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000
FXUS62 KJAX 290208
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1008 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE
TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. ALOFT...RIDGING IS
BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...CREATING DEEPENING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE 800 MILLIBARS (6500 FT). OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST SPARKED CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON THAT
SNEAKED INTO NORTHEAST FL ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR.
SUPPORT ALOFT OVER OUR REGION WAS LACKING FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WAS IN PLACE FOR A
FEW STORMS TO PULSE UP AND BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG. CONVECTION
QUICKLY WANED THIS EVENING...WITH LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS THINNING.
HI-RES MODELS ARE DEPICTING LOW STRATUS AND FOG ADVECTING INTO THE
WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS
DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. WE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE...BUT FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS MAY ADVECT INTO THESE AREAS TOWARDS SUNRISE AS
WELL. A WARM AND UNSEASONABLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AREA-WIDE.

SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON FRI...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. ACTIVE SEA BREEZES OVER FL
WILL DEVELOP WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER INLAND
FL LOCATIONS...WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S. HIGHS AT THE
COAST WILL REACH THE MID 80S BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND
SHORTLY AFTER NOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z. MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT GNV AND VQQ BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT JAX AND CRG AROUND SUNRISE.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP AROUND 16Z AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INLAND...WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS AT
SSI AND SGJ BEFORE 18Z...THEN MOVING PAST CRG AND JAX BEFORE
19Z...REACHING VQQ TOWARDS 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
STALL TO THE NORTH OF THE GEORGIA WATERS ON FRIDAY...AND WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ATLANTIC
RIDGING EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. SEA BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...INCREASING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 10-15 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON IN THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE EACH EVENING IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA. A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH OUR
WATERS BY TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  91  67  91 /  10  10  10  20
SSI  70  85  68  81 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  67  90  69  89 /  20  10  10  10
SGJ  69  86  70  84 /  20  20  10   0
GNV  66  90  68  90 /  10  30  20  20
OCF  66  90  68  90 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/WOLF/SHULER





000
FXUS62 KJAX 290208
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1008 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE
TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. ALOFT...RIDGING IS
BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...CREATING DEEPENING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE 800 MILLIBARS (6500 FT). OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST SPARKED CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON THAT
SNEAKED INTO NORTHEAST FL ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR.
SUPPORT ALOFT OVER OUR REGION WAS LACKING FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WAS IN PLACE FOR A
FEW STORMS TO PULSE UP AND BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG. CONVECTION
QUICKLY WANED THIS EVENING...WITH LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS THINNING.
HI-RES MODELS ARE DEPICTING LOW STRATUS AND FOG ADVECTING INTO THE
WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS
DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. WE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE...BUT FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS MAY ADVECT INTO THESE AREAS TOWARDS SUNRISE AS
WELL. A WARM AND UNSEASONABLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AREA-WIDE.

SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON FRI...WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. ACTIVE SEA BREEZES OVER FL
WILL DEVELOP WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER INLAND
FL LOCATIONS...WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S. HIGHS AT THE
COAST WILL REACH THE MID 80S BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND
SHORTLY AFTER NOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z. MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT GNV AND VQQ BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT JAX AND CRG AROUND SUNRISE.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP AROUND 16Z AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INLAND...WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS AT
SSI AND SGJ BEFORE 18Z...THEN MOVING PAST CRG AND JAX BEFORE
19Z...REACHING VQQ TOWARDS 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
STALL TO THE NORTH OF THE GEORGIA WATERS ON FRIDAY...AND WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ATLANTIC
RIDGING EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. SEA BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...INCREASING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 10-15 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON IN THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE EACH EVENING IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA. A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH OUR
WATERS BY TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  91  67  91 /  10  10  10  20
SSI  70  85  68  81 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  67  90  69  89 /  20  10  10  10
SGJ  69  86  70  84 /  20  20  10   0
GNV  66  90  68  90 /  10  30  20  20
OCF  66  90  68  90 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/WOLF/SHULER





000
FXUS62 KJAX 281758
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
158 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIRRUS BLOW-OFF FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WAS
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...IT IS HAVING NO IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AS THEY HAVE
RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND OTHER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST INTO AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO EXTREME
NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A
FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH THE
MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING. THE GFS HAS ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND
HI-RES GUIDANCE ARE NOT GOING ALONG WITH THIS SCENARIO. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE EVENING
AND DRY OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN WASH OUT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...ALONG THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AS THEY MOVE INLAND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
VERY WARM ONCE AGAIN...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

.SHORT TERM...
FRI NIGHT...ISOLATED INLAND EVENING CONVECTION POSSIBLE DUE TO
SEA BREEZE MERGER ACROSS NE FL WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
RESIDE...OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS
LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE THE
COAST UNDER ESE FLOW.

SAT & SAT NIGHT...PREVAILING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REGIME WITH
DRIER AIR WILL FAVOR AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ELSEWHERE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND WITH MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.
RAIN CHANCES CAPPED AT 20%. SAT NIGHT UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTH WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE WNW. HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SUN & SUN NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL WSW FLOW DEVELOPS WITH AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SHEARED OUT FRONTAL SYSTEM. MEAN LAYER
1000-700 MB RIDGE AXIS POSITIONS ACROSS N-CENTRAL FL WHERE LIGHT
STEERING FLOW WILL ENABLE BOTH SEA BREEZES TO PUSH INLAND AND
MERGE WHILE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS SE GA WILL PREVAIL IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. INDICATED THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES BETWEEN I-95 AND I-75 SUN AFTN/EVENING OF 30-40% WITH THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL ACROSS INLAND SE GA WHERE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL CONVERGE OVER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL WARM
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH NEAR 90 POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
INLAND NE FL AS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL TEMPER HEATING. SUN
NIGHT PRECIP DECREASES WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...
UNSETTLED PATTERN MON-WED UNDER MEAN LAYER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AS SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL KEEP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LATEST GFS40 CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE MEAN
LAYER TROUGH PUSHING DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE WED...WITH
A MORE STABLE AND DRIER NW FLOW THU WITH A DECREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES. TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR CLIMO VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND SE GA TO 60S NE FL AND COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT AND THEN WASH
OUT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS COULD GET NEAR THE
TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND
THEN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS
THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE SOME OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED DISPERSIONS SATURDAY INLAND SE GA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  91  67  91 /  30  10  10  20
SSI  68  85  68  81 /  30  10   0   0
JAX  68  89  69  89 /  20  10  10  10
SGJ  69  86  70  84 /  20  20  10   0
GNV  67  88  68  90 /  10  30  20  20
OCF  66  89  68  90 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

KENNEDY/ENYEDI/WALKER





000
FXUS62 KJAX 281405
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1005 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
A SHORTWAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...ONLY BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS IT ROLLED THROUGH. A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTION WAS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN MS/AL/FL
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE AND MOVE FROM AROUND I-10 NORTHWARD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BUMPED UP POPS IN THIS REGION
SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SPC EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK AREA
SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR TODAY. A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL HOLD THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...LEADING TO A HOT DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. BUMPED
UP TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S DUE TO THE
LATE ARRIVAL OF THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD GET NEAR THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL...EXCEPT AT KSGJ AND KSSI WHERE AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  66  91  66 /  40  40  10  10
SSI  85  69  85  70 /  30  30  10  10
JAX  89  67  88  67 /  30  30  20  10
SGJ  87  68  85  69 /  20  20  20  10
GNV  87  65  89  65 /  20  20  30  10
OCF  88  66  89  65 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

KENNEDY//





000
FXUS62 KJAX 280738
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
338 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY-FRIDAY/...

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CNTL AND S FL TODAY
WHILE A TAIL END OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO BETTER CHANCE OF
STORMS. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SE GA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT WHERE SOME STORMS THERE MAY BE
STRONG AND PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THERE WILL ALSO
BE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NE FL IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVE AS THE WEST/EAST COAST SEABREEZES MERGE AND ADDED
LIFT/CONVERGENCE AS THE  FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT ACROSS NE FL ON
FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SE
GA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN...BUT STILL MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH ALONG REMNANTS OF FRONT FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORMS ACROSS NE FL WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-10. TEMPS TO CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL AND MAY REACH OR EVEN
EXCEED 90 DEGREES ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND SE GA FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING AS WELL. EXPECT THE RIDGING
TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EAST AND A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY. THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. A COOL FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY...THEN STALL OUT NEAR THE GA/FL
LINE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD DUE
TO THE FRONT AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND EVENING STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AND HAVE VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS AFT 18Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR
WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE SW AND INCREASE SOME OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN DOWN
SATURDAY THEN BECOME SE AND INCREASE SOME ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.

RIP CURRENTS:  LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  66  91  66 /  40  40  10  10
SSI  84  69  85  70 /  30  30  10  10
JAX  88  67  88  67 /  30  30  20  10
SGJ  85  68  85  69 /  20  20  20  10
GNV  88  65  89  65 /  20  20  30  10
OCF  88  66  89  65 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/LS





000
FXUS62 KJAX 280105
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
905 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ATLC/GULF COAST SEA BREEZE MERGERS OVER THE U.S. 301 CORRIDOR
PRODUCED MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH JUST A FEW VERY ISOLATED
STORMS THAT HAVE WEAKENED AND ARE DRIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE I-95
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SHOULD WIND
DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY PUSH TOWARDS FAR
INLAND SERN GA AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MIN
TEMPS VERY MILD WITH MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG
THE COAST. ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING SHOULD PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY FOG FORMATION. FOR THURSDAY...A BIT MORE
GOING ON WITH CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING THAT WILL NEED TO BREAK
APART TO MAKE WAY FOR DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 OVER INLAND AREAS AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST WHILE
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AND AID IN AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA WHERE POPS IN THE 30-50% RANGE ARE
EXPECTED WHILE ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF 20-30% POPS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NE FL AS SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND ONCE AGAIN BUT ATLC COAST
SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED CLOSER TO THE US 301/I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR. WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY
ALOFT THERE WILL BE A GREATER CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS WITH SOME
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THIS EVENING AS WEAKENING SHOWERS MOST LIKELY MISS THE
TERMINALS AND WILL KEEP VCSH IN MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 03Z...THEN
JUST MID/HIGH CLOUDS BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG FORMATION AND FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
OUT OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS 15 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU BEFORE BECOMING
ONSHORE SELY AT THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE THU AFTERNOON.
SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK WILL LINGER AS SOME LONG PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELLS CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  88  66  90 /  30  40  70  10
SSI  68  82  68  86 /  30  20  60  20
JAX  66  89  69  88 /  30  20  50  30
SGJ  67  85  69  87 /  20  20  40  30
GNV  65  90  68  88 /  30  20  40  20
OCF  65  90  68  88 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/CORDERO/NELSON





000
FXUS62 KJAX 280105
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
905 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ATLC/GULF COAST SEA BREEZE MERGERS OVER THE U.S. 301 CORRIDOR
PRODUCED MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH JUST A FEW VERY ISOLATED
STORMS THAT HAVE WEAKENED AND ARE DRIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE I-95
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SHOULD WIND
DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY PUSH TOWARDS FAR
INLAND SERN GA AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MIN
TEMPS VERY MILD WITH MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG
THE COAST. ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING SHOULD PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY FOG FORMATION. FOR THURSDAY...A BIT MORE
GOING ON WITH CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING THAT WILL NEED TO BREAK
APART TO MAKE WAY FOR DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 OVER INLAND AREAS AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST WHILE
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AND AID IN AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA WHERE POPS IN THE 30-50% RANGE ARE
EXPECTED WHILE ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF 20-30% POPS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NE FL AS SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND ONCE AGAIN BUT ATLC COAST
SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED CLOSER TO THE US 301/I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR. WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY
ALOFT THERE WILL BE A GREATER CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS WITH SOME
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THIS EVENING AS WEAKENING SHOWERS MOST LIKELY MISS THE
TERMINALS AND WILL KEEP VCSH IN MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 03Z...THEN
JUST MID/HIGH CLOUDS BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG FORMATION AND FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
OUT OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS 15 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU BEFORE BECOMING
ONSHORE SELY AT THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE THU AFTERNOON.
SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK WILL LINGER AS SOME LONG PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELLS CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  88  66  90 /  30  40  70  10
SSI  68  82  68  86 /  30  20  60  20
JAX  66  89  69  88 /  30  20  50  30
SGJ  67  85  69  87 /  20  20  40  30
GNV  65  90  68  88 /  30  20  40  20
OCF  65  90  68  88 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/CORDERO/NELSON





000
FXUS62 KJAX 271849
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
249 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SO FAR NO CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED BUT SEABREEZES FROM BOTH THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC ARE ON THE MOVE. THE THINKING FOR THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE ONE IN WHICH STORMS WILL
FINALLY INITIATE ONCE THE SEABREEZES COLLIDE NEAR THE HIGHWAY 301
CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO 6 PM. FROM THERE THE
STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE
ATLANTIC COAST AS THEY WEAKEN THIS EVENING. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE OR DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY LOW TOPPED GIVEN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE SO NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THOUGH CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT HOWEVER.

WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL SEE ANOTHER MOSTLY FULL DAY OF HEATING
ON THURSDAY (MID TO UPPER 80S) BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN
AREA OF ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MOVES INTO SE GA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
AS IT MOVES INTO SE GA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRESS TOWARDS THE FL/GA BORDER AND
WEAKEN LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH THE
AREA.

.MEDIUM RANGE.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT WEAKENING AND WASHING OUT ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AND
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DRIVING EAST LATE ON SUNDAY.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL THEN WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT.
AFTERWARDS A WEAK RIDGE WILL EXTEND BACK FROM THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SEA BREEZE FRONT CONVECTION DOMINANT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.LONG RANGE.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND WILL THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
EITHER OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY. EITHER
WAY THE FRONT WILL BECOME A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO BRING SOME RAIN TO THE DUVAL
COUNTY TERMINALS. HAVE PLACED IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR RAIN WITH
THE BEST THINKING ON A TWO HOUR WINDOW FOR TIMING. BEST CHANCE FOR
LIGHTNING WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE TERMINALS SO DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED
FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS
DEVELOP AND WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH
SEABREEZE EFFECTS NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. PREVAILING WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 15 KNOTS WITH NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK NE FL BEACHES AND LOW RISK AT SE GA
BEACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  86  66  90 /  10  50  70  10
SSI  69  83  68  86 /  30  50  60  20
JAX  66  88  69  88 /  30  40  50  30
SGJ  68  85  69  87 /  30  30  40  30
GNV  65  89  68  88 /  10  20  40  20
OCF  66  88  68  88 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/SANDRIK/WALKER





000
FXUS62 KJAX 271454
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1054 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
SUNNY SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS CU
FIELD DEVELOPS. RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
SEABREEZES TO MOVE INLAND FROM BOTH COASTS AGAIN TODAY. TEMPS WILL
CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER WITH MAX VALUES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS INLAND ZONES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE BEACHES CLOSER
TO 80 DEGREES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 301 AND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC
COAST THIS EVENING EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATING BY
ROUGHLY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY HOWEVER SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. STORM CHANCES STILL TOO LOW TO SHOW IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. LOOK FOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING IMPACTS AS WE GO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TAF SITES THAT ARE THE BEST CANDIDATES TO BE IMPACTED
BY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE CECIL(VQQ) AND JACKSONVILLE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT(JAX). BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS TODAY
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASING TO NEAR 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
LOCAL SEABREEZE EFFECTS. PREVAILING SEAS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 2
TO 4 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE WATERS
THIS EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK AT NE FL BEACHES AND LOW RISK AT SE GA
BEACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  64  87  67 /  20  20  40  50
SSI  81  67  83  68 /  20  20  30  40
JAX  86  65  87  67 /  30  30  40  30
SGJ  82  66  84  68 /  20  20  30  20
GNV  87  64  87  65 /  30  20  20  20
OCF  87  65  88  65 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/COMBS/WALKER





000
FXUS62 KJAX 270726
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
326 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.NEAR TERM /TODAY-THURSDAY/...

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
SOUTH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE A VEERING OF
LOW LEVEL WINDS AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE COLLISION OF THE WEST AND EAST COAST
SEABREEZES. BEST RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE NEAR THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301
CORRIDOR TODAY AND NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS MORE SW. MODELS ALSO INDICATE COOLING ALOFT ON
THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FAR INLAND SE GA WHERE STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE.
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG
THE COAST. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WARMER READINGS ALONG THE
COAST.

.SHORT TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN STALL NEAR THE GA/FL LINE FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL
SINK SOUTH AND DISSIPATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SATURDAY.

EXPECT ENOUGH CONVERGENCE REMAINING ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOCUS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS PERIOD...WITH THE
WARMEST DAY ON SATURDAY...WHEN READINGS INLAND WILL REACH THE LOWER
90S.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN EXITING HIGH PRESSURE...AND A LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY WILL LARGELY BE DIURNAL. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS
LOW WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE MONDAY...AND SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTH OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SOUTH...BUT WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND NE FL DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
SEABREEZES MOVE IN AND CONVERGE. HAVE VCSH AT JAX...CRG...VQQ...AND
GNV AFT 18Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THUNDER AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF FCST.
OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE SW AND INCREASE SOME OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN
DOWN SATURDAY THEN BECOME SE AND INCREASE SOME ON SUNDAY AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK EXPECTED AT NE FL BEACHES THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  64  87  67 /  20  20  40  50
SSI  81  67  83  68 /  20  20  30  40
JAX  86  65  87  67 /  30  30  40  30
SGJ  82  66  84  68 /  20  20  30  20
GNV  87  64  87  65 /  30  20  20  20
OCF  87  65  88  65 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/LS





000
FXUS62 KJAX 270118
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
918 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ALLOWED BOTH SEA BREEZES TO PUSH INLAND
AND PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER INLAND AREAS...WITH BEST
COVERAGE STILL ALONG I-75 CORRIDOR NEAR LIVE OAK/LAKE CITY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS ON EVENING SOUNDINGS JUST OVER AN INCH
STILL WORKING TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND STILL NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
REPORTED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. JUST A FEW
ISOLD SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER INLD SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE
RIVER VALLEY WITH LAST OF SEA BREEZE MERGER UNTIL AROUND 11PM THEN
FAIR SKIES AND QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S INLAND
AND MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. HI-RES MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ANY FOG BUT SOME 3-5 MILE VSBYS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING OVER INLAND AREAS. STEERING FLOW
TURNS A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS A
BIT CLOSER TO THE US 301 AND I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-40% RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL SURGE INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE SELY SEA BREEZE ALONG
THE COAST WILL KEEP HIGHS THERE IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER VFR NIGHT WITH JUST A FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING
THAT WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. HI-RES MODELS NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT
ANY FOG FORMATION AND WITH NONE LAST NIGHT HAVE LEFT OUT WITH 00Z
TAF PACKAGE. WITH SCATTERED POPS ACROSS INLD TAF SITES AFTER 19Z
WED HAVE ADDED A VCSH AT KJAX/KCRG/KVQQ/KGNV FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SE FLOW AT 10-15 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL SELY SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS STILL GENERALLY 2-4 FT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW-END MODERATE RISK WITH 2-3 FT LONG PERIOD (10-11
SECONDS) SWELLS STILL IMPACTING THE COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  89  66  87 /  20  20  30  50
SSI  67  80  68  82 /  10  10  20  40
JAX  64  87  66  87 /   0  30  30  40
SGJ  66  83  68  85 /   0  20  20  20
GNV  63  89  65  88 /  10  30  30  30
OCF  64  88  66  89 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/COMBS





000
FXUS62 KJAX 270118
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
918 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ALLOWED BOTH SEA BREEZES TO PUSH INLAND
AND PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER INLAND AREAS...WITH BEST
COVERAGE STILL ALONG I-75 CORRIDOR NEAR LIVE OAK/LAKE CITY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS ON EVENING SOUNDINGS JUST OVER AN INCH
STILL WORKING TO LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND STILL NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
REPORTED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. JUST A FEW
ISOLD SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER INLD SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE
RIVER VALLEY WITH LAST OF SEA BREEZE MERGER UNTIL AROUND 11PM THEN
FAIR SKIES AND QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S INLAND
AND MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. HI-RES MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ANY FOG BUT SOME 3-5 MILE VSBYS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING OVER INLAND AREAS. STEERING FLOW
TURNS A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS A
BIT CLOSER TO THE US 301 AND I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-40% RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL SURGE INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S OVER INLAND AREAS WHILE SELY SEA BREEZE ALONG
THE COAST WILL KEEP HIGHS THERE IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER VFR NIGHT WITH JUST A FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING
THAT WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. HI-RES MODELS NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT
ANY FOG FORMATION AND WITH NONE LAST NIGHT HAVE LEFT OUT WITH 00Z
TAF PACKAGE. WITH SCATTERED POPS ACROSS INLD TAF SITES AFTER 19Z
WED HAVE ADDED A VCSH AT KJAX/KCRG/KVQQ/KGNV FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SE FLOW AT 10-15 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL SELY SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS STILL GENERALLY 2-4 FT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW-END MODERATE RISK WITH 2-3 FT LONG PERIOD (10-11
SECONDS) SWELLS STILL IMPACTING THE COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  89  66  87 /  20  20  30  50
SSI  67  80  68  82 /  10  10  20  40
JAX  64  87  66  87 /   0  30  30  40
SGJ  66  83  68  85 /   0  20  20  20
GNV  63  89  65  88 /  10  30  30  30
OCF  64  88  66  89 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/COMBS





000
FXUS62 KJAX 261901
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
301 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VERTICALLY STACKED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE PRIMARY MODE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
SEA BREEZE FRONT INITIATION WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FRONT BUT THE PRIMARY CONVERGENCE
BEING NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 AS THE GULF SEA BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 60.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SEABREEZE CONVECTION WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND MOVE ACROSS THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE REST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD AND DRY
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL GIVE TEMPS A
BOOST ON THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND AN ACCOMPANYING DEEPER MOISTURE
PROFILE WILL INTERACT WITH ACTIVE SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO
GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION APPROACHES THE AREA. STORMS MAY EVEN
BECOME NUMEROUS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVE BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL
CAP POPS IN THAT REGION AT 50%. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALL BUILD
TOWARD THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY BUT OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MAYBE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO.

THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON FRIDAY. THE GFS HANGS THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE UP OVER OUR AREA AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD
ALOFT. THE OTHER MODELS ARE QUICKER TO DRY US OUT ALOFT...THUS
INDICATING LESS OF A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. FOR NOW WE WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARDS THE DRIER CONSENSUS AND ONLY SHOW A 20 TO 30% CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS MAINLY JUST OUR NE FL ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ACCOUNT FOR ANY SEABREEZE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THAT CAPE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH INLAND TEMPS IN
THE LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SATURDAY STANDING A GOOD CHANCE TO CHECK IN AS THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH INLAND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S. DRIER AIRMASS
AND BUILDING RIDGE WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE SEABREEZE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM OUR NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS PUSHED
OFFSHORE WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING TAKING OVER AND PUSHING A SURFACE
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SOME
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
DIURNAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST HOWEVER IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE SEA BREEZE FRONT CONVERGENCE WILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
THE GAINESVILLE AREA AND POSSIBLY NEAR CECIL AIRPORT BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. OVERALL TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 3 AND 5 THOUSAND FEET WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING THAT DECK WEST OF KSSI...KCRG AND KSGJ.
OVERNIGHT MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG NEAR GAINESVILLE AND
CECIL WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE.

&&

.MARINE...AS THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
LATE WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. OVERALL NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RIP CURRENTS: WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW THERE WILL BE A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  86  66  87 /  10  20  30  50
SSI  66  75  68  82 /  10  10  20  40
JAX  63  84  66  87 /  10  20  30  40
SGJ  67  80  68  85 /  10  10  20  20
GNV  63  84  65  88 /  10  30  30  30
OCF  64  85  66  89 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/SHULER/SHASHY





000
FXUS62 KJAX 261901
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
301 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VERTICALLY STACKED HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE PRIMARY MODE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
SEA BREEZE FRONT INITIATION WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FRONT BUT THE PRIMARY CONVERGENCE
BEING NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 AS THE GULF SEA BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 60.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SEABREEZE CONVECTION WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND MOVE ACROSS THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN OFFSHORE BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE REST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD AND DRY
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL GIVE TEMPS A
BOOST ON THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND AN ACCOMPANYING DEEPER MOISTURE
PROFILE WILL INTERACT WITH ACTIVE SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO
GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION APPROACHES THE AREA. STORMS MAY EVEN
BECOME NUMEROUS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVE BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL
CAP POPS IN THAT REGION AT 50%. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALL BUILD
TOWARD THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY BUT OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MAYBE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO.

THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON FRIDAY. THE GFS HANGS THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE UP OVER OUR AREA AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD
ALOFT. THE OTHER MODELS ARE QUICKER TO DRY US OUT ALOFT...THUS
INDICATING LESS OF A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. FOR NOW WE WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARDS THE DRIER CONSENSUS AND ONLY SHOW A 20 TO 30% CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS MAINLY JUST OUR NE FL ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ACCOUNT FOR ANY SEABREEZE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THAT CAPE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH INLAND TEMPS IN
THE LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SATURDAY STANDING A GOOD CHANCE TO CHECK IN AS THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH INLAND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S. DRIER AIRMASS
AND BUILDING RIDGE WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE SEABREEZE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM OUR NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE GETS PUSHED
OFFSHORE WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING TAKING OVER AND PUSHING A SURFACE
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SOME
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED
DIURNAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST HOWEVER IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE SEA BREEZE FRONT CONVERGENCE WILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
THE GAINESVILLE AREA AND POSSIBLY NEAR CECIL AIRPORT BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. OVERALL TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 3 AND 5 THOUSAND FEET WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING THAT DECK WEST OF KSSI...KCRG AND KSGJ.
OVERNIGHT MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG NEAR GAINESVILLE AND
CECIL WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE.

&&

.MARINE...AS THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
LATE WEEK WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. OVERALL NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RIP CURRENTS: WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW THERE WILL BE A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  86  66  87 /  10  20  30  50
SSI  66  75  68  82 /  10  10  20  40
JAX  63  84  66  87 /  10  20  30  40
SGJ  67  80  68  85 /  10  10  20  20
GNV  63  84  65  88 /  10  30  30  30
OCF  64  85  66  89 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/SHULER/SHASHY





000
FXUS62 KJAX 261319
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
919 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
OTHER THAN JUST A SMALL AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE OKEFENOKEE AND
SOUTH GEORGIA VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL EVERYTHING IS ON TRACK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
AND NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR 10 MPH WITH
ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE INLAND AROUND GNV AS SEA BREEZES
MERGE. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL FORM IN 3 TO 5 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY FOR GAINESVILLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND UPDATE AS
THE GULF SEA BREEZE FRONT DEVELOPS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
FRIDAY WHEN DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK EXPECTED AT NE FL BEACHES WITH LOW
RISK AT SE GA BEACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  63  87  64 /  10  10  30  20
SSI  76  67  80  67 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  83  64  84  65 /   0  10  20  20
SGJ  79  67  82  66 /   0  10  20  10
GNV  86  64  86  63 /  20  10  30  20
OCF  86  65  87  64 /  20  10  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/SHULER/SHASHY





000
FXUS62 KJAX 260715
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
315 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENING ONSHORE
FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK FLOW PATTERN ALLOWING GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE TO PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND THAN WAS SEEN YESTERDAY...WITH
CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALONG TO JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE 75. WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE RESULT OF THIS MERGER DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND INLAND SE GA. HAVE
LEFT OUT THUNDER TODAY AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ENVIRONMENT
PRODUCING CONVECTION TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY LIGHTNING. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH MID 80S INLAND WITH
UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FADE AFTER SUNSET
WITH LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING. LOWS IN THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT/...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
PROVIDING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE NEARLY ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES THAT WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE AREA. THESE IMPULSES WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WHICH WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS WITH BEST
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WHERE SEABREEZES MERGE. ON
THURSDAY NIGHT A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
SE GA BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE. WITH WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S
INLAND AND LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...WARMEST
ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS NE FL ON FRIDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE INLAND AREAS.
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPS MAY REACH THE LOWER 90S ACROSS
A FEW INLAND AREAS ALTHOUGH COASTAL AREAS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
COOLER DUE TO THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT
AND GET SHUNTED SOUTH ON SUN-MON AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE AREA AGAIN AND HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS. BEST RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
ACROSS SE GA WHERE THE BEST RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL BE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT GNV AND VQQ
THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL QUITE LOW SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED. ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 10 MPH
WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE INLAND AROUND GNV AS SEA
BREEZES MERGE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
FRIDAY WHEN DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK EXPECTED AT NE FL BEACHES WITH LOW
RISK AT SE GA BEACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  63  87  64 /  10  10  30  20
SSI  76  67  80  67 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  83  64  84  65 /   0  10  20  20
SGJ  79  67  82  66 /   0  10  20  10
GNV  86  64  86  63 /  20  10  30  20
OCF  86  65  87  64 /  20  10  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

PETERSON/GUILLET/





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