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000
FXUS64 KJAN 240138 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
834 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AT THE BACK END OF EVOLVING NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL PROVIDE US LITTLE IMPACT DESPITE SOME PASSING
OVERNIGHT CLOUDS. CLOUDS HELPED KEEP TEMPS COOLS THIS AFTERNOON AND
A WINDOW OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT AT MOST SPOTS WILL
ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS WELL DOWN IN THE 40S.
WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT GO CALM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND/OR PATCHY GROUND FOG. UPDATES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE MINOR. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. RADAR HAS BEEN DETECTING
SOME ECHOES AROUND 10 KFT AND HIGHER. GIVEN THE DEARTH OF MOISTURE IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT MEASURABLE RAIN WILL
OCCUR AS THIS PRECIP STRUGGLES TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.
NEVERTHELESS...CLOUDS WILL BE THICK ENOUGH IN SOME AREAS TO
INTERRUPT VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. IN SPITE OF
CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY...AND THEN WESTERLY...SURFACE FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY. /DL/

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LONGWAVE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM TX NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND INTO
CANADA. DRY NW FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CWA. MEANWHILE...A PATTERN
CHANGING SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW AND THEN RAPIDLY PULL
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT PULLS INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WHILE ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MID MS VALLEY.
DOWN IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EAST AS MID LEVEL SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY MONDAY. THIS WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING MOISTURE...BUT IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE (PW/S < 0.75 IN).

GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH (PW/S 1-1.5 IN) BY TUESDAY TO COMBINE WITH THE GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER...THUS JUST EXPECTING SHOWERS
INITIALLY.

MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY...ECMWF LOOKS SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT PULLS INTO THE MS/OH VALLEYS.
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SLOWING IN THE GFS AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL SW FLOW. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE
GFS/ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES AS PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE OVERTOP OF THE
BOUNDARY. LAPSE RATES STILL LOOK SCANTY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST
SHOWERS FOR NOW. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST. OTHERWISE....VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OF 3-6 KNOTS AND WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR CALM THIS
EVENING...AND REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       45  75  49  82 /   1   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      42  76  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     41  77  45  83 /   2   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   44  77  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       44  74  49  80 /   1   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    45  75  51  84 /   3   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     43  75  48  82 /   2   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/DL/26







000
FXUS64 KJAN 231946
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
246 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. RADAR HAS BEEN DETECTING
SOME ECHOES AROUND 10 KFT AND HIGHER. GIVEN THE DEARTH OF MOISTURE IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT MEASURABLE RAIN WILL
OCCUR AS THIS PRECIP STRUGGLES TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.
NEVERTHELESS...CLOUDS WILL BE THICK ENOUGH IN SOME AREAS TO
INTERRUPT VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. IN SPITE OF
CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY...AND THEN WESTERLY...SURFACE FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY. /DL/

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LONGWAVE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM TX NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND INTO
CANADA. DRY NW FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CWA. MEANWHILE...A PATTERN
CHANGING SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW AND THEN RAPIDLY PULL
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT PULLS INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WHILE ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MID MS VALLEY.
DOWN IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EAST AS MID LEVEL SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY MONDAY. THIS WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING MOISTURE...BUT IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE (PW/S < 0.75 IN).

GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH (PW/S 1-1.5 IN) BY TUESDAY TO COMBINE WITH THE GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER...THUS JUST EXPECTING SHOWERS
INITIALLY.

MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY...ECMWF LOOKS SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT PULLS INTO THE MS/OH VALLEYS.
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SLOWING IN THE GFS AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL SW FLOW. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE
GFS/ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES AS PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE OVERTOP OF THE
BOUNDARY. LAPSE RATES STILL LOOK SCANTY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST
SHOWERS FOR NOW. /26/


&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST. OTHERWISE....VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OF 3-6 KNOTS AND WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR CALM THIS
EVENING...AND REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       45  75  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      40  76  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     41  77  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   44  77  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       44  74  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    45  75  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     43  75  48  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/22/26






000
FXUS64 KJAN 231946
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
246 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. RADAR HAS BEEN DETECTING
SOME ECHOES AROUND 10 KFT AND HIGHER. GIVEN THE DEARTH OF MOISTURE IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT MEASURABLE RAIN WILL
OCCUR AS THIS PRECIP STRUGGLES TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.
NEVERTHELESS...CLOUDS WILL BE THICK ENOUGH IN SOME AREAS TO
INTERRUPT VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. IN SPITE OF
CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY...AND THEN WESTERLY...SURFACE FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY. /DL/

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LONGWAVE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM TX NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND INTO
CANADA. DRY NW FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CWA. MEANWHILE...A PATTERN
CHANGING SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW AND THEN RAPIDLY PULL
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT PULLS INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WHILE ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MID MS VALLEY.
DOWN IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EAST AS MID LEVEL SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY MONDAY. THIS WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING MOISTURE...BUT IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE (PW/S < 0.75 IN).

GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH (PW/S 1-1.5 IN) BY TUESDAY TO COMBINE WITH THE GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER...THUS JUST EXPECTING SHOWERS
INITIALLY.

MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY...ECMWF LOOKS SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT PULLS INTO THE MS/OH VALLEYS.
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SLOWING IN THE GFS AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL SW FLOW. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE
GFS/ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES AS PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE OVERTOP OF THE
BOUNDARY. LAPSE RATES STILL LOOK SCANTY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST
SHOWERS FOR NOW. /26/


&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST. OTHERWISE....VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OF 3-6 KNOTS AND WILL SUBSIDE TO NEAR CALM THIS
EVENING...AND REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       45  75  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      40  76  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     41  77  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   44  77  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       44  74  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    45  75  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     43  75  48  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/22/26






000
FXUS64 KJAN 231441 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
941 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS ON TAP AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. THOUGH AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR PRECIPITATION
(KJAN 12Z PWAT 0.31 IN). WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS AN INCREASE IN MOSTLY
HIGH CLOUDS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THE CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL
BE MADE. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. OTHERWISE....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 3-8
KNOTS AND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO CALM THIS EVENING...AND
REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. /19/22/

&&

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING..WITH
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE AS THEY FALL INTO THE
40S.  THEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE MIDDLE
70S...WHILE LOWS AGAIN FALL INTO THE 40S. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...MID
LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LONGWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
TX NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND INTO CANADA. DRY NW FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE CWA. MEANWHILE...A PATTERN CHANGING SYSTEM WILL
BE DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW AND THEN RAPIDLY PULL INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT PULLS INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WHILE ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MID MS VALLEY.
DOWN IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EAST AS MID LEVEL SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY MONDAY. THIS WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING MOISTURE...BUT IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE (PW/S < 0.75 IN).

GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH (PW/S 1-1.5 IN) BY TUESDAY TO COMBINE WITH THE GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER...THUS JUST EXPECTING SHOWERS
INITIALLY.

MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY...ECMWF LOOKS SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT PULLS INTO THE MS/OH VALLEYS.
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SLOWING IN THE GFS AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL SW FLOW. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE
GFS/ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES AS PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE OVERTOP OF THE
BOUNDARY. LAPSE RATES STILL LOOK SCANTY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST
SHOWERS FOR NOW. /26/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/22/19/26







000
FXUS64 KJAN 231441 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
941 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS ON TAP AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. THOUGH AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR PRECIPITATION
(KJAN 12Z PWAT 0.31 IN). WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS AN INCREASE IN MOSTLY
HIGH CLOUDS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THE CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL
BE MADE. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. OTHERWISE....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 3-8
KNOTS AND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO CALM THIS EVENING...AND
REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. /19/22/

&&

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING..WITH
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE AS THEY FALL INTO THE
40S.  THEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE MIDDLE
70S...WHILE LOWS AGAIN FALL INTO THE 40S. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...MID
LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LONGWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
TX NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND INTO CANADA. DRY NW FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE CWA. MEANWHILE...A PATTERN CHANGING SYSTEM WILL
BE DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW AND THEN RAPIDLY PULL INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT PULLS INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WHILE ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MID MS VALLEY.
DOWN IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EAST AS MID LEVEL SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY MONDAY. THIS WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING MOISTURE...BUT IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE (PW/S < 0.75 IN).

GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH (PW/S 1-1.5 IN) BY TUESDAY TO COMBINE WITH THE GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER...THUS JUST EXPECTING SHOWERS
INITIALLY.

MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY...ECMWF LOOKS SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT PULLS INTO THE MS/OH VALLEYS.
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SLOWING IN THE GFS AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL SW FLOW. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE
GFS/ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES AS PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE OVERTOP OF THE
BOUNDARY. LAPSE RATES STILL LOOK SCANTY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST
SHOWERS FOR NOW. /26/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/22/19/26







000
FXUS64 KJAN 230900
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FILTER INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY.  SKIES WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING..WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SITS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PAST DAYS AS THEY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE AS THEY FALL INTO THE 40S.  THEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE MIDDLE 70S...WHILE LOWS AGAIN FALL
INTO THE 40S. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...MID
LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LONGWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
TX NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND INTO CANADA. DRY NW FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE CWA. MEANWHILE...A PATTERN CHANGING SYSTEM WILL
BE DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW AND THEN RAPIDLY PULL INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT PULLS INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WHILE ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MID MS VALLEY.
DOWN IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EAST AS MID LEVEL SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY MONDAY. THIS WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL SLOWLY BEGIN INCREASING MOISTURE...BUT IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE (PW/S < 0.75 IN).

GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT MOISTURE AVAILIBILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH (PW/S 1-1.5 IN) BY TUESDAY TO COMBINE WITH THE GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER...THUS JUST EXPECTING SHOWERS
INITIALLY.

MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY...ECMWF LOOKS SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT PULLS INTO THE MS/OH VALLEYS.
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SLOWING IN THE GFS AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE MID LEVEL SW FLOW. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE
GFS/ECMWF ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES AS PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE OVERTOP OF THE
BOUNDARY. LAPSE RATES STILL LOOK SCANTY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST
SHOWERS FOR NOW. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH
BETWEEN 3-8 KNOTS AND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO CALM THIS
EVENING...AND REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  43  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      73  41  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     71  40  76  45 /   2   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   74  44  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       71  44  76  48 /   1   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    68  45  75  49 /   5   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     68  42  74  49 /   2   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/26







000
FXUS64 KJAN 230202 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
902 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
NOT MUCH NEED FOR AN UPDATE TONIGHT. THE GRIDS SEEM TO BE RIGHT ON
TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. LOWS TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TOMORROW MORNING. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A LITTLE TONIGHT TO AROUND 2-5KTS AND
RESUME NEAR 5KTS THURSDAY. /28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

AS THE H5 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE
EAST...THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH TO THE N SLOWLY BUILDS TO THE
S/SW INTO THE REGION...EXPECT A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA AS PWATS FALL TO AROUND OR LESS THAN 0.3 INCHES.
ANOTHER S/WV DISTURBANCE TO THE W WILL INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND BRING SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING THIS CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT WARMING BUT WE
COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY THAN TODAY DUE TO COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT AND LESS EFFICIENT MIXING. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N FINALLY
BUILDS S AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES E OF THE AREA...EXPECT WARMER
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S ON FRIDAY. THE LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR ON FRIDAY AS PWATS FALL FROM AROUND HALF AN INCH TO NEAR 0.3
INCHES. EXPECT A CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S IN THE W/NW.

FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY DECENT SPREAD IN
MAV/MET/EURO MOS AT TIMES FOR LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. GFS
SEEMED TOO COOL AS THE OPERATIONAL WAS ON THE LOW END OF THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THUS...WENT NEAR A BLEND OF EITHER MAV/EURO FOR
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AND A BLEND OF MET/EURO FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE ON
THURSDAY/FRIDAY DUE TO COOLER TEMPS ALOFT/LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.
ADJUSTED SKY/TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS TO CURRENT TRENDS. RELEVANT PORTION
OF LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY... THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS A FIRM GRIP OVER
THE REGION. WHILE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD...SOME DISCREPANCIES DO CREEP INTO THE MODELS COME NEXT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN REGARDS TO WHETHER A WEAK FRONT WILL OR
WILL NOT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING OUR NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN...ALBEIT A SMALL CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TO START THE PERIOD SATURDAY
TO LOW 80S ON MONDAY TO AROUND 80 TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL ALSO FOLLOW SUIT AS THEY BEGIN THE PERIOD
SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S...AND END THE PERIOD
NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 50S. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       43  72  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      40  71  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     42  72  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   43  75  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       45  73  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    46  68  44  76 /   0   4   0   0
GREENWOOD     42  70  43  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 230202 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
902 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
NOT MUCH NEED FOR AN UPDATE TONIGHT. THE GRIDS SEEM TO BE RIGHT ON
TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. LOWS TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST LATE TOMORROW MORNING. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A LITTLE TONIGHT TO AROUND 2-5KTS AND
RESUME NEAR 5KTS THURSDAY. /28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

AS THE H5 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE
EAST...THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH TO THE N SLOWLY BUILDS TO THE
S/SW INTO THE REGION...EXPECT A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA AS PWATS FALL TO AROUND OR LESS THAN 0.3 INCHES.
ANOTHER S/WV DISTURBANCE TO THE W WILL INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND BRING SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING THIS CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT WARMING BUT WE
COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY THAN TODAY DUE TO COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT AND LESS EFFICIENT MIXING. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N FINALLY
BUILDS S AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES E OF THE AREA...EXPECT WARMER
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S ON FRIDAY. THE LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR ON FRIDAY AS PWATS FALL FROM AROUND HALF AN INCH TO NEAR 0.3
INCHES. EXPECT A CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S IN THE W/NW.

FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY DECENT SPREAD IN
MAV/MET/EURO MOS AT TIMES FOR LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. GFS
SEEMED TOO COOL AS THE OPERATIONAL WAS ON THE LOW END OF THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THUS...WENT NEAR A BLEND OF EITHER MAV/EURO FOR
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AND A BLEND OF MET/EURO FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE ON
THURSDAY/FRIDAY DUE TO COOLER TEMPS ALOFT/LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.
ADJUSTED SKY/TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS TO CURRENT TRENDS. RELEVANT PORTION
OF LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY... THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS A FIRM GRIP OVER
THE REGION. WHILE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD...SOME DISCREPANCIES DO CREEP INTO THE MODELS COME NEXT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN REGARDS TO WHETHER A WEAK FRONT WILL OR
WILL NOT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING OUR NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN...ALBEIT A SMALL CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TO START THE PERIOD SATURDAY
TO LOW 80S ON MONDAY TO AROUND 80 TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL ALSO FOLLOW SUIT AS THEY BEGIN THE PERIOD
SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S...AND END THE PERIOD
NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 50S. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       43  72  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      40  71  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     42  72  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   43  75  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       45  73  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    46  68  44  76 /   0   4   0   0
GREENWOOD     42  70  43  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 222033
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
333 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

AS THE H5 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE
EAST...THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH TO THE N SLOWLY BUILDS TO THE
S/SW INTO THE REGION...EXPECT A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA AS PWATS FALL TO AROUND OR LESS THAN 0.3 INCHES.
ANOTHER S/WV DISTURBANCE TO THE W WILL INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND BRING SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING THIS CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT WARMING BUT WE
COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY THAN TODAY DUE TO COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT AND LESS EFFICIENT MIXING. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N FINALLY
BUILDS S AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES E OF THE AREA...EXPECT WARMER
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S ON FRIDAY. THE LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR ON FRIDAY AS PWATS FALL FROM AROUND HALF AN INCH TO NEAR 0.3
INCHES. EXPECT A CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S IN THE W/NW.

FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY DECENT SPREAD IN
MAV/MET/EURO MOS AT TIMES FOR LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. GFS
SEEMED TOO COOL AS THE OPERATIONAL WAS ON THE LOW END OF THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THUS...WENT NEAR A BLEND OF EITHER MAV/EURO FOR
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AND A BLEND OF MET/EURO FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE ON
THURSDAY/FRIDAY DUE TO COOLER TEMPS ALOFT/LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.
ADJUSTED SKY/TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS TO CURRENT TRENDS. RELEVANT PORTION
OF LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY... THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS A FIRM GRIP OVER
THE REGION. WHILE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD...SOME DISCREPANCIES DO CREEP INTO THE MODELS COME NEXT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN REGARDS TO WHETHER A WEAK FRONT WILL OR
WILL NOT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING OUR NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN...ALBEIT A SMALL CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TO START THE PERIOD SATURDAY
TO LOW 80S ON MONDAY TO AROUND 80 TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL ALSO FOLLOW SUIT AS THEY BEGIN THE PERIOD
SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S...AND END THE PERIOD
NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 50S. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SMOKE FROM A NEARBY FIRE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD AT JAN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT CAUSE IMPACTS TO AVIATION. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       43  72  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      40  71  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     42  72  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   43  75  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       45  73  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    46  68  44  76 /   0   4   0   0
GREENWOOD     42  70  43  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/19/DL







000
FXUS64 KJAN 222033
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
333 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

AS THE H5 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE
EAST...THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH TO THE N SLOWLY BUILDS TO THE
S/SW INTO THE REGION...EXPECT A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S
ACROSS THE AREA AS PWATS FALL TO AROUND OR LESS THAN 0.3 INCHES.
ANOTHER S/WV DISTURBANCE TO THE W WILL INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND BRING SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING THIS CLOUD COVER TO INHIBIT WARMING BUT WE
COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY THAN TODAY DUE TO COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT AND LESS EFFICIENT MIXING. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N FINALLY
BUILDS S AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES E OF THE AREA...EXPECT WARMER
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S ON FRIDAY. THE LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR ON FRIDAY AS PWATS FALL FROM AROUND HALF AN INCH TO NEAR 0.3
INCHES. EXPECT A CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S IN THE W/NW.

FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY DECENT SPREAD IN
MAV/MET/EURO MOS AT TIMES FOR LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. GFS
SEEMED TOO COOL AS THE OPERATIONAL WAS ON THE LOW END OF THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THUS...WENT NEAR A BLEND OF EITHER MAV/EURO FOR
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AND A BLEND OF MET/EURO FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE ON
THURSDAY/FRIDAY DUE TO COOLER TEMPS ALOFT/LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.
ADJUSTED SKY/TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS TO CURRENT TRENDS. RELEVANT PORTION
OF LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY... THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS A FIRM GRIP OVER
THE REGION. WHILE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD...SOME DISCREPANCIES DO CREEP INTO THE MODELS COME NEXT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN REGARDS TO WHETHER A WEAK FRONT WILL OR
WILL NOT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING OUR NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN...ALBEIT A SMALL CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TO START THE PERIOD SATURDAY
TO LOW 80S ON MONDAY TO AROUND 80 TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL ALSO FOLLOW SUIT AS THEY BEGIN THE PERIOD
SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S...AND END THE PERIOD
NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 50S. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SMOKE FROM A NEARBY FIRE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD AT JAN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT CAUSE IMPACTS TO AVIATION. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       43  72  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      40  71  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     42  72  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   43  75  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       45  73  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    46  68  44  76 /   0   4   0   0
GREENWOOD     42  70  43  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/19/DL







000
FXUS64 KJAN 221449 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
949 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
QUIET AFTERNOON IN STORE AS DRY FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
DEWPOINTS ARE UPPER 40S IN NE MS WHILE IN THE MID 50S IN THE SW. 12Z
KJAN SOUNDING SHOWS H900 TEMPS AROUND 13-14C...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S. WENT WITH EUROMOS AS TEMPS WERE WARMING SLIGHTLY
QUICKER AND EFFICIENT MIXING/ENSEMBLE MOS SUPPORT HIGHS A DEGREE OR
SO WARMER. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE NE TODAY AS 1024MB HIGH
PRESSURE AND INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILD IN FROM THE NE.
MODIFIED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE DAY...
BECOMING LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. /DL/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE REINFORCING FRONT. DUE TO THIS THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST WILL BE PRIMARILY A TEMP TYPE FORECAST. OVERALL...GUIDANCE
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS AND VALUES WILL BE FOLLOWED. THE
EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE WITH TODAY WHERE A COMBINATION OF THE NAM
OR RAW GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FIT THE SITUATION BETTER. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE SOME 3-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A RANGE ACROSS THE
CWA OF 70-77 DEGREES. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
INTO FRI MORNING WITH LOWS THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS MAINLY IN THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS THU WILL REFLECT THE SAME TREND AND RANGE FROM
70-75. /CME/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY... THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS A FIRM GRIP OVER THE
REGION.  WHILE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...SOME DISCREPANCIES DO CREEP INTO THE MODELS COME NEXT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN REGARDS TO WHETHER A WEAK FRONT WILL
OR WILL NOT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING OUR
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN...ALBEIT A SMALL CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM THE MID 70S TO START THE PERIOD FRIDAY...TO AROUND 80
TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL ALSO FOLLOW
SUIT AS THEY BEGIN THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
TO AROUND 50...AND END THE PERIOD NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE
50S. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  43  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      75  39  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     77  42  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   78  45  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       76  46  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    73  44  70  43 /   0   0   4   0
GREENWOOD     73  41  71  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/DL/CME/19







000
FXUS64 KJAN 220752
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
252 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE REINFORCING FRONT. DUE TO THIS THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST WILL BE PRIMARILY A TEMP TYPE FORECAST. OVERALL...GUIDANCE
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS AND VALUES WILL BE FOLLOWED. THE
EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE WITH TODAY WHERE A COMBINATION OF THE NAM
OR RAW GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FIT THE SITUATION BETTER. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE SOME 3-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A RANGE ACROSS THE
CWA OF 70-77 DEGREES. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
INTO FRI MORNING WITH LOWS THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS MAINLY IN THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS THU WILL REFLECT THE SAME TREND AND RANGE FROM
70-75. /CME/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY... THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS A FIRM GRIP OVER THE
REGION.  WHILE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...SOME DISCREPANCIES DO CREEP INTO THE MODELS COME NEXT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IN REGARDS TO WHETHER A WEAK FRONT WILL
OR WILL NOT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING OUR
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN...ALBEIT A SMALL CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM THE MID 70S TO START THE PERIOD FRIDAY...TO AROUND 80
TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL ALSO FOLLOW
SUIT AS THEY BEGIN THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
TO AROUND 50...AND END THE PERIOD NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE
50S. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF INSTANCE OF MVFR VIS CONDITIONS
AT A SITE OR TWO UNTIL 13Z...BUT THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR TODAY/TONIGHT. LOOK FOR STEADY NNE WINDS TODAY WITH A DECREASE
IN WINDS FOR TONIGHT. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       75  43  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      74  39  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     76  42  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   78  45  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       76  46  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    73  44  70  43 /   0   0   4   0
GREENWOOD     72  41  71  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/19/







000
FXUS64 KJAN 220151 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
851 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
TONIGHT IS A LOT LIKE LAST NIGHT. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND
WHERE THEY WERE THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE. HAD TO INCREASE
THE DEWPOINTS AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS JUST A BIT FOR THIS
UPDATE. PATCHY FOG AROUND LOW-LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN THE HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED AREAS OF GROUND FOG WILL BE LESS LIKELY AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK FRONT.
/DL/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

EVIDENCE OF THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS SEEN IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS WITH STRATOCUMULUS DECK ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
LOWER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS MIXING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH MS.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHTS AND MILD
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS WE GO THROUGH MID WEEK. GIVEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE ARKLAMISS AND CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT
WINDS ALONG WITH DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET DOWN TO NEAR 37F OVER EASTERN MS...BUT
PROBABLY NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT FROST. /EC/

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST IS SET TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S TO START THE PERIOD THURSDAY...TO AROUND 80
TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT TUESDAY. THE SAME GOES FOR
LOWS...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. A BOUNDARY
SWINGING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY COULD BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
REGION. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       48  75  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      45  75  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     48  77  41  74 /   0   0   0   1
HATTIESBURG   50  78  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       51  75  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    50  73  43  70 /   0   0   0   7
GREENWOOD     46  72  41  72 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 212047
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
347 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

EVIDENCE OF THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS SEEN IN VISIBIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS WITH STRATOCUMULUS DECK ROUGHLY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
LOWER TEMPS/DEWPOINTS MIXING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH MS.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHTS AND MILD
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS WE GO THROUGH MID WEEK. GIVEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE ARKLAMISS AND CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT
WINDS ALONG WITH DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET DOWN TO NEAR 37F OVER EASTERN MS...BUT
PROBABLY NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT FROST. /EC/

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST IS SET TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S TO START THE PERIOD THURSDAY...TO AROUND 80
TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT TUESDAY. THE SAME GOES FOR
LOWS...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. A BOUNDARY
SWINGING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY COULD BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
REGION. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED AREAS OF GROUND FOG WILL BE LESS LIKELY AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK FRONT.
/DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       48  75  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      45  75  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     48  77  41  74 /   0   0   0   1
HATTIESBURG   50  78  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       51  75  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    50  73  43  70 /   0   0   0   7
GREENWOOD     46  72  41  72 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

EC/19/DL/








000
FXUS64 KJAN 211541
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1041 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUD COVER OVER NE LA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR ON THE WAY FOR
TONIGHT. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN AND EVOLUTION OF IMPORTANT FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LINGERING...THIS CONTINUES TO
BE A TEMP TYPE FORECAST. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LOOK FOR LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND A TUE THAT WILL BE OVERALL WARMER THAN THE PREV
SEVERAL. EFFICIENT WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE TRUE ARRIVAL SOME SOME
COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY TO PEAK FROM THE UPPER
70S N TO LOWER 80S S. AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SFC WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP READINGS FROM
FALLING OFF TO MAXIMUM POTENTIAL AND LOOK FOR LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH CAA ONGOING WED...HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
THAN TODAY AND LOOK FOR A RANGE OF 70-77 FOR N/NE TO S. THE GFS MOS
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND MORE OF A NAM/RAW OUTPUT WAS USED. MUCH
BETTER RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WED NGT AND LOWS
BETWEEN 40-45 ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW SELECT COOL SPOTS TOUCHING THE
UPPER 30S BRIEFLY. /CME/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET
FORECAST IS SET TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S TO START THE
PERIOD THURSDAY...TO AROUND 80 TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT
TUESDAY.  THE SAME GOES FOR LOWS...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY
NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.  A BOUNDARY SWINGING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY COULD
BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BRIEF VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT WED MORNING AT MEI AND HBG...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM. /DL/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 211541
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1041 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUD COVER OVER NE LA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR ON THE WAY FOR
TONIGHT. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN AND EVOLUTION OF IMPORTANT FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LINGERING...THIS CONTINUES TO
BE A TEMP TYPE FORECAST. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LOOK FOR LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND A TUE THAT WILL BE OVERALL WARMER THAN THE PREV
SEVERAL. EFFICIENT WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE TRUE ARRIVAL SOME SOME
COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY TO PEAK FROM THE UPPER
70S N TO LOWER 80S S. AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SFC WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP READINGS FROM
FALLING OFF TO MAXIMUM POTENTIAL AND LOOK FOR LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH CAA ONGOING WED...HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
THAN TODAY AND LOOK FOR A RANGE OF 70-77 FOR N/NE TO S. THE GFS MOS
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND MORE OF A NAM/RAW OUTPUT WAS USED. MUCH
BETTER RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WED NGT AND LOWS
BETWEEN 40-45 ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW SELECT COOL SPOTS TOUCHING THE
UPPER 30S BRIEFLY. /CME/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET
FORECAST IS SET TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S TO START THE
PERIOD THURSDAY...TO AROUND 80 TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT
TUESDAY.  THE SAME GOES FOR LOWS...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY
NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.  A BOUNDARY SWINGING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY COULD
BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BRIEF VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT WED MORNING AT MEI AND HBG...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM. /DL/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 211541
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1041 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUD COVER OVER NE LA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR ON THE WAY FOR
TONIGHT. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN AND EVOLUTION OF IMPORTANT FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LINGERING...THIS CONTINUES TO
BE A TEMP TYPE FORECAST. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LOOK FOR LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND A TUE THAT WILL BE OVERALL WARMER THAN THE PREV
SEVERAL. EFFICIENT WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE TRUE ARRIVAL SOME SOME
COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY TO PEAK FROM THE UPPER
70S N TO LOWER 80S S. AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SFC WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP READINGS FROM
FALLING OFF TO MAXIMUM POTENTIAL AND LOOK FOR LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH CAA ONGOING WED...HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
THAN TODAY AND LOOK FOR A RANGE OF 70-77 FOR N/NE TO S. THE GFS MOS
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND MORE OF A NAM/RAW OUTPUT WAS USED. MUCH
BETTER RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WED NGT AND LOWS
BETWEEN 40-45 ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW SELECT COOL SPOTS TOUCHING THE
UPPER 30S BRIEFLY. /CME/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET
FORECAST IS SET TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S TO START THE
PERIOD THURSDAY...TO AROUND 80 TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT
TUESDAY.  THE SAME GOES FOR LOWS...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY
NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.  A BOUNDARY SWINGING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY COULD
BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BRIEF VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT WED MORNING AT MEI AND HBG...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM. /DL/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 210750
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
250 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN AND EVOLUTION OF IMPORTANT FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LINGERING...THIS CONTINUES TO
BE A TEMP TYPE FORECAST. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LOOK FOR LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND A TUE THAT WILL BE OVERALL WARMER THAN THE PREV
SEVERAL. EFFICIENT WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE TRUE ARRIVAL SOME SOME
COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY TO PEAK FROM THE UPPER
70S N TO LOWER 80S S. AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SFC WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP READINGS FROM
FALLING OFF TO MAXIMUM POTENTIAL AND LOOK FOR LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH CAA ONGOING WED...HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
THAN TODAY AND LOOK FOR A RANGE OF 70-77 FOR N/NE TO S. THE GFS MOS
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND MORE OF A NAM/RAW OUTPUT WAS USED. MUCH
BETTER RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WED NGT AND LOWS
BETWEEN 40-45 ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW SELECT COOL SPOTS TOUCHING THE
UPPER 30S BRIEFLY. /CME/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET
FORECAST IS SET TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S TO START THE
PERIOD THURSDAY...TO AROUND 80 TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT
TUESDAY.  THE SAME GOES FOR LOWS...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY
NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.  A BOUNDARY SWINGING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY COULD
BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...WHILE A SITE OR TWO MAY SEE A BRIEF RESTRICTION FROM
SHALLOW/PATCHY GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY WITH LIGHT N TYPE WINDS. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80  49  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      80  46  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     80  48  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   82  52  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       79  52  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    79  52  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     79  47  73  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/19/







000
FXUS64 KJAN 210750
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
250 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON
THE PATTERN AND EVOLUTION OF IMPORTANT FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LINGERING...THIS CONTINUES TO
BE A TEMP TYPE FORECAST. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY LOOK FOR LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND A TUE THAT WILL BE OVERALL WARMER THAN THE PREV
SEVERAL. EFFICIENT WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE TRUE ARRIVAL SOME SOME
COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY TO PEAK FROM THE UPPER
70S N TO LOWER 80S S. AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SFC WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP READINGS FROM
FALLING OFF TO MAXIMUM POTENTIAL AND LOOK FOR LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH CAA ONGOING WED...HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
THAN TODAY AND LOOK FOR A RANGE OF 70-77 FOR N/NE TO S. THE GFS MOS
WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND MORE OF A NAM/RAW OUTPUT WAS USED. MUCH
BETTER RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WED NGT AND LOWS
BETWEEN 40-45 ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW SELECT COOL SPOTS TOUCHING THE
UPPER 30S BRIEFLY. /CME/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET
FORECAST IS SET TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S TO START THE
PERIOD THURSDAY...TO AROUND 80 TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT
TUESDAY.  THE SAME GOES FOR LOWS...WHICH WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND WARM INTO THE MID 50S BY
NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.  A BOUNDARY SWINGING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY COULD
BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THEN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...WHILE A SITE OR TWO MAY SEE A BRIEF RESTRICTION FROM
SHALLOW/PATCHY GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY WITH LIGHT N TYPE WINDS. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80  49  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      80  46  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     80  48  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   82  52  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       79  52  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    79  52  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     79  47  73  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/19/






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