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000
FXUS64 KJAN 311450 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
950 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT
THE MOMENT. WAATER VAPOR SHOWING A RATHER WIDESPREAD PLUME OF
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT AREA SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING THE MAJORITY OF IT AOA 500MB WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
KJAN SOUNDING ALSO INDICATING AN ELEVATED INVERSION LAYER AROUND 600
MB. EXPECT THIS AND REST OF MID LEVELS TO CONTINUE WARMING WITH THE
MID LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. THUS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF
ANY CONVECTION TODAY./26/


&&

.AVIATION...THE PATCHY MVFR VSBYS THAT DEVELOPED THIS MORNING HAVE
DISSIPATED AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WL CONT THROUGH TONIGHT. A BRIEF
PERIOD 10-13Z MVFR VSYS WL AGAIN BE PSBL TUE MORNING. /22/



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... LATEST SATELLITE VAPOR
IMAGERY AND EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMP CROSS SECTION SHOWED A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION OF A COLD CORE LOW OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS.THIS LOW
WAS PART OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS WHICH EXTENDED TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WAS OBSERVED OVER THE REGION WITH A 591DKM HIGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP THE CWA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WAS
VERIFIED BY SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS. 925 MB TEMPS WILL BE FROM 25-
26C FOR DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. OVERALL LIGHT FLOW
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS ABOUT THE SAME
EACH DAY WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE 60S EACH AFTERNOON. NIGHTLY
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE NEXT WEAK COLD CORE LOW WILL APPROACH THE CWA BY TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WITH IT DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. PWATS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES AROUND 1.8
INCHES WEST OF THE MS RIVER.  A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE FAR WEST AS THE
SYSTEM NEARS./17/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL
MEANDER ABOUT THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  WHILE A RETURN TO HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE DURING THE PERIOD AS PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES
CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...COUPLED WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
90S EACH AFTERNOON...WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY QUICKLY DISSIPATING AROUND
SUNSET. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       94  72  95  72 /   7   8  11  10
MERIDIAN      93  70  93  72 /   7   8   9  10
VICKSBURG     96  71  96  72 /   4   6  10  10
HATTIESBURG   96  72  95  73 /   3   9  10  10
NATCHEZ       93  71  92  73 /   2   7  11  16
GREENVILLE    94  72  96  73 /   9   6  11  10
GREENWOOD     93  71  94  72 /   5   7   8  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

26/22/17/19




000
FXUS64 KJAN 310822
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
321 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... LATEST SATELLITE VAPOR
IMAGERY AND EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMP CROSS SECTION SHOWED A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION OF A COLD CORE LOW OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS LOW WAS PART OF A
WEAK SHEAR AXIS WHICH EXTENDED TO THE OHIO VALLEY.  SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WAS OBSERVED OVER THE REGION WITH A 591DKM HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP THE CWA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WAS
VERIFIED BY SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS. 925 MB TEMPS WILL BE FROM 25-
26C FOR DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. OVERALL LIGHT FLOW
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS ABOUT THE SAME
EACH DAY WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE 60S EACH AFTERNOON. NIGHTLY
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE NEXT WEAK COLD CORE LOW WILL APPROACH THE CWA BY TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WITH IT DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. PWATS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES AROUND 1.8
INCHES WEST OF THE MS RIVER.  A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE FAR WEST AS THE
SYSTEM NEARS./17/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL
MEANDER ABOUT THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  WHILE A RETURN TO HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE DURING THE PERIOD AS PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES
CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...COUPLED WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
90S EACH AFTERNOON...WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY QUICKLY DISSIPATING AROUND
SUNSET. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MVFR (TO PERHAPS EVEN BRIEFLY IFR)
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10 AND 13 UTC THIS MORNING AROUND
THE EAST TAF SITES OF GTR...MEI AND HBG. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE
LIGHT AND TEND TOWARD BEING A LITTLE VARIABLE./17/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       94  72  95  72 /   7   8  11  10
MERIDIAN      93  70  93  72 /   7   8   9  10
VICKSBURG     96  71  96  72 /   4   6  10  10
HATTIESBURG   96  72  95  73 /   3   9  10  10
NATCHEZ       93  71  92  73 /   2   7  11  16
GREENVILLE    94  72  96  73 /   9   6  11  10
GREENWOOD     93  71  94  72 /   5   7   8  10


&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

/17/19/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 310822
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
321 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... LATEST SATELLITE VAPOR
IMAGERY AND EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMP CROSS SECTION SHOWED A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION OF A COLD CORE LOW OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS LOW WAS PART OF A
WEAK SHEAR AXIS WHICH EXTENDED TO THE OHIO VALLEY.  SHORT WAVE
RIDGING WAS OBSERVED OVER THE REGION WITH A 591DKM HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP THE CWA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WAS
VERIFIED BY SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS. 925 MB TEMPS WILL BE FROM 25-
26C FOR DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. OVERALL LIGHT FLOW
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS ABOUT THE SAME
EACH DAY WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE 60S EACH AFTERNOON. NIGHTLY
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE NEXT WEAK COLD CORE LOW WILL APPROACH THE CWA BY TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WITH IT DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. PWATS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES AROUND 1.8
INCHES WEST OF THE MS RIVER.  A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE FAR WEST AS THE
SYSTEM NEARS./17/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL
MEANDER ABOUT THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  WHILE A RETURN TO HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE DURING THE PERIOD AS PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES
CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW...COUPLED WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
90S EACH AFTERNOON...WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY QUICKLY DISSIPATING AROUND
SUNSET. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MVFR (TO PERHAPS EVEN BRIEFLY IFR)
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10 AND 13 UTC THIS MORNING AROUND
THE EAST TAF SITES OF GTR...MEI AND HBG. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE
LIGHT AND TEND TOWARD BEING A LITTLE VARIABLE./17/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       94  72  95  72 /   7   8  11  10
MERIDIAN      93  70  93  72 /   7   8   9  10
VICKSBURG     96  71  96  72 /   4   6  10  10
HATTIESBURG   96  72  95  73 /   3   9  10  10
NATCHEZ       93  71  92  73 /   2   7  11  16
GREENVILLE    94  72  96  73 /   9   6  11  10
GREENWOOD     93  71  94  72 /   5   7   8  10


&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

/17/19/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 310215
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
915 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL UPDATE THE
ZONES TO REMOVE THE RAIN. WINDS WERE UP IN A FEW LOCATIONS SO
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT FALLING AS QUICKLY. TWEAKED THE HOURLY VALUES
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE RUC SUGGEST THE NORTHEAST
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...BUT NOT CONFIDENT DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN
OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT LOWS...ESPECIALLY WITH A LIGHT
BREEZE. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN...SO EXPECTING ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT.
MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND...WITH
RAIN IN MERIDIAN COULD SEE SOME IN THE MORNING. LOOKING FOR IT TO BE
PATCHY AT BEST...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MVFR (TO PERHAPS EVEN BRIEFLY IFR)
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10 AND 13 UTC MONDAY MORNING AROUND
GWO/GTR/CBM/NMM/MEI/PIB/HBG. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE LIGHT AND TEND
TOWARD BEING A LITTLE VARIABLE. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  94  71  95 /  14  10   9  10
MERIDIAN      67  92  69  92 /  15  10   9   8
VICKSBURG     68  95  70  95 /  12  10   8  10
HATTIESBURG   70  95  71  94 /  12  10   9   9
NATCHEZ       69  92  71  91 /  10  10  10  13
GREENVILLE    70  94  72  95 /  15  10   8  12
GREENWOOD     69  93  70  93 /  15  10  10   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN/JAN/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 310215
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
915 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL UPDATE THE
ZONES TO REMOVE THE RAIN. WINDS WERE UP IN A FEW LOCATIONS SO
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT FALLING AS QUICKLY. TWEAKED THE HOURLY VALUES
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE RUC SUGGEST THE NORTHEAST
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...BUT NOT CONFIDENT DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN
OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT LOWS...ESPECIALLY WITH A LIGHT
BREEZE. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN...SO EXPECTING ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT.
MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND...WITH
RAIN IN MERIDIAN COULD SEE SOME IN THE MORNING. LOOKING FOR IT TO BE
PATCHY AT BEST...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF MVFR (TO PERHAPS EVEN BRIEFLY IFR)
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10 AND 13 UTC MONDAY MORNING AROUND
GWO/GTR/CBM/NMM/MEI/PIB/HBG. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE LIGHT AND TEND
TOWARD BEING A LITTLE VARIABLE. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  94  71  95 /  14  10   9  10
MERIDIAN      67  92  69  92 /  15  10   9   8
VICKSBURG     68  95  70  95 /  12  10   8  10
HATTIESBURG   70  95  71  94 /  12  10   9   9
NATCHEZ       69  92  71  91 /  10  10  10  13
GREENVILLE    70  94  72  95 /  15  10   8  12
GREENWOOD     69  93  70  93 /  15  10  10   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN/JAN/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 301945
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
245 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD CORE LOW OVER
SOUTH AL HAS FINALLY STARTED LIFTING OUT TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON
LEAVING SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE OVER THE CWA. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYTEM OVER THE NE AND EXPECT THEM
TO WIND DOWN QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP THE CWA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS EACH DAY. OVERALL LIGHT FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS ABOUT THE SAME EACH DAY
WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE 60S EACH AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT WEAK COLD CORE LOW WILL APPROACH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WITH IT DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
THE SYSTEM NEARS...BUT BETTER CHANCE LOOK TO MOVE IN FOR
WEDNESDAY./26/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE CONUS FOR THE
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS AND STRONG
SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER THE REGION A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE MEAN
UPPER RIDGE. MEAN MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE GFS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS PUSH TO UP TO 2 PLUS INCH RANGE BY
FRIDAY...EXTENDING FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING LOW
END CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE LATE WEEK. AS WE PUSH INTO FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND CHANCES OF CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASE AS WE
DEVELOP DEEPER MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE GFS OVER THE REGION. GFS
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW BETTER VERTICAL LIFT DURING THIS TIME. THE
EURO MODEL WAS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND. IT
SHOWED SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRYING. SO OPTED TO KEEP LOWER END
POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO
FLATTERN MEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

DAILY HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 91-95 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S AS MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME BACK TO THE REGION./17/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS. FIRST EXCEPTION WL BE MEI-GTR
THIS AFTN/EVNG DUE TO ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SECOND EXCEPTION IS A
BRIEF PERIOD 10Z-12Z MON OF MVFR VSBYS WL BE PSBL ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST. /22/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  94  71  95 /  14  10   9  10
MERIDIAN      67  92  69  92 /  15  10   9   8
VICKSBURG     68  95  70  95 /  12  10   8  10
HATTIESBURG   70  95  71  94 /  12  10   9   9
NATCHEZ       69  92  71  91 /  10  10  10  13
GREENVILLE    70  94  72  95 /  15  10   8  12
GREENWOOD     69  93  70  93 /  15  10  10   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

26/22/17





000
FXUS64 KJAN 301945
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
245 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD CORE LOW OVER
SOUTH AL HAS FINALLY STARTED LIFTING OUT TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON
LEAVING SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE OVER THE CWA. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYTEM OVER THE NE AND EXPECT THEM
TO WIND DOWN QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP THE CWA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS EACH DAY. OVERALL LIGHT FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS ABOUT THE SAME EACH DAY
WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE 60S EACH AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT WEAK COLD CORE LOW WILL APPROACH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WITH IT DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
THE SYSTEM NEARS...BUT BETTER CHANCE LOOK TO MOVE IN FOR
WEDNESDAY./26/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE CONUS FOR THE
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS AND STRONG
SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER THE REGION A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE MEAN
UPPER RIDGE. MEAN MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE GFS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS PUSH TO UP TO 2 PLUS INCH RANGE BY
FRIDAY...EXTENDING FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING LOW
END CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE LATE WEEK. AS WE PUSH INTO FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND CHANCES OF CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASE AS WE
DEVELOP DEEPER MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE GFS OVER THE REGION. GFS
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW BETTER VERTICAL LIFT DURING THIS TIME. THE
EURO MODEL WAS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND. IT
SHOWED SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRYING. SO OPTED TO KEEP LOWER END
POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO
FLATTERN MEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

DAILY HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 91-95 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S AS MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME BACK TO THE REGION./17/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS. FIRST EXCEPTION WL BE MEI-GTR
THIS AFTN/EVNG DUE TO ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SECOND EXCEPTION IS A
BRIEF PERIOD 10Z-12Z MON OF MVFR VSBYS WL BE PSBL ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST. /22/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  94  71  95 /  14  10   9  10
MERIDIAN      67  92  69  92 /  15  10   9   8
VICKSBURG     68  95  70  95 /  12  10   8  10
HATTIESBURG   70  95  71  94 /  12  10   9   9
NATCHEZ       69  92  71  91 /  10  10  10  13
GREENVILLE    70  94  72  95 /  15  10   8  12
GREENWOOD     69  93  70  93 /  15  10  10   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

26/22/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 301945
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
245 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD CORE LOW OVER
SOUTH AL HAS FINALLY STARTED LIFTING OUT TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON
LEAVING SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE OVER THE CWA. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYTEM OVER THE NE AND EXPECT THEM
TO WIND DOWN QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP THE CWA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS EACH DAY. OVERALL LIGHT FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS ABOUT THE SAME EACH DAY
WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE 60S EACH AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT WEAK COLD CORE LOW WILL APPROACH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WITH IT DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
THE SYSTEM NEARS...BUT BETTER CHANCE LOOK TO MOVE IN FOR
WEDNESDAY./26/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE CONUS FOR THE
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS AND STRONG
SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER THE REGION A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE MEAN
UPPER RIDGE. MEAN MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE GFS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS PUSH TO UP TO 2 PLUS INCH RANGE BY
FRIDAY...EXTENDING FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING LOW
END CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE LATE WEEK. AS WE PUSH INTO FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND CHANCES OF CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASE AS WE
DEVELOP DEEPER MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE GFS OVER THE REGION. GFS
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW BETTER VERTICAL LIFT DURING THIS TIME. THE
EURO MODEL WAS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND. IT
SHOWED SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRYING. SO OPTED TO KEEP LOWER END
POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO
FLATTERN MEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

DAILY HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 91-95 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S AS MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME BACK TO THE REGION./17/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS. FIRST EXCEPTION WL BE MEI-GTR
THIS AFTN/EVNG DUE TO ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SECOND EXCEPTION IS A
BRIEF PERIOD 10Z-12Z MON OF MVFR VSBYS WL BE PSBL ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST. /22/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  94  71  95 /  14  10   9  10
MERIDIAN      67  92  69  92 /  15  10   9   8
VICKSBURG     68  95  70  95 /  12  10   8  10
HATTIESBURG   70  95  71  94 /  12  10   9   9
NATCHEZ       69  92  71  91 /  10  10  10  13
GREENVILLE    70  94  72  95 /  15  10   8  12
GREENWOOD     69  93  70  93 /  15  10  10   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

26/22/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 301945
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
245 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD CORE LOW OVER
SOUTH AL HAS FINALLY STARTED LIFTING OUT TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON
LEAVING SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE OVER THE CWA. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYTEM OVER THE NE AND EXPECT THEM
TO WIND DOWN QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP THE CWA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS EACH DAY. OVERALL LIGHT FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS ABOUT THE SAME EACH DAY
WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE 60S EACH AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT WEAK COLD CORE LOW WILL APPROACH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WITH IT DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
THE SYSTEM NEARS...BUT BETTER CHANCE LOOK TO MOVE IN FOR
WEDNESDAY./26/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE CONUS FOR THE
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS AND STRONG
SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER THE REGION A
WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE MEAN
UPPER RIDGE. MEAN MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE GFS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS PUSH TO UP TO 2 PLUS INCH RANGE BY
FRIDAY...EXTENDING FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING LOW
END CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE LATE WEEK. AS WE PUSH INTO FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND CHANCES OF CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASE AS WE
DEVELOP DEEPER MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE GFS OVER THE REGION. GFS
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW BETTER VERTICAL LIFT DURING THIS TIME. THE
EURO MODEL WAS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND. IT
SHOWED SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRYING. SO OPTED TO KEEP LOWER END
POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO
FLATTERN MEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

DAILY HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 91-95 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S AS MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME BACK TO THE REGION./17/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS. FIRST EXCEPTION WL BE MEI-GTR
THIS AFTN/EVNG DUE TO ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPMENT. SECOND EXCEPTION IS A
BRIEF PERIOD 10Z-12Z MON OF MVFR VSBYS WL BE PSBL ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST. /22/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  94  71  95 /  14  10   9  10
MERIDIAN      67  92  69  92 /  15  10   9   8
VICKSBURG     68  95  70  95 /  12  10   8  10
HATTIESBURG   70  95  71  94 /  12  10   9   9
NATCHEZ       69  92  71  91 /  10  10  10  13
GREENVILLE    70  94  72  95 /  15  10   8  12
GREENWOOD     69  93  70  93 /  15  10  10   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

26/22/17





000
FXUS64 KJAN 301432 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
932 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED
AT THE MOMENT. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH AL BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO
THE NE...BUT STILL APPEARS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE HRRR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AT IT DEVELOPS A
GOOD PEPPERING OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON./26/


&&


.AVIATION...THE BRIEF MVFR CIGS THAT DEVELOPED OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI
THIS MORNING HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL
TAF SITES AT 14Z. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING AREAWIDE. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WL BE MEI-GTR THIS AFTN/EVNG
DUE TO ISOLD TO SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT. A BRIEF PERIOD 10Z-12Z MON OF
MVFR VSBYS WL BE PSBL ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. /22/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW IS HELPING
TO TRANSPORT SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER >
1.5 INCHES) AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW AND THIS IS HELPING
TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...ESPECIALLY FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING. INSTABILITY IS POOR AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY INTENSE...BUT SLOW STORM MOTION COULD YIELD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR MOST OF THE AREA...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE.

MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND LIFT OUT AS AN
UPSTREAM WAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OZARK REGION. SUBSIDENCE IN
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES SHOULD MAKE FOR DRIER WEATHER MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE END OF AUGUST WILL BRING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES REACHING THE MID 90S. /EC/

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...

GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN CHANGE OVER
THE CONUS FOR THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CONUS AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
OVER THE REGION A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE
REGION UNDER THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE. MEAN MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE GFS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS PUSH TO UP TO 2 PLUS
INCH RANGE BY FRIDAY...EXTENDING FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL BRING LOW END CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE WORK WEEK AS
MIDLEVEL CAPPING WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT ANY FOCUSED LIFT.
AS WE PUSH INTO FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND CHANCES OF CONVECTION
SLOWLY INCREASE WE DEVELOP DEEPER MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE GFS OVER
THE REGION. GFS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS BETTER VERTICAL LIFT
DURING THE TIME. THE EURO MODEL WAS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE MOISTURE
OVER THE WEEKEND. IT SHOWED SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRYING. SO OPTED
TO KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
WILL HELP TO FLATTERN MEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DAILY HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 91-95 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S AS MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME BACK TO THE REGION. WITH THIS
IN MIND MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON NEW
MODEL GUIDANCE./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  68  92  69 /  12   7   7   4
MERIDIAN      88  65  91  67 /  29   7   5   5
VICKSBURG     94  66  94  67 /   4   7   6   5
HATTIESBURG   93  68  94  70 /   9   6   6   3
NATCHEZ       90  68  90  69 /   4   7  10   5
GREENVILLE    93  69  93  70 /   8   9   5   5
GREENWOOD     92  67  92  68 /  20   8   5   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

26/22/EC/17





000
FXUS64 KJAN 301432 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
932 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED
AT THE MOMENT. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH AL BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO
THE NE...BUT STILL APPEARS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE HRRR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AT IT DEVELOPS A
GOOD PEPPERING OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON./26/


&&


.AVIATION...THE BRIEF MVFR CIGS THAT DEVELOPED OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI
THIS MORNING HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL
TAF SITES AT 14Z. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING AREAWIDE. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WL BE MEI-GTR THIS AFTN/EVNG
DUE TO ISOLD TO SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT. A BRIEF PERIOD 10Z-12Z MON OF
MVFR VSBYS WL BE PSBL ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. /22/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW IS HELPING
TO TRANSPORT SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER >
1.5 INCHES) AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW AND THIS IS HELPING
TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...ESPECIALLY FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING. INSTABILITY IS POOR AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY INTENSE...BUT SLOW STORM MOTION COULD YIELD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR MOST OF THE AREA...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE.

MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND LIFT OUT AS AN
UPSTREAM WAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OZARK REGION. SUBSIDENCE IN
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES SHOULD MAKE FOR DRIER WEATHER MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE END OF AUGUST WILL BRING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES REACHING THE MID 90S. /EC/

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...

GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN CHANGE OVER
THE CONUS FOR THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CONUS AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
OVER THE REGION A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE
REGION UNDER THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE. MEAN MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE GFS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS PUSH TO UP TO 2 PLUS
INCH RANGE BY FRIDAY...EXTENDING FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL BRING LOW END CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE WORK WEEK AS
MIDLEVEL CAPPING WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT ANY FOCUSED LIFT.
AS WE PUSH INTO FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND CHANCES OF CONVECTION
SLOWLY INCREASE WE DEVELOP DEEPER MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE GFS OVER
THE REGION. GFS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS BETTER VERTICAL LIFT
DURING THE TIME. THE EURO MODEL WAS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE MOISTURE
OVER THE WEEKEND. IT SHOWED SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRYING. SO OPTED
TO KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
WILL HELP TO FLATTERN MEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DAILY HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 91-95 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S AS MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME BACK TO THE REGION. WITH THIS
IN MIND MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON NEW
MODEL GUIDANCE./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  68  92  69 /  12   7   7   4
MERIDIAN      88  65  91  67 /  29   7   5   5
VICKSBURG     94  66  94  67 /   4   7   6   5
HATTIESBURG   93  68  94  70 /   9   6   6   3
NATCHEZ       90  68  90  69 /   4   7  10   5
GREENVILLE    93  69  93  70 /   8   9   5   5
GREENWOOD     92  67  92  68 /  20   8   5   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

26/22/EC/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 301432 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
932 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED
AT THE MOMENT. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH AL BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO
THE NE...BUT STILL APPEARS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE HRRR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AT IT DEVELOPS A
GOOD PEPPERING OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON./26/


&&


.AVIATION...THE BRIEF MVFR CIGS THAT DEVELOPED OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI
THIS MORNING HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT ALL
TAF SITES AT 14Z. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING AREAWIDE. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WL BE MEI-GTR THIS AFTN/EVNG
DUE TO ISOLD TO SCT TSRA DEVELOPMENT. A BRIEF PERIOD 10Z-12Z MON OF
MVFR VSBYS WL BE PSBL ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. /22/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW IS HELPING
TO TRANSPORT SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER >
1.5 INCHES) AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW AND THIS IS HELPING
TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...ESPECIALLY FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING. INSTABILITY IS POOR AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY INTENSE...BUT SLOW STORM MOTION COULD YIELD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR MOST OF THE AREA...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE.

MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND LIFT OUT AS AN
UPSTREAM WAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OZARK REGION. SUBSIDENCE IN
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES SHOULD MAKE FOR DRIER WEATHER MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE END OF AUGUST WILL BRING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES REACHING THE MID 90S. /EC/

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...

GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN CHANGE OVER
THE CONUS FOR THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CONUS AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
OVER THE REGION A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE
REGION UNDER THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE. MEAN MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE GFS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS PUSH TO UP TO 2 PLUS
INCH RANGE BY FRIDAY...EXTENDING FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL BRING LOW END CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE WORK WEEK AS
MIDLEVEL CAPPING WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT ANY FOCUSED LIFT.
AS WE PUSH INTO FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND CHANCES OF CONVECTION
SLOWLY INCREASE WE DEVELOP DEEPER MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE GFS OVER
THE REGION. GFS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS BETTER VERTICAL LIFT
DURING THE TIME. THE EURO MODEL WAS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE MOISTURE
OVER THE WEEKEND. IT SHOWED SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRYING. SO OPTED
TO KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
WILL HELP TO FLATTERN MEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DAILY HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 91-95 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S AS MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME BACK TO THE REGION. WITH THIS
IN MIND MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON NEW
MODEL GUIDANCE./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  68  92  69 /  12   7   7   4
MERIDIAN      88  65  91  67 /  29   7   5   5
VICKSBURG     94  66  94  67 /   4   7   6   5
HATTIESBURG   93  68  94  70 /   9   6   6   3
NATCHEZ       90  68  90  69 /   4   7  10   5
GREENVILLE    93  69  93  70 /   8   9   5   5
GREENWOOD     92  67  92  68 /  20   8   5   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

26/22/EC/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 300912
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
412 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW IS HELPING
TO TRANSPORT SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER >
1.5 INCHES) AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW AND THIS IS HELPING
TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...ESPECIALLY FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING. INSTABILITY IS POOR AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY INTENSE...BUT SLOW STORM MOTION COULD YIELD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR MOST OF THE AREA...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE.

MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND LIFT OUT AS AN
UPSTREAM WAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OZARK REGION. SUBSIDENCE IN
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES SHOULD MAKE FOR DRIER WEATHER MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE END OF AUGUST WILL BRING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES REACHING THE MID 90S. /EC/

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...

GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN CHANGE OVER
THE CONUS FOR THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CONUS AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
OVER THE REGION A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE
REGION UNDER THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE. MEAN MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE GFS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS PUSH TO UP TO 2 PLUS
INCH RANGE BY FRIDAY...EXTENDING FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL BRING LOW END CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE WORK WEEK AS
MIDLEVEL CAPPING WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT ANY FOCUSED LIFT.
AS WE PUSH INTO FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND CHANCES OF CONVECTION
SLOWLY INCREASE WE DEVELOP DEEPER MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE GFS OVER
THE REGION. GFS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS BETTER VERTICAL LIFT
DURING THE TIME. THE EURO MODEL WAS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE MOISTURE
OVER THE WEEKEND. IT SHOWED SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRYING. SO OPTED
TO KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
WILL HELP TO FLATTERN MEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DAILY HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 91-95 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S AS MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME BACK TO THE REGION. WITH THIS
IN MIND MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON NEW
MODEL GUIDANCE./17/

&&

.AVIATION...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  68  92  69 /  12   7   7   4
MERIDIAN      88  65  91  67 /  29   7   5   5
VICKSBURG     94  66  94  67 /   4   7   6   5
HATTIESBURG   93  68  94  70 /   9   6   6   3
NATCHEZ       90  68  90  69 /   4   7  10   5
GREENVILLE    93  69  93  70 /   8   9   5   5
GREENWOOD     92  67  92  68 /  20   8   5   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

/EC/17/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 300912
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
412 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW IS HELPING
TO TRANSPORT SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER >
1.5 INCHES) AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW AND THIS IS HELPING
TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...ESPECIALLY FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING. INSTABILITY IS POOR AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY INTENSE...BUT SLOW STORM MOTION COULD YIELD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR MOST OF THE AREA...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE.

MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND LIFT OUT AS AN
UPSTREAM WAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OZARK REGION. SUBSIDENCE IN
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES SHOULD MAKE FOR DRIER WEATHER MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE END OF AUGUST WILL BRING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES REACHING THE MID 90S. /EC/

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...

GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN CHANGE OVER
THE CONUS FOR THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CONUS AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
OVER THE REGION A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE
REGION UNDER THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE. MEAN MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE GFS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS PUSH TO UP TO 2 PLUS
INCH RANGE BY FRIDAY...EXTENDING FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL BRING LOW END CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE WORK WEEK AS
MIDLEVEL CAPPING WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT ANY FOCUSED LIFT.
AS WE PUSH INTO FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND CHANCES OF CONVECTION
SLOWLY INCREASE WE DEVELOP DEEPER MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE GFS OVER
THE REGION. GFS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS BETTER VERTICAL LIFT
DURING THE TIME. THE EURO MODEL WAS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE MOISTURE
OVER THE WEEKEND. IT SHOWED SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRYING. SO OPTED
TO KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
WILL HELP TO FLATTERN MEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DAILY HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 91-95 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S AS MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME BACK TO THE REGION. WITH THIS
IN MIND MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON NEW
MODEL GUIDANCE./17/

&&

.AVIATION...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  68  92  69 /  12   7   7   4
MERIDIAN      88  65  91  67 /  29   7   5   5
VICKSBURG     94  66  94  67 /   4   7   6   5
HATTIESBURG   93  68  94  70 /   9   6   6   3
NATCHEZ       90  68  90  69 /   4   7  10   5
GREENVILLE    93  69  93  70 /   8   9   5   5
GREENWOOD     92  67  92  68 /  20   8   5   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

/EC/17/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 300912
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
412 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW IS HELPING
TO TRANSPORT SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER >
1.5 INCHES) AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW AND THIS IS HELPING
TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...ESPECIALLY FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING. INSTABILITY IS POOR AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY INTENSE...BUT SLOW STORM MOTION COULD YIELD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR MOST OF THE AREA...DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE.

MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND LIFT OUT AS AN
UPSTREAM WAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OZARK REGION. SUBSIDENCE IN
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES SHOULD MAKE FOR DRIER WEATHER MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE END OF AUGUST WILL BRING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES REACHING THE MID 90S. /EC/

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...

GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN CHANGE OVER
THE CONUS FOR THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CONUS AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
OVER THE REGION A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE
REGION UNDER THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE. MEAN MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE GFS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS PUSH TO UP TO 2 PLUS
INCH RANGE BY FRIDAY...EXTENDING FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL BRING LOW END CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE WORK WEEK AS
MIDLEVEL CAPPING WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT ANY FOCUSED LIFT.
AS WE PUSH INTO FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND CHANCES OF CONVECTION
SLOWLY INCREASE WE DEVELOP DEEPER MOISTURE ACCORDING TO THE GFS OVER
THE REGION. GFS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS BETTER VERTICAL LIFT
DURING THE TIME. THE EURO MODEL WAS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE MOISTURE
OVER THE WEEKEND. IT SHOWED SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRYING. SO OPTED
TO KEEP LOWER END POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
WILL HELP TO FLATTERN MEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DAILY HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 91-95 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S AS MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME BACK TO THE REGION. WITH THIS
IN MIND MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON NEW
MODEL GUIDANCE./17/

&&

.AVIATION...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  68  92  69 /  12   7   7   4
MERIDIAN      88  65  91  67 /  29   7   5   5
VICKSBURG     94  66  94  67 /   4   7   6   5
HATTIESBURG   93  68  94  70 /   9   6   6   3
NATCHEZ       90  68  90  69 /   4   7  10   5
GREENVILLE    93  69  93  70 /   8   9   5   5
GREENWOOD     92  67  92  68 /  20   8   5   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

/EC/17/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 300128
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
828 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE GULF COAST ONLY
MANAGED TO GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
PEAK HEATING. THOSE STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
ANY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AT KMEI
AND KGTR. /SW/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWA, WHICH IS CLOSEST TO A THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MIDDLE
TN THROUGH NE FL. A MID/UPPER LOW, WHICH WAS ALSO AIDING DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS, CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. HEADING THROUGH SUNDAY, THIS
FEATURE WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO A NEW UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE BEST MID LEVEL VORTICITY AND
BETTER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY, THOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEASTERN
ZONES WHERE SOMEWHAT GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL EXIST. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSIT THE AREA MONDAY WITH THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE REMAINING JUST TO THE WEST. THIS WILL LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ERIKA DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROUGH THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS ARE
CURRENTLY DRIFTING WNW ACROSS CUBA AND ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
SYSTEM TO REGAIN STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE, MID/UPPER TROUGHING
WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SYSTEM EAST OF OUR AREA.

RELEVANT PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FOLLOW... /DL/

GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWS A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE CONUS
FOR THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS AND
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER THE REGION A WEAK
CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE MEAN UPPER
RIDGE. MEAN MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS
PUSH TO THE 1.8 TO 2 INCH RANGE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW END
CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE WORK WEEK AS MIDLEVEL CAPPING WILL
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT ANY FOCUSED LIFT. AS WE PUSH TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD CHANCES OF CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASE. DAILY HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE IN THE 90-94 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S AS MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME BACK TO THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND MADE
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON NEW MODEL GUIDANCE.
/17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  93  68  93 /   4   6   7   9
MERIDIAN      67  88  65  92 /  10  10   7   8
VICKSBURG     66  91  67  94 /   3   4   7   9
HATTIESBURG   68  92  68  94 /   9   6   6   9
NATCHEZ       67  88  68  91 /   4   5   7  11
GREENVILLE    68  91  69  93 /   4   9   9   9
GREENWOOD     68  90  67  93 /   4  14   8   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 300128
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
828 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE GULF COAST ONLY
MANAGED TO GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
PEAK HEATING. THOSE STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
ANY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AT KMEI
AND KGTR. /SW/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWA, WHICH IS CLOSEST TO A THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MIDDLE
TN THROUGH NE FL. A MID/UPPER LOW, WHICH WAS ALSO AIDING DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS, CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. HEADING THROUGH SUNDAY, THIS
FEATURE WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO A NEW UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE BEST MID LEVEL VORTICITY AND
BETTER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY, THOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEASTERN
ZONES WHERE SOMEWHAT GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL EXIST. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSIT THE AREA MONDAY WITH THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE REMAINING JUST TO THE WEST. THIS WILL LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ERIKA DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROUGH THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS ARE
CURRENTLY DRIFTING WNW ACROSS CUBA AND ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
SYSTEM TO REGAIN STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE, MID/UPPER TROUGHING
WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SYSTEM EAST OF OUR AREA.

RELEVANT PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FOLLOW... /DL/

GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWS A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE CONUS
FOR THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS AND
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER THE REGION A WEAK
CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE MEAN UPPER
RIDGE. MEAN MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS
PUSH TO THE 1.8 TO 2 INCH RANGE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW END
CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE WORK WEEK AS MIDLEVEL CAPPING WILL
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT ANY FOCUSED LIFT. AS WE PUSH TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD CHANCES OF CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASE. DAILY HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE IN THE 90-94 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S AS MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME BACK TO THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND MADE
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON NEW MODEL GUIDANCE.
/17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  93  68  93 /   4   6   7   9
MERIDIAN      67  88  65  92 /  10  10   7   8
VICKSBURG     66  91  67  94 /   3   4   7   9
HATTIESBURG   68  92  68  94 /   9   6   6   9
NATCHEZ       67  88  68  91 /   4   5   7  11
GREENVILLE    68  91  69  93 /   4   9   9   9
GREENWOOD     68  90  67  93 /   4  14   8   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 292049
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWA, WHICH IS CLOSEST TO A THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MIDDLE
TN THROUGH NE FL. A MID/UPPER LOW, WHICH WAS ALSO AIDING DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS, CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. HEADING THROUGH SUNDAY, THIS
FEATURE WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO A NEW UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE BEST MID LEVEL VORTICITY AND
BETTER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY, THOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEASTERN
ZONES WHERE SOMEWHAT GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL EXIST. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSIT THE AREA MONDAY WITH THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE REMAINING JUST TO THE WEST. THIS WILL LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ERIKA DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROUGH THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS ARE
CURRENTLY DRIFTING WNW ACROSS CUBA AND ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
SYSTEM TO REGAIN STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE, MID/UPPER TROUGHING
WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SYSTEM EAST OF OUR AREA.

RELEVANT PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FOLLOW... /DL/

GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWS A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE CONUS
FOR THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS AND
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER THE REGION A WEAK
CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE MEAN UPPER
RIDGE. MEAN MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS
PUSH TO THE 1.8 TO 2 INCH RANGE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW END
CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE WORK WEEK AS MIDLEVEL CAPPING WILL
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT ANY FOCUSED LIFT. AS WE PUSH TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD CHANCES OF CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASE. DAILY HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE IN THE 90-94 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S AS MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME BACK TO THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND MADE
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON NEW MODEL GUIDANCE.
/17/

&&

.AVIATION...AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT
GWO/GTR/MEI/HBG THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG BUT IS NOT EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE EAST WHERE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WL BE PSBL 09-13Z SUNDAY MORNING. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  93  68  93 /   6   6   7   9
MERIDIAN      67  88  65  92 /  16  10   7   8
VICKSBURG     66  91  67  94 /   3   4   7   9
HATTIESBURG   68  92  68  94 /   9   6   6   9
NATCHEZ       67  88  68  91 /   4   5   7  11
GREENVILLE    68  91  69  93 /   6   9   9   9
GREENWOOD     68  90  67  93 /  10  14   8   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/22/17





000
FXUS64 KJAN 292049
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWA, WHICH IS CLOSEST TO A THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MIDDLE
TN THROUGH NE FL. A MID/UPPER LOW, WHICH WAS ALSO AIDING DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS, CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. HEADING THROUGH SUNDAY, THIS
FEATURE WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO A NEW UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE BEST MID LEVEL VORTICITY AND
BETTER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY, THOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEASTERN
ZONES WHERE SOMEWHAT GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL EXIST. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSIT THE AREA MONDAY WITH THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE REMAINING JUST TO THE WEST. THIS WILL LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ERIKA DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROUGH THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS ARE
CURRENTLY DRIFTING WNW ACROSS CUBA AND ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
SYSTEM TO REGAIN STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE, MID/UPPER TROUGHING
WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SYSTEM EAST OF OUR AREA.

RELEVANT PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FOLLOW... /DL/

GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWS A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE CONUS
FOR THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS AND
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER THE REGION A WEAK
CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE MEAN UPPER
RIDGE. MEAN MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS
PUSH TO THE 1.8 TO 2 INCH RANGE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW END
CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE WORK WEEK AS MIDLEVEL CAPPING WILL
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT ANY FOCUSED LIFT. AS WE PUSH TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD CHANCES OF CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASE. DAILY HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE IN THE 90-94 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S AS MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME BACK TO THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND MADE
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON NEW MODEL GUIDANCE.
/17/

&&

.AVIATION...AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT
GWO/GTR/MEI/HBG THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG BUT IS NOT EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE EAST WHERE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WL BE PSBL 09-13Z SUNDAY MORNING. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  93  68  93 /   6   6   7   9
MERIDIAN      67  88  65  92 /  16  10   7   8
VICKSBURG     66  91  67  94 /   3   4   7   9
HATTIESBURG   68  92  68  94 /   9   6   6   9
NATCHEZ       67  88  68  91 /   4   5   7  11
GREENVILLE    68  91  69  93 /   6   9   9   9
GREENWOOD     68  90  67  93 /  10  14   8   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/22/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 292049
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWA, WHICH IS CLOSEST TO A THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MIDDLE
TN THROUGH NE FL. A MID/UPPER LOW, WHICH WAS ALSO AIDING DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS, CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. HEADING THROUGH SUNDAY, THIS
FEATURE WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO A NEW UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE BEST MID LEVEL VORTICITY AND
BETTER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY, THOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEASTERN
ZONES WHERE SOMEWHAT GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL EXIST. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSIT THE AREA MONDAY WITH THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE REMAINING JUST TO THE WEST. THIS WILL LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ERIKA DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROUGH THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS ARE
CURRENTLY DRIFTING WNW ACROSS CUBA AND ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
SYSTEM TO REGAIN STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE, MID/UPPER TROUGHING
WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SYSTEM EAST OF OUR AREA.

RELEVANT PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FOLLOW... /DL/

GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWS A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE CONUS
FOR THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS AND
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER THE REGION A WEAK
CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE MEAN UPPER
RIDGE. MEAN MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS
PUSH TO THE 1.8 TO 2 INCH RANGE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW END
CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE WORK WEEK AS MIDLEVEL CAPPING WILL
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT ANY FOCUSED LIFT. AS WE PUSH TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD CHANCES OF CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASE. DAILY HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE IN THE 90-94 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S AS MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME BACK TO THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND MADE
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON NEW MODEL GUIDANCE.
/17/

&&

.AVIATION...AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT
GWO/GTR/MEI/HBG THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG BUT IS NOT EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE EAST WHERE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WL BE PSBL 09-13Z SUNDAY MORNING. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  93  68  93 /   6   6   7   9
MERIDIAN      67  88  65  92 /  16  10   7   8
VICKSBURG     66  91  67  94 /   3   4   7   9
HATTIESBURG   68  92  68  94 /   9   6   6   9
NATCHEZ       67  88  68  91 /   4   5   7  11
GREENVILLE    68  91  69  93 /   6   9   9   9
GREENWOOD     68  90  67  93 /  10  14   8   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/22/17





000
FXUS64 KJAN 292049
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE CWA, WHICH IS CLOSEST TO A THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MIDDLE
TN THROUGH NE FL. A MID/UPPER LOW, WHICH WAS ALSO AIDING DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS, CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. HEADING THROUGH SUNDAY, THIS
FEATURE WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO A NEW UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE BEST MID LEVEL VORTICITY AND
BETTER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY, THOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEASTERN
ZONES WHERE SOMEWHAT GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL EXIST. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSIT THE AREA MONDAY WITH THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE REMAINING JUST TO THE WEST. THIS WILL LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ERIKA DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROUGH THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS ARE
CURRENTLY DRIFTING WNW ACROSS CUBA AND ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
SYSTEM TO REGAIN STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE, MID/UPPER TROUGHING
WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SYSTEM EAST OF OUR AREA.

RELEVANT PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FOLLOW... /DL/

GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWS A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE CONUS
FOR THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS AND
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER THE REGION A WEAK
CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE MEAN UPPER
RIDGE. MEAN MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS
PUSH TO THE 1.8 TO 2 INCH RANGE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW END
CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE WORK WEEK AS MIDLEVEL CAPPING WILL
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT ANY FOCUSED LIFT. AS WE PUSH TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD CHANCES OF CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASE. DAILY HIGHS
WILL AVERAGE IN THE 90-94 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S AS MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME BACK TO THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND MADE
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON NEW MODEL GUIDANCE.
/17/

&&

.AVIATION...AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT
GWO/GTR/MEI/HBG THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVNG BUT IS NOT EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE EAST WHERE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WL BE PSBL 09-13Z SUNDAY MORNING. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  93  68  93 /   6   6   7   9
MERIDIAN      67  88  65  92 /  16  10   7   8
VICKSBURG     66  91  67  94 /   3   4   7   9
HATTIESBURG   68  92  68  94 /   9   6   6   9
NATCHEZ       67  88  68  91 /   4   5   7  11
GREENVILLE    68  91  69  93 /   6   9   9   9
GREENWOOD     68  90  67  93 /  10  14   8   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/22/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 291447 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
947 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...THE INHERITED FORECAST IS ON TRACK, AND NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. VORTICITY WITH THIS FEATURE
AND A POOL OF GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER EAST MS THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER WEST, DRIER AIR EXISTS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...GTR WAS STILL REPORTING A CIG OF 1000FT AT 14Z. THIS CIG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVNG. OTHERWISE...AN AFTN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD
BRIEFLY IMPACT GTR/MEI...WITH LESSER CHANCES AT GWO/JAN/HKS/HBG.
/EC/22/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION. MODELS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST THIS LOW TO BE
ABSORBED BY A NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES CURRENTLY DIGGING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. AS THIS
HAPPENS...DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
DRAWN WESTWARD AND WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING HEAT/INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER EASTERN MS. LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE OVERLY STEEP...BUT DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WHILE SEEING A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND. /EC/

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWS A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE CONUS
FOR THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS AND
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER THE REGION A WEAK
CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE MEAN UPPER
RIDGE. MEAN MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS
PUSH TO THE 1.8 TO 2 INCH RANGE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW END
CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE WORK WEEK AS MIDLEVEL CAPPING WILL
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT ANY FOCUSED LIFT. ALSO TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA MAY DRY SLOT US SOME AS THE REMNANT OF IT PUSHES NORTH WELL
EAST OF THE REGION. SPEAKING OF ERIKA NHC GUIDANCE AND TROPICAL
MODELS KEEPS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS. NHC
GUIDANCE PUSHES THE SYSTEM ACROSS CUBA THEN OFF THE WEST FLORIDA
COAST BEFORE PUSHING IT INLAND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON
WEDNESDAY. AS WE PUSH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASE. DAILY HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 90-94
RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S AS MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME
BACK TO THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON NEW MODEL GUIDANCE. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  67  91  68 /   4   8   4  10
MERIDIAN      88  67  90  66 /  27  16   8  10
VICKSBURG     93  65  93  67 /   3   5   4   9
HATTIESBURG   91  68  92  69 /  15   9   7   9
NATCHEZ       90  67  89  68 /   4   5   7  10
GREENVILLE    93  68  92  69 /   3   9  12  12
GREENWOOD     91  68  91  68 /  11  16  14  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

DL/22/EC/17





000
FXUS64 KJAN 291447 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
947 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...THE INHERITED FORECAST IS ON TRACK, AND NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. VORTICITY WITH THIS FEATURE
AND A POOL OF GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER EAST MS THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER WEST, DRIER AIR EXISTS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...GTR WAS STILL REPORTING A CIG OF 1000FT AT 14Z. THIS CIG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVNG. OTHERWISE...AN AFTN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD
BRIEFLY IMPACT GTR/MEI...WITH LESSER CHANCES AT GWO/JAN/HKS/HBG.
/EC/22/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION. MODELS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST THIS LOW TO BE
ABSORBED BY A NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES CURRENTLY DIGGING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. AS THIS
HAPPENS...DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
DRAWN WESTWARD AND WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING HEAT/INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER EASTERN MS. LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE OVERLY STEEP...BUT DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WHILE SEEING A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND. /EC/

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWS A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE CONUS
FOR THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS AND
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER THE REGION A WEAK
CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE MEAN UPPER
RIDGE. MEAN MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS
PUSH TO THE 1.8 TO 2 INCH RANGE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW END
CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE WORK WEEK AS MIDLEVEL CAPPING WILL
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT ANY FOCUSED LIFT. ALSO TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA MAY DRY SLOT US SOME AS THE REMNANT OF IT PUSHES NORTH WELL
EAST OF THE REGION. SPEAKING OF ERIKA NHC GUIDANCE AND TROPICAL
MODELS KEEPS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS. NHC
GUIDANCE PUSHES THE SYSTEM ACROSS CUBA THEN OFF THE WEST FLORIDA
COAST BEFORE PUSHING IT INLAND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON
WEDNESDAY. AS WE PUSH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASE. DAILY HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 90-94
RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S AS MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME
BACK TO THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON NEW MODEL GUIDANCE. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  67  91  68 /   4   8   4  10
MERIDIAN      88  67  90  66 /  27  16   8  10
VICKSBURG     93  65  93  67 /   3   5   4   9
HATTIESBURG   91  68  92  69 /  15   9   7   9
NATCHEZ       90  67  89  68 /   4   5   7  10
GREENVILLE    93  68  92  69 /   3   9  12  12
GREENWOOD     91  68  91  68 /  11  16  14  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

DL/22/EC/17




000
FXUS64 KJAN 290912
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
412 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION. MODELS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST THIS LOW TO BE
ABSORBED BY A NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES CURRENTLY DIGGING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. AS THIS
HAPPENS...DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
DRAWN WESTWARD AND WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING HEAT/INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER EASTERN MS. LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE OVERLY STEEP...BUT DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WHILE SEEING A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND. /EC/

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWS A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE CONUS
FOR THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS AND
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER THE REGION A WEAK
CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE MEAN UPPER
RIDGE. MEAN MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS
PUSH TO THE 1.8 TO 2 INCH RANGE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW END
CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE WORK WEEK AS MIDLEVEL CAPPING WILL
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT ANY FOCUSED LIFT. ALSO TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA MAY DRY SLOT US SOME AS THE REMNANT OF IT PUSHES NORTH WELL
EAST OF THE REGION. SPEAKING OF ERIKA NHC GUIDANCE AND TROPICAL
MODELS KEEPS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS. NHC
GUIDANCE PUSHES THE SYSTEM ACROSS CUBA THEN OFF THE WEST FLORIDA
COAST BEFORE PUSHING IT INLAND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON
WEDNESDAY. AS WE PUSH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASE. DAILY HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 90-94
RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S AS MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME
BACK TO THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON NEW MODEL GUIDANCE. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...ASIDE FROM PATCHY AREAS OF EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR
FOG...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AFTERNOON ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT GTR/MEI...WITH LESSER CHANCES AT
GWO/JAN/HKS/HBG. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  67  91  68 /   4   8   4  10
MERIDIAN      88  67  90  66 /  27  16   8  10
VICKSBURG     93  65  93  67 /   3   5   4   9
HATTIESBURG   91  68  92  69 /  15   9   7   9
NATCHEZ       90  67  89  68 /   4   5   7  10
GREENVILLE    93  68  92  69 /   3   9  12  12
GREENWOOD     91  68  91  68 /  11  16  14  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

/EC/17/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 290912
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
412 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION. MODELS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST THIS LOW TO BE
ABSORBED BY A NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES CURRENTLY DIGGING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. AS THIS
HAPPENS...DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
DRAWN WESTWARD AND WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING HEAT/INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER EASTERN MS. LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE OVERLY STEEP...BUT DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WHILE SEEING A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND. /EC/

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWS A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE CONUS
FOR THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS AND
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER THE REGION A WEAK
CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE MEAN UPPER
RIDGE. MEAN MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS
PUSH TO THE 1.8 TO 2 INCH RANGE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW END
CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE WORK WEEK AS MIDLEVEL CAPPING WILL
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT ANY FOCUSED LIFT. ALSO TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA MAY DRY SLOT US SOME AS THE REMNANT OF IT PUSHES NORTH WELL
EAST OF THE REGION. SPEAKING OF ERIKA NHC GUIDANCE AND TROPICAL
MODELS KEEPS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS. NHC
GUIDANCE PUSHES THE SYSTEM ACROSS CUBA THEN OFF THE WEST FLORIDA
COAST BEFORE PUSHING IT INLAND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON
WEDNESDAY. AS WE PUSH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD CHANCES OF
CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASE. DAILY HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 90-94
RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S AS MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME
BACK TO THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON NEW MODEL GUIDANCE. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...ASIDE FROM PATCHY AREAS OF EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR
FOG...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AFTERNOON ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT GTR/MEI...WITH LESSER CHANCES AT
GWO/JAN/HKS/HBG. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  67  91  68 /   4   8   4  10
MERIDIAN      88  67  90  66 /  27  16   8  10
VICKSBURG     93  65  93  67 /   3   5   4   9
HATTIESBURG   91  68  92  69 /  15   9   7   9
NATCHEZ       90  67  89  68 /   4   5   7  10
GREENVILLE    93  68  92  69 /   3   9  12  12
GREENWOOD     91  68  91  68 /  11  16  14  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

/EC/17/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 290246 CCA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 924 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS GOOD. WILL TWEAK THE
HOURLY VALUES AND LEAVE EVERYTHING ELSE THE SAME. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW TROUGH/BOUNDARY APPROACHING...BUT LOOKS LIKE WARM
AIR...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS RETURNING IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...BUT NOTHING
DENSE OR WIDE SPREAD...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR VSBYS IN FOG CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 29/06 AND
29/14Z AT GWO/GTR/MEI AND HBG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  91  68  92 /   0   8   8   9
MERIDIAN      67  88  66  90 /   5  19  15  14
VICKSBURG     62  92  65  92 /   0   4   4   8
HATTIESBURG   67  89  68  91 /   3  13  13  12
NATCHEZ       63  90  67  89 /   0   3   4  10
GREENVILLE    64  92  68  92 /   0   4   5  10
GREENWOOD     66  90  67  91 /   0   8   9  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7/26





000
FXUS64 KJAN 290246 CCA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 924 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS GOOD. WILL TWEAK THE
HOURLY VALUES AND LEAVE EVERYTHING ELSE THE SAME. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW TROUGH/BOUNDARY APPROACHING...BUT LOOKS LIKE WARM
AIR...MOISTURE AND CLOUDS RETURNING IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...BUT NOTHING
DENSE OR WIDE SPREAD...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR VSBYS IN FOG CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 29/06 AND
29/14Z AT GWO/GTR/MEI AND HBG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  91  68  92 /   0   8   8   9
MERIDIAN      67  88  66  90 /   5  19  15  14
VICKSBURG     62  92  65  92 /   0   4   4   8
HATTIESBURG   67  89  68  91 /   3  13  13  12
NATCHEZ       63  90  67  89 /   0   3   4  10
GREENVILLE    64  92  68  92 /   0   4   5  10
GREENWOOD     66  90  67  91 /   0   8   9  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7/26





000
FXUS64 KJAN 290224
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
924 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FOR TONIGHT WAS GOOD. WILL TWEAK THE HOURLY
VALUES AND LEAVE EVERYTHING ELSE THE SAME. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
TROUGH/BOUNDARY APPROACHING...BUT LOOKS LIKE WARM AIR...MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS RETURNING IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...BUT NOTHING DENSE OR WIDE SPREAD...SO WILL
LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR VSBYS IN FOG CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 29/06 AND
29/14Z AT GWO/GTR/MEI AND HBG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  91  68  92 /   0   8   8   9
MERIDIAN      67  88  66  90 /   5  19  15  14
VICKSBURG     62  92  65  92 /   0   4   4   8
HATTIESBURG   67  89  68  91 /   3  13  13  12
NATCHEZ       63  90  67  89 /   0   3   4  10
GREENVILLE    64  92  68  92 /   0   4   5  10
GREENWOOD     66  90  67  91 /   0   8   9  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7/26





000
FXUS64 KJAN 290224
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
924 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FOR TONIGHT WAS GOOD. WILL TWEAK THE HOURLY
VALUES AND LEAVE EVERYTHING ELSE THE SAME. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
TROUGH/BOUNDARY APPROACHING...BUT LOOKS LIKE WARM AIR...MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS RETURNING IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE
SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...BUT NOTHING DENSE OR WIDE SPREAD...SO WILL
LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR VSBYS IN FOG CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 29/06 AND
29/14Z AT GWO/GTR/MEI AND HBG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  91  68  92 /   0   8   8   9
MERIDIAN      67  88  66  90 /   5  19  15  14
VICKSBURG     62  92  65  92 /   0   4   4   8
HATTIESBURG   67  89  68  91 /   3  13  13  12
NATCHEZ       63  90  67  89 /   0   3   4  10
GREENVILLE    64  92  68  92 /   0   4   5  10
GREENWOOD     66  90  67  91 /   0   8   9  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7/26




000
FXUS64 KJAN 282059
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
359 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...A MORE EXPANSIVE CU FIELD DEVELOPED TODAY GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 BUT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WAS ALMOST NIL AND
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINED WELL EAST IN CENTRAL AL. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE VERY GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RATHER LIGHT SLY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SETS UP. PW
VALUES JUST BELOW AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
1-1.2 THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK MID/UPPER
TROUGH/LOW SWINGS FROM ALONG THE MS/AL BORDER EASTWARD. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE SUCCEEDED BY A NEW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST
TO THE NW GULF COAST ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY AID IN INCREASING
POPS SOMEWHAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TS ERIKA REMAINS QUITE DISORGANIZED WITH AN ILL DEFINED LLC AND IS
NOW APPROACHING HISPANIOLA. THIS LACK OF ORGANIZATION HAS ALLOWED
THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO AVOID GREATER INFLUENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL
STEERING AND INSTEAD CONTINUE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. AS A RESULT,
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA, THOUGH IT ALSO SHOWS WEAKENING. AS ERIKA PASSES OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT, IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE
THE STORM COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. REGARDLESS OF HOW IT
EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS EVEN MORE
UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A MID/UPPER
TROUGH WHICH WOULD DEFLECT ANY SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST, BUT THE 12Z
ECM AND ECM ENS A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MIDWEEK. IF ANYTHING, AS
SUGGESTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY FOR OUR AREA TO RECEIVE RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FOLLOW BELOW... /DL/

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE OVER THE CONUS AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE WEST WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
SURGES WELL NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA AND ENCOMPASSES MOST OVER THE
CENTRAL/ERN CONUS. IN THE TRANSITION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND MEANDER AROUND AS THE
PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES BECOMES DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH.

THE NET EFFECT FOR THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD MEAN GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARMTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BE SLOW TO INCREASE GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR LIFT. NEW GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES/POPS ARE IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST TRENDS FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  91  68  92 /   0   8   8   9
MERIDIAN      67  88  66  90 /   5  19  15  14
VICKSBURG     62  92  65  92 /   0   4   4   8
HATTIESBURG   67  89  68  91 /   3  13  13  12
NATCHEZ       63  90  67  89 /   0   3   4  10
GREENVILLE    64  92  68  92 /   0   4   5  10
GREENWOOD     66  90  67  91 /   0   8   9  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/19/EC




000
FXUS64 KJAN 282059
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
359 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...A MORE EXPANSIVE CU FIELD DEVELOPED TODAY GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 BUT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WAS ALMOST NIL AND
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINED WELL EAST IN CENTRAL AL. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE VERY GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RATHER LIGHT SLY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SETS UP. PW
VALUES JUST BELOW AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
1-1.2 THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK MID/UPPER
TROUGH/LOW SWINGS FROM ALONG THE MS/AL BORDER EASTWARD. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE SUCCEEDED BY A NEW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST
TO THE NW GULF COAST ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY AID IN INCREASING
POPS SOMEWHAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TS ERIKA REMAINS QUITE DISORGANIZED WITH AN ILL DEFINED LLC AND IS
NOW APPROACHING HISPANIOLA. THIS LACK OF ORGANIZATION HAS ALLOWED
THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO AVOID GREATER INFLUENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL
STEERING AND INSTEAD CONTINUE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. AS A RESULT,
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA, THOUGH IT ALSO SHOWS WEAKENING. AS ERIKA PASSES OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT, IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE
THE STORM COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. REGARDLESS OF HOW IT
EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS EVEN MORE
UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A MID/UPPER
TROUGH WHICH WOULD DEFLECT ANY SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST, BUT THE 12Z
ECM AND ECM ENS A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MIDWEEK. IF ANYTHING, AS
SUGGESTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY FOR OUR AREA TO RECEIVE RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FOLLOW BELOW... /DL/

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE OVER THE CONUS AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE WEST WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
SURGES WELL NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA AND ENCOMPASSES MOST OVER THE
CENTRAL/ERN CONUS. IN THE TRANSITION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND MEANDER AROUND AS THE
PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES BECOMES DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH.

THE NET EFFECT FOR THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD MEAN GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARMTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BE SLOW TO INCREASE GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR LIFT. NEW GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES/POPS ARE IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST TRENDS FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  91  68  92 /   0   8   8   9
MERIDIAN      67  88  66  90 /   5  19  15  14
VICKSBURG     62  92  65  92 /   0   4   4   8
HATTIESBURG   67  89  68  91 /   3  13  13  12
NATCHEZ       63  90  67  89 /   0   3   4  10
GREENVILLE    64  92  68  92 /   0   4   5  10
GREENWOOD     66  90  67  91 /   0   8   9  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/19/EC





000
FXUS64 KJAN 282059
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
359 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...A MORE EXPANSIVE CU FIELD DEVELOPED TODAY GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 BUT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WAS ALMOST NIL AND
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINED WELL EAST IN CENTRAL AL. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE VERY GRADUALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RATHER LIGHT SLY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SETS UP. PW
VALUES JUST BELOW AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
1-1.2 THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK MID/UPPER
TROUGH/LOW SWINGS FROM ALONG THE MS/AL BORDER EASTWARD. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE SUCCEEDED BY A NEW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST
TO THE NW GULF COAST ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY AID IN INCREASING
POPS SOMEWHAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TS ERIKA REMAINS QUITE DISORGANIZED WITH AN ILL DEFINED LLC AND IS
NOW APPROACHING HISPANIOLA. THIS LACK OF ORGANIZATION HAS ALLOWED
THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO AVOID GREATER INFLUENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL
STEERING AND INSTEAD CONTINUE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. AS A RESULT,
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA, THOUGH IT ALSO SHOWS WEAKENING. AS ERIKA PASSES OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT, IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE
THE STORM COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. REGARDLESS OF HOW IT
EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS EVEN MORE
UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A MID/UPPER
TROUGH WHICH WOULD DEFLECT ANY SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST, BUT THE 12Z
ECM AND ECM ENS A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MIDWEEK. IF ANYTHING, AS
SUGGESTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY FOR OUR AREA TO RECEIVE RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FOLLOW BELOW... /DL/

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE OVER THE CONUS AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE WEST WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
SURGES WELL NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA AND ENCOMPASSES MOST OVER THE
CENTRAL/ERN CONUS. IN THE TRANSITION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND MEANDER AROUND AS THE
PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES BECOMES DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH.

THE NET EFFECT FOR THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD MEAN GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARMTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BE SLOW TO INCREASE GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR MID LEVEL
CAPPING AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR LIFT. NEW GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES/POPS ARE IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST TRENDS FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  91  68  92 /   0   8   8   9
MERIDIAN      67  88  66  90 /   5  19  15  14
VICKSBURG     62  92  65  92 /   0   4   4   8
HATTIESBURG   67  89  68  91 /   3  13  13  12
NATCHEZ       63  90  67  89 /   0   3   4  10
GREENVILLE    64  92  68  92 /   0   4   5  10
GREENWOOD     66  90  67  91 /   0   8   9  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/19/EC





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