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000
FXUS64 KJAN 190959
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
459 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH- RES
MODELS...OVERALL SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS HAVEN`T BEEN MUCH HELP WITH
RECOGNIZING WHAT`S GOING ON RIGHT NOW AND WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE... THE
FORECAST FOR A GOOD BIT OF TODAY AT LEAST WILL BASICALLY BE A BLEND
OF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SAID HIGH-RES MODELS.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS EXITING THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.  AS THIS IS HAPPENING...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT`S SHIFTING EAST
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF MY CWA.  BASED ON THIS
ALONE...I`VE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR TODAY.  THE
THINKING IS...AND HIGH-RES MODELS AGREE...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY FROM MID TO LATE MORNING.  HOWEVER...DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL TREKING EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL CAUSE CONVECTION TO AGAIN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER MY
EAST HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  SOME OF THE STORMS IN MY
WEST...MAINLY THOSE ALONG THE SQUALL LINE...THIS MORNING COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.  HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER.

ONCE THIS CONVECTION EXITS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE
FEW HOURS IN WHICH THERE WILL BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY.  LATE IN THE
DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING HOWEVER... ANOTHER...AND MORE POTENT...
PIECE OF ENERGY AND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPEDING UPON
THE CWA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BE WHEN THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ENTERS THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

THE OVERALL SETUP FOR THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT MORE SO THIS EVENING...HASN`T CHANGED MUCH.  WHILE THIS
MORNING`S ACTIVITY DOES TAKE SOME PUNCH OUT OF THE AIRMASS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD BIT OF RECOVERY
AND INCREASED SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS THIS EVENING AS A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS IN FROM THE WEST.  A BROKEN LINE OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...PERHAPS SOME IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...REMAIN THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.  HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE DELTA
AROUND TO JUST AFTER 7 PM THIS EVENING.  I`LL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
LAYOUT OF THE HWO THIS MORNING AS THE BETTER CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS THE DELTA WHERE SEVERE PARAMETERS LOOK MOST
FAVORABLE.  WHILE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
FURTHER EAST IT MOVES...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DOES EXIST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

AS THE SYSTEM EXITS EAST INTO ALABAMA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
NOTICEABLY COOLER DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE CWA ON MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS LOOKS TO LEAD TO A
BRIEF DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES DO EXIST IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES ACROSS THE REGION.

THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SUNDAY...WITH SUBTLE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW
TRAVERSING THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON.  BETTER RAIN CHANCES COULD
EXIST OVER NEXT WEEKEND AS A TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRIES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION AREA
THIS MORNING RANGE FROM IFR TO VFR.  THIS IS AS A RESULT OF
CONVECTION AND LOW CLOUDS.  WHILE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR...CATEGORIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST AGAIN THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DELTA REGION.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS...BUT AS A FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  61  75  49 /  49  49   6   5
MERIDIAN      81  63  76  48 /  49  48  12   5
VICKSBURG     82  58  74  49 /  58  50   5   5
HATTIESBURG   84  65  80  53 /  46  31  10   5
NATCHEZ       83  60  75  50 /  47  37   3   4
GREENVILLE    79  57  72  48 /  60  64   7   5
GREENWOOD     78  58  72  47 /  60  64  13   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KJAN 190959
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
459 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH- RES
MODELS...OVERALL SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS HAVEN`T BEEN MUCH HELP WITH
RECOGNIZING WHAT`S GOING ON RIGHT NOW AND WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE... THE
FORECAST FOR A GOOD BIT OF TODAY AT LEAST WILL BASICALLY BE A BLEND
OF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SAID HIGH-RES MODELS.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS EXITING THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.  AS THIS IS HAPPENING...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT`S SHIFTING EAST
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF MY CWA.  BASED ON THIS
ALONE...I`VE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR TODAY.  THE
THINKING IS...AND HIGH-RES MODELS AGREE...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY FROM MID TO LATE MORNING.  HOWEVER...DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL TREKING EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL CAUSE CONVECTION TO AGAIN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER MY
EAST HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  SOME OF THE STORMS IN MY
WEST...MAINLY THOSE ALONG THE SQUALL LINE...THIS MORNING COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.  HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER.

ONCE THIS CONVECTION EXITS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE
FEW HOURS IN WHICH THERE WILL BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY.  LATE IN THE
DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING HOWEVER... ANOTHER...AND MORE POTENT...
PIECE OF ENERGY AND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPEDING UPON
THE CWA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BE WHEN THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ENTERS THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

THE OVERALL SETUP FOR THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT MORE SO THIS EVENING...HASN`T CHANGED MUCH.  WHILE THIS
MORNING`S ACTIVITY DOES TAKE SOME PUNCH OUT OF THE AIRMASS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD BIT OF RECOVERY
AND INCREASED SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS THIS EVENING AS A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS IN FROM THE WEST.  A BROKEN LINE OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...PERHAPS SOME IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...REMAIN THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.  HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE DELTA
AROUND TO JUST AFTER 7 PM THIS EVENING.  I`LL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
LAYOUT OF THE HWO THIS MORNING AS THE BETTER CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS THE DELTA WHERE SEVERE PARAMETERS LOOK MOST
FAVORABLE.  WHILE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
FURTHER EAST IT MOVES...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DOES EXIST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

AS THE SYSTEM EXITS EAST INTO ALABAMA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
NOTICEABLY COOLER DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE CWA ON MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS LOOKS TO LEAD TO A
BRIEF DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES DO EXIST IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES ACROSS THE REGION.

THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SUNDAY...WITH SUBTLE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW
TRAVERSING THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON.  BETTER RAIN CHANCES COULD
EXIST OVER NEXT WEEKEND AS A TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRIES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION AREA
THIS MORNING RANGE FROM IFR TO VFR.  THIS IS AS A RESULT OF
CONVECTION AND LOW CLOUDS.  WHILE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR...CATEGORIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST AGAIN THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DELTA REGION.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS...BUT AS A FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  61  75  49 /  49  49   6   5
MERIDIAN      81  63  76  48 /  49  48  12   5
VICKSBURG     82  58  74  49 /  58  50   5   5
HATTIESBURG   84  65  80  53 /  46  31  10   5
NATCHEZ       83  60  75  50 /  47  37   3   4
GREENVILLE    79  57  72  48 /  60  64   7   5
GREENWOOD     78  58  72  47 /  60  64  13   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KJAN 190128
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
828 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST FOR A WET NIGHT IS ON TRACK. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EVEN MORE BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS. IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER JET SUPPORT IS BECOMING
MORE SQUARELY SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND RAIN/TSTM ACTIVITY
IS PRODUCING PRETTY GOOD RAINFALL RATES GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL/NE PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD RAIN/TSRA WILL RESULT IN POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH LOW STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER
ASSURING IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES AT ALL SITES LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO MIX UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG
DISTURBANCE WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE TSRA CONTAINING LARGE HAIL
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE PLAINS
WILL BE APPROACHING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES FROM WEST
TO EAST. THIS EVOLUTION WILL CREATE A SITUATION WHERE CAPE/SHEAR
COMBINATIONS WILL TREND TO BEING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
PRODUCTION...DESPITE A SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE
THAN ISOLATED STORMS. THIS REGIME WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW.

PERSONALLY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A STRAY AND VERY ISOLATED
(YET POTENTIALLY DAMAGING) SUPERCELL MAY AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-20 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR THIS WILL OF COURSE BE
MONITORED...BUT WE STILL ANTICIPATE THE MAIN WINDOW OF SEVERE WEATHER
RISK FOR TOMORROW TO COME IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG A PRE- FRONTAL
TROUGH AXIS SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST. DURING THAT TIME A BROKEN LINE
OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE MOVING INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA BETWEEN
8 AND 10 PM. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THESE ARKLAMISS DELTA
ZONES WILL INITIALLY BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH THE RISK GRADUALLY WANING
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ACTIVITY
PUSHES SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES MORE ISOLATED AND PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER.
HOWEVER...JUST BECAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS
ACTIVITY PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA DOESN`T MEAN ANYBODY IN THE ARKLAMISS
REGION SHOULD IGNORE THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW NIGHT. /BB/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....MONDAY MORNING THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CONSENSUS PLACES THIS COLD FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AT DAYBREAK BUT WL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN IN OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVER OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY NOON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA MONDAY
KNOCKING DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO LAST OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GREATER RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH SOME MAIN FEATURES. THE NORTHERN
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY.
THIS LOW WILL TRY TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
OUR CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT INDUCED SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OF A SECOND CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY LOOKS TO IMPEDE THE COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW LOOK TO COMBINE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING FOR A ROUND OF CONVECTION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPEN THE CLOSED LOW AND
BRING THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY BUT
DIFFER ON THE SURFACE FEATURES WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A MUCH DEEPER
LOW AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR NOW...GREATEST POPS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE CARRIED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. /22/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 190128
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
828 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST FOR A WET NIGHT IS ON TRACK. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EVEN MORE BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS. IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER JET SUPPORT IS BECOMING
MORE SQUARELY SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND RAIN/TSTM ACTIVITY
IS PRODUCING PRETTY GOOD RAINFALL RATES GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL/NE PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD RAIN/TSRA WILL RESULT IN POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH LOW STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER
ASSURING IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES AT ALL SITES LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO MIX UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG
DISTURBANCE WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE TSRA CONTAINING LARGE HAIL
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE PLAINS
WILL BE APPROACHING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES FROM WEST
TO EAST. THIS EVOLUTION WILL CREATE A SITUATION WHERE CAPE/SHEAR
COMBINATIONS WILL TREND TO BEING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
PRODUCTION...DESPITE A SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE
THAN ISOLATED STORMS. THIS REGIME WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW.

PERSONALLY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A STRAY AND VERY ISOLATED
(YET POTENTIALLY DAMAGING) SUPERCELL MAY AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-20 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR THIS WILL OF COURSE BE
MONITORED...BUT WE STILL ANTICIPATE THE MAIN WINDOW OF SEVERE WEATHER
RISK FOR TOMORROW TO COME IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG A PRE- FRONTAL
TROUGH AXIS SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST. DURING THAT TIME A BROKEN LINE
OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE MOVING INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA BETWEEN
8 AND 10 PM. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THESE ARKLAMISS DELTA
ZONES WILL INITIALLY BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH THE RISK GRADUALLY WANING
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ACTIVITY
PUSHES SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES MORE ISOLATED AND PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER.
HOWEVER...JUST BECAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS
ACTIVITY PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA DOESN`T MEAN ANYBODY IN THE ARKLAMISS
REGION SHOULD IGNORE THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW NIGHT. /BB/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....MONDAY MORNING THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CONSENSUS PLACES THIS COLD FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AT DAYBREAK BUT WL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN IN OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVER OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY NOON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA MONDAY
KNOCKING DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO LAST OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GREATER RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH SOME MAIN FEATURES. THE NORTHERN
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY.
THIS LOW WILL TRY TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
OUR CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT INDUCED SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OF A SECOND CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY LOOKS TO IMPEDE THE COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW LOOK TO COMBINE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING FOR A ROUND OF CONVECTION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPEN THE CLOSED LOW AND
BRING THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY BUT
DIFFER ON THE SURFACE FEATURES WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A MUCH DEEPER
LOW AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR NOW...GREATEST POPS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE CARRIED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. /22/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 190128
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
828 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST FOR A WET NIGHT IS ON TRACK. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EVEN MORE BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS. IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER JET SUPPORT IS BECOMING
MORE SQUARELY SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND RAIN/TSTM ACTIVITY
IS PRODUCING PRETTY GOOD RAINFALL RATES GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL/NE PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD RAIN/TSRA WILL RESULT IN POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH LOW STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER
ASSURING IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES AT ALL SITES LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO MIX UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG
DISTURBANCE WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE TSRA CONTAINING LARGE HAIL
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE PLAINS
WILL BE APPROACHING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES FROM WEST
TO EAST. THIS EVOLUTION WILL CREATE A SITUATION WHERE CAPE/SHEAR
COMBINATIONS WILL TREND TO BEING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
PRODUCTION...DESPITE A SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE
THAN ISOLATED STORMS. THIS REGIME WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW.

PERSONALLY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A STRAY AND VERY ISOLATED
(YET POTENTIALLY DAMAGING) SUPERCELL MAY AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-20 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR THIS WILL OF COURSE BE
MONITORED...BUT WE STILL ANTICIPATE THE MAIN WINDOW OF SEVERE WEATHER
RISK FOR TOMORROW TO COME IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG A PRE- FRONTAL
TROUGH AXIS SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST. DURING THAT TIME A BROKEN LINE
OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE MOVING INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA BETWEEN
8 AND 10 PM. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THESE ARKLAMISS DELTA
ZONES WILL INITIALLY BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH THE RISK GRADUALLY WANING
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ACTIVITY
PUSHES SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES MORE ISOLATED AND PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER.
HOWEVER...JUST BECAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS
ACTIVITY PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA DOESN`T MEAN ANYBODY IN THE ARKLAMISS
REGION SHOULD IGNORE THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW NIGHT. /BB/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....MONDAY MORNING THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CONSENSUS PLACES THIS COLD FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AT DAYBREAK BUT WL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN IN OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVER OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY NOON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA MONDAY
KNOCKING DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO LAST OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GREATER RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH SOME MAIN FEATURES. THE NORTHERN
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY.
THIS LOW WILL TRY TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
OUR CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT INDUCED SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OF A SECOND CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY LOOKS TO IMPEDE THE COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW LOOK TO COMBINE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING FOR A ROUND OF CONVECTION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPEN THE CLOSED LOW AND
BRING THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY BUT
DIFFER ON THE SURFACE FEATURES WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A MUCH DEEPER
LOW AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR NOW...GREATEST POPS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE CARRIED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. /22/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 190128
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
828 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST FOR A WET NIGHT IS ON TRACK. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EVEN MORE BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS. IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER JET SUPPORT IS BECOMING
MORE SQUARELY SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND RAIN/TSTM ACTIVITY
IS PRODUCING PRETTY GOOD RAINFALL RATES GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL/NE PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD RAIN/TSRA WILL RESULT IN POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH LOW STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER
ASSURING IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES AT ALL SITES LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO MIX UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONG
DISTURBANCE WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE TSRA CONTAINING LARGE HAIL
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE PLAINS
WILL BE APPROACHING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES FROM WEST
TO EAST. THIS EVOLUTION WILL CREATE A SITUATION WHERE CAPE/SHEAR
COMBINATIONS WILL TREND TO BEING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
PRODUCTION...DESPITE A SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE
THAN ISOLATED STORMS. THIS REGIME WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW.

PERSONALLY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A STRAY AND VERY ISOLATED
(YET POTENTIALLY DAMAGING) SUPERCELL MAY AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-20 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR THIS WILL OF COURSE BE
MONITORED...BUT WE STILL ANTICIPATE THE MAIN WINDOW OF SEVERE WEATHER
RISK FOR TOMORROW TO COME IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG A PRE- FRONTAL
TROUGH AXIS SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST. DURING THAT TIME A BROKEN LINE
OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE MOVING INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA BETWEEN
8 AND 10 PM. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THESE ARKLAMISS DELTA
ZONES WILL INITIALLY BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH THE RISK GRADUALLY WANING
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ACTIVITY
PUSHES SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES MORE ISOLATED AND PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER.
HOWEVER...JUST BECAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS
ACTIVITY PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA DOESN`T MEAN ANYBODY IN THE ARKLAMISS
REGION SHOULD IGNORE THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW NIGHT. /BB/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....MONDAY MORNING THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CONSENSUS PLACES THIS COLD FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AT DAYBREAK BUT WL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN IN OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVER OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY NOON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA MONDAY
KNOCKING DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO LAST OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GREATER RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH SOME MAIN FEATURES. THE NORTHERN
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY.
THIS LOW WILL TRY TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
OUR CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT INDUCED SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OF A SECOND CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY LOOKS TO IMPEDE THE COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW LOOK TO COMBINE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING FOR A ROUND OF CONVECTION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPEN THE CLOSED LOW AND
BRING THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY BUT
DIFFER ON THE SURFACE FEATURES WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A MUCH DEEPER
LOW AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR NOW...GREATEST POPS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE CARRIED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. /22/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 182129
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
425 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION... PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAVE HAD A BIG IMPACT ON THE WEATHER OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...DELAYING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
SOMEWHAT LIMITING INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCTION.
AS I WRITE WE ARE FINALLY SEEING A BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
ARKLATEX GAINS A LITTLE STRENGTH AND PULLS SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT MLCAPE
VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR COMPROMISED BY
ANOMALOUS GULF CONVECTION WILL ONLY SUPPORT OF LIMITED THREAT OF
SEVERE OF WEATHER (AND MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ
TRACE CORRIDOR). IN THESE SAME AREAS LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH NOT A LARGE ENOUGH CONCERN AT
THE MOMENT TO STRONGLY CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE PLAINS
WILL BE APPROACHING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES FROM WEST
TO EAST. THIS EVOLUTION WILL CREATE A SITUATION WHERE CAPE/SHEAR
COMBINATIONS WILL TREND TO BEING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
PRODUCTION...DESPITE A SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE
THAN ISOLATED STORMS. THIS REGIME WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW.
PERSONALLY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A STRAY AND VERY ISOLATED
(YET POTENTIALLY DAMAGING) SUPERCELL MAY AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-20 IN THE AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR THIS WILL OF COURSE BE
MONITORED...BUT WE STILL ANTICIPATE THE MAIN WINDOW OF SEVERE
WEATHER RISK FOR TOMORROW TO COME IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST. DURING THAT TIME A
BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE MOVING INTO THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THESE
ARKLAMISS DELTA ZONES WILL INITIALLY BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH THE RISK
GRADUALLY WANING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES MORE ISOLATED AND
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HOWEVER...JUST BECAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED AS ACTIVITY PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA DOESN`T MEAN
ANYBODY IN THE ARKLAMISS REGION SHOULD IGNORE THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TOMORROW NIGHT. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....MONDAY MORNING THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CONSENSUS PLACES THIS COLD FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AT DAYBREAK BUT WL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN IN OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVER OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY NOON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA MONDAY
KNOCKING DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO LAST OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GREATER RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH SOME MAIN FEATURES. THE NORTHERN
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY.
THIS LOW WILL TRY TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
OUR CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT INDUCED SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OF A SECOND CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY LOOKS TO IMPEDE THE COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW LOOK TO COMBINE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING FOR A ROUND OF CONVECTION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPEN THE CLOSED LOW AND
BRING THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY BUT
DIFFER ON THE SURFACE FEATURES WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A MUCH DEEPER
LOW AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR NOW...GREATEST POPS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE CARRIED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...MOST SITES ARE MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHRA/TSRA ARE
DEVELOPING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING WITH IT OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
AFTER 07-08Z FOR ALL SITES. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY ON SUNDAY./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       64  82  61  74 /  75  25  37   8
MERIDIAN      65  82  63  76 /  62  27  34  11
VICKSBURG     63  81  58  74 /  78  26  38   6
HATTIESBURG   66  84  65  81 /  58  28  19   7
NATCHEZ       64  82  59  74 /  75  24  36   4
GREENVILLE    62  79  57  71 /  50  29  61   7
GREENWOOD     64  80  58  72 /  62  28  59  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/22/15





