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000
FXUS64 KJAN 300934
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
434 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR CWA WILL BRING A FEW
SHORTWAVES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AT TIMES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HELPING SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS JUST NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 82 FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SECOND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE NOTED DROPPING SOUTH OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SWING ACROSS OUR CWA LATER TODAY DURING MAX HEATING AND HELP SUPPORT
A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND TO
THE RED RIVER. A SURFACE RIDGE WAS ALSO NOTED NOSING WEST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THE WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK UP
AROUND 1.75 INCHES WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S TO FUEL
A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY. THE EARLIER START TO CONVECTION
MAY HINDER STRONGER DESTABILIZATION ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH BUT THE
LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND VERTICAL TOTALS OF 27-28. A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
QUARTER SIZED HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THIS THREAT WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT. HEIGHTS WL BE HIGHER
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
EXPECTED LIMIT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY BUT A MOIST AIRMASS WILL STILL
RESIDE OVER OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AND WL STILL HAVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER OUR REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION BUT NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. PARAMETERS LOOK
LESS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS WEDNESDAY AND GREATEST POPS WL BE
CARRIED OVER OUR NORTHEAST. /22/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THURSDAY WE WILL HAVE AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE
CWA. THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL MODIFY SOME AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. OUR HEIGHTS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SPREADS EAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BECOME
ORIENTED MORE ALONG THE GULF COAST. TOGETHER THESE RIDGES WILL RESULT
IN MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. THERE REMAINS SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORTWAVES IN THE MODELS WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE MEAN TROUGH OF THE EASTERN US. THESE SHORTWAVES LOOKS TO
HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND
WETTEST OVER THE CWA. MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA AND REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IS EXPECTED
OVER OUR NORTH. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OVER OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
MOSTLY DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR CWA ALONG WITH GENERALLY NORMAL
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS./17/

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS GETTING AN EARLY START TODAY AND TSTMS WL
CONT TO AFFECT THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. TSTM COVERAGE WL
SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
AWAY FROM TSTMS VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. CONVECTION WL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BE FOCUSED MORE OVER THE NE WEDNESDAY. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       87  72  90  74 /  59  25  19  25
MERIDIAN      87  71  90  73 /  65  29  21  37
VICKSBURG     88  72  91  74 /  57  22  21  21
HATTIESBURG   88  72  91  73 /  56  24  32  22
NATCHEZ       89  73  90  74 /  52  21  25  21
GREENVILLE    88  73  92  75 /  50  26  24  43
GREENWOOD     87  72  90  74 /  63  29  26  48

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/17/22




000
FXUS64 KJAN 300934
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
434 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR CWA WILL BRING A FEW
SHORTWAVES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AT TIMES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HELPING SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS JUST NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 82 FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SECOND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE NOTED DROPPING SOUTH OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SWING ACROSS OUR CWA LATER TODAY DURING MAX HEATING AND HELP SUPPORT
A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND TO
THE RED RIVER. A SURFACE RIDGE WAS ALSO NOTED NOSING WEST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THE WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK UP
AROUND 1.75 INCHES WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S TO FUEL
A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY. THE EARLIER START TO CONVECTION
MAY HINDER STRONGER DESTABILIZATION ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH BUT THE
LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND VERTICAL TOTALS OF 27-28. A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
QUARTER SIZED HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THIS THREAT WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT. HEIGHTS WL BE HIGHER
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
EXPECTED LIMIT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY BUT A MOIST AIRMASS WILL STILL
RESIDE OVER OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AND WL STILL HAVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER OUR REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION BUT NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. PARAMETERS LOOK
LESS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS WEDNESDAY AND GREATEST POPS WL BE
CARRIED OVER OUR NORTHEAST. /22/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THURSDAY WE WILL HAVE AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE
CWA. THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL MODIFY SOME AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. OUR HEIGHTS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SPREADS EAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BECOME
ORIENTED MORE ALONG THE GULF COAST. TOGETHER THESE RIDGES WILL RESULT
IN MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. THERE REMAINS SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORTWAVES IN THE MODELS WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE MEAN TROUGH OF THE EASTERN US. THESE SHORTWAVES LOOKS TO
HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND
WETTEST OVER THE CWA. MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA AND REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IS EXPECTED
OVER OUR NORTH. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OVER OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
MOSTLY DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR CWA ALONG WITH GENERALLY NORMAL
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS./17/

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS GETTING AN EARLY START TODAY AND TSTMS WL
CONT TO AFFECT THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. TSTM COVERAGE WL
SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
AWAY FROM TSTMS VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. CONVECTION WL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BE FOCUSED MORE OVER THE NE WEDNESDAY. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       87  72  90  74 /  59  25  19  25
MERIDIAN      87  71  90  73 /  65  29  21  37
VICKSBURG     88  72  91  74 /  57  22  21  21
HATTIESBURG   88  72  91  73 /  56  24  32  22
NATCHEZ       89  73  90  74 /  52  21  25  21
GREENVILLE    88  73  92  75 /  50  26  24  43
GREENWOOD     87  72  90  74 /  63  29  26  48

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/17/22





000
FXUS64 KJAN 300253
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
953 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
REMOVED RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE EVENING BUT WENT WITH
SCATTERED IN THE AREAS WHERE RAIN CONTINUES. THE UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE MID SOUTH WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO TEXAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BLOW UP ALONG THE AXIS AROUND
THE AREA...WITH VERY LITTLE EXTENDING INTO THE CWA AT THIS POINT.
MODELS SHOW SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS
AS IS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON WAS SINKING SOUTH
AND WEAKENING. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST. TWEAKED THE HOURLY VALUES...OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST WAS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST SITES ARE ENJOYING VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WHILE
SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST MS/LA. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY(FOR KGLH/KGWO/KGTR) AND INTO TUESDAY FOR ALL AREAS. THESE
STORMS COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT BUT IN ANY LOCATION THAT CAN REMAIN CLEAR...MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. /28/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  88  73  91 /  26  59  22  37
MERIDIAN      73  89  71  90 /  20  59  29  44
VICKSBURG     74  89  73  91 /  30  57  15  32
HATTIESBURG   74  90  73  91 /  24  54  24  47
NATCHEZ       74  89  73  90 /  31  52  15  37
GREENVILLE    74  90  73  91 /  39  50  23  28
GREENWOOD     73  88  72  88 /  35  54  26  36

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7/28





000
FXUS64 KJAN 300253
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
953 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
REMOVED RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE EVENING BUT WENT WITH
SCATTERED IN THE AREAS WHERE RAIN CONTINUES. THE UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE MID SOUTH WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO TEXAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BLOW UP ALONG THE AXIS AROUND
THE AREA...WITH VERY LITTLE EXTENDING INTO THE CWA AT THIS POINT.
MODELS SHOW SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS
AS IS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON WAS SINKING SOUTH
AND WEAKENING. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST. TWEAKED THE HOURLY VALUES...OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST WAS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST SITES ARE ENJOYING VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WHILE
SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST MS/LA. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY(FOR KGLH/KGWO/KGTR) AND INTO TUESDAY FOR ALL AREAS. THESE
STORMS COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT BUT IN ANY LOCATION THAT CAN REMAIN CLEAR...MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. /28/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  88  73  91 /  26  59  22  37
MERIDIAN      73  89  71  90 /  20  59  29  44
VICKSBURG     74  89  73  91 /  30  57  15  32
HATTIESBURG   74  90  73  91 /  24  54  24  47
NATCHEZ       74  89  73  90 /  31  52  15  37
GREENVILLE    74  90  73  91 /  39  50  23  28
GREENWOOD     73  88  72  88 /  35  54  26  36

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7/28




000
FXUS64 KJAN 300253
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
953 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
REMOVED RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE EVENING BUT WENT WITH
SCATTERED IN THE AREAS WHERE RAIN CONTINUES. THE UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE MID SOUTH WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO TEXAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BLOW UP ALONG THE AXIS AROUND
THE AREA...WITH VERY LITTLE EXTENDING INTO THE CWA AT THIS POINT.
MODELS SHOW SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS
AS IS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON WAS SINKING SOUTH
AND WEAKENING. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST. TWEAKED THE HOURLY VALUES...OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST WAS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST SITES ARE ENJOYING VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WHILE
SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST MS/LA. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY(FOR KGLH/KGWO/KGTR) AND INTO TUESDAY FOR ALL AREAS. THESE
STORMS COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT BUT IN ANY LOCATION THAT CAN REMAIN CLEAR...MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. /28/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  88  73  91 /  26  59  22  37
MERIDIAN      73  89  71  90 /  20  59  29  44
VICKSBURG     74  89  73  91 /  30  57  15  32
HATTIESBURG   74  90  73  91 /  24  54  24  47
NATCHEZ       74  89  73  90 /  31  52  15  37
GREENVILLE    74  90  73  91 /  39  50  23  28
GREENWOOD     73  88  72  88 /  35  54  26  36

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7/28




000
FXUS64 KJAN 300253
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
953 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
REMOVED RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE EVENING BUT WENT WITH
SCATTERED IN THE AREAS WHERE RAIN CONTINUES. THE UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE MID SOUTH WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO TEXAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BLOW UP ALONG THE AXIS AROUND
THE AREA...WITH VERY LITTLE EXTENDING INTO THE CWA AT THIS POINT.
MODELS SHOW SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS
AS IS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON WAS SINKING SOUTH
AND WEAKENING. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHWEST. TWEAKED THE HOURLY VALUES...OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST WAS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST SITES ARE ENJOYING VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WHILE
SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST MS/LA. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY(FOR KGLH/KGWO/KGTR) AND INTO TUESDAY FOR ALL AREAS. THESE
STORMS COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT BUT IN ANY LOCATION THAT CAN REMAIN CLEAR...MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. /28/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  88  73  91 /  26  59  22  37
MERIDIAN      73  89  71  90 /  20  59  29  44
VICKSBURG     74  89  73  91 /  30  57  15  32
HATTIESBURG   74  90  73  91 /  24  54  24  47
NATCHEZ       74  89  73  90 /  31  52  15  37
GREENVILLE    74  90  73  91 /  39  50  23  28
GREENWOOD     73  88  72  88 /  35  54  26  36

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7/28





000
FXUS64 KJAN 292018
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
312 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR IS CURRENTLY PARKED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS PWATS ARE GENERALLY AROUND
1.1-1.3 INCHES. MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST
THOUGH...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A FAIRLY DEEP
UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE
DELTA BY TUESDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. THIS IS FAIRLY ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...TOTALS OF AROUND 28 AND LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7.0 C/KM...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDESTORMS LOOK LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THE HWO/GRAPHICASTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS.

EXPECT MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 70S TUESDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.8-1.9 INCHES BY
TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE NEAR AS STEEP RANGING FROM AROUND 5.5-6.2
C/KM ALONG WITH INCREASED H500 HEIGHTS. A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT DUE NOT EXPECT AS MUCH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS TUESDAY. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES PAST
WEDNESDAY...SO WILL INCLUDE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW./15/

.LONG TERM...AT MIDWEEK WE WILL HAVE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. THE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN AT MIDWEEK. OUR
HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SPREADS
EAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BECOME ORIENTED
MORE ALONG THE GULF COAST. TOGETHER THESE RIDGES WILL RESULT IN MORE
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BUT SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
SWING ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE MEAN TROUGH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THESE SHORTWAVES LOOKS
TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND
WETTEST OVER THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGESTS THAT
THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA THURSDAY AND REMAIN
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTH. RIDGING SURFACE
AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER OUR CWA SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA ALONG WITH
GENERALLY NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPS./17/

&&

.AVIATION...ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT (AROUND
GLH/GWO/GTR) AND INTO TUESDAY ALL AREAS...WITH VIGOROUS STORMS MORE
LIKELY THEN. WIDESPREAD SUB MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT TERRIBLY LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS ALOFT. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  88  73  91 /  26  59  22  37
MERIDIAN      73  89  71  90 /  20  59  29  44
VICKSBURG     74  89  73  91 /  30  57  15  32
HATTIESBURG   74  90  73  91 /  24  54  24  47
NATCHEZ       74  89  73  90 /  24  52  15  37
GREENVILLE    74  90  73  91 /  39  50  23  28
GREENWOOD     73  88  72  88 /  35  54  26  36

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

15/BB




000
FXUS64 KJAN 292018
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
312 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR IS CURRENTLY PARKED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS PWATS ARE GENERALLY AROUND
1.1-1.3 INCHES. MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST
THOUGH...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A FAIRLY DEEP
UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE
DELTA BY TUESDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. THIS IS FAIRLY ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...TOTALS OF AROUND 28 AND LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7.0 C/KM...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDESTORMS LOOK LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THE HWO/GRAPHICASTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS.

EXPECT MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 70S TUESDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.8-1.9 INCHES BY
TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE NEAR AS STEEP RANGING FROM AROUND 5.5-6.2
C/KM ALONG WITH INCREASED H500 HEIGHTS. A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT DUE NOT EXPECT AS MUCH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS TUESDAY. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES PAST
WEDNESDAY...SO WILL INCLUDE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW./15/

.LONG TERM...AT MIDWEEK WE WILL HAVE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. THE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN AT MIDWEEK. OUR
HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SPREADS
EAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BECOME ORIENTED
MORE ALONG THE GULF COAST. TOGETHER THESE RIDGES WILL RESULT IN MORE
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BUT SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
SWING ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE MEAN TROUGH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THESE SHORTWAVES LOOKS
TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND
WETTEST OVER THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGESTS THAT
THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA THURSDAY AND REMAIN
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTH. RIDGING SURFACE
AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER OUR CWA SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA ALONG WITH
GENERALLY NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPS./17/

&&

.AVIATION...ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT (AROUND
GLH/GWO/GTR) AND INTO TUESDAY ALL AREAS...WITH VIGOROUS STORMS MORE
LIKELY THEN. WIDESPREAD SUB MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT TERRIBLY LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS ALOFT. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  88  73  91 /  26  59  22  37
MERIDIAN      73  89  71  90 /  20  59  29  44
VICKSBURG     74  89  73  91 /  30  57  15  32
HATTIESBURG   74  90  73  91 /  24  54  24  47
NATCHEZ       74  89  73  90 /  24  52  15  37
GREENVILLE    74  90  73  91 /  39  50  23  28
GREENWOOD     73  88  72  88 /  35  54  26  36

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

15/BB





000
FXUS64 KJAN 292018
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
312 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR IS CURRENTLY PARKED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS PWATS ARE GENERALLY AROUND
1.1-1.3 INCHES. MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST
THOUGH...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A FAIRLY DEEP
UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE
DELTA BY TUESDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. THIS IS FAIRLY ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...TOTALS OF AROUND 28 AND LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7.0 C/KM...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDESTORMS LOOK LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THE HWO/GRAPHICASTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS.

EXPECT MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 70S TUESDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.8-1.9 INCHES BY
TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE NEAR AS STEEP RANGING FROM AROUND 5.5-6.2
C/KM ALONG WITH INCREASED H500 HEIGHTS. A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT DUE NOT EXPECT AS MUCH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS TUESDAY. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES PAST
WEDNESDAY...SO WILL INCLUDE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW./15/

.LONG TERM...AT MIDWEEK WE WILL HAVE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. THE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN AT MIDWEEK. OUR
HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SPREADS
EAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BECOME ORIENTED
MORE ALONG THE GULF COAST. TOGETHER THESE RIDGES WILL RESULT IN MORE
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BUT SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
SWING ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE MEAN TROUGH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THESE SHORTWAVES LOOKS
TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND
WETTEST OVER THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGESTS THAT
THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA THURSDAY AND REMAIN
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTH. RIDGING SURFACE
AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER OUR CWA SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA ALONG WITH
GENERALLY NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPS./17/

&&

.AVIATION...ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT (AROUND
GLH/GWO/GTR) AND INTO TUESDAY ALL AREAS...WITH VIGOROUS STORMS MORE
LIKELY THEN. WIDESPREAD SUB MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT TERRIBLY LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS ALOFT. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  88  73  91 /  26  59  22  37
MERIDIAN      73  89  71  90 /  20  59  29  44
VICKSBURG     74  89  73  91 /  30  57  15  32
HATTIESBURG   74  90  73  91 /  24  54  24  47
NATCHEZ       74  89  73  90 /  24  52  15  37
GREENVILLE    74  90  73  91 /  39  50  23  28
GREENWOOD     73  88  72  88 /  35  54  26  36

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

15/BB




000
FXUS64 KJAN 292012
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
312 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR IS CURRENTLY PARKED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS PWATS ARE GENERALLY AROUND
1.1-1.3 INCHES. MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST
THOUGH...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A FAIRLY DEEP
UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE
DELTA BY TUESDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. THIS IS FAIRLY ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...TOTALS OF AROUND 28 AND LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7.0 C/KM...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDESTORMS LOOK LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THE HWO/GRAPHICASTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS.

EXPECT MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 70S TUESDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.8-1.9 INCHES BY
TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE NEAR AS STEEP RANGING FROM AROUND 5.5-6.2
C/KM ALONG WITH INCREASED H500 HEIGHTS. A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT DUE NOT EXPECT AS MUCH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS TUESDAY. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES PAST
WEDNESDAY...SO WILL INCLUDE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW./15/

.LONG TERM...AT MIDWEEK WE WILL HAVE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. THE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN AT MIDWEEK. OUR
HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SPREADS
EAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BECOME ORIENTED
MORE ALONG THE GULF COAST. TOGETHER THESE RIDGES WILL RESULT IN MORE
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BUT SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
SWING ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE MEAN TROUGH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THESE SHORTWAVES LOOKS
TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND
WETTEST OVER THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGESTS THAT
THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA THURSDAY AND REMAIN
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTH. RIDGING SURFACE
AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER OUR CWA SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA ALONG WITH
GENERALLY NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPS./17/



&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  88  73  91 /  26  59  22  37
MERIDIAN      73  89  71  90 /  20  59  29  44
VICKSBURG     74  89  73  91 /  30  57  15  32
HATTIESBURG   74  90  73  91 /  24  54  24  47
NATCHEZ       74  89  73  90 /  24  52  15  37
GREENVILLE    74  90  73  91 /  39  50  23  28
GREENWOOD     73  88  72  88 /  35  54  26  36

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

15/BB




000
FXUS64 KJAN 292012
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
312 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR IS CURRENTLY PARKED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS PWATS ARE GENERALLY AROUND
1.1-1.3 INCHES. MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST
THOUGH...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A FAIRLY DEEP
UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE
DELTA BY TUESDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. THIS IS FAIRLY ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...TOTALS OF AROUND 28 AND LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7.0 C/KM...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDESTORMS LOOK LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THE HWO/GRAPHICASTS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS.

EXPECT MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 70S TUESDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.8-1.9 INCHES BY
TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE NEAR AS STEEP RANGING FROM AROUND 5.5-6.2
C/KM ALONG WITH INCREASED H500 HEIGHTS. A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT DUE NOT EXPECT AS MUCH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS TUESDAY. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES PAST
WEDNESDAY...SO WILL INCLUDE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW./15/

.LONG TERM...AT MIDWEEK WE WILL HAVE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. THE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN AT MIDWEEK. OUR
HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SPREADS
EAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BECOME ORIENTED
MORE ALONG THE GULF COAST. TOGETHER THESE RIDGES WILL RESULT IN MORE
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BUT SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
SWING ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE MEAN TROUGH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THESE SHORTWAVES LOOKS
TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND
WETTEST OVER THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGESTS THAT
THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA THURSDAY AND REMAIN
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTH. RIDGING SURFACE
AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER OUR CWA SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA ALONG WITH
GENERALLY NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPS./17/



&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  88  73  91 /  26  59  22  37
MERIDIAN      73  89  71  90 /  20  59  29  44
VICKSBURG     74  89  73  91 /  30  57  15  32
HATTIESBURG   74  90  73  91 /  24  54  24  47
NATCHEZ       74  89  73  90 /  24  52  15  37
GREENVILLE    74  90  73  91 /  39  50  23  28
GREENWOOD     73  88  72  88 /  35  54  26  36

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

15/BB





000
FXUS64 KJAN 291534
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1015 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...RELATIVELY DRY AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH THE JAN MORNING SOUNDING INDICATING PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND IN
THE WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THOSE AREAS. LOCAL MICROBURST
CHECKLIST INDICATES THAT ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO POSSIBILITY SEVERE IN THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE PRETTY ISOLATED...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION IN THE HWO. MOST
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY THOUGH UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME./15/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTER A DRY END TO THE
WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE GOING INTO TUESDAY.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED DROPPING OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA TODAY BUT THE SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OZARKS TOWARD OUR CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE 00Z MON JAN SOUNDING HAD A PWAT BELOW ONE INCH AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84. DEW
POINTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND...INCH AND A HALF
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK OVER THE WHOLE CWA BY THIS EVENING BUT
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH AND OVER OUR
SOUTH. THE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH WILL BE DUE IN PART TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH WILL BE DUE IN
PART TO THE OLD STALLED FRONT FROM SATURDAY DRIFTING BACK NORTH AS A
WEAK WARM FRONT. LOCAL RADARS WERE ALREADY SHOWING A FEW EARLY
MORNING STORMS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY AND BRING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS WILL HELP THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTH DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA DURING PEAK
HEATING TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NOSING WEST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF MAINTAINING A MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK UP AROUND 1.75
INCHES WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S TO FUEL A GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS. THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.8C/KM AND VERTICAL
TOTALS OF 27-28. THE EARLIER START TO CONVECTION MAY HINDER STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER
SIZED HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT. /22/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...AT MIDWEEK WE WILL HAVE
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN AT MIDWEEK. OUR HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SPREADS EAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE ALONG THE GULF COAST.
TOGETHER THESE RIDGES WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL AFFECT THE MEAN TROUGH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THESE SHORTWAVES LOOKS TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING TOWARD THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.
THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WETTEST OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTH. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER OUR CWA SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA ALONG WITH GENERALLY NORMAL
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS./17/

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS SOUTH OF I-20...OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH VIGOROUS STORMS MORE
LIKELY THEN. WIDESPREAD SUB MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT TERRIBLY LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS ALOFT. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  74  88  73 /  12  26  59  22
MERIDIAN      91  73  89  71 /   9  20  59  29
VICKSBURG     90  74  89  73 /  14  30  57  15
HATTIESBURG   90  74  90  73 /  24  24  54  24
NATCHEZ       89  74  89  73 /  33  24  52  15
GREENVILLE    92  74  90  73 /  14  39  50  23
GREENWOOD     90  73  88  72 /  13  35  54  26

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/17/22





000
FXUS64 KJAN 291534
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1015 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...RELATIVELY DRY AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH THE JAN MORNING SOUNDING INDICATING PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND IN
THE WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THOSE AREAS. LOCAL MICROBURST
CHECKLIST INDICATES THAT ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO POSSIBILITY SEVERE IN THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE PRETTY ISOLATED...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION IN THE HWO. MOST
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY THOUGH UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME./15/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTER A DRY END TO THE
WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE GOING INTO TUESDAY.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED DROPPING OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA TODAY BUT THE SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OZARKS TOWARD OUR CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE 00Z MON JAN SOUNDING HAD A PWAT BELOW ONE INCH AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84. DEW
POINTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND...INCH AND A HALF
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK OVER THE WHOLE CWA BY THIS EVENING BUT
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH AND OVER OUR
SOUTH. THE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH WILL BE DUE IN PART TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH WILL BE DUE IN
PART TO THE OLD STALLED FRONT FROM SATURDAY DRIFTING BACK NORTH AS A
WEAK WARM FRONT. LOCAL RADARS WERE ALREADY SHOWING A FEW EARLY
MORNING STORMS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY AND BRING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS WILL HELP THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTH DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA DURING PEAK
HEATING TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NOSING WEST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF MAINTAINING A MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK UP AROUND 1.75
INCHES WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S TO FUEL A GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS. THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.8C/KM AND VERTICAL
TOTALS OF 27-28. THE EARLIER START TO CONVECTION MAY HINDER STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER
SIZED HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT. /22/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...AT MIDWEEK WE WILL HAVE
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN AT MIDWEEK. OUR HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SPREADS EAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE ALONG THE GULF COAST.
TOGETHER THESE RIDGES WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL AFFECT THE MEAN TROUGH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THESE SHORTWAVES LOOKS TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING TOWARD THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.
THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WETTEST OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTH. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER OUR CWA SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA ALONG WITH GENERALLY NORMAL
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS./17/

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS SOUTH OF I-20...OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH VIGOROUS STORMS MORE
LIKELY THEN. WIDESPREAD SUB MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT TERRIBLY LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS ALOFT. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  74  88  73 /  12  26  59  22
MERIDIAN      91  73  89  71 /   9  20  59  29
VICKSBURG     90  74  89  73 /  14  30  57  15
HATTIESBURG   90  74  90  73 /  24  24  54  24
NATCHEZ       89  74  89  73 /  33  24  52  15
GREENVILLE    92  74  90  73 /  14  39  50  23
GREENWOOD     90  73  88  72 /  13  35  54  26

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/17/22





000
FXUS64 KJAN 291534
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1015 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...RELATIVELY DRY AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH THE JAN MORNING SOUNDING INDICATING PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND IN
THE WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THOSE AREAS. LOCAL MICROBURST
CHECKLIST INDICATES THAT ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO POSSIBILITY SEVERE IN THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO BE PRETTY ISOLATED...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION IN THE HWO. MOST
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY THOUGH UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME./15/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTER A DRY END TO THE
WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE GOING INTO TUESDAY.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED DROPPING OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA TODAY BUT THE SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OZARKS TOWARD OUR CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE 00Z MON JAN SOUNDING HAD A PWAT BELOW ONE INCH AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84. DEW
POINTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND...INCH AND A HALF
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK OVER THE WHOLE CWA BY THIS EVENING BUT
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH AND OVER OUR
SOUTH. THE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH WILL BE DUE IN PART TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH WILL BE DUE IN
PART TO THE OLD STALLED FRONT FROM SATURDAY DRIFTING BACK NORTH AS A
WEAK WARM FRONT. LOCAL RADARS WERE ALREADY SHOWING A FEW EARLY
MORNING STORMS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY AND BRING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS WILL HELP THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTH DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA DURING PEAK
HEATING TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NOSING WEST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF MAINTAINING A MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK UP AROUND 1.75
INCHES WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S TO FUEL A GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS. THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.8C/KM AND VERTICAL
TOTALS OF 27-28. THE EARLIER START TO CONVECTION MAY HINDER STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER
SIZED HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT. /22/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...AT MIDWEEK WE WILL HAVE
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN AT MIDWEEK. OUR HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SPREADS EAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE ALONG THE GULF COAST.
TOGETHER THESE RIDGES WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL AFFECT THE MEAN TROUGH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THESE SHORTWAVES LOOKS TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING TOWARD THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.
THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WETTEST OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTH. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER OUR CWA SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA ALONG WITH GENERALLY NORMAL
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS./17/

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS SOUTH OF I-20...OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH VIGOROUS STORMS MORE
LIKELY THEN. WIDESPREAD SUB MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT TERRIBLY LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS ALOFT. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  74  88  73 /  12  26  59  22
MERIDIAN      91  73  89  71 /   9  20  59  29
VICKSBURG     90  74  89  73 /  14  30  57  15
HATTIESBURG   90  74  90  73 /  24  24  54  24
NATCHEZ       89  74  89  73 /  33  24  52  15
GREENVILLE    92  74  90  73 /  14  39  50  23
GREENWOOD     90  73  88  72 /  13  35  54  26

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/17/22




000
FXUS64 KJAN 290854
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
354 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTER A DRY END TO THE
WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE GOING INTO TUESDAY.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED DROPPING OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA TODAY BUT THE SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OZARKS TOWARD OUR CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE 00Z MON JAN SOUNDING HAD A PWAT BELOW ONE INCH AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84. DEW
POINTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND...INCH AND A HALF
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK OVER THE WHOLE CWA BY THIS EVENING BUT
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH AND OVER OUR
SOUTH. THE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH WILL BE DUE IN PART TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH WILL BE DUE IN
PART TO THE OLD STALLED FRONT FROM SATURDAY DRIFTING BACK NORTH AS A
WEAK WARM FRONT. LOCAL RADARS WERE ALREADY SHOWING A FEW EARLY
MORNING STORMS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY AND BRING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS WILL HELP THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTH DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA DURING PEAK
HEATING TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NOSING WEST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF MAINTAINING A MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK UP AROUND 1.75
INCHES WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S TO FUEL A GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS. THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.8C/KM AND VERTICAL
TOTALS OF 27-28. THE EARLIER START TO CONVECTION MAY HINDER STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER
SIZED HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT. /22/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...AT MIDWEEK WE WILL HAVE
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN AT MIDWEEK. OUR HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SPREADS EAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE ALONG THE GULF COAST.
TOGETHER THESE RIDGES WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL AFFECT THE MEAN TROUGH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THESE SHORTWAVES LOOKS TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING TOWARD THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.
THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WETTEST OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTH. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER OUR CWA SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA ALONG WITH GENERALLY NORMAL
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS./17/

&&

.AVIATION...A COUPLE OF TSTMS WERE NOTED MOVING EAST ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT JUST SOUTH OF HWY 84. THESE MAY COME IN VCTY OF HBG
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PATCHY AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT IN ADDITION TO TSTMS IN VCTY OF
HBG...A FEW AFTN/EVNG STORMS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  74  88  73 /  12  26  59  22
MERIDIAN      91  73  89  71 /   9  20  59  29
VICKSBURG     90  74  89  73 /  14  30  57  15
HATTIESBURG   90  74  90  73 /  24  24  54  24
NATCHEZ       89  74  89  73 /  33  24  52  15
GREENVILLE    92  74  90  73 /  14  39  50  23
GREENWOOD     90  73  88  72 /  13  35  54  26

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/17/22




000
FXUS64 KJAN 290854
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
354 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTER A DRY END TO THE
WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE GOING INTO TUESDAY.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED DROPPING OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA TODAY BUT THE SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OZARKS TOWARD OUR CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE 00Z MON JAN SOUNDING HAD A PWAT BELOW ONE INCH AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84. DEW
POINTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND...INCH AND A HALF
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK OVER THE WHOLE CWA BY THIS EVENING BUT
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH AND OVER OUR
SOUTH. THE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH WILL BE DUE IN PART TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH WILL BE DUE IN
PART TO THE OLD STALLED FRONT FROM SATURDAY DRIFTING BACK NORTH AS A
WEAK WARM FRONT. LOCAL RADARS WERE ALREADY SHOWING A FEW EARLY
MORNING STORMS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY AND BRING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS WILL HELP THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTH DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA DURING PEAK
HEATING TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NOSING WEST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF MAINTAINING A MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK UP AROUND 1.75
INCHES WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S TO FUEL A GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS. THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.8C/KM AND VERTICAL
TOTALS OF 27-28. THE EARLIER START TO CONVECTION MAY HINDER STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER
SIZED HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT. /22/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...AT MIDWEEK WE WILL HAVE
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION. THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN AT MIDWEEK. OUR HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SPREADS EAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE ALONG THE GULF COAST.
TOGETHER THESE RIDGES WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL AFFECT THE MEAN TROUGH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THESE SHORTWAVES LOOKS TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING TOWARD THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.
THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND WETTEST OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTH. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER OUR CWA SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA ALONG WITH GENERALLY NORMAL
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS./17/

&&

.AVIATION...A COUPLE OF TSTMS WERE NOTED MOVING EAST ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT JUST SOUTH OF HWY 84. THESE MAY COME IN VCTY OF HBG
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PATCHY AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT IN ADDITION TO TSTMS IN VCTY OF
HBG...A FEW AFTN/EVNG STORMS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  74  88  73 /  12  26  59  22
MERIDIAN      91  73  89  71 /   9  20  59  29
VICKSBURG     90  74  89  73 /  14  30  57  15
HATTIESBURG   90  74  90  73 /  24  24  54  24
NATCHEZ       89  74  89  73 /  33  24  52  15
GREENVILLE    92  74  90  73 /  14  39  50  23
GREENWOOD     90  73  88  72 /  13  35  54  26

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/17/22





000
FXUS64 KJAN 290204 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
904 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE ARKLAMISS AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES IN VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ONLY CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST WERE TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR THIS
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...SOME PATCHY AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY. /EC/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION... ITS BEEN A WARM BUT GENERALLY NICE LATE JUNE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DEFINITELY DRIER AIR
THAT HAS BEEN BROUGHT SOUTH BY A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STALLING JUST
NORTH OF THE COAST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS HELPING INSTIGATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTIRELY SOUTH (BUT
JUST SOUTH) OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS THE MENTIONED FRONT WILL COMPLETELY STALL AND BEGIN TO RETURN
BACK NORTHWARD. LATE TONIGHT THIS MAY RESULT IN A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84...BUT CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN
ZONES REALLY WILL MAINLY WAIT UNTIL MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON ON MONDAY TO
INCREASE ABOVE THE 15 PERCENT RANGE. A STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOUTHERN AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THAT TIME RANGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER IN ALL AREAS TOMORROW WITH MORE HUMIDITY EVEN IN
NORTHERN AREAS WHERE RAIN DURING THE DAY IS NOT VERY LIKELY AT ALL.

LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ANOTHER RATHER SIGNIFICANT
DISTURBANCE IN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE HEADED THIS WAY.
THE LIFT FROM THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO JUXTAPOSE WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RETURNING WARM FRONT NEAR AND A LITTLE NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR STARTING LATE TOMORROW NIGHT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOST
NUMEROUS DURING THE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY IN MOST
AREAS ALTHOUGH THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL A CLUSTER OF STORMS
COULD DEVELOP JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. SUCH A
CLUSTER WOULD OF COURSE HAVE ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
STRONG (TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING) WIND GUSTS. AT THIS POINT SHEAR
LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR MINIMUM THRESHOLDS TO CREATE A LARGE
AND ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SO IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE MORE
TYPICAL ACTIVITY (SMALLER CLUSTERS AND PULSE STORMS) WILL WAIT TO
MATERIALIZE TO PEAK LEVELS UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BUT EVEN THIS
LATTER MODE OF EVOLUTION WILL BRING AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE STORM
RISK TO THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA CONSIDERING
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH (AS A SYMPTOM OF RELATIVELY CHILLY
AIR WELL ALOFT). FOR THIS ISSUANCE WE EXPANDED THE LIMITED RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS PREVIOUSLY INTRODUCED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE
CWA...AND ALSO MOVED FORWARD THE POTENTIAL TIMING WINDOW.

AFTER TUESDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE AND MORE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE OVERALL PATTERN STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES...BUT
THE BEST FORCING/SHEAR/CONVERGENCE GETS INCREASINGLY FOCUSED FURTHER
NORTH AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO REGAIN STRENGTH IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THIS PERIOD STILL REQUIRES WATCHING SINCE LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE HIGH OVER OUR REGION AND THUS ABLE TO LEND
PLENTY OF WORRISOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO ANY INCOMING STORM
COMPLEXES. BY NEXT WEEKEND CONFIDENCE IN STRENGTHENING RIDGING OVER
MOST OF THE REGION AND VICINITY INCREASES...WHICH WILL INCREASE HEAT
POTENTIAL AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN ALL AREAS. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  91  73  89 /   5  16  26  59
MERIDIAN      62  90  70  89 /   5  10  20  59
VICKSBURG     66  92  73  90 /   5  21  30  57
HATTIESBURG   69  91  71  91 /  16  31  24  47
NATCHEZ       70  90  73  89 /  13  32  24  49
GREENVILLE    67  93  73  90 /   2  12  39  50
GREENWOOD     65  92  72  88 /   2   9  35  54

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 290204 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
904 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE ARKLAMISS AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES IN VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ONLY CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST WERE TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR THIS
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...SOME PATCHY AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY. /EC/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION... ITS BEEN A WARM BUT GENERALLY NICE LATE JUNE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DEFINITELY DRIER AIR
THAT HAS BEEN BROUGHT SOUTH BY A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STALLING JUST
NORTH OF THE COAST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS HELPING INSTIGATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTIRELY SOUTH (BUT
JUST SOUTH) OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS THE MENTIONED FRONT WILL COMPLETELY STALL AND BEGIN TO RETURN
BACK NORTHWARD. LATE TONIGHT THIS MAY RESULT IN A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84...BUT CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN
ZONES REALLY WILL MAINLY WAIT UNTIL MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON ON MONDAY TO
INCREASE ABOVE THE 15 PERCENT RANGE. A STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOUTHERN AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THAT TIME RANGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER IN ALL AREAS TOMORROW WITH MORE HUMIDITY EVEN IN
NORTHERN AREAS WHERE RAIN DURING THE DAY IS NOT VERY LIKELY AT ALL.

LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ANOTHER RATHER SIGNIFICANT
DISTURBANCE IN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE HEADED THIS WAY.
THE LIFT FROM THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO JUXTAPOSE WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RETURNING WARM FRONT NEAR AND A LITTLE NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR STARTING LATE TOMORROW NIGHT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOST
NUMEROUS DURING THE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY IN MOST
AREAS ALTHOUGH THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL A CLUSTER OF STORMS
COULD DEVELOP JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. SUCH A
CLUSTER WOULD OF COURSE HAVE ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
STRONG (TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING) WIND GUSTS. AT THIS POINT SHEAR
LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR MINIMUM THRESHOLDS TO CREATE A LARGE
AND ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SO IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE MORE
TYPICAL ACTIVITY (SMALLER CLUSTERS AND PULSE STORMS) WILL WAIT TO
MATERIALIZE TO PEAK LEVELS UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BUT EVEN THIS
LATTER MODE OF EVOLUTION WILL BRING AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE STORM
RISK TO THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA CONSIDERING
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH (AS A SYMPTOM OF RELATIVELY CHILLY
AIR WELL ALOFT). FOR THIS ISSUANCE WE EXPANDED THE LIMITED RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS PREVIOUSLY INTRODUCED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE
CWA...AND ALSO MOVED FORWARD THE POTENTIAL TIMING WINDOW.

AFTER TUESDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE AND MORE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE OVERALL PATTERN STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES...BUT
THE BEST FORCING/SHEAR/CONVERGENCE GETS INCREASINGLY FOCUSED FURTHER
NORTH AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO REGAIN STRENGTH IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THIS PERIOD STILL REQUIRES WATCHING SINCE LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE HIGH OVER OUR REGION AND THUS ABLE TO LEND
PLENTY OF WORRISOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO ANY INCOMING STORM
COMPLEXES. BY NEXT WEEKEND CONFIDENCE IN STRENGTHENING RIDGING OVER
MOST OF THE REGION AND VICINITY INCREASES...WHICH WILL INCREASE HEAT
POTENTIAL AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN ALL AREAS. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  91  73  89 /   5  16  26  59
MERIDIAN      62  90  70  89 /   5  10  20  59
VICKSBURG     66  92  73  90 /   5  21  30  57
HATTIESBURG   69  91  71  91 /  16  31  24  47
NATCHEZ       70  90  73  89 /  13  32  24  49
GREENVILLE    67  93  73  90 /   2  12  39  50
GREENWOOD     65  92  72  88 /   2   9  35  54

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 282137
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
430 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION... ITS BEEN A WARM BUT GENERALLY NICE LATE JUNE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DEFINITELY DRIER AIR
THAT HAS BEEN BROUGHT SOUTH BY A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STALLING JUST
NORTH OF THE COAST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS HELPING INSTIGATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTIRELY SOUTH (BUT
JUST SOUTH) OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS THE MENTIONED FRONT WILL COMPLETELY STALL AND BEGIN TO RETURN
BACK NORTHWARD. LATE TONIGHT THIS MAY RESULT IN A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84...BUT CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN
ZONES REALLY WILL MAINLY WAIT UNTIL MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON ON MONDAY TO
INCREASE ABOVE THE 15 PERCENT RANGE. A STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOUTHERN AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THAT TIME RANGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER IN ALL AREAS TOMORROW WITH MORE HUMIDITY EVEN IN
NORTHERN AREAS WHERE RAIN DURING THE DAY IS NOT VERY LIKELY AT ALL.

LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ANOTHER RATHER SIGNIFICANT
DISTURBANCE IN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE HEADED THIS WAY.
THE LIFT FROM THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO JUXTAPOSE WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RETURNING WARM FRONT NEAR AND A LITTLE NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR STARTING LATE TOMORROW NIGHT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOST
NUMEROUS DURING THE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY IN MOST
AREAS ALTHOUGH THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL A CLUSTER OF STORMS
COULD DEVELOP JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. SUCH A
CLUSTER WOULD OF COURSE HAVE ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
STRONG (TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING) WIND GUSTS. AT THIS POINT SHEAR
LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR MINIMUM THRESHOLDS TO CREATE A LARGE
AND ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SO IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE MORE
TYPICAL ACTIVITY (SMALLER CLUSTERS AND PULSE STORMS) WILL WAIT TO
MATERIALIZE TO PEAK LEVELS UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BUT EVEN THIS
LATTER MODE OF EVOLUTION WILL BRING AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE STORM
RISK TO THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA CONSIDERING
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH (AS A SYMPTOM OF RELATIVELY CHILLY
AIR WELL ALOFT). FOR THIS ISSUANCE WE EXPANDED THE LIMITED RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS PREVIOUSLY INTRODUCED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE
CWA...AND ALSO MOVED FORWARD THE POTENTIAL TIMING WINDOW.

AFTER TUESDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE AND MORE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE OVERALL PATTERN STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES...BUT
THE BEST FORCING/SHEAR/CONVERGENCE GETS INCREASINGLY FOCUSED FURTHER
NORTH AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO REGAIN STRENGTH IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THIS PERIOD STILL REQUIRES WATCHING SINCE LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE HIGH OVER OUR REGION AND THUS ABLE TO LEND
PLENTY OF WORRISOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO ANY INCOMING STORM
COMPLEXES. BY NEXT WEEKEND CONFIDENCE IN STRENGTHENING RIDGING OVER
MOST OF THE REGION AND VICINITY INCREASES...WHICH WILL INCREASE HEAT
POTENTIAL AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN ALL AREAS. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAFS SITES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY
BETWEEN 10-13Z...DUE PRIMARILY TO PATCHY GROUND FOG.  HOWEVER...VFR
VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY ENSUE AFTER SUNRISE AS FOG DISSIPATES.
WINDS THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL SUBSIDE AND BE LIGHT
TO CALM. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  91  73  89 /   5  16  26  59
MERIDIAN      62  90  70  89 /   5  10  20  59
VICKSBURG     66  92  73  90 /   5  21  30  57
HATTIESBURG   69  91  71  91 /  16  31  24  47
NATCHEZ       70  90  73  89 /  13  32  24  49
GREENVILLE    67  93  73  90 /   2  12  39  50
GREENWOOD     65  92  72  88 /   2   9  35  54

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/19/22





000
FXUS64 KJAN 282137
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
430 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION... ITS BEEN A WARM BUT GENERALLY NICE LATE JUNE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DEFINITELY DRIER AIR
THAT HAS BEEN BROUGHT SOUTH BY A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STALLING JUST
NORTH OF THE COAST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS HELPING INSTIGATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTIRELY SOUTH (BUT
JUST SOUTH) OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS THE MENTIONED FRONT WILL COMPLETELY STALL AND BEGIN TO RETURN
BACK NORTHWARD. LATE TONIGHT THIS MAY RESULT IN A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84...BUT CHANCES OF CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN
ZONES REALLY WILL MAINLY WAIT UNTIL MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON ON MONDAY TO
INCREASE ABOVE THE 15 PERCENT RANGE. A STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOUTHERN AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THAT TIME RANGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER IN ALL AREAS TOMORROW WITH MORE HUMIDITY EVEN IN
NORTHERN AREAS WHERE RAIN DURING THE DAY IS NOT VERY LIKELY AT ALL.

LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ANOTHER RATHER SIGNIFICANT
DISTURBANCE IN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE HEADED THIS WAY.
THE LIFT FROM THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO JUXTAPOSE WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RETURNING WARM FRONT NEAR AND A LITTLE NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR STARTING LATE TOMORROW NIGHT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOST
NUMEROUS DURING THE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY IN MOST
AREAS ALTHOUGH THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL A CLUSTER OF STORMS
COULD DEVELOP JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. SUCH A
CLUSTER WOULD OF COURSE HAVE ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
STRONG (TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING) WIND GUSTS. AT THIS POINT SHEAR
LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR MINIMUM THRESHOLDS TO CREATE A LARGE
AND ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SO IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE MORE
TYPICAL ACTIVITY (SMALLER CLUSTERS AND PULSE STORMS) WILL WAIT TO
MATERIALIZE TO PEAK LEVELS UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BUT EVEN THIS
LATTER MODE OF EVOLUTION WILL BRING AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE STORM
RISK TO THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA CONSIDERING
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH (AS A SYMPTOM OF RELATIVELY CHILLY
AIR WELL ALOFT). FOR THIS ISSUANCE WE EXPANDED THE LIMITED RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS PREVIOUSLY INTRODUCED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE
CWA...AND ALSO MOVED FORWARD THE POTENTIAL TIMING WINDOW.

AFTER TUESDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE AND MORE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE OVERALL PATTERN STILL
LOOKS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES...BUT
THE BEST FORCING/SHEAR/CONVERGENCE GETS INCREASINGLY FOCUSED FURTHER
NORTH AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO REGAIN STRENGTH IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THIS PERIOD STILL REQUIRES WATCHING SINCE LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE HIGH OVER OUR REGION AND THUS ABLE TO LEND
PLENTY OF WORRISOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO ANY INCOMING STORM
COMPLEXES. BY NEXT WEEKEND CONFIDENCE IN STRENGTHENING RIDGING OVER
MOST OF THE REGION AND VICINITY INCREASES...WHICH WILL INCREASE HEAT
POTENTIAL AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES IN ALL AREAS. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAFS SITES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY
BETWEEN 10-13Z...DUE PRIMARILY TO PATCHY GROUND FOG.  HOWEVER...VFR
VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY ENSUE AFTER SUNRISE AS FOG DISSIPATES.
WINDS THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL SUBSIDE AND BE LIGHT
TO CALM. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  91  73  89 /   5  16  26  59
MERIDIAN      62  90  70  89 /   5  10  20  59
VICKSBURG     66  92  73  90 /   5  21  30  57
HATTIESBURG   69  91  71  91 /  16  31  24  47
NATCHEZ       70  90  73  89 /  13  32  24  49
GREENVILLE    67  93  73  90 /   2  12  39  50
GREENWOOD     65  92  72  88 /   2   9  35  54

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/19/22




000
FXUS64 KJAN 281508 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1005 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEEN PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE PAST 24 HOURS CURRENTLY SEEMS TO BE IN THE
PROCESS OF STALLING NEAR THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. LOCATIONS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE HUMID CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE LESS HEAT TODAY. IN
THOSE AREAS A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL BUT...IN
GENERAL...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND TRANSPORT DIRECTED AT THE COAST
IN THE ATMOSPHERIC LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
TO OUR SOUTH. NORTH OF THE FRONT EXPECT PLEASANT LATE JUNE
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE WITH MUCH LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...DESPITE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ORIENTED JUST NORTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR...STILL SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAFS SITES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IS
POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY BETWEEN 10-13Z...DUE TO
PATCHY FOG.  HOWEVER...VFR VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY ENSUE AFTER
SUNRISE AS FOG DISSIPATES.  WINDS TODAY WILL HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT AT AROUND 5 KNOTS. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPS/
DEWPOINTS NOW MOSTLY IN THE 60S ALONG THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE
FARTHER SOUTH, SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG
THE 84/98 CORRIDORS. HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PUSH OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIP
SOUTHWARD. WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT AS MOST LOCATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED,
SO CHANGES BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO MANIFEST AT
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, EXPECTING THAT TO CHANGE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE
AS MIXING RESUMES, BRINGING DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE CALM WIND, BUT DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING THE REGION SHOULD PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING MORE
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BECOMES INCREASINGLY EXIGUOUS. THE DRY AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 TODAY, BUT
WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS, HEAT STRESS WILL BE LOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE AREA AS THE
FRONT HANGS UP NEAR THE COAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS BACK AROUND TO
SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY MONDAY, WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION RETURNING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ATTENTION THEN TURNS FARTHER NORTH AS AN UPPER JET STREAK
MOVES TOWARD THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL LIKELY SET OFF
CONVECTION OVER THE MIDSOUTH WHICH COULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. /DL/

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR REGION THAT WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
OUR CWA AND HELP A WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO
OUR CWA DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NOSING
WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF RESULTING IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK UP
AROUND 1.75 INCHES WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S TO FUEL
A GREATER COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. THE LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.8C/KM AND VERTICAL TOTALS OF 27-28. THESE ALONG WITH OTHER
INGREDIENTS SUGGEST A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY.
OUR HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
SPREADS EAST WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE ALONG THE GULF COAST. TOGETHER THESE
RIDGES WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.
THERE REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DEEPENING THE MEAN TROUGH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS
TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE CANADIAN IS PERHAPS THE FARTHER
SOUTH AND WETTEST OVER OUR CWA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA THURSDAY AND
REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTH. RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER OUR CWA SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA. NORMAL
LOWS RUN 69-71F AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 91-92F. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND.  /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  67  92  73 /   0   0  13  21
MERIDIAN      90  60  91  71 /   1   0   9  15
VICKSBURG     90  65  90  73 /   0   0  14  22
HATTIESBURG   89  69  90  74 /  19  13  30  28
NATCHEZ       87  70  88  74 /   3   9  29  26
GREENVILLE    89  67  91  73 /   0   0   9  29
GREENWOOD     88  63  90  73 /   0   0   9  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/19/DL/22





000
FXUS64 KJAN 281508 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1005 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEEN PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE PAST 24 HOURS CURRENTLY SEEMS TO BE IN THE
PROCESS OF STALLING NEAR THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. LOCATIONS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE HUMID CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE LESS HEAT TODAY. IN
THOSE AREAS A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL BUT...IN
GENERAL...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND TRANSPORT DIRECTED AT THE COAST
IN THE ATMOSPHERIC LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
TO OUR SOUTH. NORTH OF THE FRONT EXPECT PLEASANT LATE JUNE
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE WITH MUCH LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...DESPITE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ORIENTED JUST NORTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR...STILL SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAFS SITES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IS
POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY BETWEEN 10-13Z...DUE TO
PATCHY FOG.  HOWEVER...VFR VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY ENSUE AFTER
SUNRISE AS FOG DISSIPATES.  WINDS TODAY WILL HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT AT AROUND 5 KNOTS. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPS/
DEWPOINTS NOW MOSTLY IN THE 60S ALONG THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE
FARTHER SOUTH, SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG
THE 84/98 CORRIDORS. HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PUSH OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIP
SOUTHWARD. WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT AS MOST LOCATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED,
SO CHANGES BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO MANIFEST AT
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, EXPECTING THAT TO CHANGE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE
AS MIXING RESUMES, BRINGING DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE CALM WIND, BUT DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING THE REGION SHOULD PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING MORE
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BECOMES INCREASINGLY EXIGUOUS. THE DRY AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 TODAY, BUT
WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS, HEAT STRESS WILL BE LOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE AREA AS THE
FRONT HANGS UP NEAR THE COAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS BACK AROUND TO
SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY MONDAY, WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION RETURNING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ATTENTION THEN TURNS FARTHER NORTH AS AN UPPER JET STREAK
MOVES TOWARD THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL LIKELY SET OFF
CONVECTION OVER THE MIDSOUTH WHICH COULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. /DL/

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR REGION THAT WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
OUR CWA AND HELP A WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO
OUR CWA DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NOSING
WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF RESULTING IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK UP
AROUND 1.75 INCHES WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S TO FUEL
A GREATER COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. THE LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.8C/KM AND VERTICAL TOTALS OF 27-28. THESE ALONG WITH OTHER
INGREDIENTS SUGGEST A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY.
OUR HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
SPREADS EAST WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE ALONG THE GULF COAST. TOGETHER THESE
RIDGES WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.
THERE REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DEEPENING THE MEAN TROUGH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS
TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE CANADIAN IS PERHAPS THE FARTHER
SOUTH AND WETTEST OVER OUR CWA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA THURSDAY AND
REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTH. RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER OUR CWA SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA. NORMAL
LOWS RUN 69-71F AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 91-92F. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND.  /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       90  67  92  73 /   0   0  13  21
MERIDIAN      90  60  91  71 /   1   0   9  15
VICKSBURG     90  65  90  73 /   0   0  14  22
HATTIESBURG   89  69  90  74 /  19  13  30  28
NATCHEZ       87  70  88  74 /   3   9  29  26
GREENVILLE    89  67  91  73 /   0   0   9  29
GREENWOOD     88  63  90  73 /   0   0   9  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/19/DL/22




000
FXUS64 KJAN 280831
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
331 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPS/
DEWPOINTS NOW MOSTLY IN THE 60S ALONG THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE
FARTHER SOUTH, SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG
THE 84/98 CORRIDORS. HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PUSH OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIP
SOUTHWARD. WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT AS MOST LOCATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED,
SO CHANGES BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO MANIFEST AT
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, EXPECTING THAT TO CHANGE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE
AS MIXING RESUMES, BRINGING DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE CALM WIND, BUT DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING THE REGION SHOULD PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING MORE
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BECOMES INCREASINGLY EXIGUOUS. THE DRY AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 TODAY, BUT
WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS, HEAT STRESS WILL BE LOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE AREA AS THE
FRONT HANGS UP NEAR THE COAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS BACK AROUND TO
SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY MONDAY, WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION RETURNING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ATTENTION THEN TURNS FARTHER NORTH AS AN UPPER JET STREAK
MOVES TOWARD THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL LIKELY SET OFF
CONVECTION OVER THE MIDSOUTH WHICH COULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. /DL/

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR REGION THAT WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
OUR CWA AND HELP A WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO
OUR CWA DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NOSING
WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF RESULTING IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK UP
AROUND 1.75 INCHES WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S TO FUEL
A GREATER COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. THE LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.8C/KM AND VERTICAL TOTALS OF 27-28. THESE ALONG WITH OTHER
INGREDIENTS SUGGEST A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY.
OUR HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
SPREADS EAST WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE ALONG THE GULF COAST. TOGETHER THESE
RIDGES WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.
THERE REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DEEPENING THE MEAN TROUGH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS
TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE CANADIAN IS PERHAPS THE FARTHER
SOUTH AND WETTEST OVER OUR CWA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA THURSDAY AND
REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTH. RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER OUR CWA SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA. NORMAL
LOWS RUN 69-71F AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 91-92F. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND.  /22/

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING, QUICKLY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE. SHRA WHICH
HAS BEEN ONGOING AROUND HBG OVERNIGHT WILL DECREASE AROUND DAYBREAK
AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MORE
ISOLATED SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEZ TO HBG CORRIDOR DURING THE
DAYTIME. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       89  67  92  73 /   0   0  13  21
MERIDIAN      89  60  91  71 /   7   0   9  15
VICKSBURG     89  65  90  73 /   0   0  14  22
HATTIESBURG   89  69  90  74 /  25  13  30  28
NATCHEZ       87  70  88  74 /   8   9  29  26
GREENVILLE    89  67  91  73 /   0   0   9  29
GREENWOOD     88  63  90  73 /   0   0   9  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/22




000
FXUS64 KJAN 280831
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
331 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPS/
DEWPOINTS NOW MOSTLY IN THE 60S ALONG THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE
FARTHER SOUTH, SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG
THE 84/98 CORRIDORS. HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PUSH OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIP
SOUTHWARD. WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT AS MOST LOCATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED,
SO CHANGES BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO MANIFEST AT
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, EXPECTING THAT TO CHANGE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE
AS MIXING RESUMES, BRINGING DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE CALM WIND, BUT DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING THE REGION SHOULD PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING MORE
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD.

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BECOMES INCREASINGLY EXIGUOUS. THE DRY AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 TODAY, BUT
WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS, HEAT STRESS WILL BE LOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE AREA AS THE
FRONT HANGS UP NEAR THE COAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS BACK AROUND TO
SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY MONDAY, WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION RETURNING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ATTENTION THEN TURNS FARTHER NORTH AS AN UPPER JET STREAK
MOVES TOWARD THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL LIKELY SET OFF
CONVECTION OVER THE MIDSOUTH WHICH COULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. /DL/

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR REGION THAT WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
OUR CWA AND HELP A WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO
OUR CWA DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE NOSING
WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF RESULTING IN A MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK UP
AROUND 1.75 INCHES WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S TO FUEL
A GREATER COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. THE LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.8C/KM AND VERTICAL TOTALS OF 27-28. THESE ALONG WITH OTHER
INGREDIENTS SUGGEST A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY.
OUR HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
SPREADS EAST WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE ALONG THE GULF COAST. TOGETHER THESE
RIDGES WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.
THERE REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DEEPENING THE MEAN TROUGH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS
TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE CANADIAN IS PERHAPS THE FARTHER
SOUTH AND WETTEST OVER OUR CWA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA THURSDAY AND
REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTH. RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER OUR CWA SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA. NORMAL
LOWS RUN 69-71F AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 91-92F. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND.  /22/

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING, QUICKLY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE. SHRA WHICH
HAS BEEN ONGOING AROUND HBG OVERNIGHT WILL DECREASE AROUND DAYBREAK
AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MORE
ISOLATED SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEZ TO HBG CORRIDOR DURING THE
DAYTIME. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       89  67  92  73 /   0   0  13  21
MERIDIAN      89  60  91  71 /   7   0   9  15
VICKSBURG     89  65  90  73 /   0   0  14  22
HATTIESBURG   89  69  90  74 /  25  13  30  28
NATCHEZ       87  70  88  74 /   8   9  29  26
GREENVILLE    89  67  91  73 /   0   0   9  29
GREENWOOD     88  63  90  73 /   0   0   9  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/22





000
FXUS64 KJAN 280207 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
907 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND WX GRIDS FOR THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND
LATEST FRONTAL POSITION. ALSO ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE DISSIPATING EARLY THIS EVENING
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA THAT REDEVELOP AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
MOST PART. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE HBG AREA WITH SOME MVFR CATEGORY STRATUS POSSIBLE
FARTHER NORTH. EXPECT STRATUS TO MIX UPWARD AND DISSIPATE DURING THE
MID/LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL SATURDAY AFTN/EVNG -
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED AFTN TSRA IN THE HBG AREA. /EC/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION... THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT IS NOW FINALLY STARTING TO
OOZE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ITSELF IS TRIGGERING RELATIVELY FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
BULK OF THE ACTION IS SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH
IS FOCUSED. THE SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED NATURE OF FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP STORMS FROM GETTING AS VIGOROUS AS THEY
OTHERWISE MIGHT WITH SHOWERS RELATIVELY ISOLATED IN ALL BUT SOUTHERN
ZONES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING A STRAY SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT CONSIDERING ANOMALOUS LEVELS OF WIND FLOW AND SHEAR IN THE
ATMOSPHERE CURRENTLY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE HWO DUE TO SOMEWHAT TAME INSTABILITY AND OTHER
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE.

LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW EXPECT THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH INTO THE REGION BEFORE STALLING SOMEWHAT IN
THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ZONES. ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MOST OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TOMORROW SHOULD BE WELL
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ITSELF...WITH ONLY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR REALLY HAVING ANY RISK OF SHOWERS (AND NOT A
TERRIBLY GREAT RISK AT THAT). TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL
PROBABLY BE THE LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MODELS AGREE THAT THE TEMPORARILY-STALLED
FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE COAST WILL BEGIN RETURNING WITH FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PERTURBED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT MY NORTHERN ZONES WILL START
HAVING A RISK OF BEING AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES RIDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR THE WHOLE OF OUR REGION BEING AFFECTED BY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE
TUESDAY...AND THIS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW
IMPROVING ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES BY THAT TIME. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND ULTIMATE PREFERRED TRACK OF
SOUTHEAST-PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT KEEPING THE HWO CLEAR. HOWEVER...THIS UNCERTAINTY MAY BE
CLEARED UP ENOUGH IN THE NEXT SHIFT OR TWO FOR THIS OUTLOOK TO
CHANGE. STAY TUNED. /BB/

LONGER TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...WEDNESDAY INTO THE
THURSDAY THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN. THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
SWING ACROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY
WILL STALL ACROSS OUR NORTH THURSDAY AND MOVE BACK NORTH OF OUR CWA
FRIDAY. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS EXPECTED IN
OUR NORTH. NORMAL LOWS RUN 69-71F AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 91-92F.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER OUR CWA. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  89  68  90 /  11   8   6  17
MERIDIAN      68  88  63  91 /  19  10   5  11
VICKSBURG     67  89  65  90 /   7   7   6  18
HATTIESBURG   71  89  68  90 /  22  24  13  28
NATCHEZ       70  86  70  89 /  19  18  11  31
GREENVILLE    67  90  66  92 /   3   2   6  12
GREENWOOD     66  88  64  91 /   3   2   3  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KJAN 280207 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
907 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND WX GRIDS FOR THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND
LATEST FRONTAL POSITION. ALSO ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE DISSIPATING EARLY THIS EVENING
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA THAT REDEVELOP AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
MOST PART. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE HBG AREA WITH SOME MVFR CATEGORY STRATUS POSSIBLE
FARTHER NORTH. EXPECT STRATUS TO MIX UPWARD AND DISSIPATE DURING THE
MID/LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL SATURDAY AFTN/EVNG -
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED AFTN TSRA IN THE HBG AREA. /EC/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION... THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT IS NOW FINALLY STARTING TO
OOZE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ITSELF IS TRIGGERING RELATIVELY FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
BULK OF THE ACTION IS SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH
IS FOCUSED. THE SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED NATURE OF FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP STORMS FROM GETTING AS VIGOROUS AS THEY
OTHERWISE MIGHT WITH SHOWERS RELATIVELY ISOLATED IN ALL BUT SOUTHERN
ZONES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING A STRAY SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT CONSIDERING ANOMALOUS LEVELS OF WIND FLOW AND SHEAR IN THE
ATMOSPHERE CURRENTLY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE HWO DUE TO SOMEWHAT TAME INSTABILITY AND OTHER
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE.

LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW EXPECT THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH INTO THE REGION BEFORE STALLING SOMEWHAT IN
THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ZONES. ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MOST OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TOMORROW SHOULD BE WELL
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ITSELF...WITH ONLY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR REALLY HAVING ANY RISK OF SHOWERS (AND NOT A
TERRIBLY GREAT RISK AT THAT). TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL
PROBABLY BE THE LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MODELS AGREE THAT THE TEMPORARILY-STALLED
FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE COAST WILL BEGIN RETURNING WITH FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PERTURBED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT MY NORTHERN ZONES WILL START
HAVING A RISK OF BEING AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES RIDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR THE WHOLE OF OUR REGION BEING AFFECTED BY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE
TUESDAY...AND THIS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW
IMPROVING ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES BY THAT TIME. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND ULTIMATE PREFERRED TRACK OF
SOUTHEAST-PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT KEEPING THE HWO CLEAR. HOWEVER...THIS UNCERTAINTY MAY BE
CLEARED UP ENOUGH IN THE NEXT SHIFT OR TWO FOR THIS OUTLOOK TO
CHANGE. STAY TUNED. /BB/

LONGER TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...WEDNESDAY INTO THE
THURSDAY THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN. THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
SWING ACROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY
WILL STALL ACROSS OUR NORTH THURSDAY AND MOVE BACK NORTH OF OUR CWA
FRIDAY. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS EXPECTED IN
OUR NORTH. NORMAL LOWS RUN 69-71F AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 91-92F.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER OUR CWA. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  89  68  90 /  11   8   6  17
MERIDIAN      68  88  63  91 /  19  10   5  11
VICKSBURG     67  89  65  90 /   7   7   6  18
HATTIESBURG   71  89  68  90 /  22  24  13  28
NATCHEZ       70  86  70  89 /  19  18  11  31
GREENVILLE    67  90  66  92 /   3   2   6  12
GREENWOOD     66  88  64  91 /   3   2   3  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 280207 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
907 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND WX GRIDS FOR THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND
LATEST FRONTAL POSITION. ALSO ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE DISSIPATING EARLY THIS EVENING
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA THAT REDEVELOP AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
MOST PART. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING IFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE HBG AREA WITH SOME MVFR CATEGORY STRATUS POSSIBLE
FARTHER NORTH. EXPECT STRATUS TO MIX UPWARD AND DISSIPATE DURING THE
MID/LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL SATURDAY AFTN/EVNG -
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED AFTN TSRA IN THE HBG AREA. /EC/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION... THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT IS NOW FINALLY STARTING TO
OOZE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ITSELF IS TRIGGERING RELATIVELY FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
BULK OF THE ACTION IS SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH
IS FOCUSED. THE SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED NATURE OF FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP STORMS FROM GETTING AS VIGOROUS AS THEY
OTHERWISE MIGHT WITH SHOWERS RELATIVELY ISOLATED IN ALL BUT SOUTHERN
ZONES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING A STRAY SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT CONSIDERING ANOMALOUS LEVELS OF WIND FLOW AND SHEAR IN THE
ATMOSPHERE CURRENTLY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE HWO DUE TO SOMEWHAT TAME INSTABILITY AND OTHER
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE.

LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW EXPECT THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH INTO THE REGION BEFORE STALLING SOMEWHAT IN
THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ZONES. ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MOST OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TOMORROW SHOULD BE WELL
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ITSELF...WITH ONLY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR REALLY HAVING ANY RISK OF SHOWERS (AND NOT A
TERRIBLY GREAT RISK AT THAT). TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL
PROBABLY BE THE LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MODELS AGREE THAT THE TEMPORARILY-STALLED
FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE COAST WILL BEGIN RETURNING WITH FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PERTURBED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT MY NORTHERN ZONES WILL START
HAVING A RISK OF BEING AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES RIDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR THE WHOLE OF OUR REGION BEING AFFECTED BY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE
TUESDAY...AND THIS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW
IMPROVING ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES BY THAT TIME. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND ULTIMATE PREFERRED TRACK OF
SOUTHEAST-PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT KEEPING THE HWO CLEAR. HOWEVER...THIS UNCERTAINTY MAY BE
CLEARED UP ENOUGH IN THE NEXT SHIFT OR TWO FOR THIS OUTLOOK TO
CHANGE. STAY TUNED. /BB/

LONGER TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...WEDNESDAY INTO THE
THURSDAY THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN. THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
SWING ACROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY
WILL STALL ACROSS OUR NORTH THURSDAY AND MOVE BACK NORTH OF OUR CWA
FRIDAY. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS EXPECTED IN
OUR NORTH. NORMAL LOWS RUN 69-71F AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 91-92F.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER OUR CWA. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  89  68  90 /  11   8   6  17
MERIDIAN      68  88  63  91 /  19  10   5  11
VICKSBURG     67  89  65  90 /   7   7   6  18
HATTIESBURG   71  89  68  90 /  22  24  13  28
NATCHEZ       70  86  70  89 /  19  18  11  31
GREENVILLE    67  90  66  92 /   3   2   6  12
GREENWOOD     66  88  64  91 /   3   2   3  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KJAN 272124
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
420 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION... THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT IS NOW FINALLY STARTING TO
OOZE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ITSELF IS TRIGGERING RELATIVELY FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
BULK OF THE ACTION IS SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH
IS FOCUSED. THE SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED NATURE OF FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP STORMS FROM GETTING AS VIGOROUS AS THEY
OTHERWISE MIGHT WITH SHOWERS RELATIVELY ISOLATED IN ALL BUT SOUTHERN
ZONES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING A STRAY SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT CONSIDERING ANOMALOUS LEVELS OF WIND FLOW AND SHEAR IN THE
ATMOSPHERE CURRENTLY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE HWO DUE TO SOMEWHAT TAME INSTABILITY AND OTHER
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE.

LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW EXPECT THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH INTO THE REGION BEFORE STALLING SOMEWHAT IN
THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ZONES. ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MOST OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TOMORROW SHOULD BE WELL
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ITSELF...WITH ONLY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR REALLY HAVING ANY RISK OF SHOWERS (AND NOT A
TERRIBLY GREAT RISK AT THAT). TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL
PROBABLY BE THE LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MODELS AGREE THAT THE TEMPORARILY-STALLED
FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE COAST WILL BEGIN RETURNING WITH FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PERTURBED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT MY NORTHERN ZONES WILL START
HAVING A RISK OF BEING AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES RIDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR THE WHOLE OF OUR REGION BEING AFFECTED BY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE
TUESDAY...AND THIS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW
IMPROVING ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES BY THAT TIME. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND ULTIMATE PREFERRED TRACK OF
SOUTHEAST-PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT KEEPING THE HWO CLEAR. HOWEVER...THIS UNCERTAINTY MAY BE
CLEARED UP ENOUGH IN THE NEXT SHIFT OR TWO FOR THIS OUTLOOK TO
CHANGE. STAY TUNED. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...THE COMBINATION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION AND LOW CUMULUS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DELTA REGION...WILL KEEP A MIX OF MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT
TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION FROM NOW THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
BETWEEN 17-26 KNOTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND BRIEF BUT
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.  WHILE CURRENTLY MORE FOCUSED OVER EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...KMEI AND KHBG...CONVECTION WILL WANE AFTER
SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.  CONVECTION WILL ALSO COME TO AN
END IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT`S PASSAGE THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS...BUT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS IN IT`S WAKE.  THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND
3 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

LONGER TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...WEDNESDAY INTO THE
THURSDAY THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN. THERE
ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY
DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS OUR NORTH THURSDAY AND MOVE
BACK NORTH OF OUR CWA FRIDAY. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED IN OUR NORTH. NORMAL LOWS RUN 69-71F AND NORMAL
HIGHS RUN 91-92F. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER
OUR CWA. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  89  68  90 /  21   8   6  17
MERIDIAN      67  88  63  91 /  34  10   5  11
VICKSBURG     65  89  65  90 /  17   7   6  18
HATTIESBURG   70  89  68  90 /  56  24  13  28
NATCHEZ       70  86  70  89 /  33  18  11  31
GREENVILLE    66  90  66  92 /   8   2   6  12
GREENWOOD     65  88  64  91 /  10   2   3  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/19/22




000
FXUS64 KJAN 272124
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
420 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION... THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT IS NOW FINALLY STARTING TO
OOZE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ITSELF IS TRIGGERING RELATIVELY FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
BULK OF THE ACTION IS SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH
IS FOCUSED. THE SOMEWHAT DISJOINTED NATURE OF FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP STORMS FROM GETTING AS VIGOROUS AS THEY
OTHERWISE MIGHT WITH SHOWERS RELATIVELY ISOLATED IN ALL BUT SOUTHERN
ZONES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING A STRAY SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT CONSIDERING ANOMALOUS LEVELS OF WIND FLOW AND SHEAR IN THE
ATMOSPHERE CURRENTLY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE HWO DUE TO SOMEWHAT TAME INSTABILITY AND OTHER
FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE.

LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW EXPECT THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH INTO THE REGION BEFORE STALLING SOMEWHAT IN
THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ZONES. ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MOST OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TOMORROW SHOULD BE WELL
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ITSELF...WITH ONLY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR REALLY HAVING ANY RISK OF SHOWERS (AND NOT A
TERRIBLY GREAT RISK AT THAT). TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL
PROBABLY BE THE LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MODELS AGREE THAT THE TEMPORARILY-STALLED
FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE COAST WILL BEGIN RETURNING WITH FLOW ALOFT
REMAINING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PERTURBED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT MY NORTHERN ZONES WILL START
HAVING A RISK OF BEING AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES RIDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR THE WHOLE OF OUR REGION BEING AFFECTED BY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE
TUESDAY...AND THIS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW
IMPROVING ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES BY THAT TIME. FOR NOW THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND ULTIMATE PREFERRED TRACK OF
SOUTHEAST-PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT KEEPING THE HWO CLEAR. HOWEVER...THIS UNCERTAINTY MAY BE
CLEARED UP ENOUGH IN THE NEXT SHIFT OR TWO FOR THIS OUTLOOK TO
CHANGE. STAY TUNED. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...THE COMBINATION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION AND LOW CUMULUS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DELTA REGION...WILL KEEP A MIX OF MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT
TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION FROM NOW THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
BETWEEN 17-26 KNOTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND BRIEF BUT
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.  WHILE CURRENTLY MORE FOCUSED OVER EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...KMEI AND KHBG...CONVECTION WILL WANE AFTER
SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.  CONVECTION WILL ALSO COME TO AN
END IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT`S PASSAGE THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS...BUT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS IN IT`S WAKE.  THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND
3 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

LONGER TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...WEDNESDAY INTO THE
THURSDAY THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN. THERE
ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY
DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS OUR NORTH THURSDAY AND MOVE
BACK NORTH OF OUR CWA FRIDAY. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED IN OUR NORTH. NORMAL LOWS RUN 69-71F AND NORMAL
HIGHS RUN 91-92F. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER
OUR CWA. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  89  68  90 /  21   8   6  17
MERIDIAN      67  88  63  91 /  34  10   5  11
VICKSBURG     65  89  65  90 /  17   7   6  18
HATTIESBURG   70  89  68  90 /  56  24  13  28
NATCHEZ       70  86  70  89 /  33  18  11  31
GREENVILLE    66  90  66  92 /   8   2   6  12
GREENWOOD     65  88  64  91 /  10   2   3  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/19/22





000
FXUS64 KJAN 271517 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1015 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE... AN UNSEASONABLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH IS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY CURRENTLY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING DEPICT HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS (1.75 TO 2 INCH PW VALUES) POOLED AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WHICH IS HELPING FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION SUGGESTS A FEW DIFFERENT SOURCES OF ATMOSPHERIC LIFT TODAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH...BUT THESE SOURCES ARE NOT
REALLY IN PHASE. THE LATTER FACT WILL MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT
WITH FINE DETAIL HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS STILL
HIGH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE REGION WILL AT LEAST SEE A SHOWER BEFORE
THE DAY IS OUT. MAIN ALTERATIONS FROM PREVIOUS WERE TO RAISE POPS A
BIT IN EAST-CENTRAL MS (AND HIGH TEMPS CONVERSELY LOWERED A BIT
THERE) DUE TO HRRR INSISTENCE OF HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION
THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING SHOWERS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AND CONFINED MAINLY TO
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE COLD FRONT ITSELF SINKS INTO THE HEART OF THE
CWA. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...NOTHING IN OUR MORNING SOUNDING
ANALYSIS POINTS TO MENTIONING SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH STORMS IN THE
HWO. CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE A BIT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
JUXTAPOSED IN SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WE WILL BE
WATCHING THOSE AREAS FOR AT LEAST A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT POTENTIAL
FOR ANY TRULY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED A GREAT DEAL BY THE POOR
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...THE COMBINATION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION AND VARIABLE
CEILING HEIGHTS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY...WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT
TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION FROM NOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN
17-26 KNOTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND BRIEF BUT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.  WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST
BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS...BUT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 3 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A COLD FRONT IS NOW
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH REGION AND WILL ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING
OVERNIGHT ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM THE ARKLATEX EASTWARD INTO
THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. THOUGH NONE OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN SEVERE,
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW PROLIFIC LIGHTNING PRODUCERS AND TRAINING OF
HEAVIER CONVECTION WHICH NECESSITATED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING. I`M
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY LOSE STEAM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS WE CROSS THROUGH THE NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY MINIMUM. HOWEVER,
THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HELP INITIATE NEW CONVECTION
FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, THE BEST CHANCE OF NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. WHILE
SOME STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS UPPER FORCING INCREASES
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHES 30 KTS, LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT ALONG THE 98
CORRIDOR. A SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN, WITH PWATS
DROPPING TO BELOW AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION, EVEN AS TEMPS RISE TO NEAR
90 DURING THE DAY. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AND
POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE IN THE 60S
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. /DL/

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...COME MONDAY AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL BE IN PLACE. OUR CWA WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO BE DROPPING OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT DAYBREAK. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA DURING THE DAY BUT THE
SHORTWAVE WILL HELP SEND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES BY TUESDAY MORNING. PWATS WILL START OUT AROUND ONE INCH FOR
MOST OF OUR CWA MONDAY MORNING BUT INCREASE TO AN INCH AND A HALF BY
MONDAY EVENING TO FUEL ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AND OVER
OUR SOUTH. THE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH WILL BE DUE IN PART TO THE
APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH WILL BE DUE IN
PART TO THE SEA BREEZE. GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS AREAWIDE IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVE OVER THE AREA. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE BACK OVER THE
CWA WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND PWATS AROUND AN INCH
AND THREE QUARTERS. WEDNESDAY INTO THE THURSDAY THE AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS OUR REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO HELP SUPPORT
ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS OUR
NORTH THURSDAY AND MOVE BACK NORTH OF OUR CWA FRIDAY. GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS EXPECTED IN OUR NORTH. NORMAL LOWS
RUN 69-71F AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 91-92F. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER OUR CWA. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  68  89  68 /  66  25   6   1
MERIDIAN      84  68  88  63 /  75  28   7   0
VICKSBURG     87  67  89  66 /  59  20   6   1
HATTIESBURG   89  72  91  68 /  70  48  18  10
NATCHEZ       87  69  86  69 /  69  39  10  10
GREENVILLE    86  66  89  66 /  46   9   0   0
GREENWOOD     84  65  87  65 /  53  11   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/19/DL/22/




000
FXUS64 KJAN 271517 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1015 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE... AN UNSEASONABLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH IS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY CURRENTLY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING DEPICT HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS (1.75 TO 2 INCH PW VALUES) POOLED AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WHICH IS HELPING FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION SUGGESTS A FEW DIFFERENT SOURCES OF ATMOSPHERIC LIFT TODAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH...BUT THESE SOURCES ARE NOT
REALLY IN PHASE. THE LATTER FACT WILL MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT
WITH FINE DETAIL HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS STILL
HIGH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE REGION WILL AT LEAST SEE A SHOWER BEFORE
THE DAY IS OUT. MAIN ALTERATIONS FROM PREVIOUS WERE TO RAISE POPS A
BIT IN EAST-CENTRAL MS (AND HIGH TEMPS CONVERSELY LOWERED A BIT
THERE) DUE TO HRRR INSISTENCE OF HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION
THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING SHOWERS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AND CONFINED MAINLY TO
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE COLD FRONT ITSELF SINKS INTO THE HEART OF THE
CWA. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...NOTHING IN OUR MORNING SOUNDING
ANALYSIS POINTS TO MENTIONING SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH STORMS IN THE
HWO. CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE A BIT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
JUXTAPOSED IN SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WE WILL BE
WATCHING THOSE AREAS FOR AT LEAST A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT POTENTIAL
FOR ANY TRULY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED A GREAT DEAL BY THE POOR
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...THE COMBINATION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION AND VARIABLE
CEILING HEIGHTS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY...WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT
TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION FROM NOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN
17-26 KNOTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND BRIEF BUT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.  WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST
BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS...BUT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 3 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A COLD FRONT IS NOW
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH REGION AND WILL ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING
OVERNIGHT ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM THE ARKLATEX EASTWARD INTO
THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. THOUGH NONE OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN SEVERE,
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW PROLIFIC LIGHTNING PRODUCERS AND TRAINING OF
HEAVIER CONVECTION WHICH NECESSITATED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING. I`M
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY LOSE STEAM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS WE CROSS THROUGH THE NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY MINIMUM. HOWEVER,
THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HELP INITIATE NEW CONVECTION
FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, THE BEST CHANCE OF NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. WHILE
SOME STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS UPPER FORCING INCREASES
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHES 30 KTS, LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT ALONG THE 98
CORRIDOR. A SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN, WITH PWATS
DROPPING TO BELOW AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION, EVEN AS TEMPS RISE TO NEAR
90 DURING THE DAY. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AND
POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE IN THE 60S
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. /DL/

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...COME MONDAY AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL BE IN PLACE. OUR CWA WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO BE DROPPING OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT DAYBREAK. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA DURING THE DAY BUT THE
SHORTWAVE WILL HELP SEND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES BY TUESDAY MORNING. PWATS WILL START OUT AROUND ONE INCH FOR
MOST OF OUR CWA MONDAY MORNING BUT INCREASE TO AN INCH AND A HALF BY
MONDAY EVENING TO FUEL ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AND OVER
OUR SOUTH. THE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH WILL BE DUE IN PART TO THE
APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH WILL BE DUE IN
PART TO THE SEA BREEZE. GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS AREAWIDE IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVE OVER THE AREA. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE BACK OVER THE
CWA WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND PWATS AROUND AN INCH
AND THREE QUARTERS. WEDNESDAY INTO THE THURSDAY THE AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS OUR REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO HELP SUPPORT
ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS OUR
NORTH THURSDAY AND MOVE BACK NORTH OF OUR CWA FRIDAY. GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS EXPECTED IN OUR NORTH. NORMAL LOWS
RUN 69-71F AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 91-92F. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER OUR CWA. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  68  89  68 /  66  25   6   1
MERIDIAN      84  68  88  63 /  75  28   7   0
VICKSBURG     87  67  89  66 /  59  20   6   1
HATTIESBURG   89  72  91  68 /  70  48  18  10
NATCHEZ       87  69  86  69 /  69  39  10  10
GREENVILLE    86  66  89  66 /  46   9   0   0
GREENWOOD     84  65  87  65 /  53  11   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/19/DL/22/





000
FXUS64 KJAN 271517 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1015 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE... AN UNSEASONABLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH IS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY CURRENTLY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING DEPICT HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS (1.75 TO 2 INCH PW VALUES) POOLED AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...WHICH IS HELPING FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SITUATION SUGGESTS A FEW DIFFERENT SOURCES OF ATMOSPHERIC LIFT TODAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH...BUT THESE SOURCES ARE NOT
REALLY IN PHASE. THE LATTER FACT WILL MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT
WITH FINE DETAIL HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS STILL
HIGH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE REGION WILL AT LEAST SEE A SHOWER BEFORE
THE DAY IS OUT. MAIN ALTERATIONS FROM PREVIOUS WERE TO RAISE POPS A
BIT IN EAST-CENTRAL MS (AND HIGH TEMPS CONVERSELY LOWERED A BIT
THERE) DUE TO HRRR INSISTENCE OF HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION
THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING SHOWERS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AND CONFINED MAINLY TO
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE COLD FRONT ITSELF SINKS INTO THE HEART OF THE
CWA. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...NOTHING IN OUR MORNING SOUNDING
ANALYSIS POINTS TO MENTIONING SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH STORMS IN THE
HWO. CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE A BIT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
JUXTAPOSED IN SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WE WILL BE
WATCHING THOSE AREAS FOR AT LEAST A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT POTENTIAL
FOR ANY TRULY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED A GREAT DEAL BY THE POOR
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...THE COMBINATION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION AND VARIABLE
CEILING HEIGHTS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY...WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT
TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION FROM NOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN
17-26 KNOTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND BRIEF BUT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.  WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST
BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS...BUT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 3 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A COLD FRONT IS NOW
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH REGION AND WILL ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING
OVERNIGHT ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH FROM THE ARKLATEX EASTWARD INTO
THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. THOUGH NONE OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN SEVERE,
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW PROLIFIC LIGHTNING PRODUCERS AND TRAINING OF
HEAVIER CONVECTION WHICH NECESSITATED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING. I`M
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY LOSE STEAM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS WE CROSS THROUGH THE NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY MINIMUM. HOWEVER,
THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HELP INITIATE NEW CONVECTION
FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, THE BEST CHANCE OF NEW DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. WHILE
SOME STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS UPPER FORCING INCREASES
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHES 30 KTS, LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT ALONG THE 98
CORRIDOR. A SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN, WITH PWATS
DROPPING TO BELOW AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION, EVEN AS TEMPS RISE TO NEAR
90 DURING THE DAY. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AND
POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE IN THE 60S
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. /DL/

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...COME MONDAY AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL BE IN PLACE. OUR CWA WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO BE DROPPING OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT DAYBREAK. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA DURING THE DAY BUT THE
SHORTWAVE WILL HELP SEND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES BY TUESDAY MORNING. PWATS WILL START OUT AROUND ONE INCH FOR
MOST OF OUR CWA MONDAY MORNING BUT INCREASE TO AN INCH AND A HALF BY
MONDAY EVENING TO FUEL ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH AND OVER
OUR SOUTH. THE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH WILL BE DUE IN PART TO THE
APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH WILL BE DUE IN
PART TO THE SEA BREEZE. GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS AREAWIDE IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVE OVER THE AREA. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE BACK OVER THE
CWA WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND PWATS AROUND AN INCH
AND THREE QUARTERS. WEDNESDAY INTO THE THURSDAY THE AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS OUR REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO HELP SUPPORT
ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS OUR
NORTH THURSDAY AND MOVE BACK NORTH OF OUR CWA FRIDAY. GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS EXPECTED IN OUR NORTH. NORMAL LOWS
RUN 69-71F AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 91-92F. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER OUR CWA. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  68  89  68 /  66  25   6   1
MERIDIAN      84  68  88  63 /  75  28   7   0
VICKSBURG     87  67  89  66 /  59  20   6   1
HATTIESBURG   89  72  91  68 /  70  48  18  10
NATCHEZ       87  69  86  69 /  69  39  10  10
GREENVILLE    86  66  89  66 /  46   9   0   0
GREENWOOD     84  65  87  65 /  53  11   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/19/DL/22/




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