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000
FXUS62 KJAX 291922
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN
PERSISTS...

.CURRENTLY...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS ATLANTIC RIDGING (1025
MILLIBARS) EXTENDING ITS AXIS WESTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS. TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS...A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD INTO OUR OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS...GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS. ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING BLANKETS THE U.S. EASTERN
SEABOARD. VERY DRY AIR LAYER ABOVE 850 MILLIBARS (5000 FEET) IS
DISSOLVING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE...BREEZY EAST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS
FALLING TO NEAR 60 INLAND ARE MAKING FOR A PLEASANT LATE MAY
AFTERNOON.

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AS THE WEAK EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES THE COAST LATER THIS
EVENING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM EAST TO
WEST...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO REACH THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EARLY
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY BRIEF
AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY...WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PUSH INLAND PAST THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE...WITH HIGH-END SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE WAVE AXIS MOVES INLAND AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. OTHERWISE...FAIR SKIES THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW LOWS INLAND TO
FALL INTO THE MID 60S...WITH ONSHORE WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS
KEEPING LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND EXTENDING TO U.S. HIGHWAY
301 EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL PROGRESS INLAND AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS MOISTURE LEVELS DEEPEN AND
CONDITIONS ALOFT DESTABILIZE. COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 301...AS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ADVECTS TOWARDS TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THIS
PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN...WITH UPPER 80S EXPECTED INLAND AND
LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL ERODE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
LOCALLY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST...WITH EVENING CONVECTION OVER
THE I-75 CORRIDOR PROGRESSING WESTWARD AWAY FROM OUR REGION ON
SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDELY SCATTERED COASTAL
SHOWERS...PERHAPS CONTAINING A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK
EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE ONSHORE DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS ON SUNDAY. A VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY KEEP LOWS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY ONSHORE FLOW WILL FACILITATE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
AS IT MOVES INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY INITIATING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PROGRESSES. HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL US AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY WITH INITIATION DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES NEAR 1-75 IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID 80S
ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF TO OUR EAST IN THE
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ITS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST LATE ON
WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TUES AND WEDS WILL ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN COASTAL AREAS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INLAND AREAS
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO EACH EVENING.
TEMPS TUES AND WEDS WILL REACH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST IN THE LOW 80S.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PEAKING DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON EACH DAY...AS MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRESS
CLOSER TO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH
PRESSING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z. A FEW BRIEF AND
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT SGJ TOWARDS 00Z...AND THEN AT THE
DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND SSI TOWARDS 09Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
BETWEEN 2000-3000 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THESE TERMINALS AFTER
09Z. WE WILL MAINTAIN VCSH IN THESE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY DUE
TO EXPECTED BRIEF DURATION AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AT SSI...CRG...AND SGJ
ON SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT
THE GNV TERMINAL AFTER 17Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 15 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND WILL THEN
TURN TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...WHICH SHOULD ALSO CREATE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF CAUTION LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW CAUTION LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY
IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SEAS FALLING BACK TO THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE.

RIP CURRENTS: A LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  87  69  89 /   0  40  10  30
SSI  73  82  72  83 /  50  50  30  20
JAX  68  85  70  87 /  40  50  20  20
SGJ  73  83  72  84 /  50  50  30  20
GNV  66  89  67  91 /   0  40  30  40
OCF  68  89  69  91 /   0  50  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/GUILLET/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 291922
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN
PERSISTS...

.CURRENTLY...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS ATLANTIC RIDGING (1025
MILLIBARS) EXTENDING ITS AXIS WESTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS. TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS...A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD INTO OUR OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS...GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS. ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING BLANKETS THE U.S. EASTERN
SEABOARD. VERY DRY AIR LAYER ABOVE 850 MILLIBARS (5000 FEET) IS
DISSOLVING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE...BREEZY EAST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS
FALLING TO NEAR 60 INLAND ARE MAKING FOR A PLEASANT LATE MAY
AFTERNOON.

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AS THE WEAK EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES THE COAST LATER THIS
EVENING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM EAST TO
WEST...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO REACH THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EARLY
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY BRIEF
AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY...WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PUSH INLAND PAST THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE...WITH HIGH-END SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE WAVE AXIS MOVES INLAND AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. OTHERWISE...FAIR SKIES THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW LOWS INLAND TO
FALL INTO THE MID 60S...WITH ONSHORE WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS
KEEPING LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND EXTENDING TO U.S. HIGHWAY
301 EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL PROGRESS INLAND AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS MOISTURE LEVELS DEEPEN AND
CONDITIONS ALOFT DESTABILIZE. COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 301...AS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ADVECTS TOWARDS TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THIS
PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN...WITH UPPER 80S EXPECTED INLAND AND
LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL ERODE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
LOCALLY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST...WITH EVENING CONVECTION OVER
THE I-75 CORRIDOR PROGRESSING WESTWARD AWAY FROM OUR REGION ON
SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDELY SCATTERED COASTAL
SHOWERS...PERHAPS CONTAINING A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK
EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE ONSHORE DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS ON SUNDAY. A VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY KEEP LOWS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY ONSHORE FLOW WILL FACILITATE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
AS IT MOVES INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY INITIATING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PROGRESSES. HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL US AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY WITH INITIATION DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES NEAR 1-75 IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID 80S
ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF TO OUR EAST IN THE
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ITS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST LATE ON
WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TUES AND WEDS WILL ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN COASTAL AREAS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INLAND AREAS
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO EACH EVENING.
TEMPS TUES AND WEDS WILL REACH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST IN THE LOW 80S.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PEAKING DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON EACH DAY...AS MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRESS
CLOSER TO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH
PRESSING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z. A FEW BRIEF AND
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT SGJ TOWARDS 00Z...AND THEN AT THE
DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND SSI TOWARDS 09Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
BETWEEN 2000-3000 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THESE TERMINALS AFTER
09Z. WE WILL MAINTAIN VCSH IN THESE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY DUE
TO EXPECTED BRIEF DURATION AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AT SSI...CRG...AND SGJ
ON SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT
THE GNV TERMINAL AFTER 17Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 15 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND WILL THEN
TURN TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...WHICH SHOULD ALSO CREATE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF CAUTION LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW CAUTION LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY
IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SEAS FALLING BACK TO THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE.

RIP CURRENTS: A LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  87  69  89 /   0  40  10  30
SSI  73  82  72  83 /  50  50  30  20
JAX  68  85  70  87 /  40  50  20  20
SGJ  73  83  72  84 /  50  50  30  20
GNV  66  89  67  91 /   0  40  30  40
OCF  68  89  69  91 /   0  50  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/GUILLET/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 291525
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1125 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS ATLANTIC RIDGING IN CONTROL
OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN...WITH A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BELOW 750
MILLIBARS (8500 FEET) PER THE MORNING SOUNDING AT JACKSONVILLE
CREATING A FLAT CUMULUS FIELD OVER OUR REGION. A WEAK EASTERLY
WAVE WAS PROGRESSING WESTWARD TOWARDS OUR OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS.
ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET ALONG THE
COAST AS THE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSOLVE DUE TO A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 850 MILLIBARS (5000 FEET).
WILL LEAVE ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR FLAGLER COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY EAST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE
THIS A PLEASANT LATE MAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 IN
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND REMAINING IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL
COUNTIES TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE WAVE/WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z. A FEW BRIEF AND
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT SGJ TOWARDS 00Z...AND THEN AT THE
DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND SSI TOWARDS 09Z. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH IN
THE TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED BRIEF DURATION AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL APPROACH 15 KNOTS AT SSI...CRG...AND
SGJ THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 15 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND WILL THEN TURN TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS...WHICH SHOULD ALSO CREATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CAUTION LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CAUTION
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE.

RIP CURRENTS: A LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  66  89  68 /   0  10  30  10
SSI  82  73  83  73 /  10  30  40  20
JAX  86  68  87  70 /  10  30  40  20
SGJ  83  73  84  72 /  10  30  40  20
GNV  89  66  89  69 /  10  10  40  20
OCF  90  68  90  69 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/GUILLET/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 291525
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1125 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS ATLANTIC RIDGING IN CONTROL
OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN...WITH A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BELOW 750
MILLIBARS (8500 FEET) PER THE MORNING SOUNDING AT JACKSONVILLE
CREATING A FLAT CUMULUS FIELD OVER OUR REGION. A WEAK EASTERLY
WAVE WAS PROGRESSING WESTWARD TOWARDS OUR OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS.
ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET ALONG THE
COAST AS THE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSOLVE DUE TO A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 850 MILLIBARS (5000 FEET).
WILL LEAVE ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR FLAGLER COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY EAST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE
THIS A PLEASANT LATE MAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 IN
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND REMAINING IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL
COUNTIES TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE WAVE/WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z. A FEW BRIEF AND
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT SGJ TOWARDS 00Z...AND THEN AT THE
DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND SSI TOWARDS 09Z. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH IN
THE TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED BRIEF DURATION AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL APPROACH 15 KNOTS AT SSI...CRG...AND
SGJ THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 15 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND WILL THEN TURN TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS...WHICH SHOULD ALSO CREATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CAUTION LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CAUTION
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE.

RIP CURRENTS: A LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  66  89  68 /   0  10  30  10
SSI  82  73  83  73 /  10  30  40  20
JAX  86  68  87  70 /  10  30  40  20
SGJ  83  73  84  72 /  10  30  40  20
GNV  89  66  89  69 /  10  10  40  20
OCF  90  68  90  69 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/GUILLET/WALKER





000
FXUS62 KJAX 291525
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1125 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS ATLANTIC RIDGING IN CONTROL
OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN...WITH A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BELOW 750
MILLIBARS (8500 FEET) PER THE MORNING SOUNDING AT JACKSONVILLE
CREATING A FLAT CUMULUS FIELD OVER OUR REGION. A WEAK EASTERLY
WAVE WAS PROGRESSING WESTWARD TOWARDS OUR OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS.
ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET ALONG THE
COAST AS THE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSOLVE DUE TO A VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 850 MILLIBARS (5000 FEET).
WILL LEAVE ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR FLAGLER COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY EAST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE
THIS A PLEASANT LATE MAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 IN
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND REMAINING IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL
COUNTIES TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE WAVE/WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z. A FEW BRIEF AND
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT SGJ TOWARDS 00Z...AND THEN AT THE
DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND SSI TOWARDS 09Z. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH IN
THE TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED BRIEF DURATION AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL APPROACH 15 KNOTS AT SSI...CRG...AND
SGJ THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 15 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND WILL THEN TURN TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS...WHICH SHOULD ALSO CREATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CAUTION LEVEL WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW CAUTION
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE.

RIP CURRENTS: A LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  66  89  68 /   0  10  30  10
SSI  82  73  83  73 /  10  30  40  20
JAX  86  68  87  70 /  10  30  40  20
SGJ  83  73  84  72 /  10  30  40  20
GNV  89  66  89  69 /  10  10  40  20
OCF  90  68  90  69 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/GUILLET/WALKER





000
FXUS62 KJAX 290749
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
349 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL OVERNIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. MODELS ARE TRENDING QUITE A BIT DRIER TODAY WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING OFFSHORE AND LOWER IN COVERAGE THAN
DEPICTED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. GIVEN LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE STILL
OVER THE AREA...WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY TODAY/TNGT...WITH A
SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLY MAKING IT ONSHORE FROM SAINT AUGUSTINE
SOUTHWARD. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE AT A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS UP
SLIGHTLY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 80S COAST TO
THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND
MORE MOIST AIR...LOWS TNGT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER THAN THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...WITH READINGS IN` THE MID 60S FAR INLAND...WITH UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A COASTAL TROUGH
MOVES WEST ACROSS THE AREA. MID/HIGH END CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
MORNING NEAR THE COAST WILL MIGRATE INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS DYNAMICS WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIT TO THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING RAIN-FREE SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RESULT IN MUGGIER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH...ALBEIT
WEAK...WILL APPROACH THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO
INLAND AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO FAVOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST
WILL INITIALLY REMAIN LOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ONLY A FEW
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FURTHER INLAND...SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
ATLANTIC COAST SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
THE COAST A LITTLE MILDER WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN CONTROL...WE WILL
START TO FEEL THE EASTERN FRINGES OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL BOOST RAIN CHANCES INTO THE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CATEGORY AREA WIDE. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER/INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO SERVE TO CUT BACK ON HIGH TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S EVERYWHERE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME BRIEF
PATCHES OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT VQQ 08-12Z. EAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 9-13 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
E/NE WINDS TODAY WILL TURN TO THE E/SE SATURDAY...AND TO THE SE
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  67  89  68 /   0  10  30  10
SSI  82  73  83  73 /  10  30  40  20
JAX  87  70  87  70 /  10  30  40  20
SGJ  83  74  84  72 /  10  30  40  20
GNV  90  69  89  69 /  10  10  40  20
OCF  90  69  90  69 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/SHULER/




000
FXUS62 KJAX 290749
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
349 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL OVERNIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. MODELS ARE TRENDING QUITE A BIT DRIER TODAY WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING OFFSHORE AND LOWER IN COVERAGE THAN
DEPICTED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. GIVEN LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE STILL
OVER THE AREA...WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY TODAY/TNGT...WITH A
SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLY MAKING IT ONSHORE FROM SAINT AUGUSTINE
SOUTHWARD. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE AT A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS UP
SLIGHTLY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 80S COAST TO
THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND
MORE MOIST AIR...LOWS TNGT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER THAN THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...WITH READINGS IN` THE MID 60S FAR INLAND...WITH UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A COASTAL TROUGH
MOVES WEST ACROSS THE AREA. MID/HIGH END CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
MORNING NEAR THE COAST WILL MIGRATE INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS DYNAMICS WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIT TO THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING RAIN-FREE SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RESULT IN MUGGIER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH...ALBEIT
WEAK...WILL APPROACH THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO
INLAND AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO FAVOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST
WILL INITIALLY REMAIN LOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ONLY A FEW
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FURTHER INLAND...SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
ATLANTIC COAST SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
THE COAST A LITTLE MILDER WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN CONTROL...WE WILL
START TO FEEL THE EASTERN FRINGES OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL BOOST RAIN CHANCES INTO THE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CATEGORY AREA WIDE. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER/INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO SERVE TO CUT BACK ON HIGH TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S EVERYWHERE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME BRIEF
PATCHES OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT VQQ 08-12Z. EAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 9-13 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
E/NE WINDS TODAY WILL TURN TO THE E/SE SATURDAY...AND TO THE SE
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  67  89  68 /   0  10  30  10
SSI  82  73  83  73 /  10  30  40  20
JAX  87  70  87  70 /  10  30  40  20
SGJ  83  74  84  72 /  10  30  40  20
GNV  90  69  89  69 /  10  10  40  20
OCF  90  69  90  69 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/SHULER/




000
FXUS62 KJAX 290749
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
349 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL OVERNIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. MODELS ARE TRENDING QUITE A BIT DRIER TODAY WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING OFFSHORE AND LOWER IN COVERAGE THAN
DEPICTED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. GIVEN LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE STILL
OVER THE AREA...WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY TODAY/TNGT...WITH A
SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLY MAKING IT ONSHORE FROM SAINT AUGUSTINE
SOUTHWARD. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE AT A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS UP
SLIGHTLY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 80S COAST TO
THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND
MORE MOIST AIR...LOWS TNGT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER THAN THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...WITH READINGS IN` THE MID 60S FAR INLAND...WITH UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A COASTAL TROUGH
MOVES WEST ACROSS THE AREA. MID/HIGH END CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
MORNING NEAR THE COAST WILL MIGRATE INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS DYNAMICS WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIT TO THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING RAIN-FREE SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RESULT IN MUGGIER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH...ALBEIT
WEAK...WILL APPROACH THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO
INLAND AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO FAVOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST
WILL INITIALLY REMAIN LOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ONLY A FEW
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FURTHER INLAND...SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
ATLANTIC COAST SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
THE COAST A LITTLE MILDER WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN CONTROL...WE WILL
START TO FEEL THE EASTERN FRINGES OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL BOOST RAIN CHANCES INTO THE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CATEGORY AREA WIDE. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER/INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO SERVE TO CUT BACK ON HIGH TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S EVERYWHERE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME BRIEF
PATCHES OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT VQQ 08-12Z. EAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 9-13 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
E/NE WINDS TODAY WILL TURN TO THE E/SE SATURDAY...AND TO THE SE
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  67  89  68 /   0  10  30  10
SSI  82  73  83  73 /  10  30  40  20
JAX  87  70  87  70 /  10  30  40  20
SGJ  83  74  84  72 /  10  30  40  20
GNV  90  69  89  69 /  10  10  40  20
OCF  90  69  90  69 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/SHULER/





000
FXUS62 KJAX 290749
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
349 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL OVERNIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. MODELS ARE TRENDING QUITE A BIT DRIER TODAY WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING OFFSHORE AND LOWER IN COVERAGE THAN
DEPICTED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. GIVEN LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE STILL
OVER THE AREA...WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY TODAY/TNGT...WITH A
SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLY MAKING IT ONSHORE FROM SAINT AUGUSTINE
SOUTHWARD. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE AT A FEW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS UP
SLIGHTLY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 80S COAST TO
THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND
MORE MOIST AIR...LOWS TNGT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MILDER THAN THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...WITH READINGS IN` THE MID 60S FAR INLAND...WITH UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A COASTAL TROUGH
MOVES WEST ACROSS THE AREA. MID/HIGH END CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
MORNING NEAR THE COAST WILL MIGRATE INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS DYNAMICS WILL BE
RATHER WEAK. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIT TO THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING RAIN-FREE SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RESULT IN MUGGIER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH...ALBEIT
WEAK...WILL APPROACH THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO
INLAND AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO FAVOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST
WILL INITIALLY REMAIN LOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ONLY A FEW
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FURTHER INLAND...SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
ATLANTIC COAST SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
THE COAST A LITTLE MILDER WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN CONTROL...WE WILL
START TO FEEL THE EASTERN FRINGES OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL BOOST RAIN CHANCES INTO THE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CATEGORY AREA WIDE. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER/INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO SERVE TO CUT BACK ON HIGH TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S EVERYWHERE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME BRIEF
PATCHES OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT VQQ 08-12Z. EAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 9-13 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
E/NE WINDS TODAY WILL TURN TO THE E/SE SATURDAY...AND TO THE SE
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  67  89  68 /   0  10  30  10
SSI  82  73  83  73 /  10  30  40  20
JAX  87  70  87  70 /  10  30  40  20
SGJ  83  74  84  72 /  10  30  40  20
GNV  90  69  89  69 /  10  10  40  20
OCF  90  69  90  69 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/SHULER/





000
FXUS62 KJAX 290048
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
848 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...A MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS TONIGHT. SURFCE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING IN AN ONSHORE FLOW WHICH WILL BRING IN A FEW
COASTAL CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI AM.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AT SGJ THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT WHERE STRATOCUMULUS WILL FLIRT UNDER EASTERLY FLOW.
NAM12 CIG MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARED TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH STRATOCU
ADVECTION ONSHORE OVERNIGHT NIGHT BASED ON OBSERVATIONS...SO LEANED
TOWARD THE LESS AGGRESSIVE NARRE/HRRR GUIDANCE WHICH KEPT THICKER
DECK OFFSHORE WITH JUST WAVES OF MVFR FLIRTING WITH SGJ THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ALSO PERIOD OF MVFR DUE TO SHALLOW GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AT VQQ
AFTER 07Z FRI MORNING THROUGH SUNRISE BASED ON PERSISTENCE. FRI
BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS MIDDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AT COASTAL SITES. PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE VCSH IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. WINDS EAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

RIP CURRENTS: SURF REPORTS FROM THE AFTERNOON INDICATED EAST WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES 2 TO 3 FEET AND LIGHT/MODERATE RIPS.
PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW WITH LINGERING SWELL RESULTS IN A CONTINUED
MODERATE RISK FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  90  67  90 /   0  10  10  30
SSI  69  82  72  81 /  10  10  20  50
JAX  65  86  69  86 /   0  10  20  40
SGJ  70  82  72  82 /  10  20  30  50
GNV  62  88  68  89 /   0  20  10  40
OCF  65  89  69  90 /   0  20  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PETERSON/ENYEDI/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 281740
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
140 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN...WITH ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK...

.NEAR TERM /THRU FRIDAY/...

DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER AFTERNOON DEW POINTS
YIELDING LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. LOW TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT LOOKS
GOOD...WITH LOW/MID 60S INLAND...NEAR 70 COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME COASTAL SHOWERS
AFFECTING COASTLINE ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...
POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO PUTNAM/ERN MARION COUNTIES. MAINTAINED
CURRENT FORECAST OF 20 POP SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF FORECAST AREA.
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI COMPARED TO TODAY... IN CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN...NEAR 90 INTERIOR...MID-UPR 80S EASTERN
COUNTIES ...LOW-MID 80S COAST.

.SHORT TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT/...

MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE AS TROF OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WRN
ATLANTIC WILL TRACK WESTWARD INTO SE GA/NE FL FRI NIGHT AND WILL
MAXIMIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS AT TIMES WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST FRI NIGHT AND PUSHING INTO INLAND AREAS ON SATURDAY WITH
EVENT BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE BY SAT NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TROF MOVES WEST OF THE REGION AND WEAKENS. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SEVERE STORMS AS TROF/DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAK IN NATURE BUT
RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL BE INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90
INLAND.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SUN-TUE...LINGERING SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW AND SLIGHTLY MORE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG THE ATLC COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT ACTIVATES WITH MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THEN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH A
FEW BECOMING STRONG EACH DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. NEAR CLIMO MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 90S INLAND.

WED-THU...LONG RANGE MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT
WITH A PATTERN CHANGE WITH STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH
OUT OF THE WRN CARIB WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN GOMEX BY
THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION POSSIBLY MOVING
NORTHWARD UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN IN THE EARLY
SUMMER MONTHS CAN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND STORMS ACROSS NE
FL/SE GA...ESPECIALLY IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES STALLED ACROSS OUT
REGION INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND PERIOD. FOR NOW WE EXPECT
ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE WITH AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
POTENTIAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE NORTHWARD UP THE
FLORIDA PENINSLA AND OFF THE WRN ATLC WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL
AT TIMES DURING DAYTIME HEATING. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
RAINFALL IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL HELP A FEW AREAS ALONG
THE ATLC COAST THAT HAVE RECEIVED VERY LITTLE RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST 30 DAYS. THE FULL MOON PEAKS ON TUESDAY JUNE 2ND...SO WILL BE
MOVING AWAY FROM PEAK HIGH TIDES SO SIGNIFICANT COASTAL IMPACTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH HIGHER RIP CURRENT
RISK...ROUGH SURF...MINOR BEACH EROSION AND ELEVATED TIDAL LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...

CONTINUED EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
3-5 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT WIND INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROF MOVES ONSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: CONTINUED MODERATE RISK WITH ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  90  67  90 /   0  10  10  30
SSI  69  82  72  81 /  10  10  20  50
JAX  65  86  69  86 /   0  10  20  40
SGJ  70  82  72  82 /  10  20  30  50
GNV  62  88  68  89 /   0  20  10  40
OCF  65  89  69  90 /   0  20  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/HESS/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 281740
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
140 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN...WITH ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK...

.NEAR TERM /THRU FRIDAY/...

DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER AFTERNOON DEW POINTS
YIELDING LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. LOW TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT LOOKS
GOOD...WITH LOW/MID 60S INLAND...NEAR 70 COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME COASTAL SHOWERS
AFFECTING COASTLINE ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...
POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO PUTNAM/ERN MARION COUNTIES. MAINTAINED
CURRENT FORECAST OF 20 POP SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF FORECAST AREA.
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI COMPARED TO TODAY... IN CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN...NEAR 90 INTERIOR...MID-UPR 80S EASTERN
COUNTIES ...LOW-MID 80S COAST.

.SHORT TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT/...

MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE AS TROF OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WRN
ATLANTIC WILL TRACK WESTWARD INTO SE GA/NE FL FRI NIGHT AND WILL
MAXIMIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS AT TIMES WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST FRI NIGHT AND PUSHING INTO INLAND AREAS ON SATURDAY WITH
EVENT BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE BY SAT NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TROF MOVES WEST OF THE REGION AND WEAKENS. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SEVERE STORMS AS TROF/DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAK IN NATURE BUT
RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL BE INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90
INLAND.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SUN-TUE...LINGERING SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW AND SLIGHTLY MORE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG THE ATLC COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT ACTIVATES WITH MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THEN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH A
FEW BECOMING STRONG EACH DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. NEAR CLIMO MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 90S INLAND.

WED-THU...LONG RANGE MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT
WITH A PATTERN CHANGE WITH STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH
OUT OF THE WRN CARIB WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN GOMEX BY
THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION POSSIBLY MOVING
NORTHWARD UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN IN THE EARLY
SUMMER MONTHS CAN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND STORMS ACROSS NE
FL/SE GA...ESPECIALLY IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES STALLED ACROSS OUT
REGION INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND PERIOD. FOR NOW WE EXPECT
ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE WITH AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
POTENTIAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE NORTHWARD UP THE
FLORIDA PENINSLA AND OFF THE WRN ATLC WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL
AT TIMES DURING DAYTIME HEATING. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
RAINFALL IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL HELP A FEW AREAS ALONG
THE ATLC COAST THAT HAVE RECEIVED VERY LITTLE RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST 30 DAYS. THE FULL MOON PEAKS ON TUESDAY JUNE 2ND...SO WILL BE
MOVING AWAY FROM PEAK HIGH TIDES SO SIGNIFICANT COASTAL IMPACTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH HIGHER RIP CURRENT
RISK...ROUGH SURF...MINOR BEACH EROSION AND ELEVATED TIDAL LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...

CONTINUED EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
3-5 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT WIND INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROF MOVES ONSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: CONTINUED MODERATE RISK WITH ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  90  67  90 /   0  10  10  30
SSI  69  82  72  81 /  10  10  20  50
JAX  65  86  69  86 /   0  10  20  40
SGJ  70  82  72  82 /  10  20  30  50
GNV  62  88  68  89 /   0  20  10  40
OCF  65  89  69  90 /   0  20  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/HESS/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KJAX 281740
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
140 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN...WITH ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK...

.NEAR TERM /THRU FRIDAY/...

DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER AFTERNOON DEW POINTS
YIELDING LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. LOW TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT LOOKS
GOOD...WITH LOW/MID 60S INLAND...NEAR 70 COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME COASTAL SHOWERS
AFFECTING COASTLINE ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...
POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO PUTNAM/ERN MARION COUNTIES. MAINTAINED
CURRENT FORECAST OF 20 POP SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF FORECAST AREA.
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI COMPARED TO TODAY... IN CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN...NEAR 90 INTERIOR...MID-UPR 80S EASTERN
COUNTIES ...LOW-MID 80S COAST.

.SHORT TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT/...

MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE AS TROF OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WRN
ATLANTIC WILL TRACK WESTWARD INTO SE GA/NE FL FRI NIGHT AND WILL
MAXIMIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS AT TIMES WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST FRI NIGHT AND PUSHING INTO INLAND AREAS ON SATURDAY WITH
EVENT BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE BY SAT NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TROF MOVES WEST OF THE REGION AND WEAKENS. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SEVERE STORMS AS TROF/DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAK IN NATURE BUT
RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL BE INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90
INLAND.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SUN-TUE...LINGERING SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW AND SLIGHTLY MORE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG THE ATLC COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT ACTIVATES WITH MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THEN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH A
FEW BECOMING STRONG EACH DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. NEAR CLIMO MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 90S INLAND.

WED-THU...LONG RANGE MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT
WITH A PATTERN CHANGE WITH STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH
OUT OF THE WRN CARIB WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN GOMEX BY
THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION POSSIBLY MOVING
NORTHWARD UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN IN THE EARLY
SUMMER MONTHS CAN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND STORMS ACROSS NE
FL/SE GA...ESPECIALLY IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES STALLED ACROSS OUT
REGION INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND PERIOD. FOR NOW WE EXPECT
ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE WITH AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
POTENTIAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE NORTHWARD UP THE
FLORIDA PENINSLA AND OFF THE WRN ATLC WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL
AT TIMES DURING DAYTIME HEATING. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
RAINFALL IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL HELP A FEW AREAS ALONG
THE ATLC COAST THAT HAVE RECEIVED VERY LITTLE RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST 30 DAYS. THE FULL MOON PEAKS ON TUESDAY JUNE 2ND...SO WILL BE
MOVING AWAY FROM PEAK HIGH TIDES SO SIGNIFICANT COASTAL IMPACTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH HIGHER RIP CURRENT
RISK...ROUGH SURF...MINOR BEACH EROSION AND ELEVATED TIDAL LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...

CONTINUED EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
3-5 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT WIND INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROF MOVES ONSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: CONTINUED MODERATE RISK WITH ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  90  67  90 /   0  10  10  30
SSI  69  82  72  81 /  10  10  20  50
JAX  65  86  69  86 /   0  10  20  40
SGJ  70  82  72  82 /  10  20  30  50
GNV  62  88  68  89 /   0  20  10  40
OCF  65  89  69  90 /   0  20  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/HESS/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 281740
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
140 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN...WITH ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK...

.NEAR TERM /THRU FRIDAY/...

DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER AFTERNOON DEW POINTS
YIELDING LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. LOW TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT LOOKS
GOOD...WITH LOW/MID 60S INLAND...NEAR 70 COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME COASTAL SHOWERS
AFFECTING COASTLINE ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...
POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO PUTNAM/ERN MARION COUNTIES. MAINTAINED
CURRENT FORECAST OF 20 POP SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF FORECAST AREA.
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI COMPARED TO TODAY... IN CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN...NEAR 90 INTERIOR...MID-UPR 80S EASTERN
COUNTIES ...LOW-MID 80S COAST.

.SHORT TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT/...

MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE AS TROF OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WRN
ATLANTIC WILL TRACK WESTWARD INTO SE GA/NE FL FRI NIGHT AND WILL
MAXIMIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS AT TIMES WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST FRI NIGHT AND PUSHING INTO INLAND AREAS ON SATURDAY WITH
EVENT BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE BY SAT NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TROF MOVES WEST OF THE REGION AND WEAKENS. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SEVERE STORMS AS TROF/DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAK IN NATURE BUT
RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL BE INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90
INLAND.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SUN-TUE...LINGERING SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW AND SLIGHTLY MORE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG THE ATLC COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT ACTIVATES WITH MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THEN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH A
FEW BECOMING STRONG EACH DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. NEAR CLIMO MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 90S INLAND.

WED-THU...LONG RANGE MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT
WITH A PATTERN CHANGE WITH STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH
OUT OF THE WRN CARIB WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN GOMEX BY
THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION POSSIBLY MOVING
NORTHWARD UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN IN THE EARLY
SUMMER MONTHS CAN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND STORMS ACROSS NE
FL/SE GA...ESPECIALLY IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES STALLED ACROSS OUT
REGION INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND PERIOD. FOR NOW WE EXPECT
ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE WITH AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
POTENTIAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE NORTHWARD UP THE
FLORIDA PENINSLA AND OFF THE WRN ATLC WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL
AT TIMES DURING DAYTIME HEATING. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
RAINFALL IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL HELP A FEW AREAS ALONG
THE ATLC COAST THAT HAVE RECEIVED VERY LITTLE RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST 30 DAYS. THE FULL MOON PEAKS ON TUESDAY JUNE 2ND...SO WILL BE
MOVING AWAY FROM PEAK HIGH TIDES SO SIGNIFICANT COASTAL IMPACTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH HIGHER RIP CURRENT
RISK...ROUGH SURF...MINOR BEACH EROSION AND ELEVATED TIDAL LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...

CONTINUED EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
3-5 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT WIND INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROF MOVES ONSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: CONTINUED MODERATE RISK WITH ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  90  67  90 /   0  10  10  30
SSI  69  82  72  81 /  10  10  20  50
JAX  65  86  69  86 /   0  10  20  40
SGJ  70  82  72  82 /  10  20  30  50
GNV  62  88  68  89 /   0  20  10  40
OCF  65  89  69  90 /   0  20  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/HESS/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KJAX 281332
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
932 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS MUCH DRIER TODAY THAN PRIOR DAYS...
WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SEEN...CONFIRMING MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
NO PRECIP POTENTIAL TODAY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
CURRENT HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD. DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD ALLOW DEW POINTS TO DROP INTO UPR 50S/LWR 60S BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS ACCOMPANIED BY SOMEWHAT LOWER
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES PLANNED IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE.  ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS AND
SEAS TO REMAIN UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  63  90  67 /  10   0  10  10
SSI  81  69  82  72 /  10  10  10  20
JAX  86  66  86  69 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  84  70  82  72 /  10  10  20  30
GNV  88  62  88  68 /   0   0  20  10
OCF  89  65  89  69 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 281332
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
932 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS MUCH DRIER TODAY THAN PRIOR DAYS...
WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SEEN...CONFIRMING MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
NO PRECIP POTENTIAL TODAY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
CURRENT HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD. DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD ALLOW DEW POINTS TO DROP INTO UPR 50S/LWR 60S BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS ACCOMPANIED BY SOMEWHAT LOWER
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES PLANNED IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE.  ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS AND
SEAS TO REMAIN UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  63  90  67 /  10   0  10  10
SSI  81  69  82  72 /  10  10  10  20
JAX  86  66  86  69 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  84  70  82  72 /  10  10  20  30
GNV  88  62  88  68 /   0   0  20  10
OCF  89  65  89  69 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KJAX 281332
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
932 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS MUCH DRIER TODAY THAN PRIOR DAYS...
WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SEEN...CONFIRMING MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
NO PRECIP POTENTIAL TODAY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
CURRENT HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD. DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD ALLOW DEW POINTS TO DROP INTO UPR 50S/LWR 60S BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS ACCOMPANIED BY SOMEWHAT LOWER
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES PLANNED IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE.  ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS AND
SEAS TO REMAIN UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  63  90  67 /  10   0  10  10
SSI  81  69  82  72 /  10  10  10  20
JAX  86  66  86  69 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  84  70  82  72 /  10  10  20  30
GNV  88  62  88  68 /   0   0  20  10
OCF  89  65  89  69 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KJAX 281332
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
932 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS MUCH DRIER TODAY THAN PRIOR DAYS...
WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SEEN...CONFIRMING MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
NO PRECIP POTENTIAL TODAY WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
CURRENT HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD. DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD ALLOW DEW POINTS TO DROP INTO UPR 50S/LWR 60S BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...SO WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS ACCOMPANIED BY SOMEWHAT LOWER
HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES PLANNED IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE.  ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS AND
SEAS TO REMAIN UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  63  90  67 /  10   0  10  10
SSI  81  69  82  72 /  10  10  10  20
JAX  86  66  86  69 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  84  70  82  72 /  10  10  20  30
GNV  88  62  88  68 /   0   0  20  10
OCF  89  65  89  69 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 280726
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
326 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL SHUT DOWN ANY CONVECTION TODAY AND WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STILL TO THE
NORTHEAST...A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 FAR INLAND. THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TNGT...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF COASTAL SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF JAX. DRY AIR AND DECREASING WINDS WILL MAKE FOR
NEARLY OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT...RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH 65-70 CLOSE TO THE
COAST.

FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THIS FEATURE WILL
MAKE IT ONSHORE...SO WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM JAX BEACH
SOUTHWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE ATLANTIC
FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT THE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING WITH AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO INLAND AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE THE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO FAVOR A BETTER
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIT TO THE
WEST SATURDAY EVENING WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING RAIN-FREE SATURDAY
NIGHT ALTHOUGH HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RESULT IN MUGGIER
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST WILL INITIALLY REMAIN LOW WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FURTHER INLAND...SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
ATLANTIC COAST SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
THE COAST A LITTLE MILDER WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN CONTROL...WE WILL
START TO FEEL THE EASTERN FRINGES OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AREA WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  63  90  67 /  10   0  10  10
SSI  81  69  82  72 /   0  10  10  20
JAX  86  66  86  69 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  82  70  82  72 /   0  10  20  30
GNV  88  62  88  68 /   0   0  20  10
OCF  89  65  89  69 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/SHULER/




000
FXUS62 KJAX 280726
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
326 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL SHUT DOWN ANY CONVECTION TODAY AND WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STILL TO THE
NORTHEAST...A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 FAR INLAND. THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TNGT...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF COASTAL SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF JAX. DRY AIR AND DECREASING WINDS WILL MAKE FOR
NEARLY OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT...RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH 65-70 CLOSE TO THE
COAST.

FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THIS FEATURE WILL
MAKE IT ONSHORE...SO WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM JAX BEACH
SOUTHWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE ATLANTIC
FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT THE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING WITH AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO INLAND AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE THE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO FAVOR A BETTER
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIT TO THE
WEST SATURDAY EVENING WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING RAIN-FREE SATURDAY
NIGHT ALTHOUGH HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RESULT IN MUGGIER
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST WILL INITIALLY REMAIN LOW WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FURTHER INLAND...SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
ATLANTIC COAST SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
THE COAST A LITTLE MILDER WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN CONTROL...WE WILL
START TO FEEL THE EASTERN FRINGES OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AREA WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  63  90  67 /  10   0  10  10
SSI  81  69  82  72 /   0  10  10  20
JAX  86  66  86  69 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  82  70  82  72 /   0  10  20  30
GNV  88  62  88  68 /   0   0  20  10
OCF  89  65  89  69 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/SHULER/





000
FXUS62 KJAX 280124
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
924 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE WRN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LATEST RADAR SHOWS NO PRECIP ECHOES.
THUS WILL REMOVE POPS FOR REST OF TONIGHT. ONE SMALL EXCEPTION
WOULD BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EXISTS FOR A SMALL SHOWER BUT EVEN THERE PROBABILITIES
ANTICIPATED TO BE 15 PERCENT OR LESS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT
LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS...BUT STILL EXPECTING
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAINLY DUE TO DEBRIS CLOUDS AFTN/EVENING
FROM CONVECTION OVER SRN GA. TWEAKED MIN TEMPS A 1-2 DEG BIT
LOWER. SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN GRIDS AND FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILS NEXT 24 HRS FOR ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...E TO SE WINDS NEAR 10-15 KT EXPECTED REST OF TONIGHT
WITH SEAS OF AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET. ISOLD SMALL LIGHT SHOWER
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW
AND SURF AROUND 2-3 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  89  65  89 /  10  10  10   0
SSI  72  81  71  81 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  65  86  67  85 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  71  84  70  81 /  10  10  10  30
GNV  65  89  64  88 /  10  10  10  20
OCF  67  89  66  89 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/PETERSON/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 271850
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR INLAND AREAS
THIS EARLY EVENING...

...ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM...THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...

THIS EVENING...WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
GOMEX INTO THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THROUGH INTERIOR GA. THERE IS
A VORT LOBE EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROF OVER NE
GOMEX...THAT WILL ADVECT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. 5H TEMPS ARE ABOUT -9.8 C ACROSS BIG BEND REGION
AND INTERIOR GA WHERE THERE IS A LESS PRONOUNCED CAP AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS IS WHERE CONVECTION HAS
INITIATED WITH THE GULF SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN NOW AND 02Z OVER
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR SE GA AS GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZES MEET. ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH
STRONG WINDS THRU 02Z. AFTER 02Z... CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
MARKEDLY DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF
FORCING. THIS WILL LEAVE ISOLD SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
FAIR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND ST JOHNS BASIN.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RE-BUILDS IN ALOFT AND SENDS A SURGE
OF DRIER AIR WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1.50". THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY SHUT DOWN MOST DAYTIME CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES FURTHER INLAND. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TO BREEZY/15 MPH ALONG THE
COAST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS INLAND.

FRIDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS TO MOVE INLAND ST. AUG
SOUTHWARD DURING DAY FRIDAY...WITH NOT MUCH PRECIP POTENTIAL
ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW SUPPORTS HIGHER HIGH TEMPS
INTERIOR SECTIONS...NEAR 90...MID-UPR 80S FURTHER EAST...EXCEPT
LOW 80S IMMEDIATE COAST.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL SHOWERS AFFECTING EASTERN COUNTIES
AGAIN BEFORE DAWN SATURDAY...AND HAVE CONFINED LOW POPS THERE...
DRY FURTHER INLAND.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH ONSHORE E TO SE FLOW OVER AREA AROUND WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH.
FURTHER ALOFT...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND REPLACED BY WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER GULF COAST STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES THEN.

SIMILAR TEMPERATURE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS
90-92 INTERIOR...87-90 FURTHER EAST...MID 80S COAST. LOW TEMPS SHOULD
BE IN UPPER 60S INTERIOR...AROUND 70 FURTHER EAST...LOW 60S COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED IN THE 3000-5000 FT
RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WHILE RAINFALL ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF
SITES SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY VCSH AND/OR VCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE E TO SE FLOW TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

RIP CURRENTS: CONTINUED MODERATE RISK WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  89  65  89 /  40  10  10   0
SSI  72  81  71  81 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  68  86  67  85 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  71  84  70  81 /  10  10  10  30
GNV  66  89  64  88 /  10  10  10  20
OCF  67  89  66  89 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/CORDERO/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 271850
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR INLAND AREAS
THIS EARLY EVENING...

...ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM...THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...

THIS EVENING...WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
GOMEX INTO THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THROUGH INTERIOR GA. THERE IS
A VORT LOBE EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROF OVER NE
GOMEX...THAT WILL ADVECT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. 5H TEMPS ARE ABOUT -9.8 C ACROSS BIG BEND REGION
AND INTERIOR GA WHERE THERE IS A LESS PRONOUNCED CAP AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS IS WHERE CONVECTION HAS
INITIATED WITH THE GULF SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN NOW AND 02Z OVER
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR SE GA AS GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZES MEET. ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH
STRONG WINDS THRU 02Z. AFTER 02Z... CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
MARKEDLY DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF
FORCING. THIS WILL LEAVE ISOLD SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
FAIR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND ST JOHNS BASIN.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RE-BUILDS IN ALOFT AND SENDS A SURGE
OF DRIER AIR WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1.50". THIS WILL
ESSENTIALLY SHUT DOWN MOST DAYTIME CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES FURTHER INLAND. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TO BREEZY/15 MPH ALONG THE
COAST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS INLAND.

FRIDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS TO MOVE INLAND ST. AUG
SOUTHWARD DURING DAY FRIDAY...WITH NOT MUCH PRECIP POTENTIAL
ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW SUPPORTS HIGHER HIGH TEMPS
INTERIOR SECTIONS...NEAR 90...MID-UPR 80S FURTHER EAST...EXCEPT
LOW 80S IMMEDIATE COAST.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL SHOWERS AFFECTING EASTERN COUNTIES
AGAIN BEFORE DAWN SATURDAY...AND HAVE CONFINED LOW POPS THERE...
DRY FURTHER INLAND.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH ONSHORE E TO SE FLOW OVER AREA AROUND WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH.
FURTHER ALOFT...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND REPLACED BY WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER GULF COAST STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES THEN.

SIMILAR TEMPERATURE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS
90-92 INTERIOR...87-90 FURTHER EAST...MID 80S COAST. LOW TEMPS SHOULD
BE IN UPPER 60S INTERIOR...AROUND 70 FURTHER EAST...LOW 60S COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED IN THE 3000-5000 FT
RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WHILE RAINFALL ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF
SITES SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY VCSH AND/OR VCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE E TO SE FLOW TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

RIP CURRENTS: CONTINUED MODERATE RISK WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  89  65  89 /  40  10  10   0
SSI  72  81  71  81 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  68  86  67  85 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  71  84  70  81 /  10  10  10  30
GNV  66  89  64  88 /  10  10  10  20
OCF  67  89  66  89 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/CORDERO/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 271439
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1039 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...700-300 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE PANHANDLE
OF FLORIDA. EXPECTING ATLANTIC SEABREEZE AND GULF COAST SEABREEZE
TO MERGE OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
WITH BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40 TO 50 PERCENT) EXTENDING ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM JESUP GEORGIA TO LAKE CITY FLORIDA DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO REMAINS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED AREA WITH MAIN
IMPACT BEING GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS. MEANWHILE AREAS ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
RAIN-FREE WITH ONLY A BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE AS THE ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT MOVES INLAND BUT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ONLY 10%...SO
WILL KEEP SILENT IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MID 80S BEACHES...TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF NE FL
AND SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED IN THE 3000-5000 FT
RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE RAINFALL
ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY VCSH AND/OR VCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE. MAINLY VFR
CONDITION THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  66  89  64 /  50  30  10  10
SSI  83  72  81  71 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  88  68  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  85  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  91  66  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  91  67  90  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

WOLF/CORDERO/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KJAX 271439
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1039 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...700-300 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE PANHANDLE
OF FLORIDA. EXPECTING ATLANTIC SEABREEZE AND GULF COAST SEABREEZE
TO MERGE OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
WITH BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40 TO 50 PERCENT) EXTENDING ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM JESUP GEORGIA TO LAKE CITY FLORIDA DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO REMAINS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED AREA WITH MAIN
IMPACT BEING GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS. MEANWHILE AREAS ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
RAIN-FREE WITH ONLY A BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE AS THE ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT MOVES INLAND BUT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ONLY 10%...SO
WILL KEEP SILENT IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MID 80S BEACHES...TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF NE FL
AND SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED IN THE 3000-5000 FT
RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE RAINFALL
ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY VCSH AND/OR VCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE. MAINLY VFR
CONDITION THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  66  89  64 /  50  30  10  10
SSI  83  72  81  71 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  88  68  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  85  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  91  66  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  91  67  90  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

WOLF/CORDERO/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 271439
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1039 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...700-300 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE PANHANDLE
OF FLORIDA. EXPECTING ATLANTIC SEABREEZE AND GULF COAST SEABREEZE
TO MERGE OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
WITH BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40 TO 50 PERCENT) EXTENDING ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM JESUP GEORGIA TO LAKE CITY FLORIDA DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO REMAINS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED AREA WITH MAIN
IMPACT BEING GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS. MEANWHILE AREAS ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
RAIN-FREE WITH ONLY A BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE AS THE ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT MOVES INLAND BUT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ONLY 10%...SO
WILL KEEP SILENT IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MID 80S BEACHES...TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF NE FL
AND SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED IN THE 3000-5000 FT
RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE RAINFALL
ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY VCSH AND/OR VCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE. MAINLY VFR
CONDITION THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  66  89  64 /  50  30  10  10
SSI  83  72  81  71 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  88  68  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  85  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  91  66  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  91  67  90  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

WOLF/CORDERO/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 271439
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1039 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...700-300 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE PANHANDLE
OF FLORIDA. EXPECTING ATLANTIC SEABREEZE AND GULF COAST SEABREEZE
TO MERGE OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
WITH BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40 TO 50 PERCENT) EXTENDING ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM JESUP GEORGIA TO LAKE CITY FLORIDA DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO REMAINS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED AREA WITH MAIN
IMPACT BEING GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS. MEANWHILE AREAS ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
RAIN-FREE WITH ONLY A BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE AS THE ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT MOVES INLAND BUT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ONLY 10%...SO
WILL KEEP SILENT IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MID 80S BEACHES...TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF NE FL
AND SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED IN THE 3000-5000 FT
RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE RAINFALL
ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY VCSH AND/OR VCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE. MAINLY VFR
CONDITION THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  66  89  64 /  50  30  10  10
SSI  83  72  81  71 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  88  68  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  85  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  91  66  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  91  67  90  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

WOLF/CORDERO/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KJAX 270647
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
247 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR INLAND AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...LAST OF CONVECTION FADING AND SHOULD BE DONE
AROUND 3-4AM WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL YDAY.

TODAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED TRIGGER INLAND CONVECTION
YDAY AND PUSH MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION
WILL LINGER ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BIG BEND REGION AND INTO THE WESTERN GEORGIA. THIS WILL HELP
TO TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER NORTHWARD ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE INTERACTION OF THE WESTWARD MOVING ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT WILL COLLIDE WITH THIS FEATURE TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/STRONG WINDS
SIMILAR TO YDAY. MEANWHILE AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST
JOHNS RIVER BASIN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY RAIN-FREE WITH ONLY A
BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE AS THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVES
INLAND BUT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ONLY 10%...SO WILL KEEP SILENT
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 90
DEGREES INLAND AND MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST IN THE E/SE SURFACE
FLOW AROUND 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND LIGHTER SPEEDS INLAND.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT
ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...OTHERWISE EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RE-BUILDS IN ALOFT AND SENDS A
SURGE OF DRIER AIRMASS WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1.50"
ACROSS ALL OF SE GA AND NE FL AND THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN
MOST OF THE DAYTIME CONVECTION AS THE STEERING FLOW TEMPORARILY
SHIFTS TO THE ENE AND THIS WILL BASICALLY ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE INLAND MOVING ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE
FRONT BUT WITH POP GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT AT 10% OR LESS
HAVE KEPT IN SILENT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES FURTHER INLAND. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TO BREEZY/15 MPH ALONG THE
COAST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS INLAND.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING HOVERS OVER THE
REGION. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTN/NIGHT OFFSHORE
WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT ONSHORE. WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE COAST FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT UNDER DRY AIR/OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER/MID 60S INLAND...AND UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 COAST. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL USE LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDENCE DECREASING. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL INCREASE POPS FURTHER TO
MID/HIGH END CHANCE BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF NORMAL WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS FLOATING AROUND IN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AT KSGJ/KSSI
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL AROUND 15Z...THEN SCATTERED
CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED IN THE 3000-5000 FT RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE RAINFALL ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY VCSH AND/OR
VCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  65  89  64 /  50  30  10  10
SSI  83  72  81  71 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  88  68  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  85  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  92  66  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  92  67  90  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/ALLEN




000
FXUS62 KJAX 270647
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
247 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR INLAND AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...LAST OF CONVECTION FADING AND SHOULD BE DONE
AROUND 3-4AM WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL YDAY.

TODAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED TRIGGER INLAND CONVECTION
YDAY AND PUSH MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION
WILL LINGER ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BIG BEND REGION AND INTO THE WESTERN GEORGIA. THIS WILL HELP
TO TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER NORTHWARD ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE INTERACTION OF THE WESTWARD MOVING ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT WILL COLLIDE WITH THIS FEATURE TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/STRONG WINDS
SIMILAR TO YDAY. MEANWHILE AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST
JOHNS RIVER BASIN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY RAIN-FREE WITH ONLY A
BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE AS THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVES
INLAND BUT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ONLY 10%...SO WILL KEEP SILENT
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 90
DEGREES INLAND AND MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST IN THE E/SE SURFACE
FLOW AROUND 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND LIGHTER SPEEDS INLAND.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT
ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...OTHERWISE EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RE-BUILDS IN ALOFT AND SENDS A
SURGE OF DRIER AIRMASS WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1.50"
ACROSS ALL OF SE GA AND NE FL AND THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN
MOST OF THE DAYTIME CONVECTION AS THE STEERING FLOW TEMPORARILY
SHIFTS TO THE ENE AND THIS WILL BASICALLY ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE INLAND MOVING ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE
FRONT BUT WITH POP GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT AT 10% OR LESS
HAVE KEPT IN SILENT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES FURTHER INLAND. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TO BREEZY/15 MPH ALONG THE
COAST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS INLAND.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING HOVERS OVER THE
REGION. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTN/NIGHT OFFSHORE
WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT ONSHORE. WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE COAST FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT UNDER DRY AIR/OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER/MID 60S INLAND...AND UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 COAST. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL USE LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDENCE DECREASING. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL INCREASE POPS FURTHER TO
MID/HIGH END CHANCE BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF NORMAL WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS FLOATING AROUND IN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AT KSGJ/KSSI
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL AROUND 15Z...THEN SCATTERED
CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED IN THE 3000-5000 FT RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE RAINFALL ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY VCSH AND/OR
VCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  65  89  64 /  50  30  10  10
SSI  83  72  81  71 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  88  68  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  85  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  92  66  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  92  67  90  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/ALLEN





000
FXUS62 KJAX 270647
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
247 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR INLAND AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...LAST OF CONVECTION FADING AND SHOULD BE DONE
AROUND 3-4AM WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL YDAY.

TODAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED TRIGGER INLAND CONVECTION
YDAY AND PUSH MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION
WILL LINGER ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BIG BEND REGION AND INTO THE WESTERN GEORGIA. THIS WILL HELP
TO TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER NORTHWARD ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE INTERACTION OF THE WESTWARD MOVING ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT WILL COLLIDE WITH THIS FEATURE TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/STRONG WINDS
SIMILAR TO YDAY. MEANWHILE AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST
JOHNS RIVER BASIN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY RAIN-FREE WITH ONLY A
BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE AS THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVES
INLAND BUT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ONLY 10%...SO WILL KEEP SILENT
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 90
DEGREES INLAND AND MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST IN THE E/SE SURFACE
FLOW AROUND 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND LIGHTER SPEEDS INLAND.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT
ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...OTHERWISE EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RE-BUILDS IN ALOFT AND SENDS A
SURGE OF DRIER AIRMASS WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1.50"
ACROSS ALL OF SE GA AND NE FL AND THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN
MOST OF THE DAYTIME CONVECTION AS THE STEERING FLOW TEMPORARILY
SHIFTS TO THE ENE AND THIS WILL BASICALLY ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE INLAND MOVING ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE
FRONT BUT WITH POP GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT AT 10% OR LESS
HAVE KEPT IN SILENT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES FURTHER INLAND. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TO BREEZY/15 MPH ALONG THE
COAST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS INLAND.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING HOVERS OVER THE
REGION. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTN/NIGHT OFFSHORE
WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT ONSHORE. WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE COAST FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT UNDER DRY AIR/OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER/MID 60S INLAND...AND UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 COAST. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL USE LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDENCE DECREASING. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL INCREASE POPS FURTHER TO
MID/HIGH END CHANCE BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF NORMAL WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS FLOATING AROUND IN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AT KSGJ/KSSI
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL AROUND 15Z...THEN SCATTERED
CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED IN THE 3000-5000 FT RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE RAINFALL ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY VCSH AND/OR
VCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  65  89  64 /  50  30  10  10
SSI  83  72  81  71 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  88  68  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  85  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  92  66  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  92  67  90  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/ALLEN




000
FXUS62 KJAX 270647
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
247 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR INLAND AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...LAST OF CONVECTION FADING AND SHOULD BE DONE
AROUND 3-4AM WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL YDAY.

TODAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED TRIGGER INLAND CONVECTION
YDAY AND PUSH MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION
WILL LINGER ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BIG BEND REGION AND INTO THE WESTERN GEORGIA. THIS WILL HELP
TO TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER NORTHWARD ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE INTERACTION OF THE WESTWARD MOVING ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT WILL COLLIDE WITH THIS FEATURE TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/STRONG WINDS
SIMILAR TO YDAY. MEANWHILE AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST
JOHNS RIVER BASIN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY RAIN-FREE WITH ONLY A
BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE AS THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVES
INLAND BUT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ONLY 10%...SO WILL KEEP SILENT
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 90
DEGREES INLAND AND MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST IN THE E/SE SURFACE
FLOW AROUND 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND LIGHTER SPEEDS INLAND.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT
ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...OTHERWISE EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RE-BUILDS IN ALOFT AND SENDS A
SURGE OF DRIER AIRMASS WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1.50"
ACROSS ALL OF SE GA AND NE FL AND THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN
MOST OF THE DAYTIME CONVECTION AS THE STEERING FLOW TEMPORARILY
SHIFTS TO THE ENE AND THIS WILL BASICALLY ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE INLAND MOVING ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE
FRONT BUT WITH POP GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT AT 10% OR LESS
HAVE KEPT IN SILENT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES FURTHER INLAND. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TO BREEZY/15 MPH ALONG THE
COAST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS INLAND.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING HOVERS OVER THE
REGION. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTN/NIGHT OFFSHORE
WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT ONSHORE. WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE COAST FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT UNDER DRY AIR/OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER/MID 60S INLAND...AND UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 COAST. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL USE LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDENCE DECREASING. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL INCREASE POPS FURTHER TO
MID/HIGH END CHANCE BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF NORMAL WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS FLOATING AROUND IN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AT KSGJ/KSSI
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL AROUND 15Z...THEN SCATTERED
CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED IN THE 3000-5000 FT RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE RAINFALL ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY VCSH AND/OR
VCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  65  89  64 /  50  30  10  10
SSI  83  72  81  71 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  88  68  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  85  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  92  66  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  92  67  90  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/ALLEN





000
FXUS62 KJAX 270113
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
913 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...STORMS FIRED UP WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 301 THIS EVE AS A
SHORT WAVE INTERACTED WITH THE SEABREEZE COLLISION. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THEN END AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO
SLOW STORM MOTION...THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
(OVER 3 INCHES). WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS  LINGER INTO
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW PATCHES OF FOG
OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN THIS EVE.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN AROUND THE GNV TERMINAL WHERE
VERY BRIEF IFR VSBY REDUCTION OCCURRED IN TSRA AROUND 00Z. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE GNV TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AROUND 1500-2500 FT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WED
AFTN...A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AT THE TERMINALS
(ABOUT 10 PERCENT) SO NO MENTION NEEDED FOR THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO
4 FEET.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  88  66  89 /  60  40  20  10
SSI  72  83  71  82 /  20  10  20  20
JAX  69  86  67  85 /  30  10  20  20
SGJ  72  84  72  83 /  20  10  10  20
GNV  67  90  66  89 /  60  10  10  20
OCF  69  90  68  88 /  60  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PETERSON/SHASHY/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 270113
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
913 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...STORMS FIRED UP WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 301 THIS EVE AS A
SHORT WAVE INTERACTED WITH THE SEABREEZE COLLISION. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THEN END AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO
SLOW STORM MOTION...THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
(OVER 3 INCHES). WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS  LINGER INTO
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW PATCHES OF FOG
OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN THIS EVE.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN AROUND THE GNV TERMINAL WHERE
VERY BRIEF IFR VSBY REDUCTION OCCURRED IN TSRA AROUND 00Z. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE GNV TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AROUND 1500-2500 FT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WED
AFTN...A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AT THE TERMINALS
(ABOUT 10 PERCENT) SO NO MENTION NEEDED FOR THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO
4 FEET.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  88  66  89 /  60  40  20  10
SSI  72  83  71  82 /  20  10  20  20
JAX  69  86  67  85 /  30  10  20  20
SGJ  72  84  72  83 /  20  10  10  20
GNV  67  90  66  89 /  60  10  10  20
OCF  69  90  68  88 /  60  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PETERSON/SHASHY/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 262109
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
509 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE
75 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH TONIGHT):
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED INLAND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM ALONG THE SLOWLY MOVING GULF COAST SEABREEZE.
EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO BEING BEHIND THE
ATLANTIC COAST SEABREEZE AND ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE  AND DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE STORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WILL BE WORKING WITH CAPE
VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 25 KNOTS.
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND APPRECIABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALL COMBINE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO
SLOW STORM MOTION. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH A SLOW DRIFT EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL ALSO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. ALL CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WITH NO
RAIN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO DEEP LAYER DRY AIR  ADVECTING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...FEATURING RIDGING
ALOFT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SEABOARD...WITH "BERMUDA"
SURFACE RIDGING MAINTAINING A DEEP ONSHORE WIND REGIME LOCALLY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL GLIDE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY...IMPACTING THE WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION
DEVELOPING MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. A VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT
AIR MASS...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS...WILL ADVECT WESTWARD AND COVER MUCH OF OUR
REGION FROM LATE TOMORROW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH DEWPOINTS INLAND FALLING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW MAY DRIVE A FEW
SHOWERS ONSHORE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90
WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE
MID 60S INLAND...WITH LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS
STATES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER OUR REGION...ALBEIT AT A WEAKENED STATE.
LESS SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
COAST SEA BREEZES THIS WEEKEND. LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY INLAND...WITH
ISOLATED NOCTURNAL AND MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY FINALLY BRING MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO COASTAL LOCATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
KEEP SCATTERED DIURNAL COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR 90 INLAND...AND THE MID 80S AT THE
COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. ONE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE GNV TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. WILL JUST CARRY VCTS FOR NOW SINCE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF GAINESVILLE. INLAND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH VFR PREVAILING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES THIS EVENING...BUT DURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE TOO BRIEF TO WARRANT AN SCEC HEADLINE. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE RE-ORIENTS ITSELF...BUT SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN
BELOW CAUTION SPEEDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR A FEW HOURS EACH
EVENING DURING THE DAILY WIND SURGE AROUND SUNSET. SEAS OFFSHORE
MAY APPROACH CAUTION CRITERIA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  88  66  89 /  40  40  20  10
SSI  72  83  71  82 /  10  10  20  20
JAX  69  86  67  85 /  10  10  20  20
SGJ  72  84  72  83 /  10  10  10  20
GNV  67  90  66  89 /  50  10  10  20
OCF  69  90  68  88 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/NELSON/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 262109
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
509 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE
75 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH TONIGHT):
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED INLAND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM ALONG THE SLOWLY MOVING GULF COAST SEABREEZE.
EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO BEING BEHIND THE
ATLANTIC COAST SEABREEZE AND ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE  AND DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE STORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WILL BE WORKING WITH CAPE
VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 25 KNOTS.
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND APPRECIABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALL COMBINE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO
SLOW STORM MOTION. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH A SLOW DRIFT EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL ALSO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. ALL CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WITH NO
RAIN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO DEEP LAYER DRY AIR  ADVECTING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...FEATURING RIDGING
ALOFT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SEABOARD...WITH "BERMUDA"
SURFACE RIDGING MAINTAINING A DEEP ONSHORE WIND REGIME LOCALLY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL GLIDE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY...IMPACTING THE WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION
DEVELOPING MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. A VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT
AIR MASS...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS...WILL ADVECT WESTWARD AND COVER MUCH OF OUR
REGION FROM LATE TOMORROW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH DEWPOINTS INLAND FALLING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW MAY DRIVE A FEW
SHOWERS ONSHORE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90
WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE
MID 60S INLAND...WITH LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS
STATES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER OUR REGION...ALBEIT AT A WEAKENED STATE.
LESS SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
COAST SEA BREEZES THIS WEEKEND. LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY INLAND...WITH
ISOLATED NOCTURNAL AND MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY FINALLY BRING MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO COASTAL LOCATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
KEEP SCATTERED DIURNAL COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR 90 INLAND...AND THE MID 80S AT THE
COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. ONE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE GNV TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. WILL JUST CARRY VCTS FOR NOW SINCE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF GAINESVILLE. INLAND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH VFR PREVAILING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES THIS EVENING...BUT DURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE TOO BRIEF TO WARRANT AN SCEC HEADLINE. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE RE-ORIENTS ITSELF...BUT SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN
BELOW CAUTION SPEEDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR A FEW HOURS EACH
EVENING DURING THE DAILY WIND SURGE AROUND SUNSET. SEAS OFFSHORE
MAY APPROACH CAUTION CRITERIA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  88  66  89 /  40  40  20  10
SSI  72  83  71  82 /  10  10  20  20
JAX  69  86  67  85 /  10  10  20  20
SGJ  72  84  72  83 /  10  10  10  20
GNV  67  90  66  89 /  50  10  10  20
OCF  69  90  68  88 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/NELSON/WALSH




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