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000
FXUS64 KJAN 020221 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
921 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR THIS UPDATE...POPS WERE INCREASED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A FEW MODELS...ALONG WITH THE HI-RES
HRRR...HINT AT A SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING SOME LIGHT
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND PUSHING
INTO OUR CWA FORCED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALL OTHER ASPECTS OF THE
FORECAST LOOK PRETTY GOOD TONIGHT. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN AT ANY OF THE SITES.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THE TREND OF EARLY MORNING MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL ADD VCTS FOR
JAN...MEI AND HBG FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST
CONVECTION WILL DEVELP FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH THE MID TO SRN
MS VALLEY. TONIGHT EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO LINGER IN THE W/NW
DUE TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES TO
THE E. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM DUE TO DECENT LAPSE RATES
BUT FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK. CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT AND KEEP
TEMPS UP IN THE LOW/MID 60S OVERNIGHT. INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IN SOME WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S TOMORROW ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT DUE TO SOME WEAK S/WV
LIFT AND INSTABILITY...SHOWERS/STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY MORNING AS WE
CONTINUE TO WARM IN RESPONSE TO A ~1005MB LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

AS THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS
TO MID MS VALLEY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP WITH NEAR
90KTS AT 500MB AND 130KTS AT 300MB. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO
THE N THROUGH THE MID SOUTH...EXPECT INCREASING WAA AND STRONG FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO MID/UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS AND AROUND 20-25KTS 0-3KM BULK SHEAR/40-50KTS 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR WHERE THIS REGION IS
CLOSER TO THE JET MAX AND BETTER FLOW ALOFT. H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ~6-7
DEG. C WITH SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY MOISTURE WILL AID IN DECENT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT. EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE I-20 CORRIDOR GOING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH STORMS WEAKENING. DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER
40S. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH RAPIDLY SE AND OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH
A COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN SATURDAY. FAST PACED ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WILL PUSH THE FAIR WEATHER MAKER EAST BY SUNDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW UP AND OVER THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. /26/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
HOURS. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT
GLH/GWO/GTR THAT MAY BRIEF BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO RETURN ONCE AGAIN AFTER
07-08Z AND THIS WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO MOST SITES THROUGH
16/17Z THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AT 5-8KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       63  83  66  83 /  17  25  10  49
MERIDIAN      61  81  63  82 /  17  21  14  33
VICKSBURG     64  83  67  82 /  17  27  11  54
HATTIESBURG   64  82  66  82 /  17  16   8  28
NATCHEZ       64  84  66  83 /  17  25  10  42
GREENVILLE    63  80  67  78 /  34  43  14  66
GREENWOOD     62  80  66  80 /  31  39  14  64

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 020221 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
921 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR THIS UPDATE...POPS WERE INCREASED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A FEW MODELS...ALONG WITH THE HI-RES
HRRR...HINT AT A SMALL SCALE DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING SOME LIGHT
CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND PUSHING
INTO OUR CWA FORCED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALL OTHER ASPECTS OF THE
FORECAST LOOK PRETTY GOOD TONIGHT. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAIN AT ANY OF THE SITES.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THE TREND OF EARLY MORNING MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL ADD VCTS FOR
JAN...MEI AND HBG FOR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST
CONVECTION WILL DEVELP FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH THE MID TO SRN
MS VALLEY. TONIGHT EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO LINGER IN THE W/NW
DUE TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES TO
THE E. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM DUE TO DECENT LAPSE RATES
BUT FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK. CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT AND KEEP
TEMPS UP IN THE LOW/MID 60S OVERNIGHT. INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IN SOME WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S TOMORROW ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT DUE TO SOME WEAK S/WV
LIFT AND INSTABILITY...SHOWERS/STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY MORNING AS WE
CONTINUE TO WARM IN RESPONSE TO A ~1005MB LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

AS THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS
TO MID MS VALLEY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP WITH NEAR
90KTS AT 500MB AND 130KTS AT 300MB. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO
THE N THROUGH THE MID SOUTH...EXPECT INCREASING WAA AND STRONG FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO MID/UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS AND AROUND 20-25KTS 0-3KM BULK SHEAR/40-50KTS 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR WHERE THIS REGION IS
CLOSER TO THE JET MAX AND BETTER FLOW ALOFT. H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ~6-7
DEG. C WITH SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY MOISTURE WILL AID IN DECENT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT. EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE I-20 CORRIDOR GOING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH STORMS WEAKENING. DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER
40S. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH RAPIDLY SE AND OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH
A COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN SATURDAY. FAST PACED ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WILL PUSH THE FAIR WEATHER MAKER EAST BY SUNDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW UP AND OVER THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. /26/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
HOURS. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT
GLH/GWO/GTR THAT MAY BRIEF BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO RETURN ONCE AGAIN AFTER
07-08Z AND THIS WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO MOST SITES THROUGH
16/17Z THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AT 5-8KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       63  83  66  83 /  17  25  10  49
MERIDIAN      61  81  63  82 /  17  21  14  33
VICKSBURG     64  83  67  82 /  17  27  11  54
HATTIESBURG   64  82  66  82 /  17  16   8  28
NATCHEZ       64  84  66  83 /  17  25  10  42
GREENVILLE    63  80  67  78 /  34  43  14  66
GREENWOOD     62  80  66  80 /  31  39  14  64

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 012149
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
449 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH THE MID TO SRN
MS VALLEY. TONIGHT EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO LINGER IN THE W/NW
DUE TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES TO
THE E. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM DUE TO DECENT LAPSE RATES
BUT FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK. CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT AND KEEP
TEMPS UP IN THE LOW/MID 60S OVERNIGHT. INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IN SOME WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S TOMORROW ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT DUE TO SOME WEAK S/WV
LIFT AND INSTABILITY...SHOWERS/STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY MORNING AS WE
CONTINUE TO WARM IN RESPONSE TO A ~1005MB LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

AS THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS
TO MID MS VALLEY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP WITH NEAR
90KTS AT 500MB AND 130KTS AT 300MB. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO
THE N THROUGH THE MID SOUTH...EXPECT INCREASING WAA AND STRONG FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO MID/UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS AND AROUND 20-25KTS 0-3KM BULK SHEAR/40-50KTS 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR WHERE THIS REGION IS
CLOSER TO THE JET MAX AND BETTER FLOW ALOFT. H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ~6-7
DEG. C WITH SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY MOISTURE WILL AID IN DECENT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT. EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE I-20 CORRIDOR GOING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH STORMS WEAKENING. DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER
40S. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH RAPIDLY SE AND OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH
A COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN SATURDAY. FAST PACED ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WILL PUSH THE FAIR WEATHER MAKER EAST BY SUNDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW UP AND OVER THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
HOURS. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT
GLH/GWO/GTR THAT MAY BRIEF BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO RETURN ONCE AGAIN AFTER
07-08Z AND THIS WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO MOST SITES THROUGH
16/17Z THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AT 5-8KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       63  83  66  83 /  13  25  10  49
MERIDIAN      61  81  63  82 /  14  21  14  33
VICKSBURG     64  83  67  82 /  14  27  11  54
HATTIESBURG   64  82  66  82 /  10  16   8  28
NATCHEZ       64  84  66  83 /  12  25  10  42
GREENVILLE    63  80  67  78 /  34  43  14  66
GREENWOOD     62  80  66  80 /  31  39  14  64

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/26/15





000
FXUS64 KJAN 012149
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
449 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH THE MID TO SRN
MS VALLEY. TONIGHT EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO LINGER IN THE W/NW
DUE TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES TO
THE E. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM DUE TO DECENT LAPSE RATES
BUT FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK. CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT AND KEEP
TEMPS UP IN THE LOW/MID 60S OVERNIGHT. INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IN SOME WARMER TEMPS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S TOMORROW ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT DUE TO SOME WEAK S/WV
LIFT AND INSTABILITY...SHOWERS/STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY MORNING AS WE
CONTINUE TO WARM IN RESPONSE TO A ~1005MB LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

AS THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS
TO MID MS VALLEY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP WITH NEAR
90KTS AT 500MB AND 130KTS AT 300MB. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO
THE N THROUGH THE MID SOUTH...EXPECT INCREASING WAA AND STRONG FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO MID/UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS AND AROUND 20-25KTS 0-3KM BULK SHEAR/40-50KTS 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR WHERE THIS REGION IS
CLOSER TO THE JET MAX AND BETTER FLOW ALOFT. H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ~6-7
DEG. C WITH SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY MOISTURE WILL AID IN DECENT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT. EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE I-20 CORRIDOR GOING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH STORMS WEAKENING. DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER
40S. RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH RAPIDLY SE AND OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH
A COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN SATURDAY. FAST PACED ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WILL PUSH THE FAIR WEATHER MAKER EAST BY SUNDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW UP AND OVER THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
HOURS. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT
GLH/GWO/GTR THAT MAY BRIEF BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO RETURN ONCE AGAIN AFTER
07-08Z AND THIS WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO MOST SITES THROUGH
16/17Z THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AT 5-8KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       63  83  66  83 /  13  25  10  49
MERIDIAN      61  81  63  82 /  14  21  14  33
VICKSBURG     64  83  67  82 /  14  27  11  54
HATTIESBURG   64  82  66  82 /  10  16   8  28
NATCHEZ       64  84  66  83 /  12  25  10  42
GREENVILLE    63  80  67  78 /  34  43  14  66
GREENWOOD     62  80  66  80 /  31  39  14  64

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/26/15




000
FXUS64 KJAN 011541 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1041 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE BETTER
MIXING AIDS IN CLOUDS LIFTING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG/N OF
I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY DUE TO UPPER S/WV MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS THROUGH AND E OF
THE REGION. EXPECT INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO AID IN SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TODAY...WITH ARW INDICATING MORE
CHANCES FOR STORMS IN N/NE MS AFTER 21Z. HRRR IS NOT INDICATING AS
MUCH ACTIVITY AS GLOBAL GUIDANCE SO LOWERED POPS ALONG/N OF I-20 BUT
DUE TO SOME WEAKENING CAPPING AND GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT...POPS/WX
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. DUE TO SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 10-20KTS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IN A STRONG STORM OR SO. BUT WITH HRRR BACKING OFF ON ACTIVITY AND
SOME CAPPING LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...KEPT HWO CLEAR. TEMPS
LOOK GOOD AS WE WILL MIX OUT SOME OF THE CLOUDS AND WARM NICELY.
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACCORDING TO CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE
STRATUS TO LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOST TAF SITES BECOMING VFR
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY NORTH OF
I-20 WHICH WILL BRING BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO GLH/GWO/GTR. THE
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 5-8KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS MY NORTH.  THIS WILL BE AS A RESULT OF A SHORTWAVE...
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS.
THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE...RIDGING BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL CAUSE
THE BOUNDARY PLAGUING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TO LIFT NORTH AND
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.  DESPITE THE TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WITH A WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...IT`LL STILL BE ABLE TO SPARK SOME
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME ACTIVITY
LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING.

WHILE STORMS AREN`T EXPECTED TO BE AS VIGOROUS AS THOSE OBSERVED ON
TUESDAY...WITH SOME MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL RESIDING OVER THE
REGION...I CAN`T RULE OUT THAT AN INTENSE STORM COULD YIELD SOME
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THAT SAID...BASED OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT
LOOKS TO BE AN UPHILL BATTLE FOR SUCH CONVECTION AS A LOW-LEVEL CAP
LOOKS TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...IN
ADDITION TO THE BEFORE MENTIONED INCREASED RIDGING BUILDING THROUGH
THE REGION. DUE TO THE CURRENT LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH STORMS...I`LL
LEAVE THE HWO CLEAR FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

WARM HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.  ONCE AGAIN...THE
RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING IN THIS AIRMASS...COUPLED WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WILL CAUSE
SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. /19/

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MID LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW WITH SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD 60S DEWPOINTS
WILL HAVE ALREADY BEEN IN PLACE FOR SOME TIME WITH STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AT H85.

NICE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TAKE SHAPE
FROM NW AR TO N TX. CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE AS SUCH BY AFTERNOON TO WASH AWAY THE
CAP AND ALLOW A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

GFS/EC HAVE BACKED OFF THE CONVECTIVE INDICES A BIT THIS RUN...ONLY
SHOWING ABOUT 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE. THIS PROBABLY OWING TO THE
DEPTH OF LOW LAYER WARM AIR. NEVERTHELESS...H7-H5 LAPSE RATES STILL
LOOK GOOD AT 7-7.5 C/KM AND 25-30 VERTICAL TOTALS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH 50+ KNOTS OVER NORTH MS AND INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY. SPEAKING OF NORTH MS...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AND
TIME OPTIMIZED FOR BEST UTILIZATION OF THE AMBIENT CAPE...THAT AREA
SHOULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH RAPIDLY SE AND OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH
A COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN SATURDAY. FAST PACED ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WILL PUSH THE FAIR WEATHER MAKER EAST BY SUNDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW UP AND OVER THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80  63  83  65 /  19  14  24  10
MERIDIAN      80  61  82  63 /  20  14  21  14
VICKSBURG     81  64  84  65 /  18  14  27  11
HATTIESBURG   84  64  84  64 /   8  10  16   8
NATCHEZ       81  64  83  65 /  10  12  25  10
GREENVILLE    78  63  81  66 /  29  28  44  14
GREENWOOD     79  62  81  65 /  29  26  41  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/15/19/26




000
FXUS64 KJAN 011541 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1041 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE BETTER
MIXING AIDS IN CLOUDS LIFTING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE INCREASING CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG/N OF
I-20 CORRIDOR TODAY DUE TO UPPER S/WV MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS THROUGH AND E OF
THE REGION. EXPECT INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO AID IN SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TODAY...WITH ARW INDICATING MORE
CHANCES FOR STORMS IN N/NE MS AFTER 21Z. HRRR IS NOT INDICATING AS
MUCH ACTIVITY AS GLOBAL GUIDANCE SO LOWERED POPS ALONG/N OF I-20 BUT
DUE TO SOME WEAKENING CAPPING AND GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT...POPS/WX
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. DUE TO SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 10-20KTS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IN A STRONG STORM OR SO. BUT WITH HRRR BACKING OFF ON ACTIVITY AND
SOME CAPPING LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...KEPT HWO CLEAR. TEMPS
LOOK GOOD AS WE WILL MIX OUT SOME OF THE CLOUDS AND WARM NICELY.
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACCORDING TO CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE
STRATUS TO LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOST TAF SITES BECOMING VFR
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY NORTH OF
I-20 WHICH WILL BRING BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO GLH/GWO/GTR. THE
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 5-8KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS MY NORTH.  THIS WILL BE AS A RESULT OF A SHORTWAVE...
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS.
THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE...RIDGING BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL CAUSE
THE BOUNDARY PLAGUING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TO LIFT NORTH AND
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.  DESPITE THE TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WITH A WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...IT`LL STILL BE ABLE TO SPARK SOME
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME ACTIVITY
LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING.

WHILE STORMS AREN`T EXPECTED TO BE AS VIGOROUS AS THOSE OBSERVED ON
TUESDAY...WITH SOME MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL RESIDING OVER THE
REGION...I CAN`T RULE OUT THAT AN INTENSE STORM COULD YIELD SOME
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THAT SAID...BASED OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT
LOOKS TO BE AN UPHILL BATTLE FOR SUCH CONVECTION AS A LOW-LEVEL CAP
LOOKS TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...IN
ADDITION TO THE BEFORE MENTIONED INCREASED RIDGING BUILDING THROUGH
THE REGION. DUE TO THE CURRENT LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH STORMS...I`LL
LEAVE THE HWO CLEAR FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

WARM HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.  ONCE AGAIN...THE
RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING IN THIS AIRMASS...COUPLED WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WILL CAUSE
SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. /19/

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MID LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW WITH SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD 60S DEWPOINTS
WILL HAVE ALREADY BEEN IN PLACE FOR SOME TIME WITH STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AT H85.

NICE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TAKE SHAPE
FROM NW AR TO N TX. CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE AS SUCH BY AFTERNOON TO WASH AWAY THE
CAP AND ALLOW A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

GFS/EC HAVE BACKED OFF THE CONVECTIVE INDICES A BIT THIS RUN...ONLY
SHOWING ABOUT 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE. THIS PROBABLY OWING TO THE
DEPTH OF LOW LAYER WARM AIR. NEVERTHELESS...H7-H5 LAPSE RATES STILL
LOOK GOOD AT 7-7.5 C/KM AND 25-30 VERTICAL TOTALS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH 50+ KNOTS OVER NORTH MS AND INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY. SPEAKING OF NORTH MS...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AND
TIME OPTIMIZED FOR BEST UTILIZATION OF THE AMBIENT CAPE...THAT AREA
SHOULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH RAPIDLY SE AND OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH
A COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN SATURDAY. FAST PACED ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WILL PUSH THE FAIR WEATHER MAKER EAST BY SUNDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW UP AND OVER THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80  63  83  65 /  19  14  24  10
MERIDIAN      80  61  82  63 /  20  14  21  14
VICKSBURG     81  64  84  65 /  18  14  27  11
HATTIESBURG   84  64  84  64 /   8  10  16   8
NATCHEZ       81  64  83  65 /  10  12  25  10
GREENVILLE    78  63  81  66 /  29  28  44  14
GREENWOOD     79  62  81  65 /  29  26  41  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/15/19/26





000
FXUS64 KJAN 010848
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
348 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS MY NORTH.  THIS WILL BE AS A RESULT OF A SHORTWAVE...
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS.
THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE...RIDGING BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL CAUSE
THE BOUNDARY PLAGUING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TO LIFT NORTH AND
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.  DESPITE THE TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WITH A WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...IT`LL STILL BE ABLE TO SPARK SOME
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME ACTIVITY
LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING.

WHILE STORMS AREN`T EXPECTED TO BE AS VIGOROUS AS THOSE OBSERVED ON
TUESDAY...WITH SOME MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL RESIDING OVER THE
REGION...I CAN`T RULE OUT THAT AN INTENSE STORM COULD YIELD SOME
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THAT SAID...BASED OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT
LOOKS TO BE AN UPHILL BATTLE FOR SUCH CONVECTION AS A LOW-LEVEL CAP
LOOKS TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...IN
ADDITION TO THE BEFORE MENTIONED INCREASED RIDGING BUILDING THROUGH
THE REGION. DUE TO THE CURRENT LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH STORMS...I`LL
LEAVE THE HWO CLEAR FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

WARM HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.  ONCE AGAIN...THE
RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING IN THIS AIRMASS...COUPLED WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WILL CAUSE
SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. /19/

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MID LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW WITH SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD 60S DEWPOINTS
WILL HAVE ALREADY BEEN IN PLACE FOR SOME TIME WITH STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AT H85.

NICE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TAKE SHAPE
FROM NW AR TO N TX. CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE AS SUCH BY AFTERNOON TO WASH AWAY THE
CAP AND ALLOW A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

GFS/EC HAVE BACKED OFF THE CONVECTIVE INDICES A BIT THIS RUN...ONLY
SHOWING ABOUT 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE. THIS PROBABLY OWING TO THE
DEPTH OF LOW LAYER WARM AIR. NEVERTHELESS...H7-H5 LAPSE RATES STILL
LOOK GOOD AT 7-7.5 C/KM AND 25-30 VERTICAL TOTALS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH 50+ KNOTS OVER NORTH MS AND INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY. SPEAKING OF NORTH MS...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AND
TIME OPTIMIZED FOR BEST UTILIZATION OF THE AMBIENT CAPE...THAT AREA
SHOULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH RAPIDLY SE AND OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH
A COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN SATURDAY. FAST PACED ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WILL PUSH THE FAIR WETHER MAKER EAST BY SUNDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW UP AND OVER THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES AT SITES IF OBSERVED ON
STATION.  CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS...AND
SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80  63  83  65 /  24  14  24  10
MERIDIAN      80  61  82  63 /  28  14  21  14
VICKSBURG     81  64  84  65 /  19  14  27  11
HATTIESBURG   84  64  84  64 /   8  10  16   8
NATCHEZ       81  64  83  65 /  10  12  25  10
GREENVILLE    78  63  81  66 /  35  28  44  14
GREENWOOD     79  62  81  65 /  36  26  41  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/26




000
FXUS64 KJAN 010848
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
348 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS MY NORTH.  THIS WILL BE AS A RESULT OF A SHORTWAVE...
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS.
THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE...RIDGING BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL CAUSE
THE BOUNDARY PLAGUING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TO LIFT NORTH AND
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.  DESPITE THE TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WITH A WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...IT`LL STILL BE ABLE TO SPARK SOME
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME ACTIVITY
LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING.

WHILE STORMS AREN`T EXPECTED TO BE AS VIGOROUS AS THOSE OBSERVED ON
TUESDAY...WITH SOME MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL RESIDING OVER THE
REGION...I CAN`T RULE OUT THAT AN INTENSE STORM COULD YIELD SOME
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THAT SAID...BASED OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT
LOOKS TO BE AN UPHILL BATTLE FOR SUCH CONVECTION AS A LOW-LEVEL CAP
LOOKS TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...IN
ADDITION TO THE BEFORE MENTIONED INCREASED RIDGING BUILDING THROUGH
THE REGION. DUE TO THE CURRENT LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH STORMS...I`LL
LEAVE THE HWO CLEAR FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

WARM HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.  ONCE AGAIN...THE
RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING IN THIS AIRMASS...COUPLED WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WILL CAUSE
SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. /19/

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MID LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW WITH SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD 60S DEWPOINTS
WILL HAVE ALREADY BEEN IN PLACE FOR SOME TIME WITH STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AT H85.

NICE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TAKE SHAPE
FROM NW AR TO N TX. CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE AS SUCH BY AFTERNOON TO WASH AWAY THE
CAP AND ALLOW A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

GFS/EC HAVE BACKED OFF THE CONVECTIVE INDICES A BIT THIS RUN...ONLY
SHOWING ABOUT 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE. THIS PROBABLY OWING TO THE
DEPTH OF LOW LAYER WARM AIR. NEVERTHELESS...H7-H5 LAPSE RATES STILL
LOOK GOOD AT 7-7.5 C/KM AND 25-30 VERTICAL TOTALS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH 50+ KNOTS OVER NORTH MS AND INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY. SPEAKING OF NORTH MS...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AND
TIME OPTIMIZED FOR BEST UTILIZATION OF THE AMBIENT CAPE...THAT AREA
SHOULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH RAPIDLY SE AND OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH
A COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN SATURDAY. FAST PACED ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WILL PUSH THE FAIR WETHER MAKER EAST BY SUNDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW UP AND OVER THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES AT SITES IF OBSERVED ON
STATION.  CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS...AND
SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80  63  83  65 /  24  14  24  10
MERIDIAN      80  61  82  63 /  28  14  21  14
VICKSBURG     81  64  84  65 /  19  14  27  11
HATTIESBURG   84  64  84  64 /   8  10  16   8
NATCHEZ       81  64  83  65 /  10  12  25  10
GREENVILLE    78  63  81  66 /  35  28  44  14
GREENWOOD     79  62  81  65 /  36  26  41  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/26





000
FXUS64 KJAN 010848
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
348 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS MY NORTH.  THIS WILL BE AS A RESULT OF A SHORTWAVE...
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS.
THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE...RIDGING BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL CAUSE
THE BOUNDARY PLAGUING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TO LIFT NORTH AND
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.  DESPITE THE TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WITH A WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...IT`LL STILL BE ABLE TO SPARK SOME
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME ACTIVITY
LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING.

WHILE STORMS AREN`T EXPECTED TO BE AS VIGOROUS AS THOSE OBSERVED ON
TUESDAY...WITH SOME MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL RESIDING OVER THE
REGION...I CAN`T RULE OUT THAT AN INTENSE STORM COULD YIELD SOME
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THAT SAID...BASED OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT
LOOKS TO BE AN UPHILL BATTLE FOR SUCH CONVECTION AS A LOW-LEVEL CAP
LOOKS TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...IN
ADDITION TO THE BEFORE MENTIONED INCREASED RIDGING BUILDING THROUGH
THE REGION. DUE TO THE CURRENT LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH STORMS...I`LL
LEAVE THE HWO CLEAR FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

WARM HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.  ONCE AGAIN...THE
RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING IN THIS AIRMASS...COUPLED WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WILL CAUSE
SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. /19/

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MID LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW WITH SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD 60S DEWPOINTS
WILL HAVE ALREADY BEEN IN PLACE FOR SOME TIME WITH STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AT H85.

NICE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TAKE SHAPE
FROM NW AR TO N TX. CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE AS SUCH BY AFTERNOON TO WASH AWAY THE
CAP AND ALLOW A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

GFS/EC HAVE BACKED OFF THE CONVECTIVE INDICES A BIT THIS RUN...ONLY
SHOWING ABOUT 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE. THIS PROBABLY OWING TO THE
DEPTH OF LOW LAYER WARM AIR. NEVERTHELESS...H7-H5 LAPSE RATES STILL
LOOK GOOD AT 7-7.5 C/KM AND 25-30 VERTICAL TOTALS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH 50+ KNOTS OVER NORTH MS AND INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY. SPEAKING OF NORTH MS...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AND
TIME OPTIMIZED FOR BEST UTILIZATION OF THE AMBIENT CAPE...THAT AREA
SHOULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH RAPIDLY SE AND OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH
A COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN SATURDAY. FAST PACED ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WILL PUSH THE FAIR WETHER MAKER EAST BY SUNDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW UP AND OVER THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES AT SITES IF OBSERVED ON
STATION.  CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS...AND
SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80  63  83  65 /  24  14  24  10
MERIDIAN      80  61  82  63 /  28  14  21  14
VICKSBURG     81  64  84  65 /  19  14  27  11
HATTIESBURG   84  64  84  64 /   8  10  16   8
NATCHEZ       81  64  83  65 /  10  12  25  10
GREENVILLE    78  63  81  66 /  35  28  44  14
GREENWOOD     79  62  81  65 /  36  26  41  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/26




000
FXUS64 KJAN 010848
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
348 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS MY NORTH.  THIS WILL BE AS A RESULT OF A SHORTWAVE...
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS.
THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE...RIDGING BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL CAUSE
THE BOUNDARY PLAGUING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TO LIFT NORTH AND
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.  DESPITE THE TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WITH A WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...IT`LL STILL BE ABLE TO SPARK SOME
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME ACTIVITY
LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING.

WHILE STORMS AREN`T EXPECTED TO BE AS VIGOROUS AS THOSE OBSERVED ON
TUESDAY...WITH SOME MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL RESIDING OVER THE
REGION...I CAN`T RULE OUT THAT AN INTENSE STORM COULD YIELD SOME
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THAT SAID...BASED OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT
LOOKS TO BE AN UPHILL BATTLE FOR SUCH CONVECTION AS A LOW-LEVEL CAP
LOOKS TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...IN
ADDITION TO THE BEFORE MENTIONED INCREASED RIDGING BUILDING THROUGH
THE REGION. DUE TO THE CURRENT LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH STORMS...I`LL
LEAVE THE HWO CLEAR FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

WARM HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.  ONCE AGAIN...THE
RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING IN THIS AIRMASS...COUPLED WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WILL CAUSE
SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. /19/

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD MID LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW WITH SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD 60S DEWPOINTS
WILL HAVE ALREADY BEEN IN PLACE FOR SOME TIME WITH STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION AT H85.

NICE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TAKE SHAPE
FROM NW AR TO N TX. CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE AS SUCH BY AFTERNOON TO WASH AWAY THE
CAP AND ALLOW A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

GFS/EC HAVE BACKED OFF THE CONVECTIVE INDICES A BIT THIS RUN...ONLY
SHOWING ABOUT 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE. THIS PROBABLY OWING TO THE
DEPTH OF LOW LAYER WARM AIR. NEVERTHELESS...H7-H5 LAPSE RATES STILL
LOOK GOOD AT 7-7.5 C/KM AND 25-30 VERTICAL TOTALS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH 50+ KNOTS OVER NORTH MS AND INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY. SPEAKING OF NORTH MS...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AND
TIME OPTIMIZED FOR BEST UTILIZATION OF THE AMBIENT CAPE...THAT AREA
SHOULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH RAPIDLY SE AND OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH
A COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN SATURDAY. FAST PACED ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WILL PUSH THE FAIR WETHER MAKER EAST BY SUNDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO DEVELOP AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW UP AND OVER THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES AT SITES IF OBSERVED ON
STATION.  CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS...AND
SUBSIDE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80  63  83  65 /  24  14  24  10
MERIDIAN      80  61  82  63 /  28  14  21  14
VICKSBURG     81  64  84  65 /  19  14  27  11
HATTIESBURG   84  64  84  64 /   8  10  16   8
NATCHEZ       81  64  83  65 /  10  12  25  10
GREENVILLE    78  63  81  66 /  35  28  44  14
GREENWOOD     79  62  81  65 /  36  26  41  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/26





000
FXUS64 KJAN 010307
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1007 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LINGERING FROM THE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. NORTH OF THE AREA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MODELS SUGGEST THESE STORMS WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRONG STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT...BUT
NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
WORDING...FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
PARTLY CLOUDY AND MILD NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...A FEW TSRA COULD AFFECT THE CBM/GTR AREA LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS
MOST LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HKS/JAN TO MEI CORRIDOR. LOW CIGS
WILL MIX UPWARD DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. /EC/ &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       60  79  63  82 /  14  20  10  44
MERIDIAN      58  80  60  82 /  23  28  11  31
VICKSBURG     59  80  63  82 /   8  14  12  48
HATTIESBURG   59  82  63  84 /   7  12   9  23
NATCHEZ       59  80  64  82 /   3  13  12  40
GREENVILLE    59  78  62  80 /  23  32  20  55
GREENWOOD     59  79  62  80 /  23  37  23  53

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

07/EC





000
FXUS64 KJAN 010307
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1007 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LINGERING FROM THE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. NORTH OF THE AREA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MODELS SUGGEST THESE STORMS WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRONG STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT...BUT
NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
WORDING...FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
PARTLY CLOUDY AND MILD NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...A FEW TSRA COULD AFFECT THE CBM/GTR AREA LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS
MOST LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HKS/JAN TO MEI CORRIDOR. LOW CIGS
WILL MIX UPWARD DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. /EC/ &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       60  79  63  82 /  14  20  10  44
MERIDIAN      58  80  60  82 /  23  28  11  31
VICKSBURG     59  80  63  82 /   8  14  12  48
HATTIESBURG   59  82  63  84 /   7  12   9  23
NATCHEZ       59  80  64  82 /   3  13  12  40
GREENVILLE    59  78  62  80 /  23  32  20  55
GREENWOOD     59  79  62  80 /  23  37  23  53

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

07/EC




000
FXUS64 KJAN 312148
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
448 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR WITHIN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA. SOME OF THESE
STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL IN PORTIONS OF
ARKANSAS AND COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS ALONG WITH
60-70MPH WINDS. THIS IS NOT TOO SURPRISING GIVEN 8C/KM LAPSE RATES
OVER THE AREA AND 300-500 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH REGION.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS MOISTURE...HEATING...COMBINE WITH A
PASSING DISTURBANCE AND LINGERING BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE MORE ROBUST
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT SOME COULD LINGER A LITTLE LONGER.

SOME RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE TOMORROW AS A BOUNDARY LAYS
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE...RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DESPITE THE TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
CWA...WITH A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...IT
WILL STILL BE ABLE TO SPARK SOME CONVECTION OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY...MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN COUPLED WITH THE ASCENT FROM A PASSING WAVE. WHILE
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LAPSE RATES DONT LOOK AS GOOD
AND SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT AS FAVORED RIGHT NOW. HEIGHTS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING US TO BE CAPPED
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER...MORE IMPRESSIVE...SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKS ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO OUR
REGION. THIS WILL ERODE THE CAP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP. EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO APPROACH OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUFFICIENT CAPE...LAPSE RATES AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT HAZARD GRAPHICS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL
FRIDAY. SQUALL LINE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
AND EXIT THE REGION BY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER SFC HIGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
LOOK TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE DELTA AND THIS MAY BRING MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS TO
GLH/GWO/GTR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN STRATUS
AND FOG AFTER 07-09Z. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 8-12KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BUT WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT TO
BETWEEN 3-5KTS. /15/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       60  79  63  82 /  13  20  10  44
MERIDIAN      58  80  60  82 /  23  28  11  31
VICKSBURG     59  80  63  82 /   8  14  12  48
HATTIESBURG   59  82  63  84 /   7  12   9  23
NATCHEZ       59  80  64  82 /   3  13  12  40
GREENVILLE    59  78  62  80 /  30  32  20  55
GREENWOOD     59  79  62  80 /  41  37  23  53

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/15/26/19




000
FXUS64 KJAN 312148
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
448 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR WITHIN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA. SOME OF THESE
STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL IN PORTIONS OF
ARKANSAS AND COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS ALONG WITH
60-70MPH WINDS. THIS IS NOT TOO SURPRISING GIVEN 8C/KM LAPSE RATES
OVER THE AREA AND 300-500 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH REGION.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS MOISTURE...HEATING...COMBINE WITH A
PASSING DISTURBANCE AND LINGERING BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE MORE ROBUST
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT SOME COULD LINGER A LITTLE LONGER.

SOME RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE TOMORROW AS A BOUNDARY LAYS
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE...RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DESPITE THE TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
CWA...WITH A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...IT
WILL STILL BE ABLE TO SPARK SOME CONVECTION OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY...MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN COUPLED WITH THE ASCENT FROM A PASSING WAVE. WHILE
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LAPSE RATES DONT LOOK AS GOOD
AND SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT AS FAVORED RIGHT NOW. HEIGHTS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING US TO BE CAPPED
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER...MORE IMPRESSIVE...SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKS ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO OUR
REGION. THIS WILL ERODE THE CAP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP. EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO APPROACH OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUFFICIENT CAPE...LAPSE RATES AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT HAZARD GRAPHICS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL
FRIDAY. SQUALL LINE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
AND EXIT THE REGION BY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER SFC HIGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
LOOK TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE DELTA AND THIS MAY BRING MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS TO
GLH/GWO/GTR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO DISSIPATE BY 03Z...BUT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN STRATUS
AND FOG AFTER 07-09Z. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 8-12KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BUT WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT TO
BETWEEN 3-5KTS. /15/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       60  79  63  82 /  13  20  10  44
MERIDIAN      58  80  60  82 /  23  28  11  31
VICKSBURG     59  80  63  82 /   8  14  12  48
HATTIESBURG   59  82  63  84 /   7  12   9  23
NATCHEZ       59  80  64  82 /   3  13  12  40
GREENVILLE    59  78  62  80 /  30  32  20  55
GREENWOOD     59  79  62  80 /  41  37  23  53

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/15/26/19





000
FXUS64 KJAN 311553 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1053 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN PLENTY OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE. AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO HEAT...ALONG WITH A MOIST AIRMASS..A DIFFUSE
BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ARKLAMISS
REGION. SOME STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN ARKANSAS AND EXPECT
THAT ADDITIONAL STORM WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY HI-RES GUIDANCE AS WELL. STEEP LAPSE RATES
CHARACTERIZED BY 28-30 VERTICAL TOTALS AND GOOD CAPE IN THE -10 TO
-30C HAIL GROWTH REGION WILL YIELD SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH IN
ADDITION TO 60MPH WIND GUSTS. DUE TO THIS INCREASING CONFIDENCE...WE
HAVE RAISED PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO AN ELEVATED RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS AND INCREASED THE HAIL SIZE FOR ALL LOCATIONS
GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. OTHER
FORECAST PARAMETERS SEEM IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS
WERE NEEDED. /28/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A
DISTURBANCE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING MOISTURE...WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE
REGION.  CONVECTION WILL ALSO BEGIN TO IMPEDE UPON THE
REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...FROM LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS IN THIS AREA.  AS A RESULT OF INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT TODAY.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...AND SUBSIDE TONIGHT TO BETWEEN
3-5 KNOTS.  SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT SOME TAF
SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /19//15/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BOUNDARY MEANDERING
ABOUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN ADDITION TO
AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT...DAYTIME HEATING...AND A
MOISTENING AIRMASS...WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
OVER LOCALES NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.  WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT...ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES
SCARCE OVER MY SOUTH.

A FEW SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.  AGAIN...INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY...STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7.5-8 C/KM AND 28-30C VERTICAL
TOTALS...COULD YIELD A FEW ROBUST STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  AT THE MOMENT...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS
REMAINS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.  HERE...THERE REMAINS A
BETTER COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE PARAMETERS...IN ADDITION TO BETTER
FORCING...AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE WEAK RIDGING/DRIER AIR
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ACROSS MY SOUTH. MOST CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN
AFTER SUNSET...BUT SOME COULD LINGER ACROSS MY NORTH A LITTLE LATER
INTO THE NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL BE AS A RESULT OF A SHORTWAVE...
CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA...SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...RIDGING
BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.  DESPITE THE TROUGH WEAKENING AS
IT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WITH A WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...IT`LL STILL BE ABLE TO SPARK SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /19/

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BAJA WILL HAVE
OPENED UP AND PHASED INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW TO A POSITION JUST WEST
OF THE AREA. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED WITH WIDESPREAD MID 60S DEWPOINTS.

WITH THE ASCENT FROM THE PASSING WAVE...EXPECT TO HAVE A GOOD
SCATTERING OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
LOCALIZED SURFACE FOCUS. WHILE CAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE AREA AS FUEL FOR THE STORMS...SEVERE POSSIBILITIES
DO NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT GIVEN NEAR 6 C/KM H7-H5
LAPSE RATES AND LOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES.

VEERING WINDS IN THE COLUMN AFTER THE WAVE PASSES WILL ALLOW DRIER
AIR TO MOVE INTO THE COLUMN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND H85
ALLOWING A STRONG CAP TO DEVELOP. AT THE SURFACE...BELOW THE
INVERSION...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE LEVELS
WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA.

MORE IMPRESSIVE WAVE WILL PULL OUT OF THE ROCKIES THURSDAY EVENING
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PANHANDLE OF TX AND BEGINS
DRAGGING A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EAST OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION LOOKS TO
BE HELD AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS
LOW LEVEL CAP HOLDS STRONG. HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION
THROUGH THE CAPPING LAYER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK IT DOWN
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY NOON.

EXPECT A SQUALL LINE WILL BE DEVELOPING OR APPROACHING THE NW
PORTION OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. CAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG...H7-H5
LAPSE RATES FROM 7-8 C/KM AND 50+ KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
PROMOTE A SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEAR ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS TO EXPECTED SQUALL LINE POSITION SUGGESTS A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST.

