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000
FXUS64 KJAN 271530 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1030 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...MORNING MCS MOVING ACROSS MY LOUISIANA PARISHES IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING AND DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FLOODING IN CHICOT COUNTY. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MORNING MCS WILL HAVE
SOME INFLUENCE IN HOW THIS AFTERNOON EVOLVES BUT I FEEL THAT THE
CURRENT SCENARIO AS PRESENTED BY THE HRRR SHOWS IT FAIRLY WELL. THIS
MCS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST. IT SHOULD LAY
OUT SOME KIND OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL HELP INITIATE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON FURTHER EAST IN AN AIRMASS THAT HAS LARELY BEEN UNTAPPED BY
THIS MORNING CONVECTION. THIS AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR...WILL HAVE HAD SUFFICIENT TIME TO HEAT UP AS
READINGS IN THAT AREA ARE ALREADY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. MORNING
SOUNDING/MICROBURST ANALYSIS INDICATED A RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT
THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO WITH VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND
28-29C...ROUGHLY 3000-4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND
-8 TO -9 AMONG OTHER PARAMETERS. THIS GAVE A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
MICROBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON OFF OF LOCAL MICROBURST CHECKLIST. HAVE
UPGRADED OUR HAZARD GRAPHICS/HWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI TO AN ELEVATED RISK. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
CONVECTION/SEVERE RISK WILL BE WITH HAIL UP TO GOLFBALLS AND WIND
GUSTS TO 60MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STORM
THAT MOVES SLOWLY OR CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. TO THE
WEST OF I-55...EXPECT THAT MORNING CONVECTION WILL HAVE STABILIZED
THAT AREA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY DRY OUT
AND WARM UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE EAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WARM UP BEFORE CONVECTION AFFECTS TEMPERATURES THERE. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MID MORNING WITH A TRANSITION TO
A MVFR/VFR COMBO INTO AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE TIMING TSRA
AND RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT. THE ONE THING WHERE
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A STEADY PUSH FROM THE
WEST TO GET RAIN/STORMS OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCH
OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE QUIET AND WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 07-
09Z...THERE COULD BE SOME VIS/CIG ISSUES WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO MATCH THE
CURRENT TRENDS OF THE STORM COMPLEX COMING INTO THE W/SW. ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TO SHOW THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND LACK OF PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE W LATER.
HOURLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL TO BETTER MATCH TRENDS. AN UPDATE
TO THE HAZARD GRAPHICS WILL BE FORTH COMING AFTER SOME ANALYSIS AND
LATEST THINKING IS THE MAIN RISK WILL BE FOR THE E HALF BETWEEN THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. 12Z JAN RAOB IS QUITE UNSTABLE AND THE E
COULD SEE SOME NASTY STORMS. LOOK FOR ANOTHER UPDATE WITH MORE
SPECIFICS A BIT LATER IN THE MORNING. /CME/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LATEST VAPOR AND IR
IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN UPPER BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH MEAN UPPER RIDGING NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS OVER THAT AREA.   A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WAS ROTATING ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO PICK UP DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES. MODEL AND 00Z SNDGS WERE
CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME IMPRESSIVE FLOW INT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
FOR LATE MAY ESP WEST OF THE REGION.

FOR TODAY...HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS THAT THE MCS OVER
TEXAS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MERGE WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME GOOD CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS SHOWS GOOD LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7C WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR(0-6
KM)OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AS WELL AS 0-3 KM SHEAR OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS TRIES TO OVERDO THE SBCAPES OF 4-5KFT AND
SHOWALTERS INDEX OF -5 TO -6 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. IT WILL PROBABLY MORE LIKE 2-3KFT AND SHOWALTERS OF -1 TO -3
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS VERIFIED BY
MODEL SNDGS. SO WITH THIS IN MIND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. SO WILL KEEP THE LIMITED RISK
GRAPHIC GOING WITH THE PRIMARY RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND QUARTER
SIZED HAIL FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWS LESS
INSTABILITY AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES FOR MORE OF A DIURNAL MODE FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE SFC RIDGE FROM
THE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE CWA WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS A BIT FOR
THURSDAY. /17/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE RIDGING BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AND HELP MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS OVER OUR
CWA WITH PWATS AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS AND DEW POINTS
AROUND 70F THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY
EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN GULF NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FRIDAY BUT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OVER OUR REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF DEVELOPING
A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY AND INSTEAD SUGGEST A
WEAK CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR CWA BY MONDAY AND THEN DRIFT THIS
LOW TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE DURING THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL HELP DEVELOP AT LEAST ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY. ABOVE NORMAL MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  68  85  68 /  77  32  47  20
MERIDIAN      85  67  85  67 /  81  35  48  20
VICKSBURG     87  69  86  69 /  99  34  47  20
HATTIESBURG   86  69  87  69 /  80  35  53  20
NATCHEZ       87  69  85  70 /  99  36  51  20
GREENVILLE    86  69  85  70 /  99  33  42  20
GREENWOOD     85  69  85  69 /  72  32  46  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/CME/22/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 271530 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1030 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...MORNING MCS MOVING ACROSS MY LOUISIANA PARISHES IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING AND DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FLOODING IN CHICOT COUNTY. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MORNING MCS WILL HAVE
SOME INFLUENCE IN HOW THIS AFTERNOON EVOLVES BUT I FEEL THAT THE
CURRENT SCENARIO AS PRESENTED BY THE HRRR SHOWS IT FAIRLY WELL. THIS
MCS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST. IT SHOULD LAY
OUT SOME KIND OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL HELP INITIATE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON FURTHER EAST IN AN AIRMASS THAT HAS LARELY BEEN UNTAPPED BY
THIS MORNING CONVECTION. THIS AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR...WILL HAVE HAD SUFFICIENT TIME TO HEAT UP AS
READINGS IN THAT AREA ARE ALREADY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. MORNING
SOUNDING/MICROBURST ANALYSIS INDICATED A RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT
THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO WITH VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND
28-29C...ROUGHLY 3000-4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND
-8 TO -9 AMONG OTHER PARAMETERS. THIS GAVE A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
MICROBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON OFF OF LOCAL MICROBURST CHECKLIST. HAVE
UPGRADED OUR HAZARD GRAPHICS/HWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI TO AN ELEVATED RISK. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
CONVECTION/SEVERE RISK WILL BE WITH HAIL UP TO GOLFBALLS AND WIND
GUSTS TO 60MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STORM
THAT MOVES SLOWLY OR CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. TO THE
WEST OF I-55...EXPECT THAT MORNING CONVECTION WILL HAVE STABILIZED
THAT AREA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY DRY OUT
AND WARM UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE EAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WARM UP BEFORE CONVECTION AFFECTS TEMPERATURES THERE. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MID MORNING WITH A TRANSITION TO
A MVFR/VFR COMBO INTO AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE TIMING TSRA
AND RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT. THE ONE THING WHERE
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A STEADY PUSH FROM THE
WEST TO GET RAIN/STORMS OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCH
OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE QUIET AND WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 07-
09Z...THERE COULD BE SOME VIS/CIG ISSUES WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO MATCH THE
CURRENT TRENDS OF THE STORM COMPLEX COMING INTO THE W/SW. ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TO SHOW THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND LACK OF PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE W LATER.
HOURLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL TO BETTER MATCH TRENDS. AN UPDATE
TO THE HAZARD GRAPHICS WILL BE FORTH COMING AFTER SOME ANALYSIS AND
LATEST THINKING IS THE MAIN RISK WILL BE FOR THE E HALF BETWEEN THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. 12Z JAN RAOB IS QUITE UNSTABLE AND THE E
COULD SEE SOME NASTY STORMS. LOOK FOR ANOTHER UPDATE WITH MORE
SPECIFICS A BIT LATER IN THE MORNING. /CME/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LATEST VAPOR AND IR
IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN UPPER BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH MEAN UPPER RIDGING NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS OVER THAT AREA.   A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WAS ROTATING ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO PICK UP DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES. MODEL AND 00Z SNDGS WERE
CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME IMPRESSIVE FLOW INT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
FOR LATE MAY ESP WEST OF THE REGION.

FOR TODAY...HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS THAT THE MCS OVER
TEXAS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MERGE WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME GOOD CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS SHOWS GOOD LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7C WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR(0-6
KM)OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AS WELL AS 0-3 KM SHEAR OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS TRIES TO OVERDO THE SBCAPES OF 4-5KFT AND
SHOWALTERS INDEX OF -5 TO -6 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. IT WILL PROBABLY MORE LIKE 2-3KFT AND SHOWALTERS OF -1 TO -3
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS VERIFIED BY
MODEL SNDGS. SO WITH THIS IN MIND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. SO WILL KEEP THE LIMITED RISK
GRAPHIC GOING WITH THE PRIMARY RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND QUARTER
SIZED HAIL FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWS LESS
INSTABILITY AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES FOR MORE OF A DIURNAL MODE FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE SFC RIDGE FROM
THE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE CWA WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS A BIT FOR
THURSDAY. /17/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE RIDGING BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AND HELP MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS OVER OUR
CWA WITH PWATS AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS AND DEW POINTS
AROUND 70F THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY
EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN GULF NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FRIDAY BUT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OVER OUR REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF DEVELOPING
A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY AND INSTEAD SUGGEST A
WEAK CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR CWA BY MONDAY AND THEN DRIFT THIS
LOW TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE DURING THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL HELP DEVELOP AT LEAST ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY. ABOVE NORMAL MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  68  85  68 /  77  32  47  20
MERIDIAN      85  67  85  67 /  81  35  48  20
VICKSBURG     87  69  86  69 /  99  34  47  20
HATTIESBURG   86  69  87  69 /  80  35  53  20
NATCHEZ       87  69  85  70 /  99  36  51  20
GREENVILLE    86  69  85  70 /  99  33  42  20
GREENWOOD     85  69  85  69 /  72  32  46  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/CME/22/17





000
FXUS64 KJAN 271530 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1030 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...MORNING MCS MOVING ACROSS MY LOUISIANA PARISHES IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING AND DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FLOODING IN CHICOT COUNTY. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MORNING MCS WILL HAVE
SOME INFLUENCE IN HOW THIS AFTERNOON EVOLVES BUT I FEEL THAT THE
CURRENT SCENARIO AS PRESENTED BY THE HRRR SHOWS IT FAIRLY WELL. THIS
MCS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST. IT SHOULD LAY
OUT SOME KIND OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL HELP INITIATE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON FURTHER EAST IN AN AIRMASS THAT HAS LARELY BEEN UNTAPPED BY
THIS MORNING CONVECTION. THIS AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR...WILL HAVE HAD SUFFICIENT TIME TO HEAT UP AS
READINGS IN THAT AREA ARE ALREADY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. MORNING
SOUNDING/MICROBURST ANALYSIS INDICATED A RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT
THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO WITH VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND
28-29C...ROUGHLY 3000-4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND
-8 TO -9 AMONG OTHER PARAMETERS. THIS GAVE A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
MICROBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON OFF OF LOCAL MICROBURST CHECKLIST. HAVE
UPGRADED OUR HAZARD GRAPHICS/HWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI TO AN ELEVATED RISK. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
CONVECTION/SEVERE RISK WILL BE WITH HAIL UP TO GOLFBALLS AND WIND
GUSTS TO 60MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STORM
THAT MOVES SLOWLY OR CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. TO THE
WEST OF I-55...EXPECT THAT MORNING CONVECTION WILL HAVE STABILIZED
THAT AREA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY DRY OUT
AND WARM UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE EAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WARM UP BEFORE CONVECTION AFFECTS TEMPERATURES THERE. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MID MORNING WITH A TRANSITION TO
A MVFR/VFR COMBO INTO AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE TIMING TSRA
AND RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT. THE ONE THING WHERE
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A STEADY PUSH FROM THE
WEST TO GET RAIN/STORMS OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCH
OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE QUIET AND WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 07-
09Z...THERE COULD BE SOME VIS/CIG ISSUES WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO MATCH THE
CURRENT TRENDS OF THE STORM COMPLEX COMING INTO THE W/SW. ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TO SHOW THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND LACK OF PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE W LATER.
HOURLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL TO BETTER MATCH TRENDS. AN UPDATE
TO THE HAZARD GRAPHICS WILL BE FORTH COMING AFTER SOME ANALYSIS AND
LATEST THINKING IS THE MAIN RISK WILL BE FOR THE E HALF BETWEEN THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. 12Z JAN RAOB IS QUITE UNSTABLE AND THE E
COULD SEE SOME NASTY STORMS. LOOK FOR ANOTHER UPDATE WITH MORE
SPECIFICS A BIT LATER IN THE MORNING. /CME/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LATEST VAPOR AND IR
IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN UPPER BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH MEAN UPPER RIDGING NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS OVER THAT AREA.   A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WAS ROTATING ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO PICK UP DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES. MODEL AND 00Z SNDGS WERE
CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME IMPRESSIVE FLOW INT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
FOR LATE MAY ESP WEST OF THE REGION.

FOR TODAY...HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS THAT THE MCS OVER
TEXAS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MERGE WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME GOOD CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS SHOWS GOOD LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7C WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR(0-6
KM)OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AS WELL AS 0-3 KM SHEAR OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS TRIES TO OVERDO THE SBCAPES OF 4-5KFT AND
SHOWALTERS INDEX OF -5 TO -6 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. IT WILL PROBABLY MORE LIKE 2-3KFT AND SHOWALTERS OF -1 TO -3
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS VERIFIED BY
MODEL SNDGS. SO WITH THIS IN MIND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. SO WILL KEEP THE LIMITED RISK
GRAPHIC GOING WITH THE PRIMARY RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND QUARTER
SIZED HAIL FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWS LESS
INSTABILITY AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES FOR MORE OF A DIURNAL MODE FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE SFC RIDGE FROM
THE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE CWA WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS A BIT FOR
THURSDAY. /17/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE RIDGING BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AND HELP MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS OVER OUR
CWA WITH PWATS AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS AND DEW POINTS
AROUND 70F THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY
EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN GULF NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FRIDAY BUT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OVER OUR REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF DEVELOPING
A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY AND INSTEAD SUGGEST A
WEAK CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR CWA BY MONDAY AND THEN DRIFT THIS
LOW TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE DURING THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL HELP DEVELOP AT LEAST ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY. ABOVE NORMAL MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  68  85  68 /  77  32  47  20
MERIDIAN      85  67  85  67 /  81  35  48  20
VICKSBURG     87  69  86  69 /  99  34  47  20
HATTIESBURG   86  69  87  69 /  80  35  53  20
NATCHEZ       87  69  85  70 /  99  36  51  20
GREENVILLE    86  69  85  70 /  99  33  42  20
GREENWOOD     85  69  85  69 /  72  32  46  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/CME/22/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 271530 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1030 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...MORNING MCS MOVING ACROSS MY LOUISIANA PARISHES IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING AND DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FLOODING IN CHICOT COUNTY. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MORNING MCS WILL HAVE
SOME INFLUENCE IN HOW THIS AFTERNOON EVOLVES BUT I FEEL THAT THE
CURRENT SCENARIO AS PRESENTED BY THE HRRR SHOWS IT FAIRLY WELL. THIS
MCS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST. IT SHOULD LAY
OUT SOME KIND OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL HELP INITIATE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON FURTHER EAST IN AN AIRMASS THAT HAS LARELY BEEN UNTAPPED BY
THIS MORNING CONVECTION. THIS AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR...WILL HAVE HAD SUFFICIENT TIME TO HEAT UP AS
READINGS IN THAT AREA ARE ALREADY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. MORNING
SOUNDING/MICROBURST ANALYSIS INDICATED A RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT
THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO WITH VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND
28-29C...ROUGHLY 3000-4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND
-8 TO -9 AMONG OTHER PARAMETERS. THIS GAVE A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
MICROBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON OFF OF LOCAL MICROBURST CHECKLIST. HAVE
UPGRADED OUR HAZARD GRAPHICS/HWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI TO AN ELEVATED RISK. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
CONVECTION/SEVERE RISK WILL BE WITH HAIL UP TO GOLFBALLS AND WIND
GUSTS TO 60MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STORM
THAT MOVES SLOWLY OR CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. TO THE
WEST OF I-55...EXPECT THAT MORNING CONVECTION WILL HAVE STABILIZED
THAT AREA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY DRY OUT
AND WARM UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE EAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WARM UP BEFORE CONVECTION AFFECTS TEMPERATURES THERE. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MID MORNING WITH A TRANSITION TO
A MVFR/VFR COMBO INTO AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE TIMING TSRA
AND RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT. THE ONE THING WHERE
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A STEADY PUSH FROM THE
WEST TO GET RAIN/STORMS OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCH
OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE QUIET AND WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 07-
09Z...THERE COULD BE SOME VIS/CIG ISSUES WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO MATCH THE
CURRENT TRENDS OF THE STORM COMPLEX COMING INTO THE W/SW. ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TO SHOW THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND LACK OF PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE W LATER.
HOURLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL TO BETTER MATCH TRENDS. AN UPDATE
TO THE HAZARD GRAPHICS WILL BE FORTH COMING AFTER SOME ANALYSIS AND
LATEST THINKING IS THE MAIN RISK WILL BE FOR THE E HALF BETWEEN THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. 12Z JAN RAOB IS QUITE UNSTABLE AND THE E
COULD SEE SOME NASTY STORMS. LOOK FOR ANOTHER UPDATE WITH MORE
SPECIFICS A BIT LATER IN THE MORNING. /CME/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LATEST VAPOR AND IR
IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN UPPER BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH MEAN UPPER RIDGING NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS OVER THAT AREA.   A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WAS ROTATING ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO PICK UP DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES. MODEL AND 00Z SNDGS WERE
CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME IMPRESSIVE FLOW INT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
FOR LATE MAY ESP WEST OF THE REGION.

FOR TODAY...HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS THAT THE MCS OVER
TEXAS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MERGE WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME GOOD CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS SHOWS GOOD LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7C WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR(0-6
KM)OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AS WELL AS 0-3 KM SHEAR OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS TRIES TO OVERDO THE SBCAPES OF 4-5KFT AND
SHOWALTERS INDEX OF -5 TO -6 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. IT WILL PROBABLY MORE LIKE 2-3KFT AND SHOWALTERS OF -1 TO -3
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS VERIFIED BY
MODEL SNDGS. SO WITH THIS IN MIND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. SO WILL KEEP THE LIMITED RISK
GRAPHIC GOING WITH THE PRIMARY RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND QUARTER
SIZED HAIL FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWS LESS
INSTABILITY AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES FOR MORE OF A DIURNAL MODE FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE SFC RIDGE FROM
THE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE CWA WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS A BIT FOR
THURSDAY. /17/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE RIDGING BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AND HELP MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS OVER OUR
CWA WITH PWATS AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS AND DEW POINTS
AROUND 70F THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY
EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN GULF NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FRIDAY BUT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OVER OUR REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF DEVELOPING
A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY AND INSTEAD SUGGEST A
WEAK CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR CWA BY MONDAY AND THEN DRIFT THIS
LOW TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE DURING THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL HELP DEVELOP AT LEAST ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY. ABOVE NORMAL MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  68  85  68 /  77  32  47  20
MERIDIAN      85  67  85  67 /  81  35  48  20
VICKSBURG     87  69  86  69 /  99  34  47  20
HATTIESBURG   86  69  87  69 /  80  35  53  20
NATCHEZ       87  69  85  70 /  99  36  51  20
GREENVILLE    86  69  85  70 /  99  33  42  20
GREENWOOD     85  69  85  69 /  72  32  46  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/CME/22/17





000
FXUS64 KJAN 271340 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
840 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO MATCH THE
CURRENT TRENDS OF THE STORM COMPLEX COMING INTO THE W/SW. ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TO SHOW THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND LACK OF PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE W LATER.
HOURLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL TO BETTER MATCH TRENDS. AN UPDATE
TO THE HAZARD GRAPHICS WILL BE FORTH COMING AFTER SOME ANALYSIS AND
LATEST THINKING IS THE MAIN RISK WILL BE FOR THE E HALF BETWEEN THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. 12Z JAN RAOB IS QUITE UNSTABLE AND THE E
COULD SEE SOME NASTY STORMS. LOOK FOR ANOTHER UPDATE WITH MORE
SPECIFICS A BIT LATER IN THE MORNING. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LATEST VAPOR AND IR
IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN UPPER BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH MEAN UPPER RIDGING NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS OVER THAT AREA.   A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WAS ROTATING ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO PICK UP DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES. MODEL AND 00Z SNDGS WERE
CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME IMPRESSIVE FLOW INT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
FOR LATE MAY ESP WEST OF THE REGION.

FOR TODAY...HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS THAT THE MCS OVER
TEXAS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MERGE WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME GOOD CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS SHOWS GOOD LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7C WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR(0-6
KM)OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AS WELL AS 0-3 KM SHEAR OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS TRIES TO OVERDO THE SBCAPES OF 4-5KFT AND
SHOWALTERS INDEX OF -5 TO -6 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. IT WILL PROBABLY MORE LIKE 2-3KFT AND SHOWALTERS OF -1 TO -3
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS VERIFIED BY
MODEL SNDGS. SO WITH THIS IN MIND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. SO WILL KEEP THE LIMITED RISK
GRAPHIC GOING WITH THE PRIMARY RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND QUARTER
SIZED HAIL FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWS LESS
INSTABILITY AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES FOR MORE OF A DIURNAL MODE FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE SFC RIDGE FROM
THE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE CWA WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS A BIT FOR
THURSDAY. /17/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE RIDGING BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AND HELP MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS OVER OUR
CWA WITH PWATS AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS AND DEW POINTS
AROUND 70F THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY
EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN GULF NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FRIDAY BUT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OVER OUR REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF DEVELOPING
A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY AND INSTEAD SUGGEST A
WEAK CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR CWA BY MONDAY AND THEN DRIFT THIS
LOW TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE DURING THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL HELP DEVELOP AT LEAST ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY. ABOVE NORMAL MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL. /22/

AVIATION...PRIOR TO DAWN MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
EAST. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH AS PUSH
TOWARD THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
IN DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE CONVECTION EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  68  85  68 /  78  32  47  20
MERIDIAN      85  67  85  67 /  79  35  48  20
VICKSBURG     87  69  86  69 /  82  34  47  20
HATTIESBURG   86  69  87  69 /  79  35  53  20
NATCHEZ       87  69  85  70 /  87  36  51  20
GREENVILLE    86  69  85  70 /  65  33  42  20
GREENWOOD     85  69  85  69 /  72  32  46  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/JAN





000
FXUS64 KJAN 271340 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
840 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO MATCH THE
CURRENT TRENDS OF THE STORM COMPLEX COMING INTO THE W/SW. ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TO SHOW THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND LACK OF PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE W LATER.
HOURLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL TO BETTER MATCH TRENDS. AN UPDATE
TO THE HAZARD GRAPHICS WILL BE FORTH COMING AFTER SOME ANALYSIS AND
LATEST THINKING IS THE MAIN RISK WILL BE FOR THE E HALF BETWEEN THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. 12Z JAN RAOB IS QUITE UNSTABLE AND THE E
COULD SEE SOME NASTY STORMS. LOOK FOR ANOTHER UPDATE WITH MORE
SPECIFICS A BIT LATER IN THE MORNING. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LATEST VAPOR AND IR
IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN UPPER BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH MEAN UPPER RIDGING NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS OVER THAT AREA.   A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WAS ROTATING ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO PICK UP DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES. MODEL AND 00Z SNDGS WERE
CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME IMPRESSIVE FLOW INT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
FOR LATE MAY ESP WEST OF THE REGION.

FOR TODAY...HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS THAT THE MCS OVER
TEXAS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MERGE WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME GOOD CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS SHOWS GOOD LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7C WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR(0-6
KM)OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AS WELL AS 0-3 KM SHEAR OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS TRIES TO OVERDO THE SBCAPES OF 4-5KFT AND
SHOWALTERS INDEX OF -5 TO -6 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. IT WILL PROBABLY MORE LIKE 2-3KFT AND SHOWALTERS OF -1 TO -3
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS VERIFIED BY
MODEL SNDGS. SO WITH THIS IN MIND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. SO WILL KEEP THE LIMITED RISK
GRAPHIC GOING WITH THE PRIMARY RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND QUARTER
SIZED HAIL FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWS LESS
INSTABILITY AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES FOR MORE OF A DIURNAL MODE FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE SFC RIDGE FROM
THE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE CWA WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS A BIT FOR
THURSDAY. /17/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE RIDGING BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AND HELP MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS OVER OUR
CWA WITH PWATS AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS AND DEW POINTS
AROUND 70F THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY
EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN GULF NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FRIDAY BUT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OVER OUR REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF DEVELOPING
A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY AND INSTEAD SUGGEST A
WEAK CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR CWA BY MONDAY AND THEN DRIFT THIS
LOW TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE DURING THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL HELP DEVELOP AT LEAST ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY. ABOVE NORMAL MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL. /22/

AVIATION...PRIOR TO DAWN MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
EAST. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH AS PUSH
TOWARD THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
IN DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE CONVECTION EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  68  85  68 /  78  32  47  20
MERIDIAN      85  67  85  67 /  79  35  48  20
VICKSBURG     87  69  86  69 /  82  34  47  20
HATTIESBURG   86  69  87  69 /  79  35  53  20
NATCHEZ       87  69  85  70 /  87  36  51  20
GREENVILLE    86  69  85  70 /  65  33  42  20
GREENWOOD     85  69  85  69 /  72  32  46  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/JAN




000
FXUS64 KJAN 270858
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
358 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LATEST VAPOR AND IR
IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN UPPER BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH MEAN UPPER RIDGING NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS OVER THAT AREA.   A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WAS ROTATING ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO PICK UP DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES. MODEL AND 00Z SNDGS WERE
CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME IMPRESSIVE FLOW INT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
FOR LATE MAY ESP WEST OF THE REGION.

FOR TODAY...HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS THAT THE MCS OVER
TEXAS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MERGE WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME GOOD CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS SHOWS GOOD LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7C WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR(0-6
KM)OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AS WELL AS 0-3 KM SHEAR OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS TRIES TO OVERDO THE SBCAPES OF 4-5KFT AND
SHOWALTERS INDEX OF -5 TO -6 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. IT WILL PROBABLY MORE LIKE 2-3KFT AND SHOWALTERS OF -1 TO -3
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS VERIFIED BY
MODEL SNDGS. SO WITH THIS IN MIND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. SO WILL KEEP THE LIMITED RISK
GRAPHIC GOING WITH THE PRIMARY RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND QUARTER
SIZED HAIL FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWS LESS
INSTABILITY AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES FOR MORE OF A DIURNAL MODE FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE SFC RIDGE FROM
THE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE CWA WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS A BIT FOR
THURSDAY. /17/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE RIDGING BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AND HELP MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS OVER OUR
CWA WITH PWATS AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS AND DEW POINTS
AROUND 70F THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY
EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN GULF NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FRIDAY BUT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OVER OUR REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF DEVELOPING
A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY AND INSTEAD SUGGEST A
WEAK CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR CWA BY MONDAY AND THEN DRIFT THIS
LOW TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE DURING THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL HELP DEVELOP AT LEAST ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY. ABOVE NORMAL MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...PRIOR TO DAWN MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
EAST. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH AS PUSH
TOWARD THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
IN DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE CONVECTION EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  68  85  68 /  51  32  47  20
MERIDIAN      85  67  85  67 /  53  35  48  20
VICKSBURG     87  69  86  69 /  50  34  47  20
HATTIESBURG   86  69  87  69 /  58  35  53  20
NATCHEZ       87  69  85  70 /  50  36  51  20
GREENVILLE    86  69  85  70 /  51  33  42  20
GREENWOOD     85  69  85  69 /  50  32  46  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/22/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 270858
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
358 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LATEST VAPOR AND IR
IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN UPPER BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH MEAN UPPER RIDGING NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS OVER THAT AREA.   A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WAS ROTATING ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO PICK UP DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES. MODEL AND 00Z SNDGS WERE
CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME IMPRESSIVE FLOW INT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
FOR LATE MAY ESP WEST OF THE REGION.

FOR TODAY...HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS THAT THE MCS OVER
TEXAS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MERGE WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME GOOD CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS SHOWS GOOD LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7C WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR(0-6
KM)OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AS WELL AS 0-3 KM SHEAR OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS TRIES TO OVERDO THE SBCAPES OF 4-5KFT AND
SHOWALTERS INDEX OF -5 TO -6 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. IT WILL PROBABLY MORE LIKE 2-3KFT AND SHOWALTERS OF -1 TO -3
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS VERIFIED BY
MODEL SNDGS. SO WITH THIS IN MIND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. SO WILL KEEP THE LIMITED RISK
GRAPHIC GOING WITH THE PRIMARY RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND QUARTER
SIZED HAIL FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWS LESS
INSTABILITY AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES FOR MORE OF A DIURNAL MODE FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE SFC RIDGE FROM
THE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE CWA WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS A BIT FOR
THURSDAY. /17/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE RIDGING BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AND HELP MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS OVER OUR
CWA WITH PWATS AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS AND DEW POINTS
AROUND 70F THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY
EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN GULF NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FRIDAY BUT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OVER OUR REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF DEVELOPING
A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY AND INSTEAD SUGGEST A
WEAK CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR CWA BY MONDAY AND THEN DRIFT THIS
LOW TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE DURING THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL HELP DEVELOP AT LEAST ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY. ABOVE NORMAL MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...PRIOR TO DAWN MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
EAST. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH AS PUSH
TOWARD THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
IN DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE CONVECTION EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  68  85  68 /  51  32  47  20
MERIDIAN      85  67  85  67 /  53  35  48  20
VICKSBURG     87  69  86  69 /  50  34  47  20
HATTIESBURG   86  69  87  69 /  58  35  53  20
NATCHEZ       87  69  85  70 /  50  36  51  20
GREENVILLE    86  69  85  70 /  51  33  42  20
GREENWOOD     85  69  85  69 /  50  32  46  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/22/17





000
FXUS64 KJAN 270858
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
358 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LATEST VAPOR AND IR
IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN UPPER BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH MEAN UPPER RIDGING NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS OVER THAT AREA.   A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WAS ROTATING ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO PICK UP DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES. MODEL AND 00Z SNDGS WERE
CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME IMPRESSIVE FLOW INT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
FOR LATE MAY ESP WEST OF THE REGION.

FOR TODAY...HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS THAT THE MCS OVER
TEXAS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MERGE WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME GOOD CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS SHOWS GOOD LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7C WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR(0-6
KM)OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AS WELL AS 0-3 KM SHEAR OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS TRIES TO OVERDO THE SBCAPES OF 4-5KFT AND
SHOWALTERS INDEX OF -5 TO -6 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. IT WILL PROBABLY MORE LIKE 2-3KFT AND SHOWALTERS OF -1 TO -3
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS VERIFIED BY
MODEL SNDGS. SO WITH THIS IN MIND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. SO WILL KEEP THE LIMITED RISK
GRAPHIC GOING WITH THE PRIMARY RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND QUARTER
SIZED HAIL FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWS LESS
INSTABILITY AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES FOR MORE OF A DIURNAL MODE FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE SFC RIDGE FROM
THE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE CWA WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS A BIT FOR
THURSDAY. /17/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE RIDGING BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AND HELP MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS OVER OUR
CWA WITH PWATS AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS AND DEW POINTS
AROUND 70F THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY
EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN GULF NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FRIDAY BUT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OVER OUR REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF DEVELOPING
A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY AND INSTEAD SUGGEST A
WEAK CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR CWA BY MONDAY AND THEN DRIFT THIS
LOW TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE DURING THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL HELP DEVELOP AT LEAST ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY. ABOVE NORMAL MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...PRIOR TO DAWN MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
EAST. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH AS PUSH
TOWARD THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
IN DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE CONVECTION EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  68  85  68 /  51  32  47  20
MERIDIAN      85  67  85  67 /  53  35  48  20
VICKSBURG     87  69  86  69 /  50  34  47  20
HATTIESBURG   86  69  87  69 /  58  35  53  20
NATCHEZ       87  69  85  70 /  50  36  51  20
GREENVILLE    86  69  85  70 /  51  33  42  20
GREENWOOD     85  69  85  69 /  50  32  46  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/22/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 270215
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
915 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. UPDATED THE
HOURLY VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS
REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND THERE WAS A LIGHT BREEZE SO LOWS AROUND 70
SEEM GOOD. OPTED NOT TO ADJUST POPS...SLIGHT TO CHANCE SEEMED GOOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SLOWLY SPREAD EAST. LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG STORMS SHOULD
MISS THE CWA. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WAS GOOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  86  68  85 /  23  47  22  51
MERIDIAN      67  86  67  85 /  21  54  23  50
VICKSBURG     67  87  68  86 /  29  43  23  50
HATTIESBURG   69  86  68  86 /  32  58  28  58
NATCHEZ       68  86  69  85 /  34  49  25  58
GREENVILLE    69  86  69  86 /  20  39  23  42
GREENWOOD     68  85  68  85 /  20  43  23  45

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 270215
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
915 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. UPDATED THE
HOURLY VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS
REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND THERE WAS A LIGHT BREEZE SO LOWS AROUND 70
SEEM GOOD. OPTED NOT TO ADJUST POPS...SLIGHT TO CHANCE SEEMED GOOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SLOWLY SPREAD EAST. LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG STORMS SHOULD
MISS THE CWA. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WAS GOOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  86  68  85 /  23  47  22  51
MERIDIAN      67  86  67  85 /  21  54  23  50
VICKSBURG     67  87  68  86 /  29  43  23  50
HATTIESBURG   69  86  68  86 /  32  58  28  58
NATCHEZ       68  86  69  85 /  34  49  25  58
GREENVILLE    69  86  69  86 /  20  39  23  42
GREENWOOD     68  85  68  85 /  20  43  23  45

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 270215
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
915 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. UPDATED THE
HOURLY VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS
REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND THERE WAS A LIGHT BREEZE SO LOWS AROUND 70
SEEM GOOD. OPTED NOT TO ADJUST POPS...SLIGHT TO CHANCE SEEMED GOOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SLOWLY SPREAD EAST. LOOKS LIKE THE STRONG STORMS SHOULD
MISS THE CWA. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WAS GOOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  86  68  85 /  23  47  22  51
MERIDIAN      67  86  67  85 /  21  54  23  50
VICKSBURG     67  87  68  86 /  29  43  23  50
HATTIESBURG   69  86  68  86 /  32  58  28  58
NATCHEZ       68  86  69  85 /  34  49  25  58
GREENVILLE    69  86  69  86 /  20  39  23  42
GREENWOOD     68  85  68  85 /  20  43  23  45

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 262048
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
348 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS NOW LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 84/98
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS BECOME A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER NOW HAVING
EXITED THE REGION. THIS ALL THANKS LARGELY TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
MCS THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND SOME RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE IS
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE STILL RESIDES AND THERE HAS BEEN GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR
DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY TONIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO JUST BE ISOLATED.

WEDNESDAY WE EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN TO GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
DURING THE DAY. THOUGH MORE RESPECTABLE FORCING WILL BE PULLING AWAY
FROM THE REGION...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING GOOD LAPSE RATES WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ISN`T EXPECTED TO BE
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20-25
KT RANGE...BUT THIS SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A GOOD AMOUNT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES/GREATER INSTABILITY...
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...THUS WE ARE HIGHLIGHTING A
LIMITED RISK ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BUT WE WILL REMAIN ON THE
RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP A RATHER MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED SCATTERED CONVECTION...WHICH WILL GENERALLY BE MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERSISTENT
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND DEAMPLIFY. THIS WILL NUDGE A SURFACE FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA WHICH COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR PRECIP AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO AREA THIS MORNING IN
WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHRA OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS GIVING WAY TO CLEARING FROM I-55 CORRIDOR WEST. EXPECT SOME
CU TO REDEVELOP IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY LIMITED RISK FOR
ISOLATED SHRA REDEVELOPMENT. HRRR AND LATEST GFS IMPLY SOME SHRA/
TSRA REDEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM OVER E TX/LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA
TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS...BUT GIVEN FACT THAT SUPPORT
LOOKS WEAK AND WILL BE MOVING IN AFTER SUNSET WILL NOT SHOW ANY
IMPACTS IN TAFS. SOME FOG APPEARS LIKELY AT LATE TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN EAST CLOSER TO SURFACE RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS...SO
WILL CARRY AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE.
/AEG/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  86  68  85 /  23  47  22  51
MERIDIAN      67  86  67  85 /  21  54  23  50
VICKSBURG     67  87  68  86 /  29  43  23  50
HATTIESBURG   69  86  68  86 /  32  58  28  58
NATCHEZ       68  86  69  85 /  34  49  25  58
GREENVILLE    69  86  69  86 /  20  39  23  42
GREENWOOD     68  85  68  85 /  20  43  23  45

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/AEG





000
FXUS64 KJAN 262048
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
348 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS NOW LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 84/98
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS BECOME A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUD COVER NOW HAVING
EXITED THE REGION. THIS ALL THANKS LARGELY TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
MCS THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND SOME RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE IS
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS IS WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE STILL RESIDES AND THERE HAS BEEN GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR
DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY TONIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO JUST BE ISOLATED.

WEDNESDAY WE EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN TO GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
DURING THE DAY. THOUGH MORE RESPECTABLE FORCING WILL BE PULLING AWAY
FROM THE REGION...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING GOOD LAPSE RATES WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ISN`T EXPECTED TO BE
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20-25
KT RANGE...BUT THIS SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A GOOD AMOUNT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES/GREATER INSTABILITY...
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...THUS WE ARE HIGHLIGHTING A
LIMITED RISK ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BUT WE WILL REMAIN ON THE
RETURN FLOW SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP A RATHER MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED SCATTERED CONVECTION...WHICH WILL GENERALLY BE MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERSISTENT
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND DEAMPLIFY. THIS WILL NUDGE A SURFACE FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA WHICH COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR PRECIP AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO AREA THIS MORNING IN
WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHRA OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS GIVING WAY TO CLEARING FROM I-55 CORRIDOR WEST. EXPECT SOME
CU TO REDEVELOP IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY LIMITED RISK FOR
ISOLATED SHRA REDEVELOPMENT. HRRR AND LATEST GFS IMPLY SOME SHRA/
TSRA REDEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM OVER E TX/LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA
TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS...BUT GIVEN FACT THAT SUPPORT
LOOKS WEAK AND WILL BE MOVING IN AFTER SUNSET WILL NOT SHOW ANY
IMPACTS IN TAFS. SOME FOG APPEARS LIKELY AT LATE TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN EAST CLOSER TO SURFACE RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS...SO
WILL CARRY AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE.
/AEG/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  86  68  85 /  23  47  22  51
MERIDIAN      67  86  67  85 /  21  54  23  50
VICKSBURG     67  87  68  86 /  29  43  23  50
HATTIESBURG   69  86  68  86 /  32  58  28  58
NATCHEZ       68  86  69  85 /  34  49  25  58
GREENVILLE    69  86  69  86 /  20  39  23  42
GREENWOOD     68  85  68  85 /  20  43  23  45

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/AEG




000
FXUS64 KJAN 261621 AAB
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1121 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE BACK END OF THE MORNING CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX CONTINUES TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...CLEARING WAS
NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE ALONG AND WEST OF I-55. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
BE COOLER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER
WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING. NEVERTHELESS...FORECAST HIGHS WERE BUMPED
DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. IT IS CONTINUING TO LOOK LIKE
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE
SUBSIDENT REGIME BEHIND THE DEPARTING COMPLEX AS PWATS DROP TO NEAR
1 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. REMOVED PRECIP WORDING
FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND KEPT IN ONLY ISOLATED
POPS IN THE SOUTH. HRRR DOES HINT AT SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...BUT IT WOULD BE LATER ON INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO AREA THIS MORNING IN
WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHRA OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS GIVING WAY TO CLEARING FROM I-55 CORRIDOR WEST. EXPECT SOME
CU TO REDEVELOP IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY LIMITED RISK FOR
ISOLATED SHRA REDEVELOPMENT. HRRR AND LATEST GFS IMPLY SOME SHRA/
TSRA REDEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM OVER E TX/LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA
TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS...BUT GIVEN FACT THAT SUPPORT
LOOKS WEAK AND WILL BE MOVING IN AFTER SUNSET WILL NOT SHOW ANY
IMPACTS IN TAFS. SOME FOG APPEARS LIKELY AT KHBG/KMEI LATE TONIGHT
CLOSER TO SURFACE RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL CARRY AT LEAST MVFR
VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE.    /AEG/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FOR TONIGHT THE HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF ANYTHING
GOING ON OUR AREA...BUT THEY SHOW AN MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST WEST OF
THE REGION...WHICH MAY SEND A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE
SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MODELS SHOWS SOME 7C LAPSE RATES
WITH MIDLEVEL 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C...-6 SHOWALTER INDEX..VT NEAR
30 AND 20 KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR. SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE AROUND
4000-5000 JUST WEST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO WITH THIS IN
MIND WILL PUT A LIMITED GRAPHIC FOR THE FAR WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
/17/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TO END THE WORK WEEK. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY WILL TRACK EAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY
AND HELP DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS HEIGHTS LOWER AND WAA INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST OVER OUR CWA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS GFS RUN IS AGAIN A
LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONGER WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC. THE CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THE
WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA MONDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING IT
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WETTER OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH NO REAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DECENT POPS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. NORMAL LOWS RUN
IN THE MID 60S AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 85 TO 87F. DUE TO MOISTURE
LEVELS REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /22/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/AEG/17/22




000
FXUS64 KJAN 261621 AAB
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1121 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE BACK END OF THE MORNING CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX CONTINUES TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...CLEARING WAS
NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE ALONG AND WEST OF I-55. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
BE COOLER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER
WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING. NEVERTHELESS...FORECAST HIGHS WERE BUMPED
DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. IT IS CONTINUING TO LOOK LIKE
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE
SUBSIDENT REGIME BEHIND THE DEPARTING COMPLEX AS PWATS DROP TO NEAR
1 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. REMOVED PRECIP WORDING
FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND KEPT IN ONLY ISOLATED
POPS IN THE SOUTH. HRRR DOES HINT AT SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...BUT IT WOULD BE LATER ON INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO AREA THIS MORNING IN
WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHRA OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS GIVING WAY TO CLEARING FROM I-55 CORRIDOR WEST. EXPECT SOME
CU TO REDEVELOP IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY LIMITED RISK FOR
ISOLATED SHRA REDEVELOPMENT. HRRR AND LATEST GFS IMPLY SOME SHRA/
TSRA REDEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM OVER E TX/LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA
TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS...BUT GIVEN FACT THAT SUPPORT
LOOKS WEAK AND WILL BE MOVING IN AFTER SUNSET WILL NOT SHOW ANY
IMPACTS IN TAFS. SOME FOG APPEARS LIKELY AT KHBG/KMEI LATE TONIGHT
CLOSER TO SURFACE RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL CARRY AT LEAST MVFR
VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE.    /AEG/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FOR TONIGHT THE HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF ANYTHING
GOING ON OUR AREA...BUT THEY SHOW AN MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST WEST OF
THE REGION...WHICH MAY SEND A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE
SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MODELS SHOWS SOME 7C LAPSE RATES
WITH MIDLEVEL 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C...-6 SHOWALTER INDEX..VT NEAR
30 AND 20 KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR. SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE AROUND
4000-5000 JUST WEST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO WITH THIS IN
MIND WILL PUT A LIMITED GRAPHIC FOR THE FAR WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
/17/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TO END THE WORK WEEK. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY WILL TRACK EAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY
AND HELP DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS HEIGHTS LOWER AND WAA INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST OVER OUR CWA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS GFS RUN IS AGAIN A
LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONGER WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC. THE CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THE
WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA MONDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING IT
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WETTER OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH NO REAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DECENT POPS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. NORMAL LOWS RUN
IN THE MID 60S AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 85 TO 87F. DUE TO MOISTURE
LEVELS REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /22/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/AEG/17/22





000
FXUS64 KJAN 261621 AAB
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1121 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE BACK END OF THE MORNING CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX CONTINUES TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...CLEARING WAS
NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE ALONG AND WEST OF I-55. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
BE COOLER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER
WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING. NEVERTHELESS...FORECAST HIGHS WERE BUMPED
DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. IT IS CONTINUING TO LOOK LIKE
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE
SUBSIDENT REGIME BEHIND THE DEPARTING COMPLEX AS PWATS DROP TO NEAR
1 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. REMOVED PRECIP WORDING
FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND KEPT IN ONLY ISOLATED
POPS IN THE SOUTH. HRRR DOES HINT AT SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...BUT IT WOULD BE LATER ON INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO AREA THIS MORNING IN
WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHRA OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS GIVING WAY TO CLEARING FROM I-55 CORRIDOR WEST. EXPECT SOME
CU TO REDEVELOP IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY LIMITED RISK FOR
ISOLATED SHRA REDEVELOPMENT. HRRR AND LATEST GFS IMPLY SOME SHRA/
TSRA REDEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM OVER E TX/LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA
TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS...BUT GIVEN FACT THAT SUPPORT
LOOKS WEAK AND WILL BE MOVING IN AFTER SUNSET WILL NOT SHOW ANY
IMPACTS IN TAFS. SOME FOG APPEARS LIKELY AT KHBG/KMEI LATE TONIGHT
CLOSER TO SURFACE RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL CARRY AT LEAST MVFR
VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE.    /AEG/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FOR TONIGHT THE HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF ANYTHING
GOING ON OUR AREA...BUT THEY SHOW AN MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST WEST OF
THE REGION...WHICH MAY SEND A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE
SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MODELS SHOWS SOME 7C LAPSE RATES
WITH MIDLEVEL 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C...-6 SHOWALTER INDEX..VT NEAR
30 AND 20 KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR. SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE AROUND
4000-5000 JUST WEST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO WITH THIS IN
MIND WILL PUT A LIMITED GRAPHIC FOR THE FAR WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
/17/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TO END THE WORK WEEK. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY WILL TRACK EAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY
AND HELP DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS HEIGHTS LOWER AND WAA INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST OVER OUR CWA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS GFS RUN IS AGAIN A
LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONGER WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC. THE CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THE
WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA MONDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING IT
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WETTER OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH NO REAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DECENT POPS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. NORMAL LOWS RUN
IN THE MID 60S AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 85 TO 87F. DUE TO MOISTURE
LEVELS REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /22/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/AEG/17/22




000
FXUS64 KJAN 261621 AAB
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1121 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE BACK END OF THE MORNING CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX CONTINUES TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...CLEARING WAS
NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE ALONG AND WEST OF I-55. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
BE COOLER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER
WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING. NEVERTHELESS...FORECAST HIGHS WERE BUMPED
DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. IT IS CONTINUING TO LOOK LIKE
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE
SUBSIDENT REGIME BEHIND THE DEPARTING COMPLEX AS PWATS DROP TO NEAR
1 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. REMOVED PRECIP WORDING
FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND KEPT IN ONLY ISOLATED
POPS IN THE SOUTH. HRRR DOES HINT AT SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...BUT IT WOULD BE LATER ON INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO AREA THIS MORNING IN
WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHRA OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS GIVING WAY TO CLEARING FROM I-55 CORRIDOR WEST. EXPECT SOME
CU TO REDEVELOP IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY LIMITED RISK FOR
ISOLATED SHRA REDEVELOPMENT. HRRR AND LATEST GFS IMPLY SOME SHRA/
TSRA REDEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM OVER E TX/LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA
TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS...BUT GIVEN FACT THAT SUPPORT
LOOKS WEAK AND WILL BE MOVING IN AFTER SUNSET WILL NOT SHOW ANY
IMPACTS IN TAFS. SOME FOG APPEARS LIKELY AT KHBG/KMEI LATE TONIGHT
CLOSER TO SURFACE RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL CARRY AT LEAST MVFR
VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE.    /AEG/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FOR TONIGHT THE HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF ANYTHING
GOING ON OUR AREA...BUT THEY SHOW AN MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST WEST OF
THE REGION...WHICH MAY SEND A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE
SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MODELS SHOWS SOME 7C LAPSE RATES
WITH MIDLEVEL 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C...-6 SHOWALTER INDEX..VT NEAR
30 AND 20 KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR. SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE AROUND
4000-5000 JUST WEST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO WITH THIS IN
MIND WILL PUT A LIMITED GRAPHIC FOR THE FAR WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
/17/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TO END THE WORK WEEK. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY WILL TRACK EAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY
AND HELP DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS HEIGHTS LOWER AND WAA INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST OVER OUR CWA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS GFS RUN IS AGAIN A
LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONGER WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC. THE CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THE
WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA MONDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING IT
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WETTER OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH NO REAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DECENT POPS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. NORMAL LOWS RUN
IN THE MID 60S AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 85 TO 87F. DUE TO MOISTURE
LEVELS REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /22/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/AEG/17/22





000
FXUS64 KJAN 261340 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
839 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...SENT A QUICK FORECAST UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS...
WHICH WERE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES TOO WARM IN SOME AREAS.
ALSO WITH THE MCS HAVING PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION...BACKED OFF ON
POPS FOR THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER. STILL ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANY REDEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY...AND WILL ADDRESS THIS IN THE
MAIN UPDATE IN AN HOUR OR TWO. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/ SHORT
TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY
SHOWED THE MAIN UPPER BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WITH
MEAN UPPER RIDGING NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT ALSO SHOWED
A WEAKENING LINEAR MCS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WAS ROTATING ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS WE HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SPOTS OF 3 TO AROUND 4
INCHES...WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WERE SEEING FROM 0.5 TO AROUND 2
INCHES. AREA RADARS CONTINUED TO PICK OF A WEAKENING LINE STORMS
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUED
TO PICK UP DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8 TO 2
INCHES...WHICH WAS RESULTING IN VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL MODE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MODEL AND 00Z SNDGS WERE CONTINUING TO SHOW
SOME IMPRESSIVE FLOW INT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS FOR LATE MAY ESP
WEST OF THE REGION.

FOR TODAY THE SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THE
CONVECTION WILL DISTURB ON ANY SEVERE SETUP FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WAS SHOWN BY THE HIRES
MODELS AND WILL PLAY HAVOC ON ANY INSTABILITY SETUP FOR THE DAY. AS
A MATTER OF FACT HIRES SHOWS THE BEST STORMS OFF THE COAST DURING
THE DAY. WPC STILL SHOWS AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBILITY FOR THE
AREA FROM EARLY TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHICH SEEMS SENSIBLE
CONSIDERING THE PWATS AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE
REGION.  FOR TONIGHT THE HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF ANYTHING
GOING ON OUR AREA...BUT THEY SHOW AN MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST WEST OF
THE REGION...WHICH MAY SEND A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE
SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MODELS SHOWS SOME 7C LAPSE RATES
WITH MIDLEVEL 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C...-6 SHOWALTER INDEX..VT NEAR
30 AND 20 KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR. SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE AROUND
4000-5000 JUST WEST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO WITH THIS IN
MIND WILL PUT A LIMITED GRAPHIC FOR THE FAR WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
/17/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TO END THE WORK WEEK. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY WILL TRACK EAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY
AND HELP DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS HEIGHTS LOWER AND WAA INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST OVER OUR CWA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS GFS RUN IS AGAIN A
LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONGER WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC. THE CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THE
WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA MONDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING IT
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WETTER OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH NO REAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DECENT POPS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. NORMAL LOWS RUN
IN THE MID 60S AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 85 TO 87F. DUE TO MOISTURE
LEVELS REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHRA AND SOME TSRA WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN WILL BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE EAST TAF
SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOSTLY EXITING THE REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON. IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCNL IFR CIGS
WILL BE PREVALENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING./17/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/17/22





000
FXUS64 KJAN 261340 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
839 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...SENT A QUICK FORECAST UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS...
WHICH WERE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES TOO WARM IN SOME AREAS.
ALSO WITH THE MCS HAVING PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION...BACKED OFF ON
POPS FOR THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER. STILL ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANY REDEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY...AND WILL ADDRESS THIS IN THE
MAIN UPDATE IN AN HOUR OR TWO. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/ SHORT
TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY
SHOWED THE MAIN UPPER BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WITH
MEAN UPPER RIDGING NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT ALSO SHOWED
A WEAKENING LINEAR MCS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WAS ROTATING ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS WE HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SPOTS OF 3 TO AROUND 4
INCHES...WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WERE SEEING FROM 0.5 TO AROUND 2
INCHES. AREA RADARS CONTINUED TO PICK OF A WEAKENING LINE STORMS
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUED
TO PICK UP DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8 TO 2
INCHES...WHICH WAS RESULTING IN VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL MODE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MODEL AND 00Z SNDGS WERE CONTINUING TO SHOW
SOME IMPRESSIVE FLOW INT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS FOR LATE MAY ESP
WEST OF THE REGION.

FOR TODAY THE SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THE
CONVECTION WILL DISTURB ON ANY SEVERE SETUP FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WAS SHOWN BY THE HIRES
MODELS AND WILL PLAY HAVOC ON ANY INSTABILITY SETUP FOR THE DAY. AS
A MATTER OF FACT HIRES SHOWS THE BEST STORMS OFF THE COAST DURING
THE DAY. WPC STILL SHOWS AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBILITY FOR THE
AREA FROM EARLY TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHICH SEEMS SENSIBLE
CONSIDERING THE PWATS AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE
REGION.  FOR TONIGHT THE HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF ANYTHING
GOING ON OUR AREA...BUT THEY SHOW AN MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST WEST OF
THE REGION...WHICH MAY SEND A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE
SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MODELS SHOWS SOME 7C LAPSE RATES
WITH MIDLEVEL 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C...-6 SHOWALTER INDEX..VT NEAR
30 AND 20 KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR. SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE AROUND
4000-5000 JUST WEST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO WITH THIS IN
MIND WILL PUT A LIMITED GRAPHIC FOR THE FAR WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
/17/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TO END THE WORK WEEK. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY WILL TRACK EAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY
AND HELP DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS HEIGHTS LOWER AND WAA INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST OVER OUR CWA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS GFS RUN IS AGAIN A
LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONGER WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC. THE CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THE
WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA MONDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING IT
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WETTER OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH NO REAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DECENT POPS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. NORMAL LOWS RUN
IN THE MID 60S AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 85 TO 87F. DUE TO MOISTURE
LEVELS REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHRA AND SOME TSRA WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN WILL BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE EAST TAF
SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOSTLY EXITING THE REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON. IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCNL IFR CIGS
WILL BE PREVALENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING./17/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/17/22




000
FXUS64 KJAN 260923
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
423 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST VAPOR AND IR
IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN UPPER BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH MEAN UPPER RIDGING NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT ALSO
SHOWED A WEAKENING LINEAR MCS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WAS ROTATING ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRONG NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS WE HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SPOTS OF 3 TO
AROUND 4 INCHES...WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WERE SEEING FROM 0.5 TO AROUND
2 INCHES. AREA RADARS CONTINUED TO PICK OF A WEAKENING LINE STORMS
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUED
TO PICK UP DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8 TO 2
INCHES...WHICH WAS RESULTING IN VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL MODE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MODEL AND 00Z SNDGS WERE CONTINUING TO SHOW
SOME IMPRESSIVE FLOW INT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS FOR LATE MAY ESP
WEST OF THE REGION.

FOR TODAY THE SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THE
CONVECTION WILL DISTURB ON ANY SEVERE SETUP FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WAS SHOWN BY THE HIRES
MODELS AND WILL PLAY HAVOC ON ANY INSTABILITY SETUP FOR THE DAY. AS
A MATTER OF FACT HIRES SHOWS THE BEST STORMS OFF THE COAST DURING
THE DAY. WPC STILL SHOWS AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBILITY FOR THE
AREA FROM EARLY TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHICH SEEMS SENSIBLE
CONSIDERING THE PWATS AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE
REGION.  FOR TONIGHT THE HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF ANYTHING
GOING ON OUR AREA...BUT THEY SHOW AN MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST WEST OF
THE REGION...WHICH MAY SEND A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE
SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MODELS SHOWS SOME 7C LAPSE RATES
WITH MIDLEVEL 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C...-6 SHOWALTER INDEX..VT NEAR
30 AND 20 KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR. SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE AROUND
4000-5000 JUST WEST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO WITH THIS IN
MIND WILL PUT A LIMITED GRAPHIC FOR THE FAR WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
/17/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TO END THE WORK WEEK. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY WILL TRACK EAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY
AND HELP DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS HEIGHTS LOWER AND WAA INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST OVER OUR CWA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS GFS RUN IS AGAIN A
LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONGER WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC. THE CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THE
WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA MONDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING IT
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WETTER OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH NO REAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DECENT POPS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. NORMAL LOWS RUN
IN THE MID 60S AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 85 TO 87F. DUE TO MOISTURE
LEVELS REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHRA AND SOME TSRA WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN WILL BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE EAST TAF
SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOSTLY EXITING THE REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON. IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCNL IFR CIGS
WILL BE PREVALENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80  69  86  68 /  73  36  51  26
MERIDIAN      81  68  85  67 /  72  36  54  25
VICKSBURG     81  69  86  69 /  74  36  46  30
HATTIESBURG   82  70  86  69 /  70  41  54  28
NATCHEZ       82  70  85  69 /  71  40  49  30
GREENVILLE    80  69  85  69 /  68  30  38  28
GREENWOOD     79  69  85  68 /  72  30  44  26

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/22/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 260923
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
423 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LATEST VAPOR AND IR
IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN UPPER BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH MEAN UPPER RIDGING NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT ALSO
SHOWED A WEAKENING LINEAR MCS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WAS ROTATING ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRONG NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS WE HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SPOTS OF 3 TO
AROUND 4 INCHES...WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WERE SEEING FROM 0.5 TO AROUND
2 INCHES. AREA RADARS CONTINUED TO PICK OF A WEAKENING LINE STORMS
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUED
TO PICK UP DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8 TO 2
INCHES...WHICH WAS RESULTING IN VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL MODE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MODEL AND 00Z SNDGS WERE CONTINUING TO SHOW
SOME IMPRESSIVE FLOW INT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS FOR LATE MAY ESP
WEST OF THE REGION.

FOR TODAY THE SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THE
CONVECTION WILL DISTURB ON ANY SEVERE SETUP FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WAS SHOWN BY THE HIRES
MODELS AND WILL PLAY HAVOC ON ANY INSTABILITY SETUP FOR THE DAY. AS
A MATTER OF FACT HIRES SHOWS THE BEST STORMS OFF THE COAST DURING
THE DAY. WPC STILL SHOWS AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBILITY FOR THE
AREA FROM EARLY TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHICH SEEMS SENSIBLE
CONSIDERING THE PWATS AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE
REGION.  FOR TONIGHT THE HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF ANYTHING
GOING ON OUR AREA...BUT THEY SHOW AN MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST WEST OF
THE REGION...WHICH MAY SEND A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE
SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MODELS SHOWS SOME 7C LAPSE RATES
WITH MIDLEVEL 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C...-6 SHOWALTER INDEX..VT NEAR
30 AND 20 KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR. SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE AROUND
4000-5000 JUST WEST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO WITH THIS IN
MIND WILL PUT A LIMITED GRAPHIC FOR THE FAR WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
/17/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TO END THE WORK WEEK. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY WILL TRACK EAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY
AND HELP DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS HEIGHTS LOWER AND WAA INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST OVER OUR CWA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS GFS RUN IS AGAIN A
LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONGER WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC. THE CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THE
WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA MONDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING IT
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WETTER OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH NO REAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DECENT POPS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. NORMAL LOWS RUN
IN THE MID 60S AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 85 TO 87F. DUE TO MOISTURE
LEVELS REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHRA AND SOME TSRA WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN WILL BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE EAST TAF
SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOSTLY EXITING THE REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON. IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCNL IFR CIGS
WILL BE PREVALENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80  69  86  68 /  73  36  51  26
MERIDIAN      81  68  85  67 /  72  36  54  25
VICKSBURG     81  69  86  69 /  74  36  46  30
HATTIESBURG   82  70  86  69 /  70  41  54  28
NATCHEZ       82  70  85  69 /  71  40  49  30
GREENVILLE    80  69  85  69 /  68  30  38  28
GREENWOOD     79  69  85  68 /  72  30  44  26

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/22/17





000
FXUS64 KJAN 260127 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
827 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS REGION TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...A POTENT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED.
AS I WRITE THIS LINE IS ON THE VERGE OF KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE
ARKLAMISS DELTA AND I EXPECT IN ANOTHER HOUR VIGOROUS CONVECTION
WILL INDEED BE MOVING IN. THE SYNOPTIC AND THERMODYNAMIC SETUP VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EARLIER IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ARKLATEX SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS SUPPORTIVE ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. THAT SAID...THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL JET TO FUEL STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS (AND MAYBE EVEN AN EMBEDDED TORNADO OR TWO) IN MY FAR
WESTERN ZONES AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES IN LATER THIS EVENING. WANING
INSTABILITY AND A CONTINUED DOWNGRADE OF PARAMETER SPACE INTO THE
HEART OF THE REGION SHOULD CAUSE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO EBB
CONSIDERABLY WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OF COURSE AN ISSUE WE ARE MONITORING...BUT
AS LONG AS THE INCOMING LINE OF STORMS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THEN BIG
FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE AVOIDED. THERE IS NOT YET AN EXPECTATION
THAT THIS LINE WILL HANG UP AND LEAD TO PROBLEMATIC TRAINING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT OF COURSE WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR THAT
CLOSELY. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS IN EAST MS WAS STABILIZED BY MORNING
ACTIVITY. THE NEWER DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. UNLIKE YESTERDAY LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...SO WE
ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE MULTIPLE BOWING SEGMENTS PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE
OVER A LARGE AREA. HOWEVER UPDRAFTS WILL BE ROBUST ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE DOWNBURSTS RESULTING IN WIND DAMAGE OVER MORE LOCALIZED
AREAS...AND SOME HAIL.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...DAYTIME CONVECTION SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE WEST AT THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS TX/OK. CURRENT TIMING
EXPECTATIONS BRING A LINE OF STORMS INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
BY MIDNIGHT. SPC SSEO SUGGESTS THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO LOSE STEAM
AS THEY APPROACH THE MS RIVER...HOWEVER THEY COULD STILL BE SEVERE
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-55. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS...BUT HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

ON TUESDAY WHILE THERE IS SOME CERTAINTY IN THERE BEING SHOWERS AND
STORMS GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY
IN EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE. ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1 3/4-2 INCHES. HOWEVER A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING
THE DAY...AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT LINGERING CONVECTION FROM
TONIGHT COULD DISRUPT THE ENVIRONMENT EARLY IN THE DAY. BETWEEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING STRONG STORMS IN THE MORNING AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH NEWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE
ACROSS THE CWA. ALSO...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS (RADAR ESTIMATES OF 3-5 INCHES IN A SWATH FROM
NEAR JACKSON NNE TO PARTS OF THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR) IT WOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS.

THOUGH THE STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEARBY...WITH
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A
DECENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AROUND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO IN THE
CWA...WHICH IS WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. /DL/

LONG TERM...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT RIDGING ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DIURNAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO END THE WORK WEEK. BY SATURDAY
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONGER WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC...BUT CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS POPS WILL INCREASE GOING INTO SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS
CLOSER. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST WEST OF OUR CWA MONDAY
EVENING. NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE MID 60S AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 85 TO
87F. DUE TO MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT AT LEAST
GLH/TVR/GWO/HEZ/HKS/JAN THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT AT GTR/CBM/MEI/NMM/PIB/HBG AS WELL. IN THE VERY MOIST
AIRMASS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCNL IFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. POTENTIALLY POTENT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW. /BB/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  83  69  85 /  82  80  48  57
MERIDIAN      69  81  68  83 /  63  75  43  64
VICKSBURG     72  83  69  86 / 100  78  40  55
HATTIESBURG   70  83  70  84 /  55  74  40  65
NATCHEZ       72  84  70  85 / 100  76  34  58
GREENVILLE    71  82  69  85 / 100  71  36  39
GREENWOOD     70  81  68  84 /  99  77  40  46

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/DL/22




000
FXUS64 KJAN 260127 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
827 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS REGION TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...A POTENT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED.
AS I WRITE THIS LINE IS ON THE VERGE OF KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE
ARKLAMISS DELTA AND I EXPECT IN ANOTHER HOUR VIGOROUS CONVECTION
WILL INDEED BE MOVING IN. THE SYNOPTIC AND THERMODYNAMIC SETUP VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EARLIER IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ARKLATEX SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS SUPPORTIVE ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. THAT SAID...THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL JET TO FUEL STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS (AND MAYBE EVEN AN EMBEDDED TORNADO OR TWO) IN MY FAR
WESTERN ZONES AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES IN LATER THIS EVENING. WANING
INSTABILITY AND A CONTINUED DOWNGRADE OF PARAMETER SPACE INTO THE
HEART OF THE REGION SHOULD CAUSE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO EBB
CONSIDERABLY WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OF COURSE AN ISSUE WE ARE MONITORING...BUT
AS LONG AS THE INCOMING LINE OF STORMS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THEN BIG
FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE AVOIDED. THERE IS NOT YET AN EXPECTATION
THAT THIS LINE WILL HANG UP AND LEAD TO PROBLEMATIC TRAINING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT OF COURSE WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR THAT
CLOSELY. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS IN EAST MS WAS STABILIZED BY MORNING
ACTIVITY. THE NEWER DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. UNLIKE YESTERDAY LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...SO WE
ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE MULTIPLE BOWING SEGMENTS PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE
OVER A LARGE AREA. HOWEVER UPDRAFTS WILL BE ROBUST ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE DOWNBURSTS RESULTING IN WIND DAMAGE OVER MORE LOCALIZED
AREAS...AND SOME HAIL.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...DAYTIME CONVECTION SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE WEST AT THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS TX/OK. CURRENT TIMING
EXPECTATIONS BRING A LINE OF STORMS INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
BY MIDNIGHT. SPC SSEO SUGGESTS THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO LOSE STEAM
AS THEY APPROACH THE MS RIVER...HOWEVER THEY COULD STILL BE SEVERE
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-55. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS...BUT HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

ON TUESDAY WHILE THERE IS SOME CERTAINTY IN THERE BEING SHOWERS AND
STORMS GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY
IN EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE. ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1 3/4-2 INCHES. HOWEVER A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING
THE DAY...AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT LINGERING CONVECTION FROM
TONIGHT COULD DISRUPT THE ENVIRONMENT EARLY IN THE DAY. BETWEEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING STRONG STORMS IN THE MORNING AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH NEWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE
ACROSS THE CWA. ALSO...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS (RADAR ESTIMATES OF 3-5 INCHES IN A SWATH FROM
NEAR JACKSON NNE TO PARTS OF THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR) IT WOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS.

THOUGH THE STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEARBY...WITH
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A
DECENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AROUND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO IN THE
CWA...WHICH IS WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. /DL/

LONG TERM...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT RIDGING ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DIURNAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO END THE WORK WEEK. BY SATURDAY
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONGER WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC...BUT CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS POPS WILL INCREASE GOING INTO SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS
CLOSER. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST WEST OF OUR CWA MONDAY
EVENING. NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE MID 60S AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 85 TO
87F. DUE TO MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT AT LEAST
GLH/TVR/GWO/HEZ/HKS/JAN THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT AT GTR/CBM/MEI/NMM/PIB/HBG AS WELL. IN THE VERY MOIST
AIRMASS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCNL IFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. POTENTIALLY POTENT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW. /BB/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  83  69  85 /  82  80  48  57
MERIDIAN      69  81  68  83 /  63  75  43  64
VICKSBURG     72  83  69  86 / 100  78  40  55
HATTIESBURG   70  83  70  84 /  55  74  40  65
NATCHEZ       72  84  70  85 / 100  76  34  58
GREENVILLE    71  82  69  85 / 100  71  36  39
GREENWOOD     70  81  68  84 /  99  77  40  46

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/DL/22





000
FXUS64 KJAN 260127 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
827 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS REGION TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...A POTENT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED.
AS I WRITE THIS LINE IS ON THE VERGE OF KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE
ARKLAMISS DELTA AND I EXPECT IN ANOTHER HOUR VIGOROUS CONVECTION
WILL INDEED BE MOVING IN. THE SYNOPTIC AND THERMODYNAMIC SETUP VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EARLIER IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ARKLATEX SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS SUPPORTIVE ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. THAT SAID...THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL JET TO FUEL STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS (AND MAYBE EVEN AN EMBEDDED TORNADO OR TWO) IN MY FAR
WESTERN ZONES AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES IN LATER THIS EVENING. WANING
INSTABILITY AND A CONTINUED DOWNGRADE OF PARAMETER SPACE INTO THE
HEART OF THE REGION SHOULD CAUSE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO EBB
CONSIDERABLY WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OF COURSE AN ISSUE WE ARE MONITORING...BUT
AS LONG AS THE INCOMING LINE OF STORMS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THEN BIG
FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE AVOIDED. THERE IS NOT YET AN EXPECTATION
THAT THIS LINE WILL HANG UP AND LEAD TO PROBLEMATIC TRAINING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT OF COURSE WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR THAT
CLOSELY. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS IN EAST MS WAS STABILIZED BY MORNING
ACTIVITY. THE NEWER DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. UNLIKE YESTERDAY LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...SO WE
ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE MULTIPLE BOWING SEGMENTS PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE
OVER A LARGE AREA. HOWEVER UPDRAFTS WILL BE ROBUST ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE DOWNBURSTS RESULTING IN WIND DAMAGE OVER MORE LOCALIZED
AREAS...AND SOME HAIL.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...DAYTIME CONVECTION SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE WEST AT THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS TX/OK. CURRENT TIMING
EXPECTATIONS BRING A LINE OF STORMS INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
BY MIDNIGHT. SPC SSEO SUGGESTS THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO LOSE STEAM
AS THEY APPROACH THE MS RIVER...HOWEVER THEY COULD STILL BE SEVERE
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-55. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS...BUT HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

ON TUESDAY WHILE THERE IS SOME CERTAINTY IN THERE BEING SHOWERS AND
STORMS GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY
IN EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE. ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1 3/4-2 INCHES. HOWEVER A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING
THE DAY...AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT LINGERING CONVECTION FROM
TONIGHT COULD DISRUPT THE ENVIRONMENT EARLY IN THE DAY. BETWEEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING STRONG STORMS IN THE MORNING AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH NEWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE
ACROSS THE CWA. ALSO...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS (RADAR ESTIMATES OF 3-5 INCHES IN A SWATH FROM
NEAR JACKSON NNE TO PARTS OF THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR) IT WOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS.

THOUGH THE STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEARBY...WITH
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A
DECENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AROUND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO IN THE
CWA...WHICH IS WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. /DL/

LONG TERM...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT RIDGING ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DIURNAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO END THE WORK WEEK. BY SATURDAY
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONGER WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC...BUT CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS POPS WILL INCREASE GOING INTO SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS
CLOSER. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST WEST OF OUR CWA MONDAY
EVENING. NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE MID 60S AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 85 TO
87F. DUE TO MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT AT LEAST
GLH/TVR/GWO/HEZ/HKS/JAN THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT AT GTR/CBM/MEI/NMM/PIB/HBG AS WELL. IN THE VERY MOIST
AIRMASS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCNL IFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. POTENTIALLY POTENT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW. /BB/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  83  69  85 /  82  80  48  57
MERIDIAN      69  81  68  83 /  63  75  43  64
VICKSBURG     72  83  69  86 / 100  78  40  55
HATTIESBURG   70  83  70  84 /  55  74  40  65
NATCHEZ       72  84  70  85 / 100  76  34  58
GREENVILLE    71  82  69  85 / 100  71  36  39
GREENWOOD     70  81  68  84 /  99  77  40  46

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/DL/22




000
FXUS64 KJAN 260127 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
827 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS REGION TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...A POTENT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED.
AS I WRITE THIS LINE IS ON THE VERGE OF KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE
ARKLAMISS DELTA AND I EXPECT IN ANOTHER HOUR VIGOROUS CONVECTION
WILL INDEED BE MOVING IN. THE SYNOPTIC AND THERMODYNAMIC SETUP VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EARLIER IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ARKLATEX SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS SUPPORTIVE ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. THAT SAID...THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL JET TO FUEL STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS (AND MAYBE EVEN AN EMBEDDED TORNADO OR TWO) IN MY FAR
WESTERN ZONES AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES IN LATER THIS EVENING. WANING
INSTABILITY AND A CONTINUED DOWNGRADE OF PARAMETER SPACE INTO THE
HEART OF THE REGION SHOULD CAUSE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO EBB
CONSIDERABLY WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OF COURSE AN ISSUE WE ARE MONITORING...BUT
AS LONG AS THE INCOMING LINE OF STORMS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THEN BIG
FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE AVOIDED. THERE IS NOT YET AN EXPECTATION
THAT THIS LINE WILL HANG UP AND LEAD TO PROBLEMATIC TRAINING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT OF COURSE WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR THAT
CLOSELY. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS IN EAST MS WAS STABILIZED BY MORNING
ACTIVITY. THE NEWER DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. UNLIKE YESTERDAY LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...SO WE
ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE MULTIPLE BOWING SEGMENTS PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE
OVER A LARGE AREA. HOWEVER UPDRAFTS WILL BE ROBUST ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE DOWNBURSTS RESULTING IN WIND DAMAGE OVER MORE LOCALIZED
AREAS...AND SOME HAIL.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...DAYTIME CONVECTION SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE WEST AT THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS TX/OK. CURRENT TIMING
EXPECTATIONS BRING A LINE OF STORMS INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
BY MIDNIGHT. SPC SSEO SUGGESTS THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO LOSE STEAM
AS THEY APPROACH THE MS RIVER...HOWEVER THEY COULD STILL BE SEVERE
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-55. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS...BUT HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

ON TUESDAY WHILE THERE IS SOME CERTAINTY IN THERE BEING SHOWERS AND
STORMS GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY
IN EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE. ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1 3/4-2 INCHES. HOWEVER A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING
THE DAY...AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT LINGERING CONVECTION FROM
TONIGHT COULD DISRUPT THE ENVIRONMENT EARLY IN THE DAY. BETWEEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING STRONG STORMS IN THE MORNING AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH NEWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE
ACROSS THE CWA. ALSO...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS (RADAR ESTIMATES OF 3-5 INCHES IN A SWATH FROM
NEAR JACKSON NNE TO PARTS OF THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR) IT WOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS.

THOUGH THE STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEARBY...WITH
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A
DECENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AROUND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO IN THE
CWA...WHICH IS WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. /DL/

LONG TERM...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT RIDGING ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DIURNAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO END THE WORK WEEK. BY SATURDAY
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONGER WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC...BUT CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS POPS WILL INCREASE GOING INTO SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS
CLOSER. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST WEST OF OUR CWA MONDAY
EVENING. NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE MID 60S AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 85 TO
87F. DUE TO MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT AT LEAST
GLH/TVR/GWO/HEZ/HKS/JAN THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT AT GTR/CBM/MEI/NMM/PIB/HBG AS WELL. IN THE VERY MOIST
AIRMASS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCNL IFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. POTENTIALLY POTENT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW. /BB/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  83  69  85 /  82  80  48  57
MERIDIAN      69  81  68  83 /  63  75  43  64
VICKSBURG     72  83  69  86 / 100  78  40  55
HATTIESBURG   70  83  70  84 /  55  74  40  65
NATCHEZ       72  84  70  85 / 100  76  34  58
GREENVILLE    71  82  69  85 / 100  71  36  39
GREENWOOD     70  81  68  84 /  99  77  40  46

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/DL/22





000
FXUS64 KJAN 252144
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
444 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS IN EAST MS WAS STABILIZED BY MORNING
ACTIVITY. THE NEWER DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. UNLIKE YESTERDAY LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...SO WE
ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE MULTIPLE BOWING SEGMENTS PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE
OVER A LARGE AREA. HOWEVER UPDRAFTS WILL BE ROBUST ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE DOWNBURSTS RESULTING IN WIND DAMAGE OVER MORE LOCALIZED
AREAS...AND SOME HAIL.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...DAYTIME CONVECTION SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE WEST AT THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS TX/OK. CURRENT TIMING
EXPECTATIONS BRING A LINE OF STORMS INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
BY MIDNIGHT. SPC SSEO SUGGESTS THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO LOSE STEAM
AS THEY APPROACH THE MS RIVER...HOWEVER THEY COULD STILL BE SEVERE
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-55. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS...BUT HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

ON TUESDAY WHILE THERE IS SOME CERTAINTY IN THERE BEING SHOWERS AND
STORMS GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY
IN EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE. ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1 3/4-2 INCHES. HOWEVER A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING
THE DAY...AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT LINGERING CONVECTION FROM
TONIGHT COULD DISRUPT THE ENVIRONMENT EARLY IN THE DAY. BETWEEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING STRONG STORMS IN THE MORNING AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH NEWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE
ACROSS THE CWA. ALSO...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS (RADAR ESTIMATES OF 3-5 INCHES IN A SWATH FROM
NEAR JACKSON NNE TO PARTS OF THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR) IT WOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS.

THOUGH THE STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEARBY...WITH
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A
DECENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AROUND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO IN THE
CWA...WHICH IS WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. /DL/

LONG TERM...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT RIDGING ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DIURNAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO END THE WORK WEEK. BY SATURDAY
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONGER WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC...BUT CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS POPS WILL INCREASE GOING INTO SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS
CLOSER. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST WEST OF OUR CWA MONDAY
EVENING. NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE MID 60S AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 85 TO
87F. DUE TO MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND POSE HAZARDS TO MAINLY GTR/MEI/HBG/JAN/HKS THIS
AFTN/EVNG...THEN THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SHIFT TO GLH/GWO AREA
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCNL
IFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  83  69  85 /  61  80  48  57
MERIDIAN      69  81  68  83 /  46  75  43  64
VICKSBURG     72  83  69  86 /  79  78  40  55
HATTIESBURG   70  83  70  84 /  47  74  40  65
NATCHEZ       72  84  70  85 /  72  76  34  58
GREENVILLE    71  82  69  85 /  81  71  36  39
GREENWOOD     70  81  68  84 /  69  77  40  46

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/EC





000
FXUS64 KJAN 252144
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
444 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS IN EAST MS WAS STABILIZED BY MORNING
ACTIVITY. THE NEWER DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. UNLIKE YESTERDAY LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...SO WE
ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE MULTIPLE BOWING SEGMENTS PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE
OVER A LARGE AREA. HOWEVER UPDRAFTS WILL BE ROBUST ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE DOWNBURSTS RESULTING IN WIND DAMAGE OVER MORE LOCALIZED
AREAS...AND SOME HAIL.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...DAYTIME CONVECTION SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE WEST AT THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS TX/OK. CURRENT TIMING
EXPECTATIONS BRING A LINE OF STORMS INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA
BY MIDNIGHT. SPC SSEO SUGGESTS THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO LOSE STEAM
AS THEY APPROACH THE MS RIVER...HOWEVER THEY COULD STILL BE SEVERE
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-55. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS...BUT HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

ON TUESDAY WHILE THERE IS SOME CERTAINTY IN THERE BEING SHOWERS AND
STORMS GIVEN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY
IN EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE. ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1 3/4-2 INCHES. HOWEVER A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING
THE DAY...AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT LINGERING CONVECTION FROM
TONIGHT COULD DISRUPT THE ENVIRONMENT EARLY IN THE DAY. BETWEEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING STRONG STORMS IN THE MORNING AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH NEWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE
ACROSS THE CWA. ALSO...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS (RADAR ESTIMATES OF 3-5 INCHES IN A SWATH FROM
NEAR JACKSON NNE TO PARTS OF THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR) IT WOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS.

THOUGH THE STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORT WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEARBY...WITH
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A
DECENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AROUND INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO IN THE
CWA...WHICH IS WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. /DL/

LONG TERM...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT RIDGING ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DIURNAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO END THE WORK WEEK. BY SATURDAY
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONGER WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC...BUT CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS POPS WILL INCREASE GOING INTO SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS
CLOSER. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST WEST OF OUR CWA MONDAY
EVENING. NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE MID 60S AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 85 TO
87F. DUE TO MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND POSE HAZARDS TO MAINLY GTR/MEI/HBG/JAN/HKS THIS
AFTN/EVNG...THEN THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SHIFT TO GLH/GWO AREA
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCNL
IFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  83  69  85 /  61  80  48  57
MERIDIAN      69  81  68  83 /  46  75  43  64
VICKSBURG     72  83  69  86 /  79  78  40  55
HATTIESBURG   70  83  70  84 /  47  74  40  65
NATCHEZ       72  84  70  85 /  72  76  34  58
GREENVILLE    71  82  69  85 /  81  71  36  39
GREENWOOD     70  81  68  84 /  69  77  40  46

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/EC




000
FXUS64 KJAN 251538 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1038 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN AN ACTIVE MORNING ACROSS EAST MS...WITH
MULTIPLE LOW TOPPED CELLS EXHIBITING ROTATION. A FEW OF THE STORMS
HAVE BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WARNING. THOUGH INSTABILITY
IS SOMEWHAT MODEST WITH MLCAPES MAINLY <1000 J/KG...LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF 200-300 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH ACROSS
THIS REGION. THERE IS GOOD UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE AREA RESIDES UNDER THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET MAX LIFTING ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY.
LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER EAST MS INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER WEST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY INCREASE.

GIVEN THE HISTORY OF STORMS THIS MORNING AND CURRENT ENVIRONMENT...
THE HWO/GRAPHICS WILL BE UPDATED TO HIGHLIGHT A LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. SOME MINOR UPDATES WILL ALSO BE MADE
TO WX WORDING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND POSE HAZARDS TO GTR/MEI/HBG/JAN/HKS THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...THEN THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SHIFT TO GLH/GWO
AREA TONIGHT. IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCNL IFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... EXPECTING A RATHER
ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

BY 3 MID DAYTIME HEATING WILL KICK IN AS CONVECTION BUILDS FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTH TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS/MS VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
INCLUDING SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE ACROSS THE
DELTA...WHERE THE BEST OVERLAY OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
HELICITY IS PROGGED. 0-3 KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KNOTS IN THAT
REGION. SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SEVERE LIMITED RISK FOR THE WEST
HALF FOR TONIGHT. HIRES MODELS SHOWS A PRETTY GOOD LINEAR MCS MOVING
INTO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
EAST DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING. AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY WITH BETTER
DEEP SHEAR AND FORCING SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY.
HIRES MODELS ALSO SHOWS A GOOD LINEAR MCS CROSSING THE REGION AT
THIS TIME...WHICH WILL HOLD TOGETHER BETTER. WILL KEEP THE PRIMARY
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.

AS FAR AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS CONCERN FOR THE SHORT
TERM. WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH PWATS IT WILL BE A
CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN THAT HIGH
WITH SOME LOCALIZED 4 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST MADISON...NORTH HINDS
AND LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REVISIT THE MATTER...ESP
WITH CONVECTION BEING A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IF THINGS DO COME TOGETHER MAY HAVE TO
LOOK AT A FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THAT PERIOD. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
GRAPHICS FOR THAT PERIOD FOR NOW./17/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA WHERE PWS WILL BE BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF. PWS AROUND AN INCH
AND THREE QUARTERS WILL RESIDE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES MAINTAINING A WARM MOIST
FEED FROM THE GULF. A MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
OUR CWA DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND LEAD TO A DECENT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR LOOK TO REMAIN QUITE LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY BUT MODELS SUGGEST VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND 29 AND DCAPE AROUND
1200J/KG OVER OUR DELTA REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WHERE A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT RIDGING ALOFT
WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TO END THE WORK WEEK. BY SATURDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS IS A
LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONGER WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS POPS
WILL INCREASE GOING INTO SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST WEST OF OUR CWA MONDAY EVENING.
NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE MID 60S AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 85 TO 87F. DUE
TO MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. /22/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/EC/17/22




000
FXUS64 KJAN 250911
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
411 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) EXPECTING A RATHER
ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

LATEST VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN UPPER BROAD TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES WITH MEAN UPPER RIDGING NOTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WAS ROTATING ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WE WERE ON THE DEEP
INFLOW REGION. SO FAR IN THE PAST FEW DAYS THE MEAN RIDGE HEIGHTS
HAS BE DEFLECTING OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
COMBINE WITH STRONG NORTHWARD MOVEMENTS OF THE STORMS. AREA RADARS
CONTINUED TO PICK OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO PICK UP DEEP GULF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES...WHICH WAS
RESULTING IN VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL MODE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. MODEL AND 00Z SNDGS WERE SHOWING SOME IMPRESSIVE FLOW INT
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS FOR LATE MAY ESP WEST OF THE REGION.

FOR TODAY THE SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE REGION OVERNIGHT HAS PULLED
AWAY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS OF EARLY TODAY. SO WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH GOOD PWATS CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY FOR
TODAY GOING INTO TONIGHT. HIRES MODELS SHOWS THAT AFTER THIS MORNING
THAT WE WILL NOT GET MUCH COVERAGE BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM AS THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE A BREATHER. BY 3 MID DAYTIME HEATING WILL KICK
IN AS CONVECTION BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH TOWARD THE EVENING
HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS/MS VALLEY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE ACROSS THE DELTA...WHERE THE BEST OVERLAY OF
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND HELICITY IS PROGGED. 0-3 KM SHEAR WILL
BE AROUND 40 KNOTS IN THAT REGION. SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SEVERE
LIMITED RISK FOR THE WEST HALF FOR TONIGHT. HIRES MODELS SHOWS A
PRETTY GOOD LINEAR MCS MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE EAST DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING. AS
WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY WITH BETTER DEEP SHEAR AND FORCING SPREADS EAST
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HIRES MODELS ALSO SHOWS A GOOD LINEAR
MCS CROSSING THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WHICH WILL HOLD TOGETHER
BETTER. WILL KEEP THE PRIMARY RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND A
TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

AS FAR AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS CONCERN FOR THE SHORT
TERM. WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH PWATS IT WILL BE A
CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN THAT HIGH
WITH SOME LOCALIZED 4 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST MADISON...NORTH HINDS
AND LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REVISIT THE MATTER...ESP
WITH CONVECTION BEING A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IF THINGS DO COME TOGETHER MAY HAVE TO
LOOK AT A FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THAT PERIOD. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
GRAPHICS FOR THAT PERIOD FOR NOW./17/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA WHERE PWS WILL BE BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF. PWS AROUND AN INCH
AND THREE QUARTERS WILL RESIDE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES MAINTAINING A WARM MOIST
FEED FROM THE GULF. A MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
OUR CWA DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND LEAD TO A DECENT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR LOOK TO REMAIN QUITE LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY BUT MODELS SUGGEST VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND 29 AND DCAPE AROUND
1200J/KG OVER OUR DELTA REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WHERE A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT RIDGING ALOFT
WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TO END THE WORK WEEK. BY SATURDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS IS A
LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONGER WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS POPS
WILL INCREASE GOING INTO SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST WEST OF OUR CWA MONDAY EVENING.
NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE MID 60S AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 85 TO 87F. DUE
TO MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED AND SOME STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE
FREQUENCY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL HAZARDS FOR VFR
TRAFFIC./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       82  71  81  69 /  66  70  84  50
MERIDIAN      80  69  80  69 /  68  52  81  57
VICKSBURG     84  71  81  70 /  62  86  84  41
HATTIESBURG   81  71  82  70 /  70  55  75  53
NATCHEZ       84  72  81  70 /  66  83  83  41
GREENVILLE    83  71  80  69 /  69  90  84  39
GREENWOOD     83  70  79  68 /  68  82  87  48

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/22/17





000
FXUS64 KJAN 250911
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
411 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) EXPECTING A RATHER
ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

LATEST VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN UPPER BROAD TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES WITH MEAN UPPER RIDGING NOTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WAS ROTATING ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WE WERE ON THE DEEP
INFLOW REGION. SO FAR IN THE PAST FEW DAYS THE MEAN RIDGE HEIGHTS
HAS BE DEFLECTING OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
COMBINE WITH STRONG NORTHWARD MOVEMENTS OF THE STORMS. AREA RADARS
CONTINUED TO PICK OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO PICK UP DEEP GULF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES...WHICH WAS
RESULTING IN VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL MODE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. MODEL AND 00Z SNDGS WERE SHOWING SOME IMPRESSIVE FLOW INT
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS FOR LATE MAY ESP WEST OF THE REGION.

FOR TODAY THE SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE REGION OVERNIGHT HAS PULLED
AWAY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS OF EARLY TODAY. SO WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH GOOD PWATS CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY FOR
TODAY GOING INTO TONIGHT. HIRES MODELS SHOWS THAT AFTER THIS MORNING
THAT WE WILL NOT GET MUCH COVERAGE BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM AS THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE A BREATHER. BY 3 MID DAYTIME HEATING WILL KICK
IN AS CONVECTION BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH TOWARD THE EVENING
HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS/MS VALLEY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE ACROSS THE DELTA...WHERE THE BEST OVERLAY OF
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND HELICITY IS PROGGED. 0-3 KM SHEAR WILL
BE AROUND 40 KNOTS IN THAT REGION. SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SEVERE
LIMITED RISK FOR THE WEST HALF FOR TONIGHT. HIRES MODELS SHOWS A
PRETTY GOOD LINEAR MCS MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE EAST DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING. AS
WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY WITH BETTER DEEP SHEAR AND FORCING SPREADS EAST
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HIRES MODELS ALSO SHOWS A GOOD LINEAR
MCS CROSSING THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WHICH WILL HOLD TOGETHER
BETTER. WILL KEEP THE PRIMARY RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND A
TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

AS FAR AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS CONCERN FOR THE SHORT
TERM. WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH PWATS IT WILL BE A
CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN THAT HIGH
WITH SOME LOCALIZED 4 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST MADISON...NORTH HINDS
AND LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REVISIT THE MATTER...ESP
WITH CONVECTION BEING A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IF THINGS DO COME TOGETHER MAY HAVE TO
LOOK AT A FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THAT PERIOD. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
GRAPHICS FOR THAT PERIOD FOR NOW./17/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA WHERE PWS WILL BE BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF. PWS AROUND AN INCH
AND THREE QUARTERS WILL RESIDE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES MAINTAINING A WARM MOIST
FEED FROM THE GULF. A MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
OUR CWA DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND LEAD TO A DECENT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR LOOK TO REMAIN QUITE LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY BUT MODELS SUGGEST VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND 29 AND DCAPE AROUND
1200J/KG OVER OUR DELTA REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WHERE A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT RIDGING ALOFT
WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TO END THE WORK WEEK. BY SATURDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS IS A
LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONGER WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS POPS
WILL INCREASE GOING INTO SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST WEST OF OUR CWA MONDAY EVENING.
NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE MID 60S AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 85 TO 87F. DUE
TO MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED AND SOME STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE
FREQUENCY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL HAZARDS FOR VFR
TRAFFIC./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       82  71  81  69 /  66  70  84  50
MERIDIAN      80  69  80  69 /  68  52  81  57
VICKSBURG     84  71  81  70 /  62  86  84  41
HATTIESBURG   81  71  82  70 /  70  55  75  53
NATCHEZ       84  72  81  70 /  66  83  83  41
GREENVILLE    83  71  80  69 /  69  90  84  39
GREENWOOD     83  70  79  68 /  68  82  87  48

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/22/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 250152 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
855 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...FIRST OFF...WANTED TO CONFIRM THAT TORNADO WATCH #204 HAS
INDEED EXPIRED FOR ALL OF OUR COVERAGE REGION. IT WAS LOCALLY
EXTENDED FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO OUR SOUTH BY THE NEW ORLEANS
OFFICE...WHICH RESULTED IN SOME CONFUSION.

BUT DESPITE THE WATCH EXPIRING FOR OUR REGION THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN A LINGERING POTENTIAL
FOR A STRAY SEVERE STORM WILL REMAIN WELL INTO TONIGHT. CURRENT
ANALYSIS REVEALS IMPRESSIVE NORTHWARD GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP
(AND A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF) THE MS RIVER AXIS WITH A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES (VERY HIGH FOR
THE DATE) ARE COINCIDENT WITH THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS AND THE
JUXTAPOSITION OF MOISTURE...LIFT...AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE
HEART OF OUR REGION. SHEAR LEVELS ARE SUCH THAT EVEN WITH MLCAPE
VALUES UNDER 1000 J/KG A STRAY SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND
INDEED MANY STORMS WILL CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
FORTUNATELY...LATEST HRRR HIRES OUTPUT SUGGESTS AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN (AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT) ASSOCIATED WITH SAID TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE
EXITING TO THE EAST BY DAYBREAK. IF THIS AXIS WERE EXPECTED TO STALL
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ISSUES OVERNIGHT WOULD GO WAY UP...BUT
EVEN WITH THAT NOT ANTICIPATED THERE IS STILL SOME POSSIBILITY OF
FLASH FLOODING (WHICH WAS MENTIONED IN THE UPDATED HWO). /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BRING BRIEF
POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS AND VIS RESTRICTION IFR OR WORSE. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL NUMEROUS STORMS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY LATE) WITH OF COURSE
POTENTIAL HAZARDS FOR EXCLUSIVELY VFR TRAFFIC. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AIDED BY BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WHILE CONVECTION HASN`T BEEN
PARTICULARLY DEEP SO FAR TODAY...SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE STILL BEEN
EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS. TORNADO WATCH 204 HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL
OF OUR LA PARISHES/AR COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL MS.
HOWEVER THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOW END...
ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
RATHER MARGINAL SRH AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH NEITHER EXPECTED TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS PER SPC SSEO/RECENT RAP RUNS. BUFR SOUNDING ANALYSIS/VWPS
ARE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. HOWEVER DEEP LAYER/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS
INCREASING OVER MUCH OF THE DELTA...SO THERE IS GREATER CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.

EVEN AS THE SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION...SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS MID/UPPER
FLOW WILL BE NEARLY MERIDIONAL THUS NOT GIVING ACTIVITY MUCH OF AN
EASTWARD PUSH OUT OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS/MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE ACROSS THE DELTA...WHERE THE BEST OVERLAY OF
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND HELICITY IS PROGGED. SIMILARLY WE MAY
SOME CONVECTION BECOME REINVIGORATED FARTHER EAST ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY AS STRONGER FORCING
SPREADS EASTWARD.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS PWATS INCREASE TO
AROUND 1 3/4 INCH. IT APPEARS WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE A NOTABLE FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER
FLOODING COULD BECOME A GREATER CONCERN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST (PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 IN) AND
THE GROUND WILL HAVE BECOME MORE SATURATED DUE TO RAIN FROM
TODAY/TONIGHT. /DL/

LONG TERM...AS WE GO INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD WE WILL SEE SOME
HEIGHT RISES AS WE GO TOWARD A MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN REGIME FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE MEAN RIDGE WILL FLUCTUATE
SOME DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  81  70  81 /  87  62  46  76
MERIDIAN      69  80  69  80 /  46  63  40  79
VICKSBURG     71  84  71  81 /  95  60  67  79
HATTIESBURG   71  81  71  82 /  62  71  42  73
NATCHEZ       71  84  71  81 /  90  66  66  77
GREENVILLE    70  83  70  80 /  89  69  74  78
GREENWOOD     71  83  70  79 /  92  66  58  79

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/DL/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 250152 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
855 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...FIRST OFF...WANTED TO CONFIRM THAT TORNADO WATCH #204 HAS
INDEED EXPIRED FOR ALL OF OUR COVERAGE REGION. IT WAS LOCALLY
EXTENDED FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO OUR SOUTH BY THE NEW ORLEANS
OFFICE...WHICH RESULTED IN SOME CONFUSION.

BUT DESPITE THE WATCH EXPIRING FOR OUR REGION THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN A LINGERING POTENTIAL
FOR A STRAY SEVERE STORM WILL REMAIN WELL INTO TONIGHT. CURRENT
ANALYSIS REVEALS IMPRESSIVE NORTHWARD GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP
(AND A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF) THE MS RIVER AXIS WITH A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES (VERY HIGH FOR
THE DATE) ARE COINCIDENT WITH THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS AND THE
JUXTAPOSITION OF MOISTURE...LIFT...AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE
HEART OF OUR REGION. SHEAR LEVELS ARE SUCH THAT EVEN WITH MLCAPE
VALUES UNDER 1000 J/KG A STRAY SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND
INDEED MANY STORMS WILL CONTAIN WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
FORTUNATELY...LATEST HRRR HIRES OUTPUT SUGGESTS AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN (AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT) ASSOCIATED WITH SAID TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE
EXITING TO THE EAST BY DAYBREAK. IF THIS AXIS WERE EXPECTED TO STALL
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ISSUES OVERNIGHT WOULD GO WAY UP...BUT
EVEN WITH THAT NOT ANTICIPATED THERE IS STILL SOME POSSIBILITY OF
FLASH FLOODING (WHICH WAS MENTIONED IN THE UPDATED HWO). /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BRING BRIEF
POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS AND VIS RESTRICTION IFR OR WORSE. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL NUMEROUS STORMS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY LATE) WITH OF COURSE
POTENTIAL HAZARDS FOR EXCLUSIVELY VFR TRAFFIC. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AIDED BY BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WHILE CONVECTION HASN`T BEEN
PARTICULARLY DEEP SO FAR TODAY...SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE STILL BEEN
EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS. TORNADO WATCH 204 HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL
OF OUR LA PARISHES/AR COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL MS.
HOWEVER THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOW END...
ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
RATHER MARGINAL SRH AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH NEITHER EXPECTED TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS PER SPC SSEO/RECENT RAP RUNS. BUFR SOUNDING ANALYSIS/VWPS
ARE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. HOWEVER DEEP LAYER/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS
INCREASING OVER MUCH OF THE DELTA...SO THERE IS GREATER CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.

EVEN AS THE SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION...SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS MID/UPPER
FLOW WILL BE NEARLY MERIDIONAL THUS NOT GIVING ACTIVITY MUCH OF AN
EASTWARD PUSH OUT OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS/MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE ACROSS THE DELTA...WHERE THE BEST OVERLAY OF
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND HELICITY IS PROGGED. SIMILARLY WE MAY
SOME CONVECTION BECOME REINVIGORATED FARTHER EAST ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY AS STRONGER FORCING
SPREADS EASTWARD.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS PWATS INCREASE TO
AROUND 1 3/4 INCH. IT APPEARS WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE A NOTABLE FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER
FLOODING COULD BECOME A GREATER CONCERN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST (PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 IN) AND
THE GROUND WILL HAVE BECOME MORE SATURATED DUE TO RAIN FROM
TODAY/TONIGHT. /DL/

LONG TERM...AS WE GO INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD WE WILL SEE SOME
HEIGHT RISES AS WE GO TOWARD A MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN REGIME FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE MEAN RIDGE WILL FLUCTUATE
SOME DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  81  70  81 /  87  62  46  76
MERIDIAN      69  80  69  80 /  46  63  40  79
VICKSBURG     71  84  71  81 /  95  60  67  79
HATTIESBURG   71  81  71  82 /  62  71  42  73
NATCHEZ       71  84  71  81 /  90  66  66  77
GREENVILLE    70  83  70  80 /  89  69  74  78
GREENWOOD     71  83  70  79 /  92  66  58  79

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/DL/17





000
FXUS64 KJAN 242137
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
437 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AIDED BY BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WHILE CONVECTION HASN`T BEEN
PARTICULARLY DEEP SO FAR TODAY...SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE STILL BEEN
EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS. TORNADO WATCH 204 HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL
OF OUR LA PARISHES/AR COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL MS.
HOWEVER THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE ON THE LOW END...
ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
RATHER MARGINAL SRH AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH NEITHER EXPECTED TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS PER SPC SSEO/RECENT RAP RUNS. BUFR SOUNDING ANALYSIS/VWPS
ARE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. HOWEVER DEEP LAYER/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS
INCREASING OVER MUCH OF THE DELTA...SO THERE IS GREATER CONCERN FOR
POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.

EVEN AS THE SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION...SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS MID/UPPER
FLOW WILL BE NEARLY MERIDIONAL THUS NOT GIVING ACTIVITY MUCH OF AN
EASTWARD PUSH OUT OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS/MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE ACROSS THE DELTA...WHERE THE BEST OVERLAY OF
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND HELICITY IS PROGGED. SIMILARLY WE MAY
SOME CONVECTION BECOME REINVIGORATED FARTHER EAST ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY AS STRONGER FORCING
SPREADS EASTWARD.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS PWATS INCREASE TO
AROUND 1 3/4 INCH. IT APPEARS WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE A NOTABLE FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER
FLOODING COULD BECOME A GREATER CONCERN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST (PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 IN) AND
THE GROUND WILL HAVE BECOME MORE SATURATED DUE TO RAIN FROM
TODAY/TONIGHT. /DL/

LONG TERM...AS WE GO INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD WE WILL SEE SOME
HEIGHT RISES AS WE GO TOWARD A MORE DIURNAL DRIVEN REGIME FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE MEAN RIDGE WILL FLUCTUATE
SOME DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD./17/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AT MOST
TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BRING BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR
CEILINGS AND VIS RESTRICTION IFR OR WORSE...AND ALSO SOME VERY GUSTY
WINDS. EVEN AWAY FROM THE STORMS EXPECT RATHER WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
NUMEROUS STORMS TOMORROW WITH OF COURSE POTENTIAL HAZARDS FOR
EXCLUSIVELY VFR TRAFFIC. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  81  70  81 /  64  62  46  76
MERIDIAN      69  80  69  80 /  39  60  40  79
VICKSBURG     71  84  71  81 /  73  60  67  79
HATTIESBURG   71  81  71  82 /  56  66  42  73
NATCHEZ       71  84  71  81 /  70  66  66  77
GREENVILLE    70  83  70  80 /  83  69  74  78
GREENWOOD     71  83  70  79 /  79  66  58  79

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/17/BB




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