Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KJAX 272030
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
325 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES SOUTH...AND PROVIDES ADDITIONAL FORCING TO PRODUCE CLOUDS OUT
OF A MOIST LAYER NEAR 850MB. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THIS
TROUGHINESS MOVING SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OFF INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S TONIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE STIRRED...LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL.

WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A
LIGHT NORTH FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

.SHORT TERM...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRES AT SFC AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
WITH SFC RIDGE OVER THE NC/SC COAST BY THU MORNING. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH MAY FORM NEAR THE COAST BUT POPS ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
SKIES WILL TEND TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH WINDS NEAR 925 MB MAY
BEGIN ADVECTING STRATOCU FROM THE ATLC INTO COASTAL AREAS NEAR AND S
OF JAX. TEMPS WILL BE TUMBLING INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS WITH PATCHES
OF FREEZING TEMPS FOR INLAND AREAS BUT FOR NOW NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
ANY FREEZE WATCHES. AREAS OF FROST APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET DUE TO
NEAR CALM WIND AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRES TO OUR N WILL SHIFT SEWD AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE IN RESPONSE
WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S...TO NEAR 70 IN A FEW SPOTS. SKY COVER
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MAY PREVAIL.

THURSDSAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
WITH RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE ALONG IT. THINK AT LEAST A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE FRONT LOOSING ITS PUNCH BY THE TIME IT REACHES INTO
NE FL BY EARLY FRI MORNING. MINS IN THE 40S EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE SRN
ZONES FRI MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. MAX TEMPS
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER THURS...AND NLY FLOW TO BE AROUND
10 MPH.

.LONG TERM...FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL AS A DRY COOL/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH SFC HIGH PRES N
OF THE AREA. FOR SAT THROUGH SUN...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON VEERING
TREND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE HEADING TO THE E COAST. ISOLD
SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
LIKELY NEAR THE COAST...WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SUN AS A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD INTO/THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BEST
FORCING WILL STILL BE LOCATED WELL TO OUR W SO POPS ARE PLACED NO
HIGHER THAN 35 PERCENT ATTM. COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RESPECTIVE INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHEST CHANCES NOW UP TO ABOUT 50 PERCENT
N/NW ZONES. ITS WORTH NOTING THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT IN TIMING THE FRONT AND THUS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
IN THE FCST. BY MON AFTN INTO EARLY TUE...FRONT WILL MOVE E AND SE
OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N. MODERATING TEMPS
EXPECTED SAT THROUGH SUN...THEN COOLER AND DRIER CONDS EXPECTED LATE
MON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS 18Z TAF PERIOD.
STRATUS CLOUDS THAT FORM THIS AFTERNOON...WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF AREA WATERS THIS EVENING...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. UNFAVORABLE WIND/SEA CONDITIONS WITH
BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED SAT THRU SUN.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. GUST W TO NW WINDS TODAY EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO 8
TO 10 MPH BY EARLY THIS EVENING. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 30-35
PERCENT WED AND AGAIN ON THU BUT FORTUNATELY WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT WED AND THU AOB 10 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  34  56  30  63 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  36  53  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  35  57  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  38  55  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  35  59  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  37  61  35  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHASHY/WALKER





000
FXUS62 KJAX 271419
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
919 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU IS EXPECTED IN A MOIST
LAYER NEAR 850MB. OTHERWISE...A DRY DAY WITH SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING...BUT REMAINING BELOW
AVERAGE. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY...AS THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES. MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE GUSTY WINDS TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

WILL DROP THE MENTION OF LLWS SOON...AS THE POTENTIAL DECREASES
WITH LOWER ATMOSPHERIC MIXING. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A MOIST LAYER WAS PRESENT ON THE
MORNING SOUNDING BETWEEN 4000-6000 FT...SO ANTICIPATE CU TO BEGIN
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE...AND LIFT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DECREASE...AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. HAVE
LOWERED THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS...AND CARRIED THAT THROUGH TONIGHT...AND EXTENDED
NEARSHORE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN
TONIGHT...THEN OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  56  33  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  55  38  50  39 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  60  36  53  36 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  61  41  52  42 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  63  37  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  63  38  59  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE




000
FXUS62 KJAX 270730
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015


.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S WITH EVEN COOLER READINGS ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BECOME
ONSHORE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WITH WINDS STAYING UP AT 5 TO 10 MPH. A LIGHT FREEZE INLAND WITH
PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND WINDS
DROP OFF. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND ON THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND WINDS BECOME SW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 60S ON THURSDAY.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO SE GA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
FRIDAY MORNING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NE FL INTO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...SO HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES QUITE LIMITED. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...THEN LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN GULF. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...LENDING TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. AT THIS POINT
HAVE KEPT POPS NEAR THE 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE. MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY...WHEN THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. STRONG NW WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL PRODUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EARLY
THIS MORNING INLAND AT GNV AND VQQ AS SURFACE WINDS EASE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN STRONG TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATOCUMULUS WILL INCREASE TO BKN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWINGS SE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG NW WINDS THIS MORNING...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
OFFSHORE EXPECTED UNTIL MID-MORNING. WINDS WILL START TO SLOWLY
DECREASE BY AFTERNOON AS DEEP SURFACE LOW OFF THE NE COAST LIFTS
TO THE NNE WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRIDAY WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  56  33  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  55  38  50  39 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  60  36  53  36 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  61  41  52  42 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  63  37  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  63  38  59  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/CORDERO/





000
FXUS62 KJAX 270237
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
937 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE LAST OF THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OFFSHORE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED OVER LAND AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN MIN
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER
WITH WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AREA-WIDE
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL BE A
COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
NOT AS BREEZY AS IT WAS TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. A BKN DECK
OF STRATOCUMULUS WITH CIGS AROUND 4500 FT AT SSI AND JAX WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TOWARDS 04Z...WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
THE MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE WIND SHEAR AS SURFACE WINDS
DIMINISH INLAND AT THE GNV...VQQ...AND JAX TERMINALS. NORTHWEST
WINDS ABOVE 1500 FT WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 35 KNOTS TOWARDS 06Z.
SUSTAINED WINDS AT CRG AND SSI SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT...PRECLUDING SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR AT THESE TERMINALS.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KNOTS ABOVE 5000
FT TOWARDS 06Z. SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS AFTER 14Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS ON
TUES...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS AT SSI...CRG...AND JAX.
SCT TO BKN STRATOCUMULUS WITH CIGS AT 4000-4500 FT ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS TOWARDS 16Z- 18Z TUES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
GALE WARNING OFFSHORE WILL END EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL NEED
TO BE REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR
LINGERING 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  34  57  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  39  55  37  54 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  36  59  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  39  58  40  57 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  36  62  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  37  63  38  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHULER/NELSON/





000
FXUS62 KJAX 270237
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
937 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE LAST OF THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OFFSHORE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED OVER LAND AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN MIN
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER
WITH WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AREA-WIDE
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL BE A
COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
NOT AS BREEZY AS IT WAS TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. A BKN DECK
OF STRATOCUMULUS WITH CIGS AROUND 4500 FT AT SSI AND JAX WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TOWARDS 04Z...WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
THE MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE WIND SHEAR AS SURFACE WINDS
DIMINISH INLAND AT THE GNV...VQQ...AND JAX TERMINALS. NORTHWEST
WINDS ABOVE 1500 FT WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 35 KNOTS TOWARDS 06Z.
SUSTAINED WINDS AT CRG AND SSI SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT...PRECLUDING SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR AT THESE TERMINALS.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KNOTS ABOVE 5000
FT TOWARDS 06Z. SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS AFTER 14Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS ON
TUES...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS AT SSI...CRG...AND JAX.
SCT TO BKN STRATOCUMULUS WITH CIGS AT 4000-4500 FT ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS TOWARDS 16Z- 18Z TUES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
GALE WARNING OFFSHORE WILL END EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL NEED
TO BE REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR
LINGERING 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  34  57  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  39  55  37  54 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  36  59  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  39  58  40  57 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  36  62  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  37  63  38  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHULER/NELSON/




000
FXUS62 KJAX 261956
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
256 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL EJECT TO THE N/NE AND
INTENSIFY TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW IS CLIPPING SE GA/NE FL THIS AFTN. THESE CLOUDS WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH
RANGE OVERNIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S COAST. WITH WINDS REMAINING
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MINIMUM WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
SE GA WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FOR NE FL.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION THURSDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
THURSDAY.

WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S INLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO STIR ENOUGH TO LIMIT
FROST POTENTIAL. A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FROST/LIGHT FREEZE WILL
EXIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS...AND INLAND LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BEHIND IT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...
SO HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...THEN LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. POPS FOR THIS PERIOD CAN BE ADJUSTED UP AS
NECESSARY AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER...AND MODELS CONVERGE ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY...WHEN THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH BROKEN CUMULUS FOR
SSI/JAX/CRG/VQQ THIS AFTN DISOBEYING THIS EVENING. WEST WINDS
12-18 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THIS AFTN WILL DECREASE TO 10-12
KT TNGT. ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
W/NW WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...AND SHOULD MAXIMIZE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 30 KNOTS OFFSHORE AND 25 KNOTS NEAR
SHORE. GIVEN FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LIKELY...WILL RETAIN
THE GALE WARNING OFFSHORE AND SCA NEAR SHORE THROUGH MID MORNING
TUESDAY. VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE. IMPROVEMENT
TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH BUILDS...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND
LOWER...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. A COLD FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  34  57  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  39  55  37  54 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  36  59  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  39  58  40  57 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  36  62  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  37  63  38  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE





000
FXUS62 KJAX 261956
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
256 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL EJECT TO THE N/NE AND
INTENSIFY TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW IS CLIPPING SE GA/NE FL THIS AFTN. THESE CLOUDS WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH
RANGE OVERNIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S COAST. WITH WINDS REMAINING
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MINIMUM WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
SE GA WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FOR NE FL.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION THURSDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
THURSDAY.

WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S INLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO STIR ENOUGH TO LIMIT
FROST POTENTIAL. A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FROST/LIGHT FREEZE WILL
EXIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS...AND INLAND LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BEHIND IT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...
SO HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...THEN LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. POPS FOR THIS PERIOD CAN BE ADJUSTED UP AS
NECESSARY AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER...AND MODELS CONVERGE ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY...WHEN THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH BROKEN CUMULUS FOR
SSI/JAX/CRG/VQQ THIS AFTN DISOBEYING THIS EVENING. WEST WINDS
12-18 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THIS AFTN WILL DECREASE TO 10-12
KT TNGT. ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
W/NW WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...AND SHOULD MAXIMIZE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 30 KNOTS OFFSHORE AND 25 KNOTS NEAR
SHORE. GIVEN FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LIKELY...WILL RETAIN
THE GALE WARNING OFFSHORE AND SCA NEAR SHORE THROUGH MID MORNING
TUESDAY. VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE. IMPROVEMENT
TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH BUILDS...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND
LOWER...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. A COLD FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  34  57  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  39  55  37  54 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  36  59  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  39  58  40  57 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  36  62  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  37  63  38  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE




000
FXUS62 KJAX 261345
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
845 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE SE...WITH SKIES CLEARING AREA WIDE.
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE AS IT DEPARTS TO THE NE. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER TO
PCLDY/MCLDY ACROSS MOST OF SE GA...WITH SCATTERED AFTN CLOUDS
FURTHER SOUTH. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN...WITH BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTN...BUT SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL...WITH MID/UPPER 50S FOR SE GA/NE FL
AND LOWER 60S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME BROKEN CUMULUS WILL
BE LIKELY AT SSI THIS AFTN. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-18 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...WITH THE CURRENT GALE WARNINGS AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOKING ON TRACK. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  36  54  34 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  56  39  55  38 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  59  37  58  37 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  60  40  59  42 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  60  37  61  38 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  61  39  61  39 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 261345
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
845 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE SE...WITH SKIES CLEARING AREA WIDE.
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE AS IT DEPARTS TO THE NE. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER TO
PCLDY/MCLDY ACROSS MOST OF SE GA...WITH SCATTERED AFTN CLOUDS
FURTHER SOUTH. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN...WITH BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTN...BUT SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL...WITH MID/UPPER 50S FOR SE GA/NE FL
AND LOWER 60S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME BROKEN CUMULUS WILL
BE LIKELY AT SSI THIS AFTN. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-18 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...WITH THE CURRENT GALE WARNINGS AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOKING ON TRACK. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  36  54  34 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  56  39  55  38 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  59  37  58  37 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  60  40  59  42 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  60  37  61  38 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  61  39  61  39 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 260943
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
443 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY....COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES CLEARING OUT WITH IT. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG SFC LOW TO
THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH TO THE WEST TIGHTENS. WINDS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS SEEING 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL AREAS.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE FL WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR SE GA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND LOW AS
IT MOVES OFF TO THE NE. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LEAVE MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN
SE GA AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN NE FL.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING LINGERING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
SE GA TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL COME DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING INTO
THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. COLDER TEMPS IN STORE WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND
DRIER AIR IN PLACE. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS
INLAND AREAS OF SE GA AND NE FL BUT WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION
WILL NOT BE LIKELY AS WINDS STAY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...INLAND LOCATIONS THAT ARE PROTECTED FROM THE WIND COULD
SEE FROST FORMATION. COASTAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER THE AREA DUE
TO DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NE U.S. COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ON
WEDNESDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO WEAKEN AS NE LOW MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE. IT WILL STILL BE COOL BUT NOT AS WINDY AS NORTH
WINDS DECREASE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S EACH MORNING BUT
WITH WINDS STAYING UP NOT MUCH FROST EXPECTED. FROST MORE LIKELY
INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DROP OFF WITH SURFACE RIDGE
SETTLING OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SHORT
WAVE WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. PUSHING ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS
AND ENSEMBLE. DUE TO BEST LIFT/MOISTURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP
POPS MOSTLY SILENT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL NEXT WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF ANOTHER
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEKEND. POPS WILL BE
BELOW CLIMO.


