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000
FXUS64 KJAN 181001
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AREA RADARS AND SATELLITE
WAS PICKING UP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY FOR SOME MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN.
HIGH RES MODELS SHOWS LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
AS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IT
WILL START TO BRING SOME BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT. AREA SOUNDINGS SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR SOME
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE SOUTHWEST. AS WE PUSH INTO FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THINGS START TO GET WOUND UP AS STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT...QG FORCING...AND SOME STRONG ASCENT BRINGS SOME HEAVY RAINS
TO AFFECT THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR SOME EMBEDDED ISOLATED CONVECTION...WHICH WILL HELP
WITH HIGHER RAINFALL RATES FOR THE SOUTH HALF FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IN RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL GIVE THE REGION FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY 5 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL GIVE A LIMITED RISK OF
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREAS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR IN THE HWO AND
GRAPHICAST./17/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY...SATURDAY WILL START
OUT WET FOR THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA AS THE RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
STILL BE FALLING. THE RAIN SHOULD END BY NOON AS THE SURFACE LOW AND
SHORTWAVE SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST OF OUR CWA. AS THE LOWS SHIFT EAST A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RIDGE
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR DELTA REGION. INDUCED SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE DRY BUT
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE LAST ONE AND ONLY LOW POPS OF LIGHT QPF IS
EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA MONDAY BUT A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CLOSED OFF A LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY RESULTING IN A DEEPENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY.
HIGHEST POPS OF THE LONG TERM WL BE CARRIED ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT SENDING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND LAST
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
AND RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO MOVE BACK INTO OUR CWA CHRISTMAS NIGHT AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FOR FRIDAY. SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED CHRISTMAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS
(~3000 TO 5000 FT) AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING IN
THE GLH/GWO TO JAN/HKS AREA. EXPECT LOWER CIGS/-RA TO KEEP MAINLY
WEST OF THE GTR/MEI CORRIDOR AS WE GO THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVNG. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       52  43  50  42 /  32  27  90  85
MERIDIAN      54  41  50  43 /  19  15  81  87
VICKSBURG     51  44  48  42 /  37  35  93  82
HATTIESBURG   61  46  52  47 /  13  25  85  82
NATCHEZ       55  48  52  44 /  40  53  94  79
GREENVILLE    49  41  47  39 /  34  19  87  82
GREENWOOD     51  40  48  40 /  30  15  82  86

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/22/17









000
FXUS64 KJAN 181001
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AREA RADARS AND SATELLITE
WAS PICKING UP LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY FOR SOME MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN.
HIGH RES MODELS SHOWS LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
AS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IT
WILL START TO BRING SOME BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT. AREA SOUNDINGS SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR SOME
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE SOUTHWEST. AS WE PUSH INTO FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THINGS START TO GET WOUND UP AS STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT...QG FORCING...AND SOME STRONG ASCENT BRINGS SOME HEAVY RAINS
TO AFFECT THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR SOME EMBEDDED ISOLATED CONVECTION...WHICH WILL HELP
WITH HIGHER RAINFALL RATES FOR THE SOUTH HALF FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IN RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL GIVE THE REGION FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY 5 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL GIVE A LIMITED RISK OF
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREAS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR IN THE HWO AND
GRAPHICAST./17/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY...SATURDAY WILL START
OUT WET FOR THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA AS THE RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
STILL BE FALLING. THE RAIN SHOULD END BY NOON AS THE SURFACE LOW AND
SHORTWAVE SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST OF OUR CWA. AS THE LOWS SHIFT EAST A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL RIDGE
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR DELTA REGION. INDUCED SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE DRY BUT
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE LAST ONE AND ONLY LOW POPS OF LIGHT QPF IS
EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA MONDAY BUT A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CLOSED OFF A LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY RESULTING IN A DEEPENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY.
HIGHEST POPS OF THE LONG TERM WL BE CARRIED ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT SENDING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND LAST
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
AND RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO MOVE BACK INTO OUR CWA CHRISTMAS NIGHT AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FOR FRIDAY. SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED CHRISTMAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS
(~3000 TO 5000 FT) AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING IN
THE GLH/GWO TO JAN/HKS AREA. EXPECT LOWER CIGS/-RA TO KEEP MAINLY
WEST OF THE GTR/MEI CORRIDOR AS WE GO THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVNG. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       52  43  50  42 /  32  27  90  85
MERIDIAN      54  41  50  43 /  19  15  81  87
VICKSBURG     51  44  48  42 /  37  35  93  82
HATTIESBURG   61  46  52  47 /  13  25  85  82
NATCHEZ       55  48  52  44 /  40  53  94  79
GREENVILLE    49  41  47  39 /  34  19  87  82
GREENWOOD     51  40  48  40 /  30  15  82  86

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/22/17










000
FXUS64 KJAN 180242 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
842 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
RADAR IS SHOWING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN OVER IN ARKANSAS WITH
SLEET IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY WHICH WAS
TRIGGERED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE HAS A CHANCE OF REACHING INTO OUR FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND PARISHES BEFORE 12Z. FOR THE UPDATE...POPS
WERE LOWERED IN ORDER TO CUT DOWN ON THE BREADTH OF POSSIBILITY FOR
THE RAIN REACHING INTO OUR CWA. OTHERWISE THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
LOOK PRETTY GOOD. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH PRIMARILY AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING
LOWERING CIGS (~3000 TO 5000 FT) AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE GLH/GWO TO JAN/HKS AREA. EXPECT LOWER
CIGS/-RA TO KEEP MAINLY WEST OF THE GTR/MEI CORRIDOR AS WE GO THROUGH
THURS AFTN/EVNG. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

..HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

SHORT TERM...
SURFACE HIGH TO THE N OF THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE E TONIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD BUT HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUALLY STREAM IN FROM THE W/SW IN ADVANCE OF THE S/WV TO
OUR WEST. TEMPS WILL BE COLD TONIGHT IN THE MID 30S/LOW 40S IN THE W.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME POPS UP IN THE NW DELTA
TONIGHT WITH THE 18Z GFS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z EURO ON LIGHT RAIN
MAINLY IN THE FAR NW DELTA TONIGHT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S IN THE N TO LOW 60S IN THE S DUE TO SOME LOW LEVEL
WAA BRINGING H925 TEMPS UP NEAR 8-11 DEG C WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
FURTHER TO THE N/NW. GFS SEEMED GOOD FOR RAINFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
OVER S TX...H3/H5 UPPER LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AND AID IN
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN OUR AREA WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE W/SW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY. SOME MAUL POTENTIAL/ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LEAVE SOME
CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE SW. WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE ON LOWS
FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES/CLOUDS. AS UPPER LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS NEAR 100KTS+...THE SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TRACK E AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS E. DUE TO SPLIT FLOW/UL DIFFLUENCE/DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT/DEFORMATION ZONE...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LOOKS TO
BEGIN IN THE W AND SPREADING TO THE E FRIDAY. SOME THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE ALONG/S OF I-20 CORRIDOR DUE TO MAUL/ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DUE TO RAINFALL/CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA...WENT NEAR COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH CUT HIGHS AROUND 3 DEGREES OR
SO ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL LOOKS TO
REMAIN BETWEEN 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY. 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

AS THE LOW TRACKS S OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO TRACK INTO THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES IN THE W. DUE TO RAINFALL/CLOUDS...WENT NEAR
EURO FOR LOWS WHICH WAS WARMER SATURDAY MORNING. RELEVANT PORTION OF
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

LONG TERM...
AS WE MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE WEEKEND DRIER WEATHER
WILL BE IN CONTROL. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO SHOWED BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM
THEN THE DRIER GFS. THE CANADIAN MODEL GENERALLY RESTRICTS THE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE EURO WAS
SLOWER IN MOVING THE RAINS OUT ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING. SO
OPTED TO GO WITH THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION IN MOVING THE RAIN OUT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM DRIER WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE ARKLAMISS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       40  56  44  52 /   8  26  28  88
MERIDIAN      36  56  40  50 /   0  21  17  79
VICKSBURG     40  56  45  51 /  12  28  38  94
HATTIESBURG   36  63  45  55 /   0  10  19  61
NATCHEZ       42  58  50  55 /  10  28  48  97
GREENVILLE    40  49  42  49 /  31  25  19  84
GREENWOOD     39  52  41  48 /  17  25  15  80

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KJAN 180242 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
842 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
RADAR IS SHOWING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN OVER IN ARKANSAS WITH
SLEET IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY WHICH WAS
TRIGGERED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE HAS A CHANCE OF REACHING INTO OUR FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND PARISHES BEFORE 12Z. FOR THE UPDATE...POPS
WERE LOWERED IN ORDER TO CUT DOWN ON THE BREADTH OF POSSIBILITY FOR
THE RAIN REACHING INTO OUR CWA. OTHERWISE THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
LOOK PRETTY GOOD. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH PRIMARILY AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING
LOWERING CIGS (~3000 TO 5000 FT) AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE GLH/GWO TO JAN/HKS AREA. EXPECT LOWER
CIGS/-RA TO KEEP MAINLY WEST OF THE GTR/MEI CORRIDOR AS WE GO THROUGH
THURS AFTN/EVNG. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

..HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

SHORT TERM...
SURFACE HIGH TO THE N OF THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE E TONIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD BUT HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUALLY STREAM IN FROM THE W/SW IN ADVANCE OF THE S/WV TO
OUR WEST. TEMPS WILL BE COLD TONIGHT IN THE MID 30S/LOW 40S IN THE W.
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME POPS UP IN THE NW DELTA
TONIGHT WITH THE 18Z GFS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z EURO ON LIGHT RAIN
MAINLY IN THE FAR NW DELTA TONIGHT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S IN THE N TO LOW 60S IN THE S DUE TO SOME LOW LEVEL
WAA BRINGING H925 TEMPS UP NEAR 8-11 DEG C WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
FURTHER TO THE N/NW. GFS SEEMED GOOD FOR RAINFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
OVER S TX...H3/H5 UPPER LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AND AID IN
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN OUR AREA WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE W/SW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY. SOME MAUL POTENTIAL/ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LEAVE SOME
CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE SW. WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE ON LOWS
FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES/CLOUDS. AS UPPER LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS NEAR 100KTS+...THE SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TRACK E AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS E. DUE TO SPLIT FLOW/UL DIFFLUENCE/DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT/DEFORMATION ZONE...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LOOKS TO
BEGIN IN THE W AND SPREADING TO THE E FRIDAY. SOME THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE ALONG/S OF I-20 CORRIDOR DUE TO MAUL/ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DUE TO RAINFALL/CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA...WENT NEAR COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH CUT HIGHS AROUND 3 DEGREES OR
SO ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL LOOKS TO
REMAIN BETWEEN 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY. 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

AS THE LOW TRACKS S OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO TRACK INTO THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES IN THE W. DUE TO RAINFALL/CLOUDS...WENT NEAR
EURO FOR LOWS WHICH WAS WARMER SATURDAY MORNING. RELEVANT PORTION OF
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

LONG TERM...
AS WE MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE WEEKEND DRIER WEATHER
WILL BE IN CONTROL. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO SHOWED BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM
THEN THE DRIER GFS. THE CANADIAN MODEL GENERALLY RESTRICTS THE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE EURO WAS
SLOWER IN MOVING THE RAINS OUT ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING. SO
OPTED TO GO WITH THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION IN MOVING THE RAIN OUT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM DRIER WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE ARKLAMISS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       40  56  44  52 /   8  26  28  88
MERIDIAN      36  56  40  50 /   0  21  17  79
VICKSBURG     40  56  45  51 /  12  28  38  94
HATTIESBURG   36  63  45  55 /   0  10  19  61
NATCHEZ       42  58  50  55 /  10  28  48  97
GREENVILLE    40  49  42  49 /  31  25  19  84
GREENWOOD     39  52  41  48 /  17  25  15  80

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 172201
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
401 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH TO THE N OF THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE E
TONIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUALLY
STREAM IN FROM THE W/SW IN ADVANCE OF THE S/WV TO OUR WEST. TEMPS
WILL BE COLD TONIGHT IN THE MID 30S/LOW 40S IN THE W. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME POPS UP IN THE NW DELTA TONIGHT
WITH THE 18Z GFS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z EURO ON LIGHT RAIN MAINLY
IN THE FAR NW DELTA TONIGHT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S IN THE N TO LOW 60S IN THE S DUE TO SOME LOW LEVEL WAA
BRINGING H925 TEMPS UP NEAR 8-11 DEG C WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
FURTHER TO THE N/NW. GFS SEEMED GOOD FOR RAINFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
OVER S TX...H3/H5 UPPER LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AND AID IN
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN OUR AREA WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE W/SW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY. SOME MAUL POTENTIAL/ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LEAVE SOME
CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE SW. WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE ON LOWS
FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES/CLOUDS. AS UPPER LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS NEAR 100KTS+...THE SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TRACK E AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS E. DUE TO SPLIT FLOW/UL DIFFLUENCE/DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT/DEFORMATION ZONE...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LOOKS TO
BEGIN IN THE W AND SPREADING TO THE E FRIDAY. SOME THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE ALONG/S OF I-20 CORRIDOR DUE TO MAUL/ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DUE TO RAINFALL/CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA...WENT NEAR COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH CUT HIGHS AROUND 3 DEGREES OR
SO ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL LOOKS TO
REMAIN BETWEEN 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY. 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

AS THE LOW TRACKS S OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO TRACK INTO THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES IN THE W. DUE TO RAINFALL/CLOUDS...WENT NEAR
EURO FOR LOWS WHICH WAS WARMER SATURDAY MORNING. RELEVANT PORTION OF
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

.LONG TERM...

AS WE MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE WEEKEND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE IN
CONTROL. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE EURO SHOWED BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM THEN
THE DRIER GFS. THE CANADIAN MODEL GENERALLY RESTRICTS THE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE EURO WAS
SLOWER IN MOVING THE RAINS OUT ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING. SO
OPTED TO GO WITH THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION IN MOVING THE RAIN OUT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM DRIER WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE ARKLAMISS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MOST SITES...BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR CEILINGS
AND LIGHT RAIN AFTER 10-11Z AT GLH/GWO. THE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE N-NE BECOMING MORE ERLY OVERNIGHT. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       40  56  44  52 /  16  26  28  88
MERIDIAN      36  56  40  50 /   6  21  17  79
VICKSBURG     40  56  45  51 /  20  28  38  94
HATTIESBURG   36  63  45  55 /   5  10  19  61
NATCHEZ       42  58  50  55 /  18  28  48  97
GREENVILLE    40  49  42  49 /  39  25  19  84
GREENWOOD     39  52  41  48 /  25  25  15  80

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/17/15







000
FXUS64 KJAN 172201
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
401 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH TO THE N OF THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE E
TONIGHT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUALLY
STREAM IN FROM THE W/SW IN ADVANCE OF THE S/WV TO OUR WEST. TEMPS
WILL BE COLD TONIGHT IN THE MID 30S/LOW 40S IN THE W. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME POPS UP IN THE NW DELTA TONIGHT
WITH THE 18Z GFS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z EURO ON LIGHT RAIN MAINLY
IN THE FAR NW DELTA TONIGHT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S IN THE N TO LOW 60S IN THE S DUE TO SOME LOW LEVEL WAA
BRINGING H925 TEMPS UP NEAR 8-11 DEG C WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
FURTHER TO THE N/NW. GFS SEEMED GOOD FOR RAINFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
OVER S TX...H3/H5 UPPER LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AND AID IN
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN OUR AREA WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
HEAVIER RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE W/SW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY. SOME MAUL POTENTIAL/ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LEAVE SOME
CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE SW. WENT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE ON LOWS
FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES/CLOUDS. AS UPPER LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS NEAR 100KTS+...THE SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TRACK E AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS E. DUE TO SPLIT FLOW/UL DIFFLUENCE/DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT/DEFORMATION ZONE...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LOOKS TO
BEGIN IN THE W AND SPREADING TO THE E FRIDAY. SOME THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE ALONG/S OF I-20 CORRIDOR DUE TO MAUL/ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DUE TO RAINFALL/CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA...WENT NEAR COOLER GUIDANCE WHICH CUT HIGHS AROUND 3 DEGREES OR
SO ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL LOOKS TO
REMAIN BETWEEN 12Z FRIDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY. 2-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

AS THE LOW TRACKS S OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO TRACK INTO THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES IN THE W. DUE TO RAINFALL/CLOUDS...WENT NEAR
EURO FOR LOWS WHICH WAS WARMER SATURDAY MORNING. RELEVANT PORTION OF
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

.LONG TERM...

AS WE MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE WEEKEND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE IN
CONTROL. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE EURO SHOWED BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM THEN
THE DRIER GFS. THE CANADIAN MODEL GENERALLY RESTRICTS THE RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE EURO WAS
SLOWER IN MOVING THE RAINS OUT ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING. SO
OPTED TO GO WITH THE SLOWER EURO SOLUTION IN MOVING THE RAIN OUT ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM DRIER WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE ARKLAMISS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MOST SITES...BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR CEILINGS
AND LIGHT RAIN AFTER 10-11Z AT GLH/GWO. THE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE N-NE BECOMING MORE ERLY OVERNIGHT. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       40  56  44  52 /  16  26  28  88
MERIDIAN      36  56  40  50 /   6  21  17  79
VICKSBURG     40  56  45  51 /  20  28  38  94
HATTIESBURG   36  63  45  55 /   5  10  19  61
NATCHEZ       42  58  50  55 /  18  28  48  97
GREENVILLE    40  49  42  49 /  39  25  19  84
GREENWOOD     39  52  41  48 /  25  25  15  80

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/17/15








000
FXUS64 KJAN 171650 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1050 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING SFC/UA ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC HIGH OVER THE MID/NRN PLAINS
EXTENDING INTO THE NRN ARKLAMISS WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS
WHILE UPPER RIDGING SITS OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
QUIET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALOFT FROM THE S/WV DEVELOPING OVER TX WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE W/SW TODAY. DUE TO SOME LIGHT MIXING AND TEMPS ALOFT
IN 12Z SOUNDINGS...BUMPED UP HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE
REGION. ONLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY GRIDS TO CURRENT
TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD FOR MOST SITES...BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN AFTER 08-09Z AT GLH/GWO. THE WINDS WILL
MAINLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE N-NE BECOMING MORE ERLY OVERNIGHT. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN SHIFTING EAST TODAY AS OUR BRIEF DRY PERIOD COMES TO AN END.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OUT OF
TX TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH
TX...ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE SE TX COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALLOW
ISENTROPIC RAINS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS MUCH OF E TX BY AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT AS WEAKENING SHORTWAVE PUSHES NE.
WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...ONLY LOOKING FOR LIGHT RAIN TO
MAKE IT TO THE GROUND AND ONLY OVER THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES. COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN OVERNIGHT AS LIFT
TEMPORARILY WANES. MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DIVE SE OUT OF CA
AS H3 100+ KNOT JET BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS.

AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ARRIVES IN TX THURSDAY NIGHT...
INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...JUST INLAND FROM THE
TX/LA COAST...WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID CYCLO/FRONTOGENESIS TO OCCUR.
TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL LEND TOWARD MORE UPRIGHT
ISENTROPIC SURFACES AND SUBSTANIALLY INCREASED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS BREAKING OUT OVER SW SECTIONS TOWARD
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING AREAS OF MAUL AND
ELEVATED CAPE OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THUS HAVE INCLUDED SOME
THUNDER POSSIBILITIES THERE. /26/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE AN INTENSE SHORT WAVE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE IN THE GENERAL PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTH FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
COUPLING OF UPPER JETS FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALONG
WITH SOME DECENT QG FORCING. THIS WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION FOR SOME HEAVY BENEFICIAL RAINS. THE EURO MODEL WAS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING THE SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE REGION ON EARLY
SATURDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL...NAM... AND ENSEMBLES WERE GENERALLY
ONBOARD WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. SO
OPTED TO GO WITH THAT SOLUTION PUSHING THE RAINS OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LATEST QPF GRAPHIC FROM HPC
SHOWS A 3.25 INCH MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO EXTREME WEST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE 00Z NAM MODEL WAS THE HIGHEST WITH THE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH A MAX OF 4.6 INCHES SOUTH OF TVR. SO THERE
WILL BE A LIMITED RISK OF FLOODING GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR. THE ONLY ISSUE AS FAR AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTH NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY...DEPENDING ON WHEN RAINS BEGIN IN THAT AREA. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE SOUTH DUE SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. SO WILL MENTION THE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICAST. AS WE MOVE INTO
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE IN CONTROL. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO
SHOWED BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM THEN THE DRIER GFS. THE
CANADIAN MODEL GENERALLY RESTRICTS THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH
DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE EURO WAS SLOWER IN MOVING THE RAINS
OUT ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING. SO OPTED TO GO WITH THE SLOWER
EURO SOLUTION IN MOVING THE RAIN OUT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE ARKLAMISS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       54  39  55  46 /   0  18  37  70
MERIDIAN      56  37  55  42 /   0   9  29  44
VICKSBURG     52  39  55  46 /   0  27  41  73
HATTIESBURG   59  39  62  47 /   0   6  13  29
NATCHEZ       56  42  59  50 /   0  21  40  73
GREENVILLE    48  39  50  42 /   2  56  36  38
GREENWOOD     49  38  53  41 /   0  34  36  34

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/15/26/17








000
FXUS64 KJAN 171650 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1050 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING SFC/UA ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC HIGH OVER THE MID/NRN PLAINS
EXTENDING INTO THE NRN ARKLAMISS WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS
WHILE UPPER RIDGING SITS OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
QUIET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALOFT FROM THE S/WV DEVELOPING OVER TX WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE W/SW TODAY. DUE TO SOME LIGHT MIXING AND TEMPS ALOFT
IN 12Z SOUNDINGS...BUMPED UP HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE
REGION. ONLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY GRIDS TO CURRENT
TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD FOR MOST SITES...BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN AFTER 08-09Z AT GLH/GWO. THE WINDS WILL
MAINLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE N-NE BECOMING MORE ERLY OVERNIGHT. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN SHIFTING EAST TODAY AS OUR BRIEF DRY PERIOD COMES TO AN END.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OUT OF
TX TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH
TX...ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE SE TX COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALLOW
ISENTROPIC RAINS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS MUCH OF E TX BY AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT AS WEAKENING SHORTWAVE PUSHES NE.
WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...ONLY LOOKING FOR LIGHT RAIN TO
MAKE IT TO THE GROUND AND ONLY OVER THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES. COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN OVERNIGHT AS LIFT
TEMPORARILY WANES. MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DIVE SE OUT OF CA
AS H3 100+ KNOT JET BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS.

AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ARRIVES IN TX THURSDAY NIGHT...
INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...JUST INLAND FROM THE
TX/LA COAST...WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID CYCLO/FRONTOGENESIS TO OCCUR.
TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL LEND TOWARD MORE UPRIGHT
ISENTROPIC SURFACES AND SUBSTANIALLY INCREASED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS BREAKING OUT OVER SW SECTIONS TOWARD
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING AREAS OF MAUL AND
ELEVATED CAPE OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THUS HAVE INCLUDED SOME
THUNDER POSSIBILITIES THERE. /26/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE AN INTENSE SHORT WAVE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE IN THE GENERAL PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTH FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
COUPLING OF UPPER JETS FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALONG
WITH SOME DECENT QG FORCING. THIS WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION FOR SOME HEAVY BENEFICIAL RAINS. THE EURO MODEL WAS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING THE SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE REGION ON EARLY
SATURDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL...NAM... AND ENSEMBLES WERE GENERALLY
ONBOARD WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. SO
OPTED TO GO WITH THAT SOLUTION PUSHING THE RAINS OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LATEST QPF GRAPHIC FROM HPC
SHOWS A 3.25 INCH MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO EXTREME WEST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE 00Z NAM MODEL WAS THE HIGHEST WITH THE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH A MAX OF 4.6 INCHES SOUTH OF TVR. SO THERE
WILL BE A LIMITED RISK OF FLOODING GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR. THE ONLY ISSUE AS FAR AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTH NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY...DEPENDING ON WHEN RAINS BEGIN IN THAT AREA. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE SOUTH DUE SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. SO WILL MENTION THE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICAST. AS WE MOVE INTO
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE IN CONTROL. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO
SHOWED BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM THEN THE DRIER GFS. THE
CANADIAN MODEL GENERALLY RESTRICTS THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH
DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE EURO WAS SLOWER IN MOVING THE RAINS
OUT ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING. SO OPTED TO GO WITH THE SLOWER
EURO SOLUTION IN MOVING THE RAIN OUT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE ARKLAMISS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       54  39  55  46 /   0  18  37  70
MERIDIAN      56  37  55  42 /   0   9  29  44
VICKSBURG     52  39  55  46 /   0  27  41  73
HATTIESBURG   59  39  62  47 /   0   6  13  29
NATCHEZ       56  42  59  50 /   0  21  40  73
GREENVILLE    48  39  50  42 /   2  56  36  38
GREENWOOD     49  38  53  41 /   0  34  36  34

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/15/26/17







000
FXUS64 KJAN 170908
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
308 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN SHIFTING EAST TODAY AS OUR BRIEF DRY PERIOD COMES TO AN END.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OUT OF
TX TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH
TX...ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE SE TX COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALLOW
ISENTROPIC RAINS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS MUCH OF E TX BY AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT AS WEAKENING SHORTWAVE PUSHES NE.
WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...ONLY LOOKING FOR LIGHT RAIN TO
MAKE IT TO THE GROUND AND ONLY OVER THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES. COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN OVERNIGHT AS LIFT
TEMPORARILY WANES. MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DIVE SE OUT OF CA
AS H3 100+ KNOT JET BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS.

AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ARRIVES IN TX THURSDAY NIGHT...
INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...JUST INLAND FROM THE
TX/LA COAST...WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID CYCLO/FRONTOGENESIS TO OCCUR.
TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL LEND TOWARD MORE UPRIGHT
ISENTROPIC SURFACES AND SUBSTANIALLY INCREASED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS BREAKING OUT OVER SW SECTIONS TOWARD
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING AREAS OF MAUL AND
ELEVATED CAPE OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THUS HAVE INCLUDED SOME
THUNDER POSSIBILITIES THERE./26/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE AN INTENSE SHORT WAVE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE IN THE GENERAL PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTH FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
COUPLING OF UPPER JETS FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALONG
WITH SOME DECENT QG FORCING. THIS WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION FOR SOME HEAVY BENEFICIAL RAINS. THE EURO MODEL WAS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING THE SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE REGION ON EARLY
SATURDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL...NAM... AND ENSEMBLES WERE GENERALLY
ONBOARD WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. SO
OPTED TO GO WITH THAT SOLUTION PUSHING THE RAINS OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LATEST QPF GRAPHIC FROM HPC
SHOWS A 3.25 INCH MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO EXTREME WEST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE 00Z NAM MODEL WAS THE HIGHEST WITH THE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH A MAX OF 4.6 INCHES SOUTH OF TVR. SO THERE
WILL BE A LIMITED RISK OF FLOODING GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR. THE ONLY ISSUE AS FAR AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTH NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY...DEPENDING ON WHEN RAINS BEGIN IN THAT AREA. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE SOUTH DUE SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. SO WILL MENTION THE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICAST. AS WE MOVE INTO
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE IN CONTROL. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO
SHOWED BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM THEN THE DRIER GFS. THE
CANADIAN MODEL GENERALLY RESTRICTS THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH
DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE EURO WAS SLOWER IN MOVING THE RAINS
OUT ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING. SO OPTED TO GO WITH THE SLOWER
EURO SOLUTION IN MOVING THE RAIN OUT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE ARKLAMISS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD./17/


&&

.AVIATION...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AND
DESCEND INTO THE MID LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. FLIGHT RULES WILL REMAIN
VISUAL THOUGH 18/06Z. AFFTER THEN...MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT RAIN
AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER GLH AND GWO. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       54  39  55  46 /   0  18  37  70
MERIDIAN      56  37  55  42 /   0   9  29  44
VICKSBURG     52  39  55  46 /   0  27  41  73
HATTIESBURG   59  39  62  47 /   0   6  13  29
NATCHEZ       56  42  59  50 /   0  21  40  73
GREENVILLE    48  39  50  42 /   2  56  36  38
GREENWOOD     49  38  53  41 /   0  34  36  34

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 170908
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
308 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN SHIFTING EAST TODAY AS OUR BRIEF DRY PERIOD COMES TO AN END.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OUT OF
TX TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH
TX...ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE SE TX COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALLOW
ISENTROPIC RAINS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS MUCH OF E TX BY AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT AS WEAKENING SHORTWAVE PUSHES NE.
WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...ONLY LOOKING FOR LIGHT RAIN TO
MAKE IT TO THE GROUND AND ONLY OVER THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES. COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN OVERNIGHT AS LIFT
TEMPORARILY WANES. MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DIVE SE OUT OF CA
AS H3 100+ KNOT JET BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS.

AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ARRIVES IN TX THURSDAY NIGHT...
INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...JUST INLAND FROM THE
TX/LA COAST...WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID CYCLO/FRONTOGENESIS TO OCCUR.
TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL LEND TOWARD MORE UPRIGHT
ISENTROPIC SURFACES AND SUBSTANIALLY INCREASED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS BREAKING OUT OVER SW SECTIONS TOWARD
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING AREAS OF MAUL AND
ELEVATED CAPE OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THUS HAVE INCLUDED SOME
THUNDER POSSIBILITIES THERE./26/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE AN INTENSE SHORT WAVE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE IN THE GENERAL PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTH FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
COUPLING OF UPPER JETS FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALONG
WITH SOME DECENT QG FORCING. THIS WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION FOR SOME HEAVY BENEFICIAL RAINS. THE EURO MODEL WAS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING THE SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE REGION ON EARLY
SATURDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL...NAM... AND ENSEMBLES WERE GENERALLY
ONBOARD WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. SO
OPTED TO GO WITH THAT SOLUTION PUSHING THE RAINS OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LATEST QPF GRAPHIC FROM HPC
SHOWS A 3.25 INCH MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO EXTREME WEST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE 00Z NAM MODEL WAS THE HIGHEST WITH THE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH A MAX OF 4.6 INCHES SOUTH OF TVR. SO THERE
WILL BE A LIMITED RISK OF FLOODING GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR. THE ONLY ISSUE AS FAR AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTH NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY...DEPENDING ON WHEN RAINS BEGIN IN THAT AREA. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE SOUTH DUE SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. SO WILL MENTION THE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICAST. AS WE MOVE INTO
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE IN CONTROL. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO
SHOWED BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM THEN THE DRIER GFS. THE
CANADIAN MODEL GENERALLY RESTRICTS THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH
DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE EURO WAS SLOWER IN MOVING THE RAINS
OUT ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING. SO OPTED TO GO WITH THE SLOWER
EURO SOLUTION IN MOVING THE RAIN OUT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE ARKLAMISS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD./17/


&&

.AVIATION...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AND
DESCEND INTO THE MID LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. FLIGHT RULES WILL REMAIN
VISUAL THOUGH 18/06Z. AFFTER THEN...MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT RAIN
AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER GLH AND GWO. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       54  39  55  46 /   0  18  37  70
MERIDIAN      56  37  55  42 /   0   9  29  44
VICKSBURG     52  39  55  46 /   0  27  41  73
HATTIESBURG   59  39  62  47 /   0   6  13  29
NATCHEZ       56  42  59  50 /   0  21  40  73
GREENVILLE    48  39  50  42 /   2  56  36  38
GREENWOOD     49  38  53  41 /   0  34  36  34

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 170908
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
308 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN SHIFTING EAST TODAY AS OUR BRIEF DRY PERIOD COMES TO AN END.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OUT OF
TX TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH
TX...ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE SE TX COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALLOW
ISENTROPIC RAINS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS MUCH OF E TX BY AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT AS WEAKENING SHORTWAVE PUSHES NE.
WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...ONLY LOOKING FOR LIGHT RAIN TO
MAKE IT TO THE GROUND AND ONLY OVER THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES. COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN OVERNIGHT AS LIFT
TEMPORARILY WANES. MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DIVE SE OUT OF CA
AS H3 100+ KNOT JET BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS.

AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ARRIVES IN TX THURSDAY NIGHT...
INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...JUST INLAND FROM THE
TX/LA COAST...WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID CYCLO/FRONTOGENESIS TO OCCUR.
TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL LEND TOWARD MORE UPRIGHT
ISENTROPIC SURFACES AND SUBSTANIALLY INCREASED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS BREAKING OUT OVER SW SECTIONS TOWARD
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING AREAS OF MAUL AND
ELEVATED CAPE OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THUS HAVE INCLUDED SOME
THUNDER POSSIBILITIES THERE./26/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE AN INTENSE SHORT WAVE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE IN THE GENERAL PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTH FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
COUPLING OF UPPER JETS FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALONG
WITH SOME DECENT QG FORCING. THIS WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION FOR SOME HEAVY BENEFICIAL RAINS. THE EURO MODEL WAS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING THE SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE REGION ON EARLY
SATURDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL...NAM... AND ENSEMBLES WERE GENERALLY
ONBOARD WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. SO
OPTED TO GO WITH THAT SOLUTION PUSHING THE RAINS OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LATEST QPF GRAPHIC FROM HPC
SHOWS A 3.25 INCH MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO EXTREME WEST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE 00Z NAM MODEL WAS THE HIGHEST WITH THE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH A MAX OF 4.6 INCHES SOUTH OF TVR. SO THERE
WILL BE A LIMITED RISK OF FLOODING GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR. THE ONLY ISSUE AS FAR AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTH NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY...DEPENDING ON WHEN RAINS BEGIN IN THAT AREA. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE SOUTH DUE SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. SO WILL MENTION THE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICAST. AS WE MOVE INTO
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE IN CONTROL. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO
SHOWED BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM THEN THE DRIER GFS. THE
CANADIAN MODEL GENERALLY RESTRICTS THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH
DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE EURO WAS SLOWER IN MOVING THE RAINS
OUT ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING. SO OPTED TO GO WITH THE SLOWER
EURO SOLUTION IN MOVING THE RAIN OUT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE ARKLAMISS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD./17/


&&

.AVIATION...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AND
DESCEND INTO THE MID LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. FLIGHT RULES WILL REMAIN
VISUAL THOUGH 18/06Z. AFFTER THEN...MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT RAIN
AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER GLH AND GWO. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       54  39  55  46 /   0  18  37  70
MERIDIAN      56  37  55  42 /   0   9  29  44
VICKSBURG     52  39  55  46 /   0  27  41  73
HATTIESBURG   59  39  62  47 /   0   6  13  29
NATCHEZ       56  42  59  50 /   0  21  40  73
GREENVILLE    48  39  50  42 /   2  56  36  38
GREENWOOD     49  38  53  41 /   0  34  36  34

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 170908
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
308 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN SHIFTING EAST TODAY AS OUR BRIEF DRY PERIOD COMES TO AN END.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OUT OF
TX TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH
TX...ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE SE TX COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ALLOW
ISENTROPIC RAINS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS MUCH OF E TX BY AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT AS WEAKENING SHORTWAVE PUSHES NE.
WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...ONLY LOOKING FOR LIGHT RAIN TO
MAKE IT TO THE GROUND AND ONLY OVER THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES. COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN OVERNIGHT AS LIFT
TEMPORARILY WANES. MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DIVE SE OUT OF CA
AS H3 100+ KNOT JET BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS.

AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ARRIVES IN TX THURSDAY NIGHT...
INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...JUST INLAND FROM THE
TX/LA COAST...WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID CYCLO/FRONTOGENESIS TO OCCUR.
TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL LEND TOWARD MORE UPRIGHT
ISENTROPIC SURFACES AND SUBSTANIALLY INCREASED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS BREAKING OUT OVER SW SECTIONS TOWARD
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING AREAS OF MAUL AND
ELEVATED CAPE OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THUS HAVE INCLUDED SOME
THUNDER POSSIBILITIES THERE./26/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE AN INTENSE SHORT WAVE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE IN THE GENERAL PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTH FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
COUPLING OF UPPER JETS FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALONG
WITH SOME DECENT QG FORCING. THIS WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION FOR SOME HEAVY BENEFICIAL RAINS. THE EURO MODEL WAS A
LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING THE SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE REGION ON EARLY
SATURDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL...NAM... AND ENSEMBLES WERE GENERALLY
ONBOARD WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. SO
OPTED TO GO WITH THAT SOLUTION PUSHING THE RAINS OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LATEST QPF GRAPHIC FROM HPC
SHOWS A 3.25 INCH MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO EXTREME WEST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE 00Z NAM MODEL WAS THE HIGHEST WITH THE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH A MAX OF 4.6 INCHES SOUTH OF TVR. SO THERE
WILL BE A LIMITED RISK OF FLOODING GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR. THE ONLY ISSUE AS FAR AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTH NEAR THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY...DEPENDING ON WHEN RAINS BEGIN IN THAT AREA. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE SOUTH DUE SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. SO WILL MENTION THE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICAST. AS WE MOVE INTO
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE IN CONTROL. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO
SHOWED BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM THEN THE DRIER GFS. THE
CANADIAN MODEL GENERALLY RESTRICTS THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH
DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE EURO WAS SLOWER IN MOVING THE RAINS
OUT ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING. SO OPTED TO GO WITH THE SLOWER
EURO SOLUTION IN MOVING THE RAIN OUT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE ARKLAMISS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD./17/


&&

.AVIATION...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AND
DESCEND INTO THE MID LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. FLIGHT RULES WILL REMAIN
VISUAL THOUGH 18/06Z. AFFTER THEN...MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT RAIN
AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER GLH AND GWO. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       54  39  55  46 /   0  18  37  70
MERIDIAN      56  37  55  42 /   0   9  29  44
VICKSBURG     52  39  55  46 /   0  27  41  73
HATTIESBURG   59  39  62  47 /   0   6  13  29
NATCHEZ       56  42  59  50 /   0  21  40  73
GREENVILLE    48  39  50  42 /   2  56  36  38
GREENWOOD     49  38  53  41 /   0  34  36  34

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 170302 CCA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
852 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TODAY`S WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST HAVE PRETTY
MUCH QUIETED DOWN NOW AND SO TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
40S CURRENTLY SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL TO THE MID TO LOW 30S BY DAWN
TOMORROW. ONLY NEEDED TO TWEAK THE HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE UPDATE
TONIGHT. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
QUIET TAF PERIOD AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LOOK FOR AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER ON WED. /EC/CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE RAIN EVENT
FRI-FRI NIGHT. OUTSIDE THAT...MAINLY A CLOUD/TEMP FORECAST WITH AN
OVERALL COOL REGIME IN PLACE.

DECENT CAA TODAY HAS KEPT CONDITIONS A BIT BELOW AVG READINGS WITH
LOW/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE CWA. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH AT SUNSET
WITH THE SFC HIGH SETTING UP TO OUR NORTH. A SOMEWHAT OK RAD COOLING
NIGHT LOOKS ON TAP WITH ONLY A THIN VEIL OF CIRRUS EXPECTED AND LOWS
FALLING TO 30-35 DEGREES. FROST WILL BE LIKELY.

FOR WED-THU...THE SFC HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED TO OUR NE WITH THE
MAIN BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR S ACROSS THE N GULF.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE SW AND HELP
SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS OUR WAY. LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH TIME FROM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A
COUPLE S/WV DROP INTO THE SW CONUS. THE RESPONSE ON OUR END WILL BE
RAPIDLY INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WED NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING
INTO THU. WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS...THE TEMP RANGE WILL BE
SMALLER...WITH COOLER OVERALL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WHILE DECENT
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR WEST WED NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THE PREV POP FORECAST SHOWED THIS
AND NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THIS NEW PACKAGE.

A MORE POTENT WAVE WILL EXIT THE SW LATER THU AND REALLY HELP TO
INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG WITH STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING. A NOTICEABLE UP SWING IN PRECIP COVERAGE WILL TAKE PLACE TO
OUR W/SW LATER THU NIGHT AND QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE CWA EARLY FRI.
LOOK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FRI AND INTO
FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH MUCH MORE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. DUE TO THE
STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS...SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED WHICH
WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE THE RAINFALL RATES. THE OVERALL AXIS OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINS IS STILL HARD TO NAIL DOWN...BUT THE I-20 OR NATCHEZ
TRACE CORRIDOR SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. MUCH OF THIS HINGES ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT THE RECENT MODEL TRENDS ARE BETTER
ALIGNED WITH A MORE SOUTHERN SFC LOW TRACK...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
THE HIGHER PRECIP AXIS NEAR THE CORRIDOR I DESCRIBED. AT THIS
TIME...WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE ON THE RAINFALL TOTALS AND MENTION
1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE. AN INCH OR TWO MORE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AND WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE DURATION AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF WHAT
OCCURS. WE STILL HAVE TIME TO REFINE THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. FOR
NOW...HAVE ADDED A GRAPHIC TO ILLUSTRATE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT
THAT IS EXPECTED WITH 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RAINFALL LOOKS TO DEPART EARLY SAT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
PRECIP FREE. HOWEVER...SAT WILL BE CLOUDY AND COLD WITH TEMPS
POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO GET TO 50. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO SHAKE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AND MAY LINGER LONGER INTO SUN THAN
FORECAST. THE MAIN IMPACT TO THE FORECAST WILL BE A SMALLER DIURNAL
RANGE AND I HAVE WARMED LOWS SAT NGT TO REFLECT THIS. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       33  57  39  56 /   0   0  11  35
MERIDIAN      31  57  36  56 /   0   0   7  21
VICKSBURG     31  54  40  55 /   0   0  25  40
HATTIESBURG   33  62  39  64 /   0   0   6  17
NATCHEZ       33  57  42  60 /   0   0  11  37
GREENVILLE    33  49  40  50 /   0   2  56  38
GREENWOOD     31  52  39  51 /   0   0  36  33

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KJAN 170302 CCA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
852 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TODAY`S WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST HAVE PRETTY
MUCH QUIETED DOWN NOW AND SO TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
40S CURRENTLY SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL TO THE MID TO LOW 30S BY DAWN
TOMORROW. ONLY NEEDED TO TWEAK THE HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE UPDATE
TONIGHT. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
QUIET TAF PERIOD AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LOOK FOR AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER ON WED. /EC/CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE RAIN EVENT
FRI-FRI NIGHT. OUTSIDE THAT...MAINLY A CLOUD/TEMP FORECAST WITH AN
OVERALL COOL REGIME IN PLACE.

DECENT CAA TODAY HAS KEPT CONDITIONS A BIT BELOW AVG READINGS WITH
LOW/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE CWA. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH AT SUNSET
WITH THE SFC HIGH SETTING UP TO OUR NORTH. A SOMEWHAT OK RAD COOLING
NIGHT LOOKS ON TAP WITH ONLY A THIN VEIL OF CIRRUS EXPECTED AND LOWS
FALLING TO 30-35 DEGREES. FROST WILL BE LIKELY.

FOR WED-THU...THE SFC HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED TO OUR NE WITH THE
MAIN BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR S ACROSS THE N GULF.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE SW AND HELP
SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS OUR WAY. LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH TIME FROM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A
COUPLE S/WV DROP INTO THE SW CONUS. THE RESPONSE ON OUR END WILL BE
RAPIDLY INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WED NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING
INTO THU. WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS...THE TEMP RANGE WILL BE
SMALLER...WITH COOLER OVERALL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WHILE DECENT
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR WEST WED NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THE PREV POP FORECAST SHOWED THIS
AND NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THIS NEW PACKAGE.

A MORE POTENT WAVE WILL EXIT THE SW LATER THU AND REALLY HELP TO
INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG WITH STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING. A NOTICEABLE UP SWING IN PRECIP COVERAGE WILL TAKE PLACE TO
OUR W/SW LATER THU NIGHT AND QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE CWA EARLY FRI.
LOOK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FRI AND INTO
FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH MUCH MORE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. DUE TO THE
STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS...SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED WHICH
WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE THE RAINFALL RATES. THE OVERALL AXIS OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINS IS STILL HARD TO NAIL DOWN...BUT THE I-20 OR NATCHEZ
TRACE CORRIDOR SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. MUCH OF THIS HINGES ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT THE RECENT MODEL TRENDS ARE BETTER
ALIGNED WITH A MORE SOUTHERN SFC LOW TRACK...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
THE HIGHER PRECIP AXIS NEAR THE CORRIDOR I DESCRIBED. AT THIS
TIME...WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE ON THE RAINFALL TOTALS AND MENTION
1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE. AN INCH OR TWO MORE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AND WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE DURATION AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF WHAT
OCCURS. WE STILL HAVE TIME TO REFINE THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. FOR
NOW...HAVE ADDED A GRAPHIC TO ILLUSTRATE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT
THAT IS EXPECTED WITH 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RAINFALL LOOKS TO DEPART EARLY SAT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
PRECIP FREE. HOWEVER...SAT WILL BE CLOUDY AND COLD WITH TEMPS
POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO GET TO 50. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO SHAKE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AND MAY LINGER LONGER INTO SUN THAN
FORECAST. THE MAIN IMPACT TO THE FORECAST WILL BE A SMALLER DIURNAL
RANGE AND I HAVE WARMED LOWS SAT NGT TO REFLECT THIS. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       33  57  39  56 /   0   0  11  35
MERIDIAN      31  57  36  56 /   0   0   7  21
VICKSBURG     31  54  40  55 /   0   0  25  40
HATTIESBURG   33  62  39  64 /   0   0   6  17
NATCHEZ       33  57  42  60 /   0   0  11  37
GREENVILLE    33  49  40  50 /   0   2  56  38
GREENWOOD     31  52  39  51 /   0   0  36  33

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KJAN 170252 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
852 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TODAY`S WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST HAVE PRETTY
MUCH QUIETED DOWN NOW AND SO TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
40S CURRENTLY SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL TO THE MID TO LOW 30S BY DAWN
TOMORROW. ONLY NEEDED TO TWEAK THE HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE UPDATE
TONIGHT. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
QUIET TAF PERIOD AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LOOK FOR AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER ON WED. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE RAIN EVENT
FRI-FRI NIGHT. OUTSIDE THAT...MAINLY A CLOUD/TEMP FORECAST WITH AN
OVERALL COOL REGIME IN PLACE.

DECENT CAA TODAY HAS KEPT CONDITIONS A BIT BELOW AVG READINGS WITH
LOW/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE CWA. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH AT SUNSET
WITH THE SFC HIGH SETTING UP TO OUR NORTH. A SOMEWHAT OK RAD COOLING
NIGHT LOOKS ON TAP WITH ONLY A THIN VEIL OF CIRRUS EXPECTED AND LOWS
FALLING TO 30-35 DEGREES. FROST WILL BE LIKELY.

FOR WED-THU...THE SFC HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED TO OUR NE WITH THE
MAIN BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR S ACROSS THE N GULF.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE SW AND HELP
SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS OUR WAY. LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH TIME FROM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A
COUPLE S/WV DROP INTO THE SW CONUS. THE RESPONSE ON OUR END WILL BE
RAPIDLY INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WED NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING
INTO THU. WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS...THE TEMP RANGE WILL BE
SMALLER...WITH COOLER OVERALL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WHILE DECENT
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR WEST WED NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THE PREV POP FORECAST SHOWED THIS
AND NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THIS NEW PACKAGE.

A MORE POTENT WAVE WILL EXIT THE SW LATER THU AND REALLY HELP TO
INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG WITH STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING. A NOTICEABLE UP SWING IN PRECIP COVERAGE WILL TAKE PLACE TO
OUR W/SW LATER THU NIGHT AND QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE CWA EARLY FRI.
LOOK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FRI AND INTO
FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH MUCH MORE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. DUE TO THE
STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS...SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED WHICH
WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE THE RAINFALL RATES. THE OVERALL AXIS OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINS IS STILL HARD TO NAIL DOWN...BUT THE I-20 OR NATCHEZ
TRACE CORRIDOR SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. MUCH OF THIS HINGES ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT THE RECENT MODEL TRENDS ARE BETTER
ALIGNED WITH A MORE SOUTHERN SFC LOW TRACK...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
THE HIGHER PRECIP AXIS NEAR THE CORRIDOR I DESCRIBED. AT THIS
TIME...WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE ON THE RAINFALL TOTALS AND MENTION
1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE. AN INCH OR TWO MORE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AND WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE DURATION AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF WHAT
OCCURS. WE STILL HAVE TIME TO REFINE THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. FOR
NOW...HAVE ADDED A GRAPHIC TO ILLUSTRATE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT
THAT IS EXPECTED WITH 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RAINFALL LOOKS TO DEPART EARLY SAT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
PRECIP FREE. HOWEVER...SAT WILL BE CLOUDY AND COLD WITH TEMPS
POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO GET TO 50. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO SHAKE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AND MAY LINGER LONGER INTO SUN THAN
FORECAST. THE MAIN IMPACT TO THE FORECAST WILL BE A SMALLER DIURNAL
RANGE AND I HAVE WARMED LOWS SAT NGT TO REFLECT THIS. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       33  57  39  56 /   0   0  11  35
MERIDIAN      31  57  36  56 /   0   0   7  21
VICKSBURG     31  54  40  55 /   0   0  25  40
HATTIESBURG   33  62  39  64 /   0   0   6  17
NATCHEZ       33  57  42  60 /   0   0  11  37
GREENVILLE    33  49  40  50 /   0   2  56  38
GREENWOOD     31  52  39  51 /   0   0  36  33

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 170252 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
852 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. TODAY`S WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST HAVE PRETTY
MUCH QUIETED DOWN NOW AND SO TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
40S CURRENTLY SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL TO THE MID TO LOW 30S BY DAWN
TOMORROW. ONLY NEEDED TO TWEAK THE HOURLY TEMPS FOR THE UPDATE
TONIGHT. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
QUIET TAF PERIOD AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LOOK FOR AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER ON WED. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE RAIN EVENT
FRI-FRI NIGHT. OUTSIDE THAT...MAINLY A CLOUD/TEMP FORECAST WITH AN
OVERALL COOL REGIME IN PLACE.

DECENT CAA TODAY HAS KEPT CONDITIONS A BIT BELOW AVG READINGS WITH
LOW/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE CWA. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH AT SUNSET
WITH THE SFC HIGH SETTING UP TO OUR NORTH. A SOMEWHAT OK RAD COOLING
NIGHT LOOKS ON TAP WITH ONLY A THIN VEIL OF CIRRUS EXPECTED AND LOWS
FALLING TO 30-35 DEGREES. FROST WILL BE LIKELY.

FOR WED-THU...THE SFC HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED TO OUR NE WITH THE
MAIN BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR S ACROSS THE N GULF.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE SW AND HELP
SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS OUR WAY. LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH TIME FROM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A
COUPLE S/WV DROP INTO THE SW CONUS. THE RESPONSE ON OUR END WILL BE
RAPIDLY INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WED NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING
INTO THU. WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS...THE TEMP RANGE WILL BE
SMALLER...WITH COOLER OVERALL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WHILE DECENT
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR WEST WED NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THE PREV POP FORECAST SHOWED THIS
AND NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THIS NEW PACKAGE.

A MORE POTENT WAVE WILL EXIT THE SW LATER THU AND REALLY HELP TO
INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG WITH STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING. A NOTICEABLE UP SWING IN PRECIP COVERAGE WILL TAKE PLACE TO
OUR W/SW LATER THU NIGHT AND QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE CWA EARLY FRI.
LOOK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FRI AND INTO
FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH MUCH MORE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. DUE TO THE
STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS...SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED WHICH
WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE THE RAINFALL RATES. THE OVERALL AXIS OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINS IS STILL HARD TO NAIL DOWN...BUT THE I-20 OR NATCHEZ
TRACE CORRIDOR SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. MUCH OF THIS HINGES ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT THE RECENT MODEL TRENDS ARE BETTER
ALIGNED WITH A MORE SOUTHERN SFC LOW TRACK...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
THE HIGHER PRECIP AXIS NEAR THE CORRIDOR I DESCRIBED. AT THIS
TIME...WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE ON THE RAINFALL TOTALS AND MENTION
1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE. AN INCH OR TWO MORE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AND WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE DURATION AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF WHAT
OCCURS. WE STILL HAVE TIME TO REFINE THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. FOR
NOW...HAVE ADDED A GRAPHIC TO ILLUSTRATE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT
THAT IS EXPECTED WITH 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RAINFALL LOOKS TO DEPART EARLY SAT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
PRECIP FREE. HOWEVER...SAT WILL BE CLOUDY AND COLD WITH TEMPS
POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO GET TO 50. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO SHAKE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AND MAY LINGER LONGER INTO SUN THAN
FORECAST. THE MAIN IMPACT TO THE FORECAST WILL BE A SMALLER DIURNAL
RANGE AND I HAVE WARMED LOWS SAT NGT TO REFLECT THIS. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       33  57  39  56 /   0   0  11  35
MERIDIAN      31  57  36  56 /   0   0   7  21
VICKSBURG     31  54  40  55 /   0   0  25  40
HATTIESBURG   33  62  39  64 /   0   0   6  17
NATCHEZ       33  57  42  60 /   0   0  11  37
GREENVILLE    33  49  40  50 /   0   2  56  38
GREENWOOD     31  52  39  51 /   0   0  36  33

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 162155
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
355 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE RAIN EVENT
FRI-FRI NIGHT. OUTSIDE THAT...MAINLY A CLOUD/TEMP FORECAST WITH AN
OVERALL COOL REGIME IN PLACE.

DECENT CAA TODAY HAS KEPT CONDITIONS A BIT BELOW AVG READINGS WITH
LOW/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE CWA. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH AT SUNSET
WITH THE SFC HIGH SETTING UP TO OUR NORTH. A SOMEWHAT OK RAD COOLING
NIGHT LOOKS ON TAP WITH ONLY A THIN VEIL OF CIRRUS EXPECTED AND LOWS
FALLING TO 30-35 DEGREES. FROST WILL BE LIKELY.

FOR WED-THU...THE SFC HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED TO OUR NE WITH THE
MAIN BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY STALLING TO OUR S ACROSS THE N GULF.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE SW AND HELP
SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS OUR WAY. LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND
LOWER WITH TIME FROM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A
COUPLE S/WV DROP INTO THE SW CONUS. THE RESPONSE ON OUR END WILL BE
RAPIDLY INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WED NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING
INTO THU. WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS...THE TEMP RANGE WILL BE
SMALLER...WITH COOLER OVERALL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WHILE DECENT
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR WEST WED NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. THE PREV POP FORECAST SHOWED THIS
AND NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THIS NEW PACKAGE.

A MORE POTENT WAVE WILL EXIT THE SW LATER THU AND REALLY HELP TO
INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG WITH STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING. A NOTICEABLE UP SWING IN PRECIP COVERAGE WILL TAKE PLACE TO
OUR W/SW LATER THU NIGHT AND QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE CWA EARLY FRI.
LOOK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FRI AND INTO
FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH MUCH MORE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. DUE TO THE
STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS...SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED WHICH
WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE THE RAINFALL RATES. THE OVERALL AXIS OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINS IS STILL HARD TO NAIL DOWN...BUT THE I-20 OR NATCHEZ
TRACE CORRIDOR SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. MUCH OF THIS HINGES ON THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...BUT THE RECENT MODEL TRENDS ARE BETTER
ALIGNED WITH A MORE SOUTHERN SFC LOW TRACK...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
THE HIGHER PRECIP AXIS NEAR THE CORRIDOR I DESCRIBED. AT THIS
TIME...WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE ON THE RAINFALL TOTALS AND MENTION
1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE. AN INCH OR TWO MORE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
AND WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE DURATION AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF WHAT
OCCURS. WE STILL HAVE TIME TO REFINE THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. FOR
NOW...HAVE ADDED A GRAPHIC TO ILLUSTRATE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT
THAT IS EXPECTED WITH 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RAINFALL LOOKS TO DEPART EARLY SAT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
PRECIP FREE. HOWEVER...SAT WILL BE CLOUDY AND COLD WITH TEMPS
POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO GET TO 50. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO SHAKE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AND MAY LINGER LONGER INTO SUN THAN
FORECAST. THE MAIN IMPACT TO THE FORECAST WILL BE A SMALLER DIURNAL
RANGE AND I HAVE WARMED LOWS SAT NGT TO REFLECT THIS. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...QUIET TAF PERIOD AS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LOOK
FOR AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER ON WED. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       33  57  39  56 /   0   0  11  35
MERIDIAN      31  57  36  56 /   0   0   7  21
VICKSBURG     31  54  40  55 /   0   0  25  40
HATTIESBURG   33  62  39  64 /   0   0   6  17
NATCHEZ       33  57  42  60 /   0   0  11  37
GREENVILLE    33  49  40  50 /   0   2  56  38
GREENWOOD     31  52  39  51 /   0   0  36  33

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 161548 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
948 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...COOL CONDITIONS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA AS DECENT CAA
CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT. GOING FORECAST IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS.
DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE...THE CAA LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP
MAX TEMPS DOWN A TAD...AS A RESULT I HAVE BUMPED DOWN SOME OF THE
AREA TO REFLECT THAT. LASTLY...INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO REFLECT THE
BETTER GUST POTENTIAL. DECENT GUSTS LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THIS INITIAL
MIXING TIME (9AM - 2PM) WITH WINDS DIMINISHING FROM 2PM ONWARD. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...QUIET TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
/CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS
JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA AS OF THIS WRITING. THE DAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT FOR MID DECEMBER...ALBEIT A LITTLE
BREEZY. MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND
GUSTS NEAR 20. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET AS DRIER
AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
COMMENCE. EXPECTING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS OUR FAIR WEATHER MAKER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO AL. IN THE MID
LEVELS...FLAT RIDGE WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST ALLOWING SW FLOW REGIME TO
RECOMMENCE. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVER SE
TX...ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL GET UNDERWAY AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR NEAR
THE TX COAST IS LIFTED UP/OVER THE COOLER AIR INLAND. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OUT OF W TX SHOULD SERVE TO INCREASE LOWER LEVEL
WINDS ENOUGH FOR WARM ADVECTION RAINS TO BREAK OUT DURING THE EVENING
OVER AR/LA AND SPREAD NE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER OVER
THE MS DELTA REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CONDENSTAIONAL
WARMING AROUND H7 ALLOWS FOR THE GENERATION OF AROUND 100 J/KG OF
CAPE BETWEEN H7 AND H5 AND SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES IN THIS LAYER. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING THUNDER AT THE
MOMENT THOUGH AS NAM/ECMWF WERE NOT AS ROBUST WITH THIS SCENARIO./26/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AT THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN
THE ZONAL FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SOME
RAIN ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WILL CAUSE THE MEAN FLOW TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
BETTER RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION AS WE PUSH INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY THE MODELS HAVE
DECIDED TO CONVERGE THEIR SOLUTIONS ON THE MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME
BENEFICIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE REGION AS THE UPPER JETS BECOME
COUPLED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
AS WELL AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH GOOD ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODELS ARE PAINTING ONE TO
LOCALLY THREE PLUS INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON IT IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ARKLAMISS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
EURO AND GFS SEEM TO BE IN A GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
TRACK...WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL HUGS THE COAST LINE INTO FLORIDA. SO
WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE RAINS WILL END ON SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AS WE GO INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE
MODELS SEEM TO DIVERGE ONCE AGAIN ON SOLUTIONS. THE GFS GENERALLY
KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS...WHILE THE EURO PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THE CANADIAN BRINGS SOME RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH. SO OPTED TO
GO TOWARD THE BLEND OF THE WETTER EURO AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       55  32  57  41 /   0   0   0  14
MERIDIAN      57  30  59  38 /   0   0   0  10
VICKSBURG     55  32  55  41 /   0   0   0  34
HATTIESBURG   60  34  60  41 /   0   0   0   9
NATCHEZ       56  34  59  43 /   0   0   0  13
GREENVILLE    53  32  51  40 /   0   0   2  56
GREENWOOD     52  31  54  39 /   0   0   0  48

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/26/17






000
FXUS64 KJAN 161548 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
948 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...COOL CONDITIONS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA AS DECENT CAA
CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT. GOING FORECAST IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS.
DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE...THE CAA LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP
MAX TEMPS DOWN A TAD...AS A RESULT I HAVE BUMPED DOWN SOME OF THE
AREA TO REFLECT THAT. LASTLY...INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO REFLECT THE
BETTER GUST POTENTIAL. DECENT GUSTS LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THIS INITIAL
MIXING TIME (9AM - 2PM) WITH WINDS DIMINISHING FROM 2PM ONWARD. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...QUIET TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
/CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS
JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA AS OF THIS WRITING. THE DAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT FOR MID DECEMBER...ALBEIT A LITTLE
BREEZY. MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND
GUSTS NEAR 20. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET AS DRIER
AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
COMMENCE. EXPECTING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS OUR FAIR WEATHER MAKER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO AL. IN THE MID
LEVELS...FLAT RIDGE WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST ALLOWING SW FLOW REGIME TO
RECOMMENCE. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVER SE
TX...ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL GET UNDERWAY AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR NEAR
THE TX COAST IS LIFTED UP/OVER THE COOLER AIR INLAND. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OUT OF W TX SHOULD SERVE TO INCREASE LOWER LEVEL
WINDS ENOUGH FOR WARM ADVECTION RAINS TO BREAK OUT DURING THE EVENING
OVER AR/LA AND SPREAD NE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER OVER
THE MS DELTA REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CONDENSTAIONAL
WARMING AROUND H7 ALLOWS FOR THE GENERATION OF AROUND 100 J/KG OF
CAPE BETWEEN H7 AND H5 AND SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES IN THIS LAYER. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING THUNDER AT THE
MOMENT THOUGH AS NAM/ECMWF WERE NOT AS ROBUST WITH THIS SCENARIO./26/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AT THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN
THE ZONAL FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SOME
RAIN ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WILL CAUSE THE MEAN FLOW TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
BETTER RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION AS WE PUSH INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY THE MODELS HAVE
DECIDED TO CONVERGE THEIR SOLUTIONS ON THE MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME
BENEFICIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE REGION AS THE UPPER JETS BECOME
COUPLED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
AS WELL AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH GOOD ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODELS ARE PAINTING ONE TO
LOCALLY THREE PLUS INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON IT IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ARKLAMISS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
EURO AND GFS SEEM TO BE IN A GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
TRACK...WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL HUGS THE COAST LINE INTO FLORIDA. SO
WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE RAINS WILL END ON SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AS WE GO INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE
MODELS SEEM TO DIVERGE ONCE AGAIN ON SOLUTIONS. THE GFS GENERALLY
KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS...WHILE THE EURO PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THE CANADIAN BRINGS SOME RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH. SO OPTED TO
GO TOWARD THE BLEND OF THE WETTER EURO AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       55  32  57  41 /   0   0   0  14
MERIDIAN      57  30  59  38 /   0   0   0  10
VICKSBURG     55  32  55  41 /   0   0   0  34
HATTIESBURG   60  34  60  41 /   0   0   0   9
NATCHEZ       56  34  59  43 /   0   0   0  13
GREENVILLE    53  32  51  40 /   0   0   2  56
GREENWOOD     52  31  54  39 /   0   0   0  48

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/26/17







000
FXUS64 KJAN 160917
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
317 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS
JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA AS OF THIS WRITING. THE DAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT FOR MID DECEMBER...ALBEIT A LITTLE
BREEZY. MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND
GUSTS NEAR 20. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET AS DRIER
AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
COMMENCE. EXPECTING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS OUR FAIR WEATHER MAKER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO AL. IN THE MID
LEVELS...FLAT RIDGE WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST ALLOWING SW FLOW REGIME TO
RECOMMENCE. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVER SE
TX...ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL GET UNDERWAY AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR NEAR
THE TX COAST IS LIFTED UP/OVER THE COOLER AIR INLAND. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OUT OF W TX SHOULD SERVE TO INCREASE LOWER LEVEL
WINDS ENOUGH FOR WARM ADVECTION RAINS TO BREAK OUT DURING THE EVENING
OVER AR/LA AND SPREAD NE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER OVER
THE MS DELTA REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CONDENSTAIONAL
WARMING AROUND H7 ALLOWS FOR THE GENERATION OF AROUND 100 J/KG OF
CAPE BETWEEN H7 AND H5 AND SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES IN THIS LAYER. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING THUNDER AT THE
MOMENT THOUGH AS NAM/ECMWF WERE NOT AS ROBUST WITH THIS SCENARIO./26/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AT THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN
THE ZONAL FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SOME
RAIN ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WILL CAUSE THE MEAN FLOW TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
BETTER RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION AS WE PUSH INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY THE MODELS HAVE
DECIDED TO CONVERGE THEIR SOLUTIONS ON THE MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME
BENEFICIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE REGION AS THE UPPER JETS BECOME
COUPLED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
AS WELL AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH GOOD ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODELS ARE PAINTING ONE TO
LOCALLY THREE PLUS INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON IT IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ARKLAMISS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
EURO AND GFS SEEM TO BE IN A GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
TRACK...WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL HUGS THE COAST LINE INTO FLORIDA. SO
WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE RAINS WILL END ON SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AS WE GO INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE
MODELS SEEM TO DIVERGE ONCE AGAIN ON SOLUTIONS. THE GFS GENERALLY
KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS...WHILE THE EURO PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THE CANADIAN BRINGS SOME RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH. SO OPTED TO
GO TOWARD THE BLEND OF THE WETTER EURO AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT./17/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY 17/00Z./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       57  32  57  41 /   1   2   3  14
MERIDIAN      59  30  59  38 /   3   2   2  10
VICKSBURG     57  32  55  41 /   1   2   4  34
HATTIESBURG   62  34  60  41 /   3   2   2   9
NATCHEZ       58  34  59  43 /   1   2   4  13
GREENVILLE    53  32  51  40 /   1   2   7  56
GREENWOOD     53  31  54  39 /   1   2   4  48

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 160917
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
317 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS
JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA AS OF THIS WRITING. THE DAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT FOR MID DECEMBER...ALBEIT A LITTLE
BREEZY. MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND
GUSTS NEAR 20. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET AS DRIER
AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DECOUPLING AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
COMMENCE. EXPECTING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS OUR FAIR WEATHER MAKER...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO AL. IN THE MID
LEVELS...FLAT RIDGE WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST ALLOWING SW FLOW REGIME TO
RECOMMENCE. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVER SE
TX...ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL GET UNDERWAY AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR NEAR
THE TX COAST IS LIFTED UP/OVER THE COOLER AIR INLAND. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING NE OUT OF W TX SHOULD SERVE TO INCREASE LOWER LEVEL
WINDS ENOUGH FOR WARM ADVECTION RAINS TO BREAK OUT DURING THE EVENING
OVER AR/LA AND SPREAD NE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDER OVER
THE MS DELTA REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS STRONG CONDENSTAIONAL
WARMING AROUND H7 ALLOWS FOR THE GENERATION OF AROUND 100 J/KG OF
CAPE BETWEEN H7 AND H5 AND SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES IN THIS LAYER. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING THUNDER AT THE
MOMENT THOUGH AS NAM/ECMWF WERE NOT AS ROBUST WITH THIS SCENARIO./26/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AT THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN
THE ZONAL FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SOME
RAIN ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WILL CAUSE THE MEAN FLOW TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
BETTER RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION AS WE PUSH INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY THE MODELS HAVE
DECIDED TO CONVERGE THEIR SOLUTIONS ON THE MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME
BENEFICIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE REGION AS THE UPPER JETS BECOME
COUPLED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
AS WELL AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH GOOD ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODELS ARE PAINTING ONE TO
LOCALLY THREE PLUS INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON IT IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ARKLAMISS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
EURO AND GFS SEEM TO BE IN A GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
TRACK...WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL HUGS THE COAST LINE INTO FLORIDA. SO
WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE RAINS WILL END ON SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AS WE GO INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE
MODELS SEEM TO DIVERGE ONCE AGAIN ON SOLUTIONS. THE GFS GENERALLY
KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS...WHILE THE EURO PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THE CANADIAN BRINGS SOME RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH. SO OPTED TO
GO TOWARD THE BLEND OF THE WETTER EURO AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT./17/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY 17/00Z./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       57  32  57  41 /   1   2   3  14
MERIDIAN      59  30  59  38 /   3   2   2  10
VICKSBURG     57  32  55  41 /   1   2   4  34
HATTIESBURG   62  34  60  41 /   3   2   2   9
NATCHEZ       58  34  59  43 /   1   2   4  13
GREENVILLE    53  32  51  40 /   1   2   7  56
GREENWOOD     53  31  54  39 /   1   2   4  48

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 160301 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
901 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA.
THE SEVERE THREAT HAS EXPIRED BY NOW. A STORM CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS HOWEVER IS STILL POSSIBLE AS THE LINE PUSHES OFF INTO ALABAMA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE
POPS TO MATCH THE TIMING OF THE LINE. THE HOURLY TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS
LOOK SPOT ON AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
A NARROW LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD
FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE MEI/PIB/HBG CORRIDOR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS WE GO FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TUESDAY MORNING
WITH HEATING. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID AFTERNOON
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE NEARLY STACKED LOW MOVING OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WAS NOTED JUST WEST OF OUR SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS COUNTIES. THE SKIES WERE ALREADY CLEAR WEST OF A LINE FROM
GREENVILLE TO BASTROP. THIS CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS EVENING. EAST OF THE CLEARING LINE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR A STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME STRONG WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING AND BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
DESPITE THE TEMPERATURES BEING COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
NEAR NORMAL FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF OUR CWA AS OUR LOW ALOFT
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
RESULT SENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR FREEZING
AT MANY LOCATIONS. OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF
OUR REGION MAINTAINING A COOL DRY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY HIGHS.
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TAP INTO
SOME AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS LIGHT RAIN SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER OUR CWA THURSDAY. THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER OUR DELTA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /22/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES
THURSDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
A WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH TODAY`S RUN
SHOWING AN OPEN TROUGH VERSUS A CLOSED LOW AND A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE GULF COAST VERSUS ONE FARTHER INLAND. THE CONSENSUS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON`S RUN SUGGEST AN OPEN TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A FARTHER SOUTH ORIENTATION AND
WEAKER SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST DURING THE SAME
TIMEFRAME. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WHICH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR CWA CURRENTLY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUNDAY. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       43  58  33  56 /  11   1   2   3
MERIDIAN      46  59  32  57 /  69   3   2   2
VICKSBURG     40  58  33  56 /  11   1   2   4
HATTIESBURG   52  63  34  59 /  69   3   2   2
NATCHEZ       43  58  35  57 /  11   1   2   4
GREENVILLE    39  55  33  51 /   9   1   2   7
GREENWOOD     42  55  32  54 /  10   1   2   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KJAN 160301 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
901 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA.
THE SEVERE THREAT HAS EXPIRED BY NOW. A STORM CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS HOWEVER IS STILL POSSIBLE AS THE LINE PUSHES OFF INTO ALABAMA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE
POPS TO MATCH THE TIMING OF THE LINE. THE HOURLY TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS
LOOK SPOT ON AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
A NARROW LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD
FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE MEI/PIB/HBG CORRIDOR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS WE GO FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TUESDAY MORNING
WITH HEATING. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID AFTERNOON
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE NEARLY STACKED LOW MOVING OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WAS NOTED JUST WEST OF OUR SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS COUNTIES. THE SKIES WERE ALREADY CLEAR WEST OF A LINE FROM
GREENVILLE TO BASTROP. THIS CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS EVENING. EAST OF THE CLEARING LINE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR A STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME STRONG WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING AND BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
DESPITE THE TEMPERATURES BEING COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
NEAR NORMAL FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF OUR CWA AS OUR LOW ALOFT
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
RESULT SENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR FREEZING
AT MANY LOCATIONS. OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF
OUR REGION MAINTAINING A COOL DRY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY HIGHS.
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TAP INTO
SOME AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS LIGHT RAIN SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER OUR CWA THURSDAY. THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER OUR DELTA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /22/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES
THURSDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
A WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH TODAY`S RUN
SHOWING AN OPEN TROUGH VERSUS A CLOSED LOW AND A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE GULF COAST VERSUS ONE FARTHER INLAND. THE CONSENSUS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON`S RUN SUGGEST AN OPEN TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A FARTHER SOUTH ORIENTATION AND
WEAKER SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST DURING THE SAME
TIMEFRAME. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WHICH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR CWA CURRENTLY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUNDAY. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       43  58  33  56 /  11   1   2   3
MERIDIAN      46  59  32  57 /  69   3   2   2
VICKSBURG     40  58  33  56 /  11   1   2   4
HATTIESBURG   52  63  34  59 /  69   3   2   2
NATCHEZ       43  58  35  57 /  11   1   2   4
GREENVILLE    39  55  33  51 /   9   1   2   7
GREENWOOD     42  55  32  54 /  10   1   2   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 152202
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID AFTERNOON
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE NEARLY STACKED LOW MOVING OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WAS NOTED JUST WEST OF OUR SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS COUNTIES. THE SKIES WERE ALREADY CLEAR WEST OF A LINE FROM
GREENVILLE TO BASTROP. THIS CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS EVENING. EAST OF THE CLEARING LINE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR A STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME STRONG WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING AND BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
DESPITE THE TEMPERATURES BEING COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
NEAR NORMAL FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF OUR CWA AS OUR LOW ALOFT
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
RESULT SENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR FREEZING
AT MANY LOCATIONS. OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF
OUR REGION MAINTAINING A COOL DRY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY HIGHS.
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TAP INTO
SOME AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS LIGHT RAIN SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER OUR CWA THURSDAY. THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER OUR DELTA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /22/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES
THURSDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
A WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH TODAY`S RUN
SHOWING AN OPEN TROUGH VERSUS A CLOSED LOW AND A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE GULF COAST VERSUS ONE FARTHER INLAND. THE CONSENSUS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON`S RUN SUGGEST AN OPEN TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A FARTHER SOUTH ORIENTATION AND
WEAKER SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST DURING THE SAME
TIMEFRAME. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WHICH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR CWA CURRENTLY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUNDAY. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE DELTA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST TAF SITES ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHEAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       43  59  35  55 /  45   3   2   5
MERIDIAN      47  61  34  56 /  49   3   2   4
VICKSBURG     41  59  33  55 /  17   2   2   6
HATTIESBURG   52  65  35  59 /  47   3   2   3
NATCHEZ       44  59  34  56 /  27   2   2   5
GREENVILLE    40  55  33  50 /  14   2   2   7
GREENWOOD     42  55  33  52 /  32   2   2   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/15









000
FXUS64 KJAN 152202
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID AFTERNOON
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE NEARLY STACKED LOW MOVING OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WAS NOTED JUST WEST OF OUR SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS COUNTIES. THE SKIES WERE ALREADY CLEAR WEST OF A LINE FROM
GREENVILLE TO BASTROP. THIS CLEARING LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS EVENING. EAST OF THE CLEARING LINE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR A STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME STRONG WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING AND BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
DESPITE THE TEMPERATURES BEING COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
NEAR NORMAL FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF OUR CWA AS OUR LOW ALOFT
BECOMES NEAR ZONAL TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
RESULT SENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR FREEZING
AT MANY LOCATIONS. OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF
OUR REGION MAINTAINING A COOL DRY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY HIGHS.
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TAP INTO
SOME AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS LIGHT RAIN SHIFTING EAST INTO OUR AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING OVER OUR CWA THURSDAY. THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER OUR DELTA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /22/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES
THURSDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
A WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH TODAY`S RUN
SHOWING AN OPEN TROUGH VERSUS A CLOSED LOW AND A SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE GULF COAST VERSUS ONE FARTHER INLAND. THE CONSENSUS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON`S RUN SUGGEST AN OPEN TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A FARTHER SOUTH ORIENTATION AND
WEAKER SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST DURING THE SAME
TIMEFRAME. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WHICH APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR CWA CURRENTLY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUNDAY. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE DELTA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST TAF SITES ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHEAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       43  59  35  55 /  45   3   2   5
MERIDIAN      47  61  34  56 /  49   3   2   4
VICKSBURG     41  59  33  55 /  17   2   2   6
HATTIESBURG   52  65  35  59 /  47   3   2   3
NATCHEZ       44  59  34  56 /  27   2   2   5
GREENVILLE    40  55  33  50 /  14   2   2   7
GREENWOOD     42  55  33  52 /  32   2   2   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/15










000
FXUS64 KJAN 151719
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1105 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEARLY STACKED LOW SPINNING
OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT NEARING THE
ARKLATEX. DRIER AIR WAS NOTED WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND HAS
CLEARED SKIES WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. OVER OUR CWA A BROKEN
DECK OVER CLOUD COVER WAS NOTED MAKING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST A
LITTLE DIFFICULT. THE COLD SPOT TRAILING BEHIND WAS STILL OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES. LOCAL RADARS SHOWED TWO PRIMARY BANDS OF PCPN. THE
LEAD BAND HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE AND WILL SWING EAST
OF OUR CWA BY MID AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING BAND WAS MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS COUNTIES AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES AND
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MUCH
OF OUR CWA HAD SURFACE DEW POINTS STILL IN THE MID 50S BUT OVER OUR
LOUISIANA PARISHES JUST AHEAD OF THE TRAILING LINE OF CONVECTION
LOWER 60 DEW POINTS HAVE POOLED. HIRES MODELS AND THE NAM STILL SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID 60 DEW POINTS OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOWER 70S. WITH
INCREASING SHEAR AND HELICITY THIS AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.
THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS TO WAIN BY EARLY EVENING AND THIS CHANCE
APPEARS LOW BUT WL MAINTAIN OUR OUTLOOK AREA AND MENTION IN THE HWO.
/22/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE UP GENERALLY ALONG THE
NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DELTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOST TAF SITES. THE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT
7-12KTS AND WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL SWING
AROUND TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS./15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOCUS FOR THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WV IMAGERY SHOWING A WRAPPED UP MID
LEVEL COLD CORE QUICKLY LIFTING NE OUT OF N OK/E KS. SYSTEM MOVEMENT
HAS BEEN AS SUCH TO NOT ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED...IN FACT...NARROW WARM/MOIST AXIS IS
PRETTY MUCH ALIGNED WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH NW AR/SE OK/NE TX. MAJORITY OF ONGOING CONVECTION APPEARS
ELEVATED...ALTHOUGH SOME OVER SE TX MAY BE MORE ROOTED NEAR THE
SURFACE.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...FORECAST
PROBLEM WILL BE JUST HOW STRONG STORMS CAN GET. AMBIENT SHEAR WILL
NOT BE A PROBLEM AS 0-3KM SRH VALUES RANGE FROM 300-400 M2/S2...AND
0-1KM VALUES 250-350 M2/S2 DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME
FRAME. THE PROBLEM COMES IN WITH INSTABILITY AND WHETHER IT CAN ROOT
ITSELF NEAR THE GROUND. THE BEST POSSIBILITY FOR THIS TO OCCUR LOOKS
TO BE OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 65
WILL NOSE UP IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...MIXED LAYER CAPES WILL RISE TO THE
500-700 J/KG RANGE. HRRR AND NAM ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER OUR SW PORTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THE HRRR IS ALSO INTERMITTENTLY SHOWING SOME DECENT UPDRAFT
HELICITIES WITH SOME OF ITS FORECAST STORMS. WILL...THEREFORE...
OUTLOOK A LIMITED SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT OVER THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY MID
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING./26/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AT THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ZONAL MEAN RIDGING WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL CAUSE THE MEAN FLOW
TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE PLAINS WILL BRING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MEANWHILE OUR ROCKIES SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. THERE IS EVEN A WIDER RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST NORTH
WITH THE SURFACE LOW GOING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDSOUTH
REGION. THE EURO SEEMS TO HAVE GONE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ON THIS
RUN. IT TAKES THE SURFACE LOW FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH
THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN MEANWHILE
KEEPS IT SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST AND PUSHES IT INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE IS SIMILAR TO THE
EURO TRACK WITH A WEAKER SURFACE LOW.  SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL GO
WITH THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH THE WEAKER GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION.
THE ENSEMBLE HAS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL PUSH THE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE CHANCES A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
THE SURFACE LOW TRACK FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RAINS WILL CLEAR OUT ON
SATURDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE FLAT RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

HAVE ALIGNED TEMPS AND POPS TOWARD THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE PATH OF THE
SURFACE LOW. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD ON POPS AND TEMPS MADE SOME
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  43  59  35 /  65  45   3   2
MERIDIAN      69  47  61  34 /  55  49   3   2
VICKSBURG     73  41  59  33 /  65  17   2   2
HATTIESBURG   72  52  65  35 /  53  47   3   2
NATCHEZ       72  44  59  34 /  65  27   2   2
GREENVILLE    70  40  55  33 /  65  14   2   2
GREENWOOD     70  42  55  33 /  65  32   2   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/15/26/17










000
FXUS64 KJAN 151719
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1105 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEARLY STACKED LOW SPINNING
OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT NEARING THE
ARKLATEX. DRIER AIR WAS NOTED WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND HAS
CLEARED SKIES WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. OVER OUR CWA A BROKEN
DECK OVER CLOUD COVER WAS NOTED MAKING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST A
LITTLE DIFFICULT. THE COLD SPOT TRAILING BEHIND WAS STILL OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES. LOCAL RADARS SHOWED TWO PRIMARY BANDS OF PCPN. THE
LEAD BAND HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE AND WILL SWING EAST
OF OUR CWA BY MID AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING BAND WAS MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS COUNTIES AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES AND
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MUCH
OF OUR CWA HAD SURFACE DEW POINTS STILL IN THE MID 50S BUT OVER OUR
LOUISIANA PARISHES JUST AHEAD OF THE TRAILING LINE OF CONVECTION
LOWER 60 DEW POINTS HAVE POOLED. HIRES MODELS AND THE NAM STILL SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID 60 DEW POINTS OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE LOWER 70S. WITH
INCREASING SHEAR AND HELICITY THIS AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS.
THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS TO WAIN BY EARLY EVENING AND THIS CHANCE
APPEARS LOW BUT WL MAINTAIN OUR OUTLOOK AREA AND MENTION IN THE HWO.
/22/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE UP GENERALLY ALONG THE
NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DELTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOST TAF SITES. THE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT
7-12KTS AND WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL SWING
AROUND TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS./15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FOCUS FOR THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. WV IMAGERY SHOWING A WRAPPED UP MID
LEVEL COLD CORE QUICKLY LIFTING NE OUT OF N OK/E KS. SYSTEM MOVEMENT
HAS BEEN AS SUCH TO NOT ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED...IN FACT...NARROW WARM/MOIST AXIS IS
PRETTY MUCH ALIGNED WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH NW AR/SE OK/NE TX. MAJORITY OF ONGOING CONVECTION APPEARS
ELEVATED...ALTHOUGH SOME OVER SE TX MAY BE MORE ROOTED NEAR THE
SURFACE.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...FORECAST
PROBLEM WILL BE JUST HOW STRONG STORMS CAN GET. AMBIENT SHEAR WILL
NOT BE A PROBLEM AS 0-3KM SRH VALUES RANGE FROM 300-400 M2/S2...AND
0-1KM VALUES 250-350 M2/S2 DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME
FRAME. THE PROBLEM COMES IN WITH INSTABILITY AND WHETHER IT CAN ROOT
ITSELF NEAR THE GROUND. THE BEST POSSIBILITY FOR THIS TO OCCUR LOOKS
TO BE OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 65
WILL NOSE UP IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...MIXED LAYER CAPES WILL RISE TO THE
500-700 J/KG RANGE. HRRR AND NAM ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER OUR SW PORTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THE HRRR IS ALSO INTERMITTENTLY SHOWING SOME DECENT UPDRAFT
HELICITIES WITH SOME OF ITS FORECAST STORMS. WILL...THEREFORE...
OUTLOOK A LIMITED SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT OVER THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY MID
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING./26/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AT THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ZONAL MEAN RIDGING WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL CAUSE THE MEAN FLOW
TO BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE PLAINS WILL BRING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MEANWHILE OUR ROCKIES SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. THERE IS EVEN A WIDER RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST NORTH
WITH THE SURFACE LOW GOING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDSOUTH
REGION. THE EURO SEEMS TO HAVE GONE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ON THIS
RUN. IT TAKES THE SURFACE LOW FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH
THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN MEANWHILE
KEEPS IT SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST AND PUSHES IT INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE IS SIMILAR TO THE
EURO TRACK WITH A WEAKER SURFACE LOW.  SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL GO
WITH THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH THE WEAKER GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION.
THE ENSEMBLE HAS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL PUSH THE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE CHANCES A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
THE SURFACE LOW TRACK FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RAINS WILL CLEAR OUT ON
SATURDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE FLAT RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

HAVE ALIGNED TEMPS AND POPS TOWARD THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE PATH OF THE
SURFACE LOW. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD ON POPS AND TEMPS MADE SOME
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  43  59  35 /  65  45   3   2
MERIDIAN      69  47  61  34 /  55  49   3   2
VICKSBURG     73  41  59  33 /  65  17   2   2
HATTIESBURG   72  52  65  35 /  53  47   3   2
NATCHEZ       72  44  59  34 /  65  27   2   2
GREENVILLE    70  40  55  33 /  65  14   2   2
GREENWOOD     70  42  55  33 /  65  32   2   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/15/26/17









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