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000
FXUS64 KJAN 311545 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1045 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A BAND OF CLOUDS WITH IT BUT RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO OUR DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A
0.65 INCH PW VALUE ON THE 12Z KJAN SOUNDING. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE 1030MB SFC HIGH DROPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT .
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-20MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS TO 25MPH
BEHIND THE FRONT. GOING FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE AND ONLY SMALL
CHANGES WERE NEEDED. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL AGAIN BE ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
MORE DETAILS ON THIS WILL COME DURING THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON/EVE WILL BE WITH WINDS. LOOK
FOR N WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE N HALF WITH PEAK WINDS BETWEEN
19-02Z FOR ALL AREAS. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-20 WILL LIKELY SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS MORE IN THE 22-02Z PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT THERE COULD BE A SMALL WINDOW OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
FAR N...OVERALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 3.0 TO 4.0 KFT ON ANY
CEILINGS. /CME/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AND TURNING COLDER THAN NORMAL. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED A LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE
THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION
WERE NOTED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE BUT NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN OUR
CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST AND CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND BRING OUR CWA A SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR THAT
WILL LEAD TO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THIS WEEKEND.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS...A >1030MB CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON HOLDING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WHILE
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TOPS OUT NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DRAWS CLOSER TONIGHT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX BUT IT APPEARS THE WIND WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND PROVIDE MIXING. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT LOWER BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE AND NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING FOR A PORTION OF
OUR CWA. OUR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE SOUTH AND WEST. PATCHY FROST WILL
BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE. SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL NEED TO BE PROTECTED
TONIGHT AND WE WILL CARRY THIS MENTION IN THE HWO. THE CLOSED LOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING WHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OVER OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OVER OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS WILL RESULT AND ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OF OUR
COLD DRY AIRMASS. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND MORE OF OUR CWA WILL BOTTOM OUT AT OR BELOW FREEZING.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY
SUNDAY. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY WITH STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND WARM SOUTHEAST FLOW.

THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. THE GFS/ECWMF ARE
VERY SIMILAR TO THERE SOLUTIONS BY MIDWEEK AS THEY BOTH CUT OFF A
LOW OVER WEST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AND DRAG A WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BOTH OF THE MODELS NOW
INDICATE VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BUILD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND KEEP THE UPPER LOW
STATIONARY OVER TEXAS. CONSIDERING HOW THE MODELS HANDLE UPPER
LOWS...WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD./15/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  33  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      72  32  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     71  32  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   73  34  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       73  33  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    65  32  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     65  30  54  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>033-036>039-044>046-051-052.

LA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

28/CME/15/22







000
FXUS64 KJAN 310931
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
420 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AND TURNING COLDER THAN NORMAL. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED A LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE
THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION
WERE NOTED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE BUT NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN OUR
CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST AND CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND BRING OUR CWA A SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR THAT
WILL LEAD TO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THIS WEEKEND.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS...A >1030MB CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON HOLDING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WHILE
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TOPS OUT NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DRAWS CLOSER TONIGHT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX BUT IT APPEARS THE WIND WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND PROVIDE MIXING. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT LOWER BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE AND NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING FOR A PORTION OF
OUR CWA. OUR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE SOUTH AND WEST. PATCHY FROST WILL
BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE. SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL NEED TO BE PROTECTED
TONIGHT AND WE WILL CARRY THIS MENTION IN THE HWO. THE CLOSED LOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING WHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OVER OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OVER OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS WILL RESULT AND ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OF OUR
COLD DRY AIRMASS. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND MORE OF OUR CWA WILL BOTTOM OUT AT OR BELOW FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY
SUNDAY. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY WITH STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND WARM SOUTHEAST FLOW.

THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. THE GFS/ECWMF ARE
VERY SIMILAR TO THERE SOLUTIONS BY MIDWEEK AS THEY BOTH CUT OFF A
LOW OVER WEST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AND DRAG A WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BOTH OF THE MODELS NOW
INDICATE VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BUILD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND KEEP THE UPPER LOW
STATIONARY OVER TEXAS. CONSIDERING HOW THE MODELS HANDLE UPPER
LOWS...WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD./15/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
SOME STRATOCUMULUS WILL DEVELOP 17Z AND MAY BECOME BROKEN AROUND
GTR/MEI...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 3500 FT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND BECOME SUSTAINED 15 TO
20KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON. /26/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  34  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      71  32  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     71  32  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   74  35  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       71  33  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    64  32  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     63  30  55  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>033-036>039-044>046-051-052.

LA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

22/15/22










000
FXUS64 KJAN 310147 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
847 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES DRY COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SW AR
AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
EXIST WITH AROUND 0.5 INCH PWS AREAWIDE. DUE TO SOME ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THE N...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT
EXPECTING THESE TO IMPACT LOWS TONIGHT. WV IMAGERY INDICATES A S/WV
MOVING THROUGH E AR. AS THIS AND ANOTHER STRONG S/WV OVER NRN MN
MOVES SE AND GRADUALLY PHASES WITH THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...EXPECT THE FRONT TO THE W TO MOVE
THROUGH AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO
GRADUALLY TO BUILD TO THE SE. DUE TO A STRONG INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN THE DELTA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OVERALL...LOWS LOOK
GOOD OVERNIGHT. MADE SMALL TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY
GRIDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION... ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SCT-BKN ALTOCUMULUS OVER
GLH-GWO-GTR BEFORE 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BY 31/17Z AND MAY BECOME BROKEN
AROUND GTR/MEI...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 3500 FT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY CALM OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY 31/17Z WITH SUSTAINED 15 AND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS COMMON
IN THE AFTERNOON. /26/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION FOLLOWING YESTERDAYS COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. THE 12Z KJAN SOUNDING SHOWED 0.36 INCH PW VALUES OVER
THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ONLY REINFORCE THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR
FIRST FREEZE FOR SOME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY LIMIT JUST HOW COLD WE GET. WHILE FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SOME PLACES...THIS SUSTAINED WIND WILL ALSO LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD
FROST WILL BE. IT LIKELY WOULD BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S THANKS TO DECENT CAA. ANOTHER NIGHT
OF MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE 1030MB SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH CALMER WINDS OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS
LIKELY WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
WIDESPREAD FROST MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICS. /28/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND
WARM SOUTHEAST FLOW. THINGS WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY WITH A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PLANES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE HANGS ON
OVER THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE DELTA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THERE SOLUTIONS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE BOUNDARY DRYING THINGS
OUT THURSDAY...BUT ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW OVER WEST TEXAS AND KEEPS THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       46  69  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      40  71  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     44  71  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   44  74  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       48  71  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    49  64  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     46  63  30  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/26/28/15








000
FXUS64 KJAN 310147 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
847 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES DRY COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SW AR
AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
EXIST WITH AROUND 0.5 INCH PWS AREAWIDE. DUE TO SOME ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THE N...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT
EXPECTING THESE TO IMPACT LOWS TONIGHT. WV IMAGERY INDICATES A S/WV
MOVING THROUGH E AR. AS THIS AND ANOTHER STRONG S/WV OVER NRN MN
MOVES SE AND GRADUALLY PHASES WITH THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...EXPECT THE FRONT TO THE W TO MOVE
THROUGH AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO
GRADUALLY TO BUILD TO THE SE. DUE TO A STRONG INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN THE DELTA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OVERALL...LOWS LOOK
GOOD OVERNIGHT. MADE SMALL TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY
GRIDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION... ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME SCT-BKN ALTOCUMULUS OVER
GLH-GWO-GTR BEFORE 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BY 31/17Z AND MAY BECOME BROKEN
AROUND GTR/MEI...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 3500 FT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY CALM OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY 31/17Z WITH SUSTAINED 15 AND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS COMMON
IN THE AFTERNOON. /26/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION FOLLOWING YESTERDAYS COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. THE 12Z KJAN SOUNDING SHOWED 0.36 INCH PW VALUES OVER
THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ONLY REINFORCE THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR
FIRST FREEZE FOR SOME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY LIMIT JUST HOW COLD WE GET. WHILE FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SOME PLACES...THIS SUSTAINED WIND WILL ALSO LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD
FROST WILL BE. IT LIKELY WOULD BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S THANKS TO DECENT CAA. ANOTHER NIGHT
OF MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE 1030MB SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH CALMER WINDS OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS
LIKELY WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
WIDESPREAD FROST MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICS. /28/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND
WARM SOUTHEAST FLOW. THINGS WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY WITH A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PLANES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE HANGS ON
OVER THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE DELTA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THERE SOLUTIONS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE BOUNDARY DRYING THINGS
OUT THURSDAY...BUT ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW OVER WEST TEXAS AND KEEPS THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       46  69  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      40  71  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     44  71  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   44  74  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       48  71  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    49  64  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     46  63  30  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/26/28/15








000
FXUS64 KJAN 302121
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
421 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION FOLLOWING YESTERDAYS COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. THE 12Z KJAN SOUNDING SHOWED 0.36 INCH PW VALUES OVER
THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ONLY REINFORCE THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR
FIRST FREEZE FOR SOME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY LIMIT JUST HOW COLD WE GET. WHILE FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SOME PLACES...THIS SUSTAINED WIND WILL ALSO LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD
FROST WILL BE. IT LIKELY WOULD BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S THANKS TO DECENT CAA. ANOTHER NIGHT
OF MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE 1030MB SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH CALMER WINDS OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS
LIKELY WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
WIDESPREAD FROST MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO AND GRAPHICS. /28/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND
WARM SOUTHEAST FLOW. THINGS WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY WITH A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PLANES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST
OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE HANGS ON
OVER THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE DELTA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THERE SOLUTIONS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE BOUNDARY DRYING THINGS
OUT THURSDAY...BUT ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW OVER WEST TEXAS AND KEEPS THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD./15/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  A DRY...COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS FRONT. /19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       46  69  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      40  71  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     44  71  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   44  74  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       48  71  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    49  64  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     46  63  30  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/15/19







000
FXUS64 KJAN 301544 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1044 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...A PLEASANT FALL DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION FOLLOWING
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT PASSAGE. 12Z KJAN SOUNDING SHOWED A DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.36 INCHES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1022MB
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES
AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS TODAY THROUGH UPPER 60S MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE WHERE MORNING TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ON THE COOLER SIDE.
GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR CURRENT
TRENDS WERE NEEDED. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 3-8
KNOTS.  THESE WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING CALM
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. /19/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF
WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS HAS SETTLED OVER
OUR CWA. THE 00Z THU JAN SOUNDING HAD A PW OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH. THE BLENDED TOTAL PW PRODUCT SHOWS PWS LESS THAN A HALF INCH
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR DELTA REGION. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD
A 1022MB RIDGE AXIS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS HAD A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE RESULTING DEEP NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA TODAY. UNDER NEAR FULL INSOLATION AND
WEAK CAA AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING OF OUR DRY AIRMASS TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
NIGHT OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT TONIGHT A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA
AND CLOSE OFF FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR SOUTH TOWARD OUR
CWA. THE ASSOCIATED >1030MB CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOLDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF TOPS OUT NEAR
NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX FRIDAY
EVENING ALLOWING THE WIND TO DECOUPLE. NEAR IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING
THIS COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON WITH THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF LIGHT FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA. THE GFSMOS MORNING LOWS
FOR SATURDAY WERE AGAIN AMONG THE LOWEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE BULK
OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE EAST OF OUR CWA. OUR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY
SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE
SOUTH AND WEST. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE. SENSITIVE
VEGETATION WILL NEED TO BE PROTECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE WILL CARRY
THIS MENTION IN THE HWO. /22/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A COOL DAY WILL BE ON TAP WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY
SUNDAY. EXPECT ONE MORE COLD NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW
TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 DEGREES OR POSSIBLY THE UPPER 20S. THIS COULD
BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN THIS FALL THUS FAR.

EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SUNNY
SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH
STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND WARM SOUTHEAST FLOW. THINGS WILL CHANGE
ON TUESDAY WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLANES AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY ON TUESDAY AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE HANGS ON OVER THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE DELTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THERE
SOLUTIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
BOUNDARY DRYING THINGS OUT THURSDAY...BUT ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW OVER
WEST TEXAS AND KEEPS THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  45  71  33 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      73  39  72  31 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     73  45  71  32 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   75  43  76  35 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       73  48  73  34 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    72  48  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     71  45  65  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/19/15/22







000
FXUS64 KJAN 300853
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
350 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF
WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS HAS SETTLED OVER
OUR CWA. THE 00Z THU JAN SOUNDING HAD A PW OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH. THE BLENDED TOTAL PW PRODUCT SHOWS PWS LESS THAN A HALF INCH
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR DELTA REGION. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD
A 1022MB RIDGE AXIS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS HAD A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE RESULTING DEEP NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA TODAY. UNDER NEAR FULL INSOLATION AND
WEAK CAA AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING OF OUR DRY AIRMASS TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
NIGHT OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT TONIGHT A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA
AND CLOSE OFF FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR SOUTH TOWARD OUR
CWA. THE ASSOCIATED >1030MB CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOLDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF TOPS OUT NEAR
NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX FRIDAY
EVENING ALLOWING THE WIND TO DECOUPLE. NEAR IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING
THIS COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON WITH THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF LIGHT FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA. THE GFSMOS MORNING LOWS
FOR SATURDAY WERE AGAIN AMONG THE LOWEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE BULK
OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE EAST OF OUR CWA. OUR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY
SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE
SOUTH AND WEST. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE. SENSITIVE
VEGETATION WILL NEED TO BE PROTECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE WILL CARRY
THIS MENTION IN THE HWO. /22/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A COOL DAY WILL BE ON TAP WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY
SUNDAY. EXPECT ONE MORE COLD NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW
TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 DEGREES OR POSSIBLY THE UPPER 20S. THIS COULD
BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN THIS FALL THUS FAR.

EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SUNNY
SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH
STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND WARM SOUTHEAST FLOW. THINGS WILL CHANGE
ON TUESDAY WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLANES AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY ON TUESDAY AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE HANGS ON OVER THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE DELTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THERE
SOLUTIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
BOUNDARY DRYING THINGS OUT THURSDAY...BUT ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW OVER
WEST TEXAS AND KEEPS THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD./15/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT. VFR CONDS WL CONT FRIDAY BUT STRONGER GUSTY NORTH WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTN. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  45  71  33 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      73  39  72  31 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     73  45  71  32 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   75  43  76  35 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       73  48  73  34 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    72  48  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     71  45  65  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/15/22










000
FXUS64 KJAN 300157 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
857 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
QUIET NIGHT IN STORE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 40S WHILE DEWPOINTS IN S MS NEAR THE FRONT ARE IN THE
MID 50S/LOW 60S. 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN AS PWATS AT KJAN HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND ~0.7 INCHES WITH LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH AT KLZK. 1022MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AND
LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO CLEAR NIGHT
AND CALM WINDS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S. OTHER THAN
SMALL CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/SKY GRIDS...REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /26/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

EXPECT DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE CWA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. LOTS OF
SUNSHINE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S. DRY AND COOL AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. /27/

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

COOLER THAN NORMAL AND DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN WARMER THAN
NORMAL WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. COME
FRIDAY MORNING A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
ROCKIES AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE IN
PLACE. MODELS INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE CLOSING OFF FRIDAY MORNING
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR SOUTH TOWARD OUR CWA. THE ASSOCIATED HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RESULTING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOLDING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHILE THE
SOUTHERN ZONES TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX FRIDAY EVENING BUT THE WIND MAY NOT TOTALLY
DECOUPLE BY MORNING AND MAINTAIN SOME MIXING. OTHERWISE...NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING OF OUR COOL DRY AIRMASS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30S BY MORNING. THESE WILL BE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE SEASON WITH PATCHY LIGHT FROST POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA.
SATURDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER OUR CWA AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH LIGHTER WIND THAN ON FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 50S AT MOST SITES. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL AS RIDGING
ALOFT. THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING
AS ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING IS EXPECTED. MORNING
LOWS WILL BE BACK IN THE 30S AREAWIDE AND OUR NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS MIGHT SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
SEASON. LIGHT RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT NORMAL HIGHS RUN IN THE LOWER 70S. NORMAL LOWS RUN IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SITES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO OUR CWA. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
BEGIN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER BAJA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODEL CONSENSUS DROPS THE WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTHWEST AS THE
CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST TOWARD WEST TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
MOISTURE DRAWN NORTH FROM THE CLOSED LOW WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       44  73  49  71 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      40  72  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     41  74  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   46  75  44  76 /   4   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       45  72  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    44  74  49  67 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     41  72  46  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/26/27/22








000
FXUS64 KJAN 292055
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
355 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

EXPECT DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE CWA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. LOTS OF
SUNSHINE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S. DRY AND COOL AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. /27/

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

COOLER THAN NORMAL AND DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN WARMER THAN
NORMAL WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. COME
FRIDAY MORNING A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
ROCKIES AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE IN
PLACE. MODELS INDICATE A POTENT SHORTWAVE CLOSING OFF FRIDAY MORNING
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR SOUTH TOWARD OUR CWA. THE ASSOCIATED HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RESULTING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOLDING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHILE THE
SOUTHERN ZONES TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX FRIDAY EVENING BUT THE WIND MAY NOT TOTALLY
DECOUPLE BY MORNING AND MAINTAIN SOME MIXING. OTHERWISE...NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING OF OUR COOL DRY AIRMASS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30S BY MORNING. THESE WILL BE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE SEASON WITH PATCHY LIGHT FROST POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA.
SATURDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER OUR CWA AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH LIGHTER WIND THAN ON FRIDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 50S AT MOST SITES. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL AS RIDGING
ALOFT. THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING
AS ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING IS EXPECTED. MORNING
LOWS WILL BE BACK IN THE 30S AREAWIDE AND OUR NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS MIGHT SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
SEASON. LIGHT RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT NORMAL HIGHS RUN IN THE LOWER 70S. NORMAL LOWS RUN IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SITES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO OUR CWA. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
BEGIN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER BAJA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODEL CONSENSUS DROPS THE WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTHWEST AS THE
CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST TOWARD WEST TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
MOISTURE DRAWN NORTH FROM THE CLOSED LOW WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY. /22/


&&

.AVIATION...THE COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. BEHIND THE FRONT...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NORTH
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO BETWEEN 3-5 KNOTS THIS EVENING...AND REMAIN SO
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. /19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       44  73  49  71 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      40  72  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     41  74  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   46  75  44  76 /   6   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       45  72  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    44  74  49  67 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     41  72  46  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 291516 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1016 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE LATE THIS AM ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTH. ONLY
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST WERE TO THE HOURLY TEMPS...AND TO REDUCE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS NW ZONES. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDING ON A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY FROM JUST SOUTH OF A KMEI TO KJAN TO KHEZ
LINE...WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.  LOW
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BRING A BRIEF
REDUCTION OF BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE PROCESS.  BEHIND
THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR. /19/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/TSTORM BAND MOVING
THROUGH REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH FULL SUNSHINE.

AS OF 08Z, COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A TUPELO, MS TO MONROE, LA
LINE WITH A MORE POTENT LINEAR TSTORM BAND RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AREA. THIS MORE ROBUST SECTION (WHERE
BETTER DIVERGENCE IS LOCATED) WILL SHIFT EAST OVER NEXT HOUR WITH
EVEN WEAKER SUPPORTED SHOWER ACTIVITY TRAILING BACK WSW ALONG AND
BEHIND THE STRUNG OUT BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN DELTA. THESE
SHOWERS OVER DELTA INTO LA WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE AS
THEY SHIFT EAST DUE TO DYNAMIC FORCING OUT PACING THE FRONT. FEEL
ISO/SCT SHOWERS THROUGH 6AM-NOON WILL BE BEST BET AND WENT WITH
20-40% FOR MOST OF REGION AND THINKING NW DELTA WILL BE CLEAR OF
PRECIP BY THAT TIME. BY THIS AFTERNOON, ONLY SOME ISO/SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG/BEHIND FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH HWY 84
CORRIDOR WITH CLEARING OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH HALF FROM BEHIND.
WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 15-20 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTN IN DELTA BEHIND
FRONT AS CAA MIXING GETS GOING. WENT TOWARDS COOLER EC/MET MOS FOR
HIGHS TODAY GIVEN EARLY CLOUDS AND PROGGED 12-15C RAW NWP H925 TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE FULL SUN IN NORTH HALF.

EXPECT CLEAR SKIES ALL OF THURSDAY AND SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH WITH FULL SUN WITH LIGHT COOL NORTH
WINDS. LOWS WILL ON THE CRISP SIDE; FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
AND MODERATE A COUPLE DEGREES BY FRIDAY MORNING. /ALLEN/

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

COOLER THAN NORMAL AND DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN WARMER THAN
NORMAL WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. COME
FRIDAY MORNING A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
ROCKIES AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE IN
PLACE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL
CLOSE OFF FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DROP
SOUTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SEND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR SOUTH TOWARD OUR CWA. THE
ASSOCIATED >1030MB CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOLDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHILE THE SOUTHERN ZONES TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL IN
THE LOWER 70S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX FRIDAY EVENING BUT
THE WIND MAY NOT TOTALLY DECOUPLE BY MORNING AND MAINTAIN SOME
MIXING. OTHERWISE...NEAR IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING OF OUR COOL DRY
AIRMASS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S BY MORNING. THESE WILL BE
THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WITH PATCHY LIGHT FROST
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT`S RUN...THE
LATEST GFSMOS MORNING LOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WERE AMONG THE
LOWEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND A BIT TOO COOL. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR MORNING LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER OUR CWA AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH LIGHTER WIND THAN ON FRIDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 50S AT MOST SITES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL AS RIDGING ALOFT. THE
COLDEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER
NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING IS EXPECTED. MORNING LOWS WILL BE
BACK IN THE 30S AREAWIDE AND OUR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS MIGHT SEE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. LIGHT RETURN
FLOW IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BECOME
CENTERED OVER OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT NORMAL HIGHS
RUN IN THE LOWER 70S. NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SITES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO OUR
CWA. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BEGIN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR
CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER BAJA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR
CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS DROPS THE WEAK COLD FRONT INTO
OUR NORTHWEST AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST TOWARD WEST TEXAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE DRAWN NORTH FROM THE CLOSED LOW WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  45  72  45 /  36   2   0   5
MERIDIAN      72  44  71  40 /  43   4   0   5
VICKSBURG     73  43  74  45 /  35   2   0   5
HATTIESBURG   76  48  75  43 /  32  10   0   5
NATCHEZ       74  46  73  47 /  36   5   0   5
GREENVILLE    70  44  71  47 /   9   0   0   5
GREENWOOD     69  41  71  47 /  14   0   0   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KJAN 290849
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/TSTORM BAND MOVING
THROUGH REGION THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH FULL SUNSHINE.

AS OF 08Z, COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A TUPELO, MS TO MONROE, LA
LINE WITH A MORE POTENT LINEAR TSTORM BAND RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AREA. THIS MORE ROBUST SECTION (WHERE
BETTER DIVERGENCE IS LOCATED) WILL SHIFT EAST OVER NEXT HOUR WITH
EVEN WEAKER SUPPORTED SHOWER ACTIVITY TRAILING BACK WSW ALONG AND
BEHIND THE STRUNG OUT BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN DELTA. THESE
SHOWERS OVER DELTA INTO LA WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE AS
THEY SHIFT EAST DUE TO DYNAMIC FORCING OUT PACING THE FRONT. FEEL
ISO/SCT SHOWERS THROUGH 6AM-NOON WILL BE BEST BET AND WENT WITH
20-40% FOR MOST OF REGION AND THINKING NW DELTA WILL BE CLEAR OF
PRECIP BY THAT TIME. BY THIS AFTERNOON, ONLY SOME ISO/SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG/BEHIND FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH HWY 84
CORRIDOR WITH CLEARING OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH HALF FROM BEHIND.
WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 15-20 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTN IN DELTA BEHIND
FRONT AS CAA MIXING GETS GOING. WENT TOWARDS COOLER EC/MET MOS FOR
HIGHS TODAY GIVEN EARLY CLOUDS AND PROGGED 12-15C RAW NWP H925 TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE FULL SUN IN NORTH HALF.

EXPECT CLEAR SKIES ALL OF THURSDAY AND SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH WITH FULL SUN WITH LIGHT COOL NORTH
WINDS. LOWS WILL ON THE CRISP SIDE; FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
AND MODERATE A COUPLE DEGREES BY FRIDAY MORNING. /ALLEN/

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

COOLER THAN NORMAL AND DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN WARMER THAN
NORMAL WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. COME
FRIDAY MORNING A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
ROCKIES AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE IN
PLACE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL
CLOSE OFF FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND DROP
SOUTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SEND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR SOUTH TOWARD OUR CWA. THE
ASSOCIATED >1030MB CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOLDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHILE THE SOUTHERN ZONES TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL IN
THE LOWER 70S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX FRIDAY EVENING BUT
THE WIND MAY NOT TOTALLY DECOUPLE BY MORNING AND MAINTAIN SOME
MIXING. OTHERWISE...NEAR IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING OF OUR COOL DRY
AIRMASS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S BY MORNING. THESE WILL BE
THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WITH PATCHY LIGHT FROST
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT`S RUN...THE
LATEST GFSMOS MORNING LOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WERE AMONG THE
LOWEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND A BIT TOO COOL. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR MORNING LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER OUR CWA AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH LIGHTER WIND THAN ON FRIDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 50S AT MOST SITES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL AS RIDGING ALOFT. THE
COLDEST MORNING OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER
NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING IS EXPECTED. MORNING LOWS WILL BE
BACK IN THE 30S AREAWIDE AND OUR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS MIGHT SEE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. LIGHT RETURN
FLOW IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BECOME
CENTERED OVER OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT NORMAL HIGHS
RUN IN THE LOWER 70S. NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SITES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO OUR
CWA. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BEGIN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR
CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER BAJA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR
CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS DROPS THE WEAK COLD FRONT INTO
OUR NORTHWEST AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST TOWARD WEST TEXAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE DRAWN NORTH FROM THE CLOSED LOW WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR ONGOING AT KHBG/KGLH/KGWO THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW
CIGS WITH OTHER SITES VFR. EXPECT REST OF SITES TO FALL INTO MVFR
STATUS TOWARDS DAWN AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION BRINGING
LOWER CIGS AND SCT SHRA. OVERALL COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH
AND WILL MAINTAIN VCSH FOR MOST SITES WITH SPECIFIC TIMING AS TRENDS
ARE MONITORED. VFR WILL RETURN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH AFTN AND
EVENING AS CLOUDS CLEAR. NRN TAF SITES ARE ON BACKSIDE OF FRONT AS
OF 830Z WITH NORTH WINDS NEAR 10 KT AND KJAN/KMEI AND SITES SOUTH
STILL HAVE SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KT. ALL SITES WILL SWITCH TO NORTH
THROUGH MORNING HOURS. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  45  72  45 /  36   2   0   5
MERIDIAN      72  44  71  40 /  43   4   0   5
VICKSBURG     73  43  74  45 /  35   2   0   5
HATTIESBURG   76  48  75  43 /  32  10   0   5
NATCHEZ       74  46  73  47 /  36   5   0   5
GREENVILLE    70  44  71  47 /   9   0   0   5
GREENWOOD     69  41  71  47 /  14   0   0   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/22







000
FXUS64 KJAN 290210 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
910 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPPER AIR/SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST
OF THE CONUS WITH A COLD FRONT AT THE SFC MOVING INTO SE AR/N MS.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY MOVES TOWARDS THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 12Z. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO ARKLAMISS DELTA TONIGHT AROUND 03-04Z...NEAR THE
NATCHEZ TRACE AROUND 06Z AND I-20 CORRIDOR AROUND 12Z. WITH THE FRONT
AND PRECIP MOVING SLOWER TO THE SE...KEPT MOST OF THE POPS IN THE FAR
NW DELTA UNTIL AFTER 06Z BEFORE CHANCES MOVE INTO CENTRAL/SE MS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LEFT PATCHY FOG IN UNTIL AFTER 12Z AS SOME MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME POTENTIAL LOW STRATUS/FOG IN
SE MS. ADJUSTED LOWS A DEGREE WARMER SE OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE DUE TO
HIGHER DEWPOINTS/SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. NRLY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WITH THE SLOW/STEADY S/SE PROGRESSION
OF THE SFC FRONT AS ASSOCIATED SHRA/ISO TSRA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
RIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONT...IFR CEILINGS WILL EXIST WITH
VIS REDUCTION BASED ON HEAVIER POCKETS OF PRECIP. LATEST DATA
SUGGESTS THAT MORE OF A MVFR CEILING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/SE
AREAS LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH THE FRONT WITH THE OVERALL TREND IN
PRECIP DIMINISHING AS WELL. RESTRICTED CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM
N TO S WITH ALL AREAS SEEING VFR CONDITIONS BY 17-18Z WED. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT TUE 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE
MISS VALLEY REGION. THE BETTER DYNAMICS WAS WELL NORTH OF THE
ARKLAMISS REGION. THIS UPPER TROUGH WAS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A POOL OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORTING FROM THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH REGION
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHERE PWATS WERE AROUND 1.5
INCHES. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED SOME INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WITH
THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST MS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY WRF AND SHORT
RANGE MODELS DOES NOT SHOW MUCH PROGRESS IN THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
PUSHING INTO THE REGION UNTIL THIS EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME LAPSE RATES AND SOME INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS SOME EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR
OF AROUND 35 KNOTS AND CAPES AROUND 2000 AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHERN REGION. SO WE MAY GET A FEW STRONG STORMS
WITH SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS IN THE NORTH. THUS SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WRF MODELS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL OF SOME PATCHY FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SO
PUT PATCHY FOR IN THE GRIDS. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. OUR SHOWER
CHANCES WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS COOLER AND
DRYER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. DESPITE NEAR FULL
INSOLATION AND THE DRIER AIRMASS...A COOL NORTH WIND WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY TOPPING OUT JUST INTO THE LOWER
70S. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO
OUR EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR EAST...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT
OF COOLER AIR WILL TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE ON LOWS AND
GMOS GUIDANCE ON HIGHS. AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERN WENT WITH A BLEND
OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT WITH A LOWER ADJUSTMENT IN THE
SOUTH. FOR WEDNESDAY ADJUSTED GMOS POPS ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
DAY. /17/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

DRY UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY. COME FRIDAY MORNING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED EAST OF THE REGION WITH A 1038MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN THE WAKE WEDNESDAY`S COLD
FRONT...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WITH PWS BELOW A HALF INCH WILL BE OVER
OUR CWA.  THE RESULTING NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND
A SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR OUR WAY BY THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY WHILE A SECOND STRONGER >1030MB
SURFACE HIGH DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULTING SURGE OF COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE OVER OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THE LATEST 12Z MODELS HAVE COME EVEN COOLER WITH SOME LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL AS SOME
FREEZING TEMPS IN THE NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SO SOME SPOTS MAY
GET THEIR FIRST FREEZE FOR THE FALL SEASON.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY BUT AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS FARTHER EAST...RIDGING ALOFT WILL SHIFT OVER
OUR REGION. THE LATEST GFS MOS WAS AMONG THE LOWEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AND 2-3STDS TOO COOL SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING SO HAVE LEANED
TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR CWA SUNDAY WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE RESULTING RETURN FLOW BENEATH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE
MOISTURE TO OUR CWA. A WARMING TREND WILL ACCOMPANY THE MOISTURE
INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CARRIED MONDAY
NIGHT AND MAINLY IN THE WEST. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF OUR CWA
UNTIL WEDNESDAY. /17/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       61  74  45  73 /  48  33   4   0
MERIDIAN      62  73  40  71 /  28  48   5   0
VICKSBURG     59  75  42  75 /  61  21   4   0
HATTIESBURG   63  78  47  75 /  22  40   6   0
NATCHEZ       62  75  46  74 /  42  25   4   0
GREENVILLE    57  72  45  74 /  88  19   4   0
GREENWOOD     56  72  42  72 /  89  21   4   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/CME/17/22








000
FXUS64 KJAN 281944
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
248 PM CDT TUE 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE
MISS VALLEY REGION. THE BETTER DYNAMICS WAS WELL NORTH OF THE
ARKLAMISS REGION. THIS UPPER TROUGH WAS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A POOL OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORTING FROM THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH REGION
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHERE PWATS WERE AROUND 1.5
INCHES. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED SOME INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WITH
THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST MS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY WRF AND SHORT RANGE MODELS
DOES NOT SHOW MUCH PROGRESS IN THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED PUSHING INTO
THE REGION UNTIL THIS EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LAPSE
RATES AND SOME INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS SOME EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR OF
AROUND 35 KNOTS AND CAPES AROUND 2000 AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE NORTHERN REGION. SO WE MAY GET A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH SOME BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS IN THE NORTH. THUS SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS OUR
FAR NORTHWEST AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. WRF MODELS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS SOME
POTENTIAL OF SOME PATCHY FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SO PUT
PATCHY FOR IN THE GRIDS. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. OUR SHOWER
CHANCES WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS COOLER AND
DRYER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. DESPITE NEAR FULL
INSOLATION AND THE DRIER AIRMASS...A COOL NORTH WIND WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY TOPPING OUT JUST INTO THE LOWER
70S. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS OUR CWA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO
OUR EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR EAST...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT
OF COOLER AIR WILL TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE ON LOWS AND
GMOS GUIDANCE ON HIGHS. AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERN WENT WITH A BLEND
OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT WITH A LOWER ADJUSTMENT IN THE
SOUTH. FOR WEDNESDAY ADJUSTED GMOS POPS ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE
DAY./17/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

DRY UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY. COME FRIDAY MORNING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED EAST OF THE REGION WITH A 1038MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN THE WAKE WEDNESDAY`S COLD
FRONT...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WITH PWS BELOW A HALF INCH WILL BE OVER
OUR CWA.  THE RESULTING NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND
A SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR OUR WAY BY THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY WHILE A SECOND STRONGER >1030MB
SURFACE HIGH DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RESULTING SURGE OF COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE OVER OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THE LATEST 12Z MODELS HAVE COME EVEN COOLER WITH SOME LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL AS SOME
FREEZING TEMPS IN THE NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SO SOME SPOTS MAY
GET THEIR FIRST FREEZE FOR THE FALL SEASON.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL SATURDAY BUT AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS FARTHER EAST...RIDGING ALOFT WILL SHIFT OVER
OUR REGION. THE LATEST GFS MOS WAS AMONG THE LOWEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AND 2-3STDS TOO COOL SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING SO HAVE LEANED
TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT
EAST OF OUR CWA SUNDAY WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE RESULTING RETURN FLOW BENEATH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE
MOISTURE TO OUR CWA. A WARMING TREND WILL ACCOMPANY THE MOISTURE
INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CARRIED MONDAY
NIGHT AND MAINLY IN THE WEST. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF OUR CWA
UNTIL WEDNESDAY. 17/22/

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND BEGINS MOVING INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION.  WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
PERIOD...BOTH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL LIKELY WAVER BETWEEN
IFR/VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PASSING SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS SITES AS THE FRONT ITSELF PUSHES THROUGH.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
TO AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY BEHIND IT. /19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       60  74  45  73 /  48  33   4   0
MERIDIAN      62  73  40  71 /  28  48   5   0
VICKSBURG     57  75  42  75 /  61  21   4   0
HATTIESBURG   62  78  47  75 /  22  40   6   0
NATCHEZ       61  75  46  74 /  42  25   4   0
GREENVILLE    57  72  45  74 /  88  19   4   0
GREENWOOD     56  72  42  72 /  89  21   4   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/19/22








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