Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KJAX 161319
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
919 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1032 MB) IS LOCATED OVER OHIO THIS MORNING
PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE SERN U.S. COAST AND
OVER THE SWRN ATLANTIC. NELY WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACRS SE GA TO
AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTS 20-25 MPH INLAND AND 30 MPH AT THE COAST.
WILL CONSIDER ADDING SOME INLAND COUNTIES TO THE LAKE WINDS ADV.
STRONG NELY FLOW WILL BRING IN COASTAL CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
AND WITH A WINDY NELY FLOW...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ALMOST 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS ARE VEERING TO NE AT SSI AND GNV...BUT REMAIN N ALONG THE FL
EAST COAST. SURGE IS PUSHING S ALONG GA COAST WITH SSI ALREADY
REPORTING NE 15G26KT. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME NE AND GUSTY AT
REMAINING TERMINALS BETWEEN 14Z-15Z. PREVAILING MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
ALONG EAST COAST ALTHO CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY BE SCT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT DUE TO
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINING WEEK DUE TO
A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  45  68  55 /   0  20  20  60
SSI  59  55  66  61 /  10  30  40  60
JAX  64  55  69  62 /  20  30  40  70
SGJ  65  62  71  65 /  20  40  50  60
GNV  69  54  72  61 /  10  30  40  70
OCF  73  57  72  62 /  10  30  50  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

$$

TRABERT/MCALLISTER






000
FXUS62 KJAX 160857
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
457 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

...WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

TODAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. AN UNUSUALLY COOL AIR MASS
MOVES INTO THE AREA TODAY ON BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
INLAND AND A WINDY NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST WHERE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THRU EARLY EVE. THE STRONG NE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING IN COASTAL CLOUDS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AND COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID 60S FOR SE GA AND COASTAL SE GA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE SUN.

TONIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDGES SOUTH INTO THE AREA WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARDS THE FL EAST COAST. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FROM SE TO NW DURING THE NIGHT AS AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE FROM THE GULF INCREASES ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
COMBINES WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH. WILL HAVE A LARGE RANGE
IN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS FAR INLAND
SE GA TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE NE FL COAST WHERE THERE
WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY NE WINDS.

THURS AND THURS NIGHT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
OVER OUR REGION AS IMPRESSIVE SURFACE RIDGING OVER NEW ENGLAND
WEDGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. COASTAL TROUGHING AND SPEED
CONVERGENCE WILL ADVECT AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE
COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY SURF AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE AS A DEEP FETCH OF NORTHEAST WINDS REMAINS IN PLACE.
MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
TROUGHING ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS STATES PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...INITIATING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT INITIALLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS LIFT WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH BY THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR ALL BUT INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA BY SUNSET. ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA AND COASTAL
NORTHEAST FL...WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED IN NORTH CENTRAL FL. THESE
READINGS ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. DYNAMICS ALOFT MOVING
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON THURS NIGHT...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTING
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
NORTHEAST FL. LIKELY POPS WERE USED FOR OUR FL COUNTIES...WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 55-60
IN SOUTHEAST GA...AND 60-65 IN NORTHEAST FL.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...00Z OPERATIONAL NAM/ECMWF/CMC DEPICT A
STRONGER AND SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CUTS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS DEPICTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...BUT STILL BRINGS A SUBSTANTIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAS INCLUDED MUCH OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH WIDESPREAD
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES OVER NEARLY ALL OF OUR
FL COUNTIES AS WELL AS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA. DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE EASTERN
GULF/FL...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD BECOME A CONCERN
OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL AS A WARM SECTOR POTENTIALLY PUSHES
NORTHWARD. STRONG COASTAL CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO ENHANCE BANDS OF
CONVECTION THAT MAY POTENTIALLY TRAIN INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GIVEN SATURATED CONDITIONS...THE THREAT
FOR FLOODING ON FRI AND ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT IS INCREASING FOR OUR
FL COUNTIES AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA. IF THE WARM SECTOR ADVECTS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL...HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE MID 70S. A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY OR THE EVENING
HOURS AS DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 65-70 RANGE.
LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GA...WHERE RAINS MAY GRADUALLY END OVERNIGHT...TO THE LOW/MID 60S
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT PREVAILS IN THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE...AS
00Z CMC/ECWMF DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT CUTOFF CYCLONE MIGRATING THROUGH
OUR REGION ON SAT/SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
MAINTAINS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAT ENDS RAINFALL OVER OUR REGION
BY EARLY SAT. SIDED WITH THE CUTOFF SOLUTION FOR NOW...WHICH
MAINTAINS STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND AS STACKED LOW PRESSURE ONLY GRADUALLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE. LEFT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MOST AREAS ON SAT MORNING...AND
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS IN COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MAY
NEED TO RAISE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR SAT REGION-WIDE IN FUTURE
FORECASTS IF SLOWER LONG-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS PREVAIL. FLOODING
AND HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION MAY BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY FOR
COASTAL LOCATIONS. RAINFALL CHANCES DIMINISH FOR EASTER SUN...BUT
PREVAILING N-NE FLOW SHOULD KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO THIS
WEEKEND...GENERALLY 70-75 (UPPER 60S COAST) SAT AND MID 70S SUN
(LOW 70S COAST). LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S INLAND...RANGING TO
LOWER 60S AT THE COAST. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON AS STACKED LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR
80 INLAND AND LOW/MID 70S AT THE COAST. TROUGHING ALOFT MAY DIG
BACK INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY TUES...SPARKING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE NE THIS MORNING WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFT 13Z-14Z. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT IN COASTAL CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST
TERMINALS AFT 13Z-14Z. THE EXCEPTION WAS HAVING VFR CIGS AT GNV.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REMAINING WEEK WHILE A BROAD COASTAL TROUGH FORMS
OFFSHORE AND MOVES TO THE WEST. THE TIGHT GRADIENT RESULTS IN SCA
CONDITIONS FOR ALL LEGS AT LEAST THRU THU NIGHT. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ON FRIDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SCATTERED STORMS. THE LOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINING WEEK DUE TO
A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  45  68  55 /   0  20  20  60
SSI  59  55  66  61 /  10  30  40  60
JAX  64  55  69  62 /  20  30  40  70
SGJ  65  62  71  65 /  20  40  50  60
GNV  69  54  72  61 /  10  30  40  70
OCF  73  57  72  62 /  10  30  50  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

$$

PETERSON/NELSON









000
FXUS62 KJAX 160218
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1018 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...

WINDS HAVE DECREASED OVER LAND...AND SHOULD REMAIN DOWN UNTIL THE
NORTHEAST SURGE STRENGTHENS ON WEDNESDAY...AT WHICH TIME AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR COASTAL COUNTIES. SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TO CLEAR TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A NOTICEABLY COOLER
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RUNNING
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL PUSH SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES BY ROUGHLY 4Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS PRESSURES RISE AND
COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PUSH INLAND FROM THE
ATLANTIC AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASING
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY SURGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  39  65  44  71 /   0   0  10  20
SSI  47  61  54  66 /  30  10  20  30
JAX  45  64  53  70 /  40  10  30  40
SGJ  52  65  61  69 /  60  20  30  40
GNV  45  70  51  74 /  30  10  30  40
OCF  46  73  56  76 /  20  10  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHULER








000
FXUS62 KJAX 152329
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
729 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...

COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE CWA TO THE EAST...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS CAME UP IN THE SUBSIDENCE
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...PROMPTING ANOTHER LAKE WIND
ADVISORY. THE WINDS OVER LAND ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX LATER THIS
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
SE GA...AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NE FL.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  39  65  44  71 /   0   0  10  20
SSI  47  61  54  66 /  30  10  20  30
JAX  45  64  53  70 /  40  10  30  40
SGJ  52  65  61  69 /  60  20  30  40
GNV  45  70  51  74 /  30  10  30  40
OCF  46  73  56  76 /  20  10  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-HAMILTON-NASSAU-ST JOHNS-
     SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE








000
FXUS62 KJAX 151819
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
219 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO ENTER SE GA THIS AFTN. PRECIP
CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST ACROSS SE GA/NE FL...WITH MOST OF THE TSTM
ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL FL. WINDS ARE REMAINING
BELOW LAKE WIND CRITERIA EXCEPT FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL...THUS WILL
CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR NE FL...RETAINING IT FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.
WILL KEEP ISOLATED TSTMS FOR NE FL THROUGH THE AFTN...ENDING
ACROSS LAND AREAS BY THIS EVENING. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE THIS AFTN WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED POPS ACROSS NE FL
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE SE. BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL TO AROUND 40 FAR INLAND...WITH MID/UPPER 40S FOR THE JAX
METRO...AND AROUND 50 COAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM NEW
ENGLAND...RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
WHERE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY BY AFTN. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. CHILLY AIR WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST
OF SE GA INTO NE FL...WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL
FL.

WED NIGHT/THU...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AXIS WILL DOMINATE NORTH OF THE
AREA WHILE COASTAL TROUGHING CONTINUES EAST OF THE S-CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA. THIS REGIME WILL BRING COOL AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE
COAST WITH PASSING COASTAL SHOWERS...AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST DUE TO WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 20
MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM S-N LATE
THU AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
INCREASES ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. MIN TEMPS
WED NIGHT WILL CONTINUE BELOW CLIMO VALUES OVER SE GA DUE TO A
COOL NE DRAINAGE FLOW WHERE VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S
WHILE FARTHER SSE MINS WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
DUE TO FETCH OF ONSHORE ENE FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED THU DUE
TO ONSHORE FLOW AND COASTAL CLOUDS WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S COAST TO THE LOW/MID 70S TOWARD I-75.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASE OVER N FL AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND COASTAL TROUGHING AMPLIFIES ALONG THE FL
ATLANTIC COAST. CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF 60-70%
OVER NE FL AND THE COAST WHERE THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
ADVERTISES WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE
DEEPER CONVECTION MAY IMPACT. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER COMPARED TO
THE GFS IN CLEARING THE PRECIP FROM W-E FRI NIGHT AS IT SHOWS A
MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER NE FL. WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD THE GFS/DGEX SOLUTIONS WHICH BOTH SHOW
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FILTERING IN FROM THE WNW FRI NIGHT AS
PRECIP EXISTS OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. MINS WILL FALL
INTO THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND SAT MORNING TO LOW 60S COAST. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SAT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S COAST TO UPPER 70S
WELL INLAND UNDER A COOLER NNE FLOW.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE OF THE REGION
WITH ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH SCENARIO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK....BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE ONE EXPECTED THIS
WEEK. THIS COASTAL TROUGH MAY CONVERGE WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL
SYSTEM TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH 20% RAIN CHANCES
MON/TUE. COOLER AND BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING PASSING COASTAL
SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
AND MINS IN THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/AREAS OF IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN AS PRECIP AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE SE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N/NW
WITH PRECIP ENDING EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LOW END VFR ALONG THE COAST
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 8-12 KT RANGE
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT...INCREASING TO 12-17 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...WITH BUOY 41009 APPROACHING SCA.
CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TNGT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
WATERS. EXPECT SOLID SCA CONDITIONS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...WITH SCA DEVELOPING NEARSHORE LATE TNGT/EARLY WED
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY. MODERATE TO HIGH RISK WEDNESDAY
WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND ELEVATED SURF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  39  65  44  71 /   0   0  10  20
SSI  47  61  54  66 /  10  10  20  30
JAX  45  64  53  70 /  10  10  30  40
SGJ  52  65  61  69 /  20  20  30  40
GNV  45  70  51  74 /  10  10  30  40
OCF  46  73  56  76 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER-
     MARION-PUTNAM.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/ENYEDI








000
FXUS62 KJAX 151228
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
828 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY...

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK EAST...MOVING INTO WESTERN GA THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE MOVED INTO INTERIOR SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF NE FL.
THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL MOVE INTO NE FL LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP IS OCCURRING WITH THE STRONGEST LINE OF STORMS AND WITH THE
TREND LIKELY TO CONTINUE GIVEN THE MOISTURE TAP OFF THE
GOMEX...WILL INSERT HEAVY RAIN WORDING WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP
COVERAGE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. 1 HR/3 HR RAINFALL RATES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...THUS
WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WITH SOME DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...WILL RETAIN GUSTY WINDS WITH THE TSTMS. CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
FOR SE GA...WITH 70S FOR NE FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN TO MVFR/AREAS OF IFR AS
THE PRECIP SHIELD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN WITH
GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH LATE IN
THE AFTN WITH RESIDUAL MVFR CIGS IN THE EVENING. SKIES WILL
CLEAR BY THE OVERNIGHT WITH BREEZY NW WINDS LINGERING.

&&

.MARINE...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
WATERS IN THE AFTN. GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. OUTSIDE STORMS...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
SCA OFFSHORE BY AFTN...AND NEARSHORE BY THIS EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. MODERATE RISK WEDNESDAY WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  40  65  44 / 100   0   0  10
SSI  74  48  60  54 /  90  20  10  20
JAX  78  44  64  53 / 100  10  10  30
SGJ  82  54  65  61 /  70  20  20  30
GNV  78  44  70  51 / 100   0  10  30
OCF  79  44  72  56 / 100  10  10  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ALACHUA-BRADFORD-CLAY-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-MARION-PUTNAM-
     ST JOHNS.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/ENYEDI/WALKER








000
FXUS62 KJAX 150939
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
539 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND COASTAL
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON FRIDAY...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...HRR MODEL SHOWS PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST MOVING INTO WESTERN ZONES AROUND
10Z THIS MORNING WHICH AGREES WITH RADAR TRENDS. AREA OF RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS UPPER
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONG WITH AN INCREASING SW WIND FIELD PRODUCING STRONG VERTICAL
SPEED SHEAR. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIP BUT ADEQUATE ENOUGH WITH GFS FORECAST CAPE REACHING 1500+
J/KG BY 18Z. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE
OVER SE ZONES GENERALLY SE OF A JAX TO GNV LINE. EXPECT ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WINDS AND
POSSIBLY HAIL IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MARGINAL
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER SE ZONES WHERE VERTICAL MIXING
SHOULD BE STRONGER...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER
INTERIOR SE GA TO THE LOWER 80S OVER SE ZONES. RAIN WILL END FROM
NW TO SE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH READINGS FALLING TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES OVER INTERIOR SE GA/SUWANNEE VALLEY TO THE LOWER
50S NEAR THE NE FL COAST.

WED AND WED NIGHT...OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY
TIGHTEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL SURGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN COASTAL LOCATIONS...WITH LAKE
WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. A SHALLOW
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT NEAR 70 IN NORTH CENTRAL FL. THESE HIGHS ARE
10-15 DEGREES BELOW MID-APRIL CLIMO. ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS INTO OUR SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES BY LATE WED...BUT
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING HOLDS OFF UNTIL WED NIGHT...WHEN A COASTAL
TROUGH FORMS AND ADVECTS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ONSHORE WINDS WILL CREATE A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT...WITH LOWS NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...RANGING TO
THE MID 40S IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA.

THURS AND THURS NIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MIGRATES INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. STRONG SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD KEEP COASTAL TROUGH IN PLACE...AND BRISK ONSHORE WINDS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 65-70 RANGE AT THE COAST...WITH
70-75 EXPECTED INLAND. DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ON THURS NIGHT...WITH
LIKELY POPS EXPECTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL TOWARDS SUNRISE ON FRI
AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST FL...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE BY LATE THURS NIGHT IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 55-60 INLAND...AND MID 60S AT THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF INSISTS ON DEEPENING A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT OVER THE FL PENINSULA ON FRI...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING A LESS
AMPLIFIED WAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A VEERING WIND PROFILE
ON FRI AS THIS SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION...WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST FL AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA.
WPC PROGS DEPICT A SWATH OF 1.5-3.0 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THESE
REGIONS FROM THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL IN
THESE LOCATIONS FOR FRI...WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA. FLOODING COULD BECOME A CONCERN IN COASTAL
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IF CONVERGENCE RESULTS IN TRAINING CONVECTION
WITHIN THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. CLOUDS AND RAINFALL SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE REGION-WIDE...WITH 70S EXPECTED FOR
FRI. SIDED WITH THE FASTER 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION...WHICH
PUSHES THE SURFACE WAVE OFFSHORE ON FRI NIGHT. DEPICTED DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CLEARING SKIES INLAND ALLOWING
LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 50S...WITH 60S AT THE COAST. DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED REGION-WIDE AS TROUGHING ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FLOW. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE OVER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING DIGS BACK INTO THE EASTERN
U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 13Z AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 35-40 KTS EXPECTED AT
2000 FT. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS SUNRISE AT GNV...AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AFTER
13Z...AND PERIODS OF IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM 14Z-20Z AS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER
ACTIVITY. RAINFALL WILL END TOWARDS 22Z- 23Z AT THE
TERMINALS...WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS WINDS SHIFT TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER 02Z AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AT
10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SHOWERS OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL AFFECT THE OFFSHORE
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON PRODUCING STRONG WINDS.
WILL EXPAND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE NEAR SHORE WATERS
STARTING TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS
TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND FROM NOON TODAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY OFFSHORE. A NORTHEAST WIND SURGE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL WATERS ON WED MORNING...AND THESE STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A
COASTAL TROUGH FORMS OFFSHORE AND THEN A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST FL WATERS ON FRI/FRI NIGHT.
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE BY LATE WED THROUGH FRI. ROUGH SURF
AND AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED WED-FRI NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY WITH OFFSHORE WINDS...INCREASING TO
MODERATE RISK ON WEDNESDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  40  65  44 /  90   0   0  10
SSI  74  48  60  54 /  90  20  10  20
JAX  78  44  64  53 /  90  10  10  30
SGJ  84  54  65  61 /  80  20  20  30
GNV  78  44  70  51 /  90   0  10  30
OCF  79  44  72  56 /  90  10  10  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ALACHUA-BRADFORD-CLAY-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-MARION-PUTNAM-
     ST JOHNS.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/NELSON








000
FXUS62 KJAX 150055
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
855 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING ALONG COASTAL NE
FL STRETCHING INLAND ACROSS SE GA. WITH THE MOIST LAYER STILL
SHALLOW...THINK ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
AFTER THAT...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST AREAS WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY MAY CLIP INTERIOR SE GA LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR SURGING...LOWS TNGT OF 65 TO
70 WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE
IN THE MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AT BUOY 41009 ARE APPROACHING CAUTION CRITERIA...AND WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL RETAIN THE SCEC
OFFSHORE TNGT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TONIGHT...BECOMING LOW TUESDAY WITH
FLOW BECOMING OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  71  39  65 /  30 100  20  10
SSI  68  76  47  58 /  20  80  40  20
JAX  65  79  48  64 /  30  80  30  20
SGJ  69  82  52  63 /  20  70  40  20
GNV  65  80  45  70 /  10  80  30  10
OCF  66  80  49  72 /  10  70  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE/GUILLET








000
FXUS62 KJAX 141910
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
310 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

WIDELY SCATTERED AND VERY SHALLOW SHORT LIVED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON
THANKS TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S) WORKING IN COMBINATION WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL LEAVE
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER BUT MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND ASSOCIATED
CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY TODAY. ALL RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY WIND DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND REALLY NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW LEVELS ARE ACTUALLY PROGGED TO DRY
OUT THIS EVENING. THICKENING CIRRUS CANOPY OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING BUT
SOME LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AROUND SUNRISE AND THEN
STEADILY PROGRESS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. EARLY START TO PRECIP WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY BUT A STRONG LLJ OF AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS
WILL SUPPORT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. SPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK BUT THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE LAGGING
WAY BEHIND THE ACTUAL PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION...AND AS
STATED BEFORE...ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED DUE TO
LIMITED HEATING BEFORE CLOUDS AND RAIN SPREAD INTO THE AREA. THE
WARM FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION
WHICH IS ALSO ANOTHER REASON WHY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE
AN INCH OR LESS WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD WILL PUSH WEST TO
EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH ALL RAIN EXPECTED TO END
AROUND SUNSET. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
EVEN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY
BE NEEDED IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35
MPH. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUE NIGHT...DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NNW AS SKIES
CLEAR OVERNIGHT TRAILING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. MIN TEMPS WILL PLUMMET 10-15
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO VALUES INLAND RANGING FROM NEAR 40 ACROSS OUR
INLAND SE GA ZONES TO THE MID 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE FL ATLANTIC COAST/ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. FROST IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS OVERNIGHT.

WED THROUGH THU NIGHT...A SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH/HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE SCENARIO DEVELOPS WITH WINDY ONSHORE FLOW WED BRINGING
PASSING COASTAL SHOWERS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN WED FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT EACH PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S COAST
TO LOW 70S WELL INLAND WED...WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S INLAND
THU WITH THE COAST NEAR 70. MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 40S/LOW 50S
INLAND WED NIGHT REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S/LOW 60S THU NIGHT
INLAND TO LOW/MID 60S COAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FRI-SAT...ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INDUCES A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING OVER SOUTH FL.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...WITH MODELS STILL DIVERGING
ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE WAVE. THE GFS IS FASTER BUT LESS
INTENSE COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WITH SHOWS A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONGER SFC LOW FORMING OVER THE EASTERN GULF
FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. AT THIS TIME CONTINUED TO ADVERTISED RAIN
CHANCES OF 30-40% OVER SE GA FRI-SAT TO 40-50% OVER NE FL AND THE
COAST UNTIL MODELS CAN CONVERGE BETTER ON THE SYSTEM. EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NE FL WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATER...BUT THE MAIN WX HAZARD WITH THIS TYPE OF WEATHER
REGIME IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS DAY 4-5 PRECIP TOTALS RANGING FROM 2-3
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA (BEGINNING THU THROUGH SAT
MORNING). SOME OF THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTAL AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR
NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE UNDER
ISENTROPIC LIFT.

SUN-MON...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION EARLY SUN
WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE LOW
80S. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW MON WITH PWATS INCREASE
TO NEAR 1.5" UNDER MEAN LAYER SW FLOW PER THE GFS. INTRODUCED A
20% RAIN CHANCE MON AFTN/EVENING FOR ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3K TO 5K FEET WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END BY THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH ONLY HIGH CIRRUS
CEILINGS. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY AS A BAND OF
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ALL DAY EVEN OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL KICK IN ON TUESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ZONES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO LIKELY ACROSS OUR NEARSHORE ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS A NORTHEAST SURGE AFFECTS THE AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HIGHER SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY THEN LOW RISK EXPECTED TOMORROW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR WITH MIN RHS BETWEEN 25-30% AND BREEZY NNE
WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WED. RHS WILL REBOUND THU
WITH NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  71  39  65 /  30 100  20  10
SSI  68  76  47  58 /  20  80  40  20
JAX  65  79  48  64 /  20  80  30  20
SGJ  69  82  52  63 /  10  70  40  20
GNV  65  80  45  70 /  10  80  30  10
OCF  66  80  49  72 /   0  70  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/ENYEDI/WALKER









000
FXUS62 KJAX 141341
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
941 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AS
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST. MORNING SOUNDING AT KJAX SHOWED A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 500 AND 800 MB. ALTHOUGH THIS
LAYER WILL MOISTEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON...THE INITIAL DRY AIR IN
THIS LAYER WILL DEFINITELY HELP TO TAME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY.
NEVERTHELESS...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND. THE BEST
CHANCES (30%) WILL BE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN NE FL INTO SE GA
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL PREVAIL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODELS WERE OVERDONE ON LOW STRATUS CEILINGS THIS MORNING WITH
CEILINGS ONLY CHECKING IN AROUND 7K TO 8K FEET INSTEAD. WE HAVE
THUS BACKED OFF ON MVFR CEILINGS TODAY BUT CEILINGS BETWEEN 3K AND
5K FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WEST AND EAST COAST
SEABREEZES MERGE NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY THUS WE WILL CONTINUE TO
STICK WITH VCSH SINCE THE CHANCES REMAIN LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS AVERAGING 3 TO 5 FEET TODAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH SCEC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES TONIGHT FOR 15 TO 20
KNOT WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY THEN LOW RISK TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  65  71  39 /  30  60  90  20
SSI  78  67  74  48 /  30  50  90  30
JAX  83  66  79  47 /  30  50  80  30
SGJ  81  69  83  53 /  20  40  80  50
GNV  86  66  80  46 /  20  50  80  30
OCF  87  67  82  49 /  20  40  70  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/ENYEDI/WALKER









000
FXUS62 KJAX 140836
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
430 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

...ISOLATED STRONG/POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...PATCHY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT BY LATE MORNING.
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE WILL BE
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS. AS THE RIDGE (THAT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA) SHIFTS NORTHEAST...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH
AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEABREEZE MERGER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVE...FROM NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR NORTHEAST FL INTO SE GA.
IF THESE STORMS CAN GET GOING AND BREAK THE CAP...SOME MAY BE
LOCALLY STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FCST OF LOW END SCATTERED
POPS NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN NE FL INTO SE GA FOR MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE. WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL PREVAIL
AGAIN...DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST BEFORE THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE MOVES IN.

TONIGHT...ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT MANAGE TO GET GOING WILL
RAPIDLY END DURING THE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS. SOME OF THE
MODELS (SREF/NAM) INDICATING PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS LATE. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BECAUSE OF THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

TUESDAY...AN AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD
ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH SFC COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA. A WAVE OF LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONT MAY FORM OVER ERN
GA BEFORE LIFTING NEWD TUE MORNING. NAM AND GFS MODEL TIMING WITH
THE FRONT SIMILAR THOUGH THE NAM BECOMES A BIT SLOWER BY 21Z-00Z
WED. FAIRLY STRONG LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT
WITH A SWLY 120 KT JET WILL GIVE WAY TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT ALONG WITH SBCAPE
VALES OF 500 TO AROUND 1000 J SUPPORT A RISK OF ISOLD STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND LIGHTNING THOUGH SOME HAIL CAN`T BE DISCOUNTED
GIVEN SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALOFT AND MARGINAL CAPE. TIME FRAME OF TSTMS
WILL BE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOWER 70S N ZONE BUT SE QUARTER OF THE CWA HIGHS COULD
MANAGE TO REACH 82-85 IF ENOUGH SUN IS REALIZED. GUSTY SWLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 MPH POSSIBLE IN NE FL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF NEAR QUARTER OF
AN INCH TO 1 INCH ARE LIKELY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ISOLD TO SCT LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER OVER THE SE
ZONES IN THE EVENING AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LAGS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES. WE EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH TEMPS BECOMING MUCH COOLER IN THE UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 N
ZONES TO LOWER 50S SE ZONES.

WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONT STALLING
OVER THE WRN ATLC AND THE FL STRAITS. THIS RESULTS IN MEAN LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE E AND NE AND BREEZY AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS N OF ST AUGUSTINE...BUT MID 70S WELL INLAND OVER NE
FL. NELY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH EASILY OCCUR DUE TO MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM S TO N...THOUGH LIGHTER FLOW OVER INLAND SE GA. THE
SFC FRONT S OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD WED NIGHT
WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE ABLE TO SUPPORT ISOLD COASTAL
SHOWERS. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS SOME 5-10 DEG WARMER.

.LONG TERM...THU-SUN.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS N OF THE AREA
PROMOTING E TO NE FLOW UP TO ABOUT 4000-6000 FT WHILE SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWS FOR THE FRONT TO LIFT
FURTHER N ACROSS FL. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT OVER
ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THUS...WE ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
AS COMBINATION OF DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE SW TO NE. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE BTN THE GFS AND ECMWF SO WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE CHANCE RANGE AROUND 30-40% FOR NOW. IF THE
ECMWF IS TO BE PREFERRED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN SOME PERSISTENCE IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS...HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE S PART THU NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRI. SAT AND SUN...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS IN WX FEATURES BUT ATTM APPEARS WEAK SFC
HIGH PRES WILL BE W OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGHING IN THE
AREA AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GO WITH ISOLD TO SCT CHANCES...BECOMING
MORE ISOLD BY SUN AS SFC TROUGH/WEAK FRONT MOVE EWD INTO THE ATLC.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THU AND FRI THEN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AND
LINGER UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AT MOST
TERMINALS UNTIL 16Z-17Z WITH VFR CIGS THEREAFTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE MERGER OF THE WEST AND EAST COAST
SEABREEZE...WHICH IS EXPECTED NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE  EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY
BUT HAVE VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 19Z-24Z.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS NE OF THE WATERS AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO VEER AND INCREASE TO
SCEC OFFSHORE BEGINNING TONIGHT AND TO SCA OFFSHORE TUESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON TUES TAPERING OFF TUES
NIGHT. A STRONG NORTHEAST SURGE WITH SCA CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED
ON TUE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. NE WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS. SEAS 7 TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO A LINGERING EASTERLY SWELL
AND ONSHORE FLOW. LOW RISK EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS WINDS VEER TO SW
AND INCREASE. HOWEVER...AN ELEVATED RISK IS EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY DUE TO NE SURGE AND BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  65  71  39 /  30  60  90  20
SSI  78  67  74  48 /  30  50  90  30
JAX  83  66  79  47 /  30  50  80  30
SGJ  81  69  83  53 /  20  40  80  50
GNV  86  66  80  46 /  20  50  80  30
OCF  87  67  82  49 /  20  40  70  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

PP/ARS







000
FXUS62 KJAX 140031
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
831 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A WEAK IMPULSE
RIDES OVER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO THE SOUTH TNGT...EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO INCREASE...RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. THE CURRENT FCST IS HANDLING THIS WELL AND WILL NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND
THE LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...DID NUDGE TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY...WITH LOWS
AROUND 60 FAR INLAND AND MID 60S COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...AS A LAYER OF
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...LIGHT FOG IS ALSO
EXPECTED AT KGNV/KVQQ. THE MVFR STRATUS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...THEN LIFT TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY. WHILE A SPOTTY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE
CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE INCREASED A BIT OFFSHORE...WITH BUOY 41009 15G18KT. WITH
LITTLE ADDITIONAL INCREASE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP 15 KT
OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  83  65  74 /  10  30  60  70
SSI  65  79  66  76 /  10  30  40  70
JAX  63  84  66  78 /  10  30  40  70
SGJ  65  81  68  83 /  10  30  30  70
GNV  62  86  66  81 /  10  20  40  70
OCF  64  87  67  80 /  20  20  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE/MCALLISTER








000
FXUS62 KJAX 131843
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
243 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014


.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL INHIBIT ANY SEABREEZE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THUS
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE WITH MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND
AND UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SOUTH OF ST
AUGUSTINE.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS...WITH
MILDER READINGS IN THE MID 60S EXPECTED AT THE COAST.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN ON MONDAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND THE GULF
COAST SEABREEZE WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE
ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
DURING THE DAY AND THEN ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE MEETS UP WITH WHATEVER
ATLANTIC COAST SEABREEZE IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. DRY MID LEVEL AIR
WILL LIKELY REMAIN SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. WARM TEMPS WILL PREVAIL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA
AND CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EVENING SEABREEZE CONVECTION
WILL DIE OUT MONDAY EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING ENDS. BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ZONES
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS AREA
WIDE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH A
UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW. CLOUDS AND PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY WILL LIMIT HEATING AND INSTABILITY SO SEVERE THREAT
STILL UNCERTAIN DESPITE STRONG DYNAMICS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN ENDING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH WILL PRODUCE INCREASING NE WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
UPPER TROUGHING WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE FOR NEXT WEEKEND SO WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY WINDS WILL NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION SPEEDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO NE WINDS
AT 20-25 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  83  65  74 /  10  30  60  70
SSI  66  79  66  76 /  10  30  40  70
JAX  61  84  66  78 /  10  30  40  70
SGJ  64  81  68  83 /  10  30  30  70
GNV  59  86  66  81 /  10  20  40  70
OCF  62  87  67  80 /  20  20  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/SHULER/GUILLET











    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities