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000
FXUS64 KJAN 200903
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
405 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...TRENDING WARMER WITH
LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES BECOMING THE MAIN CONCERN. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD
A 1017MB RIDGE NOSING WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS HELPED
MAINTAIN A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA WITH PWS OF TWO INCHES
AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND
THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER OUR AREA BY
THURSDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE FROM
590DAM THIS MORNING TO 595DAM BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL HELP
STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE HIGH THAT LOOKS TO REMAIN CENTERED JUST SOUTH
OF OUR CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE AROUND 92F
AND TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT WARMER THAN NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFSMOS GUIDANCE WAS A LITTLE TOO WARM AND
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH DAY. THIS WILL RESULT RESULT IN MID 90S AT MOST
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100-103 TODAY AND 101-104 THURSDAY. MODELS STILL SUGGEST
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND IN THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /22/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY. THE WEATHER
PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN A GOOD BIT THIS SUMMER OF A TROUGH OVER THE
EAST AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL BE REVERSED FOR A FEW DAYS.
CONDITIONS WILL FEEL A BIT MORE LIKE A TRUE DEEP SOUTH SUMMER AS A
593DM RIDGE WILL SET UP RIGHT OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP FOR THE FIRST REAL TIME THIS
SUMMER WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. THAT...
COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...WILL ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO BE A
CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT COULD BE POSSIBLE THAT DEWPOINTS
WILL MIX OUT JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDEX READINGS A LITTLE MORE
IN CHECK. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS LIKE WITH THOSE 70S
DEWPOINTS WE COULD SEE HEAT INDICES NEARING 105 DEGREES AREAWIDE AND
SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THIS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MEX
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN WARMER THAN THE OTHER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE AND HAVE CUT HIGHS DURING THIS HOT STRETCH BY 1-2
DEGREES...CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND THE ECMWF. IN ADDITION TO
THE HEAT...THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY DURING THIS TIME.

BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION AND HEIGHTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST ON MONDAY AND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST ON
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE REGION WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING/WEAKENING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING FRONT TO
THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER IN THE LOWER 90S ALONG
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER.

FURTHER INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE TROPICS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NHC HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT ON AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THIS SYSTEM AS A
VERY DEVELOPED TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO THE GULF AT 240 HOURS. THE
ECMWF THIS MORNING DOES SHOW THIS SYSTEM ENTERING THE GULF AS WELL
BEFORE GETTING SWEPT UP WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SCENARIO IS
BEYOND 200 HOURS AND IS WAY TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY CONJECTURES YET AS
TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM HAS NOT
DEVELOPED YET. WE WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST MODEL
TRENDS AND FORECASTS FROM NHC. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY ONLY SHOWED A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE AREA AND ALL TAF SITES WERE OBSERVING VFR CONDS AT 09Z. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS WL BE PSBL FROM 10-13Z BUT VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE HBG
AS ISOLD TSTMS WL BE PSBL THIS AFTN ALONG THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. S-SW
WINDS LESS THAN 7KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       95  73  97  74 /   8   5   6   5
MERIDIAN      95  71  97  72 /  12   5   5   5
VICKSBURG     95  72  96  72 /   8   5   6   5
HATTIESBURG   96  75  97  74 /  18   5  12   5
NATCHEZ       94  73  95  74 /  16   5  14   5
GREENVILLE    95  74  96  74 /   6   5   5   5
GREENWOOD     95  73  96  73 /   6   5   5   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/28/22









000
FXUS64 KJAN 200213 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
913 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN AT THIS
POINT...WITH THE LAST REMAINING ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA AROUND THE PINE
BELT. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF REDEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN SPOTS OVER EAST MS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY.
WINDS SHOULD BE CALM TO LIGHT AND CLEARING SKY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE LOCATIONS. UPDATES ARE
CURRENTLY BEING SENT. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AND THE FOCUS FOR THE
TAF FORECAST WILL BE ON MVFR VIS CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 07-09Z
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SITE OR TWO SEEING A PERIOD OF IFR VIS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SITES BETWEEN 12-14Z. ALL OF THIS IS COVERED IN
THE CURRENT TAFS EXCEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR VIS. THIS MAY NEED TO
BE ADDED LATER. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY 14-15Z AND PERSIST ON
WED. /CME/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

BIG STORY THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT STRESS ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS AS HEAT INDICES CLIMB NEAR 105F TOMORROW AND INTO THE
104-109F RANGE ON THURSDAY WITH DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES.

RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION TOMORROW AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK. THIS WILL ACT TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGHEST SEEN
SO FAR THIS SUMMER AND MAKE RAIN CHANCES QUITE MINIMAL TO NIL.
HOWEVER FOR TOMORROW, THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
THE FAR SOUTH OWING FROM SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY BUT THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. EVEN LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH MID WEEK
AND WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY MIXING OUT TO NEAR 70F; DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BECOME A HAZARD. HAVE PLACED AN ELEVATED RISK OF HEAT
STRESS AS HEAT INDICES OF 105-109F RANGE LOOK TO OCCUR THURSDAY IN
THE DELTA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR HEAT ADVISORY BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL LOOK TO DROP BELOW 75F EACH NIGHT. THIS PATTERN COULD PERSIST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AS
BOTH EC/GFS HOLD ON TO STRONG 594DM RIDGING. /ALLEN/

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...

HOTTER AND DRIER THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA WHILE THE LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH
STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER OUR CWA BY FRIDAY. A RATHER
MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWS OF 1.7-1.8 INCHES AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE AROUND
92F AND TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT THURSDAY ABOVE NORMAL AT 95-97F AT
MOST SITES. MODEL CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN BREAKING DOWN THE
LARGE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA UNTIL IT BEGINS SHIFTING EAST MONDAY. AS A
RESULT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 90S
EACH DAY WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES PEAKING AROUND 105 FOR SEVERAL HOURS EACH AFTERNOON. A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF THE WEEK IF GREATER HUMIDITY CAN
BE MAINTAINED INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST MONDAY OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS BY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE ALSO IN PART TO THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE AREA. /22/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/CME/ALLEN/22







000
FXUS64 KJAN 200213 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
913 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN AT THIS
POINT...WITH THE LAST REMAINING ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA AROUND THE PINE
BELT. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF REDEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN SPOTS OVER EAST MS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY.
WINDS SHOULD BE CALM TO LIGHT AND CLEARING SKY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE LOCATIONS. UPDATES ARE
CURRENTLY BEING SENT. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AND THE FOCUS FOR THE
TAF FORECAST WILL BE ON MVFR VIS CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 07-09Z
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SITE OR TWO SEEING A PERIOD OF IFR VIS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SITES BETWEEN 12-14Z. ALL OF THIS IS COVERED IN
THE CURRENT TAFS EXCEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR VIS. THIS MAY NEED TO
BE ADDED LATER. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY 14-15Z AND PERSIST ON
WED. /CME/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

BIG STORY THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT STRESS ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS AS HEAT INDICES CLIMB NEAR 105F TOMORROW AND INTO THE
104-109F RANGE ON THURSDAY WITH DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES.

RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION TOMORROW AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK. THIS WILL ACT TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGHEST SEEN
SO FAR THIS SUMMER AND MAKE RAIN CHANCES QUITE MINIMAL TO NIL.
HOWEVER FOR TOMORROW, THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
THE FAR SOUTH OWING FROM SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY BUT THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. EVEN LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH MID WEEK
AND WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY MIXING OUT TO NEAR 70F; DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BECOME A HAZARD. HAVE PLACED AN ELEVATED RISK OF HEAT
STRESS AS HEAT INDICES OF 105-109F RANGE LOOK TO OCCUR THURSDAY IN
THE DELTA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR HEAT ADVISORY BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL LOOK TO DROP BELOW 75F EACH NIGHT. THIS PATTERN COULD PERSIST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AS
BOTH EC/GFS HOLD ON TO STRONG 594DM RIDGING. /ALLEN/

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...

HOTTER AND DRIER THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA WHILE THE LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH
STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER OUR CWA BY FRIDAY. A RATHER
MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWS OF 1.7-1.8 INCHES AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE AROUND
92F AND TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT THURSDAY ABOVE NORMAL AT 95-97F AT
MOST SITES. MODEL CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN BREAKING DOWN THE
LARGE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA UNTIL IT BEGINS SHIFTING EAST MONDAY. AS A
RESULT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 90S
EACH DAY WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES PEAKING AROUND 105 FOR SEVERAL HOURS EACH AFTERNOON. A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF THE WEEK IF GREATER HUMIDITY CAN
BE MAINTAINED INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST MONDAY OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS BY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE ALSO IN PART TO THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE AREA. /22/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/CME/ALLEN/22






000
FXUS64 KJAN 192046
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
346 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

BIG STORY THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT STRESS ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS AS HEAT INDICES CLIMB NEAR 105F TOMORROW AND INTO THE
104-109F RANGE ON THURSDAY WITH DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY CONFINED
IN EAST MS WITH EVEN LESS ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL MS. COVERAGE HAS
BEEN HAMPERED AS COLUMN HEIGHT RISES HAVE BEGUN OVER THE REGION AND
WITH A LACK OF ANY FORCING MECHANISM.  RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE REGION TOMORROW AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL ACT TO
INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGHEST SEEN SO FAR THIS SUMMER AND
MAKE RAIN CHANCES QUITE MINIMAL TO NIL. HOWEVER FOR TOMORROW, THERE
COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE FAR SOUTH OWING FROM
SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY BUT THE REST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. EVEN
LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE RISE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH MID WEEK
AND WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY MIXING OUT TO NEAR 70F; DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BECOME A HAZARD. HAVE PLACED AN ELEVATED RISK OF HEAT
STRESS AS HEAT INDICES OF 105-109F RANGE LOOK TO OCCUR THURSDAY IN
THE DELTA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR HEAT ADVISORY BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL LOOK TO DROP BELOW 75F EACH NIGHT. THIS PATTERN COULD PERSIST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AS
BOTH EC/GFS HOLD ON TO STRONG 594DM RIDGING. /ALLEN/

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...

HOTTER AND DRIER THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA WHILE THE LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH
STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER OUR CWA BY FRIDAY. A RATHER
MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWS OF 1.7-1.8 INCHES AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE AROUND
92F AND TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT THURSDAY ABOVE NORMAL AT 95-97F AT
MOST SITES. MODEL CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN BREAKING DOWN THE
LARGE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA UNTIL IT BEGINS SHIFTING EAST MONDAY. AS A
RESULT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 90S
EACH DAY WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES PEAKING AROUND 105 FOR SEVERAL HOURS EACH AFTERNOON. A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF THE WEEK IF GREATER HUMIDITY CAN
BE MAINTAINED INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST MONDAY OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS BY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE ALSO IN PART TO THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE AREA. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT MOST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS AGAIN DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...MUCH OF IT CURRENTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 55
CORRIDOR. THIS COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES IF CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN A TAF SITE`S
RESPECTED AERODROME. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING...WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY
FOG. WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS...AND
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  95  74  97 /  16  14   5   6
MERIDIAN      72  95  72  97 /  16  13   5   5
VICKSBURG     72  95  72  96 /  16  13   5   6
HATTIESBURG   74  95  74  98 /  16  26   5  12
NATCHEZ       73  95  73  94 /  16  24   5  14
GREENVILLE    74  96  74  97 /  16   9   5   6
GREENWOOD     73  95  73  97 /  16  11   5   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/22/19







000
FXUS64 KJAN 192046
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
346 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

BIG STORY THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT STRESS ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS AS HEAT INDICES CLIMB NEAR 105F TOMORROW AND INTO THE
104-109F RANGE ON THURSDAY WITH DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY CONFINED
IN EAST MS WITH EVEN LESS ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL MS. COVERAGE HAS
BEEN HAMPERED AS COLUMN HEIGHT RISES HAVE BEGUN OVER THE REGION AND
WITH A LACK OF ANY FORCING MECHANISM.  RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE REGION TOMORROW AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL ACT TO
INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGHEST SEEN SO FAR THIS SUMMER AND
MAKE RAIN CHANCES QUITE MINIMAL TO NIL. HOWEVER FOR TOMORROW, THERE
COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE FAR SOUTH OWING FROM
SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY BUT THE REST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. EVEN
LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE RISE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH MID WEEK
AND WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY MIXING OUT TO NEAR 70F; DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BECOME A HAZARD. HAVE PLACED AN ELEVATED RISK OF HEAT
STRESS AS HEAT INDICES OF 105-109F RANGE LOOK TO OCCUR THURSDAY IN
THE DELTA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR HEAT ADVISORY BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL LOOK TO DROP BELOW 75F EACH NIGHT. THIS PATTERN COULD PERSIST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AS
BOTH EC/GFS HOLD ON TO STRONG 594DM RIDGING. /ALLEN/

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...

HOTTER AND DRIER THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA WHILE THE LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH
STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER OUR CWA BY FRIDAY. A RATHER
MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWS OF 1.7-1.8 INCHES AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE AROUND
92F AND TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT THURSDAY ABOVE NORMAL AT 95-97F AT
MOST SITES. MODEL CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN BREAKING DOWN THE
LARGE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA UNTIL IT BEGINS SHIFTING EAST MONDAY. AS A
RESULT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 90S
EACH DAY WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES PEAKING AROUND 105 FOR SEVERAL HOURS EACH AFTERNOON. A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF THE WEEK IF GREATER HUMIDITY CAN
BE MAINTAINED INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST MONDAY OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS BY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE ALSO IN PART TO THE SEA BREEZE FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE AREA. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT MOST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS AGAIN DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...MUCH OF IT CURRENTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 55
CORRIDOR. THIS COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES IF CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN A TAF SITE`S
RESPECTED AERODROME. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING...WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY
FOG. WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS...AND
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  95  74  97 /  16  14   5   6
MERIDIAN      72  95  72  97 /  16  13   5   5
VICKSBURG     72  95  72  96 /  16  13   5   6
HATTIESBURG   74  95  74  98 /  16  26   5  12
NATCHEZ       73  95  73  94 /  16  24   5  14
GREENVILLE    74  96  74  97 /  16   9   5   6
GREENWOOD     73  95  73  97 /  16  11   5   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/22/19






000
FXUS64 KJAN 191533 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1033 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORM WORDING ACROSS NW LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS BUT ALSO CUT SOME FOR SW AREAS THROUGH THAT SAME TIME
PERIOD. HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINTS WERE ALTERED SLIGHTLY BUT MAINLY ON
TRACK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN EXPECTED HIGHS.

.DISCUSSION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN AR/TN MOVING INTO
NORTH MS THIS HOUR. HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING
THIS ACTIVITY BUT THE RAP DOES INDICATE SOME LOWER CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS IN CONJUNCTION WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE VICINITY OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
FOLLOWING THE RAP GUIDANCE, IT SUGGESTS A LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AREA
TO PROPAGATE OUT OF THIS CLUSTER (LIKELY FROM AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY)
THAT COULD ACT TO INITIATE NEW ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY AS
INSTABILITY BUILDS. MICROBURST RISK REVEALED SUBSTANTIAL SBCAPE
ABOVE 3000 J/KG BUT WITH PWATS UP NEAR 2" FEEL SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BEGIN BY EARLY AFTN SOUTH OF THIS CLUSTER. SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE IF ORGANIZED ALONG A
COLD POOL BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF THESE HAZARDS WILL BE ISOLATED.
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY STRONG/SEVERE GRAPHIC UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AN UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND BELOW. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE BEING OBSERVED
THIS MORNING AS LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER TO ERODE THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  STILL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WE
MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS
BETWEEN 3000-5000 FEET EXPECTED...ALONG WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD.  SCATTERED CONVECTION IS AGAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY.  THIS COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES IF CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
WITHIN A TAF SITES RESPECTED AERODROME.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATED THIS EVENING...WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW
STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS...AND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. /19/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS RIDGING CONTINUES
OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY...THE ARKLAMISS REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THERE TODAY.
THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. WHILE SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES...HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THIS REGION AND SHOULD
WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION A BIT MORE THERE. WHILE CONVECTION IN
THIS NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME HAS NOT BEEN DEPICTED TERRIBLY WELL ON
MODELS OF LATE...HI-RES MODELS AND EVEN THE LOCAL WRF SEEM TO
INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY WILL BE IN THE EAST AND HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THIS
REGION. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S BUT WITH
HUMIDITY...HEAT INDICES WILL NEAR 100 DEGREES.

THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR A WHILE.
THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD BE DRY AS HEIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TAD
WARMER AND COULD FLIRT WITH THE 95-97 DEGREE RANGE. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE A BIT MORE MUGGY AS THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND 70 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS WILL BRING HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE LIMITED RISK CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICS
FOR HEAT INDICES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. /28/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HOTTER AND DRIER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THURSDAY MORNING A LARGE 593DAM HIGH ATOP A 1019MB SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA WHILE THE LARGE MID LEVEL
HIGH STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER OUR CWA BY THURSDAY
EVENING. A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWS OF 1.7-1.8
INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NORMAL AFTERNOON
HIGHS ARE AROUND 92F AND TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT THURSDAY ABOVE
NORMAL AT 95-97F AT MOST SITES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIER AIR
WILL MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON LOWERING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
60S. THIS WILL KNOCK THE HUMIDITY DOWN SOME BUT THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE FOR MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-103
THURSDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN
BREAKING DOWN THE LARGE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA UNTIL IT BEGINS SHIFTING
EAST MONDAY. AS A RESULT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S EACH DAY WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING AROUND 105 FOR SEVERAL HOURS
EACH AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF THE WEEK
IF GREATER HUMIDITY CAN BE MAINTAINED INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST MONDAY OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE ALSO IN PART TO
THE SEA BREEZE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       94  73  96  73 /  36  14   7   6
MERIDIAN      92  71  96  72 /  42  12  10   5
VICKSBURG     94  71  96  71 /  20  11   4   7
HATTIESBURG   95  74  97  74 /  44  14  25   9
NATCHEZ       93  73  94  73 /  25  11  14  10
GREENVILLE    94  74  96  74 /  21   9   3   6
GREENWOOD     94  73  97  73 /  29  10   4   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/19/28/22







000
FXUS64 KJAN 191533 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1033 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORM WORDING ACROSS NW LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS BUT ALSO CUT SOME FOR SW AREAS THROUGH THAT SAME TIME
PERIOD. HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINTS WERE ALTERED SLIGHTLY BUT MAINLY ON
TRACK WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN EXPECTED HIGHS.

.DISCUSSION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN AR/TN MOVING INTO
NORTH MS THIS HOUR. HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING
THIS ACTIVITY BUT THE RAP DOES INDICATE SOME LOWER CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS IN CONJUNCTION WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE VICINITY OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY.
FOLLOWING THE RAP GUIDANCE, IT SUGGESTS A LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AREA
TO PROPAGATE OUT OF THIS CLUSTER (LIKELY FROM AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY)
THAT COULD ACT TO INITIATE NEW ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY AS
INSTABILITY BUILDS. MICROBURST RISK REVEALED SUBSTANTIAL SBCAPE
ABOVE 3000 J/KG BUT WITH PWATS UP NEAR 2" FEEL SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BEGIN BY EARLY AFTN SOUTH OF THIS CLUSTER. SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE IF ORGANIZED ALONG A
COLD POOL BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF THESE HAZARDS WILL BE ISOLATED.
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY STRONG/SEVERE GRAPHIC UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AN UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND BELOW. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE BEING OBSERVED
THIS MORNING AS LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER TO ERODE THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  STILL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WE
MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS
BETWEEN 3000-5000 FEET EXPECTED...ALONG WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD.  SCATTERED CONVECTION IS AGAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY.  THIS COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES IF CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
WITHIN A TAF SITES RESPECTED AERODROME.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DISSIPATED THIS EVENING...WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW
STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS...AND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT. /19/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS RIDGING CONTINUES
OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY...THE ARKLAMISS REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THERE TODAY.
THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. WHILE SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES...HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THIS REGION AND SHOULD
WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION A BIT MORE THERE. WHILE CONVECTION IN
THIS NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME HAS NOT BEEN DEPICTED TERRIBLY WELL ON
MODELS OF LATE...HI-RES MODELS AND EVEN THE LOCAL WRF SEEM TO
INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY WILL BE IN THE EAST AND HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THIS
REGION. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S BUT WITH
HUMIDITY...HEAT INDICES WILL NEAR 100 DEGREES.

THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR A WHILE.
THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD BE DRY AS HEIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TAD
WARMER AND COULD FLIRT WITH THE 95-97 DEGREE RANGE. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE A BIT MORE MUGGY AS THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND 70 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS WILL BRING HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE LIMITED RISK CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICS
FOR HEAT INDICES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. /28/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HOTTER AND DRIER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THURSDAY MORNING A LARGE 593DAM HIGH ATOP A 1019MB SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA WHILE THE LARGE MID LEVEL
HIGH STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER OUR CWA BY THURSDAY
EVENING. A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWS OF 1.7-1.8
INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NORMAL AFTERNOON
HIGHS ARE AROUND 92F AND TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT THURSDAY ABOVE
NORMAL AT 95-97F AT MOST SITES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIER AIR
WILL MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON LOWERING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
60S. THIS WILL KNOCK THE HUMIDITY DOWN SOME BUT THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE FOR MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-103
THURSDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN
BREAKING DOWN THE LARGE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA UNTIL IT BEGINS SHIFTING
EAST MONDAY. AS A RESULT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S EACH DAY WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING AROUND 105 FOR SEVERAL HOURS
EACH AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF THE WEEK
IF GREATER HUMIDITY CAN BE MAINTAINED INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST MONDAY OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE ALSO IN PART TO
THE SEA BREEZE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       94  73  96  73 /  36  14   7   6
MERIDIAN      92  71  96  72 /  42  12  10   5
VICKSBURG     94  71  96  71 /  20  11   4   7
HATTIESBURG   95  74  97  74 /  44  14  25   9
NATCHEZ       93  73  94  73 /  25  11  14  10
GREENVILLE    94  74  96  74 /  21   9   3   6
GREENWOOD     94  73  97  73 /  29  10   4   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/19/28/22






000
FXUS64 KJAN 190903
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
403 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS RIDGING CONTINUES
OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY...THE ARKLAMISS REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THERE TODAY.
THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. WHILE SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES...HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THIS REGION AND SHOULD
WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION A BIT MORE THERE. WHILE CONVECTION IN
THIS NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME HAS NOT BEEN DEPICTED TERRIBLY WELL ON
MODELS OF LATE...HI-RES MODELS AND EVEN THE LOCAL WRF SEEM TO
INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY WILL BE IN THE EAST AND HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THIS
REGION. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S BUT WITH
HUMIDITY...HEAT INDICES WILL NEAR 100 DEGREES.

THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR A WHILE.
THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD BE DRY AS HEIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TAD
WARMER AND COULD FLIRT WITH THE 95-97 DEGREE RANGE. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE A BIT MORE MUGGY AS THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND 70 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS WILL BRING HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE LIMITED RISK CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICS
FOR HEAT INDICES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. /28/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HOTTER AND DRIER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THURSDAY MORNING A LARGE 593DAM HIGH ATOP A 1019MB SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA WHILE THE LARGE MID LEVEL
HIGH STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER OUR CWA BY THURSDAY
EVENING. A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWS OF 1.7-1.8
INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NORMAL AFTERNOON
HIGHS ARE AROUND 92F AND TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT THURSDAY ABOVE
NORMAL AT 95-97F AT MOST SITES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIER AIR
WILL MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON LOWERING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
60S. THIS WILL KNOCK THE HUMIDITY DOWN SOME BUT THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE FOR MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-103
THURSDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN
BREAKING DOWN THE LARGE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA UNTIL IT BEGINS SHIFTING
EAST MONDAY. AS A RESULT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S EACH DAY WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING AROUND 105 FOR SEVERAL HOURS
EACH AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF THE WEEK
IF GREATER HUMIDITY CAN BE MAINTAINED INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST MONDAY OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE ALSO IN PART TO
THE SEA BREEZE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING THIS MORNING. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT SAW RAIN MONDAY. FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL IMPROVE AFTER
14-15Z WITH ALL AREAS TRENDING TO VFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR TAF SITES ALONG AND EAST OF I-55.
/28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       94  73  96  73 /  36  14   7   6
MERIDIAN      92  71  96  72 /  42  12  10   5
VICKSBURG     94  71  96  71 /  17  11   4   7
HATTIESBURG   95  74  97  74 /  44  14  25   9
NATCHEZ       93  73  94  73 /  26  11  14  10
GREENVILLE    94  74  96  74 /  20   9   3   6
GREENWOOD     94  73  97  73 /  29  10   4   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/22






000
FXUS64 KJAN 190903
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
403 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS RIDGING CONTINUES
OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY...THE ARKLAMISS REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THERE TODAY.
THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. WHILE SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES...HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING IN THIS REGION AND SHOULD
WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION A BIT MORE THERE. WHILE CONVECTION IN
THIS NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME HAS NOT BEEN DEPICTED TERRIBLY WELL ON
MODELS OF LATE...HI-RES MODELS AND EVEN THE LOCAL WRF SEEM TO
INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY WILL BE IN THE EAST AND HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THIS
REGION. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S BUT WITH
HUMIDITY...HEAT INDICES WILL NEAR 100 DEGREES.

THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR A WHILE.
THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD BE DRY AS HEIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TAD
WARMER AND COULD FLIRT WITH THE 95-97 DEGREE RANGE. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE A BIT MORE MUGGY AS THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND 70 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS WILL BRING HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE LIMITED RISK CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICS
FOR HEAT INDICES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY NEED FOR AN ADVISORY. /28/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HOTTER AND DRIER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THURSDAY MORNING A LARGE 593DAM HIGH ATOP A 1019MB SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA WHILE THE LARGE MID LEVEL
HIGH STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER OUR CWA BY THURSDAY
EVENING. A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWS OF 1.7-1.8
INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NORMAL AFTERNOON
HIGHS ARE AROUND 92F AND TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT THURSDAY ABOVE
NORMAL AT 95-97F AT MOST SITES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIER AIR
WILL MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON LOWERING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
60S. THIS WILL KNOCK THE HUMIDITY DOWN SOME BUT THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE FOR MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-103
THURSDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN
BREAKING DOWN THE LARGE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA UNTIL IT BEGINS SHIFTING
EAST MONDAY. AS A RESULT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S EACH DAY WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING AROUND 105 FOR SEVERAL HOURS
EACH AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF THE WEEK
IF GREATER HUMIDITY CAN BE MAINTAINED INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST MONDAY OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE ALSO IN PART TO
THE SEA BREEZE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING THIS MORNING. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT SAW RAIN MONDAY. FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL IMPROVE AFTER
14-15Z WITH ALL AREAS TRENDING TO VFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR TAF SITES ALONG AND EAST OF I-55.
/28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       94  73  96  73 /  36  14   7   6
MERIDIAN      92  71  96  72 /  42  12  10   5
VICKSBURG     94  71  96  71 /  17  11   4   7
HATTIESBURG   95  74  97  74 /  44  14  25   9
NATCHEZ       93  73  94  73 /  26  11  14  10
GREENVILLE    94  74  96  74 /  20   9   3   6
GREENWOOD     94  73  97  73 /  29  10   4   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/22







000
FXUS64 KJAN 190222 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
921 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...FOLLOWING AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MUCH OF THE EVENING HAS BEEN QUIET SAVE FOR A
COUPLE ROTATING MINI-SUPERCELLS IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THAT IS
NOW CHANGING AS A NEW COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING
SUSTAINED IN A CORRIDOR OF MLCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WE EXPECT THESE STORMS COULD PERSIST FOR
AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...EVENTUALLY LOSING STEAM WITH THE GRADUAL
LOSS OF INSTABILITY. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT MULTIPLE BOWING
SEGMENTS. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE DELTA AND AREAS WEST OF I-55 FOR THE EVENING HOURS. WITH A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS (OBSERVED 00Z PWAT >2 IN AT KJAN)...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AS DEPICTED BY SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. RIGHT NOW THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN LATER ON APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF I-20. UPDATES ARE
CURRENTLY BEING SHIPPED OUT. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...THE SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE THE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
MOVING SSE ACROSS THE DELTA. JUST HOW FAR INTO THE CWA IT WILL GET
REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO MENTION SOME TSRA FOR
HKS/JAN BY 06-08Z. ALSO...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL CLUSTER TOWARD
SUNRISE. DUE TO THIS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF TSRA RISK FOR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN SITES. LASTLY...OUTSIDE OF ANY PRECIP...THERE LOOKS TO
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 06-08Z. FLIGHT CATEGORIES
WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14-15Z TUE WITH ALL AREAS TRENDING TO VFR. /CME/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/CE/







000
FXUS64 KJAN 190222 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
921 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...FOLLOWING AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MUCH OF THE EVENING HAS BEEN QUIET SAVE FOR A
COUPLE ROTATING MINI-SUPERCELLS IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THAT IS
NOW CHANGING AS A NEW COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING
SUSTAINED IN A CORRIDOR OF MLCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WE EXPECT THESE STORMS COULD PERSIST FOR
AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...EVENTUALLY LOSING STEAM WITH THE GRADUAL
LOSS OF INSTABILITY. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT MULTIPLE BOWING
SEGMENTS. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE DELTA AND AREAS WEST OF I-55 FOR THE EVENING HOURS. WITH A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS (OBSERVED 00Z PWAT >2 IN AT KJAN)...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AS DEPICTED BY SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. RIGHT NOW THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN LATER ON APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF I-20. UPDATES ARE
CURRENTLY BEING SHIPPED OUT. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...THE SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE THE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
MOVING SSE ACROSS THE DELTA. JUST HOW FAR INTO THE CWA IT WILL GET
REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO MENTION SOME TSRA FOR
HKS/JAN BY 06-08Z. ALSO...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL CLUSTER TOWARD
SUNRISE. DUE TO THIS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF TSRA RISK FOR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN SITES. LASTLY...OUTSIDE OF ANY PRECIP...THERE LOOKS TO
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 06-08Z. FLIGHT CATEGORIES
WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14-15Z TUE WITH ALL AREAS TRENDING TO VFR. /CME/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/CE/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 190211 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
911 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...FOLLOWING AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MUCH OF THE EVENING HAS BEEN QUIET SAVE FOR A
COUPLE ROTATING MINI-SUPERCELLS IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THAT IS
NOW CHANGING AS A NEW COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING
SUSTAINED IN A CORRIDOR OF MLCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WE EXPECT THESE STORMS COULD PERSIST FOR
AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...EVENTUALLY LOSING STEAM WITH THE GRADUAL
LOSS OF INSTABILITY. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT MULTIPLE BOWING
SEGMENTS. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE DELTA AND AREAS WEST OF I-55 FOR THE EVENING HOURS. WITH A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS (OBSERVED 00Z PWAT >2 IN AT KJAN)...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AS DEPICTED BY SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. RIGHT NOW THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN LATER ON APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF I-20. UPDATES ARE
CURRENTLY BEING SHIPPED OUT. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/
AS MENTIONED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT
LEAST A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT AND UNTIL LATER TUESDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
ZONES...BUT EVEN THERE POPS REALLY NOT GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED DOWNPOURS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH I AM NOT ANTICIPATING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BEING
NEEDED ANYWHERE.

FOR TOMORROW THE MAIN STORY WILL LIKELY BE MOTHER NATURE STARTING TO
TURN UP THE THERMOSTAT. OF COURSE WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
ANY STORMS BY LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF MS. MAV HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 93-96 RANGE LOOK
ON TRACK WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE CENTURY MARK IN A GOOD DEAL OF SPOTS.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD RIGHT ATOP THE
REGION...INCREASING HEAT AND LIMITING ANY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 105 DEGREES.

AT THIS POINT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKING QUITE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
IN TERMS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
EVEN MORE REMOTE. CONSIDERING THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST
STRETCH OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND STARTING
MENTIONING LIMITED RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT IN THE HWO FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THE COMING WEEKEND MIGHT HOLD A
LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR ACTUALLY REACHING FULL HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO BEGIN
THAT OFFICIAL ADVERTISEMENT.

MODELS TODAY CONTINUED TO PAINT THE PICTURE OF THE DOGGED RIDGE
STARTING TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO GOOD
RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUT THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS A WAYS OFF AND WE MUST BRACE FOR THE HOT
STRETCH TO COME. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO EASTERN MS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED CIGS/VSYBS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OTHERWISE.
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. /EC/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/BB/EC







000
FXUS64 KJAN 190211 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
911 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...FOLLOWING AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MUCH OF THE EVENING HAS BEEN QUIET SAVE FOR A
COUPLE ROTATING MINI-SUPERCELLS IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THAT IS
NOW CHANGING AS A NEW COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING
SUSTAINED IN A CORRIDOR OF MLCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WE EXPECT THESE STORMS COULD PERSIST FOR
AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...EVENTUALLY LOSING STEAM WITH THE GRADUAL
LOSS OF INSTABILITY. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT MULTIPLE BOWING
SEGMENTS. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE DELTA AND AREAS WEST OF I-55 FOR THE EVENING HOURS. WITH A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS (OBSERVED 00Z PWAT >2 IN AT KJAN)...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT AS DEPICTED BY SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. RIGHT NOW THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN LATER ON APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF I-20. UPDATES ARE
CURRENTLY BEING SHIPPED OUT. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/
AS MENTIONED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT
LEAST A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT AND UNTIL LATER TUESDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
ZONES...BUT EVEN THERE POPS REALLY NOT GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED DOWNPOURS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH I AM NOT ANTICIPATING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BEING
NEEDED ANYWHERE.

FOR TOMORROW THE MAIN STORY WILL LIKELY BE MOTHER NATURE STARTING TO
TURN UP THE THERMOSTAT. OF COURSE WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
ANY STORMS BY LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF MS. MAV HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 93-96 RANGE LOOK
ON TRACK WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE CENTURY MARK IN A GOOD DEAL OF SPOTS.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD RIGHT ATOP THE
REGION...INCREASING HEAT AND LIMITING ANY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 105 DEGREES.

AT THIS POINT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKING QUITE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
IN TERMS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
EVEN MORE REMOTE. CONSIDERING THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST
STRETCH OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND STARTING
MENTIONING LIMITED RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT IN THE HWO FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THE COMING WEEKEND MIGHT HOLD A
LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR ACTUALLY REACHING FULL HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO BEGIN
THAT OFFICIAL ADVERTISEMENT.

MODELS TODAY CONTINUED TO PAINT THE PICTURE OF THE DOGGED RIDGE
STARTING TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO GOOD
RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUT THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS A WAYS OFF AND WE MUST BRACE FOR THE HOT
STRETCH TO COME. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO EASTERN MS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED CIGS/VSYBS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OTHERWISE.
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. /EC/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/BB/EC






000
FXUS64 KJAN 182021
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS CAN BE A PAIN IN THE
SUMMER...AND SUCH HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS GO ROUND. RATHER LARGE AND
MATURE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA EARLY THIS MORNING DECIDED TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY IN MAGNITUDE
AND COVERAGE AFTER SUNRISE AS IT PROGRESSED INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ATMOSPHERIC LIFTING INHERENT WITH THE
INCOMING MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE VORT MAX DID MANAGE TO SPARK A GOOD
DEAL OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS ALTHOUGH
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ALREADY EXITING TO THE EAST. I CAN
UNDERSTAND THE FRUSTRATION OF THOSE ANTICIPATING RAIN TODAY BUT THAT
HAVE YET TO RECEIVE ANY...BUT THE DAY IS NOT OVER YET AND THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE! GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING CONVECTIVE VORT WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME...BUT FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OF THAT INFLUENCE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF ZONES BECOMING
GRADUALLY MORE CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE SUNSET. LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY SIMULATION DEPICTS A LOOSE
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ORGANIZING NEAR I-20 OVER NORTHERN LA
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN PROGRESSING TOWARD CENTRAL MS
BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME
MERIT...BUT IT IS MORE IMPORTANT TO NOTE THE SLIGHTLY PERTURBED
NORTHWEST FLOW SCENARIO REMAINING IN PLACE UNTIL LATE TOMORROW IS
CONDUCIVE FOR LOOSELY ORGANIZED AND SOMETIMES RANDOM CONVECTION.

AS MENTIONED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT
LEAST A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT AND UNTIL LATER TUESDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
ZONES...BUT EVEN THERE POPS REALLY NOT GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED DOWNPOURS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH I AM NOT ANTICIPATING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BEING
NEEDED ANYWHERE.

FOR TOMORROW THE MAIN STORY WILL LIKELY BE MOTHER NATURE STARTING TO
TURN UP THE THERMOSTAT. OF COURSE WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
ANY STORMS BY LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF MS. MAV HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 93-96 RANGE LOOK
ON TRACK WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE CENTURY MARK IN A GOOD DEAL OF SPOTS.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD RIGHT ATOP THE
REGION...INCREASING HEAT AND LIMITING ANY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 105 DEGREES.

AT THIS POINT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKING QUITE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
IN TERMS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
EVEN MORE REMOTE. CONSIDERING THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST
STRETCH OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND STARTING
MENTIONING LIMITED RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT IN THE HWO FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THE COMING WEEKEND MIGHT HOLD A
LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR ACTUALLY REACHING FULL HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO BEGIN
THAT OFFICIAL ADVERTISEMENT.

