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000
FXUS62 KJAX 060817
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
315 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...

COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST WITH MUCH COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ON NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THIS FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLOUD
COVER...AND A FEW MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD EVEN
FALL A FEW DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE
AROUND SUNRISE...WITH CLIMATE DAY HIGHS HAVING ALREADY OCCURRED.
WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE COAST...GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORE.

AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THE
COASTAL TROUGHINESS WILL DIMINISH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 30S...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10. LOWS IN THE COUNTIES NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER COULD
APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK BY SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAST THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR...AND WHETHER THE WINDS WILL STAY MIXED. SO HAVE HELD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY FREEZE/FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM....SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER SRN FL. MEAN SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY EWD TO THE SE U.S. COAST. MODELS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS
TRANSLATING TO CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE NE. THE AFFECTS OF THE COOL AIRMASS
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS AND LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. A
FEW LOCATIONS WITH FROST POSSIBLE INLAND SE GA SUN MORNING.

SUNDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE AWAY FROM
THE REGION AS THE FRONT WELL TO OUR S BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM
FRONT. SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MAINLY
SRN AREAS AS A FEW MORE CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED AND MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE STREAMING IN FROM THE W. SUN NIGHT...WARM FRONT LIFTS
UP TO CENTRAL FL WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM WELL BELOW 1 INCH ON
SUNDAY TO ABOUT 1.3 INCHES LATE SUN NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
MORE MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND WARM FRONT LIFTING
NWD...WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...MON THROUGH THU.
WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS A STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE WRN GULF SLOWLY PUSHES EWD. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GOOD WITH MID RANGE SCT POPS BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS
TOO WEAK FOR ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AT THIS TIME. BULK OF THE HIGH
LEVELS OF MOISTURE MOVE NW AND W OF THE AREA THOUGH WARM FRONT
GENERALLY STALLS OVER EXTREME SRN GA WHERE WE PLACE CHANCE POPS
AGAIN WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES IN NE FL. TUE AND WED...THE FRONT
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER SRN GA AND THE N CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO OR SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK TO THE SE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW BEST
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE OVER SRN GA TUE BUT UNCERTAIN GROWS WED-
THU WITH MODELS HANDLING OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO OUR N.
ECMWF ARGUES FOR DRIER PATTERN AS PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NEWD
OUT OF THE GULF FROM LA INTO THE LOWER TN VALLEY WHILE GFS BEGINS TO
FOCUS MOISTURE FIELD OVER ERN TX TO SRN GA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW
POPS FCST OF 20-30 PERCENT FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER CONSENSUS DEVELOPS.
AT THIS POINT...TSTMS REMAIN LOW TUE AND WED AND THUS WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE FCST. COOLER AIR REMAINS N OF THE AREA SO A MILD AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN TRENDING TO VFR TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. AS THIS HIGH TRACKS
FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION...WINDS WILL TREND TOWARD ONSHORE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
AREA WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  51  32  65  37 /  20   0   0   0
SSI  48  37  59  43 /  20   0   0   0
JAX  53  37  63  41 /  20   0   0   0
SGJ  56  44  62  50 /  20  20  10   0
GNV  57  39  68  43 /  10  10   0   0
OCF  60  44  70  48 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHASHY




000
FXUS62 KJAX 060817
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
315 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...

COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST WITH MUCH COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ON NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THIS FLOW...WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLOUD
COVER...AND A FEW MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY FROM SUNRISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD EVEN
FALL A FEW DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE
AROUND SUNRISE...WITH CLIMATE DAY HIGHS HAVING ALREADY OCCURRED.
WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE COAST...GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORE.

AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THE
COASTAL TROUGHINESS WILL DIMINISH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 30S...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10. LOWS IN THE COUNTIES NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER COULD
APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK BY SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAST THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR...AND WHETHER THE WINDS WILL STAY MIXED. SO HAVE HELD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY FREEZE/FROST HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM....SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER SRN FL. MEAN SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY EWD TO THE SE U.S. COAST. MODELS SHOW A DRY AIRMASS
TRANSLATING TO CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE NE. THE AFFECTS OF THE COOL AIRMASS
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS AND LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. A
FEW LOCATIONS WITH FROST POSSIBLE INLAND SE GA SUN MORNING.

SUNDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE AWAY FROM
THE REGION AS THE FRONT WELL TO OUR S BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM
FRONT. SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MAINLY
SRN AREAS AS A FEW MORE CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED AND MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE STREAMING IN FROM THE W. SUN NIGHT...WARM FRONT LIFTS
UP TO CENTRAL FL WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM WELL BELOW 1 INCH ON
SUNDAY TO ABOUT 1.3 INCHES LATE SUN NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
MORE MILD DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND WARM FRONT LIFTING
NWD...WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...MON THROUGH THU.
WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS A STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE WRN GULF SLOWLY PUSHES EWD. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GOOD WITH MID RANGE SCT POPS BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS
TOO WEAK FOR ANY MENTION OF TSTMS AT THIS TIME. BULK OF THE HIGH
LEVELS OF MOISTURE MOVE NW AND W OF THE AREA THOUGH WARM FRONT
GENERALLY STALLS OVER EXTREME SRN GA WHERE WE PLACE CHANCE POPS
AGAIN WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES IN NE FL. TUE AND WED...THE FRONT
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER SRN GA AND THE N CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO OR SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK TO THE SE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW BEST
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE OVER SRN GA TUE BUT UNCERTAIN GROWS WED-
THU WITH MODELS HANDLING OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO OUR N.
ECMWF ARGUES FOR DRIER PATTERN AS PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NEWD
OUT OF THE GULF FROM LA INTO THE LOWER TN VALLEY WHILE GFS BEGINS TO
FOCUS MOISTURE FIELD OVER ERN TX TO SRN GA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW
POPS FCST OF 20-30 PERCENT FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER CONSENSUS DEVELOPS.
AT THIS POINT...TSTMS REMAIN LOW TUE AND WED AND THUS WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE FCST. COOLER AIR REMAINS N OF THE AREA SO A MILD AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN TRENDING TO VFR TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. AS THIS HIGH TRACKS
FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION...WINDS WILL TREND TOWARD ONSHORE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
AREA WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  51  32  65  37 /  20   0   0   0
SSI  48  37  59  43 /  20   0   0   0
JAX  53  37  63  41 /  20   0   0   0
SGJ  56  44  62  50 /  20  20  10   0
GNV  57  39  68  43 /  10  10   0   0
OCF  60  44  70  48 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHASHY





000
FXUS62 KJAX 060158
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
858 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...TURNING SHARPLY COLDER LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT AND LEADING LINE OF SHOWERS STEADILY PUSHING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS WERE GENERALLY IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE MAX GUST OF 39 MPH
REPORTED AT THE JAX INTL AIRPORT AT 744 PM EST. THE LINE OF
SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND WILL WASH OUT BY LATE THIS EVENING
WITH A LULL IN PCPN CHANCES UNTIL MORNING AS COLD/MOIST N/NE FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS NE FL/SE GA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO THE 40S ACROSS SE GA AND INTO THE 50S ACROSS NE FL. A
WEAK OVERRUNNING W/SW FLOW OVERTOP OF COLD/MOIST N/NE FLOW ON
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO LOW END RAIN CHANCES OF 30-50% WITH ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN STORY WILL BE CLOUDY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS STEADY IN THE 40S ACRS SE GA AND 50S ACRS NE
FL. N/NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCLUDING THE ST JOHNS
RIVER BASIN AND WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...N/NE
WINDS WILL BE 10-15G20-25 MPH FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AROUND 3000 FT ARE EXPECTED AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS
THROUGH AROUND 04Z...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR THEREAFTER. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED TO
IMPACT SSI TOWARDS 12Z...AND THEN THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA TERMINALS
AFTER 15Z. CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AT SSI TOWARDS 12Z...WITH CIGS
AT THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS LOWERING TO IFR TOWARDS 15Z. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS...WITH SURFACE SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS. WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 25 KTS BELOW 2000 FT
TOWARDS 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS ON TRACK AS WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND RAPID INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS TO
BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FEET BY LATE TOMORROW.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK AT THE MOMENT WILL BECOME MODERATE AS N/NE
WINDS INCREASING SHARPLY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOOD WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH DOWN THE SATILLA AND ALTAMAHA
RIVER BASINS AND FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH OF 84 DEGREES SET AT ST SIMONS ISLAND TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  44  49  32  66 /  20  10  10   0
SSI  48  49  37  61 /  60  40  10   0
JAX  51  52  37  64 /  40  40  20   0
SGJ  55  56  44  62 /  10  50  30   0
GNV  55  56  39  70 /  20  30  10   0
OCF  58  59  44  71 /  20  30  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 060158
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
858 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...TURNING SHARPLY COLDER LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT AND LEADING LINE OF SHOWERS STEADILY PUSHING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS WERE GENERALLY IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE MAX GUST OF 39 MPH
REPORTED AT THE JAX INTL AIRPORT AT 744 PM EST. THE LINE OF
SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND WILL WASH OUT BY LATE THIS EVENING
WITH A LULL IN PCPN CHANCES UNTIL MORNING AS COLD/MOIST N/NE FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS NE FL/SE GA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO THE 40S ACROSS SE GA AND INTO THE 50S ACROSS NE FL. A
WEAK OVERRUNNING W/SW FLOW OVERTOP OF COLD/MOIST N/NE FLOW ON
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO LOW END RAIN CHANCES OF 30-50% WITH ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN STORY WILL BE CLOUDY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS STEADY IN THE 40S ACRS SE GA AND 50S ACRS NE
FL. N/NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCLUDING THE ST JOHNS
RIVER BASIN AND WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...N/NE
WINDS WILL BE 10-15G20-25 MPH FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AROUND 3000 FT ARE EXPECTED AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS
THROUGH AROUND 04Z...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR THEREAFTER. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED TO
IMPACT SSI TOWARDS 12Z...AND THEN THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA TERMINALS
AFTER 15Z. CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AT SSI TOWARDS 12Z...WITH CIGS
AT THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS LOWERING TO IFR TOWARDS 15Z. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS...WITH SURFACE SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS. WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 25 KTS BELOW 2000 FT
TOWARDS 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS ON TRACK AS WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND RAPID INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS TO
BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FEET BY LATE TOMORROW.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK AT THE MOMENT WILL BECOME MODERATE AS N/NE
WINDS INCREASING SHARPLY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOOD WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH DOWN THE SATILLA AND ALTAMAHA
RIVER BASINS AND FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH OF 84 DEGREES SET AT ST SIMONS ISLAND TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  44  49  32  66 /  20  10  10   0
SSI  48  49  37  61 /  60  40  10   0
JAX  51  52  37  64 /  40  40  20   0
SGJ  55  56  44  62 /  10  50  30   0
GNV  55  56  39  70 /  20  30  10   0
OCF  58  59  44  71 /  20  30  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 060158
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
858 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...TURNING SHARPLY COLDER LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT AND LEADING LINE OF SHOWERS STEADILY PUSHING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS WERE GENERALLY IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE MAX GUST OF 39 MPH
REPORTED AT THE JAX INTL AIRPORT AT 744 PM EST. THE LINE OF
SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND WILL WASH OUT BY LATE THIS EVENING
WITH A LULL IN PCPN CHANCES UNTIL MORNING AS COLD/MOIST N/NE FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS NE FL/SE GA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO THE 40S ACROSS SE GA AND INTO THE 50S ACROSS NE FL. A
WEAK OVERRUNNING W/SW FLOW OVERTOP OF COLD/MOIST N/NE FLOW ON
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO LOW END RAIN CHANCES OF 30-50% WITH ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN STORY WILL BE CLOUDY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS STEADY IN THE 40S ACRS SE GA AND 50S ACRS NE
FL. N/NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCLUDING THE ST JOHNS
RIVER BASIN AND WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...N/NE
WINDS WILL BE 10-15G20-25 MPH FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AROUND 3000 FT ARE EXPECTED AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS
THROUGH AROUND 04Z...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR THEREAFTER. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED TO
IMPACT SSI TOWARDS 12Z...AND THEN THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA TERMINALS
AFTER 15Z. CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AT SSI TOWARDS 12Z...WITH CIGS
AT THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS LOWERING TO IFR TOWARDS 15Z. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS...WITH SURFACE SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS. WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 25 KTS BELOW 2000 FT
TOWARDS 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS ON TRACK AS WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND RAPID INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS TO
BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FEET BY LATE TOMORROW.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK AT THE MOMENT WILL BECOME MODERATE AS N/NE
WINDS INCREASING SHARPLY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOOD WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH DOWN THE SATILLA AND ALTAMAHA
RIVER BASINS AND FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH OF 84 DEGREES SET AT ST SIMONS ISLAND TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  44  49  32  66 /  20  10  10   0
SSI  48  49  37  61 /  60  40  10   0
JAX  51  52  37  64 /  40  40  20   0
SGJ  55  56  44  62 /  10  50  30   0
GNV  55  56  39  70 /  20  30  10   0
OCF  58  59  44  71 /  20  30  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 060158
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
858 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...TURNING SHARPLY COLDER LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT AND LEADING LINE OF SHOWERS STEADILY PUSHING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS WERE GENERALLY IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE MAX GUST OF 39 MPH
REPORTED AT THE JAX INTL AIRPORT AT 744 PM EST. THE LINE OF
SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND WILL WASH OUT BY LATE THIS EVENING
WITH A LULL IN PCPN CHANCES UNTIL MORNING AS COLD/MOIST N/NE FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS NE FL/SE GA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO THE 40S ACROSS SE GA AND INTO THE 50S ACROSS NE FL. A
WEAK OVERRUNNING W/SW FLOW OVERTOP OF COLD/MOIST N/NE FLOW ON
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO LOW END RAIN CHANCES OF 30-50% WITH ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN STORY WILL BE CLOUDY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS STEADY IN THE 40S ACRS SE GA AND 50S ACRS NE
FL. N/NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCLUDING THE ST JOHNS
RIVER BASIN AND WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...N/NE
WINDS WILL BE 10-15G20-25 MPH FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AROUND 3000 FT ARE EXPECTED AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS
THROUGH AROUND 04Z...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR THEREAFTER. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED TO
IMPACT SSI TOWARDS 12Z...AND THEN THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA TERMINALS
AFTER 15Z. CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AT SSI TOWARDS 12Z...WITH CIGS
AT THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS LOWERING TO IFR TOWARDS 15Z. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS...WITH SURFACE SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS. WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 25 KTS BELOW 2000 FT
TOWARDS 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS ON TRACK AS WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND RAPID INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS TO
BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FEET BY LATE TOMORROW.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK AT THE MOMENT WILL BECOME MODERATE AS N/NE
WINDS INCREASING SHARPLY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOOD WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH DOWN THE SATILLA AND ALTAMAHA
RIVER BASINS AND FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH OF 84 DEGREES SET AT ST SIMONS ISLAND TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  44  49  32  66 /  20  10  10   0
SSI  48  49  37  61 /  60  40  10   0
JAX  51  52  37  64 /  40  40  20   0
SGJ  55  56  44  62 /  10  50  30   0
GNV  55  56  39  70 /  20  30  10   0
OCF  58  59  44  71 /  20  30  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 052031
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
331 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT THEN MUCH COLDER FRI/FRI NIGHT...

