000
FXUS62 KJAX 191333
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
933 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS SW GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH S SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN AS SMALL
SCALE BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. WILL
KEEP NUMEROUS POPS SE GA LATER THIS AFTN WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE
FOR NE FL. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS GIVEN STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO AROUND 90 COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL. CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTN WITH SCATTERED SHWRS EXPECTED. WILL USE VCTS AT ALL PORTS
18-02Z.
&&
.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH TOWARDS THE WATERS. ANOTHER NOCTURNAL SURGE FOR TONIGHT BUT
WINDS NOT AS STRONG AND NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL/WASH OUT ACROSS THE WATERS THU AND FRI. WINDS WILL BECOME
ONSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH
HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED EACH DAY.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 91 70 90 69 / 60 40 40 40
SSI 89 75 85 74 / 50 50 30 30
JAX 92 71 88 70 / 50 40 50 40
SGJ 90 74 87 74 / 50 40 50 50
GNV 93 70 90 70 / 40 30 50 50
OCF 93 71 92 71 / 30 30 50 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ALLEN/NELSON
000
FXUS62 KJAX 190805
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
400 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIG ACROSS
THE SE U.S. WHICH WILL ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO SE
GA BY LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN STALLING OUT ACROSS NE FL
ON THURSDAY DUE TO LOSS OF UPPER SUPPORT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE GA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONT. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW WITH AN ACTIVE WEST COAST
SEABREEZE...WARRANTS SCATTERED POPS ELSEWHERE. WHILE THERE IS
LITTLE RISK OF SEVERE WX...A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
COOL TEMPS ALOFT (-8 TO -9C). INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP
TEMPS IN CHECK...BUT SHOULD MAKE IT TO AT LEAST 90 ACROSS NE FL
AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN THERE. WILL KEEP LOW END SCATTERED POPS GOING ACROSS SE GA
AND EXTREME NE FL TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTH AND COMBINE WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALTHOUGH WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECTING AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS. WITH THE FRONT STALLED OUT
OVER NE FL ON THURSDAY...AND WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSING
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH END SCATTERED POPS
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH. HAVE OPTED TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE WETTER GFS/ECMWF OVER THE DRIER NAM.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY...00Z MODEL SUITE SHOWS SOME DIFFS ON HOW FAR SOUTH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL SAG INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE NAM
DRIVING IT DOWN INTO NE FL...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT NORTH OVER SE
GEORGIA AND THE ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE. HAVE TRIED TO BLEND THESE
SOLUTIONS BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE HIGHER POPS AROUND 50% ACROSS
NE FL AND 30-40% ACROSS SE GA. LIGHT/VARIABLE STEERING FLOW WILL
SUPPORT ACTIVE SEA BREEZE FRONTS ON BOTH COASTS AND NEAR CLIMO MAX
TEMPS AROUND 90 DEGREES.
WEEKEND...OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS IT SLOWLY WASHES OUT. THIS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE OFF THE ATLANTIC AND
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW THE HIGHEST POPS WILL END UP OVER
THE INLAND AREAS WITH OUTFLOWS/SEA BREEZE FRONTS DOMINATING THE
CONVECTION PATTERN. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO VALUES IN THE
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
MON/TUE/WED...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THIS WILL TWEAK POPS
DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE HIGHEST POPS INLAND FROM
THE COAST...MAINLY IN THE 30-40% RANGE AND MAINLY DURING THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO VALUES FROM THE
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT TAF SITES.
THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GOMEX STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME STRATUS AROUND 1000-1500 FEET TOWARD SUNRISE BUT HAVE
KEPT CONDS SCATTERED WITH CURRENT TAF SUITE. CU FIELD TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH MAY BRIEFLY TRIGGER MVFR CIGS BUT NOT
CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO TO INCLUDE YET. THE GENERAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND SCATTERED POPS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING ANY ACTIVITY
ALL THE WAY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN ALL TAF
LOCATIONS AFTER 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS THE WATERS. ANOTHER NOCTURNAL SURGE FOR TONIGHT
BUT WINDS NOT AS STRONG AND NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL/WASH OUT ACROSS THE WATERS THU-FRI. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH HEADLINES
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 90 70 90 69 / 60 40 40 40
SSI 88 75 85 74 / 50 50 30 30
JAX 91 71 88 70 / 50 40 50 40
SGJ 89 74 87 74 / 50 40 50 50
GNV 92 70 90 70 / 40 30 50 50
OCF 92 71 92 71 / 30 30 50 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
PP/JH
000
FXUS62 KJAX 190116
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
916 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...CONVECTION CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL AND SW
GA HAS WEAKENED THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND PASSAGE OF
UPPER SHORT WAVE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL SHIFT WEAKENING CONVECTION TO OUR NW INTO SE GA LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT ACTIVE DAY FOR SE GA ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT
SINKS SE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN FORECAST FOR SE GA TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOW CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL WE CAN GET A
BETTER FEEL FOR TIMING.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE
AND A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ZONES TONIGHT. NOCTURNAL SURGE WILL SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.
SEAS MAY TOP OUT AT 5 FEET NEAR THE 60 NM MARKER...OTHERWISE SEAS
WILL AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 73 90 71 91 / 30 50 40 50
SSI 76 87 75 86 / 30 50 50 30
JAX 73 90 71 90 / 20 50 40 50
SGJ 74 90 73 88 / 10 50 40 40
GNV 72 91 71 91 / 10 40 20 50
OCF 73 91 72 93 / 10 30 20 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/SHULER/MCALLISTER
000
FXUS62 KJAX 182156
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
556 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.CURRENTLY..
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS...WITH ATLANTIC RIDGING
EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH FL. ALOFT...RIDGING IS CENTERED OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND EXTENDS EASTWARD...WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH OF
THIS FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
WAS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION...AND
THIS FEATURE IS MOVING EASTWARD WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW. ATLANTIC
RIDGING HAS PROVIDED FOR A SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE OVER MOST OF
NORTHEAST FL AND SOUTHEAST GA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FL HAVE LARGELY DISSOLVED.
MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
REMAINED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GA. WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES PEAKED IN THE LOW/MID 90S TODAY. DRIER AIR
ALOFT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON...AND DEWPOINTS
HAVE MOSTLY FALLEN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 70 DEGREES...KEEPING
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN CHECK...BUT STILL NEAR 100 DEGREES.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WHICH WILL PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST GA BY LATE WED. SINCE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL GA
IS POISED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD...KEPT WIDELY SCATTERED POPS IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS FOR SOUTHEAST GA OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. NEAR CLIMO LOWS...LOW/MID 70S...ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
SOUTHEAST GA BY LATE WED. A MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING
FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH LATE MORNING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE...MIGRATING EASTWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. HAVE LEFT HIGH-END SCATTERED POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR ALL
OF SOUTHEAST GA AND FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 75
CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FL. INCREASING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAINFALL
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS CLOSER TO CLIMO...GENERALLY NEAR 90 TO THE
LOWER 90S. AS THE FRONT STALLS AND SLOWLY WEAKENS FROM WED NIGHT
THROUGH THURS NIGHT...EXPECT AT LEAST HIGH-END SCATTERED DIURNAL
COVERAGE ON THURS...WITH ACTIVITY SPILLING OVER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES PERSIST. NEAR CLIMO HIGHS
AND LOWS WILL CONTINUE AS A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS
OVER OUR REGION.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS TROPICAL
WAVE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES NEAR CLIMO
VALUES IN THE 30-40% RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SSI THROUGH 06Z.
OTHERWISE...IFR/LIFR CIGS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 500 FT ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 09Z-13Z AT GNV AND VQQ...WITH THESE CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE AT
JAX...CRG...AND SSI. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE AFTERNOON TAFS. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT GNV AND
VQQ LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHETHER SURFACE WINDS DECREASE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM JUST OFF THE
SURFACE UP THROUGH 10000 FEET...WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AND DECREASING TO 10-15 KTS AFTER 15Z. SURFACE WIND
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET...AND GUSTS NEAR 15
KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z ON WED AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
TONIGHT...AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SURGE THIS EVENING TO 15-20
KTS. SEAS OFFSHORE MAY APPROACH 5 FEET FOLLOWING THIS WIND SURGE
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. WINDS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
BRIEFLY EXCEED 15 KTS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING A PROLONGED SURGE. OUR LOCAL GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN ON
WED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH ARE
EXPECTED FROM FROM WED THROUGH AT LEAST FRI BEFORE THE FRONT
WEAKENS. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE ON THURS...AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR NORTHEAST.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 73 90 71 91 / 30 50 40 50
SSI 76 87 75 86 / 30 50 50 30
JAX 73 90 71 90 / 20 50 40 50
SGJ 74 90 73 88 / 10 50 40 40
GNV 72 91 71 91 / 10 40 20 50
OCF 73 91 72 93 / 10 30 20 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
NELSON/SANDRIK/MCALLISTER
000
FXUS62 KJAX 181304
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
904 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE
JACKSONVILLE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY TODAY AS AN AREA OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE
PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST BY A SYNOPTIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CEILING OR VISIBILITY ISSUES FORESEEN AT ANY OF THE
LOCAL FIELDS TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE BELOW SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. A
SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE PINNED CLOSE TO
THE COAST.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 91 73 90 71 / 30 40 50 30
SSI 89 76 87 75 / 20 30 50 40
JAX 93 73 90 71 / 10 20 50 50
SGJ 91 74 90 73 / 10 20 40 40
GNV 92 72 91 71 / 10 10 50 30
OCF 92 73 91 72 / 10 10 40 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SANDRIK/GUILLET
000
FXUS62 KJAX 180756
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
345 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...DRY AND HOT TODAY...
...SCATTERED STORMS FOR MID WEEK ON WITH FRONT IN THE AREA...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
TODAY...RIDGING IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY A BIT ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA...WITH SW FLOW AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH EAST COAST SEABREEZE ABSENT AND NO UPPER
DYNAMICS...WILL GO WITH NEAR NIL POPS MUCH OF THE DAY.
POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR INLAND SE GA BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE AS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SWING
SE TOWARDS THE AREA. WARM SW WINDS RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPS
REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...
INCLUDING THE COAST. HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100 IN
A FEW SPOTS.
TONIGHT...BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO GET ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE SE U.S. WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SE GA
BY LATE AT NIGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS SE GA
BUT NEAR NIL POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS
STILL LINGERS IN THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DIG ACROSS THE SE U.S. WHICH WILL ENABLE THE COLD FRONT TO
MOVE INTO NE FL...TO NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NE FL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO LOSS OF UPPER SUPPORT. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WARRANTS SCATTERED POPS...BUT POPS WILL
BE HIGHEST (50%) NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE
RISK OF SEVERE WX...A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT (-9C). INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TEMPS IN CHECK...BUT
SHOULD MAKE IT TO AT LEAST 90 ACROSS NE FL AND EVEN LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE SUN THERE. WILL KEEP
SCATTERED POPS GOING ACROSS NE FL AND COASTAL SE GA...NEAR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THU-FRI...OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND TSTM COVERAGE
AROUND 50% IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HAVE KEPT JUST BELOW
LIKELY COVERAGE FOR NOW. SEASONABLE HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED.
SAT-SUN-MON...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES
NEAR CLIMO VALUES IN THE 30-40% RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDS AT
LOCAL TAF SITES WITH RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 20% AND HAVE KEPT ANY
MENTION LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS VEER TO THE SW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT WITH APPROACH
OF FRONT AND MAY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE.
COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND WASH OUT ACROSS THE WATERS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY ON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 91 73 90 71 / 30 40 50 30
SSI 89 76 87 75 / 20 30 50 40
JAX 93 73 90 71 / 10 20 50 50
SGJ 91 74 90 73 / 10 20 40 40
GNV 92 72 91 71 / 10 10 50 30
OCF 92 73 91 72 / 10 10 40 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
PP/JH
000
FXUS62 KJAX 180057
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
855 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...EARLIER SEABREEZE TRIGGERED CONVECTION HAS DIED OUT
NEAR THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS SE GA
TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SMALL POP THERE. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND
DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM BECOMING STRONG
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. MOST SHOWER AND TSTM MISSED
TAF SITES TODAY. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE SSI TERMINAL COULD SEE A
SHOWER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. OTHERWISE LATE TONIGHT
BRIEF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT VQQ FROM 08Z-11Z. ON TUE...RAIN CHANCES
ARE BELOW NORMAL...AT OR BELOW 30%...SO LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF
PRECIP AT THIS TIME. WINDS ON TUE PREVAILING FROM THE SW AROUND 10
KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...SSE WINDS NEAR 15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT
TO SW OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 70 92 72 90 / 20 40 40 50
SSI 74 88 75 89 / 50 30 30 50
JAX 72 94 74 91 / 20 30 30 50
SGJ 72 91 75 89 / 30 30 30 50
GNV 69 91 71 90 / 10 30 20 40
OCF 70 91 72 90 / 10 20 10 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/SHASHY/WALKER
000
FXUS62 KJAX 171954
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
354 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIAL SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE...AND
ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA CLOSEST TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LATE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...MAXIMIZING LATE AFTN JUST INLAND OF THE COAST WITH
NUMEROUS POPS...AND SCATTERED FOR MOST OTHER AREAS. SHWRS/TSTMS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES TO
THE EAST AND HEATING IS LOST...WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VSBY
GRIDS INDICATE SOME FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS INTERIOR NE FL IN
GREATEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SO WILL INCLUDE LATE NIGHT EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING PATCHY FOG. DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG
FORMATION. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FAR
INLAND...TO THE LOWER/MID 70S COAST.
FOR TUESDAY...RIDGING IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY A BIT ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA...WITH MAINLY SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LESSER PRECIP COVERAGE...THUS WILL USE ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED POPS FOR NE FL TUESDAY AFTN...WITH A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE
ACROSS SE GA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT
UP IN THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
INLAND TO AROUND 90 ON THE COAST. DEWPOINT VALUES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY...THUS HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN
WELL UNDER HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...DRIVING ANOTHER
WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO GEORGIA. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...ALONG WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY...NECESSITATES
SCATTERED POPS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR SOUTHEAST GA ON
TUES NIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. LOWS SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO...OR IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND/MID 70S AT THE
COAST. A MODERATE AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL AGAIN RESULT IN AT
LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REGION-WIDE FOR WED...AND WE MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN FUTURE
FORECASTS DEPENDING ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MIGRATING
THROUGH THE REGION. UNTIL THAT TIMING BECOMES MORE CLEAR...WILL
STICK WITH NEAR CLIMO HIGHS FOR WED...NEAR 90 INLAND/UPPER 80S AT
THE COAST. WE WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH/SOUTH POP GRADIENT ON WED
NIGHT...AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO GEORGIA AND PROVIDES A LITTLE MORE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST GA. NEAR CLIMO
LOWS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT REGION-WIDE.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN LAYER (1000-500 MB) RIDING REMAINS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
FL LATER THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST
GA...REACHING THE STATE BORDER ON WED AND THEN STALLING/WASHING
OUT ACROSS NE FL THU-FRI. THE MEAN LAYER RIDGE MOVES BACK TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EACH DAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NE FL THU-FRI. AS THE MEAN LAYER RIDGE LIFTS
BACK TO THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL SEE A DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE INLAND AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVE. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
THU-SAT DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH NEAR CLIMO NIGHTTIME LOWS.
LONG-TERM MODELS DEPICT A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IMPACTING THE FL
PENINSULA ON SUN...WHICH MAY ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION LOCALLY.
DRIER AIR ALOFT IS THEN PROGGED TO ADVECT INTO OUR REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS. WILL
MAINTAIN NEAR CLIMO POPS/TEMPS FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
MODEL CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE AND DRYING
TREND FOLLOWING THE WAVE FOR SUN-TUES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
NEAR THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
AT EACH TERMINAL FOR A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY IN
REDUCED VISIBILITIES....AND GUSTY W/SW WINDS AS ACTIVITY GENERALLY
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARDS THE E/NE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS BY 02Z. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 5000 FT. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 03Z...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS FROM
JUST OFF THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 7000 FT AFTER 12Z.
&&
.MARINE...
SE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TNGT...AND TO THE
SW TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. S/SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
MIDWEEK...WITH THE TROUGH/FRONT EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE WATERS
LATE WEEK. HEADLINES ARE GENERALLY NOT ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SCEC DURING NOCTURNAL
SURGES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 70 92 72 90 / 50 40 40 50
SSI 74 88 75 89 / 40 30 30 50
JAX 72 94 74 91 / 40 30 30 50
SGJ 72 91 75 89 / 30 30 30 50
GNV 69 91 71 90 / 30 30 20 40
OCF 70 91 72 90 / 30 20 10 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ALLEN/NELSON/WALKER
000
FXUS62 KJAX 171316
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
916 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
QUIET CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
OFFSHORE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL GA INTO THE
EASTERN GULF WILL ENTER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS...ALONG
WITH SEABREEZE/SMALL SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. THINK INITIAL CONVECTION
WILL FIRE CLOSE TO THE COAST AND FAR INLAND CLOSER TO THE
SHORTWAVE EARLY THIS AFTN...FILLING ACROSS MOST AREAS BY LATE AFTN.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS MID MORNING WILL LIFT BY AFTN. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS SEABREEZES PUSHES INLAND AND
A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL USE VCTS FOR ALL
PORTS 17-18Z THROUGH THE AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW ENE OF THE REGION PROVIDING SE TO S WINDS FOR
TODAY. AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TUE/WED...WINDS WILL
BECOME SW INTO THURS. THE TROUGH/FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER
THE WATERS FRIDAY. NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK...ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SCEC DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 91 72 92 73 / 50 50 50 40
SSI 86 75 90 77 / 40 40 40 30
JAX 91 70 92 73 / 50 50 40 40
SGJ 87 73 90 73 / 40 40 30 30
GNV 91 69 92 72 / 30 30 30 20
OCF 91 70 92 73 / 30 20 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ALLEN
000
FXUS62 KJAX 170819
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
419 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SOUTHERLY TO SELY FLOW IS PUSHING WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION. TEMPS HAVE REMAINED IN THE 70S OVERNIGHT (EXCEPT NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER) AND EVEN UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE AIR MASS IS WARM AND
JUICY...AND LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC-BASED CAPE ABOVE 2000 J/KG
ALONG THE EAST COAST SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM N GA INTO THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL REACH OUR AREA ABOUT TIME OF
PEAK HEATING ENHANCING DIURNAL CONVECTION. DEEP SW TO WEST FLOW
TODAY WILL DRIVE SHOWERS/STORMS TOWARD THE EAST COAST. HOURLY
POPS WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY WITH ONGOING LATE NIGHT SHOWERS AND
TIMING OF SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. HAVE ISOLD POPS ALONG THE ENTIRE
EAST COAST BY MID MORNING. WEST COAST SBRZ WILL QUICKLY PUSH
INLAND AND HAVE SCTD POPS EAST OF I-75 THIS AFTN AND ISOLD WEST OF
I-75. WILL GO WITH HIGH END SCTD POPS ACROSS SE GA AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INTERACTS WITH DIURNAL HEATING. SHRA/TSTMS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE EVENING. PREVAILING WLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE
SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT.
TUE/TUE NIGHT...HI-RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS MOVING FROM APALACHEE
BAY TO THE EAST COAST MAINLY ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR TO STATE LINE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. ATLANTIC RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER FL PENINSULA THUS REDUCING POPS TO ISOLD
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED OVER SE GA
AND HAVE SCTD POPS THERE. THEN LATE AFTN...EXPECT MERGER OF SBRZ
NEAR THE EAST COAST TO ENERGIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND HAVE A BAND OF
SCTD SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING
OFFSHORE. HAVE ISOLD COVERAGE TUE NIGHT ACROSS SE GA AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY AFTN.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE MEAN LAYER (1000-500 MB) RIDGE GETS SHUNTED TO THE SE
OF THE AREA THIS WEEK WHILE A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH...
REACHING THE STATE BORDER ON WED AND THEN STALLING/WASHING
OUT ACROSS NE FL THU-FRI. THE MEAN LAYER RIDGE MOVES BACK
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EACH
DAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SE GA ON TUE-WED AND COASTAL
SE GA AND EXTREME NE FL THU-FRI. AS THE MEAN LAYER RIDGE
LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL SEE A DECREASE
IN SHOWERS AND STORMS AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE INLAND AREAS
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN WILL COOL TO NEAR CLIMO BY
LATER IN THE WEEK AS AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO.
.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HAVE OCNL MVFR VSBY/CIGS AT GNV TIL AROUND 12Z.
HAVE OCNL MVFR VSBY AT JAX...CRG...AND VQQ TIL AROUND 12Z.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS SEABREEZES PUSHES INLAND. HAVE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS AFT
17Z-18Z.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW ENE OF THE REGION PROVIDING SE TO S WINDS FOR
TODAY. AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TUE/WED...WINDS WILL
BECOME SW INTO THURS. THE TROUGH/FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER
THE WATERS BISECTING WIND DIRECTION ON FRIDAY. NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK...ALTHOUGH CONDS MAY BRIEFLY FLIRT WITH
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 91 72 92 73 / 50 50 50 40
SSI 86 75 90 77 / 40 40 40 30
JAX 91 70 92 73 / 50 50 40 40
SGJ 87 73 90 73 / 40 40 30 30
GNV 91 69 92 72 / 30 30 30 20
OCF 91 70 92 73 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
TRABERT/PETERSON/
000
FXUS62 KJAX 170145
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
945 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING
OVER INLAND NE FL (BASICALLY I-75 CORRIDOR) AS OF 930 PM WITH
ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE. MODEL GUIDANCE AND RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT
THIS CONVECTION MAY HANG AROUND FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS
WHILE SHIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE E BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE
WEAK REST OF THE NIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SRN MOST
ZONES WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE (PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES) IS LOCATED AND
WHERE WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS HELPING CONVECTION ALONG. WILL
ALLOW POPS TO DROP OFF SLOWER AND ADD PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS INLAND
NE FL BY EARLY MORNING DUE TO EARLIER HEAVY RAINS. MIN TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AT GNV IN SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL AROUND
03Z. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS FORM...MOST LIKELY AT GNV AND VQQ AFTER 05Z.
&&
.MARINE...SE WINDS WILL BECOME SSW MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS SOUTH. HOWEVER SEABREEZE FORMATION WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK TO
SW BY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK BECOMING LOW ON MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 69 92 69 92 / 10 50 50 40
SSI 75 88 73 90 / 10 40 40 30
JAX 71 90 72 92 / 10 50 50 20
SGJ 74 87 72 90 / 10 50 50 20
GNV 71 92 68 92 / 50 30 30 20
OCF 72 92 69 92 / 40 30 30 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/ZIBURA/WALKER
000
FXUS62 KJAX 161939
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
339 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.NEAR TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER LOSING
DIURNAL HEATING INPUT THIS EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL AID IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION INITIATION.
AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY MONDAY...THE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE
A RETURN WITH DEWPOINTS RISING BACK INTO THE 70 TO 75
RANGE...BEFORE MIXING OUT SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHER TEMPS CLOSER TO THE
BEACHES THAN TODAY DUE TO A MORE LIMITED SEA BREEZE PROGRESSION.
.SHORT TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES BEFORE SUNSET DUE TO A WEST/SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. OUR
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO BECOME MORE ZONAL...ADVECTING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND...WE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO HIGH-
END CHANCE FOR SOUTHEAST GA AND FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST FL DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY WANING BY LATE EVENING.
KEPT ISOLATED COVERAGE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE EVENT THAT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL GA. EXPECT LOWS TO FALL TO NEAR CLIMO REGION-WIDE...UPPER
60S INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST. ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL
STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY...ADVECTING DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO NORTHEAST
FL. ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR
NORTHEAST FL...AND WE LEFT WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE IN FOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO...GENERALLY LOWER 90S
INLAND AND NEAR 90 AT THE COAST DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS DELAYING THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. ISOLATED OVERNIGHT COVERAGE WAS MAINTAINED ON
TUES NIGHT FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH
NEAR CLIMO LOWS EXPECTED REGION-WIDE.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE MEAN LAYER (1000-500 MB) RIDGE GETS SHUNTED TO THE SE
OF THE AREA BY MIDWEEK WHILE A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH...
REACHING THE STATE BORDER ON WED AND THEN STALLING/WASHING OUT
ACROSS NE FL THU-FRI. THE MEAN LAYER RIDGE MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EACH DAY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SE
GA ON WED AND COASTAL SE GA AND EXTREME NE FL THU-FRI. AS THE
MEAN LAYER RIDGE LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND...A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THURS...THEN WILL COOL SLIGHTLY BY
FRI AS AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR
CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND
MAY IMPACT THE GNV TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z. WILL CARRY VCSH IN THE
TAF...BUT A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
00Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT IFR CIGS BETWEEN 500-900 FT TO DEVELOP AT GNV AND VQQ AFTER
08Z...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z. IFR CIGS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AT JAX...CRG...AND SSI...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO CURRENTLY INCLUDE IN THESE TAFS. CONDITIONS AT VQQ AND GNV
SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 13Z. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS
FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 4000 FT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
AFTER 00Z...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KTS AFTER 09Z.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS WEEK.
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
LITTLE HIGHER WINDS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY TOWARD WEEKS END.
RIP CURRENTS...LOW RISK ON MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 70 92 69 92 / 10 50 50 40
SSI 75 88 73 90 / 10 40 40 30
JAX 71 90 72 92 / 10 50 50 20
SGJ 74 87 72 90 / 10 50 50 20
GNV 71 92 68 92 / 30 30 30 20
OCF 72 92 69 92 / 30 30 30 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
STRUBLE/NELSON/WALKER
| 
