WELCOME SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT WE HAVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING FOR QUIT SOME TIME. THERE COULD BE SOME STORMS IN
THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY. A NICE WEEKEND LOOKS
ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES STILL CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S...BUT WITH MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

THE DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES AS
UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW RETURNS
BY TUESDAY. /15/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
MOST TERMINALS. VERY ISOLATED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE BRIEF
CIG/VISBY REDUCTIONS IN A FEW SPOTS. LIGHT GENERALLY W-SW WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  /AEG/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  97  77  95 /  12  31  32  40
MERIDIAN      73  96  75  94 /  18  41  29  44
VICKSBURG     74  98  76  96 /   9  20  28  32
HATTIESBURG   75  98  76  94 /  18  38  38  51
NATCHEZ       75  97  76  95 /   8  22  29  39
GREENVILLE    76  99  77  94 /   9  16  23  21
GREENWOOD     75  97  76  94 /  11  25  25  25

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ025>033-036-037-
     042-043-047-048-053-059-060.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
     034-035-040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ016-023>026.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-
     015.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

15/AEG





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