.NEAR TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ANOTHER EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD FORMED OVER THE AREA TODAY UNDER
DEEP LAYER SW FLOW WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD STREETS ORIENTED SW-NE AND
NOT MUCH CHANCE OF AN INLAND PENETRATION BY THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. HIGH TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST.

A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW RECENT TSTORMS NOTED NEAR
THE FL GULF COAST REGION WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY TREK EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON IMPACTING OUR INLAND SE GA ZONES AND PORTIONS OF
THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNSET WITH A FEW PINHEAD
SHOWERS POPPING EAST OF THE LINE. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND FROM
THE GULF COAST REGION MAINLY ACROSS OUR INLAND SE GA ZONES AND THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 800-1000 J/KG NEAR THE GULF COAST REGION...DO
NOT EXPECTED STRONG STORMS.

THE PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE FL
GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. COOLER AND BREEZY
NNE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK...LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A NOTABLE COOL DOWN WITH LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT FALLING
INTO THE 40S OVER SE GA BY DAYBREAK TO THE 50S OVER NE FL.

.SHORT TERM...FRI THROUGH SUN...

A SIGNIFICANT TRANSITION WILL OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING AS WE GO FROM
A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DREARY AND COOL DAY WITH BREEZY AND WET
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S IN THE
MORNING AND THEN STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AS A THICK DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS RESULTS IN
OVERCAST SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MANY AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
STAY IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL MOVE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY
AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING
DOWN THE COAST. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 MPH AT THE COAST WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOW
40S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR RATHER ABRUPTLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS DO
NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE BUT ENOUGH CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW NORMAL. NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL LIKELY HAVE A BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZE. LOWS ACROSS NE FL WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL HOLD
LONGER INTO THE NIGHT.

THE WEEKEND IS NOT LOOKING TOO BAD. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPLY
THE AREA WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE JUST A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS. AREAS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR WILL EVEN MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 70S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL
NIGHT BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MON THROUGH THU...

WE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A MUCH MORE MOIST PATTERN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE BOUNDARY
LIFTS BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS FOR TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST ON MONDAY AS THE
LOW TRACKS INTO THE AREA. AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY SW WINDS WHERE GUSTING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS AT THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CIGS WERE PREVAILING VFR UNDER A THICK CUMULUS FIELD GENERALLY
BETWEEN 4-5 KFT. AS THE COLD FRONT AN PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS APPROACH
FROM THE WNW THIS EVENING CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR WITH
VCSH. WINDS WILL VEER QUICKLY NORTH TRAILING THE FRONT WITH SOME
GUSTS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COASTAL SITES. SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO FADE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT
HOWEVER EXPANSIVE LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY
UNDER COOLER NNE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR
BOTH THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE LEGS AS ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL NNE WINDS
OVERSPREAD THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRI WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING
INTO SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF COAST REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING
ELEVATED SWELLS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. MODERATE RISK EXPECTED FRI AS
ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THIS
WEEKEND WILL BRING BUILDING SWELLS AND ELEVATE THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS BOTH SAT AND SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  45  51  32  66 /  40  10  10   0
SSI  47  48  37  61 /  60  20  10   0
JAX  50  51  37  64 /  40  40  20   0
SGJ  56  57  44  62 /  20  50  30   0
GNV  54  55  39  70 /  30  40  10   0
OCF  59  60  44  71 /  20  30  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/





000
FXUS62 KJAX 052031
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
331 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT THEN MUCH COLDER FRI/FRI NIGHT...

.NEAR TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ANOTHER EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD FORMED OVER THE AREA TODAY UNDER
DEEP LAYER SW FLOW WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD STREETS ORIENTED SW-NE AND
NOT MUCH CHANCE OF AN INLAND PENETRATION BY THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. HIGH TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST.

A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW RECENT TSTORMS NOTED NEAR
THE FL GULF COAST REGION WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY TREK EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON IMPACTING OUR INLAND SE GA ZONES AND PORTIONS OF
THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNSET WITH A FEW PINHEAD
SHOWERS POPPING EAST OF THE LINE. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND FROM
THE GULF COAST REGION MAINLY ACROSS OUR INLAND SE GA ZONES AND THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 800-1000 J/KG NEAR THE GULF COAST REGION...DO
NOT EXPECTED STRONG STORMS.

THE PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE FL
GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. COOLER AND BREEZY
NNE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK...LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A NOTABLE COOL DOWN WITH LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT FALLING
INTO THE 40S OVER SE GA BY DAYBREAK TO THE 50S OVER NE FL.

.SHORT TERM...FRI THROUGH SUN...

A SIGNIFICANT TRANSITION WILL OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING AS WE GO FROM
A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DREARY AND COOL DAY WITH BREEZY AND WET
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S IN THE
MORNING AND THEN STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AS A THICK DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS RESULTS IN
OVERCAST SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MANY AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
STAY IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL MOVE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY
AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING
DOWN THE COAST. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 MPH AT THE COAST WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOW
40S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR RATHER ABRUPTLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS DO
NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE BUT ENOUGH CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW NORMAL. NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL LIKELY HAVE A BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZE. LOWS ACROSS NE FL WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL HOLD
LONGER INTO THE NIGHT.

THE WEEKEND IS NOT LOOKING TOO BAD. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPLY
THE AREA WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE JUST A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS. AREAS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR WILL EVEN MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 70S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL
NIGHT BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MON THROUGH THU...

WE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A MUCH MORE MOIST PATTERN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE BOUNDARY
LIFTS BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS FOR TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST ON MONDAY AS THE
LOW TRACKS INTO THE AREA. AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY SW WINDS WHERE GUSTING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS AT THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CIGS WERE PREVAILING VFR UNDER A THICK CUMULUS FIELD GENERALLY
BETWEEN 4-5 KFT. AS THE COLD FRONT AN PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS APPROACH
FROM THE WNW THIS EVENING CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR WITH
VCSH. WINDS WILL VEER QUICKLY NORTH TRAILING THE FRONT WITH SOME
GUSTS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COASTAL SITES. SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO FADE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT
HOWEVER EXPANSIVE LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY
UNDER COOLER NNE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR
BOTH THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE LEGS AS ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL NNE WINDS
OVERSPREAD THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRI WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING
INTO SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF COAST REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING
ELEVATED SWELLS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. MODERATE RISK EXPECTED FRI AS
ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THIS
WEEKEND WILL BRING BUILDING SWELLS AND ELEVATE THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS BOTH SAT AND SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  45  51  32  66 /  40  10  10   0
SSI  47  48  37  61 /  60  20  10   0
JAX  50  51  37  64 /  40  40  20   0
SGJ  56  57  44  62 /  20  50  30   0
GNV  54  55  39  70 /  30  40  10   0
OCF  59  60  44  71 /  20  30  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/




000
FXUS62 KJAX 052031
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
331 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT THEN MUCH COLDER FRI/FRI NIGHT...

.NEAR TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ANOTHER EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD FORMED OVER THE AREA TODAY UNDER
DEEP LAYER SW FLOW WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD STREETS ORIENTED SW-NE AND
NOT MUCH CHANCE OF AN INLAND PENETRATION BY THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. HIGH TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST.

A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW RECENT TSTORMS NOTED NEAR
THE FL GULF COAST REGION WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY TREK EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON IMPACTING OUR INLAND SE GA ZONES AND PORTIONS OF
THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNSET WITH A FEW PINHEAD
SHOWERS POPPING EAST OF THE LINE. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY AS ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND FROM
THE GULF COAST REGION MAINLY ACROSS OUR INLAND SE GA ZONES AND THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 800-1000 J/KG NEAR THE GULF COAST REGION...DO
NOT EXPECTED STRONG STORMS.

THE PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE FL
GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. COOLER AND BREEZY
NNE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK...LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A NOTABLE COOL DOWN WITH LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT FALLING
INTO THE 40S OVER SE GA BY DAYBREAK TO THE 50S OVER NE FL.

.SHORT TERM...FRI THROUGH SUN...

A SIGNIFICANT TRANSITION WILL OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING AS WE GO FROM
A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DREARY AND COOL DAY WITH BREEZY AND WET
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S IN THE
MORNING AND THEN STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AS A THICK DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS RESULTS IN
OVERCAST SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MANY AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
STAY IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL MOVE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY
AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING
DOWN THE COAST. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 MPH AT THE COAST WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOW
40S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR RATHER ABRUPTLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS DO
NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE BUT ENOUGH CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW NORMAL. NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL LIKELY HAVE A BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZE. LOWS ACROSS NE FL WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL HOLD
LONGER INTO THE NIGHT.

THE WEEKEND IS NOT LOOKING TOO BAD. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPLY
THE AREA WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE JUST A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS. AREAS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR WILL EVEN MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 70S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL
NIGHT BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MON THROUGH THU...

