Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KJAX 020111
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
911 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...

THE REMAINING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD
THIS EVENING...AND DISSIPATE AROUND MIDNIGHT. ANY FOG
OVERNIGHT...SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL THIS EVENING. OTHWERWISE...CLEARING SKIES WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S IS THE PREVAILING FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...

REMAINING EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF AREA
TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
A FEW PATCHES OF FOG ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KVQQ/KGNV. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
INLAND.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  95  74  94 /  50  50  50  30
SSI  77  87  76  88 /  10  20  10  20
JAX  74  92  74  92 /  10  30  20  20
SGJ  75  88  74  89 /  10  20  10  20
GNV  72  91  71  92 /  60  40  40  30
OCF  72  92  72  92 /  60  50  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE








000
FXUS62 KJAX 011738
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
138 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANTICIPATING INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD...
AND AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES WELL INLAND...MEETING WITH
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IN OUR WRN FL COUNTIES TOWARD 00Z.
ANTICIPATE COVERAGE REACHING A MAXIMUM ALONG I-75 CORRIDOR
AROUND 23Z...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING THEREAFTER. ACTIVITY
COULD LINGER IN THE 02-04Z PERIOD IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S...SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING RETROGRADES TO THE WEST TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DROPPING TO THE SE CONUS. A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WITH CONTINUE...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS SE GA CLOSER TO THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND
MID LEVEL IMPULSES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE. WILL USE MID/HIGH END
CHANCE POPS EACH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WITH LITTLE/NO
PRECIP LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL PREVAIL...WITH NEAR NORMAL
LOW TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY AGREE ON WEAK TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SE
LATE WEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS FEATURE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ABOVE NORMAL
POPS LATE WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE FL WITH HIGH END CHANCE
POPS. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS ON THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SO WILL MAKE FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST...WITH A DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN RETURNING YIELDING NEAR NORMAL POPS.
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
INDICATED TEMPO FOR TSRA 21-00Z KGNV TAF...VCTS ELSEWHERE. EXCEPT
AROUND SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSRA WHERE LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...VFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE WINDS UNDER 15 KT WILL PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
SOME INCREASE LATE WEEK AS A WEAK WAVE APPROACHES THE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY SIDESHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  95  74  94 /  50  50  50  30
SSI  77  87  76  88 /  10  20  10  20
JAX  74  92  74  92 /  10  30  20  20
SGJ  75  88  74  89 /  10  20  10  20
GNV  72  91  71  92 /  50  40  40  30
OCF  72  92  72  92 /  50  50  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/WOLF/GUILLET








000
FXUS62 KJAX 011738
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
138 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANTICIPATING INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD...
AND AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES WELL INLAND...MEETING WITH
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IN OUR WRN FL COUNTIES TOWARD 00Z.
ANTICIPATE COVERAGE REACHING A MAXIMUM ALONG I-75 CORRIDOR
AROUND 23Z...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING THEREAFTER. ACTIVITY
COULD LINGER IN THE 02-04Z PERIOD IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S...SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING RETROGRADES TO THE WEST TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DROPPING TO THE SE CONUS. A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WITH CONTINUE...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS SE GA CLOSER TO THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND
MID LEVEL IMPULSES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE. WILL USE MID/HIGH END
CHANCE POPS EACH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WITH LITTLE/NO
PRECIP LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL PREVAIL...WITH NEAR NORMAL
LOW TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY AGREE ON WEAK TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SE
LATE WEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS FEATURE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ABOVE NORMAL
POPS LATE WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE FL WITH HIGH END CHANCE
POPS. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS ON THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SO WILL MAKE FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST...WITH A DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN RETURNING YIELDING NEAR NORMAL POPS.
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
INDICATED TEMPO FOR TSRA 21-00Z KGNV TAF...VCTS ELSEWHERE. EXCEPT
AROUND SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSRA WHERE LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...VFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE WINDS UNDER 15 KT WILL PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
SOME INCREASE LATE WEEK AS A WEAK WAVE APPROACHES THE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY SIDESHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  95  74  94 /  50  50  50  30
SSI  77  87  76  88 /  10  20  10  20
JAX  74  92  74  92 /  10  30  20  20
SGJ  75  88  74  89 /  10  20  10  20
GNV  72  91  71  92 /  50  40  40  30
OCF  72  92  72  92 /  50  50  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/WOLF/GUILLET







000
FXUS62 KJAX 011319
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
919 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME LABOR DAY PATTERN. 12Z SOUNDINGS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR WITH
LOW-LEVEL WEAK SW FLOW JAX NORTHWARD...WEAK SE FLOW S OF JAX. RIDGE
ALOFT OVER SRN GA WITH WEAK NE FLOW OVER FORECAST AREA. 12Z SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ABOVE 850MB WITH LAYERS OF WEAK
BACKING WINDS SUGGESTING THE SUBSIDENCE. MIXED PARCEL CAPE SUGGESTS
GENERALLY CAPPED AIRMASS EXCEPT WITH SEABREEZE SUPPORT. HI RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONVERGE ON PATTERN WITH ISOLATED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
AROUND NOON ALONG EAST COAST AND WEST COAST OF PENINSULA...WITH
ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE TOWARD 23Z AS SEA BREEZES CONVERGE
OVER CTRL PENINSULA. ANTICIPATE FASTER WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF EAST
COAST SEABREEZE OVER NCTRL FL GIVEN CURRERNT LLVL SE FLOW...COMPARED
TO SE GA GIVEN CURRENT LLVL SW FLOW.

HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY POP GRID PATTERN TO SUPPORT THE ABOVE
SCENARIO...WHICH MAY BE REPEATED ON TUE. LOW-LEVEL SOUNDING TEMPS AND
MODEL FORECAST LOW-LEVEL TEMPS/THICKNESSES SUPPORT EQUALLY HOT CONDITIONS
INTERIOR SE GA/NE FL WHERE WE HAD SEVERAL 97-99 DEG READINGS YESTERDAY.
SOME AREAS OF THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS...BUT ANTICIPATE ENOUGH INSOLATION
TO SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CURRENT FORECAST.
ELSEWHERE HIGH TEMP FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN TAFS. ANTICIPATE WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSRA WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCAL
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. VCTS CURRENTLY IN TAFS...WILL REEVALUATE
KGNV FOR A PERIOD OF GREATER TSRA POTENTIAL IN 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR GREATER TSRA COVERAGE IN THAT AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS TODAY. NO SIG CHANGES PLANNED
IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE.

RIP CURRENTS: UPDATING TO JUST LOW RISK THIS AFTERNOON...NOT
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SWELL DETECTED BY AVAILABLE BUOYS...AND
WITH NO LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON...THINK LOW RISK WILL BE FINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  96  73  94  73 /  50  50  50  50
SSI  88  77  88  76 /  20  10  20  10
JAX  92  74  92  73 /  20  10  20  20
SGJ  88  75  89  74 /  20  10  20  10
GNV  92  72  92  71 /  60  50  40  40
OCF  92  72  92  72 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/GUILLET







000
FXUS62 KJAX 011319
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
919 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME LABOR DAY PATTERN. 12Z SOUNDINGS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR WITH
LOW-LEVEL WEAK SW FLOW JAX NORTHWARD...WEAK SE FLOW S OF JAX. RIDGE
ALOFT OVER SRN GA WITH WEAK NE FLOW OVER FORECAST AREA. 12Z SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ABOVE 850MB WITH LAYERS OF WEAK
BACKING WINDS SUGGESTING THE SUBSIDENCE. MIXED PARCEL CAPE SUGGESTS
GENERALLY CAPPED AIRMASS EXCEPT WITH SEABREEZE SUPPORT. HI RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONVERGE ON PATTERN WITH ISOLATED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
AROUND NOON ALONG EAST COAST AND WEST COAST OF PENINSULA...WITH
ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE TOWARD 23Z AS SEA BREEZES CONVERGE
OVER CTRL PENINSULA. ANTICIPATE FASTER WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF EAST
COAST SEABREEZE OVER NCTRL FL GIVEN CURRERNT LLVL SE FLOW...COMPARED
TO SE GA GIVEN CURRENT LLVL SW FLOW.

HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY POP GRID PATTERN TO SUPPORT THE ABOVE
SCENARIO...WHICH MAY BE REPEATED ON TUE. LOW-LEVEL SOUNDING TEMPS AND
MODEL FORECAST LOW-LEVEL TEMPS/THICKNESSES SUPPORT EQUALLY HOT CONDITIONS
INTERIOR SE GA/NE FL WHERE WE HAD SEVERAL 97-99 DEG READINGS YESTERDAY.
SOME AREAS OF THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS...BUT ANTICIPATE ENOUGH INSOLATION
TO SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CURRENT FORECAST.
ELSEWHERE HIGH TEMP FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN TAFS. ANTICIPATE WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSRA WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCAL
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. VCTS CURRENTLY IN TAFS...WILL REEVALUATE
KGNV FOR A PERIOD OF GREATER TSRA POTENTIAL IN 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR GREATER TSRA COVERAGE IN THAT AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS TODAY. NO SIG CHANGES PLANNED
IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE.

RIP CURRENTS: UPDATING TO JUST LOW RISK THIS AFTERNOON...NOT
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SWELL DETECTED BY AVAILABLE BUOYS...AND
WITH NO LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON...THINK LOW RISK WILL BE FINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  96  73  94  73 /  50  50  50  50
SSI  88  77  88  76 /  20  10  20  10
JAX  92  74  92  73 /  20  10  20  20
SGJ  88  75  89  74 /  20  10  20  10
GNV  92  72  92  71 /  60  50  40  40
OCF  92  72  92  72 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/GUILLET








000
FXUS62 KJAX 010812
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
410 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING INLAND SHOWERS AND STORMS...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY/TONIGHT...

A MEAN LAYER (1000-500 MB) RIDGE REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
A CONTINUED LIGHT EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE
AND HEATING AGAIN FAVORS DIURNAL STORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE TOWARDS
THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVE WHERE THERE WILL BE
THE MERGER OF SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE AGAIN DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION.
MAX TEMPS CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND AND A SHADE UNDER
90 ALONG THE COAST. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES ACROSS
INLAND SE GA AND 100 TO 102 DEGREES ACROSS INLAND NE FL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INLAND IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY FADE DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE MEAN LAYER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE WEST AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH...TO JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. A PATTERN OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS INLAND
TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE...
FROM SEABREEZE/BOUNDARY MERGERS AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AGAIN DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION.
POPS WILL BE LIMITED ALONG THE EAST COAST DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S
INLAND AND A SHADE UNDER 90 AT THE COAST. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES 100 TO
102 DEGREES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INLAND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FADE DURING THE EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER SRN GA WITH
LIGHT ELY WIND FLOW REGIME HELPING TO PROPAGATE E COAST SEA BREEZE
INLAND DURING THE DAY. MID TO UPPER TROUGH (TUTT) WILL TRANSLATE WWD
ACROSS S AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY ISOLD ALONG COASTAL
COUNTIES WED WITH MAINLY LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
NEAR 30% CHANCE FOR INLAND ZONES. HIGHS AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST AND
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. EVENING CONVECTION MAINLY JUST ISOLD WILL
FADE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...THU-SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING TUTT FEATURE MOVING WWD
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND USHER IN DEEPER MOISTURE OVER
THE SE ZONES BY LATER IN THE DAY ON THU WHICH IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
ON FRI. BASED ON THIS...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH OUR RAIN
CHANCES WILL GET A NICE BOOST TO CLIMO VALUES OR HIGHER...WITH
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS BEING PUSHED BACK NWD AND/OR WEAKENING. WHILE
EURO AND GFS MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS ON THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN SAT AND SUN...THEY EACH SHOW MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MEAN LAYER
MOISTURE AND A WEAK PRES GRADIENT TO SUPPORT DAILY SEA BREEZES AND
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. OVERALL...BEST RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR INLAND ZONES DURING THE PERIOD THU-SAT
BASED ON THE FLOW REGIME...BUT PERHAPS MORE HOMOGENEOUS POPS ON SUN
AS DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOME LIGHT S TO SW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FRI THROUGH SUN WITH PWAT VALUES UPWARDS OF 2
INCHES AND LIGHT MID LEVEL WINDS. HAVE TRENDED MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY DURING THE PERIOD BUT STAYED NEAR OR JUST BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE BASED ON BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...OCNL MVFR VSBY FROM PATCHY FOG AT GNV AND VQQ TIL 12Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST COVERAGE TOWARDS THE I-75
CORRIDOR WHERE SEABREEZES AND OUTFLOWS MERGE. HAVE VCTS AT GNV
BETWEEN 21Z-02Z AND VQQ BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. HAVE VCSH AT JAX AND CRG
BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. AMENDMENTS FOR POSSIBLE IFR DUE TO TS POSSIBLE AT
GNV AND VQQ.

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS MAINLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST 10
KNOTS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER DURING THE EVENING BUT BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING LONG PERIOD SWELL AND AN AFTERNOON ONSHORE
FLOW WARRANTS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  73  94  73 /  60  30  50  50
SSI  88  77  88  76 /  20  10  20  10
JAX  92  74  92  73 /  30  10  20  20
SGJ  88  75  89  74 /  20  10  20  10
GNV  92  72  92  71 /  60  40  40  40
OCF  92  72  92  72 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS







000
FXUS62 KJAX 010812
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
410 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING INLAND SHOWERS AND STORMS...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY/TONIGHT...

A MEAN LAYER (1000-500 MB) RIDGE REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
A CONTINUED LIGHT EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE
AND HEATING AGAIN FAVORS DIURNAL STORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE TOWARDS
THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVE WHERE THERE WILL BE
THE MERGER OF SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE AGAIN DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION.
MAX TEMPS CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND AND A SHADE UNDER
90 ALONG THE COAST. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES ACROSS
INLAND SE GA AND 100 TO 102 DEGREES ACROSS INLAND NE FL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INLAND IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY FADE DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE MEAN LAYER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE WEST AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH...TO JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. A PATTERN OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS INLAND
TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE...
FROM SEABREEZE/BOUNDARY MERGERS AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AGAIN DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION.
POPS WILL BE LIMITED ALONG THE EAST COAST DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S
INLAND AND A SHADE UNDER 90 AT THE COAST. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES 100 TO
102 DEGREES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INLAND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FADE DURING THE EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER SRN GA WITH
LIGHT ELY WIND FLOW REGIME HELPING TO PROPAGATE E COAST SEA BREEZE
INLAND DURING THE DAY. MID TO UPPER TROUGH (TUTT) WILL TRANSLATE WWD
ACROSS S AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY ISOLD ALONG COASTAL
COUNTIES WED WITH MAINLY LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
NEAR 30% CHANCE FOR INLAND ZONES. HIGHS AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST AND
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. EVENING CONVECTION MAINLY JUST ISOLD WILL
FADE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...THU-SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING TUTT FEATURE MOVING WWD
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND USHER IN DEEPER MOISTURE OVER
THE SE ZONES BY LATER IN THE DAY ON THU WHICH IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
ON FRI. BASED ON THIS...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH OUR RAIN
CHANCES WILL GET A NICE BOOST TO CLIMO VALUES OR HIGHER...WITH
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS BEING PUSHED BACK NWD AND/OR WEAKENING. WHILE
EURO AND GFS MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS ON THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN SAT AND SUN...THEY EACH SHOW MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MEAN LAYER
MOISTURE AND A WEAK PRES GRADIENT TO SUPPORT DAILY SEA BREEZES AND
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. OVERALL...BEST RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR INLAND ZONES DURING THE PERIOD THU-SAT
BASED ON THE FLOW REGIME...BUT PERHAPS MORE HOMOGENEOUS POPS ON SUN
AS DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOME LIGHT S TO SW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FRI THROUGH SUN WITH PWAT VALUES UPWARDS OF 2
INCHES AND LIGHT MID LEVEL WINDS. HAVE TRENDED MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY DURING THE PERIOD BUT STAYED NEAR OR JUST BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE BASED ON BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...OCNL MVFR VSBY FROM PATCHY FOG AT GNV AND VQQ TIL 12Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST COVERAGE TOWARDS THE I-75
CORRIDOR WHERE SEABREEZES AND OUTFLOWS MERGE. HAVE VCTS AT GNV
BETWEEN 21Z-02Z AND VQQ BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. HAVE VCSH AT JAX AND CRG
BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. AMENDMENTS FOR POSSIBLE IFR DUE TO TS POSSIBLE AT
GNV AND VQQ.

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS MAINLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST 10
KNOTS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER DURING THE EVENING BUT BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING LONG PERIOD SWELL AND AN AFTERNOON ONSHORE
FLOW WARRANTS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  73  94  73 /  60  30  50  50
SSI  88  77  88  76 /  20  10  20  10
JAX  92  74  92  73 /  30  10  20  20
SGJ  88  75  89  74 /  20  10  20  10
GNV  92  72  92  71 /  60  40  40  40
OCF  92  72  92  72 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS






000
FXUS62 KJAX 010023
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
823 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS EVENING...

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
INTERIOR SE GA ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE. WITH STORM
MOTION VERY SLOW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ACTIVITY
ACROSS FAR INLAND NE FL CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
THINK ACTIVITY ACROSS FL WILL END BY LATE THIS EVENING...WITH THE
CONVECTION ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA A BIT LATER TO DIMINISH...LINGERING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
TNGT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES TONIGHT. PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING KVQQ/KGNV.

DIURNALLY ENHANCED SEA BREEZE GENERATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE FURTHER INLAND...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KVQQ/KGNV TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH LABOR DAY WITH RESIDUAL
EASTERLY SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  95  74  95 /  50  60  60  60
SSI  77  87  76  87 /  10  20  10  20
JAX  75  91  74  91 /  10  30  10  20
SGJ  75  88  75  88 /  10  20  10  20
GNV  72  90  72  90 /  20  60  60  50
OCF  72  91  72  90 /  20  60  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE/WALKER







000
FXUS62 KJAX 010023
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
823 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS EVENING...

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
INTERIOR SE GA ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE. WITH STORM
MOTION VERY SLOW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ACTIVITY
ACROSS FAR INLAND NE FL CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
THINK ACTIVITY ACROSS FL WILL END BY LATE THIS EVENING...WITH THE
CONVECTION ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA A BIT LATER TO DIMINISH...LINGERING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
TNGT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES TONIGHT. PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING KVQQ/KGNV.

DIURNALLY ENHANCED SEA BREEZE GENERATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
BE FURTHER INLAND...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KVQQ/KGNV TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH LABOR DAY WITH RESIDUAL
EASTERLY SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  95  74  95 /  50  60  60  60
SSI  77  87  76  87 /  10  20  10  20
JAX  75  91  74  91 /  10  30  10  20
SGJ  75  88  75  88 /  10  20  10  20
GNV  72  90  72  90 /  20  60  60  50
OCF  72  91  72  90 /  20  60  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE/WALKER








000
FXUS62 KJAX 311801
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
201 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...SOME STORMS THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN
FURNISHING LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS INTERIOR NE FLORIDA...

.NEAR TERM...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MEAN 925-700 MB RIDGE
CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT EASTERLY STEERING FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. THE
SEABREEZE HAS STARTED TO BISECT THE THE FLORIDA FIRST COAST
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND IS HUGGING THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
GEORGIA. IN ADDITION...THE NATURE COAST SEA BREEZE IS COMMENCING
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. THESE RESPECTIVE BOUNDARIES ARE FCST TO
LIKELY MEET ACROSS THE FLORIDA I-75 CORRIDOR AND INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF SE GEORGIA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS FEASIBILITY PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING
MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ALMA GEORGIA TO OCALA FLORIDA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WANE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.


.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE DUE EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A WEAK TROUGH WILL
BE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE REGION.

WITH THIS PATTERN...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY DIURNALLY ENHANCED SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE
EARLER DEVELOPMENT IN INLAND SOUTHEAST GA. OTHERWISE WOULD EXPECT
A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE EAST COAST IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND PROPAGATE WESTWARD WITH THE SEA BREEZE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD CATCH UP WITH THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE...FOCUSING CONVECTION OVER THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. A
LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE MAY BE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON OVER FAR
INLAND SE GA...DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
WITH MOST SHOWERS ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE NIGHTS WILL BE INFLUENCED GREATLY BY HOW MUCH CONVECTION
DEVELOPS DURING THE DAYS. WOULD EXPECT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT EACH NIGHT...WITH SPOTTY FOG DEVELOPING
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE AFTERNOON RAINS...AND CLEAR OUT FAST.

A CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THIS PATTERN A MORE
MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL THIS
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE OVER FAR
INLAND REGIONS...WITH THE SEA BREEZE CAPPING READINGS NEAR THE
COAST.


&&

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE
BAHAMAS AS AN UPPER LOW SLIPS UNDERNEATH INTO THE GULF.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE CONTENT HIGH ENOUGH TO YIELD
ABOVE CLIMO POPS (AROUND 40-50%) FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE EURO AND GFS
DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY. THE GFS HAS AN AMPLIFIED EAST COAST TROUGH
WHILE THE EURO KEEPS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH A SMALL VORT MAX OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.AVIATION...

FR FOR COASTAL TAFS WITH VERY LIMITED SHWRS AND TSTMS
FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON (18Z TO 20Z)...BUT NOT ENOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. FOR INTERIOR TAF...KGNV CAN FEASIBLY HAVE
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION ANTICIPATED ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS CONVECTION MAY
LINGER OUT WEST OF THE KGNV TERMINAL THROUGH 03Z. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION BUT VERY
LIMITED WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NOCTURNAL HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS MAINLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT 10 KNOTS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER DURING THE EVENING BUT BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING LONG PERIOD ESE SWELL AND AFTERNOON
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WARRANT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
LABOR DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  95  74  95 /  20  60  60  60
SSI  77  87  76  87 /  10  20  10  20
JAX  75  91  74  91 /  20  30  10  20
SGJ  75  88  75  88 /  10  20  10  20
GNV  72  90  72  90 /  40  60  60  50
OCF  72  91  72  90 /  40  60  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/CORDERO/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KJAX 311801
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
201 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...SOME STORMS THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN
FURNISHING LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS INTERIOR NE FLORIDA...

.NEAR TERM...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MEAN 925-700 MB RIDGE
CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT EASTERLY STEERING FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. THE
SEABREEZE HAS STARTED TO BISECT THE THE FLORIDA FIRST COAST
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND IS HUGGING THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
GEORGIA. IN ADDITION...THE NATURE COAST SEA BREEZE IS COMMENCING
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. THESE RESPECTIVE BOUNDARIES ARE FCST TO
LIKELY MEET ACROSS THE FLORIDA I-75 CORRIDOR AND INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF SE GEORGIA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS FEASIBILITY PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING
MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ALMA GEORGIA TO OCALA FLORIDA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WANE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.


.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE DUE EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A WEAK TROUGH WILL
BE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE REGION.

WITH THIS PATTERN...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY DIURNALLY ENHANCED SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE
EARLER DEVELOPMENT IN INLAND SOUTHEAST GA. OTHERWISE WOULD EXPECT
A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE EAST COAST IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND PROPAGATE WESTWARD WITH THE SEA BREEZE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD CATCH UP WITH THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE...FOCUSING CONVECTION OVER THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. A
LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE MAY BE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON OVER FAR
INLAND SE GA...DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
WITH MOST SHOWERS ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE NIGHTS WILL BE INFLUENCED GREATLY BY HOW MUCH CONVECTION
DEVELOPS DURING THE DAYS. WOULD EXPECT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT EACH NIGHT...WITH SPOTTY FOG DEVELOPING
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE AFTERNOON RAINS...AND CLEAR OUT FAST.

A CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THIS PATTERN A MORE
MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL THIS
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE OVER FAR
INLAND REGIONS...WITH THE SEA BREEZE CAPPING READINGS NEAR THE
COAST.


&&

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE
BAHAMAS AS AN UPPER LOW SLIPS UNDERNEATH INTO THE GULF.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE CONTENT HIGH ENOUGH TO YIELD
ABOVE CLIMO POPS (AROUND 40-50%) FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE EURO AND GFS
DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY. THE GFS HAS AN AMPLIFIED EAST COAST TROUGH
WHILE THE EURO KEEPS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH A SMALL VORT MAX OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.AVIATION...

FR FOR COASTAL TAFS WITH VERY LIMITED SHWRS AND TSTMS
FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON (18Z TO 20Z)...BUT NOT ENOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. FOR INTERIOR TAF...KGNV CAN FEASIBLY HAVE
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION ANTICIPATED ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS CONVECTION MAY
LINGER OUT WEST OF THE KGNV TERMINAL THROUGH 03Z. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION BUT VERY
LIMITED WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NOCTURNAL HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS MAINLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT 10 KNOTS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER DURING THE EVENING BUT BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING LONG PERIOD ESE SWELL AND AFTERNOON
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WARRANT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
LABOR DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  95  74  95 /  20  60  60  60
SSI  77  87  76  87 /  10  20  10  20
JAX  75  91  74  91 /  20  30  10  20
SGJ  75  88  75  88 /  10  20  10  20
GNV  72  90  72  90 /  40  60  60  50
OCF  72  91  72  90 /  40  60  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/CORDERO/WALSH








000
FXUS62 KJAX 311510
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1110 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING...

.UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE AOR THROUGH MIDWEEK ALLOWING A LIGHT FLOW TO
PERSIST WITH MERGING INNER PENINSULA SEA BREEZE REGIME AGAIN
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LATE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE GEORGIA. DOWNPLAYED LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH LOWER POPS WITH CHANCES OF RAIN
BECOMING MORE ROBUST IN THE AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THESE ARE THE SAME AREAS THAT HAD AREAS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY. WITH THE LIGHT FLOW ALOFT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE AROUND 2 INCHES SOME STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM ALMA GEORGIA TO OCALA FLORIDA THIS MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR LOCAL FLOODING...PARTICULARLY
WEST OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED LINE.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR FOR COASTAL TAFS WITH ISOLD SHWRS AND TSTMS FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON (18Z TO 20Z). FOR INTERIOR TAF...KGNV MAY
HAVE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS (CIGS AND VSBY) WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION ANTIPATED ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS CONVECTION MAY
LINGER OUT WEST OF I-75 THROUGH 03Z OR LATER. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION BUT VERY LIMITED WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NOCTURNAL HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS MAINLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST 10
KNOTS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER DURING THE EVENING BUT BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING LONG PERIOD ESE SWELL AND AFTERNOON
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WARRANT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
LABOR DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  72  96  73 /  30  20  30  30
SSI  89  77  89  77 /  20  10  20  10
JAX  93  73  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
SGJ  89  75  89  74 /  20  10  20  20
GNV  93  71  93  71 /  50  40  40  30
OCF  93  72  93  72 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CORDERO/STRUBLE/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KJAX 311510
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1110 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING...

.UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE AOR THROUGH MIDWEEK ALLOWING A LIGHT FLOW TO
PERSIST WITH MERGING INNER PENINSULA SEA BREEZE REGIME AGAIN
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LATE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE GEORGIA. DOWNPLAYED LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH LOWER POPS WITH CHANCES OF RAIN
BECOMING MORE ROBUST IN THE AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THESE ARE THE SAME AREAS THAT HAD AREAS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY. WITH THE LIGHT FLOW ALOFT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE AROUND 2 INCHES SOME STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM ALMA GEORGIA TO OCALA FLORIDA THIS MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WILL REMAIN VIGILANT FOR LOCAL FLOODING...PARTICULARLY
WEST OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED LINE.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR FOR COASTAL TAFS WITH ISOLD SHWRS AND TSTMS FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON (18Z TO 20Z). FOR INTERIOR TAF...KGNV MAY
HAVE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS (CIGS AND VSBY) WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION ANTIPATED ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS CONVECTION MAY
LINGER OUT WEST OF I-75 THROUGH 03Z OR LATER. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION BUT VERY LIMITED WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NOCTURNAL HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS MAINLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST 10
KNOTS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER DURING THE EVENING BUT BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING LONG PERIOD ESE SWELL AND AFTERNOON
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WARRANT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
LABOR DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  72  96  73 /  30  20  30  30
SSI  89  77  89  77 /  20  10  20  10
JAX  93  73  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
SGJ  89  75  89  74 /  20  10  20  20
GNV  93  71  93  71 /  50  40  40  30
OCF  93  72  93  72 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CORDERO/STRUBLE/WALSH








000
FXUS62 KJAX 310810
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON INLAND STORMS...

...HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES INLAND IN AFTERNOON...

TODAY/TONIGHT...

A MEAN LAYER (1000-500 MB)RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH GA.  LIGHT
EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND HEATING
FAVORS DIURNAL STORMS AGAIN WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS AND OUT TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVE WHERE THE MERGER OF SEA BREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS WILL
OCCUR. PWAT`S ARE NEAR 2 INCHES AND WITH LIGHT STEERING FLOW...COULD
HAVE LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS.
MAX TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND AND A SHADE UNDER 90
AT THE COAST. HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END
DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...

THE MEAN LAYER RIDGE REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. A CONTINUED
LIGHT EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND HEATING
AGAIN FAVORS DIURNAL STORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE TOWARDS THE I-75
CORRIDOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVE WHERE THERE WILL BE THE
MERGER OF SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
MAX TEMPS CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND AND NEAR 90 ALONG THE
COAST. HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING.

TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH RIDGE N OF THE AREA WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE BUT SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DUE MAINLY DUE TO SEAS BREEZES AND DIURNAL HEATING...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES INLAND AREAS AT AROUND 30% OR 40% AT MOST...AROUND
20% AT THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. OVERALL PREFERENCE
TO THE GFS MOS OVER THE NAM. TUE NIGHT...ISOLD CONVECTION EXPECTED
IN THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  MEAN LAYER RIDGE
AXIS N OF THE AREA BEGINS TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE FORECAST REGION AS
A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHES SRN FL AND THE
BAHAMAS. LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...WED-SAT.
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WED AND THU SHOWING MEAN LAYER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING FURTHER AWAY TO JUST NW OF THE AREA WHILE
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) FEATURE MOVES UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE OVER FL AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE TUTT MOVING TO THE AREA LATE THU AND WAS
PREFERRED OVER THE ECMWF BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. A DRY SLOT WELL
NW OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON WED TO ISOLD TO
SCT COVERAGE WHICH MAY LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THU AS WELL. DEEP E
FLOW WILL STILL FAVOR BEST T-STORM CHANCES INLAND AREAS. ON
FRI...THE GFS SHOWS A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE CHANCES WITH
LESS SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES OVER
SRN/CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL NUDGE UP POPS TO MID
TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. ON SAT...THE SW-NE ORIENTED TUTT FEATURE
WILL SHIFT WWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FL PANHANDLE BUT SOME
WEAKENING IN THE MID LEVELS STILL EXISTS OVER THE CWA WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DEEP LAYER
FLOW BECOMES LIGHT SLY...ALSO A MORE FAVORABLE REGIME FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
WED AND THU AND BECOME MORE TYPICAL ON FRI AND SAT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING PREVAILING MVFR VSBY AT GNV BETWEEN 08Z-13Z AND
OCNL MVFR VSBY AT VQQ BETWEEN 10Z-12Z FROM PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST COVERAGE AGAIN TOWARDS
GNV WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS MERGE. HAVE VCTS AT GNV
BEGINNING AT GNV AT 19Z. MAY ALSO NEED A VCTS AT VQQ. AMENDMENTS
FOR POSSIBLE IFR DUE TO TS POSSIBLE AT GNV BETWEEN 19Z-24Z.

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS MAINLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST 10
KNOTS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER DURING THE EVENING BUT BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING LONG PERIOD ESE SWELL AND AFTERNOON
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WARRANT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
LABOR DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  72  96  73 /  40  30  30  30
SSI  89  77  89  77 /  30  20  20  10
JAX  93  73  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
SGJ  89  75  89  74 /  30  20  20  20
GNV  93  71  93  71 /  50  40  40  30
OCF  93  72  93  72 /  50  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS






000
FXUS62 KJAX 310810
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON INLAND STORMS...

...HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES INLAND IN AFTERNOON...

TODAY/TONIGHT...

A MEAN LAYER (1000-500 MB)RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH GA.  LIGHT
EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND HEATING
FAVORS DIURNAL STORMS AGAIN WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS AND OUT TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVE WHERE THE MERGER OF SEA BREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS WILL
OCCUR. PWAT`S ARE NEAR 2 INCHES AND WITH LIGHT STEERING FLOW...COULD
HAVE LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS.
MAX TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND AND A SHADE UNDER 90
AT THE COAST. HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END
DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...

THE MEAN LAYER RIDGE REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. A CONTINUED
LIGHT EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND HEATING
AGAIN FAVORS DIURNAL STORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE TOWARDS THE I-75
CORRIDOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVE WHERE THERE WILL BE THE
MERGER OF SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
MAX TEMPS CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND AND NEAR 90 ALONG THE
COAST. HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING.

TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH RIDGE N OF THE AREA WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE BUT SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DUE MAINLY DUE TO SEAS BREEZES AND DIURNAL HEATING...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES INLAND AREAS AT AROUND 30% OR 40% AT MOST...AROUND
20% AT THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. OVERALL PREFERENCE
TO THE GFS MOS OVER THE NAM. TUE NIGHT...ISOLD CONVECTION EXPECTED
IN THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  MEAN LAYER RIDGE
AXIS N OF THE AREA BEGINS TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE FORECAST REGION AS
A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHES SRN FL AND THE
BAHAMAS. LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...WED-SAT.
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WED AND THU SHOWING MEAN LAYER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING FURTHER AWAY TO JUST NW OF THE AREA WHILE
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) FEATURE MOVES UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE OVER FL AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE TUTT MOVING TO THE AREA LATE THU AND WAS
PREFERRED OVER THE ECMWF BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. A DRY SLOT WELL
NW OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON WED TO ISOLD TO
SCT COVERAGE WHICH MAY LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THU AS WELL. DEEP E
FLOW WILL STILL FAVOR BEST T-STORM CHANCES INLAND AREAS. ON
FRI...THE GFS SHOWS A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE CHANCES WITH
LESS SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES OVER
SRN/CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL NUDGE UP POPS TO MID
TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS. ON SAT...THE SW-NE ORIENTED TUTT FEATURE
WILL SHIFT WWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FL PANHANDLE BUT SOME
WEAKENING IN THE MID LEVELS STILL EXISTS OVER THE CWA WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DEEP LAYER
FLOW BECOMES LIGHT SLY...ALSO A MORE FAVORABLE REGIME FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
WED AND THU AND BECOME MORE TYPICAL ON FRI AND SAT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECTING PREVAILING MVFR VSBY AT GNV BETWEEN 08Z-13Z AND
OCNL MVFR VSBY AT VQQ BETWEEN 10Z-12Z FROM PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST COVERAGE AGAIN TOWARDS
GNV WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS MERGE. HAVE VCTS AT GNV
BEGINNING AT GNV AT 19Z. MAY ALSO NEED A VCTS AT VQQ. AMENDMENTS
FOR POSSIBLE IFR DUE TO TS POSSIBLE AT GNV BETWEEN 19Z-24Z.

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS MAINLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST 10
KNOTS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER DURING THE EVENING BUT BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING LONG PERIOD ESE SWELL AND AFTERNOON
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WARRANT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
LABOR DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  72  96  73 /  40  30  30  30
SSI  89  77  89  77 /  30  20  20  10
JAX  93  73  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
SGJ  89  75  89  74 /  30  20  20  20
GNV  93  71  93  71 /  50  40  40  30
OCF  93  72  93  72 /  50  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS







000
FXUS62 KJAX 310050
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
850 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...SOME PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
THE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH
ALL ACTIVITY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. THE CURRENT FCST HAS THESE
TRENDS HANDLED WELL...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WILL ADD PATCHY
FOG ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING GIVEN THE RATHER WIDE COVERAGE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 THIS
EVENING...DISSIPATING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WHILE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AT KVQQ/KGNV. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE AT KGNV WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS EVENING.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. CONVECTION ON SUNDAY WILL BE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SEA BREEZE INDUCED. CONVECTION...IF ANY...WILL LIKELY BE
LATER IN THE DAY...AS WAS THE CASE TODAY. THEREFORE...HAVE NOT
INCLUDED MENTION IN CURRENT TAF SET. KGNV WOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A STORM ON SUNDAY...BUT CHANCE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING JUST NORTH OF
THE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RESIDUAL EASTERLY
SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  94  72  95 /  10  40  30  30
SSI  77  89  77  89 /  10  30  20  20
JAX  74  92  74  92 /  10  30  20  30
SGJ  75  89  75  89 /  10  30  20  20
GNV  72  92  72  93 /  60  50  40  40
OCF  73  93  73  93 /  40  50  30  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE/WALKER







000
FXUS62 KJAX 310050
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
850 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...SOME PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
THE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH
ALL ACTIVITY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. THE CURRENT FCST HAS THESE
TRENDS HANDLED WELL...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WILL ADD PATCHY
FOG ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING GIVEN THE RATHER WIDE COVERAGE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 THIS
EVENING...DISSIPATING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WHILE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AT KVQQ/KGNV. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE AT KGNV WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS EVENING.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. CONVECTION ON SUNDAY WILL BE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SEA BREEZE INDUCED. CONVECTION...IF ANY...WILL LIKELY BE
LATER IN THE DAY...AS WAS THE CASE TODAY. THEREFORE...HAVE NOT
INCLUDED MENTION IN CURRENT TAF SET. KGNV WOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A STORM ON SUNDAY...BUT CHANCE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING JUST NORTH OF
THE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RESIDUAL EASTERLY
SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  94  72  95 /  10  40  30  30
SSI  77  89  77  89 /  10  30  20  20
JAX  74  92  74  92 /  10  30  20  30
SGJ  75  89  75  89 /  10  30  20  20
GNV  72  92  72  93 /  60  50  40  40
OCF  73  93  73  93 /  40  50  30  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE/WALKER








000
FXUS62 KJAX 301809
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
209 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING TO BEGIN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS A
LONE SHOWER NEAR O`BRIEN ROSE UP THEN FIZZLED QUICKLY. A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE GA COASTAL WATERS HAS SPARKED SCATTERED T`STORMS
WHICH ARE STRADDLING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SE GA WATERS. IT`S
NOT SURPRISING THAT CONVECTION SHOWS SIGNS OF DEVLOPING ALONG THE
SEABREEZE IN GLYNN COUNTY. KJAX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN INVERSION AT
900 MB. WAITING ON TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 90S FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST SEA
BREEZES ARE ALSO STRUGGLING TO MOVE INLAND UNDER VERY LIGHT FLOW.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON PRECIP
WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY FROM HEATING THIS AFTN AND THEN A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE WESTERN PORTION AROUND SUNSET AND
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING. WILL LOWER POPS 10-20% FOR
REST OF AFTN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO IN THE
70S. CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT MAY
DRIFT INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS THE FINAL FORECAST
DISCUSSION OF MY NWS CAREER. BEST WISHES TO ALL.

.EXTENDED /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BERMUDA-AZORES RIDGE EXTENDS WEST ACROSS FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE REGION. TUESDAY A FRONTAL SYSTEM
TRIES TO PUSH IN FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA BUT WILL STALL OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION OVER GEORGIA THROUGH MID- WEEK. FRIDAY GET INTERESTING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF THE BAHAMAS MOVES FIRST
WEST THEN NORTHWEST TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION
THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY THE
UPPER LOW MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY ARE GOING TO BE WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND SOUTH GEORGIA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THEN APPROACH CLIMO LATER IN THE WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...
WHILE THE TSTORM FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN EXPECT SOME WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE AROUND
22Z IN THE VICINITY OF CRG AND VQQ. AS SEABREEZES MERGE LATER IN THE
AFTN/EVENING EXPECT STRONGER TSRA TO IMPACT GNV WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF IFR/LIFR VIS. ADDITIONALLY MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AT GNV IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING JUST NORTH OF
THE WATERS. A NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WINDS SOUTH
10-15 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL OFTEN BE LESS THAN
10 KTS.

RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING ESE SWELL AND AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW
WILL WARRANT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  94  72  95 /  30  40  30  30
SSI  77  89  77  89 /  20  30  20  20
JAX  74  92  74  92 /  30  30  20  30
SGJ  75  89  75  89 /  20  30  20  20
GNV  72  92  72  93 /  50  50  40  40
OCF  73  93  73  93 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

TRABERT/SANDRIK/WALSH






000
FXUS62 KJAX 301809
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
209 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING TO BEGIN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS A
LONE SHOWER NEAR O`BRIEN ROSE UP THEN FIZZLED QUICKLY. A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE GA COASTAL WATERS HAS SPARKED SCATTERED T`STORMS
WHICH ARE STRADDLING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SE GA WATERS. IT`S
NOT SURPRISING THAT CONVECTION SHOWS SIGNS OF DEVLOPING ALONG THE
SEABREEZE IN GLYNN COUNTY. KJAX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN INVERSION AT
900 MB. WAITING ON TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 90S FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST SEA
BREEZES ARE ALSO STRUGGLING TO MOVE INLAND UNDER VERY LIGHT FLOW.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON PRECIP
WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY FROM HEATING THIS AFTN AND THEN A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE WESTERN PORTION AROUND SUNSET AND
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING. WILL LOWER POPS 10-20% FOR
REST OF AFTN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO IN THE
70S. CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT MAY
DRIFT INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS THE FINAL FORECAST
DISCUSSION OF MY NWS CAREER. BEST WISHES TO ALL.

.EXTENDED /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BERMUDA-AZORES RIDGE EXTENDS WEST ACROSS FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE REGION. TUESDAY A FRONTAL SYSTEM
TRIES TO PUSH IN FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA BUT WILL STALL OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION OVER GEORGIA THROUGH MID- WEEK. FRIDAY GET INTERESTING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF THE BAHAMAS MOVES FIRST
WEST THEN NORTHWEST TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION
THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY THE
UPPER LOW MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY ARE GOING TO BE WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND SOUTH GEORGIA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THEN APPROACH CLIMO LATER IN THE WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...
WHILE THE TSTORM FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN EXPECT SOME WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE AROUND
22Z IN THE VICINITY OF CRG AND VQQ. AS SEABREEZES MERGE LATER IN THE
AFTN/EVENING EXPECT STRONGER TSRA TO IMPACT GNV WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF IFR/LIFR VIS. ADDITIONALLY MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AT GNV IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINING JUST NORTH OF
THE WATERS. A NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WINDS SOUTH
10-15 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL OFTEN BE LESS THAN
10 KTS.

RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING ESE SWELL AND AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW
WILL WARRANT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  94  72  95 /  30  40  30  30
SSI  77  89  77  89 /  20  30  20  20
JAX  74  92  74  92 /  30  30  20  30
SGJ  75  89  75  89 /  20  30  20  20
GNV  72  92  72  93 /  50  50  40  40
OCF  73  93  73  93 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

TRABERT/SANDRIK/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 301319
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
919 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
A MEAN LAYER RIDGE (1000-500 MB) IS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE NWD LATER TODAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK
TROUGH BISECTING THE SFC RIDGE FROM NEAR THE ST. MARYS RIVER TO
ALONG THE GA COAST. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...ALTHO KJAX STILL HAS SOME DRY AIR ABOVE 550 MB...AND
PWATS ARE 1.8 TO 2 INCHES. LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED STORMS BY AFTERNOON. A LIGHT STEERING
FLOW WILL ALLOW BOTH THE ATLC AND GULF COAST SE BREEZES TO MOVE
SLOWLY INLAND. BEST COVERAGE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR ALONG THE SEA BREEZES. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE SBRZ
BOUNDARIES COLLIDING BETWEEN I-75 AND HWY 301 BY EVENING. LOSS OF
HEATING AFTER SUNSET WILL CAUSE THE ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN QUICKLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT SHOWERS/TSRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH BEST COVERAGE AROUND GNV. HAVE VCTS AT GNV BEGINNING AT 18Z
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS FOR IFR DUE TO TS POSSIBLE AT GNV BETWEEN 18Z-
24Z. HAVE VCTS AT REMAINING NE FL TERMINALS BETWEEN 20Z-24Z. THE
SCT TSRA ACTIVITY WILL END DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AND HAVE VCSH AT ALL NE FL TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z-03Z. FOR SSI
HAVE PREVAILING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES. A LIGHT SW TO SOUTH FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE WATERS
EXCEPT WINDS MAY TURN TO SE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA SOUND AS A WEAK
TROUGH CROSSES GA WATERS. SEAS ARE AROUND 2 FT THIS MORNING.

RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING ESE SWELL AND AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW
WILL WARRANT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  72  94  72 /  40  30  40  30
SSI  88  77  89  77 /  20  20  30  20
JAX  92  74  92  74 /  40  30  30  20
SGJ  89  75  89  75 /  30  30  30  20
GNV  92  72  92  72 /  50  50  50  40
OCF  92  73  93  73 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

TRABERT//WALSH







000
FXUS62 KJAX 300824
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
420 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...

THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG IS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER AREAS
THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE VISIBILITY MAY
BRIEFLY GET DOWN TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES
IN FEW SPOTS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR INCLUDING
GAINESVILLE. THE FOG WILL LIFT RAPIDLY BY MID MORNING.

TODAY/TONIGHT...A MEAN LAYER (1000-500 MB) RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
NUDGE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE TODAY. LIGHT WINDS ALONG
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED
STORMS AREA-WIDE BY AFTERNOON WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND
AREAS AS THE ATLC/GOMEX SEA BREEZE FRONTS MOVE SLOWLY INLAND. MAX
TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND AND A SHADE UNDER 90
ALONG THE COAST. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO END DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MEAN LAYER RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH GA
AND SLOWLY RETROGRADING. LIGHT EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND HEATING FAVORS DIURNAL STORMS AGAIN
WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AND OUT TOWARDS THE
I-75 CORRIDOR BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE WHERE THE
MERGER OF SEA BREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS WILL OCCUR. MAX TEMPS
AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND AND A SHADE UNDER 90 AT
THE COAST. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO END DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

.LONG TERM (FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE IN PRIOR FORECASTS AS MODELS SHOW 1000-500 MB RIDGE
JUST N OF THE AREA MON AND TUE RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER E TO NE
FLOW HELPING TO PUSH E COAST SEA BREEZE INLAND EASILY EACH DAY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS ABOUT 5915 METERS.
HIGHS AROUND MID 90S INLAND AND LOWER 90S TO NEAR 90 TOWARD THE
COAST. THIS FAIRLY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL FAVOR
INLAND AREAS FOR PRECIP CHANCES AROUND 30-40% RANGE AND 20-30% ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS.

MEAN FLOW BEGINS TO BACK LATE TUE INTO WED AS MODELS SHOW
WELL-DEFINED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SLOWLY NW THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS. A SLIVER OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WELL TO THE NW OF THE
FEATURE MAY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER OUR REGION ON
WED BUT FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL INDICATE CHANCE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...SHOULD AT LEAST BE 5-10% BELOW NORMAL.

THU AND FRI...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) MOVING NWD UP THE FL PENINSULA AND ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST REGION BY FRIDAY FROM SE TO NW. LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND ADDITION OF MOISTURE WILL HELP SHAVE OFF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FROM PRIOR DAY HIGH TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD. WE SHOULD SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR LOW CHANCES ON THU
TO AT LEAST A 30-40% AREA-WIDE ON FRI. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE E AND THEN SE ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG WITH OCNL IFR AT GNV TIL AROUND 13Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH  OF THE
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST COVERAGE TOWARDS GNV. HAVE
VCTS AT GNV BEGINNING AT 18Z ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS FOR POSSIBLE IFR
DUE TO TS POSSIBLE AT GNV BETWEEN 18Z-24Z. HAVE VCTS AT REST OF NE
FL TERMINALS BETWEEN 20Z-24Z. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL END DURING THE EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND HAVE VCSH AT ALL NE
FL TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z-03Z. FOR SSI HAVE PREVAILING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS MAINLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST 10
KNOTS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER DURING THE EVENING BUT BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING ESE SWELL AND AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW WILL
WARRANT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  72  94  72 /  40  30  40  30
SSI  88  77  89  77 /  20  20  30  20
JAX  92  74  92  74 /  40  30  30  20
SGJ  89  75  89  75 /  30  30  30  20
GNV  92  72  92  72 /  50  50  50  40
OCF  92  73  93  73 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS






000
FXUS62 KJAX 300824
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
420 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...

THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG IS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER AREAS
THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE VISIBILITY MAY
BRIEFLY GET DOWN TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES
IN FEW SPOTS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR INCLUDING
GAINESVILLE. THE FOG WILL LIFT RAPIDLY BY MID MORNING.

TODAY/TONIGHT...A MEAN LAYER (1000-500 MB) RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
NUDGE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE TODAY. LIGHT WINDS ALONG
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED
STORMS AREA-WIDE BY AFTERNOON WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND
AREAS AS THE ATLC/GOMEX SEA BREEZE FRONTS MOVE SLOWLY INLAND. MAX
TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND AND A SHADE UNDER 90
ALONG THE COAST. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO END DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MEAN LAYER RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH GA
AND SLOWLY RETROGRADING. LIGHT EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND HEATING FAVORS DIURNAL STORMS AGAIN
WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AND OUT TOWARDS THE
I-75 CORRIDOR BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE WHERE THE
MERGER OF SEA BREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS WILL OCCUR. MAX TEMPS
AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND AND A SHADE UNDER 90 AT
THE COAST. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO END DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

.LONG TERM (FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE IN PRIOR FORECASTS AS MODELS SHOW 1000-500 MB RIDGE
JUST N OF THE AREA MON AND TUE RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER E TO NE
FLOW HELPING TO PUSH E COAST SEA BREEZE INLAND EASILY EACH DAY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS ABOUT 5915 METERS.
HIGHS AROUND MID 90S INLAND AND LOWER 90S TO NEAR 90 TOWARD THE
COAST. THIS FAIRLY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL FAVOR
INLAND AREAS FOR PRECIP CHANCES AROUND 30-40% RANGE AND 20-30% ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS.

MEAN FLOW BEGINS TO BACK LATE TUE INTO WED AS MODELS SHOW
WELL-DEFINED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SLOWLY NW THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS. A SLIVER OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WELL TO THE NW OF THE
FEATURE MAY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER OUR REGION ON
WED BUT FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL INDICATE CHANCE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...SHOULD AT LEAST BE 5-10% BELOW NORMAL.

THU AND FRI...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) MOVING NWD UP THE FL PENINSULA AND ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST REGION BY FRIDAY FROM SE TO NW. LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND ADDITION OF MOISTURE WILL HELP SHAVE OFF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FROM PRIOR DAY HIGH TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD. WE SHOULD SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR LOW CHANCES ON THU
TO AT LEAST A 30-40% AREA-WIDE ON FRI. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE E AND THEN SE ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG WITH OCNL IFR AT GNV TIL AROUND 13Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH  OF THE
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST COVERAGE TOWARDS GNV. HAVE
VCTS AT GNV BEGINNING AT 18Z ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS FOR POSSIBLE IFR
DUE TO TS POSSIBLE AT GNV BETWEEN 18Z-24Z. HAVE VCTS AT REST OF NE
FL TERMINALS BETWEEN 20Z-24Z. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL END DURING THE EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND HAVE VCSH AT ALL NE
FL TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z-03Z. FOR SSI HAVE PREVAILING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS MAINLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST 10
KNOTS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER DURING THE EVENING BUT BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING ESE SWELL AND AFTERNOON ONSHORE FLOW WILL
WARRANT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  72  94  72 /  40  30  40  30
SSI  88  77  89  77 /  20  20  30  20
JAX  92  74  92  74 /  40  30  30  20
SGJ  89  75  89  75 /  30  30  30  20
GNV  92  72  92  72 /  50  50  50  40
OCF  92  73  93  73 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities