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000
FXUS62 KJAX 292002
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
402 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST INLAND FROM THE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER NE FL. MORE ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY RESIDES ACROSS FAR INLAND SECTIONS AS A SHORTWAVE IS
ROTATING AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THESE TWO AREAS OF
CONVECTION MERGING ACROSS INLAND NE FL LATE THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING. THUS...WILL MAXIMIZE POPS WITH NUMEROUS POPS
THERE...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF SE GA. LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH...BUT
SOME POTENTIAL OF MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...BUT
A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WILL PREVAIL.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS AL/WESTERN GA BY SUNDAY AFTN. WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASING SLIGHTLY...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS
SHWRS/TSTMS BY AFTN. NAM IS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE PRODUCING
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL FL. WILL
TEMPER THAT SOLUTION DOWN A BIT...MAXIMIZING POPS IN THE 70
PERCENT RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR NE FL
TO AROUND 90 FOR INTERIOR SE GA WITH A BIT LESS PRECIP COVERAGE.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ERIKA`S REMNANT VORTICITY CENTER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FL KEYS ON
SUNDAY  EVENING...AND SHOULD BE STEERED N-NW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
ATLANTIC RIDGING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FUNNELED NORTHWARD AS S-SE
FLOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS...WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES AND APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD
THROUGHOUT OUR REGION. NUMEROUS EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INLAND ON SUN AFTERNOON WILL WANE AND SHIFT IN THE COASTAL
COUNTIES...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OFFSHORE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE MID 70S.

AS ERIKA`S REMNANTS MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON
MON...OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...WITH BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE INTO OUR REGION...WITH COASTAL
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SHIFTING INLAND BY
AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS WERE USED FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. CLOUD
COVER AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1-2" ARE EXPECTED FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH
MON NIGHT...WITH MUCH HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL WHERE HEAVIER ECHOES POTENTIALLY TRAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT...DEPENDENT
ON HOW ORGANIZED THE CONVECTIVE BANDING BECOMES AS ERIKA`S REMNANTS
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF BY MON EVENING. FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FL COUNTIES IF WEEKEND RAIN TOTALS ARE
SUBSTANTIAL. THE ORGANIZATION OF ERIKA`S REMNANTS WILL ALSO
DETERMINE HOW DIURNAL OUR CONVECTION IS HEADING INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS ON MON NIGHT. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM COULD CONTINUE TO FEED
BANDS INTO OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD REQURE US TO SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE
POPS FROM OUR CURRENT DIURNAL DISTRIBUTION.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FL
PENINSULA TUES AND WED...RESULTING IN WEAKENING STEERING CURRENTS
LOCALLY THAT MAY KEEP ERIKA`S REMNANT MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS IN THE FORECAST ON A
DIURNAL BASIS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 12Z ECMWF SHOWS A
BRIEF DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS BY LATE WED THROUGH THURS...BUT THEN
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES MAY APPROACH
OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS MOST SUGGESTED
BY THE 12Z ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING IN PLACE
LOCALLY. WILL CONTINUE WITH DIURNAL DISTRIBUTION OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS POPS OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...WITH SCATTERED
POPS FOR SOUTHEAST GA. PLENTY OF CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S ON TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL THEN TREND BACK TOWARDS 90
AT INLAND LOCATIONS LATE IN THE WEEK...DEPENDENT ON HOW EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS EACH DAY. PLENTY OF HUMIDITY WILL KEEP LOWS IN
THE 70S REGION-WIDE INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN INTO
THE EVENING IN SHWRS/TSTMS. FOR LATE EVENING ONWARD...VFR WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...WITH CAUTION
LEVEL CONDITIONS LIKELY OFFSHORE FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FOR EARLY/MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  90  73  89 /  60  60  40  60
SSI  77  82  75  86 /  50  70  70  80
JAX  75  86  74  87 /  50  70  40  70
SGJ  75  84  76  86 /  50  70  50  80
GNV  72  87  72  87 /  60  70  30  70
OCF  73  88  72  88 /  60  70  30  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/NELSON/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 292002
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
402 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST INLAND FROM THE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER NE FL. MORE ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY RESIDES ACROSS FAR INLAND SECTIONS AS A SHORTWAVE IS
ROTATING AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THESE TWO AREAS OF
CONVECTION MERGING ACROSS INLAND NE FL LATE THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING. THUS...WILL MAXIMIZE POPS WITH NUMEROUS POPS
THERE...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF SE GA. LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH...BUT
SOME POTENTIAL OF MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...BUT
A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WILL PREVAIL.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS AL/WESTERN GA BY SUNDAY AFTN. WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASING SLIGHTLY...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS
SHWRS/TSTMS BY AFTN. NAM IS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE PRODUCING
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL FL. WILL
TEMPER THAT SOLUTION DOWN A BIT...MAXIMIZING POPS IN THE 70
PERCENT RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR NE FL
TO AROUND 90 FOR INTERIOR SE GA WITH A BIT LESS PRECIP COVERAGE.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ERIKA`S REMNANT VORTICITY CENTER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FL KEYS ON
SUNDAY  EVENING...AND SHOULD BE STEERED N-NW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
ATLANTIC RIDGING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FUNNELED NORTHWARD AS S-SE
FLOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS...WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES AND APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD
THROUGHOUT OUR REGION. NUMEROUS EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INLAND ON SUN AFTERNOON WILL WANE AND SHIFT IN THE COASTAL
COUNTIES...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OFFSHORE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE MID 70S.

AS ERIKA`S REMNANTS MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON
MON...OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...WITH BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE INTO OUR REGION...WITH COASTAL
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SHIFTING INLAND BY
AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS WERE USED FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. CLOUD
COVER AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1-2" ARE EXPECTED FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH
MON NIGHT...WITH MUCH HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL WHERE HEAVIER ECHOES POTENTIALLY TRAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT...DEPENDENT
ON HOW ORGANIZED THE CONVECTIVE BANDING BECOMES AS ERIKA`S REMNANTS
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF BY MON EVENING. FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FL COUNTIES IF WEEKEND RAIN TOTALS ARE
SUBSTANTIAL. THE ORGANIZATION OF ERIKA`S REMNANTS WILL ALSO
DETERMINE HOW DIURNAL OUR CONVECTION IS HEADING INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS ON MON NIGHT. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM COULD CONTINUE TO FEED
BANDS INTO OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD REQURE US TO SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE
POPS FROM OUR CURRENT DIURNAL DISTRIBUTION.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FL
PENINSULA TUES AND WED...RESULTING IN WEAKENING STEERING CURRENTS
LOCALLY THAT MAY KEEP ERIKA`S REMNANT MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS IN THE FORECAST ON A
DIURNAL BASIS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 12Z ECMWF SHOWS A
BRIEF DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS BY LATE WED THROUGH THURS...BUT THEN
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES MAY APPROACH
OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS MOST SUGGESTED
BY THE 12Z ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING IN PLACE
LOCALLY. WILL CONTINUE WITH DIURNAL DISTRIBUTION OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS POPS OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...WITH SCATTERED
POPS FOR SOUTHEAST GA. PLENTY OF CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S ON TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL THEN TREND BACK TOWARDS 90
AT INLAND LOCATIONS LATE IN THE WEEK...DEPENDENT ON HOW EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS EACH DAY. PLENTY OF HUMIDITY WILL KEEP LOWS IN
THE 70S REGION-WIDE INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN INTO
THE EVENING IN SHWRS/TSTMS. FOR LATE EVENING ONWARD...VFR WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...WITH CAUTION
LEVEL CONDITIONS LIKELY OFFSHORE FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FOR EARLY/MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  90  73  89 /  60  60  40  60
SSI  77  82  75  86 /  50  70  70  80
JAX  75  86  74  87 /  50  70  40  70
SGJ  75  84  76  86 /  50  70  50  80
GNV  72  87  72  87 /  60  70  30  70
OCF  73  88  72  88 /  60  70  30  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/NELSON/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 292002
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
402 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST INLAND FROM THE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER NE FL. MORE ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY RESIDES ACROSS FAR INLAND SECTIONS AS A SHORTWAVE IS
ROTATING AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THESE TWO AREAS OF
CONVECTION MERGING ACROSS INLAND NE FL LATE THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING. THUS...WILL MAXIMIZE POPS WITH NUMEROUS POPS
THERE...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF SE GA. LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH...BUT
SOME POTENTIAL OF MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...BUT
A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WILL PREVAIL.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS AL/WESTERN GA BY SUNDAY AFTN. WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASING SLIGHTLY...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS
SHWRS/TSTMS BY AFTN. NAM IS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE PRODUCING
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL FL. WILL
TEMPER THAT SOLUTION DOWN A BIT...MAXIMIZING POPS IN THE 70
PERCENT RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR NE FL
TO AROUND 90 FOR INTERIOR SE GA WITH A BIT LESS PRECIP COVERAGE.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ERIKA`S REMNANT VORTICITY CENTER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FL KEYS ON
SUNDAY  EVENING...AND SHOULD BE STEERED N-NW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
ATLANTIC RIDGING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FUNNELED NORTHWARD AS S-SE
FLOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS...WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES AND APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD
THROUGHOUT OUR REGION. NUMEROUS EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INLAND ON SUN AFTERNOON WILL WANE AND SHIFT IN THE COASTAL
COUNTIES...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OFFSHORE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE MID 70S.

AS ERIKA`S REMNANTS MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON
MON...OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...WITH BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE INTO OUR REGION...WITH COASTAL
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SHIFTING INLAND BY
AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS WERE USED FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. CLOUD
COVER AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1-2" ARE EXPECTED FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH
MON NIGHT...WITH MUCH HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL WHERE HEAVIER ECHOES POTENTIALLY TRAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT...DEPENDENT
ON HOW ORGANIZED THE CONVECTIVE BANDING BECOMES AS ERIKA`S REMNANTS
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF BY MON EVENING. FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FL COUNTIES IF WEEKEND RAIN TOTALS ARE
SUBSTANTIAL. THE ORGANIZATION OF ERIKA`S REMNANTS WILL ALSO
DETERMINE HOW DIURNAL OUR CONVECTION IS HEADING INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS ON MON NIGHT. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM COULD CONTINUE TO FEED
BANDS INTO OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD REQURE US TO SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE
POPS FROM OUR CURRENT DIURNAL DISTRIBUTION.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FL
PENINSULA TUES AND WED...RESULTING IN WEAKENING STEERING CURRENTS
LOCALLY THAT MAY KEEP ERIKA`S REMNANT MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS IN THE FORECAST ON A
DIURNAL BASIS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 12Z ECMWF SHOWS A
BRIEF DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS BY LATE WED THROUGH THURS...BUT THEN
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES MAY APPROACH
OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS MOST SUGGESTED
BY THE 12Z ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING IN PLACE
LOCALLY. WILL CONTINUE WITH DIURNAL DISTRIBUTION OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS POPS OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...WITH SCATTERED
POPS FOR SOUTHEAST GA. PLENTY OF CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S ON TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL THEN TREND BACK TOWARDS 90
AT INLAND LOCATIONS LATE IN THE WEEK...DEPENDENT ON HOW EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS EACH DAY. PLENTY OF HUMIDITY WILL KEEP LOWS IN
THE 70S REGION-WIDE INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN INTO
THE EVENING IN SHWRS/TSTMS. FOR LATE EVENING ONWARD...VFR WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...WITH CAUTION
LEVEL CONDITIONS LIKELY OFFSHORE FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FOR EARLY/MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  90  73  89 /  60  60  40  60
SSI  77  82  75  86 /  50  70  70  80
JAX  75  86  74  87 /  50  70  40  70
SGJ  75  84  76  86 /  50  70  50  80
GNV  72  87  72  87 /  60  70  30  70
OCF  73  88  72  88 /  60  70  30  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/NELSON/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 292002
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
402 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST INLAND FROM THE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER NE FL. MORE ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY RESIDES ACROSS FAR INLAND SECTIONS AS A SHORTWAVE IS
ROTATING AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THESE TWO AREAS OF
CONVECTION MERGING ACROSS INLAND NE FL LATE THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING. THUS...WILL MAXIMIZE POPS WITH NUMEROUS POPS
THERE...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF SE GA. LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH...BUT
SOME POTENTIAL OF MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...BUT
A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WILL PREVAIL.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS AL/WESTERN GA BY SUNDAY AFTN. WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASING SLIGHTLY...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS
SHWRS/TSTMS BY AFTN. NAM IS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE PRODUCING
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL FL. WILL
TEMPER THAT SOLUTION DOWN A BIT...MAXIMIZING POPS IN THE 70
PERCENT RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR NE FL
TO AROUND 90 FOR INTERIOR SE GA WITH A BIT LESS PRECIP COVERAGE.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ERIKA`S REMNANT VORTICITY CENTER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FL KEYS ON
SUNDAY  EVENING...AND SHOULD BE STEERED N-NW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
ATLANTIC RIDGING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FUNNELED NORTHWARD AS S-SE
FLOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS...WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES AND APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD
THROUGHOUT OUR REGION. NUMEROUS EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INLAND ON SUN AFTERNOON WILL WANE AND SHIFT IN THE COASTAL
COUNTIES...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OFFSHORE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE MID 70S.

AS ERIKA`S REMNANTS MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON
MON...OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...WITH BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE INTO OUR REGION...WITH COASTAL
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SHIFTING INLAND BY
AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS WERE USED FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. CLOUD
COVER AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1-2" ARE EXPECTED FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH
MON NIGHT...WITH MUCH HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL WHERE HEAVIER ECHOES POTENTIALLY TRAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT...DEPENDENT
ON HOW ORGANIZED THE CONVECTIVE BANDING BECOMES AS ERIKA`S REMNANTS
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF BY MON EVENING. FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FL COUNTIES IF WEEKEND RAIN TOTALS ARE
SUBSTANTIAL. THE ORGANIZATION OF ERIKA`S REMNANTS WILL ALSO
DETERMINE HOW DIURNAL OUR CONVECTION IS HEADING INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS ON MON NIGHT. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM COULD CONTINUE TO FEED
BANDS INTO OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD REQURE US TO SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE
POPS FROM OUR CURRENT DIURNAL DISTRIBUTION.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FL
PENINSULA TUES AND WED...RESULTING IN WEAKENING STEERING CURRENTS
LOCALLY THAT MAY KEEP ERIKA`S REMNANT MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS IN THE FORECAST ON A
DIURNAL BASIS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 12Z ECMWF SHOWS A
BRIEF DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS BY LATE WED THROUGH THURS...BUT THEN
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES MAY APPROACH
OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS MOST SUGGESTED
BY THE 12Z ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING IN PLACE
LOCALLY. WILL CONTINUE WITH DIURNAL DISTRIBUTION OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS POPS OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...WITH SCATTERED
POPS FOR SOUTHEAST GA. PLENTY OF CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S ON TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL THEN TREND BACK TOWARDS 90
AT INLAND LOCATIONS LATE IN THE WEEK...DEPENDENT ON HOW EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS EACH DAY. PLENTY OF HUMIDITY WILL KEEP LOWS IN
THE 70S REGION-WIDE INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN INTO
THE EVENING IN SHWRS/TSTMS. FOR LATE EVENING ONWARD...VFR WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...WITH CAUTION
LEVEL CONDITIONS LIKELY OFFSHORE FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FOR EARLY/MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  90  73  89 /  60  60  40  60
SSI  77  82  75  86 /  50  70  70  80
JAX  75  86  74  87 /  50  70  40  70
SGJ  75  84  76  86 /  50  70  50  80
GNV  72  87  72  87 /  60  70  30  70
OCF  73  88  72  88 /  60  70  30  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/NELSON/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 291240
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
830 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS PREVAIL ACROSS SE GA
THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. WITH ADDITIONAL IMPULSES
CROSSING THE AREA LATER TODAY...ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PER THE 2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE 12Z KJAX
SOUNDING...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN. PER FCST
TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE NUDGED
TIMING OF MAXIMUM POPS A BIT LATER...KEEPING POPS ACROSS NE FL
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRECIP
COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT HEATING TODAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW LOWER 90S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL WITH A BIT LESS PRECIP
COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN...TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE REQUIRED
18-23Z. AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
E.SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE...WITH CAUTION LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE
TNGT/SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  70  89  72 /  70  60  50  20
SSI  85  77  86  75 /  70  70  60  50
JAX  88  73  88  73 /  80  60  60  30
SGJ  87  75  86  76 /  70  50  70  50
GNV  89  72  90  72 /  70  40  60  20
OCF  90  72  90  72 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/COMBS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 291240
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
830 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS PREVAIL ACROSS SE GA
THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. WITH ADDITIONAL IMPULSES
CROSSING THE AREA LATER TODAY...ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PER THE 2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE 12Z KJAX
SOUNDING...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN. PER FCST
TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE NUDGED
TIMING OF MAXIMUM POPS A BIT LATER...KEEPING POPS ACROSS NE FL
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRECIP
COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT HEATING TODAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW LOWER 90S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL WITH A BIT LESS PRECIP
COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN...TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE REQUIRED
18-23Z. AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
E.SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE...WITH CAUTION LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE
TNGT/SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  70  89  72 /  70  60  50  20
SSI  85  77  86  75 /  70  70  60  50
JAX  88  73  88  73 /  80  60  60  30
SGJ  87  75  86  76 /  70  50  70  50
GNV  89  72  90  72 /  70  40  60  20
OCF  90  72  90  72 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/COMBS





000
FXUS62 KJAX 291240
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
830 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS PREVAIL ACROSS SE GA
THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. WITH ADDITIONAL IMPULSES
CROSSING THE AREA LATER TODAY...ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PER THE 2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE 12Z KJAX
SOUNDING...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN. PER FCST
TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE NUDGED
TIMING OF MAXIMUM POPS A BIT LATER...KEEPING POPS ACROSS NE FL
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRECIP
COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT HEATING TODAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW LOWER 90S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL WITH A BIT LESS PRECIP
COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN...TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE REQUIRED
18-23Z. AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
E.SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE...WITH CAUTION LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE
TNGT/SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  70  89  72 /  70  60  50  20
SSI  85  77  86  75 /  70  70  60  50
JAX  88  73  88  73 /  80  60  60  30
SGJ  87  75  86  76 /  70  50  70  50
GNV  89  72  90  72 /  70  40  60  20
OCF  90  72  90  72 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/COMBS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 291240
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
830 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS PREVAIL ACROSS SE GA
THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. WITH ADDITIONAL IMPULSES
CROSSING THE AREA LATER TODAY...ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PER THE 2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE 12Z KJAX
SOUNDING...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN. PER FCST
TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE NUDGED
TIMING OF MAXIMUM POPS A BIT LATER...KEEPING POPS ACROSS NE FL
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRECIP
COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT HEATING TODAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW LOWER 90S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL WITH A BIT LESS PRECIP
COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN...TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE REQUIRED
18-23Z. AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
E.SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE...WITH CAUTION LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE
TNGT/SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  70  89  72 /  70  60  50  20
SSI  85  77  86  75 /  70  70  60  50
JAX  88  73  88  73 /  80  60  60  30
SGJ  87  75  86  76 /  70  50  70  50
GNV  89  72  90  72 /  70  40  60  20
OCF  90  72  90  72 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/COMBS





000
FXUS62 KJAX 291230
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
830 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD
THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS PREVAIL ACROSS SE GA
THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. WITH ADDITIONAL IMPULSES
CROSSING THE AREA LATER TODAY...ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PER THE 2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE 12Z KJAX
SOUNDING...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN. PER FCST
TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE NUDGED
TIMING OF MAXIMUM POPS A BIT LATER...KEEPING POPS ACROSS NE FL
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRECIP
COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT HEATING TODAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW LOWER 90S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL WITH A BIT LESS PRECIP
COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN...TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE REQUIRED
18-23Z. AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
E.SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE...WITH CAUTION LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE
TNGT/SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  70  89  72 /  70  60  50  20
SSI  85  77  86  75 /  70  70  60  50
JAX  88  73  88  73 /  80  60  60  30
SGJ  87  75  86  76 /  70  50  70  50
GNV  89  72  90  72 /  70  40  60  20
OCF  90  72  90  72 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/COMBS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 291230
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
830 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD
THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS PREVAIL ACROSS SE GA
THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. WITH ADDITIONAL IMPULSES
CROSSING THE AREA LATER TODAY...ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PER THE 2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE 12Z KJAX
SOUNDING...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN. PER FCST
TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE NUDGED
TIMING OF MAXIMUM POPS A BIT LATER...KEEPING POPS ACROSS NE FL
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRECIP
COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT HEATING TODAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW LOWER 90S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL WITH A BIT LESS PRECIP
COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN...TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE REQUIRED
18-23Z. AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
E.SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE...WITH CAUTION LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE
TNGT/SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  70  89  72 /  70  60  50  20
SSI  85  77  86  75 /  70  70  60  50
JAX  88  73  88  73 /  80  60  60  30
SGJ  87  75  86  76 /  70  50  70  50
GNV  89  72  90  72 /  70  40  60  20
OCF  90  72  90  72 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/COMBS





000
FXUS62 KJAX 290701
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
301 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD
THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MOIST SOUTHEAST
STEERING FLOW WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER INLAND AREAS AND THE
ATLC COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. LIKELY TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION BUT SOME PATCHY 3-5 MILE
VSBYS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN ZFP/GRIDS OR HWO. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

TODAY...FAVORABLE CONDS FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS AS MID/UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER LOWER MS VALLEY WITH
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NE FL/SE GA AND EVENING SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM WIDESPREAD PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. THIS
UPPER LEVEL AIR PATTERN FAVORS UPWARD MOTION AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AND EXPECT THIS TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP TRIGGER
RAINFALL COVERAGE OF 60-80% AREA-WIDE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE IN A GENERAL SOUTH TO NORTH MOTION AROUND 10-15 MPH OR SO
WITH PRIMARY THREAT STILL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING AND
TRAINING OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...OF COURSE A FEW COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING DUE TO DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO HELP INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -7C
TO -8C RANGE...STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. EXPECT
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO SE GA COASTAL
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND THROUGH
THE DAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING...FIRST ACROSS INLD SE GA...THEN
ACROSS INLD NE FL BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...IN THE MID 80S ALONG
THE COAST...AND UPPER 80S INLAND...WITH A FEW NEAR 90 DEGREE
READINGS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD NE FL WHERE CONVECTION
WILL KICK OFF LAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT INLAND SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY FADE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND GENERALLY ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH
ACTIVITY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A FEW
IMPACTING THE COASTAL COUNTIES AT TIMES...AND WITH THE EXTREMELY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN COOLED LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AGAIN.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND MONDAY/...
A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA
AND SET THE STAGE FOR A WET PATTERN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WE LEANED
HEAVILY ON THE LATEST EUROPEAN SOLUTION WHICH TAKES WHAT IS LEFT
OF ERIKA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS MAINLY AN OPEN WAVE
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO OUR AREA. DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHILE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN MORE EASTERLY. INCREASED COASTAL
CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN
FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COASTAL CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAIN LIKELY REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT RAIN
IS LIKELY AT THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DIURNAL PATTERN
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...WITH A
FOCUS ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ALONG THE
SEABREEZES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE PLACED
SOME LIGHT FOG AT KGNV WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUD DECK TO ACCOUNT
FOR SIMILAR CONDS TO YDAY MORNING...BUT OVERALL THICKER HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION AROUND
SUNRISE. WITH PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IT WONT TAKE LONG FOR
VCSH TO FORM THIS MORNING WITH VCTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. STILL
HOLDING OFF FROM PLACING TEMPO GROUPS IN TAF SET EVEN WITH 60-70%
POPS SINCE STILL JUST A GUESS TO PREDICT EXACT 2-4 HR TIME FRAME
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE FOR ANY SPECIFIC TSTM ACTIVITY...BUT COULD SEE
SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
E/SE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY PUSHED
SEAS INTO THE 3-5 FT RANGE THIS WEEKEND AND WILL POSSIBLY REACH
4-6 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE SCEC HEADLINES REQUIRED.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK IN THE ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SURF GENERALLY 2-4 FT.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING: FULL MOON PEAKS TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ATLC COAST AND LOWER ST JOHNS
RIVER WHICH ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BY THE ONSHORE FLOW BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING TO REACH COASTAL FLOOD LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ABUNDANT RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP GROUND CONDITIONS
NEAR SATURATION IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE BLACK CREEK AND UPPER SANTA
FE RIVER BASIN ARE ALREADY AT ELEVATED WATER LEVELS DUE TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL THIS AUGUST. HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK ALREADY ISSUED ON
FRIDAY HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING FROM
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY CERTAIN RANGE OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

WATER LEVELS FOR NE FL/SE GA RIVERS AND ATLANTIC COASTAL AND ST
JOHNS RIVER TIDAL STATIONS CAN BE FOUND AT...

WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=JAX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  70  89  72 /  70  60  50  20
SSI  85  77  86  75 /  70  70  60  50
JAX  88  73  88  73 /  80  60  60  30
SGJ  87  75  86  76 /  70  50  70  50
GNV  89  72  90  72 /  70  40  60  20
OCF  90  72  90  72 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/





000
FXUS62 KJAX 290701
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
301 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD
THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MOIST SOUTHEAST
STEERING FLOW WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER INLAND AREAS AND THE
ATLC COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. LIKELY TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION BUT SOME PATCHY 3-5 MILE
VSBYS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN ZFP/GRIDS OR HWO. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

TODAY...FAVORABLE CONDS FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS AS MID/UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER LOWER MS VALLEY WITH
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NE FL/SE GA AND EVENING SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM WIDESPREAD PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. THIS
UPPER LEVEL AIR PATTERN FAVORS UPWARD MOTION AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AND EXPECT THIS TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP TRIGGER
RAINFALL COVERAGE OF 60-80% AREA-WIDE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE IN A GENERAL SOUTH TO NORTH MOTION AROUND 10-15 MPH OR SO
WITH PRIMARY THREAT STILL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING AND
TRAINING OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...OF COURSE A FEW COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING DUE TO DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO HELP INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -7C
TO -8C RANGE...STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. EXPECT
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO SE GA COASTAL
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND THROUGH
THE DAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING...FIRST ACROSS INLD SE GA...THEN
ACROSS INLD NE FL BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...IN THE MID 80S ALONG
THE COAST...AND UPPER 80S INLAND...WITH A FEW NEAR 90 DEGREE
READINGS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD NE FL WHERE CONVECTION
WILL KICK OFF LAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT INLAND SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY FADE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND GENERALLY ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH
ACTIVITY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A FEW
IMPACTING THE COASTAL COUNTIES AT TIMES...AND WITH THE EXTREMELY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN COOLED LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AGAIN.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND MONDAY/...
A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA
AND SET THE STAGE FOR A WET PATTERN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WE LEANED
HEAVILY ON THE LATEST EUROPEAN SOLUTION WHICH TAKES WHAT IS LEFT
OF ERIKA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS MAINLY AN OPEN WAVE
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO OUR AREA. DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHILE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN MORE EASTERLY. INCREASED COASTAL
CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN
FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COASTAL CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAIN LIKELY REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT RAIN
IS LIKELY AT THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DIURNAL PATTERN
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...WITH A
FOCUS ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ALONG THE
SEABREEZES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE PLACED
SOME LIGHT FOG AT KGNV WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUD DECK TO ACCOUNT
FOR SIMILAR CONDS TO YDAY MORNING...BUT OVERALL THICKER HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION AROUND
SUNRISE. WITH PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IT WONT TAKE LONG FOR
VCSH TO FORM THIS MORNING WITH VCTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. STILL
HOLDING OFF FROM PLACING TEMPO GROUPS IN TAF SET EVEN WITH 60-70%
POPS SINCE STILL JUST A GUESS TO PREDICT EXACT 2-4 HR TIME FRAME
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE FOR ANY SPECIFIC TSTM ACTIVITY...BUT COULD SEE
SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
E/SE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY PUSHED
SEAS INTO THE 3-5 FT RANGE THIS WEEKEND AND WILL POSSIBLY REACH
4-6 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE SCEC HEADLINES REQUIRED.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK IN THE ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SURF GENERALLY 2-4 FT.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING: FULL MOON PEAKS TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ATLC COAST AND LOWER ST JOHNS
RIVER WHICH ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BY THE ONSHORE FLOW BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING TO REACH COASTAL FLOOD LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ABUNDANT RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP GROUND CONDITIONS
NEAR SATURATION IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE BLACK CREEK AND UPPER SANTA
FE RIVER BASIN ARE ALREADY AT ELEVATED WATER LEVELS DUE TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL THIS AUGUST. HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK ALREADY ISSUED ON
FRIDAY HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING FROM
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY CERTAIN RANGE OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

WATER LEVELS FOR NE FL/SE GA RIVERS AND ATLANTIC COASTAL AND ST
JOHNS RIVER TIDAL STATIONS CAN BE FOUND AT...

WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=JAX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  70  89  72 /  70  60  50  20
SSI  85  77  86  75 /  70  70  60  50
JAX  88  73  88  73 /  80  60  60  30
SGJ  87  75  86  76 /  70  50  70  50
GNV  89  72  90  72 /  70  40  60  20
OCF  90  72  90  72 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/




000
FXUS62 KJAX 290129
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
929 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FADE
OUT ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...CONVERGING
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL MOVE ASHORE THE COASTAL COUNTIES
BEFORE DISSIPATING. THUS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS TONIGHT BUT WILL KEEP POPS GOING FOR THE COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...HAVE VCSH GOING AT MOST TAF SITES TONIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WHICH MAY AFFECT SITES ALONG THE COAST (SSI
AND SGJ). OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF IT WILL PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT BUT NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY EAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: ELEVATED RISK ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  89  73  89 /  30  60  30  60
SSI  76  87  76  85 /  50  60  40  60
JAX  72  89  74  87 /  40  60  30  60
SGJ  75  87  77  86 /  60  60  30  60
GNV  71  89  73  89 /  60  60  20  60
OCF  72  89  73  89 /  60  70  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS/RW





000
FXUS62 KJAX 290129
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
929 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FADE
OUT ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...CONVERGING
ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL MOVE ASHORE THE COASTAL COUNTIES
BEFORE DISSIPATING. THUS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS TONIGHT BUT WILL KEEP POPS GOING FOR THE COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...HAVE VCSH GOING AT MOST TAF SITES TONIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WHICH MAY AFFECT SITES ALONG THE COAST (SSI
AND SGJ). OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF IT WILL PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT BUT NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY EAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: ELEVATED RISK ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  89  73  89 /  30  60  30  60
SSI  76  87  76  85 /  50  60  40  60
JAX  72  89  74  87 /  40  60  30  60
SGJ  75  87  77  86 /  60  60  30  60
GNV  71  89  73  89 /  60  60  20  60
OCF  72  89  73  89 /  60  70  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS/RW




000
FXUS62 KJAX 282006
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
406 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...ERIKA MAY BRING FLOODING RAINS TO OUR REGION NEXT WEEK...

.CURRENTLY...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM COASTAL GEORGIA SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE
(1023 MILLIBARS) WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA.
ALOFT...THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES HAS CUTOFF INTO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS CREATING STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY
ABOVE 400 MILLIBARS (25000 FEET). ATLANTIC RIDGING CENTERED
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA WAS BUILDING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS.
CONVECTION THAT INITIATED ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE THIS MORNING SENT A LARGE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH AND WESTWARD HAS SPARKED SLOW MOVING STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE OCMULGEE/ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN IN
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ADDITIONAL SLOW MOVING CONVECTION HAS
SUNK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS HAS HELD TEMPERATURES TO THE
85-90 RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.

.NEAR TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)...
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH CONVECTION NEAR
THE FL/GA BORDER WESTWARD...WITH COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SETTING UP
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR BY
EARLY EVENING. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONVERGENT E-SE LOW-
LEVEL WINDS WILL REDEVELOP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE INTO
THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INLAND
CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY WANE. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...LIMITING FOG
FORMATION. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.

A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE FL PENINSULA WILL
ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON SATURDAY AS ATLANTIC RIDGING
BUILDS WESTWARD...SWITCHING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AND ESTABLISHING A VEERING WIND PROFILE. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE ONGOING IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING...BECOMING
NUMEROUS OVER INLAND SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF OVER THE FL BIG
BEND AND INLAND SOUTH GA. SOME DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET. COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN
PROMOTE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30-50 MPH AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER AND/OR SLOWER MOVING
ACTIVITY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... WEAK MID
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE TO OUR WEST AS WESTERN EXTENT
OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE FL PENINSULA SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY TO START THE DAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND COASTAL COUNTIES AND SPREAD INLAND DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST WITH EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING 15 TO
20 MPH. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...LONG TERM PERIOD
FORECAST IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE STILL INCONSISTENT
WITH HANDLING THE PROGRESSION OF T.S ERIKA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT NHC TRACK BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND TURNING TO THE NORTH AND MOVING UP THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A TROPICAL
STORM. THIS COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY IF THE STORM WEAKENS AS IT
PASSES OVER HISPANIOLA AND INTERACTS WITH A PERSISTENT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PROFILE...POSSIBLY WEAKENING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE THIS
WEEKEND. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SOLUTION SIMILAR
TO THIS WITH AN OPEN WAVE PASSING OVER THE KEYS AND SOUTHERN FL
PENINSULA ON SUNDAY THEN ENTERING THE GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHERE IT BECOMES MOSTLY STATIONARY. EVEN IF THE 12Z RUNS PLAY OUT
AND THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GOMEX THE LOCAL AREA COULD STILL SEE
ISSUES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING AS MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW BLANKETS THE FL PENINSULA. CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK...STRENGTH...AND TIMING SHOULD INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND AT WHICH POINT ACTUAL IMPACTS FOR THE LOCAL AREA CAN
BE ESTABLISHED. UNTIL THEN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR T.S ERIKA AND ITS PROGRESSION.

WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST IN
THIS PERIOD CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. ELEVATED RAIN
CHANCES BEGIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN COASTAL
AREAS AND ACROSS NE FL. BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHER WINDS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW WHICH
WHERE THE ACTUAL CENTER WILL BE IS UP IN THE AIR AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES...ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET AT THE DUVAL COUNTY
TERMINALS...GNV...AND SSI AS SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY
BRING WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY AT SGJ...ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY AVOID THAT TERMINAL THROUGH AT
LEAST 00Z. KEPT VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MOST TERMINALS AFTER 00Z.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MOSTLY EAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS
WILL DECREASE AT VQQ AND GNV OVERNIGHT...AND WILL PERSIST AT
SSI...CRG...AND SGJ.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
3-4 FT RANGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS OUR GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATE
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL APPROACH OF ERIKA TOWARDS THE FL
PENINSULA...ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT BY LATE SUNDAY. TIMING OF THESE INCREASES
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND ARE PREDICATED ON THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY
OF ERIKA...BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN LONG RANGE PREDICTIONS OF ERIKA AND POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH WINDS/SEAS FOR ANY DETAILS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH WORDING FOR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND ANY CHANGES WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS: ELEVATED RISK ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.

SURF ZONE/TIDES: FULL MOON THIS SATURDAY...COMBINED WITH DEEPENING
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ENHANCE ALREADY ELEVATED TIDAL LEVELS ALONG
THE COAST...BUT COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ERIKA PRODUCED A PROLIFIC RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT EXPECTED TO
COLLAPSE NEXT WEEK OVER OUR REGION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT
ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS WILL SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY NEAR OR OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...POSSIBLY BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WE HIGHLIGHTED
THIS THREAT THIS MORNING IN A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK PRODUCT...WITH
THE THREAT FOR MAJOR FLOODING OCCURRING INITIALLY ON FAST RISING
TRIBUTARIES SUCH AS BLACK CREEK AND THE UPPER SANTA FE
RIVER...WHICH ALREADY HAVE ENHANCED FLOWS LEADING INTO THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  89  73  89 /  20  60  30  60
SSI  76  87  76  85 /  50  60  40  60
JAX  72  89  74  87 /  40  60  30  60
SGJ  75  87  77  86 /  40  60  30  60
GNV  71  89  73  89 /  20  60  20  60
OCF  72  89  73  89 /  30  70  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

GUILLET/NELSON/WALSH/KENNEDY





000
FXUS62 KJAX 282006
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
406 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...ERIKA MAY BRING FLOODING RAINS TO OUR REGION NEXT WEEK...

.CURRENTLY...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM COASTAL GEORGIA SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE
(1023 MILLIBARS) WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA.
ALOFT...THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES HAS CUTOFF INTO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS CREATING STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY
ABOVE 400 MILLIBARS (25000 FEET). ATLANTIC RIDGING CENTERED
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA WAS BUILDING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS.
CONVECTION THAT INITIATED ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE THIS MORNING SENT A LARGE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH AND WESTWARD HAS SPARKED SLOW MOVING STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE OCMULGEE/ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN IN
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ADDITIONAL SLOW MOVING CONVECTION HAS
SUNK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS HAS HELD TEMPERATURES TO THE
85-90 RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.

.NEAR TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)...
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH CONVECTION NEAR
THE FL/GA BORDER WESTWARD...WITH COLLIDING BOUNDARIES SETTING UP
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR BY
EARLY EVENING. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONVERGENT E-SE LOW-
LEVEL WINDS WILL REDEVELOP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE INTO
THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INLAND
CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY WANE. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...LIMITING FOG
FORMATION. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.

A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE FL PENINSULA WILL
ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON SATURDAY AS ATLANTIC RIDGING
BUILDS WESTWARD...SWITCHING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AND ESTABLISHING A VEERING WIND PROFILE. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE ONGOING IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING...BECOMING
NUMEROUS OVER INLAND SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF OVER THE FL BIG
BEND AND INLAND SOUTH GA. SOME DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET. COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN
PROMOTE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30-50 MPH AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER AND/OR SLOWER MOVING
ACTIVITY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... WEAK MID
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE TO OUR WEST AS WESTERN EXTENT
OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE FL PENINSULA SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WHICH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY TO START THE DAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND COASTAL COUNTIES AND SPREAD INLAND DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COAST WITH EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING 15 TO
20 MPH. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...LONG TERM PERIOD
FORECAST IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE STILL INCONSISTENT
WITH HANDLING THE PROGRESSION OF T.S ERIKA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT NHC TRACK BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND TURNING TO THE NORTH AND MOVING UP THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A TROPICAL
STORM. THIS COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY IF THE STORM WEAKENS AS IT
PASSES OVER HISPANIOLA AND INTERACTS WITH A PERSISTENT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PROFILE...POSSIBLY WEAKENING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE THIS
WEEKEND. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SOLUTION SIMILAR
TO THIS WITH AN OPEN WAVE PASSING OVER THE KEYS AND SOUTHERN FL
PENINSULA ON SUNDAY THEN ENTERING THE GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHERE IT BECOMES MOSTLY STATIONARY. EVEN IF THE 12Z RUNS PLAY OUT
AND THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GOMEX THE LOCAL AREA COULD STILL SEE
ISSUES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING AS MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW BLANKETS THE FL PENINSULA. CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK...STRENGTH...AND TIMING SHOULD INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND AT WHICH POINT ACTUAL IMPACTS FOR THE LOCAL AREA CAN
BE ESTABLISHED. UNTIL THEN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR T.S ERIKA AND ITS PROGRESSION.

WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST IN
THIS PERIOD CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. ELEVATED RAIN
CHANCES BEGIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN COASTAL
AREAS AND ACROSS NE FL. BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHER WINDS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW WHICH
WHERE THE ACTUAL CENTER WILL BE IS UP IN THE AIR AT THIS TIME.
CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES...ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET AT THE DUVAL COUNTY
TERMINALS...GNV...AND SSI AS SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY
BRING WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY AT SGJ...ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY AVOID THAT TERMINAL THROUGH AT
LEAST 00Z. KEPT VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MOST TERMINALS AFTER 00Z.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MOSTLY EAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS
WILL DECREASE AT VQQ AND GNV OVERNIGHT...AND WILL PERSIST AT
SSI...CRG...AND SGJ.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
3-4 FT RANGE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS OUR GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATE
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL APPROACH OF ERIKA TOWARDS THE FL
PENINSULA...ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT BY LATE SUNDAY. TIMING OF THESE INCREASES
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND ARE PREDICATED ON THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY
OF ERIKA...BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN LONG RANGE PREDICTIONS OF ERIKA AND POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH WINDS/SEAS FOR ANY DETAILS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH WORDING FOR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND ANY CHANGES WILL DEPEND ON
TRACK UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS: ELEVATED RISK ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.

SURF ZONE/TIDES: FULL MOON THIS SATURDAY...COMBINED WITH DEEPENING
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ENHANCE ALREADY ELEVATED TIDAL LEVELS ALONG
THE COAST...BUT COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ERIKA PRODUCED A PROLIFIC RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT EXPECTED TO
COLLAPSE NEXT WEEK OVER OUR REGION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT
ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS WILL SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY NEAR OR OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...POSSIBLY BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WE HIGHLIGHTED
THIS THREAT THIS MORNING IN A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK PRODUCT...WITH
THE THREAT FOR MAJOR FLOODING OCCURRING INITIALLY ON FAST RISING
TRIBUTARIES SUCH AS BLACK CREEK AND THE UPPER SANTA FE
RIVER...WHICH ALREADY HAVE ENHANCED FLOWS LEADING INTO THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  89  73  89 /  20  60  30  60
SSI  76  87  76  85 /  50  60  40  60
JAX  72  89  74  87 /  40  60  30  60
SGJ  75  87  77  86 /  40  60  30  60
GNV  71  89  73  89 /  20  60  20  60
OCF  72  89  73  89 /  30  70  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

GUILLET/NELSON/WALSH/KENNEDY




000
FXUS62 KJAX 281616
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1216 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM COASTAL GEORGIA SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH
PRESSURE (1024 MILLIBARS) WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS IT
MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. ALOFT...THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES HAS CUTOFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS
SPINNING NEAR MOBILE BAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS CREATING STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY ABOVE 400 MILLIBARS (25000 FEET). THE
MORNING SOUNDING AT JACKSONVILLE DISPLAYED WEAK FLOW BELOW 25000
FT...WITH AN UNSTABLE SOUNDING FEATURING A VERY MOIST LOWER
ATMOSPHERE UP THROUGH 700 MILLIBARS (10000 FT).

HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A DEVELOPING
NORTHEAST WIND SURGE OVER THE COASTAL GEORGIA WATERS WILL ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST GA...WITH CONVECTION SPREADING SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PUSH ACTIVITY
INLAND TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY ALOFT...WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER ACTIVITY DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY AT INLAND
LOCATIONS. NEAR CLIMO LATE AUGUST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S AT THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

ERIKA PRODUCED A PROLIFIC RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT EXPECTED TO
COLLAPSE NEXT WEEK OVER OUR REGION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT
ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS WILL SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY...POSSIBLY
BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO OUR REGION FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS THREAT THIS MORNING IN
A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK PRODUCT...WITH THE THREAT FOR MAJOR FLOODING
ON FAST RISING TRIBUTARIES SUCH AS BLACK CREEK AND THE UPPER SANTA
FE RIVER...WHICH ALREADY HAVE ENHANCED FLOWS LEADING INTO THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS AT SSI AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR OR OVER THE TERMINAL.
WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS AT THE FLORIDA TERMINALS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
PERSISTING TO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AT GNV. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AT SSI OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AND NEAR 10 KNOTS ELSEWHERE AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH SEAS INTO THE 3-5 FT RANGE BY SAT...WITH FURTHER
INCREASES ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY TO CAUTION CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT
WEEK...STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN LONG RANGE PREDICTIONS OF
ERIKA AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS/SEAS FOR ANY DETAILS AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH WORDING FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND
ANY CHANGES WILL DEPEND ON TRACK UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS: EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES JUST ENOUGH TODAY AND
SATURDAY TO WARRANT A MARGINAL MODERATE RISK OF RIPS WITH SWELLS
OF 2 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET AT TIMES.

SURF ZONE/TIDES: COMING UP ON FULL MOON SAT 8/29 AND EXPECT THE
EASTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE ALREADY ELEVATED TIDAL LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BUT NOT LIKELY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  72  87  72 /  70  10  60  40
SSI  88  77  85  75 /  50  40  60  40
JAX  89  74  87  73 /  40  30  60  30
SGJ  88  75  86  75 /  50  40  60  30
GNV  91  72  88  71 /  60  20  60  20
OCF  91  73  89  72 /  60  30  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/GUILLET/KENNEDY/COMBS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 281616
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1216 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM COASTAL GEORGIA SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH
PRESSURE (1024 MILLIBARS) WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS IT
MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. ALOFT...THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES HAS CUTOFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS
SPINNING NEAR MOBILE BAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS CREATING STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY ABOVE 400 MILLIBARS (25000 FEET). THE
MORNING SOUNDING AT JACKSONVILLE DISPLAYED WEAK FLOW BELOW 25000
FT...WITH AN UNSTABLE SOUNDING FEATURING A VERY MOIST LOWER
ATMOSPHERE UP THROUGH 700 MILLIBARS (10000 FT).

HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A DEVELOPING
NORTHEAST WIND SURGE OVER THE COASTAL GEORGIA WATERS WILL ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST GA...WITH CONVECTION SPREADING SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PUSH ACTIVITY
INLAND TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY ALOFT...WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER ACTIVITY DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY AT INLAND
LOCATIONS. NEAR CLIMO LATE AUGUST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S AT THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

ERIKA PRODUCED A PROLIFIC RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT EXPECTED TO
COLLAPSE NEXT WEEK OVER OUR REGION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT
ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS WILL SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY...POSSIBLY
BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO OUR REGION FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS THREAT THIS MORNING IN
A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK PRODUCT...WITH THE THREAT FOR MAJOR FLOODING
ON FAST RISING TRIBUTARIES SUCH AS BLACK CREEK AND THE UPPER SANTA
FE RIVER...WHICH ALREADY HAVE ENHANCED FLOWS LEADING INTO THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS AT SSI AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR OR OVER THE TERMINAL.
WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS AT THE FLORIDA TERMINALS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
PERSISTING TO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AT GNV. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AT SSI OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AND NEAR 10 KNOTS ELSEWHERE AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH SEAS INTO THE 3-5 FT RANGE BY SAT...WITH FURTHER
INCREASES ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY TO CAUTION CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT
WEEK...STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN LONG RANGE PREDICTIONS OF
ERIKA AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS/SEAS FOR ANY DETAILS AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH WORDING FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND
ANY CHANGES WILL DEPEND ON TRACK UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS: EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES JUST ENOUGH TODAY AND
SATURDAY TO WARRANT A MARGINAL MODERATE RISK OF RIPS WITH SWELLS
OF 2 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET AT TIMES.

SURF ZONE/TIDES: COMING UP ON FULL MOON SAT 8/29 AND EXPECT THE
EASTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE ALREADY ELEVATED TIDAL LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BUT NOT LIKELY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  72  87  72 /  70  10  60  40
SSI  88  77  85  75 /  50  40  60  40
JAX  89  74  87  73 /  40  30  60  30
SGJ  88  75  86  75 /  50  40  60  30
GNV  91  72  88  71 /  60  20  60  20
OCF  91  73  89  72 /  60  30  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/GUILLET/KENNEDY/COMBS





000
FXUS62 KJAX 281616
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1216 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM COASTAL GEORGIA SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH
PRESSURE (1024 MILLIBARS) WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS IT
MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. ALOFT...THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES HAS CUTOFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS
SPINNING NEAR MOBILE BAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS CREATING STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY ABOVE 400 MILLIBARS (25000 FEET). THE
MORNING SOUNDING AT JACKSONVILLE DISPLAYED WEAK FLOW BELOW 25000
FT...WITH AN UNSTABLE SOUNDING FEATURING A VERY MOIST LOWER
ATMOSPHERE UP THROUGH 700 MILLIBARS (10000 FT).

HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A DEVELOPING
NORTHEAST WIND SURGE OVER THE COASTAL GEORGIA WATERS WILL ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST GA...WITH CONVECTION SPREADING SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PUSH ACTIVITY
INLAND TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY ALOFT...WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER ACTIVITY DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY AT INLAND
LOCATIONS. NEAR CLIMO LATE AUGUST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S AT THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

ERIKA PRODUCED A PROLIFIC RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT EXPECTED TO
COLLAPSE NEXT WEEK OVER OUR REGION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT
ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS WILL SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY...POSSIBLY
BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO OUR REGION FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS THREAT THIS MORNING IN
A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK PRODUCT...WITH THE THREAT FOR MAJOR FLOODING
ON FAST RISING TRIBUTARIES SUCH AS BLACK CREEK AND THE UPPER SANTA
FE RIVER...WHICH ALREADY HAVE ENHANCED FLOWS LEADING INTO THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS AT SSI AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR OR OVER THE TERMINAL.
WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS AT THE FLORIDA TERMINALS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
PERSISTING TO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AT GNV. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AT SSI OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AND NEAR 10 KNOTS ELSEWHERE AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH SEAS INTO THE 3-5 FT RANGE BY SAT...WITH FURTHER
INCREASES ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY TO CAUTION CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT
WEEK...STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN LONG RANGE PREDICTIONS OF
ERIKA AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS/SEAS FOR ANY DETAILS AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH WORDING FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND
ANY CHANGES WILL DEPEND ON TRACK UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS: EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES JUST ENOUGH TODAY AND
SATURDAY TO WARRANT A MARGINAL MODERATE RISK OF RIPS WITH SWELLS
OF 2 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET AT TIMES.

SURF ZONE/TIDES: COMING UP ON FULL MOON SAT 8/29 AND EXPECT THE
EASTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE ALREADY ELEVATED TIDAL LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BUT NOT LIKELY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  72  87  72 /  70  10  60  40
SSI  88  77  85  75 /  50  40  60  40
JAX  89  74  87  73 /  40  30  60  30
SGJ  88  75  86  75 /  50  40  60  30
GNV  91  72  88  71 /  60  20  60  20
OCF  91  73  89  72 /  60  30  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/GUILLET/KENNEDY/COMBS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 281616
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1216 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM COASTAL GEORGIA SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH
PRESSURE (1024 MILLIBARS) WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS IT
MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. ALOFT...THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES HAS CUTOFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS
SPINNING NEAR MOBILE BAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS CREATING STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY ABOVE 400 MILLIBARS (25000 FEET). THE
MORNING SOUNDING AT JACKSONVILLE DISPLAYED WEAK FLOW BELOW 25000
FT...WITH AN UNSTABLE SOUNDING FEATURING A VERY MOIST LOWER
ATMOSPHERE UP THROUGH 700 MILLIBARS (10000 FT).

HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A DEVELOPING
NORTHEAST WIND SURGE OVER THE COASTAL GEORGIA WATERS WILL ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST GA...WITH CONVECTION SPREADING SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PUSH ACTIVITY
INLAND TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY ALOFT...WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER ACTIVITY DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY AT INLAND
LOCATIONS. NEAR CLIMO LATE AUGUST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S AT THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

ERIKA PRODUCED A PROLIFIC RAINFALL EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT EXPECTED TO
COLLAPSE NEXT WEEK OVER OUR REGION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT
ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS WILL SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY...POSSIBLY
BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO OUR REGION FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS THREAT THIS MORNING IN
A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK PRODUCT...WITH THE THREAT FOR MAJOR FLOODING
ON FAST RISING TRIBUTARIES SUCH AS BLACK CREEK AND THE UPPER SANTA
FE RIVER...WHICH ALREADY HAVE ENHANCED FLOWS LEADING INTO THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS AT SSI AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR OR OVER THE TERMINAL.
WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS AT THE FLORIDA TERMINALS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
PERSISTING TO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AT GNV. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AT SSI OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AND NEAR 10 KNOTS ELSEWHERE AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH SEAS INTO THE 3-5 FT RANGE BY SAT...WITH FURTHER
INCREASES ON SUNDAY POSSIBLY TO CAUTION CONDITIONS. EARLY NEXT
WEEK...STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN LONG RANGE PREDICTIONS OF
ERIKA AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS/SEAS FOR ANY DETAILS AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH WORDING FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND
ANY CHANGES WILL DEPEND ON TRACK UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS: EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES JUST ENOUGH TODAY AND
SATURDAY TO WARRANT A MARGINAL MODERATE RISK OF RIPS WITH SWELLS
OF 2 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET AT TIMES.

SURF ZONE/TIDES: COMING UP ON FULL MOON SAT 8/29 AND EXPECT THE
EASTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE ALREADY ELEVATED TIDAL LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BUT NOT LIKELY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  72  87  72 /  70  10  60  40
SSI  88  77  85  75 /  50  40  60  40
JAX  89  74  87  73 /  40  30  60  30
SGJ  88  75  86  75 /  50  40  60  30
GNV  91  72  88  71 /  60  20  60  20
OCF  91  73  89  72 /  60  30  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/GUILLET/KENNEDY/COMBS





000
FXUS62 KJAX 280735
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
333 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...SO FAR MOISTURE SURGING BACK TO THE NORTH HAS
TRIGGERED MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS AND
SOME MAY BRUSH THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
IN SOME BANDS THAT MOVE ONSHORE THERE. FURTHER INLAND...A FEW
ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE FAIR SKIES WITH VERY LITTLE FOG
FORMATION EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

TODAY...ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS CLOSE
TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA WILL BEGIN TO SURGE
BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS NE FL/COASTAL SE GA THIS MORNING AND INLD
SE GA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
ALOFT...THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST WHICH WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONSHORE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
FIRST...THEN DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER EXPECT
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND NEAR 90 DEGREES FURTHER INLAND. THE EVENING SOUNDINGS
SHOWED SOME DECENT COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS WITH 500 MB TEMPS IN
THE -8C TO -10C RANGE...WHICH IS RATHER COOL FOR LATE AUGUST SO
EXPECT HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTAIN EMBEDDED
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT INLAND WILL MAKE
THE PRIMARY THREAT HEAVY RAINFALL IF ANY TRAINING RAIN BANDS CAN
SET UP ALONG THE COAST...WHILE FURTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS EXPECT GREATER CHANCES FOR STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN
SOME SMALL HAIL DUE TO THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS...ALTHOUGH JUST A
FEW STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE
CONVECTION DECREASE AND END BY MIDNIGHT WHILE THE E/SE STEERING
FLOW OFF THE ATLC WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
ATLC COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL MOVE ONSHORE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/... LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL COINCIDE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH THE LOWER READINGS AT THE
COAST AND THE HIGHER READINGS WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE SETTLING WITH A FORECAST THAT SOMEWHAT REFLECTS THE CURRENT
TRACK FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER (JUST OFF OUR ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK)...THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES
TO BE ONE OF EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE AND CHANGES CAN BE
EXPECTED...PROBABLY SOONER RATHER THAN LATER...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
LATEST WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL SUITE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WIND CONDITIONS...AND TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF ERIKA...IF IT
SURVIVES HISPANIOLA. AS OF THE 0Z MODEL RUNS TONIGHT...THERE REMAINS
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHAT THIS
SYSTEM HAS UP ITS SLEEVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST GFS AND NEARLY
ALL OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE NOW TRENDED WESTWARD...TAKING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE NAM AND EUROPEAN ALSO SHOW THIS. GIVEN THE
LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...THIS SHIFT SEEMS RATHER REASONABLE.

BASED ON THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...IT IS STILL A LITTLE TOO
SOON TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME...WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ERIKA...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY A WEAK AND DISORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM...STILL HAS TO
CONTEND WITH PERSISTENT WIND SHEAR...DRY AIR...AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. EXACTLY
HOW...IF AT ALL...THIS SYSTEM EMERGES ON THE OTHER SIDE OF ALL OF
THIS ADVERSITY...SHOULD ALLOW US TO ATTAIN A MUCH BETTER ASSESSMENT
OF HOW THE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR AREA...THUS ALLOWING US TO PROVIDE
A MORE CONFIDENT FORECAST.

EVEN WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING WEST OF OUR AREA...A PLUME OF RICH
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS AND PUSHING
TO THE N/NW AND MAY IMPACT SSI AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE WILL WAIT FOR ONSHORE PUSH OF CONVECTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS TO IMPACT TAF SITES FROM THE COAST AND MOVING INLAND
TO KVQQ AND KGNV BY THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NOW
HAVE MAINLY INCLUDED VCSH UNTIL AROUND 15Z...THEN ENOUGH HEATING
SHOULD OCCUR AND HAVE CHANGED IT TO VCTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY TIL AROUND 00Z...THEN BACK TO VCSH. JUST NOT ORGANIZED
ENOUGH RAINFALL TO WARRANT TEMPO GROUPS WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE
40-60% RANGE. MAINLY VFR CIGS TODAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT MAY IMPACT SOME OF THE
TERMINALS. EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 15-18 KTS ALONG THE COASTAL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS INTO
THE 3-5 FT RANGE BY SAT...WITH FURTHER INCREASES ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY TO SCEC CONDS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN LONG RANGE PREDICTIONS OF ERIKA AND POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH WINDS/SEAS FOR ANY DETAILS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH WORDING FOR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BASED ON CURRENT WIND PROBS AT
THIS TIME AND ANY CHANGES WILL DEPEND ON TPC TRACK UPDATES IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS: EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES JUST ENOUGH TODAY AND
SATURDAY TO WARRANT A MARGINAL MODERATE RISK OF RIPS WITH SWELLS
OF 2 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET AT TIMES.

SURF ZONE/TIDES: COMING UP ON FULL MOON SAT 8/29 AND EXPECT THE
EASTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE ALREADY ELEVATED TIDAL LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BUT NOT LIKELY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  72  87  72 /  40  30  60  40
SSI  85  77  85  75 /  50  40  50  40
JAX  88  74  87  73 /  50  30  60  40
SGJ  87  75  86  75 /  50  40  50  30
GNV  90  72  88  71 /  60  40  60  30
OCF  90  73  89  72 /  70  40  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/SHULER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 280735
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
333 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...SO FAR MOISTURE SURGING BACK TO THE NORTH HAS
TRIGGERED MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS AND
SOME MAY BRUSH THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
IN SOME BANDS THAT MOVE ONSHORE THERE. FURTHER INLAND...A FEW
ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE FAIR SKIES WITH VERY LITTLE FOG
FORMATION EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

TODAY...ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS CLOSE
TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA WILL BEGIN TO SURGE
BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS NE FL/COASTAL SE GA THIS MORNING AND INLD
SE GA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
ALOFT...THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST WHICH WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONSHORE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
FIRST...THEN DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER EXPECT
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND NEAR 90 DEGREES FURTHER INLAND. THE EVENING SOUNDINGS
SHOWED SOME DECENT COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS WITH 500 MB TEMPS IN
THE -8C TO -10C RANGE...WHICH IS RATHER COOL FOR LATE AUGUST SO
EXPECT HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTAIN EMBEDDED
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT INLAND WILL MAKE
THE PRIMARY THREAT HEAVY RAINFALL IF ANY TRAINING RAIN BANDS CAN
SET UP ALONG THE COAST...WHILE FURTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS EXPECT GREATER CHANCES FOR STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN
SOME SMALL HAIL DUE TO THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS...ALTHOUGH JUST A
FEW STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE
CONVECTION DECREASE AND END BY MIDNIGHT WHILE THE E/SE STEERING
FLOW OFF THE ATLC WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
ATLC COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL MOVE ONSHORE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/... LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL COINCIDE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH THE LOWER READINGS AT THE
COAST AND THE HIGHER READINGS WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE SETTLING WITH A FORECAST THAT SOMEWHAT REFLECTS THE CURRENT
TRACK FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER (JUST OFF OUR ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK)...THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES
TO BE ONE OF EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE AND CHANGES CAN BE
EXPECTED...PROBABLY SOONER RATHER THAN LATER...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
LATEST WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL SUITE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WIND CONDITIONS...AND TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF ERIKA...IF IT
SURVIVES HISPANIOLA. AS OF THE 0Z MODEL RUNS TONIGHT...THERE REMAINS
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHAT THIS
SYSTEM HAS UP ITS SLEEVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST GFS AND NEARLY
ALL OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE NOW TRENDED WESTWARD...TAKING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE NAM AND EUROPEAN ALSO SHOW THIS. GIVEN THE
LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...THIS SHIFT SEEMS RATHER REASONABLE.

BASED ON THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...IT IS STILL A LITTLE TOO
SOON TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME...WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ERIKA...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY A WEAK AND DISORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM...STILL HAS TO
CONTEND WITH PERSISTENT WIND SHEAR...DRY AIR...AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. EXACTLY
HOW...IF AT ALL...THIS SYSTEM EMERGES ON THE OTHER SIDE OF ALL OF
THIS ADVERSITY...SHOULD ALLOW US TO ATTAIN A MUCH BETTER ASSESSMENT
OF HOW THE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR AREA...THUS ALLOWING US TO PROVIDE
A MORE CONFIDENT FORECAST.

EVEN WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING WEST OF OUR AREA...A PLUME OF RICH
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS AND PUSHING
TO THE N/NW AND MAY IMPACT SSI AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE WILL WAIT FOR ONSHORE PUSH OF CONVECTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS TO IMPACT TAF SITES FROM THE COAST AND MOVING INLAND
TO KVQQ AND KGNV BY THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NOW
HAVE MAINLY INCLUDED VCSH UNTIL AROUND 15Z...THEN ENOUGH HEATING
SHOULD OCCUR AND HAVE CHANGED IT TO VCTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY TIL AROUND 00Z...THEN BACK TO VCSH. JUST NOT ORGANIZED
ENOUGH RAINFALL TO WARRANT TEMPO GROUPS WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE
40-60% RANGE. MAINLY VFR CIGS TODAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT MAY IMPACT SOME OF THE
TERMINALS. EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 15-18 KTS ALONG THE COASTAL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS INTO
THE 3-5 FT RANGE BY SAT...WITH FURTHER INCREASES ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY TO SCEC CONDS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN LONG RANGE PREDICTIONS OF ERIKA AND POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH WINDS/SEAS FOR ANY DETAILS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH WORDING FOR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BASED ON CURRENT WIND PROBS AT
THIS TIME AND ANY CHANGES WILL DEPEND ON TPC TRACK UPDATES IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS: EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES JUST ENOUGH TODAY AND
SATURDAY TO WARRANT A MARGINAL MODERATE RISK OF RIPS WITH SWELLS
OF 2 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET AT TIMES.

SURF ZONE/TIDES: COMING UP ON FULL MOON SAT 8/29 AND EXPECT THE
EASTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE ALREADY ELEVATED TIDAL LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BUT NOT LIKELY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  72  87  72 /  40  30  60  40
SSI  85  77  85  75 /  50  40  50  40
JAX  88  74  87  73 /  50  30  60  40
SGJ  87  75  86  75 /  50  40  50  30
GNV  90  72  88  71 /  60  40  60  30
OCF  90  73  89  72 /  70  40  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/SHULER





000
FXUS62 KJAX 280735
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
333 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...SO FAR MOISTURE SURGING BACK TO THE NORTH HAS
TRIGGERED MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS AND
SOME MAY BRUSH THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
IN SOME BANDS THAT MOVE ONSHORE THERE. FURTHER INLAND...A FEW
ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE FAIR SKIES WITH VERY LITTLE FOG
FORMATION EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

TODAY...ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS CLOSE
TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA WILL BEGIN TO SURGE
BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS NE FL/COASTAL SE GA THIS MORNING AND INLD
SE GA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
ALOFT...THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST WHICH WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONSHORE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
FIRST...THEN DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER EXPECT
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND NEAR 90 DEGREES FURTHER INLAND. THE EVENING SOUNDINGS
SHOWED SOME DECENT COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS WITH 500 MB TEMPS IN
THE -8C TO -10C RANGE...WHICH IS RATHER COOL FOR LATE AUGUST SO
EXPECT HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTAIN EMBEDDED
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT INLAND WILL MAKE
THE PRIMARY THREAT HEAVY RAINFALL IF ANY TRAINING RAIN BANDS CAN
SET UP ALONG THE COAST...WHILE FURTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS EXPECT GREATER CHANCES FOR STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN
SOME SMALL HAIL DUE TO THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS...ALTHOUGH JUST A
FEW STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE
CONVECTION DECREASE AND END BY MIDNIGHT WHILE THE E/SE STEERING
FLOW OFF THE ATLC WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
ATLC COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL MOVE ONSHORE AT TIMES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SUNDAY/... LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL COINCIDE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH THE LOWER READINGS AT THE
COAST AND THE HIGHER READINGS WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE SETTLING WITH A FORECAST THAT SOMEWHAT REFLECTS THE CURRENT
TRACK FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER (JUST OFF OUR ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK)...THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES
TO BE ONE OF EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE AND CHANGES CAN BE
EXPECTED...PROBABLY SOONER RATHER THAN LATER...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
LATEST WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL SUITE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WIND CONDITIONS...AND TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF ERIKA...IF IT
SURVIVES HISPANIOLA. AS OF THE 0Z MODEL RUNS TONIGHT...THERE REMAINS
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHAT THIS
SYSTEM HAS UP ITS SLEEVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST GFS AND NEARLY
ALL OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE NOW TRENDED WESTWARD...TAKING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE NAM AND EUROPEAN ALSO SHOW THIS. GIVEN THE
LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...THIS SHIFT SEEMS RATHER REASONABLE.

BASED ON THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...IT IS STILL A LITTLE TOO
SOON TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME...WE STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ERIKA...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY A WEAK AND DISORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM...STILL HAS TO
CONTEND WITH PERSISTENT WIND SHEAR...DRY AIR...AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. EXACTLY
HOW...IF AT ALL...THIS SYSTEM EMERGES ON THE OTHER SIDE OF ALL OF
THIS ADVERSITY...SHOULD ALLOW US TO ATTAIN A MUCH BETTER ASSESSMENT
OF HOW THE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR AREA...THUS ALLOWING US TO PROVIDE
A MORE CONFIDENT FORECAST.

EVEN WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING WEST OF OUR AREA...A PLUME OF RICH
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA AND BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS AND PUSHING
TO THE N/NW AND MAY IMPACT SSI AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE WILL WAIT FOR ONSHORE PUSH OF CONVECTION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS TO IMPACT TAF SITES FROM THE COAST AND MOVING INLAND
TO KVQQ AND KGNV BY THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NOW
HAVE MAINLY INCLUDED VCSH UNTIL AROUND 15Z...THEN ENOUGH HEATING
SHOULD OCCUR AND HAVE CHANGED IT TO VCTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY TIL AROUND 00Z...THEN BACK TO VCSH. JUST NOT ORGANIZED
ENOUGH RAINFALL TO WARRANT TEMPO GROUPS WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE
40-60% RANGE. MAINLY VFR CIGS TODAY...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT MAY IMPACT SOME OF THE
TERMINALS. EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 15-18 KTS ALONG THE COASTAL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS INTO
THE 3-5 FT RANGE BY SAT...WITH FURTHER INCREASES ON SUNDAY
POSSIBLY TO SCEC CONDS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN LONG RANGE PREDICTIONS OF ERIKA AND POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH WINDS/SEAS FOR ANY DETAILS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH WORDING FOR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BASED ON CURRENT WIND PROBS AT
THIS TIME AND ANY CHANGES WILL DEPEND ON TPC TRACK UPDATES IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS: EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES JUST ENOUGH TODAY AND
SATURDAY TO WARRANT A MARGINAL MODERATE RISK OF RIPS WITH SWELLS
OF 2 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET AT TIMES.

SURF ZONE/TIDES: COMING UP ON FULL MOON SAT 8/29 AND EXPECT THE
EASTERLY FLOW TO ENHANCE ALREADY ELEVATED TIDAL LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BUT NOT LIKELY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  72  87  72 /  40  30  60  40
SSI  85  77  85  75 /  50  40  50  40
JAX  88  74  87  73 /  50  30  60  40
SGJ  87  75  86  75 /  50  40  50  30
GNV  90  72  88  71 /  60  40  60  30
OCF  90  73  89  72 /  70  40  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/SHULER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 280125
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
925 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...SCATTERED STORMS PERSIST NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR THIS
EVE WHERE SEABREEZES AND OUTFLOWS MERGED NEAR A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS N FL/SE GA. THESE STORMS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND THEN FADE OUT DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS THERE FOR THE REST OF THE EVE. WSR 88D INDICATING
DEVELOPING SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE SE GA WATERS DRIFTING WEST.
WILL KEEP POPS GOING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SE FLOW
AND MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST EARLY FRI AM.

&&

.AVIATION...HAVE VCTS AT GNV TIL 03Z AS STORMS JUST WEST OF THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST. HAVE VCSH AT SSI AFT 04Z AS A FEW COASTAL
SHOWERS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THAT TERMINAL. OTHERWISE PREVAIL VFR.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  90  73  90 /  30  60  20  60
SSI  75  85  77  86 /  30  60  40  50
JAX  75  87  74  89 /  30  60  40  60
SGJ  75  85  76  87 /  30  60  40  50
GNV  72  87  73  90 /  30  60  30  60
OCF  72  88  74  90 /  30  60  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS/AW





000
FXUS62 KJAX 280125
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
925 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...SCATTERED STORMS PERSIST NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR THIS
EVE WHERE SEABREEZES AND OUTFLOWS MERGED NEAR A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS N FL/SE GA. THESE STORMS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND THEN FADE OUT DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS THERE FOR THE REST OF THE EVE. WSR 88D INDICATING
DEVELOPING SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE SE GA WATERS DRIFTING WEST.
WILL KEEP POPS GOING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SE FLOW
AND MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST EARLY FRI AM.

&&

.AVIATION...HAVE VCTS AT GNV TIL 03Z AS STORMS JUST WEST OF THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST. HAVE VCSH AT SSI AFT 04Z AS A FEW COASTAL
SHOWERS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THAT TERMINAL. OTHERWISE PREVAIL VFR.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  90  73  90 /  30  60  20  60
SSI  75  85  77  86 /  30  60  40  50
JAX  75  87  74  89 /  30  60  40  60
SGJ  75  85  76  87 /  30  60  40  50
GNV  72  87  73  90 /  30  60  30  60
OCF  72  88  74  90 /  30  60  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS/AW




000
FXUS62 KJAX 271934
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
334 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS IS DELAYING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THUS FAR ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
FLAGLER COUNTY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BECOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THAT STRETCHED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

TONIGHT...STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS UNDER THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST. NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT...KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CUTOFF ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA...WITH DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO PUSH NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE
TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP EAST OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG AN INVERTED
TROUGH. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES EAST. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO 1.8-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ONGOING IN THE MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

WET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS WESTERN EXTENT OF MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FL PENINSULA FROM THE EAST AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE US. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS INCREASE INTO EACH AFTERNOON AS SFC LAYER
HEATS UP WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE AN ISSUE EACH AFTERNOON WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS PRODUCING SOME SLOW MOVING
STORMS. SFC HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL ALLOW CONTINUED EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WHICH COULD AFFECT COASTAL LAND AREAS EACH NIGHT. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EACH
AFTERNOON WITH MILD LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE
STRENGTH...TIMING...AND TRACK OF TS ERIKA. CURRENTLY...THERE IS
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE THE FORECAST FOR THIS STORM EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE MOST RECENT UPDATE ON THE TRACK OF ERIKA
PLACING THE CENTER JUST OFFSHORE OF TITUSVILLE BY TUESDAY MORNING
AS HURRICANE. THE FUTURE TRACK OF THIS STORM IS DEPENDENT ON ITS
INTENSITY AND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA INTO THIS WEEKEND. LONG
TERM MODEL TRENDS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS INDICATING A STRONGER
STORM CURVING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST PROGRESSING UP THE EAST COAST
OF FL AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAK STORM CURVING LESS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND TRACKING UP THE FL PENINSULA. THE CURRENT LOCAL
FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES...PRIMARILY IN COASTAL AREAS... MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND WINDY CONDITIONS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. COASTAL AND INLAND
FLOODING ALONG WITH BEACH EROSION AND HIGH SURF COULD BE ISSUES IF
THE STRONGER STORM SOLUTION MATERIALIZES AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE RECEIVED. WPC GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING 7 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS
BETWEEN 5 TO 7 INCHES IN COASTAL NE FL WITH HIGHEST TOTALS JUST
OFFSHORE. AGAIN...THERE IS LITTLE CERTAINTY IN THIS LONG TERM
FORECAST AND LOCAL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
STORMS PROGRESSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA FOR 20-00Z KGNV/KVQQ WHERE MAY BE BETTER
COVERAGE THAN FOR TAF SITES FURTHER EAST WHERE JUST KEPT VCTS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE TSRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...BUT
LEFT OUT MENTION OF SHOWERS ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING AT THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO TROPICAL STORM ERIKA SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM TRACKS TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA...AND THEN POSSIBLY NORTHWARD UP THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...REFER TO THE HURRICANE CENTER AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  90  73  90 /  40  60  20  60
SSI  75  85  77  86 /  40  60  40  50
JAX  75  87  74  89 /  50  60  40  60
SGJ  75  85  76  87 /  40  60  40  50
GNV  72  87  73  90 /  30  60  30  60
OCF  72  88  74  90 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

GUILLET/KENNEDY/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 271934
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
334 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS IS DELAYING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THUS FAR ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
FLAGLER COUNTY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BECOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THAT STRETCHED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

TONIGHT...STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS UNDER THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST. NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT...KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CUTOFF ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA...WITH DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO PUSH NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE
TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP EAST OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG AN INVERTED
TROUGH. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES EAST. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO 1.8-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ONGOING IN THE MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

WET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS WESTERN EXTENT OF MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FL PENINSULA FROM THE EAST AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE US. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS INCREASE INTO EACH AFTERNOON AS SFC LAYER
HEATS UP WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE AN ISSUE EACH AFTERNOON WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS PRODUCING SOME SLOW MOVING
STORMS. SFC HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL ALLOW CONTINUED EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WHICH COULD AFFECT COASTAL LAND AREAS EACH NIGHT. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EACH
AFTERNOON WITH MILD LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE
STRENGTH...TIMING...AND TRACK OF TS ERIKA. CURRENTLY...THERE IS
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE THE FORECAST FOR THIS STORM EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE MOST RECENT UPDATE ON THE TRACK OF ERIKA
PLACING THE CENTER JUST OFFSHORE OF TITUSVILLE BY TUESDAY MORNING
AS HURRICANE. THE FUTURE TRACK OF THIS STORM IS DEPENDENT ON ITS
INTENSITY AND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA INTO THIS WEEKEND. LONG
TERM MODEL TRENDS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS INDICATING A STRONGER
STORM CURVING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST PROGRESSING UP THE EAST COAST
OF FL AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAK STORM CURVING LESS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND TRACKING UP THE FL PENINSULA. THE CURRENT LOCAL
FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES...PRIMARILY IN COASTAL AREAS... MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND WINDY CONDITIONS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. COASTAL AND INLAND
FLOODING ALONG WITH BEACH EROSION AND HIGH SURF COULD BE ISSUES IF
THE STRONGER STORM SOLUTION MATERIALIZES AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE RECEIVED. WPC GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING 7 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS
BETWEEN 5 TO 7 INCHES IN COASTAL NE FL WITH HIGHEST TOTALS JUST
OFFSHORE. AGAIN...THERE IS LITTLE CERTAINTY IN THIS LONG TERM
FORECAST AND LOCAL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
STORMS PROGRESSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA FOR 20-00Z KGNV/KVQQ WHERE MAY BE BETTER
COVERAGE THAN FOR TAF SITES FURTHER EAST WHERE JUST KEPT VCTS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE TSRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...BUT
LEFT OUT MENTION OF SHOWERS ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING AT THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO TROPICAL STORM ERIKA SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM TRACKS TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA...AND THEN POSSIBLY NORTHWARD UP THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...REFER TO THE HURRICANE CENTER AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  90  73  90 /  40  60  20  60
SSI  75  85  77  86 /  40  60  40  50
JAX  75  87  74  89 /  50  60  40  60
SGJ  75  85  76  87 /  40  60  40  50
GNV  72  87  73  90 /  30  60  30  60
OCF  72  88  74  90 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

GUILLET/KENNEDY/WALKER





000
FXUS62 KJAX 271934
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
334 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS IS DELAYING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THUS FAR ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
FLAGLER COUNTY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BECOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THAT STRETCHED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

TONIGHT...STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS UNDER THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST. NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT...KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CUTOFF ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA...WITH DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO PUSH NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE
TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP EAST OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG AN INVERTED
TROUGH. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES EAST. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO 1.8-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ONGOING IN THE MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

WET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS WESTERN EXTENT OF MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FL PENINSULA FROM THE EAST AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE US. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS INCREASE INTO EACH AFTERNOON AS SFC LAYER
HEATS UP WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE AN ISSUE EACH AFTERNOON WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS PRODUCING SOME SLOW MOVING
STORMS. SFC HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL ALLOW CONTINUED EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WHICH COULD AFFECT COASTAL LAND AREAS EACH NIGHT. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EACH
AFTERNOON WITH MILD LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE
STRENGTH...TIMING...AND TRACK OF TS ERIKA. CURRENTLY...THERE IS
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE THE FORECAST FOR THIS STORM EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE MOST RECENT UPDATE ON THE TRACK OF ERIKA
PLACING THE CENTER JUST OFFSHORE OF TITUSVILLE BY TUESDAY MORNING
AS HURRICANE. THE FUTURE TRACK OF THIS STORM IS DEPENDENT ON ITS
INTENSITY AND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA INTO THIS WEEKEND. LONG
TERM MODEL TRENDS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS INDICATING A STRONGER
STORM CURVING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST PROGRESSING UP THE EAST COAST
OF FL AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAK STORM CURVING LESS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND TRACKING UP THE FL PENINSULA. THE CURRENT LOCAL
FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES...PRIMARILY IN COASTAL AREAS... MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND WINDY CONDITIONS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. COASTAL AND INLAND
FLOODING ALONG WITH BEACH EROSION AND HIGH SURF COULD BE ISSUES IF
THE STRONGER STORM SOLUTION MATERIALIZES AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE RECEIVED. WPC GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING 7 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS
BETWEEN 5 TO 7 INCHES IN COASTAL NE FL WITH HIGHEST TOTALS JUST
OFFSHORE. AGAIN...THERE IS LITTLE CERTAINTY IN THIS LONG TERM
FORECAST AND LOCAL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
STORMS PROGRESSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA FOR 20-00Z KGNV/KVQQ WHERE MAY BE BETTER
COVERAGE THAN FOR TAF SITES FURTHER EAST WHERE JUST KEPT VCTS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE TSRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...BUT
LEFT OUT MENTION OF SHOWERS ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING AT THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO TROPICAL STORM ERIKA SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM TRACKS TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA...AND THEN POSSIBLY NORTHWARD UP THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...REFER TO THE HURRICANE CENTER AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  90  73  90 /  40  60  20  60
SSI  75  85  77  86 /  40  60  40  50
JAX  75  87  74  89 /  50  60  40  60
SGJ  75  85  76  87 /  40  60  40  50
GNV  72  87  73  90 /  30  60  30  60
OCF  72  88  74  90 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

GUILLET/KENNEDY/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 271934
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
334 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS IS DELAYING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THUS FAR ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
FLAGLER COUNTY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BECOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THAT STRETCHED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

TONIGHT...STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS UNDER THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST. NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT...KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CUTOFF ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA...WITH DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO PUSH NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE
TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP EAST OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG AN INVERTED
TROUGH. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES EAST. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO 1.8-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ONGOING IN THE MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

WET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS WESTERN EXTENT OF MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FL PENINSULA FROM THE EAST AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE US. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS INCREASE INTO EACH AFTERNOON AS SFC LAYER
HEATS UP WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE AN ISSUE EACH AFTERNOON WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS PRODUCING SOME SLOW MOVING
STORMS. SFC HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL ALLOW CONTINUED EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WHICH COULD AFFECT COASTAL LAND AREAS EACH NIGHT. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EACH
AFTERNOON WITH MILD LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE
STRENGTH...TIMING...AND TRACK OF TS ERIKA. CURRENTLY...THERE IS
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE THE FORECAST FOR THIS STORM EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE MOST RECENT UPDATE ON THE TRACK OF ERIKA
PLACING THE CENTER JUST OFFSHORE OF TITUSVILLE BY TUESDAY MORNING
AS HURRICANE. THE FUTURE TRACK OF THIS STORM IS DEPENDENT ON ITS
INTENSITY AND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA INTO THIS WEEKEND. LONG
TERM MODEL TRENDS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS INDICATING A STRONGER
STORM CURVING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST PROGRESSING UP THE EAST COAST
OF FL AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAK STORM CURVING LESS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND TRACKING UP THE FL PENINSULA. THE CURRENT LOCAL
FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES...PRIMARILY IN COASTAL AREAS... MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND WINDY CONDITIONS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. COASTAL AND INLAND
FLOODING ALONG WITH BEACH EROSION AND HIGH SURF COULD BE ISSUES IF
THE STRONGER STORM SOLUTION MATERIALIZES AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE RECEIVED. WPC GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING 7 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS
BETWEEN 5 TO 7 INCHES IN COASTAL NE FL WITH HIGHEST TOTALS JUST
OFFSHORE. AGAIN...THERE IS LITTLE CERTAINTY IN THIS LONG TERM
FORECAST AND LOCAL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
STORMS PROGRESSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA FOR 20-00Z KGNV/KVQQ WHERE MAY BE BETTER
COVERAGE THAN FOR TAF SITES FURTHER EAST WHERE JUST KEPT VCTS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE TSRA. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...BUT
LEFT OUT MENTION OF SHOWERS ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING AT THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO TROPICAL STORM ERIKA SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM TRACKS TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA...AND THEN POSSIBLY NORTHWARD UP THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...REFER TO THE HURRICANE CENTER AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  90  73  90 /  40  60  20  60
SSI  75  85  77  86 /  40  60  40  50
JAX  75  87  74  89 /  50  60  40  60
SGJ  75  85  76  87 /  40  60  40  50
GNV  72  87  73  90 /  30  60  30  60
OCF  72  88  74  90 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

GUILLET/KENNEDY/WALKER





000
FXUS62 KJAX 271339
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
939 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVED THROUGH MARION COUNTY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OCALA. 12Z SOUNDING THIS
MORNING SHOWED DRIER AIR ALOFT...ABOVE 700MB. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE
BORDER OF NASSAU AND DUVAL COUNTY...AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND FROM THE COST TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADING INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE
TO MOVE BACK INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND TO THE WEST OF I-75 THIS
AFTERNOON.

MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...WITH THE LOWEST POPS CAPPED TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS
JEFF DAVIS AND COFFEE COUNTIES IN GEORGIA. STRONG STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS. COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
PUSHING INLAND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT/BKN CEILINGS AROUND 1.5KFT HAVE MOVED INTO KGNV DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL KEEP FOG CHANCES AT AT MINIMUM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN STORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E TO
SE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS T.S. ERIKA IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH SE FL.

RIP CURRENTS:
LOW RISK TODAY BECOMING MODERATE RISK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  73  91  72 /  40  40  50  30
SSI  85  75  85  76 /  40  50  40  30
JAX  89  75  88  73 /  60  50  50  30
SGJ  86  74  87  75 /  50  40  60  40
GNV  89  72  89  72 /  60  30  70  30
OCF  89  72  89  73 /  60  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/KENNEDY/COMBS





000
FXUS62 KJAX 271339
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
939 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVED THROUGH MARION COUNTY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OCALA. 12Z SOUNDING THIS
MORNING SHOWED DRIER AIR ALOFT...ABOVE 700MB. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE
BORDER OF NASSAU AND DUVAL COUNTY...AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND FROM THE COST TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADING INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE
TO MOVE BACK INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND TO THE WEST OF I-75 THIS
AFTERNOON.

MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...WITH THE LOWEST POPS CAPPED TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS
JEFF DAVIS AND COFFEE COUNTIES IN GEORGIA. STRONG STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS. COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
PUSHING INLAND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT/BKN CEILINGS AROUND 1.5KFT HAVE MOVED INTO KGNV DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL KEEP FOG CHANCES AT AT MINIMUM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN STORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E TO
SE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS T.S. ERIKA IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH SE FL.

RIP CURRENTS:
LOW RISK TODAY BECOMING MODERATE RISK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  73  91  72 /  40  40  50  30
SSI  85  75  85  76 /  40  50  40  30
JAX  89  75  88  73 /  60  50  50  30
SGJ  86  74  87  75 /  50  40  60  40
GNV  89  72  89  72 /  60  30  70  30
OCF  89  72  89  73 /  60  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/KENNEDY/COMBS





000
FXUS62 KJAX 271339
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
939 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVED THROUGH MARION COUNTY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OCALA. 12Z SOUNDING THIS
MORNING SHOWED DRIER AIR ALOFT...ABOVE 700MB. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE
BORDER OF NASSAU AND DUVAL COUNTY...AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND FROM THE COST TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADING INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE
TO MOVE BACK INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND TO THE WEST OF I-75 THIS
AFTERNOON.

MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...WITH THE LOWEST POPS CAPPED TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS
JEFF DAVIS AND COFFEE COUNTIES IN GEORGIA. STRONG STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS. COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
PUSHING INLAND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT/BKN CEILINGS AROUND 1.5KFT HAVE MOVED INTO KGNV DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL KEEP FOG CHANCES AT AT MINIMUM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN STORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E TO
SE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS T.S. ERIKA IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH SE FL.

RIP CURRENTS:
LOW RISK TODAY BECOMING MODERATE RISK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  73  91  72 /  40  40  50  30
SSI  85  75  85  76 /  40  50  40  30
JAX  89  75  88  73 /  60  50  50  30
SGJ  86  74  87  75 /  50  40  60  40
GNV  89  72  89  72 /  60  30  70  30
OCF  89  72  89  73 /  60  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/KENNEDY/COMBS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 271339
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
939 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVED THROUGH MARION COUNTY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OCALA. 12Z SOUNDING THIS
MORNING SHOWED DRIER AIR ALOFT...ABOVE 700MB. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE
BORDER OF NASSAU AND DUVAL COUNTY...AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND FROM THE COST TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADING INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE
TO MOVE BACK INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND TO THE WEST OF I-75 THIS
AFTERNOON.

MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...WITH THE LOWEST POPS CAPPED TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS
JEFF DAVIS AND COFFEE COUNTIES IN GEORGIA. STRONG STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS. COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
PUSHING INLAND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT/BKN CEILINGS AROUND 1.5KFT HAVE MOVED INTO KGNV DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL KEEP FOG CHANCES AT AT MINIMUM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN STORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E TO
SE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS T.S. ERIKA IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH SE FL.

RIP CURRENTS:
LOW RISK TODAY BECOMING MODERATE RISK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  73  91  72 /  40  40  50  30
SSI  85  75  85  76 /  40  50  40  30
JAX  89  75  88  73 /  60  50  50  30
SGJ  86  74  87  75 /  50  40  60  40
GNV  89  72  89  72 /  60  30  70  30
OCF  89  72  89  73 /  60  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/KENNEDY/COMBS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 270744
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
343 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER AREA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA BY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW AN
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SPREAD MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO
INTERIOR SE GA REPLACING THE DRY AIR THAT EXISTS THERE NOW. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS AREA WIDE BY
LATE DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST
TO THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.
ON FRIDAY A DEEPENING SE FLOW WILL INCREASE PWATS TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
THIS WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN TODAY AS MOISTURE AND SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASE FURTHER.

.SHORT TERM /FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT/...RELATIVELY WET CONDS
EXPECTED AS MID LEVEL TROF RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PUSH TROPICAL AIRMASS
ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK ACROSS NE FL/SE GA THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS MOISTURE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SLOWER
MOVING STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWER AND
EMBEDDED STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND
MORNING HOURS LEADING INTO THE ACTIVITY. MAX TEMPS NEAR CLIMO VALUES
IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR 90 INLAND.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY/...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE WITH
THE SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF ERIKA WITH A
RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES OF POSSIBLY A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING UP THE
PENINSULA (00Z EURO) TO A STRONGER SYSTEM RECURVING JUST EAST OF THE
PENINSULA (00Z GFS). STILL TOO EARLY FOR ANY DETAILS FOR SPECIFIC
IMPACTS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE TRANSITION DAY AS NE FL/SE GA MAY END UP
IN POSSIBLE SUBSIDENCE ZONE AHEAD OF THE STORM WITH LOWER THAN
EXPECTED POPS...BUT FOR NOW CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
STORM. MON/TUE/WED...EXPECTING WINDY/WET CONDS WITH AT LEAST
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING UP THE PENINSULA AND FROM THE
COAST DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
FASTER WITH HOW QUICKLY THE STORM IMPACTS THE REGION BUT THIS COULD
CHANGE AND RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL AS BOTH GFS/EURO
HAVE ONE FOOT RAINFALL STORM TOTALS OFF THE NE FL/SE GA COAST
OVER THE ATLC WATERS...SO WITH EXPECTED TRACK EXPECT HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTAL ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU
MOVE INLAND. BEACHES EXPECTED TO HAVE GREATEST IMPACT WITH HIGH
SURF...POTENTIAL BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. WEDNESDAY COULD
ACTUALLY HAVE IMPROVING WEATHER CONDS IF THE STORM PUSHES TOWARDS
THE CAROLINAS AS PER THE GFS AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. MAX TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY...BUT PROBABLY BELOW NORMAL
WILL HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST MON/TUE
WITH UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 MUCH FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL KEEP FOG CHANCES AT AT MINIMUM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN STORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
E TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND CONTINUE THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS T.S.
ERIKA IS FORECAST TO APPROACH SE FL.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY BECOMING MODERATE RISK FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  73  91  72 /  40  40  50  30
SSI  85  75  85  76 /  40  50  40  30
JAX  89  75  88  73 /  40  40  50  30
SGJ  86  74  87  75 /  40  40  60  40
GNV  89  72  89  72 /  50  30  70  30
OCF  89  72  89  73 /  60  30  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/HESS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 270744
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
343 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER AREA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA BY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW AN
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SPREAD MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO
INTERIOR SE GA REPLACING THE DRY AIR THAT EXISTS THERE NOW. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS AREA WIDE BY
LATE DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST
TO THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.
ON FRIDAY A DEEPENING SE FLOW WILL INCREASE PWATS TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
THIS WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN TODAY AS MOISTURE AND SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASE FURTHER.

.SHORT TERM /FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT/...RELATIVELY WET CONDS
EXPECTED AS MID LEVEL TROF RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PUSH TROPICAL AIRMASS
ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK ACROSS NE FL/SE GA THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS MOISTURE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SLOWER
MOVING STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWER AND
EMBEDDED STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND
MORNING HOURS LEADING INTO THE ACTIVITY. MAX TEMPS NEAR CLIMO VALUES
IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR 90 INLAND.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY/...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE WITH
THE SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF ERIKA WITH A
RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES OF POSSIBLY A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING UP THE
PENINSULA (00Z EURO) TO A STRONGER SYSTEM RECURVING JUST EAST OF THE
PENINSULA (00Z GFS). STILL TOO EARLY FOR ANY DETAILS FOR SPECIFIC
IMPACTS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE TRANSITION DAY AS NE FL/SE GA MAY END UP
IN POSSIBLE SUBSIDENCE ZONE AHEAD OF THE STORM WITH LOWER THAN
EXPECTED POPS...BUT FOR NOW CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
STORM. MON/TUE/WED...EXPECTING WINDY/WET CONDS WITH AT LEAST
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING UP THE PENINSULA AND FROM THE
COAST DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
FASTER WITH HOW QUICKLY THE STORM IMPACTS THE REGION BUT THIS COULD
CHANGE AND RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL AS BOTH GFS/EURO
HAVE ONE FOOT RAINFALL STORM TOTALS OFF THE NE FL/SE GA COAST
OVER THE ATLC WATERS...SO WITH EXPECTED TRACK EXPECT HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTAL ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU
MOVE INLAND. BEACHES EXPECTED TO HAVE GREATEST IMPACT WITH HIGH
SURF...POTENTIAL BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. WEDNESDAY COULD
ACTUALLY HAVE IMPROVING WEATHER CONDS IF THE STORM PUSHES TOWARDS
THE CAROLINAS AS PER THE GFS AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. MAX TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY...BUT PROBABLY BELOW NORMAL
WILL HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST MON/TUE
WITH UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 MUCH FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL KEEP FOG CHANCES AT AT MINIMUM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN STORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
E TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND CONTINUE THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS T.S.
ERIKA IS FORECAST TO APPROACH SE FL.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY BECOMING MODERATE RISK FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  73  91  72 /  40  40  50  30
SSI  85  75  85  76 /  40  50  40  30
JAX  89  75  88  73 /  40  40  50  30
SGJ  86  74  87  75 /  40  40  60  40
GNV  89  72  89  72 /  50  30  70  30
OCF  89  72  89  73 /  60  30  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/HESS





000
FXUS62 KJAX 270744
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
343 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER AREA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA BY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW AN
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SPREAD MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO
INTERIOR SE GA REPLACING THE DRY AIR THAT EXISTS THERE NOW. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS AREA WIDE BY
LATE DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST
TO THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.
ON FRIDAY A DEEPENING SE FLOW WILL INCREASE PWATS TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
THIS WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN TODAY AS MOISTURE AND SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASE FURTHER.

.SHORT TERM /FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT/...RELATIVELY WET CONDS
EXPECTED AS MID LEVEL TROF RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PUSH TROPICAL AIRMASS
ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK ACROSS NE FL/SE GA THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS MOISTURE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SLOWER
MOVING STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWER AND
EMBEDDED STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND
MORNING HOURS LEADING INTO THE ACTIVITY. MAX TEMPS NEAR CLIMO VALUES
IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR 90 INLAND.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY/...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE WITH
THE SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF ERIKA WITH A
RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES OF POSSIBLY A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING UP THE
PENINSULA (00Z EURO) TO A STRONGER SYSTEM RECURVING JUST EAST OF THE
PENINSULA (00Z GFS). STILL TOO EARLY FOR ANY DETAILS FOR SPECIFIC
IMPACTS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE TRANSITION DAY AS NE FL/SE GA MAY END UP
IN POSSIBLE SUBSIDENCE ZONE AHEAD OF THE STORM WITH LOWER THAN
EXPECTED POPS...BUT FOR NOW CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
STORM. MON/TUE/WED...EXPECTING WINDY/WET CONDS WITH AT LEAST
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING UP THE PENINSULA AND FROM THE
COAST DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
FASTER WITH HOW QUICKLY THE STORM IMPACTS THE REGION BUT THIS COULD
CHANGE AND RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL AS BOTH GFS/EURO
HAVE ONE FOOT RAINFALL STORM TOTALS OFF THE NE FL/SE GA COAST
OVER THE ATLC WATERS...SO WITH EXPECTED TRACK EXPECT HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTAL ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU
MOVE INLAND. BEACHES EXPECTED TO HAVE GREATEST IMPACT WITH HIGH
SURF...POTENTIAL BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. WEDNESDAY COULD
ACTUALLY HAVE IMPROVING WEATHER CONDS IF THE STORM PUSHES TOWARDS
THE CAROLINAS AS PER THE GFS AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. MAX TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY...BUT PROBABLY BELOW NORMAL
WILL HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST MON/TUE
WITH UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 MUCH FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL KEEP FOG CHANCES AT AT MINIMUM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN STORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
E TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND CONTINUE THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS T.S.
ERIKA IS FORECAST TO APPROACH SE FL.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY BECOMING MODERATE RISK FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  73  91  72 /  40  40  50  30
SSI  85  75  85  76 /  40  50  40  30
JAX  89  75  88  73 /  40  40  50  30
SGJ  86  74  87  75 /  40  40  60  40
GNV  89  72  89  72 /  50  30  70  30
OCF  89  72  89  73 /  60  30  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/HESS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 270744
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
343 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER AREA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA BY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW AN
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SPREAD MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO
INTERIOR SE GA REPLACING THE DRY AIR THAT EXISTS THERE NOW. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS AREA WIDE BY
LATE DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST
TO THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.
ON FRIDAY A DEEPENING SE FLOW WILL INCREASE PWATS TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
THIS WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN TODAY AS MOISTURE AND SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASE FURTHER.

.SHORT TERM /FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT/...RELATIVELY WET CONDS
EXPECTED AS MID LEVEL TROF RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PUSH TROPICAL AIRMASS
ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK ACROSS NE FL/SE GA THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS MOISTURE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SLOWER
MOVING STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWER AND
EMBEDDED STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND
MORNING HOURS LEADING INTO THE ACTIVITY. MAX TEMPS NEAR CLIMO VALUES
IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR 90 INLAND.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY/...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE WITH
THE SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF ERIKA WITH A
RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES OF POSSIBLY A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING UP THE
PENINSULA (00Z EURO) TO A STRONGER SYSTEM RECURVING JUST EAST OF THE
PENINSULA (00Z GFS). STILL TOO EARLY FOR ANY DETAILS FOR SPECIFIC
IMPACTS. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE TRANSITION DAY AS NE FL/SE GA MAY END UP
IN POSSIBLE SUBSIDENCE ZONE AHEAD OF THE STORM WITH LOWER THAN
EXPECTED POPS...BUT FOR NOW CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
STORM. MON/TUE/WED...EXPECTING WINDY/WET CONDS WITH AT LEAST
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING UP THE PENINSULA AND FROM THE
COAST DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
FASTER WITH HOW QUICKLY THE STORM IMPACTS THE REGION BUT THIS COULD
CHANGE AND RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL AS BOTH GFS/EURO
HAVE ONE FOOT RAINFALL STORM TOTALS OFF THE NE FL/SE GA COAST
OVER THE ATLC WATERS...SO WITH EXPECTED TRACK EXPECT HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTAL ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS YOU
MOVE INLAND. BEACHES EXPECTED TO HAVE GREATEST IMPACT WITH HIGH
SURF...POTENTIAL BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. WEDNESDAY COULD
ACTUALLY HAVE IMPROVING WEATHER CONDS IF THE STORM PUSHES TOWARDS
THE CAROLINAS AS PER THE GFS AND OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. MAX TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY...BUT PROBABLY BELOW NORMAL
WILL HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST MON/TUE
WITH UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 MUCH FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL KEEP FOG CHANCES AT AT MINIMUM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN STORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
E TO SE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND CONTINUE THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS T.S.
ERIKA IS FORECAST TO APPROACH SE FL.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY BECOMING MODERATE RISK FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  73  91  72 /  40  40  50  30
SSI  85  75  85  76 /  40  50  40  30
JAX  89  75  88  73 /  40  40  50  30
SGJ  86  74  87  75 /  40  40  60  40
GNV  89  72  89  72 /  50  30  70  30
OCF  89  72  89  73 /  60  30  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/HESS





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