SQUALL LINE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RACE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. FAST PACED FLOW PATTERN WILL NOT ALLOW THE COOL AIRMASS TO
REMAIN VERY LONG. BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN BACKING UP FROM THE SW WITH
SHOWERS INVADING FROM THE WEST ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  59  81  63 /  19  10  23  20
MERIDIAN      80  57  81  60 /  26  21  31  20
VICKSBURG     82  59  82  63 /  16   6  15  20
HATTIESBURG   83  59  84  64 /   5   5  14  20
NATCHEZ       80  59  81  64 /   5   4  14  20
GREENVILLE    78  58  79  62 /  61  26  36  20
GREENWOOD     77  58  79  62 /  61  37  40  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/15/19/26





000
FXUS64 KJAN 311553 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1053 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN PLENTY OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE. AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO HEAT...ALONG WITH A MOIST AIRMASS..A DIFFUSE
BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ARKLAMISS
REGION. SOME STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN ARKANSAS AND EXPECT
THAT ADDITIONAL STORM WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY HI-RES GUIDANCE AS WELL. STEEP LAPSE RATES
CHARACTERIZED BY 28-30 VERTICAL TOTALS AND GOOD CAPE IN THE -10 TO
-30C HAIL GROWTH REGION WILL YIELD SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH IN
ADDITION TO 60MPH WIND GUSTS. DUE TO THIS INCREASING CONFIDENCE...WE
HAVE RAISED PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO AN ELEVATED RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS AND INCREASED THE HAIL SIZE FOR ALL LOCATIONS
GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. OTHER
FORECAST PARAMETERS SEEM IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS
WERE NEEDED. /28/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A
DISTURBANCE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING MOISTURE...WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE
REGION.  CONVECTION WILL ALSO BEGIN TO IMPEDE UPON THE
REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...FROM LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS IN THIS AREA.  AS A RESULT OF INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT TODAY.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...AND SUBSIDE TONIGHT TO BETWEEN
3-5 KNOTS.  SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT SOME TAF
SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /19//15/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BOUNDARY MEANDERING
ABOUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN ADDITION TO
AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT...DAYTIME HEATING...AND A
MOISTENING AIRMASS...WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
OVER LOCALES NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.  WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT...ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES
SCARCE OVER MY SOUTH.

A FEW SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.  AGAIN...INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY...STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7.5-8 C/KM AND 28-30C VERTICAL
TOTALS...COULD YIELD A FEW ROBUST STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  AT THE MOMENT...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS
REMAINS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.  HERE...THERE REMAINS A
BETTER COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE PARAMETERS...IN ADDITION TO BETTER
FORCING...AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE WEAK RIDGING/DRIER AIR
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ACROSS MY SOUTH. MOST CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN
AFTER SUNSET...BUT SOME COULD LINGER ACROSS MY NORTH A LITTLE LATER
INTO THE NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL BE AS A RESULT OF A SHORTWAVE...
CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA...SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...RIDGING
BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.  DESPITE THE TROUGH WEAKENING AS
IT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WITH A WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...IT`LL STILL BE ABLE TO SPARK SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /19/

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BAJA WILL HAVE
OPENED UP AND PHASED INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW TO A POSITION JUST WEST
OF THE AREA. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED WITH WIDESPREAD MID 60S DEWPOINTS.

WITH THE ASCENT FROM THE PASSING WAVE...EXPECT TO HAVE A GOOD
SCATTERING OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
LOCALIZED SURFACE FOCUS. WHILE CAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE AREA AS FUEL FOR THE STORMS...SEVERE POSSIBILITIES
DO NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT GIVEN NEAR 6 C/KM H7-H5
LAPSE RATES AND LOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES.

VEERING WINDS IN THE COLUMN AFTER THE WAVE PASSES WILL ALLOW DRIER
AIR TO MOVE INTO THE COLUMN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND H85
ALLOWING A STRONG CAP TO DEVELOP. AT THE SURFACE...BELOW THE
INVERSION...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE LEVELS
WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA.

MORE IMPRESSIVE WAVE WILL PULL OUT OF THE ROCKIES THURSDAY EVENING
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PANHANDLE OF TX AND BEGINS
DRAGGING A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EAST OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION LOOKS TO
BE HELD AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS
LOW LEVEL CAP HOLDS STRONG. HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION
THROUGH THE CAPPING LAYER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK IT DOWN
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY NOON.

EXPECT A SQUALL LINE WILL BE DEVELOPING OR APPROACHING THE NW
PORTION OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. CAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG...H7-H5
LAPSE RATES FROM 7-8 C/KM AND 50+ KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
PROMOTE A SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEAR ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS TO EXPECTED SQUALL LINE POSITION SUGGESTS A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST.

SQUALL LINE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RACE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. FAST PACED FLOW PATTERN WILL NOT ALLOW THE COOL AIRMASS TO
REMAIN VERY LONG. BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN BACKING UP FROM THE SW WITH
SHOWERS INVADING FROM THE WEST ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  59  81  63 /  19  10  23  20
MERIDIAN      80  57  81  60 /  26  21  31  20
VICKSBURG     82  59  82  63 /  16   6  15  20
HATTIESBURG   83  59  84  64 /   5   5  14  20
NATCHEZ       80  59  81  64 /   5   4  14  20
GREENVILLE    78  58  79  62 /  61  26  36  20
GREENWOOD     77  58  79  62 /  61  37  40  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/15/19/26




000
FXUS64 KJAN 310913
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
413 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BOUNDARY MEANDERING
ABOUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN ADDITION TO
AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT...DAYTIME HEATING...AND A
MOISTENING AIRMASS...WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
OVER LOCALES NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.  WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT...ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES
SCARCE OVER MY SOUTH.

A FEW SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.  AGAIN...INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY...STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7.5-8 C/KM AND 28-30C VERTICAL
TOTALS...COULD YIELD A FEW ROBUST STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  AT THE MOMENT...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS
REMAINS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.  HERE...THERE REMAINS A
BETTER COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE PARAMETERS...IN ADDITION TO BETTER
FORCING...AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE WEAK RIDGING/DRIER AIR
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ACROSS MY SOUTH. MOST CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN
AFTER SUNSET...BUT SOME COULD LINGER ACROSS MY NORTH A LITTLE LATER
INTO THE NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL BE AS A RESULT OF A SHORTWAVE...
CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA...SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...RIDGING
BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.  DESPITE THE TROUGH WEAKENING AS
IT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WITH A WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...IT`LL STILL BE ABLE TO SPARK SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /19/

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BAJA WILL HAVE
OPENED UP AND PHASED INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW TO A POSITION JUST WEST
OF THE AREA. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED WITH WIDESPREAD MID 60S DEWPOINTS.

WITH THE ASCENT FROM THE PASSING WAVE...EXPECT TO HAVE A GOOD
SCATTERING OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
LOCALIZED SURFACE FOCUS. WHILE CAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE AREA AS FUEL FOR THE STORMS...SEVERE POSSIBILITIES
DO NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT GIVEN NEAR 6 C/KM H7-H5
LAPSE RATES AND LOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES.

VEERING WINDS IN THE COLUMN AFTER THE WAVE PASSES WILL ALLOW DRIER
AIR TO MOVE INTO THE COLUMN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND H85
ALLOWING A STRONG CAP TO DEVELOP. AT THE SURFACE...BELOW THE
INVERSION...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE LEVELS
WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA.

MORE IMPRESSIVE WAVE WILL PULL OUT OF THE ROCKIES THURSDAY EVENING
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PANHANDLE OF TX AND BEGINS
DRAGGING A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EAST OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION LOOKS TO
BE HELD AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS
LOW LEVEL CAP HOLDS STRONG. HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION
THROUGH THE CAPPING LAYER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK IT DOWN
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY NOON.

EXPECT A SQUALL LINE WILL BE DEVELOPING OR APPROACHING THE NW
PORTION OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. CAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG...H7-H5
LAPSE RATES FROM 7-8 C/KM AND 50+ KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
PROMOTE A SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEAR OTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS TO EXPECTED SQUALL LINE POSITION SUGGESTS A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST.

SQUALL LINE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RACE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. FAST PACED FLOW PATTERN WILL NOT ALLOW THE COOL AIRMASS TO
REMAIN VERY LONG. BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN BACKING UP FROM THE SW WITH
SHOWERS INVADING FROM THE WEST ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.  A DISTURBANCE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY...IN ADDITION TO INCREASING MOISTURE...WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE REGION.  CONVECTION WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
IMPEDE UPON THE REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...FROM LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS IN THIS AREA.  AS A RESULT OF
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CONVECTION...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT TODAY.  WINDS TODAY
WILL BE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...AND SUBSIDE TONIGHT TO
BETWEEN 3-5 KNOTS.  SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT
SOME TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  59  81  63 /  19  10  23  20
MERIDIAN      80  57  81  60 /  26  21  31  20
VICKSBURG     82  59  82  63 /  16   6  15  20
HATTIESBURG   84  59  84  64 /   5   5  14  20
NATCHEZ       80  59  81  64 /   5   4  14  20
GREENVILLE    78  58  79  62 /  61  26  36  20
GREENWOOD     77  58  79  62 /  61  37  40  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/26





000
FXUS64 KJAN 310913
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
413 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A BOUNDARY MEANDERING
ABOUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN ADDITION TO
AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT...DAYTIME HEATING...AND A
MOISTENING AIRMASS...WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
OVER LOCALES NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.  WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT...ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT...LOOKS TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES
SCARCE OVER MY SOUTH.

A FEW SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.  AGAIN...INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY...STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7.5-8 C/KM AND 28-30C VERTICAL
TOTALS...COULD YIELD A FEW ROBUST STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  AT THE MOMENT...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS
REMAINS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.  HERE...THERE REMAINS A
BETTER COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE PARAMETERS...IN ADDITION TO BETTER
FORCING...AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE WEAK RIDGING/DRIER AIR
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ACROSS MY SOUTH. MOST CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN
AFTER SUNSET...BUT SOME COULD LINGER ACROSS MY NORTH A LITTLE LATER
INTO THE NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL BE AS A RESULT OF A SHORTWAVE...
CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA...SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...RIDGING
BUILDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO LIFT
NORTH AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.  DESPITE THE TROUGH WEAKENING AS
IT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...WITH A WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...IT`LL STILL BE ABLE TO SPARK SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /19/

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BAJA WILL HAVE
OPENED UP AND PHASED INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW TO A POSITION JUST WEST
OF THE AREA. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED WITH WIDESPREAD MID 60S DEWPOINTS.

WITH THE ASCENT FROM THE PASSING WAVE...EXPECT TO HAVE A GOOD
SCATTERING OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
LOCALIZED SURFACE FOCUS. WHILE CAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE AREA AS FUEL FOR THE STORMS...SEVERE POSSIBILITIES
DO NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT GIVEN NEAR 6 C/KM H7-H5
LAPSE RATES AND LOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES.

VEERING WINDS IN THE COLUMN AFTER THE WAVE PASSES WILL ALLOW DRIER
AIR TO MOVE INTO THE COLUMN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND H85
ALLOWING A STRONG CAP TO DEVELOP. AT THE SURFACE...BELOW THE
INVERSION...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE LEVELS
WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA.

MORE IMPRESSIVE WAVE WILL PULL OUT OF THE ROCKIES THURSDAY EVENING
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PANHANDLE OF TX AND BEGINS
DRAGGING A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EAST OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION LOOKS TO
BE HELD AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AS
LOW LEVEL CAP HOLDS STRONG. HOWEVER...INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION
THROUGH THE CAPPING LAYER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK IT DOWN
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY NOON.

EXPECT A SQUALL LINE WILL BE DEVELOPING OR APPROACHING THE NW
PORTION OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. CAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG...H7-H5
LAPSE RATES FROM 7-8 C/KM AND 50+ KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
PROMOTE A SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEAR OTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS TO EXPECTED SQUALL LINE POSITION SUGGESTS A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST.

SQUALL LINE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RACE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. FAST PACED FLOW PATTERN WILL NOT ALLOW THE COOL AIRMASS TO
REMAIN VERY LONG. BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN BACKING UP FROM THE SW WITH
SHOWERS INVADING FROM THE WEST ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.  A DISTURBANCE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY...IN ADDITION TO INCREASING MOISTURE...WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE REGION.  CONVECTION WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
IMPEDE UPON THE REGION...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...FROM LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS IN THIS AREA.  AS A RESULT OF
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CONVECTION...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT TODAY.  WINDS TODAY
WILL BE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...AND SUBSIDE TONIGHT TO
BETWEEN 3-5 KNOTS.  SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT
SOME TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  59  81  63 /  19  10  23  20
MERIDIAN      80  57  81  60 /  26  21  31  20
VICKSBURG     82  59  82  63 /  16   6  15  20
HATTIESBURG   84  59  84  64 /   5   5  14  20
NATCHEZ       80  59  81  64 /   5   4  14  20
GREENVILLE    78  58  79  62 /  61  26  36  20
GREENWOOD     77  58  79  62 /  61  37  40  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/26




000
FXUS64 KJAN 310143
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
843 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. SEEMS TO A
LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED...SO TWEAKED HOURLY VALUES AND LOWS FOR
TONIGHT. RAISED VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO IN A FEW LOCATIONS. CLOUDS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAY HANG AROUND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM. A LIGHT BREEZE ELSEWHERE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO QUICKLY ALSO. WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
THIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...LEFT THE FOG WORDING. A LIGHT BREEZE MAY LIMIT
FOG DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. A
COMBINATION OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING IN ALL AREAS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT PIB/HBG
WHERE DENSE EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE PARTICULARLY IN THE PIB/HBG AREA...BUT MVFR
CATEGORY CIGS MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE GLH-GWO-
GTR CORRIDOR WHERE TSRA CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. /BB/EC/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       60  80  59  82 /   6  12  11  22
MERIDIAN      58  79  56  81 /   6  18  25  32
VICKSBURG     59  81  58  80 /   5  10   9  20
HATTIESBURG   61  82  58  82 /   6   6   7  15
NATCHEZ       62  80  60  81 /   3   8   7  15
GREENVILLE    59  78  58  78 /   7  44  33  41
GREENWOOD     59  78  58  79 /   8  52  34  44

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

07/JAN/EC




000
FXUS64 KJAN 310143
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
843 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. SEEMS TO A
LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED...SO TWEAKED HOURLY VALUES AND LOWS FOR
TONIGHT. RAISED VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO IN A FEW LOCATIONS. CLOUDS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAY HANG AROUND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM. A LIGHT BREEZE ELSEWHERE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO QUICKLY ALSO. WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
THIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...LEFT THE FOG WORDING. A LIGHT BREEZE MAY LIMIT
FOG DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. A
COMBINATION OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING IN ALL AREAS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT PIB/HBG
WHERE DENSE EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE PARTICULARLY IN THE PIB/HBG AREA...BUT MVFR
CATEGORY CIGS MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE GLH-GWO-
GTR CORRIDOR WHERE TSRA CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. /BB/EC/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       60  80  59  82 /   6  12  11  22
MERIDIAN      58  79  56  81 /   6  18  25  32
VICKSBURG     59  81  58  80 /   5  10   9  20
HATTIESBURG   61  82  58  82 /   6   6   7  15
NATCHEZ       62  80  60  81 /   3   8   7  15
GREENVILLE    59  78  58  78 /   7  44  33  41
GREENWOOD     59  78  58  79 /   8  52  34  44

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

07/JAN/EC





000
FXUS64 KJAN 302127
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
420 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE ANALYSIS
THIS AFTERNOON HAD A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR AND A 1024MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN TENNESSEE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY
SHOWED THE AFFECTS OF THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER OBSERVED. THE WARM MOIST AIR MASS
REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WAS SUPPORTING A FEW
SHOWERS NOTED ON LOCAL RADARS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND OUR MOIST AIRMASS WILL RADIATE AND
LEND TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. MODELS SUGGEST SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ALSO...BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING THE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLEVELAND MISSISSIPPI AND STRETCH
EAST SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MACON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION TUESDAY. SOME MODELS SUGGEST EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY BUT
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITIY MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE HEAT OF THE DAY. A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY
AND DAYTIME HEATING TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM CROSSETT ARKANSAS TO MACON MISSISSIPPI. QUARTER
SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH TRAINING OF STORMS MAY
PRODUCE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME LENDING
TO MINOR RUNOFF ISSUES. DEPSITE THE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY.
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL APPROACH 80F AGAIN. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. THE STORMS TUESDAY WILL SEE A
MARKED DECREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND AS
THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA. A CLOSED LOW NEARING THE BAJA
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AN OPEN TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS APROACHING
SHORTWAVE...RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO HELP
SHIFT THE OLD STALLED BOUNDARY NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER OUR CWA BUT WORK TO SET OFF A
FEW STORMS OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AFTEROON AND EVENING. /22/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
AND TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S WILL PROMOTE DECENT AIRMASS
CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BEST
COVERAGE OCCURRING WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN SETUP.

BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS MORE
IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL WAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MORE IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE BY THIS TIME...BUT
INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE BIG QUESTION
MARK WITH ITS LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME ARRIVAL FOR ANY SEVERE
POSSIBILITIES. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS ATLEAST SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

A GOOD DOSE OF POST FRONTAL PRECIP LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONTAL SURFACE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING. A GOOD COOL DOWN WILL BE ON TAP FOR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUD DECK IN THE 3 TO
6 KFT RANGE WILL LIKELY BE FOUND AT MANY SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE
PRIMARILY VFR WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN.  WINDS NORTH OF I-20
ARE CURRENTLY NORTHERLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS WITH WINDS A BIT ERRATIC
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE THIS FRONT IS STALLED. WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT IN ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING IN ALL AREAS AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT
PIB/HBG WHERE DENSE EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       57  80  59  82 /   6  12  11  22
MERIDIAN      55  79  56  81 /   6  18  25  32
VICKSBURG     56  81  58  80 /   5  10   9  20
HATTIESBURG   57  82  58  82 /   6   6   7  15
NATCHEZ       58  80  60  81 /   3   8   7  15
GREENVILLE    58  78  58  78 /   7  44  33  41
GREENWOOD     58  78  58  79 /   8  52  34  44

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26/BB




000
FXUS64 KJAN 301449
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
945 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
SPAWNED EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS...NOW EAST OF OUR CWA AND MOST
OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH IT AS WELL. LOCAL RADARS SHOWED A
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR JUST SOUTH OF
A WEAK AND STALLING COLD FRONT. HAVE REMOVED THUNDER WORDING UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. NO ADDITIONAL STRONG
OR SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED CENTRAL AND SOUTH
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS IN THE 3 TO 6 KFT RANGE WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH A GOOD BIT OF THE MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR AS A RESULT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BETWEEN 5-
10 KNOTS.  THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STALL GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 20 AND HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDORS LATER TODAY WHERE
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A STRAY STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH...WITH
PATCHY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
/BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A TROUGH SWINGING EAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES...HAS PUSHED A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.  AS A
RESULT...ELEVATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WAS SHIFTING
EAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.  AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUIT WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
REGION.

WITH THE FRONT`S MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PULLING OUT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AS
DEW POINTS GENERALLY HOVER IN THE UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WEDGING INTO MY SOUTH...STORMS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TODAY.  HIGH-RES MODELS ALSO
STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE.  STILL...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
PRESENT (MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5 C/KM AND 27-28C VERTICAL
TOTALS)...AN INTENSE CORE COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION
OF SMALL HAIL AND SOME GUSTY WINDS.  CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL ALONG TO JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR TONIGHT...AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...BEFORE FINALLY WASHING OUT...TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT...
WILL AGAIN KEEP RAIN CHANCES LESS OVER MY SOUTH COMPARED TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CLIMB TOWARD THE
MID 60S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...IN
ADDITION TO AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CONTINUED STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7.5-8 C/KM AND 28-30C VERTICAL
TOTALS...COULD YIELD A FEW ROBUST STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  AT THE MOMENT...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS
APPEARS TO BE OVER AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.  HERE
THERE LOOKS TO A BETTER COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE PARAMETERS...IN
ADDITION TO BETTER FORCING...AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE WEAK
RIDGING ACROSS MY SOUTH.  THUS...I`LL MAINTAIN THE "LIMITED" THREAT
FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO.  ONCE AGAIN...MOST CONVECTION
WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET...BUT SOME COULD LINGER ACROSS MY NORTH
A LITTLE LATER INTO THE NIGHT. /19/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WHILE LEFT OVER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE DELTA REGION TO SE MS. WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING WAVE WILL AID IN BOUNDARY
LIFTING OUT TO THE NE DURING THE DAY. WITH LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY...EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD
AND ROBUST IN AREAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE MID 60 DEWPOINTS WILL
POOL ALLOWING CAPES TO PUSH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORTUNATELY LOW AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LOW...BUT STILL A FEW LOCALIZED STORMS MAY
BECOME INTENSE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S
WILL PROMOTE DECENT AIRMASS CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE CAN SETUP.

BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS MORE
IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL WAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MORE IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE BY THIS TIME...BUT
INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE BIG QUESTION
MARK WITH ITS LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME ARRIVAL FOR ANY SEVERE
POSSIBILITIES.

A GOOD DOSE OF POST FRONTAL PRECIP LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONTAL SURFACE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING. A GOOD COOL DOWN WILL BE ON TAP FOR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  57  79  59 /  32  10  20  23
MERIDIAN      77  55  79  58 /  46  10  26  30
VICKSBURG     77  58  79  59 /  26  10  20  18
HATTIESBURG   80  58  83  61 /  27  10  12   8
NATCHEZ       76  59  80  60 /  18  10  11   7
GREENVILLE    72  57  76  59 /  14  10  37  35
GREENWOOD     73  56  75  58 /  14  10  41  37

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/BYB/19/26




000
FXUS64 KJAN 301449
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
945 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
SPAWNED EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS...NOW EAST OF OUR CWA AND MOST
OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH IT AS WELL. LOCAL RADARS SHOWED A
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR JUST SOUTH OF
A WEAK AND STALLING COLD FRONT. HAVE REMOVED THUNDER WORDING UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. NO ADDITIONAL STRONG
OR SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED CENTRAL AND SOUTH
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS IN THE 3 TO 6 KFT RANGE WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH A GOOD BIT OF THE MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR AS A RESULT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BETWEEN 5-
10 KNOTS.  THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STALL GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 20 AND HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDORS LATER TODAY WHERE
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A STRAY STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH...WITH
PATCHY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
/BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A TROUGH SWINGING EAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES...HAS PUSHED A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.  AS A
RESULT...ELEVATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WAS SHIFTING
EAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.  AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUIT WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
REGION.

WITH THE FRONT`S MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PULLING OUT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AS
DEW POINTS GENERALLY HOVER IN THE UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WEDGING INTO MY SOUTH...STORMS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TODAY.  HIGH-RES MODELS ALSO
STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE.  STILL...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
PRESENT (MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5 C/KM AND 27-28C VERTICAL
TOTALS)...AN INTENSE CORE COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION
OF SMALL HAIL AND SOME GUSTY WINDS.  CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL ALONG TO JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR TONIGHT...AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...BEFORE FINALLY WASHING OUT...TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT...
WILL AGAIN KEEP RAIN CHANCES LESS OVER MY SOUTH COMPARED TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CLIMB TOWARD THE
MID 60S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...IN
ADDITION TO AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CONTINUED STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7.5-8 C/KM AND 28-30C VERTICAL
TOTALS...COULD YIELD A FEW ROBUST STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  AT THE MOMENT...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS
APPEARS TO BE OVER AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.  HERE
THERE LOOKS TO A BETTER COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE PARAMETERS...IN
ADDITION TO BETTER FORCING...AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE WEAK
RIDGING ACROSS MY SOUTH.  THUS...I`LL MAINTAIN THE "LIMITED" THREAT
FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO.  ONCE AGAIN...MOST CONVECTION
WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET...BUT SOME COULD LINGER ACROSS MY NORTH
A LITTLE LATER INTO THE NIGHT. /19/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WHILE LEFT OVER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE DELTA REGION TO SE MS. WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING WAVE WILL AID IN BOUNDARY
LIFTING OUT TO THE NE DURING THE DAY. WITH LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY...EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD
AND ROBUST IN AREAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE MID 60 DEWPOINTS WILL
POOL ALLOWING CAPES TO PUSH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORTUNATELY LOW AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LOW...BUT STILL A FEW LOCALIZED STORMS MAY
BECOME INTENSE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S
WILL PROMOTE DECENT AIRMASS CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE CAN SETUP.

BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS MORE
IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL WAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MORE IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE BY THIS TIME...BUT
INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE BIG QUESTION
MARK WITH ITS LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME ARRIVAL FOR ANY SEVERE
POSSIBILITIES.

A GOOD DOSE OF POST FRONTAL PRECIP LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONTAL SURFACE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING. A GOOD COOL DOWN WILL BE ON TAP FOR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  57  79  59 /  32  10  20  23
MERIDIAN      77  55  79  58 /  46  10  26  30
VICKSBURG     77  58  79  59 /  26  10  20  18
HATTIESBURG   80  58  83  61 /  27  10  12   8
NATCHEZ       76  59  80  60 /  18  10  11   7
GREENVILLE    72  57  76  59 /  14  10  37  35
GREENWOOD     73  56  75  58 /  14  10  41  37

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/BYB/19/26





000
FXUS64 KJAN 300916
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
416 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A TROUGH SWINGING EAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES...HAS PUSHED A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.  AS A
RESULT...ELEVATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WAS SHIFTING
EAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.  AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUIT WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
REGION.

WITH THE FRONT`S MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PULLING OUT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AS
DEW POINTS GENERALLY HOVER IN THE UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WEDGING INTO MY SOUTH...STORMS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TODAY.  HIGH-RES MODELS ALSO
STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE.  STILL...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
PRESENT (MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5 C/KM AND 27-28C VERTICAL
TOTALS)...AN INTENSE CORE COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION
OF SMALL HAIL AND SOME GUSTY WINDS.  CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL ALONG TO JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR TONIGHT...AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...BEFORE FINALLY WASHING OUT...TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT...
WILL AGAIN KEEP RAIN CHANCES LESS OVER MY SOUTH COMPARED TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CLIMB TOWARD THE
MID 60S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...IN
ADDITION TO AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CONTINUED STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7.5-8 C/KM AND 28-30C VERTICAL
TOTALS...COULD YIELD A FEW ROBUST STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  AT THE MOMENT...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS
APPEARS TO BE OVER AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.  HERE
THERE LOOKS TO A BETTER COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE PARAMETERS...IN
ADDITION TO BETTER FORCING...AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE WEAK
RIDGING ACROSS MY SOUTH.  THUS...I`LL MAINTAIN THE "LIMITED" THREAT
FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO.  ONCE AGAIN...MOST CONVECTION
WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET...BUT SOME COULD LINGER ACROSS MY NORTH
A LITTLE LATER INTO THE NIGHT. /19/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WHILE LEFT OVER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE DELTA REGION TO SE MS. WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING WAVE WILL AID IN BOUNDARY
LIFTING OUT TO THE NE DURING THE DAY. WITH LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY...EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD
AND ROBUST IN AREAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE MID 60 DEWPOINTS WILL
POOL ALLOWING CAPES TO PUSH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORTUNATELY LOW AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LOW...BUT STILL A FEW LOCALIZED STORMS MAY
BECOME INTENSE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S
WILL PROMOTE DECENT AIRMASS CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE CAN SETUP.

BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS MORE
IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL WAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MORE IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE BY THIS TIME...BUT
INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE BIG QUESTION
MARK WITH ITS LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME ARRIVAL FOR ANY SEVERE
POSSIBILITIES.

A GOOD DOSE OF POST FRONTAL PRECIP LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONTAL SURFACE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING. A GOOD COOL DOWN WILL BE ON TAP FOR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR TO IFR FLIGHT STATUSES CURRENTLY EXIST AT
TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY DUE TO LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG LIMITING VISIBILITY.  PATCHY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH A GOOD BIT OF THE MORNING AS A RESULT OF BOTH CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION.  TAF SITES WHERE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH THAT SITE`S
AERODROME COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BETWEEN 5-10
KNOTS.  THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STALL GENERALLY BETWEEN
THE INTERSTATE 20 AND HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDORS LATER TODAY.  WINDS SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH...WITH PATCHY FOG
AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  57  79  59 /  32  10  20  23
MERIDIAN      77  55  79  58 /  46  10  26  30
VICKSBURG     77  58  79  59 /  26  10  20  18
HATTIESBURG   80  58  83  61 /  27  10  12   8
NATCHEZ       76  59  80  60 /  18  10  11   7
GREENVILLE    72  57  76  59 /  18  10  37  35
GREENWOOD     73  56  75  58 /  21  10  41  37

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/26





000
FXUS64 KJAN 300916
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
416 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A TROUGH SWINGING EAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES...HAS PUSHED A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.  AS A
RESULT...ELEVATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WAS SHIFTING
EAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.  AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUIT WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
REGION.

WITH THE FRONT`S MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PULLING OUT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AS
DEW POINTS GENERALLY HOVER IN THE UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WEDGING INTO MY SOUTH...STORMS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TODAY.  HIGH-RES MODELS ALSO
STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE.  STILL...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
PRESENT (MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5 C/KM AND 27-28C VERTICAL
TOTALS)...AN INTENSE CORE COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION
OF SMALL HAIL AND SOME GUSTY WINDS.  CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL ALONG TO JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR TONIGHT...AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...BEFORE FINALLY WASHING OUT...TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT...
WILL AGAIN KEEP RAIN CHANCES LESS OVER MY SOUTH COMPARED TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CLIMB TOWARD THE
MID 60S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...IN
ADDITION TO AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CONTINUED STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7.5-8 C/KM AND 28-30C VERTICAL
TOTALS...COULD YIELD A FEW ROBUST STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  AT THE MOMENT...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS
APPEARS TO BE OVER AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.  HERE
THERE LOOKS TO A BETTER COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE PARAMETERS...IN
ADDITION TO BETTER FORCING...AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE WEAK
RIDGING ACROSS MY SOUTH.  THUS...I`LL MAINTAIN THE "LIMITED" THREAT
FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO.  ONCE AGAIN...MOST CONVECTION
WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET...BUT SOME COULD LINGER ACROSS MY NORTH
A LITTLE LATER INTO THE NIGHT. /19/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WHILE LEFT OVER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE DELTA REGION TO SE MS. WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING WAVE WILL AID IN BOUNDARY
LIFTING OUT TO THE NE DURING THE DAY. WITH LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY...EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD
AND ROBUST IN AREAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE MID 60 DEWPOINTS WILL
POOL ALLOWING CAPES TO PUSH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORTUNATELY LOW AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LOW...BUT STILL A FEW LOCALIZED STORMS MAY
BECOME INTENSE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S
WILL PROMOTE DECENT AIRMASS CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE CAN SETUP.

BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS MORE
IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL WAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MORE IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE BY THIS TIME...BUT
INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE BIG QUESTION
MARK WITH ITS LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME ARRIVAL FOR ANY SEVERE
POSSIBILITIES.

A GOOD DOSE OF POST FRONTAL PRECIP LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONTAL SURFACE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING. A GOOD COOL DOWN WILL BE ON TAP FOR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR TO IFR FLIGHT STATUSES CURRENTLY EXIST AT
TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY DUE TO LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG LIMITING VISIBILITY.  PATCHY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH A GOOD BIT OF THE MORNING AS A RESULT OF BOTH CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION.  TAF SITES WHERE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH THAT SITE`S
AERODROME COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BETWEEN 5-10
KNOTS.  THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STALL GENERALLY BETWEEN
THE INTERSTATE 20 AND HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDORS LATER TODAY.  WINDS SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH...WITH PATCHY FOG
AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  57  79  59 /  32  10  20  23
MERIDIAN      77  55  79  58 /  46  10  26  30
VICKSBURG     77  58  79  59 /  26  10  20  18
HATTIESBURG   80  58  83  61 /  27  10  12   8
NATCHEZ       76  59  80  60 /  18  10  11   7
GREENVILLE    72  57  76  59 /  18  10  37  35
GREENWOOD     73  56  75  58 /  21  10  41  37

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/26




000
FXUS64 KJAN 300916
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
416 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A TROUGH SWINGING EAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES...HAS PUSHED A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.  AS A
RESULT...ELEVATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WAS SHIFTING
EAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.  AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUIT WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
REGION.

WITH THE FRONT`S MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PULLING OUT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AS
DEW POINTS GENERALLY HOVER IN THE UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WEDGING INTO MY SOUTH...STORMS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TODAY.  HIGH-RES MODELS ALSO
STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE.  STILL...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
PRESENT (MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5 C/KM AND 27-28C VERTICAL
TOTALS)...AN INTENSE CORE COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION
OF SMALL HAIL AND SOME GUSTY WINDS.  CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL ALONG TO JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR TONIGHT...AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...BEFORE FINALLY WASHING OUT...TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT...
WILL AGAIN KEEP RAIN CHANCES LESS OVER MY SOUTH COMPARED TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CLIMB TOWARD THE
MID 60S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...IN
ADDITION TO AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CONTINUED STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7.5-8 C/KM AND 28-30C VERTICAL
TOTALS...COULD YIELD A FEW ROBUST STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  AT THE MOMENT...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS
APPEARS TO BE OVER AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.  HERE
THERE LOOKS TO A BETTER COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE PARAMETERS...IN
ADDITION TO BETTER FORCING...AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE WEAK
RIDGING ACROSS MY SOUTH.  THUS...I`LL MAINTAIN THE "LIMITED" THREAT
FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO.  ONCE AGAIN...MOST CONVECTION
WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET...BUT SOME COULD LINGER ACROSS MY NORTH
A LITTLE LATER INTO THE NIGHT. /19/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WHILE LEFT OVER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE DELTA REGION TO SE MS. WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING WAVE WILL AID IN BOUNDARY
LIFTING OUT TO THE NE DURING THE DAY. WITH LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY...EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD
AND ROBUST IN AREAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE MID 60 DEWPOINTS WILL
POOL ALLOWING CAPES TO PUSH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORTUNATELY LOW AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LOW...BUT STILL A FEW LOCALIZED STORMS MAY
BECOME INTENSE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S
WILL PROMOTE DECENT AIRMASS CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE CAN SETUP.

BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS MORE
IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL WAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MORE IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE BY THIS TIME...BUT
INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE BIG QUESTION
MARK WITH ITS LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME ARRIVAL FOR ANY SEVERE
POSSIBILITIES.

A GOOD DOSE OF POST FRONTAL PRECIP LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONTAL SURFACE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING. A GOOD COOL DOWN WILL BE ON TAP FOR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR TO IFR FLIGHT STATUSES CURRENTLY EXIST AT
TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY DUE TO LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG LIMITING VISIBILITY.  PATCHY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH A GOOD BIT OF THE MORNING AS A RESULT OF BOTH CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION.  TAF SITES WHERE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH THAT SITE`S
AERODROME COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BETWEEN 5-10
KNOTS.  THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STALL GENERALLY BETWEEN
THE INTERSTATE 20 AND HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDORS LATER TODAY.  WINDS SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH...WITH PATCHY FOG
AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  57  79  59 /  32  10  20  23
MERIDIAN      77  55  79  58 /  46  10  26  30
VICKSBURG     77  58  79  59 /  26  10  20  18
HATTIESBURG   80  58  83  61 /  27  10  12   8
NATCHEZ       76  59  80  60 /  18  10  11   7
GREENVILLE    72  57  76  59 /  18  10  37  35
GREENWOOD     73  56  75  58 /  21  10  41  37

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/26




000
FXUS64 KJAN 300916
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
416 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A TROUGH SWINGING EAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES...HAS PUSHED A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.  AS A
RESULT...ELEVATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WAS SHIFTING
EAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.  AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUIT WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
REGION.

WITH THE FRONT`S MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PULLING OUT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AS
DEW POINTS GENERALLY HOVER IN THE UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WEDGING INTO MY SOUTH...STORMS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TODAY.  HIGH-RES MODELS ALSO
STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE.  STILL...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
PRESENT (MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-7.5 C/KM AND 27-28C VERTICAL
TOTALS)...AN INTENSE CORE COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION
OF SMALL HAIL AND SOME GUSTY WINDS.  CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL ALONG TO JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR TONIGHT...AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...BEFORE FINALLY WASHING OUT...TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLY
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT...
WILL AGAIN KEEP RAIN CHANCES LESS OVER MY SOUTH COMPARED TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AS DEW POINTS CLIMB TOWARD THE
MID 60S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...IN
ADDITION TO AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CONTINUED STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7.5-8 C/KM AND 28-30C VERTICAL
TOTALS...COULD YIELD A FEW ROBUST STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  AT THE MOMENT...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS
APPEARS TO BE OVER AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.  HERE
THERE LOOKS TO A BETTER COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE PARAMETERS...IN
ADDITION TO BETTER FORCING...AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE WEAK
RIDGING ACROSS MY SOUTH.  THUS...I`LL MAINTAIN THE "LIMITED" THREAT
FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO.  ONCE AGAIN...MOST CONVECTION
WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET...BUT SOME COULD LINGER ACROSS MY NORTH
A LITTLE LATER INTO THE NIGHT. /19/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WHILE LEFT OVER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE DELTA REGION TO SE MS. WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING WAVE WILL AID IN BOUNDARY
LIFTING OUT TO THE NE DURING THE DAY. WITH LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY...EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD
AND ROBUST IN AREAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE MID 60 DEWPOINTS WILL
POOL ALLOWING CAPES TO PUSH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORTUNATELY LOW AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LOW...BUT STILL A FEW LOCALIZED STORMS MAY
BECOME INTENSE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S
WILL PROMOTE DECENT AIRMASS CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE CAN SETUP.

BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS MORE
IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL WAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MORE IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE BY THIS TIME...BUT
INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE BIG QUESTION
MARK WITH ITS LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME ARRIVAL FOR ANY SEVERE
POSSIBILITIES.

A GOOD DOSE OF POST FRONTAL PRECIP LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONTAL SURFACE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING. A GOOD COOL DOWN WILL BE ON TAP FOR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR TO IFR FLIGHT STATUSES CURRENTLY EXIST AT
TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY DUE TO LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG LIMITING VISIBILITY.  PATCHY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH A GOOD BIT OF THE MORNING AS A RESULT OF BOTH CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION.  TAF SITES WHERE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH THAT SITE`S
AERODROME COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BETWEEN 5-10
KNOTS.  THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STALL GENERALLY BETWEEN
THE INTERSTATE 20 AND HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDORS LATER TODAY.  WINDS SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH...WITH PATCHY FOG
AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  57  79  59 /  32  10  20  23
MERIDIAN      77  55  79  58 /  46  10  26  30
VICKSBURG     77  58  79  59 /  26  10  20  18
HATTIESBURG   80  58  83  61 /  27  10  12   8
NATCHEZ       76  59  80  60 /  18  10  11   7
GREENVILLE    72  57  76  59 /  18  10  37  35
GREENWOOD     73  56  75  58 /  21  10  41  37

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/26





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