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000
FXUS64 KJAN 162051
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
351 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST
CONTINUES ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE CHILLY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S EAST TO THE LOWER 40S
WEST. WINDS WILL BE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPS...MAINLY AROUND 70. A DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO
DEVELOP IN THE GULF ON THURSDAY...WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
CHANCES FOR THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE. LATEST
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE CWA FRIDAY FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES IN...SO NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS
TIME AND WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MAINLY IN THE MID 70S. /27/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE WILL CONTINUE OUR
PROGRESSIVE COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
IS SOME AMPLITUDE AND TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAD
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MOVING AND PHASING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. HOWEVER ALL MODELS HAD SOME FORM OF A
COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THE GFS AND EURO GENERALLY AGREED
WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN AND MOVEMENT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
BUT NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE AMPLITUDE AND QPF WITH THE SHORTWAVES.
THIS ALSO THE CASE WITH THE NAVGEM MODEL WITH ITS OWN SOLUTION WITH
THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN. IT TRIED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL
HIGH WITH THE TIMING OF THE MODELS ON THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

STARTING ON THE WEEKEND UPPER RIDGING WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY PHASED SHORT WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN MOISTURE IN FROM THE WEST FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PWATS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES. MODELS SOUNDINGS DON`T SHOW MUCH CAPPING WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HAVE ERODED THE DRY LAYER IN THE MIDLEVELS
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR DEEPER LAYER CONVECTION. MIDLEVEL
DRYING DOES COME BACK SOME ON TUESDAY AS WE GET SOME DRY INFLOW FROM
THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGING FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ITS TIME PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
WHICH MEANS THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY
EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AS FAR AS POPS AND TEMPS ARE CONCERN GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND
OF MEX...GMOS AND HPC GUIDANCE. /17/


&&

.AVIATION...A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
/22/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       40  70  55  76 /   0   4  16  14
MERIDIAN      37  69  52  74 /   0   4  20  16
VICKSBURG     41  69  54  76 /   0   4  16  14
HATTIESBURG   41  70  55  76 /   0   8  24  16
NATCHEZ       42  68  55  75 /   0   6  16  16
GREENVILLE    42  70  54  76 /   0   4  16  14
GREENWOOD     40  70  54  76 /   0   4  16  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 161442 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
942 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA WITH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE MID 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. /SW/


&&

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...417 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. POPS HAVE CHANGED IN THE NEWEST MODEL RUN...SO
BACKED OFF FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. WENT WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL NO HUGE CHANGES...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO
THE POPS.

WINDS AND MOISTURE HAVE REMAINED IN PLACE TONIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT FALLEN AS QUICKLY OR AS LOW AS EXPECTED SO FAR. WILL LIKELY
MAKE A LATE DECISION ON THE FREEZE WARNING TO AVOID FLIP FLOPPING AT
THIS POINT. THINKING TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY IF THE WINDS
BECOME CALM. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE SOME FROST ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY VALUES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOW FALL. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND COOL AIR DRAINING INTO
THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST...WILL BRING A FEW UPPER WAVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...KEEPING THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS
IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF
THE AREA...BEFORE IT DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST. THE RAIN FOR THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK...BUT
FOR NOW CHANCES SEEM LIMITED. THE GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH LOWER POPS
TODAY...SO WENT WITH THEM. A BOUNDARY...MAYBE AN INVERTED TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...BUT THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY COULD
EXTEND INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES. AGAIN CHANCES SEEM LIMITED...SO LEFT
RAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE WILL CONTINUE OUR
PROGRESSIVE COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
IS SOME AMPLITUDE AND TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAD
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MOVING AND PHASING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. HOWEVER ALL MODELS HAD SOME FORM OF A
COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THE GFS AND EURO GENERALLY AGREED
WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN AND MOVEMENT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.
.BUT NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE  AMPLITUDE AND QPF WITH THE
SHORTWAVES. THIS ALSO THE CASE WITH THE NAVGEM MODEL WITH ITS OWN
SOLUTION WITH THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN. IT TRIED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT
REAL HIGH WITH THE TIMING OF THE MODELS ON THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

STARTING ON THE WEEKEND UPPER RIDGING WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY PHASED SHORT WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN MOISTURE IN FROM THE WEST FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PWATS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND  1.5
INCHES. MODELS SOUNDINGS DON`T SHOW MUCH CAPPING WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HAVE ERODED THE DRY LAYER IN THE MIDLEVELS
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR DEEPER LAYER CONVECTION. MIDLEVEL
DRYING DOES COME BACK SOME ON TUESDAY AS WE GET SOME DRY INFLOW FROM
THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGING FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ITS TIME PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
WHICH MEANS THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY
EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AS FAR AS POPS AND TEMPS ARE CONCERN GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND
OF MEX...GMOS AND HPC GUIDANCE. /17/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  40  71  56 /   0   0   3  13
MERIDIAN      66  36  70  53 /   0   0   4  18
VICKSBURG     64  41  70  55 /   0   0   4  14
HATTIESBURG   67  41  71  57 /   0   0  11  18
NATCHEZ       63  42  68  54 /   0   0   9  11
GREENVILLE    64  42  70  54 /   0   0   4  14
GREENWOOD     64  40  71  53 /   0   0   4  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 161111
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
610 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING. WITH WINDS AND MIXING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND SUNRISE
OCCURRING SOON...THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED. A FEW LOCATIONS WERE
AROUND 32 AND MAY FALL TO NEAR 30 BRIEFLY WITH SOME FROST...HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD FREEZING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THERE WAS ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG...EXPECTING TO SEE IT NEAR BODIES OF
WATER AND IN LOW LYING AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG WAS NOT EXPECTED.

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...417 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. POPS HAVE CHANGED IN THE NEWEST MODEL RUN...SO
BACKED OFF FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. WENT WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL NO HUGE CHANGES...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO
THE POPS.

WINDS AND MOISTURE HAVE REMAINED IN PLACE TONIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT FALLEN AS QUICKLY OR AS LOW AS EXPECTED SO FAR. WILL LIKELY
MAKE A LATE DECISION ON THE FREEZE WARNING TO AVOID FLIP FLOPPING AT
THIS POINT. THINKING TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY IF THE WINDS
BECOME CALM. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE SOME FROST ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY VALUES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOW FALL. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND COOL AIR DRAINING INTO
THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST...WILL BRING A FEW UPPER WAVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...KEEPING THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS
IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF
THE AREA...BEFORE IT DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST. THE RAIN FOR THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK...BUT
FOR NOW CHANCES SEEM LIMITED. THE GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH LOWER POPS
TODAY...SO WENT WITH THEM. A BOUNDARY...MAYBE AN INVERTED TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...BUT THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY COULD
EXTEND INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES. AGAIN CHANCES SEEM LIMITED...SO LEFT
RAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE WILL CONTINUE OUR
PROGRESSIVE COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
IS SOME AMPLITUDE AND TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAD
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MOVING AND PHASING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. HOWEVER ALL MODELS HAD SOME FORM OF A
COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THE GFS AND EURO GENERALLY AGREED
WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN AND MOVEMENT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.
..BUT NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE  AMPLITUDE AND QPF WITH THE
SHORTWAVES. THIS ALSO THE CASE WITH THE NAVGEM MODEL WITH ITS OWN
SOLUTION WITH THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN. IT TRIED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT
REAL HIGH WITH THE TIMING OF THE MODELS ON THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

STARTING ON THE WEEKEND UPPER RIDGING WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY PHASED SHORT WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN MOISTURE IN FROM THE WEST FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PWATS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND  1.5
INCHES. MODELS SOUNDINGS DON`T SHOW MUCH CAPPING WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HAVE ERODED THE DRY LAYER IN THE MIDLEVELS
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR DEEPER LAYER CONVECTION. MIDLEVEL
DRYING DOES COME BACK SOME ON TUESDAY AS WE GET SOME DRY INFLOW FROM
THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGING FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ITS TIME PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
WHICH MEANS THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY
EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AS FAR AS POPS AND TEMPS ARE CONCERN GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND
OF MEX...GMOS AND HPC GUIDANCE./17/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WILL ADD SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH THE NEXT PACKAGE. HIGH CLOUDS MAY
MOVE IN AT TH END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP THING CLEAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  40  71  56 /   0   0   3  13
MERIDIAN      66  36  70  53 /   0   0   4  18
VICKSBURG     64  41  70  55 /   0   0   4  14
HATTIESBURG   67  41  71  57 /   0   0  11  18
NATCHEZ       63  42  68  54 /   0   0   9  11
GREENVILLE    64  42  70  54 /   0   0   4  14
GREENWOOD     64  40  71  53 /   0   0   4  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.

LA...NONE.

AR...NONE.

&&

$$

07/17/7










000
FXUS64 KJAN 161038
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
538 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING. WITH WINDS AND MIXING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND SUNRISE
OCCURRING SOON...THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED. A FEW LOCATIONS WERE
AROUND 32 AND MAY FALL TO NEAR 30 BRIEFLY WITH SOME FROST...HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD FREEZING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THERE WAS ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG...EXPECTING TO SEE IT NEAR BODIES OF
WATER AND IN LOW LYING AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG WAS NOT EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  40  71  56 /   0   0   3  13
MERIDIAN      66  36  70  53 /   0   0   4  18
VICKSBURG     64  41  70  55 /   0   0   4  14
HATTIESBURG   67  41  71  57 /   0   0  11  18
NATCHEZ       63  42  68  54 /   0   0   9  11
GREENVILLE    64  42  70  54 /   0   0   4  14
GREENWOOD     64  40  71  53 /   0   0   4  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7







000
FXUS64 KJAN 160917
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
417 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. POPS HAVE CHANGED IN THE NEWEST MODEL RUN...SO
BACKED OFF FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. WENT WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL NO HUGE CHANGES...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO
THE POPS.

WINDS AND MOISTURE HAVE REMAINED IN PLACE TONIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT FALLEN AS QUICKLY OR AS LOW AS EXPECTED SO FAR. WILL LIKELY
MAKE A LATE DECISION ON THE FREEZE WARNING TO AVOID FLIP FLOPPING AT
THIS POINT. THINKING TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY IF THE WINDS
BECOME CALM. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE SOME FROST ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY VALUES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOW FALL. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND COOL AIR DRAINING INTO
THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST...WILL BRING A FEW UPPER WAVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...KEEPING THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS
IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF
THE AREA...BEFORE IT DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST. THE RAIN FOR THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK...BUT
FOR NOW CHANCES SEEM LIMITED. THE GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH LOWER POPS
TODAY...SO WENT WITH THEM. A BOUNDARY...MAYBE AN INVERTED TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS...BUT THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY COULD
EXTEND INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES. AGAIN CHANCES SEEM LIMITED...SO LEFT
RAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE WILL CONTINUE OUR
PROGRESSIVE COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
IS SOME AMPLITUDE AND TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAD
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MOVING AND PHASING OF SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. HOWEVER ALL MODELS HAD SOME FORM OF A
COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THE GFS AND EURO GENERALLY AGREED
WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN AND MOVEMENT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.
..BUT NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE  AMPLITUDE AND QPF WITH THE
SHORTWAVES. THIS ALSO THE CASE WITH THE NAVGEM MODEL WITH ITS OWN
SOLUTION WITH THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN. IT TRIED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT
REAL HIGH WITH THE TIMING OF THE MODELS ON THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

STARTING ON THE WEEKEND UPPER RIDGING WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A NEARLY PHASED SHORT WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN MOISTURE IN FROM THE WEST FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PWATS ON SUNDAY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND  1.5
INCHES. MODELS SOUNDINGS DON`T SHOW MUCH CAPPING WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HAVE ERODED THE DRY LAYER IN THE MIDLEVELS
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR DEEPER LAYER CONVECTION. MIDLEVEL
DRYING DOES COME BACK SOME ON TUESDAY AS WE GET SOME DRY INFLOW FROM
THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGING FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE ITS TIME PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
WHICH MEANS THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY
EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AS FAR AS POPS AND TEMPS ARE CONCERN GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND
OF MEX...GMOS AND HPC GUIDANCE./17/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WILL ADD SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH THE NEXT PACKAGE. HIGH CLOUDS MAY
MOVE IN AT TH END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP THING CLEAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  40  71  56 /   0   0   3  13
MERIDIAN      66  36  70  53 /   0   0   4  18
VICKSBURG     64  41  70  55 /   0   0   4  14
HATTIESBURG   67  41  71  57 /   0   0  11  18
NATCHEZ       63  42  68  54 /   0   0   9  11
GREENVILLE    64  42  70  54 /   0   0   4  14
GREENWOOD     64  40  71  53 /   0   0   4  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

07/17/7







000
FXUS64 KJAN 160304
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1004 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK AND MADE NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A BIT OF HIGH THIN CIRRUS APPROACHING
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO SIGNIFICANTY DISRUPT NIGHTTIME COOLING. WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR AND ALLOW
COOLING RATES TO INCREASE THERE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

..RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST TONIGHT...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM REMAINS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE THE FLOW OF COOL DRY AIR
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30 AT MOST LOCATIONS AND PWS WERE NEAR A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1026MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE SWIFTLY TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...ACROSS
OUR CWA THIS EVENING AND TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MORNING. OUR GUSTY
NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD BUT MAY RESULT IN A LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND TOWARD
MORNING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. THIS MAY HINDER
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING A FEW DEGREES MORE THAN THEY WOULD ON AN
IDEAL STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING NIGHT. DESPITE A LITTLE WIND
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND OUR COOL DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED. THE FREEZE WARNING
HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER THE WHOLE CWA TONIGHT AS IT IS THE
GROWING SEASON AND PROTECTION OF VEGETATION FROM THE COLD SHOULD BE
TAKEN. TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE EAST SOUTHEAST
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLIGHTLY. COOLER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BUT MOST SITES WILL REACH THE MID 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST BUT MOST SITES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S. DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE A LITTLE MORE THURSDAY AS PWS CLIMB FROM A HALF INCH
IN THE MORNING TO BACK OVER AN INCH BY EVENING. A SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE PLAINS AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK
TO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GREATER CHANCE FOR RAIN BEING
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN BUT MODELS SHOW HINTS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG THE HIGHWAY
84 CORRIDOR SO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. /22/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH A GENERAL SUBTLENESS TO
THE ENERGIES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
THIS PATTERN IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT DIFFERENCES ABOUND IN THE
TIMING OF BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. AS
SUCH...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IS LOW.
GFS ENSEMBLE ALSO SHOWS THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME PERIOD WITH
DEFINITE PHASE PROBLEMS WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS.

DESPITE MODEL DETAIL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...TRIED TO FIND SOME
COMMON GROUND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE SYSTEMS THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA.

MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD COMBINED
WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BUILD MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. A RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO TRY
AND ACT ON MOISTURE RETURN FRIDAY...BUT AVAILABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE
ONLY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AT BEST AS CAP AROUND H7
LOOKS TO HOLD FIRM.

GFS/ECMWF AGREE IN BRIEF MID LEVEL RIDGING FOR SATURDAY WITH A
SOMEWHAT MORE PHASED TROF POISED TO MAKE AN ATTEMPT THROUGH THE
AREA BY SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO SPRING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL HAVE ERODED THE
WARM/DRY MID LEVELS BY NOW WITH DEEPER CONVECTION LOOKING MORE
LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY IN INCREASED
CONVERGENCE ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /EC/

&&

.CLIMATE...


STATION//4/16 FORECAST LOW//DAILY RECORD(DATE)//LATEST FREEZE

JAN    //       31        //     33 (1983)    //  4/25/1910
MEI    //       29        //     32 (2007)    //  4/25/1910
GLH    //       32        //     32 (1926)    //  4/16/1926
GWO    //       29        //     35 (2007)    //  4/15/2008
TVR    //       31        //     33 (2007)    //  4/21/1953
HBG    //       31        //     34 (1950)    //  4/15/1950

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       31  66  42  69 /   0   0   3   9
MERIDIAN      29  65  38  70 /   0   0   4   8
VICKSBURG     31  64  41  68 /   0   0   2   9
HATTIESBURG   30  67  42  71 /   0   0   5  13
NATCHEZ       31  64  42  69 /   0   0   3  10
GREENVILLE    32  64  42  70 /   0   0   2   5
GREENWOOD     29  64  41  70 /   0   0   2   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-
     015-016-023>026.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 152003
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM REMAINS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE THE FLOW OF COOL DRY AIR
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO NEAR 30 AT MOST LOCATIONS AND PWS WERE NEAR A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1026MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE SWIFTLY TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...ACROSS
OUR CWA THIS EVENING AND TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MORNING. OUR GUSTY
NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD BUT MAY RESULT IN A LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND TOWARD
MORNING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. THIS MAY HINDER
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING A FEW DEGREES MORE THAN THEY WOULD ON AN
IDEAL STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING NIGHT. DESPITE A LITTLE WIND
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND OUR COOL DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED. THE FREEZE WARNING
HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER THE WHOLE CWA TONIGHT AS IT IS THE
GROWING SEASON AND PROTECTION OF VEGETATION FROM THE COLD SHOULD BE
TAKEN. TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE EAST SOUTHEAST
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLIGHTLY. COOLER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BUT MOST SITES WILL REACH THE MID 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHEAST BUT MOST SITES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S. DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE A LITTLE MORE THURSDAY AS PWS CLIMB FROM A HALF INCH
IN THE MORNING TO BACK OVER AN INCH BY EVENING. A SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE PLAINS AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BACK
TO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GREATER CHANCE FOR RAIN BEING
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN BUT MODELS SHOW HINTS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG THE HIGHWAY
84 CORRIDOR SO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. /22/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH A GENERAL SUBTLENESS TO
THE ENERGIES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
THIS PATTERN IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT DIFFERENCES ABOUND IN THE
TIMING OF BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. AS
SUCH...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IS LOW.
GFS ENSEMBLE ALSO SHOWS THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME PERIOD WITH
DEFINITE PHASE PROBLEMS WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS.

DESPITE MODEL DETAIL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...TRIED TO FIND SOME
COMMON GROUND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE SYSTEMS THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA.

MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD COMBINED
WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BUILD MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY. A RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO TRY
AND ACT ON MOISTURE RETURN FRIDAY...BUT AVAILABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE
ONLY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AT BEST AS CAP AROUND H7
LOOKS TO HOLD FIRM.

GFS/ECMWF AGREE IN BRIEF MID LEVEL RIDGING FOR SATURDAY WITH A
SOMEWHAT MORE PHASED TROF POISED TO MAKE AN ATTEMPT THROUGH THE
AREA BY SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO SPRING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL HAVE ERODED THE
WARM/DRY MID LEVELS BY NOW WITH DEEPER CONVECTION LOOKING MORE
LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY IN INCREASED
CONVERGENCE ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION AT MID
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL RELAX FROM THE WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BEST WINDS SHOULD BE CONFIDED TO THE EASTERN AREAS UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT WITH SOME MORNING
FROST EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE ON 5 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. /17/

&&

.CLIMATE...

STATION//4/16 FORECAST LOW//DAILY RECORD(DATE)//LATEST FREEZE

JAN    //       31        //     33 (1983)    //  4/25/1910
MEI    //       29        //     32 (2007)    //  4/25/1910
GLH    //       32        //     32 (1926)    //  4/16/1926
GWO    //       29        //     35 (2007)    //  4/15/2008
TVR    //       31        //     33 (2007)    //  4/21/1953
HBG    //       31        //     34 (1950)    //  4/15/1950

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       31  66  42  69 /   0   0   3   9
MERIDIAN      29  65  38  70 /   0   0   4   8
VICKSBURG     31  64  41  68 /   0   0   2   9
HATTIESBURG   31  67  42  71 /   0   0   5  13
NATCHEZ       31  64  42  69 /   0   0   3  10
GREENVILLE    32  64  42  70 /   0   0   2   5
GREENWOOD     29  64  41  70 /   0   0   2   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-
     015-016-023>026.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

22/26/17










000
FXUS64 KJAN 151540 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1040 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...BACK EDGE OF CLOUD COVER WAS NEARING INTERSTATE 59 AND
SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY NOON. CLEAR SKIES AND A BREEZY NORTH
WIND ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL BE DECREASING FROM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS 1028MB HIGH CENTERED OVER TEXAS THIS
MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST SPREADING A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO
OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING 17-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AT 10AM. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR TONIGHT. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS WERE PUSHING ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
LATE THIS MORNING. THIS DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY 17Z.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 25 KNOTS TO OCCASIONALLY 30
KNOTS WILL RELAX FROM THE WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST WINDS
SHOULD BE CONFIDED TO THE EASTERN AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT WITH SOME MORNING FROST
EXPECTED./17/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

..UNSEASONABLY CHILLY SPRING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND A BIT
OF LEFTOVER DRIZZLE ARE TAKING THEIR TIME EXITING THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH PLOWED THROUGH THE REGION LATE
YESTERDAY ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS. BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL
ASSUREDLY DEPART THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT QUICKLY ENOUGH
TO BEAT THE RISING SUN ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE
DAY BEHIND THE EXITING CLOUDS THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE STARTLINGLY
CHILLY...MADE WORSE BY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN NORTHERN
ZONES TO THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN ZONES. A WIND ADVISORY WAS
BRIEFLY DEBATED FOR TODAY...BUT GUSTS AND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA GENERALLY AND WILL BE HANDLED IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICS.

THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE RELAXING RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS
THE BOTTOM END OF THE RESPONSIBLE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SINKS DOWN
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR AND THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL EFFICIENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
MOST CASES AND THIS WAS DEEMED SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING GIVEN THE LATE CALENDER
DATE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE WARNING WAS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 98
CORRIDOR IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MS WHERE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT WHETHER WINDS COULD STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH FROST
OR FREEZING TEMPS. SO IN THAT AREA A FREEZE WATCH WAS ISSUED AND THE
NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO DECIDE WHETHER TO FLIP THIS OVER TO A
WARNING BASED UPON THE LATEST MODEL DATA.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS THANKFULLY WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL SOME 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN TERMS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES. WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOME HIGHER CLOUDS FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE
DETERRENTS TO REACHING MAXIMUM WARMING POTENTIAL.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SUBTLE LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEEPENS AND APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS
STATES. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD GET
ITS ACT TOGETHER ENOUGH BY LATE IN THE NIGHT TO BRING SOME LOW
CLOUDS INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BY DAWN THURSDAY...BUT CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE VERY LOW AND TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW
NORMAL. /BB/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH A GENERAL SUBTLENESS TO
THE ENERGIES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
THIS PATTERN IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT DIFFERENCES ABOUND IN THE
TIMING OF BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. AS
SUCH...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IS LOW.
GFS ENSEMBLE ALSO SHOWS THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME PERIOD WITH
DEFINITE PHASE PROBLEMS WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS.

DESPITE MODEL DETAIL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...TRIED TO FIND SOME
COMMON GROUND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE SYSTEMS THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA.

MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD COMBINED
WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BUILD MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE
LOOKS TO TRY AND ACT ON MOISTURE RETURN FRIDAY...BUT AVAILABLE LIFT
AND MOISTURE ONLY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AT BEST AS CAP
AROUND H7 LOOKS TO HOLD FIRM.

GFS/ECMWF AGREE IN BRIEF MID LEVEL RIDGING FOR SATURDAY WITH A
SOMEWHAT MORE PHASED TROF POISED TO MAKE AN ATTEMPT THROUGH THE
AREA BY SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO SPRING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL HAVE ERODED THE
WARM/DRY MID LEVELS BY NOW WITH DEEPER CONVECTION LOOKING MORE
LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY IN INCREASED
CONVERGENCE ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY./26/

&&

.CLIMATE...

STATION//4/16 FORECAST LOW//DAILY RECORD(DATE)//LATEST FREEZE

JAN    //       31        //     33 (1983)    //  4/25/1910
MEI    //       28        //     32 (2007)    //  4/25/1910
GLH    //       33        //     32 (1926)    //  4/16/1926
GWO    //       29        //     35 (2007)    //  4/15/2008
TVR    //       31        //     33 (2007)    //  4/21/1953
HBG    //       33        //     34 (1950)    //  4/15/1950

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       56  31  64  42 /   0   0   0   5
MERIDIAN      56  28  66  40 /   6   0   0   6
VICKSBURG     57  31  64  41 /   0   0   0   2
HATTIESBURG   58  33  67  42 /   7   0   0   7
NATCHEZ       57  30  63  43 /   0   0   0   4
GREENVILLE    54  33  64  43 /   0   0   0   2
GREENWOOD     54  29  64  42 /   0   0   0   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>066.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MSZ072>074.

LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-
     015-016-023>026.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

22/17/BB/26










000
FXUS64 KJAN 150923
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
420 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

...UNSEASONABLY CHILLY SPRING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND A BIT
OF LEFTOVER DRIZZLE ARE TAKING THEIR TIME EXITING THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH PLOWED THROUGH THE REGION LATE
YESTERDAY ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS. BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL
ASSUREDLY DEPART THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT QUICKLY ENOUGH
TO BEAT THE RISING SUN ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE
DAY BEHIND THE EXITING CLOUDS THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE STARTLINGLY
CHILLY...MADE WORSE BY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN NORTHERN
ZONES TO THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN ZONES. A WIND ADVISORY WAS
BRIEFLY DEBATED FOR TODAY...BUT GUSTS AND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA GENERALLY AND WILL BE HANDLED IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICS.

THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE RELAXING RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS
THE BOTTOM END OF THE RESPONSIBLE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SINKS DOWN
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR AND THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL EFFICIENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN
MOST CASES AND THIS WAS DEEMED SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING GIVEN THE LATE CALENDER
DATE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE WARNING WAS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 98
CORRIDOR IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN MS WHERE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT WHETHER WINDS COULD STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH FROST
OR FREEZING TEMPS. SO IN THAT AREA A FREEZE WATCH WAS ISSUED AND THE
NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO DECIDE WHETHER TO FLIP THIS OVER TO A
WARNING BASED UPON THE LATEST MODEL DATA.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS THANKFULLY WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL SOME 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN TERMS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES. WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOME HIGHER CLOUDS FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE
DETERRENTS TO REACHING MAXIMUM WARMING POTENTIAL.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SUBTLE LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEEPENS AND APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS
STATES. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD GET
ITS ACT TOGETHER ENOUGH BY LATE IN THE NIGHT TO BRING SOME LOW
CLOUDS INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BY DAWN THURSDAY...BUT CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL BE VERY LOW AND TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW
NORMAL. /BB/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH A GENERAL SUBTLENESS TO
THE ENERGIES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
THIS PATTERN IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...BUT DIFFERENCES ABOUND IN THE
TIMING OF BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. AS
SUCH...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IS LOW.
GFS ENSEMBLE ALSO SHOWS THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME PERIOD WITH
DEFINITE PHASE PROBLEMS WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS.

DESPITE MODEL DETAIL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES...TRIED TO FIND SOME
COMMON GROUND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE SYSTEMS THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA.

MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD COMBINED
WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BUILD MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE
LOOKS TO TRY AND ACT ON MOISTURE RETURN FRIDAY...BUT AVAILABLE LIFT
AND MOISTURE ONLY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AT BEST AS CAP
AROUND H7 LOOKS TO HOLD FIRM.

GFS/ECMWF AGREE IN BRIEF MID LEVEL RIDGING FOR SATURDAY WITH A
SOMEWHAT MORE PHASED TROF POISED TO MAKE AN ATTEMPT THROUGH THE
AREA BY SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO SPRING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL HAVE ERODED THE
WARM/DRY MID LEVELS BY NOW WITH DEEPER CONVECTION LOOKING MORE
LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY IN INCREASED
CONVERGENCE ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY./26/

&&

.CLIMATE...

STATION//4/16 FORECAST LOW//DAILY RECORD(DATE)//LATEST FREEZE

JAN    //       31        //     33 (1983)    //  4/25/1910
MEI    //       28        //     32 (2007)    //  4/25/1910
GLH    //       33        //     32 (1926)    //  4/16/1926
GWO    //       29        //     35 (2007)    //  4/15/2008
TVR    //       31        //     33 (2007)    //  4/21/1953
HBG    //       33        //     34 (1950)    //  4/15/1950

&&

.AVIATION...LOWER CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ARE TAKING
THEIR TIME CLEARING THE AERODROME FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE YESTERDAY. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO BE
IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH 10 AM...OF COURSE LATEST AT
NMM/MEI/PIB/HBG. BY LATE MORNING AND CERTAINLY EARLY AFTERNOON SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE OTHER THING TO CONTEND WITH WILL BE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT BUT SOME MORNING FROST
ON PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING MAY BE A HINDRANCE. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       56  31  64  42 /   2   0   0   5
MERIDIAN      56  28  66  40 /  10   0   0   6
VICKSBURG     57  31  64  41 /   0   0   0   2
HATTIESBURG   58  33  67  42 /  11   0   0   7
NATCHEZ       57  30  63  43 /   0   0   0   4
GREENVILLE    54  33  64  43 /   0   0   0   2
GREENWOOD     54  29  64  42 /   0   0   0   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>066.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MSZ072>074.

LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-
     015-016-023>026.

AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

BB/26







000
FXUS64 KJAN 150303
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1003 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN AND ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOODING HAS ENDED AND HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT
THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF RIVER FLOODING TO CONTEND WITH
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS POST-
FRONTAL WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH. GIVEN THE RAIN- SOAKED GROUND
CONDITIONS...TREES WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FALLING AND HAVE
RESENT THE PREVIOUS SPS CONVEYING THIS CONCERN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND THE WELL-
ADVERTISED FREEZE IS ON TRACK. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
IS ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE HELPS TRIGGER
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE MOST CONDUCIVE AIR MASS FOR
SEVERE STORMS HAS BEEN SEQUESTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
PARISHES AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. THESE AREAS WERE NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BY THE COLD POOL FROM MORNING CONVECTION.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...AIR MASS RECOVERY HAS
BEEN A RELATIVELY SLOW PROCESS. AT THIS POINT...SURFACE WINDS IN THIS
AREA HAVE TURNED BACK AROUND TO SOUTHEASTERLY BUT DEWPOINTS ARE
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID 60S. GIVEN A MORE MARGINAL AIR
MASS...THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO MAINTAIN SEVERITY AS
THEY MOVE FARTHER EAST THIS EVENING UNLESS ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION
TAKES PLACE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT IT IS
DECREASINGLY LIKELY AS STORMS MOVE FARTHER EAST.

FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A PRIMARY CONCERN. DUAL POL STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS INDICATE LOCALIZED SPOTS IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
MAY HAVE SEEN UP TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH STILL MORE TO COME.
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF I-20...WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH TOTALS HAVE BEEN
SEEN. ADDITIONAL RAIN IN THESE AREAS WILL AGGRAVATE EXISTING FLASH
FLOODING AND COULD LEAD TO NEW FLOODING. SO FAR THERE HAVE BEEN
FEWER ISSUES SOUTH OF I-20...WHERE MOST AREAS HAVE SEEN LESS THAN 2
INCHES OF RAIN. HOWEVER PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING COULD CREATE FLOODING ISSUES TONIGHT. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 6Z.

THE SURFACE FRONT HAS ALREADY REACHED A JONESVILLE TO TALLULAH TO
GREENWOOD LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS
THROUGH THE EVENING. ALONG THE FRONT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF GRADIENT
WINDS OF AROUND 40 MPH IS LIKELY...AND MOST ASOS/AWOS SITES HAVE BEEN
INDICATING GUSTS AROUND THIS MAGNITUDE. WITH THE SOIL SATURATED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...SOME TREES COULD BE PUSHED OVER THIS EVENING
DUE TO NON-THUNDERSTORM GUSTS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER
OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI DURING THE OVERNIGHT. IT WILL TURN MUCH COOLER
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIPPING INTO THE 30S BY MORNING IN MANY AREAS WEST
OF I-55. THE PERSISTENT GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE A FROST THREAT
IN THESE LOCATIONS TONIGHT. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY TOMORROW...AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PART OF THE
AREA. GIVEN THE CURRENT PLETHORA OF PRODUCTS ALREADY IN EFFECT...WILL
DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS TO DETERMINE WHETHER THIS IS NEEDED.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOMORROW AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE FOCUS TURNS TO FREEZE/HARD FREEZE POTENTIAL TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ONLY ADDS TO
OUR CONFIDENCE THAT MANY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE A FREEZE...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE A HARD FREEZE
IS POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN HWO/GRAPHICAST
PRODUCTS AND FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER NPW PRODUCTS. /DL/

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE A TRANSITION TIME AS ZONAL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWEST. JET ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW A
MID LEVEL TROF TO DIG OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY
THURSDAY. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION LOOKS TO MOISTEN THE REGION ENOUGH FOR
SHOWERS TO BEGIN BREAKING OUT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
PULLS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.

GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM HERE. ECMWF RESOLVES A
POTENT SRN STREAM MID LEVEL WAVE THAT GENERATES A LARGE CONVECTIVE
MASS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND PUSHES EAST INTO FL BY SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE GULF FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH. AM SOMEWHAT LEARY OF THIS SOLUTION.

WHILE THE GFS ALSO RESOLVES A SOUTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY THAT
IGNITES CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY...IT KEEPS THE MID MS
VALLEY WAVE DOMINANT AND STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY...IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEELS OF EXITING
SYSTEM...LOOKS TO MAKE A PASS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE
LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT HAVE HAD ENOUGH TIME
TO RECOVER FROM THE SCOURING OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM./26/

&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...IT HAS PASSED GLH
AND IS NEAR GWO...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND CLEAR KHBG
AROUND 06Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST AND GUST TO 25-35 KT AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       43  56  32  64 /  48   5   0   0
MERIDIAN      47  57  27  68 /  85   6   0   0
VICKSBURG     41  60  31  66 /  24   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   49  59  32  67 /  86   4   0   0
NATCHEZ       39  57  30  66 /  27   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    36  55  33  63 /  23   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     37  57  30  64 /  32   1   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 142108
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
408 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
IS ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE HELPS TRIGGER
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE MOST CONDUCIVE AIR MASS FOR
SEVERE STORMS HAS BEEN SEQUESTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
PARISHES AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. THESE AREAS WERE NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BY THE COLD POOL FROM MORNING CONVECTION.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...AIR MASS RECOVERY HAS
BEEN A RELATIVELY SLOW PROCESS. AT THIS POINT...SURFACE WINDS IN THIS
AREA HAVE TURNED BACK AROUND TO SOUTHEASTERLY BUT DEWPOINTS ARE
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID 60S. GIVEN A MORE MARGINAL AIR
MASS...THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO MAINTAIN SEVERITY AS
THEY MOVE FARTHER EAST THIS EVENING UNLESS ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION
TAKES PLACE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT IT IS
DECREASINGLY LIKELY AS STORMS MOVE FARTHER EAST.

FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A PRIMARY CONCERN. DUAL POL STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS INDICATE LOCALIZED SPOTS IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
MAY HAVE SEEN UP TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH STILL MORE TO COME.
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF I-20...WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH TOTALS HAVE BEEN
SEEN. ADDITIONAL RAIN IN THESE AREAS WILL AGGRAVATE EXISTING FLASH
FLOODING AND COULD LEAD TO NEW FLOODING. SO FAR THERE HAVE BEEN
FEWER ISSUES SOUTH OF I-20...WHERE MOST AREAS HAVE SEEN LESS THAN 2
INCHES OF RAIN. HOWEVER PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING COULD CREATE FLOODING ISSUES TONIGHT. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 6Z.

THE SURFACE FRONT HAS ALREADY REACHED A JONESVILLE TO TALLULAH TO
GREENWOOD LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS
THROUGH THE EVENING. ALONG THE FRONT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF GRADIENT
WINDS OF AROUND 40 MPH IS LIKELY...AND MOST ASOS/AWOS SITES HAVE BEEN
INDICATING GUSTS AROUND THIS MAGNITUDE. WITH THE SOIL SATURATED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...SOME TREES COULD BE PUSHED OVER THIS EVENING
DUE TO NON-THUNDERSTORM GUSTS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER
OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI DURING THE OVERNIGHT. IT WILL TURN MUCH COOLER
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIPPING INTO THE 30S BY MORNING IN MANY AREAS WEST
OF I-55. THE PERSISTENT GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE A FROST THREAT
IN THESE LOCATIONS TONIGHT. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY TOMORROW...AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PART OF THE
AREA. GIVEN THE CURRENT PLETHORA OF PRODUCTS ALREADY IN EFFECT...WILL
DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS TO DETERMINE WHETHER THIS IS NEEDED.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOMORROW AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE FOCUS TURNS TO FREEZE/HARD FREEZE POTENTIAL TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ONLY ADDS TO
OUR CONFIDENCE THAT MANY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE A FREEZE...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE A HARD FREEZE
IS POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN HWO/GRAPHICAST
PRODUCTS AND FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER NPW PRODUCTS. /DL/

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE A TRANSITION TIME AS ZONAL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWEST. JET ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW A
MID LEVEL TROF TO DIG OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY
THURSDAY. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION LOOKS TO MOISTEN THE REGION ENOUGH FOR
SHOWERS TO BEGIN BREAKING OUT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
PULLS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.

GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM HERE. ECMWF RESOLVES A
POTENT SRN STREAM MID LEVEL WAVE THAT GENERATES A LARGE CONVECTIVE
MASS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND PUSHES EAST INTO FL BY SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE GULF FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH. AM SOMEWHAT LEARY OF THIS SOLUTION.

WHILE THE GFS ALSO RESOLVES A SOUTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY THAT
IGNITES CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY...IT KEEPS THE MID MS
VALLEY WAVE DOMINANT AND STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY...IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEELS OF EXITING
SYSTEM...LOOKS TO MAKE A PASS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE
LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT HAVE HAD ENOUGH TIME
TO RECOVER FROM THE SCOURING OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM./26/

&&

.AVIATION...

CIGS AND VSBY WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 06Z AS STORMS PASS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...IT HAS PASSED GLH AND IS NEAR GWO...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AND CLEAR KHBG AROUND 06Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST AND
GUST TO 25-35 KT AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY. /SW/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       43  56  32  64 /  80   5   0   0
MERIDIAN      47  57  27  68 /  92   6   0   0
VICKSBURG     41  60  31  66 /  53   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   49  59  32  67 /  92   4   0   0
NATCHEZ       39  57  30  66 /  62   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    36  55  33  63 /  43   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     37  57  30  64 /  63   1   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ027>033-035>066-
     072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/SW/EC/26






000
FXUS64 KJAN 141540 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1040 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN MUCH LESS POTENT SINCE PUSHING SOUTH OF I-20 EARLIER THIS
MORNING...BUT IT HAS SPREAD A COLD POOL WELL SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
NEVERTHELESS. THERE HAS BEEN NEWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS DELTA...WITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY RAIN TRAINING ACROSS THAT AREA. LOOKING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
A WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS SW MISSISSIPPI
WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 70F AND
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. RIGHT NOW THIS
KEEPS THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE LIMITED TO SOUTHERN/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW...ALBEIT WEAKER
THAN OVERNIGHT...IS WORKING ON THIS COLD POOL AND WILL LIKELY ALLOW
THE WARM SECTOR TO EXPAND BACK INTO PORTIONS OF THE DELTA AND
WESTERN MS HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE COLD POOL WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY. AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL BE
THE TIME FRAME WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION.

WITH RESPECT TO THE FLOODING SITUATION...ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
REPORTS OF OVER 4 INCHES OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS HAS LED
TO FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WARREN...MADISON...HINDS...AND
RANKIN COUNTIES. OUR BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER 1-2
INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD OBVIOUSLY FURTHER AGITATE THE CURRENT
FLOODING SITUATION...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD
WATCH CONFIGURATION.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT OUT. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS AND VSBY WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 06Z AS
STORMS PASS ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WILL NEED TO AMEND FREQUENTLY TO
HANDLE MESOSCALE WIND SHIFTS AND STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SITES STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT KGLH AND CLEARING
KHBG AROUND 06Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST AND GUST TO 25-35 KT
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /SW/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE MUCH-DISCUSSED COLD FRONT WILL COME BLASTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND WINDS
KICKING UP A GOOD DEAL FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT IS POSSIBLE A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER BUT WITH ALL THE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
WILL DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS TO ISSUE THIS IF NEEDED. TEMPERATURES BY
7 TO 8 AM TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH PLENTY OF WIND TO CREATE A WIND CHILL.
FORTUNATELY NO FROST IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG WINDS.

FOR TOMORROW MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL
QUICKLY EXIT EAST INTO THE ALABAMA AFTER SUNRISE BUT EXPECT SOME
PATCHY COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NOT HITTING 60 DEGREES
IN ANY AREAS...WHICH IS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WINDS
WILL DIE OFF TOMORROW NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY BOTTOM-OUT IN A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S BY DAWN WEDNESDAY. OF COURSE THIS WILL MEAN AN
UNSEASONABLY LATE FREEZE AND THIS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO AND
GRAPHICS. /BB/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE A TRANSITION TIME AS ZONAL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST.
JET ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW A MID LEVEL
TROF TO DIG OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY.
WARM/MOIST  ADVECTION LOOKS TO MOISTEN THE REGION ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS
TO BEGIN BREAKING OUT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PULLS
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.

GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM HERE. ECMWF RESOLVES A
POTENT SRN STREAM MID LEVEL WAVE THAT GENERATES A LARGE CONVECTIVE
MASS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND PUSHES EAST INTO FL BY SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE GULF FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH. AM SOMEWHAT LEARY OF THIS SOLUTION.

WHILE THE GFS ALSO RESOLVES A SOUTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY THAT
IGNITES CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY...IT KEEPS THE MID MS
VALLEY WAVE DOMINANT AND STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY...IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEELS OF EXITING
SYSTEM...LOOKS TO MAKE A PASS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE
LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT HAVE HAD ENOUGH TIME
TO RECOVER FROM THE SCOURING OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM./26/

&&

.CLIMATE...

STATION//4/16 FORECAST LOW//DAILY RECORD(DATE)//LATEST FREEZE

JAN    //       32        //     33 (1983)    //  4/25/1910
MEI    //       28        //     32 (2007)    //  4/25/1910
GLH    //       33        //     32 (1926)    //  4/16/1926
GWO    //       29        //     35 (2007)    //  4/15/2008
TVR    //       30        //     33 (2007)    //  4/21/1953
HBG    //       32        //     34 (1950)    //  4/15/1950

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MSZ027>033-035>066-
     072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR LAZ009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/SW/BB/26







000
FXUS64 KJAN 140950
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
445 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

...POTENT THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG MID
APRIL COLD FRONT IS PRESSING INTO THE ARKLATEX EARLY THIS MORNING
WHILE A COMBINATION OF GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY IS
PRODUCING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HEART OF THE ARKLAMISS.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SINKING SOUTH TOWARD I-20 THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND HAS THUS FAR NOT BEEN GENERATING A GREAT DEAL OF SEVERE WEATHER.
BUT IT HAS BEEN DUMPING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS EVIDENCED BY
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS DELTA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

LATEST SUITE OF HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED
CONVECTION CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTH TOWARD I-20 WILL BECOME MORE
LINEARLY-ORIENTED AND CONTINUE ITS STEADY PUSH SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS GENERAL
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ALSO DEPICTS DEEPER COLD POOLS PENETRATING
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS TRENDING IN
THAT MANNER. ALL THIS NEW INFORMATION THROWS DOUBT ON WHETHER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ZONES WILL FULLY DESTABILIZE AGAIN FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD DEFINITELY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
THERE. THERE IS EVEN SOME MODEL SUGGESTION THAT THE MOST VIGOROUS
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL FIRE UP NEAR THE COAST...WHICH COULD
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN ZONES AS WELL (ALTHOUGH THIS IS A
MORE IFFY PROSPECT).

BUT THE ABOVE-MENTIONED NEGATIVE FACTORS FOR SEVERE STORM FORMATION
IN OUR AREA LATER TODAY WILL NOT KEEP MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
FORMING AFTER MORNING ACTIVITY WANES. EXPECT OVERRUNNING OF THE
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNING (AND ALSO IMPETUS FROM THE
INCOMING COLD FRONT) TO KICK UP MORE CONVECTION ASSUREDLY...AND WE
WILL STILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD BE ENHANCED
IN SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL
POSSIBLY MEET WITH SURFACE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. THE GOING FLASH
FLOOD WATCH INTO THIS EVENING FOR ALL AREAS ASIDE FROM SOME OF THE
ARKLAMISS DELTA WILL BE KEPT INTACT...BUT THE HWO AND GRAPHICS WILL
WORK TO FOCUS SEVERE POTENTIAL MORE STRONGLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

THE MUCH-DISCUSSED COLD FRONT WILL COME BLASTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING OFF SHARPLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND WINDS
KICKING UP A GOOD DEAL FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT IS POSSIBLE A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER BUT WITH ALL THE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING
WILL DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS TO ISSUE THIS IF NEEDED. TEMPERATURES BY
7 TO 8 AM TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE CHILLY UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO
MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH PLENTY OF WIND TO CREATE A WIND CHILL.
FORTUNATELY NO FROST IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG WINDS.

FOR TOMORROW MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL
QUICKLY EXIT EAST INTO THE ALABAMA AFTER SUNRISE BUT EXPECT SOME
PATCHY COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NOT HITTING 60 DEGREES
IN ANY AREAS...WHICH IS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WINDS
WILL DIE OFF TOMORROW NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY BOTTOM-OUT IN A RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S BY DAWN WEDNESDAY. OF COURSE THIS WILL MEAN AN
UNSEASONABLY LATE FREEZE AND THIS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO AND
GRAPHICS. /BB/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE A TRANSITION TIME AS ZONAL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWEST. JET ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW A
MID LEVEL TROF TO DIG OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY
THURSDAY. WARM/MOIST  ADVECTION LOOKS TO MOISTEN THE REGION ENOUGH
FOR SHOWERS TO BEGIN BREAKING OUT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT PULLS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.

GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM HERE. ECMWF RESOLVES A
POTENT SRN STREAM MID LEVEL WAVE THAT GENERATES A LARGE CONVECTIVE
MASS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND PUSHES EAST INTO FL BY SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE GULF FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH. AM SOMEWHAT LEARY OF THIS SOLUTION.

WHILE THE GFS ALSO RESOLVES A SOUTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY THAT
IGNITES CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY...IT KEEPS THE MID MS
VALLEY WAVE DOMINANT AND STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY...IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEELS OF EXITING
SYSTEM...LOOKS TO MAKE A PASS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE
LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT HAVE HAD ENOUGH TIME
TO RECOVER FROM THE SCOURING OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM./26/

&&

.CLIMATE...

STATION//4/16 FORECAST LOW//DAILY RECORD(DATE)//LATEST FREEZE

JAN    //       32        //     33 (1983)    //  4/25/1910
MEI    //       28        //     32 (2007)    //  4/25/1910
GLH    //       33        //     32 (1926)    //  4/16/1926
GWO    //       29        //     35 (2007)    //  4/15/2008
TVR    //       30        //     33 (2007)    //  4/21/1953
HBG    //       32        //     34 (1950)    //  4/15/1950

&&

.AVIATION...SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ALIGNED NEAR THE I-20 AT 10Z
WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH TOWARD PIB/HBG THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL ANTICIPATED AROUND THE ENTIRE
AERODROME THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE MENTIONED CURRENT
CONVECTION NEAR I-20 IS MAKING WINDS IN A WIDE AREA QUITE
ERRATIC...BUT IN MOST AREAS THEY SHOULD TREND TOWARD SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LITTLE GUSTY UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST STRONGLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL CONTINUE SOMEWHAT GUSTY INTO LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. FLIGHT
CATS TODAY WILL BE MVFR MAINLY...WITH IFR CONDITIONS ENCOUNTERED IN
AREAS OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       77  40  55  32 /  88  76   8   0
MERIDIAN      77  42  57  28 /  91  99  15   0
VICKSBURG     76  40  58  30 /  90  54   4   0
HATTIESBURG   82  44  58  32 /  91  96  15   0
NATCHEZ       77  38  55  31 /  90  52   3   0
GREENVILLE    70  35  55  33 /  82  48   3   0
GREENWOOD     72  36  54  29 /  81  63   6   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MSZ027>033-035>066-
     072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR LAZ009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/26







000
FXUS64 KJAN 140303
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1003 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...

EVENING AREA RAOB ANALYSES REVEAL PLUME OF VERY RICH GULF MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO SURGE INLAND OVER LA AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR INDICATED BY
JAN/LIX SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF MOISTENING STILL NEEDS TO TAKE
PLACE. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING THAT MOISTURE/
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY FOR A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS LATE TONIGHT
AND BRING A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND EVENTUALLY FLOODING AS
THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM STALLS. IT SEEMS TO BE LOCKING
ONTO AN AREA ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR FROM NEAR RAYVILLE TO JACKSON
FOR HEAVIEST BAND OF RAINFALL (PERHAPS UP TO AROUND 5 INCHES BY EARLY
MORNING)...WHICH COULD HAPPEN GIVEN VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES
AND INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW IN EXIT REGION OF
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST AND WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION THE SAME FOR
NOW. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

.PERIODS OF POTENT STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED STARTING LATE
TONIGHT...

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

BUSY FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHTED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND SOME HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT..FOLLOWED
BY THE POTENTIAL FOR A MID APRIL FREEZE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA TUE NIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED AND WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE DELTA INTO THIS EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...THE EVENING WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS CLOUDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF A DIGGING SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE ARKLAMISS TONIGHT...CONCURRENT WITH A NORTHWARD SURGING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TONGUE. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS WE HEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT...SPREADING EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY ON THE LEADING EDGE TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
WHILE LAPSE RATES AREN`T TERRIFIC WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL...LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
HELP ORGANIZE SOME UPDRAFTS AND YIELD A NOCTURNAL DAMAGING WIND AND
TORNADO RISK. CURRENT AREAS HIGHLIGHTED WITH THE GREATEST RISK IN
THE INHERITED HWO/GRAPHICS LOOK GOOD AND WILL KEEP AS IS. THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PASS OFF TO THE EAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

REST OF THE DAY MONDAY...LIKE WE`VE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING...THERE LOOKS
TO BE A LULL IN THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER.
BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON STOUT HEIGHT FALLS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL INVIGORATE CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
HAVE SHUNTED EAST BY THIS TIME...SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG FORCING WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW A DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL RISK TO DEVELOP. AND ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO RISK WILL BE
LOWER THAN TONIGHT...ITS STILL NON-ZERO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY SHOULD BE REALIZED. ONCE
AGAIN...I`M NOT SURE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THESE
HAZARDS WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IS NEEDED AND WILL KEEP THINGS AS IS. BY
MID TO LATE EVENING THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING THE COLD FRONT
PASSING EAST OF THE AREA BRINGING THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO AN END.

AS FOR THE HEAVY RAINS...THE 12Z NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A SWATH OF
1.5-2.5 IN EXTENDING FROM VKS TO CBM WITH LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE THROUGH TUE MORNING. 12Z EURO HAS MORE OF A
WIDESPREAD 1.5-2 IN ACROSS THE FA WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS
EASTERN MS. LOCAL WRF SHOWS HIGHEST SWATHS OF PRECIP (GREATER THAN 2
IN) ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH ON
JUST WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL COME IN...IT DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MOST PROBABLE AREAS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TRACE
AND HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS STARTING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MON NIGHT. WHILE THE LARGER SCALE MODELS
ARE HESITANT SHOWING MUCH MORE THAN 1 TO PERHAPS 2.5
INCHES...CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY LEAD TO HIGHER AMOUNTS IN CERTAIN
AREAS. THIS WILL EASILY POSE A FLASH FLOOD RISK IF THESE HEAVIER
SWATHS FALL IN VICINITY OF ALREADY SWOLLEN CREEKS AND RIVERS.

THE RAINS LOOK TO FINALLY PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY TUE MORNING
WITH DRY AIR FILTERING IN. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE NEED FOR A
WIND ADVISORY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. WE`LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON
THAT SITUATION.

CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE WED MORNING SETTING UP
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEFINITELY
HAVE A CHANCE TO FALL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO. A LATE SEASON FREEZE
WARNING MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME. STAY TUNED. /BK/

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

CONDITIONS WILL THANKFULLY BE WARMING UP ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL PROBABLY TAKE UNTIL THURSDAY TO MAKE IT BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF APRIL. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOME
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY AGAIN DIGS A BIT
BACK TO OUR WEST.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL AND A FAIR NUMBER OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
STILL SEEM TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN RESOLVING THIS NEXT BATCH OF
INCOMING TROUGH ENERGY IN SIZABLE RAIN CHANCES OVER AN EXTENDED
PERIOD FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONVERSELY...THE MORE
TRUSTWORTHY LONG RANGE MODEL PERFORMER WHICH IS THE EUROPEAN MODEL
IS NOT IS NOT SO GUNG HO. PART OF THE REASON (BEYOND PAST
PERFORMANCE LOGIC) TO THINK THE EURO HAS THE RIGHT IDEA IS THAT THE
INCOMING TROUGH SEEMS TO BE LOOSELY LINKED TO A GLOBAL EQUATORIAL
OSCILLATION AND TRIGGERING A BULK OF CONVECTION AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. FOR NOW I CUT BACK
MEX (GFS-BASED) POPS ALTHOUGH STILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN
IN PLAY.

BEYOND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THE FORECAST LOOKS MORE MUDDLED INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH CONFLICTING MODEL SIGNALS. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND TO COME AROUND WITH NO
PROSPECT OF INCLEMENT WEATHER. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  73  42  54 / 100 100  63   4
MERIDIAN      64  78  47  59 /  79 100  82  11
VICKSBURG     66  75  40  56 / 100 100  48   0
HATTIESBURG   66  80  50  60 /  76 100  73  11
NATCHEZ       67  76  37  53 / 100 100  45   3
GREENVILLE    67  68  37  53 / 100 100  43   0
GREENWOOD     67  70  38  54 / 100 100  56   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR MSZ027>033-035>066-072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR LAZ009-015-016-023>026.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$









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