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000
FXUS62 KJAX 180822
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
422 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM...

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS. THERE ARE AREAS OF  LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING. AFTER AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN LATE SAT AM WHICH WILL INITIALLY HELP
SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND AND WARM FRONT
TO SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT GET GOING WILL WILL TEND TO FADE DURING THE
EVENING...BUT MAY LINGER ALONG THE FL EAST COAST AND SE GA DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW MERGERS AND WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY...A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AS A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO RACE NE
PUTTING THE AREA IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. WITH ADDED LIFT FROM APPROACHING TROUGH...AND MODEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL USE LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS...WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS SE GA. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS THEY WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING MAX HEATING. SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 80S BEFORE THE ONSET OF
SHOWERS/STORMS.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING AS A WEAK
WAVE PUSHES TO THE NE AND HEATING IS LOST. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO MAKE ITS APPROACH MONDAY. A MID LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COMBINING WITH SMALL SCALE BOUNDARY
AND SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS LATE MONDAY MORNING/AFTN. THE FRONT WILL ENTER SE GA
MONDAY EVENING...CROSSING NE FL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRIER AIR
WILL WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SE GA
MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH RESIDUAL CHANCE POPS FOR NE
FL...DECREASING BY LATER TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME COOLER
AIR BEGINNING TO WORK INTO SE GA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO
THE SOUTH...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE COLD FRONT WILL DECAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
BEFORE STALLING. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR MIDWEEK CLOSEST TO
THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
MIDWEEK. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING SW FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTN PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING WITH
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PRODUCE OCNL IFR
CONDITIONS TIL AROUND 14Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND
16Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND HAVE VCTS AT GNV BEGINNING AT
18Z. HAVE VCSH AT REMAINING TERMINALS ALTHOUGH THESE MAY BE CHANGED
TO VCTS AT NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS RESULTS IN LIGHT
WINDS... BECOMING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SUNDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  67  81  65 /  40  40  80  20
SSI  78  68  80  69 /  30  30  60  40
JAX  84  68  85  69 /  50  30  60  30
SGJ  81  69  82  69 /  40  30  60  30
GNV  84  67  85  67 /  50  20  60  20
OCF  86  68  86  68 /  30  20  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ZA




000
FXUS62 KJAX 180822
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
422 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM...

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS. THERE ARE AREAS OF  LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING. AFTER AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN LATE SAT AM WHICH WILL INITIALLY HELP
SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND AND WARM FRONT
TO SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT GET GOING WILL WILL TEND TO FADE DURING THE
EVENING...BUT MAY LINGER ALONG THE FL EAST COAST AND SE GA DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW MERGERS AND WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY...A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AS A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO RACE NE
PUTTING THE AREA IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. WITH ADDED LIFT FROM APPROACHING TROUGH...AND MODEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL USE LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS...WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS SE GA. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS THEY WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING MAX HEATING. SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 80S BEFORE THE ONSET OF
SHOWERS/STORMS.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING AS A WEAK
WAVE PUSHES TO THE NE AND HEATING IS LOST. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO MAKE ITS APPROACH MONDAY. A MID LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COMBINING WITH SMALL SCALE BOUNDARY
AND SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS LATE MONDAY MORNING/AFTN. THE FRONT WILL ENTER SE GA
MONDAY EVENING...CROSSING NE FL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRIER AIR
WILL WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SE GA
MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH RESIDUAL CHANCE POPS FOR NE
FL...DECREASING BY LATER TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME COOLER
AIR BEGINNING TO WORK INTO SE GA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO
THE SOUTH...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE COLD FRONT WILL DECAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
BEFORE STALLING. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR MIDWEEK CLOSEST TO
THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
MIDWEEK. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING SW FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTN PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING WITH
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PRODUCE OCNL IFR
CONDITIONS TIL AROUND 14Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND
16Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND HAVE VCTS AT GNV BEGINNING AT
18Z. HAVE VCSH AT REMAINING TERMINALS ALTHOUGH THESE MAY BE CHANGED
TO VCTS AT NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS RESULTS IN LIGHT
WINDS... BECOMING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SUNDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  67  81  65 /  40  40  80  20
SSI  78  68  80  69 /  30  30  60  40
JAX  84  68  85  69 /  50  30  60  30
SGJ  81  69  82  69 /  40  30  60  30
GNV  84  67  85  67 /  50  20  60  20
OCF  86  68  86  68 /  30  20  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ZA





000
FXUS62 KJAX 180822
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
422 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM...

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS. THERE ARE AREAS OF  LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING. AFTER AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN LATE SAT AM WHICH WILL INITIALLY HELP
SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND AND WARM FRONT
TO SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT GET GOING WILL WILL TEND TO FADE DURING THE
EVENING...BUT MAY LINGER ALONG THE FL EAST COAST AND SE GA DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW MERGERS AND WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY...A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AS A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO RACE NE
PUTTING THE AREA IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. WITH ADDED LIFT FROM APPROACHING TROUGH...AND MODEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL USE LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS...WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS SE GA. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS THEY WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING MAX HEATING. SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 80S BEFORE THE ONSET OF
SHOWERS/STORMS.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING AS A WEAK
WAVE PUSHES TO THE NE AND HEATING IS LOST. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO MAKE ITS APPROACH MONDAY. A MID LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COMBINING WITH SMALL SCALE BOUNDARY
AND SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS LATE MONDAY MORNING/AFTN. THE FRONT WILL ENTER SE GA
MONDAY EVENING...CROSSING NE FL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRIER AIR
WILL WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SE GA
MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH RESIDUAL CHANCE POPS FOR NE
FL...DECREASING BY LATER TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME COOLER
AIR BEGINNING TO WORK INTO SE GA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO
THE SOUTH...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE COLD FRONT WILL DECAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
BEFORE STALLING. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR MIDWEEK CLOSEST TO
THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
MIDWEEK. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING SW FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTN PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING WITH
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PRODUCE OCNL IFR
CONDITIONS TIL AROUND 14Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND
16Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND HAVE VCTS AT GNV BEGINNING AT
18Z. HAVE VCSH AT REMAINING TERMINALS ALTHOUGH THESE MAY BE CHANGED
TO VCTS AT NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS RESULTS IN LIGHT
WINDS... BECOMING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SUNDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  67  81  65 /  40  40  80  20
SSI  78  68  80  69 /  30  30  60  40
JAX  84  68  85  69 /  50  30  60  30
SGJ  81  69  82  69 /  40  30  60  30
GNV  84  67  85  67 /  50  20  60  20
OCF  86  68  86  68 /  30  20  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ZA





000
FXUS62 KJAX 180127
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

...WARM/WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...

.UPDATE... NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER ALABAMA HAS
TRIGGERED A LARGE MASS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WHICH IS HEADED TOWARDS
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND WILL IMPACT MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...IT MAY PUSH A FEW ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR OF NORTH FLORIDA THAT MAY SKIRT THE JAX METRO AREA LATER
TONIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS SE GA.
MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. LATE
TONIGHT STILL EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH VSBYS
POSSIBLY DOWN INTO THE 1-3 MILE RANGE...ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOG FOLLOWING THE RAINFALL ACROSS SE GA...BUT OVERALL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND ENOUGH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXED
TO KEEP MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY DENSE FOG FORMING. THE TIMING OF THIS
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY IS
CAUSING ALL SORTS OF PROBLEMS WITH THE HI-RES MODELS TRYING TO
RESOLVE SATURDAY`S CONVECTION AND BELIEVE THEY ARE ALL WAY TOO HIGH
WITH MORNING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SE GA/NE FL AND BELIEVE SOME WEAK
SUBSIDENCE (DOWNWARD MOTION) LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL
MAKE FOR LOWER RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MORNING (20-30%) BECOMING
HIGHER WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WARMER WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUMP DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 06Z AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS. SHOWERS MAY IMPACT SSI BETWEEN 06Z-10Z...WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LIFR
CIGS OF 200-400 FT ARE EXPECTED AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS FROM
AROUND 10Z THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AT VQQ. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR TOWARDS 14Z...WITH VFR
EXPECTED AROUND 17Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. A SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP AT SSI...CRG...AND SGJ TOWARDS 17Z...WITH ONSHORE WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 17Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND INTENSITY WAS TOO LOW FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN VICINITY SHOWERS FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING...CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY UNTIL
LOCAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES AT 10-15 KNOTS SET UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW
SWELLS IMPACTING THE COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  82  67  82 /  60  30  30  70
SSI  66  78  69  79 /  50  20  30  60
JAX  66  85  68  84 /  20  40  30  60
SGJ  67  84  69  80 /  10  40  30  50
GNV  66  87  67  84 /  20  50  30  60
OCF  67  88  68  86 /  20  50  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 180127
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

...WARM/WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...

.UPDATE... NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER ALABAMA HAS
TRIGGERED A LARGE MASS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WHICH IS HEADED TOWARDS
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND WILL IMPACT MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...IT MAY PUSH A FEW ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR OF NORTH FLORIDA THAT MAY SKIRT THE JAX METRO AREA LATER
TONIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS SE GA.
MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. LATE
TONIGHT STILL EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH VSBYS
POSSIBLY DOWN INTO THE 1-3 MILE RANGE...ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOG FOLLOWING THE RAINFALL ACROSS SE GA...BUT OVERALL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND ENOUGH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXED
TO KEEP MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY DENSE FOG FORMING. THE TIMING OF THIS
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY IS
CAUSING ALL SORTS OF PROBLEMS WITH THE HI-RES MODELS TRYING TO
RESOLVE SATURDAY`S CONVECTION AND BELIEVE THEY ARE ALL WAY TOO HIGH
WITH MORNING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SE GA/NE FL AND BELIEVE SOME WEAK
SUBSIDENCE (DOWNWARD MOTION) LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL
MAKE FOR LOWER RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MORNING (20-30%) BECOMING
HIGHER WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WARMER WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUMP DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 06Z AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS. SHOWERS MAY IMPACT SSI BETWEEN 06Z-10Z...WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LIFR
CIGS OF 200-400 FT ARE EXPECTED AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS FROM
AROUND 10Z THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AT VQQ. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR TOWARDS 14Z...WITH VFR
EXPECTED AROUND 17Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. A SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP AT SSI...CRG...AND SGJ TOWARDS 17Z...WITH ONSHORE WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 17Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND INTENSITY WAS TOO LOW FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN VICINITY SHOWERS FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING...CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY UNTIL
LOCAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES AT 10-15 KNOTS SET UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW
SWELLS IMPACTING THE COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  82  67  82 /  60  30  30  70
SSI  66  78  69  79 /  50  20  30  60
JAX  66  85  68  84 /  20  40  30  60
SGJ  67  84  69  80 /  10  40  30  50
GNV  66  87  67  84 /  20  50  30  60
OCF  67  88  68  86 /  20  50  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 171853
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
253 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
AWAY... WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE. A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST THOUGH THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75...AS SOME CLEARING ALLOWS THE
AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE WILL BE THE LEADING FACTORS WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ELSEWHERE...CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP AIRMASS
STABLE ENOUGH FOR JUST SHOWERS.

WITH LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW PATCHES OF FOG ALSO POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 ACROSS SE GA...TO 65 TO
70 OVER NE FL.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL START TO LIFT DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR SUPPRESSING CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
SEABREEZES DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND IN CONCERT WITH WARM FRONT
LIFTING TO THE NORTH LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
WITH BEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL
DECREASE MARKEDLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLD
TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO SE GA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW SUNDAY...WITH MOIST SLY FLOW PREVAILING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. AN ELONGATED AND STRETCHED VORT LOBE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF RESULTING IN INCREASED
CONVECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED AS RESULT WITH INCREASED LIFT WITH DIFFLUENCE FLOW
ALOFT. WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 80S. AS THE ELONGATED SHORT WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE INTO THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC...AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PUSH TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE PROFILE
AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
AFTN SHOWERS/STORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...DECAYING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WORKS IN...PRECIP CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA AND EXTREME NE FL.
WILL DECREASE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL
TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SE GA. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEARLY AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL SLIGHTLY...LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR COMFORTABLY WARM CONDITIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNEDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO MID
60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO A PREVAILING MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW BREAKS OF VFR POSSIBLE. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT AREA TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
UPPER ENERGY MOVES ACROSS. AMPLE LOWER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO LOWERING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR THE SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
AREA WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  81  67  82 /  40  30  30  70
SSI  65  76  69  79 /  20  20  30  60
JAX  65  81  68  84 /  20  40  30  60
SGJ  66  79  69  80 /  20  40  30  50
GNV  66  84  67  84 /  20  50  30  60
OCF  67  85  68  86 /  30  50  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CORDERO/STRUBLE/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 171853
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
253 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
AWAY... WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE. A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST THOUGH THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75...AS SOME CLEARING ALLOWS THE
AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE WILL BE THE LEADING FACTORS WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ELSEWHERE...CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP AIRMASS
STABLE ENOUGH FOR JUST SHOWERS.

WITH LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW PATCHES OF FOG ALSO POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 ACROSS SE GA...TO 65 TO
70 OVER NE FL.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL START TO LIFT DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR SUPPRESSING CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
SEABREEZES DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND IN CONCERT WITH WARM FRONT
LIFTING TO THE NORTH LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
WITH BEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL
DECREASE MARKEDLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLD
TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO SE GA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW SUNDAY...WITH MOIST SLY FLOW PREVAILING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. AN ELONGATED AND STRETCHED VORT LOBE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF RESULTING IN INCREASED
CONVECTION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED AS RESULT WITH INCREASED LIFT WITH DIFFLUENCE FLOW
ALOFT. WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 80S. AS THE ELONGATED SHORT WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE INTO THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC...AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PUSH TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE PROFILE
AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
AFTN SHOWERS/STORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...DECAYING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WORKS IN...PRECIP CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA AND EXTREME NE FL.
WILL DECREASE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL
TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SE GA. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEARLY AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL SLIGHTLY...LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR COMFORTABLY WARM CONDITIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNEDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S INLAND TO MID
60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO A PREVAILING MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW BREAKS OF VFR POSSIBLE. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT AREA TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
UPPER ENERGY MOVES ACROSS. AMPLE LOWER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO LOWERING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FOR THE SATURDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
AREA WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  81  67  82 /  40  30  30  70
SSI  65  76  69  79 /  20  20  30  60
JAX  65  81  68  84 /  20  40  30  60
SGJ  66  79  69  80 /  20  40  30  50
GNV  66  84  67  84 /  20  50  30  60
OCF  67  85  68  86 /  30  50  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CORDERO/STRUBLE/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 171331
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
931 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...

EARLY MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS MORNING...BUT LOW
STRATUS WILL LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
WAVE. EXPECT THIS AREA TO BREAK UP SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES EAST...AS
IT RUNS INTO REMAINING SURFACE RIDGING.

ONCE THIS AREA PASSES SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST.
THIS WILL ACT TO HELP DISSIPATE LOW CLOUD COVERAGE...AND DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE...COULD LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY. EXPECT
TO SEE AN AREA OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
INITIATE IN THE WEST...AIDED BY DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE...WITH THIS AREA THEN MIGRATING EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AGAIN TODAY...AS THE STRATIFORM
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD READINGS DOWN. BUT...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME CLEARING LATE...READINGS COULD REBOUND QUICKLY DURING THE
LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE...HOLDING ONTO WARMER AFTERNOON
HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING...WITH A TREND
TOWARD MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS
AREA TAF SITES LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON
WHETHER THERE ARE SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  61  81  66 /  50  40  30  30
SSI  71  65  76  69 /  50  40  20  40
JAX  75  65  81  68 /  50  40  30  40
SGJ  76  66  79  69 /  50  30  30  40
GNV  80  66  84  67 /  60  30  50  30
OCF  82  67  84  68 /  60  30  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE





000
FXUS62 KJAX 170832
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
432 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.NEAR TERM...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEDGE OVER THE AREA BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS WEAK LOW
OFFSHORE THE SE U.S. COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT THIS MORNING DUE
TO CLOUD COVER. A SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GULF COAST WILL LEAD
TO A ROUND OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON... WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER ESPECIALLY N CNTL FL WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
DESTABILIZATION. SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS...WILL MOVE SE...AND
GRADUALLY FADE OUT IN THE EVENING AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG

SATURDAY...AFTER AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LIFT...SHORT
WAVE RIDGING AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN SAT AM
WHICH WILL HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND AND
WARM FRONT TO SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT GET
GOING WILL AGAIN FADE OUT IN THE EVENING AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RESIDUAL CONVECTION
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY...WITH THE AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. MOIST SW FLOW...ALONG WITH
IMPULSES AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTN. WILL USE LIKELY
POPS FOR MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS A NIT LESSER COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S. PRECIP WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE IMPULSE MOVES OFF TO THE NE AND HEATING
IS LOST. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WILL PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...DECAYING ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS WORKS IN...PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SE GA AND EXTREME NE FL. WILL DECREASE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SE
GA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEARLY AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL
SLIGHTLY...LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR COMFORTABLY WARM
CONDITIONS. MILD AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS COOLING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY AROUND 15Z-16Z AT GNV AND AROUND
18Z AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. HAVE VCTS AT MOST TERMINALS AFT 18Z-19Z
WITH TEMPO GROUPS POSSIBLE FOR LOWER VSBY FROM SHOWERS AND TS.

&&

.MARINE...WEDGE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS AS WEAK LOW OFF THE SE U.S.
COAST MOVES NORTH. LIGHTER ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED WITH SEAS GRADUALLY
DECREASING    AND NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND
VEER OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND FRONT
TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS
AND LINGERING SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  61  81  66 /  60  40  30  30
SSI  73  65  76  69 /  60  40  20  40
JAX  76  65  81  68 /  60  40  30  40
SGJ  76  66  79  69 /  60  30  30  40
GNV  80  66  84  67 /  60  30  50  30
OCF  83  67  84  68 /  60  30  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ZA




000
FXUS62 KJAX 170832
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
432 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.NEAR TERM...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEDGE OVER THE AREA BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS WEAK LOW
OFFSHORE THE SE U.S. COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT THIS MORNING DUE
TO CLOUD COVER. A SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GULF COAST WILL LEAD
TO A ROUND OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON... WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER ESPECIALLY N CNTL FL WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
DESTABILIZATION. SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS...WILL MOVE SE...AND
GRADUALLY FADE OUT IN THE EVENING AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG

SATURDAY...AFTER AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LIFT...SHORT
WAVE RIDGING AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN SAT AM
WHICH WILL HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND AND
WARM FRONT TO SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT GET
GOING WILL AGAIN FADE OUT IN THE EVENING AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RESIDUAL CONVECTION
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY...WITH THE AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. MOIST SW FLOW...ALONG WITH
IMPULSES AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTN. WILL USE LIKELY
POPS FOR MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS A NIT LESSER COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S. PRECIP WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE IMPULSE MOVES OFF TO THE NE AND HEATING
IS LOST. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WILL PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...DECAYING ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS WORKS IN...PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SE GA AND EXTREME NE FL. WILL DECREASE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SE
GA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEARLY AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL
SLIGHTLY...LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR COMFORTABLY WARM
CONDITIONS. MILD AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS COOLING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY AROUND 15Z-16Z AT GNV AND AROUND
18Z AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. HAVE VCTS AT MOST TERMINALS AFT 18Z-19Z
WITH TEMPO GROUPS POSSIBLE FOR LOWER VSBY FROM SHOWERS AND TS.

&&

.MARINE...WEDGE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS AS WEAK LOW OFF THE SE U.S.
COAST MOVES NORTH. LIGHTER ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED WITH SEAS GRADUALLY
DECREASING    AND NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND
VEER OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND FRONT
TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS
AND LINGERING SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  61  81  66 /  60  40  30  30
SSI  73  65  76  69 /  60  40  20  40
JAX  76  65  81  68 /  60  40  30  40
SGJ  76  66  79  69 /  60  30  30  40
GNV  80  66  84  67 /  60  30  50  30
OCF  83  67  84  68 /  60  30  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ZA





000
FXUS62 KJAX 170040
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
840 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015


.UPDATE...SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY DEEPENING OFF THE SC COAST. COOL LOW LEVEL WEDGE
WITH OVERRUNNING SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 05Z AT GNV...
AND MAY ALSO IMPACT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS FROM AROUND 02Z-
06Z. MVFR CIGS AT JAX..SSI..AND GNV WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR BY
03Z. IFR CIGS AT CRG...VQQ...AND SGJ WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
10Z...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO LIFR POSSIBLE TOWARDS 10Z.
EXPECT LIFR/IFR CIGS OF 400-500 FT TO CONTINUE AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 14Z...WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED AT GNV AFTER 14Z AND IFR CIGS CONTINUING ELSEWHERE
THROUGH AROUND 17Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE REGIONAL TERMINALS AFTER 17Z FRIDAY. NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AFTER 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TONIGHT AS MODELS INDICATE. SEAS WILL BE IN 3 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE SO WILL REPLACE ADVISORY WITH SCEC HEADLINE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  74  63  80 /  40  60  20  30
SSI  61  73  65  77 /  30  50  20  20
JAX  64  76  66  79 /  30  60  30  30
SGJ  65  76  67  79 /  30  60  30  30
GNV  66  81  65  84 /  40  60  30  50
OCF  66  82  67  84 /  50  60  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/NELSON/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 170040
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
840 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015


.UPDATE...SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY DEEPENING OFF THE SC COAST. COOL LOW LEVEL WEDGE
WITH OVERRUNNING SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID
60S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 05Z AT GNV...
AND MAY ALSO IMPACT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS FROM AROUND 02Z-
06Z. MVFR CIGS AT JAX..SSI..AND GNV WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR BY
03Z. IFR CIGS AT CRG...VQQ...AND SGJ WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
10Z...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO LIFR POSSIBLE TOWARDS 10Z.
EXPECT LIFR/IFR CIGS OF 400-500 FT TO CONTINUE AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 14Z...WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
CIGS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED AT GNV AFTER 14Z AND IFR CIGS CONTINUING ELSEWHERE
THROUGH AROUND 17Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE REGIONAL TERMINALS AFTER 17Z FRIDAY. NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AFTER 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TONIGHT AS MODELS INDICATE. SEAS WILL BE IN 3 TO 5 FOOT
RANGE SO WILL REPLACE ADVISORY WITH SCEC HEADLINE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  74  63  80 /  40  60  20  30
SSI  61  73  65  77 /  30  50  20  20
JAX  64  76  66  79 /  30  60  30  30
SGJ  65  76  67  79 /  30  60  30  30
GNV  66  81  65  84 /  40  60  30  50
OCF  66  82  67  84 /  50  60  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/NELSON/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 161847
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
247 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...

NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR A COOL AND MOIST
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE FAR
SOUTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THERE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
TO THE MID 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.


&&

.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...A ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN DOMINATES THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLED ALONG THE FLORIDA-
GEORGIA STATE LINE. A WEAK WEDGE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER
GEORGIA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE/IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONTAL SURFACE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY INTERACTS WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. STEERING CURRENTS WILL
DRIVE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST AND THEY WILL
GRADUALLY FADE OUT BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH DRIER AIR AT LOWER LEVELS MOVING IN EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GREATEST AERIAL COVERAGE WILL BE INLAND NEAR AND WEST OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 301. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
ON SUNDAY AS A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM NEAR KANSAS CITY BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND DIURNAL HEATING LEADING TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
STORMS MAY BE STRONG. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY
UP NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT IN THE SERIES
OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER TEXAS AND
MOVE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...

WITH A PERSISTENT MOIST NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO
REMAIN THROUGH THIS 18Z TAF PERIOD. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR KGNV.

&&

.MARINE...

AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  74  63  80 /  40  60  20  30
SSI  61  73  65  77 /  30  50  20  20
JAX  64  76  66  79 /  30  60  30  30
SGJ  65  76  67  79 /  30  60  30  30
GNV  66  81  65  84 /  40  60  30  50
OCF  66  82  67  84 /  50  60  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.

&&

$$

SANDRIK/STRUBLE





000
FXUS62 KJAX 161321
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
921 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

A MOIST NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THIS FLOW WRAPS AROUND A LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORT WAVE
ENERGY COUPLED WITH WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST. HAVE TRIMMED MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS TO REFLECT EXPECTED STRATUS
COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED NORTH TODAY DUE TO A LOW
JUST NORTHEAST OF REGION. AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  61  76  61 /  20  20  50  20
SSI  72  62  73  63 /  10  10  50  20
JAX  77  64  79  63 /  20  20  60  30
SGJ  76  66  77  66 /  30  20  50  30
GNV  82  64  81  62 /  40  30  60  30
OCF  84  67  83  65 /  50  50  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/SANDRIK




000
FXUS62 KJAX 161321
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
921 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

A MOIST NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THIS FLOW WRAPS AROUND A LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK SHORT WAVE
ENERGY COUPLED WITH WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST. HAVE TRIMMED MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOS TO REFLECT EXPECTED STRATUS
COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED NORTH TODAY DUE TO A LOW
JUST NORTHEAST OF REGION. AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  61  76  61 /  20  20  50  20
SSI  72  62  73  63 /  10  10  50  20
JAX  77  64  79  63 /  20  20  60  30
SGJ  76  66  77  66 /  30  20  50  30
GNV  82  64  81  62 /  40  30  60  30
OCF  84  67  83  65 /  50  50  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/SANDRIK





000
FXUS62 KJAX 160824
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
424 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

NORTHEAST SURGE...DUE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE TO OUR NORTH AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST
OF OUR COASTAL WATERS...IS DRIVING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR
AREA THIS MORNING. THE END RESULT WILL BE COOLER CONDITIONS AND
MUCH LESS PRECIP. HAVE SIDED WITH THE DRIER GFS GIVEN THE MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH BLANKET OF LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY AT TIMES AT THE BEACHES TODAY.

MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE
AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THAT THE SURGE IS COMING IN
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL BE ACROSS MARION COUNTY WHERE THE BEST HEATING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SE GA TONIGHT
WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SE GA AND
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF NE FL. MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL LINGER ACROSS NE
FL AND BE THE FOCUS AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT-NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS AS IT COMBINES WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND AFTERNOON HEATING. SHOWERS/STORMS...WILL MOVE SE...AND
GRADUALLY FADE OUT IN THE EVENING AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN EARLY SATURDAY WHICH WILL
HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND WHICH WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY MAINLY INLAND NEAR AND WEST OF U.S. HWY 301. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT GET GOING WILL AGAIN FADE OUT IN THE EVENING
AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AS A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID WEST BEGINS TO RACE NE. A DEEP AND
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WHICH
WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVE. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS THEY WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING MAX HEATING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. TUESDAY MAY BE THE MOST DRIEST DAY
DURING THE 7 DAY PERIOD...WITH THE SAME FRONT WORKING ITS WAY UP
NORTHWARD AGAIN AS WARM FRONT WHERE PRECIP CHANCES COMMENCE ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN STARTING UP AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY KEEP STRATOCU
CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. PRIMARILY EXPECTING
CEILINGS TO CHECK IN AT MVFR LEVELS BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. EXPECTING MUCH LESS PRECIP COVERAGE TODAY WITH MAINLY
ONLY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES. A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWER EXISTS AT GNV BUT THIS
ONLY WARRANTS VCSH FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...

THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS AT GRAYS REEF BUOY (NE ~ 20 KTS)
INDICATES THAT THE NORTHEAST SURGE IS QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS TO GO ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WHICH YIELDS NEAR SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SE GA
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A
CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THE GA WATERS. NE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
OVER THE NE FL WATERS TODAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW SCEC CRITERIA. SCEC CONDITIONS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SE GA WATERS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST
EAST OF THE WATERS ONLY SLOW DRIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.
WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCEC CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND
THEN REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  61  76  61 /  30  40  50  20
SSI  72  62  73  63 /  10  20  50  20
JAX  77  64  79  63 /  20  30  60  30
SGJ  76  66  77  66 /  30  20  50  30
GNV  82  64  81  62 /  50  30  60  30
OCF  84  67  83  65 /  60  30  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/PETERSON/




000
FXUS62 KJAX 160824
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
424 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

NORTHEAST SURGE...DUE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE TO OUR NORTH AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST
OF OUR COASTAL WATERS...IS DRIVING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO OUR
AREA THIS MORNING. THE END RESULT WILL BE COOLER CONDITIONS AND
MUCH LESS PRECIP. HAVE SIDED WITH THE DRIER GFS GIVEN THE MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH BLANKET OF LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY AT TIMES AT THE BEACHES TODAY.

MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE
AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THAT THE SURGE IS COMING IN
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL BE ACROSS MARION COUNTY WHERE THE BEST HEATING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SE GA TONIGHT
WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SE GA AND
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF NE FL. MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL LINGER ACROSS NE
FL AND BE THE FOCUS AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT-NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS AS IT COMBINES WITH SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND AFTERNOON HEATING. SHOWERS/STORMS...WILL MOVE SE...AND
GRADUALLY FADE OUT IN THE EVENING AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN EARLY SATURDAY WHICH WILL
HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND WHICH WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY MAINLY INLAND NEAR AND WEST OF U.S. HWY 301. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT GET GOING WILL AGAIN FADE OUT IN THE EVENING
AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AS A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID WEST BEGINS TO RACE NE. A DEEP AND
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WHICH
WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVE. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS THEY WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING MAX HEATING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. TUESDAY MAY BE THE MOST DRIEST DAY
DURING THE 7 DAY PERIOD...WITH THE SAME FRONT WORKING ITS WAY UP
NORTHWARD AGAIN AS WARM FRONT WHERE PRECIP CHANCES COMMENCE ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ZONES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN STARTING UP AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY KEEP STRATOCU
CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. PRIMARILY EXPECTING
CEILINGS TO CHECK IN AT MVFR LEVELS BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. EXPECTING MUCH LESS PRECIP COVERAGE TODAY WITH MAINLY
ONLY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES. A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWER EXISTS AT GNV BUT THIS
ONLY WARRANTS VCSH FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...

THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS AT GRAYS REEF BUOY (NE ~ 20 KTS)
INDICATES THAT THE NORTHEAST SURGE IS QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS TO GO ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WHICH YIELDS NEAR SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SE GA
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A
CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THE GA WATERS. NE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
OVER THE NE FL WATERS TODAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW SCEC CRITERIA. SCEC CONDITIONS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SE GA WATERS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST
EAST OF THE WATERS ONLY SLOW DRIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA.
WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCEC CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND
THEN REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  61  76  61 /  30  40  50  20
SSI  72  62  73  63 /  10  20  50  20
JAX  77  64  79  63 /  20  30  60  30
SGJ  76  66  77  66 /  30  20  50  30
GNV  82  64  81  62 /  50  30  60  30
OCF  84  67  83  65 /  60  30  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/PETERSON/





000
FXUS62 KJAX 160151
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
951 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING. MOST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END EXCEPT ACROSS OUR
SE FL COUNTIES AND OFFSHORE WATERS. AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
EXTENDING DOWN TO ALABAMA BEGINS TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...WE WILL LOSE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW HOURS. AT THAT POINT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SPLIT ON EARLY MORNING RAIN CHANCES. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS POP
BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM. GFS SEEMS
TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS ACROSS OUR SW FLORIDA
COUNTIES. EXAMINING THE MODEL FIELDS... THE GFS SHOWS A SMALL
VORT MAX OVER THE CENTRAL GULF CURRENTLY...AND ADVECTS THAT INTO
OUR AREA BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING. IR SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THAT VORT MAX.
THEREFORE I WILL KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY MORNING MAINLY FOR THE SW FLORIDA COUNTIES. WE WILL STAY
OVERCAST TONIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST AS COLDER AIR TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY IN ALONG A BACKDOOR
FRONT. WHILE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LIKELY
GIVEN THE OVERCAST SKIES. PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO
RAIN COOLED AIR AND MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. MVFR VIS POSSIBLE DUE TO SOME PATCHY FOG. CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO DROP FROM MVFR TO IFR AT MOST TERMINALS AS A BACKDOOR
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS. THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TIGHTENING GRADIENT AROUND A RIDGE OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BEGINS TO INCREASE NORTH WINDS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR OUR NORTHERN MOST WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  77  61  76 /  80  50  40  50
SSI  67  75  63  71 /  80  40  40  40
JAX  69  79  65  77 /  80  50  40  50
SGJ  69  78  66  77 /  60  50  40  50
GNV  67  83  64  81 /  60  70  70  60
OCF  68  84  67  83 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WALSH/ZIBURA/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 151857
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
257 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY...

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT...

THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COUPLED WITH SURFACE
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...AND
BEGIN TO FORM INTO A CLOSED LOW TONIGHT. AS THIS LOW CLOSES OFF
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE SHOULD BRING CONVECTION TO AN END
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE LOW
PASSES THE FLOW WILL TURN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN LOW STRATUS FORMATION.

&&


.SHORT TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THU-THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS INLAND NE FL AS A
COASTAL TROUGH FORMS OFFSHORE AND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA. CONVECTION MAY GET A LITTLE LATER
START THURSDAY WITH STRATUS OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER IMPULSE IN
THE MID LYR WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK FROM THE GOM INTO NE FL
IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING IN CONCERT WITH ANTECEDANT
MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW. THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME STRONG STORMS NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS
INLAND NE FL PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BEGIN FADE OUT IN THE EVENING... AFTER THE
PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL LINGER ACROSS THE
FL/GA BORDER REGION AND WILL BE THE FOCUS AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS AND BRIEF
GULLYWASHERS AS IT COMBINES WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND AFTERNOON
HEATING. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL GRADUALLY FADE OUT IN THE EVENING
AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS INDICATE SOME SLIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT SATURDAY WITH
LOW LVL S-SE FLOW. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS (POPS 35 TO 50 PERCENT) WITH AN INLAND
MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. GFS/ECMWF BOTH FORECAST A MID LEVEL
TROUGH TO MIGRATE TOWARD THE WRN GULF COAST WITH SW FLOW IN THE
MID-UPR LVLS AND INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH UPTICK OF PRECIP CHANCES IN THE 50
TO 70 PERCENT RANGE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT
DAYTIME HIGHS HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. THE FRONT
WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. TUESDAY MAY BE
THE MOST DRIEST DAY DURING THE 7 DAY PERIOD...WITH THE SAME FRONT
WORKING ITS WAY UP NORTHWARD AGAIN AS WARM FRONT WHERE PRECIP
CHANCES COMMENCE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ZONES BY
WENDESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN
STARTING UP AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL TURN THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  77  61  76 /  60  50  40  50
SSI  65  75  63  71 /  70  40  40  40
JAX  67  79  65  77 /  60  50  40  50
SGJ  68  78  66  77 /  50  50  40  50
GNV  66  83  64  81 /  40  70  70  60
OCF  66  84  67  83 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/CORDERO




000
FXUS62 KJAX 151857
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
257 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY...

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT...

THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COUPLED WITH SURFACE
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...AND
BEGIN TO FORM INTO A CLOSED LOW TONIGHT. AS THIS LOW CLOSES OFF
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE SHOULD BRING CONVECTION TO AN END
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE LOW
PASSES THE FLOW WILL TURN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN LOW STRATUS FORMATION.

&&


.SHORT TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THU-THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS INLAND NE FL AS A
COASTAL TROUGH FORMS OFFSHORE AND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA. CONVECTION MAY GET A LITTLE LATER
START THURSDAY WITH STRATUS OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER IMPULSE IN
THE MID LYR WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK FROM THE GOM INTO NE FL
IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING IN CONCERT WITH ANTECEDANT
MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW. THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME STRONG STORMS NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS
INLAND NE FL PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BEGIN FADE OUT IN THE EVENING... AFTER THE
PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL LINGER ACROSS THE
FL/GA BORDER REGION AND WILL BE THE FOCUS AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS AND BRIEF
GULLYWASHERS AS IT COMBINES WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND AFTERNOON
HEATING. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL GRADUALLY FADE OUT IN THE EVENING
AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS INDICATE SOME SLIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT SATURDAY WITH
LOW LVL S-SE FLOW. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS (POPS 35 TO 50 PERCENT) WITH AN INLAND
MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. GFS/ECMWF BOTH FORECAST A MID LEVEL
TROUGH TO MIGRATE TOWARD THE WRN GULF COAST WITH SW FLOW IN THE
MID-UPR LVLS AND INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH UPTICK OF PRECIP CHANCES IN THE 50
TO 70 PERCENT RANGE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT
DAYTIME HIGHS HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. THE FRONT
WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. TUESDAY MAY BE
THE MOST DRIEST DAY DURING THE 7 DAY PERIOD...WITH THE SAME FRONT
WORKING ITS WAY UP NORTHWARD AGAIN AS WARM FRONT WHERE PRECIP
CHANCES COMMENCE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ZONES BY
WENDESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN
STARTING UP AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL TURN THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  77  61  76 /  60  50  40  50
SSI  65  75  63  71 /  70  40  40  40
JAX  67  79  65  77 /  60  50  40  50
SGJ  68  78  66  77 /  50  50  40  50
GNV  66  83  64  81 /  40  70  70  60
OCF  66  84  67  83 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/CORDERO





000
FXUS62 KJAX 151857
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
257 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY...

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT...

THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COUPLED WITH SURFACE
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...AND
BEGIN TO FORM INTO A CLOSED LOW TONIGHT. AS THIS LOW CLOSES OFF
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE SHOULD BRING CONVECTION TO AN END
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE LOW
PASSES THE FLOW WILL TURN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN LOW STRATUS FORMATION.

&&


.SHORT TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THU-THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS INLAND NE FL AS A
COASTAL TROUGH FORMS OFFSHORE AND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA. CONVECTION MAY GET A LITTLE LATER
START THURSDAY WITH STRATUS OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER IMPULSE IN
THE MID LYR WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK FROM THE GOM INTO NE FL
IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING IN CONCERT WITH ANTECEDANT
MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW. THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME STRONG STORMS NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS
INLAND NE FL PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BEGIN FADE OUT IN THE EVENING... AFTER THE
PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL LINGER ACROSS THE
FL/GA BORDER REGION AND WILL BE THE FOCUS AGAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS AND BRIEF
GULLYWASHERS AS IT COMBINES WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND AFTERNOON
HEATING. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL GRADUALLY FADE OUT IN THE EVENING
AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS INDICATE SOME SLIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT SATURDAY WITH
LOW LVL S-SE FLOW. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS (POPS 35 TO 50 PERCENT) WITH AN INLAND
MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. GFS/ECMWF BOTH FORECAST A MID LEVEL
TROUGH TO MIGRATE TOWARD THE WRN GULF COAST WITH SW FLOW IN THE
MID-UPR LVLS AND INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH UPTICK OF PRECIP CHANCES IN THE 50
TO 70 PERCENT RANGE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT
DAYTIME HIGHS HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. THE FRONT
WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. TUESDAY MAY BE
THE MOST DRIEST DAY DURING THE 7 DAY PERIOD...WITH THE SAME FRONT
WORKING ITS WAY UP NORTHWARD AGAIN AS WARM FRONT WHERE PRECIP
CHANCES COMMENCE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ZONES BY
WENDESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM PATTERN
STARTING UP AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

A SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL TURN THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  77  61  76 /  60  50  40  50
SSI  65  75  63  71 /  70  40  40  40
JAX  67  79  65  77 /  60  50  40  50
SGJ  68  78  66  77 /  50  50  40  50
GNV  66  83  64  81 /  40  70  70  60
OCF  66  84  67  83 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/CORDERO




000
FXUS62 KJAX 151326
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
926 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ENERGY WILL COUPLE WITH INCREASING
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW...EXPECT
HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH CONVECTION...ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT AREA TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...LEADING TO REDUCED
CIGS/VIS.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  64  77  61 /  70  50  40  40
SSI  78  66  75  63 /  70  60  40  40
JAX  83  67  79  65 /  70  50  50  50
SGJ  82  68  78  66 /  70  50  50  40
GNV  85  67  83  63 /  60  30  60  40
OCF  86  68  84  67 /  60  20  60  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE




000
FXUS62 KJAX 151326
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
926 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ENERGY WILL COUPLE WITH INCREASING
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW...EXPECT
HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH CONVECTION...ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT AREA TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...LEADING TO REDUCED
CIGS/VIS.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  64  77  61 /  70  50  40  40
SSI  78  66  75  63 /  70  60  40  40
JAX  83  67  79  65 /  70  50  50  50
SGJ  82  68  78  66 /  70  50  50  40
GNV  85  67  83  63 /  60  30  60  40
OCF  86  68  84  67 /  60  20  60  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE





000
FXUS62 KJAX 151326
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
926 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ENERGY WILL COUPLE WITH INCREASING
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW...EXPECT
HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH CONVECTION...ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT AREA TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...LEADING TO REDUCED
CIGS/VIS.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  64  77  61 /  70  50  40  40
SSI  78  66  75  63 /  70  60  40  40
JAX  83  67  79  65 /  70  50  50  50
SGJ  82  68  78  66 /  70  50  50  40
GNV  85  67  83  63 /  60  30  60  40
OCF  86  68  84  67 /  60  20  60  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE





000
FXUS62 KJAX 151326
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
926 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ENERGY WILL COUPLE WITH INCREASING
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW...EXPECT
HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH CONVECTION...ALONG WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT AREA TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...LEADING TO REDUCED
CIGS/VIS.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  64  77  61 /  70  50  40  40
SSI  78  66  75  63 /  70  60  40  40
JAX  83  67  79  65 /  70  50  50  50
SGJ  82  68  78  66 /  70  50  50  40
GNV  85  67  83  63 /  60  30  60  40
OCF  86  68  84  67 /  60  20  60  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE




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