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000
FXUS62 KJAX 300657
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
257 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE
IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN GOMEX AS FLOW AS VEERED
A BIT MORE TO THE WEST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO DEVELOP SOME
ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE THE BIG BEND LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST HIGH RES MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED A BIT MOIST
SO WILL KEEP POPS ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED WITH INITIAL
ACTIVITY LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING TODAY. SOME LIGHT FOG
HAS DEVELOPED IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SOME RAINFALL TODAY...BUT
THINK SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIMITED.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...INITIAL ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL
WILL NUDGE EAST DURING THE MORNING...COMBINING WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NW TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTN. BY MID/LATE AFTN...THINK THE
GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS SE GA/EXTREME FL WITH COVERAGE
DECREASING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL. ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 IMMEDIATE COAST.
LINGERING ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA
WILL DECREASE BY LATE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WILL
PREVAIL.

WEDNESDAY...TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...BUT
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THUS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH SLIGHTER
GREATER CHANCES ACROSS SE GA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TUESDAY.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE  A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STORMS NEAR GULF COAST SPREADING INLAND
TOWARDS EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BERMUDA RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE FL PENINSULA AS THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DEAMPLIFIES.
WILL TRANSISTION TO A LIGHTER S AND SW FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN MORE
DIURNAL TYPE SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS MERGE. RISING
HEIGHTS RESULTS IN TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE MID 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 AT THE COAST. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WARMER READINGS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE AT GNV WHERE PREVAILING
MVFR/PERIODS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE IN
FOG. WITH SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTN...WILL USE VCTS
FOR ALL SITES 18-23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SOME TURNING
TO THE SOUTH BY LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. PERIODS OF CAUTION LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  71  93  73 /  40  30  40  20
SSI  89  75  89  77 /  30  20  30  30
JAX  92  74  93  73 /  40  20  40  20
SGJ  90  74  89  76 /  30  20  40  30
GNV  91  73  91  73 /  40  20  40  20
OCF  91  73  92  73 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/PETERSON




000
FXUS62 KJAX 300657
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
257 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE
IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN GOMEX AS FLOW AS VEERED
A BIT MORE TO THE WEST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO DEVELOP SOME
ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE THE BIG BEND LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST HIGH RES MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED A BIT MOIST
SO WILL KEEP POPS ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED WITH INITIAL
ACTIVITY LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING TODAY. SOME LIGHT FOG
HAS DEVELOPED IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SOME RAINFALL TODAY...BUT
THINK SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIMITED.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...INITIAL ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL
WILL NUDGE EAST DURING THE MORNING...COMBINING WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NW TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTN. BY MID/LATE AFTN...THINK THE
GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS SE GA/EXTREME FL WITH COVERAGE
DECREASING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL. ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 IMMEDIATE COAST.
LINGERING ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA
WILL DECREASE BY LATE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WILL
PREVAIL.

WEDNESDAY...TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...BUT
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THUS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH SLIGHTER
GREATER CHANCES ACROSS SE GA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TUESDAY.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE  A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STORMS NEAR GULF COAST SPREADING INLAND
TOWARDS EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BERMUDA RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE FL PENINSULA AS THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DEAMPLIFIES.
WILL TRANSISTION TO A LIGHTER S AND SW FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN MORE
DIURNAL TYPE SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS MERGE. RISING
HEIGHTS RESULTS IN TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE MID 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 AT THE COAST. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WARMER READINGS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE AT GNV WHERE PREVAILING
MVFR/PERIODS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE IN
FOG. WITH SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTN...WILL USE VCTS
FOR ALL SITES 18-23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SOME TURNING
TO THE SOUTH BY LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. PERIODS OF CAUTION LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  71  93  73 /  40  30  40  20
SSI  89  75  89  77 /  30  20  30  30
JAX  92  74  93  73 /  40  20  40  20
SGJ  90  74  89  76 /  30  20  40  30
GNV  91  73  91  73 /  40  20  40  20
OCF  91  73  92  73 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/PETERSON





000
FXUS62 KJAX 300133
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
933 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NE FL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHILE SE GA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX WILL RE-IGNITE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION WHICH WILL TRACK
INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD NE FL TOWARDS MORNING...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CONTAIN SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS INLD NE FL DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE E-NE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REST OF NE FL
AND SE GA...THEN INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND LINGERING IN THE SE
GA REGION DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL
GENERALLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH MAIN
IMPACTS GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH LIGHTNING/WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THEY
REACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE MAX HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER 90S AND POSSIBLY MERGE WITH A STATIONARY SEA BREEZE
FRONT RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES. STORM COVERAGE OVERALL ON TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE 30-50% RANGE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE MORNING
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF NE FL AND ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE BEACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND GNV
THROUGH 03Z. PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT VQQ
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT GNV AFTER 13Z...WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY TOWARDS 16Z. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY...A PROB30 GROUP WAS USED FOR GNV. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AT THE REMAINDER OF THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND HAVE INDICATED VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE AFTER 18Z. WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
EXPECTED BY 18Z AT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT...WITH HIGHEST
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN
THREAT THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  94  71  92 /   0  30  30  60
SSI  75  90  75  89 /  20  30  30  50
JAX  72  93  74  92 /  20  40  20  60
SGJ  74  92  75  89 /  20  30  20  60
GNV  72  92  72  91 /  30  40  20  60
OCF  72  92  73  91 /  40  40  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 300133
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
933 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NE FL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHILE SE GA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX WILL RE-IGNITE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION WHICH WILL TRACK
INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD NE FL TOWARDS MORNING...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CONTAIN SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS INLD NE FL DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE E-NE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REST OF NE FL
AND SE GA...THEN INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND LINGERING IN THE SE
GA REGION DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL
GENERALLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH MAIN
IMPACTS GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH LIGHTNING/WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THEY
REACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE MAX HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER 90S AND POSSIBLY MERGE WITH A STATIONARY SEA BREEZE
FRONT RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES. STORM COVERAGE OVERALL ON TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE 30-50% RANGE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE MORNING
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF NE FL AND ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE BEACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND GNV
THROUGH 03Z. PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT VQQ
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT GNV AFTER 13Z...WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY TOWARDS 16Z. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY...A PROB30 GROUP WAS USED FOR GNV. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AT THE REMAINDER OF THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND HAVE INDICATED VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE AFTER 18Z. WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
EXPECTED BY 18Z AT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT...WITH HIGHEST
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN
THREAT THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  94  71  92 /   0  30  30  60
SSI  75  90  75  89 /  20  30  30  50
JAX  72  93  74  92 /  20  40  20  60
SGJ  74  92  75  89 /  20  30  20  60
GNV  72  92  72  91 /  30  40  20  60
OCF  72  92  73  91 /  40  40  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALKER





000
FXUS62 KJAX 300133
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
933 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NE FL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHILE SE GA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX WILL RE-IGNITE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION WHICH WILL TRACK
INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD NE FL TOWARDS MORNING...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CONTAIN SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS INLD NE FL DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE E-NE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REST OF NE FL
AND SE GA...THEN INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND LINGERING IN THE SE
GA REGION DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL
GENERALLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH MAIN
IMPACTS GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH LIGHTNING/WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THEY
REACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE MAX HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER 90S AND POSSIBLY MERGE WITH A STATIONARY SEA BREEZE
FRONT RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES. STORM COVERAGE OVERALL ON TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE 30-50% RANGE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE MORNING
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF NE FL AND ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE BEACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND GNV
THROUGH 03Z. PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT VQQ
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT GNV AFTER 13Z...WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY TOWARDS 16Z. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY...A PROB30 GROUP WAS USED FOR GNV. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AT THE REMAINDER OF THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND HAVE INDICATED VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE AFTER 18Z. WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
EXPECTED BY 18Z AT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT...WITH HIGHEST
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN
THREAT THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  94  71  92 /   0  30  30  60
SSI  75  90  75  89 /  20  30  30  50
JAX  72  93  74  92 /  20  40  20  60
SGJ  74  92  75  89 /  20  30  20  60
GNV  72  92  72  91 /  30  40  20  60
OCF  72  92  73  91 /  40  40  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 291948
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
348 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WED...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CONVECTION RAPIDLY DECREASED ACROSS
NE FL EARLY THIS AFTN AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHED
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT WHICH WAS LINGERING
ROUGHLY FROM HOMERVILLE TO BRUNSWICK THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF OF THE FRONT COULD
STILL SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS THROUGH SUNSET.
HIGH TEMPS ONLY TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS NE FL DUE TO
PERSISTENT MID- HIGH CLOUDS...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
80S NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN WHERE DRIER AIR
INFILTRATED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH DEW PTS IN THE
LOWER 60S AT DQH AND AMG. AFTER MIDNIGHT  EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS TEMPS COOL INTO THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID 70S
RIVER BASIN/COAST...WITH A FEW SHOWERS PRESSING INLAND FROM THE
GULF COAST REGION FROM GNV/OCF THROUGH SUNRISE.

TUE & TUE NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWNSTREAM OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY LATE TUE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BACK WSW PUSHING
DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD OVER SE GA TUE AFTN...AND COMBINED
WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL AXIS EXPECT MORE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
COMPARED TO TODAY OVER SE GA WITH SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NE
FL. HIGH WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S. PRECIP WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET AS LOW FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
70S.

WED THROUGH THU NIGHT...MEAN LAYER TROUGH OVER GA WILL INCREASE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF DIURNAL PRECIPITATION WITH 500 MB TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE -8 TO -10 DEG C RANGE UNDER MOIST WSW FLOW OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ADVERTISED HIGH RAIN CHANCES AROUND 60% FIRST
MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF EACH MORNING THEN SPREADING INLAND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION
WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AT NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY GIVEN DYNAMICAL SUPPORT
FROM FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND HIGH INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO VALUES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 AND TRENDED A TAD LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH MON...

SYNOPSIS...MORE SEASONAL PRECIP PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

FRI-SUN...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
FRI AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE EDGES WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA FROM THE ATLANTIC. FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE HELD NORTH OF
THE AREA WITH A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ENABLING BOTH SEA
BREEZES TO PENETRATE INLAND. ADVERTISED NEAR CLIMO DIURNAL RAIN
CHANCES WITH BOTH SEA BREEZES DRIFTING INLAND WITH THE FOCUS FOR
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN I-75 AND THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. ABOVE CLIMO
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO
MID/UPPER 70S RIVER BASIN/COAST.

MON...MEAN RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF COAST REGION
WITH A DRIER AND MORE STABLE NNW FLOW EXPECTED OVER SE GA.
ADVERTISED BELOW NORMAL PRECIP WITH RAIN CHANCES ONLY AROUND 30%
WITH HOT TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SSI ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
A MEANDERING FRONT ACROSS SE GA. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE ESE OF FL TERMINALS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER CIRRUS CLOUDS AND LIGHT
WSW WINDS. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL EDGE INLAND FROM THE GULF
TUE MORNING AND NEAR GNV/SGJ BY MID-LATE MORNING AND INCLUDED VCSH
FOR BOTH SITES BETWEEN 13-15Z.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND WEAK SURFACE FRONTS
OVER THE GULF COAST REGION AND SOUTH GEORGIA. NOCTURNAL WIND
SURGES FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE-THU NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE.


RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED DISPERSIONS TUE AND WED OVER SE GA AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  92  71  92 /  10  30  30  60
SSI  75  89  75  89 /  20  30  30  50
JAX  72  91  74  92 /  10  50  20  60
SGJ  73  90  75  89 /  30  30  20  60
GNV  71  90  72  91 /  20  40  20  60
OCF  73  90  73  91 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/WALKER





000
FXUS62 KJAX 291948
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
348 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WED...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CONVECTION RAPIDLY DECREASED ACROSS
NE FL EARLY THIS AFTN AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHED
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT WHICH WAS LINGERING
ROUGHLY FROM HOMERVILLE TO BRUNSWICK THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF OF THE FRONT COULD
STILL SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS THROUGH SUNSET.
HIGH TEMPS ONLY TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS NE FL DUE TO
PERSISTENT MID- HIGH CLOUDS...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
80S NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN WHERE DRIER AIR
INFILTRATED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH DEW PTS IN THE
LOWER 60S AT DQH AND AMG. AFTER MIDNIGHT  EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS TEMPS COOL INTO THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID 70S
RIVER BASIN/COAST...WITH A FEW SHOWERS PRESSING INLAND FROM THE
GULF COAST REGION FROM GNV/OCF THROUGH SUNRISE.

TUE & TUE NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWNSTREAM OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY LATE TUE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BACK WSW PUSHING
DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD OVER SE GA TUE AFTN...AND COMBINED
WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL AXIS EXPECT MORE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
COMPARED TO TODAY OVER SE GA WITH SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NE
FL. HIGH WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S. PRECIP WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET AS LOW FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
70S.

WED THROUGH THU NIGHT...MEAN LAYER TROUGH OVER GA WILL INCREASE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF DIURNAL PRECIPITATION WITH 500 MB TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE -8 TO -10 DEG C RANGE UNDER MOIST WSW FLOW OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ADVERTISED HIGH RAIN CHANCES AROUND 60% FIRST
MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF EACH MORNING THEN SPREADING INLAND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION
WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AT NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY GIVEN DYNAMICAL SUPPORT
FROM FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND HIGH INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO VALUES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 AND TRENDED A TAD LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH MON...

SYNOPSIS...MORE SEASONAL PRECIP PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

FRI-SUN...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
FRI AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE EDGES WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA FROM THE ATLANTIC. FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE HELD NORTH OF
THE AREA WITH A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ENABLING BOTH SEA
BREEZES TO PENETRATE INLAND. ADVERTISED NEAR CLIMO DIURNAL RAIN
CHANCES WITH BOTH SEA BREEZES DRIFTING INLAND WITH THE FOCUS FOR
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN I-75 AND THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. ABOVE CLIMO
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO
MID/UPPER 70S RIVER BASIN/COAST.

MON...MEAN RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF COAST REGION
WITH A DRIER AND MORE STABLE NNW FLOW EXPECTED OVER SE GA.
ADVERTISED BELOW NORMAL PRECIP WITH RAIN CHANCES ONLY AROUND 30%
WITH HOT TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SSI ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
A MEANDERING FRONT ACROSS SE GA. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE ESE OF FL TERMINALS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER CIRRUS CLOUDS AND LIGHT
WSW WINDS. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL EDGE INLAND FROM THE GULF
TUE MORNING AND NEAR GNV/SGJ BY MID-LATE MORNING AND INCLUDED VCSH
FOR BOTH SITES BETWEEN 13-15Z.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND WEAK SURFACE FRONTS
OVER THE GULF COAST REGION AND SOUTH GEORGIA. NOCTURNAL WIND
SURGES FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE-THU NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE.


RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED DISPERSIONS TUE AND WED OVER SE GA AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  92  71  92 /  10  30  30  60
SSI  75  89  75  89 /  20  30  30  50
JAX  72  91  74  92 /  10  50  20  60
SGJ  73  90  75  89 /  30  30  20  60
GNV  71  90  72  91 /  20  40  20  60
OCF  73  90  73  91 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 291948
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
348 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WED...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CONVECTION RAPIDLY DECREASED ACROSS
NE FL EARLY THIS AFTN AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHED
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT WHICH WAS LINGERING
ROUGHLY FROM HOMERVILLE TO BRUNSWICK THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF OF THE FRONT COULD
STILL SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS THROUGH SUNSET.
HIGH TEMPS ONLY TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS NE FL DUE TO
PERSISTENT MID- HIGH CLOUDS...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
80S NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN WHERE DRIER AIR
INFILTRATED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH DEW PTS IN THE
LOWER 60S AT DQH AND AMG. AFTER MIDNIGHT  EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS TEMPS COOL INTO THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID 70S
RIVER BASIN/COAST...WITH A FEW SHOWERS PRESSING INLAND FROM THE
GULF COAST REGION FROM GNV/OCF THROUGH SUNRISE.

TUE & TUE NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWNSTREAM OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY LATE TUE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BACK WSW PUSHING
DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD OVER SE GA TUE AFTN...AND COMBINED
WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL AXIS EXPECT MORE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
COMPARED TO TODAY OVER SE GA WITH SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NE
FL. HIGH WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S. PRECIP WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET AS LOW FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
70S.

WED THROUGH THU NIGHT...MEAN LAYER TROUGH OVER GA WILL INCREASE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF DIURNAL PRECIPITATION WITH 500 MB TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE -8 TO -10 DEG C RANGE UNDER MOIST WSW FLOW OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ADVERTISED HIGH RAIN CHANCES AROUND 60% FIRST
MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF EACH MORNING THEN SPREADING INLAND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION
WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AT NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY GIVEN DYNAMICAL SUPPORT
FROM FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND HIGH INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO VALUES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 AND TRENDED A TAD LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH MON...

SYNOPSIS...MORE SEASONAL PRECIP PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

FRI-SUN...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
FRI AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE EDGES WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA FROM THE ATLANTIC. FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE HELD NORTH OF
THE AREA WITH A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ENABLING BOTH SEA
BREEZES TO PENETRATE INLAND. ADVERTISED NEAR CLIMO DIURNAL RAIN
CHANCES WITH BOTH SEA BREEZES DRIFTING INLAND WITH THE FOCUS FOR
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN I-75 AND THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. ABOVE CLIMO
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO
MID/UPPER 70S RIVER BASIN/COAST.

MON...MEAN RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF COAST REGION
WITH A DRIER AND MORE STABLE NNW FLOW EXPECTED OVER SE GA.
ADVERTISED BELOW NORMAL PRECIP WITH RAIN CHANCES ONLY AROUND 30%
WITH HOT TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SSI ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
A MEANDERING FRONT ACROSS SE GA. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE ESE OF FL TERMINALS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER CIRRUS CLOUDS AND LIGHT
WSW WINDS. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL EDGE INLAND FROM THE GULF
TUE MORNING AND NEAR GNV/SGJ BY MID-LATE MORNING AND INCLUDED VCSH
FOR BOTH SITES BETWEEN 13-15Z.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND WEAK SURFACE FRONTS
OVER THE GULF COAST REGION AND SOUTH GEORGIA. NOCTURNAL WIND
SURGES FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE-THU NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE.


RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED DISPERSIONS TUE AND WED OVER SE GA AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  92  71  92 /  10  30  30  60
SSI  75  89  75  89 /  20  30  30  50
JAX  72  91  74  92 /  10  50  20  60
SGJ  73  90  75  89 /  30  30  20  60
GNV  71  90  72  91 /  20  40  20  60
OCF  73  90  73  91 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/WALKER





000
FXUS62 KJAX 291325
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
925 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY...GENERALLY SOUTH OF SATE ROAD 16...IS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. THE REMAINING CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE
AREA MAY INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION IN THAT AREA TO THE AFTERNOON BUT
IS SHOULD DESTABILIZE AGAIN LATER TODAY. NOT SEEING A LOT OF
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA STATE LINE. A
FEW CELLS MAY CLIP SOUTHERN CHARLTON AND CAMDEN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL KEEP THE TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAFS FOR THE FLORIDA FIELDS AS
THE CONVECTION REDEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE LAFAYETTE COUNTY AREA THAT SHOULD MOVE
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. NOCTURNAL
SURGES TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION...SCEC...LEVELS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  93  72 /  20  10  40  30
SSI  85  74  88  77 /  30  10  40  30
JAX  88  72  92  74 /  40  20  50  30
SGJ  85  73  88  76 /  50  20  50  30
GNV  87  72  90  73 /  80  40  50  30
OCF  87  73  90  73 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/ENYEDI/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 291325
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
925 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY...GENERALLY SOUTH OF SATE ROAD 16...IS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. THE REMAINING CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE
AREA MAY INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION IN THAT AREA TO THE AFTERNOON BUT
IS SHOULD DESTABILIZE AGAIN LATER TODAY. NOT SEEING A LOT OF
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA STATE LINE. A
FEW CELLS MAY CLIP SOUTHERN CHARLTON AND CAMDEN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL KEEP THE TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAFS FOR THE FLORIDA FIELDS AS
THE CONVECTION REDEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE LAFAYETTE COUNTY AREA THAT SHOULD MOVE
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. NOCTURNAL
SURGES TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION...SCEC...LEVELS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  93  72 /  20  10  40  30
SSI  85  74  88  77 /  30  10  40  30
JAX  88  72  92  74 /  40  20  50  30
SGJ  85  73  88  76 /  50  20  50  30
GNV  87  72  90  73 /  80  40  50  30
OCF  87  73  90  73 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/ENYEDI/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 291325
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
925 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY...GENERALLY SOUTH OF SATE ROAD 16...IS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. THE REMAINING CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE
AREA MAY INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION IN THAT AREA TO THE AFTERNOON BUT
IS SHOULD DESTABILIZE AGAIN LATER TODAY. NOT SEEING A LOT OF
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA STATE LINE. A
FEW CELLS MAY CLIP SOUTHERN CHARLTON AND CAMDEN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL KEEP THE TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAFS FOR THE FLORIDA FIELDS AS
THE CONVECTION REDEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE LAFAYETTE COUNTY AREA THAT SHOULD MOVE
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. NOCTURNAL
SURGES TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION...SCEC...LEVELS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  93  72 /  20  10  40  30
SSI  85  74  88  77 /  30  10  40  30
JAX  88  72  92  74 /  40  20  50  30
SGJ  85  73  88  76 /  50  20  50  30
GNV  87  72  90  73 /  80  40  50  30
OCF  87  73  90  73 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/ENYEDI/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 290628
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
228 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED ACROSS MOST AREAS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE GOMEX WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. WILL USE SCATTERED POPS FOR ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE GULF LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS IT NUDGES SOUTH
TOWARD THE FL/GA BORDER IN THE AFTN. MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS NE FL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL USE
HIGH END SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR NE FL...WITH LESSER POPS ACROSS SE GA AS SOME DRY
AIR TRIES TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH LITTLE/NO
PRECIP FOR FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SE GA. WITH TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LAPSE RATES
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS NE FL...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S ACROSS
INTERIOR SE GA TO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR OTHER AREAS. FOR
TNGT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY ACROSS NE FL. RESIDUAL
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL DECREASE...WITH AN ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWR LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FL. LOWER/MID 70S WILL PREVAIL FOR LOWS TNGT.

TUESDAY...DEEP SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING JUST TO THE N/NW. BRIEFLY DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SE GA WILL REMOISTEN TUESDAY...SO EXPECT
SCATTERED AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS FOR MOST AREAS. ONCE AGAIN...A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST SPREADING INLAND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS THEY MAY BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...LINGERING TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STORMS NEAR GULF COAST SPREADING
INLAND TOWARDS EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FL
PENINSULA RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS AND A TRANSITION TO MORE
DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION EACH DAY. BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS MERGE. RISING
HEIGHTS RESULTS IN TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE MID 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 AT THE COAST. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WARMER READINGS AT NIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WITH THE GREATEST TSTM THREAT FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
USE TEMPO GROUPS FOR VQQ/GNV/SGJ 18-23Z...WITH PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WILL USE VCTS FOR THE OTHER SITES THIS
AFTN IN MORE SCATTERED TS COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK. NOCTURNAL SURGES TO CAUTION LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS TODAY WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  93  72 /  20  10  40  30
SSI  85  74  88  77 /  30  10  40  30
JAX  88  72  92  74 /  40  20  50  30
SGJ  85  73  88  76 /  50  20  50  30
GNV  87  72  90  73 /  60  40  50  20
OCF  87  73  90  73 /  60  40  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/PETERSON





000
FXUS62 KJAX 290628
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
228 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED ACROSS MOST AREAS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE GOMEX WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. WILL USE SCATTERED POPS FOR ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE GULF LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS IT NUDGES SOUTH
TOWARD THE FL/GA BORDER IN THE AFTN. MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS NE FL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL USE
HIGH END SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR NE FL...WITH LESSER POPS ACROSS SE GA AS SOME DRY
AIR TRIES TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH LITTLE/NO
PRECIP FOR FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SE GA. WITH TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LAPSE RATES
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS NE FL...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S ACROSS
INTERIOR SE GA TO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR OTHER AREAS. FOR
TNGT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY ACROSS NE FL. RESIDUAL
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL DECREASE...WITH AN ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWR LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FL. LOWER/MID 70S WILL PREVAIL FOR LOWS TNGT.

TUESDAY...DEEP SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING JUST TO THE N/NW. BRIEFLY DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SE GA WILL REMOISTEN TUESDAY...SO EXPECT
SCATTERED AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS FOR MOST AREAS. ONCE AGAIN...A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST SPREADING INLAND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS THEY MAY BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...LINGERING TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STORMS NEAR GULF COAST SPREADING
INLAND TOWARDS EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FL
PENINSULA RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS AND A TRANSITION TO MORE
DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION EACH DAY. BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS MERGE. RISING
HEIGHTS RESULTS IN TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE MID 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 AT THE COAST. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WARMER READINGS AT NIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WITH THE GREATEST TSTM THREAT FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
USE TEMPO GROUPS FOR VQQ/GNV/SGJ 18-23Z...WITH PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WILL USE VCTS FOR THE OTHER SITES THIS
AFTN IN MORE SCATTERED TS COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK. NOCTURNAL SURGES TO CAUTION LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS TODAY WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  93  72 /  20  10  40  30
SSI  85  74  88  77 /  30  10  40  30
JAX  88  72  92  74 /  40  20  50  30
SGJ  85  73  88  76 /  50  20  50  30
GNV  87  72  90  73 /  60  40  50  20
OCF  87  73  90  73 /  60  40  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/PETERSON





000
FXUS62 KJAX 290628
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
228 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED ACROSS MOST AREAS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE GOMEX WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. WILL USE SCATTERED POPS FOR ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE GULF LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS IT NUDGES SOUTH
TOWARD THE FL/GA BORDER IN THE AFTN. MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS NE FL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL USE
HIGH END SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR NE FL...WITH LESSER POPS ACROSS SE GA AS SOME DRY
AIR TRIES TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH LITTLE/NO
PRECIP FOR FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SE GA. WITH TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LAPSE RATES
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS NE FL...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S ACROSS
INTERIOR SE GA TO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR OTHER AREAS. FOR
TNGT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY ACROSS NE FL. RESIDUAL
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL DECREASE...WITH AN ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWR LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FL. LOWER/MID 70S WILL PREVAIL FOR LOWS TNGT.

TUESDAY...DEEP SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING JUST TO THE N/NW. BRIEFLY DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SE GA WILL REMOISTEN TUESDAY...SO EXPECT
SCATTERED AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS FOR MOST AREAS. ONCE AGAIN...A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST SPREADING INLAND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS THEY MAY BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...LINGERING TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STORMS NEAR GULF COAST SPREADING
INLAND TOWARDS EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FL
PENINSULA RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS AND A TRANSITION TO MORE
DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION EACH DAY. BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS MERGE. RISING
HEIGHTS RESULTS IN TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE MID 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 AT THE COAST. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WARMER READINGS AT NIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WITH THE GREATEST TSTM THREAT FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
USE TEMPO GROUPS FOR VQQ/GNV/SGJ 18-23Z...WITH PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WILL USE VCTS FOR THE OTHER SITES THIS
AFTN IN MORE SCATTERED TS COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK. NOCTURNAL SURGES TO CAUTION LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS TODAY WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  93  72 /  20  10  40  30
SSI  85  74  88  77 /  30  10  40  30
JAX  88  72  92  74 /  40  20  50  30
SGJ  85  73  88  76 /  50  20  50  30
GNV  87  72  90  73 /  60  40  50  20
OCF  87  73  90  73 /  60  40  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/PETERSON




000
FXUS62 KJAX 290628
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
228 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED ACROSS MOST AREAS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE GOMEX WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. WILL USE SCATTERED POPS FOR ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE GULF LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS IT NUDGES SOUTH
TOWARD THE FL/GA BORDER IN THE AFTN. MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS NE FL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL USE
HIGH END SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR NE FL...WITH LESSER POPS ACROSS SE GA AS SOME DRY
AIR TRIES TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH LITTLE/NO
PRECIP FOR FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SE GA. WITH TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LAPSE RATES
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS NE FL...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S ACROSS
INTERIOR SE GA TO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR OTHER AREAS. FOR
TNGT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY ACROSS NE FL. RESIDUAL
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL DECREASE...WITH AN ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWR LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FL. LOWER/MID 70S WILL PREVAIL FOR LOWS TNGT.

TUESDAY...DEEP SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING JUST TO THE N/NW. BRIEFLY DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SE GA WILL REMOISTEN TUESDAY...SO EXPECT
SCATTERED AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS FOR MOST AREAS. ONCE AGAIN...A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST SPREADING INLAND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS THEY MAY BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...LINGERING TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STORMS NEAR GULF COAST SPREADING
INLAND TOWARDS EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FL
PENINSULA RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS AND A TRANSITION TO MORE
DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION EACH DAY. BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS MERGE. RISING
HEIGHTS RESULTS IN TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE MID 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 AT THE COAST. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WARMER READINGS AT NIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WITH THE GREATEST TSTM THREAT FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
USE TEMPO GROUPS FOR VQQ/GNV/SGJ 18-23Z...WITH PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WILL USE VCTS FOR THE OTHER SITES THIS
AFTN IN MORE SCATTERED TS COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK. NOCTURNAL SURGES TO CAUTION LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS TODAY WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  93  72 /  20  10  40  30
SSI  85  74  88  77 /  30  10  40  30
JAX  88  72  92  74 /  40  20  50  30
SGJ  85  73  88  76 /  50  20  50  30
GNV  87  72  90  73 /  60  40  50  20
OCF  87  73  90  73 /  60  40  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/PETERSON




000
FXUS62 KJAX 290243
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1043 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.UPDATE...
LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. HIGH
PRESSURE (1019 MILLIBARS) WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE U.S. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS LOCALLY...WITH EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY ARE WANING IN INTENSITY AS
THEY ENCOUNTER A WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE...WHILE HEAVIER ACTIVITY
WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE FL BIG BEND REGION...WHERE LAPS ANALYSIS
DEPICTS 1500-1900 CAPE VALUES PERSISTING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER THE FL BIG BEND WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL
THROUGH SUNRISE. INCREASED OVERNIGHT POPS TO LIKELY FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 70-75.

AS THE FRONT SAGS TOWARDS THE FL/GA BORDER ON MON...EXPECT MOST
ACTIVITY IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...WITH A COUPLE OF
WAVES OF CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10.
CONVECTION MAY SPREAD INTO COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAVIER STORMS ON MONDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS TOWARDS
03Z...PERHAPS LOWERING VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY TO MVFR THROUGH 05Z.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 09Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...POSSIBLY IMPACTING GNV WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS BY 11Z. AFTER DAYBREAK MON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS NE FL DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY MAY STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE DUVAL COUNTY
TERMINALS...AND GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...USED VCTS FOR THESE
TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. TS POTENTIAL LOWEST AT SSI
MON ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SO JUST KEPT VCSH IN
LIEU OF TS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
TONIGHT DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-20 KNOTS. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH
TUESDAY...KEEPING OFFSHORE WINDS IN PLACE. EVENING WIND SURGES
WILL BRING WIND SPEEDS UP TO CAUTION RANGE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW CAUTION
CRITERIA IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE FLORIDA WATERS ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WATERS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK CONTINUES DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  91  72  92 /  20  20  10  50
SSI  73  86  76  88 /  80  40  20  40
JAX  72  88  74  91 /  60  50  20  50
SGJ  74  86  75  89 /  50  60  20  40
GNV  73  86  73  90 /  70  70  30  50
OCF  73  87  74  91 /  70  70  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/HESS/WALKER





000
FXUS62 KJAX 290243
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1043 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.UPDATE...
LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. HIGH
PRESSURE (1019 MILLIBARS) WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE U.S. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS LOCALLY...WITH EMBEDDED WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY ARE WANING IN INTENSITY AS
THEY ENCOUNTER A WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE...WHILE HEAVIER ACTIVITY
WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE FL BIG BEND REGION...WHERE LAPS ANALYSIS
DEPICTS 1500-1900 CAPE VALUES PERSISTING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER THE FL BIG BEND WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL
THROUGH SUNRISE. INCREASED OVERNIGHT POPS TO LIKELY FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 70-75.

AS THE FRONT SAGS TOWARDS THE FL/GA BORDER ON MON...EXPECT MOST
ACTIVITY IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...WITH A COUPLE OF
WAVES OF CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10.
CONVECTION MAY SPREAD INTO COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAVIER STORMS ON MONDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS TOWARDS
03Z...PERHAPS LOWERING VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY TO MVFR THROUGH 05Z.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 09Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...POSSIBLY IMPACTING GNV WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS BY 11Z. AFTER DAYBREAK MON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS NE FL DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY MAY STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE DUVAL COUNTY
TERMINALS...AND GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...USED VCTS FOR THESE
TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. TS POTENTIAL LOWEST AT SSI
MON ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SO JUST KEPT VCSH IN
LIEU OF TS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
TONIGHT DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-20 KNOTS. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH
TUESDAY...KEEPING OFFSHORE WINDS IN PLACE. EVENING WIND SURGES
WILL BRING WIND SPEEDS UP TO CAUTION RANGE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW CAUTION
CRITERIA IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE FLORIDA WATERS ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WATERS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK CONTINUES DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  91  72  92 /  20  20  10  50
SSI  73  86  76  88 /  80  40  20  40
JAX  72  88  74  91 /  60  50  20  50
SGJ  74  86  75  89 /  50  60  20  40
GNV  73  86  73  90 /  70  70  30  50
OCF  73  87  74  91 /  70  70  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/HESS/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 281926
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
326 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...WAVES OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WAVES OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS
CONTINUED TO PUSH W-E ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE HAZARDS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF
40-60 MPH GIVEN ELEVATED WSW WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS. MANY GROUND
TRUTH REPORTS OF GUSTS 35-46 MPH WERE REPORTED. SE GA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE BULK OF PRECIP INTO THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF
THE STALLING FRONTAL ZONE AND UNDER WEAK DYNAMICAL FORCING ALOFT
AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING UPSTREAM OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL IMPACT NE FL INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY TSTORM COVERAGE
WILL GRADUALLY DWINDLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL AREAS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY
OUT TOWARD THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AS THE SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SE GA AND WESTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE GULF FUELS STORMS
EDGING INLAND ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH MUGGY MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND
TO UPPER 70S RIVER BASIN/COAST.

MON-MON NIGHT...THE SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS NE FL
WITH HIGH PWAT PLUME OF 2+ INCHES WHILE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
FUNNELS OVER SE GA. EARLY MORNING PRECIP WILL NOSE INLAND ACROSS
THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY ZONES UNDER W WINDS THE ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY BLOSSOM WHILE TREKKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COAST INTO THE AFTN. EXPECT A TIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL GRADIENT
FROM NEAR 20% OR LESS OVER SE GA WHERE DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE
AND LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL TO NEAR 70% ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FL
ZONES FROM SGJ TO GNV SOUTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 90S ACROSS INLAND SE GA TO ONLY THE MID/UPPER 80S OVER NE
FL DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND PASSING CONVECTION. MON NIGHT
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS BECOMES DIFFUSE WHILE THE MOISTURE PLUME
LIFTS NORTHWARD TO OVERSPREAD SE GA UNDER INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD
OF ANOTHER MEAN TROUGH PRESSING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
EXPECT PRECIP WILL WANE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVER NE FL MON
EVENING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LOW 20-30% OF PRECIP ACROSS NE FL IN
THE VICINITY OF THE MEANDERING DIFFUSE FRONTAL AXIS AND WHERE SW
FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD STEER SOME EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...BREEZY AND WARMER WEST FLOW WITH CONVECTION AGAIN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
MORE PRECIP COVERAGE OVER SE GA COMPARED TO MONDAY DUE TO MEAN
LAYER TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS ACROSS S FL. ADVERTISED MORNING PRECIP MOVING INLAND ACROSS
THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY FROM THE GULF COAST...THEN SHIFT PRECIP
POTENTIAL INLAND AND NORTHWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CAPPED
RAIN CHANCES AT 40% FOR NOW GIVEN DRIER MEAN LAYER AIRMASS IN
PLACE AS ADVERTISED BY 12Z MODEL SUITE. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90S ALONG THE COAST. PRECIP WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET BUT WILL MAINTAIN
LOW 20-30% CHANCES OF NOCTURNAL PRECIP OVERNIGHT GIVEN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND MOIST SW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...WED THROUGH SUN...

WED-THU...NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND PRECIP PATTERN UNDER A PREVAILING
SW STEERING FLOW GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE MEAN LAYER 1000-700 MB
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ADVERTISED DIURNAL PRECIP PATTERN
WITH MORNING CONVECTION MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE AFTN WITH
RAIN CHANCES IN THE 40-50% RANGE. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. 500 MB TEMPS
ADVERTISED TO RANGE FROM -8 TO -10 DEG C WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR WHICH FAVOR BOTH DOWNBURST POTENTIAL AND HAIL IN STRONGER
STORM CELLS.

FRI-SUN...TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE ABOVE CLIMO VALUES AS UPPER
RIDGING NOSES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE MEAN 1000-700 MB
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FL. STEERING FLOW
WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SSW WHICH WILL ENABLE THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND. RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID 90S INLAND TO
UPPER 80S COAST. ADVERTISED DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES NEAR CLIMO IN THE
30-40% RANGE WITH A FOCUS FOR SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW COLLISION BETWEEN
HIGHWAY 301 AND I-75 IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...WAVES OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO POTENTIALLY IFR DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN WAVES OF TSTORMS THIS AFTN. GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS
WERE ADVERTISED IN TEMPO GROUPS AT GNV AND SSI. ADVERTISED VCSH
FOR ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRECIP POTENTIAL REMAINS ELEVATED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE FL. COULD SEE PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS LOW CLOUD DECK SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
WITH FRONTAL ZONE. ANOTHER ROUND OF W-E PROPAGATING CONVECTION
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE GOMEX MON MORNING...AND ADVERTISED VCTS
AT GNV AROUND 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHILE
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LINGERS OVER GEORGIA THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ELEVATED WSW WINDS WILL NEAR 15 KTS AT
TIMES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT MON
INTO TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL ZONE WITH EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS
ADVERTISED OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND MONDAY UNDER
OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  91  72  92 /  30  20  10  50
SSI  75  86  76  88 /  40  50  20  40
JAX  74  88  74  91 /  40  50  20  50
SGJ  75  86  75  89 /  40  60  20  40
GNV  73  86  73  90 /  50  60  30  50
OCF  74  87  74  91 /  50  70  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 281926
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
326 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...WAVES OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WAVES OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS
CONTINUED TO PUSH W-E ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE HAZARDS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF
40-60 MPH GIVEN ELEVATED WSW WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS. MANY GROUND
TRUTH REPORTS OF GUSTS 35-46 MPH WERE REPORTED. SE GA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE BULK OF PRECIP INTO THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF
THE STALLING FRONTAL ZONE AND UNDER WEAK DYNAMICAL FORCING ALOFT
AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING UPSTREAM OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL IMPACT NE FL INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY TSTORM COVERAGE
WILL GRADUALLY DWINDLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL AREAS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY
OUT TOWARD THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AS THE SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SE GA AND WESTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE GULF FUELS STORMS
EDGING INLAND ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH MUGGY MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND
TO UPPER 70S RIVER BASIN/COAST.

MON-MON NIGHT...THE SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS NE FL
WITH HIGH PWAT PLUME OF 2+ INCHES WHILE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
FUNNELS OVER SE GA. EARLY MORNING PRECIP WILL NOSE INLAND ACROSS
THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY ZONES UNDER W WINDS THE ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY BLOSSOM WHILE TREKKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COAST INTO THE AFTN. EXPECT A TIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL GRADIENT
FROM NEAR 20% OR LESS OVER SE GA WHERE DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE
AND LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL TO NEAR 70% ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FL
ZONES FROM SGJ TO GNV SOUTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 90S ACROSS INLAND SE GA TO ONLY THE MID/UPPER 80S OVER NE
FL DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND PASSING CONVECTION. MON NIGHT
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS BECOMES DIFFUSE WHILE THE MOISTURE PLUME
LIFTS NORTHWARD TO OVERSPREAD SE GA UNDER INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD
OF ANOTHER MEAN TROUGH PRESSING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
EXPECT PRECIP WILL WANE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVER NE FL MON
EVENING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LOW 20-30% OF PRECIP ACROSS NE FL IN
THE VICINITY OF THE MEANDERING DIFFUSE FRONTAL AXIS AND WHERE SW
FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD STEER SOME EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...BREEZY AND WARMER WEST FLOW WITH CONVECTION AGAIN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
MORE PRECIP COVERAGE OVER SE GA COMPARED TO MONDAY DUE TO MEAN
LAYER TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS ACROSS S FL. ADVERTISED MORNING PRECIP MOVING INLAND ACROSS
THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY FROM THE GULF COAST...THEN SHIFT PRECIP
POTENTIAL INLAND AND NORTHWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CAPPED
RAIN CHANCES AT 40% FOR NOW GIVEN DRIER MEAN LAYER AIRMASS IN
PLACE AS ADVERTISED BY 12Z MODEL SUITE. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90S ALONG THE COAST. PRECIP WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET BUT WILL MAINTAIN
LOW 20-30% CHANCES OF NOCTURNAL PRECIP OVERNIGHT GIVEN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND MOIST SW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...WED THROUGH SUN...

WED-THU...NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND PRECIP PATTERN UNDER A PREVAILING
SW STEERING FLOW GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE MEAN LAYER 1000-700 MB
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ADVERTISED DIURNAL PRECIP PATTERN
WITH MORNING CONVECTION MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE AFTN WITH
RAIN CHANCES IN THE 40-50% RANGE. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. 500 MB TEMPS
ADVERTISED TO RANGE FROM -8 TO -10 DEG C WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR WHICH FAVOR BOTH DOWNBURST POTENTIAL AND HAIL IN STRONGER
STORM CELLS.

FRI-SUN...TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE ABOVE CLIMO VALUES AS UPPER
RIDGING NOSES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE MEAN 1000-700 MB
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FL. STEERING FLOW
WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SSW WHICH WILL ENABLE THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND. RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID 90S INLAND TO
UPPER 80S COAST. ADVERTISED DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES NEAR CLIMO IN THE
30-40% RANGE WITH A FOCUS FOR SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW COLLISION BETWEEN
HIGHWAY 301 AND I-75 IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...WAVES OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO POTENTIALLY IFR DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN WAVES OF TSTORMS THIS AFTN. GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS
WERE ADVERTISED IN TEMPO GROUPS AT GNV AND SSI. ADVERTISED VCSH
FOR ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRECIP POTENTIAL REMAINS ELEVATED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE FL. COULD SEE PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS LOW CLOUD DECK SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
WITH FRONTAL ZONE. ANOTHER ROUND OF W-E PROPAGATING CONVECTION
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE GOMEX MON MORNING...AND ADVERTISED VCTS
AT GNV AROUND 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHILE
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LINGERS OVER GEORGIA THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ELEVATED WSW WINDS WILL NEAR 15 KTS AT
TIMES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT MON
INTO TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL ZONE WITH EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS
ADVERTISED OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND MONDAY UNDER
OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  91  72  92 /  30  20  10  50
SSI  75  86  76  88 /  40  50  20  40
JAX  74  88  74  91 /  40  50  20  50
SGJ  75  86  75  89 /  40  60  20  40
GNV  73  86  73  90 /  50  60  30  50
OCF  74  87  74  91 /  50  70  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 281926
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
326 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...WAVES OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WAVES OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS
CONTINUED TO PUSH W-E ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE HAZARDS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF
40-60 MPH GIVEN ELEVATED WSW WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS. MANY GROUND
TRUTH REPORTS OF GUSTS 35-46 MPH WERE REPORTED. SE GA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE BULK OF PRECIP INTO THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF
THE STALLING FRONTAL ZONE AND UNDER WEAK DYNAMICAL FORCING ALOFT
AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING UPSTREAM OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL IMPACT NE FL INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY TSTORM COVERAGE
WILL GRADUALLY DWINDLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL AREAS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY
OUT TOWARD THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AS THE SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SE GA AND WESTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE GULF FUELS STORMS
EDGING INLAND ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH MUGGY MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND
TO UPPER 70S RIVER BASIN/COAST.

MON-MON NIGHT...THE SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS NE FL
WITH HIGH PWAT PLUME OF 2+ INCHES WHILE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
FUNNELS OVER SE GA. EARLY MORNING PRECIP WILL NOSE INLAND ACROSS
THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY ZONES UNDER W WINDS THE ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY BLOSSOM WHILE TREKKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COAST INTO THE AFTN. EXPECT A TIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL GRADIENT
FROM NEAR 20% OR LESS OVER SE GA WHERE DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE
AND LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL TO NEAR 70% ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FL
ZONES FROM SGJ TO GNV SOUTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 90S ACROSS INLAND SE GA TO ONLY THE MID/UPPER 80S OVER NE
FL DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND PASSING CONVECTION. MON NIGHT
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS BECOMES DIFFUSE WHILE THE MOISTURE PLUME
LIFTS NORTHWARD TO OVERSPREAD SE GA UNDER INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD
OF ANOTHER MEAN TROUGH PRESSING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
EXPECT PRECIP WILL WANE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVER NE FL MON
EVENING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LOW 20-30% OF PRECIP ACROSS NE FL IN
THE VICINITY OF THE MEANDERING DIFFUSE FRONTAL AXIS AND WHERE SW
FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD STEER SOME EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...BREEZY AND WARMER WEST FLOW WITH CONVECTION AGAIN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
MORE PRECIP COVERAGE OVER SE GA COMPARED TO MONDAY DUE TO MEAN
LAYER TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS ACROSS S FL. ADVERTISED MORNING PRECIP MOVING INLAND ACROSS
THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY FROM THE GULF COAST...THEN SHIFT PRECIP
POTENTIAL INLAND AND NORTHWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CAPPED
RAIN CHANCES AT 40% FOR NOW GIVEN DRIER MEAN LAYER AIRMASS IN
PLACE AS ADVERTISED BY 12Z MODEL SUITE. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90S ALONG THE COAST. PRECIP WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET BUT WILL MAINTAIN
LOW 20-30% CHANCES OF NOCTURNAL PRECIP OVERNIGHT GIVEN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND MOIST SW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...WED THROUGH SUN...

WED-THU...NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND PRECIP PATTERN UNDER A PREVAILING
SW STEERING FLOW GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE MEAN LAYER 1000-700 MB
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ADVERTISED DIURNAL PRECIP PATTERN
WITH MORNING CONVECTION MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE AFTN WITH
RAIN CHANCES IN THE 40-50% RANGE. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. 500 MB TEMPS
ADVERTISED TO RANGE FROM -8 TO -10 DEG C WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR WHICH FAVOR BOTH DOWNBURST POTENTIAL AND HAIL IN STRONGER
STORM CELLS.

FRI-SUN...TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE ABOVE CLIMO VALUES AS UPPER
RIDGING NOSES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE MEAN 1000-700 MB
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FL. STEERING FLOW
WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SSW WHICH WILL ENABLE THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND. RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID 90S INLAND TO
UPPER 80S COAST. ADVERTISED DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES NEAR CLIMO IN THE
30-40% RANGE WITH A FOCUS FOR SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW COLLISION BETWEEN
HIGHWAY 301 AND I-75 IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...WAVES OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO POTENTIALLY IFR DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN WAVES OF TSTORMS THIS AFTN. GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS
WERE ADVERTISED IN TEMPO GROUPS AT GNV AND SSI. ADVERTISED VCSH
FOR ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRECIP POTENTIAL REMAINS ELEVATED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE FL. COULD SEE PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS LOW CLOUD DECK SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
WITH FRONTAL ZONE. ANOTHER ROUND OF W-E PROPAGATING CONVECTION
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE GOMEX MON MORNING...AND ADVERTISED VCTS
AT GNV AROUND 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHILE
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LINGERS OVER GEORGIA THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ELEVATED WSW WINDS WILL NEAR 15 KTS AT
TIMES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT MON
INTO TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL ZONE WITH EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS
ADVERTISED OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND MONDAY UNDER
OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  91  72  92 /  30  20  10  50
SSI  75  86  76  88 /  40  50  20  40
JAX  74  88  74  91 /  40  50  20  50
SGJ  75  86  75  89 /  40  60  20  40
GNV  73  86  73  90 /  50  60  30  50
OCF  74  87  74  91 /  50  70  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 281926
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
326 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...WAVES OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WAVES OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS
CONTINUED TO PUSH W-E ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE HAZARDS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF
40-60 MPH GIVEN ELEVATED WSW WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS. MANY GROUND
TRUTH REPORTS OF GUSTS 35-46 MPH WERE REPORTED. SE GA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE BULK OF PRECIP INTO THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF
THE STALLING FRONTAL ZONE AND UNDER WEAK DYNAMICAL FORCING ALOFT
AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING UPSTREAM OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL IMPACT NE FL INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY TSTORM COVERAGE
WILL GRADUALLY DWINDLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL AREAS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY
OUT TOWARD THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AS THE SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SE GA AND WESTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE GULF FUELS STORMS
EDGING INLAND ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH MUGGY MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND
TO UPPER 70S RIVER BASIN/COAST.

MON-MON NIGHT...THE SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS NE FL
WITH HIGH PWAT PLUME OF 2+ INCHES WHILE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
FUNNELS OVER SE GA. EARLY MORNING PRECIP WILL NOSE INLAND ACROSS
THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY ZONES UNDER W WINDS THE ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY BLOSSOM WHILE TREKKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COAST INTO THE AFTN. EXPECT A TIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL GRADIENT
FROM NEAR 20% OR LESS OVER SE GA WHERE DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE
AND LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL TO NEAR 70% ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FL
ZONES FROM SGJ TO GNV SOUTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 90S ACROSS INLAND SE GA TO ONLY THE MID/UPPER 80S OVER NE
FL DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND PASSING CONVECTION. MON NIGHT
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS BECOMES DIFFUSE WHILE THE MOISTURE PLUME
LIFTS NORTHWARD TO OVERSPREAD SE GA UNDER INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD
OF ANOTHER MEAN TROUGH PRESSING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
EXPECT PRECIP WILL WANE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVER NE FL MON
EVENING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LOW 20-30% OF PRECIP ACROSS NE FL IN
THE VICINITY OF THE MEANDERING DIFFUSE FRONTAL AXIS AND WHERE SW
FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD STEER SOME EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...BREEZY AND WARMER WEST FLOW WITH CONVECTION AGAIN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
MORE PRECIP COVERAGE OVER SE GA COMPARED TO MONDAY DUE TO MEAN
LAYER TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS ACROSS S FL. ADVERTISED MORNING PRECIP MOVING INLAND ACROSS
THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY FROM THE GULF COAST...THEN SHIFT PRECIP
POTENTIAL INLAND AND NORTHWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CAPPED
RAIN CHANCES AT 40% FOR NOW GIVEN DRIER MEAN LAYER AIRMASS IN
PLACE AS ADVERTISED BY 12Z MODEL SUITE. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE INTO
THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90S ALONG THE COAST. PRECIP WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET BUT WILL MAINTAIN
LOW 20-30% CHANCES OF NOCTURNAL PRECIP OVERNIGHT GIVEN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND MOIST SW FLOW.

.LONG TERM...WED THROUGH SUN...

WED-THU...NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND PRECIP PATTERN UNDER A PREVAILING
SW STEERING FLOW GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE MEAN LAYER 1000-700 MB
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ADVERTISED DIURNAL PRECIP PATTERN
WITH MORNING CONVECTION MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE AFTN WITH
RAIN CHANCES IN THE 40-50% RANGE. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. 500 MB TEMPS
ADVERTISED TO RANGE FROM -8 TO -10 DEG C WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR WHICH FAVOR BOTH DOWNBURST POTENTIAL AND HAIL IN STRONGER
STORM CELLS.

FRI-SUN...TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE ABOVE CLIMO VALUES AS UPPER
RIDGING NOSES WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE MEAN 1000-700 MB
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FL. STEERING FLOW
WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SSW WHICH WILL ENABLE THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND. RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID 90S INLAND TO
UPPER 80S COAST. ADVERTISED DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES NEAR CLIMO IN THE
30-40% RANGE WITH A FOCUS FOR SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW COLLISION BETWEEN
HIGHWAY 301 AND I-75 IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...WAVES OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO POTENTIALLY IFR DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN WAVES OF TSTORMS THIS AFTN. GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS
WERE ADVERTISED IN TEMPO GROUPS AT GNV AND SSI. ADVERTISED VCSH
FOR ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AS PRECIP POTENTIAL REMAINS ELEVATED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE FL. COULD SEE PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS LOW CLOUD DECK SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
WITH FRONTAL ZONE. ANOTHER ROUND OF W-E PROPAGATING CONVECTION
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE GOMEX MON MORNING...AND ADVERTISED VCTS
AT GNV AROUND 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHILE
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LINGERS OVER GEORGIA THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ELEVATED WSW WINDS WILL NEAR 15 KTS AT
TIMES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT MON
INTO TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL ZONE WITH EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS
ADVERTISED OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND MONDAY UNDER
OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  91  72  92 /  30  20  10  50
SSI  75  86  76  88 /  40  50  20  40
JAX  74  88  74  91 /  40  50  20  50
SGJ  75  86  75  89 /  40  60  20  40
GNV  73  86  73  90 /  50  60  30  50
OCF  74  87  74  91 /  50  70  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 281317
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
917 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS SLOW IT DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT
THE CAPES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE
2000-2500 RANGE BASED ON THE 12 UTC KJAX SOUNDING. CURRENTLY NO
CLOUD COVERAGE TO INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY. PRECIP
WATER IS 1.72 INCHES SO ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER...SPC...HAS
THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS TO BE STRONG WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SEVERE WHERE STORMS ARE MORE ISOLATED AND NOT FIGHTING
FOR THE AVAILABLE ENERGY/INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE TEMPO CONVECTION AT ALL OF THE AIR FIELDS AS CONVECTION MOVES
FROM WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WITH CONVECTION SHOULD
BE IN THE 2.5-3.5 KFT RANGE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND A GENERAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS INTO MID-WEEK. NOCTURNAL SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  70  92  72 /  60  30  20  10
SSI  87  74  86  77 /  70  40  30  20
JAX  91  73  88  73 /  60  40  40  30
SGJ  89  74  85  75 /  50  40  60  30
GNV  90  73  87  73 /  50  40  60  30
OCF  91  74  87  73 /  50  40  60  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/ENYEDI/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 281317
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
917 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS SLOW IT DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT
THE CAPES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE
2000-2500 RANGE BASED ON THE 12 UTC KJAX SOUNDING. CURRENTLY NO
CLOUD COVERAGE TO INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY. PRECIP
WATER IS 1.72 INCHES SO ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER...SPC...HAS
THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS TO BE STRONG WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SEVERE WHERE STORMS ARE MORE ISOLATED AND NOT FIGHTING
FOR THE AVAILABLE ENERGY/INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE TEMPO CONVECTION AT ALL OF THE AIR FIELDS AS CONVECTION MOVES
FROM WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WITH CONVECTION SHOULD
BE IN THE 2.5-3.5 KFT RANGE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND A GENERAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS INTO MID-WEEK. NOCTURNAL SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  70  92  72 /  60  30  20  10
SSI  87  74  86  77 /  70  40  30  20
JAX  91  73  88  73 /  60  40  40  30
SGJ  89  74  85  75 /  50  40  60  30
GNV  90  73  87  73 /  50  40  60  30
OCF  91  74  87  73 /  50  40  60  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/ENYEDI/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 280650
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALL CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF SHOWERS WELL TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. PER THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
BLEND...A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN DEEP SW FLOW LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NE GULF MIGRATING TO THE NE INTO THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY BY SUNRISE. WILL USE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...RICH SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
AREA...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH NUDGES SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
EXPECT MORNING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHWRS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO MOVE
INLAND FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX...WITH EXPANSION OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN
THE AFTN AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT EDGES SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. WILL USE NUMEROUS POPS BY LATE AFTN ACROSS SE GA INTO NE
FL WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY TOWARD NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.
WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DECENT LAPSE RATES...THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A STORM OR TWO ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA
COUPLE PRODUCE SOME HAIL CLOSER TO THE COLD DOME ALOFT. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SATURDAY GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST AREAS. EARLY EVENING
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH
RESIDUAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWER TO MID 70S WILL
PREVAIL FOR LOWS TNGT.

MONDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DECAY ACROSS NE FL...WITH
DEEP LAYER SW FLOW CONTINUING. WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO SE
GA...PRECIP COVERAGE THERE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. WITH THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY AND A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ACROSS NE FL BEING THE MAIN FOCUSING MECHANISMS...WILL
USE LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID
90S ACROSS SE GA...TO THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS NE FL.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...THE ELONGATED
NE TO SW ORIENTED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY. AS THIS SHORTWAVE EXIT THE REGION MONDAY
EVENING THE TAIL END OF THE EXITING ELONGATED VORT LOBE WILL
FURNISH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LINGERING CONVECTION MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-10...AND OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE MARKEDLY OVER THE REGION A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNSET. DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY MORNING...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL INITIATE NEAR THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. THOUGH CONVECTION WILL
BE MORE LIMITED...TSTMS WILL MIGRATE INLAND TO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION
WILL WANE RATHER QUICKLY DURING EARLY NOCTURNAL HOURS TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HEIGHTS BUILD SLIGHTLY
OVER FL...SETTING UP FLAT UPR RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH WSW SFC
FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
SIMILAR PATTERN OF CONVECTION WORKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
SHOULD SEE SOME DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE BY MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL MAINTAIN WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED POPS EACH
AFTERNOON THAT ARE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE FLORIDA ZONES. WITH
FLAT RIDGE BUILDING OVER AREA...WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
TEMPS TO LWR/MID 90S BY MIDDLE OF WEEK AND MID 90S BY SATURDAY.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE HEAT
INDICES NEAR 100. ON SATURDAY...THE SEABREEZE REGIME WILL CHANGE
WITH WEAKER SWLY FLOW. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR COLLIDING EAST
COAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL USE VCSH/VCTS FOR ALL SITES LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS MID/LATE AFTN
WILL USE PROB30 FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN TSRA FOR ALL SITES.
SW WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH MID MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 10-14 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTN. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS LATE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WINDS AT BUOY 41008 14G16KT FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WILL TAKE DOWN THE CAUTION FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS WITH THE
EARLY MORNING ISSUANCE. SW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL INTO
MIDWEEK...BACKING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH LATE WEEK. ANY
NOCTURNAL SURGES WILL REMAIN UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH MONDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  70  92  72 /  60  30  20  10
SSI  87  74  86  77 /  70  40  30  20
JAX  91  73  88  73 /  60  40  40  30
SGJ  89  74  85  75 /  50  40  60  30
GNV  90  73  87  73 /  50  40  60  30
OCF  91  74  87  73 /  50  40  60  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CORDERO/ALLEN/





000
FXUS62 KJAX 280650
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALL CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF SHOWERS WELL TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. PER THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
BLEND...A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN DEEP SW FLOW LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NE GULF MIGRATING TO THE NE INTO THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY BY SUNRISE. WILL USE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...RICH SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
AREA...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH NUDGES SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
EXPECT MORNING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHWRS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO MOVE
INLAND FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX...WITH EXPANSION OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN
THE AFTN AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT EDGES SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. WILL USE NUMEROUS POPS BY LATE AFTN ACROSS SE GA INTO NE
FL WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY TOWARD NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.
WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DECENT LAPSE RATES...THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A STORM OR TWO ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA
COUPLE PRODUCE SOME HAIL CLOSER TO THE COLD DOME ALOFT. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SATURDAY GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST AREAS. EARLY EVENING
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH
RESIDUAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWER TO MID 70S WILL
PREVAIL FOR LOWS TNGT.

MONDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DECAY ACROSS NE FL...WITH
DEEP LAYER SW FLOW CONTINUING. WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO SE
GA...PRECIP COVERAGE THERE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. WITH THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY AND A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ACROSS NE FL BEING THE MAIN FOCUSING MECHANISMS...WILL
USE LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID
90S ACROSS SE GA...TO THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS NE FL.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...THE ELONGATED
NE TO SW ORIENTED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY. AS THIS SHORTWAVE EXIT THE REGION MONDAY
EVENING THE TAIL END OF THE EXITING ELONGATED VORT LOBE WILL
FURNISH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LINGERING CONVECTION MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-10...AND OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE MARKEDLY OVER THE REGION A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNSET. DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY MORNING...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL INITIATE NEAR THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. THOUGH CONVECTION WILL
BE MORE LIMITED...TSTMS WILL MIGRATE INLAND TO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION
WILL WANE RATHER QUICKLY DURING EARLY NOCTURNAL HOURS TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HEIGHTS BUILD SLIGHTLY
OVER FL...SETTING UP FLAT UPR RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH WSW SFC
FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
SIMILAR PATTERN OF CONVECTION WORKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
SHOULD SEE SOME DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE BY MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL MAINTAIN WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED POPS EACH
AFTERNOON THAT ARE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE FLORIDA ZONES. WITH
FLAT RIDGE BUILDING OVER AREA...WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
TEMPS TO LWR/MID 90S BY MIDDLE OF WEEK AND MID 90S BY SATURDAY.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE HEAT
INDICES NEAR 100. ON SATURDAY...THE SEABREEZE REGIME WILL CHANGE
WITH WEAKER SWLY FLOW. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR COLLIDING EAST
COAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL USE VCSH/VCTS FOR ALL SITES LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS MID/LATE AFTN
WILL USE PROB30 FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN TSRA FOR ALL SITES.
SW WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH MID MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 10-14 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTN. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS LATE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WINDS AT BUOY 41008 14G16KT FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WILL TAKE DOWN THE CAUTION FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS WITH THE
EARLY MORNING ISSUANCE. SW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL INTO
MIDWEEK...BACKING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH LATE WEEK. ANY
NOCTURNAL SURGES WILL REMAIN UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH MONDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  70  92  72 /  60  30  20  10
SSI  87  74  86  77 /  70  40  30  20
JAX  91  73  88  73 /  60  40  40  30
SGJ  89  74  85  75 /  50  40  60  30
GNV  90  73  87  73 /  50  40  60  30
OCF  91  74  87  73 /  50  40  60  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CORDERO/ALLEN/




000
FXUS62 KJAX 280650
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALL CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF SHOWERS WELL TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. PER THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
BLEND...A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN DEEP SW FLOW LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NE GULF MIGRATING TO THE NE INTO THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY BY SUNRISE. WILL USE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...RICH SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
AREA...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH NUDGES SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
EXPECT MORNING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHWRS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO MOVE
INLAND FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX...WITH EXPANSION OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN
THE AFTN AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT EDGES SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. WILL USE NUMEROUS POPS BY LATE AFTN ACROSS SE GA INTO NE
FL WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY TOWARD NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.
WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DECENT LAPSE RATES...THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A STORM OR TWO ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA
COUPLE PRODUCE SOME HAIL CLOSER TO THE COLD DOME ALOFT. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SATURDAY GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR MOST AREAS. EARLY EVENING
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH
RESIDUAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWER TO MID 70S WILL
PREVAIL FOR LOWS TNGT.

MONDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DECAY ACROSS NE FL...WITH
DEEP LAYER SW FLOW CONTINUING. WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO SE
GA...PRECIP COVERAGE THERE WILL BE LESS THAN SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. WITH THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY AND A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ACROSS NE FL BEING THE MAIN FOCUSING MECHANISMS...WILL
USE LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID
90S ACROSS SE GA...TO THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS NE FL.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...THE ELONGATED
NE TO SW ORIENTED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY. AS THIS SHORTWAVE EXIT THE REGION MONDAY
EVENING THE TAIL END OF THE EXITING ELONGATED VORT LOBE WILL
FURNISH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LINGERING CONVECTION MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-10...AND OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE MARKEDLY OVER THE REGION A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNSET. DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY MORNING...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL INITIATE NEAR THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. THOUGH CONVECTION WILL
BE MORE LIMITED...TSTMS WILL MIGRATE INLAND TO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION
WILL WANE RATHER QUICKLY DURING EARLY NOCTURNAL HOURS TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HEIGHTS BUILD SLIGHTLY
OVER FL...SETTING UP FLAT UPR RIDGE OVER THE AREA. WITH WSW SFC
FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
SIMILAR PATTERN OF CONVECTION WORKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
SHOULD SEE SOME DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE BY MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL MAINTAIN WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED POPS EACH
AFTERNOON THAT ARE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE FLORIDA ZONES. WITH
FLAT RIDGE BUILDING OVER AREA...WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
TEMPS TO LWR/MID 90S BY MIDDLE OF WEEK AND MID 90S BY SATURDAY.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE HEAT
INDICES NEAR 100. ON SATURDAY...THE SEABREEZE REGIME WILL CHANGE
WITH WEAKER SWLY FLOW. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR COLLIDING EAST
COAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL USE VCSH/VCTS FOR ALL SITES LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS MID/LATE AFTN
WILL USE PROB30 FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN TSRA FOR ALL SITES.
SW WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH MID MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 10-14 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTN. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS LATE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WINDS AT BUOY 41008 14G16KT FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WILL TAKE DOWN THE CAUTION FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS WITH THE
EARLY MORNING ISSUANCE. SW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL INTO
MIDWEEK...BACKING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH LATE WEEK. ANY
NOCTURNAL SURGES WILL REMAIN UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH MONDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  70  92  72 /  60  30  20  10
SSI  87  74  86  77 /  70  40  30  20
JAX  91  73  88  73 /  60  40  40  30
SGJ  89  74  85  75 /  50  40  60  30
GNV  90  73  87  73 /  50  40  60  30
OCF  91  74  87  73 /  50  40  60  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CORDERO/ALLEN/





000
FXUS62 KJAX 272350
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
750 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT
WILL HAVE  TO WATCH CONVECTION OVER NORTH GEORGIA AND ESPECIALLY
IN THE MACON AREA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE
BIG BEND AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BETWEEN 02-05 UTC.
WONDERING IF SOME OF THIS MIGHT BE CONVERGENCE WITH AN OUTFLOW
COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTH GEORGIA CONVECTION. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AND EYE ON THIS POSSIBILITY. RIGHT NOW NOT QUITE BUYING IT AS THE
CONVECTION IN THE BIG BEND IS QUITE MODEST AND HRRR HAS A HABIT OF
OVERDOING CONVECTION BUT STILL NEEDS TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL WILL KEEP THE FIELDS CONVECTION FREE OVERNIGHT WITH VCSH
IN THE SAINT SIMONS AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLY OF CONVECTION
MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WITH SHORT
DURATION WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS OUR OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  74  89  73 /  60  60  60  40
SSI  89  77  87  76 /  60  50  70  60
JAX  91  76  90  75 /  50  50  70  60
SGJ  90  76  90  76 /  40  20  60  50
GNV  90  74  90  74 /  40  20  60  60
OCF  91  75  90  75 /  30  20  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/SANDRIK/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 272350
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
750 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT
WILL HAVE  TO WATCH CONVECTION OVER NORTH GEORGIA AND ESPECIALLY
IN THE MACON AREA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE
BIG BEND AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BETWEEN 02-05 UTC.
WONDERING IF SOME OF THIS MIGHT BE CONVERGENCE WITH AN OUTFLOW
COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTH GEORGIA CONVECTION. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AND EYE ON THIS POSSIBILITY. RIGHT NOW NOT QUITE BUYING IT AS THE
CONVECTION IN THE BIG BEND IS QUITE MODEST AND HRRR HAS A HABIT OF
OVERDOING CONVECTION BUT STILL NEEDS TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL WILL KEEP THE FIELDS CONVECTION FREE OVERNIGHT WITH VCSH
IN THE SAINT SIMONS AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLY OF CONVECTION
MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WITH SHORT
DURATION WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS OUR OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  74  89  73 /  60  60  60  40
SSI  89  77  87  76 /  60  50  70  60
JAX  91  76  90  75 /  50  50  70  60
SGJ  90  76  90  76 /  40  20  60  50
GNV  90  74  90  74 /  40  20  60  60
OCF  91  75  90  75 /  30  20  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/SANDRIK/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 272350
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
750 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT
WILL HAVE  TO WATCH CONVECTION OVER NORTH GEORGIA AND ESPECIALLY
IN THE MACON AREA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE
BIG BEND AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BETWEEN 02-05 UTC.
WONDERING IF SOME OF THIS MIGHT BE CONVERGENCE WITH AN OUTFLOW
COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTH GEORGIA CONVECTION. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AND EYE ON THIS POSSIBILITY. RIGHT NOW NOT QUITE BUYING IT AS THE
CONVECTION IN THE BIG BEND IS QUITE MODEST AND HRRR HAS A HABIT OF
OVERDOING CONVECTION BUT STILL NEEDS TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL WILL KEEP THE FIELDS CONVECTION FREE OVERNIGHT WITH VCSH
IN THE SAINT SIMONS AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLY OF CONVECTION
MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WITH SHORT
DURATION WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS OUR OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  74  89  73 /  60  60  60  40
SSI  89  77  87  76 /  60  50  70  60
JAX  91  76  90  75 /  50  50  70  60
SGJ  90  76  90  76 /  40  20  60  50
GNV  90  74  90  74 /  40  20  60  60
OCF  91  75  90  75 /  30  20  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/SANDRIK/WALKER





000
FXUS62 KJAX 271805
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...FEW STRONG AFTN/EVENING STORMS FOR SE GA...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUN NIGHT...

THIS AFTERNOON...LWEP STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN SEVERAL CONVECTIVE
BANDS TODAY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND VERY WEAK ROTATING COMMA
HEADS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD OVER SE GA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING MEAN LAYER TROUGH
ACROSS THE SE REGION. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER OVER OUR SOUTHERN FL
ZONES WHILE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION CONTINUES GENERALLY N
OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INTO THE EVENING WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS SE GA NORTH OF WAYCROSS BY 00Z. THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WET DOWNBURST WINDS WITH SPEEDS 30-60 MPH POSSIBLE AS STORM
TRACK ENE AROUND 20-25 MPH. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY NEARED DAILY HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

TONIGHT...MEAN LAYERING RIDGING WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA AS A MEAN LAYER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER GA. THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL EDGE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN THROUGH 12Z WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS...WHILE MOIST SW FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
INLAND TOWARD THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.
ADVERTISED RAIN AROUND 30-50% FOR SE GA OVERNIGHT....THEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT INCREASE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY TO
30-40% WITH 20% FOR THE REMAINDER OF NE FL THROUGH 12Z SUN. MILD
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S INLAND
TO UPPER 70S RIVER BASIN/COAST.

SUN & SUN NIGHT...MEAN LAYER TROUGH WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND
MEANDER OVER S GA SUNDAY WHILE DEEP LAYER MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES
TO STREAM OVER THE AREA OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT MORNING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTORMS TO EDGE INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...WITH GRADUAL EXPANSION OF
PRECIP INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SE GA AND THE REMAINDER OF NE FL
AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY INCREASES AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY
SLIDES SSE OVER OUR GA ZONES. ADVERTISED HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF
60% IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY...THEN RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING TO THE EAST AND ACROSS OUR SE GA ZONES THROUGH
MIDDAY. SUN EVENING THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL DRIFT FARTHER
SOUTHWARD OVER S GA/N FL WHICH WILL SHUNT THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCE
SWATCH OF 60-70% SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS GUSTY WET DOWNBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL GIVEN INCREASED
SHEAR ALOFT AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. AFTER SUNSET SUN EVENING
RAIN CHANCES AND RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH FROM N-S BUT
WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES OF 20-40% MAINLY ACROSS NE FL
THROUGH SUN NIGHT GIVEN THE LINGERING TROUGH AXIS AND CONTINUED
MOIST AND UNSETTLED SW FLOW OUT OF THE GULF.

MORE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS SUN A BIT LOWER ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
TOWARD ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. ELEVATED HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 DEG
WILL CONTINUE SUN DUE TO DEW PTS HANGING IN THE LOW/MID 70S
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND ATLANTIC COAST. MIN
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED SUN NIGHT DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S RIVER BASIN/COAST. .

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. SOUTHWEST TO WEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
CONVECTION WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN MIGRATE INLAND TO THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING TRANSLATING INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF NE FLORIDA AND MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84 OVER
INTERIOR SE GA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH NE FL MONDAY WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE OVER NE FL ZONES POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON TSTMS SOUTH OF I-10 MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HEIGHTS BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER
FL...SETTING UP FLAT UPR RIDGE OVER THE AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME
DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE BY MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL AT LEAST MAINTAINING ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS EACH
AFTERNOON THAT ARE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE FLORIDA ZONES. WITH
FLAT RIDGE BUILDING OVER AREA...WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPS
TO LWR/MID 90S BY MIDDLE OF WEEK AND MID 90S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR WILL CONTINUE IN CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET
CONVECTION WILL FADE. HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR EVENING TSRA IMPACTING
SSI...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE SHRA/ISOLATED TS WILL
EDGE INLAND FROM THE GULF AGAIN AND MAY IMPACT GNV WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS. BASED ON PERSISTENCE WILL LEAVE MVFR DUE TO SHALLOW
GROUND FOG OUT OF VQQ. TMRW MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS
EXPECTED AND INCLUDED VCTS IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN 16-18Z FOR ALL
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION WHILE A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LINGERS OVER GEORGIA THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW.
TONIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
20 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS OUR OFFSHORE WATERS...FIRST ACROSS
OUR FL WATERS THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS THE SE GA WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. GIVEN SUCH BRIEF DURATION (< 3 HRS) AND THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE SURGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH FLORIDA MID- WEEK. ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND SUN DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  89  73  91 /  60  60  40  30
SSI  77  87  76  87 /  50  70  60  50
JAX  76  90  75  88 /  30  70  60  60
SGJ  76  90  76  86 /  20  60  50  60
GNV  74  90  74  88 /  20  60  60  60
OCF  75  90  75  88 /  20  60  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/PETERSON/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 271805
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...FEW STRONG AFTN/EVENING STORMS FOR SE GA...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUN NIGHT...

THIS AFTERNOON...LWEP STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN SEVERAL CONVECTIVE
BANDS TODAY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND VERY WEAK ROTATING COMMA
HEADS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD OVER SE GA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING MEAN LAYER TROUGH
ACROSS THE SE REGION. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER OVER OUR SOUTHERN FL
ZONES WHILE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION CONTINUES GENERALLY N
OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INTO THE EVENING WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS SE GA NORTH OF WAYCROSS BY 00Z. THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WET DOWNBURST WINDS WITH SPEEDS 30-60 MPH POSSIBLE AS STORM
TRACK ENE AROUND 20-25 MPH. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY NEARED DAILY HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

TONIGHT...MEAN LAYERING RIDGING WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA AS A MEAN LAYER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER GA. THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL EDGE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN THROUGH 12Z WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS...WHILE MOIST SW FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
INLAND TOWARD THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.
ADVERTISED RAIN AROUND 30-50% FOR SE GA OVERNIGHT....THEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT INCREASE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY TO
30-40% WITH 20% FOR THE REMAINDER OF NE FL THROUGH 12Z SUN. MILD
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S INLAND
TO UPPER 70S RIVER BASIN/COAST.

SUN & SUN NIGHT...MEAN LAYER TROUGH WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND
MEANDER OVER S GA SUNDAY WHILE DEEP LAYER MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES
TO STREAM OVER THE AREA OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT MORNING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTORMS TO EDGE INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...WITH GRADUAL EXPANSION OF
PRECIP INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SE GA AND THE REMAINDER OF NE FL
AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY INCREASES AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY
SLIDES SSE OVER OUR GA ZONES. ADVERTISED HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF
60% IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY...THEN RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING TO THE EAST AND ACROSS OUR SE GA ZONES THROUGH
MIDDAY. SUN EVENING THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL DRIFT FARTHER
SOUTHWARD OVER S GA/N FL WHICH WILL SHUNT THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCE
SWATCH OF 60-70% SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS GUSTY WET DOWNBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL GIVEN INCREASED
SHEAR ALOFT AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. AFTER SUNSET SUN EVENING
RAIN CHANCES AND RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH FROM N-S BUT
WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES OF 20-40% MAINLY ACROSS NE FL
THROUGH SUN NIGHT GIVEN THE LINGERING TROUGH AXIS AND CONTINUED
MOIST AND UNSETTLED SW FLOW OUT OF THE GULF.

MORE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS SUN A BIT LOWER ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
TOWARD ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. ELEVATED HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 DEG
WILL CONTINUE SUN DUE TO DEW PTS HANGING IN THE LOW/MID 70S
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND ATLANTIC COAST. MIN
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED SUN NIGHT DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S RIVER BASIN/COAST. .

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. SOUTHWEST TO WEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
CONVECTION WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND THEN MIGRATE INLAND TO THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING TRANSLATING INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF NE FLORIDA AND MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84 OVER
INTERIOR SE GA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH NE FL MONDAY WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE OVER NE FL ZONES POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON TSTMS SOUTH OF I-10 MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HEIGHTS BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER
FL...SETTING UP FLAT UPR RIDGE OVER THE AREA. SHOULD SEE SOME
DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE BY MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
WILL AT LEAST MAINTAINING ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS EACH
AFTERNOON THAT ARE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE FLORIDA ZONES. WITH
FLAT RIDGE BUILDING OVER AREA...WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPS
TO LWR/MID 90S BY MIDDLE OF WEEK AND MID 90S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR WILL CONTINUE IN CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET
CONVECTION WILL FADE. HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR EVENING TSRA IMPACTING
SSI...THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE SHRA/ISOLATED TS WILL
EDGE INLAND FROM THE GULF AGAIN AND MAY IMPACT GNV WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS. BASED ON PERSISTENCE WILL LEAVE MVFR DUE TO SHALLOW
GROUND FOG OUT OF VQQ. TMRW MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS
EXPECTED AND INCLUDED VCTS IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN 16-18Z FOR ALL
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION WHILE A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LINGERS OVER GEORGIA THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW.
TONIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
20 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS OUR OFFSHORE WATERS...FIRST ACROSS
OUR FL WATERS THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS THE SE GA WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. GIVEN SUCH BRIEF DURATION (< 3 HRS) AND THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE SURGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH FLORIDA MID- WEEK. ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND SUN DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  89  73  91 /  60  60  40  30
SSI  77  87  76  87 /  50  70  60  50
JAX  76  90  75  88 /  30  70  60  60
SGJ  76  90  76  86 /  20  60  50  60
GNV  74  90  74  88 /  20  60  60  60
OCF  75  90  75  88 /  20  60  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/PETERSON/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 271417
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1017 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SE GA IN THE AFTN/EVENING...

.UPDATE...DEEP LAYER WSW FLOW WAS STEERING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTORMS INLAND FROM APALACHEE BAY. THE 12Z JAX RAOB
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A MOISTURE LADEN AIRMASS WITH PWAT OF 2
INCHES AND A K INDEX OF 36 UNITS. STORM MOTION WAS TO THE EAST
AROUND 15-20 MPH...SO ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL EXISTS IN
CELLS TODAY...IT WILL BE MORE SHORT-LIVED.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...EXPECT THE NOSE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
EASTWARD AND LIFTING NORTHWARD WHILE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER
SE GA DUE TO IDURNAL INSTABILITY AND INCREASED PASSING LOBES OF
MID LEVEL PVA FROM THE WNW IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING MEAN LAYER
TROUGH. TODAY CONVECTIVE HAZARDS INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NE FL...THEN GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN
SOME HAIL POTENTIAL OVER SE GA THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING.

TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 COAST WITH
NOT MUCH OF A SEA BREEZE EXPECTED DUE TO BREEZY WSW FLOW 15-20
MPH. HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-105 DEG RANGE WITH MOIST
DEW PTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH WAVES OF MVFR DUE TO PASSING
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. CONVECTION WILL DECREASE INTO THE AFTN ACROSS
NE FL WHILE INCREASING OVER SE GA.

&&

.MARINE...SSW WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT WILL PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS
UP TO 15-20 KTS TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF A SAGGING
TROUGH OVER GA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  73  90  71 /  60  60  60  40
SSI  89  76  84  74 /  50  40  50  50
JAX  93  74  90  73 /  40  20  60  50
SGJ  90  75  88  73 /  40  20  60  50
GNV  93  74  90  72 /  40  30  60  60
OCF  93  74  90  74 /  30  30  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/PETERSON/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 271417
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1017 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SE GA IN THE AFTN/EVENING...

.UPDATE...DEEP LAYER WSW FLOW WAS STEERING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTORMS INLAND FROM APALACHEE BAY. THE 12Z JAX RAOB
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A MOISTURE LADEN AIRMASS WITH PWAT OF 2
INCHES AND A K INDEX OF 36 UNITS. STORM MOTION WAS TO THE EAST
AROUND 15-20 MPH...SO ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL EXISTS IN
CELLS TODAY...IT WILL BE MORE SHORT-LIVED.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...EXPECT THE NOSE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
EASTWARD AND LIFTING NORTHWARD WHILE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER
SE GA DUE TO IDURNAL INSTABILITY AND INCREASED PASSING LOBES OF
MID LEVEL PVA FROM THE WNW IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING MEAN LAYER
TROUGH. TODAY CONVECTIVE HAZARDS INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NE FL...THEN GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN
SOME HAIL POTENTIAL OVER SE GA THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING.

TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 COAST WITH
NOT MUCH OF A SEA BREEZE EXPECTED DUE TO BREEZY WSW FLOW 15-20
MPH. HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-105 DEG RANGE WITH MOIST
DEW PTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH WAVES OF MVFR DUE TO PASSING
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. CONVECTION WILL DECREASE INTO THE AFTN ACROSS
NE FL WHILE INCREASING OVER SE GA.

&&

.MARINE...SSW WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT WILL PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS
UP TO 15-20 KTS TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF A SAGGING
TROUGH OVER GA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  73  90  71 /  60  60  60  40
SSI  89  76  84  74 /  50  40  50  50
JAX  93  74  90  73 /  40  20  60  50
SGJ  90  75  88  73 /  40  20  60  50
GNV  93  74  90  72 /  40  30  60  60
OCF  93  74  90  74 /  30  30  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/PETERSON/WALSH




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