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000
FXUS62 KJAX 230619
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
219 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. NE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL BE IN
STORE TNGT WITH LOWS OF 45-50 INLAND WITH LOWER/MID 50S COAST.
SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS GULF MOISTURE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN
FL. WITH THIS PATTERN...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FOLLOWING A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY...BEGINNING A PERIOD OF
ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE CHANCE FOR COASTAL SHOWERS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BECOME NE 7-11 KT THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WIND SURGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...AND WILL LOWER THE CAUTION
FOR ALL THE WATERS. WINDS UNDER CAUTION LEVELS WILL PREVAIL
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NE WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY
BRIEFLY BECOMING OFFSHORE SUNDAY...THEN E/SE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  46  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  73  54  75  56 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  76  48  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  76  57  78  58 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  78  47  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  79  49  80  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE








000
FXUS62 KJAX 230105
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
905 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OFF THE E COAST WITH DRY
SUBSIDENT AIR OVER OUR FORECAST REGION. SFC HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN COOL AIR. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL STEADILY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
INLAND TO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FCST EXCEPT TO TWEAK TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRENDS FOR
THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT AND NNE-NE WINDS
THU AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...NNE WINDS MAY STILL BE AROUND 15-20 KT OFFSHORE TONIGHT SO
WILL CONTINUE SCEC HEADLINE THERE. THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST
AS WELL AS COASTAL OBS SHOW WINDS MORE AROUND THE 10-15 KT OR 15 KT
RANGE SO WILL REMOVE SCEC HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THURSDAY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND
ELEVATED SURF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  44  73  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  52  71  53  74 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  49  75  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  58  74  56  76 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  47  77  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  51  79  49  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KJAX 230105
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
905 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OFF THE E COAST WITH DRY
SUBSIDENT AIR OVER OUR FORECAST REGION. SFC HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN COOL AIR. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL STEADILY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
INLAND TO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FCST EXCEPT TO TWEAK TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRENDS FOR
THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT AND NNE-NE WINDS
THU AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...NNE WINDS MAY STILL BE AROUND 15-20 KT OFFSHORE TONIGHT SO
WILL CONTINUE SCEC HEADLINE THERE. THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST
AS WELL AS COASTAL OBS SHOW WINDS MORE AROUND THE 10-15 KT OR 15 KT
RANGE SO WILL REMOVE SCEC HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THURSDAY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND
ELEVATED SURF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  44  73  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  52  71  53  74 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  49  75  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  58  74  56  76 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  47  77  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  51  79  49  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KJAX 221848
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
248 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THIS AFTN THROUGH THU...DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OH RIVER
VALLEY. NNE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY BY MIDDAY ALONG THE COAST
AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN NEAR 15 MPH...THEN SUBSIDE IN THE
EVENING.

DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL DROP MIN TEMPS TONIGHT INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S OVER INLAND SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY...WITH
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING THE COAST WARMER WHERE LOWS WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S. DESPITE CHILLY VALUES...MINS WILL NOT CHALLENGE RECORD
LOWS FOR THE DATE WHICH ARE IN NEAR 40 INLAND TO 45 SSI.

DAYTIME HIGHS THU WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S OVER SE GA TO NEAR
80 SOUTHWARD TOWARD OCALA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH A FEW
CUMULUS MOVING ONSHORE OVER OUR SE FL ZONES.

AN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WAY TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT ANY PRECIP. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM OUR
WEST ON SATURDAY AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
INLAND.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING A WARMING TREND
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MAX
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND THE ENSUING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...NNE WIND SURGE 15-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LIKELY ONSHORE FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX THU INTO SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE NNW OF THE WATERS SETTLES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF
COAST REGION. EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NE OF THE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. MODERATE RISK THURS DUE TO ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MARGINALLY LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES (GENERALLY 28-35
PERCENT) ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INLAND EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. HOWEVER... WITH PREVAILING LIGHT WINDS AND ERC
VALUES FAR FROM CRITICAL VALUES...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  44  74  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  54  71  53  74 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  49  75  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  58  74  56  76 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  48  77  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  50  79  49  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/GUILLET










000
FXUS62 KJAX 221357
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
957 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...SUNNY...COOLER AND BREEZY...

.UPDATE...A STELLAR DAY IN STORE AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S OVER SE GA TO THE LOW 80S
SOUTHWARD TOWARD OCALA. BREEZY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL IMPACT THE
COAST AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN INTO THE AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TO THE FL
NEARSHORE WATERS AS NNE WIND SURGE PUSHES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
COASTLINE TODAY. ANTICIPATE BEING ABLE TO DROP THIS HEADLINE FOR
NEARSHORE LEGS THIS AFTN...WHILE WINDS WILL RELAX TO AROUND 15 KTS
OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS THIS EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. MODERATE RISK EXPECTED THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30-35% INLAND THIS
AFTN...WITH CLOSER TO THE COAST RHS WILL NEAR 40-45% UNDER A
BREEZY NNE 15-20 MPH. ALL PARAMETERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  44  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  73  53  73  55 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  78  48  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  77  57  76  58 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  81  48  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  83  50  79  52 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/GUILLET








000
FXUS62 KJAX 220546
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
146 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S ACROSS SE GA/EXTREME NE FL...TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80
FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DRY AIR WILL
RESULT IN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO THE MID/UPPER 40S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS...AND 50 TO 55
CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND GULF MOISTURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTION OF FL. AT THIS POINT...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
KEEP BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH GULF SYSTEM SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA...SO MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE SOUTH...AND COULD NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER FAR SOUTH.
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...DUE TO FLOW FROM NORTH.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
REGION. AS THE HIGH BUILDS AND DRIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST...IT
WILL SET UP A PERIOD OF INCREASINGLY MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRIMARILY COASTAL SHOWERS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TREND NEAR
TO JUST ABOVE NORMA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH PERHAPS
SOME SHALLOW MVFR AT VQQ OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING
WILL BECOME NORTH 8-12 KT THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS A NE WIND
SURGE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WILL USE CAUTION
FOR THE OUTER LEGS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH AROUND 15 KNOTS
FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR LATE WEEK
WITH WINDS INCREASING FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY WITH SIDESHORE FLOW. MODERATE RISK
THURSDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  44  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  73  53  73  55 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  77  48  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  77  57  76  58 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  80  48  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  82  50  79  52 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE








000
FXUS62 KJAX 220546
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
146 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S ACROSS SE GA/EXTREME NE FL...TO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80
FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DRY AIR WILL
RESULT IN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO THE MID/UPPER 40S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS...AND 50 TO 55
CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND GULF MOISTURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTION OF FL. AT THIS POINT...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
KEEP BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH GULF SYSTEM SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA...SO MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE SOUTH...AND COULD NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER FAR SOUTH.
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...DUE TO FLOW FROM NORTH.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
REGION. AS THE HIGH BUILDS AND DRIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST...IT
WILL SET UP A PERIOD OF INCREASINGLY MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRIMARILY COASTAL SHOWERS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH ONSHORE FLOW...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TREND NEAR
TO JUST ABOVE NORMA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH PERHAPS
SOME SHALLOW MVFR AT VQQ OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MID MORNING
WILL BECOME NORTH 8-12 KT THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS A NE WIND
SURGE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WILL USE CAUTION
FOR THE OUTER LEGS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH AROUND 15 KNOTS
FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR LATE WEEK
WITH WINDS INCREASING FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY WITH SIDESHORE FLOW. MODERATE RISK
THURSDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  44  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  73  53  73  55 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  77  48  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  77  57  76  58 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  80  48  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  82  50  79  52 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE








000
FXUS62 KJAX 220132
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
930 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE SE U.S.
THROUGH ABOUT CENTRAL FL...WITH A 90-100 KT JET AT 250 MB ACROSS N
FL. A GOOD DEAL OF CIRRUS CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE OUR SRN ZONES S OF
ST AUGUSTINE TO GAINESVILLE LINE. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT THEN SHIFT S OF THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 09Z-12Z. A WEAK / DRY
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SC AND CENTRAL GA WILL SHIFT SWD WITH CURRENT
LIGHT AND CALM WINDS BECOMING NLY LATE TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT FCST WITH MINS AROUND 50 N ZONES TO UPPER 50S S/SE
ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING NLY 5-10 KT WED.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY TOWARDS MORNING TO
ABOUT 15 KNOTS AS WEAK COOL FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS
INITIALLY 1-3 FT...WILL BUILD AFTER 06Z INTO WED AS WINDS PICK UP TO
15-20 KT BY MID MORNING WED. AN SCEC HEADLINE LOOKS WARRANTED FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE WATERS ON WED.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK CONTINUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  51  75  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  58  73  53  72 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  56  76  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  63  77  57  74 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  56  80  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  58  82  52  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/SHULER/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KJAX 211907
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
310 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER 80S...WITH JUST A LINE OF BROKEN CIRRUS AND SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF I-10 ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE FL.

TONIGHT...WEAK/DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SLIDE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS SE GA/NE FL WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
N/NW WINDS TO 5-10 MPH BY MORNING AND THIS WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ANY FOG FORMATION. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP LOW TEMPS ELEVATED
SLIGHTLY WITH MAINLY 50S INLAND AND 60S ALONG THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /WED-THU/...
DEEPENING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
INTO OUR REGION...BRINGING TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO BELOW LATE OCT
CLIMO. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA
AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 80S IN NORTH CENTRAL FL UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY/I-10 INLAND CORRIDOR FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER
40S...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LOWS ELSEWHERE IN NORTH
CENTRAL FL WILL FALL TO THE LOWER 50S...WITH UPPER 50S FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM /FRI-TUE/...
LONG-TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DEEP-LAYERED
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...KEEPING A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE LOCALLY. LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/YUCATAN PENINSULA REGION WILL EJECT
EASTWARD ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER ENTERS THE
ATLANTIC...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY ON
SATURDAY...REINFORCING A SEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS. HIGHS FRI AND SAT
WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 70S INLAND...WITH MID 70S EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST.

RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE CAROLINA/VIRGINIA COAST LATER THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A DEEPENING ONSHORE WIND REGIME
DEVELOPING. A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS MAY ADVECT ONSHORE ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FL COAST BEGINNING MON AFTERNOON...WITH THESE SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY SPREADING FURTHER INLAND BY TUES...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE POSSIBLE IN COASTAL NORTHEAST FL. TEMPS  WILL WARM TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO AT INLAND LOCATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S. LOWS INLAND WILL WARM THROUGH THE 50S
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY
KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. LOWS AT THE COAST SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 60S BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING CLOSE TO 15-20
KNOTS AND WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
BUILD BRIEFLY TO 3-5 FT...AND SCEC HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. NORTH
WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THU/FRI/SAT...WITH STILL A
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN ONSHORE WINDS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH STRENGTHENS AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SERN GOMEX POTENTIALLY MOVES THROUGH THE FL
STRAITS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK CONTINUES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL PLUNGE INTO OUR REGION BEHIND A DRY COLD
FRONT EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SPEEDS AT THE COAST NEAR 15 MPH AND 10-15 MPH INLAND. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT AT INLAND
LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY...AND 25-30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MARGINALLY LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES (GENERALLY 30-35
PERCENT) ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INLAND EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ERC VALUES ARE FAR FROM CRITICAL
VALUES...AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  50  75  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  59  74  55  72 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  56  77  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  64  77  58  75 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  56  80  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  58  82  53  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALSH









000
FXUS62 KJAX 211347
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
945 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
TROF AXIS HAS SETTLED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 80-85 DEG RANGE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND LOWS EXPECTED IN THE 50S BY MORNING AND THE SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FLOW SHOULD ELIMINATE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY MORNING FOG HAS LIFTED AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 10 KNOTS BECOMES LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST THEN STRONGER NORTHWEST
FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES LATER TONIGHT AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FEET.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  52  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  81  58  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  85  56  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  82  60  77  58 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  84  54  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  85  57  82  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/GUILLET






000
FXUS62 KJAX 211347
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
945 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
TROF AXIS HAS SETTLED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 80-85 DEG RANGE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND LOWS EXPECTED IN THE 50S BY MORNING AND THE SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FLOW SHOULD ELIMINATE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY MORNING FOG HAS LIFTED AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 10 KNOTS BECOMES LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST THEN STRONGER NORTHWEST
FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES LATER TONIGHT AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FEET.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  52  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  81  58  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  85  56  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  82  60  77  58 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  84  54  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  85  57  82  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/GUILLET







000
FXUS62 KJAX 210613
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
213 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING SE GA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST.
WITH INCREASING GROUND LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY FOG
WILL PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY INLAND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TNGT/EARLY MORNING WITH
ANY RESIDUAL PRECIP ENDING. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS AFTN FOR MOST
AREAS. UNDER THE DRIER AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S INLAND TO
AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

TNGT/WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA TNGT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WITH NO DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL WITH THE FRONTAL CROSSING. COOL AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE LOWER/MID 50S INLAND WITH 55 TO 60 COAST. SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR
SE GA/NE FL AND LOWER 80S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY POTENTIAL GULF SYSTEM.
THE LATEST EXTENDED MODELS POINT TO THE GULF ENERGY STAYING WELL
TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THIS PATH COULD CHANGE...AND CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN US...WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW FOR LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF COASTAL
SHOWERS...WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW END VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SSI INTO EARLY MORNING.
PATCHES OF MVFR IN BR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NE FL PORTS
09-12Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL AREA WIDE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING WILL BECOME
NW 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...VEERING TO THE
NORTH TNGT. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...A NE WIND SURGE WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...WITH CAUTION LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THE
OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FOR LATE WEEK...WITH AN INCREASING
TREND IN WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN UNDER CAUTION
CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH OFFSHORE/SIDESHORE
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  52  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  81  58  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  85  56  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  82  60  77  58 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  84  54  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  85  57  82  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE







000
FXUS62 KJAX 210139
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
939 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...A SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SE GA THIS
EVE...WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUE AM. WILL PROBABLY HAVE PATCHY
FOG DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN BUT DRY AIR MASS COUPLED WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS WILL HELP MINIMIZE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH 03Z-04Z
WITH LIGHT SSE FLOW IN PLACE LESS THAN 5 KTS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT TO THE
NNW BY 12Z TUE WITH CLEARING CLOUDS FROM NW-SE THROUGH EARLY TUE.
TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY AT SSI
TONIGHT...WITH EARLY MORNING SHALLOW FOG (MVFR) POSSIBLE AT JAX/CRG.
FARTHER INLAND AT GNV/VQQ...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS WERE
ADVERTISED BY 06Z DUE TO SHALLOW FOG WITH TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN
08Z-12Z. LOW CIGS WILL BREAK AND LIFT AFTER SUNRISE UNDER DRIER NNW
FLOW. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING TUE ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...E/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVE WILL SHIFT TO SW
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NW TUE AM FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

RIP CURRENTS: A LOW RISK IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DUE TO AN OFFSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  81  52  74 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  64  79  59  73 /  20  10   0   0
JAX  61  82  57  76 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  67  80  62  77 /  10  10   0   0
GNV  60  82  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  62  84  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ABE/AW













000
FXUS62 KJAX 210139
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
939 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...A SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SE GA THIS
EVE...WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUE AM. WILL PROBABLY HAVE PATCHY
FOG DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN BUT DRY AIR MASS COUPLED WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS WILL HELP MINIMIZE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH 03Z-04Z
WITH LIGHT SSE FLOW IN PLACE LESS THAN 5 KTS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT TO THE
NNW BY 12Z TUE WITH CLEARING CLOUDS FROM NW-SE THROUGH EARLY TUE.
TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY AT SSI
TONIGHT...WITH EARLY MORNING SHALLOW FOG (MVFR) POSSIBLE AT JAX/CRG.
FARTHER INLAND AT GNV/VQQ...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS WERE
ADVERTISED BY 06Z DUE TO SHALLOW FOG WITH TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN
08Z-12Z. LOW CIGS WILL BREAK AND LIFT AFTER SUNRISE UNDER DRIER NNW
FLOW. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING TUE ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...E/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVE WILL SHIFT TO SW
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN NW TUE AM FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

RIP CURRENTS: A LOW RISK IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY DUE TO AN OFFSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  81  52  74 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  64  79  59  73 /  20  10   0   0
JAX  61  82  57  76 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  67  80  62  77 /  10  10   0   0
GNV  60  82  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  62  84  58  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ABE/AW














000
FXUS62 KJAX 201902
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
305 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A COASTAL SHOWER THIS EVENING...

...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS THE REST OF THE WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WEAK TROF WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
BUT THE E/SE ONSHORE FLOW MAY STILL KICK OFF A SHOWER THIS EVENING
MAINLY FROM JACKSONVILLE NORTHWARD TO BRUNSWICK ALONG THE COAST.
MILD AFTERNOON TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGREES WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
70S AFTER SUNSET UNTIL AS CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK APART.

OVERNIGHT...WEAK TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION AND
SKIES WILL START TO THIN OUT TOWARDS MORNING ENDING ANY COASTAL PCPN
THREAT AS SFC WIND FLOW BECOMES LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY. AS THE AIRMASS
COOLS INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S WELL INLAND AND 60S ALONG THE COAST AND
ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN TOWARDS SUNRISE...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH VSBYS IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE...SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE
GRIDS/ZFP AROUND SUNRISE...BUT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM /TUE-WED/...
TROUGHING ALOFT WILL CUTOFF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S...CREATING AN
INCREASINGLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT OVER OUR REGION.
ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE REMAINING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL CREATE LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE
OCT CLIMO...WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED INLAND AND A WEAK AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE KEEPING COASTAL HIGHS NEAR 80.

AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF NEW ENGLAND...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PLUNGE THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUES NIGHT AND WED MORNING. A
TIGHTENING LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE
IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING AND DROPPING LOWS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA...WITH LOWER 50S FORECAST. LOWS ELSEWHERE WILL FALL TO
NEAR CLIMO...WITH 50S INLAND AND LOW/MID 60S IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
DEEPENING N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN
PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WED...WITH HIGHS FALLING
SHORT OF CLIMO OVER SOUTHEAST GA...WITH MID 70S EXPECTED. HIGHS
ELSEWHERE WILL RANGE FROM 75-80 UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER ON WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...DECOUPLING WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING INLAND...WHERE
LOWS IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WILL FALL INTO
THE MID/UPPER 40S. LOWS ELSEWHERE INLAND WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO
THE LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

.LONG TERM /THU-MON/...
LONG-TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/YUCATAN PENINSULA REGION LATER
THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT E/NE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST FL. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THIS
LOW/FRONT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WITH
AN NORTHEASTERLY WIND REGIME ON THURS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70S
REGION-WIDE. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO LOWS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURS...WITH LOWS INLAND IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S...AND ONSHORE
WINDS KEEPING LOWS NEAR 60 AT THE COAST. TEMPS WILL MODERATE ON
FRIDAY AS LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80
INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.

OPTED TO KEEP PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE WEEKEND
GIVEN THE RECENT LONG-TERM MODEL INCONSISTENCY...BUT WE MAY NEED TO
DROP RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND IF CURRENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS
CONTINUE. NEAR CLIMO TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT THIS DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF THE
LOW/FRONT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR BROKEN CIGS AT 3500-4500 FEET WILL LINGER UNTIL SUNSET THEN
BREAK-UP LEAVING JUST HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG BTWN 10-12Z AT ALL SITES AND POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT
KGNV/KVQQ AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
E/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMES SW/W AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SEAS IN
THE 2-4 FT RANGE. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THEN
A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY BECOMING
NELY AND WEAKENING TO 10-15 KNOTS THU/FRI. NO SIGNIFICANT HEADLINES
EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK LINGERS TODAY IN THE ONSHORE FLOW BUT
WILL DOWNGRADE TO LOW ON TUESDAY IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  81  54  75 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  64  80  60  73 /  20  10   0   0
JAX  61  83  59  78 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  67  82  63  79 /  10  10   0   0
GNV  60  84  59  80 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  62  85  62  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALSH









000
FXUS62 KJAX 201333
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
930 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROF EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO
THE WRN ATLC WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND WILL COMBINE TO
BRING ISOLD SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR BUT MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. OTHERWISE ACROSS NE FL/SE GA EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGREES. TONIGHT...EXPECT FAIR SKIES AS
WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND EXPECT
SEASONABLE TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR 60 DEGREES. SOME PATCHY FOG WITH
VSBYS LESS THAN 3 MILES POSSIBLE ACROSS NE FL LATE TONIGHT BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ZFP/GRIDS YET.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOWER LEVEL STRATO-CU DECK CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY
WITH BROKEN CIGS AROUND 4000-6000 FEET WHICH WILL CONTINUE MOST OF
THE DAY. LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT ALONG WITH
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS AT INLAND SITES...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT AT
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING SE/S THIS EVENING THEN W/NW
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK TROF LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE.

RIP CURRENTS: ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE A MODERATE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  57  81  54 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  77  62  80  60 /  10  20  10   0
JAX  80  60  83  59 /  10  10  10   0
SGJ  81  62  82  63 /  10  20  10   0
GNV  82  59  84  59 /  10  20  10   0
OCF  84  61  85  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KJAX 201333
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
930 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROF EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO
THE WRN ATLC WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND WILL COMBINE TO
BRING ISOLD SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR BUT MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. OTHERWISE ACROSS NE FL/SE GA EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGREES. TONIGHT...EXPECT FAIR SKIES AS
WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND EXPECT
SEASONABLE TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR 60 DEGREES. SOME PATCHY FOG WITH
VSBYS LESS THAN 3 MILES POSSIBLE ACROSS NE FL LATE TONIGHT BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ZFP/GRIDS YET.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOWER LEVEL STRATO-CU DECK CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY
WITH BROKEN CIGS AROUND 4000-6000 FEET WHICH WILL CONTINUE MOST OF
THE DAY. LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT ALONG WITH
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS AT INLAND SITES...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT AT
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING SE/S THIS EVENING THEN W/NW
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK TROF LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE.

RIP CURRENTS: ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE A MODERATE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  57  81  54 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  77  62  80  60 /  10  20  10   0
JAX  80  60  83  59 /  10  10  10   0
SGJ  81  62  82  63 /  10  20  10   0
GNV  82  59  84  59 /  10  20  10   0
OCF  84  61  85  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALSH






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