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000
FXUS62 KJAX 221843
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
242 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WET AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...

.SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOSES OFF AT 500 MB ACROSS
NE GA AND THEN BEGINS TO PIVOT NE AND WEAKEN ON TUESDAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE TRHU TONIGHT WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS SE GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE AND
ACROSS NE FL TONIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES
TO HAVE MUCH OF SE GA UNDER A MARGINAL THREAT OF WIND AND HAIL
AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
IN FROM THE GULF WILL RIDE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS CNTL FL BRINGING SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP PREVIOUS
LIKELY POPS FOR SE GA AND RAISE POPS TO HIGH END CHANCE ELSEWHERE
FOR THIS EVE. THE STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL HELP KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS GOING MOST AREAS TONIGHT BUT LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO MINIMIZE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
NE FL ON TUESDAY AND STALL OVER CENTRAL FL TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD PRODUCING AN INCREASING NE FLOW. COASTAL SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH NUMEROUS RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED
OVER COASTAL COUNTIES. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS ENHANCING WINDS AND COASTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE POPS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE EAST WHICH WILL MEAN DECREASING POPS NEAR THE COAST BY
LATE WEEK. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES AND POPS WILL BE AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS NORTH OF GNV WILL CONTINUE
DRIFTING ENE AND WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE...WILL PUT VCTS IN AT MOST TERMINALS BEGINNING
AT 23Z-00Z ALTHOUGH AN EARLIER START MAY BE NEEDED IN FL TERMINALS.
THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
MOISTURE POOLING FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN VCTS AT MOST
TERMINALS TONIGHT. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS TEMPO GROUP FOR TS AT SSI
BETWEEN 04Z-06Z.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN WATERS
TONIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT ON TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF
THE WATERS (ST AUGUSTINE NORTH) LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. RISK WILL INCREASE TOWARD MID
WEEK...WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  84  64  79 /  60  20  20  10
SSI  70  80  68  77 /  50  50  50  50
JAX  68  81  68  80 /  40  40  40  50
SGJ  72  81  71  82 /  50  60  60  60
GNV  68  82  67  82 /  50  40  40  40
OCF  69  83  69  86 /  50  60  50  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/MZ/AW












000
FXUS62 KJAX 221843
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
242 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WET AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...

.SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOSES OFF AT 500 MB ACROSS
NE GA AND THEN BEGINS TO PIVOT NE AND WEAKEN ON TUESDAY.
STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE TRHU TONIGHT WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS SE GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE AND
ACROSS NE FL TONIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES
TO HAVE MUCH OF SE GA UNDER A MARGINAL THREAT OF WIND AND HAIL
AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. A DISTURBANCE MOVING
IN FROM THE GULF WILL RIDE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS CNTL FL BRINGING SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP PREVIOUS
LIKELY POPS FOR SE GA AND RAISE POPS TO HIGH END CHANCE ELSEWHERE
FOR THIS EVE. THE STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL HELP KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS GOING MOST AREAS TONIGHT BUT LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO MINIMIZE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
NE FL ON TUESDAY AND STALL OVER CENTRAL FL TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD PRODUCING AN INCREASING NE FLOW. COASTAL SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH NUMEROUS RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED
OVER COASTAL COUNTIES. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS ENHANCING WINDS AND COASTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE POPS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE EAST WHICH WILL MEAN DECREASING POPS NEAR THE COAST BY
LATE WEEK. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES AND POPS WILL BE AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS NORTH OF GNV WILL CONTINUE
DRIFTING ENE AND WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE...WILL PUT VCTS IN AT MOST TERMINALS BEGINNING
AT 23Z-00Z ALTHOUGH AN EARLIER START MAY BE NEEDED IN FL TERMINALS.
THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
MOISTURE POOLING FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN VCTS AT MOST
TERMINALS TONIGHT. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS TEMPO GROUP FOR TS AT SSI
BETWEEN 04Z-06Z.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN WATERS
TONIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT ON TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF
THE WATERS (ST AUGUSTINE NORTH) LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. RISK WILL INCREASE TOWARD MID
WEEK...WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  84  64  79 /  60  20  20  10
SSI  70  80  68  77 /  50  50  50  50
JAX  68  81  68  80 /  40  40  40  50
SGJ  72  81  71  82 /  50  60  60  60
GNV  68  82  67  82 /  50  40  40  40
OCF  69  83  69  86 /  50  60  50  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/MZ/AW













000
FXUS62 KJAX 221347 CCA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
947 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WET AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...

.UPDATE...VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT INTO SE GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ACROSS
NE FL TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE FRONT ESPECIALLY WHEN
IT MOVES ACROSS SE GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE MUCH OF SE GA UNDER A MARGINAL
THREAT OF WIND AND HAIL AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.
A DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE GULF WILL RIDE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTL FL BRINGING SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AT THE
MOMENT ELSEWHERE RESULTS IN NEAR NIL POPS...BUT WILL HAVE POPS IN
PLACE THIS EVE ACROSS NE FL AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MAX TEMPS
REACH THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE COMBINATION
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOISTURE POOLING
FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO AREA WATERS AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF ELEVATED
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. RISK WILL INCREASE TOWARD MID WEEK...WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  66  84  62 /  50  60  10  10
SSI  86  70  82  69 /  30  40  40  40
JAX  90  70  84  68 /  20  20  50  50
SGJ  85  72  82  72 /  20  20  60  60
GNV  89  69  85  66 /  20  20  40  30
OCF  88  70  85  68 /  30  40  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/AW











000
FXUS62 KJAX 221335
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
935 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WET AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...

.UPDATE...VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT INTO SE GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ACROSS
NE FL TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE FRONT ESPECIALLY WHEN
IT MOVES ACROSS SE GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE MUCH OF SE GA UNDER A MARGINAL
THREAT OF WIND AND HAIL AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.
A DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE GULF WILL RIDE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTL FL BRINGING SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AT THE
MOMENT ELSEWHERE RESULTS IN NEAR NIL POPS...BUT WILL POPS IN PLACE
THIS EVE ACROSS NE FL AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MAX TEMPS REACH
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE COMBINATION
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOISTURE POOLING
FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO AREA WATERS AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF ELEVATED
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. RISK WILL INCREASE TOWARD MID WEEK...WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  66  84  62 /  50  60  10  10
SSI  86  70  82  69 /  30  40  40  40
JAX  90  70  84  68 /  20  20  50  50
SGJ  85  72  82  72 /  20  20  60  60
GNV  89  69  85  66 /  20  20  40  30
OCF  88  70  85  68 /  30  40  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/AW









000
FXUS62 KJAX 221335
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
935 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WET AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...

.UPDATE...VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT INTO SE GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ACROSS
NE FL TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE FRONT ESPECIALLY WHEN
IT MOVES ACROSS SE GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE MUCH OF SE GA UNDER A MARGINAL
THREAT OF WIND AND HAIL AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.
A DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE GULF WILL RIDE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTL FL BRINGING SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AT THE
MOMENT ELSEWHERE RESULTS IN NEAR NIL POPS...BUT WILL POPS IN PLACE
THIS EVE ACROSS NE FL AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MAX TEMPS REACH
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE COMBINATION
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOISTURE POOLING
FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO AREA WATERS AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF ELEVATED
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. RISK WILL INCREASE TOWARD MID WEEK...WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  66  84  62 /  50  60  10  10
SSI  86  70  82  69 /  30  40  40  40
JAX  90  70  84  68 /  20  20  50  50
SGJ  85  72  82  72 /  20  20  60  60
GNV  89  69  85  66 /  20  20  40  30
OCF  88  70  85  68 /  30  40  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/AW








000
FXUS62 KJAX 220759
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
355 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WET AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH...
AND A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY PUSHING NORTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WEAK RIDGING NEAR THE
FL/GA LINE WILL HELP KEEP THIS MOISTURE FROM ADVANCING MUCH NORTH
OF KGNV TODAY THOUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST GA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWING IT. THE AREA
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO DESTABILIZE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...SO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SE GA.

THE ENERGY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH ARE EXPECTED TO CONVERGE NEAR THE FL/GA LINE AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...ONSHORE FLOW
WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL HELP
PUSH THE PRECIP BACK OVER LAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY. EXPECT AREA NEAR
FL/GA LINE TO HAVE WARMEST READINGS TODAY...WITH CLOUDS
KEEPING READINGS DOWN A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT OVER INLAND SE GA. HOWEVER...IF THE FRONT SLOWS AT ALL...
READINGS COULD GET INTO LOWER 90S OVER SE GA...WHICH WOULD ALSO
HELP TO MAKE THE AIRMASS MORE UNSTABLE WHEN THE FRONT DOES ARRIVE.

WITH CLOUD COVERAGE AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING...EXPECT TEMPS
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM...

WED-THU...SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS JUST EAST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE BACK ONSHORE ACROSS NE FL &
SE GA. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK INTO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AND BACK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. BREEZY NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE COAST ESPECIALLY FROM JAX NORTHWARD. EXPECT AT LEAST NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON
WED SPREADING BACK INLAND ON THURSDAY AND INTERACTING MORE WITH
DIURNAL HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S FURTHER INLAND. THE ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST WILL COMBINE
WITH THE PEAK HIGH TIDES OF THE NEW MOON AND WATER LEVELS WILL BE
AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AND EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW COASTAL
FLOOD LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...

FRI-MON...DECAYING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ALOFT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AND EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALTHOUGH WITH WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL HEATING TO DRIVE SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY. A BIT MORE INSOLATION WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS BACK INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS
OVER INLAND AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAIN
THREAT FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...

PATCHY LIGHT FOG CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE COMBINATION
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOISTURE
POOLING FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO AREA WATERS AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A PERIOD
OF ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS...LOW RISK TODAY. RISK WILL INCREASE TOWARD MID
WEEK...WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  66  84  62 /  50  60  10  10
SSI  86  70  82  69 /  30  40  40  40
JAX  90  70  84  68 /  20  20  50  50
SGJ  85  72  82  72 /  20  20  60  60
GNV  89  69  85  66 /  20  20  40  30
OCF  88  70  85  68 /  30  40  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/HESS







000
FXUS62 KJAX 220047
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
847 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...DRY SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS ALOFT CONFIRMED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND 00Z SOUNDINGS. SFC DWPTS ARE IN THE LOW-MID 60S. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO MID 60S...
WITH UPR 60S SRN/SE COUNTIES WHERE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPREAD IN
FROM EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED IN
FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS...EXCEPT FOR SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS WHERE PATCHY PRE-DAWN FOG OCCURS. INCLUDED
TEMPO 3-5SM BR AT KVQQ AND KGNV.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND 2-4FT SEAS EXPECTED.
NO CHANGES PLANNED IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  90  64  86 /   0  30  30  10
SSI  70  88  69  83 /   0  30  30  30
JAX  65  90  67  86 /   0  10  10  30
SGJ  69  87  72  85 /   0  10  10  50
GNV  65  90  67  87 /   0  10  10  50
OCF  66  90  68  88 /  10  30  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/SHASHY/GUILLET







000
FXUS62 KJAX 220047
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
847 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...DRY SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS ALOFT CONFIRMED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND 00Z SOUNDINGS. SFC DWPTS ARE IN THE LOW-MID 60S. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO MID 60S...
WITH UPR 60S SRN/SE COUNTIES WHERE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPREAD IN
FROM EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED IN
FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS...EXCEPT FOR SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS WHERE PATCHY PRE-DAWN FOG OCCURS. INCLUDED
TEMPO 3-5SM BR AT KVQQ AND KGNV.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND 2-4FT SEAS EXPECTED.
NO CHANGES PLANNED IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  90  64  86 /   0  30  30  10
SSI  70  88  69  83 /   0  30  30  30
JAX  65  90  67  86 /   0  10  10  30
SGJ  69  87  72  85 /   0  10  10  50
GNV  65  90  67  87 /   0  10  10  50
OCF  66  90  68  88 /  10  30  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/SHASHY/GUILLET








000
FXUS62 KJAX 211819
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
219 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014


.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
TODAY HAS BROUGHT A DRY AIRMASS. A MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT
EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES INTO NE FL. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 60S AGAIN. PATCHY LATE NIGHT GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE OVER NE FL NEAR RIDGE AXIS.

MONDAY...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SE GA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVE. MODELS INDICATE A SWATH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT WHICH WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO MAINLY SE GA AND POSSIBLY  INTO EXTREME NE FL DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND PRODUCE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS DUE TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT.
AN OLD STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTL FL WILL ALSO COMBINE
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH. STORMS WILL FADE DURING THE EVEING AS THE MID LEVEL
LIFT/SUPPORT PUSHES NE OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 90 ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS AND MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROF WASHES OUT ALOFT BUT AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION AND WILL ENHANCE NELY FLOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ACROSS NE
FL. MORE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG
THE COAST AND MID/UPPER 80S INLAND. EXPECT AT LEAST BREEZY NE FLOW
AT 15-20 MPH AND GUSTY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM
JACKSONVILLE NORTHWARD.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
NEW ENGLAND AND COMBINE WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM THE GULF WHICH
WILL PRODUCE NOR`EASTER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH
BREEZY NORTHEAST FLOW AT 15-25 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER 80S WELL INLAND.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AS A COASTAL TROF
DEVELOPS AND STATIONARY RAIN BANDS MAY SET-UP SOMEWHERE ALONG THE
COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FURTHER INLAND.

.LONG TERM...

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WET PERIOD
WILL CONTINUE AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES OUT OF THE E/SE AS THE
COASTAL TROF BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES INLAND. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND EXPECT RAINFALL ACTIVITY THAT WAS FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SHIFT INLAND LATE IN THE WEEK AND
BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE AS HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S ON
THU/FRI INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY
FOG POSSBILE WITH MVFR VSBYS AT GNV AND VQQ 08Z-12Z.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE WEEK PRODUCING A MODERATE ONSHORE. HEADLINES POSSIBLE BY
MIDWEEK AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK BECOMING LOW RISK ON MONDAY AS SEAS
SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  87  65  87 /   0  30  30  10
SSI  70  85  72  83 /   0  30  30  30
JAX  66  88  69  86 /   0  10  10  30
SGJ  69  85  73  85 /   0  10  10  50
GNV  65  86  68  87 /   0  10  10  50
OCF  67  87  69  88 /  10  30  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/PETERSON/WALKER










000
FXUS62 KJAX 211819
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
219 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014


.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
TODAY HAS BROUGHT A DRY AIRMASS. A MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT
EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES INTO NE FL. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 60S AGAIN. PATCHY LATE NIGHT GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE OVER NE FL NEAR RIDGE AXIS.

MONDAY...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SE GA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVE. MODELS INDICATE A SWATH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT WHICH WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO MAINLY SE GA AND POSSIBLY  INTO EXTREME NE FL DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND PRODUCE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS DUE TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT.
AN OLD STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTL FL WILL ALSO COMBINE
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH. STORMS WILL FADE DURING THE EVEING AS THE MID LEVEL
LIFT/SUPPORT PUSHES NE OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 90 ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS AND MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROF WASHES OUT ALOFT BUT AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION AND WILL ENHANCE NELY FLOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ACROSS NE
FL. MORE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG
THE COAST AND MID/UPPER 80S INLAND. EXPECT AT LEAST BREEZY NE FLOW
AT 15-20 MPH AND GUSTY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM
JACKSONVILLE NORTHWARD.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
NEW ENGLAND AND COMBINE WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM THE GULF WHICH
WILL PRODUCE NOR`EASTER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH
BREEZY NORTHEAST FLOW AT 15-25 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER 80S WELL INLAND.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AS A COASTAL TROF
DEVELOPS AND STATIONARY RAIN BANDS MAY SET-UP SOMEWHERE ALONG THE
COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FURTHER INLAND.

.LONG TERM...

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WET PERIOD
WILL CONTINUE AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES OUT OF THE E/SE AS THE
COASTAL TROF BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES INLAND. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND EXPECT RAINFALL ACTIVITY THAT WAS FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SHIFT INLAND LATE IN THE WEEK AND
BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE AS HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S ON
THU/FRI INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY
FOG POSSBILE WITH MVFR VSBYS AT GNV AND VQQ 08Z-12Z.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE WEEK PRODUCING A MODERATE ONSHORE. HEADLINES POSSIBLE BY
MIDWEEK AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK BECOMING LOW RISK ON MONDAY AS SEAS
SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  87  65  87 /   0  30  30  10
SSI  70  85  72  83 /   0  30  30  30
JAX  66  88  69  86 /   0  10  10  30
SGJ  69  85  73  85 /   0  10  10  50
GNV  65  86  68  87 /   0  10  10  50
OCF  67  87  69  88 /  10  30  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/PETERSON/WALKER











000
FXUS62 KJAX 211247
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
847 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014


.UPDATE...DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST IN WAKE OF COASTAL LOW MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST. SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING AS LOW PRESSURE OFF MID
ATLANTIC COAST MOVES NE WEAKENING THE GRADIENT OVER THE FL/GA
WATERS. WILL DROP SCEC AS BOUYS NOW REPORT 4 FOOT SEAS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY BECOMING LOW RISK ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  66  87  65 /   0   0  30  30
SSI  84  71  85  72 /   0   0  20  20
JAX  86  67  88  69 /   0  10  20  20
SGJ  84  70  85  73 /   0  10  20  20
GNV  86  66  86  68 /   0  10  30  30
OCF  87  68  87  69 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA//WALKER








000
FXUS62 KJAX 211247
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
847 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014


.UPDATE...DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST IN WAKE OF COASTAL LOW MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST. SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING AS LOW PRESSURE OFF MID
ATLANTIC COAST MOVES NE WEAKENING THE GRADIENT OVER THE FL/GA
WATERS. WILL DROP SCEC AS BOUYS NOW REPORT 4 FOOT SEAS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY BECOMING LOW RISK ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  66  87  65 /   0   0  30  30
SSI  84  71  85  72 /   0   0  20  20
JAX  86  67  88  69 /   0  10  20  20
SGJ  84  70  85  73 /   0  10  20  20
GNV  86  66  86  68 /   0  10  30  30
OCF  87  68  87  69 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA//WALKER







000
FXUS62 KJAX 210747
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
345 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/...

LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY...ASSOCIATED
WITH A LINGERING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THE
REGION WILL BE PINCHED BETWEEN THIS TROUGH TO THE SOUTH...AND AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SE GA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AN UPPER LOW PIVOTING
IN BEHIND IT. HAVE TRIMMED MAX TEMPS BACK ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUD AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

.SHORT TERM...

TUE-WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL REACH THE
REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COAST ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST FLOW AT 15-25 MPH. MAX TEMPS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER 80S
WELL INLAND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ALONG THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS COASTAL TROF DEVELOPS AND STATIONARY RAIN
BAND MAY SET-UP ALONG THE NE FL/SE GA COAST SOMEWHERE BY THE TUE
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS FOR THE
WEEK IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FURTHER INLAND.

.LONG TERM...

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WET PERIOD
WILL CONTINUE AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES OUT OF THE E/SE AS THE
COASTAL TROF BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES INLAND. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND EXPECT RAINFALL ACTIVITY THAT WAS FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SHIFT INLAND LATE IN THE WEEK AND
BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE AS HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S ON
THU/FRI INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LIGHT FOG THIS
MORNING...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS 06Z TAF
PERIOD...AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK RIDGING WILL BE OVER AREA WATERS
TODAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AREA WATERS
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION TOWARD MID WEEK...
STARTING A PERIOD OF ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW.

RIP CURRENTS: WILL CONTINUE MODERATE RISK TODAY WITH WIND COMING
DOWN...BUT WAVES STILL SOMEWHAT ELEVATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  66  87  65 /   0   0  30  30
SSI  83  71  85  72 /   0   0  20  20
JAX  85  67  88  69 /   0  10  20  20
SGJ  83  70  85  73 /   0  10  20  20
GNV  85  66  86  68 /   0  10  30  30
OCF  86  68  87  69 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/HESS






000
FXUS62 KJAX 210747
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
345 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/...

LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY...ASSOCIATED
WITH A LINGERING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THE
REGION WILL BE PINCHED BETWEEN THIS TROUGH TO THE SOUTH...AND AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SE GA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AN UPPER LOW PIVOTING
IN BEHIND IT. HAVE TRIMMED MAX TEMPS BACK ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
CLOUD AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

.SHORT TERM...

TUE-WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL REACH THE
REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COAST ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST FLOW AT 15-25 MPH. MAX TEMPS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER 80S
WELL INLAND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ALONG THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS COASTAL TROF DEVELOPS AND STATIONARY RAIN
BAND MAY SET-UP ALONG THE NE FL/SE GA COAST SOMEWHERE BY THE TUE
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS FOR THE
WEEK IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY AND IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FURTHER INLAND.

.LONG TERM...

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WET PERIOD
WILL CONTINUE AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES OUT OF THE E/SE AS THE
COASTAL TROF BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES INLAND. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND EXPECT RAINFALL ACTIVITY THAT WAS FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SHIFT INLAND LATE IN THE WEEK AND
BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE AS HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S ON
THU/FRI INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LIGHT FOG THIS
MORNING...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS 06Z TAF
PERIOD...AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK RIDGING WILL BE OVER AREA WATERS
TODAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AREA WATERS
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION TOWARD MID WEEK...
STARTING A PERIOD OF ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW.

RIP CURRENTS: WILL CONTINUE MODERATE RISK TODAY WITH WIND COMING
DOWN...BUT WAVES STILL SOMEWHAT ELEVATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  66  87  65 /   0   0  30  30
SSI  83  71  85  72 /   0   0  20  20
JAX  85  67  88  69 /   0  10  20  20
SGJ  83  70  85  73 /   0  10  20  20
GNV  85  66  86  68 /   0  10  30  30
OCF  86  68  87  69 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/HESS







000
FXUS62 KJAX 210124
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
924 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF SE GA IS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY
TOWARD THE NE...SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. 00Z
SOUNDINGS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DRIER SUBSIDENT AIR
ALOFT SPREADING ACROSS CWA...CAUSING PRECIP TO DIMINISH EXCEPT
ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE. HAVE UPDATED HOURLY POP
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. SHOULD SEE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WELL
INLAND...MOSTLY CLOUDY COAST AND OFFSHORE...MAY SEE COASTAL
SHOWERS MOVE JUST INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING GENERALLY ST.
AUGUSTINE SOUTHWARD. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP SOME ALONG
COAST...BUT CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO 60S
TONIGHT INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS NEAR COAST SHOULD DIMINISH NEXT FEW
HOURS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS AT THIS POINT WITH 20-25 KT
N WINDS AND 5-7FT SEAS. WILL EXTEND CURRENT SCA UNTIL 4AM...ALTHO
SCA CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT MORE LIKELY FOR OFFSHORE COMPONENT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  89  64  91 /  10  10   0  30
SSI  68  85  71  88 /  30  10   0  20
JAX  66  88  67  90 /  20  10  10  10
SGJ  69  86  71  88 /  40  10  10  20
GNV  65  87  66  89 /  10  10  10  20
OCF  66  87  68  89 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
     FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

WOLF/SHASHY/GUILLET







000
FXUS62 KJAX 201811
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
210 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014


...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS NOW WILL MOVE NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVING OFFSHORE BY 12Z SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BANDS NEAR THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE NORTH DECREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATER
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY
MORNING.

SUNDAY...DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. PW`S PROGGED TO FALL BELOW AN INCH MOST AREAS...
EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTH. WILL DROP POPS MOST AREAS...EXCEPT KEEP
LOW POPS GOING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
INTERACT WITH WAKE TROUGH. WITH MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPS
WILL REACH NEAR 90 INLAND AND MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS  SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S INLAND AND LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

MONDAY...NEXT MID LEVEL TROF/ENERGY/LIFT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SERN
U.S. AND ENHANCE THE LIFT ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH. THIS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MOVES
INTO SE GA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY PRODUCE A BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 90 ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS AND MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROF WASHES OUT ALOFT BUT AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION AND WILL ENHANCE NELY FLOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ACROSS NE
FL. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE AND PCPN WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID/UPPER 80S INLAND. EXPECT AT
LEAST BREEZY NE FLOW AT 15-20 MPH AND GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM JACKSONVILLE NORTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...WED-SAT...ONSHORE NELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED DOWN THE EAST COAST
NORTH OF THE JAX AREA. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. THIS COMBINED WITH THE NEW MOON AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL COINCIDE WITH TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AT SOME LOCATIONS. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO LEVELS IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S INLAND
AND NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL AFFECT TAF SITES WITH TEMPO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NE WINDS UNTIL AREA 22Z. HAVE VCSH
BETWEEN 22Z-06Z AS SHOWER ACTVITY DECREASES INLAND...AND THEN NEAR
THE EAST COAST LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...SHORT-LIVED ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE NE OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS AND
SEAS DECREASING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO THE NORTH INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS FOR MIDWEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  89  64  91 /  10  10   0  30
SSI  69  85  71  88 /  50  10   0  20
JAX  67  88  67  90 /  50  10  10  10
SGJ  69  86  71  88 /  50  10  10  20
GNV  66  87  66  89 /  30  10  10  20
OCF  67  87  68  89 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/PETERSON/WALKER











000
FXUS62 KJAX 201811
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
210 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014


...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS NOW WILL MOVE NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVING OFFSHORE BY 12Z SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BANDS NEAR THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE NORTH DECREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATER
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY
MORNING.

SUNDAY...DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. PW`S PROGGED TO FALL BELOW AN INCH MOST AREAS...
EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTH. WILL DROP POPS MOST AREAS...EXCEPT KEEP
LOW POPS GOING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
INTERACT WITH WAKE TROUGH. WITH MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPS
WILL REACH NEAR 90 INLAND AND MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS  SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S INLAND AND LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST.

MONDAY...NEXT MID LEVEL TROF/ENERGY/LIFT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SERN
U.S. AND ENHANCE THE LIFT ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH. THIS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MOVES
INTO SE GA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY PRODUCE A BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 90 ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS AND MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROF WASHES OUT ALOFT BUT AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION AND WILL ENHANCE NELY FLOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ACROSS NE
FL. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE AND PCPN WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID/UPPER 80S INLAND. EXPECT AT
LEAST BREEZY NE FLOW AT 15-20 MPH AND GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM JACKSONVILLE NORTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...WED-SAT...ONSHORE NELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED DOWN THE EAST COAST
NORTH OF THE JAX AREA. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. THIS COMBINED WITH THE NEW MOON AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL COINCIDE WITH TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AT SOME LOCATIONS. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO LEVELS IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S INLAND
AND NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL AFFECT TAF SITES WITH TEMPO
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NE WINDS UNTIL AREA 22Z. HAVE VCSH
BETWEEN 22Z-06Z AS SHOWER ACTVITY DECREASES INLAND...AND THEN NEAR
THE EAST COAST LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...SHORT-LIVED ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE NE OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS AND
SEAS DECREASING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO THE NORTH INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS FOR MIDWEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  89  64  91 /  10  10   0  30
SSI  69  85  71  88 /  50  10   0  20
JAX  67  88  67  90 /  50  10  10  10
SGJ  69  86  71  88 /  50  10  10  20
GNV  66  87  66  89 /  30  10  10  20
OCF  67  87  68  89 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/PETERSON/WALKER










000
FXUS62 KJAX 201343
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
943 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014


.UPDATE...UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW JUST WEST OF THE AREA INTO THE
EASTERN GULF WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST WILL
MOVE TO THE NE TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING. SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE NE WHICH WILL BACK THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH
WEAKENING THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
AT TAF SITES TODAY. ISOLD TSRA MAINLY INLAND MAY AFFECT GNV THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE..BRIEF NE SURGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES NE AND INTENSIFIES OFF THE SC COAST TONIGHT. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS START
TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THIS WEEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  67  86  64 /  50  40  10   0
SSI  80  69  83  72 /  80  60  10  10
JAX  80  68  85  68 /  70  50  20  20
SGJ  81  70  82  71 /  70  60  20  20
GNV  82  66  84  67 /  50  50  30  30
OCF  82  68  85  68 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ZIBURA//WALKER








000
FXUS62 KJAX 201343
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
943 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014


.UPDATE...UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW JUST WEST OF THE AREA INTO THE
EASTERN GULF WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST WILL
MOVE TO THE NE TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING. SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE NE WHICH WILL BACK THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH
WEAKENING THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
AT TAF SITES TODAY. ISOLD TSRA MAINLY INLAND MAY AFFECT GNV THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE..BRIEF NE SURGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES NE AND INTENSIFIES OFF THE SC COAST TONIGHT. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS/SEAS START
TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THIS WEEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  67  86  64 /  50  40  10   0
SSI  80  69  83  72 /  80  60  10  10
JAX  80  68  85  68 /  70  50  20  20
SGJ  81  70  82  71 /  70  60  20  20
GNV  82  66  84  67 /  50  50  30  30
OCF  82  68  85  68 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ZIBURA//WALKER









000
FXUS62 KJAX 200956
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
555 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND AGAIN
NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF REGION TODAY...WITH A LOW
DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...WITH CONVERGENT
BANDS OF RAIN MOVING ASHORE. MOST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO
SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING...BUT A FEW STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW WRAPS UP AND MOVES NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY OVER LAND THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE
EXITING LOW INTO SUNDAY...WHICH COULD HELP FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTION
THERE.

CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT TODAY...SO
EXPECTING READINGS TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM...

MONDAY...NEXT MID LEVEL TROF/ENERGY/LIFT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SERN
U.S. AND ENHANCE THE LIFT ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD
STORMS ACROSS NE FL WITH ONLY ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS SE GA. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S ACROSS NE FL WHERE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED...AND AROUND 90 DEGREES FROM THE FL/GA BORDER
NORTHWARD INTO SE GA.

TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROF WASHES OUT ALOFT BUT AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION AND WILL ENHANCE NELY FLOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ACROSS NE
FL. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE AND PCPN WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID/UPPER 80S INLAND. EXPECT AT
LEAST BREEZY NE FLOW AT 15-20 MPH AND GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM JACKSONVILLE NORTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...

WED-SAT...ONSHORE NELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED DOWN THE EAST COAST NORTH OF
THE JAX AREA. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH BEST
COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. THIS COMBINED WITH THE NEW MOON AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDAL
LEVELS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL COINCIDE WITH TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AT SOME LOCATIONS. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO LEVELS IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S INLAND
AND NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
EASTERN FL COAST. THIS WILL FLOW WILL RESULT IN BANDS OF SHOWERS
MOVING ASHORE. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF WIND GUSTS.
AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS WILL PRODUCE IFR AND LOWER CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS SUBSIDING AND
CLOUDS DISSIPATING.

&&

.MARINE...

A FAIRLY BRIEF NORTHEAST SURGE IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AREA WATERS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FL WATERS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A PERIOD OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW
TRACKS AWAY THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS/WAVES SUBSIDE FOR
LATER TONIGHT.

A FAIRLY BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
THEN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

A PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TOWARD MIDWEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ELEVATED TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1/2 TO 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL
REMAIN BELOW ANY COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  67  86  64 /  50  40  10   0
SSI  80  69  83  72 /  70  60  10  10
JAX  80  68  85  68 /  70  50  20  20
SGJ  81  70  82  71 /  70  60  20  20
GNV  82  66  84  67 /  50  50  30  30
OCF  82  68  85  68 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/HESS










000
FXUS62 KJAX 200956
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
555 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND AGAIN
NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF REGION TODAY...WITH A LOW
DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...WITH CONVERGENT
BANDS OF RAIN MOVING ASHORE. MOST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO
SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING...BUT A FEW STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW WRAPS UP AND MOVES NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY OVER LAND THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE
EXITING LOW INTO SUNDAY...WHICH COULD HELP FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTION
THERE.

CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT TODAY...SO
EXPECTING READINGS TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM...

MONDAY...NEXT MID LEVEL TROF/ENERGY/LIFT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SERN
U.S. AND ENHANCE THE LIFT ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD
STORMS ACROSS NE FL WITH ONLY ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS SE GA. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S ACROSS NE FL WHERE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED...AND AROUND 90 DEGREES FROM THE FL/GA BORDER
NORTHWARD INTO SE GA.

TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROF WASHES OUT ALOFT BUT AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION AND WILL ENHANCE NELY FLOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ACROSS NE
FL. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE AND PCPN WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID/UPPER 80S INLAND. EXPECT AT
LEAST BREEZY NE FLOW AT 15-20 MPH AND GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM JACKSONVILLE NORTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...

WED-SAT...ONSHORE NELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED DOWN THE EAST COAST NORTH OF
THE JAX AREA. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH BEST
COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. THIS COMBINED WITH THE NEW MOON AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDAL
LEVELS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL COINCIDE WITH TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AT SOME LOCATIONS. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO LEVELS IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S INLAND
AND NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
EASTERN FL COAST. THIS WILL FLOW WILL RESULT IN BANDS OF SHOWERS
MOVING ASHORE. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF WIND GUSTS.
AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS WILL PRODUCE IFR AND LOWER CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS SUBSIDING AND
CLOUDS DISSIPATING.

&&

.MARINE...

A FAIRLY BRIEF NORTHEAST SURGE IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AREA WATERS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FL WATERS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A PERIOD OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW
TRACKS AWAY THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS/WAVES SUBSIDE FOR
LATER TONIGHT.

A FAIRLY BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
THEN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

A PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TOWARD MIDWEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ELEVATED TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1/2 TO 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL
REMAIN BELOW ANY COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  67  86  64 /  50  40  10   0
SSI  80  69  83  72 /  70  60  10  10
JAX  80  68  85  68 /  70  50  20  20
SGJ  81  70  82  71 /  70  60  20  20
GNV  82  66  84  67 /  50  50  30  30
OCF  82  68  85  68 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/HESS









000
FXUS62 KJAX 200759
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
355 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND AGAIN
NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF REGION TODAY...WITH A LOW
DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...WITH CONVERGENT
BANDS OF RAIN MOVING ASHORE. MOST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO
SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING...BUT A FEW STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW WRAPS UP AND MOVES NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY OVER LAND THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE
EXITING LOW INTO SUNDAY...WHICH COULD HELP FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTION
THERE.

CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT TODAY...SO
EXPECTING READINGS TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM...

MONDAY...NEXT MID LEVEL TROF/ENERGY/LIFT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SERN
U.S. AND ENHANCE THE LIFT ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD
STORMS ACROSS NE FL WITH ONLY ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS SE GA. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S ACROSS NE FL WHERE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED...AND AROUND 90 DEGREES FROM THE FL/GA BORDER
NORTHWARD INTO SE GA.

TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROF WASHES OUT ALOFT BUT AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION AND WILL ENHANCE NELY FLOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ACROSS NE
FL. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE AND PCPN WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID/UPPER 80S INLAND. EXPECT AT
LEAST BREEZY NE FLOW AT 15-20 MPH AND GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM JACKSONVILLE NORTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...

WED-SAT...ONSHORE NELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED DOWN THE EAST COAST NORTH OF
THE JAX AREA. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH BEST
COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. THIS COMBINED WITH THE NEW MOON AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDAL
LEVELS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL COINCIDE WITH TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AT SOME LOCATIONS. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO LEVELS IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S INLAND
AND NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
EASTERN FL COAST. THIS WILL FLOW WILL RESULT IN BANDS OF SHOWERS
MOVING ASHORE. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF WIND GUSTS.
IN GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. AS THE LOW PULLS TO
THE NORTHEAST DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS SUBSIDING AND CLOUDS DISSIPATING.

&&

.MARINE...

A FAIRLY BRIEF NORTHEAST SURGE IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AREA WATERS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FL WATERS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A PERIOD OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW
TRACKS AWAY THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS/WAVES SUBSIDE FOR
LATER TONIGHT.

A FAIRLY BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
THEN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

A PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TOWARD MIDWEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ELEVATED TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1/2 TO 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL
REMAIN BELOW ANY COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  67  86  64 /  50  40  10   0
SSI  80  69  83  72 /  70  60  10  10
JAX  80  68  85  68 /  70  50  20  20
SGJ  81  70  82  71 /  70  60  20  20
GNV  82  66  84  67 /  50  50  30  30
OCF  82  68  85  68 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/HESS







000
FXUS62 KJAX 200759
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
355 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND AGAIN
NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF REGION TODAY...WITH A LOW
DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...WITH CONVERGENT
BANDS OF RAIN MOVING ASHORE. MOST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO
SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING...BUT A FEW STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW WRAPS UP AND MOVES NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY OVER LAND THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE
EXITING LOW INTO SUNDAY...WHICH COULD HELP FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTION
THERE.

CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT TODAY...SO
EXPECTING READINGS TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM...

MONDAY...NEXT MID LEVEL TROF/ENERGY/LIFT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SERN
U.S. AND ENHANCE THE LIFT ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD
STORMS ACROSS NE FL WITH ONLY ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS SE GA. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S ACROSS NE FL WHERE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED...AND AROUND 90 DEGREES FROM THE FL/GA BORDER
NORTHWARD INTO SE GA.

TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROF WASHES OUT ALOFT BUT AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION AND WILL ENHANCE NELY FLOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ACROSS NE
FL. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE AND PCPN WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID/UPPER 80S INLAND. EXPECT AT
LEAST BREEZY NE FLOW AT 15-20 MPH AND GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM JACKSONVILLE NORTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...

WED-SAT...ONSHORE NELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED DOWN THE EAST COAST NORTH OF
THE JAX AREA. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH BEST
COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. THIS COMBINED WITH THE NEW MOON AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDAL
LEVELS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL COINCIDE WITH TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AT SOME LOCATIONS. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO LEVELS IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S INLAND
AND NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
EASTERN FL COAST. THIS WILL FLOW WILL RESULT IN BANDS OF SHOWERS
MOVING ASHORE. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF WIND GUSTS.
IN GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. AS THE LOW PULLS TO
THE NORTHEAST DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS SUBSIDING AND CLOUDS DISSIPATING.

&&

.MARINE...

A FAIRLY BRIEF NORTHEAST SURGE IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AREA WATERS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FL WATERS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A PERIOD OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW
TRACKS AWAY THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS/WAVES SUBSIDE FOR
LATER TONIGHT.

A FAIRLY BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
THEN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

A PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TOWARD MIDWEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ELEVATED TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1/2 TO 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL
REMAIN BELOW ANY COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  67  86  64 /  50  40  10   0
SSI  80  69  83  72 /  70  60  10  10
JAX  80  68  85  68 /  70  50  20  20
SGJ  81  70  82  71 /  70  60  20  20
GNV  82  66  84  67 /  50  50  30  30
OCF  82  68  85  68 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/HESS






000
FXUS62 KJAX 200154
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
954 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...UNSETTLED WET PATTERN WITH COOLER TEMPS THROUGH SAT...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SAT...

.UPDATE...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...SFC DATA SHOWS A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED W TO E ACROSS N CENTRAL FL
WITH A STRONG HIGH PRES CENTER OFF OF NEW ENGLAND AROUND 1031
MB..PRODUCING ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST. FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWAT OF 1.95 INCHES WITH ENE FLOW
UP THROUGH 700 MB. A SFC TROUGH IS NOTED OFF THE NE FL AND SE GA
COASTS ORIENTED N TO S...WITH SIGNS OF A BROAD SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OFF OF CAPE CANAVERAL.

AN WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CAROLINAS SWWD TO
THE E CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT SEWD THROUGH
SAT AND HELP DEEPEN THE SFC LOW OFF THE FL E COAST WHILE TRACKING
NE OR ENE. MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE...BUT REGARDLESS...ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. HAVE LOW END
CHANCE POPS INLAND THIS EVENING...DROPPING TO 20% OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OVER THE ERN ZONES/COASTAL COUNTIES/SRN MOST ZONES...WE
HAVE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS DUE TO QUITE IMPRESSIVE LARGE
SCALE LIFT ASSOCD WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN IMPACT AT THIS TIME...MOST
LIKELY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND WILL INCLUDE IN WEATHER
GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE FROM TONIGHT INTO SAT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
MILD IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COAST...TO UPPER 60S INLAND UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVERGENT BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP VCSH GOING AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT
AT GNV. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BY LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE
MVFR AT GNV AND SSI BY 09Z. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS AND VCSH
AT MOST TERMINALS...EXCEPT GNV...DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST AND MOVES
NE.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. WIND ARE ENE AROUND 15-20 KT
AT 41008 AND MODELS SUGGEST WINDS MORE OR LESS STAYING IN THIS RANGE
INTO SAT WITH POSSIBLE SHORT LIVED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 KT. A
NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO WILL
NOT ISSUE AND KEEP THE SCEC HEADLINE FOR ST AUGUSTINE TO ALTAMAHA
SOUND. SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT BY LATE TONIGHT AND SAT FOR THIS AREA
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS/SEAS SRN MOST WATERS...BUT OVERALL POOR
SMALL BOATING CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY AFTN.

RIP CURRENTS: ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THRU SATURDAY WITH AT LEAST MODERATE RISK EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  83  66  86 /  30  50  40  10
SSI  72  80  71  82 /  70  70  70  30
JAX  69  83  68  84 /  60  70  60  20
SGJ  72  81  71  81 /  50  70  60  40
GNV  68  84  66  85 /  40  50  50  40
OCF  68  84  67  86 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHASHY/PETERSON/GUILLET










000
FXUS62 KJAX 200154
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
954 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...UNSETTLED WET PATTERN WITH COOLER TEMPS THROUGH SAT...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SAT...

.UPDATE...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...SFC DATA SHOWS A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED W TO E ACROSS N CENTRAL FL
WITH A STRONG HIGH PRES CENTER OFF OF NEW ENGLAND AROUND 1031
MB..PRODUCING ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST. FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWAT OF 1.95 INCHES WITH ENE FLOW
UP THROUGH 700 MB. A SFC TROUGH IS NOTED OFF THE NE FL AND SE GA
COASTS ORIENTED N TO S...WITH SIGNS OF A BROAD SFC LOW DEVELOPING
OFF OF CAPE CANAVERAL.

AN WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CAROLINAS SWWD TO
THE E CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT SEWD THROUGH
SAT AND HELP DEEPEN THE SFC LOW OFF THE FL E COAST WHILE TRACKING
NE OR ENE. MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE...BUT REGARDLESS...ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. HAVE LOW END
CHANCE POPS INLAND THIS EVENING...DROPPING TO 20% OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OVER THE ERN ZONES/COASTAL COUNTIES/SRN MOST ZONES...WE
HAVE HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS DUE TO QUITE IMPRESSIVE LARGE
SCALE LIFT ASSOCD WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN IMPACT AT THIS TIME...MOST
LIKELY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND WILL INCLUDE IN WEATHER
GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE FROM TONIGHT INTO SAT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
MILD IN THE LOW TO MID 70S COAST...TO UPPER 60S INLAND UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVERGENT BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE COAST AND WILL KEEP VCSH GOING AT ALL TERMINALS...EXCEPT
AT GNV. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BY LATER TONIGHT AND HAVE
MVFR AT GNV AND SSI BY 09Z. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS AND VCSH
AT MOST TERMINALS...EXCEPT GNV...DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST AND MOVES
NE.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. WIND ARE ENE AROUND 15-20 KT
AT 41008 AND MODELS SUGGEST WINDS MORE OR LESS STAYING IN THIS RANGE
INTO SAT WITH POSSIBLE SHORT LIVED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 KT. A
NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO WILL
NOT ISSUE AND KEEP THE SCEC HEADLINE FOR ST AUGUSTINE TO ALTAMAHA
SOUND. SEAS UP TO 4-6 FT BY LATE TONIGHT AND SAT FOR THIS AREA
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS/SEAS SRN MOST WATERS...BUT OVERALL POOR
SMALL BOATING CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY AFTN.

RIP CURRENTS: ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THRU SATURDAY WITH AT LEAST MODERATE RISK EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  83  66  86 /  30  50  40  10
SSI  72  80  71  82 /  70  70  70  30
JAX  69  83  68  84 /  60  70  60  20
SGJ  72  81  71  81 /  50  70  60  40
GNV  68  84  66  85 /  40  50  50  40
OCF  68  84  67  86 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHASHY/PETERSON/GUILLET











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