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000
FXUS62 KJAX 221814
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
212 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN UPPER LOW TO THE
WEST...AND A SHORT WAVE TO THE EAST. WITH THIS PATTERN CONVECTION
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. CONVECTION
WILL FOCUS INITIALLY NEAR I75 AND I95 CORRIDORS ...THEN SHIFT
FURTHER INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANY STORMS WHICH
DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS...AS FLOW IS LIGHT. THEREFORE...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM AFTERNOON
STORMS. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHICH HAVE SIGNIFICANT RAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WESTERN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH AXIS SOUTH
OF THE REGION AND THIS WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY...BASICALLY NEAR CLIMO POP VALUES OF 30-40%. MAX
TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH
HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 DEGREES EACH DAY. ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
MAKE IT INLD TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR/ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN ON WEDNESDAY
THEN WILL BECOME PINNED ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AS THE W/SW
STEERING FLOW STRENGTHENS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS.

.LONG TERM /FRI-TUE/...THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT TO ACROSS SOUTH CNTL
FL AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL
STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN THE SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN A
PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION DRIVEN BY THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE AND
BEING ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH END SCATTERED POPS EACH DAY WITH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND HIGHEST HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE FOCUSED FOG
POTENTIAL AT KVQQ/KGNV.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY...WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY.
AN INCREASE IN WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED WITH THIS TROUGH...DUE TO
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  95  72  95 /  40  30  30  40
SSI  75  90  77  92 /  20  30  20  20
JAX  74  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  30
SGJ  74  90  76  93 /  20  30  30  30
GNV  71  94  72  94 /  30  30  30  20
OCF  72  94  73  94 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/HESS/NELSON






000
FXUS62 KJAX 221814
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
212 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...

THROUGH TONIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN UPPER LOW TO THE
WEST...AND A SHORT WAVE TO THE EAST. WITH THIS PATTERN CONVECTION
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. CONVECTION
WILL FOCUS INITIALLY NEAR I75 AND I95 CORRIDORS ...THEN SHIFT
FURTHER INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANY STORMS WHICH
DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS...AS FLOW IS LIGHT. THEREFORE...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM AFTERNOON
STORMS. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHICH HAVE SIGNIFICANT RAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WESTERN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH AXIS SOUTH
OF THE REGION AND THIS WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY...BASICALLY NEAR CLIMO POP VALUES OF 30-40%. MAX
TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH
HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 DEGREES EACH DAY. ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
MAKE IT INLD TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR/ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN ON WEDNESDAY
THEN WILL BECOME PINNED ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AS THE W/SW
STEERING FLOW STRENGTHENS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS.

.LONG TERM /FRI-TUE/...THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT TO ACROSS SOUTH CNTL
FL AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL
STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN THE SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN A
PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION DRIVEN BY THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE AND
BEING ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH END SCATTERED POPS EACH DAY WITH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND HIGHEST HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE FOCUSED FOG
POTENTIAL AT KVQQ/KGNV.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY...WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY.
AN INCREASE IN WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED WITH THIS TROUGH...DUE TO
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  95  72  95 /  40  30  30  40
SSI  75  90  77  92 /  20  30  20  20
JAX  74  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  30
SGJ  74  90  76  93 /  20  30  30  30
GNV  71  94  72  94 /  30  30  30  20
OCF  72  94  73  94 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/HESS/NELSON







000
FXUS62 KJAX 221322
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
922 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...

UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE SPINNING OVER WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. EXPECT MOST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SO
CONVECTION INITIATION WILL PRIMARILY BE FROM DIURNAL HEATING AIDED
BY SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. IN THIS PATTERN...EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO INITIATE NEAR I95 AND I75 CORRIDORS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL THEN SHIFT FURTHER INLAND LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS LITTLE
FLOW...SO STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND HAVE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  73  95  73 /  50  40  40  30
SSI  86  76  89  76 /  40  20  40  40
JAX  88  73  92  74 /  50  30  40  40
SGJ  86  74  90  75 /  50  30  50  40
GNV  90  71  93  72 /  70  50  40  30
OCF  90  72  93  73 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE







000
FXUS62 KJAX 221322
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
922 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...

UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE SPINNING OVER WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. EXPECT MOST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SO
CONVECTION INITIATION WILL PRIMARILY BE FROM DIURNAL HEATING AIDED
BY SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. IN THIS PATTERN...EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO INITIATE NEAR I95 AND I75 CORRIDORS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL THEN SHIFT FURTHER INLAND LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS LITTLE
FLOW...SO STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND HAVE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  73  95  73 /  50  40  40  30
SSI  86  76  89  76 /  40  20  40  40
JAX  88  73  92  74 /  50  30  40  40
SGJ  86  74  90  75 /  50  30  50  40
GNV  90  71  93  72 /  70  50  40  30
OCF  90  72  93  73 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE








000
FXUS62 KJAX 220745
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
345 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN SLY FLOW
ALOFT. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE. RADAR SHOWS ONLY
CONVECTION ACTIVITY IS BEYOND OUR WATERS OVER THE GULF STREAM.
HOWEVER HI-RES MODELS SHOW REDEVELOP OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT WITH ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING SHOWERS ASHORE AROUND
SUNRISE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS
WITH A STACKED LOW TO OUR WEST NEAR MOBILE TO NEW ORLEANS...AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GFS SHOWS DRIER AIR SEEPING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY
WHILE THE NAM KEEP PRECIP WATER VALUES HIGH. WITH PWATS REMAINING
NEAR 2 INCHES OR ABOVE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. EVEN THE SMALLER SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS TO BE SUB-SEVERE...BUT WITH FREQUENT INTENSE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL FADE DURING THE EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE TO LOUISIANA WHILE A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. MODELS
INDICATE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE REGION AS A
RESULT...BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PROMOTE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS WITH ACTIVE SEABREEZES.
THE SEABREEZES WILL MERGE WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON SO A FEW STRONG AND LINGERING STORMS POSSIBLE THERE. MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND AND NEAR 90 ALONG THE COAST.
HIGHEST HEAT INDICES SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100.