000
FXUS64 KJAN 182129
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
425 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION... PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAVE HAD A BIG IMPACT ON THE WEATHER OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...DELAYING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
SOMEWHAT LIMITING INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCTION.
AS I WRITE WE ARE FINALLY SEEING A BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
ARKLATEX GAINS A LITTLE STRENGTH AND PULLS SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT MLCAPE
VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR COMPROMISED BY
ANOMALOUS GULF CONVECTION WILL ONLY SUPPORT OF LIMITED THREAT OF
SEVERE OF WEATHER (AND MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ
TRACE CORRIDOR). IN THESE SAME AREAS LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH NOT A LARGE ENOUGH CONCERN AT
THE MOMENT TO STRONGLY CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE PLAINS
WILL BE APPROACHING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES FROM WEST
TO EAST. THIS EVOLUTION WILL CREATE A SITUATION WHERE CAPE/SHEAR
COMBINATIONS WILL TREND TO BEING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
PRODUCTION...DESPITE A SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE
THAN ISOLATED STORMS. THIS REGIME WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW.
PERSONALLY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A STRAY AND VERY ISOLATED
(YET POTENTIALLY DAMAGING) SUPERCELL MAY AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-20 IN THE AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR THIS WILL OF COURSE BE
MONITORED...BUT WE STILL ANTICIPATE THE MAIN WINDOW OF SEVERE
WEATHER RISK FOR TOMORROW TO COME IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST. DURING THAT TIME A
BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE MOVING INTO THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THESE
ARKLAMISS DELTA ZONES WILL INITIALLY BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH THE RISK
GRADUALLY WANING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES MORE ISOLATED AND
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HOWEVER...JUST BECAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED AS ACTIVITY PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA DOESN`T MEAN
ANYBODY IN THE ARKLAMISS REGION SHOULD IGNORE THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TOMORROW NIGHT. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....MONDAY MORNING THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CONSENSUS PLACES THIS COLD FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AT DAYBREAK BUT WL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN IN OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVER OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY NOON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA MONDAY
KNOCKING DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO LAST OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GREATER RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH SOME MAIN FEATURES. THE NORTHERN
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY.
THIS LOW WILL TRY TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
OUR CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT INDUCED SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OF A SECOND CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY LOOKS TO IMPEDE THE COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW LOOK TO COMBINE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING FOR A ROUND OF CONVECTION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPEN THE CLOSED LOW AND
BRING THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY BUT
DIFFER ON THE SURFACE FEATURES WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A MUCH DEEPER
LOW AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR NOW...GREATEST POPS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE CARRIED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...MOST SITES ARE MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHRA/TSRA ARE
DEVELOPING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING WITH IT OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
AFTER 07-08Z FOR ALL SITES. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY ON SUNDAY./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       64  82  61  74 /  75  25  37   8
MERIDIAN      65  82  63  76 /  62  27  34  11
VICKSBURG     63  81  58  74 /  78  26  38   6
HATTIESBURG   66  84  65  81 /  58  28  19   7
NATCHEZ       64  82  59  74 /  75  24  36   4
GREENVILLE    62  79  57  71 /  50  29  61   7
GREENWOOD     64  80  58  72 /  62  28  59  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/22/15




000
FXUS64 KJAN 182129
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
425 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION... PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAVE HAD A BIG IMPACT ON THE WEATHER OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...DELAYING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
SOMEWHAT LIMITING INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCTION.
AS I WRITE WE ARE FINALLY SEEING A BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
ARKLATEX GAINS A LITTLE STRENGTH AND PULLS SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT MLCAPE
VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR COMPROMISED BY
ANOMALOUS GULF CONVECTION WILL ONLY SUPPORT OF LIMITED THREAT OF
SEVERE OF WEATHER (AND MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ
TRACE CORRIDOR). IN THESE SAME AREAS LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH NOT A LARGE ENOUGH CONCERN AT
THE MOMENT TO STRONGLY CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE PLAINS
WILL BE APPROACHING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES FROM WEST
TO EAST. THIS EVOLUTION WILL CREATE A SITUATION WHERE CAPE/SHEAR
COMBINATIONS WILL TREND TO BEING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
PRODUCTION...DESPITE A SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE
THAN ISOLATED STORMS. THIS REGIME WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW.
PERSONALLY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A STRAY AND VERY ISOLATED
(YET POTENTIALLY DAMAGING) SUPERCELL MAY AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-20 IN THE AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR THIS WILL OF COURSE BE
MONITORED...BUT WE STILL ANTICIPATE THE MAIN WINDOW OF SEVERE
WEATHER RISK FOR TOMORROW TO COME IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST. DURING THAT TIME A
BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE MOVING INTO THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THESE
ARKLAMISS DELTA ZONES WILL INITIALLY BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH THE RISK
GRADUALLY WANING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES MORE ISOLATED AND
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HOWEVER...JUST BECAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED AS ACTIVITY PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA DOESN`T MEAN
ANYBODY IN THE ARKLAMISS REGION SHOULD IGNORE THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TOMORROW NIGHT. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....MONDAY MORNING THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CONSENSUS PLACES THIS COLD FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AT DAYBREAK BUT WL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN IN OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVER OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY NOON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA MONDAY
KNOCKING DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO LAST OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GREATER RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH SOME MAIN FEATURES. THE NORTHERN
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY.
THIS LOW WILL TRY TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
OUR CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT INDUCED SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OF A SECOND CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY LOOKS TO IMPEDE THE COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW LOOK TO COMBINE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING FOR A ROUND OF CONVECTION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPEN THE CLOSED LOW AND
BRING THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY BUT
DIFFER ON THE SURFACE FEATURES WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A MUCH DEEPER
LOW AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR NOW...GREATEST POPS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE CARRIED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...MOST SITES ARE MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHRA/TSRA ARE
DEVELOPING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING WITH IT OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
AFTER 07-08Z FOR ALL SITES. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY ON SUNDAY./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       64  82  61  74 /  75  25  37   8
MERIDIAN      65  82  63  76 /  62  27  34  11
VICKSBURG     63  81  58  74 /  78  26  38   6
HATTIESBURG   66  84  65  81 /  58  28  19   7
NATCHEZ       64  82  59  74 /  75  24  36   4
GREENVILLE    62  79  57  71 /  50  29  61   7
GREENWOOD     64  80  58  72 /  62  28  59  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/22/15




000
FXUS64 KJAN 182129
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
425 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION... PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAVE HAD A BIG IMPACT ON THE WEATHER OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...DELAYING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
SOMEWHAT LIMITING INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCTION.
AS I WRITE WE ARE FINALLY SEEING A BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE
ARKLATEX GAINS A LITTLE STRENGTH AND PULLS SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT MLCAPE
VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR COMPROMISED BY
ANOMALOUS GULF CONVECTION WILL ONLY SUPPORT OF LIMITED THREAT OF
SEVERE OF WEATHER (AND MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ
TRACE CORRIDOR). IN THESE SAME AREAS LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH NOT A LARGE ENOUGH CONCERN AT
THE MOMENT TO STRONGLY CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY THE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE PLAINS
WILL BE APPROACHING AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES FROM WEST
TO EAST. THIS EVOLUTION WILL CREATE A SITUATION WHERE CAPE/SHEAR
COMBINATIONS WILL TREND TO BEING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
PRODUCTION...DESPITE A SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE
THAN ISOLATED STORMS. THIS REGIME WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW.
PERSONALLY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A STRAY AND VERY ISOLATED
(YET POTENTIALLY DAMAGING) SUPERCELL MAY AFFECT A FEW LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-20 IN THE AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR THIS WILL OF COURSE BE
MONITORED...BUT WE STILL ANTICIPATE THE MAIN WINDOW OF SEVERE
WEATHER RISK FOR TOMORROW TO COME IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST. DURING THAT TIME A
BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE MOVING INTO THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THESE
ARKLAMISS DELTA ZONES WILL INITIALLY BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH THE RISK
GRADUALLY WANING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES MORE ISOLATED AND
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HOWEVER...JUST BECAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED AS ACTIVITY PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA DOESN`T MEAN
ANYBODY IN THE ARKLAMISS REGION SHOULD IGNORE THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TOMORROW NIGHT. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....MONDAY MORNING THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CONSENSUS PLACES THIS COLD FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AT DAYBREAK BUT WL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN IN OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVER OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY NOON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA MONDAY
KNOCKING DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO LAST OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GREATER RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH SOME MAIN FEATURES. THE NORTHERN
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY.
THIS LOW WILL TRY TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
OUR CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT INDUCED SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OF A SECOND CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY LOOKS TO IMPEDE THE COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW LOOK TO COMBINE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING FOR A ROUND OF CONVECTION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPEN THE CLOSED LOW AND
BRING THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY BUT
DIFFER ON THE SURFACE FEATURES WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A MUCH DEEPER
LOW AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR NOW...GREATEST POPS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE CARRIED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...MOST SITES ARE MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHRA/TSRA ARE
DEVELOPING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING WITH IT OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
AFTER 07-08Z FOR ALL SITES. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY ON SUNDAY./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       64  82  61  74 /  75  25  37   8
MERIDIAN      65  82  63  76 /  62  27  34  11
VICKSBURG     63  81  58  74 /  78  26  38   6
HATTIESBURG   66  84  65  81 /  58  28  19   7
NATCHEZ       64  82  59  74 /  75  24  36   4
GREENVILLE    62  79  57  71 /  50  29  61   7
GREENWOOD     64  80  58  72 /  62  28  59  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/22/15





000
FXUS64 KJAN 181706 AAB
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1200 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE... IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
APPARENT THAT DEEP CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
TO THE WESTERN GULF IS REALLY GOING TO HAMPER VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
STILL NOT CONVINCED THAT MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY INGREDIENTS
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH AT LEAST ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR TO GET A FEW SEVERE STORMS GOING EVENTUALLY WITH A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT PERSISTING AS WELL. FOR THAT REASON WE HAVE DOWNPLAYED
SEVERE POTENTIAL IN ALL AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT IN ALL AREAS (ALTHOUGH KEEPING SOME RISK GOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA). WE WILL WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY TO ADJUST
WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE... THINGS THIS MORNING ARE EVOLVING GENERALLY AS
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH QUESTION MARKS GOING INTO LATE TODAY STILL
PERSIST IN SOME MEASURE OWING TO THUNDERSTORMS ANCHORED TO THE SE LA
COAST. THESE STORMS WERE PREVIOUSLY SPREADING A LIGHT RAIN SHIELD
INTO MY SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS PRECIP HAS
SHRUNK IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. ALSO...VIGOROUS STORMS JUST SOUTH OF
THE COAST HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY LOSING COVERAGE SINCE DAYBREAK AND
THEY SHOULD EBB QUICKLY INTO MIDDAY AS UPPER JET PULLING BACK TO THE
WEST REMOVES MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. HOWEVER...IF SAID
EVOLUTION DOES NOT COME TO PASS WITH HASTE THEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BLOCKING AND CLOUD COVER INTO SOME OF MY SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HINDER
POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS INLAND THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AS WE GO INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.

BUT ASSUMING THE LATTER CAVEAT IS NOT AN ISSUE...LATEST HRRR AND
DOWNSCALED NAM RUNS POINT TO WORRISOME STORMS MOVING INTO MY
SOUTHERN ZONES (ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE MS) ZONES FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL MAINLY
BE AT OR LESS THAN 6 C/KM IN THE H700-H500 LAYER BUT MLCAPE PEAKING
OVER 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN EXPECTED LOW LEVEL AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED STORMS. ONCE AGAIN...A FEW
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THERE IS NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE YET TO GO CHANGING THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTATIONS MUCH. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE
WATCHING TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL SEE IF VERY
RECENT HRRR HINTS THAT SEVERE RISK WILL BE STRONGLY FOCUSING
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE APPEAR SOLID. IF THAT IS THE CASE WE
WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY...BUT EVEN IF WE DO FOCUS THE SEVERE RISK
EVEN MORE CONSIDERABLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES THE RISK OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING PROBLEMS STILL LOOKS TO EXTEND ACROSS A MUCH LARGER PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. /BB/

AVIATION...IFR CATEGORY STRATUS PREVAILS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS HBG. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY MIXING
OUT. SHRA WILL MOSTLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE HEZ-HBG
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG
THE COAST...BUT A NEW ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS
PERSISTING FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
/EC/15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER WEEKEND IS
IN STORE AS TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
ARKLAMISS. THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE INITIATED BY INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE CYCLONIC AND SHEARED FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ALONG THE THE LA COAST WILL DELAY TIMING OF THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES > 1.75
INCHES AND ML CAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT THAT TIME. WITH DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR ON THE INCREASE...STILL EXPECT ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE MOST FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...BUT WILL SAY THAT CONFIDENCE IS A
LITTLE SHAKIER NOW ON THIS SCENARIO BASED ON RECENT HIGH RES GUIDANCE
TRENDS. IF THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTIVE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE AS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MORNING CONVECTION...OR IF IT DEVELOPS FARTHER
EAST...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WOULD IMPACT
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS AND THIS COULD ALLOW THE SEVERE
WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO SHIFT FARTHER NORTH AS WELL. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES TO THIS FORECAST LATER THIS MORNING AS CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION HOPEFULLY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLEAR. /EC/

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS FOR SUNDAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER END
EVENT. WHAT IS STARTING TO BECOME MORE CLEAR IS MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS
TO BE IN A LULL FROM CONVECTION AFTER MORNING ACTIVITY DEPARTS TO THE
EAST AND THE ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE MORE FOCUSED LATER BETWEEN A 5PM
TO 3AM WINDOW. IN THE WAKE OF THE SAT SYSTEM...MUCH STEEPER LAPSE
RATES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA (7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM)(29-31C VERTICAL
TOTALS). ALOFT MUCH COLDER TEMPS WILL MOVE IN WITH H5 READINGS OF -15
TO - 16C. THIS WILL ALL SUPPORT SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AS SFC
HEATING REACHES AROUND 80 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALL SUPPORT VIGOROUS
STORMS WITH ROBUST UPDRAFTS. CONCURRENT WITH THIS WILL BE AN OVERALL
DRIER ATMOSPHERE COLUMN AS WELL WITH PWS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. THIS WILL
LEND TO KEEPING STORMS MORE DISCRETE ALONG WITH AN EASTWARD DEEP
LAYER (0-6KM) SHEAR VECTOR OF 40-50KTS. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR NOT MANY
(ISO/SCT) SUPERCELLS THAT WILL PACK QUITE THE PUNCH. LARGE HAIL >
GOLF BALL SIZE APPEARS VERY POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS WHICH
ALSO COULD BE HIGHER END. DUE TO THIS POSSIBILITY OF SEEING
SIGNIFICANT TYPE WEATHER (>2 IN HAIL)...WILL UP OUR OUTLOOK TO SIG
OVER A DECENT PORTION OF THE NW. ELSEWHERE THE OUTLOOK WILL REMAIN
SIMILAR AS STORMS MAY LOSE SOME POTENCY AS THEY PUSH FURTHER EAST AND
GET LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. /CME/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....MONDAY MORNING THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CONSENSUS PLACES THIS COLD FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AT DAYBREAK BUT WL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN IN OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVER OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY NOON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA MONDAY
KNOCKING DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO LAST OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GREATER RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH SOME MAIN FEATURES. THE NORTHERN
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY.
THIS LOW WILL TRY TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
OUR CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT INDUCED SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OF A SECOND CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY LOOKS TO IMPEDE THE COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW LOOK TO COMBINE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING FOR A ROUND OF CONVECTION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPEN THE CLOSED LOW AND
BRING THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY BUT
DIFFER ON THE SURFACE FEATURES WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A MUCH DEEPER
LOW AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR NOW...GREATEST POPS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE CARRIED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       75  64  81  61 /  84  66  31  39
MERIDIAN      76  65  82  64 /  71  83  37  34
VICKSBURG     73  64  81  59 /  86  49  34  46
HATTIESBURG   77  66  84  65 /  86  78  33  28
NATCHEZ       75  64  82  60 /  91  54  28  42
GREENVILLE    73  63  81  57 /  58  47  49  57
GREENWOOD     74  63  79  59 /  56  55  44  56

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN





000
FXUS64 KJAN 181706 AAB
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1200 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE... IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
APPARENT THAT DEEP CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
TO THE WESTERN GULF IS REALLY GOING TO HAMPER VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
STILL NOT CONVINCED THAT MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY INGREDIENTS
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH AT LEAST ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR TO GET A FEW SEVERE STORMS GOING EVENTUALLY WITH A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT PERSISTING AS WELL. FOR THAT REASON WE HAVE DOWNPLAYED
SEVERE POTENTIAL IN ALL AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT IN ALL AREAS (ALTHOUGH KEEPING SOME RISK GOING IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA). WE WILL WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY TO ADJUST
WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE... THINGS THIS MORNING ARE EVOLVING GENERALLY AS
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH QUESTION MARKS GOING INTO LATE TODAY STILL
PERSIST IN SOME MEASURE OWING TO THUNDERSTORMS ANCHORED TO THE SE LA
COAST. THESE STORMS WERE PREVIOUSLY SPREADING A LIGHT RAIN SHIELD
INTO MY SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS PRECIP HAS
SHRUNK IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. ALSO...VIGOROUS STORMS JUST SOUTH OF
THE COAST HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY LOSING COVERAGE SINCE DAYBREAK AND
THEY SHOULD EBB QUICKLY INTO MIDDAY AS UPPER JET PULLING BACK TO THE
WEST REMOVES MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. HOWEVER...IF SAID
EVOLUTION DOES NOT COME TO PASS WITH HASTE THEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BLOCKING AND CLOUD COVER INTO SOME OF MY SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HINDER
POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS INLAND THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AS WE GO INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.

BUT ASSUMING THE LATTER CAVEAT IS NOT AN ISSUE...LATEST HRRR AND
DOWNSCALED NAM RUNS POINT TO WORRISOME STORMS MOVING INTO MY
SOUTHERN ZONES (ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE MS) ZONES FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL MAINLY
BE AT OR LESS THAN 6 C/KM IN THE H700-H500 LAYER BUT MLCAPE PEAKING
OVER 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN EXPECTED LOW LEVEL AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED STORMS. ONCE AGAIN...A FEW
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THERE IS NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE YET TO GO CHANGING THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTATIONS MUCH. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE
WATCHING TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL SEE IF VERY
RECENT HRRR HINTS THAT SEVERE RISK WILL BE STRONGLY FOCUSING
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE APPEAR SOLID. IF THAT IS THE CASE WE
WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY...BUT EVEN IF WE DO FOCUS THE SEVERE RISK
EVEN MORE CONSIDERABLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES THE RISK OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING PROBLEMS STILL LOOKS TO EXTEND ACROSS A MUCH LARGER PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. /BB/

AVIATION...IFR CATEGORY STRATUS PREVAILS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS HBG. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY MIXING
OUT. SHRA WILL MOSTLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE HEZ-HBG
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG
THE COAST...BUT A NEW ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS
PERSISTING FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
/EC/15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER WEEKEND IS
IN STORE AS TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
ARKLAMISS. THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE INITIATED BY INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE CYCLONIC AND SHEARED FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ALONG THE THE LA COAST WILL DELAY TIMING OF THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES > 1.75
INCHES AND ML CAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT THAT TIME. WITH DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR ON THE INCREASE...STILL EXPECT ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE MOST FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...BUT WILL SAY THAT CONFIDENCE IS A
LITTLE SHAKIER NOW ON THIS SCENARIO BASED ON RECENT HIGH RES GUIDANCE
TRENDS. IF THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTIVE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE AS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MORNING CONVECTION...OR IF IT DEVELOPS FARTHER
EAST...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WOULD IMPACT
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS AND THIS COULD ALLOW THE SEVERE
WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO SHIFT FARTHER NORTH AS WELL. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES TO THIS FORECAST LATER THIS MORNING AS CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION HOPEFULLY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLEAR. /EC/

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS FOR SUNDAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER END
EVENT. WHAT IS STARTING TO BECOME MORE CLEAR IS MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS
TO BE IN A LULL FROM CONVECTION AFTER MORNING ACTIVITY DEPARTS TO THE
EAST AND THE ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE MORE FOCUSED LATER BETWEEN A 5PM
TO 3AM WINDOW. IN THE WAKE OF THE SAT SYSTEM...MUCH STEEPER LAPSE
RATES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA (7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM)(29-31C VERTICAL
TOTALS). ALOFT MUCH COLDER TEMPS WILL MOVE IN WITH H5 READINGS OF -15
TO - 16C. THIS WILL ALL SUPPORT SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AS SFC
HEATING REACHES AROUND 80 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALL SUPPORT VIGOROUS
STORMS WITH ROBUST UPDRAFTS. CONCURRENT WITH THIS WILL BE AN OVERALL
DRIER ATMOSPHERE COLUMN AS WELL WITH PWS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. THIS WILL
LEND TO KEEPING STORMS MORE DISCRETE ALONG WITH AN EASTWARD DEEP
LAYER (0-6KM) SHEAR VECTOR OF 40-50KTS. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR NOT MANY
(ISO/SCT) SUPERCELLS THAT WILL PACK QUITE THE PUNCH. LARGE HAIL >
GOLF BALL SIZE APPEARS VERY POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS WHICH
ALSO COULD BE HIGHER END. DUE TO THIS POSSIBILITY OF SEEING
SIGNIFICANT TYPE WEATHER (>2 IN HAIL)...WILL UP OUR OUTLOOK TO SIG
OVER A DECENT PORTION OF THE NW. ELSEWHERE THE OUTLOOK WILL REMAIN
SIMILAR AS STORMS MAY LOSE SOME POTENCY AS THEY PUSH FURTHER EAST AND
GET LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. /CME/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....MONDAY MORNING THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CONSENSUS PLACES THIS COLD FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AT DAYBREAK BUT WL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN IN OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVER OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY NOON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA MONDAY
KNOCKING DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO LAST OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GREATER RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH SOME MAIN FEATURES. THE NORTHERN
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY.
THIS LOW WILL TRY TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
OUR CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT INDUCED SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OF A SECOND CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY LOOKS TO IMPEDE THE COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW LOOK TO COMBINE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING FOR A ROUND OF CONVECTION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPEN THE CLOSED LOW AND
BRING THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY BUT
DIFFER ON THE SURFACE FEATURES WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A MUCH DEEPER
LOW AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR NOW...GREATEST POPS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE CARRIED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       75  64  81  61 /  84  66  31  39
MERIDIAN      76  65  82  64 /  71  83  37  34
VICKSBURG     73  64  81  59 /  86  49  34  46
HATTIESBURG   77  66  84  65 /  86  78  33  28
NATCHEZ       75  64  82  60 /  91  54  28  42
GREENVILLE    73  63  81  57 /  58  47  49  57
GREENWOOD     74  63  79  59 /  56  55  44  56

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN




000
FXUS64 KJAN 181530 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1025 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE... THINGS THIS MORNING ARE EVOLVING GENERALLY AS
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH QUESTION MARKS GOING INTO LATE TODAY STILL
PERSIST IN SOME MEASURE OWING TO THUNDERSTORMS ANCHORED TO THE SE LA
COAST. THESE STORMS WERE PREVIOUSLY SPREADING A LIGHT RAIN SHIELD
INTO MY SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS PRECIP HAS
SHRUNK IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. ALSO...VIGOROUS STORMS JUST SOUTH OF
THE COAST HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY LOSING COVERAGE SINCE DAYBREAK AND
THEY SHOULD EBB QUICKLY INTO MIDDAY AS UPPER JET PULLING BACK TO THE
WEST REMOVES MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. HOWEVER...IF SAID
EVOLUTION DOES NOT COME TO PASS WITH HASTE THEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BLOCKING AND CLOUD COVER INTO SOME OF MY SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HINDER
POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS INLAND THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AS WE GO INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.

BUT ASSUMING THE LATTER CAVEAT IS NOT AN ISSUE...LATEST HRRR AND
DOWNSCALED NAM RUNS POINT TO WORRISOME STORMS MOVING INTO MY
SOUTHERN ZONES (ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE MS) ZONES FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL MAINLY
BE AT OR LESS THAN 6 C/KM IN THE H700-H500 LAYER BUT MLCAPE PEAKING
OVER 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN EXPECTED LOW LEVEL AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED STORMS. ONCE AGAIN...A FEW
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THERE IS NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE YET TO GO CHANGING THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTATIONS MUCH. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE
WATCHING TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL SEE IF VERY
RECENT HRRR HINTS THAT SEVERE RISK WILL BE STRONGLY FOCUSING
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE APPEAR SOLID. IF THAT IS THE CASE WE
WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY...BUT EVEN IF WE DO FOCUS THE SEVERE RISK
EVEN MORE CONSIDERABLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES THE RISK OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING PROBLEMS STILL LOOKS TO EXTEND ACROSS A MUCH LARGER PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CATEGORY STRATUS PREVAILS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS HBG. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY MIXING
OUT. SHRA WILL MOSTLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE HEZ-HBG
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG
THE COAST...BUT A NEW ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS
PERSISTING FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
/EC/15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER WEEKEND IS
IN STORE AS TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
ARKLAMISS. THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE INITIATED BY INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE CYCLONIC AND SHEARED FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ALONG THE THE LA COAST WILL DELAY TIMING OF THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES > 1.75
INCHES AND ML CAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT THAT TIME. WITH DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR ON THE INCREASE...STILL EXPECT ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE MOST FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...BUT WILL SAY THAT CONFIDENCE IS A
LITTLE SHAKIER NOW ON THIS SCENARIO BASED ON RECENT HIGH RES GUIDANCE
TRENDS. IF THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTIVE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE AS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MORNING CONVECTION...OR IF IT DEVELOPS FARTHER
EAST...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WOULD IMPACT
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS AND THIS COULD ALLOW THE SEVERE
WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO SHIFT FARTHER NORTH AS WELL. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES TO THIS FORECAST LATER THIS MORNING AS CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION HOPEFULLY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLEAR. /EC/

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS FOR SUNDAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER END
EVENT. WHAT IS STARTING TO BECOME MORE CLEAR IS MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS
TO BE IN A LULL FROM CONVECTION AFTER MORNING ACTIVITY DEPARTS TO THE
EAST AND THE ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE MORE FOCUSED LATER BETWEEN A 5PM
TO 3AM WINDOW. IN THE WAKE OF THE SAT SYSTEM...MUCH STEEPER LAPSE
RATES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA (7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM)(29-31C VERTICAL
TOTALS). ALOFT MUCH COLDER TEMPS WILL MOVE IN WITH H5 READINGS OF -15
TO - 16C. THIS WILL ALL SUPPORT SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AS SFC
HEATING REACHES AROUND 80 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALL SUPPORT VIGOROUS
STORMS WITH ROBUST UPDRAFTS. CONCURRENT WITH THIS WILL BE AN OVERALL
DRIER ATMOSPHERE COLUMN AS WELL WITH PWS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. THIS WILL
LEND TO KEEPING STORMS MORE DISCRETE ALONG WITH AN EASTWARD DEEP
LAYER (0-6KM) SHEAR VECTOR OF 40-50KTS. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR NOT MANY
(ISO/SCT) SUPERCELLS THAT WILL PACK QUITE THE PUNCH. LARGE HAIL >
GOLF BALL SIZE APPEARS VERY POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS WHICH
ALSO COULD BE HIGHER END. DUE TO THIS POSSIBILITY OF SEEING
SIGNIFICANT TYPE WEATHER (>2 IN HAIL)...WILL UP OUR OUTLOOK TO SIG
OVER A DECENT PORTION OF THE NW. ELSEWHERE THE OUTLOOK WILL REMAIN
SIMILAR AS STORMS MAY LOSE SOME POTENCY AS THEY PUSH FURTHER EAST AND
GET LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. /CME/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....MONDAY MORNING THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CONSENSUS PLACES THIS COLD FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AT DAYBREAK BUT WL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN IN OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVER OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY NOON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA MONDAY
KNOCKING DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO LAST OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GREATER RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH SOME MAIN FEATURES. THE NORTHERN
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY.
THIS LOW WILL TRY TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
OUR CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT INDUCED SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OF A SECOND CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY LOOKS TO IMPEDE THE COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW LOOK TO COMBINE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING FOR A ROUND OF CONVECTION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPEN THE CLOSED LOW AND
BRING THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY BUT
DIFFER ON THE SURFACE FEATURES WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A MUCH DEEPER
LOW AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR NOW...GREATEST POPS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE CARRIED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       75  64  81  61 /  83  66  31  39
MERIDIAN      76  65  82  64 /  73  78  37  34
VICKSBURG     73  64  81  59 /  87  53  34  46
HATTIESBURG   77  66  84  65 /  87  75  33  28
NATCHEZ       75  64  82  60 /  91  44  28  42
GREENVILLE    73  63  81  57 /  65  72  49  57
GREENWOOD     74  63  79  59 /  61  78  44  56

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/15/EC/22




000
FXUS64 KJAN 181530 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1025 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE... THINGS THIS MORNING ARE EVOLVING GENERALLY AS
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH QUESTION MARKS GOING INTO LATE TODAY STILL
PERSIST IN SOME MEASURE OWING TO THUNDERSTORMS ANCHORED TO THE SE LA
COAST. THESE STORMS WERE PREVIOUSLY SPREADING A LIGHT RAIN SHIELD
INTO MY SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS PRECIP HAS
SHRUNK IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. ALSO...VIGOROUS STORMS JUST SOUTH OF
THE COAST HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY LOSING COVERAGE SINCE DAYBREAK AND
THEY SHOULD EBB QUICKLY INTO MIDDAY AS UPPER JET PULLING BACK TO THE
WEST REMOVES MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. HOWEVER...IF SAID
EVOLUTION DOES NOT COME TO PASS WITH HASTE THEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BLOCKING AND CLOUD COVER INTO SOME OF MY SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HINDER
POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS INLAND THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AS WE GO INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.

BUT ASSUMING THE LATTER CAVEAT IS NOT AN ISSUE...LATEST HRRR AND
DOWNSCALED NAM RUNS POINT TO WORRISOME STORMS MOVING INTO MY
SOUTHERN ZONES (ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE MS) ZONES FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL MAINLY
BE AT OR LESS THAN 6 C/KM IN THE H700-H500 LAYER BUT MLCAPE PEAKING
OVER 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN EXPECTED LOW LEVEL AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED STORMS. ONCE AGAIN...A FEW
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THERE IS NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE YET TO GO CHANGING THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTATIONS MUCH. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE
WATCHING TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL SEE IF VERY
RECENT HRRR HINTS THAT SEVERE RISK WILL BE STRONGLY FOCUSING
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE APPEAR SOLID. IF THAT IS THE CASE WE
WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY...BUT EVEN IF WE DO FOCUS THE SEVERE RISK
EVEN MORE CONSIDERABLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES THE RISK OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING PROBLEMS STILL LOOKS TO EXTEND ACROSS A MUCH LARGER PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CATEGORY STRATUS PREVAILS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS HBG. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY MIXING
OUT. SHRA WILL MOSTLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE HEZ-HBG
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG
THE COAST...BUT A NEW ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS
PERSISTING FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
/EC/15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER WEEKEND IS
IN STORE AS TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
ARKLAMISS. THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE INITIATED BY INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE CYCLONIC AND SHEARED FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ALONG THE THE LA COAST WILL DELAY TIMING OF THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES > 1.75
INCHES AND ML CAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT THAT TIME. WITH DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR ON THE INCREASE...STILL EXPECT ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE MOST FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...BUT WILL SAY THAT CONFIDENCE IS A
LITTLE SHAKIER NOW ON THIS SCENARIO BASED ON RECENT HIGH RES GUIDANCE
TRENDS. IF THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTIVE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE AS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MORNING CONVECTION...OR IF IT DEVELOPS FARTHER
EAST...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WOULD IMPACT
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS AND THIS COULD ALLOW THE SEVERE
WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO SHIFT FARTHER NORTH AS WELL. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES TO THIS FORECAST LATER THIS MORNING AS CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION HOPEFULLY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLEAR. /EC/

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS FOR SUNDAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER END
EVENT. WHAT IS STARTING TO BECOME MORE CLEAR IS MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS
TO BE IN A LULL FROM CONVECTION AFTER MORNING ACTIVITY DEPARTS TO THE
EAST AND THE ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE MORE FOCUSED LATER BETWEEN A 5PM
TO 3AM WINDOW. IN THE WAKE OF THE SAT SYSTEM...MUCH STEEPER LAPSE
RATES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA (7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM)(29-31C VERTICAL
TOTALS). ALOFT MUCH COLDER TEMPS WILL MOVE IN WITH H5 READINGS OF -15
TO - 16C. THIS WILL ALL SUPPORT SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AS SFC
HEATING REACHES AROUND 80 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALL SUPPORT VIGOROUS
STORMS WITH ROBUST UPDRAFTS. CONCURRENT WITH THIS WILL BE AN OVERALL
DRIER ATMOSPHERE COLUMN AS WELL WITH PWS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. THIS WILL
LEND TO KEEPING STORMS MORE DISCRETE ALONG WITH AN EASTWARD DEEP
LAYER (0-6KM) SHEAR VECTOR OF 40-50KTS. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR NOT MANY
(ISO/SCT) SUPERCELLS THAT WILL PACK QUITE THE PUNCH. LARGE HAIL >
GOLF BALL SIZE APPEARS VERY POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS WHICH
ALSO COULD BE HIGHER END. DUE TO THIS POSSIBILITY OF SEEING
SIGNIFICANT TYPE WEATHER (>2 IN HAIL)...WILL UP OUR OUTLOOK TO SIG
OVER A DECENT PORTION OF THE NW. ELSEWHERE THE OUTLOOK WILL REMAIN
SIMILAR AS STORMS MAY LOSE SOME POTENCY AS THEY PUSH FURTHER EAST AND
GET LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. /CME/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....MONDAY MORNING THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CONSENSUS PLACES THIS COLD FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AT DAYBREAK BUT WL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN IN OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVER OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY NOON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA MONDAY
KNOCKING DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO LAST OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GREATER RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH SOME MAIN FEATURES. THE NORTHERN
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY.
THIS LOW WILL TRY TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
OUR CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT INDUCED SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OF A SECOND CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY LOOKS TO IMPEDE THE COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW LOOK TO COMBINE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING FOR A ROUND OF CONVECTION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPEN THE CLOSED LOW AND
BRING THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY BUT
DIFFER ON THE SURFACE FEATURES WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A MUCH DEEPER
LOW AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR NOW...GREATEST POPS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE CARRIED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       75  64  81  61 /  83  66  31  39
MERIDIAN      76  65  82  64 /  73  78  37  34
VICKSBURG     73  64  81  59 /  87  53  34  46
HATTIESBURG   77  66  84  65 /  87  75  33  28
NATCHEZ       75  64  82  60 /  91  44  28  42
GREENVILLE    73  63  81  57 /  65  72  49  57
GREENWOOD     74  63  79  59 /  61  78  44  56

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/15/EC/22




000
FXUS64 KJAN 181530 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1025 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE... THINGS THIS MORNING ARE EVOLVING GENERALLY AS
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH QUESTION MARKS GOING INTO LATE TODAY STILL
PERSIST IN SOME MEASURE OWING TO THUNDERSTORMS ANCHORED TO THE SE LA
COAST. THESE STORMS WERE PREVIOUSLY SPREADING A LIGHT RAIN SHIELD
INTO MY SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS PRECIP HAS
SHRUNK IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. ALSO...VIGOROUS STORMS JUST SOUTH OF
THE COAST HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY LOSING COVERAGE SINCE DAYBREAK AND
THEY SHOULD EBB QUICKLY INTO MIDDAY AS UPPER JET PULLING BACK TO THE
WEST REMOVES MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. HOWEVER...IF SAID
EVOLUTION DOES NOT COME TO PASS WITH HASTE THEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BLOCKING AND CLOUD COVER INTO SOME OF MY SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HINDER
POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS INLAND THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AS WE GO INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.

