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000
FXUS62 KJAX 010013
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
813 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...MUCH COOLER AND VERY WINDY SATURDAY...
...COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON THUS FAR SATURDAY NIGHT...

.UPDATE...UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DIVE SE
TONIGHT PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONG NW WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. RADARS NOW SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
SW GA MOVING TO THE SE. MODELS MOSTLY KEEP AREA DRY TONIGHT BUT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS(HRRR AND NMM) DO SHOW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW DUE
TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS. MUCH
COLDER AND WINDY FOR SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE
NEAR THE BEACHES AND WATERWAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS. COLD FRONT MOVES OVER
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. MAY SEE A BAND OF CLOUDS IN THE 3000-5000FT
LAYER MOVE BY IN THE 0800-1200Z PERIOD...BUT STILL ANTICIPATE VFR.
W TO NW WINDS 5 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO NW 13
TO 23 KTS AND GUSTY AFTER ABOUT 0800Z.  WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 28-30 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE BY 2300Z

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT NW WINDS OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING WILL GREATLY
INCREASE WITH NEXT COLD FRONT BETWEEN 05Z-10Z TONIGHT. GALE FORCE
GUSTS OFFSHORE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL
BUILD RAPIDLY UP TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE BY 10Z.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  56  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  46  57  42  60 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  45  57  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  50  59  43  62 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  45  58  35  62 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  47  60  36  63 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR CLAY-DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS.

GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-WAYNE.

AM...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/WOLF/WALSH








000
FXUS62 KJAX 311833
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
216 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...MUCH COOLER AND VERY WINDY SATURDAY...
...COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON THUS FAR SATURDAY NIGHT...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
ENTER SE GA THIS EVENING...CROSSING NE FL LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
THEN EXITING TO THE SE BY SATURDAY. VERY LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE
ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT...SO EXPECT JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AND NO PRECIP. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN LATE TONIGHT
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE. EXPECT LOWS TNGT TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S INLAND...WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION POURS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT THE COLDEST DAY
SINCE LAST WINTER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
IN ADDITION...WITH SIGNIFICANT THERMAL PACKING AND SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH FOR MOST AREAS
WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH CLOSER TO THE COAST. THUS...WILL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES EXTENDING ABOUT 50 MILES
INLAND. AREAS FURTHER INLAND WILL STILL EXPERIENCE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTN.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL DROP OFF
OVERNIGHT INLAND...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY. THIS AREA COULD EXPAND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE WIND
DROPS OFF. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AWAY
FROM THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD CORE OF
THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. READINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER QUITE CHILLY NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW READINGS INTO
MID 30S INLAND...BUT FROST POTENTIAL IS NOT AS GREAT WITH DEWPOINTS
NOT AS LOW.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING A MODERATING ONSHORE RETURN FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY
HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME MID DECK CLOUDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TNGT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE...WITH ANY BROKEN PATCHES
REMAINING VFR. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH NW WINDS
10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BY SUNRISE...INCREASING FURTHER TO
18-28 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR MOVING OVER STILL WARM WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. WILL CONTINUE
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE OUTER WATERS LATE TNGT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SCA FOR THE INNER WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW
SCA SUNDAY...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OFFSHORE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR EARLY/MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLDER...WINDIER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE IT WILL STILL REMAIN FAIRLY
DRY ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS THOUGH THIS WEEKEND. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. AS
THIS HIGH MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...A RETURN TO A
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  56  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  46  57  42  60 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  45  57  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  50  59  43  62 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  45  58  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  47  60  36  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR CLAY-DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS.

GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-WAYNE.

AM...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE











000
FXUS62 KJAX 311816
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
216 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...MUCH COOLER AND VERY WINDY SATURDAY...
...COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON THUS FAR SATURDAY NIGHT...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
ENTER SE GA THIS EVENING...CROSSING NE FL LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
THEN EXITING TO THE SE BY SATURDAY. VERY LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE
ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT...SO EXPECT JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AND NO PRECIP. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN LATE TONIGHT
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE. EXPECT LOWS TNGT TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S INLAND...WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION POURS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT THE COLDEST DAY
SINCE LAST WINTER...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
IN ADDITION...WITH SIGNIFICANT THERMAL PACKING AND SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH FOR MOST AREAS
WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH CLOSER TO THE COAST. THUS...WILL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES EXTENDING ABOUT 50 MILES
INLAND. AREAS FURTHER INLAND WILL STILL EXPERIENCE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTN.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL DROP OFF
OVERNIGHT INLAND...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS. THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY. THIS AREA COULD EXPAND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE WIND
DROPS OFF. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AWAY
FROM THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD CORE OF
THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. READINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER QUITE CHILLY NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW READINGS INTO
MID 30S INLAND...BUT FROST POTENTIAL IS NOT AS GREAT WITH DEWPOINTS
NOT AS LOW.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING A MODERATING ONSHORE RETURN FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY
HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL RETURN...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME MID DECK CLOUDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TNGT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE...WITH ANY BROKEN PATCHES
REMAINING VFR. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH NW WINDS
10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BY SUNRISE...INCREASING FURTHER TO
18-28 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR MOVING OVER STILL WARM WATER WILL
RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. WILL CONTINUE
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE OUTER WATERS LATE TNGT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SCA FOR THE INNER WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW
SCA SUNDAY...BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OFFSHORE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR EARLY/MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH SPEEDS UNDER HEADLINE CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLDER...WINDIER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE IT WILL STILL REMAIN FAIRLY
DRY ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS THOUGH THIS WEEKEND. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. AS
THIS HIGH MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...A RETURN TO A
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  56  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  46  57  42  60 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  45  57  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  50  59  43  62 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  45  58  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  47  60  36  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR CLAY-DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS.

GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-WAYNE.

AM...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE








000
FXUS62 KJAX 311240
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
840 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTN. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 70S THIS AFTN. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY BRIEF LIVED IFR/MVFR CIGS AT GNV WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS...OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL. EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED
CLOUDS TNGT WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT NW WINDS
6-10 KT THIS AFTN...WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS LATE TNGT/EARLY
SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
CAUTION LEVELS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
SUBSTANTIALLY LATE TNGT/SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT...WITH GALES LIKELY OFFSHORE SATURDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  41  56  36 /   0  10   0   0
SSI  74  48  57  42 /   0  10   0   0
JAX  75  45  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  74  51  60  44 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  75  46  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  76  47  61  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE/GUILLET








000
FXUS62 KJAX 310833
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
433 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...TURNING COLDER AND WINDY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS
IN THE PROCESS OF ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. THE DRY AIR IS
WINNING THE BATTLE AND AS A RESULT THE STRATOCU FIELD IS
DISSIPATING NORTH OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE...AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...HAS MOSTLY SUPPRESSED ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH REGIONAL RADARS CURRENTLY SHOW A COUPLE OF
WEAK SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE FROM PALM COAST IN FLAGLER COUNTY. HAVE
REMOVED PRECIP FROM ALL LAND AREAS GIVEN THESE LATEST TRENDS. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO THOUGH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER OUR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. THIS HALLOWEEN EVENING WILL FEATURE
COMFORTABLE TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S DURING THE EARLY EVENING
FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY LATE EVENING. AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BUT SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL ENSURE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THIS FRONT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COLD AND DRY AIR.
TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE FRONT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ACTUALLY OCCUR JUST AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE 30S ACROSS INLAND AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
GAINESVILLE TO JACKSONVILLE.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION USHERING IN A
COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS ON BLUSTERY NW WINDS. WITH STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S
ACROSS MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. WINDS DECREASE INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL
BREEZY ALONG THE COAST. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE
RIVER AND COAST.

SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER SO IT WILL NOT FEEL NEARLY AS CHILLY AS SATURDAY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 INLAND AND AROUND 50 ALONG THE RIVER AND
COAST.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MEAN LAYER (1000-500 MB) HIGH BUILDS INTO THE SE U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK THEN QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE BY MID WEEK. A DEVELOPING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH A CONSIDERABLE
MODERATION IN TEMPS ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY WHEN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
OTHERWISE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION. AMENDMENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
TREND AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH SEAS
INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FEET. A UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
USHER IN A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COLD
AIR MOVING OVER WARM WATER WILL RESULT IN 850 DELTA T VALUES
AROUND 25 DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. GIVEN THESE VALUES...FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE SEEM TO BE A GIVEN ACROSS OUR OFFSHORE ZONES ON
SATURDAY. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN HOISTED BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS MAY SUBSIDE A LITTLE SOONER THAN THIS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE USED FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES. WINDS/SEAS
WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.FIRE WX...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS THIS WEEKEND.
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TRANSPORT WINDS WILL YIELD HIGH
DISPERSIONS OF NEAR 100 MOST AREAS SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
ERC VALUES AND FUEL MOISTURE VALUES FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINE
CONDITIONS BUT APPEARS THEY WILL FALL SHORT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  41  56  36 /   0  10   0   0
SSI  74  48  57  42 /   0  10   0   0
JAX  75  45  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  74  51  60  44 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  75  46  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  76  47  61  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHULER/PETERSON/













000
FXUS62 KJAX 310113
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
913 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...

AN ACTIVE ROUND OF EVENING TSTORMS IMPACTED MAINLY COASTAL NE FL
WHEN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MET THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER
DUVAL COUNTY BETWEEN 4-5 PM AIDED BY A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GOMEX. DRY AIR INFILTRATING THE MID LEVELS AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUPPORTED STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE WITH DOWNPOURS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE 00Z JAX RAOB
ACTUALLY HAD A K INDEX OF 37...HIGHER THAN MANY CONVECTIVE DAYS IN
THE SUMMERTIME.

THE STRONGEST PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ESE OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS AND IMPACT SOUTHERN ST JOHNS...FLAGLER AND PUTNAM COUNTIES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY AIR RAPIDLY ERODING POST- FRONTAL CLOUDS FROM THE
WNW OVER OUR INLAND GA ZONES AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WHERE SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ALREADY. THE RAPID REFRESH (HRRR) MODEL HAD AN EXCELLENT
HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS EVENING...AND LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD
ITS SOLUTION FOR PRECIP TRENDS TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BACK NNW AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPS WORKING
SOUTHWARD WITH MINS IN THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN
TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS OUR SE FL ZONES AND THE FL ATLANTIC COAST
WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE PRECIP SHIELD PUSHES
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS BUT A ROUND OF TEMPO MVFR DUE TO TRAILING
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT GNV AND VQQ. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY
TONIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. SPEEDS WERE AROUND 10 KTS
OR LESS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...WITH A
PROGRESSIVE INCREASE IN NNW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 10-15 KTS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ESE THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT OVER THE ADJACENT FLORIDA WATERS.

A REINFORCING BUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH COLDER AND WINDY NORTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OF THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE AND
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES NORTH AND
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  48  72  43  56 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  57  72  48  57 /  40  20   0   0
JAX  55  74  46  59 /  40  20   0   0
SGJ  60  74  51  60 /  70  20   0   0
GNV  54  75  46  60 /  50  10   0   0
OCF  55  76  47  61 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/ZIBURA/WALSH








000
FXUS62 KJAX 301859
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
255 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...MUCH COOLER AND WINDY THIS WEEKEND...

.NEAR TERM...

REST OF TODAY...SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS EXPECTED TO BE
PRIMARILY OVER COASTAL SE GA TO NE FL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NE FL WITH SFC TROUGHING EXTENDING ALONG THE
COASTAL ZONES. A SLOW MOVING ATLC SEA BREEZE MAY PROVIDE THE IMPETUS
FOR A FEW STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER NE FL BTN 4PM AND 7PM. IN
ADDITION...SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED FROM E CENTRAL GA TO THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL BROAD SCALE LIFT TO THE CONVECTION
OVER NE FL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY CLOUDS AND ANY PRECIP.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL GA TO ERN
GULF OF MEXICO WITH QUITE MOIST AIRMASS BELOW 500 MB AROUND 70% OR
BETTER OVER THE ERN ZONES. WEAK MESO LOW MAY FORM OVER THE LOWER
ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN FROM ABOUT CLAY SWD SWD. ANTICIPATE SCT
CONVECTION OVER NE FL WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY IN COASTAL SE GA. THE
BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SCT CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE OFFSHORE
AFTER 06Z. TEMPS TO FALL TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESIDUAL PRECIP WILL END DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AS THE COLD FRONT
EXITS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREA
WIDE BY FRIDAY AFTN. A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE IN
THE WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S. A REINFORCING...AND MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER SE GA FRIDAY EVENING...CROSSING NE FL DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH NO DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...EXPECT
NO PRECIPITATION AND ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S COAST.

SAT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ENTER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...WITH THE COLDEST DAY SINCE LAST WINTER ON TAP. LATEST
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE NUDGING EVEN LOWER FOR SAT AFTN...AND WITH
850 MB TEMPS FALLING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
COOLER END OF THE GUIDANCE SWATH...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST OF SE GA/NE FL...WITH LOWER 60S FOR NORTH
CENTRAL FL. IN ADDITION...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN NW WINDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH.
A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

SAT NIGHT...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE...BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD AIR IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY SAT NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND AND 40-45 COAST. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS SATURDAY MORNING...WIND
CHILLS WILL STILL DROP INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RECORD LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE COLD FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER STANDARDS...LOWS WILL LIKELY COME UP JUST SHY OF
SETTING ANY RECORDS.

SUNDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER SO IT WILL NOT FEEL NEARLY AS CHILLY AS SATURDAY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE
AROUND 40 INLAND.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONSHORE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
TEMPS WILL ALSO MODERATE CONSIDERABLY AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
LONE SHOWER OR TWO NEAR THE COAST BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS WAY TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE PRECIP OVER LAND AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL
REBOUND...WITH HIGHS 70-75 MONDAY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S
FOR MIDWEEK. LOWS BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT WILL WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CUMULUS AND BROKEN MID CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z FRI AS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NE FL SLOWLY SLIDES SWD AND
LIFT OCCURS ABOVE THE FRONTAL SFC PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.
SCT SHOWERS AND FEW TSTMS EXPECTED IN NE FL WITH LESS CHANCE FOR SSI.
A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS NEXT 6-12 HRS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE
IN ANY SPECIFIC PERIOD IS UNCERTAIN. SHOULD BE INCREASING CHANCE OF
PREVAILING VFR AFTER 12Z FRI AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON NW FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRI TO NEAR N/NW 15-20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS PUSHING 3-5 FT...BUT STILL SHY OF ANY ADVISORY WITH THIS
PACKAGE. THEN...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS WITH EVEN SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON
SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN GALE WARNING IS NOT HIGH SO A GALE WATCH
IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. MODELS STILL SHOW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY.
WINDS/SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ERC VALUES AND
FUEL MOISTURE VALUES FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINE CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  48  72  43  56 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  57  72  48  57 /  30  10   0   0
JAX  55  74  46  59 /  40  10   0   0
SGJ  60  74  51  60 /  50  20   0   0
GNV  54  75  46  60 /  30  10   0   0
OCF  55  76  47  61 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/SHASHY







000
FXUS62 KJAX 301418
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1015 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION
TODAY WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD ENABLE SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS NE FL...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND E OF A LINE FROM JAX TO GNV. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY DEVELOP INTO THE MORNING AS VISIBLE IMAGERY
ALREADY SUGGESTS DEEPENING CUMULIFORM CLOUDS ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND
AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AVAILABLE CAPE IN THE 1000-1500 RANGE
ACROSS NE FL AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG OR BRIEFLY SEVERE
STORM AROUND THE PUTNAM/FLAGLER/ST JOHNS COUNTY AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THIS POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPS LOWER THAN PRIOR DAYS AS THE
FRONT MOVES IN AS WELL AS ADDED CLOUD COVER. MINOR TWEAKS TO
INCREASE POPS A BIT OVER NE FL BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND HRRR/NARRE
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS CURRENTLY BUT LIFR AT GNV AS OF 14Z AS LOW
CLOUDS AND VSBY STILL AFFECTING THE TERMINAL. ANTICIPATE SEEING
IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR AT GNV AROUND 16Z AND THEN VFR WITH CONVECTION
IN THE VICINITY IN THE AFTN FOR TAFS...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR NE FL
TAFS AND LOWER FOR SSI. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR ANY TEMPO GROUPS
ATTM FOR NE FL TERMINALS. SLOW CLEARING VFR SKIES LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NLY ABOUT 10-15 KT DURING THE DAY AS
FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SEWD. SEAS ~2-4 FT. A SHARPER INCREASE TO N/NW
15-20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY. FOR MORNING UPDATE WILL MAKE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND AND WEATHER FOR TODAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK DUE LOW SEAS AND VERY LITTLE SWELL ACTIVITY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  48  74  40 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  75  58  72  47 /  30  20   0   0
JAX  80  54  75  45 /  30  30   0   0
SGJ  78  59  74  50 /  40  30  10   0
GNV  81  53  75  45 /  40  30   0   0
OCF  82  55  77  46 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/ALLEN/GUILLET







000
FXUS62 KJAX 300824
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
424 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...TURNING MUCH COLDER AND WINDY THIS WEEKEND...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...LEADING EDGE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO INLD SE GA JUST SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN AND THE FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE FADED
AND AT MOST A SPRINKLE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
NE FL...FLOW IS STILL LIGHT SOUTHWEST AND TEMPS REMAIN MILD IN THE
60S AND THE LIGHT/MOIST FLOW OFF THE NORTHEAST GOMEX MAY TRIGGER
SOME LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG BUT VSBYS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 1
MILE...SO NO SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG EXPECTED.

TODAY...FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD AND WILL BECOME
ORIENTED MORE NE-SW AND WILL STRETCH FROM GAINESVILLE TO
JACKSONVILLE TO THE SE GA COASTAL WATERS BY MID-DAY. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LIFT IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ALONG THE NORTH
GOMEX COAST AND INTO THE NE FL/SE GA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP TO
RE-IGNITE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACRS NE FL AND
COASTAL SE GA AS MID LEVEL COOLING AND INSTABILITY TAKES PLACE AND
RE-ACTS TO DIURNAL HEATING. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS AROUND 30%
(WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE) BUT SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE PROJECTING SOME HIGHER POPS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JAX-GNV...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS AT THIS TIME. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...AND NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY OF THE ISOLD STORM
ACTIVITY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY AND WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH DIURNAL
HEATING TO HELP WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THEY PUSH INTO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS NE FL...BUT THE COOLER MID/UPPER 70S EXPECTED ACRS SE GA.

TONIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY/LIFT ALOFT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLC
THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO
EAST AND WILL BE MAINLY IN THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER THE INLAND AREAS. SOME
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN WITH LOWS IN THE 45-55
RANGE INLAND AND 55-65 RANGE ALONG THE COAST/ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN.

.SHORT TERM /FRI-SAT/...

FRIDAY...TRANSITION DAY AHEAD OF RE-INFORCING COLD AIRMASS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EXPECT A COOLER AND DRIER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

HALLOWEEN EVENING WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
60S EARLY EVENING FALLING INTO THE 50S BY LATE EVENING. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT INITIALLY...BUT THIS WILL
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A STRONG EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT WILL DELIVER A TASTE OF WINTER
THIS WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL TRAIL THE
FRONT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SATURDAY TO GET OFF TO A RATHER
BRISK START. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA...MOST LIKELY NEAR THE COAST AND ALONG THE ST
JOHNS RIVER WHERE MIXING WILL BE THE STRONGEST. THE INCREASE IN WINDS
WILL BEGIN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION...SENDING WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN
INTO THE 30S FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 AND MOST LIKELY NEVER WILL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD AIR IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY
EVENING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
INLAND TO THE MID 40S AT THE COAST. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS STRONG AS SATURDAY MORNING...WIND CHILLS WILL STILL DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. RECORD LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE COLD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER
STANDARDS...WE WILL LIKELY COME UP JUST SHY OF SETTING ANY
RECORDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUN-WED/...
THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS THOUGH WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER SO IT
WILL NOT FEEL NEARLY AS CHILLY AS SATURDAY. LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
INLAND.

ONSHORE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
TEMPS WILL ALSO MODERATE CONSIDERABLY AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
LONE SHOWER OR TWO NEAR THE COAST BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS WAY TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE PRECIP OVER LAND AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE LOWER 80S
ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL GO FROM BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT TO ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MIXTURE OF SCATTERED VFR MID/HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION. THE
CURRENT LIGHT SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY TO PUSH IN SOME IFR CIGS AT KGNV BTWN 09-12Z SO HAVE
LEFT IN TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW. OTHERWISE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR
TODAY IS 20-30% CHANCE OF AN AFTN/EVE SHOWER AT FL TAF SITES AND
HAVE KEPT CURRENT VCSH IN TAF SET...WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDER THE THREAT REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF TAF FORECAST.
SKIES STILL EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SLOW CLEARING VFR SKIES LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT...WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. A
SHARPER INCREASE TO N/NW 15-20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH SEAS MAYBE
PUSHING 3-5 FT...BUT STILL SHY OF ANY ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE.

LONG RANGE MARINE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS WITH EVEN SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  48  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  75  58  72  47 /  30  20   0   0
JAX  80  54  75  45 /  30  30   0   0
SGJ  78  59  74  50 /  30  30  10   0
GNV  81  53  75  45 /  30  30   0   0
OCF  82  55  77  46 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/









000
FXUS62 KJAX 300108
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
908 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

...COOLER AIRMASS ON THE WAY...

.UPDATE...

A FEW BROKEN BANDS OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS
WERE EDGING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND IMPACTING OUR NW GA
ZONES FROM JEFF DAVIS TO ATKINSON COUNTY. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DWINDLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY LOW/MID
LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS REFLECTED IN THE 00Z JAX/TAE
RAOBS AND INSTABILITY LESSENS WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST TRENDS OF LOW 20-30% RAIN CHANCES
WITH ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR OUR SE GA ZONES MAINLY N OF WAYCROSS...THEN SHOWERS
FADING INLAND WITH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH SUNRISE THU. A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL TRAIL THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER SE GA BY
DAYBREAK THU WITH LOW 60S OVER NE FL WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS MOST PROBABLE OVER THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HRS
DESPITE THICKENING PATCHY OF CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS VERY WEAK THIS EVENING NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN...AND THUS EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS THE FRONT NEARS
THE FL-GA STATE-LINE THROUGH SUNRISE. LEFT PRECIP OUT OF THE SSI
TAF TONIGHT FOR NOW. FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST PROBABLE AT GNV AND
POSSIBLY VQQ. THE HRRR ADVERTISED LOW IFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT UNDER SW FLOW OUT OF THE
GOMEX JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...THEN THE LOW CIGS DRIFTING
EASTWARD TOWARD GNV AND POSSIBLY VQQ THROUGH SUNRISE. BY EARLY
AFTN THU...THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHWARD OVER NE FL...AND
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK FORCING COMBINED WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE VCSH IN THE NE FL TAFS. NNE FLOW
DEVELOPS THU EVENING...WITH THE NAM12 BUFR SOUNDING SUGGESTING
LOWER MVFR CIGS MOVING INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY EARLY THURSDAY. A REINFORCING
BUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH
COLDER AND WINDY NORTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
WEST OF THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL VEER ONSHORE AND RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THU WITH NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  76  49  72 /  30  10   0   0
SSI  64  73  56  72 /  10  20  10  10
JAX  62  78  55  74 /  10  30  20  10
SGJ  65  78  60  75 /  10  30  30  10
GNV  60  80  56  76 /   0  30  30  10
OCF  60  82  57  77 /   0  30  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/NELSON/WALSH








000
FXUS62 KJAX 291850
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

...MUCH COOLER AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IS BAND OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS ACROSS CTRL GA THAT NONE OF THE HI-RES
MODELS RECOGNIZES. 12Z FFC SOUNDING SHOWED A LAYER OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THAT SUPPORTS THIS CONVECTION, WHILE WATER VAPOR
SUGGESTS SOME LIFT IN RIGHT-REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET SPREADING
ACROSS CTRL GA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THRU THE EVENING. ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIP TONIGHT THE FURTHER S AND E ONE GOES. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT MAINLY NE FL
SOUTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR.

FOR THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR AT 12Z MOVING SE.
MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP SOME PRECIP ALONG AND ON COOL SIDE OF FRONT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW
CHANCE POPS MAINLY ALONG AND SE OF A JAX-CTY LINE. ANTICIPATING
HIGH TEMPS IN MID-UPR 70S N OF I-10 CORRIDOR, AND UPR 70S-LWR 80S
S OF I-10.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN...WITH
RESIDUAL PRECIP ACROSS NE FL ENDING BY MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY FRIDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND 55-60 COAST EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MAINLY CLEAR AND
COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S INLAND AND 50-55 COAST.

SAT/SAT NIGHT...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL OCCUR...WITH MODELS
CONTINUING THE TREND MUCH COOLER IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE COOLEST...WITH THE GFS A BIT
MILDER. GIVEN CONTINUED REASONABLE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...WILL
TREND TOWARD THE COOLER ECMWF...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER
50S ACROSS INLAND SE GA...WITH 60-65 FOR MOST OF NE FL...MAKING
THIS THE COOLEST DAY SINCE EARLY SPRING. IN ADDITION...WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS WELL ADDING TO
THE CHILL. EXPECT CHILLY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 INLAND WITH
40S ON THE COAST. SOME RESIDUAL WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL...WITH
MINIMUM WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS WINDS TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S COAST. MODERATION WILL
CONTINUE FOR EARLY/MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM FROM THE
LOWER/MID 70S MONDAY...TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S BY MIDWEEK.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS NE FL MAINLY S OF INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. IN CURRENT
TAF SET...INCLUDED TEMPO FOG GROUP FOR KGNV...WHERE LATEST HRRR
MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z.
TAFS SHOW WIND SHIFT TO NW AS COLD FRONT MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FOR THU/FRI..BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO
REMAIN UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR
THE WEEKEND...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
WINDS AND SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY FOR ALL THE
WATERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MARGINAL GALES FOR THE
OUTER WATERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL FALL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. WITH
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ERC VALUES
AND FUEL MOISTURE FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINE CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  76  49  72 /  20  10   0   0
SSI  64  73  56  72 /  10  20  10  10
JAX  62  78  55  74 /  10  30  20  10
SGJ  65  78  60  75 /  10  30  30  10
GNV  60  80  56  76 /   0  30  30  10
OCF  60  82  57  77 /   0  30  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/WOLF/GUILLET








000
FXUS62 KJAX 291236
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
836 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...PATCHY FOG EARLY WILL LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY...WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDINESS IN DIFFLUENT RIGHT-REAR-QUAD OF UPPER JET ALONG WITH
CUMULUS THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY GIVEN SOME INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON 12Z SOUNDINGS. BAND OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY
NW GA TO CTRL AL WILL WORK SOUTHESATWARD...BUT REMAIN WELL WEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BAND WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS IT TRIES TO MOVE OVER OUR
INTERIOR SE GA COUNTIES. CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS
WELL. NO CHANGES PLANNED IN FORECAST UPDATE EXCEPT TO REMOVE
MENTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS PATCHY FOG CLEARS.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES PLANNED IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS AND 2-3 FT SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING PRIOR
TO PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  84  57  76  48 /  10  30  10  10
SSI  82  64  74  57 /   0  10  20  10
JAX  85  62  78  55 /   0  10  30  20
SGJ  83  65  78  61 /   0  10  30  30
GNV  85  61  81  55 /   0   0  30  30
OCF  87  60  83  58 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/ALLEN/GUILLET








000
FXUS62 KJAX 290812
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
412 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

...CONTINUED MILD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY...

...CHANCE OF SHOWERS SE GA TONIGHT AND NE FL THURSDAY...

...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...A COMBINATION OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF FOG EXPECTED BY SUNRISE AND
EXPECT JUST PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WITH MAINLY VSBYS IN THE 1-5 MILE
RANGE AND LESS DENSE FOG EXPECTED...EXCEPT SOME PATCHY DENSE MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND NE FL SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...ALONG THE
I-75 CORRIDOR IN THE GAINESVILLE/OCALA AREA.

TODAY...BAND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH ACROSS NE FL/SE GA IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE BAND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SOLID BUT ENOUGH BREAKS TO CONTINUE TO CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY AND
THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MILD MAX
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...WELL ABOVE CLIMO...BUT STILL
PROBABLY JUST SHY OF ANY RECORD HIGHS WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
INTO SE GA THIS EVENING WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DUE
TO LINGERING DIURNAL HEATING THEN A FEW SPRINKLES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE MOISTURE SETTLES NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER BY
MORNING SO HAVE KEPT IN SILENT 10% POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GENERALLY MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER TO MID 60S
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS INLD NE FL.

.SHORT TERM /THU-FRI/...

THURSDAY...MOISTURE ALONG PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING BUT IS NOT ACTIVATED UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON WHEN LIFT/ENERGY DIGS IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF...AND WILL LIKELY HELP TO TRIGGER WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS NE FL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS UNTIL SUNSET. AN ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT OVERALL STILL EXPECTING
ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PCPN AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
COOLER MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 70S ACROSS SE GA WHILE NE FL WILL PUSH
UP INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO AROUND 60 IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
AND ALONG THE NE FL COAST. FRIDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH
RELATIVELY SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SAT-TUE/...

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS
HAVE TRENDED MUCH STRONGER WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE TRAILED
BY WINDY CONDITIONS AS COLD DRY AIR POURS INTO THE REGION. THE
FRONT WILL REACH SE GA FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN PRESS SOUTH OVER NE
FLORIDA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE. SATURDAY MORNING
WILL BRING A TASTE OF WINTER AS THE WIND COMBINES WITH THE COLD
AIR TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 30S ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO JACKSONVILLE.

SATURDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE A RATHER CHILLY DAY. WE HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES TO RESULT IN MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S...BUT THIS IS LIKELY STILL TOO WARM AS GUIDANCE IS
STARTING TO INDICATE THAT TEMPS WILL NOT EVEN GET OUT OF THE 50S.
BUT WE DECIDED TO WAIT FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS TO MONITOR
CONSISTENCY BEFORE LOWERING TEMPS ANY FURTHER. NEVERTHELESS...IT
WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER BECAUSE IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT IT WILL BE A CLEAR
NIGHT AND COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE SO TEMPS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY
SATURDAY EVENING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S WELL
INLAND. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS SATURDAY
MORNING...WIND CHILLS WILL STILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S FOR MOST
AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

WE WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AND WINDS
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 60S THOUGH
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL ALSO MODERATE CONSIDERABLY AS MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A STRAY SHOWER OR
TWO OFFSHORE COULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE PRECIP
OVER THE LAND AREAS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SLIGHT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS
MORNING MAY END UP KEEPING VSBYS FROM DROPPING TOWARDS SUNRISE...SO
HAVE BACKED OFF TO ONLY MVFR VSBYS AT KJAX/KCRG/KSSI WHILE STILL
LEAVING IN A TEMPO POSSIBILITY FOR IFR VSBYS AT KVQQ/KGNV. OTHERWISE
ANOTHER VFR DAY EXPECTED AFTER 14Z WITH JUST INCREASES IN HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT S/SW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH LOCAL SELY SEA BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS TO 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM MARINE: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS WITH EVEN SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...OCTOBER 29TH...
JACKSONVILLE, FL      87/1984
GAINESVILLE, FL       89/2009
ALMA, GA              88/1996
ST. SIMONS ISLAND, GA 85/1996

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  84  57  76  48 /  10  30  10  10
SSI  82  64  74  57 /   0  10  20  10
JAX  85  62  78  55 /   0  10  30  20
SGJ  83  65  78  61 /   0  10  30  30
GNV  85  61  81  55 /   0   0  30  30
OCF  87  60  83  58 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/









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