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000
FXUS62 KJAX 020927
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
527 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY...

...FLOOD WATCH STILL IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA...

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH MONDAY MORNING)...

A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN OVER APALACHEE
BAY. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK BANDS DEVELOPING OVER THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST. WHILE SIGNIFICANT AREAL CLOUD SHIELD WILL
LIMIT SURFACE INSTABILITY...DEEPENING OF THE LOW AND SUBSEQUENT
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REACH
20 TO 25 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. AS THE LOW
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP. BANDS THAT DEVELOP WILL TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...CAUSING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE WE
HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FL WATCH FOR INTERIOR NORTH FL THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT)...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE NE TO ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS IT
GETS PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. LINGERING TROUGHING
ACROSS THE AREA INTERACTING WITH TROPICAL AIR RESULTS IN A
CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NE FL.
DRIER AIR ACROSS SE GA WILL RESULT IN LOWER POPS AND HOTTER
TEMPS...IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TO ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND WILL HAVE A RETURN TO MORE
SCATTERED DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION EACH DAY. POPS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN NE FL AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN SE GA.


&&

.AVIATION...

CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR LATE INTO THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW TO AROUND 15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTN. MOST CONFIDENCE IN GNV SEEING HEAVY SHOWERS TSTORMS
FROM MORN THROUGH EARLY AFTN. EXPECT LATER TIMING FOR THE EAST
COAST TERMINALS...AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...

AS A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE EAST
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 20 KNOTS  AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCEC
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEARSHORE AS WELL. THREAT REMAINS FOR TURBULENT
WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WHEN SURFACE LOW
FINALLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST.


RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK DUE TO COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTH
SHORE CURRENT AND SMALL EASTERLY SWELL AS NOTED BY THE CAPE
CANAVERAL BUOY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  74  96  74 /  40  20  20  10
SSI  85  77  89  78 /  70  40  50  30
JAX  86  76  91  74 /  70  50  50  30
SGJ  85  77  88  76 /  60  60  60  30
GNV  84  74  90  74 /  70  60  60  30
OCF  84  74  88  74 /  80  60  60  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ALACHUA-COLUMBIA-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WALSH/PETERSON




000
FXUS62 KJAX 020927
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
527 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY...

...FLOOD WATCH STILL IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA...

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH MONDAY MORNING)...

A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN OVER APALACHEE
BAY. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK BANDS DEVELOPING OVER THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST. WHILE SIGNIFICANT AREAL CLOUD SHIELD WILL
LIMIT SURFACE INSTABILITY...DEEPENING OF THE LOW AND SUBSEQUENT
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REACH
20 TO 25 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. AS THE LOW
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP. BANDS THAT DEVELOP WILL TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...CAUSING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE WE
HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FL WATCH FOR INTERIOR NORTH FL THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT)...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE NE TO ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS IT
GETS PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. LINGERING TROUGHING
ACROSS THE AREA INTERACTING WITH TROPICAL AIR RESULTS IN A
CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NE FL.
DRIER AIR ACROSS SE GA WILL RESULT IN LOWER POPS AND HOTTER
TEMPS...IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TO ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND WILL HAVE A RETURN TO MORE
SCATTERED DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION EACH DAY. POPS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN NE FL AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN SE GA.


&&

.AVIATION...

CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR LATE INTO THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW TO AROUND 15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AS SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTN. MOST CONFIDENCE IN GNV SEEING HEAVY SHOWERS TSTORMS
FROM MORN THROUGH EARLY AFTN. EXPECT LATER TIMING FOR THE EAST
COAST TERMINALS...AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...

AS A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE EAST
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 20 KNOTS  AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCEC
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEARSHORE AS WELL. THREAT REMAINS FOR TURBULENT
WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WHEN SURFACE LOW
FINALLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST.


RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK DUE TO COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTH
SHORE CURRENT AND SMALL EASTERLY SWELL AS NOTED BY THE CAPE
CANAVERAL BUOY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  74  96  74 /  40  20  20  10
SSI  85  77  89  78 /  70  40  50  30
JAX  86  76  91  74 /  70  50  50  30
SGJ  85  77  88  76 /  60  60  60  30
GNV  84  74  90  74 /  70  60  60  30
OCF  84  74  88  74 /  80  60  60  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ALACHUA-COLUMBIA-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WALSH/PETERSON





000
FXUS62 KJAX 020149
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
949 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 CORRIDOR UNTIL SUN MORNING...

.UPDATE...SFC DATA SHOWS BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
FROM PENSACOLA TO NEAR PERRY. THIS FEATURE HAS CHANGED OR DRIFTED
SLIGHTLY NNEWD TODAY. A SMALL TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION REMAINS...ONE
OF THEM W OF GAINESVILLE THROUGH GILCHRIST COUNTY AND THE OTHER
FROM NRN ATKINSON TO JEFF DAVIS AND APPLING COUNTIES. THE FORMER
HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE
IN THE NE GULF WHILE LATTER IS DEVELOPED FROM DIURNAL INSTABILITY
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND HAS NOW WEAKENED RAPIDLY. MOST OF THE
AREA HAS BEEN WORKED OVER FROM DIURNAL HEATING SO THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL HAS DROPPED TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OR LESS. DUE TO THE
LOW PRES FEATURE...ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETAINED FOR
AREAS W OF I-75 OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND IS SAME AREA WHERE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. THIS CHANCE
IS HIGHEST OVER GILCHRIST COUNTY AND PERHAPS SRN SUWANNEE AND WRN
MARION COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY FOR TAFS EXCEPT PROBABLY
FOR SSI. OCNL MVFR CIG CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A GOOD CHANCE
OF CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY FOR GNV AREA AND MENTIONED
TEMPO GROUP IN TSRA 14Z-18Z. ADDITIONAL TEMPO MAY BE NEEDED AT
REST OF TAFS AS OUR CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE S-SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE ROUGH SUNDAY WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT. SCEC IS CONTD FOR OFFSHORE
WATERS TONIGHT...WITH SCA POSSIBLE THERE ON SUNDAY. SEAS NEAR 3 FT
NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4-6 FT OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RIP CURRENT THREAT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  90  74  95 /  50  30  30  30
SSI  76  85  75  85 /  20  50  40  40
JAX  74  87  75  89 /  20  60  50  50
SGJ  75  88  75  86 /  20  60  40  50
GNV  74  86  73  87 /  60  60  50  50
OCF  73  85  73  86 /  60  60  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ALACHUA-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/ENYEDI/WALKER





000
FXUS62 KJAX 020149
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
949 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 CORRIDOR UNTIL SUN MORNING...

.UPDATE...SFC DATA SHOWS BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
FROM PENSACOLA TO NEAR PERRY. THIS FEATURE HAS CHANGED OR DRIFTED
SLIGHTLY NNEWD TODAY. A SMALL TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION REMAINS...ONE
OF THEM W OF GAINESVILLE THROUGH GILCHRIST COUNTY AND THE OTHER
FROM NRN ATKINSON TO JEFF DAVIS AND APPLING COUNTIES. THE FORMER
HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE
IN THE NE GULF WHILE LATTER IS DEVELOPED FROM DIURNAL INSTABILITY
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND HAS NOW WEAKENED RAPIDLY. MOST OF THE
AREA HAS BEEN WORKED OVER FROM DIURNAL HEATING SO THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL HAS DROPPED TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OR LESS. DUE TO THE
LOW PRES FEATURE...ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETAINED FOR
AREAS W OF I-75 OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND IS SAME AREA WHERE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. THIS CHANCE
IS HIGHEST OVER GILCHRIST COUNTY AND PERHAPS SRN SUWANNEE AND WRN
MARION COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY FOR TAFS EXCEPT PROBABLY
FOR SSI. OCNL MVFR CIG CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A GOOD CHANCE
OF CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY FOR GNV AREA AND MENTIONED
TEMPO GROUP IN TSRA 14Z-18Z. ADDITIONAL TEMPO MAY BE NEEDED AT
REST OF TAFS AS OUR CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE S-SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE ROUGH SUNDAY WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT. SCEC IS CONTD FOR OFFSHORE
WATERS TONIGHT...WITH SCA POSSIBLE THERE ON SUNDAY. SEAS NEAR 3 FT
NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4-6 FT OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RIP CURRENT THREAT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  90  74  95 /  50  30  30  30
SSI  76  85  75  85 /  20  50  40  40
JAX  74  87  75  89 /  20  60  50  50
SGJ  75  88  75  86 /  20  60  40  50
GNV  74  86  73  87 /  60  60  50  50
OCF  73  85  73  86 /  60  60  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ALACHUA-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/ENYEDI/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 011854
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
254 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015


...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 CORRIDOR UNTIL SUN MORNING...

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM NEAR KSSI TO
NEAR KLCQ THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS
FAIRLY STATIONARY. AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUED FLOW FROM THE
GULF...A FLOODING CONCERN WILL REMAIN...MAINLY OVER COUNTIES ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. SO...WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN
PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH DIURNAL HEATING HELPING TO PROVIDE INSTABILITY.

WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HEAVY RAIN STILL POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY
NEAR THE GULF COAST OF N FL WITH A MODERATE SW FLOW JUST SOUTH OF
SURFACE TROUGH. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
MORE SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
AVERAGE OVER NE FL AND AT OR ABOVE OVER SE GA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT/TROUGH WILL STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH WITH A SW FLOW
INCREASING OVER NE FL/SE GA. AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL
BE SCATTERED WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO NUMEROUS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE AUGUST LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS 18Z TAF PERIOD.
AS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DURING THE DAY LIGHT HOURS.

&&


.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
MONDAY...WITH LESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  90  74  95 /  30  30  30  30
SSI  76  85  75  85 /  20  50  40  40
JAX  74  87  75  89 /  20  60  50  50
SGJ  75  88  75  86 /  20  60  40  50
GNV  74  86  73  87 /  60  60  50  50
OCF  73  86  73  86 /  60  60  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALACHUA-COLUMBIA-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/STRUBLE/COMBS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 011854
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
254 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015


...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 CORRIDOR UNTIL SUN MORNING...

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM NEAR KSSI TO
NEAR KLCQ THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS
FAIRLY STATIONARY. AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUED FLOW FROM THE
GULF...A FLOODING CONCERN WILL REMAIN...MAINLY OVER COUNTIES ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. SO...WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN
PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH DIURNAL HEATING HELPING TO PROVIDE INSTABILITY.

WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HEAVY RAIN STILL POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY
NEAR THE GULF COAST OF N FL WITH A MODERATE SW FLOW JUST SOUTH OF
SURFACE TROUGH. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
MORE SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
AVERAGE OVER NE FL AND AT OR ABOVE OVER SE GA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT/TROUGH WILL STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH WITH A SW FLOW
INCREASING OVER NE FL/SE GA. AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL
BE SCATTERED WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO NUMEROUS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE AUGUST LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS 18Z TAF PERIOD.
AS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DURING THE DAY LIGHT HOURS.

&&


.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
MONDAY...WITH LESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  90  74  95 /  30  30  30  30
SSI  76  85  75  85 /  20  50  40  40
JAX  74  87  75  89 /  20  60  50  50
SGJ  75  88  75  86 /  20  60  40  50
GNV  74  86  73  87 /  60  60  50  50
OCF  73  86  73  86 /  60  60  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALACHUA-COLUMBIA-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/STRUBLE/COMBS





000
FXUS62 KJAX 011854
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
254 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015


...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 CORRIDOR UNTIL SUN MORNING...

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM NEAR KSSI TO
NEAR KLCQ THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS
FAIRLY STATIONARY. AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUED FLOW FROM THE
GULF...A FLOODING CONCERN WILL REMAIN...MAINLY OVER COUNTIES ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. SO...WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN
PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH DIURNAL HEATING HELPING TO PROVIDE INSTABILITY.

WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HEAVY RAIN STILL POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY
NEAR THE GULF COAST OF N FL WITH A MODERATE SW FLOW JUST SOUTH OF
SURFACE TROUGH. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO
MORE SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
AVERAGE OVER NE FL AND AT OR ABOVE OVER SE GA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT/TROUGH WILL STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH WITH A SW FLOW
INCREASING OVER NE FL/SE GA. AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL
BE SCATTERED WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO NUMEROUS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE AUGUST LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS 18Z TAF PERIOD.
AS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DURING THE DAY LIGHT HOURS.

&&


.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
MONDAY...WITH LESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  90  74  95 /  30  30  30  30
SSI  76  85  75  85 /  20  50  40  40
JAX  74  87  75  89 /  20  60  50  50
SGJ  75  88  75  86 /  20  60  40  50
GNV  74  86  73  87 /  60  60  50  50
OCF  73  86  73  86 /  60  60  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALACHUA-COLUMBIA-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/STRUBLE/COMBS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 011300
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
900 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...

NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRENGTHENING WAVE DEVELOPING
JUST WEST OF REGION TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED STREAM
OF MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR INTERIOR FLORIDA
COUNTIES.

THE QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HOW FAR EAST
THIS MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MUCH OF
THIS MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO INTERIOR SECTIONS...WITH AREAS
FURTHER EAST AND NORTH EXPERIENCING MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION...WHERE THE SUN BREAKS THROUGH CLOUD COVER. SO...HAVE
TRIMMED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK OVER COASTAL FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...DUE
TO EXPECTED CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF TODAY...WITH DIURNAL
CONTRIBUTIONS LEADING TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  74  93  73 /  50  30  40  30
SSI  86  77  88  77 /  60  50  60  40
JAX  87  75  89  74 /  60  50  60  50
SGJ  87  75  87  76 /  60  50  60  40
GNV  86  74  87  74 /  80  60  60  50
OCF  85  74  87  74 /  90  60  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALACHUA-COLUMBIA-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE




000
FXUS62 KJAX 011300
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
900 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...

NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRENGTHENING WAVE DEVELOPING
JUST WEST OF REGION TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED STREAM
OF MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR INTERIOR FLORIDA
COUNTIES.

THE QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HOW FAR EAST
THIS MOISTURE WILL EXTEND. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MUCH OF
THIS MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO INTERIOR SECTIONS...WITH AREAS
FURTHER EAST AND NORTH EXPERIENCING MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION...WHERE THE SUN BREAKS THROUGH CLOUD COVER. SO...HAVE
TRIMMED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK OVER COASTAL FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...DUE
TO EXPECTED CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF TODAY...WITH DIURNAL
CONTRIBUTIONS LEADING TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  74  93  73 /  50  30  40  30
SSI  86  77  88  77 /  60  50  60  40
JAX  87  75  89  74 /  60  50  60  50
SGJ  87  75  87  76 /  60  50  60  40
GNV  86  74  87  74 /  80  60  60  50
OCF  85  74  87  74 /  90  60  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALACHUA-COLUMBIA-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE





000
FXUS62 KJAX 010844
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
444 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL SUN MORNING...

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH SUN MORNING)...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STALLED
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE FL
BIG BEND AND UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY MORNING
STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE BIG BEND COAST AND PROPAGATE
VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES WILL MEAN FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR INLAND FL COUNTIES EXTENDING FROM THE FL/GA BORDER DOWN
THROUGH MARION COUNTY. HI-RES MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HIGHER AMOUNTS. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER OVER FL WITH SOME AREAS
ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. RAIN SHOULD DIE OFF FOR MOST OF
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

BY SUNDAY MORNING... FRONTAL POSITION IS LARGELY UNCHANGED AND SW
FLOW BRINGS RAIN CHANCES TO THE FAR SW OF OUR CWA.

.SHORT TERM (SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT)...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE
FAR NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE BY MONDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL HELP
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVE WITH HEAVIEST
RAIN TOWARDS THE GULF COAST REGION. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND HOTTER AFTERNOON TEMPS
ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND WILL HAVE A
RETURN TO MORE SCATTERED DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION EACH DAY. POPS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN NE FL AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE FL TERMINALS
THROUGH 16Z. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN IN GNV BY
10Z AND MOVE INTO THE NE FL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE OFFSHORE LEGS.

RIP CURRENTS:LOW RISK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  74  93  73 /  60  30  40  30
SSI  84  77  88  77 /  60  50  60  40
JAX  87  75  89  74 /  80  50  60  50
SGJ  85  75  87  76 /  70  50  60  40
GNV  84  74  87  74 /  80  60  60  50
OCF  84  74  87  74 /  80  60  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR ALACHUA-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WALSH/PETERSON





000
FXUS62 KJAX 010844
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
444 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL SUN MORNING...

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH SUN MORNING)...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STALLED
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE FL
BIG BEND AND UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY MORNING
STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE BIG BEND COAST AND PROPAGATE
VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES WILL MEAN FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR INLAND FL COUNTIES EXTENDING FROM THE FL/GA BORDER DOWN
THROUGH MARION COUNTY. HI-RES MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HIGHER AMOUNTS. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER OVER FL WITH SOME AREAS
ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. RAIN SHOULD DIE OFF FOR MOST OF
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

BY SUNDAY MORNING... FRONTAL POSITION IS LARGELY UNCHANGED AND SW
FLOW BRINGS RAIN CHANCES TO THE FAR SW OF OUR CWA.

.SHORT TERM (SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT)...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE
FAR NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE BY MONDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL HELP
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVE WITH HEAVIEST
RAIN TOWARDS THE GULF COAST REGION. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND HOTTER AFTERNOON TEMPS
ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND WILL HAVE A
RETURN TO MORE SCATTERED DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION EACH DAY. POPS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN NE FL AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE FL TERMINALS
THROUGH 16Z. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN IN GNV BY
10Z AND MOVE INTO THE NE FL TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE OFFSHORE LEGS.

RIP CURRENTS:LOW RISK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  74  93  73 /  60  30  40  30
SSI  84  77  88  77 /  60  50  60  40
JAX  87  75  89  74 /  80  50  60  50
SGJ  85  75  87  76 /  70  50  60  40
GNV  84  74  87  74 /  80  60  60  50
OCF  84  74  87  74 /  80  60  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR ALACHUA-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WALSH/PETERSON




000
FXUS62 KJAX 010142
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
942 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...

.UPDATE...
INCREASING MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONE BATCH OF CONVECTION OVER SE GA IS SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE STORM
STALLED OVER ST SIMONS ISLAND EARLIER THIS EVENING AND DUMPED 4
INCHES OF RAIN IN ONLY AN HOUR AND A HALF. THIS GIVES US A GOOD
INDICATION OF HOW THE TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT IS IN PLACE SETS THE
STAGE FOR A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...EVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF COAST AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INLAND AND AFFECT AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
SPREAD FARTHER EAST TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST BUT CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH LOWER IN THIS OCCURRING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY
AS ACTIVITY BUILDS TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD DEBRIS FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. NOCTURNAL WINDS SURGES ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS TONIGHT
AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  92  73  91 /  70  70  50  40
SSI  76  86  76  89 /  70  60  50  50
JAX  74  88  74  88 /  30  60  50  60
SGJ  75  86  74  86 /  20  60  50  60
GNV  74  87  73  86 /  60  60  50  60
OCF  74  87  73  87 /  60  60  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/ENYEDI/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 010142
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
942 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND...

.UPDATE...
INCREASING MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONE BATCH OF CONVECTION OVER SE GA IS SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONE STORM
STALLED OVER ST SIMONS ISLAND EARLIER THIS EVENING AND DUMPED 4
INCHES OF RAIN IN ONLY AN HOUR AND A HALF. THIS GIVES US A GOOD
INDICATION OF HOW THE TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT IS IN PLACE SETS THE
STAGE FOR A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...EVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF COAST AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INLAND AND AFFECT AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
SPREAD FARTHER EAST TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST BUT CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH LOWER IN THIS OCCURRING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY
AS ACTIVITY BUILDS TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD DEBRIS FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. NOCTURNAL WINDS SURGES ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS TONIGHT
AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  92  73  91 /  70  70  50  40
SSI  76  86  76  89 /  70  60  50  50
JAX  74  88  74  88 /  30  60  50  60
SGJ  75  86  74  86 /  20  60  50  60
GNV  74  87  73  86 /  60  60  50  60
OCF  74  87  73  87 /  60  60  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/ENYEDI/WALKER





000
FXUS62 KJAX 311827
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
227 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL GA HAS SE GA/NE FL IN A MOIST
LOW-MID LEVEL SW FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER NE FL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER SE GA
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS HRRR MODEL INDICATES. SW WINDS
WILL KEEP EAST COAST SEABREEZE NEAR THE COAST TODAY WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN UPON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. EXPECT A SIMILAR
SCENARIO ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMING NUMEROUS
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...PROVIDING
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE INITIATED BY THE
COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD AND RAIN COVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

THE TROUGH WEAKENS...WITH SLIGHT RIDGING FOR TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE A LITTLE LESS AS A RESULT...WITH MAIN INITIATION
SOURCES FOR CONVECTION BEING DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEAK RIDGING WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL SETTLE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING TOWARD WEEKS END.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA UNTIL AROUND 00Z. IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS
FORM MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z-13Z.

&&

.MARINE...

SW WINDS WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD
FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZES NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY. NOCTURAL WINDS SURGES WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE SCEC CONDITIONS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  92  73  91 /  40  70  50  40
SSI  75  86  76  89 /  30  60  50  50
JAX  74  88  74  88 /  30  60  50  60
SGJ  73  86  74  86 /  40  60  50  60
GNV  72  87  73  86 /  40  50  50  60
OCF  72  87  73  87 /  40  50  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/ZIBURA





000
FXUS62 KJAX 311827
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
227 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL GA HAS SE GA/NE FL IN A MOIST
LOW-MID LEVEL SW FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER NE FL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER SE GA
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS HRRR MODEL INDICATES. SW WINDS
WILL KEEP EAST COAST SEABREEZE NEAR THE COAST TODAY WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN UPON BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. EXPECT A SIMILAR
SCENARIO ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMING NUMEROUS
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...PROVIDING
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE INITIATED BY THE
COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD AND RAIN COVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.

THE TROUGH WEAKENS...WITH SLIGHT RIDGING FOR TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE A LITTLE LESS AS A RESULT...WITH MAIN INITIATION
SOURCES FOR CONVECTION BEING DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WEAK RIDGING WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL SETTLE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING TOWARD WEEKS END.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA UNTIL AROUND 00Z. IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS
FORM MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z-13Z.

&&

.MARINE...

SW WINDS WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD
FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZES NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY. NOCTURAL WINDS SURGES WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE SCEC CONDITIONS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  92  73  91 /  40  70  50  40
SSI  75  86  76  89 /  30  60  50  50
JAX  74  88  74  88 /  30  60  50  60
SGJ  73  86  74  86 /  40  60  50  60
GNV  72  87  73  86 /  40  50  50  60
OCF  72  87  73  87 /  40  50  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/ZIBURA




000
FXUS62 KJAX 311244
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
844 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015


.UPDATE...A DEEPENING MOIST LOW LEVEL SW FLOW WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE FL TODAY WITH ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG
THE FL W COAST. MODELS SHOW ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL GA INCREASING
THIS AFTERNOON AND ADVECTING SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY MID
AFTERNOON. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFFECTING SSI WITH IFR CIGS
TIL AROUND 13Z. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY
WITH TEMPO TSRA AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...SW WINDS WILL BECOME SE NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SEABREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FEET
OFFSHORE. NOCTURNAL SW WIND SURGE MAY PRODUCE SCEC CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  74  92  74 /  50  60  50  30
SSI  86  76  86  75 /  50  50  50  50
JAX  90  74  87  75 /  50  50  50  50
SGJ  87  75  86  74 /  50  50  50  50
GNV  90  73  90  72 /  60  60  60  50
OCF  90  73  90  72 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/ALLEN/COMBS





000
FXUS62 KJAX 311244
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
844 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015


.UPDATE...A DEEPENING MOIST LOW LEVEL SW FLOW WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE FL TODAY WITH ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG
THE FL W COAST. MODELS SHOW ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL GA INCREASING
THIS AFTERNOON AND ADVECTING SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY MID
AFTERNOON. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFFECTING SSI WITH IFR CIGS
TIL AROUND 13Z. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY
WITH TEMPO TSRA AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...SW WINDS WILL BECOME SE NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SEABREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FEET
OFFSHORE. NOCTURNAL SW WIND SURGE MAY PRODUCE SCEC CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  74  92  74 /  50  60  50  30
SSI  86  76  86  75 /  50  50  50  50
JAX  90  74  87  75 /  50  50  50  50
SGJ  87  75  86  74 /  50  50  50  50
GNV  90  73  90  72 /  60  60  60  50
OCF  90  73  90  72 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/ALLEN/COMBS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 311244
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
844 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015


.UPDATE...A DEEPENING MOIST LOW LEVEL SW FLOW WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE FL TODAY WITH ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG
THE FL W COAST. MODELS SHOW ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL GA INCREASING
THIS AFTERNOON AND ADVECTING SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY MID
AFTERNOON. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFFECTING SSI WITH IFR CIGS
TIL AROUND 13Z. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY
WITH TEMPO TSRA AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...SW WINDS WILL BECOME SE NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SEABREEZE. SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FEET
OFFSHORE. NOCTURNAL SW WIND SURGE MAY PRODUCE SCEC CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  74  92  74 /  50  60  50  30
SSI  86  76  86  75 /  50  50  50  50
JAX  90  74  87  75 /  50  50  50  50
SGJ  87  75  86  74 /  50  50  50  50
GNV  90  73  90  72 /  60  60  60  50
OCF  90  73  90  72 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/ALLEN/COMBS





000
FXUS62 KJAX 310650
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SEMI-PERMANENT...AT
LEAST THIS SUMMER...EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH AND QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM. A SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVES WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
LAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUING OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. THE SYNOPTIC
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL PIN THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT
CLOSE TO THE COAST WITH THE CONVECTION INTERACTING WITH IT BETWEEN
18-22 LOCAL OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL AS CLAY AND PUTNAM.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 90S OVER GEORGIA WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER
FLORIDA WILL BE IN UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS IN MOST AREAS
ON BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THROUGH THUR) TROUGH IS THE WORD OF THE WEEK
LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
STALLED TROUGH WE HAVE HAD IMPACTING OUR WEATHER OVER THE LAST WEEK
APPEARS TO BE GOING NOWHERE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A BIG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE DESERT SW WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
US. A SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NE US WITH
AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING DOWN THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO KEEP A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WEST TO
EAST OVER THE STATE SPLITTING THE GAP BETWEEN THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND THE BERMUDA RIDGE. ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES EVERY FEW DAYS
WILL RIDE OVER THE NORTHERN US...JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP THE STATIONARY FRONT ALIVE WITHOUT
CAUSING ENOUGH CYCLOGENESIS TO SPIN UP A CONSOLIDATED CUT OFF LOW.

AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE LAST WEEK....GLOBAL MODELS HAVING A TOUGH
TIME HANDLING WHERE THE BEST LOCATION FOR ANY CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE
ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND HOW MUCH MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
ENERGY IS CARRIED NE BY EACH PASSING SHORTWAVE.

UNTIL THIS AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE CAN BE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA WE
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE DAY
OVER THE LAND AREAS... WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER
THE WATERS. WITH CLOUDS..RAIN..AND A TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINING IN
PLACE... EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMO WITH LOW 90S FOR
HIGHS AND MID 70S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOIST AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG NEAR
DAYBREAK AT MOST FIELDS IN THE JACKSONVILLE AREA AND GAINESVILLE.
EXPECT WE WILL BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 1 MILE AT JAX INTL...CECIL
FIELD AND GAINESVILLE AROUND 12 UTC. SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF SAINT
SIMONS ISLAND MAY BRIEFLY MOVE OVER THE FIELD THROUGH 08 UTC.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GAINESVILLE AREA AROUND
15 UTC AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST WERE IT WILL INTERACT
WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FRONT BETWEEN 20-24 UTC. LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY KEEP SOME LIGHT RAIN GOING OVER THE FLORIDA
FIELDS THROUGH 03-04 UTC. CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE SAVANNAH
RIVER AREA MAY SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DOWN TOWARD SAINT SIMONS
THIS AFTERNOON KICKING OFF CONVECTION THERE. IN GENERAL CEILINGS
AT ALL OF THE FIELDS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 2-5 KFT IN STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...WITH A SYNOPTIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THE SEAS WILL
BE KEPT DOWN CLOSE TO THE COAST. NOCTURNAL WIND SURGES ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY WARRANT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE AREAS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  74  92  74 /  50  60  50  30
SSI  86  76  86  75 /  50  50  50  50
JAX  90  74  87  75 /  50  50  50  50
SGJ  87  75  86  74 /  50  50  50  50
GNV  90  73  90  72 /  60  60  60  50
OCF  90  73  90  72 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 310650
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SEMI-PERMANENT...AT
LEAST THIS SUMMER...EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH AND QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM. A SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVES WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
LAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUING OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. THE SYNOPTIC
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL PIN THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT
CLOSE TO THE COAST WITH THE CONVECTION INTERACTING WITH IT BETWEEN
18-22 LOCAL OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL AS CLAY AND PUTNAM.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 90S OVER GEORGIA WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER
FLORIDA WILL BE IN UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS IN MOST AREAS
ON BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THROUGH THUR) TROUGH IS THE WORD OF THE WEEK
LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
STALLED TROUGH WE HAVE HAD IMPACTING OUR WEATHER OVER THE LAST WEEK
APPEARS TO BE GOING NOWHERE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A BIG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE DESERT SW WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
US. A SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NE US WITH
AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING DOWN THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO KEEP A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WEST TO
EAST OVER THE STATE SPLITTING THE GAP BETWEEN THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND THE BERMUDA RIDGE. ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES EVERY FEW DAYS
WILL RIDE OVER THE NORTHERN US...JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP THE STATIONARY FRONT ALIVE WITHOUT
CAUSING ENOUGH CYCLOGENESIS TO SPIN UP A CONSOLIDATED CUT OFF LOW.

AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE LAST WEEK....GLOBAL MODELS HAVING A TOUGH
TIME HANDLING WHERE THE BEST LOCATION FOR ANY CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE
ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND HOW MUCH MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
ENERGY IS CARRIED NE BY EACH PASSING SHORTWAVE.

UNTIL THIS AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE CAN BE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA WE
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE DAY
OVER THE LAND AREAS... WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER
THE WATERS. WITH CLOUDS..RAIN..AND A TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINING IN
PLACE... EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMO WITH LOW 90S FOR
HIGHS AND MID 70S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOIST AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG NEAR
DAYBREAK AT MOST FIELDS IN THE JACKSONVILLE AREA AND GAINESVILLE.
EXPECT WE WILL BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 1 MILE AT JAX INTL...CECIL
FIELD AND GAINESVILLE AROUND 12 UTC. SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF SAINT
SIMONS ISLAND MAY BRIEFLY MOVE OVER THE FIELD THROUGH 08 UTC.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GAINESVILLE AREA AROUND
15 UTC AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST WERE IT WILL INTERACT
WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FRONT BETWEEN 20-24 UTC. LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY KEEP SOME LIGHT RAIN GOING OVER THE FLORIDA
FIELDS THROUGH 03-04 UTC. CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE SAVANNAH
RIVER AREA MAY SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DOWN TOWARD SAINT SIMONS
THIS AFTERNOON KICKING OFF CONVECTION THERE. IN GENERAL CEILINGS
AT ALL OF THE FIELDS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 2-5 KFT IN STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...WITH A SYNOPTIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THE SEAS WILL
BE KEPT DOWN CLOSE TO THE COAST. NOCTURNAL WIND SURGES ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY WARRANT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE AREAS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  74  92  74 /  50  60  50  30
SSI  86  76  86  75 /  50  50  50  50
JAX  90  74  87  75 /  50  50  50  50
SGJ  87  75  86  74 /  50  50  50  50
GNV  90  73  90  72 /  60  60  60  50
OCF  90  73  90  72 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 310650
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SEMI-PERMANENT...AT
LEAST THIS SUMMER...EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH AND QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM. A SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVES WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
LAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUING OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. THE SYNOPTIC
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL PIN THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT
CLOSE TO THE COAST WITH THE CONVECTION INTERACTING WITH IT BETWEEN
18-22 LOCAL OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL AS CLAY AND PUTNAM.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 90S OVER GEORGIA WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER
FLORIDA WILL BE IN UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS IN MOST AREAS
ON BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THROUGH THUR) TROUGH IS THE WORD OF THE WEEK
LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
STALLED TROUGH WE HAVE HAD IMPACTING OUR WEATHER OVER THE LAST WEEK
APPEARS TO BE GOING NOWHERE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A BIG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE DESERT SW WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
US. A SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NE US WITH
AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING DOWN THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO KEEP A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WEST TO
EAST OVER THE STATE SPLITTING THE GAP BETWEEN THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND THE BERMUDA RIDGE. ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES EVERY FEW DAYS
WILL RIDE OVER THE NORTHERN US...JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP THE STATIONARY FRONT ALIVE WITHOUT
CAUSING ENOUGH CYCLOGENESIS TO SPIN UP A CONSOLIDATED CUT OFF LOW.

AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE LAST WEEK....GLOBAL MODELS HAVING A TOUGH
TIME HANDLING WHERE THE BEST LOCATION FOR ANY CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE
ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND HOW MUCH MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
ENERGY IS CARRIED NE BY EACH PASSING SHORTWAVE.

UNTIL THIS AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE CAN BE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA WE
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE DAY
OVER THE LAND AREAS... WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER
THE WATERS. WITH CLOUDS..RAIN..AND A TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINING IN
PLACE... EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMO WITH LOW 90S FOR
HIGHS AND MID 70S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOIST AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG NEAR
DAYBREAK AT MOST FIELDS IN THE JACKSONVILLE AREA AND GAINESVILLE.
EXPECT WE WILL BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 1 MILE AT JAX INTL...CECIL
FIELD AND GAINESVILLE AROUND 12 UTC. SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF SAINT
SIMONS ISLAND MAY BRIEFLY MOVE OVER THE FIELD THROUGH 08 UTC.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GAINESVILLE AREA AROUND
15 UTC AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST WERE IT WILL INTERACT
WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FRONT BETWEEN 20-24 UTC. LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY KEEP SOME LIGHT RAIN GOING OVER THE FLORIDA
FIELDS THROUGH 03-04 UTC. CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE SAVANNAH
RIVER AREA MAY SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DOWN TOWARD SAINT SIMONS
THIS AFTERNOON KICKING OFF CONVECTION THERE. IN GENERAL CEILINGS
AT ALL OF THE FIELDS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 2-5 KFT IN STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...WITH A SYNOPTIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THE SEAS WILL
BE KEPT DOWN CLOSE TO THE COAST. NOCTURNAL WIND SURGES ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY WARRANT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE AREAS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  74  92  74 /  50  60  50  30
SSI  86  76  86  75 /  50  50  50  50
JAX  90  74  87  75 /  50  50  50  50
SGJ  87  75  86  74 /  50  50  50  50
GNV  90  73  90  72 /  60  60  60  50
OCF  90  73  90  72 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 310650
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SEMI-PERMANENT...AT
LEAST THIS SUMMER...EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH AND QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM. A SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVES WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
LAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUING OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. THE SYNOPTIC
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL PIN THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT
CLOSE TO THE COAST WITH THE CONVECTION INTERACTING WITH IT BETWEEN
18-22 LOCAL OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL AS CLAY AND PUTNAM.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 90S OVER GEORGIA WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER
FLORIDA WILL BE IN UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS IN MOST AREAS
ON BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THROUGH THUR) TROUGH IS THE WORD OF THE WEEK
LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
STALLED TROUGH WE HAVE HAD IMPACTING OUR WEATHER OVER THE LAST WEEK
APPEARS TO BE GOING NOWHERE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A BIG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE DESERT SW WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
US. A SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NE US WITH
AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING DOWN THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO KEEP A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WEST TO
EAST OVER THE STATE SPLITTING THE GAP BETWEEN THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND THE BERMUDA RIDGE. ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES EVERY FEW DAYS
WILL RIDE OVER THE NORTHERN US...JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP THE STATIONARY FRONT ALIVE WITHOUT
CAUSING ENOUGH CYCLOGENESIS TO SPIN UP A CONSOLIDATED CUT OFF LOW.

AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE LAST WEEK....GLOBAL MODELS HAVING A TOUGH
TIME HANDLING WHERE THE BEST LOCATION FOR ANY CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE
ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND HOW MUCH MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
ENERGY IS CARRIED NE BY EACH PASSING SHORTWAVE.

UNTIL THIS AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE CAN BE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA WE
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE DAY
OVER THE LAND AREAS... WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER
THE WATERS. WITH CLOUDS..RAIN..AND A TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINING IN
PLACE... EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMO WITH LOW 90S FOR
HIGHS AND MID 70S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOIST AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG NEAR
DAYBREAK AT MOST FIELDS IN THE JACKSONVILLE AREA AND GAINESVILLE.
EXPECT WE WILL BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 1 MILE AT JAX INTL...CECIL
FIELD AND GAINESVILLE AROUND 12 UTC. SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF SAINT
SIMONS ISLAND MAY BRIEFLY MOVE OVER THE FIELD THROUGH 08 UTC.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GAINESVILLE AREA AROUND
15 UTC AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST WERE IT WILL INTERACT
WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FRONT BETWEEN 20-24 UTC. LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY KEEP SOME LIGHT RAIN GOING OVER THE FLORIDA
FIELDS THROUGH 03-04 UTC. CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE SAVANNAH
RIVER AREA MAY SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DOWN TOWARD SAINT SIMONS
THIS AFTERNOON KICKING OFF CONVECTION THERE. IN GENERAL CEILINGS
AT ALL OF THE FIELDS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 2-5 KFT IN STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...WITH A SYNOPTIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THE SEAS WILL
BE KEPT DOWN CLOSE TO THE COAST. NOCTURNAL WIND SURGES ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY WARRANT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE AREAS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  74  92  74 /  50  60  50  30
SSI  86  76  86  75 /  50  50  50  50
JAX  90  74  87  75 /  50  50  50  50
SGJ  87  75  86  74 /  50  50  50  50
GNV  90  73  90  72 /  60  60  60  50
OCF  90  73  90  72 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 310154
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
954 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...CONVECTION WAS RELATIVELY TAME THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR
ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDED AND
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...SPECIFICALLY WITH ONE CLUSTER
THAT IMPACTED NAS JACKSONVILLE AND THE MANDARIN AREA. NAS JAX
MEASURED 2-2.5 INCHES WITHIN 30 MINUTES. FLOOD ADVISORIES AND AN
AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINED IN EFFECT THIS HOUR WITH EXPIRATION
WITH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT A
MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS GA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
WITH A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN...OTHERWISE ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL FADE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND...UPPER 70S RIVER BASIN/COAST.

&&

.AVIATION... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH SOME LOCALIZED VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AROUND SUNRISE. STORMS WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST ON FRIDAY AND WE WILL COVER THIS WITH VCTS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...SSW WINDS WILL NEAR 15 KTS OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS
TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. NO HEADLINES.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  93  74  93 /  50  50  40  50
SSI  76  90  76  87 /  30  50  40  50
JAX  75  91  75  90 /  40  60  30  50
SGJ  75  90  74  87 /  30  60  40  50
GNV  73  90  73  88 /  30  60  40  60
OCF  73  90  73  87 /  20  60  50  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 310154
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
954 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...CONVECTION WAS RELATIVELY TAME THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR
ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDED AND
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...SPECIFICALLY WITH ONE CLUSTER
THAT IMPACTED NAS JACKSONVILLE AND THE MANDARIN AREA. NAS JAX
MEASURED 2-2.5 INCHES WITHIN 30 MINUTES. FLOOD ADVISORIES AND AN
AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINED IN EFFECT THIS HOUR WITH EXPIRATION
WITH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT A
MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS GA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
WITH A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN...OTHERWISE ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL FADE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND...UPPER 70S RIVER BASIN/COAST.

&&

.AVIATION... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH SOME LOCALIZED VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AROUND SUNRISE. STORMS WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST ON FRIDAY AND WE WILL COVER THIS WITH VCTS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...SSW WINDS WILL NEAR 15 KTS OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS
TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. NO HEADLINES.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  93  74  93 /  50  50  40  50
SSI  76  90  76  87 /  30  50  40  50
JAX  75  91  75  90 /  40  60  30  50
SGJ  75  90  74  87 /  30  60  40  50
GNV  73  90  73  88 /  30  60  40  60
OCF  73  90  73  87 /  20  60  50  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KJAX 310154
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
954 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...CONVECTION WAS RELATIVELY TAME THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR
ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDED AND
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...SPECIFICALLY WITH ONE CLUSTER
THAT IMPACTED NAS JACKSONVILLE AND THE MANDARIN AREA. NAS JAX
MEASURED 2-2.5 INCHES WITHIN 30 MINUTES. FLOOD ADVISORIES AND AN
AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINED IN EFFECT THIS HOUR WITH EXPIRATION
WITH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT A
MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS GA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
WITH A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN...OTHERWISE ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL FADE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND...UPPER 70S RIVER BASIN/COAST.

&&

.AVIATION... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH SOME LOCALIZED VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AROUND SUNRISE. STORMS WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST ON FRIDAY AND WE WILL COVER THIS WITH VCTS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...SSW WINDS WILL NEAR 15 KTS OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS
TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. NO HEADLINES.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  93  74  93 /  50  50  40  50
SSI  76  90  76  87 /  30  50  40  50
JAX  75  91  75  90 /  40  60  30  50
SGJ  75  90  74  87 /  30  60  40  50
GNV  73  90  73  88 /  30  60  40  60
OCF  73  90  73  87 /  20  60  50  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KJAX 310154
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
954 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...CONVECTION WAS RELATIVELY TAME THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR
ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDED AND
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...SPECIFICALLY WITH ONE CLUSTER
THAT IMPACTED NAS JACKSONVILLE AND THE MANDARIN AREA. NAS JAX
MEASURED 2-2.5 INCHES WITHIN 30 MINUTES. FLOOD ADVISORIES AND AN
AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINED IN EFFECT THIS HOUR WITH EXPIRATION
WITH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT A
MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS GA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
WITH A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN...OTHERWISE ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL FADE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND...UPPER 70S RIVER BASIN/COAST.

&&

.AVIATION... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH SOME LOCALIZED VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AROUND SUNRISE. STORMS WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST ON FRIDAY AND WE WILL COVER THIS WITH VCTS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...SSW WINDS WILL NEAR 15 KTS OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS
TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. NO HEADLINES.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  93  74  93 /  50  50  40  50
SSI  76  90  76  87 /  30  50  40  50
JAX  75  91  75  90 /  40  60  30  50
SGJ  75  90  74  87 /  30  60  40  50
GNV  73  90  73  88 /  30  60  40  60
OCF  73  90  73  87 /  20  60  50  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 301923
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
323 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...
WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH SE GA FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. THE FLOW IS FAIRLY LIGHT... SO
EXPECTED SLOW MOVING CELLS. THEREFORE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN AS WAS IN PLACE LAST NIGHT THERE IS A
POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR FOG AND STRATUS FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THIS
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE GREATEST WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FALLS TODAY.

EXPECT HEAT INDICES TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER INLAND SE GA
ON FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE A MEAN LAYER (1000-
500 MB) GETS ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY IN THE EASTERN U.S. MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS SUGGESTS
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH PWATS AT OR ABOVE 2
INCHES ALONG WITH DEEPENING W TO SW FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY WITH ACTIVITY MOST
NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. A RANGE IN HIGH TEMPS FROM THE LOWER/MID 90S
ACROSS INLAND SE GA TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS NE FL DUE TO
MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POPS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. WHILE THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EAST. THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS THE AREA...THEN
SHIFTS WEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST BY MID WEEK AS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS CNTL AND S FL. AT THE LOW
LEVELS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL GET POOLED INTO THE AREA WITH A PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW EACH DAY. THIS RESULTS IN A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL POPS
WITH HIGHEST POPS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. TEMPS HELD IN CHECK
SOMEWHAT ACROSS NE FL DUE TO CLOUD COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS SE GA DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER/SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. WITH A LINGERING TROUGH OVER
THE REGION...AND THE ADDITION OF ANY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT FROM
TODAYS RAIN... COULD SEE PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...HAVE HINTED AT THIS POTENTIAL DURING
THE FRIDAY PRE DAWN HOURS IN THE 18Z TAF...AND THIS CAN BE ADJUSTED
WITH LATER FORECASTS BASED ON HOW BROAD THE RAINFALL COVERAGE IS
TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM NORTH OF
AREA WATERS TO OVER THE AREA WATERS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  93  74  93 /  50  50  40  50
SSI  78  90  76  87 /  40  50  40  50
JAX  75  91  75  90 /  50  60  30  50
SGJ  76  90  74  87 /  50  60  40  50
GNV  73  90  73  88 /  60  60  40  60
OCF  74  90  73  87 /  60  60  50  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

LS/PP





000
FXUS62 KJAX 301923
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
323 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...
WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH SE GA FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. THE FLOW IS FAIRLY LIGHT... SO
EXPECTED SLOW MOVING CELLS. THEREFORE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN AS WAS IN PLACE LAST NIGHT THERE IS A
POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR FOG AND STRATUS FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THIS
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE GREATEST WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FALLS TODAY.

EXPECT HEAT INDICES TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER INLAND SE GA
ON FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE A MEAN LAYER (1000-
500 MB) GETS ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY IN THE EASTERN U.S. MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS SUGGESTS
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH PWATS AT OR ABOVE 2
INCHES ALONG WITH DEEPENING W TO SW FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY WITH ACTIVITY MOST
NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. A RANGE IN HIGH TEMPS FROM THE LOWER/MID 90S
ACROSS INLAND SE GA TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS NE FL DUE TO
MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POPS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. WHILE THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EAST. THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS THE AREA...THEN
SHIFTS WEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST BY MID WEEK AS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS CNTL AND S FL. AT THE LOW
LEVELS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL GET POOLED INTO THE AREA WITH A PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW EACH DAY. THIS RESULTS IN A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL POPS
WITH HIGHEST POPS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. TEMPS HELD IN CHECK
SOMEWHAT ACROSS NE FL DUE TO CLOUD COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS SE GA DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER/SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. WITH A LINGERING TROUGH OVER
THE REGION...AND THE ADDITION OF ANY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT FROM
TODAYS RAIN... COULD SEE PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...HAVE HINTED AT THIS POTENTIAL DURING
THE FRIDAY PRE DAWN HOURS IN THE 18Z TAF...AND THIS CAN BE ADJUSTED
WITH LATER FORECASTS BASED ON HOW BROAD THE RAINFALL COVERAGE IS
TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM NORTH OF
AREA WATERS TO OVER THE AREA WATERS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  93  74  93 /  50  50  40  50
SSI  78  90  76  87 /  40  50  40  50
JAX  75  91  75  90 /  50  60  30  50
SGJ  76  90  74  87 /  50  60  40  50
GNV  73  90  73  88 /  60  60  40  60
OCF  74  90  73  87 /  60  60  50  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

LS/PP




000
FXUS62 KJAX 301329
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
929 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND
A LINGERING TROUGH. THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOWARD
THE I75 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GULF SEA BREEZE
MOVES INLAND.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS INLAND SE GA
COULD APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...

REMAINING STRATUS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE NEAR LINGERING TROUGH WILL
INITIATE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  76  94  74 /  40  50  50  40
SSI  88  76  88  76 /  30  40  50  40
JAX  89  75  91  75 /  40  50  50  30
SGJ  88  75  88  74 /  50  50  50  40
GNV  89  74  91  73 /  60  60  50  40
OCF  88  74  89  73 /  70  60  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE




000
FXUS62 KJAX 301329
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
929 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND
A LINGERING TROUGH. THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOWARD
THE I75 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GULF SEA BREEZE
MOVES INLAND.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS INLAND SE GA
COULD APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...

REMAINING STRATUS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE NEAR LINGERING TROUGH WILL
INITIATE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  76  94  74 /  40  50  50  40
SSI  88  76  88  76 /  30  40  50  40
JAX  89  75  91  75 /  40  50  50  30
SGJ  88  75  88  74 /  50  50  50  40
GNV  89  74  91  73 /  60  60  50  40
OCF  88  74  89  73 /  70  60  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE





000
FXUS62 KJAX 301329
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
929 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND
A LINGERING TROUGH. THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOWARD
THE I75 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GULF SEA BREEZE
MOVES INLAND.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS INLAND SE GA
COULD APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...

REMAINING STRATUS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE NEAR LINGERING TROUGH WILL
INITIATE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  76  94  74 /  40  50  50  40
SSI  88  76  88  76 /  30  40  50  40
JAX  89  75  91  75 /  40  50  50  30
SGJ  88  75  88  74 /  50  50  50  40
GNV  89  74  91  73 /  60  60  50  40
OCF  88  74  89  73 /  70  60  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE





000
FXUS62 KJAX 301329
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
929 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND
A LINGERING TROUGH. THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOWARD
THE I75 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GULF SEA BREEZE
MOVES INLAND.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS INLAND SE GA
COULD APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...

REMAINING STRATUS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE NEAR LINGERING TROUGH WILL
INITIATE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  76  94  74 /  40  50  50  40
SSI  88  76  88  76 /  30  40  50  40
JAX  89  75  91  75 /  40  50  50  30
SGJ  88  75  88  74 /  50  50  50  40
GNV  89  74  91  73 /  60  60  50  40
OCF  88  74  89  73 /  70  60  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE




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