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000
FXUS62 KJAX 240158
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
958 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH MILD TEMPS THIS EVENING. THE 0Z JAX
SOUNDING SHOWED AN EXTREMELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 7000
FEET WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS SHOWING UP VERY
NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING. NO PRECIP WAS OBSERVED
TODAY AND NONE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. MOST
OF THE FOG WILL BE PATCHY IN NATURE BUT THE HRRR IS SHOWING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR FOG ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE DEFINITELY FAVORABLE FOR THIS TO PLAY
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
COURTESY OF THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE
INCREASED THE FOG WORDING TO INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE I-75
CORRIDOR REGION. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED FOR EAST COAST TERMINALS DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. AREAS OF FOG MOVING INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST WILL LEAD TO
VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT GNV. HAVE MVFR AT THIS TIME...BUT NOW HAVE MORE
CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR VSBY BETWEEN 09Z-13Z AND CIGS BKN002. EXPECT
MVFR AT VQQ AND NO CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE 10-15 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND 5-10 KTS
NEAR THE COAST. EAST SWELLS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO COMBINED SEAS OF
2 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD PEAK BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AND VEER TO ONSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
ON THURSDAY DUE TO LINGERING EAST SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  83  61  85 /   0  20  20  10
SSI  63  74  65  78 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  62  80  61  85 /   0  20  20  10
SGJ  65  76  64  84 /   0  20  20  10
GNV  60  84  60  86 /  10  20  20   0
OCF  61  85  61  86 /   0  30  30   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/TRABERT/








000
FXUS62 KJAX 231900
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IS
WORKING SOUTH WHICH IS WHY CLOUDS ARE AT A MINIMUM NEAR THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS POOLING...
RESULTING IN CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH
OF THE FL/GA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO ENHANCE CU DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER. WILL FOCUS THIS SHOWER
POTENTIAL JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR...AS WELL AS ALONG
THE ST JOHNS RIVER TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT NEEDED TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE
AREA...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INLAND PROGRESSION OF ATLC AND GULF
COAST SEA BREEZES MAY HELP TRIGGER AN AFTN SHOWER OR STORM...WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO FADE IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FOR MOST
PART POPS ARE AROUND 20% BEGINNING AFTER 1 PM. FRIDAY...ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW BUT ALL MODELS SUGGEST
LOWER MEAN RH VALUES SO LOOKS TO BE DRY FCST SO POPS ARE 10% OR
LESS. TEMPS THU AND FRI WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE WARM GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S...COOLER AT THE COAST DUE ATLC SEA BREEZES BOTH DAY. SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI MORNING.

SAT AND SUN...OVER THE WEEKEND GENERALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH JUST A 15-20% CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
S AND SW. INLAND MAX TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGING MOVES E OF THE AREA LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT AS LARGE SCALE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH MOVES EWD. GENERALLY ISOLD
TO SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE MON AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES TUE
THROUGH WED AS THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECASTING
AREA. ISOLD STRONG TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUE-WED BASED ON 12Z
MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A
BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AT
FLORIDA TERMINALS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE NEAR KVQQ/KGNV.

A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND PUSH
INLAND...WHICH WILL AFFECT WIND DIRECTIONS AT COASTAL TAF SITES.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...AND MAY LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS
AT KVQQ/KGNV.

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD AND
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: A MARGINAL LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY
DUE TO LINGERING EAST SWELLS OF 2 FT AND 9-10 SECONDS. A MODERATE
RISK IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THU DUE TO LINGERING EAST SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TO IMPACT SEVERAL
LOCAL BASINS INCLUDING THE SUWANNEE...ALTAMAHA...ST MARYS AND SANTA
FE. THE SANTA FE AT THREE RIVERS ESTATES IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE
THE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE MARK BY LATE FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUE
RISE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  57  83  61 /   0  10  20  20
SSI  76  63  74  65 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  83  63  80  61 /  10  10  20  20
SGJ  79  65  76  64 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  84  61  84  60 /  20  10  30  30
OCF  85  61  85  61 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHASHY







000
FXUS62 KJAX 231735
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
135 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AFTERNOON FORECAST TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IS
WORKING SOUTH WHICH IS WHY CLOUDS ARE AT A MINIMUM NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER.

ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS
POOLING...RESULTING IN CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO BE SOUTH OF THE FL/GA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO
ENHANCE CU DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWER.

WILL FOCUS THIS SHOWER POTENTIAL JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR...AS WELL AS ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER TO
THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT
NEEDED TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.
A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON
AT FLORIDA TERMINALS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE NEAR KVQQ/KGNV.

A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND PUSH
INLAND...WHICH WILL AFFECT WIND DIRECTIONS AT COASTAL TAF SITES.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...AND MAY LEAD TO
RESTRICTIONS AT KVQQ/KGNV.

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
AFTER 18Z.


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  57  83  61 /   0  10  20  20
SSI  76  63  74  65 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  83  63  80  61 /  10  10  20  20
SGJ  79  65  76  64 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  84  61  84  60 /  20  10  30  30
OCF  85  61  85  61 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE








000
FXUS62 KJAX 231358
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
958 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IS
EXPECTED. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO POOL SOMEWHAT. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
THE FL/GA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR
CONVERGENCE...LEADING TO INCREASED CU DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER. WILL FOCUS THIS POTENTIAL MAINLY ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR...AS WELL AS ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER
TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
LIFT NEEDED TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY...CU ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AT
KGNV/KJAX/KCRG/KVQQ...BUT THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND PUSH
INLAND...WHICH WILL AFFECT WIND DIRECTIONS AT COASTAL TAF SITES.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...AND MAY LEAD TO
RESTRICTIONS AT KVQQ/KGNV.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  57  84  62 /   0  10  20  20
SSI  76  62  75  65 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  83  62  80  61 /  20  10  20  20
SGJ  79  65  76  64 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  84  61  84  59 /  10  10  30  30
OCF  85  61  85  60 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE








000
FXUS62 KJAX 230754
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
354 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW RAIN CHANCES AND WARM TEMPS...

THIS MORNING...A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT OVER SE GA WILL MEANDER
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NE FL EARLY THIS MORNING. NO PRECIP
EXPECTED...BUT WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ADVANCE SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AS WELL AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WHICH WILL PROMOTE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SATELLITE SHOWED SOME LOW STRATUS STARTING FORM NEAR THE GULF
COAST JUST NORTH OF CEDAR KEY...SO EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ADVANCING INLAND OVER THE SUWANEE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH DAYBREAK
WITH ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. MIN TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S ALONG THE ST JOHNS
RIVER BASIN AND ATLANTIC COAST. AFTER DAYBREAK...FOG WILL ERODE BY
9 AM WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 BY NOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE
HRRR...SREF...ARW AND NMM INSIST ON POPPING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
INLAND NE FL THIS AFTN AS A THERMAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE WASHED
OUT FRONTAL ZONE AND THE SEA BREEZES ADVANCE INLAND. DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS...MEAGER
MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL ACT TO
SUPPRESS BOTH CONVECTION AND CONDENSATION. OPTED TO ADVERTISE
10-14% RAIN CHANCES AFTER 4 PM AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 80S
INLAND TO UPPER 70S COAST WHERE AN AFTN SEA BREEZE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INLAND BETWEEN 1-3 PM.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NE OF THE REGION
TOWARD THE CAROLINA SEABOARD WHICH WILL BRIDGE THE FRONTAL ZONE
AND ORIENT IT MORE NW-SE OVER NE FL. COULD SEE A FEW EVENING
SHOWERS OVER NE FL...BUT AGAIN GIVEN INCREASED UPPER SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUED WITH RAIN CHANCES ONLY IN THE 10-14% RANGE. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S INLAND TO MID 60S COAST WITH SHALLOW ONSHORE FLOW.
PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS.

.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL SE
FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL PUSH SEABREEZE WELL INLAND. ISOLATED LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
A SW FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP EAST COAST SEABREEZE FRONT CLOSER TO
THE COAST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NO POPS EXPECTED FRIDAY DUE
TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND MID LEVEL DRYING OVER THE AREA AS AN
UPPER IMPULSE TO THE NORTH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING MOVING INTO
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR 90
DEGREES INLAND. ISOLATED INLAND CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH AFTN/EVE.
POPS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. MODELS DIFFER WITH UPPER
PATTERN AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CUTOFFS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY...POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT GNV AND VQQ
WHERE MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TIL 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...WEST WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS WILL BECOME ONSHORE NEAR THE
COAST THIS AFTN WITH THE SEA BREEZE. COMBINED SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL
PREVAIL WITH 2 FT SWELLS. SSE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS. FLOW VEERS SSW INTO THE
WEEKEND AS SURFACE TROUGH STALL N OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS PERSISTS OVER THE FL PENINSULA TO OUR SOUTH. COMBINED
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT THROUGH FRI...THEN 1-3 FT INTO THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO LINGERING
EAST SWELLS OF 2 FT AND 9-10 SECONDS. A MODERATE RISK IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON THU DUE TO LINGERING EAST SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TO IMPACT SEVERAL
LOCAL BASINS INCLUDING THE SUWANNEE...ALTAMAHA...ST MARYS AND SANTA
FE. THE SANTA FE AT THREE RIVERS ESTATES IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE
THE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE MARK BY THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUE RISE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  57  84  62 /   0  10  20  20
SSI  76  62  75  65 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  83  62  80  61 /  10  10  20  20
SGJ  79  65  76  64 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  84  61  84  59 /  10  10  30  30
OCF  85  61  85  60 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/ZIBURA








000
FXUS62 KJAX 230138
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
938 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH
HAZLEHURST AND BAXLEY EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE QUICKLY DWINDLED
WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER REMAINING NEAR JESUP. THIS SHOWER
WILL WRAP UP SHORTLY...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN OUR AREA.
THE 0Z JAX SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT
800 MB WHICH SHOWS WHY THE PRECIP QUICKLY SHUT DOWN. HIGH RES
MODEL DATA STILL SUGGESTS THAT PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WILL
PRIMARILY IMPACT AREAS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...TEMPS WILL MANAGE TO DIP INTO THE
UPPER 50S AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG COULD AFFECT GNV AND HAVE ADDED CIGS AT 300
FT ALTHO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS
WEST OF I-95 MAINLY 10Z TO 13Z. SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS SE GA
AND HAVE ADDED VCSH AT SSI UNTIL 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE 10-15 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND 5-10 KTS
NEAR THE COAST. EAST SWELLS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO COMBINED SEAS OF 2
FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD PEAK BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION
LEVELS. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AND VEER TO ONSHORE FOR
WEDNESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  83  59  82 /  20  10   0  10
SSI  61  73  63  75 /  10  10   0  10
JAX  59  81  61  81 /  10  10  10  20
SGJ  61  77  66  77 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  58  84  61  83 /  10  10  10  20
OCF  58  85  61  84 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/TRABERT/GUILLET









000
FXUS62 KJAX 221811
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
211 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL ANOMALIES HAS MOVED EAST INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. THE SECOND IS CONTINUING EASTWARD
OVER WESTERN ALABAMA. AT THE SURFACE...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION AND
CLOUDINESS HAS COMBINED WITH WEAK LEE STRETCHING AND CREATED A
DECENT BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RUNNING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
FAR WESTERN SC...THROUGH NORTHERN GA...AND INTO CENTRAL AL. AS THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED THROUGH CENTRAL TN AND CENTRAL MS
MOVES EAST AND INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...THERE
SHOULD BE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THESE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH OUR SOUTHEASTERN GA
COUNTIES BY THIS EVENING AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST TO THE FL/GA LINE A
FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ANYTHING BUT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO WILL TRICKLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...ACROSS MOST OF N FL...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG BY LATE TONIGHT NEARING DAWN.

AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY WITH ZONAL
FLOW THEREAFTER. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW...BUT WITH LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT...WE KEPT POPS
IN THE SILENT 10 RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BY THURSDAY VEERING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO INTERACT WITH THE GULF BREEZE WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEGINNING WELL
INLAND AND THEN MIGRATING TOWARD THE COAST TOWARD IN THE EVENING.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS
WITH LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND AND COOLER UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST.
THE COOLING AFFECT OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL WORK JUST A BIT FURTHER
INLAND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S WELL
INLAND TO THE MID 60S AT THE COAST.

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SHORT
WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S
INLAND WITH DAILY SEA BREEZES KEEPING THE COAST IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR GNV...WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS CIGS DROPPING TO LIFR
AROUND 12Z BUT IMPROVING AROUND 14Z. VCSH AROUND 02Z AT SSI AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES SE GA. SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR SSI BY 06Z. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LOW CIGS AT SSI AND LOW VSBYS AT VQQ
TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL CHANCE IS LOW SO LEFT OUT FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT...BUT
SHOULD PEAK JUST BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS. THIS MAY BRIEF HALT
THE REDUCTION IN SEAS...AT LEAST OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE
AND VEER AROUND TO ONSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD INCREASE BRIEFLY TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS BEFORE
VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND DECREASING FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS. TODAY...
SWELLS OF 3-5 FT WERE IMPACTING THE WATERS WITH PERIODS OF 8-12
SECONDS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS...HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TO IMPACT MANY LOCAL RIVER
BASINS. SITES ALONG THE ST MARYS RIVER ARE FALLING BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON THE ALTAMAHA...
SITES ARE IN OR NEAR A BROAD CREST EXCEPT AT EVERETT CITY WHERE
THE RIVER IS STILL RISING. RISES CONTINUE ON THE SUWANNEE AND
SANTA FE AS WELL...WITH THREE RIVERS AT SANTA FE FORECAST TO REACH
MAJOR FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  84  58  83 /  40  10   0  20
SSI  62  72  64  73 /  30  10   0  10
JAX  60  81  62  80 /  20  10  10  20
SGJ  61  79  66  77 /   0  10  10  20
GNV  57  85  60  85 /   0  10  10  20
OCF  58  85  61  85 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN/WOOL
LONG TERM...ENYEDI/ZIBURA
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN/MOORE







000
FXUS62 KJAX 221448
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1048 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...

TWO SMALL +PV ANOMALIES WERE DEPICTED IN THIS MORNINGS WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS. ONE WAS LOCATED FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...SOUTH
THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...CONTINUING THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND...AND ON INTO THE GULF. THE OTHER WAS FURTHER WEST AND
ESSENTIALLY CO-LOCATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT ANALYZED THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FIRST AND WEAKEST
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY AS IT MERGES IN WITH THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE. AS THE ENTIRE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT AND WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY THIS EVENING. IN
GENERAL...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ON THE WEAKENING TREND AS
THE MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH GEORGIA. LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE...THOUGH IF A FEW SPRINKLES MAKE
IT...IT WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT...AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS...WHILE REMAINING
AROUND 80 DEGREES NEARER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. VCSH AFTER 00Z AT
SSI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SE GA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [345 AM EDT]...

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON THURSDAY MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED
SEABREEZE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE LEVELS.


LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL BE NEARLY
ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH DAILY SEABREEZES KEEPING
THE COAST IN THE LOWER 80S.


MARINE...COMBINED SEAS WERE BELOW 5 FT AND THUS DROPPED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE FL WATERS. WEST WINDS OF 10 KTS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS NEAR THE COAST
THIS AFTN WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OFFSHORE DUE TO LINGERING EAST SWELLS
OF 2-3 FT. WSW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT TO NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION
CRITERIA OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS AS A WEAKENING SFC FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE WED WHILE SHIFT NNE
AS HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE REGION BRIDGES THE FRONTAL ZONE.
EASTERLY FLOW 10-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...THEN
FRI WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS OFFSHORE OF THE SE
COAST WITH A PREVAILING SSW FLOW EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE RIDGE AXIS PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA.

RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN ON WED DUE TO LONG PERIOD EAST SWELLS. EARLY THIS MORNING
SWELLS OF 2-3 FT WERE IMPACTING THE WATERS WITH PERIODS OF 12-13
SECONDS.


HYDROLOGY...SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TO IMPACT MANY
LOCAL RIVER BASINS INCLUDING THE ALTAMAHA...SANTA FE...ST
MARYS...AND SUWANNEE RIVERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  60  83  59 /  20  60  10   0
SSI  76  64  73  63 /   0  40  10   0
JAX  84  62  81  61 /   0  20  10  10
SGJ  81  62  77  66 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  84  60  84  61 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  83  58  85  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...WFO TAE (HARRIGAN/MOORE)
REST OF DISCUSSION...WFO JAX (ZIBURA/ENYEDI)









000
FXUS62 KJAX 220745
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
345 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014


.SHORT TERM...THIS MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO INCREASE
FROM THE WNW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE. PATCHY MORNING
FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS
WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE WITH A FEW SPOTS
DROPPING INTERMITTENTLY TO AROUND 1 MILE. MIN TEMPS WERE ON TRACK
TO FALL IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID 50S COAST. AFTER DAYBREAK
FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH A WARM WESTERLY WIND RISING TEMPS
INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S BY NOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...WESTERLY WINDS WILL NEAR 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
AT TIMES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER NE FL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE NW. HIGHS WILL
WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S INLAND TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED LATE THIS
AFTN. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE A LOW 20-30% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE GA GENERALLY AFTER 3 PM WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH FRONTAL FORCING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL CAP OVER NE FL AND KEPT RAIN
CHANCES AT 5-10%. DYNAMICS WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND MOISTURE
BECOMES MORE MEAGER AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER S AND
CENTRAL GA THIS AFTN BUT 500 MB TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM -12 TO -14
DEG C WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WITH DEW PTS NEARING 60
DEG F. THIS PROFILE WILL BRING MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER SE GA.

TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE HOLDS FIRM OVER NE FL WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF MAINLY EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER
SE GA AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO THIN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER WITH VALUES
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND TO MID 60S COAST. PATCHY FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH MOISTURE POOLING AROUND THE DRIFTING FRONTAL ZONES.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID
80S ON THURSDAY MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH DAILY SEABREEZES KEEPING
THE COAST IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL RESULT IN MVFR AND IFR VSBYS
AT VQQ AND GNV TIL 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. VCSH
AFTER 00Z AT SSI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SE GA.

&&

.MARINE...COMBINED SEAS WERE BELOW 5 FT AND THUS DROPPED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE FL WATERS. WEST WINDS OF 10 KTS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS NEAR THE COAST
THIS AFTN WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OFFSHORE DUE TO LINGERING EAST SWELLS
OF 2-3 FT. WSW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT TO NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION
CRITERIA OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS AS A WEAKENING SFC FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE WED WHILE SHIFT NNE
AS HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE REGION BRIDGES THE FRONTAL ZONE.
EASTERLY FLOW 10-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...THEN
FRI WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS OFFSHORE OF THE SE
COAST WITH A PREVAILING SSW FLOW EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE RIDGE AXIS PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA.

RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN ON WED DUE TO LONG PERIOD EAST SWELLS. EARLY THIS MORNING
SWELLS OF 2-3 FT WERE IMPACTING THE WATERS WITH PERIODS OF 12-13
SECONDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TO IMPACT MANY LOCAL
RIVER BASINS INCLUDING THE ALTAMAHA...SANTA FE...ST MARYS...AND SUWANNEE
RIVERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  84  60  83  59 /  20  30  10   0
SSI  78  64  73  63 /  10  20  10   0
JAX  82  62  81  61 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  79  62  77  66 /   0  10  10  10
GNV  82  60  84  61 /   0  10  10  10
OCF  81  58  85  61 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/ZIBURA








000
FXUS62 KJAX 220116
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
916 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE
WEST AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES. SOME PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR NE FL...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
THE ZFP/GRIDS. MIN TEMPS NEAR CLIMO VALUES IN THE 50S. MOSTLY
SUNNY START TO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 80-85 DEG RANGE
BY THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT MAY TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS ACROSS INLD
SE GA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WITH OCNL MVFR VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT GNV
AND VQQ BETWEEN 08Z-12Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS CONTINUING
TO SUBSIDE AND HAVE DROPPED THE ADVISORY FOR THE SE GA OFFSHORE
WATERS AND CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR THE
NE FL OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LINGER INTO
TUESDAY DUE TO EASTERLY SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  83  59  81 /   0  30  30  10
SSI  59  79  62  76 /   0  20  20  10
JAX  55  82  60  79 /   0  10  10  20
SGJ  57  80  62  78 /   0  10  10  20
GNV  55  83  59  84 /   0  10  10  20
OCF  56  83  59  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/MCALLISTER






000
FXUS62 KJAX 211844
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
244 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EJECT TO THE NE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ENTERING THE REGION. THE LOW
CLOUD DECK THAT HA PLAGUED THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND IS ERODING
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ACROSS
NE FL AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SE GA. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AREA WIDE LATE THIS AFTN...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
MOST AREAS TNGT INTO TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES
THE AREA. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 50S FOR INTERIOR
SECTIONS...WITH 55-60 CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA IN THE AFTN...WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
LATER IN THE AFTN...SO WILL LIMIT POPS TO FAR INTERIOR SE GA...WHERE
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED POPS WILL BE USED...WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM
POSSIBLE. W/SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A NICE WARMUP...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER/MID 80S INLAND...AND UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 COAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND KEPT 20% RAIN CHANCES GOING
ACROSS MAINLY SE GA DURING THE EVE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AFT MIDNIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR
AS WESTERLY FLOW MAY ADVECT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE COMBINED WITH
THE MERGER OF SEA BREEZES MAY HELP PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ACROSS INLAND NE FL. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE LOW/MID 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST WITH AN ONSHORE
FLOW. ANY ISOLATED STORMS THAT MANAGE TO GET GOING WILL RAPIDLY END
DURING THE EARLY EVE. MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THU A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
COMBINED WITH WEAK COASTAL CONVERGENCE COULD BRING A MORNING SHOWER
INLAND...WITH AN AFTN TSTORM POSSIBLE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE
SEA BREEZES AND ADVERTISED 15-20% RAIN CHANCES. FRI HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN CHANCES 10% OR LESS. LATE SAT
THROUGH MON A SHEARED OUT STALLING FRONTAL ZONE WILL DRIFT OVER THE
REGION AND COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZES COULD SPARK ISOLATED MAINLY
LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTORMS. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID
80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S/LOW 80S COAST WITH MINS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUD DECKS HAVE RISEN TO 3000-3500 FT MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS
EVE AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE EVE AND EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT WITH FEW HIGH CLOUDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY
LATE NIGHT FOG WITH OCNL MVFR VSBY AT GNV AND VQQ BETWEEN
08Z-12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL RETAIN THE SCA OFFSHORE...AS SEAS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM
LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 7 FEET TNGT. CONDITIONS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CAUTION LEVEL WINDS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK SYSTEM.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW RISK LIKELY TUESDAY
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  52  83  59  81 /   0  30  30  10
SSI  57  77  62  76 /   0  20  20  10
JAX  54  84  60  79 /   0  10  10  20
SGJ  57  79  62  78 /   0  10  10  20
GNV  53  83  59  84 /   0  10  10  20
OCF  55  83  59  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/PETERSON














000
FXUS62 KJAX 211325
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
925 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EJECT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW/MID CLOUD DECK EXTENDS FROM JUST
OFFSHORE THE SE GA COAST SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE JUST EAST OF THE
I-75 CORRIDOR IN NORTH-CENTRAL FL. AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER
OFFSHORE LATER IN THE DAY...THE CLOUD SHIELD WILL WORK EAST TO
THE NE FL COAST BY NOON OR SO...THEN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WILL BUMP UP HIGHS TODAY A BIT
ACROSS SE GA AS THE CLOUD DECK HAS CLEARED THAT AREA...OTHERWISE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUD DECKS WITH CIGS 1500-2000FT ARE STILL LINGERING
ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL LIFT BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CLOUD DECKS ARE SOUTH OF THE UPPER SE GA COAST AND MOVING SW.
EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF THE JAX METRO AREA BY
AROUND 16Z. GNV WILL HAVE OCNL MVFR CIGS TIL AROUND 18Z-19Z. SSI
WILL HAVE OCNL MVFR CIGS TIL AROUND 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT BUOY 41009 HAVE FALLEN TO 5 FEET/ HOWEVER...WITH N/NW
FLOW...SEAS NEAR THE GULF STREAM ARE LIKELY QUITE HIGHER...THUS
WILL KEEP THE SCA OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTN. WILL LIKELY
DROP THE CAUTION NEARSHORE...AS SEAS ARE NOW UNDER 6 FEET.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  52  81  59 /   0   0  30  30
SSI  71  54  75  62 /   0   0  20  20
JAX  76  53  83  62 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  71  56  78  62 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  79  53  82  60 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  79  54  82  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/PETERSON/GUILLET











000
FXUS62 KJAX 210741
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
341 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.CURRENTLY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1022
MILLIBARS) COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AS LOW PRESSURE
(1010 MILLIBARS) CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM
THE CAROLINA COAST. STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM THE GULF STREAM WATERS INTO NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WHILE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO NEAR 60 IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
ALOFT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO OUR REGION IN THE WAKE
OF THE STACKED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM CONTINUES...AS THE NEXT TROUGH
TO AFFECT OUR REGION IS DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS IN MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FL...WHILE
FAIR SKIES PREVAIL OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. AS
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE...AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS DEPICT DEEP-LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS WILL SLOWLY SCOUR OUT THE STRATOCUMULUS
DECK IN OUR FL COUNTIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SUBSTANTIALLY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 70S INLAND...AND NEAR 70 IN COASTAL LOCATIONS...DUE TO
DEVELOPING ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL PROGRESS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES OVERNIGHT...SPREADING
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST GA. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST FL...WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTHEAST FL. LOWS INLAND WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 50-55...WITH UPPER 50S EXPECTED AT THE COAST.

TUE & TUE NIGHT...WARN WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL RAISE TEMPS INTO THE LOW 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S COAST WHERE
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED DURING THE LATE AFTN.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER SE GA DURING THE AFTN TO 20-30% AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. OPTED TO INCLUDE TSTORMS FOR SE GA
WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -14 DEG C
PRECEDE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S.
LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION WILL BE MOISTURE AS SFC DEW PTS
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S. PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND SHIFTED
20% RAIN CHANCES OFFSHORE OF THE SE GA COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
OVER NE FL. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP TUE NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO STALL OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND UPPER
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AS THE FRONTAL ZONE LINGERS WITH
SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE.

WED & WED NIGHT...LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZES
MAY SPARK A LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWER/TSTORM AND ADVERTISED 20%
RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 80S INLAND TO UPPER
70S COAST. RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS MIN
TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW/MID 60S COAST.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THU A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
COMBINED WITH WEAK COASTAL CONVERGENCE COULD BRING A MORNING
SHOWER INLAND...WITH AN AFTN TSTORM POSSIBLE DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH THE SEA BREEZES AND ADVERTISED 15-20% RAIN CHANCES. FRI HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN CHANCES 10% OR
LESS. LATE SAT THROUGH MON A SHEARED OUT STALLING FRONTAL ZONE
WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZES COULD
SPARK ISOLATED MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S/LOW 80S COAST
WITH MINS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING UNDER A BKN DECK OF 3.3-3.5 KFT CIGS
TREKKING INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC...WHILE DRIER AIR WAS TRYING TO
ERODE THE CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH. AFTER DAYBREAK ANTICIPATE CIGS
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED BY AFTN.
NNE WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 15-18 KTS ARE LIKELY BY 14Z-
16Z THEN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL OFFSHORE AS THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAROLINA
COAST. WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS...WHERE A CAUTION HEADLINE WILL BE USED TODAY AS SEAS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT OFFSHORE...AS SEAS REMAIN IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE WHILE WINDS
SUBSIDE. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY TUES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT...WHICH WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF CAUTION LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS IS POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUES EVENING OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BECOME
ONSHORE BY LATE WED INTO THURS...WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW CAUTION LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: HIGH-END MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO LONG-PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELLS AND A LINGERING LONGSHORE CURRENT. LINGERING LONG-
PERIOD SWELL WILL KEEP A MODERATE RISK IN PLACE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  52  81  59 /   0   0  30  30
SSI  71  54  75  62 /   0   0  20  20
JAX  76  53  83  62 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  71  56  78  62 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  79  53  82  60 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  79  54  82  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

NELSON/ENYEDI









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