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000
FXUS64 KJAN 260838
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
338 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...Prominent ridge axis
which has been sheltering the area from convection to the west was
finally compromised yesterday afternoon and evening.  While ridge
looks to still be in place, it has been flattened considerably with
more westerly wind components blowing through at the moment. While
some reorganization of the ridge is likely today, a convective
repeat is also likely over the western sections by afternoon with
eastern areas remaining dry.

As the main core of the mid level storm system in the Rockies
finally moves out into the Plains this afternoon and evening,
disturbed southwesterly flow regime will have an increasing impact
over mainly northwest portions in the form of a better convective
coverage and severe potential.  GFS is showing decent lapse rates
for this time of year with near 30 vertical totals in the ArkLaMiss
Delta region this afternoon and evening.  Combine that with maximum
temperatures near 90 and deep layered shear of 20-25 knots, and some
of those storms could become robust with wind being the main threat.
Will outlook a limited threat of severe storms over the far
northwest this afternoon and evening in close proximity to SPCs
current marginal risk./26/

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday night...The overall pattern
will change very little on Saturday, with the best chances for
diurnal thunderstorm activity over the western portions of the area.
High temps will climb into the upper 80s for most of the area.
Upper ridging will strengthen over the area on Sunday with afternoon
highs climbing to around 90 with isolated afternoon/evening
thunderstorms possible.  Little will change Monday through Wednesday
with highs climbing to around 90 and isolated afternoon
thunderstorms possible each day.  The global models due indicate the
possibility of a pattern change later in the week, with better
chances of rain across the area. /15/


&&

.AVIATION...Low clouds and fog will support MVFR conditions through
the morning with ceilings rising to vfr by 26/18Z. VCTS can be
expected after 26/18Z at GLH/GWO/JAN and HKS. The convection should
wind down by 27/03Z. /26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       87  70  84  68 /  16  18  17  16
Meridian      88  66  86  65 /   8   9  11  11
Vicksburg     86  72  83  68 /  25  28  27  25
Hattiesburg   89  68  86  66 /   7  10   7   9
Natchez       86  72  84  69 /  26  27  27  23
Greenville    88  71  83  69 /  31  37  37  32
Greenwood     88  70  84  68 /  22  27  25  27

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 250841
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
341 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...The forecast area will
remain positioned along the western periphery of a surface high
wedged into the region from the east and ridging aloft throughout
the forecast period.  This will continue to basically equate to warm
and increasingly humid conditions as persistent southerly flow
continues to subtly increase moisture across the region.  Highs both
today and Thursday will range from the middle 80s to around 90. Lows
tonight will range from the middle 60s to middle 70s, and from the
middle 60s to lower 70s Thursday night.

The aforementioned surface high and mid/upper level ridge will work
together to try and keep rain chances scarce across the majority of
the CWA. Still, just as we observed Tuesday night, ongoing complexes
of convection moving east from the Southern Plains towards the Mid
South region could spawn an outflow boundary that brings some showers
and storms to the Delta region later today.  Then Thursday into
Thursday night, a stronger disturbance is progged to lift northeast
while brushing the western half of the CWA.  This looks to
spark some scattered showers and storms across western portions of
the forecast area, primarily in locales along and west of the
Interstate 55 corridor. /19/

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Mid level southwest flow
regime, albeit weak, will be in place over the region at the
beginning of the period and looks to become weaker with time
according to a consensus of the models as central Plains wave ejects
out into the upper MS river valley.  Meanwhile, at the surface, flow
looks to remain weak southerly for the most part as dewpoints remain
in the 60s and lower 70s.  An increasingly summerish feel as
maximums continue to push 90.

Diurnal airmass convection looks like a good bet each day, but warm
air in the lower levels should play an inhibiting role for much of
each day leaving development possibilities for mid to late
afternoon, nearest time of maximum heating.  Coverage looks best in
the west in better CAPEs and surface dewpoints./26/


&&

.AVIATION...Some patchy low stratus is possible first thing this
morning, perhaps briefly reducing flight categories to MVFR status.
Low stratus will dissipate by mid-morning, with VFR flight
categories currently forecast to prevail at TAF sites over the area
this afternoon and evening. Winds today will be southerly between 5-10
knots. These will subside a bit this evening, remaining southerly
from 3-8 knots overnight. /19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  69  88  69 /   8   4  13  18
Meridian      89  63  89  67 /   4   2   8   9
Vicksburg     87  71  87  71 /  12   7  20  27
Hattiesburg   89  67  90  68 /   4   2   8   8
Natchez       88  71  86  71 /  11   6  18  23
Greenville    88  71  87  71 /  20   9  23  41
Greenwood     88  70  87  70 /  16   8  19  30

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 242047
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
347 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...
Latest satellite imagery showed mid-upper ridging over the
Lower Mississippi Valley. Surface high pressure was centered east of
the region giving the cwa weak return flow. Mid afternoon temps
were on track with readings in the upper 80s to 90.

Mean high pressure will be prevalent through the short term for
generally quiet conditions. Low level mean moisture will gradually
increase through the period as pwats will range from 1.10 inches to
1.5 inches by thursday night. Dewpoints will gradually build into
the lower to upper 60s by Thursday afternoon.  Such humid conditions
will send daily afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90 each
day. Nightly lows will start from the lower 60s east to around 70
west for tonight before building into the upper 60s to lower 70s by
Thursday night.

As far as rain chances our concern expect dry conditions for
tonight. For Wednesday guidance pops tries to bring some low chances
across the west. Believe that with the capping mean ridge chances of
rain in the west will be quite low. So have maintain dry pops for
now going into Wednesday night. For Thursday there will be enough
moisture transport and instability for some low end convective
chances across the west.

LONGTERM...Friday through Monday...At the beginning of the period,
mid level ridge, which will have been somewhat persistent by this
time, is showing signs of buckling as flow has increased overtop and
system moves into the Rockies. Nevertheless, dry/warm air remains
entrenched over eastern areas in the lower levels as flow remains
weak southerly. These conditions look to remain in place on Friday
with isolated to scattered convection remaining confined to the
northwest half of the forecast area.

By Saturday, ridge axis will have pushed far enough east for a
broader southwest flow regime to setup over the area. The 12z models
of the GFS/Euro seem to have focused on a short wave extending from
a closed low over the central plains on friday night into Saturday.
The axis will mainly affect the northwest half until Saturday night.
This could allow a possible mcs to possibly touch our northwest
counties. Too early to say at this time...since the Canadian is not
focused on it. Either way should get some decent diurnal pops in the
northwestern counties. As we push into Sunday and Monday mean
ridging will build back over the region from the southwest...which
will lower our diurnal rain chances./17/26/

&&

.AVIATION...Skies remain mostly clear across the region this
afternoon and mainly VFR flight categories will prevail at all TAF
sites over the area through Wednesday morning. Winds this afternoon
will continue to be south to southeasterly between 5-8 knots. These
winds will subside to light to calm this evening and overnight.
There will be slightly better chance of at least a few MVFR cats
popping up around the region around daybreak tomorrow, especially
across southern Mississippi. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       66  88  68  88 /   3   8   6  14
Meridian      62  88  64  88 /   3   5   2   9
Vicksburg     69  89  71  88 /   5  13   7  21
Hattiesburg   64  89  66  89 /   3   4   3  10
Natchez       69  88  71  86 /   5  13  10  22
Greenville    70  89  72  87 /   8  13   8  23
Greenwood     67  88  70  88 /   6  10   7  19

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

17/BB/26





000
FXUS64 KJAN 241504
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1004 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2014

.Update...Latest satellite imagery showed mid-upper ridging over the
Lower Mississippi Valley. Surface high pressure was centered east of
the region giving the cwa weak return flow. Hi-Res models shows that
a few convective airmass showers may approach our northwest and west
border for this afternoon. So increased dry pops to just below 15
percent in the northwest and west. Used the 12z conshort model to
make slight adjustments to hourly and max temps for this afternoon.
Hourly temps are running about 2 to 3 degrees warmer this morning
compared to Monday morning. So highs in the upper 80s to a few
locations touching 90 looks to be on track with the relatively dry
soils across the region,good insulation,and light south winds./17/


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...357 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday night...High pressure at
the surface and ridging aloft will maintain quiet conditions across
the region through at least mid-week.  Low-level moisture will
subtly increase across the region during this time...resulting in
continued warm and increasingly humid conditions each day.  As high
clouds continue to stream west to east across the region...highs
both this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon will peak in the upper
80s. Then tonight and Wednesday night...lows will range from the
lower 60s to around 70.

Rain chances will also remain at a minimum during this time. Models
do hint at a couple of weak impulses trying to bring some convection
into the region from the northwest. However...due to strengthening
of both the ridge and surface high...the majority of models are in
agreement with dissipating this convection before it reaches the far
western portions of the forecast area. Therefore...I`ll maintain an
overall dry forecast through the short term portion of the forecast
period. /19/

Thursday through Monday...At the beginning of the period, mid level
ridge, which will have been somewhat persistent by this time, is
showing signs of buckling as flow has increased overtop and system
moves into the Rockies. Nevertheless, dry/warm air remains entrenched
over eastern areas in the lower levels as flow remains weak
southerly. These conditions look to remain in place at least through
Friday with isolated to scattered convection remaining confined to
the northwest half of the forecast area.

By Saturday, ridge axis will have pushed far enough east for a
broader southwest flow regime to setup over the area. This combined
with better low level moisture will mean a better coverage of
diurnal convection being possible. Varying solutions begin creeping
into the Sunday and Monday timeframe. ECMWF/Canadian want to
maintain weak southwest flow over the area as the system moves out
of the Rockies into the northern Plains while the GFS wants to
reestablish the mid level ridge. Diurnal convection still looks to
be the case regardless of which one verifies given surface dewpoints
in the 60s and lower 70s. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...High clouds will continue to traverse from west to east
across the region through much of the forecast period. Still...VFR
flight categories will prevail at all TAF sites over the area
through Wednesday morning.  Winds today will be southerly between 5-
8 knots. These winds will subside to light to calm this evening and
overnight. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  65  88  68 /   3   3   6   6
Meridian      88  60  88  63 /   3   3   3   2
Vicksburg     89  67  89  69 /   7   5  11   7
Hattiesburg   88  62  89  66 /   3   3   2   3
Natchez       88  69  87  70 /   7   5  13  10
Greenville    89  69  89  70 /  11   8  11   8
Greenwood     89  66  88  69 /   5   6   8   7

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

17/BB/19/26





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