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000
FXUS64 KJAN 301529
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1029 AM CDT SAT APRIL 30 2016

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...SHOWED AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW TO
MIDLEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN KS.  IT WAS SENDING SHORTWAVES IN
THE SOUTHERN STREAM INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET WAS NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH WAS
PROVIDING UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE WEST. AREA SNDINGS SHOW SOME
LAPSE RATES IN THE MIDLEVELS...WHICH WERE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
YESTERDAY. THERE WAS ALSO DESCENT LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF AROUND 35-40
KNOTS. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE DELTA
REGION. HRRR AND AREA OBS SHOWS THAT A "WAKE LOW" MAY BE DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE RAIN OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SITE ELD AND LLQ HAD OF
AROUND 35 KNOTS OF WIND. THE HRRR BRINGS THE WAKE LOW INTO THE
REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LINE. SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
THAT. THERE HAVE BEEN WIND REPORTS FROM AR. OTHERWISE DESPITE THE
LULL IN THE CONVECTION EXPECT THE AIRMASS INSTABILITY TO DESTABILIZE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR STILL BRINGS AN ORGANIZED LINE
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
MAKE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST AND WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. SO WILL KEEP OUR PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISKS FOR
TODAY./17/

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
GLH...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TO MOVE INTO GWO BEFORE NOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REMAINING SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO A MILE OR
LESS. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA ALSO...MVFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

IN ADDITION...RAPID ONSET GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR GLH
BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 40KTS OR HIGHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&
./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...452 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THIS WEEKEND)...A RATHER WET AND STORMY WEEKEND IS ON
TAP AS A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDS. EARLY THIS
MORNING, A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY/PURCHASE REGION SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX INTO
SE TEXAS. THIS WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE SWINGING INTO THE MIDSOUTH. THE MOST
VIGOROUS CONVECTION ALONG THE LINE IS ONGOING OVER EAST TX AND WEST
LA, AND THIS IS WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS OUR
AREA LATER ON TODAY AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD.

CURRENT TRENDS/CONSENSUS AMONG HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO REACH OUR NE LA PARISHES AROUND MID-MORNING. WITH THIS
TIME FRAME STILL BEING ON THE DOWNSIDE OF THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY
CURVE, THE STORMS ARE GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS ACTIVE AT
THAT POINT. HOWEVER, THROUGH THE DAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE LINE, STRENGTHENING/REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES EASTWARD. HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS TO SPREAD FARTHER NORTH ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AS
THERE IS MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR DAYTIME HEATING. THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE
IN STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS ACROSS THE DELTA, WHERE RAIN WILL LIKELY
BEGIN EARLY IN THE DAY WITH LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR DESTABILIZATION.
WITH THIS IN MIND, FOR GRAPHICS/HWO THE ELEVATED WILL BE REMOVED IN
THE WEST AND THE LIMITED WILL BE EXPANDED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. IF IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT THE LINE WILL BE MORE ACTIVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AN ELEVATED THREAT MAY NEED TO
BE INTRODUCED LATER TODAY. TIMING WILL ALSO BE BUMPED UP, AS THE
LINE MAY BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT, THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORMS THAT PUSH THROUGH TODAY. SOME REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT, BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS MOST OF THAT WILL REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA IN ARKANSAS. THE FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY, WITH REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT
INSOLATION, INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/
SEVERE CONVECTION TOMORROW, BUT FORCING AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
MUCH WEAKER, MAKING THIS THREAT MORE UNCERTAIN. WITH THAT IN MIND, NO
THREAT WILL BE INTRODUCED IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE SHIFT IN EXPECTATIONS FROM THE AXIS OF MORE ACTIVE STORMS
AND HEAVY RAIN BEING OVER THE DELTA FARTHER SOUTH TO ACROSS CENTRAL
LA AND SOUTH MS, THAT ALSO SHIFTS EXPECTATIONS FOR THE FLOODING
THREAT. THOUGH MUCH OF THE DELTA MAY MISS OUT ON THE HEAVIEST RAIN,
PRECIP IS JUST BEGINNING TO ARRIVE IN THAT AREA, AND WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE LINE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THUS, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THAT AREA, BUT WE WILL LOWER
EXPECTED AMOUNTS. PERHAPS OF GREATER CONCERN IS AREAS FARTHER SOUTH
FROM CENTRAL LA ACROSS SOUTH MS. IN THESE AREAS, THERE WILL ALSO BE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. IF MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION, LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MAKE
AN EASTWARD EXTENSION TO THE WATCH INTO THE PINE BELT. FOR NOW, WE
WILL EXTEND A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE HWO
INTO SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. /DL/

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)...THE PERIOD OF ACTIVE
WEATHER WE ARE CURRENTLY IN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
MONDAY MORNING...ONE WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPART
WITH ANOTHER ON OUR DOORSTEP TO THE WEST. RAIN AND STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE ARKLAMISS REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS SHOULD BE THE
FINAL ROUND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL COME AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT
ACTUALLY MOVING INTO THE REGION SLOWLY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AS WELL BY WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN GIVEN HOWEVER MUCH
RAIN MAY FALL PRECEDING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
TRICKY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HAMPER MUCH
WARMING AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO MAKE FOR A
VARIATION IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE AREA.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AND THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO SWINGS THROUGH...
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY...THIS WILL LEAVE OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WE SHOULD SEE READINGS
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...SHOULD BE
SOME NICE WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND ONCE WE GET THROUGH SOME OF THE WET WEATHER IN THE SHORTER
TERM. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A LINE OF
SHRA/TSRA PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/
AFTERNOON HOURS. BRIEF VISBY CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
+RA, AND 50 KT WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE ALONG WITH
SMALL HAIL. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT, WITH MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT TO NW AT SITES IN THE DELTA SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       79  67  82  65 /  94  59  53  49
MERIDIAN      82  66  81  64 /  86  43  68  27
VICKSBURG     79  69  83  66 /  94  49  43  58
HATTIESBURG   82  66  82  66 /  95  55  70  29
NATCHEZ       80  67  81  66 /  95  59  62  54
GREENVILLE    79  66  82  63 /  60  30  23  50
GREENWOOD     78  66  82  63 /  57  40  29  49

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035-040-041.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR MSZ026>029-032-036-037-042>044-047>050-053>055-
     059>063.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR LAZ024>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

17/DL/28





000
FXUS64 KJAN 301529
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1029 AM CDT SAT APRIL 30 2016

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...SHOWED AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW TO
MIDLEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN KS.  IT WAS SENDING SHORTWAVES IN
THE SOUTHERN STREAM INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET WAS NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH WAS
PROVIDING UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE WEST. AREA SNDINGS SHOW SOME
LAPSE RATES IN THE MIDLEVELS...WHICH WERE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
YESTERDAY. THERE WAS ALSO DESCENT LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF AROUND 35-40
KNOTS. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE DELTA
REGION. HRRR AND AREA OBS SHOWS THAT A "WAKE LOW" MAY BE DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE RAIN OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SITE ELD AND LLQ HAD OF
AROUND 35 KNOTS OF WIND. THE HRRR BRINGS THE WAKE LOW INTO THE
REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LINE. SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
THAT. THERE HAVE BEEN WIND REPORTS FROM AR. OTHERWISE DESPITE THE
LULL IN THE CONVECTION EXPECT THE AIRMASS INSTABILITY TO DESTABILIZE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR STILL BRINGS AN ORGANIZED LINE
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
MAKE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST AND WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. SO WILL KEEP OUR PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISKS FOR
TODAY./17/

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
GLH...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TO MOVE INTO GWO BEFORE NOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REMAINING SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO A MILE OR
LESS. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA ALSO...MVFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

IN ADDITION...RAPID ONSET GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR GLH
BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 40KTS OR HIGHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&
./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...452 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THIS WEEKEND)...A RATHER WET AND STORMY WEEKEND IS ON
TAP AS A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDS. EARLY THIS
MORNING, A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY/PURCHASE REGION SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX INTO
SE TEXAS. THIS WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE SWINGING INTO THE MIDSOUTH. THE MOST
VIGOROUS CONVECTION ALONG THE LINE IS ONGOING OVER EAST TX AND WEST
LA, AND THIS IS WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS OUR
AREA LATER ON TODAY AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD.

CURRENT TRENDS/CONSENSUS AMONG HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO REACH OUR NE LA PARISHES AROUND MID-MORNING. WITH THIS
TIME FRAME STILL BEING ON THE DOWNSIDE OF THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY
CURVE, THE STORMS ARE GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS ACTIVE AT
THAT POINT. HOWEVER, THROUGH THE DAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE LINE, STRENGTHENING/REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES EASTWARD. HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS TO SPREAD FARTHER NORTH ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AS
THERE IS MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR DAYTIME HEATING. THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE
IN STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS ACROSS THE DELTA, WHERE RAIN WILL LIKELY
BEGIN EARLY IN THE DAY WITH LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR DESTABILIZATION.
WITH THIS IN MIND, FOR GRAPHICS/HWO THE ELEVATED WILL BE REMOVED IN
THE WEST AND THE LIMITED WILL BE EXPANDED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. IF IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT THE LINE WILL BE MORE ACTIVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AN ELEVATED THREAT MAY NEED TO
BE INTRODUCED LATER TODAY. TIMING WILL ALSO BE BUMPED UP, AS THE
LINE MAY BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT, THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORMS THAT PUSH THROUGH TODAY. SOME REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT, BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS MOST OF THAT WILL REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA IN ARKANSAS. THE FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY, WITH REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT
INSOLATION, INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/
SEVERE CONVECTION TOMORROW, BUT FORCING AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
MUCH WEAKER, MAKING THIS THREAT MORE UNCERTAIN. WITH THAT IN MIND, NO
THREAT WILL BE INTRODUCED IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE SHIFT IN EXPECTATIONS FROM THE AXIS OF MORE ACTIVE STORMS
AND HEAVY RAIN BEING OVER THE DELTA FARTHER SOUTH TO ACROSS CENTRAL
LA AND SOUTH MS, THAT ALSO SHIFTS EXPECTATIONS FOR THE FLOODING
THREAT. THOUGH MUCH OF THE DELTA MAY MISS OUT ON THE HEAVIEST RAIN,
PRECIP IS JUST BEGINNING TO ARRIVE IN THAT AREA, AND WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE LINE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THUS, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THAT AREA, BUT WE WILL LOWER
EXPECTED AMOUNTS. PERHAPS OF GREATER CONCERN IS AREAS FARTHER SOUTH
FROM CENTRAL LA ACROSS SOUTH MS. IN THESE AREAS, THERE WILL ALSO BE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. IF MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION, LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MAKE
AN EASTWARD EXTENSION TO THE WATCH INTO THE PINE BELT. FOR NOW, WE
WILL EXTEND A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE HWO
INTO SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. /DL/

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)...THE PERIOD OF ACTIVE
WEATHER WE ARE CURRENTLY IN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
MONDAY MORNING...ONE WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPART
WITH ANOTHER ON OUR DOORSTEP TO THE WEST. RAIN AND STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE ARKLAMISS REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS SHOULD BE THE
FINAL ROUND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL COME AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT
ACTUALLY MOVING INTO THE REGION SLOWLY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AS WELL BY WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN GIVEN HOWEVER MUCH
RAIN MAY FALL PRECEDING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
TRICKY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HAMPER MUCH
WARMING AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO MAKE FOR A
VARIATION IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE AREA.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AND THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO SWINGS THROUGH...
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY...THIS WILL LEAVE OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WE SHOULD SEE READINGS
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...SHOULD BE
SOME NICE WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND ONCE WE GET THROUGH SOME OF THE WET WEATHER IN THE SHORTER
TERM. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A LINE OF
SHRA/TSRA PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/
AFTERNOON HOURS. BRIEF VISBY CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
+RA, AND 50 KT WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE ALONG WITH
SMALL HAIL. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT, WITH MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT TO NW AT SITES IN THE DELTA SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       79  67  82  65 /  94  59  53  49
MERIDIAN      82  66  81  64 /  86  43  68  27
VICKSBURG     79  69  83  66 /  94  49  43  58
HATTIESBURG   82  66  82  66 /  95  55  70  29
NATCHEZ       80  67  81  66 /  95  59  62  54
GREENVILLE    79  66  82  63 /  60  30  23  50
GREENWOOD     78  66  82  63 /  57  40  29  49

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035-040-041.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR MSZ026>029-032-036-037-042>044-047>050-053>055-
     059>063.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR LAZ024>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

17/DL/28





000
FXUS64 KJAN 300952
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
452 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THIS WEEKEND)...A RATHER WET AND STORMY WEEKEND IS ON
TAP AS A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDS. EARLY THIS
MORNING, A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY/PURCHASE REGION SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX INTO
SE TEXAS. THIS WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE SWINGING INTO THE MIDSOUTH. THE MOST
VIGOROUS CONVECTION ALONG THE LINE IS ONGOING OVER EAST TX AND WEST
LA, AND THIS IS WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS OUR
AREA LATER ON TODAY AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD.

CURRENT TRENDS/CONSENSUS AMONG HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO REACH OUR NE LA PARISHES AROUND MID-MORNING. WITH THIS
TIME FRAME STILL BEING ON THE DOWNSIDE OF THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY
CURVE, THE STORMS ARE GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS ACTIVE AT
THAT POINT. HOWEVER, THROUGH THE DAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE LINE, STRENGTHENING/REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES EASTWARD. HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS TO SPREAD FARTHER NORTH ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AS
THERE IS MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR DAYTIME HEATING. THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE
IN STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS ACROSS THE DELTA, WHERE RAIN WILL LIKELY
BEGIN EARLY IN THE DAY WITH LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR DESTABILIZATION.
WITH THIS IN MIND, FOR GRAPHICS/HWO THE ELEVATED WILL BE REMOVED IN
THE WEST AND THE LIMITED WILL BE EXPANDED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. IF IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT THE LINE WILL BE MORE ACTIVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AN ELEVATED THREAT MAY NEED TO
BE INTRODUCED LATER TODAY. TIMING WILL ALSO BE BUMPED UP, AS THE
LINE MAY BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT, THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORMS THAT PUSH THROUGH TODAY. SOME REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT, BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS MOST OF THAT WILL REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA IN ARKANSAS. THE FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY, WITH REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT
INSOLATION, INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/
SEVERE CONVECTION TOMORROW, BUT FORCING AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
MUCH WEAKER, MAKING THIS THREAT MORE UNCERTAIN. WITH THAT IN MIND, NO
THREAT WILL BE INTRODUCED IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE SHIFT IN EXPECTATIONS FROM THE AXIS OF MORE ACTIVE STORMS
AND HEAVY RAIN BEING OVER THE DELTA FARTHER SOUTH TO ACROSS CENTRAL
LA AND SOUTH MS, THAT ALSO SHIFTS EXPECTATIONS FOR THE FLOODING
THREAT. THOUGH MUCH OF THE DELTA MAY MISS OUT ON THE HEAVIEST RAIN,
PRECIP IS JUST BEGINNING TO ARRIVE IN THAT AREA, AND WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE LINE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THUS, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THAT AREA, BUT WE WILL LOWER
EXPECTED AMOUNTS. PERHAPS OF GREATER CONCERN IS AREAS FARTHER SOUTH
FROM CENTRAL LA ACROSS SOUTH MS. IN THESE AREAS, THERE WILL ALSO BE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. IF MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION, LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MAKE
AN EASTWARD EXTENSION TO THE WATCH INTO THE PINE BELT. FOR NOW, WE
WILL EXTEND A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE HWO
INTO SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. /DL/

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)...THE PERIOD OF ACTIVE
WEATHER WE ARE CURRENTLY IN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
MONDAY MORNING...ONE WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPART
WITH ANOTHER ON OUR DOORSTEP TO THE WEST. RAIN AND STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE ARKLAMISS REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS SHOULD BE THE
FINAL ROUND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL COME AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT
ACTUALLY MOVING INTO THE REGION SLOWLY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AS WELL BY WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN GIVEN HOWEVER MUCH
RAIN MAY FALL PRECEDING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
TRICKY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HAMPER MUCH
WARMING AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO MAKE FOR A
VARIATION IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE AREA.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AND THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO SWINGS THROUGH...
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY...THIS WILL LEAVE OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WE SHOULD SEE READINGS
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...SHOULD BE
SOME NICE WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND ONCE WE GET THROUGH SOME OF THE WET WEATHER IN THE SHORTER
TERM. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A LINE OF
SHRA/TSRA PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/
AFTERNOON HOURS. BRIEF VISBY CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
+RA, AND 50 KT WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE ALONG WITH
SMALL HAIL. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT, WITH MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT TO NW AT SITES IN THE DELTA SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       79  67  82  65 /  94  59  53  49
MERIDIAN      82  66  81  64 /  86  43  68  27
VICKSBURG     79  69  83  66 /  94  49  43  58
HATTIESBURG   82  66  82  66 /  95  55  70  29
NATCHEZ       80  67  81  66 /  95  59  62  54
GREENVILLE    79  66  82  63 /  60  30  23  50
GREENWOOD     78  66  82  63 /  57  40  29  49

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035-040-041.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR MSZ026>029-032-036-037-042>044-047>050-053>055-
     059>063.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR LAZ024>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DL/28





000
FXUS64 KJAN 300952
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
452 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THIS WEEKEND)...A RATHER WET AND STORMY WEEKEND IS ON
TAP AS A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDS. EARLY THIS
MORNING, A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY/PURCHASE REGION SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX INTO
SE TEXAS. THIS WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE SWINGING INTO THE MIDSOUTH. THE MOST
VIGOROUS CONVECTION ALONG THE LINE IS ONGOING OVER EAST TX AND WEST
LA, AND THIS IS WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS OUR
AREA LATER ON TODAY AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD.

CURRENT TRENDS/CONSENSUS AMONG HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO REACH OUR NE LA PARISHES AROUND MID-MORNING. WITH THIS
TIME FRAME STILL BEING ON THE DOWNSIDE OF THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY
CURVE, THE STORMS ARE GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS ACTIVE AT
THAT POINT. HOWEVER, THROUGH THE DAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE LINE, STRENGTHENING/REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES EASTWARD. HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS TO SPREAD FARTHER NORTH ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AS
THERE IS MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR DAYTIME HEATING. THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE
IN STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS ACROSS THE DELTA, WHERE RAIN WILL LIKELY
BEGIN EARLY IN THE DAY WITH LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR DESTABILIZATION.
WITH THIS IN MIND, FOR GRAPHICS/HWO THE ELEVATED WILL BE REMOVED IN
THE WEST AND THE LIMITED WILL BE EXPANDED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. IF IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT THE LINE WILL BE MORE ACTIVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AN ELEVATED THREAT MAY NEED TO
BE INTRODUCED LATER TODAY. TIMING WILL ALSO BE BUMPED UP, AS THE
LINE MAY BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT, THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORMS THAT PUSH THROUGH TODAY. SOME REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT, BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS MOST OF THAT WILL REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA IN ARKANSAS. THE FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY, WITH REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT
INSOLATION, INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/
SEVERE CONVECTION TOMORROW, BUT FORCING AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
MUCH WEAKER, MAKING THIS THREAT MORE UNCERTAIN. WITH THAT IN MIND, NO
THREAT WILL BE INTRODUCED IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE SHIFT IN EXPECTATIONS FROM THE AXIS OF MORE ACTIVE STORMS
AND HEAVY RAIN BEING OVER THE DELTA FARTHER SOUTH TO ACROSS CENTRAL
LA AND SOUTH MS, THAT ALSO SHIFTS EXPECTATIONS FOR THE FLOODING
THREAT. THOUGH MUCH OF THE DELTA MAY MISS OUT ON THE HEAVIEST RAIN,
PRECIP IS JUST BEGINNING TO ARRIVE IN THAT AREA, AND WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE LINE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THUS, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THAT AREA, BUT WE WILL LOWER
EXPECTED AMOUNTS. PERHAPS OF GREATER CONCERN IS AREAS FARTHER SOUTH
FROM CENTRAL LA ACROSS SOUTH MS. IN THESE AREAS, THERE WILL ALSO BE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. IF MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION, LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MAKE
AN EASTWARD EXTENSION TO THE WATCH INTO THE PINE BELT. FOR NOW, WE
WILL EXTEND A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE HWO
INTO SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. /DL/

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)...THE PERIOD OF ACTIVE
WEATHER WE ARE CURRENTLY IN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
MONDAY MORNING...ONE WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPART
WITH ANOTHER ON OUR DOORSTEP TO THE WEST. RAIN AND STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE ARKLAMISS REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS SHOULD BE THE
FINAL ROUND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL COME AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT
ACTUALLY MOVING INTO THE REGION SLOWLY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AS WELL BY WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN GIVEN HOWEVER MUCH
RAIN MAY FALL PRECEDING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
TRICKY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HAMPER MUCH
WARMING AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO MAKE FOR A
VARIATION IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE AREA.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AND THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO SWINGS THROUGH...
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY...THIS WILL LEAVE OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WE SHOULD SEE READINGS
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...SHOULD BE
SOME NICE WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND ONCE WE GET THROUGH SOME OF THE WET WEATHER IN THE SHORTER
TERM. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A LINE OF
SHRA/TSRA PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/
AFTERNOON HOURS. BRIEF VISBY CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
+RA, AND 50 KT WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE ALONG WITH
SMALL HAIL. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT, WITH MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT TO NW AT SITES IN THE DELTA SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       79  67  82  65 /  94  59  53  49
MERIDIAN      82  66  81  64 /  86  43  68  27
VICKSBURG     79  69  83  66 /  94  49  43  58
HATTIESBURG   82  66  82  66 /  95  55  70  29
NATCHEZ       80  67  81  66 /  95  59  62  54
GREENVILLE    79  66  82  63 /  60  30  23  50
GREENWOOD     78  66  82  63 /  57  40  29  49

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035-040-041.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR MSZ026>029-032-036-037-042>044-047>050-053>055-
     059>063.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR LAZ024>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DL/28





000
FXUS64 KJAN 300109 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
809 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS THE
LAST OF TODAY`S ACTIVITY WAS DISSIPATING OVER THE NORTHEAST.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE KNOCKED DOWN ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR DUE TO THE EARLIER CONVECTION. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE
CURVES BUT WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
THROUGH THE NIGHT MORNING LOWS STILL LOOKED ON TRACK. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WAS DISSIPATING OVER THE NE AT
01Z AND NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNTIL AFTER
12Z IN THE NW. VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THIS EVNG BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 10Z AREAWIDE AND CONT UNTIL 15Z. VFR CONDS WL
PREVAIL SAT AWAY FROM TSRA ACTIVITY WHICH WILL BEGIN IN THE NW SAT
MORNING AND SPREAD OVER THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTN. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AN INCREASING THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM...

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES...WHICH HAD BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH AN ASSOCIATED NEARLY CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. AN UPPER JET SEGMENT OF 110 KNOTS WAS COMING AT THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WAS COMING OUT OF
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WAS NOTED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE GULF. OTHERWISE AN
MCS WAS NOTED AROUND THE MIDSOUTH REGION...WHICH HAS SOME SEVERE AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RISKS. THE ACTIVITY WAS STAYING NORTH OF I-20 DUE
TO THE STRENGTH FOR THE CAP ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE REGION. ON
THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WAS NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD AS THE
CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BRINGS IN A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A RISK OF SOME SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FOR THE WESTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE GOOD INSTABILITY AND FORCING WITH
THESE SHORT WAVES. THE PRIMARY RISKS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO.  PER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IT WILL PROBABLY BECOME MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
ISSUE AS WE PUSH INTO THE SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FAR AS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS CONCERN MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES...WHICH WILL BRING SOME
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE LOOKING AT
AROUND 3-5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTREME
NORTHWEST FOR TONIGHT...THEN MOST OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SO WITH THE MODELS BRINGING WAVE AFTER WAVE OVER THE
CWA WILL PUT OUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST
AREA FOR TONIGHT...THEN EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SO WITH THIS IN MIND PUT IN HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE GRIDS.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...OUR CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. WPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE SOUTH
DURING THE PERIOD GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. FOR NOW
WILL NOT MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY ON ANY GRAPHICS FOR THIS PERIOD.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S./17/

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL
CONTINUE OUR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHARP SHORTWAVE
WILL FINALLY END THE RAIN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT
THE REGION UNDER A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SO DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP A DRY PERIOD REGIME
OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AS WE MOVE INTO
THE WEEKEND MODELS DIFFER ON WHAT KIND OF UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION IN ANY CASE THIS WILL CONTINUE OUR BOUT OF DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACCORDING TO THE GFS...WHILE THE EURO TRIES TO
BRING IN SOME RAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  84  66  80 /  14  51  71  60
MERIDIAN      66  86  67  81 /  14  30  55  61
VICKSBURG     69  83  66  81 /  26  67  70  52
HATTIESBURG   68  87  70  82 /   6  28  36  65
NATCHEZ       70  82  67  80 /  13  65  67  61
GREENVILLE    66  81  65  82 /  63  61  65  35
GREENWOOD     64  82  66  81 /  45  51  66  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035-040-041.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR MSZ026>029-032-036-037-042>044-047>050-053>055-059>063.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ024>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

22/17





000
FXUS64 KJAN 292059
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
359 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AN INCREASING THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES...WHICH HAD BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH AN ASSOCIATED
NEARLY CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN UPPER JET SEGMENT
OF 110 KNOTS WAS COMING AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WAS COMING OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SUBTROPICAL JET WAS NOTED TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE GULF. OTHERWISE AN MCS WAS NOTED AROUND THE MIDSOUTH
REGION...WHICH HAS SOME SEVERE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RISKS. THE
ACTIVITY WAS STAYING NORTH OF I-20 DUE TO THE STRENGTH FO THE CAP
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE REGION. ON THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WAS
NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD AS THE
CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BRINGS IN A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A RISK OF SOME SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FOR THE WESTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE GOOD INSTABILITY AND FORCING WITH
THESE SHORT WAVES. THE PRIMARY RISKS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO.  PER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IT WILL PROBABLY BECOME MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
ISSUE AS WE PUSH INTO THE SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FAR AS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS CONCERN MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES...WHICH WILL BRING SOME
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE LOOKING AT
AROUND 3-5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTREME
NORTHWEST FOR TONIGHT...THEN MOST OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SO WITH THE MODELS BRINGING WAVE AFTER WAVE OVER THE
CWA WILL PUT OUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST
AREA FOR TONIGHT...THEN EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SO WITH THIS IN MIND PUT IN HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE GRIDS.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...OUR CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. WPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE SOUTH
DURING THE PERIOD GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. FOR NOW
WILL NOT MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY ON ANY GRAPHICS FOR THIS PERIOD.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S./17/

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE OUR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A SHARP SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY END THE RAIN FROM THE WEST
BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION UNDER A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. SO DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL SET UP A DRY PERIOD REGIME OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND MODELS DIFFER ON WHAT
KIND OF UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION IN ANY CASE THIS WILL
CONTINUE OUR BOUT OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACCORDING TO
THE GFS...WHILE THE EURO TRIES TO BRING IN SOME RAIN BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S./17/

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER
AREAS NORTH OF I-20. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO BRIEFLY
DROP CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR AS THEY PASS OVER AN AERODROME. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
THEREAFTER...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN BY 30/06Z AND LINGER
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  84  66  80 /  21  51  71  60
MERIDIAN      66  86  67  81 /  17  30  55  61
VICKSBURG     70  83  66  81 /  39  67  70  52
HATTIESBURG   69  87  70  82 /   6  28  36  65
NATCHEZ       71  82  67  80 /  28  65  67  61
GREENVILLE    68  81  65  82 /  63  61  65  35
GREENWOOD     66  82  66  81 /  49  51  66  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 292059
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
359 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AN INCREASING THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES...WHICH HAD BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH AN ASSOCIATED
NEARLY CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN UPPER JET SEGMENT
OF 110 KNOTS WAS COMING AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WAS COMING OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SUBTROPICAL JET WAS NOTED TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE GULF. OTHERWISE AN MCS WAS NOTED AROUND THE MIDSOUTH
REGION...WHICH HAS SOME SEVERE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RISKS. THE
ACTIVITY WAS STAYING NORTH OF I-20 DUE TO THE STRENGTH FO THE CAP
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE REGION. ON THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WAS
NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD AS THE
CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BRINGS IN A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A RISK OF SOME SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FOR THE WESTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE GOOD INSTABILITY AND FORCING WITH
THESE SHORT WAVES. THE PRIMARY RISKS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO.  PER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IT WILL PROBABLY BECOME MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
ISSUE AS WE PUSH INTO THE SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FAR AS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS CONCERN MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES...WHICH WILL BRING SOME
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE LOOKING AT
AROUND 3-5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTREME
NORTHWEST FOR TONIGHT...THEN MOST OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SO WITH THE MODELS BRINGING WAVE AFTER WAVE OVER THE
CWA WILL PUT OUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST
AREA FOR TONIGHT...THEN EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SO WITH THIS IN MIND PUT IN HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE GRIDS.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...OUR CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. WPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE SOUTH
DURING THE PERIOD GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. FOR NOW
WILL NOT MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY ON ANY GRAPHICS FOR THIS PERIOD.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S./17/

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE OUR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A SHARP SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY END THE RAIN FROM THE WEST
BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION UNDER A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. SO DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL SET UP A DRY PERIOD REGIME OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND MODELS DIFFER ON WHAT
KIND OF UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION IN ANY CASE THIS WILL
CONTINUE OUR BOUT OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACCORDING TO
THE GFS...WHILE THE EURO TRIES TO BRING IN SOME RAIN BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S./17/

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER
AREAS NORTH OF I-20. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO BRIEFLY
DROP CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR AS THEY PASS OVER AN AERODROME. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
THEREAFTER...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN BY 30/06Z AND LINGER
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  84  66  80 /  21  51  71  60
MERIDIAN      66  86  67  81 /  17  30  55  61
VICKSBURG     70  83  66  81 /  39  67  70  52
HATTIESBURG   69  87  70  82 /   6  28  36  65
NATCHEZ       71  82  67  80 /  28  65  67  61
GREENVILLE    68  81  65  82 /  63  61  65  35
GREENWOOD     66  82  66  81 /  49  51  66  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 291446
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
945 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...SHOWED AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT WAS SENDING SHORTWAVES IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. AN
IMPRESSIVE MCS WAS CENTERED OVER AR. AN 850 MB WARM FRONT WAS NOTED
ACROSS THE CWA EXTENDING INTO NORTH TEXAS. UPPER DIVERGENCE WAS
NOTED ACROSS THE CWA. ON THE SURFACE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
PUSHING NORTH OVER THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE MCS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS. ALSO STRONG STORMS WERE DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHWEST LA EXTENDING INTO ONE OF THE SPOKES IN SOUTHERN AR.
ON A SIDE NOTE ONE MINUTE RAPID SATELLITE SCAN WAS PICKING UP SOME
GRAVITY WAVES COMING FROM SOUTHEAST MS. ON AREA SOUNDINGS LCH AND
JAN WAS SHOWING SOME IMPRESSIVE LAPSE AROUND 8C AT 700-500 MB WITH A
NICE POCKET OF DRY AIR WHICH WILL AID IN STORM INTENSITY FOR TODAY.
SHV SOUNDING HAD SOME IMPRESSIVE FLOW IN THE LOW TO MIDLEVELS WHICH
AIDED RAPID STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. MCS OVER AR WILL SPREAD
EAST NORTH OF WARM FRONT AND WILL GIVE OUR NORTHERN AREAS A RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING DAMAGING WINDS...GOLF
BALL SIZED HAIL...AND TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. LATEST HRRR
BRINGS IT IN THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SO CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. POPS
LOOK TO BE ALSO ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON./17/

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 29/18Z...HOWEVER
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER AREAS NORTH OF
I20. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO BRIEFLY DROP CIGS/VSBYS
TO IFR AS THEY PASS OVER AN AERODROME. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THEREAFTER...MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
BY 30/06Z AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD./26/

&&

445 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE AN
INCREASING THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A STALLED BOUNDARY
RUNNING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING EXTENDS WAY BACK WEST THROUGH THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE AN INCOMING DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY USING THE
BOUNDARY TO HELP SPARK VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OUT THAT
DIRECTION. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GLANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION TODAY AND SHOULD TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER EAST (IN
THE VICINITY OF THE PINE BLUFF AR TO CLARKSDALE MS TO GREENVILLE MS
AREA) LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. BY THAT TIME HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE WARMTH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OF AT LEAST 1500-2000 J/KG
MLCAPE. HIRES MODELS SUGGEST MOST LIKELY ONE OR TWO POTENT TSTORM
LINE SEGMENTS INITIATING IN THIS VICINITY WILL ADVANCE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SHEAR LEVELS COULD BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELL OR TWO AND...GIVEN THE BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY...LOW LEVEL HELICITY COULD BE LOCALLY ENHANCED HIGH ENOUGH
TO MAKE A TORNADO A NON-NEGLIGIBLE THREAT. BUT THE MAIN RISKS WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ON THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THE HWO/GRAPHICS. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR CONDITIONS
WILL MOSTLY LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH ANY ISOLATED
STORMS WILL STILL BE TROUBLING CONSIDERING HIGH INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON OWING TO MAX TEMPS FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE
MARK.

AFTER THIS EVENING ATTENTION WILL BE TURNING BACK TO THE WEST AS THE
MAIN UPPER DISTURBANCE (WHICH SENT THE EARLIER PIECE OF ENERGY OUR
WAY) BEGINS SWINGING INTO THE ARKLATEX. EXPECTING THIS SYSTEM TO GET
MORE VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS GOING OUT TO OUR WEST OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME HIRES AND SHORT TERM MODEL MEMBERS SUGGESTING THIS ACTIVITY
COULD IMPINGE ON AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY TRENDS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
REGARDING LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

BUT THE SITUATION FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME WEATHER TROUBLES FOR THE REGION AS THE DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY
SHEARING OUT JUST TO OUR NORTH SLOWLY PUSHES A FRONT TOWARD THE
REGION. AS THIS OCCURS IMPRESSIVE AND PROLONGED GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL SET UP INTO OUR REGION WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING
SEVERAL BATCHES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN AN AIR MASS OF 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST SOME SEVERE CONCERN...ESPECIALLY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
SATURDAY...BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT I THINK THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL BE THE LARGER WORRY AND LOCALIZED TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXCESS
OF SEVERAL INCHES COULD DEFINITELY CAUSE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING
ISSUES. THE HWO/GRAPHICS WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS LATEST
THINKING. /BB/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
EPISODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS MIDWEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT,
AT LEAST ON THE PROSPECTS OF RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE SPECIFICS
OF FRONTAL PLACEMENT, WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE TEMP
FORECAST.

TO START OFF THE PERIOD, BROAD TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF
THE JET WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE WEST, WITH A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL ALSO BE IN PLAY, EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL BE
ORIENTED SSW/NNE NEAR OR ALONG THE NW BORDER OF THE CWA.

HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER
OUR REGION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET REMAINING NORTH OF
THE AREA, GIVING THE SURFACE FRONT LITTLE IMPETUS TO MAKE
SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. AS A RESULT, THE FRONT WILL STALL/
WAFFLE/WAVER OVER THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY RESULTING IN MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THAT TIME AS MAINLY WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THIS TIME FRAME, A LACK
OF FORCING AND WEAK SHEAR PRECLUDE BEING ABLE TO PICK OUT ANY
NOTABLE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER,
FLOODING COULD BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN GIVEN MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

BY MIDWEEK, UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST,
SENDING A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL THRUST
THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY, MAKING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       89  67  84  66 /  29  21  52  74
MERIDIAN      88  66  86  67 /  34  17  26  55
VICKSBURG     88  70  83  66 /  29  46  71  75
HATTIESBURG   89  69  87  70 /  14   6  24  46
NATCHEZ       88  71  82  67 /  15  35  65  73
GREENVILLE    81  68  81  65 /  74  63  66  66
GREENWOOD     82  66  82  66 /  74  48  56  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/26/BB/DL





000
FXUS64 KJAN 290943
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
445 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE AN
INCREASING THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A STALLED BOUNDARY
RUNNING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING EXTENDS WAY BACK WEST THROUGH THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE AN INCOMING DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY USING THE
BOUNDARY TO HELP SPARK VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OUT THAT
DIRECTION. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GLANCE ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION TODAY AND SHOULD TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER EAST (IN
THE VICINITY OF THE PINE BLUFF AR TO CLARKSDALE MS TO GREENVILLE MS
AREA) LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. BY THAT TIME HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE WARMTH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OF AT LEAST 1500-2000 J/KG
MLCAPE. HIRES MODELS SUGGEST MOST LIKELY ONE OR TWO POTENT TSTORM
LINE SEGMENTS INITIATING IN THIS VICINITY WILL ADVANCE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SHEAR LEVELS COULD BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELL OR TWO AND...GIVEN THE BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY...LOW LEVEL HELICITY COULD BE LOCALLY ENHANCED HIGH ENOUGH
TO MAKE A TORNADO A NON-NEGLIGIBLE THREAT. BUT THE MAIN RISKS WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ON THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THE HWO/GRAPHICS. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR CONDITIONS
WILL MOSTLY LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH ANY ISOLATED
STORMS WILL STILL BE TROUBLING CONSIDERING HIGH INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON OWING TO MAX TEMPS FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE
MARK.

AFTER THIS EVENING ATTENTION WILL BE TURNING BACK TO THE WEST AS THE
MAIN UPPER DISTURBANCE (WHICH SENT THE EARLIER PIECE OF ENERGY OUR
WAY) BEGINS SWINGING INTO THE ARKLATEX. EXPECTING THIS SYSTEM TO GET
MORE VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS GOING OUT TO OUR WEST OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME HIRES AND SHORT TERM MODEL MEMBERS SUGGESTING THIS ACTIVITY
COULD IMPINGE ON AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY TRENDS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
REGARDING LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

BUT THE SITUATION FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME WEATHER TROUBLES FOR THE REGION AS THE DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY
SHEARING OUT JUST TO OUR NORTH SLOWLY PUSHES A FRONT TOWARD THE
REGION. AS THIS OCCURS IMPRESSIVE AND PROLONGED GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL SET UP INTO OUR REGION WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING
SEVERAL BATCHES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN AN AIR MASS OF 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST SOME SEVERE CONCERN...ESPECIALLY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
SATURDAY...BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT I THINK THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL BE THE LARGER WORRY AND LOCALIZED TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXCESS
OF SEVERAL INCHES COULD DEFINITELY CAUSE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING
ISSUES. THE HWO/GRAPHICS WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS LATEST
THINKING. /BB/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
EPISODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS MIDWEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT,
AT LEAST ON THE PROSPECTS OF RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE SPECIFICS
OF FRONTAL PLACEMENT, WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE TEMP
FORECAST.

TO START OFF THE PERIOD, BROAD TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF
THE JET WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE WEST, WITH A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL ALSO BE IN PLAY, EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL BE
ORIENTED SSW/NNE NEAR OR ALONG THE NW BORDER OF THE CWA.

HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER
OUR REGION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET REMAINING NORTH OF
THE AREA, GIVING THE SURFACE FRONT LITTLE IMPETUS TO MAKE
SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. AS A RESULT, THE FRONT WILL STALL/
WAFFLE/WAVER OVER THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY RESULTING IN MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THAT TIME AS MAINLY WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THIS TIME FRAME, A LACK
OF FORCING AND WEAK SHEAR PRECLUDE BEING ABLE TO PICK OUT ANY
NOTABLE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER,
FLOODING COULD BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN GIVEN MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

BY MIDWEEK, UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST,
SENDING A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL THRUST
THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY, MAKING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CATS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING THROUGH 9 OR 10 AM DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. EXPECT FLIGHT CATS TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN
MOST AREAS BY MIDDAY ALTHOUGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE GLH/GWO/CBM/GTR CORRIDOR COULD
CAUSE MAJOR ISSUES AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND A LITTLE GUSTY IN
THE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON...BUT MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE
MORE ERRATIC NORTH OF I-20 AROUND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       89  67  84  66 /  29  21  52  74
MERIDIAN      88  66  86  67 /  34  17  26  55
VICKSBURG     88  70  83  66 /  29  46  71  75
HATTIESBURG   89  69  87  70 /  14   6  24  46
NATCHEZ       88  71  82  67 /  15  35  65  73
GREENVILLE    81  68  81  65 /  74  63  66  66
GREENWOOD     82  66  82  66 /  74  48  56  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/DL





000
FXUS64 KJAN 290220 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
920 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
THE BOUNDARY NOW HANGS ACROSS THE AREA KIND OF ALONG THE NATCHEZ
TRACE CORRIDOR. THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S. AFTER PERUSING THE HI-RES MODELS, HAVE BACKED
OFF ON RAIN CHANCES TIL AFTER 12Z. ONLY ADJUSTED THE POPS FOR THIS
UPDATE. TEMPS LOOK GOOD. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY ONLY SHOWED A FEW CLOUDS ALONG THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR
AT 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER 09Z. AFTER 09Z MVFR
CIGS WL DEVELOP AND LOWER TO IFR CNTRL AND SOUTH. LIFR CONDS ARE PSBL
AT HBG. CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE BY 15Z BUT TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY WL COME
IN VCTY OF GLH AND GWO THEN. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.  FOR TONIGHT...QUIET CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AS A BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO AGAIN BEGIN INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.  LOW
CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE WAKE
OF THIS NORTHWARD LIFTING BOUNDARY...WITH AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD AS THEY SLIP INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S.

AFTER THE TONIGHT PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE FORECAST WILL
EXACTLY PAN OUT FOR FRIDAY IS RUNNING A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON.  CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL
HANG UP ACROSS TO JUST NORTH OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY
MORNING...A DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SEND A COMPLEX OF STORMS
EAST NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...OUT OF THE ARKLATEX AND TOWARDS
THE MID-SOUTH REGION...POSSIBLE CLIPPING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
ARKLAMISS IN THE PROCESS.  AS THIS OCCURS...SOME MODELS INDICATE
THIS COMPLEX COULD LAYOUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HANGS UP NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.

THIS BOUNDARY...IN ADDITION TO ADEQUATE WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA...
AND DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH SOME DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DELTA REGION AND NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.  THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.  IN ADDITION...THE WEST TO EAST
ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED STORM MOTION...COUPLED WITH
DEEP AND INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...COULD RESULT IN
CONVECTION PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME
LOCALES OVER PORTIONS OF THE DELTA REGION AND NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.  THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OVER
THESE AREAS. THEREFORE...IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING "LIMITED THREAT"
FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO OVER MY NORTHWEST FRIDAY...A "LIMITED
THREAT" FOR FLOODING WAS ADDED TO THE HWO THIS AFTERNOON.  FURTHER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE SOME RAIN
CHANCES EXISTS...THAT`LL BE MORE OF THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
VARIETY AS A CAPPING INVERSION CURRENTLY LOOKS MORE PROMINENT ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FAIL-SAFES THAT COULD LESSEN THE CHANCES OF
THE ABOVE SCENARIOS OCCURRING.  ONE COULD BE A CAPPING INVERSION
THAT`S PROGGED TO BE OVER THE CWA LIMITING OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION.  THE OTHER BEING DEBRIS OFF THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED
EXPECTED COMPLEX LIMITING BOTH HEATING AND INSTABILITY OVER THE
AREA...AND/OR THE OUTFLOW OFF THIS SAME COMPLEX TRAVERSING THE
REGION ENTIRELY AND EARLY ENOUGH THAT IT STABILIZES OUR AIRMASS IN
TIME FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HOW THINGS DEVELOP UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WILL
ESSENTIALLY MAKE OR BREAK THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.  THE LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA TO OUR WEST WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY
OVERNIGHT TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY COULD EXIST FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BEGINS IMPEDING UPON
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF FORECAST WILL
FEATURE OFF AND ON RAIN/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THIS WEEKEND, BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
OVER THE PLAINS EJECTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY. OUR AREA WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN A
WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME, WITH A COLD FRONT WELL
WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. ON SATURDAY MORNING A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (REMNANT FROM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY) IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CWA AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. THIS FEATURE COULD COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S SCENARIO). OUTSIDE OF
THE FEATURE, MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, WITH MORE OF AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE EVENING AS STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVES OVER THE REGION. THROUGH THE DAY, UPPER FORCING/LLJ
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE, WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING IN MANY
AREAS. ANY STRONG STORMS WOULD BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY,
THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG
STORMS. GIVEN SHAKY CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION OF ACTIVITY SATURDAY, NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT LIMITED THREAT AREA HIGHLIGHTED
IN THE HWO.

BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST NW OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FROM THAT POINT THROUGH TUESDAY, MODEL SOLUTIONS
NOTABLY DIVERGE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. THE GFS/GEM SHOW
THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES
ESSENTIALLY ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL
DAWDLE OVER THE CWA WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. THERE
IS AT LEAST SOME AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME THAT MOST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION, SUGGESTING PRECIP
WOULD LIKELY BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND LESS ORGANIZED. THERE WILL
ALSO BE BROADER-SCALE LIFT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET
SITUATED ACROSS THE MO/OH VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEAR/ALONG
THE COAST. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT, IT COULD PORTEND A
POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW, WILL KEEP ISOLATED/SCATTERED POP IN THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY
GIVEN THE CURRENT LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY.

TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, SHOVING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD AND
CUTTING OFF RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  87  68  82 /  13  41  23  37
MERIDIAN      65  87  67  83 /  12  40  15  28
VICKSBURG     68  86  70  82 /  14  44  33  49
HATTIESBURG   67  89  68  84 /  13  13  10  24
NATCHEZ       69  87  70  81 /  13  19  26  46
GREENVILLE    65  81  68  81 /  22  68  52  57
GREENWOOD     64  81  68  81 /  13  66  44  47

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 282046
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
346 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.  FOR TONIGHT...QUIET CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AS A BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO AGAIN BEGIN INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.  LOW
CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE WAKE
OF THIS NORTHWARD LIFTING BOUNDARY...WITH AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD AS THEY SLIP INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S.

AFTER THE TONIGHT PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE FORECAST WILL
EXACTLY PAN OUT FOR FRIDAY IS RUNNING A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON.  CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL
HANG UP ACROSS TO JUST NORTH OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY
MORNING...A DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SEND A COMPLEX OF STORMS
EAST NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...OUT OF THE ARKLATEX AND TOWARDS
THE MID-SOUTH REGION...POSSIBLE CLIPPING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
ARKLAMISS IN THE PROCESS.  AS THIS OCCURS...SOME MODELS INDICATE
THIS COMPLEX COULD LAYOUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HANGS UP NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.

THIS BOUNDARY...IN ADDITION TO ADEQUATE WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA...
AND DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH SOME DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DELTA REGION AND NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.  THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.  IN ADDITION...THE WEST TO EAST
ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECTED STORM MOTION...COUPLED WITH
DEEP AND INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...COULD RESULT IN
CONVECTION PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME
LOCALES OVER PORTIONS OF THE DELTA REGION AND NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.  THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OVER
THESE AREAS. THEREFORE...IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING "LIMITED THREAT"
FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO OVER MY NORTHWEST FRIDAY...A "LIMITED
THREAT" FOR FLOODING WAS ADDED TO THE HWO THIS AFTERNOON.  FURTHER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE SOME RAIN
CHANCES EXISTS...THAT`LL BE MORE OF THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
VARIETY AS A CAPPING INVERSION CURRENTLY LOOKS MORE PROMINENT ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FAIL-SAFES THAT COULD LESSEN THE CHANCES OF
THE ABOVE SCENARIOS OCCURRING.  ONE COULD BE A CAPPING INVERSION
THAT`S PROGGED TO BE OVER THE CWA LIMITING OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION.  THE OTHER BEING DEBRIS OFF THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED
EXPECTED COMPLEX LIMITING BOTH HEATING AND INSTABILITY OVER THE
AREA...AND/OR THE OUTFLOW OFF THIS SAME COMPLEX TRAVERSING THE
REGION ENTIRELY AND EARLY ENOUGH THAT IT STABILIZES OUR AIRMASS IN
TIME FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HOW THINGS DEVELOP UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WILL
ESSENTIALLY MAKE OR BREAK THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.  THE LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA TO OUR WEST WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY
OVERNIGHT TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY COULD EXIST FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BEGINS IMPEDING UPON
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF FORECAST WILL
FEATURE OFF AND ON RAIN/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THIS WEEKEND, BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
OVER THE PLAINS EJECTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY. OUR AREA WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN A
WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME, WITH A COLD FRONT WELL
WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. ON SATURDAY MORNING A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (REMNANT FROM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY) IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CWA AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. THIS FEATURE COULD COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S SCENARIO). OUTSIDE OF
THE FEATURE, MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, WITH MORE OF AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE EVENING AS STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVES OVER THE REGION. THROUGH THE DAY, UPPER FORCING/LLJ
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE, WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING IN MANY
AREAS. ANY STRONG STORMS WOULD BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY,
THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG
STORMS. GIVEN SHAKY CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION OF ACTIVITY SATURDAY, NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT LIMITED THREAT AREA HIGHLIGHTED
IN THE HWO.

BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST NW OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FROM THAT POINT THROUGH TUESDAY, MODEL SOLUTIONS
NOTABLY DIVERGE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. THE GFS/GEM SHOW
THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES
ESSENTIALLY ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL
DAWDLE OVER THE CWA WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. THERE
IS AT LEAST SOME AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME THAT MOST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION, SUGGESTING PRECIP
WOULD LIKELY BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND LESS ORGANIZED. THERE WILL
ALSO BE BROADER-SCALE LIFT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET
SITUATED ACROSS THE MO/OH VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEAR/ALONG
THE COAST. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT, IT COULD PORTEND A
POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW, WILL KEEP ISOLATED/SCATTERED POP IN THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY
GIVEN THE CURRENT LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY.

TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, SHOVING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD AND
CUTTING OFF RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS LOW STRATUS INCREASES OVER THE REGION. SOME PATCHY FOG
OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...KHBG AND KMEI...COULD
CAUSE VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO AT LEAST MVFR STATUS AROUND DAY BREAK
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. /17/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  87  68  82 /  14  41  23  37
MERIDIAN      65  87  67  83 /  13  40  15  28
VICKSBURG     68  86  70  82 /  18  44  33  49
HATTIESBURG   67  89  68  84 /  14  14  10  24
NATCHEZ       69  87  70  81 /  14  19  26  46
GREENVILLE    65  81  68  81 /  21  68  52  57
GREENWOOD     64  81  68  81 /  12  66  44  47

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/17/DL





000
FXUS64 KJAN 281447 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
947 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...QUIET AND WARM CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY.  A STALLED BOUNDARY RESIDING ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE TODAY.  WHILE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE COURSE OF
TODAY.  LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS SUPPORT THIS.

STORMS THAT INDEED DEVELOP ACROSS MY SOUTH TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...A STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME
INTENSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR 40 MPH...SMALL
HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

OVERALL...THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN
THE MID AND UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...LATE THIS MORNING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WAS NOTED
ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR IFR CONDITIONS AROUND GTR...WHICH
WILL LIFT TO VFR FROM THE WEST.  EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
WHOLE REGION TODAY...EXCEPT FOR AROUND HBG WHERE THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT./17/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH AN ACTUAL COLD
FRONT IS ONLY NOW SLOWLY CLOSING IN ON THE ARKLAMISS DELTA FROM THE
NORTHWEST WE ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN CONFINED TO MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF MS THROUGH THE DAY. IN THESE LATTER AREAS
IS WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION SHOULD
RESIDE...AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION GOING
DESPITE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LIFT. LATEST HIRES MODELS SUGGEST THE RISK
FOR VIGOROUS CELLS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO COAST AND THUS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTIONING IN
GRAPHICS/HWO. ALSO WORTH MENTIONED FOR EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THROUGH 830 AM OR SO IN AREAS OUTSIDE OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MS. THE VERY LATEST TRENDS IN THIS
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE USED TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER HWO INCLUSION
OF THIS MORNING THREAT IS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TODAY TO BE
QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM
CLOUDIEST SPOTS IN MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD GRADUALLY SAG
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AND STALL PARALLEL TO (BUT PROBABLY A LITTLE
NORTH OF) THE I-20 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS (OUT WEST) AND TOWARD THE PLAINS
DURING THIS PERIOD. MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY AGREES THAT A WEAK
DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL PRESS INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO LIFT FROM THE
INCOMING DISTURBANCE INTERACTING WITH THE MENTIONED STALLED BOUNDARY
AND MODERATE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON INSTABILITY (MLCAPE PEAKING AROUND
2000 J/KG IN SPOTS). CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED IN
NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE CONSOLIDATED LIFT IS BEST AND MOST ABLE TO
OVERCOME THERMAL MID LAYER CAPPING ISSUES. CONSIDERING AT LEAST
MARGINAL WIND SHEAR IN THIS AREA AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE HIGH
WE THINK MENTION OF A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS (WITH HAIL AND
HIGHS WINDS THE MAIN THREAT) IS WARRANTED. THE HWO/GRAPHICS WILL
REFLECT SUCH. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
ALTHOUGH THE DEFEAT OF CAP IS MORE OF A QUESTION MARK AND WE WILL
WAIT FOR MORE MODEL INFO TO CONSIDER EXPANDING THE LIMITED RISK.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME FOG POTENTIAL AGAIN IN SOUTHEAST MS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS MOSTLY WELL UP IN THE 80S (ASIDE FROM
CLOUDIER LOCALES IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE OVERRIDING SIGNAL IN MODELS IS THAT POCKETS OF
VIGOROUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE OR SHIFT NORTH IN THE
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT CLOSER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INDUCE ENOUGH MOISTURE INFLUX TO BRING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO
AT LEAST WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT. /BB/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
FORECAST WILL FEATURE OFF AND ON RAIN/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH DRYING CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THIS WEEKEND, BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
OVER THE PLAINS EJECTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY. OUR AREA WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN A
WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME, WITH A COLD FRONT WELL
WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. ON SATURDAY MORNING A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (REMNANT FROM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY) IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CWA AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. THIS FEATURE COULD COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S SCENARIO). OUTSIDE OF
THE FEATURE, MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, WITH MORE OF AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE EVENING AS STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVES OVER THE REGION. THROUGH THE DAY, UPPER FORCING/LLJ
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE, WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING IN MANY
AREAS. ANY STRONG STORMS WOULD BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY,
THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG
STORMS. GIVEN SHAKY CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION OF ACTIVITY SATURDAY, NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT LIMITED THREAT AREA HIGHLIGHTED
IN THE HWO.

BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST NW OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FROM THAT POINT THROUGH TUESDAY, MODEL SOLUTIONS
NOTABLY DIVERGE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. THE GFS/GEM SHOW
THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES
ESSENTIALLY ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL
DAWDLE OVER THE CWA WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. THERE
IS AT LEAST SOME AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME THAT MOST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION, SUGGESTING PRECIP
WOULD LIKELY BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND LESS ORGANIZED. THERE WILL
ALSO BE BROADER-SCALE LIFT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET
SITUATED ACROSS THE MO/OH VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEAR/ALONG
THE COAST. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT, IT COULD PORTEND A
POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW, WILL KEEP ISOLATED/SCATTERED POP IN THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY
GIVEN THE CURRENT LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY.

TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, SHOVING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD AND
CUTTING OFF RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  67  86  68 /  11  13  37  20
MERIDIAN      84  65  86  66 /  12  13  27  20
VICKSBURG     88  67  86  70 /   7  21  46  31
HATTIESBURG   85  69  88  68 /  52  22  17  12
NATCHEZ       86  70  86  70 /  12  19  27  25
GREENVILLE    85  65  80  68 /   3  12  63  52
GREENWOOD     86  63  81  67 /   3   7  53  39

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/17





000
FXUS64 KJAN 280950
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
445 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH AN ACTUAL COLD
FRONT IS ONLY NOW SLOWLY CLOSING IN ON THE ARKLAMISS DELTA FROM THE
NORTHWEST WE ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN CONFINED TO MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF MS THROUGH THE DAY. IN THESE LATTER AREAS
IS WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION SHOULD
RESIDE...AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION GOING
DESPITE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LIFT. LATEST HIRES MODELS SUGGEST THE RISK
FOR VIGOROUS CELLS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO COAST AND THUS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTIONING IN
GRAPHICS/HWO. ALSO WORTH MENTIONED FOR EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THROUGH 830 AM OR SO IN AREAS OUTSIDE OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MS. THE VERY LATEST TRENDS IN THIS
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE USED TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER HWO INCLUSION
OF THIS MORNING THREAT IS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TODAY TO BE
QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM
CLOUDIEST SPOTS IN MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD GRADUALLY SAG
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AND STALL PARALLEL TO (BUT PROBABLY A LITTLE
NORTH OF) THE I-20 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS (OUT WEST) AND TOWARD THE PLAINS
DURING THIS PERIOD. MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY AGREES THAT A WEAK
DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL PRESS INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO LIFT FROM THE
INCOMING DISTURBANCE INTERACTING WITH THE MENTIONED STALLED BOUNDARY
AND MODERATE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON INSTABILITY (MLCAPE PEAKING AROUND
2000 J/KG IN SPOTS). CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED IN
NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE CONSOLIDATED LIFT IS BEST AND MOST ABLE TO
OVERCOME THERMAL MID LAYER CAPPING ISSUES. CONSIDERING AT LEAST
MARGINAL WIND SHEAR IN THIS AREA AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE HIGH
WE THINK MENTION OF A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS (WITH HAIL AND
HIGHS WINDS THE MAIN THREAT) IS WARRANTED. THE HWO/GRAPHICS WILL
REFLECT SUCH. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
ALTHOUGH THE DEFEAT OF CAP IS MORE OF A QUESTION MARK AND WE WILL
WAIT FOR MORE MODEL INFO TO CONSIDER EXPANDING THE LIMITED RISK.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME FOG POTENTIAL AGAIN IN SOUTHEAST MS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS MOSTLY WELL UP IN THE 80S (ASIDE FROM
CLOUDIER LOCALES IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE OVERRIDING SIGNAL IN MODELS IS THAT POCKETS OF
VIGOROUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE OR SHIFT NORTH IN THE
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT CLOSER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INDUCE ENOUGH MOISTURE INFLUX TO BRING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO
AT LEAST WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT. /BB/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
FORECAST WILL FEATURE OFF AND ON RAIN/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH DRYING CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THIS WEEKEND, BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
OVER THE PLAINS EJECTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY. OUR AREA WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD IN A
WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME, WITH A COLD FRONT WELL
WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. ON SATURDAY MORNING A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (REMNANT FROM DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY) IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CWA AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. THIS FEATURE COULD COMPLICATE THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S SCENARIO). OUTSIDE OF
THE FEATURE, MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, WITH MORE OF AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE EVENING AS STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE MOVES OVER THE REGION. THROUGH THE DAY, UPPER FORCING/LLJ
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE, WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING IN MANY
AREAS. ANY STRONG STORMS WOULD BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY,
THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG
STORMS. GIVEN SHAKY CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION OF ACTIVITY SATURDAY, NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT LIMITED THREAT AREA HIGHLIGHTED
IN THE HWO.

BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST NW OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FROM THAT POINT THROUGH TUESDAY, MODEL SOLUTIONS
NOTABLY DIVERGE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. THE GFS/GEM SHOW
THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES
ESSENTIALLY ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL
DAWDLE OVER THE CWA WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. THERE
IS AT LEAST SOME AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME THAT MOST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION, SUGGESTING PRECIP
WOULD LIKELY BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND LESS ORGANIZED. THERE WILL
ALSO BE BROADER-SCALE LIFT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET
SITUATED ACROSS THE MO/OH VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEAR/ALONG
THE COAST. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT, IT COULD PORTEND A
POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW, WILL KEEP ISOLATED/SCATTERED POP IN THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY
GIVEN THE CURRENT LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY.

TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, SHOVING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD AND
CUTTING OFF RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT POCKETS OF MVFR DOWN TO LOCALLY LIFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. FLIGHT
CAT REDUCTIONS WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN AT PIB/HBG IN SE MS...BUT
HERE SOME SHOWERS AND A STRAY STORMS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION. FLIGHT CATS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE VFR IN ALL AREAS
BY 15 UTC TODAY WITH ONLY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REALLY
REMAINING CONFINED TO SOUTHEASTERN MS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  67  86  68 /  11  13  37  20
MERIDIAN      84  65  86  66 /  23  13  27  20
VICKSBURG     88  67  86  70 /   7  21  46  31
HATTIESBURG   85  69  88  68 /  52  22  17  12
NATCHEZ       86  70  86  70 /  17  19  27  25
GREENVILLE    85  65  80  68 /   3  12  63  52
GREENWOOD     86  63  81  67 /   3   7  53  39

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/DL





000
FXUS64 KJAN 280238 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
938 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...THE WAVE OF CONVECTION EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON CLEARED OUT
MUCH FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED OVER MOST OF OUR
CWA STILL AT 930PM THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA BUT DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST. WL MAINTAIN MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE RAIN THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IS LOW. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...CLR SKIES WERE BEING OBSERVED OVER MOST OF THE AREA AT
230Z BUT IFR CIGS AND A FEW -TSRA WL MOVE BACK OVER THE SE AFTER 07Z.
THE NW HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CONDS THROUGH THU. VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY 15Z THU. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

SHORT TERM...THE LINE OF STORMS IS NOW OUT OF THE CWA. DESPITE THE
AMPLE INSTABILITY AND GOOD LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE AREA, THIS LINE
OF STORMS UNDER-ACHIEVED GREATLY. DO NOT EXPECT REALLY ANY IN THE WAY
OF REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING NOW. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY POP UP
BUT THE INSTABILITY RECOVERY SEEMS TO BE NOT ENOUGH NOW. LATER
TONIGHT HOWEVER, SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS WILL TRIGGER ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD STALL OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS MEANS
THAT POPS WILL REMAIN IN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST MS BOTH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY
AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PROVIDE THE FORCING TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER IN
TX, OK, AR, AND LA. OUR CWA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS
ACTIVITY. WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE THIS WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND AT THIS POINT MAINLY EXPECT
IT TO ONLY AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. AS PW`S INCREASE TO
1.5+ INCHES FRIDAY, HEAVY RAIN RATES MAY BECOME A CONCERN. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY SEVERE OR FLASH FLOODING THREATS IN THE HWO YET DUE TO
THE NEED FOR MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY. THIS EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY THOUGH.

AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR CWA AND
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS. MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.

AS FOR TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM, HIGHS WILL BE VERY WARM (IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S) ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S,
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. /10/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
DAILY RAIN CHANCES IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR LATE SATURDAY. COULD GET A BREAK FROM THE
RAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY AND FORCING START TO
COME TOGETHER FOR SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWS
THAT WE WILL DEVELOP SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND GOOD LIFT BY MID
AFTERNOON SATURDAY IN THE WEST...WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
GOOD LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-50 KNOTS AS A MIDLEVEL JET OF 60 KNOTS
CROSSES THE CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT RETURN WILL BE
WEAKER ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE REGION...WHICH WAS SHOWN BY
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. WE MAY GET SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THE
WEST ON SATURDAY FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THE PRIMARY
RISKS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FLASH FLOODING AND
A FEW TORNADOES. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE
SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL AREA FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. IN ADDITIONS MODELS SHOWS THAT WE MAY GET SOME ADDITIONAL
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING
THE HEAVY RAIN RISK AT THIS TIME FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS WE GO
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCES OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WORK ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT
OUR RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WAS SHOWN BY THE EURO/GFS AND
CANADIAN.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WILL BE LOOKING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  87  66  86 /  12  15  15  49
MERIDIAN      66  85  64  86 /  18  34  16  42
VICKSBURG     66  87  68  86 /  10  10  15  50
HATTIESBURG   68  84  69  88 /  21  47  21  29
NATCHEZ       67  86  70  86 /  14  14  15  34
GREENVILLE    65  85  64  82 /   4   5  13  62
GREENWOOD     65  85  63  83 /   7   7   9  56

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/10/17





000
FXUS64 KJAN 280238 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
938 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...THE WAVE OF CONVECTION EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON CLEARED OUT
MUCH FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED OVER MOST OF OUR
CWA STILL AT 930PM THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA BUT DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST. WL MAINTAIN MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE RAIN THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IS LOW. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...CLR SKIES WERE BEING OBSERVED OVER MOST OF THE AREA AT
230Z BUT IFR CIGS AND A FEW -TSRA WL MOVE BACK OVER THE SE AFTER 07Z.
THE NW HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CONDS THROUGH THU. VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY 15Z THU. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

SHORT TERM...THE LINE OF STORMS IS NOW OUT OF THE CWA. DESPITE THE
AMPLE INSTABILITY AND GOOD LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE AREA, THIS LINE
OF STORMS UNDER-ACHIEVED GREATLY. DO NOT EXPECT REALLY ANY IN THE WAY
OF REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING NOW. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY POP UP
BUT THE INSTABILITY RECOVERY SEEMS TO BE NOT ENOUGH NOW. LATER
TONIGHT HOWEVER, SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS WILL TRIGGER ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD STALL OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS MEANS
THAT POPS WILL REMAIN IN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST MS BOTH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY
AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PROVIDE THE FORCING TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER IN
TX, OK, AR, AND LA. OUR CWA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS
ACTIVITY. WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE THIS WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND AT THIS POINT MAINLY EXPECT
IT TO ONLY AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. AS PW`S INCREASE TO
1.5+ INCHES FRIDAY, HEAVY RAIN RATES MAY BECOME A CONCERN. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY SEVERE OR FLASH FLOODING THREATS IN THE HWO YET DUE TO
THE NEED FOR MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY. THIS EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY THOUGH.

AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR CWA AND
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS. MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.

AS FOR TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM, HIGHS WILL BE VERY WARM (IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S) ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S,
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. /10/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
DAILY RAIN CHANCES IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR LATE SATURDAY. COULD GET A BREAK FROM THE
RAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY AND FORCING START TO
COME TOGETHER FOR SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWS
THAT WE WILL DEVELOP SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND GOOD LIFT BY MID
AFTERNOON SATURDAY IN THE WEST...WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
GOOD LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-50 KNOTS AS A MIDLEVEL JET OF 60 KNOTS
CROSSES THE CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT RETURN WILL BE
WEAKER ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE REGION...WHICH WAS SHOWN BY
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. WE MAY GET SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THE
WEST ON SATURDAY FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THE PRIMARY
RISKS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FLASH FLOODING AND
A FEW TORNADOES. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE
SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL AREA FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. IN ADDITIONS MODELS SHOWS THAT WE MAY GET SOME ADDITIONAL
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING
THE HEAVY RAIN RISK AT THIS TIME FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS WE GO
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCES OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WORK ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT
OUR RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WAS SHOWN BY THE EURO/GFS AND
CANADIAN.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WILL BE LOOKING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  87  66  86 /  12  15  15  49
MERIDIAN      66  85  64  86 /  18  34  16  42
VICKSBURG     66  87  68  86 /  10  10  15  50
HATTIESBURG   68  84  69  88 /  21  47  21  29
NATCHEZ       67  86  70  86 /  14  14  15  34
GREENVILLE    65  85  64  82 /   4   5  13  62
GREENWOOD     65  85  63  83 /   7   7   9  56

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/10/17





000
FXUS64 KJAN 272059
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
359 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...
THE LINE OF STORMS IS NOW OUT OF THE CWA. DESPITE THE AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND GOOD LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE AREA, THIS LINE OF
STORMS UNDER-ACHIEVED GREATLY. DO NOT EXPECT REALLY ANY IN THE WAY OF
REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING NOW. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY POP UP BUT
THE INSTABILITY RECOVERY SEEMS TO BE NOT ENOUGH NOW. LATER TONIGHT
HOWEVER, SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS WILL TRIGGER ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD STALL OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS MEANS THAT
POPS WILL REMAIN IN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST MS BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY
AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PROVIDE THE FORCING TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER IN
TX, OK, AR, AND LA. OUR CWA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS
ACTIVITY. WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE THIS WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND AT THIS POINT MAINLY EXPECT
IT TO ONLY AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. AS PW`S INCREASE TO
1.5+ INCHES FRIDAY, HEAVY RAIN RATES MAY BECOME A CONCERN. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY SEVERE OR FLASH FLOODING THREATS IN THE HWO YET DUE TO
THE NEED FOR MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY. THIS EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY THOUGH.

AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR CWA AND
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS. MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.

AS FOR TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM, HIGHS WILL BE VERY WARM (IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S) ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S,
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. /10/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR LATE SATURDAY.
COULD GET A BREAK FROM THE RAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY AND FORCING START TO
COME TOGETHER FOR SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWS
THAT WE WILL DEVELOP SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND GOOD LIFT BY MID
AFTERNOON SATURDAY IN THE WEST...WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
GOOD LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-50 KNOTS AS A MIDLEVEL JET OF 60 KNOTS
CROSSES THE CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT RETURN WILL BE
WEAKER ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE REGION...WHICH WAS SHOWN BY
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. WE MAY GET SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THE
WEST ON SATURDAY FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THE PRIMARY
RISKS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...FLASH FLOODING AND
A FEW TORNADOES. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE
SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL AREA FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. IN ADDITIONS MODELS SHOWS THAT WE MAY GET SOME ADDITIONAL
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING
THE HEAVY RAIN RISK AT THIS TIME FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS WE GO
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCES OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATER HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WORK ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT
OUR RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WAS SHOWN BY THE EURO/GFS AND
CANADIAN.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WILL BE LOOKING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S./17/

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS...THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS
BUT EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO REDEVELOP AND BRING IFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND SE OF THE JAN/CBM
LINE. A FEW SHRA/TSRA COULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL BUT
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN WHERE THIS WILL HAPPEN. CIGS WILL BREAK UP
AND MIX OUT MID/LATE THURS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER
MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  87  66  86 /  47  15  15  49
MERIDIAN      66  85  64  86 /  46  34  16  42
VICKSBURG     66  87  68  86 /  34  10  15  50
HATTIESBURG   68  84  69  88 /  47  47  21  29
NATCHEZ       67  86  70  86 /  40  14  15  34
GREENVILLE    65  85  64  82 /  13   5  13  62
GREENWOOD     65  85  63  83 /  39   7   9  56

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

10/17/EC





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