&&

.AVIATION...
REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL THE
TERMINALS BY SUNRISE WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS MORNING AT JAX...VQQ...AND GNV. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEGINNING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AT 15-20 MPH
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND 00Z
CLOSER TO 10-15 MPH BUT TERMINALS NEAR THE COAST...CRG AND SSI...
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY TONIGHT. AS WINDS START TO COME
DOWN AT THE SFC LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED ABOVE THE SFC WIND SHEAR COULD BECOME AN ISSUE AND MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED IN FUTURE TAF PACKAGES.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING TREND IN WIND AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL EXIT
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. HAVE UPGRADED THE OFFSHORE WATERS
FROM A SCA TO A GALE WARNING BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY AS FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY COME DOWN ON TUESDAY IN THE OFFSHORE WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
NEARSHORE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO START TO SEE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS BEGINNING THIS MORNING ALSO CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY WHEN PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY LOOSENS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AT THE SFC. NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TOMORROW.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DISPERSIONS WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY AND TUESDAY
DUE TO STRONG WINDS. NO RED FLAG EVENT EXPECTED DUE TO RH`S
REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES WITH HIGH FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  36  54  34 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  56  39  55  38 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  59  37  58  37 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  60  40  59  42 /  10  10   0   0
GNV  60  37  61  38 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  61  39  61  39 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/GUILLET/





000
FXUS62 KJAX 260943
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
443 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY....COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES CLEARING OUT WITH IT. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG SFC LOW TO
THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH TO THE WEST TIGHTENS. WINDS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS SEEING 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL AREAS.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE FL WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR SE GA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND LOW AS
IT MOVES OFF TO THE NE. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LEAVE MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN
SE GA AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN NE FL.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING LINGERING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
SE GA TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL COME DOWN SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING INTO
THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. COLDER TEMPS IN STORE WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND
DRIER AIR IN PLACE. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS
INLAND AREAS OF SE GA AND NE FL BUT WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION
WILL NOT BE LIKELY AS WINDS STAY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...INLAND LOCATIONS THAT ARE PROTECTED FROM THE WIND COULD
SEE FROST FORMATION. COASTAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER THE AREA DUE
TO DEEPENING LOW OFF THE NE U.S. COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ON
WEDNESDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO WEAKEN AS NE LOW MOVES
FURTHER OFFSHORE. IT WILL STILL BE COOL BUT NOT AS WINDY AS NORTH
WINDS DECREASE. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S EACH MORNING BUT
WITH WINDS STAYING UP NOT MUCH FROST EXPECTED. FROST MORE LIKELY
INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DROP OFF WITH SURFACE RIDGE
SETTLING OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SHORT
WAVE WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. PUSHING ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS
AND ENSEMBLE. DUE TO BEST LIFT/MOISTURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP
POPS MOSTLY SILENT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL NEXT WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF ANOTHER
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
THEN WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEKEND. POPS WILL BE
BELOW CLIMO.


&&

.AVIATION...
REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH ALL THE
TERMINALS BY SUNRISE WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS MORNING AT JAX...VQQ...AND GNV. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEGINNING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AT 15-20 MPH
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND 00Z
CLOSER TO 10-15 MPH BUT TERMINALS NEAR THE COAST...CRG AND SSI...
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY TONIGHT. AS WINDS START TO COME
DOWN AT THE SFC LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED ABOVE THE SFC WIND SHEAR COULD BECOME AN ISSUE AND MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED IN FUTURE TAF PACKAGES.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING TREND IN WIND AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL EXIT
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. HAVE UPGRADED THE OFFSHORE WATERS
FROM A SCA TO A GALE WARNING BEGINNING AT NOON TODAY AS FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY COME DOWN ON TUESDAY IN THE OFFSHORE WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
NEARSHORE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO START TO SEE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS BEGINNING THIS MORNING ALSO CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY WHEN PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY LOOSENS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AT THE SFC. NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
IN THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TOMORROW.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DISPERSIONS WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY AND TUESDAY
DUE TO STRONG WINDS. NO RED FLAG EVENT EXPECTED DUE TO RH`S
REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES WITH HIGH FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  36  54  34 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  56  39  55  38 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  59  37  58  37 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  60  40  59  42 /  10  10   0   0
GNV  60  37  61  38 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  61  39  61  39 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/GUILLET/




000
FXUS62 KJAX 260145
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
845 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

...BRIEF PERIOD OF RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT...

...BECOMING WINDY AND COOLER ON MONDAY...

