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000
FXUS62 KJAX 230843
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
443 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

...HEAT ADVISORY TODAY...

.SHORT TERM...
THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE WILL FIRMLY REMAIN WITH US TODAY WITH TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 90S
TO 100 DEGREES...NEARLY AN EXACT REPEAT OF WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.
MAX HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 108 DEGREES WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING 110 DEGREES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES (1000-850MB) AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE A TAD
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY BUT WE ARE EXPECTING MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
SO THOSE TWO FACTORS SHOULD OFFSET EACH OTHER AND RESULT IN
SIMILAR TEMPS BUT THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL WILD CARD THAT COULD COME
INTO PLAY. A FEW OF THE MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE SREF AND WRF-
ARW...ARE INDICATING AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...STARTING AS EARLY AS 2 PM...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY HAVE
AN IMPACT ON MAX TEMPS TODAY. HAVE INCREASED MAX POPS TODAY INTO
THE 30-40% RANGE...MAINLY IN NE FL...BUT THIS COULD END UP BEING
TOO CONSERVATIVE IF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ARE CORRECT.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL CARRY WITH IT
A THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT. PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S RESULTING IN A MUGGY NIGHT.

SUN/MON...
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SE GA EARLY SUNDAY CROSSING NE
FL SUNDAY AFTN...EXITING INTO CENTRAL FL SUN NIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTN AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER OUR REGION. STORMS WILL MOVE WEST TO INLAND LOCATIONS LATE IN
THE DAY SUN AND MON. WILL KEEP POPS HIGH END CHANCE ON
SUNDAY...THEN ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE HOT ON SUNDAY WITH
MID/UPPER 90S INLAND AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 105. THE HEAT WAVE
ENDS ON MONDAY AS NELY FLOW INCREASES AND HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90
INLAND WITH MID/UPPER 80S COAST. WINDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE
15-20 MPH AND GUSTY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM IS DEPENDENT ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR HISPANIOLA. MAJORITY OF MODELS
KEEP THE SYSTEM EAST OF OUR AREA...WITH NELY FLOW CONTINUING
TUE/WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY END OF THE
WEEK WITH WINDS BECOMING SLY. AT THIS TIME...WE EXPECT WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTN/EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS NE FL. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WATERS AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM NEARS THE AREA. GFS SHOWS A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S MID WEEK
THEN 90-95 BY FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY AT THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL JUST START OUT WITH VCTS AT ALL NE FL TAF
SITES UNTIL TIMING AND LOCATION BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCAL SEA BREEZES WILL BRING A SHIFT TO ONSHORE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY BEHIND
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST AND A
POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM BUT FOR
NOW GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WE WILL CAP THE
SEAS AT 7 FT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY THEN MODERATE RISK EXPECTED TOMORROW
AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A FEW RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO AT LEAST BE TIED TODAY.

RECORD HIGHS  TODAY
JAX          98/1966
GNV          99/1902
AMG          99/1968
SSI          95/2006

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 100  77  96  75 /  20  20  50  50
SSI  95  79  90  78 /  20  20  40  40
JAX  98  78  93  76 /  30  20  40  40
SGJ  94  77  90  77 /  20  20  40  40
GNV  98  76  94  74 /  40  30  50  50
OCF  97  76  95  74 /  40  30  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/TRABERT





000
FXUS62 KJAX 230843
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
443 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

...HEAT ADVISORY TODAY...

.SHORT TERM...
THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE WILL FIRMLY REMAIN WITH US TODAY WITH TEMPS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 90S
TO 100 DEGREES...NEARLY AN EXACT REPEAT OF WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.
MAX HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 108 DEGREES WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING 110 DEGREES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES (1000-850MB) AND 850MB TEMPS WILL BE A TAD
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY BUT WE ARE EXPECTING MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
SO THOSE TWO FACTORS SHOULD OFFSET EACH OTHER AND RESULT IN
SIMILAR TEMPS BUT THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL WILD CARD THAT COULD COME
INTO PLAY. A FEW OF THE MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE SREF AND WRF-
ARW...ARE INDICATING AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...STARTING AS EARLY AS 2 PM...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY HAVE
AN IMPACT ON MAX TEMPS TODAY. HAVE INCREASED MAX POPS TODAY INTO
THE 30-40% RANGE...MAINLY IN NE FL...BUT THIS COULD END UP BEING
TOO CONSERVATIVE IF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ARE CORRECT.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL CARRY WITH IT
A THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT. PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S RESULTING IN A MUGGY NIGHT.

SUN/MON...
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SE GA EARLY SUNDAY CROSSING NE
FL SUNDAY AFTN...EXITING INTO CENTRAL FL SUN NIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTN AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER OUR REGION. STORMS WILL MOVE WEST TO INLAND LOCATIONS LATE IN
THE DAY SUN AND MON. WILL KEEP POPS HIGH END CHANCE ON
SUNDAY...THEN ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE HOT ON SUNDAY WITH
MID/UPPER 90S INLAND AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 105. THE HEAT WAVE
ENDS ON MONDAY AS NELY FLOW INCREASES AND HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90
INLAND WITH MID/UPPER 80S COAST. WINDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE
15-20 MPH AND GUSTY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM IS DEPENDENT ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR HISPANIOLA. MAJORITY OF MODELS
KEEP THE SYSTEM EAST OF OUR AREA...WITH NELY FLOW CONTINUING
TUE/WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY END OF THE
WEEK WITH WINDS BECOMING SLY. AT THIS TIME...WE EXPECT WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION EACH AFTN/EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS NE FL. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WATERS AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM NEARS THE AREA. GFS SHOWS A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW LATE IN THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S MID WEEK
THEN 90-95 BY FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY AT THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL JUST START OUT WITH VCTS AT ALL NE FL TAF
SITES UNTIL TIMING AND LOCATION BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCAL SEA BREEZES WILL BRING A SHIFT TO ONSHORE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY BEHIND
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST AND A
POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING WELL EAST OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM BUT FOR
NOW GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WE WILL CAP THE
SEAS AT 7 FT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY THEN MODERATE RISK EXPECTED TOMORROW
AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A FEW RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO AT LEAST BE TIED TODAY.

RECORD HIGHS  TODAY
JAX          98/1966
GNV          99/1902
AMG          99/1968
SSI          95/2006

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 100  77  96  75 /  20  20  50  50
SSI  95  79  90  78 /  20  20  40  40
JAX  98  78  93  76 /  30  20  40  40
SGJ  94  77  90  77 /  20  20  40  40
GNV  98  76  94  74 /  40  30  50  50
OCF  97  76  95  74 /  40  30  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/TRABERT






000
FXUS62 KJAX 230039
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
839 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED CONVECTION OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOMEWHAT GREATER COVERAGE IN OUR SRN COUNTIES WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE...ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING WEAK
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH BACKING FLOW PATTERN...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIR AT 800MB HELPING TO CAP MIXED- PARCELS...THUS LIMITING THE
ACTIVITY JAX-TAE NORTHWARD.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...CURRENT LOW TEMP FORECAST
LOOKS FINE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY TOMORROW...COULD SEE A FEW RECORDS REACHED. HEAT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES PLANNED IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
AND 2-3 FT SEAS THRU SUNDAY WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK SATURDAY...WITH MODERATE RISK POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75 100  77  97 /  20  20  20  50
SSI  78  97  79  90 /  10  20  20  30
JAX  76  99  78  94 /  10  20  20  40
SGJ  76  95  77  91 /  10  20  20  30
GNV  74  98  76  94 /  20  30  30  50
OCF  74  97  76  95 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/ZIBURA/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KJAX 230039
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
839 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED CONVECTION OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOMEWHAT GREATER COVERAGE IN OUR SRN COUNTIES WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE...ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING WEAK
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH BACKING FLOW PATTERN...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIR AT 800MB HELPING TO CAP MIXED- PARCELS...THUS LIMITING THE
ACTIVITY JAX-TAE NORTHWARD.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...CURRENT LOW TEMP FORECAST
LOOKS FINE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY TOMORROW...COULD SEE A FEW RECORDS REACHED. HEAT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES PLANNED IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
AND 2-3 FT SEAS THRU SUNDAY WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK SATURDAY...WITH MODERATE RISK POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75 100  77  97 /  20  20  20  50
SSI  78  97  79  90 /  10  20  20  30
JAX  76  99  78  94 /  10  20  20  40
SGJ  76  95  77  91 /  10  20  20  30
GNV  74  98  76  94 /  20  30  30  50
OCF  74  97  76  95 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/ZIBURA/WALSH








000
FXUS62 KJAX 221840
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
235 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.CURRENTLY...HOT TEMPS THIS AFTN WITH READINGS AT 2 PM SHOWING MID
TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES OF ABOUT 103 TO 107. WE REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA CLOSE TO 108 AT TIMES THIS AFTN.
VIS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW CU AND A COUPLE VERY SMALL CONVECTIVE
CELLS AT THIS TIME. ENHANCED CONVECTIVE CHANCES CONTINUE MAINLY
INLAND...NEAR I-95 FIRST AND INLAND FROM MARION TO SUWANNEE VALLEY
AREA. MAINLY SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER INLAND NE FL S OF I-10.

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
EVENING WHICH SHOULD FADE GRADUALLY BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT MUGGY
IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST PART WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

SATURDAY...THE 850 MB TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND WE FACE SIMILAR
DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE AFTN. BASED THIS ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH
RECORD HIGHS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO NEAR 110.
BASED ON THIS WILL HOIST A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW. MODELS
SUGGEST ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE AFTN DUE TO AFTN
HEATING AND SEA BREEZES MAINLY OVER OUR INLAND NE FL ZONES WHERE WE
HAVE ADVERTISED 20-30% WITH 15-20% OVER SE GA. RECORD TEMPS ARE
NOTED BELOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RESIDUAL
STORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING BY THE OVERNIGHT. FOR
SUNDAY/MONDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SE GA SUNDAY
CROSSING NE FL SUNDAY NIGHT...EXITING INTO CENTRAL FL ON
MONDAY. WITH NE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY
AFTN...STORMS WILL MOVE WEST TO INLAND LOCATIONS LATE IN THE
DAY ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
KEEP POPS HIGH END CHANCE ON SUNDAY...WITH LESSER CHANCES ON
MONDAY AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT JUST
ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY...ANOTHER RATHER HOT DAY IS IN
STORE WITH MID/UPPER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL DOWN MONDAY AS NE FLOW INCREASES...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90
INLAND WITH UPPER 80S COAST.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM REMAINS DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. WITH A GROWING NUMBER OF MODELS DEPICTING THE
SYSTEM REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE OPEN WESTERN
ATLANTIC...DIRECT EFFECTS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY. RATHER STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH BREEZY NE WINDS FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND SOME 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN IS CURRENTLY
BEING EXPERIENCED. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR COASTAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT  MOVING INLAND EARLY MORNING THEN CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE INTERIOR AND FOCUSING NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE EACH DAY.
WILL USE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...WITH
CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN FOR
LATE WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILS. ISOLD TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE REST OF THE AFTN
AND BASED ON GUIDANCE INCLUDED A SHORT TEMPO GROUPS FOR GNV LATER
THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS WITH WIND SHIFTS AT SSI...JAX...CRG
AND VQQ DUE TO E COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
LOCAL SEA BREEZES KICKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT FCST TO PUSH IN ON SUNDAY WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS POSSIBLE BY MON THROUGH LATE TUE MAINLY OFFSHORE
WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY THEN A MODERATE RISK WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.

RECORD HIGHS  TODAY    SAT 8/23
JAX          100/1900   98/1966
GNV           99/1983   99/1902
AMG          100/1968   99/1968
SSI           97/1966   95/2006

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75 100  77  97 /  20  20  10  50
SSI  78  97  79  90 /  10  20  20  30
JAX  76  99  78  94 /  10  20  20  40
SGJ  76  95  77  91 /  10  20  20  30
GNV  74  98  76  94 /  30  30  30  50
OCF  74  97  76  95 /  30  30  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/ALLEN/WALKER







000
FXUS62 KJAX 221840
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
235 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.CURRENTLY...HOT TEMPS THIS AFTN WITH READINGS AT 2 PM SHOWING MID
TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES OF ABOUT 103 TO 107. WE REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA CLOSE TO 108 AT TIMES THIS AFTN.
VIS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW CU AND A COUPLE VERY SMALL CONVECTIVE
CELLS AT THIS TIME. ENHANCED CONVECTIVE CHANCES CONTINUE MAINLY
INLAND...NEAR I-95 FIRST AND INLAND FROM MARION TO SUWANNEE VALLEY
AREA. MAINLY SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER INLAND NE FL S OF I-10.

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
EVENING WHICH SHOULD FADE GRADUALLY BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT MUGGY
IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST PART WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

SATURDAY...THE 850 MB TEMPS LOOK SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND WE FACE SIMILAR
DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE AFTN. BASED THIS ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH
RECORD HIGHS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO NEAR 110.
BASED ON THIS WILL HOIST A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW. MODELS
SUGGEST ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE AFTN DUE TO AFTN
HEATING AND SEA BREEZES MAINLY OVER OUR INLAND NE FL ZONES WHERE WE
HAVE ADVERTISED 20-30% WITH 15-20% OVER SE GA. RECORD TEMPS ARE
NOTED BELOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RESIDUAL
STORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING BY THE OVERNIGHT. FOR
SUNDAY/MONDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SE GA SUNDAY
CROSSING NE FL SUNDAY NIGHT...EXITING INTO CENTRAL FL ON
MONDAY. WITH NE FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY
AFTN...STORMS WILL MOVE WEST TO INLAND LOCATIONS LATE IN THE
DAY ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
KEEP POPS HIGH END CHANCE ON SUNDAY...WITH LESSER CHANCES ON
MONDAY AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT JUST
ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY...ANOTHER RATHER HOT DAY IS IN
STORE WITH MID/UPPER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL DOWN MONDAY AS NE FLOW INCREASES...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90
INLAND WITH UPPER 80S COAST.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM REMAINS DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. WITH A GROWING NUMBER OF MODELS DEPICTING THE
SYSTEM REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE OPEN WESTERN
ATLANTIC...DIRECT EFFECTS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY. RATHER STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH BREEZY NE WINDS FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND SOME 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN IS CURRENTLY
BEING EXPERIENCED. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR COASTAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT  MOVING INLAND EARLY MORNING THEN CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE INTERIOR AND FOCUSING NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE EACH DAY.
WILL USE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...WITH
CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON. THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN FOR
LATE WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILS. ISOLD TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE REST OF THE AFTN
AND BASED ON GUIDANCE INCLUDED A SHORT TEMPO GROUPS FOR GNV LATER
THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS WITH WIND SHIFTS AT SSI...JAX...CRG
AND VQQ DUE TO E COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
LOCAL SEA BREEZES KICKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT FCST TO PUSH IN ON SUNDAY WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDS POSSIBLE BY MON THROUGH LATE TUE MAINLY OFFSHORE
WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY THEN A MODERATE RISK WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.

RECORD HIGHS  TODAY    SAT 8/23
JAX          100/1900   98/1966
GNV           99/1983   99/1902
AMG          100/1968   99/1968
SSI           97/1966   95/2006

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75 100  77  97 /  20  20  10  50
SSI  78  97  79  90 /  10  20  20  30
JAX  76  99  78  94 /  10  20  20  40
SGJ  76  95  77  91 /  10  20  20  30
GNV  74  98  76  94 /  30  30  30  50
OCF  74  97  76  95 /  30  30  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/ALLEN/WALKER






000
FXUS62 KJAX 221326
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
926 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...HOT WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...

.UPDATE...
TODAY...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION WITH
MODEL DATA SHOWING 1000-850 MB TEMPS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE VALUES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE AREA AND SO NO REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE CURRENT
FORECAST WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT TODAY IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
100. DEEP LAYER FLOW IS MAINLY NLY. HEAT INDICES (HI) WILL BE IN
THE DANGER CATEGORY BUT FORTUNATELY DEWPOINTS DO MIX OUT A BIT IN
THE AFTN KEEPING (HI) BELOW 110. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO UP TEMP SLIGHTLY
OVER SE GA WHERE HOTTEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OF ABOUT 100 DEG...WITH
12Z JAX SOUNDING INDICATING 925-850 MB TEMPS ABOUT 0.5 TO 1 DEG
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. NEAR RECORD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

RAIN CHANCES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AS SUBSIDENCE ACTS TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 95 DEG WILL HELP DELAY
DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTN...AS E COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES INLAND AND MERGES WITH W COAST SEA BREEZE AND NWLY SFC FLOW.
JUST ISOLD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREVAIL OVER INLAND AREAS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR WHERE MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY. VCTS AT GNV LOOKS GOOD WHERE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR 20-30% AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW AROUND 5-10 KT WILL TURN TO ONSHORE IN THE
AFTN AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS OF 1-3 FT TODAY. AS FAR AS THE
OUTLOOK...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED NORTHEAST SURGE WILL
BRING AT LEAST SCEC CONDITIONS (15 TO 20 KTS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS)
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY THEN A MODERATE RISK WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.

RECORD HIGHS  TODAY    SAT 8/23
JAX          100/1900   98/1966
GNV           99/1983   99/1902
AMG          100/1968   99/1968
SSI           97/1966   95/2006

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 100  74 100  77 /  20  20  20  20
SSI  94  78  95  79 /  10  10  20  20
JAX  97  75  99  78 /  10  10  30  30
SGJ  93  76  95  78 /  10  10  30  30
GNV  97  74  99  76 /  30  30  30  30
OCF  96  74  98  76 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/WALKER





000
FXUS62 KJAX 221326
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
926 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...HOT WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...

.UPDATE...
TODAY...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION WITH
MODEL DATA SHOWING 1000-850 MB TEMPS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE VALUES. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE AREA AND SO NO REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE CURRENT
FORECAST WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT TODAY IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
100. DEEP LAYER FLOW IS MAINLY NLY. HEAT INDICES (HI) WILL BE IN
THE DANGER CATEGORY BUT FORTUNATELY DEWPOINTS DO MIX OUT A BIT IN
THE AFTN KEEPING (HI) BELOW 110. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO UP TEMP SLIGHTLY
OVER SE GA WHERE HOTTEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OF ABOUT 100 DEG...WITH
12Z JAX SOUNDING INDICATING 925-850 MB TEMPS ABOUT 0.5 TO 1 DEG
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. NEAR RECORD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

RAIN CHANCES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AS SUBSIDENCE ACTS TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 95 DEG WILL HELP DELAY
DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTN...AS E COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES INLAND AND MERGES WITH W COAST SEA BREEZE AND NWLY SFC FLOW.
JUST ISOLD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PREVAIL OVER INLAND AREAS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR WHERE MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY. VCTS AT GNV LOOKS GOOD WHERE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR 20-30% AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW AROUND 5-10 KT WILL TURN TO ONSHORE IN THE
AFTN AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS OF 1-3 FT TODAY. AS FAR AS THE
OUTLOOK...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED NORTHEAST SURGE WILL
BRING AT LEAST SCEC CONDITIONS (15 TO 20 KTS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS)
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY THEN A MODERATE RISK WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.

RECORD HIGHS  TODAY    SAT 8/23
JAX          100/1900   98/1966
GNV           99/1983   99/1902
AMG          100/1968   99/1968
SSI           97/1966   95/2006

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 100  74 100  77 /  20  20  20  20
SSI  94  78  95  79 /  10  10  20  20
JAX  97  75  99  78 /  10  10  30  30
SGJ  93  76  95  78 /  10  10  30  30
GNV  97  74  99  76 /  30  30  30  30
OCF  96  74  98  76 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/WALKER






000
FXUS62 KJAX 220906
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
506 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...HOT WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TODAY...EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREES TODAY AND
TOMORROW. HEAT INDICES WILL AVERAGE 105 TO 108 DEGREES. JUST ABOUT
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING DEWPOINTS GETTING MIXED DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. WE ERRED ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND WENT
A LITTLE ABOVE CONSENSUS BUT HEAT INDICES STILL COMING UP
GENERALLY IN THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE. WE WILL RETAIN HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
ON SATURDAY WHEN HEAT INDICES COULD END UP BEING THE HIGHEST OF
THE WEEK WITH VALUES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 110 DEGREES IN A FEW
SPOTS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ACTS
TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. A FEW STORMS THOUGH WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS INLAND NE FL AS THE ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE MOVES ALL THE WAY TO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES AND CLASHES
WITH THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT BETTER
CHANCES FOR STORMS ON SATURDAY AND WE WILL GO WITH POPS OF 30-40%
ACROSS NE FL WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ENHANCING CONVECTION SUN AFTN. A N-NE STEERING FLOW WILL
PUSH THE STORMS TO THE FL GULF COAST LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE CAPPED
POPS AT 50% FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S WITH THE HOTTEST ZONES
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM /MON-THU/...
FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DEPENDENT ON THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM REMAINING EAST OF OUR AREA. THE HOT SPELL WILL
BE BROKEN WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO A MORE NORMAL RANGE. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE ATLC COAST TO LOWER
90S WELL INLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BECOME WEDGED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD CREATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY.
NELY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AROUND 15-20 MPH NEAR THE COAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MID WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH AND
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS COASTAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MOVING INLAND EARLY MORNING THEN
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND FOCUSING NER THE I-75
CORRIDOR LATE EACH DAY. WILL KEEP SCTD SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NE FL
AND ISOLD TO SCTD OVER SE GA CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TODAY WITH VCTS AT GNV WHERE A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOCAL SEA
BREEZES KICKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED NORTHEAST SURGE WILL BRING AT LEAST SCEC CONDITIONS
(15 TO 20 KTS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS) INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY THEN A MODERATE RISK WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.

RECORD HIGHS  TODAY    SAT 8/23
JAX          100/1900   98/1966
GNV           99/1983   99/1902
AMG          100/1968   99/1968
SSI           97/1966   95/2006

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 100  75 100  77 /  20  20  20  20
SSI  95  79  95  79 /  10  10  20  20
JAX  98  76  99  78 /  10  10  30  30
SGJ  94  77  95  78 /  10  10  30  30
GNV  98  74  99  76 /  30  30  30  30
OCF  96  74  98  76 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/TRABERT





000
FXUS62 KJAX 220906
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
506 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...HOT WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TODAY...EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREES TODAY AND
TOMORROW. HEAT INDICES WILL AVERAGE 105 TO 108 DEGREES. JUST ABOUT
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING DEWPOINTS GETTING MIXED DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. WE ERRED ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND WENT
A LITTLE ABOVE CONSENSUS BUT HEAT INDICES STILL COMING UP
GENERALLY IN THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE. WE WILL RETAIN HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
ON SATURDAY WHEN HEAT INDICES COULD END UP BEING THE HIGHEST OF
THE WEEK WITH VALUES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 110 DEGREES IN A FEW
SPOTS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ACTS
TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. A FEW STORMS THOUGH WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS INLAND NE FL AS THE ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE MOVES ALL THE WAY TO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES AND CLASHES
WITH THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT BETTER
CHANCES FOR STORMS ON SATURDAY AND WE WILL GO WITH POPS OF 30-40%
ACROSS NE FL WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ENHANCING CONVECTION SUN AFTN. A N-NE STEERING FLOW WILL
PUSH THE STORMS TO THE FL GULF COAST LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE CAPPED
POPS AT 50% FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S WITH THE HOTTEST ZONES
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM /MON-THU/...
FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DEPENDENT ON THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM REMAINING EAST OF OUR AREA. THE HOT SPELL WILL
BE BROKEN WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO A MORE NORMAL RANGE. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE ATLC COAST TO LOWER
90S WELL INLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BECOME WEDGED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD CREATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY.
NELY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AROUND 15-20 MPH NEAR THE COAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MID WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH AND
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS COASTAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MOVING INLAND EARLY MORNING THEN
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND FOCUSING NER THE I-75
CORRIDOR LATE EACH DAY. WILL KEEP SCTD SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NE FL
AND ISOLD TO SCTD OVER SE GA CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TODAY WITH VCTS AT GNV WHERE A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOCAL SEA
BREEZES KICKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED NORTHEAST SURGE WILL BRING AT LEAST SCEC CONDITIONS
(15 TO 20 KTS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS) INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY THEN A MODERATE RISK WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.

RECORD HIGHS  TODAY    SAT 8/23
JAX          100/1900   98/1966
GNV           99/1983   99/1902
AMG          100/1968   99/1968
SSI           97/1966   95/2006

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 100  75 100  77 /  20  20  20  20
SSI  95  79  95  79 /  10  10  20  20
JAX  98  76  99  78 /  10  10  30  30
SGJ  94  77  95  78 /  10  10  30  30
GNV  98  74  99  76 /  30  30  30  30
OCF  96  74  98  76 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/TRABERT






000
FXUS62 KJAX 220141
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
941 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

...VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

.UPDATE...
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1019 MILLIBARS)
COVERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO. ALOFT...EXPANSIVE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING IS CENTERED
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS RIDGING KEPT MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA DRY TODAY...AND THE DAILY RECORD HIGH AT SAINT SIMONS
ISLAND (98) WAS TIED. AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPED SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10...AND RIDGING ALOFT TO OUR WEST ADVECTED ACTIVITY
SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD. MERGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONGREGATED OVER
NORTH CENTRAL FL AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH A FEW PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PUTNAM AND
ALACHUA COUNTIES. LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO SPARK
CONVECTION ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR FROM JUST EAST OF LAKE
CITY SOUTHWARD TO OCALA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY S-SW...AND COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...WITH SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST GA
REMAINING FAIR. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID 70S INLAND...AND NEAR 80
ALONG THE ST. JOHNS BASIN AND IN COASTAL LOCATIONS. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVY RAINS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE.

A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. POSTED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS ON FRI...AS RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE KEEP CONVECTION
AT A MINIMUM UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 95-100 INLAND INLAND...WITH THE DAILY RECORD HIGH AT
ALMA BEING CHALLENGED. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO MOVE WELL INLAND BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY COLLIDE OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY...WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP. THE EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE
COAST IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
WILL PEAK IN THE 106-111 RANGE...WITH SIMILAR VALUES EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...

JAX - 100 (1900)
GNV - 99 (1983)
AMG - 100 (1968)
SSI - 97 (1966)

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WIND SURGE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WILL BRING SPEEDS UP
TOWARDS CAUTION CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...WITH AN EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SWITCHING WINDS TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH A E/NE WIND SURGE FORECAST
TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY APPROACH
CAUTION CRITERIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH
DEVELOPING EASTERLY SWELL...WITH SCEC SEAS LIKELY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75 101  76  99 /  10  20  20  20
SSI  78  93  78  96 /  10  20  20  20
JAX  76  99  77  99 /  10  20  20  20
SGJ  76  93  77  94 /  10  20  20  20
GNV  74  98  75  97 /  50  30  30  20
OCF  74  97  75  96 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/ZIBURA/WALKER








000
FXUS62 KJAX 220141
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
941 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

...VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

.UPDATE...
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1019 MILLIBARS)
COVERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO. ALOFT...EXPANSIVE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING IS CENTERED
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS RIDGING KEPT MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA DRY TODAY...AND THE DAILY RECORD HIGH AT SAINT SIMONS
ISLAND (98) WAS TIED. AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPED SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10...AND RIDGING ALOFT TO OUR WEST ADVECTED ACTIVITY
SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD. MERGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONGREGATED OVER
NORTH CENTRAL FL AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH A FEW PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PUTNAM AND
ALACHUA COUNTIES. LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO SPARK
CONVECTION ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR FROM JUST EAST OF LAKE
CITY SOUTHWARD TO OCALA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY S-SW...AND COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...WITH SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST GA
REMAINING FAIR. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID 70S INLAND...AND NEAR 80
ALONG THE ST. JOHNS BASIN AND IN COASTAL LOCATIONS. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVY RAINS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE.

A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. POSTED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS ON FRI...AS RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE KEEP CONVECTION
AT A MINIMUM UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 95-100 INLAND INLAND...WITH THE DAILY RECORD HIGH AT
ALMA BEING CHALLENGED. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZES TO MOVE WELL INLAND BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY COLLIDE OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY...WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP. THE EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP HIGHS AT THE
COAST IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
WILL PEAK IN THE 106-111 RANGE...WITH SIMILAR VALUES EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...

JAX - 100 (1900)
GNV - 99 (1983)
AMG - 100 (1968)
SSI - 97 (1966)

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WIND SURGE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WILL BRING SPEEDS UP
TOWARDS CAUTION CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY...WITH AN EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SWITCHING WINDS TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH A E/NE WIND SURGE FORECAST
TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY APPROACH
CAUTION CRITERIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH
DEVELOPING EASTERLY SWELL...WITH SCEC SEAS LIKELY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75 101  76  99 /  10  20  20  20
SSI  78  93  78  96 /  10  20  20  20
JAX  76  99  77  99 /  10  20  20  20
SGJ  76  93  77  94 /  10  20  20  20
GNV  74  98  75  97 /  50  30  30  20
OCF  74  97  75  96 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/ZIBURA/WALKER









000
FXUS62 KJAX 211834 CCA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

...VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING JUST TO THE WEST IS BRINGING BELOW NORMAL PRECIP COVERAGE
AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
RETAIN THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL 8 PM. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP FROM THE SUWANNEE VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. WITH THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MOVING INLAND LATER THIS
AFTN...EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY NE
FL. WILL RETAIN ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...WITH DRY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IN STORE FRIDAY AS STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES.
SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY LATE AFTN. WITH THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT...WILL
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY FOR NOW.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...

JAX - 100 (1900)
GNV - 99 (1983)
AMG - 100 (1968)
SSI - 97 (1966)


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST SUNDAY...A COOL FRONT
WILL PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE COOLING...
BUT LIKELY ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A FEW DEGREES.

HOW FAR THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
TROPICAL SYSTEM. WITH MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE EASTERLY TRACK...
WOULD EXPECT THIS SURFACE COOL FRONT TO CLEAR THE AREA TO THE
SOUTH EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WOULD BRING A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURE READINGS...OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

NOT MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...AS THIS PERIOD WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON TRACK OF
TROPICAL SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME TRENDING FORECAST GRIDS TOWARD
A SYSTEM WHICH HEADS EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK...DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH ISOLATED TSTM COVERAGE
FOR MOST AREAS...HAVE INCLUDED VCTS ONLY AT GNV LATE THIS AFTN
INTO EARLY EVENING. PATCHY FOG INLAND MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO INCLUDE AT VQQ/GNV AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW UNDER 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
SEABREEZES EACH AFTN WHICH WILL TURN NEARSHORE FLOW TO THE SE.
E/NE WIND SURGE IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY...THEN PERSISTING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY
APPROACH CAUTION CRITERIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL INCREASE
WITH DEVELOPING EASTERLY SWELL...WITH SCEC SEAS LIKELY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAINLY OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75 101  76  99 /  10  20  20  20
SSI  78  93  78  96 /  10  20  20  20
JAX  76  99  77  99 /  10  20  20  20
SGJ  76  93  77  94 /  10  20  20  20
GNV  74  98  75  97 /  20  30  30  20
OCF  74  97  75  96 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE












000
FXUS62 KJAX 211834 CCA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

...VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING JUST TO THE WEST IS BRINGING BELOW NORMAL PRECIP COVERAGE
AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
RETAIN THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL 8 PM. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP FROM THE SUWANNEE VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. WITH THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MOVING INLAND LATER THIS
AFTN...EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY NE
FL. WILL RETAIN ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...WITH DRY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IN STORE FRIDAY AS STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES.
SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY LATE AFTN. WITH THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT...WILL
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY FOR NOW.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...

JAX - 100 (1900)
GNV - 99 (1983)
AMG - 100 (1968)
SSI - 97 (1966)


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST SUNDAY...A COOL FRONT
WILL PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE COOLING...
BUT LIKELY ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A FEW DEGREES.

HOW FAR THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
TROPICAL SYSTEM. WITH MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE EASTERLY TRACK...
WOULD EXPECT THIS SURFACE COOL FRONT TO CLEAR THE AREA TO THE
SOUTH EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WOULD BRING A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURE READINGS...OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

NOT MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...AS THIS PERIOD WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON TRACK OF
TROPICAL SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME TRENDING FORECAST GRIDS TOWARD
A SYSTEM WHICH HEADS EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK...DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH ISOLATED TSTM COVERAGE
FOR MOST AREAS...HAVE INCLUDED VCTS ONLY AT GNV LATE THIS AFTN
INTO EARLY EVENING. PATCHY FOG INLAND MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO INCLUDE AT VQQ/GNV AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW UNDER 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
SEABREEZES EACH AFTN WHICH WILL TURN NEARSHORE FLOW TO THE SE.
E/NE WIND SURGE IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY...THEN PERSISTING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY
APPROACH CAUTION CRITERIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL INCREASE
WITH DEVELOPING EASTERLY SWELL...WITH SCEC SEAS LIKELY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAINLY OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75 101  76  99 /  10  20  20  20
SSI  78  93  78  96 /  10  20  20  20
JAX  76  99  77  99 /  10  20  20  20
SGJ  76  93  77  94 /  10  20  20  20
GNV  74  98  75  97 /  20  30  30  20
OCF  74  97  75  96 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE













000
FXUS62 KJAX 211830
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

...VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING JUST TO THE WEST IS BRINGING BELOW NORMAL PRECIP COVERAGE
AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
RETAIN THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL 8 PM. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP FROM THE SUWANNEE VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. WITH THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MOVING INLAND LATER THIS
AFTN...EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY NE
FL. WILL RETAIN ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...WITH DRY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IN STORE FRIDAY AS STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES.
SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY LATE AFTN. WITH THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT...WILL
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY FOR NOW.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...

JAX - 100 (1900)
GNV - 97 (2010)
AMG - 100 (1968)
SSI - 97 (1966)


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST SUNDAY...A COOL FRONT
WILL PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE COOLING...
BUT LIKELY ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A FEW DEGREES.

HOW FAR THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
TROPICAL SYSTEM. WITH MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE EASTERLY TRACK...
WOULD EXPECT THIS SURFACE COOL FRONT TO CLEAR THE AREA TO THE
SOUTH EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WOULD BRING A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURE READINGS...OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

NOT MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...AS THIS PERIOD WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON TRACK OF
TROPICAL SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME TRENDING FORECAST GRIDS TOWARD
A SYSTEM WHICH HEADS EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK...DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH ISOLATED TSTM COVERAGE
FOR MOST AREAS...HAVE INCLUDED VCTS ONLY AT GNV LATE THIS AFTN
INTO EARLY EVENING. PATCHY FOG INLAND MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO INCLUDE AT VQQ/GNV AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW UNDER 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
SEABREEZES EACH AFTN WHICH WILL TURN NEARSHORE FLOW TO THE SE.
E/NE WIND SURGE IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY...THEN PERSISTING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY
APPROACH CAUTION CRITERIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL INCREASE
WITH DEVELOPING EASTERLY SWELL...WITH SCEC SEAS LIKELY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAINLY OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75 101  76  99 /  10  20  20  20
SSI  78  93  78  96 /  10  20  20  20
JAX  76  99  77  99 /  10  20  20  20
SGJ  76  93  77  94 /  10  20  20  20
GNV  74  98  75  97 /  20  30  30  20
OCF  74  97  75  96 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE









000
FXUS62 KJAX 211830
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

...VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING JUST TO THE WEST IS BRINGING BELOW NORMAL PRECIP COVERAGE
AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
RETAIN THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL 8 PM. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP FROM THE SUWANNEE VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. WITH THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MOVING INLAND LATER THIS
AFTN...EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY NE
FL. WILL RETAIN ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS LATE THIS
AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...WITH DRY...VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY IN STORE FRIDAY AS STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES.
SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY LATE AFTN. WITH THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT...WILL
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY FOR NOW.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY...

JAX - 100 (1900)
GNV - 97 (2010)
AMG - 100 (1968)
SSI - 97 (1966)


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE EAST COAST SUNDAY...A COOL FRONT
WILL PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE COOLING...
BUT LIKELY ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A FEW DEGREES.

HOW FAR THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
TROPICAL SYSTEM. WITH MODELS TRENDING TO A MORE EASTERLY TRACK...
WOULD EXPECT THIS SURFACE COOL FRONT TO CLEAR THE AREA TO THE
SOUTH EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WOULD BRING A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURE READINGS...OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

NOT MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...AS THIS PERIOD WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON TRACK OF
TROPICAL SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME TRENDING FORECAST GRIDS TOWARD
A SYSTEM WHICH HEADS EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK...DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH ISOLATED TSTM COVERAGE
FOR MOST AREAS...HAVE INCLUDED VCTS ONLY AT GNV LATE THIS AFTN
INTO EARLY EVENING. PATCHY FOG INLAND MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO INCLUDE AT VQQ/GNV AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW UNDER 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
SEABREEZES EACH AFTN WHICH WILL TURN NEARSHORE FLOW TO THE SE.
E/NE WIND SURGE IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY...THEN PERSISTING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY
APPROACH CAUTION CRITERIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL INCREASE
WITH DEVELOPING EASTERLY SWELL...WITH SCEC SEAS LIKELY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MAINLY OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75 101  76  99 /  10  20  20  20
SSI  78  93  78  96 /  10  20  20  20
JAX  76  99  77  99 /  10  20  20  20
SGJ  76  93  77  94 /  10  20  20  20
GNV  74  98  75  97 /  20  30  30  20
OCF  74  97  75  96 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE










000
FXUS62 KJAX 211218
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
818 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

...VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED. RIDGING TO THE WEST WILL RESULT IN
A VERY HOT AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 90S
COAST TO THE UPPER 90S/AROUND 100 INLAND. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S THIS AFTN...HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-110 CAN BE
EXPECTED...THUS WILL RETAIN THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS.
CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED WITH THE HIGH
JUST TO THE WEST...BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP LATE MOISTURE AND SMALL
SCALE BOUNDARY/SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS STILL WARRANT ISOLATED TO
LOW END SCATTERED POPS...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE INLAND LATE
THIS AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
FOR MOST AREAS...HAVE INCLUDED VCTS ONLY AT GNV LATE THIS AFTN
INTO EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOMING ONSHORE WITH THE
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE THIS AFTN.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 100  76 100  74 /  30  10  20  20
SSI  93  79  94  79 /  20   0  20  20
JAX  98  76  98  77 /  20  10  30  20
SGJ  93  76  93  77 /  20  10  20  20
GNV  97  75  96  75 /  30  30  30  30
OCF  96  74  96  75 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KJAX 211218
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
818 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

...VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED. RIDGING TO THE WEST WILL RESULT IN
A VERY HOT AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 90S
COAST TO THE UPPER 90S/AROUND 100 INLAND. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S THIS AFTN...HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-110 CAN BE
EXPECTED...THUS WILL RETAIN THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS.
CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED WITH THE HIGH
JUST TO THE WEST...BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP LATE MOISTURE AND SMALL
SCALE BOUNDARY/SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS STILL WARRANT ISOLATED TO
LOW END SCATTERED POPS...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE INLAND LATE
THIS AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
FOR MOST AREAS...HAVE INCLUDED VCTS ONLY AT GNV LATE THIS AFTN
INTO EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOMING ONSHORE WITH THE
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE THIS AFTN.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 100  76 100  74 /  30  10  20  20
SSI  93  79  94  79 /  20   0  20  20
JAX  98  76  98  77 /  20  10  30  20
SGJ  93  76  93  77 /  20  10  20  20
GNV  97  75  96  75 /  30  30  30  30
OCF  96  74  96  75 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/WALSH








000
FXUS62 KJAX 210819
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
419 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

...VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FADING
QUICKLY AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNRISE ACROSS ALL OF NE
FL/SE GA. SURFACE FLOW REMAINS LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST AND JUST ENOUGH
TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY 3-5 MILE VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE ACROSS INLAND AREAS...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN GRIDS/ZFP. TEMPS IN THE 70S EXCEPT
FOR LOWER 80S ALONG THE RIVER/COAST.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STACKED JUST WEST OF THE REGION DEEP
SOUTH AND STEERING FLOW HAS VEERED AROUND TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. EVENING BALLOON SOUNDING AT KJAX STILL SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND THIS WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 20-30% PCPN CHANCES...MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...JUST ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO TODAY HEAT WHICH IS THE MAIN STORY. HAVE KEPT
HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE AS STILL EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE
UPPER 90S WITH A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WILL STILL PUSH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS DOWN AROUND
70 DEGREES DURING PEAK HEATING AND HEAT INDICES WILL PUSH INTO THE
105 TO 110 RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND HEAT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT. MAX TEMPS WILL COME CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH LEVELS
WITH ALMA GEORGIA MOST LIKELY TO AT LEAST TIE THE RECORD AT THE
CENTURY MARK. ISOLATED STORMS WILL START TO DEVELOP IN THE HUMID
AIRMASS DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE CAP IS BROKEN IN
A FEW PLACES BUT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE ALONG THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE THAT WILL BE ALLOWED TO PUSH A
BIT FURTHER INLAND AS THE STEERING FLOW VEERS TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS LATE IN THE DAY OVER
INLAND MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS/FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT WILL LEAD TO SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH.
OF COURSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TONIGHT...WIDELY SCATTERED EARLY EVENING STORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE
I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD NE FL SHOULD FADE AND PUSH TOWARDS THE S/SW
AND EXPECT ALL ACTIVITY TO BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IN THE 70S INLAND
AND LOWER 80S RIVER/COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRI-SAT/...
THE HOT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREES EACH DAY AND HEAT
INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO TOP OUT IN THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEABREEZE DRIVEN STORMS OF THE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED VARIETY. NIGHTS WILL REMAIN WARM AND
MUGGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUN-WED/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH AT
LEAST SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK THOUGH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PLETHORA OF DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS FROM RUN TO RUN...THERE ARE BASICALLY TWO THAT SEEM MOST
PLAUSIBLE. ONE WOULD RESULT IN THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE BAHAMAS
AND THEN GETTING PICKED UP BY AN UPPER TROUGH AND SHUNTED NORTH
NORTHEAST...REMAINING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. THE OTHER SCENARIO
WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE AND STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL WEST
OF OUR AREA.

EITHER WAY...THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO HAVE ENOUGH OF A
STRONGHOLD TO KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM MOVING INTO OUR AREA. THE
LATEST RUN OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS FAVORED THE FIRST SCENARIO
DESCRIBED ABOVE...BUT IT IS STILL ENTIRELY POSSIBLE FOR THE MODELS
IN THE COMING DAYS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SECOND SCENARIO DESCRIBED
ABOVE...RESULTING IN A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THE BOTTOM LINE IS WE
HAVE DECIDED NOT TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE WHOLE PICTURE BEGINS TO COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...NO MVFR VSBYS IN FOG
EXPECTED AT INLAND TAF SITES. STEERING FLOW BECOMING N/NELY SHOULD
PUSH ANY DEVELOPING CONVECTION WEST OF KSSI/JAX METRO TAF SITES
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND BEST CHANCES WILL BE FELT AT
THE KGNV TAF SITE AFTER 20-21Z AND HAVE ADDED VCTS FOR NOW TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BACK TO VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOMING ONSHORE WILL LOCAL SELY
SEA BREEZES AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER SHIFT BACK
TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS TONIGHT. A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
REMAIN ON FRI/SAT WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES KICKING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. E/NELY WIND SURGE DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
IN EARLY NEXT WEEK AT SPEEDS CLOSE TO 15-20 KNOTS AND SCEC HEADLINES
MAY BE REQUIRED.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FYI...UPPER 90S (>= 97 F) HAVE NOT BEEN REACHED AT THE JACKSONVILLE
OR GAINESVILLE CLIMATE STATIONS SINCE AUGUST OF 2011.

RECORD HIGHS  TODAY 8/21  FRI 8/22  SAT/8/23
JACKSONVILLE   101/1900   100/1900   98/1966
GAINESVILLE     99/1983    99/1983   99/1902
ALMA, GA       100/1980   100/1968   99/1968
ST SIMONS ISLD  98/1983    97/1966   95/2006

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 100  76 101  76 /  30  10  20  20
SSI  93  79  94  80 /  20   0  20  20
JAX  98  76  99  78 /  20  10  30  30
SGJ  93  76  93  77 /  20  10  20  20
GNV  97  75  96  76 /  30  30  30  30
OCF  96  74  96  75 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/








000
FXUS62 KJAX 210819
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
419 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

...VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FADING
QUICKLY AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNRISE ACROSS ALL OF NE
FL/SE GA. SURFACE FLOW REMAINS LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST AND JUST ENOUGH
TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY 3-5 MILE VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE ACROSS INLAND AREAS...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN GRIDS/ZFP. TEMPS IN THE 70S EXCEPT
FOR LOWER 80S ALONG THE RIVER/COAST.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STACKED JUST WEST OF THE REGION DEEP
SOUTH AND STEERING FLOW HAS VEERED AROUND TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. EVENING BALLOON SOUNDING AT KJAX STILL SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND THIS WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 20-30% PCPN CHANCES...MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...JUST ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO TODAY HEAT WHICH IS THE MAIN STORY. HAVE KEPT
HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE AS STILL EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE
UPPER 90S WITH A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WILL STILL PUSH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS DOWN AROUND
70 DEGREES DURING PEAK HEATING AND HEAT INDICES WILL PUSH INTO THE
105 TO 110 RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND HEAT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT. MAX TEMPS WILL COME CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH LEVELS
WITH ALMA GEORGIA MOST LIKELY TO AT LEAST TIE THE RECORD AT THE
CENTURY MARK. ISOLATED STORMS WILL START TO DEVELOP IN THE HUMID
AIRMASS DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE CAP IS BROKEN IN
A FEW PLACES BUT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE ALONG THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE THAT WILL BE ALLOWED TO PUSH A
BIT FURTHER INLAND AS THE STEERING FLOW VEERS TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS LATE IN THE DAY OVER
INLAND MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS/FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT WILL LEAD TO SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH.
OF COURSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

TONIGHT...WIDELY SCATTERED EARLY EVENING STORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE
I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD NE FL SHOULD FADE AND PUSH TOWARDS THE S/SW
AND EXPECT ALL ACTIVITY TO BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IN THE 70S INLAND
AND LOWER 80S RIVER/COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRI-SAT/...
THE HOT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREES EACH DAY AND HEAT
INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO TOP OUT IN THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEABREEZE DRIVEN STORMS OF THE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED VARIETY. NIGHTS WILL REMAIN WARM AND
MUGGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUN-WED/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH AT
LEAST SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK THOUGH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PLETHORA OF DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS FROM RUN TO RUN...THERE ARE BASICALLY TWO THAT SEEM MOST
PLAUSIBLE. ONE WOULD RESULT IN THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE BAHAMAS
AND THEN GETTING PICKED UP BY AN UPPER TROUGH AND SHUNTED NORTH
NORTHEAST...REMAINING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. THE OTHER SCENARIO
WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE AND STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL WEST
OF OUR AREA.

EITHER WAY...THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO HAVE ENOUGH OF A
STRONGHOLD TO KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM MOVING INTO OUR AREA. THE
LATEST RUN OF THE MODEL SUITE HAS FAVORED THE FIRST SCENARIO
DESCRIBED ABOVE...BUT IT IS STILL ENTIRELY POSSIBLE FOR THE MODELS
IN THE COMING DAYS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SECOND SCENARIO DESCRIBED
ABOVE...RESULTING IN A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THE BOTTOM LINE IS WE
HAVE DECIDED NOT TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE WHOLE PICTURE BEGINS TO COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...NO MVFR VSBYS IN FOG
EXPECTED AT INLAND TAF SITES. STEERING FLOW BECOMING N/NELY SHOULD
PUSH ANY DEVELOPING CONVECTION WEST OF KSSI/JAX METRO TAF SITES
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND BEST CHANCES WILL BE FELT AT
THE KGNV TAF SITE AFTER 20-21Z AND HAVE ADDED VCTS FOR NOW TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BACK TO VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS THU NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOMING ONSHORE WILL LOCAL SELY
SEA BREEZES AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER SHIFT BACK
TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS TONIGHT. A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
REMAIN ON FRI/SAT WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES KICKING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. E/NELY WIND SURGE DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
IN EARLY NEXT WEEK AT SPEEDS CLOSE TO 15-20 KNOTS AND SCEC HEADLINES
MAY BE REQUIRED.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FYI...UPPER 90S (>= 97 F) HAVE NOT BEEN REACHED AT THE JACKSONVILLE
OR GAINESVILLE CLIMATE STATIONS SINCE AUGUST OF 2011.

RECORD HIGHS  TODAY 8/21  FRI 8/22  SAT/8/23
JACKSONVILLE   101/1900   100/1900   98/1966
GAINESVILLE     99/1983    99/1983   99/1902
ALMA, GA       100/1980   100/1968   99/1968
ST SIMONS ISLD  98/1983    97/1966   95/2006

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 100  76 101  76 /  30  10  20  20
SSI  93  79  94  80 /  20   0  20  20
JAX  98  76  99  78 /  20  10  30  30
SGJ  93  76  93  77 /  20  10  20  20
GNV  97  75  96  76 /  30  30  30  30
OCF  96  74  96  75 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/









000
FXUS62 KJAX 210122
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
922 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...

WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS...CLEARING IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS
ARE ON TRACK FOR READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

HEAT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES IS POSSIBLE AT GNV AND VQQ AFTER 10Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE EVENING TAFS. ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ON THURS...AND CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND INTENSITY WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE EVENING TAFS. SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL...WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
RESULTING IN EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT SSI AND CRG AFTER
18Z/19Z...AND JAX TOWARDS 21Z.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75 100  76 101 /  30  20  20  20
SSI  78  93  79  94 /  20  10  10  20
JAX  76  98  76  99 /  20  20  20  30
SGJ  76  93  76  93 /  40  20  20  20
GNV  73  97  75  96 /  20  30  30  30
OCF  73  96  74  96 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/NELSON







000
FXUS62 KJAX 210122
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
922 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...

WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LEFTOVER
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS...CLEARING IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS
ARE ON TRACK FOR READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

HEAT ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. A PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES IS POSSIBLE AT GNV AND VQQ AFTER 10Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE EVENING TAFS. ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ON THURS...AND CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND INTENSITY WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE EVENING TAFS. SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL...WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
RESULTING IN EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT SSI AND CRG AFTER
18Z/19Z...AND JAX TOWARDS 21Z.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75 100  76 101 /  30  20  20  20
SSI  78  93  79  94 /  20  10  10  20
JAX  76  98  76  99 /  20  20  20  30
SGJ  76  93  76  93 /  40  20  20  20
GNV  73  97  75  96 /  20  30  30  30
OCF  73  96  74  96 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/NELSON








000
FXUS62 KJAX 201822
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
222 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE EARLY
THIS AFTN. WITH SOME INDICATION OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT NUDGING
FURTHER EAST AND NORTH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED
POPS FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE THIS AFTN. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF STRONGER STORMS...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
AREA WIDE...SO EXPECT MAXIMUMS OF MID 90S BY LATER THIS AFTN WITH
MAX HEAT INDEX READINGS OF AROUND 105. ANY STORM ACTIVITY LATE
THIS AFTN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL POKE INTO THE LOCAL AREA...WITH
THE HEAT BUILDING FURTHER. SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WILL
LIMIT AFTN/EVENING STORM ACTIVITY...BUT WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND
SMALL SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE POPS BOTH THU/FRI AFTN. THE MAJOR CONCERN WILL REMAIN
THE HEAT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY IN THE MID 90S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 INLAND. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...THIS WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 105 TO 112 RANGE. THUS...WILL ISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS THURSDAY AFTN...WITH THE LONGEST
DURATION OF HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS. WILL
LIKELY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO FALL ENOUGH AT NIGHT FOR
SOME RELIEF...WITH LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL LOOKING AT A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS THROUGH SUNDAY.
BEYOND SUNDAY THE TROPICAL SYSTEM BECOMES A PLAYER AND THE BEST
THINKING RIGHT NOW IS FOR A POSITION IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO BY MID-WEEK WITH UNCERTAIN INTENSITY AS IT PASSES OVER-NEAR
THE GREATER ANTILLES. HAVE TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THE GFS OPERATIONAL
SOLUTION HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
GEORGIA...HOWEVER...NOTE THE MODEL HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST AND IT IS
VERY POSSIBLE THAT TREND COULD CONTINUE WITH A PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM
TO OUR EAST. LOOKING AT THE 0600 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CERTAINLY
SUGGESTS THAT POSSIBILITY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL MEMBERS
OFFSHORE. BOTTOM LINE...PLEASE DO NOT JUST ON THE GFS SOLUTION
YET...LETS SEE IF IT SETTLES DOWN ON AN TRACK AND OTHER MODELS COME
INTO AGREEMENT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER
WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE GULF. LOOKING FOR SUBSIDENCE AND WESTERLY WINDS
MAKING IT A HOT DAY FOR THE REGION. EVEN THE BEACHES WILL SEE HOT
TEMPERATURES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES FLIRTING WITH THE 110 RANGE.
DEFINITELY GOING TO BE A DAY TO REMAIN HYDRATED AND APPLY SUNSCREEN
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE EXPANDS IN SIZE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ONLY
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR
THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO POSSIBLE UPPER 90S. AGAIN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S WILL
PROVIDE VERY LITTLE RELIEF.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...RIGHT NOW GOING TO GO WITH ECMWF AS THE MODEL OF
CHOICE WITH A WEAKER TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING OVER CUBA AND MISSING
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. THAT SYSTEM SHOULD FIND ITSELF
IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF AND LOOP CURRENT AREA. AT THAT POINT THIS
FORECAST IS PREDICATED ON THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
AND INTENSIFYING. THAT SHOULD ACTUALLY PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A
MORE SUBSIDENT AREA AND MIGHT SUPPRESS CONVECTION. THAT SAID...A
STRONGER SYSTEM MAY JUST BE PICKED UP BY THE ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH
AND RECURVE OFFSHORE. IF THAT WERE THE CASE WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT
INCREASING SURF AND SWELLS IN OUR COASTAL WATERS. THEN THERE IS
THERE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION TO CONSIDER. THE MAIN POINT TO TAKE AWAY
FROM THESE THREE OPTIONS IS PLEASE TO NOT LOCK IN ANY ONE SOLUTION
AT THIS POINT. THERE ARE JUST TO MANY VARIABLES FOR NEXT WEEKS
FORECAST RIGHT NOW AND EACH OF THEM IS JUST AS VALID!!!

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTN...WILL USE VCTS FOR ALL SITES.
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT GNV FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY APPROACHING
THE PORT. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY INLAND...BUT WITH COVERAGE LIMITED WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY MENTION FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH DAILY SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST...THEN A SHIFT TO ONSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING
NORTHEAST SURGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN
THE 2-4 FT RANGE POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 5 FT WELL OFFSHORE DURING
NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAINLY OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75 100  76 101 /  20  20  20  20
SSI  78  93  79  94 /  20  10  10  20
JAX  76  98  76  99 /  20  20  20  30
SGJ  76  93  76  93 /  20  20  20  20
GNV  73  97  75  96 /  20  30  30  30
OCF  73  96  74  96 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/SANDRIK/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KJAX 201822
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
222 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE EARLY
THIS AFTN. WITH SOME INDICATION OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT NUDGING
FURTHER EAST AND NORTH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED
POPS FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE THIS AFTN. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF STRONGER STORMS...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
AREA WIDE...SO EXPECT MAXIMUMS OF MID 90S BY LATER THIS AFTN WITH
MAX HEAT INDEX READINGS OF AROUND 105. ANY STORM ACTIVITY LATE
THIS AFTN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL POKE INTO THE LOCAL AREA...WITH
THE HEAT BUILDING FURTHER. SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WILL
LIMIT AFTN/EVENING STORM ACTIVITY...BUT WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND
SMALL SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE POPS BOTH THU/FRI AFTN. THE MAJOR CONCERN WILL REMAIN
THE HEAT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY IN THE MID 90S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 INLAND. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...THIS WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 105 TO 112 RANGE. THUS...WILL ISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS THURSDAY AFTN...WITH THE LONGEST
DURATION OF HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS. WILL
LIKELY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO FALL ENOUGH AT NIGHT FOR
SOME RELIEF...WITH LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL LOOKING AT A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS THROUGH SUNDAY.
BEYOND SUNDAY THE TROPICAL SYSTEM BECOMES A PLAYER AND THE BEST
THINKING RIGHT NOW IS FOR A POSITION IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO BY MID-WEEK WITH UNCERTAIN INTENSITY AS IT PASSES OVER-NEAR
THE GREATER ANTILLES. HAVE TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THE GFS OPERATIONAL
SOLUTION HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
GEORGIA...HOWEVER...NOTE THE MODEL HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST AND IT IS
VERY POSSIBLE THAT TREND COULD CONTINUE WITH A PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM
TO OUR EAST. LOOKING AT THE 0600 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CERTAINLY
SUGGESTS THAT POSSIBILITY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL MEMBERS
OFFSHORE. BOTTOM LINE...PLEASE DO NOT JUST ON THE GFS SOLUTION
YET...LETS SEE IF IT SETTLES DOWN ON AN TRACK AND OTHER MODELS COME
INTO AGREEMENT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER
WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE GULF. LOOKING FOR SUBSIDENCE AND WESTERLY WINDS
MAKING IT A HOT DAY FOR THE REGION. EVEN THE BEACHES WILL SEE HOT
TEMPERATURES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES FLIRTING WITH THE 110 RANGE.
DEFINITELY GOING TO BE A DAY TO REMAIN HYDRATED AND APPLY SUNSCREEN
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE EXPANDS IN SIZE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ONLY
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR
THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO POSSIBLE UPPER 90S. AGAIN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S WILL
PROVIDE VERY LITTLE RELIEF.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...RIGHT NOW GOING TO GO WITH ECMWF AS THE MODEL OF
CHOICE WITH A WEAKER TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING OVER CUBA AND MISSING
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. THAT SYSTEM SHOULD FIND ITSELF
IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF AND LOOP CURRENT AREA. AT THAT POINT THIS
FORECAST IS PREDICATED ON THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
AND INTENSIFYING. THAT SHOULD ACTUALLY PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A
MORE SUBSIDENT AREA AND MIGHT SUPPRESS CONVECTION. THAT SAID...A
STRONGER SYSTEM MAY JUST BE PICKED UP BY THE ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH
AND RECURVE OFFSHORE. IF THAT WERE THE CASE WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT
INCREASING SURF AND SWELLS IN OUR COASTAL WATERS. THEN THERE IS
THERE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION TO CONSIDER. THE MAIN POINT TO TAKE AWAY
FROM THESE THREE OPTIONS IS PLEASE TO NOT LOCK IN ANY ONE SOLUTION
AT THIS POINT. THERE ARE JUST TO MANY VARIABLES FOR NEXT WEEKS
FORECAST RIGHT NOW AND EACH OF THEM IS JUST AS VALID!!!

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTN...WILL USE VCTS FOR ALL SITES.
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT GNV FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY APPROACHING
THE PORT. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY INLAND...BUT WITH COVERAGE LIMITED WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY MENTION FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH DAILY SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST...THEN A SHIFT TO ONSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING
NORTHEAST SURGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN
THE 2-4 FT RANGE POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 5 FT WELL OFFSHORE DURING
NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAINLY OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75 100  76 101 /  20  20  20  20
SSI  78  93  79  94 /  20  10  10  20
JAX  76  98  76  99 /  20  20  20  30
SGJ  76  93  76  93 /  20  20  20  20
GNV  73  97  75  96 /  20  30  30  30
OCF  73  96  74  96 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/SANDRIK/WALSH








000
FXUS62 KJAX 201401
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1001 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE THIS MORNING WITH A STEADY
WESTERLY FLOW ENSURES A HOT DAY FOR THE REGION INCLUDING THE
BEACHES. WHATEVER SEA BREEZE THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL BE PINNED NEAR
THE BEACHES OR EVEN OFFSHORE. SO LITTLE RELIEF THERE AND NO REAL
FOCUSING MECH FOR CONVECTION ALONG MOST OF THE COAST. IF IT IS
GOING TO HAPPEN ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BEST CHANCE IS FROM SAINT
AUGUSTINE SOUTH. ELSEWHERE ON A DAY LIKE TODAY SOME INSTABILITY IS
GOING TO BLOW THROUGH THE CAP AND BET THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS OUT THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO REAL PROBLEMS AT ANY OF THE AIRFIELDS TODAY. THERE IS A BROKEN
LOW DECK AT CECIL EARLY BUT THAT SHOULD LIFT VERY SOON.

&&

.MARINE...NO ISSUES TODAY. THERE MIGHT BE A WIND SURGE AROUND THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT IN THE OFF SHORE PORTIONS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  97  75 100  75 /  20  20  20  20
SSI  94  79  95  79 /  20  20  10  10
JAX  95  75  98  76 /  20  20  20  20
SGJ  93  76  93  76 /  20  20  20  20
GNV  95  73  97  75 /  20  20  30  30
OCF  95  72  96  74 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/ALLEN/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KJAX 201401
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1001 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE THIS MORNING WITH A STEADY
WESTERLY FLOW ENSURES A HOT DAY FOR THE REGION INCLUDING THE
BEACHES. WHATEVER SEA BREEZE THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL BE PINNED NEAR
THE BEACHES OR EVEN OFFSHORE. SO LITTLE RELIEF THERE AND NO REAL
FOCUSING MECH FOR CONVECTION ALONG MOST OF THE COAST. IF IT IS
GOING TO HAPPEN ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BEST CHANCE IS FROM SAINT
AUGUSTINE SOUTH. ELSEWHERE ON A DAY LIKE TODAY SOME INSTABILITY IS
GOING TO BLOW THROUGH THE CAP AND BET THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS OUT THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO REAL PROBLEMS AT ANY OF THE AIRFIELDS TODAY. THERE IS A BROKEN
LOW DECK AT CECIL EARLY BUT THAT SHOULD LIFT VERY SOON.

&&

.MARINE...NO ISSUES TODAY. THERE MIGHT BE A WIND SURGE AROUND THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT IN THE OFF SHORE PORTIONS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  97  75 100  75 /  20  20  20  20
SSI  94  79  95  79 /  20  20  10  10
JAX  95  75  98  76 /  20  20  20  20
SGJ  93  76  93  76 /  20  20  20  20
GNV  95  73  97  75 /  20  20  30  30
OCF  95  72  96  74 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/ALLEN/WALSH








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