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000
FXUS62 KJAX 131851
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
151 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016


.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE TONIGHT WITH WINDS DROPPING OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER SE GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY. A LIGHT BRIEF FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE
AREAS WITH PATCHY INLAND FROST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
STAY UP AND BECOME ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S NEAR THE WATER.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY AND OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL FORM ALONG THE SE COAST WITH INCREASING NE
WINDS AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF COASTAL SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AS INVERTED TROUGH BREAKS
DOWN AND WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH ON SUNDAY...WARMING INTO UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD GIVE US A QUICK SHOT
OF RAIN ON TUESDAY. AFTER THAT THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS HIGH SHOULD
BRING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY HEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
NEXT SUNDAY.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT WEEK
AND OTHER THAN TUESDAY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES WITH DECREASING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRATOCUMULUS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AFTER 10Z WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND INVERTED TROUGH FORMING
OVER THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE NE WINDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS. WILL STILL GO WITH SCEC
HEADLINE FOR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTH ON MONDAY AS
HIGH AND TROUGH WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
BRINGING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NW. ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK BECOMING MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS WINDS
BECOME ONSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  31  55  42  70 /   0   0  10  20
SSI  35  52  44  65 /   0  10  30  10
JAX  36  57  47  71 /   0  10  30  20
SGJ  40  59  52  70 /   0  20  20  20
GNV  34  63  47  72 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  37  66  50  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/SANDRIK/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KJAX 131851
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
151 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016


.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE TONIGHT WITH WINDS DROPPING OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER SE GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY. A LIGHT BRIEF FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE
AREAS WITH PATCHY INLAND FROST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
STAY UP AND BECOME ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S NEAR THE WATER.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY AND OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL FORM ALONG THE SE COAST WITH INCREASING NE
WINDS AND MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF COASTAL SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AS INVERTED TROUGH BREAKS
DOWN AND WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH ON SUNDAY...WARMING INTO UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD GIVE US A QUICK SHOT
OF RAIN ON TUESDAY. AFTER THAT THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS HIGH SHOULD
BRING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY HEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
NEXT SUNDAY.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT WEEK
AND OTHER THAN TUESDAY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES WITH DECREASING WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRATOCUMULUS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AFTER 10Z WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND INVERTED TROUGH FORMING
OVER THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE NE WINDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS. WILL STILL GO WITH SCEC
HEADLINE FOR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTH ON MONDAY AS
HIGH AND TROUGH WEAKEN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
BRINGING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NW. ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK BECOMING MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS WINDS
BECOME ONSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  31  55  42  70 /   0   0  10  20
SSI  35  52  44  65 /   0  10  30  10
JAX  36  57  47  71 /   0  10  30  20
SGJ  40  59  52  70 /   0  20  20  20
GNV  34  63  47  72 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  37  66  50  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/SANDRIK/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 131428
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
928 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
LOOKING AT THE EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS MOVED DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH DROPPING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES.OVERALL ITS GOING TO BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
UPPER 20S. WHILE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS INLAND THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A NORTHWEST AND NORTH FLOW OF 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
LIGHT CHOP OF SMALLER AIRCRAFT BELOW 10 KFT. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS NEARSHORE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AND AS THE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY WINDS WILL BECOME EAST
TO SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND MODERATE RISK ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  30  54  39 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  53  35  50  45 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  56  34  57  46 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  55  40  57  50 /   0   0  20  20
GNV  60  33  64  46 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  62  36  65  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SANDRIK/ZIBURA/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KJAX 130843
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
343 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EAST COAST TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WAS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE REGION OCCURRED JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION
BEFORE DAWN. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND 30S TOWARDS THE COAST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES THERE WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. A LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE SUWANEE
RIVER VALLEY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA. WITH FORECAST LOWS OF 32-34
DEGREES...DID NOT ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. FROST IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT.


.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. THE RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH BEGINS TO BRING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE RESULTING IN
A FEW LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME COASTAL SHOWERS AS A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH. MAX TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA AND COASTAL NE FL. HOWEVER...MILDER SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE NE FL COAST.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE U.S.
MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WITH BULK OF PCP MONDAY
NIGHT. APPEARS MOST OF THE STRONG DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA...
BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY/SHEAR FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS AREA WIDE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PCP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK NE AND THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU MID WEEK
PROVIDING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...BUT NO FREEZES EXPECTED. LATER IN THE WEEK... THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RESULTS IN A WARMING TREND
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THE MORNING. PATCHY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AT GNV BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WEST
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES ARE
FORECAST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND 15-20 KNOTS NEARSHORE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON MONDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND MODERATE RISK ON SUNDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WHICH USHERS IN
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ON BREEZY NW WINDS TODAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS INLAND
BUT FUEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT
RED FLAG CONDITIONS. MIN RH`S ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE
ONSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  30  54  39 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  53  35  50  45 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  56  34  57  46 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  55  40  57  50 /   0   0  20  20
GNV  60  33  64  46 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  62  36  65  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PETERSON/KENNEDY/





000
FXUS62 KJAX 130843
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
343 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EAST COAST TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WAS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE REGION OCCURRED JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION
BEFORE DAWN. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND 30S TOWARDS THE COAST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES THERE WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. A LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE SUWANEE
RIVER VALLEY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA. WITH FORECAST LOWS OF 32-34
DEGREES...DID NOT ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. FROST IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT.


.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. THE RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH BEGINS TO BRING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE RESULTING IN
A FEW LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME COASTAL SHOWERS AS A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH. MAX TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA AND COASTAL NE FL. HOWEVER...MILDER SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE NE FL COAST.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE U.S.
MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WITH BULK OF PCP MONDAY
NIGHT. APPEARS MOST OF THE STRONG DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA...
BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY/SHEAR FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS AREA WIDE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PCP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK NE AND THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU MID WEEK
PROVIDING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...BUT NO FREEZES EXPECTED. LATER IN THE WEEK... THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RESULTS IN A WARMING TREND
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THE MORNING. PATCHY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AT GNV BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WEST
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES ARE
FORECAST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND 15-20 KNOTS NEARSHORE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON MONDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND MODERATE RISK ON SUNDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WHICH USHERS IN
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ON BREEZY NW WINDS TODAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS INLAND
BUT FUEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT
RED FLAG CONDITIONS. MIN RH`S ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE
ONSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  30  54  39 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  53  35  50  45 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  56  34  57  46 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  55  40  57  50 /   0   0  20  20
GNV  60  33  64  46 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  62  36  65  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PETERSON/KENNEDY/





000
FXUS62 KJAX 130843
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
343 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EAST COAST TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WAS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE REGION OCCURRED JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION
BEFORE DAWN. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND 30S TOWARDS THE COAST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND TEMPERATURES THERE WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. A LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE SUWANEE
RIVER VALLEY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA. WITH FORECAST LOWS OF 32-34
DEGREES...DID NOT ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. FROST IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT.


.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. THE RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH BEGINS TO BRING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE RESULTING IN
A FEW LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME COASTAL SHOWERS AS A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH. MAX TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA AND COASTAL NE FL. HOWEVER...MILDER SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE NE FL COAST.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE U.S.
MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WITH BULK OF PCP MONDAY
NIGHT. APPEARS MOST OF THE STRONG DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA...
BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY/SHEAR FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS AREA WIDE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PCP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK NE AND THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU MID WEEK
PROVIDING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...BUT NO FREEZES EXPECTED. LATER IN THE WEEK... THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RESULTS IN A WARMING TREND
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THE MORNING. PATCHY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AT GNV BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WEST
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES ARE
FORECAST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO
20-25 KNOTS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND 15-20 KNOTS NEARSHORE
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON MONDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND MODERATE RISK ON SUNDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WHICH USHERS IN
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ON BREEZY NW WINDS TODAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS INLAND
BUT FUEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT
RED FLAG CONDITIONS. MIN RH`S ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE
ONSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  30  54  39 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  53  35  50  45 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  56  34  57  46 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  55  40  57  50 /   0   0  20  20
GNV  60  33  64  46 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  62  36  65  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PETERSON/KENNEDY/




000
FXUS62 KJAX 130130
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
830 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS PRESSING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN THIS EVENING MARKED BY A DEW PT
GRADIENT AND PRECEDED BY A FEW BANDS OF LOW/MID LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS...ONE MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE SE GA COAST AND THE
OTHER DRIFTING INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL FL. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED WITH MILD PRE-FRONTAL TEMPS IN THE LOW/60S. MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE THIS EVENING WAS THE BREEZY WESTERLY FLOW WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES...NOW DECREASING TO AROUND 20-25 MPH
ONLY NOW TOWARD THE FL ATLANTIC COAST. 00Z JAX SOUNDING INDICATED
30 KTS WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY AT TIMES UNDER THE PASSING STRATOCUMULUS...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO FALL
INTO THE LOW/MID 40S OVERNIGHT TRAILING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
WINDS NEAR 10 MPH BY DAYBREAK OVER SE GA AND ALONG THE COAST...WHICH
WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW/MID 30S.

SUNNY SKIES UNDER BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT WITH
HIGH TEMPS RANGING IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FL
ZONES. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED BREEZY NW WINDS BY MID-
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH...THEN WINDS DECREASING MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. BREEZY WSW WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL SHIFT NNW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
MID-MORNING WITH GUSTS NEARING 18-20 KTS SAT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN NEAR 8-10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THUS WILL NOT NEED
WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL 2 KFT WINDS WILL NEAR 30
KTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...GUSTY WNW WINDS RANGING FROM 15-20 KNOTS NEAR SHORE TO
20-25 KTS OFFSHORE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND
TRAILING THE COLD FRONT WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINED OVER OF
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND ADVISORY OFFSHORE. MIXING DOWN OF
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT COULD BRING
GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE AND CONTINUED TO MENTION OCCASIONAL GUSTS
NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED SAT. INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK ON
SUNDAY DUE TO DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR BREEZY NNW WINDS
TOMORROW DEVELOPING BY MID-MORNING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY...THEN A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN MAGNITUDES AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH A DRIER AIRMASS WITH
MIN RHS NEAR 20-30% INLAND COULD CREATE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  40  54  32  52 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  42  53  35  50 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  44  56  36  56 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  45  55  40  58 /   0   0   0  20
GNV  45  59  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  48  62  36  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/STRUBLE/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 130130
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
830 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS PRESSING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN THIS EVENING MARKED BY A DEW PT
GRADIENT AND PRECEDED BY A FEW BANDS OF LOW/MID LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS...ONE MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE SE GA COAST AND THE
OTHER DRIFTING INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL FL. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED WITH MILD PRE-FRONTAL TEMPS IN THE LOW/60S. MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE THIS EVENING WAS THE BREEZY WESTERLY FLOW WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES...NOW DECREASING TO AROUND 20-25 MPH
ONLY NOW TOWARD THE FL ATLANTIC COAST. 00Z JAX SOUNDING INDICATED
30 KTS WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY AT TIMES UNDER THE PASSING STRATOCUMULUS...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO FALL
INTO THE LOW/MID 40S OVERNIGHT TRAILING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
WINDS NEAR 10 MPH BY DAYBREAK OVER SE GA AND ALONG THE COAST...WHICH
WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW/MID 30S.

SUNNY SKIES UNDER BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT WITH
HIGH TEMPS RANGING IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FL
ZONES. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED BREEZY NW WINDS BY MID-
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH...THEN WINDS DECREASING MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. BREEZY WSW WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL SHIFT NNW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
MID-MORNING WITH GUSTS NEARING 18-20 KTS SAT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN NEAR 8-10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THUS WILL NOT NEED
WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL 2 KFT WINDS WILL NEAR 30
KTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...GUSTY WNW WINDS RANGING FROM 15-20 KNOTS NEAR SHORE TO
20-25 KTS OFFSHORE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND
TRAILING THE COLD FRONT WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINED OVER OF
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND ADVISORY OFFSHORE. MIXING DOWN OF
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT COULD BRING
GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE AND CONTINUED TO MENTION OCCASIONAL GUSTS
NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED SAT. INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK ON
SUNDAY DUE TO DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR BREEZY NNW WINDS
TOMORROW DEVELOPING BY MID-MORNING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY...THEN A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN MAGNITUDES AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH A DRIER AIRMASS WITH
MIN RHS NEAR 20-30% INLAND COULD CREATE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  40  54  32  52 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  42  53  35  50 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  44  56  36  56 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  45  55  40  58 /   0   0   0  20
GNV  45  59  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  48  62  36  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/STRUBLE/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 130130
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
830 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS PRESSING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN THIS EVENING MARKED BY A DEW PT
GRADIENT AND PRECEDED BY A FEW BANDS OF LOW/MID LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS...ONE MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE SE GA COAST AND THE
OTHER DRIFTING INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL FL. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED WITH MILD PRE-FRONTAL TEMPS IN THE LOW/60S. MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE THIS EVENING WAS THE BREEZY WESTERLY FLOW WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES...NOW DECREASING TO AROUND 20-25 MPH
ONLY NOW TOWARD THE FL ATLANTIC COAST. 00Z JAX SOUNDING INDICATED
30 KTS WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY AT TIMES UNDER THE PASSING STRATOCUMULUS...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO FALL
INTO THE LOW/MID 40S OVERNIGHT TRAILING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
WINDS NEAR 10 MPH BY DAYBREAK OVER SE GA AND ALONG THE COAST...WHICH
WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW/MID 30S.

SUNNY SKIES UNDER BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT WITH
HIGH TEMPS RANGING IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FL
ZONES. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED BREEZY NW WINDS BY MID-
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH...THEN WINDS DECREASING MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. BREEZY WSW WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL SHIFT NNW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
MID-MORNING WITH GUSTS NEARING 18-20 KTS SAT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN NEAR 8-10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THUS WILL NOT NEED
WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL 2 KFT WINDS WILL NEAR 30
KTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...GUSTY WNW WINDS RANGING FROM 15-20 KNOTS NEAR SHORE TO
20-25 KTS OFFSHORE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND
TRAILING THE COLD FRONT WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINED OVER OF
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND ADVISORY OFFSHORE. MIXING DOWN OF
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT COULD BRING
GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE AND CONTINUED TO MENTION OCCASIONAL GUSTS
NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED SAT. INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK ON
SUNDAY DUE TO DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR BREEZY NNW WINDS
TOMORROW DEVELOPING BY MID-MORNING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY...THEN A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN MAGNITUDES AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH A DRIER AIRMASS WITH
MIN RHS NEAR 20-30% INLAND COULD CREATE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  40  54  32  52 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  42  53  35  50 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  44  56  36  56 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  45  55  40  58 /   0   0   0  20
GNV  45  59  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  48  62  36  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/STRUBLE/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 121922
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
222 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO HOVER JUST NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER THIS AFTN. LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO POOL CLOSE TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH SOME SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE
DECK HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTN. FURTHER SOUTH...MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER STORY TODAY IS THE WIND...WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS AREA WIDE...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH...JUST UNDER
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET A NUDGE SOUTHWARD AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SE CONUS...EJECTING TO THE E/NE LATER TNGT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER NE FL LATER THIS EVENING...EXITING INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY. WITH THE MID LEVEL SUPPORT BECOMING
VERY STRETCHED...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LIMITED...KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY WITH A FEW CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS. WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
EXITING TO THE NE TNGT...THE LOOSENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING....ALTHOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR SE GA/NE FL AND
45-50 FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL. SUNNY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL SATURDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 50S FOR SE
GA/NE FL TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH TO
THE NORTH AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT BRIEF
FREEZE POSSIBLE INLAND. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
NORTH TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO
AVERAGE LEVELS ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...12Z MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
IN PUSHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NE FL/SE GA AROUND 12Z TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND END ANY EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NIL
POPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
RETURN LOW LEVEL WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE GULF AND SE WILL START THE NEXT WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. W/SW WINDS 12-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT THIS AFTN WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT
AND SHIFT TO THE NW BY MORNING. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 10-12 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT FOR SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT...EXITING TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE THE SCA OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT CROSSES. WILL USE CAUTION FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. AFTER SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY/TUESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM TEMPERATURES AND SW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH
HAVE PRODUCED HIGH DISPERSIONS TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH CRITICALLY LOW RH`S EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  40  54  32  52 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  42  53  35  50 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  44  56  36  56 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  45  55  40  58 /   0   0   0  20
GNV  45  59  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  48  62  36  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/ZIBURA/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 121922
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
222 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO HOVER JUST NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER THIS AFTN. LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO POOL CLOSE TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH SOME SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE
DECK HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTN. FURTHER SOUTH...MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER STORY TODAY IS THE WIND...WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS AREA WIDE...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH...JUST UNDER
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET A NUDGE SOUTHWARD AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SE CONUS...EJECTING TO THE E/NE LATER TNGT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER NE FL LATER THIS EVENING...EXITING INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY. WITH THE MID LEVEL SUPPORT BECOMING
VERY STRETCHED...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LIMITED...KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY WITH A FEW CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS. WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
EXITING TO THE NE TNGT...THE LOOSENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING....ALTHOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR SE GA/NE FL AND
45-50 FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL. SUNNY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL SATURDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 50S FOR SE
GA/NE FL TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH TO
THE NORTH AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT BRIEF
FREEZE POSSIBLE INLAND. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
NORTH TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO
AVERAGE LEVELS ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...12Z MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
IN PUSHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NE FL/SE GA AROUND 12Z TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND END ANY EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NIL
POPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
RETURN LOW LEVEL WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE GULF AND SE WILL START THE NEXT WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. W/SW WINDS 12-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT THIS AFTN WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT
AND SHIFT TO THE NW BY MORNING. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 10-12 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT FOR SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT...EXITING TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE THE SCA OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT CROSSES. WILL USE CAUTION FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. AFTER SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY/TUESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM TEMPERATURES AND SW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH
HAVE PRODUCED HIGH DISPERSIONS TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH CRITICALLY LOW RH`S EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  40  54  32  52 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  42  53  35  50 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  44  56  36  56 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  45  55  40  58 /   0   0   0  20
GNV  45  59  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  48  62  36  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/ZIBURA/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 121922
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
222 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO HOVER JUST NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER THIS AFTN. LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO POOL CLOSE TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH SOME SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE
DECK HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTN. FURTHER SOUTH...MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER STORY TODAY IS THE WIND...WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS AREA WIDE...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH...JUST UNDER
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET A NUDGE SOUTHWARD AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SE CONUS...EJECTING TO THE E/NE LATER TNGT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER NE FL LATER THIS EVENING...EXITING INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY. WITH THE MID LEVEL SUPPORT BECOMING
VERY STRETCHED...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LIMITED...KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY WITH A FEW CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS. WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
EXITING TO THE NE TNGT...THE LOOSENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING....ALTHOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR SE GA/NE FL AND
45-50 FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL. SUNNY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL SATURDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 50S FOR SE
GA/NE FL TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH TO
THE NORTH AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT BRIEF
FREEZE POSSIBLE INLAND. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
NORTH TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO
AVERAGE LEVELS ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...12Z MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
IN PUSHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NE FL/SE GA AROUND 12Z TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND END ANY EARLY MORNING SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NIL
POPS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
RETURN LOW LEVEL WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE GULF AND SE WILL START THE NEXT WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. W/SW WINDS 12-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT THIS AFTN WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT
AND SHIFT TO THE NW BY MORNING. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 10-12 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT FOR SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS
THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT...EXITING TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE THE SCA OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT CROSSES. WILL USE CAUTION FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. AFTER SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY/TUESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM TEMPERATURES AND SW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH
HAVE PRODUCED HIGH DISPERSIONS TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH CRITICALLY LOW RH`S EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  40  54  32  52 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  42  53  35  50 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  44  56  36  56 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  45  55  40  58 /   0   0   0  20
GNV  45  59  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  48  62  36  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/ZIBURA/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 121332
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
832 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDAR6Y CONTINUES TO HOVER ACROSS
CENTRAL GA. A BANK OF LOW/MID DECK CLOUDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS SE GA...WITH SOME OF THE CLOUDS NUDGING SOUTH INTO
EXTREME NE FL. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...GIVING THE BOUNDARY A LITTLE PUSH
TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE FRONT ENTERING NE FL THIS EVENING. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS EXTREMELY LIMITED...SO EVEN WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER SE GA THIS AFTN. WILL KEEP POPS VERY LOW
FOR THIS REMOTE POSSIBILITY. WILL MONITOR CLOUD COVER FOR PERHAPS
A NEEDED LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS SE GA...OTHERWISE LOCALLY
BREEZY SW WINDS WILL RESULT IN A NICE WARMUP TODAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 60S CLOSE TO THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SSI INTO THIS AFTN. W/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AT BUOY 41008 REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA THIS MORNING...BUT
THINK WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...THUS WILL RETAIN THE LOW END
SCA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  41  53  31 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  68  41  52  36 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  76  44  57  36 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  74  48  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  75  48  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  73  51  63  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 121332
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
832 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDAR6Y CONTINUES TO HOVER ACROSS
CENTRAL GA. A BANK OF LOW/MID DECK CLOUDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS SE GA...WITH SOME OF THE CLOUDS NUDGING SOUTH INTO
EXTREME NE FL. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...GIVING THE BOUNDARY A LITTLE PUSH
TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE FRONT ENTERING NE FL THIS EVENING. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS EXTREMELY LIMITED...SO EVEN WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER SE GA THIS AFTN. WILL KEEP POPS VERY LOW
FOR THIS REMOTE POSSIBILITY. WILL MONITOR CLOUD COVER FOR PERHAPS
A NEEDED LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS SE GA...OTHERWISE LOCALLY
BREEZY SW WINDS WILL RESULT IN A NICE WARMUP TODAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 60S CLOSE TO THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SSI INTO THIS AFTN. W/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AT BUOY 41008 REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA THIS MORNING...BUT
THINK WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...THUS WILL RETAIN THE LOW END
SCA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  41  53  31 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  68  41  52  36 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  76  44  57  36 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  74  48  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  75  48  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  73  51  63  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KJAX 121332
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
832 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDAR6Y CONTINUES TO HOVER ACROSS
CENTRAL GA. A BANK OF LOW/MID DECK CLOUDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS SE GA...WITH SOME OF THE CLOUDS NUDGING SOUTH INTO
EXTREME NE FL. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...GIVING THE BOUNDARY A LITTLE PUSH
TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE FRONT ENTERING NE FL THIS EVENING. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS EXTREMELY LIMITED...SO EVEN WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER SE GA THIS AFTN. WILL KEEP POPS VERY LOW
FOR THIS REMOTE POSSIBILITY. WILL MONITOR CLOUD COVER FOR PERHAPS
A NEEDED LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS SE GA...OTHERWISE LOCALLY
BREEZY SW WINDS WILL RESULT IN A NICE WARMUP TODAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 60S CLOSE TO THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SSI INTO THIS AFTN. W/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AT BUOY 41008 REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA THIS MORNING...BUT
THINK WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE...THUS WILL RETAIN THE LOW END
SCA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  41  53  31 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  68  41  52  36 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  76  44  57  36 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  74  48  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  75  48  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  73  51  63  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KJAX 120825
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
325 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH LOW CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE
CLOUD COVER WAS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S...WHILE JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WAS IN THE LOW 40S. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WERE OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S. LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTLINE THIS MORNING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO A
COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH AND EAST OF ALMA. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10
MPH THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WARM SOUTHWEST  WIND WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...EXCEPT UPPER 60S NORTH
OF ALMA DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST...FORCING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY THE MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT AND DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM
THE UPPER PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY PRODUCING STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION PRODUCING BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPS INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
BEGINS TO BRING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE RESULTING IN A FEW LATE AFTERNOON
AND NIGHTTIME COASTAL SHOWERS MAINLY FOR NE FL AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS. MAX TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA AND
COASTAL SE GA. HOWEVER...MUCH MILDER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS WELL
ABOVE FREEZING AND EVEN ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE NE FL COAST.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DIG FROM INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST ON MONDAY INTO THE SE U.S. MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND PHASE
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. MODELS AGREE
ON CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY BUT
TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH THE GFS BEING FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WITH BULK OF PCP MONDAY
NIGHT AND EXITING THE AREA TUES AM AS THE LOW QUICKLY EJECTS NE
AND THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN. APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING
WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
STORMS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. PROVIDING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT WELL ABOVE
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS WERE INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH HEIGHTS 1.5-3KFT TO THE WEST OF KSSI. THIS
WILL MOVE INTO KSSI BEFORE DAYBREAK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT VIS
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10
KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
NORTHEAST SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW SCA
CRITERION AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND INCREASE TO
SCA OFFSHORE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGIONAL
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING SW WINDS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE HIGH
DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR INTO SE GA. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR AIR MASS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH MIN RH`S FALLING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW CRITICAL VALUES AWAY FROM THE COAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  41  53  31 /  20  10   0   0
SSI  68  41  52  36 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  76  44  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  74  48  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  75  48  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  73  51  63  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PETERSON/KENNEDY/





000
FXUS62 KJAX 120138
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
838 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK TO JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...WITH IFR POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AT KSSI. A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDTIONS WILL BE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS KSGJ...WHICH WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH OF BEST MOISTURE...SO PREVAILING VFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  46  70  42  51 /  10  10  10   0
SSI  48  66  42  53 /  10  10  10   0
JAX  47  73  46  57 /  10  10   0   0
SGJ  48  71  48  57 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  45  73  47  61 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  45  73  51  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE





000
FXUS62 KJAX 120138
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
838 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK TO JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...WITH IFR POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AT KSSI. A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDTIONS WILL BE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS KSGJ...WHICH WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH OF BEST MOISTURE...SO PREVAILING VFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  46  70  42  51 /  10  10  10   0
SSI  48  66  42  53 /  10  10  10   0
JAX  47  73  46  57 /  10  10   0   0
SGJ  48  71  48  57 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  45  73  47  61 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  45  73  51  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE




000
FXUS62 KJAX 120138
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
838 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK TO JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...WITH IFR POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AT KSSI. A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDTIONS WILL BE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION IS KSGJ...WHICH WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH OF BEST MOISTURE...SO PREVAILING VFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  46  70  42  51 /  10  10  10   0
SSI  48  66  42  53 /  10  10  10   0
JAX  47  73  46  57 /  10  10   0   0
SGJ  48  71  48  57 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  45  73  47  61 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  45  73  51  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE





000
FXUS62 KJAX 111928
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
227 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING RESIDES
JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO HOVER ACROSS CENTRAL GA WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. WITH THE W/SW WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE MODERATING WITH
MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S THIS AFTN.

A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CLIP SE GA...COMBINING WITH
THE WEAK FRONT TO PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WITH A
PERIOD OF OVERCAST SKIES POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF SE GA LATER TNGT
INTO FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP
PRECIP OUT OF THE FCST. THE CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SW FLOW WILL
RESULT IN MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES TNGT...WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
SOUTH INTO SE GA FRIDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN WITH ALMOST NO DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...EXPECT NO PRECIP...AND WITH THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSE EXITING TO THE NE...EXPECT CLOUDS IN THE MORNING TO
DIMINISH SOME IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY SW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS NE FL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH
WITH NW WINDS MAKING IT FEEL COLDER. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR FREEZING OVER INLAND
AREAS AND INTO THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE COAST. NORTH WINDS WILL STAY
UP OVERNIGHT PRODUCING WINDS CHILLS IN THE 20S. HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES REACHING THE EAST COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING. DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL TIMING EXIST AS THE ECMWF IS
A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS. WILL USE A COMPROMISE WITH RAIN
BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ENDING TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND THEN NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AREA WIDE.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR SSI IN PARTICULAR AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...AND THE HIGH RES ENSEMBLE/SREF SHOW THE
GREATEST PROBABILITY OF LOW CIGS ACROSS SE GA. WILL USE SCT
LOW CLOUDS FOR NE FL SITES...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR SSI
FROM 06-15Z. W/SW WINDS 6-10 KT THIS AFTN WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE TNGT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WITH SPEEDS REACHING SCEC OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
ENTER THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING TO THE SOUTH
ON SATURDAY. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OFFSHORE FRIDAY...CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING SW WINDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE HIGH DISPERSIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LOWER RH`S TO NEAR
CRITICAL VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  46  70  42  51 /  10  10  10   0
SSI  48  66  42  53 /  10  10  10   0
JAX  47  73  46  57 /  10  10   0   0
SGJ  48  71  48  57 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  45  73  47  61 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  45  73  51  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/ZIBURA/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 111928
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
227 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING RESIDES
JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO HOVER ACROSS CENTRAL GA WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. WITH THE W/SW WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE MODERATING WITH
MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S THIS AFTN.

A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CLIP SE GA...COMBINING WITH
THE WEAK FRONT TO PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WITH A
PERIOD OF OVERCAST SKIES POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF SE GA LATER TNGT
INTO FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP
PRECIP OUT OF THE FCST. THE CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SW FLOW WILL
RESULT IN MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES TNGT...WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
SOUTH INTO SE GA FRIDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN WITH ALMOST NO DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...EXPECT NO PRECIP...AND WITH THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSE EXITING TO THE NE...EXPECT CLOUDS IN THE MORNING TO
DIMINISH SOME IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY SW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS NE FL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH
WITH NW WINDS MAKING IT FEEL COLDER. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR FREEZING OVER INLAND
AREAS AND INTO THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE COAST. NORTH WINDS WILL STAY
UP OVERNIGHT PRODUCING WINDS CHILLS IN THE 20S. HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES REACHING THE EAST COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING. DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL TIMING EXIST AS THE ECMWF IS
A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS. WILL USE A COMPROMISE WITH RAIN
BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ENDING TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND THEN NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AREA WIDE.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR SSI IN PARTICULAR AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...AND THE HIGH RES ENSEMBLE/SREF SHOW THE
GREATEST PROBABILITY OF LOW CIGS ACROSS SE GA. WILL USE SCT
LOW CLOUDS FOR NE FL SITES...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR SSI
FROM 06-15Z. W/SW WINDS 6-10 KT THIS AFTN WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE TNGT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WITH SPEEDS REACHING SCEC OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
ENTER THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING TO THE SOUTH
ON SATURDAY. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OFFSHORE FRIDAY...CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING SW WINDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE HIGH DISPERSIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LOWER RH`S TO NEAR
CRITICAL VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  46  70  42  51 /  10  10  10   0
SSI  48  66  42  53 /  10  10  10   0
JAX  47  73  46  57 /  10  10   0   0
SGJ  48  71  48  57 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  45  73  47  61 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  45  73  51  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/ZIBURA/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 111345
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
845 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO WARM UNDER FULL SUNSHINE...AND WILL
EXPIRE THE FREEZE WARNING AT 9 AM. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE...ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S UNDER SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH SW FLOW
SOME STRATUS COULD MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF LATE TNGT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT MVFR CIGS...HAVE USED SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR
NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AND WILL LOWER THE CAUTION HEADLINE
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  48  71  42 /   0  10  10   0
SSI  53  47  66  44 /   0  10  10   0
JAX  63  47  75  47 /   0  10  10   0
SGJ  62  49  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  65  45  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  66  43  73  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KJAX 110851
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
351 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME CENTERED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5
KNOTS HAVE KEPT TEMPS SOMEWHAT IN CHECK AS TEMPS HAVE BEEN
BOUNCING BETWEEN 30 AND 34 DEGREES OVER INLAND AREAS WITH TEMPS
STILL CLOSER TO 40 DEGREES AT THE COAST. STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO
BECOME MOSTLY CALM AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE AND GIVEN THE LOW
DEWPOINTS (LOW TO MID 20S)...THERE REMAINS A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS TO CRASH INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WITH
EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING STILL NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE BEACHES...THUS THE FREEZE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH 9 AM.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO SE GA FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND THIS WILL KEEP OUR
AREA IN THE "WARMER" SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL RISE COME UP QUITE A BIT TODAY AND THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO A MUCH MILDER DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID
60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS. AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE REMAINING CLOSE
TO THE COAST WILL KEEP THE BEACHES A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS
NEAR 60.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SE GA THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE RATHER MODEST
SO WE WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT BUT THERE
COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR TWO. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/...

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF SOUTH CAROLINA ALONG A
STALLED BOUNDARY STRETCHING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE
LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WITH A BREEZY AND WARM WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY
MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
7-16 DEGREES BELOW FRIDAYS HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A LIGHT
FREEZE IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY. EAST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVERS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S DUE ONSHORE FLOW.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE EAST AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. COASTAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE
EVENING AS WINDS VEER SOUTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY AND PHASE WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY...BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9Z THIS
MORNING AND WILL BE REPLACED WITH AN SCEC UNTIL THE MID MORNING
UPDATE. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN VEER AND BECOME ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  48  71  42 /   0  10  10   0
SSI  53  47  66  44 /   0  10  10   0
JAX  63  47  75  47 /   0  10  10   0
SGJ  62  49  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  65  45  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  66  43  73  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COASTAL DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-COLUMBIA-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-INLAND DUVAL-INLAND NASSAU-MARION-PUTNAM-
     ST. JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHULER/KENNEDY/





000
FXUS62 KJAX 110851
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
351 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME CENTERED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5
KNOTS HAVE KEPT TEMPS SOMEWHAT IN CHECK AS TEMPS HAVE BEEN
BOUNCING BETWEEN 30 AND 34 DEGREES OVER INLAND AREAS WITH TEMPS
STILL CLOSER TO 40 DEGREES AT THE COAST. STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO
BECOME MOSTLY CALM AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE AND GIVEN THE LOW
DEWPOINTS (LOW TO MID 20S)...THERE REMAINS A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS TO CRASH INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WITH
EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING STILL NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE BEACHES...THUS THE FREEZE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH 9 AM.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO SE GA FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND THIS WILL KEEP OUR
AREA IN THE "WARMER" SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL RISE COME UP QUITE A BIT TODAY AND THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO A MUCH MILDER DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID
60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS. AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE REMAINING CLOSE
TO THE COAST WILL KEEP THE BEACHES A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS
NEAR 60.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SE GA THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE RATHER MODEST
SO WE WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT BUT THERE
COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR TWO. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/...

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF SOUTH CAROLINA ALONG A
STALLED BOUNDARY STRETCHING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE
LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WITH A BREEZY AND WARM WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY
MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
7-16 DEGREES BELOW FRIDAYS HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A LIGHT
FREEZE IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY. EAST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVERS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S DUE ONSHORE FLOW.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE EAST AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. COASTAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE
EVENING AS WINDS VEER SOUTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY AND PHASE WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY...BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9Z THIS
MORNING AND WILL BE REPLACED WITH AN SCEC UNTIL THE MID MORNING
UPDATE. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN VEER AND BECOME ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  48  71  42 /   0  10  10   0
SSI  53  47  66  44 /   0  10  10   0
JAX  63  47  75  47 /   0  10  10   0
SGJ  62  49  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  65  45  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  66  43  73  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COASTAL DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-COLUMBIA-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-INLAND DUVAL-INLAND NASSAU-MARION-PUTNAM-
     ST. JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHULER/KENNEDY/





000
FXUS62 KJAX 110851
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
351 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME CENTERED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5
KNOTS HAVE KEPT TEMPS SOMEWHAT IN CHECK AS TEMPS HAVE BEEN
BOUNCING BETWEEN 30 AND 34 DEGREES OVER INLAND AREAS WITH TEMPS
STILL CLOSER TO 40 DEGREES AT THE COAST. STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO
BECOME MOSTLY CALM AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE AND GIVEN THE LOW
DEWPOINTS (LOW TO MID 20S)...THERE REMAINS A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS TO CRASH INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND WITH
EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING STILL NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE BEACHES...THUS THE FREEZE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH 9 AM.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO SE GA FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND THIS WILL KEEP OUR
AREA IN THE "WARMER" SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL RISE COME UP QUITE A BIT TODAY AND THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO A MUCH MILDER DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID
60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS. AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE REMAINING CLOSE
TO THE COAST WILL KEEP THE BEACHES A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS
NEAR 60.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SE GA THIS EVENING AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE RATHER MODEST
SO WE WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT BUT THERE
COULD BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR TWO. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/...

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF SOUTH CAROLINA ALONG A
STALLED BOUNDARY STRETCHING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE
LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WITH A BREEZY AND WARM WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY
MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
7-16 DEGREES BELOW FRIDAYS HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A LIGHT
FREEZE IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY. EAST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVERS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S DUE ONSHORE FLOW.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY
AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE EAST AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE. COASTAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE
EVENING AS WINDS VEER SOUTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY AND PHASE WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY...BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9Z THIS
MORNING AND WILL BE REPLACED WITH AN SCEC UNTIL THE MID MORNING
UPDATE. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN VEER AND BECOME ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  48  71  42 /   0  10  10   0
SSI  53  47  66  44 /   0  10  10   0
JAX  63  47  75  47 /   0  10  10   0
SGJ  62  49  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  65  45  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  66  43  73  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COASTAL DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-COLUMBIA-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-INLAND DUVAL-INLAND NASSAU-MARION-PUTNAM-
     ST. JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHULER/KENNEDY/




000
FXUS62 KJAX 110153
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
853 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...FREEZE TONIGHT WITH FROST...

.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES CRASHED QUICKLY THIS EVENING ALREADY INTO
THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SUWANEE RIVER VALLEY DUE TO A VERY DRY
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...CLEAR SKIES AND DECOUPLED WINDS. RECENT LAV
TEMP TRENDS WERE ON TRACK WITH OBSERVATIONS WHICH INDICATE A RAPID
FALL OF TEMPS TO FREEZING INLAND BY MIDNIGHT...THEN TEMPS GENERALLY
HOVER IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 THROUGH SUNRISE WITH A LIGHT WNW
DRAINAGE FLOW. EXPECT FROST FORMATION INLAND WITH AREAS ACROSS NE
FL AND WIDESPREAD ACROSS INLAND SE GA.

NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME TO THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING AND
TRENDS STILL SUPPORT NO HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR SE GA WITH ANTICIPATED
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AT OR NEAR 27 DEG FOR LESS THAN 2
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING WITH A DECREASE IN WINDS
BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS BY
MIDNIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE FL PENINSULA FROM THE GULF.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  28  60  45  68 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  29  53  45  64 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  28  60  45  73 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  32  58  46  72 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  28  63  45  73 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  29  64  45  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COASTAL DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-COLUMBIA-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-INLAND DUVAL-INLAND NASSAU-MARION-PUTNAM-
     ST. JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/NELSON/COMBS





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