WE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A MUCH MORE MOIST PATTERN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE BOUNDARY
LIFTS BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE BUT THE GENERAL
TREND IS FOR TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST ON MONDAY AS THE
LOW TRACKS INTO THE AREA. AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY SW WINDS WHERE GUSTING BETWEEN 20-25 KTS AT THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CIGS WERE PREVAILING VFR UNDER A THICK CUMULUS FIELD GENERALLY
BETWEEN 4-5 KFT. AS THE COLD FRONT AN PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS APPROACH
FROM THE WNW THIS EVENING CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR WITH
VCSH. WINDS WILL VEER QUICKLY NORTH TRAILING THE FRONT WITH SOME
GUSTS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COASTAL SITES. SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO FADE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT
HOWEVER EXPANSIVE LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY
UNDER COOLER NNE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR
BOTH THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE LEGS AS ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL NNE WINDS
OVERSPREAD THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRI WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING
INTO SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF COAST REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING
ELEVATED SWELLS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. MODERATE RISK EXPECTED FRI AS
ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW THIS
WEEKEND WILL BRING BUILDING SWELLS AND ELEVATE THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS BOTH SAT AND SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  45  51  32  66 /  40  10  10   0
SSI  47  48  37  61 /  60  20  10   0
JAX  50  51  37  64 /  40  40  20   0
SGJ  56  57  44  62 /  20  50  30   0
GNV  54  55  39  70 /  30  40  10   0
OCF  59  60  44  71 /  20  30  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/




000
FXUS62 KJAX 051522
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1022 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...WARM AND BREEZY TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHEARED OUT
COLD FRONT WHICH WAS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EAST OVER SOUTHERN AL.
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL NEAR OUR WESTERN GA ZONES DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TOWRAD NE FL
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH GRADUAL DWINDLING OF PRECIP
EXPECTED WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THERE IS A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING FOR A FEW
THUDNERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS SE GA AND OVER THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY OF NE FL. TEMPERATURES WERE ON TRACK TO RISE INTO THE
LOW 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S COAST UNDER DEEP LAYER SW FLOW WITH
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINING PINNED OFFSHORE. MORE CLOUD
COVER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS
RECORD HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SET TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WITH EMBEDDED IFR WERE IMPACTING THE FL
SITES THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
MORNING UNTIL HEATING CAN RAISE THE DECK MORE. DETERIOATING CIGS
EXPECTED FROM THE NW TONIGHT AS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  43  48  35 /  60  60  20  10
SSI  74  46  48  38 /  40  50  40  20
JAX  83  50  53  37 /  30  40  40  20
SGJ  79  55  57  47 /  20  30  40  30
GNV  81  55  58  40 /  20  30  30  20
OCF  82  58  61  44 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 051522
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1022 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...WARM AND BREEZY TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHEARED OUT
COLD FRONT WHICH WAS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EAST OVER SOUTHERN AL.
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL NEAR OUR WESTERN GA ZONES DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TOWRAD NE FL
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH GRADUAL DWINDLING OF PRECIP
EXPECTED WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THERE IS A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING FOR A FEW
THUDNERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS SE GA AND OVER THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY OF NE FL. TEMPERATURES WERE ON TRACK TO RISE INTO THE
LOW 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S COAST UNDER DEEP LAYER SW FLOW WITH
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINING PINNED OFFSHORE. MORE CLOUD
COVER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS
RECORD HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SET TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WITH EMBEDDED IFR WERE IMPACTING THE FL
SITES THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
MORNING UNTIL HEATING CAN RAISE THE DECK MORE. DETERIOATING CIGS
EXPECTED FROM THE NW TONIGHT AS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  43  48  35 /  60  60  20  10
SSI  74  46  48  38 /  40  50  40  20
JAX  83  50  53  37 /  30  40  40  20
SGJ  79  55  57  47 /  20  30  40  30
GNV  81  55  58  40 /  20  30  30  20
OCF  82  58  61  44 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KJAX 051522
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1022 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...WARM AND BREEZY TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHEARED OUT
COLD FRONT WHICH WAS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EAST OVER SOUTHERN AL.
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL NEAR OUR WESTERN GA ZONES DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TOWRAD NE FL
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH GRADUAL DWINDLING OF PRECIP
EXPECTED WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THERE IS A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING FOR A FEW
THUDNERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS SE GA AND OVER THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY OF NE FL. TEMPERATURES WERE ON TRACK TO RISE INTO THE
LOW 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S COAST UNDER DEEP LAYER SW FLOW WITH
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINING PINNED OFFSHORE. MORE CLOUD
COVER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS
RECORD HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SET TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WITH EMBEDDED IFR WERE IMPACTING THE FL
SITES THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
MORNING UNTIL HEATING CAN RAISE THE DECK MORE. DETERIOATING CIGS
EXPECTED FROM THE NW TONIGHT AS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  43  48  35 /  60  60  20  10
SSI  74  46  48  38 /  40  50  40  20
JAX  83  50  53  37 /  30  40  40  20
SGJ  79  55  57  47 /  20  30  40  30
GNV  81  55  58  40 /  20  30  30  20
OCF  82  58  61  44 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 051522
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1022 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...WARM AND BREEZY TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHEARED OUT
COLD FRONT WHICH WAS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EAST OVER SOUTHERN AL.
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL NEAR OUR WESTERN GA ZONES DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TOWRAD NE FL
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH GRADUAL DWINDLING OF PRECIP
EXPECTED WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THERE IS A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING FOR A FEW
THUDNERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS SE GA AND OVER THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY OF NE FL. TEMPERATURES WERE ON TRACK TO RISE INTO THE
LOW 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S COAST UNDER DEEP LAYER SW FLOW WITH
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINING PINNED OFFSHORE. MORE CLOUD
COVER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND THUS
RECORD HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SET TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WITH EMBEDDED IFR WERE IMPACTING THE FL
SITES THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
MORNING UNTIL HEATING CAN RAISE THE DECK MORE. DETERIOATING CIGS
EXPECTED FROM THE NW TONIGHT AS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  43  48  35 /  60  60  20  10
SSI  74  46  48  38 /  40  50  40  20
JAX  83  50  53  37 /  30  40  40  20
SGJ  79  55  57  47 /  20  30  40  30
GNV  81  55  58  40 /  20  30  30  20
OCF  82  58  61  44 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KJAX 051216
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
716 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...VERY WARM DAY AGAIN TODAY THEN MUCH COLDER FRIDAY...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS ARE STREAMING TO THE NE ACROSS SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY...WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF NE FL. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA NUDGING TO THE EAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE DECK REMAINING WEST OF
MOST OF NE FL. FOG WILL GENERALLY BE PATCHY.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER SE GA THIS AFTN...CROSSING NE FL TONIGHT.
WILL LEAN TOWARD A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT AND THE
NAM FOR POPS...WITH INITIAL PRECIP ENTERING SE GA EARLY THIS AFTN
WITH SOME PRECIP ENTERING NE FL BY LATE AFTN. WITH DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME MOISTURE POOLING...WILL USE HIGH END
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS FOR SE GA. WILL ALSO INCLUDE ISOLATED
TSTMS BY LATE THIS AFTN AS SOME LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS INSIGNIFICANT. PRECIP WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES NE FL WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING
GETS STRETCHED OUT. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL AGAIN
TODAY...BUT WILL STAY SHORT OF RECORD LEVELS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S INLAND WITH 70S COAST. COOLER AIR WILL WORK
IN BEHIND THE FRONT TNGT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR SE GA
AND 50S FOR NE FL.

FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH...WITH COOL NE FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONSHORE FLOW...ALONG WITH A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A RAW DAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
WILL RISE LITTLE FROM MORNING LOWS...WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
FOR NE FL/SE GA...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.


.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST RUNS PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE COOLER AIR WILL
PUSH FURTHER SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS TREND
OVER THE NEXT FEW CYCLES...AS FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SE GA IF THE FASTER TREND CONTINUES. WITH THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH...AND THE SURFACE RIDGE FAIRLY BROAD AND FLAT TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY...NOT EXPECTING AS SIGNIFICANT OF A
NORTHEAST SURGE...WHICH ALSO RESULTS IN MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT INTO SUNDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW
FAST BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY...WITH GFS FASTER AND
MORE MOIST. HAVE TRENDED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH POPS FAIRLY
LOW...AND TEMPERATURES MILDER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THEN TO THE NORTH TOWARD MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...THEN RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR TUESDAY. ONCE THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH...READINGS ABOVE
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW END MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS...WITH THE LONGEST PERIOD OF REDUCED CONDITIONS AT
SSI...WITH PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE FOR THE OTHER PORTS FROM
10-13Z. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD MAINLY MVFR.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AREA WIDE BY LATE MORNING.
MID DECK CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CROSSES. WITH PRECIP COVERAGE MAINLY SCATTERED...WILL
USE VCSH AFTER 00Z. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-14 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTN...TURNING TO THE W/NW THIS EVENING
AS THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW TONIGHT AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
BUILD BY FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.
WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR BOTH LEGS BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TNGT...WITH THE
NEARSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.


RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. MODERATE RISK
FRIDAY WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  43  48  35 /  50  60  20  10
SSI  75  46  48  38 /  30  40  40  20
JAX  84  50  53  37 /  20  40  40  20
SGJ  80  55  57  47 /  20  30  40  30
GNV  82  55  58  40 /  20  30  30  20
OCF  83  58  61  44 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.


&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE





000
FXUS62 KJAX 051216
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
716 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...VERY WARM DAY AGAIN TODAY THEN MUCH COLDER FRIDAY...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS ARE STREAMING TO THE NE ACROSS SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY...WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF NE FL. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA NUDGING TO THE EAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE DECK REMAINING WEST OF
MOST OF NE FL. FOG WILL GENERALLY BE PATCHY.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER SE GA THIS AFTN...CROSSING NE FL TONIGHT.
WILL LEAN TOWARD A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT AND THE
NAM FOR POPS...WITH INITIAL PRECIP ENTERING SE GA EARLY THIS AFTN
WITH SOME PRECIP ENTERING NE FL BY LATE AFTN. WITH DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME MOISTURE POOLING...WILL USE HIGH END
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS FOR SE GA. WILL ALSO INCLUDE ISOLATED
TSTMS BY LATE THIS AFTN AS SOME LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS INSIGNIFICANT. PRECIP WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES NE FL WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING
GETS STRETCHED OUT. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL AGAIN
TODAY...BUT WILL STAY SHORT OF RECORD LEVELS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S INLAND WITH 70S COAST. COOLER AIR WILL WORK
IN BEHIND THE FRONT TNGT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR SE GA
AND 50S FOR NE FL.

FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH...WITH COOL NE FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONSHORE FLOW...ALONG WITH A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A RAW DAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
WILL RISE LITTLE FROM MORNING LOWS...WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
FOR NE FL/SE GA...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.


.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST RUNS PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE COOLER AIR WILL
PUSH FURTHER SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS TREND
OVER THE NEXT FEW CYCLES...AS FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SE GA IF THE FASTER TREND CONTINUES. WITH THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH...AND THE SURFACE RIDGE FAIRLY BROAD AND FLAT TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY...NOT EXPECTING AS SIGNIFICANT OF A
NORTHEAST SURGE...WHICH ALSO RESULTS IN MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT INTO SUNDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW
FAST BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY...WITH GFS FASTER AND
MORE MOIST. HAVE TRENDED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH POPS FAIRLY
LOW...AND TEMPERATURES MILDER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THEN TO THE NORTH TOWARD MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...THEN RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR TUESDAY. ONCE THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH...READINGS ABOVE
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW END MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS...WITH THE LONGEST PERIOD OF REDUCED CONDITIONS AT
SSI...WITH PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE FOR THE OTHER PORTS FROM
10-13Z. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD MAINLY MVFR.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AREA WIDE BY LATE MORNING.
MID DECK CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CROSSES. WITH PRECIP COVERAGE MAINLY SCATTERED...WILL
USE VCSH AFTER 00Z. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-14 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTN...TURNING TO THE W/NW THIS EVENING
AS THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW TONIGHT AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
BUILD BY FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.
WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR BOTH LEGS BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TNGT...WITH THE
NEARSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.


RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. MODERATE RISK
FRIDAY WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  43  48  35 /  50  60  20  10
SSI  75  46  48  38 /  30  40  40  20
JAX  84  50  53  37 /  20  40  40  20
SGJ  80  55  57  47 /  20  30  40  30
GNV  82  55  58  40 /  20  30  30  20
OCF  83  58  61  44 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.


&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE




000
FXUS62 KJAX 050751
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
251 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...VERY WARM DAY AGAIN TODAY THEN MUCH COLDER FRIDAY...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS ARE STREAMING TO THE NE ACROSS SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY...WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF NE FL. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA NUDGING TO THE EAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE DECK REMAINING WEST OF
MOST OF NE FL. FOG WILL GENERALLY BE PATCHY.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER SE GA THIS AFTN...CROSSING NE FL TONIGHT.
WILL LEAN TOWARD A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT AND THE
NAM FOR POPS...WITH INITIAL PRECIP ENTERING SE GA EARLY THIS AFTN
WITH SOME PRECIP ENTERING NE FL BY LATE AFTN. WITH DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME MOISTURE POOLING...WILL USE HIGH END
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS FOR SE GA. WILL ALSO INCLUDE ISOLATED
TSTMS BY LATE THIS AFTN AS SOME LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS INSIGNIFICANT. PRECIP WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES NE FL WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING
GETS STRETCHED OUT. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL AGAIN
TODAY...BUT WILL STAY SHORT OF RECORD LEVELS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S INLAND WITH 70S COAST. COOLER AIR WILL WORK
IN BEHIND THE FRONT TNGT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR SE GA
AND 50S FOR NE FL.

FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH...WITH COOL NE FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONSHORE FLOW...ALONG WITH A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A RAW DAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
WILL RISE LITTLE FROM MORNING LOWS...WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
FOR NE FL/SE GA...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.


.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST RUNS PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE COOLER AIR WILL
PUSH FURTHER SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS TREND
OVER THE NEXT FEW CYCLES...AS FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SE GA IF THE FASTER TREND CONTINUES. WITH THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH...AND THE SURFACE RIDGE FAIRLY BROAD AND FLAT TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY...NOT EXPECTING AS SIGNIFICANT OF A
NORTHEAST SURGE...WHICH ALSO RESULTS IN MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT INTO SUNDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW
FAST BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY...WITH GFS FASTER AND
MORE MOIST. HAVE TRENDED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH POPS FAIRLY
LOW...AND TEMPERATURES MILDER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THEN TO THE NORTH TOWARD MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...THEN RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR TUESDAY. ONCE THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH...READINGS ABOVE
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW END MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS...WITH THE LONGEST PERIOD OF REDUCED CONDITIONS AT
SSI...WITH PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE FOR THE OTHER PORTS FROM
10-13Z. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD MAINLY MVFR.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AREA WIDE BY LATE MORNING.
MID DECK CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CROSSES. WITH PRECIP COVERAGE MAINLY SCATTERED...WILL
USE VCSH AFTER 00Z. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-14 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTN...TURNING TO THE W/NW THIS EVENING
AS THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW TONIGHT AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
BUILD BY FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.
WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR BOTH LEGS BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TNGT...WITH THE
NEARSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.


RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. MODERATE RISK
FRIDAY WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  43  48  35 /  50  60  20  10
SSI  75  46  48  38 /  30  40  40  20
JAX  84  50  53  37 /  20  40  40  20
SGJ  80  55  57  47 /  20  30  40  30
GNV  82  55  58  40 /  20  30  30  20
OCF  83  58  61  44 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE





000
FXUS62 KJAX 050751
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
251 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...VERY WARM DAY AGAIN TODAY THEN MUCH COLDER FRIDAY...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS ARE STREAMING TO THE NE ACROSS SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY...WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF NE FL. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA NUDGING TO THE EAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE DECK REMAINING WEST OF
MOST OF NE FL. FOG WILL GENERALLY BE PATCHY.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER SE GA THIS AFTN...CROSSING NE FL TONIGHT.
WILL LEAN TOWARD A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT AND THE
NAM FOR POPS...WITH INITIAL PRECIP ENTERING SE GA EARLY THIS AFTN
WITH SOME PRECIP ENTERING NE FL BY LATE AFTN. WITH DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME MOISTURE POOLING...WILL USE HIGH END
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS FOR SE GA. WILL ALSO INCLUDE ISOLATED
TSTMS BY LATE THIS AFTN AS SOME LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS INSIGNIFICANT. PRECIP WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES NE FL WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING
GETS STRETCHED OUT. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL AGAIN
TODAY...BUT WILL STAY SHORT OF RECORD LEVELS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S INLAND WITH 70S COAST. COOLER AIR WILL WORK
IN BEHIND THE FRONT TNGT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR SE GA
AND 50S FOR NE FL.

FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH...WITH COOL NE FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONSHORE FLOW...ALONG WITH A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A RAW DAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
WILL RISE LITTLE FROM MORNING LOWS...WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
FOR NE FL/SE GA...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.


.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST RUNS PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE COOLER AIR WILL
PUSH FURTHER SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS TREND
OVER THE NEXT FEW CYCLES...AS FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SE GA IF THE FASTER TREND CONTINUES. WITH THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH...AND THE SURFACE RIDGE FAIRLY BROAD AND FLAT TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY...NOT EXPECTING AS SIGNIFICANT OF A
NORTHEAST SURGE...WHICH ALSO RESULTS IN MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT INTO SUNDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW
FAST BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY...WITH GFS FASTER AND
MORE MOIST. HAVE TRENDED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH POPS FAIRLY
LOW...AND TEMPERATURES MILDER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THEN TO THE NORTH TOWARD MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...THEN RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR TUESDAY. ONCE THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH...READINGS ABOVE
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW END MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS...WITH THE LONGEST PERIOD OF REDUCED CONDITIONS AT
SSI...WITH PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE FOR THE OTHER PORTS FROM
10-13Z. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD MAINLY MVFR.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AREA WIDE BY LATE MORNING.
MID DECK CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CROSSES. WITH PRECIP COVERAGE MAINLY SCATTERED...WILL
USE VCSH AFTER 00Z. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-14 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTN...TURNING TO THE W/NW THIS EVENING
AS THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW TONIGHT AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
BUILD BY FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.
WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR BOTH LEGS BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TNGT...WITH THE
NEARSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.


RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. MODERATE RISK
FRIDAY WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  43  48  35 /  50  60  20  10
SSI  75  46  48  38 /  30  40  40  20
JAX  84  50  53  37 /  20  40  40  20
SGJ  80  55  57  47 /  20  30  40  30
GNV  82  55  58  40 /  20  30  30  20
OCF  83  58  61  44 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE




000
FXUS62 KJAX 050751
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
251 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...VERY WARM DAY AGAIN TODAY THEN MUCH COLDER FRIDAY...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS ARE STREAMING TO THE NE ACROSS SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY...WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF NE FL. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA NUDGING TO THE EAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE DECK REMAINING WEST OF
MOST OF NE FL. FOG WILL GENERALLY BE PATCHY.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER SE GA THIS AFTN...CROSSING NE FL TONIGHT.
WILL LEAN TOWARD A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT AND THE
NAM FOR POPS...WITH INITIAL PRECIP ENTERING SE GA EARLY THIS AFTN
WITH SOME PRECIP ENTERING NE FL BY LATE AFTN. WITH DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME MOISTURE POOLING...WILL USE HIGH END
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS FOR SE GA. WILL ALSO INCLUDE ISOLATED
TSTMS BY LATE THIS AFTN AS SOME LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS INSIGNIFICANT. PRECIP WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES NE FL WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING
GETS STRETCHED OUT. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL AGAIN
TODAY...BUT WILL STAY SHORT OF RECORD LEVELS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S INLAND WITH 70S COAST. COOLER AIR WILL WORK
IN BEHIND THE FRONT TNGT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR SE GA
AND 50S FOR NE FL.

FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH...WITH COOL NE FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONSHORE FLOW...ALONG WITH A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A RAW DAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
WILL RISE LITTLE FROM MORNING LOWS...WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
FOR NE FL/SE GA...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.


.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST RUNS PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE COOLER AIR WILL
PUSH FURTHER SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS TREND
OVER THE NEXT FEW CYCLES...AS FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SE GA IF THE FASTER TREND CONTINUES. WITH THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH...AND THE SURFACE RIDGE FAIRLY BROAD AND FLAT TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY...NOT EXPECTING AS SIGNIFICANT OF A
NORTHEAST SURGE...WHICH ALSO RESULTS IN MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT INTO SUNDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW
FAST BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY...WITH GFS FASTER AND
MORE MOIST. HAVE TRENDED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH POPS FAIRLY
LOW...AND TEMPERATURES MILDER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THEN TO THE NORTH TOWARD MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...THEN RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR TUESDAY. ONCE THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH...READINGS ABOVE
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW END MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS...WITH THE LONGEST PERIOD OF REDUCED CONDITIONS AT
SSI...WITH PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE FOR THE OTHER PORTS FROM
10-13Z. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD MAINLY MVFR.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AREA WIDE BY LATE MORNING.
MID DECK CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CROSSES. WITH PRECIP COVERAGE MAINLY SCATTERED...WILL
USE VCSH AFTER 00Z. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-14 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTN...TURNING TO THE W/NW THIS EVENING
AS THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW TONIGHT AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
BUILD BY FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.
WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR BOTH LEGS BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TNGT...WITH THE
NEARSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.


RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. MODERATE RISK
FRIDAY WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  43  48  35 /  50  60  20  10
SSI  75  46  48  38 /  30  40  40  20
JAX  84  50  53  37 /  20  40  40  20
SGJ  80  55  57  47 /  20  30  40  30
GNV  82  55  58  40 /  20  30  30  20
OCF  83  58  61  44 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE





000
FXUS62 KJAX 050751
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
251 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...VERY WARM DAY AGAIN TODAY THEN MUCH COLDER FRIDAY...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS ARE STREAMING TO THE NE ACROSS SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY...WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF NE FL. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA NUDGING TO THE EAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE DECK REMAINING WEST OF
MOST OF NE FL. FOG WILL GENERALLY BE PATCHY.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER SE GA THIS AFTN...CROSSING NE FL TONIGHT.
WILL LEAN TOWARD A BLEND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT AND THE
NAM FOR POPS...WITH INITIAL PRECIP ENTERING SE GA EARLY THIS AFTN
WITH SOME PRECIP ENTERING NE FL BY LATE AFTN. WITH DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME MOISTURE POOLING...WILL USE HIGH END
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS FOR SE GA. WILL ALSO INCLUDE ISOLATED
TSTMS BY LATE THIS AFTN AS SOME LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS INSIGNIFICANT. PRECIP WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES NE FL WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING
GETS STRETCHED OUT. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL AGAIN
TODAY...BUT WILL STAY SHORT OF RECORD LEVELS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S INLAND WITH 70S COAST. COOLER AIR WILL WORK
IN BEHIND THE FRONT TNGT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR SE GA
AND 50S FOR NE FL.

FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH...WITH COOL NE FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONSHORE FLOW...ALONG WITH A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A RAW DAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
WILL RISE LITTLE FROM MORNING LOWS...WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
FOR NE FL/SE GA...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.


.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST RUNS PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE COOLER AIR WILL
PUSH FURTHER SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS TREND
OVER THE NEXT FEW CYCLES...AS FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SE GA IF THE FASTER TREND CONTINUES. WITH THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH...AND THE SURFACE RIDGE FAIRLY BROAD AND FLAT TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY...NOT EXPECTING AS SIGNIFICANT OF A
NORTHEAST SURGE...WHICH ALSO RESULTS IN MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT INTO SUNDAY WITH REGARDS TO HOW
FAST BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY...WITH GFS FASTER AND
MORE MOIST. HAVE TRENDED BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH POPS FAIRLY
LOW...AND TEMPERATURES MILDER BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAIRLY UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THEN TO THE NORTH TOWARD MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...THEN RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR TUESDAY. ONCE THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH...READINGS ABOVE
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW END MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS...WITH THE LONGEST PERIOD OF REDUCED CONDITIONS AT
SSI...WITH PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE FOR THE OTHER PORTS FROM
10-13Z. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD MAINLY MVFR.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AREA WIDE BY LATE MORNING.
MID DECK CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CROSSES. WITH PRECIP COVERAGE MAINLY SCATTERED...WILL
USE VCSH AFTER 00Z. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-14 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTN...TURNING TO THE W/NW THIS EVENING
AS THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW TONIGHT AND
INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
BUILD BY FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY.
WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR BOTH LEGS BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TNGT...WITH THE
NEARSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.


RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. MODERATE RISK
FRIDAY WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  43  48  35 /  50  60  20  10
SSI  75  46  48  38 /  30  40  40  20
JAX  84  50  53  37 /  20  40  40  20
SGJ  80  55  57  47 /  20  30  40  30
GNV  82  55  58  40 /  20  30  30  20
OCF  83  58  61  44 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE




000
FXUS62 KJAX 050247
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
945 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...TEMPS REACHED THE MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JACKSONVILLE AIRPORT REACHING 85 DEGREES...ONE
DEGREE SHY OF TYING TODAY`S RECORD. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLENTIFUL AND IT WILL BE A VERY STICKY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
APALACHEE BAY AREA HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
BOTH THE HRRR AND NARRE DEPICT THIS FOG AND LOW STRATUS DRIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO OUR WESTERNMOST FL AND GA COUNTIES. BASED ON THIS
WE EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TO BE IN AND AROUND
THE I-75 CORRIDOR. SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
OUR COASTAL GA COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.


&&

.AVIATION...
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG
IMPACTING TAF SITES AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME
AND LINGERING UNTIL THE 12-14Z TIME FRAME BEFORE LIFTING. 2000 FEET
WINDS TONIGHT EXPECT TO INCREASE SW 25-30 KNOTS BY 09-12Z BUT WILL
FALL JUST SHORT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CRITERIA.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET WITH WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXIT AS A FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA TOMORROW. FLOW WILL SWITCH TO NORTHEAST AND BRING OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF SWELL.


RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  83  44  46 /   0  60  60  40
SSI  62  78  47  48 /   0  20  30  40
JAX  63  85  52  52 /   0  10  20  30
SGJ  65  82  57  57 /   0   0  20  30
GNV  63  85  57  60 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  63  85  60  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 050247
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
945 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...TEMPS REACHED THE MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JACKSONVILLE AIRPORT REACHING 85 DEGREES...ONE
DEGREE SHY OF TYING TODAY`S RECORD. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLENTIFUL AND IT WILL BE A VERY STICKY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
APALACHEE BAY AREA HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
BOTH THE HRRR AND NARRE DEPICT THIS FOG AND LOW STRATUS DRIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO OUR WESTERNMOST FL AND GA COUNTIES. BASED ON THIS
WE EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TO BE IN AND AROUND
THE I-75 CORRIDOR. SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
OUR COASTAL GA COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.


&&

.AVIATION...
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG
IMPACTING TAF SITES AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME
AND LINGERING UNTIL THE 12-14Z TIME FRAME BEFORE LIFTING. 2000 FEET
WINDS TONIGHT EXPECT TO INCREASE SW 25-30 KNOTS BY 09-12Z BUT WILL
FALL JUST SHORT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CRITERIA.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET WITH WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXIT AS A FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA TOMORROW. FLOW WILL SWITCH TO NORTHEAST AND BRING OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF SWELL.


RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  83  44  46 /   0  60  60  40
SSI  62  78  47  48 /   0  20  30  40
JAX  63  85  52  52 /   0  10  20  30
SGJ  65  82  57  57 /   0   0  20  30
GNV  63  85  57  60 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  63  85  60  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 050247
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
945 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...TEMPS REACHED THE MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JACKSONVILLE AIRPORT REACHING 85 DEGREES...ONE
DEGREE SHY OF TYING TODAY`S RECORD. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLENTIFUL AND IT WILL BE A VERY STICKY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
APALACHEE BAY AREA HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
BOTH THE HRRR AND NARRE DEPICT THIS FOG AND LOW STRATUS DRIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO OUR WESTERNMOST FL AND GA COUNTIES. BASED ON THIS
WE EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TO BE IN AND AROUND
THE I-75 CORRIDOR. SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
OUR COASTAL GA COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.


&&

.AVIATION...
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG
IMPACTING TAF SITES AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME
AND LINGERING UNTIL THE 12-14Z TIME FRAME BEFORE LIFTING. 2000 FEET
WINDS TONIGHT EXPECT TO INCREASE SW 25-30 KNOTS BY 09-12Z BUT WILL
FALL JUST SHORT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CRITERIA.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET WITH WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EXIT AS A FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA TOMORROW. FLOW WILL SWITCH TO NORTHEAST AND BRING OUR
NEXT CHANCE OF SWELL.


RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  83  44  46 /   0  60  60  40
SSI  62  78  47  48 /   0  20  30  40
JAX  63  85  52  52 /   0  10  20  30
SGJ  65  82  57  57 /   0   0  20  30
GNV  63  85  57  60 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  63  85  60  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 041843
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
143 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN THU THEN MUCH COOLER FRI...

.NEAR TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER AN
EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD BUT ORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED
GIVEN ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR. BREEZY SSW WINDS WILL BACK
SLIGHTLY SSE ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS BUT MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS INLAND DUE TO DEEP LAYER
SW FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO RISE TO NEAR RECORD RECORD
VALUES IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST.

EXPANSIVE AREAS OF LOW STATUS AND ADVECTIVE SEA FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
VISIBLE SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWED POCKETS OF SEA FOG FORMING IN
APALACHEE BAY. FOG WILL EDGE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH
HEATING WILL BE LIFTED INTO THE CUMULUS FIELD. BY EVENING AS TEMPS
COOL...THE FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INLAND FROM SW TO
NE THROUGH SUNRISE. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE STRATUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF DENSE FOG
BECOMES WIDESPREAD IN NATURE. MIN TEMPS WILL COOL ONLY INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM...THU-SAT...

A WARM DAY THU THEN MUCH COOLER FRI & SAT WITH LOW CHANCES OF
PASSING SHOWERS.

AFTER MORNING FOG LIFTS BETWEEN 9-11 AM...ANOTHER NEAR RECORD
WARMTH DAY EXPECTED THU UNDER BREEZY WSW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING SHEARED OUT COLD FRONT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN THU AFTN THEN AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS EJECT TO THE NE OF THE
REGION...THE FRONTAL ZONE AND PRECIP FIELD WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI BRINGING MAINLY A CHANCE OF
PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF ISOLATED TSTORMS ACROSS INLAND SE GA THU AFTN DUE TO INCREASED
INSTABILITY PHASED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING. TSTORM POTENTIAL
WILL DECREASE THU EVENING AS INSOLATION IS LOST AND THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NE FL WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO STALL. FOG WILL
LIKELY FORM AGAIN THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BRINGING LOWS IN
THE 40S OVER SE GA BY DAYBREAK FRI MORNING TO THE 50S OVER MUCH OF
NE FL.

FRI TEMPS WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS GIVEN WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND COOL NNE FLOW WITH A CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FRI NIGHT THE FRONTAL ZONE IS BRIDGED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...WHICH SHUNTS THE MOISTURE
FIELD AND COOLER TEMPS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF NE FL WITH
LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN TO LOWER
50S TOWARD OCALA.

SAT DRIER AIR FINALLY INFILTRATES FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR SE GA BY MIDDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
OVER NE FL WHERE HIGHS WILL NEAR THE LOW/MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...SUN-WED...

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL
ZONE MEANDERS OVER N-CENTRAL FL WITHOUT ANY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS TO EJECT THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD. WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWERS EACH PERIOD AND TEMPS REBOUNDING FROM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS MODERATING INTO THE 50S
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HIGHS IN THE 70S BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS GUSTING AROUND 20
KTS. LOW CIGS AND BR ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE KEPT LOW END IFR CONDITIONS
IN THE 18Z PACKAGE WITH MEDIOCRE CONFIDENCE IN LIFR CIGS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...LIFR CIGS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN FUTURE UPDATE AS LOW
CLOUD DECK MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TODAY INTO THURSDAY. BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS...WILL DROP THE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS TONIGHT AND CARRY SEAS 3-5 FT UNDER SOUTH WINDS 15 KTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND THU. INCREASED RISK FRI AND SAT
DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY. A
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE OVER INLAND SE GA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PASSING SHOWERS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY...

    TODAY THURSDAY
JAX    86 (1997)87 (1997)
GNV    89 (1997)87 (1997)
AMG    86 (1961)87 (1969)
SSI    85 (1953)    83 (1985)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  83  44  46 /   0  60  60  40
SSI  62  78  47  48 /   0  20  30  40
JAX  63  85  52  52 /   0  10  20  30
SGJ  65  82  57  57 /   0   0  20  30
GNV  63  85  57  60 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  63  85  60  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 041843
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
143 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN THU THEN MUCH COOLER FRI...

.NEAR TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER AN
EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD BUT ORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED
GIVEN ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR. BREEZY SSW WINDS WILL BACK
SLIGHTLY SSE ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS BUT MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS INLAND DUE TO DEEP LAYER
SW FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO RISE TO NEAR RECORD RECORD
VALUES IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST.

EXPANSIVE AREAS OF LOW STATUS AND ADVECTIVE SEA FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
VISIBLE SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWED POCKETS OF SEA FOG FORMING IN
APALACHEE BAY. FOG WILL EDGE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH
HEATING WILL BE LIFTED INTO THE CUMULUS FIELD. BY EVENING AS TEMPS
COOL...THE FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INLAND FROM SW TO
NE THROUGH SUNRISE. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE STRATUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF DENSE FOG
BECOMES WIDESPREAD IN NATURE. MIN TEMPS WILL COOL ONLY INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM...THU-SAT...

A WARM DAY THU THEN MUCH COOLER FRI & SAT WITH LOW CHANCES OF
PASSING SHOWERS.

AFTER MORNING FOG LIFTS BETWEEN 9-11 AM...ANOTHER NEAR RECORD
WARMTH DAY EXPECTED THU UNDER BREEZY WSW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING SHEARED OUT COLD FRONT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN THU AFTN THEN AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS EJECT TO THE NE OF THE
REGION...THE FRONTAL ZONE AND PRECIP FIELD WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI BRINGING MAINLY A CHANCE OF
PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF ISOLATED TSTORMS ACROSS INLAND SE GA THU AFTN DUE TO INCREASED
INSTABILITY PHASED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING. TSTORM POTENTIAL
WILL DECREASE THU EVENING AS INSOLATION IS LOST AND THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NE FL WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO STALL. FOG WILL
LIKELY FORM AGAIN THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BRINGING LOWS IN
THE 40S OVER SE GA BY DAYBREAK FRI MORNING TO THE 50S OVER MUCH OF
NE FL.

FRI TEMPS WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS GIVEN WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND COOL NNE FLOW WITH A CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FRI NIGHT THE FRONTAL ZONE IS BRIDGED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...WHICH SHUNTS THE MOISTURE
FIELD AND COOLER TEMPS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF NE FL WITH
LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN TO LOWER
50S TOWARD OCALA.

SAT DRIER AIR FINALLY INFILTRATES FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR SE GA BY MIDDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
OVER NE FL WHERE HIGHS WILL NEAR THE LOW/MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...SUN-WED...

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL
ZONE MEANDERS OVER N-CENTRAL FL WITHOUT ANY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS TO EJECT THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD. WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWERS EACH PERIOD AND TEMPS REBOUNDING FROM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS MODERATING INTO THE 50S
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HIGHS IN THE 70S BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS GUSTING AROUND 20
KTS. LOW CIGS AND BR ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE KEPT LOW END IFR CONDITIONS
IN THE 18Z PACKAGE WITH MEDIOCRE CONFIDENCE IN LIFR CIGS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...LIFR CIGS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN FUTURE UPDATE AS LOW
CLOUD DECK MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TODAY INTO THURSDAY. BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS...WILL DROP THE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS TONIGHT AND CARRY SEAS 3-5 FT UNDER SOUTH WINDS 15 KTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND THU. INCREASED RISK FRI AND SAT
DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY. A
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE OVER INLAND SE GA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PASSING SHOWERS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY...

    TODAY THURSDAY
JAX    86 (1997)87 (1997)
GNV    89 (1997)87 (1997)
AMG    86 (1961)87 (1969)
SSI    85 (1953)    83 (1985)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  83  44  46 /   0  60  60  40
SSI  62  78  47  48 /   0  20  30  40
JAX  63  85  52  52 /   0  10  20  30
SGJ  65  82  57  57 /   0   0  20  30
GNV  63  85  57  60 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  63  85  60  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KJAX 041843
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
143 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN THU THEN MUCH COOLER FRI...

.NEAR TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER AN
EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD BUT ORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED
GIVEN ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR. BREEZY SSW WINDS WILL BACK
SLIGHTLY SSE ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS BUT MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS INLAND DUE TO DEEP LAYER
SW FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO RISE TO NEAR RECORD RECORD
VALUES IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST.

EXPANSIVE AREAS OF LOW STATUS AND ADVECTIVE SEA FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
VISIBLE SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWED POCKETS OF SEA FOG FORMING IN
APALACHEE BAY. FOG WILL EDGE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH
HEATING WILL BE LIFTED INTO THE CUMULUS FIELD. BY EVENING AS TEMPS
COOL...THE FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INLAND FROM SW TO
NE THROUGH SUNRISE. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE STRATUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF DENSE FOG
BECOMES WIDESPREAD IN NATURE. MIN TEMPS WILL COOL ONLY INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM...THU-SAT...

A WARM DAY THU THEN MUCH COOLER FRI & SAT WITH LOW CHANCES OF
PASSING SHOWERS.

AFTER MORNING FOG LIFTS BETWEEN 9-11 AM...ANOTHER NEAR RECORD
WARMTH DAY EXPECTED THU UNDER BREEZY WSW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING SHEARED OUT COLD FRONT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN THU AFTN THEN AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS EJECT TO THE NE OF THE
REGION...THE FRONTAL ZONE AND PRECIP FIELD WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI BRINGING MAINLY A CHANCE OF
PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF ISOLATED TSTORMS ACROSS INLAND SE GA THU AFTN DUE TO INCREASED
INSTABILITY PHASED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING. TSTORM POTENTIAL
WILL DECREASE THU EVENING AS INSOLATION IS LOST AND THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NE FL WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO STALL. FOG WILL
LIKELY FORM AGAIN THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BRINGING LOWS IN
THE 40S OVER SE GA BY DAYBREAK FRI MORNING TO THE 50S OVER MUCH OF
NE FL.

FRI TEMPS WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS GIVEN WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND COOL NNE FLOW WITH A CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FRI NIGHT THE FRONTAL ZONE IS BRIDGED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...WHICH SHUNTS THE MOISTURE
FIELD AND COOLER TEMPS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF NE FL WITH
LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN TO LOWER
50S TOWARD OCALA.

SAT DRIER AIR FINALLY INFILTRATES FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR SE GA BY MIDDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
OVER NE FL WHERE HIGHS WILL NEAR THE LOW/MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...SUN-WED...

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL
ZONE MEANDERS OVER N-CENTRAL FL WITHOUT ANY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS TO EJECT THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD. WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWERS EACH PERIOD AND TEMPS REBOUNDING FROM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS MODERATING INTO THE 50S
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HIGHS IN THE 70S BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS GUSTING AROUND 20
KTS. LOW CIGS AND BR ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE KEPT LOW END IFR CONDITIONS
IN THE 18Z PACKAGE WITH MEDIOCRE CONFIDENCE IN LIFR CIGS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...LIFR CIGS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN FUTURE UPDATE AS LOW
CLOUD DECK MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TODAY INTO THURSDAY. BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS...WILL DROP THE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS TONIGHT AND CARRY SEAS 3-5 FT UNDER SOUTH WINDS 15 KTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND THU. INCREASED RISK FRI AND SAT
DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY. A
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE OVER INLAND SE GA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PASSING SHOWERS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY...

    TODAY THURSDAY
JAX    86 (1997)87 (1997)
GNV    89 (1997)87 (1997)
AMG    86 (1961)87 (1969)
SSI    85 (1953)    83 (1985)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  83  44  46 /   0  60  60  40
SSI  62  78  47  48 /   0  20  30  40
JAX  63  85  52  52 /   0  10  20  30
SGJ  65  82  57  57 /   0   0  20  30
GNV  63  85  57  60 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  63  85  60  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 041843
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
143 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN THU THEN MUCH COOLER FRI...

.NEAR TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER AN
EXPANSIVE CUMULUS FIELD BUT ORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED
GIVEN ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR. BREEZY SSW WINDS WILL BACK
SLIGHTLY SSE ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS BUT MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS INLAND DUE TO DEEP LAYER
SW FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO RISE TO NEAR RECORD RECORD
VALUES IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST.

EXPANSIVE AREAS OF LOW STATUS AND ADVECTIVE SEA FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
VISIBLE SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWED POCKETS OF SEA FOG FORMING IN
APALACHEE BAY. FOG WILL EDGE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH
HEATING WILL BE LIFTED INTO THE CUMULUS FIELD. BY EVENING AS TEMPS
COOL...THE FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INLAND FROM SW TO
NE THROUGH SUNRISE. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE STRATUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF DENSE FOG
BECOMES WIDESPREAD IN NATURE. MIN TEMPS WILL COOL ONLY INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM...THU-SAT...

A WARM DAY THU THEN MUCH COOLER FRI & SAT WITH LOW CHANCES OF
PASSING SHOWERS.

AFTER MORNING FOG LIFTS BETWEEN 9-11 AM...ANOTHER NEAR RECORD
WARMTH DAY EXPECTED THU UNDER BREEZY WSW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING SHEARED OUT COLD FRONT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN THU AFTN THEN AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS EJECT TO THE NE OF THE
REGION...THE FRONTAL ZONE AND PRECIP FIELD WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI BRINGING MAINLY A CHANCE OF
PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF ISOLATED TSTORMS ACROSS INLAND SE GA THU AFTN DUE TO INCREASED
INSTABILITY PHASED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING. TSTORM POTENTIAL
WILL DECREASE THU EVENING AS INSOLATION IS LOST AND THE FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NE FL WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO STALL. FOG WILL
LIKELY FORM AGAIN THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BRINGING LOWS IN
THE 40S OVER SE GA BY DAYBREAK FRI MORNING TO THE 50S OVER MUCH OF
NE FL.

FRI TEMPS WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS GIVEN WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND COOL NNE FLOW WITH A CONTINUATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

FRI NIGHT THE FRONTAL ZONE IS BRIDGED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...WHICH SHUNTS THE MOISTURE
FIELD AND COOLER TEMPS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF NE FL WITH
LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN TO LOWER
50S TOWARD OCALA.

SAT DRIER AIR FINALLY INFILTRATES FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR SE GA BY MIDDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
OVER NE FL WHERE HIGHS WILL NEAR THE LOW/MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...SUN-WED...

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL
ZONE MEANDERS OVER N-CENTRAL FL WITHOUT ANY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS TO EJECT THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD. WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWERS EACH PERIOD AND TEMPS REBOUNDING FROM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS MODERATING INTO THE 50S
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HIGHS IN THE 70S BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS GUSTING AROUND 20
KTS. LOW CIGS AND BR ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE KEPT LOW END IFR CONDITIONS
IN THE 18Z PACKAGE WITH MEDIOCRE CONFIDENCE IN LIFR CIGS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...LIFR CIGS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN FUTURE UPDATE AS LOW
CLOUD DECK MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TODAY INTO THURSDAY. BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS...WILL DROP THE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS TONIGHT AND CARRY SEAS 3-5 FT UNDER SOUTH WINDS 15 KTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND THU. INCREASED RISK FRI AND SAT
DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY. A
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE OVER INLAND SE GA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PASSING SHOWERS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU
NIGHT INTO FRI AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY...

    TODAY THURSDAY
JAX    86 (1997)87 (1997)
GNV    89 (1997)87 (1997)
AMG    86 (1961)87 (1969)
SSI    85 (1953)    83 (1985)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  83  44  46 /   0  60  60  40
SSI  62  78  47  48 /   0  20  30  40
JAX  63  85  52  52 /   0  10  20  30
SGJ  65  82  57  57 /   0   0  20  30
GNV  63  85  57  60 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  63  85  60  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KJAX 041532
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1032 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY UNDER BREEZY AND SUNNY SKIES...

.UPDATE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT
STILL SUPPORTED NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY UNDER BREEZY SSW WINDS
INLAND AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. CLOSER TO THE
COAST A MID-LATE AFTERNOON SEA COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED...BUT
WILL LIKELY BE PINNED EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL
SSW WINDS AS EVIDENCED BY THE CUMULUS CLOUD STREETS THIS MORNING.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH THE BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THE AREA FORM
THE GULF COAST REGION TOWARD THE ATLANTIC AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS
TIME BELIEVE THE EVENT WILL MAINLY BE LOW CLOUDS SINCE LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG FORMATION.

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY...

TODAY THURSDAY
JAX    86 (1997)87 (1997)
GNV    89 (1997)87 (1997)
AMG   86 (1961)87 (1969)
SSI    85 (1953)    83 (1985)

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO CIGS TODAY.
TONIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO EDGE EASTWARD
FROM THE WEST WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...SSE WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY NEARSHORE AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS 3-4 FT NEARSHORE UP TO 6 FT
OFFSHORE NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND CONTINUED WITH A SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  63  80  44 /   0   0  60  60
SSI  72  61  74  47 /   0   0  20  30
JAX  85  65  84  52 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  79  65  78  57 /   0   0   0  20
GNV  85  62  84  57 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  86  62  85  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KJAX 041532
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1032 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY UNDER BREEZY AND SUNNY SKIES...

.UPDATE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT
STILL SUPPORTED NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY UNDER BREEZY SSW WINDS
INLAND AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. CLOSER TO THE
COAST A MID-LATE AFTERNOON SEA COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED...BUT
WILL LIKELY BE PINNED EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL
SSW WINDS AS EVIDENCED BY THE CUMULUS CLOUD STREETS THIS MORNING.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH THE BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THE AREA FORM
THE GULF COAST REGION TOWARD THE ATLANTIC AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS
TIME BELIEVE THE EVENT WILL MAINLY BE LOW CLOUDS SINCE LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG FORMATION.

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY...

TODAY THURSDAY
JAX    86 (1997)87 (1997)
GNV    89 (1997)87 (1997)
AMG   86 (1961)87 (1969)
SSI    85 (1953)    83 (1985)

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO CIGS TODAY.
TONIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO EDGE EASTWARD
FROM THE WEST WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...SSE WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY NEARSHORE AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS 3-4 FT NEARSHORE UP TO 6 FT
OFFSHORE NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND CONTINUED WITH A SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  63  80  44 /   0   0  60  60
SSI  72  61  74  47 /   0   0  20  30
JAX  85  65  84  52 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  79  65  78  57 /   0   0   0  20
GNV  85  62  84  57 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  86  62  85  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 041532
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1032 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY UNDER BREEZY AND SUNNY SKIES...

.UPDATE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT
STILL SUPPORTED NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY UNDER BREEZY SSW WINDS
INLAND AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. CLOSER TO THE
COAST A MID-LATE AFTERNOON SEA COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED...BUT
WILL LIKELY BE PINNED EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL
SSW WINDS AS EVIDENCED BY THE CUMULUS CLOUD STREETS THIS MORNING.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH THE BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THE AREA FORM
THE GULF COAST REGION TOWARD THE ATLANTIC AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS
TIME BELIEVE THE EVENT WILL MAINLY BE LOW CLOUDS SINCE LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG FORMATION.

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY...

TODAY THURSDAY
JAX    86 (1997)87 (1997)
GNV    89 (1997)87 (1997)
AMG   86 (1961)87 (1969)
SSI    85 (1953)    83 (1985)

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO CIGS TODAY.
TONIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO EDGE EASTWARD
FROM THE WEST WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...SSE WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY NEARSHORE AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS 3-4 FT NEARSHORE UP TO 6 FT
OFFSHORE NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND CONTINUED WITH A SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  63  80  44 /   0   0  60  60
SSI  72  61  74  47 /   0   0  20  30
JAX  85  65  84  52 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  79  65  78  57 /   0   0   0  20
GNV  85  62  84  57 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  86  62  85  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 041532
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1032 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY UNDER BREEZY AND SUNNY SKIES...

.UPDATE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT
STILL SUPPORTED NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY UNDER BREEZY SSW WINDS
INLAND AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. CLOSER TO THE
COAST A MID-LATE AFTERNOON SEA COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED...BUT
WILL LIKELY BE PINNED EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL
SSW WINDS AS EVIDENCED BY THE CUMULUS CLOUD STREETS THIS MORNING.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE NIGHT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
WITH THE BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THE AREA FORM
THE GULF COAST REGION TOWARD THE ATLANTIC AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS
TIME BELIEVE THE EVENT WILL MAINLY BE LOW CLOUDS SINCE LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG FORMATION.

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY...

TODAY THURSDAY
JAX    86 (1997)87 (1997)
GNV    89 (1997)87 (1997)
AMG   86 (1961)87 (1969)
SSI    85 (1953)    83 (1985)

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO CIGS TODAY.
TONIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO EDGE EASTWARD
FROM THE WEST WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...SSE WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY NEARSHORE AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS 3-4 FT NEARSHORE UP TO 6 FT
OFFSHORE NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND CONTINUED WITH A SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  63  80  44 /   0   0  60  60
SSI  72  61  74  47 /   0   0  20  30
JAX  85  65  84  52 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  79  65  78  57 /   0   0   0  20
GNV  85  62  84  57 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  86  62  85  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 040701
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
201 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE WELL ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. THIS SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE SEA FOG BEING PUSHED TO THE
NORTH ALONG THE SC COAST. IN ADDITION...SOME WIND WILL AT LEAST
DELAY THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS/FIG FURTHER INLAND. WILL CONTINUE
TO USE AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO MID MORNING TODAY...BUT
DENSE FOG COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS.

LATER TODAY...AFTER THE MID/LATE MORNING DISSIPATION OF THE
LOW CLOUDS/FOG...INCREASING S/SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
WARMUP...WITH INLAND LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 80S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A RECORD HIGH OR TWO BEGIN TIED/SET NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. THE TEMP FCST IS A BIT MORE TRICKY FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS AS LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG ON A BIT LONGER...BUT EVEN THERE
A SLIGHT OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S THERE.

TNGT/THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST...WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA TONIGHT GETTING A LITTLE
PUSH THURSDAY...WITH THE FRONT ENTERING SE GA THURSDAY AFTN. MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE TO STRETCH OUT THE MID/UPPER FORCING AS THE BOUNDARY
NUDGES SOUTHWARD...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SE
GA INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTN...WITH LITTLE/NO PRECIP
FURTHER SOUTH. MILD 60S WILL PREVAIL FOR LOWS TNGT...WITH ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY THURSDAY UNDER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH HIGHS
INLAND ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 80S...AND 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WITH INSTABILITY LIMITED...WILL KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE FCST.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH...SO WILL TREND PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE LOWER END. A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE 24 HOUR HIGH FOR THE
DAY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILDER ON SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION SUBSIDES.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. AS THE HIGH TRACKS FROM
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
WILL WAVER NORTH AT TIMES AS WAVES OF ENERGY DEVELOP IN THE GULF
AND EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...ALLOWING MORE WARM
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING TODAY.
WITH SOME SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THINK
FOG COVERAGE AT THE PORTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF MORNINGS. WILL USE PREVAILING MVFR LATER TONIGHT WITH
AREAS OF IFR...WITH FOG DISSIPATING BY LATE MORNING AREA WIDE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH
CAUTION CONDITIONS LIKELY TONIGHT/THURSDAY OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY. WINDS/SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY WITH OFFSHORE/SIDESHORE
FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY...

TODAY THURSDAY
JAX    86 (1997)87 (1997)
GNV    89 (1997)87 (1997)
AMG   86 (1961)87 (1969)
SSI    85 (1953)    83 (1985)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  63  80  44 /   0  10  50  40
SSI  72  61  74  47 /   0   0  10  50
JAX  85  65  84  52 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  79  65  78  57 /   0  10  10  20
GNV  85  62  84  57 /   0  10  10  20
OCF  86  62  85  59 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE




000
FXUS62 KJAX 040701
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
201 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE WELL ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. THIS SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE SEA FOG BEING PUSHED TO THE
NORTH ALONG THE SC COAST. IN ADDITION...SOME WIND WILL AT LEAST
DELAY THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS/FIG FURTHER INLAND. WILL CONTINUE
TO USE AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO MID MORNING TODAY...BUT
DENSE FOG COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS.

LATER TODAY...AFTER THE MID/LATE MORNING DISSIPATION OF THE
LOW CLOUDS/FOG...INCREASING S/SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
WARMUP...WITH INLAND LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 80S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A RECORD HIGH OR TWO BEGIN TIED/SET NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. THE TEMP FCST IS A BIT MORE TRICKY FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS AS LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG ON A BIT LONGER...BUT EVEN THERE
A SLIGHT OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S THERE.

TNGT/THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST...WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA TONIGHT GETTING A LITTLE
PUSH THURSDAY...WITH THE FRONT ENTERING SE GA THURSDAY AFTN. MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE TO STRETCH OUT THE MID/UPPER FORCING AS THE BOUNDARY
NUDGES SOUTHWARD...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SE
GA INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTN...WITH LITTLE/NO PRECIP
FURTHER SOUTH. MILD 60S WILL PREVAIL FOR LOWS TNGT...WITH ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY THURSDAY UNDER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH HIGHS
INLAND ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 80S...AND 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WITH INSTABILITY LIMITED...WILL KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE FCST.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH...SO WILL TREND PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE LOWER END. A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE 24 HOUR HIGH FOR THE
DAY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILDER ON SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION SUBSIDES.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. AS THE HIGH TRACKS FROM
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
WILL WAVER NORTH AT TIMES AS WAVES OF ENERGY DEVELOP IN THE GULF
AND EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...ALLOWING MORE WARM
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING TODAY.
WITH SOME SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THINK
FOG COVERAGE AT THE PORTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF MORNINGS. WILL USE PREVAILING MVFR LATER TONIGHT WITH
AREAS OF IFR...WITH FOG DISSIPATING BY LATE MORNING AREA WIDE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH
CAUTION CONDITIONS LIKELY TONIGHT/THURSDAY OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY. WINDS/SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY WITH OFFSHORE/SIDESHORE
FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY...

TODAY THURSDAY
JAX    86 (1997)87 (1997)
GNV    89 (1997)87 (1997)
AMG   86 (1961)87 (1969)
SSI    85 (1953)    83 (1985)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  63  80  44 /   0  10  50  40
SSI  72  61  74  47 /   0   0  10  50
JAX  85  65  84  52 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  79  65  78  57 /   0  10  10  20
GNV  85  62  84  57 /   0  10  10  20
OCF  86  62  85  59 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE





000
FXUS62 KJAX 040701
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
201 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE WELL ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. THIS SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE SEA FOG BEING PUSHED TO THE
NORTH ALONG THE SC COAST. IN ADDITION...SOME WIND WILL AT LEAST
DELAY THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS/FIG FURTHER INLAND. WILL CONTINUE
TO USE AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO MID MORNING TODAY...BUT
DENSE FOG COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS.

LATER TODAY...AFTER THE MID/LATE MORNING DISSIPATION OF THE
LOW CLOUDS/FOG...INCREASING S/SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
WARMUP...WITH INLAND LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 80S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A RECORD HIGH OR TWO BEGIN TIED/SET NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. THE TEMP FCST IS A BIT MORE TRICKY FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS AS LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG ON A BIT LONGER...BUT EVEN THERE
A SLIGHT OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S THERE.

TNGT/THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST...WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA TONIGHT GETTING A LITTLE
PUSH THURSDAY...WITH THE FRONT ENTERING SE GA THURSDAY AFTN. MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE TO STRETCH OUT THE MID/UPPER FORCING AS THE BOUNDARY
NUDGES SOUTHWARD...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SE
GA INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTN...WITH LITTLE/NO PRECIP
FURTHER SOUTH. MILD 60S WILL PREVAIL FOR LOWS TNGT...WITH ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY THURSDAY UNDER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH HIGHS
INLAND ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 80S...AND 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WITH INSTABILITY LIMITED...WILL KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE FCST.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH...SO WILL TREND PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE LOWER END. A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE 24 HOUR HIGH FOR THE
DAY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILDER ON SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION SUBSIDES.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. AS THE HIGH TRACKS FROM
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
WILL WAVER NORTH AT TIMES AS WAVES OF ENERGY DEVELOP IN THE GULF
AND EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...ALLOWING MORE WARM
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING TODAY.
WITH SOME SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THINK
FOG COVERAGE AT THE PORTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF MORNINGS. WILL USE PREVAILING MVFR LATER TONIGHT WITH
AREAS OF IFR...WITH FOG DISSIPATING BY LATE MORNING AREA WIDE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH
CAUTION CONDITIONS LIKELY TONIGHT/THURSDAY OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY. WINDS/SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY WITH OFFSHORE/SIDESHORE
FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY...

TODAY THURSDAY
JAX    86 (1997)87 (1997)
GNV    89 (1997)87 (1997)
AMG   86 (1961)87 (1969)
SSI    85 (1953)    83 (1985)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  63  80  44 /   0  10  50  40
SSI  72  61  74  47 /   0   0  10  50
JAX  85  65  84  52 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  79  65  78  57 /   0  10  10  20
GNV  85  62  84  57 /   0  10  10  20
OCF  86  62  85  59 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE





000
FXUS62 KJAX 040701
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
201 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE WELL ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. THIS SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE SEA FOG BEING PUSHED TO THE
NORTH ALONG THE SC COAST. IN ADDITION...SOME WIND WILL AT LEAST
DELAY THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS/FIG FURTHER INLAND. WILL CONTINUE
TO USE AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO MID MORNING TODAY...BUT
DENSE FOG COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS.

LATER TODAY...AFTER THE MID/LATE MORNING DISSIPATION OF THE
LOW CLOUDS/FOG...INCREASING S/SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
WARMUP...WITH INLAND LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 80S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A RECORD HIGH OR TWO BEGIN TIED/SET NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. THE TEMP FCST IS A BIT MORE TRICKY FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS AS LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG ON A BIT LONGER...BUT EVEN THERE
A SLIGHT OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S THERE.

TNGT/THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST...WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA TONIGHT GETTING A LITTLE
PUSH THURSDAY...WITH THE FRONT ENTERING SE GA THURSDAY AFTN. MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE TO STRETCH OUT THE MID/UPPER FORCING AS THE BOUNDARY
NUDGES SOUTHWARD...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SE
GA INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTN...WITH LITTLE/NO PRECIP
FURTHER SOUTH. MILD 60S WILL PREVAIL FOR LOWS TNGT...WITH ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY THURSDAY UNDER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH HIGHS
INLAND ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 80S...AND 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WITH INSTABILITY LIMITED...WILL KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE FCST.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH...SO WILL TREND PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE LOWER END. A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE 24 HOUR HIGH FOR THE
DAY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILDER ON SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION SUBSIDES.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. AS THE HIGH TRACKS FROM
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
WILL WAVER NORTH AT TIMES AS WAVES OF ENERGY DEVELOP IN THE GULF
AND EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...ALLOWING MORE WARM
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING TODAY.
WITH SOME SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THINK
FOG COVERAGE AT THE PORTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF MORNINGS. WILL USE PREVAILING MVFR LATER TONIGHT WITH
AREAS OF IFR...WITH FOG DISSIPATING BY LATE MORNING AREA WIDE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH
CAUTION CONDITIONS LIKELY TONIGHT/THURSDAY OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY. WINDS/SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY WITH OFFSHORE/SIDESHORE
FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY...

TODAY THURSDAY
JAX    86 (1997)87 (1997)
GNV    89 (1997)87 (1997)
AMG   86 (1961)87 (1969)
SSI    85 (1953)    83 (1985)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  63  80  44 /   0  10  50  40
SSI  72  61  74  47 /   0   0  10  50
JAX  85  65  84  52 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  79  65  78  57 /   0  10  10  20
GNV  85  62  84  57 /   0  10  10  20
OCF  86  62  85  59 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE




000
FXUS62 KJAX 040701
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
201 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE WELL ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. THIS SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE SEA FOG BEING PUSHED TO THE
NORTH ALONG THE SC COAST. IN ADDITION...SOME WIND WILL AT LEAST
DELAY THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS/FIG FURTHER INLAND. WILL CONTINUE
TO USE AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO MID MORNING TODAY...BUT
DENSE FOG COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS.

LATER TODAY...AFTER THE MID/LATE MORNING DISSIPATION OF THE
LOW CLOUDS/FOG...INCREASING S/SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
WARMUP...WITH INLAND LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 80S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A RECORD HIGH OR TWO BEGIN TIED/SET NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. THE TEMP FCST IS A BIT MORE TRICKY FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS AS LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG ON A BIT LONGER...BUT EVEN THERE
A SLIGHT OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S THERE.

TNGT/THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST...WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA TONIGHT GETTING A LITTLE
PUSH THURSDAY...WITH THE FRONT ENTERING SE GA THURSDAY AFTN. MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE TO STRETCH OUT THE MID/UPPER FORCING AS THE BOUNDARY
NUDGES SOUTHWARD...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SE
GA INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTN...WITH LITTLE/NO PRECIP
FURTHER SOUTH. MILD 60S WILL PREVAIL FOR LOWS TNGT...WITH ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY THURSDAY UNDER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH HIGHS
INLAND ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 80S...AND 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WITH INSTABILITY LIMITED...WILL KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE FCST.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH...SO WILL TREND PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE LOWER END. A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE 24 HOUR HIGH FOR THE
DAY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILDER ON SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION SUBSIDES.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. AS THE HIGH TRACKS FROM
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
WILL WAVER NORTH AT TIMES AS WAVES OF ENERGY DEVELOP IN THE GULF
AND EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...ALLOWING MORE WARM
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING TODAY.
WITH SOME SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THINK
FOG COVERAGE AT THE PORTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF MORNINGS. WILL USE PREVAILING MVFR LATER TONIGHT WITH
AREAS OF IFR...WITH FOG DISSIPATING BY LATE MORNING AREA WIDE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH
CAUTION CONDITIONS LIKELY TONIGHT/THURSDAY OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY. WINDS/SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY WITH OFFSHORE/SIDESHORE
FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY...

TODAY THURSDAY
JAX    86 (1997)87 (1997)
GNV    89 (1997)87 (1997)
AMG   86 (1961)87 (1969)
SSI    85 (1953)    83 (1985)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  63  80  44 /   0  10  50  40
SSI  72  61  74  47 /   0   0  10  50
JAX  85  65  84  52 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  79  65  78  57 /   0  10  10  20
GNV  85  62  84  57 /   0  10  10  20
OCF  86  62  85  59 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE




000
FXUS62 KJAX 040701
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
201 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE WELL ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. THIS SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE SEA FOG BEING PUSHED TO THE
NORTH ALONG THE SC COAST. IN ADDITION...SOME WIND WILL AT LEAST
DELAY THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS/FIG FURTHER INLAND. WILL CONTINUE
TO USE AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO MID MORNING TODAY...BUT
DENSE FOG COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS.

LATER TODAY...AFTER THE MID/LATE MORNING DISSIPATION OF THE
LOW CLOUDS/FOG...INCREASING S/SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
WARMUP...WITH INLAND LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 80S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A RECORD HIGH OR TWO BEGIN TIED/SET NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. THE TEMP FCST IS A BIT MORE TRICKY FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS AS LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG ON A BIT LONGER...BUT EVEN THERE
A SLIGHT OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S THERE.

TNGT/THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST...WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL GA TONIGHT GETTING A LITTLE
PUSH THURSDAY...WITH THE FRONT ENTERING SE GA THURSDAY AFTN. MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE TO STRETCH OUT THE MID/UPPER FORCING AS THE BOUNDARY
NUDGES SOUTHWARD...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SE
GA INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTN...WITH LITTLE/NO PRECIP
FURTHER SOUTH. MILD 60S WILL PREVAIL FOR LOWS TNGT...WITH ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY THURSDAY UNDER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH HIGHS
INLAND ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 80S...AND 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WITH INSTABILITY LIMITED...WILL KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE FCST.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH...SO WILL TREND PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE LOWER END. A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST INTO
SATURDAY...WITH WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE 24 HOUR HIGH FOR THE
DAY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILDER ON SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION SUBSIDES.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. AS THE HIGH TRACKS FROM
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
WILL WAVER NORTH AT TIMES AS WAVES OF ENERGY DEVELOP IN THE GULF
AND EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...ALLOWING MORE WARM
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING TODAY.
WITH SOME SOUTHERLY WIND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THINK
FOG COVERAGE AT THE PORTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF MORNINGS. WILL USE PREVAILING MVFR LATER TONIGHT WITH
AREAS OF IFR...WITH FOG DISSIPATING BY LATE MORNING AREA WIDE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH
CAUTION CONDITIONS LIKELY TONIGHT/THURSDAY OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY. WINDS/SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY WITH OFFSHORE/SIDESHORE
FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY...

TODAY THURSDAY
JAX    86 (1997)87 (1997)
GNV    89 (1997)87 (1997)
AMG   86 (1961)87 (1969)
SSI    85 (1953)    83 (1985)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  63  80  44 /   0  10  50  40
SSI  72  61  74  47 /   0   0  10  50
JAX  85  65  84  52 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  79  65  78  57 /   0  10  10  20
GNV  85  62  84  57 /   0  10  10  20
OCF  86  62  85  59 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE




000
FXUS62 KJAX 040126
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
826 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS LATER TONIGHT...

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY...

.UPDATE...
MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS SET-UP SOUTH OF STATIONARY FRONT WHICH
LIES E-W ACROSS CENTRAL GA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. THE SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FLOW TONIGHT WILL HOLD OFF FOG DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND SEA FOG ALONG THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS WILL
IMPACT MAINLY AREAS NEAR THE COAST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT PUSH
IT AS FAR INLAND AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. EVEN WITH MOIST DEWPOINTS
INTO THE LOWER 60S...EXPECT A COMBINATION OF FOG/STRATUS TO
DEVELOP BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VSBYS MAY NOT BE AS
LOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE WITH LOWER VSBYS IN SEA FOG
ALONG THE SE GA COAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ANY SPECIFIC
AREAS FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO ISSUE ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT
IN TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE MILD AROUND 60 DEGREES.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE MILD START ALONG WITH INCREASING S/SW FLOW TO
15G20-25 MPH WILL JUMP TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR ALL
INLAND LOCATIONS WITH MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. WILL PROBABLY
FALL JUST OF RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN CLIMATE SECTION BELOW BUT NOT
OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY OF REACHING THE 86 DEGREES AT
JAX/AMG LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT
WITH LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG. HRRR SHOWS MOST PROLONGED REDUCED
VSBYS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST FROM JACKSONVILLE BEACH NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WITH VSBYS QUICKLY REDUCING TO A QUARTER
MILE OR LESS FROM NOW UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN. FOG IS EXPECTED
TO MORE INTERMITTENT YET IFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NE FL
TERMINALS WITH KVQQ BEING A LITTLE LOWER DUE TO LOCATION OF
WEATHER SENSOR. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR STARTING MID MORNING
WED WITH RADIATIONAL HEATING AND MIXING OF S-SW WINDS AT 10 KNOTS
AROUND 15Z. KSSI VSBYS MAY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 16Z DUE TO COASTAL
FOG LINGERING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE TO 3-5 FT
OFFSHORE AND WILL SLOWLY INCREASE EVEN MORE TO 15-20 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SCEC HEADLINES LATER IN THE DAY. MAIN
CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS...WILL BE A BATTLE AS S/SE FLOW INCREASES
SLIGHTLY AND MAY END UP BEING A COMBINATION OF SEA FOG AND LOW
STRATUS...AND NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH EASTERLY
SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOOD WAVE CONTINUES TO TRAVEL SLOWLY DOWN ATLAMAHA AND
SATILLA RIVER BASINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MARCH 4TH...
JAX 86/1997...GNV 89/1997...AMG 86/1961...SSI 85/1953

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  83  62  81 /  20   0  10  30
SSI  57  74  59  76 /  10   0  10  30
JAX  61  84  62  84 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  62  81  61  80 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  61  85  60  83 /  10   0  10  20
OCF  61  85  60  84 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/CORDERO/SHULER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 040126
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
826 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS LATER TONIGHT...

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY...

.UPDATE...
MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS SET-UP SOUTH OF STATIONARY FRONT WHICH
LIES E-W ACROSS CENTRAL GA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. THE SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FLOW TONIGHT WILL HOLD OFF FOG DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND SEA FOG ALONG THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS WILL
IMPACT MAINLY AREAS NEAR THE COAST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT PUSH
IT AS FAR INLAND AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. EVEN WITH MOIST DEWPOINTS
INTO THE LOWER 60S...EXPECT A COMBINATION OF FOG/STRATUS TO
DEVELOP BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VSBYS MAY NOT BE AS
LOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE WITH LOWER VSBYS IN SEA FOG
ALONG THE SE GA COAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ANY SPECIFIC
AREAS FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO ISSUE ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT
IN TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE MILD AROUND 60 DEGREES.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE MILD START ALONG WITH INCREASING S/SW FLOW TO
15G20-25 MPH WILL JUMP TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR ALL
INLAND LOCATIONS WITH MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. WILL PROBABLY
FALL JUST OF RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN CLIMATE SECTION BELOW BUT NOT
OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY OF REACHING THE 86 DEGREES AT
JAX/AMG LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT
WITH LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG. HRRR SHOWS MOST PROLONGED REDUCED
VSBYS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST FROM JACKSONVILLE BEACH NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WITH VSBYS QUICKLY REDUCING TO A QUARTER
MILE OR LESS FROM NOW UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN. FOG IS EXPECTED
TO MORE INTERMITTENT YET IFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NE FL
TERMINALS WITH KVQQ BEING A LITTLE LOWER DUE TO LOCATION OF
WEATHER SENSOR. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR STARTING MID MORNING
WED WITH RADIATIONAL HEATING AND MIXING OF S-SW WINDS AT 10 KNOTS
AROUND 15Z. KSSI VSBYS MAY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 16Z DUE TO COASTAL
FOG LINGERING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE TO 3-5 FT
OFFSHORE AND WILL SLOWLY INCREASE EVEN MORE TO 15-20 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SCEC HEADLINES LATER IN THE DAY. MAIN
CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS...WILL BE A BATTLE AS S/SE FLOW INCREASES
SLIGHTLY AND MAY END UP BEING A COMBINATION OF SEA FOG AND LOW
STRATUS...AND NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH EASTERLY
SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOOD WAVE CONTINUES TO TRAVEL SLOWLY DOWN ATLAMAHA AND
SATILLA RIVER BASINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MARCH 4TH...
JAX 86/1997...GNV 89/1997...AMG 86/1961...SSI 85/1953

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  83  62  81 /  20   0  10  30
SSI  57  74  59  76 /  10   0  10  30
JAX  61  84  62  84 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  62  81  61  80 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  61  85  60  83 /  10   0  10  20
OCF  61  85  60  84 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/CORDERO/SHULER





000
FXUS62 KJAX 040126
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
826 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS LATER TONIGHT...

...NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY...

.UPDATE...
MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS SET-UP SOUTH OF STATIONARY FRONT WHICH
LIES E-W ACROSS CENTRAL GA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. THE SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FLOW TONIGHT WILL HOLD OFF FOG DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND SEA FOG ALONG THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS WILL
IMPACT MAINLY AREAS NEAR THE COAST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT PUSH
IT AS FAR INLAND AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. EVEN WITH MOIST DEWPOINTS
INTO THE LOWER 60S...EXPECT A COMBINATION OF FOG/STRATUS TO
DEVELOP BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VSBYS MAY NOT BE AS
LOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE WITH LOWER VSBYS IN SEA FOG
ALONG THE SE GA COAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ANY SPECIFIC
AREAS FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO ISSUE ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT
IN TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE MILD AROUND 60 DEGREES.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE MILD START ALONG WITH INCREASING S/SW FLOW TO
15G20-25 MPH WILL JUMP TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR ALL
INLAND LOCATIONS WITH MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. WILL PROBABLY
FALL JUST OF RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN CLIMATE SECTION BELOW BUT NOT
OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY OF REACHING THE 86 DEGREES AT
JAX/AMG LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT
WITH LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG. HRRR SHOWS MOST PROLONGED REDUCED
VSBYS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST FROM JACKSONVILLE BEACH NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WITH VSBYS QUICKLY REDUCING TO A QUARTER
MILE OR LESS FROM NOW UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN. FOG IS EXPECTED
TO MORE INTERMITTENT YET IFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NE FL
TERMINALS WITH KVQQ BEING A LITTLE LOWER DUE TO LOCATION OF
WEATHER SENSOR. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR STARTING MID MORNING
WED WITH RADIATIONAL HEATING AND MIXING OF S-SW WINDS AT 10 KNOTS
AROUND 15Z. KSSI VSBYS MAY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 16Z DUE TO COASTAL
FOG LINGERING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE TO 3-5 FT
OFFSHORE AND WILL SLOWLY INCREASE EVEN MORE TO 15-20 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SCEC HEADLINES LATER IN THE DAY. MAIN
CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS...WILL BE A BATTLE AS S/SE FLOW INCREASES
SLIGHTLY AND MAY END UP BEING A COMBINATION OF SEA FOG AND LOW
STRATUS...AND NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH EASTERLY
SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOOD WAVE CONTINUES TO TRAVEL SLOWLY DOWN ATLAMAHA AND
SATILLA RIVER BASINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MARCH 4TH...
JAX 86/1997...GNV 89/1997...AMG 86/1961...SSI 85/1953

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  83  62  81 /  20   0  10  30
SSI  57  74  59  76 /  10   0  10  30
JAX  61  84  62  84 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  62  81  61  80 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  61  85  60  83 /  10   0  10  20
OCF  61  85  60  84 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/CORDERO/SHULER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 031909
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
209 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE
GIVEN WAY TO SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS TODAY. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MOVING INLAND. HRRR
GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FEW SHOWERS ALONG BOUNDARIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE 20 POP IN AREAS OF SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY
REGION OF NE FL WHERE THAT IS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES WEST OF I-95 CORRIDOR...COVERING
WITH 10 POP FOR NOW.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE WED WITH AREA ON BACK SIDE OF WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THRU TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS
DIGGING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXTENDING FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO NEW ORLEANS WITH A FRONTAL WAVE
OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING UP THE COAST. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE
COAST WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG RIDGE/WEDGE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE AREAS
WITH YET ANOTHER NORTHEASTER SETTING UP ALONG THE COAST. AS WE ARE
COMING OFF OF A FULL MOON WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE COAST FOR
POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. GOING TO BE A COOL AND RAW
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF GULF LOWS BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE IN THE GULF WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ADVECTING
OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND OVERRUNNING RAINFALL
SPREADING OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS
LATER TONIGHT WITH LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG. SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT STARTING MID MORNING WED.

&&

.MARINE...AREA OF FOG HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN NEARSHORE
COMPONENT...AND MAY CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THIS...SO WILL MENTION IN NEARSHORE WATERS FORECAST
THRU TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT/WED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE WATERS. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE NW
THURSDAY...AND MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY THRU THURSDAY
NIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH HIGHER
SEAS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THRU WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO MAJOR CONCERNS WITH RESPECT TO FIRE WEATHER
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION. AREAS OF FOG WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE PATCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  78  61  83  62 /  20  10   0  10
SSI  70  58  71  59 /  20  10   0  10
JAX  78  60  84  62 /  10  10   0  10
SGJ  75  61  78  61 /  10  10   0   0
GNV  81  60  85  60 /  10  10   0  10
OCF  82  61  86  60 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/SANDRIK




000
FXUS62 KJAX 031909
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
209 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE
GIVEN WAY TO SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS TODAY. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MOVING INLAND. HRRR
GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FEW SHOWERS ALONG BOUNDARIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE 20 POP IN AREAS OF SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY
REGION OF NE FL WHERE THAT IS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES WEST OF I-95 CORRIDOR...COVERING
WITH 10 POP FOR NOW.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE WED WITH AREA ON BACK SIDE OF WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...AND AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THRU TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS
DIGGING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXTENDING FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO NEW ORLEANS WITH A FRONTAL WAVE
OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING UP THE COAST. LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE
COAST WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG RIDGE/WEDGE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE AREAS
WITH YET ANOTHER NORTHEASTER SETTING UP ALONG THE COAST. AS WE ARE
COMING OFF OF A FULL MOON WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE COAST FOR
POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. GOING TO BE A COOL AND RAW
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF GULF LOWS BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE IN THE GULF WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ADVECTING
OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND OVERRUNNING RAINFALL
SPREADING OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS
LATER TONIGHT WITH LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG. SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT STARTING MID MORNING WED.

&&

.MARINE...AREA OF FOG HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN NEARSHORE
COMPONENT...AND MAY CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING THIS...SO WILL MENTION IN NEARSHORE WATERS FORECAST
THRU TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT/WED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE WATERS. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE NW
THURSDAY...AND MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY THRU THURSDAY
NIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH HIGHER
SEAS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THRU WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO MAJOR CONCERNS WITH RESPECT TO FIRE WEATHER
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION. AREAS OF FOG WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE PATCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  78  61  83  62 /  20  10   0  10
SSI  70  58  71  59 /  20  10   0  10
JAX  78  60  84  62 /  10  10   0  10
SGJ  75  61  78  61 /  10  10   0   0
GNV  81  60  85  60 /  10  10   0  10
OCF  82  61  86  60 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/SANDRIK




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