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000
FXUS62 KJAX 300842
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
442 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR PERSISTS AT INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY...

.CURRENTLY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE (1012 MILLIBARS) LOCATED
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST
OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE
FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...CREATING A DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY. WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS
OVER COASTAL GLYNN AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT...BUT ACTIVITY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. TEMPERATURES AT 08Z
RANGED FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY TO THE UPPER 70S IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 70 IN
COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRODUCING ENOUGH
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PRECLUDE ANY THREAT OF RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES AT OUR CLIMATE SITES THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 4
CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY...WITH A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR
MASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO
PUSH INLAND PAST THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT RECOVERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEVELS IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR (PWAT) VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
TOWARDS SUNSET...WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.
SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR AND ARW
DEPICT ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG OR EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR/ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY
CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THROUGH A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION
BASED AROUND 800 MILLIBARS (6500 FEET) BRIEF IN DURATION.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 90S INLAND...WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE KEEPING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SURFACE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL HUMIDITY LEVELS.
ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE WILL FADE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN AS
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS INLAND...AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND...RANGING
TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MORE MOIST AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO AREA ON THURSDAY BUT STILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO ONLY
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE. FRIDAY WILL SEE A MORE NORMAL COVERAGE PATTERN OF
CONVECTION AS MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 90S EACH
AFTERNOON AND LOW 70S EACH NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BECOME MORE
DEFINED ON SATURDAY AS IT MOVES OFF SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SWATH OF THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL AND SURROUNDING AREAS WITH WEAK SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN TO
COMMENCE WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE ATLANTIC STATES WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY ALONG WEST AND EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE BACK NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FROM 18Z-
23Z AND COULD IMPACT SSI AND THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO CURRENTLY INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP ONSHORE
WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA
DURING EVENING WIND SURGES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL THEN BUILD WESTWARD INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRODUCING A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
AND POSSIBLE CAUTION CONDITIONS DURING EVENING WIND SURGES. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FEET OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA TODAY AND WILL FILTER INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXPECT
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA...WITH 30 TO 35 PERCENT EXPECTED FOR
INLAND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...AND MOISTURE LEVELS/ERC VALUES WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL MOISTEN CONDITIONS IN
THE COASTAL COUNTIES BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  68  92  73 /   0  10  20  30
SSI  87  76  87  78 /  20  10  30  40
JAX  91  71  89  75 /  20  10  20  30
SGJ  90  75  87  76 /  20  10  20  30
GNV  93  69  91  72 /  10  10  20  20
OCF  93  70  92  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/GUILLET









000
FXUS62 KJAX 300842
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
442 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR PERSISTS AT INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY...

.CURRENTLY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE (1012 MILLIBARS) LOCATED
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST
OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE
FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...CREATING A DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY. WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS
OVER COASTAL GLYNN AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT...BUT ACTIVITY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. TEMPERATURES AT 08Z
RANGED FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY TO THE UPPER 70S IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 70 IN
COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRODUCING ENOUGH
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PRECLUDE ANY THREAT OF RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES AT OUR CLIMATE SITES THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 4
CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY...WITH A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR
MASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO
PUSH INLAND PAST THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT RECOVERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEVELS IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR (PWAT) VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
TOWARDS SUNSET...WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.
SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR AND ARW
DEPICT ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG OR EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR/ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY
CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THROUGH A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION
BASED AROUND 800 MILLIBARS (6500 FEET) BRIEF IN DURATION.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 90S INLAND...WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE KEEPING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SURFACE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL HUMIDITY LEVELS.
ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE WILL FADE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN AS
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS INLAND...AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND...RANGING
TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MORE MOIST AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO AREA ON THURSDAY BUT STILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO ONLY
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE. FRIDAY WILL SEE A MORE NORMAL COVERAGE PATTERN OF
CONVECTION AS MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 90S EACH
AFTERNOON AND LOW 70S EACH NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BECOME MORE
DEFINED ON SATURDAY AS IT MOVES OFF SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SWATH OF THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL AND SURROUNDING AREAS WITH WEAK SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN TO
COMMENCE WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE ATLANTIC STATES WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY ALONG WEST AND EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE BACK NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FROM 18Z-
23Z AND COULD IMPACT SSI AND THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO CURRENTLY INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP ONSHORE
WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA
DURING EVENING WIND SURGES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL THEN BUILD WESTWARD INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRODUCING A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
AND POSSIBLE CAUTION CONDITIONS DURING EVENING WIND SURGES. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FEET OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA TODAY AND WILL FILTER INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXPECT
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA...WITH 30 TO 35 PERCENT EXPECTED FOR
INLAND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...AND MOISTURE LEVELS/ERC VALUES WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL MOISTEN CONDITIONS IN
THE COASTAL COUNTIES BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  68  92  73 /   0  10  20  30
SSI  87  76  87  78 /  20  10  30  40
JAX  91  71  89  75 /  20  10  20  30
SGJ  90  75  87  76 /  20  10  20  30
GNV  93  69  91  72 /  10  10  20  20
OCF  93  70  92  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/GUILLET








000
FXUS62 KJAX 300038
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
838 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
LAST CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. AN INCREDIBLY DRY PATTERN
FOR JULY IN THE DEEP SOUTH. MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT SHALLOW GROUND FOG-
MIST INLAND TOWARD DAWN. ONLY CHANCE OF CONVECTION TOMORROW WOULD
BE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN BREAK THE CAP ALONG
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FRONT. A FEW OF OUR RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR
JULY 30TH MAY BE IN JEOPARDY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY AT KJAX. FOR
REFERENCE HERE THEY ARE...

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR JULY 30TH
JAX68/1894
GNV 62/1924
AMG59/1954
SSI69/1962

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR AT ALL FIELDS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT VQQ AND GNV EARLY WED MORNING AFTER 08Z.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES WITH WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT
AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS:LOW RISK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  65  93  71 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  92  75  87  75 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  93  68  90  73 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  91  74  89  74 /  20  10  10  10
GNV  94  67  91  70 /  10  10   0   0
OCF  94  69  92  71 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/CORDERO/MCALLISTER








000
FXUS62 KJAX 300038
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
838 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
LAST CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. AN INCREDIBLY DRY PATTERN
FOR JULY IN THE DEEP SOUTH. MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT SHALLOW GROUND FOG-
MIST INLAND TOWARD DAWN. ONLY CHANCE OF CONVECTION TOMORROW WOULD
BE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN BREAK THE CAP ALONG
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FRONT. A FEW OF OUR RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR
JULY 30TH MAY BE IN JEOPARDY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY AT KJAX. FOR
REFERENCE HERE THEY ARE...

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR JULY 30TH
JAX68/1894
GNV 62/1924
AMG59/1954
SSI69/1962

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR AT ALL FIELDS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT VQQ AND GNV EARLY WED MORNING AFTER 08Z.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES WITH WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT
AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS:LOW RISK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  65  93  71 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  92  75  87  75 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  93  68  90  73 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  91  74  89  74 /  20  10  10  10
GNV  94  67  91  70 /  10  10   0   0
OCF  94  69  92  71 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/CORDERO/MCALLISTER







000
FXUS62 KJAX 300038
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
838 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
LAST CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. AN INCREDIBLY DRY PATTERN
FOR JULY IN THE DEEP SOUTH. MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT SHALLOW GROUND FOG-
MIST INLAND TOWARD DAWN. ONLY CHANCE OF CONVECTION TOMORROW WOULD
BE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN BREAK THE CAP ALONG
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FRONT. A FEW OF OUR RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR
JULY 30TH MAY BE IN JEOPARDY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY AT KJAX. FOR
REFERENCE HERE THEY ARE...

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR JULY 30TH
JAX68/1894
GNV 62/1924
AMG59/1954
SSI69/1962

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR AT ALL FIELDS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT VQQ AND GNV EARLY WED MORNING AFTER 08Z.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES WITH WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT
AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS:LOW RISK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  65  93  71 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  92  75  87  75 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  93  68  90  73 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  91  74  89  74 /  20  10  10  10
GNV  94  67  91  70 /  10  10   0   0
OCF  94  69  92  71 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/CORDERO/MCALLISTER







000
FXUS62 KJAX 291801
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
201 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014


...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CONVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF A COOL FRONT PRESSING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FL WILL SKIRT
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A GNV-SGJ LINE. THE HRRR INITIALIZED WELL ALL DAY WITH PRECIP
TRENDS...AND LEANED TOWARD IT WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING SOUTH OF JAX FOCUSED NEAR AND EAST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN WHERE SHALLOW SFC CONVERGENCE WILL COINCIDE WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY WHERE SFC DEW PTS WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
AND TEMPS WERE NEAR 90. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SE GA AND THE I-10
CORRIDOR OF N FL...DRY AIR MIXED DOWN DUE TO INSOLATION AND DEW
PTS DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER INLAND SE GA TO THE MID
60S ACROSS NE FL EARLY THIS AFTN. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...LEANED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BELOW CLIMO VALUES...EVEN NEAR RECORD
VALUES AT JAX...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S RIVER
BASIN/COAST. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT GIVEN
DRIER AIR ALOFT AND COOLER SFC TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR JULY 30TH
JAX68/1894
GNV 62/1924
AMG59/1954
SSI69/1962

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1 INCH. EXPECT
ANOTHER DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S PRODUCING LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. MOISTURE
WILL START TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PM
SEABREEZE CONVECTION. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AMPLIFY UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SE AND AFFECT MAINLY SE GA ON FRIDAY WITH POPS RETURNING TO
AT LEAST CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING WILL
SHARPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE AXIS
LOCATED JUST WEST OF OUR REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW...WITH A CONTINUED WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT PROMOTING ACTIVE SEA BREEZES. EXPECT A RETURN TO
A SEASONABLY WET WEATHER PATTERN...WITH HIGH-END CHANCE DIURNAL
POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR LESS A BRIEF PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT VQQ AND GNV EARLY WED MORNING AFTER 07Z.
REMOVED VCSH FROM ALL TERMINALS WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES WITH WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. EASTERLY FLOW 10 KTS
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL LATE WED THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NE...WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. BY THE WEEKEND SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP WITH AN INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND LIKELY AGAIN ON WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND COLD
FRONT WILL LOWER RHS`S INTO THE 30S WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA SO
NO HEADLINES. RH`S WILL START TO INCREASE THURSDAY ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  93  71  93 /   0  10  10  20
SSI  75  87  75  87 /   0  10  10  20
JAX  68  90  73  90 /   0  10  10  20
SGJ  74  89  74  87 /  20  10  10  20
GNV  67  91  70  91 /  10   0   0  20
OCF  69  92  71  91 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/ZIBURA







000
FXUS62 KJAX 291801
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
201 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014


...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CONVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF A COOL FRONT PRESSING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FL WILL SKIRT
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A GNV-SGJ LINE. THE HRRR INITIALIZED WELL ALL DAY WITH PRECIP
TRENDS...AND LEANED TOWARD IT WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING SOUTH OF JAX FOCUSED NEAR AND EAST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN WHERE SHALLOW SFC CONVERGENCE WILL COINCIDE WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY WHERE SFC DEW PTS WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
AND TEMPS WERE NEAR 90. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SE GA AND THE I-10
CORRIDOR OF N FL...DRY AIR MIXED DOWN DUE TO INSOLATION AND DEW
PTS DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER INLAND SE GA TO THE MID
60S ACROSS NE FL EARLY THIS AFTN. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...LEANED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BELOW CLIMO VALUES...EVEN NEAR RECORD
VALUES AT JAX...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S RIVER
BASIN/COAST. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT GIVEN
DRIER AIR ALOFT AND COOLER SFC TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR JULY 30TH
JAX68/1894
GNV 62/1924
AMG59/1954
SSI69/1962

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1 INCH. EXPECT
ANOTHER DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S PRODUCING LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. MOISTURE
WILL START TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PM
SEABREEZE CONVECTION. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AMPLIFY UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SE AND AFFECT MAINLY SE GA ON FRIDAY WITH POPS RETURNING TO
AT LEAST CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING WILL
SHARPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE AXIS
LOCATED JUST WEST OF OUR REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW...WITH A CONTINUED WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT PROMOTING ACTIVE SEA BREEZES. EXPECT A RETURN TO
A SEASONABLY WET WEATHER PATTERN...WITH HIGH-END CHANCE DIURNAL
POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR LESS A BRIEF PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT VQQ AND GNV EARLY WED MORNING AFTER 07Z.
REMOVED VCSH FROM ALL TERMINALS WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES WITH WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. EASTERLY FLOW 10 KTS
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL LATE WED THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NE...WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. BY THE WEEKEND SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP WITH AN INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND LIKELY AGAIN ON WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND COLD
FRONT WILL LOWER RHS`S INTO THE 30S WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA SO
NO HEADLINES. RH`S WILL START TO INCREASE THURSDAY ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  93  71  93 /   0  10  10  20
SSI  75  87  75  87 /   0  10  10  20
JAX  68  90  73  90 /   0  10  10  20
SGJ  74  89  74  87 /  20  10  10  20
GNV  67  91  70  91 /  10   0   0  20
OCF  69  92  71  91 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/ZIBURA







000
FXUS62 KJAX 291801
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
201 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014


...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CONVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF A COOL FRONT PRESSING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FL WILL SKIRT
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A GNV-SGJ LINE. THE HRRR INITIALIZED WELL ALL DAY WITH PRECIP
TRENDS...AND LEANED TOWARD IT WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING SOUTH OF JAX FOCUSED NEAR AND EAST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN WHERE SHALLOW SFC CONVERGENCE WILL COINCIDE WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY WHERE SFC DEW PTS WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
AND TEMPS WERE NEAR 90. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SE GA AND THE I-10
CORRIDOR OF N FL...DRY AIR MIXED DOWN DUE TO INSOLATION AND DEW
PTS DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER INLAND SE GA TO THE MID
60S ACROSS NE FL EARLY THIS AFTN. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...LEANED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BELOW CLIMO VALUES...EVEN NEAR RECORD
VALUES AT JAX...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S RIVER
BASIN/COAST. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT GIVEN
DRIER AIR ALOFT AND COOLER SFC TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR JULY 30TH
JAX68/1894
GNV 62/1924
AMG59/1954
SSI69/1962

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1 INCH. EXPECT
ANOTHER DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S PRODUCING LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. MOISTURE
WILL START TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PM
SEABREEZE CONVECTION. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AMPLIFY UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SE AND AFFECT MAINLY SE GA ON FRIDAY WITH POPS RETURNING TO
AT LEAST CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING WILL
SHARPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE AXIS
LOCATED JUST WEST OF OUR REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW...WITH A CONTINUED WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT PROMOTING ACTIVE SEA BREEZES. EXPECT A RETURN TO
A SEASONABLY WET WEATHER PATTERN...WITH HIGH-END CHANCE DIURNAL
POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR LESS A BRIEF PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT VQQ AND GNV EARLY WED MORNING AFTER 07Z.
REMOVED VCSH FROM ALL TERMINALS WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES WITH WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. EASTERLY FLOW 10 KTS
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL LATE WED THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NE...WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. BY THE WEEKEND SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP WITH AN INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND LIKELY AGAIN ON WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND COLD
FRONT WILL LOWER RHS`S INTO THE 30S WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA SO
NO HEADLINES. RH`S WILL START TO INCREASE THURSDAY ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  93  71  93 /   0  10  10  20
SSI  75  87  75  87 /   0  10  10  20
JAX  68  90  73  90 /   0  10  10  20
SGJ  74  89  74  87 /  20  10  10  20
GNV  67  91  70  91 /  10   0   0  20
OCF  69  92  71  91 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/ZIBURA








000
FXUS62 KJAX 291342
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
942 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...CONTINUED WARMTH BUT DRIER TODAY...

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF MARION COUNTY THIS
MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NW. DOUGLAS GA
REPORTED A DEW PT OF 63 WITH JAX AT 70. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE 12Z JAX RAOB SHOWED STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION AT
600 MB AND ABOVE...WHICH WILL GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTION TODAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT NOT QUITE AT HOT AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...WITH TEMPS ON TRACK TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND TO
LOW 90/NEAR 90 COAST UNDER A WARM WLY FLOW. AS TEMPS WARM FURTHER
THROUGH THE DAY...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN. UPDATED WITH MIXING
TOOLS AND EXTRACTED DEW PTS IN THE MID 50S OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND
SE GA TO LOW 60S AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10 CORRIDOR OVER NE
FL...WITH LOW 70S STILL GENERALLY FROM GNV-SGJ SOUTHWARD. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING PRECIP N OF GNV-SGJ. THE HRRR
INITIALIZED WELL WITH PRECIP THIS MORNING WEST OF CEDAR KEY...AND
THEN ADVERTISES THE BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTN GENERALLY FROM GNV
TO SGJ SOUTHWARD AS WEAK CONVERGENCE AND BEST MOISTURE FOCUS
ACROSS THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN SOUTH OF JAX. WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS...WHICH WILL KEEP METRO JAX
NORTHWARD MOSTLY DRY TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPDATED THE TAFS
TO REMOVE MORNING VCSH WITH CONVECTION MOST LIKELY SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTN NEAR GNV. DRY AIR EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN WHICH WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AND REFINED VCTS AT GNV TO VCSH. COULD SEE
SOME WNW GUSTS MIDDAY BETWEEN 15-20 KTS. TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME
FOG AND STRATUS WITH RECENT HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT.

&&

.MARINE...COMBINED NEAR AND OFFSHORE LEGS ONCE AGAIN WITH
PREVAILING NW WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS MORNING TRAILING THE FRONT
DECREASING TO SW THIS AFTN 10 KT OR LESS. COMBINED SEAS 2-4 FT. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
MEANDERS OVER THE AREA AND BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  65  94  70 /   0  10  10  10
SSI  92  75  88  76 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  93  70  91  73 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  91  74  89  76 /  20  20  10  10
GNV  94  68  93  70 /  20  10  10  10
OCF  94  70  94  71 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER







000
FXUS62 KJAX 291342
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
942 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...CONTINUED WARMTH BUT DRIER TODAY...

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF MARION COUNTY THIS
MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NW. DOUGLAS GA
REPORTED A DEW PT OF 63 WITH JAX AT 70. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE 12Z JAX RAOB SHOWED STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION AT
600 MB AND ABOVE...WHICH WILL GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTION TODAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT NOT QUITE AT HOT AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...WITH TEMPS ON TRACK TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND TO
LOW 90/NEAR 90 COAST UNDER A WARM WLY FLOW. AS TEMPS WARM FURTHER
THROUGH THE DAY...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN. UPDATED WITH MIXING
TOOLS AND EXTRACTED DEW PTS IN THE MID 50S OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND
SE GA TO LOW 60S AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10 CORRIDOR OVER NE
FL...WITH LOW 70S STILL GENERALLY FROM GNV-SGJ SOUTHWARD. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING PRECIP N OF GNV-SGJ. THE HRRR
INITIALIZED WELL WITH PRECIP THIS MORNING WEST OF CEDAR KEY...AND
THEN ADVERTISES THE BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTN GENERALLY FROM GNV
TO SGJ SOUTHWARD AS WEAK CONVERGENCE AND BEST MOISTURE FOCUS
ACROSS THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN SOUTH OF JAX. WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS...WHICH WILL KEEP METRO JAX
NORTHWARD MOSTLY DRY TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPDATED THE TAFS
TO REMOVE MORNING VCSH WITH CONVECTION MOST LIKELY SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTN NEAR GNV. DRY AIR EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN WHICH WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AND REFINED VCTS AT GNV TO VCSH. COULD SEE
SOME WNW GUSTS MIDDAY BETWEEN 15-20 KTS. TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME
FOG AND STRATUS WITH RECENT HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT.

&&

.MARINE...COMBINED NEAR AND OFFSHORE LEGS ONCE AGAIN WITH
PREVAILING NW WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS MORNING TRAILING THE FRONT
DECREASING TO SW THIS AFTN 10 KT OR LESS. COMBINED SEAS 2-4 FT. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
MEANDERS OVER THE AREA AND BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  65  94  70 /   0  10  10  10
SSI  92  75  88  76 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  93  70  91  73 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  91  74  89  76 /  20  20  10  10
GNV  94  68  93  70 /  20  10  10  10
OCF  94  70  94  71 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER








000
FXUS62 KJAX 290918
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...NOT AS HOT TODAY...

.CURRENTLY(5 AM)...WEAK FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SE GA TO THE NE GULF
OF MEXICO WITH BROAD AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NE GULF
AND OFFSHORE OF THE NE FL WATERS NEAR AND AHEAD OF FRONT. RADAR
TRENDS HAVE SHOWED INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION CELLS OVER THE NE GULF
AND PARTS OF NE FL AS THE FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES SEWD
BUT SO FAR NO THUNDER HAS OCCURRED IN NE FL. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80.

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...CERTAINLY A TRANSITION DAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT INITIALLY
LOCATED FROM EXTREME SE GA TO THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE WILL DRIFT
SEWD ALONG WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGH THE FIRST PART OF TODAY ACROSS OUR SE ZONES WHERE MODELS DEPICT
PWATS AROUND THE 1.6 TO 2 INCH RANGE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE
IN A STEADY DECREASE IN MEAN 1000-500 MB RH VALUES (AND INSTABILITY)
THROUGH THE DAY AS DEEP W-NW FLOW USHERS IN MUCH DRIER AIR. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
S OF A JAX-GNV LINE WITH BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP FROM NOW THROUGH
ABOUT 2 PM...AND THEN STEADILY DROPPING THEREAFTER AS AIRMASS DRIES
OUT. WHILE SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE REALIZED
FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD ACROSS OUR SE ZONES DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF
ATLC SEA BREEZE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE LACKING WITH
DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT TO POSSIBLY AROUND THE 64 TO 66 DEG RANGE NEAR
THE JAX METRO AREA AND PWATS OF ONLY 1.25 INCHES. WE HAVE NO POPS
TODAY FOR SE GA DUE TO MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THERE AS DEWPOINTS BOTTOM OUT TO UNSEASONABLE MID 50S
AROUND ALMA. HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT AS HOT AS PRIOR DAYS...BUT STILL
AROUND 91-95 WITH HEAT INDICES FOR THE MOST PART AT OR BELOW 100.

TONIGHT...ISOLD LINGERING CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING FROM MARION TO
PUTNAM TO FLAGLER COUNTIES THEN QUICKLY FADE AFTER SUNSET. A MOSTLY
CLEAR TO BRIEFLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKY EXPECTED WITH MINS AT OR BELOW
NORMAL WITH MID/UPPER 60S IN SE GA INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY TO ABOUT
GNV AND NEAR 70-72 OVER REMINDER PARTS OF NE FL.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER OUR
REGION...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VAPOR (PWAT) VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 1-1.25 INCHES...OR NEARLY
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW LATE JULY CLIMATOLOGY. AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA
AND THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY...WHILE A WEAK SEA BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND TO NEAR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AND INCREASES AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BOOST TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND AND NEAR 90 AT THE COAST...BUT LOW HUMIDITY
WILL PRECLUDE ANY HEAT INDEX CONCERNS. FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND...WITH
A WEAK ONSHORE WIND KEEPING LOWS IN THE 70S FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN SITUATED TO OUR NORTH...WITH
DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING PREVAILING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
UNITED STATES. A WEAK ONSHORE WIND REGIME WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL
MOISTENING TREND...BUT WE ARE EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE THAT WILL
PROGRESS INLAND TOWARDS THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.
DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY BLOSSOM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURS NIGHT
AS ACTIVITY QUICKLY FADES TOWARDS SUNSET OVER LAND. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70 INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON FRI AND
SAT...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE LOCATED JUST WEST OF OUR REGION.
THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH
A CONTINUED WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY PROMOTING ACTIVE
SEA BREEZES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. EXPECT A RETURN TO A SEASONABLY WET
WEATHER PATTERN...WITH HIGH-END CHANCE DIURNAL POPS USED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST GRIDS. THIS PATTERN NORMALLY PROMOTES A MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING AS THIS ACTIVITY MEETS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE NEAR THE ST. JOHNS BASIN/I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS ATLANTIC RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE FL PENINSULA TOWARDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR CLIMO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS RAIN CHANCES AND
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...OCNL MVFR CIGS ANTICIPATED AROUND GNV AND VQQ WITH VCSH
NEAR GNV AS WELL THROUGH MID MORNING. CONVECTION RAIN CHANCES LOOK
TOO MINIMAL TO HAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN VCSH/VCTS TODAY...WITH BEST
CHANCE OF TSTMS NEAR GNV. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 12Z AND
WINDS WILL BE WLY AROUND 10 KT WITH LOWERING SPEEDS IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS ATLC SEA BREEZE HELPS SHIFT WINDS TO SELY ALONG
THE COAST FOR CRG AND SSI. FOR TONIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...WLY FLOW AROUND 15-20 KT EARLY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME ONSHORE NEAR
THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN BECOME DIFFUSE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES DEVELOP N OF THE AREA WED
AND THU WHILE WEAK LOW PRES FORMS OVER INLAND NRN FL. WINDS BECOME
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT AND THEN TURNING ONSHORE ON WED AND
THU WHILE SLOWLY INCREASING. ON FRI AND SAT...BROAD LOW PRES IN THE
NRN GULF AND WEAK HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NE WILL PRODUCE GENERAL
S-SE FLOW. THIS LATTER TRANSITION COULD POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR
EVENTUAL INCREASE IN MEAN SEA HEIGHTS AND ESE-SE SWELLS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: PREVAILING OFFSHORE FLOW AND SMALL ESE SWELL OF ABOUT
1 FOOT WILL KEEP RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY LOW TODAY. WEDNESDAY...A
SIMILAR RISK...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF RIPS AS WINDS
TURN ENE DURING THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO SOUTHEAST GA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
FALLING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT AT INLAND LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 35-40 PERCENT ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS RISING
INTO THE LOW AND MID 90S WILL CREATE ELEVATED DISPERSION INDICES
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THIS UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR
MASS WILL PLUNGE ALL THE WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL ON WED...WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES FALLING TO 25-30 PERCENT IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GA...AND 30-35 PERCENT IN INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 10 MPH AND FUEL MOISTURE/ERC
VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE THUS NOT EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY MOISTEN ON THURS...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  65  94  70 /   0  10  10  10
SSI  92  75  88  76 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  93  70  91  73 /  20  10  10  10
SGJ  91  74  89  76 /  30  20  10  10
GNV  94  68  93  70 /  30  10  10  10
OCF  94  70  94  71 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/NELSON







000
FXUS62 KJAX 290918
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...NOT AS HOT TODAY...

.CURRENTLY(5 AM)...WEAK FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SE GA TO THE NE GULF
OF MEXICO WITH BROAD AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NE GULF
AND OFFSHORE OF THE NE FL WATERS NEAR AND AHEAD OF FRONT. RADAR
TRENDS HAVE SHOWED INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION CELLS OVER THE NE GULF
AND PARTS OF NE FL AS THE FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES SEWD
BUT SO FAR NO THUNDER HAS OCCURRED IN NE FL. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80.

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...CERTAINLY A TRANSITION DAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT INITIALLY
LOCATED FROM EXTREME SE GA TO THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE WILL DRIFT
SEWD ALONG WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGH THE FIRST PART OF TODAY ACROSS OUR SE ZONES WHERE MODELS DEPICT
PWATS AROUND THE 1.6 TO 2 INCH RANGE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE
IN A STEADY DECREASE IN MEAN 1000-500 MB RH VALUES (AND INSTABILITY)
THROUGH THE DAY AS DEEP W-NW FLOW USHERS IN MUCH DRIER AIR. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
S OF A JAX-GNV LINE WITH BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP FROM NOW THROUGH
ABOUT 2 PM...AND THEN STEADILY DROPPING THEREAFTER AS AIRMASS DRIES
OUT. WHILE SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE REALIZED
FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD ACROSS OUR SE ZONES DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF
ATLC SEA BREEZE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE LACKING WITH
DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT TO POSSIBLY AROUND THE 64 TO 66 DEG RANGE NEAR
THE JAX METRO AREA AND PWATS OF ONLY 1.25 INCHES. WE HAVE NO POPS
TODAY FOR SE GA DUE TO MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THERE AS DEWPOINTS BOTTOM OUT TO UNSEASONABLE MID 50S
AROUND ALMA. HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT AS HOT AS PRIOR DAYS...BUT STILL
AROUND 91-95 WITH HEAT INDICES FOR THE MOST PART AT OR BELOW 100.

TONIGHT...ISOLD LINGERING CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING FROM MARION TO
PUTNAM TO FLAGLER COUNTIES THEN QUICKLY FADE AFTER SUNSET. A MOSTLY
CLEAR TO BRIEFLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKY EXPECTED WITH MINS AT OR BELOW
NORMAL WITH MID/UPPER 60S IN SE GA INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY TO ABOUT
GNV AND NEAR 70-72 OVER REMINDER PARTS OF NE FL.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER OUR
REGION...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VAPOR (PWAT) VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 1-1.25 INCHES...OR NEARLY
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW LATE JULY CLIMATOLOGY. AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA
AND THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY...WHILE A WEAK SEA BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND TO NEAR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AND INCREASES AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BOOST TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND AND NEAR 90 AT THE COAST...BUT LOW HUMIDITY
WILL PRECLUDE ANY HEAT INDEX CONCERNS. FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND...WITH
A WEAK ONSHORE WIND KEEPING LOWS IN THE 70S FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN SITUATED TO OUR NORTH...WITH
DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING PREVAILING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
UNITED STATES. A WEAK ONSHORE WIND REGIME WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL
MOISTENING TREND...BUT WE ARE EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE THAT WILL
PROGRESS INLAND TOWARDS THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.
DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY BLOSSOM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURS NIGHT
AS ACTIVITY QUICKLY FADES TOWARDS SUNSET OVER LAND. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70 INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON FRI AND
SAT...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE LOCATED JUST WEST OF OUR REGION.
THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH
A CONTINUED WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY PROMOTING ACTIVE
SEA BREEZES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. EXPECT A RETURN TO A SEASONABLY WET
WEATHER PATTERN...WITH HIGH-END CHANCE DIURNAL POPS USED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST GRIDS. THIS PATTERN NORMALLY PROMOTES A MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING AS THIS ACTIVITY MEETS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE NEAR THE ST. JOHNS BASIN/I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS ATLANTIC RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE FL PENINSULA TOWARDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR CLIMO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS RAIN CHANCES AND
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...OCNL MVFR CIGS ANTICIPATED AROUND GNV AND VQQ WITH VCSH
NEAR GNV AS WELL THROUGH MID MORNING. CONVECTION RAIN CHANCES LOOK
TOO MINIMAL TO HAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN VCSH/VCTS TODAY...WITH BEST
CHANCE OF TSTMS NEAR GNV. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 12Z AND
WINDS WILL BE WLY AROUND 10 KT WITH LOWERING SPEEDS IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS ATLC SEA BREEZE HELPS SHIFT WINDS TO SELY ALONG
THE COAST FOR CRG AND SSI. FOR TONIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...WLY FLOW AROUND 15-20 KT EARLY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME ONSHORE NEAR
THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN BECOME DIFFUSE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES DEVELOP N OF THE AREA WED
AND THU WHILE WEAK LOW PRES FORMS OVER INLAND NRN FL. WINDS BECOME
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT AND THEN TURNING ONSHORE ON WED AND
THU WHILE SLOWLY INCREASING. ON FRI AND SAT...BROAD LOW PRES IN THE
NRN GULF AND WEAK HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NE WILL PRODUCE GENERAL
S-SE FLOW. THIS LATTER TRANSITION COULD POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR
EVENTUAL INCREASE IN MEAN SEA HEIGHTS AND ESE-SE SWELLS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: PREVAILING OFFSHORE FLOW AND SMALL ESE SWELL OF ABOUT
1 FOOT WILL KEEP RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY LOW TODAY. WEDNESDAY...A
SIMILAR RISK...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF RIPS AS WINDS
TURN ENE DURING THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO SOUTHEAST GA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
FALLING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT AT INLAND LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 35-40 PERCENT ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS RISING
INTO THE LOW AND MID 90S WILL CREATE ELEVATED DISPERSION INDICES
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THIS UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR
MASS WILL PLUNGE ALL THE WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL ON WED...WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES FALLING TO 25-30 PERCENT IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GA...AND 30-35 PERCENT IN INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 10 MPH AND FUEL MOISTURE/ERC
VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE THUS NOT EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY MOISTEN ON THURS...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  65  94  70 /   0  10  10  10
SSI  92  75  88  76 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  93  70  91  73 /  20  10  10  10
SGJ  91  74  89  76 /  30  20  10  10
GNV  94  68  93  70 /  30  10  10  10
OCF  94  70  94  71 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/NELSON






000
FXUS62 KJAX 290104
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
904 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH...JUST NORTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER MID-EVENING. PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE
DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...THUS HAVE CANCELLED THE
SEVERE TSTM WATCH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY CONTINUES CLOSE
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM INTERIOR SE GA TO JUST WEST
OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
ACTIVITY DECREASING A LITTLE...BUT AT LEAST SOME ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE IN SE GA THIS EVENING MOVING INTO NORTHERN FL BY
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO HANG UP. WILL USE ISOLATED
TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST OF NE FL LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASE LATE SOUTH OF JAX AS THE BOUNDARY
HANGS UP. PRECIP WILL END ACROSS MOST OF SE GA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE SOUTH. GIVEN SOME RESIDUAL BULK
LAYER SHEAR...AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS SE GA INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. CLOUDS
AND SOME WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GA TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT.
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS TONIGHT WILL
BE ISOLATED.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT...THEN
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TUESDAY WILL BE AT KGNV.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE WATERS. WILL CONTINUE THE CAUTION FOR THE OUTER LEGS
WITH 15 KT NEARSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  90  65  93 /  30  10  10  10
SSI  76  91  74  89 /  30  10  10  10
JAX  75  92  71  92 /  20  20  10  10
SGJ  77  91  74  90 /  30  40  20  10
GNV  75  92  69  93 /  30  40  20  10
OCF  75  92  71  94 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE/WALKER








000
FXUS62 KJAX 290104
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
904 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH...JUST NORTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER MID-EVENING. PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE
DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...THUS HAVE CANCELLED THE
SEVERE TSTM WATCH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY CONTINUES CLOSE
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM INTERIOR SE GA TO JUST WEST
OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
ACTIVITY DECREASING A LITTLE...BUT AT LEAST SOME ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE IN SE GA THIS EVENING MOVING INTO NORTHERN FL BY
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO HANG UP. WILL USE ISOLATED
TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST OF NE FL LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASE LATE SOUTH OF JAX AS THE BOUNDARY
HANGS UP. PRECIP WILL END ACROSS MOST OF SE GA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE SOUTH. GIVEN SOME RESIDUAL BULK
LAYER SHEAR...AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS SE GA INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. CLOUDS
AND SOME WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GA TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT.
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS TONIGHT WILL
BE ISOLATED.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT...THEN
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TUESDAY WILL BE AT KGNV.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE WATERS. WILL CONTINUE THE CAUTION FOR THE OUTER LEGS
WITH 15 KT NEARSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  90  65  93 /  30  10  10  10
SSI  76  91  74  89 /  30  10  10  10
JAX  75  92  71  92 /  20  20  10  10
SGJ  77  91  74  90 /  30  40  20  10
GNV  75  92  69  93 /  30  40  20  10
OCF  75  92  71  94 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE/WALKER







000
FXUS62 KJAX 281846
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
246 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...HEAT ADVISORY WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTORMS...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...

SMALL QUICK MOVING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
FL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH A RECENT INCREASE IN TSTORM ACTIVITY
NOTED WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE STARTING TO SHIFT INLAND OVER
THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. STORMS OVER FL WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS THEY
TRACK OFF TOWARD THE EAST AROUND 20 MPH.

JUST NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS
STARTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT
NEARS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN THROUGH 00Z...WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SHEARED
OUT PRE- FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER NE FL.
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT IS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...AND THUS CONTINUED TO CAP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30-40%
RANGE FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A SWATH OF 50-60%
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DRY
POCKETS IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND INCREASED SHEAR...THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
DOWNBURSTS AND EVEN HAIL ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA LATE THIS AFTN
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG CELLS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE FL THROUGH THE LATE AFTN.

HEAT INDICES RANGED FROM GENERALLY BETWEEN 105-110 DEG THIS AFTN...WITH
A DRY BULB READING OF 100 DEG AT WAYCROSS TO EVEN 95 DEG AT SSI UNDER
A VERY WARM AND BREEZY WEST WIND. THE HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS REASONABLE
AND WILL LEAVE IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM EDT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
FROM THE NW TRAILING THE FRONT TONIGHT OVER OUR EXTREME NW GA
ZONES NEAR HAZLEHURST AND PLANT HATCH WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S BY DAYBREAK TUE...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM WITH MINS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S RIVER/COAST UNDER PARTLY TO
AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSES
SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR NORTH OF THIS
FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE GREATLY LACKING BUT INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED PULSE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY. DRY UPPER LEVEL
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY
BRING AN END TO ALL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF OUR ZONES EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 60S AT MANY LOCALES WELL
INLAND...PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR INLAND GEORGIA COUNTIES.

ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH
BROAD TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SIGNIFICANT DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL SUPPRESS ACTIVITY. AS A
RESULT...MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL
MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S BUT SOME MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HUMID. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT AGAIN NOT NEARLY AS MUGGY AS RECENT
DAYS.

ON THURSDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO OUR WESTERN ZONES
AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY TO BRING A RETURN TO A
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
SEABREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

NO CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SRN EXTENT OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TO SRN MS
VALLEY WHICH WILL TRANSITION DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW TO THE SW. AT
THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE AND TEMPS ALOFT MAY
COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS ALL INDICATES A RETURN TO A MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN...ESPECIALLY SAT THROUGH MON WITH THE W
COAST SEA BREEZE THE DOMINATE BOUNDARY HELPING TO FOSTER AT LEAST
SCATTERED DAILY CONVECTION. MAX/MIN TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME HEAVIER PRECIP PERIODS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTN AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH MOST CLOUD BASES JUST ABOVE 3 KFT. COULD SEE TEMPO MVFR CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER AND ISOLATED TS ACTIVITY AND ADVERTISED
VCSH ALL ZONES BETWEEN NOW AND 20Z WITH TEMPO MVFR. SSI WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF AN EVENING TS AND CONTINUED WITH VCTS AT 22Z.
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NOT EXPECTED WITH SW WINDS PREVAILING EVEN
AT SSI AND CRG. OVERNIGHT FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE
TERMINALS AND POSITION NEAR THE FL-GA STATE LINE EARLY TUE
MORNING. THIS COULD BRING SOME LOW STRATUS TO THE FL TAF
SITES...AND FOR NOW INDICATED SCT 1-1.5 KFT IN THE TAFS WITH VCSH
AROUND 07-13Z. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP TUE WILL BE AT GNV AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...SW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
FRONTAL ZONES SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. WILL CARRY SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION OFFSHORE LEGS WITH A SOLID 15 KTS NEARSHORE. CAPPED SEAS A
3-4 FT OFFSHORE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE BASED ON OFFSHORE FLOW. WINDS
WILL RELAX LATE TUE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS WED-FRI WITH EASTERLY FLOW 10-15 KTS.
WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY NEXT WEEKEND AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF
COAST REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...MORNING LOWS AT ALMA (AMG) AND GAINESVILLE (GNV) SET
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR THE DATE.

SITE NEW RECORD OLD RECORD/YEAR
AMG 78 76/2011
GNV7776/1992

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  90  65  93 /  60   0  10  10
SSI  76  91  74  89 /  50  10  10  10
JAX  75  92  71  92 /  30  30  10  10
SGJ  77  91  74  90 /  30  50  20  10
GNV  75  92  69  93 /  30  50  20  10
OCF  75  92  71  94 /  30  60  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-CLAY-
     COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-HAMILTON-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-
     SUWANNEE.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/








000
FXUS62 KJAX 281846
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
246 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...HEAT ADVISORY WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTORMS...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...

SMALL QUICK MOVING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
FL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH A RECENT INCREASE IN TSTORM ACTIVITY
NOTED WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE STARTING TO SHIFT INLAND OVER
THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. STORMS OVER FL WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS THEY
TRACK OFF TOWARD THE EAST AROUND 20 MPH.

JUST NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS
STARTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT
NEARS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN THROUGH 00Z...WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SHEARED
OUT PRE- FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER NE FL.
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT IS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...AND THUS CONTINUED TO CAP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30-40%
RANGE FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A SWATH OF 50-60%
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DRY
POCKETS IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND INCREASED SHEAR...THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
DOWNBURSTS AND EVEN HAIL ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA LATE THIS AFTN
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG CELLS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE FL THROUGH THE LATE AFTN.

HEAT INDICES RANGED FROM GENERALLY BETWEEN 105-110 DEG THIS AFTN...WITH
A DRY BULB READING OF 100 DEG AT WAYCROSS TO EVEN 95 DEG AT SSI UNDER
A VERY WARM AND BREEZY WEST WIND. THE HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS REASONABLE
AND WILL LEAVE IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM EDT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
FROM THE NW TRAILING THE FRONT TONIGHT OVER OUR EXTREME NW GA
ZONES NEAR HAZLEHURST AND PLANT HATCH WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S BY DAYBREAK TUE...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM WITH MINS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S RIVER/COAST UNDER PARTLY TO
AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSES
SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR NORTH OF THIS
FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE GREATLY LACKING BUT INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED PULSE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY. DRY UPPER LEVEL
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY
BRING AN END TO ALL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF OUR ZONES EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 60S AT MANY LOCALES WELL
INLAND...PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR INLAND GEORGIA COUNTIES.

ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH
BROAD TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SIGNIFICANT DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL SUPPRESS ACTIVITY. AS A
RESULT...MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL
MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S BUT SOME MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HUMID. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT AGAIN NOT NEARLY AS MUGGY AS RECENT
DAYS.

ON THURSDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO OUR WESTERN ZONES
AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY TO BRING A RETURN TO A
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
SEABREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

NO CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SRN EXTENT OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TO SRN MS
VALLEY WHICH WILL TRANSITION DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW TO THE SW. AT
THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE AND TEMPS ALOFT MAY
COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS ALL INDICATES A RETURN TO A MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN...ESPECIALLY SAT THROUGH MON WITH THE W
COAST SEA BREEZE THE DOMINATE BOUNDARY HELPING TO FOSTER AT LEAST
SCATTERED DAILY CONVECTION. MAX/MIN TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME HEAVIER PRECIP PERIODS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTN AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH MOST CLOUD BASES JUST ABOVE 3 KFT. COULD SEE TEMPO MVFR CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER AND ISOLATED TS ACTIVITY AND ADVERTISED
VCSH ALL ZONES BETWEEN NOW AND 20Z WITH TEMPO MVFR. SSI WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF AN EVENING TS AND CONTINUED WITH VCTS AT 22Z.
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NOT EXPECTED WITH SW WINDS PREVAILING EVEN
AT SSI AND CRG. OVERNIGHT FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE
TERMINALS AND POSITION NEAR THE FL-GA STATE LINE EARLY TUE
MORNING. THIS COULD BRING SOME LOW STRATUS TO THE FL TAF
SITES...AND FOR NOW INDICATED SCT 1-1.5 KFT IN THE TAFS WITH VCSH
AROUND 07-13Z. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP TUE WILL BE AT GNV AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...SW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
FRONTAL ZONES SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. WILL CARRY SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION OFFSHORE LEGS WITH A SOLID 15 KTS NEARSHORE. CAPPED SEAS A
3-4 FT OFFSHORE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE BASED ON OFFSHORE FLOW. WINDS
WILL RELAX LATE TUE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS WED-FRI WITH EASTERLY FLOW 10-15 KTS.
WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY NEXT WEEKEND AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF
COAST REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...MORNING LOWS AT ALMA (AMG) AND GAINESVILLE (GNV) SET
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR THE DATE.

SITE NEW RECORD OLD RECORD/YEAR
AMG 78 76/2011
GNV7776/1992

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  90  65  93 /  60   0  10  10
SSI  76  91  74  89 /  50  10  10  10
JAX  75  92  71  92 /  30  30  10  10
SGJ  77  91  74  90 /  30  50  20  10
GNV  75  92  69  93 /  30  50  20  10
OCF  75  92  71  94 /  30  60  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-CLAY-
     COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-HAMILTON-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-
     SUWANNEE.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/









000
FXUS62 KJAX 281336
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
936 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...HEAT ADVISORY AND SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SE GA...

...RECORD MAX MINS THIS MORNING AT GNV AND AMG...

.UPDATE...A MUGGY HUMID START TO THE DAY WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AND A LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF OF THE WARM GOMEX.
RECORD MAX MIN TEMPS WERE REACHED THIS MORNING:

SITE NEW RECORD PREVIOUS RECORD/YEAR
GNV 77 76/1992
AMG 78 76/2011

BOTH JAX AND SSI CAME WITHIN 1 DEG OF TYING THE RECORD MAX MIN
TEMP FOR THE DATE AT 79.

A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WERE ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER THE GULF COAST
MOVING INLAND OVER MARION COUNTY WITH INCREASED WLY FLOW AROUND
25 KTS NEAR 1000 FT AGL PER THE 12Z JAX RAOB. VISIBLE SATELLITE
ALSO SHOWED ENHANCED CU POPPING OVER THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE FL ATLANTIC COAST WHILE REMAINING MOSTLY SHALLOW IN
NATURE GIVEN STRONG MID LEVEL CAPPING AND ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY
AIR PER THE TAE/JAX RAOBS THIS MORNING.

AS AFTN APPROACHES...EXPECT MORE POPCORN SHOWERS WILL FORM ACROSS
INTERIOR SE GA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. IN ADDITION TO INCREASED
MECHANICAL FORCING...THERE HAS ALSO BEEN DEEP LAYER DESTABILIZATION
WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -7 DEG. WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 90S AND LOW/MID 70 DEW PTS...IN ADDITION TO THE SWELTERING
HEAT TODAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG AFTN
STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SE GA DURING THE LATER PART OF THE
DAY/EARLY EVENING WHERE FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST AS THE
BOUNDARY NEARS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN THROUGH 00Z. SHORT RANGE
MODELS SHOW INCREASED BULK SHEAR AND FAT CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE...SO IN ADDITION TO THE DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS ALL
ZONES TODAY DUE TO HIGH INSTABILITY AND LOW/MID LEVEL DRY
AIR...ALSO BELIEVE STORMS WILL HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
DROPPING HAIL.

850 MB TEMPS WERE NEAR -19 DEG C...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WITH INCREASED MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE 105-110 DEG RANGE FOR MOST ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR IN SHOWERS AND ISOLD
TSTORMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. BREEZY WEST WINDS 15G20KT EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...WSW WINDS 10-15 KTS TODAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. ANOTHER SCEC
EXPECTED OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  98  71  93  66 /  40  50  10  10
SSI  96  77  90  75 /  30  40  20  10
JAX  97  76  93  71 /  30  30  30  20
SGJ  96  78  91  74 /  20  30  40  40
GNV  94  75  93  70 /  30  30  30  20
OCF  94  76  93  71 /  30  30  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BAKER-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-HAMILTON-NASSAU-
     PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KJAX 281336
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
936 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...HEAT ADVISORY AND SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SE GA...

...RECORD MAX MINS THIS MORNING AT GNV AND AMG...

.UPDATE...A MUGGY HUMID START TO THE DAY WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AND A LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF OF THE WARM GOMEX.
RECORD MAX MIN TEMPS WERE REACHED THIS MORNING:

SITE NEW RECORD PREVIOUS RECORD/YEAR
GNV 77 76/1992
AMG 78 76/2011

BOTH JAX AND SSI CAME WITHIN 1 DEG OF TYING THE RECORD MAX MIN
TEMP FOR THE DATE AT 79.

A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WERE ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER THE GULF COAST
MOVING INLAND OVER MARION COUNTY WITH INCREASED WLY FLOW AROUND
25 KTS NEAR 1000 FT AGL PER THE 12Z JAX RAOB. VISIBLE SATELLITE
ALSO SHOWED ENHANCED CU POPPING OVER THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE FL ATLANTIC COAST WHILE REMAINING MOSTLY SHALLOW IN
NATURE GIVEN STRONG MID LEVEL CAPPING AND ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY
AIR PER THE TAE/JAX RAOBS THIS MORNING.

AS AFTN APPROACHES...EXPECT MORE POPCORN SHOWERS WILL FORM ACROSS
INTERIOR SE GA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. IN ADDITION TO INCREASED
MECHANICAL FORCING...THERE HAS ALSO BEEN DEEP LAYER DESTABILIZATION
WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -7 DEG. WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 90S AND LOW/MID 70 DEW PTS...IN ADDITION TO THE SWELTERING
HEAT TODAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG AFTN
STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SE GA DURING THE LATER PART OF THE
DAY/EARLY EVENING WHERE FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST AS THE
BOUNDARY NEARS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN THROUGH 00Z. SHORT RANGE
MODELS SHOW INCREASED BULK SHEAR AND FAT CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE...SO IN ADDITION TO THE DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS ALL
ZONES TODAY DUE TO HIGH INSTABILITY AND LOW/MID LEVEL DRY
AIR...ALSO BELIEVE STORMS WILL HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
DROPPING HAIL.

850 MB TEMPS WERE NEAR -19 DEG C...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WITH INCREASED MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE 105-110 DEG RANGE FOR MOST ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR IN SHOWERS AND ISOLD
TSTORMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. BREEZY WEST WINDS 15G20KT EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...WSW WINDS 10-15 KTS TODAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. ANOTHER SCEC
EXPECTED OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  98  71  93  66 /  40  50  10  10
SSI  96  77  90  75 /  30  40  20  10
JAX  97  76  93  71 /  30  30  30  20
SGJ  96  78  91  74 /  20  30  40  40
GNV  94  75  93  70 /  30  30  30  20
OCF  94  76  93  71 /  30  30  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BAKER-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-HAMILTON-NASSAU-
     PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/WALSH








000
FXUS62 KJAX 280838
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
430 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SE GA THIS AFTERNOON...

...HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SE GA AND PORTION OF NE FL FROM
1 PM TO 7 PM...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY/TONIGHT...

EARLY MORNING MINS STRUGGLING TO GET UNDER 80 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS
AND EXPECTING ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES 105 TO 110 DEGREES. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
AREAS ALONG THE I-95 AND I-10 CORRIDORS IN NE FL AND FOR ALL OF SE
GA FROM 1 TO 7 PM. THE W AND SW WINDS WILL ADVECT HEAT OUT TO THE
BEACHES AS WELL AS THERE WILL BE NO SEA BREEZE THERE TODAY. AN
APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF STORMS TO MAINLY INLAND SE GA AND THE UPPER SUWANNEE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE MUCH OF
SE GA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG INSTABILITY AND INCREASING BULK SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. HAVE RETAINED PREVIOUS
GUSTY WIND WORDING IN THE GRIDS TO MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SE GA DURING THE EVENING AND THEN STALL TO
NEAR THE STATE BORDER LATE AT NIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN (GA) ZONES LATE AT NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE MOIST W TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN A
LOW END CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS EXTREME SE GA INTO NE FL BUT NO
SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND LIMITED DYNAMICS.

.TUESDAY...COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ALONG A LINE FROM EXTREME
SE GA TO THE FL PANHANDLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SEWD WITH
ELEVATED PWAT VALUES OF 1.8 INCHES OR MORE FROM JAX TO THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AREA. SFC CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GENERATE SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY WITH A FEW STRONG PULSE STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH STORM MOTION ESE AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. MODELS HAVE
BROUGHT DRIER IN A LITTLE FASTER AND THUS HAVE TWEAKED POPS DOWN A
BIT FROM PRIOR FCST. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS LIKE GOOD RAIN CHANCES
NEAR AND S OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE. DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUN TO YIELD HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH A WEAK E COAST SEA BREEZE DUE TO PREVAILING
W-NW SFC FLOW. LOWER DEWPOINTS WORK IN FROM THE NW WITH VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND SE GA. AS SUCH...WE WIND
UP WITH MIN RH VALUES OF ABOUT 30% FROM NW OF WAYCROSS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDING
SHOWING PWATS BELOW 1 INCH AS THE DRY AIR WORKS SEWD INTO NE FL/SE
GA WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE
ERN CONUS. MORE COMFORTABLE LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER SE GA AND
SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA AND GENERALLY LOWER 70S IN NE FL.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONT BECOMES STALLED OVER CENTRAL FL WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR REMAINING OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. WEAK SFC PRES PATTERN NOTED IN
GUIDANCE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR W AND E COAST SEA BREEZES BUT BASED ON
GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15% AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LACK OF DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW
DEWPOINTS AROUND THE 58 TO 65 DEG RANGE SO HEAT INDICES ARE WELL
BELOW CRITERIA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S MOST LOCATIONS.

WED NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASES AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY
HEADS ESE TOWARD OUR AREA. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES DUE TO BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MINS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO
MID 70S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SRN EXTENT OF MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD
TO SRN MS VALLEY WHICH WILL TRANSITION DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW TO THE
SW. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE AND TEMPS ALOFT
MAY COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS ALL INDICATES A RETURN TO LOW
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY FRI
THROUGH SUN WITH THE W COAST SEA BREEZE THE DOMINATE BOUNDARY
HELPING TO FOSTER AT LEAST SCATTERED DAILY CONVECTION. MAX/MIN TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME HEAVIER PRECIP PERIODS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AND SUN DUE TO SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVE AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA.
HAVE VCTS AT SSI BEGINNING AT 20Z...AND AT JAX...CRG...VQQ AT 22Z.
HAVE VCSH AT GNV AT 22Z.   AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR LOWER
CIGS/VSBY FROM TS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ON EXACT
TIMING AND WILL LEAVE OUT TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT NIGHT (NOCTURNAL SURGE) OFFSHORE AND WILL
HAVE EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND
BECOME ONSHORE BY MID WEEK AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE WATERS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC. OF
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE LATE TODAY
INTO TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA ON TUE AND WED
WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 28-35% ACROSS INLAND AREAS FROM
SUWANNEE VALLEY NWD INTO SE GA. THESE VALUES WHILE LOW ARE STILL ABOVE
ANY RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  98  71  93  66 /  40  40  10  10
SSI  96  77  90  75 /  30  30  20  10
JAX  97  76  93  71 /  20  30  30  20
SGJ  96  78  91  74 /  20  30  40  40
GNV  94  75  93  70 /  20  30  30  20
OCF  94  76  93  71 /  20  30  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BAKER-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-HAMILTON-NASSAU-
     PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS







000
FXUS62 KJAX 280838
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
430 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SE GA THIS AFTERNOON...

...HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SE GA AND PORTION OF NE FL FROM
1 PM TO 7 PM...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY/TONIGHT...

EARLY MORNING MINS STRUGGLING TO GET UNDER 80 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS
AND EXPECTING ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES 105 TO 110 DEGREES. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
AREAS ALONG THE I-95 AND I-10 CORRIDORS IN NE FL AND FOR ALL OF SE
GA FROM 1 TO 7 PM. THE W AND SW WINDS WILL ADVECT HEAT OUT TO THE
BEACHES AS WELL AS THERE WILL BE NO SEA BREEZE THERE TODAY. AN
APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF STORMS TO MAINLY INLAND SE GA AND THE UPPER SUWANNEE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE MUCH OF
SE GA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG INSTABILITY AND INCREASING BULK SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. HAVE RETAINED PREVIOUS
GUSTY WIND WORDING IN THE GRIDS TO MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SE GA DURING THE EVENING AND THEN STALL TO
NEAR THE STATE BORDER LATE AT NIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN (GA) ZONES LATE AT NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE MOIST W TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN A
LOW END CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS EXTREME SE GA INTO NE FL BUT NO
SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND LIMITED DYNAMICS.

.TUESDAY...COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ALONG A LINE FROM EXTREME
SE GA TO THE FL PANHANDLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SEWD WITH
ELEVATED PWAT VALUES OF 1.8 INCHES OR MORE FROM JAX TO THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AREA. SFC CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GENERATE SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY WITH A FEW STRONG PULSE STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH STORM MOTION ESE AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. MODELS HAVE
BROUGHT DRIER IN A LITTLE FASTER AND THUS HAVE TWEAKED POPS DOWN A
BIT FROM PRIOR FCST. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS LIKE GOOD RAIN CHANCES
NEAR AND S OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE. DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUN TO YIELD HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH A WEAK E COAST SEA BREEZE DUE TO PREVAILING
W-NW SFC FLOW. LOWER DEWPOINTS WORK IN FROM THE NW WITH VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND SE GA. AS SUCH...WE WIND
UP WITH MIN RH VALUES OF ABOUT 30% FROM NW OF WAYCROSS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDING
SHOWING PWATS BELOW 1 INCH AS THE DRY AIR WORKS SEWD INTO NE FL/SE
GA WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE
ERN CONUS. MORE COMFORTABLE LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER SE GA AND
SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA AND GENERALLY LOWER 70S IN NE FL.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONT BECOMES STALLED OVER CENTRAL FL WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR REMAINING OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. WEAK SFC PRES PATTERN NOTED IN
GUIDANCE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR W AND E COAST SEA BREEZES BUT BASED ON
GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15% AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LACK OF DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW
DEWPOINTS AROUND THE 58 TO 65 DEG RANGE SO HEAT INDICES ARE WELL
BELOW CRITERIA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S MOST LOCATIONS.

WED NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASES AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY
HEADS ESE TOWARD OUR AREA. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES DUE TO BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MINS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO
MID 70S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SRN EXTENT OF MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD
TO SRN MS VALLEY WHICH WILL TRANSITION DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW TO THE
SW. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE AND TEMPS ALOFT
MAY COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS ALL INDICATES A RETURN TO LOW
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY FRI
THROUGH SUN WITH THE W COAST SEA BREEZE THE DOMINATE BOUNDARY
HELPING TO FOSTER AT LEAST SCATTERED DAILY CONVECTION. MAX/MIN TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME HEAVIER PRECIP PERIODS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AND SUN DUE TO SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVE AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA.
HAVE VCTS AT SSI BEGINNING AT 20Z...AND AT JAX...CRG...VQQ AT 22Z.
HAVE VCSH AT GNV AT 22Z.   AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR LOWER
CIGS/VSBY FROM TS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ON EXACT
TIMING AND WILL LEAVE OUT TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT NIGHT (NOCTURNAL SURGE) OFFSHORE AND WILL
HAVE EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND
BECOME ONSHORE BY MID WEEK AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE WATERS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC. OF
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE LATE TODAY
INTO TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA ON TUE AND WED
WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 28-35% ACROSS INLAND AREAS FROM
SUWANNEE VALLEY NWD INTO SE GA. THESE VALUES WHILE LOW ARE STILL ABOVE
ANY RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  98  71  93  66 /  40  40  10  10
SSI  96  77  90  75 /  30  30  20  10
JAX  97  76  93  71 /  20  30  30  20
SGJ  96  78  91  74 /  20  30  40  40
GNV  94  75  93  70 /  20  30  30  20
OCF  94  76  93  71 /  20  30  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BAKER-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-HAMILTON-NASSAU-
     PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS






000
FXUS62 KJAX 280047
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
847 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AREA WIDE MONDAY...

...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.UPDATE...
VERY LIMITED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
HAS DISSIPATED...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...WITH LOWS TNGT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TNGT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA...WITH LITTLE/NO FOG EXPECTED.

MONDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S...WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 105 AND 110
DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY
AFTN. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE TOMORROW BUT UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS SOMEWHAT LACKING CONSIDERING THAT THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING SOME UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE PERSISTING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. THE LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS...WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL CONTINUE TO USE GUSTY WIND WORDING
FOR THE TSTMS NORTH OF I-10 MONDAY AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TONIGHT...AS DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY. AN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP WINDS UP AT
AREA TAF SITES TONIGHT...SO FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL AS IT
REACHES NEAR THE GA/FL LINE MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
THE JACKSONVILLE METRO AREA SITES LATE MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OFFSHORE TO AROUND 15 KT AT BUOY 41008.
WILL CONTINUE THE SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS TNGT. ANOTHER WIND
SURGE WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  78  97  71  94 /   0  40  40  20
SSI  80  96  76  91 /   0  30  30  30
JAX  77  97  76  93 /   0  20  30  40
SGJ  77  95  77  91 /   0  20  40  50
GNV  75  95  75  93 /  10  20  40  50
OCF  75  94  76  93 /  10  20  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE/WALKER







000
FXUS62 KJAX 271905
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RISK OF STORMS OVER
SE GA LATE IN THE DAY...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH WEAK SHEARED OUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT
WAS FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES ROUGHLY FROM GNV-SGJ SOUTHWARD. FROM I-10 NORTHWARD
DRY MID AND UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AXIS WAS
SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT BRINGING HOT TEMPS WITH DRY
BULB VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S UNDER WARM AND BREEZY WSW
FLOW. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF CONVERGENT LINES OF CUMULUS
ACROSS SE GA AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR OR NE FL...BUT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TEMPERED BY SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN WILL MAINTAIN 30-60% RAIN CHANCES
MOVING W-E ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH PRECIP QUICKLY FADING
AROUND SUNSET. TSTORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IN COVERAGE WITH THE
MAIN CONVECTIVE CONCERN GUSTY WINDS. HEAT ADVISORY GENERALLY
REMAINS ON TRACK AND WILL LEAVE IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM.

WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD OVER N GA WITH WINDS IN THE 5-10 MPH EXPECTED EVEN
INLAND. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MUGGY HOWEVER WITH FLOW INCREASING
OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
ADVECTING INLAND OVER THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. MINS WILL ONLY
COOL INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST/RIVER BASIN.

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY AS TEMPS SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES.
THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO HOIST ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR TOMORROW. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY
UNSTABLE TOMORROW BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS SOMEWHAT LACKING
CONSIDERING THAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PERSISTING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
COUPLED WITH THE CAP AT AROUND 750 MB ARE LIKELY THE REASONS WHY
MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW ON POPS (GFS ONLY SHOWS 20% FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA). THE NAM IS A LITTLE HIGHER. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND SHOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. ANY STORMS THAT MOVE INTO SE GA WILL LIKELY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND BULK LAYER SHEAR THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS. HAVE RETAINED GUSTY WIND WORDING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

FRONT WILL SAG INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA MONDAY EVENING WITH ROUGHLY A
30% CHANCE OF STORMS PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH WILL HANG UP OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL AFFECT MOSTLY NE FLORIDA AS MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF FILTERING IN ACROSS SE GA
WHICH WILL MOSTLY BRING AN END TO ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS
THAT AREA. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY WHERE HIGH MOISTURE WILL COMBINE
WITH HIGH INSTABILITY WITH A FOCUS ALONG THE STALLED TROUGH WHERE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED.

ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH
BROAD TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SIGNIFICANT DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL SUPPRESS ACTIVITY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WILL SETTLE BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND NOT NEARLY AS HUMID AS SOME DRIER
AIR MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT
AGAIN NOT NEARLY AS MUGGY AS RECENT DAYS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE STILL IN
SIMILAR AGREEMENT. SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY TO BRING A RETURN TO A LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
SEABREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN WITH TEMPO MVFR
MOST LIKELY AT GNV DUE TO SHOWERS. TEMPO MVFR BKN CIGS POSSIBLE AT
DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS...BUT MOST OBS SHOW SCT 3.5-4 KFT. BREEZY
WSW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 15-18 MPH DEVELOPED THIS
AFTN AS GRADIENT INCREASED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-10 MPH WHICH WILL PREVENT
FOG FORMATION. COULD SEE SOME LOW STRATUS OFF OF THE GULF TOWARD
GNV BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TAF PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. BREEZY WSW WINDS DEVELOP AGAIN MON A BIT
EARLY THAN TODAY AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE WITH NEAR/OFFSHORE SPLIT WITH WSW WINDS
INCREASING OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION 15-20 KTS. SEAS OF 1-3 FT EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
2-4 FT. ANOTHER NOCTURNAL SURGE EXPECTED MON NIGHT WITH THE
APPROACHING OF THE FRONT. WINDS DECREASING WED AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION
INTO FRI WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED 10 KTS AND SEAS 3 FT OR
LESS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  77  97  72  94 /  10  40  40  20
SSI  80  97  78  91 /  10  30  30  30
JAX  75  96  76  94 /  10  20  30  40
SGJ  77  94  78  92 /  10  20  40  50
GNV  75  94  75  93 /  10  20  40  50
OCF  74  94  75  93 /  10  20  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-COLUMBIA-
     DUVAL-HAMILTON-NASSAU-SUWANNEE.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/








000
FXUS62 KJAX 271905
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY WITH SLIGHT RISK OF STORMS OVER
SE GA LATE IN THE DAY...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH WEAK SHEARED OUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT
WAS FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES ROUGHLY FROM GNV-SGJ SOUTHWARD. FROM I-10 NORTHWARD
DRY MID AND UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AXIS WAS
SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT BRINGING HOT TEMPS WITH DRY
BULB VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S UNDER WARM AND BREEZY WSW
FLOW. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF CONVERGENT LINES OF CUMULUS
ACROSS SE GA AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR OR NE FL...BUT VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TEMPERED BY SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN WILL MAINTAIN 30-60% RAIN CHANCES
MOVING W-E ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH PRECIP QUICKLY FADING
AROUND SUNSET. TSTORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IN COVERAGE WITH THE
MAIN CONVECTIVE CONCERN GUSTY WINDS. HEAT ADVISORY GENERALLY
REMAINS ON TRACK AND WILL LEAVE IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM.

WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD OVER N GA WITH WINDS IN THE 5-10 MPH EXPECTED EVEN
INLAND. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MUGGY HOWEVER WITH FLOW INCREASING
OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
ADVECTING INLAND OVER THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. MINS WILL ONLY
COOL INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST/RIVER BASIN.

MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY AS TEMPS SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES.
THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO HOIST ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR TOMORROW. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY
UNSTABLE TOMORROW BUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS SOMEWHAT LACKING
CONSIDERING THAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PERSISTING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
COUPLED WITH THE CAP AT AROUND 750 MB ARE LIKELY THE REASONS WHY
MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER LOW ON POPS (GFS ONLY SHOWS 20% FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA). THE NAM IS A LITTLE HIGHER. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
INHERITED FORECAST AND SHOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. ANY STORMS THAT MOVE INTO SE GA WILL LIKELY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND BULK LAYER SHEAR THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS. HAVE RETAINED GUSTY WIND WORDING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

FRONT WILL SAG INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA MONDAY EVENING WITH ROUGHLY A
30% CHANCE OF STORMS PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH WILL HANG UP OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL AFFECT MOSTLY NE FLORIDA AS MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF FILTERING IN ACROSS SE GA
WHICH WILL MOSTLY BRING AN END TO ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS
THAT AREA. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY WHERE HIGH MOISTURE WILL COMBINE
WITH HIGH INSTABILITY WITH A FOCUS ALONG THE STALLED TROUGH WHERE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED.

ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH
BROAD TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SIGNIFICANT DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL SUPPRESS ACTIVITY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WILL SETTLE BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND NOT NEARLY AS HUMID AS SOME DRIER
AIR MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT
AGAIN NOT NEARLY AS MUGGY AS RECENT DAYS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE STILL IN
SIMILAR AGREEMENT. SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY TO BRING A RETURN TO A LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
SEABREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN WITH TEMPO MVFR
MOST LIKELY AT GNV DUE TO SHOWERS. TEMPO MVFR BKN CIGS POSSIBLE AT
DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS...BUT MOST OBS SHOW SCT 3.5-4 KFT. BREEZY
WSW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 15-18 MPH DEVELOPED THIS
AFTN AS GRADIENT INCREASED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-10 MPH WHICH WILL PREVENT
FOG FORMATION. COULD SEE SOME LOW STRATUS OFF OF THE GULF TOWARD
GNV BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TAF PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. BREEZY WSW WINDS DEVELOP AGAIN MON A BIT
EARLY THAN TODAY AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE WITH NEAR/OFFSHORE SPLIT WITH WSW WINDS
INCREASING OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION 15-20 KTS. SEAS OF 1-3 FT EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
2-4 FT. ANOTHER NOCTURNAL SURGE EXPECTED MON NIGHT WITH THE
APPROACHING OF THE FRONT. WINDS DECREASING WED AS THE FRONT SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION
INTO FRI WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED 10 KTS AND SEAS 3 FT OR
LESS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  77  97  72  94 /  10  40  40  20
SSI  80  97  78  91 /  10  30  30  30
JAX  75  96  76  94 /  10  20  30  40
SGJ  77  94  78  92 /  10  20  40  50
GNV  75  94  75  93 /  10  20  40  50
OCF  74  94  75  93 /  10  20  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-COLUMBIA-
     DUVAL-HAMILTON-NASSAU-SUWANNEE.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/









000
FXUS62 KJAX 271415
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1015 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY...

.UPDATE...THE MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE HOT TEMPS EXPECTED
ACROSS INLAND SE AND THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN UNDER WARM AND MOIST
WSW FLOW. DRY BULB TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS THESE ZONES. THE 12Z JAX RAOB REPORTED 500 MB
TEMP A TOASTY -4 DEG C WITH 850 MB TEMP 18 DEG C...BOTH VALUES AT
AND ABOVE CLIMO VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE WAS AMPLE PWAT
AT 1.84 INCHES...BUT ALSO SEVERAL DRY POCKETS AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION BOTH AT TAE AND JAX. THUS...CONVECTION WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME DEVELOPING INTO MORE THAN JUST SHOWERS TODAY.

MORNING VISIBLE SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF SCT-BKN CUMULUS DRIFTING
INLAND FROM THE GULF NEAR CROSS CITY...ON TRACK TO IMPACT
GILCHRIST...ALACHUA AND MARION COUNTIES THIS MORNING. A BROAD AREA
OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG IMPACTED SE GA THIS MORNING AND WAS ERODING
OVER THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL POP MORE SHALLOW
CUMULUS AND SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE STRONG CAPPING AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP CONVECTION
MINIMAL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WITH 15 KTS OF
WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE PUSH INLAND...WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY PINNED JUST
ALONG THE COAST TODAY. THUS...THE HEAT WILL REACH THE BEACH WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH TEMPO DUE TO
SHOWERS MOST LIKELY AT GNV.

&&

.MARINE...SPLIT THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE FORECAST
PACKAGE WITH AN INCREASE IN NOCTURNAL WINDS TONIGHT LIKELY BRINGING
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS TO MARGINAL
ADVISORY WITH WINDS 15-20 KTS. TODAY SW WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS
2-3 FT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  98  77  97  72 /  10  10  40  40
SSI  96  80  97  78 /  10  10  30  30
JAX  96  75  96  76 /  10  10  20  30
SGJ  94  77  94  78 /  20  10  20  40
GNV  94  75  94  75 /  20  10  20  40
OCF  94  74  94  75 /  30  10  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BAKER-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-HAMILTON-NASSAU-SUWANNEE.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KJAX 271415
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1015 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY...

.UPDATE...THE MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE HOT TEMPS EXPECTED
ACROSS INLAND SE AND THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN UNDER WARM AND MOIST
WSW FLOW. DRY BULB TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS THESE ZONES. THE 12Z JAX RAOB REPORTED 500 MB
TEMP A TOASTY -4 DEG C WITH 850 MB TEMP 18 DEG C...BOTH VALUES AT
AND ABOVE CLIMO VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE WAS AMPLE PWAT
AT 1.84 INCHES...BUT ALSO SEVERAL DRY POCKETS AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION BOTH AT TAE AND JAX. THUS...CONVECTION WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME DEVELOPING INTO MORE THAN JUST SHOWERS TODAY.

MORNING VISIBLE SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF SCT-BKN CUMULUS DRIFTING
INLAND FROM THE GULF NEAR CROSS CITY...ON TRACK TO IMPACT
GILCHRIST...ALACHUA AND MARION COUNTIES THIS MORNING. A BROAD AREA
OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG IMPACTED SE GA THIS MORNING AND WAS ERODING
OVER THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL POP MORE SHALLOW
CUMULUS AND SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE STRONG CAPPING AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP CONVECTION
MINIMAL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WITH 15 KTS OF
WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE PUSH INLAND...WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY PINNED JUST
ALONG THE COAST TODAY. THUS...THE HEAT WILL REACH THE BEACH WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH TEMPO DUE TO
SHOWERS MOST LIKELY AT GNV.

&&

.MARINE...SPLIT THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE FORECAST
PACKAGE WITH AN INCREASE IN NOCTURNAL WINDS TONIGHT LIKELY BRINGING
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS TO MARGINAL
ADVISORY WITH WINDS 15-20 KTS. TODAY SW WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS
2-3 FT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  98  77  97  72 /  10  10  40  40
SSI  96  80  97  78 /  10  10  30  30
JAX  96  75  96  76 /  10  10  20  30
SGJ  94  77  94  78 /  20  10  20  40
GNV  94  75  94  75 /  20  10  20  40
OCF  94  74  94  75 /  30  10  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BAKER-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-HAMILTON-NASSAU-SUWANNEE.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/WALSH








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