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000
FXUS64 KJAN 251606 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1005 AM SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HIRES CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. AREA
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWS THAT WE WILL EASILY REACH THE 60S FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. SO WITH THAT IN MIND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST./17/


329 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS ON A QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON/
TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER IOWA THIS EARLY MORNING...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WHICH...
ACCOMPANIED BY DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE AREA.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONE OR TWO NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THAT AREA BEGINNING AROUND NOON AND MOVING OUT BY 03Z. LAPSE
RATES WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ONLY INCREASING LOW/MID CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER ITEM OF NOTE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME AREAS MAY MIX UP TO
NEARLY 800 MB DURING PEAK HEATING. IF THIS PANS OUT...WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KTS COULD EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE.

CONDITIONS LOOK DRY FOR MONDAY WITH ANY LINGERING CLOUDS CLEARING
THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND
SURFACE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. /DL/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TUESDAY MORNING THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OF RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL
BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. THIS
PATTERN WILL SWIFTLY FLATTEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
OVER OUR REGION. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA TUESDAY
WILL SHIFT EAST OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN EAST OF OUR CWA
WEDNESDAY. TOGETHER THESE FEATURES WILL LEND TO DRY WEATHER AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND GOING INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR
NORTHERN MOST ZONES...THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE LONG TERM WITH MOST SITES TOPPING OUT 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVER OUR
DELTA REGION BY NOON THEN EXIT OUR SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING. THE
ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF OVER OUR CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE
GFS AND CANADIAN REMAIN DRY OVER OUR AREA AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED
MENTION OF RAIN THIS PACKAGE. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL KNOCK MORNING LOWS FRIDAY BACK INTO THE 30S OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND LIMIT HIGHS FRIDAY TO THE 50S AGAIN.
LONG RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND`S WEATHER
AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A >1028MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF
OUR CWA LIMITING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WHILE OUR WINDS ALOFT BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING BACK INTO OUR CWA. THE GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN BRINGING RAIN BACK INTO OUR AREA
SATURDAY. NEITHER MODEL BRING THE CLOSED LOW EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...INSTEAD A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SUPPORT
ANOTHER FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WETTER
GFS SOLUTION THROUGH SUNDAY. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURE PROFILES POINT TO
A COLD RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...A DRY FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THIS AREA. GUSTS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE
LIKELY FOR GLH...GWO AND GTR. THEY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TVR.
SOME GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE OTHER SITES...BUT SHOULD BE
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF CLOUD DECK BKN TO
OVC...BUT HEIGHTS WILL BE REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT. OVERALL...EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  41  53  38 /   5   9   0   0
MERIDIAN      64  42  52  34 /   6  13   0   0
VICKSBURG     65  40  56  39 /   2   6   0   0
HATTIESBURG   68  42  57  37 /   0   2   0   0
NATCHEZ       65  40  55  40 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    60  38  53  39 /  12  12   0   0
GREENWOOD     60  39  52  37 /  17  19   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/22









000
FXUS64 KJAN 251606 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1005 AM SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HIRES CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. AREA
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWS THAT WE WILL EASILY REACH THE 60S FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. SO WITH THAT IN MIND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST./17/


329 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS ON A QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON/
TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER IOWA THIS EARLY MORNING...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WHICH...
ACCOMPANIED BY DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE AREA.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONE OR TWO NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THAT AREA BEGINNING AROUND NOON AND MOVING OUT BY 03Z. LAPSE
RATES WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ONLY INCREASING LOW/MID CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER ITEM OF NOTE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME AREAS MAY MIX UP TO
NEARLY 800 MB DURING PEAK HEATING. IF THIS PANS OUT...WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KTS COULD EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE.

CONDITIONS LOOK DRY FOR MONDAY WITH ANY LINGERING CLOUDS CLEARING
THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND
SURFACE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. /DL/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TUESDAY MORNING THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OF RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL
BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. THIS
PATTERN WILL SWIFTLY FLATTEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
OVER OUR REGION. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA TUESDAY
WILL SHIFT EAST OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN EAST OF OUR CWA
WEDNESDAY. TOGETHER THESE FEATURES WILL LEND TO DRY WEATHER AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND GOING INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR
NORTHERN MOST ZONES...THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE LONG TERM WITH MOST SITES TOPPING OUT 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVER OUR
DELTA REGION BY NOON THEN EXIT OUR SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING. THE
ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF OVER OUR CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE
GFS AND CANADIAN REMAIN DRY OVER OUR AREA AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED
MENTION OF RAIN THIS PACKAGE. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL KNOCK MORNING LOWS FRIDAY BACK INTO THE 30S OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND LIMIT HIGHS FRIDAY TO THE 50S AGAIN.
LONG RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND`S WEATHER
AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A >1028MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF
OUR CWA LIMITING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WHILE OUR WINDS ALOFT BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING BACK INTO OUR CWA. THE GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN BRINGING RAIN BACK INTO OUR AREA
SATURDAY. NEITHER MODEL BRING THE CLOSED LOW EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...INSTEAD A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SUPPORT
ANOTHER FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WETTER
GFS SOLUTION THROUGH SUNDAY. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURE PROFILES POINT TO
A COLD RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...A DRY FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THIS AREA. GUSTS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE
LIKELY FOR GLH...GWO AND GTR. THEY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TVR.
SOME GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE OTHER SITES...BUT SHOULD BE
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF CLOUD DECK BKN TO
OVC...BUT HEIGHTS WILL BE REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT. OVERALL...EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  41  53  38 /   5   9   0   0
MERIDIAN      64  42  52  34 /   6  13   0   0
VICKSBURG     65  40  56  39 /   2   6   0   0
HATTIESBURG   68  42  57  37 /   0   2   0   0
NATCHEZ       65  40  55  40 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    60  38  53  39 /  12  12   0   0
GREENWOOD     60  39  52  37 /  17  19   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/22








000
FXUS64 KJAN 250929
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
329 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS ON A QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON/
TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER IOWA THIS EARLY MORNING...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WHICH...
ACCOMPANIED BY DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE AREA.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONE OR TWO NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THAT AREA BEGINNING AROUND NOON AND MOVING OUT BY 03Z. LAPSE
RATES WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ONLY INCREASING LOW/MID CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER ITEM OF NOTE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME AREAS MAY MIX UP TO
NEARLY 800 MB DURING PEAK HEATING. IF THIS PANS OUT...WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KTS COULD EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE.

CONDITIONS LOOK DRY FOR MONDAY WITH ANY LINGERING CLOUDS CLEARING
THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND
SURFACE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. /DL/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TUESDAY MORNING THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OF RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL
BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. THIS
PATTERN WILL SWIFTLY FLATTEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
OVER OUR REGION. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA TUESDAY
WILL SHIFT EAST OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN EAST OF OUR CWA
WEDNESDAY. TOGETHER THESE FEATURES WILL LEND TO DRY WEATHER AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND GOING INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR
NORTHERN MOST ZONES...THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE LONG TERM WITH MOST SITES TOPPING OUT 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVER OUR
DELTA REGION BY NOON THEN EXIT OUR SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING. THE
ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF OVER OUR CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE
GFS AND CANADIAN REMAIN DRY OVER OUR AREA AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED
MENTION OF RAIN THIS PACKAGE. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL KNOCK MORNING LOWS FRIDAY BACK INTO THE 30S OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND LIMIT HIGHS FRIDAY TO THE 50S AGAIN.
LONG RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND`S WEATHER
AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A >1028MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF
OUR CWA LIMITING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WHILE OUR WINDS ALOFT BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING BACK INTO OUR CWA. THE GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN BRINGING RAIN BACK INTO OUR AREA
SATURDAY. NEITHER MODEL BRING THE CLOSED LOW EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...INSTEAD A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SUPPORT
ANOTHER FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WETTER
GFS SOLUTION THROUGH SUNDAY. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURE PROFILES POINT TO
A COLD RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING
A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT FROM W/SW TO NW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT NRN/ERN TERMINALS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF CIG/VISBY
REDUCTIONS. OTHERWISE THOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...THE CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30
KTS POSSIBLE. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  41  53  38 /   5   9   0   0
MERIDIAN      64  42  52  34 /   6  13   0   0
VICKSBURG     65  40  56  39 /   2   6   0   0
HATTIESBURG   68  42  57  37 /   0   2   0   0
NATCHEZ       65  40  55  40 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    60  38  53  39 /  12  12   0   0
GREENWOOD     60  39  52  37 /  17  19   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/22





000
FXUS64 KJAN 250929
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
329 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS ON A QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON/
TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER IOWA THIS EARLY MORNING...AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THOUGH MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WHICH...
ACCOMPANIED BY DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE AREA.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONE OR TWO NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THAT AREA BEGINNING AROUND NOON AND MOVING OUT BY 03Z. LAPSE
RATES WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ONLY INCREASING LOW/MID CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER ITEM OF NOTE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME AREAS MAY MIX UP TO
NEARLY 800 MB DURING PEAK HEATING. IF THIS PANS OUT...WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KTS COULD EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT WILL BE NOTICEABLE.

CONDITIONS LOOK DRY FOR MONDAY WITH ANY LINGERING CLOUDS CLEARING
THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND
SURFACE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN. /DL/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...TUESDAY MORNING THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OF RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL
BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. THIS
PATTERN WILL SWIFTLY FLATTEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
OVER OUR REGION. A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA TUESDAY
WILL SHIFT EAST OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN EAST OF OUR CWA
WEDNESDAY. TOGETHER THESE FEATURES WILL LEND TO DRY WEATHER AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND GOING INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR
NORTHERN MOST ZONES...THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE LONG TERM WITH MOST SITES TOPPING OUT 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP OVER OUR
DELTA REGION BY NOON THEN EXIT OUR SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING. THE
ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF OVER OUR CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE
GFS AND CANADIAN REMAIN DRY OVER OUR AREA AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED
MENTION OF RAIN THIS PACKAGE. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL KNOCK MORNING LOWS FRIDAY BACK INTO THE 30S OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND LIMIT HIGHS FRIDAY TO THE 50S AGAIN.
LONG RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND`S WEATHER
AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A >1028MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF
OUR CWA LIMITING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WHILE OUR WINDS ALOFT BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVING BACK INTO OUR CWA. THE GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN BRINGING RAIN BACK INTO OUR AREA
SATURDAY. NEITHER MODEL BRING THE CLOSED LOW EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...INSTEAD A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SUPPORT
ANOTHER FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WETTER
GFS SOLUTION THROUGH SUNDAY. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURE PROFILES POINT TO
A COLD RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING
A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT FROM W/SW TO NW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT NRN/ERN TERMINALS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF CIG/VISBY
REDUCTIONS. OTHERWISE THOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...THE CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30
KTS POSSIBLE. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  41  53  38 /   5   9   0   0
MERIDIAN      64  42  52  34 /   6  13   0   0
VICKSBURG     65  40  56  39 /   2   6   0   0
HATTIESBURG   68  42  57  37 /   0   2   0   0
NATCHEZ       65  40  55  40 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    60  38  53  39 /  12  12   0   0
GREENWOOD     60  39  52  37 /  17  19   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/22






000
FXUS64 KJAN 250251 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
851 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
TEMPS DROPPED QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND THEREFORE HAD TO
ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO MATCH THE TREND. THOUGH WITH
THE HIGH CIRRUS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE CWA...TEMPS WILL
NOT FALL MUCH MORE THIS OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOWS WILL BE IN THE
30S BY MORNING. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
QUIET NIGHT IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. SOME GUIDANCE WAS AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPING IFR CEILINGS
ACROSS THE EAST HALF BY 09Z. I DON`T FEEL THAT IS REALLY POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE DRIER LOW LEVELS WHICH WERE CONFIRMED BY 00Z RAOBS. THE
MAIN ISSUE FOR SUN WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS AND ESPECIALLY THE
HIGHER GUSTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SOME SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR GWO/GTR LOCATIONS AFTER 20Z. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DECOUPLING OF THE
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND DECENT NIGHTTIME COOLING...BUT EXPECT LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE PARTICULARLY OVER THE DELTA REGION
WHICH ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS COULD KEEP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES UP.
HAVE CUT MODEL BLENDED GUIDANCE SOME IN THE EAST FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TOMORROW...GUIDANCE FORECASTS TEND TO UNDERDO MIXING
AHEAD OF COLD FRONTS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HAVE INCREASED HIGHS AND
SFC WINDS WITH THIS IN MIND. NOT EXPECTING A WIND ADVISORY SITUATION
BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS IN THE DELTA REGION.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SEND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR COMBINED WITH
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS/LIFT WILL PROMOTE SOME LIGHT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED
BY A PERIOD OF STRATOCUMULUS LASTING INTO MONDAY MORNING AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AS A PRONOUNCED THERMAL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. /EC/

LONG TERM...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A PERIOD OF
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE JANUARY...WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN PRODUCING STEADY DAYTIME NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS (ALTHOUGH
TAPPING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ARCTIC AIR). TEMPERATURES OVER THIS
PERIOD WILL TREND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE
LA AND SW MS...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ELSEWHERE IN THE
REGION. ANY FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED EAST
OF INTERSTATE 55.

MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE WEATHER COULD START GRADUALLY TRENDING
DOWNHILL AGAIN BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MOVES IN THE FROM THE NORTH...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERING WARMTH. MINOR RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY ENTER THE
PICTURE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ANCHOR BACKS UP A BIT AND SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY
INCREASES. LONGER RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE
DETAILS OF WHAT MAY TRANSPIRE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SET UP NEAR THE COAST
WITH A TRAILING SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING OVERRUNNING
PRECIP IN A CLASSIC SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. IT IS DEFINITELY SOMETHING
TO WATCH GOING FORWARD BUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR EVENTUAL WINTRY IMPACTS
IS IFFY (AND STILL BEYOND THE OFFICIAL LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST). /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       35  64  38  51 /   0   8   6   2
MERIDIAN      33  63  38  50 /   0   9   9   3
VICKSBURG     37  65  38  53 /   0   9   4   1
HATTIESBURG   36  66  40  53 /   0   6   5   1
NATCHEZ       38  65  39  53 /   0   5   4   1
GREENVILLE    37  61  36  50 /   0  12   7   1
GREENWOOD     35  60  36  48 /   0  16  14   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KJAN 250251 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
851 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
TEMPS DROPPED QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND THEREFORE HAD TO
ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO MATCH THE TREND. THOUGH WITH
THE HIGH CIRRUS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE CWA...TEMPS WILL
NOT FALL MUCH MORE THIS OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOWS WILL BE IN THE
30S BY MORNING. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
QUIET NIGHT IN THE AVIATION DEPARTMENT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. SOME GUIDANCE WAS AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPING IFR CEILINGS
ACROSS THE EAST HALF BY 09Z. I DON`T FEEL THAT IS REALLY POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE DRIER LOW LEVELS WHICH WERE CONFIRMED BY 00Z RAOBS. THE
MAIN ISSUE FOR SUN WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS AND ESPECIALLY THE
HIGHER GUSTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SOME SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR GWO/GTR LOCATIONS AFTER 20Z. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DECOUPLING OF THE
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND DECENT NIGHTTIME COOLING...BUT EXPECT LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE PARTICULARLY OVER THE DELTA REGION
WHICH ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS COULD KEEP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES UP.
HAVE CUT MODEL BLENDED GUIDANCE SOME IN THE EAST FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TOMORROW...GUIDANCE FORECASTS TEND TO UNDERDO MIXING
AHEAD OF COLD FRONTS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HAVE INCREASED HIGHS AND
SFC WINDS WITH THIS IN MIND. NOT EXPECTING A WIND ADVISORY SITUATION
BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS IN THE DELTA REGION.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SEND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR COMBINED WITH
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS/LIFT WILL PROMOTE SOME LIGHT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED
BY A PERIOD OF STRATOCUMULUS LASTING INTO MONDAY MORNING AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AS A PRONOUNCED THERMAL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. /EC/

LONG TERM...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A PERIOD OF
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE JANUARY...WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN PRODUCING STEADY DAYTIME NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS (ALTHOUGH
TAPPING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ARCTIC AIR). TEMPERATURES OVER THIS
PERIOD WILL TREND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE
LA AND SW MS...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ELSEWHERE IN THE
REGION. ANY FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED EAST
OF INTERSTATE 55.

MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE WEATHER COULD START GRADUALLY TRENDING
DOWNHILL AGAIN BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MOVES IN THE FROM THE NORTH...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERING WARMTH. MINOR RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY ENTER THE
PICTURE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ANCHOR BACKS UP A BIT AND SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY
INCREASES. LONGER RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE
DETAILS OF WHAT MAY TRANSPIRE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SET UP NEAR THE COAST
WITH A TRAILING SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING OVERRUNNING
PRECIP IN A CLASSIC SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. IT IS DEFINITELY SOMETHING
TO WATCH GOING FORWARD BUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR EVENTUAL WINTRY IMPACTS
IS IFFY (AND STILL BEYOND THE OFFICIAL LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST). /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       35  64  38  51 /   0   8   6   2
MERIDIAN      33  63  38  50 /   0   9   9   3
VICKSBURG     37  65  38  53 /   0   9   4   1
HATTIESBURG   36  66  40  53 /   0   6   5   1
NATCHEZ       38  65  39  53 /   0   5   4   1
GREENVILLE    37  61  36  50 /   0  12   7   1
GREENWOOD     35  60  36  48 /   0  16  14   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 242202
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
402 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DECOUPLING OF THE
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND DECENT NIGHTTIME COOLING...BUT EXPECT LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE PARTICULARLY OVER THE DELTA REGION
WHICH ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS COULD KEEP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES UP.
HAVE CUT MODEL BLENDED GUIDANCE SOME IN THE EAST FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TOMORROW...GUIDANCE FORECASTS TEND TO UNDERDO MIXING
AHEAD OF COLD FRONTS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HAVE INCREASED HIGHS AND
SFC WINDS WITH THIS IN MIND. NOT EXPECTING A WIND ADVISORY SITUATION
BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS IN THE DELTA REGION.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SEND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR COMBINED WITH
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS/LIFT WILL PROMOTE SOME LIGHT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED
BY A PERIOD OF STRATOCUMULUS LASTING INTO MONDAY MORNING AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AS A PRONOUNCED THERMAL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. /EC/

LONG TERM...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A PERIOD OF
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE JANUARY...WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN PRODUCING STEADY DAYTIME NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS (ALTHOUGH
TAPPING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ARCTIC AIR). TEMPERATURES OVER THIS
PERIOD WILL TREND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE
LA AND SW MS...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ELSEWHERE IN THE
REGION. ANY FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED EAST
OF INTERSTATE 55.

MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE WEATHER COULD START GRADUALLY TRENDING
DOWNHILL AGAIN BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MOVES IN THE FROM THE NORTH...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERING WARMTH. MINOR RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY ENTER THE
PICTURE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ANCHOR BACKS UP A BIT AND SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY
INCREASES. LONGER RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE
DETAILS OF WHAT MAY TRANSPIRE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SET UP NEAR THE COAST
WITH A TRAILING SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING OVERRUNNING
PRECIP IN A CLASSIC SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. IT IS DEFINITELY SOMETHING
TO WATCH GOING FORWARD BUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR EVENTUAL WINTRY IMPACTS
IS IFFY (AND STILL BEYOND THE OFFICIAL LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST). /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10KTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT SOUTHERN TAF SITES. ANY
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       37  64  38  51 /   0   8   6   2
MERIDIAN      33  63  38  50 /   0   9   9   3
VICKSBURG     37  65  38  53 /   0   9   4   1
HATTIESBURG   36  66  40  53 /   0   6   5   1
NATCHEZ       38  65  39  53 /   0   5   4   1
GREENVILLE    37  61  36  50 /   0  12   7   1
GREENWOOD     37  60  36  48 /   0  16  14   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

EC/BB/28/






000
FXUS64 KJAN 242202
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
402 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DECOUPLING OF THE
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND DECENT NIGHTTIME COOLING...BUT EXPECT LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE PARTICULARLY OVER THE DELTA REGION
WHICH ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS COULD KEEP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES UP.
HAVE CUT MODEL BLENDED GUIDANCE SOME IN THE EAST FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TOMORROW...GUIDANCE FORECASTS TEND TO UNDERDO MIXING
AHEAD OF COLD FRONTS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HAVE INCREASED HIGHS AND
SFC WINDS WITH THIS IN MIND. NOT EXPECTING A WIND ADVISORY SITUATION
BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS IN THE DELTA REGION.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SEND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR COMBINED WITH
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS/LIFT WILL PROMOTE SOME LIGHT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED
BY A PERIOD OF STRATOCUMULUS LASTING INTO MONDAY MORNING AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AS A PRONOUNCED THERMAL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. /EC/

LONG TERM...

MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A PERIOD OF
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE JANUARY...WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN PRODUCING STEADY DAYTIME NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS (ALTHOUGH
TAPPING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ARCTIC AIR). TEMPERATURES OVER THIS
PERIOD WILL TREND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE
LA AND SW MS...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ELSEWHERE IN THE
REGION. ANY FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED EAST
OF INTERSTATE 55.

MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE WEATHER COULD START GRADUALLY TRENDING
DOWNHILL AGAIN BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MOVES IN THE FROM THE NORTH...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERING WARMTH. MINOR RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY ENTER THE
PICTURE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ANCHOR BACKS UP A BIT AND SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY
INCREASES. LONGER RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE
DETAILS OF WHAT MAY TRANSPIRE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SET UP NEAR THE COAST
WITH A TRAILING SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING OVERRUNNING
PRECIP IN A CLASSIC SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. IT IS DEFINITELY SOMETHING
TO WATCH GOING FORWARD BUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR EVENTUAL WINTRY IMPACTS
IS IFFY (AND STILL BEYOND THE OFFICIAL LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST). /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10KTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT SOUTHERN TAF SITES. ANY
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIFT TO VFR CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       37  64  38  51 /   0   8   6   2
MERIDIAN      33  63  38  50 /   0   9   9   3
VICKSBURG     37  65  38  53 /   0   9   4   1
HATTIESBURG   36  66  40  53 /   0   6   5   1
NATCHEZ       38  65  39  53 /   0   5   4   1
GREENVILLE    37  61  36  50 /   0  12   7   1
GREENWOOD     37  60  36  48 /   0  16  14   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

EC/BB/28/







000
FXUS64 KJAN 241641
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1041 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NECESSARY IN THIS UPDATE. /EC/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
NOW RESIDING EAST OF THE REGION.  WHILE WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
WEST STRUGGLES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...ALOFT..NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WITH CLOUDS FOLLOWING SUIT AND EXITING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...LOOK OR AN OVERALL NICE LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS TODAY.  UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 50S AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOW AND MIDDLE 30S.

CLOUDS INCREASE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES SUNDAY.  UNDER CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW...A FAST
MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AT BOTH THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT...IN ADDITION TO THE BETTER LIFT EXISTING WELL TO
MY NORTHEAST...MY CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONLY THE BEFORE MENTIONED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS DISTURBANCE.
THEREFORE...I`LL LEAVE THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST ON
THIS PACKAGE.  OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES WITH THIS APPROACH.

OTHERWISE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS AS HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE CLOUDS OVERHEAD...BUT WILL STILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S
TO THE LOWER 40S. /19/

LONG TERM...MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE FAST-MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM COMING THROUGH EARLIER SUNDAY WILL USHER IN A GLANCING SHOT
OF CHILLIER AIR TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION FOR MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ON MONDAY SO EVEN
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOME SPOTS WILL NOT BE TOO BAD.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A PERIOD OF
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE JANUARY...WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN PRODUCING STEADY DAYTIME NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS (ALTHOUGH
TAPPING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ARCTIC AIR). TEMPERATURES OVER THIS
PERIOD WILL TREND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE
LA AND SW MS...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ELSEWHERE IN THE
REGION. ANY FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED EAST
OF INTERSTATE 55.

MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE WEATHER COULD START GRADUALLY TRENDING
DOWNHILL AGAIN BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MOVES IN THE FROM THE NORTH...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERING WARMTH. MINOR RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY ENTER THE
PICTURE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ANCHOR BACKS UP A BIT AND SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY
INCREASES. LONGER RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE
DETAILS OF WHAT MAY TRANSPIRE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SET UP NEAR THE COAST
WITH A TRAILING SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING OVERRUNNING
PRECIP IN A CLASSIC SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. IT IS DEFINITELY SOMETHING
TO WATCH GOING FORWARD BUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR EVENTUAL WINTRY IMPACTS
IS IFFY (AND STILL BEYOND THE OFFICIAL LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST). /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KJAN 241641
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1041 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NECESSARY IN THIS UPDATE. /EC/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
NOW RESIDING EAST OF THE REGION.  WHILE WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
WEST STRUGGLES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...ALOFT..NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WITH CLOUDS FOLLOWING SUIT AND EXITING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...LOOK OR AN OVERALL NICE LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS TODAY.  UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 50S AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOW AND MIDDLE 30S.

CLOUDS INCREASE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES SUNDAY.  UNDER CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW...A FAST
MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AT BOTH THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT...IN ADDITION TO THE BETTER LIFT EXISTING WELL TO
MY NORTHEAST...MY CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONLY THE BEFORE MENTIONED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS DISTURBANCE.
THEREFORE...I`LL LEAVE THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST ON
THIS PACKAGE.  OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES WITH THIS APPROACH.

OTHERWISE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS AS HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE CLOUDS OVERHEAD...BUT WILL STILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S
TO THE LOWER 40S. /19/

LONG TERM...MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE FAST-MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM COMING THROUGH EARLIER SUNDAY WILL USHER IN A GLANCING SHOT
OF CHILLIER AIR TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION FOR MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ON MONDAY SO EVEN
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOME SPOTS WILL NOT BE TOO BAD.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A PERIOD OF
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE JANUARY...WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN PRODUCING STEADY DAYTIME NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS (ALTHOUGH
TAPPING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ARCTIC AIR). TEMPERATURES OVER THIS
PERIOD WILL TREND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE
LA AND SW MS...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ELSEWHERE IN THE
REGION. ANY FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED EAST
OF INTERSTATE 55.

MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE WEATHER COULD START GRADUALLY TRENDING
DOWNHILL AGAIN BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MOVES IN THE FROM THE NORTH...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERING WARMTH. MINOR RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY ENTER THE
PICTURE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ANCHOR BACKS UP A BIT AND SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY
INCREASES. LONGER RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE
DETAILS OF WHAT MAY TRANSPIRE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SET UP NEAR THE COAST
WITH A TRAILING SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING OVERRUNNING
PRECIP IN A CLASSIC SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. IT IS DEFINITELY SOMETHING
TO WATCH GOING FORWARD BUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR EVENTUAL WINTRY IMPACTS
IS IFFY (AND STILL BEYOND THE OFFICIAL LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST). /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 240944
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
344 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
NOW RESIDING EAST OF THE REGION.  WHILE WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
WEST STRUGGLES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...ALOFT..NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WITH CLOUDS FOLLOWING SUIT AND EXITING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...LOOK OR AN OVERALL NICE LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS TODAY.  UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 50S AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOW AND MIDDLE 30S.

CLOUDS INCREASE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES SUNDAY.  UNDER CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW...A FAST
MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AT BOTH THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT...IN ADDITION TO THE BETTER LIFT EXISTING WELL TO
MY NORTHEAST...MY CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONLY THE BEFORE MENTIONED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS DISTURBANCE.
THEREFORE...I`LL LEAVE THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST ON
THIS PACKAGE.  OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES WITH THIS APPROACH.

OTHERWISE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS AS HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE CLOUDS OVERHEAD...BUT WILL STILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S
TO THE LOWER 40S. /19/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE FAST-MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM COMING THROUGH EARLIER SUNDAY WILL USHER IN A GLANCING SHOT
OF CHILLIER AIR TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION FOR MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ON MONDAY SO EVEN
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOME SPOTS WILL NOT BE TOO BAD.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A PERIOD OF
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE JANUARY...WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN PRODUCING STEADY DAYTIME NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS (ALTHOUGH
TAPPING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ARCTIC AIR). TEMPERATURES OVER THIS
PERIOD WILL TREND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE
LA AND SW MS...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ELSEWHERE IN THE
REGION. ANY FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED EAST
OF INTERSTATE 55.

MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE WEATHER COULD START GRADUALLY TRENDING
DOWNHILL AGAIN BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MOVES IN THE FROM THE NORTH...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERING WARMTH. MINOR RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY ENTER THE
PICTURE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ANCHOR BACKS UP A BIT AND SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY
INCREASES. LONGER RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE
DETAILS OF WHAT MAY TRANSPIRE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SET UP NEAR THE COAST
WITH A TRAILING SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING OVERRUNNING
PRECIP IN A CLASSIC SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. IT IS DEFINITELY SOMETHING
TO WATCH GOING FORWARD BUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR EVENTUAL WINTRY IMPACTS
IS IFFY (AND STILL BEYOND THE OFFICIAL LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST). /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
BY THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES...AND CONTINUE SO THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE WESTERLY FROM 5-10 KNOTS...AND WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO CALM HEADING INTO TONIGHT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       34  63  38  55 /   0  10   1   2
MERIDIAN      33  61  37  54 /   0  14   8   3
VICKSBURG     35  64  38  56 /   0  10   0   1
HATTIESBURG   36  66  41  58 /   0   5   3   2
NATCHEZ       36  64  40  58 /   0   7   1   1
GREENVILLE    36  61  35  54 /   0  12   6   2
GREENWOOD     36  60  36  51 /   0  13   9   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/BB







000
FXUS64 KJAN 240944
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
344 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
NOW RESIDING EAST OF THE REGION.  WHILE WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
WEST STRUGGLES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...ALOFT..NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WITH CLOUDS FOLLOWING SUIT AND EXITING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...LOOK OR AN OVERALL NICE LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS TODAY.  UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 50S AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOW AND MIDDLE 30S.

CLOUDS INCREASE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES SUNDAY.  UNDER CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW...A FAST
MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AT BOTH THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT...IN ADDITION TO THE BETTER LIFT EXISTING WELL TO
MY NORTHEAST...MY CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONLY THE BEFORE MENTIONED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS DISTURBANCE.
THEREFORE...I`LL LEAVE THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST ON
THIS PACKAGE.  OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES WITH THIS APPROACH.

OTHERWISE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR INCREASING
CLOUDS AS HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE CLOUDS OVERHEAD...BUT WILL STILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S
TO THE LOWER 40S. /19/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE FAST-MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM COMING THROUGH EARLIER SUNDAY WILL USHER IN A GLANCING SHOT
OF CHILLIER AIR TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION FOR MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ON MONDAY SO EVEN
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S IN SOME SPOTS WILL NOT BE TOO BAD.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A PERIOD OF
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LATE JANUARY...WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN PRODUCING STEADY DAYTIME NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS (ALTHOUGH
TAPPING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ARCTIC AIR). TEMPERATURES OVER THIS
PERIOD WILL TREND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE
LA AND SW MS...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ELSEWHERE IN THE
REGION. ANY FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED EAST
OF INTERSTATE 55.

MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE WEATHER COULD START GRADUALLY TRENDING
DOWNHILL AGAIN BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT MOVES IN THE FROM THE NORTH...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERING WARMTH. MINOR RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY ENTER THE
PICTURE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ANCHOR BACKS UP A BIT AND SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY
INCREASES. LONGER RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE
DETAILS OF WHAT MAY TRANSPIRE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SET UP NEAR THE COAST
WITH A TRAILING SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRIGGERING OVERRUNNING
PRECIP IN A CLASSIC SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. IT IS DEFINITELY SOMETHING
TO WATCH GOING FORWARD BUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR EVENTUAL WINTRY IMPACTS
IS IFFY (AND STILL BEYOND THE OFFICIAL LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST). /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
BY THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES...AND CONTINUE SO THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE WESTERLY FROM 5-10 KNOTS...AND WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO CALM HEADING INTO TONIGHT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       34  63  38  55 /   0  10   1   2
MERIDIAN      33  61  37  54 /   0  14   8   3
VICKSBURG     35  64  38  56 /   0  10   0   1
HATTIESBURG   36  66  41  58 /   0   5   3   2
NATCHEZ       36  64  40  58 /   0   7   1   1
GREENVILLE    36  61  35  54 /   0  12   6   2
GREENWOOD     36  60  36  51 /   0  13   9   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/BB






000
FXUS64 KJAN 240329 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
929 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. RAIN LOOKS TO BE MOVING OUT
QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO ADJUSTED WX GRIDS TO END THE RAIN
SOONER TONIGHT AND TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF SNOW. THERE COULD BE A
FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN ACROSS THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE JUST BEFORE THE
RAIN ENDS...BUT THE PROBABILITY APPEARS TO BE QUITE LOW. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND TO THE QPF FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH WITH A MIXED BAG OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MORE OF MVFR AND IFR AS WE GO
BEYOND 06-09Z WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED FOR A LARGE PART
OF FRI. THE RAIN WILL BECOME GENERALLY LIGHTER AND MORE OF A DRIZZLE
TYPE OF EVENT AFTER 09-12Z. /CME/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED A 1008MB LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE
LOW WAS STILL PRODUCING A CHILLY NORTH WIND OVER OUR CWA. MOST OF
THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW HAS SHIFTED
EAST OF OUR CWA BUT ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS NOTED IN A BAND MOVING OVER OUR
NORTHWEST MOST ZONES. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT RESULTING IN FAIRLY HIGH POPS OF VERY LOW QPF...OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS BUT WILL LOWER THIS EVENING
WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT LOWER AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS OUR AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THE LIGHT RAIN MAY
BECOME MIXED WITH OR BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE
TAPERING OFF ACROSS OUR HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. HIRES MODELS SUGGEST
THIS POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AS WELL. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS SO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE A LIGHT DUSTING ON
GRASSY SURFACES OVER OUR NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION WILL
END FROM THE WEST AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA AND ALL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ENDED BEFORE DAYBREAK. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP SATURDAY OUT MORE THAN
TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL. DRY
WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY DESPITE A NEARLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING.
A FEW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTHEAST BUT MODELS AGREE
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. LITTLE
CHANGE WAS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM PERIOD SO THE RELEVANT
PART OF THE DISCUSSION WL FOLLOW. /22/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...UPSTREAM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A FEW CONTINENTAL COLD AIR SURGES
MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH ANY REAL
CHANCES OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SURGES (AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS) CONFINED WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THE GENERAL PATTERN
SUGGESTS 3 TO 4 DAYS OF EFFICIENT DAYTIME MIXING (AND THEREFORE
WARMING) WITH NIGHTS CAPABLE OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BLENDED
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ZONES) AND DEVIATIONS FROM THE MAIN
BLEND WERE NOT MAJOR. HOWEVER...I DID TEND TO FOLLOW THE OPERATIONAL
EURO IDEA OF TIMING OF A COOL AIR SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SUBTLY
TRENDING GUIDANCE COOLER (OR WARMER) BASED ON THE UNDETAILED BLEND.
ALL IN ALL...THIS SHOULD BE DECENT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
CONSIDERING THE CALENDAR DATE.

BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL START MAKING
INROADS TOWARD THE REGION...INCREASING CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE TYPICALLY-SOLID EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL
MODEL STILL IS INSISTENT ON CUTTING OFF A BIG PIECE OF THIS SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE EFFECT OF
CONFINING INCLEMENT WEATHER MOSTLY WEST OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS TENDS TO PHASE THIS
ENERGY WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM...WHICH WOULD ENSURE MUCH MORE
IMPACT IN OUR REGION. THE LATTER CONSENSUS ALSO TENDS TO SUGGESTS
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP COULD COINCIDE WITH A LARGER COLD AIR SURGE INTO
THE SOUTH...AND THAT IS OF COURSE AN INTERESTING PROSPECT. BUT ANY
MEANINGFUL JUXTAPOSITION OF THOSE TWO ELEMENTS WOULD BE BEYOND THE
CURRENT LONG TERM PERIOD SO WE HAVE SOME MORE TIME TO LET MODEL
INCONGRUITIES LESSEN. /BB/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       33  54  35  63 /  72   2   0   2
MERIDIAN      34  55  33  62 /  69   2   0   3
VICKSBURG     33  55  36  64 /  66   2   0   2
HATTIESBURG   36  57  34  64 /  46   2   0   2
NATCHEZ       34  56  37  63 /  56   2   0   2
GREENVILLE    32  53  35  59 /  47   2   0   4
GREENWOOD     31  53  35  59 /  64   2   0   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 240329 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
929 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. RAIN LOOKS TO BE MOVING OUT
QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO ADJUSTED WX GRIDS TO END THE RAIN
SOONER TONIGHT AND TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF SNOW. THERE COULD BE A
FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN ACROSS THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE JUST BEFORE THE
RAIN ENDS...BUT THE PROBABILITY APPEARS TO BE QUITE LOW. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND TO THE QPF FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH WITH A MIXED BAG OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MORE OF MVFR AND IFR AS WE GO
BEYOND 06-09Z WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED FOR A LARGE PART
OF FRI. THE RAIN WILL BECOME GENERALLY LIGHTER AND MORE OF A DRIZZLE
TYPE OF EVENT AFTER 09-12Z. /CME/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED A 1008MB LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE
LOW WAS STILL PRODUCING A CHILLY NORTH WIND OVER OUR CWA. MOST OF
THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW HAS SHIFTED
EAST OF OUR CWA BUT ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS NOTED IN A BAND MOVING OVER OUR
NORTHWEST MOST ZONES. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT RESULTING IN FAIRLY HIGH POPS OF VERY LOW QPF...OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS BUT WILL LOWER THIS EVENING
WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT LOWER AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS OUR AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THE LIGHT RAIN MAY
BECOME MIXED WITH OR BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE
TAPERING OFF ACROSS OUR HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. HIRES MODELS SUGGEST
THIS POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AS WELL. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS SO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE A LIGHT DUSTING ON
GRASSY SURFACES OVER OUR NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION WILL
END FROM THE WEST AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA AND ALL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ENDED BEFORE DAYBREAK. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP SATURDAY OUT MORE THAN
TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL. DRY
WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY DESPITE A NEARLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING.
A FEW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTHEAST BUT MODELS AGREE
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. LITTLE
CHANGE WAS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM PERIOD SO THE RELEVANT
PART OF THE DISCUSSION WL FOLLOW. /22/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...UPSTREAM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A FEW CONTINENTAL COLD AIR SURGES
MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH ANY REAL
CHANCES OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SURGES (AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS) CONFINED WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THE GENERAL PATTERN
SUGGESTS 3 TO 4 DAYS OF EFFICIENT DAYTIME MIXING (AND THEREFORE
WARMING) WITH NIGHTS CAPABLE OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BLENDED
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ZONES) AND DEVIATIONS FROM THE MAIN
BLEND WERE NOT MAJOR. HOWEVER...I DID TEND TO FOLLOW THE OPERATIONAL
EURO IDEA OF TIMING OF A COOL AIR SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SUBTLY
TRENDING GUIDANCE COOLER (OR WARMER) BASED ON THE UNDETAILED BLEND.
ALL IN ALL...THIS SHOULD BE DECENT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
CONSIDERING THE CALENDAR DATE.

BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL START MAKING
INROADS TOWARD THE REGION...INCREASING CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE TYPICALLY-SOLID EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL
MODEL STILL IS INSISTENT ON CUTTING OFF A BIG PIECE OF THIS SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE EFFECT OF
CONFINING INCLEMENT WEATHER MOSTLY WEST OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS TENDS TO PHASE THIS
ENERGY WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM...WHICH WOULD ENSURE MUCH MORE
IMPACT IN OUR REGION. THE LATTER CONSENSUS ALSO TENDS TO SUGGESTS
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP COULD COINCIDE WITH A LARGER COLD AIR SURGE INTO
THE SOUTH...AND THAT IS OF COURSE AN INTERESTING PROSPECT. BUT ANY
MEANINGFUL JUXTAPOSITION OF THOSE TWO ELEMENTS WOULD BE BEYOND THE
CURRENT LONG TERM PERIOD SO WE HAVE SOME MORE TIME TO LET MODEL
INCONGRUITIES LESSEN. /BB/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       33  54  35  63 /  72   2   0   2
MERIDIAN      34  55  33  62 /  69   2   0   3
VICKSBURG     33  55  36  64 /  66   2   0   2
HATTIESBURG   36  57  34  64 /  46   2   0   2
NATCHEZ       34  56  37  63 /  56   2   0   2
GREENVILLE    32  53  35  59 /  47   2   0   4
GREENWOOD     31  53  35  59 /  64   2   0   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 232128
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
340 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED A 1008MB LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE
LOW WAS STILL PRODUCING A CHILLY NORTH WIND OVER OUR CWA. MOST OF
THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW HAS SHIFTED
EAST OF OUR CWA BUT ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS NOTED IN A BAND MOVING OVER OUR
NORTHWEST MOST ZONES. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT RESULTING IN FAIRLY HIGH POPS OF VERY LOW QPF...OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS BUT WILL LOWER THIS EVENING
WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT LOWER AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS OUR AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THE LIGHT RAIN MAY
BECOME MIXED WITH OR BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE
TAPERING OFF ACROSS OUR HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. HIRES MODELS SUGGEST
THIS POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AS WELL. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS SO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE A LIGHT DUSTING ON
GRASSY SURFACES OVER OUR NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION WILL
END FROM THE WEST AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA AND ALL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ENDED BEFORE DAYBREAK. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP SATURDAY OUT MORE THAN
TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL. DRY
WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY DESPITE A NEARLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING.
A FEW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTHEAST BUT MODELS AGREE
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. LITTLE
CHANGE WAS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM PERIOD SO THE RELEVANT
PART OF THE DISCUSSION WL FOLLOW. /22/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...UPSTREAM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A FEW CONTINENTAL COLD AIR SURGES
MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH ANY REAL
CHANCES OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SURGES (AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS) CONFINED WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THE GENERAL PATTERN
SUGGESTS 3 TO 4 DAYS OF EFFICIENT DAYTIME MIXING (AND THEREFORE
WARMING) WITH NIGHTS CAPABLE OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BLENDED
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ZONES) AND DEVIATIONS FROM THE MAIN
BLEND WERE NOT MAJOR. HOWEVER...I DID TEND TO FOLLOW THE OPERATIONAL
EURO IDEA OF TIMING OF A COOL AIR SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SUBTLY
TRENDING GUIDANCE COOLER (OR WARMER) BASED ON THE UNDETAILED BLEND.
ALL IN ALL...THIS SHOULD BE DECENT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
CONSIDERING THE CALENDAR DATE.

BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL START MAKING
INROADS TOWARD THE REGION...INCREASING CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE TYPICALLY-SOLID EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL
MODEL STILL IS INSISTENT ON CUTTING OFF A BIG PIECE OF THIS SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE EFFECT OF
CONFINING INCLEMENT WEATHER MOSTLY WEST OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS TENDS TO PHASE THIS
ENERGY WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM...WHICH WOULD ENSURE MUCH MORE
IMPACT IN OUR REGION. THE LATTER CONSENSUS ALSO TENDS TO SUGGESTS
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP COULD COINCIDE WITH A LARGER COLD AIR SURGE INTO
THE SOUTH...AND THAT IS OF COURSE AN INTERESTING PROSPECT. BUT ANY
MEANINGFUL JUXTAPOSITION OF THOSE TWO ELEMENTS WOULD BE BEYOND THE
CURRENT LONG TERM PERIOD SO WE HAVE SOME MORE TIME TO LET MODEL
INCONGRUITIES LESSEN. /BB/22/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
OCCASIONAL -RA. CEILINGS/VISBYS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN THE NORTH
TONIGHT...REACHING VFR AT SITES LIKE GLH AND GWO BY AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOWER TO
IMPROVE...REACHING MVFR BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS MAY
PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF
SHRA WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BETWEEN SUNSET
AND AROUND MIDNIGHT. PRECIP MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO -SN
BEFORE ENDING MAINLY AT NORTHERN TAF SITES...GLH GWO AND GTR...
HOWEVER NO NOTABLE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       33  54  35  63 /  73   2   0   2
MERIDIAN      34  55  33  62 /  70   2   0   3
VICKSBURG     33  55  36  64 /  66   2   0   2
HATTIESBURG   36  57  34  64 /  36   2   0   2
NATCHEZ       34  56  37  63 /  56   2   0   2
GREENVILLE    32  53  35  59 /  47   2   0   4
GREENWOOD     31  53  35  59 /  65   2   0   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/BB/DL









000
FXUS64 KJAN 232128
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
340 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED A 1008MB LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. CIRCULATION AROUND THE
LOW WAS STILL PRODUCING A CHILLY NORTH WIND OVER OUR CWA. MOST OF
THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW HAS SHIFTED
EAST OF OUR CWA BUT ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS NOTED IN A BAND MOVING OVER OUR
NORTHWEST MOST ZONES. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT RESULTING IN FAIRLY HIGH POPS OF VERY LOW QPF...OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS BUT WILL LOWER THIS EVENING
WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT LOWER AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS OUR AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THE LIGHT RAIN MAY
BECOME MIXED WITH OR BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE
TAPERING OFF ACROSS OUR HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. HIRES MODELS SUGGEST
THIS POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AS WELL. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS SO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE A LIGHT DUSTING ON
GRASSY SURFACES OVER OUR NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION WILL
END FROM THE WEST AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA AND ALL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ENDED BEFORE DAYBREAK. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP SATURDAY OUT MORE THAN
TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL. DRY
WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY DESPITE A NEARLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING.
A FEW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTHEAST BUT MODELS AGREE
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. LITTLE
CHANGE WAS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM PERIOD SO THE RELEVANT
PART OF THE DISCUSSION WL FOLLOW. /22/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...UPSTREAM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A FEW CONTINENTAL COLD AIR SURGES
MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH ANY REAL
CHANCES OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SURGES (AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS) CONFINED WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THE GENERAL PATTERN
SUGGESTS 3 TO 4 DAYS OF EFFICIENT DAYTIME MIXING (AND THEREFORE
WARMING) WITH NIGHTS CAPABLE OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BLENDED
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ZONES) AND DEVIATIONS FROM THE MAIN
BLEND WERE NOT MAJOR. HOWEVER...I DID TEND TO FOLLOW THE OPERATIONAL
EURO IDEA OF TIMING OF A COOL AIR SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SUBTLY
TRENDING GUIDANCE COOLER (OR WARMER) BASED ON THE UNDETAILED BLEND.
ALL IN ALL...THIS SHOULD BE DECENT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION
CONSIDERING THE CALENDAR DATE.

BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL START MAKING
INROADS TOWARD THE REGION...INCREASING CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE TYPICALLY-SOLID EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL
MODEL STILL IS INSISTENT ON CUTTING OFF A BIG PIECE OF THIS SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE EFFECT OF
CONFINING INCLEMENT WEATHER MOSTLY WEST OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS TENDS TO PHASE THIS
ENERGY WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM...WHICH WOULD ENSURE MUCH MORE
IMPACT IN OUR REGION. THE LATTER CONSENSUS ALSO TENDS TO SUGGESTS
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP COULD COINCIDE WITH A LARGER COLD AIR SURGE INTO
THE SOUTH...AND THAT IS OF COURSE AN INTERESTING PROSPECT. BUT ANY
MEANINGFUL JUXTAPOSITION OF THOSE TWO ELEMENTS WOULD BE BEYOND THE
CURRENT LONG TERM PERIOD SO WE HAVE SOME MORE TIME TO LET MODEL
INCONGRUITIES LESSEN. /BB/22/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
OCCASIONAL -RA. CEILINGS/VISBYS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN THE NORTH
TONIGHT...REACHING VFR AT SITES LIKE GLH AND GWO BY AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOWER TO
IMPROVE...REACHING MVFR BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS MAY
PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF
SHRA WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BETWEEN SUNSET
AND AROUND MIDNIGHT. PRECIP MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO -SN
BEFORE ENDING MAINLY AT NORTHERN TAF SITES...GLH GWO AND GTR...
HOWEVER NO NOTABLE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       33  54  35  63 /  73   2   0   2
MERIDIAN      34  55  33  62 /  70   2   0   3
VICKSBURG     33  55  36  64 /  66   2   0   2
HATTIESBURG   36  57  34  64 /  36   2   0   2
NATCHEZ       34  56  37  63 /  56   2   0   2
GREENVILLE    32  53  35  59 /  47   2   0   4
GREENWOOD     31  53  35  59 /  65   2   0   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/BB/DL










000
FXUS64 KJAN 231650 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1040 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AND WL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR CWA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING. WITH THE GUSTY NORTH WIND BENEATH OVERCAST SKIES AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WERE LOWERED WITH THE UPDATE BUT TEMPERATURES WERE ON
TRACK. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED -RA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. CEILINGS/VISBYS WILL BEGIN
TO IMPROVE IN THE NORTH TONIGHT...REACHING VFR AT SITES LIKE GLH AND
GWO BY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE...REACHING MVFR BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER MVFR
CEILINGS MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING SATURDAY. PRECIP WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. PRECIP MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE
OVER TO -SN AFTER 00Z MAINLY AT NORTHERN TAF SITES...GLH GWO AND
GTR...HOWEVER NO NOTABLE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE. /DL/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG DEEP LAYERED
WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CWA. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
AND MODEL DATA IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DEEP LAYERED ASCENT WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY LEAVING BEHIND A RAW...CLOUDY...DRIZZLY DAY FOR THE CWA.
EVEN THOUGH THE AREA IS BEING DRY SLOTTED IN ADVANCE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL COLD CORE...BELIEVE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD
COVER AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. HRRR OUTPUT IS SHOWING THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP CLEAR OUT OVER THE SE TWO THIRDS...BUT
MAINTAINS A NEAR STEADY BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OVER NW SECTIONS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE DEFORMATION ZONE.

AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...DEEP
LAYERED COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR RISING THETA SURFACE AND MORE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR BEFORE ALL THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS CLEARING OUT DURING THE MORNING SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE MAKE IT INTO THE LOW TO
MID 50S./26/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK...PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...UPSTREAM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A FEW CONTINENTAL COLD AIR SURGES
MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH ANY REAL
CHANCES OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SURGES (AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS) CONFINED WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THE GENERAL PATTERN
SUGGESTS 3 TO 4 DAYS OF EFFICIENT DAYTIME MIXING (AND THEREFORE
WARMING) WITH NIGHTS CAPABLE OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BLENDED
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ZONES) AND DEVIATIONS FROM THE MAIN
BLEND WERE NOT MAJOR. HOWEVER...I DID TEND TO FOLLOW LATEST
OPERATIONAL EURO IDEA OF TIMING OF COOL AIR SURGES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SUBTLY TRENDING GUIDANCE COOLER (OR
WARMER) BASED ON THE UNDETAILED BLEND. ALL IN ALL...THIS SHOULD BE
DECENT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION CONSIDERING THE CALENDAR
DATE.

BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL START MAKING
INROADS TOWARD THE REGION...INCREASING CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE TYPICALLY-SOLID EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL
MODEL STILL IS INSISTENT ON CUTTING OFF A BIG PIECE OF THIS SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE EFFECT OF
CONFINING INCLEMENT WEATHER MOSTLY WEST OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS TENDS TO PHASE THIS
ENERGY WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM...WHICH WOULD ENSURE MUCH MORE
IMPACT IN OUR REGION. THE LATTER CONSENSUS ALSO TENDS TO SUGGESTS
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP COULD COINCIDE WITH A LARGER COLD AIR SURGE INTO
THE SOUTH...AND THAT IS OF COURSE AN INTERESTING PROSPECT. BUT ANY
MEANINGFUL JUXTAPOSITION OF THOSE TWO ELEMENTS WOULD BE BEYOND THE
CURRENT LONG TERM PERIOD SO WE HAVE SOME MORE TIME TO LET MODEL
INCONGRUITIES LESSEN. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       43  34  53  34 /  53  73   8   2
MERIDIAN      46  35  52  31 /  54  70  10   3
VICKSBURG     42  33  54  36 /  73  66   6   2
HATTIESBURG   48  36  55  34 /  54  51   8   2
NATCHEZ       43  34  55  36 /  68  56   7   2
GREENVILLE    41  32  53  35 /  89  51   6   2
GREENWOOD     41  31  53  34 /  81  65   7   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/DL/26/BB









000
FXUS64 KJAN 231650 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1040 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AND WL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR CWA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING. WITH THE GUSTY NORTH WIND BENEATH OVERCAST SKIES AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WERE LOWERED WITH THE UPDATE BUT TEMPERATURES WERE ON
TRACK. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED -RA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. CEILINGS/VISBYS WILL BEGIN
TO IMPROVE IN THE NORTH TONIGHT...REACHING VFR AT SITES LIKE GLH AND
GWO BY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE...REACHING MVFR BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER MVFR
CEILINGS MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING SATURDAY. PRECIP WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. PRECIP MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE
OVER TO -SN AFTER 00Z MAINLY AT NORTHERN TAF SITES...GLH GWO AND
GTR...HOWEVER NO NOTABLE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE. /DL/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG DEEP LAYERED
WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CWA. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
AND MODEL DATA IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DEEP LAYERED ASCENT WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY LEAVING BEHIND A RAW...CLOUDY...DRIZZLY DAY FOR THE CWA.
EVEN THOUGH THE AREA IS BEING DRY SLOTTED IN ADVANCE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL COLD CORE...BELIEVE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD
COVER AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. HRRR OUTPUT IS SHOWING THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP CLEAR OUT OVER THE SE TWO THIRDS...BUT
MAINTAINS A NEAR STEADY BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OVER NW SECTIONS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE DEFORMATION ZONE.

AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...DEEP
LAYERED COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR RISING THETA SURFACE AND MORE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR BEFORE ALL THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS CLEARING OUT DURING THE MORNING SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE MAKE IT INTO THE LOW TO
MID 50S./26/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK...PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...UPSTREAM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A FEW CONTINENTAL COLD AIR SURGES
MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH ANY REAL
CHANCES OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SURGES (AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS) CONFINED WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THE GENERAL PATTERN
SUGGESTS 3 TO 4 DAYS OF EFFICIENT DAYTIME MIXING (AND THEREFORE
WARMING) WITH NIGHTS CAPABLE OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BLENDED
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ZONES) AND DEVIATIONS FROM THE MAIN
BLEND WERE NOT MAJOR. HOWEVER...I DID TEND TO FOLLOW LATEST
OPERATIONAL EURO IDEA OF TIMING OF COOL AIR SURGES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SUBTLY TRENDING GUIDANCE COOLER (OR
WARMER) BASED ON THE UNDETAILED BLEND. ALL IN ALL...THIS SHOULD BE
DECENT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION CONSIDERING THE CALENDAR
DATE.

BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL START MAKING
INROADS TOWARD THE REGION...INCREASING CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE TYPICALLY-SOLID EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL
MODEL STILL IS INSISTENT ON CUTTING OFF A BIG PIECE OF THIS SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE EFFECT OF
CONFINING INCLEMENT WEATHER MOSTLY WEST OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS TENDS TO PHASE THIS
ENERGY WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM...WHICH WOULD ENSURE MUCH MORE
IMPACT IN OUR REGION. THE LATTER CONSENSUS ALSO TENDS TO SUGGESTS
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP COULD COINCIDE WITH A LARGER COLD AIR SURGE INTO
THE SOUTH...AND THAT IS OF COURSE AN INTERESTING PROSPECT. BUT ANY
MEANINGFUL JUXTAPOSITION OF THOSE TWO ELEMENTS WOULD BE BEYOND THE
CURRENT LONG TERM PERIOD SO WE HAVE SOME MORE TIME TO LET MODEL
INCONGRUITIES LESSEN. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       43  34  53  34 /  53  73   8   2
MERIDIAN      46  35  52  31 /  54  70  10   3
VICKSBURG     42  33  54  36 /  73  66   6   2
HATTIESBURG   48  36  55  34 /  54  51   8   2
NATCHEZ       43  34  55  36 /  68  56   7   2
GREENVILLE    41  32  53  35 /  89  51   6   2
GREENWOOD     41  31  53  34 /  81  65   7   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/DL/26/BB










000
FXUS64 KJAN 231650 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1040 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AND WL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIGHT RAIN AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR CWA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING. WITH THE GUSTY NORTH WIND BENEATH OVERCAST SKIES AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WERE LOWERED WITH THE UPDATE BUT TEMPERATURES WERE ON
TRACK. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED -RA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. CEILINGS/VISBYS WILL BEGIN
TO IMPROVE IN THE NORTH TONIGHT...REACHING VFR AT SITES LIKE GLH AND
GWO BY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE...REACHING MVFR BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER MVFR
CEILINGS MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING SATURDAY. PRECIP WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. PRECIP MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE
OVER TO -SN AFTER 00Z MAINLY AT NORTHERN TAF SITES...GLH GWO AND
GTR...HOWEVER NO NOTABLE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE. /DL/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG DEEP LAYERED
WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CWA. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
AND MODEL DATA IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DEEP LAYERED ASCENT WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY LEAVING BEHIND A RAW...CLOUDY...DRIZZLY DAY FOR THE CWA.
EVEN THOUGH THE AREA IS BEING DRY SLOTTED IN ADVANCE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL COLD CORE...BELIEVE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD
COVER AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. HRRR OUTPUT IS SHOWING THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP CLEAR OUT OVER THE SE TWO THIRDS...BUT
MAINTAINS A NEAR STEADY BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OVER NW SECTIONS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE DEFORMATION ZONE.

AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...DEEP
LAYERED COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR RISING THETA SURFACE AND MORE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR BEFORE ALL THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS CLEARING OUT DURING THE MORNING SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE MAKE IT INTO THE LOW TO
MID 50S./26/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK...PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...UPSTREAM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A FEW CONTINENTAL COLD AIR SURGES
MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH ANY REAL
CHANCES OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SURGES (AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS) CONFINED WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THE GENERAL PATTERN
SUGGESTS 3 TO 4 DAYS OF EFFICIENT DAYTIME MIXING (AND THEREFORE
WARMING) WITH NIGHTS CAPABLE OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BLENDED
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ZONES) AND DEVIATIONS FROM THE MAIN
BLEND WERE NOT MAJOR. HOWEVER...I DID TEND TO FOLLOW LATEST
OPERATIONAL EURO IDEA OF TIMING OF COOL AIR SURGES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SUBTLY TRENDING GUIDANCE COOLER (OR
WARMER) BASED ON THE UNDETAILED BLEND. ALL IN ALL...THIS SHOULD BE
DECENT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION CONSIDERING THE CALENDAR
DATE.

BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL START MAKING
INROADS TOWARD THE REGION...INCREASING CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE TYPICALLY-SOLID EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL
MODEL STILL IS INSISTENT ON CUTTING OFF A BIG PIECE OF THIS SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE EFFECT OF
CONFINING INCLEMENT WEATHER MOSTLY WEST OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS TENDS TO PHASE THIS
ENERGY WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM...WHICH WOULD ENSURE MUCH MORE
IMPACT IN OUR REGION. THE LATTER CONSENSUS ALSO TENDS TO SUGGESTS
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP COULD COINCIDE WITH A LARGER COLD AIR SURGE INTO
THE SOUTH...AND THAT IS OF COURSE AN INTERESTING PROSPECT. BUT ANY
MEANINGFUL JUXTAPOSITION OF THOSE TWO ELEMENTS WOULD BE BEYOND THE
CURRENT LONG TERM PERIOD SO WE HAVE SOME MORE TIME TO LET MODEL
INCONGRUITIES LESSEN. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       43  34  53  34 /  53  73   8   2
MERIDIAN      46  35  52  31 /  54  70  10   3
VICKSBURG     42  33  54  36 /  73  66   6   2
HATTIESBURG   48  36  55  34 /  54  51   8   2
NATCHEZ       43  34  55  36 /  68  56   7   2
GREENVILLE    41  32  53  35 /  89  51   6   2
GREENWOOD     41  31  53  34 /  81  65   7   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/DL/26/BB









000
FXUS64 KJAN 230928
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
328 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG DEEP LAYERED
WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CWA. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
AND MODEL DATA IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DEEP LAYERED ASCENT WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY LEAVING BEHIND A RAW...CLOUDY...DRIZZLY DAY FOR THE CWA.
EVEN THOUGH THE AREA IS BEING DRY SLOTTED IN ADVANCE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL COLD CORE...BELIEVE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD
COVER AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. HRRR OUTPUT IS SHOWING THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP CLEAR OUT OVER THE SE TWO THIRDS...BUT
MAINTAINS A NEAR STEADY BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OVER NW SECTIONS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE DEFORMATION ZONE.

AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...DEEP
LAYERED COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR RISING THETA SURFACE AND MORE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR BEFORE ALL THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS CLEEARING OUT DURING THE MORNING SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE MAKE IT INTO THE LOW TO
MID 50S./26/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK...PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...UPSTREAM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A FEW CONTINENTAL COLD AIR SURGES
MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH ANY REAL
CHANCES OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SURGES (AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS) CONFINED WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THE GENERAL PATTERN
SUGGESTS 3 TO 4 DAYS OF EFFICIENT DAYTIME MIXING (AND THEREFORE
WARMING) WITH NIGHTS CAPABLE OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BLENDED
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ZONES) AND DEVIATIONS FROM THE MAIN
BLEND WERE NOT MAJOR. HOWEVER...I DID TEND TO FOLLOW LATEST
OPERATIONAL EURO IDEA OF TIMING OF COOL AIR SURGES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SUBTLY TRENDING GUIDANCE COOLER (OR
WARMER) BASED ON THE UNDETAILED BLEND. ALL IN ALL...THIS SHOULD BE
DECENT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION CONSIDERING THE CALENDAR
DATE.

BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL START MAKING
INROADS TOWARD THE REGION...INCREASING CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE TYPICALLY-SOLID EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL
MODEL STILL IS INSISTENT ON CUTTING OFF A BIG PIECE OF THIS SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE EFFECT OF
CONFINING INCLEMENT WEATHER MOSTLY WEST OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS TENDS TO PHASE THIS
ENERGY WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM...WHICH WOULD ENSURE MUCH MORE
IMPACT IN OUR REGION. THE LATTER CONSENSUS ALSO TENDS TO SUGGESTS
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP COULD COINCIDE WITH A LARGER COLD AIR SURGE INTO
THE SOUTH...AND THAT IS OF COURSE AN INTERESTING PROSPECT. BUT ANY
MEANINGFUL JUXTAPOSITION OF THOSE TWO ELEMENTS WOULD BE BEYOND THE
CURRENT LONG TERM PERIOD SO WE HAVE SOME MORE TIME TO LET MODEL
INCONGRUITIES LESSEN. /BB/


&&

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
CIGS MAY RISE TO MVFR AFTER 00Z IN THE GLH/GWO AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       43  34  53  34 /  55  73   8   2
MERIDIAN      46  35  52  31 /  78  70  10   3
VICKSBURG     42  33  54  36 /  75  66   6   2
HATTIESBURG   48  36  55  34 /  63  51   8   2
NATCHEZ       43  34  55  36 /  69  56   7   2
GREENVILLE    42  32  53  35 /  94  51   6   2
GREENWOOD     41  31  53  34 /  82  65   7   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KJAN 230928
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
328 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG DEEP LAYERED
WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CWA. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
AND MODEL DATA IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DEEP LAYERED ASCENT WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY LEAVING BEHIND A RAW...CLOUDY...DRIZZLY DAY FOR THE CWA.
EVEN THOUGH THE AREA IS BEING DRY SLOTTED IN ADVANCE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL COLD CORE...BELIEVE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD
COVER AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. HRRR OUTPUT IS SHOWING THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP CLEAR OUT OVER THE SE TWO THIRDS...BUT
MAINTAINS A NEAR STEADY BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OVER NW SECTIONS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE DEFORMATION ZONE.

AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...DEEP
LAYERED COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR RISING THETA SURFACE AND MORE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR BEFORE ALL THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS CLEEARING OUT DURING THE MORNING SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE MAKE IT INTO THE LOW TO
MID 50S./26/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK...PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...UPSTREAM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A FEW CONTINENTAL COLD AIR SURGES
MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH ANY REAL
CHANCES OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SURGES (AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS) CONFINED WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THE GENERAL PATTERN
SUGGESTS 3 TO 4 DAYS OF EFFICIENT DAYTIME MIXING (AND THEREFORE
WARMING) WITH NIGHTS CAPABLE OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. BLENDED
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ZONES) AND DEVIATIONS FROM THE MAIN
BLEND WERE NOT MAJOR. HOWEVER...I DID TEND TO FOLLOW LATEST
OPERATIONAL EURO IDEA OF TIMING OF COOL AIR SURGES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SUBTLY TRENDING GUIDANCE COOLER (OR
WARMER) BASED ON THE UNDETAILED BLEND. ALL IN ALL...THIS SHOULD BE
DECENT PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE REGION CONSIDERING THE CALENDAR
DATE.

BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL START MAKING
INROADS TOWARD THE REGION...INCREASING CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE TYPICALLY-SOLID EUROPEAN OPERATIONAL
MODEL STILL IS INSISTENT ON CUTTING OFF A BIG PIECE OF THIS SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE EFFECT OF
CONFINING INCLEMENT WEATHER MOSTLY WEST OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS TENDS TO PHASE THIS
ENERGY WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM...WHICH WOULD ENSURE MUCH MORE
IMPACT IN OUR REGION. THE LATTER CONSENSUS ALSO TENDS TO SUGGESTS
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP COULD COINCIDE WITH A LARGER COLD AIR SURGE INTO
THE SOUTH...AND THAT IS OF COURSE AN INTERESTING PROSPECT. BUT ANY
MEANINGFUL JUXTAPOSITION OF THOSE TWO ELEMENTS WOULD BE BEYOND THE
CURRENT LONG TERM PERIOD SO WE HAVE SOME MORE TIME TO LET MODEL
INCONGRUITIES LESSEN. /BB/


&&

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.
CIGS MAY RISE TO MVFR AFTER 00Z IN THE GLH/GWO AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       43  34  53  34 /  55  73   8   2
MERIDIAN      46  35  52  31 /  78  70  10   3
VICKSBURG     42  33  54  36 /  75  66   6   2
HATTIESBURG   48  36  55  34 /  63  51   8   2
NATCHEZ       43  34  55  36 /  69  56   7   2
GREENVILLE    42  32  53  35 /  94  51   6   2
GREENWOOD     41  31  53  34 /  82  65   7   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 230315 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
915 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING SFC/UPPER AIR ANALYSES INDICATES 1011MB SFC LOW/WARM FRONT
IN THE NRN GULF WHILE STRENGTHENING LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT/STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LIFT
OVER THE REGION. GFS/EURO INDICATE THE BEST 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/UPPER DIFFLUENCE LOOKS TO RESIDE IN SRN MS/LA THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY THEN TO SHIFT TO THE NE. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINS TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE E AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS TO THE NE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HRRR/GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
E/NE AND AFTER 09Z...THE BACK EDGE THE MOST EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL
HAVE MOVED INTO AL. THUS...ADJUSTED POPS DOWN ALONG/W OF I-55 BETWEEN
09-12Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE AFTER 12Z DUE TO STRONG UPPER
LIFT/DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE 850MB/SFC LOW TO OUR SE.
POPS WILL REMAIN THE SAME AFTER 12Z BUT MAINLY BE LIGHT. THE REGION
WILL REMAIN UNDER NE FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING
MORE NRLY AND TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ONLY RAIN IN THE
REGION. LOWS LOOK GOOD AND ONLY TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO
CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH WITH A MIXED BAG OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MORE OF MVFR AND IFR AS WE GO
BEYOND 06-09Z WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED FOR A LARGE PART
OF FRI. THE RAIN WILL BECOME GENERALLY LIGHTER AND MORE OF A DRIZZLE
TYPE OF EVENT AFTER 09-12Z. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS PUSHING TOWARD
THE REGION. IN RESPONSE AREA RADARS WHERE PICKING UP LIGHT
RAIN...WHICH WAS FINALLY BEGINNING TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO THE
MOISTENING OF DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THERE HAS BEEN A FEW REPORTS
OF LIGHT SLEET IN THE NORTHWEST DELTA TODAY AS THE DRYER AIR WAS
DECREASING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS THE RAINS OVERSPREADING THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH LIGHT RAIN PRESENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE LIGHT RAIN GOING UNTIL
03Z THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO MODERATE RAIN DUE TO STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE STORM SYSTEM. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE PICKING
UP SOME THIN ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SOME -1 SHOWALTER INDEXES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO FOUND SOME CROSS SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY IN THE
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH. SO WILL PUT IN SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER TO GO WITH THE RAINS IN THE SOUTH. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL TEMPS
IN THE DELTA WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
DURING THE NIGHT SHOW THAT IT WILL STAY ALL RAIN. MEANWHILE THE
STORM SYSTEM SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ALONG THE
GULF COAST THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST AROUND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FOR
FRIDAY THE BEST LIFT WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST AS THE RAINS BECOME
LIGHT ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS TO MAINTAIN OUR LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW MIXTURE ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO LIGHT PRECIP...WARM GROUND TEMPS AND SHORT COLD
PERIOD OF PRECIP. THE RAINS WILL END FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. NOT EXPECTING ANY FLASH
FLOOD ISSUES WITH DECENT 1 TO 3 RFC HOURLY RAIN FFG.  EXPECT THE
RAINS TO DEPART FROM THE REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE PLAINS ON
SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DAILY HIGHS WILL TRANSITION FROM
THE 40S AND 50S ON FRIDAY TO THE 50S ON SATURDAY. NIGHTLY LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 30S./17/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES BUILD AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
WITH UPPER RIDGING WEST TO UPPER TROUGHING EAST. THE PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A NEAR FLAT RIDGE PATTERN AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A RATHER QUIET PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
LOOKS TO BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM THE EURO AND GFS MODELS./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       41  45  34  53 / 100  72  49   8
MERIDIAN      42  49  36  53 / 100  74  57  10
VICKSBURG     40  43  33  54 / 100  77  37   6
HATTIESBURG   45  51  37  55 / 100  61  40   8
NATCHEZ       41  44  34  55 / 100  66  34   7
GREENVILLE    38  41  32  53 /  89  87  33   6
GREENWOOD     39  42  32  52 /  89  89  53   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/CME/17






000
FXUS64 KJAN 230315 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
915 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING SFC/UPPER AIR ANALYSES INDICATES 1011MB SFC LOW/WARM FRONT
IN THE NRN GULF WHILE STRENGTHENING LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT/STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LIFT
OVER THE REGION. GFS/EURO INDICATE THE BEST 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/UPPER DIFFLUENCE LOOKS TO RESIDE IN SRN MS/LA THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY THEN TO SHIFT TO THE NE. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINS TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE E AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS TO THE NE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HRRR/GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
E/NE AND AFTER 09Z...THE BACK EDGE THE MOST EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL
HAVE MOVED INTO AL. THUS...ADJUSTED POPS DOWN ALONG/W OF I-55 BETWEEN
09-12Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE AFTER 12Z DUE TO STRONG UPPER
LIFT/DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE 850MB/SFC LOW TO OUR SE.
POPS WILL REMAIN THE SAME AFTER 12Z BUT MAINLY BE LIGHT. THE REGION
WILL REMAIN UNDER NE FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING
MORE NRLY AND TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ONLY RAIN IN THE
REGION. LOWS LOOK GOOD AND ONLY TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO
CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH WITH A MIXED BAG OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MORE OF MVFR AND IFR AS WE GO
BEYOND 06-09Z WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED FOR A LARGE PART
OF FRI. THE RAIN WILL BECOME GENERALLY LIGHTER AND MORE OF A DRIZZLE
TYPE OF EVENT AFTER 09-12Z. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS PUSHING TOWARD
THE REGION. IN RESPONSE AREA RADARS WHERE PICKING UP LIGHT
RAIN...WHICH WAS FINALLY BEGINNING TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO THE
MOISTENING OF DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THERE HAS BEEN A FEW REPORTS
OF LIGHT SLEET IN THE NORTHWEST DELTA TODAY AS THE DRYER AIR WAS
DECREASING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS THE RAINS OVERSPREADING THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH LIGHT RAIN PRESENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE LIGHT RAIN GOING UNTIL
03Z THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO MODERATE RAIN DUE TO STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE STORM SYSTEM. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE PICKING
UP SOME THIN ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SOME -1 SHOWALTER INDEXES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO FOUND SOME CROSS SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY IN THE
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH. SO WILL PUT IN SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER TO GO WITH THE RAINS IN THE SOUTH. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL TEMPS
IN THE DELTA WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
DURING THE NIGHT SHOW THAT IT WILL STAY ALL RAIN. MEANWHILE THE
STORM SYSTEM SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ALONG THE
GULF COAST THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST AROUND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FOR
FRIDAY THE BEST LIFT WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST AS THE RAINS BECOME
LIGHT ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS TO MAINTAIN OUR LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW MIXTURE ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO LIGHT PRECIP...WARM GROUND TEMPS AND SHORT COLD
PERIOD OF PRECIP. THE RAINS WILL END FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. NOT EXPECTING ANY FLASH
FLOOD ISSUES WITH DECENT 1 TO 3 RFC HOURLY RAIN FFG.  EXPECT THE
RAINS TO DEPART FROM THE REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE PLAINS ON
SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DAILY HIGHS WILL TRANSITION FROM
THE 40S AND 50S ON FRIDAY TO THE 50S ON SATURDAY. NIGHTLY LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 30S./17/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES BUILD AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
WITH UPPER RIDGING WEST TO UPPER TROUGHING EAST. THE PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A NEAR FLAT RIDGE PATTERN AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A RATHER QUIET PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
LOOKS TO BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM THE EURO AND GFS MODELS./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       41  45  34  53 / 100  72  49   8
MERIDIAN      42  49  36  53 / 100  74  57  10
VICKSBURG     40  43  33  54 / 100  77  37   6
HATTIESBURG   45  51  37  55 / 100  61  40   8
NATCHEZ       41  44  34  55 / 100  66  34   7
GREENVILLE    38  41  32  53 /  89  87  33   6
GREENWOOD     39  42  32  52 /  89  89  53   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/CME/17







000
FXUS64 KJAN 222117
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS PUSHING TOWARD
THE REGION. IN RESPONSE AREA RADARS WHERE PICKING UP LIGHT
RAIN...WHICH WAS FINALLY BEGINNING TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO THE
MOISTENING OF DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THERE HAS BEEN A FEW REPORTS
OF LIGHT SLEET IN THE NORTHWEST DELTA TODAY AS THE DRYER AIR WAS
DECREASING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS THE RAINS OVERSPREADING THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH LIGHT RAIN PRESENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE LIGHT RAIN GOING UNTIL
03Z THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO MODERATE RAIN DUE TO STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE STORM SYSTEM. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE PICKING
UP SOME THIN ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SOME -1 SHOWALTER INDEXES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO FOUND SOME CROSS SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY IN THE
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH. SO WILL PUT IN SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER TO GO WITH THE RAINS IN THE SOUTH. THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL TEMPS
IN THE DELTA WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
DURING THE NIGHT SHOW THAT IT WILL STAY ALL RAIN. MEANWHILE THE
STORM SYSTEM SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ALONG THE
GULF COAST THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST AROUND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FOR
FRIDAY THE BEST LIFT WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST AS THE RAINS BECOME
LIGHT ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS TO MAINTAIN OUR LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW MIXTURE ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED DUE TO LIGHT PRECIP...WARM GROUND TEMPS AND SHORT COLD
PERIOD OF PRECIP. THE RAINS WILL END FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. NOT EXPECTING ANY FLASH
FLOOD ISSUES WITH DECENT 1 TO 3 RFC HOURLY RAIN FFG.  EXPECT THE
RAINS TO DEPART FROM THE REGION BY 12Z SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE PLAINS ON
SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DAILY HIGHS WILL TRANSITION FROM
THE 40S AND 50S ON FRIDAY TO THE 50S ON SATURDAY. NIGHTLY LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 30S./17/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES BUILD AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
WITH UPPER RIDGING WEST TO UPPER TROUGHING EAST. THE PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A NEAR FLAT RIDGE PATTERN AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A RATHER QUIET PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
LOOKS TO BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM THE EURO AND GFS MODELS./17/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE CLOUD DECK WILL BE LOWERING AND SOME
TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. AFTER
SUNSET AREAS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE
AND CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TO MVFR...AND IFR FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. VISBYS MAY ALSO DROP
TO MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER
RAIN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       41  45  34  53 / 100  72  49   8
MERIDIAN      43  49  36  53 / 100  74  57  10
VICKSBURG     40  43  33  54 / 100  77  37   6
HATTIESBURG   45  51  37  55 / 100  61  40   8
NATCHEZ       40  44  34  55 / 100  66  34   7
GREENVILLE    38  41  32  53 /  89  87  33   6
GREENWOOD     39  42  32  52 /  89  89  53   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$
















000
FXUS64 KJAN 221844 AAB
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1244 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.UPDATE...ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WAS STILL PRETTY DRY FOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN RATHER LIGHT...EVEN TO THE
WEST OVER THE ARKLATEX WITH AMOUNTS OF .05 TO JUST OVER .25 PER HOUR.
SO WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE REDUCED POPS AND PUT IN LIGHT RAIN IN THE GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK AS WINDS
HAVE PICKED UP WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 25 MPH FROM THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AROUND THE STORM SYSTEM SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST
GULF./17/

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...330 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING
SOME LIGHT RETURNS STREAMING IN OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH IF ANY HAS ACTUALLY MADE IT
TO THE GROUND AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME.

SYSTEM IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE WHEN LOOKING AT THE WV
IMAGERY WITH MOIST PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA IN INCREASING SW
FLOW. SOURCE REGION FOR THE PLUME LOOKS TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF
THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC WHERE BLENDED TOTAL PW VALUES OF AROUND 1.5
INCHES (>200 % OF NORMAL) STAND POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT TIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL LEAD
TO IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC SURFACE SLOPES AND STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. HEAVIEST/STEADIEST
RAINS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF WHERE BEST
FORCING WILL OCCUR IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW. FRIDAY IS
LOOKING LIKE A RAW DAY ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE WILL SQUEEZE EVERY
POSSIBLE DROP IT CAN FROM THE ATMOSPHERE AS THE COLUMN COOLS. ENOUGH
COOLING LOOKS TO OCCUR ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR BY FRIDAY
EVENING TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE THE
EVENT ENDS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANCE OF ACCUMULATION DUE TO
LIGHTNESS AND SHORT DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WARMTH./26/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...CONDITIONS
ARE LOOKING RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL OVER THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
BEING THE MAIN FORECAST STRUGGLE. SYNOPTICALLY...MOST OF THE PERIOD
IN THE ATMOSPHERIC UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPORARY AMPLIFICATION AS A RIDGE CENTER
EXPANDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD POSITION OUR LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION AT THE INTERFACE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRYING
TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS AND A CHILLIER REGIME CENTERED
ALONG THE EAST COAST.

THE LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL RUN WAS TRENDING MOST AGGRESSIVE OF
AVAILABLE MODELS IN KEEPING PLAINS WARMTH AT BAY BY CONTINENTAL COLD
AIR SURGES MANIFESTED BY EAST COAST TROUGHINESS. FOR THIS REASON
BLENDED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS MANUALLY TRENDED LOWER IN MANY
INSTANCES ACROSS AT LEAST EAST MS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THESE
LATTER AREAS TEMPERATURE CLOSER TO AVERAGE MAY VERIFY ALTHOUGH
FURTHER WEST IN THE CWA CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT TEMPERATURES OF
SOMEWHAT ABOVE AVERAGE CALIBER WILL PREVAIL.

BY LATE NEXT WORK WEEK CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A REACTIVATING
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL BREAK DOWN THE TEMPORARILY
DRY PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT THIS REALLY SHOULD BE BEYOND THE
OFFICIAL LONG TERM PERIOD. /BB/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...THOUGH MID CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
PREVALENT THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER SUNSET AREAS OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE AND CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE TO MVFR...FALLING INTO IFR RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. VISBYS MAY ALSO DROP TO MVFR
RANGE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       51  41  43  34 / 42 100  83  47
MERIDIAN      54  42  49  35 / 42 100  81  69
VICKSBURG     52  40  43  33 / 57 100  86  42
HATTIESBURG   54  44  51  37 / 41 100  57  51
NATCHEZ       55  41  43  35 / 55 100  72  45
GREENVILLE    47  38  40  32 / 72  89 100  34
GREENWOOD     50  39  41  32 / 68  89 100  47

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$














000
FXUS64 KJAN 221844 AAB
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1244 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.UPDATE...ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WAS STILL PRETTY DRY FOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN RATHER LIGHT...EVEN TO THE
WEST OVER THE ARKLATEX WITH AMOUNTS OF .05 TO JUST OVER .25 PER HOUR.
SO WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE REDUCED POPS AND PUT IN LIGHT RAIN IN THE GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK AS WINDS
HAVE PICKED UP WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 25 MPH FROM THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AROUND THE STORM SYSTEM SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST
GULF./17/

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...330 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING
SOME LIGHT RETURNS STREAMING IN OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH IF ANY HAS ACTUALLY MADE IT
TO THE GROUND AS THERE IS A LOT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME.

SYSTEM IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE WHEN LOOKING AT THE WV
IMAGERY WITH MOIST PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA IN INCREASING SW
FLOW. SOURCE REGION FOR THE PLUME LOOKS TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF
THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC WHERE BLENDED TOTAL PW VALUES OF AROUND 1.5
INCHES (>200 % OF NORMAL) STAND POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT TIGHT LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL LEAD
TO IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC SURFACE SLOPES AND STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. HEAVIEST/STEADIEST
RAINS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF WHERE BEST
FORCING WILL OCCUR IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW. FRIDAY IS
LOOKING LIKE A RAW DAY ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE WILL SQUEEZE EVERY
POSSIBLE DROP IT CAN FROM THE ATMOSPHERE AS THE COLUMN COOLS. ENOUGH
COOLING LOOKS TO OCCUR ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR BY FRIDAY
EVENING TO ALLOW SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE THE
EVENT ENDS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANCE OF ACCUMULATION DUE TO
LIGHTNESS AND SHORT DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AND SURFACE WARMTH./26/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...CONDITIONS
ARE LOOKING RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL OVER THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
BEING THE MAIN FORECAST STRUGGLE. SYNOPTICALLY...MOST OF THE PERIOD
IN THE ATMOSPHERIC UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPORARY AMPLIFICATION AS A RIDGE CENTER
EXPANDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD POSITION OUR LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION AT THE INTERFACE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TRYING
TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS AND A CHILLIER REGIME CENTERED
ALONG THE EAST COAST.

THE LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL RUN WAS TRENDING MOST AGGRESSIVE OF
AVAILABLE MODELS IN KEEPING PLAINS WARMTH AT BAY BY CONTINENTAL COLD
AIR SURGES MANIFESTED BY EAST COAST TROUGHINESS. FOR THIS REASON
BLENDED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS MANUALLY TRENDED LOWER IN MANY
INSTANCES ACROSS AT LEAST EAST MS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN THESE
LATTER AREAS TEMPERATURE CLOSER TO AVERAGE MAY VERIFY ALTHOUGH
FURTHER WEST IN THE CWA CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT TEMPERATURES OF
SOMEWHAT ABOVE AVERAGE CALIBER WILL PREVAIL.

BY LATE NEXT WORK WEEK CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A REACTIVATING
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL BREAK DOWN THE TEMPORARILY
DRY PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT THIS REALLY SHOULD BE BEYOND THE
OFFICIAL LONG TERM PERIOD. /BB/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY...THOUGH MID CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
PREVALENT THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER SUNSET AREAS OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE AND CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE TO MVFR...FALLING INTO IFR RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. VISBYS MAY ALSO DROP TO MVFR
RANGE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       51  41  43  34 / 42 100  83  47
MERIDIAN      54  42  49  35 / 42 100  81  69
VICKSBURG     52  40  43  33 / 57 100  86  42
HATTIESBURG   54  44  51  37 / 41 100  57  51
NATCHEZ       55  41  43  35 / 55 100  72  45
GREENVILLE    47  38  40  32 / 72  89 100  34
GREENWOOD     50  39  41  32 / 68  89 100  47

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$















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