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000
FXUS62 KJAX 280703
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
303 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME RESIDUAL CIRRUS SOUTH AND EAST OF JAX
EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CLIPPING
THE AREA LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WITH LAYER MOISTURE
VERY LIMITED...SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS MAY RESULT...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN N/NW SURFACE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS TODAY ONLY RISING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S. WITH WINDS
IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE...A RATHER COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH IS IN
THE OFFING. WINDS WILL DECREASE TNGT...ALLOWING FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS...WITH MAINLY 40S CLOSE TO THE COAST. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL INCLUDE PATCHY FROST INLAND LATE TNGT/EARLY SUNDAY.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS A LITTLE
MILDER THAN SATURDAY INLAND...AND ACTUALLY A BIT COOLER CLOSER TO
THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLIDE
INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN
MOVE TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS
FRONT SO KEEPING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO LOW END CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A EXTENDED
PERIOD OF FLOW RANGING FROM SOUTHWEST/SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH WARM
ADVECTION. A SERIES OF 500MB DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS UPCOMING WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT PERIODS WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER. WHILE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WILL NOT
BE ABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWERS AT ANY POINT. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS ARE NEARING PEAK AS THE COLD FRONT IS CROSSING SOUTH
FLORIDA. WITH WINDS NEARSHORE UNDER 20 KNOTS...WILL CANCEL THE
SCA...WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OFFSHORE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH BENIGN CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  34  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  61  44  60  46 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  64  38  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  64  50  60  49 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  66  37  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  68  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE




000
FXUS62 KJAX 272349
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
749 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015


.UPDATE...COLD FRONT WITH NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS NOW PUSHING SE
ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. JOHNS AND PUTNAM COUNTIES. FRONT AND PRECIP
WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY 03Z. CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS
ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS FRONTAL
PASSAGE PUSHES SE. ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS NW WINDS
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH BUILDING SEAS THIS EVENING.
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  40  60  37  64 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  46  62  43  62 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  43  65  44  63 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  47  64  48  64 /  20   0   0   0
GNV  44  66  40  67 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  46  68  41  68 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/SHULER/




000
FXUS62 KJAX 272349
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
749 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015


.UPDATE...COLD FRONT WITH NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS NOW PUSHING SE
ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. JOHNS AND PUTNAM COUNTIES. FRONT AND PRECIP
WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY 03Z. CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS
ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS FRONTAL
PASSAGE PUSHES SE. ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS NW WINDS
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH BUILDING SEAS THIS EVENING.
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  40  60  37  64 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  46  62  43  62 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  43  65  44  63 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  47  64  48  64 /  20   0   0   0
GNV  44  66  40  67 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  46  68  41  68 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/SHULER/





000
FXUS62 KJAX 271917
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
317 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COUNTIES REST OF
TODAY DUE TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...

...MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND ISOLD TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO FIRE AND DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED FROM
JESUP TO LAKE CITY. MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...
LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS PUT OUR ERN ZONES AND SE
SECTIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS GUSTY WINDS.
LATEST LAPS CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE
THREAT OF ANY ISOLD STRONG STORMS SHOULD END THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM NW TO SE AS THE
FRONT MOVES SEWD AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDS ON SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S INLAND WITH
UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 COAST. WITH WINDS STAYING UP AROUND 5-10 MPH
BY EARLY MORNING...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR
MOST AREAS. THE CHILL WILL PERSIST SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM THE
PRIOR FCST. WILL BE BREEZY SATURDAY WITH NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA
WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING IN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MIGHT SEE A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE REPLACED BY A ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WITH A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE/LOW OVER THE UPPER GULF
COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE ADVANCES EAST ON THURSDAY
BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. OVERALL TEMPS LOOKING TO START
OUT BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS BEING REALIZED IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS HERE IN
THE NEXT 2-3 HRS IN STORMS. ALREADY SEEN ONE OBSERVATION SHOW 2SM
IN A THUNDERSTORM SO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTN. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT THIS EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES AND W TO NW
WINDS EXPECTED AROUND 10-15 KT...SETTLING DOWN TO 5-10 KT LATE
TONIGHT THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS INCREASE FROM
THE NW AROUND 10-12G20KT SAT AND VFR PREVAILS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE S TO SW AROUND 15 KT OFFSHORE AND 10-15 KT
NEARSHORE PER LATEST RTMA ANALYSES. SEAS 2-4 FT. FLOW VEERS TO
THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN
BUT WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS/SEAS
GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SAT DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  40  60  37  64 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  46  62  43  62 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  43  65  44  63 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  47  64  48  64 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  44  66  40  67 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  46  68  41  68 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/SANDRIK




000
FXUS62 KJAX 271917
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
317 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COUNTIES REST OF
TODAY DUE TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...

...MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND ISOLD TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO FIRE AND DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED FROM
JESUP TO LAKE CITY. MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...
LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS PUT OUR ERN ZONES AND SE
SECTIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS GUSTY WINDS.
LATEST LAPS CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE
THREAT OF ANY ISOLD STRONG STORMS SHOULD END THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM NW TO SE AS THE
FRONT MOVES SEWD AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDS ON SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S INLAND WITH
UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 COAST. WITH WINDS STAYING UP AROUND 5-10 MPH
BY EARLY MORNING...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR
MOST AREAS. THE CHILL WILL PERSIST SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM THE
PRIOR FCST. WILL BE BREEZY SATURDAY WITH NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA
WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING IN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MIGHT SEE A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE REPLACED BY A ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WITH A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE/LOW OVER THE UPPER GULF
COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE ADVANCES EAST ON THURSDAY
BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. OVERALL TEMPS LOOKING TO START
OUT BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS BEING REALIZED IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS HERE IN
THE NEXT 2-3 HRS IN STORMS. ALREADY SEEN ONE OBSERVATION SHOW 2SM
IN A THUNDERSTORM SO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTN. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT THIS EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES AND W TO NW
WINDS EXPECTED AROUND 10-15 KT...SETTLING DOWN TO 5-10 KT LATE
TONIGHT THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS INCREASE FROM
THE NW AROUND 10-12G20KT SAT AND VFR PREVAILS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE S TO SW AROUND 15 KT OFFSHORE AND 10-15 KT
NEARSHORE PER LATEST RTMA ANALYSES. SEAS 2-4 FT. FLOW VEERS TO
THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN
BUT WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS/SEAS
GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SAT DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  40  60  37  64 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  46  62  43  62 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  43  65  44  63 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  47  64  48  64 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  44  66  40  67 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  46  68  41  68 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/SANDRIK




000
FXUS62 KJAX 271414
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1014 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT LIES FROM ERN GA TO THE FL PANHANDLE AND IS
MOVING STEADILY EWD. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN IN OUR
AREA AND AS THE FRONT PUSHES EWD AND PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE
VALUES (MEAN 1000-500 MB RH OF 80-95 PERCENT) RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WITH A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS. OWING TO TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TSTM INTENSITY
WILL BE HAMPERED BUT WE EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS
THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE DAYTIME HEATING IS UNDERWAY. BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDER GENERALLY NOON TO 4 PM. VSBY IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALREADY IN NE FL. BASED ON
THIS HAVE INCREASED TEMPS 2-3 DEG E OF HIGHWAY 301 TO JAX AND EWD
TO THE COAST. BASED LATEST RADAR DATA HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT THIS
MORNING BUT CONTINUED WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...ONLY ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA AT THIS TIME
BUT CIGS ARE LOWERING A BIT TO LOW END MVFR AT TIMES. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND ANY TSTMS BUT IFR POSSIBLE. PRECIP
CHANCES LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY BY ABOUT 19Z FOR SSI AND 19Z-22Z FOR
NE FL TAFS AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCD PRECIP MOVES E AND SE. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING. SW WINDS 6-12 KT THROUGH MID MORNING
WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KT THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL BECOME NW 9-12 KT THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS NOTED AROUND 10-15 KT AT 9 AM AND WILL INCREASE TO
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH FLOW VEERING TO THE WEST
THEN NORTHWEST AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE WATERS. SCEC FOR TODAY
NEARSHORE AND MARGINAL SCA BEGINS THIS AFTN AND THEN SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  41  60  35 /  60   0   0   0
SSI  72  45  59  41 /  80   0   0   0
JAX  75  46  64  38 /  90  10   0   0
SGJ  76  48  62  45 /  90  10   0   0
GNV  75  44  66  39 /  90  10   0   0
OCF  76  46  68  39 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/SANDRIK/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 271414
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1014 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT LIES FROM ERN GA TO THE FL PANHANDLE AND IS
MOVING STEADILY EWD. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN IN OUR
AREA AND AS THE FRONT PUSHES EWD AND PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE
VALUES (MEAN 1000-500 MB RH OF 80-95 PERCENT) RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WITH A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS. OWING TO TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TSTM INTENSITY
WILL BE HAMPERED BUT WE EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS
THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE DAYTIME HEATING IS UNDERWAY. BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDER GENERALLY NOON TO 4 PM. VSBY IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALREADY IN NE FL. BASED ON
THIS HAVE INCREASED TEMPS 2-3 DEG E OF HIGHWAY 301 TO JAX AND EWD
TO THE COAST. BASED LATEST RADAR DATA HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT THIS
MORNING BUT CONTINUED WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...ONLY ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA AT THIS TIME
BUT CIGS ARE LOWERING A BIT TO LOW END MVFR AT TIMES. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND ANY TSTMS BUT IFR POSSIBLE. PRECIP
CHANCES LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY BY ABOUT 19Z FOR SSI AND 19Z-22Z FOR
NE FL TAFS AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCD PRECIP MOVES E AND SE. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING. SW WINDS 6-12 KT THROUGH MID MORNING
WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KT THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL BECOME NW 9-12 KT THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS NOTED AROUND 10-15 KT AT 9 AM AND WILL INCREASE TO
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH FLOW VEERING TO THE WEST
THEN NORTHWEST AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE WATERS. SCEC FOR TODAY
NEARSHORE AND MARGINAL SCA BEGINS THIS AFTN AND THEN SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  41  60  35 /  60   0   0   0
SSI  72  45  59  41 /  80   0   0   0
JAX  75  46  64  38 /  90  10   0   0
SGJ  76  48  62  45 /  90  10   0   0
GNV  75  44  66  39 /  90  10   0   0
OCF  76  46  68  39 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/SANDRIK/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 270711
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
311 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...

...MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PRE-FRONTAL WAVE IN MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN A
SWATH OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXTENDING FROM THE GA COASTAL WATERS
TO NE FL...TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SWATH OF PRECIP
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE BY MORNING. ANOTHER PRE-FRONTAL WAVE WILL
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
TSTMS WITH THE WAVE THIS MORNING...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STORM BY LATE MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
INTERIOR SE GA BY MID/LATE MORNING...CROSSING NE FL EARLY
IN THE AFTN...EXITING INTO CENTRAL FL BY LATE AFTN. WITH
DECENT MOISTURE POOLING...WILL USE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL CROSSING...WITH POPS
DECREASING RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTN. SOME DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER...HEATING
WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE INSTABILITY...THUS
WILL KEEP TSTM COVERAGE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE GREATEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO ORGANIZED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTN. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE EVENING...AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S INLAND WITH UPPER 40S/AROUND 50
COAST. WITH BREEZY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS. THE CHILL WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DRY COOL FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING...AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS. SCATTERED EVENING CLOUDS WILL BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD ADVECTION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 30S
INLAND WILL BE COMMON...WITH READINGS 40 TO 45 SOUTH AND COAST.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SKIES CLEAR...AND
ALLOW WARM ADVECTION TO BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE GA
COAST...TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY...A COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH TO NEAR THE FL/GA LINE. MODELS INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY DRYING
AS IT MOVES SOUTH...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LEADING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT GNV/VQQ
IN A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIP. FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS...VFR EARLY
IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY WORSEN TO LOW END MVFR TO IFR IN
REDUCED CIGS LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING. PRECIP WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE LATE MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT...WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS AFTN. MVFR WILL PREVAIL WITH THE PRECIP
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. WITH TSTM
COVERAGE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...WILL USE VCTS FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT GNV WHERE PROB30 FOR AFTN TS WILL BE USED. PRECIP
WILL END BY LATE AFTN...WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING.
SW WINDS 6-12 KT THROUGH MID MORNING WILL VEER TO THE WEST
AND INCREASE TO 10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTN.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW 9-12 KT THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH FLOW VEERING TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST
AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE WATERS. WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN THROUGH SATURDAY...AND FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  41  60  35 /  80   0   0   0
SSI  73  45  59  41 /  80   0   0   0
JAX  75  46  64  38 /  90  10   0   0
SGJ  74  48  62  45 /  90  10   0   0
GNV  75  44  66  39 /  90  10   0   0
OCF  76  46  68  39 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE




000
FXUS62 KJAX 270711
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
311 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...

...MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PRE-FRONTAL WAVE IN MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN A
SWATH OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXTENDING FROM THE GA COASTAL WATERS
TO NE FL...TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SWATH OF PRECIP
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE BY MORNING. ANOTHER PRE-FRONTAL WAVE WILL
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
TSTMS WITH THE WAVE THIS MORNING...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STORM BY LATE MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
INTERIOR SE GA BY MID/LATE MORNING...CROSSING NE FL EARLY
IN THE AFTN...EXITING INTO CENTRAL FL BY LATE AFTN. WITH
DECENT MOISTURE POOLING...WILL USE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL CROSSING...WITH POPS
DECREASING RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTN. SOME DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER...HEATING
WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE INSTABILITY...THUS
WILL KEEP TSTM COVERAGE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE GREATEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO ORGANIZED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTN. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE EVENING...AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S INLAND WITH UPPER 40S/AROUND 50
COAST. WITH BREEZY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS. THE CHILL WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DRY COOL FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING...AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS. SCATTERED EVENING CLOUDS WILL BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD ADVECTION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 30S
INLAND WILL BE COMMON...WITH READINGS 40 TO 45 SOUTH AND COAST.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SKIES CLEAR...AND
ALLOW WARM ADVECTION TO BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE GA
COAST...TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY...A COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH TO NEAR THE FL/GA LINE. MODELS INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY DRYING
AS IT MOVES SOUTH...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LEADING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT GNV/VQQ
IN A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIP. FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS...VFR EARLY
IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY WORSEN TO LOW END MVFR TO IFR IN
REDUCED CIGS LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING. PRECIP WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE LATE MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT...WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS AFTN. MVFR WILL PREVAIL WITH THE PRECIP
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. WITH TSTM
COVERAGE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...WILL USE VCTS FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT GNV WHERE PROB30 FOR AFTN TS WILL BE USED. PRECIP
WILL END BY LATE AFTN...WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING.
SW WINDS 6-12 KT THROUGH MID MORNING WILL VEER TO THE WEST
AND INCREASE TO 10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTN.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW 9-12 KT THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH FLOW VEERING TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST
AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE WATERS. WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN THROUGH SATURDAY...AND FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  41  60  35 /  80   0   0   0
SSI  73  45  59  41 /  80   0   0   0
JAX  75  46  64  38 /  90  10   0   0
SGJ  74  48  62  45 /  90  10   0   0
GNV  75  44  66  39 /  90  10   0   0
OCF  76  46  68  39 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE




000
FXUS62 KJAX 270711
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
311 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...

...MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PRE-FRONTAL WAVE IN MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN A
SWATH OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXTENDING FROM THE GA COASTAL WATERS
TO NE FL...TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SWATH OF PRECIP
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE BY MORNING. ANOTHER PRE-FRONTAL WAVE WILL
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
TSTMS WITH THE WAVE THIS MORNING...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STORM BY LATE MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
INTERIOR SE GA BY MID/LATE MORNING...CROSSING NE FL EARLY
IN THE AFTN...EXITING INTO CENTRAL FL BY LATE AFTN. WITH
DECENT MOISTURE POOLING...WILL USE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL CROSSING...WITH POPS
DECREASING RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTN. SOME DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER...HEATING
WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE INSTABILITY...THUS
WILL KEEP TSTM COVERAGE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE GREATEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO ORGANIZED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTN. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE EVENING...AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S INLAND WITH UPPER 40S/AROUND 50
COAST. WITH BREEZY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS. THE CHILL WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DRY COOL FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING...AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS. SCATTERED EVENING CLOUDS WILL BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD ADVECTION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 30S
INLAND WILL BE COMMON...WITH READINGS 40 TO 45 SOUTH AND COAST.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SKIES CLEAR...AND
ALLOW WARM ADVECTION TO BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE GA
COAST...TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY...A COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH TO NEAR THE FL/GA LINE. MODELS INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY DRYING
AS IT MOVES SOUTH...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LEADING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT GNV/VQQ
IN A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIP. FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS...VFR EARLY
IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY WORSEN TO LOW END MVFR TO IFR IN
REDUCED CIGS LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING. PRECIP WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE LATE MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT...WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS AFTN. MVFR WILL PREVAIL WITH THE PRECIP
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. WITH TSTM
COVERAGE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...WILL USE VCTS FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT GNV WHERE PROB30 FOR AFTN TS WILL BE USED. PRECIP
WILL END BY LATE AFTN...WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING.
SW WINDS 6-12 KT THROUGH MID MORNING WILL VEER TO THE WEST
AND INCREASE TO 10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTN.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW 9-12 KT THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH FLOW VEERING TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST
AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE WATERS. WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN THROUGH SATURDAY...AND FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  41  60  35 /  80   0   0   0
SSI  73  45  59  41 /  80   0   0   0
JAX  75  46  64  38 /  90  10   0   0
SGJ  74  48  62  45 /  90  10   0   0
GNV  75  44  66  39 /  90  10   0   0
OCF  76  46  68  39 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE





000
FXUS62 KJAX 270711
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
311 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...

...MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PRE-FRONTAL WAVE IN MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN A
SWATH OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXTENDING FROM THE GA COASTAL WATERS
TO NE FL...TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SWATH OF PRECIP
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE BY MORNING. ANOTHER PRE-FRONTAL WAVE WILL
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
TSTMS WITH THE WAVE THIS MORNING...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STORM BY LATE MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
INTERIOR SE GA BY MID/LATE MORNING...CROSSING NE FL EARLY
IN THE AFTN...EXITING INTO CENTRAL FL BY LATE AFTN. WITH
DECENT MOISTURE POOLING...WILL USE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL CROSSING...WITH POPS
DECREASING RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTN. SOME DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER...HEATING
WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE INSTABILITY...THUS
WILL KEEP TSTM COVERAGE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE GREATEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO ORGANIZED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTN. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE EVENING...AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S INLAND WITH UPPER 40S/AROUND 50
COAST. WITH BREEZY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS. THE CHILL WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DRY COOL FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING...AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS. SCATTERED EVENING CLOUDS WILL BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD ADVECTION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 30S
INLAND WILL BE COMMON...WITH READINGS 40 TO 45 SOUTH AND COAST.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SKIES CLEAR...AND
ALLOW WARM ADVECTION TO BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE GA
COAST...TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY...A COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH TO NEAR THE FL/GA LINE. MODELS INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY DRYING
AS IT MOVES SOUTH...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LEADING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT GNV/VQQ
IN A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIP. FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS...VFR EARLY
IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY WORSEN TO LOW END MVFR TO IFR IN
REDUCED CIGS LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING. PRECIP WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE LATE MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT...WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS AFTN. MVFR WILL PREVAIL WITH THE PRECIP
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. WITH TSTM
COVERAGE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...WILL USE VCTS FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT GNV WHERE PROB30 FOR AFTN TS WILL BE USED. PRECIP
WILL END BY LATE AFTN...WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING.
SW WINDS 6-12 KT THROUGH MID MORNING WILL VEER TO THE WEST
AND INCREASE TO 10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTN.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW 9-12 KT THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH FLOW VEERING TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST
AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE WATERS. WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN THROUGH SATURDAY...AND FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  41  60  35 /  80   0   0   0
SSI  73  45  59  41 /  80   0   0   0
JAX  75  46  64  38 /  90  10   0   0
SGJ  74  48  62  45 /  90  10   0   0
GNV  75  44  66  39 /  90  10   0   0
OCF  76  46  68  39 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE





000
FXUS62 KJAX 270120
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...BREEZY WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...

.UPDATE...
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED SLOWLY THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH PUSHING INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND SCATTERED
ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF THE GULF. WITH LACK INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY IN THE 60S
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
FORMATION DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND EXITS INTO THE ATLC LATE IN THE DAY.
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE EMBEDDED STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OTHERWISE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF FRONT WILL BUILD W/SW WINDS TO 15-20G30 MPH AT TIMES. MAX TEMPS
WILL PUSH ONLY ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE FRI MORNING LOWS...AND WILL
REACH GENERALLY INTO THE 70S ACROSS ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z AS RESIDUAL
SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
06Z...WITH LOW IFR CIGS AROUND 500 FT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
10Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 35 KNOTS AROUND 2000 FT BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AT THE
TERMINALS...WHERE SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS MAY CREATE SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TOWARDS 13Z-14Z...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THEN MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
15Z-21Z TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SW FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES TONIGHT CLOSE TO 15-20 KNOTS BY MORNING
AND SCEC HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE LEGS. SW/W FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY AND WILL PUSH
CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND EXPECT THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE TO RAISE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: BECOMING LOW WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  70  39  61 /  30  60   0   0
SSI  62  73  44  59 /  60  70  10   0
JAX  64  76  43  63 /  40  70  10   0
SGJ  65  78  45  62 /  30  80  10   0
GNV  65  77  44  66 /  40  80  10   0
OCF  66  78  43  66 /  40  80  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/PETERSON




000
FXUS62 KJAX 270120
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...BREEZY WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...

.UPDATE...
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED SLOWLY THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH PUSHING INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND SCATTERED
ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF THE GULF. WITH LACK INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY IN THE 60S
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
FORMATION DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND EXITS INTO THE ATLC LATE IN THE DAY.
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE EMBEDDED STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OTHERWISE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF FRONT WILL BUILD W/SW WINDS TO 15-20G30 MPH AT TIMES. MAX TEMPS
WILL PUSH ONLY ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE FRI MORNING LOWS...AND WILL
REACH GENERALLY INTO THE 70S ACROSS ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z AS RESIDUAL
SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
06Z...WITH LOW IFR CIGS AROUND 500 FT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
10Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 35 KNOTS AROUND 2000 FT BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AT THE
TERMINALS...WHERE SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS MAY CREATE SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TOWARDS 13Z-14Z...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THEN MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
15Z-21Z TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SW FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES TONIGHT CLOSE TO 15-20 KNOTS BY MORNING
AND SCEC HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE LEGS. SW/W FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY AND WILL PUSH
CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND EXPECT THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE TO RAISE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: BECOMING LOW WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  70  39  61 /  30  60   0   0
SSI  62  73  44  59 /  60  70  10   0
JAX  64  76  43  63 /  40  70  10   0
SGJ  65  78  45  62 /  30  80  10   0
GNV  65  77  44  66 /  40  80  10   0
OCF  66  78  43  66 /  40  80  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/PETERSON





000
FXUS62 KJAX 261944
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
344 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.REST OF TODAY...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS ON CURRENT RADAR LOOPS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA AND
INLAND PORTIONS OF SE GA. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ATTM.
TEMPS ARE NEAR 75 TO LOWER 80 DEG RANGE.

.TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER NRN GA TO THE FL PANHANDLE
DROPS SEWD TOWARD OUR AREA AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ROTATE THROUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING OVER THE
WRN HALF OF THE CWA. TIMING THIS IS A BIT CHALLENGING AND FOR NOW
HAVE ADVERTISED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE WITH 30-50
PERCENT OVER THE ERN PORTIONS. THESE VALUES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
AND WORDING CHANGED TO REFLECT LOWER CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT AND ANOTHER ONE COMES. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG THE
DURATION AND LOCATION SEEMS TOO DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN SO WILL LEAVE
OUT AND LET NEXT SHIFT MONITOR. MAY ALSO BE SOME SEA FOG OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON THE FOG FCST AND WINDS WILL BE
UP AROUND THE 8-10 KT RANGE WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG INTENSITY TO A
MINIMUM. SOME ISOLD TSTMS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING...AND AGAIN BY
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO COLD FRONT.

.SHORT TERM...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...EXITING TO THE SOUTH BY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ALONG
AND AHEAD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA DURING THE
MID TO LATE MORNING DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL BY EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BUT WITH MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS NE FL WITH
ESTIMATED VALUES OF BETWEEN A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT THE SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE DAY
BETWEEN 10-15 MPH GUSTING 20-25 MPH BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...CLEARING BEGINNING IN NORTHERN AREAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY EVENING AS SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS PUSHES INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPS FRI NIGHT
WILL DROP NEAR 20 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S ACROSS SE GA AND LOW/MID 40S FOR MUCH OF NE FL.
UNFORTUNATELY WITH NW WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AT
5-10 MPH GUSTING 15-20 MPH TEMPS WILL FEEL COLDER THAN THEY ACTUALLY
ARE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW/MID 60S IN MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN IN A COUPLE WEEKS
WITH LOW TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA TO
LOW/MID 40S IN NE FL AND IN COASTAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL COME UP A
COUPLE DEGREES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS DOWN INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER INLAND AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SEA BREEZES
PROGRESS INLAND BOTH AFTERNOONS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM BACK UP INTO
THE 70S ON MONDAY AS GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR PREVAILS AT THE TAFS AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS OUTSIDE ANY SHOWER OR TSTMS THAT DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE
OF TSTMS WILL BE AROUND GNV. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST TONIGHT AND HAVE VICINITY WORDING AT THIS
TIME...WITH CHANCE CONVECTION INCREASING LATE TONIGHT BY 09Z AND
CONTINUING ELEVATED THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA PRODUCING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED
TSTMS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW INDICATED IFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CONDS PERIOD
FROM ABOUT 07Z-14Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 15Z WITH WINDS
TURNING FROM SW TO W DURING THE DAY AROUND 10-15G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH SCEC HEADLINED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A MARGINAL SCA POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT AREAL COVERAGE NOT LARGE SO WILL NO HOIST
ONE. WINDS LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LINGERING EAST SWELLS CONTINUES A MODERATE RISK TODAY.
SURF ESTIMATED AT LEAST 2-3 FT AT TIMES. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ON
FRIDAY SO RISK IS LOW ATTM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RISK EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10-
15 MPH GUSTING 20-25 MPH AND RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 25-30 PERCENT
ALONG WITH ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES...BUT WITH THE MODERATE
RAINFALL EVENT ON FRIDAY GROUND MOISTURE SHOULD BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG CRITERIA FROM BEING MET.


&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  68  39  61 /  60  60   0   0
SSI  64  71  44  59 /  50  70  10   0
JAX  64  74  43  63 /  50  70  10   0
SGJ  66  74  45  62 /  40  80  10   0
GNV  64  74  44  66 /  50  80  10   0
OCF  65  76  43  66 /  60  80  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/GUILLET/




000
FXUS62 KJAX 261944
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
344 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.REST OF TODAY...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS ON CURRENT RADAR LOOPS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA AND
INLAND PORTIONS OF SE GA. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ATTM.
TEMPS ARE NEAR 75 TO LOWER 80 DEG RANGE.

.TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER NRN GA TO THE FL PANHANDLE
DROPS SEWD TOWARD OUR AREA AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ROTATE THROUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING OVER THE
WRN HALF OF THE CWA. TIMING THIS IS A BIT CHALLENGING AND FOR NOW
HAVE ADVERTISED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE WITH 30-50
PERCENT OVER THE ERN PORTIONS. THESE VALUES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
AND WORDING CHANGED TO REFLECT LOWER CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT AND ANOTHER ONE COMES. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG THE
DURATION AND LOCATION SEEMS TOO DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN SO WILL LEAVE
OUT AND LET NEXT SHIFT MONITOR. MAY ALSO BE SOME SEA FOG OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON THE FOG FCST AND WINDS WILL BE
UP AROUND THE 8-10 KT RANGE WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG INTENSITY TO A
MINIMUM. SOME ISOLD TSTMS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING...AND AGAIN BY
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO COLD FRONT.

.SHORT TERM...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...EXITING TO THE SOUTH BY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ALONG
AND AHEAD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA DURING THE
MID TO LATE MORNING DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL BY EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BUT WITH MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS NE FL WITH
ESTIMATED VALUES OF BETWEEN A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT THE SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE DAY
BETWEEN 10-15 MPH GUSTING 20-25 MPH BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...CLEARING BEGINNING IN NORTHERN AREAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY EVENING AS SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS PUSHES INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPS FRI NIGHT
WILL DROP NEAR 20 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S ACROSS SE GA AND LOW/MID 40S FOR MUCH OF NE FL.
UNFORTUNATELY WITH NW WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AT
5-10 MPH GUSTING 15-20 MPH TEMPS WILL FEEL COLDER THAN THEY ACTUALLY
ARE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW/MID 60S IN MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN IN A COUPLE WEEKS
WITH LOW TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA TO
LOW/MID 40S IN NE FL AND IN COASTAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL COME UP A
COUPLE DEGREES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS DOWN INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER INLAND AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SEA BREEZES
PROGRESS INLAND BOTH AFTERNOONS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM BACK UP INTO
THE 70S ON MONDAY AS GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR PREVAILS AT THE TAFS AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS OUTSIDE ANY SHOWER OR TSTMS THAT DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE
OF TSTMS WILL BE AROUND GNV. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST TONIGHT AND HAVE VICINITY WORDING AT THIS
TIME...WITH CHANCE CONVECTION INCREASING LATE TONIGHT BY 09Z AND
CONTINUING ELEVATED THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA PRODUCING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED
TSTMS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW INDICATED IFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CONDS PERIOD
FROM ABOUT 07Z-14Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 15Z WITH WINDS
TURNING FROM SW TO W DURING THE DAY AROUND 10-15G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH SCEC HEADLINED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A MARGINAL SCA POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT AREAL COVERAGE NOT LARGE SO WILL NO HOIST
ONE. WINDS LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LINGERING EAST SWELLS CONTINUES A MODERATE RISK TODAY.
SURF ESTIMATED AT LEAST 2-3 FT AT TIMES. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ON
FRIDAY SO RISK IS LOW ATTM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RISK EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10-
15 MPH GUSTING 20-25 MPH AND RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 25-30 PERCENT
ALONG WITH ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES...BUT WITH THE MODERATE
RAINFALL EVENT ON FRIDAY GROUND MOISTURE SHOULD BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG CRITERIA FROM BEING MET.


&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  68  39  61 /  60  60   0   0
SSI  64  71  44  59 /  50  70  10   0
JAX  64  74  43  63 /  50  70  10   0
SGJ  66  74  45  62 /  40  80  10   0
GNV  64  74  44  66 /  50  80  10   0
OCF  65  76  43  66 /  60  80  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/GUILLET/





000
FXUS62 KJAX 261430
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1030 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVY ALREADY EXPIRED FOR NE FL AND ONLY LINGERING
VISIBILITIES AROUND 3-5 MILES IN SPOTS NEXT HOUR OR SO. MODELS
SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE SRN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS REFLECT THIS WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES IN NRN MARION AND SW
PUTNAM COUNTIES. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT
ESPECIALLY THE SRN AND SERN PARTS OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS
WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND WILL RETAIN ISOLD TO SCT STORM ACTIVITY
BUT NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE ACTIVITY. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE SRN ZONES. HAVE TWEAKED DOWN
TEMPS 1-2 DEGS IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED AT MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT VQQ
AND CRG SHOWING PERSISTENT MVFR VSBY BUT THIS TOO WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND VERY ISOLD TSTMS OVER NE
FL THAT ARE MOVING OVER GNV TO OCF AREAS...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE
ENE TO NE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM IN THE AFTN
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT BEST COVERAGE (70 PRCT) WILL BE OVER
LOCATIONS JUST S AND E OF GNV-JAX LINE. THUS...THINK THAT CIG AND
VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIKELY FOR ALL NE FL TERMINALS...WITH
LESS CHANCE OF IMPACTS AT SSI SO HAVE VICINITY WORDING THERE.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION THIS CONVECTION BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF IFR CATEGORY. PREVAILING VFR TONIGHT THOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST THAT WOULD LIKELY
REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO MVFR BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH MORNING HOURS. DENSE FOG ADVY CONTINUES N
OF THE ST AUGUSTINE THIS MORNING AND MAY BE EXPIRED EARLY PENDING
REPORTS AND SATELLITE IMAGES. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING S TO SW FLOW
AOB 15 KT THROUGH TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
STORM IN THE AFTN AND FOR TONIGHT. SEAS ARE AT OR BELOW 5 FT
TODAY...BUT INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK DUE TO E SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  62  67  40 /  40  50  60   0
SSI  72  62  70  45 /  40  40  70  10
JAX  80  63  73  45 /  50  40  80  10
SGJ  77  64  73  47 /  70  30  80  10
GNV  82  64  74  46 /  70  40  80  10
OCF  82  65  75  45 /  70  40  80  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/GUILLET/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 261430
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1030 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVY ALREADY EXPIRED FOR NE FL AND ONLY LINGERING
VISIBILITIES AROUND 3-5 MILES IN SPOTS NEXT HOUR OR SO. MODELS
SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE SRN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS REFLECT THIS WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES IN NRN MARION AND SW
PUTNAM COUNTIES. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT
ESPECIALLY THE SRN AND SERN PARTS OF THE CWA. BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS
WILL BE IN THE AFTN AND WILL RETAIN ISOLD TO SCT STORM ACTIVITY
BUT NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE ACTIVITY. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE SRN ZONES. HAVE TWEAKED DOWN
TEMPS 1-2 DEGS IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED AT MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT VQQ
AND CRG SHOWING PERSISTENT MVFR VSBY BUT THIS TOO WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND VERY ISOLD TSTMS OVER NE
FL THAT ARE MOVING OVER GNV TO OCF AREAS...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE
ENE TO NE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM IN THE AFTN
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT BEST COVERAGE (70 PRCT) WILL BE OVER
LOCATIONS JUST S AND E OF GNV-JAX LINE. THUS...THINK THAT CIG AND
VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIKELY FOR ALL NE FL TERMINALS...WITH
LESS CHANCE OF IMPACTS AT SSI SO HAVE VICINITY WORDING THERE.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION THIS CONVECTION BUT
CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF IFR CATEGORY. PREVAILING VFR TONIGHT THOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST THAT WOULD LIKELY
REDUCE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO MVFR BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH MORNING HOURS. DENSE FOG ADVY CONTINUES N
OF THE ST AUGUSTINE THIS MORNING AND MAY BE EXPIRED EARLY PENDING
REPORTS AND SATELLITE IMAGES. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING S TO SW FLOW
AOB 15 KT THROUGH TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
STORM IN THE AFTN AND FOR TONIGHT. SEAS ARE AT OR BELOW 5 FT
TODAY...BUT INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK DUE TO E SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  62  67  40 /  40  50  60   0
SSI  72  62  70  45 /  40  40  70  10
JAX  80  63  73  45 /  50  40  80  10
SGJ  77  64  73  47 /  70  30  80  10
GNV  82  64  74  46 /  70  40  80  10
OCF  82  65  75  45 /  70  40  80  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/GUILLET/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 261017
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
617 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO
INCLUDE THE JACKSONVILLE METRO AREA INCLUDING THE SUWANNEE VALLEY...
GAIESVILLE... PALATKA...AND ST AUGUSTINE. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MID MORNING REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER
OF A MILE OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VLIFR AT ALL NE FL TERMINALS TIL 14Z. OCNL LIFR AT SSI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  62  67  40 /  40  50  60   0
SSI  75  62  70  45 /  40  40  70  10
JAX  81  63  73  45 /  40  40  80  10
SGJ  79  64  73  47 /  40  40  80  10
GNV  83  64  74  46 /  40  40  80  10
OCF  84  65  75  45 /  40  50  80  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA-
     BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COASTAL DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-COLUMBIA-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-INLAND DUVAL-INLAND NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST.
     JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ZA





000
FXUS62 KJAX 261017
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
617 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO
INCLUDE THE JACKSONVILLE METRO AREA INCLUDING THE SUWANNEE VALLEY...
GAIESVILLE... PALATKA...AND ST AUGUSTINE. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MID MORNING REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER
OF A MILE OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VLIFR AT ALL NE FL TERMINALS TIL 14Z. OCNL LIFR AT SSI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  62  67  40 /  40  50  60   0
SSI  75  62  70  45 /  40  40  70  10
JAX  81  63  73  45 /  40  40  80  10
SGJ  79  64  73  47 /  40  40  80  10
GNV  83  64  74  46 /  40  40  80  10
OCF  84  65  75  45 /  40  50  80  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA-
     BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COASTAL DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-COLUMBIA-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-INLAND DUVAL-INLAND NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST.
     JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ZA




000
FXUS62 KJAX 261017
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
617 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO
INCLUDE THE JACKSONVILLE METRO AREA INCLUDING THE SUWANNEE VALLEY...
GAIESVILLE... PALATKA...AND ST AUGUSTINE. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MID MORNING REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER
OF A MILE OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VLIFR AT ALL NE FL TERMINALS TIL 14Z. OCNL LIFR AT SSI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  62  67  40 /  40  50  60   0
SSI  75  62  70  45 /  40  40  70  10
JAX  81  63  73  45 /  40  40  80  10
SGJ  79  64  73  47 /  40  40  80  10
GNV  83  64  74  46 /  40  40  80  10
OCF  84  65  75  45 /  40  50  80  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA-
     BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COASTAL DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-COLUMBIA-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-INLAND DUVAL-INLAND NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST.
     JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ZA





000
FXUS62 KJAX 260930 AAA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
530 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO INCLUDE THE JACKSONVILLE METRO AREA INCLUDING
GAIESVILLE... PALATKA...AND ST AUGUSTINE. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MID MORNING REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER
OF A MILE OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...VLIFR AT ALL NE FL TERMINALS TIL 14Z. OCNL LIFR AT SSI.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...

...MUCH WARMER TEMPS TODAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND...

...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...

EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES UNTIL
AROUND MID MORNING.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES TO THE SE WHILE
A STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN
SIGNIFICANT WARMING AS WINDS VEER TO THE SW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MOISTURE INITIALLY APPEARS LIMITED BUT MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA AND COMBINES WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SEABREEZES. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE UPPER SUWANNEE VALLEY INTO
INLAND SE GA AND ALSO THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME DESTABILIZATION DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING SO ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING...AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL HELP HOLD BACK
MAX TEMPS SOMEWHAT... BUT MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT GET GOING
WILL FADE OUT IN THE EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODELS STILL GOOD IN AGREEMENT ON A COLD
FRONT ENTERING SE GA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT...CROSSING NE FL FRIDAY
MORNING... EXITING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY AFTN. WILL USE
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS NE FL WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
BE AND LIKELY POPS IN SE GA. STILL ALSO APPEARS JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT SEVERE STORMS NOT
EXPECTED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NE FL (HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE SE) TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS INLAND SE GA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

PRECIP WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SKIES
CLEARING BY THE OVERNIGHT AREA WIDE. COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S INLAND...WITH 45-50 COAST. IN ADDITION...WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE
30S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. MOSTLY SUNNY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE THEM WEAKENING
SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SE GA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF NE FL. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG WILL LOWER THE VSBY TO OCNL VLIFR AT JAX AND
POSSIBLY AT VQQ WITH MOSTLY OCNL IFR ELSEWHERE TIL AROUND 14Z-15Z.
OTHERWISE PREVAILING WITH VCSH AT MOST TERMINALS AFT 18Z. VCTS MAY
BE NEEDED AT THE FL SITES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SE ...A STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE WATERS. THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS FRIDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LINGERING EAST SWELLS WARRANTS A CONTINUED MODERATE
RISK. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL DOWNGRADE THE RISK TO LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  62  67  40 /  40  50  60   0
SSI  75  62  70  45 /  40  40  70  10
JAX  81  63  73  45 /  40  40  80  10
SGJ  79  64  73  47 /  40  40  80  10
GNV  83  64  74  46 /  40  40  80  10
OCF  84  65  75  45 /  40  50  80  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ZA




000
FXUS62 KJAX 260753
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
353 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...MUCH WARMER TEMPS TODAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND...

...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...

EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES UNTIL
AROUND MID MORNING.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES TO THE SE WHILE
A STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN
SIGNIFICANT WARMING AS WINDS VEER TO THE SW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MOISTURE INITIALLY APPEARS LIMITED BUT MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA AND COMBINES WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SEABREEZES. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE UPPER SUWANNEE VALLEY INTO
INLAND SE GA AND ALSO THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME DESTABILIZATION DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING SO ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING...AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL HELP HOLD BACK
MAX TEMPS SOMEWHAT... BUT MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT GET GOING
WILL FADE OUT IN THE EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODELS STILL GOOD IN AGREEMENT ON A COLD
FRONT ENTERING SE GA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT...CROSSING NE FL FRIDAY
MORNING... EXITING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY AFTN. WILL USE
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS NE FL WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
BE AND LIKELY POPS IN SE GA. STILL ALSO APPEARS JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT SEVERE STORMS NOT
EXPECTED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NE FL (HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE SE) TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS INLAND SE GA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

PRECIP WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SKIES
CLEARING BY THE OVERNIGHT AREA WIDE. COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S INLAND...WITH 45-50 COAST. IN ADDITION...WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE
30S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. MOSTLY SUNNY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE THEM WEAKENING
SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SE GA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF NE FL. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG WILL LOWER THE VSBY TO OCNL VLIFR AT JAX AND
POSSIBLY AT VQQ WITH MOSTLY OCNL IFR ELSEWHERE TIL AROUND 14Z-15Z.
OTHERWISE PREVAILING WITH VCSH AT MOST TERMINALS AFT 18Z. VCTS MAY
BE NEEDED AT THE FL SITES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SE ...A STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE WATERS. THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS FRIDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LINGERING EAST SWELLS WARRANTS A CONTINUED MODERATE
RISK. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL DOWNGRADE THE RISK TO LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  62  67  40 /  40  50  60   0
SSI  75  62  70  45 /  40  40  70  10
JAX  81  63  73  45 /  40  40  80  10
SGJ  79  64  73  47 /  40  40  80  10
GNV  83  64  74  46 /  40  40  80  10
OCF  84  65  75  45 /  40  50  80  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ZA





000
FXUS62 KJAX 260753
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
353 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...MUCH WARMER TEMPS TODAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND...

...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...

EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES UNTIL
AROUND MID MORNING.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES TO THE SE WHILE
A STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN
SIGNIFICANT WARMING AS WINDS VEER TO THE SW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MOISTURE INITIALLY APPEARS LIMITED BUT MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA AND COMBINES WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SEABREEZES. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE UPPER SUWANNEE VALLEY INTO
INLAND SE GA AND ALSO THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME DESTABILIZATION DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING SO ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING...AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL HELP HOLD BACK
MAX TEMPS SOMEWHAT... BUT MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT GET GOING
WILL FADE OUT IN THE EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODELS STILL GOOD IN AGREEMENT ON A COLD
FRONT ENTERING SE GA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT...CROSSING NE FL FRIDAY
MORNING... EXITING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY AFTN. WILL USE
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS NE FL WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
BE AND LIKELY POPS IN SE GA. STILL ALSO APPEARS JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT SEVERE STORMS NOT
EXPECTED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NE FL (HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE SE) TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS INLAND SE GA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

PRECIP WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SKIES
CLEARING BY THE OVERNIGHT AREA WIDE. COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S INLAND...WITH 45-50 COAST. IN ADDITION...WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE
30S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. MOSTLY SUNNY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE THEM WEAKENING
SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SE GA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF NE FL. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG WILL LOWER THE VSBY TO OCNL VLIFR AT JAX AND
POSSIBLY AT VQQ WITH MOSTLY OCNL IFR ELSEWHERE TIL AROUND 14Z-15Z.
OTHERWISE PREVAILING WITH VCSH AT MOST TERMINALS AFT 18Z. VCTS MAY
BE NEEDED AT THE FL SITES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SE ...A STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE WATERS. THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS FRIDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LINGERING EAST SWELLS WARRANTS A CONTINUED MODERATE
RISK. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL DOWNGRADE THE RISK TO LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  62  67  40 /  40  50  60   0
SSI  75  62  70  45 /  40  40  70  10
JAX  81  63  73  45 /  40  40  80  10
SGJ  79  64  73  47 /  40  40  80  10
GNV  83  64  74  46 /  40  40  80  10
OCF  84  65  75  45 /  40  50  80  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ZA





000
FXUS62 KJAX 260753
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
353 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...MUCH WARMER TEMPS TODAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND...

...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...

EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES UNTIL
AROUND MID MORNING.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES TO THE SE WHILE
A STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN
SIGNIFICANT WARMING AS WINDS VEER TO THE SW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MOISTURE INITIALLY APPEARS LIMITED BUT MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA AND COMBINES WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SEABREEZES. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE UPPER SUWANNEE VALLEY INTO
INLAND SE GA AND ALSO THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME DESTABILIZATION DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING SO ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING...AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL HELP HOLD BACK
MAX TEMPS SOMEWHAT... BUT MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT GET GOING
WILL FADE OUT IN THE EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODELS STILL GOOD IN AGREEMENT ON A COLD
FRONT ENTERING SE GA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT...CROSSING NE FL FRIDAY
MORNING... EXITING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY AFTN. WILL USE
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS NE FL WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
BE AND LIKELY POPS IN SE GA. STILL ALSO APPEARS JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT SEVERE STORMS NOT
EXPECTED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NE FL (HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE SE) TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS INLAND SE GA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

PRECIP WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SKIES
CLEARING BY THE OVERNIGHT AREA WIDE. COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S INLAND...WITH 45-50 COAST. IN ADDITION...WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE
30S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. MOSTLY SUNNY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE THEM WEAKENING
SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SE GA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF NE FL. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG WILL LOWER THE VSBY TO OCNL VLIFR AT JAX AND
POSSIBLY AT VQQ WITH MOSTLY OCNL IFR ELSEWHERE TIL AROUND 14Z-15Z.
OTHERWISE PREVAILING WITH VCSH AT MOST TERMINALS AFT 18Z. VCTS MAY
BE NEEDED AT THE FL SITES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SE ...A STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE WATERS. THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS FRIDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LINGERING EAST SWELLS WARRANTS A CONTINUED MODERATE
RISK. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL DOWNGRADE THE RISK TO LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  62  67  40 /  40  50  60   0
SSI  75  62  70  45 /  40  40  70  10
JAX  81  63  73  45 /  40  40  80  10
SGJ  79  64  73  47 /  40  40  80  10
GNV  83  64  74  46 /  40  40  80  10
OCF  84  65  75  45 /  40  50  80  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ZA




000
FXUS62 KJAX 260029
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
829 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015


.UPDATE...WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVED INTO SE GA TODAY WITH SKIES
CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS NE FL/SE GA THIS AFTERNOON. EAST
COAST SEABREEZE HAS MOVED INLAND PAST I-95 AND THE ST. JOHNS
RIVER WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS ALONG THE EAST COAST. MODELS SHOW
FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG NOT LIKELY AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS INCREASING JUST ABOVE SURFACE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT STRATUS WITH LIGHT FOG TO
PREVAIL BY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S INLAND AND
LOWER 60S NEAR COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AREAS
OF IFR OR MVFR CIGS OR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG SUGGESTED BY MODEL
GUIDANCE. MAINTAINED POTENTIAL FOR 1-2SM IN FOG TOWARD DAWN.
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AFTER PATCHY FOG
DISSIPATES.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT SE WINDS WILL BECOME SW BY MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2
TO 4 FEET.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK BECOMING LOW RISK THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  80  62  69 /  10  40  50  60
SSI  58  74  63  71 /  10  40  40  60
JAX  56  81  64  76 /  10  40  40  70
SGJ  62  79  65  75 /  10  30  40  70
GNV  55  84  65  76 /  10  40  40  70
OCF  56  85  66  77 /  10  30  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/WOLF/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KJAX 260029
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
829 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015


.UPDATE...WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVED INTO SE GA TODAY WITH SKIES
CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS NE FL/SE GA THIS AFTERNOON. EAST
COAST SEABREEZE HAS MOVED INLAND PAST I-95 AND THE ST. JOHNS
RIVER WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS ALONG THE EAST COAST. MODELS SHOW
FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG NOT LIKELY AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS INCREASING JUST ABOVE SURFACE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT STRATUS WITH LIGHT FOG TO
PREVAIL BY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S INLAND AND
LOWER 60S NEAR COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AREAS
OF IFR OR MVFR CIGS OR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG SUGGESTED BY MODEL
GUIDANCE. MAINTAINED POTENTIAL FOR 1-2SM IN FOG TOWARD DAWN.
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AFTER PATCHY FOG
DISSIPATES.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT SE WINDS WILL BECOME SW BY MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2
TO 4 FEET.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK BECOMING LOW RISK THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  80  62  69 /  10  40  50  60
SSI  58  74  63  71 /  10  40  40  60
JAX  56  81  64  76 /  10  40  40  70
SGJ  62  79  65  75 /  10  30  40  70
GNV  55  84  65  76 /  10  40  40  70
OCF  56  85  66  77 /  10  30  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/WOLF/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 260029
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
829 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015


.UPDATE...WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVED INTO SE GA TODAY WITH SKIES
CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS NE FL/SE GA THIS AFTERNOON. EAST
COAST SEABREEZE HAS MOVED INLAND PAST I-95 AND THE ST. JOHNS
RIVER WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS ALONG THE EAST COAST. MODELS SHOW
FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG NOT LIKELY AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS INCREASING JUST ABOVE SURFACE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT STRATUS WITH LIGHT FOG TO
PREVAIL BY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S INLAND AND
LOWER 60S NEAR COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AREAS
OF IFR OR MVFR CIGS OR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG SUGGESTED BY MODEL
GUIDANCE. MAINTAINED POTENTIAL FOR 1-2SM IN FOG TOWARD DAWN.
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AFTER PATCHY FOG
DISSIPATES.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT SE WINDS WILL BECOME SW BY MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2
TO 4 FEET.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK BECOMING LOW RISK THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  80  62  69 /  10  40  50  60
SSI  58  74  63  71 /  10  40  40  60
JAX  56  81  64  76 /  10  40  40  70
SGJ  62  79  65  75 /  10  30  40  70
GNV  55  84  65  76 /  10  40  40  70
OCF  56  85  66  77 /  10  30  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/WOLF/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 251957
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE
THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT
THIS POINT...PLACING PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST CLEARING OCCURS OF CURRENT CLOUD COVER...AND HOW FAST NEXT
AREA OF CLOUDS MOVES IN...FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT AREA OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS DISTURBANCE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK OF THIS WAVE WOULD PUT MOST OF THE SYSTEMS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TONIGHT...EXCEPT WARMER
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
EXPECTED. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL KEEP AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN PLACE FOR OUR
WESTERN LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING
TO HIGH END CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL
LOCATIONS AS ACTIVITY COINCIDES WITH MAXIMUM HEATING AND A ROBUST
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST WIND FIELD PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY IN THE COASTAL
COUNTIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS NEAR 70 FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA...WITH MID/UPPER 70S
FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTHEAST GA...WITH
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH TOTALS FOR NORTHEAST FL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPART COASTAL LOCATIONS BY SUNSET
FRI NIGHT...WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FILTERING INTO OUR REGION
WITH CLEARING SKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 10-15
MPH RANGE...MAKING LOWS FALLING INTO THE 40S FEEL EVEN COLDER. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES. DESPITE
FULL SUNSHINE...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW LATE MARCH CLIMO...GENERALLY IN THE
60-65 RANGE REGION-WIDE. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY RELAX SAT NIGHT...KEEPING NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS IN
THE 5-10 MPH RANGE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA TO THE UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SENDING A FEW REINFORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUN...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 60S REGION-WIDE
FOR ONE MORE AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS SUN NIGHT
WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO THE 40S AREA-WIDE. MODERATION BEGINS
MONDAY AS TROUGHING ALOFT EXITS THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS CLIMO...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BOOSTING
HIGHS INTO THE 70S. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
AT INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER
WEAK BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH NEAR CLIMO HIGHS CONTINUING. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
RISE...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80 INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S
AT THE COAST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INLAND AS SEA BREEZES
BECOME ACTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS AT
AREA TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE DISSIPATES JUST NORTH OF AREA WATERS THIS
EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA WATERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES TONIGHT...LIKELY BECOMING
LOW ON THURSDAY AS OCEAN SWELLS GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
AND INLAND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AND STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THIS
WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  80  62  69 /  10  40  50  60
SSI  58  74  63  71 /  10  40  40  60
JAX  56  81  64  76 /  10  40  40  70
SGJ  62  79  65  75 /  10  30  40  70
GNV  55  84  65  76 /  10  40  40  70
OCF  56  85  66  77 /  10  30  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/NELSON/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 251957
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE
THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT
THIS POINT...PLACING PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST CLEARING OCCURS OF CURRENT CLOUD COVER...AND HOW FAST NEXT
AREA OF CLOUDS MOVES IN...FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT AREA OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS DISTURBANCE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK OF THIS WAVE WOULD PUT MOST OF THE SYSTEMS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TONIGHT...EXCEPT WARMER
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
EXPECTED. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL KEEP AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN PLACE FOR OUR
WESTERN LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING
TO HIGH END CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL
LOCATIONS AS ACTIVITY COINCIDES WITH MAXIMUM HEATING AND A ROBUST
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST WIND FIELD PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY IN THE COASTAL
COUNTIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS NEAR 70 FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA...WITH MID/UPPER 70S
FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTHEAST GA...WITH
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH TOTALS FOR NORTHEAST FL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPART COASTAL LOCATIONS BY SUNSET
FRI NIGHT...WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FILTERING INTO OUR REGION
WITH CLEARING SKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 10-15
MPH RANGE...MAKING LOWS FALLING INTO THE 40S FEEL EVEN COLDER. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES. DESPITE
FULL SUNSHINE...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW LATE MARCH CLIMO...GENERALLY IN THE
60-65 RANGE REGION-WIDE. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY RELAX SAT NIGHT...KEEPING NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS IN
THE 5-10 MPH RANGE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA TO THE UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SENDING A FEW REINFORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUN...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 60S REGION-WIDE
FOR ONE MORE AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS SUN NIGHT
WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO THE 40S AREA-WIDE. MODERATION BEGINS
MONDAY AS TROUGHING ALOFT EXITS THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS CLIMO...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BOOSTING
HIGHS INTO THE 70S. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
AT INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER
WEAK BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH NEAR CLIMO HIGHS CONTINUING. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
RISE...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80 INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S
AT THE COAST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INLAND AS SEA BREEZES
BECOME ACTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS AT
AREA TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE DISSIPATES JUST NORTH OF AREA WATERS THIS
EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA WATERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES TONIGHT...LIKELY BECOMING
LOW ON THURSDAY AS OCEAN SWELLS GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
AND INLAND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AND STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THIS
WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  80  62  69 /  10  40  50  60
SSI  58  74  63  71 /  10  40  40  60
JAX  56  81  64  76 /  10  40  40  70
SGJ  62  79  65  75 /  10  30  40  70
GNV  55  84  65  76 /  10  40  40  70
OCF  56  85  66  77 /  10  30  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/NELSON/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 251957
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE
THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT
THIS POINT...PLACING PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST CLEARING OCCURS OF CURRENT CLOUD COVER...AND HOW FAST NEXT
AREA OF CLOUDS MOVES IN...FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT AREA OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS DISTURBANCE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK OF THIS WAVE WOULD PUT MOST OF THE SYSTEMS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TONIGHT...EXCEPT WARMER
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
EXPECTED. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL KEEP AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN PLACE FOR OUR
WESTERN LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING
TO HIGH END CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL
LOCATIONS AS ACTIVITY COINCIDES WITH MAXIMUM HEATING AND A ROBUST
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST WIND FIELD PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY IN THE COASTAL
COUNTIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS NEAR 70 FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA...WITH MID/UPPER 70S
FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTHEAST GA...WITH
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH TOTALS FOR NORTHEAST FL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPART COASTAL LOCATIONS BY SUNSET
FRI NIGHT...WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FILTERING INTO OUR REGION
WITH CLEARING SKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 10-15
MPH RANGE...MAKING LOWS FALLING INTO THE 40S FEEL EVEN COLDER. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES. DESPITE
FULL SUNSHINE...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW LATE MARCH CLIMO...GENERALLY IN THE
60-65 RANGE REGION-WIDE. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY RELAX SAT NIGHT...KEEPING NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS IN
THE 5-10 MPH RANGE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA TO THE UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SENDING A FEW REINFORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUN...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 60S REGION-WIDE
FOR ONE MORE AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS SUN NIGHT
WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO THE 40S AREA-WIDE. MODERATION BEGINS
MONDAY AS TROUGHING ALOFT EXITS THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS CLIMO...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BOOSTING
HIGHS INTO THE 70S. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
AT INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER
WEAK BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH NEAR CLIMO HIGHS CONTINUING. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
RISE...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80 INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S
AT THE COAST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INLAND AS SEA BREEZES
BECOME ACTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS AT
AREA TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE DISSIPATES JUST NORTH OF AREA WATERS THIS
EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA WATERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES TONIGHT...LIKELY BECOMING
LOW ON THURSDAY AS OCEAN SWELLS GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
AND INLAND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AND STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THIS
WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  80  62  69 /  10  40  50  60
SSI  58  74  63  71 /  10  40  40  60
JAX  56  81  64  76 /  10  40  40  70
SGJ  62  79  65  75 /  10  30  40  70
GNV  55  84  65  76 /  10  40  40  70
OCF  56  85  66  77 /  10  30  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/NELSON/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KJAX 251957
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE
THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT
THIS POINT...PLACING PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST CLEARING OCCURS OF CURRENT CLOUD COVER...AND HOW FAST NEXT
AREA OF CLOUDS MOVES IN...FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT AREA OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS DISTURBANCE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK OF THIS WAVE WOULD PUT MOST OF THE SYSTEMS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TONIGHT...EXCEPT WARMER
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
EXPECTED. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL KEEP AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN PLACE FOR OUR
WESTERN LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING
TO HIGH END CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL
LOCATIONS AS ACTIVITY COINCIDES WITH MAXIMUM HEATING AND A ROBUST
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST WIND FIELD PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY IN THE COASTAL
COUNTIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS NEAR 70 FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA...WITH MID/UPPER 70S
FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTHEAST GA...WITH
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH TOTALS FOR NORTHEAST FL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPART COASTAL LOCATIONS BY SUNSET
FRI NIGHT...WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FILTERING INTO OUR REGION
WITH CLEARING SKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 10-15
MPH RANGE...MAKING LOWS FALLING INTO THE 40S FEEL EVEN COLDER. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES. DESPITE
FULL SUNSHINE...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW LATE MARCH CLIMO...GENERALLY IN THE
60-65 RANGE REGION-WIDE. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY RELAX SAT NIGHT...KEEPING NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS IN
THE 5-10 MPH RANGE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA TO THE UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SENDING A FEW REINFORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUN...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 60S REGION-WIDE
FOR ONE MORE AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS SUN NIGHT
WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO THE 40S AREA-WIDE. MODERATION BEGINS
MONDAY AS TROUGHING ALOFT EXITS THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS CLIMO...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BOOSTING
HIGHS INTO THE 70S. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
AT INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER
WEAK BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH NEAR CLIMO HIGHS CONTINUING. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
RISE...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80 INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S
AT THE COAST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INLAND AS SEA BREEZES
BECOME ACTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS AT
AREA TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE DISSIPATES JUST NORTH OF AREA WATERS THIS
EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA WATERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES TONIGHT...LIKELY BECOMING
LOW ON THURSDAY AS OCEAN SWELLS GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
AND INLAND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AND STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THIS
WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  80  62  69 /  10  40  50  60
SSI  58  74  63  71 /  10  40  40  60
JAX  56  81  64  76 /  10  40  40  70
SGJ  62  79  65  75 /  10  30  40  70
GNV  55  84  65  76 /  10  40  40  70
OCF  56  85  66  77 /  10  30  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/NELSON/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KJAX 251327
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
927 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...

SURFACE WAVE WILL DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN ALLOWING BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. INCREASING SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...

AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE
REGION CLOUDS WILL LIFT. A TREND TOWARD VFR IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  56  82  61 /  20  20  30  50
SSI  72  59  77  63 /  20  20  20  20
JAX  78  58  84  68 /  20  20  20  20
SGJ  74  63  81  67 /  20  20  20  20
GNV  82  58  85  65 /  20  20  20  30
OCF  83  58  86  66 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE





000
FXUS62 KJAX 251327
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
927 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...

SURFACE WAVE WILL DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN ALLOWING BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. INCREASING SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...

AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE
REGION CLOUDS WILL LIFT. A TREND TOWARD VFR IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  56  82  61 /  20  20  30  50
SSI  72  59  77  63 /  20  20  20  20
JAX  78  58  84  68 /  20  20  20  20
SGJ  74  63  81  67 /  20  20  20  20
GNV  82  58  85  65 /  20  20  20  30
OCF  83  58  86  66 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE




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