.UPDATE...
INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
BUILDING SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE NORTHEAST GOMEX WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY TO JUST AFTER SUNRISE. SURFACE FLOW WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD ACRS SE GA AND
SLIGHTLY MORE AS YOU MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA. TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN SLIGHTLY RISE
TOWARDS MORNING. COLD FRONT PUSHES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY WITH RAINFALL QUICKLY ENDING AND TEMPS POSSIBLY BRIEFING
DIPPING ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS RIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...THEN SLOWLY PUSHING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S SE GA AND
UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 ACRS NE FL. BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE WEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH. WILL
BE VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TROUGH MIDNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD THE
FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WHICH MAY DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW BOMBS OUT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AHEAD OF
FRONT THEN BECOME WEST AT 20-30 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MONDAY BECOMING NORTHWEST AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS ON MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LET MID SHIFT MAKE FINAL CALL
ON GALE WARNING IF NEEDED.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SATILLA RIVER CREST MOVING DOWNSTREAM AND MAY REACH MINOR FLOOD
STATUS AT ATKINSON IN THE WED/THU TIME FRAME BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON
THE FLOOD WARNING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  42  56  35  57 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  46  56  38  55 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  43  59  36  60 /  40  20   0   0
SGJ  48  60  39  60 /  40  30   0   0
GNV  44  61  37  62 /  30  20   0   0
OCF  45  62  38  63 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/SANDRIK/SHULER





000
FXUS62 KJAX 260145
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
845 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

...BRIEF PERIOD OF RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT...

...BECOMING WINDY AND COOLER ON MONDAY...

.UPDATE...
INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
BUILDING SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE NORTHEAST GOMEX WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY TO JUST AFTER SUNRISE. SURFACE FLOW WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD ACRS SE GA AND
SLIGHTLY MORE AS YOU MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA. TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN SLIGHTLY RISE
TOWARDS MORNING. COLD FRONT PUSHES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY WITH RAINFALL QUICKLY ENDING AND TEMPS POSSIBLY BRIEFING
DIPPING ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS RIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...THEN SLOWLY PUSHING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S SE GA AND
UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 ACRS NE FL. BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE WEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH. WILL
BE VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TROUGH MIDNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD THE
FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WHICH MAY DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW BOMBS OUT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AHEAD OF
FRONT THEN BECOME WEST AT 20-30 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MONDAY BECOMING NORTHWEST AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS ON MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LET MID SHIFT MAKE FINAL CALL
ON GALE WARNING IF NEEDED.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SATILLA RIVER CREST MOVING DOWNSTREAM AND MAY REACH MINOR FLOOD
STATUS AT ATKINSON IN THE WED/THU TIME FRAME BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON
THE FLOOD WARNING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  42  56  35  57 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  46  56  38  55 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  43  59  36  60 /  40  20   0   0
SGJ  48  60  39  60 /  40  30   0   0
GNV  44  61  37  62 /  30  20   0   0
OCF  45  62  38  63 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/SANDRIK/SHULER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 260145
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
845 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

...BRIEF PERIOD OF RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT...

...BECOMING WINDY AND COOLER ON MONDAY...

.UPDATE...
INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
BUILDING SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE NORTHEAST GOMEX WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY TO JUST AFTER SUNRISE. SURFACE FLOW WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD ACRS SE GA AND
SLIGHTLY MORE AS YOU MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA. TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN SLIGHTLY RISE
TOWARDS MORNING. COLD FRONT PUSHES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY WITH RAINFALL QUICKLY ENDING AND TEMPS POSSIBLY BRIEFING
DIPPING ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS RIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...THEN SLOWLY PUSHING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S SE GA AND
UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 ACRS NE FL. BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE WEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH. WILL
BE VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TROUGH MIDNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD THE
FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WHICH MAY DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW BOMBS OUT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AHEAD OF
FRONT THEN BECOME WEST AT 20-30 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MONDAY BECOMING NORTHWEST AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS ON MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LET MID SHIFT MAKE FINAL CALL
ON GALE WARNING IF NEEDED.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SATILLA RIVER CREST MOVING DOWNSTREAM AND MAY REACH MINOR FLOOD
STATUS AT ATKINSON IN THE WED/THU TIME FRAME BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON
THE FLOOD WARNING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  42  56  35  57 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  46  56  38  55 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  43  59  36  60 /  40  20   0   0
SGJ  48  60  39  60 /  40  30   0   0
GNV  44  61  37  62 /  30  20   0   0
OCF  45  62  38  63 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/SANDRIK/SHULER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 260145
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
845 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

...BRIEF PERIOD OF RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT...

...BECOMING WINDY AND COOLER ON MONDAY...

.UPDATE...
INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
BUILDING SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE NORTHEAST GOMEX WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY TO JUST AFTER SUNRISE. SURFACE FLOW WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD ACRS SE GA AND
SLIGHTLY MORE AS YOU MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA. TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN SLIGHTLY RISE
TOWARDS MORNING. COLD FRONT PUSHES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY WITH RAINFALL QUICKLY ENDING AND TEMPS POSSIBLY BRIEFING
DIPPING ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS RIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...THEN SLOWLY PUSHING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S SE GA AND
UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 ACRS NE FL. BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE WEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH. WILL
BE VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TROUGH MIDNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD THE
FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WHICH MAY DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE LOW BOMBS OUT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AHEAD OF
FRONT THEN BECOME WEST AT 20-30 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MONDAY BECOMING NORTHWEST AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS ON MONDAY NIGHT. WILL LET MID SHIFT MAKE FINAL CALL
ON GALE WARNING IF NEEDED.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SATILLA RIVER CREST MOVING DOWNSTREAM AND MAY REACH MINOR FLOOD
STATUS AT ATKINSON IN THE WED/THU TIME FRAME BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON
THE FLOOD WARNING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  42  56  35  57 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  46  56  38  55 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  43  59  36  60 /  40  20   0   0
SGJ  48  60  39  60 /  40  30   0   0
GNV  44  61  37  62 /  30  20   0   0
OCF  45  62  38  63 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/SANDRIK/SHULER





000
FXUS62 KJAX 251957
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
257 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT ARRIVES IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 06Z...THEN QUICKLY
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12Z. BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE OVER NE FL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...SO HAVE LIMITED
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NE FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ONLY A LOW 20-30% CHANCE OF PASSING MORNING
SHOWERS OVER NE FL EARLY MONDAY MORNING OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. BREEZY TO WINDY POST-FRONTAL WINDS MON
MIDDAY WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. DRY
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL PREVAIL UNDER MEAN LAYER WNW
FLOW DUE TO PERSISTENT MEAN LAYER EAST COAST TROUGH AXIS DOWN THE
SE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. YET ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
TRAILED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
INTO WED. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL RELAX WINDS AND ENABLE MIN
TEMPS TO COOL FURTHER OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT WITH A FREEZE INLAND AND
FROST WILL BE MOST PROBABLE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH LOWS INLAND MID/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE THU AS STACKED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION THEN SHIFTS SOUTH THU NIGHT. HIGHS WILL MODERATE INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S AS CLOUDINESS INCREASE FROM THE WNW THU AFTN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
LOW 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ECMWF IS STILL DEEPER WITH THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THUS GENERATES MORE PRECIP FRI
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND FOR THIS PACKAGE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD
ENSEMBLE POPS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS
WETTER AND WARMER STALLING THE FRONT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA NEXT
WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A COOLER AND DRIER WNW FLOW AND CLEAN
FRONTAL PASSAGE. USED THE MEN/ECM GUIDANCE AND HEDGED TOWARD LOW
15% CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR NE FL LATE SAT-SUN WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NEXT
WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WHICH MAY DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS AREA WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WINDS AND WAVES INCREASING
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY.

HAVE MOVED UP THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY TO THIS EVENING...IN
ANTICIPATION OF WINDS PICKING UP IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRE
FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
HIGH BUILDING FROM THE WEST...AND A LOW TO THE NORTHEAST.

HAVE ADDED THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS TO THE ADVISORY STARTING
MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS POST FRONTAL...AND MAY HAVE TO
INCLUDE GALE HEADLINE FOR OUTER WATERS IF NEXT FORECAST CYCLE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS INCREASING TREND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH A COOL FRONT SLIDING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH DISPERSIONS OVER 75 UNITS EXPECTED BOTH
MON & TUE DUE TO STRONG WINDS 15-25 MPH. RED FLAG CONDITIONS NOT
FORECAST HOWEVER DUE TO RHS ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES AND HIGH GROUND
MOISTURE.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  56  35  57 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  45  56  38  55 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  42  59  36  60 /  40  20   0   0
SGJ  47  60  39  60 /  40  30   0   0
GNV  43  61  37  62 /  30  20   0   0
OCF  44  62  38  63 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO
     ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/ENYEDI




000
FXUS62 KJAX 251957
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
257 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT ARRIVES IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 06Z...THEN QUICKLY
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12Z. BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE OVER NE FL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...SO HAVE LIMITED
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NE FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND ONLY A LOW 20-30% CHANCE OF PASSING MORNING
SHOWERS OVER NE FL EARLY MONDAY MORNING OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. BREEZY TO WINDY POST-FRONTAL WINDS MON
MIDDAY WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. DRY
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL PREVAIL UNDER MEAN LAYER WNW
FLOW DUE TO PERSISTENT MEAN LAYER EAST COAST TROUGH AXIS DOWN THE
SE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. YET ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
TRAILED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
INTO WED. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL RELAX WINDS AND ENABLE MIN
TEMPS TO COOL FURTHER OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT WITH A FREEZE INLAND AND
FROST WILL BE MOST PROBABLE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH LOWS INLAND MID/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE THU AS STACKED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION THEN SHIFTS SOUTH THU NIGHT. HIGHS WILL MODERATE INTO
THE LOW/MID 60S AS CLOUDINESS INCREASE FROM THE WNW THU AFTN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
LOW 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE ECMWF IS STILL DEEPER WITH THE
PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THUS GENERATES MORE PRECIP FRI
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND FOR THIS PACKAGE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD
ENSEMBLE POPS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS
WETTER AND WARMER STALLING THE FRONT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA NEXT
WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A COOLER AND DRIER WNW FLOW AND CLEAN
FRONTAL PASSAGE. USED THE MEN/ECM GUIDANCE AND HEDGED TOWARD LOW
15% CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR NE FL LATE SAT-SUN WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NEXT
WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS WHICH MAY DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS AREA WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WINDS AND WAVES INCREASING
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY.

HAVE MOVED UP THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY TO THIS EVENING...IN
ANTICIPATION OF WINDS PICKING UP IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRE
FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
HIGH BUILDING FROM THE WEST...AND A LOW TO THE NORTHEAST.

HAVE ADDED THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS TO THE ADVISORY STARTING
MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS POST FRONTAL...AND MAY HAVE TO
INCLUDE GALE HEADLINE FOR OUTER WATERS IF NEXT FORECAST CYCLE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS INCREASING TREND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WITH A COOL FRONT SLIDING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH DISPERSIONS OVER 75 UNITS EXPECTED BOTH
MON & TUE DUE TO STRONG WINDS 15-25 MPH. RED FLAG CONDITIONS NOT
FORECAST HOWEVER DUE TO RHS ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES AND HIGH GROUND
MOISTURE.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  56  35  57 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  45  56  38  55 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  42  59  36  60 /  40  20   0   0
SGJ  47  60  39  60 /  40  30   0   0
GNV  43  61  37  62 /  30  20   0   0
OCF  44  62  38  63 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO
     ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/ENYEDI





000
FXUS62 KJAX 250921
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
421 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY...PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH CHILLY MORNING TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE GOMEX AND FL
PENINSULA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH TODAY AS SFC BOUNDARY
PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIP DOWN OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM
THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH FORCING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GULF SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN FRONT MAKES ITS EXIT. HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER NE FL WITH A MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND SW FLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL COME UP TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS SE GA AND MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MUCH OF NE FL.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS SOUTH OF JAX ENDING IN
THE MORNING HOURS AND CLEARING OCCURRING IN THE AFTN. COOL AND
BREEZY/LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. A CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 35-40 INLAND WITH
LOWER 40S COAST. SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...BUT REMAINING
LOCALLY BREEZY ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MIDWEEK WILL DEAMPLIFY LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL. WEAK
IMPULSES MAY CLIP THE AREA IN ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...BUT
WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS...WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY...AND THE GFS
MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONT HANGING IT UP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVER
THE WEEKEND. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR
NOW...DEPICTING A MAINLY DRY FCST.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOWS CIGS COULD
BECOME AN ISSUE AROUND MIDNIGHT AT DUVAL SITES AND GNV AS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
MONDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN AN INCREASE IN WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT UP TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MONDAY MORNING FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND SCEC CONDITIONS IN THE NEARSHORE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AT
THE SFC.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY/LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES. RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS..SO NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  43  57  37 /   0  20  10   0
SSI  58  47  57  38 /   0  30  20   0
JAX  62  45  60  36 /   0  40  20   0
SGJ  61  49  59  39 /   0  30  20   0
GNV  64  46  60  36 /   0  40  10   0
OCF  65  48  62  38 /   0  40  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/GUILLET/




000
FXUS62 KJAX 250921
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
421 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY...PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH CHILLY MORNING TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE GOMEX AND FL
PENINSULA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH TODAY AS SFC BOUNDARY
PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIP DOWN OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM
THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH FORCING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND
MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GULF SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN FRONT MAKES ITS EXIT. HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER NE FL WITH A MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND SW FLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL COME UP TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS SE GA AND MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MUCH OF NE FL.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH
EARLY MONDAY...WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS SOUTH OF JAX ENDING IN
THE MORNING HOURS AND CLEARING OCCURRING IN THE AFTN. COOL AND
BREEZY/LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. A CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 35-40 INLAND WITH
LOWER 40S COAST. SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...BUT REMAINING
LOCALLY BREEZY ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MIDWEEK WILL DEAMPLIFY LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL. WEAK
IMPULSES MAY CLIP THE AREA IN ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...BUT
WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS...WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
ECMWF SHOWING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY...AND THE GFS
MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONT HANGING IT UP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVER
THE WEEKEND. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR
NOW...DEPICTING A MAINLY DRY FCST.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOWS CIGS COULD
BECOME AN ISSUE AROUND MIDNIGHT AT DUVAL SITES AND GNV AS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
MONDAY. THIS WILL BEGIN AN INCREASE IN WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT UP TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MONDAY MORNING FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND SCEC CONDITIONS IN THE NEARSHORE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AT
THE SFC.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY/LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES. RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS..SO NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  43  57  37 /   0  20  10   0
SSI  58  47  57  38 /   0  30  20   0
JAX  62  45  60  36 /   0  40  20   0
SGJ  61  49  59  39 /   0  30  20   0
GNV  64  46  60  36 /   0  40  10   0
OCF  65  48  62  38 /   0  40  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/GUILLET/





000
FXUS62 KJAX 250143
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
755 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

...CLEAR AND MUCH COLDER TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND W/NW
WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE SOME TIME OVERNIGHT TO STABILIZE AND
EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 40S INTO THE 30S AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S INLAND AND UPPER
30S NEAR THE COAST. BRIEF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORMALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS BUT SINCE WIDESPREAD FREEZE NOT
EXPECTED...NO WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. AS ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES BY
MORNING WITH WINDS FALLING TO 2-4 MPH EXPECT SOME PATCHY FROST IN
WIND-SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS.

ON SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BACKING TO
THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH BACK INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH
15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND STARTING AT 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE AND WILL
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL THE NEXT PACKAGE AROUND 3 AM.
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS SUN MORNING WILL SLOWLY BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY SUN AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT NEARSHORE RANGING TO 6 FT
OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  34  63  42  58 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  38  59  45  58 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  34  63  44  59 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  38  60  47  59 /   0   0  10  20
GNV  35  64  45  61 /   0   0  20  20
OCF  36  65  47  62 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/NELSON




000
FXUS62 KJAX 250143
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
755 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

...CLEAR AND MUCH COLDER TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND W/NW
WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE SOME TIME OVERNIGHT TO STABILIZE AND
EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 40S INTO THE 30S AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S INLAND AND UPPER
30S NEAR THE COAST. BRIEF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORMALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS BUT SINCE WIDESPREAD FREEZE NOT
EXPECTED...NO WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. AS ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES BY
MORNING WITH WINDS FALLING TO 2-4 MPH EXPECT SOME PATCHY FROST IN
WIND-SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS.

ON SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BACKING TO
THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH BACK INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH
15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND STARTING AT 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE AND WILL
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL THE NEXT PACKAGE AROUND 3 AM.
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS SUN MORNING WILL SLOWLY BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY SUN AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT NEARSHORE RANGING TO 6 FT
OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  34  63  42  58 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  38  59  45  58 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  34  63  44  59 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  38  60  47  59 /   0   0  10  20
GNV  35  64  45  61 /   0   0  20  20
OCF  36  65  47  62 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/NELSON





000
FXUS62 KJAX 250143
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
755 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

...CLEAR AND MUCH COLDER TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND W/NW
WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE SOME TIME OVERNIGHT TO STABILIZE AND
EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 40S INTO THE 30S AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S INLAND AND UPPER
30S NEAR THE COAST. BRIEF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORMALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS BUT SINCE WIDESPREAD FREEZE NOT
EXPECTED...NO WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. AS ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES BY
MORNING WITH WINDS FALLING TO 2-4 MPH EXPECT SOME PATCHY FROST IN
WIND-SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS.

ON SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BACKING TO
THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH BACK INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH
15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND STARTING AT 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE AND WILL
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL THE NEXT PACKAGE AROUND 3 AM.
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS SUN MORNING WILL SLOWLY BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY SUN AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT NEARSHORE RANGING TO 6 FT
OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  34  63  42  58 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  38  59  45  58 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  34  63  44  59 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  38  60  47  59 /   0   0  10  20
GNV  35  64  45  61 /   0   0  20  20
OCF  36  65  47  62 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/NELSON





000
FXUS62 KJAX 250143
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
755 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

...CLEAR AND MUCH COLDER TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND W/NW
WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE SOME TIME OVERNIGHT TO STABILIZE AND
EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE 40S INTO THE 30S AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S INLAND AND UPPER
30S NEAR THE COAST. BRIEF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORMALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS BUT SINCE WIDESPREAD FREEZE NOT
EXPECTED...NO WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. AS ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES BY
MORNING WITH WINDS FALLING TO 2-4 MPH EXPECT SOME PATCHY FROST IN
WIND-SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS.

ON SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BACKING TO
THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH BACK INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH
15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND STARTING AT 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE AND WILL
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL THE NEXT PACKAGE AROUND 3 AM.
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS SUN MORNING WILL SLOWLY BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST BY SUN AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT NEARSHORE RANGING TO 6 FT
OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  34  63  42  58 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  38  59  45  58 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  34  63  44  59 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  38  60  47  59 /   0   0  10  20
GNV  35  64  45  61 /   0   0  20  20
OCF  36  65  47  62 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/NELSON




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities