Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KJAX 201358
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
858 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING EVENT
AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SE GA WITH SPRINKLES ALONG THE
FL/GA BORDER. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THIS LIFT WANING THIS AFTERNOON
WITH JUST LINGERING CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
PLENTY OF HOLES IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS NE FL TODAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...WHILE SE GA REMAINS
IN THE LOWER 60S. NE WEDGE SETS UP ALONG THE COAST WITH INCREASING
WINDS TO 10-15G20MPH AT TIMES...WITH HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE SE
GA COAST. FOR TONIGHT...NEXT ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS TO
SET UP WITH LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 20-40% RANGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...AND SHOULD KEEP ANY
PATCHY FOG FORMATION FROM BECOMING SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN THE ZFP/HWO/GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING...THEN A LOWERING TO MVFR
CIGS AFTER 00Z AND POTENTIAL IFR CIGS AFTER 06Z AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. REDUCTIONS IN VSBY DO NOT SEEM
AS LIKELY AS LOWER CIGS DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
BY TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. GRADIENT WILL BECOME A BIT
TIGHTER ACROSS SE GA TONIGHT/SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL 15-20 KNOT
WINDS AND SCEC HEADLINES ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FT
RANGE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  47  57  52 /  40  40  70  90
SSI  61  52  59  55 /  10  40  50  90
JAX  66  52  65  58 /  10  30  50  80
SGJ  67  56  68  62 /  10  20  40  80
GNV  71  53  70  61 /  10  20  50  80
OCF  74  56  74  62 /   0  10  50  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/ALLEN/PETERSON





000
FXUS62 KJAX 200933
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
432 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...WIDESPREAD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...
.TODAY...AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NE OF THE GREAT LAKES
STRETCHES DOWN THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS COASTAL
TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE SE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. IN RESPONSE
A NORTH NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL BUILD IN INCREASING WINDS ALONG
THE COAST TO NEAR 10 TO 15 MPH. THE INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR WEST OVER
THE THE NORTH CENTRAL GOMEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
FL PENINSULA. SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SE GA WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES OFF OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL ACROSS SE GA WITH BKN TO OVC SKIES IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
WITH MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER OVER NE FL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOW 70S EXPECTED.

.TONIGHT....WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COAST WITH INCREASED GRADIENT BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FLORIDA.
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN SE GA AND
MID/UPPER 50S FOR NE FL.

.MEDIUM RANGE...SUN THROUGH WED NIGHT...

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WAVES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND EMBEDDED T`STORMS DUE TO A LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE AREA
INTERACTING WITH PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AXIS WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS INLAND NE FL WITH A COOL AND DREARY NNE FLOW
BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES
MON MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE EASTERN GULF
AND TRACKS ENE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON ALONG A
MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE. CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES WERE ADVERTISED
BEGINNING SUN EVENING AND THEN OVERSPREADING FROM W-E ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MON MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND
EMBEDDED ISOLATED STORMS. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE OF THE AREA
MON AFTN A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN WIDESPREAD PERSISTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO MON EVENING. A
RESURGENCE OF RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED TSTORMS IS THEN ANTICIPATED
AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS THE MEANDERING FRONT LIFTS
FARTHER NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WHERE INFLUX OF
GULF MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST.

TEMPS WILL RANGE SUN FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN TO LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA. SUN NIGHT THE ONSET OF RAINFALL WILL
BRING MILD TEMPS AS THE SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE AREA WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S N TO LOWER 60S SOUTH. TEMPS MON WILL BE WARMER WITH THE LOW
NE OF THE AREA AND THE LINGERING TROUGH A SSW FLOW IN ITS WAKE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. MON NIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL
HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN TRAILING ABOVE CLIMO
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

TUE & TUE NIGHT...WARM FRONTAL RAINFALL WILL POSITION NEAR TO NORTH
OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IMPACTING THE
AREA TUE MORNING. BY TUE AFTN A CLUSTER OF TSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DRIFT INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST REGION AND FILL IN
FROM SW-NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH
INCREASING DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS40
CONTINUED TO INDICATE 30-40 KT 850 MB WINDS ACROSS THE SUWANNEE
RIVER VALLEY TUE AFTN PUSHING INLAND ACROSS SE GA AND THEN THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT. NOT ONLY IS WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO TRANSPIRE
WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WED & WED NIGHT...PRECIP WILL PUSH OFF TO THE ESE WED MORNING WITH
CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER COOLER...DRIER AND BREEZY WNW
WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF COAST REGION
AND SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE 60S WED WITH
LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S COAST WITH
ELEVATED WINDS PRECLUDING FROST FORMATION.

.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH SAT....

COOLER AND DRY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FL PENINSULA THU-FRI WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. MINS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S INLAND TO MID/UPPER
40S COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S UNDER CLEAR SKIES THU-FRI. COULD SEE
SOME INLAND FROST THU NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE FRI AND SAT AS A WASHED OUT
FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES FROM THE NW WITH TEMPS MODERATING AS MEAN
LAYER FLOW BACKS WSW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SE GA
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS SO HAVE KEPT VCSH IN AT SSI
THROUGH NOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND BKN TO OVC SKIES. GUIDANCE HAS
BEGUN TO HINT AT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT BUT
HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADD IN
NEXT PACKAGE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP TODAY AS NORTH NORTHEASTERLY SURGE
BUILDS IN INCREASING WINDS TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS FOR MOST OF THE
COASTAL ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY
NIGHT TO 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED EARLY TODAY
WITH INCREASING RISK THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  48  58  52 /  40  20  60  90
SSI  61  52  60  55 /  20  20  40  90
JAX  67  53  65  58 /  10  20  50  80
SGJ  67  58  67  62 /  10  20  40  80
GNV  70  55  69  61 /  10  20  50  80
OCF  72  56  72  62 /  10  20  50  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/GUILLET










000
FXUS62 KJAX 200933
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
432 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

...WIDESPREAD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...
.TODAY...AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NE OF THE GREAT LAKES
STRETCHES DOWN THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS COASTAL
TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE SE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. IN RESPONSE
A NORTH NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL BUILD IN INCREASING WINDS ALONG
THE COAST TO NEAR 10 TO 15 MPH. THE INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR WEST OVER
THE THE NORTH CENTRAL GOMEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
FL PENINSULA. SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SE GA WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES OFF OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRESENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL ACROSS SE GA WITH BKN TO OVC SKIES IN THE LOW/MID 60S.
WITH MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER OVER NE FL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOW 70S EXPECTED.

.TONIGHT....WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE COAST WITH INCREASED GRADIENT BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS FLORIDA.
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN SE GA AND
MID/UPPER 50S FOR NE FL.

.MEDIUM RANGE...SUN THROUGH WED NIGHT...

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WAVES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND EMBEDDED T`STORMS DUE TO A LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE AREA
INTERACTING WITH PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AXIS WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS INLAND NE FL WITH A COOL AND DREARY NNE FLOW
BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES
MON MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE EASTERN GULF
AND TRACKS ENE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON ALONG A
MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE. CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES WERE ADVERTISED
BEGINNING SUN EVENING AND THEN OVERSPREADING FROM W-E ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MON MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND
EMBEDDED ISOLATED STORMS. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NE OF THE AREA
MON AFTN A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN WIDESPREAD PERSISTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO MON EVENING. A
RESURGENCE OF RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED TSTORMS IS THEN ANTICIPATED
AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS THE MEANDERING FRONT LIFTS
FARTHER NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WHERE INFLUX OF
GULF MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST.

TEMPS WILL RANGE SUN FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN TO LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA. SUN NIGHT THE ONSET OF RAINFALL WILL
BRING MILD TEMPS AS THE SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE AREA WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S N TO LOWER 60S SOUTH. TEMPS MON WILL BE WARMER WITH THE LOW
NE OF THE AREA AND THE LINGERING TROUGH A SSW FLOW IN ITS WAKE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. MON NIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL
HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN TRAILING ABOVE CLIMO
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

TUE & TUE NIGHT...WARM FRONTAL RAINFALL WILL POSITION NEAR TO NORTH
OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IMPACTING THE
AREA TUE MORNING. BY TUE AFTN A CLUSTER OF TSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL DRIFT INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST REGION AND FILL IN
FROM SW-NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH
INCREASING DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS40
CONTINUED TO INDICATE 30-40 KT 850 MB WINDS ACROSS THE SUWANNEE
RIVER VALLEY TUE AFTN PUSHING INLAND ACROSS SE GA AND THEN THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT. NOT ONLY IS WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO TRANSPIRE
WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WED & WED NIGHT...PRECIP WILL PUSH OFF TO THE ESE WED MORNING WITH
CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER COOLER...DRIER AND BREEZY WNW
WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF COAST REGION
AND SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE 60S WED WITH
LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S COAST WITH
ELEVATED WINDS PRECLUDING FROST FORMATION.

.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH SAT....

COOLER AND DRY DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FL PENINSULA THU-FRI WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. MINS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S INLAND TO MID/UPPER
40S COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S UNDER CLEAR SKIES THU-FRI. COULD SEE
SOME INLAND FROST THU NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE FRI AND SAT AS A WASHED OUT
FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES FROM THE NW WITH TEMPS MODERATING AS MEAN
LAYER FLOW BACKS WSW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SE GA
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS SO HAVE KEPT VCSH IN AT SSI
THROUGH NOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND BKN TO OVC SKIES. GUIDANCE HAS
BEGUN TO HINT AT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT BUT
HAVE NOT INCLUDED FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADD IN
NEXT PACKAGE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP TODAY AS NORTH NORTHEASTERLY SURGE
BUILDS IN INCREASING WINDS TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS FOR MOST OF THE
COASTAL ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY
NIGHT TO 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED EARLY TODAY
WITH INCREASING RISK THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  48  58  52 /  40  20  60  90
SSI  61  52  60  55 /  20  20  40  90
JAX  67  53  65  58 /  10  20  50  80
SGJ  67  58  67  62 /  10  20  40  80
GNV  70  55  69  61 /  10  20  50  80
OCF  72  56  72  62 /  10  20  50  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/GUILLET











000
FXUS62 KJAX 200224
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
924 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE (1013 MILLIBARS)
POSITIONED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST....WITH A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT POSITIONED EAST OF THIS FEATURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE (1026 MILLIBARS) WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES STATES. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER THE ARKLATEX WAS PROGRESSING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WAS INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...WITH A
SHIELD OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE OCMULGEE RIVER. THE
EVENING SOUNDING AT JACKSONVILLE DISPLAYED A VERY DRY LAYER
BETWEEN 825-700 MILLIBARS (6000-10000 FT)...AND THUS IT WILL TAKE
TIME TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS AS THE RAIN SHIELD MOVES INTO OUR
REGION. WE CONFINED POPS TO LOCATIONS MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10...WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE OCMULGEE/ALTAMAHA RIVERS. DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WILL BE LIGHT. THE HI-RES HRRR MODEL DEPICTS FOG FORMATION
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FL OVERNIGHT...BUT WE ARE DISCOUNTING
THIS DUE TO THICK MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER THAT HAS
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID 40S
INLAND...RANGING TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST. SCATTERED RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL DESPITE EXTENSIVE MID
AND HIGH CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THICKENING
MID CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT WILL INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL
MAINTAIN VCSH AT SSI FOR POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES
MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS AND SEAS AVERAGING AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. NO CHANGES NEEDED
FOR THE ROUTINE EVENING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

RIP CURRENTS: POSSIBLE MODERATE RISK EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND IN
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  45  61  48  61 /  50  40  20  40
SSI  51  62  51  63 /  30  20  20  30
JAX  48  68  53  68 /  20  10  10  30
SGJ  51  68  57  69 /  10  10  10  30
GNV  46  71  55  71 /  10   0  10  50
OCF  46  72  56  73 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/SHULER/









000
FXUS62 KJAX 191936
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
236 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

...A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS ACRS NE FL/SE GA AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
WHILE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND LIFT/MOISTURE PUSHING IMPULSES OF LIGHT SHOWER/VIRGA
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS
HAVE THIS ACTIVITY WASHING OUT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE DRIER AIRMASS OVERTOP OF NE FL/SE GA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS
SE GA AND LEAVE OUT THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH AS THIS BALL OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY DISPERSES IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AND FAR INLAND SE GA AROUND SUNSET.

TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
GOMEX WHILE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUE TO INCREASE NORTHEAST OF
THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH RAINFALL CHANCES
INCREASING. THIS FIRST IMPULSE WILL MAINLY IMPACT SE GA AND AREAS TO
THE NORTHWEST AND MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYNOPTIC
DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT 30-50% RAINFALL
CHANCES NORTH OF WAYCROSS AND 15-30% RAINFALL CHANCES FROM THE FL/GA
BORDER NORTHWARD TO WAYCROSS AND GENERALLY 10% OR LESS ACROSS NE FL
AS DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE REGION. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED FOR SE GA WHILE THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME BREAKS IN THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NE FL. SLIGHTLY MILDER
OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 45-50 DEG RANGE EXPECTED. THE SHIFT TO A MORE
MOIST SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OVERTOP OF A VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW
AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND HAVE ADDED A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE
ZFP/GRIDS/HWO TOWARDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AT THIS TIME DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA PRODUCING A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER NORTHERN
GA AND CAROLINAS. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A REMARKABLE INCREASE
OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-600 MB LEVEL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
PRIMING OF THE LOW LEVELS OCCURRING DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD OCCUR MID DAY
SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE VORT LOBE TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN GEORGIA. HAVE STRATIFIED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SE GEORGIA SATURDAY WITH POPS IN THE LOWER TEENS FROM THE ST MARYS
RIVER TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AS ONE GOES NORTHWARD
TOWARD HAZLEHURST AND BAXLEY. ONLY RESIDUAL ISOLD SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT OVER INTERIOR SE GA AS BEST FORCING
MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE. WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING FURTHER SOUTH...BREEZY NE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. SATURDAY NIGHT... MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER INTERIOR INLAND SE GA
TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERCOASTAL AND COASTAL NE FL.

&&

.MEDIUM RANGE /SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY/...A LARGE BROAD CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGH WILL BE MIGRATING SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH AN UNSETTLE
WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BECOME MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LIKELY CHANCES ON MONDAY AS DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LIFTS RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS OVER COOLER AIR.
COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE TO SCATTERED MONDAY NIGHT AS
SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PULLING MOISTURE UP OVER THE AREA AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES WESTERN GEORGIA AND PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH MODIFIED
AIRMASS AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROF WILL LEND TO AN INCREASE IN THE LLJ AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
WITH THIS SAID...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THE ANTICIPATED IN THIS TYPE OF REGIME. CURRENT WPC QPF FORECASTS
SHOWING RAINFALL TOTALS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM 1.5 TO 3
INCHES WITH HIGH LEVELS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT
FORCING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND. MILD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN
COOL DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL SWEEP IN WITH A BREEZY DAY.

&&

.LONG RANGE /CHRISTMAS THROUGH FRIDAY/...IT WILL START OFF COOL ON
CHRISTMAS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S SE GA AND IN THE 40
TO 45 DEGREE RANGE NE FL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
A SUNNY DAY AND HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE FRI AND TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND COMMENCEMENT OF ONSHORE FLOW.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY LOWERING TONIGHT AND INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NEAR CALM WINDS MAY STILL BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE 4-6SM VSBYS IN FOG DESPITE THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS.
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT VSBYS IN FOG AND FOR NOW
HAVE GONE WITH 4-6SM VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS NE FL TAF SITES. FURTHER
NORTH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z AT KSSI AND
HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION WITH VCSH IN TAF FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...N/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2 FEET. A BOUNDARY WILL SEEP INTO
NE FL SATURDAY AND BECOMES MOSTLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TSTMS
EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MID WEEK. NORTHERLY SURGE WILL PUSH IN ON SATURDAY WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING BELOW 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS IN THE
OUTER GA WATERS WITH OFFSHORE WATERS INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FEET BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY BECOMING LOW-MOD RISK ON SATURDAY AS
NE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT ISSUED TO ALERT USERS TO ONE OF THE DRIEST
LATE NOV THRU MID DEC PERIODS ON RECORD ACROSS NE FL/SE GA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  45  61  48  61 /  30  40  20  40
SSI  51  62  51  63 /  20  30  20  30
JAX  48  68  53  68 /  10  10  10  30
SGJ  51  68  57  69 /  10  10  10  30
GNV  46  71  55  71 /  10   0  10  50
OCF  46  72  56  73 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

CORDERO/HESS/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KJAX 191936
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
236 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

...A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS ACRS NE FL/SE GA AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
WHILE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND LIFT/MOISTURE PUSHING IMPULSES OF LIGHT SHOWER/VIRGA
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS
HAVE THIS ACTIVITY WASHING OUT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE DRIER AIRMASS OVERTOP OF NE FL/SE GA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS
SE GA AND LEAVE OUT THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH AS THIS BALL OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY DISPERSES IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AND FAR INLAND SE GA AROUND SUNSET.

TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
GOMEX WHILE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUE TO INCREASE NORTHEAST OF
THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH RAINFALL CHANCES
INCREASING. THIS FIRST IMPULSE WILL MAINLY IMPACT SE GA AND AREAS TO
THE NORTHWEST AND MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYNOPTIC
DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT 30-50% RAINFALL
CHANCES NORTH OF WAYCROSS AND 15-30% RAINFALL CHANCES FROM THE FL/GA
BORDER NORTHWARD TO WAYCROSS AND GENERALLY 10% OR LESS ACROSS NE FL
AS DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE REGION. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED FOR SE GA WHILE THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME BREAKS IN THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NE FL. SLIGHTLY MILDER
OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 45-50 DEG RANGE EXPECTED. THE SHIFT TO A MORE
MOIST SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OVERTOP OF A VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW
AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND HAVE ADDED A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE
ZFP/GRIDS/HWO TOWARDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AT THIS TIME DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA PRODUCING A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER NORTHERN
GA AND CAROLINAS. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A REMARKABLE INCREASE
OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-600 MB LEVEL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
PRIMING OF THE LOW LEVELS OCCURRING DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD OCCUR MID DAY
SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE VORT LOBE TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN GEORGIA. HAVE STRATIFIED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SE GEORGIA SATURDAY WITH POPS IN THE LOWER TEENS FROM THE ST MARYS
RIVER TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AS ONE GOES NORTHWARD
TOWARD HAZLEHURST AND BAXLEY. ONLY RESIDUAL ISOLD SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT OVER INTERIOR SE GA AS BEST FORCING
MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE. WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING FURTHER SOUTH...BREEZY NE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. SATURDAY NIGHT... MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER INTERIOR INLAND SE GA
TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERCOASTAL AND COASTAL NE FL.

&&

.MEDIUM RANGE /SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY/...A LARGE BROAD CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGH WILL BE MIGRATING SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH AN UNSETTLE
WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BECOME MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LIKELY CHANCES ON MONDAY AS DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LIFTS RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS OVER COOLER AIR.
COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE TO SCATTERED MONDAY NIGHT AS
SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PULLING MOISTURE UP OVER THE AREA AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES WESTERN GEORGIA AND PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH MODIFIED
AIRMASS AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROF WILL LEND TO AN INCREASE IN THE LLJ AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
WITH THIS SAID...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THE ANTICIPATED IN THIS TYPE OF REGIME. CURRENT WPC QPF FORECASTS
SHOWING RAINFALL TOTALS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM 1.5 TO 3
INCHES WITH HIGH LEVELS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT
FORCING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND. MILD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN
COOL DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL SWEEP IN WITH A BREEZY DAY.

&&

.LONG RANGE /CHRISTMAS THROUGH FRIDAY/...IT WILL START OFF COOL ON
CHRISTMAS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S SE GA AND IN THE 40
TO 45 DEGREE RANGE NE FL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
A SUNNY DAY AND HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE FRI AND TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND COMMENCEMENT OF ONSHORE FLOW.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY LOWERING TONIGHT AND INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NEAR CALM WINDS MAY STILL BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE 4-6SM VSBYS IN FOG DESPITE THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS.
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT VSBYS IN FOG AND FOR NOW
HAVE GONE WITH 4-6SM VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS NE FL TAF SITES. FURTHER
NORTH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z AT KSSI AND
HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION WITH VCSH IN TAF FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...N/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2 FEET. A BOUNDARY WILL SEEP INTO
NE FL SATURDAY AND BECOMES MOSTLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TSTMS
EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MID WEEK. NORTHERLY SURGE WILL PUSH IN ON SATURDAY WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING BELOW 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS IN THE
OUTER GA WATERS WITH OFFSHORE WATERS INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FEET BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY BECOMING LOW-MOD RISK ON SATURDAY AS
NE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT ISSUED TO ALERT USERS TO ONE OF THE DRIEST
LATE NOV THRU MID DEC PERIODS ON RECORD ACROSS NE FL/SE GA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  45  61  48  61 /  30  40  20  40
SSI  51  62  51  63 /  20  30  20  30
JAX  48  68  53  68 /  10  10  10  30
SGJ  51  68  57  69 /  10  10  10  30
GNV  46  71  55  71 /  10   0  10  50
OCF  46  72  56  73 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

CORDERO/HESS/WALSH








000
FXUS62 KJAX 191936
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
236 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

...A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS ACRS NE FL/SE GA AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
WHILE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND LIFT/MOISTURE PUSHING IMPULSES OF LIGHT SHOWER/VIRGA
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS
HAVE THIS ACTIVITY WASHING OUT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE DRIER AIRMASS OVERTOP OF NE FL/SE GA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS
SE GA AND LEAVE OUT THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH AS THIS BALL OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY DISPERSES IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AND FAR INLAND SE GA AROUND SUNSET.

TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
GOMEX WHILE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUE TO INCREASE NORTHEAST OF
THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH RAINFALL CHANCES
INCREASING. THIS FIRST IMPULSE WILL MAINLY IMPACT SE GA AND AREAS TO
THE NORTHWEST AND MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYNOPTIC
DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT 30-50% RAINFALL
CHANCES NORTH OF WAYCROSS AND 15-30% RAINFALL CHANCES FROM THE FL/GA
BORDER NORTHWARD TO WAYCROSS AND GENERALLY 10% OR LESS ACROSS NE FL
AS DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE REGION. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED FOR SE GA WHILE THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME BREAKS IN THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NE FL. SLIGHTLY MILDER
OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 45-50 DEG RANGE EXPECTED. THE SHIFT TO A MORE
MOIST SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OVERTOP OF A VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW
AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND HAVE ADDED A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE
ZFP/GRIDS/HWO TOWARDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AT THIS TIME DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA PRODUCING A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER NORTHERN
GA AND CAROLINAS. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A REMARKABLE INCREASE
OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-600 MB LEVEL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
PRIMING OF THE LOW LEVELS OCCURRING DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD OCCUR MID DAY
SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE VORT LOBE TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN GEORGIA. HAVE STRATIFIED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SE GEORGIA SATURDAY WITH POPS IN THE LOWER TEENS FROM THE ST MARYS
RIVER TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AS ONE GOES NORTHWARD
TOWARD HAZLEHURST AND BAXLEY. ONLY RESIDUAL ISOLD SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT OVER INTERIOR SE GA AS BEST FORCING
MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE. WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING FURTHER SOUTH...BREEZY NE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. SATURDAY NIGHT... MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER INTERIOR INLAND SE GA
TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERCOASTAL AND COASTAL NE FL.

&&

.MEDIUM RANGE /SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY/...A LARGE BROAD CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGH WILL BE MIGRATING SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH AN UNSETTLE
WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BECOME MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LIKELY CHANCES ON MONDAY AS DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LIFTS RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS OVER COOLER AIR.
COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE TO SCATTERED MONDAY NIGHT AS
SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PULLING MOISTURE UP OVER THE AREA AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES WESTERN GEORGIA AND PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH MODIFIED
AIRMASS AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROF WILL LEND TO AN INCREASE IN THE LLJ AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
WITH THIS SAID...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THE ANTICIPATED IN THIS TYPE OF REGIME. CURRENT WPC QPF FORECASTS
SHOWING RAINFALL TOTALS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM 1.5 TO 3
INCHES WITH HIGH LEVELS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT
FORCING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND. MILD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN
COOL DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL SWEEP IN WITH A BREEZY DAY.

&&

.LONG RANGE /CHRISTMAS THROUGH FRIDAY/...IT WILL START OFF COOL ON
CHRISTMAS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S SE GA AND IN THE 40
TO 45 DEGREE RANGE NE FL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
A SUNNY DAY AND HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE FRI AND TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND COMMENCEMENT OF ONSHORE FLOW.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY LOWERING TONIGHT AND INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NEAR CALM WINDS MAY STILL BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE 4-6SM VSBYS IN FOG DESPITE THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS.
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT VSBYS IN FOG AND FOR NOW
HAVE GONE WITH 4-6SM VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS NE FL TAF SITES. FURTHER
NORTH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z AT KSSI AND
HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION WITH VCSH IN TAF FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...N/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2 FEET. A BOUNDARY WILL SEEP INTO
NE FL SATURDAY AND BECOMES MOSTLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TSTMS
EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MID WEEK. NORTHERLY SURGE WILL PUSH IN ON SATURDAY WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING BELOW 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS IN THE
OUTER GA WATERS WITH OFFSHORE WATERS INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FEET BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY BECOMING LOW-MOD RISK ON SATURDAY AS
NE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT ISSUED TO ALERT USERS TO ONE OF THE DRIEST
LATE NOV THRU MID DEC PERIODS ON RECORD ACROSS NE FL/SE GA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  45  61  48  61 /  30  40  20  40
SSI  51  62  51  63 /  20  30  20  30
JAX  48  68  53  68 /  10  10  10  30
SGJ  51  68  57  69 /  10  10  10  30
GNV  46  71  55  71 /  10   0  10  50
OCF  46  72  56  73 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

CORDERO/HESS/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KJAX 191936
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
236 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

...A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS ACRS NE FL/SE GA AND TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
WHILE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND LIFT/MOISTURE PUSHING IMPULSES OF LIGHT SHOWER/VIRGA
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS
HAVE THIS ACTIVITY WASHING OUT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE DRIER AIRMASS OVERTOP OF NE FL/SE GA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS
SE GA AND LEAVE OUT THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH AS THIS BALL OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY DISPERSES IT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AND FAR INLAND SE GA AROUND SUNSET.

TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
GOMEX WHILE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUE TO INCREASE NORTHEAST OF
THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH RAINFALL CHANCES
INCREASING. THIS FIRST IMPULSE WILL MAINLY IMPACT SE GA AND AREAS TO
THE NORTHWEST AND MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYNOPTIC
DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT 30-50% RAINFALL
CHANCES NORTH OF WAYCROSS AND 15-30% RAINFALL CHANCES FROM THE FL/GA
BORDER NORTHWARD TO WAYCROSS AND GENERALLY 10% OR LESS ACROSS NE FL
AS DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE REGION. MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED FOR SE GA WHILE THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME BREAKS IN THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NE FL. SLIGHTLY MILDER
OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 45-50 DEG RANGE EXPECTED. THE SHIFT TO A MORE
MOIST SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OVERTOP OF A VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW
AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND HAVE ADDED A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE
ZFP/GRIDS/HWO TOWARDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AT THIS TIME DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA PRODUCING A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER NORTHERN
GA AND CAROLINAS. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A REMARKABLE INCREASE
OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-600 MB LEVEL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
PRIMING OF THE LOW LEVELS OCCURRING DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD OCCUR MID DAY
SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE VORT LOBE TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN GEORGIA. HAVE STRATIFIED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SE GEORGIA SATURDAY WITH POPS IN THE LOWER TEENS FROM THE ST MARYS
RIVER TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AS ONE GOES NORTHWARD
TOWARD HAZLEHURST AND BAXLEY. ONLY RESIDUAL ISOLD SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT OVER INTERIOR SE GA AS BEST FORCING
MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE. WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING FURTHER SOUTH...BREEZY NE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. SATURDAY NIGHT... MIN
TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER INTERIOR INLAND SE GA
TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERCOASTAL AND COASTAL NE FL.

&&

.MEDIUM RANGE /SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY/...A LARGE BROAD CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGH WILL BE MIGRATING SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH AN UNSETTLE
WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BECOME MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH LIKELY CHANCES ON MONDAY AS DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LIFTS RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS OVER COOLER AIR.
COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE TO SCATTERED MONDAY NIGHT AS
SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PULLING MOISTURE UP OVER THE AREA AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES WESTERN GEORGIA AND PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH MODIFIED
AIRMASS AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROF WILL LEND TO AN INCREASE IN THE LLJ AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
WITH THIS SAID...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THE ANTICIPATED IN THIS TYPE OF REGIME. CURRENT WPC QPF FORECASTS
SHOWING RAINFALL TOTALS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM 1.5 TO 3
INCHES WITH HIGH LEVELS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT
FORCING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND. MILD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN
COOL DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL SWEEP IN WITH A BREEZY DAY.

&&

.LONG RANGE /CHRISTMAS THROUGH FRIDAY/...IT WILL START OFF COOL ON
CHRISTMAS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S SE GA AND IN THE 40
TO 45 DEGREE RANGE NE FL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE
A SUNNY DAY AND HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE FRI AND TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND COMMENCEMENT OF ONSHORE FLOW.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY LOWERING TONIGHT AND INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NEAR CALM WINDS MAY STILL BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE 4-6SM VSBYS IN FOG DESPITE THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS.
STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT VSBYS IN FOG AND FOR NOW
HAVE GONE WITH 4-6SM VSBYS IN FOG ACROSS NE FL TAF SITES. FURTHER
NORTH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z AT KSSI AND
HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION WITH VCSH IN TAF FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...N/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2 FEET. A BOUNDARY WILL SEEP INTO
NE FL SATURDAY AND BECOMES MOSTLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TSTMS
EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MID WEEK. NORTHERLY SURGE WILL PUSH IN ON SATURDAY WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING BELOW 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS IN THE
OUTER GA WATERS WITH OFFSHORE WATERS INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FEET BY
SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY BECOMING LOW-MOD RISK ON SATURDAY AS
NE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT ISSUED TO ALERT USERS TO ONE OF THE DRIEST
LATE NOV THRU MID DEC PERIODS ON RECORD ACROSS NE FL/SE GA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  45  61  48  61 /  30  40  20  40
SSI  51  62  51  63 /  20  30  20  30
JAX  48  68  53  68 /  10  10  10  30
SGJ  51  68  57  69 /  10  10  10  30
GNV  46  71  55  71 /  10   0  10  50
OCF  46  72  56  73 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

CORDERO/HESS/WALSH








000
FXUS62 KJAX 191408
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
908 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

...A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NE
FL/SE GA SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GOMEX WHICH WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS
OF HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHILE MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN AND INCREASE ACROSS SE GA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPGLIDE/OVERRUNNING STARTS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SPREADS E/NE. NO RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGHS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO LEVELS IN THE 60S.

TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
GOMEX WHILE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUE TO INCREASE NORTHEAST OF
THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH RAINFALL CHANCES
INCREASING. THIS FIRST IMPULSE WILL MAINLY IMPACT SE GA AND AREAS
TO THE NORTHWEST AND MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYNOPTIC DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR
SOUTH MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT 30-50%
RAINFALL CHANCES NORTH OF WAYCROSS AND 15-30% RAINFALL CHANCES
FROM THE FL/GA BORDER NORTHWARD TO WAYCROSS AND GENERALLY 10% OR
LESS ACROSS NE FL AS DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED FOR SE GA
WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS NE FL. SLIGHTLY MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 45-50 DEG
RANGE EXPECTED. THE SHIFT TO A MORE MOIST SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW
OVERTOP OF A VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND HAVE
ADDED A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE ZFP/GRIDS/HWO TOWARDS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT FOG.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS THROUGH 09Z...THEN MODELS SUGGESTING LOW PROBS OF IFR
CIGS AND/OR VSBYS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE FL SOUTH OF JAX WHICH MAY
IMPACT KGNV AND/OR KVQQ. PROBS/CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE IN TAF SETS.

&&

.MARINE...
N/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
MORE STEADY INCREASE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. NO HEADLINES.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. LOW-MOD RISK SATURDAY AS NORTHEAST
FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  45  61  48 /   0  30  30  20
SSI  63  51  62  51 /   0  20  20  10
JAX  67  48  68  53 /   0  10  10  10
SGJ  65  51  68  57 /   0  10  10  10
GNV  69  46  71  55 /   0  10   0   0
OCF  70  46  72  56 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/CORDERO/ALLEN






000
FXUS62 KJAX 191408
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
908 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

...A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NE
FL/SE GA SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GOMEX WHICH WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS
OF HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHILE MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN AND INCREASE ACROSS SE GA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPGLIDE/OVERRUNNING STARTS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SPREADS E/NE. NO RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGHS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO LEVELS IN THE 60S.

TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
GOMEX WHILE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUE TO INCREASE NORTHEAST OF
THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH RAINFALL CHANCES
INCREASING. THIS FIRST IMPULSE WILL MAINLY IMPACT SE GA AND AREAS
TO THE NORTHWEST AND MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYNOPTIC DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR
SOUTH MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT 30-50%
RAINFALL CHANCES NORTH OF WAYCROSS AND 15-30% RAINFALL CHANCES
FROM THE FL/GA BORDER NORTHWARD TO WAYCROSS AND GENERALLY 10% OR
LESS ACROSS NE FL AS DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED FOR SE GA
WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS NE FL. SLIGHTLY MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 45-50 DEG
RANGE EXPECTED. THE SHIFT TO A MORE MOIST SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW
OVERTOP OF A VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND HAVE
ADDED A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE ZFP/GRIDS/HWO TOWARDS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT FOG.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS THROUGH 09Z...THEN MODELS SUGGESTING LOW PROBS OF IFR
CIGS AND/OR VSBYS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE FL SOUTH OF JAX WHICH MAY
IMPACT KGNV AND/OR KVQQ. PROBS/CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE IN TAF SETS.

&&

.MARINE...
N/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
MORE STEADY INCREASE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. NO HEADLINES.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. LOW-MOD RISK SATURDAY AS NORTHEAST
FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  45  61  48 /   0  30  30  20
SSI  63  51  62  51 /   0  20  20  10
JAX  67  48  68  53 /   0  10  10  10
SGJ  65  51  68  57 /   0  10  10  10
GNV  69  46  71  55 /   0  10   0   0
OCF  70  46  72  56 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/CORDERO/ALLEN





000
FXUS62 KJAX 190937
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
437 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS
SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO PRESSES EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOISTURE ABOVE 500 MB WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING
PERSISTENT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO LEAVE CONDITIONS PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DURING THE AFTERNOON...MID
LEVEL IMPULSE WILL TREK ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA BRINGING IN AN
ISOLATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES IN SE GA
ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO
NE FL WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WORKING DOWN INTO THE LOWER LEVELS AS
WEAK BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT FROM THURSDAY IN THE MID 60S FOR SE GA AND
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS NE FL.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRESS TOWARDS THE AREA ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH BOUNDARY REMAINING STATIONARY
ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE GA
IN RESPONSE. CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED
WHICH WILL MODERATE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S FOR
SE GA AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

SAT & SAT NIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL POSITION OFFSHORE OF THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. A WEAK AND SHEARED OUT
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS OVER SE GA WHILE RIDGING HOLDS FIRM OVER
THE FL PENINSULA. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSING SHORT WAVE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BRING A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN EARLY SAT MORNING
WITH PRECIP CHANCES IN THE 20-30% RANGE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH SAT EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF NE FL UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 OVER THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN UNDER A COOL NE FLOW WHILE FARTHER SOUTH TEMPS WILL NEAR 70
ACROSS OUR INLAND FL ZONES TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST. PRECIP WILL LIFT OFF TO THE ENE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE EXTENDS FARTHER SOUTH OVER NE FL WITH BREEZY NE WINDS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S OVER
INLAND SE GA TO THE MID/UPPER 50S NE FL WHERE SOME LOW STRATUS AND
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDS NEXT
WEEK AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FORM ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE THAT
MEANDERS OVER NE FL/SE GA THROUGH MID WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN ISENTROPIC RAINFALL EVENT THAT DEVELOPS
LATE SUN AND PERSISTS THROUGH MON AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACKS ENE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA SUN
EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY MON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OF AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO 70-80% SUN NIGHT DUE TO MODEL
AGREEMENT AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER SSW
LATE MON WHICH WILL MODERATE TEMPS A FEW DEG AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISED ISOLATED TSTORMS
SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF TSTORMS OVER
THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY SUN NIGHT WHICH COULD HAVE SOME GUSTY
WINDS GIVEN TRAJECTORY OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY EDGING INLAND
FROM THE GULF COINCIDING WITH ELEVATED 850 MB WINDS PER THE GFS40 OF
30-40 KTS. RAINFALL CHANCES DECREASE NW-SE MON AFTN AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS NE OF THE REGION WHILE TRAILING ITS LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE LOW RAIN CHANCES
INTO MON NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT MILD GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WITH HIGHS SUN & MON IN THE 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH AND
MINS SUN/MON NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S COAST.

.LONG TERM...TUE THROUGH FRI....

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL RETURNS FROM S-N TUE AS STACKED LOW PRESSURE
PHASE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT.
PRE-FRONTAL RAINFALL INCLUDING THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM SW TO NE TUE AFTN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FILTER OVER THE REGION FOR CHRISTMAS EVE UNDER BREEZY WEST
WINDS WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO VALUES. HIGHS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S BOTH WED AND THU WITH LOWS WED NIGHT/THU
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S RIVER BASIN AND COAST.
FROST NOT LIKELY CHRISTMAS EVE GIVEN ELEVATED WINDS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THU AND FRI
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL AND THEN BACKING SW INTO THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT VQQ AND GNV FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD APPROACHING SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND BKN HIGH CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE FRIDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM TREKS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GOMEX ACCOMPANIED BY A BOUNDARY WHICH
BECOMES MOSTLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK.
NORTHERLY SURGE WILL PUSH IN ON SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING
BELOW 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS IN THE OUTER GA WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY WITH A MODERATE RISK
POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  47  61  48 /  20  30  30  20
SSI  63  53  62  51 /  10  10  20  10
JAX  66  49  68  53 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  65  53  68  57 /   0  10  10  10
GNV  69  48  71  55 /   0  10   0   0
OCF  70  49  72  56 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/GUILLET











000
FXUS62 KJAX 190937
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
437 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS
SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO PRESSES EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOISTURE ABOVE 500 MB WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING
PERSISTENT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO LEAVE CONDITIONS PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DURING THE AFTERNOON...MID
LEVEL IMPULSE WILL TREK ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA BRINGING IN AN
ISOLATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES IN SE GA
ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO
NE FL WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WORKING DOWN INTO THE LOWER LEVELS AS
WEAK BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT FROM THURSDAY IN THE MID 60S FOR SE GA AND
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS NE FL.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRESS TOWARDS THE AREA ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH BOUNDARY REMAINING STATIONARY
ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE GA
IN RESPONSE. CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED
WHICH WILL MODERATE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S FOR
SE GA AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

SAT & SAT NIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL POSITION OFFSHORE OF THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. A WEAK AND SHEARED OUT
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS OVER SE GA WHILE RIDGING HOLDS FIRM OVER
THE FL PENINSULA. THE COMBINATION OF THE PASSING SHORT WAVE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL BRING A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN EARLY SAT MORNING
WITH PRECIP CHANCES IN THE 20-30% RANGE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH SAT EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF NE FL UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 OVER THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN UNDER A COOL NE FLOW WHILE FARTHER SOUTH TEMPS WILL NEAR 70
ACROSS OUR INLAND FL ZONES TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST. PRECIP WILL LIFT OFF TO THE ENE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE EXTENDS FARTHER SOUTH OVER NE FL WITH BREEZY NE WINDS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S OVER
INLAND SE GA TO THE MID/UPPER 50S NE FL WHERE SOME LOW STRATUS AND
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDS NEXT
WEEK AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FORM ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE THAT
MEANDERS OVER NE FL/SE GA THROUGH MID WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN ISENTROPIC RAINFALL EVENT THAT DEVELOPS
LATE SUN AND PERSISTS THROUGH MON AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACKS ENE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA SUN
EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY MON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OF AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO 70-80% SUN NIGHT DUE TO MODEL
AGREEMENT AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER SSW
LATE MON WHICH WILL MODERATE TEMPS A FEW DEG AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISED ISOLATED TSTORMS
SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF TSTORMS OVER
THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY SUN NIGHT WHICH COULD HAVE SOME GUSTY
WINDS GIVEN TRAJECTORY OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY EDGING INLAND
FROM THE GULF COINCIDING WITH ELEVATED 850 MB WINDS PER THE GFS40 OF
30-40 KTS. RAINFALL CHANCES DECREASE NW-SE MON AFTN AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS NE OF THE REGION WHILE TRAILING ITS LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE LOW RAIN CHANCES
INTO MON NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT MILD GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WITH HIGHS SUN & MON IN THE 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH AND
MINS SUN/MON NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S COAST.

.LONG TERM...TUE THROUGH FRI....

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL RETURNS FROM S-N TUE AS STACKED LOW PRESSURE
PHASE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT.
PRE-FRONTAL RAINFALL INCLUDING THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM SW TO NE TUE AFTN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL FILTER OVER THE REGION FOR CHRISTMAS EVE UNDER BREEZY WEST
WINDS WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO VALUES. HIGHS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S BOTH WED AND THU WITH LOWS WED NIGHT/THU
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S RIVER BASIN AND COAST.
FROST NOT LIKELY CHRISTMAS EVE GIVEN ELEVATED WINDS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THU AND FRI
WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL AND THEN BACKING SW INTO THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT VQQ AND GNV FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD APPROACHING SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND BKN HIGH CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE FRIDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM TREKS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GOMEX ACCOMPANIED BY A BOUNDARY WHICH
BECOMES MOSTLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA LATE THIS
WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK.
NORTHERLY SURGE WILL PUSH IN ON SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING
BELOW 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS IN THE OUTER GA WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY WITH A MODERATE RISK
POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  47  61  48 /  20  30  30  20
SSI  63  53  62  51 /  10  10  20  10
JAX  66  49  68  53 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  65  53  68  57 /   0  10  10  10
GNV  69  48  71  55 /   0  10   0   0
OCF  70  49  72  56 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/GUILLET










000
FXUS62 KJAX 190042
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
742 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS NE FL/SE
GA TONIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TO BRING PERIODS OF
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...SO WILL KEEP A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FORECAST
IN PLACE. SEASONABLY COOL MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
INLAND ALONG WITH LOWER/MIDDLE 40S ALONG THE COAST. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA FROM
LIVE OAK/LAKE CITY SOUTHWARD TO GAINESVILLE/OCALA IN THE 3AM-9AM
TIME FRAME. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH HI-RES MODEL VISIBILITY
OUTPUT FROM THE NARRE/HRRR WHICH ARE SHOWING SOME LOW PROBS FOR
DENSE FOG...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST ADD IN A SMALL AREA OF PATCHY
FOG WITH MAINLY 1-5 MILE VSBYS EXPECTED...SIMILAR TO EARLY THIS
MORNING. ON FRIDAY...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS NE FL/SE GA AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SEASONABLE MID DECEMBER TEMPS IN
THE 60S WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT
KGNV/KVQQ AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WITH FLAT CONDS TONIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING TO
THE NORTH AROUND 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY. SEAS GENERALLY 2 FT OR LESS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  39  64  47  62 /   0  10  40  50
SSI  46  63  53  61 /   0  10  20  50
JAX  41  67  50  68 /   0  10  10  30
SGJ  43  65  52  67 /   0   0  10  20
GNV  42  69  48  71 /   0   0  10  20
OCF  40  70  50  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/STRUBLE/WALKER





000
FXUS62 KJAX 190042
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
742 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS NE FL/SE
GA TONIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TO BRING PERIODS OF
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...SO WILL KEEP A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FORECAST
IN PLACE. SEASONABLY COOL MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
INLAND ALONG WITH LOWER/MIDDLE 40S ALONG THE COAST. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA FROM
LIVE OAK/LAKE CITY SOUTHWARD TO GAINESVILLE/OCALA IN THE 3AM-9AM
TIME FRAME. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH HI-RES MODEL VISIBILITY
OUTPUT FROM THE NARRE/HRRR WHICH ARE SHOWING SOME LOW PROBS FOR
DENSE FOG...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST ADD IN A SMALL AREA OF PATCHY
FOG WITH MAINLY 1-5 MILE VSBYS EXPECTED...SIMILAR TO EARLY THIS
MORNING. ON FRIDAY...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS NE FL/SE GA AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SEASONABLE MID DECEMBER TEMPS IN
THE 60S WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT
KGNV/KVQQ AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WITH FLAT CONDS TONIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING TO
THE NORTH AROUND 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY. SEAS GENERALLY 2 FT OR LESS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  39  64  47  62 /   0  10  40  50
SSI  46  63  53  61 /   0  10  20  50
JAX  41  67  50  68 /   0  10  10  30
SGJ  43  65  52  67 /   0   0  10  20
GNV  42  69  48  71 /   0   0  10  20
OCF  40  70  50  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/STRUBLE/WALKER






000
FXUS62 KJAX 181941
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
241 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTN IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES AND A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. THINNING OF THE DECK IS OCCURRING THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA...AND THINK MOST AREAS WILL SEE
JUST SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TNGT...INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL EXIT TO THE NE
FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO VEER TO THE NE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE ON
FRIDAY...PROVIDING FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.
EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TNGT INTO FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDS THICKENING`
AND LOWERING FRIDAY AFTN AS THE LOW/FRONT APPROACH. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE STILL LOOKS QUITE LIMITED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN...SO WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TNGT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S COAST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS SE GA...WITH UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR NE FL.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DEPARTS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOWS IN
THE 40S INLAND...WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING LOWS ALONG THE
COAST IN THE 50S. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR...WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER
70S IN NORTH CENTRAL FL ON SAT AND SUN...WITH 60S FROM THE I-10
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS ON SUN...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER NORTHEAST FL AS ONSHORE WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING AS
THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF COAST.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE AS IT RUNS UP OVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS
BECOME MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LIKELY POPS WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR AREA ON SUN NIGHT AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LIFTS
RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS OVER COOLER AIR. SOME ELEVATED THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE...AND WE ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST GRIDS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT. COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST UP THE ATLANTIC COAST BUT WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PULLING MOISTURE UP
OVER THE AREA AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SFC COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. CURRENT WPC QPF FORECASTS SHOWING RAINFALL TOTALS
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY UP TO 3 INCHES WITH HIGH LEVELS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT FORCING MECHANISMS. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND
DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND. MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S BEFORE COLD
AIR ADVECTION INITIATES ON WEDNESDAY AND TEMPS BEGIN TO DECREASE.
MIN TEMPS WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EACH NIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN COLDER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FOG TNGT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
SLOWLY APPROACHES. LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND STALL ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY/MONDAY...WITH
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  38  65  47  62 /   0  10  40  50
SSI  45  63  53  61 /   0  10  20  50
JAX  42  67  50  68 /   0  10  10  30
SGJ  46  65  52  67 /   0   0  10  20
GNV  42  69  48  71 /   0   0  10  20
OCF  41  70  50  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/NELSON










000
FXUS62 KJAX 181941
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
241 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTN IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES AND A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. THINNING OF THE DECK IS OCCURRING THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA...AND THINK MOST AREAS WILL SEE
JUST SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TNGT...INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL EXIT TO THE NE
FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO VEER TO THE NE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE ON
FRIDAY...PROVIDING FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.
EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TNGT INTO FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDS THICKENING`
AND LOWERING FRIDAY AFTN AS THE LOW/FRONT APPROACH. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE STILL LOOKS QUITE LIMITED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN...SO WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TNGT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S COAST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS SE GA...WITH UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR NE FL.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DEPARTS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOWS IN
THE 40S INLAND...WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING LOWS ALONG THE
COAST IN THE 50S. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR...WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER
70S IN NORTH CENTRAL FL ON SAT AND SUN...WITH 60S FROM THE I-10
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS ON SUN...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER NORTHEAST FL AS ONSHORE WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING AS
THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF COAST.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE AS IT RUNS UP OVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS
BECOME MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LIKELY POPS WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR AREA ON SUN NIGHT AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LIFTS
RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS OVER COOLER AIR. SOME ELEVATED THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE...AND WE ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST GRIDS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT. COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST UP THE ATLANTIC COAST BUT WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PULLING MOISTURE UP
OVER THE AREA AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SFC COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. CURRENT WPC QPF FORECASTS SHOWING RAINFALL TOTALS
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY UP TO 3 INCHES WITH HIGH LEVELS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT FORCING MECHANISMS. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND
DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND. MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S BEFORE COLD
AIR ADVECTION INITIATES ON WEDNESDAY AND TEMPS BEGIN TO DECREASE.
MIN TEMPS WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EACH NIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN COLDER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FOG TNGT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
SLOWLY APPROACHES. LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND STALL ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY/MONDAY...WITH
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  38  65  47  62 /   0  10  40  50
SSI  45  63  53  61 /   0  10  20  50
JAX  42  67  50  68 /   0  10  10  30
SGJ  46  65  52  67 /   0   0  10  20
GNV  42  69  48  71 /   0   0  10  20
OCF  41  70  50  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/NELSON











000
FXUS62 KJAX 181339
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
839 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES CROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.
THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY THIN OUT SOME FOR THIS AFTN AS THE REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN MID LEVEL IMPULSES. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST NOT EXPECTED...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  38  64  49 /   0   0  10  30
SSI  61  44  62  52 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  64  41  66  51 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  64  46  65  55 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  66  40  68  51 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  67  40  70  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KJAX 181339
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
839 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES CROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.
THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY THIN OUT SOME FOR THIS AFTN AS THE REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN MID LEVEL IMPULSES. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST NOT EXPECTED...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  38  64  49 /   0   0  10  30
SSI  61  44  62  52 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  64  41  66  51 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  64  46  65  55 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  66  40  68  51 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  67  40  70  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KJAX 181339
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
839 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES CROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.
THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY THIN OUT SOME FOR THIS AFTN AS THE REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN MID LEVEL IMPULSES. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST NOT EXPECTED...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  38  64  49 /   0   0  10  30
SSI  61  44  62  52 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  64  41  66  51 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  64  46  65  55 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  66  40  68  51 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  67  40  70  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/WALSH








000
FXUS62 KJAX 181339
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
839 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES CROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.
THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY THIN OUT SOME FOR THIS AFTN AS THE REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN MID LEVEL IMPULSES. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST NOT EXPECTED...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  38  64  49 /   0   0  10  30
SSI  61  44  62  52 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  64  41  66  51 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  64  46  65  55 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  66  40  68  51 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  67  40  70  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/WALSH








000
FXUS62 KJAX 180910
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
410 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014


.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE
WRN U.S. WITH DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS TX TO THE TN
VALLEY. WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND JET HELPING TO SPREADING AN OCNL
BROKEN-OVERCAST CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD. SFC HIGH PRES CENTRAL PLAINS
TO CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH LIGHT W TO NW FLOW OVER OUR AREA. TEMPS
ARE IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW UPPER 30S OVER INLAND SE
GA. PATCHY FOG NOTED OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY PER SFC OBS AS PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MASKING ANY LOW CLOUD OR FOG DETECTION. FOG IS ALSO
INDICATED IN LATEST HRRR AND NARRE FCST GUIDANCE FROM AROUND LIVE
OAK TO OCALA. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING
FCST...AND VSBY MAY BE BELOW 1 MI AT TIMES.

.SHORT TERM...FOR TODAY...ONE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EWD FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
DE-AMPLIFYING. WE ANTICIPATE HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH FIRST OF THE HALF OF THE DAY...WITH THINNING OF
CLOUDS IN THE AFTN FROM THE NW TO SE. SFC HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA
WILL ALLOW FOR PREVAILING LIGHT NW TO N WINDS. MAX TEMPS TODAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE BUT PERHAPS A TOUCH BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY. TONIGHT...A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LOCATED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWER CONUS
GENERATING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN GULF. THIS DIGGING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PWATS INCREASING FROM ABOUT HALF AN INCH TO 3/4
OF AN INCH. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SIMILAR
READINGS TO THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. COOLEST
READINGS WELL INTERIOR LOCATIONS. LOCAL TOOLS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
DON`T SUPPORT MENTION OF FOG ATTM.

FRIDAY...STRONG MID AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND ASSOCD SFC LOW PRES WILL MOVE TOWARD THE LA COAST.
SFC HIGH PRES DUE N OF THE AREA WILL OOZE EWD ALLOWING WINDS TO
SLOWLY TURN TO THE NELY BUT LIGHT WIND SPEEDS. THE TAIL END OF A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF SE GA BUT LITTLE SENSIBLE WX
NOTED BESIDES THE WIND SHIFT WITH SLIGHT BUMP IN SPEEDS AND
INCREASED DEWPOINTS. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES INCREASING DURING
THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES FROM THE W AND NW. A SLIGHT
CHANCE AROUND 20 PRCT IS INDICATED OVER OUR FAR NW ZONES AS LIFT
INCREASES IN ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. MAX TEMPS AGAIN
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY IN THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE EXTENDED DRY WEATHER
PERIOD COMES TO A CLOSE AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEX AND TRAVEL EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FL PENINSULA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES...AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT...DURING THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY ACROSS SE GA CLOSEST TO THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING TO
THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL GA. LOWER PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED OVER NE
FL WITH LESS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MINIMUM TEMPS WILL MODERATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS SE GA IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH NE FL WARMING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S WITH A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.


.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....LONG TERM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE AS IT RUNS UP OVER A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BECOME MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ON MONDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LIFTS
RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS OVER COOLER AIR. COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD
DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PULLING MOISTURE UP OVER THE AREA AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AND
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. CURRENT WPC
QPF FORECASTS SHOWING RAINFALL TOTALS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY UP
TO 3 INCHES WITH HIGH LEVELS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT FORCING
MECHANISMS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND. MILD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION INITIATES ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPS BEGIN TO DECREASE. MIN TEMPS WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EACH NIGHT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR BUT BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE AT VQQ.
OCNL CIGS AOA 20 KFT THROUGH 06Z FRI. LIGHT NW TO W WINDS...THOUGH A
WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SSI AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT NLY WINDS AND LOW SEA HEIGHTS. NELY FLOW LIGHT ON FRIDAY AND
SHIFTS TO MORE SLY ON SAT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND STALL ACROSS THE WATERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAKING FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W BY
TUESDAY. STILL CAN`T TOTALLY DISCOUNT A CHANCE OF SEA FOG EARLY SAT
MORNING AND/OR SAT EVENING AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE AS FLOW TURNS TO NE
AND SE BUT POTENTIAL SEEMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  38  64  49 /   0   0  10  30
SSI  61  44  62  52 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  64  41  66  51 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  64  46  65  55 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  66  40  68  51 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  67  40  70  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

GUILLET/SHASHY/








000
FXUS62 KJAX 180910
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
410 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014


.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE
WRN U.S. WITH DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS TX TO THE TN
VALLEY. WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND JET HELPING TO SPREADING AN OCNL
BROKEN-OVERCAST CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD. SFC HIGH PRES CENTRAL PLAINS
TO CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH LIGHT W TO NW FLOW OVER OUR AREA. TEMPS
ARE IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW UPPER 30S OVER INLAND SE
GA. PATCHY FOG NOTED OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY PER SFC OBS AS PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MASKING ANY LOW CLOUD OR FOG DETECTION. FOG IS ALSO
INDICATED IN LATEST HRRR AND NARRE FCST GUIDANCE FROM AROUND LIVE
OAK TO OCALA. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING
FCST...AND VSBY MAY BE BELOW 1 MI AT TIMES.

.SHORT TERM...FOR TODAY...ONE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EWD FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
DE-AMPLIFYING. WE ANTICIPATE HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH FIRST OF THE HALF OF THE DAY...WITH THINNING OF
CLOUDS IN THE AFTN FROM THE NW TO SE. SFC HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA
WILL ALLOW FOR PREVAILING LIGHT NW TO N WINDS. MAX TEMPS TODAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE BUT PERHAPS A TOUCH BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY. TONIGHT...A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LOCATED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWER CONUS
GENERATING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN GULF. THIS DIGGING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PWATS INCREASING FROM ABOUT HALF AN INCH TO 3/4
OF AN INCH. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SIMILAR
READINGS TO THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. COOLEST
READINGS WELL INTERIOR LOCATIONS. LOCAL TOOLS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
DON`T SUPPORT MENTION OF FOG ATTM.

FRIDAY...STRONG MID AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND ASSOCD SFC LOW PRES WILL MOVE TOWARD THE LA COAST.
SFC HIGH PRES DUE N OF THE AREA WILL OOZE EWD ALLOWING WINDS TO
SLOWLY TURN TO THE NELY BUT LIGHT WIND SPEEDS. THE TAIL END OF A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF SE GA BUT LITTLE SENSIBLE WX
NOTED BESIDES THE WIND SHIFT WITH SLIGHT BUMP IN SPEEDS AND
INCREASED DEWPOINTS. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES INCREASING DURING
THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES FROM THE W AND NW. A SLIGHT
CHANCE AROUND 20 PRCT IS INDICATED OVER OUR FAR NW ZONES AS LIFT
INCREASES IN ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. MAX TEMPS AGAIN
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY IN THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE EXTENDED DRY WEATHER
PERIOD COMES TO A CLOSE AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEX AND TRAVEL EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FL PENINSULA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES...AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT...DURING THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY ACROSS SE GA CLOSEST TO THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING TO
THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL GA. LOWER PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED OVER NE
FL WITH LESS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MINIMUM TEMPS WILL MODERATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS SE GA IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH NE FL WARMING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S WITH A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.


.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....LONG TERM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE AS IT RUNS UP OVER A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BECOME MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ON MONDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LIFTS
RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS OVER COOLER AIR. COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD
DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PULLING MOISTURE UP OVER THE AREA AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AND
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. CURRENT WPC
QPF FORECASTS SHOWING RAINFALL TOTALS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY UP
TO 3 INCHES WITH HIGH LEVELS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT FORCING
MECHANISMS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND. MILD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION INITIATES ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPS BEGIN TO DECREASE. MIN TEMPS WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EACH NIGHT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR BUT BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE AT VQQ.
OCNL CIGS AOA 20 KFT THROUGH 06Z FRI. LIGHT NW TO W WINDS...THOUGH A
WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SSI AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT NLY WINDS AND LOW SEA HEIGHTS. NELY FLOW LIGHT ON FRIDAY AND
SHIFTS TO MORE SLY ON SAT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND STALL ACROSS THE WATERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAKING FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W BY
TUESDAY. STILL CAN`T TOTALLY DISCOUNT A CHANCE OF SEA FOG EARLY SAT
MORNING AND/OR SAT EVENING AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE AS FLOW TURNS TO NE
AND SE BUT POTENTIAL SEEMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  38  64  49 /   0   0  10  30
SSI  61  44  62  52 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  64  41  66  51 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  64  46  65  55 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  66  40  68  51 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  67  40  70  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

GUILLET/SHASHY/







000
FXUS62 KJAX 180910
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
410 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014


.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE
WRN U.S. WITH DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS TX TO THE TN
VALLEY. WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND JET HELPING TO SPREADING AN OCNL
BROKEN-OVERCAST CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD. SFC HIGH PRES CENTRAL PLAINS
TO CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH LIGHT W TO NW FLOW OVER OUR AREA. TEMPS
ARE IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW UPPER 30S OVER INLAND SE
GA. PATCHY FOG NOTED OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY PER SFC OBS AS PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MASKING ANY LOW CLOUD OR FOG DETECTION. FOG IS ALSO
INDICATED IN LATEST HRRR AND NARRE FCST GUIDANCE FROM AROUND LIVE
OAK TO OCALA. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING
FCST...AND VSBY MAY BE BELOW 1 MI AT TIMES.

.SHORT TERM...FOR TODAY...ONE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EWD FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
DE-AMPLIFYING. WE ANTICIPATE HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH FIRST OF THE HALF OF THE DAY...WITH THINNING OF
CLOUDS IN THE AFTN FROM THE NW TO SE. SFC HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA
WILL ALLOW FOR PREVAILING LIGHT NW TO N WINDS. MAX TEMPS TODAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE BUT PERHAPS A TOUCH BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY. TONIGHT...A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LOCATED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWER CONUS
GENERATING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN GULF. THIS DIGGING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PWATS INCREASING FROM ABOUT HALF AN INCH TO 3/4
OF AN INCH. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SIMILAR
READINGS TO THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. COOLEST
READINGS WELL INTERIOR LOCATIONS. LOCAL TOOLS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
DON`T SUPPORT MENTION OF FOG ATTM.

FRIDAY...STRONG MID AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND ASSOCD SFC LOW PRES WILL MOVE TOWARD THE LA COAST.
SFC HIGH PRES DUE N OF THE AREA WILL OOZE EWD ALLOWING WINDS TO
SLOWLY TURN TO THE NELY BUT LIGHT WIND SPEEDS. THE TAIL END OF A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF SE GA BUT LITTLE SENSIBLE WX
NOTED BESIDES THE WIND SHIFT WITH SLIGHT BUMP IN SPEEDS AND
INCREASED DEWPOINTS. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES INCREASING DURING
THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES FROM THE W AND NW. A SLIGHT
CHANCE AROUND 20 PRCT IS INDICATED OVER OUR FAR NW ZONES AS LIFT
INCREASES IN ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. MAX TEMPS AGAIN
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY IN THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE EXTENDED DRY WEATHER
PERIOD COMES TO A CLOSE AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEX AND TRAVEL EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FL PENINSULA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES...AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT...DURING THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY ACROSS SE GA CLOSEST TO THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING TO
THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL GA. LOWER PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED OVER NE
FL WITH LESS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MINIMUM TEMPS WILL MODERATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS SE GA IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH NE FL WARMING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S WITH A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.


.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....LONG TERM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE AS IT RUNS UP OVER A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BECOME MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ON MONDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LIFTS
RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS OVER COOLER AIR. COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD
DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PULLING MOISTURE UP OVER THE AREA AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AND
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. CURRENT WPC
QPF FORECASTS SHOWING RAINFALL TOTALS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY UP
TO 3 INCHES WITH HIGH LEVELS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT FORCING
MECHANISMS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND. MILD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION INITIATES ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPS BEGIN TO DECREASE. MIN TEMPS WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EACH NIGHT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR BUT BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE AT VQQ.
OCNL CIGS AOA 20 KFT THROUGH 06Z FRI. LIGHT NW TO W WINDS...THOUGH A
WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SSI AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT NLY WINDS AND LOW SEA HEIGHTS. NELY FLOW LIGHT ON FRIDAY AND
SHIFTS TO MORE SLY ON SAT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND STALL ACROSS THE WATERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAKING FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W BY
TUESDAY. STILL CAN`T TOTALLY DISCOUNT A CHANCE OF SEA FOG EARLY SAT
MORNING AND/OR SAT EVENING AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE AS FLOW TURNS TO NE
AND SE BUT POTENTIAL SEEMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  38  64  49 /   0   0  10  30
SSI  61  44  62  52 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  64  41  66  51 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  64  46  65  55 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  66  40  68  51 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  67  40  70  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

GUILLET/SHASHY/








000
FXUS62 KJAX 180910
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
410 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014


.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE
WRN U.S. WITH DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS TX TO THE TN
VALLEY. WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND JET HELPING TO SPREADING AN OCNL
BROKEN-OVERCAST CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD. SFC HIGH PRES CENTRAL PLAINS
TO CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH LIGHT W TO NW FLOW OVER OUR AREA. TEMPS
ARE IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW UPPER 30S OVER INLAND SE
GA. PATCHY FOG NOTED OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY PER SFC OBS AS PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MASKING ANY LOW CLOUD OR FOG DETECTION. FOG IS ALSO
INDICATED IN LATEST HRRR AND NARRE FCST GUIDANCE FROM AROUND LIVE
OAK TO OCALA. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING
FCST...AND VSBY MAY BE BELOW 1 MI AT TIMES.

.SHORT TERM...FOR TODAY...ONE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EWD FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
DE-AMPLIFYING. WE ANTICIPATE HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH FIRST OF THE HALF OF THE DAY...WITH THINNING OF
CLOUDS IN THE AFTN FROM THE NW TO SE. SFC HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA
WILL ALLOW FOR PREVAILING LIGHT NW TO N WINDS. MAX TEMPS TODAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE BUT PERHAPS A TOUCH BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY. TONIGHT...A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LOCATED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWER CONUS
GENERATING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN GULF. THIS DIGGING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PWATS INCREASING FROM ABOUT HALF AN INCH TO 3/4
OF AN INCH. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SIMILAR
READINGS TO THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. COOLEST
READINGS WELL INTERIOR LOCATIONS. LOCAL TOOLS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
DON`T SUPPORT MENTION OF FOG ATTM.

FRIDAY...STRONG MID AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND ASSOCD SFC LOW PRES WILL MOVE TOWARD THE LA COAST.
SFC HIGH PRES DUE N OF THE AREA WILL OOZE EWD ALLOWING WINDS TO
SLOWLY TURN TO THE NELY BUT LIGHT WIND SPEEDS. THE TAIL END OF A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF SE GA BUT LITTLE SENSIBLE WX
NOTED BESIDES THE WIND SHIFT WITH SLIGHT BUMP IN SPEEDS AND
INCREASED DEWPOINTS. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES INCREASING DURING
THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES FROM THE W AND NW. A SLIGHT
CHANCE AROUND 20 PRCT IS INDICATED OVER OUR FAR NW ZONES AS LIFT
INCREASES IN ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. MAX TEMPS AGAIN
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY IN THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE EXTENDED DRY WEATHER
PERIOD COMES TO A CLOSE AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEX AND TRAVEL EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FL PENINSULA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES...AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT...DURING THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY ACROSS SE GA CLOSEST TO THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING TO
THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL GA. LOWER PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED OVER NE
FL WITH LESS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MINIMUM TEMPS WILL MODERATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS SE GA IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH NE FL WARMING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S WITH A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.


.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....LONG TERM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE AS IT RUNS UP OVER A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BECOME MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ON MONDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LIFTS
RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS OVER COOLER AIR. COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD
DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PULLING MOISTURE UP OVER THE AREA AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AND
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. CURRENT WPC
QPF FORECASTS SHOWING RAINFALL TOTALS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY UP
TO 3 INCHES WITH HIGH LEVELS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT FORCING
MECHANISMS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND. MILD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION INITIATES ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPS BEGIN TO DECREASE. MIN TEMPS WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EACH NIGHT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR BUT BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE AT VQQ.
OCNL CIGS AOA 20 KFT THROUGH 06Z FRI. LIGHT NW TO W WINDS...THOUGH A
WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SSI AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT NLY WINDS AND LOW SEA HEIGHTS. NELY FLOW LIGHT ON FRIDAY AND
SHIFTS TO MORE SLY ON SAT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND STALL ACROSS THE WATERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAKING FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W BY
TUESDAY. STILL CAN`T TOTALLY DISCOUNT A CHANCE OF SEA FOG EARLY SAT
MORNING AND/OR SAT EVENING AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE AS FLOW TURNS TO NE
AND SE BUT POTENTIAL SEEMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  38  64  49 /   0   0  10  30
SSI  61  44  62  52 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  64  41  66  51 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  64  46  65  55 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  66  40  68  51 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  67  40  70  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

GUILLET/SHASHY/







000
FXUS62 KJAX 180219
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
919 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLOWLY NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL TRIGGER PERIODS
OF HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. AT THE SURFACE...A COOL AND MOIST
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 DEGREES INLAND BUT
LIKELY NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR FROST FORMATION...BUT WITH CURRENT
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S...AND EXPECTED LOW TEMPS TO
CROSS-OVER BELOW THESE VALUES IN MOST LOCATIONS...FOG WOULD
NORMALLY BE EXPECTED...BUT SOME NEGATING FACTORS ARE THE PERIODS
OF HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW...TAKING A LOOK AT SHORT
TERM HI-RES MODELS (NARRE/HRRR) BOTH SHOW AREAS OF FOG FORMING
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF NE FL FROM LIVE OAK SOUTHWARD TO
GAINESVILLE/OCALA...WHERE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL ALONG WITH
NEAR CALM WINDS...FOR NOW HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS/ZFP
IN THESE LOCATIONS AND HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE HWO
DUE TO THE MODERATE-HIGH PROBS OF THIS POSSIBILITY AS DEPICTED IN
THE NARRE/HRRR MODEL RUNS. TIMING OF FOG WILL BE JUST AROUND THE
SUNRISE HOUR. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
POTENTIAL FOG AT KGNV/KVQQ AROUND SUNRISE IN THE NEXT TAF CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SEAS 1-3 FT INTO THURSDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  37  63  41  64 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  43  62  47  61 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  39  64  45  66 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  41  63  50  65 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  37  65  44  68 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  39  67  44  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/STRUBLE/WALKER






000
FXUS62 KJAX 180219
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
919 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLOWLY NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL TRIGGER PERIODS
OF HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. AT THE SURFACE...A COOL AND MOIST
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 DEGREES INLAND BUT
LIKELY NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR FROST FORMATION...BUT WITH CURRENT
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S...AND EXPECTED LOW TEMPS TO
CROSS-OVER BELOW THESE VALUES IN MOST LOCATIONS...FOG WOULD
NORMALLY BE EXPECTED...BUT SOME NEGATING FACTORS ARE THE PERIODS
OF HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW...TAKING A LOOK AT SHORT
TERM HI-RES MODELS (NARRE/HRRR) BOTH SHOW AREAS OF FOG FORMING
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF NE FL FROM LIVE OAK SOUTHWARD TO
GAINESVILLE/OCALA...WHERE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL ALONG WITH
NEAR CALM WINDS...FOR NOW HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS/ZFP
IN THESE LOCATIONS AND HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE HWO
DUE TO THE MODERATE-HIGH PROBS OF THIS POSSIBILITY AS DEPICTED IN
THE NARRE/HRRR MODEL RUNS. TIMING OF FOG WILL BE JUST AROUND THE
SUNRISE HOUR. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
POTENTIAL FOG AT KGNV/KVQQ AROUND SUNRISE IN THE NEXT TAF CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SEAS 1-3 FT INTO THURSDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  37  63  41  64 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  43  62  47  61 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  39  64  45  66 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  41  63  50  65 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  37  65  44  68 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  39  67  44  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/STRUBLE/WALKER





000
FXUS62 KJAX 171959
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
259 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.CURRENTLY...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAKENING AND STALLING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE (1031
MILLIBARS) WAS CENTERED OVER MIDWESTERN STATES AND PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS LOCALLY...AS OUR REGION IS BETWEEN A ROBUST RIDGE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES STATES. FAIR SKIES PREVAIL OVER OUR AREA...COMPLIMENTS OF A
VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT AS DISPLAYED BY THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT
JACKSONVILLE AND TALLAHASSEE. TEMPERATURES INLAND WERE NEAR
CLIMO...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST...WHERE LOWER 60S WERE
OBSERVED. DEWPOINTS AT 19Z RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID
40S.

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH TONIGHT)...
A CIRRUS SHIELD PROGRESSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE ZONAL
FLOW...CURRENTLY SPREADING INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
GA...WILL ADVECT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING. THESE CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL ONLY TEMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING SLIGHTLY...AS LOWS
FALL TO BELOW MID-DECEMBER CLIMO...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED
INLAND...RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S AT THE COAST. FROST FORMATION IS
NOT EXPECTED INLAND...AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA THROUGH EASTERN
CONUS INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT NWLY TO NLY WINDS
DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. UPSTREAM TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE U.S ALLOWING HIGH CIRROFORM CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE ZONAL
FLOW WITH MAINLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH MINIMUMS NEAR 50 AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
MOISTEN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE DEBILITATED WITH THE BEST ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GA, TENNESSEE, AND CAROLINAS. LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TRACK EASTWARD ALONG GULF COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION DECREASES IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
OVER OUR AREA...HAVE POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHEST POPS NW TO LOWEST
POPS SE SAT NIGHT...THEN LOWEST NW/HIGHEST SE SUNDAY.

A DEEP SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU THE COLUMN THAT WILL GENERATE GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ALONG/NORTH OF SHALLOW
FRONT WILL BRING DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN MOST AREAS MONDAY. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT THAT STALLS OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY
WILL PUSH PUSHING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT BY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE WEAKENED BOUNDARY AND MOVE EAST...WITH THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFIED CENTRAL CONUS LONG WAVE TROF AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE RAINFALL EVENT AND QPF FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA MON/TUE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR T-STORMS WITH COLD
FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN STRONG NEGATIVELY-
TILTED TROF AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL
PREVAIL FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 3000 FEET.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS OF
NEAR OR LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BECOMING ONSHORE ON FRIDAY. SOME PATCHY
SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT
SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY RISE UP TO AROUND 60-62 DEGREES OVER WATER
TEMPS THAT ARE IN THE UPPER 50S BUT TOO EARLY TO INCLUDE IN THE
CURRENT FCSTS. THEN...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND STALL ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...BEFORE MOVING NORTH OF THE WATERS AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  37  64  41  64 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  41  61  47  61 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  37  65  45  66 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  42  65  50  65 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  37  67  44  68 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  38  68  44  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/CORDERO/WALKER








000
FXUS62 KJAX 171959
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
259 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.CURRENTLY...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAKENING AND STALLING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE (1031
MILLIBARS) WAS CENTERED OVER MIDWESTERN STATES AND PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS LOCALLY...AS OUR REGION IS BETWEEN A ROBUST RIDGE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES STATES. FAIR SKIES PREVAIL OVER OUR AREA...COMPLIMENTS OF A
VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT AS DISPLAYED BY THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT
JACKSONVILLE AND TALLAHASSEE. TEMPERATURES INLAND WERE NEAR
CLIMO...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST...WHERE LOWER 60S WERE
OBSERVED. DEWPOINTS AT 19Z RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID
40S.

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH TONIGHT)...
A CIRRUS SHIELD PROGRESSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE ZONAL
FLOW...CURRENTLY SPREADING INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
GA...WILL ADVECT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING. THESE CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL ONLY TEMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING SLIGHTLY...AS LOWS
FALL TO BELOW MID-DECEMBER CLIMO...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED
INLAND...RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S AT THE COAST. FROST FORMATION IS
NOT EXPECTED INLAND...AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA THROUGH EASTERN
CONUS INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT NWLY TO NLY WINDS
DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. UPSTREAM TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE U.S ALLOWING HIGH CIRROFORM CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE ZONAL
FLOW WITH MAINLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH MINIMUMS NEAR 50 AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
MOISTEN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE DEBILITATED WITH THE BEST ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GA, TENNESSEE, AND CAROLINAS. LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TRACK EASTWARD ALONG GULF COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION DECREASES IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
OVER OUR AREA...HAVE POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHEST POPS NW TO LOWEST
POPS SE SAT NIGHT...THEN LOWEST NW/HIGHEST SE SUNDAY.

A DEEP SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU THE COLUMN THAT WILL GENERATE GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ALONG/NORTH OF SHALLOW
FRONT WILL BRING DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN MOST AREAS MONDAY. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT THAT STALLS OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY
WILL PUSH PUSHING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT BY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE WEAKENED BOUNDARY AND MOVE EAST...WITH THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFIED CENTRAL CONUS LONG WAVE TROF AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE RAINFALL EVENT AND QPF FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA MON/TUE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR T-STORMS WITH COLD
FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN STRONG NEGATIVELY-
TILTED TROF AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL
PREVAIL FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 3000 FEET.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS OF
NEAR OR LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BECOMING ONSHORE ON FRIDAY. SOME PATCHY
SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT
SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY RISE UP TO AROUND 60-62 DEGREES OVER WATER
TEMPS THAT ARE IN THE UPPER 50S BUT TOO EARLY TO INCLUDE IN THE
CURRENT FCSTS. THEN...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND STALL ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...BEFORE MOVING NORTH OF THE WATERS AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  37  64  41  64 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  41  61  47  61 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  37  65  45  66 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  42  65  50  65 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  37  67  44  68 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  38  68  44  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/CORDERO/WALKER









    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities