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000
FXUS64 KJAN 241017
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
517 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
UPPER RIDGING ALOFT THIS MORNING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AS A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...1000MB SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT
TREK THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH
THE SLOWER TRACK BRINGING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID TO LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION LATER THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS TO AFFECT THE DELTA REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT
THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR
MUCH LATER INTO THE EVENING. STILL EXPECT THAT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AS THIS IS THE AREA OF
BETTER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING SFC LOW. HI-RES MODELS
DEPICT STORMS APPROACHING THE DELTA BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY CONGEALING INTO A THIN SQUALL LINE BUT THE
LINE WANES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY ALSO WANES AND
THE BEST ASCENT PULLS AWAY. THERE DOES REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE
BEST WIND SHEAR...HELICITY AND FORCING WILL BE IN THE NORTH/DELTA
REGION WHICH CURRENTLY MATCHES UP WITH OUR OUTLOOK AREA AS WELL AS
THE DAY ONE SLIGHT RISK AREA PER SPC. THIS ACTIVITY COULD ALSO BE
ENHANCED BY THE APPROACH OF A 60-65KT 500MB JET THAT SHOULD BE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALL OF THIS SHOULD MEAN
THAT ANY SEVERE STORM COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. IT ALSO IS NOT OUTSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY TO SEE A
TORNADO GIVEN THERE IS PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR AND HELICITY IN THE
WEST/NORTHWEST..BUT THIS WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MIGHT BE RATHER SMALL
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ALSO...THE LCL HEIGHTS ARE STILL HIGH WHICH
MAY NOT HELP THAT POTENTIAL BUT DO LOWER FOR A SMALL TIME PERIOD
AFTER 00Z PER BUFR SOUNDINGS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN AT THE SFC. UPPER RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD BACK IN
FROM THE WEST AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALL SPELL DRY
WEATHER FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOLER SIDE IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY AND 50S FOR LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT. /28/

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST THINKING IS GENERALLY THE SAME REGARDING THE POTENT SET-
UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING COULD DEVELOP IF MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF STORMS MATERIALIZE.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE ARKLAMISS...
BUT DRAMATIC CHANGES ARE EXPECTED STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND GOING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A POWERFUL DEEPENING CYCLONE TRAVERSES THE
PLAINS STATES AND BRINGS RAPID PRESSURE FALLS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET JUXTAPOSED BY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL DRAW RICH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD (SFC DEWPOINTS
APPROACHING 70 F) AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND TORNADO POTENTIAL
BY SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE DELTA REGION AS SFC- BASED THUNDERSTORMS
BREAK OUT. THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TAPPING INTO VERY MOIST AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
~ 1.75 INCHES. THIS MCS COULD PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING SOME AS IT OUTRUNS BETTER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. HOWEVER...EXPECT RE-NEWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY AS THE NOSE OF POWERFUL PACIFIC JET ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF
THE DEEP CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND ENHANCES WIND SHEAR/LIFT AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MIXED LAYER CAPE > 3000
J/KG COULD HELP MAY FOR A VOLATILE SET-UP WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

CIPS ANALOGS ARE SHOWING VERY SIGNIFICANT EVENTS FOR COMPARISON TO
THIS SET-UP ADDING MORE CONFIDENCE THAT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF A SLOW-MOVING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. ANOTHER
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE CYCLONIC REGIME TO STALL OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS FOR A LONGER PERIOD INTO TUESDAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER LOBE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BACK FLOW
SUFFICIENTLY FOR REGENERATION OF STORMS. BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO FINALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION. /EC/

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS SKIES
WILL BE SUNNY IN THE MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25-30KTS IN THE DELTA.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR TAF SITES NORTH
OF I-20(KGLH/KGWO) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EVENTUALLY
AFFECTING KJAN/KMEI/KGTR THROUGH THE LATER EVENING HOURS. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND STORMS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WIND SHIFT
OUT OF THE WEST AND THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       82  60  79  52 /  13  31   6   0
MERIDIAN      83  59  82  48 /   8  40   6   0
VICKSBURG     83  55  79  50 /  16  27   4   0
HATTIESBURG   83  64  83  52 /   2  20   6   0
NATCHEZ       82  59  78  52 /   6  22   5   0
GREENVILLE    82  55  78  52 /  28  55   2   0
GREENWOOD     82  55  78  51 /  24  61   3   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

EC/28/









000
FXUS64 KJAN 240147 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
847 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO AROUND 50 EAST. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WERE TO THE HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEWPTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN FOR MOST TAF
SITES. EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE ONCE AGAIN FOR KMEI/KHBG WHERE FOG
WILL BEGIN TAKING VISIBILITIES AND CEILING DOWN TO IFR/LIFR AFTER
06Z...WITH A QUICK RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z. /26/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS DECENT CU FIELD ALONG THE GULF COAST TRYING TO
MOVE NORTH INTO OUR CWA BUT RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WAS
SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA SO FAR. THE RIDGES WILL SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER OUR
CWA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST BY MORNING
AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP A SURFACE LOW LIFT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL LEND TO SOME BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS
OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF BY AFTERNOON. A WIND
ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THE BREEZY SOUTH WIND WILL
HELP A WARM FRONT LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS OUR CWA ALONG WITH A
MOISTURE INCREASE. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR
CWA. IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE DELTA
UNTIL THE EVENING. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL
TO OUR NORTH AND CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT
SOUTH OF I-20 BUT MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS 1000-1500MLCAPE AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF A WINNSBORO LA...TO YAZOO CITY...TO EUPORA MS LINE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN RISKS SHOULD BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY THE FURTHER EAST IN
THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS STALLS THE FRONT NEAR THE HIGHWAY
84 CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF LIMITING CONVECTION BUT A
FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE STALLED FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT. NO CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
/22/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR SATURDAY. THIS RIDGING WILL BECOME A LITTLE GREATER OVER
THE AREA WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 80S...LOWS IN THE 60S
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. OUR NEXT BIG SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AND TAKE ON A BIT OF A
NEGATIVE TILT. AS THIS OCCURS...A SFC LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON THE
LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK WITH THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO MISSOURI BY MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE MORE INTENSE WITH THIS SFC LOW THAN THE GFS ON THE 00Z
RUN...BUT BOTH KEEP IT SUB-1000MB. AHEAD OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODEL PW VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.8
INCHES DEPICTED THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL FALL AROUND THE 99TH
PERCENTILE WITH REGARDS TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MEANING THIS SHOULD LEAD TO EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IT
APPEARS THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 INCHES OF
RAIN(LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS FROM ABOUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. WHILE THE DETAILS WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD FOR ALL TYPES
OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. VERTICAL TOTALS INCREASE TO
AROUND 29-30C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY WONT BE AN ISSUE
AS MODELS BRING MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...WITH EVEN SOME
70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY/IN TERMS
OF MOST UNSTABLE AND SBCAPE/ WILL COME ON MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA WITH VALUES AROUND 2500-3000J/KG. PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL BE
AVAILABLE AS LOW LEVEL VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30-40KTS AND DEEPER
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40-50KTS. WILL KEEP MONITORING THIS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL REMAIN MENTIONING THIS IN THE
HWO/GRAPHICS.

THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY BUT
THE LARGE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE IT VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...LEAVING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
UNDER LARGE SCALE TROUGHING. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER...BELOW
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES INTO THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       54  83  61  81 /   1   6  25  13
MERIDIAN      50  84  61  82 /   1   4  29  12
VICKSBURG     55  84  60  83 /   2  10  26  12
HATTIESBURG   56  84  63  84 /   2   5  16  20
NATCHEZ       58  83  63  82 /   3   8  17  19
GREENVILLE    55  84  56  81 /   1  17  61   7
GREENWOOD     53  84  56  81 /   1  12  62   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 232054
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS DECENT CU FIELD ALONG THE GULF COAST TRYING TO
MOVE NORTH INTO OUR CWA BUT RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WAS
SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA SO FAR. THE RIDGES WILL SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER OUR
CWA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST BY MORNING
AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP A SURFACE LOW LIFT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL LEND TO SOME BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS
OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF BY AFTERNOON. A WIND
ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THE BREEZY SOUTH WIND WILL
HELP A WARM FRONT LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS OUR CWA ALONG WITH A
MOISTURE INCREASE. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR
CWA. IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE DELTA
UNTIL THE EVENING. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL
TO OUR NORTH AND CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT
SOUTH OF I-20 BUT MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS 1000-1500MLCAPE AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF A WINNSBORO LA...TO YAZOO CITY...TO EUPORA MS LINE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN RISKS SHOULD BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY THE FURTHER EAST IN
THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS STALLS THE FRONT NEAR THE HIGHWAY
84 CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF LIMITING CONVECTION BUT A
FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE STALLED FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT. NO CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
/22/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR SATURDAY. THIS RIDGING WILL BECOME A LITTLE GREATER OVER
THE AREA WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 80S...LOWS IN THE 60S
AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. OUR NEXT BIG SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AND TAKE ON A BIT OF A
NEGATIVE TILT. AS THIS OCCURS...A SFC LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON THE
LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK WITH THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO MISSOURI BY MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE MORE INTENSE WITH THIS SFC LOW THAN THE GFS ON THE 00Z
RUN...BUT BOTH KEEP IT SUB-1000MB. AHEAD OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODEL PW VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.8
INCHES DEPICTED THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL FALL AROUND THE 99TH
PERCENTILE WITH REGARDS TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MEANING THIS SHOULD LEAD TO EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IT
APPEARS THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 INCHES OF
RAIN(LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS FROM ABOUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. WHILE THE DETAILS WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD FOR ALL TYPES
OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. VERTICAL TOTALS INCREASE TO
AROUND 29-30C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY WONT BE AN ISSUE
AS MODELS BRING MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...WITH EVEN SOME
70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY/IN TERMS
OF MOST UNSTABLE AND SBCAPE/ WILL COME ON MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA WITH VALUES AROUND 2500-3000J/KG. PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL BE
AVAILABLE AS LOW LEVEL VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30-40KTS AND DEEPER
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40-50KTS. WILL KEEP MONITORING THIS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL REMAIN MENTIONING THIS IN THE
HWO/GRAPHICS.

THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY BUT
THE LARGE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE IT VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...LEAVING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
UNDER LARGE SCALE TROUGHING. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER...BELOW
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES INTO THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD
WITH EXCEPTION OF KHBG WHERE LOW IFR STRATUS/FOG COMBO WILL BE
POSSIBLE 09-14Z WITH VFR RETURNING QUICKLY THEREAFTER. LOWER CLOUD
BANDS WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST THURS AFTN WITH SOME SHRA AND TSRA
LIKELY FOR KGWO/KGLH AFTER 25/00Z. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       54  83  61  81 /   1   6  25  13
MERIDIAN      50  84  61  82 /   1   4  29  12
VICKSBURG     55  84  60  83 /   2  10  26  12
HATTIESBURG   56  84  63  84 /   2   5  16  20
NATCHEZ       58  83  63  82 /   3   8  17  19
GREENVILLE    55  84  56  81 /   1  17  61   7
GREENWOOD     53  84  56  81 /   1  12  62   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/28/ALLEN










000
FXUS64 KJAN 231543
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1030 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...EARLIER UPDATE REMOVED MENTION OF FOG AS IT DISSIPATED
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1023MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS RIDGING SOUTH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RIDGE ALOFT JUST TO OUR WEST.
BOTH RIDGES SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
HELP MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOURLY
OBSERVATION TEMPERATURES CONTINUED TO OUT PACE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
CURVES THIS MORNING  SO AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OUR
TWO. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH NEARLY SKC. WINDS NE/E TODAY AT 5-10 KT. MODELS NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POSSIBILITY OF FOG/STATUS BUILDING IN FROM
SOUTH 08Z-14Z BUT WILL HEDGE THIS DIRECTION. THIS COULD BRING MVFR
TO IFR CONDS TO KHBG/KMCB BEFORE VFR RETURN BY 14-15Z THURSDAY AND
WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS CANCELED AND WEATHER GRIDS WERE
UPDATED TO REFLECT LATEST FOG DISTRIBUTION AND LATEST TEMPERATURE
TRENDS.

SOME FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NE
LOUISIANA PARISHES THIS MORNING THAT AT TIMES HAS BEEN DENSE BUT THE
TEMPORAL SCOPE OF DENSE FOG OBSERVATIONS WILL NOT NECESSITATE AN
ADVISORY IN THIS AREA. CONVERSELY...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT WAS
IN EFFECT FOR SE MS HAS BEEN CANCELED AS RECENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWN
THE ONCE DENSE FOG DISSIPATING QUICKLY. HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT
TRENDS WERE UPDATED SLIGHTLY WITH GOING TRENDS. ALL UPDATES ARE OUT.
/ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE A FOGGY
START TO THE DAY IN MANY PLACES ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF MS. THE WEAK FRONT WHICH MOVED
THROUGH YESTERDAY FAILED TO MAKE A BIG PUSH TOWARD THE COAST AND THE
STALLING AND WASHING OUT OF THE FEATURE IN SOUTHERN ZONES IS
PRODUCING AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT WINDS AND SUBTLE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE CONDUCIVE FOR FOG. WE HAVE HOISTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
BROOKHAVEN TO MERIDIAN LINE WHERE FOG SHOULD BE THICKEST AND LESS
PATCHY. IN OTHER AREAS WHERE PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
WE WILL ALLOW THE HWO AND GRAPHICS TO COVER RISKS.

AFTER MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
ZONES ANTICIPATE A NICE AND WARM DAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 MPH OR
LESS AROUND HIGHS AROUND 80. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE GOOD WEATHER TODAY WILL BE TRANSITIONING OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT WHICH WILL TURN FLOW BACK TO THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THESE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS WELL. DECENT MOISTURE NOT TOO
FAR TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE IMPORTED BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.

TOMORROW THE BOTTOM END OF AN FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BE HEADED
AT THE REGION...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL DEFINITELY BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA ALTHOUGH NOT TO THE LEVEL WHERE A WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE
NECESSARY. DESPITE SCATTERED CLOUDS TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TOP OUT
IN THE VERY WARM MID 80S IN SOME SPOTS. A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
COINCIDENT WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE KICKING UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
TRIES TO QUICKLY RECOVER UP THE AXIS OF THE MS RIVER AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND THERMAL MID LEVEL CAPPING PUSHING NORTH FROM THE COAST LIKELY
PROHIBITIVE OF STORMS SOUTH OF I-20. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A
LITTLE WITH BRINGING THE CONVECTION INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS A
POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT IF WE ARE TRYING TO MINIMIZE THE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK. BUT CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS 1000-1500 ML CAPE AND SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR A BROKEN SQUALL LINE OR MAYBE EVEN A SUPERCELL OR TWO IN
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A WINNSBORO LA...TO YAZOO
CITY...TO EUPORA MS LINE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN RISKS SHOULD BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY FURTHER EAST YOU GO IN THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIP EXITING WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. /BB/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN
PLACE BY FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTH THURSDAY. AS THE END OF THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THIS RIDGING
WILL BECOME A LITTLE GREATER OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S...LOWS IN THE 60S AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.

OUR NEXT BIG SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AND TAKE ON A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT. AS THIS
OCCURS...A SFC LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON THE LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES
AND TRACK WITH THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO MISSOURI BY MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE INTENSE WITH
THIS SFC LOW THAN THE GFS ON THE 00Z RUN...BUT BOTH KEEP IT
SUB-1000MB. AHEAD OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MODEL PW VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES DEPICTED THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL FALL AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE WITH REGARDS TO
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MEANING THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN(LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) DURING THE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS FROM ABOUT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WHILE THE DETAILS
WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD FOR ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING
THIS TIME. VERTICAL TOTALS INCREASE TO AROUND 29-30C BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY WONT BE AN ISSUE AS MODELS BRING MID 60S
DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...WITH EVEN SOME 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY/IN TERMS OF MOST UNSTABLE AND
SBCAPE/ WILL COME ON MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH VALUES
AROUND 2500-3000J/KG. PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE AS LOW LEVEL
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30-40KTS AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND
40-50KTS. WILL KEEP MONITORING THIS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
WILL REMAIN MENTIONING THIS IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS.

THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY BUT
THE LARGE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE IT VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...LEAVING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
UNDER LARGE SCALE TROUGHING. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER...BELOW
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES INTO THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       82  55  84  63 /   0   1   8  23
MERIDIAN      82  51  84  60 /   0   1   8  26
VICKSBURG     82  57  84  61 /   0   3  12  23
HATTIESBURG   84  56  84  63 /   0   3   8  10
NATCHEZ       83  59  82  63 /   0   5   8  11
GREENVILLE    80  57  84  59 /   0   1  26  47
GREENWOOD     80  54  84  59 /   0   1  16  51

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/ALLEN/28










000
FXUS64 KJAN 231308
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
808 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS CANCELED AND WEATHER GRIDS WERE
UPDATED TO REFLECT LATEST FOG DISTRIBUTION AND LATEST TEMPERATURE
TRENDS.

SOME FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NE
LOUISIANA PARISHES THIS MORNING THAT AT TIMES HAS BEEN DENSE BUT THE
TEMPORAL SCOPE OF DENSE FOG OBSERVATIONS WILL NOT NECESSITATE AN
ADVISORY IN THIS AREA. CONVERSELY...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT WAS
IN EFFECT FOR SE MS HAS BEEN CANCELED AS RECENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWN
THE ONCE DENSE FOG DISSIPATING QUICKLY. HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT
TRENDS WERE UPDATED SLIGHTLY WITH GOING TRENDS. ALL UPDATES ARE OUT.
/ALLEN/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE A FOGGY
START TO THE DAY IN MANY PLACES ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF MS. THE WEAK FRONT WHICH MOVED
THROUGH YESTERDAY FAILED TO MAKE A BIG PUSH TOWARD THE COAST AND THE
STALLING AND WASHING OUT OF THE FEATURE IN SOUTHERN ZONES IS
PRODUCING AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT WINDS AND SUBTLE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE CONDUCIVE FOR FOG. WE HAVE HOISTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
BROOKHAVEN TO MERIDIAN LINE WHERE FOG SHOULD BE THICKEST AND LESS
PATCHY. IN OTHER AREAS WHERE PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
WE WILL ALLOW THE HWO AND GRAPHICS TO COVER RISKS.

AFTER MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
ZONES ANTICIPATE A NICE AND WARM DAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 MPH OR
LESS AROUND HIGHS AROUND 80. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE GOOD WEATHER TODAY WILL BE TRANSITIONING OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT WHICH WILL TURN FLOW BACK TO THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THESE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS WELL. DECENT MOISTURE NOT TOO
FAR TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE IMPORTED BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.

TOMORROW THE BOTTOM END OF AN FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BE HEADED
AT THE REGION...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL DEFINITELY BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA ALTHOUGH NOT TO THE LEVEL WHERE A WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE
NECESSARY. DESPITE SCATTERED CLOUDS TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TOP OUT
IN THE VERY WARM MID 80S IN SOME SPOTS. A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
COINCIDENT WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE KICKING UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
TRIES TO QUICKLY RECOVER UP THE AXIS OF THE MS RIVER AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND THERMAL MID LEVEL CAPPING PUSHING NORTH FROM THE COAST LIKELY
PROHIBITIVE OF STORMS SOUTH OF I-20. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A
LITTLE WITH BRINGING THE CONVECTION INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS A
POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT IF WE ARE TRYING TO MINIMIZE THE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK. BUT CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS 1000-1500 ML CAPE AND SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR A BROKEN SQUALL LINE OR MAYBE EVEN A SUPERCELL OR TWO IN
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A WINNSBORO LA...TO YAZOO
CITY...TO EUPORA MS LINE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN RISKS SHOULD BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY FURTHER EAST YOU GO IN THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIP EXITING WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. /BB/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN
PLACE BY FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTH THURSDAY. AS THE END OF THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THIS RIDGING
WILL BECOME A LITTLE GREATER OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S...LOWS IN THE 60S AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.

OUR NEXT BIG SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AND TAKE ON A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT. AS THIS
OCCURS...A SFC LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON THE LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES
AND TRACK WITH THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO MISSOURI BY MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE INTENSE WITH
THIS SFC LOW THAN THE GFS ON THE 00Z RUN...BUT BOTH KEEP IT
SUB-1000MB. AHEAD OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MODEL PW VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES DEPICTED THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL FALL AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE WITH REGARDS TO
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MEANING THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN(LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) DURING THE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS FROM ABOUT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WHILE THE DETAILS
WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD FOR ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING
THIS TIME. VERTICAL TOTALS INCREASE TO AROUND 29-30C BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY WONT BE AN ISSUE AS MODELS BRING MID 60S
DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...WITH EVEN SOME 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY/IN TERMS OF MOST UNSTABLE AND
SBCAPE/ WILL COME ON MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH VALUES
AROUND 2500-3000J/KG. PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE AS LOW LEVEL
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30-40KTS AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND
40-50KTS. WILL KEEP MONITORING THIS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
WILL REMAIN MENTIONING THIS IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS.

THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY BUT
THE LARGE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE IT VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...LEAVING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
UNDER LARGE SCALE TROUGHING. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER...BELOW
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES INTO THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CATS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. ANTICIPATE IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY LATEST THIS MORNING IN SOUTHEASTERN MS...BUT
AT LEAST BY 10 AM ALL AREAS SHOULD BE VFR. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. SUB VFR CONDITIONS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN SOUTHERN ZONES
THANKS TO LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       82  55  84  63 /   0   1   8  23
MERIDIAN      82  51  84  60 /   0   1   8  26
VICKSBURG     82  57  84  61 /   0   3  12  23
HATTIESBURG   84  56  84  63 /   0   3   8  10
NATCHEZ       83  59  82  63 /   0   5   8  11
GREENVILLE    79  57  84  59 /   0   1  26  47
GREENWOOD     79  54  84  59 /   0   1  16  51

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KJAN 230936
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
430 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE A FOGGY
START TO THE DAY IN MANY PLACES ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF MS. THE WEAK FRONT WHICH MOVED
THROUGH YESTERDAY FAILED TO MAKE A BIG PUSH TOWARD THE COAST AND THE
STALLING AND WASHING OUT OF THE FEATURE IN SOUTHERN ZONES IS
PRODUCING AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT WINDS AND SUBTLE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE CONDUCIVE FOR FOG. WE HAVE HOISTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
BROOKHAVEN TO MERIDIAN LINE WHERE FOG SHOULD BE THICKEST AND LESS
PATCHY. IN OTHER AREAS WHERE PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
WE WILL ALLOW THE HWO AND GRAPHICS TO COVER RISKS.

AFTER MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
ZONES ANTICIPATE A NICE AND WARM DAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 MPH OR
LESS AROUND HIGHS AROUND 80. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE GOOD WEATHER TODAY WILL BE TRANSITIONING OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT WHICH WILL TURN FLOW BACK TO THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THESE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS WELL. DECENT MOISTURE NOT TOO
FAR TO OUR SOUTH WILL BE IMPORTED BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LITTLE FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.

TOMORROW THE BOTTOM END OF AN FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BE HEADED
AT THE REGION...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL DEFINITELY BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA ALTHOUGH NOT TO THE LEVEL WHERE A WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE
NECESSARY. DESPITE SCATTERED CLOUDS TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TOP OUT
IN THE VERY WARM MID 80S IN SOME SPOTS. A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
COINCIDENT WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE KICKING UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
TRIES TO QUICKLY RECOVER UP THE AXIS OF THE MS RIVER AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND THERMAL MID LEVEL CAPPING PUSHING NORTH FROM THE COAST LIKELY
PROHIBITIVE OF STORMS SOUTH OF I-20. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A
LITTLE WITH BRINGING THE CONVECTION INTO THE REGION...WHICH IS A
POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT IF WE ARE TRYING TO MINIMIZE THE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK. BUT CONSENSUS STILL SUGGESTS 1000-1500 ML CAPE AND SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR A BROKEN SQUALL LINE OR MAYBE EVEN A SUPERCELL OR TWO IN
AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A WINNSBORO LA...TO YAZOO
CITY...TO EUPORA MS LINE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN RISKS SHOULD BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN INTENSITY FURTHER EAST YOU GO IN THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIP EXITING WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. /BB/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL BE IN
PLACE BY FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTH THURSDAY. AS THE END OF THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THIS RIDGING
WILL BECOME A LITTLE GREATER OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S...LOWS IN THE 60S AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.

OUR NEXT BIG SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AND TAKE ON A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT. AS THIS
OCCURS...A SFC LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON THE LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES
AND TRACK WITH THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO MISSOURI BY MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE INTENSE WITH
THIS SFC LOW THAN THE GFS ON THE 00Z RUN...BUT BOTH KEEP IT
SUB-1000MB. AHEAD OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MODEL PW VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES DEPICTED THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL FALL AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE WITH REGARDS TO
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MEANING THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN(LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) DURING THE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS FROM ABOUT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WHILE THE DETAILS
WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD FOR ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING
THIS TIME. VERTICAL TOTALS INCREASE TO AROUND 29-30C BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY WONT BE AN ISSUE AS MODELS BRING MID 60S
DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION...WITH EVEN SOME 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER INSTABILITY/IN TERMS OF MOST UNSTABLE AND
SBCAPE/ WILL COME ON MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH VALUES
AROUND 2500-3000J/KG. PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE AS LOW LEVEL
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30-40KTS AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND
40-50KTS. WILL KEEP MONITORING THIS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
WILL REMAIN MENTIONING THIS IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS.

THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY BUT
THE LARGE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE IT VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...LEAVING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
UNDER LARGE SCALE TROUGHING. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER...BELOW
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES INTO THE EARLY DAYS OF MAY. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CATS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. ANTICIPATE IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY LATEST THIS MORNING IN SOUTHEASTERN MS...BUT
AT LEAST BY 10 AM ALL AREAS SHOULD BE VFR. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. SUB VFR CONDITIONS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN SOUTHERN ZONES
THANKS TO LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  55  84  63 /   0   1   8  23
MERIDIAN      81  51  84  60 /   0   1   8  26
VICKSBURG     82  57  84  61 /   0   3  12  23
HATTIESBURG   84  56  84  63 /   0   3   8  10
NATCHEZ       82  59  82  63 /   0   5   8  11
GREENVILLE    79  57  84  59 /   0   1  26  47
GREENWOOD     79  54  84  59 /   0   1  16  51

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ051-052-
     055>058-062>066-072>074.

LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/28







000
FXUS64 KJAN 230146 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
846 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST WERE TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATEST TRENDS. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE KMEI AND KHBG WHERE IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE PROBABLE FROM 06-14Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY RETURN THEREAFTER. /26/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW SITUATED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. SO FAR THERE HAS ONLY BEEN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF I-55. THERE COULD STILL BE
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS TAPERING OFF BY
AROUND SUNSET.

WITH THIS FRONT...THE DRIER AIR HAS BEEN LAGGING A BIT BEHIND THE
PRESSURE TROUGH...AS UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE JUST RECENTLY MADE IT
INTO THE NORTH WITH THE GRENADA AWOS CHECKING IN AT 59F. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH MISSISSIPPI FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY
AROUND THE PINE BELT.

THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING
DOWN INTO THE CWA...BRINGING AT LEAST ONE DRY DAY TO THE AREA. IN
SPITE OF THE FROPA...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE NEGLIGENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE HEADING INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK...AS A QUICK-MOVING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES REPLACING THE UPPER RIDGE. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
RETURN BY THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A 1.3-1.4 INCH PWAT AIRMASS
BACK INTO THE DELTA BY THE AFTERNOON. CONTRARY TO THE GFS...THE
NAM/EURO/AND CANADIAN INDICATE A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THUS WE OPTED TO GO ABOVE MAV POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
THIS BRINGS RAIN CHANCES A BIT FARTHER SOUTH TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
MOST OF THE DAYTIME WOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...AND PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. PROGGED 00Z
SBCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS IN THE
40-50 KNOT RANGE OVER THE DELTA SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION INCLUDING SOME SEVERE STORMS. THUS A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INTRODUCED TO THE HWO/GRAPHICAST FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND WILL ELONGATE FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT. /DL/

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
/UPDATE/ THERE CONTINUES TO BE GROWING MODEL CONSENSUS IN A PERIOD
OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY PM THROUGH MONDAY AS A DEEP
NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY SHOWING THIS SIGNAL...WE FELT IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO
INTRODUCE MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO HWO/GRAPHICAST WITH
TODAYS FORECAST PACKAGE. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING...THIS IS STILL IN
THE DAY 6/7 PERIOD AND THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DETAILS WITH RESPECT
TO EXACT TIMING AND MODE THAT CANNOT BE RESOLVED AT THIS POINT IN
TIME. /DL/

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING
IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. /28/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       54  80  55  84 /   3   0   0  14
MERIDIAN      53  80  49  84 /   5   0   0  12
VICKSBURG     52  80  54  83 /   0   0   3  23
HATTIESBURG   58  83  56  85 /   8   0   5   7
NATCHEZ       56  80  58  83 /   0   0   5  10
GREENVILLE    53  78  55  82 /   0   0   0  39
GREENWOOD     51  77  53  83 /   0   0   0  29

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 222017
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
317 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW SITUATED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. SO FAR THERE HAS ONLY BEEN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF I-55. THERE COULD STILL BE
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS TAPERING OFF BY
AROUND SUNSET.

WITH THIS FRONT...THE DRIER AIR HAS BEEN LAGGING A BIT BEHIND THE
PRESSURE TROUGH...AS UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE JUST RECENTLY MADE IT
INTO THE NORTH WITH THE GRENADA AWOS CHECKING IN AT 59F. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH MISSISSIPPI FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY
AROUND THE PINE BELT.

THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDING
DOWN INTO THE CWA...BRINGING AT LEAST ONE DRY DAY TO THE AREA. IN
SPITE OF THE FROPA...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE NEGLIGENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE HEADING INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK...AS A QUICK-MOVING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES REPLACING THE UPPER RIDGE. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
RETURN BY THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A 1.3-1.4 INCH PWAT AIRMASS
BACK INTO THE DELTA BY THE AFTERNOON. CONTRARY TO THE GFS...THE
NAM/EURO/AND CANADIAN INDICATE A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THUS WE OPTED TO GO ABOVE MAV POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
THIS BRINGS RAIN CHANCES A BIT FARTHER SOUTH TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
MOST OF THE DAYTIME WOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...AND PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. PROGGED 00Z
SBCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS IN THE
40-50 KNOT RANGE OVER THE DELTA SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION INCLUDING SOME SEVERE STORMS. THUS A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INTRODUCED TO THE HWO/GRAPHICAST FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND WILL ELONGATE FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT. /DL/

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
/UPDATE/ THERE CONTINUES TO BE GROWING MODEL CONSENSUS IN A PERIOD
OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY PM THROUGH MONDAY AS A DEEP
NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY SHOWING THIS SIGNAL...WE FELT IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO
INTRODUCE MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO HWO/GRAPHICAST WITH
TODAYS FORECAST PACKAGE. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING...THIS IS STILL IN
THE DAY 6/7 PERIOD AND THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DETAILS WITH RESPECT
TO EXACT TIMING AND MODE THAT CANNOT BE RESOLVED AT THIS POINT IN
TIME. /DL/

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING
IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN AT KGTR/KMEI THIS AFTN WITH CLOUD
BAND BREAKING UP FOR MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS FARTHER EAST. -SHRA
HAVE REDEVELOPED NEAR KGTR TOWARDS KMEI AND WILL CONTINUE VCSH FOR
THOSE SITES THROUGH 00Z. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL BY 00Z-02Z TONIGHT
WITH CLOUDS CLEARING BUT LOW STRATUS/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR
KHBG/KMEI 09Z-14Z WITH IFR CONDS RETURNING. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       54  80  55  84 /   3   0   0  14
MERIDIAN      53  80  49  84 /   5   0   0  12
VICKSBURG     52  80  54  83 /   0   0   3  23
HATTIESBURG   58  83  56  85 /   8   0   5   7
NATCHEZ       56  80  58  83 /   0   0   5  10
GREENVILLE    53  78  55  82 /   0   0   0  39
GREENWOOD     51  77  53  83 /   0   0   0  29

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/ALLEN/28






000
FXUS64 KJAN 221533 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1033 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...COMPLEX OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA AND NOW EXTENDS FROM THE MS/AL BORDER SOUTHWARD ALONG I-59.
THOUGH THERE WAS SOME THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE
MORNING...NO NEW CG STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
TWO. BASED ON THE RELATIVELY STABLE ENVIRONMENT RESULTING FROM THIS
MORNING ACTIVITY/CLOUD SHIELD AND INITIAL TROUGH/WIND SHIFT ALREADY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BELIEVE THE ONGOING SHOWER COMPLEX WILL BE
THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION WE SEE TODAY. HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
ALSO SUPPORTS THIS THEORY. FROM NOW INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
BREAKS WILL DEVELOP IN THE CLOUDS...WITH SOME CLEARING ALREADY
INDICATED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE N/W OF A LINE FROM TVR TO GWO TO
TUP...ALLOWING FOR SOME DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR
NEW DEVELOPMENT OF MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN MS.
GUIDANCE INDICATES CAPES POSSIBLY NEARLY 1000 J/KG SO THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED.
POP/WX HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT LATEST THINKING. MAX TEMPS WERE
ALSO ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES IN EAST MS WHERE SHOWERS ARE
CURRENTLY ONGOING AS THIS IS THE AREA WHERE DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN
STUNTED FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN SHIPPED OUT. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AS OF 15Z ACROSS ALL
SITES WITH SCT LIGHT -SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MS. THE LIGHT
-SHRA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH 18Z BUT SCT REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL OCCUR 18Z-22Z ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE TOWARDS KMEI/KHBG. KGWO/KGLH WINDS
HAVE ALREADY TURNED NORTH WITH SW/W WINDS AT TAF SITES SOUTH AT 15Z.
ALL SITES WILL TURN NORTH THROUGH THE AFTN WITH PEAK WINDS 7-12KT
FROM THE N AND DROPPING TO NEAR CALM BY 2Z THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR KHBG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNRISE WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING TOWARDS 1/2 MILE AT TIMES. /ALLEN/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TEND TO STALL IN SOUTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT DUE TO LACK OF SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL IMPETUS. IN
NORTHERN ZONES SOME COOL AIR INFLUX WILL BE NOTICEABLE AND BY DAWN
WEDNESDAY LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 50 DEGREES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES LOWS WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 WITH ENOUGH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG. ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MS THIS
COULD BE A SCENARIO WHERE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPS IF WINDS DIE DOWN
ENOUGH AND THIS IS SOMETHING THE NEXT SHIFT WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
ON.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. IN SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR THE STALLED WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER MORNING
LOW CLOUDS ABATE...BUT PRECIP CHANCES ARE VERY LOW THANKS TO SHORT
WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FLOW SHOULD BE TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTH DECIDEDLY WHICH MAY SET UP MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR A POTENTIAL BOUT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. /BB/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER BEGINS THE
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE LONG
TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF FRONTS APPROACHING THE REGION.
THE FIRST COMES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST AS AN UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW SPIN ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA. MODELS AGREE THAT THIS FRONT
WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WASH OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. THIS WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO A LOT. HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
I-20 AND RIDGING WILL EVEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA MOSTLY DRY AND WARM.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN EXIT TO
THE EAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND INTENSITY BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS
IS FASTER AND WEAKER WITH THE SFC LOW. THE EURO TAKES A BIT LONGER
TO BRING THE LOW AND FRONT THROUGH AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA MUCH LONGER. MODELS SHOW PW VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES FOR THIS
SYSTEM SO EFFICIENT RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR. IN ADDITION TO
RAINFALL...PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD FOR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS
WELL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A
LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE
BEGINNING OF MAY. /28/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/ALLEN/BB/28







000
FXUS64 KJAN 220916
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
415 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST CONCENTRATED NORTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY...ARE
PUSHING INTO THE HEART OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS A
DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
INSTABILITY BEING TAPPED TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS IS MARGINAL AND
PRIMARILY OF AN ELEVATED NATURE SO THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
VERY LOW. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE A
LITTLE DISJOINTED AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TIED TO WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TODAY. HIRES
MODELS AND MORE TRUSTWORTHY GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO THE
IDEA THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME PRODUCING A
GREAT DEAL OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS DEPARTURE...THUS POPS WERE DEFINITELY HIGHEST IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF ZONES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE MENTIONED LAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO KICK UP
MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MS. IN THIS LATTER AREA INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE ROOTED AT THE SURFACE AFTER MIDDAY BUT STILL UNIMPRESSIVE.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
TEND TO STALL IN SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT DUE TO LACK OF SUFFICIENT
UPPER LEVEL IMPETUS. IN NORTHERN ZONES SOME COOL AIR INFLUX WILL BE
NOTICEABLE AND BY DAWN WEDNESDAY LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 50 DEGREES
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...IN FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WITH ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG.
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MS THIS COULD BE A SCENARIO WHERE SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOPS IF WINDS DIE DOWN ENOUGH AND THIS IS SOMETHING THE NEXT
SHIFT WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. IN SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR THE STALLED WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER MORNING
LOW CLOUDS ABATE...BUT PRECIP CHANCES ARE VERY LOW THANKS TO SHORT
WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FLOW SHOULD BE TURNING
AROUND TO THE SOUTH DECIDEDLY WHICH MAY SET UP MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR A POTENTIAL BOUT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. /BB/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER BEGINS THE
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE LONG
TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF FRONTS APPROACHING THE REGION.
THE FIRST COMES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST AS AN UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW SPIN ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA. MODELS AGREE THAT THIS FRONT
WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WASH OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. THIS WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO A LOT. HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
I-20 AND RIDGING WILL EVEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA MOSTLY DRY AND WARM.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN EXIT TO
THE EAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND INTENSITY BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS
IS FASTER AND WEAKER WITH THE SFC LOW. THE EURO TAKES A BIT LONGER
TO BRING THE LOW AND FRONT THROUGH AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA MUCH LONGER. MODELS SHOW PW VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES FOR THIS
SYSTEM SO EFFICIENT RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR. IN ADDITION TO
RAINFALL...PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD FOR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS
WELL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A
LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE
BEGINNING OF MAY. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR FLIGHT CATS DUE MAINLY TO CEILINGS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING OF
EXPERIENCING IFR FLIGHT CATS WILL BE AT GLH AND PIB/HBG. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AERODROME FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST WILL KICK UP A
LITTLE BEHIND A FRONT MOVING THROUGH BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
LESS THAN 20 MPH. FOR TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE
MAINLY TO FOG ARE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       77  54  80  55 /  40   5   1   6
MERIDIAN      76  53  79  49 /  55   9   1   6
VICKSBURG     78  53  80  55 /  18   3   2   8
HATTIESBURG   80  59  82  56 /  37  11   4   7
NATCHEZ       77  57  80  59 /  19   4   4   8
GREENVILLE    79  51  78  55 /  15   2   0   7
GREENWOOD     78  50  78  53 /  25   2   0   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/28







000
FXUS64 KJAN 220241 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
941 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THIS EVENING
WELL OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR MORE ACTIVITY
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPS
AND DEWPTS. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MVFR OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND LOWER
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH IT. ALREADY...LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN IN THE VICINITY OF KGLH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. /26/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WATER VAPOR LOOPS REVEAL A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
OZARK REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RADAR DATA SHOWING AN
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. PER LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE...
THERE IS ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE LIFT TO SUPPORT
MAINTAINING ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING EASTWARD INTO
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RATHER VEERED AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO PROVIDE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE 60F. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR GETTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING NEAR SEVERE LIMITS.

AS WE GO THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK FRONTAL LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...INGREDIENTS
FOR GETTING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LACKING AND WILL CONTINUE
LEAVE OUT OF THE HAZARD PRODUCTS. AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE ARKLAMISS AND THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
TO CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG POTENTIAL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DEPENDING HOW MUCH BL DECOUPLING TAKES
PLACE.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE POTENTIAL FOR A POTENT STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK STILL SHOWS IN THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THE TRENDS
CONTINUE...WE WILL NEED TO PLACE A MENTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE
HAZARD PRODUCTS. THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. /EC/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE LONG TERM...SHOWING A SERIES OF FRONTS AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FROM MID WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE MORE RAIN IS HEADED THIS WAY. GUIDANCE POPS AND TEMPS SEEMED OK.
MADE SOME TWEAKS OVER THE WEEKEND...WHERE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 80 DEG F.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY...THE AREA WILL BE DRY FOR A DAY OR SO.
ANOTHER FRONT PASSES AROUND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOW IT APPEARS
TO BE DRY. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY THURSDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY STALLS AND SEEMS TO GET DISPLACED BY ANOTHER BOUNDARY THAT
STALLS OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA...SO LEFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
INSTABILITY SEEMED GOOD ENOUGH FOR THUNDER...BUT NOT QUITE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH A STALLED
BOUNDARY AND INCREASING MOISTURE...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
INCREASE. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE
AREA...KEEPING THE CHANCE RAIN CHANCES GOING. BY MONDAY...A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS APPROACHES THE AREA. OPTED TO LEAVE THE HWO
CLEAR AT THIS POINT...SINCE THE SYSTEM WAS JUST MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST. THE GFS HAS DIFFERENT TIMING AND POSITION...BUT THE
EUROPEAN MODEL SHOW A 130KT JET STREAK MOVING ALONG I-20 ON THE BACK
SIDE OF A DECENT COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THE MODELS WANT
TO BRING IN UPPER 60/LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS. WITH INCREASING CAPE BUT NOT
IMPRESSIVE VALUES AT THIS POINT...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...A WELL
POSITIONED JET STREAK...A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH...A
DECENT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD DEVELOP EARLY NEXT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
WERE BRINGING IN HIGH DEWPOINTS ADJUSTED THEM DOWN FOR NOW. KEPT
VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART. WHILE THERE WAS
PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST FLOW...MODELS DIFFERED ON DEEP MOISTURE RETURN.
GENERALLY WENT WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS...DID LOWER VALUES A BIT ON
SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
COULD BE WARMER IF CLOUDS ARE LATE TO DEVELOP. /07/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       59  77  55  78 /  37  43   6   6
MERIDIAN      57  78  53  81 /  27  53   6   6
VICKSBURG     60  78  54  79 /  43  34   3   6
HATTIESBURG   58  81  57  82 /  13  44  16   3
NATCHEZ       59  77  56  78 /  22  31  11   4
GREENVILLE    61  77  50  77 /  64  24   3   6
GREENWOOD     61  77  48  77 /  61  36   3   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 212101
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
401 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WATER VAPOR LOOPS REVEAL A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
OZARK REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH RADAR DATA SHOWING AN
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. PER LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE...
THERE IS ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE LIFT TO SUPPORT
MAINTAINING ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING EASTWARD INTO
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RATHER VEERED AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO PROVIDE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE 60F. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR GETTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING NEAR SEVERE LIMITS.

AS WE GO THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK FRONTAL LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...INGREDIENTS
FOR GETTING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LACKING AND WILL CONTINUE
LEAVE OUT OF THE HAZARD PRODUCTS. AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE ARKLAMISS AND THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
TO CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG POTENTIAL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DEPENDING HOW MUCH BL DECOUPLING TAKES
PLACE.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE POTENTIAL FOR A POTENT STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK STILL SHOWS IN THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THE TRENDS
CONTINUE...WE WILL NEED TO PLACE A MENTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE
HAZARD PRODUCTS. THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. /EC/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE LONG TERM...SHOWING A SERIES OF FRONTS AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FROM MID WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKS
LIKE MORE RAIN IS HEADED THIS WAY. GUIDANCE POPS AND TEMPS SEEMED OK.
MADE SOME TWEAKS OVER THE WEEKEND...WHERE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 80 DEG F.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY...THE AREA WILL BE DRY FOR A DAY OR SO.
ANOTHER FRONT PASSES AROUND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOW IT APPEARS
TO BE DRY. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY THURSDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY STALLS AND SEEMS TO GET DISPLACED BY ANOTHER BOUNDARY THAT
STALLS OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA...SO LEFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
INSTABILITY SEEMED GOOD ENOUGH FOR THUNDER...BUT NOT QUITE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH A STALLED
BOUNDARY AND INCREASING MOISTURE...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
INCREASE. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE
AREA...KEEPING THE CHANCE RAIN CHANCES GOING. BY MONDAY...A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS APPROACHES THE AREA. OPTED TO LEAVE THE HWO
CLEAR AT THIS POINT...SINCE THE SYSTEM WAS JUST MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST. THE GFS HAS DIFFERENT TIMING AND POSITION...BUT THE
EUROPEAN MODEL SHOW A 130KT JET STREAK MOVING ALONG I-20 ON THE BACK
SIDE OF A DECENT COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THE MODELS WANT
TO BRING IN UPPER 60/LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS. WITH INCREASING CAPE BUT NOT
IMPRESSIVE VALUES AT THIS POINT...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...A WELL
POSITIONED JET STREAK...A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH...A
DECENT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD DEVELOP EARLY NEXT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
WERE BRINGING IN HIGH DEWPOINTS ADJUSTED THEM DOWN FOR NOW. KEPT
VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART. WHILE THERE WAS
PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST FLOW...MODELS DIFFERED ON DEEP MOISTURE RETURN.
GENERALLY WENT WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS...DID LOWER VALUES A BIT ON
SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
COULD BE WARMER IF CLOUDS ARE LATE TO DEVELOP. /07/

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF MID AFTERNOON MOSTLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WAS
NOTED WITH SOME SCT-BKN LOWER VFR DECKS. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH
AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS CONFINED ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR.
A STRAY STORM IN THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND HBG.
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. /17/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       59  77  55  78 /  37  43   6   6
MERIDIAN      57  78  53  81 /  27  53   6   6
VICKSBURG     60  78  54  79 /  43  34   3   6
HATTIESBURG   58  81  57  82 /  13  44  16   3
NATCHEZ       59  77  56  78 /  22  31  11   4
GREENVILLE    61  77  50  77 /  64  24   3   6
GREENWOOD     61  77  48  77 /  61  36   3   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

EC/07/17/







000
FXUS64 KJAN 211434
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
934 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING AND NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY FOR THE NEAR TERM. HAVE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES
SLIGHLY FROM NE LA THROUGH CENTRAL MS WHERE THE AIRMASS NEEDS A BIT
MORE MOISTENING TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOG HAS DISSIPATED AND
HAVE REMOVED FROM MORNING FORECAST. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF MID MORNING THE LAST OF THE LOW STRATUS WAS
LIFTING. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY
CONFINED ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. A STRAY
STORM IN THESE AREAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. DURING THE DAY...EXPECT
SOUTH WINDS 7-12 KNOTS. RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER
SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. /17/BB/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A MODEST AND PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW WITH EQUALLY MODEST LOBES OF ASSOCIATED ENERGY
HELPING INSTIGATE SOME PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION. FOR THE BULK OF
TODAY THE FIRST LOBE OF ENERGY WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER FROM THE
WEST AND PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT (MAINLY ELEVATED IN NATURE) WHICH COULD GENERATE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER ANTICIPATED. WORTH
MENTIONING THIS MORNING IS THE PROSPECT OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 IN MISSISSIPPI AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE CATALYZED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE. AT THIS
TIME A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY ALTHOUGH WE WILL
MONITOR. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 80 DEGREES...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.

BETTER INSTABILITY AND LIFT COMBINATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WILL EXIST OVER EAST TX AND NEAR THE SABINE RIVER. THIS IS
WHERE LOOSELY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND PUSH
SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE EVENING. BUT
INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE CONSIDERABLY AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO WESTERN
ZONES...ALTHOUGH A DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
STORMS SHOULD AFFECT MY NORTHWESTERN ZONES TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUCH MORE HIT OR MISS ALTHOUGH A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN MOST AREAS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MILD
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

OF THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED LOBES OF ENERGY...THE SECOND LOBE SHOULD
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR FIRING UP STORMS TO OUR WEST LATE TONIGHT AND
WILL WORK WITH AN INCOMING WEAK FRONT TO HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ACROSS THE HEART OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY. ALONG
WITH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE RATHER MARGINAL ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY...WITH UNPHASED LIFT ALOFT AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS
NOT OPTIMUM FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. WE SHOULD STILL SEE RAIN
AT A GOOD MANY AREAS (PARTICULARLY EAST OF I-55) BUT ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR IN QUITE A FEW SPOTS THAT DO SEE RAIN AND ANY
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TEMPORARY CLOUD BREAKS TO GET TEMPS UP TO AROUND 80
DEGREES.

EXPECT PRECIP TO BE DIMINISHING QUICKLY OR EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING FOR THE OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR
(WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S) SHOULD PENETRATE BY DAWN WEDNESDAY AT LEAST
DOWN TO I-20...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE
SOUTH OF I-20 TO REMAIN MILD AND MOIST WHICH MAY PROMOTE LOCALLY
DENSE FOG. THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH. /BB/

LONG TERM...LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM...SHOWING A SERIES OF FRONTS AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE MORE RAIN IS HEADED THIS WAY. GUIDANCE
POPS AND TEMPS SEEMED OK. MADE SOME TWEAKS OVER THE WEEKEND...WHERE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 80.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY...THE AREA WILL BE DRY FOR A DAY OR SO.
ANOTHER FRONT PASSES AROUND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOW IT APPEARS
TO BE DRY. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY THURSDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY STALLS AND SEEMS TO GET DISPLACED BY ANOTHER BOUNDARY THAT
STALLS OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA...SO LEFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
INSTABILITY SEEMED GOOD ENOUGH FOR THUNDER...BUT NOT QUITE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH A STALLED
BOUNDARY AND INCREASING MOISTURE...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
INCREASE. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE
AREA...KEEPING THE CHANCE RAIN CHANCES GOING. BY MONDAY...A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS APPROACHES THE AREA. OPTED TO LEAVE THE HWO
CLEAR AT THIS POINT...SINCE THE SYSTEM WAS JUST MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE SIG TOR PARAMETERS BLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS HAS DIFFERENT TIMING AND POSITION...BUT
THE EUROPEAN SHOW A 130KT JET STREAK MOVING ALONG I-20 ON THE BACK
SIDE OF A DECENT COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THE MODELS
WANT TO BRING IN UPPER 60/LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS. WITH INCREASING
CAPE...NOT CRAZY VALUES AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE... A WELL
POSITIONED JET STREAK...A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROUGH...A
DECENT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD DEVELOP EARLY NEXT.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
WERE BRINGING IN HIGH DEWPOINTS ADJUSTED THEM DOWN FOR NOW. KEPT
VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART. WHILE THERE WAS
PLENTY OF SOUTHWEST FLOW...MODELS DIFFERED ON DEEP MOISTURE RETURN.
GENERALLY WENT WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS...DID LOWER VALUES A BIT ON
SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
COULD BE WARMER IF CLOUDS ARE LATE TO DEVELOP.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$









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