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000
FXUS64 KJAN 282036
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
236 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TONIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
HIGH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING
INCREASING S/SW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. 925 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 30-40
KT BY SAT AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT RIGHT NOW
APPEARS AS THOUGH RELATIVELY LIMITED MIXING IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HOLD DOWN GUST POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT...AND KEEP
WINDS BLO ANY NEED FOR MENTION IN HWO. GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL
BEGIN TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY LEAD
TO RATHER PERSISTENT STRATO/CU IN FAR WESTERN AREAS THROUGH SAT WHILE
EASTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD SAT NIGHT AND MORE PERSISTENT ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.

IN SPITE OF THESE CLOUDS...ADVECTION OF WARM/MOIST GULF AIR WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...AND UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL HAVE A LARGE WEST
TO EAST GRADIENT AS INCREASING MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL LEAD
TO TEMPS BEING HELD UP IN WEST...WHILE EAST SHOULD SEE MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS WITH MORE DECOUPLING AND A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
MORE UNIFORM LOWS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS INCREASING CLOUDS AND WIND KEEP
LOWS IN THE 50S...ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...
EARLY WEEK FOCUS WILL BE ON 1040+ MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING THROUGH
CENTRAL CONUS...AND ASSOCIATED PUSH OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TOWARD
REGION. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND SHOW
FRONT ARRIVING OVER UPPER DELTA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...AND THEN
OOZING SE ACROSS AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. VERY SHARP THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS AREA MONDAY WITH FRONT IN AREA...WITH
RANGE FROM UPPER 30S IN FAR NW TO 70S IN SE LATE MON. LEANED TOWARD A
BLEND OF NAM/GFS TEMPS FOR MON AND MON NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR NON-
DIURNAL TREND IN TEMPS. EXPECT INCREASING RISK FOR SHRA MON INTO MON
EVENING FROM THE NW DUE TO WARM/MOIST AIR BEING FORCED ISENTROPICALLY
OVER THE SHALLOW COLD DOME PUSHING INTO THE AREA. ANALYSIS OF FORCING
AND JET POSITIONS INDICATE LITTLE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL
MOTION BEYOND THIS...SO FOR NOW GUIDANCE POPS IN THE 30 TO 50 PCT
RANGE APPEAR REASONABLE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

FOR MIDWEEK MODELS AGREE ON PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS CONUS WITH
MAIN JET DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK.                                        /AEG/

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUING
SOUTH WINDS AT 8 TO 12 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT AT GLH/GWO. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AT LEAST A BIT THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WILL YIELD TO MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK AT GLH/GWO/JAN/HKS. AT PIB/HBG THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUB-VFR IS NOT AS HIGH ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR IS A POSSIBILITY.
FLIGHT CATS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN ALL AREAS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AT
THE LATEST WITH WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY
IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       41  67  55  72 /   0   4   6   9
MERIDIAN      33  67  52  72 /   0   2   6   8
VICKSBURG     41  70  56  73 /   0   5   6  10
HATTIESBURG   39  69  54  74 /   0   2   5   7
NATCHEZ       44  70  57  73 /   0   3   6  10
GREENVILLE    41  68  57  71 /   0   8   7  13
GREENWOOD     39  65  56  71 /   0   7   7  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AEG/BB






000
FXUS64 KJAN 282036
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
236 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TONIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
HIGH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING
INCREASING S/SW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. 925 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 30-40
KT BY SAT AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT RIGHT NOW
APPEARS AS THOUGH RELATIVELY LIMITED MIXING IN AREAS WITH STRONGEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HOLD DOWN GUST POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT...AND KEEP
WINDS BLO ANY NEED FOR MENTION IN HWO. GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL
BEGIN TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY LEAD
TO RATHER PERSISTENT STRATO/CU IN FAR WESTERN AREAS THROUGH SAT WHILE
EASTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD SAT NIGHT AND MORE PERSISTENT ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.

IN SPITE OF THESE CLOUDS...ADVECTION OF WARM/MOIST GULF AIR WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...AND UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL HAVE A LARGE WEST
TO EAST GRADIENT AS INCREASING MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL LEAD
TO TEMPS BEING HELD UP IN WEST...WHILE EAST SHOULD SEE MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS WITH MORE DECOUPLING AND A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
MORE UNIFORM LOWS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS INCREASING CLOUDS AND WIND KEEP
LOWS IN THE 50S...ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...
EARLY WEEK FOCUS WILL BE ON 1040+ MB ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING THROUGH
CENTRAL CONUS...AND ASSOCIATED PUSH OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TOWARD
REGION. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND SHOW
FRONT ARRIVING OVER UPPER DELTA AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...AND THEN
OOZING SE ACROSS AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. VERY SHARP THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS AREA MONDAY WITH FRONT IN AREA...WITH
RANGE FROM UPPER 30S IN FAR NW TO 70S IN SE LATE MON. LEANED TOWARD A
BLEND OF NAM/GFS TEMPS FOR MON AND MON NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR NON-
DIURNAL TREND IN TEMPS. EXPECT INCREASING RISK FOR SHRA MON INTO MON
EVENING FROM THE NW DUE TO WARM/MOIST AIR BEING FORCED ISENTROPICALLY
OVER THE SHALLOW COLD DOME PUSHING INTO THE AREA. ANALYSIS OF FORCING
AND JET POSITIONS INDICATE LITTLE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL
MOTION BEYOND THIS...SO FOR NOW GUIDANCE POPS IN THE 30 TO 50 PCT
RANGE APPEAR REASONABLE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

FOR MIDWEEK MODELS AGREE ON PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS CONUS WITH
MAIN JET DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK.                                        /AEG/

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUING
SOUTH WINDS AT 8 TO 12 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT AT GLH/GWO. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AT LEAST A BIT THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WILL YIELD TO MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK AT GLH/GWO/JAN/HKS. AT PIB/HBG THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUB-VFR IS NOT AS HIGH ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR IS A POSSIBILITY.
FLIGHT CATS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN ALL AREAS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AT
THE LATEST WITH WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY
IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       41  67  55  72 /   0   4   6   9
MERIDIAN      33  67  52  72 /   0   2   6   8
VICKSBURG     41  70  56  73 /   0   5   6  10
HATTIESBURG   39  69  54  74 /   0   2   5   7
NATCHEZ       44  70  57  73 /   0   3   6  10
GREENVILLE    41  68  57  71 /   0   8   7  13
GREENWOOD     39  65  56  71 /   0   7   7  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AEG/BB







000
FXUS64 KJAN 281607 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1007 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
HARD TO IMAGINE A MORE QUIET LATE FALL DAY. COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT S/SW WINDS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PULLS EAST OF
AREA. TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH MAXES A BIT BELOW CLIMO.        /AEG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...TODAY WILL BE A DAY OF
TRANSITION AS HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONS ITSELF EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...WHILE OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO
BECOME MORE ZONAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME...RESULTING IN WARMING
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGHS TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.  AGAIN...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER
EAST MISSISSIPPI TO AROUND 50 WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THEN
ON SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL PEAK FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. /19/

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION UNDER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWATS WILL INCREASE FROM
0.6 TO AROUND 1.3 BY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH TO SOUTH OF THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS OR ZONES. THE RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT OF
THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE EURO TRIES TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IT WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
GENERALLY DRY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION...WHICH IS
AGREED BY THE GFS AND EURO. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS AND REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT COULD
BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...PERHAPS RESULTING IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS AROUND DAY
BREAK WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       58  42  68  52 /   0   0   4   6
MERIDIAN      56  35  68  49 /   0   0   2   6
VICKSBURG     60  43  70  52 /   0   0   5   6
HATTIESBURG   59  41  70  53 /   0   0   2   5
NATCHEZ       61  48  71  56 /   0   0   3   6
GREENVILLE    56  44  69  55 /   0   0   8   7
GREENWOOD     57  41  67  55 /   0   0   7   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AEG







000
FXUS64 KJAN 281607 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1007 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
HARD TO IMAGINE A MORE QUIET LATE FALL DAY. COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT S/SW WINDS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PULLS EAST OF
AREA. TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH MAXES A BIT BELOW CLIMO.        /AEG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...TODAY WILL BE A DAY OF
TRANSITION AS HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONS ITSELF EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...WHILE OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO
BECOME MORE ZONAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME...RESULTING IN WARMING
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGHS TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.  AGAIN...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER
EAST MISSISSIPPI TO AROUND 50 WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THEN
ON SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL PEAK FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. /19/

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION UNDER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWATS WILL INCREASE FROM
0.6 TO AROUND 1.3 BY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH TO SOUTH OF THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS OR ZONES. THE RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT OF
THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE EURO TRIES TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IT WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
GENERALLY DRY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION...WHICH IS
AGREED BY THE GFS AND EURO. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS AND REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT COULD
BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...PERHAPS RESULTING IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS AROUND DAY
BREAK WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       58  42  68  52 /   0   0   4   6
MERIDIAN      56  35  68  49 /   0   0   2   6
VICKSBURG     60  43  70  52 /   0   0   5   6
HATTIESBURG   59  41  70  53 /   0   0   2   5
NATCHEZ       61  48  71  56 /   0   0   3   6
GREENVILLE    56  44  69  55 /   0   0   8   7
GREENWOOD     57  41  67  55 /   0   0   7   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AEG






000
FXUS64 KJAN 280940
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
340 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...TODAY WILL BE A DAY OF
TRANSITION AS HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONS ITSELF EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...WHILE OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO
BECOME MORE ZONAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME...RESULTING IN WARMING
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGHS TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.  AGAIN...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER
EAST MISSISSIPPI TO AROUND 50 WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THEN
ON SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL PEAK FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. /19/

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION UNDER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWATS WILL INCREASE FROM
0.6 TO AROUND 1.3 BY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH TO SOUTH OF THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS OR ZONES. THE RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT OF
THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE EURO TRIES TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IT WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
GENERALLY DRY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION...WHICH IS
AGREED BY THE GFS AND EURO. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS NOTED OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH THE PERIOD.  INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT COULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PERHAPS RESULTING IN SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND DAY BREAK WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       58  42  68  52 /   0   0   4   5
MERIDIAN      56  35  68  49 /   0   0   2   5
VICKSBURG     60  43  70  52 /   0   0   5   5
HATTIESBURG   59  41  70  53 /   0   0   2   5
NATCHEZ       61  48  71  56 /   0   0   3   5
GREENVILLE    56  44  69  55 /   0   0   8   5
GREENWOOD     57  41  67  55 /   0   0   7   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/17







000
FXUS64 KJAN 280940
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
340 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...TODAY WILL BE A DAY OF
TRANSITION AS HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONS ITSELF EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...WHILE OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO
BECOME MORE ZONAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME...RESULTING IN WARMING
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGHS TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.  AGAIN...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER
EAST MISSISSIPPI TO AROUND 50 WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THEN
ON SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL PEAK FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. /19/

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION UNDER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. PWATS WILL INCREASE FROM
0.6 TO AROUND 1.3 BY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH TO SOUTH OF THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FOR MONDAY BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS OR ZONES. THE RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT OF
THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE EURO TRIES TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IT WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE
GENERALLY DRY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION...WHICH IS
AGREED BY THE GFS AND EURO. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS NOTED OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH THE PERIOD.  INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT COULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PERHAPS RESULTING IN SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND DAY BREAK WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       58  42  68  52 /   0   0   4   5
MERIDIAN      56  35  68  49 /   0   0   2   5
VICKSBURG     60  43  70  52 /   0   0   5   5
HATTIESBURG   59  41  70  53 /   0   0   2   5
NATCHEZ       61  48  71  56 /   0   0   3   5
GREENVILLE    56  44  69  55 /   0   0   8   5
GREENWOOD     57  41  67  55 /   0   0   7   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/17






000
FXUS64 KJAN 280307 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
907 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE ARKLAMISS REGION AS THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WITH CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL
DECENTLY THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
A COLD NIGHT FOR THOSE VENTURING OUT TO LATE NIGHT SHOPPING. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-20 WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
SOUTH OF I-20. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S AND AROUND
30 FOR THE ARKLAMISS. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT DID DROP
LOWS TONIGHT PER THE CURRENT TRENDS. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. /SW/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...SKY CONDITIONS MAY BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE
TROUGH AXIS STILL SEEMS TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH...DRY AIR
FROM THE WEST WAS FINALLY ERODING THE CLOUD DECK. EXPECTING THE AREA
TO BE CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE
NOSING INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW...NOT ANTICIPATING ANOTHER
OVERCAST PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES TONIGHT...BUT MAY
SEE SOME HIGH STUFF. USED A BLEND FOR THE LOWS. THE MAV TOOK THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE MID 20S...LOOKING FOR WINDS TO COME AROUND BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MORNING. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL
RETURN ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT BOUNDARY. THE AREA MAY SEE SOME
HIGHS IN THE 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN/CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH
TUESDAY. NOT SOLD ON THE LOW TEMPS DURING THAT PERIOD WITH CLOUDS
AND WARM AIR HANGING AROUND...NOT SURE WE WILL REALLY SEE VALUES
NEAR 40. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WITH SOME RAIN. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...KEPT THE HAZARDS CLEAR. /07/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       30  58  44  67 /   0   0   3   6
MERIDIAN      28  56  39  68 /   0   0   3   2
VICKSBURG     27  59  45  70 /   0   0   4   8
HATTIESBURG   30  58  41  69 /   0   0   4   4
NATCHEZ       30  60  48  70 /   0   0   4   7
GREENVILLE    28  55  45  67 /   0   0   4   9
GREENWOOD     27  56  44  66 /   0   0   3   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/SW/7/







000
FXUS64 KJAN 280307 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
907 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE ARKLAMISS REGION AS THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WITH CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL
DECENTLY THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
A COLD NIGHT FOR THOSE VENTURING OUT TO LATE NIGHT SHOPPING. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-20 WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
SOUTH OF I-20. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 20S AND AROUND
30 FOR THE ARKLAMISS. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT DID DROP
LOWS TONIGHT PER THE CURRENT TRENDS. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. /SW/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...SKY CONDITIONS MAY BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE
TROUGH AXIS STILL SEEMS TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH...DRY AIR
FROM THE WEST WAS FINALLY ERODING THE CLOUD DECK. EXPECTING THE AREA
TO BE CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE
NOSING INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW...NOT ANTICIPATING ANOTHER
OVERCAST PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES TONIGHT...BUT MAY
SEE SOME HIGH STUFF. USED A BLEND FOR THE LOWS. THE MAV TOOK THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE MID 20S...LOOKING FOR WINDS TO COME AROUND BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MORNING. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL
RETURN ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT BOUNDARY. THE AREA MAY SEE SOME
HIGHS IN THE 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN/CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH
TUESDAY. NOT SOLD ON THE LOW TEMPS DURING THAT PERIOD WITH CLOUDS
AND WARM AIR HANGING AROUND...NOT SURE WE WILL REALLY SEE VALUES
NEAR 40. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WITH SOME RAIN. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...KEPT THE HAZARDS CLEAR. /07/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       30  58  44  67 /   0   0   3   6
MERIDIAN      28  56  39  68 /   0   0   3   2
VICKSBURG     27  59  45  70 /   0   0   4   8
HATTIESBURG   30  58  41  69 /   0   0   4   4
NATCHEZ       30  60  48  70 /   0   0   4   7
GREENVILLE    28  55  45  67 /   0   0   4   9
GREENWOOD     27  56  44  66 /   0   0   3   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/SW/7/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 272232
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
432 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...SKY CONDITIONS MAY BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE
TROUGH AXIS STILL SEEMS TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH...DRY AIR
FROM THE WEST WAS FINALLY ERODING THE CLOUD DECK. EXPECTING THE AREA
TO BE CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE
NOSING INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW...NOT ANTICIPATING ANOTHER
OVERCAST PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES TONIGHT...BUT MAY
SEE SOME HIGH STUFF. USED A BLEND FOR THE LOWS. THE MAV TOOK THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE MID 20S...LOOKING FOR WINDS TO COME AROUND BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MORNING. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL
RETURN ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT BOUNDARY. THE AREA MAY SEE SOME
HIGHS IN THE 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN/CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH
TUESDAY. NOT SOLD ON THE LOW TEMPS DURING THAT PERIOD WITH CLOUDS
AND WARM AIR HANGING AROUND...NOT SURE WE WILL REALLY SEE VALUES
NEAR 40. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WITH SOME RAIN. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...KEPT THE HAZARDS CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...THE FLOW HAS RELAXED WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO FRI AM...WITH SWLY WINDS DEVELOPING FRI AS HIGH PULLS EAST OF
AREA. /08/



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       32  58  44  67 /   0   0   3   6
MERIDIAN      30  56  39  68 /   0   0   3   2
VICKSBURG     29  59  45  70 /   0   0   4   8
HATTIESBURG   31  58  41  69 /   0   0   4   4
NATCHEZ       30  60  48  70 /   0   0   4   7
GREENVILLE    32  55  45  67 /   0   0   4   9
GREENWOOD     30  56  44  66 /   0   0   3   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7/8







000
FXUS64 KJAN 272232
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
432 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...SKY CONDITIONS MAY BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE
TROUGH AXIS STILL SEEMS TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH...DRY AIR
FROM THE WEST WAS FINALLY ERODING THE CLOUD DECK. EXPECTING THE AREA
TO BE CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE
NOSING INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW...NOT ANTICIPATING ANOTHER
OVERCAST PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES TONIGHT...BUT MAY
SEE SOME HIGH STUFF. USED A BLEND FOR THE LOWS. THE MAV TOOK THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE MID 20S...LOOKING FOR WINDS TO COME AROUND BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MORNING. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL
RETURN ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT BOUNDARY. THE AREA MAY SEE SOME
HIGHS IN THE 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN/CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH
TUESDAY. NOT SOLD ON THE LOW TEMPS DURING THAT PERIOD WITH CLOUDS
AND WARM AIR HANGING AROUND...NOT SURE WE WILL REALLY SEE VALUES
NEAR 40. THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WITH SOME RAIN. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...KEPT THE HAZARDS CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...THE FLOW HAS RELAXED WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO FRI AM...WITH SWLY WINDS DEVELOPING FRI AS HIGH PULLS EAST OF
AREA. /08/



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       32  58  44  67 /   0   0   3   6
MERIDIAN      30  56  39  68 /   0   0   3   2
VICKSBURG     29  59  45  70 /   0   0   4   8
HATTIESBURG   31  58  41  69 /   0   0   4   4
NATCHEZ       30  60  48  70 /   0   0   4   7
GREENVILLE    32  55  45  67 /   0   0   4   9
GREENWOOD     30  56  44  66 /   0   0   3   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7/8






000
FXUS64 KJAN 271701
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1101 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...OVERALL THE FORECAST WAS GOOD. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE MID SOUTH SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WITH THE AREA CLOUDY AND COOLER THAN EXPECTED...TWEAKED THE
HOURLY VALUES AND INCREASED THE CLOUDS. MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GREAT
HANDLE ON WHEN THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR...SO KEPT THEM IN THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. LOWERED THE HIGHS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82 A DEGREE OR TWO.
RAISED VALUES IN THE CLEAR ZONE A DEGREE OR TWO...WHERE VALUES WERE
ALREADY WARMER THAN EXPECTED. EXPECTING THE RIDGE TO MOVE IN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BRING IN THE COLD AIR...SO LOOKING FOR VALUES
TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MAY HAVE TO SHOW VALUES STEADY UNDER
THE CLOUDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD. ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.


&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NW FLOW SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH TN THIS MORNING HAVE GOTTEN FAR ENOUGH SW TO AFFECT HIGHWAY
82 TAF SITES. AMDTS ISSUED TO SHOW THESE LOW CLOUDS BUT WITH CIGS
AROUND 3000 FT CONDITIONS STILL PRIMARILY VFR. THESE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY GIVEN
SHALLOW NATURE OF MOISTURE AND DECREASING SUPPORT. GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED ONCE THOSE CLOUDS ARE GONE. 925 MB NORTHERLY FLOW OF
20-25 KT IN COLD ADVECTION CREATED A LITTLE GUSTINESS THIS
MORNING...BUT THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RELAX THROUGH THE DAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRI AM...WITH SWLY WINDS DEVELOPING FRI AS
HIGH PULLS EAST OF AREA.                                /08/




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       52  29  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      52  27  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     53  28  61  43 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   57  29  60  41 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       54  30  62  49 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    47  31  57  44 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     48  28  57  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7/8






000
FXUS64 KJAN 270940
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
340 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM
THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT HERE AT NWS JACKSON!  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THUS...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...LOOK FOR COOL CONDITIONS THIS THANKSGIVING DAY AS HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THIS AIRMASS.  AS DOORS OPEN AT RETAIL
STORES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...LOWS WILL BE BOTTOMING OUT FROM THE
MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.  SO...IF YOU`RE PLANNING ON CAMPING OUT OR
STANDING IN LINE FOR THOSE BLACK FRIDAY "DOOR BUSTER DEALS"...BE
SURE TO DRESS WARM AND TAKE A THERMOS OF HOT COFFEE...HOT TEA...OR
HOT CHOCOLATE ALONG WITH YOU.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
WILL BE A TAD WARMER BOTH PERIODS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ENSUES. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH SOME CLOUDS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
THE ARKLAMISS AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO
BECOME MORE ZONAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL SUBTLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOLLOWING SUIT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIVERGE THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT
WEAK.  BOTH INDICATE A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THE GFS STALLS THIS FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION
AND EVENTUALLY WASHING IT OUT BY MID-WEEK.  THE ECMWF STALLS THE
INITIAL FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY.  THEN IT
BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.  BOTH
SOLUTIONS BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE
EXTENDED. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY...AND
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
HEAVY FROST IS EXPECTED ON EXPOSED AIRCRAFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       51  29  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      52  27  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     51  28  61  43 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   56  29  60  41 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       53  30  62  49 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    47  31  57  44 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     46  28  57  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/17







000
FXUS64 KJAN 270940
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
340 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM
THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT HERE AT NWS JACKSON!  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THUS...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...LOOK FOR COOL CONDITIONS THIS THANKSGIVING DAY AS HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THIS AIRMASS.  AS DOORS OPEN AT RETAIL
STORES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...LOWS WILL BE BOTTOMING OUT FROM THE
MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.  SO...IF YOU`RE PLANNING ON CAMPING OUT OR
STANDING IN LINE FOR THOSE BLACK FRIDAY "DOOR BUSTER DEALS"...BE
SURE TO DRESS WARM AND TAKE A THERMOS OF HOT COFFEE...HOT TEA...OR
HOT CHOCOLATE ALONG WITH YOU.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
WILL BE A TAD WARMER BOTH PERIODS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ENSUES. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH SOME CLOUDS MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
THE ARKLAMISS AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO
BECOME MORE ZONAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL SUBTLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOLLOWING SUIT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIVERGE THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT
WEAK.  BOTH INDICATE A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THE GFS STALLS THIS FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION
AND EVENTUALLY WASHING IT OUT BY MID-WEEK.  THE ECMWF STALLS THE
INITIAL FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY.  THEN IT
BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.  BOTH
SOLUTIONS BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE
EXTENDED. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY...AND
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
HEAVY FROST IS EXPECTED ON EXPOSED AIRCRAFT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       51  29  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      52  27  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     51  28  61  43 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   56  29  60  41 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       53  30  62  49 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    47  31  57  44 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     46  28  57  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/17






000
FXUS64 KJAN 270247
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
847 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST WAS GOOD. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COOLER TEMPS WHERE THE WINDS QUICKLY FELL
TO NEAR CALM. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. LOWER 30S WAS STILL GOOD. CLOUDS WERE
FINALLY MOVING OUT OF THE EAST...WILL MAKE THE AREA CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE THE BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE AREA FROM HEZ TO JAN TO JUST NORTH OF MEI. THE BOUNDARY PROBABLY
WILL NOT CLEAR THE CWA AS FAST THE MODEL ARE SHOWING...BUT EXPECTING
IT OUT OF THE AREA BY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A GRADIENT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MS/NORTHWEST ALABAMA...STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO
DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STILL LOOKING FOR A SUNNY AND COOL FALL DAY
TOMORROW. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE EAST MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 3KFT. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH VALUES AROUND 10KTS OR BELOW.
THERE WERE STILL A FEW GUSTS AT GTR...EXPECTING VALUES TO DIMINISH
AROUND 5Z. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS AROUND
10KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH HIGHER VALUES AND A FEW GUSTS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
MEI...GTR AND HBG.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       36  52  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      36  53  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     35  53  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   39  56  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       38  53  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    34  49  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     33  48  29  58 /   1   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7






000
FXUS64 KJAN 270247
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
847 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST WAS GOOD. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COOLER TEMPS WHERE THE WINDS QUICKLY FELL
TO NEAR CALM. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. LOWER 30S WAS STILL GOOD. CLOUDS WERE
FINALLY MOVING OUT OF THE EAST...WILL MAKE THE AREA CLEAR.

LOOKS LIKE THE BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE AREA FROM HEZ TO JAN TO JUST NORTH OF MEI. THE BOUNDARY PROBABLY
WILL NOT CLEAR THE CWA AS FAST THE MODEL ARE SHOWING...BUT EXPECTING
IT OUT OF THE AREA BY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A GRADIENT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MS/NORTHWEST ALABAMA...STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO
DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STILL LOOKING FOR A SUNNY AND COOL FALL DAY
TOMORROW. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE EAST MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 3KFT. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH VALUES AROUND 10KTS OR BELOW.
THERE WERE STILL A FEW GUSTS AT GTR...EXPECTING VALUES TO DIMINISH
AROUND 5Z. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS AROUND
10KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH HIGHER VALUES AND A FEW GUSTS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
MEI...GTR AND HBG.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       36  52  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      36  53  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     35  53  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   39  56  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       38  53  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    34  49  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     33  48  29  58 /   1   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7







000
FXUS64 KJAN 262021
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
221 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED TODAY WITH FULL SUN AND
STRONG MIXING RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF
30 TO 35 MPH...BUT WIND WILL DROP OFF AS WE COOL DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS TONIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF CHILLY AIR FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP WINDS UP
ENOUGH TONIGHT TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING BELOW FREEZING.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...FAVORABLE NIGHTTIME COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. AFTER A CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY. /EC/

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF US FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE REGION BEGINS
TO BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL SUBTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOLLOWING SUIT THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW DIVERGE A BIT ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEAK.  BOTH INDICATE A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY.  THE GFS REMAINS THE MORE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENT OF THE TWO IN STALLING THIS FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY WASHING IT OUT BY MID-WEEK.  THE ECMWF NOW STALLS THE
INITIAL FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY.  THEN IT
BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.  BOTH
SOLUTIONS BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE
EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       37  52  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      37  53  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     36  53  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   40  56  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       39  53  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    35  49  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     33  48  29  58 /   1   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

EC/28/19/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 262021
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
221 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED TODAY WITH FULL SUN AND
STRONG MIXING RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF
30 TO 35 MPH...BUT WIND WILL DROP OFF AS WE COOL DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS TONIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF CHILLY AIR FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP WINDS UP
ENOUGH TONIGHT TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING BELOW FREEZING.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...FAVORABLE NIGHTTIME COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. AFTER A CHILLY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY. /EC/

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF US FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE REGION BEGINS
TO BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL SUBTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOLLOWING SUIT THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW DIVERGE A BIT ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEAK.  BOTH INDICATE A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY.  THE GFS REMAINS THE MORE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENT OF THE TWO IN STALLING THIS FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY WASHING IT OUT BY MID-WEEK.  THE ECMWF NOW STALLS THE
INITIAL FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY.  THEN IT
BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.  BOTH
SOLUTIONS BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE
EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       37  52  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      37  53  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     36  53  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   40  56  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       39  53  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    35  49  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     33  48  29  58 /   1   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

EC/28/19/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 261616
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1016 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICKING UP AS
MIXING INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...ONLY MINOR CLOUD
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY FOR THE AFTERNOON. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING NIGHT)...AFTER A RATHER CHILLY
START THIS MORNING...BREEZY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR
TODAY ALONG WITH A DRY FRONT WHICH WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS IN
TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SWINGING DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD...THIS PUTS THE SHORTWAVE ON A TRAJECTORY TO PASS NORTH OF
THE CWA ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MUCH LIKE THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
THERE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TO ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. IT WILL ALSO BE
RATHER BREEZY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP THIS AFTERNOON.
BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL MIXING UP TO NEAR 850 MB...SO A FEW
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TONIGHT TO KEEP MOST AREAS
ABOVE FREEZING...BUT HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO
ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY
MORNING FOR EAGER BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPERS. /DL/

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OF US FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE REGION
BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  MOISTURE WILL SUBTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THIS TIME...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOLLOWING SUIT THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW DIVERGE A BIT ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEAK.  BOTH INDICATE A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY.  THE GFS REMAINS THE MORE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENT OF THE TWO IN STALLING THIS FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY WASHING IT OUT BY MID-WEEK.  THE ECMWF NOW STALLS THE
INITIAL FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY.  THEN IT
BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.  BOTH
SOLUTIONS BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE
EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY AT
GLH/GWO/GTR...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. /DL/28/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 261616
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1016 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICKING UP AS
MIXING INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...ONLY MINOR CLOUD
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY FOR THE AFTERNOON. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING NIGHT)...AFTER A RATHER CHILLY
START THIS MORNING...BREEZY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR
TODAY ALONG WITH A DRY FRONT WHICH WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS IN
TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SWINGING DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD...THIS PUTS THE SHORTWAVE ON A TRAJECTORY TO PASS NORTH OF
THE CWA ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MUCH LIKE THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
THERE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TO ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. IT WILL ALSO BE
RATHER BREEZY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP THIS AFTERNOON.
BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL MIXING UP TO NEAR 850 MB...SO A FEW
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TONIGHT TO KEEP MOST AREAS
ABOVE FREEZING...BUT HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO
ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY
MORNING FOR EAGER BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPERS. /DL/

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OF US FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE REGION
BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  MOISTURE WILL SUBTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THIS TIME...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOLLOWING SUIT THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW DIVERGE A BIT ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEAK.  BOTH INDICATE A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY.  THE GFS REMAINS THE MORE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENT OF THE TWO IN STALLING THIS FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY WASHING IT OUT BY MID-WEEK.  THE ECMWF NOW STALLS THE
INITIAL FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY.  THEN IT
BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.  BOTH
SOLUTIONS BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE
EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY AT
GLH/GWO/GTR...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. /DL/28/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 260854
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING NIGHT)...AFTER A RATHER CHILLY
START THIS MORNING...BREEZY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR
TODAY ALONG WITH A DRY FRONT WHICH WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS IN
TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SWINGING DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD...THIS PUTS THE SHORTWAVE ON A TRAJECTORY TO PASS NORTH OF
THE CWA ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MUCH LIKE THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
THERE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TO ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. IT WILL ALSO BE
RATHER BREEZY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP THIS AFTERNOON.
BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL MIXING UP TO NEAR 850 MB...SO A FEW
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TONIGHT TO KEEP MOST AREAS
ABOVE FREEZING...BUT HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO
ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY
MORNING FOR EAGER BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPERS. /DL/

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OF US FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE REGION
BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  MOISTURE WILL SUBTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THIS TIME...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOLLOWING SUIT THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW DIVERGE A BIT ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEAK.  BOTH INDICATE A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY.  THE GFS REMAINS THE MORE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENT OF THE TWO IN STALLING THIS FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY WASHING IT OUT BY MID-WEEK.  THE ECMWF NOW STALLS THE
INITIAL FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY.  THEN IT
BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.  BOTH
SOLUTIONS BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE
EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY AT
GLH/GWO/GTR...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  37  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      63  36  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     67  36  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   66  40  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       67  38  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    65  35  50  33 /   3   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     63  33  50  31 /   5   1   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/19






000
FXUS64 KJAN 260854
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING NIGHT)...AFTER A RATHER CHILLY
START THIS MORNING...BREEZY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR
TODAY ALONG WITH A DRY FRONT WHICH WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS IN
TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SWINGING DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD...THIS PUTS THE SHORTWAVE ON A TRAJECTORY TO PASS NORTH OF
THE CWA ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MUCH LIKE THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
THERE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TO ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. IT WILL ALSO BE
RATHER BREEZY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP THIS AFTERNOON.
BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL MIXING UP TO NEAR 850 MB...SO A FEW
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TONIGHT TO KEEP MOST AREAS
ABOVE FREEZING...BUT HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO
ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY
MORNING FOR EAGER BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPERS. /DL/

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OF US FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE REGION
BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  MOISTURE WILL SUBTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THIS TIME...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOLLOWING SUIT THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW DIVERGE A BIT ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEAK.  BOTH INDICATE A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY.  THE GFS REMAINS THE MORE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENT OF THE TWO IN STALLING THIS FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY WASHING IT OUT BY MID-WEEK.  THE ECMWF NOW STALLS THE
INITIAL FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY.  THEN IT
BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.  BOTH
SOLUTIONS BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE
EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY AT
GLH/GWO/GTR...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  37  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      63  36  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     67  36  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   66  40  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       67  38  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    65  35  50  33 /   3   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     63  33  50  31 /   5   1   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/19





000
FXUS64 KJAN 260830
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING NIGHT)...AFTER A RATHER CHILLY
START THIS MORNING...BREEZY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR
TODAY ALONG WITH A DRY FRONT WHICH WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS IN
TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SWINGING DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD...THIS PUTS THE SHORTWAVE ON A TRAJECTORY TO PASS NORTH OF
THE CWA ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MUCH LIKE THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
THERE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TO ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. IT WILL ALSO BE
RATHER BREEZY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP THIS AFTERNOON.
BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL MIXING UP TO NEAR 850 MB...SO A FEW
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TONIGHT TO KEEP MOST AREAS
ABOVE FREEZING...BUT HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO
ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY
MORNING FOR EAGER BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPERS. /DL/

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OF US FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE REGION
BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  MOISTURE WILL SUBTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THIS TIME...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOLLOWING SUIT THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW DIVERGE A BIT ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEAK.  BOTH INDICATE A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY.  THE GFS REMAINS THE MORE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENT OF THE TWO IN STALLING THIS FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY WASHING IT OUT BY MID-WEEK.  THE ECMWF NOW STALLS THE
INITIAL FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY.  THEN IT
BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.  BOTH
SOLUTIONS BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE
EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY AT
GLH/GWO/GTR...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. /DL/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  37  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      63  36  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     64  36  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   64  40  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       65  38  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    64  35  50  33 /   3   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     63  33  50  31 /   5   1   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/19






000
FXUS64 KJAN 260830
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING NIGHT)...AFTER A RATHER CHILLY
START THIS MORNING...BREEZY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR
TODAY ALONG WITH A DRY FRONT WHICH WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS IN
TIME FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SWINGING DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD...THIS PUTS THE SHORTWAVE ON A TRAJECTORY TO PASS NORTH OF
THE CWA ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MUCH LIKE THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...
THERE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TO ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. IT WILL ALSO BE
RATHER BREEZY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP THIS AFTERNOON.
BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL MIXING UP TO NEAR 850 MB...SO A FEW
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TONIGHT TO KEEP MOST AREAS
ABOVE FREEZING...BUT HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ENOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TO
ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY
MORNING FOR EAGER BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPERS. /DL/

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OF US FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE REGION
BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  MOISTURE WILL SUBTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THIS TIME...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOLLOWING SUIT THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW DIVERGE A BIT ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR EARLY
NEXT WEAK.  BOTH INDICATE A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY.  THE GFS REMAINS THE MORE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENT OF THE TWO IN STALLING THIS FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION AND
EVENTUALLY WASHING IT OUT BY MID-WEEK.  THE ECMWF NOW STALLS THE
INITIAL FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY.  THEN IT
BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.  BOTH
SOLUTIONS BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE
EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY AT
GLH/GWO/GTR...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. /DL/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  37  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      63  36  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     64  36  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   64  40  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       65  38  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    64  35  50  33 /   3   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     63  33  50  31 /   5   1   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/19





000
FXUS64 KJAN 260154 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
755 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING EASTERN
SEABOARD STORM ARE QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION (OR PREPARING TO
EXIT...AS IS THE CASE IN EASTERN MS). DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS AMIDST
A TEMPORARY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE IN THE WAKE OF THE
CLOUDS IS MAKING FOR VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...AND
TEMPS IN THESE AREAS ARE DROPPING QUICKLY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WILL INTRODUCE SOME
MIXING AND MAYBE A FEW CLOUDS (AND THUS HAMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING)
IN WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE THE CASE ELSEWHERE.
DROPPED LOWS ONE TO TWO DEGREES IN MANY WESTERN AREAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES POST-SUNSET ARE LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED AT THIS HOUR.
ELSEWHERE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKING VERY MUCH ON TRACK AND LEFT
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A SHARP TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC LEAF
THIS AFTERNOON ARE PRODUCING A BAND OF THICKER MID CLOUD AND
VIRGA...BUT WE ARE NOT GETTING ANY REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE
GROUND IN THE ARKLAMISS. THE PRIMARY EFFECT HAS BEEN TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER WITH MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOVERING
AROUND 50 F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT WIND
AND FAVORABLE NIGHTTIME COOLING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER A FAST-APPROACHING WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND MIXING FROM WEST TO EAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK CAUSING A DISRUPTION IN COOLING.

EXPECT SIGNIFICANTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY IN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY KEEP
THINGS A LITTLE ON THE UNCOMFORTABLE SIDE. COOLER AIR WILL RETURN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO CHILLY START TO
THANKSGIVING DAY. /EC/

LONG TERM (THANKSGIVING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR
JUST IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF
US ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME MORE QUASI-
ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL SUBTLY
RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME... WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOLLOWING SUIT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONT SINKING SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY
STALL NORTH OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS COULD
BRING SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL EXIT FROM CBM...TO MEI...TO
PIB/HBG CORRIDOR BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS FROM 3 TO 7
KFT ANTICIPATED ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-20 LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. THEREFORE VFR FLIGHT CATS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST
AND BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       32  64  37  54 /   0   2   0   0
MERIDIAN      30  62  36  54 /   6   3   0   0
VICKSBURG     30  66  36  54 /   0   2   0   0
HATTIESBURG   32  64  39  58 /   8   3   0   0
NATCHEZ       33  66  38  56 /   0   1   0   0
GREENVILLE    32  62  34  49 /   0   4   0   0
GREENWOOD     29  62  34  50 /   0   6   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/EC/19







000
FXUS64 KJAN 260154 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
755 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING EASTERN
SEABOARD STORM ARE QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION (OR PREPARING TO
EXIT...AS IS THE CASE IN EASTERN MS). DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS AMIDST
A TEMPORARY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE IN THE WAKE OF THE
CLOUDS IS MAKING FOR VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...AND
TEMPS IN THESE AREAS ARE DROPPING QUICKLY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WILL INTRODUCE SOME
MIXING AND MAYBE A FEW CLOUDS (AND THUS HAMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING)
IN WESTERN AREAS...BUT THAT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE THE CASE ELSEWHERE.
DROPPED LOWS ONE TO TWO DEGREES IN MANY WESTERN AREAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES POST-SUNSET ARE LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED AT THIS HOUR.
ELSEWHERE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKING VERY MUCH ON TRACK AND LEFT
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A SHARP TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC LEAF
THIS AFTERNOON ARE PRODUCING A BAND OF THICKER MID CLOUD AND
VIRGA...BUT WE ARE NOT GETTING ANY REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE
GROUND IN THE ARKLAMISS. THE PRIMARY EFFECT HAS BEEN TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER WITH MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOVERING
AROUND 50 F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT WIND
AND FAVORABLE NIGHTTIME COOLING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER A FAST-APPROACHING WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND MIXING FROM WEST TO EAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK CAUSING A DISRUPTION IN COOLING.

EXPECT SIGNIFICANTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY IN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY KEEP
THINGS A LITTLE ON THE UNCOMFORTABLE SIDE. COOLER AIR WILL RETURN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO CHILLY START TO
THANKSGIVING DAY. /EC/

LONG TERM (THANKSGIVING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR
JUST IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF
US ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME MORE QUASI-
ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL SUBTLY
RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME... WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOLLOWING SUIT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONT SINKING SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY
STALL NORTH OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS COULD
BRING SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL EXIT FROM CBM...TO MEI...TO
PIB/HBG CORRIDOR BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS FROM 3 TO 7
KFT ANTICIPATED ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-20 LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. THEREFORE VFR FLIGHT CATS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST
AND BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       32  64  37  54 /   0   2   0   0
MERIDIAN      30  62  36  54 /   6   3   0   0
VICKSBURG     30  66  36  54 /   0   2   0   0
HATTIESBURG   32  64  39  58 /   8   3   0   0
NATCHEZ       33  66  38  56 /   0   1   0   0
GREENVILLE    32  62  34  49 /   0   4   0   0
GREENWOOD     29  62  34  50 /   0   6   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/EC/19






000
FXUS64 KJAN 252217
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
417 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A SHARP TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC LEAF
THIS AFTERNOON ARE PRODUCING A BAND OF THICKER MID CLOUD AND
VIRGA...BUT WE ARE NOT GETTING ANY REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE
GROUND IN THE ARKLAMISS. THE PRIMARY EFFECT HAS BEEN TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER WITH MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOVERING
AROUND 50 F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT WIND
AND FAVORABLE NIGHTTIME COOLING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER A FAST-APPROACHING WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND MIXING FROM WEST TO EAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK CAUSING A DISRUPTION IN COOLING.

EXPECT SIGNIFICANTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY IN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY KEEP
THINGS A LITTLE ON THE UNCOMFORTABLE SIDE. COOLER AIR WILL RETURN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO CHILLY START TO
THANKSGIVING DAY. /EC/


LONG TERM (THANKSGIVING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR
JUST IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF
US ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME MORE QUASI-
ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL SUBTLY
RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME... WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOLLOWING SUIT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONT SINKING SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY
STALL NORTH OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS COULD
BRING SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       32  64  37  54 /   3   2   0   0
MERIDIAN      30  62  36  54 /  10   3   0   0
VICKSBURG     32  66  36  54 /   1   2   0   0
HATTIESBURG   32  64  39  58 /  12   3   0   0
NATCHEZ       35  66  38  56 /   2   1   0   0
GREENVILLE    33  62  34  49 /   0   4   0   0
GREENWOOD     31  62  34  50 /   1   6   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

EC/28/19/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 252217
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
417 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A SHARP TROUGH CROSSING THE MS VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC LEAF
THIS AFTERNOON ARE PRODUCING A BAND OF THICKER MID CLOUD AND
VIRGA...BUT WE ARE NOT GETTING ANY REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN REACHING THE
GROUND IN THE ARKLAMISS. THE PRIMARY EFFECT HAS BEEN TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER WITH MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOVERING
AROUND 50 F OVER MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT WIND
AND FAVORABLE NIGHTTIME COOLING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER A FAST-APPROACHING WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND MIXING FROM WEST TO EAST
TOWARD DAYBREAK CAUSING A DISRUPTION IN COOLING.

EXPECT SIGNIFICANTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY IN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY KEEP
THINGS A LITTLE ON THE UNCOMFORTABLE SIDE. COOLER AIR WILL RETURN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO CHILLY START TO
THANKSGIVING DAY. /EC/


LONG TERM (THANKSGIVING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR
JUST IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF
US ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME MORE QUASI-
ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL SUBTLY
RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME... WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND FOLLOWING SUIT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK FRONT SINKING SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY
STALL NORTH OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS COULD
BRING SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       32  64  37  54 /   3   2   0   0
MERIDIAN      30  62  36  54 /  10   3   0   0
VICKSBURG     32  66  36  54 /   1   2   0   0
HATTIESBURG   32  64  39  58 /  12   3   0   0
NATCHEZ       35  66  38  56 /   2   1   0   0
GREENVILLE    33  62  34  49 /   0   4   0   0
GREENWOOD     31  62  34  50 /   1   6   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

EC/28/19/







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