.LONG TERM (THURS-MON)...THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT TO ACROSS SOUTH CNTL
FL AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL
STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN THE SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN A
PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION DRIVEN BY THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE AND
BEING ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH END SCATTERED POPS EACH DAY WITH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND HIGHEST HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND HAVE VCSH
AT CRG. FREQUENCY OF COASTAL SHRA WILL PICK UP AROUND SUNRISE AND
EAST COAST TERMINALS HAVE VCSH AFTER 13Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTN AND FADE BY SUNSET. WITH ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WILL NOT MENTION TS AFTER
00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LOW IS WEST OF THE WATERS TODAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND A SFC
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE WEEK. LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND
DIRECTION THROUGH WED...WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW LATE NIGHT
BECOMING ONSHORE WITH THE AFTN SEA BREEZE. SOUTH TO SW NOCTURNAL
SURGES ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SCEC
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER OFFSHORE LEGS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED TODAY. RIP CURRENT RISK
LOW TO MODERATE ON WED WITH ESE SWELLS CONTINUING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  73  95  73 /  50  40  40  30
SSI  86  76  89  76 /  40  20  40  40
JAX  88  73  92  74 /  50  30  40  40
SGJ  86  74  90  75 /  50  30  50  40
GNV  90  71  93  72 /  70  50  40  30
OCF  90  72  93  73 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

TRABERT/PETERSON











000
FXUS62 KJAX 220745
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
345 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN SLY FLOW
ALOFT. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE. RADAR SHOWS ONLY
CONVECTION ACTIVITY IS BEYOND OUR WATERS OVER THE GULF STREAM.
HOWEVER HI-RES MODELS SHOW REDEVELOP OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT WITH ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING SHOWERS ASHORE AROUND
SUNRISE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS
WITH A STACKED LOW TO OUR WEST NEAR MOBILE TO NEW ORLEANS...AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
GFS SHOWS DRIER AIR SEEPING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY
WHILE THE NAM KEEP PRECIP WATER VALUES HIGH. WITH PWATS REMAINING
NEAR 2 INCHES OR ABOVE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. EVEN THE SMALLER SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS TO BE SUB-SEVERE...BUT WITH FREQUENT INTENSE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL FADE DURING THE EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE TO LOUISIANA WHILE A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. MODELS
INDICATE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE REGION AS A
RESULT...BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO PROMOTE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS WITH ACTIVE SEABREEZES.
THE SEABREEZES WILL MERGE WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON SO A FEW STRONG AND LINGERING STORMS POSSIBLE THERE. MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND AND NEAR 90 ALONG THE COAST.
HIGHEST HEAT INDICES SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100.

.LONG TERM (THURS-MON)...THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT TO ACROSS SOUTH CNTL
FL AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL
STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN THE SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN A
PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION DRIVEN BY THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE AND
BEING ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH END SCATTERED POPS EACH DAY WITH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND HIGHEST HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND HAVE VCSH
AT CRG. FREQUENCY OF COASTAL SHRA WILL PICK UP AROUND SUNRISE AND
EAST COAST TERMINALS HAVE VCSH AFTER 13Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTN AND FADE BY SUNSET. WITH ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WILL NOT MENTION TS AFTER
00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LOW IS WEST OF THE WATERS TODAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND A SFC
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE WEEK. LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND
DIRECTION THROUGH WED...WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW LATE NIGHT
BECOMING ONSHORE WITH THE AFTN SEA BREEZE. SOUTH TO SW NOCTURNAL
SURGES ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SCEC
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER OFFSHORE LEGS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED TODAY. RIP CURRENT RISK
LOW TO MODERATE ON WED WITH ESE SWELLS CONTINUING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  73  95  73 /  50  40  40  30
SSI  86  76  89  76 /  40  20  40  40
JAX  88  73  92  74 /  50  30  40  40
SGJ  86  74  90  75 /  50  30  50  40
GNV  90  71  93  72 /  70  50  40  30
OCF  90  72  93  73 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

TRABERT/PETERSON










000
FXUS62 KJAX 220023
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
823 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014


.UPDATE...EVENING CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG CONVERGENCE LINE
OVER SE ZONES INTO THE ATLANTIC FORMED BY SEABREEZE AND
OUTFLOWS. LATEST HRR MODEL SHOWS CONVECTION DECREASING AROUND
MIDNIGHT OVER LAND AND CURRENT POPS SHOWS THIS TREND. UPPER TROUGH
STARTS TO RETROGRADE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS AS
SEABREEZES COUPLED WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT
SSI TIL AROUND 02Z DUE TO LINGERING RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG AT VQQ
AND GNV WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE 07Z-11Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE VARIABLE DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS...WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. CONVECTION MAY LINGER PAST
MIDNIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  91  71  95 /  20  50  50  40
SSI  75  88  76  89 /  30  50  30  40
JAX  73  91  73  92 /  20  50  40  40
SGJ  74  88  75  90 /  50  40  40  40
GNV  71  92  71  93 /  20  60  50  40
OCF  72  92  72  93 /  50  60  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/ENYEDI/MCALLISTER







000
FXUS62 KJAX 220023
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
823 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014


.UPDATE...EVENING CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG CONVERGENCE LINE
OVER SE ZONES INTO THE ATLANTIC FORMED BY SEABREEZE AND
OUTFLOWS. LATEST HRR MODEL SHOWS CONVECTION DECREASING AROUND
MIDNIGHT OVER LAND AND CURRENT POPS SHOWS THIS TREND. UPPER TROUGH
STARTS TO RETROGRADE ON TUESDAY. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS AS
SEABREEZES COUPLED WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT
SSI TIL AROUND 02Z DUE TO LINGERING RAIN...AND PATCHY FOG AT VQQ
AND GNV WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE 07Z-11Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE VARIABLE DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS...WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. CONVECTION MAY LINGER PAST
MIDNIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  91  71  95 /  20  50  50  40
SSI  75  88  76  89 /  30  50  30  40
JAX  73  91  73  92 /  20  50  40  40
SGJ  74  88  75  90 /  50  40  40  40
GNV  71  92  71  93 /  20  60  50  40
OCF  72  92  72  93 /  50  60  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/ENYEDI/MCALLISTER








000
FXUS62 KJAX 211901
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
255 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW HAS SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT AND
LIMITED EXTENT OF CONVECTION THUS FAR TODAY. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
ERODING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE REGION TO
DESTABILIZE SOMEWHAT. SO STILL EXPECTING STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT
HAVE TRENDED DOWN THE COVERAGE INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE WARM ATLANTIC WATERS...AND OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO SPINNING UPPER LOW. ELSEWHERE...LACK
OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...
TUE THROUGH WED...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
SYSTEMS...MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST CENTERED NEAR 30N75W AND DEEP
LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST NEAR MOBILE AL. THE
DEEP LAYER LOW PRES WILL RETROGRADE TO SRN LA. A WEAK SFC TROUGH
WILL BE LOCATED OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUE AND SLOWLY DRIFT
NW INTO WED BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE
MOISTURE LEVELS WITH JUST A SLIGHT DROP IN PWAT COMPARED TO
TODAY...WHICH WHEN TAKING INTO ACCOUNT RETROGRADING LOW PRES AND
LESS FORCING ALOFT SUGGESTS A LOWERING OF GENERAL POP FCST.
INDICATED 40-50% CHANCES ON TUE WITH MERGING OF BOTH SEA BREEZES
INLAND AREAS OF NE FL TUE AFTN/EVENING. LINGERING SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TUE NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT. BY WED...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE AREA TAKES ON MORE AFFECT OF GENERAL WX
PATTERN WITH SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE. WEAK SFC
PRES PATTERN WILL STILL PROMOTE ACTIVE SEA BREEZES PUSHING INLAND
DURING THE AFTN. GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AND
ACTIVE SEA BREEZES WE HAVE POPS NEAR OR ABOVE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
ONCE AGAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WED EVENING...ESPECIALLY ERN
ZONES GIVEN SLIGHTLY MORE VEERED FLOW FROM THE SW. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT INDICES MAY BE NEAR 105 ON
WED.

THURSDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE REA SHIFTS ESE WHILE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SRN MS SHIFTS E TO
SE. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRENGTHENED SWLY FLOW AND HELP IMPART SOME
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE POPS DOWN TO THE 20-40% RANGE...HIGHEST
CHANCES OVER THE S AND SE ZONES...MAINLY AFTN CONVECTION EXPECTED.
MAIN DRIVER OF CONVECTION DAYTIME HEATING AND TYPICAL SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES TOPPING OUT NEAR 105.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...GENERAL WX PATTERN WILL BE A
LOW LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS S CENTRAL FL AREA WITH MEAN DEEP LAYER FLOW
FROM THE SW...AND WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CAROLINAS TO SRN AL.
BASED ON LATEST GFS GUIDANCE MOISTURE LEVELS APPEAR TO BE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR LATE JULY...ABOUT 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES. A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
EXPECTED. BROAD/WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS GA AND THE
CAROLINAS AND WITH POSSIBILITY OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH COULD SUPPORT ISOLD STRONG SEVERE AFTN/EVENING STORMS DURING
THIS TIME. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING OR LOCATION THIS FAR
OUT...WILL KEEP POPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WITH STORMS DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIGHT
FOG AT KVQQ/KGNV. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

AN UPPER LOW WILL BE WEST OF AREA WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. THESE
SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR STORMS.ENHANCED WINDS
EXPECTED LATE WED THROUGH FRI FROM THE SW DUE TO APPROACH OF SFC
TROUGHING SETTING UP FROM THE CAROLINAS TO SRN AL.

RIP CURRENTS: UPGRADED RISK TO MODERATE BASED ON SURF CONDITIONS AND
RESCUES. RIP CURRENT RISK LOW TO MODERATE ON TUE WITH ESE SWELLS
CONTINUING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  91  71  95 /  40  50  50  40
SSI  75  88  76  89 /  40  50  30  40
JAX  73  91  73  92 /  40  50  40  40
SGJ  74  88  75  90 /  40  40  40  40
GNV  71  92  71  93 /  40  60  50  40
OCF  72  92  72  93 /  40  60  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHASHY







000
FXUS62 KJAX 211901
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
255 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW HAS SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT AND
LIMITED EXTENT OF CONVECTION THUS FAR TODAY. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
ERODING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE REGION TO
DESTABILIZE SOMEWHAT. SO STILL EXPECTING STORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT
HAVE TRENDED DOWN THE COVERAGE INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE WARM ATLANTIC WATERS...AND OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO SPINNING UPPER LOW. ELSEWHERE...LACK
OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...
TUE THROUGH WED...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
SYSTEMS...MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST CENTERED NEAR 30N75W AND DEEP
LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST NEAR MOBILE AL. THE
DEEP LAYER LOW PRES WILL RETROGRADE TO SRN LA. A WEAK SFC TROUGH
WILL BE LOCATED OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUE AND SLOWLY DRIFT
NW INTO WED BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE
MOISTURE LEVELS WITH JUST A SLIGHT DROP IN PWAT COMPARED TO
TODAY...WHICH WHEN TAKING INTO ACCOUNT RETROGRADING LOW PRES AND
LESS FORCING ALOFT SUGGESTS A LOWERING OF GENERAL POP FCST.
INDICATED 40-50% CHANCES ON TUE WITH MERGING OF BOTH SEA BREEZES
INLAND AREAS OF NE FL TUE AFTN/EVENING. LINGERING SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TUE NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT. BY WED...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE AREA TAKES ON MORE AFFECT OF GENERAL WX
PATTERN WITH SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE. WEAK SFC
PRES PATTERN WILL STILL PROMOTE ACTIVE SEA BREEZES PUSHING INLAND
DURING THE AFTN. GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AND
ACTIVE SEA BREEZES WE HAVE POPS NEAR OR ABOVE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
ONCE AGAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WED EVENING...ESPECIALLY ERN
ZONES GIVEN SLIGHTLY MORE VEERED FLOW FROM THE SW. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT INDICES MAY BE NEAR 105 ON
WED.

THURSDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE REA SHIFTS ESE WHILE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SRN MS SHIFTS E TO
SE. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRENGTHENED SWLY FLOW AND HELP IMPART SOME
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE POPS DOWN TO THE 20-40% RANGE...HIGHEST
CHANCES OVER THE S AND SE ZONES...MAINLY AFTN CONVECTION EXPECTED.
MAIN DRIVER OF CONVECTION DAYTIME HEATING AND TYPICAL SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES TOPPING OUT NEAR 105.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...GENERAL WX PATTERN WILL BE A
LOW LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS S CENTRAL FL AREA WITH MEAN DEEP LAYER FLOW
FROM THE SW...AND WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CAROLINAS TO SRN AL.
BASED ON LATEST GFS GUIDANCE MOISTURE LEVELS APPEAR TO BE NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR LATE JULY...ABOUT 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES. A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
EXPECTED. BROAD/WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS GA AND THE
CAROLINAS AND WITH POSSIBILITY OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH COULD SUPPORT ISOLD STRONG SEVERE AFTN/EVENING STORMS DURING
THIS TIME. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING OR LOCATION THIS FAR
OUT...WILL KEEP POPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WITH STORMS DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIGHT
FOG AT KVQQ/KGNV. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

AN UPPER LOW WILL BE WEST OF AREA WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. THESE
SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR STORMS.ENHANCED WINDS
EXPECTED LATE WED THROUGH FRI FROM THE SW DUE TO APPROACH OF SFC
TROUGHING SETTING UP FROM THE CAROLINAS TO SRN AL.

RIP CURRENTS: UPGRADED RISK TO MODERATE BASED ON SURF CONDITIONS AND
RESCUES. RIP CURRENT RISK LOW TO MODERATE ON TUE WITH ESE SWELLS
CONTINUING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  91  71  95 /  40  50  50  40
SSI  75  88  76  89 /  40  50  30  40
JAX  73  91  73  92 /  40  50  40  40
SGJ  74  88  75  90 /  40  40  40  40
GNV  71  92  71  93 /  40  60  50  40
OCF  72  92  72  93 /  40  60  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHASHY






000
FXUS62 KJAX 211317
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
917 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...

UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW
MAY BECOME SEVERE. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS...SO PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR STORMS. PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  71  92  71 /  70  50  50  50
SSI  86  76  88  77 /  70  40  50  30
JAX  88  73  91  73 /  70  30  50  40
SGJ  86  74  88  75 /  70  30  40  40
GNV  87  71  91  71 /  60  30  60  50
OCF  88  71  92  72 /  70  30  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE







000
FXUS62 KJAX 210838
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
438 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

...NUMEROUS STORMS TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...

.SHORT TERM...
THE STAGE IS SEEMINGLY SET FOR AN ACTIVE DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS. A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND WE
WILL FIND OURSELVES ON THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE EAST SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM TODAY. STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND
THIS LOW AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. EVEN WITH THE OVERWHELMING
SUPPORT FOR AN ACTIVE DAY...FOR SOME STRANGE REASON THE LATEST GFS
HAS BACKED OFF ON POPS AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE IF ANY QPF IN OUR
AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS DONE A DECENT JOB THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...WE WILL DISCOUNT ITS MORE OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK AND WE
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS OF 70% AREA-WIDE.

ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY EARLY START
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND THEN SPREAD EAST AND CULMINATE ALONG
AND NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MAY ALSO PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT WHICH COULD
RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE GA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STORM MOTION ACROSS THAT REGION MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE GA
BEFORE MOSTLY WRAPPING UP BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

TUE/TUE NIGHT...THE STACKED LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST ALONG THE
GULF COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE ATLC. REMNANT UPPER
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NWD OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND NWD FROM A LOW OVER S FL INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THUS THE UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND
CONTINING INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE FADING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
BEST RAIN CHANCES (60%) WILL BE OVER CENTRAL FL. ACTIVITY WILL
THEN FOCUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SCTD STORMS OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER RIDGE BIILDS ACROSS
THE REGION ON WED WHILE AT THE SURFACE...WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
RIDGE OVER S FL AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS
PATTERN WILL PROMOTE ACTIVE SEA BREEZES AND WITH A S-SW STEERING
FLOW...SBRZ COLLISION WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR LATE AFTN.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT THURSDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND EXTREME S FL AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. AS THE TROUGH
ARRIVES TO THE EAST COAST BY THE WEEKEND...DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT ESPECIALLY BY
SUN/MON. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING OR LOCATION THIS FAR
OUT...WILL KEEP POPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS STORMS TODAY WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF POOR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TERMINALS ALONG AND NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO GO AHEAD AND SHOW A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS IN TSRA AT THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MOST TERMINALS SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY EVENING AS CONVECTION WINDS DOWN.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND
DIRECTION THE NEXT FEW DAYS (LIGHT AND WESTERLY IN THE MORNING
BEFORE BECOMING ONSHORE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND THEN
FINALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE EVENING). SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE
SOUTHERLY NOCTURNAL SURGES INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY MORE
WIDESPREAD TODAY. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL 4
FOOTERS EXPECTED WELL OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY DUE TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND
RELATIVELY WEAK SWELL ACTION OF ABOUT 2 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  71  92  71 /  70  60  50  50
SSI  86  76  88  77 /  70  50  50  30
JAX  88  73  91  73 /  70  30  50  40
SGJ  86  74  88  75 /  70  30  40  40
GNV  87  71  91  71 /  70  20  60  50
OCF  88  71  92  72 /  70  20  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

JDS/MKT






000
FXUS62 KJAX 210838
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
438 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

...NUMEROUS STORMS TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...

.SHORT TERM...
THE STAGE IS SEEMINGLY SET FOR AN ACTIVE DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS. A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND WE
WILL FIND OURSELVES ON THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE EAST SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM TODAY. STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND
THIS LOW AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. EVEN WITH THE OVERWHELMING
SUPPORT FOR AN ACTIVE DAY...FOR SOME STRANGE REASON THE LATEST GFS
HAS BACKED OFF ON POPS AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE IF ANY QPF IN OUR
AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS DONE A DECENT JOB THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...WE WILL DISCOUNT ITS MORE OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK AND WE
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS OF 70% AREA-WIDE.

ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GET OFF TO A RELATIVELY EARLY START
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND THEN SPREAD EAST AND CULMINATE ALONG
AND NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MAY ALSO PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT WHICH COULD
RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE GA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STORM MOTION ACROSS THAT REGION MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THIS EVENING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE GA
BEFORE MOSTLY WRAPPING UP BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

TUE/TUE NIGHT...THE STACKED LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST ALONG THE
GULF COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE ATLC. REMNANT UPPER
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NWD OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND NWD FROM A LOW OVER S FL INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THUS THE UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND
CONTINING INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE FADING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
BEST RAIN CHANCES (60%) WILL BE OVER CENTRAL FL. ACTIVITY WILL
THEN FOCUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SCTD STORMS OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER RIDGE BIILDS ACROSS
THE REGION ON WED WHILE AT THE SURFACE...WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN A
RIDGE OVER S FL AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS
PATTERN WILL PROMOTE ACTIVE SEA BREEZES AND WITH A S-SW STEERING
FLOW...SBRZ COLLISION WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR LATE AFTN.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT THURSDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND EXTREME S FL AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. AS THE TROUGH
ARRIVES TO THE EAST COAST BY THE WEEKEND...DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT ESPECIALLY BY
SUN/MON. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING OR LOCATION THIS FAR
OUT...WILL KEEP POPS NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS STORMS TODAY WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF POOR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TERMINALS ALONG AND NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO GO AHEAD AND SHOW A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS IN TSRA AT THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MOST TERMINALS SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY EVENING AS CONVECTION WINDS DOWN.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND
DIRECTION THE NEXT FEW DAYS (LIGHT AND WESTERLY IN THE MORNING
BEFORE BECOMING ONSHORE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND THEN
FINALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE EVENING). SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE
SOUTHERLY NOCTURNAL SURGES INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY MORE
WIDESPREAD TODAY. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL 4
FOOTERS EXPECTED WELL OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY DUE TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND
RELATIVELY WEAK SWELL ACTION OF ABOUT 2 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  71  92  71 /  70  60  50  50
SSI  86  76  88  77 /  70  50  50  30
JAX  88  73  91  73 /  70  30  50  40
SGJ  86  74  88  75 /  70  30  40  40
GNV  87  71  91  71 /  70  20  60  50
OCF  88  71  92  72 /  70  20  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

JDS/MKT





000
FXUS62 KJAX 210131
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
931 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

...EXTREMELY HUMID WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES THE REST OF THE NIGHT...

.UPDATE...AROUND 9 PM THE JAX ASOS REPORTED A TEMP OF 80 DEG WITH
A 78 DEW PT. DESPITE EVENING CONVECTION...WARM UPPER LEVELS WITH
500 MB TEMPS NEAR -6 DEG C DID NOT SUPPORT OVERLY COOL DOWNDRAFTS.
AFTER PRECIP DISSIPATES OVER FLAGLER...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNRISE FOR MOST AREAS WITH MEAN TROUGHING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA. BEST CHANCES OF AN EARLY MORNING TSTORM
WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF I-75 SOUTH OF LIVE OAK OVER THE SUWANNEE
RIVER VALLEY WHERE WSW STEERING FLOW WILL BRING GULF ACTIVITY
INLAND. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO NEAR
80/UPPER 70S ALONG THE ST JOHNS BASIN AND COAST. MOSTLY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH MID AND HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS ONCE
AGAIN PRECLUDING SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION...BUT PATCHY FOG WILL
BE LIKELY WHERE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL FELL ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ST
JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND ATLANTIC COAST OVER NE FL.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIALING VFR TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR VQQ WHERE
PERSISTENCE SUPPORTS MVFR VSBYS AROUND 07Z WITH TEMPO IFR THROUGH
SUNRISE POSSIBLE. AFTER DAYBREAK...BEST CHANCE OF MORNING TSRA AT
GNV BY 15Z...WITH ACTIVITY APPROACHING OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE
MID-LATE AFTN. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...S WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY. LOW RISK LIKELY MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  89  72  92 /  20  70  50  60
SSI  76  84  75  85 /  50  60  60  40
JAX  74  88  73  90 /  30  70  60  50
SGJ  75  86  74  87 /  50  60  60  40
GNV  72  88  71  90 /  30  70  50  50
OCF  73  89  72  90 /  30  70  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/ZIBURA/WALKER







000
FXUS62 KJAX 210131
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
931 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

...EXTREMELY HUMID WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES THE REST OF THE NIGHT...

.UPDATE...AROUND 9 PM THE JAX ASOS REPORTED A TEMP OF 80 DEG WITH
A 78 DEW PT. DESPITE EVENING CONVECTION...WARM UPPER LEVELS WITH
500 MB TEMPS NEAR -6 DEG C DID NOT SUPPORT OVERLY COOL DOWNDRAFTS.
AFTER PRECIP DISSIPATES OVER FLAGLER...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNRISE FOR MOST AREAS WITH MEAN TROUGHING
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA. BEST CHANCES OF AN EARLY MORNING TSTORM
WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF I-75 SOUTH OF LIVE OAK OVER THE SUWANNEE
RIVER VALLEY WHERE WSW STEERING FLOW WILL BRING GULF ACTIVITY
INLAND. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO NEAR
80/UPPER 70S ALONG THE ST JOHNS BASIN AND COAST. MOSTLY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH MID AND HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS ONCE
AGAIN PRECLUDING SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION...BUT PATCHY FOG WILL
BE LIKELY WHERE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL FELL ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ST
JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND ATLANTIC COAST OVER NE FL.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVIALING VFR TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR VQQ WHERE
PERSISTENCE SUPPORTS MVFR VSBYS AROUND 07Z WITH TEMPO IFR THROUGH
SUNRISE POSSIBLE. AFTER DAYBREAK...BEST CHANCE OF MORNING TSRA AT
GNV BY 15Z...WITH ACTIVITY APPROACHING OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE
MID-LATE AFTN. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...S WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY. LOW RISK LIKELY MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  89  72  92 /  20  70  50  60
SSI  76  84  75  85 /  50  60  60  40
JAX  74  88  73  90 /  30  70  60  50
SGJ  75  86  74  87 /  50  60  60  40
GNV  72  88  71  90 /  30  70  50  50
OCF  73  89  72  90 /  30  70  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/ZIBURA/WALKER








000
FXUS62 KJAX 201846
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS REST OF TODAY...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

.REST OF THE AFTN AND TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ONGOING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MOVING E TO SE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. LATEST
ANALYSIS SHOWS SW TO W FLOW AROUND 5-10 MPH WITH OCNL SPEED
INCREASES BUT NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ATLC SEA BREEZE AT BAY...AS
RECENT RADAR SHOWS THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY
MOVING W ABOUT 5 MPH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO INITIATE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE WE CONTINUED WITH 40-60%
POP FCST THROUGH ABOUT 6 TO 7 PM THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY VALUES
SHOW CAPE 2500-3000 J/KG AND DOWNDRAFT (DCAPE) UP TO 700 K/JG. SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING THIS EVENING TIL NEAR MIDNIGHT
BUT BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WILL TRIM POPS A BIT TO DECREASE TO
15-20% MIDNIGHT TO TOWARD EARLY MORNING HRS. MODELS SUGGEST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ENE THROUGH THE REGION AND MAY HELP BOOST
RAIN CHANCES AGAIN IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME SO SLOWLY INCREASED
POPS TO ABOUT 30% BY SUNRISE. INSTABILITY IS WEAK SO MENTIONED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
MONDAY.  THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE MOIST AIRMASS PRODUCING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN. IN THIS
SCENARIO...EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION AIDED BY SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS.

WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL ON MONDAY...HAVE TRIMMED
BACK MAX TEMPS...GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RECOVER BACK TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEAK RIDGING WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WITH THIS
PATTERN...MAINLY  DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE ENHANCED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF SHOWS A DEEPER TROUGH PATTERN THAN
GFS AT THIS TIME. A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER REGION COULD LEAD TO
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...IF NEXT WEEKENDS TROUGH IS AS STRONG AS ECMWF IS
DEPICTING COULD BE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND...LEADING TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTN. BRIEF IFR AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. HAVE CARRIED TEMPO GROUPS FOR MOST OF THE TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTION CHANCES AFTER
00Z. STORM MOTION GENERALLY E AT 10-15 KT. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AND PLENTY OF AIRMASS MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY MON MORNING
WILL PROBABLY LEAVE IN VICINITY SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE FOR LATE TONIGHT...VERY PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH MVFR VSBY
BUT LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND WILL CARRY FOR VQQ ONLY FOR NOW. SOME
CHANCE ALSO OF LOW STRATUS AROUND LOW CLOUDS 500-1500 FT MON MORNING
BUT POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE RESTRICTIONS ATTM SO WILL PROBABLY
JUST SHOW A SCATTERED DECK.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS
IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED (WESTERLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
ONSHORE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND THEN FINALLY BECOMING
SOUTHERLY IN THE EVENING). SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KNOTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE SOUTHERLY
NOCTURNAL SURGES INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE DURING THE
LAST PART OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD OF
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY
ONWARD. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL 4 FOOTERS
EXPECTED WELL OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK DUE TO THE INCOMING SWELLS TODAY...AND
SIMILAR CONDS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  89  72  92 /  50  70  50  60
SSI  76  84  75  85 /  50  60  40  40
JAX  74  88  73  90 /  50  70  50  50
SGJ  75  86  74  87 /  40  60  50  40
GNV  72  88  71  90 /  30  70  50  50
OCF  73  89  72  90 /  30  70  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/STRUBLE/WALKER






000
FXUS62 KJAX 201846
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS REST OF TODAY...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

.REST OF THE AFTN AND TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ONGOING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MOVING E TO SE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. LATEST
ANALYSIS SHOWS SW TO W FLOW AROUND 5-10 MPH WITH OCNL SPEED
INCREASES BUT NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ATLC SEA BREEZE AT BAY...AS
RECENT RADAR SHOWS THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY
MOVING W ABOUT 5 MPH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO INITIATE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE WE CONTINUED WITH 40-60%
POP FCST THROUGH ABOUT 6 TO 7 PM THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY VALUES
SHOW CAPE 2500-3000 J/KG AND DOWNDRAFT (DCAPE) UP TO 700 K/JG. SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING THIS EVENING TIL NEAR MIDNIGHT
BUT BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WILL TRIM POPS A BIT TO DECREASE TO
15-20% MIDNIGHT TO TOWARD EARLY MORNING HRS. MODELS SUGGEST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ENE THROUGH THE REGION AND MAY HELP BOOST
RAIN CHANCES AGAIN IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME SO SLOWLY INCREASED
POPS TO ABOUT 30% BY SUNRISE. INSTABILITY IS WEAK SO MENTIONED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
MONDAY.  THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE MOIST AIRMASS PRODUCING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN. IN THIS
SCENARIO...EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION AIDED BY SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS.

WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL ON MONDAY...HAVE TRIMMED
BACK MAX TEMPS...GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RECOVER BACK TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEAK RIDGING WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WITH THIS
PATTERN...MAINLY  DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE ENHANCED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF SHOWS A DEEPER TROUGH PATTERN THAN
GFS AT THIS TIME. A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER REGION COULD LEAD TO
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...IF NEXT WEEKENDS TROUGH IS AS STRONG AS ECMWF IS
DEPICTING COULD BE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND...LEADING TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTN. BRIEF IFR AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. HAVE CARRIED TEMPO GROUPS FOR MOST OF THE TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTION CHANCES AFTER
00Z. STORM MOTION GENERALLY E AT 10-15 KT. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AND PLENTY OF AIRMASS MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY MON MORNING
WILL PROBABLY LEAVE IN VICINITY SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE FOR LATE TONIGHT...VERY PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH MVFR VSBY
BUT LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND WILL CARRY FOR VQQ ONLY FOR NOW. SOME
CHANCE ALSO OF LOW STRATUS AROUND LOW CLOUDS 500-1500 FT MON MORNING
BUT POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE RESTRICTIONS ATTM SO WILL PROBABLY
JUST SHOW A SCATTERED DECK.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS
IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED (WESTERLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
ONSHORE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND THEN FINALLY BECOMING
SOUTHERLY IN THE EVENING). SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KNOTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE SOUTHERLY
NOCTURNAL SURGES INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE DURING THE
LAST PART OF THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD OF
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY
ONWARD. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL 4 FOOTERS
EXPECTED WELL OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK DUE TO THE INCOMING SWELLS TODAY...AND
SIMILAR CONDS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  89  72  92 /  50  70  50  60
SSI  76  84  75  85 /  50  60  40  40
JAX  74  88  73  90 /  50  70  50  50
SGJ  75  86  74  87 /  40  60  50  40
GNV  72  88  71  90 /  30  70  50  50
OCF  73  89  72  90 /  30  70  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/STRUBLE/WALKER







000
FXUS62 KJAX 201323
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTN AND EVENING...

.UPDATE...BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE SE CONUS WITH
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE OVER THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO AND GULF COAST W OF APALACHICOLA ASSOCD WITH DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN LAYER TROUGH.

ACROSS OUR REGION...MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ATTM WITH SOME ISOLD
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ASSOCD WITH WEAK LAND BREEZE
BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD NE AND
WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING. SFC RIDGE IS WELL S OF THE AREA WITH WEAK
S-SW FLOW OVER LAND WITH PATCHY LIGHT GROUND FOG THAT WILL BURN OFF
RAPIDLY. NO DISTURBANCES TO BE NOTED OVER THE AREA AT 13Z...AND WITH
PLENTY OF SUN...TEMPS WILL RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH HIGHS FCST IN
THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY MOVE INTO
THE AREA BY LATE AFTN AND EVENING IN THE WRN ZONES. CAM MODELS SHOW
MAINLY JUST ISOLD CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTN WITH SCT TO POSSIBLY
NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN. STORM MOTION WILL
BE EAST AROUND 10 MPH. SOMEWHAT CONCERNING ATTM IS A LINE OF
CONVECTION FROM JUST W OF APALACHICOLA SW TO OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS...MOVING E AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD ARRIVE AROUND
17Z-19Z (1PM-3PM) IN OUR WRN ZONES. MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE IN
ANY TRAINING CELLS. MAIN CHANGES IN THE FCST WAS TO DELAY RAIN
CHANCES A BIT INTO THE AFTN HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT FCST INDICATES CONVECTION BEGINNING AROUND 16Z
AT GNV AND A FEW HOURS LATER (AFT 19Z) FOR THE COASTAL TAFS. THIS IS
IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND DON`T SEE ANY REASON TO
DEVIATE FROM THIS ATTM. IFR CONDS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN STRONG
TSTMS ACTIVITY. ONLY SHORT TERM AMENDMENT POSSIBLE FOR THE TAFS MIGHT
BE FOR GNV FOR A SHORT TEMPO GROUP AROUND 17Z-19Z FOR TSTMS BUT TOO
SOON TO ADJUST ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE S-SW AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT. SLIGHT ESE
SWELLS NEAR 2 FT WITH PERIODS OF 8 SECONDS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE S
AND SE IN THE AFTN. MAINLY ISOLD CONVECTION OFFSHORE WILL BECOME SCT
BY LATE AFTN.

RIP CURRENTS: BASED ON SURF SIZE AND AREA LIFEGUARD REPORTS...WILL
RAISE THE RISK TO MODERATE RISK DUE TO THE INCOMING SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  72  89  72 /  60  50  70  60
SSI  89  76  85  76 /  60  40  70  60
JAX  91  73  89  74 /  60  40  70  70
SGJ  90  74  86  75 /  50  30  60  60
GNV  92  71  88  72 /  50  30  70  60
OCF  92  71  88  72 /  50  30  70  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/MCALLISTER/WALSH






000
FXUS62 KJAX 201323
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTN AND EVENING...

.UPDATE...BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE SE CONUS WITH
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE OVER THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO AND GULF COAST W OF APALACHICOLA ASSOCD WITH DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN LAYER TROUGH.

ACROSS OUR REGION...MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ATTM WITH SOME ISOLD
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ASSOCD WITH WEAK LAND BREEZE
BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD NE AND
WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING. SFC RIDGE IS WELL S OF THE AREA WITH WEAK
S-SW FLOW OVER LAND WITH PATCHY LIGHT GROUND FOG THAT WILL BURN OFF
RAPIDLY. NO DISTURBANCES TO BE NOTED OVER THE AREA AT 13Z...AND WITH
PLENTY OF SUN...TEMPS WILL RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH HIGHS FCST IN
THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY MOVE INTO
THE AREA BY LATE AFTN AND EVENING IN THE WRN ZONES. CAM MODELS SHOW
MAINLY JUST ISOLD CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTN WITH SCT TO POSSIBLY
NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN. STORM MOTION WILL
BE EAST AROUND 10 MPH. SOMEWHAT CONCERNING ATTM IS A LINE OF
CONVECTION FROM JUST W OF APALACHICOLA SW TO OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS...MOVING E AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD ARRIVE AROUND
17Z-19Z (1PM-3PM) IN OUR WRN ZONES. MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE IN
ANY TRAINING CELLS. MAIN CHANGES IN THE FCST WAS TO DELAY RAIN
CHANCES A BIT INTO THE AFTN HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT FCST INDICATES CONVECTION BEGINNING AROUND 16Z
AT GNV AND A FEW HOURS LATER (AFT 19Z) FOR THE COASTAL TAFS. THIS IS
IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND DON`T SEE ANY REASON TO
DEVIATE FROM THIS ATTM. IFR CONDS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN STRONG
TSTMS ACTIVITY. ONLY SHORT TERM AMENDMENT POSSIBLE FOR THE TAFS MIGHT
BE FOR GNV FOR A SHORT TEMPO GROUP AROUND 17Z-19Z FOR TSTMS BUT TOO
SOON TO ADJUST ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE S-SW AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT. SLIGHT ESE
SWELLS NEAR 2 FT WITH PERIODS OF 8 SECONDS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE S
AND SE IN THE AFTN. MAINLY ISOLD CONVECTION OFFSHORE WILL BECOME SCT
BY LATE AFTN.

RIP CURRENTS: BASED ON SURF SIZE AND AREA LIFEGUARD REPORTS...WILL
RAISE THE RISK TO MODERATE RISK DUE TO THE INCOMING SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  72  89  72 /  60  50  70  60
SSI  89  76  85  76 /  60  40  70  60
JAX  91  73  89  74 /  60  40  70  70
SGJ  90  74  86  75 /  50  30  60  60
GNV  92  71  88  72 /  50  30  70  60
OCF  92  71  88  72 /  50  30  70  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/MCALLISTER/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KJAX 200843
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
443 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
 A FEW EXTRA PEEKS OF SUN TODAY WILL ALLOW MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
ALMA GA TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE EXTRA INSTABILITY COUPLED
WITH INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT WILL LEAD TO MORE COVERAGE OF STORMS
TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE
GENERAL THINKING IS THAT AN EASTWARD MOVING LINE OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS WILL REACH OUR WESTERN ZONES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY AND THEN SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR EASTERN ZONES MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG A VERY SLOW MOVING
ATLANTIC COAST SEABREEZE NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. STORMS WILL THEN
PUSH OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. STRONG GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

FOR THIS EVENING...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION THOUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

MON AND MON NIGHT...A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE SERN
U.S. ON MON. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES. A COUPLE SHORT
WAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS NE FL AND SE GA ON MON AFTERNOON INTO THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS OF TUES. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS. WILL CAP POPS AT 70% FOR
NOW BUT MAY BE UPGRADED TO CATEGORICAL POPS LATER. CLOUDS AND RAIN
WILL SUPPRESS MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TUE-WED...THE CUTOFF LOW WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF
COAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH A MEAN LAYER RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE FL PENINSULA FROM THE ATLANTIC. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SLY BY TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CONVERGING SEA BREEZE REGIME OVER
N-CENTRAL FL. SCTD TO NUMEROUS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

THU-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE OVER FL PENINSULA WILL RETREAT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PWATS
WILL DROP OFF AND RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.85 INCHES. ISOLATED TO SCTD
DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE INCREASES OVER SE GA BY
THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH REACHES THE EAST COAST...HOWEVER MODELS
NOW SHOW THE ACCOMPANYING SFC FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT
THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. POPS ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED NEAR
THE GNV TAF SITE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS EXPECTED MAINLY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES. WILL CARRY VCTS FOR NOW BUT AMENDMENTS TO INCLUDE TSRA
GROUPS LOOK LIKE A FAIR BET AS THE DAY UNFOLDS AND TIMING AND
SPECIFIC IMPACTS BECOME MORE CLEAR. ANY STORM IMPACTS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY BRIEF AT THE TAF SITES...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND
DIRECTION (WESTERLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING ONSHORE WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND THEN FINALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE
EVENING). SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE SOUTHERLY NOCTURNAL SURGES
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE DURING THE LAST PART OF THE
WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY ONWARD. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL 4 FOOTERS EXPECTED WELL
OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO LIGHTER ONSHORE FLOW
AND RELATIVELY WEAK SWELL ACTION OF ABOUT 2 FEET AT ROUGHLY 6 TO 8
SECONDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  72  89  72 /  60  50  70  60
SSI  89  76  85  76 /  60  40  70  60
JAX  91  73  89  74 /  60  40  70  70
SGJ  90  74  86  75 /  50  30  60  60
GNV  92  71  88  72 /  50  30  70  60
OCF  92  71  88  72 /  50  30  70  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/TRABERT





000
FXUS62 KJAX 200843
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
443 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
 A FEW EXTRA PEEKS OF SUN TODAY WILL ALLOW MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
ALMA GA TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE EXTRA INSTABILITY COUPLED
WITH INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT WILL LEAD TO MORE COVERAGE OF STORMS
TODAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE
GENERAL THINKING IS THAT AN EASTWARD MOVING LINE OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS WILL REACH OUR WESTERN ZONES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY AND THEN SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR EASTERN ZONES MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG A VERY SLOW MOVING
ATLANTIC COAST SEABREEZE NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. STORMS WILL THEN
PUSH OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. STRONG GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

FOR THIS EVENING...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION THOUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

MON AND MON NIGHT...A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE SERN
U.S. ON MON. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES. A COUPLE SHORT
WAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS NE FL AND SE GA ON MON AFTERNOON INTO THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS OF TUES. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS. WILL CAP POPS AT 70% FOR
NOW BUT MAY BE UPGRADED TO CATEGORICAL POPS LATER. CLOUDS AND RAIN
WILL SUPPRESS MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

TUE-WED...THE CUTOFF LOW WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF
COAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH A MEAN LAYER RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE FL PENINSULA FROM THE ATLANTIC. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SLY BY TUE NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CONVERGING SEA BREEZE REGIME OVER
N-CENTRAL FL. SCTD TO NUMEROUS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

THU-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE OVER FL PENINSULA WILL RETREAT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PWATS
WILL DROP OFF AND RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.85 INCHES. ISOLATED TO SCTD
DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE INCREASES OVER SE GA BY
THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH REACHES THE EAST COAST...HOWEVER MODELS
NOW SHOW THE ACCOMPANYING SFC FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT
THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. POPS ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED NEAR
THE GNV TAF SITE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS EXPECTED MAINLY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES. WILL CARRY VCTS FOR NOW BUT AMENDMENTS TO INCLUDE TSRA
GROUPS LOOK LIKE A FAIR BET AS THE DAY UNFOLDS AND TIMING AND
SPECIFIC IMPACTS BECOME MORE CLEAR. ANY STORM IMPACTS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY BRIEF AT THE TAF SITES...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND
DIRECTION (WESTERLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING ONSHORE WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND THEN FINALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE
EVENING). SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE SOUTHERLY NOCTURNAL SURGES
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE DURING THE LAST PART OF THE
WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY ONWARD. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL 4 FOOTERS EXPECTED WELL
OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO LIGHTER ONSHORE FLOW
AND RELATIVELY WEAK SWELL ACTION OF ABOUT 2 FEET AT ROUGHLY 6 TO 8
SECONDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  72  89  72 /  60  50  70  60
SSI  89  76  85  76 /  60  40  70  60
JAX  91  73  89  74 /  60  40  70  70
SGJ  90  74  86  75 /  50  30  60  60
GNV  92  71  88  72 /  50  30  70  60
OCF  92  71  88  72 /  50  30  70  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/TRABERT






000
FXUS62 KJAX 200151
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
951 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

...MUGGY WITH ISOLATED LATE NIGHT SHOWERS...

.UPDATE...EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINED VERY TAME UNDER MEAN LAYER TROUGHING. THE JAX 00Z RAOB
INDICATED A SATURATED AIRMASS WITH 2.22 INCH PWAT WITH MOISTURE
EXTENDING THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DESTABILIZATION SINCE THE 12Z SOUNDING...WITH 500 MB TEMPS COOLING
FROM -5 TO -8 DEG. THIS DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH ACTIVE AND
MOIST SW FLOW WILL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD DISTRIBUTION OF SHOWER
AND STORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY.

WITH MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE AREA AND VERY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT...OPTED TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF MAINLY LATE NIGHT SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED SHOWER AND
ISOLATED TSTORM ACTIVITY EDGING INLAND ALONG THE SE GA COAST AND
THE FL BIG BEND DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND REFLECTED THIS
TREND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL WITH ABUNDANT DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S COAST/RIVER BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR AT THE TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR MVFR TO
TEMPO IFR AT VQQ BASED ON PERSISTENCE. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL
ENCROACH UPON GNV FROM THE WSW SUN MORNING. COULD SEE SOME EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF SSI AS WELL AND INTRODUCED VCSH AROUND
14Z. VCTS WAS ADVERTISED FOR ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 16-19Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SSE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT...4 FT
POSSIBLE N THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH TSTORMS
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  88  72  88 /  30  70  70  70
SSI  75  85  76  84 /  30  60  60  60
JAX  73  88  73  88 /  30  60  60  70
SGJ  74  86  75  86 /  40  50  50  60
GNV  72  88  71  88 /  30  60  60  70
OCF  72  89  72  88 /  30  60  60  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/ZIBURA/WALKER







000
FXUS62 KJAX 200151
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
951 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

...MUGGY WITH ISOLATED LATE NIGHT SHOWERS...

.UPDATE...EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINED VERY TAME UNDER MEAN LAYER TROUGHING. THE JAX 00Z RAOB
INDICATED A SATURATED AIRMASS WITH 2.22 INCH PWAT WITH MOISTURE
EXTENDING THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DESTABILIZATION SINCE THE 12Z SOUNDING...WITH 500 MB TEMPS COOLING
FROM -5 TO -8 DEG. THIS DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH ACTIVE AND
MOIST SW FLOW WILL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD DISTRIBUTION OF SHOWER
AND STORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY.

WITH MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE AREA AND VERY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT...OPTED TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF MAINLY LATE NIGHT SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED SHOWER AND
ISOLATED TSTORM ACTIVITY EDGING INLAND ALONG THE SE GA COAST AND
THE FL BIG BEND DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND REFLECTED THIS
TREND IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL WITH ABUNDANT DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S COAST/RIVER BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR AT THE TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR MVFR TO
TEMPO IFR AT VQQ BASED ON PERSISTENCE. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL
ENCROACH UPON GNV FROM THE WSW SUN MORNING. COULD SEE SOME EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF SSI AS WELL AND INTRODUCED VCSH AROUND
14Z. VCTS WAS ADVERTISED FOR ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 16-19Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SSE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT...4 FT
POSSIBLE N THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH TSTORMS
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  88  72  88 /  30  70  70  70
SSI  75  85  76  84 /  30  60  60  60
JAX  73  88  73  88 /  30  60  60  70
SGJ  74  86  75  86 /  40  50  50  60
GNV  72  88  71  88 /  30  60  60  70
OCF  72  89  72  88 /  30  60  60  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/ZIBURA/WALKER








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