BUT ASSUMING THE LATTER CAVEAT IS NOT AN ISSUE...LATEST HRRR AND
DOWNSCALED NAM RUNS POINT TO WORRISOME STORMS MOVING INTO MY
SOUTHERN ZONES (ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE MS) ZONES FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL MAINLY
BE AT OR LESS THAN 6 C/KM IN THE H700-H500 LAYER BUT MLCAPE PEAKING
OVER 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN EXPECTED LOW LEVEL AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED STORMS. ONCE AGAIN...A FEW
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THERE IS NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE YET TO GO CHANGING THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTATIONS MUCH. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE
WATCHING TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL SEE IF VERY
RECENT HRRR HINTS THAT SEVERE RISK WILL BE STRONGLY FOCUSING
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE APPEAR SOLID. IF THAT IS THE CASE WE
WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY...BUT EVEN IF WE DO FOCUS THE SEVERE RISK
EVEN MORE CONSIDERABLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES THE RISK OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING PROBLEMS STILL LOOKS TO EXTEND ACROSS A MUCH LARGER PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CATEGORY STRATUS PREVAILS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS HBG. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY MIXING
OUT. SHRA WILL MOSTLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE HEZ-HBG
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG
THE COAST...BUT A NEW ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS
PERSISTING FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
/EC/15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER WEEKEND IS
IN STORE AS TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
ARKLAMISS. THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE INITIATED BY INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE CYCLONIC AND SHEARED FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ALONG THE THE LA COAST WILL DELAY TIMING OF THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES > 1.75
INCHES AND ML CAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT THAT TIME. WITH DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR ON THE INCREASE...STILL EXPECT ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE MOST FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...BUT WILL SAY THAT CONFIDENCE IS A
LITTLE SHAKIER NOW ON THIS SCENARIO BASED ON RECENT HIGH RES GUIDANCE
TRENDS. IF THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTIVE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE AS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MORNING CONVECTION...OR IF IT DEVELOPS FARTHER
EAST...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WOULD IMPACT
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS AND THIS COULD ALLOW THE SEVERE
WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO SHIFT FARTHER NORTH AS WELL. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES TO THIS FORECAST LATER THIS MORNING AS CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION HOPEFULLY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLEAR. /EC/

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS FOR SUNDAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER END
EVENT. WHAT IS STARTING TO BECOME MORE CLEAR IS MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS
TO BE IN A LULL FROM CONVECTION AFTER MORNING ACTIVITY DEPARTS TO THE
EAST AND THE ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE MORE FOCUSED LATER BETWEEN A 5PM
TO 3AM WINDOW. IN THE WAKE OF THE SAT SYSTEM...MUCH STEEPER LAPSE
RATES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA (7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM)(29-31C VERTICAL
TOTALS). ALOFT MUCH COLDER TEMPS WILL MOVE IN WITH H5 READINGS OF -15
TO - 16C. THIS WILL ALL SUPPORT SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AS SFC
HEATING REACHES AROUND 80 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALL SUPPORT VIGOROUS
STORMS WITH ROBUST UPDRAFTS. CONCURRENT WITH THIS WILL BE AN OVERALL
DRIER ATMOSPHERE COLUMN AS WELL WITH PWS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. THIS WILL
LEND TO KEEPING STORMS MORE DISCRETE ALONG WITH AN EASTWARD DEEP
LAYER (0-6KM) SHEAR VECTOR OF 40-50KTS. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR NOT MANY
(ISO/SCT) SUPERCELLS THAT WILL PACK QUITE THE PUNCH. LARGE HAIL >
GOLF BALL SIZE APPEARS VERY POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS WHICH
ALSO COULD BE HIGHER END. DUE TO THIS POSSIBILITY OF SEEING
SIGNIFICANT TYPE WEATHER (>2 IN HAIL)...WILL UP OUR OUTLOOK TO SIG
OVER A DECENT PORTION OF THE NW. ELSEWHERE THE OUTLOOK WILL REMAIN
SIMILAR AS STORMS MAY LOSE SOME POTENCY AS THEY PUSH FURTHER EAST AND
GET LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. /CME/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....MONDAY MORNING THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CONSENSUS PLACES THIS COLD FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AT DAYBREAK BUT WL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN IN OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVER OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY NOON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA MONDAY
KNOCKING DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO LAST OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GREATER RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH SOME MAIN FEATURES. THE NORTHERN
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY.
THIS LOW WILL TRY TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
OUR CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT INDUCED SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OF A SECOND CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY LOOKS TO IMPEDE THE COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW LOOK TO COMBINE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING FOR A ROUND OF CONVECTION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPEN THE CLOSED LOW AND
BRING THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY BUT
DIFFER ON THE SURFACE FEATURES WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A MUCH DEEPER
LOW AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR NOW...GREATEST POPS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE CARRIED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       75  64  81  61 /  83  66  31  39
MERIDIAN      76  65  82  64 /  73  78  37  34
VICKSBURG     73  64  81  59 /  87  53  34  46
HATTIESBURG   77  66  84  65 /  87  75  33  28
NATCHEZ       75  64  82  60 /  91  44  28  42
GREENVILLE    73  63  81  57 /  65  72  49  57
GREENWOOD     74  63  79  59 /  61  78  44  56

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/15/EC/22





000
FXUS64 KJAN 180954
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
454 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER WEEKEND IS
IN STORE AS TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
ARKLAMISS. THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE INITIATED BY INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE CYCLONIC AND SHEARED FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ALONG THE THE LA COAST WILL DELAY TIMING OF THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES > 1.75
INCHES AND ML CAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT THAT TIME. WITH DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR ON THE INCREASE...STILL EXPECT ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE MOST FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...BUT WILL SAY THAT CONFIDENCE IS A
LITTLE SHAKIER NOW ON THIS SCENARIO BASED ON RECENT HIGH RES GUIDANCE
TRENDS. IF THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTIVE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE AS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MORNING CONVECTION...OR IF IT DEVELOPS FARTHER
EAST...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WOULD IMPACT
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS AND THIS COULD ALLOW THE SEVERE
WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO SHIFT FARTHER NORTH AS WELL. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES TO THIS FORECAST LATER THIS MORNING AS CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION HOPEFULLY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLEAR. /EC/

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS FOR SUNDAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER END
EVENT. WHAT IS STARTING TO BECOME MORE CLEAR IS MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS
TO BE IN A LULL FROM CONVECTION AFTER MORNING ACTIVITY DEPARTS TO THE
EAST AND THE ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE MORE FOCUSED LATER BETWEEN A 5PM
TO 3AM WINDOW. IN THE WAKE OF THE SAT SYSTEM...MUCH STEEPER LAPSE
RATES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA (7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM)(29-31C VERTICAL
TOTALS). ALOFT MUCH COLDER TEMPS WILL MOVE IN WITH H5 READINGS OF -15
TO - 16C. THIS WILL ALL SUPPORT SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AS SFC
HEATING REACHES AROUND 80 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALL SUPPORT VIGOROUS
STORMS WITH ROBUST UPDRAFTS. CONCURRENT WITH THIS WILL BE AN OVERALL
DRIER ATMOSPHERE COLUMN AS WELL WITH PWS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. THIS WILL
LEND TO KEEPING STORMS MORE DISCRETE ALONG WITH AN EASTWARD DEEP
LAYER (0-6KM) SHEAR VECTOR OF 40-50KTS. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR NOT MANY
(ISO/SCT) SUPERCELLS THAT WILL PACK QUITE THE PUNCH. LARGE HAIL >
GOLF BALL SIZE APPEARS VERY POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS WHICH
ALSO COULD BE HIGHER END. DUE TO THIS POSSIBILITY OF SEEING
SIGNIFICANT TYPE WEATHER (>2 IN HAIL)...WILL UP OUR OUTLOOK TO SIG
OVER A DECENT PORTION OF THE NW. ELSEWHERE THE OUTLOOK WILL REMAIN
SIMILAR AS STORMS MAY LOSE SOME POTENCY AS THEY PUSH FURTHER EAST AND
GET LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. /CME/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....MONDAY MORNING THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CONSENSUS PLACES THIS COLD FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AT DAYBREAK BUT WL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN IN OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVER OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY NOON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA MONDAY
KNOCKING DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO LAST OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GREATER RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH SOME MAIN FEATURES. THE NORTHERN
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY.
THIS LOW WILL TRY TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
OUR CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT INDUCED SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OF A SECOND CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY LOOKS TO IMPEDE THE COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW LOOK TO COMBINE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING FOR A ROUND OF CONVECTION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPEN THE CLOSED LOW AND
BRING THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY BUT
DIFFER ON THE SURFACE FEATURES WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A MUCH DEEPER
LOW AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR NOW...GREATEST POPS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE CARRIED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...THE USUAL MEDLEY OF IFR/LIFR CATEGORY STRATUS AND FOG
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS
TO PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING BEFORE MIXING UP TO MVFR LATE THIS
MORNING AND EVENTUALLY VFR CATEGORY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA
WILL MOSTLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE HEZ-HBG CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE
COAST...BUT A NEW ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS
PERSISTING FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  64  81  61 /  83  67  31  39
MERIDIAN      74  65  82  64 /  73  70  37  34
VICKSBURG     74  64  81  59 /  87  52  34  46
HATTIESBURG   76  66  84  65 /  87  67  33  28
NATCHEZ       75  64  82  60 /  91  45  28  42
GREENVILLE    74  63  81  57 /  65  71  49  57
GREENWOOD     74  63  79  59 /  61  78  44  56

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

EC/CME/22/EC




000
FXUS64 KJAN 180954
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
454 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER WEEKEND IS
IN STORE AS TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
ARKLAMISS. THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE INITIATED BY INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE CYCLONIC AND SHEARED FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ALONG THE THE LA COAST WILL DELAY TIMING OF THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES > 1.75
INCHES AND ML CAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT THAT TIME. WITH DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR ON THE INCREASE...STILL EXPECT ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE MOST FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...BUT WILL SAY THAT CONFIDENCE IS A
LITTLE SHAKIER NOW ON THIS SCENARIO BASED ON RECENT HIGH RES GUIDANCE
TRENDS. IF THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTIVE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE AS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MORNING CONVECTION...OR IF IT DEVELOPS FARTHER
EAST...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WOULD IMPACT
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS AND THIS COULD ALLOW THE SEVERE
WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO SHIFT FARTHER NORTH AS WELL. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES TO THIS FORECAST LATER THIS MORNING AS CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION HOPEFULLY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLEAR. /EC/

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS FOR SUNDAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER END
EVENT. WHAT IS STARTING TO BECOME MORE CLEAR IS MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS
TO BE IN A LULL FROM CONVECTION AFTER MORNING ACTIVITY DEPARTS TO THE
EAST AND THE ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE MORE FOCUSED LATER BETWEEN A 5PM
TO 3AM WINDOW. IN THE WAKE OF THE SAT SYSTEM...MUCH STEEPER LAPSE
RATES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA (7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM)(29-31C VERTICAL
TOTALS). ALOFT MUCH COLDER TEMPS WILL MOVE IN WITH H5 READINGS OF -15
TO - 16C. THIS WILL ALL SUPPORT SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AS SFC
HEATING REACHES AROUND 80 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALL SUPPORT VIGOROUS
STORMS WITH ROBUST UPDRAFTS. CONCURRENT WITH THIS WILL BE AN OVERALL
DRIER ATMOSPHERE COLUMN AS WELL WITH PWS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. THIS WILL
LEND TO KEEPING STORMS MORE DISCRETE ALONG WITH AN EASTWARD DEEP
LAYER (0-6KM) SHEAR VECTOR OF 40-50KTS. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR NOT MANY
(ISO/SCT) SUPERCELLS THAT WILL PACK QUITE THE PUNCH. LARGE HAIL >
GOLF BALL SIZE APPEARS VERY POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS WHICH
ALSO COULD BE HIGHER END. DUE TO THIS POSSIBILITY OF SEEING
SIGNIFICANT TYPE WEATHER (>2 IN HAIL)...WILL UP OUR OUTLOOK TO SIG
OVER A DECENT PORTION OF THE NW. ELSEWHERE THE OUTLOOK WILL REMAIN
SIMILAR AS STORMS MAY LOSE SOME POTENCY AS THEY PUSH FURTHER EAST AND
GET LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. /CME/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....MONDAY MORNING THE LARGE
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CONSENSUS PLACES THIS COLD FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AT DAYBREAK BUT WL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN IN OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVER OVERHEAD. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY NOON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA MONDAY
KNOCKING DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO LAST OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
WEDNESDAY AND THE RESULTING RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AGAIN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GREATER RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH SOME MAIN FEATURES. THE NORTHERN
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY.
THIS LOW WILL TRY TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO
OUR CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT INDUCED SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM OF A SECOND CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY LOOKS TO IMPEDE THE COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW LOOK TO COMBINE WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING FOR A ROUND OF CONVECTION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPEN THE CLOSED LOW AND
BRING THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY BUT
DIFFER ON THE SURFACE FEATURES WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A MUCH DEEPER
LOW AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR NOW...GREATEST POPS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE CARRIED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...THE USUAL MEDLEY OF IFR/LIFR CATEGORY STRATUS AND FOG
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS
TO PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING BEFORE MIXING UP TO MVFR LATE THIS
MORNING AND EVENTUALLY VFR CATEGORY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA
WILL MOSTLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE HEZ-HBG CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE
COAST...BUT A NEW ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS
PERSISTING FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  64  81  61 /  83  67  31  39
MERIDIAN      74  65  82  64 /  73  70  37  34
VICKSBURG     74  64  81  59 /  87  52  34  46
HATTIESBURG   76  66  84  65 /  87  67  33  28
NATCHEZ       75  64  82  60 /  91  45  28  42
GREENVILLE    74  63  81  57 /  65  71  49  57
GREENWOOD     74  63  79  59 /  61  78  44  56

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

EC/CME/22/EC





000
FXUS64 KJAN 180224 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
924 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...EXPECTING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE TOMORROW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 60S. AS FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST...ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE
CWA FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AND MADE MINOR
CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS EVENING. /27/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A REPEAT OF IFR CATEGORY STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME
FOG LATER TONIGHT PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY MORNING BEFORE MIXING UP
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR CATEGORY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA
COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SO EXPECT A POOR DAY FOR FLYING
OVERALL. /EC/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCV HAS KEPT
CONVECTION AT BAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON AND SCOURED OUT
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WE HAVE HAD THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE EXCEPTION
HAS BEEN A FEW STORMS IN E MS ALONG A LEFT OVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO NOSE OF 300 MB 75 KNOT JET STREAK. WHILE LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT...CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG
AND 25-30 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET OVERNIGHT ONCE THE EVENING
CONVECTION SUBSIDES. MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL CRANK BACK UP EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF STRONG SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. MODEL DATA SHOWING OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE AREA OVER THE UPPER
TX/LA COAST ALONG MARINE LAYER BOUNDARY WITH STRATIFORM PRECIP
BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SW AT DAWN.

QUESTION MARKS EXIST AT PRESENT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY.
PRESENTLY...CONVECTIVE BLOB EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVERNIGHT. IF THIS SLOWS DOWN AND STAGNATES
ALONG THE MS/LA COAST...BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND ADVANCE
OF MARINE LAYER NORTHWARD MAY NOT OCCUR. PRESENTLY EXPECTING THE
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE RACING EASING EAST ALONG ITS DIFFERENTIAL
DIVERGENCE BULLSEYE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO RESET QUICKER
WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THE MARINE LAYER BOUNDARY ADVANCING
NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG WILL
POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES NORTH FROM S LA/S MS...BUT LAPSE
RATES ARE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC IN THE DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS (PW
VALUES NEAR 2 IN). NEVERTHELESS...0-1 KM SRH VALUES ARE RANGING FROM
250-300 M2/S2 IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY WITH LOW LCLS WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW TORNADOES. SOME THREAT OF
WIND AS WELL FROM PRECIP LOADING...BUT TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED.

WHILE THE HEAVY RAINFALL RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THE
CONVECTIVE AREA MOVES NE...TORNADO RISK WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH THE
LOSS OF ANY REMAINING INSTABILITY. /26/

MODELS FOR SUNDAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER END EVENT. WHAT IS STARTING TO
BECOME MORE CLEAR IS MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE IN A LULL FROM
CONVECTION AFTER MORNING ACTIVITY DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE ROUND
OF STORMS WILL BE MORE FOCUSED LATER BETWEEN A 5PM TO 3AM WINDOW. IN
THE WAKE OF THE SAT SYSTEM...MUCH STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD
OVER THE AREA (7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM)(29-31C VERTICAL TOTALS). ALOFT MUCH
COLDER TEMPS WILL MOVE IN WITH H5 READINGS OF -15 TO - 16C. THIS WILL
ALL SUPPORT SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AS SFC HEATING REACHES AROUND 80
DEGREES. THIS WILL ALL SUPPORT VIGOROUS STORMS WITH ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
CONCURRENT WITH THIS WILL BE AN OVERALL DRIER ATMOSPHERE COLUMN AS
WELL WITH PWS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. THIS WILL LEND TO KEEPING STORMS
MORE DISCRETE ALONG WITH AN EASTWARD DEEP LAYER (0-6KM) SHEAR VECTOR
OF 40-50KTS. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR NOT MANY (ISO/SCT) SUPERCELLS THAT
WILL PACK QUITE THE PUNCH. LARGE HAIL > GOLF BALL SIZE APPEARS VERY
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS WHICH ALSO COULD BE HIGHER END.
DUE TO THIS POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT TYPE WEATHER (>2 IN
HAIL)...WILL UP OUR OUTLOOK TO SIG OVER A DECENT PORTION OF THE NW.
ELSEWHERE THE OUTLOOK WILL REMAIN SIMILAR AS STORMS MAY LOSE SOME
POTENCY AS THEY PUSH FURTHER EAST AND GET LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
/CME/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       63  73  63  80 /  18  86  69  40
MERIDIAN      61  75  66  80 /  17  86  77  47
VICKSBURG     63  74  61  81 /  24  86  72  40
HATTIESBURG   64  74  68  83 /  24  86  65  49
NATCHEZ       65  74  62  81 /  36  86  54  40
GREENVILLE    62  75  61  78 /  17  72  79  39
GREENWOOD     61  75  63  79 /  18  68  83  38

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 180224 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
924 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...EXPECTING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE TOMORROW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 60S. AS FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST...ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE
CWA FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AND MADE MINOR
CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS EVENING. /27/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A REPEAT OF IFR CATEGORY STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME
FOG LATER TONIGHT PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY MORNING BEFORE MIXING UP
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR CATEGORY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA
COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SO EXPECT A POOR DAY FOR FLYING
OVERALL. /EC/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCV HAS KEPT
CONVECTION AT BAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON AND SCOURED OUT
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WE HAVE HAD THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE EXCEPTION
HAS BEEN A FEW STORMS IN E MS ALONG A LEFT OVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO NOSE OF 300 MB 75 KNOT JET STREAK. WHILE LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT...CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG
AND 25-30 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET OVERNIGHT ONCE THE EVENING
CONVECTION SUBSIDES. MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL CRANK BACK UP EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF STRONG SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. MODEL DATA SHOWING OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE AREA OVER THE UPPER
TX/LA COAST ALONG MARINE LAYER BOUNDARY WITH STRATIFORM PRECIP
BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SW AT DAWN.

QUESTION MARKS EXIST AT PRESENT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY.
PRESENTLY...CONVECTIVE BLOB EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVERNIGHT. IF THIS SLOWS DOWN AND STAGNATES
ALONG THE MS/LA COAST...BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND ADVANCE
OF MARINE LAYER NORTHWARD MAY NOT OCCUR. PRESENTLY EXPECTING THE
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE RACING EASING EAST ALONG ITS DIFFERENTIAL
DIVERGENCE BULLSEYE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO RESET QUICKER
WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THE MARINE LAYER BOUNDARY ADVANCING
NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG WILL
POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES NORTH FROM S LA/S MS...BUT LAPSE
RATES ARE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC IN THE DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS (PW
VALUES NEAR 2 IN). NEVERTHELESS...0-1 KM SRH VALUES ARE RANGING FROM
250-300 M2/S2 IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY WITH LOW LCLS WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW TORNADOES. SOME THREAT OF
WIND AS WELL FROM PRECIP LOADING...BUT TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED.

WHILE THE HEAVY RAINFALL RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THE
CONVECTIVE AREA MOVES NE...TORNADO RISK WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH THE
LOSS OF ANY REMAINING INSTABILITY. /26/

MODELS FOR SUNDAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER END EVENT. WHAT IS STARTING TO
BECOME MORE CLEAR IS MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE IN A LULL FROM
CONVECTION AFTER MORNING ACTIVITY DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE ROUND
OF STORMS WILL BE MORE FOCUSED LATER BETWEEN A 5PM TO 3AM WINDOW. IN
THE WAKE OF THE SAT SYSTEM...MUCH STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD
OVER THE AREA (7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM)(29-31C VERTICAL TOTALS). ALOFT MUCH
COLDER TEMPS WILL MOVE IN WITH H5 READINGS OF -15 TO - 16C. THIS WILL
ALL SUPPORT SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AS SFC HEATING REACHES AROUND 80
DEGREES. THIS WILL ALL SUPPORT VIGOROUS STORMS WITH ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
CONCURRENT WITH THIS WILL BE AN OVERALL DRIER ATMOSPHERE COLUMN AS
WELL WITH PWS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. THIS WILL LEND TO KEEPING STORMS
MORE DISCRETE ALONG WITH AN EASTWARD DEEP LAYER (0-6KM) SHEAR VECTOR
OF 40-50KTS. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR NOT MANY (ISO/SCT) SUPERCELLS THAT
WILL PACK QUITE THE PUNCH. LARGE HAIL > GOLF BALL SIZE APPEARS VERY
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS WHICH ALSO COULD BE HIGHER END.
DUE TO THIS POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT TYPE WEATHER (>2 IN
HAIL)...WILL UP OUR OUTLOOK TO SIG OVER A DECENT PORTION OF THE NW.
ELSEWHERE THE OUTLOOK WILL REMAIN SIMILAR AS STORMS MAY LOSE SOME
POTENCY AS THEY PUSH FURTHER EAST AND GET LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
/CME/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       63  73  63  80 /  18  86  69  40
MERIDIAN      61  75  66  80 /  17  86  77  47
VICKSBURG     63  74  61  81 /  24  86  72  40
HATTIESBURG   64  74  68  83 /  24  86  65  49
NATCHEZ       65  74  62  81 /  36  86  54  40
GREENVILLE    62  75  61  78 /  17  72  79  39
GREENWOOD     61  75  63  79 /  18  68  83  38

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 180224 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
924 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...EXPECTING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE TOMORROW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 60S. AS FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST...ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE
CWA FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AND MADE MINOR
CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS EVENING. /27/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A REPEAT OF IFR CATEGORY STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME
FOG LATER TONIGHT PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY MORNING BEFORE MIXING UP
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR CATEGORY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA
COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SO EXPECT A POOR DAY FOR FLYING
OVERALL. /EC/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCV HAS KEPT
CONVECTION AT BAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON AND SCOURED OUT
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WE HAVE HAD THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE EXCEPTION
HAS BEEN A FEW STORMS IN E MS ALONG A LEFT OVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO NOSE OF 300 MB 75 KNOT JET STREAK. WHILE LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT...CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG
AND 25-30 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET OVERNIGHT ONCE THE EVENING
CONVECTION SUBSIDES. MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL CRANK BACK UP EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF STRONG SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. MODEL DATA SHOWING OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE AREA OVER THE UPPER
TX/LA COAST ALONG MARINE LAYER BOUNDARY WITH STRATIFORM PRECIP
BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SW AT DAWN.

QUESTION MARKS EXIST AT PRESENT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY.
PRESENTLY...CONVECTIVE BLOB EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVERNIGHT. IF THIS SLOWS DOWN AND STAGNATES
ALONG THE MS/LA COAST...BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND ADVANCE
OF MARINE LAYER NORTHWARD MAY NOT OCCUR. PRESENTLY EXPECTING THE
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE RACING EASING EAST ALONG ITS DIFFERENTIAL
DIVERGENCE BULLSEYE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO RESET QUICKER
WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THE MARINE LAYER BOUNDARY ADVANCING
NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG WILL
POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES NORTH FROM S LA/S MS...BUT LAPSE
RATES ARE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC IN THE DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS (PW
VALUES NEAR 2 IN). NEVERTHELESS...0-1 KM SRH VALUES ARE RANGING FROM
250-300 M2/S2 IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY WITH LOW LCLS WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW TORNADOES. SOME THREAT OF
WIND AS WELL FROM PRECIP LOADING...BUT TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED.

WHILE THE HEAVY RAINFALL RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THE
CONVECTIVE AREA MOVES NE...TORNADO RISK WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH THE
LOSS OF ANY REMAINING INSTABILITY. /26/

MODELS FOR SUNDAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER END EVENT. WHAT IS STARTING TO
BECOME MORE CLEAR IS MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE IN A LULL FROM
CONVECTION AFTER MORNING ACTIVITY DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE ROUND
OF STORMS WILL BE MORE FOCUSED LATER BETWEEN A 5PM TO 3AM WINDOW. IN
THE WAKE OF THE SAT SYSTEM...MUCH STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD
OVER THE AREA (7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM)(29-31C VERTICAL TOTALS). ALOFT MUCH
COLDER TEMPS WILL MOVE IN WITH H5 READINGS OF -15 TO - 16C. THIS WILL
ALL SUPPORT SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AS SFC HEATING REACHES AROUND 80
DEGREES. THIS WILL ALL SUPPORT VIGOROUS STORMS WITH ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
CONCURRENT WITH THIS WILL BE AN OVERALL DRIER ATMOSPHERE COLUMN AS
WELL WITH PWS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. THIS WILL LEND TO KEEPING STORMS
MORE DISCRETE ALONG WITH AN EASTWARD DEEP LAYER (0-6KM) SHEAR VECTOR
OF 40-50KTS. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR NOT MANY (ISO/SCT) SUPERCELLS THAT
WILL PACK QUITE THE PUNCH. LARGE HAIL > GOLF BALL SIZE APPEARS VERY
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS WHICH ALSO COULD BE HIGHER END.
DUE TO THIS POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT TYPE WEATHER (>2 IN
HAIL)...WILL UP OUR OUTLOOK TO SIG OVER A DECENT PORTION OF THE NW.
ELSEWHERE THE OUTLOOK WILL REMAIN SIMILAR AS STORMS MAY LOSE SOME
POTENCY AS THEY PUSH FURTHER EAST AND GET LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
/CME/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       63  73  63  80 /  18  86  69  40
MERIDIAN      61  75  66  80 /  17  86  77  47
VICKSBURG     63  74  61  81 /  24  86  72  40
HATTIESBURG   64  74  68  83 /  24  86  65  49
NATCHEZ       65  74  62  81 /  36  86  54  40
GREENVILLE    62  75  61  78 /  17  72  79  39
GREENWOOD     61  75  63  79 /  18  68  83  38

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 180224 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
924 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...EXPECTING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE TOMORROW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 60S. AS FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST...ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE
CWA FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AND MADE MINOR
CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS EVENING. /27/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A REPEAT OF IFR CATEGORY STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME
FOG LATER TONIGHT PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY MORNING BEFORE MIXING UP
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR CATEGORY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA
COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING WITH
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SO EXPECT A POOR DAY FOR FLYING
OVERALL. /EC/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCV HAS KEPT
CONVECTION AT BAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON AND SCOURED OUT
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WE HAVE HAD THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE EXCEPTION
HAS BEEN A FEW STORMS IN E MS ALONG A LEFT OVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO NOSE OF 300 MB 75 KNOT JET STREAK. WHILE LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT...CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG
AND 25-30 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET OVERNIGHT ONCE THE EVENING
CONVECTION SUBSIDES. MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL CRANK BACK UP EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF STRONG SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. MODEL DATA SHOWING OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE AREA OVER THE UPPER
TX/LA COAST ALONG MARINE LAYER BOUNDARY WITH STRATIFORM PRECIP
BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SW AT DAWN.

QUESTION MARKS EXIST AT PRESENT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY.
PRESENTLY...CONVECTIVE BLOB EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVERNIGHT. IF THIS SLOWS DOWN AND STAGNATES
ALONG THE MS/LA COAST...BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND ADVANCE
OF MARINE LAYER NORTHWARD MAY NOT OCCUR. PRESENTLY EXPECTING THE
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE RACING EASING EAST ALONG ITS DIFFERENTIAL
DIVERGENCE BULLSEYE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO RESET QUICKER
WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THE MARINE LAYER BOUNDARY ADVANCING
NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG WILL
POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES NORTH FROM S LA/S MS...BUT LAPSE
RATES ARE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC IN THE DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS (PW
VALUES NEAR 2 IN). NEVERTHELESS...0-1 KM SRH VALUES ARE RANGING FROM
250-300 M2/S2 IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY WITH LOW LCLS WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW TORNADOES. SOME THREAT OF
WIND AS WELL FROM PRECIP LOADING...BUT TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED.

WHILE THE HEAVY RAINFALL RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THE
CONVECTIVE AREA MOVES NE...TORNADO RISK WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH THE
LOSS OF ANY REMAINING INSTABILITY. /26/

MODELS FOR SUNDAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER END EVENT. WHAT IS STARTING TO
BECOME MORE CLEAR IS MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE IN A LULL FROM
CONVECTION AFTER MORNING ACTIVITY DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE ROUND
OF STORMS WILL BE MORE FOCUSED LATER BETWEEN A 5PM TO 3AM WINDOW. IN
THE WAKE OF THE SAT SYSTEM...MUCH STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD
OVER THE AREA (7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM)(29-31C VERTICAL TOTALS). ALOFT MUCH
COLDER TEMPS WILL MOVE IN WITH H5 READINGS OF -15 TO - 16C. THIS WILL
ALL SUPPORT SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AS SFC HEATING REACHES AROUND 80
DEGREES. THIS WILL ALL SUPPORT VIGOROUS STORMS WITH ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
CONCURRENT WITH THIS WILL BE AN OVERALL DRIER ATMOSPHERE COLUMN AS
WELL WITH PWS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. THIS WILL LEND TO KEEPING STORMS
MORE DISCRETE ALONG WITH AN EASTWARD DEEP LAYER (0-6KM) SHEAR VECTOR
OF 40-50KTS. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR NOT MANY (ISO/SCT) SUPERCELLS THAT
WILL PACK QUITE THE PUNCH. LARGE HAIL > GOLF BALL SIZE APPEARS VERY
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS WHICH ALSO COULD BE HIGHER END.
DUE TO THIS POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT TYPE WEATHER (>2 IN
HAIL)...WILL UP OUR OUTLOOK TO SIG OVER A DECENT PORTION OF THE NW.
ELSEWHERE THE OUTLOOK WILL REMAIN SIMILAR AS STORMS MAY LOSE SOME
POTENCY AS THEY PUSH FURTHER EAST AND GET LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
/CME/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       63  73  63  80 /  18  86  69  40
MERIDIAN      61  75  66  80 /  17  86  77  47
VICKSBURG     63  74  61  81 /  24  86  72  40
HATTIESBURG   64  74  68  83 /  24  86  65  49
NATCHEZ       65  74  62  81 /  36  86  54  40
GREENVILLE    62  75  61  78 /  17  72  79  39
GREENWOOD     61  75  63  79 /  18  68  83  38

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 172200
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
500 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCV HAS KEPT
CONVECTION AT BAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON AND SCOURED OUT
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WE HAVE HAD THE LAST FEW DAAYS. THE EXCEPTION
HAS BEEN A FEW STORMS IN E MS ALONG A LEFT OVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO NOSE OF 300 MB 75 KNOT JET STREAK. WHILE LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT...CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG
AND 25-30 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET OVERNIGHT ONCE THE EVENING
CONVECTION SUBSIDES. MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL CRANK BACK UP EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF STRONG SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. MODEL DATA SHOWING OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE AREA OVER THE UPPER
TX/LA COAST ALONG MARINE LAYER BOUNDARY WITH STRATIFORM PRECIP
BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SW AT DAWN.

QUESTION MARKS EXIST AT PRESENT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY.
PRESENTLY...CONVECTIVE BLOB EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVERNIGHT. IF THIS SLOWS DOWN AND STAGNATES
ALONG THE MS/LA COAST...BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND ADVANCE
OF MARINE LAYER NORTHWARD MAY NOT OCCUR. PRESENTLY EXPECTING THE
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE RACING EASING EAST ALONG ITS DIFFERENTIAL
DIVERGENCE BULLSEYE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO RESET QUICKER
WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THE MARINE LAYER BOUNDARY ADVANCING NORTHWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG WILL POOL ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES NORTH FROM S LA/S MS...BUT LAPSE RATES ARE
NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC IN THE DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS (PW VALUES NEAR 2
IN). NEVERTHELESS...0-1 KM SRH VALUES ARE RANGING FROM 250-300 M2/S2
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY WITH LOW LCLS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW TORNADOES. SOME THREAT OF WIND AS WELL
FROM PRECIP LOADING...BUT TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE PRIMARILY
EXPECTED.

WHILE THE HEAVY RAINFALL RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THE
CONVECTIVE AREA MOVES NE...TORNADO RISK WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH THE
LOSS OF ANY REMAINING INSTABILITY. /26/

MODELS FOR SUNDAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER END EVENT. WHAT
IS STARTING TO BECOME MORE CLEAR IS MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE IN A
LULL FROM CONVECTION AFTER MORNING ACTIVITY DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND
THE ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE MORE FOCUSED LATER BETWEEN A 5PM TO 3AM
WINDOW. IN THE WAKE OF THE SAT SYSTEM...MUCH STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA (7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM)(29-31C VERTICAL TOTALS). ALOFT
MUCH COLDER TEMPS WILL MOVE IN WITH H5 READINGS OF -15 TO - 16C. THIS
WILL ALL SUPPORT SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AS SFC HEATING REACHES
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALL SUPPORT VIGOROUS STORMS WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS. CONCURRENT WITH THIS WILL BE AN OVERALL DRIER ATMOSPHERE
COLUMN AS WELL WITH PWS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. THIS WILL LEND TO KEEPING
STORMS MORE DISCRETE ALONG WITH AN EASTWARD DEEP LAYER (0-6KM) SHEAR
VECTOR OF 40-50KTS. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR NOT MANY (ISO/SCT)
SUPERCELLS THAT WILL PACK QUITE THE PUNCH. LARGE HAIL > GOLF BALL
SIZE APPEARS VERY POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS WHICH ALSO COULD
BE HIGHER END. DUE TO THIS POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT TYPE
WEATHER (>2 IN HAIL)...WILL UP OUR OUTLOOK TO SIG OVER A DECENT
PORTION OF THE NW. ELSEWHERE THE OUTLOOK WILL REMAIN SIMILAR AS
STORMS MAY LOSE SOME POTENCY AS THEY PUSH FURTHER EAST AND GET LATER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...SOME VCTS IN PROXIMITY TO MEI/HBG SHOULD END BY 18/06Z.
OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL LOWER TO MVFRIFR ONCE AGAIN
AFTER 18/06Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 15Z...BUT
INCREASING TSRA AFTER 18/18Z WILL TEND TO CAUSE CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE AGAIN./26


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       63  73  63  80 /  18  86  69  40
MERIDIAN      61  75  66  80 /  17  86  77  47
VICKSBURG     63  74  61  81 /  24  86  72  40
HATTIESBURG   64  74  68  83 /  24  86  65  49
NATCHEZ       65  74  62  81 /  36  86  54  40
GREENVILLE    62  75  61  78 /  17  72  79  39
GREENWOOD     61  75  63  79 /  18  68  83  38

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 172200
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
500 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCV HAS KEPT
CONVECTION AT BAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON AND SCOURED OUT
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WE HAVE HAD THE LAST FEW DAAYS. THE EXCEPTION
HAS BEEN A FEW STORMS IN E MS ALONG A LEFT OVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO NOSE OF 300 MB 75 KNOT JET STREAK. WHILE LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT...CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG
AND 25-30 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET OVERNIGHT ONCE THE EVENING
CONVECTION SUBSIDES. MID/UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL CRANK BACK UP EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF STRONG SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. MODEL DATA SHOWING OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE AREA OVER THE UPPER
TX/LA COAST ALONG MARINE LAYER BOUNDARY WITH STRATIFORM PRECIP
BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SW AT DAWN.

QUESTION MARKS EXIST AT PRESENT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY.
PRESENTLY...CONVECTIVE BLOB EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVERNIGHT. IF THIS SLOWS DOWN AND STAGNATES
ALONG THE MS/LA COAST...BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND ADVANCE
OF MARINE LAYER NORTHWARD MAY NOT OCCUR. PRESENTLY EXPECTING THE
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE RACING EASING EAST ALONG ITS DIFFERENTIAL
DIVERGENCE BULLSEYE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO RESET QUICKER
WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THE MARINE LAYER BOUNDARY ADVANCING NORTHWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG WILL POOL ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES NORTH FROM S LA/S MS...BUT LAPSE RATES ARE
NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC IN THE DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS (PW VALUES NEAR 2
IN). NEVERTHELESS...0-1 KM SRH VALUES ARE RANGING FROM 250-300 M2/S2
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY WITH LOW LCLS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW TORNADOES. SOME THREAT OF WIND AS WELL
FROM PRECIP LOADING...BUT TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE PRIMARILY
EXPECTED.

WHILE THE HEAVY RAINFALL RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THE
CONVECTIVE AREA MOVES NE...TORNADO RISK WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH THE
LOSS OF ANY REMAINING INSTABILITY. /26/

MODELS FOR SUNDAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER END EVENT. WHAT
IS STARTING TO BECOME MORE CLEAR IS MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS TO BE IN A
LULL FROM CONVECTION AFTER MORNING ACTIVITY DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND
THE ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE MORE FOCUSED LATER BETWEEN A 5PM TO 3AM
WINDOW. IN THE WAKE OF THE SAT SYSTEM...MUCH STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
SPREAD OVER THE AREA (7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM)(29-31C VERTICAL TOTALS). ALOFT
MUCH COLDER TEMPS WILL MOVE IN WITH H5 READINGS OF -15 TO - 16C. THIS
WILL ALL SUPPORT SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AS SFC HEATING REACHES
AROUND 80 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALL SUPPORT VIGOROUS STORMS WITH ROBUST
UPDRAFTS. CONCURRENT WITH THIS WILL BE AN OVERALL DRIER ATMOSPHERE
COLUMN AS WELL WITH PWS AROUND 1.2 INCHES. THIS WILL LEND TO KEEPING
STORMS MORE DISCRETE ALONG WITH AN EASTWARD DEEP LAYER (0-6KM) SHEAR
VECTOR OF 40-50KTS. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR NOT MANY (ISO/SCT)
SUPERCELLS THAT WILL PACK QUITE THE PUNCH. LARGE HAIL > GOLF BALL
SIZE APPEARS VERY POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS WHICH ALSO COULD
BE HIGHER END. DUE TO THIS POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT TYPE
WEATHER (>2 IN HAIL)...WILL UP OUR OUTLOOK TO SIG OVER A DECENT
PORTION OF THE NW. ELSEWHERE THE OUTLOOK WILL REMAIN SIMILAR AS
STORMS MAY LOSE SOME POTENCY AS THEY PUSH FURTHER EAST AND GET LATER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...SOME VCTS IN PROXIMITY TO MEI/HBG SHOULD END BY 18/06Z.
OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL LOWER TO MVFRIFR ONCE AGAIN
AFTER 18/06Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 15Z...BUT
INCREASING TSRA AFTER 18/18Z WILL TEND TO CAUSE CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE AGAIN./26


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       63  73  63  80 /  18  86  69  40
MERIDIAN      61  75  66  80 /  17  86  77  47
VICKSBURG     63  74  61  81 /  24  86  72  40
HATTIESBURG   64  74  68  83 /  24  86  65  49
NATCHEZ       65  74  62  81 /  36  86  54  40
GREENVILLE    62  75  61  78 /  17  72  79  39
GREENWOOD     61  75  63  79 /  18  68  83  38

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 171609 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1109 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...MCV OVER THE DELTA REGION THIS MORNING SLOWLY LIFTING OUT
TO THE NE. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES ON ITS WARM ADVECTION
SIDE. TO THE SOUTH OF IT...75 KNOT H3 JET HAS PUNCHED INTO N LA/WC MS
WITH A GOOD SUBSIDENT HOLE IN THIS AREA NOTED IN THE WV IMAGERY.

BEST COVERGAE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM ADVECTION
SIDE OF MCV OVER EAST AND N MS THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING
MAINLY SCATTERED AIRMASS CONVECTION IN AREAS THAT MANAGE TO GET A
LITTLE SUN AND WARMTH.

WE ARE SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT SOME SEVERE POSSIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE SE QUARTER. INCREASED VENTING FROM JET ENERGY
DURING MAX HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SOME UPDRAFTS TO BECOME ROBUST. LAPSE
RATES AND VERTICAL TOTALS DO NOT GET OUTLANDISH...BUT THERE WILL BE A
LOCALIZED MAXIMA IN THIS AREA AS MLCAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG WITH
35-40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR./26/


&&


.AVIATION...MVFR FLIGHT CATS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AT MOST SITES AROUND THE REGION WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXPECT MAY BE AT
GWO AND GTR WHERE CURRENT FLIGHT CATS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS ARE IFR
AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON (AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT) MAY
NEVER COME). WINDS WILL TEND TO BE QUITE VARIABLE IN MANY AREAS
THANKS TO A WEAK BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE AREA WAFFLING AROUND IN
THE VICINITY. FORTUNATELY...THESE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 15
MPH. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MS. /BB/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS IT CONTINUED TO
SEND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CWA FOR OUR UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN. ON THE SURFACE A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE REGION. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WITH SHOWERS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20. OUR ANOMALOUS PWATS WILL CONTINUE FROM 1.7 TO NEAR
2 INCHES.

FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY AROUND EXPECT
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL LIFT
BY MID MORNING. THE HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION INTERSECTING THE WEAK BOUNDARY AND
20-30 KNOTS OF 850 MB FLOW...WHICH WILL PROMOTE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS...WHICH WILL CUT OFF MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION WITH SOME
DECENT RAINFALL RATES. THERE MAY A BE A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE
SOUTH WITH WEAK LAPSE RATE AND SOME WEAK SHEAR.   AS WE GO INTO THE
NIGHT TIME HOURS HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS WE GO FARTHER INTO THE NIGHT AS
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. SO WITH THAT IN
MIND PUT IN ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ELEMENTS START TO WOUND UP ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS TIME WE WILL NOT GET CUT OFF FROM THE SOUTH. HIRES
AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS AT LEAST 3 WAVES OF CONVECTION WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE CWA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE HIRES MODELS
SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST HALF DURING THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
SHEAR FOR BRIEF TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND SOME FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWATS...DECENT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THINGS
SHOULD START TO WOUND DOWN SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FAR AS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS CONCERN.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 60S. FOR TODAY PUT HIGHER POPS SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION WILL BE AND LESSER POPS FARTHER NORTH.
ON SATURDAY PUT DEFINITE POPS EVERYWHERE WITH THE CROSSING OF THE
WAVES OF CONVECTION./17/

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION DURING
THE COURSE OF SUNDAY MORNING.  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
REMAIN PREDOMINATELY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...NOTED BY
PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES FALLING TO AROUND ONE INCH.

THAT SAID...A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN IMPEDING UPON THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY CAUSING A COLD
FRONT TO PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION...
A SPOKE OR TWO OF ENERGY WILL PIVOT EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA
AS EARLY AS MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

DURING THE TIME...THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO AROUND
80 AND DEW POINTS STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S YIELDING SUFFICENT
LEVELS OF INSTABILITY (2500-3000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE)...VERY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-8 C/KM) AND IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL
TOTALS (29-31C)...AND THE PRESENCE OF 40-45 KNOTS DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...WILL BRING A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  THESE STORMS COULD BE
QUITE ROBUST SUPERCELLS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  AGAIN...THERE`S A VERY SMALL TORNADIC RISK WITH
THIS SETUP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD IT TO THE HWO.

THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES.  BEHIND THE FRONT...NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS
LOOKS TO PROVIDE US WITH A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.  WARM ADVECTION ENSUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH LATE WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES
CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROCHES FROM THE WEST. /19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       77  64  75  65 /  35  33  85  76
MERIDIAN      78  63  76  65 /  57  23  85  83
VICKSBURG     78  66  75  64 /  19  42  88  74
HATTIESBURG   80  65  76  66 /  47  32  85  69
NATCHEZ       79  66  77  65 /  13  53  83  62
GREENVILLE    77  65  74  64 /  58  28  86  74
GREENWOOD     78  64  75  64 /  57  23  87  83

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 171609 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1109 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...MCV OVER THE DELTA REGION THIS MORNING SLOWLY LIFTING OUT
TO THE NE. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES ON ITS WARM ADVECTION
SIDE. TO THE SOUTH OF IT...75 KNOT H3 JET HAS PUNCHED INTO N LA/WC MS
WITH A GOOD SUBSIDENT HOLE IN THIS AREA NOTED IN THE WV IMAGERY.

BEST COVERGAE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM ADVECTION
SIDE OF MCV OVER EAST AND N MS THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING
MAINLY SCATTERED AIRMASS CONVECTION IN AREAS THAT MANAGE TO GET A
LITTLE SUN AND WARMTH.

WE ARE SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT SOME SEVERE POSSIBILITIES THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE SE QUARTER. INCREASED VENTING FROM JET ENERGY
DURING MAX HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SOME UPDRAFTS TO BECOME ROBUST. LAPSE
RATES AND VERTICAL TOTALS DO NOT GET OUTLANDISH...BUT THERE WILL BE A
LOCALIZED MAXIMA IN THIS AREA AS MLCAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG WITH
35-40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR./26/


&&


.AVIATION...MVFR FLIGHT CATS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS AT MOST SITES AROUND THE REGION WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXPECT MAY BE AT
GWO AND GTR WHERE CURRENT FLIGHT CATS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS ARE IFR
AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON (AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT) MAY
NEVER COME). WINDS WILL TEND TO BE QUITE VARIABLE IN MANY AREAS
THANKS TO A WEAK BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE AREA WAFFLING AROUND IN
THE VICINITY. FORTUNATELY...THESE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 15
MPH. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MS. /BB/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS IT CONTINUED TO
SEND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CWA FOR OUR UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN. ON THE SURFACE A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE REGION. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WITH SHOWERS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20. OUR ANOMALOUS PWATS WILL CONTINUE FROM 1.7 TO NEAR
2 INCHES.

FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY AROUND EXPECT
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL LIFT
BY MID MORNING. THE HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION INTERSECTING THE WEAK BOUNDARY AND
20-30 KNOTS OF 850 MB FLOW...WHICH WILL PROMOTE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS...WHICH WILL CUT OFF MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION WITH SOME
DECENT RAINFALL RATES. THERE MAY A BE A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE
SOUTH WITH WEAK LAPSE RATE AND SOME WEAK SHEAR.   AS WE GO INTO THE
NIGHT TIME HOURS HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS WE GO FARTHER INTO THE NIGHT AS
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. SO WITH THAT IN
MIND PUT IN ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ELEMENTS START TO WOUND UP ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS TIME WE WILL NOT GET CUT OFF FROM THE SOUTH. HIRES
AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS AT LEAST 3 WAVES OF CONVECTION WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE CWA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE HIRES MODELS
SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST HALF DURING THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
SHEAR FOR BRIEF TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND SOME FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWATS...DECENT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THINGS
SHOULD START TO WOUND DOWN SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FAR AS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS CONCERN.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 60S. FOR TODAY PUT HIGHER POPS SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION WILL BE AND LESSER POPS FARTHER NORTH.
ON SATURDAY PUT DEFINITE POPS EVERYWHERE WITH THE CROSSING OF THE
WAVES OF CONVECTION./17/

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION DURING
THE COURSE OF SUNDAY MORNING.  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
REMAIN PREDOMINATELY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...NOTED BY
PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES FALLING TO AROUND ONE INCH.

THAT SAID...A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN IMPEDING UPON THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY CAUSING A COLD
FRONT TO PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION...
A SPOKE OR TWO OF ENERGY WILL PIVOT EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA
AS EARLY AS MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

DURING THE TIME...THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO AROUND
80 AND DEW POINTS STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S YIELDING SUFFICENT
LEVELS OF INSTABILITY (2500-3000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE)...VERY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-8 C/KM) AND IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL
TOTALS (29-31C)...AND THE PRESENCE OF 40-45 KNOTS DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...WILL BRING A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  THESE STORMS COULD BE
QUITE ROBUST SUPERCELLS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  AGAIN...THERE`S A VERY SMALL TORNADIC RISK WITH
THIS SETUP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD IT TO THE HWO.

THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES.  BEHIND THE FRONT...NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS
LOOKS TO PROVIDE US WITH A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.  WARM ADVECTION ENSUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH LATE WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES
CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROCHES FROM THE WEST. /19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       77  64  75  65 /  35  33  85  76
MERIDIAN      78  63  76  65 /  57  23  85  83
VICKSBURG     78  66  75  64 /  19  42  88  74
HATTIESBURG   80  65  76  66 /  47  32  85  69
NATCHEZ       79  66  77  65 /  13  53  83  62
GREENVILLE    77  65  74  64 /  58  28  86  74
GREENWOOD     78  64  75  64 /  57  23  87  83

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 170837
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
336 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS IT CONTINUED TO
SEND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CWA FOR OUR UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN. ON THE SURFACE A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE REGION. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WITH SHOWERS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20. OUR ANOMALOUS PWATS WILL CONTINUE FROM 1.7 TO NEAR
2 INCHES.

FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY AROUND EXPECT
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL LIFT
BY MID MORNING. THE HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION INTERSECTING THE WEAK BOUNDARY AND
20-30 KNOTS OF 850 MB FLOW...WHICH WILL PROMOTE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS...WHICH WILL CUT OFF MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION WITH SOME
DECENT RAINFALL RATES. THERE MAY A BE A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE
SOUTH WITH WEAK LAPSE RATE AND SOME WEAK SHEAR.   AS WE GO INTO THE
NIGHT TIME HOURS HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS WE GO FARTHER INTO THE NIGHT AS
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. SO WITH THAT IN
MIND PUT IN ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ELEMENTS START TO WOUND UP ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS TIME WE WILL NOT GET CUT OFF FROM THE SOUTH. HIRES
AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS AT LEAST 3 WAVES OF CONVECTION WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE CWA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE HIRES MODELS
SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST HALF DURING THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
SHEAR FOR BRIEF TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND SOME FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWATS...DECENT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THINGS
SHOULD START TO WOUND DOWN SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FAR AS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS CONCERN.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 60S. FOR TODAY PUT HIGHER POPS SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION WILL BE AND LESSER POPS FARTHER NORTH.
ON SATURDAY PUT DEFINITE POPS EVERYWHERE WITH THE CROSSING OF THE
WAVES OF CONVECTION./17/

.SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION DURING
THE COURSE OF SUNDAY MORNING.  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
REMAIN PREDOMINATELY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...NOTED BY
PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES FALLING TO AROUND ONE INCH.

THAT SAID...A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN IMPEDING UPON THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY CAUSING A COLD
FRONT TO PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION...
A SPOKE OR TWO OF ENERGY WILL PIVOT EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA
AS EARLY AS MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

DURING THE TIME...THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO AROUND
80 AND DEW POINTS STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S YIELDING SUFFICENT
LEVELS OF INSTABILITY (2500-3000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE)...VERY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-8 C/KM) AND IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL
TOTALS (29-31C)...AND THE PRESENCE OF 40-45 KNOTS DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...WILL BRING A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  THESE STORMS COULD BE
QUITE ROBUST SUPERCELLS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  AGAIN...THERE`S A VERY SMALL TORNADIC RISK WITH
THIS SETUP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD IT TO THE HWO.

THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES.  BEHIND THE FRONT...NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS
LOOKS TO PROVIDE US WITH A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.  WARM ADVECTION ENSUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH LATE WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES
CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROCHES FROM THE WEST. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...PRIOR TO DAWN IFR TO VFR CEILINGS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF.
ALSO CAN LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
LOW CEILINGS WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY AROUND. EXPECT MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WE MOVE FROM
THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FOR
SATURDAY MORNING./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       77  64  77  64 /  70  64  59  50
MERIDIAN      76  64  77  63 /  73  73  64  51
VICKSBURG     77  65  79  65 /  67  56  53  59
HATTIESBURG   76  65  79  65 /  78  70  65  47
NATCHEZ       77  64  78  66 /  79  56  59  68
GREENVILLE    79  64  78  64 /  37  49  48  46
GREENWOOD     79  64  78  63 /  47  57  50  44



&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/19





000
FXUS64 KJAN 170837
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
336 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS IT CONTINUED TO
SEND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CWA FOR OUR UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN. ON THE SURFACE A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE REGION. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WITH SHOWERS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20. OUR ANOMALOUS PWATS WILL CONTINUE FROM 1.7 TO NEAR
2 INCHES.

FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY AROUND EXPECT
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL LIFT
BY MID MORNING. THE HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION INTERSECTING THE WEAK BOUNDARY AND
20-30 KNOTS OF 850 MB FLOW...WHICH WILL PROMOTE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS...WHICH WILL CUT OFF MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION WITH SOME
DECENT RAINFALL RATES. THERE MAY A BE A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE
SOUTH WITH WEAK LAPSE RATE AND SOME WEAK SHEAR.   AS WE GO INTO THE
NIGHT TIME HOURS HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS WE GO FARTHER INTO THE NIGHT AS
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. SO WITH THAT IN
MIND PUT IN ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ELEMENTS START TO WOUND UP ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS TIME WE WILL NOT GET CUT OFF FROM THE SOUTH. HIRES
AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS AT LEAST 3 WAVES OF CONVECTION WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE CWA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE HIRES MODELS
SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST HALF DURING THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
SHEAR FOR BRIEF TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND SOME FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWATS...DECENT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THINGS
SHOULD START TO WOUND DOWN SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FAR AS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS CONCERN.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 60S. FOR TODAY PUT HIGHER POPS SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION WILL BE AND LESSER POPS FARTHER NORTH.
ON SATURDAY PUT DEFINITE POPS EVERYWHERE WITH THE CROSSING OF THE
WAVES OF CONVECTION./17/

.SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION DURING
THE COURSE OF SUNDAY MORNING.  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
REMAIN PREDOMINATELY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...NOTED BY
PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES FALLING TO AROUND ONE INCH.

THAT SAID...A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN IMPEDING UPON THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY CAUSING A COLD
FRONT TO PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION...
A SPOKE OR TWO OF ENERGY WILL PIVOT EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA
AS EARLY AS MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

DURING THE TIME...THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO AROUND
80 AND DEW POINTS STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S YIELDING SUFFICENT
LEVELS OF INSTABILITY (2500-3000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE)...VERY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-8 C/KM) AND IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL
TOTALS (29-31C)...AND THE PRESENCE OF 40-45 KNOTS DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...WILL BRING A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  THESE STORMS COULD BE
QUITE ROBUST SUPERCELLS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  AGAIN...THERE`S A VERY SMALL TORNADIC RISK WITH
THIS SETUP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD IT TO THE HWO.

THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES.  BEHIND THE FRONT...NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS
LOOKS TO PROVIDE US WITH A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.  WARM ADVECTION ENSUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH LATE WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES
CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROCHES FROM THE WEST. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...PRIOR TO DAWN IFR TO VFR CEILINGS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF.
ALSO CAN LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
LOW CEILINGS WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY AROUND. EXPECT MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WE MOVE FROM
THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FOR
SATURDAY MORNING./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       77  64  77  64 /  70  64  59  50
MERIDIAN      76  64  77  63 /  73  73  64  51
VICKSBURG     77  65  79  65 /  67  56  53  59
HATTIESBURG   76  65  79  65 /  78  70  65  47
NATCHEZ       77  64  78  66 /  79  56  59  68
GREENVILLE    79  64  78  64 /  37  49  48  46
GREENWOOD     79  64  78  63 /  47  57  50  44



&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/19





000
FXUS64 KJAN 170837
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
336 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS IT CONTINUED TO
SEND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CWA FOR OUR UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN. ON THE SURFACE A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS
THE REGION. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WITH SHOWERS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20. OUR ANOMALOUS PWATS WILL CONTINUE FROM 1.7 TO NEAR
2 INCHES.

FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY AROUND EXPECT
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FOR THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL LIFT
BY MID MORNING. THE HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION INTERSECTING THE WEAK BOUNDARY AND
20-30 KNOTS OF 850 MB FLOW...WHICH WILL PROMOTE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS...WHICH WILL CUT OFF MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HEAVIER RAIN
POTENTIAL. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION WITH SOME
DECENT RAINFALL RATES. THERE MAY A BE A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE
SOUTH WITH WEAK LAPSE RATE AND SOME WEAK SHEAR.   AS WE GO INTO THE
NIGHT TIME HOURS HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS WE GO FARTHER INTO THE NIGHT AS
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. SO WITH THAT IN
MIND PUT IN ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ELEMENTS START TO WOUND UP ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS TIME WE WILL NOT GET CUT OFF FROM THE SOUTH. HIRES
AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS AT LEAST 3 WAVES OF CONVECTION WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE CWA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE HIRES MODELS
SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST HALF DURING THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
SHEAR FOR BRIEF TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND SOME FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWATS...DECENT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THINGS
SHOULD START TO WOUND DOWN SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FAR AS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS CONCERN.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 60S. FOR TODAY PUT HIGHER POPS SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION WILL BE AND LESSER POPS FARTHER NORTH.
ON SATURDAY PUT DEFINITE POPS EVERYWHERE WITH THE CROSSING OF THE
WAVES OF CONVECTION./17/

.SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION DURING
THE COURSE OF SUNDAY MORNING.  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD
REMAIN PREDOMINATELY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...NOTED BY
PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES FALLING TO AROUND ONE INCH.

THAT SAID...A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN IMPEDING UPON THE REGION
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY CAUSING A COLD
FRONT TO PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION...
A SPOKE OR TWO OF ENERGY WILL PIVOT EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA
AS EARLY AS MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

DURING THE TIME...THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO AROUND
80 AND DEW POINTS STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S YIELDING SUFFICENT
LEVELS OF INSTABILITY (2500-3000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE)...VERY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-8 C/KM) AND IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL
TOTALS (29-31C)...AND THE PRESENCE OF 40-45 KNOTS DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...WILL BRING A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  THESE STORMS COULD BE
QUITE ROBUST SUPERCELLS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  AGAIN...THERE`S A VERY SMALL TORNADIC RISK WITH
THIS SETUP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD IT TO THE HWO.

THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES.  BEHIND THE FRONT...NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS
LOOKS TO PROVIDE US WITH A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.  WARM ADVECTION ENSUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH LATE WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES
CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROCHES FROM THE WEST. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...PRIOR TO DAWN IFR TO VFR CEILINGS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF.
ALSO CAN LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
LOW CEILINGS WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY AROUND. EXPECT MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WE MOVE FROM
THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FOR
SATURDAY MORNING./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       77  64  77  64 /  70  64  59  50
MERIDIAN      76  64  77  63 /  73  73  64  51
VICKSBURG     77  65  79  65 /  67  56  53  59
HATTIESBURG   76  65  79  65 /  78  70  65  47
NATCHEZ       77  64  78  66 /  79  56  59  68
GREENVILLE    79  64  78  64 /  37  49  48  46
GREENWOOD     79  64  78  63 /  47  57  50  44



&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/19




000
FXUS64 KJAN 170315
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1015 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO REDUCE OVERNIGHT POPS AND THUNDER
POTENTIAL. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ADDITONAL CONVECTIVE
RAINFALL DEVELOPING OVER WRN/SRN LA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE
AIRMASS IS SOMEWHAT STABILIZED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. ALL ELSE IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...COUPLED UPPER LEVEL
JET CURRENTLY ALLOWING THE DEVEOLPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT
STORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AND A SEVERE
STORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE. BOTH HAZARDS MAY BE ENHANCED BY WHAT APPEARS
TO BE AN MCV DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND A BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST LOUISIANA TO AROUND OXFORD.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE JETS
AND MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST ACROSS TEXAS. STORMS MAY
SURVIVE AND MOVE INTO OUR AREA OR MCVS MAY SURVIVE AND CAUSE
REFORMATION OF STORMS IN THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

MODELS PROG A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL AGAIN LEAD TO SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL PRIMARILY
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. /SW/

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER A ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY RECOVER AND SETUP A TOTALLY DIFFERENT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR SUNDAY. AS DEEP MOISTURE EXITS EAST BY
EARLY SUNDAY...COLDER TEMPS ALOFT (-15C) WILL SPREAD EAST. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH WARMING LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT A VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL TOTALS OF 29-30C WILL EXIST ALONG WITH H7-H5
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. THIS WILL SUPPORT SBCAPE VALUES OF
2500-3000 J/KG. OVERALL...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE A BIT DRY
(PW`S 1.2 INCH) WITH A WEAK CAP IN PLACE. THE OVERALL FLOW ALOFT WILL
NOT BE OVERLY FAST BUT CYCLONIC AND CONTAINING A FEW SPOKES OF ENERGY
AND LIFT. GUIDANCE FROM THE EURO/GFS/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN SOLID
AGREEMENT ON THIS SETUP AND EACH INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH AN EXTENDED WINDOW FROM AT LEAST MIDDAY INTO LATE EVENING.
DUE TO THE CAP AND GENERAL DRYNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR MORE ISO/SCT TYPE STORMS AND OF SUPERCELL MODE. THE VOLATILE
SETUP OF THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS IN EVOLUTION TO NOT GET TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...MULTIPLE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST GOLF BALL
SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES IS NON-
ZERO...BUT APPEARS TO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE OUTLOOK. DUE
TO THIS...WILL INTRODUCE AN OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS TO RECEIVED SVR STORMS. AN UPDATE TO THE
OUTLOOK MAY BE WARRANTED IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER HAIL. /CME/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES COULD CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WORK WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES AT THE SURFACE. ALOFT... WHILE
OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REGION COULD CAUSE SOME
RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS FORECAST AREA. /19/SW/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 170315
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1015 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO REDUCE OVERNIGHT POPS AND THUNDER
POTENTIAL. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ADDITONAL CONVECTIVE
RAINFALL DEVELOPING OVER WRN/SRN LA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE
AIRMASS IS SOMEWHAT STABILIZED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. ALL ELSE IS
GENERALLY ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...COUPLED UPPER LEVEL
JET CURRENTLY ALLOWING THE DEVEOLPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT
STORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AND A SEVERE
STORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE. BOTH HAZARDS MAY BE ENHANCED BY WHAT APPEARS
TO BE AN MCV DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND A BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST LOUISIANA TO AROUND OXFORD.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE JETS
AND MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST ACROSS TEXAS. STORMS MAY
SURVIVE AND MOVE INTO OUR AREA OR MCVS MAY SURVIVE AND CAUSE
REFORMATION OF STORMS IN THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

MODELS PROG A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL AGAIN LEAD TO SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL PRIMARILY
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. /SW/

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER A ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY RECOVER AND SETUP A TOTALLY DIFFERENT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR SUNDAY. AS DEEP MOISTURE EXITS EAST BY
EARLY SUNDAY...COLDER TEMPS ALOFT (-15C) WILL SPREAD EAST. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH WARMING LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT A VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL TOTALS OF 29-30C WILL EXIST ALONG WITH H7-H5
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. THIS WILL SUPPORT SBCAPE VALUES OF
2500-3000 J/KG. OVERALL...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE A BIT DRY
(PW`S 1.2 INCH) WITH A WEAK CAP IN PLACE. THE OVERALL FLOW ALOFT WILL
NOT BE OVERLY FAST BUT CYCLONIC AND CONTAINING A FEW SPOKES OF ENERGY
AND LIFT. GUIDANCE FROM THE EURO/GFS/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN SOLID
AGREEMENT ON THIS SETUP AND EACH INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH AN EXTENDED WINDOW FROM AT LEAST MIDDAY INTO LATE EVENING.
DUE TO THE CAP AND GENERAL DRYNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR MORE ISO/SCT TYPE STORMS AND OF SUPERCELL MODE. THE VOLATILE
SETUP OF THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS IN EVOLUTION TO NOT GET TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...MULTIPLE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST GOLF BALL
SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES IS NON-
ZERO...BUT APPEARS TO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE OUTLOOK. DUE
TO THIS...WILL INTRODUCE AN OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS TO RECEIVED SVR STORMS. AN UPDATE TO THE
OUTLOOK MAY BE WARRANTED IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER HAIL. /CME/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES COULD CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WORK WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES AT THE SURFACE. ALOFT... WHILE
OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REGION COULD CAUSE SOME
RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS FORECAST AREA. /19/SW/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 162010
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
310 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...COUPLED UPPER LEVEL
JET CURRENTLY ALLOWING THE DEVEOLPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT
STORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AND A SEVERE
STORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE. BOTH HAZARDS MAY BE ENHANCED BY WHAT APPEARS
TO BE AN MCV DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND A BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST LOUISIANA TO AROUND OXFORD.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE JETS
AND MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST ACROSS TEXAS. STORMS MAY
SURVIVE AND MOVE INTO OUR AREA OR MCVS MAY SURVIVE AND CAUSE
REFORMATION OF STORMS IN THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

MODELS PROG A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL AGAIN LEAD TO SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL PRIMARILY
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. /SW/

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER A ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY RECOVER AND SETUP A TOTALLY DIFFERENT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR SUNDAY. AS DEEP MOISTURE EXITS EAST BY
EARLY SUNDAY...COLDER TEMPS ALOFT (-15C) WILL SPREAD EAST. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH WARMING LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT A VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL TOTALS OF 29-30C WILL EXIST ALONG WITH H7-H5
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. THIS WILL SUPPORT SBCAPE VALUES OF
2500-3000 J/KG. OVERALL...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE A BIT DRY
(PW`S 1.2 INCH) WITH A WEAK CAP IN PLACE. THE OVERALL FLOW ALOFT WILL
NOT BE OVERLY FAST BUT CYCLONIC AND CONTAINING A FEW SPOKES OF ENERGY
AND LIFT. GUIDANCE FROM THE EURO/GFS/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN SOLID
AGREEMENT ON THIS SETUP AND EACH INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH AN EXTENDED WINDOW FROM AT LEAST MIDDAY INTO LATE EVENING.
DUE TO THE CAP AND GENERAL DRYNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR MORE ISO/SCT TYPE STORMS AND OF SUPERCELL MODE. THE VOLATILE
SETUP OF THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS IN EVOLUTION TO NOT GET TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...MULTIPLE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST GOLF BALL
SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES IS NON-
ZERO...BUT APPEARS TO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE OUTLOOK. DUE
TO THIS...WILL INTRODUCE AN OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS TO RECEIVED SVR STORMS. AN UPDATE TO THE
OUTLOOK MAY BE WARRANTED IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER HAIL. /CME/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES COULD CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WORK WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES AT THE SURFACE. ALOFT... WHILE
OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REGION COULD CAUSE SOME
RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS FORECAST AREA. /19/SW/

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING TSRA THIS PM WILL BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO
IFR/MVFR. PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 17/00Z WITH
IFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND HBG AFTER 17/06Z. VSBYS IN FOG ELSEWHERE WILL
NOT BE AS BIG OF A PROBLEM WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR EXPECTED./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       64  77  64  77 /  64  63  47  82
MERIDIAN      64  78  63  76 /  73  64  41  79
VICKSBURG     65  78  65  77 /  56  60  56  81
HATTIESBURG   65  80  65  78 /  70  65  40  75
NATCHEZ       64  79  66  76 /  56  61  64  82
GREENVILLE    64  77  64  75 /  49  53  44  83
GREENWOOD     64  78  63  76 /  57  56  39  81

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 162010
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
310 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...COUPLED UPPER LEVEL
JET CURRENTLY ALLOWING THE DEVEOLPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT
STORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AND A SEVERE
STORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE. BOTH HAZARDS MAY BE ENHANCED BY WHAT APPEARS
TO BE AN MCV DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND A BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST LOUISIANA TO AROUND OXFORD.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE JETS
AND MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST ACROSS TEXAS. STORMS MAY
SURVIVE AND MOVE INTO OUR AREA OR MCVS MAY SURVIVE AND CAUSE
REFORMATION OF STORMS IN THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

MODELS PROG A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL AGAIN LEAD TO SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL PRIMARILY
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. /SW/

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER A ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY RECOVER AND SETUP A TOTALLY DIFFERENT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR SUNDAY. AS DEEP MOISTURE EXITS EAST BY
EARLY SUNDAY...COLDER TEMPS ALOFT (-15C) WILL SPREAD EAST. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH WARMING LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT A VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL TOTALS OF 29-30C WILL EXIST ALONG WITH H7-H5
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. THIS WILL SUPPORT SBCAPE VALUES OF
2500-3000 J/KG. OVERALL...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE A BIT DRY
(PW`S 1.2 INCH) WITH A WEAK CAP IN PLACE. THE OVERALL FLOW ALOFT WILL
NOT BE OVERLY FAST BUT CYCLONIC AND CONTAINING A FEW SPOKES OF ENERGY
AND LIFT. GUIDANCE FROM THE EURO/GFS/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN SOLID
AGREEMENT ON THIS SETUP AND EACH INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH AN EXTENDED WINDOW FROM AT LEAST MIDDAY INTO LATE EVENING.
DUE TO THE CAP AND GENERAL DRYNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR MORE ISO/SCT TYPE STORMS AND OF SUPERCELL MODE. THE VOLATILE
SETUP OF THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS IN EVOLUTION TO NOT GET TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...MULTIPLE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST GOLF BALL
SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES IS NON-
ZERO...BUT APPEARS TO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE OUTLOOK. DUE
TO THIS...WILL INTRODUCE AN OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS TO RECEIVED SVR STORMS. AN UPDATE TO THE
OUTLOOK MAY BE WARRANTED IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER HAIL. /CME/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES COULD CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WORK WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES AT THE SURFACE. ALOFT... WHILE
OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REGION COULD CAUSE SOME
RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS FORECAST AREA. /19/SW/

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING TSRA THIS PM WILL BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO
IFR/MVFR. PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 17/00Z WITH
IFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND HBG AFTER 17/06Z. VSBYS IN FOG ELSEWHERE WILL
NOT BE AS BIG OF A PROBLEM WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR EXPECTED./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       64  77  64  77 /  64  63  47  82
MERIDIAN      64  78  63  76 /  73  64  41  79
VICKSBURG     65  78  65  77 /  56  60  56  81
HATTIESBURG   65  80  65  78 /  70  65  40  75
NATCHEZ       64  79  66  76 /  56  61  64  82
GREENVILLE    64  77  64  75 /  49  53  44  83
GREENWOOD     64  78  63  76 /  57  56  39  81

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 162010
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
310 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...COUPLED UPPER LEVEL
JET CURRENTLY ALLOWING THE DEVEOLPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT
STORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AND A SEVERE
STORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE. BOTH HAZARDS MAY BE ENHANCED BY WHAT APPEARS
TO BE AN MCV DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND A BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST LOUISIANA TO AROUND OXFORD.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE JETS
AND MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THE ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST ACROSS TEXAS. STORMS MAY
SURVIVE AND MOVE INTO OUR AREA OR MCVS MAY SURVIVE AND CAUSE
REFORMATION OF STORMS IN THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

MODELS PROG A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL AGAIN LEAD TO SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL PRIMARILY
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. /SW/

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER A ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY RECOVER AND SETUP A TOTALLY DIFFERENT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR SUNDAY. AS DEEP MOISTURE EXITS EAST BY
EARLY SUNDAY...COLDER TEMPS ALOFT (-15C) WILL SPREAD EAST. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH WARMING LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT A VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL TOTALS OF 29-30C WILL EXIST ALONG WITH H7-H5
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. THIS WILL SUPPORT SBCAPE VALUES OF
2500-3000 J/KG. OVERALL...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE A BIT DRY
(PW`S 1.2 INCH) WITH A WEAK CAP IN PLACE. THE OVERALL FLOW ALOFT WILL
NOT BE OVERLY FAST BUT CYCLONIC AND CONTAINING A FEW SPOKES OF ENERGY
AND LIFT. GUIDANCE FROM THE EURO/GFS/CANADIAN ARE ALL IN SOLID
AGREEMENT ON THIS SETUP AND EACH INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH AN EXTENDED WINDOW FROM AT LEAST MIDDAY INTO LATE EVENING.
DUE TO THE CAP AND GENERAL DRYNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR MORE ISO/SCT TYPE STORMS AND OF SUPERCELL MODE. THE VOLATILE
SETUP OF THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS IN EVOLUTION TO NOT GET TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...MULTIPLE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST GOLF BALL
SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES IS NON-
ZERO...BUT APPEARS TO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE OUTLOOK. DUE
TO THIS...WILL INTRODUCE AN OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS TO RECEIVED SVR STORMS. AN UPDATE TO THE
OUTLOOK MAY BE WARRANTED IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGER HAIL. /CME/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES COULD CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WORK WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES AT THE SURFACE. ALOFT... WHILE
OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REGION COULD CAUSE SOME
RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS FORECAST AREA. /19/SW/

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING TSRA THIS PM WILL BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO
IFR/MVFR. PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 17/00Z WITH
IFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND HBG AFTER 17/06Z. VSBYS IN FOG ELSEWHERE WILL
NOT BE AS BIG OF A PROBLEM WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR EXPECTED./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       64  77  64  77 /  64  63  47  82
MERIDIAN      64  78  63  76 /  73  64  41  79
VICKSBURG     65  78  65  77 /  56  60  56  81
HATTIESBURG   65  80  65  78 /  70  65  40  75
NATCHEZ       64  79  66  76 /  56  61  64  82
GREENVILLE    64  77  64  75 /  49  53  44  83
GREENWOOD     64  78  63  76 /  57  56  39  81

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 161523
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1023 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM AROUND GRENADA SOUTHWEST TO AROUND ALEXANDRIA
LOUISIANA. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70
DEGREES WAS IN PLACE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED TWO 300 MB JET STREAKS ACROSS THE
REGION...ONE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE OTHER ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.

MODELS SHOW THE JET STREAKS BECOMING COUPLED WITH INCREASED
DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED UPWARD MOTION WHICH WILL ACT ON A MOIST (PW > 1.5 INCHES)
AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ALL SHORT
TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SPC SSEO WHICH SHOWS HIGH PROBABILITY
FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS ACROSS THE AREA. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

STORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOW CELL MOVEMENT. WE HAVE ADDED A
LIMITED RISK IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR HAIL AROUND
QUARTER SIZE AND WINDS TO 60 MPH IN SOME STORMS FOR ALL EXCEPT THE
NORTHWEST PART OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE GRIDS WILL BE TO REDUCE THE POPS THROUGH THE
MORNING AS MOST STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON. /SW/

&&

AVIATION...FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RISE TO MVFR AND BRIEFLY VFR BY
16/18Z...BUT INCREASING TSRA THEREAFTER WILL BRING CONDITIONS DOWN
TO IFR/MVFR. PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 17/00Z
WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND HBG AFTER 17/06Z. VSBYS IN FOG ELSEWHERE
WILL NOT BE AS BIG OF A PROBLEM WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR EXPECTED./26/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE ROCKIES AS IT CONTINUED TO SEND A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CWA FOR OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN. ON THE SURFACE A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. WITH LIGHT FLOW
AND WEAK BOUNDARY AROUND MAY GET SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WILL LIFT BY 14Z.  HIRES AND SHORT RANGE
MODELS SHOWS THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL
ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIRES MODELS SHOWS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
MEANDER AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ANOMALOUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WILL BE IN THE 1.8 TO 1.9 INCH
RANGE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEPS THE HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS IS WHERE WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK IN THE FAR
SOUTH FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG
STORMS IN THE SOUTH WITH SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES WITH MIDLEVEL TEMPS
AROUND -12C AND 0-6 KM 30-35 KNOT SHEAR. LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL
BE WEAK. SO WILL HOLD OFF IN MENTIONING ANY LIMITED RISK AT THIS
TIME IN THE SOUTH. AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT THE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN
SOME AS IT SPREADS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. SO EXPECTING SHOWERS
WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THINGS ARE A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
PIN POINT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS DO
NOT REALLY HAVE ANY FOCUSED AREA AS MOSTLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. MESOSCALE EFFECTS KEEPS THINGS DIFFICULT FOR
THE MODELS TO FOCUS ON WITH LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
WPC HAS KEPT ITS SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH
FOR THE INTERACTION OF THE WAVE WITH THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S. WENT GENERALLY WITH BLENDED MODEL POPS./17/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...WET WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  NOT THAT AGREEMENT HAS MEANT
MUCH IN THIS CURRENT PATTERN...BUT MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NATION`S MID-
SECTION...SENDING A STOUT SHORTWAVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.  THIS...COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING IN THIS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOIST AIRMASS...WILL LIKELY
SPARK SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE CWA.  A COMPLEX OF STORMS...AS
HINTED AT BY SOME MODELS...CAN`T BE RULED OUT WITH THIS SCENARIO
EITHER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED CLOSED BEGINS TO SWING EAST...NOW AS
AN OPEN TROUGH. THIS IS PROGGED TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO AND
THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO LEAD TO DRY 48 HOUR PERIOD FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

RAIN CHANCES COULD CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST COME THE MIDDLE OF
THE WORK WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES AT THE SURFACE.  ALOFT...
WHILE OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REGION COULD CAUSE SOME
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS FORECAST AREA. /19/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       77  64  77  64 /  70  64  59  50
MERIDIAN      76  64  77  63 /  73  73  64  51
VICKSBURG     77  65  79  65 /  67  56  53  59
HATTIESBURG   76  65  79  65 /  78  70  65  47
NATCHEZ       77  64  78  66 /  79  56  59  68
GREENVILLE    79  64  78  64 /  37  49  48  46
GREENWOOD     79  64  78  63 /  47  57  50  44

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 161523
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1023 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM AROUND GRENADA SOUTHWEST TO AROUND ALEXANDRIA
LOUISIANA. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70
DEGREES WAS IN PLACE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED TWO 300 MB JET STREAKS ACROSS THE
REGION...ONE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE OTHER ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.

MODELS SHOW THE JET STREAKS BECOMING COUPLED WITH INCREASED
DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED UPWARD MOTION WHICH WILL ACT ON A MOIST (PW > 1.5 INCHES)
AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ALL SHORT
TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SPC SSEO WHICH SHOWS HIGH PROBABILITY
FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS ACROSS THE AREA. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

STORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOW CELL MOVEMENT. WE HAVE ADDED A
LIMITED RISK IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR HAIL AROUND
QUARTER SIZE AND WINDS TO 60 MPH IN SOME STORMS FOR ALL EXCEPT THE
NORTHWEST PART OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE GRIDS WILL BE TO REDUCE THE POPS THROUGH THE
MORNING AS MOST STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON. /SW/

&&

AVIATION...FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RISE TO MVFR AND BRIEFLY VFR BY
16/18Z...BUT INCREASING TSRA THEREAFTER WILL BRING CONDITIONS DOWN
TO IFR/MVFR. PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 17/00Z
WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND HBG AFTER 17/06Z. VSBYS IN FOG ELSEWHERE
WILL NOT BE AS BIG OF A PROBLEM WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR EXPECTED./26/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE ROCKIES AS IT CONTINUED TO SEND A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CWA FOR OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN. ON THE SURFACE A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. WITH LIGHT FLOW
AND WEAK BOUNDARY AROUND MAY GET SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WILL LIFT BY 14Z.  HIRES AND SHORT RANGE
MODELS SHOWS THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL
ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIRES MODELS SHOWS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
MEANDER AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ANOMALOUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WILL BE IN THE 1.8 TO 1.9 INCH
RANGE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEPS THE HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS IS WHERE WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK IN THE FAR
SOUTH FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG
STORMS IN THE SOUTH WITH SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES WITH MIDLEVEL TEMPS
AROUND -12C AND 0-6 KM 30-35 KNOT SHEAR. LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL
BE WEAK. SO WILL HOLD OFF IN MENTIONING ANY LIMITED RISK AT THIS
TIME IN THE SOUTH. AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT THE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN
SOME AS IT SPREADS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. SO EXPECTING SHOWERS
WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THINGS ARE A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
PIN POINT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS DO
NOT REALLY HAVE ANY FOCUSED AREA AS MOSTLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. MESOSCALE EFFECTS KEEPS THINGS DIFFICULT FOR
THE MODELS TO FOCUS ON WITH LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
WPC HAS KEPT ITS SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH
FOR THE INTERACTION OF THE WAVE WITH THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S. WENT GENERALLY WITH BLENDED MODEL POPS./17/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...WET WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  NOT THAT AGREEMENT HAS MEANT
MUCH IN THIS CURRENT PATTERN...BUT MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NATION`S MID-
SECTION...SENDING A STOUT SHORTWAVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.  THIS...COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING IN THIS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOIST AIRMASS...WILL LIKELY
SPARK SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE CWA.  A COMPLEX OF STORMS...AS
HINTED AT BY SOME MODELS...CAN`T BE RULED OUT WITH THIS SCENARIO
EITHER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED CLOSED BEGINS TO SWING EAST...NOW AS
AN OPEN TROUGH. THIS IS PROGGED TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO AND
THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO LEAD TO DRY 48 HOUR PERIOD FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

RAIN CHANCES COULD CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST COME THE MIDDLE OF
THE WORK WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES AT THE SURFACE.  ALOFT...
WHILE OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REGION COULD CAUSE SOME
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS FORECAST AREA. /19/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       77  64  77  64 /  70  64  59  50
MERIDIAN      76  64  77  63 /  73  73  64  51
VICKSBURG     77  65  79  65 /  67  56  53  59
HATTIESBURG   76  65  79  65 /  78  70  65  47
NATCHEZ       77  64  78  66 /  79  56  59  68
GREENVILLE    79  64  78  64 /  37  49  48  46
GREENWOOD     79  64  78  63 /  47  57  50  44

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 161523
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1023 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM AROUND GRENADA SOUTHWEST TO AROUND ALEXANDRIA
LOUISIANA. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70
DEGREES WAS IN PLACE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED TWO 300 MB JET STREAKS ACROSS THE
REGION...ONE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE OTHER ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.

MODELS SHOW THE JET STREAKS BECOMING COUPLED WITH INCREASED
DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED UPWARD MOTION WHICH WILL ACT ON A MOIST (PW > 1.5 INCHES)
AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ALL SHORT
TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SPC SSEO WHICH SHOWS HIGH PROBABILITY
FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS ACROSS THE AREA. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

STORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOW CELL MOVEMENT. WE HAVE ADDED A
LIMITED RISK IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR HAIL AROUND
QUARTER SIZE AND WINDS TO 60 MPH IN SOME STORMS FOR ALL EXCEPT THE
NORTHWEST PART OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE GRIDS WILL BE TO REDUCE THE POPS THROUGH THE
MORNING AS MOST STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON. /SW/

&&

AVIATION...FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RISE TO MVFR AND BRIEFLY VFR BY
16/18Z...BUT INCREASING TSRA THEREAFTER WILL BRING CONDITIONS DOWN
TO IFR/MVFR. PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 17/00Z
WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND HBG AFTER 17/06Z. VSBYS IN FOG ELSEWHERE
WILL NOT BE AS BIG OF A PROBLEM WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR EXPECTED./26/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE ROCKIES AS IT CONTINUED TO SEND A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CWA FOR OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN. ON THE SURFACE A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. WITH LIGHT FLOW
AND WEAK BOUNDARY AROUND MAY GET SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WILL LIFT BY 14Z.  HIRES AND SHORT RANGE
MODELS SHOWS THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL
ADVANCE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIRES MODELS SHOWS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
MEANDER AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ANOMALOUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WILL BE IN THE 1.8 TO 1.9 INCH
RANGE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEPS THE HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS IS WHERE WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK IN THE FAR
SOUTH FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG
STORMS IN THE SOUTH WITH SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES WITH MIDLEVEL TEMPS
AROUND -12C AND 0-6 KM 30-35 KNOT SHEAR. LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL
BE WEAK. SO WILL HOLD OFF IN MENTIONING ANY LIMITED RISK AT THIS
TIME IN THE SOUTH. AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT THE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN
SOME AS IT SPREADS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. SO EXPECTING SHOWERS
WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THINGS ARE A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
PIN POINT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS DO
NOT REALLY HAVE ANY FOCUSED AREA AS MOSTLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. MESOSCALE EFFECTS KEEPS THINGS DIFFICULT FOR
THE MODELS TO FOCUS ON WITH LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
WPC HAS KEPT ITS SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH
FOR THE INTERACTION OF THE WAVE WITH THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S. WENT GENERALLY WITH BLENDED MODEL POPS./17/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...WET WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  NOT THAT AGREEMENT HAS MEANT
MUCH IN THIS CURRENT PATTERN...BUT MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NATION`S MID-
SECTION...SENDING A STOUT SHORTWAVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.  THIS...COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING IN THIS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOIST AIRMASS...WILL LIKELY
SPARK SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE CWA.  A COMPLEX OF STORMS...AS
HINTED AT BY SOME MODELS...CAN`T BE RULED OUT WITH THIS SCENARIO
EITHER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED CLOSED BEGINS TO SWING EAST...NOW AS
AN OPEN TROUGH. THIS IS PROGGED TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO AND
THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO LEAD TO DRY 48 HOUR PERIOD FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

RAIN CHANCES COULD CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST COME THE MIDDLE OF
THE WORK WEEK AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES AT THE SURFACE.  ALOFT...
WHILE OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE REGION COULD CAUSE SOME
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS FORECAST AREA. /19/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       77  64  77  64 /  70  64  59  50
MERIDIAN      76  64  77  63 /  73  73  64  51
VICKSBURG     77  65  79  65 /  67  56  53  59
HATTIESBURG   76  65  79  65 /  78  70  65  47
NATCHEZ       77  64  78  66 /  79  56  59  68
GREENVILLE    79  64  78  64 /  37  49  48  46
GREENWOOD     79  64  78  63 /  47  57  50  44

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




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