MODELS TODAY CONTINUED TO PAINT THE PICTURE OF THE DOGGED RIDGE
STARTING TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO GOOD
RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUT THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS A WAYS OFF AND WE MUST BRACE FOR THE HOT
STRETCH TO COME. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO EASTERN MS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED CIGS/VSYBS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OTHERWISE.
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  94  73  96 /  25  21   5  10
MERIDIAN      71  94  71  97 /  29  23   5   7
VICKSBURG     71  94  72  96 /  20  16   5  11
HATTIESBURG   75  95  74  96 /  15  18   8  17
NATCHEZ       74  93  73  94 /  14  15   6  17
GREENVILLE    72  96  74  97 /  23  20   5   7
GREENWOOD     71  94  73  96 /  28  24   5   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/EC






000
FXUS64 KJAN 182021
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...FORECASTING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS CAN BE A PAIN IN THE
SUMMER...AND SUCH HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS GO ROUND. RATHER LARGE AND
MATURE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA EARLY THIS MORNING DECIDED TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY IN MAGNITUDE
AND COVERAGE AFTER SUNRISE AS IT PROGRESSED INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ATMOSPHERIC LIFTING INHERENT WITH THE
INCOMING MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE VORT MAX DID MANAGE TO SPARK A GOOD
DEAL OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS ALTHOUGH
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ALREADY EXITING TO THE EAST. I CAN
UNDERSTAND THE FRUSTRATION OF THOSE ANTICIPATING RAIN TODAY BUT THAT
HAVE YET TO RECEIVE ANY...BUT THE DAY IS NOT OVER YET AND THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE! GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING CONVECTIVE VORT WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME...BUT FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OF THAT INFLUENCE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF ZONES BECOMING
GRADUALLY MORE CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE SUNSET. LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY SIMULATION DEPICTS A LOOSE
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ORGANIZING NEAR I-20 OVER NORTHERN LA
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN PROGRESSING TOWARD CENTRAL MS
BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THIS SOLUTION HAS SOME
MERIT...BUT IT IS MORE IMPORTANT TO NOTE THE SLIGHTLY PERTURBED
NORTHWEST FLOW SCENARIO REMAINING IN PLACE UNTIL LATE TOMORROW IS
CONDUCIVE FOR LOOSELY ORGANIZED AND SOMETIMES RANDOM CONVECTION.

AS MENTIONED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT
LEAST A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT AND UNTIL LATER TUESDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
ZONES...BUT EVEN THERE POPS REALLY NOT GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED DOWNPOURS
TODAY...ALTHOUGH I AM NOT ANTICIPATING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BEING
NEEDED ANYWHERE.

FOR TOMORROW THE MAIN STORY WILL LIKELY BE MOTHER NATURE STARTING TO
TURN UP THE THERMOSTAT. OF COURSE WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
ANY STORMS BY LATER ON IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF MS. MAV HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 93-96 RANGE LOOK
ON TRACK WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE CENTURY MARK IN A GOOD DEAL OF SPOTS.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD RIGHT ATOP THE
REGION...INCREASING HEAT AND LIMITING ANY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 105 DEGREES.

AT THIS POINT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKING QUITE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
IN TERMS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
EVEN MORE REMOTE. CONSIDERING THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST
STRETCH OF THE SUMMER SO FAR WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND STARTING
MENTIONING LIMITED RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT IN THE HWO FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THE COMING WEEKEND MIGHT HOLD A
LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL FOR ACTUALLY REACHING FULL HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO BEGIN
THAT OFFICIAL ADVERTISEMENT.

MODELS TODAY CONTINUED TO PAINT THE PICTURE OF THE DOGGED RIDGE
STARTING TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO GOOD
RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUT THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS A WAYS OFF AND WE MUST BRACE FOR THE HOT
STRETCH TO COME. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO EASTERN MS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
REDUCED CIGS/VSYBS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OTHERWISE.
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  94  73  96 /  25  21   5  10
MERIDIAN      71  94  71  97 /  29  23   5   7
VICKSBURG     71  94  72  96 /  20  16   5  11
HATTIESBURG   75  95  74  96 /  15  18   8  17
NATCHEZ       74  93  73  94 /  14  15   6  17
GREENVILLE    72  96  74  97 /  23  20   5   7
GREENWOOD     71  94  73  96 /  28  24   5   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/EC







000
FXUS64 KJAN 181529 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1030 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014


.DISCUSSION...COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS COMING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING HAS DECREASED GREATLY IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IS NOW STRUGGLING TO BODILY
MOVE TOWARD THE HEART OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS BEHAVIOR IS NOT
ATYPICAL OF COMPLEXES GOING THROUGH THE EXPECTED DIURNAL MINIMUM IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

WHAT WE DO EXPECT IS THAT THE CONVECTIVE VORT ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND PROMOTE DECENT LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST
ZONES AND ALONG AND THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WHILE THE COMPLEX WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE ARKLAMISS DELTA ANTICIPATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
THIS AFTERNOON STILL TO RESULT IN A WET DAY FOR MANY FOLKS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXISTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-20...SO THAT THREAT WILL BE KEPT AS A MENTION IN THE HWO.
AT THIS POINT ANY FLOODING THAT MATERIALIZES SHOULD BE ISOLATED
ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

FINALLY...MORNING SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST MORE THAN A VERY MINOR
THREAT FOR A STRAY SEVERE STORM GIVEN POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATED
LIMITATIONS ON INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES BUMPED DOWN A TOUCH IN
NORTHERN ZONES BUT KEPT THE SAME IN SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE
HEAT...INCLUDING PEAK HEAT INDICES NEAR THE CENTURY MARK...WILL BE
FOCUSED FOR TODAY. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. BASED
ON THE CURRENT SPEED OF THIS FEATURE...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
HAVE TIME TO HEAT UP SOME BEFORE STORMS MOVE IN. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE NORTHWEST DELTA AREAS AROUND KGLH WHERE STORM
IMPACT WILL BE DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS.

THE 00Z GFS INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.25 INCHES
WHICH COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTION COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTH TAPERING
TO CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WITH SOME STORM ACTIVITY LINGERING LATER
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. A STORM OR TWO COULD REFIRE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH LESS ORGANIZED THAN TODAY.

HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY DUE TO UNCERTAIN STORM TIMING. THE MAXES
MAY BE REACHED IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THE NORTHWEST
DELTA REACHES ITS HIGH LATE IN THE DAY AFTER STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST
OF THE AREA. WITH MORE SUN AND FEWER STORMS ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. HOWEVER DID CUT THEM A DEGREE
OR TWO BASED ON EXPECTED RAINFALL TODAY. /SW/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOTTER AND DRIER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. COME WEDNESDAY RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE NOSING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A RATHER
MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWS AROUND AN INCH AND A
HALF AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NORMAL AFTERNOON
HIGHS ARE AROUND 92F AND TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S AT
MOST SITES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN DURING
THE AFTERNOON LOWERING DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS BUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART
OF THE WEAK HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED. THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER OUR REGION BY THURSDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED
TO INCREASE FROM 590DAM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO 595DAM BY THURSDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO MENTION OF RAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FRIDAY MAY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WERE AMONG THE HIGHEST GFSMOS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HAVE OPTED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE IN
LINE WITH ECMWF MOS BUT UPPER 90S LOOK REASONABLE. THE MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX VALUES DEPEND ON HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE TEMPERATURES AND
MODELS STILL SUGGEST SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MIX INTO THE 60S DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOLDING HEAT VALUES AROUND 105. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED BY THE END OF THE WEEK IF GREATER HUMIDITY CAN BE MAINTAINED
INTO THE AFTERNOONS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AND BE WEAKER BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS
DUE ALSO IN PART TO THE SEA BREEZE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BRING PERIODS OF
REDUCED VSBY/CIGS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OTHERWISE.
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       89  72  94  73 /  65  20  12   6
MERIDIAN      91  70  95  71 /  67  34  17   6
VICKSBURG     90  72  93  70 /  60  14   9   6
HATTIESBURG   94  74  95  74 /  60  27  21  12
NATCHEZ       91  74  93  73 /  60  20  18  12
GREENVILLE    89  73  94  74 /  73  11  12   5
GREENWOOD     86  72  95  74 /  60  14  16   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/EC/SW/22







000
FXUS64 KJAN 181529 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1030 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014


.DISCUSSION...COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS COMING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING HAS DECREASED GREATLY IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IS NOW STRUGGLING TO BODILY
MOVE TOWARD THE HEART OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS BEHAVIOR IS NOT
ATYPICAL OF COMPLEXES GOING THROUGH THE EXPECTED DIURNAL MINIMUM IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

WHAT WE DO EXPECT IS THAT THE CONVECTIVE VORT ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND PROMOTE DECENT LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST
ZONES AND ALONG AND THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WHILE THE COMPLEX WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE ARKLAMISS DELTA ANTICIPATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
THIS AFTERNOON STILL TO RESULT IN A WET DAY FOR MANY FOLKS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXISTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-20...SO THAT THREAT WILL BE KEPT AS A MENTION IN THE HWO.
AT THIS POINT ANY FLOODING THAT MATERIALIZES SHOULD BE ISOLATED
ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

FINALLY...MORNING SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST MORE THAN A VERY MINOR
THREAT FOR A STRAY SEVERE STORM GIVEN POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATED
LIMITATIONS ON INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES BUMPED DOWN A TOUCH IN
NORTHERN ZONES BUT KEPT THE SAME IN SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE
HEAT...INCLUDING PEAK HEAT INDICES NEAR THE CENTURY MARK...WILL BE
FOCUSED FOR TODAY. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. BASED
ON THE CURRENT SPEED OF THIS FEATURE...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
HAVE TIME TO HEAT UP SOME BEFORE STORMS MOVE IN. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE NORTHWEST DELTA AREAS AROUND KGLH WHERE STORM
IMPACT WILL BE DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS.

THE 00Z GFS INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.25 INCHES
WHICH COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTION COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTH TAPERING
TO CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WITH SOME STORM ACTIVITY LINGERING LATER
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. A STORM OR TWO COULD REFIRE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH LESS ORGANIZED THAN TODAY.

HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY DUE TO UNCERTAIN STORM TIMING. THE MAXES
MAY BE REACHED IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THE NORTHWEST
DELTA REACHES ITS HIGH LATE IN THE DAY AFTER STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST
OF THE AREA. WITH MORE SUN AND FEWER STORMS ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. HOWEVER DID CUT THEM A DEGREE
OR TWO BASED ON EXPECTED RAINFALL TODAY. /SW/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOTTER AND DRIER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. COME WEDNESDAY RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE NOSING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A RATHER
MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWS AROUND AN INCH AND A
HALF AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NORMAL AFTERNOON
HIGHS ARE AROUND 92F AND TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S AT
MOST SITES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN DURING
THE AFTERNOON LOWERING DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS BUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART
OF THE WEAK HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED. THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER OUR REGION BY THURSDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED
TO INCREASE FROM 590DAM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO 595DAM BY THURSDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO MENTION OF RAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FRIDAY MAY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WERE AMONG THE HIGHEST GFSMOS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HAVE OPTED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE IN
LINE WITH ECMWF MOS BUT UPPER 90S LOOK REASONABLE. THE MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX VALUES DEPEND ON HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE TEMPERATURES AND
MODELS STILL SUGGEST SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MIX INTO THE 60S DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOLDING HEAT VALUES AROUND 105. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED BY THE END OF THE WEEK IF GREATER HUMIDITY CAN BE MAINTAINED
INTO THE AFTERNOONS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AND BE WEAKER BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS
DUE ALSO IN PART TO THE SEA BREEZE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BRING PERIODS OF
REDUCED VSBY/CIGS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OTHERWISE.
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       89  72  94  73 /  65  20  12   6
MERIDIAN      91  70  95  71 /  67  34  17   6
VICKSBURG     90  72  93  70 /  60  14   9   6
HATTIESBURG   94  74  95  74 /  60  27  21  12
NATCHEZ       91  74  93  73 /  60  20  18  12
GREENVILLE    89  73  94  74 /  73  11  12   5
GREENWOOD     86  72  95  74 /  60  14  16   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/EC/SW/22






000
FXUS64 KJAN 180922
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
422 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. BASED
ON THE CURRENT SPEED OF THIS FEATURE...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
HAVE TIME TO HEAT UP SOME BEFORE STORMS MOVE IN. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE NORTHWEST DELTA AREAS AROUND KGLH WHERE STORM
IMPACT WILL BE DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS.

THE 00Z GFS INDICATES PRECIPATABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.25 INCHES
WHICH COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTION COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTH TAPERING TO
CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST THIS EVENING WITH SOME STORM ACTIVITY LINGERING LATER ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. A STORM OR TWO COULD REFIRE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH LESS ORGANIZED THAN TODAY.

HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY DUE TO UNCERTAIN STORM TIMING. THE MAXES
MAY BE REACHED IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THE NORTHWEST
DELTA REACHES ITS HIGH LATE IN THE DAY AFTER STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST
OF THE AREA. WITH MORE SUN AND FEWER STORMS ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. HOWEVER DID CUT THEM A DEGREE
OR TWO BASED ON EXPECTED RAINFALL TODAY. /SW/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOTTER AND DRIER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. COME WEDNESDAY RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE NOSING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A RATHER
MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWS AROUND AN INCH AND A
HALF AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NORMAL AFTERNOON
HIGHS ARE AROUND 92F AND TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S AT
MOST SITES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN DURING
THE AFTERNOON LOWERING DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS BUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART
OF THE WEAK HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED. THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER OUR REGION BY THURSDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED
TO INCREASE FROM 590DAM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO 595DAM BY THURSDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO MENTION OF RAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FRIDAY MAY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WERE AMONG THE HIGHEST GFSMOS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HAVE OPTED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE IN
LINE WITH ECMWF MOS BUT UPPER 90S LOOK REASONABLE. THE MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX VALUES DEPEND ON HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE TEMPERATURES AND
MODELS STILL SUGGEST SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MIX INTO THE 60S DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOLDING HEAT VALUES AROUND 105. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED BY THE END OF THE WEEK IF GREATER HUMIDITY CAN BE MAINTAINED
INTO THE AFTERNOONS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AND BE WEAKER BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS
DUE ALSO IN PART TO THE SEA BREEZE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD/DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A MID LEVEL FEATURE
TRAVERSES THE AREA. MOST TAF SITES WILL LIKELY HAVE STORMS WITH
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIGS. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       87  73  93  74 /  58  36  20  10
MERIDIAN      91  71  93  70 /  44  44  32  11
VICKSBURG     87  73  93  71 /  67  30  12   9
HATTIESBURG   94  74  94  73 /  44  20  30  17
NATCHEZ       90  73  93  72 /  57  19  18  11
GREENVILLE    85  72  93  74 /  75  26  11   9
GREENWOOD     85  72  93  73 /  74  42  18   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KJAN 180922
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
422 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. BASED
ON THE CURRENT SPEED OF THIS FEATURE...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
HAVE TIME TO HEAT UP SOME BEFORE STORMS MOVE IN. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE NORTHWEST DELTA AREAS AROUND KGLH WHERE STORM
IMPACT WILL BE DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS.

THE 00Z GFS INDICATES PRECIPATABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.25 INCHES
WHICH COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTION COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTH TAPERING TO
CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST THIS EVENING WITH SOME STORM ACTIVITY LINGERING LATER ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. A STORM OR TWO COULD REFIRE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH LESS ORGANIZED THAN TODAY.

HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY DUE TO UNCERTAIN STORM TIMING. THE MAXES
MAY BE REACHED IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THE NORTHWEST
DELTA REACHES ITS HIGH LATE IN THE DAY AFTER STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST
OF THE AREA. WITH MORE SUN AND FEWER STORMS ON TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. HOWEVER DID CUT THEM A DEGREE
OR TWO BASED ON EXPECTED RAINFALL TODAY. /SW/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOTTER AND DRIER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. COME WEDNESDAY RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE NOSING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A RATHER
MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PWS AROUND AN INCH AND A
HALF AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NORMAL AFTERNOON
HIGHS ARE AROUND 92F AND TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S AT
MOST SITES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRIER AIR WILL MIX DOWN DURING
THE AFTERNOON LOWERING DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 105
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS BUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART
OF THE WEAK HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED. THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER OUR REGION BY THURSDAY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED
TO INCREASE FROM 590DAM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO 595DAM BY THURSDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO MENTION OF RAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FRIDAY MAY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WERE AMONG THE HIGHEST GFSMOS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. HAVE OPTED TO GO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE IN
LINE WITH ECMWF MOS BUT UPPER 90S LOOK REASONABLE. THE MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX VALUES DEPEND ON HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE TEMPERATURES AND
MODELS STILL SUGGEST SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MIX INTO THE 60S DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOLDING HEAT VALUES AROUND 105. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED BY THE END OF THE WEEK IF GREATER HUMIDITY CAN BE MAINTAINED
INTO THE AFTERNOONS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AND BE WEAKER BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS
DUE ALSO IN PART TO THE SEA BREEZE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD/DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A MID LEVEL FEATURE
TRAVERSES THE AREA. MOST TAF SITES WILL LIKELY HAVE STORMS WITH
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIGS. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       87  73  93  74 /  58  36  20  10
MERIDIAN      91  71  93  70 /  44  44  32  11
VICKSBURG     87  73  93  71 /  67  30  12   9
HATTIESBURG   94  74  94  73 /  44  20  30  17
NATCHEZ       90  73  93  72 /  57  19  18  11
GREENVILLE    85  72  93  74 /  75  26  11   9
GREENWOOD     85  72  93  73 /  74  42  18   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 180154 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
854 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS/STORMS DWINDLED ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS...WHILE SOME STORMS
CURRENTLY ARE IN NRN MS. EXPECT THE REST OF THE EVENING TO REMAIN
QUIET BEFORE SOME STORMS COULD MOVE BACK IN CLOSER TO 12Z INTO THE
FAR NW DELTA. A STRONGER S/WV IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOPED IN THE
STALLED TROUGH JUST THE THE W...AND SLOWLY PROPAGATE TO THE E/NE
BEGINNING TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LOW
LEVEL JET IN THE NW DELTA. THUS...LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER
10Z IN THE FAR NW BEFORE HIGHER CHANCES COME AFTER 12Z. LOWS LOOK
GOOD OVERNIGHT AND EXPECTING TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH FOG. ONLY
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL COULD GET SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY GRIDS TO CURRENT
TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO EXIST FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
NIGHT...THEN A TREND TOWARD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL TAKE PLACE
BETWEEN 09-11Z. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
POTENTIAL BETWEEN 12-14Z LIKELY OVER THE NW/N AREAS INITIALLY. THE
INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE TAF PERIOD. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING SOUTHERN HALF OF ZONES CURRENTLY...WITH EARLIER
SLOW-MOVING AND SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON THE EDGE OF NORTHERN
ZONES LARGER DISSIPATED. THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE REGION BUT WILL BE MORE
LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION SHOULD
DIE OFF IN TYPICAL FASHION THIS EVENING IN MOST AREAS...BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO (OR DEVELOP IN)
NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. THIS POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY IS
TIED TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGING BACK TO THE WEST AND HELPING
TO INSTIGATE A MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
ARKLAMISS DELTA. MODEL CONSENSUS TODAY GENERALLY WANTS TO INITIATE A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MOVE IT VERY
SLOWLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF OF ZONES TOMORROW. POTENTIAL FOR
FAST STORM CLUSTER MOVEMENT OR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW IN THIS
SCENARIO. IN FACT...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER GIVES THE IMPRESSION BACK BUILDING AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE THE LARGEST WORRY. SOME
MODELS STILL HAVE BACKBUILDING AND REGENERATING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HANGING ON IN MY NORTHEAST ZONES IN MS WELL INTO TOMORROW
EVENING (AND IF THINGS PLAY OUT IN THIS MANNER THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL INCREASE). I BOOSTED POPS AND LOWERED TEMPS
WITH RESPECT TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW...MAINLY TRENDING TOWARD
THE EURO.

BY TUESDAY THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TIED TO THE INCLEMENT WEATHER
WILL BE SHIFTING FIRMLY EAST OF THE REGION AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY STILL AFFECT
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY
DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND ITS
SUBSIDENT EFFECTS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. MAV HIGH TEMPS LOWERED A
BIT FOR TUESDAY WITH THE THOUGHT THAT WET GROUND AND MORNING CLOUDS
WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO HEAT UP UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY IN MANY AREAS.

AS FAR AS HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS CONCERNED...WE DID INCLUDE A LIMITED
FLOODING THREAT ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT
YET STRONGLY CONSIDERED FOR THESE AREAS BECAUSE ANY FLOODING THAT
OCCURS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE VERY LOCALIZED DUE TO RATHER DRY
NATURE OF ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. THE NIGHT SHIFTS WILL MONITOR
TRENDS IN MODELS AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IF CONFIDENCE OF
IMPACT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN INCREASES. /BB/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE SINKING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND PROHIBIT ANY STORMS AT NIGHT.

THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAT WITH HIGHS
EACH DAY IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES. THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF MID 90S
HIGHS SO FAR THIS SUMMER. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  87  73  93 /  12  58  36  20
MERIDIAN      72  91  71  93 /  11  44  44  32
VICKSBURG     74  87  73  93 /  14  67  30  12
HATTIESBURG   74  94  74  94 /  10  44  20  30
NATCHEZ       73  90  73  93 /  12  57  19  18
GREENVILLE    74  85  72  93 /  16  75  26  11
GREENWOOD     74  85  72  93 /  15  74  42  18

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/CME/BB/SW








000
FXUS64 KJAN 180154 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
854 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS/STORMS DWINDLED ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS...WHILE SOME STORMS
CURRENTLY ARE IN NRN MS. EXPECT THE REST OF THE EVENING TO REMAIN
QUIET BEFORE SOME STORMS COULD MOVE BACK IN CLOSER TO 12Z INTO THE
FAR NW DELTA. A STRONGER S/WV IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOPED IN THE
STALLED TROUGH JUST THE THE W...AND SLOWLY PROPAGATE TO THE E/NE
BEGINNING TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LOW
LEVEL JET IN THE NW DELTA. THUS...LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER
10Z IN THE FAR NW BEFORE HIGHER CHANCES COME AFTER 12Z. LOWS LOOK
GOOD OVERNIGHT AND EXPECTING TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH FOG. ONLY
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL COULD GET SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY GRIDS TO CURRENT
TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO EXIST FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
NIGHT...THEN A TREND TOWARD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL TAKE PLACE
BETWEEN 09-11Z. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
POTENTIAL BETWEEN 12-14Z LIKELY OVER THE NW/N AREAS INITIALLY. THE
INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE TAF PERIOD. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING SOUTHERN HALF OF ZONES CURRENTLY...WITH EARLIER
SLOW-MOVING AND SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON THE EDGE OF NORTHERN
ZONES LARGER DISSIPATED. THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE REGION BUT WILL BE MORE
LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION SHOULD
DIE OFF IN TYPICAL FASHION THIS EVENING IN MOST AREAS...BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO (OR DEVELOP IN)
NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. THIS POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY IS
TIED TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGING BACK TO THE WEST AND HELPING
TO INSTIGATE A MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
ARKLAMISS DELTA. MODEL CONSENSUS TODAY GENERALLY WANTS TO INITIATE A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MOVE IT VERY
SLOWLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF OF ZONES TOMORROW. POTENTIAL FOR
FAST STORM CLUSTER MOVEMENT OR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW IN THIS
SCENARIO. IN FACT...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER GIVES THE IMPRESSION BACK BUILDING AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE THE LARGEST WORRY. SOME
MODELS STILL HAVE BACKBUILDING AND REGENERATING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HANGING ON IN MY NORTHEAST ZONES IN MS WELL INTO TOMORROW
EVENING (AND IF THINGS PLAY OUT IN THIS MANNER THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL INCREASE). I BOOSTED POPS AND LOWERED TEMPS
WITH RESPECT TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW...MAINLY TRENDING TOWARD
THE EURO.

BY TUESDAY THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TIED TO THE INCLEMENT WEATHER
WILL BE SHIFTING FIRMLY EAST OF THE REGION AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY STILL AFFECT
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY
DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND ITS
SUBSIDENT EFFECTS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. MAV HIGH TEMPS LOWERED A
BIT FOR TUESDAY WITH THE THOUGHT THAT WET GROUND AND MORNING CLOUDS
WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO HEAT UP UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY IN MANY AREAS.

AS FAR AS HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS CONCERNED...WE DID INCLUDE A LIMITED
FLOODING THREAT ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT
YET STRONGLY CONSIDERED FOR THESE AREAS BECAUSE ANY FLOODING THAT
OCCURS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE VERY LOCALIZED DUE TO RATHER DRY
NATURE OF ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. THE NIGHT SHIFTS WILL MONITOR
TRENDS IN MODELS AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IF CONFIDENCE OF
IMPACT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN INCREASES. /BB/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE SINKING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND PROHIBIT ANY STORMS AT NIGHT.

THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAT WITH HIGHS
EACH DAY IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES. THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF MID 90S
HIGHS SO FAR THIS SUMMER. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  87  73  93 /  12  58  36  20
MERIDIAN      72  91  71  93 /  11  44  44  32
VICKSBURG     74  87  73  93 /  14  67  30  12
HATTIESBURG   74  94  74  94 /  10  44  20  30
NATCHEZ       73  90  73  93 /  12  57  19  18
GREENVILLE    74  85  72  93 /  16  75  26  11
GREENWOOD     74  85  72  93 /  15  74  42  18

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/CME/BB/SW







000
FXUS64 KJAN 172056
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
355 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING SOUTHERN HALF OF ZONES CURRENTLY...WITH EARLIER
SLOW-MOVING AND SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON THE EDGE OF NORTHERN
ZONES LARGER DISSIPATED. THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE REGION BUT WILL BE MORE
LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION SHOULD
DIE OFF IN TYPICAL FASHION THIS EVENING IN MOST AREAS...BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO (OR DEVELOP IN)
NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. THIS POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY IS
TIED TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGING BACK TO THE WEST AND HELPING
TO INSTIGATE A MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
ARKLAMISS DELTA. MODEL CONSENSUS TODAY GENERALLY WANTS TO INITIATE A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MOVE IT VERY
SLOWLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF OF ZONES TOMORROW. POTENTIAL FOR
FAST STORM CLUSTER MOVEMENT OR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW IN THIS
SCENARIO. IN FACT...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER GIVES THE IMPRESSION BACK BUILDING AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE THE LARGEST WORRY. SOME
MODELS STILL HAVE BACKBUILDING AND REGENERATING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HANGING ON IN MY NORTHEAST ZONES IN MS WELL INTO TOMORROW
EVENING (AND IF THINGS PLAY OUT IN THIS MANNER THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL INCREASE). I BOOSTED POPS AND LOWERED TEMPS
WITH RESPECT TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW...MAINLY TRENDING TOWARD
THE EURO.

BY TUESDAY THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TIED TO THE INCLEMENT WEATHER
WILL BE SHIFTING FIRMLY EAST OF THE REGION AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY STILL AFFECT
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY
DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND ITS
SUBSIDENT EFFECTS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. MAV HIGH TEMPS LOWERED A
BIT FOR TUESDAY WITH THE THOUGHT THAT WET GROUND AND MORNING CLOUDS
WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO HEAT UP UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY IN MANY AREAS.

AS FAR AS HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS CONCERNED...WE DID INCLUDE A LIMITED
FLOODING THREAT ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT
YET STRONGLY CONSIDERED FOR THESE AREAS BECAUSE ANY FLOODING THAT
OCCURS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE VERY LOCALIZED DUE TO RATHER DRY
NATURE OF ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. THE NIGHT SHIFTS WILL MONITOR
TRENDS IN MODELS AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IF CONFIDENCE OF
IMPACT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN INCREASES. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE SINKING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND PROHIBIT ANY STORMS AT NIGHT.

THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAT WITH HIGHS
EACH DAY IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES. THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF MID 90S
HIGHS SO FAR THIS SUMMER. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
PERSISTENCE FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND FORECAST IFR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...AND SOME FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR TSRA SHOULD BE AT HBG THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THEN THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT GLH/GWO
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.
OVERALL...MONDAY WILL BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY AND EXPECT GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE JAN/MEI CORRIDOR. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  87  73  93 /  21  58  36  20
MERIDIAN      72  91  71  93 /  15  44  44  32
VICKSBURG     74  87  73  93 /  25  67  30  12
HATTIESBURG   74  94  74  94 /  15  44  20  30
NATCHEZ       74  90  73  93 /  19  57  19  18
GREENVILLE    74  85  72  93 /  30  75  26  11
GREENWOOD     74  85  72  93 /  29  74  42  18

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/EC/SW






000
FXUS64 KJAN 172056
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
355 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING SOUTHERN HALF OF ZONES CURRENTLY...WITH EARLIER
SLOW-MOVING AND SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON THE EDGE OF NORTHERN
ZONES LARGER DISSIPATED. THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE REGION BUT WILL BE MORE
LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION SHOULD
DIE OFF IN TYPICAL FASHION THIS EVENING IN MOST AREAS...BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO (OR DEVELOP IN)
NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. THIS POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY IS
TIED TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGING BACK TO THE WEST AND HELPING
TO INSTIGATE A MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
ARKLAMISS DELTA. MODEL CONSENSUS TODAY GENERALLY WANTS TO INITIATE A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MOVE IT VERY
SLOWLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF OF ZONES TOMORROW. POTENTIAL FOR
FAST STORM CLUSTER MOVEMENT OR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW IN THIS
SCENARIO. IN FACT...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER GIVES THE IMPRESSION BACK BUILDING AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE THE LARGEST WORRY. SOME
MODELS STILL HAVE BACKBUILDING AND REGENERATING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HANGING ON IN MY NORTHEAST ZONES IN MS WELL INTO TOMORROW
EVENING (AND IF THINGS PLAY OUT IN THIS MANNER THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL INCREASE). I BOOSTED POPS AND LOWERED TEMPS
WITH RESPECT TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW...MAINLY TRENDING TOWARD
THE EURO.

BY TUESDAY THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TIED TO THE INCLEMENT WEATHER
WILL BE SHIFTING FIRMLY EAST OF THE REGION AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY STILL AFFECT
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY
DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND ITS
SUBSIDENT EFFECTS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. MAV HIGH TEMPS LOWERED A
BIT FOR TUESDAY WITH THE THOUGHT THAT WET GROUND AND MORNING CLOUDS
WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO HEAT UP UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY IN MANY AREAS.

AS FAR AS HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS CONCERNED...WE DID INCLUDE A LIMITED
FLOODING THREAT ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT
YET STRONGLY CONSIDERED FOR THESE AREAS BECAUSE ANY FLOODING THAT
OCCURS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE VERY LOCALIZED DUE TO RATHER DRY
NATURE OF ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. THE NIGHT SHIFTS WILL MONITOR
TRENDS IN MODELS AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IF CONFIDENCE OF
IMPACT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN INCREASES. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE SINKING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND PROHIBIT ANY STORMS AT NIGHT.

THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAT WITH HIGHS
EACH DAY IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES. THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF MID 90S
HIGHS SO FAR THIS SUMMER. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
PERSISTENCE FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND FORECAST IFR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...AND SOME FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR TSRA SHOULD BE AT HBG THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THEN THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT GLH/GWO
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.
OVERALL...MONDAY WILL BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY AND EXPECT GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE JAN/MEI CORRIDOR. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  87  73  93 /  21  58  36  20
MERIDIAN      72  91  71  93 /  15  44  44  32
VICKSBURG     74  87  73  93 /  25  67  30  12
HATTIESBURG   74  94  74  94 /  15  44  20  30
NATCHEZ       74  90  73  93 /  19  57  19  18
GREENVILLE    74  85  72  93 /  30  75  26  11
GREENWOOD     74  85  72  93 /  29  74  42  18

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/EC/SW







000
FXUS64 KJAN 171516 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1015 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD MOSTLY ON TRACK. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHERN EXTENT OF INTENSE AND COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE IS CLIPPING OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES THIS
MORNING...PROMPTING ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TO FUEL A
SOLID BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
NORTHEAST THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH AND TN VALLEY. THIS
SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION POSES SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT...BUT THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CONFINES OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...EXPECT OUTFLOW RELATED TO THIS ACTIVITY TO SNEAK MORE
FIRMLY INTO NORTHERN ZONES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND HELP TO FUEL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER
SOUTH...AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE PINE BELT COULD
GET SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING EARLY
NEAR HBG. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE A MAJORITY OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE SOUTH TO WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON TO FIRE UP. THAT
LEAVES THE PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT OF ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AFFECTING
CENTRAL ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOOKING VERY MUCH ON TRACK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY PEAK IN THE LOWER 90S ALTHOUGH THE
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY TODAY WILL OCCASIONALLY CAUSE HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO TOP OUT AROUND THE CENTURY MARK.

FINALLY...MORNING REGIONAL SOUNDING ANALYSIS REVEALS ONLY A VERY
MARGINAL RISK FOR MICROBURSTS OR LOCALIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY FROM
TODAYS CONVECTION...WHICH IS NOT WORTH AN INCLUSION IN THE HWO. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
RETURNED ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AS 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS IS
SHOWING LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WERE SEEN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS
SOMEWHAT OF A SEA BREEZE MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH.

GFS/ECMWF ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ATTENDANT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SSE OUT OF THE MID MS VALLEY
TOWARD THE CWA TODAY. WHILE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STAY TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA...INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE TOP OF
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS TODAY AND
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF MONDAY.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL BRING A GOOD
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LA/MS COASTAL AREAS PROMOTING SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WITH THE SENSIBLE WEATHER TODAY OCCURRING AT OPPOSITE ENDS OF THE
CWA...CENTRAL SECTIONS WILL LOOK TO ONLY RECEIVE ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS FROM HEATING OR THAT CAN PROPAGATE IN FROM THE NORTH OR
SOUTH. THIS IS WHERE POPS WILL BE THE LEAST.

MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE LOW/MID 20S SHOULD
KEEP ANY CONVECTION FROM GETTING TOO INTENSE./26/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE SINKING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND PROHIBIT ANY STORMS AT NIGHT.

THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAT WITH HIGHS
EACH DAY IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES. THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF MID 90S
HIGHS SO FAR THIS SUMMER. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING...BUT
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CU FIELDS RISING TO ~5000 FT WITH CONTINUED HEATING. GIVEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FOR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND FORECAST IFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
TSRA SHOULD BE AT HBG THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT GLH/GWO TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. OVERALL...MONDAY WILL
BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY AND EXPECT GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA AT ALL
SITES BY AFTN. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  73  91  74 /  19  20  40  18
MERIDIAN      93  72  92  72 /  19  16  41  22
VICKSBURG     92  74  92  73 /  18  28  34  15
HATTIESBURG   94  74  93  75 /  34  16  44  20
NATCHEZ       93  75  92  75 /  29  17  37  17
GREENVILLE    92  74  90  73 /  25  43  38  14
GREENWOOD     92  74  90  73 /  29  38  46  16

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/EC/26/SW







000
FXUS64 KJAN 171516 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1015 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD MOSTLY ON TRACK. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHERN EXTENT OF INTENSE AND COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE IS CLIPPING OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES THIS
MORNING...PROMPTING ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TO FUEL A
SOLID BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM THE ARKLAMISS DELTA
NORTHEAST THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH AND TN VALLEY. THIS
SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION POSES SOME HEAVY RAIN THREAT...BUT THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CONFINES OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...EXPECT OUTFLOW RELATED TO THIS ACTIVITY TO SNEAK MORE
FIRMLY INTO NORTHERN ZONES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND HELP TO FUEL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER
SOUTH...AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE PINE BELT COULD
GET SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING EARLY
NEAR HBG. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE A MAJORITY OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE SOUTH TO WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON TO FIRE UP. THAT
LEAVES THE PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT OF ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AFFECTING
CENTRAL ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOOKING VERY MUCH ON TRACK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY PEAK IN THE LOWER 90S ALTHOUGH THE
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY TODAY WILL OCCASIONALLY CAUSE HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO TOP OUT AROUND THE CENTURY MARK.

FINALLY...MORNING REGIONAL SOUNDING ANALYSIS REVEALS ONLY A VERY
MARGINAL RISK FOR MICROBURSTS OR LOCALIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY FROM
TODAYS CONVECTION...WHICH IS NOT WORTH AN INCLUSION IN THE HWO. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
RETURNED ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AS 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS IS
SHOWING LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WERE SEEN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS
SOMEWHAT OF A SEA BREEZE MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH.

GFS/ECMWF ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ATTENDANT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SSE OUT OF THE MID MS VALLEY
TOWARD THE CWA TODAY. WHILE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STAY TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA...INCREASING COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE TOP OF
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS TODAY AND
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF MONDAY.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL BRING A GOOD
ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LA/MS COASTAL AREAS PROMOTING SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WITH THE SENSIBLE WEATHER TODAY OCCURRING AT OPPOSITE ENDS OF THE
CWA...CENTRAL SECTIONS WILL LOOK TO ONLY RECEIVE ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS FROM HEATING OR THAT CAN PROPAGATE IN FROM THE NORTH OR
SOUTH. THIS IS WHERE POPS WILL BE THE LEAST.

MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE LOW/MID 20S SHOULD
KEEP ANY CONVECTION FROM GETTING TOO INTENSE./26/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE SINKING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND PROHIBIT ANY STORMS AT NIGHT.

THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAT WITH HIGHS
EACH DAY IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES. THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF MID 90S
HIGHS SO FAR THIS SUMMER. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING...BUT
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CU FIELDS RISING TO ~5000 FT WITH CONTINUED HEATING. GIVEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FOR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND FORECAST IFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
TSRA SHOULD BE AT HBG THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT GLH/GWO TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. OVERALL...MONDAY WILL
BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY AND EXPECT GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA AT ALL
SITES BY AFTN. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  73  91  74 /  19  20  40  18
MERIDIAN      93  72  92  72 /  19  16  41  22
VICKSBURG     92  74  92  73 /  18  28  34  15
HATTIESBURG   94  74  93  75 /  34  16  44  20
NATCHEZ       93  75  92  75 /  29  17  37  17
GREENVILLE    92  74  90  73 /  25  43  38  14
GREENWOOD     92  74  90  73 /  29  38  46  16

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/EC/26/SW






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