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000
FXUS64 KJAN 271002
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
402 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS TODAY AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPERATURES COOL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
FREEZING IN THE DELTA TO THE UPPER 40S IN HATTIESBURG. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 20S AND
LOW 30S.

THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO
BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND THUS MORE NEUTRAL ADVECTION AND WITH SOME
SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.
THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. LOWS WILL ALSO BE WARMER RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE
DELTA TO NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTH./15/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH
TUESDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE LARGE >1040MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD RESULTING IN A WEAK RETURN
FLOW OVER OUR CWA. A LARGE CLOSED LOW WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER
CALIFORNIA INDUCING MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A SLOW INCREASE IN DEEP
MOISTURE SUNDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS SUNDAY AIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. MODELS SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER OUR SOUTHWEST
TO PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO SUNDAY A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL RACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL HELP SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
DROP A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT PROLONGING RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY OUR FLOW
ALOFT WILL BACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND STALL AS IT
QUICKLY LOOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE STALLED FRONT WILL SERVE
TO FOCUS CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH TUESDAY STILL
LOOKING LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHERE AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CLIMB UP INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON PWS WILL BE BACK NEAR AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT.
THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE WHOLE AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS AND SUPPORT A
SECOND SURFACE LOW THAT TRACK NORTHEAST AND DROP ANOTHER COLD FRONT
INTO OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY NOON
THEN SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY EVENING. MODELS SHOW HEAVIEST QPF POST
FRONTAL WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT MLCAPE APPROACHES 1000J/KG IN A
STRONGLY SHEARED(ALTHOUGH UNIDIRECTIONAL) ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE MEAN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SINCE
THE WEEKEND WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
HELPING TO BRING A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION.
THERE ARE LARGE STANDARD DEVIATIONS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT A RETURN TO COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BELOW FREEZING MORNING LOWS LOOK TO BE
INSTORE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. EXPECT JAN/HKS/MEI/HBG
TO BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT PERSISTANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS AT GWO/GLH/GTR THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY 7-10KTS THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD BECOMING EASTERLY BY EARLY SATURDAY./15/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       44  30  58  46 /   2   6   8  16
MERIDIAN      46  28  57  45 /   3   4   8  16
VICKSBURG     40  29  56  46 /   4  10   8  16
HATTIESBURG   49  31  61  48 /   4   4   7  16
NATCHEZ       45  30  60  49 /   3   7   8  16
GREENVILLE    33  26  50  39 /   6  12  10  16
GREENWOOD     36  26  53  41 /   4   9  10  16

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

15/MME/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 270351
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
951 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS ARE
NECESSARY THIS EVENING. AS EXPECTED...LOW STRATUS IS SLOW TO ERODE
AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY INITIALLY. BUT INCREASING
COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FORECAST LOWS TO STILL BE MET.
/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...HAVE KEPT AN ABUNDANCE OF MVFR CATEGORY CIGS IN FORECAST
DUE TO CONSIDERABLE STRATUS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE CLOUD DECK WILL
BREAK UP AND ERODE MORE THAN FORECAST. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...A QUIETER STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO
SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY/MID
NEXT WEEK...BUT A WETTER PATTERN WILL ALSO EXIST.

FOR THE TONIGHT INTO FRI...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING
THROUGH THE CWA AND IS NOTED ON VIS IMAGERY BY A SOLID LOW STRATUS
DECK. LOOK FOR THIS TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA WITH SOME OF THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. I DON`T  EXPECT ALL OF THE AREA TO
CLEAR AND THERE SHOULD BE POCKETS OF PESKY CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAKE
FOR A CHALLENGING SKY FORECAST. WITH STRONG CAA MOVING IN WITH
INCREASING SFC PRESSURES...LOOK FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT TO NOT DROP OFF
A GREAT DEAL AND NOT REACH THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE AIRMASS. NE SFC
WINDS WILL EXIST ON FRI WITH SOME WEAK CAA STILL ONGOING. TYPICALLY
WITH THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING...I WOULD OFTEN LEAN
TOWARD THE COOLER GUID. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF MORE SUNSHINE
(WITH SOME MIX OF CLOUDS) AND THE FACT WE ARE IN LATE FEB...THERE
WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT SOME OF OUR
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. STILL...TEMPS FRI WILL BE 15-23 DEGREES
BELOW AVG.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE LARGE COLD SFC HIGH (CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY) WILL SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME E/SE WINDS FOR
OUR AREA SAT WITH EVEN MORE RETURN FLOW BY SUN. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS FROM 50-60 DEGREES SAT. A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE WILL GET ESTABLISHED FOR SUN WITH PART OF THE AREA LIKELY
STAYING A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN AREAS SEEING
BETTER WARMTH AND MOISTURE. PRECIP ALSO LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN EARLY
SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN A DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR SUN-WED WILL BE ONE OF A WARMER
REGIME WITH OPPORTUNITY FOR PARTS OF THE CWA (MAINLY S HALF) TO PEAK
IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70 DEGREE RANGE. STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL AID
IN THIS WARMUP. THE TRADE OFF WILL BE MOISTURE AND A NEARBY SFC
BOUNDARY. THESE TWO ELEMENTS WILL SERVE TO SUPPORT A WET PERIOD.
WHILE NONE OF THESE TIMES LOOK TO BE A WASH OUT...MUCH BETTER THAN
AVG PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME. DEPENDING ON WHERE
ANY SFC BOUNDARY HANGS UP...RAIN AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO SEVERAL
INCHES BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS AS WE MOVE
FORWARD. /CME/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 262204
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
404 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...A QUIETER STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO
SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY/MID
NEXT WEEK...BUT A WETTER PATTERN WILL ALSO EXIST.

FOR THE TONIGHT INTO FRI...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING
THROUGH THE CWA AND IS NOTED ON VIS IMAGERY BY A SOLID LOW STRATUS
DECK. LOOK FOR THIS TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA WITH SOME OF THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. I DON`T  EXPECT ALL OF THE AREA TO
CLEAR AND THERE SHOULD BE POCKETS OF PESKY CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAKE
FOR A CHALLENGING SKY FORECAST. WITH STRONG CAA MOVING IN WITH
INCREASING SFC PRESSURES...LOOK FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT TO NOT DROP OFF
A GREAT DEAL AND NOT REACH THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE AIRMASS. NE SFC
WINDS WILL EXIST ON FRI WITH SOME WEAK CAA STILL ONGOING. TYPICALLY
WITH THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING...I WOULD OFTEN LEAN
TOWARD THE COOLER GUID. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF MORE SUNSHINE
(WITH SOME MIX OF CLOUDS) AND THE FACT WE ARE IN LATE FEB...THERE
WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT SOME OF OUR
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. STILL...TEMPS FRI WILL BE 15-23 DEGREES
BELOW AVG.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE LARGE COLD SFC HIGH (CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY) WILL SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME E/SE WINDS FOR
OUR AREA SAT WITH EVEN MORE RETURN FLOW BY SUN. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS FROM 50-60 DEGREES SAT. A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE WILL GET ESTABLISHED FOR SUN WITH PART OF THE AREA LIKELY
STAYING A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN AREAS SEEING
BETTER WARMTH AND MOISTURE. PRECIP ALSO LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN EARLY
SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN A DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR SUN-WED WILL BE ONE OF A WARMER
REGIME WITH OPPORTUNITY FOR PARTS OF THE CWA (MAINLY S HALF) TO PEAK
IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70 DEGREE RANGE. STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL AID
IN THIS WARMUP. THE TRADE OFF WILL BE MOISTURE AND A NEARBY SFC
BOUNDARY. THESE TWO ELEMENTS WILL SERVE TO SUPPORT A WET PERIOD.
WHILE NONE OF THESE TIMES LOOK TO BE A WASH OUT...MUCH BETTER THAN
AVG PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME. DEPENDING ON WHERE
ANY SFC BOUNDARY HANGS UP...RAIN AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO SEVERAL
INCHES BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS AS WE MOVE
FORWARD. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR FLIGHT STATUSES ARE BEING OBSERVED AT
MANY SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF VARYING CEILING HEIGHTS...
OR LACK THEREOF...ACROSS THE REGION.  INCREASING LOW CLOUDS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.  AT KGLH...KGWO...AND KGTR...WHERE SOME SNOW
MELTED THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...AND STANDING WATER OR
GENERALLY WET OR DAMP SURFACES NOW RESIDE...THESE SPOTS WILL
RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT AS LOWS PLUNGE INTO THE 20S.  THIS COULD LEAD TO
PATCHY ICE ON AIRCRAFT...RUNWAYS...RAMPS...OR TARMACS.  WINDS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 7-10 KNOTS. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       27  43  29  57 /   3   4   5   8
MERIDIAN      29  45  28  57 /   3   5   3   8
VICKSBURG     26  40  28  56 /   3   5   7   8
HATTIESBURG   32  50  31  60 /   3   5   4   7
NATCHEZ       28  44  30  59 /   3   4   5   8
GREENVILLE    23  34  26  49 /   3   7   9  10
GREENWOOD     23  37  25  52 /   3   6   8  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/19/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 262204
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
404 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...A QUIETER STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO
SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY/MID
NEXT WEEK...BUT A WETTER PATTERN WILL ALSO EXIST.

FOR THE TONIGHT INTO FRI...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING
THROUGH THE CWA AND IS NOTED ON VIS IMAGERY BY A SOLID LOW STRATUS
DECK. LOOK FOR THIS TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA WITH SOME OF THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. I DON`T  EXPECT ALL OF THE AREA TO
CLEAR AND THERE SHOULD BE POCKETS OF PESKY CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAKE
FOR A CHALLENGING SKY FORECAST. WITH STRONG CAA MOVING IN WITH
INCREASING SFC PRESSURES...LOOK FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT TO NOT DROP OFF
A GREAT DEAL AND NOT REACH THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE AIRMASS. NE SFC
WINDS WILL EXIST ON FRI WITH SOME WEAK CAA STILL ONGOING. TYPICALLY
WITH THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING...I WOULD OFTEN LEAN
TOWARD THE COOLER GUID. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF MORE SUNSHINE
(WITH SOME MIX OF CLOUDS) AND THE FACT WE ARE IN LATE FEB...THERE
WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT SOME OF OUR
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. STILL...TEMPS FRI WILL BE 15-23 DEGREES
BELOW AVG.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE LARGE COLD SFC HIGH (CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY) WILL SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME E/SE WINDS FOR
OUR AREA SAT WITH EVEN MORE RETURN FLOW BY SUN. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS FROM 50-60 DEGREES SAT. A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE WILL GET ESTABLISHED FOR SUN WITH PART OF THE AREA LIKELY
STAYING A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN AREAS SEEING
BETTER WARMTH AND MOISTURE. PRECIP ALSO LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN EARLY
SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN A DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR SUN-WED WILL BE ONE OF A WARMER
REGIME WITH OPPORTUNITY FOR PARTS OF THE CWA (MAINLY S HALF) TO PEAK
IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70 DEGREE RANGE. STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL AID
IN THIS WARMUP. THE TRADE OFF WILL BE MOISTURE AND A NEARBY SFC
BOUNDARY. THESE TWO ELEMENTS WILL SERVE TO SUPPORT A WET PERIOD.
WHILE NONE OF THESE TIMES LOOK TO BE A WASH OUT...MUCH BETTER THAN
AVG PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME. DEPENDING ON WHERE
ANY SFC BOUNDARY HANGS UP...RAIN AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO SEVERAL
INCHES BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS AS WE MOVE
FORWARD. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR FLIGHT STATUSES ARE BEING OBSERVED AT
MANY SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF VARYING CEILING HEIGHTS...
OR LACK THEREOF...ACROSS THE REGION.  INCREASING LOW CLOUDS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.  AT KGLH...KGWO...AND KGTR...WHERE SOME SNOW
MELTED THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...AND STANDING WATER OR
GENERALLY WET OR DAMP SURFACES NOW RESIDE...THESE SPOTS WILL
RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT AS LOWS PLUNGE INTO THE 20S.  THIS COULD LEAD TO
PATCHY ICE ON AIRCRAFT...RUNWAYS...RAMPS...OR TARMACS.  WINDS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 7-10 KNOTS. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       27  43  29  57 /   3   4   5   8
MERIDIAN      29  45  28  57 /   3   5   3   8
VICKSBURG     26  40  28  56 /   3   5   7   8
HATTIESBURG   32  50  31  60 /   3   5   4   7
NATCHEZ       28  44  30  59 /   3   4   5   8
GREENVILLE    23  34  26  49 /   3   7   9  10
GREENWOOD     23  37  25  52 /   3   6   8  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/19/







000
FXUS64 KJAN 262204
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
404 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...A QUIETER STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO
SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. MUCH
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY/MID
NEXT WEEK...BUT A WETTER PATTERN WILL ALSO EXIST.

FOR THE TONIGHT INTO FRI...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PUSHING
THROUGH THE CWA AND IS NOTED ON VIS IMAGERY BY A SOLID LOW STRATUS
DECK. LOOK FOR THIS TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWA WITH SOME OF THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. I DON`T  EXPECT ALL OF THE AREA TO
CLEAR AND THERE SHOULD BE POCKETS OF PESKY CLOUDS WHICH WILL MAKE
FOR A CHALLENGING SKY FORECAST. WITH STRONG CAA MOVING IN WITH
INCREASING SFC PRESSURES...LOOK FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT TO NOT DROP OFF
A GREAT DEAL AND NOT REACH THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE AIRMASS. NE SFC
WINDS WILL EXIST ON FRI WITH SOME WEAK CAA STILL ONGOING. TYPICALLY
WITH THE LOW LEVEL TEMPS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING...I WOULD OFTEN LEAN
TOWARD THE COOLER GUID. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF MORE SUNSHINE
(WITH SOME MIX OF CLOUDS) AND THE FACT WE ARE IN LATE FEB...THERE
WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT SOME OF OUR
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. STILL...TEMPS FRI WILL BE 15-23 DEGREES
BELOW AVG.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE LARGE COLD SFC HIGH (CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY) WILL SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME E/SE WINDS FOR
OUR AREA SAT WITH EVEN MORE RETURN FLOW BY SUN. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS FROM 50-60 DEGREES SAT. A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE WILL GET ESTABLISHED FOR SUN WITH PART OF THE AREA LIKELY
STAYING A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN AREAS SEEING
BETTER WARMTH AND MOISTURE. PRECIP ALSO LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN EARLY
SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN A DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN.

THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR SUN-WED WILL BE ONE OF A WARMER
REGIME WITH OPPORTUNITY FOR PARTS OF THE CWA (MAINLY S HALF) TO PEAK
IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70 DEGREE RANGE. STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL AID
IN THIS WARMUP. THE TRADE OFF WILL BE MOISTURE AND A NEARBY SFC
BOUNDARY. THESE TWO ELEMENTS WILL SERVE TO SUPPORT A WET PERIOD.
WHILE NONE OF THESE TIMES LOOK TO BE A WASH OUT...MUCH BETTER THAN
AVG PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME. DEPENDING ON WHERE
ANY SFC BOUNDARY HANGS UP...RAIN AMOUNTS COULD ADD UP TO SEVERAL
INCHES BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS AS WE MOVE
FORWARD. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR FLIGHT STATUSES ARE BEING OBSERVED AT
MANY SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF VARYING CEILING HEIGHTS...
OR LACK THEREOF...ACROSS THE REGION.  INCREASING LOW CLOUDS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND A DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHIFTING EAST THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.  AT KGLH...KGWO...AND KGTR...WHERE SOME SNOW
MELTED THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...AND STANDING WATER OR
GENERALLY WET OR DAMP SURFACES NOW RESIDE...THESE SPOTS WILL
RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT AS LOWS PLUNGE INTO THE 20S.  THIS COULD LEAD TO
PATCHY ICE ON AIRCRAFT...RUNWAYS...RAMPS...OR TARMACS.  WINDS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 7-10 KNOTS. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       27  43  29  57 /   3   4   5   8
MERIDIAN      29  45  28  57 /   3   5   3   8
VICKSBURG     26  40  28  56 /   3   5   7   8
HATTIESBURG   32  50  31  60 /   3   5   4   7
NATCHEZ       28  44  30  59 /   3   4   5   8
GREENVILLE    23  34  26  49 /   3   7   9  10
GREENWOOD     23  37  25  52 /   3   6   8  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/19/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 261619 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1019 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE ONLY ADJUSTMENTS
WERE TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS A BIT OVER THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR IN THE FAR
NE. THIS IS DUE TO SNOW PACK INFLUENCES. OTHER THAN THAT...SKY COVER
AND HOURLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS.

AS FOR SEEING ANY SNOW FLURRIES TODAY...THERE IS A DECENT
DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT LIFT LATER TODAY AND TRY AND MAKE THE MOST OF
THE MEAGER MOISTURE LEFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT IS THE
KEY...MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE LOWER 4-6 KFT. IT
APPEARS THAT ONLY FLURRIES CAN BE GENERATED FROM THIS AND WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THAT FOR THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF THE AREA. NO
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS IS EXPECTED. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS COLDER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN COLD CONDITIONS
FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY BEFORE WE BEGIN TO MODERATE AND WARM
INTO THE WEEKEND. DESPITE LOW END POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES IN THE N
TODAY...THE AREA LOOKS TO BE PRECIP FREE UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR/MVFR FLIGHT STATUSES ARE BEING OBSERVED AT
MANY SITES THIS MORNING...DUE TO LOW STATUS AREAWIDE AND FOG THAT`S
PLAGUING MAINLY NORTHERN SITES...KGLH...KGWO...KGTR.  WHILE FOG WILL
ERODE AS THE MORNING WARES ON...CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
THE IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE REGION.  NO
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  AT KGLH...KGWO...AND
KGTR...SNOW MELT WILL BE SLOW GOING TODAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ONLY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.  HOWEVER...ANY MELTING THAT OCCURS
TODAY ON STATIONARY AIRCRAFT...RUNWAYS...RAMPS...AND TARMACS...
WILL RE-FREEZE TONIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S.  WINDS TODAY WILL
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS...BUT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
7-10 KNOTS BEHIND A DRY AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT`LL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT ALL OF THE RAIN/SNOW TO THE ARKLAMISS HAS SHIFTED WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
MAY KICK OFF A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT THE
LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
CONTINUED STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THOUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
FALL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 30S IN THE NORTH WHERE SNOW
COVER WILL STILL BE PRESENT TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH. THE
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 20S ONCE AGAIN./15/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A TREND TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LONG TERM.  COME SATURDAY MORNING THE LARGE >1040MB HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN A COOL DRY NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR CWA. SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY.  THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD SATURDAY EVENING AND RESULTING IN A WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER
OUR CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. OUR WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LARGE CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH OVER
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A SLOW
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE SUNDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN
OUR SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW RUMBLES OVER THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL HELP SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DROP A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
LOOSE ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
RAPIDLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS OUR SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MODEL CONSENSUS STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WHERE IT WILL SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TUESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHERE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB
UP INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON PWS WILL
BE BACK NEAR AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS WILL BE QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE LOWER 20
DEW POINTS AND HALF INCH PWS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS
AND SUPPORT A SECOND SURFACE LOW THAT TRACK NORTHEAST AND DROP
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SINCE THE WEEKEND WILL FINALLY
SHIFT EAST THURSDAY HELPING TO BRING A CLEARING COLD FRONT TO OUR
CWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       44  26  41  27 /   6   7   6  13
MERIDIAN      46  27  43  27 /   4   8   7   7
VICKSBURG     43  28  40  25 /   8   7   6  13
HATTIESBURG   50  28  49  30 /   3   6   9  12
NATCHEZ       47  25  42  28 /   4   7   6  13
GREENVILLE    37  22  33  23 /  14   6  11  13
GREENWOOD     37  23  34  22 /  14   7   9  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/19/15/22/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 261619 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1019 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE ONLY ADJUSTMENTS
WERE TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS A BIT OVER THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR IN THE FAR
NE. THIS IS DUE TO SNOW PACK INFLUENCES. OTHER THAN THAT...SKY COVER
AND HOURLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS.

AS FOR SEEING ANY SNOW FLURRIES TODAY...THERE IS A DECENT
DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT LIFT LATER TODAY AND TRY AND MAKE THE MOST OF
THE MEAGER MOISTURE LEFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT IS THE
KEY...MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE LOWER 4-6 KFT. IT
APPEARS THAT ONLY FLURRIES CAN BE GENERATED FROM THIS AND WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THAT FOR THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF THE AREA. NO
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS IS EXPECTED. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS COLDER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN COLD CONDITIONS
FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY BEFORE WE BEGIN TO MODERATE AND WARM
INTO THE WEEKEND. DESPITE LOW END POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES IN THE N
TODAY...THE AREA LOOKS TO BE PRECIP FREE UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR/MVFR FLIGHT STATUSES ARE BEING OBSERVED AT
MANY SITES THIS MORNING...DUE TO LOW STATUS AREAWIDE AND FOG THAT`S
PLAGUING MAINLY NORTHERN SITES...KGLH...KGWO...KGTR.  WHILE FOG WILL
ERODE AS THE MORNING WARES ON...CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
THE IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE REGION.  NO
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  AT KGLH...KGWO...AND
KGTR...SNOW MELT WILL BE SLOW GOING TODAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ONLY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.  HOWEVER...ANY MELTING THAT OCCURS
TODAY ON STATIONARY AIRCRAFT...RUNWAYS...RAMPS...AND TARMACS...
WILL RE-FREEZE TONIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S.  WINDS TODAY WILL
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS...BUT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
7-10 KNOTS BEHIND A DRY AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT`LL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT ALL OF THE RAIN/SNOW TO THE ARKLAMISS HAS SHIFTED WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
MAY KICK OFF A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT THE
LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
CONTINUED STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THOUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
FALL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 30S IN THE NORTH WHERE SNOW
COVER WILL STILL BE PRESENT TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH. THE
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 20S ONCE AGAIN./15/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A TREND TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LONG TERM.  COME SATURDAY MORNING THE LARGE >1040MB HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN A COOL DRY NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR CWA. SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY.  THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD SATURDAY EVENING AND RESULTING IN A WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER
OUR CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. OUR WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LARGE CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH OVER
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A SLOW
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE SUNDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN
OUR SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW RUMBLES OVER THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL HELP SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DROP A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
LOOSE ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
RAPIDLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS OUR SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MODEL CONSENSUS STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WHERE IT WILL SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TUESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHERE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB
UP INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON PWS WILL
BE BACK NEAR AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS WILL BE QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE LOWER 20
DEW POINTS AND HALF INCH PWS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS
AND SUPPORT A SECOND SURFACE LOW THAT TRACK NORTHEAST AND DROP
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SINCE THE WEEKEND WILL FINALLY
SHIFT EAST THURSDAY HELPING TO BRING A CLEARING COLD FRONT TO OUR
CWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       44  26  41  27 /   6   7   6  13
MERIDIAN      46  27  43  27 /   4   8   7   7
VICKSBURG     43  28  40  25 /   8   7   6  13
HATTIESBURG   50  28  49  30 /   3   6   9  12
NATCHEZ       47  25  42  28 /   4   7   6  13
GREENVILLE    37  22  33  23 /  14   6  11  13
GREENWOOD     37  23  34  22 /  14   7   9  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/19/15/22/







000
FXUS64 KJAN 261619 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1019 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE ONLY ADJUSTMENTS
WERE TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS A BIT OVER THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR IN THE FAR
NE. THIS IS DUE TO SNOW PACK INFLUENCES. OTHER THAN THAT...SKY COVER
AND HOURLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS.

AS FOR SEEING ANY SNOW FLURRIES TODAY...THERE IS A DECENT
DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT LIFT LATER TODAY AND TRY AND MAKE THE MOST OF
THE MEAGER MOISTURE LEFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT IS THE
KEY...MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE LOWER 4-6 KFT. IT
APPEARS THAT ONLY FLURRIES CAN BE GENERATED FROM THIS AND WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THAT FOR THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF THE AREA. NO
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS IS EXPECTED. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS COLDER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN COLD CONDITIONS
FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY BEFORE WE BEGIN TO MODERATE AND WARM
INTO THE WEEKEND. DESPITE LOW END POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES IN THE N
TODAY...THE AREA LOOKS TO BE PRECIP FREE UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR/MVFR FLIGHT STATUSES ARE BEING OBSERVED AT
MANY SITES THIS MORNING...DUE TO LOW STATUS AREAWIDE AND FOG THAT`S
PLAGUING MAINLY NORTHERN SITES...KGLH...KGWO...KGTR.  WHILE FOG WILL
ERODE AS THE MORNING WARES ON...CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
THE IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE REGION.  NO
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  AT KGLH...KGWO...AND
KGTR...SNOW MELT WILL BE SLOW GOING TODAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ONLY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.  HOWEVER...ANY MELTING THAT OCCURS
TODAY ON STATIONARY AIRCRAFT...RUNWAYS...RAMPS...AND TARMACS...
WILL RE-FREEZE TONIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S.  WINDS TODAY WILL
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS...BUT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
7-10 KNOTS BEHIND A DRY AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT`LL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT ALL OF THE RAIN/SNOW TO THE ARKLAMISS HAS SHIFTED WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
MAY KICK OFF A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT THE
LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
CONTINUED STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THOUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
FALL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 30S IN THE NORTH WHERE SNOW
COVER WILL STILL BE PRESENT TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH. THE
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 20S ONCE AGAIN./15/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A TREND TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LONG TERM.  COME SATURDAY MORNING THE LARGE >1040MB HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN A COOL DRY NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR CWA. SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY.  THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD SATURDAY EVENING AND RESULTING IN A WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER
OUR CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. OUR WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LARGE CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH OVER
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A SLOW
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE SUNDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN
OUR SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW RUMBLES OVER THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL HELP SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DROP A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
LOOSE ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
RAPIDLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS OUR SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MODEL CONSENSUS STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WHERE IT WILL SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TUESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHERE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB
UP INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON PWS WILL
BE BACK NEAR AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS WILL BE QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE LOWER 20
DEW POINTS AND HALF INCH PWS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS
AND SUPPORT A SECOND SURFACE LOW THAT TRACK NORTHEAST AND DROP
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SINCE THE WEEKEND WILL FINALLY
SHIFT EAST THURSDAY HELPING TO BRING A CLEARING COLD FRONT TO OUR
CWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       44  26  41  27 /   6   7   6  13
MERIDIAN      46  27  43  27 /   4   8   7   7
VICKSBURG     43  28  40  25 /   8   7   6  13
HATTIESBURG   50  28  49  30 /   3   6   9  12
NATCHEZ       47  25  42  28 /   4   7   6  13
GREENVILLE    37  22  33  23 /  14   6  11  13
GREENWOOD     37  23  34  22 /  14   7   9  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/19/15/22/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 261013
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
413 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT ALL OF THE RAIN/SNOW TO THE ARKLAMISS HAS SHIFTED WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
MAY KICK OFF A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT THE
LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
CONTINUED STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THOUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
FALL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 30S IN THE NORTH WHERE SNOW
COVER WILL STILL BE PRESENT TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH. THE
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 20S ONCE AGAIN./15/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A TREND TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LONG TERM.  COME SATURDAY MORNING THE LARGE >1040MB HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN A COOL DRY NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR CWA. SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY.  THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD SATURDAY EVENING AND RESULTING IN A WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER
OUR CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. OUR WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LARGE CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH OVER
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A SLOW
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE SUNDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN
OUR SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW RUMBLES OVER THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL HELP SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DROP A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
LOOSE ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
RAPIDLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS OUR SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MODEL CONSENSUS STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WHERE IT WILL SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TUESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHERE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB
UP INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON PWS WILL
BE BACK NEAR AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS WILL BE QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE LOWER 20
DEW POINTS AND HALF INCH PWS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS
AND SUPPORT A SECOND SURFACE LOW THAT TRACK NORTHEAST AND DROP
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SINCE THE WEEKEND WILL FINALLY
SHIFT EAST THURSDAY HELPING TO BRING A CLEARING COLD FRONT TO OUR
CWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AS PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME BREAK IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW MAY ALLOW OCCASIONAL
VFR CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT
5-8KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       44  26  41  27 /   7   7   6  13
MERIDIAN      46  27  43  27 /   5   8   7   7
VICKSBURG     43  28  40  25 /   9   7   6  13
HATTIESBURG   50  28  49  30 /   4   6   9  12
NATCHEZ       47  25  42  28 /   5   7   6  13
GREENVILLE    37  22  33  23 /  15   6  11  13
GREENWOOD     37  23  34  22 /  15   7   9  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

15/MME/







000
FXUS64 KJAN 261013
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
413 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT ALL OF THE RAIN/SNOW TO THE ARKLAMISS HAS SHIFTED WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
MAY KICK OFF A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT THE
LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
CONTINUED STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THOUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
FALL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 30S IN THE NORTH WHERE SNOW
COVER WILL STILL BE PRESENT TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH. THE
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 20S ONCE AGAIN./15/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A TREND TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY AND WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LONG TERM.  COME SATURDAY MORNING THE LARGE >1040MB HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN A COOL DRY NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR CWA. SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY.  THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD SATURDAY EVENING AND RESULTING IN A WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER
OUR CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. OUR WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LARGE CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH OVER
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A SLOW
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE SUNDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SUGGEST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN
OUR SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW RUMBLES OVER THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL HELP SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DROP A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
LOOSE ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
RAPIDLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS OUR SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MODEL CONSENSUS STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES WHERE IT WILL SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TUESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHERE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB
UP INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON PWS WILL
BE BACK NEAR AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS WILL BE QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE LOWER 20
DEW POINTS AND HALF INCH PWS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS
AND SUPPORT A SECOND SURFACE LOW THAT TRACK NORTHEAST AND DROP
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SINCE THE WEEKEND WILL FINALLY
SHIFT EAST THURSDAY HELPING TO BRING A CLEARING COLD FRONT TO OUR
CWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AS PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME BREAK IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW MAY ALLOW OCCASIONAL
VFR CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT
5-8KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       44  26  41  27 /   7   7   6  13
MERIDIAN      46  27  43  27 /   5   8   7   7
VICKSBURG     43  28  40  25 /   9   7   6  13
HATTIESBURG   50  28  49  30 /   4   6   9  12
NATCHEZ       47  25  42  28 /   5   7   6  13
GREENVILLE    37  22  33  23 /  15   6  11  13
GREENWOOD     37  23  34  22 /  15   7   9  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

15/MME/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 260414
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1014 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. MERIDIAN REPORTED
LIGHT SNOW LAST HOUR. THE UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND
LAST OF THE SNOW JUST MOVED ACROSS THE STATE LINE. WILL GO AHEAD AND
CANCEL THE REMAINING ADVISORY AND WARNING. STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE COLD AIR.
CLOUDS SHOULD THIN...PROBABLY WILL NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY BY THE
AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPS SHOULD RISE. DID NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS BEYOND
TONIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION... STILL EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BUT ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA...PROBABLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOOKING FOR CEILINGS TO BE ABOVE 3000
FEET WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10KTS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN
AREAS WHERE CLOUDS BREAK UP BEFORE THE HIGHER STUFF MOVES THIS WAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       31  44  28  41 /  14   7   7   8
MERIDIAN      32  46  29  43 /  40   5   6  10
VICKSBURG     30  43  25  40 /  11   9   7   8
HATTIESBURG   34  50  32  49 /  10   4   6   7
NATCHEZ       31  47  28  42 /  10   4   7   8
GREENVILLE    26  37  21  33 /  13  13   8  12
GREENWOOD     27  37  23  34 /  13  13   9  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 260414
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1014 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. MERIDIAN REPORTED
LIGHT SNOW LAST HOUR. THE UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND
LAST OF THE SNOW JUST MOVED ACROSS THE STATE LINE. WILL GO AHEAD AND
CANCEL THE REMAINING ADVISORY AND WARNING. STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE COLD AIR.
CLOUDS SHOULD THIN...PROBABLY WILL NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY BY THE
AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPS SHOULD RISE. DID NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS BEYOND
TONIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION... STILL EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BUT ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA...PROBABLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOOKING FOR CEILINGS TO BE ABOVE 3000
FEET WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10KTS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN
AREAS WHERE CLOUDS BREAK UP BEFORE THE HIGHER STUFF MOVES THIS WAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       31  44  28  41 /  14   7   7   8
MERIDIAN      32  46  29  43 /  40   5   6  10
VICKSBURG     30  43  25  40 /  11   9   7   8
HATTIESBURG   34  50  32  49 /  10   4   6   7
NATCHEZ       31  47  28  42 /  10   4   7   8
GREENVILLE    26  37  21  33 /  13  13   8  12
GREENWOOD     27  37  23  34 /  13  13   9  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

/







000
FXUS64 KJAN 260414
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1014 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. MERIDIAN REPORTED
LIGHT SNOW LAST HOUR. THE UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND
LAST OF THE SNOW JUST MOVED ACROSS THE STATE LINE. WILL GO AHEAD AND
CANCEL THE REMAINING ADVISORY AND WARNING. STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE COLD AIR.
CLOUDS SHOULD THIN...PROBABLY WILL NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY BY THE
AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPS SHOULD RISE. DID NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS BEYOND
TONIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION... STILL EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BUT ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA...PROBABLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOOKING FOR CEILINGS TO BE ABOVE 3000
FEET WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10KTS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN
AREAS WHERE CLOUDS BREAK UP BEFORE THE HIGHER STUFF MOVES THIS WAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       31  44  28  41 /  14   7   7   8
MERIDIAN      32  46  29  43 /  40   5   6  10
VICKSBURG     30  43  25  40 /  11   9   7   8
HATTIESBURG   34  50  32  49 /  10   4   6   7
NATCHEZ       31  47  28  42 /  10   4   7   8
GREENVILLE    26  37  21  33 /  13  13   8  12
GREENWOOD     27  37  23  34 /  13  13   9  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 260414
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1014 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. MERIDIAN REPORTED
LIGHT SNOW LAST HOUR. THE UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND
LAST OF THE SNOW JUST MOVED ACROSS THE STATE LINE. WILL GO AHEAD AND
CANCEL THE REMAINING ADVISORY AND WARNING. STILL LOOKS LIKE A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE COLD AIR.
CLOUDS SHOULD THIN...PROBABLY WILL NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY BY THE
AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPS SHOULD RISE. DID NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS BEYOND
TONIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION... STILL EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BUT ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA...PROBABLY BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOOKING FOR CEILINGS TO BE ABOVE 3000
FEET WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10KTS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN
AREAS WHERE CLOUDS BREAK UP BEFORE THE HIGHER STUFF MOVES THIS WAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       31  44  28  41 /  14   7   7   8
MERIDIAN      32  46  29  43 /  40   5   6  10
VICKSBURG     30  43  25  40 /  11   9   7   8
HATTIESBURG   34  50  32  49 /  10   4   6   7
NATCHEZ       31  47  28  42 /  10   4   7   8
GREENVILLE    26  37  21  33 /  13  13   8  12
GREENWOOD     27  37  23  34 /  13  13   9  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

/







000
FXUS64 KJAN 260121
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
721 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...RAIN WAS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE
20 WITH SNOW BEING REPORTED AT THE AIRPORT. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY
REAL ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. AMOUNTS FROM 1
TO 7 INCHES AND GREATER HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE CWA SO FAR.
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY THROUGH AT
LEAST 10 PM. EXPECTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE OVER FOR THE
CWA AT THAT TIME. WILL REEVALUATE TEMPERATURES WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
TRIED TO KEEP THINGS STEADY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS MAY BOUNCE AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECTING
MOST LOCATIONS TO BE 1500 FEET OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST
15Z...POSSIBLY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW
ANY IMPROVEMENTS UNTIL AFTER 00Z TOMORROW. MAY SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENTS
IN THE AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY
FOG TONIGHT...BUT EXPECTING VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN ABOVE 3SM.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       28  44  28  41 / 100   7   7   8
MERIDIAN      29  46  29  43 / 100   5   6  10
VICKSBURG     26  43  25  40 /  60   9   7   8
HATTIESBURG   32  50  32  49 / 100   4   6   7
NATCHEZ       29  47  28  42 /  10   4   7   8
GREENVILLE    24  37  21  33 /  60  13   8  12
GREENWOOD     23  37  23  34 / 100  13   9  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>042.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     MSZ043>053.

LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 260121
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
721 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...RAIN WAS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE
20 WITH SNOW BEING REPORTED AT THE AIRPORT. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY
REAL ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. AMOUNTS FROM 1
TO 7 INCHES AND GREATER HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE CWA SO FAR.
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER WARNING/ADVISORY THROUGH AT
LEAST 10 PM. EXPECTING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO BE OVER FOR THE
CWA AT THAT TIME. WILL REEVALUATE TEMPERATURES WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
TRIED TO KEEP THINGS STEADY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS MAY BOUNCE AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECTING
MOST LOCATIONS TO BE 1500 FEET OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST
15Z...POSSIBLY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW
ANY IMPROVEMENTS UNTIL AFTER 00Z TOMORROW. MAY SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENTS
IN THE AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY
FOG TONIGHT...BUT EXPECTING VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN ABOVE 3SM.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       28  44  28  41 / 100   7   7   8
MERIDIAN      29  46  29  43 / 100   5   6  10
VICKSBURG     26  43  25  40 /  60   9   7   8
HATTIESBURG   32  50  32  49 / 100   4   6   7
NATCHEZ       29  47  28  42 /  10   4   7   8
GREENVILLE    24  37  21  33 /  60  13   8  12
GREENWOOD     23  37  23  34 / 100  13   9  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>042.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     MSZ043>053.

LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

/







000
FXUS64 KJAN 252237
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
437 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...CURRENTLY THE RAIN SNOW
LINE EXTENDS FROM WINNSBORO TO VICKSBURG TO NORTH OF CANTON TO
LOUISVILLE TO BROOKSVILLE. THE 88D CC PRODUCT HAS BEEN EXTREMELY
HELPFUL PROVIDING AN ACCURATE DEPICTION OF THE TRANSITION BETWEEN
MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES AND UNIFORM SNOW. LATEST WATER VAPOR
CURRENTLY SHOWS THE MID/UPPER VORT MAX SWINGING ACROSS THE
STATE...BRINGING THIS CHANGE TO SNOW. PRECIP WAS BEGINNING TO WANE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE AREA AS DRIER AIR WRAPS INTO
THE SYSTEM...BUT FARTHER NORTH SNOW CONTINUES AS FAR BACK TO THE WEST
AS EL DORADO AR. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL EASTWARD...THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION SOUTH/EASTWARD UNDER THE
UPPER LOW...BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH SUCH AS CARTHAGE AND MACON. A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE JACKSON METRO AND OTHER AREAS ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE LESS LIKELY IN THOSE AREAS AS PRECIP QUICKLY COMES TO AN
END.

ALL MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY
03Z...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THERE COULD BE LINGERING FLURRIES NORTH OF I-20 TONIGHT AND
THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE LINGERING STRATUS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE CWA...AND IN THE 20S IN MOST
AREAS NORTH OF I-20. OBVIOUSLY TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES IN
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE OR WILL HAVE SNOW AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT
WE WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FREEZING OF LINGERING
MOISTURE ON ROADS AND BRIDGES OVERNIGHT EVEN IN AREAS THAT DO NOT
RECEIVE APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS. SURFACE WINDS...WHICH MIGHT
OTHERWISE HELP TO DRY UP LINGERING MOISTURE...WILL BE INCREASINLY
LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND PERHAPS
MUCH OF THE NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS
OVER OUR AREA. TOMORROW AFTERNOON...FLURRIES MAY EVEN OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS A DISTURBANCE SCOOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN AREAS THAT WILL HAVE ACCUMULATIONS ON THE
GROUND WERE ADJUSTED BELOW GUIDANCE. IF ANY CLEARING CAN OCCUR IN
THOSE AREAS TOMORROW NIGHT...LOWS IN THE TEENS CERTAINLY ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. /DL/

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO SETUP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BUILDS INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION.  NORTHERLY FLOW...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON
SATURDAY...WILL OVER ALL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
HIGHS FRIDAY LOOK TO ONLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE
DELTA...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SOUTH.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS...WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA EACH NIGHT AS LOWS FALL
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE WARMING TREND REALLY KICKS INTO GEAR SUNDAY AS BOTH SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE SITS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  THIS COUPLED WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SUBTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IN
ADDITION TO BRINGING SOME RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EVEN FURTHER MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS AS A RESULT OF INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT`LL
EVENTUALLY DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME MID-WEEK.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND BRINGING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION...MAINLY MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION.  MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE THAT WITH ENHANCED
LIFT AND ADEQUATE DEEP WIND SHEAR ADDED TO THE EQUATION AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT COME MID-WEEK...THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS...MORE SO WHEN SAID FRONT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE
REGION.  THIS IS STILL WELL OUT IN THE FORECAST...AND GIVEN THE
TIMING AND SOME SMALL EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES...I`LL KEEP THE HWO
CLEAR OF ANY SEVERE MENTION ON THIS PACKAGE.  THIS POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ONGOING AT KGLH...KGWO AND KGTR.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE TAPERING TO
LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z THURSDAY.  THE SNOW SHOULD END
SHORTLY AFTER THAT. STILL THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT KJAN AND KHKS BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT IF IT DOES. DO
NOT EXPECT SNOW AT KMEI AND KHBG.

THE OTHER ISSUE IS IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG AS WELL. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       28  44  28  41 /  20   7   7   8
MERIDIAN      29  46  29  43 /  38   5   6  10
VICKSBURG     26  43  25  40 /  10   9   7   8
HATTIESBURG   32  50  32  49 /  20   4   6   7
NATCHEZ       29  47  28  42 /  10   4   7   8
GREENVILLE    24  37  21  33 /  20  13   8  12
GREENWOOD     23  37  23  34 /  32  13   9  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>042.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     MSZ043>053.

LA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-
     015.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ016-
     023>025.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DL/19/SW





000
FXUS64 KJAN 252237
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
437 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...CURRENTLY THE RAIN SNOW
LINE EXTENDS FROM WINNSBORO TO VICKSBURG TO NORTH OF CANTON TO
LOUISVILLE TO BROOKSVILLE. THE 88D CC PRODUCT HAS BEEN EXTREMELY
HELPFUL PROVIDING AN ACCURATE DEPICTION OF THE TRANSITION BETWEEN
MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES AND UNIFORM SNOW. LATEST WATER VAPOR
CURRENTLY SHOWS THE MID/UPPER VORT MAX SWINGING ACROSS THE
STATE...BRINGING THIS CHANGE TO SNOW. PRECIP WAS BEGINNING TO WANE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE AREA AS DRIER AIR WRAPS INTO
THE SYSTEM...BUT FARTHER NORTH SNOW CONTINUES AS FAR BACK TO THE WEST
AS EL DORADO AR. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL EASTWARD...THE
RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION SOUTH/EASTWARD UNDER THE
UPPER LOW...BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH SUCH AS CARTHAGE AND MACON. A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE JACKSON METRO AND OTHER AREAS ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE LESS LIKELY IN THOSE AREAS AS PRECIP QUICKLY COMES TO AN
END.

ALL MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY
03Z...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THERE COULD BE LINGERING FLURRIES NORTH OF I-20 TONIGHT AND
THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE LINGERING STRATUS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE CWA...AND IN THE 20S IN MOST
AREAS NORTH OF I-20. OBVIOUSLY TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES IN
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE OR WILL HAVE SNOW AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...BUT
WE WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FREEZING OF LINGERING
MOISTURE ON ROADS AND BRIDGES OVERNIGHT EVEN IN AREAS THAT DO NOT
RECEIVE APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS. SURFACE WINDS...WHICH MIGHT
OTHERWISE HELP TO DRY UP LINGERING MOISTURE...WILL BE INCREASINLY
LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND PERHAPS
MUCH OF THE NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS
OVER OUR AREA. TOMORROW AFTERNOON...FLURRIES MAY EVEN OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS A DISTURBANCE SCOOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN AREAS THAT WILL HAVE ACCUMULATIONS ON THE
GROUND WERE ADJUSTED BELOW GUIDANCE. IF ANY CLEARING CAN OCCUR IN
THOSE AREAS TOMORROW NIGHT...LOWS IN THE TEENS CERTAINLY ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. /DL/

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED TO SETUP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BUILDS INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION.  NORTHERLY FLOW...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON
SATURDAY...WILL OVER ALL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
HIGHS FRIDAY LOOK TO ONLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE
DELTA...TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SOUTH.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS...WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA EACH NIGHT AS LOWS FALL
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE WARMING TREND REALLY KICKS INTO GEAR SUNDAY AS BOTH SURFACE AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE SITS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  THIS COUPLED WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SUBTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IN
ADDITION TO BRINGING SOME RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EVEN FURTHER MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS AS A RESULT OF INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT`LL
EVENTUALLY DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SOMETIME MID-WEEK.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND BRINGING IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION...MAINLY MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION.  MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE THAT WITH ENHANCED
LIFT AND ADEQUATE DEEP WIND SHEAR ADDED TO THE EQUATION AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT COME MID-WEEK...THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS...MORE SO WHEN SAID FRONT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE
REGION.  THIS IS STILL WELL OUT IN THE FORECAST...AND GIVEN THE
TIMING AND SOME SMALL EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES...I`LL KEEP THE HWO
CLEAR OF ANY SEVERE MENTION ON THIS PACKAGE.  THIS POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ONGOING AT KGLH...KGWO AND KGTR.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE TAPERING TO
LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z THURSDAY.  THE SNOW SHOULD END
SHORTLY AFTER THAT. STILL THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE
TO LIGHT SNOW AT KJAN AND KHKS BUT IT SHOULD BE LIGHT IF IT DOES. DO
NOT EXPECT SNOW AT KMEI AND KHBG.

THE OTHER ISSUE IS IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG AS WELL. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       28  44  28  41 /  20   7   7   8
MERIDIAN      29  46  29  43 /  38   5   6  10
VICKSBURG     26  43  25  40 /  10   9   7   8
HATTIESBURG   32  50  32  49 /  20   4   6   7
NATCHEZ       29  47  28  42 /  10   4   7   8
GREENVILLE    24  37  21  33 /  20  13   8  12
GREENWOOD     23  37  23  34 /  32  13   9  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>042.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     MSZ043>053.

LA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-
     015.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ016-
     023>025.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DL/19/SW






000
FXUS64 KJAN 251735 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1135 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...MESSY AND COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH A WIDE RANGE OF PRECIP TYPES ACROSS THE CWA. OVER
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HOVERING
NEAR FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...WITH PREDOMINATELY SLEET AND
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. AS FAR SOUTH AS HINDS...MADISON...NEWTON AND
LAUDERDALE COUNTIES...WE HAVE BEEN RECEIVING REPORTS OF NEW ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ON TREES AND POWERLINES AND EVEN NEW POWER OUTAGES
RESULTING FROM LARGE LIMBS BREAKING. GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20 (EXCEPT
FOR IN NE LOUISIANA)...PRECIP IS ALL LIQUID. IN THE DELTA...WE ARE
NOW BEGINNING TO SEE A TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN SNOW. THE SWITCH TO
SNOW HAS JUST TAKEN PLACE IN OUR SOUTHEAST AR COUNTIES AND WILL BE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE RIVER INTO THE CLEVELAND AND GREENVILLE AREAS
SHORTLY. JUST WEST OF THE CWA...THE TRANSITION TO MODERATE AND AT
TIMES HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN FAST...AND SNOWFALL RATES HAVE BEEN HIGH
AT TIMES WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 INCHES TAKING PLACE OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH AR AND NORTH LA WITHIN JUST THE PAST FEW HOURS.

THROUGH THE MORNING...THE HRRR HAS HANDLED THE SLOWER TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW WELL AS THE MID LEVEL VORT SWINGS INTO THE AREA MORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LATER TRANSITION...IT STILL INDICATES HEAVIER
SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AS DYNAMIC COOLING OCCURS IN THE
COLD CORE. THIS SCENARIO WAS COVERED PRETTY WELL IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...AND OUR FORECAST THINKING HAS CHANGED LITTLE THUS
FAR...EXCEPT TO PUSH BACK THE START OF HEAVIER SNOW A FEW HOURS. WE
ALSO STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER IN CONVECTIVE BANDS...AND REPORTS
OF THIS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BACK TO OUR WEST ALREADY THIS MORNING.

FOR THE UPDATE IT WAS NECESSARY TO CHANGE THE PROPORTION OF ICE/SNOW
ACCUMS DURING THE EARLY DAY TIME FRAME BASED ON THE GREATER
PREVALENCE OF FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMS ARE
STILL IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE DAY AND NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THESE. STILL EXPECTING THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST
WERE GENERALLY ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE AT
THIS TIME. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...PLENTY OF AVIATION ISSUES TODAY. VSBY RESTRICTED BY RAIN
AND SOON TO BE BY SNOW. HAVE CARRIED VSBY REDUCTIONS TO 1/2SM AT
KGLH...KGWO AND KGTR THIS AFTERNOON FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WILL WATCH
FOR FURTHER RESTRICTIONS SPECIFICALLY AT KJAN AND KHKS THIS
AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS ARE IFR AT SEVERAL SITES AND A FURTHER LOWERING IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE IN THE IFR CATEGORY AFTER THE
STORM PASSES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  FORTUNATELY...THIS STORM
HAS NO WINDS TO SPEAK OF. /SW/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 458 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM CAME
IN IT WILL EXIT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE HEAVIER PRECIP
WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT WITH THE I20 CORRIDOR SEEING THE MIX CHANGE
OVER TO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES BEFORE ENDING. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO EXIT
PRETTY CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THE PRECIP AS WELL. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...CALM WINDS AND INCREASED ALBEDO FROM THE SNOW COVER...EXPECT
TEMPS TO DROP LIKE A ROCK OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TO MID 20S OVER THE
NORTH AND NEAR 30 OVER THE FAR SOUTH./26/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE FROM A
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTH.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH. AS THE FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL KICK OF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS IS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...BUT CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STRONG STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HAIL
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.

ON MONDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING ...BUT DIFFER ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE GFS FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF IS WELL TO THE NORTH. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
ECMWF WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY. FROM MONDAY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
ACROSS THE PLANES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS...BUT BOTH
OF THE MODELS KEEP THE UPPER HEIGHTS FAIRLY HIGH WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY REMAINING TO THE NORTH. CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THERE IS AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK AND BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE A MORE POTENT SYSTEM DURING THIS PERIOD ALSO. WITH
THIS OVERALL PATTERN EXPECT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH./15/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>042.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     MSZ043>053.

LA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-
     015.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ016-
     023>025.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DL/SW/26/15/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 251735 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1135 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...MESSY AND COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH A WIDE RANGE OF PRECIP TYPES ACROSS THE CWA. OVER
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HOVERING
NEAR FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...WITH PREDOMINATELY SLEET AND
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. AS FAR SOUTH AS HINDS...MADISON...NEWTON AND
LAUDERDALE COUNTIES...WE HAVE BEEN RECEIVING REPORTS OF NEW ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ON TREES AND POWERLINES AND EVEN NEW POWER OUTAGES
RESULTING FROM LARGE LIMBS BREAKING. GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20 (EXCEPT
FOR IN NE LOUISIANA)...PRECIP IS ALL LIQUID. IN THE DELTA...WE ARE
NOW BEGINNING TO SEE A TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN SNOW. THE SWITCH TO
SNOW HAS JUST TAKEN PLACE IN OUR SOUTHEAST AR COUNTIES AND WILL BE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE RIVER INTO THE CLEVELAND AND GREENVILLE AREAS
SHORTLY. JUST WEST OF THE CWA...THE TRANSITION TO MODERATE AND AT
TIMES HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN FAST...AND SNOWFALL RATES HAVE BEEN HIGH
AT TIMES WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 INCHES TAKING PLACE OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH AR AND NORTH LA WITHIN JUST THE PAST FEW HOURS.

THROUGH THE MORNING...THE HRRR HAS HANDLED THE SLOWER TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW WELL AS THE MID LEVEL VORT SWINGS INTO THE AREA MORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LATER TRANSITION...IT STILL INDICATES HEAVIER
SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AS DYNAMIC COOLING OCCURS IN THE
COLD CORE. THIS SCENARIO WAS COVERED PRETTY WELL IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...AND OUR FORECAST THINKING HAS CHANGED LITTLE THUS
FAR...EXCEPT TO PUSH BACK THE START OF HEAVIER SNOW A FEW HOURS. WE
ALSO STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER IN CONVECTIVE BANDS...AND REPORTS
OF THIS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BACK TO OUR WEST ALREADY THIS MORNING.

FOR THE UPDATE IT WAS NECESSARY TO CHANGE THE PROPORTION OF ICE/SNOW
ACCUMS DURING THE EARLY DAY TIME FRAME BASED ON THE GREATER
PREVALENCE OF FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMS ARE
STILL IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE DAY AND NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THESE. STILL EXPECTING THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST
WERE GENERALLY ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE AT
THIS TIME. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...PLENTY OF AVIATION ISSUES TODAY. VSBY RESTRICTED BY RAIN
AND SOON TO BE BY SNOW. HAVE CARRIED VSBY REDUCTIONS TO 1/2SM AT
KGLH...KGWO AND KGTR THIS AFTERNOON FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WILL WATCH
FOR FURTHER RESTRICTIONS SPECIFICALLY AT KJAN AND KHKS THIS
AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS ARE IFR AT SEVERAL SITES AND A FURTHER LOWERING IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE IN THE IFR CATEGORY AFTER THE
STORM PASSES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  FORTUNATELY...THIS STORM
HAS NO WINDS TO SPEAK OF. /SW/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 458 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM CAME
IN IT WILL EXIT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE HEAVIER PRECIP
WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT WITH THE I20 CORRIDOR SEEING THE MIX CHANGE
OVER TO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES BEFORE ENDING. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO EXIT
PRETTY CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THE PRECIP AS WELL. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...CALM WINDS AND INCREASED ALBEDO FROM THE SNOW COVER...EXPECT
TEMPS TO DROP LIKE A ROCK OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TO MID 20S OVER THE
NORTH AND NEAR 30 OVER THE FAR SOUTH./26/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE FROM A
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTH.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH. AS THE FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL KICK OF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS IS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...BUT CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STRONG STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HAIL
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.

ON MONDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING ...BUT DIFFER ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE GFS FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF IS WELL TO THE NORTH. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
ECMWF WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY. FROM MONDAY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
ACROSS THE PLANES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS...BUT BOTH
OF THE MODELS KEEP THE UPPER HEIGHTS FAIRLY HIGH WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY REMAINING TO THE NORTH. CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THERE IS AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK AND BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE A MORE POTENT SYSTEM DURING THIS PERIOD ALSO. WITH
THIS OVERALL PATTERN EXPECT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH./15/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>042.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     MSZ043>053.

LA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-
     015.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ016-
     023>025.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DL/SW/26/15/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 251735 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1135 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...MESSY AND COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH A WIDE RANGE OF PRECIP TYPES ACROSS THE CWA. OVER
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HOVERING
NEAR FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...WITH PREDOMINATELY SLEET AND
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. AS FAR SOUTH AS HINDS...MADISON...NEWTON AND
LAUDERDALE COUNTIES...WE HAVE BEEN RECEIVING REPORTS OF NEW ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ON TREES AND POWERLINES AND EVEN NEW POWER OUTAGES
RESULTING FROM LARGE LIMBS BREAKING. GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20 (EXCEPT
FOR IN NE LOUISIANA)...PRECIP IS ALL LIQUID. IN THE DELTA...WE ARE
NOW BEGINNING TO SEE A TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN SNOW. THE SWITCH TO
SNOW HAS JUST TAKEN PLACE IN OUR SOUTHEAST AR COUNTIES AND WILL BE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE RIVER INTO THE CLEVELAND AND GREENVILLE AREAS
SHORTLY. JUST WEST OF THE CWA...THE TRANSITION TO MODERATE AND AT
TIMES HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN FAST...AND SNOWFALL RATES HAVE BEEN HIGH
AT TIMES WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 INCHES TAKING PLACE OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH AR AND NORTH LA WITHIN JUST THE PAST FEW HOURS.

THROUGH THE MORNING...THE HRRR HAS HANDLED THE SLOWER TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW WELL AS THE MID LEVEL VORT SWINGS INTO THE AREA MORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LATER TRANSITION...IT STILL INDICATES HEAVIER
SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AS DYNAMIC COOLING OCCURS IN THE
COLD CORE. THIS SCENARIO WAS COVERED PRETTY WELL IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...AND OUR FORECAST THINKING HAS CHANGED LITTLE THUS
FAR...EXCEPT TO PUSH BACK THE START OF HEAVIER SNOW A FEW HOURS. WE
ALSO STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER IN CONVECTIVE BANDS...AND REPORTS
OF THIS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BACK TO OUR WEST ALREADY THIS MORNING.

FOR THE UPDATE IT WAS NECESSARY TO CHANGE THE PROPORTION OF ICE/SNOW
ACCUMS DURING THE EARLY DAY TIME FRAME BASED ON THE GREATER
PREVALENCE OF FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMS ARE
STILL IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE DAY AND NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THESE. STILL EXPECTING THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST
WERE GENERALLY ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE AT
THIS TIME. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...PLENTY OF AVIATION ISSUES TODAY. VSBY RESTRICTED BY RAIN
AND SOON TO BE BY SNOW. HAVE CARRIED VSBY REDUCTIONS TO 1/2SM AT
KGLH...KGWO AND KGTR THIS AFTERNOON FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WILL WATCH
FOR FURTHER RESTRICTIONS SPECIFICALLY AT KJAN AND KHKS THIS
AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS ARE IFR AT SEVERAL SITES AND A FURTHER LOWERING IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE IN THE IFR CATEGORY AFTER THE
STORM PASSES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  FORTUNATELY...THIS STORM
HAS NO WINDS TO SPEAK OF. /SW/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 458 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM CAME
IN IT WILL EXIT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE HEAVIER PRECIP
WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT WITH THE I20 CORRIDOR SEEING THE MIX CHANGE
OVER TO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES BEFORE ENDING. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO EXIT
PRETTY CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THE PRECIP AS WELL. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...CALM WINDS AND INCREASED ALBEDO FROM THE SNOW COVER...EXPECT
TEMPS TO DROP LIKE A ROCK OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TO MID 20S OVER THE
NORTH AND NEAR 30 OVER THE FAR SOUTH./26/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE FROM A
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTH.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH. AS THE FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL KICK OF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS IS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...BUT CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STRONG STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HAIL
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.

ON MONDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING ...BUT DIFFER ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE GFS FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF IS WELL TO THE NORTH. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
ECMWF WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY. FROM MONDAY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
ACROSS THE PLANES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS...BUT BOTH
OF THE MODELS KEEP THE UPPER HEIGHTS FAIRLY HIGH WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY REMAINING TO THE NORTH. CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THERE IS AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK AND BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE A MORE POTENT SYSTEM DURING THIS PERIOD ALSO. WITH
THIS OVERALL PATTERN EXPECT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH./15/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>042.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     MSZ043>053.

LA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-
     015.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ016-
     023>025.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DL/SW/26/15/







000
FXUS64 KJAN 251735 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1135 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...MESSY AND COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH A WIDE RANGE OF PRECIP TYPES ACROSS THE CWA. OVER
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HOVERING
NEAR FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...WITH PREDOMINATELY SLEET AND
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. AS FAR SOUTH AS HINDS...MADISON...NEWTON AND
LAUDERDALE COUNTIES...WE HAVE BEEN RECEIVING REPORTS OF NEW ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ON TREES AND POWERLINES AND EVEN NEW POWER OUTAGES
RESULTING FROM LARGE LIMBS BREAKING. GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20 (EXCEPT
FOR IN NE LOUISIANA)...PRECIP IS ALL LIQUID. IN THE DELTA...WE ARE
NOW BEGINNING TO SEE A TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN SNOW. THE SWITCH TO
SNOW HAS JUST TAKEN PLACE IN OUR SOUTHEAST AR COUNTIES AND WILL BE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE RIVER INTO THE CLEVELAND AND GREENVILLE AREAS
SHORTLY. JUST WEST OF THE CWA...THE TRANSITION TO MODERATE AND AT
TIMES HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN FAST...AND SNOWFALL RATES HAVE BEEN HIGH
AT TIMES WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 INCHES TAKING PLACE OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH AR AND NORTH LA WITHIN JUST THE PAST FEW HOURS.

THROUGH THE MORNING...THE HRRR HAS HANDLED THE SLOWER TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW WELL AS THE MID LEVEL VORT SWINGS INTO THE AREA MORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LATER TRANSITION...IT STILL INDICATES HEAVIER
SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AS DYNAMIC COOLING OCCURS IN THE
COLD CORE. THIS SCENARIO WAS COVERED PRETTY WELL IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...AND OUR FORECAST THINKING HAS CHANGED LITTLE THUS
FAR...EXCEPT TO PUSH BACK THE START OF HEAVIER SNOW A FEW HOURS. WE
ALSO STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER IN CONVECTIVE BANDS...AND REPORTS
OF THIS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BACK TO OUR WEST ALREADY THIS MORNING.

FOR THE UPDATE IT WAS NECESSARY TO CHANGE THE PROPORTION OF ICE/SNOW
ACCUMS DURING THE EARLY DAY TIME FRAME BASED ON THE GREATER
PREVALENCE OF FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMS ARE
STILL IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE DAY AND NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THESE. STILL EXPECTING THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST
WERE GENERALLY ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE AT
THIS TIME. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...PLENTY OF AVIATION ISSUES TODAY. VSBY RESTRICTED BY RAIN
AND SOON TO BE BY SNOW. HAVE CARRIED VSBY REDUCTIONS TO 1/2SM AT
KGLH...KGWO AND KGTR THIS AFTERNOON FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WILL WATCH
FOR FURTHER RESTRICTIONS SPECIFICALLY AT KJAN AND KHKS THIS
AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS ARE IFR AT SEVERAL SITES AND A FURTHER LOWERING IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE IN THE IFR CATEGORY AFTER THE
STORM PASSES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  FORTUNATELY...THIS STORM
HAS NO WINDS TO SPEAK OF. /SW/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 458 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM CAME
IN IT WILL EXIT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE HEAVIER PRECIP
WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT WITH THE I20 CORRIDOR SEEING THE MIX CHANGE
OVER TO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES BEFORE ENDING. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO EXIT
PRETTY CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THE PRECIP AS WELL. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...CALM WINDS AND INCREASED ALBEDO FROM THE SNOW COVER...EXPECT
TEMPS TO DROP LIKE A ROCK OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TO MID 20S OVER THE
NORTH AND NEAR 30 OVER THE FAR SOUTH./26/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE FROM A
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTH.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH. AS THE FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL KICK OF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS IS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...BUT CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STRONG STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HAIL
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.

ON MONDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING ...BUT DIFFER ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE GFS FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF IS WELL TO THE NORTH. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
ECMWF WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY. FROM MONDAY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
ACROSS THE PLANES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS...BUT BOTH
OF THE MODELS KEEP THE UPPER HEIGHTS FAIRLY HIGH WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY REMAINING TO THE NORTH. CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THERE IS AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK AND BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE A MORE POTENT SYSTEM DURING THIS PERIOD ALSO. WITH
THIS OVERALL PATTERN EXPECT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH./15/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>042.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     MSZ043>053.

LA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-
     015.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ016-
     023>025.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DL/SW/26/15/







000
FXUS64 KJAN 251058
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
458 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PRECIP SHIELD HAS EXPLODED
TO OUR WEST IN THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH SOME LIGHT STUFF POSSIBLY
AFFECTING OUR FAR WESTERN SECTION AT PRESENT. LOOKING AT THE
SATELLITE DATA...SYSTEM IS RATHER STRETCHED OUT WITH WARM ADVECTION
SHIELD SPREAD OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL COLD CORE IS STILL OVER W
TX.

PRECIP MAY TAKE A LITTLE BIT TO EVENTUALLY BECOME THE SNOW EVENT
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. WARM ADVECTION RAINS AND FREEZING RAINS/SLEET
WILL BE MOST IMMEDIATELY NOTICED AT THE ONSET WHILE THE GREATER
DEPTH OF COLD AIR ALOFT WONT BE SEEN UNTIL THE COLD CORE CAN GET
CLOSER...PROBABLY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SO...A SLOW
TRANSITION FROM THE RAINY ONSET TO THE PREDOMINANT SNOW...OVER
MAINLY THE NORTH...LOOKS TO OCCUR. INITIAL FREEZING RAIN ACROSS C/SW
MS WILL LIFT NORTH AND TRANSITION TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. ICE FROM
LAST EVENT STILL PREVALENT IN TREES IN THE AREA. CURIOUS TO SEE IF
THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ACRETE EVEN WHEN THE SURFACE TEMP/WET BULB
GOES ABOVE FREEZING.

NAM BUFR DATA AND ECMWF STILL SHOWING DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH 6-7C/KM IN THE H5-H7 LAYER SUGGESTING THAT IN ADDITION TO THE
STRONG ADIABATIC FORCING...A DIABATIC CONTRIBUTION WILL BE SEEN AS
WELL RESULTING IN CONVECTIVE BANDED STRUCTURES...INCREASED PRECIP
RATES AND EVEN SOME THUNDER. WHILE THE NORTHERN THIRD WILL BE FIRMLY
IN THE SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON...THE I20 CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTH WILL
HAVE A PREDOMINANT PRECP TYPE PROBLEM. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A QUASI-ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN THE H95-H7 LAYER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...CAUSING A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW. IF
SOME CONVECTIVE BURSTS CAN BE SEEN IN THIS CORRIDOR...INCREASED
PRECIP RATES CAN EASILY COOL THE LAYER DOWN ENOUGH TO CAUSE
PREDOMINANTLY SNOW TO OCCUR...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

AGREE WITH WPC ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-6 INCHES IN THE HWY
82 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES. ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE...A DUSTING UP TO 2
INCHES WILL BE COMMON.

AS RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM CAME IN IT WILL EXIT BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT WITH
THE I20 CORRIDOR SEEING THE MIX CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
BEFORE ENDING. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO EXIT PRETTY CLOSE ON THE HEELS
OF THE PRECIP AS WELL. WITH CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND INCREASED
ALBEDO FROM THE SNOW COVER...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP LIKE A ROCK
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TO MID 20S OVER THE NORTH AND NEAR 30 OVER THE
FAR SOUTH./26/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE FROM A
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTH.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH. AS THE FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL KICK OF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS IS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...BUT CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STRONG STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HAIL
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.

ON MONDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING ...BUT DIFFER ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE GFS FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF IS WELL TO THE NORTH. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
ECMWF WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY. FROM MONDAY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
ACROSS THE PLANES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS...BUT BOTH
OF THE MODELS KEEP THE UPPER HEIGHTS FAIRLY HIGH WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY REMAINING TO THE NORTH. CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THERE IS AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK AND BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE A MORE POTENT SYSTEM DURING THIS PERIOD ALSO. WITH
THIS OVERALL PATTERN EXPECT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH./15/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DROP TO IFR BY 15Z AS A MIX OF
RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW MOVE INTO THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BY 26/00Z.
CLEARING WILL GET UNDERWAY FROM THE WEST AFTER 00Z WITH MOST
LOCATIONS CLEAR BY 09Z./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       35  28  44  28 / 100  25  13   9
MERIDIAN      35  28  46  30 / 100  32  13   9
VICKSBURG     35  26  44  27 / 100  18  12   9
HATTIESBURG   41  30  50  33 / 100  24  11   6
NATCHEZ       37  27  47  28 / 100  13   9   9
GREENVILLE    33  24  39  22 / 100  27  14  12
GREENWOOD     33  23  40  23 / 100  28  14  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>042.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ059-
     060.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     MSZ043>053.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ054.

LA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-
     015.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ016-
     023>026.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

GARRETT/15/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 251058
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
458 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PRECIP SHIELD HAS EXPLODED
TO OUR WEST IN THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH SOME LIGHT STUFF POSSIBLY
AFFECTING OUR FAR WESTERN SECTION AT PRESENT. LOOKING AT THE
SATELLITE DATA...SYSTEM IS RATHER STRETCHED OUT WITH WARM ADVECTION
SHIELD SPREAD OVER THE AREA WHILE MID LEVEL COLD CORE IS STILL OVER W
TX.

PRECIP MAY TAKE A LITTLE BIT TO EVENTUALLY BECOME THE SNOW EVENT
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. WARM ADVECTION RAINS AND FREEZING RAINS/SLEET
WILL BE MOST IMMEDIATELY NOTICED AT THE ONSET WHILE THE GREATER
DEPTH OF COLD AIR ALOFT WONT BE SEEN UNTIL THE COLD CORE CAN GET
CLOSER...PROBABLY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SO...A SLOW
TRANSITION FROM THE RAINY ONSET TO THE PREDOMINANT SNOW...OVER
MAINLY THE NORTH...LOOKS TO OCCUR. INITIAL FREEZING RAIN ACROSS C/SW
MS WILL LIFT NORTH AND TRANSITION TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. ICE FROM
LAST EVENT STILL PREVALENT IN TREES IN THE AREA. CURIOUS TO SEE IF
THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ACRETE EVEN WHEN THE SURFACE TEMP/WET BULB
GOES ABOVE FREEZING.

NAM BUFR DATA AND ECMWF STILL SHOWING DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH 6-7C/KM IN THE H5-H7 LAYER SUGGESTING THAT IN ADDITION TO THE
STRONG ADIABATIC FORCING...A DIABATIC CONTRIBUTION WILL BE SEEN AS
WELL RESULTING IN CONVECTIVE BANDED STRUCTURES...INCREASED PRECIP
RATES AND EVEN SOME THUNDER. WHILE THE NORTHERN THIRD WILL BE FIRMLY
IN THE SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON...THE I20 CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTH WILL
HAVE A PREDOMINANT PRECP TYPE PROBLEM. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A QUASI-ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN THE H95-H7 LAYER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...CAUSING A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW. IF
SOME CONVECTIVE BURSTS CAN BE SEEN IN THIS CORRIDOR...INCREASED
PRECIP RATES CAN EASILY COOL THE LAYER DOWN ENOUGH TO CAUSE
PREDOMINANTLY SNOW TO OCCUR...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

AGREE WITH WPC ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-6 INCHES IN THE HWY
82 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES. ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE...A DUSTING UP TO 2
INCHES WILL BE COMMON.

AS RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM CAME IN IT WILL EXIT BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT WITH
THE I20 CORRIDOR SEEING THE MIX CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
BEFORE ENDING. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO EXIT PRETTY CLOSE ON THE HEELS
OF THE PRECIP AS WELL. WITH CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND INCREASED
ALBEDO FROM THE SNOW COVER...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP LIKE A ROCK
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TO MID 20S OVER THE NORTH AND NEAR 30 OVER THE
FAR SOUTH./26/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE FROM A
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
AND HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTH.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH. AS THE FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL KICK OF SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS IS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...BUT CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STRONG STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HAIL
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.

ON MONDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING ...BUT DIFFER ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE GFS FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE ECMWF IS WELL TO THE NORTH. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
ECMWF WHICH WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY. FROM MONDAY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
ACROSS THE PLANES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS...BUT BOTH
OF THE MODELS KEEP THE UPPER HEIGHTS FAIRLY HIGH WITH MOST OF THE
ENERGY REMAINING TO THE NORTH. CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE THAT THERE IS AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK AND BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE A MORE POTENT SYSTEM DURING THIS PERIOD ALSO. WITH
THIS OVERALL PATTERN EXPECT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH./15/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DROP TO IFR BY 15Z AS A MIX OF
RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW MOVE INTO THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BY 26/00Z.
CLEARING WILL GET UNDERWAY FROM THE WEST AFTER 00Z WITH MOST
LOCATIONS CLEAR BY 09Z./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       35  28  44  28 / 100  25  13   9
MERIDIAN      35  28  46  30 / 100  32  13   9
VICKSBURG     35  26  44  27 / 100  18  12   9
HATTIESBURG   41  30  50  33 / 100  24  11   6
NATCHEZ       37  27  47  28 / 100  13   9   9
GREENVILLE    33  24  39  22 / 100  27  14  12
GREENWOOD     33  23  40  23 / 100  28  14  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>042.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ059-
     060.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     MSZ043>053.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ054.

LA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-
     015.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ016-
     023>026.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

GARRETT/15/







000
FXUS64 KJAN 250405
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1005 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

..WINTER STORM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...

.UPDATE...SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NEXT
18 HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. HEAVY
SNOW AREAS LOOK ON TRACK NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE
IN THAT AREA.

ONE INTERESTING MESOSCALE PHENOMENA HAS BECOME APPARENT THIS EVENING. THE
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT HAVE REMAINED COLDER DUE TO THE ICE IN THE AREA.
THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE DELTA AND FROM
JACKSON TO NATCHEZ. EVEN WITH THE STORM DEVELOPING...THERE IS NO
APPARENT SURFACE WARM ADVECTION TO PUSH THIS AREA OF COLDER AIR OUT
BEFORE PRECIPITATION STARTS LATE TONIGHT. THUS...HAVE ADDED CATAHOULA
AND CONCORDIA PARISHES ALONG WITH COPIAH...JEFFERSON AND ADAMS
COUNTIES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN. THINKING
IS THAT AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE ANY
WARMING TAKES PLACE IN THESE AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KJAN AND KMEI WHILE OTHER
LOCATIONS ARE VFR. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY SNOW AT KGLH...KGWO AND KGTR WITH A
MIX AT KHKS...KJAN AND KMEI. JUST RAIN IS EXPECTED AT KHBG. BESIDES
THE PROBLEMS THAT COME WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION...VSBY SHOULD BE
REDUCED TO AROUND 1/2 MILE AT THE NORTHERN SITES IN MODERATE SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. /SW/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA
AS SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO REACH 4-6 INCHES. THIS NORTHERN SECTION IS
WHERE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS GREATEST AS PRECIP TYPE WILL
LIKELY BE ALL SNOW. MUCH MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ACROSS A
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS WHERE PRECIP TYPE WILL DICTATE
MUCH OF THE IMPACTS. HOWEVER...DETERMINING P-TYPE HERE IS EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT. THE CORRIDOR WHERE THE MOST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH BE 25
MI EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM WINNSBORO LA TO VICKSBURG TO JACKSON TO
DEKALB MS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE
VARIOUS MODEL GUID TO KEEP CONFIDENCE SHAKY FOR THAT ZONE. DUE TO
THIS...THIS CORRIDOR WILL BE PLACED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR MIXED
PRECIP TYPE. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY DON`T SUPPORT FZRA...WE
ARE CONCERNED WITH SFC TEMPS BEING COLDER THAN MODELS SUGGEST AS
RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN POOR AND HAVE STRUGGLED GREATLY
WITH SFC TEMPS. IF TEMPS HOLD COLDER...THEN A PERIOD OF FZRA COULD
OCCUR IN THIS ADV AREA BEFORE A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A RA/SN
SITUATION. FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A RAYVILLE TO YAZOO CITY
TO MACON...WE WILL HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW.
ROUGHLY...2 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WITH LOCATIONS
EMBEDDED IN THE WARNING LIKELY TO SEE 4-6 INCHES. I WILL ADD THAT THE
WINTER SETUP FOR THIS PART OF THE CWA IS A CLASSIC HEAVY SNOW
SITUATION. DYNAMIC COOLING WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE AND HELP OVERCOME ANY
SLIGHT WARM LAYER ALOFT OF 0-2 C. HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH
SFC TEMPS OF 32-34 DEGREES. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM
WILL BE STRONG AND SUPPORT A PERIOD OF THUNDER WITH HEAVY SNOW BANDS
ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THE SNOW
RATES...THUS OUR REASONING FOR MENTIONING TOTALS IN THE 4-6 INCH
RANGE.

AS FOR TIMING...INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP/MOVE IN OVER OUR W/SW BETWEEN 1-3AM WITH A STEADY EXPANSION
OF MORE SOLID PRECIP BETWEEN 4-7AM. HEAVIER PRECIP LOOKS TO TAKE
SHAPE FROM MID MORNING TO THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD E THROUGH THAT
TIME. THE BACK EDGE LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE W BY 1-2 PM AND THEN EXIT
OUR E/NE BY 8-9PM.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHILLY AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD
SOME OF THE COLDER GUID FOR LOWS AND A BLEND OF RAW GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS. EARLY THU MORN COULD BE QUITE COLD IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS.
ADDITIONALLY...HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS MAY BE LIKELY WITH
WET/SNOWY CONDITIONS LEFT OVER AND TEMPS FALLING WELL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE N HALF. ADDITIONALLY...IF CLEARING HAPPENS...SOME
FREEZING FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. MORE ON ALL THIS AS WE GET CLOSER AS
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW WED UNFOLDS. /CME/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY...FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY SATURDAY AND FINALLY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL IN TURN WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THIS TIME WITH
MID 40S TO UPPER 50S HIGHS ON SATURDAY...TO HIGHS IN THE 60S ON
SUNDAY.  THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES DO SUBTLY INCREASE LATER ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE ALSO IS ON THE RISE.  MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE AND LIFT REALLY
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO PUSH
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-WEEK. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY...FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY SATURDAY AND FINALLY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL IN TURN WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THIS
TIME WITH MID 40S TO UPPER 50S HIGHS ON SATURDAY...TO HIGHS IN THE
60S ON SUNDAY.  THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES DO SUBTLY INCREASE LATER ON
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE ALSO IS ON THE RISE.  MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE AND LIFT REALLY
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO PUSH
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       31  35  27  44 /  29 100  13  13
MERIDIAN      30  35  28  46 /  22 100  23  13
VICKSBURG     31  35  26  44 /  40 100  12  12
HATTIESBURG   35  41  30  51 /  31 100  13  11
NATCHEZ       32  37  29  47 /  44 100  12   9
GREENVILLE    29  33  24  39 /  22  97   9  14
GREENWOOD     27  33  24  39 /  17  97  17  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-025>042.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MSZ059-060.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MSZ043>053.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MSZ054.

LA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LAZ007>009-015.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LAZ016-023>026.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-
     075.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 250405
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1005 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

..WINTER STORM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...

.UPDATE...SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NEXT
18 HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. HEAVY
SNOW AREAS LOOK ON TRACK NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE
IN THAT AREA.

ONE INTERESTING MESOSCALE PHENOMENA HAS BECOME APPARENT THIS EVENING. THE
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT HAVE REMAINED COLDER DUE TO THE ICE IN THE AREA.
THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE DELTA AND FROM
JACKSON TO NATCHEZ. EVEN WITH THE STORM DEVELOPING...THERE IS NO
APPARENT SURFACE WARM ADVECTION TO PUSH THIS AREA OF COLDER AIR OUT
BEFORE PRECIPITATION STARTS LATE TONIGHT. THUS...HAVE ADDED CATAHOULA
AND CONCORDIA PARISHES ALONG WITH COPIAH...JEFFERSON AND ADAMS
COUNTIES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN. THINKING
IS THAT AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE ANY
WARMING TAKES PLACE IN THESE AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KJAN AND KMEI WHILE OTHER
LOCATIONS ARE VFR. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY SNOW AT KGLH...KGWO AND KGTR WITH A
MIX AT KHKS...KJAN AND KMEI. JUST RAIN IS EXPECTED AT KHBG. BESIDES
THE PROBLEMS THAT COME WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION...VSBY SHOULD BE
REDUCED TO AROUND 1/2 MILE AT THE NORTHERN SITES IN MODERATE SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. /SW/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA
AS SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO REACH 4-6 INCHES. THIS NORTHERN SECTION IS
WHERE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS GREATEST AS PRECIP TYPE WILL
LIKELY BE ALL SNOW. MUCH MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ACROSS A
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS WHERE PRECIP TYPE WILL DICTATE
MUCH OF THE IMPACTS. HOWEVER...DETERMINING P-TYPE HERE IS EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT. THE CORRIDOR WHERE THE MOST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH BE 25
MI EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM WINNSBORO LA TO VICKSBURG TO JACKSON TO
DEKALB MS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE
VARIOUS MODEL GUID TO KEEP CONFIDENCE SHAKY FOR THAT ZONE. DUE TO
THIS...THIS CORRIDOR WILL BE PLACED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR MIXED
PRECIP TYPE. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY DON`T SUPPORT FZRA...WE
ARE CONCERNED WITH SFC TEMPS BEING COLDER THAN MODELS SUGGEST AS
RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN POOR AND HAVE STRUGGLED GREATLY
WITH SFC TEMPS. IF TEMPS HOLD COLDER...THEN A PERIOD OF FZRA COULD
OCCUR IN THIS ADV AREA BEFORE A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A RA/SN
SITUATION. FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A RAYVILLE TO YAZOO CITY
TO MACON...WE WILL HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW.
ROUGHLY...2 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WITH LOCATIONS
EMBEDDED IN THE WARNING LIKELY TO SEE 4-6 INCHES. I WILL ADD THAT THE
WINTER SETUP FOR THIS PART OF THE CWA IS A CLASSIC HEAVY SNOW
SITUATION. DYNAMIC COOLING WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE AND HELP OVERCOME ANY
SLIGHT WARM LAYER ALOFT OF 0-2 C. HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH
SFC TEMPS OF 32-34 DEGREES. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM
WILL BE STRONG AND SUPPORT A PERIOD OF THUNDER WITH HEAVY SNOW BANDS
ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THE SNOW
RATES...THUS OUR REASONING FOR MENTIONING TOTALS IN THE 4-6 INCH
RANGE.

AS FOR TIMING...INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP/MOVE IN OVER OUR W/SW BETWEEN 1-3AM WITH A STEADY EXPANSION
OF MORE SOLID PRECIP BETWEEN 4-7AM. HEAVIER PRECIP LOOKS TO TAKE
SHAPE FROM MID MORNING TO THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD E THROUGH THAT
TIME. THE BACK EDGE LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE W BY 1-2 PM AND THEN EXIT
OUR E/NE BY 8-9PM.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHILLY AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD
SOME OF THE COLDER GUID FOR LOWS AND A BLEND OF RAW GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS. EARLY THU MORN COULD BE QUITE COLD IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS.
ADDITIONALLY...HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS MAY BE LIKELY WITH
WET/SNOWY CONDITIONS LEFT OVER AND TEMPS FALLING WELL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE N HALF. ADDITIONALLY...IF CLEARING HAPPENS...SOME
FREEZING FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. MORE ON ALL THIS AS WE GET CLOSER AS
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW WED UNFOLDS. /CME/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY...FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY SATURDAY AND FINALLY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL IN TURN WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THIS TIME WITH
MID 40S TO UPPER 50S HIGHS ON SATURDAY...TO HIGHS IN THE 60S ON
SUNDAY.  THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES DO SUBTLY INCREASE LATER ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE ALSO IS ON THE RISE.  MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE AND LIFT REALLY
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO PUSH
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-WEEK. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY...FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY SATURDAY AND FINALLY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL IN TURN WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THIS
TIME WITH MID 40S TO UPPER 50S HIGHS ON SATURDAY...TO HIGHS IN THE
60S ON SUNDAY.  THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES DO SUBTLY INCREASE LATER ON
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE ALSO IS ON THE RISE.  MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE AND LIFT REALLY
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO PUSH
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       31  35  27  44 /  29 100  13  13
MERIDIAN      30  35  28  46 /  22 100  23  13
VICKSBURG     31  35  26  44 /  40 100  12  12
HATTIESBURG   35  41  30  51 /  31 100  13  11
NATCHEZ       32  37  29  47 /  44 100  12   9
GREENVILLE    29  33  24  39 /  22  97   9  14
GREENWOOD     27  33  24  39 /  17  97  17  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-025>042.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MSZ059-060.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MSZ043>053.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MSZ054.

LA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LAZ007>009-015.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LAZ016-023>026.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-
     075.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KJAN 250405
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1005 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

..WINTER STORM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...

.UPDATE...SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NEXT
18 HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. HEAVY
SNOW AREAS LOOK ON TRACK NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE
IN THAT AREA.

ONE INTERESTING MESOSCALE PHENOMENA HAS BECOME APPARENT THIS EVENING. THE
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT HAVE REMAINED COLDER DUE TO THE ICE IN THE AREA.
THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE DELTA AND FROM
JACKSON TO NATCHEZ. EVEN WITH THE STORM DEVELOPING...THERE IS NO
APPARENT SURFACE WARM ADVECTION TO PUSH THIS AREA OF COLDER AIR OUT
BEFORE PRECIPITATION STARTS LATE TONIGHT. THUS...HAVE ADDED CATAHOULA
AND CONCORDIA PARISHES ALONG WITH COPIAH...JEFFERSON AND ADAMS
COUNTIES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN. THINKING
IS THAT AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE ANY
WARMING TAKES PLACE IN THESE AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KJAN AND KMEI WHILE OTHER
LOCATIONS ARE VFR. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY SNOW AT KGLH...KGWO AND KGTR WITH A
MIX AT KHKS...KJAN AND KMEI. JUST RAIN IS EXPECTED AT KHBG. BESIDES
THE PROBLEMS THAT COME WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION...VSBY SHOULD BE
REDUCED TO AROUND 1/2 MILE AT THE NORTHERN SITES IN MODERATE SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. /SW/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA
AS SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO REACH 4-6 INCHES. THIS NORTHERN SECTION IS
WHERE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS GREATEST AS PRECIP TYPE WILL
LIKELY BE ALL SNOW. MUCH MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ACROSS A
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS WHERE PRECIP TYPE WILL DICTATE
MUCH OF THE IMPACTS. HOWEVER...DETERMINING P-TYPE HERE IS EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT. THE CORRIDOR WHERE THE MOST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH BE 25
MI EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM WINNSBORO LA TO VICKSBURG TO JACKSON TO
DEKALB MS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE
VARIOUS MODEL GUID TO KEEP CONFIDENCE SHAKY FOR THAT ZONE. DUE TO
THIS...THIS CORRIDOR WILL BE PLACED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR MIXED
PRECIP TYPE. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY DON`T SUPPORT FZRA...WE
ARE CONCERNED WITH SFC TEMPS BEING COLDER THAN MODELS SUGGEST AS
RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN POOR AND HAVE STRUGGLED GREATLY
WITH SFC TEMPS. IF TEMPS HOLD COLDER...THEN A PERIOD OF FZRA COULD
OCCUR IN THIS ADV AREA BEFORE A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A RA/SN
SITUATION. FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A RAYVILLE TO YAZOO CITY
TO MACON...WE WILL HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW.
ROUGHLY...2 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WITH LOCATIONS
EMBEDDED IN THE WARNING LIKELY TO SEE 4-6 INCHES. I WILL ADD THAT THE
WINTER SETUP FOR THIS PART OF THE CWA IS A CLASSIC HEAVY SNOW
SITUATION. DYNAMIC COOLING WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE AND HELP OVERCOME ANY
SLIGHT WARM LAYER ALOFT OF 0-2 C. HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH
SFC TEMPS OF 32-34 DEGREES. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM
WILL BE STRONG AND SUPPORT A PERIOD OF THUNDER WITH HEAVY SNOW BANDS
ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THE SNOW
RATES...THUS OUR REASONING FOR MENTIONING TOTALS IN THE 4-6 INCH
RANGE.

AS FOR TIMING...INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP/MOVE IN OVER OUR W/SW BETWEEN 1-3AM WITH A STEADY EXPANSION
OF MORE SOLID PRECIP BETWEEN 4-7AM. HEAVIER PRECIP LOOKS TO TAKE
SHAPE FROM MID MORNING TO THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD E THROUGH THAT
TIME. THE BACK EDGE LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE W BY 1-2 PM AND THEN EXIT
OUR E/NE BY 8-9PM.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHILLY AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD
SOME OF THE COLDER GUID FOR LOWS AND A BLEND OF RAW GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS. EARLY THU MORN COULD BE QUITE COLD IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS.
ADDITIONALLY...HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS MAY BE LIKELY WITH
WET/SNOWY CONDITIONS LEFT OVER AND TEMPS FALLING WELL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE N HALF. ADDITIONALLY...IF CLEARING HAPPENS...SOME
FREEZING FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. MORE ON ALL THIS AS WE GET CLOSER AS
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW WED UNFOLDS. /CME/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY...FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY SATURDAY AND FINALLY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL IN TURN WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THIS TIME WITH
MID 40S TO UPPER 50S HIGHS ON SATURDAY...TO HIGHS IN THE 60S ON
SUNDAY.  THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES DO SUBTLY INCREASE LATER ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE ALSO IS ON THE RISE.  MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE AND LIFT REALLY
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO PUSH
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-WEEK. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY...FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY SATURDAY AND FINALLY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL IN TURN WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THIS
TIME WITH MID 40S TO UPPER 50S HIGHS ON SATURDAY...TO HIGHS IN THE
60S ON SUNDAY.  THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES DO SUBTLY INCREASE LATER ON
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE ALSO IS ON THE RISE.  MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE AND LIFT REALLY
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO PUSH
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       31  35  27  44 /  29 100  13  13
MERIDIAN      30  35  28  46 /  22 100  23  13
VICKSBURG     31  35  26  44 /  40 100  12  12
HATTIESBURG   35  41  30  51 /  31 100  13  11
NATCHEZ       32  37  29  47 /  44 100  12   9
GREENVILLE    29  33  24  39 /  22  97   9  14
GREENWOOD     27  33  24  39 /  17  97  17  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-025>042.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MSZ059-060.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MSZ043>053.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MSZ054.

LA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LAZ007>009-015.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LAZ016-023>026.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-
     075.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 250405
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1005 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

..WINTER STORM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...

.UPDATE...SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NEXT
18 HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. HEAVY
SNOW AREAS LOOK ON TRACK NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE
IN THAT AREA.

ONE INTERESTING MESOSCALE PHENOMENA HAS BECOME APPARENT THIS EVENING. THE
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT HAVE REMAINED COLDER DUE TO THE ICE IN THE AREA.
THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE DELTA AND FROM
JACKSON TO NATCHEZ. EVEN WITH THE STORM DEVELOPING...THERE IS NO
APPARENT SURFACE WARM ADVECTION TO PUSH THIS AREA OF COLDER AIR OUT
BEFORE PRECIPITATION STARTS LATE TONIGHT. THUS...HAVE ADDED CATAHOULA
AND CONCORDIA PARISHES ALONG WITH COPIAH...JEFFERSON AND ADAMS
COUNTIES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN. THINKING
IS THAT AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE ANY
WARMING TAKES PLACE IN THESE AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS THIS EVENING AT KJAN AND KMEI WHILE OTHER
LOCATIONS ARE VFR. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY SNOW AT KGLH...KGWO AND KGTR WITH A
MIX AT KHKS...KJAN AND KMEI. JUST RAIN IS EXPECTED AT KHBG. BESIDES
THE PROBLEMS THAT COME WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION...VSBY SHOULD BE
REDUCED TO AROUND 1/2 MILE AT THE NORTHERN SITES IN MODERATE SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. /SW/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA
AS SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO REACH 4-6 INCHES. THIS NORTHERN SECTION IS
WHERE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS GREATEST AS PRECIP TYPE WILL
LIKELY BE ALL SNOW. MUCH MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ACROSS A
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS WHERE PRECIP TYPE WILL DICTATE
MUCH OF THE IMPACTS. HOWEVER...DETERMINING P-TYPE HERE IS EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT. THE CORRIDOR WHERE THE MOST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH BE 25
MI EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM WINNSBORO LA TO VICKSBURG TO JACKSON TO
DEKALB MS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE
VARIOUS MODEL GUID TO KEEP CONFIDENCE SHAKY FOR THAT ZONE. DUE TO
THIS...THIS CORRIDOR WILL BE PLACED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR MIXED
PRECIP TYPE. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY DON`T SUPPORT FZRA...WE
ARE CONCERNED WITH SFC TEMPS BEING COLDER THAN MODELS SUGGEST AS
RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN POOR AND HAVE STRUGGLED GREATLY
WITH SFC TEMPS. IF TEMPS HOLD COLDER...THEN A PERIOD OF FZRA COULD
OCCUR IN THIS ADV AREA BEFORE A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A RA/SN
SITUATION. FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A RAYVILLE TO YAZOO CITY
TO MACON...WE WILL HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW.
ROUGHLY...2 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA WITH LOCATIONS
EMBEDDED IN THE WARNING LIKELY TO SEE 4-6 INCHES. I WILL ADD THAT THE
WINTER SETUP FOR THIS PART OF THE CWA IS A CLASSIC HEAVY SNOW
SITUATION. DYNAMIC COOLING WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE AND HELP OVERCOME ANY
SLIGHT WARM LAYER ALOFT OF 0-2 C. HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH
SFC TEMPS OF 32-34 DEGREES. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM
WILL BE STRONG AND SUPPORT A PERIOD OF THUNDER WITH HEAVY SNOW BANDS
ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THE SNOW
RATES...THUS OUR REASONING FOR MENTIONING TOTALS IN THE 4-6 INCH
RANGE.

AS FOR TIMING...INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP/MOVE IN OVER OUR W/SW BETWEEN 1-3AM WITH A STEADY EXPANSION
OF MORE SOLID PRECIP BETWEEN 4-7AM. HEAVIER PRECIP LOOKS TO TAKE
SHAPE FROM MID MORNING TO THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD E THROUGH THAT
TIME. THE BACK EDGE LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE W BY 1-2 PM AND THEN EXIT
OUR E/NE BY 8-9PM.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHILLY AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD
SOME OF THE COLDER GUID FOR LOWS AND A BLEND OF RAW GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS. EARLY THU MORN COULD BE QUITE COLD IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS.
ADDITIONALLY...HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS MAY BE LIKELY WITH
WET/SNOWY CONDITIONS LEFT OVER AND TEMPS FALLING WELL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE N HALF. ADDITIONALLY...IF CLEARING HAPPENS...SOME
FREEZING FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. MORE ON ALL THIS AS WE GET CLOSER AS
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW WED UNFOLDS. /CME/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY...FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY SATURDAY AND FINALLY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL IN TURN WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THIS TIME WITH
MID 40S TO UPPER 50S HIGHS ON SATURDAY...TO HIGHS IN THE 60S ON
SUNDAY.  THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES DO SUBTLY INCREASE LATER ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE ALSO IS ON THE RISE.  MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE AND LIFT REALLY
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO PUSH
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-WEEK. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY...FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY SATURDAY AND FINALLY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL IN TURN WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THIS
TIME WITH MID 40S TO UPPER 50S HIGHS ON SATURDAY...TO HIGHS IN THE
60S ON SUNDAY.  THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES DO SUBTLY INCREASE LATER ON
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE ALSO IS ON THE RISE.  MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE AND LIFT REALLY
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO PUSH
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       31  35  27  44 /  29 100  13  13
MERIDIAN      30  35  28  46 /  22 100  23  13
VICKSBURG     31  35  26  44 /  40 100  12  12
HATTIESBURG   35  41  30  51 /  31 100  13  11
NATCHEZ       32  37  29  47 /  44 100  12   9
GREENVILLE    29  33  24  39 /  22  97   9  14
GREENWOOD     27  33  24  39 /  17  97  17  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-025>042.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MSZ059-060.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MSZ043>053.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MSZ054.

LA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LAZ007>009-015.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LAZ016-023>026.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-
     075.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KJAN 242215
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
415 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

...WINTER STORM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA AS SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO REACH 4-6 INCHES. THIS NORTHERN SECTION
IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS GREATEST AS PRECIP TYPE WILL
LIKELY BE ALL SNOW. MUCH MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ACROSS A
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS WHERE PRECIP TYPE WILL
DICTATE MUCH OF THE IMPACTS. HOWEVER...DETERMINING P-TYPE HERE IS
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. THE CORRIDOR WHERE THE MOST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH BE 25 MI EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM WINNSBORO LA TO VICKSBURG
TO JACKSON TO DEKALB MS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
DIFFERENCES IN THE VARIOUS MODEL GUID TO KEEP CONFIDENCE SHAKY FOR
THAT ZONE. DUE TO THIS...THIS CORRIDOR WILL BE PLACED IN A WINTER
WEATHER ADV FOR MIXED PRECIP TYPE. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY
DON`T SUPPORT FZRA...WE ARE CONCERNED WITH SFC TEMPS BEING COLDER
THAN MODELS SUGGEST AS RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN POOR AND
HAVE STRUGGLED GREATLY WITH SFC TEMPS. IF TEMPS HOLD COLDER...THEN A
PERIOD OF FZRA COULD OCCUR IN THIS ADV AREA BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A RA/SN SITUATION. FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
RAYVILLE TO YAZOO CITY TO MACON...WE WILL HAVE A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW. ROUGHLY...2 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA WITH LOCATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE WARNING LIKELY TO SEE 4-6
INCHES. I WILL ADD THAT THE WINTER SETUP FOR THIS PART OF THE CWA IS
A CLASSIC HEAVY SNOW SITUATION. DYNAMIC COOLING WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE
AND HELP OVERCOME ANY SLIGHT WARM LAYER ALOFT OF 0-2 C. HEAVY SNOW
WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH SFC TEMPS OF 32-34 DEGREES. THE DYNAMICS WITH
THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG AND SUPPORT A PERIOD OF THUNDER
WITH HEAVY SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS WILL DRAMATICALLY
INCREASE THE SNOW RATES...THUS OUR REASONING FOR MENTIONING TOTALS
IN THE 4-6 INCH RANGE.

AS FOR TIMING...INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP/MOVE IN OVER OUR W/SW BETWEEN 1-3AM WITH A STEADY EXPANSION
OF MORE SOLID PRECIP BETWEEN 4-7AM. HEAVIER PRECIP LOOKS TO TAKE
SHAPE FROM MID MORNING TO THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD E THROUGH THAT
TIME. THE BACK EDGE LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE W BY 1-2 PM AND THEN EXIT
OUR E/NE BY 8-9PM.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHILLY AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD
SOME OF THE COLDER GUID FOR LOWS AND A BLEND OF RAW GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS. EARLY THU MORN COULD BE QUITE COLD IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS.
ADDITIONALLY...HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS MAY BE LIKELY WITH
WET/SNOWY CONDITIONS LEFT OVER AND TEMPS FALLING WELL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE N HALF. ADDITIONALLY...IF CLEARING HAPPENS...SOME
FREEZING FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. MORE ON ALL THIS AS WE GET CLOSER AS
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW WED UNFOLDS. /CME/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY...FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY SATURDAY AND FINALLY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL IN TURN WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THIS TIME WITH
MID 40S TO UPPER 50S HIGHS ON SATURDAY...TO HIGHS IN THE 60S ON
SUNDAY.  THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES DO SUBTLY INCREASE LATER ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE ALSO IS ON THE RISE.  MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE AND LIFT REALLY
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO PUSH
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-WEEK. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY...FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY SATURDAY AND FINALLY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL IN TURN WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THIS
TIME WITH MID 40S TO UPPER 50S HIGHS ON SATURDAY...TO HIGHS IN THE
60S ON SUNDAY.  THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES DO SUBTLY INCREASE LATER ON
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE ALSO IS ON THE RISE.  MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE AND LIFT REALLY
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO PUSH
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       31  35  27  44 /  23 100  13  13
MERIDIAN      30  35  28  46 /  16 100  23  13
VICKSBURG     31  35  26  44 /  34 100  12  12
HATTIESBURG   35  41  30  51 /  25 100  13  11
NATCHEZ       32  37  29  47 /  38 100  12   9
GREENVILLE    29  33  24  39 /  16  97   9  14
GREENWOOD     27  33  24  39 /  11  97  17  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-025>042.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MSZ043>053.

LA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LAZ007>009-015.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LAZ016-023>025.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-
     075.

&&

$$

CME/19






000
FXUS64 KJAN 242215
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
415 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

...WINTER STORM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
AREA AS SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO REACH 4-6 INCHES. THIS NORTHERN SECTION
IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS GREATEST AS PRECIP TYPE WILL
LIKELY BE ALL SNOW. MUCH MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ACROSS A
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE CENTRAL SECTIONS WHERE PRECIP TYPE WILL
DICTATE MUCH OF THE IMPACTS. HOWEVER...DETERMINING P-TYPE HERE IS
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. THE CORRIDOR WHERE THE MOST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH BE 25 MI EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM WINNSBORO LA TO VICKSBURG
TO JACKSON TO DEKALB MS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
DIFFERENCES IN THE VARIOUS MODEL GUID TO KEEP CONFIDENCE SHAKY FOR
THAT ZONE. DUE TO THIS...THIS CORRIDOR WILL BE PLACED IN A WINTER
WEATHER ADV FOR MIXED PRECIP TYPE. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY
DON`T SUPPORT FZRA...WE ARE CONCERNED WITH SFC TEMPS BEING COLDER
THAN MODELS SUGGEST AS RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN POOR AND
HAVE STRUGGLED GREATLY WITH SFC TEMPS. IF TEMPS HOLD COLDER...THEN A
PERIOD OF FZRA COULD OCCUR IN THIS ADV AREA BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A RA/SN SITUATION. FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
RAYVILLE TO YAZOO CITY TO MACON...WE WILL HAVE A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW. ROUGHLY...2 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA WITH LOCATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE WARNING LIKELY TO SEE 4-6
INCHES. I WILL ADD THAT THE WINTER SETUP FOR THIS PART OF THE CWA IS
A CLASSIC HEAVY SNOW SITUATION. DYNAMIC COOLING WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE
AND HELP OVERCOME ANY SLIGHT WARM LAYER ALOFT OF 0-2 C. HEAVY SNOW
WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH SFC TEMPS OF 32-34 DEGREES. THE DYNAMICS WITH
THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG AND SUPPORT A PERIOD OF THUNDER
WITH HEAVY SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS WILL DRAMATICALLY
INCREASE THE SNOW RATES...THUS OUR REASONING FOR MENTIONING TOTALS
IN THE 4-6 INCH RANGE.

AS FOR TIMING...INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP/MOVE IN OVER OUR W/SW BETWEEN 1-3AM WITH A STEADY EXPANSION
OF MORE SOLID PRECIP BETWEEN 4-7AM. HEAVIER PRECIP LOOKS TO TAKE
SHAPE FROM MID MORNING TO THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD E THROUGH THAT
TIME. THE BACK EDGE LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE W BY 1-2 PM AND THEN EXIT
OUR E/NE BY 8-9PM.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHILLY AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD
SOME OF THE COLDER GUID FOR LOWS AND A BLEND OF RAW GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS. EARLY THU MORN COULD BE QUITE COLD IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS.
ADDITIONALLY...HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS MAY BE LIKELY WITH
WET/SNOWY CONDITIONS LEFT OVER AND TEMPS FALLING WELL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE N HALF. ADDITIONALLY...IF CLEARING HAPPENS...SOME
FREEZING FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. MORE ON ALL THIS AS WE GET CLOSER AS
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW WED UNFOLDS. /CME/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY...FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY SATURDAY AND FINALLY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL IN TURN WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THIS TIME WITH
MID 40S TO UPPER 50S HIGHS ON SATURDAY...TO HIGHS IN THE 60S ON
SUNDAY.  THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES DO SUBTLY INCREASE LATER ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE ALSO IS ON THE RISE.  MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE AND LIFT REALLY
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO PUSH
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-WEEK. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY...FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY SATURDAY AND FINALLY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL IN TURN WILL BE ON THE RISE DURING THIS
TIME WITH MID 40S TO UPPER 50S HIGHS ON SATURDAY...TO HIGHS IN THE
60S ON SUNDAY.  THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES DO SUBTLY INCREASE LATER ON
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE ALSO IS ON THE RISE.  MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MOISTURE AND LIFT REALLY
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO PUSH
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       31  35  27  44 /  23 100  13  13
MERIDIAN      30  35  28  46 /  16 100  23  13
VICKSBURG     31  35  26  44 /  34 100  12  12
HATTIESBURG   35  41  30  51 /  25 100  13  11
NATCHEZ       32  37  29  47 /  38 100  12   9
GREENVILLE    29  33  24  39 /  16  97   9  14
GREENWOOD     27  33  24  39 /  11  97  17  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-025>042.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MSZ043>053.

LA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LAZ007>009-015.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LAZ016-023>025.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-
     075.

&&

$$

CME/19







000
FXUS64 KJAN 241556 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
956 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...FOR THE MOST PART...PRECIP IS OVER ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW EXCEPTIONS WITH A REPORT OR TWO
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP BEING SQUEEZED OUT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. LOOK FOR
THAT TO SHUT OFF AS THE LAYER DRIES OUT THROUGH MIDDAY AND THE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN CLOUDY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT LOOK FOR THINNING OF CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH AND SOME
FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL EXIST LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THE MORNING FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO REMOVE THE ADVISORY
WORDING AND ANY MENTION OF PRECIP. LOOK FOR TEMPS TODAY TO SLOWLY
CLIMB WITH MOST OF OUR W/NW STRUGGLING TO REACH 32-34 DEGREES. THE
REST OF THE AREA E/SE HALF WILL SLOWLY WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE FORECAST NOW SHIFTS TO THE NEXT WINTER WEATHER EVENT. THIS LOOKS
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT FORECAST ELEMENTS HAVE NOT BEEN
CHANGED...BUT SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BASED OFF THE LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE. WHILE 2-4 INCHES WILL COVER THE MAIN AXIS...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT SEE A BIT MORE...POSSIBLY CLOSER
TO 6 INCHES. THE FORECAST LATER TODAY WILL TRY AND IRON THESE
DETAILS OUT. ADDITIONALLY...LOOK FOR THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH
TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING BY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...MORE SPECIFICS ON
THIS NEXT EVENT IN THE NEXT FORECAST. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...WINTRY PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT TAF SITES THIS
MORNING.  THAT SAID...A MIX OF IFR...MVFR...AND VFR FLIGHT STATUSES
ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT SITES THIS MORNING AS CEILINGS VARY
ACROSS THE REGION.  THESE CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  PRECIPITATION WILL RE-ENTER
THE FORECAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR (KGLH...KGWO...AND
KGTR)...BUT MORE OF A MIX OF LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW COULD AFFECT
SITES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR (KHKS...KJAN...AND
KMEI).  THESE SCENARIOS WILL OBVIOUSLY RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATION
OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION ON AIRCRAFT...RUNWAYS...AND TARMACS.  WINDS
TODAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS...AND WILL
SUBSIDE TO AROUND 3-5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING TO SEE PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POPPING UP ON RADAR OVER CENTRAL/EAST
AND SOUTH SECTIONS THIS MORNING AS HRRR IS STILL INDICATING SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT LINGERING IN THESE AREAS UNTIL MID MORNING. WILL
KEEP THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY RUNNING UNTIL MID MORNING DUE TO
EXISTING ICE PROBLEMS CONTINUING A BIT LONGER. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE OVER AREAS THAT HAD ICE ACCUMULATIONS. COOLING
DUE TO MELTING...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO A RATHER CHILLY DAY.

MOVING INTO TONIGHT EMPHASIS QUICKLY SWITCHES TO NEXT LOOMING EVENT
ON THE HORIZON. 110 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY MOVE PHASING
COLD CORE LOW...PRESENTLY OVER AZ...EAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO THIS
EVENING. MORE PRECIP TO BEGIN MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD CORE. MAY INITIALLY
HAVE TO PUT UP WITH SOME MORE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER CENTRAL AND
SW SECTIONS AS SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN THESE AREAS
WHEN PRECIP BEGINS.

AS THE COLD CORE NEARS THE AREA...COOLING IN THE COLUMN WILL
INCREASE ALLOWING WIDESPREAD SNOWS TO BREAK OUT OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA. IMPRESSIVE SNOW SOUNDINGS SEEN IN THE EC AND NAM
BUFR DATA...WITH MORE OF A MIXED BAG OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW OVER CENTRAL
SECTIONS THROUGH THE DAY. THE VERTICAL WIND FIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL LEAD TO STRONG ADIABATIC FORCING AND WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH
SNOW AMOUNTS. SOME DIABATIC CONTRIBUTION LOOKS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING 6-7C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OVER
THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS. MAY SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE
HEAVIER BANDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WATCH...BUT ADD A FEW EXTRA
COUNTIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE BASED ON CURRENT EXPECTED AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE CENTRAL SECTIONS THAT OBSERVE THE MIXED BAG WILL SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BEFORE ENDING AS THE COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. ALL PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT./26/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THINGS FINALLY WILL QUIET
DOWN ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS AT LEAST IN THE MID TERM. BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING AND NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY WITH
COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING WHICH WILL MAINLY BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM
A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE ON SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY LOW 70S IN
THE SOUTH. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WITH BOTH OF
THE MODELS INDICATING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.
/15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       36  31  35  29 /   3  45 100  34
MERIDIAN      41  31  37  30 /   4  32 100  42
VICKSBURG     35  31  35  30 /   3  56 100  28
HATTIESBURG   44  35  41  32 /   4  48 100  36
NATCHEZ       37  30  36  31 /   3  68 100  26
GREENVILLE    33  30  33  27 /   0  30  97  27
GREENWOOD     35  29  33  27 /   0  23  97  33

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>045.

LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR LAZ007>009.

AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

CME/19/







000
FXUS64 KJAN 241556 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
956 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...FOR THE MOST PART...PRECIP IS OVER ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW EXCEPTIONS WITH A REPORT OR TWO
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP BEING SQUEEZED OUT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. LOOK FOR
THAT TO SHUT OFF AS THE LAYER DRIES OUT THROUGH MIDDAY AND THE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN CLOUDY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT LOOK FOR THINNING OF CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH AND SOME
FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL EXIST LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN
SECTIONS. THE MORNING FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO REMOVE THE ADVISORY
WORDING AND ANY MENTION OF PRECIP. LOOK FOR TEMPS TODAY TO SLOWLY
CLIMB WITH MOST OF OUR W/NW STRUGGLING TO REACH 32-34 DEGREES. THE
REST OF THE AREA E/SE HALF WILL SLOWLY WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

THE FORECAST NOW SHIFTS TO THE NEXT WINTER WEATHER EVENT. THIS LOOKS
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT FORECAST ELEMENTS HAVE NOT BEEN
CHANGED...BUT SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BASED OFF THE LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE. WHILE 2-4 INCHES WILL COVER THE MAIN AXIS...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT SEE A BIT MORE...POSSIBLY CLOSER
TO 6 INCHES. THE FORECAST LATER TODAY WILL TRY AND IRON THESE
DETAILS OUT. ADDITIONALLY...LOOK FOR THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH
TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING BY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...MORE SPECIFICS ON
THIS NEXT EVENT IN THE NEXT FORECAST. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...WINTRY PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT TAF SITES THIS
MORNING.  THAT SAID...A MIX OF IFR...MVFR...AND VFR FLIGHT STATUSES
ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT SITES THIS MORNING AS CEILINGS VARY
ACROSS THE REGION.  THESE CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  PRECIPITATION WILL RE-ENTER
THE FORECAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR (KGLH...KGWO...AND
KGTR)...BUT MORE OF A MIX OF LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW COULD AFFECT
SITES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR (KHKS...KJAN...AND
KMEI).  THESE SCENARIOS WILL OBVIOUSLY RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATION
OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION ON AIRCRAFT...RUNWAYS...AND TARMACS.  WINDS
TODAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS...AND WILL
SUBSIDE TO AROUND 3-5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING TO SEE PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE POPPING UP ON RADAR OVER CENTRAL/EAST
AND SOUTH SECTIONS THIS MORNING AS HRRR IS STILL INDICATING SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT LINGERING IN THESE AREAS UNTIL MID MORNING. WILL
KEEP THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY RUNNING UNTIL MID MORNING DUE TO
EXISTING ICE PROBLEMS CONTINUING A BIT LONGER. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE OVER AREAS THAT HAD ICE ACCUMULATIONS. COOLING
DUE TO MELTING...PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO A RATHER CHILLY DAY.

MOVING INTO TONIGHT EMPHASIS QUICKLY SWITCHES TO NEXT LOOMING EVENT
ON THE HORIZON. 110 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY MOVE PHASING
COLD CORE LOW...PRESENTLY OVER AZ...EAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO THIS
EVENING. MORE PRECIP TO BEGIN MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD CORE. MAY INITIALLY
HAVE TO PUT UP WITH SOME MORE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER CENTRAL AND
SW SECTIONS AS SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN THESE AREAS
WHEN PRECIP BEGINS.

AS THE COLD CORE NEARS THE AREA...COOLING IN THE COLUMN WILL
INCREASE ALLOWING WIDESPREAD SNOWS TO BREAK OUT OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA. IMPRESSIVE SNOW SOUNDINGS SEEN IN THE EC AND NAM
BUFR DATA...WITH MORE OF A MIXED BAG OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW OVER CENTRAL
SECTIONS THROUGH THE DAY. THE VERTICAL WIND FIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL LEAD TO STRONG ADIABATIC FORCING AND WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH
SNOW AMOUNTS. SOME DIABATIC CONTRIBUTION LOOKS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING 6-7C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OVER
THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS. MAY SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE
HEAVIER BANDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WATCH...BUT ADD A FEW EXTRA
COUNTIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE BASED ON CURRENT EXPECTED AMOUNTS.

EXPECT THE CENTRAL SECTIONS THAT OBSERVE THE MIXED BAG WILL SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BEFORE ENDING AS THE COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. ALL PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT./26/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THINGS FINALLY WILL QUIET
DOWN ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS AT LEAST IN THE MID TERM. BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING AND NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY WITH
COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING WHICH WILL MAINLY BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM
A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE ON SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY LOW 70S IN
THE SOUTH. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WITH BOTH OF
THE MODELS INDICATING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.
/15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       36  31  35  29 /   3  45 100  34
MERIDIAN      41  31  37  30 /   4  32 100  42
VICKSBURG     35  31  35  30 /   3  56 100  28
HATTIESBURG   44  35  41  32 /   4  48 100  36
NATCHEZ       37  30  36  31 /   3  68 100  26
GREENVILLE    33  30  33  27 /   0  30  97  27
GREENWOOD     35  29  33  27 /   0  23  97  33

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>045.

LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR LAZ007>009.

AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

CME/19/






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